tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/us-government-shutdown-7394/articlesUS government shutdown – The Conversation2024-03-04T13:37:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245872024-03-04T13:37:41Z2024-03-04T13:37:41ZHow much does a government shutdown hurt the economy? Depends how long it lasts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578414/original/file-20240227-20-8h8s6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=114%2C130%2C4993%2C3002&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Congress faces yet another potential shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GovernmentShutdown/46beb94542d041e29fb52751bd371d2f/photo?Query=shutdown%202013&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=26&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=1&vs=true">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the U.S. government shuts down, the immediate and <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683">most visible impact</a> is a rupture in its day-to-day operations.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-what-closed-open-affected-explained-post-office-irs-national-parks-2019-01-05/">many national museums and parks are closed</a>, immigration hearings are postponed and the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know">Food and Drug Administration isn’t doing routine inspections</a> of domestic food-processing facilities.</p>
<p>But beyond these functions and the individual workers and families affected, could a short or lengthy shutdown affect the broader U.S. economy as well? </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mmNLdVoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Constantine Yannelis</a>, a professor at the University of Chicago, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8syQapsAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> examined data from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">2013 government shutdown</a> to better understand its impact. </p>
<h2>An economic speed bump</h2>
<p>A primary channel through which a shutdown affects the economy is through withheld or forgone pay from federal employees who don’t receive their paychecks. </p>
<p>Since consumer spending makes up <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/consumer-spending-trends-and-current-statistics-3305916">about 70% of economic activity</a> in the United States, withholding pay from even some <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/30/1202782481/government-shutdown-federal-workers-contractors-military-dc-maryland-virginia">of the 2 million or so</a> government workers could introduce a significant economic speed bump in the short run. </p>
<p>And that’s exactly what we saw in October 2013, when a partisan standoff in Congress <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/lessons-from-the-last-time-the-government-shut-down">led to a partial shutdown of the government</a> that lasted a little over two weeks. </p>
<p>Well over 1 million federal employees were affected and didn’t receive a paycheck during the shutdown. Some were furloughed – sent home and told not to do anything related to their job. Those deemed “essential” or “exempted” – such as security personnel screening passengers at airports or border patrol agents – were required to continue working at their jobs, although they were not receiving paychecks. The government eventually paid both groups the money owed them, regardless of whether they worked, after <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/10/16/235442199/how-we-got-here-a-shutdown-timeline">Democrats and Republicans reached</a> an agreement on Oct. 16, 2013.</p>
<p>My colleague and I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">sought to understand</a> how households responded by tracking how they behaved in the days leading up to, during and following the shutdown using detailed financial data.</p>
<p>We obtained this anonymized data from a personal finance website where people track their income, expenses, savings and debt. Using the paycheck transaction descriptions, we identified over 60,000 households that contained employees of federal agencies affected by the shutdown. These affected employees included both those who were asked to work without pay and those who were furloughed.</p>
<p>As a comparison group, we also identified over 90,000 households with a member who worked for a state government. That would likely mean they have fairly similar levels of education, experience and financial security, yet their paychecks were unaffected by the shutdown.</p>
<h2>Short-term impact on spending</h2>
<p>Our study led to two primary findings. </p>
<p>First, we found that the shutdown led to an immediate decline in average household spending of almost 10%. Surprisingly, despite the fact that most federal workers have stable jobs and income sources, they were quick to cut spending on pretty much everything, from restaurants to clothing to electronics, just days after their pay was delayed.</p>
<p>While households with less money in the bank cut their spending by larger amounts, even those with significant resources and easy access to credit reduced their expenditures. </p>
<p>Second, households with a member who was furloughed and required to stay home from work slashed their spending more dramatically – by 15% to 20%, or almost twice as much as the average of those affected. This larger decline reflected the fact that these households suddenly had a lot more time on their hands. Rather than going out to eat or paying for child care, for example, they could spend more time, say, cooking or watching their own children. </p>
<p>These types of behavioral changes are what help spread the economic effects of a shutdown from the slice of the population that’s immediately affected to a wider group of businesses and individuals in Washington, D.C. And in regions with substantial numbers of federal workers, these declines in spending can greatly hurt the health of the local economy in the short run. </p>
<h2>Long-term impact?</h2>
<p>Whether or not a shutdown has a longer-term economic impact depends on whether employees are paid their forgone wages after its conclusion – and how long the shutdown lasts. </p>
<p>In 2013, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">government repaid</a> even furloughed workers what they would have earned had the shutdown not happened. </p>
<p>This repayment, essentially increasing the size of their first post-shutdown paychecks, had significant and immediate effects on household spending. A sudden spike in spending occurred in the days after the paychecks were disbursed, largely erasing some of the most dramatic declines in spending during the previous two weeks. </p>
<p>The government has usually paid all its employees, “essential” or not, back pay after other shutdowns, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">such as those in the 1990s</a>. While Congress is legally required to pay federal employees who worked during the shutdown, there’s no law requiring the same treatment for nonessential workers. </p>
<p>In addition, the longer the shutdown lasts, the worse its impact. Households might deplete savings or hit their credit card limits as the impasse stretches day after day, giving them additional time to adjust their spending in ways that they could not do with only a few days’ notice. For instance, in 2013, bills for health insurance or tuition payments were largely unaffected. Had that shutdown persisted, households may have started to cut back here as well.</p>
<p>So if Congress refuses to offer furloughed workers back pay, or the shutdown lasts months rather than weeks, the economic impact could be severe. </p>
<p>However, if a shutdown is resolved in a relatively short amount of time, with workers being paid back their regular income, the damage would likely be fairly contained.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-federal-government-shutdown-damage-the-us-economy-90419">article originally published</a> on Jan. 19, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott R. Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Democrat and Republican leaders negotiate a potential spending deal to fund the government, the partial shutdown of 2013 offers some clues about the economic impact should they fail.Scott R. Baker, Associate Professor of Finance, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245862024-02-27T20:00:16Z2024-02-27T20:00:16ZUS temporarily avoids government shutdown but threat remains: 4 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578384/original/file-20240227-24-l6d3lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C931%2C8497%2C4811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Biden and Vice President Harris met on Feb. 27, 2024, with congressional leaders to find a way to avoid a shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/ff2a1de2d69744cf80a497414c3edd8f/photo?Query=biden&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=124199&currentItemNo=7">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congress <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/house-passes-short-term-spending-to-avert-us-government-shutdown?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=Hjm5biAW">temporarily averted</a> a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/government-shutdown-q-a-will-it-shut-down-and-what-you-should-know">partial government shutdown</a> that would have taken effect on March 2, 2024, by passing a very short-term funding extension.</p>
<p>The measure – which gives Congress more time to finalize spending packages for the current fiscal year – keeps funds flowing to government agencies until March 8 for some departments and until March 22 for the others. A short-term spending deal <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/federal-government-shutdown-funding-11-14-23/index.html">reached just a little over three months ago</a>, which helped prevent the last threatened shutdown, had given Congress two deadlines: March 1 and March 8, 2024, with different departments closing down if funding wasn’t passed by each date. </p>
<p>Democrats and Republicans have been far apart on funding the government, as a group of hard-right lawmakers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/world/europe/republicans-spending-shutdown.html">demands spending cuts and conservative policies</a> such as new restrictions on abortion access, as part of any agreement. </p>
<p>If following U.S. politics feels a little like “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107048/">Groundhog Day</a>,” you’re not alone. The Conversation has been covering the increasingly frequent shutdown close calls in recent years by asking experts in politics, economics and other fields to provide context and explain the consequences of a government shutdown. The following is a roundup of some of those articles from our archive. </p>
<h2>1. A shutdown is the wrong way to negotiate a budget</h2>
<p>The small band of conservatives who keep staging these showdown standoffs often use fiscal discipline as a rallying cry. The government is spending too much money, they say, and it’s up to them to put a stop to it. </p>
<p>On the goal of reducing the high U.S. budget deficit – currently about $1.6 trillion – <a href="https://theconversation.com/gop-shutdown-threat-is-the-wrong-way-to-win-a-budget-war-history-shows-a-better-strategy-for-reducing-the-deficit-213938">you won’t get an argument</a> from <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536">Raymond Scheppach</a>, former deputy director of the Congressional Budget Office and retired professor of public policy at the University of Virginia. </p>
<p>But trying to cut the deficit by holding the government hostage is the wrong way to do it, he wrote. </p>
<p>“First of all, shutdowns don’t get results,” Scheppach explained. “The U.S. has had 21 shutdowns over the past five decades, three of which have been major. These have all caused real harm to the U.S. economy, but they haven’t led to the spending levels Republicans wanted.”</p>
<p>If today’s conservatives are serious about cutting the swelling budget deficit, Scheppach suggested they take a different tack – genuine negotiation – which has generally yielded just the results they sought. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gop-shutdown-threat-is-the-wrong-way-to-win-a-budget-war-history-shows-a-better-strategy-for-reducing-the-deficit-213938">GOP shutdown threat is the wrong way to win a budget war − history shows a better strategy for reducing the deficit</a>
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<h2>2. Why political brinkmanship keeps getting worse</h2>
<p>One big problem with negotiation is that many lawmakers in both political parties are encouraged by increasing levels of hyperpartisanship to dig in their heels and refuse to compromise. And compromise is a key part of any reasonable negotiation.</p>
<p>That’s the assessment of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cfH3-8sAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Laurel Harbridge-Yong</a>, a Northwestern University political scientist and a specialist in partisan conflict. <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-government-funding-running-out-soon-expect-more-brinkmanship-despite-public-dismay-at-political-gridlock-217252">She doesn’t expect this to change anytime soon</a> – even though the public wants it to.</p>
<p>“So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden,” Harbridge-Yong wrote. “However, even if individual members think they’re representing their constituents, representation at the aggregate level can be poor. What the public as a whole – which tends to be more moderate – wants is compromise and resolution.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-government-funding-running-out-soon-expect-more-brinkmanship-despite-public-dismay-at-political-gridlock-217252">With government funding running out soon, expect more brinkmanship despite public dismay at political gridlock</a>
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<h2>3. Shutdowns have long-lasting costs</h2>
<p>The group of Americans most directly affected by a shutdown are federal workers. When a shutdown happens, most are furloughed without pay, while others whose work is deemed essential – such as many in national defense – must still work, but also without getting a paycheck. </p>
<p>When the shutdown ends and the government is funded again, paychecks resume and workers get back pay for however long it lasted. But shutdowns <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-shutdowns-hurt-federal-worker-morale-long-after-paychecks-resume-especially-for-those-considered-nonessential-214431">can have lingering effects on worker morale and retention rates</a>. That drives up the price tag of shutting down the government and can cause long-term damage, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AJLW1HwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Susannah Bruns Ali</a>, an assistant professor of public policy and administration at Florida International University. </p>
<p>“Shutdowns lead to more people being more likely to leave government employment – and higher workloads and lower motivation for those who remain,” she explained. “These conditions may feed Republican political goals, but they harm the millions of Americans who depend on competent, timely assistance from the public servants on the government payroll. This ultimately leads to lower work performance and employee retention problems.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-shutdowns-hurt-federal-worker-morale-long-after-paychecks-resume-especially-for-those-considered-nonessential-214431">Government shutdowns hurt federal worker morale, long after paychecks resume − especially for those considered 'nonessential'</a>
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<h2>4. Shutdowns are uniquely American</h2>
<p>Many other countries also seem to have a great deal of political partisanship, so you might expect fights over government shutdowns to be relatively common. </p>
<p>If you thought that, <a href="https://theconversation.com/shutdowns-are-a-uniquely-american-drama-in-the-uk-its-just-not-parliaments-cup-of-tea-213928">you’d be wrong</a>, according to <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/garretm.cfm">Garret Martin</a>, who studies transatlantic relations at the American University School of International Service. </p>
<p>“Other Western democracies experience polarization and political turmoil, too, yet do not experience this problem,” he explained. Take the British system, famous for its raucous Parliamentary sessions: “Government shutdowns just don’t happen – in fact, there has never been one and likely never will be.”</p>
<p>The reason for the difference comes down to four factors, Martin explained: legislative power, ease of passing a budget, political stakes and appropriation rules.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shutdowns-are-a-uniquely-american-drama-in-the-uk-its-just-not-parliaments-cup-of-tea-213928">Shutdowns are a uniquely American drama − in the UK, it's just not Parliament's cup of tea</a>
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<p><em>This article was updated on March 1, 2024, to reflect a new short-term funding deal.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Congress is again on the brink of a government shutdown less than four months after the last close call.Bryan Keogh, Managing EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172502023-11-13T13:33:19Z2023-11-13T13:33:19ZAs yet another deadline looms, a divided US House stumbles closer to a federal shutdown: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558696/original/file-20231109-15-3o1kq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1253%2C576%2C3551%2C2622&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson arrives for a GOP meeting at the Capitol on Nov. 7, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-mike-johnson-arrives-for-a-house-news-photo/1768479565?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Once again, federal budget negotiations are down to the last minute, and once again, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/house-speaker-mike-johnson-is-running-out-of-time-to-avoid-government-shutdown#xj4y7vzkg">GOP hardliners</a> are in the middle of what might turn into a gridlock. </p>
<p>Current government funding expires on Nov. 17, 2023. While newly elected Speaker of the House Mike Johnson <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-us-house-speaker-johnson-nears-choice-avoiding-govt-shutdown-2023-11-08/">has not announced</a> any <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/politics/house-republicans-government-funding/index.html">new and specific proposals</a> that stand a chance of passage in the Democratic-controlled Senate, he has urged the public to “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/07/congress-shutdown-house-gop-plan/">trust us</a>.”</p>
<p>The Conversation has published the work of several scholars who study Congress and federal budgets. They explain the brinkmanship politics and the economic consequences of federal shutdowns. Here, we spotlight five examples of those scholars’ work.</p>
<h2>1. How a government shutdown affects the economy</h2>
<p>In the past four decades, the government <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/government-shutdowns-how-long-lasted-years-parties-power-rcna117508">has shut down 20 times</a>.</p>
<p>During the Trump administration, the government <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-shutdown-announcement-1125529">shut down three times</a>, the longest starting three days before Christmas in 2018 and lasting 34 days.</p>
<p>Northwestern finance scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8syQapsAAAAJ&hl=en">Scott R. Baker</a> examined a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1094202516300308?via%3Dihub">shutdown in 2013</a> to determine both short- and long-term effects of the federal government closing down. </p>
<p>Baker wrote that the most immediate impact of a shutdown is on the government’s day-to-day operations. </p>
<p>“Many national museums and parks are closed, immigration hearings are being postponed, and the Food and Drug Administration isn’t doing routine inspections of domestic food-processing facilities,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-government-shutdown-affects-the-economy-109688">Baker wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Whether or not a shutdown has a longer-term economic impact, Baker explained, depends on “how long the shutdown lasts and whether employees are paid their foregone wages after its conclusion.” </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-government-shutdown-affects-the-economy-109688">How a government shutdown affects the economy</a>
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<h2>2. Congressional dysfunction?</h2>
<p>As a public policy expert and former deputy director of the Congressional Budget Office, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536/">Raymond Scheppach</a> said he believes the challenges in 2023’s negotiations over the budget are the greatest faced in the last five decades. </p>
<p>The reason, Scheppach explained, is the result of “the magnitude of the differences” between the Republican and Democratic parties, as well as the split between the GOP-controlled House and the Senate, where the Democrats hold sway.</p>
<p>“A worst-case scenario could see a government shutdown for several weeks, or even a couple of months – and that could have a significant negative impact on the economy,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-needs-to-pass-12-funding-bills-in-11-days-to-avert-a-shutdown-heres-why-that-isnt-likely-212520">he wrote</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-needs-to-pass-12-funding-bills-in-11-days-to-avert-a-shutdown-heres-why-that-isnt-likely-212520">Congress needs to pass 12 funding bills in 11 days to avert a shutdown – here’s why that isn’t likely</a>
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<h2>3. Beyond partisan gridlock</h2>
<p>As a political scientist who studies the evolving budget brinkmanship, <a href="https://gufaculty360.georgetown.edu/s/contact/00336000014TkUCAA0/laura-blessing">Laura Blessing</a> asks an important question: What are the costs of congressional dysfunction?</p>
<p>One such cost is the added bureaucratic burden on federal agencies to submit shutdown plans to the Office of Management and Budget as required by law. Though as of late September, 80% of the plans had been updated since 2021, no two shutdowns are exactly alike, and agencies are continually revising their plans, which help sketch out the variety of ways the shutdown will affect individual Americans.</p>
<p>And that’s the most immediate concern for most people of the country.</p>
<p>“Whether delayed business loans, slower mortgage applications, curtailed food assistance or postponed food inspections, the effects could be substantial,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-this-government-shutdown-shut-down-social-security-and-medicaid-keep-going-sba-loans-and-some-food-and-safety-inspections-do-not-214040">Blessing wrote</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-this-government-shutdown-shut-down-social-security-and-medicaid-keep-going-sba-loans-and-some-food-and-safety-inspections-do-not-214040">What will this government shutdown shut down? Social Security and Medicaid keep going; SBA loans and some food and safety inspections do not</a>
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<h2>4. An ideological battle</h2>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jks9RasAAAAJ&hl=en">David R. Jones</a>, a scholar of Congress, political parties and elections, noted that one important factor in the House dysfunction over the federal budget is the difference in party ideologies. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-the-house-gop-is-not-any-more-dysfunctional-than-the-democrats-even-after-the-prolonged-speaker-chaos-216608">Jones wrote</a>, Democrats generally agree that a functioning government is needed to help solve societal problems. Even dissident factions within the Democratic Party are typically unwilling to shut down government operations indefinitely in order to extract concessions from their leadership.</p>
<p>Not so the Republicans. </p>
<p>They are more likely to believe, as President Ronald Reagan famously stated, that “government IS the problem,” Jones wrote. </p>
<p>“This means that dissident factions in the Republican Party can much more credibly threaten to indefinitely halt government operations – doing so does not conflict as much with their policy goals. In turn, the fact that they have less incentive to drop their obstruction gives them more leverage over their party’s leadership.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-the-house-gop-is-not-any-more-dysfunctional-than-the-democrats-even-after-the-prolonged-speaker-chaos-216608">3 reasons the House GOP is not any more dysfunctional than the Democrats − even after the prolonged speaker chaos</a>
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<h2>5. Federal workers feel the pain</h2>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://u.osu.edu/zagorsky.1/tag/wealth/">people’s wealth</a>, <a href="https://www.bu.edu/questrom/profile/jay-zagorsky/">Jay L. Zagorsky</a> understands that the loss of a single paycheck can be devastating for many American families.</p>
<p>During the 2019 partial shutdown, about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/shutdown-who-gets-sent-home/?amp;utm_term=.db75457d08e1&noredirect=on&utm_term=.27e7c33902aa">800,000 federal workers</a> were either furloughed or working without pay.</p>
<p>“Going without a paycheck for a few weeks is hard enough,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-workers-begin-to-feel-pain-of-shutdown-as-800-000-lose-their-paychecks-109710">Zagorsky wrote</a>. “If the shutdown lasts months or years, the situation could get very dire for the average government worker.”</p>
<p>Zagorsky noted that there is a bit of good news.</p>
<p>“Congress tends to give all affected workers back pay, regardless of whether they worked during the impasse,” he wrote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-workers-begin-to-feel-pain-of-shutdown-as-800-000-lose-their-paychecks-109710">Federal workers begin to feel pain of shutdown as 800,000 lose their paychecks</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The threat to shut down the federal government to attain political goals appears to be an important factor in the budget negotiations.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2146762023-10-05T12:35:12Z2023-10-05T12:35:12Z2 in 5 US babies benefit from the WIC nutrition program<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551430/original/file-20231002-19-tihdrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=116%2C0%2C6324%2C2570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This safety net program helps infants, toddlers and their moms eat right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-babies-wearing-diapers-royalty-free-image/200017262-008?adppopup=true">Camille Tokerud/Stone via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
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<p>A monthly average of more than <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=106762">6 million U.S. women</a>, infants and young children received benefits in 2022 from the nutrition program known as WIC.</p>
<p>The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, which is federally funded and state-administered, has served hundreds of millions of American families since its <a href="https://www.nwica.org/overview-and-history">inception in 1974</a>. It provides infant formula, food, nutritional education and health care referrals to <a href="https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic/frequently-asked-questions">low-income pregnant women</a>, the mothers of newborns and very young children, and infants and kids up to 5 years old. The government spent about <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/wic-program/">US$5.7 billion on it in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>At its peak, in 2010, the program was helping feed over <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=44783">half of the babies born that year</a>. Participation in the program subsequently declined. About 2 in 5 of the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr028.pdf">3.7 million babies born in the U.S.</a> in 2022 benefited from WIC.</p>
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<h2>Long-term benefits</h2>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1CmLVGsAAAAJ&hl=en">sociologist who researches food insecurity</a> and participation in the safety net programs that help people get enough to eat. To do this, I analyze nationally representative data from the University of Michigan’s <a href="https://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/">Panel Study of Income Dynamics</a>, which started in 1968 and is the longest-running longitudinal household panel survey in the world. My colleagues and I have used this data to follow the same children from birth through adulthood, observing how their life circumstances change over time. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306967">research team</a> followed a group of 1,406 individuals from low-income families from birth through ages 20 to 36 years. We looked at reports of food insecurity from their parents during childhood as compared with their own reports of food insecurity as adults living on their own.</p>
<p>We found that food-insecure children who received benefits from WIC and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extra-snap-benefits-are-ending-as-us-lawmakers-resume-battle-over-program-that-helps-low-income-americans-buy-food-199929">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP</a>, from 1984 to 2019, at anytime from birth to age 17, were four times more likely to report improved food security years later, as young adults, as compared with those who did not receive SNAP or WIC benefits as kids.</p>
<p>We have also found that being food insecure was correlated with having <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/food-insecurity-during-college-years-linked-to-lower-graduation-rate">fewer years of formal education</a> and a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379721003792">higher chance of being food insecure</a> in the future.</p>
<h2>Personal experience</h2>
<p>I have also personally seen how WIC can make a big difference for families.</p>
<p>When I was born in 1985, both of my parents were employed – but we lacked health insurance. My mother found out about WIC through the well-baby clinic in Oakland County, Michigan. While she was on leave from work, my father working two jobs and my older sister still under age 5, the program provided us with health exams, food and additional benefits free of charge.</p>
<p>When my mother returned to her position as a public high school teacher, our needs changed. We no longer needed – or received – the assistance.</p>
<p>The results from the national data study tell my story and the story of many other people: Kids from low-income and potentially food-insecure households can realize a better future with public assistance.</p>
<h2>Funding could be interrupted</h2>
<p>Millions of Americans depend on public safety net programs, whether for a month or for years. That assistance will be jeopardized should the government shut down if Congress fails to pass a budget before its mid-November 2023 deadline.</p>
<p>Federal WIC funding doesn’t flow <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/24/federal-government-shutdown-history-list">during government shutdowns</a>. It “stops immediately when the shutdown occurs,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/09/25/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-secretary-of-agriculture-tom-vilsack/">Tom Vilsack told reporters</a> in late September.</p>
<p>But county and state governments can make <a href="https://www.naco.org/resources/what-counties-need-know-when-government-shutdown-happens">contingency plans to prevent disruption</a>. <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/episode/2023/09/28/minn-dept-of-health-wic-will-operate-during-government-shutdown">Minnesota</a> and <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/09/27/government-shutdown-congress-massachusetts-wic">Massachusetts</a> are among the states doing that.</p>
<p>Even if Congress moves past this budget impasse without a shutdown, the program won’t necessarily be unscathed. House Republicans have been trying to scale it back, and in June the <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/committee-approves-fy24-agriculture-rural-development-food-and-drug">House Appropriations Committee passed</a> a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/01/wic-cuts-congress-budget-shutdown/">measure that would reduce WIC benefits</a> to trim spending. In contrast, legislation in the <a href="https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority/bill-summary-agriculture-rural-development-food-and-drug-administration-and-related-agencies-fiscal-year-2024-appropriations-bill">Senate would instead increase WIC funding</a> in 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noura Insolera has received funding from USDA-ERS. </span></em></p>Funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children quickly halts during government shutdowns.Noura Insolera, Assistant Research Scientist, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139282023-09-28T19:53:34Z2023-09-28T19:53:34ZShutdowns are a uniquely American drama − in the UK, it’s just not Parliament’s cup of tea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550968/original/file-20230928-15-ii5oha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C134%2C5605%2C3596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The obligatory showing of the red briefcase containing budget details is as exciting as it gets in the U.K.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rishi-sunak-british-politician-delivers-the-budget-march-news-photo/1371415688?adppopup=true">Rob Welham/Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When it comes to shutdowns, the U.S. is very much an exception rather than the rule.</p>
<p>Save for a last-minute spending deal in Congress on Oct. 1, 2023, hundreds of thousands of <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-shutdowns-hurt-federal-worker-morale-long-after-paychecks-resume-especially-for-those-considered-nonessential-214431">federal employees will be furloughed</a> and the business of government will grind to a halt. <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know#whatisashutdown">By some accounts</a>, it would be the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/24/federal-government-shutdown-history-list">22nd time since 1976</a> that the U.S. has had to deal with this political paralysis. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t have to be like this – and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/22/why-other-countries-dont-have-government-shutdowns-2/">in most countries it isn’t</a>. Other Western democracies experience polarization and political turmoil, too, yet do not experience this problem. Take for example the U.K., traditionally one of Washington’s closest allies and home to the “<a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/big-ben/much-more-than-a-clock/a-beacon-of-democracy/">mother of parliaments</a>.”</p>
<p>In the British system, government shutdowns just don’t happen – in fact, there has never been one and likely never will be.</p>
<p>So why do they occur in Washington but not London? Essentially, it comes down to four factors: the relative power of the legislature; how easy it is to pass a budget; the political stakes at play; and distinctive appropriation rules.</p>
<h2>1. Legislative power</h2>
<p>There are significant differences in how the legislatures of the U.K. and U.S. shape the budgetary process. </p>
<p>In the U.K., only the executive branch – the party or coalition in power – has the <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/government-spending-how-does-parliament-approve-it">authority to propose spending plans</a>. Parliament, which consists of members from all political parties, maintains an oversight and approval role, but it has very limited power over the budgetary timeline or <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/government-spending-how-does-parliament-approve-it">to amend spending plans</a>. This is a stark contrast with the U.S., where Congress – which may be split or controlled by a party different to the executive – plays a far more consequential role. </p>
<p>The U.S. president starts the budget process by laying out the administration’s funding priorities. Yet, the Constitution grants Congress the <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Power-of-the-Purse/">power of the purse</a> – that is, the power to tax and spend. </p>
<p>Moreover, past legislation has bolstered congressional control. The 1974 Congressional Budget Act helped <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/reflections-congressional-budget-act/">curtail presidential involvement in the budgeting process</a>, giving Congress more authority over the timeline. That gave Congress more power but also offered it more opportunities to <a href="https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/10/richard-nixon-congressional-budget-control-act-history-000282/">bicker and derail the budgetary process</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Thresholds to pass a budget</h2>
<p>Congress and the U.K. Parliament also differ when it comes to their voting rules. Passing the U.S. budget is inherently more complicated, as it requires the support of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>In Parliament, however, the two houses – the elected House of Commons and unelected House of Lords – are not equally involved. The two Parliament Acts of 1911 and 1949 <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/parliament-acts">limited the power of the House of Lords</a>, preventing it from amending or blocking laws relating to budgeting.</p>
<p>Additionally, approving the budget in Westminster requires only an absolute majority of votes in the House of Commons. That tends to be quite a straightforward hurdle to overcome in the U.K. The party in power will typically also command a majority of votes in the chamber or be able to muster one up with the support of smaller parties. It is not, however, so easy in Congress. While a simple majority suffices in the House of Representatives, the Senate still has a 60-vote requirement to close debates before proceeding with a majority vote to pass a bill. </p>
<h2>3. Political stakes</h2>
<p>U.S. and U.K. politicians do not face the same high stakes over budget approval. Members of Congress may eventually pay a political price for how they vote on the budget, but there is no immediate threat to their jobs. That is not so in the U.K. </p>
<p>Indeed, the party or coalition in power in the U.K. must <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/confidence-motions-and-parliament">maintain the “confidence” of the House of Commons</a> to stay in office. In other words, they need to command the support of the majority for key votes. U.K. governments can actually fall – be forced to resign or call for new elections – if they lose formal votes of confidence. Since confidence is also <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/confidence-motions-and-parliament">implied in other major votes</a>, such as over the annual budget proposals, this raises the stakes for members of Parliament. They have tended to think twice before voting against a budget, for fear of triggering a dissolution of Parliament and new elections.</p>
<h2>4. Distinctive appropriation rules</h2>
<p>Finally, rules about appropriation also set the U.S. apart. For many decades, federal agencies could still operate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/09/us/politics/longest-government-shutdown.html">despite funding bills not being passed</a>. That, however, changed with a ruling by then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti in 1980. He determined that it would be illegal for governments to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/09/us/politics/longest-government-shutdown.html">spend money without congressional approval</a>. </p>
<p>That decision has had the effect of making shutdowns more severe. But it is not a problem that the U.K. experiences because of its distinct rules on appropriation. So-called “<a href="https://guidetoprocedure.parliament.uk/articles/Tnyf75h2/votes-on-account">votes on account</a>” allow the U.K. government “to obtain an advance on the money they need for the next financial year.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213928/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the institute he co-directs, namely the Transatlantic Policy Center.</span></em></p>With the US government seemingly heading toward a potentially painful federal shutdown, a scholar explains why such events never occur in the UK.Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144312023-09-28T12:30:09Z2023-09-28T12:30:09ZGovernment shutdowns hurt federal worker morale, long after paychecks resume − especially for those considered ‘nonessential’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550724/original/file-20230927-23-memaj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A government shutdown would affect more than 2 million federal employees, plus more than 3 million contractors. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sunrise-hits-the-u-s-capitol-dome-on-september-30-2021-in-news-photo/1344056675?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unless <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/27/government-shutdown-house-rejects-senate-spending-bill/">Congress and the White House can agree on a budget</a> or extend funding short term, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/shutdown-mccarthy-biden-trump-republicans-e4c37673b6507deaed2902f2166ef759">federal government will shut</a> down on Oct. 1, 2023. </p>
<p>This means that approximately <a href="https://www.fedscope.opm.gov/employment.aspx">2.2 million</a> civilian federal employees would be furloughed and face delayed paychecks and lost work hours – in addition to <a href="https://www.volckeralliance.org/resources/true-size-government">3.7 million federal contractors</a> who would also be forced to stop working and forgo their pay. </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AJLW1HwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of public administration</a> with a focus on government employees’ career paths. Much of my research centers on how turbulent politics filter into career employees’ daily lives, influencing their choices to join, stay with or leave the government workforce. </p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0095399718760589">People don’t leave government</a> because of a single event like a shutdown. </p>
<p>But negative experiences accumulate over time. </p>
<p>Shutdowns lead to more people being more likely to leave government employment – and higher workloads and lower motivation for those who remain. These conditions may feed Republican political goals, but they harm the millions of Americans who depend on competent, timely assistance from the public servants on the government payroll. This ultimately leads to lower work performance and employee retention problems. </p>
<p>My interviews with federal employees show that some will consider leaving if they are told that their work is not essential, they face financial stress or they don’t have a big enough project budget to do their job. </p>
<p>I have found that politicians and other people deriding government employees’ work is another factor that can push them to look for work elsewhere. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people wear hats and warm clothing and hold up signs that say 'I am a federal employee' and 'Sorry, we're closed.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550725/original/file-20230927-25-fngbz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Federal workers protest the government shutdown in Chicago in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/government-workers-protest-the-government-shutdown-during-a-news-photo/1092313396?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Financial stresses</h2>
<p>The first U.S. government shutdown <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/14/politics/first-government-shutdown-1976/index.html">happened in 1976</a>. Since then, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/19/16905584/government-shutdown-history-clinton-obama-explained">government has experienced</a> 21 shutdowns. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/longest-government-shutdown/">shortest shutdown</a> lasted only a day, <a href="https://www.govexec.com/management/2023/09/5-longest-government-shutdowns-us-history/390655/">and the longest</a> – and most recent – in 2019 was 35 days. The average shutdown is 7.6 days if all shutdowns are included. If you exclude the record-setting <a href="https://www.history.com/news/ronald-reagan-government-shutdown-reasons">eight consecutive short shutdowns</a> in 1981, the average length is 11.2 days. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-25/shutdowns-cost-billions-as-us-federal-workers-paid-to-stay-home">shutdowns are often expensive</a>. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that one 35-day shutdown, from December 2018 to January 2019, cost the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-01/54937-PartialShutdownEffects.pdf">U.S. economy over US$3 billion</a>, given the loss of federal workers’ contributions to the economy and other factors. </p>
<p>But federal employees and contractors – people who work for the government, though not in a full-time, salaried capacity – feel the worst effects of a government shutdown. </p>
<h2>Essential and nonessential workers</h2>
<p>Almost all civilian federal employees – with the exception of U.S. Postal Service workers – do not receive paychecks when the government is closed, regardless of whether federal agencies determine their work is considered “essential” or “nonessential.”</p>
<p>A large range of employees, from National Park rangers to medical researchers, are typically considered nonessential and stay home during a shutdown. <a href="https://time.com/6316879/how-government-shutdown-affects-americans/">Essential workers who must stay on the job could include</a> law enforcement officials and federal prison guards. </p>
<p>Both nonessential and essential workers, whether they are working during a shutdown or not, won’t get paid until after the shutdown ends. </p>
<p>Even short delays in pay can have substantial financial effects.</p>
<p>In 2017, a quarter of the federal workforce made less than $56,143 a year, and the <a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/data-analysis-documentation/federal-employment-reports/reports-publications/salary-information-for-the-executive-branch.pdf">median salary was $79,386</a>. Some of these workers live paycheck to paycheck. </p>
<p>My research shows this gap in pay can leave people unable to pay their rent or mortgages and can also lead to <a href="https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/182274/the-dc-guide-to-the-201819-government-shutdown/">difficulty paying</a> for everyday expenses like groceries. </p>
<p>Many end up depending on food banks and other resources to bridge the gap between paychecks. Federal workers like administrative assistants or security guards who receive lower wages, or young workers who haven’t built up financial reserves, are the first affected. </p>
<h2>Different results for employees</h2>
<p>Workers who are considered “essential” must work through a shutdown without receiving pay until after the government reopens. Their “nonessential” peers are not allowed to do any work, also without receiving their salary until the government reopens. </p>
<p>Contractors will not be allowed to work during a shutdown and will never receive any compensation. </p>
<p>But contractors and federal employees are often working in the same office. They are functionally co-workers who know that some will be paid and others will not if a shutdown happens. </p>
<p>Individual managers make the decision about which employees are “essential” and which are not. </p>
<p>Some managers use the work itself to guide their choices, while others may look at fairness concerns and individual employee circumstances, like how long someone has been on the job. </p>
<p>Inconsistency in these decisions leaves room for tensions over fairness. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A row of people stand in a hall and wear purple hats and hold up white papers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550727/original/file-20230927-17-4js43n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Furloughed contract workers, including custodians and security officers, hold unpaid bills on Capitol Hill during a shutdown in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/furloughed-contract-workers-including-security-officers-and-news-photo/1083341754?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Really offended’</h2>
<p>My research shows that a discrepancy in how workers are treated during a shutdown can create workplace conflicts. As a result, employees can wind up feeling low morale, which reduces work productivity.</p>
<p>One federal worker I interviewed following a two-week shutdown in 2013 said: “Up to September 30th we were working 10-hour days. On October 1st we were nonessential.” </p>
<p>Another furloughed employee explained why the division between employees who were asked to continue working or stay home during a shutdown made some people upset. </p>
<p>“We had to put together two lists: mission essential and not. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0095399718760589">People who were not essential</a> were really offended thinking that others thought what they did was not important. That government shutdown had a greater effect than what I thought it was going to have on the workforce,” this employee explained. </p>
<h2>A loss for the workforce</h2>
<p>Shutdowns have other hidden costs that could undermine the federal workforce’s strength. </p>
<p>In 2017, about 45% of <a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/data-analysis-documentation/federal-employment-reports/reports-publications/full-time-permanent-age-distributions/">federal employees were older than 50</a>, while only 6% were younger than 30.</p>
<p>If a wave of future retirements leaves a smaller pool of workers who are questioning their careers in government, this could weaken the federal workforce and its performance. </p>
<p>Shutdowns become a part of workers’ decision-making process about their career paths.</p>
<p>My research shows that workers at the beginning of their careers are more likely to change jobs than colleagues who have been there longer. </p>
<p>Many people I have interviewed also say that the strain of shutdowns made them consider retiring earlier instead of waiting a few more years. </p>
<h2>Long-term damage</h2>
<p>Conservative politicians have long advocated for reducing the size of the federal government. Then-President Ronald Reagan succinctly made this point in 1981, when he said, “<a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/inaugural-address-1981">Government is not the solution</a> to our problem, government is the problem.”</p>
<p>If one views government and spending as fundamentally flawed, then taking drastic action to reduce spending and even shutting down the government becomes a viable path for achieving policy goals and political points. </p>
<p>The problem is that shutting down government is expensive and causes long-term damage.</p>
<p>By authorizing a shutdown, elected officials are signaling in concrete ways that the work of the federal government and its employees is not valued. And regular Americans rely on federal employees to do quality work for all sorts of things, including maintaining national park monuments, inspecting hazardous waste sites and monitoring drinking water facilities. </p>
<p>Even if public proclamations about firing federal employees and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/draining-the-swamp">“draining the swamp”</a> are not acted on, they could make anyone interested in federal service think twice. </p>
<p>I think people need to recognize that government shutdowns have a price that is far greater than a temporary disruption.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susannah Bruns Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While a single shutdown is unlikely to push a government worker to quit, the cumulative effect of multiple shutdowns can lead to low worker morale and employee retention problems.Susannah Bruns Ali, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139382023-09-27T19:56:29Z2023-09-27T19:56:29ZGOP shutdown threat is the wrong way to win a budget war − history shows a better strategy for reducing the deficit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549427/original/file-20230920-19-i4o0j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5725%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Past as prologue: October could bring yet another government shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/united-states-capitol-building-washington-dc-with-royalty-free-image/1094765660">Jorge Villalba/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Congress has just days to keep the federal government from grinding to a halt, and a last-minute deal seems increasingly unlikely. The problem is that lawmakers <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-needs-to-pass-12-funding-bills-in-11-days-to-avert-a-shutdown-heres-why-that-isnt-likely-212520">need to pass a dozen appropriations bills</a> – or a single continuing resolution – by Sept. 30, 2023, in order to keep the government’s lights on. But a key group of House Republicans is refusing to pass anything without steep <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/26/inside-spending-cuts-house-republicans-are-fighting/">spending cuts</a>. No bills, no government – at least for <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-happened-during-the-last-government-shutdown-4-essential-reads-169003">a few days or weeks</a>, anyway. </p>
<p>While fiscal discipline has long been the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/24/government-shutdown-congress-budget/">rallying cry</a> for shutdown supporters, the tactic isn’t necessarily effective at reducing the government’s deficit. </p>
<p>I’ve been following efforts to shut down the U.S. government for one reason or another for more than 40 years, first from various perches at the Congressional Budget Office, then at the National Governors Association, and now as a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536">professor of public policy</a>. History shows that shutdowns are counterproductive – at least as measured by their own defenders’ goals. Fortunately, the past also provides a proven way to reduce the deficit, which I agree is a laudable goal.</p>
<h2>Deficits are too high</h2>
<p>When House Republicans say America’s finances are in bad shape, they do have a point. The deficit, currently estimated at <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget/outlook-budget-and-economy">US$1.5 trillion</a>, and debt held by the public, estimated at $25.8 trillion, are both dangerously high.</p>
<p>Why is the status quo so risky? For one thing, large deficits are inflationary and put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. For another, interest on public debt is now estimated to be <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848">$663 billion</a> a year, which is slightly over 10% of total spending – a huge fiscal burden.</p>
<p>Finally, and most importantly, at some point individuals and foreign countries may <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-debt-default-could-trigger-dollars-collapse-and-severely-erode-americas-political-and-economic-might-198395">dump U.S. treasury bills</a> and bonds on the market because of a loss in confidence. That would make interest rates spike and could create a major economic collapse.</p>
<p>Because of these risks, members of the House Freedom Caucus have threatened to shut down the federal government on Oct. 1, the beginning of the next fiscal year, if they aren’t able to get big cuts to domestic discretionary spending. </p>
<p>Negotiations are further complicated by some House Republicans’ desires to add riders about the border and culture war issues to the must-pass spending bills, as well as the Biden administration’s request for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-asks-us-congress-40-billion-including-24-billion-ukraine-2023-08-10/">$24 billion for Ukraine</a>, which not all party members support. </p>
<h2>Fighting the wrong battle</h2>
<p>I would argue that now is the wrong time for Republicans to take a stand on reducing the deficit, for two reasons. </p>
<p>First of all, shutdowns don’t get results. The U.S. has had 21 shutdowns over the past five decades, three of which have been major. These have all caused real harm to the U.S. economy, but they haven’t led to the spending levels Republicans wanted. </p>
<p>What’s more, in each case, the public <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/government-shutdown-polls/">blamed Republicans</a> for the shutdowns, polls show. Some historians have even suggested that the fallout from the weekslong 1995-96 shutdown contributed to then-speaker <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/11/07/us/the-speaker-steps-down-the-career-the-fall-of-gingrich-an-irony-in-an-odd-year.html">Newt Gingrich having to resign</a> in 1998.</p>
<p>Second, the cuts Republicans are seeking aren’t all that significant. The bottom line is that they’re ignoring national defense and mandatory spending, which together represent <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-02/58848-Outlook.pdf">75% of total spending</a>. The current effort aims only to trim domestic discretionary spending, which makes up a small and shrinking slice of the federal-spending pie – less than 15% in 2023.</p>
<p>At the same time, mandatory spending, including entitlements, totals nearly <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-02/58848-Outlook.pdf">$4 trillion annually</a> and is growing rapidly. So, even if Democrats agreed to the domestic discretionary-spending cuts advocated by the House Freedom Caucus, those savings would be overtaken by growth in entitlement spending – primarily Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – within a year. </p>
<p>What’s more, any serious plan to reduce the federal deficit must consider increasing the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go">$4.8 trillion of federal revenue</a>. The House Freedom Caucus has expressed no interest in raising taxes. </p>
<p>The bottom line, in my view, is that the shutdown strategy is more about creating drama, publicity and campaign fundraising for certain lawmakers than it is about seriously reducing the deficit. </p>
<h2>How to get results</h2>
<p>While it’s never politically easy to cut entitlements or raise taxes, the reconciliation provision in the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/COMPS-10356/pdf/COMPS-10356.pdf">1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act</a> was enacted specifically for this purpose. It allows entitlement cuts and tax increases to be incorporated into the same bill, which cannot be filibustered in the Senate and only needs a majority for passage.</p>
<p>Over the past 40 years, there have been six serious budget negotiations that resulted in deficit reductions. One in 2011, negotiated by then-President Barack Obama and House Majority Leader John Boehner, was likely the <a href="https://manhattan.institute/article/getting-to-yes-a-history-of-why-budget-negotiations-succeed-and-why-they-fail">most successful</a> from a fiscal perspective. When it was finally enacted, it generated $1.95 trillion in deficit reduction over nine years. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a 2011 photograph, Barack Obama and John Boehner are seen in sitting at a table at Cabinet Room of the White House. Boehner has a slight smile; Obama, about to speak, has an expression of satisfaction." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550083/original/file-20230925-17-z6u5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker John Boehner, U.S. President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid discuss the budget and debt limit during negotiations at the White House on July 11, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-barack-obama-meets-with-house-minority-leader-rep-news-photo/118825556">Roger Wollenberg/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A similarly successful negotiation came <a href="https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0619BRdl.pdf">in 1997</a> during the Clinton administration. Lawmakers cut national defense spending by $247 billion, nondefense discretionary spending by $273 billion and entitlements by $374 billion, with interest savings of $142 billion. They also reduced taxes by $220 billion, mostly for low-income individuals, which brought the net total to $816 billion in deficit reduction over 10 years. </p>
<p>In addition to those successes, there were four other negotiations in 1993, 1990, 1985 and 1983 that averaged over $400 billion in deficit reduction, albeit over different timelines. </p>
<p>These examples show that budget negotiations without threatening a shutdown can be effective at enacting major deficit-reduction plans into law. The one during the Clinton administration even led to the budget surpluses in the years from 1998 to 2001, the <a href="https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/New/html/19981028-13004.html">first surpluses since 1969</a>. </p>
<p>History indicates that there are three major requirements for a successful budget negotiation. First, lawmakers must be seriously committed to the goal of deficit reduction. Second, everything needs to be on the table, including revenues, entitlements and national defense. Third, there must be trust among the negotiators. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, I don’t believe any of these requirements can be met today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213938/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shutting down the government won’t help reduce the deficit. Here’s what would.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140402023-09-27T12:28:13Z2023-09-27T12:28:13ZWhat will this government shutdown shut down? Social Security and Medicaid keep going; SBA loans and some food and safety inspections do not<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550335/original/file-20230926-25-7ftzlh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C6%2C4587%2C3014&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A shutdown's effects will be broad and deep.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/government-shutdown-in-washington-interstate-road-royalty-free-image/1095019568?phrase=government+shutdown+congress&adppopup=true">gguy44/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. is moving toward a government shutdown. House and Senate appropriators are divided on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-us-republican-party-thomas-emmer-united-states-house-of-representatives-hockey-744b602f30285f3398da09d1489f37dd">spending levels</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/13/defense-bill-house-republicans-00115530">policy riders</a> and additional items, such as support for Ukraine.</p>
<p>As a political scientist who studies the <a href="https://gai.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Under-the-Iron-Dome-2022-Blessing-book-chapter-on-eroding-budget-process.pdf">evolving budget process</a>, as well as <a href="https://gai.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Blessing-HBC-testimony-debt-ceiling-2-16-22.pdf">brinkmanship</a> in Congress, it is clear to me that this episode prompts many important questions for how the U.S. is governed. </p>
<p>There’s the larger, long-term question: What are the costs of congressional dysfunction? </p>
<p>But the more immediate concern for people of the country is how a shutdown will affect them. Whether delayed business loans, slower mortgage applications, curtailed food assistance or postponed food inspections, the effects could be substantial. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An airplane landing near an air traffic control tower." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550339/original/file-20230926-15-he7bob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Air traffic controller training will be halted in a government shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-air-traffic-control-tower-is-seen-at-the-miami-news-photo/1700958797?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Affected: Farm loans to Head Start grants</h2>
<p>The total federal budget is almost US$6 trillion. <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58890">A little over one-fourth</a> is discretionary spending that is funded by the annual appropriations process and thus debated in Congress. This portion of spending provides money for virtually every federal agency, roughly half of which goes to defense. The rest of yearly federal spending is on mandatory entitlement programs, mainly Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on the national debt. </p>
<p>The Office of Management and Budget, which oversees both development of federal budget plans by federal agencies <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/">and their performance</a>, regularly requires agencies to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/">develop shutdown plans</a>. Because agencies continually update these plans, no two shutdowns are exactly alike. A week before the expected shutdown, 40% of the plans posted had been updated since July 2023, and 80% had been updated since 2021; late-breaking updates can be consequential for policy.</p>
<p>Details depend on the agency, program and duration of the shutdown, as well as laws passed with funding since the previous shutdown, and the administration’s priorities. These plans identify a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/20/extreme-house-republicans-chaos-is-marching-us-toward-a-government-shutdown/">variety of ways</a> the shutdown will affect Americans. </p>
<p>If a shutdown happens this year, new loan approvals from the Small Business Administration <a href="https://www.sba.gov/document/report-sba-plan-operating-event-lapse-appropriations">will stop</a>. The Federal Housing Administration will experience <a href="https://www.hud.gov/sites/dfiles/Main/documents/ShutdownFAQs.pdf">delays</a> in processing home mortgage loans and approvals. The Department of Agriculture will not offer new <a href="https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/usda-2021-contingency-plan.pdf">farm loans</a>. Head Start grants will not be awarded, initially affecting 10,000 young children from low-income families who are in the program. </p>
<p>Some food inspections by the Food and Drug Administration, workplace safety inspections by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and environmental safety inspections by the Environmental Protection Agency could be delayed, as they have been when the government stopped functioning in the past. </p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/14/685369719/government-shutdown-leads-to-a-spike-in-cancelled-immigration-hearings">last shutdown</a>, about 60,000 immigration hearings, organized by the Department of Justice and not the courts, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47077">were canceled and</a> had to be rescheduled. <a href="https://www.aila.org/advo-media/aila-practice-pointers-and-alerts/government-shuts-down">This year</a> would also see cases involving noncitizens who are not being held by the government reset for a later date, even as other immigration services proceed. </p>
<p>Infrastructure projects awaiting approval from the Environmental Protection Agency could be stalled. The National Institute of Health’s clinical trials for diseases could also be slowed.</p>
<p>This is not a comprehensive list. Agency plans show what happens when federal workers are furloughed – that is, those who cannot report to work in a shutdown. Furloughs will apply to <a href="https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2023/09/see-who-would-get-furloughed-shutdown-year/390517/">over 700,000</a> out of <a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2023/09/20/a-disaster-nears-millions-of-federal-workers-paychecks-would-be-on-hold-in-a-shutdown/">roughly 3.5 million</a> federal employees, but even more workers will be “excepted” and required to work without pay until the shutdown ends. </p>
<p>That of course means employee hardship. But like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-jetblue-ceo-says-air-travel-near-tipping-point-2019-1">past shutdowns</a>, unpaid workers can fail to report to work in larger numbers. Americans relying on those services will face delays. There may be air travel delays as well, as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/government-shutdown-affect-air-travel-flights-aad0970">go without pay</a>.</p>
<h2>Not affected: The postal service and entitlement programs</h2>
<p><a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44763/3#:%7E:text=Mandatory%20spending%20is%20composed%20of,the%20bulk%20of%20mandatory%20spending.">Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits</a> are entitlement programs that are not included in the annual appropriations process. Americans relying on these programs will not see those benefits affected. But these programs require administration. Federal employees would not be available to verify benefits or send out new cards.</p>
<p>There are additional funding sources for government activities, beyond entitlement programs, that aren’t included in the annual appropriations bills and thus are unlikely to be affected by a shutdown. </p>
<p>The U.S. Postal Service, independently funded through its own services, will be unaffected by a shutdown. The federal judiciary could <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL34680.pdf">operate for a limited time</a>, funded by court filings, fees and appropriations allocated off the yearly cycle. But this funding <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-judiciary-can-keep-operating-2-weeks-if-government-shuts-down-2023-09-19/">won’t last long</a> – 10 days was an estimate for the 2013 shutdown. The Supreme Court, which has functioned in previous shutdowns, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-what-closes-what-stays-open-2023-09-21/">is expected to continue its typical schedule</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign reading 'Because of the Federal Government SHUTDOWN All National Parks are Closed' is posted on a barricade in front of the Lincoln Memorial." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550349/original/file-20230926-23-gcwhwp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National parks will be closed in a shutdown, as the Lincoln Memorial in Washington was in the 2013 shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GovernmentShutdownFederalWorkers/db15aad4b2e8423f8579363642314974/photo?Query=government%20shutdown&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=7332&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IRS had <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2023/09/irs-to-remain-fully-operational-if-congress-triggers-government-shutdown/">promised</a> that the additional funds from the Inflation Reduction Act meant it could be fully operational in a shutdown. In a sign of how agency plans can get updated at the last minute, the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/266/IRS-FY24LapsePlan.pdf">IRS updated its contingency plan</a> on Sept. 28 following a ruling by the OMB, a change that will result in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/irs-shutdown-furlough-inflation-act/">60,000 furloughed IRS workers</a>. While some activities of the agency will continue, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/irs-shutdown-furlough-inflation-act/">customer service activities</a> to individual taxpayers will halt. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/aaa_fy2024.pdf">variety of advance appropriations</a> also exist that provide funding for various programs one year or more beyond the year the appropriations bill was passed, including Veterans Affairs medical care; most VA benefits are unaffected. </p>
<p>The primary <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2019/01/government-shutdowns-once-incomprehensible-inconceivable-unthinkable-now-the-norm/">law</a> governing funding gaps also makes exceptions for “emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property,” which includes a variety of military activities.</p>
<h2>The big question mark</h2>
<p>The major unknown is, of course, how long a shutdown might last. Food assistance programs – including the federal food program for poorer women, infants and children, called WIC, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP – which have some contingency funds that carry over into the next fiscal year but are running low, run the risk of those accounts running out. </p>
<p>The federal judiciary has limited funds. There are also a variety of <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11554">federal grants to states and localities</a> that could be short on funds, such as disaster relief and economic development programs, in addition to nutrition assistance. Government officials at the federal, state and local levels will have to make choices about whether a federal shortfall should be covered by state funds, or if workers should be furloughed. Some of these funds have been protected by increased funding in recent laws: The <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R47573.html">Highway Trust Fund is solvent through 2027</a>, due to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021.</p>
<p>The economy as a whole will suffer more the longer a shutdown continues. The <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937">Congressional Budget Office estimated</a> that the last shutdown, in 2018-2019, reduced gross domestic product growth by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019. While that 35-day partial shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, it did not affect all agencies.</p>
<p>Federal employees and contractors are disproportionately hurt. Federal employees who are furloughed or excepted and do not receive pay during the shutdown will receive it retroactively, according to a <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/24/text">2019 law</a> passed as a response to the last shutdown. </p>
<p>No such policy exists for contractors working for the federal government, including services ranging from janitorial to manufacturing. Beyond affecting individual workers, the private sector loses business and adjusts its hiring decisions and other practices. </p>
<p><strong><em>This story has been updated to reflect revised shutdown plans for the IRS.</em></strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Blessing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You won’t be able to ignore a government shutdown. From delayed business loans to slower mortgage applications and postponed food inspections, the effects could be substantial.Laura Blessing, Senior Fellow, Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125202023-09-05T12:32:02Z2023-09-05T12:32:02ZCongress needs to pass 12 funding bills in 11 days to avert a shutdown – here’s why that isn’t likely<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545962/original/file-20230901-25-par0qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=70%2C70%2C3264%2C2409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A shutdown last happened in 2018. Could it happen again?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-is-displayed-on-a-government-building-that-is-closed-news-photo/1074601288?adppopup=true">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. senators and representatives returning from their summer vacations will need to shake off their suntans in quick time and get down to business.</p>
<p>Congress has just 11 days when it’s in session before the next <a href="https://www.federaltimes.com/management/budget/2022/09/20/why-the-us-federal-fiscal-year-2023-starts-in-october/">federal fiscal year begins on Oct. 1, 2023</a>. And in that time, it will need to enact all 12 <a href="https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/open-government/statement-of-disbursements/glossary-of-terms">appropriation bills</a> to ensure that government agencies and departments have funding to keep programs going – or face a potential government shutdown.</p>
<p>So will they pull it off? And what will happen if they don’t? As an <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536/">expert of public policy</a> and former deputy director of the Congressional Budget Office, I feel that the challenge this year is the greatest faced since the enactment of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, which made significant reforms in the process. This is due to the magnitude of the differences not only between the two parties but also between the House and Senate. A worst-case scenario could see a government shutdown for several weeks, or even a couple of months – and that could have a significant negative impact on the economy.</p>
<h2>One down, many to go</h2>
<p>The House of Representatives initially faced a workload of 12 appropriation bills to get through Congress. But just before the House broke for August recess, it <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-approves-hr-4366-military-construction-veterans-affairs-and-related">passed one appropriation bill, for military construction</a>.</p>
<p>One down, 11 to go. The problem is the military construction bill is traditionally the easiest to pass, as it is very small – this year it stood at US$19.1 billion in spending. This is substantially less than the largest bill, which is usually the <a href="https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority/bill-summary-labor-health-and-human-services-education-and-related-agencies-fiscal-year-2024-appropriations-bill">Labor, Health, Human Services and Education bill</a>. When reported, or passed, out of the committee in the Senate this year, that bill amounted to $224 billion. Providing money for military construction is also generally done without much controversy, as it includes funding for housing military families – something few members want to oppose.</p>
<p>And while the military construction funding bill passed before the recess, the House leadership had also hoped to pass the <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/subcommittees/agriculture-rural-development-food-and-drug-administration-118th-congress">Agriculture, Rural Development, and Food and Drug bill</a> but did not have the necessary votes for passage.</p>
<p>Complicating matters is that ongoing funding bills could be delayed or derailed by ideological battles in Washington.</p>
<p>The conservative Freedom Caucus in the House is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/21/house-freedom-caucus-potential-shutdown-00112068">pushing for tens of billions of dollars in cuts</a> in the eight appropriation bills that fund domestic spending. The other four are military construction; defense; state and foreign operations; and the legislative branch itself.</p>
<p>Part of this desire for cuts comes from the frustration that conservatives feel over there being virtually no reductions in the <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/5/31/the-fiscal-responsibility-act-of-2023">Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023</a>, which lifted the debt ceiling and was negotiated by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden in late May.</p>
<h2>Ideological impasse</h2>
<p>Members of the Freedom Caucus are also expected to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4162189-freedom-caucus-policy-conditions-stopgap-government-funding-bill/">push for several riders</a> on the appropriation bills that would restrict abortion rights and eliminate funding for LGBTQ+ centers and diversity and inclusion programs. These will be vehemently opposed by Democrats and potentially create an impasse in negotiations. </p>
<p>Another complicating factor is that, recently, the administration <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-administration-seeks-billions-ukraine-aid-teeing-congressional/story?id=102175637">submitted to Congress a request</a> for a $45 billion supplemental appropriation that includes $24 billion for the war in Ukraine. </p>
<p>In the past, these measures would often be attached to either an individual appropriation bill or what is known as <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/09/19/what-s-continuing-resolution-and-why-does-it-matter">a continuing resolution</a>. A continuing resolution generally funds the government at the same level as in the preceding year for a short time, usually a number of days or weeks.</p>
<p>However, there are Republicans in the House who may object to moving such a bill. Congress would also have to declare an emergency to exempt it from the caps in the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59235">Fiscal Responsibility Act</a>.</p>
<p>Members in the House prefer to pass individual appropriation bills, since those are easier to amend. But with time running out, they may be forced to combine all of the outstanding bills into an omnibus bill – with the hopes that it could pass by Oct. 1.</p>
<p>While, constitutionally, appropriation bills must start in the House, they have to be reconciled with whatever version the Senate passes.</p>
<p>The good news here is the Senate Appropriations Committee has <a href="https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority/icymi-murray-leads-senate-appropriations-in-passing-all-12-bills-out-of-committee-in-overwhelming-bipartisan-votes">reported all 12 bills out of committee</a> and thus is ready for the full Senate to consider when it returns. It has also agreed to raise the caps on national defense spending by $8 billion and domestic spending by $5.2 billion above the caps in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.</p>
<p>But differences in spending between what’s in the bills passed by the Senate committee and the much lower levels desired by many Republicans in the House, combined with the ideological arguments over the various riders expected to be adopted by the House, is setting the stage for a chaotic time in late September and early October.</p>
<h2>A history of shutdowns</h2>
<p>So what is likely to happen?</p>
<p>Given the limited number of days the House is in session in September, the speaker has floated the idea of a short-term continuing resolution. This approach has been endorsed by the White House to give time to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-congress-short-term-spending-bill-cr-government-shutdown/">negotiate a permanent solution</a>. But the Freedom Caucus has indicated it will oppose such a measure unless it can attach many of its ideological riders.</p>
<p>Which would leave Congress – and the country – facing a funding gap or potential government shutdown.</p>
<p>Since the 1974 Budget Act, there have been 22 such gaps or shutdowns due to the inability of Congress to enact all the appropriation bills. Three of these shutdowns have been significant. </p>
<p>The first lasted 21 days in 1995-1996 <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/12/683304824/the-longest-government-shutdown-in-history-no-longer-how-1995-changed-everything">during the Clinton administration</a>. It started as a standoff over the debt ceiling but then included disagreements on the appropriations bills. </p>
<p>There were some unique aspects to this standoff. The Republican Senate leader, Bob Dole, was running for president and was not really interested in lengthy negotiations. Meanwhile, House Speaker Newt Gingrich made some inappropriate comments about <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/10347951/US-shutdown-1995-flashback-when-Newt-Gingrich-was-snubbed-on-Air-Force-One.html">being snubbed by the president</a> while traveling on Air Force One, and the press had a field day by linking the shutdown to the snub. Polling showed that the Republicans were being blamed for the shutdown - one indicated <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2011/03/poll-americans-split-on-who-to-blame-for-a-shutdown-050398">46% blamed Republicans</a>, while only 27% blamed Democrats. Republicans finally accepted the Clinton budget proposal.</p>
<p>The second major shutdown lasted 16 days in 2013 during the Obama administration and was triggered by a dispute regarding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. It ended with an agreement between the Obama administration and Republicans on a continuing resolution to fund the government.</p>
<p>The most recent significant funding gap <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/21/us/politics/trump-shutdown-border-wall.html">occurred in December 2018</a> during the Trump administration, when the president stated he would not sign an appropriations bill that did not include his request for $5.7 billion to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. This shutdown lasted 35 days – the longest in history.</p>
<h2>A record shutdown?</h2>
<p>Shutdowns eventually end, but not without first causing damage. Politically, the Republicans received virtually nothing beneficial from the 1995 or 2018 shutdowns, and were in fact <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2011/03/poll-americans-split-on-who-to-blame-for-a-shutdown-050398">blamed for both</a>. Similarly, Republicans received little in 2013 but also seemed to receive less blame.</p>
<p>But there is more than political face-saving at play. The economic cost of the 2018 shutdown was <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937">estimated by the Congressional Budget Office</a> to be $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 and $8 billion during the first quarter of 2019. Much of this was recovered during the next several quarters, but the impact on the individual families of furloughed government workers and businesses that were not able to receive loans or certificates to operate were far greater.</p>
<p>Perhaps more important than the impact on the economy are the huge inefficiencies that are created by the uncertainties regarding funding in government purchases, particularly in national defense and other capital purchases. Federal contractors cannot extend long-term contracts until the bills are passed. This forces them into numerous short-run extensions, which are substantially more expensive.</p>
<p>With so much at stake, expect a stormy and chaotic session with huge partisan differences – as well as discrepancies between the House and Senate – regarding spending levels and riders to appropriation bills. </p>
<p>Congress has just 11 working days to pass these bills, and that seems virtually impossible, especially in the current political climate.</p>
<p>So brace for numerous short-run continuing resolutions. But, ultimately, I expect at least a partial government shutdown. I even wouldn’t rule out a much longer shutdown of a couple of months that exceeds the record 35 days during the Trump administration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212520/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lawmakers have given themselves a virtually impossible task – and the stakes are high.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059582023-05-30T12:24:51Z2023-05-30T12:24:51ZCOVID-19 clawbacks, spending caps and a cut – what House Republicans got in return for pushing the US to the brink of default<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528884/original/file-20230529-2706-grqeae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=206%2C170%2C5784%2C3817&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has billed the deal as a victory for his party. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimitMcCarthy/140101daf62343f1bde85a3eb62b8849/photo?Query=debt%20ceiling&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1087&currentItemNo=44">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>House Republicans pushed the U.S. to the edge of a fiscal crisis because they <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/08/upshot/federal-budget-republicans.html">wanted deep cuts in government spending</a>. </p>
<p>So, based on the deal President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-signs-bipartisan-debt-ceiling-bill-to-avert-government-default/ar-AA1c5t9d/">signed into law on June 3, 2023</a>, how did they do? </p>
<p>In broad strokes, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/debt-ceiling-deal-food-aid-student-loans-3c284b01d95f8e193bca8d873386400e">deal suspends the debt limit</a> until January 2025, freezes nondefense discretionary funding at current levels and makes a few additional cuts and policy changes that were designed to appeal to enough Republicans and Democrats to get it through Congress. The deal also includes an incentive to motivate lawmakers to pass a budget on time in four months.</p>
<p>That provision and the 2025 expiration date should mean the U.S. will avoid any self-inflicted fiscal crises until at least after the next presidential election. </p>
<p>No one got everything they wanted. Biden didn’t get the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/20/dems-debt-limit-biden-00097925">clean debt ceiling increase</a> he had insisted on for months. Republicans didn’t get most of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/debt-limit-vote-republicans.html">what they sought in a bill</a> they passed in April – though they did get some of it. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymond-scheppach-19b98536/">professor of public policy</a> and former deputy director at the Congressional Budget Office, I believe the deal, which passed through both Houses of Congress just ahead of the June 5 deadline to avoid default, does hardly anything to address America’s long-term debt problem. To me, this outcome shows why a debt ceiling standoff is not the right way to solve it. </p>
<p>Let’s take a closer look at what I would consider the five main components of the new law to see what they’ll accomplish.</p>
<h2>1. Expanded work requirements for SNAP</h2>
<p>The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has been a <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/house-republicans-proposals-could-take-food-away-from-millions-of-low">Republican target for a while</a>. </p>
<p>Under current law, an <a href="https://otda.ny.gov/programs/snap/qanda.asp">individual must work</a> or be in training for 80 hours per month if they receive SNAP food benefits in three or more out of 36 months, is able-bodied, does not live with dependent children and is under 50 years old. This entitlement program is 100% funded by the federal government but is administered by states, which have the ability to waive the requirements in some low-unemployment areas.</p>
<p>The new deal expands the eligibility requirements to people up to age 54 and limits some of the state waiver authority. It excludes veterans and homeless people from the tougher work requirements and will expire in 2030. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-05/hr3746_Letter_McCarthy.pdf">Congressional Budget Office estimated the changes</a> would result in a net gain of 78,000 people getting benefits, according to a letter sent to Congress May 30. And while that provision was intended to reduce spending, because of the exclusions the CBO expects it to actually increase spending by US$1.8 billion over the next decade. </p>
<p>The bill also contains some additional work requirements for welfare recipients for the temporary assistance for needy families program, but the changes are relatively minor.</p>
<h2>2. Cap on nondefense discretionary spending</h2>
<p>The main way the agreement restricts federal spending is through the temporary cap on nondefense discretionary spending. </p>
<p>Spending on everything other than defense, entitlements like Social Security, and veterans benefits will stay flat in next year’s budget relative to the 2023 amount and increase 1% the following year, with no limits after that. </p>
<p>But ultimately, the caps apply to just a small share of total government spending – less than 13%. So not only is it a very minor reduction in spending, it involves a small fraction of the federal budget. </p>
<p>In their House bill, Republicans had sought a larger cut in discretionary spending.</p>
<p>Entitlement programs will be unaffected by the deal, while defense spending will grow by 3.3% next year, as <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2023/05/29/debt-ceiling-agreement-locks-in-bidens-proposed-defense-budget/">Biden requested in his budget</a>. </p>
<p>According to the Congressional Budget Office, the savings from the caps <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-05/hr3746_Letter_McCarthy.pdf">will amount to about $1.3 trillion</a> over the next decade, with another $188 billion in total interest savings.</p>
<p>But I – and the White House – believe the actual savings will be much more modest, likely under $200 billion. The White House <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/03/business/biden-debt-ceiling-deal.html">puts it at as little as $136 billion</a>. </p>
<p>That’s because enforcement mechanisms exist for only the first two years of the deal, and some accounting tricks make the total savings seem higher than they are. After that anything goes, and Congress <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/new-budget-deal-needed-to-avert-cuts-invest-in-national-priorities">has a record of restoring</a> funding lost to those types of caps. </p>
<p>One item that will see actual cuts is the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/07/what-the-irs-80-billion-funding-plan-means-for-taxpayers.html">$80 billion that previously had been allocated</a> to beef up IRS enforcement of tax cheats. The deal trims that by $1.4 billion immediately, while another $20 billion will be “repurposed” to shore up other discretionary items facing spending caps.</p>
<p>The Congressional Budget Office estimates the $1.4 billion cut will actually increase the deficit by $900 billion over a decade because it’ll result in reduced tax revenue due to less enforcement. The actual impact could be a lot higher, but the CBO didn’t do an estimate for the other $20 billion.</p>
<p>Republicans <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-whats-in-the-gop-bill-to-lift-the-u-s-debt-limit">had wanted to slash IRS enforcement by a lot more</a>, or $71 billion of the $80 billion originally approved.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black man in a suit speaks at a lectern in front of several other people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528935/original/file-20230529-22-cxfp48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries managed to round up more Democratic votes for the bill than Speaker McCarthy did, even though Republicans are in the mnajority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimit/a459d037959f46279efd48ffbde47463/photo?Query=debt%20ceiling&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1087&currentItemNo=49">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<h2>3. Streamlining energy leasing and permitting</h2>
<p>Both Republicans and Democrats have interest in expediting the environmental review process for new energy leases, but they have very different priorities. </p>
<p>Republicans are more interested in gas pipelines and fossil fuel projects, while Democrats are more interested in wind, solar and other alternative energy installations. The problem for both is that the approval of environmental and technical plans <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/drilling-permits-spiked-then-plunged-under-biden/">is very slow</a> and often involves all three levels of government. Also, at the federal level decisions often involve federal agencies with overlapping jurisdictions. </p>
<p>The new deal makes some minor changes to the environmental review process to make it go faster – though it’s less than what Republicans initially wanted. </p>
<h2>4. COVID-19 funding clawback</h2>
<p>White House and House Republican negotiators <a href="https://apnews.com/article/debt-ceiling-deal-food-aid-student-loans-3c284b01d95f8e193bca8d873386400e#:%7E:text=The%20agreement%20would%20rescind%20about,and%20broadband%20for%20rural%20areas.">agreed to claw back</a> $27 billion in unspent funds from six COVID-19 programs passed by Congress. </p>
<p>Some of these funds were allocated to various agencies, while others have already been distributed to states and even to local governments. The Congressional Budget Office expects the actual spending to go down by just $11 billion. </p>
<h2>5. No government shutdown</h2>
<p>Negotiators included a provision that should ensure there isn’t another fiscal crisis related to the 12 appropriations bills Congress must pass by October to keep the government funded into the next fiscal year. I think this is the most important component of the deal.</p>
<p>It automatically funds everything at 99% of the previous year’s level if Congress fails to pass the bills in time. Besides eliminating the possibility of a shutdown over the budget, as the U.S. <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-205178">has experienced in the past</a>, the 1% decrease in funding – on everything from education to defense – provides a strong incentive for Republicans and Democrats to negotiate a compromise that keeps their priorities fully funded.</p>
<h2>The bottom line</h2>
<p>As you can see, while the deal limits some spending in the short run, it does very little to tackle America’s long-term debt problem, which I believe urgently needs to be addressed. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN">U.S. national debt has exploded</a>, most recently as a result of trillions of dollars in spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic. At a <a href="https://www.usdebtclock.org/">little under $32 trillion</a>, it’s over 120% of gross domestic product, which <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106201">is considered unsustainably high</a> and <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA">is costing well over half a trillion dollars</a> in annual interest payments. At some point, investors may begin to see U.S. government bonds as a risky investment and stop buying, which would lead to higher borrowing costs and could bring down the entire U.S. financial system.</p>
<p>But using the debt ceiling as a negotiating tactic is unlikely to achieve the kinds of tough choices needed to meaningfully slow the growing mountain of U.S. debt. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go">About 60% of total government spending</a> goes to fund just a few items, such as Social Security, Medicare and national defense, <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-206462">that are very hard</a>, politically, to cut. And political realities make it nearly impossible to increase taxes. </p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.congress.gov/93/statute/STATUTE-88/STATUTE-88-Pg297.pdf">budgeting process known as reconciliation</a> was created specifically for this purpose because it allows Congress to cut any mandatory spending and entitlement program and increase taxes in one bill. It also can’t be filibustered in the Senate – it just needs a majority. </p>
<p>To truly address the debt problem, what is needed, in my view, is a balanced bipartisan proposal that includes cuts to all programs, as well as some significant tax increases. <a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">Political brinkmanship</a> won’t get America there.<br>
For all the debt ceiling drama and the risks of profound economic damage and global tensions that resulted from it, Republicans achieved only a two-year cap on a small fraction of the total budget. Reconciliation – and lawmakers willing to govern and compromise – is a far superior way to attain a comprehensive deficit-reduction plan. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to include deal’s passage and CBO estimates.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205958/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond Scheppach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Congress passed and the president signed the deal just days before the US was expected to default on its debt.Raymond Scheppach, Professor of Public Policy, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690032021-09-29T20:09:07Z2021-09-29T20:09:07ZWhat happened during the last government shutdown: 4 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423932/original/file-20210929-66205-8fwr30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C22%2C2986%2C1899&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Red sky at night, federal workers take fright? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-early-morning-sun-lights-up-the-sky-behind-the-u-s-news-photo/72581249?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. is (once again) staring down the barrel of a <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns">government shutdown</a>. </p>
<p>Barring progress on a spending bill to fund government agencies past Sept. 30, 2021 – and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/29/us/politics/debt-limit-spending-bill.html">Democrats are busying themselves</a> trying to get such a measure through Congress – federal workers could find themselves being sent home, or asked not to come in.</p>
<p>For how long is uncertain. Over the last few decades, the length of government shutdowns has crept up. The most recent one, which started on Dec. 22, 2018, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-happens-when-us-federal-government-shuts-down-2021-09-27/">lasted 35 days</a>, marking the longest shutdown to date.</p>
<p>During that period, The Conversation ran a series of articles that helped explain what was at stake, who suffers and why. Below are some insights gleaned by experts from previous government shutdowns that may give a clue as to what the U.S. can expect should the lights go off at midnight on Sept 30.</p>
<h2>Who is affected</h2>
<p>The federal workforce currently <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43590.pdf">comprises around 2.1 million civilian employees</a>. In the shutdown of 2018-2019, some 800,000 workers were affected by the government shutdown. Of those, around 380,000 were furloughed, meaning they could not work or get paid, while the rest worked without pay for the duration of the shutdown.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.uab.edu/cas/pspa/people/faculty/nevbahar-ertas">Nevbahar Ertas at the University of Alabama at Birmingham</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-federal-workers-affected-by-the-shutdown-5-questions-answered-109631">broke down those numbers</a> for The Conversation. She explained that the vast majority of federal employees work and live outside of Washington, D.C. The work they perform ranges from protecting waterways and ensuring food safety to investigating crime. </p>
<p>In fact, federal workers “are employed in over 300 different occupations,” Ertas notes. Salaries vary along with the roles, but, as of 2017, the average federal salary was US$69,344.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-the-federal-workers-affected-by-the-shutdown-5-questions-answered-109631">Who are the federal workers affected by the shutdown? 5 questions answered</a>
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<h2>What happens to consumer spending</h2>
<p>One short-term consequence of not paying so many people is that it provides a short-term brake on consumer spending, according to Scott Baker, <a href="https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/directory/baker_scott_r.aspx">a professor of finance at Northwestern University</a>.</p>
<p>Analyzing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-impact-of-a-government-shutdown-109182">impact of the 2013 government shutdown</a> – which saw some federal workers furloughed for more than two weeks – Baker found that it led to an immediate 10% decline in average spending for households in which at least one member worked for an affected federal agency. For households with a member furloughed in the shutdown, the drop in consumer spending almost doubled.</p>
<p>This is a problem not just for federal employees and their families. As Baker explains, it has a ripple effect on local businesses. One area of particular concerns is restaurants. When people tighten their purse strings, eating out is one of the first things to go. Given the challenging times the restaurant trade has had during the pandemic, any additional disruption would come as a further blow. </p>
<p>“In addition, the longer the shutdown lasts, the worse its impact,” Baker notes.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-economic-impact-of-a-government-shutdown-109182">What's the economic impact of a government shutdown?</a>
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<h2>The impact on health and safety</h2>
<p>Shutdowns don’t affect only the financial well-being of the U.S. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.american.edu/spa/faculty/mw4303a.cfm">Morten Wendelbo at American University School of Public Affairs</a> writes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shutdown-will-harm-the-health-and-safety-of-americans-even-after-its-long-over-109843">disruption to business-as-usual can harm</a> the government’s ability to provide health services and protect the public from disasters.</p>
<p>This manifested in a number of ways during the 2018-19 shutdown. Disaster preparedness was one of the areas affected. The Federal Emergency Management Agency was forced to cease working on a several projects, and even those that continued were impacted by staff shortages as a result of federal furloughs. Among those temporarily sent home in that shutdown were hurricane modelers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Similarly, government employees tasked with managing forests prone to fires were affected by the shutdown. </p>
<p>“First responders and emergency experts use the off season to prepare for the next disaster season, but reports show that the prolonged shutdown is preventing some of this preparation, such as training for essential staff and forecasters,” Wendelbo explains.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shutdown-will-harm-the-health-and-safety-of-americans-even-after-its-long-over-109843">The shutdown will harm the health and safety of Americans, even after it's long over</a>
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<h2>Science suffers</h2>
<p>“When the U.S. government shuts down, much of the science that it supports is not spared,” writes <a href="https://www.chemistry.msu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-members/angela-k-wilson/">Angela Wilson of Michigan State University</a>. </p>
<p>She should know. As the head of the National Science Foundation’s Division of Chemistry, Wilson endured two shutdowns: “The 1,800 NSF staff would be sent home, without access to email and without even the option to work voluntarily, until eventually an end to the shutdown was negotiated.”</p>
<p>And it wasn’t just her agency. Scientists at the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Parks Service, the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey, among others, are also typically furloughed in government shutdowns. Such enforced periods out of work can be particularly disruptive for scientists who rely on critical windows for their work. </p>
<p>“If something happens only once a year and the moment is now – such as the pollination window for some drought-resistant plants – a researcher will miss out and must wait another year,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/science-gets-shut-down-right-along-with-the-federal-government-109690">Wilson explains</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-gets-shut-down-right-along-with-the-federal-government-109690">Science gets shut down right along with the federal government</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Congress is working on a spending bill to avert another government shutdown. Scholars explain what’s in store if they fail.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1288942019-12-13T21:35:14Z2019-12-13T21:35:14ZWhy Congress would keep working during a government shutdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306886/original/file-20191213-85376-1qwtds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4200%2C2803&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Congress holds the power to propose and approve the federal budget.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/State-of-the-Union-Address/311bc220494741c68f6bfca9e57ea2a7/142/0">Patsy Lynch/ MediaPunch /IPX</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unless Congress passes <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/12/lawmakers-reach-a-bipartisan-deal-in-principle-to-fund-the-government-084008">new spending legislation</a> by December 20, at least some federal agencies may need to <a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/">cease operations and shut down</a>, just as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-government-shutdown-affects-the-economy-109688">several agencies did</a> for a month around this time last year. </p>
<p>But if <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/12/politics/deal-in-principle-on-2020-spending-bills-reached/index.html">current budget negotiations to avoid a shutdown</a> don’t pan out, at least one part of the government will keep running: Congress itself.</p>
<p>Depending on the exact terms of what is, and isn’t, funded during a shutdown, some congressional staff may need to stay home, and those staffers who keep working <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-workers-begin-to-feel-pain-of-shutdown-as-800-000-lose-their-paychecks-109710">might not get paid</a> until the shutdown ends. </p>
<p>Yet senators and representatives could keep working, handling impeachment and other duties – including budget deliberations to end the shutdown.</p>
<h2>Congress controls spending</h2>
<p>Under the Constitution, Congress holds what is called the “<a href="https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Power-of-the-Purse/">power of the purse</a>.” That means the government can spend money only if a law passed by Congress allows the spending. </p>
<p>An important law called the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/legal/appropriations-law-decisions/resources">Antideficiency Act</a> reinforces this congressional power by barring government employees from spending or incurring obligations to spend federal money without a law providing the necessary funds. Government employees who break this law could be <a href="https://www.gao.gov/legal/appropriations-law-decisions/resources">disciplined, fired or even fined or imprisoned</a>.</p>
<p>Since the nation’s founding, Congress has generally passed laws appropriating funds for federal agencies that last only a year at a time. Congress adopted this practice <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/check-and-approve-government-spending-and-taxation/the-budget-and-parliament/">from the British Parliament</a>, which used time-limited spending bills to ensure that the king couldn’t go to war or undertake certain other activities without parliamentary support. </p>
<p>Today, annual spending laws similarly ensure that Congress can check and balance the power of the president and the executive branch. But this system creates a risk: If both houses of Congress and the president can’t agree on how much money the government should spend, and on what, existing funding might run out before new money is made available.</p>
<p>When that happens, federal agencies and programs that run out of money generally have to stop operating. The Antideficiency Act prevents them from continuing many of their functions while waiting for a new budget. (There are some exceptions, including one that allows certain activities related to <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/1342">protecting public safety and national security</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306887/original/file-20191213-85404-ya4kfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even in a shutdown, some Customs and Border Protection officers would almost certainly continue to work, under exemptions allowing some law enforcement and national security workers to stay on the job.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cbpphotos/8468743022">U.S. Customs and Border Protection/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Congress’ own expenses</h2>
<p>What about Congress, though? </p>
<p>Congress and the president could avoid any disruption of Congress’ own operations by passing a <a href="https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/appropriations-committee-releases-fiscal-year-2020-legislative-branch-funding">law providing funds for the legislative branch</a>, even if they can’t agree on funding for the rest of the government. Last year, a law funding the legislative branch passed before the shutdown, so Congress and its staff were unaffected.</p>
<p>Even if the law funding Congress expired, however, the legislative branch could keep working. Salaries for representatives and senators don’t depend on annual appropriations. Instead, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/97th-congress/house-joint-resolution/325">a 1981 law</a> established a permanent appropriation from which their salaries are paid, even if other federal spending has not been approved.</p>
<p>Even if that law were repealed, the representatives and senators themselves would still get paid for their work, though perhaps not until after the shutdown. Article I of the Constitution guarantees that “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-6-">the Senators and Representatives shall receive a Compensation for their Services, to be ascertained by Law, and paid out of the Treasury of the United States</a>.” The <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxvii">27th Amendment</a> further prevents any law from “varying” representatives’ and senators’ compensation until after an intervening House election. Though aimed principally at preventing representatives and senators from giving themselves a raise, the amendment could also prevent them from giving themselves a pay cut.</p>
<h2>A limit to financial power</h2>
<p>Whatever happens with congressional salaries, Congress’ work could continue. </p>
<p>Although Congress may limit many government activities by denying funding for them, lack of funding cannot prevent activities allowed by the Constitution that don’t require money in the first place.</p>
<p>As I explained in a recent research paper, Congress <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2983453">cannot prevent presidential pardons</a>, vetoes or appointments by denying funding for them, because presidents don’t need any resources beyond their own salary to carry out these functions.</p>
<p>Similarly, a funding lapse should not prevent representatives and senators from discharging constitutional functions that they can carry out personally, such as considering and voting on legislation. Any other view would yield the absurd result that a shutdown could prevent Congress from voting on legislation to end the shutdown.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306892/original/file-20191213-85371-3xh4vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a shutdown, Congress would keep operating, but perhaps with fewer staff.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Capitol_Snow_2018_(32026277508).jpg">Architect of the Capitol/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about staff?</h2>
<p>The elected officials in Congress may therefore continue to vote on legislation, debate bills and consider impeachment, among other things, even if other components of the government shut down. </p>
<p>But the question whether they can get help from their staff is more complicated. Staff salaries and other support expenses are subject to annual appropriations – not permanent ones like the one funding the representatives’ and senators’ own salaries.</p>
<p>The Government Accountability Office – an arm of Congress – has concluded, however, that legislative aides may keep working if their tasks are “<a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/170/169212.pdf">necessary to assist the Congress</a> in the performance of its constitutional duties.” </p>
<p>Along the same lines, the Department of Justice has ruled that executive branch employees may continue to perform work that is “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/file/22536/download">necessarily incident to presidential initiatives</a> undertaken within [the president’s] constitutional powers.”</p>
<p>The reasoning in these opinions is not airtight. The Constitution does not require the president, senators or representatives to have any staff at all – let alone some minimum “necessary” number. Nevertheless, the practice of allowing continued staff assistance for constitutional functions is sufficiently well established at this point that the Antideficiency Act should probably be understood to allow it.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that Congress itself can’t be shut down. Whatever happens in the coming weeks, Congress may proceed with impeaching the president and considering new legislation – including, Americans might hope, bills to end any government shutdown. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Price is a registered Democrat and has contributed to and volunteered for the Democratic Party and some Democratic candidates. He worked for Representative Rush Holt in 1999-2000 and the U.S. Department of Justice from 2009-2012, but the views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. government or any agency or official.</span></em></p>Even if other parts of the federal government shut down, Congress could – and would have to – keep working. A legal scholar explains why and how that is possible.Zachary Price, Associate Professor of Law, University of California College of the Law, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1110492019-02-11T18:37:37Z2019-02-11T18:37:37ZHow to manufacture a crisis: Deconstructing Donald Trump’s immigration rhetoric<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258109/original/file-20190210-174880-1fgx5p5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C799%2C519&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump prepares to give the 2018 US State of the Union address.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_State_of_the_Union_2018.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most Trumpian passages of this year’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/2/5/18212533/president-trump-state-of-the-union-address-live-transcript">State of the Union address</a> is the section on immigration. President Trump is not the first president to talk about border security, illegal crossing, and immigration reform in a State of the Union speech. In fact, every US president <a href="https://eu.caller.com/story/news/2019/02/04/state-union-what-presidents-said-immigration/2747042002/">since Bill Clinton in the mid-1990s</a> has. He is, however, the only president to make it an “urgent national crisis” and spend so much time on “criminal illegal aliens.” Here is a quick deconstruction of President Trump’s rhetorical strategy for getting the wall built.</p>
<h2>Conflate illegal entry and violent crime</h2>
<p>There is nothing more persuasive that seemingly scary numbers to convince an audience that the situation is objectively critical.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“ICE officers made 266,000 arrests of criminal aliens, including those charged or convicted of nearly 100,000 assaults. 30,000 sex crimes and 4,000 killings or murders.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump used the exact same numbers in his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/politics/trump-speech-transcript.html">January 8 speech on immigration</a> from the Oval Office and in his <a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1084649448003784704">January 12 tweet</a>. As the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/live-updates/trump-white-house/live-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-trumps-2019-state-of-the-union-address/read-the-fact-check-from-trumps-oval-office-address-on-immigration/"><em>Washington Post</em> noted</a>, the problem is that these are fuzzy and misleading numbers. They include, for instance, “serious and nonviolent offenses” and the totals cover “all types of offenses, including illegal entry or reentry.” Even if you just look at the core of the argument (that illegal aliens commit more crimes), it is contradicted by independent academic studies – for example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1745-9125.12175">here</a>, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4450776-Light-Et-Al-AJPH-Published.html">here</a> and <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4450775-CATO-Illegal-Immigration-and-Crime-in-Texas.html">here</a> – that show that illegal immigration does not increase the prevalence of violent crime or drugs and that undocumented immigrants are actually <em>less</em> likely to break the law than legal US residents.</p>
<p>Moreover, Donald Trump’s allegation that the border city of El Paso, Texas, had “one of the highest rates of violent crime” prior to the construction of the wall has been strongly rebutted (<a href="https://eu.elpasotimes.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/05/fact-check-state-union-trump-el-paso-crime-rate-fence/2784362002/">here</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/2/5/18213141/state-of-the-union-2019-fact-check-border-crime">here</a>). Similarly, his claim that “the wall in San Diego almost completely ended illegal crossing” is <a href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article225589085.html">incomplete at best</a>.</p>
<h2>Frame undocumented immigrants as “illegal aliens”</h2>
<p>“Framing” is a <a href="https://masscommtheory.com/theory-overviews/framing-theory/">communication technique</a> that consists of using specific language to portray a topic negatively or positively by relying on biased mental representations. For instance, by calling undocumented immigrants “criminal illegal aliens”, the US president explicitly implies that even individuals who have not yet crossed the US-Mexico border (such as those in the “caravan” of immigrants travelling to the US from Central America) have already broken the law. Excluded is the possibility that some are refugees and may request asylum, in which case, they are not technically immigrants, much less illegal, at least until their claims are possibly denied. In fact, it is the Trump administration’s new policy of forcing asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their cases are pending in the United States that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/02/trump-immigration-policy-mexico-border-illegal-amnesty-international">may very well be illegal</a>.</p>
<p>The expression “illegal aliens” is a rarety but not a novelty in a State of the Union address – it was used by <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?62882-1/president-bill-clintons-1995-state-union-address&start=3772">Bill Clinton in 1995</a>, for example. But yet it is not a neutral term: It presents immigrants through the frame of crime. As explained by the <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/use-euphemisms-political-debate">Cato Institute</a>, a libertarian think tank, using the term “illegal aliens” rather than “undocumented immigrants” is more likely to sway a more conservative person against immigration because of “their greater support for order and structure, which is offended by illegality.”</p>
<h2>Make the illegal alien a savage enemy</h2>
<p>What is a novelty in this State of the Union address and a trademark of Trump’s rhetoric is the portrayal of immigrants as a central enemy. Contrary to all his modern predecessors, the president uses a threatening Other that is both inside and outside the border. Within the nation, this immediate danger is the “savage gang MS-13 [which] now operates in at least 20 different American states”. The reality is that with fewer than <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/26/16955936/ms-13-trump-immigrants-crime">10,000 members</a>, MS-13 makes up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/27/opinion/trump-ms13-immigration.html">less than 1% of the gang members in the United States</a>. Clearly, no matter how cruel they are, they hardly constitute a national threat.</p>
<p>Another threat highlighted by Trump are the “ruthless coyotes, cartels, drug dealers”, the “sadistic human and sex traffickers” and the “smugglers who use migrant children as human pawns to exploit our laws and gain access to our country.” In the speech, such imaginatively portrayed criminals are used to symbolise chaos and stoke fear:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The lawless state of our southern border is a threat to the safety, security and financial well-being of all America.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is at stake is therefore law, order and ultimately civilisation itself. It is the rationale for words of war: ordering “another 3,750 <em>troops</em> to our southern border to prepare for this tremendous <em>onslaught</em>” and calling Americans “to <em>defend</em> our very dangerous southern border out of love and devotion to our fellow citizens and our country”. This war is not just metaphorical. It has casualties: the “countless Americans […] murdered by criminal illegal aliens” and the “tens of thousands of innocent Americans killed by lethal drugs that cross our border and flood into our cities.”</p>
<p>This framing of immigrant as “savage Others” is reminiscent of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-trumps-america-immigrants-are-modern-day-savage-indians-99809">frontier rhetoric employed against native Americans</a> in the 19th century.</p>
<h2>Add lewd sexual stories</h2>
<p>This savage is all the more barbaric that he is also a sexual predator:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“One in three [immigrant] women is sexually assaulted […] thousands of young girls and women [are] smuggled into the United States [to be sold] into prostitution and modern-day slavery.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Beyond the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2019/jan/25/donald-trump/trump-said-1-3-migrant-women-sexually-assaulted-jo/">unreliability of these statistics</a>, the topic of sex crime has been a recurrent motif in Donald Trump’s remarks and tweets about immigrants. The speech that <a href="http://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/">launched his campaign on June 16, 2015</a>, made the headlines because he accused Mexico of sending rapists to the United States. He later made a similar comment in reference to the <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2018/04/donald-trump-immigrant-rape-caravan-comment.html">“caravan” of immigrants</a>. Earlier this year, Trump even gave some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/17/trumps-stories-taped-up-women-smuggled-into-us-are-divorced-reality-experts-say/">graphic details</a> of “women tied up, bound, with duct tape put around their faces, around their mouths, in many cases they can’t even breathe.”</p>
<figure>
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</figure>
<p>Despite a complete <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/27/18198729/women-duct-tape-trump-truck-border">lack of evidence</a>, Trump reportedly has repeated this account 10 times.
This type of narrative does not need to be true to serve its political purpose, it just needs to <em>feel</em> true. Such stories are more likely to trigger a reaction in a more conservative audience, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.1300293?journalCode=rers20">sexuality and gender</a> being features of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/014198798330007">language of nationalism</a>. They reflect a philosophy in which <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/lisa/9861">power is virtue</a> and control is paramount. </p>
<h2>The nation-as-a-body metaphor</h2>
<p>Metaphorical and literal stories of rape have been used by presidents to provide a focal point for the public to direct their anger at America’s enemies. Saddam Hussein had, for instance, <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/message-allied-nations-the-persian-gulf-crisis">“raped Kuwait”</a> and built <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-the-nation-iraq">“rape rooms”</a>. Such narratives exploit the nation-as-a-person metaphor. In Trump’s narrative, a parallel can be drawn between rape and the invasion of a nation by illegal aliens. In his <a href="https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-speech-oval-office-immigration-january-8-2019">immigration speech on January 8</a>, the president clearly talked about “those who have <em>violated</em> our borders.” </p>
<p>This bodily metaphor is likely to activate particular strong feelings in a more conservative or nationalist audience that tends to have a more gendered world view focused on power and strength. As <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-rape-metaphor-says-more-about-him-than_us_57743fb5e4b0ee1c313d8e7e">Soraya Chemaly writes</a> in the <em>Huffington Post</em>, for them:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Rape is sex and sex is war; rapists are winners, the raped are losers. Shame, according to Trump’s use, is reserved for the raped, not the rapist.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both actions are forced penetration of the container of a body: the intimate body (self) or the social body (the nation).</p>
<p>The fear of invasion is further illustrated by the story of Trump’s guest Deborah Bissel, whose “parents were burglarised and shot to death in their Reno, Nevada, home by an illegal alien”. It is no coincidence that the president used the dramatic story of a home invasion to parallel the invasion of dangerous aliens into the country.</p>
<p>The immediacy of the threat is reinforced by the idea that the nation is “rapidly getting filled with liquid, which represents immigrants, and with them, illegal substances”. The drugs that are “flood[ing] into our cities” or the MS-13 gang members “streaming right back in,” in Trump’s words, means that the arrival of immigrants is presented in terms of the entrance of excessive amounts of liquid into a container. Hence the peril of “open borders,” “wide-open areas” or “loopholes”, which warrants the construction of a flood wall. Hence his conclusion that “walls work and walls save lives”.</p>
<h2>Villains, victims and heroes</h2>
<p>Like any good narrative, this story has clear types: mostly villains and victims (American citizens as well as the “300 women and girls rescued from the horror of this terrible situation”). Now it just needs heroes. They are “our brave ICE officers” and the"brave men and women of law enforcement,“ But ultimately, Donald Trump portrays himself as the true hero here, both the protector of other heroes and the builder of walls whose goal is to protect the body-nation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>”<strong>I</strong> pledge to you tonight that <strong>I</strong> will never abolish our heroes from ICE. […] The proper wall never got built. <strong>I</strong>‘ll get it built.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Trump is not the first US president to talk about border security, but he is the only one to make it an “urgent national crisis”. Here is a handy deconstruction of President Trump’s rhetorical strategy.Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Assistant lecturer, Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris LumièresLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104602019-01-25T11:52:47Z2019-01-25T11:52:47ZAre federal workers being forced into involuntary servitude?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255504/original/file-20190124-196250-15e58yu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A TSA employee visits a food pantry.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown-Maryland/aa757886d81a404ea6ecd543f7f886d1/2/0">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many federal employees are being ordered by the federal government to work without pay until a spending bill is enacted. </p>
<p>Some workers object, arguing that they are being pressured to show up for work with no clear prospect of a payday. Some individuals have sued <a href="http://www.katorparks.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Shutdown_Labor_Complaint.pdf">claiming that</a> this violates the 13th Amendment, which abolished involuntary servitude.</p>
<p>Will they win? </p>
<p>For now, the answer is likely no. In my law review article, “<a href="https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1387&context=bjell">Compulsory Labor in a National Emergency</a>,” I found that legal protections against forced labor often fail to help workers. </p>
<h2>Why most 13th Amendment lawsuits fail</h2>
<p>Every year, a small number of workers prevail in involuntary servitude cases. </p>
<p>The legal standard for arguing that someone is working against their will is evidence of physical or legal coercion. The <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/487/931/">Supreme Court articulated the standard in 1988</a> in a case about two mentally disabled men working on a farm. </p>
<p>The best way to explain the standard is with an example. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/illinois/ilndce/1:2014cv05532/298456/291/">Mouloki v. Epee</a>, a nanny named Christine Mouloki sued the husband and wife who employed her for wages and damages. She alleged that the family refused to let her leave their suburban home near Chicago. </p>
<p>The court concluded that a “scheme, plan, or pattern intended to convince a plaintiff (person) that serious harm or physical restraint would result if she did not continue to perform the labor and services” constitutes involuntary servitude. At trial, the nanny won her case.</p>
<p>But plenty of involuntary lawsuits fail. The most common are from high school students whose school districts require them to perform community service as a condition to graduate. </p>
<p>In one such case, students were required to provide 50 hours of community service during their four years in school. <a href="https://casetext.com/case/herndon-v-chapel-hill-carrboro-city-board">Parents sued</a>, alleging a violation of the 13th Amendment. </p>
<p>The court rejected the 13th Amendment claim, stating: “Graduation from a public high school is an important opportunity, but the threat of not graduating does not rise to the level of ‘physical or legal coercion.’”</p>
<h2>Pressure, not coercion</h2>
<p>Federal employees working without pay fall in the gray area between the high school and nanny scenario. </p>
<p>So far, their situation does not present the coercion in the nanny’s home confinement case. The main impediment for the federal employees’ case is that lack of coercion, not lack of pay for their labor. In a preliminary ruling, workers lost a motion for an injunction but they are scheduled to make a similar motion soon – and as time passes, their case improves. </p>
<p>For now, however, these employees can call in sick, take vacation time or simply not answer the phone or emails from a supervisor. A court would likely view an order to work without being paid as unfair, or a violation of wage laws, but not coercion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael H. LeRoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In these cases, what matters is how much pressure an employer puts on their employee to do the work.Michael H. LeRoy, Professor of Labor and Employment Relations, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104152019-01-25T11:52:12Z2019-01-25T11:52:12ZUniversity scientists feel the pain of the government shutdown, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255472/original/file-20190124-196235-lnw4qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal and university employees normally work side by side on many big science projects.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ITAE</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I am very fortunate. My work involves research on topics of interest and importance (OK maybe I’m biased) related to the climate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-and-what-can-it-tell-us-about-our-future-climate-40140">oceanography of the North Pacific</a>, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest.</p>
<p>My primary office is at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, in Seattle, Washington, in a lovely setting on the shore of Lake Washington. My coworkers are an interesting bunch of folks doing a variety of work ranging from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14577">chemical oceanography of deep-sea volcanoes</a> to the causes and effects of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0323.1">declining sea ice in the Arctic</a>. This research involves the design and fabrication of innovative instrumentation, with most of this activity carried out in the laboratories and test benches on site.</p>
<p>It’s usually a bustling place. But these days, it’s been distressingly quiet.</p>
<p>The reason, of course, is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/us-government-shutdown-2018-48781">partial shutdown of the federal government</a>, which has resulted in the furlough of “non-essential” employees of NOAA, a branch of the Department of Commerce.</p>
<p>I’m actually an employee of the University of Washington, so in principle, I should not be affected by the shutdown. But that’s far from the case, and my situation is by no means isolated.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255460/original/file-20190124-196238-1frjwan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A UW research scientist works with two NOAA scientists on an instrument before heading out on a cruise to Mexico’s northern coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2016/05/10/uw-part-of-noaa-led-cruise-to-study-west-coast-ocean-acidification/">Simone Alin/NOAA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) at UW has about 115 employees – and 89 of them have a federal facility as their primary place of work. The JISAO contingent at the NOAA lab actually outnumbers the federal employees. And JISAO is just one of <a href="https://ci.noaa.gov">16 cooperative institutes at universities</a> in the U.S. through which academic and NOAA scientists collaborate.</p>
<p>As a principal investigator whose paycheck comes from the university, I’ve been more hampered than crippled by the shutdown. There remains a seemingly infinite amount of work that can be done: papers to read, current projects needing attention, proposals to prepare. Much of this kind of work can be done away from the office. And I must admit that I kind of enjoyed the first few days; if nothing else the phone hardly rings at the temporary office I’m using.</p>
<p>But now I am getting really peeved. I was counting on being able to make headway on a study of past cold-air outbreaks in the Pacific Northwest, and really need to use a web application maintained by NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory. Some other research in my pipeline requires climate model data sets hosted by NOAA, but again, no dice.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255470/original/file-20190124-196218-q5dfx7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot of what greets visitors to many NOAA websites during the shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://government-shutdown.noaa.gov">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One might suppose that a slowing of the research being conducted in my field is no big deal. But there are ramifications. </p>
<p>Take weather forecasting. Both day-to-day forecasts and seasonal projections rely on complex computer models. These models need care and feeding; there is continual development and improvement carried out by a cadre of federal and nonfederal (academic and contractor) types. All of this is basically on hold. To be sure, forecasts are still being produced by National Weather Service personnel temporarily working for free, but it is a setback. And this kind of pause is happening all over the country, in a variety of disciplines, at research centers that collaborate with federal agencies – when the government isn’t shut down.</p>
<p>The work not being done will have some lasting effects. For example, a research cruise in the Atlantic Ocean scheduled to begin in about a month was going to include instrumentation for measuring various chemical properties including pH. Now it looks like equipment will not be able to be prepped and shipped in time. This will constitute a serious gap in the record.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255471/original/file-20190124-196215-1y1ej5o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=237&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ongoing monitoring – like this time series of temperatures on the Bering Sea shelf – is necessary to track accurately how environmental conditions are changing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phyllis Stabeno/NOAA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It bears emphasizing that there are a variety of roles filled by JISAO personnel at NOAA, and the extent to which these individuals can roll with the punches associated with the shutdown also varies. </p>
<p>Support scientists employed by the university are in a particularly tough spot. These are the people who carry out the essential tasks of preparing and calibrating equipment, going to sea on research cruises – a duty generally less glamorous than the term suggests – analyzing samples in the lab, and processing and posting the precious data that we go to so much trouble to collect. There is not much glory here, but these folks are committed to what they are doing and take justifiable pride in their work.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255477/original/file-20190124-196244-3gncys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workstations at NOAA/PMEL are now empty, even though many of the people who staff them are actually employed by the university.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jed Thompson/JISAO</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the shutdown has dragged on, and PMEL and other federal facilities remain closed, the options for these individuals have become increasingly limited. Those whose work directly involves equipment and instrumentation are especially in a bind. Many have been able to be productive by updating manuals or online training, but are running out of things to do. Those tasked with data processing and management often use specialized software on their desktop computers – this kind of work can’t be done on one’s laptop at the local Starbucks.</p>
<p>JISAO and federal employees work alongside one another, and the distinctions are usually blurred. In many cases, these folks have similar duties and tenures, and it’s not much more than a matter of chance whether one is a federal or nonfederal employee.</p>
<p>But now that distinction is important, because different rules are in play for the federal and nonfederal employees. Federal employees on furlough will be receiving back pay. This does not apply to JISAO employees, and for that matter, all their counterparts across the country associated with the different agencies being directly affected by the impasse.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255474/original/file-20190124-196250-mil0hs.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At a certain point during the shutdown, people run out of work to do.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Washington</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If JISAO employees cannot carry out meaningful work benefiting the grant projects they’re working under, they must either find a project to which they can contribute (which is difficult to say the least), take vacation time, or worst of all in most cases, go on leave without pay.</p>
<p>Some individuals have already been forced to use leave or go without pay, with poor prospects for reimbursement, and I fear that their ranks will swell. JISAO is doing what it can on behalf of its employees, as are the other NOAA cooperative institutes, especially toward minimizing the “nuclear option” of forced leave without pay. Given the requirements accompanying university employees working on federal grants, that is proving to be no cinch.</p>
<p>Here’s a fervent plea for an agreement to be reached somehow so that we can get back to our regular work. I am chomping at the bit, and I expect that I speak for a lot of people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Bond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lots of academic scientists collaborate with federal employees and resources on their research projects. And at the moment they can’t. A climatologist explains the bind they’re in.Nicholas Bond, Washington State Climatologist and Associate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1101382019-01-23T11:48:26Z2019-01-23T11:48:26ZHow to show gratitude to TSA workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255042/original/file-20190122-100285-1ex84iv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Food donated for TSA workers who continue to work without pay.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown-Pennsylvania/d6c577ce3b684c0e8a9fb031ca79c2a2/10/0">AP Photo/Keith Srakocic</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>TSA workers are usually among the least-liked government employees. But these days many travelers passing through airports are taking a moment to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/685656065/some-travelers-expressing-gratitude-for-tsa-workers-amid-shutdown">express their gratitude</a> to the furloughed workers <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/trump-s-selective-recalls-curb-unpopular-disruptions-tests-law">putting in their hours without pay</a> as the partial government shutdown continues. </p>
<p>In my research as a scholar of communication, as I outline in my book, <a href="http://www.sunypress.edu/p-6539-the-art-of-gratitude.aspx">“The Art of Gratitude</a>.” I can tell you that gratitude matters. The words we use to describe our emotions are important, as they influence how we and others feel. </p>
<p>Here are my three rules for how to practice gratitude.</p>
<h2>1. Practice gratitude every day</h2>
<p>Two recent books – historian <a href="https://dianabutlerbass.com/about/">Diana Butler Bass’</a> <a href="https://dianabutlerbass.com/books/grateful-the-transformative-power-of-giving-thanks/">“Grateful: The Transformative Power of Giving Thanks”</a> and journalist <a href="https://ajjacobs.com/">A.J. Jacobs’</a> <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Thanks-A-Thousand/A-J-Jacobs/TED-Books/9781501119927">“Thanks A Thousand: A Gratitude Journey”</a> – share details of the personal, social and health benefits of gratitude. </p>
<p>These books recount how gratitude can <a href="https://news.heart.org/study-gratitude-is-a-healthy-attitude/">lower blood pressure</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092656607001286">reduce anxiety</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19073292">improve sleep</a>, and <a href="https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/is_gratitude_good_for_your_health">make people feel happier and more at home in the world</a>. In general, research shows that the practice of gratitude <a href="https://positivepsychologyprogram.com/benefits-gratitude-research-questions/">reduces suffering and promotes individual well-being</a>. </p>
<p>So the practice of gratitude each day is important – but it also requires the right philosophy.</p>
<h2>2. Avoid the language of debt</h2>
<p>Many of us regularly say “I owe you one,” “I owe you a debt of gratitude,” or some other phrase that means basically the same thing. </p>
<p>In doing so, gratitude becomes a kind of a debt incurred during daily life. </p>
<p>The field of <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-good-life/200805/what-is-positive-psychology-and-what-is-it-not">positive psychology</a> studies what makes life most worth living. According to the positive psychologist <a href="http://psychology.ucdavis.edu/people/raemmons">Robert Emmons</a>, to be grateful “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=2OyzetozsTsC&printsec=frontcover&dq=robert+emmons+Thanks!&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwin747v_IHgAhWCjFkKHUuoB_sQ6AEIJTAA#v=onepage&q&f=false">is to feel indebted</a>.” Paraphrasing Emmons, when someone does me a favor or gives me a gift, the emotion of gratitude encourages me to think of it as a debt that I need to repay.</p>
<p>The trouble with the language of debt is that it transforms how we talk about gratitude into a transaction. Gratitude becomes a daily practice of counting and keeping score. People then get good at seeing their <a href="http://www.sunypress.edu/p-6539-the-art-of-gratitude.aspx">lives as a series of debts</a> that must be repaid. But life is not a debt or a series of debts. </p>
<p>According to Aristotle in his “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=-fhkBAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=aristotle+nicomachean+ethics&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwit0MiTiYLgAhUh2FkKHW6BBgY4ChDoATAFegQIARAd#v=onepage&q=aristotle%20nicomachean%20ethics&f=false">Nicomachean Ethics</a>,” it is natural for people to despise feeling indebted to others. And so, he contends, it is also natural for people to turn away from relationships with others if those relationships serve to create additional debts. </p>
<h2>3. Recognize interconnectedness</h2>
<p>In addition to being a scholar, I am a <a href="http://www.statecollegeyogalab.com/teachers/">yoga teacher</a>. My academic research is influenced profoundly by yoga philosophy. Yoga is a practice that aims to reduce suffering. According to the yoga scholar <a href="https://www.shambhala.com/yoga-for-a-world-out-of-balance-1757.html">Michael Stone</a>, “the term ‘yoga’ connotes the basic unity and interconnectedness of all of life.” </p>
<p>In America, it is common to speak of self-reliance. But no person succeeds alone. Everyone is supported. The yogic practice of gratitude, or “santosha,” encourages practitioners to <a href="http://www.sunypress.edu/p-6539-the-art-of-gratitude.aspx">acknowledge and give thanks</a> for the many forms of support that allow them to live their lives. </p>
<p>To breathe is to take in the same air that others breathe; to stand is to stand on the same earth that others stand on. Without the air, or the earth, shared by all, we wouldn’t be here. The practice of yogic gratitude encourages people to recognize that they are part of the world, not separate from it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255045/original/file-20190122-100273-kr64m9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A food donation point at Orlando International Airport to help workers who are not getting paid during shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown-TSA-Workers/a098bd9b8e3d40748ce13b945e2383ec/38/0">AP Photo/John Raoux</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It also teaches people to recognize that to reduce their suffering they must also work to reduce the suffering of those around them. Often people don’t see it this way, but there is no injustice that affects someone else that does not also in some way affect each one of us too. </p>
<h2>Fighting injustice</h2>
<p>Ultimately, it is heart-warming to see Americans giving thanks, <a href="https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/How-to-Help-Federal-Furloughed-Workers-Impacted-by-the-Partial-Government-Shutdown-Donate-Volunteer-504540111.html">collecting donations</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/WCKitchen/status/1085941565783265280">providing food</a> to government workers affected by the shutdown. </p>
<p>But, true gratitude is a practice of recognizing our interconnectedness – that we are all in this together. If people practice the three rules of gratitude, perhaps they can also recognize the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/opinion/its-time-for-tsa-workers-to-strike.html">unfairness</a> of asking people to work without pay and pledge to fight this injustice together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy David Engels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As people say thanks to those who are turning up for work without being paid, an expert explains what true gratitude really means.Jeremy David Engels, Sherwin Early Career Professor in the Rock Ethics Institute, and Associate Professor of Communication Arts and Sciences, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1100542019-01-22T10:34:18Z2019-01-22T10:34:18ZUS government shutdown: Trump’s insecurity is the biggest obstacle to a solution<p>President Donald Trump is excessively sure of his own talents. Yet in the <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/scheduling/423281-this-week-shutdown-showdown-looms-over-new-congress">“shutdown showdown”</a> over funding for a US-Mexico border wall, it appears to be his insecurity that’s preventing the reopening of the federal government.</p>
<p>Trump’s <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/19/read-president-trumps-speech-his-new-offer-reopen-government/2628077002/">remarks</a> on January 19 – which proposed granting temporary “legislative relief” for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/04/donald-trump-what-is-daca-dreamers">“Dreamers”</a> (undocumented immigrants who arrived in America as minors) as part of a compromise with Congressional Democrats – didn’t give an inch on his plans for a border wall. The president remains worried that turning his back on the project would signal that he’s abandoning his conservative base. </p>
<p>Yet this much is clear: Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41028733">base is with him</a> – regardless of what he does. Indeed, to break the shutdown impasse, evidence suggests he could ditch the wall at any time without further political fallout. </p>
<h2>Standing by their man</h2>
<p>It’s no secret that Trump’s campaign – and now tenure in the Oval Office – have been dogged by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/trump-russia-scandal">scandal</a>, accusations of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/03/trumps-reign-corruption-will-now-face-real-opposition-here-are-three-things-watch/?utm_term=.e1e9fae4030a">corruption</a>, and even <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/20/17031772/mueller-indictments-grand-jury">indictments</a> of close associates. He’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/19/politics/trump-putin-relationship/index.html">cosied up</a> to a Russian dictator, allegedly authorised <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/21/17765348/michael-cohen-guilty-plea-stormy-daniels-hush-money">paying off</a> a porn star for her silence, and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/393805-trump-continues-to-mock-john-mccain">made fun of</a> a Vietnam War hero. He’s recently <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/21/president-trump-made-false-or-misleading-claims-his-first-two-years/?utm_term=.e352be13f92f">made</a> more than 8,000 “false or misleading” statements. </p>
<p>If the Republican base hasn’t deserted Trump by now, there’s no reason to think that it would do so if he put on hold his demands for a border wall. It’s even less likely his supporters would jump ship if he rationalised a new proposal as an improvement on current border security. </p>
<p>The Pew Research Center <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2019/01/16/most-border-wall-opponents-supporters-say-shutdown-concessions-are-unacceptable/">shows</a> that a full 76% of Republicans and Republican-leaners “somewhat” or “strongly approve” of Trump’s “handling [of] negotiations over the government shutdown”. This is despite Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/03/politics/government-shutdown-blame-game-donald-trump/index.html">claiming</a> that he would “take the mantle” of owning the shutdown before instead shifting the blame to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. </p>
<p>One might assume that this high level of support is a consequence of Trump’s adamant fight for his signature campaign pledge – and that it might begin to evaporate if he fails to deliver. But for all his faults and missteps, Trump has always maintained high general approval ratings among his base. </p>
<h2>It’s not just the wall</h2>
<p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx">According to</a> a recent Gallup poll, 88% of Republicans approve of the president. That’s a higher number than president Barack Obama enjoyed <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx">among Democrats</a> at a similar point in his first administration. This support has also remained consistent. Since assuming office, Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has never dipped below 77%. </p>
<p>Tennessee Republican Senator Bob Corker has <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/06/14/trump-owns-a-shrinking-republican-party/">lamented</a> that Trump’s base is so faithful that it’s “becoming a cultish thing, isn’t it?” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/article221164105.html">In the words of</a> political columnist Andrew Malcolm, “One of the most puzzling, enduring and intriguing questions about the Trump presidential phenomenon is how he maintains such a stubbornly loyal political base despite what a majority of Americans regard as overwhelming evidence of his inconsistencies and incompetence.” </p>
<p>In 2016, Trump himself <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/01/23/trump_i_could_stand_in_the_middle_of_fifth_avenue_and_shoot_somebody_and_i_wouldnt_lose_any_voters.html">acknowledged</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay? It’s like incredible.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A reasonable compromise</h2>
<p>The wall, however unrealistic, might be different from Trump’s other challenges. It’s about policy and substance, not style and character. But it should actually be easier for Trump to guide conservatives on the former because there’s so much room for salesmanship. The intricate workings of policy compromise are less tangible to voters than accusations of misconduct plastered all over the media. </p>
<p>The most realistic solution is still the most obvious. Trump could request a slight increase in funding for “enhanced border security”. Those dollars could be used to erect new, modest sections of protective fencing along the most vulnerable areas of the southern border, combined with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/us/politics/on-the-mexican-border-a-case-for-technology-over-concrete.html">advanced technology</a> that he could tout as second to none. </p>
<p>Trump could call it a short-term win – and save face – by insisting that his tough stance forced Democratic concessions. Just as importantly, Democrats could agree to the plan because it’s a far cry from the US$5.7 billion that Trump <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/19/read-president-trumps-speech-his-new-offer-reopen-government/2628077002/">demands</a> for a wall. Going into 2020, immigration could again be Trump’s hallmark campaign issue. </p>
<p>It’s true that Trump would incur the wrath of conservative firebrands like Ann Coulter, who <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/21/ann-coulter-once-called-trump-god-now-she-says-hes-gutless-if-he-cant-build-wall/?utm_term=.4e81fea528e5">called</a> the president “gutless” for initially not pushing harder on a wall. Yet there’s zero chance that Coulter and the like won’t fall in line behind Trump when it comes to the next election. </p>
<h2>Trump’s mistake</h2>
<p>For Trump, the shutdown is a tactical misfire. It helps him little with his base (who will support him anyway) – and likely alienates moderate and undecided voters. It also drains the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/01/16/white-house-more-than-doubling-the-shutdowns-negative-impact-on-the-economy/#20f5029459a1">economy</a> and compromises <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/fbi-agents-say-shutdown-threatens-national-security/580039/">national security</a>. </p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/02/foremost-experts-various-topics-according-trump-most-whom-are-trump/?utm_term=.d95736c5d180">own mind</a>, Trump knows more than anyone about nearly everything. So it’s odd that such a solipsistic president seems to be being led astray by his own insecurity. </p>
<p>For reasons that are hard to fathom, Trump’s base is unwavering in its support. Trump, however, appears to have forgotten that – and prospects of an impending end to the government shutdown may diminish as a result.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to Gallup, 88% of Republicans currently approve of the president – so why’s he so worried about his wall?Thomas Gift, Lecturer of Political Science and Director of the Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) Programme, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1096902019-01-11T19:34:39Z2019-01-11T19:34:39ZScience gets shut down right along with the federal government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253422/original/file-20190111-43517-zg0b43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ongoing wildlife studies are one kind of federally funded research that's sidelined during a shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usfwsmtnprairie/5414216420">USFWS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the U.S. government shuts down, much of the science that it supports is not spared. And there is no magic light switch that can be flipped to reverse the impact. </p>
<p>For instance, large-scale instruments like NASA’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/SOFIA/index.html">Stratoscopheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy</a> – the “flying telescope” – have to stop operations. Eventually bringing such instrumentation back up to speed requires over a week. If the shutdown lingers, contingency funds provided to maintain large-scale instruments supported by agencies including NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation will run out and operations will cease, adding to the list of closed facilities.</p>
<p>When I headed NSF’s Division of Chemistry from March 2016 to July 2018, I experienced firsthand two shutdowns like the one <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/us-government-shutdown-2018-48781">the country is weathering now</a>. The 1,800 NSF staff would be sent home, without access to email and without even the option to work voluntarily, until eventually an end to the shutdown was negotiated. As we were unsure how long the shutdowns would run, a lot of time was spent developing contingency plans – and coordinating with many hundreds of researchers about them. Concerns about what will happen to researchers’ day-to-day projects are compounded by apprehension about interruptions to long-term funding.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1077914576941928448"}"></div></p>
<h2>What’s not happening?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/us/government-shutdown-science.html">Many federal agencies perform science</a>. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health are less affected by the shutdown this time since they already have their budgets for fiscal year 2019. But agencies including <a href="https://www.nsf.gov">the NSF</a>, the <a href="https://www.doi.gov/shutdown">Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Parks Service</a>, the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov">U.S. Geological Survey</a>, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov">Environmental Protection Agency</a>, the <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2018/12/shutdown-due-lapse-congressional-appropriations">National Institute of Standards and Technology and NOAA</a> have had to stop most work.</p>
<p>In some sensitive areas involving plants, animals, earth or space phenomena that are cyclical or seasonal, scientists may <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/with-the-government-shutdown-american-scientific-progress-is-disrupted">miss critical windows for research</a>. If something happens only once a year and the moment is now – such as the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-01016-2">pollination window for some drought-resistant plants</a> – a researcher will miss out and must wait another year. Other data sets have long records of measurements that are taken daily or at other defined times. Now they’ll have holes in their data because federal workers can’t do their jobs during a shutdown.</p>
<p>Databases go dark. Many scientists and engineers across the country – indeed, across the globe – rely on the information in these databases, such as those offered by NIST, which is part of the Department of Commerce. When data can’t be accessed, projects are delayed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683732055/government-shutdown-causes-slowdown-in-scientific-research">Vital scientific meetings</a> such as that of the American Meteorological Society and the American Astronomical Society which are heavily reliant upon the expertise of federal scientists have been affected by the shutdown, too. Federal scientists from the closed agencies cannot travel to conferences to learn about the most recent work in the fields, nor share their own findings. </p>
<p>And of course, federal scientists serve as journal editors, reviewers and collaborators on research projects. Their inability to work has an impact across the scientific community in moving science and technology forward for our nation.</p>
<p>Without a doubt, the government shutdown will delay, cancel or compress implementation timelines of initiatives to help drive development of new science and tech in the United States. This affects both U.S. research progress and the American STEM workforce. Missed (or delayed) opportunity costs are high, as some planned investments are in areas with fierce global competition and significant investments by other countries – think next-generation computers and communication – which are critical to the country’s national security.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253454/original/file-20190111-43538-zrti9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists are always hoping for a bigger piece of the federal budget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Budget/63a30f47c9d0491a9e6d8c171e05130b/2/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Budget worries compound the shutdown’s effects</h2>
<p>The shutdown is not some long vacation. The amount of work that must be done at federal agencies isn’t reduced. In fact, while the employees are away, the work continues to build up.</p>
<p>For some divisions at the NSF, where I worked, the early part of the year is the peak period in terms of workload. Scientists submit around <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/funding/aboutfunding.jsp">40,000 research proposals annually</a>, hoping to secure funding for their projects. The longer the shutdown, the more intense the workload will be once the government reopens, since decisions about the support of research still need to occur during the current fiscal year. Decisions – and projects – will be delayed.</p>
<p>It is important to note that the government shutdown is exacerbating the effect of <a href="https://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/s3fs-public/NSF%253B.jpg">mostly flat budgets</a> (with the exception of the 2009 stimulus) that many federally funded scientific agencies have been dealing with for more than a decade.</p>
<p>Prior to the shutdown, contingencies were made to ensure that some of the scientific facilities have spending authority for at least a month or so of operations. But, if the shutdown continues, furloughs of facility staff may become necessary if the limits of obligated funding are reached.</p>
<p>And, with all of these negatives, for all of the agencies that are shut down, the biggest question is what will happen to their budgets. Here we are, four months into the fiscal year, and agencies do not know what will happen to them for what remains of FY 2019. It is difficult to plan, it is difficult to continue to function and it affects STEM workforce morale, retention and ability to attract quality personnel into vitally important scientific roles.</p>
<p>Now that we’re facing the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/09/us/politics/longest-government-shutdown.html">longest government shutdown to date</a>, national security, health and the economy continue to be jeopardized by STEM research that’s been slowed or stopped.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela K. Wilson receives funding from the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, the Petroleum Research Fund, and Reata Pharmaceuticals.</span></em></p>Setting aside personal hardships for workers who don’t see a paycheck during the shutdown, the research enterprise itself loses out, too. And unlike back pay, this lost time can never be made up.Angela K. Wilson, Professor of Physical, Theoretical and Computational Chemistry, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1097102019-01-11T11:46:19Z2019-01-11T11:46:19ZFederal workers begin to feel pain of shutdown as 800,000 lose their paychecks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253351/original/file-20190111-43541-1pztmfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Families are feeling the pinch of the government shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown-Payday/82e8b165a6e544b798eef2870f3ebad2/12/0">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump wants US$5.7 billion to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/us/politics/trump-wall-texas-border.html">fund a border wall</a> to keep out undocumented immigrants and “criminals.” Democrats in Congress say the <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/08/analysis-economists-say-border-wall-is-a-waste-of-money/">wall is a waste of money</a> that wouldn’t solve any of <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/01/wall-alone-cant-secure-border-no-matter-pays/">America’s actual immigration programs</a>.</p>
<p>Caught between the two sides are about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/shutdown-who-gets-sent-home/?amp;utm_term=.db75457d08e1&noredirect=on&utm_term=.27e7c33902aa">800,000 federal workers</a> whose agencies are affected by the partial government shutdown. And although it started about three weeks ago, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/9/18172329/partial-government-shutdown-paycheck">Jan. 11 marks a significant milestone</a>: It’s the first time affected workers didn’t get their paychecks. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://u.osu.edu/zagorsky.1/tag/wealth/">people’s wealth</a>, <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">I</a> understand that while the loss of a single paycheck may not seem like much, for many American families it can be devastating financially.</p>
<h2>The federal workforce</h2>
<p>Overall, the federal government directly employs over 2 million people. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/shutdown-who-gets-sent-home/?amp;utm_term=.db75457d08e1&noredirect=on&utm_term=.fcb6047beeff">Most of them work</a> for departments such as Defense, Education and Labor that remain open because Congress passed spending bills fully funding what they do. About a quarter of the federal government – including the Departments of Homeland Security, Justice and Agriculture – has no new funding, leaving 800,000 workers in the lurch. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/government-shutdown-faq/?utm_term=.aace824bfb8f">380,000 have been furloughed without pay</a>, while 420,000 are <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/who-are-government-nonessential-employees-786671">deemed essential</a> and have to report for work. However, these essential workers are not being paid either.</p>
<p>And on Jan. 11, they’ll feel the impact of that lost pay. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253349/original/file-20190111-43529-12ps6q4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government workers protest the shutdown in Ogden, Utah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown-Missed-Payday/f2a51e441f184949af1fb19727e43238/10/0">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hand to mouth</h2>
<p>So what’s the big deal if these workers don’t get a single paycheck? </p>
<p>The problem is many Americans both in and out of government live paycheck to paycheck. Estimates range anywhere from <a href="https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/news/12427770/34-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck">one-third</a> to more than <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/most-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html">three-quarters</a> make ends meet every two weeks. </p>
<p>No matter which figure is right, it means that many American families cannot financially survive for long without earning money. And a significant share <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/few-americans-have-enough-savings-to-cover-a-1000-emergency.html">don’t have enough money</a> to absorb even a $1,000 emergency expense – let alone a prolonged period of time without a paycheck. </p>
<p>There’s some good news for government workers who have been furloughed. They are eligible for <a href="https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/unemployment-insurance">unemployment insurance</a>, a federally mandated, state-run program that protects workers’ incomes when they lose their job through no fault of their own. </p>
<p>Workers who sign up for unemployment insurance can receive a portion of their wages for up to half a year. For example, Virginia <a href="https://www.vec.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/documents/FAQ%20Unemployment%20Compensation%20for%20Federal%20Employees-2019.docx">tells federal workers</a> they will get anywhere from a minimum of $60 to a maximum of $378 a week if they ask for benefits, depending on their past salary. Washington, D.C., <a href="http://www.savingtoinvest.com/maximum-weekly-unemployment-benefits-by-state/">offers</a> up to $425, <a href="https://www.irs.gov/individuals/employees/unemployment-compensation">all taxable</a>. But even the maximum is barely a quarter of the weekly equivalent of the average federal salary of <a href="https://www.fedscope.opm.gov/employment.asp">$84,000 per year</a>. </p>
<p>Essential government employees inspecting bags at airports or guarding the president, however, have a much tougher problem. They are not eligible for unemployment insurance, which means their only recourse is drawing on their savings – if they have enough – or <a href="https://www.td.com/us/en/personal-banking/govalert/?cm_sp=b000-00-4447">taking out</a> a loan. </p>
<p>Going without a paycheck for a few weeks is hard enough. If the shutdown lasts months or years – as Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/04/politics/shutdown-donald-trump-nancy-pelosi/index.html">has threatened</a> – the situation could get very dire for the average government worker. </p>
<p>And while Congress is required to eventually pay those who worked during the shutdown, there’s no guarantee that it will pay workers that it forcibly furloughed. </p>
<h2>Congress and consequences</h2>
<p>While it’s hard to know when this shutdown might end, the good news is that Congress tends to give all affected workers back pay, regardless of whether they worked during the impasse. That’s what happened in 2013, when <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mo-shutdown-back-pay-furlough-workers-white-house-20131107-story.html">lawmakers unanimously approved</a> paying everyone back. </p>
<p>The bad news is that 800,000 workers are caught in the middle of a political dispute over a wall. And in simple terms, the government is taking a no-interest loan from these workers as they seek (or not) to resolve it.</p>
<p>Resolved or not, I predict two other unfortunate consequences: More talented workers will quit the federal bureaucracy and more will avoid taking federal government jobs in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Because many Americans live paycheck to paycheck, the loss of even one can be a big financial blow for a family.Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior lecturer, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1096882019-01-10T21:35:09Z2019-01-10T21:35:09ZHow a government shutdown affects the economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253306/original/file-20190110-43520-8ehh68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal employees rally to call for an end to the partial government shutdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Government-Shutdown/de9f738d1a8945e4a7b3d18e48146960/19/0">AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Parts of the federal government <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-what-closed-open-affected-explained-post-office-irs-national-parks-2019-01-05/">have been closed</a> since midnight on Dec. 22, making it the longest shutdown on record. It’s <a href="https://www.nj.com/expo/news/erry-2018/12/fd82849e558415/will-the-government-shut-down.html">also the third</a> since President Donald Trump took office. </p>
<p>The immediate and <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683">most visible impact</a> of a shutdown is in the government’s day-to-day operations. Many national museums and parks <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-what-closed-open-affected-explained-post-office-irs-national-parks-2019-01-05/">are closed</a>, immigration hearings are being postponed and the Food and Drug Administration isn’t doing routine inspections of domestic food-processing facilities, to name a few examples. Of the 800,000 federal employees affected by the shutdown, 420,000 are working without pay while the rest have been furloughed. </p>
<p>But beyond the individual workers and families affected, could a short or lengthy shutdown affect the broader U.S. economy as well? </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mmNLdVoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Constantine Yannelis</a>, a business professor at New York University, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8syQapsAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> examined data from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">2013 government shutdown</a> to better understand its impact. </p>
<h2>An economic speed bump</h2>
<p>While a shutdown affects the economy in a number of ways – from delaying business permits and visas to reducing service hours at innumerable agencies – a primary channel through which a shutdown affects the economy is through withheld or foregone pay from federal employees who don’t receive their paychecks. </p>
<p>Since consumer spending makes up <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/consumer-spending-trends-and-current-statistics-3305916">about 70 percent of economic activity</a> in the United States, withholding pay from even some government workers could introduce a significant economic speed bump in the short run. </p>
<p>And that’s exactly what we saw in 2013. </p>
<p>Similar to the situation today, a partisan standoff in Congress <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/lessons-from-the-last-time-the-government-shut-down">led to a partial shutdown of the government</a> that lasted a little over two weeks beginning on Oct. 1 of that year.</p>
<p>Well over a million federal employees were affected and didn’t receive a paycheck during the shutdown. Some were furloughed – sent home and told not to do anything related to their job. Those deemed “essential” or “exempted” – such as security personnel screening passengers at airports or border patrol agents – were required to continue working at their jobs, although they were not receiving paychecks. The government eventually paid both groups the money owed them, regardless of whether they worked, after <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/10/16/235442199/how-we-got-here-a-shutdown-timeline">Democrats and Republicans reached</a> an agreement on Oct. 16, 2013.</p>
<p>My colleague Yannelis and I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">sought to understand</a> how households responded by tracking how they behaved in the days leading up to, during and following the shutdown using detailed financial data. </p>
<p>We obtained this anonymized data from a personal finance website where people track their income, expenses, savings and debt. Using the paycheck transaction descriptions, we identified over 60,000 households that contained employees of federal agencies affected by the shutdown. These affected employees included both those who were asked to work without pay and those who were furloughed.</p>
<p>As a comparison group, we also identified over 90,000 households with a member who worked for a state government. That would likely mean they have fairly similar levels of education, experience and financial security, yet their paychecks were unaffected by the shutdown.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253301/original/file-20190110-43517-1oobzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Federal Aviation Administration employee holds a sign while attending a news conference at Newark Liberty International Airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Government-Shutdown/dade43b244ed4045ab00b46b67ed741f/4/0">AP Photo/Julio Cortez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Short-term impact on spending</h2>
<p>Our study led to two primary findings. </p>
<p>First, we found that the shutdown led to an immediate decline in average household spending of almost 10 percent. Surprisingly, despite the fact that most federal workers have stable jobs and income sources, they were quick to cut spending on pretty much everything, from restaurants to clothing to electronics, just days after their pay was delayed.</p>
<p>While households with less money in the bank cut their spending by larger amounts, even those with significant resources and easy access to credit reduced their expenditures. </p>
<p>Second, households with a member who was furloughed and required to stay home from work slashed their spending more dramatically – by 15 percent to 20 percent, or almost twice as much as the average of those affected. This larger decline reflected the fact that these households suddenly had a lot more time on their hands. Rather than going out to eat or paying for child care for example, they were able to spend more time cooking and watching their own children. </p>
<p>This behavior is what tends to spread the economic effects of a shutdown that affects a slice of the population to a wider group of businesses and individuals behind Washington, D.C. And in regions with substantial numbers of federal workers, these declines in spending can greatly hurt the health of the local economy in the short run. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253303/original/file-20190110-43517-5xhby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The current shutdown has been compared to the 2013 shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-Explains-Government-Shutdown/e51fe25ec48041368d2184f2de49a658/78/0">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Long-term impact?</h2>
<p>Whether or not a shutdown has a longer-term economic impact depends on whether employees are paid their foregone wages after its conclusion – and how long the shutdown lasts. </p>
<p>In 2013, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">government repaid</a> even furloughed workers what they would have earned had the shutdown not happened. </p>
<p>This repayment, essentially increasing the size of their first post-shutdown paychecks, had significant and immediate effects on household spending. A sudden spike in spending occurred in the days after the paychecks were disbursed, largely erasing some of the most dramatic declines in spending during the previous two weeks.</p>
<p>The government has usually paid all its employees, “essential” or not, back pay after other past shutdowns, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">such as those in the 1990s</a>. While Congress is legally required to pay federal employees who worked during the shutdown, there’s no law requiring the same treatment for nonessential workers. </p>
<p>In addition, the longer the shutdown lasts, the worse its impact. Households might deplete savings or hit their credit card limits as the impasse stretches day after day, giving them additional time to adjust their spending in ways that they could not do with only a few days’ notice. For instance, in 2013, bills for health insurance or tuition payments were largely unaffected. Had that shutdown persisted, households may have started to cut back here as well.</p>
<p>So if Congress refuses to offer furloughed workers back pay or the shutdown lasts months rather than weeks, the economic impact could be severe. </p>
<p>However, if a shutdown is resolved in a relatively short amount of time, with workers being paid back their regular income, the damage would likely be fairly contained.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-federal-government-shutdown-damage-the-us-economy-90419">article originally published</a> on Jan. 19, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott R. Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government has been partially closed since Dec. 22, making it the second-longest shutdown on record. A finance professor who studied the 2013 shutdown explains the economic impact.Scott R. Baker, Assistant Professor of Finance, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1095642019-01-09T21:57:24Z2019-01-09T21:57:24ZThe science of the deal: A negotiation expert explains how Trump and the Democrats could both end the shutdown with a win<p>Donald Trump and congressional Democrats are stuck in a negotiation stalemate that is preventing an end to the government shutdown. </p>
<p>Trump wants a wall, but Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer refuse to support funding for a physical barrier – positions <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-speech-shutdown-border/index.html">they recently reiterated</a> while addressing the nation in primetime. Currently, both sides <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/us/politics/government-shutdown-trump-senate.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">are operating in a manner</a> that often prevents deals from getting made.</p>
<p>Understanding how people influence each other is central to my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=L6ejU7cAAAAJ&hl=en">research</a> and <a href="http://www.parkerellen.com/negotiation">teaching</a> as a management professor at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business. In essence, I study the science, rather than the art, of the deal. </p>
<p>This work shows why the shutdown continues and how both sides could walk away with a win. </p>
<h2>Positions versus interests</h2>
<p>Research on negotiation highlights the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/324551/getting-to-yes-by-roger-fisher-and-william-ury/9780143118756/">importance of distinguishing between positions and interests</a>. </p>
<p>Positions are the initial <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/negotiation/book233819">demands or starting points</a> from which both sides typically need to move for an agreement to be reached. Interests, on the other hand, are the <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/negotiation/book233819">underlying motives</a> for positions – the reasons people make demands in the first place. </p>
<p>When parties to a negotiation focus on positions, they <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/324551/getting-to-yes-by-roger-fisher-and-william-ury/9780143118756/">often reach an impasse</a>. Why? Because there really is only one way to satisfy a position – you either get what you asked for or you don’t.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253111/original/file-20190109-32136-crj8oj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers replace sections of the border wall in Tijuana, Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Central-American-Migrant-Caravan/f822466bcd2b4440b4872cc5da295f2a/22/0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Putting positions first</h2>
<p>A focus on positions is evident in the negotiation to end the partial government shutdown – and why it may soon <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-government-shutdowns-in-congress-2018-1">become the longest in American history</a>. </p>
<p>Each side’s position is clear: wall or no wall. President Trump has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/423883-trump-demands-wall-in-letter-to-congress">demanded</a> that a bill to reopen the government include more than US$5 billion for a physical barrier along the southern border of the United States. Conversely, Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer insist that although they would consider providing money for increased border security they will not provide funding for a wall. </p>
<p>In negotiations research, this is referred to as a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/314284/negotiating-the-nonnegotiable-by-daniel-shapiro/9780143110170/">competitive approach</a> to bargaining in which the two sides “take firm, opposing stances, cling tightly to them and stubbornly refuse to concede.” </p>
<p>This is a “win-lose” or “zero-sum” approach in which any gains for one party come at a direct cost to the other party. </p>
<h2>Negotiating based on interests</h2>
<p>A focus on interests, however, is at the core of what is referred to as integrative bargaining, which aligns with a collaborative approach to negotiations. </p>
<p>The language used in their recent <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/08/683230863/transcript-trumps-address-on-border-security-and-democrats-response">primetime addresses</a> hints at the interests of both sides. Trump seemed to focus on preventing drugs and criminals from crossing the border. The Democrats’ response suggested they are primarily interested in the humane treatment and safe passage for people who want, and perhaps even need, to enter the United States.</p>
<p>When people negotiate over interests, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/314284/negotiating-the-nonnegotiable-by-daniel-shapiro/9780143110170/">they look beneath positions</a> and seek to satisfy needs, which is the real reason we should negotiate. </p>
<p>This approach can produce more creative alternatives for an agreement. It also places importance on the relationship, in addition to the outcome, which typically paves the way for more productive negotiations between the parties in the future. </p>
<h2>Compatibility issues</h2>
<p>So why don’t Trump, Pelosi and Schumer simply negotiate based on interests instead of positions and end the shutdown? </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this often is easier said than done. People often <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/ialrr36&div=34&id=&page=">incorrectly assume</a> that, like positions, their and the other party’s interests are in direct conflict. </p>
<p>Interests, on the other hand, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/314284/negotiating-the-nonnegotiable-by-daniel-shapiro/9780143110170/">tend to be more compatible</a>. In fact, because <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/324551/getting-to-yes-by-roger-fisher-and-william-ury/9780143118756/">interests ultimately define the problem</a>, focusing on them can provide far more options for an agreement that satisfies the needs of both parties. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253112/original/file-20190109-32133-100l6qz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump gave a primetime address about border security on Jan. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Government-Shutdown-Trump/b2997d18f7c84eb88adab190f3c1e8e5/1/0">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Finding a win-win solution</h2>
<p>Although the current political climate clearly amplifies both sides’ competitive approach and hinders a shift from positions to interests, that is the most productive path to an agreement. Unfortunately, we have seen only hints of a discussion of interests to date. </p>
<p>To end the shutdown, both sides should find a way to make that shift. For example, Trump could do more to acknowledge the Democrats’ interest in fair treatment of those who want to enter the United States. Schumer and Pelosi could put more emphasis on the importance of Trump’s desire for increased border security. </p>
<p>And most importantly, both sides should present proposals to end the crisis that satisfy the other party’s legitimate interests. It’s a difficult task, but it’s the only way both sides, and the country, can win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>B. Parker Ellen III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump, Schumer and Pelosi have fallen into a classic negotiation trap that often prevents deals from getting made, which has led to the shutdown stalemate.B. Parker Ellen III, Assistant Professor of Management, D'Amore-McKim School of Business, Northeastern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1095972019-01-09T18:57:43Z2019-01-09T18:57:43ZTrump calls border a ‘crisis of the soul’: 3 scholars react to his Oval Office address<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253084/original/file-20190109-32142-1c4l47q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Presidents have traditionally given Oval Office addresses during only the gravest of crises.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Government-Shutdown-Trump/b2997d18f7c84eb88adab190f3c1e8e5/1/0">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/politics/trump-speech-transcript.html">address to the nation</a> on Wednesday night from the Oval Office announced no new initiatives either to end the government shutdown or to build the wall that’s caused the shutdown.</em></p>
<p><em>Instead, Trump stressed the themes – <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-crisis-at-the-us-mexico-border-6-essential-reads-109547">most of them discredited</a> – that he’s long depended on to support his demand for the wall to bar entry to a sea of immigrants who will bring crime, drugs and mayhem into the country.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked a panel of scholars to respond to the speech.</em></p>
<h2>Trump backs himself against the wall</h2>
<p><strong>Enrique Armijo, Associate Professor of Law and Associate Dean of Academic Affairs, Elon University</strong></p>
<p>Going into Trump’s speech, there was much speculation that the president might declare an emergency under the 1976 <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/2808">National Emergencies Act</a> to pay for the $5.7 billion border wall that is behind the current government shutdown – funds that House Democrats have refused to provide. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/08/trump-pitches-american-public-wall-demands-1088707">That didn’t happen</a>, though reports are the administration is still considering the option.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/politics/trump-national-emergency.html?action=click&module=inline&pgtype=Homepage">constitutional issues</a> associated with such a declaration are <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/no-trump-cant-build-a-wall-through-military-eminent-domain/">far from clear</a>. First off, the facts underlying whether an emergency exists are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/politics/trump-speech.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">disputed</a>, to say the least. </p>
<p>A National Emergencies Act declaration for wall funding would immediately <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/can-president-trump-fund-wall-declaring-national-emergency">be challenged in court</a>. Congressional Democrats would argue that this is a usurpation of their legislative appropriation power. </p>
<p>States and private landowners would also protest their land being taken by eminent domain for the project, since the federal government <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3235689">owns less than a third of the land needed to build the wall</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the lack of legal clarity — and the inevitable delays that such a lack of clarity would bring — there is another more straightforward reason why the administration didn’t declare an emergency, one that was likely obvious even to a president who has shown himself to be not quite <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-07/trump-s-shutdown-proves-he-was-never-a-great-dealmaker?srnd=opinion">as good a dealmaker as was advertised</a>. </p>
<p>The reason is this: The formal declaration of an emergency would limit Trump’s ability to strike a compromise. </p>
<p>Without one, Trump will be able to declare victory and sign a bill reopening the government after finding a middle ground with Democrats, and then try to sell that compromise <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18174776/trump-speech-border-wall-immigration-democrats-reaction">to his angry base</a>. </p>
<p>But once he declares it’s a wall or nothing, the issue will be resolved by the courts – which may well tell Trump he can have nothing at all. </p>
<p>It appears the self-declared “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/06/politics/donald-trump-white-house-fitness-very-stable-genius/index.html">very stable genius</a>” does understand a little game theory.</p>
<h2>Making a crisis when there is none</h2>
<p><strong>Michael Blake, Professor of Philosophy, Public Policy, and Governance, University of Washington</strong></p>
<p>Trump used the word “crisis” six times to vouch for his proposed wall. </p>
<p>He described a border under siege by an unprecedented number of undocumented migrants, unusually prone to violence and mayhem, whose progress could only be stopped by a physical barrier.</p>
<p>That description is, to put it mildly, poorly supported by the facts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253098/original/file-20190109-32139-10ntoh6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrants watch Trump’s Jan. 8 speech on border security in a shelter in Tijuana, Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Government-Shutdown-Trump/9cc092bb05084377987f6407c0d1e051/2/0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The number of undocumented migrants seeking to cross into the United States is now <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/8/18173721/trump-border-facts-truth-speech-lying">considerably lower than it was only a decade ago</a>; the undocumented tend to be <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/criminal-immigrants-texas-illegal-immigrant#endnote-003">more law-abiding than the native born</a>, not less; and few experts think that a barrier itself is <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/01/wall-alone-cant-secure-border-no-matter-pays/">an effective means of preventing illegal immigration</a>.</p>
<p>Trump’s distortion of facts isn’t new. What is new – and, from the standpoint of political ethics, deeply troubling – is the heightened emphasis on a crisis through a formal address. </p>
<p>Both political philosophy and common-sense morality would say that <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=EuTQCQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=%22supreme%20emergency%22&f=false">normal procedure doesn’t apply during an emergency</a>. Citizens are more willing, in the face of an emergency, to surrender allegiance to particular rules and to the moral principles that undergird them. Even deeply held moral beliefs, such as the wrongness of separating young children from their parents, might need to be suspended in a genuine crisis. </p>
<p>When President Franklin D. Roosevelt ordered the internment of Japanese-Americans during the Second World War, he justified the decision by saying that the United States was facing an “<a href="https://www.ibiblio.org/pha/timeline/410527awp.html">unlimited national emergency</a>.”</p>
<p>So when President Trump asserts that the border is in crisis, he gives himself permission in effect to take whatever radical or unprecedented action he deems necessary to end that crisis. If he violates legal or moral rules in the process – well, that’s simply a tough-minded response to an emergency.</p>
<p>The extraordinary nature of a crisis, however, requires an extraordinary level of evidence. Elected officials must show the public evidence that the crisis exists, and that the proposed solution will genuinely fix the problem. </p>
<p>Otherwise, a temporary permission to suspend normal rules tends to become a permanent permission to ignore them.</p>
<h2>Not an authoritarian speech</h2>
<p><strong>Sylvia Taschka, Senior Lecturer of History, Wayne State University</strong></p>
<p>American presidents have traditionally made Oval Office speeches only under the gravest circumstances, such as during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis or after the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/president-bush-addresses-the-nation">Sept. 11 terrorist attacks</a>. </p>
<p>So when Trump said he would address border security in a nationally televised speech, critics who see authoritarian tendencies in this president understandably got worried. They feared he would declare a national emergency, <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/national-emergency-trump-authoritarian-powers.html">abusing his executive powers</a> to <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trump-wall-shutdown-national-emergency-pelosi-1283158">build a wall along the Southern border</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, viewers got a rather measured – if somewhat hastily and awkwardly delivered – speech by a softer version of a president better known for provocative, vicious rhetoric and obsessive daily tweets. Trump sat behind the Oval Office’s iconic, heavy wooden desk, framed by his beloved golden curtains, American flags and photos of his parents. </p>
<p>On the surface, this restrained address didn’t look or sound authoritarian. Trump showed neither the grand posturing of a <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/benito-mussolini">Benito Mussolini</a> nor the maniacal intensity of a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joseph-Goebbels">Joseph Goebbels</a>.</p>
<p>What he did do, prominently, is what he’s done since his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/06/16/donald-trump-to-announce-his-presidential-plans-today/">2016 presidential campaign</a>: hype up a manageable situation to create a “crisis.” </p>
<p>He portrayed the drug trade and undocumented immigration – decades-old social issues tackled by numerous government agencies – as existential threats that allegedly pose a mortal danger to the American people. </p>
<p>By evoking horrific crimes committed by a small number of immigrants, he turned an entire group of people into composite figures of limitless cruelty – perpetrators of rape, brutal murder and other particularly heinous crimes.</p>
<p>He demanded a border barrier – be it a concrete wall, metal slats, or, why not, a giant “no trespassing” sign – to “protect our country.”</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/?utm_term=.45bd922719b2">completely unjustified vilification</a> – immigrants <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/28/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/">commit less crime than native-born Americans</a> – culminated in a rhetorical question: </p>
<p>“How much more American blood must we shed?” </p>
<p>His language implies that some people’s lives are worth more than others. This stance recalls racist, nationalist policies of the past in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/europe/world-returns-to-1930s-intl/index.html">both Europe and the United States</a> – a past many had foolishly hoped had been put behind us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Blake receives funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Enrique Armijo and Sylvia Taschka do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked experts on ethics, constitutional law and European political history to analyze Trump’s Oval Office address. Here’s what they heard in his speech about ‘crisis’ at the US-Mexico border.Enrique Armijo, Associate Professor of Law and Associate Dean of Academic Affairs, Elon UniversityMichael Blake, Professor of Philosophy, Public Policy, and Governance, University of WashingtonSylvia Taschka, Senior Lecturer of History, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1094912019-01-09T11:45:14Z2019-01-09T11:45:14ZWhy Trump will likely lose the government shutdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252968/original/file-20190109-32154-1pu9qf8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Government-Shutdown/4c48e859e8594ec78b158ccd46a2b08c/3/0">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/tired-winning-victor-shutdowns-typically-president-n954046">biggest myths</a> about government shutdowns is that presidents usually win.</p>
<p>This may explain why President Donald Trump threatened to continue <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/tired-winning-victor-shutdowns-typically-president-n954046">the shutdown for months, even years</a>. However, a poll conducted in the first week of January shows that 51 percent of adults believe <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shutdown-poll/a-growing-number-of-americans-blame-trump-for-shutdown-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1P223U?il=0">Trump is to blame</a> for the shutdown.</p>
<p>I’m <a href="https://www.lagrange.edu/">a scholar of political science</a> and often research presidential politics. I did an analysis of Gallup data, a group that does public opinion polling, from its <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">Presidential Job Approval Center</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="fXWM3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fXWM3/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>There have been 18 shutdowns since 1977. I found that in the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-the-longest-government-shutdown-every-government-shutdown-and-how-long-they-lasted/">nine longest shutdowns</a> during that time, presidents lose an average of 3 percentage points of public support or approval during a government shutdown of four or more days. </p>
<h2>Most presidents lose shutdowns</h2>
<p>In only two of the nine cases that I looked at did a chief executive boost his numbers. Jimmy Carter inched up a percentage point or two in 1977 and 1978 during the government shutdowns that took place during his presidency.</p>
<p>In the seven other cases, the shutdown led to declines in public approval of the president. And in the majority of cases, the president’s party lost the next presidential election.</p>
<p>The clearest example is President George H. W. Bush. In 1990, this GOP president was riding a 66 percent approval rating after the successful Operation Desert Shield (when we sent U.S. troops to Saudi Arabia to deter an attack by Iraq) and a long period of economic growth. </p>
<p>But Bush and the Democratic-controlled Congress battled over the budget deficit, triggering a government shutdown <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1990/10/09/us/the-budget-battle-countdown-to-crisis-reaching-a-1991-budget-agreement.html">from Oct. 5 to 9</a>. Public approval for Bush fell <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">10 percentage points</a>.</p>
<p>Some of this may have been the result of Bush approving tax increases to close the budget deficit, which broke one of his campaign pledges of “no new taxes.” </p>
<p>But images of closed federal facilities didn’t help, giving voters the appearance of Bush presiding over gridlock. This hurt him in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/08/09/us/1992-campaign-candidates-records-bush-congress-rising-feud-produced-legislative.html">1992 election</a>, when voters agreed with Democrats that Bush’s policies led to legislative deadlock.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252969/original/file-20190109-32145-zki0c1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Clinton vetoes the second spending and borrowing bill Monday, Nov. 13, 1995.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Dist-of-Columbi-/7bd05edef7e6da11af9f0014c2589dfb/1/0">AP Photo/Dirk Halstead</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2013/09/25/how-clinton-won-the-government-shutdown-fight-why-obama-will-too/">Pundits</a> often cite the case of Democratic President Bill Clinton as an exception. They claim <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/12/newt-gingrichs-1995-shutdown-came-fit-pique/578923/">he “won”</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-will-government-shutdown-last-2018-1">the longest shutdown</a> in U.S. history. This shutdown took place from Dec. 5, 1995 to Jan. 6, 1996, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/19/ghost-shutdowns-past-haunts-latest-talks-keep-federal-government-open/1047438001/">or 21 full days</a>. </p>
<p>GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich wanted to reduce the budget deficit, while Clinton opposed deep cuts in <a href="http://bancroft.berkeley.edu/ROHO/projects/debt/governmentshutdown.html">Social Security and Medicare</a>.</p>
<p>It’s true that <a href="https://www.newsmax.com/LannyDavis/Clinton-Government-Shutdown-Gingrich/2013/09/25/id/527672/">Clinton went on to defeat GOP Sen. Robert Dole</a> – one of his rivals during the shutdown – in the 1996 election. But Gallup polling shows that Clinton’s approval ratings from mid-November to early January had fallen 11 percentage points to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">42 percent</a>. </p>
<p>In other circumstances, this could have cost Clinton another term. But in this case, he faced no opposition in his Democratic primary, while Dole lost precious time and money battling several rivals for the 1996 GOP nomination. I believe Clinton won in spite of the shutdown, not because of it.</p>
<h2>Why presidents lose</h2>
<p>People see the president as the most powerful actor in government. </p>
<p>“Presidents have more authority than anyone else in the United States government, and control more money and military forces than any other person in the world,” write Hoover Institution scholars Paul T. Hill and Ashley E. Jochim in their book <a href="https://www.crpe.org/sites/default/files/crpe-model-state-chiefs.pdf">“The Power of Persuasion.”</a></p>
<p>Hill and Jochim note that despite all of that power, presidents much work with Congress to get tasks accomplished. Because of their perceived power, presidents are often expected to accomplish more than their constitutional authority allows them to get done, notes Richard Neustadt in his book <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Presidential_Power.html?id=-rxEAAAAIAAJ&source=kp_book_description">“Presidential Power.”</a> </p>
<p>When the government is closed, history shows the president will be held accountable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109491/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The popular opinion is that presidents win government shutdowns, but a review of polling evidence paints a different picture.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1094172019-01-07T00:19:22Z2019-01-07T00:19:22ZWould bringing back pork-barrel spending end government shutdowns?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252593/original/file-20190106-32136-9fnjuw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., second from right, walk toward the Capitol building, Jan. 4, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/New-Congress/5e0e6f888c6d4b92b6181165b2340737/2/0">AP/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For eight years, Congress has banned the use of earmarks, otherwise known as “pork-barrel spending.” Earmarks paid for pet projects of legislators back in their districts, as a way of encouraging those officials’ votes for a spending bill. </p>
<p>But earmarks were seen by many members of the public as wasteful and distasteful. Even some lawmakers didn’t like them. </p>
<p>“Earmarks are the gateway drug to spending addiction,” <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uof0TefzQRMC&lpg=PR4-IA65&ots=hsDaNcni5r&dq=%E2%80%9CEarmarks%20are%20the%20gateway%20drug%20to%20spending%20addiction.%E2%80%9D&pg=PR4-IA65#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9CEarmarks%20are%20the%20gateway%20drug%20to%20spending%20addiction.%E2%80%9D&f=false">said Sen. Tom Coburn, a Republican from Oklahoma,</a> in 2007.</p>
<p>But now, in the middle of one of the longest federal government shutdowns on record, Rep. Nita Lowey, the new chairwoman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, made a bold statement: She wants to bring back pork-barrel spending in order to make passing appropriations bills easier.</p>
<p>“I would be supportive of earmarks,” Lowey, a Democrat from New York, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2019/01/05/shutdown-negotiations-drag-on-371052">told Politico</a>. “I think there is a way to do it.”</p>
<h2>Greasing the wheels – maybe</h2>
<p>Earmarks would not have solved the current government shutdown, which is the result of an impasse between congressional Democrats and President Trump over funding the president’s border wall. </p>
<p>But Lowey’s not alone in her concern with Congress’ inability to pass spending bills on schedule. That difficulty, which has ended in several government shutdowns in the last decade, has produced unrelenting criticism by commentators and members of Congress alike. </p>
<p>A return to earmarking – for <a href="https://www.cagw.org/content/pig-book-2010">projects ranging</a> from new bridges to museum funding to renewable energy research, tailored for individual members’ districts – would require lifting a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/what-is-an-earmark/2012/01/27/gIQAK6HGvQ_story.html?utm_term=.4d20f6eae67f">2011 moratorium</a> imposed on the practice.</p>
<p>I have <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/greasing-wheels-using-pork-barrel-projects-build-majority-coalitions-congress?format=PB&isbn=9780521545327#iRqCLBv6sXpLtGJr.97">studied</a> the effect of pork-barrel spending on passing spending bills. Although earmarks are worth reconsidering as a way of greasing the legislative wheels, I would argue that the case for them is mixed.</p>
<p>Pro-earmark arguments have come from <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-bipartisan-movement-to-bring-back-earmarks-in-congress">both parties</a>. The supporters include Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Susan Collins, R-Maine, as well as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/01/12/trump-just-praised-earmarks-heres-what-the-fuss-is-about/?utm_term=.c59c812e7fb8">President Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Simultaneously, pressure from House Republicans led former Speaker Paul Ryan <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?439801-1/house-rules-committee-holds-hearing-earmarks">to allow hearings</a> to consider ending the 2011 earmark moratorium. </p>
<p>Prior to 2011, these earmarks were, with a few exceptions, regularly, and until 2006, in increasingly <a href="https://www.cagw.org/content/pig-book-2010#historical_trends">large numbers,</a> put into appropriations bills as well as highway reauthorizations to help smooth the way to passage. </p>
<h2>Pork helps move things along</h2>
<p>My own <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/greasing-wheels-using-pork-barrel-projects-build-majority-coalitions-congress?format=PB&isbn=9780521545327#iRqCLBv6sXpLtGJr.97">research</a>, as well as that of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3186129?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents/">Frances Lee of the University of Maryland</a>, shows that earmarks helped transportation committee leaders pass three massive highway bills, overcoming significant policy controversies surrounding each bill. I also found that earmarks were often helpful in passing appropriations bills. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, to opponents, earmarks remain pork-barrel projects that are rife with waste and reek of corruption. Former Sen. Clare McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat, called earmarks “the Washington swamp creature that <a href="https://www.toomey.senate.gov/?p=news&id=2097">just never seems to die.”</a> </p>
<p>To supporters, on the other hand, earmarks are a legitimate use of Congress’ constitutionally mandated <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Cheese_Factories_on_the_Moon.html?id=xwILSgAACAAJ">power of the purse</a>, which, not incidentally, may help members’ political careers.</p>
<p>Earmark proponents say a return to the practice could remedy the long-running difficulty of passing appropriations bills in a carefully considered, transparent manner. </p>
<h2>What did we spend that money for?</h2>
<p>In the normal appropriations process, Congress would pass 12 individual spending bills each year, a process designed to give members of Congress a chance to examine the spending in each bill before voting. </p>
<p>The reality is far different. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/16/congress-has-long-struggled-to-pass-spending-bills-on-time/">Data compiled</a> by the Pew Research Center show that between the 2011 earmark moratorium and fiscal year 2018, only one individual appropriations bill was enacted, rather than the 84 appropriations bills Congress should have passed. </p>
<p>The record was somewhat better last year, when five of the 12 bills became law. The remaining seven Fiscal Year 2019 appropriations bills have been held up by the president’s insistence on funding for a border wall in the Homeland Security bill.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211762/original/file-20180323-54869-1e7i2ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pork-barrel spending can help move things along.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead of using the process that encourages careful consideration of individual spending items, Congress has funded government agencies in <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/16/congress-has-long-struggled-to-pass-spending-bills-on-time/">massive omnibus appropriations bills or full-year continuing resolutions</a>. These bills make it virtually impossible for members to know what they are voting for. </p>
<p>This breakdown in the appropriations process coincides neatly with the earmark moratorium. </p>
<p>However, the process did not always go smoothly before the moratorium either. The <a href="https://www.cagw.org/content/pig-book-2010#historical_trends">large increase</a> between 1991 and 2006 in the cost of earmarks, from $3.1 billion to $29 billion, did not ensure the passage of stand-alone appropriations bills.</p>
<p>Would earmarks now help Congress pass appropriations bills? </p>
<p>The evidence is less clear than it is for highway bills. I <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/greasing-wheels-using-pork-barrel-projects-build-majority-coalitions-congress?format=PB&isbn=9780521545327#iRqCLBv6sXpLtGJr.97">analyzed</a> a number of Senate appropriations bills from 1994 to 2000; although the political dynamics might be different today, the findings could be helpful for the current conversation about earmarks. </p>
<p>In 1994, when the Democrats controlled Congress, earmarks helped convince senators to vote in support of the positions of the powerful appropriations subcommittee chairs. </p>
<p>After the Republican takeover in 1995, however, earmarks were somewhat less effective. By 2000, with Republicans still in control, earmarks – although growing in number and cost – had no discernible effect on senators’ appropriations votes. </p>
<h2>Partisanship could undermine earmarks’ benefits</h2>
<p>My interviews with committee staff members suggested various reasons for this. Prominent among them, according to one staffer, was the fact that votes were “increasingly … on highly charged substantive policy matters.” Senators needed to vote on those issues in a partisan manner, regardless of earmarks. </p>
<p>Another staffer blamed the failure of leaders to punish disloyal members by removing their earmarks. </p>
<p>That staffer said, “People have no shame. They vote no and take the dough.”</p>
<p>It is difficult to predict how returning to pork-barrel spending would work today. </p>
<p>For earmarks to be effective tools, members who otherwise would oppose the bills on a partisan or ideological basis would have to vote contrary to their own or their party’s preferences. Their willingness to do so would undoubtedly depend partly on the electoral consequences.</p>
<p>As Yale political scientist David Mayhew has <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300105872/congress">argued</a>, members believe that bringing benefits to their home district gives them something they can claim credit for, enhancing their chances for re-election. That gives congressional leaders leverage over members’ votes.</p>
<p>The evidence for this effect is nuanced, however. </p>
<p>Earmarks can help members <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268013000633">win re-election</a>, especially when members <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-words-and-money-cultivate-a-personal-vote-the-effect-of-legislator-credit-claiming-on-constituent-credit-allocation/7538BBE494CE31274DAE7F9F2E220F04">claim credit for them</a>. </p>
<p>But there is also evidence that constituents are more likely to reward Democrats than Republicans <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4935138_Deficits_Democrats_and_Distributive_Benefits_Congressional_Elections_and_the_Pork_Barrel_In_The_1980s">for such benefits</a>. This is not entirely surprising, given that earmarks are consistent with Democrats’ commitment to activist government. For Republicans committed to cutting the cost of government, bringing home earmarks could be painted as hypocritical. </p>
<p>These differences could help explain why I found that earmarks provided leaders with less leverage over members’ votes in Republican-controlled congresses.</p>
<h2>The powerful get more</h2>
<p>At their peak, earmarks amounted to approximately 3 percent of the discretionary budget, the portion that Congress controls, which amounts to about one-third of total federal spending. As a result of earmark reform in 2007, spending on earmarks dropped to 1.3 percent <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02304.x/abstract">of the discretionary budget</a>. In fiscal year 2010, earmarks cost $16.5 billion.</p>
<p>Earmarks are vulnerable to other criticisms, not least of which is the disproportionate share awarded to the districts of the most powerful members, particularly to members and leaders of the appropriations committees. </p>
<p>For example, scholar <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X15576952">Austin Clemens and his colleagues found</a> that in 2008 and 2009, members of the House Appropriations Committee got 35 percent of all earmarked dollars. That was more than twice what they would have received if earmarks had been equally distributed among all the committee members.</p>
<p>In addition, the majority party gets disproportionately more earmarks than the minority, although the minority gets enough to make it harder for them to use earmarks as a campaign issue. That’s a strategy dubbed “partisan blame avoidance,” <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3088396?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">according to Steven J. Balla of George Washington University and his colleagues</a>.</p>
<p>While it is tempting to condemn earmarks as frivolous or corrupt, research paints a more complex picture of their role in the governing process. </p>
<p>As Congress wrestles with the process of passing individual appropriations bills, party leaders may respond by once again allowing earmarks in appropriations bills, winning more votes for spending bills, and protecting some of their own vulnerable members at the polls.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-return-to-earmarks-could-grease-the-wheels-in-congress-91811">an article</a> originally published on March 26, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Evans is affiliated with
Common Cause in Connecticut </span></em></p>Banned since 2011, pork-barrel spending may well help Congress pass bills on schedule. Now, a powerful Democratic lawmaker said she’d like to resurrect the practice to make passing budgets easier.Diana Evans, Professor of political science, Trinity CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1091822018-12-20T21:45:17Z2018-12-20T21:45:17ZWhat’s the economic impact of a government shutdown?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251821/original/file-20181220-103641-1a4htze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will Congress avert another shutdown?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump-Border-Wall/4a1af5880bfe413c8dbc7e3ff5a219cb/1/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump and Congress are once again <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-20/trump-won-t-sign-senate-spending-bill-as-shutdown-deadline-nears?srnd=premium">on the verge of a partial federal government shutdown</a>. If they fail to reach an agreement, it would be the <a href="https://www.nj.com/expo/news/erry-2018/12/fd82849e558415/will-the-government-shut-down.html">third shutdown in two years</a>. </p>
<p>The immediate and <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdown-3305683">most visible impact</a> of a shutdown is in the government’s day-to-day operations. Some departments and offices, like the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/20/18136667/partial-government-shutdown-post-office-military-passports">Internal Revenue Service</a>, would be closed, and nonessential federal employees across the government would stay home. </p>
<p>But beyond the individual workers and families affected, could a short or lengthy shutdown affect the broader U.S. economy as well? </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mmNLdVoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Constantine Yannelis</a>, a business professor at New York University, and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8syQapsAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> examined data from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">2013 government shutdown</a> to better understand its impact. </p>
<h2>An economic speed bump</h2>
<p>While a shutdown affects the economy in a number of ways – from delaying business permits and visas to reducing service hours at innumerable agencies – a primary channel through which a shutdown affects the economy is through withheld or foregone pay from federal employees who don’t receive their paychecks. </p>
<p>Since consumer spending makes up <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/consumer-spending-trends-and-current-statistics-3305916">about 70 percent of economic activity</a> in the United States, withholding pay from even some government workers could introduce a significant economic speed bump in the short run. </p>
<p>And that’s exactly what we saw in 2013. </p>
<p>Similar to the situation today, a partisan standoff in Congress <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/lessons-from-the-last-time-the-government-shut-down">led to a partial shutdown of the government</a> that lasted a little over two weeks beginning on Oct. 1 of that year.</p>
<p>Well over a million federal employees were affected and didn’t receive a paycheck during the shutdown. Some were furloughed – sent home and told not to do anything related to their job. Those deemed “essential” or “exempted” – such as security personnel screening passengers at airports or border patrol agents – were required to continue working at their jobs, although they were not receiving paychecks. The government eventually paid both groups the money owed them, regardless of whether they worked, after <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/10/16/235442199/how-we-got-here-a-shutdown-timeline">Democrats and Republicans reached</a> an agreement on Oct. 16. </p>
<p>My colleague Yannelis and I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.09.005">sought to understand</a> how households responded by tracking how they behaved in the days leading up to, during and following the shutdown using detailed financial data. </p>
<p>We obtained this anonymized data from a personal finance website where people track their income, expenses, savings and debt. Using the paycheck transaction descriptions, we identified over 60,000 households that contained employees of federal agencies affected by the shutdown. These affected employees included both those who were asked to work without pay and those who were furloughed.</p>
<p>As a comparison group, we also identified over 90,000 households with a member who worked for a state government. That would likely mean they have fairly similar levels of education, experience and financial security, yet their paychecks were unaffected by the shutdown.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202640/original/file-20180119-110081-q0daov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Who will be blamed for a government shutdown?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Short-term impact on spending</h2>
<p>Our study led to two primary findings. </p>
<p>First, we found that the shutdown led to an immediate decline in average household spending of almost 10 percent. Surprisingly, despite the fact that most federal workers have stable jobs and income sources, they were quick to cut spending on pretty much everything, from restaurants to clothing to electronics, just days after their pay was delayed.</p>
<p>While households with less money in the bank cut their spending by larger amounts, even those with significant resources and easy access to credit reduced their expenditures. </p>
<p>Second, households with a member who was furloughed and required to stay home from work slashed their spending more dramatically – by 15 percent to 20 percent, or almost twice as much as the average of those affected. This larger decline reflected the fact that these households suddenly had a lot more time on their hands. Rather than going out to eat or paying for child care for example, they were able to spend more time cooking and watching their own children. </p>
<p>This behavior is what tends to spread the economic effects of a shutdown that affects a slice of the population to a wider group of businesses and individuals behind Washington, D.C. And in regions with substantial numbers of federal workers, these declines in spending can greatly hurt the health of the local economy in the short run. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202639/original/file-20180119-110094-zxwiwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2013, pizzas kept lawmakers going during the shutdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Long-term impact?</h2>
<p>Whether or not a shutdown has a longer-term economic impact depends on whether employees are paid their foregone wages after its conclusion – and how long the shutdown lasts. </p>
<p>In 2013, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">government repaid</a> even furloughed workers what they would have earned had the shutdown not happened. </p>
<p>This repayment, essentially increasing the size of their first post-shutdown paychecks, had significant and immediate effects on household spending. A sudden spike in spending occurred in the days after the paychecks were disbursed, largely erasing some of the most dramatic declines in spending during the previous two weeks.</p>
<p>The government has usually paid all its employees, “essential” or not, back pay after other past shutdowns, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-past-shutdowns-congress-gave-federal-workers-back-pay-this-time-dont-count-on-it/2013/09/23/a7028e3e-2485-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html">such as those in the 1990s</a>. While Congress is legally required to pay federal employees who worked during the shutdown, there’s no law requiring the same treatment for nonessential workers. </p>
<p>In addition, the longer the shutdown lasts, the worse its impact. Households might deplete savings or hit their credit card limits as the impasse stretches day after day, giving them additional time to adjust their spending in ways that they could not do with only a few days’ notice. For instance, in 2013, bills for health insurance or tuition payments were largely unaffected. Had that shutdown persisted, households may have started to cut back here as well.</p>
<p>So if Congress refuses to offer furloughed workers back pay and the shutdown lasts weeks rather than days, the economic impact could be severe. </p>
<p>However, if a shutdown is resolved in a relatively short amount of time, with workers being paid back their regular income, the damage would likely be fairly contained.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-a-federal-government-shutdown-damage-the-us-economy-90419">article originally published</a> on Jan. 19, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott R. Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With President Trump insisting on funding for his border wall and Democrats vehemently opposed, a partial government shutdown is possible. Here’s what it could mean for the economy.Scott R. Baker, Assistant Professor of Finance, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.