tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/transport-infrastructure-67682/articlestransport infrastructure – The Conversation2024-02-07T13:27:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2211312024-02-07T13:27:32Z2024-02-07T13:27:32ZSomaliland-Ethiopia port deal: international opposition flags complex Red Sea politics<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67858566">memorandum of understanding</a> between Ethiopia and Somaliland announced on 1 January 2024 set off diplomatic rows in the Horn of Africa – and beyond. </p>
<p>Details of the agreement are not publicly known, but both state leaders have touched on its content. Among the main elements:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Ethiopia gets <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f1a7ffa3-03d8-46e4-a009-3710b4abc27d">a 50-year lease</a> on a strip of land on Somaliland’s Red Sea coast for naval and commercial maritime use and access to the Berbera port. </p></li>
<li><p>Somaliland gets a share of Ethiopian Airlines. It also gets <a href="https://twitter.com/SomaliGuardian/status/1741854201162985590">an undertaking that</a> Ethiopia will investigate recognising Somaliland as a sovereign state. If it decides to do so, Ethiopia will be the first country to recognise Somaliland. The breakaway state has operated autonomously since it declared its independence from Somalia in May 1991, but lacks international recognition. </p></li>
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<p>The list of countries opposed to the memorandum of understanding includes those in the region, such as Egypt, and western powers such as the US and the EU. China and Turkey add to the powerful mix.</p>
<p>Reasons for their objections vary. Some attest to the geopolitical significance of ports and other infrastructure like roads, dams or railways. These projects are often contested, a subject I <a href="https://more.bham.ac.uk/port-infrastructure/">have studied at close quarters</a>. </p>
<p>Infrastructure is deeply intertwined in political identities. Ethiopia’s political leadership, for example, has declared maritime access as a “<a href="https://addisstandard.com/news-ethiopias-quest-to-access-sea-not-a-matter-of-luxury-but-of-survival-premiers-security-advisor-briefs-military-attaches-reps-of-international-partners/">matter of survival</a>”. It argues that the country’s historical status and its rapid economic growth entitle it to sovereign access to the sea. </p>
<p>Infrastructures aren’t the only drivers of dissent over the deal. But they emphasise geopolitical struggles and point to political and economic competitions that are raising worries of increasing instability in the region. </p>
<p>The diplomatic squabbles show re-configurations of political alliances in the Red Sea region and beyond. The memorandum of understanding has placed the question of Somaliland’s recognition into the centre of these political dynamics.</p>
<h2>Opposition</h2>
<p>Somalia is the biggest opponent of the port deal. The president of the federal government of Somalia, Sheikh Hassan Mohamud, declared the memorandum a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He announced Somalia would defend its territory against Ethiopian “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67861390">aggression</a>”. </p>
<p>However, the federal government in Mogadishu has no actual authority in Somaliland. It does not even exert full territorial control across Somalia – Al-Shabaab controls territory in south and central Somalia. The militant Islamist group also declared the agreement a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.</p>
<p>So far the United Arab Emirates, a close partner of Somaliland and Ethiopia, has been silent. The UAE is increasing its influence in the Red Sea region and Africa more generally. It has <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2022/12/berbera-the-making-of-a-global-port-and-the-unmaking-of-a-people/">containerised</a> and manages Somaliland’s Berbera port. UAE companies <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/uae-s-overarching-role-in-african-ports-development">are building</a> port infrastructures across Africa. The UAE is among the largest foreign investors on the continent, following China, the US and the EU. </p>
<p>The lineup of globally and regionally powerful countries opposed to the deal suggests that the deck is stacked against the agreement.</p>
<p>The US, the EU and Turkey have invested heavily in attempts to rebuild Somalia’s state and security apparatus and to counter Islamist terrorism. </p>
<p>For example, Turkey took over the management of the airport and seaport in Mogadishu. It has built social and physical infrastructure in the capital, and opened its first external military base in the country.</p>
<p>The US and Turkey have each trained special forces in Somalia, and both countries have military on the ground. A confrontation between Somalia and Ethiopia would put their investments at risk, provide further challenges for the stability of the region and, likely, play into the hands of Al-Shabaab. </p>
<p>The role of the EU and of European countries is more ambiguous. The EU is a crucial financial backer of the Somalia federal government, which is part of its Horn of Africa <a href="https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/global-gateway-eu-and-horn-africa-countries-sign-alliance-boost-economic-development-and-combat-2023-12-15_en">Global Gateway Initiative</a>. </p>
<p>The initiative promises to connect regional infrastructure to foster economic integration. That’s something Ethiopia also promises with the memorandum of understanding. The EU doesn’t recognise Somaliland, but provided support to build its state institutions. </p>
<p>The UK is even funding the Hargeisa bypass road, part of the Berbera corridor that links Somaliland’s port to the Ethiopian border. </p>
<p>Not surprising is the opposition of Djibouti and China. Djibouti’s seaport processes over 80% of Ethiopia’s overseas trade. Ethiopia’s use of Berbera port is likely to reduce the trade volume handled in Djibouti. </p>
<p>Djibouti is also a crucial location in <a href="https://more.bham.ac.uk/port-infrastructure/2023/03/21/djibouti-fiddles-amid-the-scramble-for-the-red-sea/">China’s</a> Belt and Road Initiative. China supports Djibouti’s port development, operates an international free trade zone, and funds the renovation of the railway to Ethiopia. </p>
<p>Eritrea and Egypt also support Somalia. This is mainly because their relations with Ethiopia have been marred with conflicts. Eritrea and Ethiopia fell out again after Ethiopia struck peace with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022. </p>
<p>Egypt is opposed to the building of Ethiopia’s hydroelectric <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66776733">Grand Renaissance Dam</a>, which increases Ethiopia’s control of the Nile waters on which both countries depend. Egypt and Eritrea are also not eager to see Ethiopia having a naval presence, and Egypt works against the UAE’s expansion of power in the Red Sea region. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>The regional Intergovernmental Authority for Development, chaired by Djibouti, recently convened an extraordinary meeting to discuss <a href="https://igad.int/communique-of-the-42nd-extraordinary-assembly-of-igad-heads-of-state-and-government/">tensions</a> between Somalia and Ethiopia. It affirmed the territorial integrity of Somalia, but also called for de-escalation and dialogue. </p>
<p>Ethiopia did not attend the meeting. But Ethiopia’s president, who uses access to the sea to mobilise public support, has a lot to lose by offending these states. The country’s international reputation has already suffered from allegations of war crimes and <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/09/1140872">mass atrocities in Tigray</a>. The government’s militarised response to opposition in several regions has had a negative impact on Ethiopia’s economy and contributed to <a href="https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/ethiopia/">food insecurity</a>. </p>
<p>The good news is that a violent confrontation between Ethiopia and Somalia seems unlikely. Ethiopia would risk political isolation, as major world powers and regional organisations, such as the African Union and Arab League, have confirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity. </p>
<p>The winner of rising political tensions in the region would be al-Shabaab, which is already calling Somalis to defend their land from foreign interference. </p>
<p>The most likely loser of the diplomatic row is Somaliland, which now seems even more unlikely to receive the international recognition it so craves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This author is part of a research project on Port Infrastructure, International Politics, Everyday Life in the Horn of Africa (<a href="http://portinfrastructure.org">http://portinfrastructure.org</a>) which received funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed in this article are solely the responsibility of the author. </span></em></p>If the international reactions are anything to go by, Ethiopia’s Red Sea port deal is easier said than done.Jutta Bakonyi, Professor in Development and Conflict, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159922023-10-25T03:54:46Z2023-10-25T03:54:46ZNational road-user charges are needed – and most people are open to it, our research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555716/original/file-20231025-23-x7jo6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5501%2C3667&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/law/2023/oct/18/why-the-high-court-struck-out-victorias-ev-tax-and-the-ripple-effects-of-the-decision#:%7E:text=Victoria%20introduced%20a%20distance%2Dbased,2.3c%20for%20each%20kilometre.">High Court</a> ruled last week that Victoria’s road-user charge for electric vehicle (EV) drivers is unconstitutional. Because the court decided it’s an excise, only the <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2023/HCA/30">Commonwealth</a> can now impose such a tax. </p>
<p>The Victorian government introduced the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-27/ombudsman-victoria-electric-vehicle-road-user-charge-unfair/102905834">controversial</a> distance-based charge in 2021. The court decision will likely derail similar <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/electric-vehicle-court-ruling-ups-pressure-for-federal-approach-20231018-p5ed55.html">plans by other states</a>. </p>
<p>Current road taxes are blunt instruments that don’t reflect the <a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/newsroom/why-we-should-be-taxing-australian-drivers-differently">true costs of driving to society</a>. The fuel excise does not properly account for traffic congestion or emissions. It makes no allowance for people’s ability to pay. Car registration fees are also not related to the amount of travel, congestion or emissions produced by driving. </p>
<p>Hence the need for road-user charges. To understand public attitudes to such charges in Australia, we surveyed more than 900 people in Melbourne and Sydney. The results of <a href="https://imoveaustralia.com/education/phd-student-profile/tariq-munir/">this research</a> showed a good appetite for road taxation reform in the nation’s two largest cities. </p>
<p>Only about a third of respondents opposed road-user charges to reduce traffic congestion in their cities. And support increased when they were told the revenue would be used to improve traffic infrastructure and public transport. The findings offer insights into how road-user charging could be rolled out successfully across the nation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-good-the-high-court-overturned-victorias-questionable-ev-tax-but-theres-a-sting-in-the-tail-215985">It's good the High Court overturned Victoria's questionable EV tax. But there's a sting in the tail</a>
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<h2>What do people think about road-user charges?</h2>
<p>For our research, we surveyed a representative sample of 929 people (373 in Melbourne and 556 in Sydney) in April 2022 (Melbourne) and November 2022 (Sydney). </p>
<p>A majority of respondents (70% in Sydney and 65% in Melbourne) supported the introduction of measures to reduce traffic congestion in their respective cities. </p>
<p>When specifically asked if they would support road-user charges, only 32% of respondents in both cities opposed the idea. Around 29% of respondents in Sydney and 34% of respondents in Melbourne were undecided. </p>
<p>They were then told the revenue raised would be used to improve all forms of transport infrastructure and services. Levels of opposition and uncertainty fell. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Stacked bar chart showing percentages supporting, opposing or undecided about road-user charges depending on where revenue is invested." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555728/original/file-20231025-23-8y2az3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>In particular, respondents in both cities were most supportive of road-user charges if the revenue raised was used to improve public transport. Opposition fell to 20% in Sydney and to 23% in Melbourne. The percentage of undecided respondents fell to 24% in Sydney and to 30% in Melbourne. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pie charts show percentage of respondents supporting, opposing or undecided about road-user charges if revenue is spent on improving public transport" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555731/original/file-20231025-19-xutsw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Around 96% of respondents in Melbourne owned a private car, compared to 90% in Sydney. These cars were the main means of transport for most respondents (75% Melbourne, 64% Sydney). Average vehicle occupancy was 1.25 people per vehicle in Melbourne and 1.27 in Sydney. </p>
<p>Sydney had a higher proportion of public transport users (27% Sydney, 16% Melbourne). Around 7% of respondents in both cities preferred walking and <a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-tiny-vehicles-would-deny-us-smarter-ways-to-get-around-our-cities-113111">micro-mobility</a>, such as bikes and scooters, as their main means of getting around.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Horizontal bar chart showing preferred forms of transport (by percentage of respondents) in Melbourne and Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555739/original/file-20231025-29-rz5mbp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-high-court-decision-on-electric-vehicles-will-make-charging-for-road-use-very-difficult-216107">The High Court decision on electric vehicles will make charging for road use very difficult</a>
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<h2>Savings affect willingness to pay road-user charges</h2>
<p>We found willingness to pay a road-user charge varies with the level of expected savings. </p>
<p>Around 66% of respondents in both cities were willing to pay a road-user charge if it saved them up to $800 a year on registration fees and fuel taxes. Another 13% of respondents in Sydney and 11% in Melbourne were willing to pay the charge if savings exceeded $800 a year. </p>
<p>Around 55% of respondents in Sydney and 46% in Melbourne would be willing to pay a congestion charge if it cut their total daily travel times by 10 to 30 minutes. Another 18% of respondents in both cities would pay the charge if it cut travel times by more than 30 minutes. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jonas Eliasson, architect of Stockholm’s congestion pricing scheme, explains how subtly nudging just a small percentage of drivers to stay off major roads can end traffic jams.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-drivers-who-paid-victorias-electric-vehicle-tax-be-able-to-get-their-money-back-216021">Will drivers who paid Victoria's electric vehicle tax be able to get their money back?</a>
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<h2>Why oppose road-user charges?</h2>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12048">factors</a> influence public opposition to road-user charging. These include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856419313175">distrust</a> in governments, uncertainty about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X10000326">benefits</a>, and concerns over <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9459-4">equity</a>. Other barriers include <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2020/4242964/">understanding</a> how the scheme works, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X19307450">complexity</a> of implementation, and uncertainty about how <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X10000326">revenues</a> will be used.</p>
<p>In our survey, the undecided respondents said they needed more information to better understand the user-pays approach and its benefits. International <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/12048">studies</a> have reported the same response. </p>
<p>Information campaigns to demystify road-user charging and highlight its benefits can win over undecided people. </p>
<h2>Road tax system is broken</h2>
<p>The road taxes in place today – which include fuel excise and motor vehicle ownership taxes – are near <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/no-choice-broken-taxes-must-be-fixed-20220210-p59vc7">breaking point</a>, according to political, policy and business leaders. <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-best-selling-electric-cars-so-far-in-2023">Soaring electric vehicle sales</a> will hasten the decline in fuel excise revenues. </p>
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<p>Victoria’s <a href="https://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/bills/zero-and-low-emission-vehicle-distance-based-charge-bill-2021">levy</a> of 2.8 cents for each kilometre travelled (2.3 cents for plug-in hybrids) was intended to raise revenue from drivers who don’t pay fuel excise. The High Court decision has prompted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/18/victoria-ev-tax-australia-state-taxes--revenue-electric-vehicles-cars-states-high-court-ruling">warnings</a> of major hits to state coffers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/tax-review-rudd-cautioned-on-road-user-charges-20100113-iw75b">Tax reviews</a>, peak bodies such as <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/research-transport-network-pricing/">Infrastructure Victoria</a> and experts have long called for road-user charges to replace current road taxes. </p>
<p>Aside from the decline in revenue, another problem with fuel excise is that drivers with different travel patterns pay the same tax. There will be drivers who travel in regional Victoria or in an outer suburb of Sydney for local shopping or school drop-offs who pay the same excise as a driver who travels into the city centre or other congested areas. This means fuel excise is less effective for reducing traffic congestion and emissions than road-user charges.</p>
<p>But to be effective and fair, these must be applied to all vehicles as part of a holistic national approach. It will help to manage travel demand, cut emissions and raise revenue to maintain transport infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/distance-based-road-charges-will-improve-traffic-and-if-done-right-wont-slow-australias-switch-to-electric-cars-150290">Distance-based road charges will improve traffic — and if done right won't slow Australia's switch to electric cars</a>
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<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>The High Court decision has placed road taxation reform squarely on the national agenda. But any road-user charging scheme that targets <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/treasurer-electric-car-tax-fuel-excise-revenue/">only electric vehicles</a> would be a missed opportunity for <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/worlds-worst-ev-policy-scrapped-by-high-court/">meaningful reform</a>.</p>
<p>Our survey findings show Australia is ready for a rational and transparent discussion about road-user charging on all vehicles, not only electric vehicles. </p>
<p>The findings show a majority of people would support such charges if they are transparent, equitable and replace or reduce other road taxes. Support would increase if the public is assured the revenue will be used to improve all transport infrastructure, not only roads. </p>
<p>If well planned and implemented, a national approach to road-user charges can raise enough revenue to replace the fuel excise tax. It will also ease congestion, promote sustainable transport and help achieve Australia’s targets for cutting transport emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hadi Ghaderi receives funding from the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, IVECO Trucks Australia limited, Innovative Manufacturing Cooperative Research Centre, Victoria Department of Education and Training, Bondi Laboratories, Australian Meat Processor Corporation, 460degrees and Passel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tariq Munir acknowledges the financial support received in the form of a PhD scholarship from Swinburne University and the government of Pakistan. He also acknowledges the PhD top-up scholarship received from the iMOVE CRC and supported by the Cooperative Research Centres program, an Australian government initiative.</span></em></p>Support for road-user charging strengthens when people are assured that revenue goes into reducing traffic congestion, maintaining transport infrastructure, improving public transport.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyHadi Ghaderi, Associate Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Swinburne University of TechnologyTariq Munir, PhD Candidate, Centre for Sustainable Infrastructure and Digital Construction, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071692023-06-08T20:37:01Z2023-06-08T20:37:01ZOvercrowded trains serve as metaphor for India in Western eyes – but they are a relic of colonialism and capitalism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531013/original/file-20230608-21-vya0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C573%2C4532%2C3010&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">By the end of the 19th century, railways were being used by millions across India.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/en-gare-des-hommes-montent-jusque-sur-le-toit-des-wagons-news-photo/947835870?adppopup=true">Keystone-France/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A devastating <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/04/what-caused-the-india-train-crash-a-visual-guide-to-what-we-know">rail crash</a> that left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/brothers-breadwinners-fathers-the-lives-lost-in-indias-train-disaster">almost 300 people dead</a> has refocused international attention on the importance of railways in the lives of Indians.</p>
<p>Indeed, to many Western observers, images of men and women crammed into overcrowded cars serve as a metaphor for modern India.</p>
<p>Take, for example, a report by German newspaper Der Spiegel on India’s population surpassing China’s. Published just weeks before the accident in Odisha province on June 2, the now <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-der-spiegel-racist-cartoon-population-b2327147.html">much-criticized cartoon</a> depicted a shabby Indian train <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65395860">crammed with passengers</a> rushing past a streamlined Chinese train with only two people in it.</p>
<p>Where does this enduring image in the West of Indian railways – and of India – come from? </p>
<p>As a scholar of Indian history and author of 2015 book “<a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/south-asian-history/tracks-change-railways-and-everyday-life-colonial-india?format=HB">Tracks of Change: Railways and Everyday Life in Colonial India</a>,” I believe the answers lie in the gigantic infrastructure projects of the 19th century – forged at the intersection of colonial dictates and capitalist demands.</p>
<h2>A carrier of freight, not people</h2>
<p>Railways remain the backbone of passenger traffic in India, transporting some <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2020/3/25/in-pictures-railways-indias-lifeline-come-to-a-halt">23 million people daily</a>. In the pre-pandemic 2018-19 financial year, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/railways/three-years-on-indian-railways-passenger-traffic-remains-below-pre-pandemic-numbers/articleshow/99458137.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst">7.7 billion passenger</a> journeys in India. In comparison, even after a dramatic post-pandemic increase, airline passenger traffic was <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/domestic-airlines-flew-123m-passengers-in-2022-dgca/articleshow/97148274.cms?from=mdr">123.2 million in 2022</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People are seen on a platform and hanging out of doorways on a train car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531016/original/file-20230608-19-suqccx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People board an overcrowded train at a railway station on the outskirts of New Delhi, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-board-an-overcrowded-train-at-a-railway-station-in-news-photo/1252255086?adppopup=true">Kabir Jhangiani/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Yet, when first planned in the 1840s, India’s railways were intended to primarily transport freight and livestock, not people.</p>
<p>Indians were thought <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/tracks-of-change/2393A3B1B77CF7F2B23C8C00DDA18442#:%7E:text=Tracks%20of%20Change%20explores%20how,process%20has%20shaped%20India's%20history.">unlikely</a> to become railway passengers by directors of the English East India Co., a merchant monopoly that gradually annexed and administered large parts of India under U.K. crown control.</p>
<p>Many people at the time disagreed that Indians were immobile people, however, pointing out that the country had a long history of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/india-in-the-world-economy/9079E07A2697FB6A122BEBFE3CC6FA13">global trade</a> across vast oceanic networks.</p>
<p>However, early colonial railway policy was driven by pervasive <a href="https://theconversation.com/orientalism-edward-saids-groundbreaking-book-explained-197429">Orientalist</a> imaginings of a people rendered immobile by poverty, living in isolated villages and constrained by religious restrictions prohibiting travel.</p>
<p>The trope <a href="https://marxists.architexturez.net/archive/marx/works/1853/07/22.htm">interlocked with colonial thinking</a> that railways would foster greater industrialization which in turn would further a capitalist economy.</p>
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<img alt="A modern high-speed train is seen in a station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531017/original/file-20230608-19-5m7lin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Vande Bharat Express train as seen in Kolkata, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vande-bharat-express-train-as-seen-at-howrah-station-in-news-photo/1245840303?adppopup=true">Debarchan Chatterjee/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>They also aligned with the practical needs of a colonial trading monopoly which needed raw materials for English industries, such as cotton, to be moved swiftly and efficiently from India’s interiors to port towns, from where they could be shipped.</p>
<h2>Relegated to cheap seats</h2>
<p>To <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/tracks-of-change/2393A3B1B77CF7F2B23C8C00DDA18442#:%7E:text=Tracks%20of%20Change%20explores%20how,process%20has%20shaped%20India's%20history.">induce the “natives</a>,” as the British often referred to their colonial subjects, to use railways, the colonial government pitched low fares, especially in third-class cars – the lowest and cheapest category of rail travel.</p>
<p>The decision to introduce lower fares seems at odds with the profit-driven aims of a capitalist venture, with money raised by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2113695">private companies</a> incorporated in the United Kingdom.</p>
<p>However, British capitalists and shareholders in these private ventures did not have to fear for their profits, which were underwritten by the Indian taxpayer. The colonial government of India guaranteed these companies a 5% annual return on their investment whether or not the venture turned a profit. </p>
<p>Despite the doubters, the new Indian <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/tracks-of-change/2393A3B1B77CF7F2B23C8C00DDA18442#:%7E:text=Tracks%20of%20Change%20explores%20how,process%20has%20shaped%20India's%20history.">railways attracted an increasing number of passengers</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/south-asian-history/tracks-change-railways-and-everyday-life-colonial-india?format=HB">half-million passengers recorded</a> in 1854 when tracks became operational increased to 26 million in 1875. By 1900, annual passenger figures stood at 175 million and then almost trebled to 520 million by 1919-20. By the time of the partition of India in 1947 it had risen to more than 1 billion passenger journeys annually. Indeed, images of overcrowded trains came to epitomize the upheaval of partition, with the rail system used to carry swaths of uprooted peoples across the soon-to-be Pakistan-India border.</p>
<p>Third-class passengers, overwhelmingly Indians, comprised almost 90% of this traffic.</p>
<p>These escalating figures did not, however, generate a lowering of fares. Nor did they result in any substantial improvements in the conditions of overcrowded, unsanitary third-class travel.</p>
<p>Instead, railway companies sought “the greatest economy of space and load,” as <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/history/south-asian-history/tracks-change-railways-and-everyday-life-colonial-india?format=HB">one rail manager put it</a>. Inadequate rolling stock, much of it imported, exacerbated matters.</p>
<h2>A tool for ‘self-composure’</h2>
<p>The generally British railway managers seemed disinclined to remedy systematic overcrowding, which included transporting passengers in wagons meant for livestock. Rather, they insisted that such overcrowding was caused by the peculiar habits and inclinations of Indian passengers: their alleged abhorrence of empty carriages and their inclination to follow one another “like sheep” into crowded carriages.</p>
<p>These attributes were soon rendered into a more public narrative, especially among Western mindsets. Journalist H. Sutherland Stark, writing for the industry publication <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/tracks-of-change/2393A3B1B77CF7F2B23C8C00DDA18442#:%7E:text=Tracks%20of%20Change%20explores%20how,process%20has%20shaped%20India's%20history.">Indian State Railways Magazine</a> in 1929, stated that though “unversed” in railway administration and traffic control, he knew railway facilities were not the problem. Rather, Indian passengers lacked the mental preparedness, “self-possession” and “method” necessary to travel like “sane human beings.”</p>
<p>Stark suggested passenger education as a solution to the perceived problem, making railway travel a tool for “self-composure and mass orderliness.” He was not the only one to suggest a congruence between rational railway travel and reasonable public behavior. In the 1910s, though condemning railway management for perpetuating the indignities that third-class passengers faced, the nationalist leader <a href="https://www.gandhimedia.org/read_more/writings/books/books_by_gandhi/english/WRBOMGEN0510_rs.pdf">Mahatma Gandhi</a> also suggested educating railway passengers as a means to create a civic body of citizens.</p>
<h2>A continuing metaphor</h2>
<p>More than a century later, this depiction endures, though, ironically, it now serves as a foil to understanding contemporary India. In a piece published in <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/318482381/DBAA8BBEEC8045B3PQ/1?accountid=14605&forcedol=true">The New York Times</a> on March 12, 2005, the author lauded the then-new Delhi metro, emphasizing that it had “none of the chaotic squalor of hawkers and beggars that characterizes mainline railroads in India, nor do desperate travelers hang from the sides of the trains.”</p>
<p>As the debate rages on whether safety has taken a back seat to “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/03/modi-has-spent-billions-modernising-indias-trains-but-safety-is-biggest-need">glossy modernization projects</a>” in India – early analyses suggest <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65801807">signaling failure</a> might have caused June 2, 2023, accident – railways continue to represent India’s history.</p>
<p>In the heyday of empire, they were deemed the technology through which Britain would drag India into capitalist modernity. In 1947, they became a leitmotif for the trauma of the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/32195/chapter-abstract/268346962?redirectedFrom=fulltext">partition</a> that accompanied the independence of India and Pakistan. As the coverage of Odisha accident reminds us, it continues to be a metaphor in the West for evaluating contemporary India.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ritika Prasad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A deadly crash in India that claimed the lives of around 300 people has refocused international attention on the importance of railways in the country.Ritika Prasad, Associate Professor of History, University of North Carolina – CharlotteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1928482022-10-26T05:05:40Z2022-10-26T05:05:40ZBudget restraint? When it comes to transport projects, it’s hard to find<p>“Restraint” – that’s what Treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed as the watchword of Tuesday’s federal budget. Perhaps the claim can be made in general, but when it comes to transport infrastructure, the budget is remarkable not for how different it is to budgets past, but how similar. It has left plenty of opportunities for actual restraint for next time around, in May 2023.</p>
<p>The first similarity to budgets past is how much is being committed to transport infrastructure. </p>
<p>This year the total is about 0.6% of GDP, much like Josh Frydenberg’s budgets of the past three years. That equates to A$13.4 billion this year, rising to about A$15 billion for each of the next three years. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing level of transport spending in federal budgets, 2012 to 2022" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491831/original/file-20221026-21-7gokc8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>What Frydenberg and Chalmers have in common is that they have presided over a big shift upwards in the total spend, from around 0.4% of GDP under their predecessors Scott Morrison, Joe Hockey and Wayne Swan. It’s hardly “restraint”.</p>
<h2>Headline numbers are inflated</h2>
<p>The second similarity to budgets past is the irresistible temptation to quote far bigger numbers than are actually committed in the budget. </p>
<p>It’s all very well to say what you plan to deliver in ten years and beyond, but the budget is all about what you’re committing this year and the following three. It’s just like legislating stage 3 tax cuts in 2019; three years and a pandemic later, it’s hard to backtrack.</p>
<p>The problem is exacerbated because the headline number includes projects already committed long ago. The claim in the budget glossy is that the Albanese government “is delivering on its election commitments as part of the more than $120 billion pipeline of investment in transport infrastructure over the next 10 years”. </p>
<p>But what’s actually committed in the budget for additional road and rail is $8.1 billion of new money over ten years. Most of the eye-watering $120 billion predates this government.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1400202528340385794"}"></div></p>
<p>For example, New South Wales residents may applaud the promise to spend $300 million on western Sydney roads and $500 million on early works for high-speed rail, and a total NSW commitment of $1.4 billion over ten years. But it’s hard to square that with the infrastructure minister’s <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/investing-australias-future">promises</a> of $5.25 billion for the Sydney Metro to Western Sydney Airport, and $1.6 billion for the M12 motorway. </p>
<p>Similarly, Victorians may eagerly anticipate the $125 million for the Barwon Heads Road upgrade and $2.2 billion towards the Suburban Rail Loop. There’s a total commitment of $2.6 billion for the state over ten years. But how does that line up with the minister’s <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/investing-australias-future">promises</a> of $5 billion for Melbourne Airport Rail, along with $448 million for Gippsland Rail?</p>
<h2>Infrastructure Australia bypassed</h2>
<p>The third similarity to budgets past is how projects are selected for funding.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is proud of Infrastructure Australia. It’s the body he set up as infrastructure minister in the Rudd government to help elected representatives who, <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22chamber/hansardr/5c41e365-7ca7-47aa-a810-1c6e44b75e5e/0101%22">he said</a>, struggled “with the need to take a long-term non-partisan view” of infrastructure. Yet this budget includes billions of dollars for projects that should have gone through an Infrastructure Australia assessment, but haven’t. </p>
<p>The standout is Melbourne’s Suburban Rail Loop. It’s the signature project of the Andrews state government as it heads into a November election. The project was announced three months out from the previous Victorian election, and a business case wasn’t published until three years after the decision to invest. It’s very controversial. </p>
<p>The state government <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/578281/SRL-Business-and-Investment-Case.pdf">claims</a> that building the east and north sections of the rail loop and operating them for 50 years will cost $31 billion to $51 billion. In stark contrast, the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office <a href="https://pbo.vic.gov.au/response/2820">calculates</a> it will cost $200 billion.</p>
<p>What does Infrastructure Australia think? It <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/melbourne-middle-and-outer-suburban-transport-connectivity">considers</a> the project a very long way from investment-ready. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1584832271822909440"}"></div></p>
<p>Another standout is a $500 million down payment on high-speed rail. Even without a current business case, the government has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/25977/&sid=0005">declared</a> it is “absolutely committed” to the project. If the numbers run in 2013 were correct, this project will cost at least $130 billion, and will compete with the since-begun Western Sydney Airport. </p>
<p>What does Infrastructure Australia think? Again, it <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/corridor-preservation-east-coast-high-speed-rail">considers</a> that even corridor preservation for the project is a long way from investment-ready. </p>
<p>A third standout is $586 million to upgrade the Bruce Highway through Brisbane’s outer northern suburbs. The Bruce has had a massive program of upgrades over many years. Many sections have been assessed by Infrastructure Australia – but not this one.</p>
<p>None of these decisions could be described as restrained, and there are many similar.</p>
<h2>Still waiting for rigorous assessments</h2>
<p>Of course, it’s not easy to inherit a swag of major projects from the previous government, many of which are begun or at least anticipated. And it’s to this government’s credit that it has moved $6.5 billion worth of these projects to beyond the budget forward estimates, in recognition that the engineering construction sector is already struggling to keep up with demand. But in this environment, it makes little sense for the government to have thrown its weight behind new commitments, such as east-coast high-speed rail and the Suburban Rail Loop, that will tie its hands for decades to come.</p>
<p>Next time around, the treasurer should insist that each individual project up for funding consideration has been properly assessed by the government’s own independent advisory body. If the project is at too early a stage, the government shouldn’t invest public money in it. </p>
<p>A more rigorous project-by-project assessment would help the government determine how much of the transport spend is really worth it. Let’s hope. When it comes to transport, restraint is hard to find.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. Marion Terrill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any other company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.</span></em></p>It’s easy to spot the similarities in how this first Labor budget and its Coalition predecessors approached transport projects. Their eye-watering spending isn’t supported by proper assessments.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1794642022-03-20T19:01:28Z2022-03-20T19:01:28ZAs federal government spending on small transport projects creeps up, marginal seats get a bigger share<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452684/original/file-20220317-8303-1k7qwtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5448%2C4066&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Brace for the federal election – the transport promises have begun. Some are pretty big, such as Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce’s A$678 million for the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/coalition-s-678m-outback-road-plan-links-perth-to-townsville-20220220-p59y1n#:%7E:text=The%20Coalition%20is%20sharpening%20up,and%20other%20politically%20contested%20regions.">Outback Highway</a>, and Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s $500 million down-payment on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-promises-500m-for-sydney-to-newcastle-leg-of-future-high-speed-rail-20220101-p59l8m.html">faster rail</a> between Newcastle and Sydney. If history is any guide, a rush of small local promises won’t be far behind.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roundabouts-overpasses-carparks-hauling-the-federal-government-back-to-its-proper-role-in-transport-projects">new report</a> from Grattan Institute reveals, federal government spending on small local transport projects has grown dramatically in recent years. </p>
<p>Under the two most recent Labor terms of government, each electorate received an average of $26 million worth of small transport projects (projects worth up to $10 million each) per year. In the following three Coalition terms, that number increased tenfold to $264 million per electorate per year, on average. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452931/original/file-20220317-12943-1fsmla8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal government spending on small local transport projects has grown dramatically in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But just because there’s more spending on small local projects, does it follow that it’s partisan political spending, or “pork-barrelling”? This new report shows what really matters is whether or not the money is allocated under objective, transparent criteria.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/of-australias-32-biggest-infrastructure-projects-just-eight-had-a-public-business-case-166847">Of Australia's 32 biggest infrastructure projects, just eight had a public business case</a>
</strong>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A car park is seen from the air" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452685/original/file-20220317-8693-193flae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One part of the Urban Congestion Fund, the $660 million commuter carpark fund, attracted public interest after the auditor-general published a scathing report on it last year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking a closer look at transport spending patterns</h2>
<p>Two long-standing transport programs allocate federal funds according to relatively objective criteria: the <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/local-initiatives/black-spot-program/index.aspx">Black Spot</a> program, and <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/local-initiatives/roads-to-recovery-program/index.aspx">Roads to Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>The Black Spot program helps fund road-safety initiatives. To be eligible for funding, initiatives must have a benefit-to-cost ratio of at least 2-to-1, and the site must have a history of at least three casualty crashes in the past five years. The program was worth $104 million in 2020–21.</p>
<p>Roads to Recovery helps fund maintenance of local roads. The federal government provides funding to all local councils, using a formula based on population and road length. The program was worth $592 million in 2020–21.</p>
<p>Both programs are designed to favour rural and remote electorates. And that’s what’s happened under both Labor and Coalition governments, even though rural and remote seats are mostly held by the Coalition, often very safely. </p>
<p>In urban areas, too, the pattern of distribution of funds under these two programs has been remarkably similar under both Labor and Coalition governments. Black Spot and Roads to Recovery funds have been about as likely to go to safe as to marginal seats, and about as likely to go to government-held as to opposition-held seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452932/original/file-20220317-17-rjud8o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two long-standing transport programs allocate federal funds according to relatively objective criteria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, the $4.9 billion <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/national-initiatives/urban-congestion-fund.aspx">Urban Congestion Fund</a> does not have eligibility criteria on its website. It’s the clearest case of a slush fund on the federal government’s books.</p>
<p>One component of the Urban Congestion Fund, the $660 million commuter carpark fund, has attracted significant public interest since the auditor-general published a scathing <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/administration-commuter-car-park-projects-within-the-urban-congestion-fund">report</a> on it last year. But the allocation of the remaining $4.2 billion has received less attention. </p>
<p>Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/roundabouts-overpasses-carparks-hauling-the-federal-government-back-to-its-proper-role-in-transport-projects">latest report</a> shows marginal seats clearly get a bigger share of funds than safe seats under the Urban Congestion Fund. More funding has gone to the most marginal seats, such as Lindsay in Sydney, Higgins in Melbourne, Moreton in Brisbane, Hasluck in Perth, and Boothby in Adelaide. </p>
<p>And seats held by a Coalition member get a bigger share of the funds than seats held by Labor, the Greens, other minor parties, or independents. </p>
<p>For instance, the luckiest electorate in Sydney was Lindsay, centred on Penrith, which received close to $200 million; Melbourne’s Aston, centred on Boronia, received close to $300 million; and Brisbane’s Forde, centred on Beenleigh, received $234 million.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the electorate containing Sydney’s CBD got no funding, the electorate containing Melbourne’s CBD got $5 million, and the electorate containing Brisbane’s CBD got $2 million.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452965/original/file-20220318-10625-i67js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marginal seats clearly get a bigger share of funds than safe seats under the Urban Congestion Fund.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some might say a similar pattern of allocation of small funds, regardless of which party is in government, looks like a fair distribution. But there’s a broader issue: there has been massive growth in these small grants in recent years. </p>
<p>Aggregate federal transport spending has crept up only modestly over recent years, so a bigger proportion of the aggregate is now being directed to small projects – which is the proper and agreed remit of the state or local government, not the federal government. </p>
<p>The spending on small local projects by a national government should stop. Whichever party wins the 2022 federal election should strengthen the transport spending guardrails. </p>
<p>Instead of sprinkling public money on small projects around the country, the federal government should retreat to its proper transport funding role as a national government – no more roundabouts, overpasses, or carparks, just nationally significant infrastructure funded in an even-handed way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452689/original/file-20220317-8334-13aoelz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Instead of sprinkling public money on small projects around the country, the federal government should retreat to its proper transport funding role as a national government – no more roundabouts, overpasses, or carparks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/older-women-often-rent-in-poverty-shared-home-equity-could-help-177452">Older women often rent in poverty – shared home equity could help</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. Marion Terrill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any other company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.</span></em></p>There’s more spending on small local projects, so does it follow that it’s ‘pork-barrelling’? A new report shows what really matters is if the money is allocated under objective, transparent criteria.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1743412022-01-06T19:07:14Z2022-01-06T19:07:14ZVital Signs: Sydney to Newcastle fast rail makes sense. Making trains locally does not<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439600/original/file-20220106-13-353po3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5499%2C3655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">this week announced</a> a commitment to funding high-speed rail between Sydney and Newcastle.</p>
<p>At speeds of more than 250km/h, this would cut the 150-minute journey from Sydney to Newcastle to just 45 minutes. Commuting between the two cities would be a lot more feasible.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Proposed route for high-speed Melbourne to Brisbane rail.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/corridor-preservation-east-coast-high-speed-rail">Infrastructure Australia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Sydney-Newcastle link would be a first step in a grand plan to link the Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane corridor by high-speed rail.</p>
<p>Albanese also wants the trains to be built at home, <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">saying</a> “we will look build as much of our fast and high-speed rail future in Australia as is possible”.</p>
<p>Of course, this idea has been around for a long time. Nobody has ever got the numbers to stack up before.</p>
<p>Federal infrastructure minister Paul Fletcher made the obvious but reasonable point that such a rail link would be very expensive. </p>
<p>“It is $200 to $300 billion on any credible estimate,” he <a href="https://newcastleweekly.com.au/coalition-pulls-brakes-on-labors-fast-rail-plans/">said in response</a> to Labor’s announcement. “It has to be paid for, and that means higher taxes”. </p>
<p>Or does it?</p>
<h2>Social cost-benefit analysis</h2>
<p>Traditional cost-benefit analysis is how governments tend to make decisions about big infrastructure projects like this. Figure out the costs (such as $300 billion) and then figure out the benefits. Adjust for timing differences and when money is spent and received, and then compare. </p>
<p>This generates an “internal rate of return” (IRR) on the money invested. It’s what private companies do all the time. One then compares that IRR to some reference or “hurdle” rate. For a private company that might be 12% or so. For governments it is typically lower.</p>
<p>An obvious question this raises is: what are the benefits?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression by Phil Belbin of the proposed VFT (Very Fast Train) in the 1980s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Comeng</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>If all one is willing to count are things such as ticket fares, the numbers will almost never stack up. But that’s far too narrow a way to think about the financial benefits. </p>
<p>A Sydney-Newcastle high-speed rail link would cut down on travel times, help ease congestion in Sydney, ease housing affordability pressures in Sydney, improve property values along the corridor and in Newcastle, provide better access to education and jobs, and more.</p>
<p>The point is one has to think about the social value from government investments, not just the narrow commercial value. Alex Rosenberg, Rosalind Dixon and I provided a framework for this kind of “social return accounting” in a <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/social-return-accounting.pdf">report</a> published in 2018.</p>
<h2>Newcastle might make sense, Brisbane might not</h2>
<p>I haven’t done the social cost-benefit analysis for this rail link, but the social return being greater than the cost is quite plausible.</p>
<p>The other thing to remember is that the return a government should require has fallen materially in recent years. The Australian government can borrow for 10 years at just 1.78%, as opposed to <a href="http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-historical-data/australia/10-years/">well over 5%</a> before the financial crisis of 2008.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-get-moving-with-the-affordable-medium-speed-alternatives-to-the-old-dream-of-high-speed-rail-95854">Let's get moving with the affordable medium-speed alternatives to the old dream of high-speed rail</a>
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<p>I’m less sure about the Brisbane to Melbourne idea. The cost would be dramatically higher for obvious reasons, as well as the fact that the topography en route to Brisbane is especially challenging. </p>
<p>Nobody is going to commute from Sydney to Brisbane by rail, and the air routes between the three capitals are well serviced.</p>
<h2>Transport policy is not industry policy</h2>
<p>The decision about building a Sydney-Newcastle rail link is, and should be kept, completely separate from where the trains are made. Transport policy shouldn’t be hijacked for industry policy.</p>
<p>To be fair, Newcastle has a long and proud history of <a href="https://www.ugllimited.com/en/our-sectors/transport">manufacturing rolling stock</a>, at what was the Goninan factory at Broadmeadow – much of it for export. </p>
<p>But ask yourself how sustainable that industry looks in Australia, absent massive government support. Can it stand on its own?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">Look beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus</a>
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<p>It’s also true there have been some recent high-profile procurement disasters buying overseas trains. </p>
<p>Sydney’s light-rail project has run massively late and over budget, with Spanish company Acciona getting an extra A$600 million due to the project being more difficult than expected. </p>
<p>Then <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/transport-minister-expects-spanish-manufacturer-to-pay-for-cracked-trams-20211110-p597tq.html">cracks were found</a> in all 12 trams for the city’s inner-west line, putting them out of service for 18 months.</p>
<p>These are terrible bungles due to the government agreeing to poorly written contracts with sophisticated counterparties. When contracts don’t specify contingencies there is the possibility of what economists call the “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1530-9134.2009.00236.x">hold-up problem</a>”. </p>
<p>But these problems could have occurred with a local maker too.</p>
<h2>The Tinbergen Rule</h2>
<p>An enduring lesson from economics is the Tinbergen Rule – named after <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1969/tinbergen/facts/">Jan Tinbergen</a>, winner of the first Nobel prize for economics. </p>
<p>This rule says for each policy challenge one requires an independent policy instrument. This can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-evergrande-may-survive-but-for-its-executives-expect-a-fate-worse-than-debt-168930">widely applied</a>. But here the lesson is particularly clear.</p>
<p>Addressing housing affordability is a good idea, and a Sydney-Newcastle link could help with that. But if Labor want a jobs policy it should develop one. </p>
<p>The more TAFE places Labor has already announced is a reasonable start. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-we-need-to-make-things-in-australia-but-not-like-in-the-past-148084">Vital Signs: we need to make things in Australia, but not like in the past</a>
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<p>Reviving 1970s-style industry policy – something that has almost never worked – is not a good move. Governments are lousy at picking winners. The public invariably ends up paying more for less, and the jobs are typically transient.</p>
<p>But aside from this conflation of policy goals, Albanese deserves credit for being bold about the future of high-speed rail in Australia. </p>
<p><iframe id="H9PVD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/H9PVD/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is President of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese’s plan for high-speed rail between Sydney and Newcastle could well be worth the cost, so long as he doesn’t muddy it with 1970s-style industry policy.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1723132021-11-24T14:39:36Z2021-11-24T14:39:36ZNigeria’s food inflation: losers, winners and a possible solution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433182/original/file-20211122-27-1y3svoh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The World Bank says Nigeria's surging inflation had pushed an estimated seven million citizens below poverty line in 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Olukayode Jaiyeola/NurPhoto via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent inflation numbers from Nigeria are creating serious concern over the <a href="https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/factsheets/factsheet-whats-behind-nigerias-rising-cost-living">rising cost</a> of food items in the country. But this is not Nigerians’ first encounter with food prices running hot, as the spikes <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/rising-food-costs-add-to-misery-of-nigeria-s-high-unemployment">date back</a> roughly two decades.</p>
<p>Between January 2003 and August 2021, the food inflation rate has raced to three major peaks. The first and highest was about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15140326.2020.1743103">38%</a> in August 2005, more than 16 years ago. </p>
<p>The second, about <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198718574.001.0001/acprof-9780198718574-chapter-13">21%</a>, was in July 2008. The third – the second-highest in 20 years – was about <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2021/04/22/nigerians-lament-rising-cost-of-living-as-food-prices-soar-inflation-at-4-year-high//">23%</a> in March 2021. </p>
<p>Many Nigerians believe that either the rising dollar or middlemen, or both, are to blame.</p>
<p>But there is another factor at the root of the problem: the average cost of transporting food from the comparatively more productive Northern states to least-producing Southern states within the country. Efficient transport infrastructure and local refining of fuel are key to solving the problem. </p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>I obtained and used <a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1241097">monthly data</a> for the period from January 2017 to August 2021 from the National Bureau of Statistics. </p>
<p>The data relates to prices of 43 frequently consumed food items in Nigeria, including gari (cassava flour), rice, maize, beans, red oil, vegetable oil, meat, chicken, eggs, potatoes, yam and fish. It covers the 36 states in the country, including the federal capital.</p>
<p>I observed that all the states with the lowest food prices are in the north (Kano, Katsina, Gombe, Kebbi, Niger) and all the states with the highest food prices are in the south (Imo, Anambra, Rivers, Enugu, Bayelsa).</p>
<p>It’s clear that the north ‘feeds’ the south. But the north is not able to feed itself equally well. More than 25 million people (22% of the population) in the north are unable to spend roughly N200 (US$0.48) per day on food, compared to just 4 million (4% of the population) in the south. </p>
<p>I based my calculations on household-level welfare information collected by the national bureau of statistics between September 2018 and October 2019, and an annual food poverty line of N81,767 (US$198). </p>
<p>In doing so, I considered owned-food production, that is food not bought from the market but farmed and consumed by the poor. This is in order to account for food items farmers may cultivate directly for their consumption. </p>
<p>Farmers in the north are not benefiting (or seeing their incomes rise) as a result of rising food prices. Inflation is not transferring wealth from states that don’t produce food to states that do. Other factors such as the cost of imported petroleum products is mopping up the rise in prices.</p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Rising average diesel prices in cheap-food states are linked to rising food prices in expensive-food states. Within the study period, diesel prices have risen by a national average of 67%. </p>
<p>Regionally, food items are usually transported on diesel-powered vehicles rather than petrol-powered vehicles. Since vehicles transporting food items from the north to the south will usually fill their fuel tanks in the north, it is plausible to compare diesel prices in the north with food prices in the south.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433087/original/file-20211122-25-qs7b2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author using data from the National Bureau of Statitstics, Nigeria</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The recent sharp, steady spike in food prices started in August 2019. Nationally, between this period and August 2021, average food prices rose by roughly 18%, but lower in the north (8%) and highest in the south: 25%. </p>
<p>Apparently, the south is driving the rise in national food prices. It contributes 78% to the overall increase. </p>
<p>This fact, along with the diesel price connection, shows that the cost of transport is the culprit. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433088/original/file-20211122-15-5mklti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author using data from the National Bureau of Statitstics, Nigeria</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The chart above shows the relationship between the average fuel prices in five Nigerian states with the lowest food prices and the cost of food items in five Nigerian states with the highest average food prices. </p>
<p>It indicates a strong positive link between the two variables. For instance, an additional one Naira in the price of diesel in the north is expected to result in an additional five Naira in average food prices in the south.</p>
<p>Consumers of food items transported from the north to the south are paying a substantial part of the food inflation burden. They are the ‘losers’. But that doesn’t mean the northern farmers are winners. </p>
<p>Food prices in the south are higher than food prices in the north by an amount almost equivalent to the cost of transporting the food items from the north to the south. </p>
<p>Therefore, the likely winners may be living outside Nigeria: the oil marketers and those supplying refined petroleum products to Nigeria. About <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/07/18/a-look-at-fuel-importation-with-pib/">80%</a> of the country’s diesel is imported. </p>
<h2>Rise of the dollar</h2>
<p>Many Nigerians have the view that the depreciating value of their local currency is responsible for food inflation. </p>
<p>There is some truth in this claim. Based on a <a href="https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/nada/index.php/catalog/68">2019 survey</a> by the national bureau of statistics, 32% of Nigerian households reported buying imported rice. The price of imported rice will rise with the rising value of the dollar. </p>
<p>Based on my own calculations using data from the national bureau of statistics, I found that locally cultivated food items are responsible for 85% of the surge in food prices between August 2019 and September 2021. Imported food items are not driving up the food inflation rate, as foreign rice accounts for just about 2% of the food inflation.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>There are two ways to address food inflation in Nigeria. First, close the inter-regional price differences by setting up a more efficient transport system that connects the two major regions of the country. </p>
<p>One of the ongoing railroads projects in the country, linking Nigeria’s two commercial capitals – Lagos in the south and Kano in the north – is a welcome development. </p>
<p>Second, since Nigeria imports over <a href="https://www.pwc.com/ng/en/assets/pdf/nigerias-refining-revolution.pdf">80%</a> of its petroleum products, local pump prices must be divorced from changes in international oil prices if they are to be kept stable.</p>
<p>One way to do this is for the country to refine its fuel needs locally. This brings to fore the forthcoming <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/regional-news/west-africa/worlds-largest-oil-refinery-project-to-help-meet-nigerias-oil-demands/">Dangote refinery</a>, which is expected to be the largest in the world. If it succeeds, it will play a key role in revamping Africa’s largest economy. It will <a href="https://thenationonlineng.net/the-nigerian-economy-to-rise-from-the-ashes-by-2030/">raise</a> Nigeria’s external reserves by replacing imports of refined petroleum products that cost about $7-$10 billion annually.</p>
<p>However, there are two vital questions that Dangote, the federal government of Nigeria and their deal makers must answer. First, the refinery is expected to pump and refine <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/06/06/news/economy/nigeria-dangote-energy-oil-refinery/index.html">650,000 barrels</a> of crude oil per day. Will it pay for the oil in dollars? Otherwise, the refinery will cut Nigeria’s flow of foreign exchange by over $60 billion annually. This is based on my estimate using data on oil prices and oil production.</p>
<p>Second, how will the pump price be set? If the government steps back from its refining business and therefore stops setting the pump price as it is currently doing, Mr Dangote could possibly rule the Nigerian oil market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zuhumnan Dapel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Food inflation figures in Nigeria give cause for concern. Accusing fingers are pointed at rising dollars, farmers and middlemen, but this expert says the can may have been placed on the wrong heads.Zuhumnan Dapel, Fellow at the Center for Global Development at the Scottish Institute for Research in Economics, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611832021-06-07T20:06:10Z2021-06-07T20:06:10ZWe all have to walk across roads — why aren’t pedestrians a focus of road safety?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404410/original/file-20210604-23-1p84hji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C405%2C5419%2C3607&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/over-twenty-pedestrians-crossing-street-australia-1708808719">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In May 2021 a B-double truck mounted a kerb when turning a corner in Melbourne, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/police-investigated-serious-crash-after-truck-ploughed-into-pedestrians-and-left-the-scene/news-story/ce7a0c58f02c9717cf10542cf1c0d11c">injuring five pedestrians</a>. In February 2020 a drunk driver drove onto a footpath in Sydney, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-09/drunk-driver-samuel-davidson-jailed-for-oatlands-crash/100057958">killing four children and injuring three others</a> as they walked to get ice-creams. These incidents are just two of many grim reminders that pedestrians are an especially vulnerable group of road users.</p>
<p>“Pedestrians” includes most of us as we walk along or across roads, even if it is just to get to our car. Children, young people, city residents, older people and people on low incomes are <a href="https://www.elsevier.com/books/slow-cities/tranter/978-0-12-815316-1">especially reliant on walking</a> rather than driving.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slaves-to-speed-wed-all-benefit-from-slow-cities-152756">Slaves to speed, we'd all benefit from 'slow cities'</a>
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<p>Pedestrians, along with cyclists and motorcyclists, are most at risk of injury and death when involved in a collision on the roads. In a crash, pedestrians are <a href="https://www.victoriawalks.org.au/Assets/Files/Final%20Victoria%20Walks%20submission%20on%20Aus%20Road%20Safety.pdf">four times more likely</a> to be injured than those in a vehicle.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/road_trauma_australia_2019_statistical_summary.pdf">road toll has decreased</a> over recent decades largely because fewer people in cars are dying. Pedestrian deaths have decreased much more slowly. In the decade to 2019, road deaths of car occupants fell <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/road_trauma_australia_2019_statistical_summary.pdf">three times as fast</a> as for vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists). </p>
<h2>What are governments doing to protect pedestrians?</h2>
<p>Australia has had many parliamentary inquiries and state and federal road safety strategies in recent years. A federal <a href="https://www.officeofroadsafety.gov.au/">Office of Road Safety</a> was created in 2019. However, the recommended road safety measures usually improve safety for people in vehicles or improve traffic flow. These measures do nothing for pedestrian safety.</p>
<p>Government reports and bodies have recently begun talking about the “<a href="https://www.roadsafety.gov.au/nrss/safe-system">safe system</a>” approach. This approach is supposed to take a holistic view, sharing the responsibility for reducing risk by improving the safety of roads, vehicles and road rules, as well as driver behaviour. While some versions of this approach consider the safety of all road users, including pedestrians, this has not filtered through to government policies.</p>
<p>Some states have adopted climate change plans or strategies that promote walking and cycling. The <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/climate-change/climate-change-action-plan-2021-2025">South Australian Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025</a>, for instance, promises the state government will work towards a low-emissions transport system, improve public transport and encourage “active travel” – walking and cycling. </p>
<p>However, since the launch of the plan the state government has <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/news/media-releases/news/better-train-services-right-on-schedule-as-drivers-sign-up">privatised trains</a> and <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/news/media-releases/news/new-works-to-start-on-north-south-corridor">announced new roadworks</a> to improve the flow of cars and freight vehicles. They are clearly paying little attention to the needs of pedestrians.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<h2>Safety affects everyone’s right to mobility</h2>
<p>Australian governments neglect other perspectives such as the right to mobility for all. The <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a>, signed by Australia, recognises the right to liberty of movement. The <a href="https://www.un.org/disabilities/documents/convention/convoptprot-e.pdf">Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities</a> recognises the rights to access to transport and to personal mobility. </p>
<p>Our approach to road safety should, as <a href="https://www.victoriawalks.org.au/about/">Victoria Walks</a> <a href="https://www.victoriawalks.org.au/Assets/Files/Final%20Victoria%20Walks%20submission%20on%20Aus%20Road%20Safety.pdf">argues</a>:</p>
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<p>“[…] consider road safety as part of mobility for all people, whether they drive or not, and transport as part of the bigger liveability picture”. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another possible perspective is “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">liveable communities</a>”. The concept of liveability promotes the critical factors of access to public transport, and walking and cycling infrastructure. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">How do we create liveable cities? First, we must work out the key ingredients</a>
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<p>So, how are Australian state and territory governments recognising our right to mobility and helping to build liveable communities for all?</p>
<p>In 2020, the Commonwealth Parliament’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Road_Safety">Joint Select Committee on Road Safety</a> received many submissions from organisations concerned with pedestrian safety. Its <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Former_Committees/Road_Safety/RoadSafety/Report">final report</a>, released in October 2020, contains 22 recommendations. Yet none of these focus specifically on pedestrian safety, although “pedestrian awareness” is mentioned in relation to driver training.</p>
<h2>How to make communities safer and more liveable</h2>
<p>Recommendations in the <a href="https://www.victoriawalks.org.au/Assets/Files/Final%20Victoria%20Walks%20submission%20on%20Aus%20Road%20Safety.pdf">Victoria Walks submission</a> to the select committee covered topics such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>the design of crossings and intersections</li>
<li>maintaining footpaths and walking routes</li>
<li>banning e-scooters from footpaths</li>
<li>reducing speed limits in residential areas</li>
<li>increasing investment in public transport</li>
<li>expanding the range of data collected on pedestrian injuries and fatalities. </li>
</ul>
<p>The committee’s final recommendations reflected none of these points.</p>
<p>The Office of Road Safety is yet to release its National Road Safety Strategy. It <a href="https://www.officeofroadsafety.gov.au/nrss/about/frequently-asked-questions">says</a> the strategy will consider “vulnerable road users” as a whole group. This approach fails to adequately consider the needs of pedestrians separately from motorcyclists and cyclists. </p>
<p>The previous <a href="https://www.roadsafety.gov.au/nrss">National Road Safety Strategy 2011–2020</a> did include reducing “the number of serious casualties among pedestrians and cyclists” as one of its “major strategic challenges”. This suggests pedestrians are receiving even less attention now than they were a decade ago.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Some government publications recognise pedestrians as “<a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/road_trauma_australia_2019_statistical_summary.pdf">vulnerable road users</a>”. Yet almost no attention is paid to the most vulnerable pedestrians, namely older people, children and people with disability.</p>
<p>Governments are prioritising the flow of traffic, including of freight. They argue that’s good for jobs and economic growth. </p>
<p>There is little political will to discourage people from driving, to reduce speed limits, to prioritise walking (and cycling) infrastructure and to increase public transport funding. All of these measures contribute to mobility for all – including children, older people and people with disability. And that, in turn, will make our communities more liveable and sustainable.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>I would like to acknowledge the work of my research assistant Kate Leeson and former colleague Peter Lumb.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a frequent pedestrian, which involves crossing major roads without pedestrian safety infrastructure. </span></em></p>While the road toll has come down over the decades, it’s largely a result of fewer car occupants dying. Pedestrian deaths have barely changed for a decade, but they remain a road safety blind spot.Margaret Brown, Adjunct Research Fellow, UniSA Justice and Society, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604592021-05-16T19:54:44Z2021-05-16T19:54:44ZRise of transport megaprojects adds to Australian taxpayers’ risk of paying too much<p>When governments decide to build a new road, bridge or train line, their first concern should be getting it at the cheapest possible long-term price for a given quality standard. But our new report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Megabang for Megabucks</a>, shows cost management is rarely top of mind for governments. And, with the trend towards ever-larger projects, the risk that a lack of competition for contracts will push up prices is very real.</p>
<p>Australia is an expensive place to build large transport projects. An <a href="https://transitcosts.com/">international study</a> of rail projects found costs in Australia are in the top quarter of 27 OECD countries. Our costs are much higher than in many other rich countries: 26% higher than in Canada, 29% higher than in Japan, and more than three times as high as in Spain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing average costs per kilometre of railway infrastructure by country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes all OECD countries in the study. Costs converted to US dollars on a purchasing power parity basis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://transitcosts.com/">Data source: Transit Costs Project, Levy (2020)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, international comparisons are fraught. The cost of any particular project depends on local factors such as geology, location and the extent of the existing network.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But competition among construction firms is crucial if taxpayers are going to get the best price. Robust <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiBRCBicGQg">competition</a> encourages firms to bid as low as they can and to innovate. If there is a field of potential bidders on megaproject contracts and the market is open to new entrants, there is also less opportunity for firms to <a href="https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/collusion-in-public-procurement-contracts">collude</a> by market-sharing, bid-rigging or price-fixing.</p>
<h2>Bigger contracts reduce competition</h2>
<p>Megaprojects – projects costing more than A$1 billion – are typically broken up into a handful of contracts. For the smaller contracts – worth A$500 million or less – there are few concerns about competition: many firms can bid for and win these contracts. But the larger the contract, the thinner the potential field of construction firms gets. </p>
<p>Australia’s “big three” or “tier one” firms – CPB, John Holland and Acciona – win the vast majority of contracts over $1 billion, either independently or in a joint venture with other firms, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of contracts over $1 billion awarded to firms of different sizes since 2006" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: We classify John Holland, CIMIC Group firms CPB Contractors (formerly Leighton Holdings) and Thiess, Lendlease, Bilfinger Berger (including.
Valemus firms Abigroup and Baulderstone), and Acciona as tier one firms. Acciona is included as a tier one firm for all past projects, even though it only became a
tier one with the acquisition of Lendlease Engineering in 2020. All construction contracts considered by the procuring agency as a major contract or work
package are included, for projects over $1 billion since 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the largest contracts, even the tier one firms don’t usually go it alone. A joint venture involving two of the big three has won eight out of 11 contracts larger than $3 billion. When two of these firms form a joint venture, local firms have very little opportunity to compete: even a bid involving the other tier one firm is unlikely to be successful. </p>
<p>An extreme case is the <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/roads-projects/m4-m5-link-rozelle-interchange/">Rozelle Interchange</a> as part of the WestConnex motorway project in New South Wales. At first it attracted <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/westconnex-nsw-government-rejects-only-bid-for-m4-m5-interchange/9042082">only one bid</a> – from a joint venture between all three tier one firms. The state government rejected this offer and re-tendered the job, redesigning the contract in an attempt to entice more bidders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Victorian government is clearly aware of the risk of limited competition when tier one firms form joint ventures. It <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/lendlease-john-holland-cimic-sidelined-on-victorias-north-east-link-tollroad-20180921-h15pb4">banned joint ventures</a> of two or more tier one firms from bidding for the <a href="https://northeastlink.vic.gov.au/works/early-works-program">North East Link</a> freeway. The government preferred to encourage bids by international firms or mid-tier Australian firms.</p>
<p>And what’s really concerning is that these megacontracts are becoming the norm. Contracts above $3 billion in value were a rarity before 2014. In the seven years since, there have been ten, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing distribution of projects worth over $1 billion signed from 2006 onwards" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes only construction contracts for megaprojects (projects over $1 billion) where the first contract was signed during or after 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can governments do about this?</h2>
<p>Governments can take a couple of important steps to ensure there’s enough competition for contracts.</p>
<p>First, ensure international firms can freely enter the Australian market and bid on government contracts.</p>
<p>When two tier one firms form a joint venture to bid on very large contracts, the only avenue for competition is to involve international construction giants. So it’s crucial that Australian governments don’t give undue priority to domestic experience and cut the internationals out. </p>
<p>Governments should publish weighted criteria for bid selection. This ensures the international firms can be confident they’re not wasting resources bidding, only for governments to stick with the safe option of favouring local firms.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, avoid bundling work into bigger contracts than necessary.
Governments have an incentive to enact <a href="https://hvia.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/Austroads-AP-R624-20_Procurement_Decision_Tool.pdf">fewer and larger contracts</a> to make contract management simpler and minimise interface risks. These are the risks arising from interactions between multiple contractors, for example relating to site access. But bigger contracts mean fewer firms can bid for the work, particularly when different types of work are bundled together into a single package. </p>
<p>Governments should develop and use a systematic, consistent and transparent process to bundle up packages of work within a project. Examples would be splitting a highway upgrade into a number of smaller sections, or separating the design and construction tasks on a new rail line. </p>
<p>Megaprojects are making up an <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs/">ever-bigger portion</a> of transport infrastructure projects. Governments must focus on keeping the long-term cost as low as possible for the preferred quality standard. Otherwise, taxpayers will be at risk of paying over the odds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-live-to-regret-open-slather-construction-stimulus-139967">We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Three big firms win almost all the $1 billion-plus contracts. And they often team up in joint ventures, further reducing the competition that would keep the price tags of road and rail projects down.Owain Emslie, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1498202021-01-22T04:01:50Z2021-01-22T04:01:50ZLevel-crossing removals: a case study in why major projects must also be investments in health<p>The Victorian government has committed to <a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/More-level-crossing-removals-on-the-way">removing 75 road/rail level crossings</a> across Melbourne by 2025. That’s the fastest rate of removal in the city’s history. The scale of the investment — at least <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/file_uploads/20201014-Follow-up_level_crossing_removal_report_k2c4ZRcV.pdf">A$14.8 billion</a> — and the project’s ripple effects mean it could do more to transform the city’s public transport system than the <a href="https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/">Metro Tunnel</a> project. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rail-works-lift-property-prices-pointing-to-value-captures-potential-to-fund-city-infrastructure-123757">Rail works lift property prices, pointing to value capture's potential to fund city infrastructure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>All infrastructure projects change the determinants of health — the “causes of the causes” of good health — to some extent. Despite this, the public health impacts of the level-crossing removals have been neglected. Our research aims to quantify the health impacts of major infrastructure, using level-crossing removals on the Upfield line as a case study, and to encourage governments to consider these when designing and building.</p>
<p>The two most frequently stated <a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/More-level-crossing-removals-on-the-way">reasons</a> for the project are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>to reduce traffic congestion caused by having to give way to trains</p></li>
<li><p>to increase safety by eliminating the temptation for drivers, cyclists and pedestrians to cross tracks when boom gates are lowered. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>A third reason is to create jobs in the construction sector. </p>
<p>However, the impacts on public health are significant too. The level crossing removals have an opportunity to ensure that changes to the built environment make healthy behaviours the “easy option”. Such changes are generally more effective and equitable and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0528.2007.00348.x">can yield more sustained health benefits</a> than health promotion programs. </p>
<p>This means government investment in health through improvements to the built environment is both an ethical responsibility and a prudent social investment. All infrastructure projects, especially when publicly funded like the level-crossing removals, should contribute to demonstrable and equitable improvements in public health that are proportional to the scale of the investment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-transport-projects-arent-as-good-for-your-health-as-they-could-be-68326">Why transport projects aren't as good for your health as they could be</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A case study: the Upfield line</h2>
<p>Each level-crossing removal in Melbourne has unique challenges and opportunities. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/upfield-line-back-on-track">Bell-to-Moreland project</a> on the Upfield line, for example, involves removing four level crossings and building two new train stations. To remove the crossings, the rail has been elevated to create “sky rail” over a 3km stretch. </p>
<p>The land below can then be re-purposed for linear parks, recreation and active transport such as walking and cycling. </p>
<p>While the government <a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/publications/bell-to-moreland-trees-and-vegetation">emphasises such uses</a>, these appear to be incidental reasons for the project. “Level-crossing removal” rather than, say, “rail upgrade” or “linear park project”, suggests its main purpose is to ease traffic congestion. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="traffic flows under a rail overpass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377497/original/file-20210107-19-1reonjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic flows freely under the newly elevated rail line, which was one of the project’s main goals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/upfield-line-back-on-track#gallery-470795-6">Level Crossing Removal Project/Victorian government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The problem is that projects that aim to do this often have unintended rebound effects that actually <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261510000226">increase car use</a>. This, in turn, is linked to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S074937970400087X">increases in health problems</a>, including inactive lifestyles, excess weight and chronic disease.</p>
<p>The work on the Upfield line has also led to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/let-us-sleep-residents-say-24-7-upfield-line-works-are-unbearable-20200813-p55la6.html">construction noise</a>, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/anger-as-thousands-of-trees-axed-in-transport-building-blitz-20210101-p56r6j.html">loss of over 150 mature trees</a> and <a href="https://www.moreland.vic.gov.au/about-us/news-and-publications/news/council-disappointed-that-upfield-railway-line-precinct-heritage-submissions-cut-short-media-release/">heritage structures</a>, and loss of cyclists’ serendipitous “greenwave”, whereby north-south cycle travel on the adjacent path could be coordinated with the boom gates. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/UpfieldCCgroup/">Community dissatisfaction with the consultation processes</a> has also been significant. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sky-rail-saga-can-big-new-transport-projects-ever-run-smoothly-54383">The 'sky rail' saga: can big new transport projects ever run smoothly?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Each of these problems is known to make health worse. Will the benefits of the new open spaces — “<a href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/upfield-line-back-on-track">two MCGs worth</a>” — and better transport interchanges at the new Moreland and Coburg stations be realised and outweigh the negative impacts? How can we be sure major infrastructure, like the Upfield level-crossing removal, represents a prudent investment in public health?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Train travels through new station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377500/original/file-20210107-13-1styjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will the transport benefits of the newly built Moreland station outweigh the negative impacts of the project on community health?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/upfield-line-back-on-track#gallery-470795-1">Level Crossing Removal Project/Victorian government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Making the links between liveability and health</h2>
<p>Health impact assessment is an established set of protocols for measuring the effects of a project on public health. Extensive consultation and modelling are used to understand the opportunities and threats to public health arising from a proposed project. </p>
<p>At the same time, liveability is increasingly mentioned in urban policies and plans. The term is often used to promote Melbourne to the world. </p>
<p>However, liveability is not consistently defined. And contrary to what many would assume, the term is often used to emphasise city image and global economic competitiveness, rather than equitable access to healthy urban environments. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/melanie-lowe-288493">Melanie Lowe</a> and colleagues recognised the potential for liveability to be redefined and used to improve decision-making for health equity. Their <a href="https://communityindicators.net/resources/liveable-healthy-sustainable-what-are-the-key-indicators-for-melbourne-neighbourhoods/">review</a> of 82 peer-reviewed papers and government reports examined how these have used the concept. They found a liveable place, irrespective of its global location, is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] safe, attractive, socially cohesive and inclusive, and environmentally sustainable, with affordable and diverse housing linked to employment, education, public open space, local shops, health and community services, and leisure and cultural opportunities; via convenient public transport, walking and cycling infrastructure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cSLKiZ5t2bWM">Initial research for a comprehensive health impact assessment</a> has shown the Upfield level-crossing removal will affect most of these elements of liveability to some degree. Some impacts will be positive, some negative. Transport, public open space, natural environment, social cohesion and local democracy are likely to be most affected. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">How do we create liveable cities? First, we must work out the key ingredients</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="open space being landscaped under rail line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377498/original/file-20210107-17-glhckm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elevating the rail line has freed up open space underneath it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://levelcrossings.vic.gov.au/media/news/upfield-line-back-on-track#gallery-470795-9">Level Crossing Removal Project/Victorian government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These findings illustrate the pervasive yet subtle impacts on public health that major infrastructure projects can have. </p>
<p>Closer examination of the Upfield project will involve gathering data and modelling the impacts on health. The results will provide valuable evidence for formulating recommendations that enhance the public health benefits of this project and others like it, locally and internationally. </p>
<p>Importantly, demonstrating the links between major infrastructure, liveability and the determinants of health will help ensure decision-makers understand the public health potential and risks of such publicly funded projects.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Masters of Environment student Miranda Leckey also contributed to this article in the form of support and expert advice. Geoffrey Browne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from the ARC and state and local governments including the Level Crossing Removal Project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Lowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pervasive impacts of infrastructure projects on public health are often overlooked. New research is teasing out the many ways Melbourne’s level-crossing removals will affect people’s health.Geoffrey Browne, Research Fellow in International Urban Development, The University of MelbourneMelanie Lowe, Lecturer in Public Health, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1507522020-11-26T19:02:43Z2020-11-26T19:02:43ZDelivery rider deaths highlight need to make streets safer for everyone<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371401/original/file-20201125-23-ee8k8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=473%2C540%2C3014%2C2041&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mahathir Mohd Yasin/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Five food-delivery cyclists <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/uber-eats-vows-to-improve-safety-cyclist-killed-in-inner-sydney/12913840">have died</a> on Australian roads in the past three months, four in Sydney. Most commentary has focused on the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/food-delivery-riders-are-the-21st-century-s-chimney-sweeps-20201125-p56htn.html">harsh employment conditions</a> that force people to take risks they shouldn’t have to. These problems should of course be fixed, but cycling in general is too dangerous in our cities. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-the-rise-in-cycling-injuries-and-deaths-in-australia-116660">Three Charts on the rise in cycling injuries and deaths in Australia</a>
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<p>We need to look not just at labour laws but at the laws that shape our streets: things like road rules, planning requirements and engineering standards. Food delivery is a compelling example because it shows cycling is the most efficient way to get around the city. </p>
<p>Despite the efforts of supposedly business-minded people like shock jock Alan Jones and New South Wales’ former roads minister, Duncan Gay (who infamously ripped up infrastructure including a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/aug/25/sydney-australia-bike-lane-skeptic-cycling-duncan-gay-cycleways">cycleway along College Road</a> in central Sydney and a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-11/government-tears-up-rainbow-crossing/4621896?nw=0">rainbow crossing</a> on Oxford Street in Surry Hills), businesses have worked out bikes are the best way to move around the city. </p>
<p>Bikes are fastest for distances <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3141/2247-12?casa_token=6vELy3I6legAAAAA:vMzALMcRv95IJtv7HzstBi1F7BhRF_gbZoaFwCZNU9MQmigqh3MsgonjZKJQWLYMvgXLAlT2aZI">up to 5km</a>, even for beginners. For more experienced cyclists and during peak hour, bikes are faster for trips of 10km and often even more. </p>
<p>Cycling has wider benefits too. Swapping cars for bikes can reduce the tens of billions of dollars lost in traffic <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/smart-cities/plan/index.aspx">congestion</a>, the many gigatonnes of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">greenhouse gas emissions</a> and the health impacts of sedentary lifestyles. Even after accidents are taken into account, the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2015.1057877">health benefits</a> of cycling far outweigh the costs. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycle-walk-drive-or-train-weighing-up-the-healthiest-and-safest-ways-to-get-around-the-city-100238">Cycle, walk, drive or train? Weighing up the healthiest (and safest) ways to get around the city</a>
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<hr>
<p>Cycling can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-cyclists-expanding-bike-lane-network-can-lead-to-more-inclusive-cities-144343">help to improve equity</a> and social inclusion, since the burdens of car-centric development are suffered most by people who are already vulnerable. They include the largely migrant food-delivery workforce. </p>
<p>Food-delivery cyclists are not the only people dying in car crashes. Worldwide, traffic accidents cause more than <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries">1.35 million deaths</a> every year and are the leading killer of children. </p>
<h2>Blaming the victims</h2>
<p>Instead of focusing on the dangers created by cars and trucks, however, NSW Transport and Roads Minister Andrew Constance this week <a href="https://www.2gb.com/minister-insists-premiers-critics-clutching-at-straws-over-accusations-of-health-rules-breach/">blamed the victim</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If people are riding around, particularly at night, they have an obligation to make sure they are wearing high-visibility jackets. They’ve obviously got to have the requisite lighting in terms of the bike. They themselves should obviously be putting protective and high-vis clothes on.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Before this week, news stories about food-delivery cyclists were mostly negative. Just last month, police announced a <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/sydney-police-crack-down-on-delivery-drivers-who-ride-bikes-on-footpaths/news-story/5c05fc45d6bdca54c607b31e48fae537">crackdown on delivery cyclists</a> riding on footpaths. </p>
<p>Fears about cyclists injuring pedestrians receive a lot of attention, yet car driving <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-safety-switch-to-cycling-to-keep-others-safe-131964">kills three times more people</a> per kilometre than cycling. The danger created by trucks is more than ten times greater per kilometre (and vastly greater overall). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-bicycles-and-the-fatal-myth-of-equal-reciprocity-81034">Cars, bicycles and the fatal myth of equal reciprocity</a>
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<h2>Rules give priority to cars</h2>
<p>Of course, we have all seen cyclists doing risky things. But the issue is less about individual behaviour and more about the regulatory environment. In Sydney and many other places, a plethora of state and federal rules and regulations give priority to cars in our cities. </p>
<p>Planning rules entrench the dominance of cars by <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">mandating the provision of car parking</a> (despite its significant <a href="https://vtpi.org/park-hou.pdf">impact on housing affordability</a>). Engineering standards support high-speed travel. </p>
<p>Road rules and policing practices also enforce the dominance of cars on streets. An example is penalising pedestrians who step onto or cross the road within 20 metres of a zebra crossing. In contrast, sanctions for dangerous driving are weak and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/furious-cyclists-demand-police-focus-on-dangerous-drivers-not-helmets-20180426-p4zbte.html">poorly enforced</a>, and cycling is <a href="https://www.amygillett.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/AGF-Submission-to-NSW-Staysafe-Committee-Inquiry-into-Driver-Education-Training-and-Road-Safety-200217.pdf">left out of driver education</a>.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure is a problem too</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Lopsided budget allocations</a> and infrastructure make the situation worse. Even projects supposedly aimed at pedestrians and cyclists often benefit cars far more. An example is overpasses that increase walking and cycling distances, while giving cars a smooth, lights-free ride. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
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<p>The challenge is particularly acute in older areas, where streets were not designed for high car use. Calls for bike lanes, widened footpaths and other infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists are often refused on the grounds of lack of space. But why do cars get what little space there is? </p>
<p>The site of Sunday’s death is a clear example. The intersection where the cyclist was killed by an excavator-carrying truck is not a highway but a relatively narrow street with houses and a school. Should large trucks really be driving on streets like this? </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
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<h2>Law reform is overdue</h2>
<p>Internationally, there is a growing recognition that legal reform is needed to improve safety, and in turn to achieve both individual and national benefits. The <a href="https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/sustainable-safety/">Dutch approach</a> has long been celebrated, both for the high quality of cycling infrastructure and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-overwhelmingly-cause-bike-collisions-and-the-law-should-reflect-that-78922">high level of liability for car drivers</a>. The Swedish <a href="https://visionzeronetwork.org/">Vision Zero</a> has also been influential, with cities around the world introducing laws and policies to eliminate deaths in traffic. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-overwhelmingly-cause-bike-collisions-and-the-law-should-reflect-that-78922">Cars overwhelmingly cause bike collisions, and the law should reflect that</a>
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<p>Even in the US, where car culture is deeply entrenched, many cities are adopting <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ad9018bf93fd4ad7295ba8f/t/5f1f030c0cf14f38fa318020/1595867918978/CityHealth_Complete+Streets+Report.pdf">complete streets</a> legislation. These laws require streets to be planned, designed, operated and maintained to enable safe, convenient and comfortable access for users of all ages and abilities, regardless of their transport mode. </p>
<p>In Australia, councils like the <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/cycling">City of Sydney</a> are taking very positive actions to support cycling, but this alone is not enough. To save the lives of delivery riders – and everyone else – we need legal reforms at the state and federal levels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amelia Thorpe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Delivery riders are paying the ultimate price for the fact that our cities, their infrastructure and the rules governing them make cycling much more dangerous than it should be.Amelia Thorpe, Associate Professor in Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1421762020-07-22T19:53:12Z2020-07-22T19:53:12ZCycling and walking can help drive Australia’s recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348336/original/file-20200720-33-5f1r73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C4608%2C3428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brisbanequeenslandaustralia21-october-2019-aussie-riding-along-1555145036">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/966-0320-Summary-of-Principles-for-Good-Bike-Infrastructure-070520.pdf">bike paths</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064">walk-friendly streets</a> have to do with economic recovery from a pandemic-induced <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-coronavirus-recession-compare-with-the-worst-in-australias-history-136379">recession</a>? How could removing a car parking space <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/every-study-ever-conducted-on-the-impact-converting-street-parking-into-bike-lanes-has-on-businesses">benefit a local business</a>? Instead of considering such questions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">building roads for cars</a> is often seen as the obvious answer to “kick-start” the economy. </p>
<p>In this article, we explain how cycling and walking infrastructure is a better investment for recovery. Every kilometre walked or cycled has an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2008.11.001">economic</a> <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">benefit</a> by reducing traffic congestion and vehicle operating costs, improving health and the environment, and saving on infrastructure spending. It’s <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/physical-activity/publications/2008/economic-analyses-of-transport-infrastructure-and-policies-including-health-effects-related-to-cycling-and-walking-a-systematic-review">estimated</a> every dollar invested in cycling infrastructure may reap up to five dollars’ worth of benefits.</p>
<p>In Australia, however, walking and cycling only receive between <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/lagging-behind-the-pack-correction/">0.1%</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">2%</a> of transport budgets. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<p>A sustained lack of investment is one reason only <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">5% of trips to work</a> in Australia are by foot or bicycle. Yet the majority of city journeys are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">short enough to walk or cycle</a> for most people. </p>
<p>With <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">people now shunning public transport</a>, our roads are becoming even more congested. In a win-win scenario, walk-friendly and bike-friendly <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">design</a> can improve driving conditions, because fewer vehicles clog the roads. So instead of just building roads, is now not the time also to invest in <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">proper</a> walking and cycling infrastructure? </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1280721128831381504"}"></div></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
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<h2>Road building versus path building</h2>
<p>Road building is typically <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">depoliticised</a> and so is widely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">seen as a legitimate way</a> to stimulate economic growth. But simply building more roads may not reduce traffic or speed up journey times in the long term.</p>
<p>Road building leads to more traffic through <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">induced car use</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">car dependence</a>. If the default option for short journeys is driving, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-traffic-congestion-to-make-our-cities-more-like-the-places-we-want-them-to-be-111614">congestion ultimately gets worse</a> as the population grows.</p>
<p>Australians make <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyreleasedate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">three-quarters</a> of all trips to work by car. Most have no passengers. </p>
<p>Yet more than half of car journeys in cities are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">shorter than 5km</a>. These trips would be <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">well suited to walking and cycling</a>. <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">Safe and enticing</a> walkable streets and cycling paths are key to inducing this swap. </p>
<p>Australia has already committed billions of dollars to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/first-look-inside-sydney-s-3-billion-northconnex-tunnel-20200622-p554zh.html">road-building</a> projects as well as community infrastructure to “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>”. Ultimately, though, if we want less traffic, we need to invest more of this money in walkable streetscapes and safe separated bike paths. </p>
<p>This investment will increase walking and cycling, leading to the many benefits that flow from these behaviours. And enticing people out of their <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-people-out-of-cars-we-need-to-know-why-they-drive-27279">comfy cars</a> for short journeys will result in fewer trips by car. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-the-sums-bicycle-friendly-changes-are-good-business-58213">Do the sums: bicycle-friendly changes are good business</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What transport budgets tell us</h2>
<p>Comparing Australian budgets to other countries’ investment in active transport modes, we’re not doing well. Budgets would have to increase at least tenfold to achieve the United Nations recommendation that <a href="https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/31600/download?token=jJbDKsE3">20% of the transport budget</a> be invested in “non-motorised transport”. </p>
<p>And many countries have moved rapidly to commit major investments to cycling and walking since COVID-19. For example, <a href="https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/06/draft-programme-for-govt.pdf">Ireland</a> recently committed <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/06/15/former-bike-shop-owner-soon-to-be-irelands-prime-minister-secures-1-million-a-day-for-5-years-boost-for-walking-and-cycling/#bd04c8a5c012">billions of euros</a> to walking and cycling infrastructure, equivalent to 20% of its transport budget. </p>
<p>Considering our lack of investment, it’s easy to see why Australia is car-dependent. This is despite Australia having both great <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001951">weather</a> and <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/big-country-wider-car-lanes/">wide roads</a> to accommodate increased space for cycling and walking. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>An equity issue</h2>
<p><a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-ownership">Many</a> Australians, for reasons of disadvantage, disability or age, may not have access to a car. The typical cost of owning a car is <a href="https://www.savings.com.au/car-loans/ongoing-car-costs">A$300 per week</a>. Increasing spending on walking and cycling infrastructure will therefore improve equity by helping low-income earners and others who need inexpensive mobility. </p>
<p>Poor active transport infrastructure disproportionately <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/321154/On-the-Go-How-women-get-around-our-city.pdf">disadvantages women</a>. They cycle less than men and report a need for the safety of separated cycleways among other infrastructure. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/own-a-bike-you-never-ride-we-need-to-learn-how-to-fail-better-at-active-transport-126112">Own a bike you never ride? We need to learn how to fail better at active transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Poor infrastructure also <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/relationship-between-transport-and-disadvantage-austr">limits</a> children, older adults and people living with a disability from accessing the services they need. Many older Australians depend on public transport and on the quality of the walking environment around their homes and their most common destinations. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1258773473087893505"}"></div></p>
<p>On average, <a href="https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/car-accident-statistics.html">three people a day die</a> on Australian roads. Fewer car trips would help reduce the road toll. Similarly, increased investments in separated spaces for cycling and walking, as well as lower speeds on local streets, will reduce collisions between cars and bikes, as well as pedestrian-motorist conflicts. </p>
<h2>COVID-19 provides a unique opportunity</h2>
<p>COVID-19 has led to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/apr/22/bicycles-are-the-new-toilet-paper-bike-sales-boom-as-coronavirus-lockdown-residents-crave-exercise">boom</a> in bicycle sales, <a href="https://t.co/uzUch4mVEH?amp=1">reduced</a> speed limits, wider footpaths, <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/new-pop-up-cycleways-to-help-us-get-back-to-work-and-school">pop-up</a> bicycle <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp.html">lanes</a>, increased walking and <a href="https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13405">new cyclists</a>. Some of this has come about following <a href="https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6736341/why-city-needs-to-be-put-on-a-road-diet/?cs=4464">calls</a> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-dBhS2mhOX6y8aH6MWYfg1J483Bz8o8j/view">for</a> “<a href="https://www.spaceforhealth.org/">Space For Health</a>”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063">We can't let coronavirus kill our cities. Here's how we can save urban life</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1278875251414151168"}"></div></p>
<p>We should “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>” by building back better through investment to sustain this increase in walking and cycling. Our call to action is therefore:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A call to action for COVID-19 Walking and Cycling Infrastructure Investment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Mclaughlin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While Australia’s cities have invested in walking and cycling during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s less than some <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/02/10/prime-minister-boris-johnson-pledges-5-billion-in-new-cash-for-buses-and-bicycle-infrastructure/#8b1ff706df6f">other</a> countries have invested. For example, Paris has accelerated the installation of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">650km</a> of cycleways by removing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">72% of its on-street parking</a>. Scotland is proposing to “<a href="https://www.livingstreets.org.uk/media/5413/walk-back-better-national-walking-strategy-delivery-forum-statement.pdf">Walk Back Better</a>” from COVID-19.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1255525752281468936"}"></div></p>
<p>It is good to see investment in Australian cities increasing. But now is the time to help kick-start our COVID-19 recovery by investing more in walking and cycling, and to reap the many benefits for the Australian community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Mclaughlin is affiliated with the International Society for Physical Activity and Health. He receives funding from the Priority Research Centre for Health Behaviour at the University of Newcastle and the Hunter Cancer Research Alliance. He is the Secretary of Newcastle Cycleways Movement. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trevor Shilton is Director of Active Living at the Heart Foundation of Australia. He is affiliated with the International Society for Physical Activity and Health, the International Union for Health Promotion and Education and the Australasian Society for Physical Activity</span></em></p>Investing more in cycling and walking would boost both physical and economic health, with a typical return of $5 for every $1 spent on cycling infrastructure.Matthew Mclaughlin, PhD Candidate, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of NewcastleTrevor Shilton, Adjunct Professor, School of Public Health, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1403392020-06-11T19:51:49Z2020-06-11T19:51:49ZPutting stimulus spending to the test: 4 ways a smart government can create jobs and cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341106/original/file-20200611-114066-1rvci3g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=278%2C0%2C1735%2C1364&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Greenfleet Australia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 recession is coming, and federal and state governments are expected to spend more money to stimulate economic growth. Done well, this can make Australia’s economy more productive, improve quality of life and help the low-carbon transition. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/16879/fiscal-stimulus-low-carbon-compatible-covid-19-recovery">paper released today</a>, we’ve developed criteria to help get this investment right. The idea is to stimulate the economy in a way that creates lasting economic value, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and brings broader social benefits.</p>
<p>An Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) outlook report <a href="http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/">released this week</a> predicts an economic slump this year in <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/0d1d1e2e-en/1/3/3/2/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/0d1d1e2e-en&_csp_=bfaa0426ac4b641531f10226ccc9a886&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=">Australia</a> and globally.</p>
<p>Governments will be called on to invest. In this article, we investigate how stimulus spending on infrastructure can simultaneously achieve environmental, economic and social goals. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341110/original/file-20200611-114085-1idtcvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stimulus spending can help the economy, the environment and the community.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Best practice</h2>
<p>Europe has already embraced a “green stimulus”. For example, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/germany-s-recovery-fund-gets-green-hue-with-its-focus-on-climate">Germany</a> plans to spend almost one-third of its €130 billion stimulus package on renewable power, public transport, building renovations and developing the hydrogen and electric car industries.</p>
<p>In response to the pandemic, <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/media/Files/DPE/Other/priority-projects-criteria-2020-04.pdf?la=en">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/building-victorias-recovery-taskforce">Victoria</a> produced criteria for priority stimulus projects which include environmental considerations. </p>
<p>Whether the federal government will follow suit is unclear.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/homebuilder-misses-a-chance-to-make-our-homes-perform-better-for-us-and-the-planet-140067">HomeBuilder misses a chance to make our homes perform better for us and the planet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Most federal stimulus spending has been on short-term <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-improve-jobkeeper-hint-it-would-help-not-to-pay-businesses-late-140435">JobKeeper</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-coronavirus-supplement-stops-jobseeker-needs-to-increase-by-185-a-week-138417">JobSeeker</a> payments, plus the <a href="https://theconversation.com/homebuilder-misses-a-chance-to-make-our-homes-perform-better-for-us-and-the-planet-140067">HomeBuilder</a> scheme that will largely benefit the construction industry and those who can afford home improvements.</p>
<p>So how should governments decide what to prioritise in a COVID-19 stimulus package?</p>
<h2>Our criteria</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/16879/fiscal-stimulus-low-carbon-compatible-covid-19-recovery">developed</a> a set of criteria to guide stimulus spending. We did this by comparing ten proposals and studies, including current proposals by international organisations and think tanks, and research papers on fiscal stimulus spending after the 2008 global financial crisis. Synthesising this work, we identified nine criteria and assessment factors, shown below. </p>
<p><iframe id="o82P9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/o82P9/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Before the pandemic hit, <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/2020_infrastructure_priority_list_low_resolution_-_updated.pdf">Infrastructure Australia</a> and other organisations had already identified projects and programs that were strong candidates for further funding. </p>
<p>We applied our criteria to a range of program/project categories to compare how well they perform in terms of achieving economic, social and environmental goals. We did not assess particular programs and projects. </p>
<p>The four most promising categories for public investment are shown in this table, and further analysed below.</p>
<p><iframe id="NdgRJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NdgRJ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>1. Renewable energy and transmission</h2>
<p>The electricity system of the future will be based on wind and solar power – now the cheapest way of producing energy from new installations. Australia’s renewables investment boom may be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/spending-on-large-scale-renewable-energy-in-australia-plunges-20200116-p53s4g.html">tailing off</a>, and governments could step in.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Market Operator, in its <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2018-integrated-system-plan-isp">2018 Integrated System Plan</a>, assessed 34 candidate sites for Renewable Energy Zones – which are places with great wind and solar potential, suitable land and access to the grid. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/really-australia-its-not-that-hard-10-reasons-why-renewable-energy-is-the-future-130459">Really Australia, it's not that hard: 10 reasons why renewable energy is the future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The NSW government has committed to <a href="https://energy.nsw.gov.au/renewables/renewable-energy-zones">three such zones</a>. These could be fast-tracked, and other states could do the same. </p>
<p>Investment in power transmission lines is needed to better connect these zones to the grid. It’s clear where they should go. Governments could shortcut the normally lengthy approval, planning and commercial processes to get these projects started while the economy is weak.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341108/original/file-20200611-114102-1gvf26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now is a good time for governments to invest in large-scale renewable energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Energy efficiency in buildings</h2>
<p>There’s a strong economic, social and environmental case for investment in retrofitting public buildings to improve their energy efficiency. Schools, hospitals and social housing are good candidates.</p>
<p>Building improvement programs are quick to start up, opportunities exist everywhere and they provide local jobs and business support. And better energy efficiency means lower energy bills, as well as reduced carbon emissions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>One existing program is showing the way. Under the Queensland government’s <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2020/5/21/panels-power-jobs-through-pandemic">Advancing Clean Energy Schools</a> program, which involves solar installation and energy-saving measures, 80 state schools have been brought forward to the project’s first phase as part of COVID-19 stimulus.</p>
<p>A focus on public buildings will bring long-lasting benefits to the community, including low-income households. This would bring far greater public benefit than programs such as HomeBuilder.</p>
<h2>3. Environmental improvements</h2>
<p>Stimulus initiatives also provide an opportunity to boost our response to last summer’s bushfires. While the federal government has <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/bushfire-recovery">announced</a> A$150 million of funding for recovery projects and conservation, more could be done. </p>
<p>The ACT has <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6759411/bushfire-recovery-jobs-to-begin-as-part-of-covid-19-stimulus/">shown how</a>. As part of COVID-19 stimulus, 26 people who’d recently lost their jobs were employed to help nature reserves recover after the fires. Such programs could be greatly scaled up. </p>
<p>In New Zealand, the government is <a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-fix-australias-environment-with-any-pandemic-recovery-aid-the-kiwis-are-doing-it-139305">spending NZ$1.1 billion</a> on creating 11,000 “nature jobs” across a range of regional environmental projects. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341112/original/file-20200611-114075-144ugod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern’s government has created</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Hicks/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Transport projects</h2>
<p>Several transport projects on the Infrastructure Australia priority list are well developed, and some could be fast-tracked.</p>
<p>Smaller, local projects such as building or refurbishing footpaths and cycle paths, and improving existing transport infrastructure, can be easily achieved. The NSW government is already <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-cycleways-streets-to-shut-footpaths-widened-under-nsw-s-covid-19-plan-20200507-p54qwc.html">encouraging councils</a> to undertake such projects.</p>
<h2>Sound analysis and transparency is needed</h2>
<p>Our analysis is illustrative only. A full analysis needs to consider the specifics of each project or program. It must also consider the goals and needs in particular regions or sectors - including speed of implementation, ensuring employment opportunities are spread equally, and social and environmental priorities.</p>
<p>This is the job of governments and agencies. It should be done diligently and transparently. Australian governments should lay out which objectives their stimulus investments are pursuing, the expected benefits, and why one investment option is chosen over another. </p>
<p>This should improve public confidence, and taxpayers’ acceptance of stimulus measures. This is good practice for governments to follow at any time. It’s even more important when they’re spending billions at the drop of a hat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140339/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden is a Research Fellow working on the ANU Energy Change Institute’s Grand Challenge: Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific. His work on temperature-related mortality receives funding from the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo leads research projects supported respectively by the Australian government and the 2050 Pathways Platform, and occasionally consults to organisations and businesses. No conflicts exist in relation to this article or the underlying paper.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zeba Anjum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Governments are throwing billions of taxpayer dollars on stimulus measures after COVID-19. But they must do it diligently, and transparently.Thomas Longden, Research Fellow, Crawford School, Australian National UniversityFrank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, Australian National UniversityZeba Anjum, PhD student, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311932020-02-19T19:01:59Z2020-02-19T19:01:59ZPeople love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn’t it top of the agenda?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316041/original/file-20200218-10976-1gi67en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C219%2C4248%2C3107&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-october-20-2016-richmond-503074843">Nils Versemann/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We were heavily involved in the consultation program for Melbourne’s long-term land-use plan, <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a>. The idea that resonated most with many participants was shaping the city as a series of 20-minute neighbourhoods. </p>
<p>People generally loved the thought that most (not all) of the things needed for a good life could be within a 20-minute public transport trip, bike ride or walk from home. These are things such as shopping, business services, education, community facilities, recreational and sporting resources, and some jobs (but probably not brain surgery).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-need-to-give-up-on-crowded-cities-we-can-make-density-so-much-better-131304">No need to give up on crowded cities – we can make density so much better</a>
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<p>Creating a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods is a key policy direction of <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne 2017-2050</a>. As the plan <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/highlights/healthy,-vibrant-and-inclusive-neighbourhoods">states</a>:</p>
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<p>The 20-minute neighbourhood is all about ‘living locally’ – giving people the ability to meet most of their everyday needs within a 20-minute walk, cycle or local public transport trip of their home.</p>
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<p>This planning idea has gained Melbourne recognition in international planning circles. For example, Singapore’s recent <a href="https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltagov/en/who_we_are/our_work/land_transport_master_plan_2040.html">Land Transport Master Plan 2040</a> is based on shaping the city and its transport systems to achieve 20-minute towns within a 45-minute city. Officials who prepared the report have acknowledged to one of us Melbourne’s leadership with the concept. </p>
<p>The concept is not about travel by car. It is about active transport (walking, cycling) and the use of public transport. The goal is that this combination of modes would offer a reasonably sized catchment area in which people, jobs and services, including recreational opportunities and nature, are accessible.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/god-save-us-greenspace-oriented-development-could-make-higher-density-attractive-126204">GOD save us: greenspace-oriented development could make higher density attractive</a>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/plan-melbourne/20-minute-neighbourhoods">State Government of Victoria</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Inner parts of Australia’s capital cities and parts of their middle suburbs already meet a 20-minute neighbourhood test. Very few of the outer suburbs would do so. However, new developments such as the <a href="https://www.greaterspringfield.com.au/">City of Springfield</a> in outer Brisbane are encouraging.</p>
<h2>Key ingredients of 20-minute neighbourhoods</h2>
<p>If outer suburbs, in particular, are to become 20-minute neighbourhoods, then two key requirements must be met. </p>
<p>First, local development densities need to be increased. This means ensuring minimum density levels of around 25-30 dwellings per hectare, which will better support local activity and services provision. </p>
<p>Consultations with council planners suggest new developments in Melbourne’s outer north, for example, are typically running at about 18 dwellings. The density of developments was about 12 just a decade ago.</p>
<p>Accompanying more dense residential development is the need to integrate a mix of uses within these neighbourhoods. This would bring more jobs and services close to where people live. They would also have a range of housing to support a mix of household types, income levels and age groups. </p>
<p>So we need not just density but also a mix of land uses within a neighbourhood. This is often known as density plus diversity.</p>
<p>Second, local public transport service levels need to be greatly improved. To achieve 20-minute neighbourhoods requires local weekday public transport services running every 20 minutes or better, from around 5am until 11pm (start of last run). That’s a minimum of 55 services per stop per day per direction. </p>
<p>The map below shows very few parts of outer Melbourne have services anywhere near this level. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Public transport service levels across Melbourne (dark green is best, dark red is worst).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: PTV GTFS feed</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
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<h2>What would it cost to achieve?</h2>
<p>Gross funding increases of about 50% for local public transport services (essentially buses) would be needed to meet this basic service standard for 20-minute neighbourhoods across Melbourne. Based on scaling up the <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">cost of current bus services</a> in Melbourne, we estimate the cost would be about A$250 million a year, or A$4 billion over the long term, in present values.</p>
<p>This is a modest amount compared to current capital commitments for rail. These total <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">A$30-40 billion</a>, depending on what share of the <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">cost of level-crossing removals</a> is attributed to rail. Development of the government’s proposed <a href="https://suburbanrailloop.vic.gov.au/en">Suburban Rail Loop</a> around the city will add an <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/victorian-government-says-melbournes-suburban-rail-loop-will-be-an-operationally-independent-railway">estimated A$50 billion</a>. Annual payments for metropolitan train services add <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">A$1.1 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Trains now carry only <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">twice as many passengers</a> as buses do. So the suggestion that an extra A$4 billion or so be spent on bus services, in capitalised terms, is very modest compared to the commitments being made to rail. The amount includes an allowance for infrastructure works to improve operating speeds – such as bus lanes and B-lights, which give buses priority through intersections.</p>
<p>The tram network could make an equally strong argument for extra funding, relative to trains, given the relative passenger loads carried and <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">small new capital program</a> in place for trams (hundreds of millions rather than tens of billions).</p>
<p>Melbourne has recently had a massive jump in spending on capital projects, particularly transport projects. This investment is needed to tackle the backlog from years of neglect and cope with one of the <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">fastest population growth rates</a> of any similar-sized city in the developed world. </p>
<p>The 2019-20 state budget, for example, suggests <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">capital spending will average A$13.9 billion a year</a> over the four years to 2022-23. It was less than A$5 billion a year from 2005-06 to 2014-15. </p>
<h2>It’s about more than walkability</h2>
<p>In stark contrast, implementation of 20-minute neighbourhoods has been limited to <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/current-projects/20-minute-neighbourhoods/pilot-program">three pilot studies</a>, in <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/428910/Strathmore-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">Strathmore</a>, <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/515242/Croydon-South-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">South Croydon</a> and <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/515240/Sunshine-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">Sunshine West</a>. These studies appear to be focused heavily on developing walkable neighbourhoods, rather than on improving access by walking, cycling and public transport, which was the original intent of the idea.</p>
<p>Walkable neighbourhoods are an important part of 20-minute neighbourhoods, but only one part. Increased neighbourhood densities and more mixed-use development across local active transport and public transport catchments, together with better walking, cycling and local public transport opportunities, need far greater attention if 20-minute neighbourhoods are to be created in outer and middle suburbs. </p>
<p>We expect a much stronger focus at the neighbourhood level will deliver very high social, environmental and economic returns from small outlays. But, for this to be achieved, much greater urgency is needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stanley was a member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Plan Melbourne and Plan Melbourne 2017-2050.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roz Hansen was Chair of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Plan Melbourne and Plan Melbourne 2017-2050.</span></em></p>Only the inner suburbs of Melbourne and other capital cities meet the 20-minute neighbourhood test. But we could transform the other suburbs for much less than the cost of current transport projects.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyRoz Hansen, Adjunct Professor, Deakin University; Professorial Fellow, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312102020-02-17T18:54:41Z2020-02-17T18:54:41ZWest Gate Tunnel saga shows risk of ‘lock-in’ on mega-projects pitched by business<p>Victoria’s government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">finds itself in a big hole</a> with its <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel project</a>. As diggers lie idle in a dispute over what to do with contaminated soil, it’s facing <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-says-west-gate-tunnel-deadline-is-under-review-20200211-p53zmj.html">long delays</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/premier-doesn-t-rule-out-spending-more-money-on-west-gate-tunnel-20200204-p53xmm.html">billions in extra costs</a>. But the government appears locked into a <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/121515-vic-treasurer-and-his-top-bureaucrat-not-happy-with-latest-audit-report/">contentious project</a> that was put to it as a market-led proposal, an arrangement that <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/unsolicited-proposals-could-be-worse-for-taxpayers-accc-warns-20180830-h14pw2">bedevils transport projects across Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Australian governments look increasingly to <a href="http://www.projectmanagement.ie/blog/megaprojects-10-facts-you-should-know">mega-projects</a> to solve urban and regional transport problems. These projects are city-shaping. They can transform how entire urban regions function. </p>
<p>The public has a clear stake in these projects, but unsolicited market-led proposals are subverting planning processes that are meant to protect the public interest.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">Market-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public</a>
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<p>Market-led proposals are <a href="https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2014/february/victoria-releases-new-unsolicited-proposal-guideline-for-projects-and-services">unsolicited bids</a> to government by private firms to provide public services or infrastructure. Policies governing market-led proposals were <a href="https://graduates.corrs.com.au/assets/thinking/downloads/whats-next-market-led-proposals-in-aus.pdf">introduced in 2014 and 2015</a> by state governments across Australia to promote innovation in service delivery and value for money for taxpayers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://thelawreviews.co.uk/edition/the-public-private-partnership-law-review-edition-5/1189694/australia">increasing use</a> of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals">market-led proposals</a> for transport mega-projects raises important questions. How are policies governing these managed, to what end, and for whose benefit?</p>
<p>In Melbourne, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">tensions</a> between toll road operator Transurban and the Victorian government over the West Gate Tunnel highlight a fundamental shortcoming of market-led proposals. Bluntly, these are not suited to the planning of transport mega-projects because governments can become “locked in” with <a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">questionable benefits</a>. Lock-in has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b36017">defined</a> as “the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action”. </p>
<h2>The case of the West Gate Tunnel</h2>
<p>Transurban’s builders of the West Gate Tunnel, John Holland and CPB Contractors, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/more-than-100-west-gate-tunnel-workers-set-to-be-laid-off-20200113-p53r1a.html">laid off 137 workers</a> last month in a dispute about liability for contaminated soil. This is bad press for the state government, which touted <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/faqs/west-gate-tunnel/what-job-opportunities-are-there">job creation and training</a> as key project benefits.</p>
<p>The dispute could add to delays and costs on top of two earlier changes related to the project. The first was a ten-year extension to Transurban’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CityLink">CityLink tolling concession</a> that will cost road users <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/cost-to-motorists-of-westgate-tunnel-deal-revealed/10915998">billions of dollars</a>. The second was an increase in construction costs from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/melbournes-west-gate-tunnel-project-cost-blows-out/9248994">A$5.5 billion to A$6.7 billion</a> to extend tunnels to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/western-distributor-longer-tunnel-chosen-for-second-river-crossing-project-20160709-gq24uf.html">save a public park</a>.</p>
<p>Explanations for the dispute include the Environmental Protection Authority <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">tightening soil disposal requirements</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-in-limbo-as-government-companies-argue-over-contaminated-soil-20200122-p53tnm.html">difficulties determining site conditions</a> during the environmental assessment process, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/west-gate-tunnel-builders-seek-to-terminate-contract-over-pfas/11909402">insufficient foresight and planning for these risks</a>.</p>
<p>Another explanation for what happened is “lock-in”. Evidence of lock-in on the West Gate Tunnel points to deeper systemic problems with market-led proposals for transport mega-projects in general.</p>
<h2>How does lock-in happen?</h2>
<p>Lock-in can occur when powerful corporations partner with governments in circumstances that enable them to exploit vulnerabilities in our public institutions. Some of these vulnerabilities include increasing reliance by governments on private finance, and the short period between elections compared to the time it takes to deliver bold public works programs.</p>
<p>Lock-in happens when the real decision to build a project is made well in advance of processes that are publicly declared to inform that decision. Once governments are locked in to a project, it can make alternatives appear increasingly unviable, if not unthinkable.</p>
<p>There is strong evidence to suggest this happened with the West Gate Tunnel. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use.html">Significant concerns</a> were raised early on that the project might not provide its claimed public benefits. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">Impending traffic chaos? Beware the problematic West Gate Tunnel forecasts</a>
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<h2>What makes market-led proposals different?</h2>
<p>Market-led proposals differ from government-led projects because planning is effectively outsourced to the private sector. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals also differ from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/public-private-partnerships.asp">public-private partnerships</a>, like Melbourne’s CityLink tollway. In such cases, government plans these projects, but private firms deliver and operate them. (At least CityLink was part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721">long-standing, if largely discredited, strategic plan</a>.)</p>
<p>Revelations that Transurban acted in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">secretive and strategic ways</a> to secure support for its West Gate Tunnel raise serious ethical questions. What does it mean to be a “good partner” to government? How should powerful private corporations obtain a “social licence” to operate? </p>
<p>These questions draw attention to problems inherent in Victoria’s opaque market-led proposal process. The government’s caution about the AirRail consortium’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">unsolicited bid for Melbourne’s airport rail link</a> points toward some of these dangers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transurbans-west-gate-tollway-is-a-road-into-uncharted-territory-89164">Transurban's West Gate tollway is a road into uncharted territory</a>
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<h2>What’s wrong with this approach?</h2>
<p>Government policies for assessing market-led proposals give <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-the-making-of-a-monster-20160512-gotjm9.html">powerful private firms like Transurban</a> influence over strategic planning. This contrasts with the relatively limited influence granted to affected communities and stakeholder groups advocating for sustainable transport solutions.</p>
<p>Acceptance of Transurban’s bid allowed a multi-billion-dollar toll road to override plans that had been <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">taken to an election</a>. These plans were simpler and far less expensive. The plans had been developed with the local community to better manage freight traffic by <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">upgrading access to existing freeways</a>.</p>
<p>The West Gate Tunnel process involved expedited planning that bypassed broad-based community consultation. John Holland and CPB Contractors were selected in April 2017 “<a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/only-the-best-for-the-west-with-6000-new-jobs/">to get to work</a>” on the project. That was five months before <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/library/environment-effects-statement">public hearings</a> concluded in September. Over 500 submissions were received.</p>
<p>Add to this the suppression of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/expert-cut-from-toll-road-project-after-warning-tim-pallas-it-did-not-stack-up-20170803-gxoohi.html">independent and critical oversight</a> and a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/voters-need-to-see-light-at-start-of-west-gate-tunnel-20180219-h0wawa.html">heavily redacted</a> business case, and a very concerning picture of Victoria’s market-led process emerges.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
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<h2>Wanted: an integrated transport plan</h2>
<p>Because governments are ultimately responsible for their partnerships, the Victorian government should demonstrate stronger accountability and leadership. Victorians are still waiting for an integrated transport plan, as is required to be prepared under the <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/about/legislation">2010 Transport Integration Act</a>. Instead of outsourcing transport problems to private firms, the government should develop a statewide, genuinely consultative, evidence-based plan.</p>
<p>An integrated transport plan would allow Victorians to see how future mega-projects, regardless of who proposes them, might serve everyone’s interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Whitten has been affiliated with advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock conducts independent academic research funded by government and industry. He is affiliated with a number of advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p>States across Australia are increasingly using market-led proposals to build infrastructure. The emerging problems reflect the inherent risks of projects that bypass proper public planning processes.James Whitten, Ph.D Candidate, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneIan Woodcock, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1290742020-02-03T18:56:56Z2020-02-03T18:56:56ZThe old road rules no longer apply: how e-scooters challenge outdated assumptions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312773/original/file-20200130-41485-1mwu48j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=596%2C151%2C4707%2C2830&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">E-scooters are increasingly used for urban transport, but the road rules treat them as recreational devices and their users as pedestrians.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/adelaide-australia-may-2019-view-escooter-1564001407">haireena/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many people want <a href="https://bit.ly/2NXYmyT">changes to the law</a> to deal with the increased use of <a href="https://bit.ly/30Vc3DU">e-scooters</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>In general, the debate appears to be concerned mainly with safety and the different rates at which things move. Walking pedestrians are slower, motor vehicles are faster. Road infrastructure is not often designed for mixed uses. </p>
<p>I would argue both that the current debate is based on outdated assumptions about transport, transport technology and road users, and that it is now time to rethink the assumptions underpinning the <a href="https://bit.ly/2TYdboW">Australian Road Rules</a>. At present, for example, the Rules do not account for the emergence and adoption of new forms of transport like e-scooters, nor for other transport technologies that might morph from “recreational” devices such as hoverboards or segues. </p>
<p>A more creative approach would be to consider the larger opportunities that could transform how we move and connect. We could make transport more equitable, more <a href="https://bit.ly/2O1t4H8">sustainable</a> and safer for all road users by rewriting the rules and retrofitting roads. </p>
<h2>Road rules reflect assumptions about transport</h2>
<p>Living in safe communities and benefiting from effective transport infrastructure means observing the <a href="https://bit.ly/2TYdboW">Australian Road Rules</a>. These rules are a national model that gives consistency to state and territory laws. </p>
<p>Under the rules, <em>roads</em> are areas on which to drive or ride motor vehicles (s.12.1). The definition of motor vehicles excludes motorised scooters (p.329). </p>
<p>Roads are complex spaces. Roads include shoulders (kerbed areas, unsealed sections, and sealed sections outside edge lines) and exclude bicycle, foot or shared paths (s.12.3). Different from shoulders, road-related areas comprise things that divide roads: footpaths and nature strips; public access areas used by animals or cyclists; and public areas on which to drive, ride, or park (s.13.1.d). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312755/original/file-20200130-41485-aaldlw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Users of wheeled recreational devices or wheeled toys are classed as pedestrians, even though they could use them for transport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The rules define <em>road users</em> as drivers, riders, passengers and pedestrians (s.14). Pedestrians include users of motorised and non-motorised wheelchairs and those pushing either type of wheelchair (s.18.a–c), and speed limits apply. Importantly, users of wheeled recreational devices or wheeled toys are also <em>pedestrians</em> (s.18.c–d). </p>
<p>Wheeled recreational devices are “built to transport a person” even though they are “ordinarily used for recreation or play” (Australian Road Rules, p.338). They include roller blades and skates, skateboards, unicycles and <em>all</em> forms of scooter. In contrast, wheeled toys exclude motorised scooters, but include objects such as tricycles, and apply to children under 12.</p>
<p>The rules are to keep people and property safe — a goal also shaped but often overshadowed by <a href="https://bit.ly/2GkQEKO">economic imperatives</a>. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), 1.34 million road deaths worldwide in <a href="https://bit.ly/2RQIOy0">2016</a> amounted to the eighth leading cause of death. There were also 50 million injuries. Indeed, the <a href="https://bit.ly/2RQIOy0">WHO</a> reports that road traffic injuries lead the cause of death for those aged five to 29, and the “burden is disproportionately borne by pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists”.</p>
<p>Australia’s road safety record <em>is</em> comparatively sound, worth noting for a population that, in 2018, numbered over 24 million and had over 18 million registered vehicles, including almost 17 million cars and four-wheeled light vehicles. Even so, in 2016 the WHO reported 1,351 road traffic fatalities in Australia: 45% were drivers, 16% passengers and 14% pedestrians (including those on wheeled devices). These statistics mirror those in Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312751/original/file-20200130-41485-1onpslb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Twelve-month death tolls for road user categories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMTU1MjFmMWEtNWI2Yy00Mjc2LTg1NzQtZmUwOGE0MTE0MTVhIiwidCI6ImFhMjFiNjQwLWJhYzItNDU2ZC04NTA1LWYyY2MwN2Y1MTc4NCJ9">Source: Australian Road Deaths Database</a></span>
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<p>No matter how sound the road rules, and no matter how carefully we observe them, people die on roads. Among the reasons for that are the different speeds at which we move and the fact that our transport infrastructures cater poorly to mixed uses.</p>
<h2>The case for retrofitting roads</h2>
<p>Understandably, the Australian Road Rules are supposed to ensure transport infrastructures are used in ways for which they were designed or for which they can reasonably be adapted. That is why the rules put such emphasis on zones, speed limits, lines and signs — none of which, granted, can <em>determine</em> our safe or unsafe practices. </p>
<p>But what is reasonable? The rules reveal several possibly unreasonable assumptions about pedestrians who use wheeled devices. </p>
<p>For example, rule definitions emphasise recreation and play and lag behind real change among (mostly) young people opting to use such devices <em>as transport</em>. Legally they can, but road and road-related infrastructure simply does not accommodate that shift. <a href="https://bit.ly/2RsmoEo">It could</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311948/original/file-20200126-81369-w3ncbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">E-scooters represent a real shift in urban transport paradigms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/black-scooter-2380611/">Brett Sayles/Pexels</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>So, as well as ensuring all road users continue to be safe as new technologies such as e-scooters come online, surely politicians and policymakers at all levels of government must be encouraged to see the larger opportunities.</p>
<p>We know that <a href="https://bit.ly/2uDlStT">walking produces among the most democratic spaces of city life</a>. There is every possibility to extend our thinking about <em>that</em> pedestrian act and consider how to embed wheeled devices into the urban fabric. Elsewhere, I have referred to such opportunities as ones that foster the <a href="https://bit.ly/38BIkCD">geographies of generosity</a>. </p>
<p>We are, I think, missing the chance to have creative conversations leading to innovative systems of radically retrofitted transport networks that are safe, have amenity, produce environmental gains and continue to democratise social life. Road networks take up great tracts of urban land, but it <em>is</em> possible to retrofit them for just, more equitable and more <a href="https://bit.ly/2O1t4H8">sustainable</a> outcomes. </p>
<p>We could generate powerfully creative ideas about retrofitting what we have and make much stronger commitments to do that. Those ideas could translate to economic activity and might save lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elaine Stratford has received funding on small wheeled devices from the Tasmanian Government (1999) the Australian Research Council's small grants scheme (1999), and the Glenorchy City Council and the Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources (2003). Over 20 years, she has published widely on skateboarding, as well as parkour, and mobilities.</span></em></p>Are debates about e-scooters too narrow? Perhaps it is time to focus more on revitalising urban spaces and retrofitting road infrastructure.Elaine Stratford, Professor of Geography, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1276032019-12-02T18:13:24Z2019-12-02T18:13:24ZMarket-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public<p>The privatisation of services in Australian cities has weakened public control of key infrastructure. This is likely to accelerate as governments look to market-led proposals to provide infrastructure. </p>
<p>For nearly three decades, the <a href="http://ncp.ncc.gov.au/">rationale for privatisation has been competition</a>. Competition was expected to keep costs down, foster innovation and ensure the public interest was preserved. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stumbling-into-the-future-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-great-infrastructure-sell-off-73850">Stumbling into the future: living with the legacy of the great infrastructure sell-off</a>
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<p>Now, the increasing resort to market-led infrastructure proposals means even the minimal safeguard of “competition” is disappearing. These unsolicited proposals by private firms have not been subject to competitive assessment. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals present a risk for how our cities function. If infrastructure is built in the interests of private actors, the outcomes will favour them, not citizens. Privatising key public assets that are <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/natural-monopoly/">natural monopolies</a>, such as railways, opens the door to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rentseeking.asp">rent-seeking</a>.</p>
<p>While allowing governments to conveniently avoid the capital costs appearing on public balance sheets, market-led proposals seem engineered to deliver monopoly rents from users to private interests. </p>
<p>To stop this exploitation, governments need to reassert the public interest in procuring and operating key infrastructure. This includes ensuring new infrastructure is integrated with existing networks and meets the needs of all citizens. Governments must explicitly guard against financial or user-charging arrangements that disguise exploitative rents to private operators.</p>
<p>A lack of transparent government oversight will result in even more public <a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">protest and resistance</a> in the planning of cities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
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<h2>Who plans the future city?</h2>
<p>Concerns about market-led proposals are important because the planning of Australian cities and regions is no longer the sole domain of government. Often market-led proposals emerge where governments have vacated policy and planning by simply not having a plan. </p>
<p>At the national scale, a consortium of property interests has proposed the <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/the-clara-plan.html">CLARA</a> (Consolidated Land and Rail Australia) project to build high-speed rail between Melbourne and Sydney. The scheme would give the consortium the monopoly right to develop land, building new “CLARA” cities along the route.</p>
<p>In the capital cities, private consortia are filling voids in government planning by proposing, planning and building “city-shaping” infrastructure. We see this in Melbourne, where market-led proposals to build an airport rail link and the <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/west-gate-tunnel-authority">West Gate Tunnel</a> have appeared in the absence of a metropolitan transport plan.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-needs-a-big-picture-transport-plan-that-isnt-about-winners-v-losers-65567">Victoria needs a big-picture transport plan that isn't about winners v losers</a>
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<p>Although the Victorian government has been considering preferred options for an airport rail line, a private consortium has produced an unsolicited proposal along an alternative route.</p>
<p>Comprising Melbourne Airport, Southern Cross Station, Metro Trains Australia and IFM Investors, <a href="https://www.airrailmelbourne.com.au/#about">AirRail Melbourne’s</a> A$5 billion bid is being assessed under the Victoria government’s <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">market-led proposal guidelines</a>. </p>
<p>If approved, the AirRail model would hand <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/airport-rail-tunnel-could-come-with-extra-tolls-for-taxpayers-20191113-p53a8f.html">control of a key link in Melbourne’s metropolitan rail network</a> to a private company, allowing monopoly pricing and servicing that puts profit before public interest. The consortium is proposing a fare of up to A$20, thus placing the link outside the zone-based public transport ticketing system. Currently, travel is viewed as a public service available to all passengers at a uniform fare.</p>
<p>In both Sydney and Brisbane, privatised airport rail lines operate on separate fare structures that reflect their private financing.</p>
<h2>Lack of transparency is a problem</h2>
<p>According to the Victorian <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/Market-led-Proposals-Guideline-November-2017%20%282%29.pdf">guidelines</a>, unsolicited proposals are meant to follow “a transparent and fair process while maintaining the highest level of probity and public accountability”. </p>
<p>But there are plenty of examples of problems wrought by market-led proposals. </p>
<p>For instance, just last week the state auditor-general was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/6-7-billion-west-gate-tunnel-not-value-for-money-says-state-auditor-20191127-p53ehx.html">highly critical</a> of the A$6.7 billion West Gate Tunnel project, which was approved in 2017. This project has been criticised before for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/costing-of-west-gate-tunnel-is-far-from-transparent-20190314-p5148c.html">lacking transparency about the financial benefits – more than A$37 billion in additional toll revenue – reaped by its proponent</a>, Transurban. </p>
<p>This lack of transparency raises questions about the impacts market-led proposals have on the integrity and effectiveness of infrastructure planning. How can the public interest be defended if the mechanisms in place to ensure this are compromised?</p>
<p>An earlier auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/20150819-HVHR-process.pdf">report</a> concluded:</p>
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<p>In terms of transparency, government has yet to finalise how it communicates the costs, funding, rationale and expected benefits of committed unsolicited proposals. Current approaches to reporting on infrastructure projects do not adequately convey this information to the community.</p>
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<p>The auditor-general’s <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/market-led-proposals">report on market-led proposals</a> last week also raised doubts about the assessment process for the West Gate Tunnel. The project was nominally “bundled” with the Monash Freeway widening, with the latter gifting its higher benefits to the tunnel project. </p>
<p>Concerns have also been raised at the national level. </p>
<p>In 2016, the chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Rod Simms, <a href="https://www.afr.com/opinion/rod-sims-says-government-greed-risks-privatisation-mandate-20161010-gryzvs">warned</a> against a model of privatisation that gives monopolies and oligopolies control over pricing the maintenance of what are really public assets. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn-73853">Making sense of the global infrastructure turn</a>
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<h2>Public interest planning must be restored</h2>
<p>We haven’t yet lost all public control of our cities. But if we are not paying attention, the path we are on is a worrying one. </p>
<p>A sure way to avoid further erosion of the public good in infrastructure planning is to abandon the approach of market-led projects. These shadowy, inequitable processes are surely undermining public confidence in the governance of cities, and in government in general. </p>
<p>We urge governments not to further privatise more public, especially monopoly, assets, as proposed in the airport rail bid. Governments must ensure infrastructure is built in the public interest, not shaped by the needs of private capital.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Gleeson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University currently receives funding from AHURI, the European Commission and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from State agencies for contract research and from the ARC. </span></em></p>Unsolicited market proposals are not transparently assessed. Infrastructure should be built to serve the public interest, not shaped by its private backers, but the checks to ensure this are broken.Crystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneBrendan Gleeson, Director, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1257182019-11-10T18:55:38Z2019-11-10T18:55:38ZSmart tech systems cut congestion for a fraction of what new roads cost<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298795/original/file-20191027-113980-130djx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart transport solutions make better use of existing infrastructure and reduce the need to build expensive new roads. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stock.adobe.com/ee/images/traffic-lights-on-bridge/544070">AdobeStock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects">new transport projects</a> governments are constantly announcing are <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australian-infrastructure-expensive/">expensive</a>. In the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian</a> elections, the returned state governments’ transport infrastructure promises added up to A$165 billion. What’s mostly missing from the promised transport solutions is smart technology that provides higher benefits at a fraction of the cost – when retrofitting existing roads in particular. The benefit-to-cost ratio can be more than a dozen times greater than for a new road. </p>
<p>Clearly, infrastructure spending helps to drive the economy. These projects also deliver benefits to the community, including increased road safety, shorter travel times and fewer delays. </p>
<p>The economic merit of these projects is usually captured using a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR). For example, the BCR of the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html">A$15.8 billion</a> <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/north-east-link">North East Link</a> road project in Melbourne is estimated to be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/north-east-link-at-risk-of-becoming-financial-disaster-economist-20190726-p52b6a.html">1.25</a> – for every A$1 invested, A$1.25 is returned in benefits to the economy and community. For the Melbourne Metro rail tunnel, a best-case <a href="https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/about-the-project/faq">BCR of 3.3</a> has been reported.</p>
<p>But are we getting good value for money? Could cheaper alternatives deliver more benefits? </p>
<h2>Technology offers smarter, cheaper solutions</h2>
<p>Technology offers transport solutions that provide higher benefits at a fraction of the cost of building new infrastructure. Collectively known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOMamTXK5T8">intelligent transport systems</a>, these are widely recognised today as better answers for smart transport outcomes. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XOMamTXK5T8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Intelligent transport systems can have positive impacts on the safety, efficiency and environmental performance of transport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/infrastructure-productivity">comparing</a> different “congestion-busting” options, “building more roads” provides, on average, a BCR of 3.0. This is dwarfed by the much higher BCR values of tech solutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Low_Carbon_Mobility_for_Future_Cities.html?id=g8NIDgAAQBAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y">Source: Low Carbon Mobility for Future Cities: Principles and Applications (Dia, H. ed, 2017), adapted from Infrastructure Productivity: how to save $1 trillion a year (McKinsey, 2013)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/innovation/everydaycounts/edc-1/asct.cfm">Adaptive traffic signal control</a> allows <a href="https://youtu.be/lZtOgqbNMVE">traffic signals</a> to change based on actual traffic demand. This yields, on average, a BCR of 40. </p>
<p>Traffic signals along a route can be coordinated to create “<a href="https://youtu.be/PQ-HBC6QGHo?t=12">green waves</a>” for platoons of vehicles to travel without stopping. These solutions are effective for congested cities that experience rapid traffic growth and changing traffic patterns. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OSL1dS8rqdk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simulation of adaptive traffic signals</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.itsinternational.com/sections/nafta/features/integrated-corridor-management-to-enhance-travel-efficiency/">Corridor management systems</a> use technology to control networks of motorways and urban roads. The average BCR is 24.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways">managed motorways</a>, <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/coordinated-ramp-signals">ramp signals</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aUyMJwZ8_s">variable speed limit signs</a> and <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/traveller-information-for-motorists">traveller information systems</a> are <a href="https://youtu.be/iFL2CZfJZD8">proven tools</a> to respond in real time to changing traffic conditions. In <a href="https://www.transmax.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Case-Study_Smart-Motorways-.pdf">one case</a>, a managed motorway reduced travel times by 42% and accidents by 30%. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pahIsJEFEMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Active motorway management improves the performance of existing roads.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/lane-and-speed-management-for-incidents">Traffic incident management</a>, which has a BCR of 21, includes technologies that aid quick detection and removal of crashes. They also detect other incidents such as broken-down vehicles or spilled loads that reduce road capacity. The systems rely on smart <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X97000168">software</a> that analyses sensor data in real time. </p>
<p><a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Pages/NTIMCPublicationsandProducts.aspx">Benefits</a> include a 40% reduction in time to detect incidents. The technology also <a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Documents/Benefits11-07-06.pdf">reduces incident duration by 23%</a> and <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/481658">road crashes by 35%</a>.</p>
<h2>Combining tech solutions magnifies benefits</h2>
<p>When solutions are combined, benefits are amplified. The <a href="https://sunguide.info/annual-reports/district-six-its-annual-report/">Florida Department of Transportation</a> implements a transport technology program on its networks. The solutions include incident management, ramp signalling, traveller information and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdVDEU5UVb4&feature=youtu.be&t=50">express lanes</a>. Reduced incident duration and traffic delays are among the key benefits. </p>
<p>In 2018, the benefits of this program totalled almost <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$3.1 billion</a> (A$4.5 billion). The costs were <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$70.3 million</a> (A$102 million). That’s a BCR of 43.7. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benefit-cost ratios of transport technology solutions implemented over a decade by Florida Department of Transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/McKinsey/Industries/Capital%20Projects%20and%20Infrastructure/Our%20Insights/Infrastructure%20productivity/MGI%20Infrastructure_Full%20report_Jan%202013.ashx">cost</a> of implementing technology solutions on the <a href="https://www.roads.org.uk/motorway/m42">M42 motorway</a> was US$150 million (A$218 million) and took two years to complete. Widening the road to produce the same outcome would have taken 10 years and cost US$800 million (A$1.16 billion).</p>
<h2>A shift in priorities is needed</h2>
<p>Considerable investment in transport infrastructure is still required. It should be guided by strong business cases and aligned with community values and expectations.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
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<p>However, technology is getting to the point where it’s making a serious difference in tackling the mega challenges facing our cities. Its role must be prioritised. </p>
<p>The benefits are compelling. Intelligent technology systems improve the use of existing assets and increase their operational life. They enhance traveller experience and reduce reliance on building new roads. And they deliver superior value for money.</p>
<p>But widespread deployment of these technologies is still limited. To spur change and unlock value, we must move beyond a project-by-project approach. </p>
<h2>Learn from the best</h2>
<p>Governments can be guided by <a href="https://itif.org/publications/2010/01/09/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent">leading nations</a> in this field such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Their citizens experience the benefits every day. Smart transport solutions improve their quality of life through easier travel, less congestion and more reliable services. </p>
<p>The recurring policy themes in these countries include a national vision of smart infrastructure and commitment to funding. They prioritise investment in research and trials, standards development and partnerships with industry. These are key factors in the success of their tech-driven transport solutions. </p>
<p>These are the policies and investments Australia should prioritise. They will modernise our transport systems in innovative ways that lift our economy and living standards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, and Transport for New South Wales.</span></em></p>Faced with the eye-watering costs of building infrastructure, it makes sense to turn to much more cost-effective smart technology to get traffic flowing.Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248952019-10-21T18:59:49Z2019-10-21T18:59:49ZTo bolster our fragile road and rail system we need to add a ‘micro-mobility’ network<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297601/original/file-20191017-98648-4zwr4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2761%2C1769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In cities like Copenhagen that have good infrastructure for cycling it's an established commuting option alongside road and rail.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclists_at_red_2.jpg">Heb/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all know the feeling. You’re on your way to an important appointment when disaster strikes. A glitch in the transport matrix leaves you <a href="https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/sydney-train-delays-after-signal-failure/11592818?pfmredir=sm&sf221276741=1">waiting for a train that never arrives</a>, or in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-coming-to-a-standstill-as-infrastructure-struggles-20190812-p52g9n.html">bumper-to-bumper traffic</a> with little chance of making it to your destination on time. If you are like me, you may wonder: why are our transport systems so fragile, and how could we make them more resilient? </p>
<p>The answer may lie in the infrastructure we provide for the <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/micromobility-revolution/">emerging trend of micro-mobility</a> – devices that are small, light and usually electric-powered. Greater investment in a micro-mobility network could improve the reliability of our current transport system, which offers two main networks in road and rail for journeys that are not walkable. This micro-mobility network can be developed by greatly improving the fragmented bicycle networks in our cities. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-tiny-vehicles-would-deny-us-smarter-ways-to-get-around-our-cities-113111">Banning 'tiny vehicles' would deny us smarter ways to get around our cities</a>
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<p>To understand how this could improve our overall transport system, we must first look at how transport projects are funded and how diversification and redundancy can make up for shortcomings in this process. </p>
<h2>Selecting the best transport projects</h2>
<p>When deciding which projects to build, transport agencies rank projects using a benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This number is the predicted benefits of a project divided by the predicted costs. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, benefit-cost ratios are often <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">misused to suit political motives</a>. They are inherently flawed and uncertain for at least three reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li>modelling often <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">miscalculates future traffic volumes</a></li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/modelling-for-major-road-projects-is-at-odds-with-driver-behaviour-63603">inaccurate assumptions are used</a> to estimate the dollar value of costs and benefits</li>
<li><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">many uncertain costs and benefits are simply ignored</a>.<br></li>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-restore-the-publics-faith-in-transport-planning-73684">How do we restore the public's faith in transport planning?</a>
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<h2>Reducing investment risk through diversification</h2>
<p>In the financial sector, uncertainty is simply a risk to be managed. This can be done with diversification, which is achieved by bundling different assets into a portfolio. For example, bundling shares from different industries reduces the risk that these “diverse” investments will all suffer losses at the same time.</p>
<p>Similarly, investing in a variety of transport modes is a form of diversification. This makes our transport systems more resilient to long-term changes in the economy, the climate, technology, energy and so on. For example, a transport system that provides alternatives to car travel is resilient to increases in the price of fuel or the cost of emissions.</p>
<p>Transport diversification reduces investment risk, so we are likely to get a more stable return on our transport investment. But diversification alone does not prevent a traffic accident blocking a motorway, or a power outage shutting down a railway line. </p>
<p>To tackle those problems, we should consider approaches the technology sector has been using to manage component failures for decades. It can provide <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2019/01/amazon-ecr-announces-99-9--service-level-agreement/">services with 99.9% availability</a>. That would be quite an achievement for the transport network! </p>
<h2>Managing component failure using redundancy</h2>
<p>The technology sector uses redundancy to ensure service is maintained even when one part of the system fails. IT managers keep local and cloud backups so data can be retrieved even if the office burns to the ground. Aircraft designers install multiple flight control systems so the failure of a single system does not cause a crash.</p>
<p>In the transport sector, redundancy is achieved when several modes can be used to make the same journey. While the technology sector can offer redundancy through duplicate systems, providing a duplicate train line “just in case” the first one fails is simply too costly. Instead, we rely on the train network to move people when a road crash halts traffic and we rely on the road network to move people when a train line is closed.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Australian transport networks do not offer enough capacity or alternatives when one mode is crippled. The predictable result is a fragile transport system with unplanned but not entirely unexpected faults causing frequent delays.</p>
<h2>Tapping into micro-mobility solutions</h2>
<p>A new wave of mobility solutions is on the horizon. Many are described as “micro-mobility”: electric scooters, electric bicycles and automated delivery pods fit this description, as do conventional bicycles. </p>
<p>These devices are perfect for short trips in crowded cities. They are used for individual mobility and micro-freight (such as small packages and takeaway food).</p>
<p>These devices travel faster than pedestrians, so can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-scooters-on-collision-course-with-pedestrians-and-lawmakers-99654">unwanted on footpaths</a>. However, they are slower than motor vehicles, so can be unwanted on roadways. And as people using micro-mobility devices are <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-the-rise-in-cycling-injuries-and-deaths-in-australia-116660">not protected from collisions</a>, they are often reluctant to mix with motor vehicle traffic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial</a>
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<p>The logical place for micro-mobility devices is on a network that is designed for unprotected humans to travel at around 10-30km/h. In other words, the bicycle network.</p>
<h2>The benefits of a bicycle (or “micro-mobility”) network</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-cycling-funding-is-economic-non-sense-7547">evidence for investment in bicycle infrastructure is strong</a>. It has the benefits of tackling big challenges including obesity, emissions and traffic congestion. </p>
<p>This article highlights three additional benefits that are not included in traditional benefit-cost ratio analysis:</p>
<ol>
<li>providing a bicycle network increases transport diversification and therefore minimises investment risk</li>
<li>a bicycle network provides redundancy to keep the transport system functioning when other networks fail </li>
<li>bicycle networks support the emerging micro-mobility market.</li>
</ol>
<p>However, investment in bicycle networks in Australia has been miniscule for decades. For example, in 2015-16, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/files/infrastructure-statistics-yearbook-2018-booklet.pdf">A$25.1 billion was invested in roads</a> and <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2018/yearbook_2018.aspx">A$8.7 billion in rail</a>. But only <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-strategy-implementation-report-2016">A$121.8 million was spent on the bicycle network</a> – just 0.36% of transport infrastructure spending, or A$5.27 per capita.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
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<p>The bicycle networks in Australian cities are therefore fragmented and incomplete, as seen below in the map of Sydney.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296141/original/file-20191009-3910-qqlfms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney bicycle network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/cycleway-data">Author using Transport for NSW data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without a functioning bicycle network, the overall transport system is susceptible to investment risk and network failure. We will also be left behind as micro-mobility options proliferate and our transport system becomes less and less fit for purpose.</p>
<p>So let’s build a comprehensive bicycle network fit for scooters, delivery pods, bicycles and more, and let’s do it quick smart.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Arnold has done work for Transport for NSW and other government agencies through his transport consultancy, Transportology. </span></em></p>A breakdown in the road or rail systems often causes commuter chaos in Australia. Some overseas cities are more resilient because they have other options – and our bicycle network could give us that.Tony Arnold, PhD Candidate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1141782019-04-23T20:11:50Z2019-04-23T20:11:50ZGet set for take-off in electric aircraft, the next transport disruption<p>Move aside electric cars, another disruption set to occur in the next decade is being ignored in current <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-18/coalition-says-it-is-not-anti-electric-cars/11029222">Australian transport infrastructure debates</a>: electric aviation. Electric aircraft technology is rapidly developing <a href="https://www.magnix.aero/about-us/">locally</a> and overseas, with the aim of potentially <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/electric-planes-promise-big-benefits-air-passengers-planet-ncna862001">reducing emissions and operating costs by over 75%</a>. Other countries are already <a href="http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180814-norways-plan-for-a-fleet-of-electric-planes">planning for 100% electric short-haul plane fleets</a> within a couple of decades.</p>
<p>Australia relies heavily on air transport. The country has the <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf">most domestic airline seats per person</a> in the world. We have also witnessed flight <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/issues/airports-issues.pdf">passenger numbers double</a> over the past 20 years. </p>
<p>Infrastructure projects are typically planned 20 or more years ahead. This makes it more important than ever that we start to adopt a disruptive lens in planning. It’s time to start accounting for electric aviation if we are to capitalise on its potential economic and environmental benefits.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-arent-there-electric-airplanes-yet-103955">Why aren't there electric airplanes yet?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can these aircraft do?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://mashable.com/feature/electric-airplanes-future-flight/#ZR4G.vl9cZq3">two main types</a> of electric aircraft: <a href="https://www.harbourair.com/harbour-air-and-magnix-partner-to-build-worlds-first-all-electric-airline/">short-haul planes</a> and vertical take-off and landing (<a href="https://lilium.com/">VTOL</a>) vehicles, including <a href="https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/News/passenger-carrying-drones-now-reality">drones</a>.</p>
<p>The key issue affecting the uptake of electric aircraft is the need to ensure enough <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612351/top-battery-scientists-have-a-plan-to-electrify-flight-and-slash-airline-emissions/">battery energy density</a> to support commercial flights. While some <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-arent-there-electric-airplanes-yet-103955">major impediments</a> are still to be overcome, we are likely to see short-haul electric flights locally before 2030. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-04/first-electric-plane-passenger-flights-in-australia-to-rottnest/9304424">Small, two-to-four-seat, electric planes</a> are already <a href="https://particle.scitech.org.au/tech/aussie-first-electric-plane-takes-to-wa-skies/">flying in Australia today</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_UhOYtq1_Ag?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An electric plane service has been launched in Perth.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A scan of global electric aircraft development suggests rapid advancements are likely over the coming decade. By 2022, <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/siemens-to-supply-motors-for-eviations-all-electric-airplanes">nine-seat planes</a> could be doing short-haul <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/electric-passenger-planes-four-years-away-says-tech-firm/10401950">(500-1,000km)</a> flights. <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/easyjet-outlines-progress-on-electric-jet-453088/">Before 2030</a>, small-to-medium <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/electric-flying-is-becoming-a-reality-says-easyjet-ceo-electric-plane/">150-seat planes</a> could be flying up to 500 kilometres. Short-range (<a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2019/01/28/boeing-autonomous-passenger-drone-flying-car/">100</a>-<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2019/01/14/bell-nexus-vtol-air-taxi-makes-a-splash-at-2019-consumer-electronics-show/#2c8801fb2e31">250 km</a>) VTOL aircraft could also become viable in the 2020s.</p>
<p>If these breakthroughs occur, we could see <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170405005365/en/Zunum-Aero-Developing-Hybrid-Electric-Aircraft-Fast-Affordable">small, commercial, electric aircraft</a> operating on some of Australia’s busiest air routes, including Sydney-Melbourne or Brisbane, as well as opening up new, cost-effective travel routes to and from regional Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267813/original/file-20190405-180014-57189i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Possible short-haul electric aircraft ranges of 500km and 1,000km around Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why go electric?</h2>
<p>In addition to new export opportunities, as shown by <a href="https://thedriven.io/2019/04/22/australias-magnix-chosen-to-power-eviation-electric-aircraft/%E2%80%8B">MagniX</a>, electric aviation could greatly reduce the financial and environmental costs of air transport in Australia.</p>
<p>Two major <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/231427/sub050-airports.pdf">components of current airline costs</a>
are fuel (27%) and maintenance (11%). Electric aircraft could deliver <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/eviation-secures-funding-for-all-electric-alice-454830/">significant price reductions</a> through reduced energy and maintenance costs. </p>
<p>Short-haul electric aircraft are particularly compelling given the inherent energy efficiency, simplicity and longevity of the battery-powered motor and drivetrain. No alternative fuel sources can deliver the same level of savings. </p>
<p>With conventional planes, a high-passenger, high-frequency model comes with a limiting <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920912000703">environmental cost</a> of burning fuel. Smaller electric aircraft can avoid the fuel costs and emissions resulting from high-frequency service models. This can lead to increased competition between airlines and between airports, further lowering costs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-trust-the-environmental-hype-about-electric-vehicles-the-economic-benefits-might-convince-you-115225">Don't trust the environmental hype about electric vehicles? The economic benefits might convince you</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>What are the implications of this disruption?</h2>
<p>Air transport is generally organised in combinations of <a href="https://aeronauticsonline.com/the-airline-economics-of-the-bicycle-wheel-point-to-point-vs-hub-and-spoke-flying/">hub-and-spoke or point-to-point models</a>. Smaller, more energy-efficient planes <a href="https://blueswandaily.com/the-route-revolution-how-next-generation-aircraft-are-transforming-global-route-maps/">encourage point-to-point flights</a>, which can also be the spokes on long-haul hub models. This means electric aircraft could lead to higher-frequency services, enabling more competitive point-to-point flights, and <a href="https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/56018/89299_1.pdf;sequence=1">increase the dispersion of air services</a> to smaller airports.</p>
<p>While benefiting smaller airports, electric aircraft could also improve the efficiency of some larger constrained airports. </p>
<p>For example, Australia’s largest airport, Sydney Airport, is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf">efficient in both operations and costs</a>. However, due to noise and pollution, physical and regulatory constraints – mainly aircraft movement caps and a curfew – can lead to congestion. With a significant number of sub-1,000km flights originating from Sydney, low-noise, zero-emission, electric aircraft could overcome some of these constraints, increasing airport efficiency and lowering costs.</p>
<p>The increased availability of short-haul, affordable air travel could actively compete with other transport services, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X11000837">high-speed rail</a> (HSR). Alternatively, if the planning of HSR projects takes account of electric aviation, these services could improve connectivity at regional rail hubs. This could strengthen the business cases for HSR projects by reducing the number of stops and travel times, and increasing overall network coverage.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/268531/original/file-20190410-2927-1grq8wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Synchronised air and rail services could improve connections for travellers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-speed-train-airplane-cargo-ship-168236006">Chuyuss/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about air freight?</h2>
<p>Electric aircraft could also help air freight. International air freight volumes have <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/airports-2019/draft/airports-draft-overview.pdf">increased by 80% in the last 20 years</a>. Electric aircraft provide an opportunity to efficiently transport high-value products to key regional transport hubs, as well as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-and-ups-are-betting-big-on-drone-delivery-2018-3/?r=AU&IR=T">directly to consumers via VTOL vehicles or drones</a>. </p>
<p>If properly planned, electric aviation could complement existing freight services, including <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2017/02/23/ups-drone-launching-delivery-truck-design-technology-news/">road</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/26/volans-i-drones-can-haul-cargo-for-500-miles-and-land-on-a-moving-ship.html">sea</a> and air services. This would reduce the overall cost of transporting high-value goods.</p>
<h2>Plan now for the coming disruption</h2>
<p>Electric aircraft could significantly disrupt short-haul air transport within the next decade. How quickly will this technology affect conventional infrastructure? It is difficult to say given the many unknown factors. The uncertainties include step-change technologies, such as <a href="https://www.maketecheasier.com/solid-state-batteries/">solid-state batteries</a>, that could radically
accelerate the uptake and capabilities of electric aircraft. </p>
<p>What we do know today is that Australia is already struggling with disruptive technological changes in energy, telecommunications and even other transport segments. These challenges highlight the need to start taking account of disruptive technology when planning infrastructure. Where we see <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-storage-620-billion-investment-opportunity-2040/">billions of dollars being invested</a> in technological transformation, we need to assume disruption is coming. </p>
<p>With electric aircraft we have some time to prepare, so let’s not fall behind the eight ball again – as has <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/huge-problem-with-car-prices-too-few-affordable-electric-vehicles-in-australia/news-story/64a87eb32a4a8d8c2fdc9664420058eb">happened with electric cars</a> – and start to plan ahead.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/end-of-the-road-for-traditional-vehicles-here-are-the-facts-85419">End of the road for traditional vehicles? Here are the facts</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland, Director of Transmobility Consulting, and is a member of the Australian Labor Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kane is the Director of Innovation and Economic Strategies at Economic Development Queensland, a business unit of the Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning.</span></em></p>Some countries have already committed to using electric aircraft on domestic routes. These aircraft could slash costs and emissions on some of Australia’s busiest flight routes.Jake Whitehead, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandMichael Kane, Research Associate, Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute,, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135712019-04-09T02:32:23Z2019-04-09T02:32:23ZBusiness-as-usual record on transport leaves next government plenty of room to improve<p><em>This article is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/coalition-record-2019-69102">series</a> examining the Coalition government’s record on key issues while in power and what Labor is promising if it wins the 2019 federal election.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Election season means transport season: just as the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian</a> elections gave us massive new transport promises, so too is the federal government relying on the enduring popularity of new roads and rail. But look beyond the rhetoric and the past three years have been largely business as usual. That leaves plenty of room for the next government, of whatever colour, to take a fresh look at how transport promises are made – and plenty of room to improve.</p>
<p>Last week’s federal budget committed to transport expenditure of <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/download/bp1_final.pdf">A$7.4 billion in 2019-20</a>, and A$33 billion over the four-year forward estimates period. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-transport-spending-is-about-par-for-the-course-but-the-pattern-is-unusual-114597">Budget transport spending is about par for the course, but the pattern is unusual</a>
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<p>The government claims it’s spending a <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/community.htm#transport">record A$100 billion</a> over a decade. Yet the <a href="https://www.billshorten.com.au/2018_budget_reply_canberra_thursday_10_may_2018">opposition claims</a>: “Across the four years of this budget, Commonwealth investment in infrastructure actually <em>falls</em>, from A$8 billion to A$4.5 billion.” And <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/coalition-needs-to-fill-infrastructure-shortfall-20190329-p518u0">Infrastructure Partnerships Australia says</a> recent budgets are down on the long-term average by about A$11 billion over the forward estimates. </p>
<h2>How much is the government actually spending?</h2>
<p>With such polarised views, who are we to believe?</p>
<p>In reality, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-transport-spending-is-about-par-for-the-course-but-the-pattern-is-unusual-114597">expenditure for 2019-20</a> is absolutely normal. At 0.37% of GDP, it’s close to the midpoint of spending on transport under treasurers Scott Morrison, Joe Hockey and Wayne Swan. In each of the past ten budgets, annual transport spending in the year following the budget has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-transport-spending-is-about-par-for-the-course-but-the-pattern-is-unusual-114597">0.26-0.53% of GDP</a>.</p>
<p>What is different is the extent of promises that lie beyond the forward estimates period. The move to a <a href="https://buildingourfuture.gov.au/assets/documents/10_Year_Infrastructure_Pipeline.pdf">ten-year pipeline of promises</a> might be fine in theory, but an interested elector can rely only on what’s in the budget papers. And from that they would conclude there’s nothing unusual to see here.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/500m-for-station-car-parks-other-transport-solutions-could-do-much-more-for-the-money-114908">$500m for station car parks? Other transport solutions could do much more for the money</a>
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<h2>A new enthusiasm for equity investments</h2>
<p>All these figures concern grants to state governments, which are responsible for transport networks. But, in addition to these grants, the federal government has developed an enthusiasm for funding projects “off-budget”. In the past two years, the Commonwealth made <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/ministerial-statements/2018-19-regional-ministerial-budget-statement.pdf">equity investments</a> of A$9.3 billion in <a href="https://inlandrail.artc.com.au/">Inland Rail</a> and A$5.3 billion in <a href="https://westernsydneyairport.gov.au/">Western Sydney Airport</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/charter-of-budget-honesty-policy-costing-guidelines__trashed/appendix-a-costing-of-measures-and-updating-estimates__trashed">Charter of Budget Honesty</a> states that an investment can be treated as an off-budget equity injection only if the government has a “reasonable expectation” of recovering the investment. In other words, the entity must be expected to make a positive return over time.</p>
<p>But this gives governments a lot of latitude. A positive rate of return is not the same as a commercial one. And there seems little likelihood of commercial returns in either case. </p>
<p>For Inland Rail, it’s no secret that the Australian Rail Track Corporation will <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/barnaby-joyces-inland-rail-revenues-wont-cover-capital-cost-artc-ceo-says-20180219-h0wbvw">never be asked to repay the A$9.3 billion</a>, even when project revenues start to flow in 2025. Let’s hope the finance minister is right to insist there’s no prospect the project will need even more taxpayer support, despite the risks identified in the <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2018-19/bp1/bp1.pdf">budget papers themselves</a> and by the Commonwealth <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/ANAO_Report_2017-2018_9.pdf">Auditor-General</a>. With no expectation of repayment, there is no practical difference between this “equity investment” and a grant. </p>
<p>For Western Sydney Airport, the government decided to build the airport itself after Sydney Airport Corporation declined its right to build it. The airport operator said the offer as it stood was “<a href="https://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/airports/badgerys-creek-deeply-uneconomic-sydney-airport-ceo-kerrie-mather-20170216-gueiq6">deeply uneconomic</a>”. It cited operational, traffic, financial and political risks. </p>
<p>So it’s hard to share the confidence of the then treasurer (and now prime minister), Scott Morrison, when <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/govt-set-to-build-airport-rail-link-with-good-debt-20170427-gvtcmy">he said</a> the new airport will “generate an income stream that’s going to pay for itself”.</p>
<p>In both cases, if a future government ends up writing down the fair value of these assets, this will appear on the balance sheet as a change to “other economic flows”. It won’t be separately identified. Nor will the write-down show up in the underlying cash balance figure that the media spotlight highlights on budget night. </p>
<p>The unavoidable conclusion is that pushing transport spending off-budget seriously diminishes not only the discipline that comes from competing for funds through the budget process, but also transparency in how public money is being spent.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
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<h2>A foray into road pricing is stillborn</h2>
<p>In November 2016 the government took an unusually bold step: <a href="https://transportinfrastructurecouncil.gov.au/publications/files/Australian_Government_Response_to_Australian_Infrastructure_Plan_November_2016.pdf">it committed</a> to holding an inquiry into road-user charging. The then minister for urban infrastructure, Paul Fletcher, was in good company. His commitment to commission a review led by an eminent Australian was in response to a <a href="https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/Australian_Infrastructure_Plan.pdf">2016 recommendation</a> from Infrastructure Australia, which invoked a similar <a href="http://competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/files/2015/03/Competition-policy-review-report_online.pdf">recommendation in the 2015 Harper Review</a> of competition policy, which in turn referred to a <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/137280/infrastructure-volume1.pdf">2014 Productivity Commission recommendation</a>. And the backdrop to all these reports was a <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/downloads/final_report_part_1/00_afts_final_report_consolidated.pdf">recommendation of the 2010 Henry Tax Review</a>.</p>
<p>But time passed and no eminent person was appointed. More time passed, ministers moved portfolio, and no eminent person was appointed. Finally, in October 2018, current minister Michael McCormack <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/deputy-pm-michael-mccormack-shelves-inquiry-into-road-pricing-20181004-h1688d">declined to commit</a> to the inquiry.</p>
<p>An inquiry is no more than an inquiry, but a non-inquiry is a commitment to the status quo. Roads funding and roads investment are serious topics, and many <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/news-media/speeches/infrastructure-pricing-reform/infrastructure-pricing-reform.pdf">commentators have argued</a> that they are the laggards of regulatory reform. </p>
<p>A change to how road use is funded could significantly alter which roads are funded, what maintenance is done, and how networks are managed. It appears to have been all too much for this government. This task awaits a future government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-changing-direction-on-how-we-tax-drivers-will-cost-us-all-87931">Delay in changing direction on how we tax drivers will cost us all</a>
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<p>The alternative government’s most important promises aren’t the sexy ones about electric vehicles. They are <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/media/1539/2018_alp_national_platform_constitution.pdf">Labor’s promises</a> that Infrastructure Australia should assess projects before the decision to invest, and to release assessed business cases. These promises may sound worthy and a little dull, but in reality they are big and welcome commitments. </p>
<p>Less obvious is how to square them with federal Labor’s promise to advance high-speed rail, or the promise to <a href="https://www.billshorten.com.au/getting_melbourne_s_suburban_rail_loop_on_a_faster_track_sunday_14_october_2018">work with the Victorian premier “to deliver the visionary Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop”</a>. Both of these are massively expensive projects with nothing approaching an assessed and publicly available business case.</p>
<p>It would be a significant improvement if whichever party wins government next month were to commit to, and follow through on, careful assessment of transport gaps and problems, consideration of the various feasible solutions, and rigorous evaluation of the preferred approach. And it’s not enough just to do this; it should be done in public.</p>
<p>Let’s hope.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.
</span></em></p>The Coalition’s infrastructure budgets over this term of government have been around the midpoint of government investment over the past decade. But how projects are chosen leaves a lot to be desired.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1145972019-04-02T18:46:09Z2019-04-02T18:46:09ZBudget transport spending is about par for the course, but the pattern is unusual<p>The budget just before an election seems to have a special quality: the transport infrastructure will surely be more plentiful than usual, and carefully chosen to shore up the electoral bulwarks. But don’t get too excited: this year the rhetoric may be big, but the scale of the numbers is nothing unusual. What is different is the pattern of spending over the budget’s four-year forward estimates.</p>
<p>The budget estimates a transport spend of A$7.4 billion for the coming year, 2019-20, and $33 billion over the forward estimates period. The 2019-20 expenditure estimate amounts to 0.37% of GDP – comparable to what we’ve seen in recent years. In fact, governments have spent between 0.26% and 0.53% of GDP under Treasurers Morrison, Hockey and Swan, and Treasurer Frydenberg is no different.</p>
<p>What’s particularly interesting about this budget, though, is that the treasurer is chancing his arm on the medium term. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267093/original/file-20190402-177175-1h08ig9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Usually treasurers leave themselves some wriggle room in the outyears. They can always spend more if the cash is available, and invariably they do. Plus, it gets easier to estimate what will be spent as the time of spending draws closer. </p>
<p>Of course, these days much of the promised spending is further into the future than the forward estimates. The government is touting a $100 billion, ten-year <a href="https://buildingourfuture.gov.au/assets/documents/10_Year_Infrastructure_Pipeline.pdf">Infrastructure Investment Pipeline</a>. There’s money all over the country.</p>
<h2>Where does the money go?</h2>
<p>Victoria gets particularly big-ticket items in this budget, totalling $6.2 billion, and somewhat more of it within the next four years than other states. In New South Wales, the longer-term package totals $7.3 billion, including $3.5 billion for the Western Sydney north-south rail link as well as a $1.6 billion upgrade to the M1 Pacific Motorway extension to Raymond Terrace. </p>
<p>But if you look at what’s happening within the next four years, a notable larger item is a road safety package, totalling $400 million over four years. The longer-term goal is for this package to cost $2.2 billion. </p>
<p>Some of the other longer-term spending is squarely focused on rural and regional areas. This includes a billion to improve the Princes Highway in NSW, Victoria and SA. </p>
<p>If it all comes to pass, there’s something here for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.
</span></em></p>Despite boasts of ‘record’ infrastructure spending, relative to GDP it’s comparable to previous budgets. What’s different is that Treasurer Frydenberg has chanced his arm more over the longer term.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1145982019-04-02T10:04:10Z2019-04-02T10:04:10ZCongestion-busting infrastructure plays catch-up on long-neglected needs<p>Infrastructure spending is one of the central themes of Treasurer Frydenberg’s budget speech. His headline announcement was the promise to increase the ten-year federal infrastructure spend from the A$75 billion announced last year to a target of $100 billion. </p>
<p>Major projects previously announced – like the Melbourne Airport rail link, Western Sydney’s north-south airport rail link and Queensland’s Bruce Highway upgrade – are affirmed. A fast rail connection from Melbourne to Geelong is added. Also added are nation-wide packages of roadworks targeted at reducing congestion and improving regional freight corridors.</p>
<p>So the announcements continue the infrastructure program detailed in the 2018-19 budget, as promoted regularly in the government’s expensive “Building Our Future” advertising campaign that gives prominence to the government’s ten-year “Infrastructure Pipeline”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-budget-2019-at-a-glance-114289">Infographic: Budget 2019 at a glance</a>
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<h2>Lack of transparency is an issue</h2>
<p>It needs saying that analysts have found it difficult to verify what last year’s $75 billion promise actually involved. The claim is the subject of a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201819/Infrastructure">major investigative paper by the Australian Parliamentary Library</a>, with its authors observing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Parliamentary Library has been unable to locate any public document which provides a transparent overview of [the federal government’s] total infrastructure commitments.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>One suspects that scrutiny over coming weeks of the $100 billion infrastructure spending promises will be thwarted by a repetition of this lack of transparency.</p>
<h2>Why are infrastructure needs so great?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/Population">national population growth story</a> is the key framework for assessing the Coalition’s infrastructure plan. Between 1901 and 1948, the nation grew steadily, but modestly, from a population of 3.8 million to 7.7 million. Then the population surged on the back of a post-war baby boom and an expansion of immigration. The population grew by between 2.0 and 2.5 million people each decade from the 1950s through to the 2000s. </p>
<p>But in the last decade, the nation has added nearly 6 million people, with the east coast cities overwhelmingly hosting the increase. Urban infrastructure planning and spending have lagged. Both quality of life and economic productivity have been affected adversely as a consequence.</p>
<p>The infrastructure spending in this budget responds to community concerns about these declines.</p>
<p>We now know we failed to properly plan for and fund the surge in urban growth that has carried congestion on its back. Instead, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08111146.2016.1235034?casa_token=JZ87b43jKfsAAAAA:4CYq12H1N4Hddq0IxoJ93gfPfvN-YN4Vl5TJsRJL56XcNzX54kOpmkt6H_b85H6py-emtkl_CpfelA">large federal government surpluses from the 1990s were steered into debt paybacks</a>. </p>
<p>The Future Fund was also created to cover public service pension liabilities. That fund is now custodian of over <a href="https://www.futurefund.gov.au/investment/investment-performance/portfolio-updates">$150 billion worth of assets</a>.</p>
<p>Dissolving pension liabilities is wise economic management. Australia’s problem is that this resolution took place at the expense of national capital works spending. Around this time, the state-owned utilities that had taken responsibility for the roll-out of post-war infrastructure – with their regular, predictable annual capital works budgets and their vast in-house planning and delivery offices – were on their last legs.</p>
<p>The loss of committed funding and the erosion of the utilities <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/infrastructure/report">stalled infrastructure delivery</a> at a time in Australian history when it was most needed. The urban infrastructure projects for coping with the acceleration of urban growth are only now coming on stream. </p>
<p>New funding streams have had to be found, led by a new round of state-based asset sell-offs – in New South Wales especially – and new models of private sector delivery, ownership and operation. Pretty much all new urban infrastructure projects in Australia are now some sort of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2005.00385.x">private public partnership</a>.</p>
<p>But, as this budget confirms, private sector involvement in infrastructure spending and delivery needs to be leveraged on the back of public funding and protected from project risk by a raft of government measures. An important risk amelioration measure involves decision-making technologies. </p>
<p>Here, the growing expertise within the federal government’s Infrastructure Australia unit is increasingly important. Established by the Rudd Labor government a decade ago, IA struggled for legitimacy for many years. Now we can see <a href="https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/IA18-4005_Priority_List_2019_ACC_L.pdf">Infrastructure Australia’s priority lists</a> – based on its independent assessments – dominating government budget announcements. Indeed, the government’s ten-year <a href="https://buildingourfuture.gov.au/assets/documents/10_Year_Infrastructure_Pipeline.pdf">Infrastructure Investment Pipeline</a> is a very close reproduction of Infrastructure Australia’s national priority listing. Which is a good thing.</p>
<h2>Why the focus on roads?</h2>
<p>The problem, of course, is that rather than infrastructure steering urban growth, as would have been the case had the Howard Coalition government not dramatically lowered the level of national capital works spending, infrastructure spending now chases urban growth. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the Morrison government packages a bundle of roads spending as “urban congestion” measures, acknowledging that transport planning has been inadequate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-budget-tax-upmanship-as-we-head-towards-polling-day-114183">View from The Hill: budget tax-upmanship as we head towards polling day</a>
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<p>The concentration on roads spending also acknowledges that the millennial growth surge in our cities has been geographically perverse. Greenfields residential projects are rarely aligned to public transport systems. And jobs growth has been a mix of CBD obsession and suburban scatter. </p>
<p>The result is congestion of antiquated CBD-centric public transport systems and suburban journey-to-work patterns that make retrofitting of public transport an impossible task.</p>
<p>No doubt there will be criticism of this budget’s apparent obsession with roads spending. The unfortunate reality is that large sections of our cities are stuck with the roads-based configuration that was instilled into their DNA from the get-go. Roads – not rail – are the thoroughfares that define transport options across our new suburban areas into the future. </p>
<p>Getting used to road spending and having constructive things to say about road use are a major challenge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phillip O'Neill receives funding from Australian Research Council, specifically DP130104319 'Tracing modes of infrastructure financing and their effects on cities"</span></em></p>The focus on roads reflects the fact that this infrastructure program lags well behind the growth of our biggest cities, resulting in less-than-ideal transport patterns.Phillip O'Neill, Director, Centre for Western Sydney, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1125312019-03-13T19:07:12Z2019-03-13T19:07:12ZHow the NSW election promises on transport add up<p>Sydney is awash with construction activity – new motorways, light rail and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/which-lines-are-priorities-for-sydney-metro-conversion-hint-its-not-bankstown-111844">Metro project</a> are all part of an infrastructure deluge. And as New South Wales voters head to the polls, the two major parties keep raining promises on electorates of ever-larger, ever-faster transport projects.</p>
<p>But with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/three-in-10-nsw-voters-to-go-early-expert">early voting now open</a>, it’s time to take stock. And Grattan Institute has tallied the numbers to help make sense of it all. </p>
<p>First, the total cost: <a href="https://www.michaeldaley.com.au/our_plan">Labor is promising</a> about A$50 billion of transport projects, and <a href="https://nsw.liberal.org.au/Our-Plans">the Coalition</a> about A$70 billion. And the five largest projects on each side together account for more than three-quarters of the total cost. This matters – the bigger the project, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">the more likely it’ll go over budget, and in a big way</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263298/original/file-20190312-86703-16evbyx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
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<p>So far, 14 projects have been announced with price tags in the billions of dollars. Each A$1 billion equates to around A$125 from every person in NSW. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263299/original/file-20190312-86707-1e33ztu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>How different are the party platforms?</h2>
<p>A striking difference between this election and the Victorian election last November is how much the major parties actually agree on. Both support three of the four largest projects. Voters take note: no matter who wins, you can expect to pay for most of the transport infrastructure promises now on offer.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263305/original/file-20190312-86682-lxmgp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The major difference is in the parties’ positions on roads – especially toll roads. The Coalition is backing the A$14 billion Western Harbour Tunnel & Beaches Link and the A$2.6 billion F6; Labor is promising to scrap them. </p>
<p>Before he resigned as state Labor leader last November, Luke Foley declared that Labor would “unashamedly prioritise public transport over toll roads”. His successor, Michael Daley, appears to have held the course.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263301/original/file-20190312-86678-161fkp9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The bulk of public transport spending by both sides will be on rail, nearly all of it in Sydney. An exception is the Liberals’ plan for regional fast rail. Sound familiar? Just a few months ago, the then leader of the Victorian Liberals, Matthew Guy, tried to woo voters with a similar promise. </p>
<p>Unlike their southern counterparts, the Berejiklian government is not taking an actual plan to the election, just a commitment to plan. It’s a move they might’ve learned from Victorian Labor Premier <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-22/melbourne-50-billion-dollar-rail-loop-planning-questioned/10385702">Daniel Andrews and his promised A$50 billion rail loop</a>. The NSW Liberals have not provided any cost estimates for fast rail, so Grattan Institute has excluded it from these charts; safe to say, including it would make the Coalition’s total spending promises even more enormous.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">How much will voters pay for an early Christmas? Eight charts that explain Victoria’s transport election</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>The coming transport infrastructure wave is heavily focused on Sydney. Both parties are set to pour cash into western Sydney, a clear battleground. It’s not surprising that regional NSW gets less of the transport love – voters outside the capital might be more concerned with hospitals and schools than with transport, particularly if they face little congestion. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263302/original/file-20190312-86693-1vjxscr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>How well justified are these projects?</h2>
<p>Election campaigns can feel like birthday parties, with politicians bestowing gifts upon voters. But these gifts are largely paid for by the taxpayer, or by motorists in the case of tollways. Big infrastructure doesn’t come with a gift receipt; voters need to know in advance whether these projects’ benefits outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Infrastructure NSW and Infrastructure Australia are two independent bodies that can identify worthy projects and assess business cases. Only two major projects have a tick of approval from either of those bodies – Sydney Metro (City and Southwest sections), and Stage 1 of the F6. </p>
<p>The Coalition supports both of these, whereas Labor supports only the City section of Sydney Metro. It is unclear why Labor would walk away from projects with established net benefits to the community.</p>
<p>Voters should be concerned that the other promised infrastructure is either not recommended or lacks business cases.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263303/original/file-20190312-86717-1u9ssn6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>It can be difficult for an opposition to complete a business case, given it doesn’t have access to department resources. The government has no such excuse. Making promises without first scrutinising them forces voters to make risky decisions. Grattan Institute research shows that <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/">cost overruns were 23% higher for projects announced close to an election</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Reforms promise a better way</h2>
<p>Governments should do their due diligence before election time. Fortunately, there are signs of improvement on this score. </p>
<p>Labor is promising to introduce public planning inquiries on projects worth more than A$1 billion. This should help ensure business cases are completed, independently assessed and accessible to the public before projects are approved. When infrastructure is so costly and, at times, controversial, it’s very worthwhile to strive for community support and bipartisanship.</p>
<p>And Labor promises a new level of transparency in how government operates, by bringing in the independent pricing regulator, IPART, and the Auditor-General to shine a light on toll road contracts. </p>
<p>Labor also promises to strengthen the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) so that it runs all year round, not just before elections. Much like the Victorian PBO, this would enable minor parties to have their policies costed as well.</p>
<p>With 30% of voters planning to cast their ballots early this election, the PBO should also be required to publish budget impact statements two weeks before the election, not five days. This would help early voters to make informed decisions, as well as raising public suspicion about any policy announced in the fortnight before election day, too late for costing. </p>
<p>Recent experience suggests that promising splashy projects with big price tags can be very effective at election time. With more accountability and better processes, voters mightn’t be so easily swept off their feet.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246">We hardly ever trust big transport announcements – here's how politicians get it right</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities. The State Orange Book 2018, from which this article draws, was supported by a grant from the Susan McKinnon Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>The major parties are promising projects costing tens of billions of dollars, with a surprisingly large overlap between them. Yet only two have been endorsed by infrastructure authorities.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteJames Ha, Graduate Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1118442019-03-12T19:08:01Z2019-03-12T19:08:01ZWhich lines are priorities for Sydney Metro conversion? Hint: it’s not Bankstown<p>A rail line to the northwest growth areas of Sydney has been proposed many times. In 2010, the state government and bureaucracy sought discussions with Infrastructure Australia and the Commonwealth about funding an extension of the heavy-rail system from Epping on a North West Rail—Hills District Line. In 2012, the new transport minister (and now premier), Gladys Berejiklian, changed the plan, opting for a single-deck robotic privatised metro similar to those proposed by property developer and rail operator Hong Kong MTR. The government decided to close the Bankstown line for <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/">Sydney Metro</a> conversion and upzone surrounding suburbs for “urban activation”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263282/original/file-20190312-86717-16i983z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">OpenStreetMap Contributors</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-metros-sydenham-to-bankstown-line-nirvana-or-nightmare-65247">Sydney Metro's Sydenham-to-Bankstown line – nirvana or nightmare?</a>
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<p>Days before Christmas 2018, we transport analysts received a gift: an update to the station <a href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/train-station-entries-and-exits-data">barrier counts dataset</a>. The government had not released this <em>annual</em> snapshot since 2014. (An interactive data visualisation tool is available <a href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGIxNjBiNTMtNjFiZS00NWExLTg1NjgtYWE4Y2FjN2FhZGZiIiwidCI6ImU4OTExYzI2LWNmOWYtNGE5Yy04NzhlLTUyNzgwN2JlODc5MSJ9">here</a>.) </p>
<p>The below analysis uses average workday (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) patronage to describe the changing demand across the Sydney rail network (<a href="https://www.railmaps.com.au/sydney.htm">click here for a map</a> of the network) and determine where the need for transport infrastructure investment is greatest.</p>
<p>The analysis clearly show that the metro conversion of the Bankstown line should not be Sydney’s top-priority investment. The numbers make clear the need to invest the state’s limited funds in the western and southern corridors with matching investment in the CBD. The Bankstown project should be deferred.</p>
<p>Demand on Sydney’s western and Illawarra heavy-rail corridors has surged since 2004 (when barrier counts began). These are two of the city’s most important transport trunks. The Bankstown line has much lower patronage with modest growth.</p>
<p>Every transport infrastructure investment must deliver value for money by reducing operating costs and improving mobility. If we fail to invest wisely, Sydney risks becoming uncompetitive as talent and businesses leave for better-connected and more liveable cities.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-sydneys-transport-system-has-gone-off-the-rails-90301">This is how Sydney's transport system has gone off the rails</a>
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<h2>The Bankstown decision from a 2012 perspective</h2>
<p>To determine if the Bankstown conversion was the highest priority in 2012 we need to consider the information available to the minister at the time. Let’s start with the obvious questions: in 2012 was the Bankstown line or its major stations under significant load or growing quickly?</p>
<p><iframe id="ZAzc9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZAzc9/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The above chart shows five of the top 20 stations were in the CBD, six were on the Eastern-Illawarra line, and nine were on the West and North lines. Bankstown line stations were not especially popular: Bankstown station was 27th most popular, Campsie 35th, Lakemba 53rd and Marrickville 63rd. </p>
<p>Another reason to justify the Bankstown line conversion would be rapid growth. However, in 2012 the ten stations with the fastest growth since 2004 were in the CBD and on the West, South, North and Airport lines.</p>
<p><iframe id="7mOg9" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7mOg9/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>From 2004 to 2012, Parramatta grew by 4,600 passengers on an average workday, and Hurstville by over 4,100. Growth at Campsie and Lakemba was a mere 1,000 passengers a day, and only half of that at Bankstown. </p>
<p><iframe id="1aTzv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1aTzv/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>So when the development decision was made the Bankstown line stations were not major stations, nor under significant load, nor growing quickly. This raises questions about the Metro conversion investment.</p>
<h2>The Bankstown decision from a 2018 perspective</h2>
<p>Passenger demand grows on a train line for many reasons. In 2012, Berejiklian might have been aware of a coming surge in patronage on the Bankstown line. In 2018, have we seen such a surge?</p>
<p>Sydney railway patronage has indeed surged overall, growing by over 450,000 people on an average workday since 2004. By 2018, the distribution of these passengers had changed significantly. Ashfield, Epping, Hornsby and Kogarah slipped out of the top-20 stations to be replaced by Mascot (17th), Auburn (18th), Lidcombe (19th) and Museum (20th).</p>
<p>Bankstown line stations had become less important:</p>
<ul>
<li>Bankstown slipped to 33rd most popular</li>
<li>Campsie rose to 35th </li>
<li>Marrickville was steady at 62nd </li>
<li>Lakemba plummeted to 67th. </li>
</ul>
<p><iframe id="0paex" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0paex/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>From 2012 to 2018, Town Hall ranked first for patronage growth with a workday increase of 28,900 passengers. Parramatta was fourth with 15,400 and Hurstville 16th with 4,600.</p>
<p>On the Bankstown line Campsie ranked 33rd with growth of 2,000 and Bankstown 49th with 1,400. Estimated patronage at four of the stations – Wiley Park, Yagoona, Lakemba, Regents Park – actually fell.</p>
<p>After land around Canterbury was transformed into many massive apartments, patronage at the station grew by 1,300 workday passengers since 2012. Even with the development, it still had only 3,200 workday passengers, leaving the station 91st in the whole sprawling network.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
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<h2>Comparing sections of the network</h2>
<p>Multiple stations operate in concert and to be thorough we also need to consider how sections of the network compare.</p>
<p>The ten Bankstown line stations from Marrickville to Bankstown had 36,800 workday passengers in 2012. By 2018 this had grown by 7,000 to 43,800 workday passengers. It is still a relatively quiet line.</p>
<p>The North line from North Strathfield to Epping had eight stations with 36,100 workday passengers in 2012. By 2018, this had grown by 12,700 workday passengers to 48,800. </p>
<p>Over the same period, the 13 stations on the Illawarra line from Arncliffe to Sutherland grew by 15,600 to 79,400 workday passengers. </p>
<p>The three Eastern Suburbs line stations from Kings Cross to Bondi had higher patronage in 2012 than the Bankstown line with 40,200 workday passengers. Patronage on those three stations alone also grew much faster, by 17,600 in six years to 54,800.</p>
<p>Patronage on the Western corridor (Macdonaldtown to Blacktown) has grown by 58,000 to over 225,000 workday passengers. On the Illawarra corridor patronage grew 25,000 to over 103,000. </p>
<p>Remember, patronage on the Bankstown line grew by only 7,000 in this 2012-18 period.</p>
<p>Looking at key stations between 2004 and 2018:</p>
<ul>
<li>Bankstown patronage grew by 25%</li>
<li>Stanmore, which doesn’t have a lift and gets only one train every 15 minutes, grew by 33%</li>
<li>Burwood grew by 64%</li>
<li>Parramatta by 79%</li>
<li>Newtown by 100%</li>
<li>Homebush by 125%.</li>
</ul>
<p>In the Illawarra corridor:</p>
<ul>
<li>Hurstville station grew by 66%</li>
<li>Erskineville by 97%</li>
<li>Banksia, Carlton and Allawah stations all had over 100% growth.</li>
</ul>
<p>The City Circle from Redfern to Circular Quay and back grew by 159,000 workday passengers from 236,000 in 2004 to 395,000 in 2018 – a 67% increase.</p>
<p>In 2012, the city’s first transport priority was another north-south harbour crossing. However, it was decided instead to build the Sydney Metro under the harbour and then take both of the CBD’s north-south heavy-rail corridors. This significantly increased the cost and complexity of expanding the heavy-rail system.</p>
<p>Sydney’s second transport priority was always a western relief line. Every transport investigation since the 1971 Sydney Area Transport Study has identified this need. </p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>On February 11, the state Labor opposition <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-commits-8-billion-to-fast-track-sydney-metro-west-20190211-p50wyi.html">promised $5 billion</a> for the Western Metro, in addition to $3 billion previously promised by the federal Labor opposition.</p>
<p>On March 4, the state Coalition government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-premier-says-construction-of-metro-west-line-to-begin-2020-20190303-p511g6.html">announced $6.4 billion</a> for a Western Metro, with the construction date to be brought forward. </p>
<p>The government announcement was made after the caretaker period for the March 23 state election had begun, so no technical or financial documentation was released. The government statement said the final business case was not complete, indicating that the Western Metro project was still in the early planning stages. </p>
<p>With a slowing economy and falling house prices there will be a post-election reprioritisation of NSW project spending. When this happens, the next government should give higher priority to the western rail corridor than the Bankstown corridor. </p>
<h2>Postscript</h2>
<p>Any discussion of infrastructure decisions should note the affected electorates. The seats around the Bankstown line and their <a href="http://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2015/la/state/tpp/index.htm">vote tallies</a> in the last state election are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Summer Hill (Labor 70.13% two party preferred in 2015)</li>
<li>Canterbury (Labor 65.69%)</li>
<li>Lakemba (Labor 71.56%)</li>
<li>Bankstown (Labor 63.97%)</li>
<li>Auburn (Labor 55.93%)</li>
<li>Fairfield (Labor 67.79%).</li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mathew Hounsell consults to and works with the NSW Government, Transport for NSW, Sydney Trains, and Sydney Metro. </span></em></p>Every major transport study since the 1970s has identified Sydney’s western rail corridor as the priority for an upgrade. The latest patronage figures confirm that’s where the need is greatest.Mathew Hounsell, Senior Research Consultant, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.