tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/sports-data-34735/articlesSports data – The Conversation2021-04-25T14:09:07Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572032021-04-25T14:09:07Z2021-04-25T14:09:07ZPandemic Moneyball: How COVID-19 has affected baseball odds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395141/original/file-20210414-15-clxu08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C7%2C4644%2C3122&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2020 World Series featured two teams at opposite ends of the salary spectrum: the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays. The richer Dodgers were the winners.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 250px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/ad-auris/pandemic-moneyball--how-covid-19-has-affected-baseball-odds" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The ground-breaking 2004 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/403233/moneyball-by-michael-lewis/9780393324815"><em>Moneyball</em> by Michael Lewis</a> exposed the use of advanced baseball statistics by the Oakland A’s and the team’s general manager, Billy Beane, to excel in the competitive Major League Baseball marketplace. The book resulted in the resurgence of the use of data analytics tools in MLB and then other sports.</p>
<p>I’m a baseball fan, but in my day job I research game theory as it’s applied to financial situations and data analytics. So I was curious to understand the lasting impact of the “Moneyball effect” on baseball. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2018.11.010">My research examined the “arms race” among MLB teams</a> and how they tried to gain a strategic advantage by using proprietary data tools.</p>
<p>The successful implementation of data analytics by the Oakland Athletics to find undervalued players explained why the team made it to the playoffs each year between 2000 and 2003, despite having one of the lowest payrolls in MLB.</p>
<p>Ironically, the loss of this strategic advantage by the A’s is related to the publication of <em>Moneyball</em> — which became a larger cultural phenomenon when <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/">a movie by the same name</a> (starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane) was released in 2011.</p>
<h2>A tool used by all teams now</h2>
<p>Before the book was published in 2004, only five MLB teams had established an analytics department within their organizations. By 2017, all 30 teams were using advanced analytics to assess player performance.</p>
<p><a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/961412-mlb-power-rankings-all-30-mlb-teams-by-market-size">Small-market teams</a> like Oakland lost their competitive advantage as richer teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs added advanced analytics to their toolkits. </p>
<p>It’s one thing to be a Moneyball team; it’s another to be a Moneyball team with money. Not only can the richer large-market teams <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/trevor-bauers-102-million-deal-with-the-dodgers-is-unique-heres-why.html">go after the best players</a>, but they can also <a href="https://grantland.com/the-triangle/andrew-friedman-leaves-tampa-bay-rays-for-los-angeles-dodgers-impact/">poach key front office people</a> from the poorer teams.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Billy Beane talks to one of the Oakland Athletics baseball players" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland Athletics minority owner and executive vice-president Billy Beane, right, talks with players before a playoff baseball game in 2018. When Beane was general manager of the A’s in the late 1990s, he was the first baseball executive to embrace the use of advanced analytics to assess the value of baseball players.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consequently, it’s not an accident the Dodgers have appeared in three of the last five World Series — including their win in 2020. The fact that their opponents last year, the small-market Tampa Bay Rays, even made it to the World Series is nothing short of a miracle.</p>
<h2>The ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’</h2>
<p>One of the problems with baseball’s asymmetric payrolls means teams can be divided into “haves” and “have nots” (with a few franchises falling into a middle group). And those “have nots” now have another issue to deal with: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on baseball revenue.</p>
<p>No spectators were allowed at MLB regular-season games last year and each team has taken <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-fans-return-for-2021-mlb-season-every-teams-opening-day-plan-for-in-person-attendance/">a different approach to fans in the stands</a> this season. But in most cases, teams will limit attendance to allow social distancing among the fans.</p>
<p>While all teams will see a loss of gate revenue because of the pandemic, poorer teams will suffer more. Richer MLB teams have <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/">other sources of income</a> and substantially larger financial resources, enabling them to weather the storm better than the “have nots.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pitcher Trevor Bauer is shown pitching in a game" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers improved their pitching this year by signing one of the top free agents: Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102-million deal makes him one of the the highest-paid players per-year in sports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>MLB teams <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/22/mlb-teams-lost-1-billion-in-2020/?sh=4e038bf017d7">lost US$1 billion in 2020</a>, compared to a profit of $1.5 billion in 2019. <em>Forbes</em> magazine has estimated MLB’s total revenues dropped to $4 billion last year from $10.5 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And the pandemic has also had an impact on a revenue-sharing program that was first established by MLB in 1996 to lessen the economic inequalities between “have” and “have not” teams. The program was suspended last year and is <a href="https://theathletic.com/2430585/2021/03/08/mlb-is-loaning-teams-money-to-fund-2021-revenue-sharing-but-repayment-is-debated/">only happening in a limited capacity this year</a>. </p>
<h2>Dodgers top total payroll</h2>
<p>To better understand the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots,” let’s look at the <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/">2021 MLB payrolls</a>. The Dodgers are at the top with a total payroll of almost US$250 million while Cleveland is at the bottom with at $49.7 million.</p>
<p>The teams that won the World Series in the past five years (the Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Dodgers) are all in the top third of total payroll in 2021. And eight out of the 10 teams that participated in the past five World Series are from the top third of total payroll in 2021 — the only two exceptions are Cleveland in 2016 and the Rays in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph that shows the salary levels of all 30 Major League Baseball teams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This chart shows the World Series champion L.A. Dodgers have a payroll almost twice the league average of US$130 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We already know small-market teams like Oakland no longer have a competitive advantage when it comes to using Moneyball analytics. So do they have any hope of winning it all during another season of pandemic baseball?</p>
<h2>What is the key to winning?</h2>
<p>To under the relationship between team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series, I did an analysis with <a href="https://www.infoworld.com/article/3394399/machine-learning-algorithms-explained.html">machine learning algorithms</a>. These type of algorithms create models that train themselves and learn from their mistakes in an iterative manner and can predict outcomes based on available data.</p>
<p>The analysis showed that a key metric is the payroll of a team’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster">26-man active roster</a> — which is different than total payroll because it excludes salaries of injured, suspended or those no longer playing for the team but still being paid.</p>
<p>My model suggests that teams with an active-roster payroll of less than $50 million — specifically Cleveland ($49 million), Pittsburgh ($40.7 million), Baltimore ($24 million), Tampa Bay ($40 million), Texas ($47 million) and Detroit ($48 million) — have almost no statistical chance of winning the World Series.</p>
<p>Those with a payroll between $50 million and $150 million (teams like Miami, Arizona, Seattle, Oakland, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Boston, White Sox, St. Louis, and Atlanta) have about a five per cent probability of winning it all.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphic that shows the plot of an algorithm that predicts the impact of team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author used machine learning algorithms to analyze how team salaries impact a team’s odds of winning the World Series. The conclusion: Richer teams have better probability of winning, but there’s not much difference between teams with a roster salary of US$150 million and those that are over $200 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teams that are around the $150-million level are still at the same probability of five per cent. This includes San Francisco ($145 million), the Cubs ($145 million), Washington ($146 million) and Houston ($149 million).</p>
<h2>Money only goes so far</h2>
<p>But the model also suggests that once a team hits $150 million, the probability goes to 10 per cent and doesn’t go up even if salaries increase beyond that point.</p>
<p>This means the Dodgers, with a 26-man payroll of $211 million, are statistically no more likely to win the Series again this year than a team like the Mets with $152 million, San Diego with $155 million, Philadelphia with $160 million, the Yankees with $164 million and the Angels with $177 million.</p>
<p>It’s a tough time to be a small-market team in baseball. The Moneyball advantage is gone. COVID-19 has reduced revenue. And without a big payroll, it’s almost impossible to succeed. </p>
<p>What’s happening in baseball, it seems, is no different than what other business sectors are experiencing during the pandemic — the rich get richer and those less fortunate struggle to compete.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramy Elitzur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twenty years ago, a few small-market Major League Baseball teams used advanced analytics as a secret weapon to compete with large-market teams. But the Moneyball effect is gone now.Ramy Elitzur, Associate Professor, Financial Analysis, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1181752019-06-03T20:07:24Z2019-06-03T20:07:24ZThe Blues have to battle the numbers if they’re to make it two-in-a-row in State of Origin<p>The 2019 State of Origin rugby league series kicks off with <a href="https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/05/31/maroons-v-blues-game-one-origin-preview/">game one in Brisbane</a> on Wednesday – and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/state-of-origin-game-1-2019-head-to-head-matchups/news-story/023fa8c177962c5df307f7f422b70d32">bookies and many experts</a> are tipping the New South Wales Blues to win consecutive series for the first time since 2005.</p>
<p>Queensland’s Maroons side had 11 series wins in 12 years. But mainstays of that team – Cameron Smith, Darren Lockyer, Johnathan Thurston, Billy Slater and Greg Inglis – are <a href="https://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/5464542/qld-era-may-never-be-seen-again-walters/">all retired</a> and there is optimism south of the Tweed that in coming years the Blues will reverse recent fortunes.</p>
<p><iframe id="eSerW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eSerW/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But a quick glance at the numbers suggests the Blues will have to buck a few historical trends if they are to retain the shield for the first time in almost a decade and a half.</p>
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Read more:
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<h2>Home sweet home advantage</h2>
<p>As well as the traditional games in the capital cities of New South Wales and Queensland, game two of the 2019 series will be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-15/perth-to-host-2019-state-of-origin-rugby-league-clash/7631410">played in Perth</a> on June 23. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5071%2C3378&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277531/original/file-20190603-69075-1rzx4t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland Maroons player Ben Hunt during team training in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Glenn Hunt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This model of each side having one home game, one away game and one game at a neutral venue has been used 11 times before, always previously with the neutral game in Melbourne. It will be repeated next year too, <a href="https://www.nrl.com/news/2018/02/14/adelaide-to-host-holden-state-of-origin-in-2020/">playing at Adelaide Oval for the first time</a>.</p>
<p>Given the partisan nature of local crowds, it is perhaps unsurprising that both sides have won the majority of their home games (NSW 24 wins from 45, Queensland 35 wins from 55).</p>
<p><iframe id="HMI7F" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HMI7F/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The Blues do have that advantage of winning more of the neutral venue games.</p>
<p>But, looking at the margins of victory, these games at a neutral site have typically been closer. The average margin of victory (around 6.3 points) is lower than for games in Sydney (around 8.1 points) or Brisbane (12.2 points).</p>
<p>Only once has the margin of victory been greater than ten points for games outside the traditional locations, a 14-0 Blues victory at Melbourne’s MCG in game two in 1994.</p>
<h2>First in best dressed</h2>
<p>It is easy to note that the strongest predictor of winning a series is getting off to the best possible start with a win in game one.</p>
<p><iframe id="Dakg9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Dakg9/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Only eight times in the 37 best-of-three-era series has a team lost game one but come back to win the series. Of those eight comebacks, only two were Blues series wins (1994 and 2005).</p>
<p>In most of these years, hosting game one also meant hosting game three, so much of this effect is attributable to simple home advantage.</p>
<h2>Maroons finishing strongly</h2>
<p>Where the record books provide more worrying reading for New South Wales supporters is their rival’s record when it matters most.</p>
<p>If the series is not decided before game three in Sydney in July, then history is even more firmly on the Maroons’ side. The Queenslanders have won the final game in the series more than twice as often as their southern counterparts (11 NSW wins, 2 draws, 24 Queensland wins).</p>
<p><iframe id="04FoU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/04FoU/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>If you exclude dead rubbers – games when the series winner is already decided after game two – the history books are even sweeter reading for Queensland. Of the 19 times that the final game has been a series decider, the Blues have walked away with the shield just four times.</p>
<p>To win the series this year, the Blues will either need to improve on this ugly record in deciders or to win two games out-of-state, which they have managed just four times in 27 attempts.</p>
<p>After a successful debut series as coach in 2018, NSW coach Brad Fittler will be looking to overcome Kevin Walters’ Queenslanders again this year. If he does so, he will be breaking new ground for a Blues coach. </p>
<p>Of the eight previous coaches who faced the same Maroons coach for their first two series, none of them managed to walk away with two series victories.</p>
<h2>Hail the returning hero?</h2>
<p>One of the most intriguing storylines hanging over this year’s series is currently nothing but a rumour. Despite retiring from the Origin arena two years ago, stories have circulated that <a href="https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/05/07/why-smiths-fairy-tale-origin-comeback-should-become-reality/">longtime captain Cameron Smith may consider making himself available for selection</a> once more.</p>
<p>Such dramatic returns are not without precedent and, in both cases, have resulted in series wins for their respective sides.</p>
<p>After losing 2005 game one, New South Wales recalled Andrew Johns despite his <a href="https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/maroons-origin-masterstroke-revisited/3447014/">having barely played at all in the previous 18 months</a>. He took man-of-the-match honours in game two en route to a 2-1 series win.</p>
<p>Even more dramatically in 2001, Queensland sneaked 35-year-old former Brisbane Bronco <a href="https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/maroons-origin-masterstroke-revisited/3447014/">Allan Langer back into the country</a> after he had first <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/allan-langer-retires-again-20021203-gdfwmz.html">retired from the sport</a>, then gone to Europe to play in Super League with Warrington Wolves. </p>
<p>Langer’s vintage performance helped a Queensland side that has been whitewashed 3-0 a year before to clinch a decisive game three victory.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Queenslander!</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Don’t believe the hype</h2>
<p>Given the once-in-a-generation talent Queensland has lost in recent years, it is not surprising the Maroons enter the series as underdogs.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-and-complicated-history-of-aboriginal-involvement-in-football-117669">The long and complicated history of Aboriginal involvement in football</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>But the favoured Blues must be keenly aware that Australian rugby league’s showpiece and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/most-watched-programs-of-2018-revealed-20181130-p50jdk.html">television ratings behemoth</a> has thrown up many twists and turns over the years.</p>
<p>A quick glance at the record books might provide more sobering reading for the Blues than some <a href="https://www.theroar.com.au/rugby-league/longform/state-of-origin-great-shift-new-south-wales-ended-queenslands-dynasty-start-empire-604373/">recent sports journalism</a> or bookmakers’ odds.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Andrew Ferguson of <a href="https://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/">Rugby League Project</a>, rugby league researcher and historian, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118175/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Woodcock is an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS)</span></em></p>A look at the past results shows there is some advantage to a team playing at home and winning the first game in State of Origin.Stephen Woodcock, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/781862017-06-06T19:21:56Z2017-06-06T19:21:56ZOur ‘sporting nation’ is a myth, so how do we get youngsters back on the field?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171965/original/file-20170602-25700-1e6r1fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Neglected and sub-par facilities are one of many barriers to youth participation in sport.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tupwanders/4090730864/">tup wanders</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sport is seen as a key part of Australia’s identity. Yet woefully rundown facilities and outdated sport offerings are creating significant barriers to youth participation. </p>
<p>In partnership with the <a href="http://yourlocalclub.com.au/who-we-are/our-stories/">Cooks River Sporting Alliance</a>, Canterbury Hurlstone Park RSL Club, and 12 public and private schools from Sydney’s inner west, we’ll be working with youth to co-design an innovative program to reverse the decline in youth participation in sport. </p>
<p>Our program, Designing in Youth, will feature new sport offerings, advertising materials and redesigned facilities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3315587/">Research</a> shows that environmental design works best when it considers multiple factors. Thus, the first phase of our project is a survey to identify psychological and social barriers alongside environmental drivers of youth sport participation. </p>
<h2>Barriers to participation</h2>
<p>Australia’s sporting landscape offers more barriers than motivations for youth, and the effects are obvious. The World Health Organisation recommends 60 minutes of physical activity every day. In Australia, only <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/health-pubhlth-strateg-active-evidence.htm">one in ten</a> young adults do this. </p>
<p>Despite many programs to increase youth physical activity and sport participation, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18091006">results have been inconsistent</a>. Perhaps these programs’ failure to have a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3871410/">lasting impact</a> on young people’s exercise habits is due to their <a href="http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/107/6/1459">highly structured</a> nature and <a href="http://docslide.net/documents/in-focuspositive-coaching-youth-sports-hold-a-lesson-for-leaders.html">lack of youth leadership</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://docslide.net/documents/in-focuspositive-coaching-youth-sports-hold-a-lesson-for-leaders.html">Youth report</a> their reasons for playing sport include enjoyment, development of physical and motor skills, self-esteem and peer interaction, among other factors. We hypothesise that better interventions emphasise the fun factor and involve peer-led, unstructured play. This should produce long-lasting improvements in attitudes to physical activity. </p>
<p>Most organised sports promote practice and winning over play, are primarily coach-led and do not encourage the development of physical and motor skills. These <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1356336X14555294">factors are barriers</a> to youth sport participation. </p>
<p>This is partly due to poorly designed facilities. Few facilities promote both social and competitive participation, focus on peer leadership, or offer a wide variety of sporting activities in one place. </p>
<h2>Neglect of grassroots sport</h2>
<p>In New South Wales, the divide between elite and grassroots sport is huge. Most youth participation is in grassroots sport, but the funding <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2012-2013/SportFunding#_Toc360096410">mostly goes into elite clubs</a>. </p>
<p>Sports fields for grassroots clubs are commonly placed as afterthoughts, typically on leftover land. In NSW, this can be seen along Cooks River in the suburbs of Hurlstone Park and Canterbury. Here, sporting events and practices are regularly cancelled due to flooding.</p>
<p>To make things worse, many fields are not designed for sport and poorly maintained. The uneven, pitted surfaces are bad for play.</p>
<p>At these fields, bathroom blocks are rare, dirty and often falling apart. There are usually no changing rooms or showers. Many fields have few, if any, benches to sit on, and no access to food and drink vendors. </p>
<p>In addition, facilities are usually designed for one sport only. This leaves parents or siblings with nothing else to do while they wait.</p>
<p>In other countries, such as the Netherlands, facilities for local sport clubs <a href="http://www.cladglobal.com/CLADnews/architecture-design/Feyenoord-football-stadium-design-architecture-OMA-David-Gianotten-Eredivise-Netherlands-regeneration/326277?source=news">function as community centres</a>. Their fields are designed for various sporting activities and have playgrounds and hospitality centres nearby. </p>
<h2>Why does participation matter?</h2>
<p>The decline in sport participation may be a factor in the rise of poor mental health. Despite decreases in substance abuse such as smoking and binge drinking, rates of self-harm, depression, anxiety and suicide are <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/ministers/publishing.nsf/Content/health-mediarel-yr2015-ley096.htm">on the rise</a> among Australian youth. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.who.int/dietphysicalactivity/factsheet_young_people/en/">Many studies</a> have found habitual sport activities are an effective way to improve mental health. Other health benefits include reductions in obesity and blood pressure. The 2010 report, <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/aust_sport_path/%24file/aust_sport_path.pdf">Australian Sport: Pathway to Success</a>, recognised boosting youth participation in sport and supporting grassroots clubs as important for improving both population health and national sporting success. </p>
<p>Despite all this evidence of many benefits, studies have charted a <a href="http://www.who.int/whr/2002/en/">steady global decline in sport participation</a> between the ages of 11 and 16. Participation is particularly low among <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/09654280010343555">older girls</a>. </p>
<p>Past studies have <a href="http://www.who.int/whr/2002/en/">identified some barriers</a> to participation. These include <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/09654280010343555">reduced parental influence</a> on choice of activity, boredom with the available sports, and <a href="http://www.sportandrecreationspatial.com.au/resources/2014%20JSAMS%20Transition3..pdf">time challenges</a> created by increased academic workload.</p>
<p>Other possible barriers such as poorly designed and maintained public parks have not been well studied. It’s probable that the poor condition of facilities and the lack of variety in sports and other non-sporting amenities on offer also discourage participation.</p>
<h2>A new approach to involving youth</h2>
<p>If we’re to increase youth participation, we need to include their opinions in the redesign process to ensure being involved in sport appeals to them.</p>
<p>Most programs worldwide have focused only on promoting an overall increase in physical activity. But regular and vigorous sports participation has greater long-term benefits, including improvements in <a href="https://www.dsr.wa.gov.au/docs/default-source/file-support-and-advice/file-research-and-policies/brain-boost-how-sport-and-physical-activity-enhance-children%27s-learning.pdf?sfvrsn=4">children’s learning</a>. </p>
<p>We hope Designing in Youth will help create a whole new landscape for sport in Sydney’s inner west. If successful, our communities and our use of public outdoor space will change for the better. </p>
<p>We should see youth outside again. And maybe, just maybe, we will restore our status as a sporting nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78186/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Ascher Barnstone receives funding from Canterbury Hurlstone Park RSL. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona Brooks receives funding from Hurlstone Park and Canterbury RSL
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Job Fransen receives funding from Hurlstone Park/Canterbury RSL</span></em></p>The first step in reviving a lost sporting culture is to involve young Australians in working out why sport has lost its appeal and how to reverse the decline in youth participation.Deborah Ascher Barnstone, Professor, Associate Head of School, School of Architecture, University of Technology SydneyFiona Brooks, Professor of Public Health, Associate Dean Research, University of Technology SydneyJob Fransen, Lecturer in Skill Acquisition and Motor Control, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/709982017-01-12T02:58:05Z2017-01-12T02:58:05ZShorter or longer tennis matches: what’s the right balance?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152205/original/image-20170110-23473-gj7409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C132%2C3043%2C1967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Fast4 match format was used for this year's Hopman Cup mixed doubles events.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first week of the 2017 tennis season saw the much-anticipated returns of several of the sport’s biggest names, such as Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams.</p>
<p>Another debut that received less attention was the introduction of the Fast4 match format at <a href="http://hopmancup.com/news/2016/12/26/fast4-mastercard-hopman-cup-mixed-doubles">this year’s Hopman Cup</a>, where it was used for the mixed doubles events. This was the format’s first appearance at an International Tennis Federation (ITF)-sanctioned event.</p>
<p>Fast4 is specifically designed to make matches quicker and more exciting. The format gets its name from the <a href="http://www.tennisworld.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Fast4-Tournament-Scoring-Format.pdf">four rules</a> that distinguish it most from the way a standard tennis set is played: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>no lets; </p></li>
<li><p>no advantage points; </p></li>
<li><p>the first to four points wins the game; and </p></li>
<li><p>the first to four games wins the set, with a first-to-five-point tiebreak played if the score reaches three-games-all in a set. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Tennis Australia introduced the format and trialled it at club level throughout Australia in 2014. Could the broader adoption of Fast4 at the professional level prevent the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-tennis-marathons-become-too-much-of-a-good-thing-53388">rising trends in match durations</a>? </p>
<h2>How could it shorten match length?</h2>
<p>Fast4’s official debut comes at a time when tennis’ governing bodies are expressing a growing interest in shorter match formats in the professional game. </p>
<p>In addition to Fast4’s emergence, Women’s Tennis Association CEO Steve Simon <a href="http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Tennis_Interviews/36861/steve-simon-reveals-there-could-be-historical-changes-in-the-wta/">has hinted</a> at the possibility of “progressive” change in match formats on the women’s tour in the near future. </p>
<p>For a sport that hasn’t had a significant change in singles format since the ITF adopted the tiebreaker in 1971, tennis’ governing bodies are under growing pressure to innovate matchplay and curb the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-tennis-marathons-become-too-much-of-a-good-thing-53388">trends in match lengths</a> that have added an average of 44 hours to the length of singles play at Grand Slam matches in the past decade.</p>
<p>In the recent era, tennis has seen a major shift in the style of play. It has transitioned from the fast-paced serve-and-volley play of the 1980s and 1990s to baseline play, where rallies are longer and fewer points are played at the net. This change, combined with the growing depth of the tour, has led to increased match lengths.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isner%E2%80%93Mahut_match_at_the_2010_Wimbledon_Championships">11-hour John Isner-Nicolas Mahut</a> marathon at Wimbledon in 2010 was an outlier in any era, but much less so today than 20 years ago.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The final points of the 11-hour Isner-Mahut match from 2010.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of the 13 mixed doubles matches played at this year’s Hopman Cup, the average match length was 45 minutes. The longest match was still a speedy 74 minutes. But this is too small and select a group of matches to infer how Fast4 would alter the tour if used more broadly in singles and doubles events.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I in Tennis Australia’s Game Insight Group have developed statistical models to understand precisely how alternative match formats, like Fast4, would impact the sport. </p>
<p>Our estimates show the average best-of-three-set Fast4 singles match would last less than 60 minutes. This would make it 30 minutes shorter than the average for a standard best-of-three match and 100 minutes shorter than the average best-of-five match. The best-of-three Fast4 format would also make the chance of a match duration of more than 90 minutes statistically improbable. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152208/original/image-20170110-9899-10tzcfl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=850&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Could it make tennis more unpredictable?</h2>
<p>Recent discussions of new formats have focused almost exclusively on how they could change the duration of play. This has overlooked a critical aspect of a format’s impact: how it might change the uncertainty involved in match outcomes. </p>
<p>When players have to do less to win, it becomes easier for the underdog to hit a decisive lucky streak.</p>
<p>The best-of-five format gives more consistent results than the shorter, best-of-three formats. Our analysis shows a stronger opponent is 50% more likely to be upset in a best-of-three match than a best-of-five match. </p>
<p>This is already a massive difference. But it pales in comparison to the upset frequency with Fast4, which would cause a more than two-fold increase in the likelihood that the better player would lose the match.</p>
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<p>But would it necessarily be a bad thing if luck became a greater factor in professional tennis? </p>
<p>Wide adoption of shorter, less-predictable matches would make it more difficult for the stars of the game to maintain their consistency and for rivalries at the top to flourish. However, quicker matches would make every point more exciting, help fans engage in more matches and introducing them to more players than traditional formats. </p>
<p>When considering the future of match formats in tennis, governing bodies will have to weigh these pros and cons to determine the balance between <em>change</em> and <em>tradition</em> that will be optimal for the sport. </p>
<p>Next week’s Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the season, has contributed some of tennis’ longest matches in recent years. If that trend continues, the sport’s stakeholders may find the time they have to grapple with the question of new match formats is running out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Kovalchik is a data scientist at Tennis Australia. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Tennis Australia.</span></em></p>Could the broader adoption of the Fast4 tennis format at the professional level prevent the rising trends in match durations, and make the sport more unpredictable?Stephanie Kovalchik, Research Fellow, Institute of Sport, Exercise and Active Living, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.