tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/sophie-mirabella-3347/articlesSophie Mirabella – The Conversation2016-06-27T10:36:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/616722016-06-27T10:36:20Z2016-06-27T10:36:20ZThe Indi Project: ‘Soft’ voters trust Turnbull over Shorten to run the country<p>Malcolm Turnbull is overwhelmingly more trusted than Bill Shorten to lead the country, and also is seen as the better campaigner, in the final round of Indi focus group research among “soft” voters in the seat.</p>
<p>Despite the major parties being out of favour with many of these “soft” voters, people are impressed with Turnbull’s charisma, previous business acumen and moderate personal views on issues such as same-sex marriage and climate change.</p>
<p>Two focus groups were held in Wodonga on June 21, the campaign’s penultimate week, with people from various locations. One group had eight voters aged 60-77; the other, ten people aged 23-53. Some participants had been in one or both previous tranches of the study done for the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis by Landscape Research. Soft voters were defined as people who had not definitely decided their vote.</p>
<p>While there was division among older voters about the leaders’ performance in the campaign (a 4-4 split on who had performed best), younger voters mostly gave it to Turnbull (7-3).</p>
<p>Older people regarded Turnbull as the more charismatic, but felt Shorten was “more for the regular Joe” – not that these voters have had any opportunity to see either leader in the flesh during the campaign.</p>
<p>Nobody would have expected Shorten to go to Indi, because Labor is a minor player there. But Turnbull’s absence is notable – reflecting in part the Liberals’ judgement about the prospects of their candidate Sophie Mirabella, who lost the seat to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013 and is now fighting what is considered a doomed battle to come back.</p>
<p>“It all comes down to this confidence, this savoir faire,” said an older voter of Turnbull. Another said: “He’s certainly more charismatic and more capable than Shorten of expressing an opinion”. </p>
<p>Comments in the younger group included: “Turnbull dressed to impress”; “Turnbull seems like he’s more financially savvy and has a longer-term view - more articulate”; “bit more positive than Shorten”.</p>
<p>After more than six weeks of the campaign Shorten was still an unknown quantity for some, particularly older voters. “Out of a line-up I could tell you who Turnbull was – I couldn’t pick Shorten, unless it was a line-up of two and Turnbull was the other one,” said an older voter; another said “You just don’t know what you’re going to get with him”. A younger voter couldn’t “even picture Shorten”.</p>
<p>His union background was among other negatives about Shorten, including one specific local instance. “He was involved in [a union intervention] down in Cobram [in the Murray electorate] a few years ago and he messed it up and it’s still messed up.”</p>
<p>A 77-year-old retired truck driver from Wodonga said: “I don’t go much for Shorten. I’ve been a union man all my life but I sort of can’t trust what I see of him … I’ve voted Labor all my life but I’m changing this year”.</p>
<p>When they discussed who they trusted more to lead the country the older voters broke 5-3 for Turnbull, while the split in the younger group was 8-2, making a total of 13-5 in support of Turnbull.</p>
<p>Turnbull was “more calm and well-spoken [with] longer-term thinking,” said one in the younger group; another found him “a bit more honest and transparent”. Those who said they would trust Shorten more to lead said they’d like him given “a go” and they felt he was more in touch with average Australians. “Shorten comes across as straightforward and honest.”</p>
<p>The focus groups met before the Brexit decision but when Shorten was ramping up his claims that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare. This was cutting through with these voters, just as they were starting to take notice of some issues in the campaign.</p>
<p>Many thought Shorten’s proposition was plausible, especially because of the Liberals’ perceived past “form”. “Medicare Locals are all gone … They said they weren’t going to shut those down”; “Turnbull’s come out and said he wouldn’t privatise Medicare, but he hasn’t said he wouldn’t privatise aspects of it. I think that’s the issue.”</p>
<p>Some questioned the logic and practicality of privatisation, thinking this was just a Labor scare campaign, or dismissing it because it would be suicidal for the Liberals. “Which company’s going to take on Medicare anyway? Isn’t it a drain on the country?”; “on balance I don’t think the Coalition would be brave enough to privatise Medicare”.</p>
<p>The groups canvassed same-sex marriage – on which the government promises a plebiscite while the opposition pledges to legalise it in a Labor government’s first 100 days. Mostly the issue has remained on the fringes of the campaign. In both groups there was some confusion about the difference between a “plebiscite” and a “referendum”, but other participants were able to explain the distinction to those who didn’t know.</p>
<p>Younger voters were generally in favour of same-sex marriage, and so didn’t see the need for a plebiscite. “Just do it”; “it’s the way of the future”; “[the plebiscite is] a very expensive way of addressing something that I see as inevitable.”</p>
<p>Among soft older voters, some agree with same-sex marriage, some are totally opposed on religious grounds, while others want to have a voice. “I don’t want just the politicians to decide. It’s such a big change to our social fabric, that I want to have a say.”</p>
<p>Some older voters opposed a plebiscite, feeling the politicians should sort the issue. Others felt a plebiscite was a waste because politicians could still vote any way they wanted. Later in the week, a debate broke out nationally when Turnbull said that if the plebiscite was carried cabinet ministers would have a free vote on the enabling legislation (although he was confident it would be overwhelmingly passed).</p>
<p>Among older voters, there was a recognition a plebiscite was a solution to Turnbull’s bind – in being caught between those opponents of same-sex marriage in Liberal ranks and his own support for it.</p>
<p>In this campaign Turnbull has unrelentingly made “jobs and growth” his mantra. By the second last week the Indi soft voters were aware of it but thought it lacked meat, wondering how the jobs were going to be created. Labor’s policy of offering businesses assistance to take on an unemployed person got some attention from older soft voters, with some sceptical that it would create jobs.</p>
<p>Older voters noticed the Labor launch, which had been held in Sydney at the start of the week. “I had a bloody good laugh,” said a semi-retired woman from Beechworth. “In what world has the Labor party ever been united in the last five years? I mean, they’re spruiking unity? Pl-ease. My goodness, all of a sudden they love each other?”</p>
<p>The environment, education and retirement income were issues that older voters had expected to hear about during the campaign but little had registered with them. This is despite education in particular being at the heart of the Shorten pitch. It’s likely that different segments of the population tune into particular issues of relevance to them; also, a lot of propaganda is very targeted in modern campaigns, now that parties have so much data about individual voters.</p>
<p>When asked who would win the election, many of these voters predicted a hung parliament. Pushed for a winner, all but one of the older participants thought the Coalition more likely than Labor, while the younger ones split evenly.</p>
<p>McGowan’s refusal to say who she would support if the parliament were hung polarised these soft voters. They were divided over who she should side with, if the situation arose; some said it should be the Coalition because of the generally conservative nature of Indi; others said the ALP (“Cathy seems a bit more aligned with Labor”). </p>
<p>Some thought she was just like other politicians, in keeping things close to her chest to get more votes from people who mightn’t like her leaning. Others believed it was a good thing because she was waiting to see the result.</p>
<p>These voters are not thinking in terms of how their futures would be affected by a change of government. There is a sense that they expect “business as usual” whoever wins. “In spite of their deep cynicism about politicians and party politics, soft Indi voters actually implicitly trust the Australian democratic process to deliver a ‘stable’ outcome – so much so that for many it doesn’t matter who wins,” the researcher said in her report on the discussions.</p>
<p>But there is a desire among some for whoever wins to get control of the Senate. In this, Indi voters probably differ from electors elsewhere, given the high support in recent polls for “micro” players. The Indi voters seem to be balancing their backing for an independent in the House of Representatives with a wish for stability, reflected in their thinking about the Senate.</p>
<p>As previously, participants were asked who they would vote for. This time they filled out a full mock ballot paper. The results in this qualitative research have no statistical validity but once again indicate interesting points. “To some degree, voting in Indi is being driven by who soft voters know they DON’T want to vote for,” the researcher said. “Many participants actually started voting from number ten [there are ten candidates] and eliminated those they felt they didn’t want to vote for.”</p>
<p>Mirabella was placed tenth by five of the 18 voters in the groups, and first by just three. The first preference choices were: McGowan 12 (67%), Mirabella three (17%), the Nationals’ Marty Corboy two (11%), with a minor candidate receiving the other vote. Over the three tranches McGowan has strengthened her position among focus group participants, especially between the first and second rounds.</p>
<p>When people were asked for second preferences, the results were: McGowan two, Mirabella two, Corboy one, the Greens’ Jenny O'Connor five, Labor’s Eric Kerr two, with the rest scattered among minor candidates.</p>
<p>On all the present indications, McGowan is expected to comfortably retain Indi, after preferences.</p>
<p>The researcher summed up the nature of this contest: “Indi is a race of personality, of incidents around the personalities, of who’s been seen out and about. There is little in the way of policy or issues that is captivating voters.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull is overwhelmingly more trusted than Bill Shorten to lead the country in the final round of Indi focus group research among ‘soft’ voters in the seat.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/612222016-06-22T00:43:19Z2016-06-22T00:43:19ZThe Indi Project: who do Indi voters trust to run the country?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127229/original/image-20160620-11089-l2153h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cathy McGowan is a community-minded representative who seeks to build her electorate’s capacity to respond to rural challenges. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>At the moment a lot of politicians go into politics for advancement rather than service. Turning out clones of media-savvy people with soundbites and platitudes not genuine responses. It feels like they’re manufactured. – Indi citizen</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Only 42% of Australians are presently satisfied with the way democracy works. Trust in our politicians and the political process are at the lowest level than at any time since 1994. And the majority of citizens describe the standards of honesty and integrity in Australia as low. The proportion of those disaffected increases with age. </p>
<p>At the same time, more Australians than ever before are undecided on how to vote at the forthcoming election.</p>
<p>These observations of democratic decline are <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-for-the-big-question-who-do-you-trust-to-run-the-country-58723">just a snapshot</a> of the views of 1,444 Australians reported in a survey designed by the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis (IGPA) at the University of Canberra and the Museum of Australian Democracy.</p>
<p>To explore these findings in more detail, the IGPA research team is conducting focus groups with different groups throughout Australia.</p>
<p>The first stop has been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/indi/">Indi</a> in northeastern Victoria. Indi was selected for two reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>it is experiencing demographic, economic and social challenges that are fairly typical in rural communities; and </p></li>
<li><p>its incumbent MP, Cathy McGowan, is an independent. She usurped Sophie Mirabella, who is attempting to reclaim the seat in 2016, in spectacular fashion at the last election. This suggests Indi has a potentially large number of floating voters at the local scale, mirroring the situation nationally.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are two politicians that represent very distinctive styles of politics. Mirabella is a seasoned party woman – a career politician once tipped for the frontbench who exercises some influence both in her party and in Canberra. McGowan is a community-minded representative who seeks to build her electorate’s capacity to respond to rural challenges. </p>
<p>Mirabella approaches politics like a blood sport and has significant skill in engaging in adversarial politics. McGowan appears empathetic, concerned and responsive, and is immediately likeable. So what do the people of Indi think about issues of trust?</p>
<h2>What are the characteristics of Indi’s ideal politician?</h2>
<p>Although Indi voters cite standard characteristics that we would expect when asked to describe their “ideal” MP (such as honesty, trustworthy, ethical, local identity – “knows the area”), there are some additional features they are looking for. These appear to correlate strongly with experiences of their immediate past and current federal MPs.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?</strong> </p>
<p><em>A: Politicians are in it just for themselves.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127215/original/image-20160620-11089-907rmb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of political self-interest by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Indi voters desire someone who is “approachable and accessible”, “who listens to them”, who “communicates and follows up”, who “fights for them”, and who “has influence in government to get things done”.</p>
<h2>What do they trust politicians to do?</h2>
<p>Younger Indi voters particularly are highly sceptical of the discussion around jobs, and feel the numbers thrown around in that discussion are slippery.</p>
<p>They doubt whether the job creation promised will be delivered, and think the job prospects are likely to be short-term, part-time or casual positions, when they are looking for long-term, meaningful employment.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: Please indicate how concerned you are about the following activities by elected politicians in Australia today.</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Making promises they know they can’t keep.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127217/original/image-20160620-11112-11wztsj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concern about false promises by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Younger voters’ disappointment in their political representatives is manifest. They see their lack of faith as justified by the ubiquitous “broken promises” of politicians of all persuasions.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: Please indicate how concerned you are about the following activities by elected politicians in Australia today.</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Breaking promises.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127218/original/image-20160620-11120-4g0uyy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concern about promise breaking by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Older voters don’t trust governments in general. However, they make some dispensations for local government – which they see as somewhat more accessible and accountable because of its proximity to citizens.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: In general, would you say that federal governments are typically run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all people?</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127219/original/image-20160620-11112-1gs9jtz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the motivations of politicians by age cohort in Australia (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>What does trust mean to Indi citizens?</h2>
<p>Indi soft voters were asked to define what trust meant to them. While there was a wide range of responses, several key themes emerged.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Trust means that I know that someone’s being real and honest with me, not pleasing my ears with sweet talk while holding a gun under the table.</p>
<p>Trustworthiness is earned by following through with promises without betrayal, and in regards to politics (or just being in the global community) for me it means feeling that a person is being who they really are, not just putting on an act when the cameras are on.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: MPs in general.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127220/original/image-20160620-11092-ocaptz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for MPs in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: MPs (local).</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127221/original/image-20160620-11107-vre3lp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for local MPs in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>To a large extent, Indi’s floating voter is resigned to what they get.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: How much do you personally trust each of the following?</strong></p>
<p><em>A: Federal government.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/127222/original/image-20160620-11110-1runqvd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perceptions of the level of political honesty and integrity for federal government in Australia by age cohort (2016).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>There is some recognition that governments do actually deliver decent services, but that they need to be accountable for their promises.</p>
<h2>Understanding the politics of trust</h2>
<p>The declining figures on democratic satisfaction, formal political engagement and trust in political institutions and politicians should be troubling for all political parties who have presided over a decade of democratic decline.</p>
<p>The evidence nationally and from Indi is that the key question for the majority of Australians come election time is: who do you trust to run the country? </p>
<p>For many, political parties are simply failing to capture the political imagination. This provides the space for either independents and/or minority parties to build alternative agendas around the politics of trust or a wake-up call to the major parties to reconnect with the citizenry.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The election generally, and Indi in particular, will be <a href="https://www.trybooking.com/LWON">discussed at a forum</a> attended by Mark Evans, Michelle Grattan and others on Saturday, June 25. For a more detailed exposition of this article see the forthcoming book, <a href="https://www.echobooks.com.au/book-shop/from_abbott_to_turnbull">From Abbott to Turnbull: Australian Commonwealth Administration 2013-2016</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61222/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Evans receives funding for his research from a range of governmental and non governmental organizations including research councils, foundations, international organizations, overseas governments and jurisdictions across Australia. He is committed to the production of objective, evidence based research that makes a contribution to real world problem solving.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Halupka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Indi has a potentially large number of floating voters at the local scale, mirroring the situation nationally. What do the people of Indi think about issues of trust?Mark Evans, Professor of Governance and Director of the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis and NATSEM, University of CanberraMax Halupka, Research Fellow at the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/609552016-06-13T12:33:18Z2016-06-13T12:33:18ZThe Indi Project: Soft voters say Turnbull better leader to handle a Trump presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/126284/original/image-20160613-29229-1lswrmt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Support for Cathy McGowan has strengthened notably since the last focus group discussion in May. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cathy McGowan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Soft voters in the Victorian seat of Indi are strengthening their support for independent member Cathy McGowan, but many are inclined to balance that out by opting for the Coalition in the Senate.</p>
<p>At a time when it is expected the election will see a significant number of micro-players in the upper house, the second round of the Indi Project’s focus group research found some of these soft voters looking for stability there.</p>
<p>A 53-year-old Wangaratta laboratory technician said: “I want my Senate rep to be working for a better long-term Australia, even if it is bad for my local area. Conversely, I want my [House of Representatives member] to work for my little Indi area, to help me in everyday ways.”</p>
<p>A younger male part-time customer-service representative from Wodonga felt “Cathy will get things done for our area. I think the major parties will be able to implement greater change in the Senate.”</p>
<p>Round two of the qualitative study, commissioned by the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis and conducted by Landscape Research, was done online last Wednesday and Thursday nights. The 25 “soft voters” aged 18-71, 12 of them women, included retirees, full and part-time workers, small-business owners, those engaged with home duties, and students voting for the first time. About half had been in one of the first focus groups a fortnight before. “Soft” voters haven’t decided definitely for whom they will vote.</p>
<p>Support for McGowan had strengthened notably since the May 24 discussions, though some voters still struggle with what she stands for. She “needs to outline a more specific platform”; “I need to see more of her ideas”. </p>
<p>Feeling against the Liberals’ Sophie Mirabella – who lost the seat to McGowan – was intense before and has worsened. “She comes across as negative and her body language says a lot during this campaign,” said a childcare worker. Soft Liberal voters are leaning to her only because she represents the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ Marty Corboy failed to get much traction in the fortnight in capitalising on Mirabella’s unpopularity among soft Coalition voters. Many still know little of him; his right-wing views on issues such as abortion, climate change and same-sex marriage have put off some.</p>
<p>While the ALP is putting the Liberals ahead of the Nationals on its how-to-vote cards in three seats where there is a Liberal-Nationals contest, it has placed Corboy (at number eight) ahead of Mirabella (at nine). Pre-polling starts on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Nationally, neither Malcolm Turnbull nor Bill Shorten is inspiring these Indi soft voters. For some it’s a question of who is the least worst. “Both [Liberal and Labor] are terrible at managing their money … I just feel Turnbull is less terrible,” said a young Yackandandah tradie.</p>
<p>These soft voters, like the Australian electorate generally, are jaded after the prime ministerial merry-go-round of recent years, the 2010-13 hung parliament, and what they see as tricky preference deals. </p>
<p>Trust has been eroded (though they keep things in perspective, with favourable comparisons to overseas). “The current revolving door of prime ministers, done without the consent of the public, means they can’t achieve anything meaningful in such a short time,” said one male student; according to a another, “The fact that we haven’t had a full-term prime minister since 2007 shows me that the parties are getting greedier and more detached from the people’s interests.”</p>
<p>The group was polarised about the possibility a hung parliament – whether it would result in independents twisting the government’s arm into bad decisions or would be a chance for them to keep the bastards honest. </p>
<p>On one view “too many independents will cause chaos in parliament” and “it can mean that the majority party may need to compromise too much”. On the other hand, “it would bring a fresh set of eyes to the table who might offer something others have missed”; “we have a lot of independents with really innovative and sensible policies – if they are able to implement some of those policies, perhaps more will be done for our country.”</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these differing views, many of these soft voters are confident of McGowan’s ability and integrity to make sensible choices if in a balance of power situation.</p>
<p>A first-time voter saw a paradox in this election: “It’s so ironic given that the election was made a double dissolution to remove the independents in the Senate, only for the Parliament to likely become dominated by them.”</p>
<p>Participants were asked who they would vote for from McGowan, Mirabella, or Corboy if the election were that day. It must be stressed the result has no statistical validity. But the trend is interesting. The primary vote for McGowan was three times as strong as that for Corboy and four times that for Mirabella, who received the lowest number of both primary votes and preferences out of the three candidates.</p>
<p>In the May 24 round, the results on first preferences were McGowan 35%, Mirabella 24%, Corboy 24%, others 18%. In this round McGowan received 16 votes (64%), Corboy five (20%), and Mirabella four (16%). In their allocation of second preferences, McGowan received five (20%), Corboy 11 (44%), and Mirabella nine (36%).</p>
<p>When participants were asked for a Senate vote, total Coalition support was 50% (Liberals 10, Nationals two), with 25% support for independents (six). Labor (three), Greens (two) and other minor parties (one) combined made up the remaining 25%. (One participant dropped out of the discussion before the Senate vote.)</p>
<p>“The strength of the Coalition vote in the Senate is likely a reflection of soft voters’ desire for stability in government (while supporting a good local representative in McGowan), the traditional conservative nature of the seat, the stated disaffection with the lower house candidate Mirabella, and either lack of knowledge about or dislike for the ‘far-right’ views of the Nationals candidate Corboy,” the researcher said in her report.</p>
<p>Over halfway into the campaign, these Indi soft voters remained disengaged from the election. “We just seem to have two parties waffling on about not much in general,” observed one participant; another said, “all they seem to be doing is finding fault with each other”.</p>
<p>There is cynicism about the campaign being more of the same. “Just dissing on each other,” observed a middle-aged factory worker, adding “each year it’s the same”. </p>
<p>For a retired small business owner it was “the same old same old. More schools, better health care, tax variation. As for a plan, they will offer whatever it takes to win the election.”</p>
<p>The Liberals’ “growth and jobs” mantra and Labor’s social policy agenda are getting some cut-through; so are the attacks on Labor’s big spending.
But campaign promises are being met by these voters with disdain and distrust – politicians in the past have failed to act to deliver on their promises and now they are here with another round. </p>
<p>A semi-retired older woman from Beechworth cut to the chase: “The parties, all of them, always have ‘a plan’ when they are fighting … an election. The hard bit is getting them to stick to their promises, or even remember the ‘plan’ when they get into power. Too many times we are made promises, only to have those promises either put on the backburner, or not fulfilled at all.”</p>
<p>The discussion canvassed specific issues, including superannuation, where tax concessions for the wealthy will be cut whoever wins the election, and the Coalition’s plan to bring down company tax over a decade.</p>
<p>Superannuation is seen largely as a vehicle for the rich; many younger voters dismissed it because they are a long way from retirement – a 48-year-old male factory worker said “still ten years away for me”. One or two who’d be affected were narky. “But the dominant view is that the proposed super changes will remove a perk for the rich (and something many of these soft voters are unable to access) and they are therefore supportive of the move,” the researcher concluded.</p>
<p>There was uncertainty about the impact of the company tax move and a mix of views. Many were supportive of tax cuts for small business, but had reservations about the same concession for big business. </p>
<p>“On balance, it appears as if Labor’s framing of this policy has been effective, with many opposed and expecting ‘big business’ to pay more or at least ‘their fair share’,” the report said. “Trickle down economics hasn’t worked anywhere else,” a middle-aged man opined; a stay-at-home mother said “everything seems geared to help the big guys”, while a middle-aged female predicted “any jobs created will only be casual, or small part-time”, adding that part-time jobs didn’t create growth – “they only make employment numbers look good for politicians”. </p>
<p>A Wodonga retiree believed “reducing company tax on big business will only increase their profits and will have marginal impact on small companies who are struggling to pay any tax at all. I do not support universal tax cuts but rather increased tax on the most profitable and lower tax on small business.”</p>
<p>The discussion also tested views on the implications for Australia if Donald Trump became the US president, and whether Turnbull or Shorten would be the better leader to deal with him.</p>
<p>These voters were hostile to Trump and concerned about him. “Batshit crazy” was the blunt assessment of a small business owner from Killara. A Wodonga part-time educator declared Trump “an arrogant chauvinist and not smart enough to understand how ill-equipped he is to run a country”. A male retiree described him as “a terrible danger to the world if elected”.</p>
<p>There was some concern about Trump, if president, starting a war – with the implications for Australia. “Trump is the sort of person who will declare war on other countries readily, and that could have a big effect on us,” a student said.</p>
<p>Turnbull was regarded by many as the better leader to handle Trump, with Turnbull’s business experience and money cited by some as reasons. “Turnbull, because he is more business-minded”; “Trump is more likely to respect his money”; “they seem to be cut from the same cloth, they are both savvy businessmen”. Turnbull “would stand up for the Australian policies and not be bluffed by Trump”. Only one or two thought Shorten would do a better job.</p>
<p>A few thought neither would be up to the challenge, and looked to the past. “Can we bring back John Howard or even Kevin Rudd to deal with him?” an older woman asked rhetorically, while another lamented: “Actually what a pity Bob Hawke isn’t around anymore – he would give Donald a run for his money!”</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/h7i43-6003b1?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/h7i43-6003b1?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Soft voters in the Victorian seat of Indi are strengthening their support for independent member Cathy McGowan, but many are inclined to balance that out by opting for the Coalition in the Senate.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602302016-05-31T01:48:20Z2016-05-31T01:48:20ZElection podcast: the Indi project<p>The battle for the Victorian seat of Indi is shaping up as a three-way contest. Independent Cathy McGowan is trying to fend off the former member Sophie Mirabella and the Nationals’ Marty Corboy.</p>
<p>McGowan tells Michelle Grattan the election will come down to preferences. </p>
<p>“I’m hoping that the National Party people will consider giving me their second preference and I’m hoping that Liberal Party people … certainly the ones in Wodonga – don’t see their answer in the National Party and they will consider giving me their preferences,” she says. </p>
<p>In this special election podcast, Michelle Grattan interviews McGowan, Corboy, as well as the Greens’ candidate Jenny O'Connor and Labor’s Eric Kerr. Sophie Mirabella was unwilling to be interviewed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The battle for the Victorian seat of Indi is shaping up as a three-way contest.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602232016-05-30T14:06:35Z2016-05-30T14:06:35ZThe Indi Project: Sophie Mirabella in the bunker<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/124500/original/image-20160530-7713-weg4ov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former independent member for Wills, Phil Cleary, joins Sophie Mirabella and Cathy McGowan in photos at a Wodonga football match. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Mirabella/Pat Hutchens</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Phil Cleary, left-leaning one-time independent member for Wills, and Sophie Mirabella, the former Liberal MP for Indi who is trying to regain the seat, are far from political soulmates.</p>
<p>But on Saturday, when Cleary addressed a lunch before a Wodonga football match on the subject of violence against women, Mirabella asked for a photo with him, and posted it on Facebook.</p>
<p>Cleary had found himself caught in the picture wars.</p>
<p>A couple of hours later Cathy McGowan, the independent who in 2013 beat Mirabella, arrived at the ground. Cleary, feeling in distinctly more comfortable political company, posed with her too. The House of Representatives needed more progressive independents to change the national conversation, he said.</p>
<p>The fight for this northern Victorian electorate that a few years ago was rock solid for the Liberals is complex and intense. As a human tale, it is all about Mirabella, a driven woman who squandered the prize of a safe electorate but won’t let go.</p>
<p>Politically, it is a test of whether this regional community is satisfied with a member who can only wield limited clout – except if there were a hung parliament. Then there is the sub-story – the entry into the field of the Nationals, pushing for advantage on the weakness of an unpopular Liberal contender.</p>
<p>Indi, an Aboriginal name for the Murray River, is a rural electorate that at its southwest end is close to the outskirts of Melbourne; its northern boundary extends to the NSW border. Its main centres are Wodonga and Wangaratta; it contains picturesque tourist towns such as Beechworth and Bright, the Alps country and Falls Creek. A federation seat, its occupants have included Isaac Isaacs, who later became governor-general, and the Country Party’s legendary “Black Jack” McEwen.</p>
<p>Indi hasn’t seen a Labor member since the Great Depression, so this is not your normal “marginal” seat. But in 2013 McGowan won by just 439 votes, beating Mirabella 50.2%-49.8% on the two-party vote, after Mirabella polled 44.7% of the primary vote and McGowan 31.2%. </p>
<p>A ReachTEL poll done in March for the Australia Institute showed McGowan in a winning position. Federal Liberals are dismissive of Mirabella’s prospects, regarding McGowan as dug in. ABC election analyst Antony Green points out that traditionally independents elected in seats like this increase their vote in the second election. But with both the Liberals and Nationals in the field, the outcome remains uncertain.</p>
<p>A Melbourne lawyer and therefore an outsider, Mirabella won the seat in 2001. A high-flyer, she was very close to Tony Abbott and would have been the second woman in the initial Abbott cabinet. But in a major revolt against her neglect of them and her abrasive style, her constituents bucked the national pro-Coalition swing to throw her out. The whack had been on the way for a while and only needed the right candidate to deliver it: Mirabella’s vote dropped from 63% in 2004, to 54% in 2007, 53% in 2010, and 45% in 2013.</p>
<p>Mirabella persuaded the Liberal Party to keep an office in this electorate it no longer held. As she geared up for a comeback bid, her tone was that of one seeking redemption: she accepted she’d not listened, indicating that she’d got the message, she’d changed.</p>
<p>But then she didn’t seem to have changed at all. Things tanked. It was reported in the Benalla Ensign that she’d pushed McGowan to deny her a picture opportunity – Mirabella rejects the allegation and there are legal letters. She claimed Indi was denied hospital funding she’d had in the bag before the 2013 election because it elected McGowan. Senior Liberals knew of no such money. An ABC 7.30 interview with comedian Libbi Gorr didn’t go well.</p>
<p>Mirabella, who once relished her high profile, now declines to do interviews with the national media. As far as they are concerned, she’s in the bunker.</p>
<p>Liberal ministers have weighed in to help her. Treasurer Scott Morrison made an appearance – unfortunately for him, just when the hospital story had exploded. Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer, the minister for vocational education and skills, Scott Ryan, and Communications Minister Mitch Fifield have campaigned. Ryan says he and his colleagues have found “strong support” for her. She is not on Malcolm Turnbull’s immediate visiting schedule. Abbott keeps in touch but doesn’t have plans to go to Indi at this point.</p>
<p>The Nationals are looking to the future. If McGowan, 62, holds on, that will end Mirabella’s Indi ambitions and the Nationals could be well placed after a McGowan retirement in 2019. Going into the three-cornered contest late last year the Nationals were on about 8%. They have been encouraged by support for their candidate, 36-year old Marty Corboy, who is part of the family stockfeed business in Wangaratta. He’s had Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce and deputy Fiona Nash, whom he describes as “a little superstar”, on the trail with him.</p>
<p>Corboy gets a strong rap from an unlikely quarter. Michael Cooney, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre, Labor’s think-tank, and Julia Gillard’s former speech writer, who has known him for years, says: “He’s a good bloke – he’d have my second preference [after Labor] if I were voting in Indi. He’s a quite positive product of a new conservative generation that’s post the culture wars. He’s just got his positions – he’s not a cranky contrarian.”</p>
<p>Last time the Nationals ran, in 2001, their vote was about 12%. Corboy will pick up some votes from both McGowan and Mirabella. In 2013 McGowan was helped by support from certain Nationals, including former state MP Ken Jasper, who now endorses Corboy.</p>
<p>The order in which the top three candidates come in and the flow of preferences will be crucial.</p>
<p>McGowan says: “I think it’s going to be very close.” Although Mirabella and Corboy will exchange preferences, McGowan believes many of their preferences will in fact go to her, especially given both Coalition candidates are well to the right, in contrast to her centrist position.</p>
<p>On same-sex marriage, for example, Corboy – who once ran as a Family First candidate in a state seat – welcomes the government’s proposed plebiscite, but when pressed on what he’d do if elected on the enabling bill after a “yes” vote says “I’d have to see the legislation”.</p>
<p>McGowan says: “I’m hoping that the National Party people will consider giving me their second preference and I’m hoping that Liberal Party people will think – certainly the ones in Wodonga – [that they] don’t see their answer in the National party and they will consider giving me their preferences.”</p>
<p>Mirabella and Corboy push the argument they can deliver in a re-elected Turnbull government. Corboy, who describes Mirabella as a polarising figure, says: “Indi is a conservative seat. There were many reasons why the current member was elected”, but “people coming to me think they are better served by someone around the table of government”.</p>
<p>The issue of who can deliver is one voters talk about. McGowan, who cites her role in obtaining the substantial number of phone towers allocated to the electorate (disputed by Mirabella) and in helping persuade some crossbench senators to oppose deregulating universities, says: “It is not true that the only way to get things done is to be a member of the governing party. Parliament works on your ability to work with people and get things through the system.”</p>
<p>Indi, she says, has moved from being a safe seat that was ignored to one that’s “competitive” – “everyone is paying attention and knows their vote is going to count and the current government is paying attention”. She points to Morrison’s visit just before the budget.</p>
<p>A grassroots campaign won in 2013 for McGowan, who was a popular local with a farm high in the mountainous country near Beechworth. This time she has some 600 volunteers signed up, campaign “hubs” in the major centres and A$90,000 raised already. There are no big donors, she says.</p>
<p>McGowan cut substantially into the Labor vote in 2013, which suffered a swing of 16.5% on primaries, falling to 11.7%. Eric Kerr, a local councillor from Wodonga, is Labor’s candidate this time; he is the 22-year old son of lesbian parents and same-sex marriage is one of his big issues. He’s also an open critic of Labor’s tough border protection policy. </p>
<p>The Greens’ Jenny O'Connor, a nurse who works in the mental health area, is contesting the seat for the fourth time. Wangaratta GP Julian Fidge is badged as “Australian Country Party” and there is an independent candidate, Alan Lappin, from near Rutherglen.</p>
<p>Because of its special and interesting aspects the University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis has chosen Indi for its 2016 Election Project. Two focus groups comprising “soft” voters – people who have not decided definitely how they will vote – were held in Wodonga last week. The discussions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-mcgowan-lacks-clout-mirabella-is-embarrassing-say-local-soft-voters-60220">presented in a separate article</a>. There will be further focus group reporting later in the campaign.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Phil Cleary, left-leaning one-time independent member for Wills, and Sophie Mirabella, the former Liberal MP for Indi who is trying to regain the seat, are far from political soulmates.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraAdrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/602202016-05-30T14:05:41Z2016-05-30T14:05:41ZThe Indi Project: McGowan lacks clout, Mirabella is embarrassing, say local ‘soft’ voters<p>Independent member for Indi Cathy McGowan is seen very positively in focus group research in her Victorian seat of Indi – except for one thing.</p>
<p>The political non-alignment that helped her turf out Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013 is regarded as her greatest weakness in the 2016 contest.</p>
<p>In contrast, Mirabella is stridently criticised for her manner and behaviour – but her affiliation with a major party is a plus.</p>
<p>The University of Canberra’s Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis has commissioned Landscape Research to do three rounds of focus groups with “soft” voters in Indi. These are people who have not yet decided definitely who they will vote for on July 2.</p>
<p>Two groups were conducted in Wodonga on May 24, with participants from Wodonga, Wangaratta, Beechworth and Yackandandah. One had eight voters, predominantly retirees, aged between 55-75; the 18-54 age group had nine participants who were mainly working or at home with children. Both groups had roughly equal numbers of men and women and a mix of socioeconomic backgrounds. Each discussion lasted two hours.</p>
<p>A sense of disappointment was evident about the choice of candidates on offer at this election, as well as the wider issue of the quality of candidates generally that the major parties put forward.</p>
<p>For their own representative, these Indi voters want the best of all worlds: someone approachable and accessible who listens, communicates, follows up, fights for them – and has influence in government to get things done.</p>
<p>“We need to know we are heard,” said one participant, while another believed the ideal representative should be “approachable, be a local and know where the needs are and [be] a party member so the member has influence and power”. But not too senior – “if they become too important then they can’t do their job”.</p>
<p>McGowan rates strongly for fighting for Indi, being hard working, approachable, responsive and a good communicator.</p>
<p>“I wrote to her and Cathy wrote back and had a different view to mine, but at least she responded,” an older voter said; another had noted she’d “jumped on the [dairy] issue” – which is big in this electorate – “and been very supportive”.</p>
<p>But only one person cited her status as an independent as a positive.</p>
<p>“She ticks a lot of boxes as a good local member, but her independent status is also seen as her greatest weakness, and there is a strong sense that the quality of representation for the electorate is seriously compromised as a result,” the research report concludes.</p>
<p>This was reflected in comments such as: “helpful although she couldn’t progress my issue personally”; “no influence. Difficult to get things done. She can’t get funding to the area”; “independent, so little influence in major decision-making”.</p>
<p>Mirabella’s positives are her experience, personal strength, legal background and having affiliation with a major party. “With the backing of a large party, she is more likely to get things done,” said one participant.</p>
<p>But while McGowan’s only – but significant – downside is seen as her being an independent, Mirabella carries heavy baggage.</p>
<p>She draws fire for “her apparent aloofness from the people and the appearance of personal ambition over the interests of the electorate. Some are quite scathing of her and more than one refer to embarrassing”, the report says.</p>
<p>The cutting assessment from a member of the older group was that “she’s embarrassing. She got thrown out of Question Time for very belligerent behaviour. She’s brought ill-repute to Wodonga”; another described her as “a show pony, glory-seeking, embarrassment to the electorate”. A younger participant said she was “entitled, stubborn, obtuse, egocentric”.</p>
<p>“There is a sense from some that Mirabella has blotted her copybook so badly there is no coming back,” the report says. “However, this view is balanced by others who applaud her strength, value her party affiliation and potential influence in government, and would vote for her because she is the Liberal candidate.”</p>
<p>The younger voters had heard of the Nationals’ Marty Corboy, but there was less recognition of him among the older people. So far, he had been largely defined by his comment that he’d found “people in the electorate are pleased to have a bloke to vote for”.</p>
<p>These Indi voters were, for the most part, still disengaged from the election. They are “cranky and indignant about the way their electorate has become the focus of national attention vis-a-vis the intensely personal McGowan/Mirabella contest”, the research found. “They are embarrassed about the subject matter that is gaining them national attention and about the skewed portrayal of them and their electorate, and it convinces them the electoral process really is removed from their everyday lives.”</p>
<p>This is particularly evident in their struggle to name issues at the fore of the election campaign. They see the election as a spending game, or a blame game, or both. “It should be called a money fight. It shouldn’t be called an election,” said one in the younger group. Younger voters are particularly disappointed in their political representatives, noting the broken promises of politicians all round.</p>
<p>Such is the disengagement of these Indi soft voters that they expect the election to be about the “same normal stuff”, “schools, hospitals, etc”, yet they were unable to recount any specific announcement they had heard on these issues.</p>
<p>When pushed on what they remembered of the campaign, economic issues dominated, particularly jobs, the budget and taxation. Younger soft voters especially are sceptical about promises on jobs, feeling the numbers are rubbery and that the jobs prospects are likely to be short-term, part-time or casual positions when they want long-term meaningful employment.</p>
<p>Issues about Wodonga hospital make health funding a significant issue. Various aspects of ageing, from aged care to superannuation, were mentioned. People had not heard much about education. Training, employment, and recreational opportunities for young people in the area were a concern.</p>
<p>The issue of refugees/boats people/detention was seen to be to the fore early in the national campaign. But “interestingly, these Indi soft voters do not see it as an ‘election issue’ but rather an ongoing, complex shambles that neither of the major parties can, or is willing to, solve”, the report says. The current policy of offshore detention is seen as not working but people are divided on whether there is a solution.</p>
<p>“If there is a demand for workers, let them in”, said a member of the younger group. But an older person believed “there are rules for immigration and these need to be followed”.</p>
<p>Indi voters’ immediate response when talking about the local campaign is the head-to-head Mirabella-McGowan contest and their annoyance at the media coverage. Beyond that, a key concern is jobs. They talk with animation about mobile telephone black spots (although it is not an unprompted issue of concern) and are frustrated by the inability of governments to deliver an uninterrupted rail link from Wodonga to Melbourne. There is a strong perceived need for greater health funding locally and a wish for more investment in infrastructure.</p>
<p>“Indi voters have a keen sense that they are missing out as a regional area, when compared to more populous locales. Lack of support for local farming, fruit growers, health, and hospitals, are all cited as evidence of lack of interest from government,” the report says.</p>
<p>When discussion turns to the national leaders, these Indi voters had no strong opinions on Malcolm Turnbull and his performance in the campaign so far. Older voters see him tracking steadily. But this is early days and they are expecting more momentum from him.</p>
<p>While one in the older group found him “much more genuine” than Tony Abbott, it’s also noted that he is “not doing so well with the country people – talking jobs and growth – but needs to look to the regions”.</p>
<p>There is a sense of disappointment among some older voters that Turnbull is somehow being constrained and not living up to their expectations. “I’d like to see more fire,” said one; another noted Turnbull “hasn’t had the backing of his party to do what he wants to do”.</p>
<p>Younger voters don’t have the same sense of expectation about Turnbull and are unenthusiastic without being negative. “He is more emotionally stable than Bill, more experienced and [has] better knowledge of finance which means he is better at managing the economy,” said one.</p>
<p>In contrast, more voters find more to complain about with Bill Shorten – especially his “negativity” and big spending promises. He is “spending a lot of money which has me concerned” said an older voter; a younger one said “he seems cocky and I don’t feel I can trust him”.</p>
<p>Awareness of Treasurer Scott Morrison was particularly low among the younger voters, with fewer than half having heard of him. Older voters described him in the budget context: “the money spender”; “did OK with the budget”.</p>
<p>The possibility of a hung parliament disappoints many. Looking back, one participant said, “On the world stage we look foolish. We became a nation run by the Greens last time”. Looking forward, another said, “We have a problem with the system if it came down to this”.</p>
<p>These Indi voters have mixed views about McGowan holding the balance of power in a hung parliament. On the one hand they believe they could and should trust the local member they elected to make decisions on behalf of the nation. “She tends to listen, step back, make inquiries then step forward. I don’t think she is swayed by big carrots.”</p>
<p>On the other hand, some feel uneasy at the prospect of so much power in one person’s hands. “I am unsure which way she would vote on many issues, which scares me.”</p>
<p>People were asked how they voted at the last election. Of those who could recall, nine had voted for McGowan, four in the older group and five in the younger. Five had voted for Mirabella, three older and two younger.</p>
<p>Asked how they thought they would vote this time six said for McGowan, evenly split on age; four said Mirabella, also evenly split, while Corboy had the support of one in the older group and three in the younger. There were three “others”.</p>
<p>They were then asked who would get their second preferences. McGowan received five (two older, three younger), Mirabella got four (evenly split) and Corboy seven (four older, three younger), with “others” one.</p>
<p>The researcher notes that while these results have no statistical validity “a key finding is that conservative voters are not automatically giving their preferences to the other conservative (Liberal or National) candidate; some are preferencing McGowan. As well, both conservatives picked up preferences from McGowan primary voters”.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-indi-project-sophie-mirabella-in-the-bunker-60223">The Indi Project: Sophie Mirabella in the bunker</a></strong></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Independent member for Indi Cathy McGowan is seen very positively in focus group research in her Victorian seat of Indi – except for one thing.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/533922016-01-19T08:38:25Z2016-01-19T08:38:25ZCampaigning in Indi, Warren Truss was the country boy at the B&S ball avoiding Sophie Mirabella’s toes<p>Nationals leader Warren Truss as the political tease? Well, yes. A couple of weeks out from the start of the parliamentary year, Malcolm Turnbull – and the Nationals – are waiting on Truss.</p>
<p>Truss is widely expected soon to stand down as party leader and thus as deputy prime minister. Turnbull is holding out for Truss to announce his intentions before he does his coming reshuffle. But publicly, Truss continues to give nothing away about his plans. And privately, on all accounts, he is not sharing his thoughts either.</p>
<p>While Turnbull is overseas this week, Truss is acting prime minister – one would think for the last time. On Tuesday he was out campaigning, appearing in the northern Victorian electorate of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan wrested from Liberal occupant Sophie Mirabella in 2013.</p>
<p>Truss was there to support Nationals candidate Marty Corboy. But, rather oddly, Mirabella was also an invited participant in his news conference. This had Truss looking like the country boy at the B&S ball trying to dance with two partners simultaneously.</p>
<p>A reporter asked the obvious question. Would visiting Nationals ministers be advocating for Corboy or for Corboy and Mirabella?</p>
<p>“Well, you can be sure that the Coalition will work together,” Truss said, careful not to step anywhere near a Mirabella toe. “So you’ll have Nationals ministers here, and they’ll be seeking to engage Sophie in their itineraries, and there’ll be Liberal ministers here and they’ll be seeking to engage Marty in their programs.” There was no way Truss was going to say, I’m here to urge the people of Indi to vote National.</p>
<p>In 2013 the Nationals did not have a candidate there because it was a Liberal-held seat. The last time they ran in Indi was 2001. Although Barnaby Joyce campaigned for Mirabella in 2013, some Nationals in the region backed McGowan. Mirabella is not their type. </p>
<p>Arguably the Nationals would be happy enough if McGowan retained Indi this time. They would then expect her to retire at the 2019 election. With Mirabella by then out of the way, the Nationals would hope they might have a chance of making the seat one of their own.</p>
<p>The main interest in Truss’ Tuesday appearance, however, was in what he would say about his future.</p>
<p>He remained cryptic. Turnbull had not pushed the issue of retirement, he said; “whether I’m going to go on forever or whether one day I’ll retire” was his decision. Little to be gleaned there.</p>
<p>But what about his statement that “it’s no secret that I had a very good working relationship with Tony Abbott and I’m looking to that kind of relationship growing and strengthening also with Malcolm Turnbull”? Did this suggest he intended to be working at a leadership level for some time, or was it just one of those lines thrown out to fill the moment?</p>
<p>There was the inevitable question about how he rated ambitious deputy Joyce as successor. “Deputy leaders have a fairly strong record of moving on towards being leader and I’m sure that Barnaby will be a very capable contender when and if a vacancy occurs … it’s a matter for the partyroom to make that choice.”</p>
<p>Truss did not say what everyone in the Nationals knows – that the prospect of Joyce becoming leader worries the hell out of him. It’s an open secret that he would prefer another successor but in a party short of senior talent Joyce remains the expected one, despite the presence of an “anybody but Barnaby” camp.</p>
<p>Amid the muddy waters of Truss’ remarks one thing came through clearly. In the reshuffle – coming in the wake of the Briggs affair, and Mal Brough standing aside though not quitting the ministry – the Nationals are set on pressing for another cabinet member. They did not get their quota when Turnbull became leader because they mucked up their arithmetic.</p>
<p>“It’s been recognised that as a result of the expansion in the inner cabinet that the Nationals are entitled to another position,” Truss said.</p>
<p>“That essentially happened at the time of the change of leadership, when the inner cabinet was expanded substantially, and that actually meant that there was an entitlement for an extra Nationals minister, and Malcolm Turnbull’s made it clear that that issue will be addressed when there’s a reshuffle in the future.”</p>
<p>In government circles that reshuffle is expected in the first couple of weeks of February. Just as it is expected that when parliament resumes the week after next Truss will put his partyroom out of its agony.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the guessing game is driving some of his colleagues to distraction. If Truss were foolish enough to let it drag on too long, he would risk losing a good deal of the respect in which he is now held.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Nationals leader Warren Truss as the political tease? Well, yes. A couple of weeks out from the start of the parliamentary year, Malcolm Turnbull – and the Nationals – are waiting on Truss. Truss is widely…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/183202013-09-18T05:34:02Z2013-09-18T05:34:02ZAustralia’s robust voting system deserves praise, not criticism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31555/original/254bz47z-1379480479.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer, who is locked in a tight battle for the seat of Fairfax, has called for another election to be held, citing improper conduct by the AEC.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tony Abbott was today sworn in as Australia’s 28th prime minister. The election results, however, are yet to be formally declared, with some controversy surrounding the counting of votes in the electorate of Fairfax.</p>
<p>There were some interesting and unusual results, especially in the Senate where a new crop of minor parties appear likely to enter the chamber on July 1 next year. But it was mining magnate Clive Palmer, who contested the seat of Fairfax, who has raised <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/clive-palmer-slips-in-fairfax-as-indi-firms-for-mcgowan/4963680">serious questions</a> about the integrity of the voting process. In doing so, he has highlighted how effectively many intricate components work together to produce clear and legitimate electoral results in Australia.</p>
<p>As the count has progressed in the seat of Fairfax, Palmer’s majority has dipped to <a href="http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm">just three votes</a> at the time of writing on Wednesday afternoon. During what is a very close contest, Palmer has requested a recount of the votes in Fairfax as he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-16/palmer-calls-for-fresh-election-in-fairfax/4960824">believed</a> there was tampering of the ballots and discrepancies with the count. </p>
<p>Palmer has also reportedly suggested the election was <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/clive-palmers-bid-to-suspend-counting-at-two-fairfax-polling-booths-thrown-out-of-federal-court/story-fnihsrf2-1226720879198">“rigged”</a>. So what are the processes that are used to decide electoral contests and how are close elections resolved?</p>
<h2>Governing the system</h2>
<p>The electoral process in Australia is governed by the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/">Commonwealth Electoral Act (1918)</a>, and a range of significant reforms were made to the electoral process during the Hawke Labor government’s first term.</p>
<p>One significant reform was the introduction of the Group Ticket Vote (GTV) for the Senate. This implemented the black line on the Senate ballot paper and gave voters the option of placing a “1” for their favourite party above the line, or vote for each candidate below the line. Not withstanding debates about the transparency about preference deals, this reform has increased the rate of the formal vote for the Senate.</p>
<p>The reforms also introduced the “Inclusive Gregory Method” for counting votes for the Senate, which ensures that all ballots are now counted rather than using the old system of random sampling to decide electoral contests.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most important feature of the 1984 reforms was the establishment of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) as a statutory authority which is responsible for the conduct of federal elections.</p>
<p>Notions of fairness are enhanced by the fact that the AEC has upheld its impartial and non-partisan approach to managing the electoral roll and the running of elections. This is in contrast to the approach used in the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/public-service-heads-may-yet-get-to-keep-them-20130917-2tx0o.html">United States</a>, for example, which does not have such an entity overseeing elections.</p>
<h2>Past close elections</h2>
<p>The AEC is required to undertake a recount for a lower house district if the difference at the end of the count between the two leading candidates is 100 votes or fewer. There is also scope for candidates to order a recount but only if they have evidence of specific cases of errors.</p>
<p>In 2007, the AEC <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/2007/12_11.htm">undertook a recount</a> of more than 100,000 ballot papers in the seat of McEwen after the incumbent MP, Liberal Fran Bailey, claimed some papers were missing or not accepted as valid. At that stage Bailey appeared to have lost the seat to Labor’s Rob Mitchell by just six votes.</p>
<p>As part of the recount, the validity of over 600 ballot papers came into question with the AEC upholding the principle of maximising franchise which ultimately resulted in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-12-19/bailey-wins-mcewen-recount/993348">Bailey’s re-election</a>. Mitchell appealed the decision to the High Court of Australia in its capacity as the Court of Disputed Returns, which referred it to the Federal Court - which finally <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/court-confirms-bailey-win-20080702-30on.html">upheld Bailey’s win</a>, over 200 days after polling day itself.</p>
<h2>Close elections in 2013</h2>
<p>There were some very close results at this election. In a high profile case in the Victorian seat of Indi, for example, the incumbent Sophie Mirabella was in a tight race with independent Cathy McGowan. But Mirabella, having accepted the count to be fair, has <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/sophie-mirabella-surrenders-seat-of-indi-after-conceding-victory-to-cathy-mcgowan/story-fn9qr68y-1226721804748">conceded defeat</a> to her opponent.</p>
<p>If the margin between Clive Palmer and his LNP opponent Ted O'Brien continues to be fewer than 100 votes, the AEC will undertake a recount. Recent history suggests that the current systems in place will see the rightful candidate elected to parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tony Abbott was today sworn in as Australia’s 28th prime minister. The election results, however, are yet to be formally declared, with some controversy surrounding the counting of votes in the electorate…Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/182732013-09-17T05:16:12Z2013-09-17T05:16:12ZMirabella and gender: vicious attacks show nothing’s changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31447/original/3vpsdyjt-1379391473.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal politician Sophie Mirabella, who is likely to lose her Victorian seat of Indi, has been subjected to the misogyny that continues to pervade Australian politics.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hard-faced.</p>
<p>I’m looking at that phrase and wondering exactly what it means.</p>
<p>Of course, I know what it means when it’s applied to men. They are heroic, they’ve seen things that those of us who are more sheltered should never see. They are game for life. Indeed, they have to hide their feelings to protect us from the enemy.</p>
<p>It is, as a young student of mine said, a compliment when it’s applied to men. But what does it mean when it’s applied to women? Susan Butler, the editor of the Macquarie Dictionary, replies instantly when I ask her.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hard-faced bitch comes to my mind as a standard derogatory insulting remark.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is, she says, no implication that a “hard-faced bitch” may have a soft heart. “She’s born that way,” says Butler.</p>
<p>And it’s standard political commentary when it comes to describing women who are ambitious and who display their ambition. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3850006.htm">This week</a>, Sophie Mirabella was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ciao-bella-sophie-prepares-to-exit-stage-right-20130912-2tnkj.html">described as “hard-faced”</a>. In short, Mirabella copped the Julia Gillard treatment, although there was no mention of the size of any of her <a href="https://theconversation.com/dining-out-on-the-prime-minister-time-to-change-the-menugate-15161">body parts</a>.</p>
<p>There is no question. Mirabella, who looks like she will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/vote-count-in-victorian-seat-of-indi-almost-complete/4961890">lose her Victorian seat of Indi</a> to independent Cathy McGowan, is an unpopular figure. That’s not my opinion speaking – that’s the voice of her electorate which did not emulate the nation’s swing to the Coalition.</p>
<p>This has zero to do with her public persona – it’s a judgment made by the people who voted her into their seat. It’s not because she watched GetUp’s Simon Sheikh <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mirabella-in-shock-when-qa-panellist-fainted-20120702-21dks.html">keel over</a> on the ABC’s Q&A. It’s not because of her <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/mirabella-in-hot-seat-over-qc-lovers-dying-days-20110922-1knct.html">relationship</a> with her former partner and mentor Colin Howard, although those things shape the public consciousness.</p>
<p>But the wholesale and loathsome enthusiasm for her demise is not about how she represented Indi. It’s the response of a national electorate which has an appetite for talking about women as if they were dogs. Or bitches.</p>
<p>Mirabella herself conspired in the formation of this discourse when she appeared beneath the now infamous <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/pinocchio-gillard-strong-antigillard-emissions-at-canberra-carbon-tax-protest-20110323-1c5w7.html">“Ditch the Witch” signs</a>. But that’s not reason enough to treat her that way.</p>
<p>We describe women in politics or in power in a way we would never describe men. Just turn to page 106 of Anne Summers’ book <a href="http://annesummers.com.au/books/the-misogyny-factor/">The Misogyny Factor</a> to look at the inventory of remarks about our former prime minister, a catalogue which begins with bitch, continues through moll, and ends with whore.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s an extension of what happens to any woman, anywhere. We now all know, thanks to a 2006 University of Maryland study, that anyone with a female username on the internet is <a href="http://phys.org/news66401288.html">25 times more likely to be trolled</a>. Don’t think that only happens on the internet. It happens to women in real life, with real names, who are real people. To Julia Gillard. To Sophie Mirabella. I wrote a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-attacks-partys-promotion-of-women-20130916-2tu2r.html">story</a> about Liberal Senator Sue Boyce this week because she thinks the lack of <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbott-flies-female-lite-with-his-frontbench-18266">representation of women in Cabinet</a> is a national disgrace. The emails I received about her were the actual disgrace.</p>
<p>Women agree that women are treated badly.</p>
<p>Don’t think it’s my imagination. As Crikey’s Cathy Alexander <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/09/03/essential-if-julian-gillard-were-pm-hed-be-riding-higher/">wrote last year</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If Julia Gillard was Julian Gillard, she’d get an easier time of it.</p>
<p>A new Essential Research poll has found 51% of those surveyed thought Gillard “had been subject to more personal criticism than a male prime minister would be”, while just 6% thought she copped less flak than a man would.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Women feel the difference: 61% of women thought Gillard was criticised more than a man would be criticised.</p>
<p>I think that publishers need to take some responsibility for what they publish – particularly in opinion pieces. </p>
<p>Do I want censorship?</p>
<p>Here’s my answer. We’ve stopped using the word nigger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a cofounder of the feminist action group Destroy the Joint; am an active feminist in my personal life; and am a UTS academic in journalism and social media. I also give lectures at UTS on social media activism, including the story of Destroy the Joint, applying the theories of Manuel Castells.</span></em></p>Hard-faced. I’m looking at that phrase and wondering exactly what it means. Of course, I know what it means when it’s applied to men. They are heroic, they’ve seen things that those of us who are more…Jenna Price, Senior lecturer, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181402013-09-12T06:08:27Z2013-09-12T06:08:27ZLost and found: the case of the ‘missing votes’ in Indi<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31230/original/k2nvqmw6-1378964644.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coalition frontbencher Sophie Mirabella appears likely to be unseated in her rural Victorian seat of Indi by a popular local independent candidate, Cathy McGowan.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following a close count on election night, the result in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/indi-and-the-politics-of-personality-17228">rural Victorian electorate of Indi</a> is still unknown. As the counting of votes <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sophie-mirabella-withdraws-from-frontbench-contention-20130912-2tlon.html">continued</a>, it was still unclear whether Liberal incumbent Sophie Mirabella will hold onto the seat, or whether independent candidate Cathy McGowan will produce an upset result.</p>
<p>In any case, McGowan’s bid for election was boosted last night when the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-11/misplaced-votes-extend-mcgowans-lead-over-mirabella-in-indi/4951666">found a box</a> of first preference votes that was mistakenly labelled. Instead of marking the box as containing 2,115 votes for McGowan, the AEC had marked it as containing 1,115 votes.</p>
<p>The error was discovered when a re-check found there were 1,000 additional votes for the Senate than the House of Representatives in the Wangaratta pre-polling station.</p>
<p>Finding the error suggests the AEC’s systems are effective, but they also highlight how the voting system comprises components that must all work together in order to reach a final result. At the close of the polls on election night, AEC officers manually count the ballot papers. </p>
<p>In addition to the official counters, the parties often nominate scrutineers who are responsible for inspecting the votes and how they are counted.</p>
<p>The Australian voting system is fairly robust. It is administered by the AEC which is a statutory authority, making it an arm’s length from the direct influence of parties or the government of the day. </p>
<p>It engages in continuous roll monitoring to ensure that it remains up to date. The AEC also spends a lot of effort in reviewing its processes, especially in weeding out <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/Backgrounders/files/2010-eb-fraud-and-multiple-voting.pdf">enrolment fraud</a>.</p>
<p>Despite these measures, sometimes things can go a bit awry. In 2010, for example, there were reports of irregular handling of pre-poll votes in the seats of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/e2010/10-01.htm">Boothby and Flynn</a>. After investigating the premature opening of ballot boxes by AEC officers, it was decided that a combined total of 4,283 votes were excluded from the final count. </p>
<p>In 2007, Labor’s Rob Mitchell was declared the winner in McEwen by just seven votes. After recounting more than 100,000 ballot papers, however, Liberal Fran Bailey was returned with a majority of just 12 votes.</p>
<p>There are back-up systems in place if a candidate believes an election result is incorrect. In particular, the High Court of Australia, siting as the Court of Disputed Returns, may inquire into the conduct of federal elections.</p>
<p>Some, such as Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull, have argued for the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/lets-ditch-the-paper-ballots-and-go-electric-malcolm-turnbull-20130910-2thiy.html">introduction of electronic voting</a>. Suggesting that such a system would yield less informal votes, proponents also suggest it would simplify the counting process. A switch to electronic voting, however, would require changes to the Electoral Act. It would raise questions about the integrity of such a process, especially in terms of being “hacker”-proof.</p>
<p>The current situation in Indi highlights how simple errors can make a major impact on electoral outcomes. So far, however, the AEC has demonstrated that it is able to deal with problems as they arise and maintain the integrity of, and confidence in, the voting system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following a close count on election night, the result in the rural Victorian electorate of Indi is still unknown. As the counting of votes continued, it was still unclear whether Liberal incumbent Sophie…Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172282013-08-26T20:19:25Z2013-08-26T20:19:25ZIndi and the politics of personality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29744/original/zt7ks4nf-1377152844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coalition frontbencher Sophie Mirabella has an unexpected fight on her hands is to retain her rural Victorian electorate of Indi.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/files/2010/2010-aec-a4-map-vic-indi.pdf">federal Victorian seat of Indi</a> covers a major part of Victoria’s northeast. The Hume Highway and the Melbourne-to-Sydney railway run through the electorate’s demographic centre and at various points intersect the major population centres of Benalla, Wangaratta and Wodonga, just south of Albury and the NSW border. </p>
<p>The sprawling electorate predominantly relies on agriculture, but its economy is supplemented by tourism from the nearby Hume and Dartmouth dams Lake Eildon and the northeast alpine region, administrative services and education. </p>
<p>The median family income of the seat is <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED221">A$936 per week</a>, well below the state-wide median of $1216 per week. Within its nearly 98,000 enrolled voters, 20- to 30-year-olds are under-represented, while the 86% who are Australian-born is well above the state-wide figure of 69%.</p>
<p>Indi is a rural seat typical of those found among the Liberal Party’s safer divisions. It is currently on a two-party preferred margin of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/indi.htm">close to 10%</a>, although the seat was held by the National (formerly Country) Party from 1958 to 1977. </p>
<p>In 1977, Liberal candidate E.C. Cameron won the seat in a “three-cornered” contest (between the Liberals, the ALP and the then-Country Party), and Indi has been in Liberal hands ever since. The Liberal Party’s grip can only be partially attributed to the Coalition agreement. When Cameron retired in 1993, his Liberal successor Lou Lieberman and subsequently the current sitting member, Sophie Mirabella (née Panopoulos), had to battle with Labor and the National Party as well as other minor parties and independents to win it. </p>
<p>When she won the seat in 2001, Mirabella secured 40.1% of the primary vote to the Nationals’ 12.3%. It is interesting to note that while Liberal candidates outpoll their National rivals in Indi on those occasions when a National candidate can run under the terms of the Coalition agreement, National candidates tend to outdo their Liberal counterparts in the concomitant state districts of Murray Valley and Benalla (but not Benambra in the far northeast, which remains a Liberal stronghold). </p>
<p>Indi is not a marginal seat, the potential for the Liberal and National parties to have a go at each other notwithstanding. As a sitting member and a shadow minister in a party that appears to be on its way back to government, one could expect Mirabella to win with an increased majority. Even so, an element of doubt has crept into the contest with the nomination of an independent candidate, <a href="http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/">Cathy McGowan</a>. </p>
<p>McGowan is a former Liberal Party member - she worked for E.C. Cameron - with a strong local profile. She has gained the attention of the local media not least because of the enthusiasm with which some of her campaign events in the major population centres have been met. </p>
<p>The viability of McGowan’s candidacy appears to have been enhanced by two other important developments: first, the Labor Party, which tends to poll around 27% in this seat, is indicating that it will <a href="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/08/19/579950_politics-news.html">direct preferences to McGowan</a>. There are also rumours that local Nationals, aggrieved at the Liberal Party’s decision to run a candidate against the Nationals’ high-profile candidate <a href="http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/1432051/nationals-give-andrew-broad-the-nod/">Andrew Broad</a> in Mallee, are <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/mirabella-at-risk-in-three-corner-revenge/story-e6frfkp9-1226698074667">aligning themselves</a> with McGowan. </p>
<p>The theory goes that the support of National voters in the seat combined with the shift of Labor and Liberal voters could push McGowan ahead of Labor in the count and allow her to overtake Mirabella with Labor preferences. Support for Mirabella measured in a <a href="http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/fairfax-media-indi-poll-15august2013">recent ReachTEL poll</a> had the Liberal vote at 43%, McGowan on 23% and Labor candidate Robyn Walsh on 17%. On these figures, the outcome would be close and McGowan would be in with a chance of pinching the seat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sophie Mirabella is being challenged a strong local independent candidate, Cathy McGowan, for her seat of Indi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While strong independent campaigns in rural districts are not unknown in Australian politics, McGowan’s momentum is a little surprising given the poor press received by rural independents in the advent of the minority Labor government that depended on Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott for its survival. One might have thought the time was hardly opportune for another aspiring rural independent seeking to win support from traditionally strong Liberal voters if the last time rural independents held the balance of power it resulted in a Labor government.</p>
<p>Other manifestations of rural unrest - such as the rise of One Nation in 1998 - coincided with a period of Coalition government and a strong sense of rural dissatisfaction with the Howard government’s policy approach. McGowan’s campaign rhetoric is full of reference to notions of rural disadvantage but it is Labor, not the Liberal Party, that has been the party of government. Therefore Mirabella, as a shadow minister, has not been in charge of any policies that might affect her constituents directly. </p>
<p>With the exception of the role being played by strains in the Liberal-National coalition arrangement in Victorian state politics, the only other explanation for the momentum behind McGowan’s candidature is that it is primarily a personal campaign against Mirabella. This is presumably due to more than dissatisfaction with her role as the shadow industry minister or her contributions to national policy debate. </p>
<p>This contest will give an insight into the extent to which personality politics can displace party identity as a driver of voter choice. Mirabella is the sitting Liberal member in a strong Liberal-voting seat. There can be no National candidate as a result of the federal Coalition agreement, and the national polls are showing that voters are aligning themselves to the Coalition to vote the Labor party out of government. Given all of this, Mirabella ought to win Indi and win it very comfortably. </p>
<p>If, however, McGowan were to win Indi, this conventional approach to electoral behaviour would have to be re-thought. As a result, more weight would have to be attached to the politics of personality conflict as an influence in electoral contests, for this is what the campaign for Indi has become. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal Victorian seat of Indi covers a major part of Victoria’s northeast. The Hume Highway and the Melbourne-to-Sydney railway run through the electorate’s demographic centre and at various points…Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159172013-07-15T20:54:36Z2013-07-15T20:54:36ZFactCheck: is Australia losing one manufacturing job every 19 minutes?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27561/original/pwb28w2d-1374009525.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australian manufacturing workers are feeling the heat of economic change.</span> </figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p><strong>“Under this [Labor] government we’ve seen one manufacturing job lost every 19 minutes.” - Opposition industry spokeswoman <a href="http://www.sophiemirabella.com.au/Home.aspx">Sophie Mirabella</a>, Q&A, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3780235.htm">1 July</a>.</strong> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Conversation contacted Mirabella’s office to request a source for this claim, and a spokesman quickly responded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Sophie’s comment on Q&A was based on ABS data… the Labour Detailed Quarterly collection (cat no. 6291.0.55.003). If you open Table 04 in the series of spreadsheets available in that collection, then the ‘Data 1’ tab, and then column W, you’ll see it contains seasonally adjusted manufacturing employment figures from 1984 to the current day.</p>
<p>"For the ‘1 every 19 minutes’ calculation, Sophie was using the decline from 1,081,700 employees for February 2008 (the first reading after Labor was elected at the end of 2007) through to the most recent number of 938,300 for May 2013. That’s an overall loss of 143,400 jobs over a period of five-and-a-quarter years, or 273 weeks.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Dividing that jobs figure by the time elapsed, Mirabella’s office came up with the total of around one job lost every 19 minutes. The spokesman added: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It’s worth pointing out that at no time prior to this period of Labor Government has the total number of jobs in Australian manufacturing ever fallen below the 1 million mark, let alone by so far under that mark. I may be wrong, but I also don’t think there’s ever been such a sustained loss of manufacturing jobs over a five-year period.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So are those calculations right? Is it true that Australian manufacturing has had a particularly bad five years compared to the past? And to put that in some context, how has manufacturing fared in other industralised countries?</p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>Employment figures by industry are available from <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.003May%202013?OpenDocument">the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on a quarterly basis</a>. That data is also available through the <a href="http://stats.oecd.org/">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Short Term Labour Market Statistics</a>. The OECD version reports data to the unit, while the ABS version rounds up data to the nearest hundred.</p>
<p>Kevin Rudd was elected prime minister on 24 November 2007, towards the end of the fourth quarter of the year, so I have examined employment data from the first quarter of 2008 to the end of the second quarter of 2013 to cover when Labor has been in power to date.</p>
<p>The ABS data shows that there were 1,081,664 manufacturing jobs at the start of 2008 and 938,280 by the second quarter of 2013 - meaning there was a net decline of 143,384 jobs.</p>
<p>In that time, there were 22 quarters, each averaging 91.25 days. Since there are 24 x 60 = 1440 minutes in a day, the total number of minutes in a quarter is equal to 1440 x 91.25 = 131,400. Hence, in 22 quarters there are 22 x 131,400 = 2,890,800 minutes. Dividing 2,890,800 by 143,384 one obtains 20.16, which means that one manufacturing job was lost every 20 minutes from the first quarter of 2008 up until the second quarter of this year.</p>
<p>Mirabella’s figure is slightly different because instead of counting the duration of the time in government in quarters, she counts it in months, starting from February 2008 and ending in May 2013. This approach is consistent with the fact that ABS collects quarterly data on the second month of each quarter. This way of counting yields a total of 2,759,400 minutes. Dividing this number by 143,384 we obtain 19.24; that is, one job lost every 19 minutes.</p>
<p>Both counts are acceptable and they yield very similar results, so I would consider both to be numerically correct. </p>
<p>But what does it mean that Australia is losing one manufacturing job was lost every 19 (or 20) minutes? It is worth putting that in some historical and international context.</p>
<h2>Made in Australia: a recent history</h2>
<p>The data series available from the ABS goes back to the mid-1980s. So it is possible to compute “minutes for one manufacturing job loss” for five consecutive periods of 22 quarters, from the first quarter of 1986 through to the second quarter of 2013.</p>
<p>As noted earlier, the last of those periods corresponds to the Rudd/Gillard Labor governments. The results of this exercise are summarised in Chart 1 below:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27279/original/4pb572cf-1373508132.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart 1: Minutes between jobs lost or created in Australian manufacturing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author’s calculation from ABS data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chart suggests that the loss of manufacturing job is not a recent phenomenon: with the exception of the 1991-1996 period, all other 22-month periods since 1986 are characterised by a decline in manufacturing employment.</p>
<p>But it is correct that the pace at which jobs in manufacturing are lost has been faster in the most recent period. </p>
<p>In the 22 quarters preceding the beginning of the first Rudd government, one manufacturing job was lost every 140 minutes. </p>
<p>Before that, from the start of 1997 to mid-2002, one manufacturing job was lost about every two hours.</p>
<p>And in the period from the start of 1986 to the second quarter of 1991, one manufacturing job was lost about every hour.</p>
<h2>Rudd vs Gillard</h2>
<p>Some recent trends in Australian employment are worth noting, including that manufacturing job losses slowed considerably while Julia Gillard was prime minister.</p>
<p>In the 10 quarters of the first Rudd government, one manufacturing job was lost every 12.5 minutes; during the 12 quarters of the Gillard government, one manufacturing job was lost every 29 minutes.</p>
<p>However, this is not really surprising, given that the early years of the Rudd government corresponded to the most acute phase of the Global Financial Crisis.</p>
<h2>Jobs growth in the wider economy</h2>
<p>The employment data also shows that the loss of jobs in manufacturing has been matched by a gain of jobs in other sectors. </p>
<p>Seasonally adjusted total employment data for the second quarter of this year are not yet available. So, one can only compute changes in total employment over the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2013.</p>
<p>Over these 21 quarters, total employment (including manufacturing) in Australia increase by 836,490 units. This is equivalent to one new job being created every 3 minutes.</p>
<h2>The global picture</h2>
<p>Finally, it is worth looking at a global perspective using <a href="http://stats.oecd.org/">OECD Short Term Labour Market Statistics</a>.</p>
<p>Using the same methodology described above, we can determine “minutes for one manufacturing job loss” for each of the 34 OECD member nations, including Australia, over the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2013.</p>
<p>Chart 2, below, shows how Australia compares with other OECD nations on manufacturing employment. The first column is the main one; I have included the column on the right in order to include countries for which 2013 figures are not yet available.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27379/original/xz2pqbnf-1373609920.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=953&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chart 2: Manufacturing job trends among OECD nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author’s computation based on OECD Short Term Labour Market Statistics.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Chart 3, below, shows a comparison between Australia and six of the G7 economies (second quarter 2013 data was not yet available for France, so it was excluded from the comparison).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/27199/original/bd5s7brs-1373419765.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chart 3: Author’s calculations from OECD, Short Term Labour Force Statistics data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As it can be seen, the experience of Australia is not unique.</p>
<p>In fact, five out of the six other countries used for this comparison lost manufacturing jobs at a faster rate than Australia (one every 2 minutes in the US and Japan, one every five minutes in the UK and Italy, and one every 12 minutes in Canada).</p>
<p>The loss of manufacturing jobs is a common phenomenon in many industrialised countries and it is partly due to the process of structural transformation of the economy. Furthermore, the Global Financial Crisis hit manufacturing hard worldwide.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Sophie Mirabella’s calculations of manufacturing job losses are correct.</p>
<p>Her spokesman’s assertion that manufacturing jobs have been lost at a faster rate in the past five years than other recent five-year periods (going back to 1986) is also correct.</p>
<p>However, these job losses should be considered in their wider international context, including the Global Financial Crisis and an even sharper decline in manufacturing jobs in a number of other industralised economies.</p>
<p>While manufacturing jobs have been lost in Australia, over the past 21 quarters total employment (including manufacturing) has increased at a rate of one new job created every 3 minutes.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>I have gone through both the Mirabella statement and this author’s comments. These comments confirm that Mirabella’s original statement, with some minor quibbling, was basically correct.</p>
<p>The main point seems to me to be not the factual accuracy but, as the author points out, the phenomenon that manufacturing employment has been on the slide for over 40 years, no matter who has been in power. This is as a result of structural change, whereby manual labour has been replaced by labour requiring knowledge and people skills as we become an advanced, service-based economy.</p>
<p>There is no reason why we would necessarily regret the passing of skills no longer in demand and the stronger growth in demand for different skills, as long as jobs growth overall increases. There are, however, problems for those workers whose skills are no longer in demand who may find it difficult to gain employment in the new growth areas of the economy. <strong>- Phil Lewis</strong></p>
<p><div class="callout">The Conversation is fact checking political statements in the lead-up to this year’s federal election. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert reviews an anonymous copy of the article.Request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the econometric estimation of the piecewise linear continuos model and its macroeconomic applications.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phil Lewis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“Under this [Labor] government we’ve seen one manufacturing job lost every 19 minutes.” - Opposition industry spokeswoman Sophie Mirabella, Q&A, 1 July. The Conversation contacted Mirabella’s office…Fabrizio Carmignani, Associate Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153672013-07-01T20:36:57Z2013-07-01T20:36:57ZDoes Indonesia care about turning back the boats?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/26600/original/58ymqf9d-1372657449.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just how much co-operation can Tony Abbott expect from Indonesia leaders on his plan to turn back asylum seeker boats?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Adi Weda</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the coming days, prime minister Kevin Rudd will <a href="https://theconversation.com/kevin-rudd-set-to-give-planes-and-boats-to-indonesia-in-visit-this-week-15674">visit Indonesia</a> to discuss asylum seeker policy with Indonesian officials, including Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Rudd’s visit will no doubt further a national debate that has recently dominated Australian political discourse.</p>
<p>At this stage, the days-old Rudd government has provided little solution to the issue, but has promised to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/abbott-challenges-rudd-on-asylum-boat-policy/story-fnho52ip-1226671089066">work collaboratively</a> with the Indonesian government to find one. The Coalition, on the other hand, has been <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/abbott-challenges-rudd-on-asylum-boat-policy/story-fnho52ip-1226671089066">extremely vocal</a> in their presentation of asylum seeker policy.</p>
<p>But according to Rudd, if opposition leader Tony Abbott’s policy was to be implemented, there would be a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-28/rudd-extends-deadline-for-school-funding-reforms/4787724">conflict with Indonesia</a> later this year.</p>
<p>Abbott, of course, said there will be no conflict. Shadow foreign minister Julie Bishop said that in private conversations with senior Indonesian politicians and officials, they have confirmed that Indonesia would <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/02/indonesia-people-smuggler-boats-julie-bishop">“co-operate”</a> with the initiative to turn the boats around.</p>
<p>But Bishop’s claims have been met by public assertions to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-14/indonesia-rejects-opposition-asylum-seeker-policy/4753128">contrary</a> from many Indonesian officials, including vice president Boediono, foreign minister Marty Natalegawa and Indonesia’s Ambassador to Australia Nadjib Riphat Kesoema. </p>
<p>While it is a little surprising that Bishop herself feels free to reveal the content of such conversations, it is true that the megaphone has often been the chosen device for Australian diplomatic communication with Indonesia.</p>
<p>If Abbott takes office later this year and implements his policy of turning back the boats, it is clear what Yudhoyono will do. He will follow his trademark political strategy: do nothing. There is no political incentive for him to do anything else, which it can only be assumed that Tony Abbott is well aware of.</p>
<p>This, however, is not the real question.</p>
<p>The real question is what Yudhoyono’s successor as Indonesian president would do. Presidential elections are due to be held in Indonesia in July 2014. If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round, then a second round of voting - limited to the top two candidates - will be held in September. And Yudhoyono cannot stand again, having reached the constitutionally-determined limit of two terms.</p>
<p>The campaign for the election has already begun. Advertising for the three currently declared candidates – Aburizal Bakrie, Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto - has been splashed across televisions throughout the country. </p>
<p>Most polls are currently showing <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/04/29/prabowo-wiranto-compete-be-most-electable-2014.html">Prabowo in the lead</a>, though generally with only about 20% of the survey vote. But there are other candidates expected to come forward in the next few months. These include Joko Widodo, the Jakarta govenor; Jusuf Kalla, Yudhoyono’s first Vice President; Mahfud MD, the Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court; and Megawati Sukarnoputri - though the recent death of her husband may change her plans.</p>
<p>For all of these candidates, the asylum seeker issue is not a major policy concern. It does have some resonance domestically, but mostly in terms of the desire of asylym seekers to flee Indonesia - and the plight they face in doing so. The “not my problem” syndrome is <a href="http://theconversation.com/not-our-problem-the-indonesian-perspective-on-asylum-seekers-8053">still dominant</a>. </p>
<p>Indeed, the Indonesian relationship with Australia as a whole is not particularly important to Indonesia’s presidential candidates.</p>
<p>What this means is that the response to Abbott’s plans will be opportunistic rather than principled. They will be influenced by how the issue plays out in local and regional politics rather than in terms of any humanitarian concerns. In other words – it will be a response remarkably similar to Australia’s.</p>
<p>Of the declared Indonesian presidential candidates, currently only Prabowo looks like he has a serious chance of winning the top job. Can we say anything about how he might respond to the opposition’s policy? One Indonesian academic <a href="http://www.news.com.au/news/world/in-limbo-waiting-for-a-boat-in-indonesia/story-e6frg6so-1226573845546">said of him</a> recently that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>He will be very cruel to Australia. He will let the boats go. He will give food and petrol and money to ships and tell them to just go, go to Australia. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is probably – hopefully - an exaggeration. But Prabowo certainly has no affection for Australia, and would not hesitate to frustrate Australian government policy if there was political benefit in doing so. And his track record suggests he would be quite prepared to sacrifice the lives of asylum seekers to make a political point.</p>
<p>But even if it is someone else who ends up as Indonesian president in 2014, there is no guarantee that their position will be any more favourable to Australia. All the arguments that have previously attempted to explain Indonesia’s reluctance to additionally assist Australia in this matter will still be valid.</p>
<p>These arguments may have been strengthened during the election campaign. It currently seems likely that many of the candidates will campaign on platforms of greater political and economic nationalism than was the case in 2009. </p>
<p>In the Indonesian community, there is currently a rising sense of concern at the influence that foreigners and foreign interests are supposedly having on domestic and foreign policy. No new president is likely to go against this trend, and allow Australia to be seen to be dictating policy to Indonesia.</p>
<p>Regardless of who wins the next Indonesian elections, it seems highly unlikely they would accept the return of asylum seekers. Does this mean there will be conflict with Indonesia if Abbott tries to “turn the boats back” later this year, should he win government?</p>
<p>The avoidance of conflict lies largely in Abbott’s court – even moreso given his assertion that his foreign policy would be focused on in <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coalition-to-scrap-carbon-tax-but-keep-labors-tax-and-benefit-changes/story-e6frfkp9-1226644749515">Jakarta rather than Geneva</a>.</p>
<p>So if Tony Abbott does take office as prime minister later this year, look out for a creative interpretation of what “co-operate” means.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the coming days, prime minister Kevin Rudd will visit Indonesia to discuss asylum seeker policy with Indonesian officials, including Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Rudd’s visit will…Colin Brown, Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/80552012-07-03T07:11:08Z2012-07-03T07:11:08ZSophie Mirabella shouldn’t be attacked for failing to emote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12569/original/k69t2v3k-1341298841.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella has been criticised for her failure to respond when GetUp director Simon Sheikh collapsed on Q+A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABC Television</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>By 9AM yesterday I’d been called a Sophie Mirabella apologist. Of all the very many slurs I’ve ever been subjected to, that one came as one hell of a surprise. And I just thought I was defending every woman who has ever “failed” to properly emote.</p>
<p>The entire <em>Q&A</em> debacle went for under a minute. Under. One. Minute. One second Greg Combet was rabbiting on about something vaguely sleep-inducing and the next second Simon Sheikh’s head hit the table. I don’t know how I would have reacted had I been at that desk. I do know however, that watching at home, my initial assumption was theatrics. </p>
<p>Myself, I’m quite prone to histrionic demonstrations of protest. I’ve sat, for example, in cinemas and thrown my head back against the seat, sighing out loud, out proud, in pain, in boredom. Equally, I’ve been in too many a staff meeting where yet another dead debate has been rehashed. In fury, in frustration, my head has noisily thumped on the table too. </p>
<p>Because sometimes it’s just rude to scream out, “Oh good God, when will it end?” </p>
<p>Because sometimes physical theatrics are the only way to appropriately convey dissent. </p>
<p>A minute into the <em>Q&A</em> spectacle and we realised that Simon Sheikh had taken what grandma might term <em>a turn</em>. At the time however – during that teeny tiny minute which has sparked such speculation and scorn - Sophie Mirabella looked on with an expression strongly resembling disgust. This, apparently, was not the <em>appropriate</em> reaction. At least, not so <em>for a woman</em>. </p>
<p>Lindy Chamberlain. Casey Anthony. Joanna Lees. Women who were each publicly vilified based on the weakest and yet most damning of evidence: the failure to appropriately – to <em>femininely</em> - emote. They didn’t do the tears, they didn’t do the breast-beating, the shrieking, the hair-pulling. <em>Instead</em>, they dared keep composed, dared not to publicly <em>feel</em>.</p>
<p>While I’ve not yet stumbled upon it myself, apparently there’s a handbook out there for women with some very precise shoulds when it comes to conveying emotions. And, seemingly, near on everyone with a Twitter account has read this book, has pounced on the chapter about dealing with the “potentially infirm” and learnt that the appropriate response is Florence Nightingale mode. </p>
<p>Of the very many gendered burdens heaped on the shoulders of women is that of natural emotional sensitivity. Apparently, as women, we’re supposed to be able to read people, read situations, and respond accordingly. <em>Intuitively</em>. All in under one minute. Apparently Sophie Mirabella should have known, instinctively, that Simon Sheikh was sick rather than merely dabbling in a little bit of silly bugger youthful petulance. Not doing so and judgment, contempt and vitriol got hurled at her in spades.</p>
<p>All in under one minute.</p>
<p>Men get away with not having to front press conferences in tears. Men get away with choosing to rein back in a live television program rather than fetching a cold compress and a glass of flat lemonade. Men get away with not hair stroking or back rubbing or cooing “there, there”. Because showing their feelings is not <em>their</em> burden.</p>
<p>For a woman to dare pause, take stock, and to shy away from an opportunity to appropriately emote and she is thought of as cold and unfeeling and calculating.</p>
<p>Because double standards are alive, well and (predictably) grounds for one hell of a witch hunt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/8055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Rosewarne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By 9AM yesterday I’d been called a Sophie Mirabella apologist. Of all the very many slurs I’ve ever been subjected to, that one came as one hell of a surprise. And I just thought I was defending every…Lauren Rosewarne, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.