tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/elizabeth-may-69966/articlesElizabeth May – The Conversation2021-10-13T14:56:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1693312021-10-13T14:56:41Z2021-10-13T14:56:41ZAnnamie Paul: Lessons for the Green Party after ‘the worst period in my life’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425935/original/file-20211012-21-1a21zcd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C158%2C2000%2C1170&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Annamie Paul is photographed before announcing she is officially stepping down as Green Party leader, ahead of a press conference at Suydam Park in Toronto in September 2021. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tenure of Annamie Paul as leader of the Green Party of Canada was short. Paul is <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/green-party-leader-annamie-paul-resigns-her-post">resigning as leader of the Green Party</a> less than a year after she took over.</p>
<p>When Elizabeth May <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-green-party-leader-1.5346635">stepped down as leader in November 2019</a> after helming the party for 13 years, she left big shoes to fill. <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/media-release/2019-10-22/green-party-thrilled-historic-wins">In the 2019 federal election</a>, the party doubled its share of the popular vote compared to the previous election and obtained more than a million votes for the first time. Three Green Party members were elected as MPs, also a first. </p>
<p>Yet simmering below the surface were ideological, organizational and management divisions and strife. The different visions for the party showed up in <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/leadership-2020">the platforms of those vying to be the new leader</a>. Indeed, the 2020 Green Party leadership race laid bare these deep ideological divides about how the Green Party should present itself in the future. </p>
<p>Several candidates ran on an eco-socialist platform and argued that capitalism is the root of <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2020/09/21/frustrated-by-grits-and-ndp-canadian-leftists-turn-to-socialist-green-leadership-candidates/">climate change and inequality</a> whereas others, including Paul, were seen as centrists “<a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/eco-socialist-almost-wins-green-party-leadership-what-does-this-mean">who represented the liberal establishment of the Green Party and a continuation of May’s pro-capitalist environmentalism</a>.”</p>
<p>After eight rounds of voting, Paul won the <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/annamie-paul-wins-green-party-leadership-1.5131494">leadership in October 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Failed to win a seat</h2>
<p>It was a bumpy start for Paul. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-annamie-paul-green-party-future-1.5779262">She lost a byelection for the Toronto Centre riding</a> later that month, which meant she wasn’t able to lead the Greens in the House of Commons. By April 2021, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/annamie-paul-green-party-politics-infighting-1.6107725">leaks were starting to pour into the media</a> about internal strife within the party, including allegations the party was ineffective in dealing with issues involving sexism, racism and diversity. </p>
<p>In May and June 2021, the Green Party revisited an issue that had <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/statement/2014-08-01/statement-president-green-party-canada">haunted them before</a>. The <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2021/05/31/middle-east-conflict-divides-canadas-green-party/?doing_wp_cron=1634016905.1333589553833007812500">Israeli-Palestinian conflict blew up the party</a>, spurring MP Jenica Atwin to cross the floor to the Liberals because of Paul’s statement on the escalation of fighting in Gaza. Paul’s response <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/statement/2021-05-10/green-party-statement-violence-israel-and-gaza">to encourage the de-escalation of violence and to support peace in the area</a> was seen to be “<a href="https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/green-party-scores-own-goal-with-defection-of-pro-palestine-mp">totally inadequate</a>” from Atwin and others. </p>
<p>Paul’s senior adviser, Noah Zatzman, also publicly criticized Green MPs and other Green Party members for their <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/07/20/The-Man-Who-Upended-Canadas-Green-Party/">pro-Palestinian stance</a>. Many members were outraged that Paul didn’t publicly discipline Zatzman in some manner.</p>
<p>In June and July 2021, concerns about Paul’s leadership escalated. There was a call to vote on a measure of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-layoffs-1.6085961">non-confidence in Paul’s leadership</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-paul-funding-riding-election-1.6100459">a Federal Council (the governing body for the Green Party) motion to hold back campaign funds for Paul’s campaign in Toronto Centre</a> and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/green-party-annamie-paul-1.6101869">move to revoke Paul’s membership in the Green Party.</a></p>
<p>Paul, the first Black and Jewish woman to lead a major federal party, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elizabeth-may-won-t-be-green-interim-leader-says-annamie-paul-hurting-party-1.5608501">has said efforts to push her out were fuelled by racism and sexism</a>. </p>
<p>In a June meeting, Paul said the allegations made against her “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-emergency-meeting-reaction-1.6068280">were so racist, so sexist, that they were immediately disavowed by … our MPs as offensive and inflammatory</a>.” And she said it was not an isolated incident, alleging the hatred escalated when she became leader. She called <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8148532/canada-election-annamie-paul-profile/">for efforts to stop the targeted attacks.</a></p>
<p>Election night results were a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/election-2021/election-2021-results-green-party-delivered-setback-at-ballot-box-losing-mp-in-faltering-of-support">stark contrast from 2019</a>. It became clear that Paul would either resign or endure a party non-confidence vote and leadership review. A week later, she stepped down.</p>
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<img alt="Annamie Paul in a cream suit speaks into a microphone at a podium as people behind her applaud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425938/original/file-20211012-25-9jidic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Annamie Paul stands at the podium as she concedes defeat in the Toronto Centre riding on election night in Toronto.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons for the Greens</h2>
<p>While the Green Party should have learned many lessons over the past year, there are a few that particularly stand out.</p>
<p>While internal party turmoil happens in all political parties, loyalty to the party and its leader as issues and problems arise must be paramount instead of <a href="https://pressprogress.ca/senior-green-party-officials-condemned-own-leader-as-autocratic-and-dishonest-in-confidential-internal-letter/">disgruntled members leaking stories to the media</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than presenting itself as a professional party capable of leading the country, Canadians were treated to what seemed like a reality show that seriously eroded voter trust and confidence. It’s no wonder Paul described her leadership <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elizabeth-may-won-t-be-green-interim-leader-says-annamie-paul-hurting-party-1.5608501">as the worst period in her life</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens must also define their governance structure and cultural soul, including <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/it-has-been-the-worst-period-in-my-life-annamie-paul-stepping-down-as-leader-of-federal-green-party-1.5601931">addressing the systemic barriers within the party</a> in terms of <a href="https://www.csps-efpc.gc.ca/anti-racism-eng.aspx">equity, diversity and inclusion</a> related to culture, race, language, gender, physical ability and religion. </p>
<p>Some members, like <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/10/08/Where-Greens-Go-From-Here/">former leadership candidate Glenn Murray</a>, have called for the party to figure out what it really stands for. Anna Keenan, Green candidate in Prince Edward Island, says the party should focus on a culture of team unity that is “<a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/10/05/as-annamie-paul-steps-away-from-the-green-party-recent-candidates-say-its-future-rests-on-fostering-internal-unity/321327">struggling together towards the same goals, instead of struggling against each other</a>.”</p>
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<img alt="May stands in front of a Green Party sign, wearing a green jacket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425952/original/file-20211012-27-u0f8hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Elizabeth May on election night in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span>
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<p>The party also has to come to terms with the role of the leader in the Green Party of Canada. In response to Paul’s resignation, May stated in an interview that the Greens leader is not the boss: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/10/03/whos-the-boss-not-the-next-leader-of-the-green-party-says-elizabeth-may.html">“You’re the chief spokesperson,” she said. “You’re not the boss.”</a> The question is whether future Green Party leadership candidates fully understand and accept this challenge.</p>
<p>The role of interim leader or caretaker is still being determined. <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-to-appoint-interim-leader-to-steady-troubled-party-with-may-floated-as-option-1.5603737">Both May and Jo-Ann Roberts, a former journalist turned Green candidate, have steered the ship before and are being considered</a>.</p>
<p>Other political parties have weathered internal storms. There are many Greens in Canada who are hoping the Green Party can do so too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Speers has been a member of four different political parties at some point during her life. She has been non-partisan for almost twenty years and teaches in a manner that encourages critical thinking and that prepares students to work for a government of any political stripe. </span></em></p>Political parties often weather internal storms. There are many Greens in Canada who are hoping the Green Party can do so too after Annamie Paul’s leadership laid bare serious issues in the party.Kimberly Speers, Public Administration Teaching Professor, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1256212019-10-23T13:50:16Z2019-10-23T13:50:16ZFederal election frustrations for the Greens highlight electoral system flaws — again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298214/original/file-20191022-55679-1c20nk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=87%2C73%2C4324%2C3180&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">About 4,000 climate activists and pro-pipeline supporters gathered on the steps of the Alberta legislature in Edmonton on Oct. 19, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dave Chidley</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For an election that was sometimes <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/20/world/canada-election-october-21-intl/index.html">described as being about “nothing”</a>, it turned out to be an important one for climate change policy and the environment. </p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the federal election, hundreds of thousands of people, stirred up by teenage activist Greta Thunberg, marched through the streets in Canada in support of action on climate change. The turnout reflected the fact that <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/tag/climate-change/">public opinion polling</a> consistently showed that the environment, and more specifically climate change, was a top issue for Canadians.</p>
<p>All the party leaders, except Andrew Scheer and Maxime Bernier, joined the marchers to highlight their commitments to action on climate change. The Greens may have hoped the momentum might buoy them to a strong election outcome, perhaps even official party status. </p>
<p>Even though the election provided the Greens with what was in some ways their best outcome ever, in the end they fell short, leaving a complicated landscape ahead. </p>
<h2>Widespread support but not seats</h2>
<p>The Greens obtained nearly 1.2 million votes — the greatest number in the party’s history — and 6.5 per cent of the popular vote, falling slightly short of their 2008 record. </p>
<p>But support for the Greens, which is widely distributed across Canada, is notoriously inefficient at being translated into seats. That reality proved true again in this election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-in-every-riding-support-climate-action-new-research-shows-122918">Canadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows</a>
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<p>The Greens held onto two seats in British Columbia and beat out a Liberal incumbent in New Brunswick — their best showing yet. But three seats is not enough for official party status in the House of Commons. </p>
<h2>Strategic voting hurts Greens, saves Liberals</h2>
<p>The Greens have held the balance of power in British Columbia’s NDP-minority government since 2017. But with the number of Liberal and NDP seats totalling 181 at the federal level, the Greens may have only limited influence on Trudeau’s minority government. </p>
<p>The Greens, however, can claim success in other ways. </p>
<p>Their <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/">polling numbers</a> remained consistent — around 10 per cent — until the final weekend of the campaign. This forced the other progressive parties, particularly the Liberals and the NDP, to shore up the environment and climate change dimensions of their platforms, including more ambitious climate change targets, to avoid losing potential voters to the Greens.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298312/original/file-20191023-119438-1luhvev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Green Party Leader Elizabeth May casts her vote in Sidney, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span>
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<p>In Ontario, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6061446/the-liberals-dominated-many-battleground-greater-toronto-area-ridings/">voters made last-minute decisions</a> to back Trudeau’s government and block a potential Conservative victory. Those choices came at the expense of the NDP, and to a lesser extent the Greens, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. </p>
<p>The resulting electoral map looks surprisingly similar to the outcome of the <a href="http://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2014/06/13/the-2014-ontario-election-outcome-the-electoral-politics-of-economic-transitions/">2014 provincial election</a>. The Liberals and NDP split northern Ontario and the cities and towns in the south, while the Conservatives were left with their traditional southern and central rural Ontario base. The outcome reinforces the argument that <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2019/will-the-ford-era-lead-to-a-political-realignment-in-ontario/">Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s 2018 election victory was an aberration</a>, and one that Ontario voters didn’t want to risk repeating at the federal level.</p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>The Green’s presence in the election, and particularly leader Elizabeth May’s role in the leaders’ debates, was instrumental in keeping climate change and environmental issues at the forefront of the campaign. </p>
<p>Some, including May, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-green-party-elizabeth-may-profile-climate-change-election/">argue that outcome</a> is more important than seat counts. It may also be, under Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the best the Greens can hope for for the time being. </p>
<p>The election again highlighted how badly the current system works for smaller parties whose support, however substantial, is widely distributed across the country. The Bloc Québécois earned 1.2 percentage points more of the popular vote than the Greens. But with its support concentrated entirely in Québec, the Bloc emerged with 32 seats compared to the Green’s three. </p>
<p>In an age where the regional divisions in Canada seem to be deepening, the need to move to a system that rewards support across the nation and is less favourable to parties rooted in regional grievance seems more urgent than ever. </p>
<p>Both major parties have emerged from this federal election thinking the existing system has worked in their favour. This makes the prospects for reform, once part of the <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/New-plan-for-a-strong-middle-class.pdf">2015 Liberal platform</a>, seem even further out of reach. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a story originally published on Oct 23, 2019. It clarifies the result of the Bloc Québécois in the federal election.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation. </span></em></p>Hundreds of thousands of people marched through the streets in support of action on climate change, but that didn’t lead to seats for the Green Party.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254822019-10-22T19:55:15Z2019-10-22T19:55:15ZHow progressive voters can truly win in future Canadian elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298206/original/file-20191022-55701-tkbwva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C31%2C2744%2C2043&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters head to cast their ballot in Canada's federal election in Dartmouth, N.S. The Greens and the NDP need to work together to ensure they do better than just propping up Liberal minorities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have won a minority government. They hung on in Québec, Atlantic Canada and Ontario sufficiently to forestall a Conservative government of any sort. </p>
<p>Sadly, for my home province of British Columbia, it was not one of those rare elections where our vote was decisive. On the whole, however, progressive Canadians like me have some reason for cautious optimism.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeaus-job-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated-125431">Justin Trudeau's job just got a lot more complicated</a>
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<p>Although it’s clear that the NDP was badly damaged in Québec and are struggling to maintain their third-party status in that province against a resurgent Bloc Québécois, it is also clear the party has not been nationally decimated. </p>
<p>It’s equally evident that although the Greens did not have a major breakthrough, it will, like the NDP, have some influence over the new Liberal minority. </p>
<p>The projected results are probably somewhat of a relief for Jagmeet Singh, whose late campaign enthusiasm, debate performances and principled responses to hecklers make the case for him to remain as leader and perhaps run again in the next election. </p>
<p>Similarly, Elizabeth May’s Green Party continued to draw national support and to make gains even within the confines of an electoral system inhospitable to it. </p>
<p>Whether she’ll retain the support of her party and two-person caucus is uncertain. </p>
<h2>Supporting the Liberal minority</h2>
<p>Over the next several weeks and months however, everything will depend, for the NDP and Green leaders, on how influential they can make themselves and their parties in exchange for supporting a new Liberal minority. </p>
<p>The Bloc had an unprecedented breakthrough in Québec. That’s bad news for all Canadians, because it gives a boost to Québec’s controversial <a href="https://theconversation.com/clashing-rights-behind-the-quebec-hijab-debate-117711">secularism law</a> and emboldens other provinces to subvert Charter of Rights and Freedoms protections by invoking the notwithstanding clause.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-history-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-90508">The history of the notwithstanding clause</a>
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<p>This backlash against principles of religious freedom and equality of individuals, regardless of religion, is equally reflected in the extreme anti-immigration politics of Maxime Bernier, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/canadian-federal-election-2019-maxime-bernier-ppc-loss">who lost his seat.</a> </p>
<p>Thankfully, the Conservative Party of Canada has not been infiltrated by ultra-nationalism or extreme-right politics in the same way as the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republicans-no-longer-conservative-party_n_59767dd6e4b0e201d5776f8c">Republican Party</a> in the United States or the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-conservatives-far-right-in-charge-a7764986.html">Conservative Party</a> in the United Kingdom. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3576%2C2398&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3576%2C2398&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative leader Andrew Scheer appears on stage at Conservative election headquarters in Regina after losing the election to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although Andrew Scheer’s days as leader are probably now numbered, the Conservative Party of Canada will have to remain vigilant if it’s to avoid becoming a home for the far right. The longer it stays in opposition, the more difficult that will be. </p>
<p>It is difficult to imagine Trudeau’s minority government relying on the Bloc to prop them up, and this makes it likely that the NDP will play that role. There is every reason to believe that the result might be a stable government that better reflects the contemporary values of Canadian voters than the previous Liberal majority. </p>
<p>However, what remains troubling about the outcome of this election is that Trudeau and his party managed to maintain the support it has. </p>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5966784/liberals-broken-promises/">Despite broken promises</a> on nation-to-nation negotiations with Indigenous Peoples, proportional representation and the environment, Trudeau has only been lightly rebuked by voters. Even revelations of photos featuring a younger Trudeau dressed in brownface and blackface did not ultimately end his viability as the highest profile leader in the country.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trudeaus-blackface-apology-rings-hollow-and-highlights-anti-arab-stereotypes-123891">Trudeau's blackface apology rings hollow and highlights anti-Arab stereotypes</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>There are many possible reasons for this. </p>
<p>One of them is that voters have simply forgiven Trudeau for his political conflicts of interest, broken campaign promises and history of racially insensitive costumes. </p>
<p>Another is that citizens simply no longer expect much of their politicians when it comes to personal integrity and ethical conduct. If accurate, that would demonstrate an alarming degree of voter cynicism. </p>
<p>More likely, however, is that the Liberal campaign strategy of scaring potential NDP and Green voters <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6028408/ndp-jagmeet-singh-strategic-voting/">into a strategic vote for their party worked again</a>, particularly in Ontario. This strikes me as a problem. Progressives should not have felt that they had no option but to vote again for Trudeau’s Liberals, despite their disappointment with his leadership. </p>
<h2>Another option</h2>
<p>There might have been another option and there still might be next time. </p>
<p>The NDP and the Greens should change their behaviour as parties going forward. Specifically, before the next election, the leaders of both parties should agree not to run candidates against each other for the express purpose of avoiding future vote-splitting. </p>
<p>In order to do this, the leaders of both major left-leaning parties would have to negotiate a protocol, based on a combination of external and internal polling data, as to how the country’s 338 ridings would be divided between the parties.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Singh and May take part in the the federal leaders’ French-language debate. They should have worked together long before the writ dropped.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If neither Singh nor May were open to this, their leadership should be challenged by someone else within their party interested in forming a government in the next election. This is the only conceivable way for Canadians to see a genuine alternative to the left of the Liberals in the next election. </p>
<p>Dishearteningly, the current accommodation that appears to have been at least begrudgingly accepted by both the NDP and Greens, even before the first ballot was counted, was achieving king-maker status in a minority government led by the Liberals. </p>
<p>This might be a reasonable strategy under the circumstances, but it is hardly the stuff of visionary leadership. If May and Singh had held a leader’s summit before the writ was dropped, things might have turned out differently. </p>
<p>Minority governments have much to recommend them. In the absence of a clear majority, a country needs leadership willing to negotiate and compromise to govern. </p>
<p>However, the progressive left should not content itself with aiming to be a junior partner in Liberal minority governments. In the next election, they should seek to propose a principled, but realistic, alternative to the Liberals — one that can truly compete for power. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey B. Meyers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The progressive left should not content itself with being a junior partner in Liberal minority governments. In the next election, they should seek to propose a principled, realistic alternative.Jeffrey B. Meyers, Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1256842019-10-22T19:51:48Z2019-10-22T19:51:48ZWhat a Liberal minority government will mean for the health of Canadians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298186/original/file-20191022-55685-1xlhuoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1897%2C313%2C2861%2C2140&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau delivers his speech in Montreal, on October 22, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s federal election <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/results/">produced a minority Liberal government</a> that will, in all likelihood, be propped up by the NDP. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeaus-political-setback-a-surprise-to-the-world-but-not-to-canada-125422">Justin Trudeau's political setback: A surprise to the world, but not to Canada</a>
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<p>Where does that leave health care across the country, moving forward? </p>
<p>Health care typically comes near the <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/CMA-Future-of-Healthcare">top of any list when Canadians are asked about the issues that matter to them the most</a>, but only two issues seemed to draw any significant attention from the political parties in the election campaign: pharmacare and the opioid crisis.</p>
<h2>Expect pharmacare, but not in a hurry</h2>
<p>On pharmacare, there were clear <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/09/25/Universal-Pharmacare-Roadmaps/">divisions among the parties</a>. According to the 2019 report of the Advisory Council on the Implementation of National Pharmacare, chaired by Dr. Eric Hoskins, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/corporate/about-health-canada/public-engagement/external-advisory-bodies/implementation-national-pharmacare/final-report.html">one in five Canadians are at risk of not getting proper medication treatment</a> because they are uninsured or underinsured. According to a poll conducted this summer, <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/20/canadians-want-pharmacare-action-on-reconciliation-mainstreet-poll/">more than two-thirds of us agreed</a> with the statement that a
national pharmacare program, where the federal government pays for prescription drugs, is something that Canada should have.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/leave-the-patchwork-to-the-quilts-the-case-for-pharmacare-122284">Leave the patchwork to the quilts: The case for pharmacare</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Both the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-party-platforms-guide-canadian-federal-election-2019/#pharmacare">NDP and the Greens</a> committed to a universal pharmacare plan by the end of 2020, and Elizabeth May went further, declaring that a Green Party government would pay the full cost for the first two years and after that negotiate a cost-sharing agreement with the provinces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298166/original/file-20191022-55645-1ak2lol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green Party Leader Elizabeth May delivers speech following election night at Crystal Gardens in Victoria, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5968367/canada-election-pharmacare/">Justin Trudeau was much more vague</a>, promising $6 billion over four years as a “downpayment” on pharmacare without really explaining what that meant. The <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-party-platforms-guide-canadian-federal-election-2019/#pharmacare">Conservatives in the past opposed pharmacare</a>, and all Andrew Scheer said during the campaign was that his party would work with the provinces to reduce the cost of expensive drugs for orphan diseases.</p>
<p>Implementation of a comprehensive pharmacare program is something that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will push hard on, and conceivably something that Trudeau will support in order to burnish his government’s image as “progressive.” But the Hoskins report <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/corporate/about-health-canada/public-engagement/external-advisory-bodies/implementation-national-pharmacare/final-report.html">called for pharmacare to be brought in gradually</a>, between Jan. 1, 2022 and Jan. 1, 2027, not by next year. </p>
<p>Expect pharmacare but not fast.</p>
<h2>More safe injection sites likely</h2>
<p>The opioid crisis also highlighted major differences among the parties. There were <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/datalab/national-surveillance-opioid-mortality.html">more than 12,800 apparent opioid-related deaths in Canada</a> between January 2016 and March 2019, and over 4,500 deaths in 2018. </p>
<p>In the emergency department in Toronto where I work, we see these people every day. Although the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/opioid-use-declining-cihi-report-1.5323718">number of prescriptions for opioids seems to be dropping</a>, the number of overdose deaths does not appear to be budging. </p>
<p>Safe injection sites are a <a href="http://www.ohtn.on.ca/Pages/Knowledge-Exchange/Rapid-Responses/Documents/RR83-Supervised-Injection-Effectiveness.pdf">proven harm-reduction strategy</a>, but the Conservatives are opposed to expanding the number of these across the country. The Liberals expanded the number of sites from one to more than 40, something that they should be congratulated for, and given that the Conservative position is at odds with every other party, that number will not go down and will likely increase.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298168/original/file-20191022-55701-qmwp68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trudeau makes a health-care policy announcement in Hamilton in September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://transformdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation-in-portugal-setting-the-record-straight/">Portugal decriminalized possession of drugs for personal use in 2001</a> as part of an approach that emphasized a more health-centred approach to drugs, along with wider health and social policy changes. Since then, drug use in the 15-24 age group has declined, as has the number of new cases of HIV and hepatitis B and C. Drug-related deaths also dropped from about 80 in 2001 to 16 in 2012.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/opioid-crisis-election-1.5309759">CBC summary of the positions of the parties</a>, the Liberals outright rejected decriminalization of drugs. Singh said that he would <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-leader-campaign-british-columbia-opioid-crisis-1.5303769">declare a public health emergency about the opioid crisis</a> and stop the criminalization of people dealing with addiction but provided no further details. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1179002172622725120"}"></div></p>
<p>Only the Greens committed to both decriminalization of possession and ensuring that people using opioids could access a safe supply of drugs uncontaminated with substances like fentanyl or carfentanil. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1172139329612898304"}"></div></p>
<p>Sadly, none of the leaders talked about directly addressing <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180912202415.htm">poverty, which is one of the key reasons people turn to opioids in the first place</a>.</p>
<p>However, despite some differences in rhetoric, the Liberals and the NDP are not that far apart on what to do about opioid overdoses. We’ll likely get more safe injection sites and more money put into treatment centres. But while both of these initiatives will be welcome, they are only half-measures and will do little to bring down the number of deaths.</p>
<h2>Don’t hold out hope for a family doctor</h2>
<p>There are many other major problems that our health-care system needs to deal with. These include the gradual encroachment of <a href="http://www.healthcoalition.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Private-Clinics-Report.pdf">private for-profit CT and MRI clinics</a> and the need to enforce the Canada Health Act, for instance with respect to making sure that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/abortion-access-canada-us-bans-1.5140345">abortion is freely available across the country</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/abortion-in-canada-the-election-debates-the-law-and-the-reality-123904">Abortion in Canada: The election debates, the law and the reality</a>
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<p>There is also the poor organization of the primary care system that leaves <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/despite-more-doctors-many-canadians-don-t-have-a-family-physician-report-1.4611149">millions of Canadians without access to a family doctor</a>. The Liberals promised that they would ensure <a href="https://cmajnews.com/2019/10/17/liberals-promise-family-doctors-for-all-but-is-it-realistic/">everyone has access to a family doctor or a health-care team</a> but the delivery of health care is a provincial matter. Aside from promising money to the provinces for implementing changes to the way that primary care is organized, there’s not much that a federal government can do and the Liberals never mentioned conditional cash transfers.</p>
<p>We may have to wait for another election to hear how the parties are going to tackle these and other issues. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In 2016-2019, Joel Lexchin was a paid consultant on two projects: one looking at developing principles for conservative diagnosis (Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation) and a second deciding what drugs should be provided free of charge by general practitioners (Government of Canada, Ontario Supporting Patient Oriented Research Support Unit and the St Michael’s Hospital Foundation). He also received payment for being on a panel at the American Diabetes Association, for a talk at the Toronto Reference Library, for writing a brief in an action for side effects of a drug for Michael F. Smith, Lawyer and from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for presenting at a workshop on conflict-of-interest in clinical practice guidelines. He is currently a member of research groups that are receiving money from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. He is member of the Foundation Board of Health Action International and the Board of Canadian Doctors for Medicare. He receives royalties from University of Toronto Press and James Lorimer & Co. Ltd. for books he has written. </span></em></p>The election results could mean a national pharmacare program will happen, albeit slowly. Canadians can also expect more safe injection sites and money invested in the opioid crisis.Joel Lexchin, Professor Emeritus of Health Policy and Management, York University, Emergency Physician at University Health Network, Associate Professor of Family and Community Medicine, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1244492019-10-16T16:27:46Z2019-10-16T16:27:46ZWhy Canada should embrace a coalition-style ‘fellowship of parties’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297370/original/file-20191016-98640-wpwcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5960%2C2782&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP could all play roles if Canada opts for a coalition government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes/Chris Wattie/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh broke a cardinal rule of Canadian politics recently when he dropped the “c” word — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-coalition-ndp-windsor-1.5320394">coalition</a>. Although coalitions are healthy, democratic and quite common around the world, Canada’s two biggest political parties use it as a blunt object to scare voters. </p>
<p>Canada has been governed by Liberals or Conservatives for its entire <a href="https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=his&document=chap2&lang=e">152-year history</a>, and in all that time, neither party has seriously delivered changes to the electoral system that would reflect what voters ask for at the ballot box. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to let go of power, especially when you allow yourself to believe you’re revered. That’s the stuff of dictatorships, though, and it should have no role in a democracy. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297162/original/file-20191015-98661-1fc9l1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trudeau and Singh chat following a recent leaders’ debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The promise was clear in the <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/macleans-annotates-the-2015-speech-from-the-throne/">2015 Speech from the Throne</a> — first-past-the-post elections were toast and Canada’s antiquated electoral system would finally see the overhaul we so desperately need. First-past-the-post means that in every riding, the candidate who wins the most votes wins. The winner doesn’t need an absolute majority, or more than 50 per cent of the votes.</p>
<p>But the allure of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-for-canada-in-new-zealands-indigenous-friendly-electoral-system-83768">total power</a> that first-past-the-post offers to political parties earning less than 40 per cent of the popular vote is apparently too seductive. So here we are again.</p>
<p>We’re stuck with first-past-the-post in Canada, but that doesn’t mean we have to return to the time-honoured tradition of using our vote as nothing more than a veto of the worst possible option. That’s how Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer want us to understand minority parliaments, because they both thirst for inflated majorities. </p>
<p>We can work creatively to bring about democratic renewal, but doing so requires a firm commitment from key opposition parties like the NDP, Greens and even the Bloc Québécois. </p>
<h2>Look to Trinidad & Tobago</h2>
<p>My proposal is simple — do what Trinidad and Tobago did in their 2010 election. Faced with a mighty incumbent party and a desire to change their first-past-the-post system into something that better translated votes into seats, opposition parties formed the <a href="https://jyoticommunication.blogspot.com/2010/05/column-test-begins-for-kamlas.html">People’s Partnership</a> in which each member maintained their party’s distinctiveness, but came together on several overlapping interests. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297156/original/file-20191015-98661-6or8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trinidad & Tobago Prime Minister-elect Kamla Persad-Bissessar waves to supporters at her party headquarters on the night of the general election in 2010 after her five-party coalition won the vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was not a traditional coalition government. That’s because unlike coalition governments that are cobbled together when a single party fails to win a majority of seats, such an arrangement is carefully negotiated ahead of the election and delivered to citizens so they have a real choice ahead of the election. </p>
<p>Candidates would run in the election under their party’s banner — be it Green, NDP, BQ or as an Independent — with the clear understanding that they intend to work with fellow parties as promised ahead of the vote. </p>
<p>This would lead to far more seats for all these parties. And it puts voters in charge of essentially hiring a government for four years, rather than leaving them to the whim of partisan horse-trading that follows a minority election.</p>
<p>Even if we had a <a href="https://www.fairvote.ca/proportional-representation/">proportional representation</a> system, the best we could hope for is a small party acting as a king- or queen-maker. That lets the small party veto policy, but only if they are willing to fight an election.</p>
<p>This is better, sure, but we should be dispensing with royalty, not trying to exercise just a little more control over it.</p>
<p>You might be thinking: What makes this proposal different from just forming a new party? </p>
<h2>Party loyalty demanded</h2>
<p>A fellowship of parties maintains party distinctiveness, and establishes a temporary basis of unity until the goals are achieved. Forming a new party or switching our electoral model won’t remedy the <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2019/proportional-representation-wont-fix-canadas-accountability-problem/">fundamental democratic failings of our system and its related political culture</a>, in particular how it demands party loyalty. </p>
<p>Jody Wilson-Raybould, former Liberal justice minister and attorney general, recently told <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-september-25-2019-1.5295787/jody-wilson-raybould-wants-a-minority-government-and-is-willing-to-work-with-whomever-is-in-power-1.5295789"><em>The Current</em></a> that the confines of party whips and political agenda are harming the ability of members of Parliament to do what is right, which shaped her decision to run as an Independent.</p>
<p>If the NDP, Greens, BQ and influential Independents like Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott formed a limited partnership — a one-term government collaborating on areas of overlapping interest — they could win the election or, at a minimum, offer a powerful and constructive perspective on critical issues facing the next Parliament. </p>
<p>Such a fellowship would negotiate who would represent the group, and by extension, an actual majority of voters. This person would be both the leader of their individual party and the leader of the one-term fellowship. </p>
<p>Ultimately, their priorities would be up to them to determine, but in my reading of the non-contentious points of agreement in Canada based on what parties have been talking about publicly, it would include:</p>
<p>1) Committing to be a one-term government, with no ambition of seeking re-election. This will protect whoever leads the fellowship from falling victim to the allure of power that contaminated Justin Trudeau and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/msj-rejects-kamlas-unity-call-6.2.908614.a92abf41fc">former Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissesser</a>, who both got cold feet when it came time to deliver on electoral reform. It cost Persad-Bissesser her job, and Trinidad & Tobago their chance at democratic renewal. </p>
<p>The People’s Partnership in Trinidad accomplished lots in its tenure in office, but failed to overcome the hubris of majority power. They had no one-term commitment, and sought to preserve their own majority status in subsequent elections, which they lost. We must learn from that mistake in Canada — a one-term commitment solidifies a serious promise to Canadian voters. </p>
<p>2) Working toward democratic renewal, including lowering the voting age from 18 to 16. Much has been done by all parties on this in the last Parliament, and it should be resumed. <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5962709/montreal-climate-strike-photographs/">Teenagers are more politically engaged</a> than ever, and if <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-oct-3-2019-1.5306425/thursday-october-3-2019-full-episode-transcript-1.5307937">16-year-olds</a> can drive, carry a gun in the Canadian Army Reserves and give sexual consent, they should be able to vote.</p>
<p>3) Addressing the <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/09/24/Takeaways-Canada-UN-Climate-Emergency-Meeting-New-York/">climate emergency</a> and its broad implications, including Indigenous sovereignty and provincial jurisdiction.</p>
<p>4) Expanding national <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5882960/what-is-pharmacare-canada/">pharmacare</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5951503/election-2019-toronto-child-care/">daycare</a></p>
<p>5) Marginally increasing taxes on the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5981369/canada-election-2019-tax-cuts-hikes/">wealthiest</a>. </p>
<p>6) Building nation-to-nation relationships with Indigenous Peoples across the country instead of reducing their concerns <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/unreserved/unreserved-heads-to-the-polls-1.5314954/we-seem-to-have-completely-fallen-off-the-radar-an-indigenous-take-on-the-2019-election-1.5315050">to pipelines</a>. This includes enshrining the principles <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP)</a> into Canadian law.</p>
<p>It ain’t perfect, but it’s a concrete start.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ajay Parasram is affiliated with The MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance as well as the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, NS Office. </span></em></p>We’re stuck with first-past-the-post electoral system in Canada, but that doesn’t mean we have to use our vote as nothing more than a veto of the worst possible option.Ajay Parasram, Assistant Professor and Founding Fellow, MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1246822019-10-14T11:42:49Z2019-10-14T11:42:49ZA feminist take on the Canadian federal election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296749/original/file-20191012-96226-jmfdm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=243%2C0%2C4263%2C2912&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Party leader Elizabeth May take part in the the Federal leaders French language debate in Gatineau, Que. on Oct. 10, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As feminist scholars, we have been closely watching the election debates and media coverage to see if and how equity, diversity and gender are discussed. So far, little of substance has been said about how they propose to care for Canadians, particularly those located at the intersections of gender, race and colonial power. </p>
<p>It is therefore no surprise that a recent <a href="https://www.refinery29.com/en-ca/canadian-election-poll-women-voters"><em>refinery29</em></a> survey of 1,000 women found that 45 per cent of them felt that the government’s actions have had no effect on their lives.</p>
<p>For us, a key question for this upcoming election is how do the key parties propose to care for Canadians, especially those most disadvantaged? </p>
<h2>A lens of care</h2>
<p>As middle-class academics, we represent a privileged group in society. Nonetheless, we are part of diverse communities whose lived and historic experiences of racism, sexism and various forms of exclusion are inscribed in our collective knowledge, making us deeply aware of the penalties and privileges in the spaces we occupy. For this reason, we have decided to approach this election using a care lens. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814782781/">care lens</a> emphasizes relational and contextual approaches to social and political life, focusing on the needs of individuals and of communities. Although care is essential for survival, the idea of “care” has been feminized and in the process, demoted as a concept and relegated to feel-good and nurturing sentiments. </p>
<p>Yet, according to care theorists Joan Tronto and Berenice Fisher, care is “<a href="https://www.sunypress.edu/p-943-circles-of-care.aspx">everything that we do to maintain, continue and repair our ‘world,’ so that we can live in it as well as possible. That world includes our bodies, ourselves, and our environment, all of which we seek to interweave in a complex, life-sustaining web.</a>”</p>
<p>Applying a care lens to proposed policies on child care, health and equity forces us to examine which women are likely to be affected the most? Which measures promised in all these platforms actually benefit women’s lives?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C62%2C3113%2C1868&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296748/original/file-20191012-96226-s613a4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leader of the Bloc Quebecois Yves-Francois Blanchet, left to right, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, TVA host Pierre Bruneau, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh pose for a photo at the TVA french debate for the 2019 federal election in Montreal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Joel Lemay</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Party platforms</h2>
<p>Two distinct conceptualizations of care underpin the major party platforms. </p>
<p>For the Liberals and <a href="https://www.conservative.ca">the Conservatives</a>, care is a siloed policy issue, defined narrowly in terms of <a href="https://2019.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/292/2019/09/Forward-A-real-plan-for-the-middle-class.pdf">a service provided</a>. For <a href="https://action.ndp.ca/page/-/2019/Q2/2019-06-19_Commitments-Doc_EN.pdf">the NDP</a> and the <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/sites/default/files/platform_2019_web_update_oct_6.pdf">Green Party</a>, care is viewed as a foundation for a just society. </p>
<p>These perspectives result in vastly different policy orientations. </p>
<p>As a service, the questions of who cares and for whom are obscured, resulting in policy proposals that reproduce systems of oppression and privilege based on class, race and ethnicity, religion, gender, ability and sexuality. For example, when the Liberals promise, “<a href="https://2019.liberal.ca/our-platform/first-responders/">We will take care of the people who take care of us</a>,” they are referring to firefighters, first responders and police officers. </p>
<p>This stance obscures the essential care work of women in families and communities. Similarly, for the Conservatives, who have <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-conservative-platform-unveiled-1.5318850">at this late stage</a>, come out with their full platform, care refers strictly to services such as childcare, homecare and healthcare, masking the full range of care performed by (mostly) women.</p>
<p>When care is conceptualized as a foundation, policy initiatives aim to create a “caring society” based on equality, anti-colonialism, anti-racism and dignity. Only the NDP and the Greens explicitly acknowledge the realities and impacts of racism, as well as the ongoing violence of colonialism, the unique marginalization experienced by Indigenous women and the criminalization of racialized minorities. </p>
<p>They call for structural change to address poverty and discrimination, including targeted measures for women, LGBTQ+, seniors, Indigenous Peoples, people living with disabilities and racialized folks. Thus, there is recognition that how we organize and enable care is political — a choice embedded in multiple and complex power relations. </p>
<h2>Shortcomings</h2>
<p>At the same time, there remain silences and shortcomings across all of the major parties. </p>
<p>For instance, in increasing access to palliative care and child care none of the platforms effectively address the systemic, chronic and precarious underemployment of the women, often racialized women, who provide care in these situations. </p>
<p>While all the parties embrace gender equity, it is not clear they fully understand the intersectional dimensions of women’s lives. And, most obvious, only the Liberal party has gestured, weakly, to intervening against legislation that discriminates against religious minorities in Québec.</p>
<p>All four political parties promise to end gender-based violence, with the Liberals, NDP and Green Party specifically referencing violence against Indigenous women and the recommendations of the <a href="https://www.mmiwg-ffada.ca/">Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous women</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296750/original/file-20191012-96226-9g6uio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green Party Leader Elizabeth May waves as she walks on stage for the French-language leaders’ debate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, most of the platforms are short on actual policy prescriptions. </p>
<p>The Greens and NDP call for more shelters and address the economic costs of violence. The Greens offer safe, public transit and services in rural areas, while the NDP promises more stable funding for women’s and community organizations. At the same time, the Liberals are offering more funding for research on women’s health issues and paediatric cancer research. For refugees, only the NDP and the Greens promise to dismantle the Third Safe Country agreement with the United States, which has jeopardized the lives of many fleeing from violence.</p>
<p>All party platforms contain promises to fix the current state of the country. Yet, for both the NDP and the Greens, whose platforms offer the most in terms of care for diverse women, there is no past record with which to compare and assess whether these promises are likely to materialize in actual benefits. </p>
<p>Will they be able to walk the talk or are they likely to succumb to the short-sightedness of our governing parties, both present and past? Will the promise to care be realized, or will the power of the status quo prevail? </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yasmin Jiwani receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesca Scala receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Paterson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Three feminist scholars evaluate the political platforms of Canada’s major political parties.Yasmin Jiwani, Professor of Communication Studies; Research Chair on Intersectionality, Violence and Resistance, Concordia UniversityFrancesca Scala, Professor of Political Science, Concordia UniversityStephanie Paterson, Professor, Political Science, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1244822019-10-07T21:10:10Z2019-10-07T21:10:10ZThe baffling indifference of Canadian voters to child-care proposals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295633/original/file-20191004-118205-keqetr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C0%2C3235%2C2272&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is seen at a daycare centre in Toronto in September 2019. His party is proposing a major investment in child care, but why don't voters care?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal NDP recently announced that if elected, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5972553/ndp-childcare-spaces-campaign-promise/">it would spend $10 billion over four years to create 500,000 new child-care spaces</a>. These spaces would be free for some parents and capped at $10 a day for everyone by 2030. </p>
<p>The federal Liberals’ child-care agenda focuses on <a href="https://2019.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/292/2019/09/Forward-A-real-plan-for-the-middle-class.pdf">before- and after-school care, with the party pledging to add 250,000 spaces and lower costs by 10 per cent</a>. </p>
<p>The Conservatives have no specific promises on child care so far, though the party will not release its full platform until Oct. 11. </p>
<p>The Greens have pledged to work with the provinces and territories on an affordable and universal child-care system and to boost funding <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/sites/default/files/platform_2019_en_web_-_update_sep17.pdf">by $1 billion per year until spending equals one per cent of GDP</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the fanfare and the price tag associated with these programs, history suggests child care tends to be a surprisingly weak influence at the ballot box. </p>
<h2>In the national spotlight</h2>
<p>Child care has been on the national agenda for the past six decades, at least. The 1970 report of the Royal Commission on the Status of Women recommended the establishment of a publicly funded universal child-care program. </p>
<p>The federal Liberals have been promising child care for nearly three decades, and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2010/02/03/paul_martin_laments_loss_of_childcare_program_he_built.html">had adopted a program under former prime minister Paul Martin</a>, signed by all 10 provinces, that would have seen the expenditure of $5 billion over five years. </p>
<p>Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, elected in 2006, cancelled Martin’s program. And in the subsequent election in 2008, voters didn’t punish Harper for scrapping the program. Only 68 people out of nearly 2,800 surveyed by the 2008 Canadian Election Study (CES) stated that child care was the top issue for them in the campaign. (All CES data are available through the <a href="https://www.queensu.ca/cora/our-data/data-holdings">Canadian Opinion Research Archive (CORA)</a> at Queen’s University).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ces-eec.arts.ubc.ca/english-section/home/">2015 Canadian Election Study</a> included the same open-ended question asking voters the most important issue facing them personally in the election — it’s a standard question on election surveys. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1670%2C496%2C4008%2C2801&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1670%2C496%2C4008%2C2801&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295626/original/file-20191004-118244-1b4jcoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer holds a baby at a child-care facility in Toronto in August 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov</span></span>
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<p>More than 7,500 people participated in the survey, and only 20 of them chose child care as their paramount issue in 2015. Most cited the economy, jobs or taxes as their primary concerns, and among those who prioritized social policy, health care and education garnered the most attention. </p>
<p>The 2015 Election Study also presented voters with a list of common campaign issues, including child care, and asked respondents to check all of the issues they really care about. Only 16 per cent of voters in 2015 chose child care. </p>
<p>By way of comparison, 18 per cent said they really cared about reforming the electoral system, 28 per cent said they cared about gun control, 18 per cent about Indigenous issues and 23 per cent about military involvement in the Middle East. The point here is that most Canadians “really care” about many other issues other than child care.</p>
<h2>Surprising lack of interest</h2>
<p>The low resonance of child care for the electorate is surprising.</p>
<p>Most Canadians have children, and child-care costs are high and rising. Child care in Canada <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oecd-child-care-costs-1.3815954">is pricier than most other countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),</a> and costs have risen dramatically in recent years, according to various studies. </p>
<p>Across the OECD, the average two-parent family spends 15 per cent of its income on child care, compared to 22 per cent in Canada. Costs are even higher in large urban centres. In its <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/study-reveals-highest-and-lowest-child-care-fees-canadian-cities-2018">annual report on child care</a>, the <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca">Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives</a> reports that Toronto has the highest cost in the country, an average of $1,685 per month, or $20,220 per year for an infant spot.</p>
<p>This is higher than undergraduate tuition for most programs at Canadian universities. The cost of a preschool spot in Toronto is $1,367 per month, <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/community-partners/social-housing-providers/affordable-housing-operators/current-city-of-toronto-average-market-rents-and-utility-allowances/">nearly as much as the average monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the city</a>, and far out of reach for many residents.</p>
<p>Not only is child care expensive, but it’s used by a majority of parents. Statistics Canada reports that <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/89-652-x/89-652-x2014005-eng.htm">60 per cent of families with children aged two to four in Canada use child care</a> of some sort, and the number could be higher if there were more spaces available.</p>
<p>Why doesn’t a policy area like this have more power to drive votes? </p>
<p>Some families would save tens of thousands of dollars per child, not to mention all the additional benefits associated with greater labour force participation and flexibility, contribution to gender equality and more. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-quality-early-childhood-education-reduces-need-for-later-special-ed-112275">New research shows quality early childhood education reduces need for later special ed</a>
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<p>Quality child care contributes to the socialization of children, early childhood development and school readiness — all of which have positive cumulative impacts.</p>
<p>If Canadians want to advance financially, few policy innovations would offer the same boon to voters’ bank accounts than a public child-care program. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada</span></em></p>If Canadians want to advance financially, few policy innovations would offer the same boon to voters’ bank accounts than a public child-care program. So why doesn’t it drive votes?Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, Associate Professor, Political Studies; Director, Queen's Institute of Intergovernmental Relations; Director, Canadian Opinion Research Archive, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229352019-09-11T14:51:29Z2019-09-11T14:51:29ZCanada’s Liberals make it hard for green voters to love them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291757/original/file-20190910-190061-cl97zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C167%2C4412%2C2810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters take part in a pipeline expansion demonstration in Vancouver in June 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent appearance in the province of Ontario of Premier Doug Ford’s anti-carbon pricing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-anti-carbon-tax-stickers-1.5257747">gas pump stickers</a> reinforced the central role environmental issues may play in this federal election campaign.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/appeal-carbon-ford-ontario-supreme-1.5262871">Ontario</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-carbon-tax-supreme-court-appeal-1.5157465">Saskatchewan</a> are also appealing, to the Supreme Court of Canada, rulings by courts in their own provinces that the federal backstop carbon pricing scheme is constitutional.</p>
<p>Climate change and carbon pricing are already well-established as major fracture points among the main federal parties in Canada. The Liberals, NDP and Greens all favour some form of national carbon-pricing regime to combat climate change. <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/climate-and-jobs">New Democrats</a> and <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/media-release/2019-05-16/elizabeth-may-unveils-mission-possible-%E2%80%93-green-climate-action-plan">the Greens</a> have consistently pressed for an approach on climate change that’s more aggressive than the one the Liberals are taking.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives</a>, for their part, while acknowledging climate change is a significant problem, oppose any form of comprehensive carbon pricing. They have proposed a charge on large industrial facilities that emit greenhouse gases above a limit they have yet to specify.</p>
<p>Although similar in some ways to the Liberals’ <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/output-based-pricing-system.html">output-based carbon pricing mechanism</a> for industrial facilities, their proposal stops there. </p>
<p>The sources covered by the Conservative proposal account, at best, for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">about half</a> of Canada’s emissions. There is no real plan for the remainder other than a home energy retrofit program and investments in research and new technologies. </p>
<h2>Climate change a key issue</h2>
<p>Public opinion polling has shown <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/is-climate-change-an-emergency-and-do-canadians-support-a-made-in-canada-green-new-deal/">rising concern</a> in Canada about climate change. Public attention has been focused by reports from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, and Canadians’ own experiences of unprecedented <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/climate-change-is-making-wildfires-in-canada-hotter-and-more-dangerous/">wildfires</a> in Western Canada and Ontario over the past few years, and of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/30/canada-flooding-quebec-montreal-justin-trudeau-climate-change">this spring’s flooding</a> in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-in-every-riding-support-climate-action-new-research-shows-122918">Canadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows</a>
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<p>A substantial majority of Canadians now seem prepared <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/broad-support-for-a-wide-range-of-policies-including-carbon-pricing-to-help-reduce-emissions-and-fight-climate-change/">to accept</a> some form of carbon pricing, a view buttressed by the Liberals’ politically deft delivery of rebates to most taxpayers.</p>
<p>All of this supports a Liberal strategy to repeat key elements of their 2015 campaign that led to their victory. Four years ago, the Liberals sought to consolidate moderate and progressive voters who might have otherwise cast ballots for the NDP, the Greens or the Bloc Québécois as the best option to prevent an anti-environment Conservative victory.</p>
<p>Yet the Liberals have created more than a few problems for themselves this time around. The most prominent and controversial has been their aggressive support for major expansions of carbon-intensive export infrastructure, most notably the approval, purchase and re-approval of the Alberta-to-British Columbia <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269">Trans Mountain</a> pipeline expansion.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291755/original/file-20190910-190016-1tzgfd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The re-approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has angered environmental voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The expansion of oilsands production facilitated by the Trans Mountain and other pipelines <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/01/21/news/ipcc-authors-urge-neb-consider-climate-impacts-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion">may undermine</a> much of what is gained in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through carbon pricing and other measures. </p>
<p>A phaseout of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2018/12/canadas-coal-power-phase-out-reaches-another-milestone.html">coal-fired</a> electricity has been accelerated, but a much-discussed <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/managing-pollution/energy-production/fuel-regulations/clean-fuel-standard.html">low-carbon fuel</a> standard has yet to see light of day. </p>
<h2>Other headaches for the Liberals</h2>
<p>Complications arise on other files as well. </p>
<p>One of central features of <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/New-plan-for-a-strong-middle-class.pdf">2015 Liberal platform</a> was a commitment to “restore protections” lost through changes to the federal environmental assessment process, the Fisheries Act regarding fish habitat and the Navigable Waters Protection Act. The changes were contained in former prime minister Stephen Harper’s notorious <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-rough-guide-to-bill-c-38/">Bill C-38</a>.</p>
<p>The final results of the Liberal efforts — in the form of Bills C-68 and C-69, adopted in June — are a mixed bag. The best outcomes are contained in <a href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/canada-has-a-new-fisheries-act-how-does-it-stack-up/">Bill C-68</a> since it restores, and some argue actually improves, the fish habitat protection provisions of the Fisheries Act. </p>
<p>The situation with C-69 is much less positive. </p>
<p>The bill was subject to vociferous opposition from Western Canada and Conservative members of the Senate, even though the end result suggests that opposition wasn’t remotely justified. The bill’s provisions around navigable waters effectively leave Harper’s C-38 framework intact, stripping federal protection from all but a few hundred of Canada’s millions of navigable waterways.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cooling-the-rhetoric-on-canadas-environmental-assessment-efforts-113539">Cooling the rhetoric on Canada's environmental assessment efforts</a>
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<p>The situation with respect to the federal assessment process isn’t much better. The bill does contain <a href="https://www.wcel.org/media-release/environmental-groups-give-federal-impact-assessment-act-c-grade">modest improvements</a> to the assessment process relative to the C-38 version — notably removing restrictions on public participation and requiring better justifications of assessment decisions. </p>
<p>However, regulations announced this summer make it clear that the range of projects like mines, oilsands projects, dams and pipelines subject to the federal environmental assessment process will actually be <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/2019/08/21/government-backslides-climate-commitments-new-regulation/">substantially narrower</a> than they were under Harper’s legislation. </p>
<p>A promised trigger for reviews based on the potential greenhouse gas emissions associated with projects has disappeared altogether. Ironically, the Liberals’ last-minute cave-in to the resource sector has done nothing to win any good will in Western Canada — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5829158/constitutional-challenge-bill-c69-ucp-alberta-industrial-projects/">has stated</a> that he intends to pursue a constitutional challenge against the legislation anyway. </p>
<h2>Voting as an environmentalist</h2>
<p>Given a Liberal record that is decidedly mixed, and a Conservative official opposition party that offers little hope of progress and very real risks of serious retrenchment, what are environmentally concerned voters to do?</p>
<p>The situation is further complicated by the consideration that despite substantial efforts to establish its environmental bona fides, even at the cost <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4227693/jagmeet-singh-trans-mountain-bc/">of alienating</a> Rachel Notley’s former NDP government in Alberta over the Trans Mountain pipeline issue, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats appear to have entered the election campaign in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-nomination-candidates-1.5263840">serious disarray</a>. The party now faces increasingly serious challenges from Elizabeth May’s Greens in some parts of the country. </p>
<p>Nationally, the Green party appears well-positioned to beat its previous 2008 high of 940,000 votes in the October election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291783/original/file-20190910-190044-ztp4zp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">May is arrested by RCMP officers after joining protesters outside Kinder Morgan’s facility in Burnaby, B.C., in March 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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<p>A major challenge for the Greens remains that their voters tend to be widely distributed geographically, meaning that their successes rarely translate into seats. In fact, the party’s impressive 2008 vote performance produced precisely zero elected members to the House of Commons. </p>
<p>The Greens are likely to do better this time, reinforced by strong performances by its smattering of recently elected members at the provincial level in <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-win-three-seats-in-british-columbia-election-1.3406473">British Columbia</a>, <a href="https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/guelph/ontario-history-made-as-guelph-goes-green-1.3962669">Ontario</a>,<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-greens-pei-election-1.5108845">Prince Edward Island</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/green-party-new-brunswick-election-1.4835192">New Brunswick.</a></p>
<p>Seats in southern B.C., Vancouver Island, Atlantic Canada and a scattering of other locations, like the Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph region in Ontario, are possible. Whether the result amounts to enough to hold a balance of power in what could be a <a href="https://www.lispop.ca/seat-projection/federal">minority parliament</a> is anyone’s guess.</p>
<p>At the same time, voting Green risks further splitting the environmental vote, helping the Conservatives, particularly in tight races.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberal-environmental-contradictions-could-pave-way-for-conservative-win-117362">Liberal environmental contradictions could pave way for Conservative win</a>
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<p>There’s also a real risk <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/checkup/what-motivates-you-to-participate-in-this-year-s-federal-election-1.4973867/millennials-could-swing-the-2019-election-but-parties-need-to-engage-them-says-pollster-1.4976824">of younger</a> voters choosing not to cast ballots at all in the face of a series of unattractive choices. </p>
<p>Given the Conservatives’ very <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-youth-turnout-1.5256600">loyal and reliable base</a>, that trend could work in their favour. </p>
<p>There’s no doubt this election will have a major impact on Canada’s efforts to combat climate change. But how best to approach the available choices remains a serious dilemma for Canadian voters as they head to the ballot box. </p>
<p>Election campaigns are often clarifying events, and this race is likely to deliver that and more for the environment. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122935/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation.</span></em></p>This election will have a major impact on Canada’s efforts to combat climate change. But how best to approach the available choices on the ballot remains a serious dilemma for Canadian voters.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223442019-09-09T19:49:36Z2019-09-09T19:49:36ZWith a federal election upon us, an appeal for politicians to stop buying us off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290543/original/file-20190902-175673-an2p3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4896%2C3261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politicians should stop trying to bribe us with our own money and instead propose fundamental structural changes to how governments operate and budget themselves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Larry the Liquidator said in that <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0102609/plotsummary">not-so-classic film</a> <em>Other People’s Money</em>:</p>
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<p>“I love money more than the things it can buy … but what I love more than money is other people’s money.”</p>
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<p>With the federal election upon us, it’s time to issue a call for politicians to stop buying us off with our own money.</p>
<p>Every day brings politicians to a podium, stating how they will expand this service, increase support to that group and reduce some tax. But most of us understand that politicians are using our money to buy our votes. </p>
<p>At my tender age, I have endured well over 50 federal, provincial and municipal elections. Just for once I would like politicians of all parties to treat me as if I had a brain. Rather than just bribing me with my own money, I would like to see politicians propose structural changes to the way government works and budgets.</p>
<h2>SNC Lavalin</h2>
<p>Let’s start with SNC Lavalin. Regardless of whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau apologizes to the Canadian people, to Parliament or to Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, he should first and foremost put a stop to the ongoing corporate-political incest.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-justin-trudeau-succumb-to-corporate-pressure-116134">Why does Justin Trudeau succumb to corporate pressure?</a>
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<p>The corporate-political nexus that creates an inward-facing circle of interest between industry and government mars any pretense of even-handedness in economic policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/david-lewis">The NDP’s David Lewis</a>,
the last real firebrand in Canadian federal politics, got it exactly right when he railed against the massive subsidies and tax relief received by national and international corporations.</p>
<p>This issue offers a political opportunity for all parties this election season, but their silence suggests either they have no idea how to proceed, or they think the issue is unimportant. Or less benignly, they recognize that, once in power, they too will need to reward their groupies and <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RentSeeking.html">rent-seekers</a>, whether they’re unions, environmental groups or corporations. </p>
<p>This election campaign, it would be helpful if political candidates recognize the problem and explain how they plan to deal with it.</p>
<h2>Managing, not spending, our money</h2>
<p>Rather than telling us how they will spend our money, political parties at the federal and provincial levels should tell us how they propose to manage our money. </p>
<p>Some politicians advocate simply cutting expenditures, which appears to be the fashion in several provinces with conservative governments. But just slashing spending is mindless and divisive, inviting sharp reversals when governments change.</p>
<p>Whipsawing budgets simply reinforces the determination to make sure the “good guys” win next time and when they do, reward their supporters.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-buck-stops-elsewhere-how-corporate-power-trumps-politics-41992">The buck stops elsewhere: how corporate power trumps politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Let’s consider some concrete ways government can manage our money better. But first let’s rule out two ideas that seem not to work so well.</p>
<p>One proposal that seems reasonable is <a href="https://publicsectordigest.com/multi-year-budgeting-ca">multi-year</a> financing where governments set two- and three-year budgets as opposed the current norm of annual budgets.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, politicians succumb to myopia, and tend to respond to immediate political pressures, spending big in Year 1, vowing to rein in the spending in Years 2 and 3. Not surprisingly, that rarely happens.</p>
<p>But where such multi-year budgets <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2019.02.007">have been attempted</a>, governments were challenged to maintain fiscal discipline and only seemed to <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publications/government-spending/are-fiscal-rules-effective-restraint-government-debt">spend more</a>. </p>
<h2>Strong fiscal rules</h2>
<p>Now consider the idea of strong fiscal rules as advocated by the late Nobel Laureate <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Buchanan.html">James Buchanan.</a> Criticized by some as the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-architect-of-the-radical-right/528672/">original architect of the radical right</a>, he nonetheless spent much of his career developing proposals to constrain politicians he perceived as failing to act in the interests of the electorate, but instead were motivated by their own self-interest. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290588/original/file-20190902-175668-poibpc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">James Buchanan is seen in this 2010 photo. He died in 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Creative Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Key to Buchanan’s approach was creating specific conditions that tie the hands of government in spending our money. </p>
<p>First, he proposed limits on annual increases in spending or debt. An example of that is the Swiss “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmitchell/2012/04/26/switzerlands-debt-brake-is-a-role-model-for-spending-control-and-fiscal-restraint/#7bc41e235a92">brake rule</a>.” It limits public expenditure increases to no more than the average revenue increase over several years as calculated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, which has some independence from politicians. </p>
<p>Independence in managing the brake is a second condition of a sound fiscal rule. The Swiss brake has support from the left and right, since it maintains spending when revenues drop due to recession and constrains spending in good years when revenues increase.</p>
<p>The final condition on the Swiss brake is to set tax rates constitutionally, which limits the discretion of politicians to boost revenue just by raising taxes. </p>
<p>If this tax constraint did not exist, politicians could increase spending by raising taxes, since that boosts revenue and then allows expenditures to increase. Balanced budget legislation, which outwardly seems to be a good fiscal rule, is actually a sham as long as governments have the ability to increase revenues just by raising taxes. </p>
<h2>Tax on wealth</h2>
<p>Of course, it’s politically difficult to raise some taxes, especially the GST or sales taxes.</p>
<p>But a tax on wealth, boosting the tax rate on high incomes, and socking it to corporations could have wider voter support and offer an opening to raise revenues. </p>
<p>Fiscal budget rules must make it difficult to increase all types of taxes. Embedding rates constitutionally, as the Swiss do, is one approach, where changes require super-majorities (67 per cent of Parliament) or complex validation processes, such as support by Parliament and most, if not all, provinces and territories. </p>
<p>This may seem all very abstract and theoretical. But as an economist, my point is simple. </p>
<p>Elections are the time for politicians to present the electorate with structural options on how we run our country, and not to try to win us over with our own money. </p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory C Mason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rather than just bribing us with our own money, politicians on the campaign trail should propose structural changes to the way government works and budgets itself.Gregory C Mason, Associate Professor of Economics, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1229182019-09-05T17:56:11Z2019-09-05T17:56:11ZCanadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290969/original/file-20190904-175663-142n1nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C368%2C5565%2C2971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">According to new research, the majority of Canadians in all but three ridings across the country believe their province has already felt the effects of climate change. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s fall election is in full swing and climate policy will likely be at the centre of debate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/pricing-carbon-pollution/">trumpeting</a> their carbon pricing policy, while Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives want to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">get rid of it</a>. Meanwhile, Elizabeth May and her <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-green-party-wave-could-spread-across-canada-115970">newly relevant</a> Greens think Canada <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/mission-possible">must do more</a> to manage the climate crisis.</p>
<p>But where do Canadian voters stand on this issue?</p>
<p>Our research team, based at the Université de Montréal and the University of California Santa Barbara, has new public opinion data to answer this question. Using recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159774">statistical and political science advances</a>, we can estimate Canadian opinion in every single riding across the country (except for the less densely populated territories, where data collection is sparse). And we’ve released on <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">online tool</a> so anyone can see how their local riding compares to others across the country.</p>
<h2>Canadians are concerned about climate change</h2>
<p>Our results reinforce what is increasingly clear: climate change is on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/will-climate-change-be-a-ballot-box-question-in-2019/">the minds of Canadians</a>, and not just in urban or coastal communities. A majority of Canadians in every single riding believe the climate is changing. The highest beliefs are in Halifax, where 93 per cent of the public believe climate change is happening. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290798/original/file-20190903-175663-1eqbk48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe climate change is happening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And a majority of Canadians in all but three ridings think their province has already experienced the impacts of climate change. These beliefs are particularly high in Québec, where 79 per cent feel the impacts of climate change have already arrived. </p>
<p>Canadians also want to see the government take the climate threat seriously. </p>
<p>A majority of voters supports <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/05/what-is-emissions-trading">emissions trading</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/31/carbon-tax-cap-and-trade">Carbon taxation</a> is more divisive, yet more people support carbon taxation than don’t in 88 per cent of Canadian ridings. </p>
<p>And the handful of ridings that <a href="https://www.umontreal.ca/climat/engl/">don’t support</a> the Trudeau government’s carbon pricing policy — Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, for example — are already in Conservative hands. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-what-the-carbon-tax-means-for-you-114671">Here's what the carbon tax means for you</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In other words, the path to a majority government — or even a minority government — goes through many ridings where Canadians are worried about climate change and want the government to take aggressive action.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-1338.2012.00563.x">Compared to the United States</a>, the Canadian public believes climate change is happening in far higher shares. Even Canadian ridings where belief in climate change is the lowest have comparable beliefs to liberal states like Vermont and Washington. Overall Canadian support for a carbon tax is higher than support for a carbon tax in California, often thought of as the most environmentally progressive U.S. state.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290804/original/file-20190903-175696-h9b3js.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of Canadians, by riding, who believe their province has already been impacted by climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Importantly, support for specific climate policies remains high in provinces that have already implemented climate laws. For instance, support for a carbon tax in British Columbia, where this policy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.011">was introduced in 2008</a>, is the second highest in the country at 61 per cent (Prince Edward Island has the highest support). Similarly, support for emissions trading is second highest in Québec, again just behind P.E.I., where a carbon market <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Houle2/publication/276289377_The_Political_Economy_of_California_and_Quebec's_Cap-and-Trade/links/5555f92508aeaaff3bf5ea49/The-Political-Economy-of-California-and-Quebecs-Cap-and-Trade.pdf">was implemented in 2013</a>.</p>
<h2>Even Conservative ridings want action</h2>
<p>We don’t find evidence of a backlash to carbon taxes or emissions trading — Canadians living in provinces with substantive climate policies continue to support them. Instead, we find substantial support for climate action in the ridings of Canadian politicians who have done the most to undermine Canada’s climate policy. </p>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s provincial riding matches up with the federal riding of Etobicoke North, where 62 per cent of the public supports emissions trading. In other words, Ford ignored the majority will of his own constituents when he acted to repeal Ontario’s policy last year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-new-climate-plan-is-far-from-conservative-108406">Ontario's new climate plan is far from conservative</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290797/original/file-20190903-175714-hxz319.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riding-level public opinion estimates for the Saskatchewan riding of Regina-Qu'Apelle, currently represented by Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same is true federally. In Scheer’s own riding of Regina-Qu'Appelle, support for carbon taxation is at 52 per cent. Only 41 per cent of Scheer’s own constituents oppose a carbon tax. He too is offside with the people he represents.</p>
<h2>The political risks of opposing climate reforms</h2>
<p>Our results emphasize how the media can sometimes misinterpret electoral mandates. In Ontario, Doug Ford promised to repeal the province’s emissions trading scheme — and won. But the former Conservative leader, Patrick Brown, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pc-convention-1.3477623">supported</a> carbon pricing while enjoying a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4037303/ontario-pcs-election-poll/beta/">comfortable lead in the polls</a>.</p>
<p>There are lots of reasons why Canadians choose to change their government, but opposition to carbon pricing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1608659">hasn’t been one of them</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Climate science</a> is clear on the need to rapidly decrease greenhouse gas emissions to avert the most disastrous consequences of climate change. As a northern country, <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-adaptation/10029">climate impacts</a> in Canada are already larger than in other places. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-frequent-fires-could-dramatically-alter-boreal-forests-and-emit-more-carbon-122355">More frequent fires could dramatically alter boreal forests and emit more carbon</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research, which the public can explore, shows that Canadians everywhere — from the most Conservative to the most Liberal ridings — are united in understanding that climate change poses a major threat to the people and places they cherish. The election provides an opportunity for Canadians have a say in the future of climate policy in their country — and all Canadian politicians should take note. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matto Mildenberger has received funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Environment Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erick Lachapelle receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). He is a researcher with EcoAnalytics. Funding for individual survey waves (between 2011-2018) was provided by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Ministère des Relations et de la Francophonie, EcoAnalytics, the Public Policy Forum, Smart Prosperity Institute, Canada 2020, l'Institut de l'énergie Trottier, and la Chaire d'études politiques et économiques américaines. </span></em></p>Climate change could take centre stage during Canada’s federal election.Matto Mildenberger, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraErick Lachapelle, Associate professor, Département de science politique, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1159702019-04-25T21:51:00Z2019-04-25T21:51:00ZThe Green Party wave could spread across Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273169/original/file-20190507-103085-2g9z6t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C130%2C2932%2C1881&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Green Party's Paul Manly celebrates after voting results come in for the Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection on May 6, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There isn’t a bigger environmental politics story in the world right now than the extraordinary results by the Green Party in the recent elections in Canada. </p>
<p>First, there was last month’s outcome in Prince Edward Island. For some observers, the eight seats nabbed by Peter Bevan-Baker’s party were unsurprising. The <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pei-greens-hold-lead-governing-liberals-in-third/">Greens led</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/news/pei-election/green-party-maintains-edge-in-three-way-race-to-the-finish-302716/">in most</a> <a href="http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/0beb9a09-1c1d-415d-a8df-2d63b8ac99d4PEI%20April%2022%202019.pdf">pre-election polls</a>. Bevan-Baker has consistently been ranked the province’s most popular politician. </p>
<p>Don’t let these facts distract from the party’s singular achievement in becoming Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. Its P.E.I. breakthrough built on waves of recent Green Party wins across Canada. </p>
<p>And then the Green Party won again in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith federal byelection, where <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/green-party-bc-win-climate-issues-impact-1.5125696">Paul Manly received 37.1 per cent of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>The results foreshadow the party’s serious prospects at the federal level this fall.</p>
<h2>Why Green Party candidates face an uphill battle</h2>
<p>Parties like the Greens aren’t supposed to do well in countries like Canada, which has a first-past-the-post electoral system where a candidate only needs to receive more votes than any other to win their seat. </p>
<p>Many political scientists think countries with plurality systems can’t sustain more than two viable political parties. This idea is often described as <a href="http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095737871">Duverger’s law</a>, after the French sociologist who first investigated the links between plurality voting systems and political party number in the mid-20th century. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271057/original/file-20190425-121224-uka9pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">P.E.I. Green Party Leader Peter Bevan-Baker and his wife Ann leave the polling station after voting on Apr. 23, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
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<p>The empirical credibility of Duverger’s law is <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/06/20/duvergers-law-is-dead/">up for debate</a>. Canada has never <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414099032007004">conformed well</a> to its predictions. For instance, many federal ridings are contested as three-way races between Conservatives, Liberals and New Democrats.</p>
<p>But political scientists are right to highlight the challenges that small parties face in plurality systems. Voters may support the party, but if they don’t think it can win, they’ll vote for a second-choice party that can. This is the much-discussed problem of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2006.02.003">strategic voting</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, Green Party candidates have a doubly difficult task. Like other candidates, they must persuade voters that their party will best serve Canadians. But unlike other candidates, they also have to persuade voters that enough other Canadians share this same set of preferences. </p>
<p>In political science, we call this a problem of “second-order beliefs.” First-order beliefs are the things individuals think. Second-order beliefs are the beliefs we hold about <em>other</em> people’s beliefs. </p>
<p>Most people underestimate how common pro-environment opinions are within their communities. Even people who personally want climate action <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000321">think the public is less green</a> than is actually the case. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271066/original/file-20190425-121228-1hniej4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Students gather on Parliament Hill protesting for action on climate change on Mar. 15, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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<p>The Green Party’s political agenda is popular among Canadians. For example, we know that <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-canada/">a majority of Canadians in every riding</a> are concerned about climate change. Creating a shared social expectation that voting for the Green Party could elect Green politicians is a whole different story. Yet, the party’s remarkable ability to reshape Canadians’ second-order beliefs is behind this week’s breakthrough.</p>
<h2>How Greens have reshaped public expectations</h2>
<p>The earliest Green victories grew from the power of “star” candidates such as <a href="http://elizabethmaymp.ca/">Elizabeth May</a> and <a href="http://www.andrewweavermla.ca/">Andrew Weaver</a>. These individuals received outsized local media attention during election campaigns. And they were party leaders, which can make it easier for voters to coordinate their belief that a local candidate is viable. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271072/original/file-20190425-121241-fftfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Green Party leader Elizabeth May speaks to reporters after the tabling of the 2019 federal budget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<p>Winning the role of the official Opposition in P.E.I. is a different story altogether. It required voters to believe that the party as a whole was electable, not simply a popular local leader. And this required a series of intensifying green waves across the country. </p>
<p>Beachhead elections by party leaders in British Columbia helped leaders in other provinces persuade voters that Green victories were possible. Suddenly, leaders like Bevan-Baker (P.E.I.), David Coon (New Brunswick) and Mike Schreiner (Ontario) won seats in their legislatures. Weaver, Coon and now Bevan-Baker used this position to grow their caucus in subsequent elections.</p>
<p>In turn, these victories will help federal Green candidates engage Canadians who want social and environmental change. </p>
<p>If P.E.I. can elect a Green opposition, voters may rethink their local Green candidate’s chances. The good showing in Nanaimo could set the stage for competitive Green candidates across the country this fall.</p>
<h2>A unique success at the global scale</h2>
<p>Each wave of Green success reshapes Canadians’ understanding of the possible distribution of electoral outcomes. Each win co-ordinates more and more sympathetic voters. It gives voters permission to express their true preferences instead of their strategic preferences. </p>
<p>Greens <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Green-Challenge-The-Development-of-Green-Parties-in-Europe-1st-Edition/Richardson-Rootes-Lambert/p/book/9780203976999">haven’t achieved</a> this type success in any other plurality system around the world.</p>
<p>Of course, Green Party candidates have done well in proportional representation systems — where seats are given out based on popular vote performance. For example, Green Party leader Winfried Kretschmann <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/winfried-kretschmann-germanys-first-green-minister-president/av-15848924">currently leads</a> the government in the German province of Baden-Württemberg, which has a system of mixed-member proportional representation. </p>
<p>By contrast, plurality systems have never seen anything like the performance by the P.E.I. Greens. Canadian Greens are writing a whole new story. Bit by bit, they are reshaping Canadians’ sense of what is electorally possible. They have been carving out space for themselves in a political landscape that is supposed to be barren for small parties. Green-minded voters around the world will be watching carefully amid the environmental crises that batter our planet today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matto Mildenberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Green Party breakthrough in Prince Edward Island and positive result in British Columbia foreshadows the party’s prospects at the federal level in the fall.Matto Mildenberger, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.