tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/solar-power-296/articlesSolar power – The Conversation2024-03-28T05:51:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268092024-03-28T05:51:32Z2024-03-28T05:51:32ZCould spending a billion dollars actually bring solar manufacturing back to Australia? It’s worth a shot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584924/original/file-20240328-21-3cqu7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5104%2C2866&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-view-solar-panel-assembly-line-2204939257">IM Imagery/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">announced today</a> it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those in the solar industry, and guarding against supply chain shocks and geopolitical tension. </p>
<p>The announcement is big. At a stroke, the federal government is proposing to directly invest in manufacturing the main technology Australia will rely on to make its power. By 2050, solar should provide most of our electricity – but only if we have enough panels. </p>
<p>What would that look like? Australia was once a world leader in solar energy technology. But while our solar researchers are still highly regarded, we only have one company commercially manufacturing solar panels. That means the SunShot program will likely start by boosting efforts to make modules here using imported cells and module components, before building out the supply chain to make glass for the panels, aluminium frames and, eventually, the solar photovoltaic cells themselves and the pure polysilicon needed to make them. </p>
<p>If we had a solar manufacturing industry able to make a gigawatt’s worth of panels annually, we <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-bank/apvi-silicon-to-solar-detailed-and-overview-reports/">would create</a> around 750 jobs and meet about 20% of our current demand for solar. More jobs would come as the ecosystem grows, including manufacturing glass and aluminium frames. </p>
<p>Critics will say it’s pointless to compete with China’s dominant renewable energy industry. But as climate change worsens and global efforts to go green intensify, we can’t rely on a single country. The backdrop, of course, is the increasing popularity of <a href="https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/what-is-onshoring/">reshoring</a>, where Western countries use public funding to try to bring back manufacturing from nations such as China, as the United States is aiming to do with its <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">mammoth Inflation Reduction Act</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<h2>Can we compete with cheap panels?</h2>
<p>In 1983, UNSW professor Martin Green invented the first PERC solar cell (which stands for Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact). <a href="https://solarmagazine.com/solar-panels/perc-solar-panels/">This cell</a> was better at converting sunlight to electricity than previous cells. His invention is now in use in about 90% of the world’s installed solar panels.</p>
<p>Australian researchers have long been at the forefront of solar development. But where we’ve struggled is in commercialisation and manufacturing. The world’s first solar billionaire, Shi Zhengrong, did his PhD at UNSW before returning to his native China <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/eric-knight-shi-zhengrong-sun-king-eric-knight-3363">to found</a> the multinational solar giant SunTech. Even now, many of China’s top solar firms have connections with Australian researchers. </p>
<p>China became dominant in renewables not simply because of its enormous domestic market and a deep manufacturing base. The Chinese government has long funded solar firms to make their products more competitive. </p>
<p>That’s where Australia’s SunShot would come in, by helping to create the market of suppliers needed to make solar panel manufacturing a reality.</p>
<p>Australia wouldn’t be trying to go for global market share, but rather to substitute its own imports. Currently, only about 1% of the millions of panels we install annually are made in Australia. Even so, as the solar industry surges worldwide, there may well be room for more entrants. </p>
<h2>What would Australian solar manufacturing look like?</h2>
<p>We can’t run before we can walk. Bringing manufacturing back won’t happen overnight. Today’s announcement is short on detail. But we know it draws on work done last year by the Australian PV Institute in a report titled <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/silicon-to-solar-plan-australias-manufacturing-opportunities/">Silicon to Solar</a>, which this article’s lead author worked on. </p>
<p>Realistically, what we’ll have to start with is working with our single existing solar panel manufacturer, Tindo, as well as boosting other market entrants such as the startup SunDrive.</p>
<p>Tindo doesn’t make solar panels from scratch. Instead, it imports cells from overseas and assembles them into modules. </p>
<p>The first step, then, is to grow the market for Australian-made modules using imported products. This is the quickest step in the supply chain to establish.</p>
<p>Then we can begin helping suppliers of other components, such as the special glass to cover the panels, and the aluminium frames. </p>
<p>The next step would be to establish solar cell production lines in Australia and scale them to meet the demand from our own module production lines.</p>
<p>We could then move to the next challenge, turning silicon ingots into the wafers used for cells. Establishing these capabilities in Australia might allow Australia to export these materials to other markets such as the US and Europe.</p>
<p>The final step – and one that will take years and more investment, even if we start planning now – would be to have our own polysilicon factories. A multibillion-dollar factory near Townsville is being planned, with support from the <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/25/quinbrook-to-build-polysilicon-factory-in-australia/">Queensland government</a>.</p>
<p>Turning lower-grade metallurgical silicon into 99.9999% pure polysilicon is hard and expensive. You can’t build a small polysilicon factory – scale is important. But it can be done. The size of the factory needed means most of the polysilicon it produces will need to be exported to regions like the US and Europe. We could begin to substitute polysilicon for exports of coal and gas.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar production line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Building up our solar manufacturing capabilities will take many steps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/automated-production-line-modern-solar-silicon-47536699">06photo/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What are the benefits?</h2>
<p>The government will <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">spruik jobs</a> in the regions, especially where retiring coal plants such as Liddell in New South Wales will take jobs with them. </p>
<p>But there are other benefits. We could take better advantage of the talent and research knowhow in Australia to begin building next-generation cells. </p>
<p>If we can kickstart a viable solar industry, it would help us unlock other parts of the green economy. Cheap and plentiful solar power could make it viable to crack water to make green hydrogen or make green steel and aluminium. </p>
<p>Many of these initiatives have to be set in train now to gain the benefits in five or ten years’ time. Today’s announcement is just the start. But in a sun-drenched country, it makes sense to aim for the skies. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-just-laid-out-a-radical-new-vision-for-australia-in-the-region-clean-energy-exporter-and-green-manufacturer-186815">Albanese just laid out a radical new vision for Australia in the region: clean energy exporter and green manufacturer</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Hallam is a senior consultant for ITP renewables and was involved in the ARENA Silicon to Solar report.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiacre Rougieux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What would it mean to bring solar manufacturing back on shore in Australia?Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW SydneyFiacre Rougieux, Senior Lecturer, Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2164232024-03-12T12:30:14Z2024-03-12T12:30:14ZSolar power occupies a lot of space – here’s how to make it more ecologically beneficial to the land it sits on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580757/original/file-20240308-22-g0m361.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3019%2C1783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels shade grassland at Jack's Solar Garden, an agrovoltaic farm in Longmont, Colo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As societies look for ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and slow climate change, large-scale solar power is playing a central role. Climate scientists view it as the tool with <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">the greatest potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2030</a>. In the U.S., the Department of Energy predicts that solar will <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424">account for nearly 60%</a> of all new utility-scale electricity-generating capacity installed in 2024. </p>
<p><iframe id="k06YW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/k06YW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But ideal locations for solar development often overlap with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47803-3">croplands or grasslands used for livestock grazing</a>. Typically, large-scale solar arrays are designed to maximize energy generation, without much consideration for the ecosystems in which they are placed. </p>
<p>For example, grading land and removing vegetation can <a href="https://www.popsci.com/environment/solar-farm-construction-epa-water-violations/">cause erosion and send runoff into waterways</a>. Solar developers have been fined for such environmental violations in <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/05/10/u-s-court-orders-developer-to-pay-135-5-million-in-100-mw-solar-property-damage-case/">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://www.gazettenet.com/Developer-to-pay-$1-14-million-for-wetlands-stormwater-violations-38651958#">Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/settlements-resolve-clean-water-act-violations-four-solar-farm-construction-sites-alabama">Alabama, Idaho and Illinois</a>. </p>
<p>There also are concerns about how large solar installations affect <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/11/climate/climate-change-wildlife-solar.html">animal movement patterns</a>. In the western U.S., removing native vegetation to make room for solar farms can threaten endangered animals and insects that rely on these plants as food and habitat. Native plant communities take a long time to reestablish themselves in these water-limited areas after they are disturbed.</p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Oyns6e8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">an ecologist</a> and a member of a research team led by <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=e5RTvRMAAAAJ&hl=en">Alan Knapp</a> at Colorado State University. We investigate how solar development affects grassland ecosystem health – in particular, how plants’ growth and water use patterns and response to light change once solar panels are installed overhead. Through this work, we hope to inform a more sustainable future for solar energy. </p>
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<span class="caption">This agrivoltaic solar array uses the space between rows of panels to grow tomatoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Two land uses are better than one</h2>
<p>A growing alternative to using land solely for solar power generation is called agrivoltaics. As its name suggests, this strategy combines agriculture and solar power on the same piece of land. Agrivoltaic projects can take place on croplands, grazing lands and habitat for agriculturally important pollinators. This dual-use approach to solar development <a href="https://science.osti.gov/-/media/sbir/pdf/Market-Research/SETO---Agrivoltaics-August-2022-Public.pdf">has become popular worldwide</a></p>
<p>The <a href="https://openei.org/wiki/InSPIRE/Agrivoltaics_Map">vast majority</a> of agrivoltaic projects in the U.S. are on lands managed for livestock grazing and pollinator habitat. These sites are ideal for solar power colocation because, unlike croplands, they do not require irrigation or the use of large machinery. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">One version of agrivoltaics is combining solar arrays and livestock grazing.</span></figcaption>
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<p>However, these lands rely on rainfall to support plant growth, and the presence of solar panels affects how water reaches the soil. Most agrivoltaic arrays use sun-tracking programs that maximize energy production by tilting panels to follow the sun across the sky. As this happens, the panels create distinct micro-environments that are quite different from natural conditions. </p>
<p>For example, in Colorado, most precipitation occurs in the afternoon, when solar panels are tilted west toward the sun. As a result, most rainfall on agrivoltaic sites is concentrated at the panels’ western edges where it drops to the ground. This redistribution can multiply rainfall at panel edges by up to a factor of four, while restricting rainfall in other patches. </p>
<p>Another factor is that solar panels introduce shade on grasslands that are adapted to high light conditions. Because the arrays are optimized to intercept sunlight, much less light reaches plants beneath the panels.</p>
<h2>The ecology behind ecovoltaics</h2>
<p>So far, our work shows that the distinct micro-environments created by solar arrays produce similarly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4334">varied patterns of plant growth</a>. This finding is encouraging: It means that the environmental variation created by solar panels passively tracking the sun is enough to make plants respond differently. These micro-environments could potentially support a mosaic of plant communities that benefit from different conditions.</p>
<p>In some cases, mixed conditions like these, with varying levels of light and water, can be a good thing. A well-tested concept in restoration ecology – the science of restoring damaged ecosystems – is that environments with more variety support more diverse mixes of plants and animals.</p>
<p>In a 2023 paper, we outlined a concept that calls for an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02174-x">ecologically informed approach to solar development</a>. This approach, called ecovoltaics, requires giving equal priority to energy production and <a href="https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/ecosystem-services">ecosystem services</a>. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach allows land managers to use solar to their advantage. Designing and managing solar arrays in ways that are rooted in fundamental ecological concepts can produce more synergies between ecosystems and solar energy.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram showing ways to space rows of solar panels, alter their angles or adjust height to achieve various ecological outcomes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580834/original/file-20240310-26-auaqrp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Ecovoltaic systems can be configured in different ways to achieve specific ecological goals, such as reducing water loss from soil or creating shady zones for grazing livestock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Sturchio</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Land managers could use ecovoltaic approaches to improve degraded lands by designing solar arrays to enhance natural processes. For example, since the edges of solar panels redistribute and concentrate rainfall, making the soil beneath them wetter, they could aid in seedling establishment in those spots. </p>
<p>In arid regions, arrays could be designed to promote this effect and improve restoration. If water is scarce, arrays could be designed to reduce the amount of exposed ground, which in turn would reduce the amount of water lost to the atmosphere through evaporation. </p>
<h2>Doing solar differently</h2>
<p>Many factors influence land management decisions. The land’s history, access to water, soil types, vegetation and topography all play a role. Ecovoltaics adds another factor: balancing energy production per unit area with the ecological effects of a particular solar array. </p>
<p>An ecovoltaic approach to solar power requires fundamentally rethinking how solar development decisions are made. Today, access to electricity transmission lines limits where solar power can be deployed in many areas. If transmission lines and substations are too far away, or undersized, solar power is unlikely to be developed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheetbiden-harris-administration-announces-historic-investment-to-bolster-nations-electric-grid-infrastructure-cut-energy-costs-for-families-and-create-good-paying-jobs/">New transmission projects</a> that ease this geographic constraint could provide more options. With greater flexibility in choosing sites, developers could shift away from highly sensitive natural ecosystems and install solar arrays on abandoned, water-limited or otherwise degraded lands instead. Ecovoltaics could be a solution for stabilizing the economy of communities where productive land has been <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-top-colorado-farming-region-is-running-out-of-water-must-retire-land-to-avoid-well-shutdown/ar-BB1jgzFe">retired to conserve resources</a></p>
<p>Solar power is scaling up to levels that make it central to a clean energy transition. My colleagues and I believe that solar development should proceed in a way that reflects ecological thinking. In our view, an ecovoltaic approach to solar can produce positive ecological outcomes and make solar energy even more sustainable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Sturchio receives funding from the US Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture.</span></em></p>Solar development isn’t always good for the land, but pairing it with agriculture can produce multiple benefits.Matthew Sturchio, PhD Student in Plant and Ecosystem Ecology, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208242024-03-08T14:35:38Z2024-03-08T14:35:38ZApril’s eclipse will mean interruptions in solar power generation, which could strain electrical grids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573902/original/file-20240206-16-om8k0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels in Brazil. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/7551d26521224cbf94340e255374a7a7?ext=true">AP Photo/Bruna Prado</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the most recent total solar eclipse visible in the U.S., on Aug. 21, 2017, the skies darkened as the Moon crossed in front of the Sun. It blocked out all sunlight – except for that from a golden ring visible around the Moon’s shape, called the corona. Not surprisingly, solar power generation across North America plummeted for several hours, from the first moment the Moon began to obscure the Sun to when the Sun’s disk was clear again. </p>
<p>On April 8, 2024, another <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-sun-goes-dark-5-questions-answered-about-the-solar-eclipse-81308">total solar eclipse</a> will track across the U.S., causing perhaps an even greater loss of solar power generation. Although this will be the second total solar eclipse visible in the U.S. in under seven years, these events are a rare occurrence. Nevertheless, they present a unique challenge to power grid operators.</p>
<p><a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/vahe-peroomian/">I am a space scientist</a> with a passion for teaching physics and astronomy. Though I have seen many partial eclipses of the Sun, I have yet to witness a total solar eclipse. My road trip to Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah in October 2023 to see the “ring of fire” <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-solar-eclipse-33019">annular solar eclipse</a> was unforgettable, and April 8 will surely find me handing out <a href="https://theconversation.com/turn-around-bright-eyes-heres-how-to-see-the-eclipse-and-protect-your-vision-203571">eclipse glasses</a> once again.</p>
<h2>When the Moon’s shadow blocks the Sun</h2>
<p>During <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-solar-eclipse-33019">a solar eclipse</a>, the Moon partially or completely blocks the view of the Sun. Since the Moon is nearly 400 times smaller than the Sun and nearly <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/17109/the-sun-and-the-moon/">400 times closer</a>, the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/02/08/the-strangest-eclipse-fact-of-all-the-moons-shadow-isnt-a-circle/?sh=be76f8c17bd3">Moon’s shadow</a>, visible from Earth, tapers to a width of <a href="https://cmase.uark.edu/_resources/pdf/nasa/NASAConnect/pathoftotality.pdf">70 to 100 miles</a> (112 to 161 kilometers).</p>
<p>Within this region, called the path of totality, observers see a total solar eclipse. Observers close to but outside this path witness a partial eclipse of the Sun, where the Moon covers a fraction of the Sun’s disk. </p>
<p>During the April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse, the <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/where-when/">path of totality</a> in the continental U.S. will extend from Texas in the south to Maine in the northeast. Elsewhere in the U.S., Miami will see a partial eclipse in which a maximum of 46% of the Sun’s disk is obscured. In Seattle, far from the path of totality, the Moon will cover only a maximum of <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2024-april-8">20% of the Sun</a>. In southern Texas, where the path of totality first crosses into the U.S., the eclipse will last just under three hours, with totality a mere 4 minutes and 27 seconds. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sOpYoO_SK7o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The path of the 2024 solar eclipse.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Increasing reliance on solar power</h2>
<p>The worldwide trend toward renewable energy has seen a significant increase in solar, or photovoltaic, power generation in the last decade. Solar power generation capacity is set to <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker">double worldwide</a> between 2022 and 2028, and the U.S. now has the capacity to generate <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">three times more solar energy</a> than at the time of the 2017 total solar eclipse.</p>
<p>The most obvious obstacle to solar power generation is cloud cover. On a cloudy day, the energy produced by solar panels drops to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/solar/solar-panels-cloudy-days-night/">10% to 25%</a> of its output on a sunny day. </p>
<p>The North American power transmission grid is divided into <a href="https://www.nerc.com/AboutNERC/keyplayers/Pages/default.aspx">six major regions</a> and <a href="https://alternativeenergy.procon.org/questions/what-is-the-electricity-grid/">more than 150</a> local and regional subgrids. Electrical system operators in each local grid continuously balance the amount of electricity production with the “load,” or the demand for electricity by consumers. </p>
<p>System operators can tap into energy from <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/power.htm">various power generation mechanisms</a> like solar, wind, hydroelectric, natural gas and coal. Local grids can also import and export electricity to and from their grid as needed.</p>
<p>System operators have accurate models for the amount of solar power generated across the U.S. on a daily basis, and these models account for the parts of the continental U.S. that may have cloudy skies. By pairing solar power generation with battery storage, they can access electricity from solar even when the Sun isn’t shining – on cloudy days or at night. </p>
<p>To plan for an eclipse, electrical system operators need to figure out how much the energy production will drop and how much power people will draw from the reserves. On the day of the 2017 total solar eclipse, for example, solar power generation in the U.S. <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">dropped 25%</a> below average. </p>
<p>Because solar power production falls quickly during the eclipse’s peak, grid operators may need to tap into reserves at a rate that may strain the <a href="https://www.osha.gov/etools/electric-power/illustrated-glossary/transmission-lines">electrical transmission lines</a>. To try to keep things running smoothly, grid operators will rely on local reserves and minimize power transfer <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">between grids</a> during the event. This should lessen the burden on transmission lines in local grids and prevent temporary blackouts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Electrical towers and power lines shown against a sunset." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar eclipses can stress the power grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInfrastructure/9a4ee5858ac74db78eb7d96b1961c275/photo?Query=power%20grid&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=226&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=17&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
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<h2>Renewable energy during eclipses</h2>
<p>Solar isn’t the only type of renewable energy generation that goes down during an eclipse. Since it’s not as sunny, temperatures along the path of the eclipse fall by as much as <a href="https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/temperature-change-during-totality">10 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (5.5 degrees Celsius). Lower temperatures lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx135">slower wind speeds</a> and less wind power generation. </p>
<p>During the August 2017 eclipse, the loss of renewable power generation added up to nearly <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">6 gigawatts</a>. That’s equivalent to the energy usage of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-much-power-1-gigawatt">600 million LED lightbulbs</a> or <a href="https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/gigawatt-the-solar-energy-term-you-should-know-about/">4.5 million homes</a>. </p>
<p>Grid operators compensated by planning ahead and increasing power generation at <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">natural gas and coal-powered plants</a>, which don’t depend on sunlight. </p>
<p>Over the duration of the eclipse, this increase in nonrenewable energy use led to approximately <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11">10 million pounds</a> of extra carbon dioxide emissions. That’s about the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 1,000 cars.</p>
<p>On April 8, <a href="https://theconversation.com/astro-tourism-chasing-eclipses-meteor-showers-and-elusive-dark-skies-from-earth-207969">eyes across the U.S. will turn upward</a> to catch a glimpse of the eclipsed Sun.</p>
<p>Thanks to the vigilance of electric grid operators, the lights should stay on, and observers won’t have to worry about anything but the stunning show in the sky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vahe Peroomian has, in the past, received basic research funding from NASA and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>When the Moon blocks the Sun during an eclipse, utility suppliers have to pull power from the grid to make up for gaps in solar energy.Vahe Peroomian, Professor of Physics and Astronomy, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210182024-01-22T23:25:32Z2024-01-22T23:25:32ZHow Australia’s huge superannuation funds can do much more to fight climate change, with a little help<p>Few of us pay much attention to our superannuation. Under the <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/pay-and-wages/tax-and-superannuation#super-guarantee">Superannuation Guarantee</a>, employers pay at least 11% of salaries into their employees’ super funds without workers having to do anything.</p>
<p>These accumulating automatic payments have turned the Australian super fund industry into one of the world’s largest, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/wall-street-is-partnering-with-cashed-up-fast-growing-australian-pension-funds">the fastest-growing</a>. Worth $A3.5 trillion, our superfunds sit alongside funds from Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and United States to make up <a href="https://www.thinkingaheadinstitute.org/research-papers/global-pension-assets-study-2023/">92% of total global pension assets.</a></p>
<p>But none of these funds are investing enough in the net zero transition. Institutional investors, of which super funds are a vital part, provided less than 1% of all direct private climate change finance globally in <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023/">2021/2022</a>- a contribution of around $US6 billion. This is far from the trillions <a href="https://www.allenovery.com/en-gb/global/news-and-insights/news/new-study-reveals-usd200-trillion-of-investment-will-be-needed-to-deliver-net-zero">needed</a> every year to finance renewable energy projects, cleaner industrial processes, and replacing fossil fuels in transport, among other initiatives.</p>
<p>At the same time, many Australian funds continue to invest in carbon-producing companies, such as oil and gas, even when they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-14/sustainable-ethical-super-funds-with-fossil-fuel-investment/103196032">claim to be making “green” investments</a>.</p>
<p>This article outlines reforms the federal government could undertake to encourage super funds to tackle the climate crisis. This would help align the super system with its original purpose: to provide a better standard of living for the millions of us who will retire on a climate-damaged planet.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s sustainable finance plan</h2>
<p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers is aware of the unmet potential of super funds. Treasury’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Sustainable Finance Strategy</a>, released in November, outlines measures underway or in development to enable more sustainable investment. The <a href="https://www.asfi.org.au/taxonomy">Australian Sustainable Finance Taxonomy</a>, for example, helps investors and regulators to identify whether an investment is “green”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Making money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy</a>
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<p>Last month <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/investor-roundtable-help-modernise-economy-maximise-advantages">Chalmers held</a> an “Investor Roundtable” that brought together heads of superannuation funds and others to discuss how to scale up investment in climate change.</p>
<p>Funds expressed their intent to make more investments aligned with net zero. <a href="https://www.rightlane.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Right-Lane-Consulting_May-2023_Staying-the-course-on-net-zero.pdf">Studies</a> consistently show most large Australian funds have pledged to support net zero and established investment targets. Yet they say several regulatory roadblocks hinder them from turning their commitments into action.</p>
<p>The government has said it will make reforms on one roadblock – the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">funds’ performance-testing framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Why super funds rarely invest in clean energy</h2>
<p>Because superannuation funds are <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/word_doc/0011/4609586/MCF-submission_31032023.docx">required by law</a> to invest retirement savings for the best return for their members, they give preference to investments that offer the best financial returns with the lowest level of risk.</p>
<p>Funds see companies that are developing and deploying new technologies or operating in areas of significant public policy change as higher risk. That’s a big reason why new green technologies struggle to attract institutional capital compared to those based on fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<p>Super funds <a href="https://igcc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IGCC-The-State-of-Australian-Net-Zero-Investment_March2023.pdf">consistently note in annual surveys</a> that the lack of green investment opportunities with the right risk-adjusted return profile is a huge barrier to exapanding climate-aligned investment. And recent legislative changes have made the situation worse.</p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/your-future-your-super-legislation-and-supporting-material">Your Super Your Future</a> scheme, announced in the 2020-21 Budget, the financial regulator for super funds evaluates funds each year by comparing their performance over an eight-year time period against one of 11 “benchmark” investment portfolios.</p>
<p>This process aims to weed out underachieving funds and to protect members from losing money. Funds that are found to underperform must disclose the fact to their members, and persistent failures cannot accept new member funds. This tough sanction has led funds to “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-04/c2022-313936-yfys-review.docx">hug the benchmark</a>”, meaning they pursue investment strategies to beat the performance test and their peers.</p>
<p>The result, as studies <a href="https://theconexusinstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/YFYS-Performance-Test-Constraint-on-ESG-Sustainability-and-Carbon-Transition-Activities-20221109-Final.pdf">show</a>, is that funds are discouraged from pursuing climate-related investments. The test encourages funds to invest in companies or projects that deliver returns over time frames that are too short for most climate-related investments to achieve returns.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>Treasury has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">announced</a> it will extend the performance test period to ten years, and adjust it “to ensure that funds are not unintentionally discouraged from investing in certain assets”. These are encouraging first steps but they are not enough.</p>
<h2>Letting ordinary fund members invest in a greener planet</h2>
<p>Melbourne Climate Futures’ <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/centres/mcle/research/current-research-projects/advancing-investor-action-on-energy-transition">research</a> has uncovered further regulatory barriers that are stalling investment. One relates to the way individual members choose investments.</p>
<p>Since its establishment by the Keating government in 1992, the Superannuation Guarantee has given individuals some choice over how they handle their superannuation. While many <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/businesses-and-organisations/super-for-employers/setting-up-super-for-your-business/select-your-default-super-fund">are placed into a fund</a> with a default investment option when they begin work, they are able to choose different investment approaches.</p>
<p>Some of these focus on a theme, such as sustainability, and some offer different levels of risk exposure. Encouraging individuals to direct more of their super to green companies and projects could be a powerful tool to enable more climate investment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Surveys show <a href="https://responsibleinvestment.org/resources/benchmark-report/#:%7E:text=The%20Responsible%20Investment%20Benchmark%20Report,comprehensive%20approach%20to%20responsible%20investment.">more than half of Australians</a> support greater climate action. While many people would not support their super fund making climate investments that hurt their returns, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/super-should-go-green-but-not-for-lower-returns-say-afr-readers-20231210-p5eqcr">at least some members</a> would. Yet the rigid nature of the best-financial-interest duty, combined with the performance test, prevents funds from offering members the option to put the climate first.</p>
<p>This needs to change. The government could amend the best-financial-interest duty so individuals can instruct their funds to invest their money in projects that reduce long-term and systemic financial risks such as climate change. A tax break or a matching contribution from government could also encourage individuals to choose sustainable investment options.</p>
<p>Climate change poses a grave risk to the health, wellbeing and finances of all Australians, including retirees. Federal policy reform is urgently needed to unlock more superannuation for green investment, harness the power and preferences of individual members and help reduce future climate impacts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjuna Dibley is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development, a Board Member at CarbonPlan and Environmental Justice Australia. He is part of a research team at the University of Melbourne that receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study institutional investors and climate investing. </span></em></p>Our super funds say they want to invest more in the net zero transition but that regulation blocks them. It’s time to put them to the test, and turn their piles of money toward a greener future.Arjuna Dibley, Head of Sustainable Finance Hub, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205542024-01-11T17:24:22Z2024-01-11T17:24:22ZReflectors in space could make solar farms on Earth work for longer every day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568709/original/file-20240110-19-1lmnvi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1914%2C1077&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Viale (University of Glasgow)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you happened to be looking at the sky in Europe on a cold night on February 5 1993, there is a chance you could have seen a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/05/world/russia-s-mirror-in-space-reflects-the-light-of-the-sun-into-the-dark.html">dim flash of light</a>. That flash came from a Russian space mirror experiment called Znamya-2. </p>
<p>Znamya-2 was a 20-metre reflective structure much like aluminium foil (Znamya means “banner” in Russian), unfurled from a spacecraft which had just undocked from the Russian Mir space station. Its goal was to demonstrate solar energy could be reflected from space to Earth.</p>
<p>This was the first and only time that a mirror had ever been launched into space for that purpose. But, three decades on, colleagues and I believe it’s time to revisit this technology.</p>
<p>Unlike proposals to build <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-could-soon-be-getting-energy-from-solar-power-harvested-in-space-210203">solar power stations in space</a> and transmit energy down to earth, all the generation would still happen down here. Crucially, these reflectors could help solar farms generate electricity even when direct sunlight is not available, especially during evening and early morning hours when demand for clean energy is greatest. Colleagues and I call this concept “orbiting solar reflectors”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite with reflective material" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568695/original/file-20240110-19-jxskg5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Znamya-2 produced a 5km-wide bright spot that travelled across Europe from France to Russia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Znamya_(satellite)#/media/File:Znamya-2.jpg">RSC Energia (РКК </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Pioneering rocket scientist Hermann Oberth recognised the potential all the way back in 1929, when he <a href="https://ia600304.us.archive.org/24/items/nasa_techdoc_19720008133/19720008133.pdf">envisaged reflectors in space</a> relaying sunlight to illuminate large cities and ship routes. He predicted that these reflectors would be very large, thin and ultralightweight, and built in space by astronauts wearing diving suits. </p>
<p>Colleagues and I recently published a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117723003939">paper</a> in which we explored the possibility of orbiting solar reflectors in the near term. We think Oberth’s vision may now be achievable thanks to up-and-coming technologies such as robotic spacecraft that can manufacture and assemble structures in space. The reflectors and other materials necessary to build such large structures could be launched by modern rockets such as SpaceX’s colossal <a href="https://theconversation.com/spacex-launches-most-powerful-rocket-in-history-in-explosive-debut-like-many-first-liftoffs-starships-test-was-a-successful-failure-204248">Starship</a>.</p>
<p>Each time a reflector passes over a solar power farm, it could angle itself to illuminate the solar farm and its immediate surroundings. Each “pass” would extend the “day” of the solar farm and hence its hours of electricity generation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Reflectors in space bouncing sunlight down to earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568822/original/file-20240111-23-g19gjy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When the reflectors can see a large solar farm, they would steer themselves to redirect sunlight towards it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Viale, University of Glasgow; NASA (for Earth texture)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When the reflector can no longer illuminate the solar farm, it can be rotated such that it is edge-on to the Sun and no light is reflected to the ground. For this reason, we expect the potential disturbance to ground-based astronomical observations would be minimal.</p>
<h2>Illuminate a 10km area</h2>
<p>With the reflectors orbiting 900km above us – about twice the altitude of the International Space Station – we estimate that the illuminated area on the Earth would be approximately 10km across when at its brightest. Therefore, a system like this would not be aimed at individual rooftop solar panels but large solar power farms, typically located away from inhabited areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image of solar park in desert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568431/original/file-20240109-25-uisy1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Potential target? The vast Bhadla Solar Park in a desert in India is 14 km (8.7 miles) end to end.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.com/maps/@27.4967019,71.9634197,12445m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu">Google Maps</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Each pass would extend energy generation by about 15 to 20 minutes around the dawn or dusk hours. This is important because those hours are when electricity demand is the highest and often exceeds the amount being generated by wind and solar, meaning coal and gas power plants are used to compensate. Reflectors may therefore help abate fossil fuel use without needing to store energy during the day.</p>
<p>These reflectors would be high enough to service multiple solar farms on the same orbit. Their orbits could even be used to inform where to build new solar farms in especially sunny regions.</p>
<p>Our proposal uses hexagonal reflectors with sides 250 metres long. Each weighs about 3 tonnes. It would currently cost a few thousand US dollars per kilogram to launch something like this into space, though costs are on a downward trend. If costs are reduced to a few hundred US dollars per kilo, then we would expect orbiting reflectors to be viable within a few years.</p>
<p>We expect these reflectors to operate for 20 to 30 years, though the carbon footprint of a system such as this is hard to estimate since spacecraft generally take a long time to design, build and operate. Further research will be needed to produce a full lifecycle assessment, but in the long run, we expect the reflectors would help generate enough clean energy to outweigh their carbon footprint.</p>
<h2>No more nighttime?</h2>
<p>Three days after the news of the Znamya-2 experiment was published in the New York Times, a reader wrote to the editor wondering whether we would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/21/opinion/l-before-we-give-up-night-altogether-120193.html">give up our nights</a>. The short answer is no. </p>
<p>Even at its brightest, we estimate that the illumination levels would last only a few minutes per reflector and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721007936">not exceed an overcast day level</a>. This means that, unless you are very close to the solar power farm, the illumination may not even be noticeable most of the time, especially at dawn/dusk times when the sky is already quite bright compared to nighttime.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of earth and solar reflectors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568843/original/file-20240111-25-3vlapj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1929 sketch by Hermann Oberth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ia600304.us.archive.org/24/items/nasa_techdoc_19720008133/19720008133.pdf">Oberth / NASA / Internet Archive</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also estimate that the reflector itself would not be visible to the naked eye unless you are close to the solar farm. These estimations suggest that the impact of these reflectors on the natural environment around the solar power farm may also be minimal, though more research is necessary.</p>
<p>When the reflectors are old or no longer needed, they could <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-sail-through-space-on-sunbeams-solar-satellite-leads-the-way-42223">“sail” on sunlight</a> into less-congested higher orbits or into a lower orbit to burn up safely. </p>
<p>Orbiting solar reflectors are still some way off. But they represent a way to connect the space and energy sectors to help accelerate the transition towards clean energy and tackle climate change.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u1w-Ty-8Kfs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How this might work (Video: Andrea Viale, University of Glasgow)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220554/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Onur Çelik and his colleagues receive funding from European Research Council. He collaborated with Dr. Andrea Viale, Dr. Temitayo Oderinwale, Dr. Litesh Sulbhewar and Prof. Colin R. McInnes in the preparation of the article and on the SOLSPACE project. SOLSPACE project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 883730)</span></em></p>Proposed reflectors would help provide clean energy when demand peaks near dawn and dusk.Onur Çelik, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Space Technology, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2204582024-01-08T16:08:22Z2024-01-08T16:08:22ZGigantic solar farms of the future might impact how much solar power can be generated on the other side of the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568232/original/file-20240108-29-1u9uxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C5283%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-landscape-photovoltaic-solar-panel-1746395420">Kertu / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Sun’s energy is effectively limitless. While resources such as coal or gas are finite, if you are able to capture and use solar power it doesn’t prevent anyone else from also using as much sunshine as they need. </p>
<p>Except that isn’t quite the full story. Beyond a certain size, solar farms become large enough to affect the weather around them and ultimately the climate as a whole. In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">new research</a> we have looked at the effect such climate-altering solar farms might have on solar power production elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>We know that solar power is affected by weather conditions and output varies through the days and seasons. Clouds, rain, snow and fog can all block sunlight from reaching solar panels. On a cloudy day, output can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038092X04002373">drop by 75%</a>, while their efficiency also decreases at high temperatures.</p>
<p>In the long term, climate change could affect the cloud cover of certain regions and how much solar power they can generate. Northern Europe is likely to see a solar <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10014">decrease</a> for instance, while there should be a slight increase of available solar radiation in the rest of Europe, the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00949-9">US east coast</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/10/1/nwac242/6780217">northern China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="clouds above solar panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568234/original/file-20240108-17-b2hyqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cloudy weather means less solar energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-panel-farm-near-moonta-sa-2145570685">myphotobank.com.au / shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we were ever to build truly giant solar farms, spanning whole countries and continents, they may have a similar impact. In our recent study, we used a <a href="https://ec-earth.org/">computer program</a> to model the Earth system and simulate how hypothetical enormous solar farms covering 20% of the Sahara would affect solar power generation around the world.</p>
<p>A photovoltaic (PV) solar panel is dark-coloured and so absorbs much more heat than reflective desert sand. Although a fraction of the energy is converted to electricity, much of it still heats up the panel. And when you have millions of these panels grouped together, the whole area warms up. If those solar panels were in the Sahara, our simulations show this new heat source would <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-in-sahara-could-boost-renewable-energy-but-damage-the-global-climate-heres-why-153992">rearrange global climate patterns</a>, shifting rainfall away from the tropics and leading to the desert becoming greener again, much as it was just 5,000 or so years ago. </p>
<p>This would in turn affect patterns of cloud cover and how much solar energy could be generated around the world. Regions that would become cloudier and less able to generate solar power include the Middle East, southern Europe, India, eastern China, Australia, and the US south-west. Areas that would generate more solar include Central and South America, the Caribbean, central and eastern US, Scandinavia and South Africa.</p>
<p><strong>How global solar potential would be affected:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated world maps." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=87&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568225/original/file-20240108-27-cerj7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of changes in solar potential in the Sahara simulation. Changes to annual mean (left), December-January-February mean (centre), and June-July-August mean (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">Long & Lu et al (2024)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Something similar happened when we simulated the effects of huge solar farms in other hotspots in Central Asia, Australia, south-western US and north-western China – each led to climate changes elsewhere. For instance, huge solar farms covering much of the Australian outback would make it sunnier in South Africa, but cloudier in the UK, particularly during summer.</p>
<p><strong>If huge solar farms were installed in other drylands:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated world maps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568229/original/file-20240108-19-2x33ok.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in solar potential annually (top panels), in december-january-february (middle panel), and june-july-august (bottom panel) in four scenarios where huge solar farms were constructed. The solar farms in Central Asia, Central Australia and Southwestern USA, Northwestern China are shown by purple polygons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5">Long & Lu (2024)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some caveats. Things would only shift by a few per cent at most – however much solar power we build Scandinavia will still be cool and cloudy, Australia still hot and sunny. </p>
<p>And in any case, these effects are based on hypothetical scenarios. Our Sahara scenario was based on covering 20% of the entire desert in PV solar farms, for instance, and though there have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-we-turn-the-sahara-desert-into-a-huge-solar-farm-114450">ambitious proposals</a>, anything on that scale is unlikely to happen in the near future. If the covered area is reduced to a more plausible (though still unlikely) 5% of the Sahara, the global effects become mostly negligible. </p>
<h2>Why this thought experiment matters</h2>
<p>But in a future world in which almost every region invests in more solar projects and becomes more reliant on them, the interplay of solar energy resources can potentially shape the energy landscape, creating a complex web of dependencies, rivalries and opportunities. Geopolitical manoeuvring of solar project construction by certain nations may hold significant new power influencing solar generation potential far across their national boundaries.</p>
<p>That’s why it is essential to foster collaboration among nations to ensure that the benefits of solar energy are shared equitably around the world. By sharing knowledge and working together on the spatial planning of future large-scale solar projects, nations should develop and implement fair and sustainable energy solutions and avoid any unintended risks to solar power production far away.</p>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220458/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zhengyao Lu receives funding from FORMAS, the Crafoord Foundation, and the Swedish Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jingchao Long receives funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, The key construction discipline of high-level universities-Marine science, and GSTOEW.</span></em></p>Solar farms that span whole countries could change the climate – new study.Zhengyao Lu, Researcher in Physical Geography, Lund UniversityJingchao Long, Associate Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, Guangdong Ocean UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203462023-12-29T18:38:10Z2023-12-29T18:38:10ZFour good news climate stories from 2023<p>We don’t want to give you the wrong idea: things are bad. Antarctic ice sheets are melting, the fossil fuel lobby was everywhere <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fossil-fuel-companies-won-cop28-211212">at the COP talks</a>, and even solutions like electric cars have their problems. And that just covers the past few weeks of this newsletter.</p>
<p>But to end 2023 we’d like to focus on a few of the more optimistic stories we have run over the past year. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong>This roundup of The Conversation’s 2023 climate coverage comes from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">weekly climate action newsletter</a>.</strong> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.</a></em></p>
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<h2>1. We have skyscraper-sized wind turbines now</h2>
<p>Back in January, we asked Simon Hogg, executive director of Durham Energy Institute, about huge new wind turbines <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">being built in the North Sea</a></strong>. </p>
<p>These turbines, he wrote, “stand more than a quarter of a kilometre high from the surface of the sea to the highest point of the blade tip”.</p>
<p>“If you placed one in London, it would be the third-tallest structure in the city, taller than One Canada Square in Canary Wharf and just 50 metres shorter than the Shard. Each of its three blades would be longer than Big Ben’s clock tower is tall.”</p>
<p>The sheer size has some benefits: “A bigger blade extracts energy from the wind over a greater area as it rotates, which generates more electricity.” Each rotation can power an average home for two days. </p>
<p>In theory, Hogg notes, turbines could keep getting bigger and bigger. They will soon run into some practical problems though, as huge blades are harder to maintain and we are running out of ports and ships big enough for them. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, ever bigger wind turbines have been a key reason why Britain has managed to shift much of its electricity generation from <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-likely-to-generate-more-electricity-from-wind-solar-and-hydro-than-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-year-ever-in-2023-219936">fossil fuels to renewables</a> over the past decade.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">Wind turbines are already skyscraper-sized – is there any limit to how big they will get?</a>
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<h2>2. Solar power keeps getting cheaper and more adaptable</h2>
<p>Britain is, of course, more windy than sunny. But in much of the world, solar power is the real game changer. </p>
<p>Yet one issue with solar is that we may run out of material needed to produce silicon cells – the main sort of solar panels you see in solar farms or on rooftops. Therefore many academics are looking for alternatives. </p>
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<span class="caption">Solar fills the horizon in Broken Hill, Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-solar-panel-farm-power-plant-2100988024">Taras Vyshnya / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>One of these academics is David Benyon of Swansea University. In March he wrote about his new research, which involved developing “the world’s first rollable and fully printable <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/perovskite-new-type-of-solar-technology-paves-the-way-for-abundant-cheap-and-printable-cells-202579">solar cell made from perovskite</a></strong>, a material that is much less expensive to produce than silicon.” The technology is still in its early stages and needs to become more efficient but, he writes, “this points to the possibility of making cheaper solar cells on a much greater scale than ever before”.</p>
<p>Perhaps perovskite will become the new silicon, or maybe some other technology will dominate in future, but what’s clear is that solar power is fast becoming even cheaper and more accessible. The challenge for perovskite researchers, Benyon says, is to focus on “converting what’s happening in the labs into real-world devices”. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/perovskite-new-type-of-solar-technology-paves-the-way-for-abundant-cheap-and-printable-cells-202579">Perovskite: new type of solar technology paves the way for abundant, cheap and printable cells</a>
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<h2>3. On the menu: mammoth meatball</h2>
<p>Scientists recently created a meatball made of the flesh of extinct woolly mammoth. This in itself isn’t the good news: no one is proposing we fix climate change with prehistoric food. </p>
<p>But it’s proof that cellular agriculture, sometimes called “lab-grown meat”, can work. As Silvia Malagoli at Strathclyde University writes: “Lab-grown meat has the potential to offer a <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/italy-is-set-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-heres-why-it-should-think-again-203251">much more sustainable food</a></strong> source than traditional animal farming that could also help reduce the spread of disease.”</p>
<p>This could unlock huge amounts of land for rewilding or recreation. “If scaled up, lab-grown meat would use substantially less land and water. Research finds that around 99% less land is required to produce 1kg of lab-grown meat than would have to be used by European farms to produce the same amount.”</p>
<p>Malagoli also points out that lab-grown meat wouldn’t require the same volume of antibiotics that animal farmers use to prevent the spread of disease: “Their overuse is contributing to a rise of antibiotic resistance. The United Nations estimates that, by 2050, antibiotic resistance will lead to more deaths than cancer worldwide.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/italy-is-set-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-heres-why-it-should-think-again-203251">Italy is set to ban lab-grown meat – here’s why it should think again</a>
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<h2>4. Climate change tipping points can be a good thing too</h2>
<p>You’ve probably heard about the doomsday scenario of a part of the climate system – an ice sheet, perhaps, or a rainforest – suddenly passing a “tipping point” beyond which it is impossible to stop it changing into something else (perhaps barren rock or dried out savanna, respectively). The Conversation has covered these scenarios extensively over the years, most recently in a piece by authors of the major new <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-are-nearer-than-you-think-our-new-report-warns-of-catastrophic-risk-219243">tipping points report</a>. </p>
<p>But that same report also contained some positives. Climate-related technologies or social and political behaviour can also pass similar tipping points, beyond which something better becomes inevitable. Steven Smith at the University of Sussex and his colleagues wrote about these sorts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-can-be-positive-too-our-report-sets-out-how-to-engineer-a-domino-effect-of-rapid-changes-219291">“positive” tipping points</a> which they say are “already happening, in areas ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles, to social movements and plant-based diets”.</p>
<p>Their report sets out “ways to intervene in these systems to enable positive tipping points to be triggered – for example by making the desired change the cheapest, most convenient or morally acceptable option”.</p>
<p>They say that passing one tipping point can even set off a domino effect:</p>
<p>“For example, as we cross the tipping point that sees electric vehicles become the dominant form of road transport, battery technology will continue to get better and cheaper.</p>
<p>"This could trigger another positive tipping point in the use of batteries for storing renewable energy, reinforcing another in the use of heat pumps in our homes, and so on. And there are what we call ‘super-leverage points’ – places where we can deliberately intervene with information campaigns, mandates and incentives to create widespread change across sectors.”</p>
<p>Good news then for anyone who feels like we’ve been getting nowhere with climate action despite decades of effort. Things might suddenly look very different once past a certain point. As the saying almost goes, mammoth burgers are impossible until they are inevitable.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-can-be-positive-too-our-report-sets-out-how-to-engineer-a-domino-effect-of-rapid-changes-219291">Climate 'tipping points' can be positive too – our report sets out how to engineer a domino effect of rapid changes</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Including a positive way to think about tipping points.Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180462023-12-07T14:15:16Z2023-12-07T14:15:16Z4 east African countries are going for nuclear power – why this is a bad idea<p>The east Africa region has the fastest growing population in Africa. Between 2013 and 2017, its growth rate was <a href="https://rwanda.un.org/en/3063-east-africa-fastest-growing-region-africa-people-leading-longer-and-healthier-lives">twice the African average</a>. The region is also experiencing strong <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/east-africa-regional-economic-outlook-2023-mid-term-growth-east-africa-region-projected-highest-continent-2023-4-63483">economic growth</a>. It’s sub-Saharan share of GDP has <a href="https://www.euromonitor.com/article/east-africa---the-rising-economic-jewel-of-sub-saharan-africa#:%7E:text=By%202040%2C%20East%20Africa%20is,infrastructure%20and%20non%2Dservice%20sectors.">risen</a> from 14% in 2000 to 21% in 2022. </p>
<p>Such growth translates to higher electricity demand. Among a variety of new energy proposals is building nuclear power plants. Earlier this year, Uganda announced plans to construct a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uganda-plans-start-nuclear-power-generation-by-2031-minister-2023-03-09/">2,000MW nuclear plant</a> 150km north of Kampala, with the first 1,000MW operational by 2031. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rwanda-signs-agreement-build-test-nuclear-power-reactor-2023-09-12/">Rwanda</a> also recently signed up to a deal to build a nuclear reactor, while <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-from-2027-4380566">Kenya</a> and <a href="https://theexchange.africa/industry-and-trade/government-unveils-tanzanias-nuclear-plan-at-summit/">Tanzania</a> have made more or less similar announcements.</p>
<p>It is in many ways tempting for these countries to pursue a nuclear power plant build. Even a single large-scale <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/nuclear-essentials/are-there-different-types-of-reactor.aspx">nuclear reactor</a> would typically double national electricity generation capacity. In addition, it is technology that is – in theory at least – able to provide a constant electricity output independent of weather, season or time of day.</p>
<p>Another factor that motivates many potential entrants to nuclear power is that it has historically been perceived in many quarters as <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2005/03/23/for-tehran-nuclear-program-is-matter-of-national-pride-pub-16694">confirmation of high technological status</a> and proof of national respectability. This is despite many of the world’s technologically and economically strongest nations now having shut down their nuclear plants. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/15/europe/germany-nuclear-phase-out-climate-intl/index.html">Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.power-eng.com/nuclear/italian-referendum/#gref">Italy</a> are examples.</p>
<p>But there are several risks of choosing the nuclear path. The biggest in my view is financial. The costs of constructing, maintaining and later decommissioning a nuclear plant make this one of the <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/15/wind-solar-power-now-the-clear-champions-on-cost/">most expensive forms of electricity generation</a>. The actual cost is invariably a lot <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-658-25987-7_5">higher than originally announced</a>.</p>
<p>Along with that, the construction period is usually <a href="https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2022-.html">many years longer</a> than declared at the start.</p>
<p>In addition, safety issues can never be discounted when dealing with nuclear energy, as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Fukushima-accident">2011 Fukushima disaster</a> in Japan amply illustrated. </p>
<h2>The perilous path to nuclear</h2>
<p>There are two arguments against new nuclear as currently considered by east African countries.</p>
<p>The first is financial. The construction cost of a new nuclear plant typically stands at about US$5 billion per 1,000MW. The cost of a 2,000MW build in Uganda would be of the order of that country’s <a href="https://www.gtuganda.co.ug/globalassets/1.-member-firms/uganda/media/pdf-documents/grant-thornton_budget-booklet_-2023-24.pdf#page=10">annual total tax revenue</a>. As such, the project would rely on massive loans, which also come with considerable interest.</p>
<p>The second is the risk of complete political and economic dependence on the nuclear build sponsor country. France, South Korea and China are building a small number of nuclear plants outside their borders. China is now part of the <a href="https://theexchange.africa/business/uganda-nuclear-power-plant-a-realization-with-first-plant-under-construction/">Ugandan nuclear project</a>.</p>
<p>But the country that has been by far most aggressive in promoting itself as an international nuclear plant developer is <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russias-nuclear-play-for-power-in-africa/a-54004039">Russia</a>. In 2019 it had already secured nuclear cooperation agreements with <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-10-29-african-countries-rush-to-sign-nuclear-deals-with-russia/">18 African countries</a>, with several more concluded <a href="https://rosatomnewsletter.com/2023/08/30/africa-learns-russian-atoms/">more recently</a>. </p>
<p>To circumvent the prohibitive costs, Russian nuclear developers have offered to provide comparatively low interest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421518304245">financing</a> where repayments only kick in several years after the start of construction, and continue for several decades thereafter. The drawback is that the country develops a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5">strong long-term dependence on Russia</a> to meet one of its most basic needs: electricity provision. </p>
<p>The situation has been made more risky by the uncertainty of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. The fallout from this war may well ruin and lead to the complete overhaul of the Russian state. This would result in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-nuclear-power-exports-will-they-stand-the-strain-of-the-war-in-ukraine-178250">disruption and ultimate termination</a> of projects already in progress, with the concurrent loss of all funding and resources invested up to that point. </p>
<h2>East Africa’s likely future energy mix</h2>
<p>In view of the financial risk and high cost, and as global experience has shown that it typically requires <a href="https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2022-.html">ten or more years to set up a new nuclear plant</a> from project approval to electricity production, east African countries should pursue alternatives for electricity production.</p>
<p>New medium-scale solar, wind and geothermal power-generating facilities would likely dominate the expansion of east African electricity generation capacity in the coming decade as they are cheap in comparison. Typical construction timescales are also much lower than nuclear or hydro megaprojects. </p>
<p>Take hydropower generation, which uses the natural flow of moving water to produce electricity. This source of power has been the most significant in east Africa for decades. Building more dams is both time consuming and at times controversial. Nevertheless, major projects using this technology are currently still being built. An example is the <a href="https://www.world-energy.org/article/28655.html">2,115MW Julius Nyerere hydropower station</a> in Tanzania.</p>
<p>Solar power – the conversion of energy from sunlight into electricity – has an extremely low footprint in the region at the moment. Yet it is now one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation. Most countries in the region have extensive areas <a href="https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/sub-saharan-africa">suitable</a> for harnessing this source. </p>
<p>While not enjoying the wind resources of the Earth’s oceans and mid-latitudes, wind farms can be considered in places, and are already in operation, such as in Kenya’s <a href="https://ltwp.co.ke/">Lake Turkana</a> region.</p>
<p>East Africa furthermore has the Rift Valley and its volcanic activity in places. This offers the opportunity for <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/geothermal-energy/">geothermal power</a>, a technology that converts the intense underground heat associated with cracks in the Earth’s crust to electricity. This is already the <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/kenya">leading electricity generation mode in Kenya</a> and could be developed elsewhere.</p>
<p>Given all these factors, investing in a large and expensive nuclear build with uncertain completion timeframes that may end up being way more expensive than projected is ultimately simply not worth it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. He is a contributor to the 2023 edition of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report. </span></em></p>There are several risks in choosing the nuclear path – the biggest being financial.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140632023-11-07T19:35:03Z2023-11-07T19:35:03ZMaking money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy<p>Just north of Jamestown in South Australia, 70 kilometres east of the Spencer Gulf and next to a wind farm of nearly 100 turbines, stands the world’s <a href="https://www.cefc.com.au/where-we-invest/case-studies/sa-big-battery-a-game-changer/">first big battery</a>. </p>
<p>Built in partnership with <a href="https://www.tesla.com/videos/powerpack-hornsdale">Tesla</a> and financed and operated by <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/upgrade-at-tesla-battery-project-demonstrates-feasibility-of-once-in-a-century-energy-transformation-for-australia/">Neoen</a>, a French multinational renewable energy developer, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve">Hornsdale Power Reserve</a> and other big battery projects could stimulate a homegrown battery industry, contributing many <a href="https://fbicrc.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Charging-Ahead_Final-Report_Full-17-March-2023-1.pdf">billions of dollars and thousands of jobs</a> to the Australian economy. But for that industry to rise, it will need money.</p>
<p>Australia aspires not only to transition its economy to net zero emissions, but to become a green energy superpower. That means building a host of solar and wind farms, batteries, electric vehicle charging stations, upgrades to the grid and to all kinds of buildings, as well as investments in new technology. </p>
<p>These investments and big infrastructure projects don’t come cheap. Getting to net zero emissions by 2050 requires investment in renewable energy of A$754 billion in power generation alone, according to <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2022-06/Supercharging%20transition%202021%20Update%20-%20Oct%2022%20update.docx.pdf">research</a> by the <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf">UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures</a> and funded by Future Super.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The size of the green finance challenge</h2>
<p>By 2030, the world will have to invest <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-a-decade-of-data/">an estimated US$4.3 trillion</a> a year – roughly <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true">the GDP of Japan</a>, the world’s third-largest economy – in climate finance. These financial flows need to grow by 21% a year, on average. Without this enormous increase, the economic transition will not happen in time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>The scale of financing means that superannuation funds and other big institutional investors <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/super-funds-voice-concerns-over-reaching-2030-green-targets/news-story/43aed4b3d27a80c1f8cc349390acc4a8">must be involved</a>. They need to know where their money is going, and whether investments are genuine or a case of “greenwashing”. They need certainty that companies in which they invest have solid plans to reduce their climate risk, and the ability to ask the companies questions when they don’t.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>But current financial regulation is not set up to support such best practice. To give just one example, default superannuation funds lack the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Methodology%20paper%20-%20MySuper%20Heatmap.pdf">benchmarks</a> – measures of performance assessed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority – they need to invest in start-up businesses that are developing clean energy technologies. </p>
<p>Successive Australian governments have been slow to grasp this reality, and we are now playing catch-up with many other countries. </p>
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<h2>Australia releases its strategy</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2023-456756#:%7E:text=The%20strategy's%20policy%20priorities%20are,Australian%20Government%20leadership%20and%20engagement.">Australian government’s Sustainable Finance Strategy</a>, <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/new-steps-albanese-governments-sustainable-finance">released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers</a> last Thursday, lays solid foundations for this recovery. Yet more needs to be done if Australia is to achieve the strategy’s stated ambition to be a global sustainability finance leader.</p>
<p>The strategy is arranged around <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2023-456756#:%7E:text=The%20strategy's%20policy%20priorities%20are,Australian%20Government%20leadership%20and%20engagement.">three core pillars</a>. The first focuses on creating access to information that is credible, accurate and of practical value. It seeks to ensure markets operate efficiently and money flows to where it is most needed.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>From July 1 2024, large Australian companies and financial institutions will have to <a href="https://www.climateworkscentre.org/news/mandatory-climate-related-financial-disclosures-for-australian-companies-explained/#:%7E:text=Under%20Treasury's%20proposal%2C%20companies%20will,requiring%20substantial%20forward%2Dlooking%20information.">disclose information</a> about the impacts of climate on their business, the risks climate change poses to their operations, and how they plan to decarbonise. </p>
<p>The disclosure requirements will be based on <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/#:%7E:text=IFRS%20S2%20requires%20an%20entity,related%20risks%20and%20opportunities%20that">internationally accepted standards</a>, to ensure Australian and overseas investors can compare data across companies and countries. </p>
<p>The government is also supporting the development of an <a href="https://www.asfi.org.au/taxonomy">Australian sustainable finance taxonomy</a> – a set of criteria that enables investors to evaluate whether and to what extent an investment supports sustainability goals. </p>
<p>A taxonomy spells out which investments result in real decarbonisation, and reduces the likelihood of false claims about the sustainability of projects and investments. A government agency will manage the taxonomy, which will start as a voluntary code but may eventually become mandatory. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>Large companies will also be required to disclose their net zero transition plan, if they have one. With companies representing <a href="https://acsi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Promises-Pathways-Performance-Climate-reporting-in-the-ASX200-August-2023.pdf">80% of the market capitalisation</a> of ASX 200 companies pledging to achieve net zero emissions, the government wants to ensure their plans are credible. It wants the corporate regulator, the <a href="https://asic.gov.au/">Australian Securities and Investment Commission</a> (ASIC), to set out its expectations of the plans – a welcome step.</p>
<p>The second pillar focuses on building the capabilities of Australia’s financial system regulators to manage risk and to clamp down on greenwashing – the practice of making misleading or deceptive claims about the environmental benefits of activities or assets. </p>
<h2>Fighting greenwashing</h2>
<p>ASIC Deputy Chair Karen Chester believes the economic cost and loss of investor confidence caused by greenwashing “<a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/speeches/climate-change-urgency-integrity-ambition/">cannot be overstated</a>”. Her organisation has set out guidelines to help financial institutions identify it. This year ASIC launched its <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-043mr-asic-launches-first-court-proceedings-alleging-greenwashing/">first three legal actions</a>, including one against the local arm of US investment giant <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-196mr-asic-commences-greenwashing-case-against-vanguard-investments-australia/">Vanguard</a>, and another against <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2023-releases/23-215mr-asic-commences-greenwashing-case-against-active-super/">Active Super</a>, which allegedly falsely claimed it had eliminated investments, such as coal mining, that posed too great a risk to the environment and the community. </p>
<p>The third pillar concerns government leadership and engagement. Such a large and rapid increase in the scale of private sector finance requires growth in a range of financial assets, including shares, bonds and other kinds of debt. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>The government is supporting the development of a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/sep/green-and-sustainable-finance-in-australia.html">green bond market</a> by issuing <a href="https://www.moneymanagement.com.au/features/all-eyes-australias-inaugural-sovereign-green-bonds">Australia’s first green sovereign bond</a> in June. These bonds are designed to establish standards for lending and borrowing for all green finance; they will also help the government to fund projects such as electric vehicle charging infrastructure. </p>
<p>Finally, the strategy recognises the importance of <a href="https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/funds/australian-climate-finance-partnership">collaboration across the Asia-Pacific</a>. If Australia achieves its goal of becoming a regional sustainable finance hub it would not only benefit our national interest but help Pacific Island nations to raise the finance to decarbonise. </p>
<h2>What’s missing from the strategy?</h2>
<p>The strategy does not focus on <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2022-10/Advancing%20climate%20skills%20in%20the%20Australian%20financial%20system%20FINAL_0.pdf">green finance skills</a> and competencies. Yet these capabilities, ranging from a basic understanding of what business activities are unsustainable to specialist expertise in the use of scenario analysis to assess climate risk, are essential to the net zero transition. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>LinkedIn’s recent <a href="https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/global-green-skills-report">Green Skills Report</a> shows that, globally, the finance sector is lagging behind other sectors in building green skills. And Australia ranks only 30th in a list of countries on its share of talent for green finance.</p>
<p>Australia’s financial system must urgently transform itself to meet the climate challenge. If the financing of the transition were a bicycle race, Australia has now caught up to the global peloton. The next step is to take the lead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Atherton is a member of the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute's Capability Reference Group</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon Noble does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If big money is going to invest in clean energy and technology, the rules have to be clear. Australia’s launch of a green finance strategy last week was a good start but there is further to go.Alison Atherton, Program Lead, Business, Economy and Governance at the Institute for Sustainable Futures., University of Technology SydneyGordon Noble, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157702023-10-31T20:01:45Z2023-10-31T20:01:45ZHow to ensure Alberta’s oil and gas workers have jobs during the energy transition<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-to-ensure-albertas-oil-and-gas-workers-have-jobs-during-the-energy-transition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Retraining Alberta’s oil and gas workers for the solar industry costs far less than you think. The results of our new study clearly show that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">rapid transition to sustainable energy production is feasible</a>, as costs of retraining oil and gas workers are far from prohibitive.</p>
<h2>Probable futures</h2>
<p>The oil and gas industry has played a crucial part in <a href="http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?art=807&param=129">Alberta’s political structure</a> for decades. Alberta contains about 97 per cent of all oil stores in Canada, <a href="https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/newstop-ten-countries-with-worlds-largest-oil-reserves-5793487/">which ranks third</a> globally for oil and gas exports.</p>
<p>Over 20 per cent of the GDP and 5.9 per cent of all employment in Alberta is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2021007/article/00003-eng.htm">tied to the oil and gas industry</a>, which employs over <a href="https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/home">35,000 people</a>. </p>
<p>However, many factors — including increasing electrification, reduction in renewable energy costs and climate policy — are aligning to annihilate Alberta’s traditional fossil-fuel focused energy industry. This raises a real concern for <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/10/15/news/canadian-fossil-fuel-jobs-about-be-cut-half-its-time-talk-about-just-transition">oil and gas workers’ jobs in the near future</a>. </p>
<h2>A confluence of events</h2>
<p>Purchases of electric vehicles (EVs) are already up 35 per cent this year after a record year, and <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/demand-for-electric-cars-is-booming-with-sales-expected-to-leap-35-this-year-after-a-record-breaking-2022">predicted to increase</a>. This indicates that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/peak-oil-demand-is-coming-fast-for-transportation#xj4y7vzkg">oil-based transportation is quickly coming to an end</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to lower costs of ownership, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2487514">EVs can also offer electric grid support</a> by acting like mobile batteries that can help overcome the renewable energy intermittency challenge by storing wind and solar electricity for when they are needed. In addition, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2020.102050">conventional electric storage</a> <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abb216/meta">reduces electricity costs</a> while servicing the grid with intermittent generators. </p>
<p>These technologies not only help expand opportunities for renewable energy technologies, but they also electrify transportation, which directly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105086">undermines the market for the oil industry</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the market for the gas industry is challenged by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101764">use of electric-powered heat pumps</a>. In North America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">solar-powered heat pumps have already become economically viable</a>. And for the first time in history <a href="https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Featured-Stories/US-Heat-Pump-Sales">heat pump sales outperformed conventional natural gas furnaces in the United States</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/solar-energy-cheapest-in-history-iea-renewables-climate-change/">solar electricity is now the cheapest electricity to produce</a> — and although gas-fired electricity is better for the environment and more economic than coal, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/gas-cant-compete-with-wind-solar-and-storage-even-in-worlds-biggest-market/">gas simply cannot compete</a> with modern solar technologies. </p>
<h2>Competition in Alberta</h2>
<p>Alberta allows <a href="https://www.aeso.ca/aeso/understanding-electricity-in-alberta/continuing-education/guide-to-understanding-albertas-electricity-market/">electricity generators to sell electricity to the grid in a free market set-up</a>. When the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/pembina-institute-report-renewable-projects-affected-by-pause-moratorium-1.6946440">pause</a>” on renewable development in Alberta is lifted, it will create a massive solar boom. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In August 2023, the Alberta government paused the approval of new renewable energy projects in response to concerns about developing wind and solar projects on agricultural land.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9918212/alberta-renewable-energy-development-pause-pembina/">backlog of over $30 billion of hugely profitable solar projects</a> in Alberta, poising the province for a historic surge in super-cheap solar power. Simultaneously, the costs for carbon emissions are becoming even more clear <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.058">in terms of money</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074">human deaths</a>. This is only going to make oil and gas more expensive, whether from likely increased costs in carbon-regulated emissions or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.025">trillions in carbon emissions liabilities</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/859123/most-polluting-oil-types-worldwide/">oil sands are the most polluting type of oil produced in the world today</a> — finding ways to feasibly phase them out is a key climate priority. If Canada makes good on its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">net zero by 2050 promise</a> — essentially cutting all fossil fuel use — it is pretty clear that Alberta’s oil and gas workers will no longer have jobs. </p>
<h2>Retraining for solar</h2>
<p>An approach to keeping livelihoods is to retrain oil and gas workers for the solar industry, where there are lots of desperately needed jobs.</p>
<p>In the U.S., similar efforts are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.016">underway to retrain the 50,000 workers in the coal industry</a> to join the more than 250,000 solar workers.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I completed a study on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">exactly what that would cost</a>. Because many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work, many oil and gas workers would be able to transfer fields with no additional training required. </p>
<p>We used the <a href="https://irecusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/National-Solar-Jobs-Census-2020-FINAL.pdf">U.S. Solar Census</a> data to examine distributions of workers that would keep the same type of work in the oil and gas industry of Alberta. </p>
<p>We put ourselves — figuratively — into the workboots of the oil workers to future-proof their careers. When our oil worker skills did not align directly with a position type in the solar field, workers were assigned one of a few different types of positions that would require the least retraining possible.</p>
<p>Multiple different retraining options were outlined — universities, colleges and online courses currently available in Alberta — to provide cost estimates for each different type of retraining: trades certification, two-year college degree, four-year university degree, graduate degree.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two workers on a roof installing panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Retraining costs</h2>
<p>We found the total costs for retraining all oil sands workers in Alberta for the solar industry ranges between $91.5 and $276.2 million.
In context, this is a small amount of money for the energy industry — only <a href="https://ccli.ubc.ca/resource/fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-canada-governance-implications-in-the-net-zero-transition/">two to six per cent of federal, provincial and territorial oil and gas subsidies for a single year</a> would need to be reallocated to provide oil and gas workers with a new career of approximately equivalent pay.</p>
<p>Currently, Canada spends more than <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/school-of-public-policy-homeless-services-study-1.4970251">$30 billion annually to fund social services for the homeless population</a>. It makes more sense to retrain workers whose jobs are about to evaporate. </p>
<p>The costs to retrain oil and gas workers could be funded in many ways. For example, a Canadian CEO in the oil and gas sector could agree to reduce his annual salary to $500,000 and donate the rest for five years. That would be enough to retrain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">all of Alberta’s oil and gas workers</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/iea-report-world-energy-outlook-2023-1.7005194">fossil fuels peaking soon</a>, companies could also prioritize retraining for their workers as they transition <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bakx-oilsands-renewables-enbridge-1.5980380">to carbon-free energy themselves</a>.</p>
<p>Provincial and federal governments could also provide financial incentives or compensation for the costs of retraining. And finally, workers who notice the writing on the wall could start retraining at their own expense. </p>
<p>In the end, while there are legitimate reasons to fear for long-term employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector, the resources needed to retrain the workers for the solar industry can be easily made available for this energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received research funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada.</span></em></p>If Alberta prepares to transition from oil and gas to solar energy, the workforce will need retraining. New research shows that this will cost less than expected.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163732023-10-29T19:12:04Z2023-10-29T19:12:04ZAustralia’s new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions<p>Australia has three ways it can help reduce world greenhouse emissions, the only reduction that matters in tackling climate change.</p>
<p>First, we can remove emissions from our economy. This will reduce global emissions <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">by just 1.3%</a>, but it must be done so we share the transition burden with other countries. </p>
<p>Second, we can stop approving new coal and gas projects, which will raise the cost of these products and so reduce world demand for them to some extent. This would have an important demonstration effect, although the reduction in world emissions may be less than some advocates think.</p>
<p>Third, we can quickly pursue industries in which Australia has a clear comparative advantage in a net-zero world. Of any country, Australia is probably best placed to produce <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6BLjjTW694&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29">green iron</a> and other minerals that require energy-intensive processing, as well as <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/september/sustainable-aviation-fuel">green transport fuels</a>, <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7985444/good-to-go-green-with-green-urea/">urea</a> for fertiliser, and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/australia-s-green-energy-future-can-maximise-global-decarbonisation-20230906-p5e2c1">polysilicon</a> for solar panels.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Australia’s huge green industry opportunity</h2>
<p>Of these three ways, by far the least public discussion is on the third: producing energy-intensive green exports. Yet these industries could reduce world emissions by as much as 6–9%, easily Australia’s largest contribution to the global effort. And it would transform our economy, turning Australia into a green energy superpower.</p>
<p>Australia produces <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/data-insights/iron-ore-in-australia-2/#:%7E:text=Australia%20accounts%20for%2038%25%20of,share%20being%20exported%20to%20China.">almost 40%</a> of the world’s iron ore. Turning iron ore into metallic iron accounts <a href="https://research.csiro.au/tnz/low-emissions-steel/#:%7E:text=Australia%20produces%20almost%20half%20of,global%20green%20house%20gas%20emissions.">for 7% of global emissions</a>. Our iron ore is largely processed overseas, often using Australian coal, which can be exported cheaply. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>In the net-zero world, iron ore can be reduced to iron metal <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm#:%7E:text=The%20magic%20of%20hydrogen%20is,natural%20gas%20instead%20of%20hydrogen.">using green hydrogen</a> rather than coal. Considerable renewable energy will be needed, yet renewable energy and hydrogen are very expensive to export. </p>
<p>Therefore, rather than export ore, renewable energy and hydrogen, it makes economic sense to process our iron in Australia, before shipping it overseas. Doing so would reduce global emissions by around 3%.</p>
<p>Likewise, turning Australia’s bauxite <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/green-steel-and-aluminium-production-within-reach/">into green aluminium</a> using low-cost renewable energy could reduce world emissions by around 1%. Making polysilicon is also energy-intensive, so again Australia is a natural home for its production. And Australian low-cost green hydrogen plus sustainable carbon from <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/bioenergy/">biomass</a> are needed for making green urea and transport fuels. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<h2>From gas and coal power to clean power</h2>
<p>Australia is the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/new-analysis-australia-ranks-third-for-fossil-fuel-export/">world’s largest exporter of gas and coal taken together</a>. Some analysts focus on the costs of losing this large comparative advantage as the world responds to climate change. They overlook two key points. </p>
<p>First, Australia has the world’s best combination of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/wind-energy">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/solar-energy">solar</a> energy resources, and enormous sources of biomass for a zero-emissions chemical industry. </p>
<p>Second, we have abundant and much-needed minerals that require huge amounts of energy to process. The high cost of <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/can-we-export-renewable-energy/">exporting renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/opinion-does-it-make-financial-sense-to-export-green-hydrogen-derived-ammonia-around-the-world-/2-1-1325336">hydrogen</a> makes it economically logical for these industries to be located near the energy source. </p>
<p>In other words, more of Australia’s minerals and other energy-intensive products should now be processed in Australia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>If Australia seizes this opportunity it can repeat the experience of the <a href="https://aus.thechinastory.org/archive/economics-and-the-china-resources-boom/#:%7E:text=For%20China%2C%20resources%20remain%20the,of%20trade%20surplus%20with%20China.">China resources boom</a> of around ten years ago, but this time the opportunity can be sustained, not boom and bust, with benefits spread over more regions and people.</p>
<p>Some of the actions governments must take to achieve the 6–9% reduction in world emissions will also help to decarbonise our economy. We must develop the skills we need, support well-staffed government bodies to provide efficient approvals for new mines and processes, build infrastructure that will often be far from the east coast electricity grid, and maintain open trade for imports and exports. </p>
<h2>What government must do</h2>
<p>But we also need policy changes to give private investors assistance to bridge the current <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-it-will-cost-320b-to-ditch-coal-in-three-maps-and-a-chart-20220608-p5as3t">cost gap between green and black products</a> (meaning ones made by clean or by fossil fuel energy) in these new industries, and to help early movers. </p>
<p>If we help companies to produce these products at scale, costs will fall as processes are streamlined and technology improves. Capital grants for early movers are an option, but more work is needed to determine the best forms of support.</p>
<p>Let’s make a distinction between energy-intensive green products and mining. While Australia should mine the energy transition minerals the world needs – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths – mining does not need the financial incentives just cited. Critical minerals are used in black as well as green products and Australia already has significant expertise in mining. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>Some will argue Australia can wait until other countries have proven the technology and scaled up production so that the green-black price gap disappears; these new green industries will end up in Australia anyway because of our strong comparative advantage. This complacent argument has many flaws.</p>
<p>Australia is making decisions on its climate and economic direction now. If we do not focus on industries in which we have sustainable advantages we will end up damaging our prosperity. For example, we might pursue labour intensive industries that will be low margin and pay low wages, when other countries are better locations for them.</p>
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<p>Second, while technology breakthroughs will be shared internationally, innovation is often about streamlining processes to suit local conditions. If we learn these lessons in Australia, we can achieve lowest-cost world production. If not, these industries could permanently locate elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The need for speed</h2>
<p>Most importantly, Australia needs to move now to put in place the incentives set out above. No other nation that has the capacity to make these energy intensive green products at scale seems focused on the task. If Australia does not do it, the reduction in world emissions could be seriously delayed. </p>
<p>Of all countries, Australia is best placed to show the world what is possible. Companies and countries using conventionally made steel today can say they want to use green iron but none is available. Let’s deny them that excuse.</p>
<p>Once the large investment, productivity and prosperity benefits of this agenda are properly explained, all Australians will applaud it. </p>
<p>What’s more, the level of renewable energy required by the transition will see our power prices fall to some of the lowest in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-economists-call-for-a-carbon-price-a-tax-on-coal-exports-and-green-tariffs-to-get-australia-on-the-path-to-net-zero-216428">Worried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and 'green tariffs' to get Australia on the path to net zero</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Sims is also Chair of the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>Australia has a massive opportunity to reduce global emissions by as much as 9%, all while renewing its heavy industries and economy. But to seize the opportunity, government needs to move fast.Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138632023-10-22T19:01:21Z2023-10-22T19:01:21ZHow to beat ‘rollout rage’: the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia<p>In August, Victoria’s Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">made a decision</a> that could set a difficult precedent for Australia’s effort to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>In considering the environmental effects of the proposed $1 billion <a href="https://www.willatookwindfarm.com.au/">Willatook wind farm</a> 20km north of Port Fairy in southwest Victoria, the minister ruled that the developers, <a href="https://windprospect.com.au/">Wind Prospect</a>, had to build wider buffers around the wind turbines and observe a five-month ban on work at the site over each of the two years of construction. </p>
<p>Her reason? To protect the wetlands and breeding season of the <a href="https://www.wildlife.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/91383/Brolga.pdf">brolga</a>, a native crane and a threatened species, and the habitat of the critically endangered <a href="https://www.environment.vic.gov.au/conserving-threatened-species/threatened-species/southern-bent-wing-bat">southern bent-wing bat</a>. </p>
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<p>The decision shocked many clean energy developers. Wind Prospect’s managing director Ben Purcell said the conditions imposed by the minister would reduce the planned number of 59 turbines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">by two-thirds</a> and make the project “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">totally unworkable</a>”. </p>
<p>Kilkenny acknowledged that <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">her assessment</a> might reduce the project’s energy output. However, she said “while the transition to renewable energy generation is an important policy and legislative priority for Victoria”, so was “protection of declining biodiversity values”.</p>
<p>The military uses the term “blue on blue” for casualties from friendly fire. In the environmental arena we now risk “green on green” losses, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Intelligencer%20-%20August%208%2C%202023&utm_term=Subscription%20List%20-%20Daily%20Intelligencer%20%281%20Year%29">and agonising dilemmas</a> as governments try to reconcile their responses to the world’s two biggest environmental problems: climate change and biodiversity loss. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<h2>The green vs green dilemma</h2>
<p>The goal of achieving net zero by 2050 requires nothing less than an economic and social transformation. That includes extensive construction of wind and solar farms, transmission lines, pumped hydro, critical mineral mines and more. </p>
<p>Australia needs to move fast – the Australian Energy Market Operator says <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/aemo-maps-10,000km-of-high-voltage-transmission/102833156">10,000km of high-voltage transmission lines</a> need to be built to support the clean energy transition – but we are already <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-energy-transition-gridlocked-regulators-have-no-answers-20231009-p5eapd">lagging badly</a>. </p>
<p>The problem is that moving fast inflames what is often fierce opposition from local communities. They are especially concerned with the environmental impacts of vast electricity towers and lines running across land they love. </p>
<p>In southern New South Wales, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">organised groups are fighting to stop</a> the construction of a huge infrastructure project, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/humelink">HumeLink</a>, that seeks to build 360km of transmission lines to connect <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">Snowy Hydro 2.0</a> and other renewable energy projects to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>Locals say the cities will get the power, while they pay the price. “No one should minimise the consequences of ‘industrialising’ Australia’s iconic locations – would we build power lines above Bondi Beach?” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">the Snowy Valleys Council asked</a> in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Clean energy developers are caught in a perfect storm, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/michelle-grattan-uphill-road-angry-locals-renewables/102887426">at loggerheads with environmentalists and landholders alike</a> over environmental conditions, proper consultation and compensation, while grappling with long regulatory delays and supply chain blockages for their materials. </p>
<p>They see a system that provides environmental approval on paper but seemingly unworkable conditions and intolerable delays in practice. Does the bureaucracy’s left hand, they wonder, know what its right hand is doing?</p>
<p>Net zero, nature protection and “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/rollout-rage-power-struggle-and-a-shocked-minister/news-story/21aeebffca06cd116d6b077ca5a02624">rollout rage</a>” feel like a toxic mix. Yet we have to find a quick way to deliver the clean energy projects we urgently need. </p>
<h2>What is to be done?</h2>
<p>The major solution to climate change is to electrify everything, using 100% renewable energy. That means lots of climate-friendly infrastructure.</p>
<p>The major regulatory solution to ongoing biodiversity loss is to stop running down species and ecosystems so deeply that they cannot recover. Among other things, that means protecting sensitive areas, which are sometimes the same areas that need to be cleared, or at least impinged upon, to build new infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>To get agreement, we need a better way than the standard project-based approval processes and private negotiations between developers and landowners. The underlying principle must be that all citizens, not just directly affected groups, bear the burden of advancing the common good. </p>
<p>As tough as these problems look, elements of a potential solution, at least in outline, are on the table. </p>
<p>These elements are: good environmental information, regional environmental planning and meaningful public participation. The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nature-positive-plan.pdf">Nature Positive Plan</a> for stronger environmental laws promises all three.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s plan</h2>
<p>Australia lags badly in gathering and assembling essential environmental information. Without it, we are flying blind. The government has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Budget/reviews/2023-24/Environment">established Environment Information Australia</a> “to provide an authoritative source of high-quality environmental information.” Although extremely belated, it’s a start.</p>
<p>The Nature Positive Plan may also improve the second element – regional planning – by helping it deal with “green on green” disputes through <a href="https://www.kwm.com/global/en/insights/latest-thinking/federal-environmental-law-reform-what-you-need-to-know-in-2023.html#:%7E:text=Regional%20plans%20will%20be%20built,development%20will%20be%20largely%20prohibited">its proposed “traffic light” system</a> of environmental values. </p>
<p>Places with the highest environmental values (or significant Indigenous and other heritage values) would be placed in “red zones” and be protected from development, climate-friendly or not. </p>
<p>Development would be planned in orange and green zones, but require <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/animals-and-plants/biodiversity-offsets-scheme#:%7E:text=The%20Biodiversity%20Offsets%20Scheme%20is,gains%20through%20landholder%20stewardship%20agreements.">biodiversity offsets</a> in orange zones. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The catch is that most current biodiversity offsets, which commonly involve putting land into reserve to compensate for land cleared, are environmental failures. </p>
<p>The government has promised to tighten these rules, but advocates ranging from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/development-could-be-banned-in-certain-areas-amid-sweeping-recommendations-20230824-p5dz5t.html">former senior public servant Ken Henry</a> to the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/what-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-our-national-environment-laws-means-for-nature">Australian Conservation Foundation</a> are pushing for more. A strict approach would make offsets expensive and sometimes impossible to find, but that is the price of becoming nature-positive. </p>
<h2>The need for regional planning</h2>
<p>Good regional planning – based, say, on Australia’s <a href="https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/nrm-regions-map/">54 natural resource management regions</a> – would deal with a bundle of issues upfront. That approach would avoid the environmental “deaths of a thousand cuts” that occur when developments are approved one by one. </p>
<p>But regional planning will only succeed if federal and state governments allocate significant resources and work together. Australia’s record on such cooperation is a sorry one. Again, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is attempting a belated <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/regional-plans-transform-environmental-protection">fresh start</a>, but this will be a particularly rocky road.</p>
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<p>The third element – meaningful public participation – involves restoring trust in the system. This requires transparency, proper consultation, and the public’s right <a href="https://www.wilderness.org.au/news-events/epbc-act-must-enshrine-a-fair-say-for-community">to challenge decisions in the courts</a>. </p>
<p>Meaningful consultation requires time, expertise, and properly funded expert bodies that can build a culture of continuous improvement. Again, Australia’s record to date has been piecemeal and poor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>These reforms – better information, planning and public participation – will take time. In the meantime, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle">precautionary principle</a> suggests a three-pronged approach to keeping us on track for net zero. </p>
<p>One, work proactively with developers to find infrastructure sites that avoid environmentally sensitive areas. </p>
<p>Two, speed up regulatory approvals. Fund well-resourced taskforces for both, as the gains will vastly outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Three, be generous in compensating landowners where development is approved. Fairness comes at a cost, but unfairness will create an even higher one.</p>
<p>All this makes for a political sandwich of a certain kind. Why would government even consider it? </p>
<p>The answer lays bare the hard choice underlying modern environmental policy. We can accept some pain now, or a lot more later. The prize, though, is priceless: a clean energy system for a stable climate, and a natural environment worth passing on to future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Burnett is a member of the Biodiversity Council, which has the object of communicating accurate information on all aspects of biodiversity to secure and restore the future of Australia’s biodiversity.</span></em></p>If Australia is to meet its net zero targets it must move fast and build massive industrial infrastructure. But those projects are provoking fierce hostility. Is there a way through the green dilemma?Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138762023-10-18T00:49:51Z2023-10-18T00:49:51ZClimate change will affect solar power and grid stability across Australia – here’s how<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554431/original/file-20231017-15-sromml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=821%2C0%2C4486%2C2393&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/huge-solar-power-plant-panels-renewable-2142285649">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Renewable electricity generation is at record levels in Australia. Renewables produced <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/Clean-Energy-Australia-Report-2023.pdf">36% of the nation’s electricity</a> in 2022. Solar photovoltaics (PV) had the highest renewable contribution (about 15%) and are expected to keep growing in coming years. </p>
<p>But the increase in the share of grid-connected renewables adds to the challenge of maintaining a stable electricity grid, given the impact of weather conditions on their output. </p>
<p>An increasingly important question is what impact will climate change have on weather-induced inconsistencies in solar generation? <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">Our newly published research</a> is the first to quantify climate change’s impact on solar resource reliability in Australia over the next century.</p>
<p>We find that as the climate warms, in some regions of Australia there will be more weather-induced variability than in others. In particular, the eastern parts of Australia can expect fewer intermittent or lull periods of solar power generation by the end of the century. By contrast, some regions in the west will face prolonged periods of minimum-to-no power generation in the future. </p>
<p>Despite the changing climate, the good news is the future of solar power looks promising in most of Australia. Our research suggests solar resource reliability will increase in the regions where we have our existing solar farms. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-948" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/948/288b55303b284314a27a69ec97008bf5a1f567e8/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-successful-energy-transition-depends-on-managing-when-people-use-power-so-how-do-we-make-demand-more-flexible-213079">A successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?</a>
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<h2>How does solar growth affect grid stability?</h2>
<p>The grid distributes electricity generated from coal and gas-fired power stations, large solar and wind farms, rooftop solar, hydropower and so on. </p>
<p>Unlike coal or gas-fired stations, the power renewables generate is not constant. It varies depending on the local weather. For example, the amount of solar power generated depends on the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">amount of irradiance</a> (intensity of sunlight) and, most importantly, cloud cover at that location. </p>
<p>So, any changes in the weather affect the amount of energy supplied to the grid. These variable outputs can not only cause an imbalance between electricity supply and demand, but also lead to voltage fluctuations and blackouts. </p>
<p>Electrical equipment is designed to function at a specific frequency and voltage. If the voltage exceeds the threshold it can damage the equipment. At a larger scale, voltage changes or frequency instability can trigger safety mechanisms that take parts of the grid offline, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-38566-z">leading to blackouts</a>.</p>
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<h2>How does climate change affect solar output?</h2>
<p>Using regional climate model projections, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039">our results</a> predict that under a higher emissions scenario known as <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">RCP8.5</a>, often described as “business as usual”, the availability of solar resources will increase in most of Australia by up to 1% by 2099. We predict minor decreases of 0.25–0.5% near the west.</p>
<p>Similarly, the duration of extractable solar power (called “episode lengths”) will increase in the east by up to 30 minutes per year. We predict minor decreases in the west. This means the resource will be more reliable in the east and we can expect a more stable electricity supply from solar PV generation. This doesn’t take into account higher temperatures, which can <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a64/meta">decrease the PV yield</a>.</p>
<p>We also predict the times with no-to-minimum power generation (called “lulls”) will reduce in eastern Australia by about 25 minutes per year. We expect minor increases in lulls in the west. These changes are mainly due to an increase in the number of clear-sky days in the east. </p>
<h2>A less sunny outlook for world’s largest solar farm</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.suncable.energy/our-projects">Sun Cable</a> is developing the largest solar farm in the world in the Northern Territory. It will have a generation capacity of at least 14 gigawatts. Sun Cable plans to supply electricity to Darwin and Singapore.</p>
<p>Based on our simulations, we predict a 2% reduction in radiation at the Sun Cable solar farm by 2099. This could lead to a loss of about 280 megawatts in its total generation capacity by then. </p>
<p>We also predict reduced episode lengths for the Sun Cable farm. This points to shorter periods of reliable power output. Likewise, the power generated is predicted to be highly variable throughout the day due to an increase in lull periods.</p>
<p>Sun Cable will likely need to consider having energy storage systems and strategies to control voltage fluctuations to tackle intermittency. </p>
<h2>What else does Australia need to consider?</h2>
<p>The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">report</a> stresses the urgent need to prepare for extreme climate change and greatly reduce carbon emissions. One of the most efficient ways to do this is to develop more grid-connected renewable energy technologies world-wide. </p>
<p>Australia has an ambitious <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/advocacy-initiatives/renewable-energy-target">renewable energy target</a>, and we expect more grid-connected solar farms in the future. This means grid operators and distributors will have to manage future periods of high demand and variable supply. </p>
<p>One of the most efficient solutions is to use storage facilities to soak up energy at times of high output. These can then supply energy when renewable output stops or is intermittent. Batteries are an obvious choice, and Australia will have <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/top-five-energy-storage-projects-in-australia/">several big battery storage plants</a> by 2025. </p>
<p>Before setting up large-scale solar plants, we should assess the impacts of climate change using a range of climate models and different future scenarios to minimise future risks. We should also consider installing hybrid renewable energy plants, such as solar and wind at the same site. This will help optimise the energy mix to reduce intermittency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shukla Poddar is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
</span></em></p>Solar power generation varies greatly depending on the weather. A new study suggests in some parts of Australia, solar has a bright future.Shukla Poddar, Senior Research Fellow, School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140642023-10-15T19:09:56Z2023-10-15T19:09:56ZThe human factor: why Australia’s net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553575/original/file-20231012-15-gcgsi3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=113%2C276%2C4937%2C3335&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/C7B-ExXpOIE">Javier Allegue Barros/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For those people focused on meeting the profound challenge of shifting our economies from fossil fuels to clean energy sources, recent headlines from Europe have made alarming reading.</p>
<p>In September, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-for-germany-heat-pump-election-climate-change/">after five months of fierce controversy</a>, Germany’s ruling coalition managed to pass a law banning new gas boilers in homes and beginning a phase-out of existing ones. Yet public protests and likely electoral setbacks in some parts of the country have forced the government to soften the new law. </p>
<p>That same month, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/20/uk-net-zero-policies-scrapped-what-do-changes-mean">delayed bans</a> on gas boilers, along with new petrol and diesel cars. Climate activists like Al Gore were dismayed, but Sunak said: “If we continue down this path, we risk losing the consent of the British people” (for net zero policies).</p>
<p>And in 2018 the French government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/05/france-wealth-tax-changes-gilets-jaunes-protests-president-macron">scrapped a proposed fuel tax increase</a> after fierce protests from the <em>gilets jaunes</em> (yellow vests) demonstrators. </p>
<p>These conflicts all show that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires not only technology and policy changes but an understanding of the <a href="https://www.traceydodd.com/pdfs/Electricity-markets-in-flux-The-importance-of-a-just-transition.pdf">human element</a> – the individuals, workers and communities whose lives will be profoundly affected by these changes.</p>
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<h2>The concept of a just transition</h2>
<p>To transform our energy system, all of us will need to <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0312896219874096?casa_token=9s4CwT8FHCUAAAAA:w12piwTc-p40uN0kpXPoQJOMqI2BD8q1yEKMxZg0wh0dfUZrT7GPg4tdbRbA2d0wUoSosU_Vbv72GA">join forces</a> to make fundamental changes in our lifestyles. But these changes cannot fall on everyone in the same way; they must be in line with what is called a “just transition”. </p>
<p>The notion of a “<a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-just-transition-and-why-it-important">just transition</a>” emerged from the US labour movement in the 1980s as a means to shield workers from the impact of new pollution regulations that potentially threatened their jobs. Today, it has gained prominence as a fundamental <a href="https://www.oecd.org/publications/unpacking-public-and-private-efforts-on-just-transition-cbd31b13-en.htm">principle for achieving climate goals</a>. </p>
<p>The concept proposes a comprehensive approach that ensures a fair distribution of both the benefits and burdens of any significant economic transition. Properly implemented, it enables governments and other stakeholders to avoid a backlash from the wider population as they seek to enact sweeping and necessary change. </p>
<p>The risk of such a backlash is real. Uncomfortable realities about the fairness of proposed solutions to climate change are emerging. London’s recent expansion of its <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-66592199">ultra-low emissions zone</a> to encompass all the city’s boroughs provoked strong protests. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>Media coverage pitted supporters of the initiative against drivers from low socio-economic backgrounds who struggle to afford low-emissions vehicles and face paying penalties for older, high-emitting cars.</p>
<p>Public discourse concerning the energy transition typically centres around the energy trilemma: ensuring a secure energy supply, reducing carbon emissions, and keeping prices affordable for consumers. Yet vital <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421521005395">distributional and equity aspects</a> both <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-and-inequality-guivarch-mejean-taconet">between and within nations</a> are far less often addressed. </p>
<h2>The potential inequality of climate policies</h2>
<p>The problem is made worse by the rising cost of living, which falls harder on low-income households. In Australia, large- and small-scale energy policies have driven up network costs associated with renewable investments. Low-income households now spend <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/Annual%20Retail%20Market%20Report%202021-22%20-%2030%20November%202022_3.pdf">twice the amount of their disposable income</a> on energy than average-income households do. An increasing number of households are falling into energy debt as they are unable to pay their energy bills. </p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S0301-4215(23)00414-7">research shows</a> that households without access to solar power, many of whom are on low incomes, largely fund government-backed renewable energy programs, since the costs of funding these programs are distributed through energy bills. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>In these programs, governments assure renewable energy developers a fixed energy price to secure their support to provide renewable energy. Consumers who can afford to install solar get cheap power; those who cannot are left paying the difference in their bills. </p>
<p>These pressures help to explain why <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/stunning-collapse-in-confidence-consumer-lose-trust-in-energy-markets/">trust in the energy sector has eroded</a>. The sector needs to put people and communities first in the delivery of products and services.</p>
<h2>Australia’s fairness challenge</h2>
<p>Australia’s task in ensuring a just transition is not easy, when policymakers already have much to do to deliver an integrated climate and energy policy. While our effort on climate change compared to other countries has improved on last year, it <a href="https://ccpi.org/">still ranks 55th</a> in the Climate Change Performance Index, below the USA and China, and its performance is categorised as “very low”.</p>
<p>One risk is that as Australia <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/P1096-Back-of-the-Pack-110821.pdf">falls behind other countries</a> in its energy transition, if it were to suddenly accelerate its net zero ambitions to keep up with the pace of change elsewhere, it could lose sight of the transition costs imposed on different groups.</p>
<p>For example, to-date mining workers have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12289">borne the brunt</a> of costs associated with the transition to renewable energy. Areas with recently closed coal-fired power stations have experienced an average increase in their unemployment rate of around 0.7%, holding other factors constant. Hardest hit have been regions heavily reliant on coal mining and coal-based power generation, such as Victoria’s Latrobe Valley, the Hunter Valley in New South Wales, and Queensland’s Mackay and Fitzroy regions. </p>
<p>People <a href="https://ecology.iww.org/PDF/misc/RuhrorAppalachia_Report_final.pdf">in these areas</a> around the world need plans that help them to learn new skills and find new jobs, and encourage new ways to start businesses and make money. Without such alternatives, people often struggle not only to find jobs and pay bills but to sustain their physical and mental health. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>Governments can reduce the risk climate change poses to their <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/46070">security and reputation</a> by conducting an honest accounting of how green policies affect people’s wallets. They need to be brave and release information on the less visible aspects of the transition, such as rising unemployment in areas traditionally reliant on coal, and higher energy prices for those who rely on grid energy. </p>
<p>The race against time to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 makes the concept of a “just transition” not a far-fetched dream but a dire necessity. Only by addressing the financial and fairness concerns of hard-pressed individuals, workers, and communities is Australia’s journey to a net-zero future assured.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracey Dodd is affiliated with the University of Adelaide and University of Exeter. She is also a Board Member of Green Industries SA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Harvey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The transition to net zero emissions is under grave threat if governments do not do more to address the potential unfairness of some climate policies.Tracey Dodd, Director, Research Development, Adelaide Business School, University of AdelaideWill Harvey, Professor of Leadership and Inaugural Director of the Social Purpose Centre, Melbourne Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2153002023-10-12T15:51:06Z2023-10-12T15:51:06ZIf the first solar entrepreneur hadn’t been kidnapped, would fossil fuels have dominated the 20th century the way they did?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553472/original/file-20231012-27-mjmwd7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1010%2C677&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">George Cove stands next to his third solar array.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2021/10/how-to-build-a-low-tech-solar-panel.html">Popular Electricity Magazine, April 1910 / Low Tech Magazine</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One argument put forward in defence of fossil fuels is that they were a historical necessity, because there was no other viable substitute for much of the 20th century. We owe fossil fuels a debt of gratitude, the argument goes, because they supercharged our development. But what if I told you there was a viable alternative, and that it may have been sabotaged by fossil fuel interests from its very inception?</p>
<p>While researching the <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/person/dr-sugandha-srivastav">economics of clean energy innovation</a>, I came across a little-known story: that of Canadian inventor George Cove, one of the world’s first renewable energy entrepreneurs. Cove invented household solar panels that looked uncannily similar to the ones being installed in homes today – they even had a rudimentary battery to keep power running when the Sun wasn’t shining. Except this wasn’t in the 1970s. Or even the 1950s. This was in 1905.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Modern Electrics newspaper article on solar power" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=866&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553458/original/file-20231012-22-fhllcz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1088&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harnessing sunlight, 114 years ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015051407073&view=1up&seq=5&skin=2021">Modern Electrics / Hathi Trust</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cove’s company, Sun Electric Generator Corporation, based in New York, was capitalised at US$5 million (around US$160 million in <a href="https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1910?amount=5000000">today’s money</a>). By 1909, the idea had gained widespread media attention. <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015051407073&view=1up&seq=5&skin=2021">Modern Electric magazine</a> highlighted how “given two days’ sun… [the device] will store sufficient electrical energy to light an ordinary house for a week”. </p>
<p>It noted how cheap solar energy could liberate people from poverty, “bringing them cheap light, heat and power, and freeing the multitude from the constant struggle for bread”. The piece went on to speculate how even aeroplanes could be powered by batteries charged by the sun. A clean energy future seemed to be there for the taking.</p>
<h2>Vested interests?</h2>
<p>Then, according to a report in The New York Herald on 19 October 1909, Cove was kidnapped. The condition for his release required forgoing his solar patent and shutting down the company. Cove refused and was later released near Bronx Zoo.</p>
<p>But after this incident, his solar business fizzled out. Which seems odd – in the years before the kidnapping, he had developed several iterations of the solar device, improving it each time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Old photo of solar panel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553466/original/file-20231012-29-yypnbw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cove’s solar panel in 1909.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf/page362-943px-The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf.jpg">Technical World Magazine / wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I can’t say with certainty if vested interests were behind it. Some at the time accused Cove of staging the kidnapping for publicity, although this would seem out of character, especially since there was no shortage of media attention. Other <a href="https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/MCR/article/view/17744/22231">sources</a> suggest that a former investor may have been behind it. </p>
<p>What is well-known though, is that fledgling fossil fuel companies commonly deployed <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-robber-barons-matthew-josephson?variant=39939204349986">unscrupulous practices</a> towards their competitors. And solar was a threat as it is an inherently democratic technology – everyone has access to the sun – which can empower citizens and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/03/energy-citizenship-europes-communities-forging-a-low-carbon-future">communities</a>, unlike fossil fuels which necessitate empire-building. </p>
<p>Standard Oil, led by the world’s first billionaire <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-D-Rockefeller">John D Rockefeller</a>, squashed competition so thoroughly that it compelled the government to introduce <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/standard_oil_co._of_new_jersey_v._united_states_(1911)">antitrust laws</a> to combat monopolies.</p>
<p>Similarly, legendary inventor <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Edison">Thomas Edison</a> electrocuted horses, farm animals and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/04/26/thomas-edison-the-electric-chair-and-a-botched-execution-a-death-penalty-primer/">even a human on death row</a> using his rival <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-rise-and-fall-of-nikola-tesla-and-his-tower-11074324/">Nikola Tesla’s</a> <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/war-currents-ac-vs-dc-power">alternating current</a> to show how dangerous it was, so that Edison’s own technology, the direct current, would be favoured. Cove’s Sun Electric, with its off-grid solar, would have harmed Edison’s business case for building out the electric power grid using coal-fired power. </p>
<p>While some scattered efforts in solar development occurred after Cove’s kidnapping, there were no major commercial activities for the next four decades until the concept was <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/document-deep-dive-patent-first-practical-solar-cell-1-180947906/">revived by Bell Labs</a>, the research branch of Bell Telephone Company in the US. In the meantime, coal and oil grew at an unprecedented pace and were supported through taxpayer dollars and government policy. The climate crisis was arguably underway.</p>
<h2>Four lost decades</h2>
<p>When I discovered Cove’s story, I wanted to know what the world lost in those 40 years, and ran a thought experiment. I used a concept called Wright’s law, which has applied to most <a href="https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:17256b64-f822-40ef-8770-5d0fa1ddc73e/download_file?file_format=application%2Fpdf&safe_filename=Way_et_al_2022_Empirically_grounded_technology.pdf&type_of_work=Journal+article">renewables</a> – it’s the idea that as production increases, costs decline due to process improvements and learning.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="George Cove photo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1027&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553470/original/file-20231012-23-eoo4h3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1290&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar pioneer George Cove also patented an early tidal power device.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf/page363-943px-The_Technical_World_Magazine_technicalworldm02unkngoog.pdf.jpg">Technical World Magazine / wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I applied this to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/How-the-kidnapping-of-a-solar-energy-pioneer-impacted-the-cost-of-renewable-energy-and-the-climate-crisis.pdf">calculate</a> the year solar would have become cheaper than coal. To do this, I assumed solar power grew modestly between 1910 and 1950, and worked out how this additional “experience” would have translated into cost declines sooner. </p>
<p>In a world in which Cove succeeded and solar competed with fossil fuels from the get go, it would have trumped coal by as early as 1997 – when Bill Clinton was president and the Spice Girls were in their heyday. In reality, this event occurred in 2017. </p>
<h2>An alternate century</h2>
<p>Of course, this still assumes that the energy system would have been the same. It is possible that if solar were around from 1910 and never disappeared, the entire trajectory of energy innovation could have been very different – for example, maybe more research money would have been directed towards batteries to support decentralised solar. The electric grid and railways that were used to support the coal economy would have received far less investment. </p>
<p>Alternatively, more recent advances in manufacturing may have been essential for solar’s take-off and Cove’s continued work would not have resulted in a major change. Ultimately, it is impossible to know exactly what path humanity would have taken, but I wager that avoiding a 40 year break in solar power’s development could have spared the world huge amounts of carbon emissions.</p>
<p>While it might feel painful to ponder this great “what if” as the climate breaks down in front of our eyes, it can arm us with something useful: the knowledge that drawing energy from the sun is nothing radical or even new. It’s an idea as old as fossil fuel companies themselves. </p>
<p>The continued dominance of fossil fuels into the 21st century was not inevitable – it was a choice, just not one many of us had a say in. Fossil fuels were supported initially because we did not understand their deadly environmental impacts and later because the lobby had grown so powerful that it <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0368-6">resisted</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/14/exxonmobil-documents-wall-street-journal-climate-science">change</a>.</p>
<p>But there is hope: solar energy now provides some of the cheapest electricity humanity has <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea/">ever</a> seen, and the costs are continuing to plummet with deployment. The faster we go, <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/news/decarbonising-energy-system-2050-could-save-trillions">the more we save</a>. If we embrace the spirit of optimism seen during Cove’s time and make the right technology choices, we can still reach the sun-powered world he envisioned all those years ago.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215300/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sugandha Srivastav receives funding from the British Academy and the Climate Compatible Growth Programme. </span></em></p>The 1909 incident may have cost the industry decades of progress – and the planet huge amounts of damaging carbon emissions.Sugandha Srivastav, British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, Environmental Economics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130792023-10-11T19:05:06Z2023-10-11T19:05:06ZA successful energy transition depends on managing when people use power. So how do we make demand more flexible?<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/grid-on-knife-edge-as-project-delays-risk-blackouts-electricity-market-operator-warns-20230830-p5e0iz.html">Energy security concerns</a> are mounting as renewable projects and transmission lines are delayed. </p>
<p>In New South Wales, for instance, the government has flagged it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/05/eraring-coal-fired-power-station-nsw-government-in-talks-to-extend-operation">may defer</a> the closure of Eraring coal power station beyond 2025. </p>
<p>NSW has <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/electricity-supply-and-reliability-check">other new policies</a> to “get the energy transition back on track”. These include expanding “customer energy resources”, such as solar panels and batteries, and increasing “demand flexibility” (broadly, using smart technology to shift the times when businesses and homes use power). </p>
<p>With more variable supply from solar and wind energy, demand flexibility is a cheaper and cleaner way to keep the electricity grid stable.</p>
<p><a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2022/02/load-flexibility-study-technical-summary.pdf">Modelling</a> for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) shows this approach could save consumers up to A$18 billion to 2040. Shifting demand can avoid:</p>
<ul>
<li>higher-priced power use at the end of the day</li>
<li>building new poles and wires to increase network capacity to meet peak demand</li>
<li>paying coal plants to stay open.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of Eraring power station next to coal mine and substation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553135/original/file-20231010-21-lxz4x5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There are cheaper and cleaner ways to keep the power on than paying coal power stations like Eraring to stay open.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CSIRO_ScienceImage_9227_Eraring_Power_Station.jpg">Nick Pitsas, CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-news-theres-a-clean-energy-gold-rush-under-way-well-need-it-to-tackle-energy-price-turbulence-and-coals-exodus-188804">Good news – there's a clean energy gold rush under way. We'll need it to tackle energy price turbulence and coal's exodus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does flexible demand involve?</h2>
<p>Examples of flexible demand include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions-204281">shifting water heating</a> from night-time (mostly coal-powered) to daytime (using solar)</p></li>
<li><p>reducing temperatures in commercial coolrooms using solar power in the middle of the day, then <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/arena-trial-taps-20mw-of-flexible-demand-from-commercial-refrigeration/">switching chillers off</a> in the late afternoon until they return to standard refrigeration temperatures</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/electricity-smart-meters-offer-hope-for-reliable-clean-energy/11766766">remotely controlling air conditioners</a> to turn them down when the grid is under stress. Households get paid and don’t notice if the aircon is briefly turned down, but across many homes it can make a big difference.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-an-energy-crisis-every-watt-counts-so-yes-turning-off-your-dishwasher-can-make-a-difference-185247">In an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2023/2023-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf">estimates</a> NSW needs an extra 191 megawatts (MW) of capacity to maintain reliability when Eraring closes. </p>
<p>Another way to cover that capacity shortfall is more flexible demand. Queensland already has almost <a href="https://www.energex.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/1000452/2022-23-Demand-Management-Plan.pdf">150MW of remote-controlled air conditioning</a>. Other types of demand management that Queensland grid operators can call on total about 900MW.</p>
<p>In Western Australia, a newly signed <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/massive-demand-response-contract-to-boost-flexibility-in-worlds-most-isolated-grid/">contract will provide 120MW</a> of demand flexibility.</p>
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<img alt="The chilled and frozen foods section of a supermarket" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553121/original/file-20231010-17-x1n41q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Commercial refrigeration can be managed to reduce power use at times of peak demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<h2>So what are the obstacles to more flexible demand?</h2>
<p>ARENA commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-bank/demand-flexibility-portfolio-retrospective-analysis-report/">review the pilot demand flexibility projects</a> it has funded. Many didn’t deliver as much as hoped. </p>
<p>Sometimes, this was because businesses were too busy with day-to-day operations or payments for households were too low to catch their interest. But often it’s a matter of putting policies, technical standards and regulations in place to make demand management seamless and efficient.</p>
<p>ARENA has spent about $180 million on 55 projects with at least some focus on flexible demand. They include air conditioning, pool pumps and hot water systems in homes, commercial building air conditioning and electric vehicle charging.</p>
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<h2>4 ways to increase demand flexibility</h2>
<p>What do these projects tell us about how to increase demand flexibility?</p>
<p><strong>1. Better technical standards</strong></p>
<p>The technical standards required of manufacturers often don’t ensure devices can be used to shape demand. Many air-conditioners couldn’t be controlled in ARENA pilots. </p>
<p>There is also no technical standard for “inter-operability” of devices within homes. Batteries, hot water systems and other devices with different companies’ technologies don’t always work well together. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Vehicle-to-grid charging</a> for electric vehicles will be the largest opportunity for demand flexibility, but there is no common technical standard. It’s vital to have one before the mass uptake of electric vehicles.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/owners-of-electric-vehicles-to-be-paid-to-plug-into-the-grid-to-help-avoid-blackouts-132519">Owners of electric vehicles to be paid to plug into the grid to help avoid blackouts</a>
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<p>Outside Victoria, smart meters that provide real-time information on home energy use are rare. The Australian Energy Market Commission has <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/market-reviews-advice/review-regulatory-framework-metering-services">recommended</a> governments accelerate roll-out of smart meters to 100% by 2030.</p>
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<img alt="A smart electricity meter mounted on a wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3008%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550859/original/file-20230928-27-69eic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A full rollout of smart meters will help energy providers and users to manage demand in real time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>2. Simpler measurement systems</strong></p>
<p>The measurement systems to calculate payments for demand flexibility are a barrier to expansion. It’s tricky as you need to measure how much electricity was used relative to what would otherwise have occurred. </p>
<p>ARENA pilots that tried to precisely measure residential demand flexibility found it was financially unviable at the smaller scale. </p>
<p>The system used for AEMO’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/trials-and-initiatives/wholesale-demand-response-mechanism">Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism</a> (WDRM) effectively limits participation to businesses with predictable, flat consumption profiles. This excludes as much as <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2020/wdrm-becm-policy/first-round/oakley-greenwood-report---phase-2-analysis-final-report-march-2021.pdf?la=en">80–90% of sites</a>. <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/initiatives/wdr/baseline_consumption_methodology_phase_2_report_oct13.pdf">International measurement models</a> could be trialled here to open up participation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-demand-response-energy-rules-sound-good-but-the-devil-is-in-the-hugely-complicated-details-120676">New demand-response energy rules sound good, but the devil is in the (hugely complicated) details</a>
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<p><strong>3. More certainty about payments</strong></p>
<p>Earnings from providing demand flexibility depend on weather, market prices and so on. This uncertainty makes it hard to get businesses to sign up. </p>
<p>Overseas, some energy markets guarantee payment for making demand flexibility available. These have the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-06/Updated%20International%20Review%20of%20Demand%20Response%20Mechanisms.pdf">highest participation</a>. </p>
<p>The federal government is <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/capacity-investment-scheme-power-australian-energy-market-transformation">consulting on a capacity investment scheme</a>. Because it will have the same measurement system as the current mechanism, participation is likely to be limited.</p>
<p><strong>4. Fresh policy approaches</strong></p>
<p>Businesses that sign up under the Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism make bids in the National Electricity Market to be <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/initiatives/trials-and-initiatives/wholesale-demand-response-mechanism">paid for reducing their power use</a> when demand and prices are high. This should reduce prices for all consumers and improve energy security when the grid is under stress. However, it has attracted only one participant – mainly due to the complex measurement system – and isn’t open to households.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/networks-pipelines/guidelines-schemes-models-reviews/demand-management-incentive-scheme-and-innovation-allowance-mechanism">incentive scheme</a> for electricity networks to invest in demand management is chronically under-used.</p>
<p>There are simpler alternatives that have worked before. The national <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET">Renewable Energy Target</a> and state energy efficiency certificate schemes fund rooftop solar or energy retrofits based on average output or energy savings from past experience. These simple calculations offer a relatively stable incentive, which could work for demand flexibility. </p>
<p>NSW’s <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/energy-security-safeguard/peak-demand-reduction-scheme">Peak Demand Reduction Scheme</a>, launched last year, could provide a model for using certificate schemes to boost demand flexibility.</p>
<h2>Get serious about demand flexibility</h2>
<p>The focus of NSW’s development of a <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/regulation-and-policy/electricity-supply-and-reliability-check">customer energy resources policy</a> appears to be on “virtual power plants”. These co-ordinate household solar and battery systems to store solar power and export to the grid when it’s most needed. </p>
<p>Batteries are part of the solution, but cheaper options exist. An electric water heater with a 300-litre tank can <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">store as much energy</a> as a second-generation Tesla battery at much less cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Domestic%20Hot%20Water%20and%20Flexibility.pdf">Modelling</a> for ARENA finds hot water systems could store as much energy as more than 2 million household batteries. Retrofitting these systems will spread savings more widely to include low-income households as well as those that can afford a battery.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions-204281">Using electric water heaters to store renewable energy could do the work of 2 million home batteries – and save us billions</a>
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<p>It’s time we got serious about developing a holistic demand flexibility strategy. It will be cheaper and cleaner than paying coal plants to stay open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213079/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Institute for Sustainable Futures is the knowledge sharing agent for the Australiran Renewable Energy Agency's demand flexibility portfolio. ARENA provided funding for the review of its demand flexibility pilots referred to in the article. The views in this article are those of the author and should not be considered the views of ARENA. </span></em></p>Rather than paying ageing power stations to stay open in the transition to renewable energy, demand flexibility is cheaper and cleaner way to ensure the system has enough capacity.Chris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147092023-10-04T19:05:43Z2023-10-04T19:05:43ZMade in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero<p>Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p>In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/08/biden-signs-order-government-net-zero-emissions-2050">to commit the US to net zero</a> by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
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<h2>The IRA changes the landscape</h2>
<p>Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.</p>
<p>The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies</a> could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects</a> in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">create 170,000 jobs</a>, predominantly in Republican-led states.</p>
<p>The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.</p>
<p>This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.</p>
<p>Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Industrial policy to protect the climate</h2>
<p>The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.</p>
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<p>These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/a-united-front-how-the-us-and-the-eu-can-move-beyond-trade-tensions-to-counter-china/">strategic economic nationalism</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.</p>
<p>The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but <a href="https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article14567471.ece">fiercely criticised</a> its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-visits-nasa-talks-space-cooperation-us-visit-begins-2022-11-30/">super aggressive</a>” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-foreign-governments-seek-changes-us-ev-tax-rules-2022-11-08/">trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom</a> on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”</p>
<p>Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-united-states-inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-investment-threat-data/">has responded to the IRA</a> by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/how-inflation-reduction-act-changed-canada">Canada</a>, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/samsung-drives-400-billion-south-korea-plan-to-propel-key-tech?sref=wpjMCURG">South Korea</a> have announced similar programs.</p>
<h2>Why the IRA challenges Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government <a href="https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/newsroom/transforming-australia-s-critical-minerals-sector/">provided a A$1.25 billion loan</a> to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.</p>
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<p>But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green hydrogen production</a> that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/australia-energy-future#:%7E:text=Australia%20has%20vast%20amounts%20of,change%20from%20challenge%20to%20opportunity.">a clean energy superpower</a> – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">'Green steel' is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here's what the hype is all about</a>
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<p>The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>The US will be an essential market for our <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/04/05/the-energy-transition-will-need-more-rare-earth-elements-can-we-secure-them-sustainably/">rare earths</a> such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.</p>
<p>In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/onshoring-and-friend-shoring-us-ev-supply-chains-what-are-boundaries">friend-shoring</a> but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.</p>
<p>The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.” </p>
<p>A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474">Greens’ Dilemma</a>. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.</p>
<p>Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council. </span></em></p>The Biden Administration’s signature climate legislation is unleashing a wave of clean energy investment, along with some opportunities and risks for countries like Australia.Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134282023-09-19T16:04:52Z2023-09-19T16:04:52ZRenewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why<p>Wind and solar are the world’s fastest growing energy sources and together generated <a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">12% of global electricity</a> in 2023. The amount of energy produced by <a href="https://gwec.net/globalwindreport2023/">wind</a> and <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/">solar</a> is expected to increase and accelerate.</p>
<p>Wind generated 1 terawatt (TW) for the first time <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-wind-energy-to-top-1-tw-threshold-by-the-end-of-2023/">in 2023</a> – nearly as much as the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/">total installed energy capacity</a> of the US (1.2 TW). Solar broke this threshold <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/15/humans-have-installed-1-terawatt-of-solar-capacity/">in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>So why in the first <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09_adv.pdf">global stocktake</a> of the world’s progress towards limiting warming to 1.5°C did the UN say we’re still not phasing out fossil fuels fast enough?</p>
<h2>Asia’s economic growth powered by coal</h2>
<p>Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, the most carbon-intensive forms of electricity generation, using coal and natural gas, have risen by <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/">22% and 37% since 2010</a>, respectively. Coal and gas power generation is still the backbone of global energy systems and these fuels are likely to remain dominant for decades to come. Nonetheless, the phase-out of coal (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13053040">arguably</a> the dirtiest of fossil fuels) is gaining momentum. </p>
<p>During the past decade, the number of new coal power plants built each year <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-worlds-coal-power-pipeline-has-shrunk-by-three-quarters/">has fallen fast</a>. Global coal demand has continued to fall even as the war in <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/91982b4e-26dc-41d5-88b1-4c47ea436882/Coal2022.pdf">Ukraine strained gas supplies</a>.</p>
<p>In the most prosperous OECD countries (or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), virtually no new coal plants are <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">planned or being built</a>, though <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">new coal mines</a> are still being approved. This is a result of national <a href="https://beyondfossilfuels.org/europes-coal-exit/">policies</a> such as the UK’s decision to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024">ban coal in power generation</a> from October 2024.</p>
<p>The US has retired many ageing coal plants since the mid-2010s due to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1641462">low price of shale gas</a>. The country’s coal fleet will continue to shrink as 99% of coal projects are <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Coal-Cost-Crossover-3.0-One-Pager.pdf">more expensive</a> than new clean energy, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of wind turbines on a desert plain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increasingly cheap renewables are finally biting into fossil generation in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-turbine-farm-on-desert-land-1994218223">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This picture is very different in Asia. Here, countries have relied heavily on cheap coal to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Cheap-coal-swells-in-Southeast-Asia-foiling-global-green-push">fuel their economies</a>. This is particularly true in China. After adding 27 gigawatts (GW) from coal <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">in 2022 alone</a>, China by itself is offsetting the retirement of coal plants elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>But there are some signs this is changing. The global pipeline for new coal power plants is <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">smaller than ever</a> and China and India both pledged to “<a href="https://on.ft.com/45Sh8gL">phase down coal</a>” in 2021 at the Glasgow climate summit.</p>
<p>So, rapidly increasing renewable energy hasn’t cut coal and gas consumption at the same rate because humankind is using a lot more electricity than we used to, especially in Asia. In the last 20 years, the use of electricity in Europe and North America has remained largely constant. </p>
<p>Here, renewable energy has slowly eaten into the proportion of energy generated by fossil fuels, while all other energy sources (nuclear, hydro, biomass) have remained about the same. In Asia, electricity demand has <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/southeast-asia-growth-energy-security/">tripled since the 2000s</a>, with the bulk of this energy coming from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing the proportion of energy generated by different sources in Europe, North America and Asia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels remain dominant sources of energy in all regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">Ember</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wind and solar are replacing coal and gas</h2>
<p>Western economies have made progress in replacing fossil fuels (and coal in particular) with renewables during the last decade. In Europe and North America, wind has become a vital energy source during the winter months when energy demand peaks. And when the wind isn’t blowing, gas generation <a href="https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q1-2021/when-the-wind-goes-gas-fills-in-the-gap/">fills the gaps</a>.</p>
<p>Solar energy, when combined with batteries which can store excess electricity, is also proving to be a cheaper option than both gas and coal in certain parts of the world. In Australia, the industry association Australian Clean Energy Council found that solar panels and batteries are <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf">30% cheaper</a> than gas power plants during peak demand periods. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg NEF investigation found that batteries alone are <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-already-cheaper-to-install-new-build-battery-storage-than-peaking-plants/">already cheaper</a> than gas power plants during these times. In fact, solar panels may be generating electricity more cheaply than the grid in some cases.</p>
<p>In India, the cost of generating electricity from solar and storing it in batteries to use during high demand hours has <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/cleaner-and-now-cheaper-solar-power-beats-coal/">lower costs</a> than existing coal plants. Combined solar and battery plants can activate during peak hours and turn off again when demand drops, regardless of whether the wind is blowing or the sun shining. </p>
<p>In the US, almost half of new energy projects waiting to connect to the grid combine <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/queued_up_2022_04-06-2023.pdf">solar and wind with storage</a> technologies, allowing renewables to produce electricity on demand regardless of the weather.</p>
<h2>Energy demand is outpacing wind and solar</h2>
<p>Wind and solar has only slowed the rise in fossil fuel burning. This is particularly true for China, India, Thailand and Vietnam. These economies have grown rapidly and so has their power demand. </p>
<p>The replacement with renewables in developed economies is too slow to offset this increase on a global scale. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/13/asia-sails-into-headwinds-from-rate-hikes-war-and-china-slowdown">Cooling economic activity</a> in Asia – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/09/why-china-s-economy-is-slowing-and-why-it-matters/1accc256-3698-11ee-ac4e-e707870e43db_story.html">especially China</a> – might reverse this trend, making a replacement pattern similar to Europe and North America feasible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar chart showing additional power demand and supply from different sources between 2022 and 2025." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demand for electricity has exceeded supply from renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">International Energy Agency (IEA)/Malte Jansen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the warnings in the UN’s stocktake should be heeded, the outlook is not entirely gloomy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">report</a> from December 2022, virtually all new demand between now and 2025 will be satisfied by renewable energy. Wind and solar are expected to supply the bulk of this additional electricity, owing to their <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/">low cost and high availability</a>.</p>
<p>With new wind and solar now cheaper than existing fossil fuel generation, it is only a matter of time before they fully replace all new energy demand first, and replace existing fossil fuels after – even in fast-growing economies. However, as the UN report shows, this process needs to be significantly sped up to avert catastrophic warming.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malte Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the meteoric rise of wind and solar, fossil energy sources have met most new demand in fast-growing economies.Malte Jansen, Lecturer in Energy and Sustainability, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115742023-08-31T14:57:11Z2023-08-31T14:57:11ZRooftop renewables risk making the rich richer, as latecomers will struggle to access the grid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545784/original/file-20230831-27-jj5zgi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C7%2C5161%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wozzie / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people are now becoming “energy citizens” by installing rooftop solar panels and other small-scale renewable energy projects in their properties. </p>
<p>In theory, this is a “win-win”. Added renewable energy brings down the cost of energy, and by replacing fossil fuels, cuts planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. But there is concern that as more people install solar panels and other renewable projects, local electricity grids may become congested. </p>
<p>We wanted to understand this problem and propose a solution, and our latest research has just been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121641">published</a>. Though we focused on Ireland, where we live and work, something similar is happening across much of the world. </p>
<p>We first surveyed the country’s entire electricity infrastructure and discovered that if everyone wanted rooftop solar, then the grid could only serve 5% of the 1.6 million electricity customers studied. </p>
<p>That’s based on each household wanting to install 6 kilowatts of renewables – rooftop solar on one side of a typical house, for instance, or a single small wind turbine – which is the maximum limit supported by the <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/b1fbe-micro-generation/">microgeneration support scheme</a> in Ireland. In other words, if everyone installed solar panels, then 95% of households would not be able to connect them to the national grid.</p>
<p>This appears to mirror the situation at present in electricity grids like that of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00887-6">California</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en15041593">Spain</a> and <a href="https://taz.de/Zu-langsamer-Ausbau-der-Stromnetze/!5902431/">Germany</a>, where early-comers are blocking access for latecomers. While these countries are further ahead in their rollout of rooftop solar, portions of the electricity grid now have no availability for new installations.</p>
<p>This is unfair: often, more well-off households are the first to install solar PV, and benefit from subsidies. It also limits how useful microgeneration can be to the overall goal of decarbonising society.</p>
<h2>A game of musical chairs</h2>
<p>The situation could be compared to a game of musical chairs. </p>
<p>The first problem is the number of chairs: the electricity grid was not designed for every house to produce lots of renewable energy. As the sun shines, for example, every customer with a solar panel must instantly use the electricity or spill it to the grid. </p>
<p>This is fine if only a few customers are spilling, but at a national scale all that spilled energy can exceed the physical capacity of the cables, causing equipment-damaging overvoltage or service interruptions from protection tripping. To prevent this the grid operator must limit the amount of renewable energy connected. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Houses with solar panels on roof" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545790/original/file-20230831-21-2kwhpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If every house looked like this the national grid could not cope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">esbobeldijk / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some ways to address this problem technically – to make more chairs available. These include investing in new cables, or installing home battery banks and timed electric vehicle chargers so that energy use can be better coordinated. But these ideas all come with large financial costs. </p>
<p>Electricity grids in wealthy countries – the Irish grid being a good example – have been under construction for over a century and re-purposing them will be no small feat. Doing this may be even more difficult in emerging economies due to additional struggles to cover the costs.</p>
<p>The second problem is the music, or who gets to sit first. Current policy allows a “first-come first-served” approach to installing renewables, which inevitably gives priority to high-income portions of society to find an empty chair to sit in, and to benefit financially. </p>
<h2>Justice implications</h2>
<p>As the electricity sector is transformed by renewable energy, there are new justice implications worth exploring. Imagine building a house, or moving to an area in the future, to find out that all grid availability has already been taken and it is not possible for you to connect any new solar panels. The direct benefits of owning a clean energy installation are not for you. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that it is possible to adjust this policy to make grid availability a shared resource. First, instead of blanket limits – like the subsidised 6 kilowatts in Ireland – we’ll need a detailed analysis of the grid to work out <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2021.3124999">how much renewable generation per household is fair</a>, or the maximum each can have without affecting others. </p>
<p>This calculation is necessary because that “fair share” varies for customers, as there are technical constraints derived from the user’s location in the grid (how near are they to a substation, how many people does that substation serve, how is it then connected to the wider grid, and so on). </p>
<p>The second way to better share the grid is to acknowledge that some households have the money to install more than their fair share, and instead help everyone else to work together. For instance less interested or capable households could pool their shares in new solar panels or wind turbines in exchange for cheaper electricity derived from those very installations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Annotated maps of Ireland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545780/original/file-20230831-4384-5i149y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The authors simulated how much rooftop solar an average household in Ireland would have in 30 years with current policy (left) and if grid access was considered a shared resource (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192301005X?via%3Dihub#fig6">Cuenca et al</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Factor in equity</h2>
<p>We should recognise some progress. Irish and European institutions are trying to achieve decarbonisation goals, and renewable energy installations are indeed accelerating. The transition to low-carbon energy is now inevitable – the question is not if, but how, the transition is conducted. </p>
<p>But renewable energy shouldn’t exacerbate existing inequalities. Policies for domestic wind and solar should factor in concerns about equity, meaning we could allow all electricity customers to benefit financially from clean energy, and not just from having cleaner air to breathe. </p>
<p>Our new research opens a discussion for regulators and government institutions. This is not about music or chairs, but about the fundamental question of fairness and ownership in a fast-evolving energy sector in Ireland and beyond.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Jose Cuenca Silva received funding from the Government of Ireland through the "CENTS" research project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barry Hayes receives funding Science Foundation Ireland via MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Daly receives funding to support research from MaREI, the SFI Centre for Climate, Energy and the Marine, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, and the Environmental Protection Agency.</span></em></p>Wealthier people are getting their solar panels connected first, leaving a more congested grid for everyone else.Juan José Cuenca Silva, Researcher in Electrical Engineering, University College CorkBarry Hayes, Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Power Systems Engineering, University College CorkHannah Daly, Professor in Sustainable Energy, University College CorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113132023-08-18T10:29:08Z2023-08-18T10:29:08ZRising temperatures mean more air conditioning which means more electricity is needed – rooftop solar is a perfect fit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543032/original/file-20230816-17-3jotxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5215%2C2919&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Douglas Cliff / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On June 12 this year, the UK’s last remaining coal-fired power station was awoken from a 46-day slumber to meet demand for electricity to run air-conditioning units.</p>
<p>These were <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/heating-cooling/uk-air-conditioning-demand-prompts-government-to-rekindle-coal/">rare circumstances</a> as hot weather across the country combined with low wind, a nuclear power station under maintenance and a faulty electricity interconnector with Norway. But the weather is only going to get hotter, and the incident has shed light on the vital role that rooftop solar systems should play in our future energy system.</p>
<p>The absurdity of <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/heating-cooling/uk-air-conditioning-demand-prompts-government-to-rekindle-coal/">resorting to coal to power air conditioners</a> during a UK summer is difficult to miss. This is particularly so given rooftop solar systems are uniquely positioned to meet this demand as high summer temperatures coincide with lots of sunshine. They can also help to shade buildings, effectively reducing demand for cooling and lowering energy consumption.</p>
<p>Cooling demand is not limited to air conditioning and can involve many other energy-intensive processes in homes, supermarkets, offices, hospitals, factories and so on. Up and down the country, motors are driving compressors that are used for cooling fridges, freezers, data centres, food processing industries, water coolers, among many others.</p>
<p>This equipment will operate more intensely as air temperatures rise. According to UK <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019896/cooling-in-uk.pdf">government estimates</a>, peak cooling demand during a heat wave can be twice as high as an average summer day. </p>
<h2>Cooling benefits of rooftop solar panels</h2>
<p>Rooftop solar can also reduce demand for cooling by keeping buildings in the shade. A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339385282_Effects_of_Rooftop_Photovoltaics_on_Building_Cooling_Demand_and_Sensible_Heat_Flux_Into_the_Environment_for_an_Installation_on_a_White_Roof">study</a> conducted by Arizona State University found that even a modest group of solar panels that shade about half a roof can lead to anything from 2% to 13% reduction in cooling demand, depending on factors such as location, roof type and insulation levels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="3D map of city" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543243/original/file-20230817-25-6c4ix9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Google Earth’s 3D mapping of Nottingham.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although rooftop solar is being installed <a href="https://preview.mailerlite.io/emails/webview/249617/96214796274239244">faster than ever</a> in the UK, it is still greatly under-used and only on roughly one in 30 buildings. The recent 3D mapping of whole towns and cities means it has become possible to estimate the potential more accurately. Tools such as <a href="https://insights.sustainability.google/">Google Environmental Insights</a> analyse satellite imagery not only to see how many modules might be installed across our city skylines, but where they should be installed in order to minimise shading and generate the most electricity.</p>
<p>Consider the possibilities for Nottingham and Coventry, two cities in England’s Midlands where we work. If Nottingham were to maximise its rooftop potential, all those panels could generate nearly 500 megawatts (MW) of electricity, about the same as a medium-sized gas power plant. Coventry has greater potential, with 700MW. These capacities would equate to nearly one-third of Nottingham’s electricity demand and almost half of Coventry’s – from their rooftops alone.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="shaded satellite image of city" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543244/original/file-20230817-17-pxmwpx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Google Environmental Insight’s solar PV calculation for Nottingham.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://insights.sustainability.google/">Google Environmental Insight</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the planet experiencing its hottest temperature in <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-really-hotter-now-than-any-time-in-100-000-years-210126">around 120,000 years</a>, keeping buildings cool will be vital. For now, cooling demand is predominantly driven by non-domestic buildings, but <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019896/cooling-in-uk.pdf">projections</a> indicate that by the end of the century around 80% may come from homes.</p>
<p>This makes things awkward, as domestic air-conditioners tend to be used most in the evenings when people return after work or school – not during the day when the sun is shining. Researchers in Australia have proposed a <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/08/29/researchers-explore-rooftop-pv-for-pre-cooling-of-residential-commercial-buildings/">clever solution</a> to address this imbalance by programming air-conditioning units to work in tandem with solar systems to pre-cool buildings before people arrive home.</p>
<p>In the face of evolving climate challenges, the pivotal role of solar systems in addressing summer cooling demand and enhancing climate resilience is becoming evermore evident. While an unusual reliance on coal-fired power for air conditioning underscored this urgency in June, an interesting observation emerged the following month: despite July being cool, cloudy and rainy, solar panels still contributed around 8% of UK electricity demand. This surpassed the value for July 2022, despite that summer’s record-breaking temperatures. </p>
<p>What had happened? Though solar panel generation was down 7% this July, overall electricity demand decreased by 15%, in part due to a substantially reduced demand for cooling. The link between the two is very clear.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sunniest days also see the biggest demand for air con.Tom Rogers, Senior Lecturer in Sustainable Energy Engineering, Nottingham Trent UniversityAmin Al-Habaibeh, Professor of Intelligent Engineering Systems, Nottingham Trent UniversityAngelines Donastorg Sosa, Assistant Lecturer in Renewable Energy & Energy Management, Coventry UniversityVahid Vahidinasab, Associate Professor of Power and Energy Systems, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2113472023-08-16T20:04:42Z2023-08-16T20:04:42ZA green roof or rooftop solar? You can combine them in a biosolar roof, boosting both biodiversity and power output<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542944/original/file-20230816-19-ud5god.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing city populations and limited space are driving the adoption of green roofs and green walls covered with living plants. As well as boosting biodiversity, green roofs could play another unexpectedly valuable role by increasing the electricity output of solar panels. </p>
<p>As solar panels heat up beyond 25°C, their efficiency <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.06.037">decreases markedly</a>. Green roofs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119443">moderate rooftop temperatures</a>. So we wanted to find out: could green roofs help with the problem of heat reducing the output of solar panels?</p>
<p><a href="https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/150142/2/City%20of%20Sydney%20Final%20Report%20EPI%20R3%20201920005.pdf">Our research</a> compared a “biosolar” green roof – one that combines a solar system with a green roof – and a comparable conventional roof with an equivalent solar system. We measured the impacts on biodiversity and solar output, as well as how the plants coped with having panels installed above them. </p>
<p>The green roof supported much more biodiversity, as one might expect. By reducing average maximum temperatures by about 8°C, it increased solar generation by as much as 107% during peak periods. And while some plant species outperformed others, the vegetation flourished.</p>
<p>These results show we don’t have to choose between a green roof or a solar roof: we can combine the two and reap double the rewards.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pz3PiqzGxEQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Daramu House in the Sydney CBD has a large array of solar panels installed over a green roof.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despairing-about-climate-change-these-4-charts-on-the-unstoppable-growth-of-solar-may-change-your-mind-204901">Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How was the study done?</h2>
<p>Many studies have tested a single rooftop divided into “green roof” and “non-green roof” sections to measure the differences caused by vegetation. A problem with such studies is “spatial confounding” – the effects of two nearby spaces influencing one another. So, for example, the cooler green roof section could moderate the temperature of the non-green section next to it.</p>
<p>In studies that use distinct buildings, the buildings might be too far apart or too different in construction to be comparable.</p>
<p>The two buildings in our study were the same height, size and shape and located next to each other in Sydney’s central business district. The only difference was Daramu House had a green roof and International House did not.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/150142/2/City%20of%20Sydney%20Final%20Report%20EPI%20R3%20201920005.pdf">selected a mix</a> of native and non-native grasses and non-woody plants, which would flower across all seasons, to attract diverse animal species.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542713/original/file-20230815-23-s0cct9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(A) The study site location (red dot) in the Sydney central business district. (B) Architectural design of Daramu House. (C) Rooftop view looking south, showing plantings around and underneath solar panels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/150142/2/City%20of%20Sydney%20Final%20Report%20EPI%20R3%20201920005.pdf">Green Roof & Solar Array – Comparative Research Project</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biosolar green roof and conventional roof had the same area, about 1860 square metres, with roughly a third covered by solar panels. Vegetation covered about 78% of the green roof and the solar panels covered 40% of this planted area.</p>
<p>To identify which species were present on the roofs we used motion-sensing cameras and sampled for DNA traces. We documented changes in the green roof vegetation to record how shading by the solar panels affected the plants.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/greening-our-grey-cities-heres-how-green-roofs-and-walls-can-flourish-in-australia-139478">Greening our grey cities: here's how green roofs and walls can flourish in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did the panels affect the plants?</h2>
<p>In the open areas, we observed minimal changes in the vegetation cover over the study period compared to the initial planted community. </p>
<p>Plant growth was fastest and healthiest in the areas immediately around the solar panels. Several species doubled in coverage. We selected fast-growing vegetation for this section to achieve full coverage of the green roof beds as soon as possible.</p>
<p>The vegetation changed the most in the areas directly below and surrounding the solar panels. The Baby Sun Rose, <em>Aptenia cordifolia</em>, emerged as the dominant plant. It occupied most of the space beneath and surrounding the solar panels, despite having been planted in relatively low densities. </p>
<p>This was surprising: it was not expected the plants would prefer the shaded areas under the panels to the open areas. This shows that shading by solar panels will not prevent the growth of full and healthy roof gardens.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=818&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542714/original/file-20230815-29045-mip8m6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1028&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(A) An example of evenly distributed plant cover around solar panels. (B) <em>Aptenia cordifolia</em> (Baby Sun Rose) came to dominate the area beneath solar panels. Minor cover of <em>Viola hederacea</em> can also be seen. (C) Vegetation around solar panels along the outside of east section of the roof. (D) Additional evidence of the dominance of <em>A. cordifolia</em> beneath the panels and dieback directly under them. (E) Relatively even cover of a range of species and marked increase in height in <em>Goodenia ovata</em> (Hop Goodenia). (F) Substantial height increases for the entire vegetation community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/150142/2/City%20of%20Sydney%20Final%20Report%20EPI%20R3%20201920005.pdf">Green Roof & Solar Array – Comparative Research Project</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-on-a-roof-why-new-zealands-move-towards-greater-urban-density-should-see-a-rooftop-revolution-172226">Up on a roof: why New Zealand's move towards greater urban density should see a rooftop revolution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What were the biodiversity impacts?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542721/original/file-20230815-19-5rlkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">eDNA sampling on site.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We used environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to compare biodiversity on the green roof and conventional roof. Water run-off samples were collected from both roofs and processed on site using portable citizen scientist <a href="https://www.smith-root.com/edna/edna-citizen-scientist-sampler">eDNA sampling equipment</a> to detect traces of DNA shed by the species on the roof. </p>
<p>The eDNA surveys detected a diverse range of species. These included some species (such as algae and fungi) that are not easily detected using other survey methods. The results confirmed the presence of bird species recorded by the cameras but also showed other visiting bird species went undetected by the cameras. </p>
<p>Overall, the green roof supported four times as many species of birds, over seven times as many arthropods such as insects, spiders and millipedes, and twice as many snail and slug species as the conventional roof. There was many times the diversity of microorganisms such as algae and fungi. </p>
<p>Encouragingly, the green roof attracted species unexpected in the city. They included blue-banded bees (<em>Amegilla cingulata</em>) and metallic shield bugs (<em>Scutiphora pedicellata</em>).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bee with blue bands on a flower" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542918/original/file-20230816-22-9cxflo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blue-banded bees were among the unexpected visitors to the green roof.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Amegilla_cingulata_on_long_tube_of_Acanthus_ilicifolius_flower.jpg">Chiswick Chap/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-state-of-the-environment-is-grim-but-you-can-make-a-difference-right-in-your-own-neighbourhoood-187259">Yes, the state of the environment is grim, but you can make a difference, right in your own neighbourhoood</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did the green roof alter temperatures?</h2>
<p>The green roof reduced surface temperatures by up to 9.63°C for the solar panels and 6.93°C for the roof surfaces. An 8°C reduction in average peak temperature on the green roof would result in substantial heating and cooling energy savings inside the building. </p>
<p>This lowering of temperatures increased the maximum output of the solar panels by 21-107%, depending on the month. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109703">Performance modelling</a> indicates an extensive green roof in central Sydney can, on average, produce 4.5% more electricity at any given light level.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="2 graphs showing temperatures and solar power output for biosolar green roof and conventional roof" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542712/original/file-20230815-25187-3vc42q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Energy output (left) and surface temperatures (right) of solar panels on a biosolar green roof and on a conventional roof.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/150142/2/City%20of%20Sydney%20Final%20Report%20EPI%20R3%20201920005.pdf">Data: Green Roof & Solar Array – Comparative Research Project</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These results show we don’t have to choose between a green roof or a solar roof. We can combine them to take advantage of the many benefits of biosolar green roofs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-roofs-improve-the-urban-environment-so-why-dont-all-buildings-have-them-123420">Green roofs improve the urban environment – so why don't all buildings have them?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Biosolar roofs can help get cities to net zero</h2>
<p>The next step is to design green roofs and their plantings specifically to enhance biodiversity. Green roofs and other green infrastructure may alter urban wildlife’s activities and could eventually attract non-urban species.</p>
<p>Our green roof also decreased stormwater runoff, removed a range of run-off pollutants and insulated the building from extremes of temperature. A relatively inexpensive system provides all of these services with moderate maintenance and, best of all, zero energy inputs. </p>
<p>Clearly, biosolar green roofs could make major contributions to net-zero cities. And all that’s needed is space that currently has no other use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Irga receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The City of Sydney and NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. Peter Irga engages with the Australian Flora Foundation and the Australian Green Infrastructure Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eamonn Wooster receives funding from The City of Sydney. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fraser R Torpy receives funding from The Australian Research Council, the City of Sydney and NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Rojahn receives funding from The Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Fleck receives funding from The City of Sydney and NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.. </span></em></p>A new study shows we can maximise the benefits of green roofs and rooftop solar systems by putting them together on the one roof.Peter Irga, ARC DECRA Fellow and Lecturer in Air and Noise Pollution, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyEamonn Wooster, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt UniversityFraser R Torpy, Director, Plants and Environmental Quality Research Group, University of Technology SydneyJack Rojahn, PhD Candidate, Institute for Applied Ecology, University of CanberraRobert Fleck, Research Scientist, School of Life Sciences, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102032023-08-14T16:26:49Z2023-08-14T16:26:49ZWe could soon be getting energy from solar power harvested in space<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541548/original/file-20230807-16276-suan5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1332%2C1661%2C7095%2C3952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunrise-space-over-planet-earth-vibrant-1480432736">StudioFI / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The idea of space-based solar power (SBSP) – using satellites to collect energy from the sun and “beam” it to collection points on Earth – has been around since at least the late 1960s. Despite its huge potential, the concept has not gained sufficient traction due to cost and technological hurdles.</p>
<p>Can some of these problems now be solved? If so, SBSP could become a vital part of the world’s transition away from fossil fuels to green energy.</p>
<p>We already harvest energy from the sun. It’s collected directly through what we generally call solar power. This comprises different technologies such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics">photovoltaics</a> (PV) and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy">solar-thermal energy</a>. The sun’s energy is also gathered indirectly: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power">wind energy</a> is an example of this, because breezes are generated by uneven heating of the atmosphere by the sun. </p>
<p>But these green forms of power generation have limitations. They take up lots of space on land and are limited by the availability of light and wind. For example, solar farms don’t collect energy at night and gather less of it in winter and on cloudy days.</p>
<p>PV in orbit won’t be limited by the onset of night. A satellite in geostationary orbit (GEO) – a circular orbit around 36,000 km above the Earth – is exposed to the Sun for more than 99% of the time during a whole year. This allows it to produce green energy 24/7. </p>
<p>GEO is ideal for when energy needs to be sent from the spacecraft to an energy collector, or ground station, because satellites here are stationary with respect to the Earth. <a href="https://spaceenergyinitiative.org.uk/how-solar-farms-in-space-might-beam-electricity-to-earth/">It’s thought</a> that there’s 100 times more solar power available from GEO, than the estimated global power demands of humanity by 2050. </p>
<p>Transferring energy collected in space to the ground requires wireless power transmission. Using microwaves for this minimises the energy lost in the atmosphere, even through cloudy skies. The microwave beam sent by the satellite will be focused towards the ground station, where antennas convert the electromagnetic waves back into electricity. The ground station will need to have a diameter of 5 km, or more at high latitudes. However, this is still smaller than the areas of land needed to produce the same amount of power using solar or wind.</p>
<h2>Evolving concepts</h2>
<p>Numerous designs have been proposed since the first concept by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3856.857">Peter Glaser</a> in 1968.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Drawing from U.S. Patent depicting Peter Glaser’s satellite-based method for converting solar radiation to electrical power." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542299/original/file-20230811-27-ftk7sw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drawing depicting Peter Glaser’s satellite-based method for converting solar radiation to electrical power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">U.S. Patent Office</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In SBSP, the energy is converted several times (light to electricity to microwaves to electricity), and some of it is lost as heat. In order to inject 2 gigawatts (GW) of power into the grid, about 10 GW of power will need to be collected by the satellite.</p>
<p>A recent concept called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2019.03.063">CASSIOPeiA</a> consists of two 2km-wide steerable reflectors. These reflect the sunlight into an array of solar panels. These power transmitters, approximately 1,700 metres in diameter, can be pointed at the ground station. It is estimated that the satellite could have a mass of 2,000 tonnes.</p>
<p>Another architecture, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2011_Practical_Solar_Power_Satellite/">SPS-ALPHA</a>, differs from CASSIOPeiA in that the solar collector is a large structure formed by a huge number of small, modular reflectors called heliostats, each of which can be independently moved. They are mass-produced to reduce cost.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artistic impression of the SPS-ALPHA concept: many small refractors, or heliostats, are visible, focusing light into the satellite." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542300/original/file-20230811-23-hn8w80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artistic impression of the SPS-ALPHA concept.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/John Mankins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2023, scientists at Caltech launched <a href="https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/in-a-first-caltechs-space-solar-power-demonstrator-wirelessly-transmits-power-in-space">MAPLE</a>, a small-scale satellite experiment which beamed a tiny amount of power back to Caltech. MAPLE proved the technology could be used to deliver power to Earth.</p>
<h2>National and international interest</h2>
<p>SBSP could play a crucial role to meet the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-strategy">UK’s net-zero target by 2050</a> – but the government’s current strategy does not include it. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/space-based-solar-power-de-risking-the-pathway-to-net-zero">An independent study</a> found that SBSP could generate up to 10GW of electricity by 2050, one-quarter of the UK’s current demand. SBSP provides a secure and stable energy supply.</p>
<p>It will also create a multi billion-pound industry, with 143,000 jobs across the country. The European Space Agency is currently evaluating the viability of SBSP with its <a href="https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Technology/SOLARIS/SOLARIS2">SOLARIS initiative</a>. This could be followed by a full development plan for the technology by 2025.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.engadget.com/2019-02-18-china-solar-farm-power-station-space-2025.html">Other</a> <a href="https://www.engadget.com/japan-will-try-to-beam-solar-power-from-space-by-2025-214338244.html">countries</a> have recently announced the intention to beam power to Earth by 2025, moving to larger systems within the next two decades.</p>
<h2>A massive satellite</h2>
<p>If the technology is ready, why is SBSP not being used? The main limit is the enormous amount of mass that needs to be launched into space, and its cost per kilogram. Companies such as <a href="https://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a> and <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/">Blue Origin</a> are developing heavy-lift launch vehicles, with a focus on reusing parts of those vehicles after they have flown. This can bring the cost of the venture down by 90%.</p>
<p>Even using <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/">SpaceX’s Starship</a> vehicle, which can launch 150 tonnes of cargo into low Earth orbit, the SBSP satellite will require hundreds of launches. Some components, such as long structural trusses – structural elements designed to span long distances – could be <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/3d-printing-in-space-long-duration-spaceflight-applications">3D-printed</a> <a href="https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/nea_resource.html">in space</a>.</p>
<h2>Challenges and risks</h2>
<p>An SBSP mission will be challenging – and risks still need to be fully assessed. While the electricity produced is fully green, the impact of the pollution from hundreds of heavy-lift launches <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220713-how-to-make-rocket-launches-less-polluting">is difficult to predict</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, controlling such a large structure in space will require substantial amounts of fuel, which involves engineers working with sometimes very toxic chemicals. The photovoltaic solar panels will be affected by degradation, reducing efficiency over time from 1% to 10% per year. However, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/servicing/index.html">servicing</a> and <a href="https://spacenews.com/orbit-fab-secures-deal-to-refuel-astroscales-in-space-servicing-robots/">refuelling</a> <a href="https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Discovery_and_Preparation/ESA_moves_ahead_with_In-Orbit_Servicing_missions2">could be used</a> to extend the satellite’s lifetime almost indefinitely.</p>
<p>A beam of microwaves powerful enough to reach the ground could also harm anything that got in the way. For safety, then, the power density of the beam will have to be restricted.</p>
<p>The challenge of building platforms like this in space may seem daunting, but space-based solar power is technologically feasible. To be economically viable, it requires large-scale engineering, and therefore long-term and decisive commitment from governments and space agencies.</p>
<p>But with all that in place, SBSP could make a fundamental contribution to delivering net zero by 2050 with sustainable, clean energy from space.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matteo Ceriotti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Solar panels in space could harness more of the Sun’s energy.Matteo Ceriotti, Senior Lecturer in Space Systems Engineering, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2110742023-08-09T16:00:00Z2023-08-09T16:00:00ZBats are avoiding solar farms and scientists aren’t sure why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541916/original/file-20230809-27-djlg20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=161%2C201%2C3932%2C2751&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The common pipistrelle.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flying-pipistrelle-bat-pipistrellus-action-shot-1407591011">Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As our planet continues to warm, the need for renewable energy is becoming increasingly urgent. Almost half of the UK’s electricity now comes from renewable sources. And solar <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1165986/Energy_Trends_June_2023.pdf">accounts for one-fifth</a> of the energy capacity installed since 2019.</p>
<p>Solar farms are now a striking feature of the British landscape. But despite their growth, we’re still largely in the dark about how solar farms impact biodiversity. </p>
<p>This was the focus of a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.14474">recent study</a> that I co-authored alongside colleagues from the University of Bristol. We found that bat activity is reduced at solar farms compared to neighbouring sites without solar panels. </p>
<p>This discovery is concerning. Bats are top predators of nighttime insects and are sensitive to changes in their habitats, so they are important indicators of ecosystem health. Bats also <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1505413112">provide valuable services</a> such as suppressing populations of insect pests. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, our results should not hinder the transition to renewable energy. Instead, they should help to craft strategies that not only encourage bat activity but also support the necessary expansion of clean energy sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial shot of a solar farm in south Wales." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541917/original/file-20230809-26-hb1q0k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar farms are now a striking feature of the British landscape.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-drone-view-solar-panels-energy-1234126882">steved_np3/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reduced activity</h2>
<p>We measured bat activity by recording their ultrasonic echolocation calls on bat detectors. Many bat species have distinctive echolocation calls, so we could identify call sequences for each species in many cases. Some species show similar calls, so we lumped them together in species groups. </p>
<p>We placed bat detectors in a solar farm field and a similar neighbouring field without solar panels (called the control site). The fields were matched in size, land use and boundary features (such as having similar hedges) as far as possible. The only major difference was whether they contained solar panels. </p>
<p>We monitored 19 pairs of these sites, each for a week, observing bat activity within the fields’ centre and along their boundaries. Field boundaries are used by bats for navigation and feeding. </p>
<p>Six of the eight bat species or groups studied were less active in the fields with solar panels compared to the fields without them. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/common-pipistrelle">Common pipistrelles</a>, which made up almost half of all bat activity, showed a decrease of 40% at the edges of solar panel fields and 86% in their centre. Other bat species or groups like <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/soprano-pipistrelle-bat/">soprano pipistrelles</a>, <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/noctule-bat/">noctules</a>, <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/animals/mammals/serotine-bat/">serotines</a>, <a href="https://www.northumberlandbats.org.uk/home/bat-info/northumbrian-bats/myotis-bats/">myotis bats</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/long-eared-bat">long-eared bats</a> also saw their activity drop. </p>
<p>Total bat activity was almost halved at the boundaries of solar panel fields compared to that of control sites. And at the centre of solar panel fields, bat activity dropped by two-thirds. </p>
<h2>Why are bats avoiding solar farms?</h2>
<p>Conflict between clean energy production and biodiversity isn’t just limited to solar farms; it’s an issue at wind farms too. Large numbers of bats are killed by colliding with the blades of wind turbines. In 2012, for example, one academic estimated that around <a href="https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wsb.260">888,000 bats may have been killed</a> at wind energy facilities in the United States.</p>
<p>The way solar farms affect bats is probably more indirect than this. Solar panels could, in theory, inadvertently reduce the abundance of insects by lowering the availability of the plants they feed on. We’re currently investigating whether there’s a difference in insect numbers at the solar farm sites compared to the control sites. </p>
<p>Solar panels may also reflect a bats’ echolocation calls, making insect detection more difficult. Reduced feeding success around the panels may result in fewer bats using the surrounding hedgerows for commuting, potentially explaining our findings. </p>
<p>However, bats <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam7817">are also known</a> to collide with smooth vertical flat surfaces because they reflect echolocation calls away from bats and hence appear as empty space. Research has also found that bats sometimes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1110">attempt to drink from horizontal smooth surfaces</a> because they interpret the perpendicular echoes as coming from still water. But, given the sloped orientation of solar panels, these potential direct effects may not be of primary concern.</p>
<h2>Improving habitats</h2>
<p>An important lesson from the development of wind energy is that win-win solutions exist. Ultrasonic acoustic deterrents can <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065794">keep bats away</a> from wind turbines, while slightly reducing the wind speed that turbines become operational at (known as “cut-in speeds”) <a href="https://www.conservationevidence.com/actions/1960">has reduced bat fatality rates</a> with minimal losses to energy production. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/03/f20/Operational-Mitigation-Synthesis-FINAL-REPORT-UPDATED.pdf">Research</a> suggests that increasing turbine cut-in speeds by 1.5 metres per second can reduce bat fatalities by at least 50%, with an annual loss to power output below 1%.</p>
<p>A slightly different approach could be applied to solar farms. Improving habitats by planting native trees along the boundaries of solar farm fields could potentially increase the availability of insects for bats to feed on. </p>
<p>Research that I have co-authored in recent years supports this theory. We found that the presence of landscape features such as <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13412">tall hedgerows</a> and even <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320722000295">isolated trees</a> on farmland has a positive effect on bat activity.</p>
<p>Carefully selecting solar sites is also important. Prior to construction, conducting environmental impact assessments could indicate the value of proposed sites to bat populations. </p>
<p>More radically, rethinking the siting of these sites so that most are placed on buildings or in areas that are rarely visited by bats, could limit their impact on bat populations. </p>
<p>Solar power is the <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/solar-pv">fastest-growing source</a> of renewable energy worldwide. Its capacity is projected to overtake natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. Ensuring that its ecological footprint remains minimal is now particularly important. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research has found that bats avoid solar farms – but the findings should not hinder the transition to renewable energy.Gareth Jones, Professor of Biological Sciences, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040322023-06-14T03:49:04Z2023-06-14T03:49:04ZMany First Nations communities swelter without power. Why isn’t there solar on every rooftop?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531846/original/file-20230614-29-zdp3hb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C24%2C3995%2C2993&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Original Power</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over 3.4 million <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-01/rooftop-solar-to-overtake-coal-as-australias-main-power-source/102033740#:%7E:text=A%20new%20report%20from%20industry,business%20roofs%20across%20the%20country.">Australian houses</a> now have rooftop solar, often subsidised by <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/consumers/buying-solar/government-programs">government incentives</a>. </p>
<p>But in remote First Nations communities in the Northern Territory, you don’t see solar on any rooftops. That’s a real problem. This part of Australia is dangerously hot in summer. And many people don’t have enough power to run vital appliances like the fridge and air conditioner. </p>
<p>Solar would be an ideal solution. Tennant Creek has over 300 days per year of sunshine with some of the clearest skies in the world, for instance. </p>
<p>Only recently, co-author and Warumungu elder Frank Jupurrurla took part in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02831-4">first NT rooftop solar trial</a>, supported by <a href="http://originalpower.org.au">Original Power</a> and installed rooftop solar on his house. </p>
<p>As our new research found, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2023.2214959?src=">this pilot</a> worked well, supplying a third of the house’s power and ending the problem of power disconnecting. Previously, the power would go out once a month on average. After solar, it never went off. </p>
<p>So why isn’t this widely available? The main problems are red tape, such as getting approval for work on public housing, securing feed in tariffs and metering requirements. As Mr Jupurrurla’s experience demonstrates, they can all be overcome – but not easily. </p>
<p>As Frank Jupurrurla says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We call the sun Kilyirr […] Right now he’s shining on my panels, he’s giving me power, and he looks after us. So that Kilyirr, he gonna be there forever. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar trial tennant creek" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531851/original/file-20230614-27-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sun after red tape: Frank Jupurrurla (centre), with family members Serena and Nina-Simone (left) and Lauren Mellor (Original Power).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Original Power</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do remote communities get power at present?</h2>
<p>Prepaid electricity is used in many remote First Nations households across Australia, and in almost all town camps. In this model, people “top up” the meter with credit. When credit runs out, the electricity disconnects until more credit is purchased. The electricity here is often produced by diesel generators. </p>
<p>Despite the risk of sudden disconnection, this model is often preferred by many communities as it gives residents fewer surprise bills. The downside is it often leads to an unenviable choice – power or food. </p>
<p>For residents of Tennant Creek’s <a href="https://www.wilyajanta.org/warlinginchi-apa">town camps</a>, it is not uncommon to run out of credit on a hot day. The hotter the day, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00942-2">higher the chance</a> people will lose power. That’s because hotter weather forces air conditioners and fridges to work harder. </p>
<p>When the power goes off, food inside fridges starts to spoil. Essential medical devices such as oxygen concentrators stop operating. Medications can become inactive or even <a href="https://journals.lww.com/nursing/Citation/2019/08000/Can_medications_become_harmful_after_the.4.aspx">toxic</a>. </p>
<p>Air conditioners stop working and temperatures rise. On very hot days, the inside of a house gets well over 40°C. Children and adults can’t sleep. Going to school gets harder. Not only are these conditions unsafe, they can drive <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00210-2/fulltext">social disharmony</a>. </p>
<p>As Frank Jupurrurla says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We struggle every day. Our people, they’re not healthy. Lots of people in this town are on renal [dialysis]. Solar should be talked about in parliament and put on the table.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Did the trial help?</h2>
<p>A 6.6 kilowatt solar array was installed on Mr Jupurrurla’s house and switched on in November 2021. The house kept its grid connection and no battery was installed. Household residents received a crash course from the installers, First Nations organisation <a href="http://originalpower.org.au">Original Power</a>, on making the most of the solar for example by running the washing machine during daylight hours. </p>
<p>The result? Solar generates a third of the total power use in any given month. But more importantly, through reducing energy costs, disconnections stopped entirely. This removed a huge source of stress and made the home safer and more enjoyable, according to the family. </p>
<p>As Mr Jupurrurla says: “We used to put a lot of power cards in nearly every day, second day. Now we got money all the time since we’ve got solar.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar install trial tennant creek" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531849/original/file-20230614-28-7916dl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Installation took a fraction of the time to get approvals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Original Power</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solar is a great solution – but only if it’s made easy</h2>
<p>It sounds simple: install a 6.6kW array and see what difference it made. After all, people in the cities can do this routinely. </p>
<p>But it’s harder far from the cities, and harder still when different government departments have to sign off. As Mr Jupurrurla describes: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The barriers was from the day we started. Before that, we’d argue with [Department of] Housing, and they said we have to check inside and check if the house is strong enough. Once we had the panels on, then it took us a while to [turn] it on. It was pretty frustrating. It took Power and Water more than three months just to switch the switch on. It was so hard. I rang the housing minister but nothing happened. So one day I just went out there to the box and switched it on myself </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Installing solar here meant overcoming regulatory barriers such as securing feed-in tariffs for excess power produced, ensuring the public housing is high-quality enough to host solar, and the question of ownership of the panels. </p>
<p>The NT housing department required an engineer’s sign off on the roof’s structural integrity, as this can’t be assumed for remote public housing. </p>
<p>As Mr Jupurrurla’s experience demonstrates, these barriers can be overcome – but not easily. </p>
<h2>What’s stopping a wider rollout?</h2>
<p>Our trial shows solar can work well for remote communities. The timing is good, as the ongoing roll-out of smart prepay meters means most remote First Nations houses in the NT are able to <a href="https://www.securemeters.com/au/product/smart-prepayment-electricity/direct-connected-meter-smart-prepayment-electricity/liberty-120/">handle solar</a>. </p>
<p>For this to gain momentum, the NT government must find ways to overcome these barriers. The Territory government has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/nt-supreme-court-finds-for-santa-teresa-public-housing-tenants/100804718">responsibilities</a> as both the landlord for <a href="https://tfhc.nt.gov.au/housing-and-homelessness">housing</a> and as the <a href="https://www.powerwater.com.au/">monopoly energy provider</a>. </p>
<p>A key first step would be to smooth the path with clear paperwork and incentives for prepay households to install solar. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="northern territory remote community" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531850/original/file-20230614-4630-exhvab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">No solar to be seen: remote communities in the Northern Territory often lack reliable power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Just as in the cities, encouraging solar will require financial incentives to offset the upfront cost, with <a href="https://www.highwaylearning.com/translation/powerstory/videos/PowerStory-Luritja.mp4">culturally appropriate</a> resources available in First Nations languages to explain the process. </p>
<p>Feed-in tariffs have long driven demand for solar for many homeowners. Ensuring remote communities are eligible will be vital. </p>
<p>Australian households are world leaders in taking up solar. But for too long, the ability to generate your own power from the sun has been off limits to many of the people who would benefit the most. </p>
<p>This year is an excellent time to correct this, as the federal government works towards a co-designed <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-and-climate-change-ministerial-council/priorities/national-energy-transformation-partnership/first-nations-clean-energy-strategy">First Nations Clean Energy Strategy</a> and the NT government’s plans for <a href="https://territoryrenewableenergy.nt.gov.au/strategies-and-plans/electricity-system-plans#Remote-power-system-strategy">better power solutions</a> in remote communities. </p>
<p>As Frank Jupurrurla says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’d like to see government fund […] panels on homes. Especially in the Community Living Areas [Town Camps] in places like Alice Springs, Tenant Creek, and Katherine.</p>
</blockquote>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-turning-remote-indigenous-houses-into-dangerous-hot-boxes-184328">How climate change is turning remote Indigenous houses into dangerous hot boxes</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Quilty is affiliated with a community project, Wilya Janta, that is progressing better housing design with greater Indigenous agency in Tennant Creek. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Riley is a Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research working on the ANU Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific Grand Challenge.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Some of the data referenced in this article (specifically mapping locations where prepayment is not prohibited) was collected as part of a project funded under grant ARFEB22001 by Energy Consumers Australia Limited (<a href="http://www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au">www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au</a>) as part of its grants process for consumer advocacy projects and research projects for the benefit of consumers of electricity and natural gas. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Norman Frank Jupurrurla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s 2023 and residents in remote First Nations communities still suffer from regular power disconnections. The fix is simple: put solar on every roof. But there are challenges to overcome first.Simon Quilty, Senior Staff Specialist, Alice Springs Hospital. Purple House Medical Advisor. Honorary ANU., Australian National UniversityBrad Riley, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLee White, Fellow, Australian National UniversityNorman Frank Jupurrurla, Warumungu Elder and Director of the Julalikari Council Aboriginal Corporation, Tennant Creek, Indigenous KnowledgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.