tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/space-storm-2512/articlesSpace storm – The Conversation2016-08-31T15:59:26Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/646212016-08-31T15:59:26Z2016-08-31T15:59:26ZHow space weather poses a risk to the finance industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136083/original/image-20160831-30762-19fml4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/8640589344/in/photolist-eaxhbm-ro44H3-pa3e7R-rjQRm5-psPv5W-q1Gxw5-6zxYvb-puPSSC-d5UHiu-nDePcB-5utymV-absVw6-dSDgae-bozyiY-97nyAt-4PnMyH-qaiCAK-awVaEv-pAwBok-8Chf6V-5e21hd-oqfcK2-8oC7N1-dyKu1P-qrKaYe-oUoA7k-dyKuX4-asBADA-qvvYiY-p7Pc2U-egcv1D-dtvHND-pvyZdV-ksysHk-dyKFkM-dtvHbg-7LQndv-ksLoo4-pvLg2g-bBeBbR-nY7r2k-cmkfV-qqyNm8-jCfMcP-KTiyQ-rhRoCb-bzakEj-dtBfWJ-jb2RnM-pLujVY">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The conventional risks to finance – interest rate changes, currency fluctuations or just the outcome of a non-binding referendum – are well known. But there is another factor that can affect banking and investment funds, which most of us are less aware of: “space weather”.</p>
<p>The consequences of living close to a dynamic star such as the sun – apart from it keeping our planet at just the right temperature to exist – are the eruptions and explosions it produces. These can can cause disturbances to the Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere which can disrupt a wide range of technological systems that modern society relies on. These include the technology intrinsic to the finance industry. </p>
<p>In the 1800s, it was the telegraph system that was affected. It experienced disruptions to its operation and there were office fires as equipment started sparking during strong space weather storms. Since then, our use of technology has expanded and space weather can cause more damage as a result. Railways, electricity networks and radio communications are all vulnerable to space weather. And the advent of the space age, with our growing dependency on satellites for all forms of communication, has made the problem even more acute.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136086/original/image-20160831-30780-ov53rk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artist’s illustration of events on the sun changing the conditions in near-Earth space.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/6819077978/in/photolist-bozyiY-8Chf6V-97nyAt-5e21hd-4PnMyH-oqfcK2-8oC7N1-qaiCAK-awVaEv-dyKu1P-KTiyQ-qrKaYe-oUoA7k-dyKuX4-asBADA-qvvYiY-p7Pc2U-rhRoCb-bzakEj-egcv1D-dtBfWJ-dtvHND-pvyZdV-ksysHk-dyKFkM-dtvHbg-7LQndv-ksLoo4-pvLg2g-bBeBbR-nY7r2k-cmkfV-qqyNm8-jCfMcP-8rjYy5-jb2RnM-pLujVY-omgtsY-mCvZ48-araToX-cE76Ss-egifLq-bESXH-2YNBVy-dyR2S9-pgV6G2-pQZrk7-9iDfMp-oX69UY-8V9XY">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>A wake-up call to the problem came when the Earth experienced a geomagnetic storm that caused Canada’s Hydro-Québec electricity grid to experience strong voltage fluctuations. This triggered the grid’s protection system and the entire network to shut down in less than two minutes. It left several million people without power and cost the economy <a href="http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/46891645.pdf">CAN$6 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Clearly there are risks for investment and retail banks, currency exchanges, investment funds, and insurance and real estate companies – which all rely on systems that are susceptible to space weather. To understand exactly how these risks manifest themselves, space weather experts have been coming together with those from the financial sector. From the discussions a realisation of just how many areas of these businesses could be affected emerged. A <a href="http://luciegreen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/space_weather_and_finance.pdf">new report</a> shows where these impacts may be felt and gives guidelines on how businesses can build resilience when it comes to the threat of space weather.</p>
<h2>Understanding the risks</h2>
<p>The origin of space weather lies in the atmosphere of the sun, which generates strong winds, big bursts of radiation, including X-rays and UV (solar flares), and eruptions of electrically charged gas and magnetic field (coronal mass ejections). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136084/original/image-20160831-30762-1i0u789.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A coronal mass ejection from August 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/7931831962/in/photolist-d5UHiu-nDePcB-5utymV-absVw6-dSDgae-bozyiY-97nyAt-4PnMyH-qaiCAK-awVaEv-pAwBok-8Chf6V-5e21hd-oqfcK2-8oC7N1-dyKu1P-qrKaYe-oUoA7k-dyKuX4-asBADA-qvvYiY-p7Pc2U-egcv1D-dtvHND-pvyZdV-ksysHk-dyKFkM-dtvHbg-7LQndv-ksLoo4-pvLg2g-bBeBbR-nY7r2k-cmkfV-qqyNm8-jCfMcP-KTiyQ-rhRoCb-bzakEj-dtBfWJ-jb2RnM-pLujVY-omgtsY-mCvZ48-araToX-cE76Ss-egifLq-bESXH-dyR2S9-pgV6G2">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1859MNRAS..20...13C&data_type=PDF_HIGH&whole_paper=YES&type=PRINTER&filetype=.pdf">first observation of a solar flare</a> was made more than 100 years ago in 1859. The <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1972BAAS....4R.394T">discovery of coronal mass ejections</a> came much later, in the early 1970s. As well as emitting light and heat, the X-rays, high-energy particles and magnetic field that race towards the Earth disturb the Earth’s own magnetic field and, as well as generating beautiful auroras, induce electric currents where they may not be appreciated.</p>
<p>Lessons from the Hydro-Québec storm and the malfunctioning of satellites over the decades have helped us to understand the level of the risk there is from space weather and how to ward off its effects. National grids are being engineered to be more robust and daily space weather forecasts are issued for the hours and days ahead. The first step toward mitigating against the effects of space weather, is to keep track of it.</p>
<p>At a very basic level, a continuous and uninterrupted power supply is needed for the various systems that are used to make financial trading more profitable and our personal finances increasingly paperless. But during some extreme space weather events, showers of high-energy particles and the radiation from solar flares can affect key systems. This can hinder the processing of the extremely high volume of transactions – the transfer of stocks, shares or money for example. The synchronised timing of transactions is imperative and the time stamp often comes from global positioning satellites, the signals of which can be affected by space weather.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136108/original/image-20160831-30790-ddw1gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The bright flash in the middle is a mid-level solar flare from the sun.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/15857850919/in/photolist-qaiCAK-awVaEv-dyKu1P-KTiyQ-qrKaYe-oUoA7k-dyKuX4-asBADA-qvvYiY-p7Pc2U-rhRoCb-bzakEj-egcv1D-dtBfWJ-dtvHND-pvyZdV-ksysHk-dyKFkM-dtvHbg-7LQndv-ksLoo4-pvLg2g-bBeBbR-nY7r2k-cmkfV-qqyNm8-jCfMcP-8rjYy5-jb2RnM-pLujVY-omgtsY-mCvZ48-araToX-cE76Ss-egifLq-bESXH-2YNBVy-dyR2S9-pgV6G2-pQZrk7-9iDfMp-oX69UY-8V9XY-jJqjHT-qvLFvb-bza9o5-csBTnw-dzfcpn-bBE2Q5-dURu2o">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At a more basic level, space weather can also affect air travel, an increasingly normal function of many businesses. The interruption it can cause to radio communications can cause flights to be disrupted, diverted or even cancelled. </p>
<p>Now that the vulnerabilities are being identified, a range of solutions can be developed. Companies have crisis management teams in place and space weather can be planned for, too. In-house exercises can be run to identify what space weather effects are important to each particular business, and processes can be built or extended accordingly.</p>
<p>So don’t be alarmed by space weather, but equally don’t forget its hidden influence over your day-to-day activities and the glitches in can cause in the technological systems we rely on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucie Green receives funding from the Royal Society and the Leverhulme Trust to investigate the causes of coronal mass ejections, and has received funding from ESA and the UK Space Agency to investigate the impact of space weather and concepts for space-based space weather monitoring.</span></em></p>Our growing dependency on satellites for all forms of communication has made the problem of space weather even more acute.Lucie Green, Professor of Physics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/508872015-11-23T12:44:16Z2015-11-23T12:44:16ZNew early-warning system could protect Earth from explosive space weather<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102814/original/image-20151123-18230-woh9v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/6819077978">NASA Goddard Space Weather Center</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The sun can erupt with flares more energetic than 30 billion times the yield of all nuclear weapons <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=xAwAAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA63&dq=510.3&as_pt=MAGAZINES&pg=PA61#v=onepage&q=510.3&f=false">ever detonated</a>. The energetic particles released by solar flares tunnel a path through our inner solar system with speeds regularly exceeding 6 million kph. If the Earth is unfortunate enough to sweep through the path of these particles, they can cause catastrophic problems by acting like bullets of radiation, damaging electrical and electronic equipment.</p>
<p>Experts have warned that even a single monster solar flare could cause <a href="http://www.inquisitr.com/2550342/white-house-prepares-for-massive-solar-storm-that-could-cause-2-trillion-in-damages/">up to US$2 trillion worth of damage on Earth</a>. This could include the loss of communication and navigation satellites and electricity grids. Dangers to human life and health could follow.</p>
<p>With this in mind, it is no wonder space weather has now been added as one of the greatest dangers to life on Earth in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/419549/20150331_2015-NRR-WA_Final.pdf">UK’s national risk register</a>, only fractionally behind terrorist attacks. It’s paramount that we study the behaviour of the sun so we can create an early-warning system to alert of us impending danger from this kind of space weather.</p>
<h2>Destructive solar flares</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102818/original/image-20151123-18227-3he8cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunspot:Earth ratio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Solar flares’ incredibly destructive power comes from the magnetic fields that are visible across the sun’s entire surface but are most concentrated within regions called sunspots. These spots can be huge, some many times bigger than the Earth, with magnetic field strengths thousands of times more intense than those in the surrounding “quiet” parts of the sun.</p>
<p>As these strong magnetic fields leave the surface of the sun, they extend upwards many thousands of kilometres into the corona, the region of the sun’s atmosphere visible during total solar eclipses. Here they shape the charged particles (plasma) of the corona into giant loop-like structures. The physical strength of the magnetic field lines at the top of these loops is 100 times smaller than similar regions on the solar surface, but the loops still possess immense energy that can twist and shear.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102828/original/image-20151123-18267-16f8911.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What a flare up.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/SDO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Constant buffeting from the underlying atmosphere adds tension to the magnetic field loops, similar to an elastic band being stretched. Scientists believe that when the loops restructure themselves to release this tension they give off a huge blast of electromagnetic energy into space, creating a <a href="http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/flare.htm">solar flare</a>.</p>
<h2>New imaging method</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/102826/original/image-20151123-18255-fujln5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1057&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dunn Solar Telescope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QUB</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My colleagues and I, working with an international team of researchers, have devised a high-precision way of studying the sun’s atmosphere that is up to ten times faster than previous methods. Using images of all layers of the Sun’s atmosphere taken by specialist telescopes on Earth and in space, we have discovered a wealth of compressible waves similar to sound waves travelling along the magnetic loops. We believe these are caused by vibrations close to the solar surface that are initially trapped within the turbulent layers of <a href="http://soi.stanford.edu/press/ssu8-97/pmodes.html">the sun’s interior</a> before leaking outwards towards the visible surface.</p>
<p>The speed of these waves, which can reach 800,000 kph, depends on the characteristics of the sun’s atmosphere, including its temperature of around 1,000,000°C and the strength of its magnetic field. Studying the wave speed and temperature at different locations in the Sun’s atmosphere at any given time allows us to calculate the magnetic field strength at that point. So by studying how the magnetic field changes on very short timescales, we have the potential to identify the precursors responsible for solar flares and space weather.</p>
<figure>
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<p>Our new method, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nphys3544.html">which we describe</a> in the journal Nature Physics, can uncover changes in coronal magnetism within around one minute. This is a dramatic improvement on previous direct imaging approaches that often required exposure times exceeding one hour to be able to extract the faint magnetic signals. This means we have a much faster way of examining magnetic field changes in the lead up to solar flares. Ultimately, this could be used to provide advanced warning against such violent space weather.</p>
<p>Our next goal is to fully automate the processes so we can continually monitor the Sun’s coronal magnetic fields in real-time. We hope to use software with artificial intelligence to study the large amount of data this produces and learn why, how, and ultimately when solar flares will erupt. This may not necessarily protect us from the resulting onslaught but it will provide us with crucial advanced warning. This could buy us enough time to minimise the damage associated with 100 billion kilograms of solar “bullets” speeding towards Earth at over 6 million kph.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Jess receives funding from the UK's Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC).</span></em></p>Researchers have found out how to predict solar flares up to ten times faster than previous methods.David Jess, Lecturer and STFC Ernest Rutherford Fellow, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/426692015-06-02T05:13:29Z2015-06-02T05:13:29ZOur predictions of solar storms have not been very accurate until now – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/83573/original/image-20150601-6955-o0s5r0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ain't half hot: but where's it heading?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=143317899095022600000&searchterm=solar%20storm&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=209449732">Naeblys</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a space hurricane was unleashed from the sun on January 7 2014, space-weather centres around the world <a href="http://www.space.com/24201-sun-unleashes-major-solar-flare-video.html">sent out warnings</a>. The hurricane was heading directly for Earth and was predicted to produce a strong geomagnetic storm. But then an unexpected thing happened: the storm bypassed Earth and headed for Mars instead. It confirmed that our techniques for predicting such events are not as accurate as we would like. I am one of the co-authors of a <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html">new paper that provides</a> an insight into why the predictions were wrong and what we can do about this in future. </p>
<p>Space storms are a regular part of our sun’s activity. These so-called coronal mass ejections are a by-product of dramatic events called solar flares. They happen in active regions of the sun where a great amount of energy is built up in the form of a tangled magnetic field. This acts like a rubber band that has been twisted too far, snapping as it releases its stored energy.</p>
<p>The geomagnetic storms that occur when these ejections hit Earth can have dramatic consequences. Beautiful auroras in the night sky might be sights to behold, but equally GPS and telecommunication systems that rely on satellites can be disrupted, while radio black-outs can make it necessary to re-route air travel. In the worst scenarios, there can be strong surges of electrical currents that cannot be supported by national electric grids. This can lead to major power outages, such as the one <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html">experienced by</a> Montreal and the Quebec region in Canada in March 1989.</p>
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<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>The progress of the January 2014 solar flare in the sun’s atmosphere was monitored by the Solar Dynamics Observatory, a NASA mission launched in 2010 dedicated to our hosting star. Our research team, which was lead by <a href="http://www.iwf.oeaw.ac.at/en/institute/staff/staff/?tx_smemployeelist_pi1%5BempID%5D=1810">Dr Christian Möstl</a> from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, analysed the regions surrounding the storm’s original location on the sun. </p>
<p>We found that the area surrounding it on one side was another intensely active region with a strong magnetic field, while the other side was occupied by a weak magnetic field called a “coronal hole”. The team concluded that the former strong field pushed the erupting storm away, channelling it into the weak field path and away from its original route. </p>
<p><strong>The flare behind the storm</strong></p>
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<p>Once the storm was on its way out into space, it was then recorded by several space probes, including the <a href="http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/">Advanced Composition Explorer</a> in Earth’s orbit and the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/msl/index.html">Curiosity Rover on Mars</a>. In particular, the Martian robot reported a decrease in the cosmic rays in its vicinity, the so-called <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/213051/Forbush-effect">Forbush effect</a>. This phenomenon takes place when the magnetic field of the solar cloud deflects the energetic particles, originating from outer space, which constantly bombard a planet. </p>
<p>This data helped our team to build a model to reproduce the evolution of the solar cloud in space, and hence its arrival times, both at Earth and at the red planet. This should improve the models that scientists use for making real-time forecasts of space weather, such as those used by the <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather/met-office-role">UK MET Office space weather prediction centre</a>, which opened in October 2014.</p>
<p>In short, we reached two conclusions. For accurate forecasts, we will have to monitor the surroundings of the point of origin of the solar activity in future, since these appear to strongly dictate how coronal mass ejections develop. This will ultimately tell us whether a coronal mass ejection will hit the Earth, at which angle and with what intensity. </p>
<p>Second, it is highly important that we continue to improve our models for describing how solar storms evolve once they leave the sun. This is what allows us to predict their arrival times at Earth, enabling national authorities to prepare for their consequences as accurately as possible. To do this, much more research is still required into areas such as the mechanisms underlying the ejection of solar storms, how they evolve in space and how they interact with a planet’s natural magnetic shields. That is a key challenge for my field in the coming months and years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/42669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miho Janvier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Astrophysicists found out after the January 2014 solar flare that their predictions of solar weather were not very accurate. Here’s the fix (kind of).Miho Janvier, Lecturer in Mathematics, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/187472013-10-16T03:28:26Z2013-10-16T03:28:26ZSolar eruption could help Earth prepare for technology melt-down<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/33031/original/pmm3377g-1381792429.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A recent solar eruption just missed Earth; these coronographs show the sun before and during the eruption.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Goddard Space Flight Center</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A sobering study published this month in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/swe.20097/abstract">Space Weather</a> warns why we need to get better prepared for disruptive space weather events - particularly coronal mass ejections.</p>
<p>The current <a href="https://theconversation.com/divert-power-to-shields-the-solar-maximum-is-coming-11228">solar maximum</a> - a period of high solar activity - is showing only a moderate amount of sunspot activity. However, recent space weather events, some of which have resulted in geomagnetic storms on Earth, have been far from insignificant. </p>
<p>Several solar eruptions have hurled vast amounts of solar material into space in the past year or two. One of the most impressive events actually narrowly missed the Earth on July 23-24 last year. </p>
<p>A solar eruption, called a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection">coronal mass ejection</a>, hit the <a href="http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/">STEREO-A</a> spacecraft which was <a href="http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml">located</a> ahead of Earth in its orbit around the sun. You can see video of the ejection <a href="http://spaceweather.com/images2012/23jul12/rcme_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=sufoeus0qmims4cps7ndf428g6">here</a>.</p>
<p>The speed and magnitude of this disturbance were extreme (to say the least). It travelled from the sun’s surface out to the distance of Earth’s orbit (<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-light-years-and-units-for-the-stars-16995">1 AU</a>; astronomical unit, the mean sun-Earth distance) in 19 hours. </p>
<p>Typically, space scientists allow <a href="http://vimeo.com/40636294">two to three days’</a> travel time for coronal mass ejections. The 2012 event - one of the fastest ejections ever measured - was initially estimated to be travelling at 2,500 km/s, almost ten times greater than typical solar wind speeds!</p>
<h2>Storm intensity</h2>
<p>One of the ways space scientists rate the intensity of a particular geomagnetic disturbance on Earth is the <a href="http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/presentmonth/">Dst index</a>. This measures the magnetospheric “<a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/twins-5years.html#.Uei8oUFyGXA">ring current</a>” that encircles the Earth. </p>
<p>The more negative the Dst (expressed in nanotesla; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_(unit%29)">nT</a>, the more intense the storm. </p>
<p>The famous 1859 <a href="http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/lowres-Severe-Space-Weather-FINAL.pdf">Carrington event</a>, which significantly disrupted the telegraph infrastructure across Europe and the United States, was estimated to have been as intense as -850 nT. </p>
<p>In 2003, the <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Services/HalloweenStorms_assessment.pdf">Halloween geomagnetic storms</a> caused all sorts of problems across a wide range of technological applications; they were only half the Carrington event’s intensity.</p>
<p>So far we have found it difficult to properly prepare for a space weather event of Carrington-scale intensity due to a lack of historical data. Instead, we have taken comfort in knowing that an event of this scale is relatively unlikely.</p>
<p>However, the frequency of extremely intense solar disturbances has been put into question by the July 2012 event, as this recent Space Weather <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/swe.20097/abstract">paper</a> points out. </p>
<p>The most significant implication from the study is that had that coronal mass ejection occurred approximately one week prior, Earth would have been in the direct firing line. This would no doubt have spawned many and serious <a href="http://theconversation.com/divert-power-to-shields-the-solar-maximum-is-coming-11228">problems</a> across a number of technologies. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/32974/original/fz9xdhnc-1381724315.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">If a disruption the intensity of the Carrington effect occurred now, we’d have serious technological problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Stanton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Eruptions and disruptions</h2>
<p>If the solar disturbance had hit Earth, its intensity would have been around -500 nT, making it one of the most intense storms of the past century. The resulting geomagnetic storm would have been much worse (-1,182 nT) had it occurred close to an equinox at the most vulnerable time of the day. </p>
<p>If the disturbance had taken place at the most vulnerable time of the day, at the most vulnerable time of the year, it would have been the most intense geomagnetic disturbance in the technological age.</p>
<p>The great advantage of this event having taken place is that the STEREO-A spacecraft, which was <a href="http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission/mission.shtml">designed</a> to provide reliable and long-term solar and solar wind observations, was in direct line-of-sight of this eruption. As a result, STEREO-A collected vitally important solar wind information that we would not have had otherwise. </p>
<p>Many coronal mass ejections happen throughout the solar cycle, but only a select few are directly measured due to the spread-out and sparse locations of our spacecraft and our planet in the solar system.</p>
<p>Operators of technological infrastructure, such as satellites and <a href="https://www.frcc.com/Public%20Awareness/Lists/Announcements/Attachments/105/GMD%20Interim%20Report.pdf">power grids</a>, are always looking for the best way to model the effects of the most severe space weather events. But unfortunately the number of severe events for which we have sufficient data is very limited.</p>
<p>Our ability to use the Carrington event as the “worst-case scenario” is greatly limited by us having very few data from this 19th century event, obviously due to the lack of technology at the time. </p>
<p>But the authors of the Space Weather paper believe that the recent record-breaking July 2012 event, for which we have direct and reliable solar wind measurements, can now be used by these infrastructure operators in their “worst-case scenario” modelling, to see how their infrastructure would cope with such an event.</p>
<p>There is much to be learnt from the July 2012 space weather event. It would be quite a failure for us not to seriously use the data from this “shot across the bow” to better protect ourselves in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Carter receives funding from the Victorian Postdoctoral Research Fellowship program. He is affiliated with the RMIT SPACE Research Centre and the Institute for Scientific Research at Boston College.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Baker is affiliated with the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA and his funding source is the United States National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>A sobering study published this month in Space Weather warns why we need to get better prepared for disruptive space weather events - particularly coronal mass ejections. The current solar maximum - a…Brett Carter, Postdoctoral Researcher in Space Weather and Ionospheric Physics, RMIT UniversityDaniel Baker, Director, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/171362013-08-20T20:25:09Z2013-08-20T20:25:09ZA solar magnetic reversal means there’s no need to flip out – yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29406/original/h8dd9295-1376630678.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How will Earth weather solar storms while the sun flips its magnetic field?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Goddard Photo and Video</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You may have read the sun’s magnetic field is heading for a change in field polarity - meaning it will <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip/">flip upside down</a> - and could have ripple effects throughout the entire solar system. </p>
<p>So what does this mean for us on Earth? To predict its effects, we first need to understand how - and why - this phenomenon occurs.</p>
<p>Well, first of all, the sun itself isn’t tipping - just its magnetic field. The very existence of magnetic fields in the heavens was first demonstrated by American solar astronomer <a href="http://sunearthday.nasa.gov/2006/locations/hale.php">George Ellery Hale</a> in 1908, based on his <a href="http://www.fi.edu/learn/case-files/hale-2863/spectro.html">spectroheliograph</a> observations of <a href="http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml">sunspots</a>, areas of intense magnetic activity on the sun’s surface. </p>
<p>It was later realised that magnetic fields are dotted across the solar surface, collected in “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_tube">flux tubes</a>” ranging in size from the smallest scales we can see up to sunspots many times the diameter of Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29389/original/cyqmnvpt-1376625820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=633&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">White lines show the magnetic field emanating from the sun’s surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the sun as a whole also has a “global” magnetic field, oriented more or less north-south. So we can think of the sun as a large N-S magnet, like our Earth, but with smaller variously (but not randomly) oriented and continually evolving mini-magnets distributed over its <a href="http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/surface.shtml">photosphere</a> (visible surface) and throughout its <a href="http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/corona.shtml">corona</a> (extended atmosphere).</p>
<p>However, unlike our Earth, the sun’s large scale magnetic field flips over on a regular basis, roughly every <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1120sun_flip.html">11 years</a>. (Actually, Earth’s flips too, very irregularly. The last time was <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html">780,000 years ago</a>. But that’s another story.) </p>
<h2>What’s going on?</h2>
<p>Solar magnetic reversals occur close to <a href="http://sunearthday.nasa.gov/2013/solarmax/">solar maximum</a>, when the number of sunspots is near its peak, though it is often a gradual process, taking up to 18 months. </p>
<p>Indeed, as is the case now, one pole often lags the other by some months. Currently, the sun has two positive magnetic poles! </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29391/original/r859ghz2-1376626172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coronal Mass Ejections carry charged particles and magnetic field into space, and if they hit the Earth can cause geomagnetic storms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The reversal will probably be complete within the next three to four months. </p>
<p>If you are puzzled by the idea of a magnet with two poles of the same polarity (which is impossible), it’s not quite that bad. </p>
<p>All the other smaller magnets scattered across the solar surface balance it out; there is always exactly the same amount of positive and negative magnetic flux piercing the photosphere (it’s a fundamental law of physics). </p>
<p>The reversals occur because of a slow migration towards the poles of detritus from the break-up of old opposite-polarity sunspots. This has happened faster in the northern hemisphere than in the south during this cycle, which is why the south lags.</p>
<h2>What will happen to us?</h2>
<p>So, what does this mean for Earth and for the rest of the solar system? The sun’s magnetic field dominates the <a href="http://science.nasa.gov/heliophysics/focus-areas/heliosphere/">heliosphere</a>, the bubble of ionised gas (plasma) formed by the solar wind and enveloping our solar system out to more than 100-times the sun-Earth distance (100 <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/glossary/au.html">Astronomical Units</a>). </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29386/original/tw693gqh-1376621481.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the current sheet in the Sun’s heliosphere extending to Jupiter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The solar wind carries with it magnetic field, and so the sun’s overall north-south polarity is propagated throughout the heliosphere, leaving a wavy “current sheet” separating the two polarities in space. </p>
<p>The heliospheric magnetic field and its current sheet partially protect us from cosmic rays originating out in the galaxy and beyond. When the sun reverses polarity, so does the heliosphere, with some delay. </p>
<p>During the changeover, heliospheric protection against cosmic rays is barely compromised, remaining at a high level typical of solar max. Earth’s own magnetic field continues to shield us too. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the heliosphere’s field reorganisation can enhance the waviness of the current sheet, meaning Earth passes through it many times during its orbit around the sun. </p>
<p>This can provoke “space weather” events such as <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#q14">geomagnetic storms</a> that may have implications for satellites and other technologies, such as radio blackouts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29382/original/93wjrnd4-1376619877.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earth’s magnetic field, in blue, shields the planet from the solar wind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An imperfect universe</h2>
<p>Greek philosopher <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aristotle">Aristotle</a> taught that the heavens are perfect and immutable. This dogma, based more on philosophical predisposition than on observation and data (a practice that has unfortunately come back into fashion in recent years), weighed heavily on Western thought for nearly two millennia. </p>
<p>When the great revolutionary <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei">Galileo Galilei</a> turned his new telescope to the sun in 1612 and saw sunspots - imperfections on the “perfect” orb - the foundations of natural philosophy were shaken to the core.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29390/original/g2dypd7t-1376626085.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A solar flare (the white patch on the sun), and an erupting prominence reaching into space, are features of our active sun, and place the size of Earth in context.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Modern science grew from the rubble. Forevermore, science would be based on experiment and observation.</p>
<p>It is well to remember this central role taken by our mutable and imperfect sun in the intellectual evolution of humanity at this time when our peripatetic star’s magnetic field is flipping upside down. </p>
<p>Mankind has lived through innumerable solar field reversals with little or no effect. The difference now is our reliance on technology, making us more vulnerable to their influence. </p>
<p>However, large <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#.Ug2CkTk7blI">solar storms</a>, associated with <a href="http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/flare.htm">flares</a> and <a href="http://helios.gsfc.nasa.gov/cme.html">coronal mass ejections</a>, are of more practical concern as they <a href="http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/spaceweather.htm">affect Earth-orbiting satellites</a>, telecommunications, electric power grids, and other technologies. </p>
<p>The fact the current solar maximum is historically very weak suggests that damaging events might be less frequent for some years to come, though that is no guarantee the next “killer solar storm” is not just around the corner. </p>
<p>It will certainly come one day. Will we be ready?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You may have read the sun’s magnetic field is heading for a change in field polarity - meaning it will flip upside down - and could have ripple effects throughout the entire solar system. So what does…Paul Cally, Professor of Solar Physics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.