tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/voters-18527/articlesVoters – The Conversation2024-03-11T12:24:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229672024-03-11T12:24:32Z2024-03-11T12:24:32ZAncient Rome successfully fought against voter intimidation − a political story told on a coin that resonates today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576049/original/file-20240215-17705-r7jti2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy was enshrined in Roman currency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This silver denarius, minted <a href="https://numismatics.org/crro/id/rrc-292.1">over 2,000 years ago</a>, is hardly the most attractive Roman coin. And yet, the coin is vital evidence for the early stages of a political struggle that culminated in Caesar’s assassination and the fall of the Roman Republic.</p>
<p>I first encountered this coin while <a href="https://history.iastate.edu/directory/david-hollander/">studying Roman history</a> in graduate school. Its unusual design gave me pause – this one depicted figures walking across a narrow bridge and dropping something into a box. I moved on after learning it depicted voting, reasoning that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah06338">Roman mint officials</a> occasionally made idiosyncratic choices.</p>
<p>But as voting access evolves in the U.S., the political importance of this centuries-old coin seems more compelling. It turns out that efforts to regulate voting access go way back.</p>
<h2>Roman voting</h2>
<p>Voting was a core feature of the Roman Republic and a <a href="https://archive.org/details/worldofcitizenin0000nico">regular activity for politically active citizens</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah18141">Men, and only men</a>, could vote in multiple elections and legislative assemblies each year. So why would P. Licinius Nerva, the official responsible for this coin, choose to depict such a banal activity? </p>
<p>The answer lies in voting procedures that sometimes heavily favored elites.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Panoramic view of ancient Roman columns and buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=218&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579986/original/file-20240305-18-i1uwnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Roman Forum was a common site of political activities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_romanum_6k_(5760x2097).jpg">BeBo86/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444338386.wbeah20037.pub2">comitia centuriata</a>, the assembly that elected Rome’s chief magistrates, each citizen was a member of a voting unit based on wealth. Unit members voted to decide which candidates they collectively supported, like U.S. presidential elections where it’s not the popular vote but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-electoral-college-exist-and-how-does-it-work-5-essential-reads-149502">number of Electoral College votes</a> that determines the winner. </p>
<p>The wealthiest Romans controlled more than half of the voting units in this assembly. The poorest citizens had just one voting unit; since they voted last, and only during uncertain outcomes, they might not vote at all. </p>
<p>Furthermore, citizens voted orally and openly. Elites could directly observe and potentially intimidate poorer voters.</p>
<h2>Regulating Roman electioneering</h2>
<p>That all began to change in 139 BCE when the Roman politician <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.35">Aulus Gabinius passed a law</a> mandating written ballots for elections. Two further laws, <a href="https://archive.org/details/romanvotingassem0000tayl">both passed in the 130s</a>, extended the use of written ballots to legislative voting and most trial juries.</p>
<p>These written ballots made it more difficult for elites to influence voting but not impossible. Each unit formed its own line leading to a bridge where voters received ballots to mark and <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/2027/heb01565.0001.001">place in a basket</a>. Elites could station themselves or their allies on the bridge to encourage people to vote the “right” way.</p>
<p>The reverse of Nerva’s coin depicts the reception and deposit of the ballot, the first and last moments of a voter’s time on the bridge. The absence of nonvoter figures on the coin, apart from a poll worker, is key to understanding its message.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bronzed silver coin with one figure receiving a ballot from another figure while another deposits a ballot in a box" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2018%2C1951&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576033/original/file-20240215-20-qncuxa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reverse of a Roman silver coin minted by P. Nerva, circa 113 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://numismatics.org/collection/1937.158.2?lang=en">American Numismatic Society</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 119 BCE, a young politician named Gaius Marius <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:greekLit:tlg0007.tlg031.perseus-eng1:4.2">passed a law</a> that <a href="https://www.loebclassics.com/view/marcus_tullius_cicero-de_legibus/1928/pb_LCL213.505.xml">narrowed voting bridge widths</a>, allowing voters to mark their ballots without elites looking over their shoulders. Nerva’s coin, minted six or seven years later, almost certainly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511584015">refers back to this law</a>. By showing only voters on the bridge, Nerva was celebrating an important voting rights victory and announcing his allegiance to Marius.</p>
<p>The aristocrats never managed to repeal the voting laws and were <a href="http://data.perseus.org/citations/urn:cts:latinLit:phi0474.phi044.perseus-lat1:3.33">still grumbling about them</a> even as the Republic collapsed.</p>
<p>The long Roman struggle over voting procedures provides a useful and perhaps even comforting reminder. <a href="https://tracker.votingrightslab.org/">Changing state voting laws</a> and <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/">election lawsuits</a> are nothing new. The fight over voter access to the ballot is an inevitable side effect of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David B. Hollander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fighting for voter access is an inevitable part of any democracy, from ancient Rome to the US today. Roman legislators were able to thwart elite political sway by introducing written ballots.David B. Hollander, Professor of History, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215732024-02-08T13:21:26Z2024-02-08T13:21:26ZAI could help cut voter fraud – but it’s far more likely to disenfranchise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570452/original/file-20240120-27-wwkoa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C44%2C5802%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Yeexin Richelle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the year is 2029. You have been living at the same address for a decade. The postman, who knows you well, smiles as he walks to your door and hands you a bunch of letters. As you sift through them, one card grabs your attention. It says: “Let us know if you are still here.” </p>
<p>It’s an election year and the card from the electoral office is asking you to confirm you are still a resident at the same address. It has a deadline, and you may be purged from the voter list if you don’t respond to it. </p>
<p>You had read about the government using AI to detect and eliminate electoral fraud through selective querying. Is it the AI pointing fingers at you? A quick check reveals your neighbours haven’t received any such cards. You feel singled out and insecure. Why have you been asked to prove that you live where you’ve lived for so long?</p>
<p>Let’s look under the hood. You received the card because election officials had deployed an AI system that can triangulate evidence to estimate why some voters should be contacted to check whether they are still a resident at their address. It profiles voters based on whether they display the behaviour of a “typical” resident. </p>
<p>In this case, you had taken early retirement and not filed tax returns in the past few years. And you had been on vacation during the previous election in 2024. These actions led the AI to conclude that you could be lingering in the electoral list illegitimately and triggered the system to contact you. </p>
<p>This fictional story is more plausible than you might think. In 2017 and 2018, more than 340,000 Wisconsin residents <a href="https://www.wicourts.gov/ca/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=255587">received</a> a letter asking them to confirm if they needed to remain on the voter list. This was at the behest of a US-wide organisation called <a href="https://ericstates.org/">Eric</a>, which had classified these voters as “movers” – those who may have ceased to be residents. Eric used data on voting history to identify movers – but also administrative data such as <a href="https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2023-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-4">driving licence and post office records</a>. </p>
<p>Eric may not have used any sophisticated AI, but the logic it employed is very much the kind of logic that an AI would be expected to apply, only at a much larger scale.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A roll of stickers reading 'I voted' next to a a picture US flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570453/original/file-20240120-25-ui4bsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If AI is left in charge of prompting voter registrations, fewer people might end up on the roll.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Barbara Kalbfleisch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The approach seemed highly effective. Only 2% of people responded, suggesting the vast majority of the people contacted were indeed movers. But <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abe4498">research</a> later showed systematic demographic patterns among Eric errors. The people erroneously identified as movers (and ended up showing up to vote) were far more likely to be from ethnic minorities.</p>
<h2>AI and ‘majoritarian gerrymandering’</h2>
<p>AI algorithms are used in a variety of real-world settings to make judgments on human users. Supermarkets routinely use algorithms to judge whether you are a beer person or a wine person to send you targeted offers. </p>
<p>Every online payment transaction is being assessed by an AI in real-time to decide whether it could be fraudulent. If you’ve ever tried to buy something and ended up triggering an additional security measure – be it a password prompt or request for authentication on a mobile app – your bank’s AI was judging your attempted transaction as abnormal or suspect.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">research</a> shows that abundant AI capacity is available to make judgments on whether people’s behaviour is deviant or abnormal. To return to our opening example, in a world where early retirement is not the norm, an early retiree has the scales tipped against them.</p>
<p>Such social sorting, carried out by AI-based judgments, could be interpreted as a latent or soft form of majoritarian gerrymandering. Traditional gerrymandering is the unethical practice of redrawing electoral district boundaries to skew electoral outcomes. AI-based social sorting could disenfranchise people for behaving in a way that deviates from the way the majority behaves. </p>
<p>The patterns in the Wisconsin case should have us concerned that voters from ethnic minorities were systematically being classified as deviating from cultural norms. </p>
<h2>Who gets a vote?</h2>
<p>In an ideal world, the electoral roll would include all eligible voters and exclude all ineligible voters. Clean voter lists are vital for democracy. </p>
<p>Having ineligible voters lurking on lists opens the possibility for spurious voting, skewing the result and damaging electoral integrity. On the other hand, leaving eligible voters off a list disenfranchises them and could result in election results that don’t reflect the true will of the people. </p>
<p>Ensuring access to the franchise to every eligible voter is therefore very important. To do a good job, efforts towards clean voter lists need to spread their focus <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1532673X20906472">reasonably between integrity and access</a>. </p>
<p>The question, therefore, becomes whether AI is capable of doing this. As it stands today, AI is fundamentally a data-driven technology – one that is adept at looking at existing data and identifying regularities or irregularities. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/aaai.12105">much better equipped</a> to spot issues with existing data than to identify instances of missing data. That means it is good at identifying people who may have moved from their registered address but not good at identifying new residents who have not registered to vote. </p>
<p>In a world of AI-driven electoral cleansing, you are much more likely to receive a “are you still here?” card than your new neighbour is likely to receive a “have you considered registering to vote?” card. </p>
<p>What this means for using AI to clean up voter lists is stark. It risks skewing the balance towards checking for integrity and away from enabling access. Integrity focused efforts in essence involve pointing fingers at people and putting the onus on them to confirm they are legitimate voters. Access focused efforts are like a welcoming pat on the back – an invitation to be part of the political process.</p>
<p>Even if widespread disenfranchisement doesn’t happen, states still risk undermining trust in elections by using AI on a larger scale. It could lead voters to feel electoral offices are obsessively oriented towards fault-finding and much less interested in democratic inclusion. And at a time when trust in elections is needed more than ever, that perception could be just as damaging as actually cutting people from electoral rolls.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanley Simoes receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 945231; and the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Padmanabhan and Muiris MacCarthaigh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI is likely to be used to help us run elections in the near future but there are risks as well as reward.Deepak Padmanabhan, Senior Lecturer in AI ethics, Queen's University BelfastMuiris MacCarthaigh, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, Queen's University BelfastStanley Simoes, Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher, School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187422023-12-01T16:10:14Z2023-12-01T16:10:14ZSantos, now booted from the House, got elected as a master of duplicity – here’s how it worked<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562816/original/file-20231130-15-kdugvt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C6508%2C4319&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. George Santos in the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 7, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-george-santos-r-n-y-leaves-a-meeting-of-the-house-news-photo/1769554374?adppopup=true">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. Rep. George Santos, a Republican from New York, was expelled on Dec. 1, 2023, from Congress for doing what most people think all <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-politicians-must-lie-from-time-to-time-so-why-is-there-so-much-outrage-about-george-santos-a-political-philosopher-explains-197877">politicians</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0261927X8800700204">do all the time</a>: lying.</p>
<p>Santos lied about his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/opinion/george-santos-jewish-heritage.html">religion</a>, <a href="https://www.advocate.com/politics/2022/12/22/george-santos-hid-marriage-woman-says-hell-explain-alleged-lies">marital status</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/politics/george-santos-admits-embellishing-resume/index.html">business background</a>, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/george-santos-facebook-comment-hitler-jews-black-people">grandparents</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/nyregion/george-santos-interview.html">college</a>, <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/guide-george-santos-lies.html#:%7E:text=He%20lied%20about%20where%20he%20went%20to%20high%20school%20%E2%80%A6&text=But%20a%20spokesperson%20for%20the,a%20high%2Dschool%20equivalency%20diploma.">high school</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/11/santos-lies-volleyball/#:%7E:text=George%20Santos%20lied%20about%20being,star%2C'%20county%20GOP%20chair%20says&text=George%20Santos%20allegedly%20told%20a,he%20claimed%20to%20have%20played.">sports-playing</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/congressman-george-santos-charged-fraud-money-laundering-theft-public-funds-and-false">income</a> and <a href="https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/documents/Committee%20Report_52.pdf">campaign donation expenditures</a>.</p>
<p>Santos’ fellow members of Congress – a professional class <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/evaluations-of-members-of-congress-and-the-biggest-problem-with-elected-officials-today">stereotypically</a> considered by the public to be littered with serial liars – apparently consider Santos peerless and are kicking him out of their midst <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/01/us/politics/santos-expulsion-vote.html">on a 311-114 vote, with two members voting present</a>. </p>
<p>How could a politician engage in such large-scale deception and get elected? What could stop it from happening again, as politicians seem to be growing more <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-long-running-no-apology-tour-hits-the-metoo-era/2019/04/04/caf47bdc-56e7-11e9-9136-f8e636f1f6df_story.html">unapologetically</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/psq.12809">deceptive</a> while evading voters’ scrutiny? </p>
<p>Santos’ success demonstrates a mastery of something more than just pathological lying. He managed to campaign in a district close to the media microscope of New York City, in one of the richest <a href="https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-3-ny">districts</a> in the state, and get elected and stay in office for a year, despite making a mockery of any <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/guide-george-santos-lies.html">semblance of honesty</a>. </p>
<p>I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en">a scholar of political deception</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751.2023.2244030">Experiments I conducted</a> have revealed how the trustworthiness of politicians is judged almost entirely from perceptions of their demeanor, not the words they utter.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t8zU8yX0TcA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians lie, as this compilation shows.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Misleading with a smile</h2>
<p>I have found that voters are drawn in by politicians’ demeanor cues, which are forms of body language and nonverbal communication that signal honesty or dishonesty and yet have no relationship to actual honesty. For example, looking nervous and fidgety or appearing confident and composed are demeanor cues, which give impressions of a politician’s sincerity and believability. Someone’s demeanor cues might signal that they are trustworthy when they’re actually lying, or could signal lying in someone who is actually telling the truth.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.2011.01407.x">most authoritative index</a> of demeanor cues that affect people’s perceptions of honesty and deception was developed <a href="https://www.uab.edu/cas/communication/people/faculty/timothy-r-levine">by Tim Levine</a>, a professor of communication at the University of Alabama, Birmingham. Demeanor cues that convey sincerity and honesty include appearing confident and composed; having a pleasant, friendly, engaged and involved interaction style; and giving plausible explanations.</p>
<p>The insincere/dishonest demeanor cues include avoiding eye contact, appearing hesitant and slow in providing answers, vocal uncertainty in tone of voice, excessive fidgeting with hands or foot movements, and appearing tense, nervous or anxious. </p>
<p>Empirical research has long revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2007.00362.x">voters are overwhelmingly influenced by politicians’ nonverbal communication</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.3.523">In one experiment</a>, participants were shown 10-second clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates. The participants were asked to predict who won the election. </p>
<p>Participants who saw muted 10-second clips – making their judgments solely on nonverbal cues – were able to predict which candidate would go on to win. But those who watched the video with the sound were no better at picking the winner than if they picked randomly without ever watching or listening to anything. Voters make their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1110589">judgments of a politician’s competence</a>, it turns out, based on a 1-second glance at the politician’s face. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-1750(86)90190-9">study</a> also found that politicians’ facial expressions have the power to move us, literally: People watching clips of Ronald Reagan looking friendly adjusted their facial muscles accordingly and mimicked his smile, and people watching clips of Reagan looking angry tended to furrow their brow, too.</p>
<h2>How Santos does it</h2>
<p>Santos <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYmCx2eaTRE">speaks with certitude</a>. He has a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/hcr/article/37/3/377/4107525">charming, friendly and interactive manner – all</a> sincere demeanor cues. He makes intense <a href="https://youtu.be/wYmCx2eaTRE?si=uKIPFcqkJcbWNtcy">eye contact</a> without fidgeting. He <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/style/george-santos-style.html">dresses well and is pleasant</a> looking. </p>
<p>He was able to make up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html">lies</a> out of whole cloth and have them believed – a feat rarely accomplished by liars. He exudes <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/george-santos-baby.html">confidence</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1712908983403462691"}"></div></p>
<p>Santos dresses with sartorial elegance. He wears chic <a href="https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2023-04-21-santos/4fbfc343e7ce7b04bd6d4d593ba08e0a5781cc29/_assets/stantos_desktop.jpg">eyeglasses</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gU8evnkPLcg">sunglasses</a>, accessorized with bright but not tacky jewelry. All this is complemented by one of his signature <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/12/15/multimedia/00ny-santos3-1-d66d/00ny-santos3-1-d66d-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp">fleeces</a> or <a href="https://apnews.com/c89bf18bcd7e4133ad2794bfe863460b">sweaters</a>, typically worn over a collared dress shirt and under a smart <a href="https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/03c/0df/28f256688a0f26500d713b0930eb4c6e52-GettyImages-1734001031.rhorizontal.w700.jpg">jacket</a>. Santos even bought his campaign staff Brooks Brothers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html">shirts</a> to wear. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03637751.2023.2244030">In my experiments</a>, which have shown that voters base their judgment of politicians’ trustworthiness almost entirely from perceptions of demeanor, I found that Republicans are especially susceptible to demeanor cues. Republican voters will disbelieve their own honest politician if they perceive that the politician’s demeanor is insincere. But they will believe their own politician if they perceive sincerity. </p>
<p>Santos’ believable demeanor follows in the lineage of other con artists who could deceive absurdly yet adroitly. Disgraced financier <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/jan/04/netflix-bernie-madoff-monster-of-wall-street">Bernie Madoff</a> dressed well, looked dignified, acted <a href="https://youtu.be/Or3xOfemMEE?si=yuA0YqLyuuJauP3A">friendly and cordial</a>, and his resting face was a smiling expression. The <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/81035279">Fyre Festival</a> fraudster Billy McFarland also had a resting face that was a smiling, aw-shucks <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/18/how-fyre-festivals-organizer-scammed-investors-out-of-26-million.html">expression</a>, and acted harmless and friendly.</p>
<p>And Elizabeth <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/business/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-interview.html">Holmes</a> of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/tech/theranos-rise-and-fall/index.html">Theranos</a> – who became the youngest female billionaire in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/news/collection/theranos-coverage-ea13b200">history</a> – faked a deep voice, walked upright with perfect posture, smiled and conveyed unrelenting confident poise, and maintained an unblinking gaze. All this enabled her to tell lies to some of the richest, most accomplished, intelligent titans of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-whistleblower-shook-the-companyand-his-family-1479335963">industry</a>. </p>
<p>Madoff, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/billy-mcfarland-organizer-of-disastrous-fyre-festival-pleads-guilty-to-misleading-investors.html">McFarland</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63685131">Holmes</a> could look people in the eye and steal their money – swindling largely through the same sorts of demeanor cues that Santos exhibits. </p>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/T1NkZ41zjUg?si=LDqLiJWSIN2lwqpS">McFarland</a>, <a href="https://youtu.be/rGfaJZAdfNE?si=DYur3J8AJtqwvXB5">Holmes</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/wYmCx2eaTRE?si=_Y9BJkfIsPfbAiqZ">Santos</a> have the ability to smile with their upper teeth showing while they are answering tough questions in interviews, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2111127">research shows</a> exudes trustworthiness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown haired man with glasses, wearing a white shirt and blue vest, fistbumps another man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562734/original/file-20231130-27-gptkfv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican candidate George Santos, left, fist-bumps campaign volunteer John Maccarone while campaigning on Nov. 5, 2022, in Glen Cove, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022NewYorkHouse/58045c130be64798a4eed98ed7a1e93c/photo?Query=George%20Santos%20campaigning&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=103&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fool me once …</h2>
<p>Just because someone speaks confidently, dresses well and acts friendly does not mean the person is honest. Pay attention to what people say – the content of their verbal messaging. </p>
<p>Don’t fall prey to <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/george-santos-snaps-at-oan-host-caitlin-sinclair/">body language or seemingly sincere behavioral impressions</a>, which actually have no correlation to actual truthfulness. As my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">research</a> has shown, the appearance of sincerity is misleading. It is a <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/1076-8971.13.1.1">myth</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0261927x14535916">that eye contact means someone is telling you the truth</a> and that a roving gaze or elevated blinking means they are lying. </p>
<p>Some people just <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0261927X14528804">look honest</a> but they are pulling the proverbial wool over your eyes. Some people <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0033-2909.134.4.477">look sketchy</a> and appear unbelievable, but what they say is truthful.</p>
<p>Santos’ disgrace is a teachable moment for citizens. As the proverb goes: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar of political deception says there is something especially deceitful about George Santos, and his success getting elected demonstrates mastery of something more than just pathological lying.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor, Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180952023-11-21T23:18:44Z2023-11-21T23:18:44ZWhy George Santos’ lies are even worse than the usual political lies – a moral philosopher explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560833/original/file-20231121-4482-abz219.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C15%2C5231%2C3347&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rep. George Santos on Capitol Hill in Washington on Oct. 24, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HouseSpeaker/89cab2060aad40ca9171f34e8e511ea4/photo?Query=george%20santos&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=262&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Nov. 16, 2023, the bipartisan House Committee on Ethics issued a scathing report on the behavior of Rep. George Santos, finding that Santos had engaged in “<a href="https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76">knowing and willful violations of the Ethics in Government Act</a>.” That committee’s Republican chair later introduced a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/17/politics/santos-expulsion-resolution-introduced/index.html">motion to expel</a> Santos from Congress. Regardless of the success or failure of that motion, which will be considered after Thanksgiving, Santos himself has announced he will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/nyregion/george-santos-ethics-committee.html">not seek reelection</a>. </p>
<p>These consequences are being brought to bear on Santos in large part because of what the report calls a “<a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24169355-report-on-ethics-george-santos">constant stream of lies</a> to his constituents, donors, and staff.” Santos appears to have deceived donors about what their money would be used for. Ostensible campaign donations were redirected for his private use, including <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/nyregion/santos-botox-ferragamo-expenses.html">purchases of Botox and subscriptions to OnlyFans</a>, an X-rated entertainment service. </p>
<p>What, though, makes Santos’ lies so unusual – and so damning? The idea that politicians are dishonest is, at this point, something of a cliché – although few have taken their dishonesty as far as Santos, who <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/the-everything-guide-to-george-santoss-lies.html">seems to have lied about</a> his education, work history, charitable activity, athletic prowess and even his place of residence. </p>
<p>Santos may be exceptional in how many lies he has told, but politicians seeking election have incentives to tell voters what they want to hear – and there is some empirical evidence that a willingness to lie may be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008144117">helpful in the process of getting elected</a>. Voters may not appreciate candidates who are unwilling or unable to mislead others from time to time.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://phil.washington.edu/people/michael-blake">political philosopher</a> whose work focuses on the moral foundations of democratic politics, I am interested in the moral reasons behind voters’ right to feel resentment when they discover that their elected representatives have lied to them. </p>
<p>Political philosophers offer four distinct responses to this question – although none of these responses suggests that all lies are necessarily morally wrong.</p>
<h2>1. Lying is manipulative</h2>
<p>The first reason to resent being lied to is that it is a form of disrespect. When you lie to me, you treat me as a thing to be manipulated and used for your purposes. In the terms used by philosopher Immanuel Kant, when you lie to me, you treat me as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9833.2010.01507.x">a means or a tool</a>, rather than a person with a moral status equal to your own. </p>
<p>Kant himself took this principle as a reason to condemn all lies, however useful – but other philosophers have thought that some lies were so important that they might be compatible with, or even express, respect for citizens. </p>
<p>Plato, notably, argues in “The Republic” that when the public good requires a leader to lie, the citizens should be <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0168%3Abook%3D3%3Apage%3D389">grateful for the deceptions of their leaders</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ias.edu/scholars/walzer">Michael Walzer</a>, a modern political philosopher, echoes this idea. Politics requires the building of coalitions and the making of deals – which, in a world full of moral compromise, may entail being deceptive about what one is planning and why. As Walzer puts it, no one succeeds in politics without <a href="http://fs2.american.edu/dfagel/www/Philosophers/Walzer/PoliticaAction_TheProblemofDirtyHabnds.pdf">being willing to dirty their hands</a> – and voters should prefer politicians to get their hands dirty if that is the cost of effective political agency. </p>
<h2>2. Abuse of trust</h2>
<p>A second reason to resent lies begins with the idea of predictability. If our candidates lie to us, we cannot know what they really plan to do – and, hence, cannot trust that we are voting for the candidate who will best represent our interests.</p>
<p>Modern political philosopher <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/beerbohm/home">Eric Beerbohm</a> argues that when politicians speak to us, they invite us to trust them – and a politician who lies to us <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/beerbohm/files/beerbohm_the_ethics_of_electioneering_jpp.pdf">abuses that trust</a> in a way that we may rightly resent. </p>
<p>These ideas are powerful, but they also seem to have some limits. Voters may not need to believe candidates’ words in order to understand their intentions and thereby come to accurate beliefs about what they plan to do. </p>
<p>To take one recent example: The majority of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, when he was trumpeting the idea of making Mexico pay for a border wall, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/14/even-trump-voters-think-mexico-paying-for-the-wall-is-kind-of-a-joke/">did not believe that it was actually possible</a> to build a wall that would be paid for by Mexico. They did not take Trump to be describing a literal truth, but expressing an untruth that was indicative of Trump’s overall attitude toward migration and toward Mexico – and voted for him on the basis of that attitude. </p>
<h2>3. Electoral mandate</h2>
<p>The third reason we might resent lies told on the campaign trail stems from the idea of an electoral mandate. Philosopher John Locke, whose writings influenced the Declaration of Independence, regarded political authority as stemming from the <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/7370/7370-h/7370-h.htm#CHAPTER_VII">consent of the governed</a>; this consent might be illegitimate were it to be obtained by means of deception.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white engraving of a man with shoulder-length hair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505396/original/file-20230119-17-r25b8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Philosopher John Locke championed the idea of the consent of the governed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/john-locke-english-philosopher-undated-engraving-news-photo/517391868?phrase=Philosopher%20John%20Locke&adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This idea, too, has power – but it also runs up against the sophistication of both modern elections and modern voters. After all, campaigns do not pretend to give a dispassionate description of political ideals. They are closer to rhetorical forms of combat and involve considerable amounts of <a href="https://www.washingtonian.com/2016/02/09/the-history-of-political-spin-in-washington-dc-and-why-its-not-so-bad-for-us-as-youd-think/">deliberate ambiguity, rhetorical presentation and self-interested spin</a>. </p>
<p>More to the point, though, voters understand this context and rarely regard any candidate’s presentation as stemming solely from a concern for the unalloyed truth.</p>
<h2>4. Unnecessary and disprovable</h2>
<p>Santos’ lies, however, do seem to have provoked something like <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/29/1146096826/rep-elect-george-santos-faces-growing-anger-from-new-york-voters">resentment and outrage</a>, which suggests that they are somehow unlike the usual forms of deceptive practice undertaken during political campaigns. </p>
<p>Certainly the congressional response to these lies is extraordinary. If Santos is expelled from Congress, he would be only the third member of that body to have been expelled <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/01/house-could-expel-george-santos-today-here-are-the-other-lawmakers-who-have-been-kicked-out-of-congress/?sh=386ba482c988">since the Civil War</a>. </p>
<p>The rarity of this sanction may reflect a final reason to resent deception, which is that voters especially dislike being lied to unnecessarily – nor about matters subject to easy empirical proof or disproof. It seems clear that voters may sometimes be willing to accept deceptive and dissembling political candidates, given the fact that effective statecraft may involve the use of deceptive means. Santos, however, lied about matters as tangential to politics as his nonexistent history as a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/11/santos-lies-volleyball/">star player for Baruch College’s volleyball team</a>. </p>
<p>This lie was unnecessary, given its tenuous relationship to his candidacy for the House of Representatives, and easily disproved, given the fact that he did not actually attend Baruch. Similarly, the ethics report on Santos emphasized the fact that his expenditures often involved purchases for which there was no plausible relationship to a campaign, including US$6,000 at <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/george-santos-campaign-funds-how-spent-what-to-know-rcna125531">luxury goods store Ferragamo</a>. The proposition that such a purchase was useful for his election campaign is difficult to defend – or to believe. </p>
<p>I believe voters may have made their peace with some deceptive campaign practices. If Walzer is right, they should expect that an effective candidate will be imperfectly honest, at best. But candidates who are both liars and bad at lying can find no such justification, since they are unlikely to be believed and thus incapable of achieving those goods that justify their deception. </p>
<p>If voters have made their peace with some degree of lying, in short, they are nonetheless still capable of resenting candidates who are unskilled at the craft of political deception.</p>
<p><em>This is an <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-politicians-must-lie-from-time-to-time-so-why-is-there-so-much-outrage-about-george-santos-a-political-philosopher-explains-197877">updated version of an article</a> originally published on Jan. 20, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Blake receives funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities.</span></em></p>A political philosopher writes that voters may put up with some degree of deception from politicians, but they may not accept being lied to unnecessarily.Michael Blake, Professor of Philosophy, Public Policy and Governance, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2075842023-09-06T12:25:58Z2023-09-06T12:25:58ZNot religious, not voting? The ‘nones’ are a powerful force in politics – but not yet a coalition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535164/original/file-20230702-192977-l8drvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2117%2C1409&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians all over the spectrum have long tried to appeal to religious voters. What about atheists, agnostics and nothing-in-particulars?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/atheist-checkbox-on-white-paper-with-metal-pen-royalty-free-image/1137047566?phrase=atheist+voter&adppopup=true">Y.Gurevich/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nearly 30% of Americans say they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">have no religious affiliation</a>. Today the so-called “nones” represent <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/prri-2022-american-values-atlas-religious-affiliation-updates-and-trends/">about 30% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans</a> – and they are making their voices heard. <a href="https://secular.org/">Organizations lobby</a> on behalf of <a href="https://www.atheists.org/">atheists</a>, agnostics, <a href="https://americanhumanist.org/">secular humanists</a> and other nonreligious people. </p>
<p>As more people leave religious institutions, or never join them in the first place, it’s easy to assume this demographic will command more influence. But as a sociologist <a href="https://www.umb.edu/directory/evanstewart/">who studies politics and religion</a>, I wanted to know whether there was evidence that this religious change could actually make a strong political impact.</p>
<p>There are reasons to be skeptical of unaffiliated Americans’ power at the ballot box. Religious institutions have long been key for mobilizing voters, both <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/black-church-has-been-getting-souls-polls-more-60-years">on the left</a> and <a href="https://www.oah.org/tah/issues/2018/november/evangelicalism-and-politics/">the right</a>. Religiously unaffiliated people <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/#:%7E:text=While%20more%20than%20one%2Dthird,those%20ages%2065%20and%20older.">tend to be younger</a>, and younger people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006">tend to vote less often</a>. What’s more, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/">exit polls</a> from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">recent elections</a> show the religiously unaffiliated may be a smaller percentage of voters than of the general population. </p>
<p>Most importantly, it’s hard to put the “unaffiliated” in a box. Only a third of them <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">identify as atheists or agnostics</a>. While there is a smaller core of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108923347">secular activists</a>, they tend to hold different views from <a href="http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/books/b9789004319301s009">the larger group</a> of people who are religiously unaffiliated, such as being more concerned about the separation of church and state. </p>
<p>By combining all unaffiliated people as “the nones,” researchers and political analysts risk missing key details about this large and diverse constituency.</p>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>In order to learn more about which parts of religious unaffiliated populations turn out to vote, I used data from the <a href="https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/">Cooperative Election Study</a>, or CES, for presidential elections in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020. The CES collects large surveys and then matches individual respondents in those surveys to validated voter turnout records.</p>
<p>These surveys were different from exit polls in some key ways. For example, according to these survey samples, overall validated voter turnout looked higher in many groups, not just the unaffiliated, than exit polls suggested. But because each survey sample had over 100,000 respondents and detailed questions about religious affiliation, they allowed me to find some important differences between smaller groups within the unaffiliated.</p>
<p><iframe id="oK8sa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oK8sa/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>My findings, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">published in June 2023 in the journal Sociology of Religion</a>, were that the unaffiliated are divided in their voter turnout: Some unaffiliated groups are more likely to vote than religiously affiliated respondents, and some are less likely.</p>
<p>People who identified as atheists and agnostics were more likely to vote than religiously affiliated respondents, especially in more recent elections. For example, after controlling for key demographic predictors of voting – like age, education and income – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">I found</a> that atheists and agnostics were each about 30% more likely to have a validated record of voting in the 2020 election than religiously affiliated respondents. </p>
<p>With those same controls, people who identified their religion as simply “nothing in particular,” <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/">who are about two-thirds of the unaffiliated</a>, were actually less likely to turn out in all four elections. In the 2020 election sample, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">I found</a> that around 7 in 10 agnostics and atheists had a validated voter turnout record, versus only about half of the “nothing in particulars.”</p>
<p>Together, these groups’ voting behaviors tend to cancel each other out. Once I controlled for other predictors of voting like age and education, “the nones” as a whole were equally likely to have a turnout record as religiously affiliated respondents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five people with their backs to the camera vote at small booths in a room with bunting in the colors of the American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535350/original/file-20230703-252214-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Religious and nonreligious voting patterns may not be so different after all.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/voters-voting-in-polling-place-royalty-free-image/138711450?phrase=young+voters&adppopup=true">Hill Street Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>2024 and beyond</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/after-trump-christian-nationalist-ideas-are-going-mainstream-despite-a-history-of-violence-188055">Concern about growing Christian nationalism</a>, which advocates for fusing national identity and political power with Christian beliefs, has put a spotlight on religion’s role in <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-god-strategy-9780195326413?cc=us&lang=en&">right-wing advocacy</a>. </p>
<p>Yet religion does not line up neatly with one party. The <a href="https://religionnews.com/2023/04/21/christian-nationalists-have-provoked-a-pluralist-resistance/">political left also boasts a diverse coalition of religious groups</a>, and there are many Republican voters for whom religion is not important. </p>
<p>If the percentage of people without a religious affiliation continues to rise, both Republicans and Democrats will have to think more creatively and intentionally about how to appeal to these voters. My research shows that neither party can take the unaffiliated for granted nor treat them as a single, unified group. Instead, politicians and analysts will need to think more specifically about what motivates people to vote, and particularly what policies encourage voting among young adults.</p>
<p>For example, some activist groups talk about “<a href="https://secular.org/grassroots/valuesvoter/#:%7E:text=Secular%20Values%20Voter%20is%20a,values%20for%20which%20they%20stand.">the secular values voter</a>:” someone who is increasingly motivated to vote by concern about separation of church and state. I did find evidence that the average atheist or agnostic is about 30% more likely to turn out than the average religiously affiliated voter, lending some support to the secular values voter story. At the same time, that description does not fit <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108923347">all the “nones</a>.”</p>
<p>Instead of focusing on America’s declining religious affiliation, it may be more helpful to focus on the country’s <a href="https://www.interfaithamerica.org/">increasing religious diversity</a>, especially because many unaffiliated people still report having religious and spiritual beliefs and practices. Faith communities have historically been important sites for political organizing. Today, though, motivating and empowering voters might mean looking across a broader set of community institutions to find them.</p>
<h2>Rethinking assumptions</h2>
<p>There is good news in these findings for everyone, regardless of their political leanings. <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bowling-Alone-Revised-and-Updated/Robert-D-Putnam/9780743219037">Social science theories from the 1990s and 2000s argued</a> that leaving religion was part of a larger trend in declining civic engagement, like voting and volunteering, but that may not be the case. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/srad018">According to my research</a>, it was actually unaffiliated respondents who reported still attending religious services who were least likely to vote. Their turnout rates were lower than both frequently attending religious affiliates and unaffiliated people who never attended.</p>
<p>This finding matches up with previous research on religion, spirituality and other kinds of civic engagement. Sociologists <a href="https://www.cla.purdue.edu/directory/profiles/jacqui-frost.html">Jacqui Frost</a> and <a href="https://cla.umn.edu/about/directory/profile/edgell">Penny Edgell</a>, for example, found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764017746251">a similar pattern in volunteering</a> among religiously unaffiliated respondents. In a previous study, sociologist <a href="https://www.hamilton.edu/academics/our-faculty/directory/faculty-detail/jaime-lee-kucinskas">Jaime Kucinskas</a> and I found that spiritual practices like meditation and yoga were <a href="https://theconversation.com/yoga-versus-democracy-what-survey-data-says-about-spiritual-americans-political-behavior-187960">just as strongly associated with political behavior</a> as religious practices like church attendance. Across these studies, it looks like disengagement from formal religion is not necessarily linked to political disengagement.</p>
<p>As the religious landscape changes, new potential voters may be ready to engage – if political leadership can enact policies that help them turn out, and inspire them to turn out, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Stewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nonreligious voters are poised to make an impact, but sweeping statements about the ‘nones’ don’t tell the full story.Evan Stewart, Assistant Professor of Sociology, UMass BostonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080532023-06-28T16:56:12Z2023-06-28T16:56:12ZPoliticians believe voters to be more conservative than they really are<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534112/original/file-20230626-19-k2azps.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7360%2C4891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could this be what politicians have in mind when they invoke the "hardworking family"? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/fr/image-photo/happy-parents-sitting-on-sofa-looking-1056238637">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/far-right-afd-wins-local-election-watershed-moment-german-politics">district council election for the first time</a> on Monday. Robert Sesselmann’s victory as district administrator – the equivalent of a mayor – in the Eastern town of Sonneberg comes only a day after Greece’s conservatives clinched an outright majority in the country’s parliamentary polls, topping left-wing parties Syriza and Pasok. Meanwhile, the Spanish left is also bracing for an early general election on 23 July, after losing to the Spanish conservative Partido Popular (PP) and far-right Vox parties in May.</p>
<p>Such developments might send a signal to European politicians to lean further to the right in a scramble to save votes. Yet our latest research, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/do-politicians-outside-the-united-states-also-think-voters-are-more-conservative-than-they-really-are/D21A9077EE2435F2B910394378E96450">published this month</a>, shows that politicians’ perceptions may not actually reflect voters’ true interests and opinions. Worse still: it appears to be an error that many other politicians have already made.</p>
<h2>866 officials surveyed</h2>
<p>In an influential 2018 study, David Broockman and Christopher Skovron <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/bias-in-perceptions-of-public-opinion-among-political-elites/2EF080E04D3AAE6AC1C894F52642E706">showed</a> that US politicians overestimated the share of citizens who held conservative views. On questions related to state intervention in the economy, gun control, immigration, or abortion, the majority of both Republicans and Democratic representatives surveyed believed that a greater share of citizens supported right-wing policies than what public-opinion data revealed.</p>
<p>We were curious whether conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion was limited to American politics or was a broader phenomenon. To explore this, we interviewed 866 politicians in four democracies that whose political systems differ from each other and from that of the United States: Belgium, Canada, Germany and Switzerland. The politicians interviewed spanned the full political spectrum, including politicians from the radical right (Vlaams Belang, SVP/UDC), moderate centre-right (CDU/CSU, Conservative Party of Canada), centre-left parties (SPD, PS, SP.a-Vooruit) and radical left (PTB, Die Linke).</p>
<p>Participating officials, who included members of national and subnational (provinces, cantons, regions, Länders) legislative bodies, were asked to evaluate where general public opinion (but also that of their party voters) stood on a range of issues: pension age, redistribution, workers’ rights, euthanasia, child adoption by same-sex couples and immigration. We then compared their answers with public opinion data that we evaluated using large-scale representative surveys that we fielded in the four countries at the same time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534064/original/file-20230626-23-k4jhtz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Our findings are clear and straightforward. In all four countries, and on a majority of issues, politicians consistently overestimate the share of citizens who hold right-wing views. Figure 1 reports the average gap between politicians’ perceptions of general public opinion and citizens’ actual opinions (circles), and the gap between their estimation of their party’s electorate opinion and the observed opinion within that electorate (triangles). These estimates are reported for each issue domain and each country we studied. Both measures reveal a substantial and largely consistent conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions – both for the overall public and party electorates. Importantly, politicians’ overestimation of how many citizens hold right-wing views is consistent across the ideological spectrum. Politicians hold a conservative bias regardless of whether they represent left- or right-wing parties.</p>
<p>While the overall pattern is remarkably stable, we also uncovered important variation across issue domains. For example, citizens are much less in favour of raising the pension age than politicians think. There were also differences between countries, such as a smaller conservative bias in Wallonia (Belgium). But the global picture is clear: the overwhelming majority of politicians we studied (81%) believe that the public holds more conservative views than is the case. </p>
<p>The only exception appears to be when politicians estimate public opinion on immigration-related policies. When asked about issues such as family reunion, asylum or border control, there is also a misperception of public opinion among politicians but not always in the conservative direction. Politicians in Belgium (both Flanders and Wallonia) and in Switzerland have a conservative bias on such issues, but in Canada and Germany, there is a large <em>liberal</em> bias in politicians’ perception of public opinion regarding immigration.</p>
<h2>The result of lobbying?</h2>
<p>The big question is <em>why</em> politicians perceive public opinion to be more right-wing than it truly is. One explanation provided by Broockman and Skovron for the United States was that right-wing activists are more visible and tend to contact their politicians more often, skewing representatives’ information environment to the right. We tested this explanation in our studied countries, but could not find evidence to support it. The right-wing citizens in our sample are not more politically active, and therefore visible, than their left-wing counterparts. Yet the idea that politicians’ information environment might be skewed to the right can find support in other work.</p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/spsr.12224">Earlier research</a> has shown that politicians tend to receive disproportionally right-skewed information from business interest groups. Social media, which politicians use more and more, also tends to be dominated <a href="https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/148014700/review_Schradie.pdf">by conservative views</a>, and as politicians spend more time online, and their news media diet is growingly filtered through social media feeds that create interactions and feedback skewed to the right, their views may be accordingly distorted. It has also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305542100037X">been shown</a> that politicians tend to pay more attention to the policy preferences of more affluent and educated citizens, and those citizens vote more often and hold more often right-wing views, at least on economic issues.</p>
<p>The observed conservative bias might also be associated with what social psychologist call “pluralistic ignorance” (i.e., misperceptions of others’ opinions). When it comes to liberals, for example, social psychologists have shown that they tend to exaggerate the uniqueness of their own opinion (<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24247730/">“false uniqueness”</a>. Conservatives, by contrast, perceive their opinions as more common than they are (<a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0146167214537834">“false consensus”</a>). These processes could explain why we find a conservative bias found among both liberal and conservative politicians. Finally, recent election results such the Presidential elections in France, or the recent parliamentary elections in Greece and Finland, with the growth of the radical right and the victories of right-wing conservative parties, might also have sent a signal to politicians about the conservativeness of citizens that is not necessarily in step with their actual opinions.</p>
<h2>A threat to representative democracy</h2>
<p>Irrespective of the sources of the conservative bias, the fact that it is persistently present in a variety of different democratic systems has major implications for the well-functioning of representative democracy. Representative democracy builds upon the idea that elected politicians are responsive to citizens, meaning that they by and large attempt to promote policy initiatives that are in line with people’s preferences. If politicians’ ideas of what the public thinks – let alone their own party’s voters – are systematically biased toward one ideological side, then the political representation chain is weakened. Politicians may erroneously pursue right-wing policies that do not in fact have the popular support, and may refrain from working to advance (incorrectly perceived) progressive goals. But if citizens are less conservative than what politicians perceive them to be, the supply side of policy is at risk of being consistently suboptimal and may have broader, system-wide implications such as growing disaffection with democracy and democratic institutions.The recent social unrest in France regarding raising legal pension age might be an example of a policy debate in which governments perceive public opinion leaning more to the right than it actually is.</p>
<p>The situation is not without hope, however, and access to accurate information seems to play an important role. A <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/spsr.12495">2020 study</a> in Switzerland has shown that a sustained use of direct democracy might help politicians better understand public opinion. In the same logic, a recent study of US elected officials show that they tend to misperceive support for politically motivated violence among their supporters. But when exposed to reliable and accurate information, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116851119">they update and correct their (mis) perceptions</a>. Building on such studies, we believe that more work needs to be done both to understand the sources and prevalence of conservative bias, and to identify additional ways of offsetting it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean-Benoit Pilet has received research grants from the European Research Council (ERC) and the Belgian National Fondation for Scientific Research (FNRS) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lior Sheffer has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).</span></em></p>A survey of nearly 900 politicians in Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Canada reveals that they systematically overestimate their electorate’s conservatism on a range of issues.Jean-Benoit Pilet, Professeur de Science Politique, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)Lior Sheffer, Assistant professor in political science, Tel Aviv UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064732023-05-26T16:55:19Z2023-05-26T16:55:19ZTurkey’s presidential runoff: 4 essential reads on what’s at stake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528620/original/file-20230526-23155-b6trtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C53%2C5858%2C3870&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu -- which one will be flying high after the runoff? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flags-fly-over-taksim-square-showing-turkeys-president-news-photo/1489812545?adppopup=true">Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Turkish voters will <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-election-2023-whats-stake-runoff-2023-05-26/">head to the polls on May 28, 2023</a>, for the second time in the month – this time facing a choice between a winnowed field of two candidates, each of whom is vowing to take the country in a very different direction.</p>
<p>The fact that the presidential vote has gone to a runoff is no great surprise – polls <a href="https://globeelectionshistorysociety.wordpress.com/2023/05/15/tr-pe2023-final-projection-r1/">had predicted</a> that none of the initial candidates would get above the 50% mark needed to be declared the outright winner. Nor is the binary choice in front of voters a shock. Turkish people have long known that the likely option would be between sticking with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogans-milestones-before-turkeys-election-2023-05-07/">incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, who has ruled the country for two decades, or throw their lot in with main <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1172704065/turkey-election-candidate-kemal-kilicsdaroglu-erdogan-challenger">opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu</a>.</p>
<p>But the fact that Erdoğan enters the runoff as the favorite, having secured more votes in the first round, is something that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-lags-election-rival-closely-watched-poll-2023-05-11/">earlier polls had not predicted</a>.</p>
<p>Here are four stories from The Conversation’s Turkish election coverage that help contextualize the choice in front of voters, and how it could impact the future direction of the nation.</p>
<h2>1. Erdoğan defies the polls</h2>
<p>How did Erdoğan enter the runoff weekend in such a strong position? </p>
<p>The assumption was that he might have sunk under the combined weight of a faltering economy, concerns about his authoritarian style and a widely held perception that he mishandled a devastating earthquake just months before the vote.</p>
<p>But as <a href="https://polisci.indiana.edu/about/graduate-students/yasun-salih.html">Salih Yasun</a>, an expert on Turkish politics at Indiana University, noted, Erdoğan <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-presidential-election-how-erdogan-defied-the-polls-to-head-into-runoff-as-favorite-205719">had some things going for him</a> as the campaign took shape. First off, he was able to use state resources, and utilized control over a large section of the media to bolster his bid for reelection.</p>
<p>He has also mitigated falling support for his AKP party by adding smaller Islamist and nationalist parties to his coalition. </p>
<p>“By doing that, he has allowed his base to vote for coalition parties other than the AKP while maintaining their support for his own candidacy within the presidential race,” wrote Yasun. </p>
<p>Meanwhile his main opponent made several missteps, such as not agreeing to public debates and bypassing primary elections to secure his candidacy as opposition leader. In addition, under Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition party has become more of a catchall organization at the cost of presenting a clear social democratic message, Yasun argued.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-presidential-election-how-erdogan-defied-the-polls-to-head-into-runoff-as-favorite-205719">Turkey's presidential election – how Erdoğan defied the polls to head into runoff as favorite</a>
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<h2>2. Claiming counterterrorism success</h2>
<p>There is another potential factor in Erdoğan’s outperforming of the polls in the first round: his political use of counterterrorism.</p>
<p>Just as it looked like the long-standing Turkish leader was struggling to achieve any momentum, events played into his hands. On April 30, 2023,
the suspected leader of the Islamic State group, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, was said to have been killed in an apparent Turkish strike in Syria.</p>
<p>Terrorism and political science scholars <a href="https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/graig-klein#tab-1">Graig Klein</a> and <a href="https://www.gettysburg.edu/academic-programs/political-science/faculty/employee_detail.dot?empId=011229447120013384&pageTitle=Scott+Simon+Boddery">Scott Boddery</a> noted how <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-erdogan-took-a-page-from-us-presidents-and-boosted-reelection-campaign-by-claiming-to-have-killed-a-terrorist-205369">Erdoğan claimed credit for the operation</a>, echoing a tried and tested tactic by leaders around the world.</p>
<p>“The targeted killing of al-Qurashi was announced three days after Erdoğan fell sick on national TV and the same day he returned to the campaign trail. The counterterrorism strike created an opportunity for Erdoğan to focus domestic attention on his national security credentials, his role in the anti-Islamic State coalition, and his abilities to be an authoritative and strong leader,” Klein and Boddery wrote.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turkeys-erdogan-took-a-page-from-us-presidents-and-boosted-reelection-campaign-by-claiming-to-have-killed-a-terrorist-205369">Turkey's Erdoğan took a page from US presidents and boosted reelection campaign by claiming to have killed a terrorist</a>
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<h2>3. Pushing science and tech credentials</h2>
<p>But it wasn’t only his self-proclaimed counterterrorism credentials that Erdoğan was pushing to the electorate. As <a href="https://www.lborolondon.ac.uk/about/staff/dr-merve-sancak/">Merve Sancak</a>, a lecturer in political economy at the U.K.’s Loughborough University, noted, the incumbent centered much of his campaign around what <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-framed-his-science-and-tech-great-achievements-as-part-of-election-campaign-206029">he framed as his “great achievements</a>” in putting Turkey firmly on the science and tech map.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in suit and tie exits a red car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528632/original/file-20230526-25028-1dir73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Erdoğan stands next to his Togg T10X, Turkey’s first domestically produced electric car.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/turkeys-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-stands-next-to-his-news-photo/1250748150?adppopup=true">Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>As others pointed to soaring inflation and a sluggish economy, Erdoğan trumpeted a series of initiatives in the lead-in to the first-round vote. These included plans to send a Turkish astronaut to the International Space Station, the launching of an aerospace and technology festival, and state-of-the-art military projects. He even took to driving around in the first “Togg” car – the result of a project to produce a domestically made Turkish national car.</p>
<p>“Erdoğan clearly hoped that these announcements would boost his popularity by creating an image of Turkey becoming a world leader in science and technology,” wrote Sancak.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-framed-his-science-and-tech-great-achievements-as-part-of-election-campaign-206029">How Erdoğan framed his science and tech 'great achievements' as part of election campaign</a>
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<h2>4. After 100 years, what’s next for Turkey?</h2>
<p>Later in 2023, Turkey is set to celebrate its centenary as a modern republic. <a href="https://politicalscience.sdsu.edu/people/kuru">Ahmet Kuru</a>, a political scientist at San Diego State University, argued that <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-centennial-year-turkish-voters-will-choose-between-erdogans-conservative-path-and-the-founders-modernist-vision-202554">what is presented to the electorate</a> is two distinct visions ahead of that landmark occasion: a future in line with that of the country’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, or one that takes Turkey further down an autocratic, religious path.</p>
<p>“Erdoğan seeks to win the election to present himself as the founder of ‘a new Turkey,’ where populist Islamism prevails. Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, wants to revive Atatürk’s secular vision, with certain democratic revisions,” Kuru wrote.</p>
<p>Which way Turkish voters turn will have ripple affects across the world, Kuru added.</p>
<p>“An Erdoğan win will signal that the global rise of right-wing populists is still robust enough to dominate a leading Muslim-majority country. A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, may be celebrated by democrats worldwide as a defeat of a populist Islamist leader, despite his control over the media and state institutions.”</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-centennial-year-turkish-voters-will-choose-between-erdogans-conservative-path-and-the-founders-modernist-vision-202554">In centennial year, Turkish voters will choose between Erdoğan’s conservative path and the founder’s modernist vision</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a second-round vote that will decide the future trajectory of Turkey’s politics.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2046082023-05-05T12:13:22Z2023-05-05T12:13:22ZBiden’s dragging poll numbers won’t matter in 2024 if enough voters loathe his opponent even more<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524177/original/file-20230503-26-qs55un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C11%2C7885%2C5245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden doesn't need to be popular to win the 2024 election -- he just needs his opponent to be more unpopular.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-greets-children-as-he-attends-the-news-photo/1251351170?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Commentators were <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/15/bidens-base-blues-the-president-heads-into-2024-with-his-party-feeling-meh-about-him-00092190">quick to note</a> President Joe Biden’s low job approval and favorability ratings after he announced his long-expected reelection bid on April 25, 2023. </p>
<p>Others have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/opinion/biden-shouldnt-run-2024.html">publicly urged</a> Biden not to run again because of his advanced age. Biden’s popularity has <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx">never really recovered</a> following the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID resurgence in the summer of 2021. </p>
<p>But if former President Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee – right now he’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/trump-leads-desantis-gop-primary-field-new-nbc-poll-rcna81141">leading the primary polls</a> by a fairly wide margin – then Biden is in better shape than the analysts and pundits give him credit for. That’s because Trump remains <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/one-important-way-in-which-joe-biden-and-donald-trump-are-exactly-the-same">even more unpopular</a> than Biden. </p>
<p>Recent political science findings reveal that for most candidates, it’s more valuable to have an unpopular opponent than to be personally popular yourself. This is a phenomenon called “<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/">negative partisanship</a>,” and it’s one of the key reasons why voters often feel like they’re constantly choosing between the lesser of two evils rather than the better of two goods.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue suit, red tie and white shirt, standing behind a Trump sign and next to a big American flag, gesturing with his right hand." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524181/original/file-20230503-20-svvib6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on April 27, 2023, in Manchester, N.H.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-at-a-campaign-rally-on-news-photo/1485857181?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Party loyalty and negative partisanship</h2>
<p>It’s been well documented that rates of loyal partisan voting – that is, voting for the same party for president, U.S. Senate and U.S. House – <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-decline-of-senate-ticket-splitting/">have increased dramatically</a> over the past several decades. But in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001">2016 academic article</a> on the subject, political scientists Alan Abramowitz and Steven Webster found that these increases were highest among voters with strong negative feelings about the opposing party. They also found that these negative feelings about the other party have bigger effects on voters’ choices in elections than positive feelings about their own party. </p>
<p>In other words, the more you dislike the other party, the more loyal you’ll be to your own party. </p>
<p>These days, negative partisanship shows up everywhere in American politics, particularly for Democrats. </p>
<p>In the 2020 and 2022 elections, for example, Democratic donors from across the country contributed millions to Democratic candidates like <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=KYS1">Amy McGrath</a> in Kentucky and <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2022&id=GA14&spec=N">Marcus Flowers</a> in Georgia. </p>
<p>What do these candidates have in common? They both lost to Republicans whom Democrats despise: McGrath lost to Sen. Mitch McConnell, and Flowers lost to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. </p>
<p>Neither of the Democratic opponents ever stood much of a chance. Their contributors were motivated not so much by the possibility of winning these races but by the satisfaction of putting up a fight against two of the Democrats’ most notorious foes in Washington. </p>
<p>As a candidate, Biden already has been the beneficiary of negative partisanship. In the 2020 primary, Biden was not most Democrats’ ideal candidate in terms of agreement on the issues. Supporters of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548">reported more agreement</a> with their candidates’ ideological positions compared with Biden. </p>
<p>Despite this, Biden prevailed fairly easily, but not because he persuaded voters to come around to his issue positions. Instead, he harnessed negative partisanship: Democratic primary voters <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/268448/democrats-thinking-strategically-2020-nominee-choice.aspx">were not as concerned</a> with putting forward their ideal candidate as they were about beating Donald Trump in the general election. These voters – correctly or not – <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/electability-democratic-primary-polls_n_5e2b47d3c5b67d8874b17936">saw Biden</a> as the best shot of doing that. </p>
<p>In the end, the 2020 primary outcome was the result of strong negative partisanship against Donald Trump.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of women in a protest crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524185/original/file-20230503-1264-4x9ca6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biden has the benefit of a Democratic electorate intensely angry at Republicans for legislative pushes on abortion and transgender rights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/activists-gather-at-the-us-supreme-court-in-washington-d-c-news-photo/1252222712?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not inspiring politics</h2>
<p>What does this mean for the 2024 presidential race? </p>
<p>Negative partisanship appears to be working in Biden’s favor. He has the benefit of a Democratic electorate that is intensely angry at Republicans for <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/13/florida-6-week-abortion-ban-bill-00091965">recent legislative pushes against abortion</a> and <a href="https://idahocapitalsun.com/2023/04/04/it-is-now-a-crime-in-idaho-to-provide-gender-affirming-care-to-transgender-youth/">transgender rights</a>. </p>
<p>Perhaps more importantly, Biden has a likely Republican opponent who is more loathed by Democrats – and many independents – than perhaps any politician in recent memory. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2023/04/Fox_April-21-24-2023_National_Topline_April-26-Release.pdf">recent Fox News poll</a>, 40% of voters report having a “strongly unfavorable” view of Biden – not the numbers you’re hoping for as an incumbent. But an even higher number, 45%, feel the same way about Donald Trump. </p>
<p>It gets worse for Trump: According to a <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/as-biden-runs-for-president-again-4-in-10-americans-say-hes-done-a-good-job">PBS NewsHour poll</a>, 64% of the public, including 68% of independents, say they do not want Trump to be president again. </p>
<p>It’s these numbers, not Biden’s, that tell more about whether the 2020 coalition of voters will show up for Biden again – assuming that Trump is the Republican nominee.</p>
<p>The evidence suggests that Democrats and left-leaning independents will rally around Biden, whatever his faults, because their top priority above all others is keeping Donald Trump out of office again. </p>
<p>The motivating power of negative partisanship means that the combined anger directed against Republican policies and the party’s likely nominee seem poised to make Democrats and left-leaning independents fall in line, despite their <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/lack-of-voter-enthusiasm-poses-hurdle-for-joe-bidens-re-election-ee3cfa57">lack of enthusiasm</a> for Biden.</p>
<p>This isn’t the most inspiring form of politics. Surely, most Americans would prefer to vote positively for a vision of the future they can get behind rather than just settling for the least objectionable leader available. </p>
<p>But, for now, negative partisanship is the central force in American politics, and it’s important to be clear-eyed about its role.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It doesn’t make for inspiring politics, but political scientists have determined that for candidates, it’s more valuable to have an unpopular opponent than to be personally popular yourself.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018752023-03-16T14:11:49Z2023-03-16T14:11:49ZNigeria had 93 million registered voters, but only a quarter voted: 5 reasons why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515514/original/file-20230315-24-6u2qey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria’s voter turnout has been declining since 2007. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/independent-national-electoral-commission-officials-go-news-photo/1247473647?phrase=nigeria%20voters%20during%20election%202023&adppopup=true">Samuel Alabi/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Nigerians went to the polls <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/2/25/photos-nigeria-holds-presidential-and-parliamentary-elections">in late February</a> to vote for a new president, as well as representatives to two houses of the federal parliament. The turnout was abysmal. There were <a href="https://punchng.com/inec-final-list-north-west-swest-top-93-million-voter-register/">over 93 million registered voters</a>. But only <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/586788-nigeriadecides2023-only-27-of-eligible-voters-decide-who-becomes-nigerias-president.html">a little over 25 million people voted</a>. The Conversation Africa asked political scientist Chikodiri Nwangwu to unpack what happened.</em></p>
<h2>Why was Nigeria’s voter turnout so low?</h2>
<p>Firstly, there was insufficient voter education. Many Nigerians don’t understand the benefits of political participation, or don’t understand the electoral process. Little effort is made to explain it to them.</p>
<p>Although voter education is the <a href="https://placng.org/i/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Electoral-Act-2022.pdf">statutory responsibility</a> of both the electoral commission and political parties, their commitment to this task has been rather underwhelming. Many adult Nigerians – especially in remote areas where media access and literacy levels are low – lack adequate appreciation of the voting process. They also don’t know enough about political parties’ ideologies and internal workings. </p>
<p>Secondly, there were <a href="https://businessday.ng/nigeriadecidesliveupdates/article/n305bn-election-spend-fails-to-dent-familiar-logistical-nightmares/">logistical challenges</a> for the electoral body. Voting material was delivered late, even on election day.</p>
<p>Some voters got discouraged and left their polling centres because of the <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/584390-nigeriadecides2023-nba-decries-late-arrival-of-inec-officials-materials.html">late arrival of materials</a>.</p>
<p>Thirdly, there was a lack of confidence in the electoral commission’s capacity to conduct credible elections. This point was noted in the <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/2023/EU%20EOM%20NIGERIA%202023_FIRST%20PRELIMINARY%20STATEMENT%20_27_02_2023.pdf">European Union election observer report</a> after the election. The report says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>On election night, trust in the institution was seen to diminish due to information gaps and INEC’s failure to promptly respond to stakeholder disquiet over logistical and security lapses and later the failure of public access to presidential results on the IReV.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>IReV is the online portal where polling unit-level results are uploaded directly from the polling unit, transmitted and made available for public monitoring. INEC is the country’s electoral agency, the Independent National Electoral Commission.</p>
<p>Fourthly, voters might have stayed away because they were scared. Nigeria has a long history of violence <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-violence-every-election-season-in-nigeria-what-can-be-done-to-stop-it-183690">during elections</a>. </p>
<p>Fifth is the issue of apathy. The failure to turn up could be read as a vote of no confidence in the Nigerian state. The government’s recurrent failure to arrest the country’s growing social problems, like <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/nigeria-cash-crisis-ends-31-months-of-growth-in-business-activity?leadSource=uverify%20wall">the cash crisis</a> and petrol scarcity, are reasons for voter apathy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-poll-93-million-voters-the-challenge-of-pulling-off-nigerias-presidential-elections-199761">How to poll 93 million voters – the challenge of pulling off Nigeria's presidential elections</a>
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<h2>How low was the turnout compared to previous years?</h2>
<p>Voter turnout refers to the percentage of people who actually take part in an election relative to the total number of registered voters. More broadly, it compares the total number of people of voting age in a country and those who cast their ballot during a particular election. <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/586788-nigeriadecides2023-only-27-of-eligible-voters-decide-who-becomes-nigerias-president.html">A little over 25 million voters</a>, about 28.63% of the registered voters, turned out for the 25 February 2023 elections. <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/preliminary-number-of-registered-voters-in-nigeria-now-93-5m-says-inec">Over 93 million voters</a> were registered to vote in the elections. </p>
<p>Data from the election management body shows that Nigeria’s voter turnout has been declining almost every year since 2007. </p>
<p>Voter turnout went up from <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/586193-analysis-trend-of-low-voter-turnout-continues-in-nigerian-elections.html">52.3% in 1999</a> – the first general election since 1993 – to <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/586193-analysis-trend-of-low-voter-turnout-continues-in-nigerian-elections.html">69% in 2003</a>. But it’s been on the decline nearly ever since – <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/586193-analysis-trend-of-low-voter-turnout-continues-in-nigerian-elections.html">57.5% in 2007, 53.7% in 2011, 43.7% in 2015 and 34.8% in 2019.</a> This year’s is 28.63%. </p>
<p>Increasing voter registration has failed to translate into more voters turning out.</p>
<p>Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress was declared winner <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64760226">with fewer than 9 million votes</a>. This is 36.61% of the votes cast to govern a country with a population of 220 million people.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bola-ahmed-tinubu-the-kingmaker-is-now-nigerias-president-200383">Bola Ahmed Tinubu: The kingmaker is now Nigeria's president</a>
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<h2>What can be done to turn the tide?</h2>
<p>The Independent National Electoral Commission and political parties should be more committed to educating the voting public on the importance of participating in politics. </p>
<p>Competent logistics companies should be used in the delivery of sensitive voting materials instead of an approach that has proved to incubate electoral disenfranchisement and voter apathy. </p>
<p>Relevant security agencies should be more proactive and intelligence-driven in quelling political thuggery and electoral violence. </p>
<p>Further, the electoral commission should deal firmly with politicians who aid political violence in Nigeria. Above all, the government should be unmistakably committed to delivering democratic goods to regain public trust and confidence in electoral processes.</p>
<p>Lastly, there should be a proper audit of the voter register. This has never happened, and in my view the register is largely inaccurate. The increasing use of voter accreditation technology since 2015 has shown that figures for previous voter turnouts are inaccurate. The new technology has thrown up attempts at fraud and the manipulation of registration processes.</p>
<p>Given the lack of an audit, it would not be surprising if the current register contained names of those who have died and other ineligible voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chikodiri Nwangwu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Greater awareness of the importance of voting is needed to improve the voter turnout in Nigeria’s elections.Chikodiri Nwangwu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of NigeriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995812023-03-06T13:35:55Z2023-03-06T13:35:55ZAmericans remain hopeful about democracy despite fears of its demise – and are acting on that hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513208/original/file-20230302-83-yerkvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C109%2C4311%2C2760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black voters are punishing anti-democratic candidates at the ballot box.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BlackVotersWisconsin/650e7d8af49a4535b74a3851d47c8f99/photo?Query=black%20voters%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=797&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Morry Gash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden will <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/29/joint-statement-between-costa-rica-the-netherlands-the-republic-of-korea-the-republic-of-zambia-and-the-united-states-on-the-announcement-of-the-second-summit-for-democracy/">convene world leaders beginning on March 29, 2023</a>, to discuss the state of democracies around the world.</p>
<p>The Summit for Democracy, a virtual event being co-hosted by the White House, is being <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/">touted as an opportunity</a> to “reflect, listen and learn” with the aim of encouraging “democratic renewal.”</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8LCrZXcAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a>, <a href="https://andrenewright.com/">we have been</a> <a href="https://polisci.la.psu.edu/people/map6814/">doing something</a> very similar. In the fall of 2022 we listened to thousands of U.S. residents about their views on the state of American democracy. What we found was that, despite widespread fears over the future of democracy, many people are also hopeful, and that hope translated into “voting for democracy” by <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2022-12-30/how-democracy-fought-back-in-2022">shunning election result deniers at the polls</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">study</a> – and indeed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/politics/biden-democracy-threat.html">Biden’s stated push for democracy</a> – comes at a unique point in American political history.</p>
<p>As a group, we have decades of experience studying politics and believe that not since the American Civil War has there been so much concern that American democracy, while always a <a href="https://www.loc.gov/loc/lcib/0704/franklin.html">work in progress</a>, is under threat. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/06/06/public-trust-in-government-1958-2022/">Survey trends</a> point to eroding trust in democratic institutions. And in addition to serving as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/03/1069764164/american-democracy-poll-jan-6">direct reminder</a> of our political system’s fragility, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol provoked concern of the potential of <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/11/where-are-we-going-america/">democratic backsliding</a> in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Fears of a failing democracy</h2>
<p>The 2022 midterms were the first nationwide ballot to take place after the Jan. 6 attack. The vote provided a good opportunity to check in with potential U.S. voters over how they viewed the risks to democracy.</p>
<p>As such, in the fall of 2022, the <a href="https://africanamericanresearch.us/">African American Research Collaborative</a> – of which one of us is a member – worked with a team of <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/partners/">partners</a> to create the <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">Midterm Election Voter Poll</a>. In an online and phone survey, we asked more than 12,000 U.S. voters from a variety of backgrounds a series of questions about voting intention and trust in national politics. Respondents were also quizzed over their concern about the state of American democracy.</p>
<p>On a five-point scale ranging from “very” to “not at all,” the survey asked how worried respondents were that: “The political system in the United States is failing and there is a decent chance that we will no longer have a functioning democracy within the next 10 years.”</p>
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<p>Roughly 6 in 10 Americans expressed fear that democracy is in peril, with 35% saying they were “very worried.”</p>
<p>Broken down by race and ethnicity, white Americans were the most concerned, with 64% expressing some worry that democracy is in peril. Black and Latino Americans were slightly less concerned. Asian Americans appeared the least worried, with 55% expressing concern. </p>
<p>Of the 63% of respondents who registered concern, more than half said they were “very worried” that democracy is in trouble and that it may soon come to an end.</p>
<p>Such fragility-of-democracy concerns can have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/my987">self-perpetuating effect</a>; voters’ increasing lack of faith in their system can hasten the collapse in government they fear. </p>
<p>For example, negative attitudes about democracy can also destabilize voting habits – prompting some to skip elections altogether while motivating others to swing back and forth between candidates and political parties from one election to another. This pattern of voting can, in turn, lead to gridlock in government or worse: the election of cynical politicians who are less able – or even willing – to govern. It is a process that former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts described in 2015 as the “self-fulfilling prophesy of ‘<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/the-self-fulfilling-prophecy-of-government-doesnt-work-213375/">government doesn’t work</a>.’” </p>
<h2>Turning hope into action</h2>
<p>But the story that emerged from our survey isn’t all doom and gloom. </p>
<p>In addition to confirming how endangered Americans believe their democracy is, citizens appear hopeful that their political system can recover. When given the prompt: “Overall, as you vote in November 2022, are you mostly feeling …,” more than 40% of the respondents – regardless of race or ethnicity – said they felt “hopeful.” </p>
<p>Indeed, “hope” was by far the most common feeling out of the four emotions that respondents were able to choose from. “Worry” was the second most typical emotion, with 31% of the total sample selecting it, followed by “pride” and “anger.”</p>
<p>Rather than resigning themselves to a lost democracy, the results indicate that voters from a broad array of demographic and political backgrounds feel hopeful that American democracy can overcome the challenges facing the nation.</p>
<p><iframe id="8GvT6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8GvT6/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Black Americans were among the most hopeful (49%), second only to Asian Americans (55%), while white Americans were the most worried (33%). These racial and ethnic differences are consistent with <a href="https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v8i2.847">recent research</a> on how emotions can shape politics.</p>
<p>The results also make sense in the context of the trajectory of race relations in the U.S. Black people have borne the brunt of what happens when authoritarian forces in this country have prevailed. They have suffered firsthand from anti-democratic actions being used against them, depriving them of the right to vote, for example. Throughout U.S. history, stories of racial progress often reveal a <a href="https://www.matteroffact.tv/what-factors-determine-a-sense-of-belonging-in-america-this-college-professor-crafted-a-study-to-find-out/">struggle to reconcile</a> feelings of hope and worry – particularly when thinking about what America is versus what the nation ought to be.</p>
<p>Such hope in democracy has turned into action. Efforts to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/voting-rights-georgia-activism-us-elections">counter</a> GOP-led attempts to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-push-to-restrict-voting-could-affect-our-elections/">suppress votes</a> are encouraging signs of citizens combating anti-democratic measures, while punishing parties deemed to be pushing them.</p>
<p>Take the example of Georgia, which has “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-georgia-turned-blue/">flipped from Republican to Democrat</a>” in large part because of voting rights activist and Democratic politician Stacey Abrams’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html">tireless mobilization efforts</a>. In the midterm election, GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed among Black voters, winning less of the Black vote than GOP candidates in other states.</p>
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<p>The breaking of the Republican stronghold in Georgia fits with a broader theme of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/01/06/last-night-in-georgia-black-americans-saved-democracy/">Black voters casting ballots to “save democracy</a>,” as scholars writing for the Brookings Institution think tank put it. In rejecting anti-democratic measures – and representatives of the party held responsible – in Georgia, “Black people were the solution for an authentic democracy.”</p>
<p>Black women <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26855823">deserve the most credit</a> here, consistently voting for pro-democracy candidates. Not surprisingly, when broken down by race and gender, our survey shows that Black women are most hopeful (56%), some way ahead of white men (43%), with Black men and white women both at 42%.</p>
<h2>A democracy, to keep for good.</h2>
<p>Democracy has long been a cherished ideal in the U.S. – but one that from the country’s founding was perceived to be fragile. </p>
<p>When asked what sort of political system the Founding Fathers had agreed upon during the <a href="https://www.constitutionfacts.com/us-constitution-amendments/the-constitutional-convention/">Constitutional Convention of 1787</a>, Benjamin Franklin famously replied: “<a href="https://tinyurl.com/2s3dcedy">A republic, if you can keep it</a>.”</p>
<p>While acknowledging that the success of our government isn’t promised, Franklin’s words serve as a reminder that <a href="https://youtu.be/nDg3EsMcsBs">citizens must work relentlessly</a> to maintain and protect what the Constitution provides. What we’ve discovered, both from our survey and from how people voted, is that Americans are sending a clear message that they support democracy, and will fight anti-democratic measures – something that politicians of all parties might benefit from listening to if we want to keep our republic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Block Jr works for the African American Research Collaborative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrene Wright and Mia Angelica Powell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey of more than 12,000 US voters found that Black Americans are among the most hopeful about the direction of politics – and they are turning that emotion into action at the polls.Ray Block Jr, Brown-McCourtney Career Development Professor in the McCourtney Institute and associate professor of political science and African American studies, Penn StateAndrene Wright, Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow, Penn StateMia Angelica Powell, PhD Student in Department of Political Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002892023-02-23T07:11:06Z2023-02-23T07:11:06ZElection observers are important for democracy – but few voters know what they do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511364/original/file-20230221-14-2b9goz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of a European Union election observation team speak to voters in Zimbabwe. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election observers keep watch over polls throughout the world. Their job is to support efforts to improve electoral quality and to provide transparency. In African countries, both local citizen and international observers have been deployed regularly since the 1990s. </p>
<p>During several recent elections across the continent, however, questions have arisen about the competence and impartiality of observation missions. This has led to concerns about the future of observation, both in Africa and elsewhere.</p>
<p>In 2023, <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2023/02/africa-elections-all-upcoming-votes/">more than 20 African countries</a> are scheduled to go to the polls. It will be a busy year for observers who’ll <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/uhuru-to-head-au-polls-mission-in-nigeria-4124542">be present</a> at the majority of these elections. </p>
<p>When done well, election observation <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0010414008325571">detects</a> ballot-box stuffing, voter suppression and political violence. Observers’ presence at polling stations <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/electoral-fraud-or-violence-the-effect-of-observers-on-party-manipulation-strategies/C1EC14B4C4BBB2156A9A17A24F6A90DF">deters election-day fraud</a>.</p>
<p>Observers also provide public statements about election quality and offer recommendations on how electoral processes could be improved. </p>
<p>Yet some observers have been criticised for a reluctance to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/comparative-studies-in-society-and-history/article/abs/valid-electoral-exercise-ugandas-1980-elections-and-the-observers-dilemma/300FE5D9472423B0C1F19813688EA87D">point out flawed processes</a>, for holding <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/election-observers-and-their-biases/">biases</a> and for weaknesses in their methodologies. </p>
<p>The perception that observation missions’ verdicts were “proved wrong” by court judgements in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2019.1657277">Kenya (2017)</a> and <a href="https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/news/malawi-courts-landmark-ruling-puts-spotlight-on-foreign-observers/">Malawi (2019)</a> has been particularly damaging. In both cases, many commentators (mis)interpreted international observers’ statements as endorsements of electoral processes that the courts later annulled.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-kenyas-judiciary-can-break-the-cycle-of-electoral-violence-182710">How Kenya's judiciary can break the cycle of electoral violence</a>
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<p>It’s not clear how widely held these critical views are. The perspectives of the broader public in countries holding elections are often missing from discussions on observation. So we set out to get a sense of what voters in three African countries thought.</p>
<p>We found that people wanted to know more about election observers, but couldn’t easily get the information. Both the media and observers need to do more to provide it. Knowledge of observers’ goals and statements is essential if they are to play the role of public arbiters of election quality. </p>
<h2>What citizens think</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/lmeo">research</a> into citizen perceptions and media representations of election observation took place in Zambia, The Gambia and Kenya. These three countries have had varying experiences of election observation. </p>
<p>We interviewed 520 citizens about topics relating to their perceptions of election observation. In each country, we conducted in-depth interviews in both urban and rural areas, and in constituencies that supported the opposition and the incumbent. </p>
<p>Ordinary citizens in our case study countries rarely offered criticisms of election observation. </p>
<p>For example, we asked 120 Kenyans to evaluate the past performance of election observers during the run-up to the country’s 2022 election. Only one person referred to <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/article/future-election-observation-after-kenyas-supreme-court-judgement">the controversy</a> surrounding observation in 2017 and the supreme court’s annulment of the presidential election.</p>
<p>Instead, we found <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/pdf/Local%20Perceptions%20of%20Election%20Observation__Jan23.pdf#page=2">strong support</a> for election observation among citizens. This was the case in all three of our case study countries, which cover east, southern and west Africa. </p>
<p>Our respondents tended to have concerns about the electoral process in their own country. They spoke favourably about the potential of observation to improve overall electoral quality and transparency. They also felt that observers contributed to reducing the potentially destabilising effects of elections, such as violence. </p>
<p>In both Zambia and Kenya, support for the presence of international observers was higher than support for citizen observers. Respondents in The Gambia, however, tended to prefer citizen observers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-rest-of-africa-can-learn-from-the-gambias-transition-to-democracy-71822">What the rest of Africa can learn from The Gambia's transition to democracy</a>
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<p>The explanations from those who chose international observers highlighted a perception that they were more impartial than citizen observers, who were often viewed as being biased or corruptible. </p>
<p>Perceptions in Zambia and Kenya may be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2023.2173177">influenced</a> by:</p>
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<li><p>political polarisation</p></li>
<li><p>a perception that political corruption is high</p></li>
<li><p>the prominence of ethnicity in politics. </p></li>
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<p>These factors appear to reduce confidence in citizen observers. </p>
<p>Despite the popularity of election observers in our case study countries, we found that citizens knew little about their roles. Few could name any specific observation missions. Citizens often confused observers with other electoral actors like polling station staff, the electoral management body and party agents. </p>
<p>It’s common for citizens to believe observers can and should intervene in the electoral process. Yet, non-interference should be a key principle for both <a href="https://gndem.org/declaration-of-global-principles/">citizen</a> and <a href="https://www.ndi.org/DoP">international election observers</a>. </p>
<h2>The information gap</h2>
<p>Our interviews made it clear that citizens – especially those in rural areas – found it difficult to get information about the activities and statements of election observers. Few of the respondents heard this information when missions issued their preliminary statements.</p>
<p>The media can bridge this information gap by providing more coverage of election observation. </p>
<p>The quality of this coverage could also be improved, as observers’ preliminary statements are <a href="https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/re-evaluating-international-observation-of-kenyas-2017-elections">often mischaracterised</a>. </p>
<p>Observers’ statements tend to be complex and nuanced because they are commenting on numerous aspects of an ongoing process. In media coverage, these statements are often reduced to simple either/or judgements (such as “free and fair”). </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>Our project has drawn upon interviews with African journalists and editors to create a short <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/doc/Tips%20for%20Journalists%20and%20Editors%20who%20Cover%20Election%20Observation_.pdf">list of tips</a> on covering election observation. These are designed to improve the circulation of accurate information. The tips include getting a range of perspectives from observer missions and reaching out to them early.</p>
<p>Observer missions could also be more active in raising the profile of their work. We created a <a href="https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/doc/Media%20Representations%20of%20Election%20Observation_Jan23.pdf#page=6">list of suggestions</a> from the media in our three case study countries to help them do this. One of the tips is to interact with the media in local languages.</p>
<p>Citizens are more likely to criticise observers for the poor flow of information than for anything else. This doesn’t invalidate other criticisms of observers. In fact, if citizens begin to get more information, these criticisms may become more common. Our research suggests the media and observers need to provide it anyway.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200289/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Molony receives funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), for the ‘Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa’ research project, under grant reference ES/T015624/1.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Macdonald receives funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), for the ‘Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa’ research project, under grant reference ES/T015624/1.</span></em></p>Voters speak favourably about the potential of observation to improve overall electoral quality and transparency.Thomas Molony, Senior Lecturer in African Studies, The University of EdinburghRobert Macdonald, Research Fellow in African Studies, The University of EdinburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004562023-02-22T15:33:26Z2023-02-22T15:33:26ZNigeria heads to the polls: 5 essential reads about the elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511682/original/file-20230222-695-vxi0s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emmage/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigerians go to the polls on <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/02/19/the-many-contests-of-february-25/">25 February</a> to elect a new president, vice-president, 109 members of the Senate and 360 members of the Federal House of Representatives. <a href="https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Final-List-of-Candidates-for-National-Elections-1.pdf">Eighteen political parties</a> have presented candidates for the various offices and over <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/preliminary-number-of-registered-voters-in-nigeria-now-93-5m-says-inec">93.5 million</a> adult Nigerians are registered to vote. </p>
<p>The elections will be conducted at 176,606 polling stations spread across the 774 local government areas of the country. It is Africa’s biggest election and presents huge logistical challenges for the Independent National Electoral Commission, the electoral umpire.</p>
<p>Working with our academic experts, The Conversation Africa has published a number of articles on the elections. Here are five essential reads. </p>
<h2>10 factors that could affect the outcome</h2>
<p>The 2023 general election in Nigeria is the seventh since the current wave of liberal democracy formally started in 1999. In the last 24 years, Nigeria’s democracy has witnessed some growth. But there have been challenges too. These challenges often affect the way voters react at the polls. Ethnicity, religion, money, history and insecurity have been identified as some of the forces that will be at play as voters elect the next set of leaders on 25 February. </p>
<p>Political scientist Jideofor Adibe itemises these factors and the role they may play in the election outcome. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-2023-presidential-election-10-factors-that-could-affect-the-outcome-195247">Nigeria's 2023 presidential election: 10 factors that could affect the outcome</a>
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<h2>How to poll 93.5 million voters</h2>
<p>There are 18 political parties fielding candidates for the presidential election, 1,101 candidates for the Senate and 3,122 candidates vying for federal constituencies in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>The elections will be conducted across 176,606 polling stations. To make this happen, the electoral commission is deploying 1,265,227 trained officials, among them 530,538 polling unit security officials. </p>
<p>To move electoral materials and officials, over 100,000 vehicles and about 4,200 boats, accompanied by naval gunboats, are required. To cap it all, this is all happening at a time when the country is in a state of insecurity and there is a scarcity of fuel and cash. </p>
<p>Political institutions and governance expert Emmanuel Remi Aiyede breaks down the logistical challenges.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511938/original/file-20230223-4058-i49d2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nigeria election infographic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Infographic: The Conversation Africa / Data: INEC Nigeria – Independent National Electoral Commission</span></span>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-poll-93-million-voters-the-challenge-of-pulling-off-nigerias-presidential-elections-199761">How to poll 93 million voters – the challenge of pulling off Nigeria's presidential elections</a>
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<h2>Atiku Abubakar: a 6th time contender</h2>
<p>Although it is a crowded contest, one of the leading contenders for the office of the Nigerian president is Atiku Abubakar. The former vice-president (1999-2007) is the candidate for Nigeria’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party. </p>
<p>Abubakar is not new to the race for Nigeria’s presidency. He has been running since 1992 – this is his sixth attempt. He was on the ballot in 2007 and 2019, and lost in party presidential primaries in 1993, 2011 and 2015.</p>
<p>Political scientist Hakeem Onapajo identifies hurdles on Abubakar’s way to the presidential villa this time around. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/atiku-abubakar-nigerias-perennial-presidential-candidate-is-back-on-the-stump-187468">Atiku Abubakar: Nigeria's perennial presidential candidate is back on the stump</a>
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<h2>Bola Tinubu: Kingmaker wanting to be king</h2>
<p>Another major contender is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is a first time contender for the number one office in Nigeria, but Tinubu is widely believed to have been the political kingmaker responsible for the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. </p>
<p>The former governor of Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, between 1999 and 2007, Tinubu also nominated Yemi Osinbajo into his current role as vice-president. He is sometimes described as the godfather of politics in Lagos and, by extension, in other parts of Nigeria.</p>
<p>But can the kingmaker become the king?</p>
<p>Journalist and communications scholar Olayinka Oyegbile analyses controversies surrounding Tinubu and his chances at the polls.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bola-ahmed-tinubu-the-kingmaker-is-now-nigerias-president-200383">Bola Ahmed Tinubu: The kingmaker is now Nigeria's president</a>
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<h2>Peter Obi: from underdog to a leading candidate</h2>
<p>Leader of what is described as the Obidient movement, Peter Gregory Obi is a businessman and former governor of Anambra State, in the south-east region of Nigeria. </p>
<p>Obi’s supporters coined the word Obidient and have used it to maximum effect in the 2023 campaign for this first-time contender. </p>
<p>With a largely youthful and internet-savvy support base, Obi started off the campaign as an underdog, especially as he is contesting on the platform of the lesser known Labour Party. </p>
<p>Midway into the campaign, he had made quite an impact and was considered one of the leading contenders for the occupancy of Aso Rock villa, Nigeria’s presidential residence and office. </p>
<p>Political scientist Kester Onor describes the enigma called Peter Obi. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/peter-obi-could-be-the-force-that-topples-nigerias-two-main-political-parties-199758">Peter Obi could be the force that topples Nigeria's two main political parties</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Nigerians head to the polls for presidential elections on 25 February. Here are five things you should know about the elections.Adejuwon Soyinka, Regional Editor West AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961662022-12-07T20:13:20Z2022-12-07T20:13:20ZGeorgia runoff: Candidate quality meant fewer Republicans turned out for Walker<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499579/original/file-20221207-16-xkrtgy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C5082%2C3301&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When it came down to it, some Republicans couldn't vote for Herschel Walker.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022SenateGeorgia/3a6b374298234f818f5242d6a48488b9/photo?Query=warnock&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1715&currentItemNo=19">AP Photo/Brynn Anderson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Runoff elections tend to be races of attrition. Turnout will most likely be lower, as voters are less accustomed to turning out for off-cycle elections. Candidates, then, must try to minimize attrition among their supporters, and the one with the least erosion is most likely to win. </p>
<p>Such was the case in Georgia on Dec. 6, 2022. Fewer people voted for either candidate in the runoff: Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, saw the number of people who turned out to vote for him <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/116564/web.307039/#/detail/10100">drop by about 131,000</a> from <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/detail/10100">the November vote</a>; Republican Herschel Walker lost closer to 200,000 voters. This would explain how Warnock was able to grow his lead in the runoff. </p>
<h2>On turnouts and turnoffs</h2>
<p>Overall, voter turnout in the Georgia Senate <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/116564/web.307039/#/detail/10100">runoff election was nearly 90%</a> of the <a href="https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/detail/10100">turnout in the November general election</a>. That’s not a huge drop-off and reflects voter interest in the outcome of a race that has been the subject of <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgia-runoff-elections-are-exciting-but-costly-for-voters-and-democracy-195786">intense mobilization campaigns</a> by both candidates in the past month.</p>
<p>When looking at the 10 counties with the highest proportional attrition from November to December – that is, counties where runoff turnout was only 83% to 88.1% of general election turnout – one thing stands out: They were all in metro and exurban Atlanta or north Georgia, the counties close to Tennessee and the South Carolina state line near I-85. </p>
<p>While some of these counties are Republican strongholds, many of them are <a href="https://lcfgeorgia.org/news/2020-census-data-release/">increasingly diverse racially</a>. Some of these counties are also rich with the college-educated white voters whom both parties covet.</p>
<p>Warnock earned a higher percentage of the vote in the runoff compared with November in each of these “high-attrition” counties. Walker, however, lost vote share in three of these counties.</p>
<p>Furthermore, in the seven high-attrition counties where both Warnock and Walker got a larger percentage of the vote than they did in November, Warnock garnered more vote share in all but the three most sparsely populated counties.</p>
<p>This suggests that Warnock may have won the majority of the eliminated Libertarian candidate’s votes that <a href="https://georgiarecorder.com/2022/11/25/can-warnock-or-walker-win-over-the-81000-georgians-who-voted-for-the-libertarian-in-november/">were up for grabs in the runoff</a>. </p>
<p>There was also a nontrivial number of <a href="https://www.georgiavotes.com/">new runoff voters</a> – people who voted in the runoff but not in November. We know that <a href="https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgia-early-voting-walker-or-warnock-election/85-d73812c4-422f-454c-989a-aec7a6d5ee29">almost 78,000 of these new voters</a> participated in early voting, and that this group was disproportionately voters of color – people who <a href="https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-future-is-ours/book237079">tend to vote Democratic</a>.</p>
<p>Warnock overperformed in the most densely populated counties, too. My analysis shows that in the 10 counties that cast the most ballots in this election cycle, Warnock improved his vote share in the runoff by a range of 1 to 3.2 percentage points in each county. Walker, meanwhile, lost vote share in six of the 10 counties.</p>
<p>There was only one county of the top 10 – Hall County – where Walker’s increase in vote share outpaced Warnock’s increase. With the exception of Chatham County, home of Savannah, all of the vote-rich counties where Warnock gained and Walker tended to lose vote share are in metro or exurban Atlanta. </p>
<h2>Deficiencies as a candidate</h2>
<p>This raises the necessary but uncomfortable conversation about candidate quality. Pundits and observers had long been concerned that <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2022/11/04/herschel-walker-midterm-election-candidates-threat-democracy/8251963001/">Walker’s deficiencies as a candidate</a> would be a particular turnoff to suburban Republican voters, and that they might register their opposition by not voting at all. That more attrition took place in and around Atlanta suggests that there were grounds for that concern. </p>
<p>Walker was particularly compromised as a candidate. By standard <a href="https://ces.iga.ucdavis.edu/mwpsa99.pdf">political science measures of candidate quality</a> – such as whether a candidate has relevant prior experience – Walker was a low-quality candidate.</p>
<p>His <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/23/herschel-walker-anti-tree-gaffes/">unintelligible policy pronouncements</a> and <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/herschel-walkers-reacts-obama-werewolf-vampire-joke-1234641202/">bizarre non sequiturs about bulls and werewolves</a> only reinforced the impression among some voters that he was not capable of handling the job of U.S. senator.</p>
<p>And when you compound those problems with the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/feature/senate-runoff-nears-herschel-walkers-ex-girlfriend-details-abuse-rcna60050">explosive allegations about domestic violence</a> and pressuring <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-life-herschel-walker-paid-for-girlfriends-abortion-georgia-senate">girlfriends to get abortions</a>, it looks like a small but significant sliver of likely Republican voters decided to prioritize their concerns about candidate quality over naked partisanship.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Warnock has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/Georgia-election-results-4b82ba7ee3cc74d33e68daadaee2cbf3">nearly two years of Senate experience</a> and was able to draw on a modicum of incumbency advantage to help him in the contest. This was certainly reflected in his <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/runoff-watch-warnock-doubles-walkers-fundraising-haul-rcna58925">prodigious fundraising</a> over the course of this cycle.</p>
<p>Yet Warnock was one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in this midterm election cycle for a reason. Georgia Democrats may be increasing in number and voting power, but other recent elections suggest there are still more Republican than Democratic voters in the state. Other GOP nominees in the state, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1134173355/georgia-midterm-election-governor-results-kemp-abrams">such as Gov. Brian Kemp</a>, were able to coast on that numerical advantage and Joe Biden’s net negative favorability to win decisive victories in November – without runoffs.</p>
<p>That Walker struggled was a signal of his weaknesses as a candidate. But many of his weaknesses and his lack of experience were known going into the primaries. That should have been enough for Republican leaders to challenge <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/570678-trump-endorses-hershel-walker-for-georgia-senate-seat/">Donald Trump’s insistence</a> that Walker was the best candidate to run against Warnock. </p>
<p>In the future, the Republican Party might think twice about selecting a candidate based on a party leader’s whim and not experience, substance or a demonstration of electability. If there is one lesson we can take from the 2022 Georgia Senate election, it is that candidate quality matters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andra Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Analysis of voting data suggests that in counties across Georgia, a slice of Republicans just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Herschel Walker.Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor, Political Science, Emory UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925232022-11-17T17:51:17Z2022-11-17T17:51:17ZEnergy transitions: why countries respond differently to the same problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493306/original/file-20221103-17-l6lpqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7972%2C5940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A country’s ability to pursue major energy reforms hinges on the government’s capacity to defuse political opposition.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-wind-farm-coalfired-power-2178791391">WilfriedB/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global energy markets. Sanctions on Russian exports and the suspension of gas deliveries to several European countries sent <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-response-ukraine-invasion/impact-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-on-the-markets-eu-response/%20-%20:%7E:text=Since%20the%20second%20half%20of,energy%20supply%20in%20the%20EU">oil and gas prices</a> skywards. </p>
<p>The magnitude of the shock is reminiscent of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/03/1970s-oil-price-shock">1970s oil crisis</a>, where an embargo imposed on the sale of oil by members of the Organisation of Petrol Exporting Countries led to global fuel shortages and elevated prices. Governments sought to reduce their dependence on imported oil by transitioning their energy systems towards domestic resources. Facing the current crisis, countries are also moving away from importing energy while pursuing decarbonisation. </p>
<p>In both instances, some have been more successful than others in pursuing energy reform. My colleagues and I <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adc9973">analysed</a> the response of industrialised democracies to the 1970s crisis, climate change and to the current energy crisis. We found that a country’s ability to pursue major energy reforms hinges on the government’s capacity to defuse political opposition.</p>
<p>Reforms are costly for both households and businesses. For example, a tax on oil consumption increases the cost of energy for consumers while policies that require businesses to switch to renewable energy impose costs on firms and disrupt fossil fuel company profits. Politicians therefore tend to face strong opposition from both consumers and producers when embarking on energy transitions. </p>
<p>To defuse opposition, we find that governments have two options.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protestors holding banners outside a government building in Brussels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493264/original/file-20221103-22-jvdy76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protest in Brussels over the cost of energy, September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/trade-union-members-shout-wave-banners-2204707727">Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Insulation</h2>
<p>The first is to insulate the policymaking process from voter discontent and business interference. A country’s political institutions shape the extent to which this can be achieved.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/proportional-representation/">Proportional electoral rules</a>, where the distribution of seats corresponds with the proportion of votes for each party, can protect governments from voter backlash. The likelihood that a small change to vote shares will remove a government from power is reduced under this system.</p>
<p>In countries with strong bureaucracies, civil servants enjoy substantial discretion to intervene in the economy to achieve policy goals. Their long-term job security means they face less risk of termination or demotion for upsetting powerful interest groups. This insulates policymaking and can enable governments to enact reform over the wishes of entrenched business opposition.</p>
<p>France’s <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/data/iea-electricity-information-statistics/oecd-net-electrical-capacity_data-00460-en">production of nuclear energy</a> increased 14-fold between 1972 and 1985. Reforms were carried out by a strong and centralised public administration with the authority to implement policy change over the opposition of business and affected communities. The national utility, Electricité de France (EDF), was also owned by the state. This offered the French government additional insulation and granted it control over the direction of the country’s electricity sector.</p>
<p>Although EDF is no longer state owned, the French government holds a majority stake in the company. This allows France to pursue a similar response to the current energy crisis. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for the construction of <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220210-macron-calls-for-14-new-reactors-in-nuclear-renaissance">14 new nuclear reactors</a> earlier this year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close-up of an orange EDF sign against the backdrop of two large cooling towers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493262/original/file-20221103-19-opqn0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Nogent-sur-Seine nuclear power plant, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/nogentsurseine-france-september-1-2020-low-1815319076">olrat/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>2. Compensation</h2>
<p>Governments can also secure support for energy reform by using compensation. Countries with developed welfare states can use existing social policy to soften the impact of energy price increases for households. Governments that enjoy close relationships with business can also negotiate with industry and exchange compensation for their support.</p>
<p>Compensatory bargaining with industry associations and labour unions allowed Germany to transition away from oil in the 1970s. From 1973 to 1985, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.004%20and%20https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/data/iea-electricity-information-statistics/oecd-net-electrical-capacity_data-00460-en">subsidy schemes</a> enabled a 30% increase in coal power and a 13-fold increase in nuclear energy generation. At the same time the government used the welfare system to ease the burden of higher energy costs for households through financial support.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial shot of a power station on the bank of a river, with a plume of smoke rising from the chimney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493299/original/file-20221103-21-van0k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal-fired power station on the banks of the River Rhine, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rhine-river-coalfired-power-station-lower-769841080">riekephotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Germany is again using compensatory strategies as it transitions away from fossil fuels. The country negotiated the <a href="https://www.bmuv.de/en/topics/climate-adaptation/climate-protection/national-climate-policy/translate-to-english-fragen-und-antworten-zum-kohleausstieg-in-deutschland">“coal compromise”</a> between 2018 and 2020. The scheme provides €40 billion (£35 billion) to coal companies and coal mining regions in return for political support for the plan to phase-out coal production by 2038.</p>
<h2>Retreat</h2>
<p>When governments can pursue neither insulation nor compensation, they let markets drive change. </p>
<p>Majoritarian electoral rules, a small welfare state and limited coordination between the state and business have restricted the ability of US governments to pass costly energy reforms.</p>
<p>Attempts to reduce dependence on imported oil during the 1970s – from gasoline taxes to energy efficiency regulations – <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/675589#:%7E:text=In%20November%20of%201970%2C%20President,way%20to%20promote%20unleaded%20gasoline.">withered</a> in the face of political opposition. The case is similar for climate policy. Successive US governments have struggled to pass major reforms, whether it be an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1993/06/11/miscalculations-lobby-effort-doomed-btu-tax-plan/d756dac3-b2d0-46a4-8693-79f6f8f881d2/">energy tax</a> in 1993 or the then US president Barack Obama’s plan to impose <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/19/18684054/climate-change-clean-power-plan-repeal-affordable-emissions">emissions limits on power plants</a> in 2015.</p>
<p>In response to the current energy crisis, the focus has been on markets. The US government has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/15/fist-bumps-as-joe-biden-arrives-to-reset-ties-with-pariah-saudi-arabia?CMP=share_btn_tw">attempted to reduce energy prices</a> by expanding domestic oil production and lobbying Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output.</p>
<p>Yet even countries with a low capacity for insulation or compensation can still pursue energy reform. To do this, policies must not impose visible and direct costs on society. A recent example is the US’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/19/fact-sheet-the-inflation-reduction-act-supports-workers-and-families/">Inflation Reduction Act</a>. Instead of reducing emissions through taxation, penalties or fines, the legislation relies on subsidies for clean technologies funded by general tax revenues. By using carrots and no sticks, many of the political difficulties associated with major energy reforms can be avoided.</p>
<p>Energy transitions are deeply political processes. While the current energy crisis is an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards clean energy, the scale and pace of such change will depend on the capacity of governments to defuse political opposition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192523/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Finnegan's research has received funding from the Balzan Foundation (via Professor Robert Keohane) and the European Union.</span></em></p>The current energy crisis is an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards clean energy – but some countries are better than others at pursuing major energy reform.Jared J. Finnegan, Lecturer in Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1939602022-11-11T11:14:16Z2022-11-11T11:14:16ZAfrica’s largest democracy goes to the polls amid rising insecurity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494398/original/file-20221109-19-edtxbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman casts her ballot at a polling station in Nigeria.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/africas-largest-democracy-goes-to-the-polls-amid-rising-insecurity-193960&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p>Africa’s biggest election will be held in <a href="https://inecnigeria.org/timetable-and-schedule-of-activities-for-2023-general-election/">February 2023 in Nigeria</a>. It’s the seventh successive general election in the country’s 23 years of unbroken democratic government. </p>
<p>The election will be a massive operation. An estimated <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/10/13/yakubu-95-million-nigerians-to-vote-in-176846-polling-units/">95 million</a> registered voters will go to the polls in 176,846 polling units across 774 local government areas. </p>
<p>A total of 12,163 candidates sponsored by 18 political parties are on the ballot. They are up for election into 109 senatorial districts, 360 federal constituencies, 993 state constituencies, 28 governorship positions, and the office of the president.</p>
<p>But there are rising <a href="https://desertherald.com/2023-elections-may-not-hold-in-nigeria-uk/">fears</a> that security crises in the country could undermine the outcome. Nigeria’s security apparatuses seem unable to guarantee safety.</p>
<p>We think there are indeed grounds for concern. Based on our expertise and <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-driving-violence-in-nigerias-north-central-region-163532">previous work</a> on violence in Nigeria, we believe that potent threats to a free, fair and credible election could come from both physical and virtual spaces. </p>
<p>In the physical environment the threat comes from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Boko-Haram">Boko Haram</a> terrorists, bandits, separatists, criminals, militants, armed herdsmen and a host of violent gangs. </p>
<p>In the virtual space, it comes from hacking, misinformation, disinformation, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/13/what-are-deepfakes-and-how-can-you-spot-them">deepfakes</a> and fake news.</p>
<p>Election security is a defining factor of Nigeria’s electoral process. Past elections have been characterised by brazen acts of violence largely perpetrated by political thugs. But the speed, spread and scale with which violence <a href="https://humanglemedia.com/rising-insecurity-causing-schools-to-shut-down-in-nigerias-capital/">has evolved</a> make the 2023 elections particularly concerning. </p>
<p>Recent instances of violence show that the country is in a different and more dangerous security environment. In recent months armed groups have killed or abducted citizens. There have also been targeted attacks on the facilities and security agents connected to the <a href="https://www.inecnigeria.org/">Independent National Electoral Commission</a>. And an unprecedented number of communities are under the partial control of non-state armed groups.</p>
<p>Some desperate politicians, too, may encourage armed groups to cause violence in opposition strongholds as a way of suppressing voter participation.</p>
<iframe title="Nigeria Election 2023" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-fzk8t" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fzk8t/5/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="800" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Deteriorating security situation</h2>
<p>Over the past months, attacks in Nigeria in the physical and virtual domains have increased significantly. At least 7,222 Nigerians were killed and 3,823 abducted as a <a href="https://punchng.com/7222-killed-3823-abducted-in-seven-months-report/">result of</a> 2,840 violent incidents between January and July 2022. </p>
<p>Cybersecurity has also deteriorated. <a href="https://dailytrust.com/why-nigerians-should-be-wary-of-cyber-attacks">Data released</a> in May 2022 showed that Nigeria was one of the worst hit countries in Africa in terms of cyber-attacks. South Africa was the most targeted with 32 million attacks. Nigeria had 16.7 million cyber-attacks. </p>
<p>This is pivotal as the Independent National Electoral Commission plans to use the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System for the upcoming poll. This system and an Election Result Viewing Portal are two technological innovations celebrated for improving the transparency of election results and boosting public trust in the outcomes.</p>
<p>With this in mind, the Independent National Electoral Commission has repeatedly <a href="https://www.channelstv.com/2022/05/13/inec-raises-concern-over-security-ahead-of-2023-polls/">expressed concern</a> over prevailing security challenges ahead of the 2023 elections. </p>
<h2>Armed groups and the 2023 elections</h2>
<p>The actions of armed groups are already affecting core elements of election security. </p>
<p>Since 2017, there have been nine abductions involving electoral commission staff, 20 attacks on election facilities, and 17 incidents of looting and property destruction. Offices and sensitive equipment have been targeted. </p>
<p>The attacks have been concentrated in the south, especially the south-east. (See figure 1). </p>
<p>Since the 2019 election unidentified armed groups have <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/464658-timeline-41-inec-offices-attacked-in-two-years.html">attacked</a> commission offices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493470/original/file-20221104-21-wxness.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attacks on INEC (Staff and Facilities) by Armed Groups, 2017-September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors’ compilation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For instance, on 26 November 2020, Boko Haram members attacked the electoral commission office at Hawul local government in Borno State. </p>
<p>In April 2022, unknown gunmen shot dead a commission official at a voter registration centre in Ihitte Uboma local government area of Imo State. The electoral commission suspended voter registration exercises across 54 centres and in three local government areas in the state.</p>
<p>These attacks portend serious danger to national electoral activities. </p>
<p>Attacks targeting infrastructure could scare away prospective voters, cause significant shortages of electoral officials, compromise logistics, and endanger the supply of electoral materials.</p>
<p>Security forces have also borne the brunt of attacks and killings. For instance, 81 soldiers, 65 police officers, two correctional service officials, two anti-drug law officers, five officers of the civil defence corps and two road safety officials were killed by non-state armed groups between January and June 2022. </p>
<p>The killings were mostly carried out in the north-west, north-central and south-east regions. </p>
<p>Security agents are critical to providing a safe environment during the entire electoral process.</p>
<h2>Security response plan</h2>
<p>The government needs put in place a robust and comprehensive security plan to deal with the risks to a smooth election process.</p>
<p>Security forces must plan for operations involving, for example, ground and air raids against armed groups in their strongholds. There also need for information and psychological operations to tackle the propaganda and disinformation put out by armed groups.</p>
<p>A robust information operation response should be both proactive and reactive. This will help build voter confidence and reduce the appeal or threats of armed groups. </p>
<p>The Department of State Services, in partnership with the Office of the National Security Adviser, should lead and coordinate this response.</p>
<p>Finally, protecting the forthcoming election requires a whole-of-society approach. It also requires the election management body and the nation’s security apparatuses to work closely together. </p>
<p>The country’s inter-agency consultative committee on election security offers a great platform for this to happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of 2023 general elections, there are increasing concerns that the current spate of violence in Nigeria, if unchecked, could undermine electoral outcomes.Freedom C. Onuoha, Professor of Political Science, University of NigeriaOluwole Ojewale, Regional Coordinator, Institute for Security StudiesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1934362022-11-09T02:54:46Z2022-11-09T02:54:46ZMidterms 2022: 4 experts on the effects of voter intimidation laws, widespread mail-in voting – and what makes a winner<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494282/original/file-20221108-22-s7tx84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters cast their ballots in Madison, Wisc., on Nov. 8, 2022, as numerous close races draw to a close.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244617941/photo/americans-head-to-the-polls-to-vote-in-the-2022-midterm-elections.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=YFoUUMeo-Di_QJQT8NphUY-5-HICYkN-w0BBqNT7F00=">Jim Vondruska/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With control of Congress and statehouses at stake, voters across the nation headed to the polls on Election Day 2022. That was after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/07/2022-early-vote-data-democrats/">more than 42 million people</a> had already voted early or by mail. The Conversation asked four scholars to give us their initial observations on the voting, in an election whose outcome may be be determined by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-biden-inflation-cf4dffe87a7c2fd1bdd58df0346e15dc">voters’ concerns about the economy and democracy</a> – and whose full results will take days to know.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white woman with long brown hair appears to pick up a white box that has yellow envelopes inside. Next to her sits a pile of more white boxes with yellow envelopes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494279/original/file-20221108-21-uz7ekl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Becky White, a Mesa County election specialist, lifts a box of ballots cast during the midterm election on Nov. 8, 2022, in Grand Junction, Colo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244617244/photo/us-vote-election-colorado.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=gkk9fyO9C7rQZGlhkvGl0z_BMTrXS0NbuEqjIkWPcVU=">Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What really influences an election</h2>
<p><strong>Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University</strong></p>
<p>When people talk about elections, they frequently focus on how issues and events, as well as candidates’ attributes, affect who wins and loses: “He’s such a wooden speaker!” “She’s soft on crime!” However, the most important factors influencing elections are mostly out of candidates’ control. </p>
<p>Political insiders and scholars call these “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/1962060">the</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2130810">fundamentals</a>”: the state of the economy and the approval rating of the president. Together, they set the stage for everything else that happens in an election. </p>
<p>In 2022, the fundamentals have been running pretty strongly in Republicans’ favor. First, President Joe Biden is a Democrat and pretty unpopular, with <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/">approval ratings in the low 40s</a>. Second, even though the economy is pretty healthy by some measures, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/04/october-unemployment-report-jobs/">with unemployment under 4%</a>, most headlines are <a href="https://apnews.com/cf4dffe87a7c2fd1bdd58df0346e15dc">focused on high inflation</a>. When you combine an unpopular president with a shaky economy, it’s a recipe for the president’s party – this year, the Democrats – to do poorly at the polls. </p>
<p>Even when two candidates of the same party run in the same state and one does better than the other, systematic factors, not their positions or campaign strategies, usually explain the difference. For example, in Georgia, where I live and <a href="https://cas.gsu.edu/profile/jeffrey-lazarus/">teach political science at Georgia State University</a>, Democrats <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Stacey_Abrams">Stacey Abrams</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Raphael_Warnock">Raphael Warnock</a> are running for governor and U.S. senator, respectively. The results aren’t in yet, but <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3724032-heres-where-the-polls-stand-in-some-key-2022-senate-races/">polls point to Warnock</a> doing significantly better in his race <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-stacey-abrams/">than Abrams</a> in hers. Assuming that bears out, what’s the reason behind the difference? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged Black man with glasses holds a black mask that says 'vote' in white. He stands next to a middle aged Black woman with a mask over her mouth that also says vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494309/original/file-20221109-9155-ki7bin.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Raphael Warnock, the Democratic candidate for Georgia’s Senate seat, and Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia, together in November 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1229445356/photo/georgia-senate.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=eZ3h6oVb8Xh_jwjqOawdR8VAVaHUHQNUiMCtuiT_4TU=">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s not because Warnock ran a good campaign and Abrams didn’t. Rather, three factors are helping Warnock but not Abrams, and all three are out of their control. </p>
<p>First, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381614000139">Warnock is an incumbent</a>, while Abrams is a challenger; incumbents fare better than challengers. Second, Warnock’s opponent, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/02/walker-warnock-redemption-evangelicals/">Herschel Walker, is beset by a number of high-profile</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07343469.2020.1788665">scandals</a>; Abrams’ opponent, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Brian_Kemp">Republican Gov. Brian Kemp</a>, has kept clear of any major financial or personal problems. Third, the fact that Abrams is a woman makes a difference; <a href="http://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.9718595">for a number of reasons, women</a> face more difficult electoral environments. Factors like voter stereotypes and increased media scrutiny result in female candidates’ getting about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911401419">3 percentage points</a> less than similar male candidates. </p>
<p>Most of the time, the story lines voters tend to focus on – the issues that are important to us or the candidates we love or hate – have much less influence over the outcomes of elections than many give them credit for. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young Black woman holds a baby on her hip and votes at a shielded voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494277/original/file-20221108-20-errgr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter casts her ballot on Nov. 8, 2022, in Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244610271/photo/us-vote-election.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=iAtAKNKdrgZXtBAG1M9-x5ugFh0KfFhNvnbVbpt3BBA=">Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mail-in voting remained secure, despite concerns</h2>
<p><strong><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TY_5kAMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Mara Suttmann-Lea</a>, Connecticut College; <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9AlVoYcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Thessalia Merivaki</a>, Mississippi State University</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown skinned young woman holds up a ballot and stands amid a crowd of people outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494275/original/file-20221108-15137-g138hf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter displays a ballot when arriving at a voting center in Los Angeles on Nov. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244616830/photo/us-vote-election-california.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=2NyXbdrslje1GF4F7ZyECkMvvPml3-bsxITxgms7F0o=">Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Days before this year’s midterm election, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/07/gop-sues-reject-mail-ballots/">news broke</a> of challenges to thousands of mail-in ballots in state races that may determine control of the U.S. Congress. </p>
<p>In Pennsylvania, <a href="https://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-85-2022pco%20-%20105327594202667240.pdf?cb=1">the state Supreme Court ruled</a> election officials should not count mail ballots missing a date on the outer envelope. And a judge blocked a request from the Republican nominee for secretary of state in Michigan, Kristina Karamo, that <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/judge-kristina-karamo-lacks-shred-evidence-block-detroit-ballots">most absentee ballots</a> be thrown out.</p>
<p>These challenges to mail-in voting are echoes of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voter-suppression-2020">long-simmering election concerns</a> that boiled over during the contentious, COVID-19-tinged 2020 presidential election. The 2022 election cycle featured a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/technology/midterm-elections-misinformation.html">continuation of misinformation</a> about the security of mail-in voting and the integrity of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/07/why-we-wont-know-much-on-election-night/">ballot counts that take several days</a>.</p>
<p>It is true mail ballots are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912921993537">more likely to be rejected</a> because the additional steps voters need to take to cast a ballot create more potential for mistakes. But that is the result of measures that protect against fraud, not evidence of it. Some states like California, Florida and Illinois allow for the “<a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx">preprocessing</a>” of ballots before Election Day to ready the ballot for counting, including verifying voter eligibility. But many states do not allow this process to begin until Election Day, which means counting may last a few days, including in states with key Senate races like Pennsylvania and Georgia. </p>
<p>At least in some states, voters whose mailed ballots are rejected have some time to “<a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-15-states-that-permit-voters-to-correct-signature-discrepancies.aspx">cure</a>” or correct administrative errors in their submissions. This may mean the results of key races cannot be completely counted for some time after the election. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Cure_period_for_absentee_and_mail-in_ballots">many states</a>, however, voters are not given the opportunity to correct errors. That’s true in <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022-09-08-Order.pdf">Wisconsin</a>, where Republicans recently won a court ruling preventing some mail ballots from being counted when the witness address is not complete. And in other states, like <a href="https://www.goerie.com/story/news/politics/elections/state/2022/11/06/mail-in-ballots-pennsylvania-curing-process-midterm-election/69611193007/">Pennsylvania</a>, the legal process for fixing errors is unclear.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/national-voter-education-week/">Our research</a> shows that many problems with mail ballots can be mitigated ahead of time if election officials communicate effectively with their constituents about voting by mail. Voters whose election officials make more efforts to teach people the proper procedure make fewer mistakes that lead to ballot rejection.</p>
<h2>Black and Latino voters undeterred by anticipated Election Day threats</h2>
<p><strong>Bertrall Ross, University of Virginia</strong></p>
<p>For many Black and Latino voters, the 2022 midterm elections have been remarkable for what did not happen. Threats of voter intimidation appeared overblown, and attempts to suppress Black and Latino turnout didn’t seem to work – at least not that we know of as polls closed on Election Day.</p>
<p>Misinformation that targets minority voters is nothing new. But <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/60309566">a rash of new state election laws</a> triggered widespread anxiety among civil rights advocates over the potential consequences for showing up at the polls.</p>
<p>Yet, as in every other election since the adoption of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act#:%7E:text=This%20act%20was%20signed%20into,as%20a%20prerequisite%20to%20voting.">Voting Rights Act of 1965</a>, Black and Latino voters overcame real and perceived efforts to suppress their increasing ability to affect the <a href="https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/">results of local, state and federal elections</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two rows of five Black women sit at long tables, sorting through papers that are in yellow boxes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494280/original/file-20221108-20-qo4mh7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll workers process ballots at an elections warehouse outside of Philadelphia on Nov. 8, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244610615/photo/us-vote-election-pennsylvania.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=q4DnoVs3m2XTD4Jw6FsOZdsZlU0pXDH2QlO-xdhn2Po=">Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In important ways, the 2022 election season has deviated from historic, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/right-to-vote/voting-rights-for-african-americans/">often violent discrimination</a> against minority voters exercising their citizenship rights guaranteed under the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/15th-amendment#:%7E:text=Passed%20by%20Congress%20February%2026,men%20the%20right%20to%20vote">15th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a>. </p>
<p>Instead of the white supremacists of the past striking fear among minority voters, the fear during this 2022 midterms was the possible chaos dozens of new state election laws could create for minority voters. Those new laws were passed as a result of former President Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories that he lost the 2020 election because of widespread fraud. Trump’s widely disproved theories led several states to enact new <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/VOTING-RESTRICTIONS/znvnbdjbkvl/index.html">election laws</a> that many civil rights activists and Democrats argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/georgias-gop-overhauled-the-states-election-laws-in-2021-and-critics-argue-the-target-was-black-voter-turnout-not-election-fraud-192000">were attempts to suppress the minority vote</a>. </p>
<p>The problem with the 2020 presidential election was not widespread fraud, but rather the way some people reacted to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-race-and-ethnicity-virus-outbreak-georgia-7a843bbce00713cfde6c3fdbc2e31eb7">widespread voting by Black and brown Americans for Joe Biden</a>. It was more than coincidental that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group">GOP challenges in 2020 were made in cities</a> with significant numbers of Black and Latino voters, such as Detroit and Philadelphia. </p>
<p>Although it is too early to estimate actual voting turnout numbers, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/12/key-facts-about-black-eligible-voters-in-2022/">Black </a>and Latino voters have cast their ballots regardless of perceived voter suppression laws or intimidation. </p>
<p>In an election in which the threats appeared different from those of the past and the prospects of democratic backsliding greater than ever, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096123/voter-turnout-midterms-by-ethnicity-historical/">Black</a> and <a href="https://naleo.org/COMMS/PRA/2022/2022-Projections-Final.pdf">Latino</a> voters proved their resilience, with turnout numbers expected to match or exceed that of the last midterm election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193436/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thessalia (Lia) Merivaki is a member of the Carter Center's U.S. Elections Expert Study Team. She has received funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) and the Scholars Strategy Network (SSN). She is also affiliated with the Election Community Network (ECN).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mara Suttmann-Lea receives funding from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, and is also affiliated with the Election Community Network (ECN).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bertrall Ross and Jeffrey Lazarus do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some election results will take days or longer to materialize – but on election night, a panel of scholars offer initial takeaways on mail-in voting, how to win an election and voter suppression.Thessalia Merivaki, Assistant Professor of American Politics, Mississippi State UniversityBertrall Ross, Justice Thurgood Marshall Distinguished Professor of Law, University of VirginiaJeffrey Lazarus, Professor American Politics, Political Science, Georgia State UniversityMara Suttmann-Lea, Assistant Professor of Government, Connecticut CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929172022-10-27T12:27:11Z2022-10-27T12:27:11ZCrime is on the ballot – and voters are choosing whether prosecutors with reform agendas are the ones who can best bring law, order and justice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491754/original/file-20221025-14-uxa41k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New York police respond to a shooting in Brooklyn in April 2021, amid a rise in shootings that year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/officers-respond-to-the-scene-of-a-shooting-that-left-multiple-people-picture-id1311166076?s=612x612">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Different approaches to justice are on the ballot in November 2022 in some <a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2022-general-election-cheat-sheet/">public prosecutor and Congressional elections</a> around the country, revealing a deep divide about how differently Americans feel about crime and its consequences. </p>
<p>Many Republican Congressional and prosecutor candidates are focusing their electoral messages on crime, accusing Democrats of being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/republicans-crime-midterms.html">“dangerously liberal”</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/republicans-say-crime-is-on-the-rise-what-is-the-crime-rate-and-what-does-it-mean-192900">amid a seeming rise</a> of crime in some places. </p>
<p>They are also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/republicans-crime-midterms.html">saying that</a> policies backed by Democrats <a href="https://www.vera.org/state-of-justice-reform/2019/bail-reform">like bail reform</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/nyregion/nassau-da-kaminsky-donnelly.html">threaten public safety</a>. Bail reform allows people who have been charged with a misdemeanor or a nonviolent felony to remain free pending the outcome of their cases, avoiding the scenario where people are held in jail because they are too poor to pay even modest amounts of bail. </p>
<p>The Republican message likely resonates with some voters. </p>
<p>An October 2022 <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/05/midterm-voters-crime-guns-00060393">Politico poll</a> showed that voters rank crime as a top area of concern, trailing only the economy and abortion. </p>
<p>Democrats, meanwhile, have responded by <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/23/congress-bipartisan-gun-package-00041701">supporting gun safety proposals</a> and pointing to House of Representative bills that they supported and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/us/politics/house-passes-police-funding-bills.html">passed in September 2022</a>, giving more money to local police departments. In other cases, Democrat candidates have largely avoided the topic of crime altogether, and instead have kept their focus on other <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/03/democrats-congress-house-majority-abortion-00059929">key issues like abortion.</a> </p>
<p>Against this backdrop, some local prosecutors running for election are arguing that public safety and new ways of thinking about incarceration can go hand in hand. </p>
<p>As a scholar who <a href="https://jessicahenryjustice.com/">writes</a> and <a href="https://www.montclair.edu/profilepages/view_profile.php?username=henryj">teaches</a> about criminal justice and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Smoke-but-No-Fire-Convicting/dp/0520300645">wrongful convictions</a>, I know that top prosecutors have tremendous power when deciding how justice is meted out – what crimes to charge, which people to bring charges against, and how cases are prosecuted. </p>
<p>How they choose to wield that control has significant consequences for poor people, communities of color, victims of crimes and society at large. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Latino middle aged man wearing a blue suit stands in a modern looking room, with big glass windows, and looks to his left, with his hands in his pockets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491758/original/file-20221025-11-f0xhgf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jose Garza, district attorney of Travis County, Texas, is one of the progressive prosecutors elected in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/district-attorney-jose-garza-in-austin-tx-on-thursday-november-18-picture-id1240972549?s=612x612">Spencer Selvidge for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new way of thinking about justice</h2>
<p>Public prosecutors are government officials who are tasked with investigating and prosecuting crimes. They operate at different levels of government, ranging from state attorneys general – the highest law enforcement officer in state government – to county attorneys. </p>
<p>Prosecutors have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-02/once-tough-on-crime-prosecutors-now-push-progressive-reforms">traditionally positioned themselves</a> as tough on crime, and measure their success by the number and severity of convictions they oversee. </p>
<p>But after the Black Lives Matter movement intensified around 2016, nontraditional candidates, sometimes called <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/records/8469-progressive-prosecutors">progressive prosecutors</a>, <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Progressive-DAs-form-new-alliance-to-combat-15569007.php">began running</a> in local elections – and winning office. This followed growing public awareness about law enforcement’s treatment of people of color, and their <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/30/shrinking-gap-between-number-of-blacks-and-whites-in-prison/">disproportionate representation</a> in prisons. </p>
<p>There are roughly <a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/prosecutors-and-sheriffs-in-2022/">1,200 public prosecutor races</a> on the ballot in November 2022, including <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attorney_General_elections,_2022">30 state</a> races for attorney general. </p>
<p><a href="https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2022-general-election-cheat-sheet/">Only 20 or so contested races</a> now involve prosecutors with notable reform agendas – though other reform-oriented local prosecutors <a href="https://boltsmag.org/shelby-county-ousts-da-and-judge-mulroy-weirich-sugarmon-michael/">were elected</a> <a href="https://vtdigger.org/2022/08/09/sarah-george-wins-democratic-primary-for-chittenden-county-states-attorney-fending-off-police-backed-challenger/">earlier in 2022</a> and still others are not up for reelection this term. </p>
<p>Many of these <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e319ff2fd340d698bc16f1e/t/615cba23c3925a713bd80264/1633466937856/Report_21st_century_prosecutor.pdf">change-oriented prosecutors</a> say they want to incarcerate fewer people. </p>
<p>Many of them have also pledged not to prosecute low-level misdemeanor offenses, like drug possession or trespassing. <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/misdemeanor-system-reinforces-economic-inequality">These kinds of charges disproportionately</a>, and often unnecessarily, affect people of color and the poor, resulting in lasting criminal records.</p>
<p>These prosecutors believe they can change the system from within, improving the overall fairness of the United States’ criminal legal system, while keeping the community safe.</p>
<p>Counties and local districts in Republican-leaning states like <a href="https://www.traviscountytx.gov/district-attorney/our-office/meet-the-da">Texas</a>, <a href="https://www.wycokck.org/Government/Elected-Officials/District-Attorney-Biography">Kansas</a> and <a href="https://www.portsmouthcwa.com/">Virginia</a> all elected reform-minded prosecutors over the last few years. In the last decade, voters in major cities <a href="https://www.chicagoappleseed.org/2022/09/16/report-progressive-prosecutor-promises/">like Chicago</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/5/23384868/philadelphia-progressive-prosecutor-midterms-larry-krasner-impeachment-pennsylvania">and Philadelphia</a> also elected prosecutors with new visions for justice. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white door says 'Ring bell for bail bonds,' in red font." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491757/original/file-20221025-15802-6ysc7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign in Los Angeles advertises bail bonds in 2019, when California became the first state to abolish bail in most cases for suspects who cannot afford it and are awaiting trial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/sign-advertises-a-bail-bond-company-on-august-29-2018-in-los-angeles-picture-id1025093174?s=612x612">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An uneven reception</h2>
<p>Aside from not seeking <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-02/once-tough-on-crime-prosecutors-now-push-progressive-reforms">cash bail</a> for most low-level cases, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/5/23384868/philadelphia-progressive-prosecutor-midterms-larry-krasner-impeachment-pennsylvania">some progressive prosecutors</a> have also stopped prosecuting marijuana possession and most prostitution cases against sex workers. </p>
<p>This new style of prosecutor, however, has also <a href="https://www.abajournal.com/web/article/progressive-prosecutor-pushback">experienced backlash</a> at the polls. Critics argue that progressive prosecutors are bad for public safety, suggesting that <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/why-homicide-rates-spiked-30-during-the-pandemic-/6420391.html">rises in crime</a> since the pandemic are partially because of their reform policies. </p>
<p>But a 2021 study found “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3952764">no significant effects of these reforms on local crime rates</a>.” </p>
<p>One of the authors of that study argues that <a href="https://time.com/6045637/not-prosecuting-misdemeanors-reduce-crime/">refusing to prosecute nonviolent misdemeanor offenses</a> may actually reduce crime. Not prosecuting certain crimes can help people avoid a criminal record, which, in turn, can help them find stable housing and work. </p>
<p>Another October 2022 <a href="https://munkschool.utoronto.ca/gjl/violent-crime-and-public-prosecution-report/">study found</a> found no connection between progressive crime policies and increased homicide rates, either during the pandemic or before 2022.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the complexity of crime data, attacks on reformist prosecutors have gained momentum. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/us/politics/chesa-boudin-recall-san-francisco.html">Chesa Boudin</a>, a former public defender who was first elected San Francisco’s top prosecutor in 2020,, lost his position in a 2022 recall election amid criticism that his policies led to <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-crime-rates-17487348.php">a spike in crime</a>.</p>
<p>In July 2022, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-07-22/baltimore-prosecutor-marilyn-mosby-defeated-in-primary">Marilyn Mosby</a> lost her bid to retain her Baltimore prosecutor post in the Maryland Democratic primary. And Manhattan District Attorney <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ID4v_NheKo">Alvin Bragg</a> continues to face criticism because of his support for bail reform in New York, where he led the effort that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/new-york-democrats-bail-reform-00052207">banned cash bail</a> in most cases in 2019.</p>
<p>These prosecutors have been accused of releasing alleged criminal offenders from jail before a trial – who then <a href="https://www.thecity.nyc/2022/2/21/22944871/new-york-bail-reform-controversy-eric-adams">go on to commit</a> new crimes.</p>
<p>Yet, while there are people who committed crimes after being released from pretrial detention, <a href="https://review.law.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/02/69-Stan-L-Rev-711.pdf">research shows</a> that, in practice, reducing the use of cash bail has little to no effect on the percentage of people rearrested for criminal behavior. </p>
<h2>Common ground</h2>
<p><a href="http://gppreview.com/2021/03/03/public-opinion-death-penalty-republicans-democrats-agree-disagree/">Research also</a> shows that people of both major political parties are concerned about wrongful convictions, which are estimated to constitute about <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1306417111">4% of all convictions</a>.</p>
<p>I believe change-oriented prosecutors make a difference in wrongful conviction cases. There are approximately <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/?tid=27&ty=tp">2,300 prosecutor offices</a> in the country, and only around 100 <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/Conviction-Integrity-Units.aspx">Conviction Integrity Units</a> specifically devoted to re-investigating cases for potential errors. </p>
<p>Yet, nearly <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents/Race%20Report%20Preview.pdf">one out of three exonerations between 2015 and 2022</a> were obtained with the help of a Conviction Integrity Unit. In these cases, prosecutors looked retrospectively at convictions their offices had obtained and then worked to reverse false convictions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Pages/Conviction-Integrity-Units.aspx">effectiveness of these special units varies dramatically</a>, often reflecting the head prosecutor’s commitment to righting past wrongs.</p>
<p>When a prosecutor is willing to say that they made a mistake, that’s one step toward creating a more fair and legitimate system for all.</p>
<p>It also helps to free the innocent. </p>
<p>Recently, Adnan Syed, subject of the popular <a href="https://serialpodcast.org/">Serial podcast</a>, was freed after decades in prison for a 1999 murder of his ex-girlfriend <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/10/11/adnan-syed-charges-dropped-serial-podcast/10465862002/">that prosecutors now say he did not commit</a>. A <a href="https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/progressive-prosecutors-make-a-difference-for-the-innocent-db3a523f6dc8">reform-minded prosecutor in Baltimore County</a> helped lead a new investigation that found a lack of DNA evidence pinning Syed to the murder, leading to his release. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a blue pant suit and white shirt stands at a podium outside, facing a row of microphones at what appears to be a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491755/original/file-20221025-20-wr5xli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Erica Suter, director of the Innocence Project and Adnan Syed’s attorney, speaks on Sept. 19, 2022, when Syed’s murder conviction was overturned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/erica-suter-dierctor-of-the-innocence-project-clinic-at-the-of-of-picture-id1243370842?s=612x612">Charlotte Plantive/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Different ways forward</h2>
<p>Crime has been an effective platform for Republican candidates in the past, and they have placed it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/11/politics/crime-republican-messaging">front and center</a> in the final weeks leading up to the midterm elections in 2022. While many Democratic district attorneys and attorneys general take a more traditional approach to crime in their election campaigns, others promise a new approach to crime and justice. </p>
<p>Voters across the country are being presented with different visions of how to maintain public safety. Contested prosecutor elections are a referendum on those competing visions of justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica S. Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new wave of prosecutors, known as progressives, say that public safety can exist with policies like eliminating cash bail for people charged with low-level offenses.Jessica S. Henry, Associate Professor, Department of Justice Studies, Montclair State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1903152022-10-11T12:17:32Z2022-10-11T12:17:32ZYoung immigrants are looking to social media to engage in politics and elections – even if they are not eligible to vote<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488360/original/file-20221005-23-lqzury.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Immigrant advocates protest near the U.S. Capitol on June 15, 2022 </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/immigration-advocates-rally-to-urge-congress-to-pass-permanent-for-picture-id1241326933">Drew Angerer/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Immigrants’ political power is on the rise in the United States. </p>
<p>The number of eligible immigrant voters nearly doubled from about 12 million in 2000 to more than <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/02/26/naturalized-citizens-make-up-record-one-in-ten-u-s-eligible-voters-in-2020/">23 million</a> in 2020. </p>
<p>Immigrant voters <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/02/26/u-s-immigrants-are-rising-in-number-but-just-half-are-eligible-to-vote/">tend to be older</a> than U.S.-born voters, but immigrants ages 18 to 37 still made up 20% of all immigrant voters in 2020.</p>
<p>We are a team of scholars and students across disciplines and universities researching immigrant youths’ civic development – and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118x221103890">we think it’s</a> important to recognize that young immigrants are also playing a key role in galvanizing older immigrants to vote, primarily by connecting with them via social media. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118x221103890">Our research</a> shows that online sites and apps like Twitter are key for young immigrants – both people who were born outside of the U.S. and those who are second-generation immigrants – as ways to engage in politics. Many young immigrants use social media to follow news in their local communities, as well as in their countries of origin. They also use it to organize protests and encourage others to vote.</p>
<p>This is true even when these young people are not eligible to vote because of their immigration status. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A screenshot from a social made page shows a young female user who posted the words, 'A vote for Trump is a vote against my family, my friends, health care, LGBTQ plus people, people of color, undocumented immigrants, the poor, climate, etc. Vote for Biden friends. Vote trump out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=172&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=172&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484724/original/file-20220914-9055-moa09n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=172&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young immigrants have been found to use social media to galvanize others in their community to vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sara Wilf, Elena Maker Castro and Tania Quiles.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A key issue</h2>
<p>Immigration is a core issue for many voters in the upcoming midterm elections. An August 2022 <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/23/midterm-election-preferences-voter-engagement-views-of-campaign-issues/">Pew Research poll</a> found that nearly 50% of registered voters reported immigration was “very important” to them in the November 2022 election.</p>
<p>Some Republican politicians, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and others who are also up for re-election, have focused on immigration in their <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/politics/desantis-gop-base-migrants-massachusetts/index.html">campaigns</a> by pointing to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/number-migrants-crossing-border-hits-another-record-surges-migration-n-rcna34030">record numbers</a> of migrants crossing the U.S. border. Republican politicians have also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/us/desantis-florida-migrants-marthas-vineyard.html">relocated thousands</a> of migrants to liberal places like Washington, D.C., New York and Massachusetts over the past several months.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-sends-immigration-bill-to-congress-as-part-of-his-commitment-to-modernize-our-immigration-system/">plan to revamp</a> the country’s immigration system and provide a path for about 11 million undocumented residents to gain citizenship, meanwhile, remains <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1177/text">stalled in Congress</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past several years, though, young immigrants – people ages 18 to 23 who were born in other countries, or whose parents were – have helped lead national movements to provide a conditional path to citizenship for young undocumented immigrants, resulting in the 2021 passage of the <a href="https://iamerica.org/daca#final%20daca%20rule">DREAM Act</a>. This policy <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/dream-act-overview">gives millions</a> of undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children the right to stay in the country. </p>
<p>The DREAMer movement <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/cd.311">relied heavily</a> on social media to spread information and encourage people to take action. Based on immigrant youths’ prior successes mobilizing their communities for political change, we believe that their online political engagement could have implications for the 2022 midterms.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1323706101217415168"}"></div></p>
<h2>Mobilizing others</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118x221103890">research study</a> in 2020 explored how immigrant youth ages 18 to 23 used social media to participate in politics. We took 2,300 screenshots of political tweets from January through November 2020, drawing from a sample of 32 young immigrants’ public Twitter feeds that we found through national immigrant youth networks, like <a href="https://unitedwedream.org">United We Dream</a>. </p>
<p>Based on the content of their Twitter profiles and posts, we were confident that they were all actual immigrant youth residing in the U.S. We then contacted all of them through Twitter about the study, and the majority confirmed their age and immigrant status. We went on to analyze the screenshots to identify trends in how youth were politically engaged online. </p>
<p>We also conducted interviews with 11 people from the sample, further confirming that we had recruited youth whose Twitter profiles accurately represented their real identities. Several indicated either in their Twitter profiles and tweets or in the interviews that they were not eligible to vote due to their documentation status.</p>
<p>We found that young immigrants use Twitter to educate their followers about political issues and processes in the U.S. and abroad – and to share both online and in-person opportunities to protest or vote.</p>
<p>These young people appeared to intentionally target their ethnic and regional communities in their social media outreach. </p>
<p>For example, some youth <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118x221103890">in our June 2022 study</a> called on their followers to translate educational resources on racial justice into different languages to share with their families. </p>
<p>Others provided voter registration guides in multiple languages, alerted followers about political candidates who shared an ethnic or regional identity, or encouraged particular ethnic communities – such as South Asians – to vote. </p>
<p>In interviews, youth also described bringing political conversations from their phones to the dinner table and discussing news they had read online with their parents. </p>
<p>Some participants also shared that they posted on social media with the explicit intention of shifting their family members’ political views. </p>
<p>One person we interviewed in 2020 who had ancestry in the Philippines and Belize noted that he “realized the importance of educating people and having those difficult conversations,” particularly with his family and friends. </p>
<p>Valeria, a college senior originally from Puerto Rico, also explained how Facebook was “the family social media platform” where she raised awareness about political issues. </p>
<p>“The way that I kind of look at it is at least I’m planting a seed, right? I’m planting an idea, at least I’m helping others, at least hear what’s going on,” said Valeria, who also asked to use a pseudonym, in a 2020 interview with our team that was featured in the 2022 study.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A screenshot from a social media page shows a user named Amit Jani encouraging voters who are Asian or Pacifc Islanders to attend an online call for Joe Biden's election" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484723/original/file-20220914-11002-48cwta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot from the authors’ study shows a Tweet from a young immigrant in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sara Wilf, Elena Maker Castro and Tania Quiles</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From online to offline engagement</h2>
<p>Immigrant youths’ online political engagement reflects larger trends in the U.S. </p>
<p>Approximately 46% of U.S. teens today use the internet “almost constantly,” <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2022/08/10/teens-social-media-and-technology-2022/">compared with</a> just 24% who said the same in 2014. </p>
<p>Alongside this surge in internet use, more young people are using social media to educate others about social and political topics, hold politicians accountable and provide their followers with opportunities to take action through climate and political movements like <a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org">Fridays for Future</a> and <a href="https://blacklivesmatter.com">Black Lives Matter</a>.</p>
<p>Online political engagement has important consequences for offline political behaviors. </p>
<p>Indeed, nearly a quarter of U.S. adults report that they have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/15/23-of-users-in-us-say-social-media-led-them-to-change-views-on-issue-some-cite-black-lives-matter/">changed their views</a> on a political issue because of social media. Online political engagement has also been shown to result in more young people participating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118x.2013.871318">in protests</a> and encouraging people <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w28849">to vote</a>. </p>
<p>Our findings align with <a href="https://www.amacad.org/sites/default/files/publication/downloads/Democratic-Citizenship_Immigrants-Civic-Political-Engagement.pdf">prior research</a> showing that immigrant youth are politically educating and mobilizing their families and community members. </p>
<p>A survey of people who were allowed to stay in the U.S. because of the DREAM Act prior to the 2020 elections found that <a href="https://unitedwedream.org/resources/amid-changes-to-the-daca-program-and-covid-19-daca-recipients-are-fired-up-and-civically-engaged/">nearly 95%</a> of them were planning to encourage family and friends to vote. </p>
<p>Immigrant youths’ online political engagement has several potential implications for the 2022 midterm elections. </p>
<p>First, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118x221103890">our 2022 study</a> found, immigrant youth are using social media to influence their parents’ opinions on political issues like racial justice and teach them how to register to vote. </p>
<p>Because of the large impact immigrant voters may have on the 2022 midterms, <a href="https://www.azmirror.com/blog/new-voter-bloc-of-naturalized-citizens-might-swing-arizona-midterms/">particularly in swing states</a>, immigrant youths’ online political engagement could play a role in shaping the elections’ outcome. </p>
<p><em>Ph.D. students <a href="https://luskin.ucla.edu/person/bethany-murray">Bethany Murray</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=E9L2f3AAAAAJ&hl=en">J. Abigail Saavedra</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Lamont-Bryant">Lamont Bryant</a>, as well as three undergraduate students, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Kedar-Garzon-Gupta-2229185643">Kedar Garzón Gupta</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaime-garcia-0a1893196/?trk=public_profile_browsemap_profile-result-card_result-card_full-click">Jaime Garcia</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/aditir19/">Aditi Rudra</a>, and UCLA Professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xA4XsTcAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Laura Wray-Lake</a> are all members of the team that carried out research for the study highlighted in this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Wilf receives funding from the UCLA Bedari Kindness Institute for a research study related to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elena Maker Castro receives funding from the UCLA Bedari Kindness Institute for a research study related to this article. Elena also receives funding from the National Institute of Minority Health and Health Disparities to support her graduate research career. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Taina B Quiles receives funding from the Ford Foundation to support her graduate research career. </span></em></p>The number of immigrant voters is on the rise – and research shows that for young immigrants, social media is where they are primarily wading into politics.Sara Wilf, PhD student in social welfare, University of California, Los AngelesElena Maker Castro, Doctoral Candidate, University of California, Los AngelesTaina Quiles, PhD candidate, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1903982022-09-22T15:41:00Z2022-09-22T15:41:00ZName-calling in politics grabs headlines, but voters don’t like it – and it could backfire in the 2022 midterm elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485981/original/file-20220921-7502-ydx3fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A voter and her child cast a ballot during the midterm primary elections in Virginia in June 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/voter-casts-her-ballot-with-her-child-at-a-polling-station-at-rose-picture-id1404219726">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Spending on political advertising is setting records in the midterm elections. But evidence shows that negative messages might discourage voters from casting ballots altogether. </p>
<p>As the 2022 midterms get closer, political attacks in campaign advertisements are on the rise. </p>
<p>In November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-gosar-trump-ocasio-cortez/2021/11/08/ead37b36-40ca-11ec-9ea7-3eb2406a2e24_story.html">Rep. Paul Gosar shared an anime cartoon video</a> showing him physically attacking Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, and President Joe Biden. </p>
<p>That same month, Rep. Ilhan Omar called her Republican colleague Rep. Lauren Boebert <a href="https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1464037767005057024">a buffoon and a bigot</a> on Twitter. Even the official White House Twitter account has gotten in on the politically divisive action, making <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/white-house-twitter-ppp-loans.html">recent headlines</a> when it snapped back in August 2022 at several Republican members of Congress who criticized the <a href="https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program">Paycheck Protection Program</a> – after they themselves had their loans forgiven. </p>
<p>Uncivil messages by politicians have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221083811">become more and more common</a> in the last decade. Political attacks are now a regular occurrence in an increasingly polarized political environment, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/718979">encouraging voters to get mad and plan to vote</a> ahead of Election Day in November. </p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean these kinds of advertisements and personal attacks actually work. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vFCS00oAAAAJ&hl=en">I study political marketing</a> and, as a former campaign manager and political consultant, have seen politicians use uncivil strategies firsthand with the hopes of getting themselves elected. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11129-021-09246-x">My research</a> on political advertising suggests that highly polarized communications could be losing their persuasive power and can even backfire in the upcoming midterms, hurting a candidate’s chances.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1457865685464276997"}"></div></p>
<h2>The impacts of political attack ads</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2020.1260">My research</a> shows that political ads and language do indeed put people in a negative mood. Even simply asking voters to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9431-7">think about politics</a> is enough to get them angry. This negativity is amplified if an ad <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/523287">specifically attacks</a> an opposing candidate. </p>
<p>There is also evidence that this anger carries over to voting behavior. Data from U.S. elections from 2000 to 2012 shows that negative political TV commercials make people less likely to vote for the attacked politician, but also make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2017.1079">people less</a> likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4347">vote in general</a>.</p>
<p>Politicians tend to use <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000696">less negative, polarizing advertising</a> on social media compared to their advertising on television, however. This might be because social media attracts a smaller, more targeted audience, and perhaps candidates fear that these kinds of tactics could demobilize supporters.</p>
<h2>The rise of polarization</h2>
<p>There are a few factors that help explain why political campaigns and attacks on opponents have become more toxic in recent years.</p>
<p>First off, voters are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/718979">more emotional and angrier</a> than ever before. This emotion about politics has been linked to the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/249098/americans-stress-worry-anger-intensified-2018.aspx">normalcy of anger in our day-to-day lives</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/718979">increased political competition</a> – for example, close presidential elections. </p>
<p>Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/718979">interacting less and less</a>. This social polarization comes as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs038">political identity is more important to voters</a> than ever before. Being a Democrat or a Republican is a core part of who the voter is and shapes both their political decisions – like whom they vote for – as well as their nonpolitical ones, like whom they hang out with. </p>
<p>Given these factors, conversations about politics are increasingly happening among people who already agree on political issues.</p>
<p>Politicians like former President <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/19/upshot/trump-complete-insult-list.html">Donald Trump</a> and others seem to be leveraging the fact that they are preaching to the choir, so to speak, and are using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221083811">more and more polarized language</a> to attack the other side. </p>
<p>Whether language is polarized or not is a subjective question, but my research and the work of others has focused on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2020.1260">how negative a political message is</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11129-021-09246-x">how extreme the message is</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Women and men stand together with protest signs that say 'Make America Great Again' and 'Lock her up' at a Trump rally." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485976/original/file-20220921-15425-ddwz1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump and his supporters were known during the 2016 campaign for chanting ‘Lock her up!’ in reference to Hillary Clinton.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/view-of-supporters-with-signs-as-they-attend-donald-trumps-campaign-picture-id684958638">David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The declining power of polarized messaging</h2>
<p>There is some evidence that voters may be getting tired of negative political communications flooding their screens. </p>
<p>Using data from the 2016 U.S. presidential election, my collaborators and I found that political ad messages that are more polarized <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11129-021-09246-x">hurt candidates in the polls and lead voters to talk less about the candidate</a>. </p>
<p>Specifically, we find that voters prefer more centrist and more consistent messaging in political ads, at least in the contexts of recent presidential elections. This research used text analysis methods, which allowed us to score each ad for how polarized the messaging was as well as how consistent the messaging was for the candidate. </p>
<p>Polarized messages particularly hurt a candidate’s election chances if they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11129-021-09246-x">off-brand for the candidate</a> – that is, for politicians who are typically moderate, and then try to go extreme.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white man in a red hat appears to be arguing with a young black man in a crowded scene that looks like a protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485971/original/file-20220921-18-o1ccv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A protester and a supporter of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh argue before his confirmation in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/protester-and-a-supporter-of-us-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaugh-picture-id1045620576">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead to the 2022 midterms</h2>
<p>There’s a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-at-stake-2022-midterm-elections/">lot at stake</a> in the upcoming midterm elections in November 2022, as every House seat and about one-third of the Senate seats are up for grabs. A record-setting <a href="https://adimpact.com/2022-political-spending-projections/">US$8.9 billion</a> in political ad spending is expected for this midterm election season. </p>
<p>If the dominant tone of this messaging is toxic, political campaigns run the risk of disengaging more and more voters. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11129-021-09246-x">My research</a> shows that there are emerging consequences of polarized communications that can hurt candidates in the polls. These insights may encourage political campaigns to test different ad strategies this midterm, perhaps curbing the negativity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beth L. Fossen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A record amount is being spent on political advertising in the midterm elections. But evidence shows that negative ads might work counteractively, discouraging voters from casting ballots altogether.Beth L. Fossen, Assistant Professor of Marketing Kelley School of Business, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1808452022-05-02T14:55:33Z2022-05-02T14:55:33ZWhy Doug Ford will once again win the Ontario election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460642/original/file-20220501-16-1kj7yo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C38%2C5184%2C3282&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford is seen before his government delivered the provincial 2022 budget at the Ontario legislature.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-doug-ford-will-once-again-win-the-ontario-election" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>On June 2, Ontario residents head to the polls to elect a provincial government. The most likely outcome is <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/04/27/will-doug-ford-be-re-elected-the-stars-online-poll-of-polls-tracks-ontarios-election-race.html">that Doug Ford will be re-elected premier of the province and his Progressive Conservative party will win the most seats</a>. </p>
<p>Some people in the province will be frustrated or puzzled by such an outcome, especially in light of the hardships so many Ontarians have endured over the last few years during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>The Ford government, after all, has largely failed in terms of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-government-court-cases-lost-doug-ford-1.6168318">legislative achievements</a>, <a href="https://nowtoronto.com/news/doug-fords-big-covid-fail">protecting citizens from COVID-19</a>, shielding <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldberg-ford-fails-to-deliver-for-ontarians-yet-again">people and small businesses from the economic stress of the pandemic</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-flip-flops-a-dangerous-failure-of-risk-communication-in-covid-19-third-wave-159193">basic responsible leadership</a>. So why will so many people vote for Ford and his team again?</p>
<p>Some political scientists and campaign strategists often tend to misunderstand elections. Politicians like Ford don’t. This explains why he’ll win again.</p>
<h2>No platform? No problem!</h2>
<p>Let’s first consider the role of party platforms: In 2018, when Ford first ran for premier, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-pcs-platform-cost-fiscal-1.4684590">the Progressive Conservatives didn’t bother to release a detailed party platform</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, the party didn’t have any major legislative goals in mind. Its one major claim was that <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4212454/ontario-election-cost-doug-ford-promises/">government was wasteful and Ford intended to curtail spending</a>. This is a fairly innocuous and oft-repeated conservative mantra. But even without a detailed party platform of any sort, the Conservatives swept into power.</p>
<p>It was a brilliant and audacious strategy for Ford to deploy. What lessons did the Liberals and NDP learn from that election? None.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/pharmacare-tax-freeze-and-health-care-spending-feature-in-ontario-ndp-platform-1.5874657">NDP recently published its 95-page party platform</a>, with details on rent control, <a href="https://www.ontariondp.ca/pharmacareforeveryone">universal pharmacare</a> and money for support workers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blonde woman in a blue jacket speaks into a microphone with a Working for You sign behind her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460639/original/file-20220501-22-n6dwga.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath delivers her Ontario provincial election campaign platform in Toronto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The timing and the hoopla about its release six weeks before the election indicated just how important the NDP thinks its platform is to the election. But anyone able to wade through that document is likely a policy wonk or someone already voting NDP. It’s not a document designed to persuade. </p>
<p>If a politician or a political party believes voters cast ballots in favour of policy positions laid out in a party platform, then they badly misunderstand persuasion and what it takes to motivate a voter. </p>
<p>All of the resources that the NDP and the Liberal Party pour into the details and the rationales of their policy positions are misguided if the assumption is that these platforms will result in votes. Clearly these political parties spend resources — time, money and talent — devising their policy initiatives, but elections are not really about policy positions.</p>
<p>What, then, does motivate people to cast a vote for a candidate? </p>
<h2>How do candidates make people feel?</h2>
<p>The first and perhaps most important point is that elections are communication challenges, and communication is not a rational <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-O-fV5qT-0">process of information transmission</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, if politicians think they’re good communicators because they’re deftly able to convey accurate information about policy positions, then those politicians are likely terrible at communication. </p>
<p>We see this when candidates tweet out their policy positions and remind voters during debates or when door-knocking that they favour affordable housing — or whatever policy position they think will appeal to specific voters. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1518622191155388416"}"></div></p>
<p>They should stop doing that. Communication is a process of producing an impact on others, not transmitting information on policy goals. </p>
<p>This is the first question political parties need to ask heading into any election campaign: How does their candidate make people feel? And how does the party affiliation of that person influence how people feel about that candidate? These questions get us closer to an explanation of what motivates people to vote. </p>
<p>Persuasion is a strategic art of communication that leverages emotions for motivation. <a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/psychology/somatic-marker-hypothesis">What’s known as the somatic marker hypothesis</a> teaches us that our reasoning is always biased by our emotions, something <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle-rhetoric/">Greek philosopher Aristotle knew 2,500 years ago when he penned <em>The Rhetoric</em>, his masterpiece on persuasion</a>. </p>
<p>How we feel about New Democrat Andrea Horwath or Liberal Steven Del Duca will influence what we think about their positions, and how we feel about their parties will bias how we feel about them as candidates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bald man speaks into a microphone at a podium with a sign that reads Making Meals Cheaper in front of a restaurant called Frank's." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460641/original/file-20220501-24-jnqxs2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca announces a plan to remove the harmonized sales tax from prepared foods under $20 in Vaughan, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Yader Guzman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Identity, clear narratives</h2>
<p>People also tend to vote according to their group identities. Identity is the second biasing filter for decision-making in elections. The process of “identification” is the communication challenge of making people feel as if they have something in common. </p>
<p>Famed rhetorical theorist <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00335636009382421">Kenneth Burke claimed that “persuasion is identification.”</a> </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bald man in a blue jacket and shirt sips on a beer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460799/original/file-20220502-16-idepgb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole sips a beer while campaigning at a local craft beer brewery in New Brunswick in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ford is arguably better at this than his rivals for premier, Horwath and Del Duca, but there are many high-profile examples of politicians who have tried and failed to make voters feel like they identify with them. Most recently, the advertisements for former federal Conservative leader Erin O'Toole come to mind, when the party tried to portray him <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOXkGDpVCxo">as a kind of hard-working everyman</a>. </p>
<p>Elections are also about values, stories and rhetorical framing. Conservatives around the world often say they <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/hendrik-hertzberg/values-liberal-and-conservative">value freedom</a> and have created narratives about how governments infringe upon freedom and are wasteful. Their policy positions, when they do have them, tend to manifest or make clear their commitment to the value of freedom. </p>
<p>Ontario’s left-leaning parties lack any similar, larger narrative. They don’t clearly champion a coherent and inspiring set of values, and they don’t make us feel hopeful about the future. </p>
<p>That’s why they’re going to lose again, even though their policy positions would likely do a lot of good for a lot of people in the province of Ontario.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Danisch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ontario goes to the polls in a month, and Doug Ford will likely win again. Why? Because the Liberal and NDP leaders have failed to connect with the people of Ontario the way Ford has.Robert Danisch, Professor, Department of Communication Arts, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1807342022-04-08T14:30:38Z2022-04-08T14:30:38ZTo vote or not to vote? The reasons people vote or abstain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456978/original/file-20220407-12485-nx4z86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C2178&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People leave a polling station after voting on federal election day in Montreal on Sept. 20, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: This story is part of series that also includes live interviews with some of Canada’s top social sciences and humanities academics.</em> </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In Conversation With André Blais (SSHRC-CRSH)</span></figcaption>
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<p>As a political scientist, I see my role as answering — in the most rigorous way possible — questions that have been formulated as clearly as possible.
One of the questions to which I have devoted the most time and effort in my nearly 50-year career is this: why do some people vote in elections and others don’t? </p>
<p>It’s the kind of question I love — a straight-forward one, about simple citizen behaviour. It appeals to my populist side. I’m always curious to understand what motivates people around me to make the kind of small decisions that speak volumes about who they are and what they are passionate about. </p>
<p>Hundreds of factors affect the decision to vote or abstain from voting during an election and these vary from voter to voter. The researcher’s goal is not to create an exhaustive inventory of all these factors. Rather, it is to systematically examine certain hypotheses about them.</p>
<h2>A moral duty</h2>
<p>In 2000, I wrote <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/41015788_To_Vote_or_Not_to_Vote_The_Merits_and_Limits_of_Rational_Choice_Theory">“To Vote or Not to Vote? The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory”</a>. Rational choice theory, which was developed by economists, was popular in political science at the time and was being used to explain everything from the legislators’ to voters’ behaviour. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457172/original/file-20220408-41073-hgjtw1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.meetview.ca/sshrc20220412/">Author André Blais will discuss his research on elections during a live event on April 12 co-sponsored by The Conversation and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Click here to register.</a></span>
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<p>In the case of voters, the theory was paradoxical. The “rational” voter realizes that in an election with millions of voters, the probability that his or her vote will change the outcome is infinitesimally small. In sum, the anticipated gain is minimal and most likely greater than the anticipated cost, i.e. the time spent deciding who to vote for and getting to the polls.</p>
<p>From this point of view, abstention seems to be the rational option. However, we see that most people do decide to vote, at least in national elections (the average turnout is now around 65 to 70 per cent). The facts seem to contradict the theory.</p>
<p>So I spent a few years reading and re-reading the research on voter turnout and conducting new studies of all kinds. These were mostly surveys, which remain the preferred instrument for understanding individual behaviour, but I also analyzed election results, conducted semi-structured interviews and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316674547_Why_Do_People_Vote_An_Experiment_in_Rationality">even did an experiment to see how students react when presented with rational choice theory</a>.</p>
<p>My conclusion was that when it comes to understanding voting behaviour, rational choice theory is not very useful. When deciding whether to vote or not, most people do not do a cost/benefit analysis. In fact, many people vote in an election primarily because they feel it is a moral duty to do so. Ethical considerations outweigh “rational” ones. </p>
<p>I would add, however, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/abs/does-voting-in-one-election-reduce-the-expected-cost-of-voting-in-subsequent-elections/2839CE236315589804F3D9D7477954FB">that some voters are sensitive to how much time it takes to vote</a>, and that turnout is somewhat higher when the outcome of the election is uncertain. So rational considerations do come into play somewhat. Rational choice theory should not be rejected entirely, even if its contribution is limited.</p>
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<img alt="People line up in front of a facility" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456169/original/file-20220404-11-dgqbzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People line up to vote in an advance poll during the federal election on Sept. 10, 2021, in Chambly, Que. Rational considerations play little role in the decision to vote or not. Rather, it is the moral duty that prevails.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Canadian Press/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
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<h2>A question of motivation</h2>
<p>More recently, I wrote with a former student of mine <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-motivation-to-vote">“The Motivation to Vote: Explaining Electoral Participation”</a>. The thesis is clear and simple: the decision to vote or not is above all a matter of motivation. </p>
<p>If I am interested in politics, it is more or less self-evident that I will want to vote in an election. In the same perspective, if I am not interested in politics, the “normal” thing to do is…nothing, i.e. not vote. Unless, of course, I believe that voting is not only a right but also a civic duty, in which case I would feel guilty for not voting.</p>
<p>In the book we show that interest in politics and a sense of duty are the two attitudes that most strongly correlate with the decision to vote or not. We then refer to research showing that these two attitudes are very stable <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335611940_How_Stable_is_the_Sense_of_Civic_Duty_to_Vote_A_Panel_Study_on_the_Individual-Level_Stability_of_the_Attitude">and change little after the age of 20</a>. Ultimately, values acquired early in life, one’s taste (or not) for politics and one’s conception of civic duties in a society are what most influence the decision to vote or not.</p>
<h2>Habit and resources</h2>
<p>Our work questions the validity of influential theories of voter turnout. </p>
<p>One of these theories is that people vote or abstain out of habit. We show that this explanation is not convincing. It is true that there is stability in behaviour about voting; a person who votes (or abstains) in one election is likely to do the same in the next.</p>
<p>But if it were a habit, one would expect to find that the values (such as interest in politics) that influence participation have a weaker impact on older people (who are more habitual and therefore less influenced by their values). The data show that this is not the case. The determinants of voting are basically the same for the young and the old. So the habit hypothesis is invalidated.</p>
<p>Our interpretation also casts doubt on another influential interpretation, that of resources. It is often argued that poorer and less educated people vote the least and that this is essentially because they have fewer political resources. While it is true that voter turnout is correlated with education and income, it should also be noted that this correlation is not very strong.</p>
<p>Moreover, it is far from clear that this is explained by a lack of resources, since the vast majority of citizens find it easy to vote. Resource theory is useful for explaining more demanding modes of participation, but it does not really apply to voting.</p>
<p>Some of my detractors will say that I take great pleasure in refuting popular explanations. There may be some truth to that. My motto is “Not Convinced,” as my students kindly reminded me at a conference in my honour. But isn’t the role of the researcher to subject both scientific theories and common sense to rigorous scrutiny, starting with healthy skepticism?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180734/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Blais ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Many factors affect the decision of whether or not to vote in an election: the decision is mostly about motivation, interest in politics and sense of duty.André Blais, Full Professor, Department of Political Science, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1755512022-02-13T07:12:37Z2022-02-13T07:12:37ZDigital technology can improve Nigeria’s elections: lessons from 2019<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445357/original/file-20220209-27-rq74nv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Card readers were used to confirm permanent voter cards during the 2019 Presidential elections in Nigeria.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/staff-of-the-independent-national-electoral-commission-news-photo/1125554605?adppopup=true">Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Digital technologies to improve the reliability of election results have become more widely used around the world in the past two decades. In African countries, nearly all <a href="https://eisa.org/pdf/JAE15.2Alebiosu.pdf">recent general elections</a> have used various kinds of digital technology. </p>
<p>These include biometric voter registration, smart card readers, voters’ cards, optical mark recognition, direct electronic recording, and electronic result transmission. The principal <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2018.1470165">reason</a> for using them is to contain electoral fraud. It also promotes the credibility of elections.</p>
<p>Nigeria started using digital technology in the electoral process <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/10/what-other-african-elections-tell-us-about-nigerias-bet-on-biometrics/">in 2011</a>. The Independent National Electoral Commission introduced the automated fingerprint identification system to stop voters registering more than once. </p>
<p>The permanent voter’s card and smart card reader were introduced in <a href="https://www.eisa.org/pdf/JAE15.2Alebiosu.pdf">the 2015 general elections</a>. At the polling station, a voter’s identity is verified by matching his or her biometrics to the voter’s card. The voter is then allowed to vote and the votes are counted manually after the voting ends. </p>
<p>The reliability of these devices generated some controversy among Nigerians, but using them in the 2015 and 2019 general elections improved the legitimacy of the electoral process. Electoral outcomes were better accepted, with fewer objections to the results.</p>
<p>There hasn’t been any systematic study, though, of how smart card readers contributed to improving Nigeria’s election credibility and legitimacy. This is what I decided to explore using the case of the 2019 general elections. My study relied mostly on documentary sources and agency reports to provide qualitative results. </p>
<h2>My research</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00358533.2020.1788755">My research</a> found that digital innovations enhanced elections in Nigeria because they reduced the instances of electoral fraud and irregularities. But there are still some drawbacks affecting their efficiency. </p>
<p>I conclude that the problems are not operational issues relating to machines not working. Rather, they reflect problems in the management of elections. </p>
<p>Nigeria had elections in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. The outcomes all generated concerns over their <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339599665_THE_QUEST_FOR_CREDIBLE_ELECTIONS_IN_NIGERIA_A_CRITICAL_EVALUATION_OF_THE_2015_GENERAL_ELECTIONS">credibility</a>. They were marred by <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/317067-analysis-delayed-voting-malpractices-other-lapses-observed-in-february-23-elections.html">malpractices</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2007/04/25/nigeria-presidential-election-marred-fraud-violence">violence</a>. Though the 2011 election was more fair than before, disputes over the outcome triggered <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2011/08/nigerias-2011-elections-best-run-most-violent">post election violence</a>. </p>
<h2>Old concerns persist</h2>
<p>While digitisation holds great prospects, some political actors remain unconvinced. In July 2021 the Senate <a href="https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-all-apc-senators-vote-against-electronic-transmission-of-results-the-full-list/">rejected</a> the provision in the Electoral Act for the introduction of electronic voting and electronic transmission of results. </p>
<p>These innovations would be a step beyond the voter’s card and smart card reader. Both are <a href="https://www.icirnigeria.org/how-electronic-transmission-of-results-will-affect-elections-in-nigeria/">aimed</a> at reducing errors in the calculation of votes and collating results faster.</p>
<p>The Senate said electronic voting was likely to compromise the credibility of elections, as did the malfunction of some card readers during the <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/after-initial-card-reader-failure-nigerians-persevere-vote-in-peaceful-elections/">2015</a> and <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/315393-nigeriadecides2019-card-readers-remain-a-challenge.html">2019 elections</a>. </p>
<p>The rejection hinged on the National Communication Commission’s <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/474174-only-50-of-polling-units-have-3g-network-to-transmit-election-results-ncc.html">comment</a> that only half of the polling units could transmit election results.</p>
<p>The federal government also <a href="https://punchng.com/2023-electronic-transmission-of-results-doubtful-301-lgs-lack-internet-facilities/">claimed</a> that digital transmission of election results could not be considered in the 2023 general elections because 473 out of the 774 local governments had no internet access.</p>
<p>The Senate later <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/10/electronic-transmission-of-poll-results-senate-in-u-turn-imposes-direct-primaries-on-parties/">rescinded</a> its decision after a public outcry.</p>
<h2>Push for digitisation</h2>
<p>But the electoral commission persisted in its <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/12/inec-insists-on-using-technology-for-elections/">call</a> for digitisation. And <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/184987-groups-urge-inec-to-use-digital-collation-of-election-results.html">civil society organisations</a> have shown support because of the prospect of reducing electoral fraud and improving transparency. They have also <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/486773-inec-insists-its-ready-for-electronic-transmission-of-election-results.html">pushed</a> for electronic voting and transmission of election results. </p>
<p>Similarly, the <a href="https://situationroomng.org/">Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room</a>, an umbrella for over 70 civil society organisations, supported the use of digital technology. </p>
<h2>Successes and limitations</h2>
<p>I discovered through my research that the application of digital technology to some extent has enhanced the quality of elections in Nigeria. It’s an improvement compared to previous elections characterised by fraud and manipulation. </p>
<p>However, there are some drawbacks owing to technology failure and structural and systemic problems. One of the systemic issues is that the electoral commission lacks autonomy in terms of funding. Others are lack of transparency and accountability and insufficient security during elections. These have cast doubt on the elections’ integrity and raised concerns about the reliability of digital technology. </p>
<p>This is not surprising. Evidence from <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2018.1470165">studies</a> has shown that the outcomes of digital technology in elections are mixed. </p>
<p>For instance, during the 2019 elections in Nigeria, there were cases of smart card readers <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/315393-nigeriadecides2019-card-readers-remain-a-challenge.html">malfunctioning</a> in some <a href="https://situationroomng.org/2019-elections-smart-card-reader-challenges/">voting centers</a>. This delayed voters’ accreditation in many polling units. </p>
<p>Further, there was no uniform contingency plan nationally. The electoral officials allowed manual voting in some polling units. In other cases, they permitted the use of “incident forms”, a form filled by election officials on behalf of a voter before being allowed to vote. This happened when smart card readers could not authenticate the voter’s card. A lot of time was wasted in the process, resulting in an extension of the voting period. Many of these hitches occurred, particularly during March 2015 presidential and national assembly elections. </p>
<p>Despite these challenges, I found that the application of digital technology since 2015 has modestly improved the overall quality of elections in Nigeria. It has reduced the incidence of double registration, electoral fraud and violence and <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/487818-editorial-electronic-voting-and-transmission-of-results-the-imperative-to-safeguard-democracy.html?">restored</a> some degree of confidence in the electoral process. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>Systemic and institutional issues persist. I found that the autonomy of the electoral commission, inadequate technology infrastructure and security are concerns in Nigeria. So are trust and confidence in digital technology among politicians and voters. </p>
<p>These should be tackled by government undertaking more reforms of the electoral body and improvement in technological infrastructure. Further, the National Assembly should review the Electoral Act, particularly its security aspect. I think if security is enhanced during elections, digitisation will proceed better. </p>
<p>Similarly, concerted efforts should be paid to the risk of digital technology’s failure. And election staff should get adequate training on how to use the technology.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175551/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abiodun Fatai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Digitisation has enhanced the conduct of elections in Nigeria but there are still some drawbacks affecting its efficiency.Abiodun Fatai, Senior Lecturer, Lagos State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1735422021-12-15T17:38:25Z2021-12-15T17:38:25ZWhy we still fall for influencers, salesmen and politicians who lie<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437812/original/file-20211215-21-xx58o0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Capturing the public's attention is about standing out in a crowd of influencers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-standing-on-podium-closes-outbreaks-154420913">Peshkova | Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Our society is driven by social influence. The salesman who wants to sell you a car, the politician who wants your vote and the Tiktok influencer who wants you to “like” their videos have one thing in common: they are vying for your attention. </p>
<p>For scientists – in psychology, politics and computer sciences – understanding quite how we attract people’s attention is a challenge. In a recent study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2021.103505">we found</a> that social influence is best understood as a competition.</p>
<p>People often think of social influence as a one-to-one relationship between the influencer and their target. But every election has at least two candidates. Similarly, thousands of videos are uploaded on TikTok every day, each hoping to be the one that goes viral. And, every time a salesman sells a car, his competing colleagues lose a customer. </p>
<p>Influencing is a zero-sum game. More than how to influence people, the question is how to be more influential than others. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An overhead shot of women sitting in a row and looking at their phones." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437815/original/file-20211215-23-1vs198m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Going viral is a zero-sum game.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-millennials-friends-surfing-online-mobile-1181376727">DisobeyArt | Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Game theory</h2>
<p>We designed a laboratory model of social influence in the form of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02314-5">game</a> to be played by three people: one client and two advisers. The client has to buy one of two lottery tickets but has no information about which is better. The advisers, who have private access to such information, and compete for being hired by the client. </p>
<p>Our model, much like social influence in real life, is a zero-sum game: one adviser’s success is the other’s failure. This allowed us to use <a href="https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.001.0001/acprof-9780195300574">game theory </a> to find an optimal strategy for the adviser. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2021.103505">analysis</a> of game theory showed that a clear strategy can be formulated: if you already have influence (if you are hired), be vague and stay close to the truth. If, conversely, you are ignored, be loud, exaggerate and, if necessary, just lie to stand out. </p>
<p>We conducted seven experiments with more than 800 participants who played the role of the client. We found that strategic distortion of the truth outperformed honest advising in winning over and retaining individual clients in up to 80% of the time. When advisers were <a href="https://theconversation.com/strategic-lies-deliberate-untruths-used-as-a-political-tactic-new-study-159723">strategically dishonest</a>, they also succeeded in swaying groups of clients who elected their adviser democratically in each round.</p>
<p>This strategy, of course, is familiar to anyone who lived through <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1940161221994100">the Brexit campaign</a>, as former UK prime minister David Cameron clearly describes in his book, For the Record. According to Cameron, Boris Johnson played precisely the card we would expect the disadvantaged candidate (the one challenging the incumbent) to play. Cameron advocated remaining in the EU, so Johnson embraced the leave campaign.</p>
<p>Cameron writes that Johnson was making a strategic choice to differentiate himself from the incumbents. Johnson, he says, “risked an outcome he didn’t believe in because it would help his political career”. And, he adds, because Johnson was certain the leave side would lose, backing it brought little risk of breaking up the government he wanted to lead one day. “It would be a risk-free bet on himself,” Cameron writes. </p>
<h2>Competition characteristics</h2>
<p>Central to this model were the three hallmarks of competition for social influence: information asymmetry, delegation of future decisions and intractable uncertainty. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165410101000180">Information asymmetry</a> occurs when influence seekers (politicians or advisers) know more about an issue than the people they seek to influence (voters or clients). In the political arena, the issues at stake are often multidimensional and too complex for people to be fully informed about. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00343404.2017.1287350?journalCode=cres20">In the Brexit vote</a>, for example, the regions most strongly favouring Leave were also —- to the surprise of many voters —- the most dependent on European Union markets for their local development. </p>
<p>Competition for social influence also often involves <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb02199.x">a delegation of power</a>: voters or clients granting politicians or fund managers the power to make future decisions on their behalf. </p>
<p>Finally, predicting the future is hard. Political science writer Philip Tetlock, in his 2017 book, Expert Political Judgement shows how pundits who are regularly tasked to predict uncertain future events in finance, politics, or sports often turn out to be wrong. Competition for social influence thus tends to take place under <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335004212_The_Robust_Beauty_of_Heuristics_in_Choice_under_Uncertainty">high outcome uncertainty</a>. Evaluating advice accuracy is difficult under high uncertainty. This creates opportunities for competing advisers to seek influence strategically because few would remember the failure of their radical but dishonest predictions.</p>
<h2>Public support</h2>
<p>Our findings suggest that the success of dishonesty is due to our willingness to jump to conclusions in hindsight. This chimes with what research shows on how we <a href="https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007089">assess the choices we have made</a>. </p>
<p>If an adviser was the only one to predict a bad outcome before it happened, we tend to think that they must have known something that others did not. While this may sometimes be true, often it is just pure luck. A strategic adviser takes advantage of this willingness we have to trust our hindsight to inflate their confidence or even, dishonestly advise against the available evidence simply to stand out. </p>
<p>An honest adviser, when ignored, is less effective (than their dishonest rival) in persuading the client to shift: commitment to honesty stops them from positioning themselves as a radical alternative if there is no evidence to justify it. </p>
<p>These kinds of strategies are repeatedly and ruthlessly employed by attention-hungry influencers because they work. Our analysis helps explain why politicians who are repeatedly found out to have lied could continue to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-vote-for-politicians-they-know-are-liars-128953">enjoy public support</a>. We hope that our work will generate awareness in the public and help us all to see through such manipulative and dishonest strategies and protect the citizens against them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was done in collaboration with Ralf Kurvers, Jurgis Karpus, Uri Hertz, Marta Bolade, Bertrand Jayles and Ken Binmore. We acknowledge financial support by the Max Planck Institute for Human Development to R.K. Support from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (819040; acronym: rid-O) to B.B. and J.K. is acknowledged. BB was also supported by the NOMIS foundation and the Humboldt Foundation . J.K. was supported by LMUexcellent, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Free State of Bavaria under the Excellence Strategy of the Federal Government and the Länder. U.H. was supported by the National Institute of Psychobiology in Israel ( 211-19-20 ) and the Israel Science Foundation ( 1532/20 ).</span></em></p>Social influencers vie for public attention in a crowded market place. This makes the bold and the ruthless even more likely to opt for strategic dishonesty if it will further their interests.Bahador Bahrami, Group Leader and Senior Scientist , Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711972021-11-04T20:35:04Z2021-11-04T20:35:04ZLessons from the Virginia governor’s race: Pay attention to voters’ concerns instead of making it all about national politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430335/original/file-20211104-22514-hy0vww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C607%2C5589%2C3140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Exit political stage, heading to the right.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/virginia-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-former-virginia-news-photo/1236308344?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I teach political speech writing. My students know that earlier this year I served on a committee that wrote the University of Virginia’s <a href="https://news.virginia.edu/content/statement-committee-free-expression-and-free-inquiry">statement on free speech and free inquiry</a>, which stated that “All views, beliefs, and perspectives deserve to be articulated and heard free from interference.” </p>
<p>I’m also a conservative who recently co-taught a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2020/12/28/liberal-conservative-teach-2020-election-emerge-friends-column/4027231001/">2020 elections class</a> with a liberal colleague – and we both managed to survive. In my class, the mainly liberal students know they can speak freely about what’s important to them. Being open about your political views is important – but so too is listening generously to those of others.</p>
<p>They’ve written speeches about climate change, defunding the police, voting reforms, the Texas abortion law, misinformation on social media, electric cars, education policy, oil pipelines, critical race theory, China’s oppression of the Uyghurs, a universal basic income, and even the need for more napping during the day. </p>
<p>Across the board, they want to hear all sides of an argument and decide for themselves. They don’t want to be told what to believe. They’re taking speech writing because they want to learn how to make a good case in the face of a hostile audience.</p>
<p>And what I heard in the runup to the Nov. 2 elections was that students are increasingly worried about the job market and the economy they’ll be walking into upon graduation; they are concerned about rising crime rates in Charlottesville, where they attend college; and they wonder if they’ll be able to freely express their opinions – left or right – here at the university.</p>
<p>So it was no surprise to me that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">exit polls of Virginia voters</a> this week showed that the economy and education were voters’ top concerns, just as they are for many of my 20-something students. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former U.S. President Barack Obama fist-bumping Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430348/original/file-20211104-17-fc1zsy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former U.S. President Barack Obama campaigns with Democratic gubernatorial candidate amd former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Oct. 23, 2021, in Richmond, Virginia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-u-s-president-barack-obama-campaigns-with-democratic-news-photo/1348284212?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Old playbook, new circumstances</h2>
<p>No matter what subject my students are writing speeches on – from critical race theory to electric cars – they want to take on all sides of an argument.</p>
<p>Similarly, many voters wanted to hear both candidates’ views on “kitchen table” issues – such as expanding job opportunities, ensuring public safety, and reforming education – in the closing weeks before the election. But that wasn’t always what voters got. Instead, they were often presented not with the issues, but with heavyweight political endorsements.</p>
<p>Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe brought in one Democratic star after another: President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama, voting rights activist Stacey Abrams and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all made appearances for the former governor.</p>
<p>On one hand, McAuliffe’s playbook has worked for others in the past. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/25/big-name-democrats-are-campaigning-virginias-race-governor-does-that-help-candidates/">Research</a> by <a href="https://web.s.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=15354738&AN=110210185&h=Txy82Hlx3DObnSSmpvmLKuXTT6TJDGZL2PSMHQh22AB0B3I2HfHD%2f6Lk49nBxa6rkj6tMNQKRNeYdVeeGbOS5w%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d15354738%26AN%3d110210185">Rob Mellen Jr. and Kathleen Searles</a> into presidential campaign appearances during midterm elections between 1986 and 2006 showed that visits by the campaigner-in-chief can boost turnout and campaign donations for candidates – but only if the president is popular.</p>
<p>The problem in Virginia was that according to an <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579440-poll-more-democrats-in-new-poll-want-someone-other-than-biden-as-partys">NPR-PBS Newshour-Marist poll</a> that came out the day before the election, a plurality of Democrats no longer want Joe Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024. Add to that Biden’s collapsing approval ratings, which sank lower every week in October, according to <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html">Reuters</a>.</p>
<p>It seems McAuliffe didn’t realize the albatross effect Biden was having on his own candidacy. Or the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_of_the_union/">disconnect</a> right now between voters and those stars campaigning with him.</p>
<p>In contrast to McAuliffe, Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin talked early and often about his “<a href="https://www.youngkinforgovernor.com/game-plan">day one game plan</a>,” which focused on specific actions he’d take on the economy, public safety and education – the quality-of-life issues voters wanted to hear about. He hit the airwaves with TV ads comparing his policies with McAuliffe’s record and made his best case.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Glenn Youngkin at a campaign rally with a sign next to him that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430351/original/file-20211104-13-eiiys3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winning candidate Glenn Youngkin made the concerns of parents a central part of his campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-gubernatorial-candidate-glenn-youngkin-speaks-news-photo/1347542247?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Succession stymied</h2>
<p>McAuliffe also faced an issue unique to Virginia that dampened his chances of success. Virginia is the only state in the nation that legally bars governors from a second successive term. Virginia law changed in <a href="https://vpm.org/listen/articles/6165/two-term-virginia-governors-rare-but-not-unprecedented">1851</a>, after several governors – including Patrick Henry – had served two successive terms in office. So from 1851 onward, the state has had only one-term governors – with one exception, in 1974, when former Democratic governor Mills Godwin waited four years and came back as a Republican. </p>
<p>McAuliffe, who held the governor’s job from 2014 to 2018, was trying to be the second exception. There’s a reason <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Virginia">former Virginia governors Chuck Robb, Mark Warner, George Allen and Tim Kaine</a> all went on to become U.S. senators from the commonwealth instead of returning later as second-term governors. Virginians like a fresh face in the governor’s office, and this election was no exception.</p>
<p>The last time Virginia had a Republican governor was 2009, and a decade of one-party control of the governor’s mansion has led to a rising sense of frustration among voters – including <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/">suburban independents</a> who swung away from Democrats this week – concerned with the stagnation of Virginia’s economy, the perceived lack of support for police and changes to parts of the educational curriculum in Virginia’s K-12 schools. </p>
<p>Instead of making a strong case for addressing these issues, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html">McAuliffe campaign preferred to bring Trump into everything</a>. In fact, at one McAuliffe rally in late October, Joe Biden mentioned Donald Trump <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/10/26/biden-says-trump-24-times-in-virginia-stump-for-mcauliffe/">24 times</a> in a single speech. </p>
<p>That strategy didn’t, by and large, connect with the concerns of working-class voters – from truck drivers dealing with hikes in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/virginia-general-assembly-approves-higher-gas-tax-speed-cameras-and-cellphone-ban/2020/03/08/cb688356-5fbf-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html">gas tax</a> to urban residents worried about the <a href="https://www.nbc12.com/2021/06/07/homicides-virginia-hit-highest-levels-two-decades/">20-year high</a> in the murder rate to parents upset about what’s been going on in Loudoun County schools, where <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2021/10/29/loudoun-county-school-board-assault-virginia-governor-race/6179600001/">USA Today</a> reports that school board meetings “have spiraled into violence, accusations of student sexual assault are dominating headlines, and some parents have sued the school board over the district’s equity initiatives.” </p>
<p>The turning point came when McAuliffe stunned a debate audience with his <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-says-parents-shouldn-t-173500644.html">statement</a>, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach,” not realizing that there are likely far more voters who consider themselves parents first – and members of a political party second. When he failed to disavow a Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-addresses-violent-threats-against-school-officials-and-teachers">memo</a> labeling parents at school board meetings as “criminals,” there was no going back. His silence spoke volumes to everyone watching.</p>
<p>These days, it takes guts to speak up for what you believe in.</p>
<p>My sense is that there’s a growing number of Americans willing to stand up and courageously challenge the age in which we live. From what I’m seeing and hearing in just one college classroom, I have no doubt more brave young people – on both sides of the aisle – will make their case for positive change in the years to come.</p>
<p>Isn’t that what elections are all about?</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a former speechwriter for President George HW Bush, and a former Deputy Director of Communications at the Republican National Committee. My husband and I know the Youngkin family, as our daughters went to the same high school.</span></em></p>A former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush watched the Virginia governor’s race through the eyes of her students at the University of Virginia, whose concerns were shared by most voters.Mary Kate Cary, Adjunct Professor, Department of Politics and Senior Fellow, UVA's Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1686482021-10-03T12:58:34Z2021-10-03T12:58:34ZCanada’s first-past-the-post electoral system highlights once again the need for reform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423945/original/file-20210929-19-1r85tup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4409%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Our first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, meaning it's time to revisit electoral reform. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pietro Mattia/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent federal election produced the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-minority-governments-have-been-good-and-sometimes-bad-for-canada-168018">second minority government</a> in a row — and the fifth since 2004. </p>
<p>Neither Conservatives nor Liberals <a href="https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e">received more than 34 per cent of the popular vote nationwide,</a> but parliamentary representation remains heavily distorted. </p>
<p>Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system works poorly when there are lots of three-way races and even some four-way races. Seats can be won with far less than a majority, and some regions are disproportionately represented by a single party. There is also a growing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-first-past-the-post-rural-urban-divide-1.6186799">rural-urban divide</a> in representation that is exacerbating political fault lines.</p>
<p>There is a compelling alternative used by many other nations: proportional representation, where seats in parliament reflect vote shares. There are three concerns, however: local representation, fringe parties and weak governments. Nonetheless, a smartly designed proportional system can overcome the first two concerns, and parliamentary protocol can address the third. </p>
<h2>A new idea for electoral reform</h2>
<p>The menu of electoral systems used to feature either proportionality, local representation or awkward combinations of the two.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.015">My own research</a> offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation. It combines provincial proportional representation with electoral districts represented by two members of Parliament instead of one.</p>
<p>People vote for parties instead of local candidates, and elected members from each party have to represent two districts each so that the most voters are represented by their preferred party choice from each riding. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman lines up outside a building to vote with yellow vote signs on either side of her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423948/original/file-20210929-66321-1dt7n1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter queues at a polling station to cast their ballot in Toronto in the 2021 federal election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In almost all instances, the “senior” member who received more votes than the “junior” member in a riding will be from the same party as with our current system.</p>
<p>But because each district has two members of Parliament, there is better local representation overall, and there is more competition among parties for effective representation of each district. </p>
<p>Each parliamentarian has a bit more work than before, looking after two districts rather than one. Because voting patterns cluster locally, most parliamentarians will look after neighbouring districts. Dual representation makes it much more likely that districts are represented by someone from a party in government. Voters have two members of Parliament they can appeal to with their local concerns. </p>
<h2>Provinces keep same number of seats</h2>
<p>Proportionality is achieved separately for each province, reflecting Canada’s federal structure. Each province would maintain their current number of seats, while the three territories would continue to elect their member of Parliament directly. Provincial proportionality means that only Albertan parliamentarians would represent Alberta, and only Québecois parliamentarians would represent Québec.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bernier, in a blue suit, frowns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423950/original/file-20210929-66205-15b85r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maxime Bernier speaks to supporters on election night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To prevent regional and fringe parties from gaining undue representation and influence, proportionality needs strong thresholds: a five per cent hurdle nationwide and for each province. In September’s election, this threshold would have applied to both the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Maxime Bernier’s PPC came within a whisker of the first hurdle, receiving 4.94 per cent of the popular vote nationwide.</p>
<p>Some critics associate proportionality with fractious parliaments, instability, weak governments and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302753650346">fiscal profligacy</a>. But this outcome is unlikely in Canada because there are well-established major parties that will continue to vie for first place. </p>
<p>Parliamentary protocol already ensures that governments can’t be toppled too easily. The “<a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/about/procedureandpractice3rdedition/ch_02_2-e.html">confidence convention</a>” requires a government to enjoy the support and confidence of the majority in the House of Commons. The current system encourages premature parliamentary dissolution in a quest for majority government. But majority governments remain elusive.</p>
<h2>Parliamentary composition</h2>
<p>What would the electoral map look like under proportionality?</p>
<p>Conservatives would gain four seats (123 instead of 119), Liberals would lose 36 seats (123 instead of 159), the NDP would gain 40 seats (65 instead of 25) and the Bloc Québécois would lose six seats (27 instead of 33). </p>
<p>The Green Party and People’s Party would be shut out due to the five per cent hurdle. Parliament would retain a centre-left majority, but with a rather different composition. (Riding-by-riding results are on <a href="https://wernerantweiler.ca/blog.php?item=2021-09-24">my web page</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph shows the actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424082/original/file-20210930-24-96n76p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Actual and hypothetical composition of the 44th Canadian Parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors' calculations</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Electoral reform creates winners and losers. In 2021, proportionality would have benefited New Democrats the most. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Liberals prefer milder versions of electoral reform such as ranked ballots. Conservatives prefer none at all.</p>
<p>After Liberals won a majority government in 2015, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazines/fevrier-2017/broken-trust-on-electoral-reform/">their appetite for electoral reform quickly vanished</a>. Ultimately, electoral reform may only come about if a smaller party — likely the NDP — holds the balance of power and makes electoral reform the price to pay for supporting a minority government.</p>
<p>The fact remains that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/septembe-2021/too-many-canadians-vote-for-a-political-party-leaving-local-candidates-with-little-influence/">voters care more about parties than local candidates</a>. Proportionality would be fairer, but effective local representation is also needed and can actually be improved by maximizing preferred-party representation in each district.</p>
<p>My research shows that local representation does not need to be diluted to gain proportionality. Canada deserves a 21st-century electoral system that fits its unique political landscape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168648/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Werner Antweiler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research offers a new electoral system that can deliver proportionality and even enhance local representation.Werner Antweiler, Associate Professor, Strategy and Business Economics, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.