tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/suburbs-14300/articlesSuburbs – The Conversation2024-02-20T20:05:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230712024-02-20T20:05:23Z2024-02-20T20:05:23ZCanada is a suburban nation because of post-Second World War government policy<p>Canada is a suburban nation, not only because of consumer preferences, but also because of federal government policy in the years following the Second World War.</p>
<p>Most post-war population growth in Canada was in the suburbs, with two-thirds of people living there in 2021, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.24908/32559">my research team’s analysis of the latest census</a>. </p>
<p>But how did Canada become a suburban nation so quickly in the post-war era? </p>
<p>To answer that question, our team spent five years in national archives exploring many thousands of files, photographs, drawings, maps and plans. </p>
<h2>No jurisdiction</h2>
<p>In the years following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning. </p>
<p>Canada’s post-war policies on urbanism were first outlined in an obscure 1944 government document known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02665433.2023.2296922">Curtis Report</a>. This report was a critical turning point for major changes in housing and community planning, setting Canada on a different course than the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/veterans-land-act">A million returning veterans</a> created a housing crisis for a country of only 11 million people, perhaps more serious than the housing shortage Canada is currently experiencing. The Curtis Report proposed a bold strategy to build a million small, affordable homes in planned communities. It was bold because Canada only had a handful of community planners and the home-building industry had collapsed in the Depression. </p>
<p>The federal government did have some jurisdiction over banking and finance, and quickly developed new financial tools that allowed many veterans to buy a small home. </p>
<p>Before the war, many houses were self-built, or financed with short-term notes similar to car loans. Thousands of Canadian families lost their homes in the Depression when they could not repay these loans. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canada-mortgage-and-housing-corporation">In 1946, the federal government established the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)</a> to insure a new form of 25-year, low-interest loan for veterans. The mortgages were soon extended to other families that were financially qualified.</p>
<h2>Relevance today</h2>
<p>Some other tools used from 1944-1959 are relevant in today’s housing crisis.</p>
<p>For example, Canadians had many good designs for small homes to choose from because the federal government’s Wartime Housing Limited organization experimented with minimum-sized homes for workers in suburban war-industry factories. </p>
<p>CMHC completed Wartime Housing Ltd. projects and created new designs for affordable small homes, such as the familiar 1.5-storey “Cape Cod” houses that were built across the country. </p>
<p>CMHC published these house designs as widely distributed pattern books. Families could choose a small home design from the book and, for a nominal sum, order blueprints for estimates from builders.</p>
<p>Many contemporary Canadian homebuilders appear to have forgotten how to build small houses for the entry-level market, opting for so-called “monster homes.” So the federal government’s December 2023 <a href="https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/politics/ottawa-to-launch-pre-approved-home-design-catalogue-bring-back-post-war-effort/article_627ffa49-f473-5f8c-8b14-945ae6bdf3bf.html">proposal to reintroduce small-home pattern books</a> is a welcome one. </p>
<p>The CMHC also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2023.2255150">influenced suburban community design preferences</a> by developing hundreds of neighbourhoods, several new towns and regulating private builders. CMHC opposed the grid subdivisions from the pre-war period and promoted modernist ideas about neighbourhood units composed of crescents and culs-de-sac centred around elementary schools. </p>
<h2>Automobile-dependent</h2>
<p>It also built neighbourhoods for federal agencies across the country, including an entire “<a href="https://doi.org/10.7202/1098366ar">model town</a>” in Oromocto, N.B., for the Department of Defence. </p>
<p>The federal government used its spending power to influence the design of these new neighbourhoods. To receive infrastructure funding in a <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2021/sixteen-projects-showcase-clts-land-assembly-solutions">Federal-Provincial Land Assembly</a>, towns had to accept CMHC’s neighbourhood design, often the first non-grid subdivision in their municipality. </p>
<p>Similarly, private developers who wanted CMHC’s valuable mortgage insurance were required to submit their subdivisions to the federal agency for approval and follow their site-planning standards. </p>
<p>As a result, Canada became a suburban nation with lots of sprawl, but it is <em>planned sprawl</em>, following principles demonstrated across Canada by the federal government. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15385132231222853">new planning powers</a> locked in vast areas of single-family homes with zoning rules that resisted any change. Most of these older Canadian suburbs simply don’t function very well for people who are too young, too old or too poor to own and operate an automobile. </p>
<h2>Outdated idea</h2>
<p>Our research shows that <a href="https://www.canadiansuburbs.ca/interactive-map/">Canadian mass suburbanization</a> was directed by public policy and its infrastructure was heavily subsidized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the authors of the Curtis Report couldn’t foresee the difficult environmental, social and financial consequences of mass suburbanization in 1944. </p>
<p>While single detached homes and automobiles seemed like desirable options 80 years ago, it proved physically impossible, too expensive and socially inequitable to build a large metropolis using only these tools. </p>
<p>With the benefit of hindsight, the federal government is once again using its spending power in its new <a href="https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sf/project/cmhc/pdfs/content/en/housing-action-plans-guide-for-municipalities.pdf">Housing Action Plan</a> to encourage municipalities to abandon single-family zoning and promote more flexible tools for planning 21st century communities. </p>
<p>It should consider similar conditions for its much larger transportation and utilities infrastructure programs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L.A. Gordon received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through Insight Grant 435-2018-0378. He chairs the Research Committee for the Council for Canadian Urbanism.</span></em></p>Following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning.David L.A. Gordon, Professor, School of Urban and Regional Planning; Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194742024-01-07T12:34:38Z2024-01-07T12:34:38ZNeighbourhood amenities may have helped youth mental health and stress early in the pandemic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567975/original/file-20240105-25-yskfll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=245%2C1003%2C3621%2C1984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Researchers investigated how the availability of neighbourhood amenities may have contributed to changes in youth mental health and stress levels during the first six months of the pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash/Paul Hanaoka)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/neighbourhood-amenities-may-have-helped-youth-mental-health-and-stress-early-in-the-pandemic" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, youth as a population group <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210201/dq210201b-eng.htm">reported some of the largest declines in their mental health</a> compared to other age groups in Canada. </p>
<p>Research on youth mental health during the pandemic has focused on <a href="https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/full/10.1139/facets-2021-0096">poor academic engagement</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0080">loss of peer networks</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30109-7">missed milestone events</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13034-023-00653-4">challenging summer employment experiences</a>. Yet little is known about how the places where young people lived played a role in changes to their mental health during the pandemic.</p>
<p>From walking in a park to ordering takeout food, there was not much to do out in public during the early months of the pandemic. Youth were attending school remotely and no longer participating in organized sports and indoor recreation. </p>
<p>For many, that meant their daily activities outside the home often consisted of what could be reached within walking distance of where they lived. Parks and food-related retail became the main places for physically distanced social interactions. They became a break in the routines of remote school, activities and virtual social networks available at home.</p>
<h2>Neighbourhood amenities</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23748834.2023.2282850">Our study</a> included Canadian youth between the ages of 13 and 19 in London, Ont. We investigated how the availability of neighbourhood amenities may have contributed to positive or negative changes in mental health — interpreted as their own perception of their mood and outlook on life — and stress levels during the first six months of the pandemic.</p>
<p>Amenities included parks, food outlets and convenience stores in close proximity to home.</p>
<p>We investigated whether these amenities could have protected against declines in mental health and increases in stress levels, and also if youth living in suburban neighbourhoods had different perceptions of mental health and stress levels than those living in urban ones.</p>
<h2>The missing role of parks</h2>
<p>Surprisingly, the availability of parks near the home had no significant impact on mental health and stress levels of youth. This finding runs counter to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13148-2">evidence that suggests these places were crucial to supporting well-being</a> during the pandemic. </p>
<p>Given the pre-pandemic challenges of <a href="https://doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp.40.4.02">engaging young people in using their local parks</a>, these places may have not played as substantial a role in supporting better mental health and lowering stress levels for youth compared to other neighbourhood amenities.</p>
<h2>Youth experiences in urban neighbourhoods</h2>
<p>For youth in urban neighbourhoods, having more fast-food outlets available near young people’s homes resulted in lower levels of stress, but worse declines in mental health. When coupled with the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23748834.2023.2282850">observed decline in eating habits</a>, urban youth were almost seven times more likely to report worse mental health. </p>
<p>While the places near young people’s homes can make a difference to their mental health, we found that the impact is greater on their stress levels. </p>
<p>It may be that food-based amenities in urban neighbourhoods provided places for young people to relieve their stress and try to cope with declines in their mental health by eating fast-food and convenience-store snacks and socializing.</p>
<h2>Youth experiences in suburban neighbourhoods</h2>
<p>Youth in suburban neighbourhoods were more likely to report changes (both improvements and declines) to their mental health and stress levels. They also had a greater availability of food outlets near them compared to urban youth. In particular, having more convenience stores near the home was associated with more drastic changes to mental health and higher stress levels. </p>
<p>In addition, youth residing in suburban neighbourhoods who reported a decline in their physical activity levels were also at nearly three times the risk of having worsened mental health than their peers who reported their physical activity levels had not changed since the pandemic. </p>
<p>Overall, boys were substantially less likely than girls to have improved mental health during the study period, and this was especially true for those residing in suburban areas.</p>
<p>One possible reason for this trend could be that boys are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.03.015">more likely to play organized sports</a> than girls, which are often delivered by schools as extracurricular activities. In addition, boys tend to have less <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14742837.2021.2011189">extensive social networks</a> on digital platforms outside of their school than girls. </p>
<p>The loss of opportunities for physical activity and transition away from in-person social networks at schools may have created feelings of isolation and loneliness for boys.</p>
<h2>The role of neighbourhood amenities</h2>
<p>The first six months of the pandemic revealed the importance of neighbourhood amenities in protecting against declines in mental health and reducing stress levels. </p>
<p>Parks may have been a helpful feature for other population groups, but we found their role was limited for youth in terms of mental health and stress. Planners and landscape architects can reflect on how these places could be changed to be more attractive to youth, thereby ensuring they receive the same benefits from them as younger and older groups. </p>
<p>In addition, it is important to consider that the experiences of youth living in suburban and urban neighbourhoods may differ. This highlights the need to include youth perspectives in the planning of public spaces that contribute to healthy and thriving communities. </p>
<p>The pandemic exposed long-standing issues in how youth can access amenities in their community, and how to best meet their needs in Canadian communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Wray receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Sport Canada. He is President of the Town and Gown Association of Ontario. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kendra Nelson Ferguson was provided with funding through a trainee award from the Children’s Health
Research Institute, funded by the Children’s Health Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Martin, Jamie Seabrook, Jason Gilliland, and Stephanie Coen do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neighbourhood features may have helped youth cope with the mental health impact of pandemic restrictions. Parks didn’t play much of a role but food amenities and the suburbs did.Alexander Wray, PhD Candidate in Geography, Western UniversityGina Martin, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Health Disciplines, Athabasca UniversityJamie Seabrook, Chair and Professor, School of Food and Nutritional Sciences, Brescia University College, Adjunct Research Professor, Paediatrics, Adjunct Professor, Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Western UniversityJason Gilliland, Professor, Director, Urban Development Program, Western UniversityKendra Nelson Ferguson, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Faculty of Social Sciences, Western UniversityStephanie Coen, Associate professor, School of Geography, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141382023-09-22T00:59:08Z2023-09-22T00:59:08ZDoug Ford reverses Greenbelt plans: Construction would never have provided affordable housing<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">reversal of his government’s decision to allow developers to construct residential properties on parts of Ontario’s Greenbelt</a>. While this is a positive outcome for an ongoing saga, let’s be clear: paving Ontario’s Greenbelt was never actually about providing affordable housing. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Eft5FOlUZmg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces a reversal of his government’s plans to allow housing development on parts of the Greenbelt on Sept. 21 in Niagara Falls, Ont.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sure, there would have been houses where farms once stood, adding to the province’s overall supply. While housing experts would agree that our housing supply needs to grow as our population grows, we also need to ask questions: What kind of housing do we need? For whom? And where? </p>
<p>Once we expand the housing debate beyond a need to build, it becomes clear that building on the Greenbelt is neither necessary, nor a solution.</p>
<h2>More doesn’t necessarily mean affordable</h2>
<p>First, much of the housing that gets built on fringes of our urban regions is not in any way affordable. While <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-toronto-area-lot-sizes-continue-to-shrink/">suburban plot sizes are smaller</a> than in the 1960s, houses have become bigger, meaning they are not cheap to buy, even in more modest developments. </p>
<p>But it’s not just new subdivisions that get built when rural land is turned into houses. Beyond Brampton, towards Guelph and Waterloo Region, there are enormous mansions on multi-acre lots that most families would struggle to afford. These huge properties are becoming typical in expansion of the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p>Second, while some housing in the suburbs might be cheaper than downtown, the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/commuting-costs-eat-up-house-savings-in-many-gta-communities-study-finds/article_0845a9ca-d99e-5727-8d60-eb5b370bc1cc.html">extra commuting costs of living far from jobs</a> adds to a household’s expenses and negates much of the cost-saving of buying a less expensive house further away. This kind of housing policy locks generations of Ontarians into costly car-dependency; it also costs the government more to maintain and expand highway infrastructure to meet this suburban growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="aerial view of a suburban neighbourhood bordered by farmland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of providing and servicing infrastructure to new suburban developments is much higher than for existing urban areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Related to this, it costs much more for municipalities to service these new communities compared to housing built within existing urban areas. This is not just the initial costs of <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/03/05/sprawl-costs-the-public-more-than-twice-as-much-as-compact-development">preparing and providing services</a> (water, electricity, roads) to new subdivisions — <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26150800">annual operating costs to service sprawling neighbourhoods on the edges of cities is much higher than denser and more central neighbourhoods</a>. Someone has to pay for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/urban-expansion-costs-menard-memo-1.6193429">these extra costs</a>, either through higher property taxes or poorer services.</p>
<p>Fourth, there are many sites already zoned for new subdivisions. While some are being developed, others are simply being held by developers until the time is right to maximize their profits. In other words, there’s already plenty of land, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-caledon-mzo-greenbelt-1.6946441">in places such as Caledon</a>, where new population growth can be accommodated.</p>
<p>Finally, several <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/mapping-hamilton-s-vacant-spaces-helps-paint-a-picture-for-the-future/article_b7e510a3-6d13-5667-8a7f-259efc4fdce5.html">studies</a> have pointed out that there is more than enough room <a href="https://www.ssho.ca/">within the existing urban footprint</a> to accommodate expected population growth. It requires denser, smarter and more creative approaches, but there is <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/building-a-denser-inclusive-hamilton/article_5654dbf2-c677-5783-bc37-f01007e63f74.html">plenty of land to develop and redevelop</a> within our cities. This removes the need to destroy precious farmland and other natural areas that are vital to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115763">our health, economy, food supply and well being</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/southern-ontario-housing-farmland/">Southern Ontario needs a lot more housing</a>. But it needs genuinely affordable housing for low- moderate- and middle-income households. This housing supply rarely, if ever, gets built when farmland is lost.</p>
<h2>Solving the housing crisis</h2>
<p>Expanding our urban areas into the Greenbelt will not solve the housing crisis. So, what would a provincial policy that was genuinely focused on making housing more affordable look like?</p>
<p>To start, it would focus not just on adding new supply, but ensuring that existing housing remains affordable. Thousands of apartments that were affordable to low- and moderate-income households <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Updated-Analysis-on-Housing-Erosion-from-2021-Census-Steve-Pomeroy.pdf">have been lost to processes such as renoviction and demoviction</a>.</p>
<p>The most important aspect to help keep existing housing affordable is <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520386228/shaking-up-the-city">rent control</a>. But one of Ford’s first acts as premier was to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/the-ford-government-removed-rent-control-on-new-units-a-year-later-tenants-are-reporting/article_aee5f429-cba9-5f07-a7ac-1387a7a59730.html">abolish rent control on any new unit first occupied on or after Nov. 15, 2018</a>. That means that tenants who live in the thousands of condo towers that have been popping up since then can be subject to <a href="https://nowtoronto.com/news/toronto-sisters-fight-for-rent-control-after-7000-monthly-rent-increase/">whatever kind of rent increase</a> their landlords want to charge.</p>
<p>Tenants who reside in buildings first occupied prior to this still enjoy some degree of rent control. But the previous Progressive Conservative government, under Mike Harris, <a href="https://doi.org/10.60082/0829-3929.1059">also got rid of vacancy control</a>, meaning that when a tenant leaves, landlords can raise the rent to whatever they like. This not only creates a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.04.011">huge incentive</a> for landlords to evict sitting tenants, but has also led to an erosion of the housing supply that is affordable to tenants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="four cranes and buildings under construction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The condo boom in Ontario has not translated into the availability of affordable housing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of policy</h2>
<p>How can the provincial government help shape the kind of new supply that we need? The provincial government has taken some initiative to <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/more-homes-built-faster">permit up to four units on residential plots of land previously zoned only for one single family home</a>. However, the evidence is mixed as to whether this <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/08/15/what-really-created-minneapolis-apartment-boom">produces this kind of housing</a> (at the appropriate price) that households need.</p>
<p>We need to think differently about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/publicly-owned-land-should-be-used-for-affordable-housing-not-sold-to-private-developers-198654">public land</a> that is owned by everyone in Ontario. We used to build genuinely affordable housing on public land; the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/advmoderncity2016/why-torontos-st-lawrence-neighbourhood-is-a-model-for-affordable-housing/article35872718/">St. Lawrence neighbourhood</a> in downtown Toronto remains the <a href="https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/127154/1/Hulchanski%201990%20Planning%20the%20St%20Lawrence%20Neighbourhood%20-%20Chap%203%20-%20Learning%20from%20St%20Lawrence.pdf">gold standard</a> of how to build housing that meets the needs of communities.</p>
<p>Today, all levels of government, and many other public sector agencies, own land throughout the province. When this land is surplus, it is usually sold on the open market to the highest bidder. The Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force recommended that <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/housing-affordability-task-force-report">all future government land sales have a 20 per cent affordable housing requirement</a>, although this was not taken up.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/publicly-owned-land-should-be-used-for-affordable-housing-not-sold-to-private-developers-198654">Publicly owned land should be used for affordable housing, not sold to private developers</a>
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<p>Instead, there have been several high profile sales of Ontario government land that have resulted in no affordable housing, including a parking lot at the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/provincial-land-transit-hub-private-developer-sale-1.6330555">Port Credit GO station in Mississauga</a>, which was sold to a private developer for $64.5 million with no provisions for any affordable housing.</p>
<p>Land that Metrolinx has acquired for the Ontario Line will also be <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/metrolinx-land-sold-developers-affordable-housing-1.6817447">sold on the open market to the highest bidder</a>, with no requirements for any affordable or non-market housing.</p>
<p>This land should be kept in public ownership to build the kind of housing that the market is unwilling or unable to build. Paving over the Greenbelt was never necessary to meet our need for affordable housing. </p>
<p>A housing policy based on Greenbelt expansion has rightly been tossed aside. Now it’s time for the provincial government to step up and develop housing policies that will actually make a difference and get to the heart of why housing is so expensive. Fortunately, this isn’t rocket science and many of the solutions already exist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Doucet receives funding from SSHRC and the Canada Research Chairs program. </span></em></p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s plan to allow developers to build projects on parts of the Greenbelt was under the auspices of providing additional housing. But it would never have been affordable.Brian Doucet, Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Social Inclusion, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065612023-08-01T12:26:31Z2023-08-01T12:26:31ZFrom Chinatowns to ethnoburbs and beyond, where Chinese people settle reflects changing wealth levels and political climates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539837/original/file-20230727-25-lyreav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">San Francisco has the oldest and largest Chinatown in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NewChinatown/1d94fd84eccd46e7bf0deccf90b93f77">Eric Risberg/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The origins, demographics and settlement patterns of the <a href="https://en.unesco.org/courier/2021-4/overseas-chinese-long-history">approximately 60 million people</a> worldwide who make up the Chinese diaspora, including immigrants and their descendants, are becoming increasingly diverse. Illustrating this diversity are two mass shootings during the 2023 Lunar New Year in California’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/monterey-park-a-pioneering-asian-american-suburb-shaken-by-the-tragedy-of-a-mass-shooting-198373">Monterey Park</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/29/1152389441/half-moon-bay-shooting-motive-repair-bill">Half Moon Bay</a>, communities that include Chinese immigrants ranging from middle- to upper-middle-class residents to farmworkers.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YX2aPagAAAAJ&hl=en">are researchers</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UijrqwIAAAAJ&hl=en">who study</a> international migration. One of us <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">coined the term “ethnoburb</a>” to describe suburban communities that have mixed racial and socioeconomic groups.</p>
<p>Ethnoburbs defy the traditional assumption that Chinese immigrants arrive poor and have to settle in urban Chinatowns before earning enough money to move to the suburbs. Instead, educated and wealthy Chinese immigrants arriving in the past few decades have settled in upper middle- to upper-class neighborhoods. Meanwhile, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy061">Chinese immigrants working low-wage jobs</a> have increasingly settled in rural areas and cities that aren’t considered gateways to the U.S. And <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt16nzfbd">Chinese restaurateurs</a> are scattered across urban and rural areas in many countries. </p>
<p>The evolution of these communities involves a two-way integration process, with newer and older generations of immigrants, as well as long-term non-Chinese residents, adjusting to one another. Shifting Chinese immigrant settlement patterns reflect the changing profile of Chinese immigrants and the effects of globalization and geopolitics.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">About half of the victims of the January 2023 Monterey Park and Half Moon Bay shootings in California were Chinese.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Changing Chinatowns</h2>
<p>Large-scale emigration out of China’s Guangdong province <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/china-development-transformed-migration">started in the 19th century</a>, propelled by poverty and oppression at home and promising opportunities abroad, such as the gold rush in Australia, New Zealand and the U.S., and railroad construction in North America.</p>
<p>Chinatowns – inner-city, compact Chinese residential and commercial quarters – represent the prototypical <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/227240">ethnic enclave</a>, a geographic area with high concentrations of a particular ethnic group. The <a href="https://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinatown/resourceguide/index.html">first Chinatown in the U.S.</a> emerged in San Francisco in 1848 as a gateway and transnational hub for Chinese immigrants.</p>
<p>When the initial gold rush and railroad construction jobs ran dry and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-forgotten-history-of-the-purging-of-chinese-from-america">anti-Chinese racism</a> became rampant, Chinatowns soon became refuges for Chinese immigrants to shield themselves from the harsh reality of legal exclusion and racist violence. A number of Chinatowns were displaced in the name of <a href="https://uhpress.hawaii.edu/title/ethnoburb-the-new-ethnic-community-in-urban-america/">urban development</a> or <a href="https://laist.com/news/la-history/destruction-las-original-chinatown-led-to-one-we-have-today">because of violence</a>.</p>
<p>From the 19th to mid-20th centuries, racist legislation like the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/White-Australia-Policy">White Australia Policy</a> and the Chinese Exclusion Acts <a href="https://parks.canada.ca/culture/designation/evenement-event/exclusion-chinois-chinese">in Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/chinese-exclusion-act#">the U.S.</a> severely curbed Chinese immigration, causing Chinatowns to dwindle or disappear altogether.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of Chinese storefronts, with a large apartment building in the background and cars in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539832/original/file-20230727-79144-2y87qu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">While some Chinatowns have become tourist attractions, others, like that of Washington, D.C., have experienced gentrification and shrinking Chinese communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wei Li</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Since the repeal of those policies, the fate of Chinatowns in different locations has varied dramatically. Some, such as those in <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/new-york-chinatown-and-little-italy-historic-district.htm">New York</a> and <a href="http://www.sanfranciscochinatown.com/history/">San Francisco</a>, became prime tourist attractions and gateways for new immigrants working low-wage jobs. Most have experienced gentrification and international investment from Asia. </p>
<p>This has led to shrinking Chinese communities and business districts in cities like <a href="https://www.historians.org/research-and-publications/perspectives-on-history/december-2017/the-rise-and-fall-of-dcs-chinatown">Washington, D.C.</a>, while other Chinatowns, like those in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-04/chinatown-history-versus-modernity-odyssey/102356524">Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-chinatown-is-much-more-of-a-modern-bridge-to-asia-than-a-historic-enclave-94482">Sydney</a> in Australia, have expanded into thriving neighborhoods. Some intentionally developed Chinatowns, like the one <a href="https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/chinatown-las-vegas">Las Vegas</a> opened in 1995, are commercial plazas with mostly restaurants and shops.</p>
<h2>Emergence of ethnoburbs</h2>
<p>Another type of immigrant community has been emerging since the 1960s as a result of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">changing immigration policies</a>: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">ethnoburbs</a>. These are suburban settlements with multiethnic residential and business areas, where a single ethnic group may not necessarily constitute a majority.</p>
<p>To attract highly skilled and well-educated immigrants, a number of countries instituted point systems that evaluate an applicant’s education, professional experience and language proficiency, among other qualifications. Meanwhile, economic growth in their countries of origin allowed wealthy immigrants to settle directly in the suburbs rather than urban Chinatowns.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0042098984871">shifting geographic center</a> of Chinese settlement in Los Angeles County showcases the development of an ethnoburb. The first half of the 20th century witnessed slow southward movement away from downtown, largely due to Chinese residents’ moving out of Chinatown. Then, during the second half of the century, the center moved steadily eastward as large numbers of new Chinese immigrants directly settled in the suburban San Gabriel Valley, signifying the emergence of an ethnoburb.</p>
<p>Because of the diverse local industries and demographics of immigrants around the world, each ethnoburb evolves in different ways. For example, ethnoburbs in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">Silicon Valley</a> emerged with high-tech industries attracting skilled and affluent Asian Americans who are highly politically involved. And unlike the predominantly Chinese ethnoburb in San Gabriel Valley, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-the-super-diverse-ethnoburbs-90926">Sydney’s “super-diverse ethnoburb”</a> is characterized by multiple different ethnic groups from various countries of origin. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">San Gabriel Valley, a cluster of ethnoburbs in Los Angeles County, is known for its broad array of Chinese cuisine.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Ethnoburbs are different from Chinatowns</h2>
<p>Ethnoburbs coexist with Chinatowns in many countries, but they <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.1018">differ from ethnic enclaves</a> not only in their location but also in terms of their ethnic concentration and class differences. Residents in ethnoburbs are more racially and socioeconomically diverse, suggesting greater potential for racial tensions and class conflicts than traditional ethnic enclaves. For example, the growing presence of wealthy Asians in Arcadia, California, fueled <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/arts/la-et-cm-arcadia-immigration-architecture-20140511-story.html">increasing housing prices and a McMansion boom</a> that concerned local residents. </p>
<p>However, unlike the self-contained communities in ethnic enclaves, residents in ethnoburbs are more likely to interact with other groups, which makes it easier for them to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvvn6b1">forge economic ties and build political alliances</a>. For instance, Asian Americans in Silicon Valley have established business councils and parent associations made up of different Asian ethnicities and exhibit higher political awareness and engagement.</p>
<p>Many ethnoburbs have supplanted Chinatowns as the commercial and cultural centers of contemporary Chinese diasporas.</p>
<p>Obviously, not all Chinese people live in Chinatowns or ethnoburbs. Many live in other locations, and they’re not always surrounded by other Chinese people. Geographers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1220(199812)4:4%3C281::aid-ijpg108%3E3.0.co;2-o">coined the term “heterolocalism”</a> to describe immigrants and minorities who live in areas with less ethnic diversity but are still able to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0038022920956737">retain their cultural identity</a>.</p>
<h2>Geopolitics and integration</h2>
<p>Changing political climates may also lead to shifting trends in immigration. </p>
<p>Recent decades have seen increasing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/anti-asian-hate-crimes-increased-339-percent-nationwide-last-year-repo-rcna14282">anti-Asian hate</a> amid rising geopolitical tensions with the People’s Republic of China, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The long-term effects of these trends on Chinese diasporas are unclear. But many are already experiencing the backlash and face racial violence.</p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="https://www.committee100.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/C100-Lee-Li-White-Paper-FINAL-FINAL-10.28.pdf">Chinese scientists</a> are facing racial profiling, Chinese business owners have had their <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/smashed-windows-racist-graffiti-vandals-target-asian-americans-amid-coronavirus-n1180556">properties vandalized</a> and many Chinese Americans have been <a href="https://stopaapihate.org/2022/07/20/year-2-report/">violently attacked</a>. States have <a href="https://www.quorum.us/spreadsheet/external/KscrjHCRzvqUdRtMcgpX/">passed or proposed laws</a> that bar or restrict citizens of China from purchasing properties. These laws resemble 20th-century <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/86722/with-new-alien-land-laws-asian-immigrants-are-once-again-targeted-by-real-estate-bans/">U.S. Alien Land Laws</a> that prohibited Asian immigrants from owning land. Anti-Chinese violence is also happening in other places like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100232">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/12/covid-19-fueling-anti-asian-racism-and-xenophobia-worldwide">Europe</a>.</p>
<p>We hope that ethnoburbs will not become, like historical Chinatowns, the only refuge for Chinese immigrants to live. Learning from history’s mistakes is key to building a fair and just society for all, the Chinese diaspora included.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wei Li receives funding from US National Science Foundation, Canadian Government, Fulbright. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yining Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Chinatowns once served as gateways for early Chinese immigrants. But the suburbs are the center of cultural and commercial life for new immigrants and later generations.Wei Li, Professor of Asian Pacific American Studies, Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State UniversityYining Tan, Assistant Professor of Practice, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2063112023-05-24T18:07:47Z2023-05-24T18:07:47ZDepression is more common in the suburbs than in city centres – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527971/original/file-20230524-19-hsxhf0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=114%2C26%2C4378%2C3065&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Copenhagen, where people enjoy each other's company – and the proximity to the water.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/copenhagen-denmark-august-25-unidentified-people-163182242">Fedor Selivanov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The rapid growth of cities comes with many challenges. How can we build greener? And how can we support the health and wellbeing of the people living in urban areas? </p>
<p>This seems to involve a trade-off. Many studies show that denser neighbourhoods are relatively better for the planet, but <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/cities-increase-your-risk-of-depression-anxiety-and-psychosis-but-bring-mental-health-benefits-too">come with higher depression risks</a>. </p>
<p>It may seem unsurprising that depression is less common in the countryside. Stress, noise, air pollution, loneliness and lack of sunlight on the ground floor of a high-rise apartment are just a few examples of the challenges faced by urban dwellers. These factors may in fact be behind the 39% <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5374256/">increased risk of depression</a> for urban areas in western European countries and in the US.</p>
<p>But as it turns out, some urban areas are better than others. My colleagues and I have produced a new study, <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf3760">published in Science Advances</a>, which shows that people in the suburbs are more likely to be depressed than those in city centres. </p>
<h2>Important factors</h2>
<p>We wanted to find out which factors in the built environment were the most important for psychological wellbeing so that cities can be designed better to be both sustainable and supportive of mental health.</p>
<p>A hectare of land can house the same amount of population with dense low-rises or sparse high-rises. High rises can be either in dense bustling business districts or in less dense city areas with fancy apartments facing a large green. </p>
<p>Suburbs, however, tend to have a medium density of low-rise buildings. Which approach should we take?</p>
<p>Our team, including researchers from Yale University in the US, Stockholm and Gävle universities in Sweden, and Aarhus University and the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, looked at a very large amount of source material for our study. Using machine learning tools, we examined satellite images of all buildings in Denmark over 30 years (1987-2017). We then classified them into different categories depending on height and density. </p>
<p>We combined the resulting map with individual residential addresses, and health and socio-economic registers in Denmark. This allowed us to account for known factors that increase the risk of depression, such as socio-economic status or parents being diagnosed with mental illness.</p>
<p>The results show no clear correlation that dense inner city areas impact on depression. This may be because dense city centres can provide relatively more opportunities of social networking and interaction – which may benefit mental health. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Suburb in Australia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527973/original/file-20230524-23-477p7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Suburb in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-typical-suburb-australia-641035918">Jandrie Lombard/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Nor do rural areas appear to increase the risk of mental health problems. Instead, after accounting for socio-economic factors, the highest risk was found in the low-rise and single-family housing suburbs. </p>
<p>Ultimately, multi-storey buildings in central locations or in proximate suburbs with easy access to open spaces – such as green parks or shorelines – showed surprisingly low risks. </p>
<p>That means that the type of area with an elevated risk of mental health problems typically features medium density and low-rise developments such as suburban single-family housing areas.</p>
<h2>Implications for planning</h2>
<p>We think the relative higher risks of depression found in sprawling, low-rise suburbs may be partly down to long car commutes, less public open space and not high enough resident density to enable many local commercial places where people can gather together, such as shops, cafes and restaurants. But of course, there may be many other factors, too.</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean there aren’t potential benefits to living in the suburbs. Some people may in fact prefer privacy, silence and having their own garden. </p>
<p>We hope that this study can be used as a basis for urban planning. The study provides no support for the continued expansion of car-dependent, suburban single-family housing areas if planners want to mitigate mental health issues and climate change.</p>
<p>A better option could be to invest in high-rise housing where lifestyles are not dependent on private car ownership, combined with thoughtful spatial design to increase access to shorelines, canals, lakes or urban parks. We could also improve existing suburbs’ accessibility to both urban services and to public open spaces, and to make sure there are more walkable neighbourhoods in these car-centred areas. </p>
<p>The research points to how social human beings are. A certain level of density is after all necessary to create lively communities that can support shops, businesses and public transport while at the same time allowing restoration with the benefit of open space.</p>
<p>In Copenhagen, people grab a beer or pastry and hang out with friends along the canal. These areas are at the fringe of both shops and nature – making the spaces social. City centres also have <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0739456X05285119">less of a bad impact on climate change</a> than spread-out, car-centred suburbia does.</p>
<p>While the study controlled for income and unemployment, it is crucial to recognise that housing choices are influenced by socioeconomic factors. Water- or green-front properties in downtown areas are significantly more expensive than houses in the outskirts. </p>
<p>So taking action to address the inequality this can cause, such creating mixed-income housing projects, is essential to ensure attempts to use city planning to improve people’s welfare are inclusive and do not contribute to gentrification or displacement of low-income communities.</p>
<p>We recognise that the study’s findings in Denmark may not be directly applicable to all other countries. The socio-environmental factors of mental wellbeing are dependent on cultural and geographical contexts. However, the framework developed in this study provides a foundation for further research in different parts of the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206311/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Chen has received funding from Nasa.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span> Stephan Barthel receives funding from Kunskapsstiftelsen for FUTURE PROOF CITIES and from Mistra and Formas for the program called Fair Transformation to a Fossil Free Future.</span></em></p>Areas of Danish towns and cities with fewer people and more cars come with a higher risk of depression.Karen Chen, Donnelley Postdoctoral Associate in Geography, Yale UniversityStephan Barthel, Principal researcher of Urban Sustainability, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047442023-05-08T19:37:13Z2023-05-08T19:37:13ZWhy rural Canadians need public transit just as urgently as suburbanites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524902/original/file-20230508-213774-3dxxqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C417%2C5472%2C2662&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rural public transit has important economic and social benefits. So why does Canada fail so badly on providing it to rural residents?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-rural-canadians-need-public-transit-just-as-urgently-as-suburbanites" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Transportation within and between Canadian communities is frustrating at best. At worst it’s impossible. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bbc-race-across-the-world-1.6804863">BBC’s <em>Race Across the World</em> shows contestants trying to make their way around British Columbia</a> without access to rental cars or planes. Limited transit options leave contestants frustrated, <a href="https://westcoastnow.ca/2023/04/09/race-across-the-world-british-travelers-face-transport-challenges-in-bc/">reliant on hitch-hiking</a> and costly taxis. </p>
<p>The show loses its entertainment value when viewers have to watch contestants struggle every day to find transportation — especially rural viewers for whom this daily challenge is all too routine.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1644099397133963265"}"></div></p>
<p>Even so, compared with the rest of the country, rural B.C. actually has a large number of local transit options, as well as some longer distance inter-community services. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bctransit.com/choose-transit-system">BC Transit</a> works with local governments <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/transportation-projects/surrey-langley-skytrain/surrey-langley-skytrain-project-indigenous-engagement">and First Nations</a> to deliver transit services. That’s unique in Canada and partly accounts for the relatively large number of rural public transit systems in B.C.</p>
<p>Transportation in rural Canada is an important issue. It’s also poorly understood, leading to ongoing policy failures and solutions that miss the mark.</p>
<h2>Rural transit needs</h2>
<p>Not all people living in rural areas have personal vehicles. It’s also a mistake to assume that regular, shorter trips happen within a single community. Inter-community travel is both long haul (occasional) and short (daily). </p>
<p>Personal mobility is critically important to accessing basic services like education and health care, as well as for employment, shopping and recreation. </p>
<p>Transit can increase available markets and workforce, make communities more attractive to potential residents and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In short, the benefits of accessible, affordable public transit in rural communities are economic, social and environmental.</p>
<p>Despite these benefits, rural communities across Canada struggle to establish and maintain transit systems. They face barriers different from urban areas, as well as different from each other. In a <a href="https://ojs.library.queensu.ca/index.php/cpp/article/view/15783/10572">recent study</a>, my fellow researchers and I identified seven types of rural transit barriers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A transit bus with a bike on a bike rack attached to the front of the vehicle." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524911/original/file-20230508-186646-djramq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A B.C. Transit bus arrives in Smithers, B.C., near the B.C.-Alaska border.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All rural transit systems are likely to face barriers related to cost. This is due in part to their small size, as systems lack the ridership and economies of scale of urban systems. This means they’re less likely to be profitable because the benefits of transit are widespread across communities and society, while the costs are borne by the operator. </p>
<p>Combinations of local factors, like the physical environment, travel patterns and economic structure, also create unique challenges not easily addressed with a traditional, fixed-route bus transit system. </p>
<p>Rural communities need a high level of both human and financial capacity to start and maintain a transit system. Low (if any) potential profit means rural transit is often run by local governments or not-for-profit organizations, which require a high level of both human and financial capacity to start and maintain a transit system. </p>
<p>Limited human and financial capacity in rural places has an impact on the ability to pay both hard costs and operational ones. Nonetheless, the operational costs and their ongoing strain on capacity pose the most significant challenge. </p>
<h2>Gaps in our knowledge</h2>
<p>There is another issue: gaps within our knowledge base. In a synthesis of <a href="https://sc.arcabc.ca/islandora/object/sc%3A5510">rural transit literature in Canada</a>, my fellow researchers and I found three substantial gaps:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Research on rural transit is limited.</p></li>
<li><p>“Rural” is often treated as a single thing, as if all rural communities have the same needs and challenges, contradicting what we know about place-specific barriers. </p></li>
<li><p>What we know is biased towards larger, urban-adjacent rural communities, as well as towards regions like Ontario and British Columbia. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Overall, our understanding is narrow and incomplete. So it’s no wonder that we see gaps in the policies and programs created based on this limited understanding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A green and white double-decker train sits at a red brick train station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524910/original/file-20230508-174052-502jlx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A GO Transit train sits parked at the Niagara Falls train station in August 2022. The public transit challenges of urban-adjacent communities are different than those of rural areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tara Walton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Government initiatives fall short</h2>
<p>In early 2023, the federal government announced Canada’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/rural-trans-rural/index-eng.html">Rural Transit Solutions Fund</a> would be accepting applications for capital projects. </p>
<p>With $250 million over five years dedicated to rural communities, the fund eliminates competition with urban centres. It is flexible in terms of what can be funded by government, and it’s open to innovative ideas. It’s also open to partnerships offering inter-community transit. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1376547695377010690"}"></div></p>
<p>The gap is in what it won’t fund. There are <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/rural-trans-rural/faq-eng.html">no funds related to operations</a>. You can buy a bus or other vehicles, but you cannot lease one for a short-term pilot project. You can’t pay for a driver, or any of the other people needed to design, manage or operate a system. </p>
<p>It is typical of government funding not to cover operational costs. However, given the severity of the rural capacity gap and that it underscores every other barrier relative to rural transit systems, this is a significant issue. </p>
<p>The Rural Transit Solutions Fund is just one example of efforts to bolster rural transit that fall short. </p>
<h2>Missing the mark</h2>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transit-fund-1.5908346">funding announcements</a>, as well as the work of the <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/TRAN/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=11904590">Standing Committee on Inter-City Transportation by Bus</a>, show there’s a recognition of the need for rural transit and an attempt to take some steps in the right direction. </p>
<p>But there is a continuing misunderstanding of rural realities, particularly relating to available human and financial capacity. Ultimately this puts transit out of reach for many rural areas.</p>
<p>There is a clear need for further research to address rural knowledge gaps. In the interim, decision-makers must be cognizant of gaps and biases. </p>
<p>When it comes to solutions, the differences among rural communities illustrate the need for solutions that are flexible and account for unique rural realities. And if we want the broad benefits of accessible transportation, we need to fund both the buses and the drivers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah-Patricia Breen received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada in support of her rural transportation research.</span></em></p>There is a continuing misunderstanding of rural realities by policymakers. Ultimately this puts transit out of reach for many rural areas.Sarah-Patricia Breen, Adjunct Professor, Environment and Sustainability, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027082023-04-14T12:18:23Z2023-04-14T12:18:23ZLow-cost, high-quality public transportation will serve the public better than free rides<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520876/original/file-20230413-14-9lul24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C2485%2C1665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chicago's Washington-Wabash station opened in 2017 – the first new stop on the city's elevated rail system in 20 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/train-arrives-at-the-washington-wabash-station-in-chicago-news-photo/1159260224">Youngrae Kim/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public transit systems face daunting challenges across the U.S., from pandemic ridership losses to traffic congestion, fare evasion and pressure to keep rides affordable. In some cities, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/15/inflation-free-public-transportation-00039644">Boston</a>, <a href="https://www.governing.com/community/what-can-cities-learn-from-kansas-citys-fare-free-transit-program">Kansas City</a> and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/free-public-transportation-accelerates-in-some-us-cities/6966994.html">Washington</a>, many elected officials and advocates see fare-free public transit as the solution. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.transit.dot.gov/cares-act">Federal COVID-19 relief funds</a>, which have subsidized transit operations across the nation at an unprecedented level since 2020, offered a natural experiment in free-fare transit. Advocates applauded these changes and are now pushing to make <a href="https://dcist.com/story/23/03/01/fare-free-buses-in-jeopardy-as-d-c-revenue-projections-drop/">fare-free bus lines</a> <a href="https://qns.com/2023/03/queens-legislators-urge-governor-to-include-mta-fare-freeze-free-bus-funding-in-final-state-budget/">permanent</a>.</p>
<p>But although these experiments aided low-income families and <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2023/03/06/ridership-on-fare-free-mbta-buses-more-than-doubled-in-programs-first-year">modestly boosted ridership</a>, they also created new political and economic challenges for beleaguered transit agencies. With ridership still <a href="https://transitapp.com/APTA">dramatically below pre-pandemic levels</a> and temporary federal support expiring, transportation agencies face <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23653855/covid-transit-fares-buses-subways-crisis">an economic and managerial “doom spiral</a>.” </p>
<p>Free public transit that doesn’t bankrupt agencies would require a revolution in transit funding. In most regions, U.S. voters – <a href="https://www.thetransportpolitic.com/databook/travel-mode-shares-in-the-u-s/">85% of whom commute by automobile</a> – have resisted deep subsidies and expect fare collection to cover a portion of operating budgets. Studies also show that transit riders are likely to prefer <a href="https://doi.org/10.17610/T6WC8Z">better, low-cost service to free rides</a> on the substandard options that exist in much of the U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bright blue light rail train collect passengers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520884/original/file-20230413-22-u4m1ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The KC Streetcar is a free two-mile route running along Main Street in downtown Kansas City, Mo. The city also offers free bus rides, but infrequent service is a concern.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kansas-city-missouri-the-kc-streetcar-is-a-free-two-mile-news-photo/1459409750">Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why isn’t transit free?</h2>
<p>As I recount in my new book, “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/G/bo191431990.html">The Great American Transit Disaster</a>,” mass transit in the U.S. was an unsubsidized, privately operated service for decades prior to the 1960s and 1970s. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, prosperous city dwellers used public transit to escape from overcrowded urban neighborhoods to more spacious “<a href="https://www.governing.com/context/the-fascinating-rise-and-fall-of-streetcar-suburbs">streetcar suburbs</a>.” Commuting symbolized success for families with the income to pay the daily fare. </p>
<p>These systems were self-financing: Transit company investors made their money in suburban real estate when rail lines opened up. They charged low fares to entice riders looking to buy land and homes. The most famous example was the Pacific Electric “red car” transit system in Los Angeles that <a href="https://ohiostatepress.org/books/BookPages/FriedricksHenry.htm">Henry Huntingdon</a> built to transform his vast landholdings into profitable subdivisions.</p>
<p>However, once streetcar suburbs were built out, these companies had no further incentive to provide excellent transit. Unhappy voters felt suckered into crummy commutes. In response, city officials retaliated against the powerful transit interests by taxing them heavily and charging them for street repairs. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the introduction of <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fords-assembly-line-starts-rolling">mass-produced personal cars</a> created new competition for public transit. As autos gained popularity in the 1920s and 1930s, frustrated commuters swapped out riding for driving, and private transit companies like Pacific Electric began failing. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AwKv3_WwD4o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In the early 20th century, Los Angeles had a world-class public transit system – here’s how it went off the rails.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Grudging public takeovers</h2>
<p>In most cities, politicians refused to prop up the often-hated private transit companies that now were begging for tax concessions, fare increases or public buyouts. In 1959, for instance, politicians still forced Baltimore’s fading private transit company, the BTC, to <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/G/bo191431990.html">divert US$2.6 million in revenues annually</a> to taxes. The companies retaliated by slashing maintenance, routes and service.</p>
<p>Local and state governments finally stepped in to save the ruins of the hardest-strapped companies in the 1960s and 1970s. Public buyouts took place only after decades of devastating losses, including most streetcar networks, in cities such as Baltimore (1970), Atlanta (1971) and Houston (1974). </p>
<p>These poorly subsidized public systems continued to lose riders. Transit’s <a href="https://www.thetransportpolitic.com/databook/travel-mode-shares-in-the-u-s/">share of daily commuters</a> fell from 8.5% in 1970 to 4.9% in 2018. And while low-income people <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/07/who-relies-on-public-transit-in-the-u-s/">disproportionately ride transit</a>, a 2008 study showed that roughly 80% of the working poor <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/commuting-to-opportunity-the-working-poor-and-commuting-in-the-united-states/">commuted by vehicle instead</a>, despite the high cost of car ownership.</p>
<p>There were exceptions. Notably, San Francisco and Boston began subsidizing transit in 1904 and 1918, respectively, by sharing tax revenues with newly created public operators. Even in the face of significant ridership losses from 1945 to 1970, these cities’ transit systems kept fares low, maintained legacy rail and bus lines and modestly renovated their systems.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/odF4GSX1y3c?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tax policies and subsidies have promoted highway development across the U.S. for the past century, creating car-centric cities and steering funding away from public transit.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Converging pressures</h2>
<p>Today, public transit is under enormous pressure nationwide. Inflation and driver shortages are driving up operating costs. Managers are <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-02-24/overdose-deaths-on-metro-trains">spending more money on public safety</a> in response to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/us/public-transit-crime.html">rising transit crime rates</a> and unhoused people <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2023/03/23/the-future-of-fare-free-buses-in-raleigh">using buses and trains for shelter</a>. </p>
<p>Many systems are also contending with decrepit infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives U.S. public transit systems a grade of D-minus and estimates their national backlog of <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit-infrastructure/">unmet capital needs at $176 billion</a>. Deferred repairs and upgrades reduce service quality, leading to events like a 30-day <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/boston-braces-for-transit-emergency-as-orange-line-shutdown-looms-ahead/2809005/">emergency shutdown of an entire subway line</a> in Boston in 2022.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1641767980395626499"}"></div></p>
<p>Despite flashing warning signs, political support for public transit <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-u-s-unwilling-to-pay-for-good-public-transportation-56788">remains weak</a>, especially <a href="https://www.governing.com/now/driving-on-the-right-americas-polarized-transportation-policy">among conservatives</a>. So it’s not clear that relying on government to make up for free fares is sustainable or a priority. </p>
<p>For example, in Washington, <a href="https://dcist.com/story/23/03/01/fare-free-buses-in-jeopardy-as-d-c-revenue-projections-drop/">conflict is brewing</a> within the city government over how to fund a free bus initiative. Kansas City, the largest U.S. system to adopt fare-free transit, faces a new challenge: finding funding to expand its small network, which <a href="https://www.governing.com/community/what-can-cities-learn-from-kansas-citys-fare-free-transit-program">just 3% of its residents use</a>. </p>
<h2>A better model</h2>
<p>Other cities are using more targeted strategies to make public transit accessible to everyone. For example, “Fair fare” programs in San Francisco, <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/site/fairfares/index.page">New York</a> and Boston offer discounts based on income, while still collecting full fares from those who can afford to pay. Income-based discounts like these reduce the political liability of giving free rides to everyone, including affluent transit users. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1556635710693810176"}"></div></p>
<p>Some providers have initiated or <a href="https://transitforwardri.com/pdf/Strategy%20Paper%2025.%20Fare%20Integration%20190725%20FINAL.pdf">are</a> <a href="https://www.seamlessbayarea.org/integrated-fare-vision">considering</a> <a href="https://www.transitchicago.com/new-agreement-will-streamline-and-enhance-cta-and-pace-unlimited-ride-passes-in-2023/">fare integration</a> policies. In this approach, transfers between different types of transit and systems are free; riders pay one time. For example, in Chicago, rapid transit or bus riders can transfer at no charge to a suburban bus to finish their trips, and vice versa. </p>
<p>Fare integration is less costly than fare-free systems, and lower-income riders stand to benefit. Enabling riders to pay for all types of trips with a single <a href="https://www.securetechalliance.org/smart-cards-applications-transportation/">smart card</a> further streamlines their journeys. </p>
<p>As ridership grows under Fair Fares and fare integration, I expect that additional revenue will help build better service, attracting more riders. Increasing ridership while supporting agency budgets will help make the political case for deeper public investments in service and equipment. A virtuous circle could develop.</p>
<p>History shows what works best to rebuild public transit networks, and free transit isn’t high on the list. Cities like Boston, San Francisco and New York have more transit because voters and politicians have supplemented fare collection with a combination of property taxes, bridge tolls, sales taxes and more. Taking fares out of the formula spreads the red ink even faster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Dagen Bloom does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everyone likes getting something for nothing, but history shows why the math behind free public transit doesn’t add up.Nicholas Dagen Bloom, Professor of Urban Policy and Planning, Hunter CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2025862023-04-11T12:06:47Z2023-04-11T12:06:47ZWhy more and more Americans are painting their lawns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519945/original/file-20230407-24-ap7wd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=417%2C17%2C2573%2C1764&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Americans – especially those living in areas affected by drought – are turning to paint to give their grass that perfect green sheen.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/green-canary-president-shawn-sahbari-sprays-green-water-news-photo/452491090?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To paint or not to paint?</p>
<p>That is the question that many homeowners are facing as their dreams for perfect turf are battered – whether it’s from inflation pushing pricier lawn care options out of reach, or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/05/09/california-drought-lawns-climate-change/">droughts leading to water shortages</a>.</p>
<p>Increasingly, many are turning in the spreader for the paint can, opting, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawns-paint-green-landscaping-neighbors-6f54f61">a report in The Wall Street Journal</a>, for shades of green with names like “Fairway” and “Perennial Rye.” </p>
<p>Where does this yen for turning the outside of the house into a trim green carpet come from? </p>
<p>Some years ago, I decided to investigate and the result was my book “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/American_Green.html?id=vtbGHAAACAAJ">American Green: The Obsessive Quest for the Perfect Lawn</a>.” </p>
<p>What I found was that lawns extend far back in American history. Former presidents George Washington and Thomas Jefferson had lawns, but these were not perfect greenswards. It turns out that the ideal of perfect turf – a weed-free, supergreen monoculture – is a recent phenomenon. </p>
<h2>The not-so-perfect lawns of Levittown</h2>
<p>Its beginnings can largely be traced to the post–World War II era when suburban developments such as the iconic <a href="https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/31/the-controversial-history-of-levittown-americas-first-suburb/">Levittown, New York</a>, had its start. </p>
<p>Levittown was the brainchild of the Levitt family, which viewed landscaping – a word that only entered the English language in the 1930s – as a form of “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/American_Green_The_Obsessive_Quest_for_t/C3wEEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=american+green+steinberg&printsec=frontcover">neighborhood stabilization</a>,” or a way of bolstering property values. The Levitts, who built 17,000 homes between 1947 and 1951, thus insisted that homeowners mow the yard once a week between April and November and included the stricture in covenants accompanying their deeds.</p>
<p>But the Levitts took the obsession with the lawn only so far. “I don’t believe in being a slave to the lawn,” <a href="https://longreads.com/2019/07/18/american-green/">wrote Abraham Levitt</a>. Clover was, to him, “just as nice” as grass. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of woman standing outside her suburban home with a perfectly manicured lawn." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519948/original/file-20230407-951-px6n81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The developers of Levittown required homeowners to mow their yards once a week between April and November.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/1950s-woman-standing-at-front-door-of-frame-house-in-news-photo/1175266594?adppopup=true">ClassicStock/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Engineering perfection</h2>
<p>All of which is to say that the quest for the perfect lawn did not come naturally. It had to be engineered, and one of the greatest influencers in this regard was the Scotts Co. of Marysville, Ohio, which took agricultural chemicals and created concoctions that homeowners could spread over their yards. </p>
<p>Formulators like Scotts had one great advantage: <a href="https://pesticidetruths.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Reference-Turf-Ornamentals-1998-03-00-The-Origins-of-Turfgrass-Species-Beard-GCM.pdf">Turfgrass is not native to North America</a>, and growing it on the continent is, for the most part, an uphill ecological battle. Homeowners thus needed a lot of help in the quest for perfection.</p>
<p>But first Scotts had to help lodge the idea of perfect turf in the American imagination. Scotts was able to tap into <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/As_Seen_on_TV/kvADAwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=marling+as+seen+on+tv&printsec=frontcover">postwar trends in brightly colored consumer products</a>. From yellow slacks to blue Jell-O, colored products became status symbols and a sign that the consumer had rejected the drab black-and-white world of urban life for the modern suburb and its kaleidoscopic colors – which included, of course, the vibrant green lawn.</p>
<p>Architectural trends also helped the perfect turf aesthetic take root. A <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_American_House_Today/NNKqzgEACAAJ?hl=en">blurring of indoor and outdoor space</a> occurred in the postwar era as patios and eventually sliding glass doors invited homeowners to treat the yard as an extension of their family room. What better way to achieve a comfy outdoor living space than to carpet the yard in a nice greensward. </p>
<p>In 1948, the perfect lawn took a giant step forward when the Scotts Co. began selling its “Weed and Feed” lawn care product, which allowed homeowners to eliminate weeds and fertilize simultaneously. </p>
<p>The development was probably one of the worst things ever to happen, ecologically speaking, to the American yard. Now homeowners were spreading the toxic herbicide 2,4-D – which has since been <a href="https://www.beyondpesticides.org/assets/media/documents/pesticides/factsheets/2-4-D.pdf">linked to cancer, reproductive harm and neurological impairment</a> – on their lawns as a matter of course, whether they were having an issue with weeds or not.</p>
<p>Selective herbicides like 2,4-D killed broadleaf “weeds” like clover and left the grass intact. Clover and bluegrass, a desirable turf species, <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/American_Green_The_Obsessive_Quest_for_t/C3wEEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=clover%20and%20bluegrass%20evolved%20together">evolved together</a>, with the former capturing nitrogen from the air and adding it to the soil as fertilizer. Killing it off sent homeowners back to the store for more artificial fertilizer to make up for the deficit. </p>
<p>That was bad news for homeowners, but a good business model for those companies selling lawn care products who, on the one hand, handicapped homeowners by killing off the clover and, on the other hand, sold them more chemical inputs to recreate what could have occurred naturally. </p>
<p>The “perfect” lawn had come of age.</p>
<h2>The meaning of grass painting</h2>
<p>By the early 1960s, homeowners were already looking for ways of achieving perfect turf on the cheap. </p>
<p>A 1964 article in Newsweek pointed out that green grass paint was being sold in 35 states. <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/American_Green_The_Obsessive_Quest_for_t/C3wEEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=american+green+steinberg&printsec=frontcover">The magazine opined</a> that because a homeowner “needs a Bachelor of Chemistry to comprehend the bewildering variety of weed and bug destroyers now fogging the market,” paint was becoming an attractive alternative. </p>
<p>So the interest in grass painting is not entirely new.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bird's eye view of suburban houses with green lawns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520042/original/file-20230410-26-l74rcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Suburban tract houses in Centerville, Md.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/ticky-tack-royalty-free-image/627412695?phrase=bird's%20eye%20view%20suburbia&adppopup=true">Edwin Remsberg/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What is new, however, is that the recent interest in painting the lawn is taking place in a context in which a more pluralistic vision of the yard has taken root. </p>
<p>People fed up with corporate-dominated lawn care are turning back the clock and <a href="https://www.apartmenttherapy.com/clover-lawns-37181185">cultivating their yards with clover</a>, a plant that is resistant to drought and provides nutrients to the lawn, to boot. And so the clover lawn has been making a comeback, with videos on TikTok tagged #cloverlawn <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/cloverlawn">boasting 78 million views</a>.</p>
<p>Together, the return of grass painting with the resurgent interest in clover lawns suggests that the ideal of the resource-intensive perfect lawn is an ecological conceit that the country may no longer be able to afford.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ted Steinberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ideal of perfect turf – a weed-free, supergreen monoculture – is a relatively recent phenomenon.Ted Steinberg, Professor of History, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990522023-03-02T13:25:16Z2023-03-02T13:25:16ZWhy the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512930/original/file-20230301-18-707tmn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C10%2C3629%2C2730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/IndyGo_Red_Line_BRT.jpg">Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/transit-infrastructure/">aging, underfunded and losing riders</a>, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/21/why-the-first-autonomous-vehicles-winners-wont-be-in-your-driveway.html">self-driving cars</a> and <a href="https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/future-transportation/">flying taxis</a>. But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1I-ZPh8AAAAJ&hl=en">researcher in urban policy and planning</a>, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus. </p>
<p>Today, buses in many parts of the U.S. are old and don’t run often enough or serve all the places where people need to go. But this doesn’t reflect the bus’s true capability. Instead, as I see it, it’s the result of cities, states and federal leaders failing to subsidize a quality public service. </p>
<p>As I show in <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/G/bo191431990.html#anchor-awards">my new book</a>, “The Great American Transit Disaster: A Century of Austerity, Auto-Centric Planning, and White Flight,” few U.S. politicians have focused on bus riders’ experiences over the past half-century. And many executives have lavished precious federal capital dollars on building new <a href="https://www.metrostlouis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/OP220484-MetroLink-System-Map.pdf">light</a>, <a href="https://www.metrostlouis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/OP220484-MetroLink-System-Map.pdf">rapid</a> and commuter rail lines, in hope of attracting suburban riders back to city centers and mass transit. </p>
<p>This was never a great strategy to begin with, and the pandemic-era flight of knowledge workers to home offices and hybrid schedules has left little to show for decades of rail-centric efforts. Meanwhile, countries in Europe and Latin America have out-innovated the U.S. in providing quality bus service. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t have to be this way. Many U.S. cities are coming around to the idea that buses are the future of public transit and are working to make that vision real. And the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law enacted in 2021 is providing <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/president-biden-and-us-department-transportation-announce-409-million-70">billions of dollars</a> for new buses and related facilities.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-ZDZtBRTyeI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The car-centered U.S. transportation system has impoverished public transit and left many people’s transit needs unmet.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Buses as disruptors</h2>
<p>A century ago, motorized buses were the technological wonder of their day. Rolling fast on tires over newly paved streets, buses upended urban rail transit by freeing riders from aging, crowded, screeching streetcars. In 1922, American buses carried 404 million passengers; by 1930, they were carrying 2.5 billion yearly. </p>
<p>At that time, transit lines were mostly privately owned. But this model was failing as riders became car drivers, new zoning laws prioritized car-friendly single-family housing and government regulators battled transit companies over fares and taxes. </p>
<p>Transit executives trying to eke out a profit saw buses as a way to reduce spending on track maintenance and labor costs for “two man” operated streetcars. City leaders and planners also embraced buses, which helped them justify removing streetcar tracks to make streets more navigable for cars. From the 1920s through the 1960s, nearly all U.S. streetcar lines were replaced with buses powered by either internal combustion engines or electric overhead wires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two red double-decker buses pass each other along Whitehall in central London." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512943/original/file-20230301-1565-c5g4xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">London’s signature red buses cover the entire city, with 24-hour service on many lines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/red-double-decker-buses-pass-along-whitehall-on-11th-july-news-photo/1241871118">Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This wasn’t just a U.S. trend. Toronto massively extended bus service across a vast metropolitan area between <a href="https://transittoronto.ca/archives/maps/guide1954f.gif">1954</a> and <a href="https://transittoronto.ca/archives/maps/ttc-system-map-19740330.png">1974</a>, using buses to feed suburban riders to a new subway system and a few remaining streetcar lines. By 1952, London’s managers had replaced streetcars with the city’s signature fleet of double-decker buses, which complemented its legendary Underground service. </p>
<p>Across Europe, cities relied on buses to support and complement their modernizing tram or subway networks. Political leaders provided deep subsidies to deliver better bus and rail service. </p>
<h2>The auto-centric US path</h2>
<p>In the U.S., however, federal investments in the same time frame focused on building a national highway system to serve private automobiles. Lacking tax subsidies, bus networks could not compete with cheap cars and government-funded highways. Aging buses and infrequent service became the default postwar reality – and those buses had to travel on local streets crowded with private cars. </p>
<p>Between 1945 and 1960, U.S. transit companies and agencies typically lost half or more of their riders as white Americans moved to urban fringes or suburbs and became car commuters. Bus service remained concentrated in older, central-city neighborhoods, serving a disproportionately nonwhite, low-income ridership. </p>
<p>Many public systems had to cut bus service year after year to balance their books. Only a few cities that were willing to provide significant operating subsidies, including <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35ea36ZfMPE">San Francisco</a> and Boston, were able to maintain better bus networks and some trolleybuses. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AwKv3_WwD4o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Los Angeles once had a high-quality public transit system, centered on streetcars.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New, better buses</h2>
<p>Today, there’s renewed interest in improving bus service in the U.S., inspired by innovations around the globe. The Brazilian <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJR9uCSyGKM">city of Curitiba</a>, which is well known for its innovations in urban planning, set a model in the 1970s when it adopted <a href="https://www.transit.dot.gov/research-innovation/bus-rapid-transit">bus rapid transit</a> – buses that run in dedicated lanes, with streamlined boarding systems and priority at traffic signals. </p>
<p>Curitiba helped popularize <a href="https://www.busworldlatinamerica.org/en/news/30-years-have-passed-appearance-bi-articulated-buses">bi-articulated buses</a>, which are extra-long with flexible connectors that let the buses bend around corners. These buses, which can carry large numbers of passengers, now are in wide use in Europe, Latin America and Asia. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A green bus with several segments connected by flexible panels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512960/original/file-20230301-26-bbgohx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bi-articulated bus in Metz, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bi-articulated_bus#/media/File:Van_Hool_ExquiCity_24_METTIS_n%C2%B01315_P+R_Woippy.jpg">Florian Fèvre/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cities across the globe, led by London, have also aggressively expanded contactless payment systems, which speed up the boarding process. Advanced bus systems and new technologies like these flourish in regions where politicians strongly support transit as a public service. </p>
<p>In my view, buses are the most likely option for substantially expanding public transit ridership in the U.S. Millions of Americans need affordable public mobility for work, study, recreation and shopping. Car ownership is a <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/blogs/111535-automobile-dependency-unequal-burden">financial burden </a> that can be as serious for low-income families as the shortage of affordable housing. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/2022/08/annual-cost-of-new-car-ownership-crosses-10k-mark/">average yearly cost</a> for U.S. households to own and operate a new car reached US$10,728 in 2022. Nor are used cars the bargain they once were. <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/when-will-car-prices-drop">Used car prices are high</a>, financing is often subprime and older vehicles require expensive maintenance. </p>
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<p>Rapidly extending bus networks would be the speediest and most economical way to serve these families and grow transit ridership in the sprawling landscape of American metros. U.S. roads and highways are already maintained by the government, eliminating the need to build and maintain expensive rail lines. </p>
<p>There are promising domestic models even amid the pandemic ridership crisis. In the past two decades, Seattle’s <a href="https://mass.streetsblog.org/2019/11/25/five-lessons-from-seattles-successful-crusade-against-driving/">Sound Transit</a> has upgraded its bus network, aligning these improvements with increased residential density, low fares and a carefully considered light rail expansion. <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-s-Van-Ness-BRT-created-a-ridership-boom-17556984.php">San Francisco</a> and <a href="https://www.nyc.gov/html/brt/html/routes/14th-street.shtml">New York</a> have developed exclusive bus lanes that move riders along popular routes at higher speeds. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7031287651110379521/">Indianapolis</a> is expanding an effective bus rapid transit system. Many cities, including <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2022/07/26/rtd-new-bus-network/">Denver</a> and <a href="https://www.mbta.com/projects/better-bus-project">Boston</a>, are investing in “better bus” upgrades that emphasize frequent service, easy transfers and better geographic coverage.</p>
<p>Innovations like these will only succeed long term with sufficient subsidies to maintain innovative services at reliable levels. The history of bus transit is littered with pilot programs that were abandoned on cost grounds just as they were gaining popularity. As I see it, buses don’t need to be faster or more convenient than cars to attract and retain riders – but they need to be, and can be, much better transit options than they are today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Dagen Bloom does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>High-quality bus service is the fastest route to rapid, comprehensive public transit in the United States. This country was once a leader in bus transit, and with adequate funding, it could be again.Nicholas Dagen Bloom, Professor of Urban Policy and Planning, Hunter CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978992023-01-17T19:02:58Z2023-01-17T19:02:58Z20 years ago, vast bushfires razed Canberra’s suburbs – and bushfire science was never the same<p>It has been 20 years to the day since bushfires burst out of the Brindabella Ranges and into the suburbs of our nation’s bush capital. Four lives were lost, many people were injured and more than 500 homes were destroyed.</p>
<p>There had been big bushfires before, and there were bigger bushfires to come, but the <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/canberra-bushfires">tragic day</a> in Canberra of January 18, 2003 marked a pivotal moment in Australian bushfire science. </p>
<p>Today, we know much more about how extreme bushfires behave, we have computer models to show where they might move to, and our communications and warnings have vastly improved. We have now had 20 years of a <a href="https://www.naturalhazards.com.au/">coordinated national research</a> effort on bushfire, and developing this science has made all Australians safer. </p>
<p>While even the best science doesn’t aim to eliminate fire from our land and there remains much to learn, as a country we are better placed to respond swiftly when a bushfire strikes. And crucially, we better understand risk – the Canberra fires showed even urban communities can be in danger if close enough to the bush. </p>
<h2>What happened?</h2>
<p>The Canberra bushfire led to two major inquiries: <a href="https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/functions/publications/archived/mcleod_inquiry/report">a government inquiry</a> led by former federal ombudsman Ron McLeod, and a <a href="https://www.courts.act.gov.au/magistrates/about-the-courts/coroners-court/act-coroners-court-2003-bushfire#:%7E:text=Under%20the%20provisions%20of%20the,who%20died%20in%20the%20fires">coronial inquiry</a>. </p>
<p>Both identified shortcomings in the speed of the emergency response, and made a wide range recommendations on reducing fuel loads, training personnel, and the need to better warn the public.</p>
<p>The fires started in the New South Wales high country more than a week before they hit Canberra. What we remember today as an urban bushfire was, for many days, several bushfires in a heavily forested landscape. Bushfire authorities quickly realised that the science behind fire ignition, propagation and suppression in such remote areas needed to improve. </p>
<p>Over time this encouraged a more fulsome, year-round approach to land management, including regular prescribed burning and an acknowledgement of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-in-arnhem-land-reveals-why-institutional-fire-management-is-inferior-to-cultural-burning-184562">vital role</a> of Indigenous people in <a href="https://theconversation.com/caring-for-country-means-tackling-the-climate-crisis-with-indigenous-leadership-3-things-the-new-government-must-do-183987">caring for Country</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/caring-for-country-means-tackling-the-climate-crisis-with-indigenous-leadership-3-things-the-new-government-must-do-183987">Caring for Country means tackling the climate crisis with Indigenous leadership: 3 things the new government must do</a>
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<h2>Understanding fire thunderstorms</h2>
<p>In the ACT’s mountainous terrain, the wind causes extreme bushfires to rapidly intensify and change direction dramatically. In fact, the Canberra bushfire led to Australia’s <a href="https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-012-0443-7">first documented fire tornado</a>, which wreaked severe destruction over pine plantations and in the suburbs of Chapman and Kambah. </p>
<p>Today, scientists have a far better grasp on the atmospheric conditions that can lead to <a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">fire-generated thunderstorms</a> and when they are likely. Known as “pyrocumulonimbus”, these thunderstorms can dramatically increase a bushfire’s size and strength, change local wind direction causing fire to spread, and generate lightning that starts ember storms and other fires.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
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<p>The unprecedented behaviour of the Canberra fires helped improve scientists’ understanding of how extreme bushfires behave and how they interact with the weather and the landscape. This has influenced bushfire <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/casestudy/phoenixrapidfire">behaviour modelling</a>, which is now critical to firefighting and warnings, and has saved lives.</p>
<p>In the last 20 years, many more bushfires have generated thunderstorms. Notable examples include the <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-black-saturday-victoria-2009/">2009 Black Saturday bushfires</a> in Victoria, the <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/es17007">2016 Waroona bushfire</a> in Western Australia, the <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-sir-ivan-2017/">2017 Sir Ivan bushfire</a> in NSW and multiple bushfires during the devastating 2019-20 season. </p>
<p>Experts now keep a watchful eye on conditions that may lead to their formation so they can better position resources and warn communities. </p>
<h2>When bushfire strikes suburbia</h2>
<p>The Canberra bushfires razed suburban areas such as Duffy, Holder, Weston, Chapman, Rivett and Kambah. It again showed the rest of Australia that bushfires aren’t an issue relegated to rural areas. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/113940/summary.pdf">McLeod report found</a> the Canberra community “had not been sufficiently well prepared” to understand the bushfire threat as a consequence of situating the city in bushland. It called for a major program of community education.</p>
<p>Today, fire agencies run a range of <a href="https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare">community engagement programs</a>, showing people what their risk is and how to be as prepared as possible. </p>
<p>After the main fire front had passed, fire continued to jump from house to house. This was a major reason so many houses in Canberra were destroyed. <a href="https://www.bushfirecrc.com/projects/d11/building-and-occupant-protection">Research</a> since then led to a national update to construction requirements for building in high bushfire-risk areas.</p>
<p>Communications and warnings were widely criticised during the Canberra bushfire. For example, the Mcleod Report found some of the advice given to the community was “seriously inadequate” and confusing. <a href="https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/113940/summary.pdf">In particular</a>, it pointed to inconsistent advice from the police and the Emergency Services Bureau regarding when residents should evacuate.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-8131">Research conducted</a> after the 2003 fires informed the development of the <a href="https://www.australianwarningsystem.com.au/">Australian Warning System</a>. Today, <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/handbook-public-information-and-warnings/">the wording, structure and style</a> of all natural hazard warnings is no longer radically different across the country, but is a consistent three-level scaled warning system.</p>
<p>Still, improving warning systems <a href="https://theconversation.com/expectations-and-harsh-reality-why-bushfire-warnings-fail-53050">continue to be</a> a focal point after every emergency. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/expectations-and-harsh-reality-why-bushfire-warnings-fail-53050">Expectations and harsh reality: why bushfire warnings fail</a>
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<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Bushfire extremes will worsen in Australia as our climate warms. We are currently in our <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">third consecutive La Niña</a> cycle, which brings relatively cooler, wet weather to Australia – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/16/return-of-el-nino-will-cause-off-the-chart-temperature-rise-climate-crisis">but that will change</a>. </p>
<p>Our fire seasons <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">are lengthening</a> and the bad bushfire days are occurring <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">more often</a>. Bushfires won’t just happen in isolation, we may also be dealing with heatwaves, cyclones or floods in other parts of the country at the same time. </p>
<p>To adequately prepare Australia for these cascading, back-to-back hazards, we must transform the way we manage risk now. This involves better land use planning and mitigation by building in more appropriate places with less risk. <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-7705">Research is</a> integral to this. </p>
<p>We must continue to innovate with bushfire modelling, give experts the best training and tools they can have to keep us safe, and continue to improve warnings systems. Importantly, we must better integrate Indigenous knowledge and practices into bushfire management, and work more closely with Indigenous knowledge holders to <a href="https://www.naturalhazards.com.au/research/research-projects/cultural-land-management-research-and-governance-south-east-australia">strengthen partnerships</a>. </p>
<p>We have learnt a lot from the devastating Canberra bushfires of 2003. But as climate change brings bigger challenges, there is much more to learn. One would be a fool to think we can conquer nature, but we can learn how to better live with what it throws at us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gissing receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia. </span></em></p>The Canberra fires showed even urban communities can be in danger if close enough to the bush.Andrew Gissing, CEO, Natural Hazards Research Australia, Adjunct Fellow, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946282023-01-08T19:00:08Z2023-01-08T19:00:08ZRoad to nowhere: why the suburban cul-de-sac is an urban planning dead end<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501459/original/file-20221216-16-2kw7io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5375%2C3653&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cul-de-sac is a suburban trap. It’s virtually useless as a road, doesn’t support public transport, cycling or walking, and doesn’t work well as a play or gathering place. Its literal translation from the French is “bottom of a sack” – which sounds a lot less glamorous, you’ll agree.</p>
<p>And yet we persist with them. The calls for more housing that resonate across many urban societies almost always include plans to repurpose broad swathes of agricultural land into single-family housing serviced by twisting strands of cul-de-sac-capped roads. </p>
<p>But there is a danger in embracing this type of development. Despite the French name, the cul-de-sac as it exists today is not even from Europe. Like many modern transport nightmares, it originated in the car-oriented suburban planning of 1950s America, a defence against the <a href="https://www.archio.co.uk/blog/2015/12/01/cul-de-sac-desirable-enclave-or-dead-end/">perceived threat of the inner city</a>.</p>
<p>Cul-de-sacs were envisioned initially as <a href="https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=cplan_papers">small offshoots from more traditional grid roads</a>. They eventually morphed into isolated loops at the end of curvilinear patterns where only residents of the suburb would travel. They are the antithesis of connectivity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501465/original/file-20221216-11243-vt001y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Developers favour cul-de-sacs partly because they allow for building more single-family houses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>A developer’s dream</h2>
<p>In pushing the cul-de-sac, land and housing developers were merely continuing with a misguided notion that began with suburbs in general: those endless landscapes of single-family homes on large sections were promoted as a way to re-engage with the community and escape the rat race of city living. </p>
<p>But studies have shown residents of suburbs have much <a href="https://www.tesd.net/cms/lib/PA01001259/Centricity/Domain/1114/BowlingAlone.pdf">lower rates of civic engagement</a> than those living in a more urban environment.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-cars-alone-wont-save-the-planet-well-need-to-design-cities-so-people-can-walk-and-cycle-safely-171818">Electric cars alone won’t save the planet. We'll need to design cities so people can walk and cycle safely</a>
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<p>Developers told us cul-de-sacs were more efficient because they allowed higher densities. While not entirely a lie, it isn’t the whole truth either. Developers favour cul-de-sacs partly because they allow for building <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5455743">more single-family houses</a> on oddly shaped land or closer to natural features than would otherwise be possible with a grid. Cul-de-sac suburbs often completely ignore topography or nature in their development.</p>
<p>Developers also favour cul-de-sacs because they require up to <a href="https://www.accessmagazine.org/spring-2004/reconsidering-cul-de-sac/">50% less road</a>, fewer pipes, streetlights and footpaths compared to traditional grid street patterns. </p>
<p>Snaking, disconnected cul-de-sac streetscapes mean less road to construct compared to a well-connected grid with more complex street hierarchies. But that also means fewer kilometres of footpaths, bike lanes and through-streets for public transport.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501466/original/file-20221216-17105-4lk7i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The very nature of cul-de-sacs means residents often require a car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Costly and impractical</h2>
<p>Suburban single-family housing on “greenfield” development is cheap to build and has a high profit margin. Unfortunately, disconnected, car-centric, large-home suburbs result in higher per capita infrastructure costs, vehicle ownership and travel time costs, and higher overall purchase prices. And the real cost of suburban living is met by <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/10/18/why-your-sprawling-low-density-suburb-may-be-costing-your-local-government-money/">governments, councils and residents</a>. </p>
<p>True, people are often attracted to cul-de-sacs because they’re seen as having minimal traffic. Ironically, the very nature of cul-de-sacs means residents <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-09-19/the-problem-with-cul-de-sac-design">often require a car</a> as their primary mode of transport. People searching for a refuge from the noise, pollution and danger of cars have backed themselves – literally – into a corner.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/triumph-of-the-mall-how-victor-gruens-grand-urban-vision-became-our-suburban-shopping-reality-172393">Triumph of the mall: how Victor Gruen’s grand urban vision became our suburban shopping reality</a>
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<p>The isolated and circuitous nature of cul-de-sac suburbs means there is often no access to public transportation. And active modes like walking, cycling and scooting are impractical. A lack of alternatives to the car means suburban residents have higher rates of car ownership – an added expense inner-city residents often don’t face.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, children might be only a few streets away from their friends, but in a jumble of winding roads and dead ends it’s <a href="https://hbr.org/2010/05/back-to-the-city">virtually impossible</a> to walk or cycle quickly to each other’s houses. Even that time-honoured rite of passage – walking alone to school – is impractical in this type of development.</p>
<p>Because these winding roads without any obvious focal point also often have low traffic volumes, they can’t support land uses other than low-density residences. As a result, even grabbing milk and bread from the dairy can involve a trip of several kilometres.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-planning-is-now-on-the-front-line-of-the-climate-crisis-this-is-what-it-means-for-our-cities-and-towns-193452">Urban planning is now on the front line of the climate crisis. This is what it means for our cities and towns</a>
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<h2>No exit</h2>
<p>Compared to the straight lines of traditional developments, the curvilinear roads that sweep through modern subdivisions might seem relaxing, even pastoral. But lurking around every curve is a hidden danger. </p>
<p>Lines of sight are significantly reduced, making every car backing out of its driveway a <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2011/06/07/cul-de-sacs-are-killing-us-public-safety-lessons-from-suburbia/">risk for other motorists</a>. For pedestrians and people on bikes, this lack of visibility presents a significant danger.</p>
<p>New developments also tend to have wider streets and fewer intersections, encouraging faster driving. Higher speeds and lower visibility can be a deadly combination. Studies have shown fatal car crashes are <a href="https://link-springer-com.ezproxy.auckland.ac.nz/article/10.1057/udi.2009.31">270% more likely</a> in newer, cul-de-sac-laden developments compared to older traditional neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>All in all, giving something a French name might make it sound classy, but a cul-de-sac is really just a dead end. And that’s exactly what cul-de-sac subdivisions are, too – an urban planning dead end.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Developers love the cul-de-sac, but for the rest of us it’s one of the least practical and efficient ways to design streets.Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969262022-12-26T16:28:12Z2022-12-26T16:28:12ZHomes that survived the Marshall Fire 1 year ago harbored another disaster inside – here’s what we’ve learned about this insidious urban wildfire risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502431/original/file-20221221-26-1amzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C4576%2C2918&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homes that survived the Marshall Fire didn't come through unscathed.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thornton-firefighter-checks-a-hot-spot-in-the-remains-of-a-news-photo/1370768947">Matthew Jonas/MediaNews Group/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of a collaboration with <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/">Boulder Reporting Lab</a>, The <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/cej/">Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder</a>, <a href="https://www.kunc.org/">KUNC</a> public radio and <a href="https://theconversation.com/us">The Conversation U.S.</a> to explore the impacts of the devastating Marshall Fire one year after the blaze. The series can be found at the <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/category/no-return-marshall-fire">Boulder Reporting Lab</a>.</em></p>
<p>On Dec. 30, 2021, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610995/fires-outside-of-denver-were-the-most-destructive-in-colorado-history">one of the most destructive wildfires</a> on record in Colorado swept through neighborhoods just a few miles from our offices at the University of Colorado Boulder. The flames <a href="https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/wildfire/1084-homes-destroyed-marshall-fire/73-5fc58914-54ae-4eb2-a368-4a88e6535c5f">destroyed over 1,000 buildings</a>, yet when we drove through the affected neighborhoods, some houses were still completely intact right next to homes where nothing was left to burn.</p>
<p>Although the people who lived in these still-standing homes were spared the loss of everything they owned, when they returned after the fire, <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/2022/12/06/no-return-the-unseen-toll-of-the-marshall-fires-standing-home-survivors/">they found another disaster</a>.</p>
<p>Noxious smells and ash on their windowsills and doorways initially made their homes unlivable – and potentially hazardous to human health. Some of these residents were still reporting health problems from being in their homes months later, even after the homes had been cleaned.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man uses a garden hose to try to put out flames in the yard of a home. Smoke rises from the ground about 10 feet from the house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People tried to save houses as the wildfire hopscotched through neighborhoods in Superior and Louisville, Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/good-samaritan-tries-to-put-out-fire-around-a-house-near-news-photo/1362040437">Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We study wildfires and their <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4Y8BuqsAAAAJ&hl=en">health effects</a>, and we knew people who lost their homes in the Marshall Fire. We also knew we had to act fast to study the fire’s impact so lessons from the Marshall Fire could help homeowners elsewhere avoid similar hazards in the future.</p>
<h2>Dangerous chemicals absorbed into homes</h2>
<p>Early on, because of our expertise on air quality and health, members of our community reached out to us to ask how they could remediate their homes from the smells and hidden ash, and what health risks they should be concerned about.</p>
<p>But this fire was nothing like the wildfires that our research groups at the University of Colorado had previously studied. Most of what burned on that day was human-made rather than vegetation. When human-made materials like electronics, vehicles and home furnishings burn, they <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26460/the-chemistry-of-fires-at-the-wildland-urban-interface">release different types of air pollutants</a> and may affect health differently compared to when vegetation burns.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="All that remains of a house is its satellite dish and air conditioner on an ashy lot. Other homes are still standing in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In many of the homes, everything burned – wallboard, siding, asphalt shingles, electronics and even vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/satellite-dish-stands-nears-the-remains-of-the-wildflower-news-photo/1237485825">Marc Piscotty/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The outdoor air pollution was less of an issue because the wildfire was short-lived – the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/bou/HighWinds12_30_2021">powerful winds that fueled the fire</a> quieted down and changed direction about 11 hours after the fire started, and the <a href="https://kdvr.com/news/local/photos-marshall-fire/">first snow of the season</a> finally fell. This snowfall ended the fire and cleaned the outside air of pollution.</p>
<p>The key concern was what chemicals lingered inside the undestroyed homes – soaked up into the fabrics of carpets, sofas, drywall, air vents and more – that would slowly release into the home for some time after the fire.</p>
<p>We hypothesized that there were lots of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) – toxic gases, which were emitted during the fire that had seeped into homes and become embedded in the fabrics and building materials. Of particular concern were aromatic compounds like <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147020451730832X?via%3Dihub">benzene, a known carcinogen</a>, and <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/9789289056533">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a> (PAHs), which are emitted from wildfires and have known health effects. In addition, we were worried about metals in the ash and soot deposited in homes, and the potential for it to become suspended in the air again when people returned and heating systems came on.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of several streets with a lake in the background. Several homes are still standing among many others that were reduced to ashes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In several neighborhoods, the fire left homes standing next door to burned structures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-burned-homes-sit-in-a-neighborhood-news-photo/1237535531">Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite knowing that some of these gases were toxic, we did not know the levels inside the homes, or what remediation efforts to suggest to residents, because little scientific research had been published on <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/wui/what-is-the-wui.html">wildland-urban interface</a> <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c07015">fires like this one</a>. We realized that we needed to do some of that research to help our own community – and the next community affected by a wildland-urban interface fire.</p>
<h2>Collecting evidence inside</h2>
<p>Many community members volunteered their homes for study sites. When we toured these still-standing homes 10 days after the fire, we saw what a rapid evacuation looks like, with lunch in the process of being made, laundry being folded, toys in the middle of pretend play … and dust, lots and lots of dust resulting from the fire.</p>
<p>We collected dust samples in about a dozen homes and then analyzed the samples in our labs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire ash and dust entered homes under doors and around windows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Joost de Gouw</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We looked for molecules that could help us think about the origin of the dust. Not surprisingly, the dust was a combination of windblown soil, ash from the fire and typical household dust. That ash was high in typical combustion byproducts that are known to be toxic, and there was lots of ash, so cleaning up all the dust was important to remediation.</p>
<p>The homes that had been exposed to heavy smoke also still smelled like a chemical fire. A colleague likened it to the smell of gunpowder.</p>
<p>As quickly as we could, we moved a state-of-the-art mass spectrometer into one of the most heavily affected homes in Superior and made measurements of airborne pollutants for five weeks.</p>
<p>Shortly after the Marshall Fire, we found that many pollutants, including PAHs, were indeed at higher levels inside smoke-affected homes than we would expect, but in early February these pollutants had decreased to more normal levels.</p>
<p>We researched ways in which people could protect themselves and found through experiments that air filters with activated carbon could provide excellent temporary relief from the indoor pollutants. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart shows benzene levels in a smoke-infiltrated home decreased when an air cleaner with a carbon-activated filter was running, but then rose again when the air cleaner was turned off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joost de Gouw</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also observed the results of professional remediation efforts. We are still poring over the air pollution data to understand which materials that burned, such as plastics, car tires, furniture, carpet and roofing material, contributed the most to the air pollutants we observed in the homes.</p>
<h2>Continuing health effects</h2>
<p>In addition to the air pollution and ash concerns, people living in the neighborhoods that burned are concerned about their health.</p>
<p>In an initial survey, residents reported a variety of symptoms that they think may be due to the smoke or air quality concerns of the fire, with the most common being itchy or watery eyes, headaches, dry cough and sore throat. More than half of respondents also reported disrupted sleep due to the stress of the fire, and almost a quarter attributed headaches at least in part to the stress of the event. </p>
<p>The physical symptoms could be due to the exposure during the fire. However, of those who have moved back into smoke-damaged homes, they report the symptoms most often inside their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a young girl on her hip as she talks with firefighters who are sitting in a truck with " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Firefighters and residents who returned to still-standing homes were exposed to smoke and gases from the fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kennedy-reynolds-of-erie-colorado-holds-her-daughter-belle-news-photo/1237485835">Marc Piscotty/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This fall, more than nine months after the fire, some residents reported rashes and burning sensations despite having cleaned their homes of ash and the smell of VOCs having dissipated. Another round of surveys is now helping gather more information about lingering symptoms. In addition to physical health symptoms, we are also asking questions about mental health, which is a growing concern from so-called natural disasters. </p>
<p>While we know that the VOC concentrations inside the homes that we worked in have returned to normal levels, some individuals may be more sensitive than others. And while there has been research into the health effects of some VOCs, <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/128169/e94535.pdf">not all have been studied extensively</a>, nor have studies looked at the health impacts of combinations of VOCs. </p>
<p>As global temperatures rise and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1718850115">more people move into</a> once-wild landscapes at the edges of cities, the <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_WILDFIRES_Sep2020.pdf">risk of wildfires spreading into urban areas rises</a>. We hope that our work can help people deal with the air pollution aftermath of future blazes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colleen E. Reid received funding for this work from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, the National Science Foundation, and the Harvard JPB Environmental Health Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joost de Gouw used funding from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, the National Science Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation for this work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hannigan receives funding for this work from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Noxious smells and blowing ash initially made the homes unlivable. But even after their homes were cleaned, some residents still reported health effects months later.Colleen E. Reid, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of Colorado BoulderJoost de Gouw, Professor of Chemistry, University of Colorado BoulderMichael Hannigan, Professor, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1872612022-07-29T01:28:59Z2022-07-29T01:28:59ZGreening the greyfields: how to renew our suburbs for more liveable, net-zero cities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475830/original/file-20220725-15-34dix1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2665%2C1782&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-6238-6">Greening the Greyfields</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Our ageing cities are badly in need of regeneration. Many established residential areas, the “greyfields”, are becoming physically, technologically and environmentally obsolete. They are typically located in low-density, car-dependent middle suburbs developed in the mid to late 20th century. </p>
<p>Compared to the outer suburbs, these middle suburbs are rich in services, amenities and jobs. But the greyfields also represent economically outdated, failing or undercapitalised real-estate assets. Their location has made them the focus of suburban backyard infill development.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the current approach typically cuts down all the trees and creates more car traffic as resident numbers grow. A new kind of urban regeneration is needed at the scale of precincts, rather than lot by lot, to transform the greyfields into more liveable and sustainable suburbs. It calls for a collaborative approach by federal, state and local governments.</p>
<h2>How do we do this?</h2>
<p>Our free new e-book, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-6238-6">Greening the Greyfields</a>, sets out how to do this. It draws on ten years of research that led to a new model of urban development.</p>
<p>This approach integrates two goals of urban research: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>ending the dependence on cars caused by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/unlocking-the-greyfields-to-inhibit-urban-sprawl-7748">disconnect between land use and transport</a></p></li>
<li><p>accelerating the supply of more sustainable, medium-density, infill housing to replace the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-city-policy-to-protect-the-brisbane-backyard-is-failing-150173">dysfunctional model</a> of urban regeneration. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Greening greyfields will help our cities <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-cities-policies-are-seriously-inadequate-for-tackling-the-climate-crisis-182769">make the transition</a> to <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-050120-113117">net zero</a> emissions.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-cities-policies-are-seriously-inadequate-for-tackling-the-climate-crisis-182769">Australia's cities policies are seriously inadequate for tackling the climate crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why do we need to regenerate these areas?</h2>
<p>We need to shrink the unsustainable urban and ecological footprints of “suburban” cities. Neighbourhoods need to become more resilient, sustainable, liveable and equitable for their residents. </p>
<p>Urban regeneration must also allow for the COVID-driven restructuring of the work–residence relationship for city residents. This involves relocalising urban places so they become more self-sufficient as “<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-at-a-fork-in-the-road-do-we-choose-neighbourhoods-to-live-work-and-play-in-138949">20-minute neighbourhoods</a>”. Their residents will have access to most of the services they need via low-emission cycling and walking, as well as public transport.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Current attempts to increase residential density and limit sprawl in most Australian cities tend to focus on blanket upzoning in selected growth zones. The resulting backyard infill involves a few small homes, which is all that is allowed on each block. Density increases only marginally, so there are still too few housing options for residents who want to be close to city services and opportunities. </p>
<p>Piecemeal infill redevelopment often degrades the quality of our suburbs. The loss of trees and increase in hard surfaces worsen urban heat island effects and flood risk. And a lack of convenient transport options for the extra residents reinforces car dependence.</p>
<p>We need more strategic models of suburban regeneration. </p>
<h1>Greyfield regeneration compared to conventional approaches</h1>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing key elements of original greenfield development, conventional redevelopment and green redevelopment of a greyfield precinct" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475818/original/file-20220725-16-wl1q7b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-6238-6">Greening the Greyfields</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-at-a-fork-in-the-road-do-we-choose-neighbourhoods-to-live-work-and-play-in-138949">We're at a fork in the road: do we choose neighbourhoods to live, work and play in?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why do this at the precinct scale?</h2>
<p>Urban regeneration is best tackled at the scale of precincts. They are the building blocks of cities: greenfield sites continue to be developed, and old brownfield industrial sites are redeveloped, at this scale. </p>
<p>Design-led precinct-scale regeneration can maximise co-ordination of aspects of urban living neglected by piecemeal lot-by-lot redevelopment. Think local health and education services, small shops, social housing, walkable open space, public transport and even <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/6/3/47">regenerated biodiversity</a>.</p>
<p>Model precincts like WGV, in a greyfields suburb of Fremantle, have very <a href="https://www.cogitatiopress.com/urbanplanning/article/view/1245">successfully demonstrated</a> how regeneration can produce high-quality, medium-density housing and net-zero outcomes. However, this development was on an old school site, so there was no need to combine individual blocks into a precinct-scale site. There were also no residents that needed to be engaged – though WGV became very popular because of its <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105461">attractive architecture and treed green spaces</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of ?" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475819/original/file-20220725-15-rvtlo3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">WGV in Fremantle is a model project for precinct-scale greening of the greyfields.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are the key elements of this model?</h2>
<p>Greyfield precinct regeneration has two sub-models: place-activated and transit-activated. A place-activated precinct may shorten travel distances for residents by providing services and amenities, but does not in itself increase public transport. For transit-activated precincts, good public transport increases land values, which makes these regenerated greyfields even more attractive.</p>
<p>Mid-tier transit like <a href="https://sbenrc.com.au/app/uploads/2018/10/TRACKLESS-TRAMS-MANUAL-GUIDE_email.pdf">trackless trams</a> is an ideal way to enable precinct developments along main road corridors. <a href="https://sbenrc.com.au/research-programs/1-74/">Local governments</a> are recognising this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S66dMwdhkII">around Australia</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/S66dMwdhkII?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of trackless tram projects around Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greyfield regeneration can begin with a strategy of district greenlining. Redlining was an American planning tool to exclude people of colour from a neighbourhood. Greenlining is the opposite: it includes the whole community in greening their neighbourhood. </p>
<p>This strategic process would identify neighbourhoods in need of next-generation infrastructure. Projects of this sort require a precinct-scale vision and plan. </p>
<p>State and municipal agencies can do this work. It would include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>physical infrastructure – energy, water, waste and transport</p></li>
<li><p>social infrastructure – health and education</p></li>
<li><p>green infrastructure – the nature-based services we get from planting and retaining trees and enabling open space and landscaped streets. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The <a href="https://ehq-production-australia.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/576da98716d547f3645c3ba4252f0b428af60901/original/1611791908/Maroondah_C134maro_RINGWOOD_GREYFIELD_PRECINCT_DEVELOPMENT_CONTRIBUTIONS_PLAN_15_MAY_2019.pdf_26fd411cf56644aba20c32ba39d958ec?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIBJCUKKD4ZO4WUUA/20220713/ap-southeast-2/s3/aws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20220713T044117Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=4bc9b6839caad14a01a1168e7dd148a6ba44da922e1686666ca6194858229dba">City of Maroondah</a> in Victoria provided an early demonstration of how this can happen. It produced a set of <a href="https://greyfields.com.au/">playbooks</a> to show how other municipalities, developers and land owners can replicate the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing key features of greyfields regeneration of a precinct" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475821/original/file-20220725-17-slro76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=734&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Redevelopment additions for a precinct undergoing greyfields regeneration in the City of Maroondah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://yoursay.maroondah.vic.gov.au/c134maro-ringwood">Greening the Greyfields/City of Maroondah</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greening the greyfields will deliver the many benefits associated with more sustainable and liveable communities. However, these outcomes depend on more comprehensive, design-led, integrated land use and transport planning.</p>
<p>Property owners, councils, developers and financiers will have to work together much more closely and effectively than happens with the business-as-usual approach of fragmented, small-lot infill, which is failing dismally. New laws and regulations will be needed to change this approach.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-city-policy-to-protect-the-brisbane-backyard-is-failing-150173">Why city policy to 'protect the Brisbane backyard' is failing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Better Cities 2.0?</h2>
<p>Precinct-based projects offer a model for <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/net-zero-will-require-the-biggest-economic-transformation-ever-seen-in-peacetime-says-nicholas-stern/#:%7E:text=The%2520pursuit%2520of%2520net%2520zero,The%2520Economics%2520of%2520Climate%2520Change%253A">net zero development</a> of our cities.</p>
<p>Greyfield regeneration is an increasingly pervasive and pressing challenge for our cities. It calls for all levels of government to work on a strategic response. </p>
<p>We suggest a Better Cities 2.0 program, led by the federal government, to establish greyfield precinct regeneration authorities in major cities and build partnerships with all major urban stakeholders. It would set us on the path to greening the greyfields.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman receives funding from the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre. Peter is a Co-ordinating Lead Author for Transport in the IPCC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giles Thomson receives funding from KK-stiftesen, Sweden; and has received funding from the CRC for Low Carbon Living, and the Sustainable Built Environment national research centre (SBEnrc). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newton has received funding from AHURI, CRC for Spatial Information, CRC for Low Carbon Living and the federal Smart Cities and Suburbs Program for Greening the Greyfields research project </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Glackin received funding from Cooperative Research Centers for Spatial Information and Low Carbon Living (CRCSI, CRCLCL). </span></em></p>Ad hoc, lot-by-lot efforts to house more people in our ageing suburbs are failing to increase liveability and sustainability. Our cities need strategic, precinct-scale regeneration.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityGiles Thomson, Senior Lecturer, Department of Strategic Sustainable Development, Blekinge Institute of TechnologyPeter Newton, Emeritus Professor in Sustainable Urbanism, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyStephen Glackin, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1670222021-09-29T12:21:23Z2021-09-29T12:21:23ZWalt Disney’s radical vision for a new kind of city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423385/original/file-20210927-27-ue9qk1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C22%2C3030%2C1971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Epcot theme park that was eventually built diverged from Walt Disney's plans for his 'community of tomorrow.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/walt-disney-celebrates-the-25-years-in-united-states-in-news-photo/110135192?adppopup=true">Chip Hires/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since Epcot’s inception, millions of tourists have descended upon the theme park famous for its Spaceship Earth geodesic sphere and its celebration of international cultures. </p>
<p>But the version of Epcot visitors encounter at Disney World – which celebrated its <a href="https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/50th-anniversary/">50th anniversary in 2021</a> – is hardly what Walt Disney imagined. </p>
<p>In 1966, Disney announced his intention to build Epcot, an acronym for “Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow.” It was to be no mere theme park but, as Disney put it, “the creation of a living blueprint for the future” unlike “anyplace else in the world” – an entire new city built from scratch.</p>
<p>Disney died later that year; his vision was scaled down, and then scrapped altogether. But when I was writing <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674987999&content=bios">my book on urban idealism in America</a>, I was drawn to this planned community.</p>
<p>Since the arrival of the first colonists, Americans have experimented with new patterns of settlement. Imagining new kinds of places to live is an American tradition, and Disney was an eager participant.</p>
<h2>A city of the future</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLCHg9mUBag">A captivating 25-minute film</a> produced by Walt Disney Enterprises remains the best window into Walt’s vision. </p>
<p>In it, Disney – speaking kindly and slowly, as if to a group of children – detailed what would become of the 27,400 acres, or 43 square miles, of central Florida that he had acquired. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/jefferson/jeffwest.html">Echoing the rhetoric of American pioneers</a>, he noted how the abundance of land was the key. Here he would achieve all that could not be done at Disneyland, his first theme park in Anaheim, California, that opened in 1955 and had since been encroached upon by rapid suburban development. He proudly pointed out that the land on which Disney World would be built was twice the size of the island of Manhattan and five times larger than Disneyland’s Magic Kingdom. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sLCHg9mUBag?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Walt Disney announces his ambitious vision for Disney World and Epcot.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among the remarkable components of Disney’s Epcot would be a community of 20,000 residents living in neighborhoods that would double as a showcase of industrial and civic ingenuity – a running experiment in planning, building design, management and governance. There would be a 1,000-acre office park for developing new technologies, and when, say, an innovation in refrigerator design would be developed, every household in Epcot would be the first to receive and test the product before it was released for the rest of the world.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Drawing of hotel surrounded by businesses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=725&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423424/original/file-20210927-23-1np73gr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A concept sketch of the hotel that would greet visitors to Epcot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPCOT_(concept)#/media/File:EPCOT_concept_drawing.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An airport would enable anyone to fly directly to Disney World, while a “vacation land” would provide resort accommodations for visitors. A central arrival complex included a 30-story hotel and convention center, with the downtown featuring a weather-protected zone of themed shops. </p>
<p>Epcot’s more modest wage-earners would be able to live nearby in a ring of high-rise apartment buildings. And there would be a park belt and recreational zone surrounding this downtown area, separating the low-density, cul-de-sac neighborhoods beyond that would house the majority of residents. There would be no unemployment, and it was not to be a retirement community. </p>
<p>“I don’t believe there is a challenge anywhere in the world that’s more important to people everywhere than finding solutions to the problems of our cities,” Disney said.</p>
<h2>‘New Towns’ abound</h2>
<p>During the 1960s, the aspiration of building anew was much in the air. </p>
<p>Americans were becoming increasingly concerned about <a href="https://www.pbs.org/johngardner/chapters/5b.html">the well-being of the nation’s cities</a>. And they were unsatisfied with the effort – and, especially, <a href="https://archive.curbed.com/2019/10/16/20915450/urban-renewal-mass-design-group-fringe-cities">the consequences</a> – of <a href="https://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/renewal/#view=0/0/1&viz=cartogram">urban renewal</a>.</p>
<p>They felt insecure in the face of growing <a href="https://www.whatworksforamerica.org/ideas/our-history-with-concentrated-poverty/">urban poverty</a>, <a href="https://scholars.org/contribution/how-us-urban-unrest-1960s-can-help-make-sense-ferguson-missouri-and-other-recent">unrest</a> and crime, and frustrated about increasing traffic congestion. Families continued <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/07/white-flight-alive-and-well/399980/">to move to the suburbs</a>, but planners, opinion leaders and even ordinary citizens raised concerns about consuming so much land for low-density development.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/the-characteristics-causes-and-consequences-of-sprawling-103014747/">Sprawl as a pejorative term</a> for poorly planned development was gaining currency as a fledgling environmental movement emerged. In his popular 1960s ballad “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-sQSp5jbSQ">Little Boxes</a>,” Pete Seeger sang of “Little boxes on the hillside / Little boxes made of ticky tacky” to criticize the uniform suburban and exurban tracts of housing rippling out from America’s cities. </p>
<p>A hope emerged that building new towns might be an alternative for unlovely and unloved city neighborhoods and for soulless peripheral subdivisions. </p>
<p>Self-described “town founders,” most of them wealthy businesspeople with ideals dependent on real estate success, led America’s <a href="https://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre1968110600">New Towns movement</a>. As Disney was preparing for his Epcot presentation, the <a href="https://special.lib.uci.edu/collections/anteater-chronicles/community/the-irvine-company">Irvine Company</a> was already deep into the process of developing the holdings of the old Irvine Ranch into the model town of Irvine, California. Today, Irvine boasts <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/irvinecitycalifornia">nearly 300,000 residents</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cows graze on hill overlooking suburban development." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423417/original/file-20210927-23-w98tba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Irvine, Calif., was built on a ranch.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/RESIDENTIAL_DEVELOPMENT_IN_THE_IRVINE_RANCH_AREA_NEAR_NEWPORT_BEACH._THIS_DEVELOPMENT_IS_PART_OF_A_NEW_TOWN_OF_HIGH..._-_NARA_-_557436.jpg">U.S. National Archives and Records Administration</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, real estate entrepreneur <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/realestate/communities/robert-e-simon-jr-founder-of-reston-va-dies-at-101.html">Robert E. Simon</a> sold New York’s Carnegie Hall and, with his earnings, bought 6,700 acres of farmland outside of Washington <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/a-film-tells-the-history-of-reston-the-boundary-shattering-planned-va-town/2016/03/22/6e21ef90-f036-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html">so he could create Reston, Virginia</a>. Fifty miles away, shopping center developer <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/james-w-rouses-legacy-better-living-through-design-180951187/">James Rouse started planning Columbia, Maryland</a>. And oil industry investor George P. Mitchell, keeping an eye on the successes and setbacks of Rouse and Simon, <a href="https://houstonhistorymagazine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/The-Woodlands.pdf">would soon take advantage of a new federal funding program</a> and embark on establishing The Woodlands, near Houston, which today has a population of over 100,000 people.</p>
<p>These new towns hoped to incorporate the liveliness and diversity of cities while retaining the intimacy of neighborhoods and other charms associated with small towns.</p>
<h2>Disney’s dream today</h2>
<p>Disney, however, didn’t want to simply spruce up existing suburbs.</p>
<p>He wanted to upend preexisting notions of how a city could be built and run. And for all of its utopian promise, the genius of Disney’s Epcot was that it all seemed doable, an agglomeration of elements commonly found in any modern metropolitan area, but fused into a singular vision and managed by a single authority. </p>
<p>An important innovation was the banishing of the automobile. A vast underground system was designed to enable cars to arrive, park or buzz under the city without being seen. A separate underground layer would accommodate trucks and service functions. Residents and visitors would traverse the entire 12-mile length of Disney World and all of its attractions on a high-speed monorail, far more extensive than anything achieved at Disneyland. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.autolife.umd.umich.edu/Gender/Walsh/G_Overview3.htm">In the car-crazed America of the 1960s</a>, this was a truly radical idea.</p>
<p>Given Walt Disney’s legendary tenacity, it would have been fascinating to witness how far his vision would have advanced. After his death, some sought to fulfill his plans. But when urged by a Disney designer to carry through on Walt’s broader civic-minded vision, Walt’s brother Roy, who had taken the reins of the company, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674987999&content=bios">answered</a>, “Walt is dead.” </p>
<p>Today, Disney’s utopian spirit is alive and well. You see it in former Walmart executive Marc Lore’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/style/article/telosa-marc-lore-blake-ingels-new-city/index.html">ambitions to build a 5-million-person city called “Telosa” in a U.S. desert</a> and Blockchains LLC’s proposal for a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-nevada-desert-blockchains-llc-aims-to-be-its-own-municipal-government-01613252864">self-governing “smart city”</a> in Nevada. </p>
<p>But more often, you’ll see efforts that tap into the nostalgia of a bucolic past. The Disney Corporation did, in fact, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/celebration-florida-how-disneys-community-of-tomorrow-became-a-total-nightmare">develop a town during the 1990s</a> on one of its Florida landholdings.</p>
<p>Dubbed “Celebration,” it was initially heralded as an exemplar of the turn-of-the century movement called <a href="http://www.newurbanism.org/">New Urbanism</a>, which sought to design suburbs in ways that conjured up the small American town: walkable neighborhoods, a town center, a range of housing choices and less dependence on cars.</p>
<p>However, Celebration has no monorail or underground transport networks, no hubs of technological innovation or policies like universal employment.</p>
<p>That sort of city of tomorrow, it seems, will have to wait.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Krieger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Imagining new kinds of places to live is an American tradition.Alex Krieger, Research Professor in Practice of Urban Design, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1554342021-03-22T19:00:12Z2021-03-22T19:00:12ZSo-called ‘good’ suburban schools often require trade-offs for Latino students<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390182/original/file-20210317-15-asqp9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2924%2C1955&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A majority of Americans – including people of color – live in suburbs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/students-get-pumped-up-during-the-power-california-early-news-photo/1058953822?adppopup=true">Mindy Schauer/Digital First Media/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans think of the suburbs as exclusive enclaves for white, middle-class people. Yet reality paints a different picture. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071312-145657">recent decades</a> suburbs across the country have rapidly become more socioeconomically, ethnically and racially diverse.</p>
<p>In fact, since <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071312-145657">2010</a> most people in the U.S. – including people of color – call suburbia home.</p>
<p>Pew Research Center notes that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">175 million people</a> live in suburban and small metropolitan areas, while 144 million live in either rural or urban counties. The Latino community has played a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/0504_census_ethnicity_frey.pdf">pivotal role</a> in spurring these changes.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jasH7sUAAAAJ&hl=en">educational researcher</a> who focuses on suburban-urban education, Latino education and racial inequality in schooling, I have interviewed Latino and Latina students about their experiences of belonging at suburban public high schools. Their reflections shine a light on how schools can better support these youth and other students of color.</p>
<h2>Opportunity gaps</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00131725.2017.1280755">One in four</a> public school students in the U.S. is Latino, with <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781475832822/Challenges-Facing-Suburban-Schools-Promising-Responses-to-Changing-Student-Populations">40%</a> of Latino students attending a suburban public school. Yet much of what researchers know about Latino students is based on urban schools.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01596306.2013.822619">broader research</a> on students of color attending suburban schools, however, highlights academic and social trade-offs they face. For example, students of color at predominantly white suburban schools must contend with <a href="https://www.johnbdiamond.com/uploads/6/5/0/7/65073833/american_behavioral_scientist_paper_opportunity_hoardingfinal_7-27-20.edited.pdf">opportunity hoarding</a> – when those with privileged backgrounds build upon their advantages by accumulating more of them. This takes shape, for example, when white parents push to get their children into high-level courses or hire private tutors.</p>
<p>While parents want what is best for their child, these actions <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/despite-the-best-intentions-9780195342727?cc=us&lang=en&">can expand inequality</a>, as not all families are able to navigate schools with the same confidence or ease as parents with racial and socioeconomic privilege. </p>
<p>This has led to Latino high school students being <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/academic-profiling">viewed as less capable</a> by peers and teachers, being <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/02/04/black-history-month-february-schools-ap-racism-civil-rights/2748790002/">excluded from honors classes</a> and enduring frequent <a href="https://doi.org/10.7709/jnegroeducation.83.3.0311">microaggressions</a>. </p>
<p>For example, Claudia, a Latina student at a racially diverse high school in a working-class community outside of Chicago, shared, “I wish people knew more about us beyond stereotypes.” She recalled peers saying, “Oh, you’re Latina? You don’t look like a Latina.” As Claudia noted, comments like that treat Latino students as a monolith.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="High school students pass each other in hallway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390437/original/file-20210318-21-vqlg0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For Latino students in mostly white schools, silence can be an act of resistance and survival.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/masked-students-walk-the-halls-between-classes-during-the-news-photo/1271388591?adppopup=true">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pressure to assimilate</h2>
<p>Another challenge that students I spoke with frequently cited was feeling like they had to downplay parts of their identities to fit in and succeed academically. </p>
<p>Research highlights that this is a result of teachers and school leaders trying to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/JEA-01-2018-0007">change or “fix</a>” Latino students and other students of color. Alternatively, schools could empower students to be proud of their cultures and home languages.</p>
<p>On the social front, Latino students often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10665684.2020.1758245">find refuge</a> with other Latino students. “I feel more comfortable with Latino students because I’m not competing with anyone,” said Michelle, who attended a predominantly white and well-funded school outside of Chicago. “It’s just easier to talk to them because they’re not gonna judge me ‘cause they know the things I’ve gone through.”</p>
<p>When students of color congregate with one another, teachers and administrators can struggle to understand <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/beverly-daniel-tatum/why-are-all-the-black-kids-sitting-together-in-the-cafeteria/9781541616585/">why they self-segregate</a>, often away from white students. However my research shows these decisions are often acts of self-perseverence and opportunities to be their authentic selves.</p>
<h2>Silenced by whiteness</h2>
<p>Roberto, a classmate of Michelle’s, spoke about how the whiteness of his school created moments where he silenced himself.</p>
<p>“Sometimes teachers would see someone who is quiet, someone who kept to himself,” he said. “But then at other times they would see someone who is intelligent, someone who speaks his own mind. Someone who does whatever he wants.”</p>
<p>Teachers may view silence as disengagement from learning, but for students like Roberto, being silent can be an act of resistance and survival. Being in a mostly white school was difficult, and he felt his perspectives were not always valued. </p>
<p>For example, he and other students in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15348431.2020.1796672">my research</a> spoke about teachers seeking to motivate them to do better academically but at the same time implying they were not trying hard enough.</p>
<p>Students like Roberto also wrestled with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.52.6.613">stereotype threat</a> – when negative stereotypes about their race, gender or other identity increases pressure on them to perform academically. Latino students spoke about having to represent their Latino community, and how making a mistake in class could confirm negative perceptions about them.</p>
<h2>‘We have hella stories’</h2>
<p>The young people I interviewed also spoke about moments they perceived to be treated differently than their white counterparts. As Mia put it, “Special treatment has to do with the power white students have.” </p>
<p>Mia’s experiences taught her that white students were valued and believed over Latino students. This is supported by <a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479803682/white-kids/">research</a>, which illustrates the power white students and families wield in schools. </p>
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<p>The students also wanted their peers and teachers to acknowledge their complex lives and ambitions. As a student named Claudia put it: “We have hella stories. I’m sorry to say, but we do.”</p>
<p>Samuel spoke about his teachers not understanding his need to work a job after school. “Teachers say you decide school or work,” he said. “Some get mad at us for not doing the [school]work and thinking we’re lazy.”</p>
<p>While there’s growing recognition of the importance of grit – the ability to persevere in difficult situations - <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02607476.2016.1215546">research finds</a> that Latino students and other students of color often already possess it, and educators should consider making things easier for them instead.</p>
<p>Many of the students highlighted their appreciation of their teachers’ efforts to support them academically and socially. In talking about one teacher, a student named Chris noted, “She really likes talking about what’s happening in the world right now. She even asks us about the school: ‘Do the teachers treat you right?’ I know that she cares about us.”</p>
<p>Listening to Latino students can guide teachers and policymakers on how to enact <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/00028312032003465">culturally relevant</a> practices that combat educational disparities and build upon young people’s cultural and linguistic assets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Rodriguez received funding to support some of the research he cited from the National Academy of Education/Spencer Dissertation Fellowship</span></em></p>US suburbs are rapidly diversifying, but students of color often face academic and social hurdles in suburban schools.Gabriel Rodriguez, Assistant Professor, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1547802021-03-12T13:44:07Z2021-03-12T13:44:07ZBillions of cicadas may be coming soon to trees near you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388943/original/file-20210311-13-1mlqvts.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C237%2C3381%2C1923&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Periodical cicada in Washington, D.C., May 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/V1MnUJ">Katha Schulz/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A big event in the insect world is approaching. Starting sometime in April or May, depending on latitude, one of the largest broods of 17-year cicadas will emerge from underground in a dozen states, from New York west to Illinois and <a href="http://www.magicicada.org/cooley/reprints/Cooley_ea_2009.pdf">south into northern Georgia</a>. This group is known as Brood X, as in the Roman numeral for 10. </p>
<p>For about four weeks, wooded and suburban areas will ring with cicadas’ whistling and buzzing mating calls. After mating, each female will lay hundreds of eggs in pencil-sized tree branches. </p>
<p>Then the adult cicadas will die. Once the eggs hatch, new cicada nymphs fall from the trees and burrow back underground, starting the cycle again. </p>
<p>There are perhaps 3,000 to 4,000 species of cicadas around the world, but the 13- and 17-year periodical cicadas of the eastern U.S. appear to be unique in combining long juvenile development times with synchronized, mass adult emergences.</p>
<p>These events raise many questions for entomologists and the public alike. What do cicadas do underground for 13 or 17 years? What do they eat? Why are their life cycles so long? Why are they synchronized? And is climate change affecting this wonder of the insect world? </p>
<p>We study periodical cicadas to understand questions about <a href="https://scholar.google.co.nz/citations?user=jSdi-YIAAAAJ&hl=en">biodiversity, biogeography</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aXo5yZYAAAAJ&hl=en">behavior and ecology</a> – the evolution, natural history and geographic distribution of life. We’ve learned many surprising things about these insects: For example, they can travel through time by changing their life cycles in four-year increments. It’s no accident that the scientific name for periodical 13- and 17-year cicadas is <em>Magicicada</em>, shortened from “magic cicada.” </p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/66688653" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video shows all stages in periodical cicadas’ life cycle.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Natural history</h2>
<p>As species, periodical cicadas are older than the forests that they inhabit. Molecular analysis has shown that about 4 million years ago, the ancestor of the current <em>Magicicada</em> species <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220060110">split into two lineages</a>. Some 1.5 million years later, one of those lineages split again. The resulting three lineages are the basis of the modern periodical cicada species groups, <a href="https://cicadas.uconn.edu/species/"><em>Decim, Cassini</em> and <em>Decula</em></a>.</p>
<p>Early American colonists first encountered periodical cicadas in Massachusetts. The sudden appearance of so many insects reminded them of biblical plagues of locusts, which are a type of grasshopper. That’s how the name “locust” became incorrectly associated with cicadas in North America.</p>
<p>During the 19th century, notable entomologists such as <a href="https://www.chicagobotanic.org/library/stories/walsh">Benjamin Walsh</a>, <a href="https://specialcollections.nal.usda.gov/guide-collections/charles-valentine-riley-collection">C.V. Riley</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Lester_Marlatt">Charles Marlatt</a> worked out the astonishing biology of periodical cicadas. They established that unlike locusts or other grasshoppers, cicadas don’t chew leaves, decimate crops or fly in swarms. </p>
<p>Instead, these insects spend most of their lives out of sight, growing underground and feeding on plant roots as they pass through five juvenile stages. Their synchronized emergences are predictable, occurring on a clockwork schedule of 17 years in the North and 13 years in the South and Mississippi Valley. There are multiple, regional year classes, known as broods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five nymphal stages of cicada development." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388604/original/file-20210309-23-2sxdfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The five stages of the periodical cicada underground juveniles. Between each stage the juvenile cicada molts so that it can become larger. Actual size of the fifth-stage nymph is 0.83 inches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Simon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Safety in numbers</h2>
<p>The key feature of <em>Magicicada</em> biology is that these insects emerge in huge numbers. This increases their chances of accomplishing their key mission aboveground: finding mates. </p>
<p>Dense emergences also provide what scientists call a predator-satiation defense. Any predator that feeds on cicadas, whether it’s a fox, squirrel, bat or bird, will eat its fill long before it consumes all of the insects in the area, leaving many survivors behind. </p>
<p>While periodical cicadas largely come out on schedule every 17 or 13 years, often a small group emerges four years early or late. Early-emerging cicadas may be faster-growing individuals who had access to abundant food, and the laggards may be individuals that subsisted with less. </p>
<p>If growing conditions change over time, having the ability to make this kind of life cycle switch and come out either four years early in favorable times or four years late in more difficult times becomes important. If a sudden warm or cold phase causes a large number of cicadas to make a one-time mistake and come out off-schedule by four years, the insects can emerge in sufficient numbers to satiate predators and shift to a new schedule. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of periodical cicada brood locations." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388896/original/file-20210310-16-4h22o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Broods of periodical cicadas, identified by Roman numerals, emerge on 13- or 17-year cycles across the eastern and midwestern U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cicadas.uconn.edu/broods/">University of Connecticut</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Census time for Brood X</h2>
<p>As glaciers retreated from what is now the U.S. some 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, periodical cicadas filled eastern forests. Temporary life cycle switching has formed a complex mosaic of broods. </p>
<p>Today there are 12 broods of 17-year periodical cicadas in northeastern deciduous forests, where trees drop leaves in winter. These groups are numbered sequentially and fit together like a giant jigsaw puzzle. In the Southeast and the Mississippi Valley there are three broods of 13-year cicadas. </p>
<p>Because periodical cicadas are sensitive to climate, the patterns of their broods and species reflect climatic shifts. For example, genetic and other data from our work indicate that the 13-year species <em>Magicicada neotredecim</em>, which is found in the upper Mississippi Valley, formed shortly after the last glaciation. As the environment warmed, 17-year cicadas in the area emerged successively, generation after generation, after 13 years underground until they were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0014-3820.2000.tb00564.x">permanently shifted to a 13-year cycle</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Female cicada depositing eggs on a branch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388627/original/file-20210309-17-1vnzl4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A member of Brood X laying eggs in 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Simon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it’s not clear whether cicadas can continue to evolve as quickly as humans alter their environment. Although periodical cicadas prefer forest edges and thrive in suburban areas, they cannot survive <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-curb-climate-change-we-need-to-protect-and-expand-us-forests-76380">deforestation</a> or reproduce in areas without trees. </p>
<p>Indeed, some broods have already become extinct. In the late 19th century, one brood (XXI) disappeared from north Florida and Georgia. Another (XI) has been extinct in northeast Connecticut since around 1954, and a third (VII) in upstate New York has shrunk from eight counties to one since mapping first began in the mid-1800s. </p>
<p>Climate change could also have far-reaching effects. As the U.S. climate warms, longer growing seasons may provide a larger food supply. This may eventually change more 17-year cicadas into 13-year cicadas, just as past warming <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/336237a0">altered <em>Magicicada neotredecim</em></a>. Large-scale early emergences occurred in 2017 in Cincinnati and the Baltimore-Washington metro area, and in 1969, 2003 and 2020 in the Chicago metro area – potential harbingers of this kind of change. </p>
<p>Researchers need detailed high-quality information to track cicada distributions over time. Citizen scientists play a key role in this effort because periodical cicada populations are so large and their adult emergences only last a few weeks. </p>
<p>Volunteers who want to help document Brood X’s emergence this spring can download the <a href="https://scistarter.org/cicada-safari">Cicada Safari mobile phone app</a>, provide snapshots and follow our research in real time online at <a href="https://www.cicadas.uconn.edu">www.cicadas.uconn.edu</a>. Don’t miss out – the next opportunity won’t come until <a href="https://cicadas.uconn.edu/broods/">Broods XIII and XIX emerge in 2024</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Cooley has received funding from the National Science Foundation and National Geographic.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Simon receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>One of the largest groups of 17-year cicadas, Brood X, last emerged from underground in 2004. The next generation will arrive starting in April.John Cooley, Assistant Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of ConnecticutChris Simon, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1499562020-11-30T17:14:56Z2020-11-30T17:14:56ZSuburbs are becoming increasingly diverse – urban development and the pandemic will transform them further<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371965/original/file-20201130-19-18uoy7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5319%2C3487&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Houston, Texas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/west-downtown-suburb-near-montrose-skyline-731207290">Roschetzky Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Historically, suburbs have been considered as places which are less diverse than cities, particularly with regard to their racial and social class composition. This is a result of many social and economic drivers influencing the development of city regions.</p>
<p>But suburban districts and towns surrounding metropolitan cities, from which people often commute into the central city for work, are changing. More people have been moving to the suburbs due to the increasing unaffordability of city centres. This makes suburbs more diverse in terms of class and race than they used to be. Now, changing patterns of urban development and the impact of COVID-19 look set to transform suburbs further.</p>
<h2>Changing profiles</h2>
<p>There are a range of historical factors behind the limited diversity in suburbs. The high price of suburban homes acted as a filter to facilitate class segregation. In the US, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/05/03/526655831/a-forgotten-history-of-how-the-u-s-government-segregated-america?t=1606393055135">redlining policies</a> established in the 1930s – which meant mortgages were unlikely to be approved in African-American neighbourhoods – facilitated racial segregation in urban areas. These policies resulted in the clustering of white middle class people in the suburbs.</p>
<p>While suburbs remain relatively less diverse than city centres, in the past two decades across the Global North, both central cities and outer suburbs have been going through <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-will-just-be-playgrounds-for-rich-if-poor-keep-being-pushed-to-suburbs-64708">significant change</a> in terms of which groups live where. People who now cannot afford to live in city centres due to rent hikes, as well as new immigrants, have been moving to the suburbs.</p>
<p>The idea that the traditional identity of suburbs is shifting as a result of social and economic change was raised by Donald Trump in the lead up to the US presidential elections.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1288509568578777088"}"></div></p>
<p>Trump characterised affordable housing built in the suburbs as a threat against what he called the “suburban lifestyle dream”, suggesting that there is no place for lower-income households or the working classes in the suburbs.</p>
<p>In fact, the suburbs did play a major role in the US election. Some <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-suburban-density-election">analyses</a> even claim that it was the suburbs that swung the result in favour of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden – pointing to demographic shifts as a key factor.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/american-suburbs-radically-changed-over-the-decades-and-so-have-their-politics-147731">American suburbs radically changed over the decades – and so have their politics</a>
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<p>The change in the suburbs has been driven by corresponding change in city centres. In the past 20 or so years, socio-economic and urbanisation patterns have transformed cities around the world. This includes high-density <a href="https://housingevidence.ac.uk/our-work/research-projects/high-rise-housing-as-sustainable-urban-intensification/">housing developments</a> springing up in central areas. For example, in <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/alex/benv/2018/00000043/00000004/art00004;jsessionid=5vh6ulk6m4mei.x-ic-live-03">London</a> many of the city’s central high-rise developments are now either entirely residential, or they include residential units in addition to commercial ones. </p>
<h2>Higher costs</h2>
<p>However, although the ratio of housing among the total units of development in city centres has been increasing, housing <a href="https://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/thefutureofcities/affordable-housing#the-chapter">affordability</a> has been <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lselondon/housing-affordability-has-worsened-for-many-as-incomes-stagnate/">decreasing</a>.</p>
<p>This phenomenon is not limited to just a few countries or cities. Urban unaffordability has been documented by the <a href="http://www.unhousingrapp.org/user/pages/04.resources/Thematic-Report-3-The-Financialization-of-Housing.pdf">United Nations</a> as a global problem. According to the <a href="https://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/thefutureofcities/affordable-housing#the-chapter">European Commission</a>, more than three-quarters of the urban dwellers living in metropolitan cities in Europe – including London, Paris, Stockholm and Dublin – think it is difficult to find quality housing at a reasonable price in their cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="High-rise apartment block" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/371967/original/file-20201130-21-8kjq30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">New city centre apartments in London, UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-september-9-2017-new-apartments-726962971">Ron Ellis/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>As a result of these changes to cities, people from lower-income groups have been pushed out of city centres in increasing numbers. They are moving to the more affordable suburbs, particularly those <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-will-just-be-playgrounds-for-rich-if-poor-keep-being-pushed-to-suburbs-64708">nearer to city centres</a>. The consequences for the suburbs and those who live in there are being increasingly documented, particularly in North America, where demographic change is racial as well as socio-economic.</p>
<p>A case study of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10511482.2003.9521480">San Francisco Bay area</a> conducted around ten years ago showed that some people with rent assistance vouchers chose to move to the suburbs rather than staying in the city centres. In <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1541-0064.2013.12055.x">Vancouver</a> low-income recent immigrants have been moving to the suburbs.</p>
<p>However, suburban living is not always better for poorer groups. It doesn’t guarantee access to amenities, such as neighbourhood parks, or to better services such as schools or public transport.</p>
<p>Some lower-income groups who have relocated to the suburbs are finding that just as they have begun to establish themselves, they are being displaced yet again. This can be the result of new developments in the suburbs, but also of regeneration activity designed specifically to renew those parts of the suburbs accessible to low-income groups.</p>
<p>We began to see this wave of secondary displacement prior to the pandemic, for example <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/redevelopment-plans-in-the-atlanta-suburb-of-marietta-have-echoes-of-urban-renewal">in US cities</a> such as Atlanta.</p>
<p>Now, changing working patterns fuelled by the pandemic, such as the increase in freelancing and home working, may change the suburbs further. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/15/renters-fleeing-inner-london-in-race-for-space-data-suggests">debate</a> is already emerging about whether the pandemic will lead the middle classes to leave city centre living behind.</p>
<p>Just as suburbs were becoming more diverse – and perhaps more interesting – they may yet revert and become just as homogenous, just as <a href="https://www.atlantastudies.org/2017/02/09/excluded-from-everybodys-neighborhood-constructing-sandy-springs-new-city-center/">socially, culturally and ethnically uniform</a> as before. Of course, the real victims of this transformation will be people earning low-incomes displaced yet again, and perhaps not for the final time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bilge Serin works at the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence which receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council and Joseph Rowntree Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>As a Co-Investigator with the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence, Annette Hastings receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council and Joseph Rowntree Foundation. </span></em></p>People who now cannot afford to live in city centres due to rent hikes, as well as new immigrants, have been moving to the suburbs.Bilge Serin, Research Associate in Urban Studies, University of GlasgowAnnette Hastings, Professor of Urban Studies, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492652020-11-05T18:01:29Z2020-11-05T18:01:29Z3 scholars explain Senate results in South Carolina, Iowa and Arizona - and what they say about voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367591/original/file-20201104-17-1gkhgrs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C26%2C3529%2C2602&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democrats needed to net three seats to win control of the Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/capitol-in-the-spring-in-washington-dc-royalty-free-image/1144173660?adppopup=true">L. Toshio Kishiyama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The past few election cycles have seen notable geographical shifts in voting. Rural voters – already a bedrock of GOP support – <a href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article237003749.html">have supported the party by wider margins</a>. The 2018 midterms, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e3386dc8-e40c-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad">showed the suburbs increasingly turning blue</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>Going into this year’s general election, political observers wanted to know: Would these trends persist in 2020? And how would they influence the battle for the Senate?</em></p>
<p><em>Three scholars from three battleground states – South Carolina, Iowa and Arizona – weighed in on the 2020 results.</em></p>
<h2>Harrison coalition falls short</h2>
<p><strong>Todd Shaw, University of South Carolina</strong></p>
<p>In a decisive victory, incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina won his race against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison.</p>
<p><a href="https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-11-03/state/SC">Based on 96% of the reported vote</a>, Graham netted 55% to Harrison’s 44%. This is nearly the exact same percentage of the South Carolina vote Donald Trump commanded over Joe Biden in the presidential race. </p>
<p>Not only does this suggest there was little split-ticket voting down ballot, but Graham also <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/sc/south_carolina_senate_graham_vs_harrison-7083.html">outperformed many of the polls</a>, which had indicated a much closer contest. At one point, the Cook Political Report had even deemed <a href="https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-toss">the race a toss-up</a>. </p>
<p>Harrison, who is African American, raised $57 million dollars in a final quarter prior to the election – <a href="https://time.com/5898991/south-carolina-senate-jamie-harrison-record-57-million/">setting an all-time quarterly record for a Senate race</a>.</p>
<p>And yet this mass infusion of funds wasn’t enough to unseat the three-term incumbent.</p>
<p>South Carolina has long been a Republican stronghold. Democratic statewide candidates can usually rely on the vast majority of Black voters, who make up around 30% of the total electorate, and tend to try to pad that with some percentage of remaining votes. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-did-lindsey-graham-end-up-in-such-a-close-race/">Rarely is this enough</a> to put a Democratic statewide candidate over the top; they’ll usually get somewhere between 43% of the vote, with a ceiling of 47%.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1323837545092943874"}"></div></p>
<p>With 44%, Harrison was on the low side of that range. </p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>Graham’s strategy, in which he took pains <a href="https://apnews.com/article/d519e372f78d9c2ac282db05e81d5e5c">to demonstrate his loyalty to Trump and his agenda</a>, clearly paid off. And as the chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/live-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation/2020/10/14/923808265/sen-graham-praises-fellow-senators-judge-barrett-to-end-day-3-of-hearings">he recently presided</a> over the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as the sixth conservative justice on the Supreme Court. It’s possible his platform during <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/graham-harrison-spar-over-coronavirus-handling-judges-in-scs-first-us-senate-debate/article_7a5c5ec6-05c6-11eb-ba63-4725bc080470.html">the October hearings</a> helped him rally the support of South Carolina’s conservative voters.</p>
<p>Yet it seems as though Harrison ultimately failed to pad his base of Black support.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-south-carolina.html">According to exit polls</a>, majorities of the non-Black constituencies who might typically have voted for Harrison in higher numbers – young people, middle-income earners, white college-educated women – reported voting for Trump over Biden. </p>
<p>With strong Republican turnout and little split-ticket voting, this partly explains why Harrison – like so many Democrats across the nation – faced a much steeper uphill climb than the polls predicted. </p>
<h2>A ‘farm girl’ fails to woo Iowa’s rural vote</h2>
<p><strong>Paul Lasley, Iowa State University</strong></p>
<p>In Iowa, there were rumblings that the <a href="https://time.com/5885962/trump-farmers-election-climate/">unpopularity of some of Trump’s policies with farmers</a> would drag down incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, a reliable ally of the president.</p>
<p>Instead, Ernst maintained her strong support among evangelical Christians, who make up about <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/iowa/">28% of Iowa’s population</a>, and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-farm-bureau-support-sen-ernst-fake-email">farm families</a>. It was enough to fend off a challenge from Democratic businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. Trump also outperformed <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/iowa/">preelection polls</a> and defeated Joe Biden in the state.</p>
<p>Rural voters in Iowa <a href="https://www.iowadatacenter.org/quickfacts">make up 36% of the population</a>. They’re a significant voting bloc and an important part of Iowa’s Republican base. Any Democratic candidate who wants to win needs to appeal to these voters.</p>
<p>Greenfield showed signs of making inroads; during her campaign, she stressed her background as a “<a href="https://www.carrollspaper.com/news/greenfield-positions-self-as-feisty-farm-girl-in-bid-to-challenge-ernst/article_e43c39f8-5c96-11ea-8cd6-57cbb5c1a5d7.html">feisty farm girl</a>” with deep roots in rural Iowa. She also was able to hammer the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-wind-energy-kills-birds-presidential-debate-joe-biden/">tepid support for renewable fuels and its bashing of wind energy</a>, two important industries in the state.</p>
<p>Trump’s trade war was another issue. China’s retaliatory tariffs have cost Iowa farmers <a href="https://www.card.iastate.edu/ag_policy_review/article/?a=103">over US$500 million</a>. Yet thanks to the ethanol fuel waivers granted to small refineries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-farmers-remain-loyal-to-trump-despite-pain-from-trade-wars-and-covid-19-146535">farmers have largely remained loyal to Trump</a>. And it certainly didn’t hurt that the Trump administration <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/farm-sector-income-forecast/">funneled millions of dollars into Iowa</a> to shore up the state’s flagging farm economy.</p>
<p>On social issues, rural Iowans are deeply conservative. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/10/18659919/iowa-abortion-laws-2020-election-biden-hyde-amendment">Many are staunch pro-lifers</a>, and Ernst has cultivated <a href="https://thefamilyleader.com/u-s-sen-joni-ernst-talks-to-iowa-pastors/">a strong alliance with the Family Leader</a>, a socially conservative political organization, to help secure the votes of the state’s religious voters. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Joni Ernst speaks at the 2019 Family Leadership Summit.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greenfield did make the race competitive. <a href="https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-us-senate-joni-ernst-vs-theresa-greenfiled-eleciton-results-2020-20201103">She enjoyed strong support</a> among urban voters in cities such as Des Moines and Cedar Rapids and performed better than Ernst’s 2014 opponent, U.S. Rep. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Bruce_Braley">Bruce Braley</a>.</p>
<p>But, like Biden, <a href="https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races">she ultimately failed to cut into the incumbent’s traditional rural base</a>. </p>
<h2>A battle for ‘soft’ Republican women in Arizona</h2>
<p><strong>Gina Woodall, Arizona State University</strong></p>
<p>Two years ago, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18056978/senate-midterm-results-arizona-kyrsten-sinema-winner">Republican Martha McSally lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema</a> in a close contest to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake. This was a big deal for Arizona Democrats: <a href="https://kjzz.org/content/598219/when-was-last-time-democrat-won-us-senate-seat-arizona">The last time a Democratic Senate candidate had won an open seat in the state was in 1976</a>.</p>
<p>After Republican Sen. John McCain died in August 2018, <a href="https://azgovernor.gov/governor/news/2018/12/governor-ducey-appoints-martha-mcsally-us-senate">Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to McCain’s seat</a>. In the 2020 cycle, she found herself facing Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut.</p>
<p>McSally is now 0 for 2.</p>
<p>Kelly proved a formidable opponent. Throughout the course of the campaign, he retained a lead <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/arizona/">in the vast majority of polls</a>, while <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/521165-kelly-raised-387-million-in-third-quarter">outraising McSally</a>.</p>
<p>In the last few weeks of the campaign, it appeared that both Kelly and McSally were jockeying for the suburban independent and “soft” – or persuadable – Republican female vote.</p>
<p>This strategy played out in the campaigns’ dueling ads. McSally focused on Kelly’s role as a brand ambassador <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/senator-martha-mcsally-attacks-mark-kelly-over-blatantly-sexist-marketing-campaign/ar-BB17Q6Kl">for the watch company Breitling</a>, which has come under fire for using sexist ads. McSally also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/us/politics/martha-mcsally-sexual-assault.html">highlighted her biography</a> as both a combat pilot and sexual assault survivor. </p>
<p>Kelly, <a href="https://markkelly.com/press-releases/mark-kelly-releases-growing-up-first-television-ad-of-campaign/">in his own ads</a>, noted how his mother became the first female police officer of his town. <a href="https://markkelly.com/press-releases/in-powerful-new-ad-gabby-giffords-highlights-mark-kellys-commitment-and-service/">He’s also focused on the women in his family</a> – his two grown daughters and his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1297701196652662785"}"></div></p>
<p>It seems as though McSally’s attempt to win over this bloc of soft Republican female voters fell flat. </p>
<p>It’s certainly possible <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/28/arizona-democrats-still-outpacing-republicans-early-balloting/3755011001/">increased voter turnout</a> among Democrats – together with a female <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/arizona-mark-kelly.html">suburban revolt</a> against Trump – ultimately dragged down the sitting senator.</p>
<p>And now traditionally “red” Arizona is set to have two Democrats simultaneously serving in the United States Senate – <a href="https://smartpolitics.lib.umn.edu/2020/04/23/arizona-eyes-first-all-democratic-us-senate-delegation-in-70-years/">something that hasn’t happened since 1952</a>.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=experts">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get expert takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Were GOP incumbents able to rely on their rural supporters to fend off Democrats’ growing strength in the suburbs?Paul Lasley, Professor of Sociology, Iowa State UniversityGina Woodall, Senior Lecturer at the School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State UniversityTodd Shaw, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488022020-11-01T19:06:48Z2020-11-01T19:06:48ZThe suburbs are the future of post-COVID retail<p>The COVID-19 pandemic delivered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">body blow to CBD retailers</a>, but it’s just the latest of their challenges in recent years. They were already under pressure from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/coronavirus-recession-in-australia-six-graphs-explain/12624250">cautious consumer spending</a>, intense <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/nab-online-retail-sales-index-august-2020-42815/">competition from online retailing</a> and the growth of suburban “<a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi16pTj99XsAhUGzDgGHToVAVYQFjAAegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.colliers.com.au%2Fdownload-research%3FitemId%3Dd1c91b17-abd7-4b03-a1d5-90874a6f38fd&usg=AOvVaw3V4dCHIa1neOszR03MtIPY">mega-centres</a>”.</p>
<p>Now, declining commuter foot traffic and an increase in people <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/working-from-home-coronavirus-big-productivity-increase/12628764">working from home</a> present new challenges for CBD retailers. Lockdowns, changing work practices and the need for social distancing have left some of Australia’s largest city centres at times resembling <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2020/sep/12/melbournes-curfew-descends-and-vibrant-city-becomes-ghost-town-in-pictures">ghost towns</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-all-but-killed-the-australian-cbd-147848">How COVID all but killed the Australian CBD</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even as <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-77">restrictions lift</a> and CBDs reopen, it will not be business as normal.</p>
<h2>Stores will shrink</h2>
<p>Retailers that depend heavily on discretionary spending, for items such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/clothing-industry-in-decline-as-conscious-consumers-cut-back-20191014-p530ex">clothing, footwear and accessories</a>, have been hit particularly hard.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release">Australian Bureau of Statistics figures</a> show clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 10.5% in August 2020, in seasonally adjusted terms. Department stores were down 8.9%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart showing changes in retail turnover" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366559/original/file-20201029-19-182olai.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release">Retail Trade, Australia, ABS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interestingly, despite an average decline in spending of -0.2% <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/clothing-retailing/407/">between 2015 and 2020</a>, research by <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/retail-ghost-town">McKinsey in 2019</a> found clothing and footwear retailers increased their selling space by almost 2%.</p>
<p>Clothing, footwear and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/david-jones-retailer-flags-footprint-cut-possible-store-closures/news-story/48bce9366f4729595bcbf6ca52e8f5f0">department store retailers</a> are now expected to “right-size” their selling space. McKinsey <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/retail-ghost-town">predicts</a> a floor-space reduction of more than 10% between now and 2024.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/retail-wont-snap-back-3-reasons-why-covid-has-changed-the-way-we-shop-perhaps-forever-140628">Retail won't snap back. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>CBD-based department stores have fared worse than those in the suburbs. The <a href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">Myer Annual Report 2020</a>, for example, highlights the impact of COVID restrictions on CBD store sales. Despite reopening all stores (except Melbourne) by <a href="https://insideretail.com.au/news/myer-to-reopen-all-stores-next-week-202005">May 27</a>, CBD store sales fell 33%, whereas suburban store sales contracted by only 9%, in the final seven weeks of the financial year. Myer <a href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">reports</a>: “Low foot traffic in CBDs expected to continue for the foreseeable future.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing Myer online, CBD and other sales" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366566/original/file-20201029-15-1y70p76.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Myer annual report shows a rise in online sales, a large fall in CBD store sales and smaller fall in other store sales compared to the same period a year earlier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://investor.myer.com.au/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/dGngnzELxUikQxL5gb1cgA/file/MYR_FY2020_Results_Presentation.pdf">Myer annual report 2020</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Online shopping is surging</h2>
<p>As COVID shut down cities, Australian shoppers moved online in increasing numbers. The <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/nab-online-retail-sales-index-august-2020-42815/">NAB Online Sales Index</a> estimates Australian consumers spent around $39.2 billion in the 12 months to August 2020. Online shopping now accounts for 11.5% of total retail sales in Australia. </p>
<p>Research from <a href="https://auspost.com.au/content/dam/auspost_corp/media/documents/inside-australian-online-shopping-update-sep2020.pdf">Australia Post</a> shows over 8.1 million households shopped online between March and August this year —
900,000 of them for the first time. In cities around Australia, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-11/shopping-centres-feel-the-pinch-as-retail-moves-online/12651046">foot traffic has become web traffic</a>.</p>
<p>We can clearly see the impacts of this on physical retailers. A number of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-retail-collapse-2020-1">major retail chains</a> have closed, including Toys ‘R’ Us, Roger David, Esprit, Ed Harry, TopShop and GAP over the past few years.</p>
<h2>CBD workers shift away from commuting</h2>
<p>As an increasing share of people work from home and fewer commute to city centres, the long-term future of CBD retailing looks bleak because of the fall in demand.</p>
<p>This shift in behaviour is likely to be substantial, as transport expert David Hensher recently <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/09/28/australians-want-to-work-from-home-more-post-covid.html">observed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The evidence reinforces the fact that as we move through and beyond the COVID-19 period, we can expect commuting activity to decline by an average of 25-30% as both employers and employees see value in a work-from-home plan.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ongoing health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the required physical distancing measures will force many firms to <a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/productivity-gains-from-teleworking-in-the-post-covid-19-era-a5d52e99/">introduce telework</a> (working from home) on a large scale. </p>
<p>In Australia, it has been estimated <a href="https://theconversation.com/teleworkability-in-australia-41-of-full-time-and-35-of-part-time-jobs-can-be-done-from-home-140723">39% of all jobs in Australia</a> — 41%of full-time and almost 35% of part-time – can be done from home.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fancy-an-e-change-how-people-are-escaping-city-congestion-and-living-costs-by-working-remotely-123165">Fancy an e-change? How people are escaping city congestion and living costs by working remotely</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>CBD retailing relies on workers and visitors who use public transport. An August 2020 <a href="https://www.transurban.com/content/dam/transurban-pdfs/03/Urban-Mobility-Trends-from-COVID-19.pdf">Transurban report</a> found 84% of daily train users (77% of bus users) in Melbourne said they had reduced their use. Many said they did not expect to return to daily use even after the pandemic. Similar numbers were reported in Sydney and Brisbane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing current and expected public transport use" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366560/original/file-20201029-17-1u6lruv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.transurban.com/content/dam/transurban-pdfs/03/Urban-Mobility-Trends-from-COVID-19.pdf">Data: Urban Mobility Trends from COVID-19, Transurban</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>COVID restrictions and declining commuter traffic have also had big impacts on the food and beverage market. According to IBISWorld, Australian restaurant revenue has <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/restaurants/2010/">fallen by 25%</a>, from almost A$20 billion in 2018-19 to just A$15 billion in 2019-20. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-hasn-t-fallen-apart-yet-cafes-in-sydney-s-cbd-on-the-brink-of-disaster-20200320-p54cds.html">Cafe owners</a> are equally feeling the impact, with fewer commuters grabbing their morning coffee and fewer coffee meetings happening around town.</p>
<h2>Back to the future</h2>
<p>With both <a href="http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/secure/CBRE%20Australia%20Retail%20MarketView%20Snapshot%20Q3%202020.pdf?e=1603837660&h=07e3ae7021bad508b0f4675eaae9ad94">commercial and residential rents</a> remaining relatively stable outside CBD zones, and more people choosing to work from home, we can expect to see a growth in “<a href="https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/news/localism-is-forecast-to-be-a-major-post-pandemic-trend/43612">localism</a>”. </p>
<p>Shopping mall owners have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/chadstone-set-for-685m-expansion-20191202-p53fyw.html">invested heavily</a> in refurbishing and increasing the floor space of their centres to provide retail, <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/living-centres-the-future-of-shopping-20190926-p52uzy">hospitality, entertainment, leisure and recreation</a> activities under one roof. Somewhat ironically, these refurbished malls have even <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/15/3999/pdf">appropriated design elements</a> of traditional high streets. </p>
<p>With many more people working from home during the pandemic there has been something of a retail inversion with more people <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/neighbourhood-malls-flourish-as-shoppers-stay-local-20200723-p55eto.html">shopping locally</a>. There are clear signs of a resurgence in local shopping villages and high street retailing. There even appears to be a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/spotlight-milk-bars-in-the-age-of-the-macchiato-and-smashed-avo-20190723-p529qs.html">corner store revival</a> of sorts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-milk-and-bread-corner-store-revival-can-rebuild-neighbourhood-ties-121244">More than milk and bread: corner store revival can rebuild neighbourhood ties</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>CBD-based retail is at a crossroads, especially in Melbourne and Sydney. Despite restrictions being lifted, the data indicate CDBs may never return to the “bustling metropolises” they once were.</p>
<p>The precarious state of the national economy, government plans to reduce subsidy payments, more people working from home, shopping locally and online, all point to a <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2020/09/29/online-shopping-sales/">bumpy road ahead</a> for CBD retailers. </p>
<p>Major questions are being raised about the future character and function of the CBD and, ultimately, about the structure of Australian cities more broadly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>CBD retailers were already struggling before the pandemic. The contrast in fortunes with suburban retail activity is stark, and there are good reasons to think the shift could be permanent.Gary Mortimer, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of TechnologyLouise Grimmer, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, University of TasmaniaPaul J. Maginn, Associate Professor of Urban/Regional Planning, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1477312020-10-29T12:30:12Z2020-10-29T12:30:12ZAmerican suburbs radically changed over the decades – and so have their politics<p><em>Editor’s note: Suburban voters in a number of areas are considered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/15/democrats-2020-election-suburbs-battle">critical swing voters</a>. The growing political stakes reflect the dramatic changes that have happened in American suburbia in recent years, says Dr. Jan Nijman, director and distinguished university professor at the Urban Studies Institute, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. He edited the book, “<a href="https://utorontopress.com/us/the-life-of-north-american-suburbs-4">The Life of North American Suburbs</a>,” which <a href="https://youtu.be/Pi7LUpgtO_8">examines</a> how the once homogeneous suburbs have become far more diverse and varied from one other.</em></p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pi7LUpgtO_8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">There is a world of difference even in suburbs that are relatively close to each other.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three major trends converge in suburbs</h2>
<p>The United States was the birthplace of the 20th-century suburb. After World War II, the archetypal “sitcom” suburb of the 1950s – white, middle-class households with male breadwinners and traditional gender roles, in single-family homes – assumed near-mythical proportions. They were seen as a settled, stable place where middle-class families had “arrived.” Change was not a part of that dreamy constellation.</p>
<p>But suburbia proved far from stable, because of three major trends: the rapid growth of suburban populations, growing diversity due in part to immigration and economic changes that brought increasing inequalities. If you add up these trends, the result is the increased sorting of populations into highly diverse suburban patterns. </p>
<p>By the year 2000, the suburban U.S. population exceeded that of central cities and rural areas combined. Today, there are many more types of suburbs than, say, 30 years ago. While cities are said to be diverse, they are really sorted into various types of suburbs where different types of people live in a sort of suburban bubble. If today somebody tells you they live in the suburbs, it does not tell you a lot. Rather, it raises the question “What suburb?”</p>
<h2>Enormous contrasts and inequalities</h2>
<p>Suburbs now are definitely not all white, middle-class or dominated by families with traditional gender roles. They vary a great deal in terms of well-being, race and ethnicity. The distinction between central cities and suburbs has blurred. This is due to the suburbanization of previously excluded lower-income groups and ethnic minorities, and to the gentrification of large parts of central cities – more wealthy people (often whites) moving back in. Suburbia continued to grow, but increasingly because many lower income people didn’t have anywhere else to go. For some of the less expensive, far-out suburbs, it was reflected in the phrase “Drive till you qualify.” </p>
<p>Since 2000, poverty in the suburbs has <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">grown much faster</a> than in central cities. By 2010, well over a third of the suburban population in the U.S. was <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/0504_census_ethnicity_frey.pdf">nonwhite</a>. The majority of <a href="https://www.nypl.org/events/exhibitions/black-suburbia/more">African Americans</a> now live in suburbs, and certain suburbs have also become the first and primary destination for foreign immigrants. </p>
<p>What really stands out are the enormous contrasts and inequalities between suburbs. For example, in metro Atlanta, where I am based, one of the suburban areas to the north has a life expectancy of 84 years – as high as Switzerland’s – and household incomes twice Atlanta’s average, and the residents are mostly white. Compare this to an inner suburban area west of downtown, where life expectancy is only 71 – comparable to Bangladesh – incomes are less than half the Atlanta average, and most residents are Black Americans. You could drive from one world to the other in 15 minutes. </p>
<h2>‘Swing suburbs’</h2>
<p>The 2020 elections are sometimes referred to as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/15/democrats-2020-election-suburbs-battle">battle for the suburbs</a>, for good reason. In recent elections, while urban areas have generally been strongly Democratic and small towns and rural areas have been predominantly Republican, it is in the suburbs where things are more dynamic. Especially in the <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/voter-turnout-philadelphia-suburbs-pennsylvania-joe-biden-donald-trump-presidential-election/2572199/">all-important swing states</a>, the outcomes tend to revolve around “swing suburbs.” </p>
<p>For instance, if the state of Georgia turns Democratic in 2020 (which may be a stretch), I think it will be decided in suburbia. <a href="https://fayettecountyga.gov/elections/election_results.htm">Fayette County</a>, an Atlanta suburb with about 60,000 voters, could be especially interesting. In past times, Fayette was overwhelmingly Republican (and white). In 2012, Romney beat Obama by a landslide, with 31.4 points. In 2016, however, Fayette showed the narrowest win for Trump of all 29 counties in Greater Atlanta, though still a considerable margin of 19.1 points (57.0–37.9). </p>
<p>In the 2018 gubernatorial vote, Fayette again had the narrowest Republican win of all similar-size counties in the state – but the margin was down to 13.2 points (56.0–42.8). It would require a large shift for Fayette to turn Democratic in 2020, but the changing demographics suggest a possibility: The estimated share of nonwhites since 2016 has <a href="https://datausa.io/profile/geo/fayette-county-ga#demographics">increased from 36.6% to 40%</a>, and the share of population whose first language is not English went up from 10.3% to 15%. If it happens, Fayette will follow the example of another Atlanta suburb: <a href="https://www.cobbcounty.org/elections/reference/history">Cobb County</a> in 2012 was won by Mitt Romney with a 12.6 margin, but in 2016 it went to Clinton by 2.1 points; and in the 2018 gubernatorial elections the Democrats extended their lead in Cobb County to 9.6 points. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>A more likely large swing suburb in a more critical state is <a href="https://www.voteseminole.org/election-results">Seminole County</a> (about 200,000 voters) in Florida, which covers a good part of the northern suburbs of Orlando. In Seminole County, the 2016 electoral margin in favor of Trump was the tightest of all major suburban counties in Florida, at just 1.5 points (48.1% to 46.6%). And in the gubernatorial elections of 2018, the county flipped Democratic, with a slender lead of 1.8 points (48.5% to 50.3%). In the last four years, Seminole’s estimated <a href="https://datausa.io/profile/geo/seminole-county-fl#demographics">nonwhite population has increased</a> from 38% to 42%; the foreign-born population went up from 12.6% to 15.2%; and the population whose first language is not English increased from 21% to 25.8%. </p>
<p>Suburbia is not what it used to be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Nijman receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada</span></em></p>Suburbs are more racially and economically diverse than ever, making them key battlegrounds for the election.Jan Nijman, Distinguished Professor of Urban Studies and Geosciences, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456652020-10-28T12:24:39Z2020-10-28T12:24:39ZNo, President Trump, suburbia is no longer all white — and Black suburbanites are more politically active than their neighbors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362486/original/file-20201008-16-bmg9gs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C31%2C5228%2C4496&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump's view of suburbia reflects a 1950s exclusively white place.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/1950s-mother-and-daughter-waving-to-father-opening-news-photo/668677365?adppopup=true">Debrocke/ClassicStock/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump has tweeted up a storm about how his Democratic challenger Joe Biden wants to “<a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1283429106768662528">abolish suburbs</a>” and institute programs that would bring impoverished criminals into the suburbs, where they will destroy the “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1288509568578777088?s=20">suburban lifestyle dream</a>.” </p>
<p>In the final stages of his campaign, Trump has made an explicit appeal to suburban women: “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood,” <a href="https://abc11.com/trump-targets-pennsylvania-women-but-will-do-so-without-wife-melania/7192222/">the president said</a> at a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in mid-October.</p>
<p>I am a political scientist who studies race in America’s suburbs; my book “<a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-2417-1.html">African Americans in White Suburbia: Social Networks and Political Behavior</a>” was published in 2017. I contend that Trump’s tweets are not about the actual suburbs. </p>
<p>Instead, they are meant to evoke an archetypal identity for a place historically rooted in the maintenance of racial segregation and white supremacy. </p>
<p>Trump’s image of the suburbs is filled with white people; his tweets are aimed at getting them to vote for him. But there is another contingent of suburban residents – African Americans – who may experience his tweets as provocation to participate in the election in a different direction. </p>
<p>My research indicates that Trump’s appeals may spark an unintended countermobilization. Half of African Americans in the U.S. <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">live in the suburbs</a>. These voters, typically of higher socioeconomic status when <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3097134?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">compared with their white neighbors</a>, are more likely to mobilize others who – in the face of Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=2338b77e-dd23-440b-8f8c-8d06c3488397&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Ftrumps-appeals-to-white-anxiety-are-not-dog-whistles-theyre-racism-146070">unsubtle racist signals</a> – may now be motivated to vote for Democrats, particularly in races lower down on the ballot. </p>
<p><iframe id="t2ryB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t2ryB/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What is a suburb?</h2>
<p>Ask an American to describe the suburbs and they will likely paint a picture of single-family houses, manicured lawns and minivans. They may also speak of the suburbs as a symbol of socioeconomic achievement. </p>
<p>Those things constitute the mythology of the suburbs. They’re not the empirical measurements that social scientists use to measure life in the suburbs. Those include income levels, crime rates and racial makeup. </p>
<p>In practice, the federal government’s definition of a suburb is any place surrounding an urban area that is neither urban nor rural. For instance, the Census Bureau’s <a href="https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US37980-philadelphia-camden-wilmington-pa-nj-de-md-metro-area/">Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington</a> Metropolitan Statistical Area includes the urban centers of those cities and a suburban area between them that crosses three states – Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware.</p>
<p>Trump’s tweets speak to an imagined and well-to-do stereotypical suburban resident who fears the bogeymen of poverty and crime. That combination of threats has <a href="https://academic.oup.com/joc/article-abstract/58/2/321/4098376?redirectedFrom=fulltext">historically</a> had a Black or Latino face.</p>
<h2>Who really is a suburbanite?</h2>
<p>Trump is likely not referring to the actual suburbs in his tweets.
<a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">According to data from Pew</a>, while suburban residents are still predominantly white, their share declined between 2000 and 2016, from 76% to 68% of all suburban residents. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">Poverty is increasing in the suburbs because of job sprawl</a>. Trump has charged that low-income people are moving to the suburbs because they’re attracting to its low-income housing. But he’s wrong: The suburbs are in flux because of the new geography of jobs. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/job-sprawl-and-the-suburbanization-of-poverty/">In a 2010 study</a> whose revealing title was “Job Sprawl and the Suburbanization of Poverty,” Brookings Institution researchers attributed the rise in the number of poor suburbanites to the availability of low-skilled jobs, like service or manufacturing, that have moved to the suburbs. In findings using <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0042098020922127">data from 1999 to 2015</a>, urban planning scholar Andrew Schouten notes that the number of suburban residents in poverty is increasing at double the rate of the central cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four voters who are Black casting ballots." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362519/original/file-20201008-16-1mf0nx4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents cast their votes at a polling place on Nov. 4, 2014, near Ferguson, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis that is now majority Black.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-cast-their-votes-at-a-polling-place-on-november-4-news-photo/458393546?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The suburbs’ racial history</h2>
<p>During the period between 1932 and 1964, the suburbs served as a government-subsidized path to the middle class that was designed to exclude Blacks and other “minority” groups such as Irish and Jewish Americans. </p>
<p>At the beginning of suburban development, buyers and sellers had to sign <a href="https://www.mappingprejudice.org/what-are-covenants/">restrictive housing covenants</a> stating that they would not sell their house to a person of color.</p>
<p>At the same time, the federal government would not extend housing <a href="https://dsl.richmond.edu/holc/">loans</a> to citizens <a href="https://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/redlining/#loc=5/39.1/-94.58&text=intro">who lived in nonwhite neighborhoods</a> and would lower the assessment of a home’s value (the most valuable asset) if Black people lived nearby.</p>
<p>So Trump’s invocation of “suburbs” as an achievement of the American dream is rooted in the fact that the dream was realized through the explicit racialization of home ownership and opportunity.</p>
<h2>Suburban African American countermobilization</h2>
<p>My research suggests that Trump’s racially coded tweets may produce a countermobilization from suburban African Americans. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-2417-1.html">2008</a> and <a href="https://cmpsurvey.org/2016-cmps-overview/">2016</a> these voters, who are often of higher socioeconomic status than their white <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3097134?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">neighbors</a>, were statistically more likely than white suburbanites to get involved in politics, even outside their home communities. This includes distributing political or interest group information, sharing information on social media, signing petitions and attending protests. For example, 11% of suburban African Americans are likely to attend a protest as opposed to 0.07% of their white neighbors. </p>
<p>Suburban Blacks are in a unique position compared to their neighbors, co-workers, and even the majority of their coethnics. Following my book’s publication, I analyzed the <a href="https://cmpsurvey.org/2016-survey/">2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey</a>, focusing on Americans in ZIP codes that are less than 20% Black, encompassing the very areas that Trump and residents may consider suburbs. </p>
<p>A familiar story emerges. Most Americans believe political participation is primarily designed to affect their immediate community. </p>
<p>But suburban African Americans do not believe their neighbors share their political views. Politically, this means these African American voters are in a position where they are surrounded by people with similar incomes, education and occupations. Yet on their primary identity, race, they are very different. </p>
<p><iframe id="ucgZF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ucgZF/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Political interests not in their backyard</h2>
<p>Evidence from 2008 and 2016 shows that suburban African Americans are less likely to vote in their local congressional races, but are more likely to engage in alternative forms of political participation such as donating to minority candidates, writing letters to newspapers and attending protests.</p>
<p>Unlike voting, these behaviors are not tied to a geographic jurisdiction. They include donating to legal challenges to statue removal in a state where they do not live or to a PTA in another community that conducts voter registration drives. Their opinions suggest that they devote their political resources to particular racial interests. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>The data show that these mostly suburban African Americans are in fact more likely to participate in behaviors like distributing political or interest group information, sharing information on social media, signing petitions and attending protests when compared with their white neighbors. </p>
<p>Trump’s pleas to suburbanites may spur these African American residents to work in swing states and competitive races lower down on the ballot.</p>
<p>So while Trump’s racialized pleas toward “suburban” voters could have the desired effect – gaining the support of white women in those communities – they could also spur other suburbanites to mobilize the very people he vilifies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145665/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ernest B. McGowen III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump’s image of the suburbs is filled with white people; he wants their votes. But there is another contingent of suburban residents: African Americans, and they’re not in his corner.Ernest B. McGowen III, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1472112020-10-19T17:17:06Z2020-10-19T17:17:06ZFact check US: Would the Democrats ‘ruin the suburbs’ as Donald Trump claims?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364590/original/file-20201020-17-4ouh4m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C156%2C3264%2C1890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Housing developments in northeastern Colorado Springs, Colorado., are typical of the car-oriented suburbs developed in the United States after World War II.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Shankbone/Wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the first presidential debate <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-joe-biden-1st-presidential-debate-transcript-2020">Donald Trump asserted</a> that if Joe Biden were elected, “our suburbs would be gone.”</p>
<p>In his campaign rallies, Trump has repeatedly accused the Democrats in general, and Biden in particular, of wanting to “abolish” and “destroy” the suburbs. On <a href="https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-speech-melbourne-fl-february-18-2017">August 11</a>, he stated:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“They want to put low-cost housing in the suburbs, and that would mean abolishing, ruining the suburbs. It has already begun. It’s been going on for years.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In a tweet, he addressed suburbanites by associating their lifestyle with the “American dream”, and “low-income housing” as a nuisance, echoing the myth that impoverished Americans are somehow undeserving of assistance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360563/original/file-20200929-18-fu14r2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>Trump was referring to his administration’s abandonment of a provision of the 1968 Fair Housing Act, signed by President Lyndon Johnson, and <a href="https://www.allianceforhousingjustice.org/post/understanding-affh">strengthened under the Obama administration</a>. The provision is intended to protect Americans from illegal housing discrimination and thus promote integration. The regulation conditioned the receipt of federal funds on the removal of barriers erected by local zoning, particularly a requirement to build single-family homes, which necessarily excludes multi-unit housing.</p>
<p>In his speeches and other communications, the president has presented himself as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh6iQP_TQz4">“savior of the suburbs”</a> and the American dream. To understand Donald Trump’s strategy, we must first take a brief historical look at the American notion of the suburbs.</p>
<h2>The original sin of the suburbs</h2>
<p>The term “American suburbs” conjures up the image of a solid middle-class or well-to-do population, mostly white, who live almost exclusively in single-family homes with landscaped yards. Suburbs as we conceive of them today began to be developed after World War I, when cars started to become more available, but are most associated with the period following the World War II. It was then that the federal <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.I._Bill">GI bill</a>, enacted in 1944, provided a range of benefits to demobilized soldiers, including education and housing. Financial support from the federal government and the accessibility of cheap land outside city centers led to the creation of new housing models that came to symbolize the “American dream”, such as <a href="https://ushistoryscene.com/article/levittown/">Levittown</a>.</p>
<p>It is important to note that the creation of these new residential areas is also intimately linked to the racial discrimination that existed at that time both in the south and in the north. With Blacks moving from the south to escape discrimination and find work, in turn many northern whites sought to leave urban centers, a phenomenon known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight">“white flight”</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0885412204263509">research has found</a>, Blacks often found themselves systematically excluded from the suburbs through individual and institutional discrimination, including real estate, banking and federal laws. In <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/the-color-of-law-a-forgotten-history-of-how-our-government-segregated-america/"><em>The Color of the Law</em></a>, published in 2017, historian Richard Rothstein demonstrates that housing segregation was a result of government policy at all levels – federal, state and local. The Levittowns were the most famous suburban subdivisions in history and served as models for other suburbs. They were symbols of both the “American dream” and American discrimination. The first was built in 1947 and was originally open to whites only. Even today, Blacks make up only <a href="https://projects.newsday.com/long-island/levittown-demographics-real-estate/">1% of the current population</a>. Housing discrimination, in the suburbs as well as inner cities, was not the result of pure market forces. Instead, it was designed into the system.</p>
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<h2>An end to discrimination?</h2>
<p>The passage of the Fair Housing Act in 1968 reduced housing discrimination. According to demographer William Frey, it helped reduce this type of discrimination by approximately a third between 1970 and 2010. Today, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/">55% of the US population</a> lives in areas that could be considered suburbs, including about a third of ethnic minorities. Despite the fact that 45% of US residents live in rural or urbanized areas, many consider the United States to be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-become-a-nation-of-suburbs-101501">“nation of suburbs”</a>.</p>
<p>Behind these figures lies an even more complex reality. Academic research has found that urban areas also have forms of segregation, that <a href="https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/07/racial-segregation-takes-new-forms-study-shows">racial segregation is taking new forms</a> and that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0049089X17305422">forms of “white flight” still persist</a>. Forms of segregation within suburban communities, between suburbs, where people of different “races” live continue.</p>
<p>In 2019, Ben Carson, secretary of state for Housing and Urban Development since 2017, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/face-carson-backtracks-push-neighborhood-zoning/story?id=72425652">criticized zoning that imposed single-family homes</a>. He asserted that it made housing “too expensive” and exacerbating the homelessness crisis. In August 2020, however, he asserted the exact opposite in an <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-protect-americas-suburbs-11597608133">opinion article</a> published the <em>Wall Street Journal</em>. It was co-signed by the president and titled “We will protect the suburbs.”</p>
<p>Trump claims that abandoning the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Act (AFFH) will protect American freedom. The irony is that the AFFH Act was itself a deregulation designed to relax zoning rules and allow for the free construction of low-cost housing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360564/original/file-20200929-20-1a707ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<h2>A binary, racialized, nostalgic and mythified vision</h2>
<p>Citing the city of Westchester, New York as an example, Trump constructs a binary narrative that <a href="https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-interview-laura-ingraham-fox-news-august-31-2020">contrasts the “beautiful” suburbs</a> with “cheap housing” that “comes with a lot of other problems, including crime.” The Westchester version of the suburbs is one he knows well since he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/nyregion/trump-westchester-housing.html">owns several properties there</a> and has been sued more than once by the federal government for violating existing desegregation policies. Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html">own father was sued repeatedly</a> by the federal government for discriminating against Blacks. One can therefore understand “low-cost housing” as “housing occupied for people of color” even if, in reality, <a href="https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/HousingSpotlight2-2.pdf">many whites benefit from it</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump contrasts his idealized vision of the suburbs as bucolic safe havens with the harsher view of large Democrat-led cities as places of violence, riots and corruption:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=278&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360566/original/file-20200929-16-1lec071.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Here he is drawing from an American founding myth, already present in Jefferson, that contrasts cities (places of vice) with rurality (places of virtue). This sanitized vision of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23416170?seq=1">“small-town America”</a> has given way to the idealized American suburb, illustrated by the association of the suburbs with domesticity, beauty, and personified in the vulnerable housewife, in need of protection. In an <a href="https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-interview-laura-ingraham-fox-news-august-31-2020">interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News</a>, he said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Women, more than anything else, they want safety. They must have safety. There’s a level of violence that you don’t see. So you have this beautiful community in the suburbs, including the women, right? Women, they want safety.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360568/original/file-20200929-14-1wowlkk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The very term <em>housewives</em> is an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/07/26/895228366/trumps-trying-to-appeal-to-real-housewives-and-white-suburbs-but-they-re-declini">anachronism</a> that harkens back to the 1950s. Its pejorative connotation within modern feminism makes it all the more attractive to Trump, who sees in it a symbol of an era when America was great because people knew their role and place within the hierarchy.</p>
<p>All this is part of a campaign strategy based on the theme of <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-law-and-order-campaign-relies-on-a-historic-american-tradition-of-racist-and-anti-immigrant-politics-145366">“law and order”</a> that aims to arouse the fear of conservatives who still dream of an idealized (necessarily) white America, that they believe existed before the upheavals of the 1960s, before the era of civil rights and feminism. The 1968 Fair Housing Act, strengthened under the Obama administration, was intended to ensure that all communities, including the suburbs, are more diverse. That is not “destroying” the suburbs and it is certainly not “abolishing” them.</p>
<p>Trump’s claims are thus false. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Fact check US is supported by <a href="https://craignewmarkphilanthropies.org/">Craig Newmark Philanthropies</a>, an American foundation fighting against disinformation.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was translated from the French by Alice Heathwood for <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr/en">Fast ForWord</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Donald Trump has accused the Democrats of wanting to “abolish” and “destroy” the suburbs through a regulation aimed at diversifying housing, a claim unsupported by the facts.Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Assistant lecturer, CY Cergy Paris UniversitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459972020-09-18T13:58:55Z2020-09-18T13:58:55ZHumans ignite almost every wildfire that threatens homes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358677/original/file-20200917-18-1woo7rd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2041%2C1152&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An airtanker drops retardant to help stop the spread of the 2015 Eyrie Fire in the foothills of Boise, Idaho, which was ignited by sparks from construction equipment.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/NCL5D5">Austin Catlin, BLM/Flickr</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358458/original/file-20200916-24-1oyglw3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Summer and fall are wildfire season across the western U.S. In recent years, wildfires have destroyed thousands of homes, forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate and exposed tens of millions to harmful smoke. </p>
<p>Wildfires are a natural disturbance for these regions, but when combined with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113">climate change</a> and housing growth <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050">in the wildland-urban interface</a> – zones where development has spread into wild areas – they have become larger and more destructive. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1305526491413848067"}"></div></p>
<p>To make matters worse, humans are responsible for starting almost all the wildfires in developed areas that threaten U.S. homes. In a newly published study, we show that through activities like <a href="https://www.bia.gov/bia/ots/dfwfm/bwfm/wildfire-prevention-and-education/home-bureau-indian-affairs-bia-trust-services-division-forestry-and-wildland-fire-management-branch#:%7E:text=Naturally%20occurring%20wildfires%20are%20most,fires%2C%20depending%20on%20the%20circumstance.">debris burning, equipment use and arson</a>, people ignited <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050">97%</a> of home-threatening wildfires in the wildland-urban interface between 1992 and 2015. For comparison, when fires in undeveloped areas are also counted, humans started <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">84% of all wildfires</a> between 1992 and 2012, with lightning as the main natural cause.</p>
<h2>Common and costly</h2>
<p>Wildfires in developed areas threatened one million homes across the lower 48 states that sat within their boundaries in the years we reviewed in our study. This figure is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718850115">five times larger</a> than previous estimates, which did not consider the threat of small fires – those measuring less than 1.5 square miles (4 square kilometers).</p>
<p>Human-started fires in these zones carry a high price tag. Over 15 years, between 2000 and 2014, state and local governments spent US$4.1 billion fighting wildfires near homes. That’s equivalent to one-third of the national wildfire control budget, even though the wildland-urban interface represents only 10% of U.S. land area.</p>
<p>And development in these areas is increasing. Between 1990 and 2015, 32 million new homes were built in the wildland-urban interface – <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050">a 145% increase</a>.</p>
<p>Climate change is adding to the problem by making much of the U.S. West hotter and drier, and thus <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-forest-management-have-both-fueled-todays-epic-western-wildfires-146247">more prone to burn</a>. Warming that has already occurred is linked to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113">doubling of cumulative burned area across Western U.S. forests</a> since 1984. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing rising summer temperatures and increases in large burns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=279&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358180/original/file-20200915-20-13jccdm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Since 2000, wildfires have burned 10 of the largest areas since 1970. During these years, average U.S. summertime (June- August) temperatures rose steadily. (Fire data from NIFC, temperature data from NOAA).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nathan Mietkiewicz</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As warming continues, small fires started by people either accidentally or deliberately in the wildland-urban interface could grow into large fires. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537">Longer fire seasons</a>, increased burning and having more homes to protect pose a potentially insurmountable resource challenge. </p>
<p>But the fact that people start the vast majority of wildfires that threaten homes also means it is possible to remove these wildfires from the equation. The way to do this is by altering common human behaviors that introduce ignitions. Key solutions may include: </p>
<p>– Doing more routine maintenance of infrastructure, such as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/879008760/pg-e-pleads-guilty-on-2018-california-camp-fire-our-equipment-started-that-fire">electric power lines</a>. </p>
<p>– Organizing campaigns to reduce use of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/08/california-gender-reveal-fire/">fireworks and other explosives</a>.</p>
<p>– Limiting use of motorized equipment for yard work and banning debris burning during hot and dry conditions. </p>
<p>– Conducting more planned burns in high-risk areas like the wildland-urban interface during low-fire risk times of year. This work should target areas in these zones where ignition rates and threats to homes are high. These areas should receive high priority for fuel treatments or prescribed burning as preventative measures. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3217-z">Current trends</a> suggest that people are not going to stop moving to beautiful but flammable areas. This means that more homes will be vulnerable to wildfires, and more people will be engaging in activities that could start them. We think it’s time for <a href="https://www.smokeybear.com/en">Smokey Bear</a> to move to the suburbs, with a new slogan: “Only you can prevent wildfires that threaten your home.” </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Mietkiewicz receives funding from University of Colorado, Boulder’s Grand Challenge Initiative and National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Balch receives funding through the Grand Challenge Initiative of the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Wildfires aren’t always wild. Many of the most expensive and damaging fires happen in suburban areas, and nearly all blazes in these zones are started by humans.Nathan Mietkiewicz, Data Scientist, National Ecological Observatory NetworkJennifer Balch, Associate Professor of Geography and Director, Earth Lab, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1412442020-08-13T19:26:38Z2020-08-13T19:26:38ZThe US economy is reliant on consumer spending – can it survive a pandemic?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352837/original/file-20200814-14-1nh0dnp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C41%2C2269%2C1490&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. spends the most money on advertising in the world. Marketing and advertising spending in 2020 is projected to reach nearly $390 billion. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Mewing/Moment via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has radically affected the American economy, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html">reducing spending</a> by American households on materials goods, air travel, leisure activities as well as the use of automobiles. As a result, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/30/848307092/greenhouse-gas-emissions-predicted-to-fall-nearly-8-largest-decrease-ever">greenhouse gas emissions</a> have temporarily <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x">fallen dramatically</a>. </p>
<p>While this may be a positive for the environment, the social price is high: Since the U.S. economy depends heavily on consumer spending, the country is experiencing <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/some-big-cities-are-hitting-great-depression-unemployment-levels.html">the highest unemployment rate</a> since the Great Depression, the <a href="https://community.solutions/analysis-on-unemployment-projects-40-45-increase-in-homelessness-this-year/">threat of homelessness</a> for tens of thousands of people and a failure of <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/major-companies-filing-for-bankruptcy-due-to-coronavirus.html">businesses large</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/21320361/small-business-closing-covid-coronavirus-ppp-entrepreneur-economy-stimulus-loans">small</a>. How did the U.S. arrive at the point whereby mass consumption – and the greenhouse gas emissions associated with it – is necessary for economic and social well-being? Are greenhouse gas reductions and a thriving economy incompatible? </p>
<p>A consumer society is a 20th-century construct. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream">American Dream</a> has become synonymous with buying material goods such as cars, houses, furniture or electronics, distorting its original meaning. Today, the spending habits of American households make up 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product, a measurement that describes the size of the economy. U.S. companies spend about <a href="https://whatsnewinpublishing.com/bolstered-by-digital-ad-spends-us-advertising-market-now-2-5-times-bigger-than-nearest-competitor/">US$230 billion</a> on advertising each year, half of all the money spent on advertising globally.</p>
<h2>Buy your dreams</h2>
<p>Today’s consumer society emerged after the end of World War I, fueled by the emergence of the modern advertising industry and facilitated by widespread adoption of <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/29448/a-consumers-republic-by-lizabeth-cohen/">consumer credit</a>. Edward Bernays, the nephew of Sigmund Freud, is generally credited with inventing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-manipulation-of-the-american-mind-edward-bernays-and-the-birth-of-public-relations-44393">field of marketing</a> during the 1920s. The essence of his approach was to tap into people’s desires to feel good, powerful and sexy instead of emphasizing the usefulness of a product. Bernays created the term <a href="http://classes.design.ucla.edu/Fall07/28/Engineering_of_consent.pdf">“engineering of consent”</a> and popularized the term “consumer” when referring to American people.</p>
<p>Mass consumption grew steadily until the onset of the Great Depression. But the deliberate creation of the present <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691159584/beyond-our-means">consumer society took off</a> in earnest during the 1940s and 1950s. When WWII ended, so did wartime industrial production. Industry leaders shifted their enormous production capabilities from the military to the civilian sector.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351627/original/file-20200806-18-fr2e40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many manufacturing jobs created by World War II were lost when the war ended.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/M96M9iBo69w">Photo by Science in HD on Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, President Harry Truman was concerned with looming unemployment among returning veterans and saw <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/29448/a-consumers-republic-by-lizabeth-cohen/">mass production of consumer goods</a> as the solution. The 1944 <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Features/story/Article/1727086/75-years-of-the-gi-bill-how-transformative-its-been/">GI Bill</a> helped returning veterans purchase houses with down payments and government-guaranteed loans. Mortgage interest deductions and government-financed infrastructure – local utilities and roads, a national highway system – made suburban homeownership a logical financial plan for families, while Social Security provided relief from having to save for old age.</p>
<p>Labor unions, too, were vested in increasing wages for their members, so working families could afford houses, cars and household appliances. At this particular historical juncture, business, government and labor came together, united in their shared goal to increase household consumption as the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/29448/a-consumers-republic-by-lizabeth-cohen/">bedrock of economic prosperity</a> and social harmony.</p>
<p>These developments took place in the context of the post-war euphoria over the uncontested power of the U.S., the post-Depression hunger for a better life, advances in cheap mass production and a demographic boom. Consumerism became a symbol of the superiority of the capitalist system over Soviet-style communism, as illustrated by the famous “Kitchen Debate” in 1959 at the <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/Fifty_Years_Ago_American_Exhibition_Stunned_Soviets_in_Cold_War/1783913.html">American National Exhibition</a> in Moscow. Standing among the sleek labor-saving appliances of a modern American kitchen, Vice President Richard Nixon demonstrated to Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev the <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/1959-07-24.pdf">higher quality of life</a> of working people in the U.S.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XRgOz2x9c08?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The superiority of capitalism over communism, a debate between two world leaders, was symbolized by the splendid modern American kitchen.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The great transformation</h2>
<p>The results of this business-government-labor alliance were astonishing. National output of goods and services doubled between 1946 and 1956, and doubled <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/29448/a-consumers-republic-by-lizabeth-cohen/">again by 1970</a>. Mass-produced cheap and comfortable single-family homes, increasingly distant from city centers, became affordable. The iconic 1949 <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/28/levittown-america-prototypical-suburb-history-cities">Levittown</a> on Long Island, New York, was a model of the suburbs: uniform, convenient, segregated by race and dependent on the automobile. By 1960, 62% of Americans owned their homes, in contrast to 44% in 1940. <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-shopping-mall/">Suburban shopping malls</a>, uniform and racially segregated, became by default public gathering spaces, replacing city streets, cafes and places of commerce.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/29448/a-consumers-republic-by-lizabeth-cohen/">social transformation</a> occurred in a span of a single generation. Consumerism and a suburban lifestyle became the organizing principles of society and synonymous with fundamental values such as family well-being, safety, democratic political freedom and the American Dream.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351630/original/file-20200806-20-19oukyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Suburban housing development in Arizona.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/pJk4RRS7urs">Photo by Avi Waxman for Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Basics get bigger</h2>
<p>Since the 1950s, this version of a good life – shaped by advertising of what was necessary to live well – has been remarkably stable. But there is a twist: The notion of what represents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/13/opinion/sunday/real-estate-housing-market-dream-home.html">basic comfort</a> has been steadily moving toward larger and more – SUVs and myriad <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/09/american-houses-big/597811/">conveniences and technologies</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/upshot/houses-keep-getting-bigger-even-as-families-get-smaller.html?_r=0">bigger</a> and more <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5525283">dispersed houses</a> filled with furniture and stuff and additional bathrooms and bedrooms, larger kitchens, media and exercise rooms and outdoor living rooms.</p>
<p>Today, the best predictor of household <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/">carbon footprint</a> is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004934">income</a>. This correlation holds true in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3165?proof=true&amp;platform=oscar&amp;draft=journal">different countries</a>, regardless of political views, education or environmental attitudes.</p>
<h2>Rethinking consumption</h2>
<p>Consumption comes at a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3165?">high ecological cost</a>. As the gross national product grows – driven largely by household consumption – so do greenhouse gas emissions. Many scientists and policy analysts believe that as technology increases energy efficiency and replaces fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, greenhouse gas emissions will be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/546593a">significantly reduced</a>. But despite the rapid advances in these technologies, there is no evidence that trends in greenhouse gas emissions are separate and independent from <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6468/950">economic growth trends</a>. Neither is there a basis for the idea that <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6468/950">green growth</a> will prevent the anticipated climate catastrophe that the world is facing.</p>
<p>At the same time, there is <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6468/950">little evidence</a> that Americans have become <a href="https://www.amacad.org/publication/how-not-buy-happiness">happier</a> in the last seven decades of growing consumerism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351632/original/file-20200806-18-sv4628.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Buying power is not the only measure of happiness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/M5Zix_4Jc4k">Photo by Conner Baker for Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This pandemic reveals to me the vulnerability of an economy heavily dependent on a single source of economic activity – consumption. From my perspective, the U.S. would be better off if the economy – our collective wealth – were more heavily weighted toward <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/business/investment-society-economic-public.html">public spending</a> on, and investment in, education, health care, public transit, housing, parks and better infrastructure, and renewable energy. Such an economy would contribute to human well-being, emit less greenhouse gas and be less vulnerable to sudden disruptions in consumer spending. </p>
<p>As I see it, it is time for an honest public conversation about the carbon footprint of our “basic” lifestyles and what Americans need rather than what they are told they need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Halina Szejnwald Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Buy, buy, buy was a social directive after WWII.Halina Szejnwald Brown, Professor Emerita, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1434322020-08-02T19:55:29Z2020-08-02T19:55:29ZWhy coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349509/original/file-20200727-17-ksqeio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3713%2C2531&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mural by Amanda Newman in Northcote, Melbourne, depicts Ai Fen, a Wuhan Central Hospital doctor who was reprimanded for raising the alarm about COVID-19 in December 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Carl Grodach</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 and the growing recession <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-first-service-sector-recession-will-be-unlike-those-that-have-gone-before-it-137994">concentrated in the services sector</a> will not just increase social inequality, but accelerate the growing spatial divide in our cities. As our new research <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mada/research/navigating-economic-uncertainty-in-post-covid-cities">report</a> shows, the pandemic’s impacts reinforce the ongoing trend towards the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261719925_Suburbanizing_disadvantage_in_Australian_cities_sociospatial_change_in_an_era_of_neoliberalism">suburbanisation of inequality</a>.</p>
<p>There are two reasons for this. First, the industries vulnerable to the economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns rely heavily on low-wage, part-time employment. Second, the inner suburbs are home to the largest concentration of COVID-vulnerable workers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">Rapid growth is widening Melbourne's social and economic divide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If we do not act now, more people will get pushed out of inner areas rich in jobs and amenities to lower-cost outer suburbs with poor access to jobs and community services. </p>
<h2>Which industries and workers are vulnerable?</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mada/research/navigating-economic-uncertainty-in-post-covid-cities">research</a> analyses where people employed in the industries most vulnerable to COVID-19 lockdowns live and the kind of work they do. We map vulnerable employment areas in all suburbs of Australia’s five largest capital cities. We then examine the characteristics of people in vulnerable employment living in all suburbs of Australia’s current coronavirus hotspot, metropolitan Melbourne. </p>
<p>We define vulnerable employment based on a detailed review of industries with one-third or more firms reporting <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/5676.0.55.003Main%20Features3Week%20Commencing%2030%20March%202020?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5676.0.55.003&issue=Week%20Commencing%2030%20March%202020&num=&view=">reduced worker hours</a> one week after the first COVID-19 lockdown (March 30 2020). These firms are mainly in the consumer, travel and community services sectors. They employ people working in accommodation and food, arts and entertainment, education, “non-essential” <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-16/coronavirus-leaves-medical-practices-on-verge-of-collapse/12359282">health care</a>, retail and transport. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-recession-puts-service-workers-at-risk-134869">How the coronavirus recession puts service workers at risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We profile the characteristics of vulnerable workers in each of these sub-industries and by suburb. We classify suburbs (using <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Australian+Statistical+Geography+Standard+(ASGS)">SA2 level</a> data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics) by share of vulnerable employment based on the worker’s place of usual residence. </p>
<h2>Many at-risk workers live in inner suburbs</h2>
<p>As the map below shows, the largest shares of vulnerable workers live in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349503/original/file-20200727-25-754ql2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=678&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS (2016) Census data, by place of residence at SA2 level. Map by Declan Martin and Alexa Gower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vulnerability levels clearly diminish moving outward from the city centre. In other words, many vulnerable workers live in some of the highest-rent suburbs. </p>
<p>On average, the share of vulnerable workers in the very high vulnerability suburbs is 32.2% of employed residents. The figure exceeds 40% in some of these areas.</p>
<h2>Workers likely to be forced to move</h2>
<p>Living in the inner suburbs, combined with the nature of their jobs, puts many COVID-vulnerable workers at high risk of displacement.</p>
<p>In the very high vulnerability suburbs, 47% of vulnerable workers are on low or very low incomes. And 54.3% work part-time (less than 38 hours a week). A large proportion (41.9%) are aged under 30 and about one-third are 30-44.</p>
<p>In fact, over half (53.5%) of the vulnerable workforce living in very high-vulnerability suburbs hold jobs in the most precarious, low-wage consumer services industries – accommodation and food services and retail and personal services. Another 30% work in arts, entertainment and education. </p>
<p>Suppressed consumer demand will not only have short-run employment impacts, but might permanently alter consumption patterns. The result would be enduring business closures and job losses for workers who live in these areas. </p>
<p>To make ends meet, many of those facing job loss and other employment pressures such as reduced hours will seek more affordable housing in the middle and outer suburbs. </p>
<p>However, although the outer areas are now home to the smallest proportion of vulnerable workers, the vulnerable workers that live there tend to be worse off. Just over 66% are on low or very low incomes and 60% work part-time.</p>
<p>As a result, the migration of COVID-vulnerable workers to the outer areas will add to the existing concentration of spatial inequality in Greater Melbourne.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing demographic breakdown of vulnerable employment communities for each level of vulnerability" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350533/original/file-20200731-77137-1yq48ho.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=779&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: ABS 2016 Census data, by place of residence at the SA2 level</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/private-renters-are-doing-it-tough-in-outer-suburbs-of-sydney-and-melbourne-120427">Private renters are doing it tough in outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can be done about this?</h2>
<p>COVID-19 puts people working in low-end <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-coronavirus-recession-puts-service-workers-at-risk-134869">service jobs</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-3-in-4-australians-employed-in-the-creative-and-performing-arts-could-lose-their-jobs-136505">creative</a> and educational services at high risk of losing their jobs. Those who manage to live in the high-cost inner suburbs are now particularly vulnerable. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-3-in-4-australians-employed-in-the-creative-and-performing-arts-could-lose-their-jobs-136505">Coronavirus: 3 in 4 Australians employed in the creative and performing arts could lose their jobs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is therefore crucial to expand rather than retract the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs. Proposed cuts to JobSeeker are estimated to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/24/weekly-cut-of-150-to-jobseeker-coronavirus-supplement-will-throw-370000-australians-into-poverty">push 370,000 Australians into poverty</a>, 123,000 in Victoria alone. In tandem, we need interim policy in the rental housing market to defuse the impending “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/19/we-dont-know-how-many-time-bombs-are-ticking-australias-rent-deferral-debt-trap">rent bomb</a>” of tenants facing eviction if they can’t pay the accumulated debt of deferred rent.</p>
<p>Longer-term strategies are also needed. We must confront the reality that many service sector jobs will not return.</p>
<p>This requires investment in skills-building courses tied to strengthening the recovery of TAFEs and universities, particularly in areas like “essential manufacturing” – medical supplies, recycling, food – and communications technologies. <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/jobtrainer-skills-package-economic-recovery-and-growth">JobTrainer</a> is a good start. </p>
<p>Given the spatial dimensions of the crisis, place-based programs are crucial too. Preserving <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-fix-the-problems-caused-by-rezoning-inner-city-industrial-land-for-mixed-use-apartments-121566">inner suburban industrial land</a> can play a significant role in small enterprise start-ups, firm expansion and job creation. Inner industrial districts provide a flexible mix of space that allows businesses to grow and add quality jobs in place.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-fix-the-problems-caused-by-rezoning-inner-city-industrial-land-for-mixed-use-apartments-121566">Three ways to fix the problems caused by rezoning inner-city industrial land for mixed-use apartments</a>
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<p>At the same time, policymakers can better develop <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0023/450275/Mambourin-Report-Staging-Community-Infrastructure.pdf">community infrastructure</a> and employment hubs in the outer suburbs. Community hubs provide flexible, multipurpose spaces that cater to various community needs. These services range from youth, aged care and health facilities to collaborative workspaces and settings for workforce training providers. </p>
<p>While COVID-19 is clearly taking an immediate toll on the health and economies of our cities, we need a conversation about the longer-term impacts and responses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Grodach receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The inner suburbs are home to large numbers of workers in jobs vulnerable to the pandemic. If they’re forced to seek cheaper housing in outer suburbs, the urban divide will widen.Carl Grodach, Professor and Director of Urban Planning & Design, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.