tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/carbon-510/articlesCarbon – The Conversation2024-03-05T15:02:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248692024-03-05T15:02:19Z2024-03-05T15:02:19ZArctic rivers face big changes with a warming climate, permafrost thaw and an accelerating water cycle − the effects will have global consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579392/original/file-20240303-24-mmw6cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1333%2C9000%2C6157&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water from the Mackenzie River, seen from a satellite, carries silt and nutrients from land to the Arctic Ocean.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90703/mackenzie-meets-beaufort">Jesse Allen/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.</p>
<p>Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474">four times faster</a> than the rest of the world, the region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1">is seeing more precipitation</a> and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows major rivers and their water sheds, primarily in Russia, Alaska and Canada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579353/original/file-20240303-28-rq37ng.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=749&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Major river basins of the Arctic region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/detect/land-river.shtml">NOAA Arctic Report Card</a></span>
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<p>We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024">In a new study</a> using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers. </p>
<p>We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.</p>
<h2>Thawing permafrost: Big changes in Arctic soils</h2>
<p>Permafrost thaw is one of the most consequential changes that the Arctic is experiencing as temperatures rise. </p>
<p>Permafrost is soil that has been <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/permafrost">frozen for at least two years</a> and often for millennia. It covers approximately 8.8 million square miles (about 22.8 million square kilometers) in Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but that area is shrinking as the permafrost thaws.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people stand on a cliff with permafrost evident." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579355/original/file-20240303-22-s4w5f9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usgeologicalsurvey/12116729705">Brandt Meixell/USGS</a></span>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where permafrost is found, both in ground and below the ocean." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564666/original/file-20231210-25-jz5ezj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Known permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.grida.no/resources/13519">GRID-Arendal/Nunataryuk</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this “overland runoff.” </p>
<p>However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.</p>
<p>When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study.</p>
<p>More carbon in river water could end up “outgassed” upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338">climate warming</a>. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/18/arctic-permafrost-thawing-deadly-pathogens/71581668007/">emergence of long-frozen viruses</a>. </p>
<h2>More rain and snow, more runoff</h2>
<p>The Arctic’s water cycle is also ramping up as temperatures rise, meaning more precipitation, evaporation, plant transpiration and river discharge. This is primarily due to a warmer atmosphere’s inherent ability to hold more moisture. It’s the same reason that <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-warming-climate-can-bring-bigger-snowstorms-176201">bigger snowstorms are occurring</a> as the climate warms. </p>
<p>Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two maps show increasing snow and rainfall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579640/original/file-20240304-28-gtrh1a.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024">Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024</a></span>
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<p>More snow in northern Alaska, Siberia and Canada will lead to more water flowing in rivers, potentially up to 25% more under a high-warming scenario based on our research. There is more carbon in the soil in northern parts of the Arctic compared with the south. With permafrost thaw, those regions will also see more water coming into rivers from below the surface, where additional soil carbon can leach into the water and become dissolved organic carbon.</p>
<p>More <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa1fe">old carbon is already showing up</a> in samples gathered from Arctic rivers, attributed to permafrost thaw. Carbon dating shows that some of this carbon has been frozen for thousands of years. </p>
<h2>Impacts will cascade through Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>So, what does the future hold? </p>
<p>One of the most notable changes expected involves the transport of fresh water and associated materials, such as dissolved organic carbon and heat energy, to Arctic coastal zones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A scientist in a rain jacket and cap holds up a water sample in a jar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579395/original/file-20240303-28-uto6m1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael A. Rawlins</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://ble.lternet.edu/">Coastal lagoons</a> may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.738363">our current understanding</a> of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky.</p>
<p>River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">observed this in spring 2023</a>, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite view of the Arctic coast showing a river and sea ice breaking up." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579397/original/file-20240303-20-8tx0p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/83271/river-discharge-alters-arctic-sea-ice">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
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<p>Finally, more river water reaching the coast has the potential to freshen the Arctic Ocean, particularly along northern Eurasia, where big Russian rivers export massive amounts of fresh water each year. </p>
<p>There are concerns that <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2021/river-discharge/">rising river flows in that region</a> are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-oceans-major-current-system-is-slowing-down-but-a-21st-century-collapse-is-unlikely-214647">have been slowing in recent years</a> as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would <a href="https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-melting-glaciers-shut-down-the-gulf-stream-we-would-see-extreme-climate-change-within-decades-study-shows-222834">significantly affect temperatures</a> across North America and Europe.</p>
<p>At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael A. Rawlins receives funding from The Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ambarish Karmalkar receives funding from the Department of Energy and the United States Geological Survey. </span></em></p>A new study shows how thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers.Michael A. Rawlins, Associate Director, Climate System Research Center and Associate Professor of Climatology, UMass AmherstAmbarish Karmalkar, Assistant Professor of Geosciences, University of Rhode IslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240542024-02-29T21:22:20Z2024-02-29T21:22:20ZThermal networks: The missing infrastructure we need to help enable carbon-free heating<p>Most of us who live in the Northern Hemisphere have a fundamental problem: we want to reduce our carbon emissions, but we also need to heat our homes.</p>
<p>The good news is there is a way to do both by creating thermal networks. A thermal network is a system of insulated, underground pipes that directly distribute heat to homes and other buildings using heat generated from clean sources — including nuclear reactors.</p>
<p>Rather than using their own furnaces, boilers, fireplaces or electric baseboard heaters to heat buildings, consumers would receive heat directly from a utility. </p>
<p>It’s an opportunity that is set to grow as Canada expands its nuclear energy supply and creates more heat in the process, especially with <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Canadian-government-launches-SMR-support-programme">small modular reactors</a> expected to start coming on-stream in the next decade.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">Are small nuclear reactors the solution to Canada’s net-zero ambitions?</a>
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<h2>Scaling up</h2>
<p>Our research collaboration has produced — with the help of experts from McMaster University, The Boltzmann Institute and Canadian Nuclear Association — a <a href="https://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/mcmaster-institute-for-energy-studies/featured-publications/#thermal-networks-position-paper">position paper</a> presenting the case for large-scale thermal networks to be created across Canada, with nuclear power plants potentially providing up to half of the heat. </p>
<p>Similar technology using heat from non-nuclear sources is <a href="https://cieedacdb.rem.sfu.ca/district-energy-inventory">already a reality in Canada</a> in the form of <a href="https://toolkit.bc.ca/tool/district-energy-systems-2/">district energy systems</a>. </p>
<p>Many buildings in <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/ceedc/publications/facilities/CEEDC%20-%20District%20Energy%20Report%202023.pdf">Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver</a> and on university campuses, such as McMaster University, are served by hot water or steam-based central heating plants, using heat that is purpose-made and piped across campus. What’s more, Canada already <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2021/toronto-deep-latke-water-cooling-raptors/">leads the world in district cooling networks</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of the basic principle of Toronto’s Deep Lake Water Cooling System produced by the Canada Green Building Council. Thermal networks will move thermal energy similar to the way networked water pipes do, except they will move heat from producer to consumer across a shared system.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080795/us-thermal-energy-networks/">Thirteen states in the United States</a> are implementing a thermal networks utility model. In <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/opinion/district-heating-and-cooling-is-one-of-europes-top-solution-to-reduce-fossil-imports-but-we-need-decisive-eu-action-to-tap-into-this-potential/">Europe</a>, 67 million people enjoy heating from thermal networks and district heating systems supplied by a variety of sources in a mix that is increasingly <a href="https://vbn.aau.dk/en/publications/heat-roadmap-europe-4-quantifying-the-impact-of-low-carbon-heatin">less reliant on carbon</a>.</p>
<p>The idea is catching on, and it’s time to scale up.</p>
<h2>Leftover heat</h2>
<p>As many as 70 per cent of Canadians live in communities that could be warmed by thermal networks. The networks would deliver heated water that warms buildings in the same way household radiators distribute heat — but on a much <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.12.001">larger public scale</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/zibi-waste-heat-recovery-1.7117832">Such systems</a> are capable of efficiently sending heat through buried pipelines to homes, schools, hospitals, office buildings, shopping malls and other structures, greatly reducing the demand for electricity and heating fuel and making space on the electrical grid to accommodate growing electricity demand from electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps. </p>
<p>One of the most appealing aspects of this opportunity is that most of the required heat is already available and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121291">going unused</a>. Heat from major sources, such as <a href="https://www.powermag.com/district-heating-supply-from-nuclear-power-plants/">nuclear power plants</a>, can be transmitted as far as 100 km to where it is needed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-nuclear-reactor-gentilly-2-1.6932355">Québec</a>, <a href="https://www.opg.com/releases/capital-power-and-opg-partner-to-advance-new-nuclear-in-alberta/">Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick</a> are all considering building new or re-starting existing reactors. Together with existing reactors, much of Canada’s population would fall within this range.</p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119546">reactors</a>, thermal networks could share their useful leftover heat instead of releasing it into the environment as is typically done today. This water, used in coiling, gathers heat but does not come into contact with nuclear material and is in no way contaminated. </p>
<p>The recent joint declaration at the <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_88702/countries-launch-joint-declaration-to-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-by-2050-at-cop28">UN climate conference COP28</a> to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 means there will be significantly more heat from large reactors, such as the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-darlington-nuclear-plant-1.6899969">new nuclear fleet proposed in Ontario</a>, which could supply warmth to homes in the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p><a href="https://smrroadmap.ca/">Small modular reactors</a>, which are expected to come on-stream widely as local alternatives to fuel-burning sources of electricity, could supply heat locally while also generating revenue from heat that would otherwise be wasted.</p>
<p>Alternatively, residual heat from <a href="https://www.ngif.ca/harvest-systems-successfully-demonstrates-waste-heat-recovery-from-pizza-pizza-ovens/">restaurants</a>, commercial and industrial processes, water heated by solar or geothermal energy, or the combustion of dried biomass can do exactly the same thing with <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Integrating-low-temperature-renewables-in-district-energy-systems">little to no greenhouse gas emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>Funding the change</h2>
<p>Though our appetite for thermal networks is growing, apprehension over the cost of creating large-scale public systems has stifled enthusiasm for implementing them here.</p>
<p>Certainly, the challenge of laying new pipelines to every urban home is daunting, but that need not be a barrier. It’s not that long ago that water, electricity and natural gas were not delivered directly to homes and other buildings, either. </p>
<p>The managers of those utilities, both public and private, developed efficient methods for deployment, balanced the <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/UTAustin_FCe_History_2016.pdf">cost of their infrastructure</a> over decades and included the financing costs in customers’ bills. All of these techniques could help build thermal networks across Canada. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.cga.ca/energy-magazine-post/when-was-canadas-natural-gas-distribution-system-built-and-what-is-it-made-of/">Natural gas only started to become commonly available in Canada</a> in the 1950s, with networks of buried pipes being extended to the most populated areas of the country through the 1980s. <a href="https://brilliantio.com/how-were-homes-heated-in-the-1960s/">Before then</a>, people had oil, coal or wood delivered, or used electricity from coal-fired plants — all of them significant sources of greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The conversion made heating <a href="https://www.fortisbc.com/services/natural-gas-services/considering-upgrading-to-gas-up-to-2700-in-appliance-rebates-available-for-a-limited-time/annual-fuel-cost-comparison">cheaper and cleaner</a>. It <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/canadas-energy-transition/canadas-energy-transition-historical-future-changes-energy-systems-update-energy-market-assessment-global-energy.html">halved our carbon emissions</a>. It required a huge effort, but it happened, and it can happen again.</p>
<p>Thermal networks present an opportunity to harvest heat from natural sources or <a href="https://futurium.ec.europa.eu/en/urban-agenda/energy-transition/library/action-2-recommendation-paper-maximising-use-waste-heat-cities">heat that would otherwise be wasted</a> and use it for a vital purpose of keeping Canadians warm while helping to reduce carbon emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Cotton is the founder and CEO of Harvest Systems Inc. He receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ontario Centre of Innovation and Boltzmann Institute. </span></em></p>Underground thermal networks have the potential to revolutionize how Canadians heat their homes while helping to reduce carbon emissions.James (Jim) S. Cotton, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189732024-02-21T21:59:26Z2024-02-21T21:59:26ZThermoelectric technologies can help power a zero-carbon future<p>Thermometers are an under-appreciated marvel of human ingenuity built upon an understanding of relatively simple physical principles. Mercury and alcohol thermometers rely on the volume of liquids growing or shrinking in reaction to temperature change. Contactless <a href="https://www.omega.ca/en/resources/infrared-thermometer-how-work#:%7E:text=Infrared%20thermometers%20employ%20a%20lens,absorbed%20and%20converts%20into%20heat.">infrared thermometers, by contrast, read the thermal radiation emitted by any object, from frying pans to the human body</a>. </p>
<p>While digital thermometers, such as infrared, are a relatively recent invention other types <a href="https://www.whipplemuseum.cam.ac.uk/explore-whipple-collections/meteorology/early-thermometers-and-temperature-scales">have been around for hundreds of years</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.omega.com/en-us/resources/how-thermocouples-work">There is, however, another type of digital thermometer known as a thermocouple. Thermocouples are commonly used in industrial applications</a> and leverage a natural phenomenon whereby the meeting of two different temperatures generates electrical current. This principle can be used both to measure temperatures and, more excitingly, to actually harvest useful electricity from everyday temperature changes. I am part of a team working to help make this technology a practical reality.</p>
<h2>Thermoelectric</h2>
<p>In 1821, <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=1u0ZWscprXkC&printsec=frontcover&redir_esc=y&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false">German physicist Thomas Johann Seebeck</a> observed that a nearby magnetic compass needle was deflected by a closed electrical circuit made of two different metals. Two years later, physicists <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Hans Christian Ørsted and Jean Baptiste Joseph reported that the interaction of the two metals, once connected in a circuit, had generated an electrical current because one was warmer than the other.</a></p>
<p>This physical phenomenon was later named the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/seebeck-effect">Seebeck Effect</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mser.2018.09.001">Interestingly, Italian physicist Alessandro Volta — in whose honour the term volt is named — had observed and explained the same phenomenon in 1794</a> using nerves from a dead frog. Volta generated an electric current using a metal wire, two glasses of water (each at a different temperature) and the nerves of the frog as an electrical bridge. </p>
<p>A grisly image, but one which foreshadowed future scientific breakthroughs.</p>
<p>Excited at the possibilities, scientists worked to exploit the findings by making and harvesting useful amounts of electric current simply by connecting two materials at different temperatures. Today we call this <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2010/explained-thermoelectricity-0427">thermoelectricity</a>, and we still use it in very specific contexts.</p>
<p>NASA has utilized the advantages of thermoelectric technology to make deep space exploration possible by coupling thermoelectric generators with radioactive material as the fuel.</p>
<p>Launches using radioisotope thermoelectric generators include the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/mission/overview/">Curiosity Mars rover in 2011</a>, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25181/nasas-perseverance-rover-launches-to-mars/">the Perseverance in 2020</a>, and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-dragonfly-will-fly-around-titan-looking-for-origins-signs-of-life/">the planned launch of the Dragonfly</a> <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/dragonfly-launch-moved-to-2027/">in 2027 to Saturn’s moon Titan</a>. </p>
<p>This piece of technology even breached the realm of popular culture as a result of its central role in the 2011 novel — and later film of the same name — <em>The Martian</em> by Andy Weir. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A trailer for <em>The Martian</em> starring Matt Damon. A radioisotope thermoelectric generator features heavily in the film.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Closer to home</h2>
<p>Here on Earth, <a href="https://www.globalte.com/products/generators/tegs">thermoelectric generators have been used in remote areas to generate electricity</a>. For example, <a href="https://www.sunset.com/travel/camping/camp-stove-charger-biolite">a small thermoelectric module, connected to a portable boiler or stove, can charge your phone while you’re camping at the expense of fuel</a>. This is but a small example; thermoelectric devices could do much more.</p>
<p>Human societies make excessive amounts of heat through numerous processes from cooking, industrial activity to even air conditioning and refrigeration. After these processes are finished, almost all of this heat dissipates without capturing the electricity it could provide. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
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<p>For example, only about one-third of the energy produced in a gasoline-powered car is used while <a href="https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/how-efficient-is-your-cars-engine">the other two-thirds is lost as heat</a>. That lost heat could be captured to power thermoelectric devices, which would <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-hev.shtml#:%7E:text=Like%20conventional%20gasoline%2Dpowered%20vehicles,the%20engine%2C%20and%20combustion%20inefficiency">dramatically improve fuel efficiency</a>.</p>
<p>We could do the same in factories and in many other places where heat is a wasted by-product of another function. And building these systems would help us <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">reach our net-zero target by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>So, why on Earth (literally) are we not using thermoelectrics to recycle wasted heat?</p>
<p>Simply put, a thermoelectric device requires a material which must conduct electricity well and conduct heat poorly. Without these characteristics the temperature difference, and generative potential, between the two sides of the device will not be maintained.</p>
<p>Copper wire, for example, conducts electricity very well but also is an excellent heat conductor. These qualities make for great wire but also leaves copper as a poor candidate in this application. </p>
<h2>Building the materials</h2>
<p>The ideal materials for thermoelectricity do not exist naturally. As such, the priority in the field of thermoelectric research is to create materials that are both efficient and inexpensive, so they can be mass-produced and widely applied — ideally at minimal resource cost. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1369-7021(11)70278-4">Some known thermoelectric material candidates include lead, however, its toxicity and environmental impacts rules it out as a viable candidate</a>. More benign alternatives must be found.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-bridge-to-nowhere-natural-gas-will-not-lead-canada-to-a-sustainable-energy-future-176734">A bridge to nowhere: Natural gas will not lead Canada to a sustainable energy future</a>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2TC02448A">Currently, a few thermoelectric materials seem to have the potential to help mitigate the climate crisis we are facing.</a></p>
<p>Along with my colleagues at McMaster University, I am working with industrial partners to help develop cheaper, more reliable new materials. Central to this is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intermet.2020.106831">understanding the changes in performance</a> between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/C8DT02521E">various materials</a>. We hope to develop materials which perform well both in the lab, and at scale. </p>
<p>All too often electricity is discussed in terms of how we can generate more. We need more plants, more fuel, more solar — more everything. We suggest that this is only half the picture. We must also learn to smartly utilize all stages of the energy life-cycle to not just generate but also store, and use thermoelectric technology to capture the electricity in that wasted heat. </p>
<p>Only by doing this can we truly make a more efficient power grid and help drive a carbon-free future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chun-wan Timothy Lo was an Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral (CGS-D) holder from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) during the course of his doctoral studies. Lo currently is a program member of the McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellows Teaching and Leadership Program from McMaster University. </span></em></p>Human societies produce huge amounts of excess heat. Turning it into electricity could play a key role in achieving a net-zero society.Chun-wan Timothy Lo, McCall MacBain Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225622024-02-07T12:03:07Z2024-02-07T12:03:07ZUK peatlands are being destroyed to grow mushrooms, lettuce and houseplants – here’s how to stop it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573477/original/file-20240205-17-9w5rwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Peat is a natural carbon sink but is often found in house plants and other retail products, particularly within the food and farming industry. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-transplanting-houseplant-into-new-pot-2321168311">New Africa/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the long, solitary days of lockdown, I found solace in raising houseplants. Suddenly stuck at home, I had more time to perfect the watering routine of a fussy Swiss cheese plant, and lovingly train our devil’s ivy to delicately frame the bookcases. </p>
<p>But I started noticing that these plants, sourced online, often arrived in the post with a passport. Most had travelled from all over Europe, with one common tagline: contains peat.</p>
<p>As a peatland scientist, these labels instantly filled me with horror. <a href="https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/ban-sale-peat">Hidden Peat</a>, a new campaign launched by The Wildlife Trusts, is now highlighting the presence of peat in all sorts of consumer products, including house plants. </p>
<p>Peatlands, such as bogs and fens, store more carbon than all of the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/peatlands-and-climate-change">world’s forests combined</a>. They trap this carbon in the ground for centuries, preventing it from being released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases that would further warm the climate. </p>
<p>Peatlands have <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/uknaturalcapitalforpeatlands/naturalcapitalaccounts">multiple environmental benefits</a>. They are havens for wildlife, providing habitat for wetland birds, insects and reptiles. They supply more than 70% of our drinking water and help protect our homes from flooding. </p>
<p>So why on earth is peat being ripped from these vital ecosystems and stuffed inside plant pots?</p>
<h2>From sink to source</h2>
<p>Despite their importance, peatlands have been systematically drained, farmed, dug up and sold over the last century. In the UK, only <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/649d6fe1bb13dc0012b2e349/lowland-agricultural-peat-task-force-chairs-report.pdf">1% of lowland peat</a> remains in its natural state. </p>
<p>Instead of acting as a carbon sink, it has become one of the <a href="https://oro.open.ac.uk/50635/">largest sources</a> of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK’s land use sector. When waterlogged peat soils are drained, microbes decompose the plant material within it and that results in the <a href="https://www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Peatland%20factsheet.pdf">release of greenhouse gases</a> such as methane into the air. </p>
<p>Most of the peat excavated, bagged up and sold in the UK is used as a growing medium for plants. Gardeners have become increasingly aware of this problem. Peat-free alternatives have been gaining popularity and major retailers have been phasing out peat-based bagged compost in recent years. </p>
<p>Indeed, the UK government announced they would ban sales of all peat-based compost <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sale-of-horticultural-peat-to-be-banned-in-move-to-protect-englands-precious-peatlands">by 2024</a>. But this legislation has not yet been written and it seems unlikely it will be enacted before the end of the current parliament. </p>
<p>Even if brought in to law, this ban would only stop the sales of peat-based bagged compost of the type you might pick up in the garden centre. Legislation for commercial growers is not expected until 2030 at the earliest. So the continued decimation of the UK’s peatlands could remain hidden in supply chains long after we stop spreading peat on our gardens. </p>
<h2>Hide and seek peat</h2>
<p>For consumers, it’s almost impossible to <a href="https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/news/devastating-using-peat-uk-horticulture#:%7E:text=In%202020%20alone%2C%20nearly%20900%2C000%20cubic%20metres%20of%20peat%20were%20extracted%20from%20UK%20soils%2C%20with%20a%20further%201.4%20million%20cubic%20metres%20of%20peat%20imported%20from%20Ireland%20and%20the%20rest%20of%20Europe">identify products</a> that contain peat or use peat in their production. All large-scale commercial mushroom farming involves peat and it is used for growing most leafy salads. It gives that characteristic peaty aroma to whisky, and, as I found out, is a popular growing medium for potted plants. </p>
<p>But you’d struggle to find a peat-free lettuce in the supermarket. The Hidden Peat campaign asks consumers to call for clear labelling that would enable shoppers to more easily identify peat-containing products. Shoppers are also encouraged to demand transparency from retailers on their commitment to removing peat from their supply chains. </p>
<p>You can ask your local supermarket about how they plan to phase out peat from their produce. Some supermarkets are actively investing in new technologies for <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2326773-uk-mushroom-growing-uses-100000-m%25c2%25b3-of-peat-a-year-can-we-do-better/">peat-free mushroom farming</a>. </p>
<p>Make informed purchases by checking the labels on garden centre potted plants or source plants from peat-free nurseries. The Royal Horticultural Society lists more than 70 UK nurseries dedicated to <a href="https://www.rhs.org.uk/advice/peat/peat-free-nurseries">peat-free growing</a>. </p>
<p>You can write to your MP to support a ban on peat extraction and, crucially, the sale of peat and peat-containing products in the UK. That ensures that peat wouldn’t just get imported from other European countries. </p>
<h2>Pilots and progress</h2>
<p>The UK government recently announced <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lowland-agricultural-peat-water-for-peat-pilots/lowland-agricultural-peat-water-for-peat-pilots">£3.1m funding</a> for pilot projects to rewet and preserve lowland peat, with peat restoration seen as a cornerstone of net zero ambitions. This campaign calls for further acceleration of peatland restoration across the UK. </p>
<p>As a research of the science behind <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fin-ring-hrubesh-peatland-restoration">peatland restoration</a>, I see firsthand the enormous effort involved in this: the installation of dams to block old agricultural drainage ditches, the delicate management of water levels and painstaking monitoring of the peat wetness.</p>
<p>I spend a lot of time taking samples, monitoring the progress, feeding results back to the land managers. Like many other conservationists, I work hard to find ways to preserve these critical habitats. </p>
<p>But sometimes, there may be a digger in the adjacent field doing more damage in a day than we could undo in a lifetime. That’s the reality, and the insanity, of the UK’s current peatland policies. </p>
<p>We heavily invest in restoring peatlands, yet fail to ban its extraction – the one action that would have the most dramatic impact. By demanding that peat is not only eradicated from garden compost, but weeded out of our supply chains, we can keep peat in the ground, not in pots.</p>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Casey Bryce works with the Somerset Wildlife Trust to monitor peat restoration, funded by the University of Bristol department for alumni relations. </span></em></p>Hidden Peat, a new campaign from The Wildlife Trusts, encourages people to look out for peat-free alternatives and support their wider use.Casey Bryce, Senior Lecturer, School of Earth Sciences, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157652024-01-11T17:23:58Z2024-01-11T17:23:58ZHow much life has ever existed on Earth?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567152/original/file-20231221-25-fybvl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3619%2C2197&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In primary production, inorganic carbon is used to build the organic molecules life needs. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-much-life-has-ever-existed-on-earth" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>All organisms are made of living cells. While it is difficult to pinpoint exactly when the first cells came to exist, geologists’ best estimates suggest at least as early as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-9268(00)00128-5">3.8 billion years ago</a>. But how much life has inhabited this planet since the first cell on Earth? And how much life will ever exist on Earth? </p>
<p>In our new study, published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.09.040"><em>Current Biology</em></a>, my colleagues from the <a href="https://www.weizmann.ac.il/">Weizmann Institute of Science</a> and <a href="https://www.smith.edu/academics/geosciences">Smith College</a> and I took aim at these big questions.</p>
<h2>Carbon on Earth</h2>
<p>Every year, about 200 billion tons of carbon is taken up through what is known as primary production. During primary production, inorganic carbon — such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and bicarbonate in the ocean — is used for energy and to build the organic molecules life needs. </p>
<p>Today, the most notable contributor to this effort is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrm1525">oxygenic photosynthesis</a>, where sunlight and water are key ingredients. However, deciphering past rates of primary production has been a challenging task. In lieu of a time machine, scientists like myself rely on clues left in ancient sedimentary rocks to reconstruct past environments. </p>
<p>In the case of primary production, the isotopic composition of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0349-y">oxygen</a> in the form of sulfate in ancient salt deposits allows for such estimates to be made. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.09.040">our study</a>, we compiled all previous estimates of ancient primary production derived through the method above, as well as many others. The outcome of this productivity census was that we were able to estimate that 100 quintillion (or 100 billion billion) tons of carbon has been through primary production since the origin of life. </p>
<p>Big numbers like this are difficult to picture; 100 quintillion tons of carbon is about 100 times the amount of carbon contained within the Earth, a pretty impressive feat for Earth’s primary producers. </p>
<h2>Primary production</h2>
<p>Today, primary production is mainly achieved by plants on land and marine micro-organisms such as algae and cyanobacteria. In the past, the proportion of these major contributors was very different; in the case of Earth’s earliest history, primary production was mainly conducted by an entirely different group of organisms that don’t rely on oxygenic photosynthesis to stay alive.</p>
<p>A combination of different techniques has been able to give a sense of when different primary producers were most active in Earth’s past. Examples of such techniques include identifying the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2021.07.038">oldest forests</a> or using molecular fossils called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23457">biomarkers</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.09.040">our study</a>, we used this information to explore what organisms have contributed the most to Earth’s historical primary production. We found that despite being late on the scene, land plants have likely contributed the most. However, it is also very plausible that cyanobacteria contributed the most.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="green hair-like strands of bacteria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567163/original/file-20231221-21-1tcat1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Filamentous cyanobacteria from a tidal pond at Little Sippewissett salt marsh, Falmouth, Mass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/argonne/26719316190">(Argonne National Laboratory)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Total life</h2>
<p>By determining how much primary production has ever occurred, and by identifying what organisms have been responsible for it, we were also able to estimate how much life has ever been on Earth. </p>
<p>Today, one may be able to approximate how many humans exist based on how much food is consumed. Similarly, we were able to calibrate a ratio of primary production to how many cells exist in the modern environment. </p>
<p>Despite the large variability in the number of cells per organism and the sizes of different cells, such complications become secondary since single-celled microbes dominate global cell populations. In the end, we were able to estimate that about 10<sup>30</sup> (10 noninillion) cells exist today, and that between 10<sup>39</sup> (a duodecillion) and 10<sup>40</sup> cells have ever existed on Earth. </p>
<h2>How much life will Earth ever have?</h2>
<p>Save for the ability to move Earth into the orbit of a younger star, the lifetime of Earth’s biosphere is limited. This morbid fact is a consequence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9633-1_4">our stars life cycle</a>. Since its birth, the sun has slowly been getting brighter over the past four and half billion years as hydrogen has been converted to helium in its core. </p>
<p>Far in the future, about two billion years from now, all of the biogeochemical fail-safes that keep Earth habitable will be pushed past their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00693-5">limits</a>. First, land plants will die off, and then eventually the oceans will boil, and the Earth will return to a largely lifeless rocky planet as it was in its infancy. </p>
<p>But until then, how much life will Earth house over its entire habitable lifetime? Projecting our current levels of primary productivity forward, we estimated that about 10<sup>40</sup> cells will ever occupy the Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a blue planet in space" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567209/original/file-20231222-15-cdexst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A planetary system 100 light-years away in the constellation Dorado is home to the first Earth-size habitable-zone planet, discovered by NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details/PIA23408">(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Earth as an exoplanet</h2>
<p>Only a few decades ago, exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars) were just a hypothesis. Now we are able to not only <a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/">detect them</a>, but describe many aspects of thousands of far off worlds around distant stars. </p>
<p>But how does Earth compare to these bodies? In our new study, we have taken a birds eye view of life on Earth and have put forward Earth as a benchmark to compare other planets. </p>
<p>What I find truly interesting, however, is what could have happened in Earth’s past to produce a radically different trajectory and therefore a radically different amount of life that has been able to call Earth home. For example, what if oxygenic photosynthesis never took hold, or what if endosymbiosis never happened?</p>
<p>Answers to such questions are what will drive my laboratory at <a href="https://earthsci.carleton.ca/">Carleton University</a> over the coming years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Crockford receives funding from the Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and Carleton University</span></em></p>Over two billion years from now, Earth will no longer be able to sustain life. A new study looks at how much life has ever existed and what this means for the discovery of new life-supporting planets.Peter Crockford, Assistant Professor, Earth Sciences, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173512023-12-17T13:41:42Z2023-12-17T13:41:42ZIf a tree burns in Canada’s unmanaged forest, does anyone count the carbon?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/if-a-tree-burns-in-canadas-unmanaged-forest-does-anyone-count-the-carbon" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this fall, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01005-y">a commentary</a> in the journal <em>Nature Communications, Earth & Environment</em> argued for a change to the implementation of the Paris Agreement’s reporting mechanisms. The authors called for all countries to report carbon emissions and removals taking place across their <em>entire</em> territories, not just <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change-adapting-impacts-and-reducing-emissions/climate-change-impacts-forests/carbon-accounting/inventory-and-land-use-change/13111">within so-called “managed” lands</a> (as is presently the case).</p>
<p>However, this poses a challenge here in Canada, as there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2013-0041">deep uncertainty about the total carbon flux (balance of emissions and captures) in Canada’s “unmanaged” land</a>. </p>
<p>I echo calls for the Government of Canada to scale up and improve its greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/annualconference/abs.php?refnum=50-230424-C">and modelling across Canada’s <em>entire</em> territory</a>, and to report these findings in a much more open and transparent manner as part of its annual National GHG Inventory. </p>
<h2>Differentiating between managed and unmanaged land</h2>
<p>Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, member countries are expected to <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf/reporting-of-the-lulucf-sector-by-parties-included-in-annex-i-to-the-convention">report GHG emissions and removals</a> taking place as a result of human activities. However, within the LULUCF (or Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) sector, it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x">not always clear what constitutes an <em>anthropogenic</em> influence</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/GPG_LULUCF_FULLEN.pdf">guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> has been to delineate between “managed” and “unmanaged” lands, and to focus GHG reporting on the former since these are areas under substantive human influence. While a number of countries make use of this distinction, the portion of land in Canada that is unmanaged is truly significant — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-018-0095-3">equivalent to about 69 per cent of the country’s total land area</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.506002/publication.html">Canada’s National GHG Inventory</a> does contain information about the carbon flux within managed lands, or lands comprised mostly of managed forest. There is currently around 232 million hectares of managed forest in Canada, however, this leaves roughly 715 million hectares of land in Canada which is technically unmanaged — all of which are unaccounted for in the National GHG Inventory.</p>
<p>What’s more, while Canada does track emissions from natural disturbances (such as in a forest fire) occurring in managed areas, it does not actually report these disturbances to the UN as part of its LULUCF emissions, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/land-based-greenhouse-gas-emissions-removals.html">based on the claim that these are not anthropogenic</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/quebecs-hardwood-trees-could-move-north-heres-how-that-could-affect-the-boreal-forest-landscape-218397">Québec's hardwood trees could move north. Here's how that could affect the boreal forest landscape</a>
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<p>While there is a logic to separating these out, there is a substantial difference to Canada’s total LULUCF emissions, depending on whether or not they are included. For instance, if natural disturbances are included in the tally, Canada’s managed land is typically a net <em>source</em> of carbon, while if they are not included, Canada’s managed land is <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/state-canadas-forests-report/16496">typically a net carbon sink</a>.</p>
<p>The underlying problem, however, is the lack of clear and transparent information about GHG emissions and removals in Canada’s unmanaged lands. </p>
<h2>Estimates vary widely</h2>
<p>Earlier this summer, during Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfire-season-2023-wrap-1.6999005">unprecedented wildfire season</a>, I asked the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Canada (NRCAN) for historical information about the net Carbon flux in unmanaged lands. I was surprised to learn that NRCAN does not yet have this data. </p>
<p>What NRCAN does have is a <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/carbon-accounting/carbon-budget-model/13107">very robust carbon budget modelling tool</a>, and thanks to this, some preliminary (unverified) estimates of wildfire emissions in unmanaged forests.</p>
<p>Wildfire emissions estimates for unmanaged forests are indeed a step in the right direction (as wildfires account for the bulk of emissions from natural disturbances), but there still remains a majority of unmanaged land which is not forested — including, for instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145212">vast peatlands which are also subject to wildfires</a>. </p>
<p>No GHG emissions of any type occurring in unmanaged lands are currently being tracked or reported within the National GHG Inventory process.</p>
<p>There have been various efforts to quantify these emissions, yet estimates vary considerably, with some data sets limited to forest lands, and others looking at the full national territory. </p>
<p><a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1093/2023/essd-15-1093-2023.pdf">One recent estimate</a> used 16 different “Dynamic Global Vegetation Models,” and found that over the 20-year period from 2000-2020 unmanaged forests sequestered on average about 189 Megaton CO2 per year. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/">Global Carbon Project’s estimates of “atmospheric inversions”</a> suggests there may be orders of magnitude more carbon removal in Canada’s unmanaged land.</p>
<p>The size of the discrepancy between these estimates is puzzling. While one obvious explanation comes down to the former model using intact forests as a proxy for unmanaged land, and the latter model including all of Canada’s unmanaged land area, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/963/2023/">scientists believe there may be more to this discrepancy</a>.</p>
<h2>A need for further research and better reporting</h2>
<p>It is unfortunate that Canada has no publicly stated estimate of the country’s total carbon flux. This is important information to help track whether Canada’s landmass is sequestering enough CO2 to offset natural disturbances, or whether the latter are outweighing the former. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<p>It is essential that the Government of Canada enhance its <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/annualconference/abs.php?refnum=50-230424-C">current efforts in land-based carbon flux analysis</a>, and that such data and analysis is reported to the public in a more clear and transparent way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan M. Katz-Rosene does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Current greenhouse gas inventories in Canada only consider “managed” lands. This must change before we can truly understand the scale of Canada’s carbon emissions.Ryan M. Katz-Rosene, Associate Professor, School of Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199062023-12-15T02:16:58Z2023-12-15T02:16:58ZCOP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time<p>At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this week, nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">agreed</a> to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas . After 30 years of COP meetings, the world has finally committed to weaning itself from these carbon-based drivers of climate change.</p>
<p>As Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-australias-chris-bowen-hails-cop28-agreement">told the media</a>, the deal “sends a signal to the world’s markets, investors and businesses that this is the direction of travel for countries right around the world.”</p>
<p>This COP statement is the first to name and shame <em>all</em> carbon-based fuels driving the climate crisis – not just coal, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">mentioned</a> in previous COP agreements, but also oil and gas. </p>
<p>The deal is a collective global aspiration rather than a legally binding agreement. Even so, it should put an end to the idea that burning carbon – both in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050. </p>
<h2>Renewables on the rise</h2>
<p>The statement on carbon-based fuels is significant, but largely symbolic. In Australia, coal as a fuel has long been on the way out. Improved domestic energy efficiency has <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/energy-consumption#:%7E:text=Australia%27s%20energy%20consumption%20fell%200.1,2021%2D22%20was%207%20PJ.">reduced energy consumption</a>, even as the economy has grown. Most of this has come at the expense of coal – a trend likely to continue as electricity generation moves further towards renewables. </p>
<p>As the below table shows, starting from a base of almost zero, solar and wind energy generation has risen at startling annual rates over the last decade: 30% for solar and 15% for wind. Although shares of total energy consumption are still fairly small, these growth rates imply solar and wind will generate more energy than coal by the end of the decade.</p>
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<p>Australia’s consumption of oil, mostly in the form of imported petrol and diesel fuel, has remained largely steady over the past decade. Successive federal governments have dithered on the transition to electric vehicles. But if Australia is to get anywhere near the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, it must now tackle the transport sector <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport#:%7E:text=Driving%20The%20Nation-,National%20collaboration%20on%20EVs,10%25%20of%20Australia%27s%20total%20emissions.">which in 2022</a> produced 19% of Australia’s emissions – more than half from passenger and light commercial vehicles.</p>
<p>Given the absence of a domestic motor vehicle industry in Australia, the current government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">inaction on electric vehicles</a> is surprising. It appears driven in part by a fear of populist campaigns by the Coalition and others about the effects on motorists. Who could forget claims in 2019 by then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison that electric vehicles would “end the weekend […] It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot” – claims since proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">incorrect</a>.</p>
<p>Also in play is the political lobbying power of the retail motor industry, backed by foreign car manufacturers keen to maintain a market for their remaining supply of petrol-driven vehicles.</p>
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<h2>The myth of carbon capture and storage</h2>
<p>The final text also called for the acceleration of “zero and low emission technologies”. Controversially, this includes removal technologies such as carbon capture and storage, which involves trapping, transporting and storing greenhouse gas emissions from facilities such as coal-fired power stations and gas plants.</p>
<p>The inclusion of this technology was criticised by many observers as a loophole which would allow polluting, inefficient industries to continue. But it is better understood as a symbolic sop to the coal, oil and gas industries, which have long pinned their hopes of staying in business on the idea of burying the carbon they emit. </p>
<p>In reality, carbon capture and storage is a <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/carbon-capture-and-storage-fuels-more-net-zero-fraud/">proven failure</a>. The Gorgon gas project on the Barrow Island nature reserve, off Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, has stored <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/world-s-biggest-carbon-storage-project-off-wa-coast-burying-only-a-third-of-what-it-promised-to-20231113-p5ejm4.html">barely a third</a> of the targeted amount of carbon, forcing the proponents to <a href="https://australia.chevron.com/news/2022/acquisition-and-surrender-of-offsets-complete#:%7E:text=PERTH%2C%20Western%20Australia%2C%2015%20July,facility%20over%20the%20five%2Dyear">buy carbon offsets</a> instead (themselves a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/24/carbon-offsets-are-a-licence-to-pollute">dubious option</a>). Similarly, the only operating project capturing emissions from a coal-fired power plant, at <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">Boundary Dam in Canada</a>, has under-performed on carbon capture capacity by a huge margin.</p>
<p>So while carbon-capture is theoretically available as an option for new projects, in most cases it will prove either technically impossible or <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically infeasible</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week</a>
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<h2>Australia faces a choice on energy exports</h2>
<p>The COP28 statement’s call for an “urgent and equitable transition to renewable energy” presents opportunities for Australia. As Bowen <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-bowen-says-after-cop28-win-20231213-p5ercz">acknowledged</a>:</p>
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<p>Australia wants to be a renewable energy powerhouse, we want to create the energy for ourselves, and for our region and for the world […] The COP decision today gives us a very good ecosystem in which to develop that plan.</p>
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<p>But of course, “that plan” is totally inconsistent with the plans of the coal and gas industries, which are announcing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">new projects</a> intended to operate well into the second half of this century. By <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/case-for-gas-as-transition-fuel-falling-apart-on-both-economic-and-environmental-costs/">backing</a> these projects, the federal government is essentially betting that the aspirations of the COP28 statement will turn out to be just wishful thinking, and that Australia can profit from a world of catastrophic global heating.</p>
<p>Australia must now decide what kind of energy superpower it wants to be: the home of a sustainable future, or the last refuge of coal and gas extraction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>The deal is a global aspiration, not a legally binding agreement. But it should end the idea that burning carbon – in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193822023-12-08T21:14:38Z2023-12-08T21:14:38ZCOP28: The scientific basis for a rapid fossil fuel phase out<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/cop28-the-scientific-basis-for-a-rapid-fossil-fuel-phase-out" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It was perhaps unavoidable that fossil fuels would take centre stage at this year’s COP28 climate negotiations, held in Dubai and presided over by oil magnate Sultan al-Jaber. </p>
<p>And indeed, it took only days for controversy to erupt in the wake of al-Jaber’s claim that there <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">is no science behind the need to phase out fossil fuels to meet the 1.5 C target</a> of the Paris Agreement. He later claimed he was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/04/cop28-president-says-no-science-for-fossil-fuel-phase-out-claim-was-misinterpreted">misinterpreted</a>. </p>
<p>Scientists were quick to respond. A <a href="https://futureearth.org/2023/12/05/sign-the-cop28-statement-the-science-is-clear-we-need-net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050/">statement signed by more than 100 climate scientists</a> reiterated that the world needs to achieve net zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050 to limit warming, and that all scenarios consistent with the 1.5 C target include an immediate and rapid decline in fossil fuel use. </p>
<p>The key question at play in <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_0.pdf">this year’s negotiations</a> though is whether declining fossil use needs to lead to a phase out of all fossil fuels, or merely a phase down. </p>
<p>And should this language refer to all fossil fuel use, or only <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/07/climate/what-does-unabated-mean-anyway.html">“unabated” fossil fuels</a>: those that continue to be used without carbon capture technology to prevent some of the resulting emissions.</p>
<h2>Branching paths</h2>
<p>There are as <a href="https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ar6-scenario-explorer-and-database">many different 1.5 C scenarios</a> as scientists who signed the statement responding to al-Jaber’s claim. All of these 1.5 C scenarios show how we might reach net zero CO₂ emissions, but the technological pathways can differ considerably. </p>
<p>Some use large amounts of <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/carbon-capture">carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)</a> technology to decrease the emissions resulting from continued fossil fuel use. Virtually all also include <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Factsheet_CDR.pdf">carbon dioxide removal (CDR)</a>: natural or technological strategies to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>All 1.5 C scenarios show that our immediate goal must be to achieve a peak and rapid decrease of global use of fossil fuel energy this decade. But without a complete phase out of fossil fuels, limiting warming to 1.5 C would require the widespread use of CCS to limit the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels, as well as CDR to remove from the atmosphere those emissions that cannot be abated by capture technology. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of the technologies, and controversies surrounding carbon capture systems, produced by the Financial Times.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cop28-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-1.7048746">Fossil fuel industry representatives</a> are quick to claim that CCS (and its subtle variant <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage">CCUS: Carbon Capture <em>Utilization</em> and Storage</a>), is how the fossil fuel industry will bring the world to align with the 1.5 C target. </p>
<p>But after decades of research and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/09/carbon-capture-oil-gas/">billions of dollars of government financing</a>, CCS remains an <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">expensive and inefficient CO₂ abatement</a> technology that has not lived up to expectations. </p>
<p>So while CCS may have a role to play, for now that role seems fairly limited. </p>
<h2>Not practically viable</h2>
<p>A recent study shows that an over-reliance on CCS in 1.5 C pathways leads to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-12/Assessing-the-relative-costs-of-high-CCS-and-low-CCS-pathways-to-1-5-degrees.pdf">far higher economic costs</a>, compared with pathways that limit its use to capturing only the most difficult-to-abate CO₂ emissions, such as those from cement manufacture.</p>
<p>Carbon dioxide removal is <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1304575/global-carbon-capture-cost-by-technology/">even more difficult and expensive</a>. Where CCS captures CO₂ from the high-concentration output of power plants, CDR must capture CO₂ from the much lower ambient levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere itself. </p>
<p>Both processes require the captured CO₂ to be sequestered in permanent reservoirs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01245-w">to contribute to a durable net-zero CO₂ world</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://netzeroclimate.org/research/carbon-dioxide-removal/">Virtually all current carbon dioxide removal</a> is being achieved by forest-based methods such as afforestation and reforestation. However, these forest-based removals amount to less than a third of the amount of <a href="https://globalcarbonbudget.org">CO₂ emitted globally by deforestation and other land-use changes</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<p>Natural forest regeneration and other nature-based carbon removal methods <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn9668">have an important role to play</a> in reversing the climate and biodiversity consequences of global deforestation. But their limited capacity and risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005">impermanence in the face of increasing climate disturbances</a> means that natural carbon storage is not able to offset ongoing fossil fuel emissions.</p>
<p>Technological carbon removal methods could achieve larger removal levels, but these come with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2870">high economic and/or environmental costs</a>. Biomass energy with CCS, or BECCS (which uses harvested biomass to produce energy, combined with technological capture and sequestration of the emissions), would have severe <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/BECCS-deployment---a-reality-check.pdf">repercussions for ecological systems and could also negatively impact global food production</a>. </p>
<p>Direct air capture with carbon sequestration (DACCS) could avoid some of these land-use consequences, but comes with an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/innovators-trying-bring-down-sky-high-cost-direct-air-capture-2023-10-24/">even higher price tag</a>.</p>
<h2>Choices</h2>
<p>The scientific literature is clear that CCS and CDR methods are difficult, expensive and unable to deliver rapid near-term emissions reductions. And yet, virtually all 1.5 C emissions scenarios include both CCS and CDR methods in their transition to net zero CO₂ emissions.</p>
<p>So the question of whether the science supports the need for an “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_0.pdf">orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels</a>” depends on what we believe CCS and/or CDR will be able to deliver between now and 2050. </p>
<p>Will the costs of technological CCS and CDR methods come down fast enough to allow these technologies to expand to the scale that would be needed to counter ongoing fossil fuel use? And if so, will we be able to employ these technologies without causing significant harm to ecological systems, food security and Indigenous and local communities? </p>
<p>And what is the incentive to do so when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.10.024">renewable energy</a> is so much <a href="https://www.theenergymix.com/ccs-costs-cant-compete-with-renewables-wont-deliver-by-2030-report-finds">easier and cheaper</a>? The track record so far suggests that neither CCS nor CDR is likely to help us overcome these challenges anytime soon.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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<p>This year’s COP28 has become a battle between fossil fuel industry lobbyists trying to carve out room for fossil fuels a in a 1.5 C pathway, and a growing civil society movement calling for a <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org">fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a>. </p>
<p>Scientific evidence can inform this discussion, but can only take us so far. The world needs to make a choice that is based on the science, and to have this choice reflected in the negotiated outcome of COP28.</p>
<p>As a climate scientist working in this space, I would choose a future that increases equity, restores natural systems, and replaces fossil fuels with non-carbon renewable energy, grounded on a robust fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.</p>
<p>I would choose to pursue a rapid and just fossil fuel phase out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219382/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, from Microsoft and from the Climate Change Action Fund of Environment and Climate Change Canada.</span></em></p>Does the science support the need for a fossil fuel phase out to reach 1.5 C? The answer depends on whether we believe that carbon capture and removal technologies can be deployed safely at scale.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Climate Scientist, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175532023-12-07T19:19:14Z2023-12-07T19:19:14ZHarnessing the oceans to ‘bury’ carbon has huge potential – and risk – so NZ needs to move with caution<p>Climate change might not be high on its immediate agenda, but New Zealand’s new government does have one potentially significant and innovative policy.</p>
<p>Recognising the marine environment’s ability to remove atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), it has <a href="https://assets.nationbuilder.com/nzfirst/pages/4462/attachments/original/1700784896/National___NZF_Coalition_Agreement_signed_-_24_Nov_2023.pdf?1700784896">pledged to consider</a> bringing wetlands into the emissions trading scheme, and to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/133356580/the-unexpected-climate-plans-of-the-new-government">investigate the potential</a> of kelp farms to sequester CO₂.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/mi/pb/library-research-papers/research-papers/library-research-brief-new-zealand-s-response-to-addressing-climate-change/">current sequestration plans</a> rely heavily on planting forests and buying international carbon credits to offset emissions. </p>
<p>Emissions reduction and the removal of atmospheric CO₂ are both needed to keep global temperature increase to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Headline-statements.pdf">less than 1.5°C</a>. But the country is still <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/new-zealand/">far from on track</a> to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, and the national goal of net zero by 2050.</p>
<p>At the same time, New Zealand has the world’s sixth largest exclusive economic zone, with unique oceanographic features for CO₂ removal that are attracting international interest. The ocean is Earth’s largest carbon sink, having removed around <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/june/oceans-absorb-emissions">30% of global CO₂ emissions</a> to date. </p>
<p>New Zealand also has the scientific expertise to research the potential for harnessing its seas to help achieve national net zero ambitions. But it lacks a clear strategy for assessing risk and developing the most beneficial solutions.</p>
<h2>Benefits and risks of marine CO₂ removal</h2>
<p>Around the world, projects are under way to restore coastal wetlands by “re-wetting” drained land and planting mangroves, seagrass and other coastal plants. These “blue carbon” projects aim to restore the carbon burial properties of wetlands, with related benefits for biodiversity and coastal resilience. </p>
<p>A growing number of countries are including coastal wetlands in their climate accounting and reporting. Increasingly, these projects are tied to carbon credit schemes – which seems to be what New Zealand’s new government is also signalling.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/blue-carbon-could-a-solution-to-the-climate-challenge-be-buried-in-the-depths-of-fiords-205639">Blue carbon: could a solution to the climate challenge be buried in the depths of fiords?</a>
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<p>But the ways in which the nation’s marine environment could help lower atmospheric CO₂ extend far beyond coastal wetlands. There is great interest in enhancing natural oceanic processes, known as “marine carbon dioxide removal”, or mCDR. </p>
<p>In the open ocean, mCDR <a href="http://www.gesamp.org/publications/high-level-review-of-a-wide-range-of-proposed-marine-geoengineering-techniques">aims to increase</a> CO₂ uptake via giant seaweed farms, enhancing seawater alkalinity, and fertilising areas of the ocean to promote algal blooms. </p>
<p>The appeal of mCDR lies in the ocean’s potential capacity to draw down enormous amounts of carbon. But while the potential gains are large, there are gaps in our knowledge. More investment is needed to determine the net carbon benefits – and potential ecological risks – of intervening in nature in these ways.</p>
<h2>Carbon burial at sea</h2>
<p>Plants in the sea – mangroves, seaweed, and microscopic phytoplankton – capture CO₂ through photosynthesis, just like their counterparts on land. But permanently removing that carbon from the atmosphere means burying it in the deep sea or the seafloor. </p>
<p>This presents challenges. It is relatively easy to measure the carbon uptake by a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jpy.13249#:%7E:text=We%20propose%20a%20Forensic%20Carbon,of%20carbon%20sequestration%20to%20seaweeds">seaweed farm</a>, for example, but much harder to track the path of that carbon into a permanent reservoir. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-maritime-territory-is-15-times-its-landmass-heres-why-we-need-a-ministry-for-the-ocean-210123">New Zealand's maritime territory is 15 times its landmass – here's why we need a ministry for the ocean</a>
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<p>Similarly, we need more accurate accounting for increased CO₂ uptake from ocean fertilisation or alkalinity enhancement, and the ultimate fate of that carbon in the vast and remote ocean environment. This will be crucial for ensuring the integrity and credibility of such approaches.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://pce.parliament.nz/our-work/news/carbon-stored-in-marine-sediments-needs-protection/">seafloor carbon map</a> has highlighted the parts of New Zealand’s marine environment, such as the deep ocean and <a href="https://theconversation.com/blue-carbon-could-a-solution-to-the-climate-challenge-be-buried-in-the-depths-of-fiords-205639">fiords</a>, that are important carbon reservoirs. </p>
<p>But we also need to consider the vulnerability of these reservoirs. If disturbed, they may store less carbon, or even release it.</p>
<h2>Lessons and opportunities</h2>
<p>There are already <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/asia-pacific/new-zealand/stories-in-new-zealand/blue-carbon/">well-established projects</a> focused on the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00288330.2023.2245770?src=">blue carbon potential</a> of coastal wetlands in New Zealand. But overall the country lacks a clear plan for marine carbon removal, or indeed for its <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-maritime-territory-is-15-times-its-landmass-heres-why-we-need-a-ministry-for-the-ocean-210123">oceans in general</a>. </p>
<p>A comprehensive approach to evaluating marine CO₂ removal has to be informed by scientific research. And while major funding of research and development is <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-36-million-advance-marine-carbon-dioxide-removal-techniques-and-slash">happening elsewhere</a>, New Zealand’s limited resources mean it must be strategic about where it invests.</p>
<p>The many blue carbon and mCDR <a href="https://ocean-climate.org/en/ipcc-report-the-ocean-is-also-part-of-the-solution-to-climate-change-mitigation/">solutions being considered</a> internationally are a good place to start. Applying this knowledge to New Zealand’s unique environmental and cultural settings will involve <a href="https://oceanvisions.org/highlevelroadmap/">weighing up each solution</a> before committing to a strategy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-vital-kelp-forests-are-in-peril-from-ocean-warming-threatening-the-important-species-that-rely-on-them-212956">NZ’s vital kelp forests are in peril from ocean warming – threatening the important species that rely on them</a>
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<p>Importantly, international climate policy and governance needs to be developed in parallel with scientific advances. Right now, coastal wetlands are the only marine environment included in the International Panel for Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/wetlands/">guidelines</a> for greenhouse gas inventories. More work will be needed to apply those guidelines to New Zealand’s coastal wetlands.</p>
<p>There are good working models already in the blue carbon forums established in <a href="https://www.bluecarbon.scot">Scotland</a> and the <a href="https://www.ukbluecarbonforum.com">United Kingdom</a>. These <a href="https://www.cefas.co.uk/impact/programmes/uk-blue-carbon-evidence-partnership/">distil scientific information</a>, develop strategies and plans, and act as conduits between scientists, policy makers and politicians. </p>
<p>A similar approach in New Zealand would help advance a nationally coordinated framework of research, policy and environmental management that strategically considers all blue carbon and mCDR options. </p>
<p>Such a strategy will consider the net carbon benefit versus the risks and possible ecological side effects, particularly for mCDR. </p>
<p>But the country is well positioned to explore how the ocean might contribute to its climate goals. The scientists are ready, the government has pledged action – it’s time to get moving.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca J McLeod receives funding from the MBIE Endeavour Fund. She is the Chair of the Fiordland Marine Guardians. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cliff Law receives funding from the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment for determining the role of the ocean in the climate system. </span></em></p>New Zealand’s new government has vowed to explore ‘blue carbon’ options for removing atmospheric CO₂ to meet net zero goals. But first we need a national strategy for this developing field of science.Rebecca J McLeod, Senior Research Fellow in Marine Ecology, University of OtagoCliff Law, Principal Scientist, National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2192502023-12-07T12:05:41Z2023-12-07T12:05:41ZUnprecedented drought in the Amazon threatens to release huge stores of carbon – podcast<p>As world leaders and their climate negotiators gathered at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in early December, on the other side of the world, Brazil was experiencing an unprecedented drought in the Amazon. Scientists fear it could release of billions of additional tons of carbon into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast, we speak to an ecologist who has spent 45 years living in and studying the Amazon for causes of drought, why it’s so dangerous for the planet, and what can be done to protect the rainforest.</p>
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<p>Philip Fearnside lives in Manaus, a city of around 2 million people in Brazil’s Amazonas state. A professor at the country’s National Institute of Amazonian Research, he explains that right now, the region is suffering from a severe and unprecedented drought:</p>
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<p>It’s the lowest water levels at Manaus since data started being recorded in 1902, so 121 years. The trees are dying. There’s a big cannelier tree in my front yard that just died from one day to the next. </p>
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<p>The drought also leads to fires, with smoke causing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/29/mass-death-of-amazonian-dolphins-prompts-fears-for-vulnerable-species">pollution levels in Manaus to soar</a>. Elsewhere, the Amazon river bed is being exposed, making life difficult for people who live and work near the river. Animals are also suffering: in September, <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?9899466/Around-10-of-the-river-dolphin-population-of-Lake-Tefe-died-in-one-week">150 river dolphins</a> were found dead in Lake Tefé, where water temperatures had reached 39°C. </p>
<p>Fearnside explains that the drought is caused by three interlocking factors. Two are El Niño climate patterns caused by warm water in both the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The third is what’s called an Atlantic dipole: a patch of warm water in the north Atlantic Ocean which, combined with colder water in the south Atlantic, affects rainfall patterns in the Amazon: </p>
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<p>It won’t be until May or June that the probability of having normal water temperature in the centre of the Pacific Ocean at least passes 50% … so we’ve got a long time with droughts ahead of us.</p>
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<p>While it’s difficult to pinpoint the cause of this particular drought as climate change, Fearnside says the frequency of El Niños and Atlantic dipoles “is much much greater because of climate change”. </p>
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Leia mais:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-region-hit-by-trio-of-droughts-in-grim-snapshot-of-the-century-to-come-217652">Amazon region hit by trio of droughts in grim snapshot of the century to come</a>
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<h2>Climate tipping point</h2>
<p>The Amazon holds enormous stores of carbon. Its trees alone store around <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12798">80 billion tonnes of carbon</a>, with another 90 billion in the first metre of soil. Fearnside likens this to a latent bomb that could explode unintentionally, because the droughts and the forest fires could destroy those carbon stores and release more CO₂ into the atmosphere: </p>
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<p>Everyone hears about how much deforestation there is every year, and how much greenhouse gases are emitted, but this big store of carbon that isn’t being emitted isn’t talked about so much. And that could really be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in terms of global climate. Just a fraction of that going into the atmosphere in the space of a few years could push the climate over this tipping point. So it’s essential not to let that happen.</p>
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<p>Fearnside has a message for climate negotiators at the COP28 climate summit: that it’s obvious the use of fossil fuels must be reduced immediately and “eventually eliminated”. </p>
<p>For Brazil, he says the government should not be expanding new gas and oil fields in the mouth of the Amazon river, and has to work in a joined up way to eliminate all deforestation in the Amazon by its stated target of 2030. </p>
<p>Listen to the full interview with Philip Fearnside to find out what else needs to be done to protect the Amazon on the <a href="https://podfollow.com/the-conversation-weekly/view">The Conversation Weekly</a>, and read an article he <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-region-hit-by-trio-of-droughts-in-grim-snapshot-of-the-century-to-come-217652">wrote here too</a>. A transcript of this episode is <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2992/Amazon_Drought_Transcript.docx.pdf?1703068671">now available.</a> </p>
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<p><em>This episode was written and produced by Katie Flood with assistance from Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the executive producer of the show. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</em></p>
<p><em>Newsclips in this episode from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3L_ZgUIRXo&ab_channel=WION">WION</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn5KV1_bJ04">UOL</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCHPY2CZlEE">Reuters</a>.</em></p>
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<p><em>Listen to <em>The Conversation Weekly</em> via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Fearnside does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brazil’s rainforest is a massive carbon store, so its severe drought could be a tipping point for the global climate. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173552023-12-06T21:59:33Z2023-12-06T21:59:33ZCarbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As delegates gather in Dubai <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/un-climate-change-conference-united-arab-emirates-nov/dec-2023/about-cop-28#:%7E:text=COP%2028%20is%20an%20opportunity,is%20already%20happening%20and%20ultimately">at the COP28 climate conference</a> — with the aim to ratchet up ambition towards meeting the goals of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> — a key component of these efforts are <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">countries’ pledges</a> to achieve net-zero emissions around mid-century. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions</a> refers to a balance between CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere and CO₂ removals from the atmosphere, such that the net effect on CO₂ levels in the atmosphere is zero. It is often assumed that if such a balance is achieved, the net effect on climate would also be zero. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<p>However, in a recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">paper in <em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>, we show that unless we consider a number of other factors — such as permanence of carbon stored in vegetation and soils, changes in the reflectivity of landscapes and the full suite of greenhouse gases emitted — balancing CO₂ emissions with removals will not achieve the intended climate goal.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Carbon dioxide removal</a> (CDR) refers to human activities that deliberately remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. CDR can leverage either natural or technological systems, though in either case, it must be additional to the CO₂ removal that is driven by passive <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/carbon-sources-and-sinks/">carbon sinks</a> already at work, such as existing forests. </p>
<p><a href="https://cdrprimer.org/read/chapter-2">Examples of CDR</a> include planting trees on previously deforested or unforested lands, producing bio-energy and capturing and storing the emitted carbon, fertilizing the ocean to stimulate biological production and capturing CO₂ directly from the air through chemical and technological means.</p>
<h2>What are the potential problems?</h2>
<p>For CDR to balance the climate effects of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, it needs to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5">result in permanent carbon storage</a>, meaning that the carbon must remain undisturbed for centuries to millennia. However, carbon stored in trees is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005">vulnerable to natural disturbances</a> such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41854-x">droughts</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4">wildfires</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06777">insect outbreaks</a> and other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12558">biotic disturbances</a> and could be re-released much sooner. </p>
<p>Carbon sequestered and stored in <a href="https://ecoevocommunity.nature.com/posts/31382-marine-heat-wave-impacts-world-s-largest-seagrass-carbon-stores">seagrass meadows</a> or mangrove forests, for example, is re-released following marine heat waves. Any reversals in land-use and management decisions can also affect the permanence of carbon stored by CDR. </p>
<p>Several CDR approaches, when deployed at a large-scale, affect fluxes of energy and water at the Earth’s surface, resulting in so-called <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.756115/full?mc_cid=84ae26d1c7&mc_eid=8249944246">“biogeophysical” effects</a> on climate that are in addition to the effects of CO₂ sequestration. </p>
<p>For example, large-scale planting of trees in agricultural areas or grasslands results in a reduction of how well the land surface is able to reflect sunlight, and therefore leading to a <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/629/2023/">warming effect</a>. This effect is particularly strong in regions with seasonal snow cover, where the darker colour of trees reduces the high reflectivity of snow. </p>
<p>Deployment of a range of CDR methods can also result in increased emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, two powerful greenhouse gases. For instance, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage and reforestation require the use of nitrogen fertilizers, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2018.11.033">enhances nitrous oxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Restoration of coastal ecosystems, such as seagrass meadows or mangrove forests, can also result in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64094-1">increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/geoengineering-sounds-like-a-quick-climate-fix-but-without-more-research-and-guardrails-its-a-costly-gamble-with-potentially-harmful-results-211705">Geoengineering sounds like a quick climate fix, but without more research and guardrails, it's a costly gamble − with potentially harmful results</a>
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<p>Because of the potential impermanence of carbon stored by CDR, and biogeophysical and other greenhouse gas effects, balancing emissions of CO₂ with CDR might not always result in the intended climate outcome. </p>
<p>For example, balancing fossil-fuel emissions with CO₂ removal through large-scale reforestation can result in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">higher global warming</a> compared to a case where the fossil fuel emissions are eliminated. This asymmetry could lead to exceeding temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<h2>What to do about it?</h2>
<p>For the reasons above, greenhouse gas accounting, and policies designed to offset greenhouse gas emissions, need to consider the full suite of climate effects of the proposed CDR to ensure intended climate goals are not compromised.</p>
<p>CDR approaches with short carbon storage time scales, or at high risk of natural and/or anthropogenic disturbance (like in fire-prone regions), should not be used to balance fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>For carbon removal that targets carbon stores at lower risks of disturbance, it is crucial that net-zero protocols also require an excess amount of CDR as an insurance in the event of carbon losses. </p>
<p>Similarly, CDR approaches that result in biogeophysical effects or release gases such as methane and nitrous oxide upon deployment risk fully negating the climate benefit of carbon sequestration and should be excluded as a means of balancing fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>In cases where biogeophysical effects or the release of GHGs partly counter the climate benefit of carbon sequestration, an additional amount of CDR is also required to compensate these effects. The measures used to establish equivalency between CO₂ emissions and removals, and biogeophysical and GHG effects, need to be rigorous and grounded in science. </p>
<h2>Emissions reductions remain primary</h2>
<p>Nature-based climate solutions that are not suitable for balancing fossil-fuel emissions because of a high risk of carbon losses — and/or large biophysical or GHG effects — may still be appropriate to deploy <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120">because of benefits</a> other than climate change mitigation. That includes preserving or restoring biodiversity and increasing the resilience of landscapes. </p>
<p>If deployed in addition rather than as an alternative to fossil-fuel emission reductions, these <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">solutions can still have climate benefits, even if relatively temporary</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-7-policies-could-help-save-a-billion-lives-by-2100-212953">COP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100</a>
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<p>Carbon dioxide removal <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">will be needed</a> to balance emissions that are difficult to eliminate and increase the odds of meeting the Paris Agreement climate goal. </p>
<p>However, while CDR can play a crucial role in climate change mitigation, the current uncertainty around its full effects underscores the need to prioritize reducing emissions as rapidly and as much as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Zickfeld receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Environment and Climate Change Canada's Climate Action and Awareness Fund and Microsoft.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program.</span></em></p>Carbon capture and sequestration can play a role in limiting warming but the nuances of its application are far more complicated than just planting trees. Getting it wrong could make warming worse.Kirsten Zickfeld, Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Simon Fraser UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147562023-12-01T17:52:49Z2023-12-01T17:52:49ZElectric arc furnaces: the technology poised to make British steelmaking more sustainable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556676/original/file-20231030-19-zblfpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Steel production in an electric arc furnace.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/steel-production-electric-furnace-780620236">Norenko Andrey/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a move to embrace sustainable steelmaking, British Steel has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/06/british-steel-scunthorpe-furnaces-jobs">unveiled</a> a £1.25 billion plan to replace two blast furnaces at its Scunthorpe plant with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/electric-arc-furnace-process">electric arc furnaces</a>. This follows the UK government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/welsh-steels-future-secured-as-uk-government-and-tata-steel-announce-port-talbot-green-transition-proposal">commitment</a> in September to <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/live-updates-thousands-job-losses-27716778">invest</a> up to £500 million towards an electric arc furnace at Tata Steel’s Port Talbot plant in south Wales.</p>
<p>This method of steelmaking can use up to 100% scrap steel as its raw material, resulting in a significant reduction in carbon emissions. It is the future of steelmaking. </p>
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<p>Steel is an incredible material and for good reason. It’s the world’s most commonly used metal because it’s strong, durable and recyclable, making it the perfect material for everything from skyscrapers to electric vehicles and solar panels. More than <a href="https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/annual-production-steel-data/?ind=P1_crude_steel_total_pub/WORLD_ALL/GBR">1.8 billion tonnes</a> of crude steel were produced globally last year. That number is only expected to grow as the world transitions to a more sustainable future.</p>
<p>The UK uses around 12 million tonnes of steel each year. And in 2022, it produced just under 6 million tonnes, contributing to around <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2023-0016/CDP-2023-0016.pdf">2.4%</a> of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Electric arc furnaces</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.eurofer.eu/about-steel/learn-about-steel/what-is-steel-and-how-is-steel-made">two main</a> steel production methods. Currently, Port Talbot and Scunthorpe use the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace method. The purpose of the blast furnace is to separate iron ore extracted from the ground into its component parts: iron and oxygen. </p>
<p>A form of carbon, normally coal, combines with the oxygen in the iron ore. The outputs of this process are iron and carbon dioxide. The basic oxygen furnace is then used to convert the iron into steel. </p>
<p>As a global average, this method of steelmaking emits around <a href="https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/Sustainability-Indicators-2022-report.pdf">2.32 tonnes</a> of CO₂ per tonne of steel produced. </p>
<p>An electric arc furnace works by generating a high-temperature arc between graphite electrodes, using electricity as the energy source. This arc is then used to melt metal inside a chamber. </p>
<p>Using this method, up to 100% scrap steel can be used as the raw material, while the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace method can only use a maximum of <a href="https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/raw-materials/">30% scrap</a>. A switch to the electric arc furnace method could reduce emissions to 0.67 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel produced when using 100% scrap steel.</p>
<p>In the future, it is also possible the electricity needed for electric arc furnace processes could come from 100% renewable sources, whereas a form of carbon will always be needed to reduce iron ore when using the blast furnace method.</p>
<h2>Recycled steel</h2>
<p>Steel is the most recycled material in the <a href="https://worldsteel.org/about-steel/steel-industry-facts/steel-core-green-economy/">world</a>, and so scrap steel is quickly becoming a crucial raw material. In 2021, the global steel industry recycled around 680 million tonnes of scrap steel. This equates to <a href="https://worldsteel.org/about-steel/steel-facts?fact=53">savings</a> of almost 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions, compared to using virgin steel production. </p>
<p>In 2021, more than <a href="https://www.bir.org/images/BIR-pdf/Ferrous_report_2017-2021_lr.pdf">8.2 million tonnes</a> of steel scrap was exported from the UK. If collected and sorted more carefully, using this material domestically could provide both environmental and economic value, by helping to meet growing national demand for steel.</p>
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<img alt="A large steelworks lit up at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6015%2C3357&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556639/original/file-20231030-27-aeouwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Tata Steel plant in Port Talbot, south Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/port-talbot-wales-uk-industrial-landscape-1264187401">Christopher Willans/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>We know that steel produced with an electric arc furnace can have different properties to blast furnace produced material. A large factor in this is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03019233.2020.1805276">quality of scrap steel</a> used in the electric arc furnace – if the scrap steel quality is low, then so will the quality of the output.</p>
<p>With that in mind, there is a need for research, innovation and skills development to ensure this transition to lower-carbon steelmaking methods is successful. </p>
<p>Finding and sorting the right types of scrap material, confirming material properties and increasing supply chain understanding of electric arc furnace steelmaking are all necessary for a wide range of steel products to continue to be made in the UK.</p>
<h2>Sustainable steelmaking</h2>
<p>There is a race across Europe to secure investment for sustainable steelmaking technologies. <a href="https://www.hybritdevelopment.se/en/">Hybrit</a> is a fossil-free steel project in Sweden between several major steel producers and is already underway. </p>
<p>This follows plans to invest almost <a href="https://energypost.eu/hybrit-project-sweden-goes-for-zero-carbon-steel/">€40 billion</a> (almost £35 billion) in low-emission steelmaking technologies over the next 20 years. Also in Sweden, the company H2 Green Steel has secured <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swedens-h2-green-steel-gains-support-345-bln-debt-funding-fossil-fuel-free-plant-2022-10-24/">€3.5 billion</a> (£3 billion) to build a hydrogen-powered steel plant.</p>
<p>In July 2023, the German government announced €2 billion (£1.7 billion) of <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/eu-commission-oks-e2-billion-state-aid-for-ailing-german-steel-sector/">support</a> for Thyssenkrupp, the steel multinational. And that was on top of the €3 billion (£2.6 billion) it had previously announced to support the country’s industrial green transition. A</p>
<p>ArcelorMittal, the second largest steel producer in the world, has also announced green investment in their plants in <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3404">Belgium</a> and <a href="https://corporate.arcelormittal.com/climate-action/decarbonisation-investment-plans/spain-a-1-billion-investment-to-halve-our-carbon-emissions-and-create-the-world-s-first-full-scale-zero-carbon-emissions-steel-plant">Spain</a>, totalling more than €1.2 billion (£1.5 billion).</p>
<p>While the UK government has <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-uk-should-lead-on-a-green-industrial-strategy-not-roll-back/">no published</a> industrial strategy, other organisations have produced roadmaps for decarbonised steelmaking in the UK. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.energy-transitions.org/new-report-breakthrough-steel-investment/">report</a> by the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of energy leaders committed to net-zero emissions, outlined plans for investing in low-emission steelmaking in early 2023. With the right level of government and private sector investment, the UK could become a world leader in green steelmaking – but only it acts now.</p>
<p>As global temperatures continue to rise and the climate emergency deepens, the need for a decarbonised steel industry is greater than ever. Lower carbon methods of steel production are the future of the industry both in the UK and around the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Becky Waldram receives funding from EPSRC, as part of the SUSTAIN Hub (Strategic University Steel Technology and Innovation Network). She is member of the Institute of Materials, Minerals & Mining. </span></em></p>Electric arc furnaces can use up to 100% scrap steel as its raw material, resulting in a significant reduction in emissions.Becky Waldram, Materials Scientist and SUSTAIN Impact & Engagement Manager, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180192023-11-30T21:30:08Z2023-11-30T21:30:08ZCOP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Headlines across the world this year focused on fires, including both <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/world-on-fire-canada-s-worst-wildfire-season-on-record-1.6946472">wildfires</a> and <a href="https://geneva-academy.ch/galleries/today-s-armed-conflicts">the use of military firepower</a>, in various places. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/combustion">Combustion</a> is the key to both. </p>
<p>Considering, and rethinking, the role of fuel in our lives helps put in perspective <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/52988/fossil-fuels-are-fuelling-war/">the wars</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-state-of-the-planet-in-10-numbers/">climate disasters</a> caused by fuel. At the same time, such an exercise also reveals the role of fuel in both creating and mediating global insecurity. Simply put, while it may still be a necessity, fuel is no longer the solution to insecurity that it may have once been.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/">COP28 gets underway today in Dubai</a>, world leaders need to focus attention on fuel and the central role it plays in both the climate crisis and human insecurity. Only by doing so can we hope to address the failures of the past few years to grapple with the urgency of climate change action. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-bad-is-climate-change-already-and-what-do-we-need-to-do-next-to-tackle-it-218309">COP28: how bad is climate change already and what do we need to do next to tackle it?</a>
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<h2>Depending on fuel</h2>
<p>Much of the discussion about climate security focuses on questions of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad053">whether climate change will cause conflict</a>. But looking at the larger links between climate and the disruptions it causes throughout society are a <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023">much more useful way of thinking about climate insecurity</a>. </p>
<p>Floods, storm damage, wildfires and droughts all so disruptive that if current trends persist they may make it impossible for some societies to transition towards a sustainable economy. </p>
<p>Countries may disintegrate and induce conflict that makes coping with climate change even harder, a theme <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/thematic-program?trk=public_post_comment-text">that will be on the agenda</a> for the first time in the history of COP at this year’s conference. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-7-policies-could-help-save-a-billion-lives-by-2100-212953">COP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100</a>
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<p>As a professor working on security and climate, and the author of a <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/pyromania/9781788216517">new book synthesizing these issues</a>, it is clear to me that it is time to rethink energy, climate, security and, crucially, fuel. </p>
<h2>Fuelling insecurity</h2>
<p>While Gaza City <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/11/29/as-truce-holds-people-in-gaza-venture-out-to-survey-destruction">was devastated by Israeli bombs</a> in October, nearly simultaneously <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">Acapulco was destroyed by hurricane Otis</a>. In both cases, the disruption or destruction of urban infrastructure endangered local populations. </p>
<p>Electricity and internet blackouts because of the disruption of fuel supplies to run generators are a common occurrence across the world, with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62053991">South Africa</a> and <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143547">the hospitals in Gaza being a case-in-point</a>. Across the border from Gaza, Egyptians feared <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2023/11/01/power-cuts-make-an-unwelcome-comeback-in-egypt-as-high-temperatures-linger/">blackouts because of natural gas supply disruptions</a> indirectly caused by the war next door. </p>
<p>The danger of wildfires will only grow as <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/wildfires-and-climate-change/">climate change dries out ecosystems, effectively turning vegetation into potential fuel</a>. This same combustion within engines and furnaces, meanwhile, <a href="https://ugc.berkeley.edu/background-content/burning-of-fossil-fuels/">is also the source of a sizeable percentage of climate changing gases in the atmosphere</a>. Both involve burning fuel. </p>
<p>But the absence of fuel in South African power stations, hospitals in Gaza or for heating Canadian homes in winter also makes people in these places insecure. </p>
<p>Too much fuel in drying forests is aggravating wildfires. Too little fuel in generators presents numerous hazards when electricity isn’t available. Both increasingly require a security response to keep people safe and shore up social arrangements stressed by the disruptions. Security in these circumstances is about maintaining minimal public order so that evacuations can be arranged and relief supplies can be distributed. </p>
<h2>Breaking up with fuel</h2>
<p>Societies need energy, but if climate insecurities are to be reduced, we need to get it without burning fuel. This will help with reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing down climate change and all the disruptions that it is causing. But it will also improve peoples’ safety in other ways, too. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60664799">Fears of cold winters in Europe without Russian gas</a>, electricity blackouts in Egypt, failing hospitals in Gaza and much else are due to their dependence on fuel. Failure to get diesel, natural gas and petroleum to where it is needed is, in part, because of <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-economy-2023-covid-19-turned-global-supply-chains-upside-down-3-ways-the-pandemic-forced-companies-to-rethink-and-transform-how-they-source-their-products-196764">long supply lines that are easily disrupted</a> by political and economic actions. </p>
<p>In addition to cutting off fuel in Gaza, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/israeli-forces-target-solar-panels-at-gazas-al-shifa-hospital">Israeli attacks destroyed the solar panels at al-Shifa hospital</a>, which, of course, didn’t need fuel to keep at least key operating theatre and water filtration functions going despite the chaos around them. </p>
<p>Renewable sources of energy, wind power, solar panels, hydro and so on don’t use fuel and are less susceptible to supply disruptions. While there are <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023/clean-energy-supply-chains-vulnerabilities">concerns about the international supplies of key components</a> of renewable energy systems, once solar panels are installed in your neighbourhood, you don’t care if a war in the Middle East causes supply issues; your power supply comes from close by, not the other side of the world. </p>
<p>It’s time to break up with fuel — and global energy supply chains more fundamentally — and aim to live more safely with renewable electricity produced closer to home. This may be a tall order at this year’s COP in Dubai, which is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/17/cop28-host-uae-breaking-its-own-ban-on-routine-gas-flaring-data-shows?CMP=share_btn_tw">run by the CEO of an oil company whose track record on climate is dubious</a>.</p>
<p>But there is no time to lose in confronting our dependence on fossil fuels, both at the COP and everywhere decisions about energy use are being made. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-oil-pushers-scrape-the-barrel-as-critical-climate-talks-begin-in-dubai-218891">COP28: oil pushers scrape the barrel as critical climate talks begin in Dubai</a>
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<p>Despite the dominance of fossil fuel interests in Dubai, COP delegates must demand measures to rapidly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels. Promoting new initiatives <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/">like a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty</a> to prevent further fossil fuel developments would be a good start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Dalby previously received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council. He is a member of the NDP but not involved in its policy formulations, nor is he involved in the COP process. </span></em></p>Tackling the climate crisis starts with breaking our addiction to fuel. A task complicated by fuels essential role in both promoting and threatening global human security.Simon Dalby, Professor Emeritus of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183852023-11-22T16:09:08Z2023-11-22T16:09:08ZEarth in the Anthropocene: how did we get here? Can we limit the damage?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561042/original/file-20230531-21796-ooshjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dans un monde aux ressources finies, les effets des activités humaines sur l’environnement hypothèquent gravement le futur des générations à venir. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2000, Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul J. Crutzen proposed that the epoch known as the Holocene, which started some 11,700 years ago, had reached its end. To describe our current era, he employed the term <em>anthropocene</em>, originated earlier by ecologist Eugene F. Stoermer. Together the <a href="http://www.igbp.net/publications/globalchangemagazine/globalchangemagazine/globalchangenewslettersno4159.5.5831d9ad13275d51c098000309.html">two scientists</a> asserted that humans’ collective influence on the Earth system was so profound that it was altering the planet’s geological and ecological trajectory. According to them, humanity had entered a new geologic era.</p>
<h2>The pivotal juncture of the steam engine</h2>
<p>This declaration prompted considerable debate. The most obvious remains the question of when the Anthropocene actually began. The initial proposal was 1784, when Englishman James Watt patented his steam engine, the defining emblem of the advent of the Industrial Revolution. Indeed, this choice is consistent with the significant rise in the concentrations of several greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, as evidenced by data collected from ice cores.</p>
<p>From the perspective of other scientists, humanity’s recent history has followed a trajectory they describe as the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785">“great acceleration”</a>. From around 1950, the main indicators of the global socioeconomic system and the Earth system began to show a distinct trend of exponentiality.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"605003636700286976"}"></div></p>
<p>Ever since, humanity’s ecological footprint has continually grown, now existing in a whole slew of interconnected forms: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>drastically rapid and intense changes in climate; </p></li>
<li><p>widespread damage to the entire web of life due to humans encroaching on ecosystems and loading them with radically new substances (such as synthetic chemicals, plastics, pesticides, endocrine disruptors, radionuclides and fluorinated gases); </p></li>
<li><p>biodiversity collapse at an unprecedented speed and scale (which some believe will usher in the sixth mass extinction, the previous one being the demise of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago);</p></li>
<li><p>multiple disturbances in biogeochemical cycles (specifically those that govern water, hydrogen and phosphorous).</p></li>
</ul>
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<p><em>This article is brought to you in partnership with <a href="Https://Podcast.Ausha.Co/AFPaudio-surlefil/bientot-sur-la-terre">“Your Planet”</a>, an AFP audio podcast. A creation to explore initiatives in favour of ecological transition, all over the planet. <a href="https://shows.acast.com/654a3366cce18a0012315d73">Subscribe</a></em></p>
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<h2>Who is responsible?</h2>
<p>Another debate regarding the Anthropocene was advanced by Swedish scientists <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019613516291">Andreas Malm and Alf Hornborg</a>. They note that Anthropocene narrative holds the entire human species equally accountable. Even when placing the advent of industry in a few nations as the start of the Anthropocene, many authors assert that the ultimate cause of society’s rising dependence on fossil fuels is part of a gradual evolutionary process, originating with our ancestors’ mastery of fire (at least 400,000 years ago).</p>
<p>Malm and Hornborg also stress that the use of umbrella terms like <em>human beings</em> and <em>humankind</em> assumes that it is an inevitable result of our species’ natural propensity for resource exploitation. For the two researchers, this naturalisation conceals the social dimension of the fossil fuel regime that has spanned the last two centuries.</p>
<p>After all, the human race did not vote unanimously to adopt the coal-fired steam engine or later oil- and gas-based technologies. Equally, the trajectory of our species was not decided by representatives in power, who themselves were not elected based on natural characteristics.</p>
<p>According to Malm and Hornborg, it has actually been social and political conditions that have created, time and again, the possibility for individuals with enough capital to make lucrative investments that contributed to the collapse of our climate. And these individuals have almost invariably been white, middle- and upper-class men.</p>
<h2>Who emits what?</h2>
<p>The Anthropocene as applied to the scale of all humankind overlooks another major point: the role of intraspecies inequality in climate upheaval and ecological imbalance.</p>
<p>Currently, the 10% of the world’s inhabitants who emit the most greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00955-z">48% of all global emissions</a>, whereas the 50% who emit the smallest amount account for a mere 12% of global emissions. Estimates place <a href="http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/ChancelPiketty2015.pdf">the richest 1%</a> among the biggest individual emitters on the planet (mainly coming from the United States, Luxembourg, Singapore and Saudi Arabia), who each emit more than 200 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent annually. At the other end of the spectrum are the poorest individuals from Honduras, Mozambique, Rwanda and Malawi, whose emissions are 2,000 times lower, coming in at around 0.1 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent per head per year.</p>
<p>This close link between wealth and carbon footprint implies a shared, but not equal, responsibility, which is ill-suited to the sweeping categorisation of the Anthropocene.</p>
<h2>From British coal to American oil</h2>
<p>This criticism takes on greater significance when we consider the historical perspective, given that climate disturbance is the result of cumulative GHG emissions. Take the case of the United Kingdom: we might ask why it should be spearheading the fight against climate change when it currently represents only around 1% of global carbon emissions. But this overlooks the fact that the country has contributed to 4.5% of global emissions since 1850, making it the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/">eighth-biggest polluter</a> in history.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259826/original/file-20190219-43270-17l71bs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuel use is responsible for emitting CO₂, the primary cause of global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/GrmwVnVSSdU">Zbynek Burival/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In terms of the exponential acceleration of the trajectory of the Earth system over the past 200 years, contributions have widely differed among the nations of the world and their inhabitants. As respective stalwarts of global economic development during the 19th and 20th centuries, the United Kingdom and United States now owe a monumental <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30196-0/fulltext">ecological debt</a> toward other nations. Coal fuelled the United Kingdom’s endeavours of imperial domination, while this same role was (and continues to be) played by oil in the United States.</p>
<h2>Survival or otherwise</h2>
<p>Clarity is important when it comes to the thorny issue of each nation’s historical contribution to climate shift, so it is worth bearing in mind that the GHG emissions and overall environmental impact of a given country or person are chiefly determined by the rate at which they consume goods and services. By and large, it is unrealistic for those living in rich countries to think that they can “live green”. Furthermore, for all the quantitative data at our disposal, there is nothing that indicates either the absolute necessity – or, by contrast, the utter futility – of measuring a kilogram of carbon dioxide in the same way for everyone across the board.</p>
<p>For some, emitting slightly more greenhouse gases comes down to a question of survival, perhaps representing the fuel required to cook a portion of rice or build a roof. For others, it amounts only to purchasing yet another gadget for a few more hours of entertainment. Some argue that reducing the world’s population would be an effective means of combating climate disruption (and all other the environmental disturbances), but a simpler solution would be to prevent the ultra-rich from continuing to pursue their shamelessly climate-destroying lifestyles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280040/original/file-20190618-118543-1d2mp0t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yachts in Cannes harbour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/614085">Pxhere</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By constructing the abstract notion of a uniformly affected “humankind”, the dominant discourse around the Anthropocene suggests that the responsibility is shared equally by all of us. In the Amazon, the Yanomami and Achuar peoples get by without a single gram of fossil fuel, surviving through hunting, fishing, foraging and subsistence agriculture. Should they feel as responsible for climate change and biodiversity collapse as the world’s richest industrialists, bankers and corporate solicitors?</p>
<p>If the Earth really has entered a new geological epoch, the responsibilities of each nation and individual differ too greatly across space and time for us to consider “the human species” as a suitable abstraction for shouldering the burden of guilt.</p>
<p>Quite apart from all these debates and disputes, climate disruption and biodiversity loss call for immediate, tangible action on a massive scale. There is no shortage of efforts and initiatives, with some now being implemented across the globe, but which ones are actually working?</p>
<h2>Just how useful is the Paris Agreement?</h2>
<p>In 2015, the COP21 was held at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris.</p>
<p>The resulting agreement was hailed as a watershed moment, marking the first time that 196 countries committed to decarbonising the global economy. In practice, each state was free to define its national strategy for the energy transition. All the countries party to the agreement must then present their “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) to the other signatories. These NDCs are collated to form the expected trajectory for global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>The issue with such a strategy (assuming that it is actually enforced) is that the numbers are insufficient. Even if the countries delivered on all their promises, human-induced GHG emissions would still bring about a temperature rise of around 2.7°C by the end of the century.</p>
<p>If we maintain the current momentum for the target to limit the temperature rise to 2°C, we will fall short of by <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/40932/EGR2022_ESEN.pdf">12 billion tons of annual CO₂ equivalent (Gt CO₂-eq/year)</a>. This deficit climbs to 20 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/year if we aim for a maximum rise of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Under the framework of the 2015 Paris Agreement, signatory states can theoretically amend their commitments every five years to strengthen their ambitions. The fact is, however, that emissions have continued to rise in virtually every signatory country (when calculated by consumption rather than production).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1995%2C1315&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522173/original/file-20230420-1738-jeeu7o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The French Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development, Laurent Fabius, ratifies the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cop Paris/Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although the Paris Agreement was presented as a diplomatic success, it must be conceded as another hollow addition to the litany of commitments that prove ineffective in the face of climate disruption. Actually, suspicions should have been cast from the moment that the text was ratified, given that it does not mention the phrase “fossil fuels” even once. The goal was to avoid ruffling any feathers (among public or private actors), and to get as many states as possible on board with signing an agreement that, in the end, offers no solution to the gravest emergency facing humankind.</p>
<p>At the time of the Paris Agreement’s signature in 2015, if humanity were to have any reasonable hope of limiting global warming to 2°C, the cumulative volume of CO<sub>2</sub> that we could have afforded to emit was no more than 1,000 Gt. Taking into account the last five years of emissions, this <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9">carbon budget</a> has already dropped to 800 Gt. This is equal to one third of the 2,420 Gt of CO<sub>2</sub> emitted between 1850 and 2020, including 1,680 Gt from fossil fuel burning (and cement production) and 740 Gt from land use (primarily deforestation).</p>
<p>And with annual emissions at around 40 Gt, this carbon budget will plummet at a breakneck pace, reaching zero within the next two decades if nothing changes.</p>
<h2>Could a fossil fuel lockdown solve the problem?</h2>
<p>To reach these targets, humans – especially the wealthiest among them – must consent not to use what has traditionally been seen as the source of their material comforts.</p>
<p>Since fossil fuel reserves have the potential for truly colossal emissions, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016">a third of the world’s oil reserves, half of its gas reserves and over 80% of its coal reserves</a> must remain unexploited. Increasing hydrocarbon production, whether from coal mines or oil and gas deposits, or from the exploitation of new fossil fuel resources (e.g., in the Arctic), would therefore sabotage efforts required to limit climate change.</p>
<p>On top of this, the longer we take to start seriously decarbonising the global economy, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02351-2">the more drastic the necessary action will be</a>. If we had started effectively limiting global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions back in 2018, it would have been enough for us to reduce emissions by 5% until 2100 to cap the temperature rise at 2°C. Embarking on this gargantuan task in 2020 would have required an annual reduction of 6%. But waiting around until 2025 would entail a reduction of 10% per year.</p>
<p>Faced with this emergency, there have been calls in recent years for <a href="https://fossilfueltreaty.org/cop27">a treaty to ban the spread of fossil fuels</a>. “All” we need to do is make everyone agree to stop using the stuff that has powered the global economy for the last century and a half!</p>
<p>To date, this treaty has been signed only by island nations (such as Vanuatu, Fiji and the Solomon Islands) since these are the most vulnerable to climate collapse. Conversely, hydrocarbon-producing countries and major importing countries are yet to act in this regard. The reason for this is simple: the initiative offers no financial arrangements to compensate hydrocarbon-rich countries, whose governments do not want to risk losing potential GDP.</p>
<p>But if we want to stop the exploitation of fossil fuel reserves, this is precisely the type of compensation that must be offered for an international agreement to achieve meaningful results.</p>
<h2>The crucial role of financiers</h2>
<p>So, are we done for? Not necessarily. One recent <a href="https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/what-happens-when-banks-divest-from-coal-climate-change">study</a> offers a glimmer of hope. Two researchers from the Harvard Business School have shown that there are promising results in the decision by certain banks to pull investments from the coal sector.</p>
<p>The studied sample of data between 2009 and 2021 demonstrates that when backers of coal companies decide to embrace strong disinvestment policies, these companies reduce their borrowings by 25% compared to others unaffected by such strategies. This capital rationing appears markedly to yield reduced CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, as “disinvested” companies are likelier to shut down some of their facilities.</p>
<p>Could this same approach be applied to the oil and gas sector? In theory, yes, but it would be trickier to implement.</p>
<p>For figures in the coal industry, options are limited when it comes to obtaining alternative sources of debt financing if existing ones are withdrawn. Indeed, there are so few banks that actually facilitate transactions involving coal – and relationships are so deeply entrenched – that bankers inevitably hold great sway over who should be financed in this sector. This is not the case in the oil and gas industry, which enjoys a greater diversity of funding options. In any case, all this goes to show that the finance sector has a defining role to play in our transition toward zero carbon.</p>
<p>But it would be delusional to believe that financiers are going to start magically steering the global economy along an eco-friendlier path.</p>
<p>Capitalism dictates a growth imperative that is quite simply nonsensical in a world of finite resources. If we are to stop living beyond the ecological means of our Earth system, we must completely redefine both what we stand for and what we are prepared to give up.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a project between The Conversation France and AFP audio, supported financially by the European Journalism Centre, as part of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation “Solutions Journalism Accelerator” <a href="https://ejc.net/news/the-second-group-selected-in-the-solutions-journalism-accelerator-programme">“Solutions Journalism Accelerator”</a> initiative. AFP and The Conversation France have maintained their editorial independence at every stage of the project.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Court is a member of the "Energy & Prosperity" Chair and a research associate at the Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain (LIED, Université Paris Cité). The opinions expressed in these pages are those of the author alone, and in no way reflect the views of the institutions with which he is affiliated.</span></em></p>Humanity’s ecological footprint takes many different and interconnected forms that are all getting worse.Victor Court, Économiste, chercheur associé au Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des énergies de demain, Université Paris CitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130462023-11-14T21:54:56Z2023-11-14T21:54:56ZEffective climate action requires us to abandon viewing our efforts as a ‘sacrifice’<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/effective-climate-action-requires-us-to-abandon-viewing-our-efforts-as-a-sacrifice" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>If you’re like most people, you’ve been taught that climate action is a sacrifice. Cutting emissions from fossil fuels, you’ve probably been told, is the economy-squeezing price we must pay for a livable planet. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1470594X231196432">our research</a> explains why we should look at this issue through a different frame.</p>
<p>Frames help us think about complex issues. They suggest starting assumptions, problems to be solved and point towards possible solutions. Sacrifice frames begin with the assumption that climate action is a burdensome cost.</p>
<p>Given that assumption, it naturally follows that climate action is all about convincing people to make sacrifices. But scholars <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21550085.2020.1848192">have criticized</a> sacrifice frames for being bad at motivating action. Tell a person to sacrifice, and they’re likely to give you a list of reasons why they shouldn’t have to do it.</p>
<p>We suggest a different approach. Instead of explaining why you should sacrifice for the climate, we explain why climate action isn’t a sacrifice. We also suggest an alternative, more hopeful frame that fits with current science.</p>
<h2>Three crumbling frames</h2>
<p>One frame holds that wealthy countries have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266267120000449">little to fear from climate change</a> but much to lose economically from reduced emissions. Given this frame, the problem is to <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691137759/climate-change-justice">persuade wealthy countries to sacrifice for poorer ones</a>, which are more vulnerable. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001">droughts in Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2822%2900067-5">wildfires in Canada</a> and record-breaking severe <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202306">weather in the United States</a> show that nowhere is safe from climate change.</p>
<p>Another frame insists that the climate changes too slowly for emissions cuts to make a difference in our lifetimes. Current generations pay now, the thinking goes, but all the benefits go to the future. According to this perspective, the challenge is to persuade people to not “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/8312">pass the buck</a>” to unborn generations.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-language-can-turn-down-the-temperature-of-heated-climate-change-discourse-210865">How language can turn down the temperature of heated climate change discourse</a>
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<p>Yet research finds that the cooling effects of mitigation would start <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1554-z">within two decades</a> from the beginning of a fossil fuel phaseout. Many co-benefits of mitigation, such as improved air quality, are also immediate. According to a recent estimate, air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills approximately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754">8.7 million people annually</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/tragedy-of-the-commons">the tragedy of the commons</a> says that, despite the collective benefits of reining in climate change, climate action is always a net cost for each country, whatever other countries decide to do. </p>
<p>In this picture, self-interest leads governments to drag their feet and insist that others pick up the tab for cutting emissions. That suggests the problem is to prevent “free-riding” and to encourage sacrifice for the common good.</p>
<p>However, a transition to renewable energy is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">an investment</a> likely to yield greater economic savings the sooner we start. A green transition has upfront costs. But the estimated average payback time of a transition to renewables by 2050 from energy savings alone is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2EE00722C">only about 5.5 years</a>, and less than a year if co-benefits like air quality are taken into account.</p>
<p>Each of the frames canvassed above contains a kernel of truth. Disparities of vulnerability tied to wealth, inertia in the climate system and challenges to collective action are all real. The mistake lies in thinking that climate action is a sacrifice.</p>
<p>On the contrary, switching to renewable energy can generate economic savings and improve health today. We propose a frame that fits these facts.</p>
<h2>Tipping games</h2>
<p>In a tipping game, players can win a shared prize by making individual contributions to a common pot. But there’s a catch. Each player’s contribution passes a rebate along to those who contribute later.</p>
<p>That means a tipping game has a tipping point. That happens when enough people contribute so that further contributors enjoy a net savings. After that, people have an incentive to put their money in even if they don’t care about the collective good.</p>
<p>Falling costs of renewables can be seen as a tipping game. Early actions to promote the adoption of solar power, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.060">Germany’s feed-in tariffs</a> in 2000, led to increased demand and <a href="https://www.routledge.com/How-Solar-Energy-Became-Cheap-A-Model-for-Low-Carbon-Innovation/Nemet/p/book/9780367136598">lower prices</a>. The more solar panels people bought, the more efficiently manufacturers learned to make them and the greater incentive for performance-improving innovations.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-must-stop-treating-climate-disasters-like-unexpected-humanitarian-crises-216153">Canada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises</a>
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<p>One tipping point arrived around 2014 when wind and solar power <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/business/energy-environment/solar-and-wind-energy-start-to-win-on-price-vs-conventional-fuels.html">started being cheaper</a> than electricity from coal and gas. </p>
<p>But a transition to renewables will necessitate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1870097">crossing tipping points</a> in other sectors, like transportation and steel manufacturing. Given the risks a green transition poses for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00934-2">fossil fuel exporters</a>, this process is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.09.004">matter of politics</a> as well as economics and technology.</p>
<p>One might rightfully point out that there’s more to climate action than renewable energy. What do cheaper solar panels have to do with deforestation, for example? But we suggest that tipping games can also be a helpful frame here. </p>
<p>The largest cause of deforestation is <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation">animal agriculture</a>, especially clearing land to graze cattle and to grow soy beans for livestock feed. Reducing meat consumption and transitioning to mostly plant-based diets is also <a href="https://eatforum.org/content/uploads/2019/07/EAT-Lancet_Commission_Summary_Report.pdf">widely recognized</a> as a positive from a health and climate perspective. </p>
<p>In this context, tipping dynamics may be more centred on policy diffusion and social norms than technological innovations. Policies that effectively reduce <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2021.105739">meat consumption</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106582">or deforestation</a> in one place can be modelled elsewhere. Evolving social norms would also be likely to play an important role in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0331-1">widespread transition towards reduced meat consumption</a>.</p>
<p>Tipping games offer hope for climate action. They provide a simple model for understanding the growth of renewable energy that is relevant to other aspects of tackling climate change. And they explain how solutions to collective problems don’t require everyone to become a self-sacrificing saint.</p>
<p>Changing how we think about climate action just might change what we do. As we look forward to this year’s COP28 climate meeting, we hope both government officials and members of the public will understand these risks and grab these opportunities. Every action has the chance of helping us tip ourselves away from danger.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Steel received support from Canada's Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) under the SSHRC Insight Grant Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>C. Tyler DesRoches received support from Canada's Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) under the SSHRC Insight Grant Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kian Mintz-Woo received support from Canada's Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) under the SSHRC Insight Grant Program.</span></em></p>Climate action should be framed not as a sacrifice but as an investment that can generate economic savings and improve human and ecosystem health today.Daniel Steel, Associate Professor, School of Population and Public Health, University of British ColumbiaC. Tyler DesRoches, Associate Professor of Sustainability and Human Well-Being and Associate Professor of Philosophy, Arizona State UniversityKian Mintz-Woo, Lecturer in Philosophy, Environmental Research Institute, University College CorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137082023-09-28T19:45:32Z2023-09-28T19:45:32ZTemporary carbon storage in forests has climate value — but we need to get the accounting right<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/temporary-carbon-storage-in-forests-has-climate-value-but-we-need-to-get-the-accounting-right" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Forests and other natural carbon reservoirs play an important role in slowing and potentially reversing the effects of climate change. </p>
<p>But any carbon stored in nature is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005">vulnerable to either natural or human-caused disturbances</a>. This is one reason why offsetting fossil fuel emissions with natural carbon storage is problematic. If the carbon is lost to the atmosphere, then the offset potential is also negated after it has already been claimed and accounted for. </p>
<p>Current accounting mechanisms for natural carbon storage do not adequately deal with the risk of loss due to disturbances. Typically, carbon offsets and removal credits focus only on the amount of carbon stored, and assume that this carbon will remain in storage indefinitely. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-carbon-offsetting-isnt-working-heres-how-to-fix-it-192131">Climate change: carbon offsetting isn't working – here's how to fix it</a>
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<p>But what if we measured and tracked both the amount and time of carbon storage? As we show in our new research published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5"><em>Nature Communications</em></a>, this can be done using the tonne-year metric — defined as the amount of carbon storage multiplied by the number of years that it remains stored.</p>
<h2>Temporary is not permanent</h2>
<p><a href="https://carbonplan.org/research/ton-year-explainer">Tonne-years have so far been used</a> to measure the equivalency of temporary to permanent carbon storage. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102840">Previous researchers have argued that</a> as few as 30 tonne-years of temporary storage could be seen as equivalent to one tonne of permanent storage. But from a climate perspective, temporary and permanent storage are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">very different things</a> and are not interchangeable. </p>
<p>Moreover, offsetting a permanent emission from fossil fuels with tonne-years of temporary storage is not climate neutral. Offsetting with temporary storage will in fact result in more long-term warming when the stored carbon is lost back to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The same is true of carbon-removal credits that are included in many <a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/net-zero">corporate net zero strategies</a>. Carbon removal that leads to temporary storage will not achieve net-zero emissions if that act is credited as equivalent to an emission that has a permanent climate impact.</p>
<p>But any carbon storage in nature does have climate value, even if it ends up being temporary. Whether preserved in existing reservoirs (for example, via avoided deforestation) or restored in new reservoirs (for example, via reforestation), more carbon stored in land ecosystems means less carbon in the atmosphere and consequently less climate warming. Furthermore, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">temporary storage has the potential to decrease peak warming</a>, if combined with aggressive fossil fuel emissions abatement. </p>
<p>We need a new way to account for temporary carbon storage in a way that reflects its actual climate value.</p>
<h2>Measuring carbon storage time</h2>
<p>What if temporary carbon storage was measured and tracked as an independent contribution to climate mitigation, rather than as a fossil fuel emissions offset or removal credit? In this scenario, the tonne-year metric could be used to correctly measure the climate benefit of temporary storage.</p>
<p>Immediate loss of the stored carbon due to wildfire or deforestation would of course negate its value, resulting in no climate benefit.</p>
<p>If the carbon is retained in storage for some period of time (by preventing deforestation at that location, for example), the climate benefit of that forest would be retained during the period of storage. This benefit would then be reversed when the carbon is lost to disturbance. If no further action is taken in this case, the climate effect of the temporary storage would again be negated. </p>
<p>However, this loss of carbon could be mitigated by the preservation of an equivalent amount of carbon at a different location, which would then maintain a constant level of climate benefit. Carbon at the disturbed location could also be restored via reforestation, but this would not attain the same climate case, representing sustained climate benefit). </p>
<p>If the amount of carbon storage decreases, this will cause tonne-years to increase by a smaller amount each year (slower rate case, representing decreasing climate benefit). If carbon storage increases, either via forest growth of via expansion of protected forest area, this will generate a larger annual increase in tonne-years (faster rate case, representing increasing climate benefit).</p>
<h2>Tracking the benefits</h2>
<p>All of these cases can be described by a single quantity: the rate of change of total tonne-years in the system. </p>
<p>If the number of tonne-years does not increase with time, this means there is no carbon storage, and therefore no climate benefit. </p>
<p>If tonne-years increase at a constant rate, this represents a sustained amount of carbon storage and sustained climate benefit. If this rate of increase of tonne-years slows, it indicates that previous climate benefits are being lost or eroded. But if tonne-years increase at an faster rate, this means that total carbon storage and consequent climate benefit is also increasing with time.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/worthless-forest-carbon-offsets-risk-exacerbating-climate-change-211862">'Worthless' forest carbon offsets risk exacerbating climate change</a>
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<p>In our research paper, we quantify this climate benefit as an amount of avoided temperature change that can either be sustained, increased or eroded over time. We show further that tonne-years of carbon storage are proportional to degree-years of avoided warming, which represent a running total of the avoided warming caused by temporary carbon storage. </p>
<p>Consequently, tonne-years of carbon storage can be equated to a meaningful physical climate quantity that can be monitored based on the rate of change of tonne-years over time.</p>
<p>If reimagined in this way, tonne-year accounting could be used to measure and track the actual climate benefit of natural carbon storage, without requiring a guarantee of permanence. This could help to unlock the potential of nature-based carbon storage as a climate mitigation strategy and not just as an alternative to fossil fuel emissions reductions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>H. Damon Matthews receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Microsoft Corporation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Koch works for Trove Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Luers has received funding from Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. She holds a position at Microsoft as the global lead for sustainability science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Zickfeld receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Microsoft Corporation</span></em></p>Tracking both the amount of carbon and the time that it remains stored is key to unlocking the potential of nature-based carbon storage as a climate mitigation strategy.H. Damon Matthews, Professor and Concordia University Research Chair in Climate Science and Sustainability, Concordia UniversityAlexander Koch, Head of Geospatial at Trove Research, University of Hong KongAmy Luers, Affiliate Professor, Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia UniversityKirsten Zickfeld, Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083452023-07-16T11:56:56Z2023-07-16T11:56:56ZPollution timebombs: Contaminated wetlands are ticking towards ignition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534433/original/file-20230627-29982-kxs94r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=820%2C20%2C3780%2C1669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flaming peatland fire in Alberta, Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wetlands across the globe have long served as natural repositories for humanity’s toxic legacy, absorbing and retaining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.03.004">hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of pollution</a>. </p>
<p>These swampy vaults have quietly been trapping air and water pollution for thousands of years, protecting the world from some of the worst effects of lead, mercury, copper, nickel and other poisonous materials. </p>
<p>Now, however, a combination of human disruptions and ever increasing wildfires threaten to open these vaults, unleashing their long dormant toxic contents upon the world. </p>
<h2>Threats to releasing toxic legacies</h2>
<p>The soil in many wetlands is composed of dead and decaying vegetation known as peat. Peat accumulates because perpetually sopping wetland conditions prevent the complete decomposition of dead vegetation. As these deposits accumulate, they form peatlands. </p>
<p>For centuries, peat has been drained, dried and extracted for heating fuel where wood is scarce. Though humans have long burned bricks of peat in their homes, climate change and wetland draining are drying entire wetlands, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01657-w">transforming them into perfect fuel for huge smoky wildfires</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Stacks of dried peat logs to be used for warmth and cooking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Peat logs have long been used for warmth and cooking in communities across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Colin McCarter)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Centuries of fallout from industrial processes such as smelting has deposited toxic metals in wetlands hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from their point of origin. Human and industrial wastewater has, in places, added to this burden. </p>
<p>Wetlands have absorbed and stored these contaminants, holding them back from vulnerable aquatic ecosystems and saving humans from ingesting them. </p>
<p>Peat has a tremendous ability to capture and retain toxic metals by binding the metals to the peat itself through a process called adsorption. Once bound, the toxic metals are immobilized and pose little threat to the surrounding environment unless the peatland is disturbed, like from a wildfire.</p>
<h2>Wetlands and fire</h2>
<p>Human activities such as road building and resource extraction have seriously disrupted wetland ecosystems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa136">leaving drained wetlands vulnerable to fire</a>, as Canadians saw in the catastrophic Fort McMurray, Alta., wildfire of 2016.</p>
<p>As climate change and human actions further degrade wetlands, the resulting wildfires threaten to return humanity’s toxic legacy. This cycle carries frightening implications for the health of people and the environment. </p>
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<img alt="Copious amounts of smoke produced from a smouldering peat fire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fire burns away the peat as the resulting smoke is carried on the breeze.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In 2015, Indonesia recorded about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html">35,000 excess deaths after a major peatland fire</a>. Meanwhile, Canada and the United States are far from immune from exposure to peat fire smoke. In early June 2023, cities as far away as Washington, D.C., and New York were blanketed in thick smoke from peat fires in northern Canada, which is home to many of the world’s peatlands.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate change is accelerating the drying of peatlands everywhere, turning their huge stores of carbon into a carbon burden. Furthermore, as concentrated pollutants build up in wetlands, the accumulation of toxic metals is killing plants that act as their natural lid, allowing moisture to escape and speeding the conversion of more wetlands to tinderboxes. </p>
<p>Once ignited, peatland fires are difficult to contain as they can smoulder for weeks, months or even years. They produce copious amounts of smoke and ash, filling the air with microscopic particles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smoke filled peatland forest from smouldering fires lurking just below the surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peatland fires can smoulder underground for months re-emerging under the right conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even without metal pollution, these airborne particles can cause severe illness and death. Making a bad situation worse, toxic metals once safely stored in wetlands bind to these airborne particles and spread everywhere.</p>
<h2>Restoring wetlands</h2>
<p>As with many global environmental issues, it is easy to feel helpless to control such a huge and complex problem. Fortunately, nature-based solutions can have a substantial positive impact on keeping this toxic legacy from being released. </p>
<p>We can restore drying or dried-out wetlands back to their original state as functional ecosystems through, at the most basic level, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">preventing them from draining down canals and other human infrastructure</a>. Indeed, even without further intervention, re-wetting wetlands can reduce their risk of wildfire ignition. However, restoration must be managed carefully, to avoid flushing toxic metals from wetlands into neighbouring streams, rivers and lakes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-in-smoke-human-activities-are-fuelling-wildfires-that-burn-essential-carbon-sequestering-peatlands-202816">Up in smoke: Human activities are fuelling wildfires that burn essential carbon-sequestering peatlands</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To preserve wetland plants and return ecosystem functionality without releasing the stored toxic legacy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">we need to bring back fire-resistant mosses such as <em>Sphagnum</em></a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106874">Recent research shows that old-fashioned peat “transplants” may be effective</a>, though new restoration techniques in contaminated wetlands need to be further developed and tested. </p>
<p>Although ecosystem restoration can be costly in terms of time and money, actively restoring wetlands appears to be our best chance to defuse the ticking time-bomb that our pollution vaults have become. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acddfc">Preventing a pollution explosion demands urgent global research, investment and action</a>. The cost of doing nothing will certainly be much greater.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin McCarter receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Nipissing University, and the Canada Research Chair program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Waddington receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Blazing Star Environmental, McMaster University, Ganawenim Meshkiki, and Henvey Inlet Wind LP.</span></em></p>Peatlands safely store hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of humanity’s toxic legacy but climate change and physical disturbances are putting these pollution vaults, and us, at risk.Colin McCarter, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Arts and Science, Nipissing UniversityMike Waddington, Professor, School of Earth, Environment & Society, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030912023-07-05T15:19:40Z2023-07-05T15:19:40ZCan the boreal forest be used to concretely fight climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519410/original/file-20230404-15-3fzimf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What strategies are the best to make forests more resilient and better adapted to new climate conditions?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and deforestation are the causes of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">global climate warming exceeding 1°C over the past 100 years</a>. At the current rate, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">this warming will most likely climb to 2°C before 2100</a>, causing climate disruption around the world. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>To address this threat, all means for reducing emissions and increasing global CO2 removals <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">must be implemented rapidly and in a sustained manner</a>. Towards that end, halting deforestation and significant <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/afforestation">afforestation</a> are widely recognized as effective and inexpensive tools for combatting climate change, since trees capture CO2 and store it in the wood, roots and soil. </p>
<p>This is what prompted the Canadian government to include planting two billion trees between 2020 and 2030 on its list of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/actions-healthy-environment-economy.html">actions to be taken to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>But is the solution really that simple? Can planting trees help us solve the climate crisis? </p>
<p>We are professor-researchers in the Sciences fondamentales Department at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC). We are working within the research infrastructure <a href="http://carboneboreal.uqac.ca">Carbone boréal</a> carbon offset program to try to answer this question.</p>
<h2>From global to local</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="person measures a small fir tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On what land can new trees reasonably be planted while avoiding land use conflicts?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prospective studies on the evolution of forests in a context of climate change are based on models applied to plots of land larger than 100 square kilometres. This area is roughly the equivalent of half of the area of Québec’s Île d'Orléans, or a little less than a quarter of the island of Montréal.</p>
<p>But what happens on a smaller scale, depending on local characteristics and the tree species actually present in the stands? How will the trees react to the new climatic conditions? How will the forest disturbance regime evolve? What strategies can be recommended to make forests more resilient and better adapted to new climate conditions? What is the likelihood that the projected additional carbon stocks will be available in 2050? On what land can new trees be reasonably planted while avoiding land use conflicts? </p>
<p>These are the kinds of questions that motivated a team of UQAC researchers to launch the Carbone boréal project in 2008.</p>
<h2>An original infrastructure</h2>
<p>In the boreal forest, there are large areas (estimated to be 7 per cent of the exploitable boreal forest in Québec) that have low tree densities. This characteristic qualifies them as non-forests, according to the <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/ca9825en/ca9825en.pdf">definition of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)</a>. </p>
<p>These open areas, where more than three-quarters of the vegetation consists of lichens and Ericaceae, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/04-1621">are the result of successive natural disturbances</a>, such as forest fires or insect pests. Because of a lack of seeds and degraded soil conditions, these non-forests do not re-densify over time. Indeed, depending on the type of fire that burns on the surface or deep down, the organic matter of the soil will be preserved or completely burnt. That creates less favourable conditions for seeds to become established as seedlings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Non-forests are open territories, where more than three-quarters of the vegetation consists of lichens and Ericaceae, which are the result of successive natural disturbances.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This process of natural deforestation can be reversed through interventions such as <a href="https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/86/1/91/535105">scarification (shallow soil turning)</a>, either followed by tree planting, or not. </p>
<p><a href="https://carboneboreal.uqac.ca/en/home/">Carbone boréal</a> is a research infrastructure that is unique in the world for its objectives, approach and funding. It was created using three hypotheses: </p>
<ul>
<li>it is possible to plant trees in areas considered unproductive for forestry and to grow forests there;</li>
<li>the amount of carbon stored in these new habitats is greater than it would be if this action weren’t taken; and </li>
<li>this additional carbon uptake can be quantified and offered to the public as a credible tool to be used to offset greenhouse gas emissions.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>After 15 years of research and over 1.5 million trees planted and verified, these three hypotheses have been proven and the plantings carried out are beginning to answer new research questions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="small fir plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It is possible to plant trees in areas considered unproductive for forestry and grow forests there.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Questions and answers</h2>
<p>Field measurements taken in our plantations every five years have demonstrated <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112722005953">an unexpected growth performance of jack pine and tamarack in the early years of growth, as well as a higher rate of carbon fixation than predicted by models</a>. </p>
<p>We also demonstrated the importance of site selection in optimizing carbon sequestration and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/1/59">developed new equations to assess tree biomass using non-destructive measurements</a>. Further work is underway to quantify soil carbon loss from scarification and net additional carbon accumulation over 20 years. Starting from the perspective of a circular economy, we are investigating the fertilization potential of industrial byproducts, such as paper mill biosolids, and the potential productivity and resilience gains of plantations with assortments of species. </p>
<p>A key concern raised by climate models is how afforestation in the boreal zone actually affects the climate. Although boreal forests absorb CO2 (which has a cooling effect on climate), they decrease the fraction of solar energy that is directly reflected back to space compared to open areas. This phenomenon could create local warming and reduce the overall climate benefit of the additional CO2 capture by the trees. But what is the real magnitude of this effect? Does it vary according to latitude, tree species and plantation age? Our team will tackle these questions in the winter of 2023.</p>
<p>In 2024, with more than two million trees planted in research facilities on public and private land, Carbone boréal will account for an area of 1,000 hectares (10 square kilometres, five times the size of Mount Royal Park in Montréal) dedicated to long-term research for UQAC. These trees will capture more than 4,000 tons of CO2 each year by 2030. </p>
<p>This is a concrete and original way to better understand the role of the boreal forest on climate change and to experiment with ways to adapt it to its new conditions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203091/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claude Villeneuve has received funding from MFFP, MAPAQ, FRQNT, NRC, etc.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxime Paré has received funding from several organizations such NSERC and FRQNT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Faubert has received funding from Mitacs, MAPAQ, MFFP, etc.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Marty ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Can planting trees help us solve the climate crisis? Probably, but to what extent?Claude Villeneuve, Professeur titulaire Chaire en éco-conseil spécialiste des changements climatiques, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Charles Marty, Adjunct professor, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Maxime Paré, Professeur chercheur en agriculture nordique, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Patrick Faubert, Professor - Industrial ecology and climate change mitigation, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072882023-06-29T21:40:59Z2023-06-29T21:40:59ZCanada takes first step to regulate toxic ‘forever chemicals.’ But is it enough?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534708/original/file-20230628-23-wm266s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C231%2C3794%2C2333&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">PFAS or 'forever chemicals' are found in fire-fighting foam, food packaging, waterproof cosmetics, non-stick pans, stain- and water-resistant fabrics and carpeting, cleaning products and paints.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada recently took its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/evaluating-existing-substances/draft-state-per-polyfluoroalkyl-substances-report.html">first bold step</a> to regulate the production and use of a large group of chemicals called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a family of environmentally persistent and toxic chemical compounds.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A picture of the various everyday items PFAS is found in." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=628&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534514/original/file-20230628-24-49zwmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=789&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Various consumer products and industrial processes contain PFAS for their water and stain-resistant properties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These chemicals are found in food packaging, waterproof cosmetics, non-stick pans, stain- and water-resistant fabrics and carpeting, cleaning products, paints and fire-fighting foams. </p>
<p>The Canadian government released a report detailing the risks of PFAS exposure and potential management options. This report, which advocates for the regulation of the thousands of PFAS as a whole, will directly influence future regulations and policies surrounding their production and use. This contrasts to previous policy initiatives that <a href="https://chm.pops.int/TheConvention/ThePOPs/TheNewPOPs/tabid/2511/Default.aspx">targeted PFAS individually</a>. </p>
<p>As environmental health researchers, we believe that the government needs to regulate and, eventually, stop the continued release of persistent toxic PFAS into the environment and also prevent the creation of any toxic replacements. </p>
<h2>How do PFAS affect us?</h2>
<p>PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, are used in various consumer products and industrial processes for their water and stain-resistant properties. Recent reports even show the presence of <a href="https://psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/fracking-with-forever-chemicals.pdf">PFAS in the fluids used during hydraulic fracturing</a>, a process used to extract oil and gas from soil beds with low permeability. </p>
<p>The widespread use of these chemicals can be attributed to the strong chemical bond between the carbon and fluorine atoms that make up the backbone of PFAS. The bonds create an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D0EM00291G">impermeable film</a>, preventing grease from seeping through food packaging or water going through clothes.</p>
<p>However, that <a href="https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/EM/C8EM00515J">strong bond</a> also leads to PFAS taking years, even decades, to break down in the environment. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JKg7Mr9M3CQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The strong bond between PFAS atoms leads to these chemicals taking years, even decades, to break down in the environment.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once in the environment, they accumulate in water bodies — particularly in marine species. They get <a href="https://epa.figshare.com/articles/presentation/Literature_review_of_PFAS_bioaccumulation_data/13120190">more and more concentrated</a> as they go up the food chain. For example, larger, older fish tend to contain higher concentrations of PFAS compared to smaller, younger fish. </p>
<p>In addition to being extremely persistent, PFAS are toxic to our bodies. They have been implicated in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4890">liver toxicity, immune system dysfunction, increased blood cholesterol, changes to thyroid hormones, cancer and birth defects</a>. </p>
<p>While there are still gaps in our understanding on how PFAS cause disease, the industry has been aware of PFAS’ toxic effects on health and the environment <a href="https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/articles/10.5334/aogh.4013">since the 1970s</a> — almost half a decade before the public health community. Despite this, they continued to produce PFAS and spread their application to more products in the market. </p>
<p>Because of their ubiquitous use, these forever chemicals are now found in every corner of the globe. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-016-0143-y">Canadian study</a> found that at least 65 per cent of infants were exposed to PFAS in the womb. </p>
<h2>Regulating PFAS</h2>
<p>Some PFAS are strictly regulated. </p>
<p>Three of these “legacy PFAS” — perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) — are included in the list of persistent pollutants under the <a href="http://www.pops.int/TheConvention/ThePOPs/TheNewPOPs/tabid/2511/Default.aspx">Stockholm Convention</a>, ratified by Canada.</p>
<p>Only a few exemptions are allowed for their production and use by the 152 member countries (not including the United States which did not ratify the convention). Canada also regulates another subset of PFAS called long-chain perfluorocarboxylic acids. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Equipment used to test for PFAS in drinking water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534710/original/file-20230628-21-6tijpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists have been calling for the regulation of PFAS as a chemical class rather than wasting time examining each compound individually.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Cory Morse/The Grand Rapids Press via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, <a href="https://chemtrust.org/pfas/#:%7E:">there are over 4,700 PFAS</a>, and the Canadian and international regulations in place only cover a tiny fraction of the forever chemicals in the market. </p>
<p>Scientists have been calling for the regulation of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00255">PFAS as a chemical class</a>, rather than wasting time examining each compound individually, as industry continues to produce and use new forever chemicals.</p>
<h2>Populations at highest risk</h2>
<p>As public health scientists try to catch up with the industry’s unrestrained chemical production, some populations are put at heightened risk of PFAS exposure, including firefighters, pregnant women and Arctic Indigenous populations. </p>
<p>As emphasized in our report, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.136797">Inuit living in Nunavik have some of the highest PFAS concentrations</a> worldwide. Some compounds measured in their blood were up to seven times higher than the concentrations measured in the rest of the Canadian population. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="PFAS concentrations in Nunavik versus Canada" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534851/original/file-20230629-15-u5utdu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research supported by the Northern Contaminants Program and Sentinel North has found that PFAS concentrations in Nunavik are much higher than the rest of Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Amira Aker)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is because PFAS used in southern latitudes get transported north by atmospheric and water currents. Once in the Arctic, they enter the food web, leading to exceptionally high concentrations of PFAS in some wildlife, including species that are part of the Inuit traditional diet. </p>
<p>Living off the land and harvesting local species like marine and land mammals, fish and birds are integral to Inuit culture, food security and food preferences. This environmental injustice forces Inuit to think twice about consuming the nutritious foods from their own land and essential to their traditions. </p>
<h2>Towards better regulation</h2>
<p>The Canadian report also shines the spotlight on the need for studying PFAS mixtures. We are all exposed to various PFAS at once, be it through the use of multiple PFAS in a single product or our overall exposure to various PFAS from various sources. </p>
<p>Yet, we know little about the impact of being exposed to multiple PFAS at a time. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.112565">Ongoing scientific studies</a> are trying to understand the implications of mixtures on our health and how to regulate these forever chemicals accordingly. </p>
<p>The Canadian report is a necessary step to inform future regulations and stop the continued release of persistent PFAS in the environment. Future measures must expand the monitoring of PFAS substances in human and environmental samples in Canada, and prevent the introduction of new toxic replacements for PFAS. Substitutes for these chemicals must be deemed safe for the environment and human health prior to their release. </p>
<p>The Canadian report is open to the public and scientific community for comments until July 19, 2023, and we urge everyone to comment on this report to strengthen Canada’s new stance towards the adequate regulation of all PFAS — a position that has taken all too long.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amira Aker receives funding from Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada (CIRNAC) - Northern Contaminant Program (NCP), Sentinel North (Canada First Research Excellence Fund), Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé (FRQS), Department of Indigenous Services Canada and Genome Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mélanie Lemire receives funding from Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada (CIRNAC) - Northern Contaminant Program (NCP), Sentinel North (Canada First Research Excellence Fund), Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé (FRQS), Department of Indigenous Services Canada and Genome Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Ayotte receives funding from Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada (CIRNAC) - Northern Contaminant Program (NCP), Sentinel North (Canada First Research Excellence Fund) and ArcticNet - Networks of Centres of Excellence of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pascale Ropars does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Canadian government needs to regulate and, eventually, stop the continued release of toxic ‘forever chemicals’ into the environment and also prevent the creation of any toxic replacements.Amira Aker, Postdoctoral fellow, Environmental Epidemiology, Université LavalMélanie Lemire, Associate professor, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Université LavalPascale Ropars, Researcher, Sentinel North, Université LavalPierre Ayotte, Professor, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Université LavalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2033922023-05-15T12:33:42Z2023-05-15T12:33:42ZWhy don’t rocks burn?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523325/original/file-20230427-232-11japl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C0%2C5000%2C3308&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Jharia coal field in India has been on fire underground since 1916.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-the-village-liloripathra-that-is-located-on-the-top-of-news-photo/1227824345">Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p>Why don’t rocks burn? – Luke, age 4, New Market, New Hampshire</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>While many rocks don’t burn, some of them do. It depends on what the rocks are made of – and that’s related to how they were formed.</p>
<p>There are three main rock types: <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-igneous-rocks">igneous</a>, <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-sedimentary-rocks">sedimentary</a> and <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-metamorphic-rocks">metamorphic</a>. These rocks are made of minerals that all have different characteristics. Some will melt into <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-difference-between-magma-and-lava">magma or lava</a> – super-hot, liquid rock – when they are exposed to heat. Others will catch fire.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Bxw4kkeHJ8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Rocks can look alike, but one rock is not like another.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rocks that burn when they get heated up <a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/airplane/combst1.html">are combusting</a>. This means that elements within the rocks are reacting with oxygen in the air to produce heat and light, in the form of flames. </p>
<p>The elements <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/16/sulfur">sulfur</a>, <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/6/carbon">carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/1/hydrogen">hydrogen</a> easily react with oxygen. Rocks that contain these elements are combustible. Without these elements inside them, rocks that are exposed to enough heat will melt instead of catching fire.</p>
<h2>How rocks form</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-igneous-rocks">Igneous rocks</a> are formed when magma underground or <a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-can-we-tell-when-a-volcano-is-going-to-erupt-147703">lava from a volcano</a> cools and crystallizes into solid material. These rocks are mostly made of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/silicate-mineral">silicate minerals</a> that crystallize at temperatures from 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit (700 degrees Celsius) up to <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/magma-role-rock-cycle/">as high as 2,400 F (1,300 C)</a>.</p>
<p>Igneous rocks contain few or no combustible elements. And it’s very hard to remelt them back into magma because they crystallize at such high temperatures – it would take the kind of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cant-we-throw-all-our-trash-into-a-volcano-and-burn-it-up-170919">high-tech incinerator that cities use to burn waste</a> to make that happen.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-sedimentary-rocks">Sedimentary rocks</a> have a very different formation story. They form from broken bits of rocks, minerals, sometimes plant or animal material, and also crystals left behind when water evaporates, like the <a href="https://www.compoundchem.com/2016/03/02/limescale/">limescale</a> that forms in teakettles and bathtubs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic showing materials washing into the ocean and becoming compressed at depth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523326/original/file-20230427-14-w7d3zk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sedimentary rock forms when layers of material are compressed over time, either on land or under water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/mGbBa2">Siyavula Education/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is a lot of <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/16/sulfur">sulfur</a>, <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/6/carbon">carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/1/hydrogen">hydrogen</a> in living things. In fact, these are three of the <a href="https://www.livescience.com/32983-what-are-ingredients-life.html">six essential elements of life on Earth</a>. Bits of organic matter, particularly dead plants, also are combustible and allow the rocks to burn. </p>
<p>The last group of rocks is called <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-metamorphic-rocks">metamorphic</a>, because these rocks form when a lot of heat and pressure change existing rocks into new types without melting or burning them. “Metamorphosis” comes from ancient Greek and means “transformation.” For example, marble that you might see in kitchen counters or statues came from limestone that was transformed under intense heat and pressure deep underground. </p>
<h2>The rock that humans burn: Coal</h2>
<p>Metamorphic rocks that are formed from igneous rocks won’t contain the combustible elements – the ones that burn – but metamorphic rocks made from sedimentary rocks might. One familiar example is <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-types-coal">anthracite coal</a>, which is made almost entirely of carbon. It formed when dead plants fell into swamps long, long ago, were buried by sand or mud, and eventually were compressed over <a href="https://eartharchives.org/articles/the-evolution-of-plants-part-3-the-age-of-coal/index.html">hundreds of millions of years into coal</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large chunk of anthracite coal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523327/original/file-20230427-2850-2212o2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthracite is the hardest type of coal. It contains the most carbon and the fewest impurities of all coal types.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthracite#/media/File:Anthracite_chunk.JPG">Jakec/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many coal seams around the world. Sometimes the coal even <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fire-in-the-hole-77895126/">catches fire while it’s still in the ground</a>. The cause can be natural, such as a lightning strike, or human activities like mining.</p>
<p>In Centralia, Pennsylvania, a former mining town, a coal seam has been <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fire-in-the-hole-77895126/">burning for over 50 years</a>. There are other active coal seam fires in places around the world including <a href="https://eos.org/articles/coal-seam-fires-burn-beneath-communities-in-zimbabwe">Zimbabwe in Africa</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/02/indias-jharia-coal-field-has-been-burning-for-100-years.html">Jharia in India</a>.</p>
<p>If carbon is compressed with even more pressure than it takes to make coal, eventually <a href="https://theconversation.com/diamonds-are-forever-whether-made-in-a-lab-or-mined-from-the-earth-106665">you get diamonds</a> – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/have-scientists-really-found-something-harder-than-diamond-52391">hardest mineral found in nature</a>. In 1772, French chemist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Antoine-Lavoisier">Antoine Lavoisier</a> proved that diamonds could combust when he <a href="https://www.wtamu.edu/%7Ecbaird/sq/2014/03/27/can-you-light-diamond-on-fire/">burned one with a magnifying glass</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1QbHRLpYc-0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Scientists burn a diamond – the hardest mineral found in nature.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With enough patience, you could <a href="https://www.wtamu.edu/%7Ecbaird/sq/2014/03/27/can-you-light-diamond-on-fire/">burn a diamond in a candle flame</a>. But since diamonds are quite expensive, it’s better to stick to <a href="https://gosciencegirls.com/magnifying-glass-fire/">burning other things made of carbon</a>, like <a href="https://gosciencekids.com/magnifying-glass-fire/">leaves under a magnifying glass</a>, or sticks and marshmallows in a campfire, instead. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com</a>. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.</em></p>
<p><em>And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Bursztyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some rocks will burn, and others will melt, depending on how they were formed and what minerals they contain.Natalie Bursztyn, Lecturer in Geosciences, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006212023-04-19T18:47:43Z2023-04-19T18:47:43ZFor fossil-fuel reliant governments, climate action should start at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521688/original/file-20230418-20-qttubt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=199%2C103%2C4961%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One hundred twenty-five of the world’s richest billionaires emit roughly three million tonnes of CO2 per year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, file)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/for-fossil-fuel-reliant-governments--climate-action-should-start-at-home" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Many assume that big publicly traded oil companies and private individuals are primarily responsible for climate change. And there is some truth to this assumption. </p>
<p>Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and other fossil fuel companies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0986-y">continue to be some of the world’s major greenhouse gas emitters</a>. </p>
<p>But, a few individuals also play a disproportionate role in global emissions. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.9684">Oxfam found that 125 of the world’s richest billionaires emit roughly three million tonnes of CO2 per year</a>. This figure is roughly the same as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/730164">France’s annual CO2 emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Governments have responded to the problem of private emissions through a variety of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00971-x">policies</a>. However, what is often overlooked is that governments own some major emitters themselves.</p>
<h2>State-caused pollution is often neglected</h2>
<p>Numerous state-owned energy companies and utilities rank among the world’s biggest polluters. </p>
<p>Despite recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/saudi-aramcos-1-5-trillion-ipo-flies-in-the-face-of-climate-reality-126544">privatization efforts</a>, Saudi Arabia still owns 98 per cent of Saudi Aramco Oil Group. Russia holds a majority stake in the multinational energy corporation, Gazprom. <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/360.htm">Most OPEC members have nationalized their fossil fuel industries</a>.</p>
<p>Many other governments maintain major stakes in fossil fuel companies, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8831-0">Argentina (YPF), Brazil (Petrobras), Malaysia (Petronas), Mexico (Pemex) and Norway (Equinor)</a>.</p>
<p>According to climate researcher Richard Heede’s groundbreaking study, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0986-y">nation-states and government-owned enterprises were responsible for a staggering 68.5 per cent of major carbon emissions from 1910 to 2010</a>. In 2017, <a href="https://cdn.cdp.net/cdp-production/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1501833772">the Carbon Disclosure Project</a> reported that government-owned enterprises accounted for 59 per cent of the so-called carbon majors’ emissions. The carbon majors are the highest emitting companies dating back to the 1850s.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1182246311732613120"}"></div></p>
<p>State-caused pollution can also result from unexpected sources. Military operations, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03444-7">are responsible for one to five per cent of global emissions</a>. For reference, the aviation and shipping industries roughly account for two per cent of global emissions each.</p>
<h2>State-caused pollution is different</h2>
<p>State-caused pollution presents both a problem and an opportunity. </p>
<p>State-caused pollution is inconsistent with the principles of international climate change law. As the International Court of Justice has confirmed, governments are required to prevent transboundary environmental harm resulting from the activities under their “<a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/135/135-20100420-JUD-01-00-EN.pdf">jurisdiction and control</a>,” which includes state entities. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement calls on governments to enact climate change mitigation efforts that reflect their “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">highest possible ambition</a>.” The UN <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4538838d0.pdf">Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights</a> notes: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“States should … refrain from unlawfully polluting air, water and soil, e.g. through industrial waste from State-owned facilities.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>These norms suggest that states should do more to lower their emissions.</p>
<p>At the same time, state-caused pollution is easier to control through the political process. In contrast to privately-owned companies, state-owned polluters are directly accountable to government officials.</p>
<p>This implies that their activities are primarily shaped by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131796">political priorities</a>, as opposed to the overriding goal of profit maximization. This distinction opens interesting avenues for climate change action, provided governments make it a priority to reduce their emissions.</p>
<h2>Addressing state-caused pollution</h2>
<p>State emission sources can be controlled in two ways. </p>
<p>First, voters can urge governments to speed up the transition to cleaner energy through state-owned enterprises. Starting in 2003, the Ontario government closed five state-owned coal-fired power plants. The closures slashed coal’s share of the province’s electricity generation mix <a href="https://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/sites/default/files/downloads/resource/End-of-coal-ontario-coal-phase-out_IISD.pdf">to zero per cent from roughly 25 per cent</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C6Ee_z58ybM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Since 2003, the Ontario Government has closed five state-owned coal-fired power plants.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In October 2022, the French government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/france-keeps-edf-buyout-offer-12-euros-per-share-filing-2022-10-04/">announced plans</a> to renationalize the country’s national utility, Électricité de France. This initiative contributes to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220210-macron-calls-for-14-new-reactors-in-nuclear-renaissance">France’s energy transition strategy</a>. </p>
<p>In both these examples, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.039">governments leveraged state ownership</a> to pursue significant changes in their economy’s energy supplies.</p>
<p>Second, national and international courts can hold state-owned polluters accountable for environmental harms. There is an emerging trend of climate change claims against state-owned polluters, or so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12492">“state-as-polluter” litigation</a>.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/africa/comcases/155-96.html">Ogoniland case</a>, the African Commission on Human Rights found the Nigerian government responsible for human rights violations resulting from the polluting activities of its government-owned oil company.</p>
<p>Similarly, an <a href="https://www.climate-laws.org/geographies/ecuador/litigation_cases/herrera-carrion-et-al-v-ministry-of-the-environment-et-al-caso-mecheros">Ecuadorian court</a> recently found the country liable for constitutional violations resulting from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63051458">gas flaring</a></p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation_2021-snapshot.pdf">Belgium and the United Kingdom</a>, climate activists have launched lawsuits against government financial institutions for their investments in the fossil fuel industry. This trend of “state-as-polluter” will likely continue in the future.</p>
<h2>A new era for state-owned polluters?</h2>
<p>Historically, state-owned energy companies played an important role in pursuing political objectives. During the Cold War, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316717493">many countries nationalized their fossil fuel industries to increase domestic wealth</a>.</p>
<p>State-owned energy companies in many countries continue to provide a reliable source of energy for domestic consumers. </p>
<p>The mission of state-owned energy companies will need to change in the climate change era.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.10.005">36 national fossil fuel industries have the combined capacity to exhaust 143 percent of the remaining 2 C global carbon budget</a>. To address this challenge, governments can leverage their control over state-owned companies to divest from the fossil fuel industry and lower their emissions. </p>
<p>State-owned companies can also make major investments in renewable energy sources and research and development. This will allow state-owned companies to play a decisive role in the clean energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Lorteau receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Governments are more than regulators — they are also major greenhouse gas emitters.Steve Lorteau, SJD Candidate, Faculty of Law, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2024282023-04-12T12:10:59Z2023-04-12T12:10:59ZIn the turbulent Drake Passage, scientists find a rare window where carbon sinks quickly into the deep ocean<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520309/original/file-20230411-18-wrggfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=274%2C263%2C3123%2C2296&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Drake Passage, seen from Antarctica, is one of the most turbulent ocean regions on Earth.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lilian Dove</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Looking out across the Southern Ocean near Antarctica, I can see whales and seabirds diving in and out of the water as they feed on sea life in the lower levels of the food web. At the base of this food web are tiny phytoplankton – algae that grow at the ocean surface, taking up carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, just as plants on land do.</p>
<p>Because of their small size, phytoplankton are at the mercy of the ocean’s swirling motions. They are also so abundant that the green swirls are often visible from space. </p>
<p>Typically, phytoplankton remain near the surface of the ocean. Some may slowly sink to depth because of gravity. But in the turbulent Drake Passage, a 520-mile-wide (850 km) bottleneck between Antarctica and South America, something unusual is happening, and it has an impact on how the ocean takes carbon dioxide – the main driver of global warming – out of the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite image shows green swirls off the South American coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520127/original/file-20230411-24-4z7ae3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A satellite image captures a green phytoplankton bloom off the coast of Argentina. The Drake Passage is at the country’s southern end.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/612/">NASA Aqua/MODIS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Drake Passage</h2>
<p>The Drake Passage is notorious for its violent seas, with waves that can top 40 feet (12 meters) and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00644-x">powerful converging currents</a>, some flowing as fast as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070319">150 million cubic meters per second</a>. Cold water from the Southern Ocean and warmer water from the north collide here, spinning off <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0150.1">powerful and energetic eddies</a>.</p>
<p>New scientific research I am involved in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AlCIFFYAAAAJ&hl=en">as an oceanographer</a> now shows how the Drake Passage and a few other specific areas of the Southern Ocean play an outsize role in how the oceans lock up carbon from the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map shows the underwater ridges and continental shelves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520123/original/file-20230411-22-3zv2hv.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A topographic map of the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/etopo-global-relief-model.">NCEI/NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That process is crucial for our understanding of the climate. The global ocean is a massive reservoir of carbon, holding over <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ocean-earth-system/ocean-carbon-cycle">50 times as much carbon</a> as the atmosphere. However, it is only when water carrying carbon <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006790">gets to the deep ocean</a> that carbon can be stored for long periods – up to centuries or millennia.</p>
<p>Photosynthetic phytoplankton are at the heart of that exchange. And in the Drake Passage, my colleagues and I have found that undersea mountains are stirring things up.</p>
<h2>The role of ocean layers</h2>
<p>The ocean can be visualized as having layers. With constant surface waves and winds, the upper layer is always stirring around, mixing waters. It’s like mixing milk into your morning coffee. This stirring <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18203-3">mixes in solar heat and gases</a>, such as carbon dioxide, taken up from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Water density generally increases as the waters get deeper and colder and saltier. That forms density layers that are typically flat. Since water prefers to keep its density constant, it mostly moves horizontally and doesn’t easily move between the surface and deep ocean.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graphic shows the typical ocean density layers, with phytoplankton in the upper layers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520160/original/file-20230411-24-1kv12p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=610&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In most of the ocean, water stays within a density layer and doesn’t mix with colder, saltier water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lilian Dove</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet despite this physical barrier, water testing shows that carbon dioxide produced by human activities is making its way into the deep ocean. One way is through chemistry: Carbon dioxide dissolves in water, creating carbonic acid. Living creatures in the ocean are another.</p>
<h2>A view into the Drake Passage</h2>
<p>Oceanographers have long pointed to the north Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean as places <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24862019">where surface waters are moved to depth</a>, taking large volumes of carbon with them. However, recent work has shown that this process may actually be dominated by only a few areas – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102550">including the Drake Passage</a>.</p>
<p>Despite its being one of the most famous stretches of the ocean, scientists have only recently been able to observe this window in action.</p>
<p>The main flow of the Drake Passage is created by the effect of strong westerly winds across the Southern Ocean. Scientists have found that the westerly winds create a slope in the water density, with dense waters shallower closer to Antarctica, where colder melt water caps the surface, but sloping deeper into the ocean farther north toward South America.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Side-by-side graphics show (1) the typical ocean density layers and (2) the sloped density layers in the Drake Passage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520164/original/file-20230411-26-mi0289.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unlike in most of the ocean, density layers in the Drake Passage slope downward, allowing phytoplankton to mix downward as well as sideways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lilian Dove</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With advances in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102550">autonomous underwater robots</a> and computer modeling, we have been able to show how the flow of the Southern Ocean interacts with an underwater mountain in the Drake Passage. This underwater interaction <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097574">mixes up the ocean</a>, enhancing that coffeelike stirring process.</p>
<p>The stirring along the sloped density levels provides a pathway for water from the upper layer of the ocean to move into the depths. And phytoplankton at the surface ocean are carried along with this stirring, moving to depth much faster than they would by gravitational sinking alone.</p>
<p>In a less energetic region, these phytoplankton would die and respire their carbon back to the atmosphere or slowly sink. However, at the Drake Passage, phytoplankton can be swept to depth before this happens, meaning the carbon they’ve taken up from the atmosphere is sequestered in the deep ocean. Carbon dissolved and stored in the deep ocean may also vent out in these locations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people bundled up in winter gear work on a large seagoing drone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520122/original/file-20230411-18-thnam3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Author Lilian Dove, at right, works with oceanographer Isa Rosso and marine technician Richard Thompson to prepare an oceangoing autonomous vehicle to take measurements in the Southern Ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Linnah Neidel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists have estimated that the deepest ocean waters directly interact with the atmosphere through only about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/308621a0">5% of the ocean’s surface area</a>. This is one of those special places.</p>
<p>Investigating the Drake Passage and other oceanographic windows allows science to home in on better understanding climate change and the workings of our blue planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lilian Dove receives funding from the National Science Foundation and Resnick Sustainability Institute.</span></em></p>Working with underwater robots, scientists show how deep sea mountains and fast currents between Antarctica and South America play a crucial role in stabilizing the climate.Lilian (Lily) Dove, Ph.D. Candidate in Oceanography, California Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994672023-02-08T20:09:25Z2023-02-08T20:09:25ZHow to win over Alberta on the ‘just transition’ to a low-carbon energy sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508703/original/file-20230207-17-d057td.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C2179&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A pumpjack draws oil from underneath a canola field as a haze of wildfire smoke hangs in the air near Cremona, Alta., in July 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilkinson-just-transition-atlantic-electricity-1.6701409">Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson recently announced that “just transition” legislation is forthcoming</a> that will help Canadian oil and gas workers move into jobs in the low-carbon energy sector. </p>
<p>The announcement set off a firestorm in Alberta as Premier Danielle Smith said: “<a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/he-has-no-business-dictating-to-us-alberta-premier-rails-against-just-transition-1.6236507">It’s very clear what they have in mind for us is devastating. They want to shut down a quarter of our economy</a>.” </p>
<p>Rachel Notley, the province’s official opposition leader, suggested the federal government should <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-ndp-leader-wants-ottawa-to-drop-just-transition-bill-1.6718678">just take the legislation “…and basically get rid of it.”</a></p>
<p>Just transition is an important element of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/ensuring-workers-and-communities-prosper-as-we-move-to-net-zero/">Liberal party national climate policy</a> agenda. It’s in line with the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, which Canada signed along with 193 other countries. </p>
<p>The agreement considers “the imperatives of a just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities.” That means Canada’s national plan to address climate change and transition towards a decarbonized economy must consider and support workers.</p>
<h2>Making policy lemonade out of lemons</h2>
<p>Needless to say, the plan has had an inauspicious start, even though the details have yet to be revealed. </p>
<p>So how can the federal government salvage its just transition agenda and make policy lemonade out of the political lemon that is its relationship with Alberta?</p>
<p>It could be argued that Alberta, with its large oil and gas industry, is distinct from other provinces and territories and is unlikely to support any plan for a just transition. </p>
<p>But in the past seven years, the federal government has been able to work with provinces and territories, including Alberta, using three strategies that can increase the chances of bringing the province on board with the just transition plan.</p>
<h2>3 ways to win support</h2>
<p>First, the federal government has allowed substantial flexibility in local policy design. For example, provinces could accept a federal carbon pricing policy or develop their own equivalent policy, using a tax or a cap-and-trade system. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-carbon-tax-fact-check-1.5083348">Alberta’s United Conservative Party government has fought the carbon price on fuel tooth and nail</a>, it has quietly worked with the federal government on a pricing system for industry. <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/alberta.html">Even when the UCP government changed the provincial system</a>, upon coming to power, the federal government recognized its equivalency. </p>
<p>Similar flexibility and attention to local circumstances will be required if the just transition is to be politically accepted in Alberta. Simply including the province in a broader national transition strategy isn’t sufficient.</p>
<p>Second, the federal government offered trade-offs in return for provincial support. In Alberta under Notley and the NDP, provincial support for federal climate policies <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trans-mountain-federal-court-appeals-1.4804495">was contingent on approval of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project</a>, despite its greenhouse gas emission (GHG) footprints and the opposition of environmental groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blonde woman in a white hard hat stands in front of large oil transportation pipes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508668/original/file-20230207-14-7svvdj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rachel Notley speaks to media during a tour of Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project in Hardisty, Alta., when she was premier in August 2017. She was in the midst of a cross-country speaking tour on the importance of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government can look for additional trade-offs, particularly if Notley wins the provincial election in May. Potential options include increased support for the clean-up of abandoned oil and gas wells, investments in the province’s hydrogen industry and increasing financial incentives for carbon capture, use and storage technology.</p>
<p>Finally, the just transition plan itself must present a financial carrot to accompany the stick of a cap on GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector, which was announced last year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-growing-cost-to-clean-up-abandoned-and-orphaned-wells-143673">The growing cost to clean up abandoned and orphaned wells</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Federal enticements</h2>
<p>The federal government has provided funding, financial incentives and investments to entice provinces and territories to back national policy goals and help them meet federal regulatory requirements. </p>
<p>But historically, there has been a gap between what Alberta deems to be fair and necessary support for its industry and what the federal government is willing to shell out. The just transition is an opportunity to bridge this gap in expectations. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/fes-eea/2022/report-rapport/chap2-en.html">The federal government’s fall 2022 economic update planned for $250 million for skills training</a> for jobs in low-carbon energy industries. However, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-unveil-2021-election-platform-promising-total-of-78-billion-for-post-pandemic-rebuild-1.5569268?cache=hshngyycpze">the $2-billion figure floated in the federal Liberals’ 2021 election platform</a> is likely closer to the mark. </p>
<p>In addition, the support of industry was key to the viability of <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/alberta-s-climate-leadership-plan-progressive-climate-policy">Notley’s provincial Climate Leadership Plan</a>. The federal government should take advantage of the reality that many in the oil and gas industry desire and accept the need for a transition to sustainable jobs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A sign says Mountains not Mines next to a road leading to a mountain range." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508705/original/file-20230207-25-ydnlpg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sign opposing coal development near Longview, Alta., in June 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The path forward</h2>
<p>Is the just transition plan dead on arrival or is there a path to salvaging this key component of national climate policy? </p>
<p>As is often the case with public policy, the devil will be in the details. </p>
<p>As with any climate policy in Canada, considering and supporting local, economic and social realities are crucial to making the plan politically justifiable in Alberta. Doing so will also help the policy achieve equity and justice. </p>
<p>The stakes are high, and Canada and Alberta cannot afford to see the plan fail. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1098662">The frequency and intensity of natural disasters worldwide</a> in the past few years, and a shrinking market for fossil fuels, have already spurred the transition.</p>
<p>Canada has no choice but to adapt its energy sources and industries. </p>
<p>As the 2022 <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-inflation-reduction-act-heres-whats-in-it">Inflation Reduction Act</a> in the United States shows, other countries have started to take this path. If Canada doesn’t plan for it, the inevitable transition will be much more disruptive — and much less just.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Boyd receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marielle Papin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada has no choice but to adapt its energy sources and industries in a ‘just transition.’ If it doesn’t, the inevitable transition will be much more disruptive — and much less just.Brendan Boyd, Assistant Professor, Department of Anthropology, Economics and Political Science, MacEwan UniversityMarielle Papin, Assistant Professor in Political Science, MacEwan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981342023-01-24T21:23:30Z2023-01-24T21:23:30ZTargeted policies can help decarbonize Canada one home at a time<p>Be it through the food we eat, vehicle we use or way we live, <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-global-breakdown-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-sector/">we use fossil fuels and emit greenhouse gases</a> in various activities in our daily lives. We need to reduce emissions across sectors, starting with our homes. This requires <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate-action/">ambitious and quick action</a>.</p>
<p>As we face more and more climate change-induced weather extremes, we heavily rely on the use of home heating and cooling infrastructure. The emissions from space heating and cooling in homes represent almost one-fifth of <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/34572;jsessionid=50402C37879DE297641075CEE7FB3BA4">global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. </p>
<p>In Canada, home emissions account for around <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2019/eccc/En81-4-2017-1-eng.pdf">six per cent of emissions</a>, largely because most <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-commodities/natural-gas/report/canadian-residential-natural-gasbill/index.html">homes rely on natural gas-fired</a> or oil-powered furnaces and boilers, although additional emissions are associated with air conditioning. </p>
<p>Canada should decrease emissions from residential buildings by 50 per cent by 2030 and achieve a net-zero emissions building stock by 2050 <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">to meet its climate targets</a>. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102926">recent study</a> found that the first step towards this goal is using targeted policies that encourage the use of low-carbon technology in our homes, like heat pumps. </p>
<h2>Some provinces take the lead on decarbonization policy</h2>
<p>Across levels of Canadian governments, many types of policies have been designed to encourage switching from fossil fuel-based to low-carbon technologies. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1514012983449509892"}"></div></p>
<p>These include subsidies or loans for switching to low-carbon technologies, educational programs and adopting economy-wide policies such as <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work.html">carbon pricing</a>, regulations for building emissions and renewable natural gas mandates.</p>
<p>For example, the province of British Columbia offers its residents subsidies for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/bans-fossil-fuel-heating-homes-1.6327113">switching away from fossil fuel-based heating systems</a>. It also offers bonuses for performing additional <a href="https://www.betterhomesbc.ca/rebates/cleanbc-better-homes-and-home-renovation-rebate-programs/">low-carbon retrofits</a>.</p>
<p>Prince Edward Island offers an <a href="https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/en/service/residential-home-heating-loan-program">interest-free loan for up to $30,000</a> to residents who upgrade the current heating system in their homes to a cleaner, more efficient low-carbon system that reduces their carbon footprint.</p>
<p>Canada recently updated the carbon price, in line with its planned yearly increases in stringency.</p>
<p>While such efforts to decarbonize buildings are increasing, current policies seem to be insufficient for Canada to meet its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.064">greenhouse gas reduction commitments</a>. </p>
<h2>Five factors that influence Canadians to decarbonize</h2>
<p>Heat pumps can significantly <a href="https://www.cleanenergytransition.org/post/why-heat-pumps-are-key-to-building-decarbonization#:%7E:text=An%20Energy%20Policy%20study%20published,resources%20used%20for%20electricity%20production.">decarbonize Canada’s homes</a> because they are powered by electricity, and not fossil fuels. They also provide similarly efficient space cooling with the same system, and may be able to reduce consumer energy costs.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m3qgftmaeS8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Replacing boilers that burn natural gas with electricity-dependent heat pumps to heat and cool homes can help reduce emissions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But despite many policies that incentivize their adoption, these heat pumps are used in only around <a href="https://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/showTable.cfm?type=CP&sector=res&juris=ca&rn=27&page=0">five per cent of home heating systems in Canada</a>. Why is adoption so low?</p>
<p>Using data from a nationally representative sample of 3,138 Canadian homeowners, we explored the main motivators for heat pump adoption in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102926">our study</a>.</p>
<p>We found that while one-third of Canadian homeowners express willingness to adopt heat pumps, they are generally unaware of existing government efforts or policies in place to support its adoption. Only five per cent of our respondents were able to name such policies from memory. This policy awareness was higher in British Columbia, and for heat pump subsidies and carbon taxes. </p>
<p>However, policy awareness, we found, is a weak positive predictor of willingness to adopt heat pumps. We found that homeowners are more willing to adopt a heat pump if they </p>
<p>1) believe it can effectively heat and cool their home,</p>
<p>2) think it can improve air quality and help fight climate change,</p>
<p>3) are interested in technology, </p>
<p>4) support policies that encourage heat pump adoption, and </p>
<p>5) don’t perceive heat pumps as being too expensive or inconvenient to install. </p>
<h2>The top-down approach</h2>
<p>So, instead of focusing their efforts on educating homeowners about existing policies, our research suggests that policymakers should aim to increase homeowners’ confidence in low-carbon infrastructure like heat pumps. They must highlight the effectiveness and environmental benefits of these technologies. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1504925891691958275"}"></div></p>
<p>Policies can also be designed to help remove barriers of high financial and inconvenience costs during heat pump installation. For example, subsidy amounts could cover inconvenience costs and more funding could be directed towards training contractors in such installations.</p>
<p>Considering these drivers and barriers while tailoring policy design and structure will help augment the adoption of such low-carbon technologies, and by extension home decarbonization. </p>
<p>While this holds true in Canada, at both the national and provincial levels, it can also be replicated in other jurisdictions with similar climates or policy regimes such as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom and the northern United States.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198134/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ekaterina Rhodes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Insight Development Grant # 430-2020-00214.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meghan Corbett received funding from from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Insight Development Grant # 430-2020-00214.</span></em></p>Policies that encourage the use of low-carbon technology like heat pumps can help motivate residents to decarbonize their homes.Ekaterina Rhodes, Assistant Professor, School of Public Administration, University of VictoriaMeghan Corbett, Master's student, Public Administration, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1942382022-11-29T13:34:50Z2022-11-29T13:34:50ZGraphene is a proven supermaterial, but manufacturing the versatile form of carbon at usable scales remains a challenge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497098/original/file-20221123-22-6q2g12.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C34%2C1260%2C770&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Graphene has many incredible physical properties that arise from its one-atom-thick carbon structure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Graphen.jpg#/media/File:Graphen.jpg">AlexanderAlUS/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Future chips may be <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/future-chips-may-be-10-times-faster-all-thanks-to-graphene/ar-AA14qqsu">10 times faster, all thanks to graphene</a>”; “Graphene may be <a href="https://www.newswise.com/coronavirus/wonder-material-can-be-used-to-detect-covid-19-quickly-accurately/?article_id=753042">used in COVID-19 detection</a>”; and “Graphene allows batteries to <a href="https://www.theverge.com/22771702/graphene-power-bank-review-price-speed">charge 5x faster</a>” – those are just a handful of recent dramatic headlines lauding the possibilities of graphene. Graphene is an incredibly light, strong and durable material made of a single layer of carbon atoms. With these properties, it is no wonder researchers have been studying ways that graphene could advance material science and technology for decades.</p>
<p>I never know what to expect when I tell people <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yykU46oAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I study graphene</a> – some have never heard of it, while others have seen some version of these headlines and inevitably ask, “So what’s the holdup?” </p>
<p>Graphene is a fascinating material, just as the sensational headlines suggest, but it is only just starting be used in real-world applications. The problem lies not in graphene’s properties, but in the fact that it is still incredibly difficult and expensive to manufacture at commercial scales.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white image of a crystalline layer on a surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497095/original/file-20221123-20-ztyacw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pure graphene is a uniform, single-atom-thick crystal of carbon arranged in a hexagonal pattern, as seen in this electron microscope image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Graphene-TEM.jpg#/media/File:Graphene-TEM.jpg">M.H. Gass/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is graphene?</h2>
<p>Graphene is most simply defined as a single layer of carbon atoms bonded together in a hexagonal, sheetlike structure. You can think of pure graphene as a one-layer-thick sheet of carbon tissue paper that happens to be the strongest material on Earth. </p>
<p>Graphene usually comes in the form of a powder made of small, individual sheets that are roughly the diameter of a grain of sand. An individual sheet of graphene is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235126">200 times stronger than an equally thin piece of steel</a>. Graphene is also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature26160">extremely conductive</a>, holds together at <a href="https://doi.org/10.3367/UFNe.0184.201410c.1045">up to 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit (700 C)</a>, can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2019.05.034">withstand acids</a> and is <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2017/3-d-graphene-strongest-lightest-materials-0106">flexible and very lightweight</a>.</p>
<p>Because of these properties, graphene could be extremely useful. The material can be used to <a href="https://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=5468#">create flexible electronics</a> and to <a href="https://www.azocleantech.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=936">purify or desalinate water</a>. And adding just 0.03 ounces (1 gram) of graphene to 11.5 pounds (5 kilograms) of cement <a href="https://firstgraphene.net/applications/concrete/#:%7E:text=The%20use%20of%20graphene%20concrete,new%20generation%20of%20concrete%20designs">increases the strength of the cement by 35%</a>. </p>
<p>As of late 2022, Ford Motor Co., with which I worked as part of my doctoral research, is one of the the only companies to use graphene at industrial scales. Starting in 2018, Ford began making plastic for its vehicles that was 0.5% graphene – <a href="https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2018/10/09/ford-innovates-with-miracle-material-powerful-graphene-for-vehicle-parts.html">increasing the plastic’s strength by 20%</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A close-up photo of the tip of a pencil writing on paper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497097/original/file-20221123-26-1wxtw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers made the first piece of graphene by peeling layers of carbon off of graphite – or pencil lead – with tape.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/macro-pencil-tip-resting-on-blank-white-paper-royalty-free-image/856908132?phrase=pencil%20lead&adppopup=true">Rapid Eye/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to make a supermaterial</h2>
<p>Graphene is produced in two principal ways that can be described as either a top-down or bottom-up process.</p>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-history-controversy-and-nobel-prize">first sheet of graphene</a> was created in 2004 out of graphite. Graphite, commonly known as pencil lead, is composed of millions of graphene sheets stacked on top of one another. Top-down synthesis, also known as <a href="https://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=5471">graphene exfoliation</a>, works by peeling off the thinnest possible layers of carbon from graphite. Some of the earliest graphene sheets were made by using cellophane tape to <a href="https://science.wonderhowto.com/how-to/make-graphene-sheets-from-graphite-flakes-and-cellophane-tape-402113/">peel off layers of carbon from a larger piece of graphite</a>. </p>
<p>The problem is that the molecular forces holding graphene sheets together in graphite are very strong, and it’s hard to pull sheets apart. Because of this, graphene produced using top-down methods is often many layers thick, has holes or deformations, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/adma.201803784">can contain impurities</a>. Factories can produce a few tons of mechanically or chemically exfoliated graphene per year, and for many applications – like mixing it into plastic – the <a href="https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/graphene-101-forms-properties-and-applications">lower-quality graphene works well</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A thin, folded, rough-edged piece of graphene." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497094/original/file-20221123-16-meka9j.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graphene flakes made from top-down methods are usually more than one atom thick and have impurities like folds and tears, as seen in this image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Graphene_flakes.JPG#/media/File:Graphene_flakes.JPG">Дагесян Саркис Арменакович/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Top-down, exfoliated graphene is far from perfect, and some applications do need that pristine single sheet of carbon. </p>
<p>Bottom-up synthesis builds the carbon sheets one atom at a time over a few hours. This process – called <a href="https://www.graphenea.com/pages/cvd-graphene#.Y3vcF3bMI2w">vapor deposition</a> – allows researchers to produce high-quality graphene that is one atom thick and up to 30 inches across. This yields graphene with the best possible mechanical and electrical properties. The problem is that with a bottom-up synthesis, it can take <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.chemrev.8b00325">hours to make even 0.00001 gram</a> – not nearly fast enough for any large scale uses like in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nnano.2010.132">flexible touch-screen electronics or solar panels</a>, for example.</p>
<h2>So what’s the holdup?</h2>
<p>Current production methods of graphene, both top-down and bottom-up, are expensive as well as energy and resource intensive, and simply produce too little product, too slowly. </p>
<p>Some companies do manufacture graphene and sell it for <a href="https://bigthink.com/the-present/flash-graphene/">US$60,000 to $200,000 per ton</a>. There are a limited number of uses that make sense at these high costs.</p>
<p>While small amounts of top-down or bottom-up graphene can satisfy the needs of researchers, for companies even just the process of prototyping a new material, application or manufacturing process requires many pounds of graphene powder or hundreds of graphene sheets and a lot of time and effort. It took significant investment and more than four years of study, development and optimization before graphene hit the production line at Ford. </p>
<p>Current production can barely cover experimentation, much less widespread use. </p>
<h2>Improving manufacturing</h2>
<p>For a material that has been around since only 2004, a lot of progress has been made in scaling up the production and implementation of graphene. </p>
<p>There are hints that graphene is starting to break through at a commercial level. There are a huge number of <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/12/13/what-is-graphene-entrepreneurs-headphones-smartphones-construction-eco-friendly-thinnest-material-on-earth/">graphene-related startups looking at a wide range of uses</a> ranging from <a href="https://nanotechenergy.com/">energy storage</a> to <a href="https://graphmatech.com/">composites</a> to <a href="https://www.inbrain-neuroelectronics.com/">nerve stimulation</a>. Major companies – such as <a href="https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/elon-musk-tesla-working-new-manganese-battery-cell/">Tesla</a>, <a href="https://www.thegraphenecouncil.org/blogpost/1501180/347505/LG-Electronics-Secures-Its-Position-in-CVD-Graphene-Production">LG</a> and <a href="https://www.thegraphenecouncil.org/blogpost/1501180/359799/BASF-Applies-Expertise-to-Graphene-Commercialization">chemical giant BASF</a> – are also investigating how graphene could be used, in rechargeable batteries, flexible or wearable electronics and next-generation materials.</p>
<p>Graphene is ripe for a breakthrough that will bring down the cost and increase the scale of production, and this is an <a href="https://www.phdassistance.com/blog/graphenes-for-research-and-the-growing-number-of-publications-per-year/">area of intense academic research</a>. One new technique discovered in 2020, called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-1938-0">flash joule heating</a>, is especially promising. Researchers have shown that passing large amounts of electricity through any carbon source reorganizes the carbon-carbon bonds into a graphene structure. Using this process, it is possible to make many pounds of high-quality graphene for a relatively low cost out of any carbon-containing material like coal or even trash. A <a href="https://www.universalmatter.com/">company called Universal Matter Inc.</a> is already commercializing the process.</p>
<p>Once the cost of graphene comes down, the commercial applications will follow. The <a href="https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/graphene-market-102930">appetite for graphene is huge</a>, but it is going to take some time before this material lives up to its potential.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Wyss receives funding through the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, as well as the Rice University Stauffer-Rothrock Fellowship. He has worked in collaboration with Ford Motor Company and Universal Matter, but is not an employee.</span></em></p>Graphene is superstrong and superconductive, and it has applications in everything from construction to electronics. But to date there have been almost no commercial uses of the material.Kevin Wyss, PhD Student in Chemistry, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.