tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/voter-suppression-61712/articlesVoter suppression – The Conversation2024-03-11T12:24:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229672024-03-11T12:24:32Z2024-03-11T12:24:32ZAncient Rome successfully fought against voter intimidation − a political story told on a coin that resonates today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576049/original/file-20240215-17705-r7jti2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy was enshrined in Roman currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This silver denarius, minted <a href="https://numismatics.org/crro/id/rrc-292.1">over 2,000 years ago</a>, is hardly the most attractive Roman coin. And yet, the coin is vital evidence for the early stages of a political struggle that culminated in Caesar’s assassination and the fall of the Roman Republic.</p>
<p>I first encountered this coin while <a href="https://history.iastate.edu/directory/david-hollander/">studying Roman history</a> in graduate school. Its unusual design gave me pause – this one depicted figures walking across a narrow bridge and dropping something into a box. I moved on after learning it depicted voting, reasoning that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah06338">Roman mint officials</a> occasionally made idiosyncratic choices.</p>
<p>But as voting access evolves in the U.S., the political importance of this centuries-old coin seems more compelling. It turns out that efforts to regulate voting access go way back.</p>
<h2>Roman voting</h2>
<p>Voting was a core feature of the Roman Republic and a <a href="https://archive.org/details/worldofcitizenin0000nico">regular activity for politically active citizens</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah18141">Men, and only men</a>, could vote in multiple elections and legislative assemblies each year. So why would P. Licinius Nerva, the official responsible for this coin, choose to depict such a banal activity? </p>
<p>The answer lies in voting procedures that sometimes heavily favored elites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Panoramic view of ancient Roman columns and buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Roman Forum was a common site of political activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_romanum_6k_(5760x2097).jpg">BeBo86/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah20037.pub2">comitia centuriata</a>, the assembly that elected Rome’s chief magistrates, each citizen was a member of a voting unit based on wealth. Unit members voted to decide which candidates they collectively supported, like U.S. presidential elections where it’s not the popular vote but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-electoral-college-exist-and-how-does-it-work-5-essential-reads-149502">number of Electoral College votes</a> that determines the winner. </p>
<p>The wealthiest Romans controlled more than half of the voting units in this assembly. The poorest citizens had just one voting unit; since they voted last, and only during uncertain outcomes, they might not vote at all. </p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens voted orally and openly. Elites could directly observe and potentially intimidate poorer voters.</p>
<h2>Regulating Roman electioneering</h2>
<p>That all began to change in 139 BCE when the Roman politician <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.35">Aulus Gabinius passed a law</a> mandating written ballots for elections. Two further laws, <a href="https://archive.org/details/romanvotingassem0000tayl">both passed in the 130s</a>, extended the use of written ballots to legislative voting and most trial juries.</p>
<p>These written ballots made it more difficult for elites to influence voting but not impossible. Each unit formed its own line leading to a bridge where voters received ballots to mark and <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb01565.0001.001">place in a basket</a>. Elites could station themselves or their allies on the bridge to encourage people to vote the “right” way.</p>
<p>The reverse of Nerva’s coin depicts the reception and deposit of the ballot, the first and last moments of a voter’s time on the bridge. The absence of nonvoter figures on the coin, apart from a poll worker, is key to understanding its message.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bronzed silver coin with one figure receiving a ballot from another figure while another deposits a ballot in a box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reverse of a Roman silver coin minted by P. Nerva, circa 113 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 119 BCE, a young politician named Gaius Marius <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0007.tlg031.perseus-eng1:4.2">passed a law</a> that <a href="https://www.loebclassics.com/view/marcus_tullius_cicero-de_legibus/1928/pb_LCL213.505.xml">narrowed voting bridge widths</a>, allowing voters to mark their ballots without elites looking over their shoulders. Nerva’s coin, minted six or seven years later, almost certainly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511584015">refers back to this law</a>. By showing only voters on the bridge, Nerva was celebrating an important voting rights victory and announcing his allegiance to Marius.</p>
<p>The aristocrats never managed to repeal the voting laws and were <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.33">still grumbling about them</a> even as the Republic collapsed.</p>
<p>The long Roman struggle over voting procedures provides a useful and perhaps even comforting reminder. <a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/">Changing state voting laws</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/">election lawsuits</a> are nothing new. The fight over voter access to the ballot is an inevitable side effect of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David B. Hollander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fighting for voter access is an inevitable part of any democracy, from ancient Rome to the US today. Roman legislators were able to thwart elite political sway by introducing written ballots.David B. Hollander, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230302024-02-12T15:58:31Z2024-02-12T15:58:31ZPakistan election results in political instability when the country needed it least<p>Shock results in Pakistan’s national election threaten to see the country free-fall into political crisis. Days after the election, it remains unclear which party (or parties) will form a government and who the next prime minister will be.</p>
<p>Independent candidates affiliated to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice/PTI), the party of former prime minister, Imran Khan, won 95 of 264 seats. This puts it in the lead, ahead of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) in second place. However, with 75 seats, PML-N is the largest single party in the national assembly.</p>
<p>It’s fair to say Pakistan doesn’t have a brilliant track record when it comes to putting democracy into action. No elected prime minister has <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/9/factbox-no-pakistani-prime-minister-has-completed-a-full-tenure">completed</a> a full term in office. The country has been under military rule for nearly as much time as it has been under a civilian government. And the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-a-historical-trail-of-pakistans-powerful-military-enterprise-205749">military</a> has long directed the country’s politics from behind the scenes. </p>
<p>Allegations that the election was likely to be <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/election-engineering-is-pakistans-february-vote-already-rigged">rigged</a> were rife months before voters headed to the polls on February 8. Khan, who remains widely popular, was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20231231-imprisoned-former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-barred-from-election-candidacy">barred from running</a> in the election and is currently in prison having been sentenced on three separate occasions in recent weeks. Many candidates for his party were imprisoned or otherwise <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/07/harassed-constantly-imran-khans-party-fights-state-pressure-in-pakistan-election#:%7E:text=Dozens%20of%20senior%20PTI%20leaders,posters%20are%20systematically%20torn%20down.">harassed</a> and hounded out of politics. </p>
<p>The Election Commission of Pakistan also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-imran-khans-party-loses-cricket-bat-electoral-symbol-2024-01-14/">banned</a> PTI candidates from using the electoral symbol of a cricket bat. They had to stand as independents with individual symbols, a sure impediment in a country of large rural constituencies where high numbers of voters <a href="https://mofept.gov.pk/ProjectDetail/NjQ4ZTg2NjItOWM2NC00Y2IxLTkzMDgtMjU2OTFhMjA4NzNh#:%7E:text=The%20current%20literacy%20rate%20of,is%20illiterate%20in%20the%20country.">cannot read</a>.</p>
<p>As voting got underway, the interior ministry <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68226228">suspended</a> mobile calls and data services – a move it said was essential to “maintain law and order” after a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68226516">string of terrorist attacks</a> in the days leading up to the election. The internet blackout meant it was not possible for many urban voters to book taxis to go and cast their vote or coordinate plans with other family members. Violence on election day itself left <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-vote-counts-drags-after-election-marred-by-attacks-outages-2024-02-09/">28 people dead</a>.</p>
<h2>Close contest</h2>
<p>Once the results started trickling in, independent candidates aligned to PTI were out ahead. There were then significant delays in the processing and announcing of further results, leading to fears that the outcome would be <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1755704058155765903">manipulated by the military</a> who PTI supporters feared were intent on suppressing Khan’s party. </p>
<p>Despite the military’s interference, the elections have resulted in political uncertainty. Behind the scenes, Sharif and his PML-N is negotiating power-sharing with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People Party (PPP). He is also hoping to co-opt some of Khan’s PTI-backed candidates, and is showing some <a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/2456138/pti-backed-independent-defects-to-pml-n">success</a>.</p>
<p>If he manages to put together a coalition, Sharif will come to power with much baggage. He was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/28/pakistani-court-disqualifies-pm-nawaz-sharif-from-office">dismissed as prime minister</a> in 2017 over corruption allegations – and accusations of nepotism have, in the past, landed both he and his daughter Maryam in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/06/former-pakistani-leader-nawaz-sharif-sentenced-to-10-years-in-jail">prison</a>. </p>
<p>The army, who many believe selected Sharif as their man, seem to have weighed the baggage and decided to hedge their bet – a wager they may be coming to regret. The Pakistan military is often referred to as the army that has never won a war and never lost an election: 2024 may have disrupted that.</p>
<h2>Stability is unlikely</h2>
<p>Pakistan has precedence for not honouring the will of the electorate. In December 1970, at the country’s first direct national election, the Awami League won 167 out of 169 seats in East Pakistan, while The PPP won 87 out of 138 seats in West Pakistan. These results meant the Awami League had won an outright majority to govern the whole of Pakistan. </p>
<p>However, the national assembly was postponed, leading to protests, a civil war and eventually to a national split and the end of the bifurcated era. East Pakistan became Bangladesh and West Pakistan simply became Pakistan. </p>
<p>Over half a century later, it is unlikely that Khan will stay quiet if his party is denied power. He enjoys, for now, the enduring popular support of Pakistan’s 128 million voters. And Khan has managed to shift the zeitgeist, leading to the unprecedented open criticism of Pakistan’s all-powerful military. </p>
<p>But the country’s political uncertainty comes at a time of severe economic crisis. Strong and stable leadership is required to steer Pakistan’s struggling economy. </p>
<h2>Pakistan’s economy is in crisis</h2>
<p>Figures released by Pakistan’s <a href="https://www.pbs.gov.pk/">Bureau of Statistics</a> in January 2024 revealed that inflation was nearly 30% higher than at the same point the previous year. The <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1797445">cost of essentials</a> such as wheat, sugar and vegetables are now unaffordable for many ordinary people whose wages are being stretched to breaking point. </p>
<p>The number of people living in poverty in Pakistan has climbed to <a href="https://pakistanaffairs.pk/2023/10/03/the-world-bank-estimates-that-the-poverty-rate-in-pakistan-will-reach-39-4-in-fy23/">nearly 40%</a>. And price hikes for electricity and fuel in September 2023 led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/sep/05/pakistan-uproar-violent-protests-soaring-fuel-electricity-prices">protests</a>, with thousands taking to the streets and burning their electricity bills. </p>
<p>On top of this, Pakistan will have to repay its <a href="https://indiafirstepaper.com/2023/04/07/pakistan-must-repay-external-debt-of-us77-5-billion-within-3-years/">substantial external debt</a> – US$77.5 billion (£61.4 billion) over the next three years, with a currency that is depleted of value. In August 2023, Pakistan’s rupee fell to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/pakistan-rupee-slumps-to-record-low-amid-growing-headwinds">record low</a> of 299 to the dollar.</p>
<p>With increased economic hardship and little opportunity at home, many Pakistanis are making perilous journeys out of Pakistan. Young people especially are being driven to find a better life elsewhere, sometimes with deadly consequences. In June 2023, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/18/pakistanis-were-forced-below-deck-on-refugee-boat-in-greece-disaster">more than 300</a> Pakistani migrants died when an overcrowded fishing vessel sank off the coast of Greece.</p>
<p>Pakistan’s new leader will need new ideas on how to get their country out of economic trouble and improve the lives of his countrymen. Whoever it may be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy.</span></em></p>Days after the election, it remains unclear who the the next prime minister will be.Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer: Politics, History and International Relations, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231602024-02-08T20:58:13Z2024-02-08T20:58:13ZFCC bans robocalls using deepfake voice clones − but AI-generated disinformation still looms over elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574478/original/file-20240208-22-rxy9j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=532%2C1022%2C3864%2C2116&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The FCC is responding to the threat of deepfakes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MediaOwnershipRules/12da8ef2697340328725c4bae9edd719/photo">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Federal Communications Commission on Feb. 8, 2024, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fcc-elections-artificial-intelligence-robocalls-regulations-a8292b1371b3764916461f60660b93e6">outlawed robocalls</a> that use voices generated by artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>The 1991 <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/senate-bill/1462">Telephone Consumer Protection Act</a> bans artificial voices in robocalls. The FCC’s <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-24-17A1.pdf">Feb. 8 ruling</a> declares that AI-generated voices, including clones of real people’s voices, are artificial and therefore banned by law. </p>
<p>The move follows on the heels of a robocall on Jan. 21, 2024, from what sounded like President Joe Biden. The <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-429524614/fake-joe-biden-robocall-nh">call had Biden’s voice</a> urging voters inclined to support Biden and the Democratic Party not to participate in New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 GOP primary election. The call <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/politics/nh-primary-explainer-how-vote.html">falsely implied</a> that a registered Democrat could vote in the Republican primary and that a voter who voted in the primary would be ineligible to vote in the general election in November.</p>
<p>The call, two days before the primary, appears to have been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-biden-ai-deepfake-robocall-f3469ceb6dd613079092287994663db5">an artificial intelligence deepfake</a>. It also appears to have been <a href="https://www.doj.nh.gov/news/2024/20240122-voter-robocall.html">an attempt to discourage voting</a>. </p>
<p>The FCC and the New Hampshire attorney general’s office are investigating the call. On Feb. 6, 2024, New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella <a href="https://www.doj.nh.gov/news/2024/20240206-voter-robocall-update.html">identified two Texas companies</a>, Life Corp. and Lingo Telecom, as the source and transmitter, respectively, of the call.</p>
<h2>Injecting confusion</h2>
<p>Robocalls in elections are nothing new and <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/rules-political-campaign-calls-and-texts">not illegal</a>; many are simply efforts to get out the vote. But they have also been used in <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/michigan-ag-files-felony-charges-again-jack-burkman-jacob-wohl-for-alleged-voter-suppression-scheme">voter suppression</a> campaigns. Compounding this problem in this case is the application of AI to clone Biden’s voice.</p>
<p>In a media ecosystem full of noise, scrambled signals such as deepfake robocalls make it virtually impossible to tell facts from fakes.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wZYIwHqDJBg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The New Hampshire attorney general’s office is investigating the call.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, a number of companies have popped up online <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2023/03/chatbots-deepfakes-voice-clones-ai-deception-sale">offering impersonation as a service</a>. For users like you and me, it’s as easy as selecting a politician, celebrity or executive like Joe Biden, Donald Trump or Elon Musk from a menu and typing a script of what you want them to appear to say, and the website creates the deepfake automatically.</p>
<p>Though the audio and video output is usually choppy and stilted, when the audio is delivered via a robocall it’s very believable. You could easily think you are hearing a recording of Joe Biden, but really it’s machine-made misinformation.</p>
<h2>Context is key</h2>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yu4Ew7gAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">media and disinformation scholar</a>. In 2019, information scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WHtDxZsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Brit Paris</a> and I <a href="https://datasociety.net/library/deepfakes-and-cheap-fakes/#">studied how generative adversarial networks</a> – what most people today think of as AI – would transform the ways institutions assess evidence and make decisions when judging realistic-looking audio and video manipulation. What we found was that no single piece of media is reliable on its face; rather, context matters for making an interpretation.</p>
<p>When it comes to AI-enhanced disinformation, the believability of deepfakes hinges on where you see or hear them or who shares them. Without a valid and confirmed source vouching for it as a fact, a deepfake might be interesting or funny but will never pass muster in a courtroom. However, deepfakes can still be damaging when used in efforts to suppress the vote or shape public opinion on divisive issues. </p>
<p>AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because unmasking the source requires tracking the trail of metadata, which is the data about a piece of media. How this is done varies, depending on the method of distribution: robocalls, social media, email, text message or websites. Right now, research on audio and video manipulation is more difficult because many big tech companies have shut down access to their application programming interfaces, which make it possible for researchers to collect data about social media, and the companies have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/tech-companies-are-laying-off-their-ethics-and-safety-teams-.html">laid off their trust and safety teams</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1749521325394129296"}"></div></p>
<h2>Timely, accurate, local knowledge</h2>
<p>In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation. People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations. </p>
<p>It’s also important for the public to understand what new audio and visual manipulation technology is capable of. Now that the technology has become widely available, and with a pivotal election year ahead, the fake Biden robocall is only the latest of what is likely to be a series of AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns, even though these calls are now explicitly illegal. </p>
<p>I believe society needs to learn to venerate what I call TALK: timely, accurate, local knowledge. I believe that it’s important to design social media systems that value timely, accurate, local knowledge over disruption and divisiveness.</p>
<p>It’s also important to make it more difficult for disinformers to profit from undermining democracy. For example, the malicious use of technology to suppress voter turnout should be vigorously investigated by federal and state law enforcement authorities. </p>
<p>While deepfakes may catch people by surprise, they should not catch us off guard, no matter how slow the truth is compared with the speed of disinformation.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Jan. 23, 2024.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223160/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joan Donovan is on the board of Free Press and the founder of the Critical Internet Studies Institute.</span></em></p>Deepfake technology is widely available, and a pivotal election year lies ahead. The FCC banned AI robocalls, but AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns remain a threat.Joan Donovan, Assistant Professor of Journalism and Emerging Media Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217442024-01-23T20:41:07Z2024-01-23T20:41:07ZFake Biden robocall to New Hampshire voters highlights how easy it is to make deepfakes − and how hard it is to defend against AI-generated disinformation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570887/original/file-20240123-23-3sxfsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5343%2C3559&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The fake robocall urged Democratic voters in New Hampshire not to vote in the Jan. 23, 2024, primary election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/campaign-signs-asking-voters-to-write-in-president-joe-news-photo/1945939451">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An updated version of this article was published on Feb. 8, 2024. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fcc-bans-robocalls-using-deepfake-voice-clones-but-ai-generated-disinformation-still-looms-over-elections-223160">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p>An unknown number of New Hampshire voters received a phone call on Jan. 21, 2024, from what sounded like President Joe Biden. A <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-429524614/fake-joe-biden-robocall-nh">recording contains Biden’s voice</a> urging voters inclined to support Biden and the Democratic Party not to participate in New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 GOP primary election.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Republicans have been trying to push nonpartisan and Democratic voters to participate in their primary. What a bunch of malarkey. We know the value of voting Democratic when our votes count. It’s important that you save your vote for the November election. We’ll need your help in electing Democrats up and down the ticket. Voting this Tuesday only enables the Republicans in their quest to elect Donald Trump again. Your vote makes a difference in November, not this Tuesday. If you would like to be removed from future calls, please press two now.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The call <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/politics/nh-primary-explainer-how-vote.html">falsely implies</a> that a registered Democrat could vote in the Republican primary and that a voter who votes in the primary would be ineligible to vote in the general election in November. The state does allow unregistered voters to participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary.</p>
<p>The call, two days before the primary, appears to have been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-biden-ai-deepfake-robocall-f3469ceb6dd613079092287994663db5">an artificial intelligence deepfake</a>. It also appears to have been <a href="https://www.doj.nh.gov/news/2024/20240122-voter-robocall.html">an attempt to discourage voting</a>. Biden is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4418655-biden-new-hampshire-democratic-primary-ballot/">not on the ballot</a> because of a dispute between the Democratic National Committee and New Hampshire Democrats about New Hampshire’s position in the primary schedule, but there is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/23/1226172266/biden-nh-write-in-ballot">a write-in campaign</a> for Biden.</p>
<p>Robocalls in elections are nothing new and not illegal; many are simply efforts to get out the vote. But they have also been used in <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/michigan-ag-files-felony-charges-again-jack-burkman-jacob-wohl-for-alleged-voter-suppression-scheme">voter suppression</a> campaigns. Compounding this problem in this case is what I believe to be the application of AI to clone Biden’s voice.</p>
<p>In a media ecosystem full of noise, scrambled signals such as deepfake robocalls make it virtually impossible to tell facts from fakes.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wZYIwHqDJBg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The New Hampshire attorney general’s office is investigating the call.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recently, a number of companies have popped up online <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2023/03/chatbots-deepfakes-voice-clones-ai-deception-sale">offering impersonation as a service</a>. For users like you and me, it’s as easy as selecting a politician, celebrity or executive like Joe Biden, Donald Trump or Elon Musk from a menu and typing a script of what you want them to appear to say, and the website creates the deepfake automatically. Though the audio and video output is usually choppy and stilted, when the audio is delivered via a robocall it’s very believable. You could easily think you are hearing a recording of Joe Biden, but really it’s machine-made misinformation.</p>
<h2>Context is key</h2>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yu4Ew7gAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">media and disinformation scholar</a>. In 2019, information scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WHtDxZsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Brit Paris</a> and I <a href="https://datasociety.net/library/deepfakes-and-cheap-fakes/#">studied how generative adversarial networks</a> – what most people today think of as AI – would transform the ways institutions assess evidence and make decisions when judging realistic-looking audio and video manipulation. What we found was that no single piece of media is reliable on its face; rather, context matters for making an interpretation.</p>
<p>When it comes to AI-enhanced disinformation, the believability of deepfakes hinges on where you see or hear it or who shares it. Without a valid and confirmed source vouching for it as a fact, a deepfake might be interesting or funny but will never pass muster in a courtroom. However, deepfakes can still be damaging when used in efforts to suppress the vote or shape public opinion on divisive issues. </p>
<p>AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because unmasking the source requires tracking the trail of metadata, which is the data about a piece of media. How this is done varies, depending on the method of distribution: robocalls, social media, email, text message or websites. Right now, research on audio and video manipulation is more difficult because many big tech companies have shut down access to their application programming interfaces, which make it possible for researchers to collect data about social media, and the companies have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/tech-companies-are-laying-off-their-ethics-and-safety-teams-.html">laid off their trust and safety teams</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1749521325394129296"}"></div></p>
<h2>Timely, accurate, local knowledge</h2>
<p>In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation. People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations. </p>
<p>It’s also important for the public to understand what new audio and visual manipulation technology is capable of. Now that the technology has become widely available, and with a pivotal election year ahead, the fake Biden robocall is only the latest of what is likely to be a series of AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns.</p>
<p>I believe society needs to learn to venerate what I call TALK: timely, accurate, local knowledge. I believe that it’s important to design social media systems that value timely, accurate, local knowledge over disruption and divisiveness.</p>
<p>It’s also important to make it more difficult for disinformers to profit from undermining democracy. For example, the malicious use of technology to suppress voter turnout should be vigorously investigated by federal and state law enforcement authorities. </p>
<p>While deepfakes may catch people by surprise, they should not catch us off guard, no matter how slow the truth is compared with the speed of disinformation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joan Donovan is on the board of Free Press and the founder of the Critical Internet Studies Institute.</span></em></p>Deepfake technology is widely available, and a pivotal election year lies ahead. The fake Biden robocall is likely to be just the latest of a series of AI-enhanced disinformation campaigns.Joan Donovan, Assistant Professor of Journalism and Emerging Media Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145132023-09-29T12:24:47Z2023-09-29T12:24:47ZUS Supreme Court refuses to hear Alabama’s request to keep separate and unequal political districts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550729/original/file-20230927-19-k90mbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1459%2C308%2C3947%2C3291&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall stands in front of the U.S. Supreme Court building on Oct 4, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/attorney-general-of-alabama-steve-marshall-speaks-to-news-photo/1430435175?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-alabamas-bid-use-congressional-map-just-one-majo-rcna105688">second time</a> in three months, the U.S. Supreme Court has rebuffed Alabama’s attempts to advance its legislature’s congressional maps that federal courts have ruled harm Black voters.</p>
<p>The court had first <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">rejected the maps</a> in its stunning June 8, 2023, decision that upheld the Voting Rights Act of 1965. But in an act of defiance, Alabama lawmakers resubmitted maps that didn’t include what the court had urged them to do – create a second political district in which Black voters could reasonably be expected to choose a candidate of their choice. </p>
<p>On Sept. 26, the court put those Alabama plans on hold and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/26/1200906844/supreme-court-alabama-voting-case">refused to stop</a> a three-judge federal court panel’s plan to choose the maps Alabama will use in its 2024 elections from among a set of three maps drawn by a court-appointed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/politics/alabama-redistricting-special-master-map-proposals/index.html">special master</a>. </p>
<p>One of those maps includes the creation of a second congressional district that has a majority of Black voters, and the other two would increase the percentage of Black voters in an existing district to give them a reasonable chance of electing candidates of their own choosing. </p>
<p>Currently, only one of Alabama’s seven congressional districts is majority Black, although Black residents make up 27% of the state’s population and <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/merrill-v-milligan-faq/">voting rights advocates</a> argued that their numbers suggest they should control at least two of the state’s congressional districts. </p>
<p>On Sept. 5, the panel of three <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23936075-milligan-2023-09-05-order">federal judges</a> rebuked the Alabama Legislature when it ruled that the state’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/alabama-redistricting-ruling-black-population-affd7b662f65b0b28da42fb88f72207e">proposed voting districts</a> failed to create the second Black district. </p>
<p>The federal judges wrote they were “deeply troubled” that Alabama lawmakers submitted a new plan that did not adhere to previous court rulings, including <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">one issued</a> by the U.S. Supreme Court on June 8.</p>
<p>“The law requires the creation of an additional district that affords Black Alabamians, like everyone else, a fair and reasonable opportunity to elect candidates of their choice,” the three judges wrote, adding that the state’s new plan “plainly fails to do so.” </p>
<h2>A surprising decision to protect Black voters</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/05/1193749552/alabama-congressional-map">For the 2024 elections</a>, the federal panel of judges assigned a special master to draw three potential maps that each include two districts where Black voters have a realistic opportunity of electing their preferred candidate. Those redistricting proposals were submitted on Sept. 25, 2023.</p>
<p>Alabama officials have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/us/politics/alabama-congressional-map.html">denied any wrongdoing</a> and said their proposed voting districts, including one where the percentage of Black voters jumped from about 30% to 40%, were in compliance with recent federal court rulings. </p>
<p>After losing its latest appeal on Sept. 26, <a href="https://www.wsfa.com/2023/09/26/alabamas-ag-reacts-supreme-courts-redistricting-map-decision/">Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall</a>, a Republican, still argued that the maps the state has drawn should have been upheld by the Supreme Court.</p>
<p>“It is now clear that none of the maps proposed by Republican super-majorities had any chance of success,” <a href="https://whnt.com/news/alabama-news/alabama-ag-steve-marshalls-says-map-fight-continues-despite-supreme-court-loss/">Marshall said in a statement</a>. “Treating voters as individuals would not do. Instead, our elected representatives and our voters must apparently be reduced to skin color alone.”</p>
<p>At issue in the Alabama case is whether the power of Black voters was diluted by dividing them into districts where white voters dominate. </p>
<p>After the 2020 census, the Republican-controlled Alabama Legislature <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/supreme-court-rules-favor-black-142654715.html">redrew the state’s seven congressional districts</a> to include only one in which Black voters would likely be able to elect a candidate of their choosing. </p>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">surprising ruling on June 8</a>, the Supreme Court jettisoned Republican-drawn congressional districts in Alabama that a federal district court in Alabama had ruled in 2022 discriminated against Black voters and <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/election-law-explainers/section-2-of-the-voting-rights-act-vote-dilution-and-vote-deprivation/">violated Section 2</a> of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>.</p>
<p>The court relied on a nearly 40-year-old, seminal case, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1985/83-1968">Thornburg v. Gingles</a>, that determined a state should typically draw a majority-minority district if <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Thornburg_v._Gingles">three conditions</a> are met: </p>
<p>First, if the racial minority can be a majority in a reasonably drawn district. </p>
<p>Second, if the racial minority is politically cohesive, meaning that its members tend to vote together for the same candidates.</p>
<p>And third, if the racial minority faces <a href="https://www.mississippifreepress.org/33699/alabama-violated-black-voters-rights-u-s-supreme-court-rules">bloc voting by a racial majority</a> that tends to defeat the racial minority’s candidate of choice. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Five men and four women are wearing black robes as they pose for a portrait." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508673/original/file-20230207-29-owvlbb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Supreme Court, from left in front row: Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, Samuel Alito and Elena Kagan; and from left in back row: Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Ketanji Brown Jackson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-states-supreme-court-associate-justice-sonia-news-photo/1431388794?phrase=us%20supreme%20clarence%20thomas&adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All three conditions were true in Alabama, and the totality of the circumstances suggested minority voters did not participate equally in the political process in the area.</p>
<p>In his opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts explained how racially motivated voter suppression in the century after the Civil War led to the initial passage of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>. </p>
<p>While the Supreme Court did not explicitly order the state to create a second majority-Black congressional district, Roberts made it clear how he viewed the long history of racist voter suppression in Alabama – and what factors should weigh prominently in the state’s new political map.</p>
<p>“A district is not equally open,” Roberts wrote, “when minority voters face – unlike their majority peers – bloc voting along racial lines, arising against the backdrop of substantial racial discrimination within the State, that renders a minority vote unequal to a vote by a nonminority voter.” </p>
<p>Given the Supreme Court’s recent history of restricting rights protected under the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965 – and <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/john-roberts-voting-rights-act-121222/">Roberts’ past opposition</a> – Roberts’ opinion surprised many civil and voting rights advocates. </p>
<p>“States shouldn’t let race be the primary factor in deciding how to draw boundaries, but it should be a consideration,” Roberts wrote. “The line we have drawn is between consciousness and predominance.”</p>
<h2>What Alabama did</h2>
<p>In its case before the federal panel, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/alabama-redistricting-ruling-black-population-affd7b662f65b0b28da42fb88f72207e">state argued </a> that its proposed map complied with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and the Supreme Court decision.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white poster urges Black residents to vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546522/original/file-20230905-29-v7yray.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poster encouraging African Americans to vote in Selma, Ala., during the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vote-or-die-headline-on-a-poster-to-encourage-african-news-photo/1225712000?adppopup=true">Barry Lewis/InPictures via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>State lawyers <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/05/court-throws-out-alabama-gop-congressional-map-for-violating-voting-rights-act-00113962">further argued</a> that the Legislature was not required to create a second majority-Black district if doing so would require ignoring traditional redistricting principles, such as keeping communities of interest together.</p>
<p>In its decisions on Alabama’s redistricting, the Supreme Court upheld laws that were designed to protect minority voting power for the last nearly four decades. </p>
<p>The same is true with the three-judge court’s ruling on Sept. 5.</p>
<p>It reaffirmed the legal doctrine that requires jurisdictions to draw majority-minority districts in a narrow set of circumstances in which failing to do would leave minority voters unable to protect their interests through their voting power. </p>
<p>Given Alabama’s long-standing history of suppressing the votes of its Black citizens, the Supreme Court still may not have written its last word on race and redistricting. The court is scheduled in October 2023 to hear a similar case involving <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/15/us/politics/supreme-court-south-carolina-voting-map.html">South Carolina’s voting districts</a>. </p>
<p><em>This story has been updated from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/alabamas-defiant-new-voting-map-rejected-by-federal-court-after-republicans-ignored-the-supreme-courts-directive-to-add-a-second-majority-black-house-district-207449">original version</a> published on Sept. 6, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry L. Chambers Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Since 2020, Alabama lawmakers have failed to draw political districts that give Black voters an equal chance of selecting political candidates that represent their interests.Henry L. Chambers Jr., Professor of Law, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076782023-06-16T20:30:13Z2023-06-16T20:30:13ZJuneteenth, Jim Crow and how the fight of one Black Texas family to make freedom real offers lessons for Texas lawmakers trying to erase history from the classroom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532238/original/file-20230615-15-utcvwa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C166%2C1791%2C1011&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joshua Houston leads a Juneteenth Parade in Huntsville, Texas, in a photo circa 1900.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.samhoustonmemorialmuseum.com/">Sam Houston Memorial Museum and Republic of Texas Presidential Library</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The news was startling. </p>
<p>On June 19, 1865, two months after the U.S. Civil War ended, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/news/articles/juneteenth-original-document">Union Gen. Gordon Granger</a> walked onto the balcony at Ashton Villa in Galveston, Texas, and announced to the people of the state that “all slaves are free.” </p>
<p>As local plantation owners lamented the loss of their most valuable property, <a href="https://www.galvestonhistory.org/news/juneteenth-and-general-order-no-3">Black Texans celebrated</a> Granger’s Juneteenth announcement with singing, dancing and feasting. The <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/slavery">182,566 enslaved African Americans in Texas</a> had finally won their freedom. </p>
<p>One of them was <a href="https://easttexashistory.org/items/show/10?tour=8&index=0">Joshua Houston</a>. </p>
<p>He had long served as the enslaved servant of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-race-and-ethnicity-houston-slavery-sam-houston-6ff3a0d8700841c58729bcaa0848c8b3">Gen. Sam Houston</a>, the most well-known military and political leader in Texas.</p>
<p>Joshua Houston lived about 120 miles north of Galveston when he learned of Granger’s proclamation. </p>
<p>It was read aloud at the local Methodist Church in Huntsville, Texas, by <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/gregory-edgar-m">Union Gen. Edgar M. Gregory</a>, the assistant commissioner for the <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/freedmens-bureau">Freedmen’s Bureau in Texas</a>.</p>
<p>If Juneteenth meant anything, it meant at least that Joshua Houston and his family were free.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gray haired black man in the center wearing glasses is sitting down and surrounded by members of his family." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532444/original/file-20230616-17-baca9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joshua Houston and his family in October 1898.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of the Sam Houston Memorial Museum and Republic of Texas Presidential Library, Huntsville, Texas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there was more too. </p>
<p>The promise of freedom meant that more work needed to be done. Families needed to be reunited. Land needed to be secured. Children needed to be educated. </p>
<p>Indeed, the radical promise of Juneteenth is embodied in the community activism of Joshua Houston and the educational career of his son Samuel Walker Houston. </p>
<h2>The violent white reaction to Black political power</h2>
<p>Within a year of Granger’s proclamation, Houston had established a blacksmith shop near the Huntsville town square and moved his family into a two-story house on the adjoining lot.</p>
<p>He helped found the Union Church, the first Black-owned institution in the city, as well as a freedmen’s school to begin educating African American children. </p>
<p>In 1878 and 1882, a Republican coalition of Black and white voters opposed to conservative Democratic rule elected Houston as the county’s first Black county commissioner, a powerful position in local governance. </p>
<p>Despite this dramatic turn of events, Houston’s political story was hardly unique. </p>
<p>In the two decades following emancipation, 52 Black men served in the state Legislature or the state’s constitutional conventions. </p>
<p>But that number had fallen to two by 1882. </p>
<p>Opposition to Black freedom had been a powerful force in the state’s political culture since emancipation. </p>
<p>Armstead Barrett, a former slave in Huntsville, recalled in 1937 that an enraged white man had reacted to Granger’s Juneteenth order by <a href="https://www.studythepast.com/walkercountyslavenarratives/Armstead%20Barrett.pdf">riding past a celebrating Black woman and murdering her with his sword</a>. </p>
<p>In 1871, the violence continued when the white citizens of Huntsville stormed the county courthouse and aided the escape of three men who had <a href="https://lynchingintexas.org/items/browse/">lynched freedman Sam Jenkins</a>.</p>
<p>Later, in the 1880s, <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/civil-rights#:%7E:text=In%20the%201880s%2C%20White%20men,experienced%20similar%20forms%20of%20brutality.">attacks on Black elected officials</a>, their white political allies and Black voters escalated dramatically.</p>
<p>In the early 1900s, changes in state election laws, including the introduction of the poll tax, effectively <a href="https://txwf.org/minority-voter-suppression-jim-crow-laws-in-texas/">disenfranchised most Black voters</a> and many poor whites as well. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=w8QIEAAAQBAJ&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&lpg=PR1&dq=race%20and%20class%20in%20texas%20politics&pg=PA24#v=onepage&q&f=false">Voter participation dropped</a> from roughly 85% at the high tide of Texas populism in 1896 to roughly 35% when the poll tax became effective in 1904.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://lrl.texas.gov/legeleaders/members/memberdisplay.cfm?memberID=3580">Robert Lloyd Smith</a> was the last Black legislator for nearly 70 years when he finished his term in 1897. </p>
<p>That wall of white supremacy at the state Capitol would not crack again until 1966, when <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act#:%7E:text=This%20act%20was%20signed%20into,as%20a%20prerequisite%20to%20voting.">federal voting rights legislation</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/ten-voting-rights-cases-that-shaped-history/">Supreme Court rulings</a> nullified <a href="https://www.tpr.org/podcast/texas-matters/2021-10-19/how-texas-used-multi-member-districts-to-weaken-minority-voting-power">schemes</a> to deny African Americans the ballot. </p>
<p>These changes enabled the election of Black officials such as <a href="https://www.humanitiestexas.org/programs/tx-originals/list/barbara-jordan">Barbara Jordan</a>, the first African American woman to serve in the Texas Senate. </p>
<h2>Like father, like son</h2>
<p>On an unknown date, a few years after Juneteenth, Joshua Houston’s son <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/houston-samuel-walker">Samuel Walker Houston</a> was born free in the bright light of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Reconstruction-United-States-history">Reconstruction</a>.</p>
<p>Although he spent his adulthood in some of the darkest years of <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/freedom-riders-jim-crow-laws/">Jim Crow</a>, he continued his father’s work as an educator and community leader. Following a short stint at Atlanta University in Georgia and Howard University in Washington, D.C., Samuel Walker Houston returned to Huntsville and <a href="https://easttexashistory.org/items/show/2?tour=5&index=0">founded a school</a> in the nearby Galilee community. </p>
<p>Houston’s school was named for him and served as one of the first county training schools for African Americans in Texas. It enrolled students at every level, from first grade through high school, and provided a curriculum based on <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/garvey-washington/">Booker T. Washington’s Tuskegee model</a> of vocational training. </p>
<p>Young women at Houston’s school received training in homemaking, sewing and cooking, while young men learned carpentry, woodworking and mathematics. </p>
<p>By 1922, enrollment at the school had grown to 400 students, and it was recognized by contemporaries as the leading school of East Texas. In the 1930s, Houston’s school was absorbed into Huntsville’s school district, and he became the director of Black education in the county.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="In this black and white image, seven men stand outside a residential-style building with sawhorses and stacked lumber off to the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532442/original/file-20230616-4884-pkw4fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This 1919 photograph shows officials laying the foundation for a new building at the Samuel Walker Houston Training School.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jackson Davis Collection of African American Educational Photographs, Special Collections, University of Virginia Library</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Houston encouraged a practical education for Black Texans, but he also believed that young Texans of all races needed to learn an account of history that differed from the white supremacist narrative that dominated Southern history. </p>
<p>Toward this end, he joined with Joseph Clark and Ramsey Woods, two white professors who pioneered race relations courses at Sam Houston State Teachers College. Together, the group led the <a href="https://shsu-ir.tdl.org/handle/20.500.11875/3760">Texas Commission on Interracial Cooperation</a>’s effort to evaluate Texas public school textbooks during the 1930s. </p>
<p>In an analysis of racial attitudes in state-endorsed textbooks, they found that 74% of books presented a racist view of the past and of Black Americans. Most excluded the scientific, literary and civic contributions of Black people, while mentioning their economic contributions only in the period of slavery before the Civil War.</p>
<p>Instead, the group argued, books designed for both Black and white Texans needed to take the “opportunity … to do simple justice” by including Black history and the “struggle for the exercise” of equal civil, political and legal rights.</p>
<p>White Texans <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/being-texan/state-history-textbook-erases-the-stories-black-hispanic-texans/">refused to adopt a textbook</a> in the 1930s that taught the fundamental equality of the races, or portrayed Reconstruction, as it is now widely understood, as a missed opportunity to establish a more just and egalitarian Texas.</p>
<p>But Houston and his <a href="https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/ethj/vol57/iss2/5/">white counterparts were motivated</a> by the conviction that progress, both for African Americans and for Texas, required a more honest and progressive account of the state and its history. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="In this black and white image, Black men and women are seen marching along a main street while others are watching." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532443/original/file-20230616-27-qg7tn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Juneteenth Parade in Huntsville, Texas, circa 1900.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sam Houston Memorial Museum and Republic of Texas Presidential Library, Huntsville, Texas.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ongoing battle for equality</h2>
<p>Today’s legislative efforts in Texas and elsewhere to <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/15/abbott-critical-race-theory-law/">restrict the teaching</a> of systemic racism in public schools ignore the lessons and realities represented by Joshua and Samuel Walker Houston’s lives. </p>
<p>The argument used for supporting such restrictions is that “divisive concepts” like the history of racism may make some students feel uncomfortable or guilty. </p>
<p>That sort of thinking echoes the same justification provided by Texas lawmakers in 1873, when many argued that the state’s schools must be segregated to ensure “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Dance_of_Freedom/hVLtkG8EA3sC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=peace,%20harmony">the peace, harmony and success of the schools and the good of the whole</a>.” </p>
<p>But the opposite is true. </p>
<p>In reality, the prohibition on teaching the darker chapters of our past creates a segregated history. </p>
<p>Instead, as Samuel Walker Houston recognized, young Texans must have a more honest account of the past and of one another to progress into a unified and egalitarian society.</p>
<p>Texas history is both the story of people who dedicated their lives to the work of advancing freedom and the story of powerful people and forces that stood against it. </p>
<p>One cannot be understood without the other. </p>
<p>Americans cannot appreciate the accomplishments of Joshua and Samuel Walker Houston without examining the vicious realities of Jim Crow society. </p>
<p>The lesson of their lives, and of the Juneteenth holiday, is that freedom is a precious thing that requires constant work to make real.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the formerly enslaved Black people in Texas, Juneteenth meant more than freedom. It meant reuniting families and building schools and developing political power.Jeffrey L. Littlejohn, Professor of History, Sam Houston State UniversityZachary Montz, Lecturer, History Department, Sam Houston State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073892023-06-09T12:30:28Z2023-06-09T12:30:28ZSupreme Court rules in favor of Black voters in Alabama and protects landmark Voting Rights Act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531014/original/file-20230608-29-ocxu6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=783%2C250%2C4776%2C3442&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black marchers in Selma, Ala., demonstrate for voting rights protections on March 6, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-across-the-edmund-pettus-bridge-with-placards-news-photo/1381895648?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a surprising ruling on June 8, 2023, the conservative leaning <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">U.S. Supreme Court</a> threw out Republican-drawn congressional districts in Alabama that a lower court had ruled discriminated against Black voters and <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/election-law-explainers/section-2-of-the-voting-rights-act-vote-dilution-and-vote-deprivation/">violated Section 2</a> of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>. </p>
<p>At issue in the case that was before the court, Allen v. Milligan, was whether <a href="https://time.com/6285832/scotus-alabama-redistricting-case/">the power of Black voters</a> in Alabama was diluted by dividing them into districts where white voters dominate. After the 2020 census, the Republican-controlled Alabama legislature <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/supreme-court-rules-favor-black-142654715.html">redrew the state’s congressional districts</a> to include only one out of seven in which Black voters would likely be able to elect a candidate of their choosing.</p>
<p>Black residents make up about 27% of the state’s population, and <a href="https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/merrill-v-milligan-faq/">voting rights advocates</a> argued that they deserved not one but two political districts. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=566DVVQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Rodney Coates</a> is a sociologist who studies race and ethnicity and has followed efforts by politicians throughout American history to use redistricting to disenfranchise Black voters. The Conversation asked him four questions about the ruling and its implications.</p>
<h2>What does the decision mean for Black voters in Alabama?</h2>
<p>The decision means that Black voters in Alabama, and across the country, will retain <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181002182/supreme-court-voting-rights">the last remaining voter rights protections</a>. Specifically, Alabama lawmakers will need to redraw their legislative districts to include two districts that reflect the Black population. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/26/1026457264/1965-voting-rights-act-supreme-court-john-lewis">The Voting Rights Act of 1965</a> was enacted to prohibit racist practices by Southern states that were used to prevent Black people from voting. Those measures included literacy tests, poll taxes and voter intimidation.</p>
<p>Prior to the law’s passage, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-african-americans/">less than a quarter</a> of voting-age Blacks were registered to vote across the nation. In 1969, that figure had risen to 61%. </p>
<p>The ruling will also set an <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/voting-rights-act-dodges-bullet-at-supreme-court-00101004">important precedent for redistricting cases alleging discrimination</a> as voters and their representatives challenge state maps. Among Democrats there is the belief that the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/06/voting-rights-act-supreme-court-allen-milligan/674342/">ruling will impact</a> pending cases and require Alabama, as well as Louisiana and Georgia, to add new majority-minority districts prior to the next congressional elections.</p>
<h2>Why was this decision considered a surprise?</h2>
<p>The ruling in Allen vs. Milligan was a surprise because of the voting by conservative Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. and Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh with the three liberal justices. </p>
<p>In his opinion for the majority, Roberts traced the importance of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. He explained how racially motivated voter suppression after the Civil War led to the initial passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. </p>
<p>In order to <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/446/55/">avoid creating racially designated legislative districts</a>, Congress established that the electoral process should <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/06/john-roberts-brett-kavanaugh-save-voting-rights-act.html">allow for the equal participation of all racial groups</a>, Roberts wrote in his opinion. </p>
<p>Roberts’ thinking in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">Allen vs. Milligan</a> is radically different from the one he held when he was an attorney serving in the U.S. Department of Justice during the Reagan administration. Then, Roberts <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/06/john-roberts-brett-kavanaugh-save-voting-rights-act.html">wrote 25 memos in opposition to the VRA, specifically in reference to section 2</a>. </p>
<p>Only Roberts knows why his perspective has changed over time. But <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/06/john-roberts-brett-kavanaugh-save-voting-rights-act.html">perhaps Alabama</a> went too far, too fast and was too partisan.</p>
<p>“States shouldn’t let race be the primary factor in deciding how to draw boundaries but it should be a consideration,” Roberts wrote. “The line we have drawn is between consciousness and predominance.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf">Roberts went further</a> by citing the repugnant racial history of Alabama.</p>
<p>Even as the Black population increased to over 27% of the state’s population over the past 30 years, the number of Black districts remained at one, largely because white conservatives have used their control of the state legislature to dilute the strength of Black voters. </p>
<h2>Is the Voting Rights Act still under attack?</h2>
<p>While a breath of fresh air for voting rights activists, this ruling does not mean that <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/republicans-are-set-to-push-mail-ballots-and-other-voting-methods-they-previously-blasted-as/article_875ccdf1-2a76-5b6b-985b-617d8bd28cab.html">white conservatives will cease their attack</a>. </p>
<p>GOP-controlled congressional maps diluting or eliminating Black districts have been drawn in multiple states, including <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/supreme-court-blocks-order-to-create-two-black-congressional-districts-in-louisiana/article_69efb326-f71e-11ec-a6a1-93c41746ba60.html">Louisiana</a>, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/another-motion-is-filed-against-georgia-s-voting-law/ar-AA1bXvPQ">Georgia</a>, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ohio-republicans-disguise-august-ballot-language-to-fool-you-into-eroding-our-democracy-today-in-ohio/ar-AA1bpf0H">Ohio</a> and <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/24/texas-felony-illegal-voting/">Texas</a>. These efforts could significantly alter the 2024 electoral map. </p>
<p>Several lawsuits are currently working their way through the courts across the country in states such as <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-the-supreme-court-ruling-in-alabama-could-mean-for-florida-s-redistricting-suit/ar-AA1cj7vc">Florida</a>, <a href="https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/may/24/second-lawsuit-filed-challenging-arkansas/">Arkansas</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/15/supreme-court-racial-redistricting-case-00096925">South Carolina</a> and <a href="https://www.wxxinews.org/local-news/2023-06-08/appellate-panel-hears-arguments-in-latest-new-york-redistricting-challenge">New York</a>.</p>
<h2>What are the remaining obstacles to full Black voting power?</h2>
<p>Across the country, there has been a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/voting-rights-tracker.html">concerted effort to restrict voting</a> and control the election machinery and even the outcome of these votes.</p>
<p>Dozens of Republican-controlled states have passed a series of laws that will curtail voting of Blacks and many other Americans. </p>
<p>These laws are in Florida, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/supreme-court-backs-landmark-voting-rights-law-strikes-down-alabama-congressional-map/ar-AA1ci4Pw">where registration is harder</a>; <a href="https://omaha.com/eedition/sunrise/articles/voter-id-measure-now-law/article_e92223c6-736c-5ca2-8153-e36e303a2be2.html">in Nebraska</a>, which has enacted more stringent voter identification measures; in <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mississippi-absentee-ballot-law-harms-voters-with-disabilities-lawsuit-says/ar-AA1c2OnJ">Mississippi</a>, which placed restrictions on absentee ballots; and in Georgia, which increased <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/prolific-voter-challenger-nominated-by-gop-to-fulton-elections-board/PESG7SD2XJDFPDHSY7DUUOUKSI/">voter scrutiny by allowing anyone to challenge</a> the qualifications of other voters.</p>
<p>Uncertainty prevails at the state and federal level, and according to Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Steven Horsford, <a href="https://thegrio.com/2023/06/08/black-leaders-supreme-court-voting-rights-alabama/">only a national law</a> aimed at eliminating the various suppression tactics that target Black voters will remedy the situation. </p>
<h2>How do these laws typically affect Black people?</h2>
<p>As many as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-october-2022">42 restrictive voting-rights laws</a> in 21 states have been passed since 2021. </p>
<p>Among these, 33 contain at least one restrictive provision that will impact elections in 20 states. These <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-october-2022">restrictive provisions</a> would make it harder for eligible Blacks to vote.</p>
<p>These laws are being vigorously challenged by groups such as the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-rights/fighting-voter-suppression">ACLU</a>, <a href="https://naacp.org/resources/voter-suppression-and-voter-nullification-laws">NAACP</a>, <a href="https://www.lwv.org/voting-rights/fighting-voter-suppression">League of Women Voters</a>, <a href="https://fairfight.com/voter-suppression-awareness/">Fair Fight Action</a> and the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/20210316/overcoming-unprecedented-southern-voters-battle-against-voter-suppression-intimidation-and">Southern Poverty Law Center</a>, which are mobilizing protests, organizing voters and launching legal challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rodney Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>At a time when state legislatures are enacting laws that restrict who, when and where people can vote, the US Supreme Court ruled to protect voting rights.Rodney Coates, Professor of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995812023-03-06T13:35:55Z2023-03-06T13:35:55ZAmericans remain hopeful about democracy despite fears of its demise – and are acting on that hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513208/original/file-20230302-83-yerkvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C109%2C4311%2C2760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black voters are punishing anti-democratic candidates at the ballot box.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BlackVotersWisconsin/650e7d8af49a4535b74a3851d47c8f99/photo?Query=black%20voters%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=797&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Morry Gash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden will <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/29/joint-statement-between-costa-rica-the-netherlands-the-republic-of-korea-the-republic-of-zambia-and-the-united-states-on-the-announcement-of-the-second-summit-for-democracy/">convene world leaders beginning on March 29, 2023</a>, to discuss the state of democracies around the world.</p>
<p>The Summit for Democracy, a virtual event being co-hosted by the White House, is being <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/">touted as an opportunity</a> to “reflect, listen and learn” with the aim of encouraging “democratic renewal.”</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8LCrZXcAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a>, <a href="https://andrenewright.com/">we have been</a> <a href="https://polisci.la.psu.edu/people/map6814/">doing something</a> very similar. In the fall of 2022 we listened to thousands of U.S. residents about their views on the state of American democracy. What we found was that, despite widespread fears over the future of democracy, many people are also hopeful, and that hope translated into “voting for democracy” by <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2022-12-30/how-democracy-fought-back-in-2022">shunning election result deniers at the polls</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">study</a> – and indeed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/politics/biden-democracy-threat.html">Biden’s stated push for democracy</a> – comes at a unique point in American political history.</p>
<p>As a group, we have decades of experience studying politics and believe that not since the American Civil War has there been so much concern that American democracy, while always a <a href="https://www.loc.gov/loc/lcib/0704/franklin.html">work in progress</a>, is under threat. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/06/06/public-trust-in-government-1958-2022/">Survey trends</a> point to eroding trust in democratic institutions. And in addition to serving as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/03/1069764164/american-democracy-poll-jan-6">direct reminder</a> of our political system’s fragility, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol provoked concern of the potential of <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/11/where-are-we-going-america/">democratic backsliding</a> in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Fears of a failing democracy</h2>
<p>The 2022 midterms were the first nationwide ballot to take place after the Jan. 6 attack. The vote provided a good opportunity to check in with potential U.S. voters over how they viewed the risks to democracy.</p>
<p>As such, in the fall of 2022, the <a href="https://africanamericanresearch.us/">African American Research Collaborative</a> – of which one of us is a member – worked with a team of <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/partners/">partners</a> to create the <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">Midterm Election Voter Poll</a>. In an online and phone survey, we asked more than 12,000 U.S. voters from a variety of backgrounds a series of questions about voting intention and trust in national politics. Respondents were also quizzed over their concern about the state of American democracy.</p>
<p>On a five-point scale ranging from “very” to “not at all,” the survey asked how worried respondents were that: “The political system in the United States is failing and there is a decent chance that we will no longer have a functioning democracy within the next 10 years.”</p>
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<p>Roughly 6 in 10 Americans expressed fear that democracy is in peril, with 35% saying they were “very worried.”</p>
<p>Broken down by race and ethnicity, white Americans were the most concerned, with 64% expressing some worry that democracy is in peril. Black and Latino Americans were slightly less concerned. Asian Americans appeared the least worried, with 55% expressing concern. </p>
<p>Of the 63% of respondents who registered concern, more than half said they were “very worried” that democracy is in trouble and that it may soon come to an end.</p>
<p>Such fragility-of-democracy concerns can have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/my987">self-perpetuating effect</a>; voters’ increasing lack of faith in their system can hasten the collapse in government they fear. </p>
<p>For example, negative attitudes about democracy can also destabilize voting habits – prompting some to skip elections altogether while motivating others to swing back and forth between candidates and political parties from one election to another. This pattern of voting can, in turn, lead to gridlock in government or worse: the election of cynical politicians who are less able – or even willing – to govern. It is a process that former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts described in 2015 as the “self-fulfilling prophesy of ‘<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/the-self-fulfilling-prophecy-of-government-doesnt-work-213375/">government doesn’t work</a>.’” </p>
<h2>Turning hope into action</h2>
<p>But the story that emerged from our survey isn’t all doom and gloom. </p>
<p>In addition to confirming how endangered Americans believe their democracy is, citizens appear hopeful that their political system can recover. When given the prompt: “Overall, as you vote in November 2022, are you mostly feeling …,” more than 40% of the respondents – regardless of race or ethnicity – said they felt “hopeful.” </p>
<p>Indeed, “hope” was by far the most common feeling out of the four emotions that respondents were able to choose from. “Worry” was the second most typical emotion, with 31% of the total sample selecting it, followed by “pride” and “anger.”</p>
<p>Rather than resigning themselves to a lost democracy, the results indicate that voters from a broad array of demographic and political backgrounds feel hopeful that American democracy can overcome the challenges facing the nation.</p>
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<p>Black Americans were among the most hopeful (49%), second only to Asian Americans (55%), while white Americans were the most worried (33%). These racial and ethnic differences are consistent with <a href="https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v8i2.847">recent research</a> on how emotions can shape politics.</p>
<p>The results also make sense in the context of the trajectory of race relations in the U.S. Black people have borne the brunt of what happens when authoritarian forces in this country have prevailed. They have suffered firsthand from anti-democratic actions being used against them, depriving them of the right to vote, for example. Throughout U.S. history, stories of racial progress often reveal a <a href="https://www.matteroffact.tv/what-factors-determine-a-sense-of-belonging-in-america-this-college-professor-crafted-a-study-to-find-out/">struggle to reconcile</a> feelings of hope and worry – particularly when thinking about what America is versus what the nation ought to be.</p>
<p>Such hope in democracy has turned into action. Efforts to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/voting-rights-georgia-activism-us-elections">counter</a> GOP-led attempts to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-push-to-restrict-voting-could-affect-our-elections/">suppress votes</a> are encouraging signs of citizens combating anti-democratic measures, while punishing parties deemed to be pushing them.</p>
<p>Take the example of Georgia, which has “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-georgia-turned-blue/">flipped from Republican to Democrat</a>” in large part because of voting rights activist and Democratic politician Stacey Abrams’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html">tireless mobilization efforts</a>. In the midterm election, GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed among Black voters, winning less of the Black vote than GOP candidates in other states.</p>
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<p>The breaking of the Republican stronghold in Georgia fits with a broader theme of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/01/06/last-night-in-georgia-black-americans-saved-democracy/">Black voters casting ballots to “save democracy</a>,” as scholars writing for the Brookings Institution think tank put it. In rejecting anti-democratic measures – and representatives of the party held responsible – in Georgia, “Black people were the solution for an authentic democracy.”</p>
<p>Black women <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26855823">deserve the most credit</a> here, consistently voting for pro-democracy candidates. Not surprisingly, when broken down by race and gender, our survey shows that Black women are most hopeful (56%), some way ahead of white men (43%), with Black men and white women both at 42%.</p>
<h2>A democracy, to keep for good.</h2>
<p>Democracy has long been a cherished ideal in the U.S. – but one that from the country’s founding was perceived to be fragile. </p>
<p>When asked what sort of political system the Founding Fathers had agreed upon during the <a href="https://www.constitutionfacts.com/us-constitution-amendments/the-constitutional-convention/">Constitutional Convention of 1787</a>, Benjamin Franklin famously replied: “<a href="https://tinyurl.com/2s3dcedy">A republic, if you can keep it</a>.”</p>
<p>While acknowledging that the success of our government isn’t promised, Franklin’s words serve as a reminder that <a href="https://youtu.be/nDg3EsMcsBs">citizens must work relentlessly</a> to maintain and protect what the Constitution provides. What we’ve discovered, both from our survey and from how people voted, is that Americans are sending a clear message that they support democracy, and will fight anti-democratic measures – something that politicians of all parties might benefit from listening to if we want to keep our republic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Block Jr works for the African American Research Collaborative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrene Wright and Mia Angelica Powell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey of more than 12,000 US voters found that Black Americans are among the most hopeful about the direction of politics – and they are turning that emotion into action at the polls.Ray Block Jr, Brown-McCourtney Career Development Professor in the McCourtney Institute and associate professor of political science and African American studies, Penn StateAndrene Wright, Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow, Penn StateMia Angelica Powell, PhD Student in Department of Political Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002892023-02-23T07:11:06Z2023-02-23T07:11:06ZElection observers are important for democracy – but few voters know what they do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511364/original/file-20230221-14-2b9goz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of a European Union election observation team speak to voters in Zimbabwe. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election observers keep watch over polls throughout the world. Their job is to support efforts to improve electoral quality and to provide transparency. In African countries, both local citizen and international observers have been deployed regularly since the 1990s. </p>
<p>During several recent elections across the continent, however, questions have arisen about the competence and impartiality of observation missions. This has led to concerns about the future of observation, both in Africa and elsewhere.</p>
<p>In 2023, <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2023/02/africa-elections-all-upcoming-votes/">more than 20 African countries</a> are scheduled to go to the polls. It will be a busy year for observers who’ll <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/uhuru-to-head-au-polls-mission-in-nigeria-4124542">be present</a> at the majority of these elections. </p>
<p>When done well, election observation <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414008325571">detects</a> ballot-box stuffing, voter suppression and political violence. Observers’ presence at polling stations <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/electoral-fraud-or-violence-the-effect-of-observers-on-party-manipulation-strategies/C1EC14B4C4BBB2156A9A17A24F6A90DF">deters election-day fraud</a>.</p>
<p>Observers also provide public statements about election quality and offer recommendations on how electoral processes could be improved. </p>
<p>Yet some observers have been criticised for a reluctance to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/comparative-studies-in-society-and-history/article/abs/valid-electoral-exercise-ugandas-1980-elections-and-the-observers-dilemma/300FE5D9472423B0C1F19813688EA87D">point out flawed processes</a>, for holding <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/election-observers-and-their-biases/">biases</a> and for weaknesses in their methodologies. </p>
<p>The perception that observation missions’ verdicts were “proved wrong” by court judgements in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2019.1657277">Kenya (2017)</a> and <a href="https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/news/malawi-courts-landmark-ruling-puts-spotlight-on-foreign-observers/">Malawi (2019)</a> has been particularly damaging. In both cases, many commentators (mis)interpreted international observers’ statements as endorsements of electoral processes that the courts later annulled.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-kenyas-judiciary-can-break-the-cycle-of-electoral-violence-182710">How Kenya's judiciary can break the cycle of electoral violence</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>It’s not clear how widely held these critical views are. The perspectives of the broader public in countries holding elections are often missing from discussions on observation. So we set out to get a sense of what voters in three African countries thought.</p>
<p>We found that people wanted to know more about election observers, but couldn’t easily get the information. Both the media and observers need to do more to provide it. Knowledge of observers’ goals and statements is essential if they are to play the role of public arbiters of election quality. </p>
<h2>What citizens think</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/lmeo">research</a> into citizen perceptions and media representations of election observation took place in Zambia, The Gambia and Kenya. These three countries have had varying experiences of election observation. </p>
<p>We interviewed 520 citizens about topics relating to their perceptions of election observation. In each country, we conducted in-depth interviews in both urban and rural areas, and in constituencies that supported the opposition and the incumbent. </p>
<p>Ordinary citizens in our case study countries rarely offered criticisms of election observation. </p>
<p>For example, we asked 120 Kenyans to evaluate the past performance of election observers during the run-up to the country’s 2022 election. Only one person referred to <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/article/future-election-observation-after-kenyas-supreme-court-judgement">the controversy</a> surrounding observation in 2017 and the supreme court’s annulment of the presidential election.</p>
<p>Instead, we found <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/pdf/Local%20Perceptions%20of%20Election%20Observation__Jan23.pdf#page=2">strong support</a> for election observation among citizens. This was the case in all three of our case study countries, which cover east, southern and west Africa. </p>
<p>Our respondents tended to have concerns about the electoral process in their own country. They spoke favourably about the potential of observation to improve overall electoral quality and transparency. They also felt that observers contributed to reducing the potentially destabilising effects of elections, such as violence. </p>
<p>In both Zambia and Kenya, support for the presence of international observers was higher than support for citizen observers. Respondents in The Gambia, however, tended to prefer citizen observers.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-rest-of-africa-can-learn-from-the-gambias-transition-to-democracy-71822">What the rest of Africa can learn from The Gambia's transition to democracy</a>
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<p>The explanations from those who chose international observers highlighted a perception that they were more impartial than citizen observers, who were often viewed as being biased or corruptible. </p>
<p>Perceptions in Zambia and Kenya may be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2023.2173177">influenced</a> by:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>political polarisation</p></li>
<li><p>a perception that political corruption is high</p></li>
<li><p>the prominence of ethnicity in politics. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These factors appear to reduce confidence in citizen observers. </p>
<p>Despite the popularity of election observers in our case study countries, we found that citizens knew little about their roles. Few could name any specific observation missions. Citizens often confused observers with other electoral actors like polling station staff, the electoral management body and party agents. </p>
<p>It’s common for citizens to believe observers can and should intervene in the electoral process. Yet, non-interference should be a key principle for both <a href="https://gndem.org/declaration-of-global-principles/">citizen</a> and <a href="https://www.ndi.org/DoP">international election observers</a>. </p>
<h2>The information gap</h2>
<p>Our interviews made it clear that citizens – especially those in rural areas – found it difficult to get information about the activities and statements of election observers. Few of the respondents heard this information when missions issued their preliminary statements.</p>
<p>The media can bridge this information gap by providing more coverage of election observation. </p>
<p>The quality of this coverage could also be improved, as observers’ preliminary statements are <a href="https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/re-evaluating-international-observation-of-kenyas-2017-elections">often mischaracterised</a>. </p>
<p>Observers’ statements tend to be complex and nuanced because they are commenting on numerous aspects of an ongoing process. In media coverage, these statements are often reduced to simple either/or judgements (such as “free and fair”). </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>Our project has drawn upon interviews with African journalists and editors to create a short <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/doc/Tips%20for%20Journalists%20and%20Editors%20who%20Cover%20Election%20Observation_.pdf">list of tips</a> on covering election observation. These are designed to improve the circulation of accurate information. The tips include getting a range of perspectives from observer missions and reaching out to them early.</p>
<p>Observer missions could also be more active in raising the profile of their work. We created a <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/doc/Media%20Representations%20of%20Election%20Observation_Jan23.pdf#page=6">list of suggestions</a> from the media in our three case study countries to help them do this. One of the tips is to interact with the media in local languages.</p>
<p>Citizens are more likely to criticise observers for the poor flow of information than for anything else. This doesn’t invalidate other criticisms of observers. In fact, if citizens begin to get more information, these criticisms may become more common. Our research suggests the media and observers need to provide it anyway.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200289/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Molony receives funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), for the ‘Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa’ research project, under grant reference ES/T015624/1.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Macdonald receives funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), for the ‘Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa’ research project, under grant reference ES/T015624/1.</span></em></p>Voters speak favourably about the potential of observation to improve overall electoral quality and transparency.Thomas Molony, Senior Lecturer in African Studies, The University of EdinburghRobert Macdonald, Research Fellow in African Studies, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1934362022-11-09T02:54:46Z2022-11-09T02:54:46ZMidterms 2022: 4 experts on the effects of voter intimidation laws, widespread mail-in voting – and what makes a winner<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494282/original/file-20221108-22-s7tx84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters cast their ballots in Madison, Wisc., on Nov. 8, 2022, as numerous close races draw to a close.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244617941/photo/americans-head-to-the-polls-to-vote-in-the-2022-midterm-elections.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=YFoUUMeo-Di_QJQT8NphUY-5-HICYkN-w0BBqNT7F00=">Jim Vondruska/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With control of Congress and statehouses at stake, voters across the nation headed to the polls on Election Day 2022. That was after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/07/2022-early-vote-data-democrats/">more than 42 million people</a> had already voted early or by mail. The Conversation asked four scholars to give us their initial observations on the voting, in an election whose outcome may be be determined by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-biden-inflation-cf4dffe87a7c2fd1bdd58df0346e15dc">voters’ concerns about the economy and democracy</a> – and whose full results will take days to know.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white woman with long brown hair appears to pick up a white box that has yellow envelopes inside. Next to her sits a pile of more white boxes with yellow envelopes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Becky White, a Mesa County election specialist, lifts a box of ballots cast during the midterm election on Nov. 8, 2022, in Grand Junction, Colo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244617244/photo/us-vote-election-colorado.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=gkk9fyO9C7rQZGlhkvGl0z_BMTrXS0NbuEqjIkWPcVU=">Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What really influences an election</h2>
<p><strong>Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University</strong></p>
<p>When people talk about elections, they frequently focus on how issues and events, as well as candidates’ attributes, affect who wins and loses: “He’s such a wooden speaker!” “She’s soft on crime!” However, the most important factors influencing elections are mostly out of candidates’ control. </p>
<p>Political insiders and scholars call these “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1962060">the</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2130810">fundamentals</a>”: the state of the economy and the approval rating of the president. Together, they set the stage for everything else that happens in an election. </p>
<p>In 2022, the fundamentals have been running pretty strongly in Republicans’ favor. First, President Joe Biden is a Democrat and pretty unpopular, with <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/">approval ratings in the low 40s</a>. Second, even though the economy is pretty healthy by some measures, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/04/october-unemployment-report-jobs/">with unemployment under 4%</a>, most headlines are <a href="https://apnews.com/cf4dffe87a7c2fd1bdd58df0346e15dc">focused on high inflation</a>. When you combine an unpopular president with a shaky economy, it’s a recipe for the president’s party – this year, the Democrats – to do poorly at the polls. </p>
<p>Even when two candidates of the same party run in the same state and one does better than the other, systematic factors, not their positions or campaign strategies, usually explain the difference. For example, in Georgia, where I live and <a href="https://cas.gsu.edu/profile/jeffrey-lazarus/">teach political science at Georgia State University</a>, Democrats <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Stacey_Abrams">Stacey Abrams</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Raphael_Warnock">Raphael Warnock</a> are running for governor and U.S. senator, respectively. The results aren’t in yet, but <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3724032-heres-where-the-polls-stand-in-some-key-2022-senate-races/">polls point to Warnock</a> doing significantly better in his race <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-stacey-abrams/">than Abrams</a> in hers. Assuming that bears out, what’s the reason behind the difference? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged Black man with glasses holds a black mask that says 'vote' in white. He stands next to a middle aged Black woman with a mask over her mouth that also says vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Raphael Warnock, the Democratic candidate for Georgia’s Senate seat, and Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia, together in November 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1229445356/photo/georgia-senate.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=eZ3h6oVb8Xh_jwjqOawdR8VAVaHUHQNUiMCtuiT_4TU=">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s not because Warnock ran a good campaign and Abrams didn’t. Rather, three factors are helping Warnock but not Abrams, and all three are out of their control. </p>
<p>First, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381614000139">Warnock is an incumbent</a>, while Abrams is a challenger; incumbents fare better than challengers. Second, Warnock’s opponent, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/02/walker-warnock-redemption-evangelicals/">Herschel Walker, is beset by a number of high-profile</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07343469.2020.1788665">scandals</a>; Abrams’ opponent, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Brian_Kemp">Republican Gov. Brian Kemp</a>, has kept clear of any major financial or personal problems. Third, the fact that Abrams is a woman makes a difference; <a href="http://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9718595">for a number of reasons, women</a> face more difficult electoral environments. Factors like voter stereotypes and increased media scrutiny result in female candidates’ getting about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911401419">3 percentage points</a> less than similar male candidates. </p>
<p>Most of the time, the story lines voters tend to focus on – the issues that are important to us or the candidates we love or hate – have much less influence over the outcomes of elections than many give them credit for. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young Black woman holds a baby on her hip and votes at a shielded voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter casts her ballot on Nov. 8, 2022, in Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244610271/photo/us-vote-election.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=iAtAKNKdrgZXtBAG1M9-x5ugFh0KfFhNvnbVbpt3BBA=">Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mail-in voting remained secure, despite concerns</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TY_5kAMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Mara Suttmann-Lea</a>, Connecticut College; <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9AlVoYcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Thessalia Merivaki</a>, Mississippi State University</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown skinned young woman holds up a ballot and stands amid a crowd of people outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter displays a ballot when arriving at a voting center in Los Angeles on Nov. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244616830/photo/us-vote-election-california.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=2NyXbdrslje1GF4F7ZyECkMvvPml3-bsxITxgms7F0o=">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Days before this year’s midterm election, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/07/gop-sues-reject-mail-ballots/">news broke</a> of challenges to thousands of mail-in ballots in state races that may determine control of the U.S. Congress. </p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, <a href="https://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-85-2022pco%20-%20105327594202667240.pdf?cb=1">the state Supreme Court ruled</a> election officials should not count mail ballots missing a date on the outer envelope. And a judge blocked a request from the Republican nominee for secretary of state in Michigan, Kristina Karamo, that <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/judge-kristina-karamo-lacks-shred-evidence-block-detroit-ballots">most absentee ballots</a> be thrown out.</p>
<p>These challenges to mail-in voting are echoes of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voter-suppression-2020">long-simmering election concerns</a> that boiled over during the contentious, COVID-19-tinged 2020 presidential election. The 2022 election cycle featured a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/technology/midterm-elections-misinformation.html">continuation of misinformation</a> about the security of mail-in voting and the integrity of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/07/why-we-wont-know-much-on-election-night/">ballot counts that take several days</a>.</p>
<p>It is true mail ballots are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912921993537">more likely to be rejected</a> because the additional steps voters need to take to cast a ballot create more potential for mistakes. But that is the result of measures that protect against fraud, not evidence of it. Some states like California, Florida and Illinois allow for the “<a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx">preprocessing</a>” of ballots before Election Day to ready the ballot for counting, including verifying voter eligibility. But many states do not allow this process to begin until Election Day, which means counting may last a few days, including in states with key Senate races like Pennsylvania and Georgia. </p>
<p>At least in some states, voters whose mailed ballots are rejected have some time to “<a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-15-states-that-permit-voters-to-correct-signature-discrepancies.aspx">cure</a>” or correct administrative errors in their submissions. This may mean the results of key races cannot be completely counted for some time after the election. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Cure_period_for_absentee_and_mail-in_ballots">many states</a>, however, voters are not given the opportunity to correct errors. That’s true in <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022-09-08-Order.pdf">Wisconsin</a>, where Republicans recently won a court ruling preventing some mail ballots from being counted when the witness address is not complete. And in other states, like <a href="https://www.goerie.com/story/news/politics/elections/state/2022/11/06/mail-in-ballots-pennsylvania-curing-process-midterm-election/69611193007/">Pennsylvania</a>, the legal process for fixing errors is unclear.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/national-voter-education-week/">Our research</a> shows that many problems with mail ballots can be mitigated ahead of time if election officials communicate effectively with their constituents about voting by mail. Voters whose election officials make more efforts to teach people the proper procedure make fewer mistakes that lead to ballot rejection.</p>
<h2>Black and Latino voters undeterred by anticipated Election Day threats</h2>
<p><strong>Bertrall Ross, University of Virginia</strong></p>
<p>For many Black and Latino voters, the 2022 midterm elections have been remarkable for what did not happen. Threats of voter intimidation appeared overblown, and attempts to suppress Black and Latino turnout didn’t seem to work – at least not that we know of as polls closed on Election Day.</p>
<p>Misinformation that targets minority voters is nothing new. But <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/60309566">a rash of new state election laws</a> triggered widespread anxiety among civil rights advocates over the potential consequences for showing up at the polls.</p>
<p>Yet, as in every other election since the adoption of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act#:%7E:text=This%20act%20was%20signed%20into,as%20a%20prerequisite%20to%20voting.">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>, Black and Latino voters overcame real and perceived efforts to suppress their increasing ability to affect the <a href="https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/">results of local, state and federal elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two rows of five Black women sit at long tables, sorting through papers that are in yellow boxes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll workers process ballots at an elections warehouse outside of Philadelphia on Nov. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244610615/photo/us-vote-election-pennsylvania.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=q4DnoVs3m2XTD4Jw6FsOZdsZlU0pXDH2QlO-xdhn2Po=">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In important ways, the 2022 election season has deviated from historic, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-african-americans/">often violent discrimination</a> against minority voters exercising their citizenship rights guaranteed under the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/15th-amendment#:%7E:text=Passed%20by%20Congress%20February%2026,men%20the%20right%20to%20vote">15th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a>. </p>
<p>Instead of the white supremacists of the past striking fear among minority voters, the fear during this 2022 midterms was the possible chaos dozens of new state election laws could create for minority voters. Those new laws were passed as a result of former President Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories that he lost the 2020 election because of widespread fraud. Trump’s widely disproved theories led several states to enact new <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/VOTING-RESTRICTIONS/znvnbdjbkvl/index.html">election laws</a> that many civil rights activists and Democrats argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">were attempts to suppress the minority vote</a>. </p>
<p>The problem with the 2020 presidential election was not widespread fraud, but rather the way some people reacted to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-race-and-ethnicity-virus-outbreak-georgia-7a843bbce00713cfde6c3fdbc2e31eb7">widespread voting by Black and brown Americans for Joe Biden</a>. It was more than coincidental that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group">GOP challenges in 2020 were made in cities</a> with significant numbers of Black and Latino voters, such as Detroit and Philadelphia. </p>
<p>Although it is too early to estimate actual voting turnout numbers, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/12/key-facts-about-black-eligible-voters-in-2022/">Black </a>and Latino voters have cast their ballots regardless of perceived voter suppression laws or intimidation. </p>
<p>In an election in which the threats appeared different from those of the past and the prospects of democratic backsliding greater than ever, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096123/voter-turnout-midterms-by-ethnicity-historical/">Black</a> and <a href="https://naleo.org/COMMS/PRA/2022/2022-Projections-Final.pdf">Latino</a> voters proved their resilience, with turnout numbers expected to match or exceed that of the last midterm election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193436/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thessalia (Lia) Merivaki is a member of the Carter Center's U.S. Elections Expert Study Team. She has received funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) and the Scholars Strategy Network (SSN). She is also affiliated with the Election Community Network (ECN).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mara Suttmann-Lea receives funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, and is also affiliated with the Election Community Network (ECN).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bertrall Ross and Jeffrey Lazarus do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some election results will take days or longer to materialize – but on election night, a panel of scholars offer initial takeaways on mail-in voting, how to win an election and voter suppression.Thessalia Merivaki, Assistant Professor of American Politics, Mississippi State UniversityBertrall Ross, Justice Thurgood Marshall Distinguished Professor of Law, University of VirginiaJeffrey Lazarus, Professor American Politics, Political Science, Georgia State UniversityMara Suttmann-Lea, Assistant Professor of Government, Connecticut CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1932872022-11-01T12:46:45Z2022-11-01T12:46:45ZVigilantes at the polls were a threat in the 19th century, too, but the laws put in place then may not work in 2022<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492153/original/file-20221027-29020-ancqnm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C16%2C5318%2C2739&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">State laws dictate how far away campaign signs and workers need to be from polling places. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EarlyVotingTexas/6034de4ab1b942b894293cd339a07ac2/photo?Query=campaign%20worker%20polling%20place&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=33&currentItemNo=10">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Author <a href="https://www.poemuseum.org/who-was-edgar-allan-poe">Edgar Allan Poe</a>, the 19th-century master of American macabre fiction, may have died of dirty politics. According to legend, a gang of party “poll hustlers” kidnapped and drugged him. They forced him to vote, then <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.umaryland.edu/mlr/vol26/iss3/3/">abandoned him near death</a>. Details are murky, but we do know Poe died in Baltimore days after the Oct. 3, 1849, election.</p>
<p>The story, though likely untrue, is certainly plausible. Election Day in 19th-century America was a loud, raucous, often dangerous event. Political parties would offer food, drink and inducements ranging from offers of bribes to threats of beatings to encourage voters to cast the party’s official ballot.</p>
<p>Reforms at the end of the century – particularly after an <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-vote-that-failed-159427766/">especially dirty 1888 presidential election</a> – aimed to stop the shenanigans, assure the safety of voters and elevate the act of voting. </p>
<p>That is why the U.S. now has secret government-printed ballots rather than party-provided ballots. And all 50 states have laws <a href="https://www.nass.org/resources/2018-election-information/electioneering-boundaries">that ban potentially intimidating behavior</a> at polling places. </p>
<p>Yet there appears to be increasing risk of such voter intimidation. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/pro-trump-republicans-court-election-volunteers-challenge-any-vote/">The Washington Post reports</a> that the Republican Party has held “thousands of training sessions around the country on how to monitor voting and lodge complaints about … midterm elections.” Former President Donald Trump’s ally and conservative firebrand <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/pro-trump-republicans-court-election-volunteers-challenge-any-vote/">Steve Bannon has urged followers to head to the polls</a>, claiming “We’ll challenge any vote, any ballot.” And <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/10/26/cities-midterms-elections-interference-militias-mayors-police-poll-extremists?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">Axios reports that</a> “Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers are looking to sway the upcoming midterms in favor of their preferred candidates by signing up as poll workers and drop-box watchers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men fighting at the polls in 1857" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364020/original/file-20201016-21-1avfuu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Elections in the 19th century were sometimes wild affairs; this cartoon is from 1857.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.loc.gov/resource/cph.3c18012/">Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vestigial laws?</h2>
<p>The idea behind these anti-electioneering laws is to prevent the kind of "poll hustling” to which Poe may have fallen victim. </p>
<p>Party tough guys cannot follow – or drag – helpless voters into the polling place, or watch them to make sure they vote the correct ballot with the implicit threat that a “wrong” vote could result in a beating. </p>
<p>These laws generally prohibit campaign activities at or near polling places – wearing campaign paraphernalia, shouting slogans, even loitering inside those polling places. Distance requirements for campaigners, ranging from <a href="https://www.pa.gov/guides/voting-and-elections/">10 feet from a polling place in Pennsylvania</a> to <a href="https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Vote/Pages/default.aspx">600 feet away in Louisiana</a>, help to assure that secret ballots are actually cast in secret.</p>
<p>But these vestigial laws meant to purify 19th-century elections may be ill equipped for our hyperpartisan modern elections </p>
<p>If voters come to the polls wearing symbols like the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-shifting-symbolism-of-the-gadsden-flag">Gadsden “Don’t Tread on Me” flag</a> that has evolved into an anti-government symbol, a <a href="https://www.history.com/news/how-did-the-rainbow-flag-become-an-lgbt-symbol">rainbow pin</a> associated with gay pride, or even a <a href="https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2020/02/26/spicing-up-the-political-discourse/">sticker from a spice company</a> whose owner detests Trump, those symbols can take on a perceived political meaning. Under these laws, these people could be accused of illegally campaigning where people vote.</p>
<p>How can anti-electioneering laws keep politics out of the polling place when politics already suffuses so much of life? And in 2022, polling places for many may be the kitchen table or a ballot drop box. In that context, do these laws still have relevance?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gloved hand inserts papers into the slot of a black and yellow box labeled Ballot Box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=760&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364555/original/file-20201020-15-fbdhly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=955&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An election worker puts mail-in ballots collected from vehicles in a ballot box at the Clark County Election Department on Oct. 13 in North Las Vegas, Nev.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/clark-county-election-department-worker-kelley-george-puts-news-photo/1280091056?adppopup=true">Ethan Miller/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Purifying’ elections</h2>
<p>Political reformers in the late 1880s <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-vote-that-failed-159427766/">saw elections as too closely tied to party machines and their Election Day carousing</a>. Much of the reform around this time was focused on “cleaning up” politics and destroying the nefarious influence of party machines. </p>
<p>In fact, the current popular understanding of party machines as being universally corrupt and lowbrow might be because “good government” activists won, so <a href="https://www-jstor-org.pitt.idm.oclc.org/stable/2151546?seq=5#metadata_info_tab_contents">they got to write the history</a> </p>
<p>Yet now, these reforms meant to purify 19th-century elections may not have the effect the authors intended. </p>
<p>For example, a New Hampshire woman <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/politics/decision-2020/nh-woman-votes-topless-over-anti-trump-shirt-dispute-report/2192282/">opted to vote topless</a> in that state’s September 2020 primary after election officials told her that her anti-Trump T-shirt ran afoul of New Hampshire laws forbidding campaigning within a polling place. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/electioneering.aspx">10 states</a> currently have laws on the books regulating the kinds of clothing voters can wear to the polling place.</p>
<p>These laws may violate the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment prohibition on limits to free speech, but not all have been tested in court. In the 2018 opinion <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky/">Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky</a>, the Supreme Court ruled that the state’s laws to create an “orderly and controlled environment” around the polling place were overly vague. </p>
<p>According to the Minnesota opinion, “a rule whose fair enforcement requires an election judge to maintain a mental index of the platforms and positions of every candidate and party on the ballot is not reasonable.”</p>
<p>Poll workers, then, do not need to keep abreast of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/business/fred-perry-proud-boys-intl-scli-gbr/index.html">what a black-and-yellow polo shirt means</a> or which spice company has engaged in political advocacy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of legal language in a section of California law regulating electioneering." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=244&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492142/original/file-20221027-24414-xt4ylg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Buttons, hats, pencils, pens, shirts, signs, or stickers containing electioneering information’ are forbidden by California law within 100 feet of a polling place.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=ELEC&sectionNum=319.5.">California Legislature</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Bad things happen in Philadelphia’</h2>
<p>Even so, teasing out what constitutes a “political message” seems easy compared with teasing out what constitutes a “polling place” when so many voters will cast their ballots before Election Day.</p>
<p>In the Sept. 29, 2020, presidential debate, Trump warned that <a href="https://www.phillyvoice.com/president-donald-trump-bad-things-happen-philadelphia-presidential-debate/">“bad things happen in Philadelphia</a>.” Earlier that week, a paid Republican poll watcher in Philadelphia was denied entry into a building that was not a formal polling place. Instead, it was handling, among other things, voter registration and pickup and drop-off of mail-in ballots. The Trump campaign sued, but the state court <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/judge-rejects-trumps-suit-over-philly-satellite-elections-offices/2559325/">rejected the campaign’s argument</a>, explaining that watchers are allowed only at polling places on Election Day, not Board of Elections offices at other times. </p>
<p>If anything, though, concerns about voter intimidation are greater in 2022, largely because of reactions to baseless claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election. <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/voting-rights/article/How-Texas-hardest-fought-voting-law-impacts-2022-17522652.php">Efforts in Texas</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">other states</a> to “clean up” purported voter fraud, some in response to the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/07/texas-ken-paxton-2000-mules-sid-miller/">debunked film “2000 Mules,”</a> may end up suppressing the vote in 2022.</p>
<p>Indeed, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-two-five-us-voters-worry-about-intimidation-polls-reutersipsos-2022-10-26/">Reuters/Ipsos poll recently found</a> that 40% of respondents are worried about threats of violence or voter intimidation at polling places in 2022.</p>
<p>The unfounded claims of election fraud have spurred <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/voting-rights-tracker.html">changes to election laws in many states</a>. For example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">Georgia’s new election law enables organized groups to challenge the eligibility</a> of an unlimited number of voters, meaning that some early voters have turned up to vote, only to find they <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/22/georgia-early-voting-obstacles-new-election-law">need to jump through more hoops</a> to cast their ballots.</p>
<p>And in other cases, conspiracy theorists are taking matters into their own hands: Some voters in Arizona are reporting that monitors, including armed vigilantes in one case, are patrolling ballot drop boxes, <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/10/26/monitors-at-arizona-ballot-drop-boxes-draw-complaints-of-voter-intimidation">possibly running afoul of federal voter intimidation laws</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1583976792062185472"}"></div></p>
<h2>How clean is too clean?</h2>
<p>In her 2004 book “<a href="https://www.oupress.com/books/9779895/diminished-democracy">Diminished Democracy</a>,” political scientist <a href="https://sociology.fas.harvard.edu/people/theda-skocpol">Theda Skocpol</a> describes 19th-century reformers as working “for measures that would emphasize an unemotional, educational style of politics.” </p>
<p>Demanding the protection of the purity of the polling place and politics, Skocpol argues, “treats politics as if it were something dirty and implicitly holds up the ideal of an educated elite safely above and outside of politics.” </p>
<p>Certainly, few Americans would advocate allowing the country’s literary greats – or anyone else – to fall prey to roving political gangs. But determining how to protect the integrity of elections is difficult when elections are everywhere. </p>
<p>And it may not be as easy as relying on rules meant for a different time, a different means of voting and a different electorate.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/19th-century-political-parties-kidnapped-reluctant-voters-and-printed-their-own-ballots-and-thats-why-weve-got-laws-regulating-behavior-at-polling-places-147238">a story that originally was published</a> on Oct. 21, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristin Kanthak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All 50 states have laws that ban potentially intimidating behavior at polling places. They will need enforcement during the 2022 midterm elections.Kristin Kanthak, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1728742021-12-01T17:11:56Z2021-12-01T17:11:56ZGood riddance: the costs of Morrison’s voter ID plan outweighed any benefit<p>The Morrison government has shelved its plan to make Australians produce identification before casting their vote. Yesterday it withdrew the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6811">Electoral Legislation Amendment (Voter Integrity) Bill 2021</a> it had hoped to pass in time for the 2022 election. </p>
<p>The reason is political. The announcement came hours after Tasmanian independent senator <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/government-drops-push-to-pass-controversial-voter-id-bill-ahead-of-next-election/bfc1e8a7-5498-417a-bcbf-ef49dbc5b232">Jacqui Lambie said</a> she would vote against the bill. </p>
<p>With rebel Coalition backbenchers in both the House of Representatives and Senate vowing to vote against all legislation in a bid to force the Morrison government’s hand on vaccine mandates, it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/01/labor-to-back-bill-forcing-charities-to-reveal-donors-in-deal-with-government-for-dropping-voter-id-laws">reportedly did a deal</a> with the Opposition to drop the bill in return for Labor supporting another bill, to oblige charities to reveal donors.</p>
<p>But it should have dropped the bill as a matter of good policy. </p>
<p>There are various ways in which such proposals might be analysed, but an economic framework of cost-benefit analysis would be a useful starting point. As the name implies, the aim is to weigh up the potential benefits of a policy to determine if they outweigh the costs. </p>
<p>The Australian government <a href="https://obpr.pmc.gov.au/resources/guidance-assessing-impacts/cost-benefit-analysis">says it is</a> “committed to the use of cost–benefit analysis to assess regulatory proposals in order to encourage better decision making”. Had it done a cost-benefit analysis of the bill, it’s hard to see how it could have introduced it in the first place.</p>
<h2>Benefits of identification</h2>
<p>Let’s start with the benefits.</p>
<p>The strongest argument for voter ID is to prevent impersonation – one person voting in the name of another. In Australia, however, voting is compulsory, which makes impersonation hard to accomplish. </p>
<p>About 95% of registered voters normally vote in elections. </p>
<p>To effectively impersonate another voter without producing an apparent double vote, a fraudster would have know who the non-voters were. There is <a href="https://www.wheelercentre.com/notes/housekeeping-2-ID-who-votes-more-than-once">some anecdotal evidence</a> that people do sometimes vote on behalf of a friend. But while this is illegal, such proxy votes are unlikely to change the result.</p>
<p>Because votes are checked against the electoral roll, we have good evidence on the extent of multiple voting in Australia. </p>
<p>After the 2016 election, the Australian Electoral Commission identified <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-18000-people-asked-to-explain-why-they-voted-twice-at-election-20161019-gs5cal.html">18,343 instances</a> where a name had been crossed off twice – about 0.12% of the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/2016/key-facts.htm">14.89 million votes</a> cast. </p>
<p>Investigating a sample of these, the AEC found nearly 80% were most likely errors by it own staff, such as crossing off the name above or below the correct one on the electoral roll. </p>
<p>Another 10% were mistakes by voters, who might have been mentally ill, confused because of language issues, or who simply forgot they had already voted. </p>
<p>That left about 1,800 votes (0.012% of votes cast) where there was no obvious explanation. But also no compelling evidence of deliberate multiple voting. </p>
<p>The strongest evidence came from 59 cases where three votes were cast under the same name, including one person who <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/is-it-time-for-voter-id/">apparently voted 16 times</a>.</p>
<p>A requirement to show ID would not prevent someone from voting multiple times if they chose to do so. But it might facilitate prosecution by making it impossible for a multiple voter to claim that someone else voted in their name. </p>
<p>However, the AEC’s data suggest the total number of excess votes here amounts to two or three per electorate. With about 100,000 voters per electorate, this is nowhere near enough to make any real difference. </p>
<p>Voter ID would prevent someone from voting on behalf of another with their consent. There is anecdotal evidence that this happens, but not on a large scale, and we would expect the real voter would choose someone who they trust to lodge a vote according to their wishes.</p>
<p>Now let’s look at the costs.</p>
<h2>Administrative costs</h2>
<p>A voter ID proposal has two kinds of costs. </p>
<p>First, there are the costs of ID checking: administrative costs for the electoral commission and the compliance cost for voters who have to ensure they have ID.</p>
<p>Australia’s only previous experience with voter ID laws is in Queensland. The Liberal National Party government led by Campbell Newman introduced an <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2014/May/Queenslandelectorallaws">ID requirement in 2014</a>. This was in force for the 2015 state election, in which the LNP was narrowly defeated. The incoming Labor government repealed it.</p>
<p>In that election, the Electoral Commission of Queensland mailed every voter a card they could use to vote. This was the predominant method used, and made compliance easier. But presumably it cost hundreds of thousand of dollars in postage and administration. </p>
<p>Moreover, since the cards had no photo they didn’t provide any security against consensual vote impersonation. There was nothing to stop someone who didn’t feel like voting giving their card to a friend.</p>
<p>The big cost, though, lies in the possibility that some people would be discouraged from voting or would be refused a vote because of inadequate ID. Even if the Queensland card scheme is emulated, there’s a chance of voters failing to receive their card or misplacing it. </p>
<p>Turnout fell at the Queensland 2015 election, but we can’t necessarily draw any sharp conclusions about the role ID laws may have played because there was a further decline in 2017. The likelihood of these laws disenfranchising the poor, homeless and vulnerable, however, does appear quite high.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-voter-id-requirements-could-exclude-the-most-vulnerable-citizens-especially-first-nations-people-170797">Why voter ID requirements could exclude the most vulnerable citizens, especially First Nations people</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Effects on trust</h2>
<p>Beyond these direct costs and benefits, it is important to consider the effects of ID laws on our political culture as a whole. </p>
<p>Some proponents of ID laws <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/is-it-time-for-voter-id/">have argued</a> they will increase public confidence in the electoral system. </p>
<p>That might be the case if there were widespread concern about closely contested elections. A <a href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/the-australian-voter-experience">2017 study</a> by University of Sydney and Harvard researchers found about one in four Australian believe fraud occurs “usually” or “always” in elections. But there’s no real evidence to suggest voter ID laws would ease these doubts. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Confidence in the AEC’s ability to conduct an election</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing confidence in the AEC's ability to conduct an election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434913/original/file-20211201-22-1fv0lc5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/the-australian-voter-experience">The Australian Voter Experience: trust and confidence in the 2016 federal election</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Under current circumstances, voter ID laws are more likely to undermine public confidence than to enhance it. </p>
<p>The push for voter ID laws in Australia are modelled on similar efforts by the US Republican Party, which are widely seen as an attempt to suppress voting, particularly by poor and minority voters more likely to vote for the Democratic Party. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mail-in-votes-proof-of-citizenship-the-long-history-of-preventing-minorities-from-voting-in-the-us-146669">No mail-in votes, proof of citizenship: the long history of preventing minorities from voting in the US</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Moreover, many of the staunchest advocates of voter ID, such as <a href="https://time.com/6080432/tucker-carlson-profile/">Fox News host Tucker Carlson</a>, have supported the false claims that the 2020 election was stolen – a direct assault on confidence in the system.</p>
<p>An attempt to impose new requirements for voting, introduced at the last minute by a government trailing in the polls, looked more like political desperation than a considered attempt to improve the working of the electoral system. </p>
<p>It was always best to proceed only with broad multi-party support. Which there isn’t.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s compulsory voting laws undermine the arguments for requiring voters to produce identification.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707972021-11-08T01:32:50Z2021-11-08T01:32:50ZWhy voter ID requirements could exclude the most vulnerable citizens, especially First Nations people<p>On Tuesday October 26, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/26/voter-identification-to-be-compulsory-under-morrison-government-proposal">Guardian Australia revealed</a> the Morrison government intends to make further changes to Australian federal electoral legislation. </p>
<p>These proposed changes include the requirement for registered voters to show ID prior to casting their vote at the polling booth on election day.</p>
<p>The proposed changes state the appropriate forms of ID would include:</p>
<ul>
<li>drivers licence</li>
<li>passport</li>
<li>medicare card</li>
<li>power bill</li>
<li>debit or credit card</li>
<li>an enrolment letter from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). </li>
<li>a document from a Land Council or similar agency.</li>
</ul>
<p>If a voter is unable to produce ID on election day, there is an option for a fellow voter (who has their own ID) to vouch for them. Potential voters could also sign a declaration for their ID, which is then attached to their ballot. </p>
<p>If this bill becomes law, it would potentially further disenfranchise vulnerable people of society who don’t have access to the ID documents required, particularly First Nations people.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voter-id-is-a-bad-idea-heres-why-170777">Voter ID is a bad idea. Here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why have these changes been proposed?</h2>
<p>The Morrison government has stated these measures are necessary to ensure federal elections aren’t at risk of electoral fraud. This also ensures potential voters aren’t excluded from casting their vote at federal elections. This position was reaffirmed recently by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/government-rejects-criticism-of-voter-identification-laws/13606938">Liberal Senator James McGrath on RN Breakfast</a>.</p>
<p>Previous Australian elections have not required voters to produce ID on election day. This is because electoral fraud has rarely been an issue in Australian elections. In fact, the Australian Electoral Commission estimates the rate of multiple voting at the 2019 Federal election was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/nt-proposed-voter-id-laws-criticised-northern-territory/100577502">0.03%</a>.</p>
<p>This proposed change from the Morrison government has been met with criticism and outrage from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-28/voter-id-laws-to-require-proof-could-disenfranchise-vulnerable/100575812">Labor, the Greens and others.</a> They argue not only is multiple voting not a problem that needs solving, this proposed change risks doing harm to the electoral system.</p>
<p>The people who would suffer most from this proposed bill are Australia’s most vulnerable voters. They include those living in financial poverty, living in remote communities with minimal access to support services and homeless people. Indigenous people occupy <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples">alarming rates</a> of each of those vulnerable positions in society.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1453506826385838088"}"></div></p>
<h2>Further disenfranchisement for vulnerable people</h2>
<p>Barriers of this kind are part of a history of undemocratic attitudes towards how Australian elections should be conducted. Women and Aboriginal people of Australia were excluded from providing input during the drafting of the Australian Constitution. The only people who were included in that process were <a href="https://peo.gov.au/understand-our-parliament/history-of-parliament/federation/the-federation-of-australia/">non-Indigenous male delegates from each colony except Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, women and Aboriginal people were granted the right to vote in federal elections much later than white men. Women were granted the right to vote in 1902, Aboriginal people in 1962. However, with Indigenous people, there still remains ongoing issues with increasingly <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/publication/pathways-to-justice-inquiry-into-the-incarceration-rate-of-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples-alrc-report-133/executive-summary-15/disproportionate-incarceration-rate/">high and disproportionate incarceration rates</a> and <a href="https://ctgreport.niaa.gov.au/literacy-and-numeracy">low literacy and numeracy rates</a>. Those issues are yet to be settled in Australia and contribute significantly to Indigenous marginalisation.</p>
<p>It seems as though the Morrison government’s position on voter ID requirements doesn’t consider the issues Indigenous people face and how to combat them. For example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/only-58-of-indigenous-australians-are-registered-to-vote-we-should-be-asking-why">research conducted from the AEC in 2016 suggests</a> approximately 58% of Indigenous people (both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) were enrolled to vote. However, this was viewed as a generous estimate of Indigenous voter engagement – a more realistic enrolment figure is about 50%.</p>
<p>Further, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/only-58-of-indigenous-australians-are-registered-to-vote-we-should-be-asking-why">a private assessment</a> conducted by Indigenous leaders, non-government and government agencies found approximately 25 – 30% of Indigenous people who are enrolled actually cast a formal vote. These figures, I’d suggest, are indicative of broader systemic challenges facing Indigenous political participation in Australia. </p>
<p>Senator Patrick Dodson <a href="https://unsw-my.sharepoint.com/personal/z3533146_ad_unsw_edu_au/Documents/Desktop/302Y1525.pdf">recently said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the government knows full well that First Nations people have always struggled to obtain identification documents as basic as a birth certificate, because of an absence of records or because of difficulties in accessing and navigating official services – difficulties that are often exacerbated because of remoteness and language and communication disadvantages. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indigenous people and communities must rely on the limited resources of the AEC, which <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/indigenous/iepp.htm">coordinates educational outreach programs</a> to engage and assist Indigenous voters. However, past funding for these initiatives has been limited. </p>
<p>The Indigenous enrolment rate of <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2021/10-28.htm">79.3%</a> still lags behind the enrolment rate for all eligible voters of 96.3%. Those figures are not inclusive of Indigenous voter turnout rates, Indigenous votes cast and the rates at which those votes are actually counted as formal votes.</p>
<h2>What do these proposed changes mean for other vulnerable voters?</h2>
<p>The Morrison government’s proposed voter ID changes add additional red tape to the voting process. This does not provide incentive for those who are already oppressed to participate in voting. Instead, such electoral changes could make for a less fair and less transparent democracy. </p>
<p>There should be as few barriers to Australian citizens casting their vote as possible.</p>
<p>At an international level, the government’s position conflicts with internationally recognised standards of universal suffrage. In general terms, it should only be limited if there are <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2007/HCA/43">substantial reasons</a> to justify the limitation of the privileges of adult citizens. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-dispossession-to-massacres-the-yoo-rrook-justice-commission-sets-a-new-standard-for-truth-telling-170632">From dispossession to massacres, the Yoo-rrook Justice Commission sets a new standard for truth-telling</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Voting should be easier than this</h2>
<p>The Morrison government’s position on electoral fraud is not a substantial reason to further exclude Australia’s most vulnerable people from voting at elections.</p>
<p>Rather, given the evidence of Indigenous and other vulnerable people’s disenfranchisement and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/27/proposed-voter-id-laws-real-threat-to-rights-of-indigenous-australians-and-people-without-homes">as the Australian Human Rights Commission has recommended</a> in its submission to a Senate inquiry in September, the voter ID requirement bill should be blocked. </p>
<p>The proposed electoral voter ID requirements are precisely why Indigenous people need a constitutionally protected Voice to Parliament, given their means of representation within it is so limited.</p>
<p>The government should adopt a new strategy for electoral reform that commits to empowering and including Indigenous people and other vulnerable voters of society. </p>
<p>A new strategy would require new ways to ensure Australia’s most vulnerable, marginalised and unrepresented people have a seat at the table in federal electoral decision-making processes. Most importantly, this must include those who are first peoples to this land.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dani Linder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government has recently proposed the requirement for registered voters to show ID prior to casting their vote at the polling booth on election day. potentially further disenfranchise vulnerable people of society who don’t have access to the ID documents required, particularly First Nations peopleDani Linder, Lecturer/Deputy Director of the Indigenous Law Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1654142021-08-10T12:26:04Z2021-08-10T12:26:04ZClaims of voter suppression in newly enacted state laws don’t all hold up under closer review<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415283/original/file-20210809-17-ekmidn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8197%2C5456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists at a voting rights rally near the U.S. Capitol on Aug. 3, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/activists-attend-a-rally-about-voting-rights-and-ending-the-news-photo/1234432343?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As states across the U.S. enact new laws relating to elections, there have been efforts to capture, in aggregate, the effects of those laws. Reports, found in both journalism and advocacy group statements, that new election laws will “restrict” voting or have an “anti-voter” effect misrepresent what many of the laws will do.</p>
<p>On July 14, 2021, a story in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/02/state-voting-restrictions/">The Washington Post described what it called</a> “voting restrictions,” citing figures from a website called the “<a href="https://votingrightslab.org/">Voting Rights Lab</a>,” and noted that “17 states had enacted 32 laws with provisions that tighten rules for voting and election administration.” The Voting Rights Lab describes itself as working to “build winning state legislative campaigns that secure, protect, and defend the voting rights of all Americans.”</p>
<p>The Brennan Center for Justice, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/about/mission-impact">a nonprofit with a goal</a> “to reform, revitalize, and when necessary, defend our country’s systems of democracy and justice,” offered a <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-july-2021">July 2021 “roundup”</a> to assess “the full impact of efforts to suppress the vote in 2021.” The roundup concluded that “at least 18 states enacted 30 laws that restrict access to the vote,” a figure <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/06/statement-by-vice-president-kamala-harris-on-the-anniversary-of-the-voting-rights-act-of-1965/">cited by Vice President Kamala Harris</a> in comments on the anniversary of the Voting Rights Act.</p>
<p>Classifying a law as a voter suppression, as a voting restriction or as a tightening of a rule for voting involves judgment. It anticipates the future effect of a law, and it concludes that the law will have a negative effect. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PSynZNoAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of election law</a> who has examined the statutes that have been lumped together as “voting restrictions,” I have found that while some could fairly be given that label, many are ordinary rules of election administration that simply don’t merit those labels. Many bills will likely have no discernible effect, much less a negative effect, on the right to vote.</p>
<h2>Routine procedure</h2>
<p><a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:UT2021000H12&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=51c25c48e64cb1636a693f59602e6ee7&mode=current_text">Utah’s House Bill 12</a>, for instance, was enacted unanimously by both houses of the Utah Legislature. </p>
<p>Utah’s bill updates a law about how to remove dead people from the list of registered voters. It increases the communication surrounding death certificates to election officials, and it requires the state election administrator to submit Social Security Administration data about those who have died to county clerks so that clerks may remove them from the list of registered voters. </p>
<p>The Brennan Center lists this as a law that restricts the right to vote; the Voting Rights Lab describes its effect as “unclear.” But this is not a voter purge statute, which can remove living voters from the voter roster. It only removes dead people from the list. It is a routine update to election administration.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415287/original/file-20210809-25-uhugze.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, increased numbers of voters cast absentee or early ballots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/long-lines-of-voters-wait-to-cast-early-voting-ballots-at-news-photo/1229129007?adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Voting trends reflected</h2>
<p>States also updated laws about the size of polling places. The trend <a href="https://electionlab.mit.edu/research/voting-mail-and-absentee-voting">toward increased absentee voting and early voting</a> means fewer voters visit the polls on Election Day. Some states have moved toward <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vote-centers.aspx">“vote center” models</a>, in which voters are no longer assigned to a single polling place and instead have more geographic flexibility in choosing where they vote. As these other forms of voting increase, the traditional precinct model no longer needs to be as small as it is. Slightly larger precincts allow states to shift money to these other forms of voting opportunities.</p>
<p>The Nevada Legislature unanimously agreed, after hearing only support from county election officials, to <a href="https://www.leg.state.nv.us/Session/81st2021/Bills/SB/SB84_EN.pdf">increase the potential maximum size of a precinct from 3,000 voters to 5,000</a>. County officials <a href="https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/NELIS/REL/81st2021/ExhibitDocument/OpenExhibitDocument?exhibitId=49844&fileDownloadName=SB%2084_Remarks_Senator%20Nicole%20J.%20Cannizzaro_District%206.pdf">can keep</a> smaller precincts as appropriate. The bill closes no precincts. Counties in Nevada have moved toward vote centers, which allow voters to go to any polling place within the county. But this law, Senate Bill 84, was labeled “<a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/pending/search/NV2021S84">anti-voter</a>” by the Voting Rights Lab and a “<a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-july-2021">restriction</a>” by the Brennan Center.</p>
<p>New York’s <a href="https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2021/A7478">Assembly Bill 7478</a> is similar, increasing the potential maximum size of a precinct from 1,150 voters to 2,000. The old rule had been built around the <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-sweeping-package-voting-reforms-law">physical limitations of lever-operated voting machines</a>, as these voting machines could accommodate only 1,000 voters. The machines have been phased out in favor of optical scan ballots, and polling places can now accommodate more voters. The bill passed the Assembly by a vote of 148-0, and the Senate 55-8. The Voting Rights Lab called it “<a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/pending/search/NY2021A7478">anti-voter</a>.”</p>
<h2>‘Much less dramatic’</h2>
<p>Other bills target how elections are funded. The coronavirus pandemic brought <a href="https://theconversation.com/mail-in-votings-potential-problems-only-begin-at-the-post-office-an-underfunded-underprepared-decentralized-system-could-be-trouble-143798">increased costs for mailing ballots and administering a safe election</a>. Grants, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/business/zuckerberg-300-million-voting/index.html">US$300 million from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan</a>, were distributed to states and localities to help with the new administrative burdens. </p>
<p>But the decision of a private grantor to give money to some jurisdictions raised questions about whether such efforts were politically motivated and would affect voter behavior and election results. Before the election, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/politics/elections-private-grants-zuckerberg.html">reporter Ken Vogel at The New York Times</a> wrote about concerns that private subsidizing of elections “raises new legal and political questions.”</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/elections-facebook-mark-zuckerberg-d034c4c1f5a9fa3fb02aa9898493c708">State legislatures have responded</a>. <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:AR2021000H1866&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=5c4190274f966a7d3ea86fa57987bdf7&mode=current_text">Arkansas</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:AZ2021000H2569&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=5a73171008c20372f8ffba99b9f7e8ce&mode=current_text">Arizona</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:ID2021000S1168&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=39319cd1043f6839b2971a8f798c8ba1&mode=current_text">Idaho</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:ND2021000H1256&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=3da6fbe5258c835d20b1d592a2727feb&mode=current_text">North Dakota</a>, <a href="https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/legislation-summary?id=GA134-HB-110">Ohio</a>, <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:TN2021000S1534&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=067c4b2a7b62feb11c70352f377ec5db&mode=current_text">Tennessee</a> and <a href="https://custom.statenet.com/public/resources.cgi?id=ID:bill:TX2021000H2283&cuiq=cebcefa4-252a-5dcb-aeb1-7fc87d570de0&client_md=f8f6ef3450cb77a75b211375fffb89d5&mode=current_text">Texas</a> all enacted new laws regulating or prohibiting private funds for election administration, such as buying equipment or paying personnel. Ohio included the rule as a small part of an appropriations bill that passed with wide bipartisan support. The Voting Rights Lab labels all seven laws “anti-voter.”</p>
<p>These efforts to label a law as pro-voter or anti-voter, then to lump those votes into a round number of “voter suppression” efforts, miss important details and context.</p>
<p>Too often, the label is inaccurate. Certainly, with some laws, the effect on voters is going to be more significant. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-to-sue-georgia-over-its-new-voting-law-11624632808">Litigation in Georgia</a> over Senate Bill 202, for instance, reveals <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html">strong differences in opinion</a> about the bill’s effects.</p>
<p>But it is important to detail what a new law does and not simply offer a conclusion that is really an allegation about it. </p>
<p>When they are examined closely, the effect of many of these new election laws is much less dramatic. A label like “restriction” or “anti-voter” should be used when it’s likely that a voter’s experience is materially altered to make voting more difficult. My examination of these bills suggests that none of them rise to that level.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek T. Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Not all new laws labeled “voter suppression laws” are, in fact, voter suppression laws. An election law expert takes a closer look.Derek T. Muller, Bouma Fellow in Law & Professor of Law, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1596092021-05-05T12:09:03Z2021-05-05T12:09:03ZGeorgia voter suppression efforts may not change election results much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397678/original/file-20210428-13-dbwuxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C32%2C2389%2C1674&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In 2020, Georgia voters lined up for long waits to cast early ballots.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ExplainingUSVotingBillsGeorgia/e7444661453c4e02af6a19cd03f1635f/photo">AP Photo/Ron Harris</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been understandable <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-civil-rights-groups-sue-georgia-over-voting-restrictions-biden-attacks-law">outrage</a> and widespread <a href="https://time.com/5952337/corporations-condemn-georgia-voting-law/">criticism</a> of the new <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html">voting laws in Georgia</a> – and of <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-states-where-efforts-to-restrict-voting-are-escalating/">similar efforts in other states</a>. These laws would likely make <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html">voting more difficult</a>, including by reducing options for voting and making it harder to use an absentee ballot. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C22&q=Bernard+Tamas&btnG=">My research</a> indicates, however, that such measures may not change election results much, if at all.</p>
<p>Most U.S. voting districts at both the congressional and state legislative levels are safely controlled by one party or the other. Laws that slightly reduce the number of potential voters are unlikely to shift power in Congress and state legislatures significantly.</p>
<p>In addition, my analysis has found that Republican-led <a href="https://medium.com/mit-election-lab/can-voter-suppression-increase-electoral-bias-549c7023bcd2">partisan gerrymandering efforts actually work against voter suppression measures</a>, by packing Democratic voters into relatively few districts that the party wins easily. That means Democrats have fewer competitive seats to potentially lose, even when some of their supporters are kept from the polls.</p>
<h2>History of voter suppression</h2>
<p>Voting access laws have changed considerably since the end of the Jim Crow era in the mid-20th century. The American public then was far more willing to accept overt voter suppression requirements, like poll taxes and literacy tests, which were widely used in Southern states to keep <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Crow_laws">African Americans from voting</a>.</p>
<p>But the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s <a href="https://www.civilrightsteaching.org/voting-rights/voting-rights-act-beyond-headlines">undermined public support for those laws</a>. As a result, current state governments that want to reduce voter access to the polls have to find less obvious methods to do so.</p>
<p>When they devise methods to limit voting now, state governments have to claim that such measures will <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/georgia-republicans-are-pushing-dozens-election-integrity-bills-black-voters-n1259687">protect voting integrity</a> or <a href="https://www.governing.com/archive/sl-polling-place-close-ahead-of-november-elections-black-voters.html">save taxpayer money</a>. This ends up limiting the aggressiveness of voter suppression measures that states can enact, which in turn reduces their potential effectiveness.</p>
<p>Georgia’s new laws don’t really affect who is eligible to vote, but they do <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/bill-changing-georgia-voting-rules-passes-state-house/EY2MATS6SRA77HTOBVEMTJLIT4/">make voting more difficult for poorer populations</a> and those living in urban areas. Making access harder may not, however, be enough to stop people from voting. There is significant political science research showing that changes to voting options and absentee ballot use <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/upshot/georgia-election-law-turnout.html">don’t meaningfully affect voter turnout</a>.</p>
<p>For instance, permitting most citizens to vote by absentee ballot <a href="https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/new-research-voting-mail-shows-neutral-partisan-effects">does not give either party an electoral advantage</a>. Such findings suggest that restricting voting by mail won’t help one party over the other, either.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a mask handles papers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397680/original/file-20210428-15-9z563c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election workers in Georgia handled large amounts of mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential election and the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff races.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GeorgiaSenate/ff03cdaccb5f4d319e3af1aee16ccdbb/photo">AP Photo/Ben Gray</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Election margins in Georgia</h2>
<p>In situations where many districts are closely divided, a small amount of voter suppression can change the balance of power. But if most districts are clearly dominated by one party or the other, then flipping its control would require much more effort to reduce voter turnout.</p>
<p>At this point in American history, most election outcomes are predictable. Partially as a result of gerrymandering, most districts are reliably won by a large percentage of the vote. In 2020, for example, Georgia Democrats won close elections in just <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary">one out of 56 state Senate races and seven out of 180 state House races</a>.</p>
<p>This is where my research has identified the <a href="https://medium.com/mit-election-lab/can-voter-suppression-increase-electoral-bias-549c7023bcd2">opposing impacts of gerrymandering and voter suppression</a>. In Georgia, both congressional and state legislative elections are <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2021/01/15/out-of-state-money-helped-gop-keep-control-of-georgia-redistricting">impacted by gerrymandering</a>. </p>
<p>In 2020, nearly two-thirds of the Democratic seats in the Georgia General Assembly and U.S. House of Representatives were won in races where Republicans didn’t even field a candidate. Just 1% of the Democratic wins were by close margins of less than 2 percentage points. </p>
<p><iframe id="XnWFW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XnWFW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>By the 2022 midterm elections, state governments will redraw all legislative district lines. These new districts will <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-didnt-lose-big-in-2020-they-held-onto-statehouses-and-the-power-to-influence-future-elections-150237">almost certainly be equally or more gerrymandered</a> than they are today. Redistricting is therefore not likely to significantly reduce existing vote margins.</p>
<p>Unlike legislative elections, statewide races in Georgia have become far closer in recent years. In the <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/91639/Web02-state.221451/#/">2018 gubernatorial election</a>, for instance, Republican Brian Kemp beat Democrat Stacey Abrams by just over 1% of the vote. During the <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.274956/#/summary">2021 U.S. Senate runoffs</a>, Democrat Jon Ossoff beat Republican David Perdue by just over 1% of the vote and Democrat Raphael Warnock beat Republican Kelly Loeffler by 2%. </p>
<p>However, limiting absentee voting and increasing wait times at the polls may not be enough to shave off even a few percentage points of Democratic voters across all of Georgia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits wave to a crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397679/original/file-20210428-13-16jfrfm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia U.S. Senators Raphael Warnock, left, and Jon Ossoff, both Democrats, were elected in runoff elections in January 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Harris/41d4e08617294b38a6f2f2270c9c64ec/photo">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s at stake</h2>
<p>The real problem Georgia Republicans are facing is not that more Georgia Democrats are voting. Rather, the state’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/georgia-newcomers-political-shift/index.html">long-term demographic shift</a> means more Georgians will vote Democratic.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>As large groups of people move into the state from elsewhere, many of them are far <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-voters-and-black-women-transformed-georgias-politics-152741">more liberal than the current Georgia population</a>. And just like in other states, younger people in Georgia tend to be more liberal and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/09/youth-turnout-us-election-biden-victory-young-voters">prone to vote Democratic</a> than their <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/young-voters-look-play-key-role-georgia-runoffs-senate-control-n1249594">parents’ and grandparents’ generation</a>.</p>
<p>Gerrymandering districts may slow the electoral effects of these demographic changes. But creating long lines and increasing voter identification requirements will not reduce voting by enough to make a real difference. If anything, the new, restrictive laws appear to be more about <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-governor-more-popular-election-law-signed-1582323">rallying the Republican base</a> than changing electoral outcomes.</p>
<p>That said, it would be unwise to ignore even these low levels of voter suppression. If people are comfortable with these rules, that could pave the way for higher levels of suppression, which could have larger effects, up to and including unassailable single-party political control that serves to undermine U.S. democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bernard Tamas has received funding for research on voter suppression from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab and the American Political Science Association. </span></em></p>With Democratic voters already packed into a small number of districts, reducing voter turnout won’t really lower the chances of Democrats winning – or help Republicans win.Bernard Tamas, Associate Professor of Political Science, Valdosta State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1583702021-04-19T12:28:13Z2021-04-19T12:28:13ZDemocratic bill attempts to undo voter restrictions of past 15 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394892/original/file-20210413-15-m7apom.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C19%2C4225%2C2738&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and fellow Democrats address reporters on H.R. 1 at the Capitol in Washington on March 3, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CongressElectionsBill/bbb98c18fc4047448da85c56d8450148/photo?Query=H.R.%201%20House&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=49&currentItemNo=9">J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photos</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent national elections — conducted in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic — highlighted difficulties Americans face to register to vote and cast a ballot. But the right to vote can be equally diminished when voters cast a ballot but their voice is diluted by gerrymandering and other means. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1/text">For the People Act of 2021</a> (H.R.1), sponsored and passed in the House by Democrats and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/house-passes-sweeping-voting-rights-bill-88088175552f13a8e3f6f25d7bc45f6c">unanimously opposed by Republicans</a>, Congress is now considering legislation to address many of these problems. </p>
<p>These are not new problems. In my experience <a href="https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/nicholas-espiritu">as a voting rights attorney who teaches the subject in law school</a>, most of the voting rights problems addressed by H.R.1 have grown unchecked over the past 15 years. They result from the Supreme Court’s rollback of key voting rights protections, and state and local actions that made it harder for certain groups of people to vote or to have their voices matter. </p>
<p>Voter disenfranchisement was widespread before 1965, particularly for Black voters, but in that year <a href="https://ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=100">Congress passed the Voting Rights Act</a>, which is widely regarded as the most effective piece of civil rights legislation ever enacted. However, in <a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=shelby+v.+holder&hl=en&as_sdt=6&as_vis=1&oi=scholart">2013 the Supreme Court gutted a key piece of that law</a>, and many states began to implement voting restrictions that would not have been allowed had the Voting Rights Act been at full strength. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/4263/text">Congress is looking at measures</a> aimed at restoring the Voting Rights Act, it is also trying to address many voting impediments directly with H.R.1. </p>
<p>H.R.1 aims to make voter participation easier through removing barriers to things like registration and voting, but it also looks to remove structural hurdles to fairness in the political process through measures designed to limit political gerrymandering and the influence of money in politics. </p>
<p>But H.R.1 has its limitations. Most of its provisions affect the conduct of only federal elections, not state elections, and unlike the Voting Rights Act, it wouldn’t protect against new types of measures that would disenfranchise voters. </p>
<h2>Undoing discrimination</h2>
<p>Many of these voter restrictions happened because of the weakening of the protections put in place by Congress with the <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=100">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>. </p>
<p>Before that law, a number of states and localities established various mechanisms, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/literacy-test">literacy tests</a> and <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/education/teachers/curricular-resources/high-school-curricular-resources/barriers-to-voting-poll-taxes">poll taxes</a>, with the intent and effect of preventing Black Americans from voting. </p>
<p>However, if one mechanism was struck down, these jurisdictions would often engage in what the Supreme Court would come to call “<a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/383/301/#tab-opinion-1945951">unremitting and ingenious defiance of the Constitution</a>,” by simply implementing new and innovative policies that achieved the same result. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An official poster announcing the photo ID requirements for Texas voters in 2013." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394896/original/file-20210413-15-1w4ctt1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voter ID laws in Texas have seen many court challenges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VotingRightsTexas/bac7171d9a6d43f1acf999f181b17a28/photo?Query=Texas%20voter%20I.D.&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=66&currentItemNo=10">LM Otero/AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>A core provision of the Voting Rights Act, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act">Section 5</a>, was designed to address this problem. It created a “preclearance” requirement that made any proposed election changes in certain jurisdictions with a history of voting discrimination subject to review by the federal government. These jurisdictions could not make changes to voting and election rules – from statewide redistricting plans to the locations and number of <a href="http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/reports/Democracy-Diverted.pdf">polling places</a> – unless it could be proved that the changes would not further disadvantage the minority group that had experienced discrimination. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/texas-voter-id-law-struck-down/2012/08/30/4a07e270-f2ad-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html">in 2012, Section 5 prevented Texas’ voter identification law</a> from taking effect. That’s because the state failed to prove that the law would not disproportionately make it harder for Blacks and Latinos to vote. Section 5 also blocked statewide redistricting plans, including those in <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/voting-determination-letter-26">Texas in 2001</a>, and voter purge procedures in <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/crt/legacy/2014/05/30/GA-2570.pdf">Georgia in 1994</a>, because the federal government found the measures would have disproportionately harmed minority voters. </p>
<h2>Protections eliminated</h2>
<p>The protections provided by Section 5 ended in 2013. That’s when the Supreme Court, in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/12pdf/12-96_6k47.pdf">Shelby County v. Holder</a>, eliminated them. </p>
<p>After the Shelby decision, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/25/texas-voter-id-supreme-court-decision">Texas implemented its previously blocked</a> voter ID law. Only after years of lawsuits did the most onerous parts of that law, such as very limited forms of acceptable ID, get removed. </p>
<p>Since then, several states have passed similar laws. While proponents of these laws often claim they are necessary to prevent voter fraud, research has shown that such fraud is <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25522">exceedingly rare</a>. </p>
<p>H.R.1, introduced by House Democrats, attempts to address several issues that voting rights advocates say disproportionately harm voting rights for racial minorities. For example, minority voters have been found to be <a href="http://mattbarreto.com/papers/PS_VoterID.pdf">less likely</a> to have the necessary identification to vote in some jurisdictions, and <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-14-634.pdf">some studies</a> have found that the effect of these strict ID requirements has been to reduce Black voter turnout. </p>
<p>Similarly, voter purges and <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/democracy-imprisoned-a-review-of-the-prevalence-and-impact-of-felony-disenfranchisement-laws-in-the-united-states/">felony disenfranchisement</a> laws disproportionately harm Blacks and Latinos.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2021/03/three-false-claims-about-the-federal-voting-rights-bill/">H.R.1 would allow voters in federal elections</a> to present a sworn, written statement to an election official, under penalty of perjury, that states the voter is eligible to vote. More restrictive voter ID laws would still be valid in state and local elections. </p>
<p>H.R.1 would also prevent what the Brennan Center called “inaccurate” and “discriminatory” voter purges, which <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/policy-solutions/congress-must-pass-people-act#s1-sa-p3">have increased</a> since the Shelby decision, especially in jurisdictions with a history of voter discrimination previously covered by the protections in Section 5. </p>
<p>The American Bar Association has found these <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/crsj/publications/human_rights_magazine_home/voting-rights/-use-it-or-lose-it---the-problem-of-purges-from-the-registration0/">voter purges have unduly removed</a> eligible voters from voter rolls because of system errors, pauses in voting activity or even similarities in name. H.R.1 would also restore voting rights in federal elections for citizens with past felony convictions. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/electronic-or-online-voter-registration.aspx">most states allow online voter registration</a>, nine still do not. H.R.1 would modernize voter registration in federal elections nationwide by providing for online voter registration, automatic registration through agencies like the Department of Motor Vehicles and Election Day registration. The legislation would also implement national standards for early voting and voting by mail in federal elections.</p>
<p>These changes enable greater participation of all voters. They create some protections in states that have instituted requirements that discriminate against minority voters. </p>
<h2>Not just voting changes</h2>
<p>H.R.1 would also make significant changes to address the effects of partisan interests. </p>
<p>Currently, most state legislatures are responsible for redrawing congressional districts, and the Supreme Court has <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">essentially eliminated</a> the possibility that these districts can be challenged in federal court as unconstitutional. </p>
<p>This has increasingly resulted in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/what-is-gerrymandering.html">gerrymandered districts</a> that are drawn with the express purpose of electing or reelecting candidates in the majority party – a system characterized as candidates picking voters instead of voters picking candidates.</p>
<p>H.R.1 would establish new rules for how districts can be drawn, banning partisan gerrymanders. It would also require that they be drawn by independent redistricting commissions, largely taking self-interested politicians of either party out of the process. The legislation also proposes changes to laws regarding <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/8/18253609/hr-1-pelosi-house-democrats-anti-corruption-mcconnell">money in politics</a> by creating greater disclosure requirements and a fund to match small-donor contributions. </p>
<h2>Many forms of disenfranchisement</h2>
<p>In my judgment, H.R.1’s changes would address many issues that can potentially limit voters’ ability to participate in elections and have an equal say in the outcome of an election. </p>
<p>However, as both the history of the Voting Rights Act and current efforts by state legislatures show, voter disenfranchisement takes many forms. Many actions that are presented as neutral on their face, from voter ID laws to redistricting plans to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html">prohibitions on mobile voting centers</a>, can have a racially disparate impact. </p>
<p>The authors of H.R.1 may hope it addresses many of the current hurdles to voting rights. But most of H.R.1’s voting changes only apply to federal elections, and critical state elections might still be subject to similar forms of disenfranchisement. </p>
<p>And even if the act is passed, history reminds us that there is always the possibility of new and even more ingenious forms of defiance, which may require the revival of the kinds of pre-clearance measures first put in place by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158370/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Espíritu works for the National Immigration Law Center, and consults with the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative. </span></em></p>As GOP-run statehouses across the country tighten voting restrictions, a bill in Congress would, its Democratic sponsors say, undo more than 15 years of moves to make voting harder.Nicholas Espíritu, Lecturer in Law, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489642020-10-29T14:56:05Z2020-10-29T14:56:05ZWhether it’s for Trump or Biden, Americans who trust others are more likely to vote<p>Forecasting election results is hard. Predicting who will turn out to vote in the United States is not. </p>
<p>The rich are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/83/2/363/5513862">more likely to vote</a> than the poor. The better educated <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00425.x?casa_token=U4ZLSEAPEzkAAAAA:YlB_R1zg2GEBnLlWpwVJC1knfdZ_-0w1ru1xBTB8bDg9CwBc5L4DZ3phe-uoPqrVNSdPc9gJf5nNdH4">are more likely to vote</a> than the less educated. White people <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/74/2/286/1937922">are more likely to vote</a> than racialized Americans.</p>
<p>As a scholar who has studied trust and how it matters for years, I can say that generalized trust — <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9784431539353">an expectation of good will and benign intent of others</a> — is also a powerful predictor of voter turnout. </p>
<p>Whomever they vote for, Americans who are trusting are more likely to have either cast their ballots already or will on election day than Americans who do not trust easily. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a flowered shirt puts her ballot into a ballot box outdoors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366168/original/file-20201028-15-nwmqne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter drops her ballot off during early voting in Athens, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Bazemore)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trust inequality can explain disparity in voter turnout. My research shows that, regionally across the United States, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00380253.2019.1711259">trust is lower in the South</a>, and Southerners <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/voter-turnout-united-states">are less likely</a> to vote. I also show that <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/E1417.short">those who feel they have less power in society are less able to trust</a>. This can, at least partly, explain <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/why-are-the-poor-and-minorities-less-likely-to-vote/282896/">why the poor and racialized Americans are less likely to vote</a>.</p>
<p>The promise of democracy in part rests on citizens being able to trust equally.</p>
<h2>Post-election data</h2>
<p>My study of elections relies largely on turnout data from post-election surveys. Two major ongoing surveys that document voter turnout in the U.S. are the <a href="https://electionstudies.org/">American National Election Studies (ANES)</a> and the <a href="https://gss.norc.org/">U.S. General Social Survey (GSS)</a>. </p>
<p>Since 1948, the ANES has asked respondents after each presidential election whether they voted. The mission of the ANES data is to provide high-quality data to help researchers understand “<a href="https://electionstudies.org/about-us/">why does America vote as it does on election day</a>.” </p>
<p>The GSS has interviewed American citizens — annually from 1972 to 1993 and biannually since 1994 — to ask similarly whether they voted in presidential elections. See the turnout information from the 2016 presidential below:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph shows voter turnout in the 2016 election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366012/original/file-20201028-23-1f3mmr4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voter turnout data from the 2016 election, according to ANES and GSS.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Author)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html">61.4 per cent of the voting-age population reported voting</a> in the 2016 presidential election. In comparison to this number, the graph above shows the ANES significantly overestimated voter turnout at 85 per cent. </p>
<p>That’s not unusual. Post-election surveys often <a href="https://pprg.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/The-Turnout-Gap-in-Surveys.pdf">overestimate voter turnout due to reasons</a> that include social desirability response bias (the tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favourably by others), recall errors (the gap grows as more time passes between the election and the survey interview) and biased non-response (people who do not vote are especially unlikely to participate in surveys).</p>
<p>Nonetheless, these post-election surveys are useful for studying, for example, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9468-2">how race, gender and socioeconomic class might shape voting behaviour</a>, so I’ve included data from both surveys in my research. </p>
<h2>Trusting Americans are more likely to vote</h2>
<p>Previous research has also suggested that <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1532673X04271903?casa_token=TD1oZ-nvLjcAAAAA:A_HBaKeKlwmG8UKFuDLV9DX1oSazLw-AR3qv62YHkzjCt0sJbaxAhHEsP7UVig1MawkTR15T9QoP_A">trust plays an important role in political participation</a>. Voting is a typical form of political participation. That means we would expect voter turnout to be higher among Americans who trust than those who do not trust easily.</p>
<p>In many surveys, the widely used statement to measure overall trust is: “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/sf/article-abstract/97/1/465/4969879">Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you cannot be too careful in life?</a>” This statement was part of both the the ANES and the GSS surveys. </p>
<p>My analysis of the data from both surveys shows that Americans who think “most people can be trusted” are much more likely to vote than those who think “cannot be too careful in life.” The pattern is also highly consistent when I separate the analysis on a yearly basis. Higher trust is associated with a higher turnout in every U.S. presidential election since 1948.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph shows the voting gap in U.S. presidential elections between 'trusters' and 'mistrusters'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366015/original/file-20201028-21-xmcdq6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The voting gap in U.S. presidential elections between ‘trusters’ and ‘mistrusters’ based on ANES and GSS data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Author)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Taking into account race, gender, age, level of education and household income, as well as the year of the election, Americans who trust are about 70 per cent more likely to vote than those who do not trust, regardless of which survey we use (72 per cent from ANES; 70 per cent from GSS). </p>
<h2>Trust impacts Republicans more than Democrats</h2>
<p>But does trust affect Republican voters and Democrat voters differently?</p>
<p>To answer this question, I compare turnout gaps between “trusters” and “mistrusters” among Republican voters and Democrat voters. </p>
<p>The graph below shows that overall the voting gap between trusters and mistrusters is greater among those who vote Republican than those who vote Democrat. Specifically, based on the cumulative data from the ANES (1948-2016), the left side of the graph shows that while the voting gap between trusters and mistrusters is only about one percentage point (38 per cent versus 37 per cent) for Democratic voters, the gap is 13 percentage points for Republican voters (40 per cent versus 27 per cent).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bar graphs show the impact of trust on those who vote Republican versus those who vote Democrat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366019/original/file-20201028-21-1edz3q8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The impact of trust on those who vote Republican versus those who vote Democrat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The right side of the graph focuses on the 2016 election only using data from the 2018 GSS. It shows that while the voting gap between trusters and mistrusters was seven percentage points among Clinton voters, the gap was 12 percentage points among Trump voters. </p>
<p>These findings suggest trust has a greater impact on Republican voters than those who vote Democrat.</p>
<h2>Why are minorities less likely to vote?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/why-are-the-poor-and-minorities-less-likely-to-vote/282896/">Racialized Americans are often found to have a low voter turnout</a>. The Pew Research Center <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/">has reported that the turnout rate in the 2016 presidential election</a> was 65.3 per cent among white registered voters, 59.6 per cent among Blacks, 49.3 per cent among Asians and 47.6 per cent among Hispanics. </p>
<p>Common explanations for why minorities are less likely to vote include <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/poll-prri-voter-suppression/565355/">voter suppression</a> and <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/crsj/publications/human_rights_magazine_home/voting-in-2020/why-minority-voters-have-a-lower-voter-turnout/">systematic discrimination</a>. However, in his recent book <em>The Turnout Gap</em>, political scientist Bernard Fraga has argued instead it’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/ca/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/turnout-gap-race-ethnicity-and-political-inequality-diversifying-america?format=PB&isbn=9781108465922">the sense of political inequality</a> that largely explains the majority-minority gap in turnout. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wears a mask and a Let My People Vote T-shirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366186/original/file-20201028-21-1tluqa8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman takes part in a voting parade on Oct. 24 in Orlando, Fla. The event was organized by Florida Rights Restoration Coalition in partnership with other local groups including #walkthevote, a national movement to encourage voter participation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Octavio Jones/AP Images for #walkthevote)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turnout gaps</h2>
<p>Trust is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/democracy-and-trust/B46A44BAC288AACD3C79C55BEBDBC7C5">associated with control, political efficacy and sense of political empowerment</a>. Can <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=OL9EDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA231&dq=info:Fd_sFJkw5XUJ:scholar.google.com&ots=FUwM8DhaZS&sig=al8fBrL1Gh5aAIjmyOzQHIO7J3c&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">minorities’ lower trust</a> explain their lower turnout?</p>
<p>To show how trust can help explain the turnout gap across racial groups, I estimate the average probability of voting for white people, Black people and other racialized Americans using data from both surveys. The base model includes race and year variables, while the second model adds a trust variable to the base model. Here’s a visualization:</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four line graphs show Trust and gaps in voter turnout of white people, Black people and other racialized Americans" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366032/original/file-20201028-23-1j0xi6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trust and gaps in voter turnout of white people, Black people and other racialized Americans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Author)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Graph A shows that the average turnout rate among white voters over an 18-year span is 78 per cent, 69 per cent among Black voters and 63 per cent among other racialized Americans. </p>
<p>When taking into account the trust differences among these groups, these numbers become 76 per cent, 74 per cent and 64 per cent respectively (Graph B). In other words, the relative gaps in turnout have become significantly smaller. For example, the gap between white voters and Black voters in Graph A is nine percentage points, but after controlling for trust, it’s only a relatively insignificant two percentage points. These findings are based on the ANES data. </p>
<p>Replicating the analysis using data from the GSS shows a consistent pattern. See Graphs C and D.</p>
<p>What does this show us in broader terms?</p>
<p>Democracy only works well when citizens participate in the democratic process and participate equally. But in the United States, lack of trust is eroding democracy’s promise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cary Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Democracy only works well when citizens participate in the democratic process and participate equally. But in the United States, lack of trust is eroding democracy’s promise.Cary Wu, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478302020-10-16T11:01:13Z2020-10-16T11:01:13ZJudges used to stay out of election disputes, but this year lawsuits could well decide the presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363556/original/file-20201014-19-ll7a48.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A poll worker places vote-by-mail ballots into a ballot box set up at the Miami-Dade Election Department headquarters on Oct. 14, 2020 in Doral, Fla.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/poll-workers-places-vote-by-mail-ballots-into-a-ballot-box-news-photo/1280201205">Joe Raedle/Getty Images News via Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Throughout American history judges have generally <a href="https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6366&context=ylj">tried</a> to avoid getting involved in political questions, including litigation about elections. They followed Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter’s famous <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/328/549">advice</a> to avoid “embroilment” in “the political thicket” of “party contests and party interests.”</p>
<p>This tradition began to <a href="http://www.electionlawissues.org/video-modules/basics-of-election-litigation">erode</a> in the 1960s, when courts took up cases involving <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/redistricting-and-the-supreme-court-the-most-significant-cases.aspx">legislative redistricting and gerrymandering</a>. And since the Supreme Court’s 2000 <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/#tab-opinion-1960861">Bush v. Gore</a> decision, which effectively decided that year’s presidential election, political parties have increasingly turned to the courts in search of electoral advantage.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A portrait of Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363521/original/file-20201014-23-w4nyla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Courts ought not enter ‘the political thicket,’ Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter cautioned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://npg.si.edu/object/npg_NPG.93.388.11">National Portrait Gallery, Smithsonian Institution</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prior to 2000, an average of 96 election law cases <a href="http://www.electionlawissues.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/5411/el-mod1slides.pdf">were</a> brought every year in state and federal courts. By 2004, that average jumped to 254, most of them filed at the state level.</p>
<p>This year, the <a href="https://healthyelections-case-tracker.stanford.edu/">Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project reports</a> that as of Oct. 15, 365 such cases have been filed in 44 states.</p>
<p>Many of those cases arise from state efforts to respond to the difficulties of campaigning and voting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Democrats generally have supported efforts to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/12/873878423/voting-and-elections-divide-republicans-and-democrats-like-little-else-heres-why">making voting easier</a>, such as in Michigan, where they <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-michigan/michigan-court-rules-that-late-arriving-ballots-must-be-counted-idUSKBN2692II">were successful</a> in getting the courts to extend the period during which late-arriving mail ballots could be legally counted. Republicans generally have opposed those efforts.</p>
<h2>When the voting happens</h2>
<p>This year’s election-related litigation began to emerge in the spring as states tried to cope with the pandemic’s first wave during the political primary season. </p>
<p>Those cases fell into two major categories. Some were filed to try to change the date when people voted in presidential primaries. Others focused on how people voted in those primaries and the general election.</p>
<p>Sixteen states <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html">changed</a> the dates of their primaries, and most did so without resorting to litigation. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, some states faced lawsuits over the timing of presidential primaries, filed by political candidates and public officials, including in New York and Wisconsin. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A picture of Andrew Yang speaking into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363546/original/file-20201014-21-1nnf1az.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang was involved in election-related litigation regarding the Democratic presidential primary in New York.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-andrew-yang-speaks-during-news-photo/1204313086">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In April, Andrew Yang, then a Democratic presidential candidate, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6879404-Complaint-Yang-Et-Al-v-NYS-BOE.html">sued</a> the New York State Board of Elections after it effectively canceled the Democratic presidential primary. He argued that doing so was illegal since he already had met the requirements for having his name to appear on the ballot. One month after the suit was filed, a judge agreed with Yang and <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000171-e73b-d2fd-a9f5-e73ba1430000">ordered</a> the state to proceed with its presidential primary.</p>
<p>Wisconsin proved to be a particularly fertile ground for litigation over its April primary. In one case, the Wisconsin legislature prevailed in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/wisconsin-supreme-court-order-blocking-gov-evers-s-executive-order-seeking-to-postpone-in-person-voting-in-tuesday-s-elections/8b825494-999b-4fd9-bd03-0c67daa3d3e2/?itid=lk_inline_manual_1">challenging</a> the governor’s executive order postponing in-person voting.</p>
<p>In another Wisconsin case, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with the Republican National Committee and the state party when it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/politics/read-supreme-court-decision-on-wisconsin-primary-election/index.html">blocked</a> a plan to extend the period to return absentee ballots in the primary election.</p>
<h2>How the voting happens</h2>
<p>In cases concerning the ways people could vote, Democrats in Kansas <a href="https://hayspost.com/posts/2f25f992-e93c-410d-b2d0-95d7930798e5">sued</a> to force Secretary of State Scott Schwab to implement a law permitting voters to cast ballots from any polling station within their home county. Schwab argued that the complexity of developing necessary administrative regulations prevented him from doing do so in time for this year’s election.</p>
<p>A state court judge dismissed the suit but said that county officials could, if they wished, implement the Kansas <a href="https://www.kake.com/story/40318191/new-kansas-law-would-let-you-vote-anywhere-in-your-county-on-election-day">Vote Anywhere Act</a> on their own without waiting for the state to act.</p>
<p>In Ohio, a federal judge also <a href="https://www.jurist.org/news/2020/04/ohio-requests-a-federal-judge-dismiss-a-lawsuit-against-the-state-for-the-new-primary-election-vote-policy/">dismissed</a> an American Civil Liberties Union suit seeking to extend the deadline for absentee voting for the state’s presidential primary and move from in-person to universal mail balloting. The plaintiffs claimed that the state’s inefficient absentee-voting system would disenfranchise people through no fault of their own unless the deadline was changed and that in-person voting during the pandemic would pose a health risk.</p>
<h2>Focus on mail-in ballots</h2>
<p>Many of this year’s election-related cases <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/voting-rights-litigation-2020">have focused</a> specifically on mail-in ballots. This is not surprising given President Donald Trump’s well-publicized <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-on-voting-by-mail-says-its-safe-from-fraud-and-disease-141847">but baseless</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/28/906676695/ignoring-fbi-and-fellow-republicans-trump-continues-assault-on-mail-in-voting">attacks</a> on voting by mail.</p>
<p>Some of this litigation has been brought to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-voting-state-elections-lawsuits-7104cfbeb854710ebe7ff9528560249a">expand</a> opportunities to cast that kind of ballot or to ease the requirements for doing so. Other cases have been <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-2020-ballot-witness-notary-public-requirement-20200925-sg4n6sf6prd5hetrzl6iqml25a-story.html">filed</a> by groups opposing such changes and raising concerns about voter fraud.</p>
<p>Recent rulings in some of those cases have made voting by mail more difficult; others have made it easier.</p>
<p>In the first category, the U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a55_dc8e.pdf">ruled</a> on Oct. 5 that South Carolina could require people voting by mail to have another person sign their ballot as a witness. However, over the objection of Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas, the court declined to invalidate the more than 20,000 ballots that had been cast prior to its ruling.</p>
<p>Three days later, in a victory for Wisconsin’s Republican Party, a federal appeals court <a href="https://www.wpr.org/federal-court-blocks-extension-wisconsin-absentee-ballot-deadline">upheld</a> that state’s requirement that in order to be counted, mail-in ballots must be in the hands of election officials by 8 p.m. on Election Day.</p>
<p>But, also on October 8, Justice Elena Kagan <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/supreme-court-mail-in-ballots-montana/index.html">turned down</a> a request from Montana Republicans to block some counties from proactively mailing ballots to voters starting the next day.</p>
<p>In another victory for supporters of mail balloting, a federal judge in Pennsylvania <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pennsylvania-trump-lawsuit-voting/2020/10/10/44c16ba6-0b2c-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html">dismissed</a> a lawsuit filed by the Trump campaign seeking, among other things, to block the use of drop boxes as receptacles for mail ballots. </p>
<h2>Full employment for election lawyers</h2>
<p>November 3 is <a href="https://prospect.org/justice/will-the-supreme-court-decide-the-election/">unlikely to end</a> litigation to resolve election-related disputes. In fact, both the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/politics/biden-legal-challenges-trump.html">Biden</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/27/trump-legal-network-election-day-fight-422035">Trump</a> campaigns have assembled armies of lawyers who will be ready to bring lawsuits in the election’s aftermath.</p>
<p>President Trump already has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/elections/trump-supreme-court-election-day.html">indicated</a> that he expects the Supreme Court to again resolve a contested presidential election.</p>
<p>For someone who <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=10050">studies</a> the complex intersections of politics and law, the use of litigation to resolve electoral disputes that we are seeing this year is a reminder of what the famous French aristocrat and author Alexis de Tocqueville <a href="https://xroads.virginia.edu/%7EHyper/DETOC/1_ch16.htm">observed</a> early in the 19th century: namely, that “Scarcely any political question arises in the United States that is not resolved, sooner or later, into a judicial question.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white sign with red text that says 'Every Vote Counts.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2041%2C1103&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363541/original/file-20201014-19-1e270jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Every vote counts – but what does it mean when election results go to court?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/presidential-candidate-al-gore-supporters-carry-a-sign-news-photo/51569584">Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nonetheless, when courts and judges take sides in cases that shape the outcome of a hotly contested election, they open themselves up, as Frankfurter warned, to <a href="https://yale.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.12987/yale/9780300093797.001.0001/upso-9780300093797">charges</a> that they are making purely partisan decisions rather than strictly following the law. That is why public confidence in the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.democracy.uci.edu/files/docs/conferences/2011/SemetPersilyAnsolabehere.pdf">took a hit</a> in the aftermath of its Bush v. Gore decision.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Whatever decisions judges make this year, the rush to the courthouse to shape the 2020 election will pose real challenges for their legitimacy, which ultimately <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2998595?seq=6#metadata_info_tab_contents">depends</a> on the public’s belief that they are not simply political actors. </p>
<p>And if the Supreme Court again decides who becomes president, it may further weaken its already <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/07/24/confidence-in-the-us-supreme-court-is-declining-and-that-puts-its-decisions-at-risk-from-congress/">diminished standing</a> with the American public and deepen the divide in an already dangerously polarized nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Austin Sarat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lawsuits are being argued in courthouses across the country over the conduct of the election. That could lead to the public losing confidence in the election’s legitimacy.Austin Sarat, Associate Provost and Associate Dean of the Faculty and Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science, Amherst CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1467162020-10-15T12:26:55Z2020-10-15T12:26:55ZAs few as 1 in 10 homeless people vote in elections – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361211/original/file-20201001-18-1e6iatm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4202%2C2492&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">American citizens, even homeless ones, still have the right to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakCaliforniaHomeless/eaa27ff159b04699b6e0eeec105b5c3b/photo">AP Photo/Ben Margot</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a year in which every vote – and every voter – is under scrutiny, many homeless people will have a very hard time <a href="https://endhomelessness.org/how-three-providers-are-conducting-voter-engagement-efforts/">casting their ballots</a>.</p>
<p>That’s the conclusion from a review of how state voting laws, regulations and practices affect homeless people conducted by Kristian Berhost, Robert Nordahl, Samantha Abelove and Leana Mason, four master’s of public administration graduate students <a href="https://priceschool.usc.edu/people/dora-kingsley-vertenten/">I supervised</a> at the University of Southern California’s Price School of Public Policy.</p>
<p>This situation is, in part, a legacy of the country’s original requirement that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-right-to-vote-is-not-in-the-constitution-144531">to be eligible to vote, a person had to be a white male landowner</a>. That rule has changed over the years to include women, people of color, renters and people with mortgages. But the idea remains that a person must have a residence, a sustained presence in a particular community to be allowed to vote.</p>
<p>That concept was reinforced by the 2002 <a href="https://www.eac.gov/about_the_eac/help_america_vote_act.aspx">Help America Vote Act</a>. Under that legislation, many states now ask would-be voters for a mailing address; proof of rent, homeownership or utility service at an address; or evidence of having lived in the community for a period of time. People who are homeless have trouble meeting these demands. </p>
<p>As a scholar of public policy, I believe American citizens should be able to vote in the communities they are part of.</p>
<p><iframe id="LGYMx" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LGYMx/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who are homeless voters?</h2>
<p>My students and I found that there are few statistics about homeless voters. Statistics that do exist are kept by groups who advocate for the rights of homeless people. The best available data show how few homeless people vote: In 2008, about 60% of the U.S. homeless population was a U.S. citizen 18 or over and therefore generally eligible to vote, but only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-016-9346-6">one in three was registered</a>.</p>
<p>In 2012, <a href="https://nationalhomeless.org/care-homeless-vote/">only about 10% of homeless people</a> actually voted. By comparison, <a href="http://www.electproject.org/2012g">54% of the country’s voting-age population</a> voted that year, roughly the same share as cast ballots in the <a href="http://www.electproject.org/2016g">most recent presidential election</a>, in 2016.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.hudexchange.info/homelessness-assistance/ahar/#2019-reports">half a million Americans</a> are homeless, two-thirds of them living in <a href="https://www.hudexchange.info/resource/5948/2019-ahar-part-1-pit-estimates-of-homelessness-in-the-us/">just nine states</a>:
California, New York, Florida, Texas, Washington, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Georgia. </p>
<p>Many homeless people are already disadvantaged in American society. In the U.S., homeless people are more likely than their fellow citizens who have homes to have been <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/newsletter_article/The_homeless_mentally_ill">diagnosed with a mental illness</a> and to have been <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/housing.html">incarcerated in the past</a>. An estimated <a href="https://www.disabilityscoop.com/2009/07/16/homeless-report/4153/">two in five</a> homeless people have a disability.</p>
<p>Homeless people are also more likely to be <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-09-23/10-facts-about-homelessness-in-america">nonwhite</a> – with people of <a href="https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/homelessness-indian-country-hidden-critical-problem">Native American</a> and Pacific Islander descent making up a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-06/why-is-homelessness-such-a-problem-in-u-s-cities">far larger share of the homeless population</a> than they do of the U.S. as a whole.</p>
<p>By the end of 2020, there may be many more homeless Americans than there were at the end of 2019: One estimate indicates massive unemployment as a result of the pandemic could <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/us/homelessness-unemployment-increase-report-pandemic-trnd/index.html">boost homelessness by 40% to 45%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People stand in line." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361212/original/file-20201001-15-hh0vcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People wait in line to file unemployment claims in March 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic set in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakCalifornia/00421689970a40f8a7b7a9bfcb3bc863/photo">AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Excluded from voter rolls</h2>
<p>With so many homeless voters having mental illness diagnoses, they are more susceptible to the laws in 39 states and the District of Columbia that let judges take away a person’s right to vote on the basis that <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/21/thousands-lose-right-to-vote-under-incompetence-laws">a mental illness makes them incompetent</a>.</p>
<p>People who have been in prison or jail, as <a href="https://nlihc.org/resource/formerly-incarcerated-people-are-nearly-10-times-more-likely-be-homeless">6% of homeless people have</a>, can have difficulty voting too. Maine and Vermont are the only places where even <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/2019/06/11/in-just-two-states-all-prisoners-can-vote-here-s-why-few-do">serving inmates can vote</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights.aspx">16 states</a>, release from incarceration is enough to reinstate the right to vote. In 21 others, former inmates’ voting rights are <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights.aspx">restricted until their sentences are complete</a>, including any probation or parole. And in 11 states, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights.aspx">convicted felons face further restrictions</a>, including post-sentence waiting periods, requirements to pay all fines and fees, or even that they must seek a governor’s pardon before being allowed to vote again.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rows of tents in squares to keep them apart." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361213/original/file-20201001-15-132ayd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As cities responded to the pandemic, they moved homeless people to different locations – sometimes with less public transit and less access to voting locations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakHomelessEncampments/ae631e03e75044e69f7c06f19697cc1d/photo">AP Photo/Noah Berger</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Barriers to homeless voters</h2>
<p>Homeless people have additional challenges to voting beyond the problems that come with being from a poor background, being a racial minority or suffering from health problems.</p>
<p>Even registering to vote usually <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/Documents/Elections/The_Canvass_May_2016.pdf">requires proof of residence</a>. Some states require that a person <a href="https://www.streetsensemedia.org/article/homeless-vote-rights-study-united-states/">prove they have lived in the state</a>, or the municipality, for a period of time before the election. These requirements are difficult – if not impossible – for homeless people to fulfill.</p>
<p>Many states also require some <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx">sort of identification</a> to prove the prospective voter’s age and U.S. citizenship. After 9/11, laws in 26 states were changed to <a href="https://nlchp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ID_Barriers.pdf">require a permanent address to obtain a government identification card</a>, a luxury that homeless people, by definition, do not have.</p>
<p>Some local authorities even go so far as to <a href="https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/takeaway/segments/investigation-maps-process-homeless-relocation-programs">ship homeless people elsewhere</a>, effectively preventing them from voting where they may already be registered or requiring them to begin the process again. In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/us/homeless-busing-seattle-san-francisco.html">San Francisco and Seattle</a>, for instance, city officials have tried to reduce their cities’ homeless population by <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Hundreds-of-homeless-people-board-a-bus-out-of-SF-14188436.php">busing homeless people to other towns</a>. </p>
<p>As part of efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus, San Francisco has <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/09/coronavirus-san-francisco-to-move-200-homeless-residents-from-hotels-into-housing/">moved homeless people from one place to another within city limits</a> as well – at times putting them far from locations where they could register to vote.</p>
<p>In the past, homeless people often had trouble getting to polling places because they are typically reliant on public transit, which may not serve voting locations. This year, the coronavirus is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/pollworkers-election-coronavirus/2020/09/24/ba13acf4-f9b9-11ea-89e3-4b9efa36dc64_story.html">discouraging people from being willing to staff polling places</a>, so there may be even fewer places to actually vote. During its June primary, for instance, the city of Louisville, Kentucky, had <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/us/jose-andres-kentucky-primary-trnd/index.html">just one polling place</a> – to serve <a href="https://elect.ky.gov/Resources/Pages/Registration-Statistics.aspx">more than 600,000 registered voters</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A collection of tents in a park near Los Angeles city hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361210/original/file-20201001-17-uwauu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some homeless people live within sight of Los Angeles City Hall but may have trouble casting ballots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LosAngelesHomelessHousingCosts/9df61fba7d414b9aaf8caa4df130c2a0/photo">AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There are some protections</h2>
<p>Many <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-election-disaster-shows-how-bad-voting-in-2020-can-be-141678">voting-rights safeguards were weakened</a> in 2013 when the Supreme Court struck down key elements of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. </p>
<p>But some protections remain for homeless voters. In 1984, for instance, a federal court in New York held that states cannot deny a person the right to vote <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/608/696/1464605/">just because they are homeless</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Since then, Congress has enacted several laws that help homeless people vote – though mainly as side effects of laws with wider intents. For instance, the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act <a href="https://www.ada.gov/ada_voting/ada_voting_ta.htm">ensures voting rights and assistance</a> for people with mental and physical diagnoses that may make it <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/26/ada-30th-anniversary-voting-access-still-issue-made-worse-covid-19-coronavirus/5467913002/">hard for them to cast ballots</a>.</p>
<p>The 1993 National Voter Registration Act requires states to offer <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-national-voter-registration-act">voter registration forms at all public assistance offices</a>, where homeless people may go seeking food or housing aid. </p>
<p>But the low voter registration and voting rates of homeless people signal to me that it’s not enough. States and local governments could step forward and find ways to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/10/14/923306237/in-cleveland-homeless-get-a-helping-hand-with-mail-in-ballots">make it easier for their homeless residents to vote</a>, which would help fulfill the nation’s pledge that all citizens can have a say in how they are governed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dora Kingsley Vertenten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Debt-free property ownership is no longer a requirement for voting rights, but the idea remains that a person must have a residence in a particular community to be allowed to vote.Dora Kingsley Vertenten, Professor of Public Policy, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1472342020-09-30T17:09:13Z2020-09-30T17:09:13ZTrump’s encouragement of GOP poll watchers echoes an old tactic of voter intimidation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360888/original/file-20200930-14-14bkswb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=36%2C36%2C5866%2C3938&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Trump during the Sept. 29, 2020 debate with Joe Biden.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2020Debate/fa2aba7454a24116a7ce1d8f14dfc17c/photo?Query=Trump%20AND%20debate&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=3754&currentItemNo=9">Olivier Douliery/Pool via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the first presidential debate, Donald Trump was <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/518885-trump-urges-supporters-to-watch-ballots-after-wallace-asks-if-hell">asked by moderator Chris Wallace</a> if he would “urge” his followers to remain calm during a prolonged vote-counting period after the election, if the winner were unclear. </p>
<p>“I am urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully because that is what has to happen, I am urging them to do it,” Trump said. “I hope it’s going to be a fair election, and if it’s a fair election, I am 100 percent on board, but if I see tens of thousands of ballots being manipulated, I can’t go along with that.”</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/29/918317570/democrats-worry-gop-efforts-to-recruit-poll-watchers-may-lead-to-voter-intimidat">wasn’t the first time Trump</a> has said he wants to recruit poll watchers to monitor the vote. And <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/30/trump-debate-poll-watchers-election-even-bigger-threat-this-year-consent-decree/#2b23010a1b59">to some</a>, the image of thousands of Trump supporters crowding into polling places to monitor voters looks like voter intimidation, a practice long used in the U.S. by political parties to suppress one side’s vote and affect an election’s outcome. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://ugapress.org/book/9780820357744/voter-suppression-in-u-s-elections/">history of voter suppression</a> in the U.S. – including attempts to stop <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/republicans-voter-suppression.html">Black</a> and <a href="https://splinternews.com/the-forgotten-history-of-how-latinos-earned-the-right-t-1793862634">Latino people</a> from voting – Republican tactics in the 1981 New Jersey gubernatorial race are worth highlighting. That incident sparked a court order – a “consent decree” – forbidding the GOP from using a variety of voter intimidation methods, including armed poll watchers.</p>
<p>The 2020 presidential election will be the first in nearly 40 years conducted without the protections afforded by that decree.</p>
<h2>The National Ballot Security Task Force</h2>
<p>In November 1981, voters in several cities saw posters at polling places printed in bright red letters. “WARNING,” they read. “This area is being patrolled by <a href="https://www.wnyc.org/story/armed-men-once-patrolled-polls-will-they-reappear-november/">the National Ballot Security Task Force</a>.” </p>
<p>And voters soon encountered the patrols themselves. About 200 were deployed statewide, many of them uniformed and carrying guns. </p>
<p>In Trenton, patrol members asked a Black voter for her registration card and turned her away when she didn’t produce it. Latino voters were similarly prevented from voting in Vineland, while in Newark some voters were physically chased from the polls by patrolmen, one of whom warned a poll worker not to stay at her post after dark. Similar scenes played out in at least two other cities, Camden and Atlantic City.</p>
<p>Weeks later, after a recount, Republican <a href="https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/the-governor-at-80/">Thomas Kean</a> won the election by fewer than 1,800 votes. </p>
<p>Democrats, however, soon won a significant victory. With local civil rights activists, they discovered that the “ballot security” operation was a joint project of the state and national Republican committees. They filed suit in December 1981, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/dnc.v.rnc/1981%20complaint.pdf">charging Republicans with “efforts to intimidate, threaten and coerce</a> duly qualified black and Hispanic voters.” </p>
<p>In November 1982, the case was settled when the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/dnc-v-rnc-consent-decree">Republican committees signed a federal consent decree</a> – a court order applicable to activities anywhere in the U.S. – agreeing not to use race in selecting targets for ballot security activities and to refrain from deploying armed poll watchers.</p>
<p>That order <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576858203/decades-old-consent-decree-lifted-against-rncs-ballot-security-measures">expired in 2018</a> after Democrats failed to convince a judge to renew it.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/mark-krasovic">a professor</a> who teaches and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/N/bo22961428.html">writes</a> about New Jersey history, I’m alarmed by the expiration because I know that Republicans in 1981 relied not only on armed poll watchers but also on a history of white vigilantism and intimidation in the Garden State. These issues <a href="https://theintercept.com/2020/06/19/militia-vigilantes-police-brutality-protests/">resonate</a> today in the midst of the Black Lives Matter movement and continued GOP attempts to <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/04/voter-purges-wisconsin-republican-election/">suppress the 2020 vote</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505273-red-states-moving-bills-to-curb-mail-in-voting-pandemic">in numerous states</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Rep. John Lewis with House Democrats before passing the Voting Rights Advancement Act to eliminate potential state and local voter suppression laws, Dec. 29, 2019. The Senate has not taken up the bill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Voting-Rights/7544ee86afe644da81c12e4623974a4e/12/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Republican ‘ballot security’ plan</h2>
<p>Considered an early referendum on Ronald Reagan’s presidency, New Jersey’s 1981 gubernatorial race held special meaning for Republicans nationwide. Kean – with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/06/02/the-dirty-trickster">campaign manager Roger Stone</a> at the helm – promised corporate tax cuts and relied heavily on Reagan’s endorsement.</p>
<p>To secure victory, state and national Republican party officials devised a project they claimed would prevent Democratic cheating at the polls.</p>
<p>In the summer of 1981, the Republican National Committee sent an operative named John A. Kelly to New Jersey to run the ballot security effort. Kelly had first been hired by the Republican National Committee in 1980 to work in the Reagan campaign, and he served as one of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/13/nyregion/kelly-reported-on-reagan-s-appointees.html">RNC’s liaisons to the Reagan White House</a>. </p>
<p>Later, after he was revealed as the organizer of the National Ballot Security Task Force – and after The New York Times discovered that he had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/13/nyregion/kelly-reported-on-reagan-s-appointees.html">lied about graduating from Notre Dame and had been arrested for impersonating a police officer</a> – Republicans distanced themselves from him. </p>
<p>In August 1981, under the guise of the National Ballot Security Task Force, Kelly sent about 200,000 letters marked “return to sender” to voters in heavily Black and Latino districts. Those whose letters were returned had their names added to a list of voters to be challenged at the polls on Election Day, a tactic known as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-voter-caging">voter caging</a>. </p>
<p>In the Newark area, Kelly produced a list of 20,000 voters whom he deemed potentially fraudulent. He then hired local operatives to organize patrols, ostensibly to keep such fraud at bay. To run the Newark operation, he hired Anthony Imperiale. </p>
<h2>Newark’s white vigilante</h2>
<p>Imperiale, in turn, hired off-duty police officers and employees of his private business, the Imperiale Security Police, to patrol voting sites in the city. </p>
<p>The gun-toting, barrel-chested former Marine had first adopted the security role during <a href="https://njmonthly.com/articles/historic-jersey/the-rebellion-in-newark/">Newark’s 1967 uprising</a> – five days of protests and a deadly occupation of the city by police and the National Guard following the police beating of a Black cab driver. During the uprising, Imperiale organized patrols of his predominantly white neighborhood to keep “<a href="https://nyti.ms/1Y8zykR">the riots</a>” out. </p>
<p>Soon, Imperiale became a hero of white backlash politics. His <a href="http://riseupnewark.com/Flyer-North-Ward-Citizens-Committee/">opposition to police reform</a> earned him widespread support from law enforcement. And his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/12/05/archives/kawaida-towers-confrontation-in-the-north-ward-of-newark.html">fight against Black housing development</a> in Newark’s North Ward delighted many of his neighbors. By the end of the 1970s, Hollywood was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1979/10/30/archives/notes-on-people-argentine-exile-fearing-reprisals-cancels.html">making a movie</a> based on his activities. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actress Frances Fisher arrives to speak at a downtown rally in Los Angeles, California on May 19, 2016, to bring attention to voter suppression.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/actress-frances-fisher-arrives-to-speak-beside-a-mural-of-news-photo/532747366?adppopup=true">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After serving as an independent in both houses of the state legislature, <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/14103/">Imperiale became a Republican in 1979</a>. Two years later, he campaigned with Kean. Once in office, the new governor named Imperiale director of a new one-man state Office of Community Safety – an appointment often interpreted as reward for Imperiale’s leadership of the ballot efforts in Newark, but stymied when <a href="https://nyti.ms/29KrnJG">Democrats refused to fund the position</a>.</p>
<h2>Outcome and legacy</h2>
<p>Despite Kean’s slim margin of victory, Democrats at the time were careful not to claim that Republican voter suppression efforts had decided the election. (In 2016, the former <a href="https://www.wnyc.org/story/armed-men-once-patrolled-polls-will-they-reappear-november/">Democratic candidate claimed they did indeed make the difference</a>.) </p>
<p>Rather, the state and national Democratic committees brought suit against the Republican National Committee to ensure it couldn’t again use such methods anywhere. For nearly 40 years – through <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/dnc.v.rnc/1987%20consent%20decree.pdf">amendments</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/us/politics/03voting.html">challenges</a> – the resulting consent decree <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-should-keep-the-black-vote-down-considerably">helped curtail</a> <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2008/9/18/lost_homes_lost_votes_are_republicans">voter suppression tactics</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Since the decree’s expiration in 2018, Republicans have ramped up their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/us/Voting-republicans-trump.html">recruitment of poll watchers</a> for the 2020 presidential election. Last November, Trump campaign lawyer Justin Clark – calling the decree’s absence “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am0egba-KNQ&feature=youtu.be&t=735">a huge, huge, huge, huge deal</a>” for the party – promised a larger, better-funded and “more aggressive” program of Election Day operations. </p>
<p>The Trump campaign is claiming, as Republicans did in 1981, that Democrats “<a href="https://youtu.be/-m5RE3gCwa8">will be up to their old dirty tricks</a>” and has vowed to “cover every polling place in the country” with workers to ensure an honest election and reelect the president.</p>
<p>This November, Republican tactics in 1981 are worth remembering. They demonstrate that the safeguarding of polling places from supposedly fraudulent voters and of public places from Black bodies share not only a logic. They also share a history.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/armed-poll-watchers-new-jerseys-cautionary-tale-ahead-of-the-2020-presidential-election-141328">article originally published</a> on August 10, 2020.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Krasovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2020 presidential election will be the first in nearly 40 years conducted without protections from a court order that forbid the GOP from using voter intimidation at the polls.Mark Krasovic, Associate Professor of History and American Studies, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1466692020-09-28T20:00:00Z2020-09-28T20:00:00ZNo mail-in votes, proof of citizenship: the long history of preventing minorities from voting in the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360221/original/file-20200928-16-1wtwehv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TANNEN MAURY/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“We really are the only advanced democracy on Earth that systematically and purposely makes it really hard for people to vote,” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/10/barack-obama-praises-australias-mandatory-voting-rules">President Barack Obama</a> lamented in 2016. He was alluding to obstacles that, in some states, intentionally suppress voting. </p>
<p>Voter suppression measures in the US are again in the spotlight. As some Americans <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000-americans-have-already-voted-compared-fewer-10000-this-point-2016-1534452">have already started voting</a> in this year’s presidential election, President Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/10-voter-fraud-lies-debunked">without evidence</a> raised the spectre of voter fraud, the central justification for voter suppression efforts in the modern age. </p>
<p>The forerunners of today’s sophisticated techniques for excluding minority voters have their roots in the post-Civil War 19th century. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360228/original/file-20200928-22-b55gke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tens of millions of Americans are expected to cast their ballot by mail this year, despite Trump’s attempts to discredit such voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CRISTOBAL HERRERA-ULASHKEVICH/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A white backlash in the post-Civil War south</h2>
<p>After the US Civil War (1861-1865), millions of freed slaves participated in civil and political life for the first time. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/54256/forever-free-by-eric-foner-illustrations-edited-and-with-commentary-by-joshua-brown/">They could vote, sit on juries, attend school and hold public office</a>.</p>
<p>With the withdrawal of northern troops from the south in 1877, this all changed. A <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/reconstruction-white-southern-responses-black-emancipation/">reassertion of white supremacy</a>, led by southern Democrats, aimed to strip African Americans of their right to vote. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-presidential-election-might-be-closer-than-the-polls-suggest-if-we-can-trust-them-this-time-141988">The US presidential election might be closer than the polls suggest (if we can trust them this time)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As historian <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/one-person-no-vote-9781635571387/">Carol Anderson</a> has documented, a dazzling array of methods were devised to stop African Americans from voting in these 11 states. </p>
<p>Many of these lasted until the 1960s. They included literacy tests, “<a href="http://www.umich.edu/%7Elawrace/disenfranchise1.htm?promocode=LIPP101AA?promocode">understanding clauses</a>” (voters had to prove their understanding of the US Constitution to a registrar) and the use of poll taxes (<a href="https://americanhistory.si.edu/democracy-exhibition/vote-voice/keeping-vote/state-rules-federal-rules/poll-taxes">essentially a voting fee</a>). These measures were backed by violence and intimidation.</p>
<p>All of this had the desired effect. For nearly a century after the Civil War, the vast majority of <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/white-rage-9781632864123/">African Americans were disenfranchised</a> across the south. On the eve of the second world war, only <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Fight-to-Vote/Michael-Waldman/9781501116490">3% of southern Blacks were registered to vote</a>.</p>
<p>The passage of the <a href="http://nvrmi.com/?page_id=41">1965 Voting Rights Act</a> ended this national outrage by banning voter suppression methods. It established, <a href="https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/lbjweshallovercome.htm">in the words of President Lyndon Johnson</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a uniform standard which cannot be used, however ingenious the effort, to flout our Constitution.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360254/original/file-20200928-24-18hmaud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A campaign to register African Americans to vote in the 1960s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kheel Center, Cornell University/Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A key provision in the act was “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act">preclearance</a>,” which required states with a history of discriminating against Black voters to seek federal approval to change voting rules and electoral boundaries. </p>
<p>The effects were immediate. That most basic of democratic rights, casting a vote, was extended to millions of African Americans across the south. Their levels of <a href="https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/right-vote-contested-history-democracy-united-states">registration soared</a>.</p>
<h2>How minority voters are suppressed today</h2>
<p>In 2013, however, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/us/supreme-court-ruling.html">invalidated this provision</a> in the Voting Rights Act, allowing those states to change their election laws without federal approval.</p>
<p>And voting rights for African Americans and other people of colour are again under attack, particularly in Republican-controlled states. </p>
<p>The new mechanisms of voter suppression display all of the ingenuity of their racist forebears, though expressed in race-neutral language that promises to safeguard against election fraud. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-cant-delay-the-election-but-he-can-try-to-delegitimise-it-143747">Trump can't delay the election, but he can try to delegitimise it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Onerous voter registration requirements are perhaps the biggest impediment to voting in many states. Government-issued photo IDs are now required in many states, which around <a href="https://www.aclu.org/other/oppose-voter-id-legislation-fact-sheet">11% of eligible voters do not have</a>. The numbers for African Americans and Latinos are much higher, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/Report_Challenge_of_Obtaining_Voter_ID.pdf">at 25% and 16%</a>, respectively. </p>
<p>The non-partisan <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/Report_Challenge_of_Obtaining_Voter_ID.pdf">Brennan Center for Social Justice</a> documents how difficult it is for voters without a driver’s licence to acquire an ID.</p>
<p>In the 10 most restrictive voter ID states, it estimates more than 10 million voters, or 17.5% of voting-age citizens, live more than 10 miles from the nearest state ID-issuing office. Most of these states have poor public transport infrastructure, creating a massive hurdle for many poor voters to get registered. </p>
<p>In Georgia, proof of citizenship is <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-must-ease-rule-for-voters-proving-citizenship-judge-says">required to vote</a>. To register, a voter must produce a birth certificate or passport, plus a social security number or a W-2 form (a tax document filed by employers). Again, many voters of colour and young Georgians cannot readily access these documents.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360256/original/file-20200928-24-fjqtvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A line to vote in Georgia earlier this year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Bazemore/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wisconsin <a href="https://apnews.com/article/dafac088c90242ef8b282fbebddf5b56">changed its law</a> to require voters to present a state-issued ID to vote, even if they are already registered. One study estimates <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/10/voter-suppression-wisconsin-election-2016/">some 200,000 more people</a> may have cast a ballot in the 2016 presidential election if the law had not been in place. Democratic contender Hillary Clinton <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2017/09/12/hillary-clinton-discusses-wisconsin-loss-herds-book-lands-wisconsin-filled-explanations-her-loss-her/657485001/">lost the state by less than 23,000 votes</a>.</p>
<p>Other states accept some forms of photo ID but not others. Texas <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-voter-suppression">accepts handgun licences</a>, for instance, but not university student IDs.</p>
<p>Nearly all states also disenfranchise convicted felons, preventing <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/issues/felony-disenfranchisement/">6.1 million people</a> from voting. One in 13 Black people of voting age have been disenfranchised under such laws, a rate more than four times greater than that of non-African Americans.</p>
<p>Another growing area of voter suppression involves purging voter rolls in ways that are systematically biased against minorities and young people. The Brennan Center found <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voter-purge-rates-remain-high-analysis-finds">17 million voters were purged</a> nationally from 2016–18, with higher rates in parts of the country that have a history of discrimination in voting.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1218328960200839170"}"></div></p>
<p>Then there is the matter of lack of polling booths. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/09/black-americans-have-wait-longer-vote-heres-how-fix-it/">A study of the 2016 election</a> found those in majority Black neighbourhoods were 74% more likely than those in white neighbourhoods to have to wait for more than 30 minutes to vote. </p>
<p>This is by design. Since the 2013 Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act, <a href="https://civilrights.org/democracy-diverted/">hundreds of polling locations have closed</a> across the south and elsewhere, many in states with a history of racial discrimination. </p>
<p>Now, the Trump campaign is waging <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/trump-campaign-asks-us-judge-kill-nevada-vote-72929328">another battle</a>: trying to block mail-in voting and other <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/trump-republican-party-lawsuits-mail-in-voting-covid">state laws and policies</a> designed to help voters cast ballots remotely during the pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360229/original/file-20200928-18-1arvl6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While Trump has attacked mail-in voting, his campaign has tried to convince his supporters the method of voting is valid and safe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Slocum/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Small victories show glimmers of hope</h2>
<p>A growing movement has begun to push back against voter suppression. Groups like <a href="https://blackvotersmatterfund.org/">Black Voters Matter</a> and <a href="https://votolatino.org/">Voto Latino</a> are organising tirelessly to circumvent tighter voting rules and other obstacles to get people to the polls. </p>
<p>They have had some success. In Republican-controlled Alabama, one of the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/can-doug-jones-get-enough-black-voters-to-win/547574/">hardest states</a> in the US for Black people to vote, an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/can-doug-jones-get-enough-black-voters-to-win/547574/">unexpectedly high Black turnout</a> in 2017 helped Democrat Doug Jones win a special election for the US Senate.</p>
<p>NBA star <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lebron-james-spearheads-group-to-protect-african-americans-voting-rights-and-fight-against-voter/">LeBron James</a> has also spearheaded a new organisation of Black athletes and artists called “<a href="https://www.morethanavote.org/">More Than a Vote</a>” aimed at combating racist voter suppression.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360262/original/file-20200928-18-g9de09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers wearing ‘vote’ warm-up shirts during the NBA playoffs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ERIK S. LESSER/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Such organisations reflect growing public opposition to voter suppression. Even in Florida, which has one of the harshest felon disenfranchisement regimes, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amendment-4-florida-felony-voting-rights-60-minutes-2020-09-27/">voters approved an amendment</a> to the state constitution to restore voting rights to 1.4 million convicted felons.</p>
<p>The Republican-led legislature <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/25/916626848/florida-republicans-take-aim-at-efforts-to-pay-felons-fines-so-they-can-vote">passed a new law presenting another hurdle</a> — felons had to pay off all their fines to vote — but last week, billionaire Michael Bloomberg <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916625348/bloomberg-adds-16-million-to-a-fund-that-helps-florida-felons-get-chance-to-vote">donated US$16 million</a> to a fund designed to help them do that.</p>
<p>Despite these glimmers of hope, there are still too many obstacles to voting that would not be tolerated in any other democratic country. If Trump is re-elected in six weeks, it could at least partially be due to the suppression of voters who overwhelmingly support his opponent.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-concerns-mount-over-integrity-of-us-elections-so-does-support-for-international-poll-monitors-144305">As concerns mount over integrity of US elections, so does support for international poll monitors</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lloyd Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Voting Rights Act was intended to prevent voter suppression in states with histories of discrimination. But states are finding other ways to make it difficult for people of colour to vote.Lloyd Cox, Lecturer, Department of Modern History, Politics and International Relations, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1443052020-09-08T12:32:13Z2020-09-08T12:32:13ZAs concerns mount over integrity of US elections, so does support for international poll monitors<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354391/original/file-20200824-16-1eyuclr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=84%2C56%2C4507%2C3225&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">International observers from Canada, India and Jamaica tour the Utah County election facilities on Nov. 6, 2018 in Provo, Utah.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/international-election-observers-from-canada-india-and-news-photo/1058239710?adppopup=true">George Frey/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the U.S. presidential election approaching, Americans face a daunting set of challenges as they prepare to vote. </p>
<p>Many voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html">fear the coronavirus</a> will force them to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/amp-stories/wisconsin-voters-primary-coronavirus/">risk their lives at the polls</a>. Yes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/search/result?sg=44b8fec6-545e-488d-bd08-fcd325a6025b&sp=1&sr=1&url=%2Fresearch-on-voting-by-mail-says-its-safe-from-fraud-and-disease-141847">voting by mail</a> <a href="https://berinsky.mit.edu/">represents a safe alternative</a>. But <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/13/donald-trump-usps-post-office-election-funding">President Donald Trump opposes additional funding</a> for the United States Postal Service, and the agency has warned 46 states that mail-in voters could be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states-delayed-mail-in-ballots/2020/08/14/64bf3c3c-dcc7-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html">disenfranchised by delayed mail-in ballots</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/17/us/study-says-2000-election-missed-millions-of-votes.html">Past presidential elections</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html">recent caucuses</a> provide even more cause for concern: Rickety voting systems risk changing election results.</p>
<p>When faced with potential problems at the polls, other countries invite international observers to help monitor elections. Just recently, <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/25/c_137922490.htm">Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/07/10/news/regional/trinidad/trinidad-pm-invites-international-observers-to-august-10-election/">Trinidad and Tobago</a> and <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/montenegro/457741">Montenegro</a> have welcomed observers. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.wku.edu/political-science/staff/timothy_rich">political science professor</a> who <a href="http://www.timothysrich.com/research">writes about electoral politics</a> and has observed elections in other countries, I’ve seen international observers promote faith and integrity in foreign elections. </p>
<p>Should an international organization monitor U.S. elections in November for fraud? The public seems to think so, even amid a pandemic.</p>
<h2>International observers in US elections</h2>
<p>Election observers typically monitor the entire election process – not just Election Day. They examine candidate registration, observe the opening of polling stations and help count ballots, for example. But they do not have the power to stop questionable activity, only to report it.</p>
<p>The U.S. often supports international election monitoring in other countries through the <a href="https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections">Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe</a> and the <a href="http://www.oas.org/en/topics/elections.asp">Organization of American States</a>. Election observers with these groups <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/25/belarus-protests-erupted-because-these-4-things/">ensure electoral integrity</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/world/americas/evo-morales-election.html">observe voting procedures for potential fraud</a>. </p>
<p>International observers are no strangers to U.S. elections – they have <a href="https://theconversation.com/international-election-observers-evaluating-us-midterm-elections-will-face-limitations-105631">monitored at least seven of them since 2002</a>.</p>
<p>While the Republican and Democratic parties <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/poll-watcher-qualifications.aspx">routinely recruit volunteers to monitor polls</a>, election experts say it’s crucial that nonpartisan observers are present to ensure that observation does not devolve into <a href="https://theconversation.com/armed-poll-watchers-new-jerseys-cautionary-tale-ahead-of-the-2020-presidential-election-141328">voter intimidation</a>. </p>
<p>Since U.S. elections are run by the states, states decide whether or not to permit international election observers. Several of them – California, Missouri, New Mexico and Washington, D.C. – have laws <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/1/1/456169_0.pdf">that allow for international observers</a>. Additionally, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota and Virginia have laws that allow election observers that could apply to international monitors. </p>
<p>But most other states do not welcome international observers. The practice is explicitly prohibited by statutes in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas. All other states have been silent about international observation missions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354393/original/file-20200824-18-1r2f7xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An international observer with Fair Elections International speaks to the media in Miami, Florida, on Nov. 2, 2004.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mathew-rosen-an-international-observer-with-global-exchange-news-photo/51647312?adppopup=true">Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>During the 2018 midterm elections, election officials in Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and West Virginia refused to meet with international observers before the elections, <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/US%20Midterm%202018%20LEOM_final%20report_13.02.2019_with%20MM.pdf">according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe</a>. That organization’s report said that Indiana officials, for example, informed its observation mission that observers “were not welcome in the state at all.”</p>
<h2>Strong public support</h2>
<p>Polls show that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/election-2020-voters-are-highly-engaged-but-nearly-half-expect-to-have-difficulties-voting/">Americans are highly engaged in the November election</a> – more so than in previous contests. But nearly half of them – Republicans and Democrats – expect to encounter problems at the polls. The coronavirus, malfunctioning voting machines and uncounted mail-in ballots represent just a few concerns.</p>
<p>While many states do not support election observers, evidence suggests the public largely does. With the <a href="http://www.timothysrich.com/ipol-research">International Public Opinion Lab</a> at Western Kentucky University, we conducted a web survey in July of 1,027 Americans across the country. We asked them if their state should allow an international, independent organization to observe the November elections to identify potential fraud.</p>
<p>Our survey found broad public support for international election observers. More than 70% agreed or strongly agreed to allow observers, with Democrats more supportive than Republicans – 77.2% and 65.3%, respectively. We found similarly high support between those preferring Joe Biden, 74.2%, and those preferring Donald Trump, 65.2%. </p>
<p>We also found that respondents concerned about contracting <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/covid-19">COVID-19</a> were more likely to support election observers, regardless of party affiliation. This is perhaps linked to concerns about their ballots being counted if voters cannot go to the polls on election day and instead vote by mail.</p>
<p><iframe id="3BtTc" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3BtTc/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>However, the COVID-19 pandemic throws a wrench in the typical electoral observation mission. How will observers monitor large-scale mail-in voting? Will they monitor early voting or just polling stations on Election Day? Will states require international election observers to arrive early and quarantine?</p>
<h2>Establishing credibility</h2>
<p>COVID-19-related obstacles to voting – <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/07/08/election-experts-warn-of-november-disaster">reduced number of polling stations</a> and trouble recruiting <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/31/coronavirus-election-worker-shortage-389831">polling station workers</a>, as well as concerns about health risks from voting in person – will likely decrease trust in the 2020 election and potentially affect the results, <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/1/1/456169_0.pdf">according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe</a>. That is why the group is calling for 500 international observers.</p>
<p>To encourage broad public confidence in the electoral process, state officials could invite international organizations to conduct observation missions, as many other countries do. This would help establish the credibility of election results and demonstrate a commitment to voter concerns.</p>
<p>In their invitation, state leaders could outline the safety measures they will take to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html">minimize COVID-19 risks for voters</a>, poll workers and election observers. They could also request clear guidance from international observers on how to <a href="https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/voting-by-mail-absentee-voting">monitor mail-in ballots and early voting</a>.</p>
<p>The pandemic will challenge international observation missions, but ensuring fair elections in an essential component of American democracy. And international monitors have shown they can provide an effective means to reduce public concerns about fraud and voter suppression.</p>
<p><em>Maggie Sullivan and Mallory Treece Wagner contributed to this report and the original survey questions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Rich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many US states forbid foreign observers to monitor their elections, but as the 2020 presidential election nears, a poll finds broad public support for international election observers.Timothy Rich, Associate Professor of Political Science, Western Kentucky UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1413282020-08-10T12:08:28Z2020-08-10T12:08:28ZArmed poll watchers: New Jersey’s cautionary tale ahead of the 2020 presidential election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348959/original/file-20200722-24-16c1dy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=181%2C150%2C6448%2C4094&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democrats filed suit against Republicans in 1981 for allegedly sending armed patrols to polling stations during the New Jersey gubernatorial race.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ballot-drop-off-sign-stands-outside-of-the-board-of-news-photo/1207464569?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the <a href="https://ugapress.org/book/9780820357744/voter-suppression-in-u-s-elections/">history of voter suppression</a> in the United States – including attempts to stop <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/republicans-voter-suppression.html">Black</a> and <a href="https://splinternews.com/the-forgotten-history-of-how-latinos-earned-the-right-t-1793862634">Latino people</a> from voting – Republican tactics in the 1981 New Jersey gubernatorial race are worth highlighting.</p>
<p>That November, voters in several cities saw posters at polling places printed in bright red letters. “WARNING,” they read. “This area is being patrolled by <a href="https://www.wnyc.org/story/armed-men-once-patrolled-polls-will-they-reappear-november/">the National Ballot Security Task Force</a>.” </p>
<p>And voters soon encountered the patrols themselves. About 200 were deployed statewide, many of them uniformed and carrying guns. </p>
<p>In Trenton, patrol members asked a Black voter for her registration card and turned her away when she didn’t produce it. Latino voters were similarly prevented from voting in Vineland, while in Newark some voters were physically chased from the polls by patrolmen, one of whom warned a poll worker not to stay at her post after dark. Similar scenes played out in at least two other cities, Camden and Atlantic City.</p>
<p>Weeks later, after a recount, Republican <a href="https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/the-governor-at-80/">Thomas Kean</a> won the election by fewer than 1,800 votes. </p>
<p>Democrats, however, soon won a significant victory. With local civil rights activists, they discovered that the “ballot security” operation was a joint project of the state and national Republican committees. They filed suit in December 1981, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/dnc.v.rnc/1981%20complaint.pdf">charging Republicans with “efforts to intimidate, threaten and coerce</a> duly qualified black and Hispanic voters.” </p>
<p>In November 1982, the case was settled when the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/court-cases/dnc-v-rnc-consent-decree">Republican committees signed a federal consent decree</a> – a court order applicable to activities anywhere in the U.S. – agreeing not to use race in selecting targets for ballot security activities and to refrain from deploying armed poll watchers.</p>
<p>The 2020 presidential election will be the first in nearly 40 years conducted without the protections afforded by that decree, which <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576858203/decades-old-consent-decree-lifted-against-rncs-ballot-security-measures">expired in 2018</a> after Democrats failed to convince a judge to renew it.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/mark-krasovic">a professor</a> who teaches and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/N/bo22961428.html">writes</a> about New Jersey history, I’m alarmed by the expiration because I know that Republicans in 1981 relied not only on armed poll watchers but also on a history of white vigilantism and intimidation in the Garden State. These issues <a href="https://theintercept.com/2020/06/19/militia-vigilantes-police-brutality-protests/">resonate</a> today in the midst of the Black Lives Matter movement and continued GOP attempts to <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/04/voter-purges-wisconsin-republican-election/">suppress the 2020 vote</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505273-red-states-moving-bills-to-curb-mail-in-voting-pandemic">in numerous states</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350004/original/file-20200728-21-2vn6od.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. Rep. John Lewis with House Democrats before passing the Voting Rights Advancement Act to eliminate potential state and local voter suppression laws, Dec. 29, 2019. The Senate has not taken up the bill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Voting-Rights/7544ee86afe644da81c12e4623974a4e/12/0">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</a></span>
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<h2>The Republican ‘ballot security’ plan</h2>
<p>Considered an early referendum on Ronald Reagan’s presidency, New Jersey’s 1981 gubernatorial race held special meaning for Republicans nationwide. Kean – with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/06/02/the-dirty-trickster">campaign manager Roger Stone</a> at the helm – promised corporate tax cuts and relied heavily on Reagan’s endorsement.</p>
<p>To secure victory, state and national Republican party officials devised a project they claimed would prevent Democratic cheating at the polls.</p>
<p>In the summer of 1981, the Republican National Committee sent an operative named John A. Kelly to New Jersey to run the ballot security effort. Kelly had first been hired by the Republican National Committee in 1980 to work in the Reagan campaign, and he served as one of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/13/nyregion/kelly-reported-on-reagan-s-appointees.html">RNC’s liaisons to the Reagan White House</a>. </p>
<p>Later, after he was revealed as the organizer of the National Ballot Security Task Force – and after The New York Times discovered that he had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/13/nyregion/kelly-reported-on-reagan-s-appointees.html">lied about graduating from Notre Dame and had been arrested for impersonating a police officer</a> – Republicans distanced themselves from him. </p>
<p>In August 1981, under the guise of the National Ballot Security Taskforce, Kelly sent about 200,000 letters marked “return to sender” to voters in heavily Black and Latino districts. Those whose letters were returned had their names added to a list of voters to be challenged at the polls on Election Day, a tactic known as <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-voter-caging">voter caging</a>. </p>
<p>In the Newark area, Kelly produced a list of 20,000 voters whom he deemed potentially fraudulent. He then hired local operatives to organize patrols, ostensibly to keep such fraud at bay. To run the Newark operation, he hired Anthony Imperiale. </p>
<h2>Newark’s white vigilante</h2>
<p>Imperiale, in turn, hired off-duty police officers and employees of his private business, the Imperiale Security Police, to patrol voting sites in the city. </p>
<p>The gun-toting, barrel-chested former Marine had first adopted the security role during <a href="https://njmonthly.com/articles/historic-jersey/the-rebellion-in-newark/">Newark’s 1967 uprising</a> – five days of protests and a deadly occupation of the city by police and the National Guard following the police beating of a Black cab driver. During the uprising, Imperiale organized patrols of his predominantly white neighborhood to keep “<a href="https://nyti.ms/1Y8zykR">the riots</a>” out. </p>
<p>Soon, Imperiale became a hero of white backlash politics. His <a href="http://riseupnewark.com/Flyer-North-Ward-Citizens-Committee/">opposition to police reform</a> earned him widespread support from law enforcement. And his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/12/05/archives/kawaida-towers-confrontation-in-the-north-ward-of-newark.html">fight against Black housing development</a> in Newark’s North Ward delighted many of his neighbors. By the end of the 1970s, Hollywood was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1979/10/30/archives/notes-on-people-argentine-exile-fearing-reprisals-cancels.html">making a movie</a> based on his activities. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350007/original/file-20200728-21-5a9m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actress Frances Fisher arrives to speak at a downtown rally in Los Angeles, California on May 19, 2016, to bring attention to voter suppression.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/actress-frances-fisher-arrives-to-speak-beside-a-mural-of-news-photo/532747366?adppopup=true">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After serving as an independent in both houses of the state legislature, <a href="https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/14103/">Imperiale became a Republican in 1979</a>. Two years later, he campaigned with Kean. Once in office, the new governor named Imperiale director of a new one-man state Office of Community Safety – an appointment often interpreted as reward for Imperiale’s leadership of the ballot efforts in Newark, but stymied when <a href="https://nyti.ms/29KrnJG">Democrats refused to fund the position</a>.</p>
<h2>Outcome and legacy</h2>
<p>Despite Kean’s slim margin of victory, Democrats at the time were careful not to claim that Republican voter suppression efforts had decided the election. (In 2016, the former <a href="https://www.wnyc.org/story/armed-men-once-patrolled-polls-will-they-reappear-november/">Democratic candidate claimed they did indeed make the difference</a>.) </p>
<p>Rather, the state and national Democratic committees brought suit against the Republican National Committee to ensure it couldn’t again use such methods anywhere. For nearly 40 years – through <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/dnc.v.rnc/1987%20consent%20decree.pdf">amendments</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/us/politics/03voting.html">challenges</a> – the resulting consent decree <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-should-keep-the-black-vote-down-considerably">helped curtail</a> <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2008/9/18/lost_homes_lost_votes_are_republicans">voter suppression tactics</a>. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Since the decree’s expiration in 2018, Republicans have ramped up their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/us/Voting-republicans-trump.html">recruitment of poll watchers</a> for the 2020 presidential election. Last November, Trump campaign lawyer Justin Clark – calling the decree’s absence “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am0egba-KNQ&feature=youtu.be&t=735">a huge, huge, huge, huge deal</a>” for the party – promised a larger, better funded and “more aggressive” program of Election Day operations. </p>
<p>The Trump campaign is claiming, as Republicans did in 1981, that Democrats “<a href="https://youtu.be/-m5RE3gCwa8">will be up to their old dirty tricks</a>” and has vowed to “cover every polling place in the country” with workers to ensure an honest election and reelect the president.</p>
<p>This November, Republican tactics in 1981 are worth remembering. They demonstrate that the safeguarding of polling places from supposedly fraudulent voters and of public places from Black bodies share not only a logic. They also share a history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Krasovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Republicans are free again to recruit poll watchers – four decades after ‘ballot security’ operations helped steer New Jersey’s 1981 gubernatorial race toward their candidate.Mark Krasovic, Associate Professor of History and American Studies, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1416782020-07-21T17:10:39Z2020-07-21T17:10:39ZGeorgia’s election disaster shows how bad voting in 2020 can be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348016/original/file-20200716-29-1ypm0f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Georgia voters brought folding chairs, books, laptop computers and plenty of patience to the polls on June.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wait-in-line-to-vote-in-georgias-primary-election-on-news-photo/1218845744">Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the nation mourns <a href="https://theconversation.com/john-lewis-and-c-t-vivian-belonged-to-a-long-tradition-of-religious-leaders-in-the-civil-rights-struggle-142967">civil rights icon John Lewis</a>, a congressman and lifelong advocate of voting rights, the mayhem in his home state’s most recent election serves as another egregious example of how a citizen’s most sacred act in a democracy – voting – was undermined and even denied after a federal law protecting voters’ rights was abandoned by a 2013 Supreme Court ruling.</p>
<p>Georgia’s presidential primary election on June 9 was a nightmare mix of inefficiency and discrimination that shows how difficult it is for many Americans – particularly Black Americans – to participate in their democracy. </p>
<p>Hundreds of voters, many in majority Black areas, waited <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/09/georgia-election-primary-long-lines-broken-voting-machines">four, five and even seven hours</a> to cast their ballots. Some even <a href="https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/police-were-called-on-predominantly-black-voters-waiting-to-cast-ballots-after-midnight-in-georgia/">faced down police</a> seeking to send them home without having voted.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://www.morehouse.edu/academics/polsci/ajonesbio/">scholar who studies voting rights and voter suppression</a>. When I spoke to longtime Georgia voters throughout the day, each one of them remarked that they “had never seen an election like this in the state of Georgia.” </p>
<p>The state’s primary was an example of what should not happen in a democratic country. It is an experience that has implications beyond Georgia, and that carries warnings for problems with the November presidential election and the legitimacy of the results.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1270730143884103681"}"></div></p>
<h2>Not enough places, ballots or help</h2>
<p>Georgia’s primary election was <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/09/2020-primary-georgia-voters-see-long-lines-machine-issues-amid-pandemic/5327909002/">postponed twice</a> from its original March 24 date, because of fears of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/politics/georgia-primary-virus-2020.html">spreading the coronavirus pandemic through in-person voting</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/what-if-i-never-got-my-absentee-ballot-in-georgia/85-b350bded-eeb3-4f1c-87b2-9ab3503364ba">A million and a half Georgians</a> applied to get absentee ballots that would have let them vote by mail. But an unknown number of them <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/absentee-ballot-requests-missing-fulton-ahead-georgia-primary/kkXUUbxL0wug5niqAvKTqM/">never received their ballots</a> and were forced to vote in person to ensure that their votes would be counted. Ultimately only <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/09/georgia-primary-election-voting-309066">943,000 ballots were cast by mail</a>.</p>
<p>Georgians didn’t always know where to go to vote: 10% of polling places – including 80 in the state’s most populous county alone – were closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The state-run website that let voters look up where they should vote was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/09/873054620/long-lines-voting-machine-issues-plague-georgia-primary">down for several hours in the morning</a> and worked only intermittently throughout the day. When the site was up and running, some voters still <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-georgia-analysis/georgias-election-mess-offers-a-stark-warning-for-november-idUSKBN23I0CF">could not find their correct polling locations</a> and visited precincts where poll workers told them they couldn’t vote.</p>
<p>Experienced poll workers were ill or feared getting sick, so the state had to recruit, train and dispatch new ones right before the election. Many poll workers were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/voting-debacle-in-georgia-came-after-months-of-warnings-went-unaddressed/2020/06/10/1ab97ade-ab27-11ea-94d2-d7bc43b26bf9_story.html">insufficiently trained and uninformed</a>, especially about when voters were entitled to absentee, emergency and provisional ballots.</p>
<p>There weren’t enough polling places, either. Several sites that normally serve 2,000 to 3,000 voters had to <a href="https://georgiarecorder.com/2020/06/09/long-lines-reported-across-metro-atlanta-as-voters-head-to-the-polls/">accommodate as many as 10,000</a> because of the consolidation. </p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Some polling places, especially in majority Black areas, had major delays because new voting machines weren’t working correctly. Many polling places across the state <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-georgia-analysis/georgias-election-mess-offers-a-stark-warning-for-november-idUSKBN23I0CF">opened two and three hours late</a>. The new systems, including printers, scanners and tablets, had trouble throughout the day, causing additional delays.</p>
<p>Precincts ran out of provisional ballots and envelopes and printer paper. County governments, the <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/local/lawsuit-filed-open-dozen-gwinnett-precincts-until/98XGG57SfT0BCmVvczI4pI/">NAACP and other civil-rights groups</a> appealed to county courts to get <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/voting-debacle-in-georgia-came-after-months-of-warnings-went-unaddressed/2020/06/10/1ab97ade-ab27-11ea-94d2-d7bc43b26bf9_story.html">orders extending polling hours</a> beyond the usual 7 p.m. to make up for the delays. One precinct <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/politics/georgia-primary-election-delays/index.html">didn’t close until 10:10 p.m.</a></p>
<p>As if that weren’t enough, it rained on voters in long lines with no shelter.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A gloved hand holding out a sticker reading 'I'm a Georgia voter.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348017/original/file-20200716-33-6ti6k2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For those who withstood the confusion, lines and delays, a badge of achievement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/polling-place-worker-holds-an-im-a-georgia-voter-sticker-to-news-photo/1218845897">Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A pattern of vote suppression</h2>
<p>Early in the day, Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, <a href="https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/secretary-states-office-blames-counties-poor-planning-poll-issues/PT2RPDXL5BAQTMNLCLLIR34VEE/">blamed the mayhem on the counties</a>, which administer the election, for not properly preparing for the state’s new electronic voting system. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/georgia-secretary-state-launches-investigation-after-unacceptable-voting-problems-n1228541">County officials responded</a> that the state was the problem.</p>
<p>The state’s Republican leadership <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/06/10/gop-vows-to-probe-georgia-election-catastrophe-in-minority-areas-dems-say-it-was-no-accident/">did nothing to prevent this democratic disaster from happening</a>, even though it had happened before, just two years ago.</p>
<p>In the 2018 election, Republican Brian Kemp, then Georgia’s secretary of state, was running for governor. As the state’s chief election officer, since 2017 he prepared for the election by using a variety of voter-suppression tactics that could influence the results. </p>
<p>In 2017 Kemp <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voter-purge-begs-question-what-the-matter-with-georgia/YAFvuk3Bu95kJIMaDiDFqJ/">purged more than half a million voters</a> from the rolls under the state’s rule that voters who have not voted in two or more previous elections could be required to re-register before voting again. And he applied another rule that disqualified voters whose names in election rolls <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2018/oct/19/georgias-exact-match-law-and-its-impact-voters-gov/">did not exactly match</a> their identification documents.</p>
<p>In addition, for the 2018 election, Georgia had <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voting-precincts-closed-across-georgia-since-election-oversight-lifted/bBkHxptlim0Gp9pKu7dfrN/">fewer polling places open</a> than usual, reduced the availability of early voting and <a href="https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/federal-judge-orders-georgia-to-allow-new-us-citizens-to-vote-clarify-process-at-polls/85-610750250">required proof of citizenship</a> before a person could register to vote.</p>
<p>Kemp’s efforts paid off. He won the election against Democrat Stacey Abrams by a nose in the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/16/668753230/democrat-stacey-abrams-ends-bid-for-georgia-governor-decrying-suppression">closest governor’s race since 1966</a>.</p>
<p>That narrow victory may have reinforced Georgia Republicans’ fear, shared by President Donald Trump, that if it’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/30/trump-voting-republicans/">easier for people to vote</a>, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/trump-slams-mail-in-voting-says-it-doesnt-work-out-well-for-republicans.html">GOP will lose more elections</a> nationwide.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man stands at the end of a line in a crowded room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348020/original/file-20200716-19-fzlk5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Polling places were crowded, many with people waiting on voting machines that malfunctioned or stopped working.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Georgia/1e6f58a6d4d54da586685f20c2b479a5/12/0">AP Photo/Ron Harris</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The end of federal supervision</h2>
<p>All these manipulations and changes are legal. That’s because in 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, removing the provision that protected people’s right to vote free from discrimination. </p>
<p>In their 5-4 <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">Shelby County v. Holder decision</a>, the justices removed the federal government’s power to evaluate, preapprove or block discriminatory voting laws in states like Georgia that have long histories of voter discrimination. That means there is no more federal oversight to ensure that qualified voters can gain access to the polls, and no recourse beyond state governments for voters who fear they have been unfairly denied their rights to vote.</p>
<p>In Georgia and other Republican-led states, officials have used the freedom provided by the Shelby decision to take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/13/voter-suppression-2020-democracy-america">official actions</a> that make it <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659784277/republican-voter-suppression-efforts-are-targeting-minorities-journalist-says">harder for Americans to vote</a>, and more likely that future elections will look like Georgia’s did on June 9.</p>
<p>Despite all those barriers, though, Democratic voters and Black Georgians <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-democrats-set-new-primary-turnout-record-outpacing-gop-voters/fotxE4Udba0e0q6QvDBZ8M/">turned out in record numbers</a> last month. Enough of them waited, and cast their ballots, to surpass the 1.06 million votes cast in the 2008 primary when Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton.</p>
<p>Whatever the reason for such large numbers overcoming such significant obstacles, it is thanks to the determination of countless individual voters – and not state or county election officials – that Georgians were able to vote in meaningful numbers.</p>
<p>With the Voting Rights Act gutted, other states may feel freer to suppress their citizens’ voting rights the way Georgia did. Voters across the nation may face similar circumstances in their communities – but there is still time for them to demand better from their officials.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrienne Jones has served as a volunteer for the Georgia Democratic Party.</span></em></p>Voters across the nation should prepare for similar circumstances in their communities – but there is still time for them to demand better from their officials.Adrienne Jones, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Morehouse CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1333012020-03-16T12:18:50Z2020-03-16T12:18:50ZClosing polling places is the 21st century’s version of a poll tax<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319986/original/file-20200311-116240-1slu37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=103%2C8%2C2892%2C2205&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Californians wait in line to vote on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/CA-Election-2020-California-Voting/37d4681bbfce4cac95f3d2e09edbe765/14/0">AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Delays and long lines at polling places during recent presidential primary elections – such as voters in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/long-voting-lines-in-texas-spotlight-concerns-about-access-to-the-polls/2020/03/04/e729486a-5e2e-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html">Texas</a> experienced – represent the latest version of decades-long policies that have sought to reduce the political power of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting">African Americans</a> in the U.S.</p>
<p>Following the Civil War and the extension of the vote to African Americans, state governments worked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-everyone-should-know-about-reconstruction-150-years-after-the-15th-amendments-ratification-122117">block</a> black people, as well as poor whites, from voting. One way they tried to accomplish this goal was through poll taxes – an amount of money each voter had to pay before being allowed to vote. </p>
<p>This practice was abolished by the passage of the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-xxiv">24th Amendment</a> in 1964. Further protections for nonwhite voters came with the Voting Rights Act, which closely followed the <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/selma-montgomery-march">Selma to Montgomery civil rights protest marches</a> 55 years ago, in March 1965.</p>
<p>But in recent years, new barriers have gone up that, we believe, constitute a new type of poll tax on working people and minority voters. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yi48Sl4AAAAJ">We</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xoubpW0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">are</a> scholars of the American civil rights movement, including the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1660274">Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee’s voting rights efforts</a>.</p>
<p>Unlike past poll taxes, the modern poll tax isn’t paid in money, but in time – how long it takes a person to get to a polling place, and, once there, how long it takes for them to actually cast their ballot.</p>
<h2>Securing the right to vote</h2>
<p>Almost immediately after the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxv">15th Amendment</a> gave African Americans the right to vote in 1870, state governments in the South passed a series of laws seeking to limit <a href="https://www.crf-usa.org/black-history-month/race-and-voting-in-the-segregated-south">freed blacks’ voting power</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, white supremacist organizations like the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/02/the-long-history-of-black-voter-suppression-in-american-politics/">Ku Klux Klan</a> used violence to intimidate African Americans from casting ballots.</p>
<p>This situation remained largely unchallenged for almost a century, until the 1960s, when the years of protest by the civil rights movement bore fruit in the abolition of poll taxes and federal protection of citizens’ voting rights.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319988/original/file-20200311-116291-175fbbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Lyndon Johnson signs the 24th Amendment, Feb. 4, 1964, abolishing poll taxes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Signing_of_the_Constitutional_Amendment_on_the_Poll_Tax.jpg">Cecil W. Stoughton/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Creating a new poll tax</h2>
<p>Since the 1960s, there have been efforts by state and local officials to limit these hard-won victories. </p>
<p>The most recent chapter in this battle is the 2013 Supreme Court decision in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">Shelby County v. Holder</a>, which lifted restrictions on states that have historically blocked African Americans from voting, so state governments no longer need to seek federal approval before taking actions that might disproportionately harm black citizens’ <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/how-shelby-county-broke-america/564707/">right to vote</a>. </p>
<p>Since the Shelby County decision, local election boards and state governments have closed over <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/09/report-more-than-1600-polling-places-have-closed-since-the-supreme-court-gutted-the-voting-rights-act/">1,600 polling places</a>. That is approximately 8% of total voting locations within jurisdictions affected by the Shelby decision. </p>
<p>The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, a bipartisan independent study group started in 1957, found that states claimed polling-place closures were intended to save money, centralize voting operations, and complying with Americans with Disabilities Act – but really the goal was <a href="https://www.usccr.gov/pubs/2018/Minority_Voting_Access_2018.pdf">reducing voter turnout</a>, particularly among minority voters who were historically disenfranchised. Using publicly available data, federal lawsuits brought against states and counties the report documents clear patterns of discrimination.</p>
<p>These closures, often done with little notice or public accountability, have occurred across communities of varying racial and <a href="https://civilrights.org/democracy-diverted/">demographic characteristics</a>. What unites these places are <a href="https://uknowledge.uky.edu/klj/vol104/iss4/5/">the costs they impose</a> on voting – from longer wait times to transportation obstacles – experienced disproportionately by voters of color, older voters, rural voters, voters with disabilities and poor working <a href="https://civilrights.org/democracy-diverted/">people in general</a>.</p>
<p>In the 2016 election, for instance, scholars at UCLA found that voters in black neighborhoods waited, on average, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.00024">29% longer to vote</a> than voters in predominantly white communities. The study found, “Even within the same county, voters in a hypothetical all-black precinct would wait 15 percent longer than voters in an all-white precinct.” </p>
<p>The study found voters in majority black precincts were far more likely to <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.00024">wait longer than half an hour</a> to cast a ballot than voters in majority white precincts. A study of the 2012 election found that the voters who waited in long lines paid, collectively, over <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/elj.2014.0292">half a billion dollars</a> in lost wages.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320259/original/file-20200312-111232-1h18azh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voters in Houston, Texas, wait in line to vote on Super Tuesday 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-line-up-at-a-polling-station-to-cast-their-ballots-news-photo/1204959570">Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Considering time</h2>
<p>We believe that polling place closures represent a modern-day version of the poll tax. </p>
<p>In our view, access to polling places is a key element of citizens’ <a href="https://www.casemine.com/judgement/us/5914b24dadd7b0493475f116">right to vote</a>. People need fair and equitable access to places to vote – and determining what that means should include time and travel costs imposed on voters. This would expand traditional understandings of access to polling places beyond narrow legal opinions and take into account the full range of racial and class barriers to being able to participate in U.S. democracy. </p>
<p>Everybody’s time is valuable. But wait times have different effects depending upon a person’s socioeconomic status. </p>
<p><a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/tndl85&div=7&g_sent=1&casa_token=b6sHA4AGfu8AAAAA:lRaEeXP_zforinl7vSd2bTvYfwkXqH_K479KZkRxBDv2h_RFdUaRleSa3PJ2K8C_dskseFpF7Q&collection=journals">Working people calculate daily</a> how much time, if any, they can afford to be away from their hourly wage job. Interminable waits at polling places may not fit in the schedule with a second or third job. Work supervisors may not excuse a late arrival or an absence. A working person may feel pressure to leave a polling place before casting a ballot, just to get to work on time and keep the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486932-sanders-calls-long-lines-at-michigan-polling-stations-an-outrage">money coming in</a>.</p>
<p>Importantly, the Supreme Court’s Shelby County ruling did not invalidate all of the Voting Rights Act. Rather, it threw out the method by which the federal government could determine <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/section-4-voting-rights-act">which areas of the country had policies</a> that resulted in widespread voter disenfranchisement. </p>
<p>Congress could enact new legislation detailing a new method of making that determination, which would then <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/2/14/17619202/voting-rights-fight-explained-key-sections-rights-act">restore federal oversight</a> to states that create barriers to voting. </p>
<p>However because of our federal system where states have direct oversight of elections many of these decisions ultimately take place at the local and state level. As a result, election officials need to work in transparent ways with diverse communities to ensure that changes to voting locations do not disproportionately limit minority access. In addition, states could also ensure equal access to voting by creating, or expanding, early voting periods, and making it possible <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/early-voting-in-state-elections.aspx">to vote by mail</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The modern poll tax isn’t paid in money, but in time – how long it takes a person to get to a polling place, and, once there, how long it takes for them to actually cast their ballot.Joshua F.J. Inwood, Associate Professor of Geography Senior Research Associate in the Rock Ethics Institute, Penn StateDerek H. Alderman, Professor of Geography, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.