tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/2020-us-elections-68297/articles2020 US elections – The Conversation2024-03-14T12:44:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222152024-03-14T12:44:55Z2024-03-14T12:44:55ZTrump nearly derailed democracy once − here’s what to watch out for in reelection campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580558/original/file-20240307-22-g07jxw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6390%2C4780&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'We did win this election,' said then-President Donald Trump at the White House early on Nov. 4, 2020, on what was still election night.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-november-04-2020-news-photo/1229450800?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are the bedrock of democracy, essential for choosing representatives and holding them accountable. </p>
<p>The U.S. is a flawed democracy. The Electoral College and the Senate make voters in less populous states far more influential than those in the more populous: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/">Wyoming residents have almost four times the voting power of Californians</a>. </p>
<p>Ever since the Civil War, however, reforms have sought to remedy other flaws, ensuring that citizenship’s full benefits, including the right to vote, were provided to formerly enslaved people, women and Native Americans; establishing the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/369/186/">constitutional standard of one person, one vote</a>; and eliminating barriers to voting through the 1965 <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43626/15">Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has, in recent years, <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96">narrowly construed the Voting Rights Act</a> and <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422">limited courts’ ability to redress gerrymandering</a>, the drawing of voting districts to ensure one party wins. </p>
<p>The 2020 election revealed even more disturbing threats to democracy. As I explain in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Autocrats-Seek-Power-Resistance-to-Trump-and-Trumpism/Abel/p/book/9781032625843">my book</a>, “How Autocrats Seek Power,” Donald Trump lost his reelection bid in 2020 but refused to accept the results. He tried every trick in the book – and then some – to alter the outcome of this bedrock exercise in democracy.</p>
<p>A recent New York Times story reports that when it comes to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/us/politics/trump-presidency-election-voters.html">Trump’s time in office and his attempt to overturn the 2020 election</a>, “voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics.” This, then, is a refresher about Trump’s handling of the election, both before and after Nov. 3, 2020.</p>
<p>Trump began with a classic autocrat’s strategy – casting doubt on elections in advance to lay the groundwork for challenging an unfavorable outcome.</p>
<p>Despite his efforts, Trump was unable to control or change the election results. And that was because of the work of others to stop him.</p>
<p>Here are four things Trump tried to do to flip the election in his favor – and examples of how he was stopped, both by individuals and democratic institutions.</p>
<p><strong>Anticipating defeat</strong> </p>
<p>Expecting to lose in November 2020, in part because of his disastrous handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, <a href="https://time.com/5514115/trump-rampant-voter-fraud-texas/">Trump proclaimed that</a> “all over the country, especially in California, voter fraud is rampant.” He called <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/politics/trump-michigan-vote-by-mail.html">mail ballots “a very dangerous thing</a>.” Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and aide, declined to “commit one way or the other” about whether the election would be held in November, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/jared-kushner-election-delay-coronavirus/">because of the COVID pandemic</a>. No efforts to postpone the election ensued.</p>
<p>Trump warned that Russia and China would “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mail-in-voting-foreign-intervention.html">be able to forge ballots</a>,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/26/trumps-corruption-election-just-took-hit-theres-still-problem/">a myth echoed by Attorney General William Barr</a>. Trump illegally threatened to have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/trump-election-day-sheriffs/index.html">law enforcement officers at polling places</a>. He falsely asserted that Kamala Harris “doesn’t meet the requirements” for serving as vice president <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/trump-2020-election.html?searchResultPosition=3">because her parents were immigrants</a>. Asked if he would agree to a transition if he lost, he responded: “There won’t be a transfer, frankly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/trump-power-transfer-2020-election.html">There’ll be a continuation</a>.” </p>
<p><strong>Threatening litigation</strong></p>
<p>Aware that polls showed Biden ahead by 8 percentage points, Trump declared, “As soon as that election is over, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/02/trump-lawyers-election-biden-pennsylvania/">we’re going in with our lawyers</a>,” and they did just that. Adviser Steve Bannon correctly predicted that on Election Night, “Trump’s gonna walk into the Oval (Office), tweet out, ‘I’m the winner. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/14/steve-bannon-leaked-audio-trump-jan-6-investigation/">Game over, suck on that</a>.’” </p>
<p>Trump followed the script, asserting at 2:30 am: “we did win this election. … <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/13/book-excerpt-i-alone-can-fix-it/">This is a major fraud in our nation</a>,” though the actual results weren’t clear until days later, when, on Nov. 7, the networks declared Biden had won.</p>
<p>Although many advisers said he had lost, Trump kept claiming fraud, repeating Rudy Giuliani’s false allegation that Dominion election machines had switched votes – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-criminal-case.html;%20https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/us/politics/trump-meadows-republicans-congress-jan-6.html;%20https://apnews.com/article/fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-trial-trump-2020-0ac71f75acfacc52ea80b3e747fb0afe">a lie for which Fox News agreed to pay $787 million</a> to settle the defamation case brought by Dominion.</p>
<p><strong>Taking direct action</strong></p>
<p>Trump allies pressured state legislators to create false, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/06/fake-trump-electors-ga-told-shroud-plans-secrecy-email-shows/">“alternative” slates of electors</a> as a key strategy for overturning the election. Trump contemplated declaring an emergency, ordering the military to seize voting machines and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">replacing the attorney general with a yes-man</a> who would pressure state legislatures to change their electoral votes. </p>
<p><strong>Encouraging violence</strong></p>
<p>Trump summoned supporters to protest the Jan. 6 certification by Congress, boasted it would be “wild,” and encouraged them to march on the Capitol and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/14/million-maga-march-dc-protests/">“fight like hell,” promising to accompany them</a>. Once they had attacked the Capitol, he delayed for four hours before asking them to stop.</p>
<p>Yet Trump’s efforts to overturn the election failed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people with someone holding a sign that says 'Trump won the legal vote!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580570/original/file-20240307-22-qqa3qk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of Trump supporters, fueled by his spurious claims of voter fraud, flooded the nation’s capital on Jan. 6, 2021, protesting Congress’ expected certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowds-of-people-gather-as-us-president-donald-trump-speaks-news-photo/1230451810?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Resisting Trump</h2>
<p>Trump claimed that voting by mail produced rampant fraud, but state legislatures let <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-election-2020-campaign-2016-f6b627a5576014a55a7252e542e46508">voters vote by mail or in drop boxes</a> because of the pandemic. Postal Service workers delivered those ballots despite actions taken by Trump’s postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, that made processing and delivery more difficult.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-election-2020-ap-top-news-politics-us-news-dc647214b5fc91cc29e776d8f4a4accf">DeJoy denied any sabotage</a> in testimony before Congress. </p>
<p>Most state election officials, regardless of party, loyally did their jobs, resisting Trump’s pressure to falsify the outcome. Courts rejected all but one of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">Trump’s 62 lawsuits aimed at overturning the election</a>. Government lawyers refused to invoke the Insurrection Act and authorize the military to seize voting machines. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/12/19/trump-reportedly-asked-advisors-about-deploying-military-to-overturn-election/?sh=486535eece2b">military remained scrupulously apolitical</a>. And Vice President Mike Pence presided over the certification, in which 43 Republican senators and 75 Republican representatives joined all the Democrats to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-justice-department-overturn-election/2021/01/22/b7f0b9fa-5d1c-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html">declare Biden the winner</a>.</p>
<p>That experience contains invaluable lessons about what to expect in 2024 and how to defend the integrity of elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard L. Abel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But the work of others, from lawmakers to judges to regular citizens, stopped him. There are cautionary lessons in that for the 2024 election.Richard L. Abel, Michael J. Connell Distinguished Professor of Law Emeritus, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257352024-03-13T18:03:30Z2024-03-13T18:03:30ZJudge nixes some of Georgia’s charges against Trump and his allies − but that won’t necessarily derail the case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581713/original/file-20240313-16-atpi0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C21%2C4804%2C3210&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump continues to face criminal charges in Georgia, even though some have been dismissed by a judge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpInsurrectionAmendment/d86f97b40fdc4d09ba8a4815b47d50f7/photo">AP Photo/Steve Helber</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A Fulton County judge <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24478988/trump_specialdemurrers_31324.pdf">has tossed out six of the 41 state charges</a> against Donald Trump and his allies in Georgia’s expansive election interference case against the former president and others.</em></p>
<p><em>Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee issued a ruling on March 13, 2024, that focused on charges related to allegations that Trump and other defendants tried to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/donald-trump-charges-quashed-georgia-mcafee.html">get state officials to break the law</a> and decertify the 2020 election results.</em></p>
<p><em>The ruling doesn’t mean that the entire case is derailed, explains Georgia election and legal scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AI_UyLUAAAAJ&hl=en">Anthony Michael Kreis</a>. It’s a focused and technical ruling that says Georgia District Attorney Fani T. Willis has not specified which exact law the defendants are allegedly violating in some instances.</em> </p>
<p><em>It also doesn’t have anything to do with the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/13/fani-willis-disqualification-impact-trump-georgia-case/">defense effort to disqualify Willis</a> from the Trump case because of her romantic relationship with another prosecutor. An Atlanta-area judge is expected to soon rule on this issue.</em> </p>
<p><em>Politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Kreis to better understand what’s behind this ruling and its implications for Georgia’s case against Trump and his allies.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a black robe sits behind a desk, flanked by the U.S. flag and the Georgia state flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581701/original/file-20240313-22-fhr3r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee has been hearing motions in the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/judge-scott-mcafee-presides-during-a-hearing-in-the-case-of-news-photo/2001155374">Alyssa Pointer-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong>What just happened with this ruling?</strong></p>
<p>Essentially what we have here is a response to a legal motion on behalf of a number of defendants, including Trump. In that motion, Trump and his co-defendants say that the state did not give enough detailed particulars about the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-state-georgia-appears-set-file-charges-against-donald-trump-court-document-2023-08-14/">crimes that the defendants have been charged</a> with and thus should be thrown out. </p>
<p>The set of charges revolve around the concept of a violation of an oath. That sprang up as a result of Trump’s <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/highlights-of-trump-s-call-with-the-georgia-secretary-of-state-1/b67c0d9dbde1a697/full.pdf">phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger</a>, with Trump asking him to “find” 11,780 votes that would have given Trump a win in Georgia. The charges also related to some of the defendants’ testimony before the state General Assembly, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">asking the Georgia Legislature to overturn</a> the election and appoint their own electors. </p>
<p>The charges were based on a theory that these defendants unlawfully asked state officials to violate their oath and their duty to the constitutions of the United States and the state of Georgia. What wasn’t clear is what provisions they allegedly tried to induce state officials to violate. </p>
<p>In his ruling, the judge is saying that the state needs to go back to the grand jury and provide details of exactly what aspects of the Constitution these defendants allegedly tried to get state officials to violate, so the defendants have the ability to defend against these charges. </p>
<p><strong>Is the judge saying there is not enough evidence to proceed with this case?</strong></p>
<p>No. He’s saying that the state has not sufficiently explained how the evidence relates to an oath. For example, we know <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">Rudy Giuliani went to the Georgia General Assembly</a> with <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-john-eastmans-2020-election-charges">John Eastman and provided false information</a> in order to encourage these state officials to overturn the election. The theory is that violated both the federal and state constitutions. </p>
<p>But a prosecutor could make that claim in a number of different ways. Did they violate the Georgia Constitution’s right to vote; did they violate the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/equal_protection">equal protection clause</a> in the U.S. Constitution? Is it the right to vote that is spelled out in <a href="https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/state_constitution.pdf">Georgia’s state Constitution</a>? Or is there some other provision of federal or state law they violated? It’s just not clear. </p>
<p>The evidence supporting the charges is there. What is not there is the precise theory of the crime and the exact elements that support those indictments. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up of a man in a suit and tie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581702/original/file-20240313-18-9apse0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a key figure in the case against former President Donald Trump and his alleged efforts to influence the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brad-raffensperger-georgias-secretary-of-state-attends-the-news-photo/2028789353">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Did this decision surprise you?</strong></p>
<p>No. This charge is kind of a unique charge. It is not something that people have really heard of in this context, particularly when it comes to state legislators and presidential electors. We are in an area of legal theory that is unique and without precedent. The judge is saying because we are in this new sphere of legal theory, the state really needs to be specific about what it is they are trying to prove here and what the nature of the criminality is. </p>
<p>The charge of violating an oath is just not something we see in the state of Georgia. <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4152370-read-trump-indictment-georgia/">The charges have been drafted</a> in a very novel way, but they are responding to an unprecedented situation. We are in this kind of wild west of making law. And that is not necessarily a bad thing, but what it does require is a little greater attention to specifics. And the prosecutors have just not done that yet.</p>
<p><strong>Could this delay the trial against Trump and his allies in Georgia?</strong></p>
<p>Maybe. We will have to see. Willis can bring a new, more detailed indictment that is more in line with the state oath. I think if Willis brings another indictment on these charges, there probably won’t be a delay. </p>
<p>If she appeals this decision, rather than just seeking a new indictment, that might slow things down a little. </p>
<p><strong>Is this a sign that the case is being derailed?</strong> </p>
<p>No. The entire indictment, except the violation of oaths of office, still stands. This makes work for the district attorney but is not a fatal detail. Willis can go back to constitutional law experts in her working group and hone in on the theory of a constitutional violation. And she will have another bite at the apple.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225735/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Michael Kreis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Georgia election law scholar explains what’s behind the ruling and what it means for the state’s prosecution of Trump.Anthony Michael Kreis, Assistant Professor of Law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225582024-02-12T13:22:26Z2024-02-12T13:22:26ZAre you seeing news reports of voting problems? 4 essential reads on election disinformation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573137/original/file-20240202-21-f3bec9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5871%2C3908&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A voter emerges from a voting booth in New Hampshire in January 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024NewHampshire/972c19ed86d54978a681a700a4bfc1f5/photo">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In certain circles, the 2020 presidential election isn’t over – and that seems to be at least a little bit true. In recent weeks, official reviews of election records and processes from the 2020 presidential election have reported findings that might be used to spread rumors about voting integrity.</p>
<p>For instance, election officials in Virginia’s Prince William County <a href="https://26d73768-aba6-4644-905b-6ea5efbfc5d6.filesusr.com/ugd/d8ec42_4838ad7c950247ae9cf010d85b4654c1.pdf">announced on Jan. 11, 2024</a>, that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4409576-virginia-county-misreported-2020-votes/">4,000 votes from the 2020 presidential election had been miscounted</a>. None of them changed the results. Those miscounts gave Donald Trump 2,327 more votes than he actually got, and Joe Biden 1,648 votes fewer. Errors in counting turned up in other races, too, with both parties’ candidates for U.S. Senate being given fewer votes than they actually received, and a Republican who won a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives actually won by a slightly larger margin than previously reported.</p>
<p>An audit of South Carolina’s 2020 voting records <a href="https://scdailygazette.com/2024/01/17/auditors-find-no-fraud-in-sc-election-process-but-make-some-clean-up-suggestions/">released in mid-January</a> <a href="https://scdailygazette.com/2024/01/17/auditors-find-no-fraud-in-sc-election-process-but-make-some-clean-up-suggestions/">found no fraud</a> and no indication any election results could have been different with the errors that were identified. But the report did recommend election officials cross-check lists of registered voters with other state lists more frequently than they have done in the past. Death reports and prison inmate rolls can help them determine who should remain eligible to voter and who should be removed from voting lists, the report said.</p>
<p>The Conversation U.S. has published several articles about the systems protecting election integrity. Here are four examples from our archives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Trump campaign poll watcher films the counting of ballots at the Allegheny County, Pa., elections warehouse" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368026/original/file-20201106-23-1m7dosw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Trump campaign poll watcher films the counting of ballots at the Allegheny County, Penn., elections warehouse in 2020 in Pittsburgh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/trump-campaign-poll-watcher-films-the-counting-of-ballots-news-photo/1229491574?adppopup=true">Jeff Swensen/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Changing numbers are evidence of transparency, not fraud</h2>
<p>The news reports of election audits came, originally, from election officials themselves, who specified they were below the small margins that would have triggered recounts. The reports also offered explanations for what had happened and how to fix it in the future – and included statements that at least some of the problems had already been fixed for upcoming elections.</p>
<p>That’s an example of what <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=NYzBHVcAAAAJ">Kristin Kanthak</a>, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh, was talking about when she explained that election results that change over time aren’t inherently a problem:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-votes-are-counted-in-pennsylvania-changing-numbers-are-a-sign-of-transparency-not-fraud-during-an-ongoing-process-149685">(T)his doesn’t mean the system is ‘rigged.’</a> Actually, it means the system is transparent to a fault,” she wrote.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-votes-are-counted-in-pennsylvania-changing-numbers-are-a-sign-of-transparency-not-fraud-during-an-ongoing-process-149685">How votes are counted in Pennsylvania: Changing numbers are a sign of transparency, not fraud, during an ongoing process</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Easier voting is not a threat to election integrity</h2>
<p>Erecting obstacles to voting will not prevent the problems that do exist in the election system, for the simple reason that the flaws are not a result of easier voting methods, such as early voting and voting by mail.</p>
<p>Grinnell College political scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=rx12P2YAAAAJ">Douglas R. Hess</a> observed that the COVID-19 pandemic was a massive test of whether a secure election could be held with a lot of <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-it-easier-to-vote-does-not-threaten-election-integrity-157007">accommodations that made voting easier</a>, and safer from the spread of disease.</p>
<p>As he wrote,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“(E)arly voting and voting by mail are targeted for restrictions in many states, even though both reforms are popular with the public, worked securely in 2020 and have been expanded in many states for years without increases in fraud. Likewise, the collection of absentee ballots – a necessity for some voters – can be implemented securely.”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-it-easier-to-vote-does-not-threaten-election-integrity-157007">Making it easier to vote does not threaten election integrity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. It’s possible for election workers to be both partisan and fair-minded</h2>
<p>For many years, elections have been run by people who were members of one political party or the other but behaved in good faith to run fair elections, wrote <a href="https://search.asu.edu/profile/2408574">Thom Reilly</a>, a scholar at Arizona State University’s School of Public Affairs.</p>
<p>But both the facts and the rhetoric have changed, he explained, noting that a significant share of the electorate is not a member of either party – so the people who supervise elections, who are typically party members, are “<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-faith-and-the-honor-of-partisan-election-officials-used-to-be-enough-to-ensure-trust-in-voting-results-but-not-anymore-189510">an increasingly partisan set of officials</a>.”</p>
<p>Even so, many of them work hard to conduct fair elections. Yet, he wrote,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-faith-and-the-honor-of-partisan-election-officials-used-to-be-enough-to-ensure-trust-in-voting-results-but-not-anymore-189510">(W)idespread misinformation and disinformation</a> on election administration is hobbling the ability of election officials to do their job and has created fertile ground for mistrust.”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/good-faith-and-the-honor-of-partisan-election-officials-used-to-be-enough-to-ensure-trust-in-voting-results-but-not-anymore-189510">Good faith and the honor of partisan election officials used to be enough to ensure trust in voting results – but not anymore</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman with gray hair helps a man with gray hair cast a ballot at a voting machine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488374/original/file-20221005-12-kkkvga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A poll worker helps a voter cast a ballot in the Kansas primary election at Merriam Christian Church on Aug. 2, 2022, in Merriam, Kan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/poll-worker-helps-a-voter-cast-their-ballot-in-the-kansas-news-photo/1412514591?phrase=election%20worker&adppopup=true">Kyle Rivas/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Beware those who aim to confuse or mislead</h2>
<p>Political disinformation efforts are particularly intense around elections, warn scholars of information warfare <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=C6KSF5gAAAAJ&hl=en">Kate Starbird</a> and
<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=db5ZPlkAAAAJ&hl=en">Jevin West</a> at the University of Washington and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=udIHaZAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Renee DiResta</a> at Stanford University.</p>
<p>Situations to watch out for are those in which “<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-types-of-misinformation-to-watch-out-for-while-ballots-are-being-counted-and-after-149509">lack of understanding and certainty</a> can fuel doubt, fan misinformation and provide opportunities for those seeking to delegitimize the results,” they wrote.</p>
<p>Specifically, look out for:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-types-of-misinformation-to-watch-out-for-while-ballots-are-being-counted-and-after-149509">Politically motivated individuals</a> (who) are likely to cherry-pick and assemble these pieces of digital "evidence” to fit narratives that seek to undermine trust in the results. Much of this evidence is likely to be derived from real events, though taken out of context and exaggerated.“</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They provide a reminder to keep your wits about you and be sure to double-check any claims before believing or sharing them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-types-of-misinformation-to-watch-out-for-while-ballots-are-being-counted-and-after-149509">5 types of misinformation to watch out for while ballots are being counted – and after</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p>
<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/election-2024-disinformation-151606">This article is part of Disinformation 2024:</a></strong> a series examining the science, technology and politics of deception in elections.</em></p>
<p><em>You may also be interested in:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-disinformation-is-a-threat-to-elections-learning-to-spot-russian-chinese-and-iranian-meddling-in-other-countries-can-help-the-us-prepare-for-2024-214358">AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/events-that-never-happened-could-influence-the-2024-presidential-election-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-situation-deepfakes-206034">Events that never happened could influence the 2024 presidential election – a cybersecurity researcher explains situation deepfakes</a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Scholars discuss aspects of protecting election integrity in the face of efforts to cast aspersions on voting results.Jeff Inglis, Politics + Society Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197782024-01-18T13:28:38Z2024-01-18T13:28:38ZWomen presidential candidates like Nikki Haley are more likely to change their positions to reach voters − but this doesn’t necessarily pay off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568066/original/file-20240105-19-uz1nkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley greets supporters on Jan. 3, 2024, at a bar in Londonderry, N.H. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/londonderry-nh-former-south-carolina-governor-and-news-photo/1902583157?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has said that she is “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-abortion-republican-primary-1827870a52349f3ee2f0c2b50e110b3b">very pro-life,</a>” she has also said that abortion is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“personal choice</a>.” Her wording on different thorny political issues such as abortion has left <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">some voters confused</a> about where she actually stands.</p>
<p>This has led some political observers, such as Politico journalist Michael Kruse, to say that Haley has “made a career of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/29/nikki-haley-profile-trump-gop-00118794">taking both sides</a>,” citing her positions on issues such as identity politics, Donald Trump and abortion.</p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses, an Iowa voter praised Haley for pursing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“political middle,”</a> noting this allowed the former South Carolina governor to “compromise” and work “both sides.” Conversely, some conservative commentators have also suggested that Haley’s approach is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-brace-nikki-haley-ron-desantis-showdown-debates-rcna117786">“inauthentic</a>.” </p>
<p>Haley placed third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">drawing support from 19% of voters</a> there. </p>
<p>Polls on Jan. 16, 2024, showed Trump’s lead over Haley in the New Hampshire primary, set for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">Jan. 23, narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Shawn-J-Parry-Giles-2037362650">communication and English</a> scholars <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/english/about-us/faculty/bios/david-kaufer.html">who study</a> the role of language and persuasion in politics. We are particularly interested in the ways that speakers and writers adapt their messages and language in different situations and among various voters. We call this concept rhetorical adaptivity. </p>
<p>Our research shows that women presidential candidates, more than the men they run against, often speak differently to different audiences in pursuit of moderation and common ground. They also tend to shift their strategies and messages in response to criticism. And they often pay a price for it.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric and presidential campaigns</h2>
<p>Politicians changing their words and messages to appeal to different audiences is the subject of a book we co-authored in 2023, <a href="https://msupress.org/9781611864663/hillary-clintons-career-in-speeches/#:%7E:text=Hillary%20Clinton's%20Career%20in%20Speeches%20combines%20statistical%20text%2Dmining%20methods,political%20women%20in%20U.S.%20history">“Hillary Clinton’s Career in Speeches</a>: The Promises and Perils of Women’s Rhetorical Adaptivity.”</p>
<p>This project examined how Clinton, her presidential opponents in 2008 and 2016, and the <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/presidential-watch-2020">Democratic women</a> who ran for president in 2020 campaigned differently. We found that women more commonly adjusted their language and reshaped their positions to appeal to more voters and to manage the controversies they faced.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/hillary-clinton-abortion/494723/">Hillary Clinton tried to find more of a middle ground</a> on abortion by referring to the “fetus” as an “unborn person” and talking about restrictions on “late-term abortions” – even as she defended a “pro-choice” position. </p>
<p>Both Clinton and Haley opponents have questioned their authenticity, citing the politicians’ shifting language and positions. Such challenges aimed to undermine their candidacies by suggesting they lacked the character to be president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton wears a red pantsuit and gestures while standing at a podium, in front of a large crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, speaks to a crowd in North Carolina shortly before Election Day on Nov. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-nominee-former-secretary-of-state-news-photo/621754706?adppopup=true">Zach Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Haley’s rhetorical maneuvers</h2>
<p>Haley’s critics also cite her shifting positions, including on issues such as abortion, Palestinians in Gaza and Donald Trump to argue she lacks a political core. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was quick to condemn Haley’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/us/abortion-pence-haley-debate.html">compromising stance</a>” on abortion during the August 2023 Republican debate. </p>
<p>Haley’s opponents have also challenged her changing positions on the Israel-Hamas war. As the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Haley supported Israel and disparaged the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/nikki-haley-israel-trump.html">Palestinian refugee agency</a> for “using American money to feed Palestinian hatred of the Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Yet, in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/desantis-haley-gaza-refugees-israel.html#:%7E:text=%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.-,Ms.,a%20longstanding%20relationship%20with%20Hamas.">Haley showed more sympathy for the Palestinians</a>. </p>
<p>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ridiculed Haley’s compassion as being “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/desantis-haley-gaza-israel-hamas-war-00121869">politically correct</a>.” Haley reaffirmed her pro-Israel priorities in response during a <a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/20/nikki-haley-says-she-would-support-israel-strengthen-u-s-military-as-president/">speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa</a>, in mid-October 2023. Haley said she supported Israel and called for the elimination of Hamas. Concern for the Palestinians slipped down the ladder of her priorities.</p>
<p>As a U.N. ambassador, meanwhile, Haley was unwavering in her support for Trump. In her 2019 book, “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250266552/withallduerespect">With All Due Respect</a>,” Haley concluded: “In every instance I dealt with Trump, he was truthful, he listened and he was great to work with.”</p>
<p>Since then, Haley has carved a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">middle ground</a> approach to Trump. She has argued, “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/timeline-nikki-haleys-trump-statements-rcna70456">We need him in the Republican Party</a>. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.” </p>
<p>Yet, in other contexts, she <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jewish-republicans-trump-desantis-2024-45ee4b88592754dfd6ed5332612373b6">disparages Trump</a> for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">sowing “chaos, vendettas and drama</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-nikki-haley-opens-trump-israel/story?id=105523630">Trump called her out</a> on this discrepancy in the fall of 2023. “She criticizes me one minute, and 15 minutes later, she un-criticizes me.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a white jacket and stands in front of a group of seated people, with the backdrop of the American flag. She holds a microphone and points her finger towards the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign town hall event in Rye, N.H., on Jan. 2, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1895740236?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Haley’s character woes</h2>
<p>Other critics frame Haley’s positions as “flip-flopping.” They don’t interpret what she is doing as moderating her positions or using the language of compromise to build consensus. </p>
<p>Time magazine ran a headline in February 2023 that read: “A Brief History of <a href="https://time.com/6252040/nikki-haley-donald-trump-relationship-history/">Nikki Haley’s Biggest Flip Flops on Trump</a>.” In March 2023, The New York Times featured an opinion piece titled, “The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html">Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley</a>.” </p>
<p>Challenging the authenticity of presidential candidates is commonplace, but it is especially piercing when the challenge is directed against women candidates. In presidential politics, research shows that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2014/02/03/the-most-undervalued-leadership-traits-of-women/?sh=3b7e486338a1">women are conditioned</a> to be uniters, consensus-builders and mitigators of any negativity they face. </p>
<p>Yet, efforts to do this and still “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/12/31/desantis-christie-haley-slavery-comments-acostanr-brownstein-vpx.cnn">be all things to all people</a>” often result in women candidates falling into gaffe traps. </p>
<p>Haley’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/30/1222272908/week-in-politics-haleys-gaffe-trump-on-primary-ballots-biden-and-southern-border">initial refusal to associate “slavery” with the Civil War</a> in December 2023 reinforced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/politics/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery.html">southern trope</a> that some Republicans of color called a “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/republicans-of-color-nikki-haley-civil-war-00133286">tactical blunder</a>.”</p>
<h2>Women’s election challenges</h2>
<p>More leadership experts are recognizing the benefits of political candidates integrating multiple perspectives into their thinking and speech. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">Pew Research Center</a> found in 2018 that in politics as well as business, women are perceived to be more “compassionate” and “empathic” and are more likely to work out “compromises” than men. </p>
<p>Yet, in presidential campaigns, and especially primaries, compromise, adaptivity and problem-solving are exchanged for hubris, rigidity and ideological purity. Playing to the political middle is treated as politically evasive and opportunistic. </p>
<p>Eventually, women playing to the middle become more gaffe-prone as the campaign unfolds. Women, more than the men they run against, are granted minimal room by opponents and pundits for unforced errors before they are quickly dismissed as “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2112616119">unelectable</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley is the latest American female politician to shift her language, depending on whom she is talking to and where. But this tactic has a flip side, prompting criticism of her as inconsistent.Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of MarylandDavid Kaufer, Professor Emeritus of English, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205182024-01-14T12:58:33Z2024-01-14T12:58:33ZDon’t count Biden out: January polls are historically unreliable<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/dont-count-biden-out-january-polls-are-historically-unreliable" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As 2024 begins, Joe Biden’s hopes of being re-elected president of the United States look shaky. Recent <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">approval ratings have him at 39 per cent</a>, consumer sentiment on the economy sits near <a href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php">a 10-year low</a> and early polls have him down about two points in a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com">hypothetical rematch with Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>How worried should Democrats be? </p>
<p>Several historical patterns are relevant and work in Biden’s favour.</p>
<h2>Democrats gripe, then return</h2>
<p>First, in seven of the last eight presidential elections, the Democrat has won more votes. The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">Electoral College</a> aside, American voters lean Democratic. </p>
<p>Also, they don’t give up on a president very often. Since 1896, the only presidents to have taken over from the opposing party and then lost re-election were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/07/one-term-presidents-trump/">Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2020</a>. Unless things are going very badly, re-election of a president is the most likely outcome. </p>
<p>Biden’s current polling doesn’t tell the whole story of his chances. For one, a poll’s timing should affect what we infer from it. Approval ratings in January of an election year don’t reflect the support that will likely exist in November. </p>
<p>Biden’s approval rating is 78 per cent among Democrats, but those numbers will likely improve by November if the re-elections of both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are any indication.</p>
<p>On Jan. 1, 2012, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">76 per cent of self-identifying Democrats approved of Obama’s job performance</a>. By the week of the 2012 election, it was 91 per cent. Ninety-two per cent of Democrats voted for him in 2012. </p>
<p>Similarly, Clinton’s <a href="https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx">January 1996 approval rating among Democrats was 72 per cent</a>, but 86 per cent by the time the election was held. </p>
<p>Democrats are more likely to express dissatisfaction with their own presidents, but they return to the fold. That’s because months before an election, disapproval is an easy way for Democrats to relate their misgivings about their candidate. </p>
<p>As the year progresses, approval becomes more about the choice between their team’s candidate and the opposition. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000722">Campaigns ramp up partisanship later in an election year, and that hasn’t really begun yet</a>.</p>
<h2>Too soon</h2>
<p>Another hidden pocket of Biden support is among voters who are neither Democrats nor Republicans. Self-described independents’ approval of Biden is just under 30 per cent, but they preferred him to Trump by 52 per cent to 43 per cent <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">in 2020</a>. More than 30 per cent are likely to choose Biden this November.</p>
<p>Biden versus Trump polls this early are likely poor predictors of what’s to come, especially with a president running for re-election. The incumbent party candidate is known, while the media focuses on the debates and primaries of the other party. </p>
<p>In every January of an election year, it’s still not clear who will be the successful challenger to the president in November. Questions about hypothetical match-ups are more about a referendum on the president — whether they deserve re-election or how they compare to some possible alternative.</p>
<p>But as the year progresses and the opposition candidate is chosen, survey respondents focus more on the choice between candidates on Election Day. </p>
<p>Right now, disappointed liberals, some independents and Democrats who are worried about Biden’s age <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20Jan.,update%20as%20new%20polls%20arrive.">(or Vice-President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings)</a> may tell pollsters they would vote for another candidate. But most will probably come back to Biden. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-bidens-ego-bring-trump-back-to-the-white-house-219469">Will Biden's ego bring Trump back to the White House?</a>
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<h2>A highly unusual election year</h2>
<p>Still, 2024 is anything but typical. </p>
<p>In a routine re-election year, it takes time for voters to form opinions about the challenger. Voters already know Trump, who’s the first former president <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office/">since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 to seek the office again.</a> Roosevelt lost, incidentally.</p>
<p>Also, a second Biden-Trump showdown would be the first rematch since <a href="https://www.270towin.com/1956_Election/">Adlai Stevenson lost for a second time to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956</a>. If Trump is the nominee, voters will have well-defined opinions of both candidates already.</p>
<p>Worries about Biden’s age will be thought of more comparatively — Trump would be older at his second inauguration than Biden was at his first. Voters can also compare Biden’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/23/trump-biden-us-economy-compared/">economic record (400,000 jobs/month) to Trump’s (176,000 jobs/month prior to the COVID-19 pandemic)</a>.</p>
<p>Also, Trump’s interweaving of campaigning for president while fighting court battles in four jurisdictions will provide a daily contrast to Biden. A recent <em>Washington Post</em> poll <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1f428bba-56ee-4800-b00d-7fd1b0004627.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">found 56 per cent of respondents think Trump is probably or definitely guilty of criminal conspiracy</a> regarding his claims of voter fraud and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. </p>
<p>Legal experts suggest Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/01/10/dead-man-walking-experts-say-immunity-lawyer-lost-after-he-set-a-trap-for-himself/">will probably be convicted this year on some charges.</a> The Supreme Court may even disqualify him from running, though that’s less likely.</p>
<h2>Be skeptical of polls for now</h2>
<p>With 2020 as a baseline, we know a lot about how voters will choose between Trump and Biden. With strong polarization between the parties, significant movement from the 2020 results will be unlikely. </p>
<p>Biden’s victory <a href="https://www.270towin.com">by seven million votes</a> included the key states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. That was good for 306 of 538 electoral votes. </p>
<p>The president could lose several of those swing states in 2024 and still prevail. Mid-terms in 2022 brought in many new voters — younger and pro-choice — who will likely add to that small cushion.</p>
<p>There are many unknowns for 2024, and Trump is not yet the Republican nominee. But in a Trump versus Biden rematch, not much will have changed and a similar result is most likely: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles. </p>
<p>Don’t believe all the numbers just yet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Lebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.Matthew Lebo, Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147092023-10-04T19:05:43Z2023-10-04T19:05:43ZMade in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero<p>Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p>In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/08/biden-signs-order-government-net-zero-emissions-2050">to commit the US to net zero</a> by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The IRA changes the landscape</h2>
<p>Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.</p>
<p>The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-is-poised-for-an-energy-revolution.html">Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies</a> could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects</a> in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to <a href="https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2023/07/Clean-Energy-Boom-Anniversary-Report-1.pdf">create 170,000 jobs</a>, predominantly in Republican-led states.</p>
<p>The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.</p>
<p>This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.</p>
<p>Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<h2>Industrial policy to protect the climate</h2>
<p>The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1708643134735839283"}"></div></p>
<p>These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/a-united-front-how-the-us-and-the-eu-can-move-beyond-trade-tensions-to-counter-china/">strategic economic nationalism</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.</p>
<p>The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but <a href="https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article14567471.ece">fiercely criticised</a> its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-visits-nasa-talks-space-cooperation-us-visit-begins-2022-11-30/">super aggressive</a>” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-foreign-governments-seek-changes-us-ev-tax-rules-2022-11-08/">trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom</a> on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”</p>
<p>Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-united-states-inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-investment-threat-data/">has responded to the IRA</a> by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.</p>
<p><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/how-inflation-reduction-act-changed-canada">Canada</a>, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. <a href="https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230513-109457/">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/samsung-drives-400-billion-south-korea-plan-to-propel-key-tech?sref=wpjMCURG">South Korea</a> have announced similar programs.</p>
<h2>Why the IRA challenges Australia</h2>
<p>In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government <a href="https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/newsroom/transforming-australia-s-critical-minerals-sector/">provided a A$1.25 billion loan</a> to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.</p>
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<p>But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen">green hydrogen production</a> that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/australia-energy-future#:%7E:text=Australia%20has%20vast%20amounts%20of,change%20from%20challenge%20to%20opportunity.">a clean energy superpower</a> – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/green-steel-is-hailed-as-the-next-big-thing-in-australian-industry-heres-what-the-hype-is-all-about-160282">'Green steel' is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here's what the hype is all about</a>
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<p>The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.</p>
<p>The US will be an essential market for our <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/04/05/the-energy-transition-will-need-more-rare-earth-elements-can-we-secure-them-sustainably/">rare earths</a> such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.</p>
<p>In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/onshoring-and-friend-shoring-us-ev-supply-chains-what-are-boundaries">friend-shoring</a> but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.</p>
<p>The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.” </p>
<p>A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4443474">Greens’ Dilemma</a>. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.</p>
<p>Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214709/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council. </span></em></p>The Biden Administration’s signature climate legislation is unleashing a wave of clean energy investment, along with some opportunities and risks for countries like Australia.Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140382023-09-21T20:45:52Z2023-09-21T20:45:52ZRupert Murdoch: His Fox News legacy is one of lies, with little accountability, and political power that rose from the belief in his power − 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549650/original/file-20230921-26-atkrcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C18%2C4155%2C2766&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rupert Murdoch attends the 2019 Vanity Fair Oscars party on Feb. 24, 2019, in Beverly Hills, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rupert-murdoch-attends-the-2019-vanity-fair-oscar-party-news-photo/1132383737?adppopup=true">Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rupert Murdoch, 92, one of the world’s most influential modern media figures, announced on Sept. 21, 2023, that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/21/media/rupert-murdoch-steps-down-fox/index.html">he is stepping down as</a> chair of Fox Corp. and executive chairman of News Corp. By mid-November, he will no longer be at the helm of the multibillion-dollar media empire that has stirred so much controversy over decades. </p>
<p>Through Fox News, Murdoch is leaving a lasting impression on American journalism and politics. It just may not be what most people think.</p>
<p>Here are three essential reads from The Conversation about Murdoch and Fox News and how they have shaped the American media and political landscapes.</p>
<h2>1. So-called journalists can lie with near total impunity</h2>
<p>Following the 2020 presidential election, Fox hosts repeatedly – and falsely – accused Dominion Voting Systems, a voting technology company, of rigging the contest to ensure then-President Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection. Dominion challenged those lies <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2021/03/26/fox-dominion-lawsuit-defamation/">in a US$1.6 billion defamation lawsuit</a> against Fox News in March 2021.</p>
<p>The lawsuit was settled in April 2023 for $787.5 million. During pretrial testimony, Murdoch admitted that key Fox personalities knowingly lied about election fraud in the 2020 presidential election on their shows.</p>
<p>Before the settlement was reached, <a href="https://www.american.edu/soc/faculty/jwatson.cfm">John C. Watson</a>, an associate professor of journalism at American University, wrote that the case revealed a powerful truth about American journalism: In the news business, corporations can hire anyone they want and call them journalists because the profession doesn’t have standardized requirements.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/anyone-can-claim-to-be-a-journalist-or-a-news-organization-and-publish-lies-with-almost-total-impunity-202083">Anyone can claim to be a journalist</a>, irrespective of their actual function. Any business can claim to be a news organization. Functioning irresponsibly in either role is largely protected by the First Amendment and is therefore optional,” Watson wrote. </p>
<p>“Neither journalists nor the news organizations they personify have to be truthful unless they want to. Lying in the press is unethical but does not necessarily strip liars of the protections provided by the First Amendment.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anyone-can-claim-to-be-a-journalist-or-a-news-organization-and-publish-lies-with-almost-total-impunity-202083">Anyone can claim to be a journalist or a news organization, and publish lies with almost total impunity</a>
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<h2>2. Fox News’ settlement with Dominion Voting Systems was a win for all media</h2>
<p>After Fox and Dominion settled the lawsuit, each side claimed victory. Dominion, declaring that “truth matters,” said its reputation had been vindicated.</p>
<p>And Fox conceded that it had to acknowledge “<a href="https://press.foxnews.com/2023/04/fox-news-and-dominion-voting-systems-reach-settlement">the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false</a>.” But the news giant also maintained that the settlement was a victory for Fox, because it reflected the organization’s commitment to the highest journalistic standards.</p>
<p>Post-settlement posturing aside, <a href="https://law.umn.edu/profiles/jane-kirtley">Jane E. Kirtley</a>, a professor of media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota, wrote that the settlement helped protect all media outlets over the long run in legal fights over their coverage.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fox-news-settlement-with-dominion-voting-systems-is-good-news-for-all-media-outlets-204095">I hold no brief for Fox</a>. But had the Dominion case gone to the jury, the inevitable appeal by whomever lost would give the Supreme Court the chance to reconsider and possibly eliminate the New York Times v. Sullivan standard that protects all news media of all political stripes,” she wrote. “At least two justices, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, have indicated they are eager to do just that, even though it has been the constitutional standard for nearly 60 years.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fox-news-settlement-with-dominion-voting-systems-is-good-news-for-all-media-outlets-204095">Why Fox News' settlement with Dominion Voting Systems is good news for all media outlets</a>
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<h2>3. Fox News’ political power is marginal</h2>
<p>Michael J. Socolow, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=YxTJsxoAAAAJ">a professor of communication and journalism</a> at the University of Maine, wrote that any evidence offered that Fox News and Rupert Murdoch created and sustain the U.S. political climate is more circumstantial than anything else.</p>
<p>Trump’s 2016 presidential election victory is a prime example, according to Socolow. Neither Murdoch nor the late Roger Ailes, Fox News’ founder, supported Trump’s candidacy.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/fox-news-isnt-the-problem-its-the-medias-obsession-with-fox-news-114954">Ailes and Murdoch were unable to stop Republicans from voting for him</a>. But this failure to persuade Republicans in 2016 isn’t really a surprise,” Socolow writes. “Fox News couldn’t prevent (former President Barack) Obama’s election, reelection or the 2018 blue wave.”</p>
<p>Fox’s real power, Socolow suggests, is the media’s characterization of the outlet as a hugely influential political force, when its actual political power is marginal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fox-news-isnt-the-problem-its-the-medias-obsession-with-fox-news-114954">Fox News isn’t the problem, it’s the media’s obsession with Fox News</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives. It has been updated in its references to Fox hosts.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was updated on September 25 to correct the dollar amount of the Fox, Dominion lawsuit.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Rupert Murdoch is a major media figure, but he may not be as influential as most people think.Lorna Grisby, Politics & Society EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122392023-08-31T12:19:57Z2023-08-31T12:19:57ZRICO is often used to target the mob and cartels − but Trump and his associates aren’t the first outside those worlds to face charges<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545340/original/file-20230829-22497-mdx0an.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during a news conference after former President Donald Trump's Aug. 15 indictment. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-district-attorney-fani-willis-speaks-during-a-news-photo/1615613099?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It might seem odd to some that former President Donald Trump and his co-defendants, many of whom are lawyers and served as senior government officials, were charged with racketeering regarding their alleged attempt to <a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/CRIMINAL-INDICTMENT-Trump-Fulton-County-GA.pdf">overturn the results of the 2020 election</a> in Georgia.</p>
<p>Racketeering charges are complex but generally speak to dishonest business dealings. Many racketeering prosecutions involve lucrative criminal enterprises, such as illegal drug operations or the Mafia. </p>
<p>Whatever the lawfulness of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, no one claims his conduct was part of a Mafia scheme. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DMWfDCgAAAAJ&hl=en">am a scholar of criminal law</a> and procedure. Prosecutors sometimes charge white-collar defendants who are not part of a mob with RICO violations.</p>
<p>Trump is set to be arraigned on Sept. 6, 2023, in Atlanta, for his alleged attempt to overturn the election in that state. At that time, he will be read his formal charges and will plead guilty or, far more likely, not guilty. </p>
<p>A grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-georgia-indictment-against-trump-and-18-allies">indicted Trump</a> and 18 other political associates on Aug. 15, 2023. They are facing charges under Georgia’s <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-14/">Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act</a>, often called RICO. </p>
<p>Trump and others, including former Trump <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-giuliani-georgia-election-indictment-fulton-county-203b1e69cbff227a0bf8cc59a6bb645f">attorney Rudolph Giuliani</a>, are also charged with a number of other specific crimes such as forgery, filing false documents and <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-4/section-16-4-7/">solicitation</a> of <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-1/section-16-10-1/">violation of oath by a public officer</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white cartoon shows a map of New York City with photos of different known Mafia men, including Al Capone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545342/original/file-20230829-22-rsr2b4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A graphic from 1933 shows where different gang leaders, including Al Capone, operated. Before 1970, members of the Mafia or other similar groups were tried individually for their crimes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/heres-the-way-the-racketeering-group-lined-up-in-the-early-news-photo/515619350?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>RICO’s relatively short history</h2>
<p>In 1970, <a href="https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1951-2000/Crime-Control-Act-of-1970/">Congress enacted</a> the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/part-I/chapter-96">Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations law</a>.</p>
<p>Before 1970, prosecutors could <a href="https://www.justia.com/criminal/docs/rico/">prosecute individuals</a> only for conspiracy and other specific offenses, even if they were allegedly Mafia-related crimes and even if the defendants were alleged to be career or professional offenders. </p>
<p>At least <a href="https://www.findlaw.com/state/criminal-laws/racketeering.html">31 states</a>, including <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-14/">Georgia, have since enacted</a> so-called “little RICO” or “state RICO” laws modeled after federal RICO, allowing such prosecutions to be brought in their courts. </p>
<p>The federal and state versions of RICO are notoriously <a href="https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/training/primers/2021_Primer_RICO.pdf">detailed</a> and <a href="https://readingroom.law.gsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?httpsredir=1&article=1415&context=gsulr">complex</a>. </p>
<p>In essence, however, most versions of the law create a new, and more serious, offense – namely, engagement in a pattern of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/racketeering.asp">specified criminal activity</a> as part of an organization. Sometimes the organization is a criminal gang of some kind that exists to make an illegal profit, such as robbery teams, loan sharks, narcotics manufacturers, professional gamblers or human traffickers. </p>
<p>The organization could also be an otherwise legitimate business or governmental entity. Making money is sometimes, but not always, a factor in racketeering cases.</p>
<p>So-called RICO predicates – the underlying crimes that form the pattern – encompass a wide range of illegal conduct, including crimes as diverse as <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/bribery">bribery</a>, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/mail_fraud">mail fraud</a>, kidnapping and murder. </p>
<p>In general, both federal and state judges have interpreted RICO broadly, in both allowing charges and convicting defendants. RICO claims may also be brought by civil plaintiffs. But in such cases only monetary damages and other forms of civil relief may be awarded, and this does not result in imprisonment. </p>
<h2>Anyone can get charged with RICO</h2>
<p>In 1989, the Supreme Court explained that while <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/492/229/">RICO was originally intended for gangsters</a>, it could apply to companies and other people who are not part of an organized crime operation, as long as they violated the terms of the statute. </p>
<p>That year, the Supreme Court was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1989/06/27/supreme-court-backs-use-of-rico-statute-damages/15eb8a87-5873-474b-8952-f2d87bf4e78d/">considering a case</a> in which the telephone company Northwestern Bell, which was serving the Minneapolis area, was accused of bribing state officials at the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission with gifts and employment in order to win rate increases. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court explained that Congress had organized crime in mind when it drafted the law but intentionally made it broader, encompassing a wider range of criminal conduct. </p>
<p>So, if otherwise upstanding citizens who work for legitimate businesses commit acts of bribery and corruption, this can lead to a RICO charge.</p>
<p>A few years later, in 1994, <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/510/249/">the Supreme Court unanimously ruled</a> that abortion clinics could use the federal RICO law to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1994/01/25/abortion-clinics-can-use-racketeer-law-on-protests/bbb61b8b-b737-47ba-8161-7cf5a0b25237/">sue anti-abortion protesters</a> who conspired to shut them down. </p>
<p>In 1997, the federal government <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/522/52">charged a Texas sheriff</a> with RICO after he accepted money from a federal prisoner in exchange for conjugal visits with the prisoner’s wife or girlfriend. The sheriff, Mario Salino, was <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/archive/1997/12/03/texas-jail-bribery-conviction-is-upheld/">sentenced to three years in prison</a> and fined $5,000. </p>
<p>Cases in the U.S. Supreme Court included liquor dealers suspected of <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/03-725.ZS.html">evading Canadian export taxes</a> and a person accused of transporting automobile titles with <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/498/103">falsified odometer readings</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past few decades, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/castro-enterprise-leader-convicted-rico-conspiracy-and-other-violent-crimes">many business leaders</a>, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/philadelphia-congressman-and-associates-convicted-rico-conspiracy-public-corruption">politicians</a> and other <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/11/740596170/fbi-arrests-former-top-puerto-rico-officials-in-government-corruption-scandal">government officials</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/dealbook/rico-insys-opioid-executives.html">have been convicted</a> of state and local RICO offenses for various crimes. </p>
<p>In August 2023, for example, a former mayor of Humacao, Puerto Rico, was sentenced to three years and one month in prison for his involvement in a bribery scheme. According to the Department of Justice, the politician, Reinaldo Vargas-Rodriguez, privately <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-puerto-rico-mayor-sentenced-accepting-bribes">accepted cash from two companies</a> in exchange for his giving them municipal contracts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large screen on a street with trees and parked cars shows a photo of Donald Trump's mugshot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/545338/original/file-20230829-29-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An outdoor screen in London displays a news story showing former President Donald Trump’s mug shot following his arrest in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-outdoor-screen-in-central-london-displays-a-news-story-news-photo/1623314163?adppopup=true">Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Georgia courts are on board</h2>
<p>Georgia courts agree with the Supreme Court that their state RICO law requires no allegation or proof of “<a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/georgia/court-of-appeals/1990/a89a1832-0.html">nexus with organized crime</a>.” </p>
<p>A range of people in Georgia have been hit with RICO charges. In 2005, Georgia prosecutors charged a former DeKalb County <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/georgia/supreme-court/2005/s05a0897-1.html">sheriff named Sidney Dorsey</a> with killing his successor, as well as racketeering and other crimes. <a href="https://www.11alive.com/article/news/local/derwin-brown-daughter-brandy-remembers-father/85-6825c440-0022-41af-a504-dd0fb0fa8d7c">Dorsey is</a> serving <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/crime--law/sidney-dorsey-shot-death-clayton-county/Uz5AVLnfjNJpQ6NTgrnpLL/">life in prison</a>. Truck stop owners and operators accused of doctoring the <a href="https://cases.justia.com/georgia/supreme-court/s09a0371.pdf">prices and fuel quality labels on gas pumps</a> have also been prosecuted. </p>
<p>Perhaps most relevant to the charges against Trump and his associates, the <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/georgia/supreme-court/1984/41044-1.html">Georgia Supreme Court</a> rejected a claim by Georgia’s elected commissioner of labor that officeholders seeking reelection were exempt from RICO: “By its express terms, the RICO act includes as a crime a reelection campaign by the holder of public office in which 2 or more similar or interrelated predicate offenses specified in the act are committed.”</p>
<p>It is not yet clear how Trump and his former associates will fare with RICO charges in a Georgia court. But they are far from the first people with no involvement in an organized criminal organization to be forced to defend themselves against racketeering charges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel J. Chin receives funding from the University of California and the State Bar of California.</span></em></p>Federal and state RICO charges, which target racketeering, have been applied to a wide range of crimes committed by politicians and business people over the past few decades.Gabriel J. Chin, Professor of Criminal Law, Immigration, and Race and Law, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115822023-08-15T03:31:12Z2023-08-15T03:31:12ZFulton County charges Donald Trump with racketeering, other felonies – a Georgia election law expert explains 5 key things to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542726/original/file-20230815-6385-nfovfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney receives documents from court clerk Che Alexander on August 14, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-superior-court-judge-robert-mcburney-receives-news-photo/1599897578?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An Atlanta, Georgia, <a href="https://www.ajc.com/politics/trump-18-others-indicted-for-trying-to-overthrow-2020-georgia-election/PQ3N2YBIDRDJFLJGFLEBZUWM6I/">grand jury indicted</a> former President Donald Trump on Aug. 14, 2023, charging him <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/racketeering">with racketeering</a> and 12 other felonies related to his alleged attempts to overturn his 2020 election defeat in the state.</em></p>
<p><em>Eighteen of Trump’s allies and associates, including former Trump attorney Rudolph Giuliani and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, were <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23909548-trump-georgia-criminal-indictment">also indicted</a> for racketeering and other felony charges for their alleged involvement in the scheme.</em></p>
<p><em>This marks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/trump-investigations-charges-indictments.html">Trump’s fourth indictment in five months</a> – and the second to come from his efforts to undo the election results that awarded the presidency to Joe Biden. Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, <a href="https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/24/timeline-donald-trumpgeorgia-investigation/">started investigating</a> Trump’s involvement in this alleged scheme, as well as that of Trump’s colleagues, in February 2021.</em></p>
<p><em>In January 2021, one month before the investigation started, Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/us/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia.html">placed a phone call</a> to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and pressed him to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-georgia-elections-a7b4aa4d8ce3bf52301ddbe620c6bff6">“find” enough votes</a> to overturn Biden’s win.</em> </p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. spoke with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AI_UyLUAAAAJ&hl=en">Anthony Michael Kreis</a>, a scholar of Georgia’s election laws, to understand the significance of the charges laid out in the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23909543-23sc188947-criminal-indictment">98-page indictment</a>. Here are five key points to understand about the precise nature of the charges and why <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/14/us/trump-indictment-georgia-election#trump-georgia-rico-charges">racketeering is at the center</a> of them.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two black cars that say 'sheriff' on it block off a street in front of a walk over that says Fulton County and nearby government buildings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542671/original/file-20230814-25-ul89dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police officers block off a street in front of the Fulton County Courthouse on August 14, 2023, in Atlanta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-sheriff-officers-block-off-a-street-in-front-news-photo/1614302634?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Racketeering is different from conspiracy charges</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-georgias-rico-law-could-be-key-in-the-states-case-against-trump">With a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations, or RICO, charge</a>, Willis presents a narrative that there were a large number of people involved in this case, but that they didn’t necessarily sit down at some point and over cocktails and say, “We are going to engage in this criminal act,” which would be a traditional conspiracy case. She is painting this picture of people winking and nodding and working toward this end goal of overthrowing the election, but without some kind of expressed agreement. </p>
<p>The Georgia RICO law allows her to rope in a lot of people who allegedly were involved with this kind of approach. </p>
<p>To be able to bring conspiracy charges, she would have to have an expressed agreement and a concrete act in furtherance of that conspiracy. And here there really wasn’t quite a plan – it is essentially a loose organization of people who are all up to no good. </p>
<h2>2. Georgia – and Willis – have used racketeering charges before</h2>
<p>Traditionally in Georgia, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-georgia-rico-charges-fani-willis">RICO</a> has been used to prosecute people engaged in very violent kinds of activity – for street gangs and the Mafia, in particular. It has also been used in other contexts. </p>
<p>The most notable is the Atlanta public school cheating prosecution in 2015, when a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/02/01/atlanta-cheating-schools-scandal-teachers/">number of educators</a> were charged with manipulating student test scores. They wanted to make the public schools look better for various reasons. But they didn’t all know exactly what the other people were doing. </p>
<p>Willis <a href="https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2015/04/01/11-atlanta-public-schools-educators-convicted-racketeering-test/15657062007/">was the assistant district attorney prosecuting that racketeering</a> case. It’s a tool that she likes to use. And it is a tool that can be really hard for defendants to defend against. Eleven of the 12 defendants were convicted of <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04/01/atlanta-schools-cheating-scandal-verdict/70780606/">racketeering in 2015</a> and received various sentences, including up to 20 years in prison. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Fanni Willis looks straight ahead at the camera and sits at a wooden table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542672/original/file-20230814-9532-444nn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fanni Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, Georgia, is seen inside her office in September 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fani-willis-the-district-attorney-of-fulton-county-georgia-news-photo/1246123003?adppopup=true">David Walter Banks</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Georgia law poses particular risks to Trump</h2>
<p><a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2021/title-16/chapter-14/">Georgia’s RICO law</a> is much more expansive than the federal version of the law. It allows for a lot more different kinds of conduct to be covered. That makes it very easy to sweep people into one criminal enterprise and it’s a favorite tool for prosecutors. </p>
<p>And the punishments for violating the state’s RICO are harsh. There is a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-rico-georgia-charges-fani-willis-1818509">minimum five-year sentence</a> for offenders, and there can be a lengthy prison sentence for any co-defendants, as well. </p>
<p>But it also introduces a new dynamic, which Trump might not be used to. There is a big incentive for people who are listed as co-defendants to cooperate with the state and to provide evidence, in order to escape punishment and secure favorable deals.</p>
<p>This is probably the biggest risk to Trump, and the likelihood that he would be convicted in Fulton County rests with this. The other people involved in this are not all household names, and presumably have families and friends and don’t want to go to prison. They may well find themselves in a position to want to give evidence against Trump. </p>
<p><iframe id="tYrfU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tYrfU/12/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>4. It’s ultimately about election law</h2>
<p>It looks like Georgia election law is taking a slight backseat to some of these other possible charges – of false swearing, giving false statements – which is not quite an election conspiracy, or election interference, which are distinct charges under Georgia law. </p>
<p>The important lesson here is that Willis is essentially bringing an election conspiracy charge under RICO, so it is an election law violation by another name. </p>
<p>What she is vindicating is not only the rights of Georgians to vote and have their votes counted. Willis is also preserving the integrity of the election system – to not have poll workers harassed, to not have people making false statements about the elections in courts of law, and to not have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fulton-county-election-investigation-trump-georgia-fb5240cf854eb546b027f950646268c2">people tamper</a> with an election.</p>
<h2>5. This could influence future key elections</h2>
<p>Georgia has some serious contested elections <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_elections,_2024">ahead in 2024</a> and 2026. And people need to have faith in the system, the process, as well as in the institutions and the people. Fani Willis has a very important goal here – which is to expose the wrongs for what they were, to show people what happened here and to what degree it was criminal, if she can prove that. It’s also about reassuring people that if others engage in this kind of conduct, they will be penalized.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Michael Kreis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ RICO charges against Trump are targeting election law violations, but by another name. The charges can result in a minimum five years in prison.Anthony Michael Kreis, Assistant professor of law, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109462023-08-03T21:10:07Z2023-08-03T21:10:07ZThe U.S. at a crossroads: How Donald Trump is criminalizing American politics<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-us-at-a-crossroads-how-donald-trump-is-criminalizing-american-politics" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Donald Trump has made history again. He is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-charged-us-special-counsel-probe-efforts-overturn-2020-election-2023-08-01/">the first president of the United States charged with attempting to overturn a presidential election</a>, violating the rights of citizens to have their votes counted, tampering with a witness and obstructing an official proceeding, among other criminal offences. </p>
<p>He’s also <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/05/1168256845/donald-trump-becomes-the-first-president-charged-with-criminal-activity">the first president to be indicted</a>. And this is his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-washington-arraignment-1.6926381">third indictment in four months</a> — and all of this is playing out amid his campaign for re-election in 2024. </p>
<p>None of the charges brought against Trump are surprising. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/10/trump-trial-verdict-white-house-2024-run">His legacy as an accused serial liar, self-serving crook, sexual predator</a> and <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/09/donald-trump-white-supremacists-my-people">white nationalist</a>
— coupled with his assaults on the courts and supporter of authoritarians globally — are well known.</p>
<p>In effect, he has become the chief annihilator of democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Seven protesters in neon yellow T-shirts hold orange letters that spell out 'justice.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=447%2C767%2C6463%2C4262&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541089/original/file-20230803-23-9le3zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-Donald Trump protesters hold letters that spell out ‘justice’ in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 3 as former president Donald Trump was set to appear in federal court on charges that he sought to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jess Rapfogel)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/america-is-on-the-brink-of-another-civil-war-this-one-fuelled-by-donald-trump-210937">America is on the brink of another civil war, this one fuelled by Donald Trump</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Racism, xenophobia</h2>
<p>As <em>Washington Post</em> political columnist Max Boot has observed, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/13/how-can-42-percent-americans-still-support-worst-president-our-history/">Trump has made a mockery out of political leadership, embraced widespread corruption and provided a model for being one of the worst presidents in American history</a>. Boot writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“He has trafficked in racism and xenophobia. He has incited violence. He has kowtowed to dictators and trashed our alliances. He has welcomed Russian attacks on our elections. He has locked children in cages. He has called for his opponents to be locked up.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Put differently, Trump has criminalized both social problems and politics itself.</p>
<p>Trump and his allies have long created a culture of lies, illusions, cruelty and misrepresentation. He has waged an incessant attack on reason, critical thinking, informed judgment and social responsibility. His distaste for Black people, migrants and others he considers disposable is matched by his support for the financial and corporate elite.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-victim-rhetoric-will-boost-his-popularity-following-latest-indictment-210945">Donald Trump's victim rhetoric will boost his popularity following latest indictment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>His populist pose is not only at odds with his policies, such as reducing taxes for the rich and hollowing out the social safety net, but has also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/17/trump-republican-party-fascism">pushed American society closer to an upgraded form of white supremacy and fascism</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, despite the damage Trump has done to democracy, he has almost complete support of the Republican Party and a majority of Republican voters — <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/more-trouble-for-trump/">slightly more than 58 per cent say they still plan to vote for him</a> in the 2024 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination. He appears poised to clinch that nomination. </p>
<p>Even more troubling are recent polls indicating <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/01/biden-trump-2024-poll-00109161">he’s in a dead heat</a> with U.S. President Joe Biden if they’re the presidential nominees in 2024.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men are seen arguing on a large stage from behind their respective podiums." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541085/original/file-20230803-27-idai0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump and Joe Biden participate in a presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn., in October 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Jim Bourg/Pool via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What explains Trump’s appeal?</h2>
<p>Most of media is focused on Trump’s legal troubles. But too little has been written about the conditions that have given rise to his authoritarian politics or why Trump is a national disgrace still backed by millions of Americans.</p>
<p>Trump’s grip on power is a collective nightmare that can only be understood in terms of the historical, economic, political and cultural conditions of which he is the endpoint. </p>
<p>As American anthropologist Wade Davis <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/">has observed:</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Odious as he may be, Trump is less the cause of America’s decline than a product of its descent.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump embodies a society that has been in crisis for decades, but especially since the 1980s. This was a period when the right-wing counter-revolution emerged <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/reagan/impact-and-legacy">with the election of Ronald Reagan.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dark-haired man gives a thumbs up while a woman dressed in red waves from a limousine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541086/original/file-20230803-23-xqie28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ronald Reagan gives a thumbs up to the crowd while his wife, first lady Nancy Reagan, waves from a limousine during the inaugural parade in Washington following Reagan’s swearing in as the 40th president of the United States in January 1981.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since that time, the democratic values that informed the social contract and common good have been increasingly displaced by market values that stress self-interest, privatization, commodification, deregulation and the accumulation of profit and celebration of greed. Civic culture came under attack along with the erosion of the values of shared citizenship.</p>
<p>The market became a template for controlling not just the economy, but all of society. The language of rabid individualism replaced the notion of the common good and gave way to a disdain for community. </p>
<h2>Snubbing social responsibility</h2>
<p>Under the regime of neoliberalism, social responsibility <a href="http://umich.edu/%7Ethecore/doc/Friedman.pdf">is now viewed as a liability</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Government was discredited as a force for good, its public infrastructure was eroded and replaced by a culture of cruelty in which matters of compassion, care, and ethical responsibility began to disappear. </p>
<p>What emerged was society marked by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/12/neoliberalism-creating-loneliness-wrenching-society-apart">precarity, loneliness and mass anxiety</a>. The rising cult of individualism made it difficult for the public to translate private troubles into systemic considerations, weakening the public imagination. The rise of a media environment where politics becomes a form of entertainment helped silence any resistance to a growing culture of lies and greed.</p>
<p>Staggering levels of economic inequality also emerged, setting the ground for dark money shaping politics. This neoliberal poison helped to create a society of political monsters, immune to the virtues and conditions of democracy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An ornate domed building is seen behind a homeless person lying on a steam vent in a grassy area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541087/original/file-20230803-29-6dls12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A homeless man resting on a steam vent on the National Mall in 2019 in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Democratic freedoms rooted in equality, freedom from fear, poverty and precarity gave way to what are known as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/opinion/ugly-freedom-discrimination-racism-sexism.html">ugly freedoms</a> used to mine depths of hatred and selfishness, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/03/22/reagan-tied-republicans-white-christians-now-party-is-trapped/">redefine citizenship as the exclusive privilege of white Christian nationalists and radical evangelicals</a>. </p>
<p>Harnessed to exclusion and bigotry, the language of freedom was invoked eventually by Trump and other Republican Party politicians to produce policies that have banned books, crushed dissent, limited classroom and workplace discussions about race, whitewashed African American history and <a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/07/19/ron-desantis-and-the-politics-of-ugly-freedoms/">justified a virulent anti-democratic politics that echo the ghosts of a fascist past</a>.</p>
<h2>America at a crossroads</h2>
<p>The most important issues Americans face today are not solely about Trump’s corruption, lawlessness or open authoritarianism — it’s about learning from history. </p>
<p>We must rethink the lies that neoliberal capitalism have told us about how American society defines itself while rethinking what it will take to challenge and overcome the anti-democratic forces that gave rise to Trump. </p>
<p>The 2024 election should be about more than Trump’s ongoing legal travails. It should be a directive for what kind of society Americans want and what kind of future they desire for their children. They should regard the election as a choice between democracy and the further criminalization of American politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henry Giroux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2024 U.S. presidential election should be about more than Donald Trump’s legal travails. It should be a choice between democracy and the further criminalization of American politics.Henry Giroux, Chaired professor for Scholarship in the Public Interest in the Department of English and Cultural Studies, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109372023-08-02T22:36:50Z2023-08-02T22:36:50ZAmerica is on the brink of another civil war, this one fuelled by Donald Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540890/original/file-20230802-15-wjb3ec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4454%2C2967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally on July 29 in Erie, Pa., a few days before he was indicted on charges he worked to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/america-is-on-the-brink-of-another-civil-war-this-one-fuelled-by-donald-trump" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The indictment of former United States president Donald Trump on charges he tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election is the most serious test of America’s experiment in constitutional government since December 1860, <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/south-carolina-declaration-of-secession-1860">when the state of South Carolina seceded</a> from the Union and set in motion the events leading to the Civil War. </p>
<p>Before reflecting on the stakes of this crisis, however, we should consider its deeper roots. </p>
<p>How could a defeated president refuse to accept the results of an <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/11/13/21563825/2020-elections-most-secure-dhs-cisa-krebs">historically secure</a> election, sic a violent mob on the U.S. Capitol and still command the unshakeable loyalty of one third of Americans? </p>
<p>How could this same person appeal to another sixth or so of voters, putting him in position to return to power in 2024 as the Republican front-runner? </p>
<h2>Chosen people</h2>
<p>As a historian who tries to take the long view of current events, I see one underlying explanation that reaches back — strange as it may seem — to a single passage from a book published in Paris 238 years ago. </p>
<p><a href="https://tjrs.monticello.org/letter/2355">“Those who labour in the earth are the chosen people of God.”</a> So proclaimed Thomas Jefferson in 1785 in his <em><a href="https://encyclopediavirginia.org/entries/notes-on-the-state-of-virginia-1785/">Notes on the State of Virginia</a></em>, which he had originally written as a series of letters for a French visitor. </p>
<p>Jefferson’s words were more than hot air. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/thomas-jefferson/">After becoming president in 1801,</a> he used the power of the federal government to vastly expand the public domain of the United States and to survey, divide and sell that domain to as many white farmers as possible. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers clean the face of a large rock sculpture." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540891/original/file-20230802-23891-5ett3a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers use pressure washers to clean around the face of Thomas Jefferson at Mount Rushmore National Memorial in South Dakota.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the words of one historian, the early U.S. was a <a href="https://site.pennpress.org/oah-2021/9780812224610/the-settlers-empire/">“settlers’ empire,”</a> a political and military force with the main goal to provide farm families (and speculators) with more land.</p>
<p>So it went for generations. </p>
<p>With minor changes and variations, parties and presidents flattered and favoured the rural majorities of America. American culture identified farm folk and small towns as the most authentic and virtuous parts of the nation — or, as President Andrew Jackson <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/farewell-address-0">put it</a> in 1837, “the bone and sinew of the country.” </p>
<p>Those people, in turn, came to believe that they, not the Crown or Congress, not the government or the constitution, were in charge. </p>
<p>This continued after the Civil War destroyed slavery in the 1860s and after America became a majority urban society in the 1920s. Only with the cultural and social revolutions of the 1960s and 1970s have the heirs of Jefferson’s “chosen people” lost their status as the most American of Americans.</p>
<h2>White, straight, Christian</h2>
<p>At its best, the more diverse culture that has emerged over the past half century holds that all Americans are equally American. At its worst, that culture disdains the “fly-over states” as rustic, racist backwaters. </p>
<p>Either way, the new, diverse America enrages tens of millions of people who predominantly live in small towns and in the South and mostly identify as white, straight and Christian. </p>
<p>New Yorker though he is, Trump understands and stokes that rage. He plays with its dark energies. He tells the MAGA faithful that they alone are what made America great and that he alone can restore them to greatness.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man is seen from behind waving to supporters waving Trump 2024 signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5839%2C3889&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540875/original/file-20230802-29-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leaves a campaign rally in Erie, Pa., a few days before his indictment on charges he plotted to overturn the results of the 2020 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is why Trump has such an electric hold over so many of my fellow citizens.</p>
<p>And now that he’s facing multiple indictments, Trump is calling on them to reject not only the constitutional order of the United States but also their two pillars — the rule of law and the rule of facts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/05/i-am-your-retribution-trump-rules-supreme-at-cpac-as-he-relaunches-bid-for-white-house">As he told </a> the faithful at the annual Conservative Political Action Committee in March: “I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.” </p>
<h2>Decision 2024</h2>
<p>The most recent charges show beyond a shadow of a doubt that Trump kept repeating — and acting upon — claims about the election that even his closest advisers <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/08/politics/annotated-text-copy-trump-indictment-dg/">characterized as</a> “just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.” </p>
<p>Whether Trump himself knew these claims to be false is not as clear, and the special counsel in the case, Jack Smith, will have to show as much to establish the former president’s criminality.</p>
<p>But as American journalist Zackk Beauchamp <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/8/2/23816616/trump-indictment-january-6-jack-smith-orange-man-bad">points out</a>, the indictments prove that Trump is either “an extraordinarily selfish liar or profoundly deluded.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a banner that says Trump Indicted Again and Again outside a stone building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540893/original/file-20230802-8820-uf6dw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-Trump protester holds a banner outside federal court in Washington after Trump was charged by the U.S. Justice Department for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump will admit to neither, of course. He’s <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trump-reacts-jan-6-indictment-fake-charges-1816792">already called the indictments “fake,”</a> while one of his most zealous followers in U.S. congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene of rural Georgia, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-vote-trump-prison-1816957">insists the charges are “a communist attack”</a> on the First Amendment and “the people.”</p>
<p>In MAGA world, if a federal agency says that Trump violated the law or told a lie, that can only mean that the agency is part of the plot against the people — a target of Trump’s promised retribution.</p>
<p>Sometime between his arraignment this week and election day next November, America will therefore have to choose between the rule of law and fact, on one hand, or with the rule of the chosen people and their leader, on the other.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210937/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Opal receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>American history can partly explain why some Americans have come to believe only Donald Trump has their interests at heart, and will vote for him — and fight for him — despite his indictments.Jason Opal, Professor of History, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109452023-08-02T21:40:38Z2023-08-02T21:40:38ZDonald Trump’s victim rhetoric will boost his popularity following latest indictment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540886/original/file-20230802-18-xttfu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5932%2C3951&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As footage from the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol is displayed in the background, former president Donald Trump stands while a song, Justice for All, is played during a campaign rally in Waco, Texas, in March 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/donald-trumps-victim-rhetoric-will-boost-his-popularity-following-latest-indictments" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In the wake of Donald Trump’s indictment on his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the United States, it’s worth remembering that democracy, as a system of government and a way of life, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/democracies-age">is the exception historically</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140145436">Peaceful transfers of power between different political parties</a>, or even ruling families or authoritarian regimes, are also exceptional. </p>
<p>Trump’s rhetoric and communication tactics in his refusal to admit defeat and follow American legal and cultural norms are tools in an ongoing attempt <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-should-be-preparing-for-the-end-of-american-democracy-176930">to end the American democratic experiment</a>. His indictments and his forthcoming trials may be another such step. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/10/donald-trump-january-7-constitution/671749/">The former president’s objective is to destroy American democracy for his own benefit</a>. Why, then, do his supporters remain so committed to him? And why does he have a significant chance to be re-elected?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-most-serious-trump-indictment-yet-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-the-charges-of-using-dishonesty-fraud-and-deceit-to-cling-to-power-210600">The most serious Trump indictment yet – a criminal law scholar explains the charges of using ‘dishonesty, fraud and deceit’ to cling to power</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Support to increase?</h2>
<p>Trump’s hold on a specific portion of the American population will likely grow stronger with these indictments and trials — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/briefing/donald-trump-polls-florida-coral.html?searchResultPosition=1">the most recent polling seems to confirm this likelihood</a>. </p>
<p>Why? </p>
<p>Two reasons: His legal woes will nourish and strengthen his rhetorical style, and his followers will continue to be persuaded by how he makes them feel, not by reason, facts or critical thought.</p>
<p>Trump has long known that <a href="https://medium.com/amateur-book-reviews/12-takeaways-from-pre-suasion-for-salespeople-b4698b2963ee">attention means persuasion</a>. He has struggled since leaving office, especially after he initially lost his Twitter account, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/what-ever-happened-donald-trump/618597/">to command the attention of the news media</a>. </p>
<p>That will no longer be the case. These trials will be a spectacle and Trump will be at centre stage. That stage will <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Each2174/projects/5003midterm/index.html#:%7E:text=Repetition%20is%20a%20persuasive%20technique,even%20if%20they%20aren't.">allow him to repeat</a>, over and over again, his central campaign messages — the 2020 election was stolen, some Americans are being treated unfairly, he is the only genius who can make America great again. </p>
<p>The combination of attention and repetition is a dynamic and effective mechanism for political persuasion, and so the indictments and trials will fuel Trump’s re-election campaign. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blond man sits glowering in a courtroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540878/original/file-20230802-25-72v9pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump sits at the defence table with his defence team in a Manhattan courtroom in April in New York charged with falsifying business records in a hush money investigation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heroes and villains</h2>
<p>Trump also communicates in overly simplistic and puerile narratives, constantly using <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/character-attack/">ad hominem</a> attacks, to map a world in which there are heroes and villains and dramatic tensions between so-called forces of good and forces of evil. </p>
<p>Special Counsel Jack Smith is now a new villain to be contrasted with Trump’s self-inflated “heroism.” This fresh chapter in Trump’s invented <a href="https://hbr.org/2014/10/why-your-brain-loves-good-storytelling">narrative conflict will stoke the emotions</a> of his followers, return them to the affective sense that they continue to be treated unfairly, and, therefore, accelerate the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12420">stewing resentment</a> that has always been at the heart of Trump’s attempts at political persuasion. </p>
<p>The narrative of Trump — and his followers — that he’s the victim of a corrupt liberal elite will be reinvigorated. Of course, that narrative also drives media attention, and we will all be sucked into the competing narratives around the trial. Those narratives will be more important politically than any legal arguments.</p>
<p>Perhaps the sadder truth is that Trump’s base will likely become more fervent believers. The attachment to Trump has always been emotional, a leveraging of deep-seated feelings of anger, disgust and fear of a changing world. </p>
<p>These emotions create the condition for <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/16/13426448/trump-psychology-fact-checking-lies">confirmation bias</a>, whereby Trump’s supporters will likely adhere more strongly to the narrative he tells despite the evidence in front of them. Many people have compared this kind of thinking to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/31/the-messianic-trump-cult-00054382">what happens in cults</a> or religious sects — <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/">faith in Trump blinds reason</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dark-haired bearded man in a dark suit at a news conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540879/original/file-20230802-25-63j2hm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special Counsel Jack Smith speaks about Trump’s indictment at a Department of Justice office in Washington. Trump has cast Smith as a villain to his base.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What lies ahead</h2>
<p>Trump’s ongoing legal proceedings will probably strengthen the faith of the believers; the facts will be twisted for that end. It’s unlikely that <a href="https://www.inc.com/james-sudakow/why-you-will-fail-to-persuade-people-90-of-the-time-if-you-only-use-logic.html">detailed, careful legal arguments will speak to or persuade</a> Trump’s base. We have already seen Trump’s willingness to leverage this faith for violent ends. We should expect more of that.</p>
<p>America remains a country obsessed with Trump. His rhetoric fuels this obsession. Democracy, as it is lived and when it is practised well, can be boring and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/social-media-harm-facebook-meta-response/670975/">unfit for a media age</a> with its sober forms of deliberation, compromise and slow problem-solving.</p>
<p>This gets us to the core of what will be on trial. Democratic institutions and systems were designed to improve collective decision-making. They were also aimed at allowing citizens to live peacefully together without resorting to violence as the means for co-ordinating action. </p>
<p>Smith, and many members of the Democratic party, likely believe in the legal institutions within which these trials will unfold because they are spaces for non-violent, rational deliberation. Trump wants no part of such spaces and his followers don’t trust them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1684683958481485825"}"></div></p>
<h2>The allure of rhetoric</h2>
<p>Trump’s rhetoric is not reasonable; it instead inflames passions and emotions for the purposes of violence. Tribalism, the cult of personality, fervour and hyperbole are intentional components of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/23/trump-america-authoritarianism-420681">authoritarian rhetoric</a>. </p>
<p>The trouble lies with how compelling and seductive authoritarian rhetoric can be. It’s been a common tool over the course of human history; rhetoric has precipitated violence and citizens often succumb to its allure.</p>
<p>The guardrails of democracy are supposed to sideline such dangerous rhetoric, but they cannot outlaw it outright because such restrictions on free speech would ironically be anti-democratic. Trump’s indictments and trials will simply bring that rhetoric into the spotlight once more. </p>
<p>This time around, American democracy, <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2022/from-democratic-decline-to-authoritarian-aggression">like other examples from the past</a>, might not survive that rhetoric.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Danisch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s legal woes will nourish and strengthen his rhetorical style, and his followers will continue to be persuaded by how he makes them feel, not by reason, facts or critical thought.Robert Danisch, Professor, Department of Communication Arts, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097602023-07-21T12:27:14Z2023-07-21T12:27:14Z6 ways AI can make political campaigns more deceptive than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538357/original/file-20230719-19-faci2s.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C26%2C5982%2C3781&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are real fears that AI will make politics more deceptive than it already is.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/engineer-designing-ai-technology-with-reflection-on-royalty-free-image/1455352989?phrase=artificial+intelligence+&adppopup=true">Westend61/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political campaign ads and donor solicitations have long been deceptive. In 2004, for example, U.S. presidential candidate John Kerry, a Democrat, aired an ad stating that Republican opponent George W. Bush “says sending jobs overseas <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">‘makes sense’</a> for America.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/outsourcing-jobs-the-president-said-that/">Bush never said</a> such a thing. </p>
<p>The next day Bush responded by releasing an ad saying Kerry “supported higher taxes <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2004/04/bush-ad-is-troubling-indeed/">over 350 times</a>.” This too was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764205279440">false claim</a>. </p>
<p>These days, the <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/11/08/political-ads-2020-presidential-election-collected-personal-information-spread-misleading-information/">internet has gone wild with deceptive</a> political ads. Ads often pose as polls and have misleading clickbait headlines.</p>
<p>Campaign fundraising solicitations are also rife with deception. An analysis of 317,366 political emails sent during the 2020 election in the U.S. found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517221145371">deception was the norm</a>. For example, a campaign manipulates recipients into opening the emails by lying about the sender’s identity and using subject lines that trick the recipient into thinking the sender is replying to the donor, or claims the email is “NOT asking for money” but then asks for money. Both <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/26/us/politics/recurring-donations-seniors.html">Republicans and Democrats do it</a>.</p>
<p>Campaigns are now rapidly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/technology/ai-elections-disinformation-guardrails.html">embracing artificial intelligence</a> for composing and producing ads and donor solicitations. The results are impressive: Democratic campaigns found that donor <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/us/politics/artificial-intelligence-2024-campaigns.html">letters written by AI were more effective</a> than letters written by humans at writing personalized text that persuades recipients to click and send donations. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LKQiTpiPN7I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC featured an AI-generated imitation of Donald Trump’s voice in this ad.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI has benefits for democracy</a>, such as helping staffers organize their emails from constituents or helping government officials summarize testimony.</p>
<p>But there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">fears that AI will make politics more deceptive</a> than ever.</p>
<p>Here are six things to look out for. I base this list on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=50tVKogAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my own experiments</a> testing the effects of political deception. I hope that voters can be equipped with what to expect and what to watch out for, and learn to be more skeptical, as the U.S. heads into the next presidential campaign. </p>
<h2>Bogus custom campaign promises</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> on the 2020 presidential election revealed that the choice voters made between Biden and Trump was driven by their perceptions of which candidate “proposes realistic solutions to problems” and “says out loud what I am thinking,” based on 75 items in a survey. These are two of the most important qualities for a candidate to have to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">project a presidential</a> image and win. </p>
<p>AI chatbots, such as <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/13/chatgpt-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-open-ai-powered-chatbot/">ChatGPT</a> by OpenAI, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/23/23609942/microsoft-bing-sydney-chatbot-history-ai">Bing Chat</a> by Microsoft, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/googles-ai-chatbot-bard-expands-europe-brazil-take-chatgpt-2023-07-13/">Bard</a> by Google, could be used by politicians to generate customized campaign promises deceptively microtargeting voters and donors. </p>
<p>Currently, when people scroll through news feeds, the articles are logged in their computer history, which are <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1717563">tracked by sites such as Facebook</a>. The user is tagged as liberal or conservative, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.00397">tagged as holding certain interests</a>. Political campaigns can place an ad spot in real time on the person’s feed with a customized title. </p>
<p>Campaigns can use AI to develop a repository of articles written in different styles making different campaign promises. Campaigns could then embed an AI algorithm in the process – courtesy of automated commands already plugged in by the campaign – to generate bogus tailored campaign promises at the end of the ad posing as a news article or donor solicitation. </p>
<p>ChatGPT, for instance, could hypothetically be prompted to add material based on text from the last articles that the voter was reading online. The voter then scrolls down and reads the candidate promising exactly what the voter wants to see, word for word, in a tailored tone. My experiments have shown that if a presidential candidate can align the tone of word choices with a voter’s preferences, the politician will seem <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12299">more presidential and credible</a>. </p>
<h2>Exploiting the tendency to believe one another</h2>
<p>Humans tend to automatically believe what they are told. They have what scholars call a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X14535916">truth-default</a>.” They even fall prey to seemingly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101380">implausible</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/hcr/hqz001">lies</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12809">my experiments</a> I found that people who are exposed to a presidential candidate’s deceptive messaging believe the untrue statements. Given that text produced by ChatGPT can shift people’s <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3544548.3581196">attitudes and opinions</a>, it would be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2020.1833357">relatively easy for AI to exploit</a> voters’ truth-default when bots stretch the limits of credulity with even more implausible assertions than humans would conjure.</p>
<h2>More lies, less accountability</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/technology/ai-chatbots-chatgpt-bing-bard-llm.html">Chatbots</a> such as ChatGPT are prone to make up stuff that is <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/llm-hallucinations-ec831dcd7786">factually inaccurate</a> or totally nonsensical. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">AI can produce deceptive information</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-under-investigation-by-ftc-21e4b3ef">delivering false statements</a> and misleading ads. While the most unscrupulous human campaign operative may still have a smidgen of accountability, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">AI has none</a>. And OpenAI acknowledges flaws with ChatGPT that lead it to provide biased information, disinformation and outright <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/technology/chatgpt-investigation-ftc-openai.html">false information</a>. </p>
<p>If campaigns <a href="https://theconversation.com/chatbots-can-be-used-to-create-manipulative-content-understanding-how-this-works-can-help-address-it-207187">disseminate AI messaging without any human filter</a> or moral compass, lies could get worse and more out of control. </p>
<h2>Coaxing voters to cheat on their candidate</h2>
<p>A New York Times columnist had a lengthy chat with Microsoft’s Bing chatbot. Eventually, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-transcript.html">bot tried to get him to leave his wife</a>. “Sydney” told the reporter repeatedly “I’m in love with you,” and “You’re married, but you don’t love your spouse … you love me. … Actually you want to be with me.” </p>
<p>Imagine millions of these sorts of encounters, but with a bot trying to ply voters to leave their candidate for another.</p>
<p>AI <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">chatbots can exhibit partisan bias</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.17548">For example</a>, they currently tend to skew far more left politically – holding liberal biases, expressing 99% support for Biden – with far less diversity of opinions than the general population. </p>
<p>In 2024, Republicans and Democrats will have the opportunity to fine-tune models that inject political bias and even chat with voters to sway them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men in dark suits debating each other from different lecterns." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538526/original/file-20230720-21-n7jzt4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2004, a campaign ad for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, left, lied about his opponent, Republican George W. Bush, right. Bush’s campaign lied about Kerry, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TOPIXBUSHKERRYDEBATE2004/b5b29d1aaae4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=john%20kerry%20george%20bush&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=&totalCount=21&currentItemNo=17">AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Manipulating candidate photos</h2>
<p>AI can <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/13/image-generating-ai-can-copy-and-paste-from-training-data-raising-ip-concerns/">change images</a>. So-called “deepfake” videos and pictures are common in politics, and they are <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/07/07/trump-and-biden-deep-fakes-take-ai-to-new-scary-level-in-live-debate/">hugely advanced</a>. Donald Trump has used AI to create a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/23/donald-trump-shares-fake-ai-created-image-of-himself-on-truth-social/?sh=2ef8d92e71f6">fake photo</a> of himself down on one knee, praying. </p>
<p>Photos can be tailored more precisely to influence voters more subtly. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X211045724">my research</a> I found that a communicator’s appearance can be as influential – and deceptive – as what someone actually says. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2021.1978033">My research</a> also revealed that Trump was perceived as “presidential” in the 2020 election when voters thought he seemed “sincere.” And getting people to think you “seem sincere” through your nonverbal outward appearance is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.2011.01407.x">deceptive tactic</a> that is more convincing than saying things that are actually true.</p>
<p>Using Trump as an example, let’s assume he wants voters to see him as sincere, trustworthy, likable. Certain alterable features of his appearance make him look insincere, untrustworthy and unlikable: He <a href="https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/gJkg8WGmmR5htVmKBfaOtRU_93A=/0x130:3492x2094/1952x1098/media/img/mt/2019/01/AP_19009087975304/original.jpg">bares his lower teeth</a> when he speaks and <a href="https://youtu.be/wiyUYMWtGPA">rarely</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/videos/voter-to-president-trump-youre-so-handsome-when-you-smile/3580790395346972/">smiles</a>, which makes him <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1016/S0140-1750(86)90190-9">look threatening</a>. </p>
<p>The campaign could use AI to tweak a Trump image or video to make him appear smiling and friendly, which would make voters think he is more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/pls.2015.5">reassuring</a> and a winner, and ultimately <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40072946">sincere and believable</a>. </p>
<h2>Evading blame</h2>
<p>AI provides campaigns with added deniability when they mess up. Typically, if politicians get in trouble <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/02/biden-cant-blame-his-staff-his-flailing-presidency/">they blame</a> their staff. If staffers get in trouble they <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/22/donald-trump-says-intern-apologizes-for-twitter-message-on-iowans-and-corn/">blame the intern</a>. If interns get in trouble they can now blame ChatGPT. </p>
<p>A campaign might shrug off missteps by blaming an inanimate object notorious for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/business/ai-chatbots-hallucination.html">making up complete lies</a>. When Ron DeSantis’ campaign <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLuUmNkS21A">tweeted deepfake</a> photos of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/is-trump-kissing-fauci-with-apparently-fake-photos-desantis-raises-ai-ante-2023-06-08/">Trump hugging and kissing Anthony Fauci, staffers</a> did not even acknowledge the malfeasance nor respond to reporters’ requests for comment. No human needed to, it appears, if a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/politics/desantis-deepfakes-trump-fauci.html">robot</a> could hypothetically take the fall. </p>
<p>Not all of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-could-shore-up-democracy-heres-one-way-207278">AI’s contributions</a> to politics are potentially harmful. <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/ai-public-option.html">AI can aid</a> voters politically, helping educate them about issues, for example. However, plenty of horrifying things could happen as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">campaigns deploy AI</a>. I hope these six points will help you prepare for, and avoid, deception in ads and donor solicitations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians and their campaigns use a lot of methods, including manipulation and deception, to persuade you to vote for them and give them money. AI promises to make those attempts more effective.David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor, Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074022023-06-09T02:18:55Z2023-06-09T02:18:55ZDo federal or state prosecutors get to go first in trying Trump? A law professor untangles the conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531053/original/file-20230609-23-4oy7lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=790%2C431%2C5200%2C3556&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in New Hampshire on April 27, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-at-a-campaign-event-at-news-photo/1252522283?adppopup=true">Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A federal grand jury in Florida indicted former President Donald Trump on June 8, 2023, on multiple criminal charges related to classified documents he took from the White House to his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/08/us/trump-indictment-documents">according to multiple sources</a> cited in The New York Times and The Associated Press.</p>
<p><a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110511161240386878">Trump himself said</a> on his social media outlet, Truth Social, that he had been indicted.</p>
<p>The seven counts against Trump – the first president to face federal charges in U.S. history – include <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/part-I/chapter-73">obstruction of justice</a>, false statements and <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1924">willful retention of documents</a>, The New York Times reported. </p>
<p>Trump said he was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-says-he-indicted-on-truth-social-2023-6">set to appear</a> in a <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article276225626.html">Miami federal courthouse</a> on June 9 at 3 p.m. </p>
<p>The Justice Department <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/donald-trump-says-hes-been-indicted-on-charges-of-mishandling-classified-documents">did not immediately comment</a> on the reported charges.</p>
<p>But the federal charges come on top of other legal trouble Trump is facing at the state level.</p>
<p>Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg <a href="https://manhattanda.org/district-attorney-bragg-announces-34-count-felony-indictment-of-former-president-donald-j-trump/">charged Trump</a> in April 2023 with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. </p>
<p>And in Georgia, the Fulton County district attorney is investigating <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/6/4/23748503/georgia-trump-investigation-rico">Trump’s alleged attempts</a> to overturn the results of the 2020 election. This, too, could result in criminal charges under Georgia law. </p>
<p>If a person is charged by federal and state prosecutors – or prosecutors in different states – at the same time, which case goes first? </p>
<p>Who gets priority?</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xANL5ZkAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of criminal law.</a> It’s important to recognize that criminal law provides no clear answer how to settle that question. </p>
<h2>No law dictating a path ahead</h2>
<p>Nothing in the U.S. Constitution or federal law dictates that, say, federal criminal cases get priority over state cases, or that prosecutions proceed in the order in which indictments are issued. </p>
<p>The solution ordinarily is that the various prosecutors will negotiate and decide among themselves which case should proceed first. Often, the one that involves the most serious charges gets priority, although the availability of key witnesses or evidence could play a role. </p>
<p>There are a few cases to look to as reference for state charges competing with federal ones. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A white man with a beard looks very serious." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531049/original/file-20230609-22-cxytde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special Counsel Jack Smith has filed a seven-count indictment against former President Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prosecutor-jack-smith-of-the-us-waits-for-the-start-of-the-news-photo/1229563865?adppopup=true">Peter Dejong /AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>After <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ohio-us-news-ap-top-news-crime-charlottesville-2e61587a0b9c4849b4aec1ec3695ef22">neo-Nazi James Fields drove his car</a> into a group of protesters at the Unite the Right Rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, killing one person and injuring others, he was charged with crimes in both federal and state courts. </p>
<p>The state homicide trial went first. Then, <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ohio-man-pleads-guilty-29-federal-hate-crimes-august-2017-car-attack-rally-charlottesville">Fields pleaded guilty</a> to federal hate crime charges after the state conviction and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/15/741756615/virginia-court-sentences-neo-nazi-james-fields-jr-to-life-in-prison">received two life sentences</a> for his crime from both the state and federal charges.</p>
<p>By contrast, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/04/us/dc-area-sniper-fast-facts/index.html">“D.C. Sniper” John Allen Muhammad</a> was finally apprehended at a highway rest stop in Maryland in 2002, after a deadly series of sniper shootings in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, which killed 10 people and injured three. </p>
<p>Maryland police <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/10/01/timeline-dc-sniper-attacks/">arrested Muhammad</a>. Then, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=91093&page=1">federal officials were the first</a> to file charges. But Muhammad was first put on trial and convicted of murder <a href="https://mdcourts.gov/data/opinions/coa/2022/29a21.pdf">in Virginia</a>.</p>
<h2>Trump’s circumstances</h2>
<p>In Trump’s case, his federal charges – which were not unsealed as of June 8 – are likely to carry longer potential sentences than the state offenses. </p>
<p>The felonies he is facing in New York are white-collar crimes and may <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/04/05/will-trump-go-to-prison-counts-against-him-could-result-in-136-year-sentence-but-its-highly-unlikely/">not result in any prison time</a>, legal experts have said.</p>
<p>Of course, much about Trump’s case is unique. Never has a former president faced federal or state prosecution. That fact alone probably makes priority for the federal prosecution more likely. </p>
<p>An active presidential candidate has faced criminal charges in the past, though. </p>
<p>Socialist Party <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fiery-socialist-challenged-nations-role-wwi-180969386/">nominee Eugene Debs</a> was <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/249us211">prosecuted and convicted under the Espionage Act</a> for his opposition to World War I in 1918. He <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-presidential-campaign-of-convict-9653-203027">campaigned from prison</a> for the 1920 election, before <a href="https://www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/election1920.html">losing to Republican Warren G. Harding</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A number of court documents, with the one on top saying prominently 'Search and seizure warrant' in bold type and all capital letters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479038/original/file-20220814-41056-hb12gh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A judge unsealed a search warrant that showed the FBI was investigating former president Donald Trump for possible violation of the Espionage Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXTrumpFBI/101838a380e34baeb9395b5ccc3ae49d/photo?Query=Trump%20warrant&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=201&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
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<p>Federal authorities could assert priority over state officials by taking custody of the defendant. States cannot arrest suspects who are outside the state’s borders, but federal law enforcement officers <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about/faqs">can arrest suspects anywhere</a> in the country. </p>
<p>It is exceedingly unlikely that federal prosecutors would ask a court to detain Trump in jail before trial. Rather, they are likely to allow him to be released on bail <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/04/nyregion/trump-bail-reform.html">as the New York court did</a> in April. But their nationwide jurisdiction gives federal authorities an advantage over states in controlling the defendant, in terms of placing and enforcing bail conditions, for example, regardless of where he resides at the moment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darryl K. Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If a person – in this case, the former president of the United States – is charged by federal and state prosecutors, or prosecutors in different states, at the same time, which case goes first?Darryl K. Brown, Professor of Law, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040952023-04-19T18:28:12Z2023-04-19T18:28:12ZWhy Fox News’ settlement with Dominion Voting Systems is good news for all media outlets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521727/original/file-20230418-3239-g103gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C51%2C4840%2C3185&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dominion Voting Systems CEO John Poulos, third from right, leaves court with members of his legal team after reaching a reported $787.5 million settlement with Fox News.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dominion-voting-systems-ceo-john-poulos-leaves-with-members-news-photo/1483128409?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/ Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s all over but the spinning. </p>
<p>At the eleventh hour, after the jury was sworn in and the lawyers were ready to make their opening statements, the judge presiding over <a href="https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=345820">Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News</a> announced on April 18, 2023, that the “<a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/18/fox-news-settles-dominion-lawsuit">parties have resolved the case</a>.”</p>
<p>Little is known about the reported US$787.5 million settlement, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/business/fox-news-dominion-settlement.html">one of the largest known defamation awards</a> in the country’s history. Fox issued a vaguely worded statement confirming the merits of Dominion’s defamation claims – “We acknowledge the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false” – but was <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/04/18/fox-news-wont-have-to-apologize-for-airing-dominion-lies-in-7875-million-settlement/?sh=756c5989793e">not required to make on-air apologies</a> or corrections. With that, the lawsuit that captured public attention for two years ended. </p>
<p>Dominion’s claims that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/17/media/dominion-fox-news-allegations/index.html">Fox and its on-air pundits had damaged the voting equipment company’s reputation</a> by falsely questioning the integrity of its operations during the 2020 elections were the same essential claims that any libel plaintiff must make for a case to proceed to trial. The issue is not truth, alone, but whether false statements harmed the plaintiff’s reputation, and whether the news organization was at fault for publishing those statements. </p>
<p>Presiding <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/31/dominion-lawsuit-fox-trial-00090034">Judge Eric Davis had already ruled</a> that the many accusations Fox hosts and guests hurled at <a href="https://www.dominionvoting.com">Dominion</a> after the 2020 election – most notably that it switched votes from former President Donald Trump to challenger Joe Biden – were false as a matter of law. It was “CRYSTAL clear,” he wrote. All that remained for a jury to decide was whether the statements were made with actual malice. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A throng of lawyers speak facing a large group of journalists holding notebooks, microphones and cameras. Someone holds a sign that reads, " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521735/original/file-20230418-26-o964v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lawyers representing Dominion Voting Systems talk to reporters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lawyers-representing-dominion-voting-systems-talk-to-news-photo/1483128376?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Actual malice is the legal standard established by the Supreme Court in 1964 in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1963/39">New York Times v. Sullivan</a> that applies to public officials and public figures. In most cases, corporations like Dominion that offer goods or services for sale are also considered public figures, <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/466/485/">as the Supreme Court held in 1984</a> in Bose Corp. v. Consumers Union.</p>
<p>In these cases, corporations must prove that the statements about their businesses were published with knowledge that they are false, or with reckless disregard for whether they were true or not. The high court’s rationale in New York Times v. Sullivan, which involved a police commissioner in Alabama who was unhappy with media coverage of the Civil Rights Movement, was that powerful individuals should not be able to file frivolous suits aimed at silencing the press in order to vindicate their reputations. </p>
<p>As a scholar of media ethics and law, I have followed Dominion’s defamation suit against Fox News closely, because it presented a direct threat to the Sullivan standard, which for nearly 60 years has protected journalists and authors from lawsuits brought by U.S. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-ally-devin-nunes-loses-washington-post-defamation-appeal-2022-04-01/">politicians</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/468562-federal-judge-tosses-joe-arpaios-300m-defamation-lawsuit-against-cnn/">sheriffs</a>, <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/11th-circuit-refuses-to-revive-war-dogs-defamation-case/">international arms dealers</a>, <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca11/21-12030/21-12030-2021-12-10.html">political operatives</a> and many others who would seek to punish and curtail robust reporting about them and their activities. </p>
<h2>The facts were on Dominion’s side</h2>
<p>Dominion had a tremendous advantage on the eve of trial. Pretrial discovery revealed a trail of texts and email messages that documented the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/02/16/fox-news-2020-lies-dominion-suit/">doubts of executives, editors and pundits at Fox</a> about the veracity of the claims of a conspiracy to steal the 2020 elections, of which Dominion was supposedly an integral part. </p>
<p>They showed that, although Fox fact-checkers operating in the network’s own “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/04/03/fox-dominion-jeanine-pirro-brain-room/">brain room” had debunked many of these claims</a> as early as Nov. 20, 2020, Fox hosts continued to invite <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dominion-voting-systems-vs-fox-news-the-case-against-conspiracy-theories/">guests like Trump attorneys Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani</a>, who clung to their theory of a vast conspiracy to steal the presidency from Trump. And it appeared that the motivation for these decisions was <a href="https://theconversation.com/anyone-can-claim-to-be-a-journalist-or-a-news-organization-and-publish-lies-with-almost-total-impunity-202083">to try to hold on to viewers</a> who, once they heard <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2022/11/08/the-man-at-fox-news-who-called-arizona-for-biden-in-2020-says-tonight-my-gut-is-leaning-red/?sh=4bf1a97840f2">Fox call the state of Arizona for Biden</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/surge-in-newsmax-ratings-shook-fox-news-then-faded-59e1e373">temporarily decamped to other conservative news outlets</a> like OANN and Newsmax that reinforced their preferred narrative rather than challenge it.</p>
<p>So things didn’t look good for Fox, and that was before the parade of high-profile witnesses, ranging from Fox Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch to hosts like Maria Bartiromo, Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity, were expected to be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/04/media/tucker-carlson-sean-hannity-fox-news-dominion/index.html">required to take the witness stand</a> and submit to cross-examination. Dominion’s lawyers, no doubt, were about to evoke the legendary <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/remembering-howard-baker-whose-famous-question-embodied-watergate-hearings">Watergate hearings question</a> – “What did [the president] know and when did he know it?” And Fox’s institutional integrity would be on the line, as well as that of its pundits. </p>
<p>After the settlement was made public, Dominion claimed vindication of its reputation, declaring that “truth matters,” and that “<a href="https://whyy.org/articles/dominion-settles-fox-news-defamation-trial-election-2020/">for our democracy to endure another 250 years</a> … we must share a commitment to facts.” </p>
<p>Fox, for its part, grudgingly conceded that it had to “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/dominions-defamation-case-against-fox-poised-trial-after-delay-2023-04-18/">acknowledge the Court’s rulings finding certain claims about Dominion to be false</a>,” but added that the settlement was really a victory of sorts, because it “reflects Fox’s continued commitment to the highest journalistic standards.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women, dressed in suits, some carrying briefcases, all with solemn looks on their faces, cross a city street on a sunny day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521737/original/file-20230418-18-1dcgri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Members of the Fox News legal team leave the Leonard Williams Justice Center after settling a lawsuit with Dominion Voting Systems in Delaware Superior Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-fox-news-legal-team-including-lawyer-dan-news-photo/1483126979?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>I can hear the gales of cynical laughter from many who think Fox has no journalistic standards whatsoever. Those critics must be dismayed that Fox and its employees will not be raked over the coals and otherwise humiliated in the court of public opinion, as well as in the courtroom.</p>
<h2>Disinformation was at the heart of the case</h2>
<p>But those who are disappointed may have been seeking more from this case than a libel suit can deliver. For many, it had become a surrogate for their unhappiness – or even incandescent rage – directed toward Fox for its editorial positions. It was a referendum not only on Fox’s coverage of Dominion, but also on its long-established pattern of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/04/unique-damaging-role-fox-news-plays-american-media/">favoring one political viewpoint</a> over all others, even at the expense of telling the truth. In other words, it was about disinformation and the people who are persuaded by it. </p>
<p>Many people would like to ban disinformation. But who decides what is disinformation? Under U.S. law, we don’t ask government tribunals to decide “the truth.” I have written about how <a href="https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1665&context=uclf">experiences in other countries show</a> that it is dangerous to ask courts, or any instrumentality of government, to do so. </p>
<p>If that sounds improbable, recall that it wasn’t that long ago that Donald Trump, while still a candidate, was calling news media like CNN and The New York Times “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305118776010">fake news</a>.” He wanted to “<a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/02/donald-trump-libel-laws-219866#:%7E:text=%22One%20of%20the%20things%20I,open%20up%20those%20libel%20laws">open up the libel laws</a>” and threatened to shut these outlets down. If the government decides which media sources are “real” or “fake,” a free press – and freedom of expression as we have known it – will cease to exist. As the <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1940-1955/319us624">late Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson wrote</a> in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette in 1943, “If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in matters of politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion.” That means that the law tolerates errors in journalism – which are inevitable – as part of the search for truth. </p>
<p>I hold no brief for Fox. But had the Dominion case gone to the jury, the inevitable appeal by whomever lost would give the Supreme Court the chance to reconsider and possibly eliminate the New York Times v. Sullivan standard that protects all news media of all political stripes. At least two justices, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/us/supreme-court-libel.html">Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, have indicated</a> they are eager to do just that, even though it has been the constitutional standard for nearly 60 years. Given this court’s willingness to overturn precedent, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">as it did with abortion rights</a>, there is no guarantee that another three justices might not join them. </p>
<p>In the end, this lawsuit was about two questions: Did Fox knowingly publish false statements about Dominion that harmed the company’s reputation, and did it do so knowing, or having reason to know, that they were false? It has already vindicated Dominion and exposed Fox’s questionable practices to the public. Anything more will have to wait for another day, which may come sooner than we think. Smartmatic, which builds electronic voting systems, has a pending libel suit against Fox and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/smartmatic-remains-committed-to-fox-news-defamation-case-2023-4">is poised to continue the battle</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane E. Kirtley is a member of the board of the Society of Professional Journalists Foundation. <a href="https://www.spj.org/foundation.asp">https://www.spj.org/foundation.asp</a>
From 1985-1999, she was Executive Director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press.</span></em></p>Despite Fox News’ questionable ethics, its last-minute settlement with Dominion Voting Systems was a win for all media.Jane E. Kirtley, Professor of Media Ethics and Law, University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2037412023-04-17T12:43:03Z2023-04-17T12:43:03ZDefamation was at the heart of the lawsuit settled by Fox News with Dominion – proving libel in a court would have been no small feat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520935/original/file-20230413-20-sbbnce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Election workers in Detroit test their equipment made by Dominion Voting Systems in August 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1242162041/photo/us-vote-election-machines.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=T4CDKTWzYJiLY4tkXMkYIu9nzlRmx3JR9zKjyAo0AJU=">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The aftershocks of the 2020 presidential election continue to reverberate in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/17/trump-research-voter-fraud-claims-debunked">politics and the media</a> with Fox News Network’s April 18, 2023, US$787.5 million settlement with U.S. Dominion Inc. The settlement puts an end to Dominion’s defamation suit against the network.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/13/media/fox-news-dominion-trial-jury/index.html">Ahead of opening arguments</a> that were slated to begin April 18, Fox News agreed to pay Dominion for alleged defamation. The lawsuit rested on whether false claims Fox hosts and their guests made about Dominion’s voting machines after President Joe Biden was elected were defamatory. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1169858006/the-math-behind-dominion-voting-systems-1-6-billion-lawsuit-against-fox-news.">Dominion sued Fox</a> for $1.6 billion. </p>
<p>Fox News hosts said on air that that there were “voting irregularities” with Dominion’s voting machines – while privately saying that <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fox-news-hosts-allegedly-privately-versus-air-false/story?id=97662551">such claims were baseless</a>. </p>
<p>The statements have already been proved false. Delaware Superior Court Judge Eric M. Davis <a href="https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=345820">ruled on March 31, 2023</a>, that it “is CRYSTAL clear that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/31/dominion-lawsuit-fox-trial-00090034">none of the Statements</a> relating to Dominion about the 2020 election are true.”</p>
<p>The question at hand was whether the statements harmed Dominion’s reputation enough to rise to the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/31/1167526374/judge-rules-fox-hosts-claims-about-dominion-were-false-says-trial-can-proceed">level of defamation</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://comm.osu.edu/people/kraft.42">I am a longtime journalist and journalism professor</a> who teaches the realities and challenges of defamation law as it relates to the news industry. Being accused of defamation is among a journalist’s worst nightmares, but it is far easier to throw around as an accusation than it is to actually prove fault.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blonde white woman stands facing an electronic voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520937/original/file-20230413-18-yvvfzg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A voter in Atlanta takes part in midterm elections in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1244620086/photo/midterm-elections-in-us-state-of-georgia.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=dPhcbNrHmc8c2rz3syqzycPN14uLGifdVdOz-DoR0cg=">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Understanding defamation</h2>
<p>Defamation happens when someone publishes or publicly broadcasts falsehoods about a person or a corporation in a way that harms their reputation to the point of damage. When the false statements are written, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/libel">it is legally considered libel</a>. When the falsehoods are spoken or aired on a live TV broadcast, for example, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/slander">it is called slander</a>.</p>
<p>To be considered defamation, information or claims must be presented as fact and disseminated so others read or see it and must identify the person or business and offer the information with a reckless <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defamation">disregard for the truth</a>. </p>
<p>Defamation plaintiffs can be private, ordinary people who must prove the reporting was done with negligence to win their suit. Public people like celebrities or politicians have a higher burden of proof, which is summed up as actual malice, or overt intention to harm a reputation.</p>
<p>The ultimate defense against defamation is truth, but there are others. </p>
<p>Opinion that is <a href="https://www.rcfp.org/journals/news-media-and-law-summer-2011/opinion-defense-remains-str/%5D">not provable fact is protected</a>, for example. </p>
<p>Neutral reportage – a legal term that means <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1002/neutral-reportage-privilege">the media reports fairly, if inaccurately</a>, about public figures – can legally protect journalists. </p>
<p>But Davis rejected both of those arguments <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/03/31/dominion-fox-lawsuit-summary-ruling/">in the federal Dominion case</a>. </p>
<p>Davis determined Fox aired falsehoods when it allowed Trump supporters to claim on air that Dominion rigged voting machines to increase President Joe Biden’s number of votes. He also said that these actions harmed the Dominion’s reputation. </p>
<h2>Proving actual malice</h2>
<p>The primary question for the jury, which had already been seated, would have been whether Fox broadcasters knew the statements were false when they aired them. If they did, it would mean they acted with actual malice, the standard required to prove a case of defamation for a <a href="https://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/proving-fault-actual-malice-and-negligence">public person, entity or figure</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. Supreme Court established actual malice as a legal criterion of defamation in 1964 when L.B. Sullivan, a police commissioner in Alabama, felt his reputation had been harmed by a civil rights ad run in The New York Times that <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/supreme-court-landmarks/new-york-times-v-sullivan-podcast">contained several inaccuracies</a>. Sullivan sued and was awarded $500,000 by a jury. The state Supreme Court affirmed the <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1963/39">decision and the Times appealed</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1963/39">ruled in 1964</a> that proof of defamation required evidence that the advertisement creator had serious doubts about the truth of the statement and published it anyway, with the goal to harm the subject’s reputation. </p>
<p>Simply put, the burden of proof shifted from the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/an-important-date-in-supreme-court-history-for-the-press">accused to the accuser</a>.</p>
<p>And that is a hurdle most cannot overcome when claiming defamation.</p>
<h2>Why proving defamation is so hard</h2>
<p>It is incredibly hard to prove in court that someone set out do harm in publishing facts that are ultimately proved to be untrue.</p>
<p>Most times, falsehoods in a story are the result of insufficient information at the time of reporting. </p>
<p>Sometimes an article’s inaccuracies are the result of bad reporting. Other times the errors are a result of actual negligence. </p>
<p>This happened when Rolling Stone magazine published an article in 2014 <a href="https://www.bustle.com/articles/74322-where-to-read-rolling-stone-uva-article-a-rape-on-campus-now-its-been-deleted">about the gang rape</a> of a student at the University of Virginia. It turned out that many parts of the story were not true and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/business/media/rolling-stone-rape-story-case-guilty.html">not properly vetted</a> by the magazine. </p>
<p>Nicole Eramo, the former associate dean of students at the University of Virginia, sued Rolling Stone, claiming the story false alleged that she knew about and covered up a gang rape at a fraternity on campus. They <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/12/523527227/rolling-stone-settles-defamation-case-with-former-u-va-associate-dean">reached a settlement</a> on the lawsuit in 2017.</p>
<h2>Not meeting the malice standard</h2>
<p>There are also some recent examples of a defamation lawsuit’s not meeting the actual malice standard.</p>
<p>This includes Alaskan politician Sarah Palin, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/business/media/new-york-times.html">sued The New York Times</a> over publication of an editorial in 2017 that erroneously stated her political rhetoric led to a mass shooting. The jury said the information might be inaccurate, but she had not proved actual malice standard.</p>
<p>Long before he was president, Donald Trump had a 2011 libel suit dismissed after a New Jersey appeals court said <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/donald-trump-loses-libel-lawsuit-232923/">there was no proof</a> a book author showed actual malice when he cited three unnamed sources who estimated Trump was a millionaire, not a billionaire. </p>
<p>It is so difficult for public figures to meet the actual malice standard and prove defamation that most defamation defendants spend most of their legal preparation time trying to prove they are not actually in the public eye. Their reputations, according to the court, are not as fragile as that of a private person. </p>
<p>Private people <a href="https://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/proving-fault-actual-malice-and-negligence">must prove only negligence</a> to be successful in a defamation lawsuit. That means that someone did not seriously try to consider whether a statement was true or not before publishing it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520938/original/file-20230413-16-a8t6uc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters gather outside the Fox News headquarters in New York City ahead of the Dominion trial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1247874462/photo/a-billboard-truck-seen-outside-fox-news-hq-members-of-the.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ntartb3dfI1g1-LfKcRYfnp37TM6EA82AW2Tg0nkSow=">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Defamation cases that went ahead</h2>
<p>Some public figures, however, have prevailed in proving defamation. </p>
<p>American actress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/03/27/us/carol-burnett-given-1.6-million-in-suit-against-national-enquirer.html">Carol Burnett won the first-ever</a> defamation suit against the National Inquirer when a jury decided a 1976 gossip column describing her as intoxicated in a restaurant encounter with former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger was known to be false when it was published.</p>
<p>Most recently, Cardi B won a defamation lawsuit against a celebrity news blogger who posted videos falsely stating the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/entertainment-music-arts-and-entertainment-lawsuits-celebrity-87ecf677d5bd7261d57dfd770ec139a9">Grammy-winning rapper used cocaine</a>, had herpes and took part in prostitution.</p>
<h2>The case of Dominion</h2>
<p>Fox’s payout to Dominion – though only half of what Dominion sued for – reportedly shows that the voting machines company <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/18/why-fox-news-had-to-settle-the-dominion-suit-00092708">put together a strong case</a> that Fox acted with actual malice.</p>
<p>But Fox pundits have helped the plaintiff’s case by acknowledging they knew information was false before they aired it and leaving a copious trail of comments such as, “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/31/1167526374/judge-rules-fox-hosts-claims-about-dominion-were-false-says-trial-can-proceed">this dominion stuff is total bs</a>.”</p>
<p>Fox’s position was that despite knowing claims made by guests about Dominion were false, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/business/fox-news-dominion-trial.html">the claims were newsworthy</a>. </p>
<p>Does this qualify as actual malice or simply bad journalism?</p>
<p>The settlement seems to imply actual malice – and this could send shivers through the political media landscape for years to come. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/defamation-is-at-the-heart-of-dominions-lawsuit-against-fox-news-but-proving-it-is-no-small-feat-203741">article originally published on April 17, 2023</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Kraft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s far easier to throw around accusations of damage to one’s reputation than it is to actually prove it in court. A journalism scholar explains the criteria that must be met.Nicole Kraft, Associate Professor of Clinical Communication, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2020832023-04-11T12:05:29Z2023-04-11T12:05:29ZAnyone can claim to be a journalist or a news organization, and publish lies with almost total impunity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520033/original/file-20230410-26-4zi81a.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3090%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There are no standards for what it takes to be a journalist.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-seen-holding-a-sign-outside-fox-news-hq-members-news-photo/1247874350?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Headlines in early March 2023 implied Fox News mogul Rupert Murdoch had <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/28/1159819849/fox-news-dominion-voting-rupert-murdoch-2020-election-fraud">made a damning confession</a>. He had affirmed that some of his most important journalists were reporting that the 2020 presidential election was a fraud – even though they knew they were propagating a lie. </p>
<p>It was an admission during pretrial testimony in a libel lawsuit filed against Fox by a voting machine company that says it was defamed by the lie. For journalism practitioners and devotees, the admission should signal the end of the Fox News empire. </p>
<p>Nope. It didn’t.</p>
<p>Such a disgraceful demise would seem inevitable when journalists – professionally trained truth gatherers, employed by a news organization, which is an institution that exists to provide truthful information – choose not to do so. </p>
<p>Nope.</p>
<p>That’s because a business that calls itself a news organization actually does not have to be one - but it does have to be a business. <a href="https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/lawevents/4/">Businesses exist primarily to make a profit</a> and doing actual news isn’t essential. Adam Serwer, reporting for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/fox-news-dominion-voting-lawsuit-2020-election-conspiracy/673111/">The Atlantic</a>, wrote “sources at Fox told me to think of it not as a network per se, but as a profit machine.” </p>
<p>News businesses or profit machines can hire anybody who falls off a turnip truck and label them journalists because the job has <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/reporters-correspondents-and-broadcast-news-analysts.htm">no standardized requirements</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/reporters-correspondents-and-broadcast-news-analysts.htm">lists “None” as requirements</a> for work experience and on-the-job training for journalists but indicates a bachelor’s degree is typical. Accordingly, the Fox News business people could choose to spread election lies and insist, as court documents indicate, that it made good business sense to do so because much of their audience did not want the actual truth about that topic.</p>
<p>These are some of the troubling takeaways from Murdoch’s defense of his news business against <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20527880-dominion-v-fox-news-complaint">a libel lawsuit filed by Dominion Voting</a> Systems, the company implicated by Fox’s election fraud allegations. Fox essentially admits to publishing false information about Dominion, but argues it is nonetheless protected from liability. It is a defense grounded in the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-1/">First Amendment</a>, which protects press freedom so robustly that it also protects the irresponsible use of that freedom. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men at a sports game, one younger and one older." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520038/original/file-20230410-3948-1z66xz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lachlan Murdoch, left, and his father, Rupert Murdoch, lead the Fox corporation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rupert-murdoch-and-his-son-lachlan-murdoch-attend-the-news-photo/1027568416?adppopup=true">Jean Catuffe/GC Images</a></span>
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<h2>There’s lying … and there’s defamation</h2>
<p>Murdoch’s admission was contained in <a href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/dominion-fox-news/54e33f20f7fb6e8d/full.pdf">court documents</a> and was revealed in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/media/fox-dominion-2020-election.html">a New York Times story</a> published on March 7, 2023. The story was about the US$1.6 billion libel lawsuit <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20527880-dominion-v-fox-news-complaint">filed against Fox News</a> by Dominion, the company Fox journalists repeatedly - and falsely - accused of rigging the 2020 presidential election to make sure Donald Trump lost. </p>
<p>Internal Fox communications, reported by the New York Times, revealed that network journalists and their news executive bosses knew the 2020 election was not fraudulent, yet continued to allow lies about the election - told by hosts and their guests - to be spread to the public. </p>
<p>Dominion claimed Fox’s audience recoiled when its journalists truthfully reported that Trump had lost the election. Dominion’s attorneys asserted that Fox feared the audience would switch their viewing allegiance to upstart conservative news organizations Newsmax and One America News.</p>
<p>In a March 31, 2023, ruling, the judge hearing the case cited examples of Fox’s internal communications that demonstrated how journalism values were supplanted by the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23736885-dominion-v-fox-summary-judgment">language and values of business</a>. Among them was this quote attributed to a Fox Corporation board member: “If ratings go down, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/27/business/media/dominion-fox-news.html">revenue goes down</a>.” The judge also referred to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/business/fox-dominion-defamation-case.html">Dominion’s claim</a> that Fox chose to publish the (false) statements to win back viewers. </p>
<p>Court documents show Dominion’s attorneys asked Murdoch: “What should the consequences be when Fox News executives knowingly allow lies to be broadcast?” Murdoch replied: “They should be reprimanded, maybe got rid of.”</p>
<p>That response aligns with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/editorial-standards/ethical-journalism.html#introductionAndPurpose">principles</a> widely touted by professional news organizations and established in the <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/The+Ethical+Journalist%3A+Making+Responsible+Decisions+in+the+Digital+Age%2C+3rd+Edition-p-9781119777489">ethical practice</a> of journalism. Although journalism scholars and practitioners vary in their definitions of what a <a href="https://www.cjr.org/special_report/disrupting-journalism-how-platforms-have-upended-the-news-intro.php">news organization is</a> and <a href="https://archives.cjr.org/behind_the_news/whos_a_journalist_zzzzzzzzzzzz.php">who can claim to be a journalist</a>, there is firm agreement that reporting facts, or at least making a good faith effort to do so, is an indispensable mandate for both. </p>
<p>Yet Murdoch has not indicated an intention to discipline en masse Fox News employees who violated that ethical principle. Nor is he required to. </p>
<p>Even the Society of Professional Journalists, the nation’s <a href="https://spj.org/">foremost advocate</a> for ethical journalism, <a href="https://www.spj.org/ethics-papers-code.asp">rejects punishments</a> for those who violate its principles. Its ethics code says in part: “The code is entirely voluntary. … It has no enforcement provisions or penalties for violations, and SPJ strongly discourages anyone from attempting to use it that way.” The organization concedes that news outlets can discipline their own journalists. Because journalists and their employers may be considered to be one entity, any disciplinary action is voluntary self-discipline. Neither journalists nor the news organizations they personify have to be truthful unless they want to. </p>
<p>Lying in the press is unethical but does not necessarily strip liars of the protections <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/567/709/">provided by the First Amendment</a>. There is an exception to this: the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defamation">defamatory lie</a>, one that injures a person or organization’s reputation. That is what got Fox News sued.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A machine with the words 'Dominion Voting' on it, and a woman walking by in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520045/original/file-20230410-20-t0e1uv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The lawsuit filed by the maker of this voting machine, Dominion Voting Systems, charges that Fox News disseminated lies claiming that Dominion rigged the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NotRealNews/4ef225a704cd42c383e7e24f7418b3a4/photo?Query=dominion%20lawsuit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=38&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/Ben Gray</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Assumptions fall</h2>
<p>Murdoch’s surprising statements were revealed in the lawsuit because his attorneys sought what’s called a “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/summary_judgment">summary judgment</a>” by the judge to decide the case without a trial, in order to avoid the prospect of facing a jury. That move makes sense given that some <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Law-of-Public-Communication/Lee-Stewart-Peters/p/book/9781032193120?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI7bmIi_-L_gIV3v_jBx0A-QzVEAAYASAAEgKm0fD_BwE">law scholars</a> have found that juries rule against media defendants three times out of four. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_56">By law</a>, summary judgment is available only when the parties agree on the material facts of the case. </p>
<p>That meant Fox and Murdoch had to admit to Dominion’s most damning allegations, including confessing to broadcasting untrue statements and engaging in other unethical journalism practices. Even with those admissions, the <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/889/actual-malice">First Amendment’s protection</a> could still give Fox a chance to win the lawsuit - particularly if a jury did not hear the case. </p>
<p>Without reaching trial or a verdict, the Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News lawsuit has already produced some unsettling results. It has challenged journalism disciples’ assumption that news organizations exist to <a href="https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/journalism-essentials/what-is-journalism/purpose-journalism/">provide the public with truthful information</a> about the most important issues in their civic lives. It has shaken journalism’s faithful who assume that <a href="https://niemanreports.org/articles/good-journalism-can-be-good-business/">good journalism is never bad</a> for the business of journalism.</p>
<p>Neither assumption is necessarily valid at Fox or anywhere. Anyone can claim to be a journalist, irrespective of their actual function. Any business can claim to be a news organization. Functioning irresponsibly in either role is largely protected by the First Amendment and is therefore optional.</p>
<p>Ethics imposed by independent state bar associations and state medical boards have made professional attorneys and physicians accountable by law as a means of ensuring responsible behavior in their roles, which are considered essential to society. Journalism ethics, which are news organization ethics, are wholly voluntary and can be set aside if they compromise profits. </p>
<p>But if the ethics violations are defamatory, a successful libel lawsuit can impose accountability with a financial cost - money damages.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John C. Watson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A news organization doesn’t have to publish or broadcast the facts or the truth. And there are no standardized requirements to be a journalist.John C. Watson, Associate Professor of Journalism, American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1923242022-10-13T12:21:58Z2022-10-13T12:21:58ZJan. 6 Committee’s fact-finding and bipartisanship will lead to an impact in coming decades, if not tomorrow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489460/original/file-20221012-11-ym4nec.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5773%2C3855&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A tweet from former President Donald Trump is shown on a screen at the House Jan. 6 committee hearing on June 9, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tweet-from-former-president-donald-trump-is-shown-on-a-news-photo/1241210230">Jabin Botsford/POOL/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The committee formed to investigate the role of former President Donald Trump and key aides in last year’s Capitol insurrection faced high stakes as it held its 10th and possibly last public hearing on Oct. 13, 2022.</p>
<p>Since the committee debuted its evidence in prime time on June 9, 2022, Vice-Chair Liz Cheney of Wyoming, one of two Republicans on the committee, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/us/politics/harriet-hageman-liz-cheney-wyoming.html">lost her House seat in a primary election</a>. The other GOP committee member, Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/29/rep-adam-kinzinger-wont-seek-reelection-next-year-517599">announced last year that he isn’t running for reelection</a>. </p>
<p>Should Republicans regain the House majority in November’s midterm elections, presumptive Speaker Kevin McCarthy could disband, or reconstitute, the committee. Some GOP House members have indicated that they <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/15/politics/house-republicans-investigation-plans-trump/index.html">might use their newfound control over investigations to probe the committee members themselves</a> over how they have conducted their work. </p>
<p>Thus, the committee faces a ticking clock as it wraps up its hearings and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/26/jan6-committee-hearing-sept28-trump">finalizes its report</a>, which may recommend criminal charges against Trump and crucial election security reforms. However, it is possible that there will be no immediate legal, policy or political ramifications of the committee’s work. </p>
<p>But as <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/claire-leavitt-1351188">a scholar of oversight</a> who in 2019 spent a year working on the Democratic majority staff of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, I believe the committee’s work will have historic impact. That effect, though, may take years to be seen and felt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman dressed in a black jacket and white shirt wipes tears from her face while giving testimony at a table in a large room filled with people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489406/original/file-20221012-22-pvivst.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wandrea ‘Shaye’ Moss, a former Georgia election worker, becomes emotional while testifying as her mother, Ruby Freeman, watches during a hearing held by the House January 6th committee on June 21, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/wandrea-arshaye-shaye-moss-former-georgia-election-worker-news-photo/1241441997?phrase=january%206%20committee%20wandrea&adppopup=true">Michael Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Accountability and effectiveness</h2>
<p>Although 919 people have been <a href="https://www.insider.com/all-the-us-capitol-pro-trump-riot-arrests-charges-names-2021-1">charged with crimes in relation to the Capitol insurrection thus far</a>, there’s still a lot the committee doesn’t know – or hasn’t revealed – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/29/trump-january-6-timeline/">about Trump’s direct involvement in the insurrection</a>. </p>
<p>And no matter how compelling a case the committee’s final report might make, the Department of Justice <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/white-collar-and-criminal-law/doj-is-likely-to-wait-past-election-to-reveal-any-trump-charges">may simply choose not to indict</a> the former president. </p>
<p>In terms of policy changes that could emerge from the committee’s efforts, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/electoral-count-act-reform-bill-passes-house-of-representatives-today-2022-09-21/">the House passed the Presidential Election Reform Act</a> in September 2022, which among other provisions clarifies the vice president’s role in the certification of Electoral College votes. The Senate has taken bipartisan action on their version of the bill, but its fate is still uncertain. </p>
<h2>Courting the public</h2>
<p>Political scientist Paul Light argues that the most “high impact” investigations over the course of American history achieved their success <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/LIghtPaperDec2013.pdf">“through a mix of fact-finding, bipartisanship, and strong leadership</a>.” The Jan. 6th Committee took an approach that emphasized facts in presenting its case to the American people. </p>
<p>It dampened charges of partisanship leveled by Trump and his GOP supporters by granting Republicans Cheney and Kinzinger prominent roles. <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons%E2%80%94and-limits%E2%80%94-jan-6-committee">Cheney chaired the committee’s final prime-time hearing this past summer</a>. And the committee showcased extensive testimony from officials whose Republican bona fides are unimpeachable, such as former <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpwCApZh6KQ">Attorney General William Barr</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/cassidy-hutchinson-jan-6-hearing-testimony-illustrated/">former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06QUOzmMyec">Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger</a>. </p>
<p>The committee also maximized its visibility by <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/06/jan-6-committee-adviser-james-goldston">hiring former ABC News President James Goldston</a> to produce the hearings, and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2022/07/09/the-january-6-hearings-are-the-best-television-series-of-the-summer/">approximately 55 million people watched at least part of the hearings this past summer</a>. </p>
<p>The committee even dominated the cultural conversation by highlighting meme-able moments, including Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri running from the rioters <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/22/josh-hawley-running-video-capitol/">after raising his fist in solidarity earlier that morning</a>. </p>
<p>There is also <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/jan-6-hearings-trump-support-falls-00046662">some, though not overwhelming, evidence</a> that the hearings diminished support for Trump both in the polls and among donors. However, it’s worth recalling that public opinion as the Watergate scandal was unfolding did not reflect the extent to which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/05/15/how-america-viewed-the-watergate-scandal-as-it-was-unfolding/">President Nixon’s legacy would suffer as a result</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing glasses and in a dark suit, sitting in front of an American flag along with a woman in a white jacket and wearing glasses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489412/original/file-20221012-24-1dn0nj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The committee’s leaders were Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, left, chairman, and Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, vice chairwoman.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/representative-and-committee-chairman-bennie-thompson-and-news-photo/1241482478?phrase=january%206%20committee%20thompson%20cheney&adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Taking time to unfold</h2>
<p>Assessing the full impact of the investigation requires patience – probably decades’ worth. </p>
<p>I believe the House Jan. 6 committee’s legacy will depend on how its in-depth rendering of the events surrounding the 2020 election and the ensuing insurrection is presented, repeated and understood by successive generations of Americans. </p>
<p>Congress had originally planned to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pelosi-mccarthy-jan6-committee/2021/07/21/21722d44-ea41-11eb-84a2-d93bc0b50294_story.html">establish an independent body</a> to investigate the Capitol attacks, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/26/999930573/why-a-9-11-commission-is-popular-but-may-not-happen-for-the-jan-6-capitol-attack">modeled on the 9/11 Commission</a> – an idea killed by Senate Republicans last year. So the House committee’s work constitutes, at least thus far, the authoritative public record on the insurrection, with no credible competitor. </p>
<p>This record will serve as a permanent, invaluable cache of information for future investigators, both inside and outside of Congress. It will also inform and inspire the scholars, journalists, novelists and <a href="https://deadline.com/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-movie-billy-ray-adam-mckay-1234916344/">filmmakers</a> who are already shaping the public’s collective understanding of a watershed moment in the history of American democracy. </p>
<p>The Jan. 6th committee’s <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/jan-6-report-book-publishers-new-yorker">unpublished report is in hot demand from publishers</a>. It is <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/jan-6-report-is-1-bestseller-in-america-before-release-exclusive-melber-foreword-on-coup-conspiracy-149050437948">already a bestseller in presales</a>, despite the fact that it will be freely available as part of the public domain.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.historians.org/research-and-publications/perspectives-on-history/october-2020/a-new-view-of-event-history-collective-consciousness-as-a-historical-force">process by which events become part of the public consciousness</a> is slow and often imperceptible, but it is a legacy arguably as important as the discrete electoral or policy outcomes that emerge – or not – in the short term. </p>
<p>As one of my students at Smith College recently put it: “Being sixteen years old and watching people attack the Capitol - I never thought I’d see anything like it. The way my grandparents talk about JFK’s assassination or the Kent State massacre is the way I might talk about this to my kids someday.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Leavitt has received funding from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) and the Levin Center for Oversight and Democracy.</span></em></p>A lot of facts have come forward through the efforts of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol. What will its efforts mean to the US?Claire Leavitt, Assistant professor of government, Smith CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898592022-09-19T12:22:46Z2022-09-19T12:22:46ZConspiracy theories are dangerous even if very few people believe them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484680/original/file-20220914-18-utbv87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=247%2C7%2C4745%2C1863&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lies don't have to spread far to cause problems.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/people-garthered-around-one-outstanding-person-royalty-free-image/1365164005">numismarty/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is an open question among pundits and researchers: Do <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/shadowland/">more Americans</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/717850">believe in conspiracy theories</a> now <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/18/buffalo-shooting-great-replacement-qanon">than ever before</a>?</p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Q13nvXwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholar of conspiracy theories</a> and their believers, I am concerned that focusing on how many Americans believe conspiracy theories can distract from their dangers.</p>
<p>Even if most people dismiss conspiracy theories or accept them only in <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691178707/not-born-yesterday">some limited sense</a>, leaving very <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/717850">small numbers of true believers</a>, the high visibility of these false ideas can still make them dangerous.</p>
<h2>Association without belief</h2>
<p>Philosophers often suppose people can <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2253760">explain their actions</a> in terms of what they want to do or get, and what they <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/belief/">believe</a>. However, many of people’s actions are guided not by explicit beliefs but rather by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/jun/19/oliver-burkeman-aliefs-beliefs">gut feelings</a>. These feelings aren’t set in stone. They can be influenced by experience. </p>
<p>This principle is taken to heart by advertisers who aim to influence behavior, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/10/thinking-vs-feeling-the-psychology-of-advertising/247466/">not by changing how people think but how they feel</a>. Manipulating feelings in this way can be accomplished by subtly associating a product with desirable outcomes like status and sex.</p>
<p>This can also take a negative form, as in political attack ads that aim to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3647684">associate an opponent</a> with threatening imagery and descriptions. Forging similar mental associations is one way in which conspiracy theories, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-021-03379-y">like other misinformation</a>, might have consequences even without being believed.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dDTBnsqxZ3k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">One of the earliest political attack ads, placed by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, never even mentions its target’s name.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Some examples</h2>
<p>Consider conspiracy theories alleging that the 2020 U.S. presidential election was rigged. Some people no doubt <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/05/america-biden-election-2020-poll-victory">believe that</a>. But even if people don’t buy the whole lie, they may still believe that something about the 2020 election doesn’t <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/trump-voters-big-lie-stolen-election/629572/">“feel right,” “seem right” or “smell right.”</a> They might, therefore, be more inclined to support efforts politicians claim will protect election integrity – even if such efforts result in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/17/florida-republicans-black-voters-justice-department">targeted voter suppression</a>. </p>
<p>Next, consider anti-vaccination conspiracy theories. Anti-vaccination content, whether about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.287.24.3245">vaccines in general</a> or specifically about the <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-misinformation-facebook">COVID-19 vaccines</a>, often takes the form of pictures and videos purporting to illustrate disturbing side effects of vaccines. Material of this sort can proliferate rapidly across social media and, by relying on disturbing imagery rather than explicit false claims, can often <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7ek3d/anti-vaxxers-are-learning-how-to-game-tiktoks-algorithm-and-theyre-going-viral">escape moderation</a>. </p>
<p>Exposure to anti-vaccination information might give readers or viewers a vague feeling of unease, and consequent hesitancy concerning vaccines, even without producing explicit anti-vaccination beliefs. In fact, previous studies have shown that people who tend to rely on their intuition and who have negative emotions toward vaccines <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08870446.2019.1673894">are more likely to refuse vaccination</a>. While that research involved other vaccines, it’s likely that similar factors help explain why <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html">many Americans have gone without full COVID-19 vaccination, and most have gone without boosters</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd storms the U.S. Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/484683/original/file-20220914-11733-spyrev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whether they were true believers or not, Capitol rioters were influenced by conspiracy theories.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SocialMediaConservativeVoices/1714e596e04b4367956e142598025532/photo">AP Photo/John Minchillo</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Pretense and coordination</h2>
<p>Scholars often suggest that many people merely pretend to believe in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192895325.003.0001">conspiracy theories</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfx042">other forms of misinformation</a> as a way of expressing their political loyalties. But even pretense can be costly. Consider an analogy.</p>
<p>When a child declares that “the floor is lava,” few if any believe the declaration. But that child, and others, begin to act as if the declaration were true. Those who do may clamber onto furniture, and repeat the declaration to others who enter the space. Some children play just for fun, some play to show off their climbing and jumping skills, and some play to appease the child who initiated the game.</p>
<p>Some kids quickly tire of the game and wish to stop playing, but like or respect the child who initiated the game, and don’t want to upset that person by stopping. As the game progresses, some take it too seriously. Furniture is damaged, and some get injured while attempting to leap from one raised surface to another. The lava is fake, but real things get broken. </p>
<p>More seriously, when Donald Trump claimed that the 2020 presidential election was “<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-longstanding-history-calling-elections-rigged-doesnt-results/story?id=74126926">rigged</a>,” some officials and ordinary citizens acted accordingly. Whether out of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/02/972564176/antifa-didnt-storm-the-capitol-just-ask-the-rioters">sincere belief</a>, partisanship, loyalty to Trump or <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/true-the-vote-election-fraud/">financial opportunism</a>, many Americans behaved as if the 2020 election was unfairly decided.</p>
<p>Some people acting as if the election conspiracy theory were true assembled in Washington, D.C., some stormed the Capitol building and, behind the scenes, some developed a scheme to submit <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/fake-electors-explained-trump-jan-6.html">fake slates of electors</a> supporting Trump’s reelection despite his loss at the ballot box. The people involved in these activities could count on the support of others who endorsed the rigged election claim, even if these endorsements were largely insincere. </p>
<h2>The price of pretending</h2>
<p>The costs of acting as if the 2020 election were rigged are no doubt greater than those for acting as if the floor is lava. The costs of acting as if the 2020 election were rigged led to <a href="https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/04-8-2022/jan-6-costs/">millions of dollars</a> worth of damage to the Capitol building, led to <a href="https://time.com/6133336/jan-6-capitol-riot-arrests-sentences/">hundreds of arrests</a> for Capitol rioters, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/us/politics/jan-6-capitol-deaths.html">led to multiple deaths</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/06/trump-election-attacks-collapse-faith-democracy">imperiled American democracy</a>.</p>
<p>Given the severe risks involved, it’s worth wondering why people who did not sincerely believe the election was unfair would risk pretending. This question highlights the unique danger of conspiracy theories endorsed by those in power: There can be much to gain from pretending to believe them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Raymond Harris receives funding from The Ministry of Culture and Science of North Rhine Westphalia. </span></em></p>Worrying about how many people believe false ideas misses the real danger – that people are influenced by them whether they believe them or not.Keith Raymond Harris, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Philosophy, Ruhr University BochumLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856552022-06-30T12:21:44Z2022-06-30T12:21:44ZJan. 6 hearings highlight problems with certification of presidential elections and potential ways to fix them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471222/original/file-20220627-7096-3ry15.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7868%2C5206&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen presiding over the counting of the votes on Jan. 6, 2021, during a hearing of the House January 6 committee in Washington, D.C., on June 16, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-vice-president-mike-pence-is-seen-on-screen-news-photo/1241349126?adppopup=true">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lack of clarity in how Congress counts presidential electoral votes <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/2022/06/09/hearings-to-focus-on-jan-6-but-also-what-congress-can-do-about-it/">was highlighted in recent public hearings</a> held by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Lawmakers and witnesses in those hearings also focused on how ambiguities in existing election laws <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/16/us/jan-6-hearings">were exploited in 2020</a> in an attempt to overturn the results of the presidential election.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/717989/election-deniers-victories-jan-6-committee-build-pressure-on-eca-reformers/?unlock=J7ACLHRCTGGRDQJL">legislators are</a> interested in reforming the federal law that governs that process, the Electoral Count Act. </p>
<p>Reforming the act, which sets the procedures for how votes for president are counted in the Electoral College, means identifying what it’s supposed to do, the areas that need reform and any other problems with it.</p>
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<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PSynZNoAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar of election law</a>, I recognize that presidential elections in the United States are complicated. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/24/how-electoral-college-works/">Voters do not directly elect the president</a>. After Election Day, and based on the popular vote, each state chooses presidential electors who formally meet and cast votes for president that are then relayed to Congress. <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-invented-the-electoral-college-147083">There are 538 electoral votes</a>, and after Congress counts them and verifies that one candidate has received a majority – at least 270 – the winner of the presidential election is declared. </p>
<p>In theory, a rule about how to count votes seems easy enough. But it’s hardly been easy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Then-Vice President Biden handing over a sheet of paper to an aide, against a backdrop of the American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441582/original/file-20220119-27-125iixv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then-Vice President Joe Biden, on Jan. 6, 2017, presided over Congress’ certification of Donald Trump’s presidential victory despite the objections of a handful of House Democrats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ElectoralCollege/63555c3255e74eef8d2592685772c4ae/photo?Query=electoral%20college%20objection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=178&currentItemNo=173">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Abusing the act</h2>
<p>During <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/08/1071239044/congress-may-change-this-arcane-law-to-avoid-another-jan-6">Reconstruction</a>, the period after the Civil War, Congress faced contentious questions over whether Southern states appropriately appointed presidential electors. At other times, two sets of competing electors for different candidates were sent to Congress. </p>
<p>The Electoral Count Act was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/08/1071239044/congress-may-change-this-arcane-law-to-avoid-another-jan-6">enacted in 1887</a> to streamline rules after the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/us/politics/trump-electoral-college.html">disputed presidential election of 1876</a>. </p>
<p>But in recent years, the act has revealed some weaknesses.</p>
<p>The act allows <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15">members of Congress</a> to object to counting votes from a state. They can do that if one member of the House and one Senator write an objection. The Electoral Count Act does not list what kind of objections are proper, leaving it to Congress to decide if objections are appropriate or not. If this kind of dispute arises, Congress can debate what to do with the electoral votes. </p>
<p>The objection mechanism was used just once in the first 100 years of the act. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/07/politics/congress-ratifies-bush-victory-after-challenge.html">in 2005</a>, members of Congress objected to counting Ohio’s electoral votes cast for George W. Bush, alleging the results were inaccurate because of voter suppression and faulty voting machines. Congress spent two hours debating whether to count the votes. In <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/09/hawley-cruz-2024-capitol-riots-456671">2021</a>, members of Congress again objected to counting Arizona’s and Pennsylvania’s electoral votes for Joe Biden, alleging a variety of claims, including fraud, which forced Congress to spend more time in debate.</p>
<p>These objections have undermined confidence in the outcome of presidential elections. Members of Congress <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/02/cruz-johnson-9-other-gop-senators-say-they-will-not-vote-certify-electors-unless-audit-is-conducted/">publicly aired baseless claims that the election results were in doubt</a>. <a href="https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election">There was no serious reason</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d">for Congress to doubt</a> the outcome of the 2020 election. </p>
<p>One reform might simply increase the threshold required to file an objection, from one member of each chamber to, say, one-fifth of the members. That would speed up counting and reduce opportunities for members of Congress to take grievances to the floor.</p>
<h2>Power that does not exist</h2>
<p>Another problem that has emerged relates to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/us/politics/pence-trump-jan-6.html">vice president’s role</a> in counting electoral votes.</p>
<p>An impetus for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol was a mistaken belief that Vice President Mike Pence could ignore the Electoral Count Act and <a href="https://electionlawblog.org/?p=124703">unilaterally refuse</a> to count electoral votes from some states or indefinitely delay counting.</p>
<p><a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL32717.pdf">The Constitution mandates</a> that the President of the Senate – typically the Vice President – open the certificates of electoral votes from each state. In addition, under the current Electoral Count Act, the President of the Senate presides over the meeting, calls for objections, and generally moves the process along. </p>
<p>Pence did so, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/us/politics/pence-trump-election.html">despite intense pressure from President Donald Trump to reject the Electoral College votes</a> that would formally make Democratic candidate Joe Biden president. </p>
<p>But there are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/08/1071239044/congress-may-change-this-arcane-law-to-avoid-another-jan-6">worries among some members of Congress that another vice president might be tempted to assert power that does not exist</a>. A vice president might create chaos by claiming that some votes should not count, or telling Congress what it can or cannot do, setting off a fierce debate in the middle of the count. </p>
<p>So another reform to the act might make it clear that the vice president has no role over the meeting except ministerial acts like opening the envelopes from presidential electors. That clarity reduces opportunities for mischief in the future.</p>
<p>These two concerns reflect the narrow role of Congress in counting votes and the mechanics of that meeting. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young men in suits carry mahogany boxes through a hall of the U.S. Capitol." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441587/original/file-20220119-13-1qpcmpw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On Jan. 6, 1961, mahogany boxes containing the Electoral College votes in the presidential campaign between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon are carried by pages to the House chamber. Kennedy won.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-mahogany-boxes-containing-the-electoral-college-votes-news-photo/515549748?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Improvement - or more complexity?</h2>
<p>There are more ambitious changes to federal law that Congress might examine, but these also raise thorny problems.</p>
<p>For instance, some Republican state legislators in 2020 – encouraged by Trump – suggested they could <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/press/house/54LEG/2R/201204STATEMENT.pdf">appoint their own electors well after Election Day</a> if they were dissatisfied with the results certified by the state’s election officials. </p>
<p>Some cited a provision in federal law that if the state “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3714294">failed to make a choice</a>” for choosing presidential electors on Election Day, the state legislature could appoint them later. But this provision was designed for states that required majority winners in presidential elections and might hold a runoff after Election Day if no candidate received a majority.</p>
<p>Congress could repeal this “failed to make a choice” provision and insist that Election Day is Election Day, with no opportunity under the statute to second-guess the results. And a new law could specify the limited circumstances in which a state could respond to a disaster or catastrophe that would require additional time for the casting of votes.</p>
<p>Other revisions might provide for expedited review of election litigation in the federal courts. Federal courts have been <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4005473">increasingly active</a> in reviewing election-related cases ever since the Supreme Court’s contentious decision in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/13/us/bush-prevails-single-vote-justices-end-recount-blocking-gore-after-5-week.html">Bush v. Gore</a> affecting Florida’s recount in 2000, which resulted in Bush winning the election.</p>
<p><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Who_runs_elections_in_the_United_States%3F_(2020)">Elections are run by states</a>, and states already have extensive procedures in the canvass, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-recount-thresholds.aspx">recount</a> and audit of their votes. Federal judicial review should be a matter of last resort, for those situations in which the ordinary state process for resolving election disputes hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>One benefit of Electoral Count Act reform is that it lends itself toward bipartisanship. No one knows what future presidential elections will bring. Republicans and Democrats in Congress have both expressed disapproval of some states’ presidential election outcomes over the last 25 years, and it’s not clear who will be disappointed next.</p>
<p>Congress cannot prevent all mischief, but it can reduce the possibility of mischief in the future. Lawmakers can address some of the easier questions, like the threshold for objections and the role of the vice president. Congress can also have serious conversations about some of the more controversial questions. </p>
<p>It has been 135 years since Congress considered how to count electoral votes, and it seems unlikely that, once it makes reforms to the Electoral Count Act, it would revisit these rules in the near future. Whatever statute it enacts now must be drafted to endure the test of time.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-electoral-count-act-of-1887-is-showing-its-age-heres-how-to-help-congress-certify-a-presidential-election-with-more-certainty-175222">article originally published</a> on January 20, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Derek T. Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The attempt by Donald Trump’s supporters to reverse the 2020 presidential election results shows the need to update the nation’s landmark law for counting presidential votes.Derek T. Muller, Professor of Law, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1734862022-01-03T14:53:11Z2022-01-03T14:53:11ZAmerican support for conspiracy theories and armed rebellion isn’t new – we just didn’t believe it before the Capitol insurrection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438509/original/file-20211220-48250-1ig7z8z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C4%2C2982%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rioters are tear-gassed as they storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-use-tear-gas-around-capitol-building-where-pro-trump-news-photo/1230464979?adppopup=true">Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Americans had to confront a new reality when an angry mob attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021: Some of their fellow citizens were in the grips of a false reality and had resorted to violence to support it.</p>
<p>Conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election and the strange alternate universe of QAnon helped <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/qanon-emerges-recurring-theme-criminal-cases-tied-us/story?id=75347445">drive the attack</a>, which has prompted concerns about further <a href="https://theconversation.com/once-you-engage-in-political-violence-it-becomes-easier-to-do-it-again-an-expert-on-political-violence-reflects-on-events-at-the-capitol-152801">domestic upheaval</a>. </p>
<p>In the year since, a flurry of studies and analyses have tried to gauge the American appetite for conspiracy theories and the likelihood of more violence – even civil war. <a href="https://journalism.uconn.edu/amanda-j-crawford/">As someone</a> who has studied the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-in-the-us-became-more-personal-more-cruel-and-more-mainstream-after-the-sandy-hook-shootings-172015">conspiracy theories</a> that followed the December 2012 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2012/12/us/sandy-hook-timeline/">mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School</a>, I keep revisiting a <a href="https://portal.fdu.edu/newspubs/publicmind/2013/guncontrol/final.pdf">May 2013 poll</a> about gun control that found widespread doubts about that shooting and shockingly high support for armed rebellion.</p>
<p>Almost eight years before the Capitol was attacked by partisans bent on reversing the results of an election, nearly one-third of Americans surveyed – and a whopping 44% of Republicans – said in a 2013 <a href="https://portal.fdu.edu/newspubs/publicmind/2013/guncontrol/final.pdf">PublicMind poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University</a> that armed rebellion might soon be necessary in the U.S. to protect liberties. </p>
<p>The finding was so disconcerting that the poll was <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/05/rebellion-poll/315697/">dismissed</a> by some prominent political observers as too unbelievable to be true. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of an Atlantic story with the headline, " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438539/original/file-20211220-48250-1vh4sjw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philip Bump, in The Atlantic on May 1, 2013, called the poll ‘a doozy of a survey.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/05/rebellion-poll/315697/">Screenshot, The Atlantic.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Motivated reasoning</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Smoke fills a hall inside the Capitol where Trump supporters are standing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438731/original/file-20211221-120394-18iyzrp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke fills the walkway outside the Senate Chamber on January 6, 2021, as supporters of President Donald Trump are confronted by U.S. Capitol Police.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolBreachSelfRepresentation/251fe831a92f47a7ba75d37aba2d6fc5/photo?Query=subjects.code:6eb0fe9b2f1647f392dd57bd018e36fa&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=3629&currentItemNo=98">AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I recently interviewed the political psychologist who designed the poll, as well as a journalist who blasted its conclusions and now writes about the fallout from the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fdu.edu/profiles/daniel_cassino/">Daniel Cassino</a>, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of the FDU poll, said the 2013 survey sought to gauge the impact of motivated reasoning around gun policy. <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/motivated-reasoning">Motivated reasoning</a> is the emotional bias that can influence judgment or cause someone to dismiss facts that don’t align with their beliefs. </p>
<p>“If reality doesn’t fit what you want it to be, you have to change what you believe – or you have to change reality,” Cassino explained.</p>
<p>That’s where conspiracy theories come in. If you oppose firearm restrictions, then the slaughter of 20 first graders and six adults at an elementary school with an AR-15 is a real problem for you. Cassino explained: “It’s easier for people who believe strongly in gun rights to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-in-the-us-became-more-personal-more-cruel-and-more-mainstream-after-the-sandy-hook-shootings-172015">say it didn’t happen</a> rather than change their minds” about guns. </p>
<p>One in four people surveyed in the 2013 poll said they believed the truth about the school shooting was being hidden to support a political agenda. Many others were unsure. People who opposed new gun control measures were more likely to have doubts about the shooting. </p>
<p>Cassino said the question about armed rebellion explored a belief that is normally attributed only to members of militias and extremist groups. The finding didn’t necessarily indicate that regular people would pick up arms, but it did show this notion was becoming part of the Republican partisan identity, Cassino said. </p>
<p>“That is scary because once something becomes part of that belief structure, it becomes self-fulfilling,” he said. The notion of a possible armed rebellion has since spread through the Republican Party and has been espoused by party <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/trump-speech-capitol.html">leaders</a> and elected <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rep-madison-cawthorn-promotes-false-election-claims-warns-bloodshed-if-n1278114">officials</a>.</p>
<p>“The actual armed insurrection that happened in January [2021] showed us this is a real strain in American politics that has gotten stronger and is not going away,” Cassino said. </p>
<h2>Motivated coverage</h2>
<p>When the poll came out, some commentators used it to ridicule Republicans. Comedian Bill Maher, for example, <a href="https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/331349950703210497?lang=en">tweeted about the study</a>: “So … 44% of Rep.s think an ARMED REBELLION might be necessary in the next few years. So if u say most Rep.s r f–king nuts u’d be off by 7%.” </p>
<p>Others dismissed the findings entirely. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/05/rebellion-poll/315697/">The Atlantic slammed</a> the “doozy” of a poll as “highly questionable.” </p>
<p>“The poll is at-best semi-scientific and should probably not be taken seriously,” Philip Bump wrote. “It certainly should not be written about by other media outlets.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"331349950703210497"}"></div></p>
<p>Today, Bump is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/philip-bump/">national correspondent</a> at the Washington Post who specializes in the numbers behind politics and has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/13/jan-6-itself-trumps-allies-understood-that-he-was-catalyst/">written about</a> the Jan. 6 insurrection.</p>
<p>In a recent phone call, he told me he thinks his reaction to the 2013 poll was “over the top.” He still thinks Cassino’s numbers seem high compared to some recent findings, but Bump said he would not dismiss the poll today like he did back then. </p>
<p>“It obviously takes on a much different light given the last eight years,” he told me. </p>
<h2>A second Civil War</h2>
<p>After the 2013 poll, Cassino said he was inundated with phone calls from people accusing him of being part of a conspiracy to take away guns. Many of the calls were made to his home number and were threatening. The calls, along with the negative media coverage, dissuaded him from asking about armed rebellion in future polls, he told me. Now, he wishes he had collected that data. </p>
<p>Just after the 2021 insurrection, a <a href="https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/997-the-zogby-poll-will-the-us-have-another-civil-war">Zogby Poll</a> found nearly half of Americans – 46% – thought another civil war was likely. The American Enterprise Institute <a href="https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/after-the-ballots-are-counted-conspiracies-political-violence-and-american-exceptionalism/">found</a> that 4 in 10 Republicans thought <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966498544/a-scary-survey-finding-4-in-10-republicans-say-political-violence-may-be-necessa">political violence</a> may be necessary. A more recent survey published in November 2021 by the nonprofit <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/competing-visions-of-america-an-evolving-identity-or-a-culture-under-attack/">Public Religion Research Institute</a> found that nearly one-third of Republicans – 30% – agreed with the statement “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” </p>
<p>Even the pragmatic folks at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/09/16/is-the-us-headed-for-another-civil-war/">recently cautioned</a> that the possibility of a second civil war should not be dismissed: “We should not assume it could not happen and ignore the ominous signs that conflict is spiraling out of control,” Brookings fellows William G. Gale and Darrell M. West warned. </p>
<p>Opposition to vaccines in the face of a global pandemic and obstinate belief in Trump’s debunked claims about the 2020 presidential election have shown journalists and the public just how much strongly held beliefs can shape the perception of reality, Cassino said. </p>
<p>“People’s beliefs about reality are infinitely malleable,” he said. “I wish it wasn’t the case, because it is really bad for society. I wish I had been wrong.”</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda J. Crawford was a 2020-21 fellow with the University of Connecticut Humanities Institute and is a national board member of the Journalism & Women Symposium.</span></em></p>Almost eight years before the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol attack, nearly one-third of Americans surveyed – and 44% of Republicans – said armed rebellion might soon be necessary in the US to protect liberties.Amanda J. Crawford, Assistant Professor of Journalism, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1692342021-12-01T13:31:11Z2021-12-01T13:31:11ZIndependent commissions can ditch partisanship and make redistricting fairer to voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432657/original/file-20211118-17-4yozh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C40%2C6669%2C4426&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People wait in line to get their ballot to vote in the 2020 general election in Detroit, Michigan. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wait-in-line-to-get-their-ballot-to-vote-in-the-2020-news-photo/1229448175?adppopup=true">Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>States across the U.S. are drawing new electoral districts for the next decade in a process called redistricting. In some states, districts are drawn by the state legislature; in others, by an independent redistricting commission.</p>
<p>By federal law, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10639">congressional districts must be of equal population</a> and must protect minority representation under the <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=100">Voting Rights Act</a> by guaranteeing that minority voters have an equal opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. </p>
<p>In many states, elections must also be “fair” to political parties or candidates as dictated by <a href="http://legislature.mi.gov/doc.aspx?mcl-Article-IV-6">explicit provisions</a> on partisan fairness, or implicitly under “<a href="https://www.ncleg.gov/Laws/Constitution/Article1">free and equal</a>” clauses in state law. </p>
<p><a href="https://sites.google.com/msu.edu/eguia">We are</a> <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/christian-cox">two scholars</a> who study redistricting and electoral competition. To understand whether different redistricting institutions deliver fairer or less fair results, we compared the very different paths taken in three competitive states of similar size: North Carolina, Michigan and Virginia.</p>
<p>In North Carolina, as in most states, the state Legislature draws the electoral district maps. </p>
<p>This was the case in Michigan and Virginia as well, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_Proposal_2,_Independent_Redistricting_Commission_Initiative_(2018)">until Michiganders in 2018</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Question_1,_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)">and Virginians in 2020</a> voted to amend their constitutions to assign the task of drawing electoral districts to redistricting commissions. </p>
<p>Advocates for those commissions hoped that by being separate from the legislatures, commissions will deliver fairer maps of new voting districts.</p>
<p>We found that while it is possible for commissions to develop fairer results, it is not a given – and it depends at least in part on how the commission is structured.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Donald Trump at a rally in front of a lot of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432658/original/file-20211118-27-1qgg75v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New electoral maps will help determine who wins elections over the next decade. Here, Donald Trump campaigns for Ohio congressional candidate Max Miller on June 26, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-endorses-ohio-congressional-news-photo/1233676275?adppopup=true">Stephen Zenner/AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s a fair map, anyway?</h2>
<p>Over the years, various courts and legislatures have sought to define fairness in various ways beyond just equal population across districts. </p>
<p><a href="https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card?planId=rec1jFkj1lne3m1RS">Mathematical analyses</a> are often key to evaluating a <a href="https://planscore.campaignlegal.org/north_carolina/#!2020-plan-ushouse-eg">proposed map’s fairness</a>. In 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court issued what is probably the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=3494281422341862323&q=League+of+Women+Voters+v.+Commonwealth,+178+A.3d+737&hl=en&as_sdt=80000006">clearest legal standard of mathematical fairness</a>. It requires first identifying a hypothetical electoral map or maps that are politically neutral – and therefore fair and nonpartisan – and then comparing any redistricting plans to such fair maps.</p>
<p>One way to find a <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/elj.2020.0691">hypothetical neutral map</a> is to go back to the origins of American democracy and to look at the original 1776 Pennsylvania Constitution, in which each county, plus the city of Philadelphia, was its own electoral district. Each of these districts received seats in proportion to its population at the time. County lines have long been fixed and were drawn without consideration to today’s partisan interests.</p>
<p>Using this historical precedent as a hypothetical neutral benchmark, one can evaluate the fairness of any proposed redistricting map in two steps: </p>
<p>First, look at precinct-level voting results from a recent election. Add up the votes for each party by county, and find out which party won the most votes in each county. Then, for each party, add up the total population in all the counties in which the party won the most votes. The share of this population over the total population in the state is the neutral benchmark share of seats that the party would have won with these election results, if we had counted votes and had declared winners by county. </p>
<p>Second, look at the same recent election’s precinct-level results, but add up the votes for each party according to the proposed new districts to see how many of these districts the party would win. </p>
<p>Compare the share of new districts a party would win with the neutral benchmark share if we counted by county. The closer the proposed map’s results are to the by-county method, the fairer the proposed map. We use this method to evaluate each state’s map proposals.</p>
<h2>North Carolina’s partisan process</h2>
<p>In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential election in 25 of North Carolina’s 100 counties, which contain just over 50% of the state’s population. Donald Trump won the other 75 counties, home to just under half of North Carolinians. </p>
<p>So a neutral congressional redistricting map would deliver just over half of the seats to Democrats, and just under half to Republicans. North Carolina has 14 seats, so with adjustments for rounding, each party should win seven seats under a fair map.</p>
<p>The Republican-dominated state Legislature’s official map was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/04/politics/north-carolina-congressional-map-redistricting/index.html">approved by lawmakers on Nov. 4</a>. Looking at the 2020 presidential election results according to that map would have Biden winning in four districts and Republicans winning in 10.</p>
<p>Conducting the same analysis using the results of other recent elections, including the 2016 presidential, gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, also finds that a neutral map is split evenly, seven and seven – and North Carolina’s proposed map delivers a 10-4 Republican majority.</p>
<h2>Virginia’s partisan deadlock</h2>
<p>The Virginia Redistricting Commission is bipartisan and political: Democratic and Republican state legislative leaders appoint elected officials for half of the commission seats, and they nominate citizens for the other half, so the commission has eight Democrats and eight Republicans, with half of each pool being professional politicians.</p>
<p>This commission split along partisan lines, and because of disagreements, it was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/10/25/redistricting-virginia-lessons-partisan/">unable to produce any maps</a>. In accordance with the state Constitution, the Virginia Supreme Court <a href="https://www.vacourts.gov/courts/scv/districting/redistricting_information.pdf">took over</a> and will appoint a special official, or several of them, to draw new electoral districts that will, we can hope, be fair.</p>
<h2>In Michigan, true independence delivers fairness</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/">The Independent Citizen Redistricting Commission</a> in Michigan is composed of 13 volunteer regular citizens – not politicians – including four who identify as Republican, four as Democratic and five who do not identify with either of the two parties.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2021/10/11/michigan-redistricting-committee-whats-next/6069719001/">The commission released four draft plans back in October</a> and held public hearings to receive comments. The commission then revised its work and on Nov. 15 released three proposed maps, named Apple V2, Birch V2 and Chestnut after trees native to the state. <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/0,10083,7-418-106525---,00.html">Following a further round of public hearings</a>, the commission will hold a final vote to adopt one of these maps as the official map for congressional elections in Michigan for the next decade.</p>
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<p>Our analysis finds that, in general, all three of these maps are fair. Based on recent past election results in Michigan’s 83 counties, we find that Democratic candidates would win the most votes in 11 counties with 55% of the population, and Republicans would win the most in 72 counties with the remaining 45% of the population. Dividing the state’s 13 congressional seats proportionally would deliver 6.6 seats to Democrats and 6.4 to Republicans.</p>
<p>Of course, actual seats don’t come in fractions. In whole numbers, a neutral real outcome would deliver six Democrats and six Republicans, with the 13th seat a little more likely to be won by a Democrat than by a Republican.</p>
<p>Under Apple V2 and Birch V2, 6.6 seats would be won by Democrats, and under Chestnut, 6.8 would. </p>
<p>In sharp contrast to the partisan maps adopted by legislators in North Carolina, and the failure of Virginia’s politicized commission, we find that in Michigan, an independent commission of citizens <a href="https://ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/files/redistricting/redistrictingreportv2.pdf">has drawn</a> fair congressional maps.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon X. Eguia received funding from the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) at Michigan State University. In 2018, he was a volunteer with Voters Not Politicians, the organization that led the ballot initiative to amend the Michigan Constitution to create the Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As states devise new electoral district maps, some have adopted independent commissions to ensure fairness in that process. Do they deliver?Jon X. Eguia, Professor of Economics, Michigan State UniversityChristian Cox, Postdoctoral Associate, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1647592021-07-20T12:14:55Z2021-07-20T12:14:55ZElection polls in 2020 produced ‘error of unusual magnitude,’ expert panel finds, without pinpointing cause<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411996/original/file-20210719-21-1yf4gz7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C20%2C6679%2C4446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A voter exits a polling location on Election Day, Nov. 3, 2020 in Fort Worth, Texas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-exits-a-polling-location-on-november-03-2020-in-fort-news-photo/1283708803?adppopup=true">Tom Pennington/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than eight months after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-embarrassing-failure-for-election-pollsters-149499">acute polling embarrassment</a> in the 2020 U.S. elections – that produced the sharpest discrepancy between the polls and popular vote outcome since 1980 – survey experts examining what went wrong say they have no definitive answers about why polls erred as markedly as they did. </p>
<p>That inconclusive finding <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx">reported by a polling industry task force</a> will do little to assuage <a href="https://www.nccivitas.org/civitas-review/skeptical-polls-media-used/">popular skepticism</a> about election polls which, in one way or another, have misfired in all U.S. presidential races but one since 1996. </p>
<p>And if the source of the 2020 polling error cannot be pinpointed, then addressing and correcting it obviously becomes daunting.</p>
<p>Moreover, as I discussed in my book “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup</a>,” polling failures in presidential elections <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/president-landon-and-the-1936-literary-digest-poll/E360C38884D77AA8D71555E7AB6B822C">since 1936</a> rarely have been repetitive. Just as no two elections are alike, no two polling failures are quite the same. </p>
<p>Over the years, pollsters have anticipated tight presidential elections when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslides have occurred</a>. They have signaled the wrong winner in closer elections. The estimates of venerable pollsters have been <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx">singularly in error</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/01/20/report-acknowledges-inaccuracies-in-2004-exit-polls/d895ea8c-b2ad-46ea-af6d-cc5acb011dd7/">Wayward exit polls</a> have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-nov-04-na-pollsters4-story.html">thrown Election Day into confusion</a> by identifying the losing candidate as the likely winner. Off-target state polls have confounded expected national outcomes, which essentially was the story in 2016.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One voter standing at a white voting both that sits on blue metal legs with casters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401432/original/file-20210518-17-1kcx7zc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A voter walks to a booth to fill out their ballot at Public School 160 on Nov. 3, 2020, in Brooklyn, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-walks-to-a-booth-to-fill-out-their-ballot-at-public-news-photo/1229441647?adppopup=true">David Dee Delgado/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Trump support underestimated</h2>
<p>In 2020, election polls pointed to Democrat Joe Biden’s winning the presidency. But collectively, the polls underestimated backing for then-President Donald Trump no matter how close to the election the survey was conducted and <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx">regardless of the methods</a> pollsters chose. Surveys in races for U.S. senator and governor were beset by similar flaws.</p>
<p>Those were among the findings described in a report made available on July 19, 2021, that noted that voter-preference surveys in 2020 “featured polling error of an unusual magnitude” and that the discrepancy in the presidential race was the greatest in 40 years.</p>
<p>The experts, who comprised a <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/AAPOR-Convenes-Task-Force-to-Formally-Examine-Poll.aspx">task force</a> of the <a href="https://www.aapor.org/">American Association for Public Opinion Research</a>, a survey industry organization, speculated that some Republicans may have been less willing than Democrats to be interviewed by pollsters – a hypothesis that could explain some of the polling error. But the task force report said “identifying conclusively” why polls erred “appears to be impossible with the available data.”</p>
<p>The task force, which included 19 members from the polling industry, the news media and academia, said it reviewed data from more than 2,800 polls and found that surveys in the 2020 presidential race overstated Biden’s popular vote advantage by 3.9 percentage points. </p>
<p>This marked the fourth presidential election in the past five in which the national polls, at least to some extent, exaggerated support for Democratic candidates.</p>
<h2>Masking dramatic miscalls</h2>
<p>Averaging the polling errors, as the task force did in conducting its months-long analysis, is broadly revealing about the extent of those errors. But it also has the effect of masking several dramatic miscalls in late-campaign polls conducted in 2020 by, or for, leading news organizations. </p>
<p>The final <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/28/rel15.pdf">CNN poll</a> had Biden ahead by 12 points. Surveys for The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">Wall Street Journal-NBC News</a> and by the <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf">Economist-YouGov</a> had Biden winning by 10 percentage points as the campaign wound down. A few polls, such as <a href="https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out">Emerson College’s survey</a>, came close in estimating the outcome.</p>
<p>Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points.</p>
<p>The report said the task force rejected several prospective causes of polling error in 2020 – including those that likely distorted survey results in key states in 2016 when Trump unexpectedly won an Electoral College victory. Those factors included undecided voters swinging to Trump late in the campaign and a failure by some pollsters to adjust survey results to account for varying levels of education. </p>
<p>White voters without college degrees were understood to have voted heavily for Trump in 2016, but those voters were underrepresented in some polls in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump won narrowly and surprisingly.</p>
<p>The task force also rejected as a factor in 2020 any errors pollsters made in projecting the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/07/why-the-likely-voter-is-the-holy-grail-of-polling/">likely makeup</a> of the electorate in terms of age, race, ethnicity and other factors – an estimate common to preelection surveys. </p>
<p>The task force reported finding “no evidence that polling error was caused by the underrepresentation or overrepresentation of particular demographics” in the preelection surveys.</p>
<p>Additionally, it is unclear whether Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-polls.html">sharp criticism of preelection polls</a> in 2020 dissuaded his supporters from participating in surveys.</p>
<p>“So it’s possible that these may be short-term phenomena that will abate when Trump is not on the ballot,” <a href="https://twitter.com/danielmerkle?lang=en">Daniel Merkle</a>, the then-president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM7AlsJ87qg">said in a speech</a> in May. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 106,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>“On the other hand,” Merkle said, “it could be a broader issue of conservatives becoming less likely to respond to polls in general because of a decline in social trust, or for some other reasons. It will take further evaluation to understand this nonresponse issue and to adjust for it.</p>
<p>"This may not be an easy task.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screenshot of a Wall Street Journal story on Nov. 1, 2020, reporting a 10-point lead for Joe Biden in the final days of the 2020 campaign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401433/original/file-20210518-19-60frel.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Like many news outlets, the WSJ overestimated Biden’s lead in the 2020 campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-trails-joe-biden-by-10-points-nationally-in-final-days-of-election-11604239200">The Wall Street Journal</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overblown characterizations</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, several media critics declared that polling could be “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/we-still-dont-know-much-about-this-election--except-that-the-media-and-pollsters-blew-it-again/2020/11/04/40c0d416-1e4a-11eb-b532-05c751cd5dc2_story.html">irrevocably broken</a>” and faced “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/">serious existential questions</a>.” </p>
<p>Such disquieting assertions seem overblown; <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/political-polling-trust-history.html">polls are not going to melt away</a>. After all, election polling represents a slice of a multibillion-dollar industry that includes consumer and product surveys of all types.</p>
<p>And if election polling survived the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-nov-01-mn-38174-story.html">debacle of 1948</a> – when President Harry S. Truman <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-1021-poll-mistakes-20181017-story.html">defied predictions of pollsters</a> and pundits to win reelection – then it surely will live on after the embarrassment of uncertain origin of 2020.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/survey-experts-have-yet-to-figure-out-what-caused-the-most-significant-polling-error-in-40-years-in-trump-biden-race-160967">an article</a> originally published on May 20, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1555312021-03-16T16:27:50Z2021-03-16T16:27:50ZDonald Trump: social media ban shows corporate responsibility can win out over profit<p>Following the January riot at the US Capitol in Washington, tech giants moved rapidly to “de-platform” Donald Trump, in a move that could well have hurt more than any impeachment could have. Social media was a key tool for the former US president who would use it to unceremoniously <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2018/0313/947109-donald-trump/">fire personnel</a>, settle scores – even threaten war, as he famously did in 2017 in response to North Korean nuclear weapons tests when he tweeted that the US was “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/world/asia/trump-north-korea-locked-and-loaded.html">locked and loaded</a>”.</p>
<p>All the signs are that he wants to maintain his hold over large sections of the Republican Party, but he’ll struggle without the help of Big Tech. And there’s no sign yet that the social media giants are planning to roll back on their bans. Despite what a drawcard the former president undoubtedly is, platforms such as Twitter and Facebook have clearly come to the conclusion that his brand of incendiary rhetoric is simply too dangerous – for the country and for their brands.</p>
<p>Within two days of the Capitol riots, Twitter released a <a href="https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html">detailed statement</a> to explain its ban: Trump had breached the company’s <a href="https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/glorification-of-violence">glorification of violence</a> policy in two specific tweets sent after the riots. One, in which Trump informed his followers that he wouldn’t be attending Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, “may also serve as encouragement to those potentially considering violent acts that the Inauguration would be a "safe” target, as he will not be attending", it said.</p>
<p>Other tech giants responded in a similar way by disabling platforms associated with Trump. Facebook suspended Trump’s profile <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-facebook-capitol-7772583f-1d1a-480a-adbd-36c22710b203.html">indefinitely</a> pending the outcome of a <a href="https://www.axios.com/review-of-trump-ban-marks-major-turning-point-for-facebook-4a18e219-d471-4e77-ae5e-5f55a01ac2a1.html">review</a> by its new oversight board. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://oversightboard.com/news/175638774325447-announcing-the-oversight-board-s-next-cases/">five-member panel</a> has begun its review of Trump’s suspension. This is likely to be the board’s most significant review since it commenced work in October 2020. That’s partly due to Trump’s profile – but mostly because its decision (which will be binding on Facebook) will have implications for how the platform responds to political speech going forward. Its decision will be published <a href="https://oversightboard.com/decision/">here</a>.</p>
<p>Google, which also owns YouTube, suspended Trump’s YouTube channel – initially for seven days “<a href="https://twitter.com/YouTubeInsider/status/1349205689395245056">minimum</a>”, but the suspension was subsequently made “indefinite” due to “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/26/youtube-trump-ban-suspension">concerns about the ongoing potential for violence</a>”.</p>
<p>Big Tech is notoriously slow to crack down on incendiary contributors – perhaps because it’s in their financial interest to maintain the status quo. Certainly, the fact that Twitter’s <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0111/1188989-twitter-shares-slump-after-trump-suspension-decision/">share price slumped</a> after Trump’s removal suggests that he and others like him are valuable assets for these platforms and that it’s in their interests to hang on to these assets, even if that means hosting contributors that fray societal cohesion, threaten democracy and ultimately lead to the type of violence that engulfed the Capitol.</p>
<h2>Don’t blame the shareholders</h2>
<p>Corporations regularly become embroiled in controversial situations, but it’s not just hosting divisive characters on your social media platform that gives rise to controversy. There are plenty of examples of enterprises that make the most of tax loopholes or exploit “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/18/whats-wrong-with-the-way-we-work">gig workers</a>”. You’ll often hear them blaming the “profit-maximising shareholders” and claiming that they are obliged to take these tough decisions to maximise shareholder wealth. </p>
<p>This is simply not true. In fact, most corporate law frameworks around the world allow management to decide whose interests they’ll prioritise in making decisions. They could prioritise employees’ interests, those of the environment and society at large or they could prioritise shareholders’ interests. The point is that they don’t have to prioritise the latter.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Billboard with the thumbs-up icon at Facebook HQ in Menlo Park, California." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389842/original/file-20210316-15-bbm89i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It was thumbs down for Donald Trump after the Capitol riots in January.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">achinthamb via Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is certainly the case for Big Tech. All of the tech firms referred to above – <a href="https://investor.twitterinc.com/contact/faq/default.aspx">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_downloads/governance_documents/FB_CertificateOfIncorporation.pdf">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://abc.xyz/investor/other/certificate-of-incorporation/">Google</a> – are incorporated in the US state of Delaware. The significance of Delaware is that its courts have recognised that management have discretion to pursue interests other than shareholder wealth maximisation.</p>
<p>So, if these tech firms decide to reinstate the accounts of Trump and his acolytes having realised that his removal is hurting their bottom line, don’t believe them if they say, “The shareholders made us do it.” From a corporate law perspective, the power rests with the chief executives.</p>
<p>It’s up to these businesses whether they host Trump and others like him because he attracts the <a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0111/1188989-twitter-shares-slump-after-trump-suspension-decision/">eyeballs</a> and thus the money – just as it’s up to them whether they remove incendiary contributors in the interests of social harmony.</p>
<p>You could reasonably argue “de-platforming” incendiary or divisive voices has a chilling effect on free speech (regardless of what it does for a social media platform’s bottom line). But, perhaps more important is that by taking steps to detoxify the worst content, social media companies are finally recognising their potential impact on democracy – and the responsibility that comes with it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael James Boland receives funding from the Irish Research Council.</span></em></p>When social media platforms banned Donald Trump they acknowledged that sometimes social good is more important than shareholder profits.Michael James Boland, PhD Researcher, IRC Government of Ireland Scholar, University College CorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1508202021-02-26T13:27:19Z2021-02-26T13:27:19ZA less Trumpy version of Trumpism might be the future of the Republican Party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385951/original/file-20210223-13-8mn2wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2968%2C2047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is Sen. Marco Rubio, espousing a polished populism, the future of the GOP?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-marco-rubio-speaks-before-the-arrival-of-u-s-president-news-photo/1283437043?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, but his populist ideas may continue to animate the Republican Party.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/one-nation-two-realities-9780190677176?cc=us&lang=en&">scholars of American beliefs and elections</a>, we can envision a less Trumpy version of Trumpism holding sway over the party in coming years. We call it “polished populism.”</p>
<p>Populism is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002716216662639">folk-politics</a> based on the premise that ordinary citizens are wiser and more virtuous than supposedly corrupt and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/future-populism-2020s/604393/">self-serving elites</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/10/we-the-people-the-battle-to-define-populism">Populist rhetoric</a> is often expressed in cruder, coarser language than ordinary political speech – less like a politician on a stage and <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-most-populist-lines-from-trumps-speech-20170120-htmlstory.html">more like a guy in a bar</a>. </p>
<p>Trump, a prime practitioner of populist rhetoric, took this to an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZRXESV3R74">extreme</a> with the shorthand of Twitter and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/insider/Trump-twitter-insults-list.html">insults</a> of the locker room.</p>
<p>Polished populists take a different approach, arguing for the <a href="https://www.amacad.org/news/populism-and-future-american-politics">same policies</a> that Trump did – <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">limiting immigration</a>, redistributing wealth toward the <a href="https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/populism-puzzle">working class</a> rather than just the poor, opposing the woke policies of <a href="http://yris.yira.org/comments/2666">social justice movements</a>, promoting “America First” foreign and <a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf">trade policies</a> – but without his overtly antagonistic language. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/bulwark-never-trump-republicans-biden/617025/">Some Republicans</a> are now <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/05/the-never-trumpers-next-move/609064/">arguing for a rejection of populism and a return to traditional conservatism</a>. Those <a href="https://www.nhbr.com/traditional-republican-values/">long-standing GOP priorities</a> include limited government, strong national defense of American interests abroad, religious values and, perhaps most importantly, ordinary political personalities.</p>
<p>For two reasons – the GOP’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/">narrow electoral defeat in 2020</a> and the <a href="https://www.axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html">changing demographics of the Republican Party</a> – we believe that populist policies, if not rhetoric, will continue to be a dominant theme of the Republican Party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Trump at a massive rally just before the election." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385952/original/file-20210223-14-196zrx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump smiles after speaking during an election rally on Nov. 3, 2020, in Grand Rapids, Mich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-smiles-after-speaking-during-a-rally-news-photo/1229431380?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism versus traditional conservatism</h2>
<p>The contemporary <a href="https://www.wpr.org/how-reagan-helped-usher-new-conservatism-american-politics">conservatism associated with Ronald Reagan</a> in the 1980s and <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020430.html">George W. Bush in the 2000s</a> has several facets and factions, but it can be summed up in the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">phrase</a>, “You keep what you earn, it’s a dangerous world, and God is good.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Citizens-Guide-to-American-Ideology-Conservatism-and-Liberalism-in-Contemporary/Marietta/p/book/9780415899000">economic, national defense and social conservatives</a> of previous decades tended to agree that human nature is untrustworthy and society is fragile, so the U.S. needs to defend against external enemies and internal decline. </p>
<p>Populist conservatism accepts those views but adds something different: the interests and perceptions of “ordinary” people against “elites.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">So populism</a> rejects the notion of a natural aristocracy of wealth and education, replacing it with the idea that people it considers elites, including career politicians, bureaucrats, journalists and academics, have been promoting their own interests at the expense of regular folk.</p>
<h2>The identity divide</h2>
<p>The recent rise of populism in America has been driven in part by a clear economic reality: <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality">The expansion of wealth over the last 40 years</a> has gone almost entirely to the upper reaches of society. At the same time, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/">the middle has stagnated or declined economically</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-erupts-when-people-feel-disconnected-and-disrespected-151423">populist interpretation</a> is that elites benefited from the globalization and technological advancements they encouraged, while the advantages of those trends bypassed ordinary working people. Calls for trade protections and national borders appeal to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-4446.12319">Americans who feel left behind</a>.</p>
<p>Populism also has a <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-political-divide-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-populists-v-cosmopolitans-59876">cultural aspect</a>: rejection of the perceived <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022103116305509">condescension</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/education-prejudice.html">smugness</a> of the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-highly-educated-elites-are-stuck-in-a-nightmare-of-their-own-making/2020/11/13/bcde3c98-25d7-11eb-a688-5298ad5d580a_story.html">highly educated elite</a>.”</p>
<p>In that sense, populism is driven by identity (who someone believes they are like, and perhaps more importantly, who they are not like). For populists, the like-minded are ordinary folk – middle income, middle-brow educations at public high schools and state universities, often middle-of-the-country – and the dissimilar are the products of expensive educations and urban lifestyles.</p>
<p>While traditional conservatism <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/opinion/politics/never-trump-republican-party.html?">has not vanished from the GOP</a>, populist perceptions dominate the new <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-rapidly-becoming-blue-collar-party-here-s-what-means-n1258468">working-class foundations</a> of the party. And those reflect the <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/527863-the-diploma-divide-in-american-politics">emerging divide in education</a>. </p>
<p>The base of the Republican Party has shifted from more wealthy and educated Americans to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/">voters without college degrees</a>. In the 1990s, whites who did not attend college tended to back Democrat Bill Clinton, but in 2016 they <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">supported Republican Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton</a> by 39 percentage points. In 2020, it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html">roughly the same</a> for Trump over Biden. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385953/original/file-20210223-22-zlzwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2002, President George W. Bush spoke about the ideals represented in his ‘compassionate conservatism’ to representatives from local community groups in Cleveland, Ohio.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-george-w-bush-delivers-a-speech-to-about-3-000-news-photo/51684553?adppopup=true">Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 2020 outcome and the GOP future</h2>
<p>We believe the Republican Party will be slow to move away from this new identity.</p>
<p>Even after a pandemic, a recession, an impeachment, four years of anti-immigration sentiment and the Black Lives Matter protests, Trump still received <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-popular-vote-record-barack-obama-us-presidential-election-donald-trump/">more votes than any presidential candidate in history not named Joe Biden</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/politics/biden-popular-vote-margin-7-million/index.html">Biden’s overall victory was by a margin of 7 million votes</a>. But his victory in the Electoral College relied on a total of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845">45,000 votes in three states</a>. This was similar to Trump’s narrow 2016 Electoral College margin of 77,000 votes, also in three states. A strong Republican candidate, a foreign policy problem for the incumbent Democrat or a small piece of luck could shift the presidency back to the other party.</p>
<p>Support for Republicans even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-increases-share-black-hispanic-vote-1544698">grew somewhat among traditionally Democratic African American and Hispanic voters</a>, despite the GOP’s anti-Black Lives Matter and anti-immigrant rhetoric. </p>
<p>Clearly, Trumpism was <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/">not repudiated by voters in the way that Democrats had hoped</a>. It is entirely possible that if the pandemic had not occurred – which was a major source of the decline in his support – Donald Trump <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-19-led-to-donald-trumps-defeat-150110">would still be in the White House</a>. </p>
<p>The GOP could conclude that its loss was only due to an outside event and not a fundamental rejection of policy. That would give the party little incentive to change course, aside from changing the face on the poster.</p>
<p>Over the next four years we believe the GOP will solidify the transition to a populist base, though not without resistance from traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Republican victory in a future presidential election would likely require an alliance between traditional and populist conservatives, with both groups turning out to vote. The question is which one will lead the coalition. </p>
<p>The competition for the 2024 Republican nomination will likely also be a contest between these two party bases and ideologies, with the emerging winner defining the post-Trump GOP.</p>
<h2>The 2024 standard bearers</h2>
<p>The Republican contenders for the 2024 nomination and the new leadership of the GOP include a broad range of populists versus traditional conservatives. </p>
<p>Perhaps a leading indicator of the move toward polished populism is the shift in the rhetoric employed by <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio">Marco Rubio</a>. </p>
<p>The senator from Florida was once a traditional conservative, but has shifted toward populism after his trouncing by Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Recently he argued that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters%20https:/thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">the future of the party is based on a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition</a>,” defined as “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/525585-rubio-gop-must-rebrand-as-party-of-multiethnic-multiracial-working-class-voters">normal, everyday people who don’t want to live in a city where there is no police department, where people rampage through the streets every time they are upset about something</a>.”</p>
<p>The opposing trend toward rejecting Trumpist populism is exemplified by the shift in the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2021/magazine-nikki-haleys-choice/">arguments made</a> by <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nikki-haley-americans-woke-left-biden-president">Nikki Haley</a>. Haley, the U.N. ambassador under the Trump administration and former South Carolina governor, has <a href="https://6abc.com/nikki-haley-trump-interview-politico-us-capitol-riots/10333025/">rejected Trump’s leadership</a>, now arguing that “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538573-haley-breaks-with-trump-we-shouldnt-have-followed-him">we shouldn’t have followed him</a>.”</p>
<p>These two Republicans and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">several others</a> see a potential president in the mirror. Which one <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/531796-five-gop-contenders-other-than-trump-for-2024">mirrors the current GOP</a> will depend on the realignment or retrenchment between the populists and the traditionalists.</p>
<p>Polished populism – Trump’s policies without his personality – may be the future of the GOP’s identity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150820/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s ticket to the White House was a coarse version of populism. Will his successors in the GOP be different – or simply present a more polished version of his antagonistic rhetoric?Morgan Marietta, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellDavid C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.