tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/wind-power-1385/articlesWind power – The Conversation2024-03-21T12:40:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254882024-03-21T12:40:03Z2024-03-21T12:40:03ZSix innovative ways to float skyscraper-sized wind turbines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582845/original/file-20240319-18-t87r9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5520%2C3677&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A large floating wind turbine is installed in France, October 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Obatala-photography</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Yes, you read that right – float. You may have seen a wind turbine in the sea before, but chances are you were looking at a “fixed” turbine – that is, one that sits on top of a foundation drilled into the seabed. For the new frontier of offshore wind power, the focus is on floating wind turbines. In this case, the turbines are supported by floating structures that bob and sway in response to waves and wind and are moored with chains and anchored to the seafloor. </p>
<p>This is becoming the focus of the sector for the simple reason that most wind blows above deep water, where building fixed platforms would be too expensive or simply impossible. Designing these new floating platforms is a true engineering challenge, and is a focus of my <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123011292?via%3Dihub">academic</a> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123002733?via%3Dihub">research</a>.</p>
<p>These wind turbines are enormous, reaching up to 240m tall – about the size of a skyscraper. Since they are so tall, strong winds far above the sea surface tend to make the turbine want to tilt, so platform designs focus on minimising this tilt while still being cost-competitive with other forms of energy. </p>
<p>There are more than 100 ideas for platform designs, but we can broadly group them into the following six categories:</p>
<h2>1. Spar</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rendering of spar turbine design" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=733&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582823/original/file-20240319-24-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hywind Spar by Norwegian energy firm Equinor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.equinor.com/">Equinor</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Spars are narrow, deep platforms with weight added to the bottom to counteract the wind force (this is called “ballast”). They are usually relatively easy to make because they normally consist of just one cylinder. </p>
<p>However, they can extend 100 metres or more underwater, which means they can’t be deployed in normal docks which are not deep enough. Specialist installation procedures are required to install the turbine once the platform has been towed into deep water.</p>
<h2>2. Barge</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Floating wind turbine barge from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582828/original/file-20240319-30-a47s2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Damping Pool, by French firm BW Ideol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bw-ideol.com/en">BW Ideol/ V. Joncheray</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barges are wide, shallow platforms that use buoyancy far from the centre of the structure to counteract the wind force on the tower. As they usually extend less than 10 metres underwater, they do not need any specialist deep-water docks or installation vessels. </p>
<p>However, they can be difficult to make because the platform is usually a single, large unit with a complex shape.</p>
<h2>3. Tension-leg platform</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of floating wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1151&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582829/original/file-20240319-24-dx11p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">PelaFlex by Swansea-based Marine Power Systems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.marinepowersystems.co.uk/">Marine Power Systems</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tension-leg platforms, or TLPs, use taut mooring lines to connect the platform to the seabed and stop the turbine from tilting in the wind. </p>
<p>These platforms are usually smaller and lighter than the other types, which makes them easier to fit at a standard port. Also, their seabed “footprint” is small due to the taut lines. </p>
<p>However, the platforms are usually not stable until attached to their mooring lines, meaning that a special towing and installation solution is required.</p>
<h2>4. Semi-submersible</h2>
<p>Semi-submersibles consist of three, four or five connected vertical cylinders, with the turbine in the middle or above one of the columns. The platform utilises buoyancy far from the centre (similar to the barge) and ballast at the base of each column (similar to the spar). </p>
<p>Like barges, semi-submersibles do not require specialist tow-out equipment and work for a wide range of water depths. Manufacturing is again a challenge.</p>
<h2>5. Combination-type</h2>
<p>The four categories above are the more “traditional” platforms, influenced by their predecessors in the oil and gas industry. Since the 1960s, floating platforms have meant huge oil rigs can access deeper water sites (the deepest is over 2,000m). Most of these oil rigs in deep water are either semi-submersibles, anchored to the seabed with chains, or TLPs, connected to the seabed with taut cables.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Floating oil platform from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582839/original/file-20240319-18-9hddib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 22,000 tonne Perdido oil platform afloat in the Gulf of Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bseegov/51115227891/in/photolist-2kSSUqB-Wjv85j-5iDEs6-5iEtEc-5iE32z-5iE32V-5iEtE8-5iE32R-5iE32B-5iE32M-8eXPHK-8f27AA-8gjHwx-8f27X1">Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement BSEE</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More recently, there has been a trend towards platforms more specialised to floating wind. Specifically, some use a combination of the stability mechanisms, taking advantages from each of the previous designs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of floating wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1122&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582834/original/file-20240319-9877-2fnt6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TetraSpar, by Danish firm Stiesdal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.stiesdal.com/">Stiesdal</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, “lowerable ballast” platforms look like traditional semi-submersible or barge platforms, but with a weight hanging from from taut cables. </p>
<p>During turbine installation at the port and tow-out, the weight is raised, so that a traditional (non-deep) dock can be used and no specialist equipment is needed. At the site of installation, the weight is lowered and the platform gets extra stability from a low centre of mass.</p>
<p>Other designs use the benefits of stability from taut mooring lines (similar to a TLP) but are designed to be stable during tow-out and so don’t need a special installation vessel. For example, the picture below shows the X1 Wind platform:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of floating wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582835/original/file-20240319-30-3izp81.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A combination design by Barcelona-based X1 Wind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.x1wind.com/">X1 Wind</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The taut mooring lines are attached to a single column, which is installed initially. The rest of the platform, which is self-stable, is then towed out and connected to the pre-installed column with the taut mooring lines. The platform uses the extra stability from the mooring lines but without the tow-out instability typical of TLPs.</p>
<h2>6. Hybrid platforms</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Floating wind turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582842/original/file-20240319-30-7fvt0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">PelaFlex platform with wave energy converters and wind turbine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.marinepowersystems.co.uk/">Marine Power Systems</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These platforms add another type of renewable energy, most commonly a wave energy converter. This increases the overall amount of energy generated, and reduces costs as power cables, maintenance and other infrastructure can be shared.</p>
<p>A wave energy converter also reduces platform motion, which in turn increases the power performance from the turbine. </p>
<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>Four floating offshore wind farms have already been built, the largest of which was opened in 2023 <a href="https://www.equinor.com/energy/hywind-tampen">off the coast of Norway</a>. Two of these farms use the Hywind spar design and two use the <a href="https://www.principlepower.com/windfloat">WindFloat semi-submersible</a>. </p>
<p>There have been 18 other platform designs to reach at-sea testing, including at least one of each of the categories described above. Some have plans to build floating farms in the next few years, and additional early-stage designs have plans to deploy their own prototype devices in the near future.</p>
<p>Interestingly, platforms are actually diverging in design. After many years, wind turbines have mostly converged on the three-bladed design that you see today, but there has been no such convergence yet on a consensus “best” floating platform. This suggests significant improvements are still possible, especially in terms of reducing motion and decreasing cost. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma C. Edwards has received funding through the Cornwall FLOW Accelerator, funded through the European Regional Development Fund. Her other research has been funded by the US Office of Naval Research and the UK Research & Innovation council. </span></em></p>Meet the next generation of wind turbines that can operate in deeper waters.Emma C. Edwards, Career Development Fellow in Engineering, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260202024-03-19T06:21:50Z2024-03-19T06:21:50ZFinally, good news for power bills: energy regulator promises small savings for most customers on the ‘default market offer’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582732/original/file-20240319-16-nu9kfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C8%2C5540%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/queensland-australia-common-public-substations-1062133949">chinasong, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">price increases</a>, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re going down. </p>
<p>The good news is contained in two separate draft decisions today by the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news/articles/news-releases/default-market-offer-dmo-2024-25-draft-determination">Australian Energy Regulator</a> and Victoria’s <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer/victorian-default-offer-price-review-2024-25">Essential Services Commission</a>, on the maximum price energy retailers can charge electricity consumers under a specific plan that must be offered to all consumers.</p>
<p>The price is officially known as the “<a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/programs/price-safety-net">default market offer</a>”. It’s the price you’re charged on a “default” plan with an electricity retailer – in other words, the plan customers are on if they haven’t shopped around to find a better deal from competing retailers. The bottom line is, most of these residential electricity customers should receive price reductions of between 0.4% (A$13) and 7.1% ($211) next financial year. In most cases that’s less than the rate of inflation. </p>
<p>The relief is largely the result of a drop in <a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">wholesale prices</a> – that’s the price paid to the generators producing electricity. Unfortunately, however, at the same time transmission and distribution prices – or network costs – have gone up. So the savings won’t be as great as they might have been. </p>
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<h2>A big improvement on previous years</h2>
<p>This is the sixth year in which regulators have set default market offers for retail electricity customers. They do it where there is competition in the sector: so in southeast Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and, separately, Victoria. </p>
<p>It does not include Tasmania, the ACT, Western Australia or the Northern Territory, where the relevant regulator sets the prices and there’s no or very little competition.</p>
<p>About 5-10% of consumers across the states involved are on default plans. The rest have a contract arrangement with a retailer. But the draft decision, if enacted, still directly affects hundreds of thousands of people. And as commentators <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/aer-flags-price-cuts-for-some-rises-for-others/103602946">have observed</a>, it sends an important market signal about the general direction of electricity prices.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator says most residential customers on the default market offer can expect to save on their electricity bills in 2024-25. But the offers vary depending where you live. </p>
<p>Have a look at the table above to see what residential customers without “controlled load” can expect. That covers most households. (Controlled load is when you also have an off-peak tariff for hot water heating.)</p>
<p>Some customers will be paying more for electricity. In Southeast Queensland, residential customers will pay 2.7% more, which is an extra $53 on average. </p>
<p>Using an inflation forecast of 3.3%, the Australian Energy Regulator also calculates what they call the “real” year-to-year variation in prices. So even if there’s a small increase in the price for a particular area, it’s less than the rate of inflation. For that example in southeast Queensland, it equates to a decrease of 0.6% and a saving of $12 in real terms. </p>
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<p>Residential customers on the <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer">Victorian default market offer</a> can expect to save 6.4%. The retail power prices in Victoria are <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bill-relief-could-be-coming-as-wholesale-electricity-prices-fall-20240130-p5f14e">slightly better than in the other states</a> largely because there are lower wholesale power prices.</p>
<p>All in all it’s a big improvement on the price hikes of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">last year</a> and the year before that. </p>
<p>The final default market offer prices will be released in May, but we can expect little change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>Network prices are up</h2>
<p>Regulators set the default market offer by itemising all costs retailers are likely to incur in the course of running their business. From that, they calculate the fair price retailers should offer customers on default plans. </p>
<p>Wholesale electricity costs, incurred when retailers buy electricity from generators on the wholesale market, make up <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/key-issues/energy-costs/">maybe 30–40% of your bill</a>. </p>
<p>The other major cost retailers face is for the electricity transmission and distribution network – that is, the “poles and wires”. These also comprise around 40% of your bill.</p>
<p>The network price is driven by inflation and interest rate rises, and also includes the costs of maintenance, and building new transmission infrastructure to connect renewable energy generators to the grid.</p>
<p>The easing of wholesale prices since their 2022 peak has been offset by increases in these network prices. In fact, network prices have increased by almost as much as wholesale prices have come down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>A difficult ask</h2>
<p>Responding to the draft decision on Tuesday, Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/albanese-government-energy-plan-stabilising-energy-prices-after-global-crisis">said</a> it showed the Albanese government was stabilising energy prices.</p>
<p>But Bowen came to office promising to <a href="https://www.chrisbowen.net/media/media-releases-and-op-eds/powering-australia-labor-s-plan-to-create-jobs-cut-power-bills-and-reduce-emissions-by-boosting-renewable-energy/">cut power bills by $275 by 2025</a>. That deadline is not very far away.</p>
<p>Bowen made that commitment in December 2021. Very soon after, <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why-182849">electricity prices</a> shot through the roof. It’s becoming very difficult to see how the $275 cost reduction will be achieved by next year. </p>
<p>The bottom line is prices have stabilised after a couple of bad years and hopefully the worst is behind us. But, it would be a brave person who attempts to predict where they go from here. There are too many moving parts. Governments should stay the course on policies, and consumers, worried about electricity prices, should go online, compare offers, and to find the best possible deal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>In states with competition between retailers, the energy regulator is promising savings for most customers on the default plan. But it’s small change compared to price hikes. Here’s what to expect.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2054902024-02-07T19:18:15Z2024-02-07T19:18:15ZThe Nationals want renewables to stay in the cities – but the clean energy grid doesn’t work like that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573981/original/file-20240207-22-lz88mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=123%2C114%2C5762%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/green-rigg-wind-turbines-18-turbine-2052020315">Dave Head/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The bush is full up – no room for more renewables, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-to-cancel-renewable-rollout-nationals-declare-bush-is-full-20240206-p5f2sf.html">according to</a> Nationals leader David Littleproud. Instead, renewables should be restricted to large solar arrays on commercial buildings in the cities. </p>
<p>The country-focused minor party presumably hopes to capitalise on rural scepticism of large scale renewable projects – especially <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/farmer-fury-australia-signals-tough-road-renewable-energy-2023-12-12/">angst around</a> new transmission lines. On the coast, there <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/offshore-wind-protest-paddle-out-illawarra-hunter/103036846">have been protests</a> against proposed offshore wind farms. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, fencing off renewables in the cities won’t work. As our <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0253">recent research</a> on onshore wind shows, intermittent energy sources such as wind can work very well to support a modern grid – as long as we locate wind farms in different places. This ensures we can keep the lights on even if it’s dead calm in some areas. </p>
<p>Of course, rooftop solar may well stack up for households and building owners. But we will need new renewable projects in spread-out locations. Banning renewables from the bush is no solution. What we can do is make sure we’re not duplicating wind farms. Each new wind farm should be in the best possible location. </p>
<h2>The best place to build a wind farm</h2>
<p>In 2001, <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">renewables supplied</a> 8% of Australia’s energy. In 2023, they <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">supplied almost 40%</a>. </p>
<p>The federal government’s ambitious goal is to supercharge this growth and get to <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/wind-energy">82% by 2030</a>. That’s a meteoric rise, but it has to be. Climate change <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=It's%20official%3A%202023%20was%20the,a%20record%20low%20in%202023.">is accelerating</a>. </p>
<p>Decisions around where to build large renewable projects cannot be left solely to the market – or derailed by protest. </p>
<p>Renewable energy supply is variable by nature. Solar only works at daytime, hydro can be affected by drought or water shortages, and the wind doesn’t blow consistently. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-we-want-a-wind-farm-outside-our-window-what-australians-think-about-the-net-zero-transition-214712">Do we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition</a>
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<p>That’s not a deal breaker. It just means you have to have a mix of technologies – and place utility-scale farms in different places. This minimises the need for expensive or resource-dependent energy storage such as pumped hydro and batteries. </p>
<p>At present, wind makes up around a third of <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">Australia’s renewable supply</a> – about 11% of total electricity generation in the first quarter of 2023. </p>
<p>But wind blows, then stops. By itself, a wind farm can’t provide power at a consistent rate or in lockstep with demand. The power generated is at the whim of the weather and, in the longer term, climate. </p>
<p>To make wind power consistent, you have to build wind farms in different locations chosen for their unique local wind climate. </p>
<p>At present, Australia’s supply of wind farms is reasonably varied. But it could be better still. </p>
<p>We analysed over 40 years of climate data and found Australia’s currently operating wind farms could be producing around 50% more energy if they had been built in optimised locations. </p>
<p>If we had built this network of farms in an optimal way, we would have slashed how variable wind energy is. At present, the locations of current farms means year-to-year variability is around 40% higher than it could have been. </p>
<p>When we added all wind farms under construction or with planning approval, we found these inefficiencies persist. </p>
<h2>We have to get better at placing renewables</h2>
<p>Is this bad news? No. It means we can do better. And it means we can reduce the resistance emerging from some rural and regional residents, who feel their landscapes are being taken over to power far off cities. </p>
<p>Building renewable farms in sub-optimal locations is a burden on the environment, since many more farms have to be built to make up the slack, and can lead to increased energy prices for consumers. </p>
<p>Right now, the cost is masked by the fact that wind’s share in the energy market is small. But that will change. The net zero economy we are building will need wind, both onshore and, increasingly, offshore. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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<p>To build a wind farm, what usually happens is an energy company will find a landowner who agrees to having a farm on their land in exchange for regular rent. The company then <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/advocacy-initiatives/community-engagement/wind-best-practice-implementation-guidelines.pdf">seeks government approvals</a>. </p>
<p>To approve a site for a wind farm, government agencies have to assess many things. How close is it to wetlands home to rare birds? Is the wind resource good enough? To figure out the quality of the wind, regulators usually take measurements at the site and look at historic data. Usually, this pool of data only goes back a few years.</p>
<p>We could do this much better. First, wind power can vary by up to 16%, year to year. La Niña might bring strong winds to a site, while El Niño might bring the doldrums. </p>
<p>To decide on a site based on a couple of years of data means you don’t know the long term average of wind, which could be better or worse than expected. </p>
<p>Second, approvals are site-specific – we don’t compare how similar this potential wind farm will be to farms already built. That means many wind farms simply don’t meet expectations of how much extra power they can supply to the grid. </p>
<p>Once built, wind farms usually operate <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/wind-energy/essentials/">for decades</a>. If we choose inefficient locations, we’re locked in. </p>
<p>But there’s good news here for the National Party, rural residents and everyone concerned with the energy transition. We can fix this problem. </p>
<p>All it would take is one extra step for renewable developers: demonstrate how your proposed wind farm would improve electricity supply overall. That’s it. </p>
<p>And for government, make sure our planned new transmission lines increase access to high quality wind resources. </p>
<p>These two actions sound simple, but they would make a real difference. We could avoid building wind farms in sub-optimal locations, build fewer overall, and accelerate the shift to cheap clean energy. That’s something the city and country can agree on. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and is the Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s grumbling in the bush about hosting big new renewable projects to power cities. We can do this smarter.Andrew Gunn, Lecturer, Monash UniversityChristian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210182024-01-22T23:25:32Z2024-01-22T23:25:32ZHow Australia’s huge superannuation funds can do much more to fight climate change, with a little help<p>Few of us pay much attention to our superannuation. Under the <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/pay-and-wages/tax-and-superannuation#super-guarantee">Superannuation Guarantee</a>, employers pay at least 11% of salaries into their employees’ super funds without workers having to do anything.</p>
<p>These accumulating automatic payments have turned the Australian super fund industry into one of the world’s largest, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/wall-street-is-partnering-with-cashed-up-fast-growing-australian-pension-funds">the fastest-growing</a>. Worth $A3.5 trillion, our superfunds sit alongside funds from Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and United States to make up <a href="https://www.thinkingaheadinstitute.org/research-papers/global-pension-assets-study-2023/">92% of total global pension assets.</a></p>
<p>But none of these funds are investing enough in the net zero transition. Institutional investors, of which super funds are a vital part, provided less than 1% of all direct private climate change finance globally in <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023/">2021/2022</a>- a contribution of around $US6 billion. This is far from the trillions <a href="https://www.allenovery.com/en-gb/global/news-and-insights/news/new-study-reveals-usd200-trillion-of-investment-will-be-needed-to-deliver-net-zero">needed</a> every year to finance renewable energy projects, cleaner industrial processes, and replacing fossil fuels in transport, among other initiatives.</p>
<p>At the same time, many Australian funds continue to invest in carbon-producing companies, such as oil and gas, even when they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-14/sustainable-ethical-super-funds-with-fossil-fuel-investment/103196032">claim to be making “green” investments</a>.</p>
<p>This article outlines reforms the federal government could undertake to encourage super funds to tackle the climate crisis. This would help align the super system with its original purpose: to provide a better standard of living for the millions of us who will retire on a climate-damaged planet.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s sustainable finance plan</h2>
<p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers is aware of the unmet potential of super funds. Treasury’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Sustainable Finance Strategy</a>, released in November, outlines measures underway or in development to enable more sustainable investment. The <a href="https://www.asfi.org.au/taxonomy">Australian Sustainable Finance Taxonomy</a>, for example, helps investors and regulators to identify whether an investment is “green”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Making money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy</a>
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<p>Last month <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/investor-roundtable-help-modernise-economy-maximise-advantages">Chalmers held</a> an “Investor Roundtable” that brought together heads of superannuation funds and others to discuss how to scale up investment in climate change.</p>
<p>Funds expressed their intent to make more investments aligned with net zero. <a href="https://www.rightlane.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Right-Lane-Consulting_May-2023_Staying-the-course-on-net-zero.pdf">Studies</a> consistently show most large Australian funds have pledged to support net zero and established investment targets. Yet they say several regulatory roadblocks hinder them from turning their commitments into action.</p>
<p>The government has said it will make reforms on one roadblock – the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">funds’ performance-testing framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Why super funds rarely invest in clean energy</h2>
<p>Because superannuation funds are <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/word_doc/0011/4609586/MCF-submission_31032023.docx">required by law</a> to invest retirement savings for the best return for their members, they give preference to investments that offer the best financial returns with the lowest level of risk.</p>
<p>Funds see companies that are developing and deploying new technologies or operating in areas of significant public policy change as higher risk. That’s a big reason why new green technologies struggle to attract institutional capital compared to those based on fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need-220050">As Australia's net zero transition threatens to stall, rooftop solar could help provide the power we need</a>
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<p>Super funds <a href="https://igcc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IGCC-The-State-of-Australian-Net-Zero-Investment_March2023.pdf">consistently note in annual surveys</a> that the lack of green investment opportunities with the right risk-adjusted return profile is a huge barrier to exapanding climate-aligned investment. And recent legislative changes have made the situation worse.</p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/your-future-your-super-legislation-and-supporting-material">Your Super Your Future</a> scheme, announced in the 2020-21 Budget, the financial regulator for super funds evaluates funds each year by comparing their performance over an eight-year time period against one of 11 “benchmark” investment portfolios.</p>
<p>This process aims to weed out underachieving funds and to protect members from losing money. Funds that are found to underperform must disclose the fact to their members, and persistent failures cannot accept new member funds. This tough sanction has led funds to “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-04/c2022-313936-yfys-review.docx">hug the benchmark</a>”, meaning they pursue investment strategies to beat the performance test and their peers.</p>
<p>The result, as studies <a href="https://theconexusinstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/YFYS-Performance-Test-Constraint-on-ESG-Sustainability-and-Carbon-Transition-Activities-20221109-Final.pdf">show</a>, is that funds are discouraged from pursuing climate-related investments. The test encourages funds to invest in companies or projects that deliver returns over time frames that are too short for most climate-related investments to achieve returns.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>Treasury has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/your-future-your-super-review-outcomes">announced</a> it will extend the performance test period to ten years, and adjust it “to ensure that funds are not unintentionally discouraged from investing in certain assets”. These are encouraging first steps but they are not enough.</p>
<h2>Letting ordinary fund members invest in a greener planet</h2>
<p>Melbourne Climate Futures’ <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/centres/mcle/research/current-research-projects/advancing-investor-action-on-energy-transition">research</a> has uncovered further regulatory barriers that are stalling investment. One relates to the way individual members choose investments.</p>
<p>Since its establishment by the Keating government in 1992, the Superannuation Guarantee has given individuals some choice over how they handle their superannuation. While many <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/businesses-and-organisations/super-for-employers/setting-up-super-for-your-business/select-your-default-super-fund">are placed into a fund</a> with a default investment option when they begin work, they are able to choose different investment approaches.</p>
<p>Some of these focus on a theme, such as sustainability, and some offer different levels of risk exposure. Encouraging individuals to direct more of their super to green companies and projects could be a powerful tool to enable more climate investment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Surveys show <a href="https://responsibleinvestment.org/resources/benchmark-report/#:%7E:text=The%20Responsible%20Investment%20Benchmark%20Report,comprehensive%20approach%20to%20responsible%20investment.">more than half of Australians</a> support greater climate action. While many people would not support their super fund making climate investments that hurt their returns, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/super-should-go-green-but-not-for-lower-returns-say-afr-readers-20231210-p5eqcr">at least some members</a> would. Yet the rigid nature of the best-financial-interest duty, combined with the performance test, prevents funds from offering members the option to put the climate first.</p>
<p>This needs to change. The government could amend the best-financial-interest duty so individuals can instruct their funds to invest their money in projects that reduce long-term and systemic financial risks such as climate change. A tax break or a matching contribution from government could also encourage individuals to choose sustainable investment options.</p>
<p>Climate change poses a grave risk to the health, wellbeing and finances of all Australians, including retirees. Federal policy reform is urgently needed to unlock more superannuation for green investment, harness the power and preferences of individual members and help reduce future climate impacts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjuna Dibley is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development, a Board Member at CarbonPlan and Environmental Justice Australia. He is part of a research team at the University of Melbourne that receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study institutional investors and climate investing. </span></em></p>Our super funds say they want to invest more in the net zero transition but that regulation blocks them. It’s time to put them to the test, and turn their piles of money toward a greener future.Arjuna Dibley, Head of Sustainable Finance Hub, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203462023-12-29T18:38:10Z2023-12-29T18:38:10ZFour good news climate stories from 2023<p>We don’t want to give you the wrong idea: things are bad. Antarctic ice sheets are melting, the fossil fuel lobby was everywhere <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fossil-fuel-companies-won-cop28-211212">at the COP talks</a>, and even solutions like electric cars have their problems. And that just covers the past few weeks of this newsletter.</p>
<p>But to end 2023 we’d like to focus on a few of the more optimistic stories we have run over the past year. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong>This roundup of The Conversation’s 2023 climate coverage comes from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">weekly climate action newsletter</a>.</strong> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>1. We have skyscraper-sized wind turbines now</h2>
<p>Back in January, we asked Simon Hogg, executive director of Durham Energy Institute, about huge new wind turbines <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">being built in the North Sea</a></strong>. </p>
<p>These turbines, he wrote, “stand more than a quarter of a kilometre high from the surface of the sea to the highest point of the blade tip”.</p>
<p>“If you placed one in London, it would be the third-tallest structure in the city, taller than One Canada Square in Canary Wharf and just 50 metres shorter than the Shard. Each of its three blades would be longer than Big Ben’s clock tower is tall.”</p>
<p>The sheer size has some benefits: “A bigger blade extracts energy from the wind over a greater area as it rotates, which generates more electricity.” Each rotation can power an average home for two days. </p>
<p>In theory, Hogg notes, turbines could keep getting bigger and bigger. They will soon run into some practical problems though, as huge blades are harder to maintain and we are running out of ports and ships big enough for them. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, ever bigger wind turbines have been a key reason why Britain has managed to shift much of its electricity generation from <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-likely-to-generate-more-electricity-from-wind-solar-and-hydro-than-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-year-ever-in-2023-219936">fossil fuels to renewables</a> over the past decade.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">Wind turbines are already skyscraper-sized – is there any limit to how big they will get?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Solar power keeps getting cheaper and more adaptable</h2>
<p>Britain is, of course, more windy than sunny. But in much of the world, solar power is the real game changer. </p>
<p>Yet one issue with solar is that we may run out of material needed to produce silicon cells – the main sort of solar panels you see in solar farms or on rooftops. Therefore many academics are looking for alternatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of large solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=153&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=153&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567495/original/file-20231229-19-87ep5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=153&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Solar fills the horizon in Broken Hill, Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-solar-panel-farm-power-plant-2100988024">Taras Vyshnya / shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>One of these academics is David Benyon of Swansea University. In March he wrote about his new research, which involved developing “the world’s first rollable and fully printable <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/perovskite-new-type-of-solar-technology-paves-the-way-for-abundant-cheap-and-printable-cells-202579">solar cell made from perovskite</a></strong>, a material that is much less expensive to produce than silicon.” The technology is still in its early stages and needs to become more efficient but, he writes, “this points to the possibility of making cheaper solar cells on a much greater scale than ever before”.</p>
<p>Perhaps perovskite will become the new silicon, or maybe some other technology will dominate in future, but what’s clear is that solar power is fast becoming even cheaper and more accessible. The challenge for perovskite researchers, Benyon says, is to focus on “converting what’s happening in the labs into real-world devices”. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/perovskite-new-type-of-solar-technology-paves-the-way-for-abundant-cheap-and-printable-cells-202579">Perovskite: new type of solar technology paves the way for abundant, cheap and printable cells</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. On the menu: mammoth meatball</h2>
<p>Scientists recently created a meatball made of the flesh of extinct woolly mammoth. This in itself isn’t the good news: no one is proposing we fix climate change with prehistoric food. </p>
<p>But it’s proof that cellular agriculture, sometimes called “lab-grown meat”, can work. As Silvia Malagoli at Strathclyde University writes: “Lab-grown meat has the potential to offer a <strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/italy-is-set-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-heres-why-it-should-think-again-203251">much more sustainable food</a></strong> source than traditional animal farming that could also help reduce the spread of disease.”</p>
<p>This could unlock huge amounts of land for rewilding or recreation. “If scaled up, lab-grown meat would use substantially less land and water. Research finds that around 99% less land is required to produce 1kg of lab-grown meat than would have to be used by European farms to produce the same amount.”</p>
<p>Malagoli also points out that lab-grown meat wouldn’t require the same volume of antibiotics that animal farmers use to prevent the spread of disease: “Their overuse is contributing to a rise of antibiotic resistance. The United Nations estimates that, by 2050, antibiotic resistance will lead to more deaths than cancer worldwide.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/italy-is-set-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-heres-why-it-should-think-again-203251">Italy is set to ban lab-grown meat – here’s why it should think again</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Climate change tipping points can be a good thing too</h2>
<p>You’ve probably heard about the doomsday scenario of a part of the climate system – an ice sheet, perhaps, or a rainforest – suddenly passing a “tipping point” beyond which it is impossible to stop it changing into something else (perhaps barren rock or dried out savanna, respectively). The Conversation has covered these scenarios extensively over the years, most recently in a piece by authors of the major new <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-are-nearer-than-you-think-our-new-report-warns-of-catastrophic-risk-219243">tipping points report</a>. </p>
<p>But that same report also contained some positives. Climate-related technologies or social and political behaviour can also pass similar tipping points, beyond which something better becomes inevitable. Steven Smith at the University of Sussex and his colleagues wrote about these sorts of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-can-be-positive-too-our-report-sets-out-how-to-engineer-a-domino-effect-of-rapid-changes-219291">“positive” tipping points</a> which they say are “already happening, in areas ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles, to social movements and plant-based diets”.</p>
<p>Their report sets out “ways to intervene in these systems to enable positive tipping points to be triggered – for example by making the desired change the cheapest, most convenient or morally acceptable option”.</p>
<p>They say that passing one tipping point can even set off a domino effect:</p>
<p>“For example, as we cross the tipping point that sees electric vehicles become the dominant form of road transport, battery technology will continue to get better and cheaper.</p>
<p>"This could trigger another positive tipping point in the use of batteries for storing renewable energy, reinforcing another in the use of heat pumps in our homes, and so on. And there are what we call ‘super-leverage points’ – places where we can deliberately intervene with information campaigns, mandates and incentives to create widespread change across sectors.”</p>
<p>Good news then for anyone who feels like we’ve been getting nowhere with climate action despite decades of effort. Things might suddenly look very different once past a certain point. As the saying almost goes, mammoth burgers are impossible until they are inevitable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-tipping-points-can-be-positive-too-our-report-sets-out-how-to-engineer-a-domino-effect-of-rapid-changes-219291">Climate 'tipping points' can be positive too – our report sets out how to engineer a domino effect of rapid changes</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Including a positive way to think about tipping points.Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187062023-11-29T19:17:52Z2023-11-29T19:17:52ZWhat is a ‘just’ transition to net zero - and why is Australia struggling to get there?<p>Australia’s net-zero transition is struggling. Despite the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">efforts</a>, announced last week, to revive flagging investment in renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions from existing industry are still <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/time-is-running-out-to-reach-our-emissions-target-and-our-path-needs-changing/">rising</a>. Yet under the Paris Agreement, Australia must adopt <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">even more ambitious targets</a> for 2035.</p>
<p>At the same time, governments in Australia and overseas are facing <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">rising community opposition</a> to the rollout of clean energy infrastructure needed for a net zero transition. Such opposition is being <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-for-germany-heat-pump-election-climate-change/">exploited by right-wing parties</a> for electoral gain.</p>
<p>But that pressure only underscores what the Australian government must do. To lift its climate game, it needs a mission-oriented, whole-of-government approach, built on what is known as a “<a href="https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/what-just-transition-and-why-it-important">just transition</a>”.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The two main elements of a just transition</h2>
<p>A just transition requires both <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">distributive justice</a> and procedural justice. Distributive justice means policies that ensure a fair distribution of the economic burdens and benefits of the climate transition, along with protections for low-income people.</p>
<p>Procedural justice includes – but goes beyond – engaging with workers directly impacted by the decline of fossil fuel production. It means going beyond engagement with stakeholders that mainly represent incumbent industries.</p>
<p>A just transition would give all of Australia’s communities a chance to not only take part in discussions about the costs and benefits of different approaches to net zero, but also to have a say in designing climate policies that directly affect them.</p>
<p>The success of the net zero transition may depend on the government’s willingness to use the expertise of local communities in finding solutions for the lands and waters they know best.</p>
<p>The Labor government <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/net-zero-authority-gives-more-australians-a-chance-to-prosper-from-renewables">signed</a> the <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230313132211/https://ukcop26.org/supporting-the-conditions-for-a-just-transition-internationally/">Just Transition Declaration</a> at last year’s <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop27">COP27 global climate summit</a> at Sharm el-Sheikh. The declaration spells out this idea in its second principle:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the development of effective, nationally coherent, locally driven and delivered just transition plans within countries is dependent on effective and inclusive social dialogue.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet the Albanese government’s net-zero strategy has no explicit commitment to a just transition. Instead, its piecemeal strategy lacks integration and avoids tackling the essential phase-out of fossil fuels.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how-217778">How could Australia actually get to net zero? Here's how</a>
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<h2>Many government bodies – but is there a plan?</h2>
<p>In May the government announced it would establish a statutory <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/new-national-net-zero-authority">Net Zero Authority</a> “to ensure the workers, industries and communities that have powered Australia for generations can seize the opportunities of Australia’s net zero transformation.”</p>
<p>The authority is expected to “help investors and companies to engage with net zero transformation opportunities,” to help regions and communities attract new investment in clean energy, and to assist workers in the transition away from emissions-intensive industries.</p>
<p>To design the legislation to create the Net Zero Authority and to “immediately kick-start” its work, in July the government set up an interim body known as the <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency">Net Zero Economic Agency</a>, located in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.</p>
<p>The agency is chaired by former Labor climate change minister Greg Combet and supported by a ten-member <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/appointment-net-zero-economy-agency-and-advisory-board">advisory board</a>. The mining industry and mining unions are well represented, holding three seats. However, many key stakeholders, including environmental and climate NGOs and the social welfare sector, are not represented.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate minister Chris Bowen has established a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-delivering-australias-climate-and-energy-transformation">Net Zero Taskforce</a> in the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water to advise on the 2035 emissions reduction target and the plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Guided by the advice of the Climate Change Authority, the taskforce will develop <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">six sectoral decarbonisation plans</a> in:</p>
<ul>
<li>electricity and energy</li>
<li>industry</li>
<li>resources</li>
<li>the built environment</li>
<li>agriculture and land</li>
<li>transport.</li>
</ul>
<p>How the work of all these bodies fits together is unclear. An overarching Net Zero National Cabinet Committee, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">as suggested</a> by the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, could provide the necessary coordination, as long as it is guided by an integrated strategy for a net zero just transition.</p>
<p>Yet a just transition is not mentioned on government websites relating to the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">interim agency</a> and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">taskforce</a>, other than to say that they will engage with communities, industry, First Nations, and unions, with an emphasis on affected workers in regions. There is no earmarked funding, institutional innovation, or capacity building to enable inclusive dialogues across communities and society.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>Lessons in dialogue at home and overseas</h2>
<p>The Net Zero Authority is well positioned to coordinate and fund such dialogues, which are best approached from a perspective geared towards <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2108365">systemic change</a>.</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/">Sydney Policy Lab</a> has found in its community “listening campaign” on the climate transition in <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-policy-lab/research-and-policy/real-deal.html">Geelong</a>, the authority’s transition planning will lack support if it ignores the issues (such as secure housing and affordable living) communities most worry about.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Such approaches have already met with considerable success elsewhere. In Denmark, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">an OECD study</a> found social dialogues have been a significant factor in the country’s successful transition to wind power. It now accounts for <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-power-meets-and-beats-denmarks-total-electricity-demand-two-days-in-a-row/">a major share</a> of Denmark’s energy output.</p>
<p>And in Sweden, the government’s Innovation Agency, <a href="https://rri-tools.eu/-/designing-missions-mission-oriented-innovation-in-sweden-a-practice-guide-by-vinnova#:%7E:text=SUMMARY&text=This%20book%20describes%20how%20Vinnova,developed%20by%20Vinnova%20in%20detail">Vinnova</a>, has recently developed highly collaborative processes for redesigning energy, food and other systems to achieve net zero and other goals.</p>
<p>Far from slowing the transition, a commitment to inclusive dialogue will secure it by building the social license for change, while ensuring some measure of accountability for the injustices of the fossil fuel era.</p>
<p>The more inclusive the dialogue, the better the government will be able to minimise political backlash as decarbonisation accelerates.</p>
<h2>A national net zero summit</h2>
<p>To reach these outcomes will need significant coordination between federal, state and local governments, and across government departments.</p>
<p>To jumpstart this process, and building on the success of <a href="https://nexteconomy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/TNE-CQ-Energy-Futures-Report-02_0601.pdf">regional summits</a>, a national summit should be convened to explore the perspectives and initiatives of a wide range of stakeholders. That means not just unions and workers (as important as they may be) but also climate and energy NGOs, local governments and historically marginalised communities.</p>
<p>A net zero summit would place the perspectives of policy elites and incumbent interests in dialogue with the diverse demands of citizens. It must include Indigenous communities, on whose lands much of the renewable energy infrastructure is likely to be built and critical minerals likely to be extracted.</p>
<p>Debate at the summit cannot be perfunctory. It must provide ample space for many voices. The goal is to discover, propose and fund a net zero transition in ways that don’t unduly privilege the needs of investors and companies, but instead champion the wisdom and solutions of local communities.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Eckersley has received research funding in the past from the Australian Research Council and she currently hold a research grant with the Research Council of Norway. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Fitz-Henry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s clean energy transition cannot succeed unless the government opens debate and decision-making to many more voices.Robyn Eckersley, Redmond Barry Professor of Political Science, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of MelbourneErin Fitz-Henry, Senior Lecturer in Anthropology, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175962023-11-21T16:54:43Z2023-11-21T16:54:43ZSails and satellite navigation could cut shipping industry’s emissions by up to a third<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560751/original/file-20231121-3914-abgr8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1174%2C880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cargo vessel with Flettner rotors – a modern equivalent to sails.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norsepower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the vast expanse of the world’s oceans, a transformation is underway.</p>
<p>The international shipping sector, made up of thousands of massive cargo ships laden with many of the goods we buy, emits carbon dioxide (CO₂) roughly equivalent to the entire country of <a href="https://shorturl.at/dfipW">Germany</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1991876">research</a> emphasises the
need for immediate action. Reducing shipping emissions by 34% by 2030 is necessary to stay on course with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. But with low-carbon fuel pipelines unlikely to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-fuels-in-shipping-face-major-challenges-for-2050-net-zero-target-211797">available</a> at the necessary scale until at least the 2030s, how can the industry meet its short-term target?</p>
<p>Enter a new solution with ancient origins: sails. Not the billowing canvases of centuries past but high-tech systems capable of harnessing renewable wind energy to supplement the propulsion from a ship’s engine. </p>
<p>A number of advanced sail designs are gaining the attention of shipping firms. Two contenders include Flettner rotors, cylinders that spin to generate propulsion, and “wingsails”, which resemble aeroplane wings and are derived from designs used in yacht racing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A concept image of a cargo vessel fitted with six vertical wingsails." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560752/original/file-20231121-15-ya9i3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wingsails, analogous to aeroplane wings, provide lift on either side.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Smart Green Shipping</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wind propulsion allows ships to use less fuel and so emit less greenhouse gas. However, in our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.116065">new paper</a>, we found that the real opportunity to slash emissions from shipping this decade lies in combining sails with optimal routes plotted by satellite navigation systems.</p>
<h2>An old idea with new technology</h2>
<p>Optimised routing is a familiar concept to most of us. You’ll have used it by typing a destination into Google Maps and allowing its algorithms to calculate the quickest way for you to arrive at your destination.</p>
<p>The process is similar for ships. But instead of finding the quickest journey, the software models the ship’s performance in water to calculate routes and speeds that minimise fuel use.</p>
<p>With optimised routing and sails, ships can deviate from their standard course to seek out favourable winds. The ship may travel a longer distance but the extra power gained by the sails limits the ship’s fuel consumption and reduces the total emissions over the full journey. The software only suggests routes that guarantee the same arrival time, keeping the ship to its original schedule.</p>
<p>We used a computer model simulation of a cargo vessel with four sails, each taller than Brazil’s Christ the Redeemer statue at 35 meters high. By calculating the fuel consumption of this large bulk carrier ship on over 100,000 journeys spanning four years and covering 14 shipping routes worldwide, we found that sails can cut annual carbon emissions by around 10%.</p>
<p>The true promise of sails unfolds when optimal routing is used, increasing annual emission cuts to 17%.</p>
<p>Routes with ideal wind conditions have even greater potential. The most promising are typically those far from the equator, such as transatlantic and transpacific crossings, where strong winds can fill large sails. By taking advantage of wind patterns moving across the ocean on these routes, sails and optimised routing can cut annual emissions by over 30%.</p>
<p>Take the journey between the UK and the US as an example. A ship setting out on this voyage will typically experience strong headwinds which generate drag and push the ship backwards, meaning more fuel must be burned to maintain the same forward momentum. But by using sails and optimised routing software on this crossing, ships can avoid these headwinds and steer into more favourable winds.</p>
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<img alt="A cargo vessel with two cylinders rising from the deck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560755/original/file-20231121-19-2ehoom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flettner rotors are smooth cylinders with discs that spin as wind passes at right angles across it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Norsepower</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the return journey, the ship would typically experience strong winds from behind and the side, which would fill the sails and push the ship on. With optimised routing software the ship can find even stronger winds and fine-tune its direction for the sails to maximise propulsion.</p>
<h2>Keeping the 1.5°C target afloat</h2>
<p>The International Maritime Organization (the UN agency responsible for environmental regulation in shipping) has a <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/2023-IMO-Strategy-on-Reduction-of-GHG-Emissions-from-Ships.aspx#:%7E:text=The%25202023%2520IMO%2520GHG%2520Strategy%2520envisages%252C%2520in%2520particular%252C%2520a%2520reduction,at%2520least%252040%2525%2520by%25202030.">target</a> of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 20%-30% by 2030. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target <a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-must-accelerate-its-decarbonisation-efforts-and-now-it-has-the-opportunity-to-do-so-195222">requires even deeper cuts</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-emissions-must-fall-by-a-third-by-2030-and-reach-zero-before-2050-new-research-167830">Shipping emissions must fall by a third by 2030 and reach zero before 2050 – new research</a>
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<p>Our research shows that cuts to CO₂ of this magnitude are possible this decade using wind propulsion and optimised routing on promising routes. Achieving this will oblige the shipping industry to deploy existing technologies and practices and shift its focus from fuel alone, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-fuels-in-shipping-face-major-challenges-for-2050-net-zero-target-211797">zero-carbon fuels</a> will take longer to develop.</p>
<p>As we sail further into the 21st century, our research delivers a clear message to the shipping industry: substantial carbon reductions are feasible this decade. Here is an old idea, one that integrates technology with tradition, that can steer international shipping towards its climate goals.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Mason works for Smart Green Shipping, a company which manufactures aluminium wingsails for cargo ships. He has received funding from the UK research council EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Larkin has received funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Bullock has received funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p>Modern mariners can harness trade winds to reduce carbon emissions.James Mason, Visiting Academic in Decarbonisation, University of ManchesterAlice Larkin, Professor of Climate Science and Energy Policy, University of ManchesterSimon Bullock, Research Associate, Shipping and Climate Change, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168912023-11-02T19:14:00Z2023-11-02T19:14:00ZIs nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?<p>In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”.</p>
<p>Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>?</p>
<p>For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion.</p>
<p>Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2>
<p>There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. </p>
<p>Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades.</p>
<p>By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure.</p>
<p><a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains.</p>
<p>In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices.</p>
<h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high.</p>
<p>But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p>Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear.</p>
<p>The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour.</p>
<p>In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear.</p>
<h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2>
<p>Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law.</p>
<p>Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards.</p>
<p>In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete.</p>
<p>Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2>
<p>Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. </p>
<p>A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world.</p>
<p>Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal?">economically insane</a>”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reuben Finighan is a research fellow at the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>When Australia’s government and opposition argue over how to get to net zero emissions, nuclear power is the flashpoint. The argument against nuclear is stronger, but not for the obvious reason.Reuben Finighan, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163732023-10-29T19:12:04Z2023-10-29T19:12:04ZAustralia’s new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions<p>Australia has three ways it can help reduce world greenhouse emissions, the only reduction that matters in tackling climate change.</p>
<p>First, we can remove emissions from our economy. This will reduce global emissions <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">by just 1.3%</a>, but it must be done so we share the transition burden with other countries. </p>
<p>Second, we can stop approving new coal and gas projects, which will raise the cost of these products and so reduce world demand for them to some extent. This would have an important demonstration effect, although the reduction in world emissions may be less than some advocates think.</p>
<p>Third, we can quickly pursue industries in which Australia has a clear comparative advantage in a net-zero world. Of any country, Australia is probably best placed to produce <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6BLjjTW694&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29">green iron</a> and other minerals that require energy-intensive processing, as well as <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/september/sustainable-aviation-fuel">green transport fuels</a>, <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7985444/good-to-go-green-with-green-urea/">urea</a> for fertiliser, and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/australia-s-green-energy-future-can-maximise-global-decarbonisation-20230906-p5e2c1">polysilicon</a> for solar panels.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Australia’s huge green industry opportunity</h2>
<p>Of these three ways, by far the least public discussion is on the third: producing energy-intensive green exports. Yet these industries could reduce world emissions by as much as 6–9%, easily Australia’s largest contribution to the global effort. And it would transform our economy, turning Australia into a green energy superpower.</p>
<p>Australia produces <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/data-insights/iron-ore-in-australia-2/#:%7E:text=Australia%20accounts%20for%2038%25%20of,share%20being%20exported%20to%20China.">almost 40%</a> of the world’s iron ore. Turning iron ore into metallic iron accounts <a href="https://research.csiro.au/tnz/low-emissions-steel/#:%7E:text=Australia%20produces%20almost%20half%20of,global%20green%20house%20gas%20emissions.">for 7% of global emissions</a>. Our iron ore is largely processed overseas, often using Australian coal, which can be exported cheaply. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>In the net-zero world, iron ore can be reduced to iron metal <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm#:%7E:text=The%20magic%20of%20hydrogen%20is,natural%20gas%20instead%20of%20hydrogen.">using green hydrogen</a> rather than coal. Considerable renewable energy will be needed, yet renewable energy and hydrogen are very expensive to export. </p>
<p>Therefore, rather than export ore, renewable energy and hydrogen, it makes economic sense to process our iron in Australia, before shipping it overseas. Doing so would reduce global emissions by around 3%.</p>
<p>Likewise, turning Australia’s bauxite <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/green-steel-and-aluminium-production-within-reach/">into green aluminium</a> using low-cost renewable energy could reduce world emissions by around 1%. Making polysilicon is also energy-intensive, so again Australia is a natural home for its production. And Australian low-cost green hydrogen plus sustainable carbon from <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/bioenergy/">biomass</a> are needed for making green urea and transport fuels. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<h2>From gas and coal power to clean power</h2>
<p>Australia is the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/new-analysis-australia-ranks-third-for-fossil-fuel-export/">world’s largest exporter of gas and coal taken together</a>. Some analysts focus on the costs of losing this large comparative advantage as the world responds to climate change. They overlook two key points. </p>
<p>First, Australia has the world’s best combination of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/wind-energy">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/solar-energy">solar</a> energy resources, and enormous sources of biomass for a zero-emissions chemical industry. </p>
<p>Second, we have abundant and much-needed minerals that require huge amounts of energy to process. The high cost of <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/can-we-export-renewable-energy/">exporting renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/opinion-does-it-make-financial-sense-to-export-green-hydrogen-derived-ammonia-around-the-world-/2-1-1325336">hydrogen</a> makes it economically logical for these industries to be located near the energy source. </p>
<p>In other words, more of Australia’s minerals and other energy-intensive products should now be processed in Australia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>If Australia seizes this opportunity it can repeat the experience of the <a href="https://aus.thechinastory.org/archive/economics-and-the-china-resources-boom/#:%7E:text=For%20China%2C%20resources%20remain%20the,of%20trade%20surplus%20with%20China.">China resources boom</a> of around ten years ago, but this time the opportunity can be sustained, not boom and bust, with benefits spread over more regions and people.</p>
<p>Some of the actions governments must take to achieve the 6–9% reduction in world emissions will also help to decarbonise our economy. We must develop the skills we need, support well-staffed government bodies to provide efficient approvals for new mines and processes, build infrastructure that will often be far from the east coast electricity grid, and maintain open trade for imports and exports. </p>
<h2>What government must do</h2>
<p>But we also need policy changes to give private investors assistance to bridge the current <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-it-will-cost-320b-to-ditch-coal-in-three-maps-and-a-chart-20220608-p5as3t">cost gap between green and black products</a> (meaning ones made by clean or by fossil fuel energy) in these new industries, and to help early movers. </p>
<p>If we help companies to produce these products at scale, costs will fall as processes are streamlined and technology improves. Capital grants for early movers are an option, but more work is needed to determine the best forms of support.</p>
<p>Let’s make a distinction between energy-intensive green products and mining. While Australia should mine the energy transition minerals the world needs – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths – mining does not need the financial incentives just cited. Critical minerals are used in black as well as green products and Australia already has significant expertise in mining. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>Some will argue Australia can wait until other countries have proven the technology and scaled up production so that the green-black price gap disappears; these new green industries will end up in Australia anyway because of our strong comparative advantage. This complacent argument has many flaws.</p>
<p>Australia is making decisions on its climate and economic direction now. If we do not focus on industries in which we have sustainable advantages we will end up damaging our prosperity. For example, we might pursue labour intensive industries that will be low margin and pay low wages, when other countries are better locations for them.</p>
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<p>Second, while technology breakthroughs will be shared internationally, innovation is often about streamlining processes to suit local conditions. If we learn these lessons in Australia, we can achieve lowest-cost world production. If not, these industries could permanently locate elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The need for speed</h2>
<p>Most importantly, Australia needs to move now to put in place the incentives set out above. No other nation that has the capacity to make these energy intensive green products at scale seems focused on the task. If Australia does not do it, the reduction in world emissions could be seriously delayed. </p>
<p>Of all countries, Australia is best placed to show the world what is possible. Companies and countries using conventionally made steel today can say they want to use green iron but none is available. Let’s deny them that excuse.</p>
<p>Once the large investment, productivity and prosperity benefits of this agenda are properly explained, all Australians will applaud it. </p>
<p>What’s more, the level of renewable energy required by the transition will see our power prices fall to some of the lowest in the world.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-economists-call-for-a-carbon-price-a-tax-on-coal-exports-and-green-tariffs-to-get-australia-on-the-path-to-net-zero-216428">Worried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and 'green tariffs' to get Australia on the path to net zero</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Sims is also Chair of the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>Australia has a massive opportunity to reduce global emissions by as much as 9%, all while renewing its heavy industries and economy. But to seize the opportunity, government needs to move fast.Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138642023-10-25T19:10:36Z2023-10-25T19:10:36ZBeyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land<p><a href="https://nntc.com.au/news_latest/the-net-zero-2060-goal-will-need-to-rely-on-australias-indigenous-estate-says-new-findings/">Many</a> of the big wind and solar farms planned to help Australia achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will be built on the lands and waters of First Nations peoples. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00994-6">More than half</a> of the projects that will extract critical minerals to drive the global clean energy transition overlap with Indigenous-held lands.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara">Pilbara</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberley_(Western_Australia)">Kimberley</a> regions have high rates of Indigenous land tenure, while hosting some of world’s best co-located solar and wind energy resources. Such abundance presents big opportunities for energy exports, <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-dirt-yellow-sun-green-steel-how-australia-could-benefit-from-a-global-shift-to-emissions-free-steel-179286">green steel</a> and <a href="https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/reimagining-energy/decarbonizing-australias-energy-system/renewable-energy-hub-in-australia.html">zero carbon products</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/may/17/who-owns-australia">Almost 60% of Australia</a> is subject to some level of First Nations’ rights and interests, including exclusive possession rights (akin to freehold) over a quarter of the continent. So the stakes for all players are high.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In 2020, after news Rio Tinto had <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/trending-topics/inquiry-into-juukan-gorge#:%7E:text=In%20May%202020%2C%20we%20destroyed,on%20which%20our%20business%20operates.">legally destroyed</a> the sacred Juukan Gorge rock shelter in order to gain access to more than $100 million worth of iron ore, we wrote an <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aboriginal-people-have-little-say-over-energy-projects-on-their-land-139119">article</a> questioning how much legal say First Nations people would have over massive new wind and solar farms planned for their Country. We asked whether the move to a zero-carbon economy “would be a just transition for First Nations?”</p>
<h2>The long but hopeful journey back from Juukan Gorge</h2>
<p>Much has happened in the past three years, and while more needs to be done, some signs are promising.</p>
<p>First, the furore and subsequent parliamentary <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/reporting/obligations/government-responses/destruction-of-juukan-gorge">inquiry</a> following the Juukan Gorge incident forced the resignation of <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/rio-tinto-ceo-top-executives-resign-amid-cave-blast-crisis/">Rio Tinto boss</a> Jean-Sebastien Jacques. Companies were put on notice that they can no longer run roughshod over First Nations communities. <a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">Research in progress</a> indicates the clean energy industry <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/kane-thornton-opening-address-to-the-australian-clean-energy-summit">has heard</a> this message. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<p>Second, in 2021 the <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au">First Nations Clean Energy Network</a> – a group of prominent First Nations community organisers, lawyers, engineers and financial experts – was created and began to undertake significant advocacy work with governments and industry. </p>
<p>The network has released several <a href="https://www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/network_guides">useful guides</a> on best practice on First Peoples’ Country. Again, <a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">research</a> indicates the clean energy industry is paying attention to the work of the network. </p>
<p>Third, there is a question whether the <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/about-native-title">Native Title Act</a> allows large-scale clean energy developments to go ahead without native title holders’ permission. We are increasingly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629621003455">convinced</a> the only way such developments will <a href="https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2022/5/WP_143_Maynard.pdf">gain approval</a> through the Native Title Act is through an <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/ILUAs/Pages/default.aspx#:%7E:text=What%20is%20an%20ILUA%3F,least%20part%20of%20the%20area">Indigenous Land Use Agreement</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>Moreover, <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/fncen/pages/326/attachments/original/1692660875/Queensland_policy_overview_-_First_Nations_and_Clean_Energy_Aug_2023.pdf?1692660875">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/diversification-leases">Western Australia</a> have both implemented policies and South Australia is developing <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/lz?path=/b/current/hydrogen%20and%20renewable%20energy%20bill%202023">legislation</a> that make it clear these states will require renewable energy developers to negotiate an agreement with First Nations land holders. Because these agreements are voluntary, native title holders can refuse to allow large wind and solar farms on their Country.</p>
<p>As always, these decisions come with caveats. Governments can compulsorily acquire land, and many of the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19452829.2021.1901670">power imbalances</a> we observed in our earlier article persist. These include the power corporations have – unlike most Indigenous communities – to employ independent legal and technical advice about proposed projects, and to easily access finance when a community would like to develop a project itself.</p>
<h2>Promising partnerships on the road to net zero</h2>
<p>Are First Nations peoples refusing to have wind and solar projects on their land? No, they are not. Many significant proposed projects announced in the last few years show huge promise in terms of First Nations ownership and control.</p>
<p>In Western Australia the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-17/yindjibarndi-to-use-exclusive-native-title-land-for-renewables/102609826">partnership</a> between Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation and renewable energy company ACEN plans to build three gigawatts of solar and wind infrastructure on Yindjibarndi exclusive possession native title. Mirning traditional owners hold equity stakes in one of the largest green energy projects in the world, the massive <a href="https://wgeh.com.au/mirning#:%7E:text=The%20WA%20Mirning%20People%20are,transcontinental%20lines%20in%20the%20North.">Western Green Energy Hub</a> located on their lands in the great Australian Bight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Further north, Balanggarra traditional owners, the MG Corporation and the Kimberley Land Council have together announced a landmark East Kimberley Clean Energy <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/aboriginal-backing-for-3b-kimberley-hydrogen-project-20230717-p5dovg">project</a> aimed at producing green hydrogen and ammonia for export. </p>
<p>Across the border in the Northern Territory, Larrakia Nation and the Jawoyn Association have created Desert Springs Octopus, a majority Indigenous-owned <a href="https://octopusinvestments.com.au/insights/desert-springs-octopus-announces-new-renewable-energy-agreement/">company</a> backed by Octopus Australia. </p>
<p>Still, much more needs to happen to provide Indigenous communities with proper consent and control. In its 2023 <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook%20Labor%20Government/Milestone-new-legislation-helps-cut-red-tape-20230810#:%7E:text=The%20amendments%20which%20deliver%20a,Act%202023(the%20Act).">amendments</a> to allow for renewable energy projects on pastoral leases, the Western Australian government could have given native title holders more control but it chose not to. And much needed reforms to cultural heritage laws in WA were scrapped following <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-10/roger-cook-leadership-aboriginal-cultural-heritage-act/102706694?utm_campaign=newsweb-article-new-share-null&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web">a backlash from farmers</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>In New South Wales, some clean energy developers seem to be avoiding Aboriginal lands, perhaps because they think it will be easier to negotiate with individual landholders. The result is lost <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/fncen/pages/232/attachments/original/1685504567/Norman_Briggs_Apolonio_Discussionpaper_012023.pdf?1685504567">opportunities for partnership</a>, much needed <a href="https://arena.org.au/first-nations-environmental-work/">know-how</a> and <a href="https://soundcloud.com/solarinsiders/the-power-of-putting-first-nations-first?utm_source=clipboard&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=widget&utm_content=https%253A%252F%252Fsoundcloud.com%252Fsolarinsiders%252Fthe-power-of-putting-first-nations-first">mutual benefit</a>. </p>
<p>In the case of critical mineral deposits on or near lands subject to First Nations’ title, <a href="https://nit.com.au/11-04-2023/5559/the-practical-effect-of-an-indigenous-voice-the-case-of-critical-minerals">not nearly enough</a> has been done to ensure these communities will benefit from their extraction.</p>
<h2>Why free, prior and informed consent is crucial</h2>
<p>To ensure the net zero transition is just, First Nations must be guaranteed “free, prior and informed consent” to any renewable energy or critical mineral project proposed for their lands and waters, as <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">the UN Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a> makes clear.</p>
<p>So long as governments can compulsorily acquire native title to expedite a renewable energy project and miners are allowed to mine critical minerals (or any mineral) without native title holders’ consent, the net zero transition will transgress this internationally recognised right. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth government has agreed in principle with the recommendations of the Juukan Gorge inquiry to review native title legislation to address inequalities in the position of First Nations peoples when they are negotiating <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/australian-response-to-destruction-of-juukan-gorge.pdf">access to their lands and waters</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>The meaningful participation of First Nations rights holders is critical to de-risking clean energy projects. Communities must decide the forms participation takes – full or part ownership, leasing and so on – after they have properly assessed their options. Rapid electrification through wind and solar developments cannot <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/ark-energy-halves-size-of-queensland-wind-farm-but-doubles-size-of-turbines/">come</a> at the expense of land clearing and loss of biodiversity. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.atns.net.au/climate-repair-project">Ongoing research</a> highlights that when negotiating land access for these projects, First Nations people are putting protection of the environment first when negotiating the footprint of these developments. That’s good news for all Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ganur Maynard was formerly a member of the steering committee of the First Nations Clean Energy Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Riley, Janet Hunt, and Lily O'Neill do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s road to net zero must pass through Indigenous-held land, which is likely to host many clean energy projects. First Nations people want partnerships that help them protect their Country.Lily O'Neill, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneBrad Riley, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityGanur Maynard, Indigenous Knowledge Holder, Indigenous KnowledgeJanet Hunt, Honorary Associate Professor, CAEPR, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138632023-10-22T19:01:21Z2023-10-22T19:01:21ZHow to beat ‘rollout rage’: the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia<p>In August, Victoria’s Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">made a decision</a> that could set a difficult precedent for Australia’s effort to get to net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>In considering the environmental effects of the proposed $1 billion <a href="https://www.willatookwindfarm.com.au/">Willatook wind farm</a> 20km north of Port Fairy in southwest Victoria, the minister ruled that the developers, <a href="https://windprospect.com.au/">Wind Prospect</a>, had to build wider buffers around the wind turbines and observe a five-month ban on work at the site over each of the two years of construction. </p>
<p>Her reason? To protect the wetlands and breeding season of the <a href="https://www.wildlife.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/91383/Brolga.pdf">brolga</a>, a native crane and a threatened species, and the habitat of the critically endangered <a href="https://www.environment.vic.gov.au/conserving-threatened-species/threatened-species/southern-bent-wing-bat">southern bent-wing bat</a>. </p>
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<p>The decision shocked many clean energy developers. Wind Prospect’s managing director Ben Purcell said the conditions imposed by the minister would reduce the planned number of 59 turbines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">by two-thirds</a> and make the project “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-08-04/willatook-wind-farm-proposal-doubt-government-recommendations/102691028">totally unworkable</a>”. </p>
<p>Kilkenny acknowledged that <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/environmental-assessments/browse-projects/willatook-wind-farm">her assessment</a> might reduce the project’s energy output. However, she said “while the transition to renewable energy generation is an important policy and legislative priority for Victoria”, so was “protection of declining biodiversity values”.</p>
<p>The military uses the term “blue on blue” for casualties from friendly fire. In the environmental arena we now risk “green on green” losses, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Intelligencer%20-%20August%208%2C%202023&utm_term=Subscription%20List%20-%20Daily%20Intelligencer%20%281%20Year%29">and agonising dilemmas</a> as governments try to reconcile their responses to the world’s two biggest environmental problems: climate change and biodiversity loss. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair-214064">The human factor: why Australia's net zero transition risks failing unless it is fair</a>
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<h2>The green vs green dilemma</h2>
<p>The goal of achieving net zero by 2050 requires nothing less than an economic and social transformation. That includes extensive construction of wind and solar farms, transmission lines, pumped hydro, critical mineral mines and more. </p>
<p>Australia needs to move fast – the Australian Energy Market Operator says <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/aemo-maps-10,000km-of-high-voltage-transmission/102833156">10,000km of high-voltage transmission lines</a> need to be built to support the clean energy transition – but we are already <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/the-energy-transition-gridlocked-regulators-have-no-answers-20231009-p5eapd">lagging badly</a>. </p>
<p>The problem is that moving fast inflames what is often fierce opposition from local communities. They are especially concerned with the environmental impacts of vast electricity towers and lines running across land they love. </p>
<p>In southern New South Wales, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">organised groups are fighting to stop</a> the construction of a huge infrastructure project, <a href="https://www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/humelink">HumeLink</a>, that seeks to build 360km of transmission lines to connect <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">Snowy Hydro 2.0</a> and other renewable energy projects to the electricity grid. </p>
<p>Locals say the cities will get the power, while they pay the price. “No one should minimise the consequences of ‘industrialising’ Australia’s iconic locations – would we build power lines above Bondi Beach?” <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/trandgrids-humelink-the-anguish-and-anger-behind-australias-clean-energy-plan/news-story/2a64de7aaffcd3462adaff39c9f5d485">the Snowy Valleys Council asked</a> in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Clean energy developers are caught in a perfect storm, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/michelle-grattan-uphill-road-angry-locals-renewables/102887426">at loggerheads with environmentalists and landholders alike</a> over environmental conditions, proper consultation and compensation, while grappling with long regulatory delays and supply chain blockages for their materials. </p>
<p>They see a system that provides environmental approval on paper but seemingly unworkable conditions and intolerable delays in practice. Does the bureaucracy’s left hand, they wonder, know what its right hand is doing?</p>
<p>Net zero, nature protection and “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/rollout-rage-power-struggle-and-a-shocked-minister/news-story/21aeebffca06cd116d6b077ca5a02624">rollout rage</a>” feel like a toxic mix. Yet we have to find a quick way to deliver the clean energy projects we urgently need. </p>
<h2>What is to be done?</h2>
<p>The major solution to climate change is to electrify everything, using 100% renewable energy. That means lots of climate-friendly infrastructure.</p>
<p>The major regulatory solution to ongoing biodiversity loss is to stop running down species and ecosystems so deeply that they cannot recover. Among other things, that means protecting sensitive areas, which are sometimes the same areas that need to be cleared, or at least impinged upon, to build new infrastructure.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<p>To get agreement, we need a better way than the standard project-based approval processes and private negotiations between developers and landowners. The underlying principle must be that all citizens, not just directly affected groups, bear the burden of advancing the common good. </p>
<p>As tough as these problems look, elements of a potential solution, at least in outline, are on the table. </p>
<p>These elements are: good environmental information, regional environmental planning and meaningful public participation. The government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nature-positive-plan.pdf">Nature Positive Plan</a> for stronger environmental laws promises all three.</p>
<h2>The Albanese government’s plan</h2>
<p>Australia lags badly in gathering and assembling essential environmental information. Without it, we are flying blind. The government has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Budget/reviews/2023-24/Environment">established Environment Information Australia</a> “to provide an authoritative source of high-quality environmental information.” Although extremely belated, it’s a start.</p>
<p>The Nature Positive Plan may also improve the second element – regional planning – by helping it deal with “green on green” disputes through <a href="https://www.kwm.com/global/en/insights/latest-thinking/federal-environmental-law-reform-what-you-need-to-know-in-2023.html#:%7E:text=Regional%20plans%20will%20be%20built,development%20will%20be%20largely%20prohibited">its proposed “traffic light” system</a> of environmental values. </p>
<p>Places with the highest environmental values (or significant Indigenous and other heritage values) would be placed in “red zones” and be protected from development, climate-friendly or not. </p>
<p>Development would be planned in orange and green zones, but require <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/animals-and-plants/biodiversity-offsets-scheme#:%7E:text=The%20Biodiversity%20Offsets%20Scheme%20is,gains%20through%20landholder%20stewardship%20agreements.">biodiversity offsets</a> in orange zones. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The catch is that most current biodiversity offsets, which commonly involve putting land into reserve to compensate for land cleared, are environmental failures. </p>
<p>The government has promised to tighten these rules, but advocates ranging from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/development-could-be-banned-in-certain-areas-amid-sweeping-recommendations-20230824-p5dz5t.html">former senior public servant Ken Henry</a> to the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/what-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-our-national-environment-laws-means-for-nature">Australian Conservation Foundation</a> are pushing for more. A strict approach would make offsets expensive and sometimes impossible to find, but that is the price of becoming nature-positive. </p>
<h2>The need for regional planning</h2>
<p>Good regional planning – based, say, on Australia’s <a href="https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/nrm-regions-map/">54 natural resource management regions</a> – would deal with a bundle of issues upfront. That approach would avoid the environmental “deaths of a thousand cuts” that occur when developments are approved one by one. </p>
<p>But regional planning will only succeed if federal and state governments allocate significant resources and work together. Australia’s record on such cooperation is a sorry one. Again, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is attempting a belated <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/regional-plans-transform-environmental-protection">fresh start</a>, but this will be a particularly rocky road.</p>
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<p>The third element – meaningful public participation – involves restoring trust in the system. This requires transparency, proper consultation, and the public’s right <a href="https://www.wilderness.org.au/news-events/epbc-act-must-enshrine-a-fair-say-for-community">to challenge decisions in the courts</a>. </p>
<p>Meaningful consultation requires time, expertise, and properly funded expert bodies that can build a culture of continuous improvement. Again, Australia’s record to date has been piecemeal and poor.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>These reforms – better information, planning and public participation – will take time. In the meantime, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle">precautionary principle</a> suggests a three-pronged approach to keeping us on track for net zero. </p>
<p>One, work proactively with developers to find infrastructure sites that avoid environmentally sensitive areas. </p>
<p>Two, speed up regulatory approvals. Fund well-resourced taskforces for both, as the gains will vastly outweigh the costs.</p>
<p>Three, be generous in compensating landowners where development is approved. Fairness comes at a cost, but unfairness will create an even higher one.</p>
<p>All this makes for a political sandwich of a certain kind. Why would government even consider it? </p>
<p>The answer lays bare the hard choice underlying modern environmental policy. We can accept some pain now, or a lot more later. The prize, though, is priceless: a clean energy system for a stable climate, and a natural environment worth passing on to future generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Burnett is a member of the Biodiversity Council, which has the object of communicating accurate information on all aspects of biodiversity to secure and restore the future of Australia’s biodiversity.</span></em></p>If Australia is to meet its net zero targets it must move fast and build massive industrial infrastructure. But those projects are provoking fierce hostility. Is there a way through the green dilemma?Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147092023-10-04T19:05:43Z2023-10-04T19:05:43ZMade in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero<p>Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p>In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/08/biden-signs-order-government-net-zero-emissions-2050">to commit the US to net zero</a> by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
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<h2>The IRA changes the landscape</h2>
<p>Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.</p>
<p>The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies</a> could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects</a> in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">create 170,000 jobs</a>, predominantly in Republican-led states.</p>
<p>The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.</p>
<p>This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.</p>
<p>Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Industrial policy to protect the climate</h2>
<p>The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.</p>
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<p>These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/a-united-front-how-the-us-and-the-eu-can-move-beyond-trade-tensions-to-counter-china/">strategic economic nationalism</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.</p>
<p>The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but <a href="https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article14567471.ece">fiercely criticised</a> its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-visits-nasa-talks-space-cooperation-us-visit-begins-2022-11-30/">super aggressive</a>” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-foreign-governments-seek-changes-us-ev-tax-rules-2022-11-08/">trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom</a> on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”</p>
<p>Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-united-states-inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-investment-threat-data/">has responded to the IRA</a> by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/how-inflation-reduction-act-changed-canada">Canada</a>, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/samsung-drives-400-billion-south-korea-plan-to-propel-key-tech?sref=wpjMCURG">South Korea</a> have announced similar programs.</p>
<h2>Why the IRA challenges Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government <a href="https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/newsroom/transforming-australia-s-critical-minerals-sector/">provided a A$1.25 billion loan</a> to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.</p>
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<p>But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green hydrogen production</a> that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/australia-energy-future#:%7E:text=Australia%20has%20vast%20amounts%20of,change%20from%20challenge%20to%20opportunity.">a clean energy superpower</a> – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">'Green steel' is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here's what the hype is all about</a>
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<p>The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>The US will be an essential market for our <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/04/05/the-energy-transition-will-need-more-rare-earth-elements-can-we-secure-them-sustainably/">rare earths</a> such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.</p>
<p>In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/onshoring-and-friend-shoring-us-ev-supply-chains-what-are-boundaries">friend-shoring</a> but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.</p>
<p>The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.” </p>
<p>A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474">Greens’ Dilemma</a>. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.</p>
<p>Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council. </span></em></p>The Biden Administration’s signature climate legislation is unleashing a wave of clean energy investment, along with some opportunities and risks for countries like Australia.Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134282023-09-19T16:04:52Z2023-09-19T16:04:52ZRenewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why<p>Wind and solar are the world’s fastest growing energy sources and together generated <a href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">12% of global electricity</a> in 2023. The amount of energy produced by <a href="https://gwec.net/globalwindreport2023/">wind</a> and <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/">solar</a> is expected to increase and accelerate.</p>
<p>Wind generated 1 terawatt (TW) for the first time <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-wind-energy-to-top-1-tw-threshold-by-the-end-of-2023/">in 2023</a> – nearly as much as the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/">total installed energy capacity</a> of the US (1.2 TW). Solar broke this threshold <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/15/humans-have-installed-1-terawatt-of-solar-capacity/">in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>So why in the first <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09_adv.pdf">global stocktake</a> of the world’s progress towards limiting warming to 1.5°C did the UN say we’re still not phasing out fossil fuels fast enough?</p>
<h2>Asia’s economic growth powered by coal</h2>
<p>Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, the most carbon-intensive forms of electricity generation, using coal and natural gas, have risen by <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/">22% and 37% since 2010</a>, respectively. Coal and gas power generation is still the backbone of global energy systems and these fuels are likely to remain dominant for decades to come. Nonetheless, the phase-out of coal (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13053040">arguably</a> the dirtiest of fossil fuels) is gaining momentum. </p>
<p>During the past decade, the number of new coal power plants built each year <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-worlds-coal-power-pipeline-has-shrunk-by-three-quarters/">has fallen fast</a>. Global coal demand has continued to fall even as the war in <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/91982b4e-26dc-41d5-88b1-4c47ea436882/Coal2022.pdf">Ukraine strained gas supplies</a>.</p>
<p>In the most prosperous OECD countries (or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), virtually no new coal plants are <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">planned or being built</a>, though <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/11/albanese-government-approves-first-new-coal-mine-since-taking-power">new coal mines</a> are still being approved. This is a result of national <a href="https://beyondfossilfuels.org/europes-coal-exit/">policies</a> such as the UK’s decision to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024">ban coal in power generation</a> from October 2024.</p>
<p>The US has retired many ageing coal plants since the mid-2010s due to the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1641462">low price of shale gas</a>. The country’s coal fleet will continue to shrink as 99% of coal projects are <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Coal-Cost-Crossover-3.0-One-Pager.pdf">more expensive</a> than new clean energy, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of wind turbines on a desert plain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549084/original/file-20230919-17-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increasingly cheap renewables are finally biting into fossil generation in the US.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-turbine-farm-on-desert-land-1994218223">Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This picture is very different in Asia. Here, countries have relied heavily on cheap coal to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Cheap-coal-swells-in-Southeast-Asia-foiling-global-green-push">fuel their economies</a>. This is particularly true in China. After adding 27 gigawatts (GW) from coal <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">in 2022 alone</a>, China by itself is offsetting the retirement of coal plants elsewhere in the world.</p>
<p>But there are some signs this is changing. The global pipeline for new coal power plants is <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Boom-Bust-Coal-2023.pdf">smaller than ever</a> and China and India both pledged to “<a href="https://on.ft.com/45Sh8gL">phase down coal</a>” in 2021 at the Glasgow climate summit.</p>
<p>So, rapidly increasing renewable energy hasn’t cut coal and gas consumption at the same rate because humankind is using a lot more electricity than we used to, especially in Asia. In the last 20 years, the use of electricity in Europe and North America has remained largely constant. </p>
<p>Here, renewable energy has slowly eaten into the proportion of energy generated by fossil fuels, while all other energy sources (nuclear, hydro, biomass) have remained about the same. In Asia, electricity demand has <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/southeast-asia-growth-energy-security/">tripled since the 2000s</a>, with the bulk of this energy coming from fossil fuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line graph showing the proportion of energy generated by different sources in Europe, North America and Asia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548593/original/file-20230915-27-ethhrq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuels remain dominant sources of energy in all regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2023/">Ember</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wind and solar are replacing coal and gas</h2>
<p>Western economies have made progress in replacing fossil fuels (and coal in particular) with renewables during the last decade. In Europe and North America, wind has become a vital energy source during the winter months when energy demand peaks. And when the wind isn’t blowing, gas generation <a href="https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q1-2021/when-the-wind-goes-gas-fills-in-the-gap/">fills the gaps</a>.</p>
<p>Solar energy, when combined with batteries which can store excess electricity, is also proving to be a cheaper option than both gas and coal in certain parts of the world. In Australia, the industry association Australian Clean Energy Council found that solar panels and batteries are <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/battery-storage-the-new-clean-peaker.pdf">30% cheaper</a> than gas power plants during peak demand periods. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg NEF investigation found that batteries alone are <a href="https://www.energy-storage.news/bloombergnef-already-cheaper-to-install-new-build-battery-storage-than-peaking-plants/">already cheaper</a> than gas power plants during these times. In fact, solar panels may be generating electricity more cheaply than the grid in some cases.</p>
<p>In India, the cost of generating electricity from solar and storing it in batteries to use during high demand hours has <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/cleaner-and-now-cheaper-solar-power-beats-coal/">lower costs</a> than existing coal plants. Combined solar and battery plants can activate during peak hours and turn off again when demand drops, regardless of whether the wind is blowing or the sun shining. </p>
<p>In the US, almost half of new energy projects waiting to connect to the grid combine <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/queued_up_2022_04-06-2023.pdf">solar and wind with storage</a> technologies, allowing renewables to produce electricity on demand regardless of the weather.</p>
<h2>Energy demand is outpacing wind and solar</h2>
<p>Wind and solar has only slowed the rise in fossil fuel burning. This is particularly true for China, India, Thailand and Vietnam. These economies have grown rapidly and so has their power demand. </p>
<p>The replacement with renewables in developed economies is too slow to offset this increase on a global scale. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/13/asia-sails-into-headwinds-from-rate-hikes-war-and-china-slowdown">Cooling economic activity</a> in Asia – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/09/why-china-s-economy-is-slowing-and-why-it-matters/1accc256-3698-11ee-ac4e-e707870e43db_story.html">especially China</a> – might reverse this trend, making a replacement pattern similar to Europe and North America feasible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar chart showing additional power demand and supply from different sources between 2022 and 2025." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548594/original/file-20230915-25-5x2vjh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demand for electricity has exceeded supply from renewables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">International Energy Agency (IEA)/Malte Jansen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the warnings in the UN’s stocktake should be heeded, the outlook is not entirely gloomy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2022">report</a> from December 2022, virtually all new demand between now and 2025 will be satisfied by renewable energy. Wind and solar are expected to supply the bulk of this additional electricity, owing to their <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/renewables-cheapest-energy-source/">low cost and high availability</a>.</p>
<p>With new wind and solar now cheaper than existing fossil fuel generation, it is only a matter of time before they fully replace all new energy demand first, and replace existing fossil fuels after – even in fast-growing economies. However, as the UN report shows, this process needs to be significantly sped up to avert catastrophic warming.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malte Jansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite the meteoric rise of wind and solar, fossil energy sources have met most new demand in fast-growing economies.Malte Jansen, Lecturer in Energy and Sustainability, SPRU, University of Sussex Business School, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065922023-07-13T20:05:28Z2023-07-13T20:05:28ZFriday essay: from angry gods and fertile myths to battleships and new technologies – how the wind shapes our world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536487/original/file-20230710-23-rh65ob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C68%2C3503%2C2264&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>When it comes to the natural elements, wind’s role in shaping our world can be overlooked. <a href="https://www.livescience.com/ancient-egyptian-pharaoh-sphinx-statues-unearthed-at-sun-temple">The worship of the sun</a> in ancient cultures such as Egypt is common knowledge, and ancient gods such as the <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/Vulcan/">Roman Vulcan</a> deify volcanoes and fire. </p>
<p>But the work of wind – invisible to the naked eye – often goes unnoticed. Yet, for millennia, this unseen force has critically shaped aspects of life as varied as religion, trade, warfare, culture, science and more.</p>
<p>Mysterious and magical, wind has been worshipped, decided the outcome of innumerable military battles and powered the processes of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/exploration/nasa-parker-probe-solar-wind/">scientific exploration</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536443/original/file-20230710-19-3a8gm0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winslow Homer, The West Wind (1891).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wind and the natural world</h2>
<p>Wind can be described simply as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/wind">movement of air from areas of high to low pressure</a>. By definition, wind maintains a perpetual motion. Wind is a critical element for the maintenance of life on Earth – while the sun provides the planet with warmth, <a href="https://www.billnye.com/the-science-guy/wind">wind disperses this solar energy</a>, allowing for a habitable biosphere.</p>
<p>As well as shaping the course of human history, wind has shaped the Earth and its contents. A <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-11-powerful-sculpting-argentina-landscape.html">powerful terraforming force</a>, it is as influential as glaciers and rivers in moulding landmasses and creating mountains. Far from earth, winds blowing through the cosmos are thought to <a href="https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-science/how-galactic-winds-affect-evolution-of-galaxies/">seed the formation of galaxies</a>, while in the Southern Ocean, westerly winds feed the movement of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-antarctic-circumpolar-current-helps-keep-antarctica-frozen-106164">world’s strongest ocean current</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536460/original/file-20230710-29-tb1mqb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The largest ocean current on Earth, the Antarctic circumpolar current.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">British Antarctic Survey/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wind has influenced the growth of plants and the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2017317118">evolution of their physical forms</a>, and has at times wielded an unseen evolutionary force over animals. </p>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32341144/">A recent study of neotropic lizards</a> (tree-dwelling reptiles) found lizards with bigger toepads were more common in areas that <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/hurricanes-make-lizards-evolve-bigger-toe-pads-180974772/">experience frequent hurricane activity</a>. Larger feet appeared better able to cling to points of security during powerful winds. Similarly, hurricane activity is thought to be shaping the evolution of some species of spiders, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/08/21/spiders-becoming-more-aggressive-survive-after-hurricanes/2054316001/">making them more aggressive</a>.</p>
<p>Wind <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-12-biologists-mechanism-transition-insect-pollination.html">spreads the seeds, spores and pollens</a> necessary for fertilising the planet. It also carries life-giving rains, at times through aerial pathways known as “<a href="https://www.theamazonwewant.org/flying-rivers/">flying rivers</a>”. </p>
<p>Yet, the damaging potential of wind is as costly as it is unpredictable. In 2022, the Atlantic storm known as Hurricane Ian took 161 lives and caused <a href="https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/weather/2023-01-11/new-report-ian-third-costliest-hurricane-on-record">over US$100 billion dollars in damage</a>. <a href="https://www.history.com/news/hurricane-katrina-facts-legacy">Hurricane Katrina</a>, in 2005, caused catastrophic flooding, widespread damage and the loss of over 1,800 lives. The financial cost of Katrina has been estimated at over US$125 billion. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-costs-of-disasters-like-hurricane-ian-are-calculated-and-why-it-takes-so-long-to-add-them-up-191736">How the costs of disasters like Hurricane Ian are calculated – and why it takes so long to add them up</a>
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<h2>Wind and religion</h2>
<p>Wind’s unseen force has been recognised since the times of our earliest written records. In literature from ancient Mesopotamia (an area roughly synonymous with modern-day Iraq), a theme appears that continues throughout much later literature — the fusion of wind and religion in human thought.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536439/original/file-20230710-29-2fw8io.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Baked clay statue of the Mesopotamian god Enlil, from Nippur, Iraq, 1800-1600 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World History Encylopedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Enlil is a primary deity in the Mesopotamian pantheon, situated at the top of the divine hierarchy from the earliest times. <a href="https://www.history.com/news/hurricane-katrina-facts-legacy">Described as “king” or “supreme lord”</a>, his name can be translated as “Lord Wind”. Enlil’s wife is named Ninlil, meaning “Lady Wind”. </p>
<p>Enlil at times wields wind as a weapon. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-the-epic-of-gilgamesh-73444">Epic of Gilgamesh</a>, he sends a great storm to destroy most of humanity. Wind is also weaponised in the Babylonian Creation myth, <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/225/enuma-elish---the-babylonian-epic-of-creation---fu/">Enuma Elish</a>, which dates to around 1200 BCE. In this myth, a cosmic battle involves an array of savage winds, alongside the divine creation of the cardinal winds, North, South, East and West.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-the-epic-of-gilgamesh-73444">Guide to the classics: the Epic of Gilgamesh</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the Bible, the cardinal winds are frequently connected to apocalyptic settings. The four winds are involved in mediating the power of life and death in the Books of <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=job+1&version=NRSVUE">Job</a>, <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=mathew+24&version=NRSVUE">Matthew</a>, <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=mark+13&version=NRSVUE">Mark</a>, and <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ezekiel%2037&version=NRSVUE">Ezekiel</a>, while under the power of God or angels (or both). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534480/original/file-20230628-29-6ms1i0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Durer: Four angels holding back the winds, and the marking of the elect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The connection between the cardinal winds and apocalypse is reflected in art. The German Renaissance artist, <a href="https://news.artnet.com/art-world/albrecht-durer-3-things-to-know-1970024">Albrecht Dürer</a>, depicts angels holding the four winds in his work The Apocalypse with Pictures (1498). It represents a passage from the <a href="https://www.ancient-origins.net/news-history-archaeology/book-revelation-curses-0017927">Book of Revelation</a>, where angels are described “holding back” the four winds, thus representing the staying of divine judgement prior to further cataclysmic events.</p>
<p>In Egyptian religion, the four cardinal winds are found in the <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/148/the-pyramid-texts-guide-to-the-afterlife/">Pyramid texts</a> – sacred texts carved on the walls of the pyramids of Egyptian rulers during the Old Kingdom period. </p>
<p>In these texts, the four winds were viewed as servants of the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/ancient-egyptian-sun-temple-discovered">Egyptian god of creation and the sun, Ra</a>. The four winds were thought to stand behind him. Their power of “looking with two faces” meant their gaze could either be protective or harmful. </p>
<p>In the Egyptian <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1021/the-coffin-texts/">Coffin Texts</a>, the cardinal winds were connected to the afterlife. They also played a complex role in <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1019/magic-in-ancient-egypt/">ancient Egyptian magic</a>. Wind and magic have long been fused in religious thought. In many ancient cultures, religious practitioners were believed capable of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tempestarii">magically summoning the wind</a> and manipulating its power. </p>
<h2>Fertile breezes</h2>
<p>As well as recognising the wind’s dangerous and destructive potential, ancient cultures revered its creative capacity. In Greek myth, <a href="https://www.theoi.com/Nymphe/NympheKhloris.html">unions between wind and plant deities</a>, such as Chloris the flower goddess and Zephyrus, the West-Wind, mirrored the role of the wind in spreading seeds and pollinating plants. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536447/original/file-20230710-27-6ofe7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attic vase thought to depict Zephyrus (on left) and Hyacinthus, from Tarquinia, c. 480 BCE.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World History Encyclopedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was thought at this time that wind’s fertilising role worked on animals, too. Several early works in the genre of natural history, such as Pliny the Elder’s The Natural History (c. 1st century CE), describe divine, animate winds <a href="http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0137%3Abook%3D8%3Achapter%3D67">impregnating mares</a>. The Roman poet <a href="https://www.poetryintranslation.com/PITBR/Latin/VirgilGeorgicsIII.php">Virgil</a> described this behaviour as inspired by the <a href="https://www.getty.edu/art/exhibitions/aphrodite/venus.html">Roman love goddess, Venus</a>.</p>
<p>In myths from West Africa and South America, wind shows a religious association with <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-77481-3_48">breath, as well as living and ancestral spirits</a>. </p>
<p>The wind deity <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1465923?casa_token=MDVNYTM4o3kAAAAA%3A_N7PN_qaEaE6hB5CRvGp7D0LSXaSgtLrF1KQKm66blwSA482i8Qm1ETaL1LcXev6eC_PXSG-FnbLTh7wmixRWvChuptDFX9f7zQ4bZMbAgytCHVqqQ">Oya</a> is connected to tornadoes, change and rebirth. These connections symbolically represent the role of wind in bringing rains and assisting in the production of new life. </p>
<h2>Winds of war</h2>
<p>The invisible force of wind has helped shape the course of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/nov/16/how-wind-direction-changed-the-course-of-english-history-in-1688">innumerable human battles</a>. An ancient example of the use of wind in warfare comes from the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/ancient-romes-darkest-day-the-battle-of-cannae">Battle of Cannae</a>. In 216 BCE, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/hannibal">Hannibal</a>, the famous Carthaginian general, led his troops to victory over the larger Roman army in a bloody battle that took place in south-eastern Italy. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536444/original/file-20230710-19-w7ak16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Livy, Histoire romaine: The battle of Cannae.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hannibal understood the direction of a scorching local wind, known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libeccio">libeccio</a>, could prove a decisive element in the battle. </p>
<p>Knowing the wind would intensify in the heat of the afternoon, Hannibal positioned his troops so it would blow against their backs – and into the faces of his enemies. Hannibal’s success was recorded by the <a href="https://www.livius.org/articles/person/livy/">Roman historian, Livy</a>. The hot wind blew dust and grit into the eyes of the Romans, obstructing their vision. </p>
<p>During the English <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/european-history/wars-of-the-roses">War of the Roses </a>(1455-1487), the wind helped the Yorkists defeat the Lancastrians in the <a href="https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryMagazine/DestinationsUK/The-Battle-of-Towton/">Battle of Towton</a>. While the Lancastrians had claimed the higher ground on the battlefield, the Yorkists had the wind at their backs. This powerful headwind sent their arrows deep into the bodies of the Lancastrians, while limiting the range of their opponents’ arrows.</p>
<p>Sudden changes in the wind were decisive during several points of the 16th century <a href="https://www.tudorsociety.com/30-july-1588-wind-scatters-armada/">battles of the Spanish Armada</a>. Fortuitous winds also played a key role <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2019/03/20/weird-weather-saved-america-three-times/">helping George Washington</a> escape a British siege in the <a href="https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/battle-of-long-island/">Battle of Long Island</a> during the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/american-revolution/american-revolution-history">American Revolutionary War</a> (1775-83). </p>
<p>Washington’s retreat was assisted by the arrival of a fog and a wind shift that filled the sails of his company’s ships. In a later battle, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-tornado-that-saved-washington-33901211/">a tornado </a> pressed the British troops into retreat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536445/original/file-20230710-19-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An 1889 painting of the American retreat from Long Island after the battle of Brooklyn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More contemporary examples show how wind can be a fickle friend on the battlefield. During the first world war, the use of <a href="https://sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/a-brief-history-of-chemical-war/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw7uSkBhDGARIsAMCZNJueAShis_-YcLIAM6SNw4iQo99qIU76ucuLzyYE7psNZYfiKI3CqFwaAnjPEALw_wcB">chlorine, mustard and other gases</a> led to both psychological horror and devastating death and injuries. </p>
<p>Wind speeds and direction were carefully measured by military meteorologists, who advised on the optimal time to release gas to cause the greatest damage to the opposing side. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535459/original/file-20230704-22-3ledi8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Singer Sargent, Gassed (1919).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a change in the wind’s direction, or a shift in its intensity, could result in unintended consequences – and potentially, blowback. The nebulous quality of gas borne on wind meant the poisons could not be restricted to the battlefield, easily carrying to villages near the battlefront. This caused civilian deaths, too.</p>
<h2>Nuclear fallout</h2>
<p>In modern times, the unpredictability of wind has influenced the testing and use of nuclear weapons. On August 6, 1945, crosswinds meant the nuclear bomb dropped over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/18/story-of-cities-hiroshima-japan-nuclear-destruction">Hiroshima</a> was carried a short distance from its aiming point – the Aioi Bridge – to the Shima Hospital, which was instantly destroyed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535460/original/file-20230704-27-8jovfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atomic clouds over Hiroshima, left, and Nagasaki.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1954, the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/nuclear-bomb-tests-bikini-atoll-facts">testing of nuclear fusion bombs on the Bikini Atoll</a> by the US military was <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/marshall-islands/">adversely affected</a> by an unexpected weather event. The wind on the first of March in Bikini did not follow the predicted patterns of the meteorologists. Strong westerly winds carried fallout contamination across the population of the Marshall Islands, and beyond.</p>
<p>More than 70 years later, Bikini Islanders continue to <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/us-nuclear-testings-devastating-legacy-lingers-30-years-later?loggedin=true&rnd=1687827127877">face the consequences of the spread of radiation from the nuclear tests</a>. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/data/education/wind-shear.pdf">Wind shear</a> and ocean currents carried the fallout from the tests as far as Europe, Australia and India.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536446/original/file-20230710-28-ruryie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The second atom bomb test at Bikini Atoll explodes underwater on July 25, 1946.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shaping technology</h2>
<p>The invisible potency of wind has also powerfully shaped the development of technology. Since the Upper Palaeolithic times, wind-born aerofoils have been used for many purposes including hunting. The first known <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/earliest-evidence-of-the-boomerang-in-australia#:%7E:text=Boomerangs%20and%20throwing%20sticks&text=A%2023%2C000%2Dyear%2Dold%20mammoth,to%20about%2010%2C000%20years%20ago.">boomerang</a> dates to around <a href="https://apnews.com/article/5386e4fc34507bfe5a66dcb9f2753d80">23,000 years ago</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-indigenous-engineering-feats-you-should-know-about-198987">5 Indigenous engineering feats you should know about</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Wind filled the <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/mesopotamian-reed-boats-171674">sails of early boats</a> in Mesopotamia over 6,000 years ago, allowing for longer sea voyages, trade and cultural exchanges. </p>
<p>And in China, as well as parts of the Middle East, the invention of <a href="http://www.historyofwindmills.com/">windmills</a> allowed communities to pump water, grind grain and irrigate crops hundreds of years before the industrial revolution. </p>
<p>In modern times, wind-powered kites featured in many early weather experiments. Wind was critical to the discovery and development of electrical power — perhaps <a href="https://www.fi.edu/en/benjamin-franklin/kite-key-experiment">most famously in the experiments</a> of the American polymath, <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/american-revolution/benjamin-franklin">Benjamin Franklin</a>, who flew a kite fastened to a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyden_jar">Leyden jar</a> into a thunderstorm to research the connection of lightning to electricity (please don’t try this at home).</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535462/original/file-20230704-19-1xh7f8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benjamin West, circa 1816, Benjamin Franklin Drawing Electricity from the Sky.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wind power generated <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/wind-and-solar-generated-a-record-amount-of-global-power-in-2022.html#:%7E:text=Sustainable%20Future-,'Entering%20the%20clean%20power%20era'%3A%20Wind%20and%20solar%20generated,of%20global%20power%20in%202022&text=An%20analysis%20published%20Wednesday%20by,global%20electricity%20generation%20in%202021.">a record amount of electricity in 2022</a>, becoming the top energy producer in the UK. Further from home, the use of wind turbines <a href="https://www.popsci.com/technology/mars-wind-power-turbines-nasa-study/">on the volcanic highlands and crater rims of Mars</a> has been posited as potentially powering future human bases on the red planet.</p>
<p>Last year, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04363-9">wind dispersal</a> was explored as a means for carrying battery-free, wireless-sensing devices (sometimes called “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/09/16/smart-dust-is-coming-are-you-ready/?sh=70e756785e41">smart dust</a>”) in a study published in Nature. </p>
<p>The authors were inspired by <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/dandelion-seed-flight/">dandelion seeds</a>, which carry adaptions to make them easier to carry on the breeze. Battery-free wireless sensory devices are a relatively new field of research with many potential applications — including the areas of medicine, agriculture and military science.</p>
<p>In the 21st century, the need to understand and appreciate the natural world has become increasingly clear. Wind by its very nature is always shifting, and in recent years, <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/global-stilling-is-climate-change-slowing-the-worlds-wind">changes to global wind patterns have occurred due to climate change </a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-ilsa-just-broke-an-australian-wind-speed-record-an-expert-explains-why-the-science-behind-this-is-so-complex-203835">Cyclone Ilsa just broke an Australian wind speed record. An expert explains why the science behind this is so complex</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536959/original/file-20230712-24-bdstyv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, climate change has been linked to an increase in <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-isnt-just-making-cyclones-worse-its-making-the-floods-they-cause-worse-too-new-research-182789?gclid=CjwKCAjw44mlBhAQEiwAqP3eVqPwZCGYkGkY9LuAltqIolEqxP7h1AKSYYc1k3IOjUv6AuP2-_ywlRoCX7kQAvD_BwE">catastrophic wind-related weather events</a>, an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65844901">increase in clear air turbulence</a> (also known as “in-flight bumpiness”) and a <a href="https://www.ft.com/video/94669d40-8d30-4e95-8865-a4d034176c59">global reduction in wind speeds</a> known as “The Stilling.” </p>
<p>The impact of climate change on wind is a developing area of study, with the long-term impacts difficult to predict. Delving into the intangible and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-ilsa-just-broke-an-australian-wind-speed-record-an-expert-explains-why-the-science-behind-this-is-so-complex-203835">unpredictable</a> world of the wind is an encounter with nature’s ephemeral complexity.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Louise M. Pryke is the author of <a href="https://reaktionbooks.co.uk/work/wind">Wind, the latest volume in Reaktion’s Earth Series</a>. Wind explores the element’s natural history as well as its cultural life in myth, science, religion, art, music and literature.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>_Correction: in the original version of the article, The Book of Revelation was incorrectly listed as the Book of Revelations. _</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206592/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Pryke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Invisible to the naked eye, the work of the wind often goes unnoticed. Yet, for millennia, this unseen force has shaped religion, trade, warfare, culture, science and more.Louise Pryke, Honorary Research Associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2053192023-05-23T11:14:48Z2023-05-23T11:14:48ZHow we stop floating wind turbines the size of skyscrapers from drifting away<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527507/original/file-20230522-29-juo0z1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hywind Tampen wind farm, Norway.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://equinor.fotoware.cloud/fotoweb/archives/5020-Press/Folder%201/HYT_offshore1.jpg.info#c=%2Ffotoweb%2Farchives%2F5020-Press%2F">Karoline Rivero Bernacki/Equinor</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing demand for cleaner energy sources means offshore wind farms are being built all over the world. <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/2021/09/irena_and_gwec_offshore_wind_energy_compact_-_final_1.pdf">More than 5,000</a> turbines must be installed each year until 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>But in certain regions, like California, it is difficult to build wind turbines directly on the seafloor due to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-is-planning-floating-wind-farms-offshore-to-boost-its-power-supply-heres-how-they-work-163419">steep drop-off of the continental shelf</a>. </p>
<p>Even in areas with shallow coastal waters, such as the North Sea, congestion from shipping lanes, fishing activities, marine protected areas, tourism and existing energy infrastructure all impede new turbine construction. </p>
<p>So it’s hardly surprising that many of these new turbines will have to be located in deeper waters further out to sea. </p>
<p>Floating wind turbines are <a href="https://theconversation.com/floating-wind-farms-how-to-make-them-the-future-of-green-electricity-142847">emerging</a> as a promising solution. But turbines are also getting bigger at a rapid rate – allowing electricity to be produced at a <a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">lower cost</a>. </p>
<p>The blades of <a href="https://www.equinor.com/energy/hywind-scotland">Hywind Scotland</a>, the world’s first commercial floating wind farm, tower 175 metres above the sea surface – the same height as the London skyscraper known as The Gherkin.</p>
<p>This represents a huge technical challenge. Located in deep waters, these large floating structures must withstand the relentless push and pull of the ocean while maintaining stability to ensure ongoing energy generation.</p>
<p>So, how do these colossal structures remain in place? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of the four types of floating wind farm platform side by side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527696/original/file-20230523-29-upa5ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four types of floating wind farm platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://acteon.com/">Acteon</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The floating wind turbine</h2>
<p>The mast of a floating wind turbine is connected to a platform, which is designed to provide stability. Several different types of floating platform exist, each with the dimensions of a football pitch.</p>
<p>Beneath the water, mooring lines keep the turbine stable and prevent it from drifting away. Mooring lines can be either very large steel chains or synthetic ropes. Each of the three steel chains used for <a href="https://www.equinor.com/content/dam/statoil/documents/newsroom-additional-documents/news-attachments/brochure-hywind-a4.pdf">Hywind Scotland</a>, for example, are approximately 900 metres long and weigh 400 tonnes. </p>
<p>The mooring lines are attached to the seabed with a ground anchor. Most people will be familiar with anchoring a boat or securing the guy ropes of a tent with pegs. </p>
<p>In both cases, the anchor (or peg) is embedded into the ground, making it harder for the anchor to become dislodged as the weight and strength of the ground has to be overcome to pull the anchor out. The anchors used for floating wind turbines are based on the same principle, but at a far greater scale.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-are-already-skyscraper-sized-is-there-any-limit-to-how-big-they-will-get-196131">Wind turbines are already skyscraper-sized – is there any limit to how big they will get?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Three main types of anchor are used to fix the floating platform to the seabed, each with unique characteristics. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Drag anchors are similar to traditional boat anchors, but can have a 6 metre wingspan and <a href="https://delmarvryhof.com/products/anchors/stevpris-mk6/">weigh up to 50 tonnes</a>. They are dragged into the seabed by an installation vessel and embed themselves into the ground until the required holding resistance is achieved.</p></li>
<li><p>Pile anchors are like very large (up to 60 metres in length) but hollow nails. These anchors are hammered into the ground using an extremely heavy hammer. If the turbine is being installed above very hard soils or a rocky seabed, then a hole can be drilled to facilitate the pile installation.</p></li>
<li><p>Suction pile anchors are also hollow cylindrical tubes, but a sealed top cap creates suction pressure when water is pumped from inside of the pile. This forces the pile into the seabed without the need for hammering (an effect similar to the use of a plunger to unclog a drain). This is the type of anchor used to secure <a href="https://www.equinor.com/content/dam/statoil/documents/newsroom-additional-documents/news-attachments/brochure-hywind-a4.pdf">Hywind Scotland</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The mooring line for a floating wind turbine at a dock." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527488/original/file-20230522-21-jkclqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mooring line for a floating wind turbine at Polarbase, Hammerfest, Norway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://equinor.fotoware.cloud/fotoweb/archives/5020-Press/Folder%201/CorpPress/740aca6a921d4ec99a766665b0e01c0b.jpg.info">Øyvind Gravås and Even Kleppa/Equinor</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Choosing the right anchor</h2>
<p>Floating wind farms are being planned for areas such as the <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/162/welsh-affairs-committee/news/186547/floating-offshore-wind-in-celtic-sea-could-be-biggest-investment-opportunity-in-wales-but-certainty-over-projects-needed-from-uk-government/">Celtic Sea</a> and coastal waters <a href="https://windeurope.org/newsroom/news/france-launches-two-new-offshore-wind-tenders-more-needed/">west of France</a>. However, the presence of hard rock seabeds in both areas means drag anchors will be difficult to use. </p>
<p>Even in dense sand, a <a href="https://delmarsystems.com/video-vryhof-successfully-installs-stevsharkrex-in-australian-calcarenite-rock/">drag anchor</a> may only partly enter the seabed, creating inadequate support for the largest turbines. Drilled piles are the best way to anchor floating turbines to hard rock, so in this case, a driven pile might be the only option.</p>
<p>But driving these piles into the ground generates significant underwater noise that can be harmful for marine species. Research has also found that the movement behaviour of Atlantic cod <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749122001270">subtly changed</a> in response to pile driving in the North Sea. </p>
<p>Even small changes in movement behaviour could affect individual growth and reproduction rates, potentially influencing the growth rate of entire populations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022460X16001681">Several techniques</a> have now been devised to reduce noise. This includes air bubble curtains to limit the ecological impact of floating wind farms. But these techniques may result in additional costs that could make pile anchors too expensive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Anchor pile hanging in crane of offshore installation vessel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527539/original/file-20230522-23-hefy0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The installation of pile anchors generates significant underwater noise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anchor-pile-hanging-crane-offshore-installation-411348676">ATJA/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The world needs a lot more wind turbines, and technology now allows installation further out to sea. But, as identified in our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114327">recent review paper</a>, these environmental and technical challenges for anchoring the structures in place must be addressed. </p>
<p>Without more investment in anchor technology to streamline installation, improve anchor performance and limit damage to the natural world, the potential of floating wind to help the energy transition will be greatly reduced.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Cerfontaine received funding from the European Union (Grant agreement ID: 753156) and the Supergen ORE Hub (SEAMLESS project). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Gourvenec receives funding from the Royal Academy of Engineering under the Chairs in Emerging Technologies Scheme </span></em></p>Offshore wind turbines are getting bigger and bigger – and many of them now float – here’s how we stop them drifting away.Benjamin Cerfontaine, Lecturer in Geotechnical Engineering, University of SouthamptonSusan Gourvenec, Royal Academy of Engineering Chair in Emerging Technologies - Intelligent & Resilient Ocean Engineering, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993962023-02-14T01:26:06Z2023-02-14T01:26:06ZWind-powered cargo ships are the future: debunking 4 myths that stand in the way of cutting emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509336/original/file-20230210-29-tz5fx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C2%2C1688%2C1119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.theoceanbird.com/media/">Concept image from Oceanbird</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sailing cargo ships are making a genuine comeback. </p>
<p>Japanese bulk carrier MOL is operating a <a href="https://www.offshore-energy.biz/worlds-1st-cargo-ship-equipped-with-wind-challenger-delivered/">wind-assisted ship</a>. American food giant Cargill is working with Olympic sailor <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ben-Ainslie">Ben Ainslie</a> to deploy <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/windwings-propulsion-demonstration-set-for-2023-on-bulker">WindWings</a> on its routes. Swedish shipping company Wallenius is aiming for <a href="https://www.walleniusmarine.com/our-services/ship-design-newbuilding/ship-design/wind-powered-vessels/">Oceanbird</a> to cut emissions by up to 90%. The French start-up Zephyr & Borée has built the <a href="https://zephyretboree.com/en/projects/canopee/">Canopée</a>, which will transport parts of European Space Agency’s Ariane 6 rocket this year. </p>
<p>I researched the decarbonisation of the shipping industry. While doing fieldwork aboard the <a href="https://timbercoast.com/en/ship/">Avontuur</a>, a wind-propelled cargo ship, I even got <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/world/central-america/months-at-sea-with-no-internet-sailing-ship-heads-back-to-a-different-world-20200430-p54osi.html">stuck at sea for five months</a> – because of the pandemic, not because the winds failed. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Commercial carriers are due to set sail with WindWings this year.</span></figcaption>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-must-accelerate-its-decarbonisation-efforts-and-now-it-has-the-opportunity-to-do-so-195222">Shipping must accelerate its decarbonisation efforts – and now it has the opportunity to do so</a>
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<h2>Sailing towards zero emissions</h2>
<p>Like every other sector, the shipping industry needs to decarbonise in line with the Paris Agreement, but its emissions <a href="https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwac279/6884159">continue to grow</a>. In 2018 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a first-ever <a href="https://www.amsa.gov.au/marine-environment/air-pollution/imo-greenhouse-gas-strategy">target</a> of halving shipping emissions between 2008 and 2050. </p>
<p>It was an important, but inadequate, first step. <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/sectors/shipping/">Climate Action Tracker calculates</a> that halving emissions is not nearly enough to keep global warming below 1.5°C. </p>
<p>And yet the <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-top-of-drastic-emissions-cuts-ipcc-finds-large-scale-co-removal-from-air-will-be-essential-to-meeting-targets-180663">scientific consensus</a> is that 1.5°C is the real upper limit we can risk. Beyond that, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0">dangerous tipping points</a> could spell even more frequent disasters. </p>
<p>Luckily, the IMO will revise its strategy this July. I and many others expect far more ambition – because zero shipping emissions by 2050 is a necessity to keep the 1.5°C limit credible. That gives us less than three decades to clean up an industry whose ships have an average life of 25 years. The 2050 timeline conceals that our <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">carbon budget</a> will likely run out far more quickly – requiring urgent action for all sectors, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2021.1991876?src=">including shipping</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Oceanbird project aims to reduce a ship’s emissions by up to 90%.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ships-moved-more-than-11-billion-tonnes-of-our-stuff-around-the-globe-last-year-and-its-killing-the-climate-this-week-is-a-chance-to-change-150078">Ships moved more than 11 billion tonnes of our stuff around the globe last year, and it’s killing the climate. This week is a chance to change</a>
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<p><a href="https://vb.northsearegion.eu/public/files/repository/20210111083115_WASP-WP4.D5B-NewWPTALiteratureReviewofRecentAdoptions-Final.pdf">Research</a> has confirmed the potential of wind propulsion. </p>
<p>The maths is simple. Shipping accounts for one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/ourwork/environment/pages/ghg-emissions.aspx">almost 3%</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions. If wind propulsion saves fossil fuels today, the dwindling carbon budget stretches a little further. This, in turn, buys more time to develop alternative fuels, which most ships will need to some extent. Once these fuels are widely available, we’ll need less of them because the wind can provide anything from 10% to 90% of the power a ship needs. </p>
<p>Some commentators aren’t easily convinced, but I found most objections to wind-propelled shipping are based on four myths that can be easily debunked.</p>
<h2>Myth 1. Wind ships are a thing of the past, for good reason</h2>
<p>Wind ships may remind us of 19th-century tea clippers and, worse, of the slave trade and colonial exploitation. But returning to wind propulsion doesn’t mean going back in time. </p>
<p>New wind-powered ships use a blend of new and old technology to harness the wind where it is most common: at sea. This reduces the need for fossil fuels and for new alternative fuels that will require investment and space for new landside infrastructure, both to generate electricity and to transform this power into fuel. </p>
<p>Even if research into sailing cargo ships all but stopped in the late 19th century, engineering, materials science, yacht racing and aerospace design have yielded major innovations that are being used for cargo ships. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sail-gp-how-do-supercharged-racing-yachts-go-so-fast-an-engineer-explains-121902">Sail GP: how do supercharged racing yachts go so fast? An engineer explains</a>
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<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The historic tea clipper Cutty Sark" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508782/original/file-20230208-28-31aufw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wind-propelled ships today are a very different proposition from 19th-century tea clippers like the Cutty Sark.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Myth 2. The wind is unreliable, so ships won’t arrive on time</h2>
<p>The wind may seem fickle when standing on the beach. But at sea the trade winds that powered globalisation have remained stable. Indeed, the most <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X15003917?via%3Dihub">common trade routes are still well-served by the prevailing winds</a>.</p>
<p>Weather forecasting has also improved massively since the last days of sail. And <a href="https://research.manchester.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/quantifying-voyage-optimisation-with-wind-assisted-ship-propulsio">weather routing software</a> helps find the best course to take better than anyone could in the 19th century. </p>
<p>While the wind may not be as predictable as a steady flow of heavy fuel oil, technological advances have taken a lot of uncertainty out of sailing. The wind is also free and unaffected by fluctuating oil prices. </p>
<h2>Myth 3. Sails cannot work on all types of ships</h2>
<p>It’s true not all types of ships would work with sails, rotors or kites mounted on their decks. This can be due to the type of ship, as the largest container ships can’t easily accommodate sails, for example. It can also be because of where or how vessels operate – the windless waters of <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/doldrums.html">the doldrums</a> and tight ferry schedules do pose challenges. </p>
<p>However, the argument that wind propulsion isn’t viable because <em>some</em> ships can’t use it is like claiming that commuting by bike is not a realistic option because not <em>everyone</em> can do so. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the race between <a href="https://ajot.com/news/veer-corp-is-ready-to-move-full-wind-speed-ahead">Veer Voyage</a> and <a href="https://www.wind.coop/en/">Windcoop</a> to build the first wind-powered container ship is on. So, perhaps such ships can use sails, after all. </p>
<h2>Myth 4. If it makes so much sense, we’d already be doing it</h2>
<p>The 1970s oil crisis drove an upswing of interest in wind propulsion. Conferences in <a href="https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:fe753c49-ba27-483d-9aaa-2ac7fccdd921?collection=research">Delft</a> (1980) and <a href="https://www.hrmm.org/uploads/2/6/3/3/26336013/proceedings_of_regional_conference_on_sail-motor_propulsion__18-21_nov_1985_.pdf">Manila</a> (1985) heralded a new dawn for wind ships. But as oil prices dropped, interest waned. </p>
<p>Wind has had a hard time competing with cheap <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/at-last-the-shipping-industry-begins-cleaning-up-its-dirty-fuels">heavy fuel oil</a> – the toxic sludge that refineries have no other use for. Wind propulsion has remained a niche part of the sector because shipping companies don’t have to pay the real environmental and societal costs of burning fossil fuels. </p>
<p>But a global carbon price is likely to be applied soon to international shipping (the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=e51fae91-1f13-4b0d-bf5d-97ab2fffe2f8">already includes shipping</a>). This creates a financial incentive for non-polluting means of propulsion. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are we waiting for?</h2>
<p>The added complexity of using wind propulsion and weather routing software is a small trade-off to decarbonise shipping. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.wind-ship.org/">International Windship Association</a> reports that more than 20 commercial cargo ships already use “wind-assist” technologies that are retrofitted on existing vessels. The first purpose-built modern sailing cargo ship, <a href="https://news.satnews.com/2023/01/17/canopee-ariane-6s-new-transport-ship-ends-sea-trials-and-docks-in-french-guiana-for-first-time/">Canopée</a>, will start operations this year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Photograph of newly launched wind-powered ship in the water at dock." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509661/original/file-20230213-19-np5o2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Canopée has been launched and wingsails will soon be installed before her first journey transporting parts of the Ariane 6 rocket launcher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canopee_dron_%281%29.jpg">Kapitel/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While shipping is a conservative industry, with few companies willing to be first movers, many more wind-propelled vessels will be launched in the next years. </p>
<p>For shipping companies, the biggest risk now isn’t making a daring investment – it’s not investing in a sustainable future at all. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Christiaan De Beukelaer’s new book, <a href="https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526163097/trade-winds/">Trade Winds: A Voyage to a Sustainable Future for Shipping</a>, is out now.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>A growing source of global emissions is the ships that carry most of the goods we consume. A 21st-century generation of cargo ships propelled by the wind can reverse this unsustainable trend.Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer in Culture & Climate, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961312023-01-03T06:58:01Z2023-01-03T06:58:01ZWind turbines are already skyscraper-sized – is there any limit to how big they will get?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501585/original/file-20221216-24-fnwtnq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4048%2C2277&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fokke Baarssen / Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2023, some 100 miles off the coast of north-east England, the world’s largest wind turbines will start generating electricity. This first phase of the Dogger Bank offshore wind farm development uses General Electric’s <a href="https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind/haliade-x-offshore-turbine">Haliade X</a>, a turbine that stands more than a quarter of a kilometre high from the surface of the sea to the highest point of the blade tip.</p>
<p>If you placed one in London, it would be the third-tallest structure in the city, taller than One Canada Square in Canary Wharf and just 50 metres shorter than the Shard. Each of its three blades would be longer than Big Ben’s clock tower is tall. And Dogger Bank will eventually have nearly 300 of these giants.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Comparison of large wind turbine and famous buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501592/original/file-20221216-17-i1ei6x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Next up: an Eiffel-sized turbine?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/gerenewableenergy/photos/infographic-meet-ges-haliade-x-the-most-powerful-offshore-wind-turbine-in-the-wo/2169396046682917/">GE Renewable Energy / Facebook</a></span>
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<p>Just two decades have passed since the UK’s first proper offshore wind farm was built off the coast of north Wales. Its turbines were each able to produce 2 megawatts (MW) of electricity in ideal conditions – considered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2003/nov/20/1">huge at the time</a>. In contrast, the Haliade X is able to produce 13MW of electricity, and <a href="https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/10/10/siemens-gamesa-offshore-wind-turbine-prototype-breaks-24-hour-output-record/">15MW turbines</a> are only another year or two away. </p>
<p>So why are turbines increasing in size at such a rapid rate, and is there a limit to how big they can go? In short, the first answer is to reduce the cost of energy and the second is that there must be a limit – but nobody has put a number on it yet.</p>
<h2>Big turbines, cheap electricity</h2>
<p>Just five years ago, the offshore wind industry hoped to reduce its energy pricing to below <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/uk-offshore-wind-beats-100-mwh-goal-early-as-lcoe-plunges-by-32-/1-1-1209195">£100 per megawatt-hour by 2020</a> from new projects in UK waters. Even at that level, projects would still have relied on government subsidies to make them economically viable, compared with other types of electricity generation.</p>
<p>But in fact, costs quickly reduced to the extent that offshore wind farm developers were soon committing to selling their electricity at <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-auction-offshore-wind-cheaper-than-new-gas/">much lower prices</a>. Today, developers are building wind farms such as Dogger Bank where they have committed to prices below £50 per megawatt-hour. This makes offshore wind competitive with other forms of power generation, effectively removing the need for subsidy. </p>
<p>The major factor in reducing these costs was turbine size. Ever-larger turbines came to market faster than virtually everybody in the sector had expected. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Dogger Bank offshore wind" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501589/original/file-20221216-16-xmp54h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dogger Bank is ideal for offshore wind as the water is very shallow. When complete, the project will power 6 million UK homes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doggerbank.com/">Dogger Bank Wind Farm</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Blades cannot spin too fast</h2>
<p>In theory, turbines can keep getting bigger. After all, a bigger blade extracts energy from the wind over a greater area as it rotates, which generates more electricity. </p>
<p>But there are some engineering constraints. One concerns erosion of the blades caused by them colliding with raindrops and sea spray. For current designs, the speed of the blade tips must be limited to 90 metres per second (which works out at just under 200mph) in order to avoid erosion. Therefore, as turbines get bigger and blades get longer, their rotors have to turn more slowly. </p>
<p>A consequence of having to slow the rotor down is that, to produce the same amount of power, the blades must deflect the wind to a greater extent. This results in greatly increased forces on the whole turbine. We can address these high forces, but only by increasing both turbine weight and cost. And that means the point at which the turbine becomes unprofitable – the point at which the extra cost is no longer worth it for the value of extra electricity generated – is reached much sooner than if the blade tips were allowed to go faster.</p>
<p>Also, as blades get longer they become more flexible. This makes it more difficult to keep the aerodynamics of the wind flow around them fully under control, and harder to ensure the blades do not strike the turbine tower under extreme wind conditions. </p>
<h2>Logistical constraints</h2>
<p>Engineering challenges like these can perhaps be solved in the longer term, though. This will mean that wind turbines are more likely to be limited in size by manufacturing, installation and operational issues, rather than any physical limit on the design of the turbine. </p>
<p>Just transporting blades and towers from factory to site and assembling the turbine when you get there presents huge challenges. Each of those Big Ben-sized blades must be shipped in one piece. This requires huge ports, giant vessels, and cranes that can operate safely and reliably far offshore. This is where the limit is most likely to come from. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind farm under construction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/501594/original/file-20221216-14-mxxe25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Needed: huge ships, ports and cranes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DJ Mattaar / Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You can see these limits in practice in the UK, which is <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-is-only-just-beginning-to-exploit-its-vast-resources-of-offshore-wind-64134">surrounded by windy and shallow seas</a> that are perfect for generating energy. Despite this, the UK is likely to <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/rate-of-wind-turbine-installation-needs-to-be-tripled-for-uk-to-hit-2030-target-06-09-2022/">miss its ambitious target</a> to more than treble its offshore wind capacity by 2030.</p>
<p>This is not because of technology or lack of offshore sites. Rather, the industry will not be able to manufacture turbines quickly enough, and the port infrastructure and number of installation vessels, suitable cranes and workers with requisite skills is unlikely to be sufficient. </p>
<p>So if the UK is to maximise the benefit to its economy from what is, so far, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-since-2010-wind-surges-to-second-place-coal-collapses-and-fossil-fuel-use-nearly-halves-129346">fantastic success story</a>, the focus now needs to switch from pure cost reduction to developing workers’ skills and the offshore wind supply chain.</p>
<p>Turbines will get bigger, I am sure, but I suspect at a slower rate than we have seen in recent years. And if the turbines are deployed 100 miles offshore, will anybody care? After all, the public will not be there to see them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-submerged-island-is-the-perfect-spot-for-the-worlds-biggest-wind-farm-37870">Why a submerged island is the perfect spot for the world's biggest wind farm</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Hogg is the Ørsted Professor in Renewable Energy at Durham University. Ørsted are a leading developer of offshore wind farms. Professor Hogg is Chair of the Energi Coast Innovation Group (<a href="https://energicoast.co.uk/">https://energicoast.co.uk/</a>). He has been awarded research funding for projects by offshore wind industry partners and by the UK government research council.</span></em></p>Meet the Canary Wharf-sized wind turbine with Big Ben-sized blades.Simon Hogg, Executive Director of the Durham Energy Institute, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1946792022-12-20T15:58:02Z2022-12-20T15:58:02ZInvestments in green energy infrastructure: an (over)performance that will last?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495400/original/file-20221115-11-jzlrbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1495%2C997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The European Commission estimates that between 2021 and 2030, the energy sector at European level will need at least 175 billion euros per year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pexels.com/fr-fr/photo/trois-eoliennes-grises-243138/">Pexels</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The summer of 2022, which saw repeated <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/08/21/map-of-europe-and-the-mediterranean-s-summer-temperatures-and-extreme-weather-events_5994301_114.html">heat waves, fires, and droughts</a> in Europe and around the world, is confirmation that the effects of global warming are coming on stronger and faster than even the most pessimistic forecasts. To be able to hope to curb them, it is essential for us to change our current mode of energy production and consumption to a more responsible model. This paradigm shift will require major investments: the European Commission estimates that between 2021 and 2030, the EU’s energy sector will need a minimum of <a href="https://www.cre.fr/en/CRE-in-the-world/Europe/eu-legislation">175 to 290 billion euros per year for the development of green energies</a> (solar, wind, etc.) and the necessary infrastructure.</p>
<p>But from a strictly financial point of view, is the return for investors worth it? Do green energies, which represent the future, provide better financial performance, compared to fossil energies, which are doomed to disappear?</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://edhec.infrastructure.institute/paper/the-pricing-of-green-infrastructure/">recent work</a>, we studied the expected returns and actual performance of green-energy infrastructure compared to fossil-energy infrastructure over a 10-year period (2011-2021). This question of return on investment is crucial, as investments in wind and solar energy projects currently represent between 25% and 33% of all infrastructure investments and their growth is anticipated to accelerate.</p>
<h2>A favourite among investors</h2>
<p>One of the arguments used to promote sustainable investment is that it generates better returns than conventional investment (which finances, among other things, fossil fuels). Does this hold true in practice?</p>
<p>In 2011, wind and solar energy projects had an expected return of 8%, compared to 9% for fossil energy projects. Their total annualised returns over 10 years were 16% and 17% respectively in 2021. These two figures may seem similar, but they correspond to two different economic realities.</p>
<p>Our study shows that there is now evidence of outperformance of investments in green infrastructure (defined as wind and solar projects). This outperformance, which is defined as higher returns than conventional assets, is indeed due to changing investor preferences for “green” projects. In other words, there is an excess demand for this type of investment, which can be attributed to the public’s growing awareness of energy-transition issues, and that explains the better performance of responsible assets compared to conventional assets.</p>
<h2>A paradigm shift?</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, investors have shown increasing interest in the renewable energy sector. In the first half of 2022, green investments totalled <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/renewable-energy-sector-defies-supply-chain-challenges-to-hit-a-record-first-half-for-new-investment/">US$226 billion</a>, up 11% year-on-year, according to a BloombergNEF report published in August. In particular, investments in solar projects reached $120 billion (+33%) and wind projects $84 billion (+16%).</p>
<p>In a 2022 survey of around 350 asset portfolios, <a href="https://edhec.infrastructure.institute/">EDHECinfra</a> found that renewables accounted for between 25% and 33% of investments, but also that fossil fuels (gas and coal) accounted for only 1 to 3% of portfolios, with a notable exception for North American investors.</p>
<p>This is because fossil-fuel projects are, in addition to being relatively unpopular, subject to environmental taxes – such as the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/carbon-pricing-france.pdf">carbon tax in France</a> and from 2026, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4a0db207-cf24-42e4-bf82-9952b93980e8">European Union</a>. Moreover, we are witnessing what may well be a tipping point. In 2020, investment in renewables exceeded $500 billion, compared to $400 billion for oil and gas production. Indeed, the value of so-called “traditional” assets is being affected.</p>
<h2>Will the momentum keep up?</h2>
<p>It can be seen that over the last decade, fossil fuel investments have been shunned by mainstream investors, while green assets have been widely integrated into investment portfolios. This is particularly visible over the period 2012-2015, during which green assets also performed better than (or as well as) conventional assets.</p>
<p>This performance of green assets can be explained in particular by a change in risk perception (responsible investment tends to become more normalised and even more desirable). By contrast, the performance of conventional assets remains driven by their risk-adjusted return.</p>
<p>However, these temporarily higher returns for green investments do not predict future performance. According to our observations, this phenomenon of strong demand accompanied by an increase in the value of green assets reached its peak in 2019. At present, the expected returns from this type of investment are much lower.</p>
<p>This means, among other things, that returns on green energy projects should not be seen as an indicator of their future performance. For the more demand for green assets is met by additional investment, the lower the expected returns. Indeed, supply and demand eventually converge, allowing the outperformance of green assets to be “corrected”.</p>
<p>There is therefore no real <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/risk-premium/">risk premium</a> for green infrastructure projects that investors could benefit from over the long term. In fact, we should rather speak of a “green premium”, which investors were willing to pay at a given moment, when responsible assets gained in popularity. The outperformance of green assets over the previous decade was only due to excess demand, which eventually diminished.</p>
<p>In other words, when supply finally caught up with demand, green assets experienced a relative decline in performance as a result of a return to market equilibrium. The green premium is a reality, but it was only meant to be temporary. The previous decade should therefore be seen as a transition period, not as the beginning of a permanent phenomenon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>A new study indicates that the supply of “green” assets has caught up with demand, leading to a relative decline in performance. The green premium is a reality, but may be temporary.Frédéric Blanc-Brude, Directeur de l'EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business SchoolNoël Amenc, Professeur de finance, EDHEC Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1960332022-12-14T19:03:49Z2022-12-14T19:03:49ZAustralia needs much more solar and wind power, but where are the best sites? We mapped them all<p>Renewable energy’s share of Australia’s <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">main electricity grid</a> has more than doubled from <a href="https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1M">16% to 35%</a> in five years, and the federal government wants this figure to reach <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">82% by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Nearly all new power plants in Australia are <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/">solar and wind</a> because these are the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/executive-summary">cheapest sources of electricity</a>. Some of the extra solar capacity will be on rooftops. However, most solar and wind farms will necessarily be in regional areas. So where are the best sites?</p>
<p>Our report, released today, set out to answer this question. We developed so-called “<a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/">heat maps</a>” that identify which sites across Australia are – and are not – suitable for wind and solar projects. </p>
<p>The maps highlight the importance of being close to existing or planned high-voltage transmission lines. We hope our findings will empower communities, landholders, local councils when negotiating with renewable energy developers. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1574263269304332289"}"></div></p>
<h2>What makes a site suitable?</h2>
<p>So what makes a site suitable for a renewable energy project? It depends on:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>solar and wind resources – wind in particular can vary greatly from place to place, such as a windy ridge top versus a still valley bottom</p></li>
<li><p>access to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">high-voltage transmission</a> – the transformers, towers and cables that carry generated electricity to the cities</p></li>
<li><p>social, cultural and environmental constraints – urban areas, national parks and remnant native forest are unsuitable</p></li>
<li><p>aspect (ideally north-facing for solar) and slope (not too steep)</p></li>
<li><p>willing hosts – landholders host solar and wind farms and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-landowners-to-get-800m-to-host-high-voltage-transmission-in-renewables-push/">transmission lines</a> in return for large annual payments</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-want-to-be-part-of-that-movement-residents-embrace-renewable-energy-but-worry-how-their-towns-will-change-184743?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton">social licence</a> – local community support in response to the economic activity and jobs that flow from constructing and maintaining solar and wind farms</p></li>
<li><p>government incentives or disincentives</p></li>
<li><p>access to roads, skilled workers and local electrical loads.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The two important siting factors that most often vary greatly from place to place within a region are access to the transmission network and to wind resources. </p>
<p>Access to transmission is the largest constraint. Typical power lines cross dozens to hundreds of properties and require complex negotiations with many people.</p>
<p>In contrast, solar and wind farms generally fit on one or a few properties. That usually makes an access agreement much easier to negotiate. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1472666413680627714"}"></div></p>
<h2>A closer look at the heat maps</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/#map-links">high-resolution heat maps</a> identify the solar and wind potential of all prospective areas close to existing or approved high-power transmission. </p>
<p>Pixels in the map are red if a location scores well. Yellow and blue pixels indicate less preferred locations. Green pixels are unsuitable land such as conservation reserves, urban regions and native forests. </p>
<p>The pixels are 1km by 1km for solar and 250m by 250m for wind, because the wind resource varies more rapidly with location. </p>
<p>Users can zoom and pan with ease. Clicking on a pixel obtains an indicative relative cost of generating solar or wind electricity (in A$/MWh) for that location. It includes the cost of energy from a solar or wind farm plus the cost of a low-voltage powerline to the nearest existing or planned high-voltage transmission lines.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-need-land-and-lots-of-it-that-poses-tricky-questions-for-regional-australia-156031">Renewables need land – and lots of it. That poses tricky questions for regional Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499897/original/file-20221208-13153-n2wbh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map showing Victorian solar resource for a low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=f1a311a1f6cf42399f39d67dd04c6adf&extent=83.751,-49.176,180,-0.0352">RE100 Group</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It doesn’t include costs for environmental and geotechnical approvals, road upgrades, substations, payments to host farmers, risk and others. These costs vary greatly with the scale of the project. To include these costs, heat-map users can select high, medium or low-range costs.</p>
<p>All existing and planned transmission lines with voltage of 275kV or above are included. These include anticipated or actionable projects discussed in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2022 <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-releases-30-year-electricity-market-roadmap">Integrated System Plan</a>. We added two scenarios for 220kV lines in Tasmania in order to include the <a href="https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/battery-of-the-nation">Battery of the Nation</a> hydropower project.</p>
<p>We modelled <a href="https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/heatmaps/#map-links">12 scenarios</a>: six each for solar and wind. The scenarios cover high, medium and low-cost assumptions, with overhead or underground low-voltage powerline connection to the transmission network. Going underground increases the cost by six times. </p>
<p>Landholders might be able to negotiate a substantial annual access fee for overhead powerlines to the transmission network, to allow developers to avoid the costs of going underground. Hybrid overhead-underground powerlines might sometimes be an attractive compromise. </p>
<p>Solar and wind generation within each pixel is assigned to one of five cost classes: A, B, C, D and E. The lower-cost A, B and C classes are strongly preferred.</p>
<p>For each local government area in Australia, we estimated potential solar and wind capacities for the five different cost classes. The renewable resource that can be used will depend on local transmission line capacity and local loads. We can provide detailed information to local councils. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-to-90-of-electricity-from-solar-and-wind-the-cheapest-option-by-2030-csiro-analysis-151831">Up to 90% of electricity from solar and wind the cheapest option by 2030: CSIRO analysis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>There’s no shortage of suitable sites</h2>
<p>Class A, B and C sites are all close to existing and planned high-voltage transmission. This consideration outranks excellence of local solar and wind resources. Landholders in Class A/B/C regions can negotiate attractive terms to host solar and wind farms and powerline connections to transmission networks. </p>
<p>A particularly attractive region for solar and wind farms in NSW is the Goulburn-Lithgow district. It’s well served by transmission and has good wind and solar resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499940/original/file-20221209-21714-c5cvm1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map around Goulburn for the scenario with underground power lines and low solar costs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=f1a311a1f6cf42399f39d67dd04c6adf&extent=83.751,-49.176,180,-0.0352">RE100 Group</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Victoria, the Yallourn district is attractive because of good wind potential and strong existing transmission into Melbourne, plus there’s a need to replace local coal industry jobs. There’s also extensive wind potential west of Melbourne, good solar potential in the state’s north and extensive offshore wind resources in Bass Strait.</p>
<p>South Australia has excellent wind and solar potential to the east of St Vincent and Spencer gulfs. </p>
<p>Queensland’s best wind and solar sites follow the coastal transmission lines north from Brisbane. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499951/original/file-20221209-24715-hv1x1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland sites for solar under the low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Good wind and solar sites in Western Australia follow the transmission lines north and south of Perth. </p>
<p>Tasmania has extensive wind resources along the north coast, on King and Flinders islands and in Bass Strait. Their development depends on the <a href="https://www.marinuslink.com.au/">Marinus Link</a> being constructed across Bass Strait.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499952/original/file-20221209-24-sovms3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tasmanian sites for wind under the low-cost scenario with overhead powerlines.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241">There's a huge surge in solar production under way – and Australia could show the world how to use it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Who’ll benefit from these maps?</h2>
<p>Solar and wind farm developers have extensive information and experience in evaluating locations. This creates a large imbalance in knowledge when they negotiate with landholders, communities and governments.</p>
<p>By empowering local councils and landholders to identify suitable sites, our heat maps will help reduce this imbalance.</p>
<p>Developers might benefit, too, if the maps reduce the complexity and time involved in gaining legal access and community acceptance. </p>
<p>Local governments can also use these maps to identify potential zones for multiple solar and wind farms. These <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-renewable-energy-zone/">renewable energy zones</a>, which are recognised by the states, could help attract developers, boosting local economic activity.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors gratefully acknowledge funding support for this research from CWP Renewables and Innovation Connections.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cheng Cheng receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Innovation Connections, and several private companies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Innovation Connections and several private companies</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nadolny receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.</span></em></p>To achieve a target of 82% renewable energy generation by 2030 requires a huge number of new sites for solar and wind farms.Cheng Cheng, Research Officer, School of Engineering, Australian National UniversityAndrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityAnna Nadolny, Research Officer, 100% Renewable Energy Group, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1959062022-12-13T19:02:18Z2022-12-13T19:02:18ZTo clean up Australia’s power grid, we’re going to need many thousands more skilled workers – and fast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500312/original/file-20221212-95362-f6pez3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C194%2C9850%2C6661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To get Australia’s grid 82% powered by renewables by 2030 is a huge increase. At present, the electricity powering eastern and southern states is around <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem">33% renewable</a>.</p>
<p>To get there means a lot of work. Over the next seven years, it would be <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">equivalent to</a> installing dozens of large wind turbines every month, and tens of thousands of solar panels every day. </p>
<p>And work needs workers. To make this happen, <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/australian-electricity-workforce-2022-integrated-system-plan-projections-2050">our modelling shows</a> 15,000 more workers are needed by 2025 – less than three years away. That’s amid a skills shortage, an <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/2021-infrastructure-market-capacity-report">infrastructure boom</a> and unemployment rates at the lowest level in decades. </p>
<p>So how to do it? We need to train more skilled workers and give them more security. Renewable projects have tended to operate on boom-bust cycles when it comes to jobs. But to get where we need to be, we need to shift to a long-term boom mentality. We’re going to need people doing these jobs for decades to come.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Solar panel installation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500313/original/file-20221212-93168-k8glwk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The big renewable build will only work if we have enough workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How big is this issue?</h2>
<p>Big. Getting to 82% renewables and fast means we need to greatly scale up the electricity sector workforce in generation, storage and transmission line construction. </p>
<p>We estimate the current workforce is around 41,000, including 12,000 working in coal and gas power stations or supplying those power stations with fuel. This is only an estimate, as updated figures won’t be available until the federal government delivers its promised <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-workforce/australian-energy-employment-report">energy employment report</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-off-the-coast-could-help-australia-become-an-energy-superpower-research-finds-164590">Wind turbines off the coast could help Australia become an energy superpower, research finds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s energy market operator, AEMO, publishes regularly updated pathways to a clean-energy future. Now we have federal backing for accelerated timelines, the most likely outcome is the so-called “<a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">step change scenario</a>”. This scenario envisages nine times more wind and solar by 2050, to boost capacity to 141 gigawatts, and four times more rooftop solar. </p>
<p>Under this scenario, 15,000 more workers must be ready and able to build and operate renewables and storage, or build transmission lines, by 2025. </p>
<p>The problem is, these workers don’t exist at present. Many existing skilled workers are already paid well by major infrastructure projects, such as metro rail projects in Melbourne and Sydney and regional projects such as inland rail. What’s more, unemployment rates are the lowest in decades, and peak demand for labour to build wind and solar projects is set to outstrip the <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-09/employment-skills-and-supply-chains-renewable-energy-in-nsw-final-report.pdf">entire current workforce</a> in some regional areas where the renewable projects will be concentrated.</p>
<p>To add to the challenge, skilled workers tend to live in major population centres – but clean energy projects are virtually all in the regions. So the clean energy sector must compete with big infrastructure projects in the cities, which pay more and don’t involve travel. You can see the challenge. If we don’t get this right, the clean energy transition just won’t happen. </p>
<p>The common answer to workforce shortages is to train more workers. But here, too, there are challenges. Our skilled training sector has long been in the doldrums, with demand spread thin across far-flung regions and policy uncertainty leaving many gaps in capacity.</p>
<h2>15,000 new skilled workers are just the start</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/isf/explore-research/projects/australian-electricity-workforce-2022-integrated-system-plan-projections-2050">modelled the workforce</a> needed to achieve three of the AEMO scenarios: the step change, the hydrogen superpower and the slow change. We also modelled an offshore wind scenario, using AEMO’s modified step change “sensitivity” which takes into account <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/offshore-wind">Victoria’s ambitious target</a> for offshore wind.</p>
<p>Under the step change scenario, we found the demand for skilled jobs will increase 37,000 from 2023 and peak at 81,000 in 2049. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=310&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500558/original/file-20221212-22-pi89ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jobs in generation, transmission construction and storage under different scenarios for the National Electricity Market.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if Australia becomes a major exporter of renewable energy in the form of green hydrogen or green ammonia, as backers like iron ore billionaire Twiggy Forrest <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/forrest-strikes-huge-green-hydrogen-plan-with-german-energy-giant-e-on/">are hoping</a>, that’s a different story. It would require up to twice the workers of the step-change scenario in the 2030s, and up to triple in the 2040s. </p>
<p>That’s a staggering peak demand of 237,000 jobs, with an average demand of 110,000. To get there, we would need 34,000 extra workers within three years. </p>
<p>Where will the jobs be? New South Wales will be the leading state in most scenarios, with a demand for over 20,000 skilled workers annually until 2050 under the step-change scenario. Across NSW, Queensland and Victoria, the job split by technologies is very similar in this scenario: 37% of jobs in solar, 27–30% for wind, and 17–22% in batteries. The pattern is similar in the offshore wind and slow-change scenarios.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500561/original/file-20221212-22-5lpidw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What about the hydrogen superpower scenario? This would change things dramatically. Here, the highest demand for renewable jobs would be in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. Compared to the step-change scenario, Queensland would add over 100,000 jobs, while jobs in South Australia would more than treble and Tasmania quadruple from 2,200 to 9,400. Relatively modest growth is projected for NSW and Victoria – 4,000 new jobs in both states compared to the step change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500560/original/file-20221212-24-bsk51g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity sector jobs in the Step Change scenario by technology in the National Electricity Market.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We can’t just leave it to the market</h2>
<p>Coordinated action is needed to plan and implement skills, training and workforce development. Here, state and territory governments can build on the recent creation of <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-zones">Renewable Energy Zones</a> – essentially, renewable rich areas where transmission lines exist or will be built – to boost collaboration between industry and government on training strategies and programs. </p>
<p>Workforce planning should be brought into overall energy system planning, to help reduce the employment boom-bust cycle. Most electricity planning favours “just in time” construction, where infrastructure is built as it is needed. That means demand for labour is volatile. The NSW government has created an <a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11/electricity-infrastructure-jobs-advocates-first-report-to-minister-for-energy-for-publication.pdf">electricity infrastructure jobs advocate</a> and created <a href="https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/about-energyco/our-purpose">EnergyCo</a> to co-ordinate the development of the renewable energy zones and maximise local benefits. </p>
<p>Given current shortages of workers, it’s vital governments take action now. Acting early would help future-proof our clean energy workforce and maximise benefits for regional areas. Even better, we could help boost numbers of workers from under-represented groups such as women and First Nations communities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-can-aboriginal-communities-be-part-of-the-nsw-renewable-energy-transition-181171">How can Aboriginal communities be part of the NSW renewable energy transition?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay Rutovitz received funding for this work from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Briggs received funding for this research from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rusty Langdon received funding for this research from the RACE for 2030 CRC, the Government of NSW, and the Government of Victoria. The Australian Energy Market Operator was a partner in the work.</span></em></p>We’ll need to almost double our electricity sector workforce to build renewables as quickly as we need to. Where will the workers come from amid a skills shortage and infrastructure boom?Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyChris Briggs, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyRusty Langdon, Research Consultant, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1961032022-12-08T18:05:18Z2022-12-08T18:05:18ZHow do floating wind turbines work? 5 companies just won the first US leases for building them off California’s coast<p>Northern California has some of the strongest offshore winds in the U.S., with <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/computing-america-s-offshore-wind-energy-potential">immense potential to produce clean energy</a>. But it also has a problem. Its continental shelf drops off quickly, making building traditional wind turbines directly on the seafloor costly if not impossible.</p>
<p>Once water gets more than about 200 feet deep – roughly the height of an 18-story building – these “monopile” structures are pretty much out of the question.</p>
<p>A solution has emerged that’s being tested in several locations around the world: wind turbines that float. </p>
<p>In California, where <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51839">drought has put pressure</a> on the hydropower supply, the state is <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/05/25/california-announces-historic-agreement-with-federal-partners-to-advance-offshore-wind-development/">moving forward on a plan</a> to develop the nation’s first floating offshore wind farms. On Dec. 7, 2022, the federal government auctioned off five lease areas about 20 miles off the California coast to companies with plans to develop floating wind farms. The bids were <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/biden-harris-administration-sets-offshore-energy-records-437-billion-winning-bids-wind">lower than recent leases off the Atlantic coast</a>, where wind farms can be anchored to the seafloor, but still significant, together exceeding <a href="https://doi.gov/pressreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-winners-california-offshore-wind-energy-auction">US$757 million</a>.</p>
<p>So, how do floating wind farms work?</p>
<h2>Three main ways to float a turbine</h2>
<p>A floating wind turbine <a href="https://www.energy.gov/maps/how-does-wind-turbine-work">works just like other wind turbines</a> – wind pushes on the blades, causing the rotor to turn, which drives a generator that creates electricity. But instead of having its tower embedded directly into the ground or the seafloor, a floating wind turbine sits on a platform with mooring lines, such as chains or ropes, that connect to anchors in the seabed below.</p>
<p>These mooring lines hold the turbine in place against the wind and keep it connected to the cable that sends its electricity back to shore.</p>
<p>Most of the stability is provided by the floating platform itself. The trick is to design the platform so the turbine doesn’t tip too far in strong winds or storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration of each in an ocean, showing how lines anchor it to the seafloor." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408280/original/file-20210624-23-g5oqqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three of the common types of floating wind turbine platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2020/nrel-floats-new-offshore-wind-cost-optimization-tool.html">Josh Bauer/NREL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are three main types of platforms:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A spar buoy platform is a long hollow cylinder that extends downward from the turbine tower. It floats vertically in deep water, weighted with ballast in the bottom of the cylinder to lower its center of gravity. It’s then anchored in place, but with slack lines that allow it to move with the water to avoid damage. Spar buoys have been <a href="https://www.rigzone.com/training/insight.asp?insight_id=307&c_id=">used by the oil and gas industry</a> for years for offshore operations.</p></li>
<li><p>Semisubmersible platforms have large floating hulls that spread out from the tower, also anchored to prevent drifting. Designers have been <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/two-headed-floating-offshore-wind-platform-passes-trials">experimenting with multiple turbines</a> on some of these hulls.</p></li>
<li><p>Tension leg platforms have smaller platforms with taut lines running straight to the floor below. These are <a href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1659806">lighter but more vulnerable</a> to earthquakes or tsunamis because they rely more on the mooring lines and anchors for stability.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Each platform must support the weight of the turbine and remain stable while the turbine operates. It can do this in part because the hollow platform, often made of large steel or concrete structures, provides buoyancy to support the turbine. Since some can be fully assembled in port and towed out for installation, they might be <a href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1659806">far cheaper</a> than fixed-bottom structures, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-just-set-ambitious-offshore-wind-power-targets-what-will-it-take-to-meet-them-158136">require specialty vessels</a> for installation on site.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People stand next to a small wind turbine held by a crane. Just the base is three times higher than a human." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411059/original/file-20210713-17-21i31p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The University of Maine has been experimenting with a small floating wind turbine, about one-eighth scale, on a semisubmersible platform with RWE, one of the winning bidders.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FloatingWindTurbine/ea8d528e4f91442c99918e5b7e0388cb/photo">AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Floating platforms can support wind turbines that can produce 10 megawatts or more of power – that’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2020.03.002">similar in size to other offshore wind turbines</a> and several times larger than the capacity of a typical onshore wind turbine you might see in a field.</p>
<h2>Why do we need floating turbines?</h2>
<p>Some of the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/computing-america-s-offshore-wind-energy-potential">strongest wind resources</a> are away from shore in locations with hundreds of feet of water below, such as off the U.S. West Coast, the Great Lakes, the Mediterranean Sea and the coast of Japan.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing offshore wind potential" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408278/original/file-20210624-21-uyv33f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some of the strongest offshore wind power potential in the U.S. is in areas where the water is too deep for fixed turbines, including off the West Coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/computing-america-s-offshore-wind-energy-potential">NREL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. lease areas auctioned off in early December cover about <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/10/21/2022-22871/pacific-wind-lease-sale-1-pacw-1-for-commercial-leasing-for-wind-power-on-the-outer-continental">583 square miles</a> in two regions – one off central California’s Morro Bay and the other near the Oregon state line. The water off California gets deep quickly, so any wind farm that is even a few miles from shore will require floating turbines. </p>
<p>Once built, wind farms in those five areas could provide about 4.6 gigawatts of clean electricity, <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-first-ever-offshore-wind-lease-sale-pacific">enough to power 1.5 million homes</a>, according to government estimates. The winning companies suggested they could <a href="https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/12/07/california-lease-sale-winners-are-rwe-equinor-cip-ocean-winds-and-invenergy-floating-wind-farm-capacities-higher-than-initially-estimated/">produce even more power</a>.</p>
<p>But getting actual wind turbines on the water will take time. The winners of the lease auction will undergo a Justice Department anti-trust review and then a long planning, permitting and environmental review process that typically takes several years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Maps showing the locations off Moro Bay, north of Santa Barbara, and Eureka, near the Oregon border." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=771&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499372/original/file-20221206-16005-wz1k2y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first five federal lease areas for Pacific coast offshore wind energy development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/renewable-energy/state-activities/CA%20FSN%20Lease%20Area%20Maps.pdf">Bureau of Ocean Energy Management</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="mBH0o" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mBH0o/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Globally, several full-scale demonstration projects with floating wind turbines are already operating in Europe and Asia. The <a href="https://us.orsted.com/wind-projects">Hywind Scotland project</a> became the first commercial-scale offshore floating wind farm in 2017, with five 6-megawatt turbines supported by spar buoys designed by the <a href="https://www.equinor.com/energy/floating-wind">Norwegian energy company Equinor</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.equinor.com/news/20221207-lease-california-floating-offshore-wind">Equinor Wind US</a> had one of the winning bids off Central California. Another winning bidder was <a href="https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-renewables/2022-12-07-california-offshore-auction">RWE Offshore Wind Holdings</a>. RWE operates wind farms in Europe and has <a href="https://www.rwe.com/en/research-and-development/wind-power/floating-offshore-wind#projects">three floating wind turbine demonstration projects</a>. The other companies involved – <a href="https://kommunikasjon.ntb.no/pressemelding/copenhagen-infrastructure-partners-announced-as-provisional-winner-of-lease-area-in-california-offshore-auction?publisherId=4954260&releaseId=17949593">Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners</a>, Invenergy and <a href="https://www.oceanwinds.com/news/uncategorized/golden-state-wind-a-joint-venture-of-ocean-winds-and-cpp-investments-wins-2-gw-california-wind-energy-lease/">Ocean Winds</a> – have Atlantic Coast leases or existing offshore wind farms. </p>
<p>While floating offshore wind farms are becoming a commercial technology, there are still technical challenges that need to be solved. The platform motion may cause higher forces on the blades and tower, and more complicated and unsteady aerodynamics. Also, as water depths get very deep, the cost of the mooring lines, anchors and electrical cabling may become very high, so cheaper but still reliable technologies will be needed.</p>
<p>But we can expect to see more offshore turbines supported by floating structures in the near future.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated with the first lease sale.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Lackner receives funding from the U.S. Department of Energy.</span></em></p>Some of the most powerful offshore wind is over water too deep for a standard wind turbine. Engineers found a way around the problem.Matthew Lackner, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1956132022-12-01T16:51:32Z2022-12-01T16:51:32ZOnshore wind rebellion reveals fractious climate politics within the Conservative party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498498/original/file-20221201-14-emcsdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Head / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Campaigners have sought to overturn planning restrictions banning onshore windfarms ever since then UK prime minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/onshore-wind-farm-restrictions-continue-to-stifle-britains-renewable-energy-potential-147812">David Cameron introduced them</a> in 2015. This year, however, there have been signs of movement.</p>
<p>Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson reportedly wanted to allow more onshore wind farms via the April 2022 energy security strategy, but was forced to <a href="https://inews.co.uk/opinion/energy-security-strategy-boris-johnson-prisoner-own-cabinet-1562251">water down his plans</a> in the face of last-minute backbench and cabinet opposition. Under another former prime minister, Liz Truss, the short-lived growth plan included a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e10ac4ec-ab4e-452f-ad30-72a4af2d5f2f">relaxation of onshore wind planning restrictions</a>.</p>
<p>Current UK prime minister Rishi Sunak was asked about onshore wind <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-26/debates/DA634E71-6A00-4C9C-8D40-CCE730776B42/Engagements">in his first prime minister’s questions</a> and implied he would not be going ahead with any loosening of restrictions. However, a group of Conservative backbenchers are now pushing an amendment to the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill to force the government to do so. With Labour’s support they appear to have the numbers to pass it and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/28/no-10-set-to-allow-new-onshore-wind-projects-in-england-in-u-turn">the government has suggested it is willing to compromise</a>, though the nature and extent of this is yet to be seen. So, why is this issue back on the agenda?</p>
<h2>Friends and foes of onshore wind</h2>
<p>This recent row follows an eventful few years in the Conservative party’s approach to the net-zero challenge, something the environmental politics professor Neil Carter and I <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-022-00222-x">recently published a study on</a>.</p>
<p>In imposing the original block on onshore wind projects, Cameron was responding to significant hostility from a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/bp.2015.16">group of Conservative backbenchers</a> who had mobilised during the course of the 2010-2015 coalition government. It appears that they had a variety of motivations including personal objections to their visual impact, ideological antipathy to climate policies, and a belief that they were representing the concerns of their constituents or local Conservative activists. Many of those MPs are still in Parliament and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5b08507d-ae4b-47d1-afb7-ae851f98d6d8">have not changed their views</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, those wishing to remove the onshore wind planning restrictions have always had a fairly powerful case. After all, they have been advocating for a technology which can not only cut emissions but, as the <a href="https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2017/britain-in-1bn-block-on-cheapest-energy-technology">cheapest form of new power generation</a>, can also <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-gas-imports-would-be-13-lower-if-it-had-not-cut-the-green-crap/">reduce energy bills</a>. Polling has also shown consistent support, in principle at least, for onshore wind deployment <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/if-a-mere-murmur-of-dissent-can-blow-the-pm-off-course-he-will-never-get-anything-done-v8fvsxp93">even among Conservative voters</a>. (As an aside, polling of Conservative MPs suggests they <a href="https://twitter.com/ECIU_UK/status/1594016174714413056">tend to underestimate public support</a> for onshore wind).</p>
<p>Ideologically, many in the parliamentary Conservative party should be amenable to supporting onshore wind, since the campaigners’ main request is just for government to get out of the way by relaxing planning constraints. This is in contrast to many other policies to tackle climate change which can be difficult for some Conservatives to support because they involve government intervention through subsidies, taxes or regulations.</p>
<h2>Exploiting the opportunity</h2>
<p>The energy crisis brought on by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine appears to have acted as a <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2020/06/19/policy-concepts-in-1000-words-policy-change/">focusing event</a>, with the UK government suddenly particularly keen to cut energy bills and bolster energy security. An added advantage of onshore wind farms in this context is that they can be constructed relatively quickly. That said, it is notable that even in an emergency situation, the government response on this so far has been more of a tortured back-and-forth than a straightforward policy change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wind turbine under construction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498490/original/file-20221201-24-ekmw8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Faster than building new nuclear, gas or offshore wind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jacques Tarnero / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Academics who research the process of policy change often emphasise the role of <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2015/02/03/what-is-a-policy-entrepreneur/">policy entrepreneurs</a> who are able to exploit windows of opportunity. In this case the Conservative MP Simon Clarke, who recently <a href="https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/housing-secretary-simon-clarke-leaves-role-after-49-days-78686">resigned as housing and levelling up secretary</a>, tabled the amendment on onshore wind having promoted it <a href="https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/180516165631-CPSNewBlueEmbargoedTuesday100015thMay.pdf">since entering parliament</a>.</p>
<p>Some of the divisions between Conservative MPs help explain the contentious politics of onshore wind in recent months. The divide between passionate advocates of net zero and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-022-00222-x">those who are more sceptical</a> is well known. But there is also a divide between those who say “yes in my backyard” (yimbys) <a href="https://samf.substack.com/p/yimbys-nimbys-and-the-battle-for"> and nimbys</a> or <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/three-tribes-of-tory-produce-turbulence-for-their-new-leader-ksjzpx682">mercantilists and romanticists</a>: Conservatives who are focused on kickstarting economic growth and Conservatives who are highly resistant to building or development projects (often due to fear of opposition in their constituencies). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="'Frack free Lancashire' sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498488/original/file-20221201-14-aex0bn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fracking nimbys are aligned with environmentalists.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">seeshooteatrepeat / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this sense, the onshore wind debate is distinct from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fracking-holds-such-symbolic-power-for-the-conservative-right-191393">fracking debates within the Conservative party</a> where the interests of nimbys and advocates of climate policies are more aligned.</p>
<p>This episode also reflects a classic understanding of governing in Britain: that the executive can generally ignore the opposition but <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/439626">not their own backbench MPs</a>, who are able to drive major policy changes. Labour has <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41293-022-00222-x">consistently supported onshore wind</a> in recent years, but it is only internal dissent which has forced the Sunak administration into listening mode. The ongoing quest to respond to the rebels’ aims is a textbook example of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12149">pre-emptive party management</a> British governments usually engage in to avoid the embarrassment of a parliamentary defeat.</p>
<p>However <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/28/rishi-sunak-searches-for-tory-compromise-over-onshore-wind-u-turn">Sunak decides to adjudicate</a> between the differing views of onshore wind among his MPs, it is unlikely to be the last time a Conservative leader finds themselves pulled in different directions on climate and energy policy.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mitya Pearson receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>An influential group of the UK prime minister’s own backbenchers want more wind farms.Mitya Pearson, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936922022-11-16T13:11:01Z2022-11-16T13:11:01ZRenewable energy will need more investment, or Africa will stay dependent on fossil fuels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494853/original/file-20221111-17-1d7elu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4994%2C3267&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hydro-power is not sustainable to meet sub-Saharan Africa's energy needs and must be supported wind, solar and geothemal.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/photo-taken-on-april-12-2012-shows-the-masinga-hydro-news-photo/145520563?phrase=hydropower%20in%20Kenya&adppopup=true">Photo by Tony Karumbu/AFP.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power can help sub-Saharan Africa meet its energy requirements from sources that have lower emissions than fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Currently, the sub-continent gets 0.01% of its energy supply from wind, 2% from solar, about 4%-5% from geothermal, 17% from hydro and <a href="https://www.un.org/osaa/sites/www.un.org.osaa/files/concept_note_-_energy_innovation_and_technologies_for_universal_access_and_just_transition_for_africa_9june2022.pdf">77% from fossil fuel</a>. About <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/international-emissions/#:%7E:text=Globally%2C%20the%20primary%20sources%20of,72%20percent%20of%20all%20emissions.">70%</a> of current greenhouse gas emissions come from the global energy sector.</p>
<p>Clearly sub-Saharan Africa needs to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Even though its greenhouse gas emissions account for only <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=ZG">3%</a> of global emissions, the region’s reliance could be the source of a future carbon tsunami. This would happen if energy demand skyrocketed on the back of rapid <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-8-billionth-person-is-born-heres-how-africa-will-shape-the-future-of-the-planets-population-194067">population growth</a>, <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/africas-urbanisation-dynamics-2022-economic-power-africas-cities">urbanisation</a> and economic growth. </p>
<p>There are many who advocate a move to hydropower, which currently accounts for <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">17%</a> of the continent’s energy mix. And the trend is to increase its share.</p>
<iframe title="Africa’s installed energy mixes " aria-label="Pie Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-3T99M" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3T99M/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="520" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>But I believe there are dangers in this. Based on <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/5/84">my research</a>, and the work of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082621000259">others</a>, I would argue that there are three reasons to suggest that African countries need to diversify their energy sources and avoid a very high dependency on hydropower.</p>
<p>The main concern is climate uncertainty. This could potentially pose a threat to hydropower generation. Generating energy from hydropower depends on precipitation and temperature patterns. Heavier rains and more prolonged droughts will affect the ability of countries to produce hydropower. </p>
<p>The second concern is related: developing hydropower facilities takes decades. It’s hard to plan that far ahead when future climate conditions are uncertain. </p>
<p>And the third difficulty is that the region is vulnerable to water shortages and is already experiencing the consequences. </p>
<p>These obstacles call for energy diversification to solar, wind and geothermal. The cost of solar has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/most-new-wind-solar-projects-cheaper-than-coal-report">declined</a> by 85% and that of wind by 56% in the last year alone. This makes these technologies much more affordable and accessible. </p>
<p>But policy barriers currently impede the development, use and application of these low-carbon energy technologies. </p>
<h2>Dangers ahead for hydropower</h2>
<p>The intensity and duration of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915522000128">precipitation</a> varies across sub-Saharan countries and regions. For example, in southern Africa in 2020 precipitation was less than the historical average for the region. </p>
<p>In other areas, <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3_ch3">wetter weather</a> is expected through to 2100. In the eastern African region this period is projected to be wetter and accompanied by heavy rains. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3273">Variability between years</a> and heavy floods can make managing dams difficult, and disrupt the electricity supply.</p>
<p>This has already been seen to happen. Heavy floods and wreckage have disrupted the operation of dams in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi. In the case of Malawi, this significantly reduced hydropower <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/">generation capacity in 2019</a>).</p>
<p>Variations between years in rainfall and evaporation affect stream flow and determine hydropower generation output. </p>
<iframe title="Hydropower generation in TWh " aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gu9hW" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gu9hW/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="405" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>As shown in this image, the historical data in selected sub-Saharan countries demonstrate the variations in <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/hydropower-data-explorer">hydropower generation</a>. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which carries 42% of the global hydropower potential, shows fluctuations in production. For instance, the DRC’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/hydropower-data-explorer">hydropower generation capacity</a> was reduced 6.1 TWh in 1996 to 4.7 TWh in 1998 (a fall of 22.95%). The hydropower generation capacity in Nigeria was reduced by 27.4% from 2007 to 2009 and 42.3% from 2005 to 2009. Similarly, Kenyan hydropower generation capacity was reduced by 60.6% from 1998 to 2000 and 37.14% from 2008 to 2009. These variations are significant.</p>
<p>The second challenge is that hydropower plants are long-term projects which could last up to 100 years. Under uncertainty about future potential impacts of climate change, it will be risky to build hydropower plants. They might not be sustainable.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-energy-crisis-is-pressuring-countries-climate-plans-while-some-race-to-renewables-others-see-wealth-in-natural-gas-but-drilling-benefits-may-be-short-lived-193944">How the energy crisis is pressuring countries' climate plans – while some race to renewables, others see wealth in natural gas, but drilling benefits may be short-lived</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Thirdly, competition for water between industries, energy, domestic use and irrigation is expected to increase the stress on water availability. Water scarcity would be a critical impediment to supplying Africa’s growing energy needs with hydropower. According to projections, the African population will reach <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224205/forecast-of-the-total-population-of-africa/#:%7E:text=According%20to%20the%20forecast%2C%20Africa's,nearly%202.5%20billion%20by%202050">2.5 billion</a> in 2050. An additional 1.7 billion people will need energy, water and food. As of 2021, out of a 1.4 billion population, 600 million people do not have access to <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Jan/Renewable-Energy-Market-Analysis-Africa">electricity</a>. The same water is used for drinking water, industry, irrigation and food production. This implies that water stress comes from a multitude of directions, including climate change and socioeconomic development.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.opml.co.uk/blog/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-hydropower-in-africa">80%</a> of the energy generation from hydropower comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia. In my view, all should diversify their energy sources to other renewable to make their energy supply climate resilient and sustainable.</p>
<h2>Barriers to solar and wind</h2>
<p>Policy <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148100001865">studies</a> have identified five major barriers to the development and uptake of solar and wind technologies in sub-Saharan Africa:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>institutional – lack of coordination between different organisations </p></li>
<li><p>technical – a trained labour force and expertise to implement, regulate and monitor technologies</p></li>
<li><p>socio-cultural – low acceptance of the technologies </p></li>
<li><p>financial barriers – lack of subsidies and incentives, and fragmented taxation </p></li>
<li><p>regulatory – weak bodies and problems with land leasing processes. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These barriers are intertwined and reinforce one another. For example, the lack of an independent regulatory system creates unpredictability and deters investment. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>There is a tremendous chasm between aspirations and policy execution in Africa. To close this gap the following steps need to be taken.</p>
<p>Policy barriers must be lifted and there needs to be better co-ordination between the various players. </p>
<p>Secondly, financial limitations must be eased. The debt-laden climate finance structure must be revised. <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-finance-for-africa-the-key-challenges-and-what-needs-to-be-done-about-them-194150">Climate finance</a> for the most vulnerable countries is scarce and the application process is long and cumbersome when the opportunity arises. Climate finance should be need-based and practical to help the most vulnerable and bridge the chasm between financial need and supply. </p>
<p>In addition, development banks and donors need to champion and invest in the areas considered risky by private businesses. They need to lay the business foundations to make the sector attractive for private investments. In return, governments must adopt <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-hooked-on-fossil-fuels-how-it-got-here-and-how-it-can-get-out-193750">policies and strategies</a> that encourage private investments in solar, wind, and geothermal technologies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193692/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abay Yimere does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To address Africa’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels and hydropower, there is a need for investment in renewable energy sources like wind and solar.Abay Yimere, Postdoctoral Scholar in International Environment and Resource Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1902412022-09-21T20:01:27Z2022-09-21T20:01:27ZThere’s a huge surge in solar production under way – and Australia could show the world how to use it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484768/original/file-20220915-9486-eycl4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C11%2C3822%2C2144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You might feel despondent after reading <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2022/09/02/despite-climate-commitments-the-eu-is-going-back-to-coal_5995594_19.html">news reports</a> about countries doubling down on fossil fuels to cope with energy price spikes. </p>
<p>Don’t. It’s a blip. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a temporary fossil fuel resurgence, it also <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-directive-targets-and-rules/renewable-energy-targets_en">accelerated</a> Europe’s renewable ambitions. And the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-finally-passed-a-huge-climate-bill-australia-needs-to-keep-up-188525">United States</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102">Australia</a> have finally passed climate bills. This week, federal energy minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/australia-is-back-chris-bowen-spruiks-climate-agenda-on-world-stage-20220920-p5bjlh.html">announced</a> “Australia is back” on climate action. </p>
<p>There’s better news too. In March this year, the <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/15/humans-have-installed-1-terawatt-of-solar-capacity/">world hit one terawatt</a> of installed solar. By 2025, the world’s polysilicon factories are predicted to bounce back from <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/04/20/polysilicon-maker-predicts-5-year-shortage-of-solar-raw-material/">supply shortages</a> and churn out enough high-purity silicon for almost one terawatt of solar panels <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-06/solar-industry-supply-chain-that-will-beat-climate-change-is-already-being-built?leadSource=uverify%20wall">every year</a>. </p>
<p>Coupled with major growth in wind, pumped hydro, energy storage, grid batteries
and electric vehicles, the solar boom puts <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/record-clean-energy-spending-is-set-to-help-global-energy-investment-grow-by-8-in-2022">zero global emissions within reach</a> before 2050. </p>
<p>Best of all – Australia could show the world how to add solar to their grid. You might not suspect it, but we’re the <a href="https://energycentral.com/c/cp/dramatic-changes-australia-illustrate-future-american-electricity-system">global leaders</a> in finding <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/news-updates/roadmap-sets-pathway-for-reform-implementation-in-the-nem">straightforward solutions</a> to the variability of solar power and wind. We’re showing that it’s easier to get carbon emissions out of electricity generation than many predicted. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484769/original/file-20220915-1785-rd0s3e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar power will ramp up sharply, if supply chain investment is any guide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rapid, deep and cheap emissions reductions</h2>
<p>This surge in the renewable supply chain allows sustained exponential growth that is already disrupting fossil fuel markets in some countries, notably Australia. </p>
<p>This year, global fossil fuel prices have <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-bills-are-spiking-after-the-russian-invasion-we-should-have-doubled-down-on-renewables-years-ago-179336">skyrocketed</a> in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In turn, that’s generated intense interest in solar and wind energy to boost domestic energy security, particularly in Europe, which needs to <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/09/russia-gas-war-europe-desperation">wean itself</a> off Russian gas. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1564623261803200516"}"></div></p>
<p>While fossil fuels are concentrated in countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Australia, solar and wind resources are widely distributed. Most countries can generate all their own energy from the <a href="https://globalsolaratlas.info/">sun</a> and <a href="https://globalwindatlas.info/">wind</a>. </p>
<p>Europe could readily become energy independent, harnessing its enormous North Sea offshore wind resources and solar in the south. Even densely populated countries such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890422000954">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/17/5424">Indonesia</a> have far more solar and wind resources than they need.</p>
<p>Solar and wind now provide the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/executive-summary">cheapest new electricity generation</a> in most markets. As a bonus, the widespread uptake of solar and wind will eliminate many of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/really-australia-its-not-that-hard-10-reasons-why-renewable-energy-is-the-future-130459">worst air pollutants</a> and improve our health.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-get-to-net-zero-emissions-much-quicker-than-2050-if-our-politics-was-a-force-for-change-heres-how-176806">Australia could get to net zero emissions much quicker than 2050 – if our politics was a force for change. Here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why are solar and wind winning?</h2>
<p>In a word, cost. Solar and wind have won the race for the energy of the future because they are cheap. Once built, the fuel is free, and does not need to be imported or dug up. </p>
<p>Wind and solar are being built <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewables-snapshot-are-we-on-track-to-decarbonise-the-globe/">three times faster</a> than everything else combined. It follows they will dominate future energy markets as existing fossil fuel generators retire and electricity use grows rapidly. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="graph solar and other power sources" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484801/original/file-20220915-25774-trnifk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global net generation capacity additions. Adapted from IRENA, CER, GWEC, WNA, GEM, ITRPV and IEA data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nuclear generation <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme.aspx">hasn’t grown</a> in the past decade. Coal and gas plants able to capture and store carbon have not got traction in the energy market. Hydroelectricity can’t expand much further. There will, however, be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/batteries-get-hyped-but-pumped-hydro-provides-the-vast-majority-of-long-term-energy-storage-essential-for-renewable-power-heres-how-it-works-174446">huge market</a> for off-river pumped hydro energy storage. </p>
<p>There are no serious technical, environmental or material constraints to solar power on any scale. However, solar has been hit by supply chain issues in recent months, with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/solar-panel-material-polysilicon-is-extending-a-price-rally?leadSource=uverify%20wall">major price spikes</a> in polysilicon. These are common to any rapidly growing industry, and should resolve as more suppliers see the opportunity and enter the market. </p>
<h2>There is enough land</h2>
<p>Most of the world’s population live at moderate latitudes with good sunshine on most days. Here, solar is effectively unlimited. Those further north have abundant wind energy (particularly <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/top-10-things-you-didnt-know-about-offshore-wind-energy">offshore wind</a>) to offset weaker solar in winter.</p>
<p>Sceptics point out you need more land or sea to produce the same amount of electricity as fossil fuel plants. While true, solar farms <a href="https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/studies/agrivoltaics-opportunities-for-agriculture-and-the-energy-transition.html">can happily coexist</a> with livestock and cropping to create a double income for farmers. The solar electricity needed to power the world and eliminate all fossil fuels can be generated from about 1% of the land area <a href="https://www.fao.org/sustainability/news/detail/en/c/1274219/">devoted to agriculture</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map of solar resources" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484804/original/file-20220915-12008-to4iha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most of the global population lives between the 35th parallels (the red lines) where there are good solar resources. Redder areas mean better solar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World Bank</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once we have cheap clean electricity, we can use it to eliminate the use of fossil fuels altogether by electrifying nearly everything: transport, heating, industry and chemical production. This could reduce emissions by three quarters.</p>
<p>Global electricity production will need to rise sevenfold to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">about 200,000 terawatt-hours</a> a year to give everyone the energy needed to reach developed nation living standards. But this is not all that hard over the next 30 years. And the alternative – keep pumping warming pollutants into the atmosphere – will make the lives of our children harder and harder. </p>
<p>Together, solar and wind have <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Apr/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2022">passed two terawatts</a> of installed capacity. That means we’re about 2% of the way to reaching the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abeb5b">almost 100 terawatts</a> of solar and wind required to decarbonise the world, while raising living standards. </p>
<p>Annual solar deployment needs to double every four years to get the job done by 2050–60 – similar to the global growth rate achieved over the past decade. </p>
<h2>Australia can show the way</h2>
<p>You might not think it, given the decade of political climate wars, but Australia is the world leader in terms of solar electricity produced per person. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="graph showing australia solar uptakeq" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485246/original/file-20220919-16-hydelp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s solar uptake dwarfs all other countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Blakers</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Australia, solar and wind are booming while coal is <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian%20Energy%20Statistics%2C%20Table%20O%20Electricity%20generation%20by%20fuel%20type%202019-20%20and%202020.pdf">rapidly falling</a>. We’re already on track to reach 80-90% renewables by 2030. Remarkably, our per capita solar generation is twice as large as the second placed countries (Germany, Japan and the Netherlands) and far ahead of China and the USA.</p>
<p>Australia is quietly demonstrating how to accommodate huge new flows of cheap, clean electricity. The world will soon follow suit. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-net-zero-we-should-if-we-can-cool-the-planet-back-to-pre-industrial-levels-187781">Beyond net-zero: we should, if we can, cool the planet back to pre-industrial levels</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Blakers receives funding from ARENA and DFAT.</span></em></p>By 2025, factories are on track to churn out enough silicon to produce the equivalent of all installed solar – every year.Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888652022-08-23T12:24:41Z2022-08-23T12:24:41ZA tale of two climate policies: India’s UN commitments aim low, but its national policies are ambitious – here’s why that matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480454/original/file-20220822-64771-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C39%2C2915%2C1812&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Indian government is encouraging the use of electric vehicles, particularly scooters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-cycling-and-using-electric-scooters-at-rajpath-on-news-photo/1227977178">Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow in 2021, Indian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-surprises-cop26-climate-summit-2070-target-net-zero-emissions-n1282933">Narendra Modi surprised the world when he announced</a> that his country would zero out its greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2070. It was a landmark decision, acknowledging that long-term decarbonization is in India’s interest.</p>
<p>However, climate change is threatening lives, crops and India’s economy today. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61242341">New Delhi endured extreme heat</a> for several weeks in early 2022, with temperatures regularly crossing 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 Celsius). The previous year, cyclones, flash floods and extreme rainfall destroyed more than <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/climate-crisis-has-cost-india-5-million-hectares-of-crop-in-2021-80809">12 million acres of crops</a>, contributing to a global spike in food prices. At the same time, energy demand is rising in a country forecast to pass China as the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf">world’s most populous</a> in 2023.</p>
<p>So, when the dust settled around the net zero announcement, scrutiny turned to India’s short-term ambitions for the coming decade. </p>
<p>On Aug. 26, 2022, India <a href="https://unfccc.int/NDCREG">formally submitted</a> its <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-08/India%20Updated%20First%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contrib.pdf">second set of international climate commitments</a>, known as its <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/all-about-ndcs">Nationally Determined Contribution</a>, or NDC, to the United Nations, including its short-term climate targets and strategies for meeting them.</p>
<p>India has the potential to set the tone for emerging economies’ climate action over the coming decade. However, its NDC commitments significantly understate the ambition in its own national climate policies. These mixed signals could slow down India’s burgeoning energy transition and hamper its ability to raise international climate finance.</p>
<h2>India’s 2030 climate targets</h2>
<p>India’s new climate commitments include <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1847812">two primary targets for 2030</a>. One is to reduce <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/what-is-the-difference-between-absolute-emissions-and-emissions-intensity/">emissions per unit of gross domestic product</a>, or GDP, by 45%, relative to the year 2005. The other is to increase “non-fossil” electricity – solar, wind, nuclear and hydropower – to half of the country’s electricity capacity.</p>
<p>While these targets are an improvement over India’s commitments when it joined the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a> in 2015, they are largely a continuation of the country’s “business-as-usual” emissions trajectory. A fast-growing country can reduce its emissions per GDP and increase its emissions.</p>
<p>Views differ on whether this is acceptable. There is considerable debate around what each country’s “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504">fair share” of the global carbon budget is</a>, given industrialized countries’ significantly larger contribution to per capita and cumulative greenhouse emissions.</p>
<p><iframe id="HzkZV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HzkZV/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>India’s state climate policies are more ambitious</h2>
<p>India currently meets about a <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/annual-reports-year-wise-ministry">quarter of its electricity demand</a> with nonfossil energy, about <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india">160 gigawatts of power generation capacity</a> in all. It added 15.4 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity in 2021-22, the <a href="https://www.ren21.net/reports/global-status-report/">third-highest increase in the world</a>.</p>
<p>In its national policies, India has stated that it intends to more than triple nonfossil electricity capacity to <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1772347">500 gigawatts by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>That’s an ambitious increase, but it draws inspiration from evolving realities: Electricity generated from renewables is now cheaper at auction than coal-fired power. Renewable energy with energy storage is also expected to be <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/solar-and-wind-power-costs-in-india-will-be-comparable-to-coal-in-2025-moodys/79300584">cheaper than coal</a> within this decade, driven partly by the government’s <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1846078">$2.5 billion boost</a> for energy storage manufacturing in India.</p>
<p>Displacing coal as the grid’s primary generation source seems technically and economically viable at last.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man crouches in a field, inspecting crops. Behind him are a line of solar panels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480456/original/file-20220822-76791-ep6i7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer works near solar panels in a village about 30 miles from Ahmedabad.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-works-near-solar-panels-installed-in-a-farmland-at-news-photo/1230949710">Sam Panthaky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The counterpoint is that India has set and missed ambitious renewable energy targets before – it will fall short of its goal, set in 2010, of reaching 100 gigawatts of solar and 60 gigawatts of wind power capacity <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/india-investment-renewables-green-energy/">by 2022</a>. This may partially explain the reluctance to formally commit to higher international targets.</p>
<p>The government is also <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/">still granting loans for new coal power plants</a> and providing higher subsidies for coal than for renewable energy. These are legacies of its “<a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-policy-pathways-for-deep-decarbonisation/">all-of-the-above” energy policy</a> driven by the continuing need to drastically improve affordable energy access. While the government is beginning to consider what a “<a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/WCMS_824102/lang--en/index.htm">just transition</a>” away from coal would cost, it is planning for an <a href="https://coal.nic.in/sites/default/files/2022-05/31-05-2022a-wn.pdf">increase in coal production</a> for power generation and industrial processes over the coming decade. </p>
<p><iframe id="jP6ah" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jP6ah/8/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>There’s a similar contrast between India’s national policies on clean transportation and industrial decarbonization and its international commitments.</p>
<p>The government is aiming for <a href="https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/rmi-niti-ev-report.pdf">electric vehicles</a> to be 30% of private car sales, 70% of commercial vehicle sales and 80% of two- and three-wheeler sales by 2030. It initiated a national mission in 2019 to create a domestic EV and battery manufacturing base with a <a href="https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/news/indian-government-gives-huge-boost-to-evs-with-10x-budget-under-second-phase-of-fame-scheme-363015.html">$1.2 billion budget</a>. This includes expanding charging infrastructure from 2,000 to tens of thousands of locations nationwide <a href="https://www.niti.gov.in/index.php/node/1579">over the coming decade</a>. Indian Railways, the fourth-largest in the world, has a goal of being a zero emissions network <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1638269">by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>For industry, India has efficiency targets in 13 energy-intensive sectors, including cement and thermal power plants, and a market to trade energy savings certificates between companies. Last year, the government said the program prevented the release of <a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1725448">87 million metric tons of carbon dioxide</a>, or approximately 3% of the country’s annual emissions.</p>
<p>If these policies are fully implemented, India’s emissions trajectory is almost certain to be lower than its U.N. commitment implies. But these sectors do not feature in its commitments.</p>
<h2>Parliament weighs legally enforceable targets</h2>
<p>The Indian Parliament is about to elevate some of these policy targets to legally enforceable mandates. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-energy-conservation-amendment-bill-2022">Energy Conservation Amendment</a>, passed by the lower house, proposes renewable power purchase targets for industries, inclusion of large residential buildings in the energy conservation code, and energy consumption standards for vehicles and vessels. It also empowers the government to create a national carbon trading market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People walk in a heavy downpour. One man is drenched, and even umbrellas don't seem to be helping." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480455/original/file-20220822-70261-oiw0x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India has faced both record deluges and extreme heat in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-indian-man-walks-through-heavy-rain-along-a-street-in-news-photo/932770726">Biju Boro/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The private sector is paying attention to these policy signals, the falling cost of producing clean electricity and transportation, and the projected rising energy demand as the country develops. India’s largest conglomerates have set aggressive <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/view-private-sector-driving-renewable-energy-wave-in-india/articleshow/90724802.cms?from=mdr">renewable electricity expansion targets</a>. Indian automakers are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/indian-businesses-seek-government-support-meet-2030-ev-target-2021-10-14/">competing to invest</a> in EV manufacturing and pushing the government to speed up disbursement of subsidies and incentives. But the same conglomerates are also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-adani-power-buy-db-power-879-mln-2022-08-19/">expanding coal investments</a>, illustrating the importance of avoiding mixed policy signals.</p>
<h2>Positive effects on economies and employment</h2>
<p>Bold targets are useful, even if there is uncertainty around how they will be met.</p>
<p>I have followed developing countries’ international commitments while working on climate policy with New Delhi think tanks <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/cierp/tarun-gopalakrishnan-junior-fellow/">and Tufts University</a>, and I have participated in international negotiations <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/overview">as an observer</a>.</p>
<p>India’s mixed messaging on climate targets is part of a broader <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/08/15/after-finally-passing-a-climate-bill-us-calls-on-others-to-act/">reluctance among large developing economies</a> to accelerate their efforts to rein in climate change without <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/the-big-picture/introduction-to-climate-finance">finance from developed countries</a>. Developed countries in 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf">promised to deliver $100 billion a year</a> for decarbonization and adaptation in developing economies, but they <a href="https://us.boell.org/en/2021/10/25/broken-promises-developed-countries-fail-keep-their-100-billion-dollar-climate-pledge">have yet to meet that target</a>. </p>
<p>Our research at Tufts University’s <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-policy-pathways-for-deep-decarbonisation/">Climate Policy Lab</a> indicates that ambitious climate policies supported by international finance have a positive effect on GDP and employment. Communicating its national ambitions in its <a href="https://100re-map.net/conditional-and-unconditional-climate-action-in-ndcs/">conditional NDC targets</a> could have done more to attract the international finance India needs to fully implement them.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated with India submitting its NDC on Aug. 26, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188865/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tarun Gopalakrishnan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India’s international climate pledge could set the tone for other emerging economies for a decade.Tarun Gopalakrishnan, Junior Fellow, Climate Lab, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.