Hurricane Pali churns over the eastern Pacific on January 11.
NASA Earth Observatory
January hurricanes are rare events, but two have already formed this month. Atmospheric scientist Adam Sobel explains the conditions that generated Pali and Alex.
Are you dreaming of a festive win at the bookies? Here are your chances.
Simpler climate models could help more people understand the processes behind the predictions.
Climate models are complicated - and necessarily so if they are to recreate our complex world. But a new, simpler climate model aims to take some of the mystery out of the art of climate modelling.
One of the world's top weather forecasting services just lost a major contract.
This doesn’t happen very often. But the Bureau of Meteorology is getting much better at predicting when it will.
AAP Image/NEWZULU/BILL SHRAPNEL
Moaning about weather forecasts is almost an Australian national pastime. But weather predictions have improved a lot, and with a new satellite and supercomputer, they are about to get even more reliable.
Luckily, we have more to go on now than just knowing the tracks of previous named storms.
We're no longer caught off guard when hurricanes make landfall, the way people were into the early 1900s. Better communications, measurements and observations all feed into better forecasts and more warning.
Hurricane path forecasts are good, but even the ‘cone of uncertainty’ doesn’t fully describe where the hazards could be.
National Hurricane Center
Forecasting successes can breed complacency in the general public. But all hurricane damage isn't necessarily contained within the "cone of uncertainty."
Whale sharks were one of the warm water species to move south during the 2010-2011 marine heatwave.
While eastern Australia trembles in the face of an El Niño, Western Australia's oceans could finally see relief from devastating marine heatwaves.
Breaking the ice: while scientists increasingly understand why Antarctic sea ice is growing, it remains tricky to forecast.
Australian Antarctic Division
Antarctica's sea ice is changing in ways that scientists didn't predict, and is now causing headaches for Antarctic stations.
Warming seas suggest El Niño is on the horizon.
El Niño is officially on, and comparing it to previous events suggests it could be big one, perhaps leading to record-breaking temperatures.
El Niño is often associated with drier conditions in winter and spring in eastern Australia.
Tim J Keegan/Flickr
El Niño is officially here according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
The threat of an El Niño has not gone away for Australia.
This last year we were preparing for an El Niño. But then it all just fizzled out. So what happened? And could this be the year?
The Argo ocean profiling floats are part of a year-round monitoring network for the world’s oceans.
In 1985, when CSIRO's marine labs were launched, a seven-day weather forecast was little better than chance. Now, thanks to advances in our understanding of the oceans, our predictions are far better.
Recent extreme rains such as those that hit Sydney recently are actually decreasing, but extreme rain in summer is going up.
AAP Image/NEWZULU/LISA HOSKING
Extreme rainfall in Sydney is increasing - but only in summer, potentially leading to more flash floods in the city.
The recent wild weather dumped more than 100 mm of rain on Sydney in a day.
AAP Image/David Moir
The recent wild weather that lashed New South Wales has been described as 'once-in-a-century'. But how often does it really happen?
Sand blown inland at Bondi Beach.
AAP Image/David Moir
What causes the wild weather that's hit Sydney and central New South Wales over the past 24 hours?
Clumps of thunderstorms are driving increases in rain over tropical oceans.
Image courtesy of the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center
For a long time climate models have forecast increasing rainfall in tropics. Now we know part of the reason: clumpy thunderstorms.
Calm after the storm in New York City.
“Snowmageddon” was predicted – three feet of snow, blizzards whipped up by high winds, a freeze of the whole transport system. What New York got was “snowperbole”. Yes, it snowed, but not as badly as predicted…
Adjusted data from Australian weather stations has been peer-reviewed before. But the government’s new technical panel could still offer useful advice.
The federal government’s new “Technical Advisory Forum” on weather data, announced by parliamentary environment secretary Bob Baldwin last week, will “review and provide advice on Australia’s official…
What does Paraguay have to do with the global temperature record?
An article in The Australian today has once again raised the question of why scientists, in trying to estimate how the global and regional surface temperatures of Earth may have changed over the past century…