tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/energy-662/articlesEnergy – The Conversation2024-03-28T05:51:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268092024-03-28T05:51:32Z2024-03-28T05:51:32ZCould spending a billion dollars actually bring solar manufacturing back to Australia? It’s worth a shot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584924/original/file-20240328-21-3cqu7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5104%2C2866&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-view-solar-panel-assembly-line-2204939257">IM Imagery/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">announced today</a> it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those in the solar industry, and guarding against supply chain shocks and geopolitical tension. </p>
<p>The announcement is big. At a stroke, the federal government is proposing to directly invest in manufacturing the main technology Australia will rely on to make its power. By 2050, solar should provide most of our electricity – but only if we have enough panels. </p>
<p>What would that look like? Australia was once a world leader in solar energy technology. But while our solar researchers are still highly regarded, we only have one company commercially manufacturing solar panels. That means the SunShot program will likely start by boosting efforts to make modules here using imported cells and module components, before building out the supply chain to make glass for the panels, aluminium frames and, eventually, the solar photovoltaic cells themselves and the pure polysilicon needed to make them. </p>
<p>If we had a solar manufacturing industry able to make a gigawatt’s worth of panels annually, we <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-bank/apvi-silicon-to-solar-detailed-and-overview-reports/">would create</a> around 750 jobs and meet about 20% of our current demand for solar. More jobs would come as the ecosystem grows, including manufacturing glass and aluminium frames. </p>
<p>Critics will say it’s pointless to compete with China’s dominant renewable energy industry. But as climate change worsens and global efforts to go green intensify, we can’t rely on a single country. The backdrop, of course, is the increasing popularity of <a href="https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/what-is-onshoring/">reshoring</a>, where Western countries use public funding to try to bring back manufacturing from nations such as China, as the United States is aiming to do with its <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">mammoth Inflation Reduction Act</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<h2>Can we compete with cheap panels?</h2>
<p>In 1983, UNSW professor Martin Green invented the first PERC solar cell (which stands for Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact). <a href="https://solarmagazine.com/solar-panels/perc-solar-panels/">This cell</a> was better at converting sunlight to electricity than previous cells. His invention is now in use in about 90% of the world’s installed solar panels.</p>
<p>Australian researchers have long been at the forefront of solar development. But where we’ve struggled is in commercialisation and manufacturing. The world’s first solar billionaire, Shi Zhengrong, did his PhD at UNSW before returning to his native China <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/eric-knight-shi-zhengrong-sun-king-eric-knight-3363">to found</a> the multinational solar giant SunTech. Even now, many of China’s top solar firms have connections with Australian researchers. </p>
<p>China became dominant in renewables not simply because of its enormous domestic market and a deep manufacturing base. The Chinese government has long funded solar firms to make their products more competitive. </p>
<p>That’s where Australia’s SunShot would come in, by helping to create the market of suppliers needed to make solar panel manufacturing a reality.</p>
<p>Australia wouldn’t be trying to go for global market share, but rather to substitute its own imports. Currently, only about 1% of the millions of panels we install annually are made in Australia. Even so, as the solar industry surges worldwide, there may well be room for more entrants. </p>
<h2>What would Australian solar manufacturing look like?</h2>
<p>We can’t run before we can walk. Bringing manufacturing back won’t happen overnight. Today’s announcement is short on detail. But we know it draws on work done last year by the Australian PV Institute in a report titled <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/silicon-to-solar-plan-australias-manufacturing-opportunities/">Silicon to Solar</a>, which this article’s lead author worked on. </p>
<p>Realistically, what we’ll have to start with is working with our single existing solar panel manufacturer, Tindo, as well as boosting other market entrants such as the startup SunDrive.</p>
<p>Tindo doesn’t make solar panels from scratch. Instead, it imports cells from overseas and assembles them into modules. </p>
<p>The first step, then, is to grow the market for Australian-made modules using imported products. This is the quickest step in the supply chain to establish.</p>
<p>Then we can begin helping suppliers of other components, such as the special glass to cover the panels, and the aluminium frames. </p>
<p>The next step would be to establish solar cell production lines in Australia and scale them to meet the demand from our own module production lines.</p>
<p>We could then move to the next challenge, turning silicon ingots into the wafers used for cells. Establishing these capabilities in Australia might allow Australia to export these materials to other markets such as the US and Europe.</p>
<p>The final step – and one that will take years and more investment, even if we start planning now – would be to have our own polysilicon factories. A multibillion-dollar factory near Townsville is being planned, with support from the <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/25/quinbrook-to-build-polysilicon-factory-in-australia/">Queensland government</a>.</p>
<p>Turning lower-grade metallurgical silicon into 99.9999% pure polysilicon is hard and expensive. You can’t build a small polysilicon factory – scale is important. But it can be done. The size of the factory needed means most of the polysilicon it produces will need to be exported to regions like the US and Europe. We could begin to substitute polysilicon for exports of coal and gas.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar production line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building up our solar manufacturing capabilities will take many steps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/automated-production-line-modern-solar-silicon-47536699">06photo/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What are the benefits?</h2>
<p>The government will <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">spruik jobs</a> in the regions, especially where retiring coal plants such as Liddell in New South Wales will take jobs with them. </p>
<p>But there are other benefits. We could take better advantage of the talent and research knowhow in Australia to begin building next-generation cells. </p>
<p>If we can kickstart a viable solar industry, it would help us unlock other parts of the green economy. Cheap and plentiful solar power could make it viable to crack water to make green hydrogen or make green steel and aluminium. </p>
<p>Many of these initiatives have to be set in train now to gain the benefits in five or ten years’ time. Today’s announcement is just the start. But in a sun-drenched country, it makes sense to aim for the skies. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-just-laid-out-a-radical-new-vision-for-australia-in-the-region-clean-energy-exporter-and-green-manufacturer-186815">Albanese just laid out a radical new vision for Australia in the region: clean energy exporter and green manufacturer</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Hallam is a senior consultant for ITP renewables and was involved in the ARENA Silicon to Solar report.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiacre Rougieux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What would it mean to bring solar manufacturing back on shore in Australia?Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW SydneyFiacre Rougieux, Senior Lecturer, Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256742024-03-25T19:05:50Z2024-03-25T19:05:50ZIf you’ve got a dark roof, you’re spending almost $700 extra a year to keep your house cool<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584001/original/file-20240325-26-6somxa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C66%2C4025%2C2969&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Pfautsch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you visit southern Greece or Tunisia, you might notice lots of white rooftops and white buildings to reflect the intense heat and keep residents cooler. </p>
<p>It’s very different in Australia. New housing estates in the hottest areas around Sydney and Melbourne are dominated by dark rooftops, black roads and minimal tree cover. Dark colours trap and hold heat rather than reflect it. That might be useful in winters in Tasmania, but not where heat is an issue.</p>
<p>A dark roof means you’ll pay considerably more to keep your house cool in summer. Last year, the average household in New South Wales paid A$1827 in electricity. But those with a lighter-coloured cool roof <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/content/dam/pdfs/unsw-adobe-websites/arts-design-architecture/built-environment/our-research/high-performance-architecture-research-cluster/2022-08-22282-UNSW-Cool-Roofs-Project-Report-WEB.pdf">can pay</a> up to $694 less due to lower cooling electricity needs. Put another way, a dark roof in Sydney drives up your power bill by 38%. </p>
<p>When suburbs are full of dark coloured roofs, the whole area heats up. And up. And up. This is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">urban heat island effect</a>. In January 2020, Penrith in Western Sydney was the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-suburbs-that-hit-50c-last-summer-20201002-p561by.html">hottest place on Earth</a>. </p>
<p>Cool roofs have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112577">many benefits</a>. They slash how much heat gets into your house from the sun, keep the air surrounding your home cooler, boost your aircon efficiency, and make your solar panels work <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148123013939?via%3Dihub">more efficiently</a>.</p>
<p>State governments could, at a stroke, penalise dark roofs and give incentives for light-coloured roofs. Scaled up, it would help keep our cities cooler as the world heats up. But outside South Australia, it’s just not happening. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="infrared image of housing estate showing dark roofs becoming much hotter than light" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can clearly see here the difference roof colour makes. On the left, you can see the real view of a new housing estate. On the right, an infrared camera shows you the difference in heat (redder = hotter, green = cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Pfautsch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Why won’t state governments act?</h2>
<p>To date, our leaders show no interest in encouraging us to shift away from dark roofs. </p>
<p>In New South Wales, plans to ban dark roofs were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/plan-to-ban-dark-roofs-abandoned-as-nsw-government-walks-back-sustainability-measures">axed abruptly</a> in 2022 after pushback from developers. </p>
<p>The current NSW planning minister, Paul Scully, has <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/basix-pause-to-help-home-buyers-and-builders">now paused upgrades</a> to the state’s sustainability building standards which would have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/nonsense-call-leaves-millions-vulnerable-to-summers-silent-killer/news-story/d4f9221eb33157f8d6df4b6213e4c1e3">encouraged light-coloured roofs</a>. Other Australian states and territories have <a href="https://www.absa.net.au/notes/ncc-2022/">also paused</a> the rollout of new, more ambitious building sustainability standards. </p>
<p>This is short-sighted for several reasons: </p>
<ol>
<li>it costs the same for a light- or dark-coloured roof </li>
<li>owners will pay substantially higher electricity bills to keep their houses cool for decades</li>
<li>keeping the building status quo makes it harder to reach emission targets</li>
<li>dark roofs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.111948">cut how much power</a> you get from your rooftop solar, especially when it’s hot. This is doubly bad, as blackouts are most likely during the heat. </li>
</ol>
<p>At present, South Australia is the only state or territory acting on the issue. Early this year, housing minister Nick Champion announced dark roofs <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/northern-suburbs-housing-hotspots-cooler-future">will be banned</a> from a large new housing development in the north of Adelaide. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-australian-dream-new-homes-in-planned-estates-may-not-be-built-to-withstand-heatwaves-166266">The Great Australian Dream? New homes in planned estates may not be built to withstand heatwaves</a>
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<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>
<p>At present, the world’s cities <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/ghg-protocol-cities">account for 75%</a> of all energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. It’s vitally important we understand what makes cities <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets">hotter or cooler</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="chart showing city design and built infrastructure make cities hotter while trees and proximity to water make it cooler" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These are the main factors making cities hotter or cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-10/faq-10-2-figure-1">IPCC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Brick, concrete, tarmac and tiles can store more heat than grass and tree-covered earth can, and release it slowly over time. This keeps the air warmer, even overnight. </p>
<p>Built-up areas also block wind, which cuts cooling. Then there’s transport, manufacturing and air-conditioning, all of which increase heat. </p>
<p>Before aircon, the main way people had to keep cool was through how they designed their homes. In hot countries, buildings are often painted white, as well as having small windows and thick stone walls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="mykonos greece panorama, white rooftops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">White rooftops are common in hot regions, such as Mykonos in Greece.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mykonos-greece-panoramic-view-town-cyclades-1916571950">Izabela23/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The classic <a href="https://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/features/list/why-queensland-architecture-is-celebrated">Queenslander house</a> was lifted off the ground to catch breezes and had a deeply shaded veranda all around, to reduce heat. </p>
<p>But after aircon arrived, we <a href="https://archive.curbed.com/2017/5/9/15583550/air-conditioning-architecture-skyscraper-wright-lever-house">gradually abandoned</a> those simple cooling principles for our homes, like cross-ventilation or shade awnings. We just turned on air conditioning instead. </p>
<p>Except, of course, the heat doesn’t go away. Air conditioning works by exchanging heat, taking the heat out of air inside our house and putting it outside. </p>
<p>As climate change intensifies, it makes hot cities even hotter. Heatwaves are projected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004">be more frequent</a>, including in spring and autumn, while overnight temperatures will also increase. </p>
<p>As cities grow, suburbs can push into hotter areas. The 2.5 million residents of Western Sydney live at least 50km from the sea, which means cooling sea breezes don’t reach them. </p>
<p>Sweltering cities aren’t just uncomfortable. They are dangerous. Extreme heat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102671">kills more people</a> in Australia than all other natural disasters combined. </p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-sydney-will-swelter-through-46-days-per-year-over-35-c-by-2090-unless-emissions-drop-significantly-177056">Western Sydney will swelter through 46 days per year over 35°C by 2090, unless emissions drop significantly</a>
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<h2>How can we cool our cities?</h2>
<p>We don’t have to swelter. It’s a choice. Light roofs, light roads and better tree cover would make a real difference. </p>
<p>There’s a very practical reason Australians prize “leafy” suburbs. If your street has established large trees, you will experience less than half the number of days with extreme heat compared on residents <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/9/945">on treeless streets</a>. If you live in a leafy street, your home is also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200299X">worth more</a>.</p>
<p>Blacktop roads are a surprisingly large source of heat. In summer, they can <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-01-24/why-australia-builds-dark-roads-despite-heatwaves-climate-change/103375122">get up to 75°C</a>. Our research shows reflective sealants can cut the temperatures <a href="https://doi.org/10.26183/hstd-bj72">up to 13°C</a>. Some councils <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-01-24/why-australia-builds-dark-roads-despite-heatwaves-climate-change/103375122">have experimented</a> with lighter roads, but to date, uptake has been minimal. </p>
<p>Cool roofs markedly reduce how much energy you need to cool a house. When used at scale, <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/arts-design-architecture/our-schools/built-environment/our-research/clusters-groups/high-performance-architecture/projects/study-on-the-cool-roofs-mitigation-potential-in-australia">they lower</a> the air temperatures of entire suburbs. </p>
<p>The simplest way to get a cool roof is to choose one with as light a colour as possible. There are also high-tech options able to reflect <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778823003614">even more heat</a>.</p>
<p>Soon, we’ll see even higher performance options available in the form of daytime radiative coolers – <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1110">exceptional cooling materials</a> able to reflect still more heat away from your house and cut glare.</p>
<p>Until we choose to change, homeowners and whole communities will keep paying dearly for the luxury of a dark roof through power bill pain and sweltering suburbs.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">Why Western Sydney is feeling the heat from climate change more than the rest of the city</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riccardo Paolini has received funding from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Pfautsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We could make our hot cities cooler with white roofs and light roads. But progress has been glacially slow.Sebastian Pfautsch, Research Theme Fellow - Environment and Sustainability, Western Sydney UniversityRiccardo Paolini, Associate Professor, School of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260092024-03-21T19:07:53Z2024-03-21T19:07:53ZAlmost a third of Australia’s plant species may have to migrate south if we hit 3 degrees of warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582458/original/file-20240318-16-jmvgyn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cosattler.wordpress.com">Cornelia Sattler</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For ecologists, one of the most pressing questions is to understand how ecosystems will change or adapt as the climate changes rapidly. We are already seeing many species of plant and animal moving uphill and towards the poles in response to higher temperatures. It’s very likely most species will move to track their preferred temperature niche. </p>
<p>But what’s strange is that many species can survive in much broader temperature ranges than their current distribution suggests. We don’t yet fully understand why temperature affects ecosystems so strongly. </p>
<p>To shed light on this puzzle, our <a href="https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/oik.10556">new research</a> used the current range of Australian plants and calculated each species’ minimum and maximum temperature preferences. These data told us how many and what percentage of species are lost or gained when transitioning from, say, a 15°C to a 16°C average annual temperature.</p>
<p>The results were astonishing. In Australia’s wetter east coast, you gain on average 19% more species and lose 14% of species when moving up the temperature gradient by 1°C. In the dry centre, you gain 18% of species and lose 21% of species for every extra degree. </p>
<p>That’s at in our current climate. What will happen if the world warms by 3°C, which we are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">still heading towards</a>? </p>
<p>If we assume the whole flora is trying to track their current climate niche, we would likely see 30% of our plant species in Australia moving south. That would be an enormous shift. Almost one in every three species would change in the natural vegetation around us.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="australian alps, snow and gum trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plant species are more selective about their temperature niche than you would expect. Many will have to chase colder temperatures south.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.julianschrader.wordpress.com">Julian Schrader</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>What our data show is that even slight natural changes in temperature have an effect on the species occurring in different regions. </p>
<p>Why do most plant species only occur in a narrow band within the wider range in which they can survive? A long-held theory, dating back to the work of Charles Darwin, is that species ranges are determined more by competition as you head towards warmer temperatures.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-seas-get-warmer-tropical-species-are-moving-further-from-the-equator-218676">As seas get warmer, tropical species are moving further from the equator</a>
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<p>In this theory, some species are simply better at finding and using resources than others. These competitive traits are thought to be fine-tuned to work best at specific temperatures. These species outcompete those with lower growth rates or fitness <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.13864">at these temperatures</a>.</p>
<p>Why wouldn’t superior competitors spread everywhere? Their traits are likely only functional under specific, often narrow, temperature bands. As soon as it gets too cold, they can’t grow as efficiently and other species can compete.</p>
<p>This means the southern limit of an Australian species is determined by its tolerance of cooler temperatures. If you were on a road trip from Cape York to Tasmania, you would see new species appearing and tropical species becoming less common and disappearing as you drove south towards the pole. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cOyqieJWlQU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some species can adapt rapidly to changes in their climate, while others cannot.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When the heat is on, do plants have to move?</h2>
<p>Australia’s plant species – especially in the wetter east – tend to be very old. Species with long histories have likely found their ideal temperature niche. </p>
<p>But the climate is heating up rapidly. 2023 was the first full year Earth was 1.5°C hotter <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">than the pre-industrial era</a>. </p>
<p>As temperatures rise, staying put may no longer be possible. More and more species will find themselves <a href="https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(13)00105-5">out of their preferred temperature niche</a>. They either adapt, move or go locally extinct. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="colourful leaves of nothofagus gunnii" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cold-loving deciduous beech (<em>Nothofagus gunnii</em>) is part of the ancient Antarctic beech family of trees and one of Australia’s only deciduous trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/autumn-leaf-colors-nothofagus-gunnii-fagus-2029915706">Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01286">evidence</a> so far suggests species will move – if they can. </p>
<p>When species do move, the ecosystems they leave behind and the new ones they move into will change.</p>
<p>We don’t know if all species will be able to move freely down the east coast. Our industrious efforts to make farms, homes, roads and cities have heavily fragmented the natural vegetation. We have converted once-continuous spans of habitats into island-like remnants. </p>
<p>Some species can disperse better and over longer distances between habitat fragments than others. For instance, species with winged or windborne seeds are better dispersers than species with large seeds, which include many of our rainforest species. </p>
<p>The more dispersive species may win the race to secure new climate niches. To avoid some species becoming overly dominant, should we help plant species that don’t spread their seeds well by transplanting seedlings or sowing their seeds? This is an important question for the future to which we don’t yet have an answer. </p>
<p>Our plant species have found their climate niches over millions of years. What our research suggests is that climate change may force a surprising amount of our plants to move.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-will-the-tropics-eventually-become-uninhabitable-145174">Climate explained: will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Schrader does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our plant species are pickier about their preferred temperature range than you would expect. That means many will have to move south, seeking cooler climes.Julian Schrader, Lecturer in Plant Ecology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251652024-03-20T05:06:52Z2024-03-20T05:06:52ZA battery price war is kicking off that could soon make electric cars cheaper. Here’s how<p>The main cost of an electric vehicle (EV) is its battery. The high cost of energy-dense batteries has meant EVs have long been more expensive than their fossil fuel equivalents.</p>
<p>But this could change faster than we thought. The world’s largest maker of batteries for electric cars, China’s CATL, claims it will slash the cost of its batteries by up to 50% this year, as a <a href="https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/">price war kicks off</a> with the second largest maker in China, BYD subsidiary FinDreams. </p>
<p>What’s behind this? After the electric vehicle industry experienced a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries">huge surge</a> in 2022, it has hit headwinds. It <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/">ramped up faster</a> than demand, triggering efforts to cut costs. </p>
<p>But the promised price cuts are also a sign of progress. Researchers have made great strides in finding <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries">new battery chemistries</a>. CATL and BYD now make EV batteries without any cobalt, an expensive, scarce metal linked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-miners-die-a-lot-appalling-conditions-and-poverty-wages-the-lives-of-cobalt-miners-in-the-drc-220986">child labor and dangerous mining practices</a> in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. </p>
<p>Economies of scale and new supplies of lithium make it possible to sell batteries more cheaply. And the world’s largest carmaker, Toyota, is pinning its hopes on solid-state batteries in the hope these energy-dense, all but fireproof batteries will make possible EVs with a range of more than 1,200km per charge .</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1761884090913992724"}"></div></p>
<h2>How are battery makers cutting costs?</h2>
<p>The largest market for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is China. But demand for EVs here has eased off, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2a9f1dae-ddc4-4214-900d-c763208e9a45">dropping from</a> a 96% surge in demand in 2022 to a 36% rise in 2023. </p>
<p>As a result, battery giant CATL has seen its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-catl-posts-first-profit-fall-since-q2-2022-2024-03-15/#:%7E:text=CATL's%20profit%20for%20the%20October,the%20whole%20of%20last%20year.">profits fall</a> for the first time in almost two years. </p>
<p>One of the best ways to create more demand is to make your products cheaper. That’s what’s behind the cost-cutting promises from CATL and BYD. </p>
<p>You might wonder how that’s possible. One of the key challenges in shifting to battery-electric cars is where to get the raw materials. The electric future rests on viable supply chains for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, copper, cobalt and rare earth elements. </p>
<p>Until recently, the main EV battery chemistry has been built on four of these, lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt. These are also known as NMC batteries. </p>
<p>If you can avoid or minimise the use of expensive or controversial minerals, you can cut costs. That’s why Chinese companies such as CATL have all but monopolised the market on another chemistry, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. These batteries are cheaper, as they have no cobalt. They have other benefits too: a longer usable life and less risk of fire than traditional lithium battery chemistries. The downside is they have lower capacity and voltage. </p>
<p>The recent price cuts come from a deliberate decision to use abundant earth materials such as iron and phosphorus wherever possible. </p>
<p>What about lithium? Prices of lithium carbonate, the salt form of the ultra light silvery-white metal, shot up sixfold between <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-price-slide-deepens-china-battery-giant-bets-cheaper-inputs-2023-02-28">2020 and 2022</a> in China before falling last year. </p>
<p>Despite this, battery prices have <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-prices/">kept falling</a> – just not by as much as they otherwise would have. </p>
<p>The world’s huge demand for lithium has led to strong growth in supply, as miners scramble to find new sources. CATL, for instance, is spending A$2.1 billion on lithium extraction plants <a href="https://batteryjuniors.com/2023/06/19/catl-investment-bolivian-lithium">in Bolivia</a>. </p>
<p>Growth in lithium supply <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-price-slide-deepens-china-battery-giant-bets-cheaper-inputs-2023-02-28/">is projected</a> to outpace demand by 34% both this year and next, which should help stabilise battery prices. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="bolivia salt flats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bolivia’s salt flats are a rich source of lithium, though its extraction has come with environmental concerns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worlds-largest-salt-flat-salar-de-317843843">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Battery options are multiplying</h2>
<p>China’s battery makers have cornered the market in lithium iron phosphate batteries. But they aren’t the only game in town. </p>
<p>Tesla electric cars have long been powered by batteries from Japan’s Panasonic and South Korea LG. These batteries are built on the older but well established NMC and lithium nickel cobalt aluminate oxide (NCA) chemistries. Even so, the American carmaker is <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/587455/batteries-tesla-using-electric-cars/">now using</a> CATL’s LFP batteries in its more affordable cars. </p>
<p>The world’s largest carmaker, Toyota, has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/01/toyota-chief-executive-faces-electric-vehicle-reality/">long been sceptical</a> of lithium-ion batteries and has focused on hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles instead. </p>
<p>But this is changing. Toyota is now focused heavily on making <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/04/solid-state-batteries-inside-the-race-to-transform-the-science-of-electric-vehicles">solid-state batteries</a> a reality. These do away with liquid electrolytes to transport electricity in favour of a solid battery. In September last year, the company <a href="https://electrek.co/2023/06/13/toyota-claims-solid-state-ev-battery-tech-breakthrough/">announced a breakthrough</a> which it claims will enable faster recharging times and a range of 1,200km before recharge. If these claims are true, these batteries would effectively double the range of today’s topline EVs. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/petrol-pricing-and-parking-why-so-many-outer-suburban-residents-are-opting-for-evs-225565">Petrol, pricing and parking: why so many outer suburban residents are opting for EVs</a>
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<p>In response, China’s battery manufacturers and government are <a href="https://kr-asia.com/catl-byd-others-unite-in-china-for-solid-state-battery-breakthrough">working to catch up</a> with Toyota on solid-state batteries. </p>
<p>Which battery chemistry will win out? It’s too early to say for electric vehicles. But as the green transition continues, it’s likely we’ll need not just one but many options. </p>
<p>After all, the energy needs of a prime mover truck will be different to city runabout EVs. And as electric aircraft go from dream to reality, these will need different batteries again. To get battery-electric aircraft off the ground, you need batteries with a huge power density. </p>
<p>The good news? These are engineering challenges which can be overcome. Just last year, CATL announced a pioneering <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/21/catl-launches-500-wh-kg-condensed-matter-battery/">“condensed matter” battery</a> for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-05-03/catl-announces-battery-to-make-electric-aviation-possible/102289310">electric aircraft</a>, with up to three times the energy density of an average electric car battery. </p>
<p>All the while, researchers are pushing the envelope even further. A good electric car might have a battery with an energy density of 150–250 watt-hours per kilogram. But the <a href="https://newatlas.com/energy/highest-density-lithium-battery/#:%7E:text=The%20battery%20tested%20at%20711.3,off%20any%20form%20of%20commercialization.">record in the lab</a> is now over 700 watt-hours/kg. </p>
<p>This is to say nothing of the research going into still other battery chemistries, from <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/04/1066141/whats-next-for-batteries/">sodium-ion to iron-air</a> to <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/liquid-metal-battery">liquid metal</a> batteries. </p>
<p>We are, in short, still at the beginning of the battery revolution. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-sodium-ion-batteries-could-make-electric-cars-cheaper-207342">How sodium-ion batteries could make electric cars cheaper</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s two largest EV battery makers are pledging to slash the cost of their batteries this year. Behind the pledge is a cost war – and new battery chemistries.Muhammad Rizwan Azhar, Lecturer, Edith Cowan UniversityWaqas Uzair, Research associate, Edith Cowan UniversityYasir Arafat, Senior research associate, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222242024-03-19T10:45:17Z2024-03-19T10:45:17ZNigeria’s fuel subsidy removal was too sudden: why a gradual approach would have been better<p>Nigeria <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/06/08/nigerias-new-president-scraps-the-fuel-subsidy">removed</a> fuel subsidies entirely in May 2023. This came as a surprise because of the political risks associated with subsidy removal. Previous administrations were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/16/nigeria-restores-fuel-subsidy-protests">reluctant</a> to jettison the subsidies.</p>
<p>The subsidies had been in place since the <a href="https://www.ictd.ac/publication/fuel-subsidy-social-contract-microeconomic-analysis-nigeria-rib/#:%7E:text=Subsidies%20exist%20because%20the%20government,oil%20price%20shock%20in%201973">1970s</a>, when the government sold petrol to Nigerians at a price below cost – though most consumers weren’t aware of this. </p>
<p>The 1977 <a href="https://gazettes.africa/archive/ng/1977/ng-government-gazette-supplement-dated-1977-01-13-no-2-part-a.pdf">Price Control Act</a> made it illegal for some products (including petrol) to be sold above the regulated price. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Olusegun-Obasanjo">Olusegun Obasanjo</a> regime introduced this law to cushion the effects of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/29/1001023637/think-inflation-is-bad-now-lets-take-a-step-back-to-the-1970s">inflation</a>, caused by a worldwide increase in energy prices.</p>
<p>Fuel subsidies have been controversial in Nigeria, and some analysts see them as inequitable. Very few Nigerians own vehicles. Nigeria is among the countries with the <a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/903/#:%7E:text=Estimated%20vehicle%20population%20in%20Nigeria,population%20ratio%20is%20put%200.06.">least number of vehicles</a> per capita, with <a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/903/#:%7E:text=Estimated%20vehicle%20population%20in%20Nigeria,population%20ratio%20is%20put%200.06.">0.06 vehicles</a> per person or 50 vehicles per 1,000 Nigerians.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-fuel-subsidy-is-gone-its-time-to-spend-the-money-in-ways-that-benefit-the-poor-204701">Nigeria’s fuel subsidy is gone. It's time to spend the money in ways that benefit the poor</a>
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<p>So critics have <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-fuel-subsidy-is-gone-its-time-to-spend-the-money-in-ways-that-benefit-the-poor-204701">argued</a> that the subsidies benefited mainly the elites even though they could afford to buy fuel at market prices. </p>
<p>The subsidies were also considered to be a drain on public finances, costing the government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-nnpc-spent-10-billion-fuel-subsidy-2022-2023-01-20/">US$10 billion</a> in 2022. About <a href="https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigerias-expenditure-on-fuel-subsidy-in-17-years-adequate-to-build-three-450000bpd-refineries-neiti/">40%</a> of Nigeria’s revenue in 2022 was spent on fuel subsidies.</p>
<p>Fuel subsidies in Nigeria were notorious for their opacity and graft. <a href="https://punchng.com/probe-missing-2-1bn-n3-1tn-subsidy-payments-or-face-lawsuit-serap-tells-tinubu/">Billions of dollars</a> were said to have been lost through corrupt practices in the payment of the subsidies. </p>
<p>These are some of the reasons they were removed. </p>
<p>But now questions are being asked about the way it was done. In a public opinion poll conducted last year, <a href="https://www.noi-polls.com/post/fuel-subsidy-removal-7-in10-nigerians-lament-over-the-negative-impact">73%</a> of Nigerians said they were dissatisfied with the manner in which the fuel subsidy was removed. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-onyeiwu-170137">an economist</a> who has studied the Nigerian economy for over four decades, I can see why the fuel subsidy had to go. </p>
<p>As I argued in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/fuel-subsidies-in-nigeria-theyre-bad-for-the-economy-but-the-lifeblood-of-politicians-170966">previous article</a>, fuel subsidies were bad for the Nigerian economy. They worsened budget deficits and the country’s debt profile, encouraged corruption, and diverted resources away from critical sectors of the economy. They were also inequitable, transferring the national wealth to elites. </p>
<p>But, as has become clear from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-in-nigeria-is-still-climbing-while-it-has-slowed-globally-heres-why-222226">unprecedented inflation</a> in the country partly caused by the removal of fuel subsidies, the abrupt removal of the subsidy was not the best strategy to use. </p>
<p>I believe this action should have been staggered over several months. This would have provided a soft landing, and gradually exposed Nigerians to the full market price of fuel. Doing so in one fell swoop amounts to shock therapy that is very traumatic for an already beleaguered and impoverished citizenry.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fuel-subsidies-in-nigeria-theyre-bad-for-the-economy-but-the-lifeblood-of-politicians-170966">Fuel subsidies in Nigeria: they're bad for the economy, but the lifeblood of politicians</a>
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<h2>Why removing the subsidy should have been gradual</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/bola-ahmed-tinubu-the-kingmaker-is-now-nigerias-president-200383">Bola Tinubu</a> administration could have chosen from various mechanisms to minimise the negative impact of subsidy removal. </p>
<p>As proposed by the <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099061623093529051/pdf/P1779950377213012089e701681a43e5558.pdf">World Bank</a>, a temporary price cap would have ensured that fuel price increases did not inflict too much pain on consumers. This approach would also have enabled the government to significantly reduce, but not eliminate, the fiscal burden of the subsidy. </p>
<p>Another approach is periodic price adjustments: setting the price based on a moving average of previous months’ import costs. These adjustments could have been made together with a price cap. The <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099061623093529051/pdf/P1779950377213012089e701681a43e5558.pdf">Philippines</a> is one country that successfully removed fuel subsidies in the 1990s, using the price adjustment mechanism.</p>
<p>Gradually phasing out subsidies would have been a better approach for a number of reasons. </p>
<p>Firstly, Nigerians had become suspicious of government’s intentions, given their economic experiences with the previous administration of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Muhammadu-Buhari">Muhammadu Buhari</a>. Those <a href="https://newtelegraphng.com/agony-over-buharis-bad-economic-legacy/">experiences</a> include high <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/inflation-cpi">inflation</a> and <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/unemployment-rate">unemployment rates</a>, rising poverty and insecurity. </p>
<p>Tinubu should have re-established government credibility and good intentions first. He could have offered economic succour such as cash transfers and food subsidies for poor Nigerians, wage increases for workers and retirees, scholarships or tuition waivers for indigent students in tertiary institutions, free lunches for primary and secondary students in public schools, and subsidised public transport. </p>
<p>After demonstrating he meant well, he should have gradually rolled out the subsidy removal. Nigerians would have been psychologically prepared for what was coming, including inflation. </p>
<p>The inflationary impact of subsidy removal would have been less severe. Nigerians would have been more tolerant of difficult economic policies. People will accept difficult economic policies if they know their government is humane and pro-people. </p>
<p>Secondly, an incremental approach would have enabled the government to come up with programmes targeted at those most likely to be hurt by subsidy removal. This would have ensured buy-in. The “<a href="https://guardian.ng/politics/tinubus-subsidy-removal-and-palliative-dilemma/">palliatives</a>” introduced by the Tinubu administration and state governments are temporary and have a <a href="https://punchng.com/palliatives-knocks-trail-distribution-beneficiaries-decry-inadequate-foodstuffs-delay/">limited reach</a>. </p>
<p>Gradual subsidy removal would have enabled the government to engage with groups that would be affected by the policy. Groups representing labour, manufacturers, students, women and others could have provided insights into what would be needed to help their members adjust. </p>
<p>This interactive approach would have promoted transparency and credibility in the conduct of government policies.</p>
<p>Many vulnerable Nigerians were already under severe economic pressure. Apart from <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/unemployment-rate">high unemployment</a> and <a href="https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1092#:%7E:text=In%20Nigeria%2040.1%20percent%20of,considered%20poor%20by%20national%20standards.">poverty rates</a>, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/inflation-cpi">inflation</a> was biting very hard. </p>
<p>The abrupt removal of fuel subsidies, without first putting in place shock-absorbing measures, will make it more difficult for the government to achieve the policy’s long-term aims: fiscal sustainability; higher levels of investment in productive sectors of the economy; economic growth; and investment in renewable energy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-transport-grant-isnt-the-best-way-to-allocate-fuel-subsidy-savings-heres-what-is-172982">Nigeria's transport grant isn't the best way to allocate fuel subsidy savings: here's what is</a>
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<h2>Minimising the negative impact of subsidy removal</h2>
<p>Tinubu should minimise the negative impact of subsidy removal and <a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/reserves/foreign-exchange/7959058/nigeria-liberalises-exchange-rate">liberalisation</a> of the foreign exchange market. These two phenomena interact to cause the <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-in-nigeria-is-still-climbing-while-it-has-slowed-globally-heres-why-222226">inflation</a> that the country is facing. </p>
<p>First, savings from ending the subsidy should be used to develop productive capacities in agriculture, labour-intensive manufacturing and services. </p>
<p>Manufacturing activities like agro-processing, textiles, footwear, leather products, arts and crafts should be targeted for development. This would generate high-paying jobs that might help Nigerians to cushion the effects of inflation. </p>
<p>In an economy that’s functioning well, wages always adjust to reflect price increases. In Nigeria, however, too many people are either unemployed or in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352695633_EMPLOYMENT_IN_THE_INFORMAL_SECTOR_IN_NIGERIA_IMPLICATIONS_FOR_SUSTAINABLE_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT">informal sector</a>, with limited opportunities to adjust their earnings to reflect inflation. </p>
<p>Funds saved from subsidy removal should be invested in public infrastructure (mass transportation, road construction, electricity generation, water supply). </p>
<p>Funds should also be used to develop people’s capabilities through massive investment in health and education. Part of the savings should be used to support and sustain the <a href="https://www.nuc.edu.ng/president-tinubu-signs-student-loan-bill/">student loan programme</a> announced by the Tinubu administration. </p>
<p>Successful radical economic reforms, such as the ones implemented in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/6796/chapter/150948559">Rwanda</a>, usually give people an incentive to be more productive, creative and innovative. But policies that are punitive, with marginal or no benefits, are unlikely to succeed.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether Tinubu’s economic policies will spur sustained and inclusive economic growth, as well as alleviate poverty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Onyeiwu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria’s sudden and total removal of fuel subsidies was not the best strategy to use.Stephen Onyeiwu, Professor of Economics & Business, Allegheny CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260202024-03-19T06:21:50Z2024-03-19T06:21:50ZFinally, good news for power bills: energy regulator promises small savings for most customers on the ‘default market offer’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582732/original/file-20240319-16-nu9kfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C8%2C5540%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/queensland-australia-common-public-substations-1062133949">chinasong, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">price increases</a>, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re going down. </p>
<p>The good news is contained in two separate draft decisions today by the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news/articles/news-releases/default-market-offer-dmo-2024-25-draft-determination">Australian Energy Regulator</a> and Victoria’s <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer/victorian-default-offer-price-review-2024-25">Essential Services Commission</a>, on the maximum price energy retailers can charge electricity consumers under a specific plan that must be offered to all consumers.</p>
<p>The price is officially known as the “<a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/programs/price-safety-net">default market offer</a>”. It’s the price you’re charged on a “default” plan with an electricity retailer – in other words, the plan customers are on if they haven’t shopped around to find a better deal from competing retailers. The bottom line is, most of these residential electricity customers should receive price reductions of between 0.4% (A$13) and 7.1% ($211) next financial year. In most cases that’s less than the rate of inflation. </p>
<p>The relief is largely the result of a drop in <a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">wholesale prices</a> – that’s the price paid to the generators producing electricity. Unfortunately, however, at the same time transmission and distribution prices – or network costs – have gone up. So the savings won’t be as great as they might have been. </p>
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<h2>A big improvement on previous years</h2>
<p>This is the sixth year in which regulators have set default market offers for retail electricity customers. They do it where there is competition in the sector: so in southeast Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and, separately, Victoria. </p>
<p>It does not include Tasmania, the ACT, Western Australia or the Northern Territory, where the relevant regulator sets the prices and there’s no or very little competition.</p>
<p>About 5-10% of consumers across the states involved are on default plans. The rest have a contract arrangement with a retailer. But the draft decision, if enacted, still directly affects hundreds of thousands of people. And as commentators <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/aer-flags-price-cuts-for-some-rises-for-others/103602946">have observed</a>, it sends an important market signal about the general direction of electricity prices.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator says most residential customers on the default market offer can expect to save on their electricity bills in 2024-25. But the offers vary depending where you live. </p>
<p>Have a look at the table above to see what residential customers without “controlled load” can expect. That covers most households. (Controlled load is when you also have an off-peak tariff for hot water heating.)</p>
<p>Some customers will be paying more for electricity. In Southeast Queensland, residential customers will pay 2.7% more, which is an extra $53 on average. </p>
<p>Using an inflation forecast of 3.3%, the Australian Energy Regulator also calculates what they call the “real” year-to-year variation in prices. So even if there’s a small increase in the price for a particular area, it’s less than the rate of inflation. For that example in southeast Queensland, it equates to a decrease of 0.6% and a saving of $12 in real terms. </p>
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<p>Residential customers on the <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer">Victorian default market offer</a> can expect to save 6.4%. The retail power prices in Victoria are <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bill-relief-could-be-coming-as-wholesale-electricity-prices-fall-20240130-p5f14e">slightly better than in the other states</a> largely because there are lower wholesale power prices.</p>
<p>All in all it’s a big improvement on the price hikes of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">last year</a> and the year before that. </p>
<p>The final default market offer prices will be released in May, but we can expect little change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>Network prices are up</h2>
<p>Regulators set the default market offer by itemising all costs retailers are likely to incur in the course of running their business. From that, they calculate the fair price retailers should offer customers on default plans. </p>
<p>Wholesale electricity costs, incurred when retailers buy electricity from generators on the wholesale market, make up <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/key-issues/energy-costs/">maybe 30–40% of your bill</a>. </p>
<p>The other major cost retailers face is for the electricity transmission and distribution network – that is, the “poles and wires”. These also comprise around 40% of your bill.</p>
<p>The network price is driven by inflation and interest rate rises, and also includes the costs of maintenance, and building new transmission infrastructure to connect renewable energy generators to the grid.</p>
<p>The easing of wholesale prices since their 2022 peak has been offset by increases in these network prices. In fact, network prices have increased by almost as much as wholesale prices have come down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>A difficult ask</h2>
<p>Responding to the draft decision on Tuesday, Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/albanese-government-energy-plan-stabilising-energy-prices-after-global-crisis">said</a> it showed the Albanese government was stabilising energy prices.</p>
<p>But Bowen came to office promising to <a href="https://www.chrisbowen.net/media/media-releases-and-op-eds/powering-australia-labor-s-plan-to-create-jobs-cut-power-bills-and-reduce-emissions-by-boosting-renewable-energy/">cut power bills by $275 by 2025</a>. That deadline is not very far away.</p>
<p>Bowen made that commitment in December 2021. Very soon after, <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why-182849">electricity prices</a> shot through the roof. It’s becoming very difficult to see how the $275 cost reduction will be achieved by next year. </p>
<p>The bottom line is prices have stabilised after a couple of bad years and hopefully the worst is behind us. But, it would be a brave person who attempts to predict where they go from here. There are too many moving parts. Governments should stay the course on policies, and consumers, worried about electricity prices, should go online, compare offers, and to find the best possible deal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>In states with competition between retailers, the energy regulator is promising savings for most customers on the default plan. But it’s small change compared to price hikes. Here’s what to expect.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172732024-03-18T02:28:19Z2024-03-18T02:28:19ZEven as the fusion era dawns, we’re still in the Steam Age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582432/original/file-20240318-30-py4kah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C36%2C5925%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/steam-turbine-rotor-1008297052">SmartS/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Steam locomotives clattering along railway tracks. Paddle steamers churning down the Murray. Dreadnought battleships powered by steam engines. </p>
<p>Many of us think the age of steam has ended. But while the steam engine has been superseded by internal combustion engines and now electric motors, the modern world still relies on steam. Almost all thermal power plants, from coal to nuclear, must have steam to function. (Gas plants usually do not).</p>
<p>But why? It’s because of something we discovered millennia ago. In the first century CE, the ancient Greeks invented the aeolipile – a steam turbine. Heat turned water into steam, and steam has a very useful property: it’s an easy-to-make gas that can push. </p>
<p>This simple fact means that even as the dream of fusion power <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a46973142/nuclear-fusion/">creeps closer</a>, we will still be in the Steam Age. The first commercial fusion plant will rely on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/magnetic-fusion-confinement-with-tokamaks-and-stellarators#:%7E:text=While%20tokamaks%20are%20better%20at,a%20prospective%20fusion%20energy%20plant">cutting-edge technology</a> able to contain plasma far hotter than the sun’s core – but it will still be wedded to a humble steam turbine converting heat to movement to electricity.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="inside a fusion torus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Even high-tech fusion plants will use steam to produce electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JET_vessel_internal_view.jpg">EUROfusion/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are we still reliant on steam?</h2>
<p>Boiling water takes a significant amount of energy, the highest by far of the common liquids we’re familiar with. Water takes about 2.5 times more energy to evaporate than ethanol does, and 60% more than ammonia liquids. </p>
<p>Why do we use steam rather than other gases? Water is cheap, nontoxic and easy to transform from liquid to energetic gas before condensing back to liquid for use again and again.</p>
<p>Steam has lasted this long because we have an abundance of water, covering 71% of Earth’s surface, and water is a useful way to convert thermal energy (heat) to mechanical energy (movement) to electrical energy (electricity). We seek electricity because it can be easily transmitted and can be used to do work for us in many areas. </p>
<p>When water is turned to steam inside a closed container, it expands hugely and increases the pressure. High pressure steam can store huge amounts of heat, as can any gas. If given an outlet, the steam will surge through it with high flow rates. Put a turbine in its exit path and the force of the escaping steam will spin the turbine’s blades. Electromagnets convert this mechanical movement to electricity. The steam condenses back to water and the process starts again. </p>
<p>Steam engines used coal to heat water to create steam to drive the engine. Nuclear fission splits atoms to make heat to boil water. Nuclear fusion will force heavy isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) to fuse into helium-3 atoms and create even more heat – to boil water to make steam to drive turbines to make electricity. </p>
<p>If you looked only at the end process in most thermal power plants – coal, diesel, nuclear fission or even nuclear fusion – you would see the old technology of steam taken as far as it can be taken. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-decades-of-research-are-still-needed-before-fusion-can-be-used-as-clean-energy-196758">Nuclear fusion breakthrough: Decades of research are still needed before fusion can be used as clean energy</a>
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<p>The steam turbines driving the large electrical alternators which produce 60% of the world’s electricity are things of beauty. Hundreds of years of metallurgical technology, design and intricate manufacturing has all but perfected the steam turbine.</p>
<p>Will we keep using steam? New technologies produce electricity without using steam at all. Solar panels rely on incoming photons hitting electrons in silicon and creating a charge, while wind turbines operate like steam turbines except with wind blowing the turbine, not steam. Some forms of energy storage, such as pumped hydro, use turbines but for liquid water, not steam, while batteries use no steam at all. </p>
<p>These technologies are rapidly becoming important sources of energy and storage. But steam isn’t going away. If we use thermal power plants, we’ll likely still be using steam. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="steam turbine in power plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thermal power plants rely on giant steam turbines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-installations-power-turbines-49207051">rtem/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why can’t we just convert heat to electricity?</h2>
<p>You might wonder why we need so many steps. Why can’t we convert heat directly to electricity? </p>
<p>It is possible. Thermo-electric devices are already in use in satellites and space probes. </p>
<p>Built from special alloys such as lead-tellurium, these devices rely on a temperature gap between hot and cold junctions between these materials. The greater the temperature difference, the greater voltage they can generate. </p>
<p>The reason these devices aren’t everywhere is they only produce direct current (DC) at low voltages and are between 16–22% efficient at converting heat to electricity. By contrast, state of the art thermal power plants are up to 46% efficient. </p>
<p>If we wanted to run a society on these heat-conversion engines, we’d need large arrays of these devices to produce high enough DC current and then use inverters and transformers to convert it to the alternating current we’re used to. So while you might avoid steam, you end up having to add new conversions to make the electricity useful.</p>
<p>There are other ways to turn heat into electricity. High temperature solid-oxide fuel cells have been under development <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/solid-oxide-fuel-cells">for decades</a>. These run hot, at between 500–1,000°C, and can burn hydrogen or methanol (without an actual flame) to produce DC electricity. </p>
<p>These fuel cells are up to 60% efficient and potentially even higher. While promising, these fuel cells are not yet ready for prime time. They have expensive catalysts and short lifespans due to the intense heat. But progress is <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/07/20230713-bosch.html">being made</a>. </p>
<p>Until technologies like these mature, we’re stuck with steam as a way to convert heat to electricity. That’s not so bad – steam works. </p>
<p>When you see a steam locomotive rattle past, you might think it’s a quaint technology of the past. But our civilisation still relies very heavily on steam. If fusion power arrives, steam will help power the future too. The Steam Age never really ended. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-power-the-future-elon-musks-battery-packs-or-twiggy-forrests-green-hydrogen-truth-is-well-need-both-191333">What will power the future: Elon Musk's battery packs or Twiggy Forrest's green hydrogen? Truth is, we'll need both</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Helwig receives funding from Federal Government Department of Education SURF and RRC research grants. </span></em></p>In the 19th century, the world ran on steam. In the 21st century, little has changed. Every thermal power plant still relies on steam as a final stage.Andreas Helwig, Associate Professor, Electro-Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208242024-03-08T14:35:38Z2024-03-08T14:35:38ZApril’s eclipse will mean interruptions in solar power generation, which could strain electrical grids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573902/original/file-20240206-16-om8k0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels in Brazil. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/7551d26521224cbf94340e255374a7a7?ext=true">AP Photo/Bruna Prado</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the most recent total solar eclipse visible in the U.S., on Aug. 21, 2017, the skies darkened as the Moon crossed in front of the Sun. It blocked out all sunlight – except for that from a golden ring visible around the Moon’s shape, called the corona. Not surprisingly, solar power generation across North America plummeted for several hours, from the first moment the Moon began to obscure the Sun to when the Sun’s disk was clear again. </p>
<p>On April 8, 2024, another <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-sun-goes-dark-5-questions-answered-about-the-solar-eclipse-81308">total solar eclipse</a> will track across the U.S., causing perhaps an even greater loss of solar power generation. Although this will be the second total solar eclipse visible in the U.S. in under seven years, these events are a rare occurrence. Nevertheless, they present a unique challenge to power grid operators.</p>
<p><a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/vahe-peroomian/">I am a space scientist</a> with a passion for teaching physics and astronomy. Though I have seen many partial eclipses of the Sun, I have yet to witness a total solar eclipse. My road trip to Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah in October 2023 to see the “ring of fire” <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-solar-eclipse-33019">annular solar eclipse</a> was unforgettable, and April 8 will surely find me handing out <a href="https://theconversation.com/turn-around-bright-eyes-heres-how-to-see-the-eclipse-and-protect-your-vision-203571">eclipse glasses</a> once again.</p>
<h2>When the Moon’s shadow blocks the Sun</h2>
<p>During <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-solar-eclipse-33019">a solar eclipse</a>, the Moon partially or completely blocks the view of the Sun. Since the Moon is nearly 400 times smaller than the Sun and nearly <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/17109/the-sun-and-the-moon/">400 times closer</a>, the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/02/08/the-strangest-eclipse-fact-of-all-the-moons-shadow-isnt-a-circle/?sh=be76f8c17bd3">Moon’s shadow</a>, visible from Earth, tapers to a width of <a href="https://cmase.uark.edu/_resources/pdf/nasa/NASAConnect/pathoftotality.pdf">70 to 100 miles</a> (112 to 161 kilometers).</p>
<p>Within this region, called the path of totality, observers see a total solar eclipse. Observers close to but outside this path witness a partial eclipse of the Sun, where the Moon covers a fraction of the Sun’s disk. </p>
<p>During the April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse, the <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/where-when/">path of totality</a> in the continental U.S. will extend from Texas in the south to Maine in the northeast. Elsewhere in the U.S., Miami will see a partial eclipse in which a maximum of 46% of the Sun’s disk is obscured. In Seattle, far from the path of totality, the Moon will cover only a maximum of <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2024-april-8">20% of the Sun</a>. In southern Texas, where the path of totality first crosses into the U.S., the eclipse will last just under three hours, with totality a mere 4 minutes and 27 seconds. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sOpYoO_SK7o?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The path of the 2024 solar eclipse.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Increasing reliance on solar power</h2>
<p>The worldwide trend toward renewable energy has seen a significant increase in solar, or photovoltaic, power generation in the last decade. Solar power generation capacity is set to <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/renewable-energy-progress-tracker">double worldwide</a> between 2022 and 2028, and the U.S. now has the capacity to generate <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">three times more solar energy</a> than at the time of the 2017 total solar eclipse.</p>
<p>The most obvious obstacle to solar power generation is cloud cover. On a cloudy day, the energy produced by solar panels drops to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/solar/solar-panels-cloudy-days-night/">10% to 25%</a> of its output on a sunny day. </p>
<p>The North American power transmission grid is divided into <a href="https://www.nerc.com/AboutNERC/keyplayers/Pages/default.aspx">six major regions</a> and <a href="https://alternativeenergy.procon.org/questions/what-is-the-electricity-grid/">more than 150</a> local and regional subgrids. Electrical system operators in each local grid continuously balance the amount of electricity production with the “load,” or the demand for electricity by consumers. </p>
<p>System operators can tap into energy from <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/power.htm">various power generation mechanisms</a> like solar, wind, hydroelectric, natural gas and coal. Local grids can also import and export electricity to and from their grid as needed.</p>
<p>System operators have accurate models for the amount of solar power generated across the U.S. on a daily basis, and these models account for the parts of the continental U.S. that may have cloudy skies. By pairing solar power generation with battery storage, they can access electricity from solar even when the Sun isn’t shining – on cloudy days or at night. </p>
<p>To plan for an eclipse, electrical system operators need to figure out how much the energy production will drop and how much power people will draw from the reserves. On the day of the 2017 total solar eclipse, for example, solar power generation in the U.S. <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">dropped 25%</a> below average. </p>
<p>Because solar power production falls quickly during the eclipse’s peak, grid operators may need to tap into reserves at a rate that may strain the <a href="https://www.osha.gov/etools/electric-power/illustrated-glossary/transmission-lines">electrical transmission lines</a>. To try to keep things running smoothly, grid operators will rely on local reserves and minimize power transfer <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">between grids</a> during the event. This should lessen the burden on transmission lines in local grids and prevent temporary blackouts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Electrical towers and power lines shown against a sunset." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573903/original/file-20240206-28-khlo8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar eclipses can stress the power grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenInfrastructure/9a4ee5858ac74db78eb7d96b1961c275/photo?Query=power%20grid&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=226&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=17&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Renewable energy during eclipses</h2>
<p>Solar isn’t the only type of renewable energy generation that goes down during an eclipse. Since it’s not as sunny, temperatures along the path of the eclipse fall by as much as <a href="https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/temperature-change-during-totality">10 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (5.5 degrees Celsius). Lower temperatures lead to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx135">slower wind speeds</a> and less wind power generation. </p>
<p>During the August 2017 eclipse, the loss of renewable power generation added up to nearly <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">6 gigawatts</a>. That’s equivalent to the energy usage of <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-much-power-1-gigawatt">600 million LED lightbulbs</a> or <a href="https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/gigawatt-the-solar-energy-term-you-should-know-about/">4.5 million homes</a>. </p>
<p>Grid operators compensated by planning ahead and increasing power generation at <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71147.pdf">natural gas and coal-powered plants</a>, which don’t depend on sunlight. </p>
<p>Over the duration of the eclipse, this increase in nonrenewable energy use led to approximately <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11">10 million pounds</a> of extra carbon dioxide emissions. That’s about the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 1,000 cars.</p>
<p>On April 8, <a href="https://theconversation.com/astro-tourism-chasing-eclipses-meteor-showers-and-elusive-dark-skies-from-earth-207969">eyes across the U.S. will turn upward</a> to catch a glimpse of the eclipsed Sun.</p>
<p>Thanks to the vigilance of electric grid operators, the lights should stay on, and observers won’t have to worry about anything but the stunning show in the sky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vahe Peroomian has, in the past, received basic research funding from NASA and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>When the Moon blocks the Sun during an eclipse, utility suppliers have to pull power from the grid to make up for gaps in solar energy.Vahe Peroomian, Professor of Physics and Astronomy, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238382024-03-07T20:30:56Z2024-03-07T20:30:56ZDetroiters more likely to support local solar power development if they think it reduces energy prices for their community<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579900/original/file-20240305-26-10zpvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels at the DTE O'Shea Solar Park at work in Detroit in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MichiganCOP27ClimateSummit/998d530863cf46989bab44e2dc8fbc82/photo?Query=DTE%20O%27Shea%20Solar%20Park&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8&currentItemNo=1">AP/ Paul Sancya</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Michigan residents overwhelmingly want more solar power. </p>
<p>In the spring of 2023, nearly two-thirds of 1,000 state residents surveyed supported additional <a href="https://ippsr.msu.edu/survey-research/state-state-survey-soss/soss-data/soss-87-spring-2023">large-scale solar development</a>. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://dougbessette.com/">Energy Values Lab</a> at Michigan State University, we study how the public, and specifically community members living near large-scale wind and solar projects, perceive those projects and the processes by which they are approved.</p>
<p>According to a survey <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/people/jake-white">we conducted in the fall of 2023</a> that has not yet been peer reviewed, there may be less support in urban Michigan communities, particularly among those already living close to an existing solar project. Fewer than half of the 158 residents who took our survey supported their local project. </p>
<p>And around the 10-acre, DTE Energy-owned O’Shea Solar Park in Detroit, support was even lower, with only a third of respondents supporting that project. </p>
<p>What predicted residents’ support of their local project? Mainly whether they saw the development process as just and benefiting local communities.</p>
<p>Those who believed the solar project lowered local community energy costs were most likely to support it. Yet rarely do we see evidence of these projects leading to lower electricity bills for immediate neighbors. </p>
<p>Our survey shows that residents living next to three solar projects across Michigan preferred housing over solar development by a 4-to-1 margin. This was even stronger in Detroit, where respondents living near the O’Shea Solar Park preferred housing over solar development by a margin of 18 to 1. </p>
<p>Even among those who supported the O’Shea project, more than half said they would have preferred housing instead of solar panels. </p>
<h2>Local importance: Detroit</h2>
<p>Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s administration is moving forward with an <a href="https://planetdetroit.org/2024/01/parts-of-detroit-could-be-radically-transformed-by-city-solar-plan-for-better-or-worse/">urban solar initiative</a> to place 33 megawatts of solar panel arrays on 250 acres of mostly, but not entirely, vacant urban residential land in the city. The city proposes six separate solar parks of around 40 acres each that would power 127 city buildings.</p>
<p>Duggan is pitching these solar developments as a way to fight climate change and <a href="https://planetdetroit.org/2023/06/can-detroit-fight-blight-with-solar-panels/">reduce blight and illegal dumping</a> by fencing off areas that will be maintained by third-party solar developers.</p>
<p>The plan proposes <a href="https://detroitmi.gov/news/city-announces-9-finalists-solar-field-host-neighborhoods">one-time benefits</a> for affected residents, including $10,000 to $25,000 per household in “community benefits areas” surrounding each solar park for home energy improvements. For those who would be displaced within the projects’ footprints, the city would offer 18 months of free rent to renters or double the fair market value with a minimum payment of $90,000 for homeowners. </p>
<p>City officials have said they are working to build consensus and document support for these projects within the affected neighborhoods.</p>
<p>These kinds of benefits led to the limited support solar projects got from neighbors in our survey.</p>
<p>Notably, there is no guarantee of ongoing direct economic benefits for local residents. In a statement to the media, the mayor suggested that the O'Shea project might “<a href="https://inovateus.com/motown-goes-solar-oshea-solar-project-to-transform-abandoned-urban-park/">provide power to residents more cheaply</a>,” but cheaper power was not provided to residents living near Detroit’s first urban solar project at O’Shea Park, and it is not currently offered to local residents with this new urban solar initiative. </p>
<h2>Solar development leading to an ‘urban-urban divide’?</h2>
<p>The Duggan administration’s push for urban solar development is situated in a larger narrative, one researchers often call the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12486">rural-urban divide</a>.”</p>
<p>Recent research shows that rural residents prefer solar to be developed on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102597">previously disturbed or developed land</a> and often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12486">oppose solar projects</a> because the electricity generated typically does not stay local but is instead used by cities and urban residents.</p>
<p>Our survey reveals similar sentiments among urban Michigan residents and suggests what may be a growing “urban-urban divide” in solar development between the mayor, city council and residents.</p>
<p>One O’Shea resident explains this trend, noting that residents who live near the solar array continue to pay high electricity bills while facing frequent power outages. </p>
<p>“We have constant blackouts from storms in this area. Our lights may be out up to a week,” the resident said. “There is no compensation for loss of food, heat or lights.”</p>
<p>Yet, while the <a href="https://detroitmi.gov/news/city-announces-9-finalists-solar-field-host-neighborhoods">Detroit states it plans</a> to “leverage the insight and lessons learned from the O’Shea site in developing the current solar energy plan,” their current plan includes demolishing houses and not providing cheaper electricity to those neighborhoods. </p>
<h2>Development concerns</h2>
<p>Michigan has plenty of open land but <a href="https://news.umich.edu/housing-shortages-across-michigan-alarming-local-leaders-according-to-u-m-survey/">severely lacks affordable housing</a>. Demolishing over 100 homes and sending those occupants elsewhere is not likely to improve this situation. </p>
<p>The city of Detroit need not place these projects on city land in order to power city buildings or provide benefits to Detroit residents. They could place solar on land outside the city, as has been done in <a href="https://energynews.us/2023/06/12/largest-solar-farm-in-illinois-will-help-chicagos-city-operations-meet-climate-goal/">Chicago</a> and <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/02/the-biggest-municipal-solar-farm-in-the-us-is-coming-to-cincinnati/">Cincinnati</a>.</p>
<p>In this scenario, residents keep their houses and get the benefits too, but only if the city passes on those savings. </p>
<p>That could, however, run back into the problem of solar’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2020.1856638">rural-urban divide</a>, namely rural residents preferring not to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12486">send their locally generated electricity</a> to cities. </p>
<p>Notably, a strong anti-solar movement among rural Michigan residents may make building solar in more rural areas a challenge. Rural residents have organized to <a href="https://planetdetroit.org/2024/02/whos-behind-a-ballot-initiative-to-repeal-michigans-renewable-energy-siting-law/">overturn a new law</a> that removes solar siting decisions from local control, placing it with state regulators. Currently, the residents of Detroit don’t have any direct say over the mayor’s plan.</p>
<h2>So, what should be done?</h2>
<p>Our research shows that both rural and urban residents want benefits from solar <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103375">energy projects to stay local</a>, not sent out of town – or even downtown. </p>
<p>Furthermore, our research suggests solar projects should be developed only in communities where those projects align with existing community values, objectives and land use plans. </p>
<p>Such alignment requires officials and developers to increase their engagement with community members, importantly doing so in person, according to our survey respondents. It also requires them to be transparent about their decisions and explicitly discuss both the positives and negatives of projects so residents can decide whether a project makes sense for them. </p>
<p>Finally, and perhaps most importantly, officials could push for more of the economic benefits from projects to stay local. </p>
<p>This could take the form of allowing neighbors of projects to subscribe to the power generated by the array and providing on-bill credits or by encouraging what have been called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102597">good neighbor payments</a>.” </p>
<p>These small payments, paid out annually to a project’s closest neighbors, could go a long way to increasing support for solar in the long run.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Bessette receives funding from the Department of Energy: Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Solar Energy Technologies Office and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jake White receives funding from the Department of Energy: Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Solar Energy Technologies Office and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Detroit’s plan to install solar panels in city neighborhoods may conflict with residents’ desires to see lower energy bills and more housing.Douglas Bessette, Associate Professor for Energy Systems, Michigan State UniversityJacob White, Research Assistant, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247432024-03-07T03:34:32Z2024-03-07T03:34:32ZBig businesses will this year have to report their environmental impacts – but this alone won’t drive change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580340/original/file-20240307-24-6jfhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1690%2C0%2C4539%2C2830&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/open-pit-mine-industry-big-yellow-1521928421">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, large businesses in Australia will likely have to begin reporting their environmental impacts, climate risks and climate opportunities. </p>
<p>The final draft of Australia’s new mandatory climate disclosure laws are due any day now, <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2024-466491">following consultation</a>. </p>
<p>These laws are meant to increase transparency about how exposed companies are to risks from climate change, and will require companies to look into and share what impact their activities have on the environment. This, the government hopes, will accelerate change in the corporate sector. </p>
<p>But will it help lower emissions? I don’t think so. We <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-carbon-tax-can-have-economic-not-just-environmental-benefits-for-australia-210380">don’t have</a> a carbon tax, which means many companies have no financial incentive to actually lower their emissions. (The strengthened Safeguard Mechanism applies to about 220 big emitters, but they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy-213874">simply buy offsets</a> and avoid harder change.) </p>
<p>By themselves, climate disclosures will not trigger the change we need. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="car fleet company" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A company’s emissions and environmental impact come from many sources, from vehicle fleets to electricity use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Why are these laws being proposed?</h2>
<p>In June 2023, the newly formed <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board">International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)</a> released a set of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s1-general-requirements/">sustainability standards</a> and <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/">climate disclosures</a>. </p>
<p>These standards have influenced Australia’s draft laws. </p>
<p>In planning mandatory corporate disclosures on climate and environment, Australia is following similar efforts overseas. In 2022, the United Kingdom began to roll out mandatory reporting on climate risks and opportunities for the largest UK companies (those with more than 500 employees and A$970 million in turnover). </p>
<p>Once the Australian legislation comes into effect, it will require large companies and asset owners to publish their climate-related risks and opportunities. </p>
<p>In the draft legislation, companies would have to evaluate and report on their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from sources they own or control and from sources such as purchased electricity.</p>
<p>From July this year, the laws would require disclosures from companies with 500 employees, $1 billion in assets or $500 million in revenue. Over time, this would expand to medium-sized companies. From July 2027, companies with 100 employees, $25 million in assets or $50 million in revenue would have to share this information. </p>
<p>Sustainability reports will be subject to external auditing and directors would be personally liable for the accuracy of the disclosures – with one major exception.</p>
<p>For many Australian companies, it’s already proving too hard to account for <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/corporate-value-chain-scope-3-standard">Scope 3 emissions</a> – the greenhouse gas emissions upstream and downstream in a company’s operations, such as the emissions from gas burned after we export it. </p>
<p>As these emissions occur outside a company’s direct control, accounting for them is a complex task costing time and money. Only some companies have voluntarily started to report their Scope 3 emissions in anticipation of future regulatory change.</p>
<p>The draft legislation exempts companies from the need to report Scope 3 emissions for their first year of reporting and proposes limited liability for these disclosures for a fixed three-year period. </p>
<p>This means companies can simply come up with a best-guess estimate, rather than reporting their actual Scope 3 emissions, which can make up <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">65–95% of their overall emissions</a>. In some sectors, such as the integrated oil and gas industry, Scope 3 emissions can comprise more than <a href="https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/scope-3-carbon-emissions-seeing/02092372761">six times the sum of Scope 1 and 2 emissions</a>. Woolworths’ Scope 3 emissions <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/Net-Zero-Integrity%E2%80%93Assesement-of-the-Net-Zero-Pledges-of-Australian-Companies.pdf">account for 94% of emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>What are disclosure laws meant to do?</h2>
<p>You can see why the government is introducing these laws. To nudge corporate Australia towards a greener future, it helps to know what impact your business has – and what risks it is exposed to. It will also be useful for investors.</p>
<p>But it will not drive rapid decarbonisation. Critics have pointed out that reporting and disclosure alone <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01174-8">will not lead</a> to a shift away from carbon-intensive business operations. Disclosures give the appearance of action rather than real action. If there are no stronger policies accompanying, disclosures act as window dressing for global financial markets. </p>
<p>Our existing policies do not require organisations to make genuine changes in terms of their emissions. Unless organisations abandon their reliance on fossil fuels and substantially decarbonise their operations, we are simply not going to get any change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-disclosures-corporations-underprepared-for-tighter-new-standards-study-of-100-companies-reveals-210737">Climate disclosures: corporations underprepared for tighter new standards, study of 100 companies reveals</a>
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<p>These laws also come with a cost. The regulatory burden and compliance costs for Australian companies will not be trivial, especially for companies which haven’t reported on climate or sustainability before. </p>
<p>We already have a shortage of trained <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/australian-auditors-lag-on-climate-risk-disclosure-expert-warns-20200402-p54gfy">reporting, auditing and assurance professionals</a> able to do climate and environment work, following years of minimal action on climate change in Australia. To fix this will require substantial and rapid upskilling. </p>
<p>These costs should give us pause. It’s worth thinking through how much emphasis we place on disclosures to drive change versus policies that would actually drive change, such as mandating that large companies have to reduce their direct emissions 10% a year.</p>
<p>Australian companies can only benefit from these laws if they use the data unearthed by disclosure <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">to rethink</a> how they operate, invest and green their supply chains towards sustainability. This may mean <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999318304619">investing</a> in clean technology, shifting from polluting transport fleets to electric, or reconsidering how they produce their products. </p>
<p>And to do that, of course, companies will need to see supportive government policies. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="LNG export ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Should gas exporters track the scope 3 emissions when their product is burned for power overseas?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-drone-ultra-wide-panoramic-photo-2137586843">Aerial-motion/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>These laws can be useful – but not alone</h2>
<p>Assuming the laws pass, big companies will begin assessing and reporting their emissions and environmental impact from July this year. </p>
<p>In doing so, Australia will align itself with international efforts for more transparency. Requiring companies to scrutinise and disclose their environmental impact will give corporate leaders the data needed to look for greener ways to run their business. But this assumes they have the interest and time to do so. </p>
<p>This isn’t a quick fix for climate change. To be worth the cost, Australia will need to link climate-related financial disclosures to clear policies designed to bring down emissions. </p>
<p>Disclosure policies produce disclosures. Emission reduction policies produce emission reductions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-approves-first-us-climate-disclosure-rules-why-the-requirements-are-much-weaker-than-planned-and-what-they-mean-for-companies-224923">SEC approves first US climate disclosure rules: Why the requirements are much weaker than planned and what they mean for companies</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martina Linnenluecke receives funding from the Australian Research Council and from UTS in the form of a Strategic Research Accelerator Grant.</span></em></p>Will it make a difference when companies have to track and report emissions and environmental impact? Only if policies with teeth follow.Martina Linnenluecke, Professor of Environmental Finance at UTS Business School, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2240542024-02-29T21:22:20Z2024-02-29T21:22:20ZThermal networks: The missing infrastructure we need to help enable carbon-free heating<p>Most of us who live in the Northern Hemisphere have a fundamental problem: we want to reduce our carbon emissions, but we also need to heat our homes.</p>
<p>The good news is there is a way to do both by creating thermal networks. A thermal network is a system of insulated, underground pipes that directly distribute heat to homes and other buildings using heat generated from clean sources — including nuclear reactors.</p>
<p>Rather than using their own furnaces, boilers, fireplaces or electric baseboard heaters to heat buildings, consumers would receive heat directly from a utility. </p>
<p>It’s an opportunity that is set to grow as Canada expands its nuclear energy supply and creates more heat in the process, especially with <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Canadian-government-launches-SMR-support-programme">small modular reactors</a> expected to start coming on-stream in the next decade.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">Are small nuclear reactors the solution to Canada’s net-zero ambitions?</a>
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<h2>Scaling up</h2>
<p>Our research collaboration has produced — with the help of experts from McMaster University, The Boltzmann Institute and Canadian Nuclear Association — a <a href="https://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/mcmaster-institute-for-energy-studies/featured-publications/#thermal-networks-position-paper">position paper</a> presenting the case for large-scale thermal networks to be created across Canada, with nuclear power plants potentially providing up to half of the heat. </p>
<p>Similar technology using heat from non-nuclear sources is <a href="https://cieedacdb.rem.sfu.ca/district-energy-inventory">already a reality in Canada</a> in the form of <a href="https://toolkit.bc.ca/tool/district-energy-systems-2/">district energy systems</a>. </p>
<p>Many buildings in <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/ceedc/publications/facilities/CEEDC%20-%20District%20Energy%20Report%202023.pdf">Toronto, Hamilton, Vancouver</a> and on university campuses, such as McMaster University, are served by hot water or steam-based central heating plants, using heat that is purpose-made and piped across campus. What’s more, Canada already <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2021/toronto-deep-latke-water-cooling-raptors/">leads the world in district cooling networks</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U2nOQnGfgf8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of the basic principle of Toronto’s Deep Lake Water Cooling System produced by the Canada Green Building Council. Thermal networks will move thermal energy similar to the way networked water pipes do, except they will move heat from producer to consumer across a shared system.</span></figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080795/us-thermal-energy-networks/">Thirteen states in the United States</a> are implementing a thermal networks utility model. In <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/opinion/district-heating-and-cooling-is-one-of-europes-top-solution-to-reduce-fossil-imports-but-we-need-decisive-eu-action-to-tap-into-this-potential/">Europe</a>, 67 million people enjoy heating from thermal networks and district heating systems supplied by a variety of sources in a mix that is increasingly <a href="https://vbn.aau.dk/en/publications/heat-roadmap-europe-4-quantifying-the-impact-of-low-carbon-heatin">less reliant on carbon</a>.</p>
<p>The idea is catching on, and it’s time to scale up.</p>
<h2>Leftover heat</h2>
<p>As many as 70 per cent of Canadians live in communities that could be warmed by thermal networks. The networks would deliver heated water that warms buildings in the same way household radiators distribute heat — but on a much <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.12.001">larger public scale</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/zibi-waste-heat-recovery-1.7117832">Such systems</a> are capable of efficiently sending heat through buried pipelines to homes, schools, hospitals, office buildings, shopping malls and other structures, greatly reducing the demand for electricity and heating fuel and making space on the electrical grid to accommodate growing electricity demand from electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps. </p>
<p>One of the most appealing aspects of this opportunity is that most of the required heat is already available and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121291">going unused</a>. Heat from major sources, such as <a href="https://www.powermag.com/district-heating-supply-from-nuclear-power-plants/">nuclear power plants</a>, can be transmitted as far as 100 km to where it is needed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-nuclear-reactor-gentilly-2-1.6932355">Québec</a>, <a href="https://www.opg.com/releases/capital-power-and-opg-partner-to-advance-new-nuclear-in-alberta/">Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick</a> are all considering building new or re-starting existing reactors. Together with existing reactors, much of Canada’s population would fall within this range.</p>
<p>In the case of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119546">reactors</a>, thermal networks could share their useful leftover heat instead of releasing it into the environment as is typically done today. This water, used in coiling, gathers heat but does not come into contact with nuclear material and is in no way contaminated. </p>
<p>The recent joint declaration at the <a href="https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_88702/countries-launch-joint-declaration-to-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-by-2050-at-cop28">UN climate conference COP28</a> to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 means there will be significantly more heat from large reactors, such as the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-darlington-nuclear-plant-1.6899969">new nuclear fleet proposed in Ontario</a>, which could supply warmth to homes in the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p><a href="https://smrroadmap.ca/">Small modular reactors</a>, which are expected to come on-stream widely as local alternatives to fuel-burning sources of electricity, could supply heat locally while also generating revenue from heat that would otherwise be wasted.</p>
<p>Alternatively, residual heat from <a href="https://www.ngif.ca/harvest-systems-successfully-demonstrates-waste-heat-recovery-from-pizza-pizza-ovens/">restaurants</a>, commercial and industrial processes, water heated by solar or geothermal energy, or the combustion of dried biomass can do exactly the same thing with <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Integrating-low-temperature-renewables-in-district-energy-systems">little to no greenhouse gas emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>Funding the change</h2>
<p>Though our appetite for thermal networks is growing, apprehension over the cost of creating large-scale public systems has stifled enthusiasm for implementing them here.</p>
<p>Certainly, the challenge of laying new pipelines to every urban home is daunting, but that need not be a barrier. It’s not that long ago that water, electricity and natural gas were not delivered directly to homes and other buildings, either. </p>
<p>The managers of those utilities, both public and private, developed efficient methods for deployment, balanced the <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/UTAustin_FCe_History_2016.pdf">cost of their infrastructure</a> over decades and included the financing costs in customers’ bills. All of these techniques could help build thermal networks across Canada. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-reuse-waste-energy-to-achieve-net-zero-heating-systems-209416">Why we need to reuse waste energy to achieve net-zero heating systems</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.cga.ca/energy-magazine-post/when-was-canadas-natural-gas-distribution-system-built-and-what-is-it-made-of/">Natural gas only started to become commonly available in Canada</a> in the 1950s, with networks of buried pipes being extended to the most populated areas of the country through the 1980s. <a href="https://brilliantio.com/how-were-homes-heated-in-the-1960s/">Before then</a>, people had oil, coal or wood delivered, or used electricity from coal-fired plants — all of them significant sources of greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The conversion made heating <a href="https://www.fortisbc.com/services/natural-gas-services/considering-upgrading-to-gas-up-to-2700-in-appliance-rebates-available-for-a-limited-time/annual-fuel-cost-comparison">cheaper and cleaner</a>. It <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/canadas-energy-transition/canadas-energy-transition-historical-future-changes-energy-systems-update-energy-market-assessment-global-energy.html">halved our carbon emissions</a>. It required a huge effort, but it happened, and it can happen again.</p>
<p>Thermal networks present an opportunity to harvest heat from natural sources or <a href="https://futurium.ec.europa.eu/en/urban-agenda/energy-transition/library/action-2-recommendation-paper-maximising-use-waste-heat-cities">heat that would otherwise be wasted</a> and use it for a vital purpose of keeping Canadians warm while helping to reduce carbon emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224054/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Cotton is the founder and CEO of Harvest Systems Inc. He receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ontario Centre of Innovation and Boltzmann Institute. </span></em></p>Underground thermal networks have the potential to revolutionize how Canadians heat their homes while helping to reduce carbon emissions.James (Jim) S. Cotton, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245132024-02-28T04:09:29Z2024-02-28T04:09:29ZDutton wants a ‘mature debate’ about nuclear power. By the time we’ve had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal<p>If you believe Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review, Australia wants to go nuclear – as long as it’s small. </p>
<p>Newspoll this week <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">suggests a majority</a> of us are in favour of building small modular nuclear reactors. A <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/afr-readers-want-small-nuclear-reactors-considered-20230723-p5dqi9">poll of Australian Financial Review readers</a> last year told a similar story.</p>
<p>These polls (and a more general question about nuclear power in a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-warm-to-nuclear-as-billionaire-andrew-forrest-slams-coalition-bulldust-20240226-p5f7wo.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers this week) come after a concerted effort by the Coalition to normalise talking about nuclear power – specifically, the small, modular kind that’s meant to be cheaper and safer. Unfortunately, while small reactors have been around for decades, they are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223015980">generally costlier</a> than larger reactors with a similar design. This reflects the economies of size associated with larger boilers. </p>
<p>The hope (and it’s still only a hope) is “modular” design will permit reactors to be built in factories in large numbers (and therefore at low cost), then shipped to the sites where they are installed.</p>
<p>Coalition enthusiasm for talking about small modular reactors has not been dented by the failure of the only serious proposal to build them: that of NuScale, a company that designs and markets these reactors in the United States. Faced with long delays and increases in the projected costs of the <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/products/voygr-smr-plants">Voygr reactor</a>, the intended buyers, a <a href="https://www.uamps.com/">group of municipal power utilities</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs">pulled the plug</a>. The project had a decade of development behind it but had not even reached prototype stage. </p>
<p>Other proposals to build small modular reactors abound but none are likely to be constructed anywhere before the mid-2030s, if at all. Even if they work as planned (<a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/small-nuclear-reactors-come-with-big-price-tag-report/">a big if</a>), they will arrive too late to replace coal power in Australia. So Opposition Leader Peter Dutton needs to put up a detailed plan for how he would deliver nuclear power in time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1761878125166932135"}"></div></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So why would Australians support nuclear?</h2>
<p>It is worth looking at the claim that Australians support nuclear power. This was the question the Newspoll asked:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This question assumes two things. First, that small modular reactors exist. Second, that someone is proposing to build and operate them, presumably expecting they can do so at a cost low enough to compete with alternative energy sources. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, neither is true. Nuclear-generated power <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">costs up to ten times as much</a> as solar and wind energy. A more accurate phrasing of the question would be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a proposal to keep coal-fired power stations operating until the development of small modular reactors which might, in the future, supply zero-emissions energy. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It seems unlikely such a proposal would gain majority support.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/military-interests-are-pushing-new-nuclear-power-and-the-uk-government-has-finally-admitted-it-216118">Military interests are pushing new nuclear power – and the UK government has finally admitted it</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>Building nuclear takes a long time</h2>
<p>When we consider the timeline for existing reactor projects, the difficulties with nuclear power come into sharp focus.</p>
<p>As National Party Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie has <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/that-is-rubbish-bridget-zali-steggall-and-bridget-mckenzie-clash-over-nuclear/video/652fb62845ef39da803325f0f14bd49d">pointed out</a>, the most successful recent implementation of nuclear power has been in the United Arab Emirates. In 2008, the UAE president (and emir of Abi Dhabi), Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, announced a plan to build four nuclear reactors. Construction started in 2012. The last reactor is about to be connected to the grid, 16 years after the project was announced.</p>
<p>The UAE’s performance is better than that achieved recently <a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/nuclear-construction-time">in Western countries</a> including the US, UK, France and Finland.</p>
<p>In 16 years’ time, by 2040, most of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations will have shut down. Suppose the Coalition gained office in 2025 on a program of advocating nuclear power and managed to pass the necessary legislation in 2026. If we could match the pace of the UAE, nuclear power stations would start coming online just in time to replace them. </p>
<p>If we spent three to five years discussing the issue, then matched the UAE schedule, the plants would arrive too late.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-australia-to-join-the-nuclear-renaissance-but-this-dream-has-failed-before-209584">Dutton wants Australia to join the "nuclear renaissance" – but this dream has failed before</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It would take longer in Australia</h2>
<p>Would it be possible to match the UAE schedule? The UAE had no need to pass legislation: it doesn’t have a parliament like ours, let alone a Senate that can obstruct government legislation. The necessary institutions, including a regulatory commission and a publicly owned nuclear power firm, were established by decree.</p>
<p>There were no problems with site selection, not to mention environmental impact statements and court actions. The site at Barakah was conveniently located on an almost uninhabited stretch of desert coastline, but still close enough to the main population centres to permit a connection to transmission lines, access for workers, and so on. There’s nowhere in Australia’s eastern states (where the power is needed) that matches that description.</p>
<p>Finally, there are no problems with strikes or union demands: both are illegal in the UAE. Foreign workers with even less rights than Emirati citizens did almost all the construction work.</p>
<p>Despite all these advantages, the UAE has not gone any further with nuclear power. Instead of building more reactors after the first four, it’s <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/energy/uae-new-1500mw-solar-plant-to-be-developed-in-abu-dhabi-will-power-160000-homes">investing massively</a> in solar power and battery storage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-minister-chris-bowen-says-replacing-coal-fired-power-stations-with-nuclear-would-cost-387-billion-213735">Climate minister Chris Bowen says replacing coal-fired power stations with nuclear would cost $387 billion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Time to start work is running out</h2>
<p>The Coalition began calling for a “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/peter-dutton-calls-for-mature-debate-over-nuclear-energy/news-story/bb023ce4ee8691c1709b772876f6beca">mature debate</a>” on nuclear <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/06/the-coalition-didnt-do-much-on-nuclear-energy-while-in-office-why-are-they-talking-about-it-now">immediately after losing office</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s now too late for discussion. If Australia is to replace any of our retiring coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors, Dutton must commit to this goal before the 2025 election. </p>
<p>Talk about hypothetical future technologies is, at this point, nothing more than a distraction. If Dutton is serious about nuclear power in Australia, he needs to put forward a plan now. It must spell out a realistic timeline that includes the establishment of necessary regulation, the required funding model and the sites to be considered.</p>
<p>In summary, it’s time to put up or shut up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Small modular reactors are popular among conservative politicians and supposedly the Australian public. But they’re nowhere near ready to power Australia in time to replace coal-powered stations.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241482024-02-27T22:57:44Z2024-02-27T22:57:44ZWe can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578151/original/file-20240227-24-2wzo6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-cloud-details-530178991">Janelle Lugge/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 13, six transmission line towers in Victoria were destroyed by extreme wind gusts from thunderstorms, leading to forced electricity outages affecting tens of thousands of people. The intense winds knocked trees onto local power lines or toppled the poles, which caused about 500,000 people to lose power. Some people went without electricity for more than a week. A month earlier, severe thunderstorms and wind <a href="https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/storm-destroyed-transmission-line-rebuilt-and-re-energised/">took out</a> five transmission towers in Western Australia and caused widespread outages. </p>
<p>Intense thunderstorm events have made news in recent years, including the January 2020 storms that caused the collapse of <a href="https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Cressy_500kV_Tower_Incident_31Jan2020_report.pdf">six transmission towers in Victoria</a>. Perhaps the most far-reaching storms were those in 2016, when all of South Australia lost power for several hours after <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/thunderstorm-reports/Severe_Thunderstorm_and_Tornado_Outbreak_28_September_2016.pdf">extreme winds</a> damaged many transmission towers. </p>
<p>So are these thunderstorms with extreme winds getting worse as the climate changes? It’s possible, but we can’t yet say for sure. That’s partly because thunderstorms involve small-scale processes harder to study than bigger weather systems. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How can wind topple a giant transmission tower?</h2>
<p>Many people saw the photos of transmission towers bent like thin wire and wondered how it was possible.</p>
<p>The reason is physics. When wind hits a structure, the force it applies is roughly proportional to the wind speed squared. When wind gusts are stronger than about 100 kilometres per hour, even just for a few seconds, there can be a risk of damage to infrastructure. </p>
<p>Direction matters too. Wind has greater force when it blows more directly towards a surface. If strong winds blow from an unusual direction, risk of damage can also increase. Old trees, for instance, may be more firmly braced against prevailing winds – but if storm winds blow from another direction, they might topple onto power lines. </p>
<p>On February 13, a strong cold front was approaching Victoria from the southeast, bringing thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts over 120 km/h after a period of extreme heat. Thunderstorms can create extremely strong and localised gusty winds, sometimes called “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts">microbursts</a>” due to cold heavy air falling rapidly out of the clouds. These winds were enough to bend towers and topple trees and poles. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C3RqmMQPAd9/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Are these thunderstorm winds getting worse?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">Scientific evidence</a> clearly shows climate change is steadily worsening hazards such as extreme heatwaves and bushfires, which can damage our grid and energy systems. </p>
<p>On balance, evidence suggests tropical cyclones may become less frequent but more severe on average. All but one of Australia’s tropical cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season">this summer</a> have been severe (Category 3 or higher).</p>
<p>But we aren’t yet certain what climate change does to extreme winds from thunderstorms.</p>
<p>This is because high-quality observations of past thunderstorms are relatively rare, with large variability in how often storms occur and their severity, and because climate models have difficulties simulating the small-scale processes which give rise to thunderstorms.</p>
<p>The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/severethunder.shtml#formation">thunderstorms to form</a>. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture. </p>
<p>We also know the severity of thunderstorms can be affected by <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81211-vertical-wind-shear-and-convective-storms">vertical wind shear</a>, which is the way the wind changes with height. To date, we’re less certain about how wind shear will change in the future.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD034633">Recent research</a> by coauthor Andrew Brown and the lead author suggests climate change is likely causing more favourable conditions for thunderstorms with damaging winds, particularly in inland regions of Australia. But the methods used for these predictions are new, meaning more research needs to be done for further insight on what climate change will do to extreme winds.</p>
<h2>We shouldn’t wait to find out</h2>
<p>Modelling extreme wind gusts is still in its infancy. But given so much of our electricity grid is exposed to extreme winds, it’s important we try to address this gap in our knowledge.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say we should treat these storms as a warning. We should factor the risks from extreme winds into how we design our energy systems. It’s especially important as we build a grid able to handle clean energy that we anticipate these kinds of risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>Hardening the grid by burying powerlines and removing vegetation isn’t the only option. We could build a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275411779_The_Grid_Stronger_Bigger_Smarter_Presenting_a_Conceptual_Framework_of_Power_System_Resilience">smarter grid</a>, with distributed renewables and energy storage including large as well as relatively smaller (e.g., community-level or household-level) batteries, giving the grid greater resilience including against extreme weather events.</p>
<p>In the wake of South Australia’s devastating 2016 <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aemc_-_sa_black_system_review_-_final_report.pdf">grid outage</a>, authorities moved to boost grid resilience in this way, building big batteries, more renewables and new interconnectors, while Australia’s energy market operator AEMO changed how it <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">dealt with windfarms</a> if grid issues occur. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Power grids are the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a44067133/how-does-the-power-grid-work/">largest machines</a> in the world. As we move to a clean energy grid, we face complex challenges – not just in building it, but in protecting it against extreme weather. </p>
<p>We would be well served if we work to better understand the risks of compound events, such as combinations of extreme winds, fires or floods hitting a region around the same time. </p>
<p>We also need accurate predictions of risks shortly before extreme winds or other disasters strike, as well as effective long-term planning for the risks likely to increase due to climate change or during different climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.</p>
<p>If we get this response wrong, our energy bills will rise too much and, worse, we still might not have a more resilient system. Since our energy networks are regulated by a complex set of government rules, reform is not just something for industry to address. It must ultimately be led by government – and guided by evidence.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather-224142">Victoria's power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the University of Melbourne's Melbourne Energy Institute and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Vincent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brear receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies. These companies include those that are responsible for energy networks, energy generation, energy retail and energy use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierluigi Mancarella receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies, include those that are responsible for energy networks, generation, retail and use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Extreme winds from thunderstorms have downed transmission towers from Victoria to Western Australia in recent years. What’s going on?Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneAndrew Brown, Ph.D. student, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneClaire Vincent, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneMichael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbournePierluigi Mancarella, Chair Professor of Electrical Power Systems, The University of MelbourneTodd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239642024-02-26T18:59:49Z2024-02-26T18:59:49ZIs there an alternative to 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines? Yes – but you may not like it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576945/original/file-20240221-20-pfrp3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C5362%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/engineering-working-on-highvoltage-tower-check-604767788">Aunging/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Building transmission lines is often controversial. Farmers who agree to host new lines on their property may be paid, while other community members protest against the visual intrusion. Pushback against new lines has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/distrust-anxiety-in-regional-communities-over-renewables/103419062">slowed development</a> and forced the government to promise more consultation. </p>
<p>It’s not a new problem. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/161024868?searchTerm=transmission%20line%20protest">Communities questioned</a> the routes of earlier transmission lines built during the 1950s-70s to link new coal and hydroelectric plants to the cities. </p>
<p>But this time, the transition has to be done at speed. Shifting from the old coal grid to a green grid requires new transmission lines. In its future system planning, Australia’s energy market operator sees the need for 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines in the five states (and the Australian Capital Territory) which make up the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/NEM">National Energy Market</a>. </p>
<p>Do we need all of these new transmission lines? Or will the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-21/rooftop-solar-cells-in-australia-to-outperform-demand/103489806">staggering growth</a>” of solar on houses and warehouses coupled with cheaper energy storage mean some new transmission lines are redundant? </p>
<p>The answer depends on how we think of electricity. Is it an essential service that must be reliable more than 99.9% of the time? If so, yes, we need these new lines. But if we think of it as a regular service, we would accept a less reliable (99%) service in exchange for avoiding some new transmission lines. This would be a fundamental change in how we think of power. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1757595444543434787"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why do we need these new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>The old grid was built around connecting a batch of fossil fuel plants via transmission lines to consumers in the towns and cities. To build this grid – one of the world’s largest by distance covered – <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">required 40,000 km</a> of transmission lines. </p>
<p>The new grid is based around gathering energy from distributed renewables from many parts of the country. The market operator foresees a <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/transmission-infrastructure-lagging-as-planners-seek-to-balance-local-needs-20230904-p5e1st#:%7E:text=More%20than%2010%2C000%20kilometres%20of,the%20Australian%20Energy%20Market%20Operator.">nine-fold increase</a> in the total capacity of large scale solar and wind plants, which need transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s why the market operator lays out <a href="https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation">integrated systems plans</a> every two years. The goal is to give energy users the best value by designing the lowest-cost way to secure reliable energy able to meet any emissions goals set by policymakers. </p>
<p>To avoid having to build transmission lines everywhere, policymakers have opted to group renewables in “renewable energy zones” with good wind or solar resources, and build transmission lines just to the zones. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>According to the market operator, the major reasons why we need such a strong transmission network are: </p>
<p>– to harness flows of variable renewable power from different regions to make sure the system is reliable </p>
<p>– to cope with outages or shortfalls in supply. If a cloud band cuts solar farm output in one state, the grid can draw on solar from another state. </p>
<p>– boosting regional economies with advanced manufacturing and production of emerging green products and technologies.</p>
<p>So while 10,000 km sounds like a lot, it’s been kept to the minimum. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="transmission lines on farmland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Transmission lines are necessary – but people often don’t want them nearby.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-voltage-lines-power-pylons-flat-224476993">Ruud Morijn Photographer/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What if rooftop solar takes over?</h2>
<p>Even so, some <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">energy insiders</a> question whether we need all these new transmission lines. </p>
<p>What if the growth of behind-the-meter energy resources such as rooftop solar, grid-connected home batteries and electric cars begin to cut demand from the grid? </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/how-generous-subsidies-helped-australia-to-become-a-leader-in-solar-power#:%7E:text=Roughly%20one%20in%20three%20Australian,on%20a%20per%20capita%20basis.">one in three households</a> now have solar on their rooftops – the highest solar take up per capita in the world. And as more electric cars arrive in driveways, we will start using their large batteries as a backup power supply for our homes – or to <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/these-ev-owners-are-making-thousands-selling-energy-back-to-the-grid-20231114-p5ejtw">sell the power</a> on the grid. Could it be that cities could make their own power, as Nationals leader David Littleproud has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-re-gonna-eat-bugs-climate-fears-and-conspiracies-at-canberra-renewables-protest-20240208-p5f3e8.html">called for</a>?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>Planners at Australia’s market operator do anticipate ever-greater levels of rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles. Their latest forecasts see these resources with enough capacity to power 30% of the grid by the end of the decade and 45% by mid-century. </p>
<p>These are substantial contributions, but not enough to power a nation. As we move to electrify everything, we will need to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/">roughly double</a> how much electricity we produce. Electricity is a much more efficient way to power transport, for instance, but switching from petrol to electric vehicles will mean more grid demand. </p>
<p>Having said that, we cannot be certain. When we model ways of giving up fossil fuels and ending emissions, there is always major uncertainty over what shape the future will take. Some technologies may splutter while others surge ahead. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="recharging electric car with grid in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Over time, more of us will use electric vehicle batteries to store power or to send it back to the grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-woman-recharge-ev-electric-car-2388670547">Owlie Productions/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>We could trade new transmission lines for a less reliable supply</h2>
<p>At present, electricity is considered an essential service under <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Reliability%20Standard%20Factsheet.pd">national electricity laws</a>. That means there has to be enough power 99.998% of the time. To meet that threshold, outages have to be kept to ten minutes in a year. </p>
<p>Making electricity an essential service is a choice. We could choose differently. If we decided electricity should be a regular service, where 99% reliability is OK (translating to outages of up to 87 hours a year), we would be able to get away with fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s because wealthier households would likely respond to more outages by investing more in big solar arrays and batteries. Some would become energy self-sufficient and cut ties with the grid. </p>
<p>In this scenario, self-generation by the rich would mean a reduced demand on the grid, and we might be able to get away with building fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>But we should be careful here. If we took this approach, we would reshape society. The rich would be insulated while poorer households deal with the pain of power outages. The idea of the grid as a public good would begin to disappear. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-transmission-lines-are-controversial-for-nearby-communities-but-batteries-and-virtual-lines-could-cut-how-many-we-need-208018">New transmission lines are controversial for nearby communities. But batteries and virtual lines could cut how many we need</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s main grid has 40,000 km of transmission lines. Building another 10,000 km quickly is proving hard.Magnus Söderberg, Professor & Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith UniversityPhillip Wild, Senior Research Fellow, CAEEPR, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241422024-02-22T19:19:00Z2024-02-22T19:19:00ZVictoria’s power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?<p>Last week’s destructive storm took Victoria by surprise. As winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour raced through the state, transmission towers near Geelong toppled and the grid went into chaos. </p>
<p>At its worst, almost one in five Victorian homes were left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/victorias-electricity-spot-prices-soar-as-states-largest-coal-generator-suffers-outage">without electricity</a>
while the main transmission system came <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/market_notices_and_events/power_system_incident_reports/2024/preliminary-report---loss-of-moorabool---sydenham-500-kv-lines-on-13-feb-2024.pdf?la=en">close to collapse</a>. </p>
<p>That makes it comparable to Victoria’s last <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/wild-weather-warning-as-storms-lash-melbourne-regional-victoria/100578948">grid-crippling storms</a> in October 2021. </p>
<p>But this power outage could have been much worse. It speaks to the urgent need to harden our grid against the more frequent extreme weather expected under climate change. </p>
<h2>What actually happened?</h2>
<p>It was very hot in Victoria on February 13. Fires raged in central Victoria, claiming dozens of houses. When a cool change arrived, it brought extreme winds. </p>
<p>At about 12.35pm, Australia’s largest windfarm, Stockyard Hill, disconnected from the grid, as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/photos/watch-act-grass-fire-leave-nowincident-location-stockyard-hillissue-date-tuesday/719539106985386/?paipv=0&eav=AfZh-4_GUI540qgzMqlBWjgP6p6IhujLW7rBtJ4YFeC4rUOuizrz_zn82hPUhOAsn3g&_rdr">grass fire</a> threatened its grid connection. </p>
<p>As it happens, the loss of the windfarm was actually a lucky break.</p>
<p>At 2.08pm, six of Victoria’s highest voltage transmission towers (500 kiloVolt) were toppled by extreme downdrafts. This catastrophe took out two sets of 500 kV powerlines transporting much of the electricity from wind farms in western and south western Victoria to Melbourne. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>At the time of collapse, the circuits were likely fairly heavily loaded. They would have been much more heavily loaded had Stockyard Hill windfarm not dropped off the system 90 minutes earlier from the unrelated grass fire. </p>
<p>In response to the 500 kV faults, voltages dipped, forcing all four of the large coal-fired generating units at Loy Yang A to disconnect. Two wind farms in western Victoria were disconnected automatically, as intended in their cases.</p>
<p>During most of the transmission crisis, rooftop solar became the largest source of supply in Victoria.</p>
<p>In addition to the transmission events, damage to local distribution poles and wires was widespread, especially in regional Victoria. This <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/experts-to-review-victoria-s-energy-crash-after-extreme-storms-20240220-p5f6as.html">cut power</a> to about one in five Victorian homes. </p>
<p>In about two hours, the power system had stabilised. Gas and hydro generators rushed in to fill the gap left by Loy Yang A and the wind farms, and Victoria got through its evening peak. Many homes on however still remain without power through distribution network failures.</p>
<p>In response, the Victorian government has <a href="https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-independent-review-of-storm-response/">announced</a> it will appoint an independent panel to review the disaster, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/independent-review-green-lit-into-vic-storms-blackout">closely following</a> the review of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/dandenongs-storms-residents-still-reeling-a-year-later/103068ad-295d-41db-9618-27386380c498">devastating storms</a> in June 2021. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review">final recommendations</a> from the review of the 2021 storms, the panel played it safe, calling for better communication with affected communities, beefed up emergency responses and relief delivery and so on. </p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20Response%20to%20the,Victoria%20to%20submit%20a%20request">accepted</a> a key recommendation: any major changes to strengthen network resilience should be referred to the Australian Energy Markets Commission, thereby kicking the big challenges into the long grass.</p>
<p>This time round, the omens are inauspicious. The government has explicitly excluded transmission from its review, instead relegating it to the electricity safety regulator. This is short-sighted. The Victorian transmission network is heavily exposed to weather risk and it is getting worse. </p>
<h2>What should be done about it?</h2>
<p>This won’t be the last grid-buckling extreme weather we’ll see. Far from it. </p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to reduce weather risk, and putting high (and low) voltage lines underground is often spoken about. </p>
<p>It will be expensive. In the wake of devastating fires, California’s <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/safety/community-wildfire-safety-program/system-hardening-and-undergrounding.html#:%7E:text=We%20are%20upgrading%20our%20electric,improve%20reliability%20during%20severe%20weather.">largest utility</a> committed to put 16,000 km of lines underground. So far, almost 1,000 km has been completed. But the cost has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/fighting-fires-in-the-power-sector/">been substantial</a> – around A$3.2 million a kilometre. </p>
<p>Victoria has 148,000 km of distribution lines of which 84% is overhead and 16% underground, a similar proportion to the rest of Australia. It’s much easier and cheaper to put distribution lines underground than transmission lines. </p>
<p>If we optimistically assume the same cost as in California, boosting the proportion of Victoria’s distribution network that is underground by 10 percentage points (to 26%) would cost around $37 billion. That’s more than double the regulatory value of the distribution network in Victoria. </p>
<p>Is enhanced vegetation management – widespread tree clearing near lines cheaper? Perhaps not. <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP347.pdf">Research in California </a> suggests undergrounding may actually be more cost-effective in terms of fires avoided. </p>
<p>More cost-effective than undergrounding are rapid switches, devices able to quickly clear faults and reduce the chance downed lines will start fires. Victoria began requiring distributors to install these from 2016, following the state’s 2009 Black Saturday fires, where downed powerlines sparked several lethal blazes. Their effectiveness is yet to be proven. </p>
<p>These are difficult questions and much is to be gained by considering them carefully. This will require the government to reach for more than another set of “must-try-harder” recommendations.</p>
<h2>What about building new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>Even as extreme weather topples huge transmission towers, state and federal governments are pressing ahead to build more. Expanding transmission capacity is important to decarbonise our electricity supply. But if not done well, it will increase exposure to weather risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/cb01c4_adef2391c5414148bf8f388a0f1dcebe.pdf">Our study</a> of VNI-West, the proposed massive new Victoria-New South Wales interconnector, found it would greatly increase Victoria’s energy security risk.</p>
<p>Why? Because it will be very heavily loaded, much more so than the 500 kV lines that failed last week, and it carries two sets of conductors on one set of towers. </p>
<p>This proposed new interconnector will make Victoria deeply dependent on NSW for its electricity supply. In a little over a decade Victoria is expected to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">import 26%</a> of its grid-supplied electricity, much of it conveyed on VNI-West. This is an astonishing and little-known aspect of Victoria’s existing electricity policy.</p>
<p>Vandalism or extreme weather could, at a stroke, disable this new transmission line. In our report we drew attention to sabotage and weather risk and since out report we have seen yet more evidence of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/two-charged-after-allegedly-tampering-with-power-pole-that-cut-electricity-to-thousands-of-homes-20230913-p5e4cc.html">sabotage</a>, and now we have another clear example of the risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s market operator has <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_e9a4bfe6fd1f44ffb16b1d3eb9da3e5c.pdf">brushed off</a> our critique without reason.</p>
<p>Victoria dodged a bullet last week. It could have been far worse. To be ready for the next major storm, we should at the very least have a bipartisan parliamentary inquiry into the events of February 13. And this must scrutinise whether the proposed Victoria-NSW interconnector could survive a similar event – and what would happen if it did not. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transmission towers bent like soft plastic when extreme winds whipped through Victoria last week. Fixing it means asking hard questions.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172752024-02-20T19:57:01Z2024-02-20T19:57:01ZFire is a chemical reaction. Here’s why Australia is supremely suited to it<p>Over the last 15 million years, Australia has slowly dried out. After humans arrived more than 65,000 years ago, they learned to use fire to their advantage. Today, fire weather is getting more frequent – and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">fires are following</a> as the world heats up. This month, fires have flared in Victoria, destroying 46 houses, while Western Australia endures a heatwave and braces for <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/extreme-fire-danger-conditions-on-tuesday-to-close-wa-schools-dfes-warns-20240219-p5f65r.html">potential fires</a>. </p>
<p>We use controlled fire for food, industry and many other uses. But we fear it when it is uncontrolled. For something so common, it’s not well understood. </p>
<p>Fire is chemistry – a set of reactions known as combustion. Here’s what that means – and why parts of Australia are so well suited to fire. </p>
<h2>What is fire?</h2>
<p>For a fire to start, it needs three things: fuel, an oxidising agent and heat. </p>
<p>In bushfires, the fuel is plant material, the oxidising agent is oxygen in the atmosphere, and the heat could come from lightning or the fire itself once it starts. </p>
<p>First, the heat has to get to the fuel. Plants are mostly comprised of cellulose (a natural carbohydrate polymer we can’t digest) and lignin (a complex aromatic hydrocarbon), alongside other organic molecules. </p>
<p>But big molecules such as cellulose and lignin don’t burn easily, unlike small molecules such as propane or ethanol. It takes an external heat source to get them to burn. This is normally in the form of lightning, the cause of <a href="https://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/news-events/events/which-lightning-strikes-ignite-bushfires-review-fire-neural-network-fnn-high-risk">most large bushfires</a>. But humans have added other sources – a flicked cigarette, angle-grinders, or sparks from a downed powerline. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="lightning striking tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576640/original/file-20240220-24-1z8zna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">To start a fire, you need an external heat source such as lightning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/lightning-oak-tree-625416632">David Wheat/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>A little bit of extra heat won’t do it. But when cellulose and lignin are heated to 300°C, pyrolysis begins and the natural polymers begin to break down into small organic molecules, which promptly evaporate and form a gas. </p>
<p>At these temperatures, this gas rapidly reacts with oxygen in the air to produce carbon dioxide, water vapour – and heat. This is combustion. </p>
<p>As it burns, the gas becomes hot enough to glow, as do any solid particles within it. When we gaze at a campfire, that’s what we’re seeing – burning gas, glowing particles. </p>
<p>Many believe it’s the breaking of chemical bonds in the fuel that produces heat. But it’s actually the opposite. When we break any chemical bond, heat is absorbed. It’s making new chemical bonds that releases heat – the creation of water vapour and carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>These newly formed bonds are stronger than the bonds in the hydrocarbon fuel, meaning heat is released overall. So much heat that pyrolysis is sustained, consuming more fuel and spreading the fire. </p>
<h2>What about the water in plants?</h2>
<p>Plant material contains water as well as organic compounds. </p>
<p>There’s a unique bit of chemistry which takes place here. When heat first hits plant material, the water within begins to warm. But water has an extraordinarily high ability to store heat. </p>
<p>As water heats up, it begins to evaporate. Evaporation is endothermic, meaning it absorbs heat. That’s why we use it to stop ourselves overheating – we rely on sweat evaporating off our skin and taking heat with it. </p>
<p>This means you need still more energy to increase the temperature and overcome water’s heat absorbing properties. For pyrolysis to occur at all, the water in the plant matter has to evaporate. If there’s still water in the leaves or bark, it won’t burn. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-stuff-in-a-fire-extinguisher-stop-a-fire-120859">How does the stuff in a fire extinguisher stop a fire?</a>
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<h2>Fire weather and gum trees</h2>
<p>Australia’s forests and bushlands are mostly on the east coast, avoiding the arid interior. But they can’t avoid the extremely hot and dry air the deserts produce, especially over summer. </p>
<p>Hot air can hold a remarkable amount of water. Its ability to soak up water roughly doubles every 10°C. So hot, dry air acts like a sponge. It scours the water from plant matter and soaks it up. </p>
<p>Plant material largely comes from gum trees. Our hundreds of species are famously messy, dropping bark, leaves and limbs on the forest floor. </p>
<p>Eucalyptus leaves often contain large amounts of volatile organic oils. In dry conditions, these leaves act as like natural lighter fluid, or “pre-pyrolysed material”. </p>
<p>This is because eucalypts like fire. Fire wipes out competitor species and can trigger gumnut germination.</p>
<p>When a bushfire begins and starts to spread, it’s usually burning the dead, dry litter and grasses, not large living trees with plenty of water. </p>
<p>Dry fuel is one thing. But a bushfire needs wind to spread. </p>
<p>Hot days in Australia are often windy, due to the temperature difference between hot deserts and cold oceans. If a lightning triggers pyrolysis and starts a fire, wind is what makes it spread. </p>
<p>Wind provides fresh oxygen to the fire front, making it more intense. It also blows hot dry air over fresh fuel ahead of the fire front, drying it out. If there’s no wind, fire spreads much more slowly. </p>
<p>What does it take to end a bushfire? A large fire will naturally burn itself out if there’s no more fuel for it. Heavy rain can douse a fire, though coals can keep smouldering and restart fires if dry, hot air arrives again. </p>
<p>Firefighters make firebreaks to try to starve the fire of its fuel, spray water to wet and cool the fuel or apply chemical agents such as fire-fighting foam to prevent oxygen getting in. </p>
<p>If we add more and more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it traps more heat, leading to hotter days. More heat means fire weather – hot, dry and windy conditions – is more likely. And that means combustion will be more likely in some places. Under climate change, there’s more fire in our future. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-fusion-a-human-history-of-fire-55198">Before fusion: a human history of fire</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Dutton receives funding from The Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We’re all familiar with fire. But do you really know what it is and how it starts? Here’s the chemistry of fire – and why Australia is so prone to going up in flames.Jason Dutton, Professor of Chemistry, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217792024-02-18T07:06:55Z2024-02-18T07:06:55ZCorruption and clean energy in South Africa: economic model shows trust in government is linked to takeup of renewables<p>South Africa <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/south-africa-energy#:%7E:text=Current%20Status%3A,from%20renewables%20will%20grow%20rapidly.">relies heavily</a> on energy from coal-fired power stations, which emit large quantities of carbon. But making the transition to greater use of renewable energies, such as solar, is being hampered by a number of factors. Chief among them is corruption, which is affecting the quality of institutions.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15567249.2023.2291433">a recent paper</a> I set out how perceptions of corruption in the country’s institutions have had a huge impact on the country’s transition to clean energy. This is particularly true of institutions involved in energy, such as the state power utility Eskom.</p>
<p>My findings were based on an econometric model we developed, based on economic theory. It highlighted how perceptions of corruption and the effectiveness of government institutions influenced attitudes towards the country’s energy transition efforts. </p>
<p>Econometrics combines statistics, mathematical models and economic theories to understand and model economic problems. It uncovers the relationships and effects of various economic elements. </p>
<p>The model showed that greater trust in institutions would make people, policymakers and businesses more inclined to adopt renewable energy practices. </p>
<p>The study also found that the quality of the regulatory framework and government’s effectiveness shaped people’s views. This in turn affected decisions around adding renewable energy to the supply mix.</p>
<p>These findings matter because South Africa’s energy transition faces <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-south-africa-pioneered-plans-to-transition-to-renewable-energy-what-went-wrong-218851">a host of challenges</a>. These range from technical and financial challenges to broader political, socioeconomic and institutional hurdles. The key to a successful energy transition is policy that’s aligned with what the environment and the society need. It’s essential to improve institutional quality, put anti-corruption procedures in place and have clear rules. </p>
<h2>Energy mix and vision</h2>
<p>The energy situation in South Africa has changed significantly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-energy-source-sub?time=earliest..2022&country=%7EZAF">since the mid-1990s</a>. Then, coal made up 73%-76% of the primary energy mix. Oil made up 21%-22%.</p>
<p>By 2022, coal’s share had fallen to almost 69%. The share of renewable energy sources had increased to roughly 2.3%. </p>
<p>Our study supports <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306145?casa_token=DpHWzhI7uCUAAAAA:leZ-aq2qmkX6h2AJbtSY5QN-0p9nlTC59L7gMJJgNRHUoJb1qEqY3bvKWt_83rXQhJ_PPe-BwQ">others</a> which show that 2008 was a turning point for the South African economy, particularly the energy sector. The factors involved included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the global financial crisis</p></li>
<li><p>changes in government policies, such as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar092509a">monetary policies</a> </p></li>
<li><p>leadership changes in the country and at Eskom</p></li>
<li><p>power cuts and rising electricity prices </p></li>
<li><p>a downturn in the economy. </p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Institutions and economic implications</h2>
<p>This research was designed to understand the impact of national policies, governmental efficiency and past dependency on fossil fuel. I based the models on historical data about the energy mix and governance scores.</p>
<p>The analysis focused on the share of renewable energy in South Africa’s total final energy consumption. I used this as a proxy for the nation’s shift to cleaner energy. </p>
<p>Institutional quality is a complex concept. In our modelling exercise we therefore used three of the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators">World Governance Indicators</a> to stand for institutional quality: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>corruption perception index </p></li>
<li><p>regulatory quality – perceptions of government’s ability to make regulations that support private sector development </p></li>
<li><p>government effectiveness – perceptions of the quality and trustworthiness of public services. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The first model confirmed a positive relationship between perceptions of corruption-free institutions and the rollout of renewable energy. More renewable energy has been produced when governance scores have been highest.</p>
<p>The second model showed that transparent and effective regulation potentially hindered the adoption of cleaner alternatives. This can be explained by the fact that regulatory decisions have mostly supported the country’s energy dependence on fossil fuels. The energy markets, especially those for electricity, are doing better because of more sensible, open, and high-quality rules. As a result, this reduced the desire to switch to more environmentally friendly, renewable options.</p>
<p>Finally, the third model indicated a negative relationship between higher government effectiveness and the share of renewable energy. Close ties between stable governments and the conventional energy sector are common. This can influence policy choices. If these well-established businesses oppose reforms that jeopardise their interests – much like the fossil fuel sector does – the promotion of renewable energy sources may suffer. </p>
<p>I also saw that there had been a slow rate of change in renewable energy share. That can be attributed to slow procurement processes, coupled with potential lobbying and corruptive practices. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>South Africa has a new <a href="https://www.dmr.gov.za/Portals/0/Resources/Documents%20for%20Public%20Comments/IRP%202023%20%5BINTEGRATED%20RESOURCE%20PLAN%5D/Publication%20for%20comments%20Integrated%20Resource%20Plan%202023.pdf?ver=2024-01-05-134833-383">Integrated Resource Plan 2023</a> which proposes a near-term (2023-2030) plan that combines gas, solar, wind and battery storage. </p>
<p>But to boost the adoption of cleaner energy, South Africa needs to take urgent action to fight corruption and improve confidence in the country’s institutions. </p>
<p>Policymakers should focus first on making regulatory changes. Efficient procurement procedures and honest practices would speed up the shift to renewables. What’s needed are streamlined procurement, greater transparency and more competition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roula Inglesi-Lotz receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF).</span></em></p>The key to a successful energy transition away from coal is good institutional quality supported by anti-corruption procedures and clear rules.Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Professor of Economics, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219902024-02-15T23:34:53Z2024-02-15T23:34:53ZAs the world heats up, solar panels will degrade faster – especially in hot, humid areas. What can we do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575742/original/file-20240214-30-q84wun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=62%2C107%2C5928%2C3880&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/broken-burned-through-solar-panel-caught-1390358633">Tijnlp/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To reach the goal of 82% renewable energy in Australia’s grid by 2030, we’ll need to build a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/draft-2024-isp---overview.pdf?la=en">lot more solar</a>. </p>
<p>But even as we accelerate the rate at which we install solar on our rooftops and in grid-scale farms, the world keeps getting hotter and extreme weather arrives more often. </p>
<p>Solar panels have to be outside, exposed to all weather. They’re built to endure heat, snow, rain and wind. But they have limits. Climate change will mean many panels can degrade faster. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3788">new research</a> examines which areas of Australia will have the worst conditions for solar degradation out to 2059 – and what it will do to the cost of energy. We found solar in Australia’s hot, humid north will degrade fastest, while solar in the arid interior and more moderate climates down south will fare better. </p>
<h2>What makes solar panels degrade?</h2>
<p>When you’re looking to install solar on your rooftop, the warranty will likely be a factor in your eventual choice. Most solar manufacturers offer a 25-30 year warranty, where they guarantee power output will drop by less than 20% over that time. </p>
<p>The reason the power output drops at all is that solar panels slowly degrade over time. But different climates, different materials and different manufacturing techniques can lead to faster or slower degradation. </p>
<p>At present, the dominant solar technology is silicon. Silicon modules degrade due to stress from the environment, voltage changes and mechanical stresses, as silicon wafers are quite stiff and brittle. Environmentally, humidity, ultraviolet radiation and temperature are the main causes of damage. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-affect-solar-power-and-grid-stability-across-australia-heres-how-213876">Climate change will affect solar power and grid stability across Australia – here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Hotter, more humid conditions can accelerate degradation in several ways. The map below combines four types of degradation we predict will worsen under climate change. These are: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>delamination: heat and humidity can cause the bonds holding the different layers of the cell together to lose adhesion</p></li>
<li><p>discoloured encapsulant: intense sunlight and extra moisture can damage or discolour the encapsulant, the polymer used to adhere layers within the solar cell together</p></li>
<li><p>ribbon corrosion: if it’s more humid more often, it increases the chances moisture can accumulate and begin corroding the internal ribbon connections of the cell</p></li>
<li><p>internal circuit failure: solar cells experience regular temperature fluctuations, daily and seasonally. These temperature changes can over time cause circuits to fail. A hotter world will add extra stress to internal circuits, leading to a higher chance of failure. </p></li>
</ol>
<p><iframe id="bxVqS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/bxVqS/11/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What will climate change do?</h2>
<p>Our results predict degradation rates will increase across Australia out to 2059 under both <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/changing-climate/future-climate-scenarios/greenhouse-gas-scenarios/">high and low emissions scenarios</a> laid out by the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. </p>
<p>Under a high emissions scenario, solar would degrade twice as fast as it would under a lower emission scenario due to the extra heat. Solar farms would be able to produce less power and might have to replace panels due to failure more often. On average, this would mean losing about 8.5% of output due solely to extra degradation by 2059. Under a high emissions scenario, this would mean energy could cost 10-12% more. </p>
<p>But the effects wouldn’t be felt equally. Our results show solar built across the hot and humid north of Australia will degrade at especially high rates in the future compared to the arid centre, where conditions are hot but dry. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm in desert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575743/original/file-20240214-28-4vh3lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar in hot, dry conditions will fare better than hot and humid areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-power-station-australia-1041363820">Adwo/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>Heat is the main way solar panels degrade and break in Australia. As the world heats up, it will go from annoyance to very real problem. </p>
<p>At present, very few solar developers are taking climate change into account when they buy their panels. They should, especially those operating in humid areas. They can be more careful while selecting a new solar farm location to ensure their modules have lower chances of failure due to degradation. </p>
<p>To fix the problem, we’ll need to incorporate new ways of cooling panels and improve the materials used. We also need to improve manufacturing processes and materials so we can stop moisture from accumulating inside the panels.</p>
<p>These issues can be fixed. The first step is to understand there is a problem. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sunlight-that-powers-solar-panels-also-damages-them-gallium-doping-is-providing-a-solution-164935">The sunlight that powers solar panels also damages them. 'Gallium doping' is providing a solution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shukla Poddar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’re going to build a lot more solar as we race to clean up the grid. But as the world heats up, solar will degrade faster in hot, humid areas. We need to plan ahead.Shukla Poddar, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Photovoltaics and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223162024-02-14T12:21:07Z2024-02-14T12:21:07ZFive reasons to heat your home using infrared fabric<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575023/original/file-20240212-20-j6tamt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New infrared technology could make homes more energy efficient. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hand-turning-knob-make-home-more-1009692889">Olivier Le Moal/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine heating your home from the ceiling, not from underfloor heating or radiators. Once installed like wallpaper, hi-tech infrared fabric emits heat in a similar way to the sun’s rays. This could be a logical way to add low-carbon heat into existing homes that need retrofitting to improve energy efficiency. </p>
<p>Under the currently proposed legislative changes, no new home will be built with an incoming gas supply <a href="https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/greener-living/gas-boilers-ban-2025.html#">after 2025</a>. If you’re buying a new home that’s been designed and built to the new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/the-future-homes-standard-changes-to-part-l-and-part-f-of-the-building-regulations-for-new-dwellings">Future Homes Standard</a>, you’ve got little to worry about. </p>
<p>But for older properties, retrofitting projects can be complex, inconvenient and expensive. As gas boilers are phased out, heat pumps are usually the preferred alternative for energy-efficient housing. However, infrared fabric technology could be much better suited as a low-carbon heating solution for our existing housing stock, and here’s why.</p>
<h2>1. Instant heat</h2>
<p>Unlike heat pumps, which are a slow response heating system, infrared fabric emits radiant heat that can be felt within minutes. That has multiple advantages. </p>
<p>Gas boilers heat up our rooms quickly so we don’t have to leave the heating on when we’re out, but heat pumps don’t work like that. Instead, they deliver a continuous low level of heat, so homes need to be well-insulated to retain that heat and airtight to stop draughts. But, without draughts, we’ll need a <a href="https://www.eco-home-essentials.co.uk/home-ventilation-systems.html">mechanical ventilation system</a> to circulate fresh air. </p>
<p>Instant radiant heat reduces the need for all these additional interventions by directly heating the people and surfaces in a room rather than the air itself. It can be turned on or boosted to higher temperatures by motion sensors when you enter a room, with instant results. That means you only need to heat the rooms that you’re in, rather than an entire house.</p>
<h2>2. Simple to install</h2>
<p>Infrared fabric looks like a roll of slightly stiff wallpaper. It’s essentially a graphene sandwich, a thin film of carbon between two sheets of paper that conducts low voltage electricity and emits infrared heat, like the sun, but without the light or harmful <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ultraviolet-radiation">ultraviolet</a>. </p>
<p>A room’s ceiling area emits the right amount of heat for a room, making installation very simple in any property, irrespective of its construction, shape or size. It’s little more than a wallpapering job with a click together wiring connection. Your gas boiler could even be left in place for emergencies alongside it. By comparison, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221462962030339X">heat pump installation</a> requires extensive additional works and sometimes a period of relocation.</p>
<h2>3. Affordable heat</h2>
<p>Infrared fabric is affordable to install and maintain due to its simplicity with a total cost of around £100 per sq metre for a full system. And it’s quite indestructible – it can have holes cut out of it and can get wet in floods without any danger to occupants or damage to the material. It’s also affordable to run. </p>
<p>Heat pumps are known to generate more energy than they use, up to three times as much, by taking low grade heat out of the air and <a href="https://www.greenbuildingrenewables.co.uk/a-beginners-guide-to-heat-pumps/">compressing it</a>. Infrared fabric can’t match that, but because radiant heat is instant, it’s only being emitted when needed in the rooms that you’re in, so even allowing for a <a href="https://sunamp.com/en-gb/">hot water system</a> the total energy use can be up to 20% less than from a heat pump.</p>
<h2>4. Radiant heat is healthy and safe</h2>
<p>Once the infrared heat warms the people, objects and surfaces that it touches, they in turn give off secondary heat through the process of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/how-weather-works/what-is-convection#:%7E:text=Convection%20is%20the%20movement%20of,another%20upon%20contact%2C%20transferring%20heat.">convection</a>. But the overall temperature is perceived to be 3˚C warmer than it actually is because people are being heated, as opposed to the air.</p>
<p>That’s both <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/5/e021085">healthier</a> and <a href="https://nexgenheating.com/what-is-nextgen/the-benefits">cheaper</a> to sustain. Radiant heat also means the air carries <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611115001870">fewer allergens</a> due to reduced air movement – it’s the convection currents from traditional heating systems that stir up the dust and allergens.</p>
<p>Infrared panels do the same thing but from a <a href="https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/infrared-heating/the-basics">90˚C point source</a> in your room and with less consistency. Radiators reach 60 – 70˚C, whereas infrared fabric emits a low-level heat (45˚C) over the <a href="https://nexgenheating.com/what-is-nextgen/the-technology">whole area</a>. Heat absorbed into the fabric of the building is retained for longer than warmed air, resulting in a more consistent room temperature across day and night. </p>
<h2>5. Our homegrown future</h2>
<p>Infrared fabric is a UK invention and it’s UK-manufactured. All we need now is for it to be UK accredited. That’s a long and expensive process, but the all important SAP Appendix Q certification is due in 2025 if not before. It already has BSEN (British Standard) approval as a large area low temperature <a href="https://nexgenheating.com/what-is-nextgen/the-technology">emitter</a> and it’s class A fire rated.</p>
<p>The Welsh government already funds its use in retrofit programmes following extensive trials across <a href="https://governmentbusiness.co.uk/news/31052022/heated-wallpaper-trialled-wales">270 homes</a>. Further research is now needed to evidence the health, safety and carbon benefits that will strengthen the case even more for this form of heating. </p>
<p>So if you’re retrofitting an existing property as a home owner, private landlord, housing association or local authority, infrared fabric could be a low-risk, low-cost, low-carbon solution worth considering.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Siebert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New infrared fabric technology is easy to install, cheap to run and affordable so it has huge potential as a future alternative to heat pumps, especially for retrofit projects.Michael Siebert, Lecturer in Architecture, School of Architecture, Design and Built Environment, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2054902024-02-07T19:18:15Z2024-02-07T19:18:15ZThe Nationals want renewables to stay in the cities – but the clean energy grid doesn’t work like that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573981/original/file-20240207-22-lz88mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=123%2C114%2C5762%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/green-rigg-wind-turbines-18-turbine-2052020315">Dave Head/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The bush is full up – no room for more renewables, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-to-cancel-renewable-rollout-nationals-declare-bush-is-full-20240206-p5f2sf.html">according to</a> Nationals leader David Littleproud. Instead, renewables should be restricted to large solar arrays on commercial buildings in the cities. </p>
<p>The country-focused minor party presumably hopes to capitalise on rural scepticism of large scale renewable projects – especially <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/farmer-fury-australia-signals-tough-road-renewable-energy-2023-12-12/">angst around</a> new transmission lines. On the coast, there <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-29/offshore-wind-protest-paddle-out-illawarra-hunter/103036846">have been protests</a> against proposed offshore wind farms. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, fencing off renewables in the cities won’t work. As our <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0253">recent research</a> on onshore wind shows, intermittent energy sources such as wind can work very well to support a modern grid – as long as we locate wind farms in different places. This ensures we can keep the lights on even if it’s dead calm in some areas. </p>
<p>Of course, rooftop solar may well stack up for households and building owners. But we will need new renewable projects in spread-out locations. Banning renewables from the bush is no solution. What we can do is make sure we’re not duplicating wind farms. Each new wind farm should be in the best possible location. </p>
<h2>The best place to build a wind farm</h2>
<p>In 2001, <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2022-integrated-system-plan-isp">renewables supplied</a> 8% of Australia’s energy. In 2023, they <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">supplied almost 40%</a>. </p>
<p>The federal government’s ambitious goal is to supercharge this growth and get to <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/wind-energy">82% by 2030</a>. That’s a meteoric rise, but it has to be. Climate change <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=It's%20official%3A%202023%20was%20the,a%20record%20low%20in%202023.">is accelerating</a>. </p>
<p>Decisions around where to build large renewable projects cannot be left solely to the market – or derailed by protest. </p>
<p>Renewable energy supply is variable by nature. Solar only works at daytime, hydro can be affected by drought or water shortages, and the wind doesn’t blow consistently. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/do-we-want-a-wind-farm-outside-our-window-what-australians-think-about-the-net-zero-transition-214712">Do we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition</a>
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<p>That’s not a deal breaker. It just means you have to have a mix of technologies – and place utility-scale farms in different places. This minimises the need for expensive or resource-dependent energy storage such as pumped hydro and batteries. </p>
<p>At present, wind makes up around a third of <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp">Australia’s renewable supply</a> – about 11% of total electricity generation in the first quarter of 2023. </p>
<p>But wind blows, then stops. By itself, a wind farm can’t provide power at a consistent rate or in lockstep with demand. The power generated is at the whim of the weather and, in the longer term, climate. </p>
<p>To make wind power consistent, you have to build wind farms in different locations chosen for their unique local wind climate. </p>
<p>At present, Australia’s supply of wind farms is reasonably varied. But it could be better still. </p>
<p>We analysed over 40 years of climate data and found Australia’s currently operating wind farms could be producing around 50% more energy if they had been built in optimised locations. </p>
<p>If we had built this network of farms in an optimal way, we would have slashed how variable wind energy is. At present, the locations of current farms means year-to-year variability is around 40% higher than it could have been. </p>
<p>When we added all wind farms under construction or with planning approval, we found these inefficiencies persist. </p>
<h2>We have to get better at placing renewables</h2>
<p>Is this bad news? No. It means we can do better. And it means we can reduce the resistance emerging from some rural and regional residents, who feel their landscapes are being taken over to power far off cities. </p>
<p>Building renewable farms in sub-optimal locations is a burden on the environment, since many more farms have to be built to make up the slack, and can lead to increased energy prices for consumers. </p>
<p>Right now, the cost is masked by the fact that wind’s share in the energy market is small. But that will change. The net zero economy we are building will need wind, both onshore and, increasingly, offshore. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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<p>To build a wind farm, what usually happens is an energy company will find a landowner who agrees to having a farm on their land in exchange for regular rent. The company then <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/advocacy-initiatives/community-engagement/wind-best-practice-implementation-guidelines.pdf">seeks government approvals</a>. </p>
<p>To approve a site for a wind farm, government agencies have to assess many things. How close is it to wetlands home to rare birds? Is the wind resource good enough? To figure out the quality of the wind, regulators usually take measurements at the site and look at historic data. Usually, this pool of data only goes back a few years.</p>
<p>We could do this much better. First, wind power can vary by up to 16%, year to year. La Niña might bring strong winds to a site, while El Niño might bring the doldrums. </p>
<p>To decide on a site based on a couple of years of data means you don’t know the long term average of wind, which could be better or worse than expected. </p>
<p>Second, approvals are site-specific – we don’t compare how similar this potential wind farm will be to farms already built. That means many wind farms simply don’t meet expectations of how much extra power they can supply to the grid. </p>
<p>Once built, wind farms usually operate <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/wind-energy/essentials/">for decades</a>. If we choose inefficient locations, we’re locked in. </p>
<p>But there’s good news here for the National Party, rural residents and everyone concerned with the energy transition. We can fix this problem. </p>
<p>All it would take is one extra step for renewable developers: demonstrate how your proposed wind farm would improve electricity supply overall. That’s it. </p>
<p>And for government, make sure our planned new transmission lines increase access to high quality wind resources. </p>
<p>These two actions sound simple, but they would make a real difference. We could avoid building wind farms in sub-optimal locations, build fewer overall, and accelerate the shift to cheap clean energy. That’s something the city and country can agree on. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and is the Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Gunn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s grumbling in the bush about hosting big new renewable projects to power cities. We can do this smarter.Andrew Gunn, Lecturer, Monash UniversityChristian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227362024-02-05T23:46:49Z2024-02-05T23:46:49ZIs it time for a Category 6 for super cyclones? No – warnings of floods or storm surges are more useful<p>When a tropical cyclone forms, people who live in its path anxiously monitor news of its direction – and strength. If a Category 5 storm with wind speeds of 250 kilometres per hour is heading for you, you prepare differently than you would for a Category 1 with wind speeds of 65 km/h. </p>
<p>In a hotter world, cyclones are expected to become less common but <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">more intense</a> when they do form. That, according to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121">new research</a>, means it might be time to consider introducing a Category 6 to the hurricane scale used in the United States to better communicate the threat. </p>
<p>But do cyclone scales need a new category for more severe storms? Only one hurricane in the Western Hemisphere has yet gone past the 309 km/h winds the researchers nominate for a Category 6. And the whole idea of storm scales, including Australia’s own <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">tropical cyclone scale</a>, is that Category 5 storms are those likely to do catastrophic damage. It’s hard to see what a Category 6 could offer. </p>
<p>What is worth exploring is how we can better communicate what specific threats a given storm poses. Is it carrying more water than average, making flooding a bigger risk? Or are unusually intense winds likely to bring more water ashore in storm surges? </p>
<p>In December, Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 storm in northern Queensland. Despite being at the lower end of severity, it dumped huge volumes of water and triggered devastating floods. Residents and farmers criticised the Bureau of Meteorology for not fully conveying the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-22/bom-warning-far-north-queensland-cyclone-floods-analysis/103256552">size of the threat</a>. More specific warnings could help. </p>
<h2>What are storm scales for?</h2>
<p>The world’s <a href="https://community.wmo.int/en/tropical-cyclone-regional-bodies#:%7E:text=The%20six%20tropical%20cyclone%20Regional,tropical%20cyclones%2C%20hurricanes%2C%20typhoons%20everywhere">tropical cyclone warning centres</a> classify cyclones using simple intensity scale systems based on maximum wind thresholds. Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are different names for the same tropical storms.</p>
<p>There are several different intensity scales in use. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php">Saffir-Simpson scale</a> is used by the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">US National Hurricane Center</a> for hurricanes forming in the central and eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic basins. Different scales are used in the Australian, North Indian, Southwest Indian, and western North Pacific basins. Importantly, every scale in use is open-ended, meaning their final category is based on winds greater than a certain threshold – but with no upper limit.</p>
<p>Tropical cyclones can pose many threat to us while at sea, as they approach and make landfall, and even afterwards.</p>
<p>These threats include the intense winds near the eye of the tropical cyclone, the ring of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/education/natural-hazards/tropical-cyclone-and-severe-wind">damaging winds</a> which can extend hundreds of kilometres from the eye, wind-driven high seas, storm surge, heavy rainfall and associated flooding and mudslides. </p>
<p>We can’t say one of these is definitively more deadly or damaging than any other threat. Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a 2013 Category 1 storm, led to heavy rainfall and flooding through Queensland and New South Wales, while the 1992 Category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic wind damage – but little rain or storm surge damage when it hit Florida.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-ilsa-just-broke-an-australian-wind-speed-record-an-expert-explains-why-the-science-behind-this-is-so-complex-203835">Cyclone Ilsa just broke an Australian wind speed record. An expert explains why the science behind this is so complex</a>
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<h2>So do we really need a Category 6?</h2>
<p>The researchers suggest a Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson scale would be for storms with winds over 86 metres per second (309 km/h). </p>
<p>They suggest five tropical cyclones have now passed that threshold since 2013. Certainly, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf">Hurricane Patricia</a> (2015) would meet that threshold. But this is the only one which meets their criteria in the last 40 years, as it was well observed by US aircraft missions. The other four were not in the Western Hemisphere – they were typhoons affecting Asia. In these areas, meteorologists do not use aircraft reconnaissance to confirm wind speeds. Estimates of wind speeds can vary substantially. That means the wind speeds of these four cannot be verified. </p>
<p>To make their case, the researchers also use the maximum possible intensity a tropical cyclone could reach in a given environment. It’s useful to scientists because it can be directly calculated from climate projections and is often used to explore how tropical cyclone intensity might change in the future. But it has an important limitation – tropical cyclones <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/128/4/1520-0493_2000_128_1139_asaotc_2.0.co_2.xml">rarely reach</a> their maximum potential intensity. </p>
<p>In their original formulation of the Saffir-Simpson scale, Herb Saffir and Bob Simpson described a Category 5 hurricane making landfall as one which would cause catastrophic destruction of all infrastructure. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale</a> has different thresholds but similar reasoning for a Category 5 storm. </p>
<p>Based on the understanding that winds at Category 5 and above lead to catastrophic outcomes, it’s hard to see how adding a Category 6 would help the public. If a Category 5 means “expect catastrophic consequences”, what would Category 6 mean? </p>
<h2>How can we best communicate cyclone threats?</h2>
<p>Scientists came up with tropical cyclone intensity scales as a way to clearly communicate the nature and size of the damage likely to occur. They are not intended to be comprehensive, as they’re based on a single wind speed valid only for the area near the eye, where the most intense winds occur. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, these scales are meant to measure how well our buildings and infrastructure can survive the wind force and also protect us. If our building codes, evacuation plans, and other protective strategies ever improved to the point where Category 5 storms no longer lead to catastrophic loss, it might make sense to introduce a Category 6. But we’re not at that point. The catastrophic loss from a Category 5 or Category 6 would look the same: catastrophic. </p>
<p>What we should do is explore whether we can improve the scale in different ways. Can we keep their simple, effective messages while also capturing the different threats a weather system like this can pose? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-weak-tropical-cyclones-have-grown-more-intense-worldwide-we-tracked-30-years-of-them-using-currents-194891">Even weak tropical cyclones have grown more intense worldwide – we tracked 30 years of them using currents</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Ritchie-Tyo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cyclones and hurricanes are getting more intense. But introducing new categories of storm may not be the answer.Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218382024-01-30T22:36:36Z2024-01-30T22:36:36ZHow a ‘turn it off’ approach to energy conservation could benefit Canada, and the planet<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-a-turn-it-off-approach-to-energy-conservation-could-benefit-canada-and-the-planet" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The challenge for climate change communicators a couple of decades ago was conveying what the research was showing: that the burning of fossil fuels was altering the planet’s climate. That communication played a vital role in facilitating the current widespread understanding that the climate is changing and it is a crisis. </p>
<p>There remains, however, a fundamental communication challenge in moving the focus from consuming different kinds of energy to facilitating a revolution of consuming less. Recent electrical grid events in Alberta offer a compelling case study.</p>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10217359/alberta-extreme-cold-warning-january-2024/">On Jan. 13, 2024, extreme cold hit Alberta — the coldest in half a century</a>. As people turned up their thermostats to stay warm, Alberta’s power grid was put under immense strain. To avoid taking pressure off the electrical grid with rolling blackouts (rotating half an hour power outages throughout Alberta), the <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/albertans-asked-to-conserve-energy-for-2-hours-during-electric-grid-alert-1.6725104">Alberta Emergency Management Agency sent an alert to all Albertans</a>. </p>
<p>This unprecedented use of the emergency system, the first of what would be four alerts, asked Albertans <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-electrical-grid-emergency-decarbonization-1.7083664">to turn off unnecessary electricity — lights, electrical appliances and devices — and use “essentials only.”</a></p>
<p>Albertans responded. <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-power-grid-alerts-aeso-alberta">Within minutes of the initial emergency alert being issued, demand on Alberta’s power grid decreased by 150 megawatts and continued to fall</a>. <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-alberta.html">Alberta has an estimated generative capacity of around 16,330 megawatts.</a>.</p>
<p>Because many people and some businesses voluntarily switched off appliances and other electrical devices that were not needed, there was no need for the rolling blackouts.</p>
<h2>Switching off</h2>
<p>The brief experience of turning off highlighted a couple of things. First, that people are willing to change behaviours when asked. Second, the behaviour change, for some, was positive. As one Albertan <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/alberta/comments/196675j/visual_of_the_immediate_reduced_power_consumption/?rdt=41028">posted on Reddit</a> </p>
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<p>“Our kids made a game out of it. Showered with a candle in the bathroom, we had one small light to read books, ALL the lights off in and outside the house, no TV obviously.” </p>
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<p>Another poster on the same Reddit thread offered that their 10-year-old excitedly asked that all the lights and TV be turned off and added: “It looks like the alert does work.”</p>
<p>In the aftermath, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/alberta-emergency-power-alert-underlines-challenge-of-energy-transition-on-prairies/ar-AA1mXFZm">the news has focused on critiques of Alberta’s current energy generation and how to facilitate growing energy output in the future as fossil-fuels continue to be phased out</a>. Politicians and experts wondered how the grid could be more robust and fail-safe so that there is no need to ask people to turn things off. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-electrical-grid-emergency-decarbonization-1.7083664">Critiques of solar and wind were also quickly offered</a> as were the benefits of new power generation such as <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-power-grid-alerts-aeso-alberta">Alberta’s Cascade Power Project — a 900 megawatt natural gas-fired plant</a> —
and <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-how-alberta-can-avoid-another-grid-alert">increased energy generation flexibility</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the January cold wave produced by the CBC.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But what if the opportunity in Alberta’s power grid struggles is not about producing different kinds of energy but consuming less? </p>
<h2>Looking beyond supply</h2>
<p>The January cold wave is a critical moment to reflect upon the status quo and reimagine a system that values consuming less, not producing more.</p>
<p>Alberta’s electrical grid alerts gave us a glimpse, for a few hours, of a topic largely absent from climate communication: we are consuming too much of everything. We must use and consume less. Less energy, less stuff. We <a href="https://time.com/6341884/climate-change-consumption/">cannot consume our way out of this crisis</a>. </p>
<p>We must consume less, and Albertans proved that this is not only possible but can even be a positive experience.</p>
<p>It is also important, in the depths of an unprecedented cold-weather event, to not lose sight of the fact that globally 2023 was the warmest year on record “by far” — <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far#:%7E:text=Earth's%20average%20land%20and%20ocean,0.15%20of%20a%20degree%20C">beating 2016 (the previous record-setting year) by .15 degrees Celsius (also a record)</a>. </p>
<p>The 10 warmest years on record — since 1850 — have been in the past 10 years and this changing climate is causing extreme wildfires, tornadoes, cyclones, drought, flooding, heat and cold. Here and around the world <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">lives and habitats are indiscriminately being destroyed</a>. This is our emergency alert.</p>
<h2>A new normal</h2>
<p>Shifting to turning off and reducing consumption patterns for individuals, businesses and industry will be incredibly hard. The global economy, and related jobs, are built on consuming more. But the climate crisis, as well as growing inequality and ecosystem destruction, will make status quo levels of consumption increasingly untenable. </p>
<p>The Alberta Emergency Management Agency sent emergency alerts asking people to turn off because the alternative would have been mandatory rolling blackouts. Asking people to turn off voluntarily allowed Albertans to respond with thoughtfulness, dignity and agency. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-why-we-need-to-break-our-addiction-to-combustion-218019">COP28: Why we need to break our addiction to combustion</a>
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<p>We, collectively across Canada and around the world, are in an emergency. The climate crisis is upon us and we have a choice. We can delay structural change and await the extreme climate crisis consequences. Or we can demand that government and industry implement the systemic changes required to avert (or at least mitigate) this catastrophe.</p>
<p>Regardless, the lessons from Alberta are clear. We could all try “turning off” from time to time — saving money, <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190320145559.htm">helping the planet</a> and perhaps reconnecting with friends and family. That, if nothing else, could be a benefit worth championing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221838/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Ellen Good does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alberta’s experiment with voluntary ‘switching off’ was a success both in terms of saving electricity and in showcasing the power of proactive informed action to address the climate crisis.Jennifer Ellen Good, Associate Professor and Chair, Communication, Popular Culture and Film, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2218742024-01-30T19:06:30Z2024-01-30T19:06:30ZRenewable projects are getting built faster – but there’s even more need for speed <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572066/original/file-20240130-23-glcujk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C8%2C5530%2C3102&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How long does it take to build a solar or wind farm? It’s a simple question with wide implications. To reach our ambitious 82% renewable energy target by 2030, we have to build many new projects – and start them soon. </p>
<p>In 2022, renewables hit a new high of 36% of Australia’s total electricity production, double that of 2017. That’s good – but there’s a long way to go. </p>
<p>Hitting the national target <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">will require</a> building about 40 wind turbines (7 megawatts) every month, and 22,000 solar panels (500 watt) every day. </p>
<p>At the start of the year, climate minister Chris Bowen called on all levels of Australian government to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">speed up planning decisions</a> for renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>Reaching our target depends on one little-researched factor: completion time. </p>
<p>Solar and wind projects are built much faster than large fossil-energy plants. But the pre-construction approval process can be complex and slow projects down. In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000458?via%3Dihub">new research</a>, my colleague and I found completion times have fallen significantly in recent years. But we need to go even faster to achieve the 2030 target. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
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<h2>How long does it take to complete renewable energy projects?</h2>
<p>Very few studies have explored renewable energy lead times across a group of renewable projects in Australia or elsewhere. We investigated completion times for 170 onshore wind and solar projects completed in Australia between 2000 and 2023.</p>
<p>Using a <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">data set we built</a>, we found welcome news: Australian renewable projects are being built significantly faster.</p>
<p>Taking an onshore wind farm from idea to reality now takes about 53 months. This is substantially faster than wind farms started before 2016, which took more than 88 months. Obtaining pre-construction approvals and planning took up most of that time.</p>
<p><iframe id="vhKJB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vhKJB/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Solar projects now take about 41 months. It used to be double that, at up to 83 months before 2011. </p>
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<p>Overall, there has been a decrease in solar lead times. Due to recent regulatory changes, the time taken for the construction and final stages has increased from 18 months to 21 months.</p>
<h2>What does it take to build a solar or wind farm?</h2>
<p>We break project lead times down into three stages: </p>
<p><strong>1. Pre-construction</strong> – the developer designs the project and seeks approvals </p>
<p><strong>2. Building and connecting</strong> – the time between starting construction and connecting to the grid to supply energy for the first time </p>
<p><strong>3. Getting commissioned</strong> – this final stage involves obtaining a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/system-operations/generator-performance-standards">performance standard</a> from the Australian Energy Market Operator. Essentially, a new renewable plant has to be able to perform as expected and pass a series of tests. In our study, this stage starts at the time of first generation and finishes when a site generates at least 80% of its total capacity.</p>
<h2>Why can lead times differ?</h2>
<p>Passing through all three stages can be smooth – or fraught. While build times are improving, some projects can get stuck in development for years, making it seem harder than it is.</p>
<p>Delays can come from seeking approvals from multiple authorities and difficulties in accessing and connecting to the grid.</p>
<p>As lead times are rarely tracked across a large number of projects, outliers can skew how long we expect things take to complete. These outliers can get a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-18/woakwine-limestone-coast-wind-farm-delay-decade-after-approval/102361318">lot of publicity</a>. </p>
<p>Even when lead times are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122563">monitored and compared</a>, the raw data isn’t made public. A renewable energy pipeline database should be public and provide historical examples for comparison. It could learn from the <a href="https://infrastructurepipeline.org/">Australia and New Zealand Infrastructure Pipeline</a> and should track and compare lead times.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-hit-82-renewables-in-8-years-we-need-skilled-workers-and-labour-markets-are-already-overstretched-188811">To hit 82% renewables in 8 years, we need skilled workers – and labour markets are already overstretched</a>
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<h2>How did development speed up?</h2>
<p>It wasn’t a single policy or process change that drove these faster build times. But the improvements in lead times were driven by faster pre-construction planning and approval stages.</p>
<p>We found clear evidence some states are faster than others. South Australia – Australia’s top renewable state – had notably lower pre-construction lead times for both wind and solar, likely due to streamlined approvals. We found some evidence of fast approvals for solar in Victoria.</p>
<p>Changes in project ownership occurred often (38% of projects) but this had little impact on how long they took to complete.</p>
<p>One issue that has increased lead times in Australia was a 2017 change to how renewables are tested, introduced as a response to the South Australia <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/reports/compliance/investigation-report-south-australias-2016-state-wide-blackout">statewide blackout</a> of 2016. One aspect of this – the controversial “do no harm” system strength assessment – has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemc-dumps-do-no-harm-rule-to-end-chaotic-response-to-system-strength-issues/">since been removed</a>. </p>
<p>These changes added an average of three months of delay for projects commencing construction after 2017. </p>
<h2>We can go faster still</h2>
<p>Even though Australian renewable lead times have shortened significantly since 2010, we should do more. After all, there are now only 71 months until 2030, when Australia’s renewables targets must be met. </p>
<p>Government approvals could be sped up if renewable developers can clearly see the steps to follow and deal with one central agency. All authorities involved should have maximum response times for key stages of the approval process. </p>
<p>Suitable projects located close to existing projects could also be assessed as expansions and not new developments. This would notably streamline the process. Authorities are already allowing developers to do this when approving grid-scale batteries to be installed near solar farms. </p>
<h2>Why do we need this data?</h2>
<p>If you’re a renewable energy developer, it’s vitally important to know how long it normally takes to get a project up and running. It’s also a key piece of data for investors and policymakers. </p>
<p>That’s why we have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107337">provided clear detail</a> of our data collection technique so it can be used by researchers, consultants, and government employees. Our data set is also <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">available for download</a>.</p>
<p>Is it still possible to hit 82% renewable energy by 2030? Yes – but based on our lead-time estimates, only if most projects start their planning phase in the next couple of years. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden receives funding from James Martin Institute for Public Policy. He is the Secretary of the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions (ICEDS), Australian National University (ANU). </span></em></p>We’re getting faster at building renewables – but we’ll have to speed up even more to reach our 2030 target of 82% clean energyThomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2158112024-01-25T20:46:19Z2024-01-25T20:46:19ZFlying foxes pollinate forests and spread seeds. Here’s how we can make peace with our noisy neighbours<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555448/original/file-20231023-17-y6qvdg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C4031%2C2981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tolga Bat Hospital</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flying foxes. Megabats. Fruit bats. Whatever name you choose, these fox-faced creatures are remarkable. Our four species help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13143">pollinate eucalyptus trees</a> in eastern Australia, spread the seeds of rainforest trees, and make our summer skies spectacular. They’re some of the largest bats in the world. </p>
<p>The endangered spectacled flying fox (<em>Pteropus conspicillatus</em>), for instance, evolved alongside northern Queensland’s tropical rainforests in the Wet Tropics. They <a href="http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/jcu/detail.action?docID=312874">carry rainforest fruits</a> further than any other species – even cassowaries – and fly up to 100 kilometres a night. Many trees produce fresh pollen and lots of nectar at night to attract our only nocturnal pollinators. </p>
<p>Sadly, flying foxes can evoke fear and loathing. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, six species of <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/search?query=pteropus&searchType=species">flying fox</a> have already gone extinct, due to hunting and other human pressure. If Australia’s species go extinct, some of our trees may well go with them. </p>
<p>But as my <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/inc3.26">research shows</a>, we can learn to live alongside these gentle creatures of the night. Here’s how.</p>
<h2>Why are flying foxes feared?</h2>
<p>Flying foxes are considered a “<a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.13513">conflict species</a>”, alongside crocodiles, dingoes, snakes and sharks. That is, our fear of these species can push us to take lethal action against them. </p>
<p>Bats can be an easy target. Consider this headline: “23 bat attacks as warning issued”, which ran in the <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/experts-issue-safety-guide-after-23-bat-attacks-in-cairns/news-story/36deefce751690a53ca49dca0e55dc5d">Cairns Post</a> in October. The story was exaggerated – bats weren’t deliberately attacking people. They were being handled and got spooked. But headlines like this are common. </p>
<p>Our perceptions shape reality. That means it takes some work to overcome ancient fear, even if irrational, such as blood-sucking vampire bats. But there are other concerns: fear of disease or annoyance at bat poo splattering clothes on the line or falling into swimming pools. Then there’s the noise of a thousand squabbling flying foxes in a roost. </p>
<p>In the 1930s, Sir Francis Ratcliffe was contracted by the Commonwealth government to sort out “<a href="http://www.jstor.org.elibrary.jcu.edu.au/stable/993">the problem</a>” of flying foxes – essentially, culling them. This response is, sadly, common. For the past century, we have seen these large bats as pests. We drive them off or kill them <em>en masse</em>. </p>
<p>Electric wires were used to kill many spectacled flying foxes to prevent them eating lychees in the 1990s, until it became illegal. In one infamous case, 18,000 were <a href="http://envlaw.com.au/flying-fox-case/">killed at an orchard</a> south of Cairns. This killing led to a court victory, making it illegal to electrocute flying foxes. </p>
<p>Even now, killing of some species can be permitted under Queensland law, though all culls will become illegal from 2026. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-in-my-backyard-how-to-live-alongside-flying-foxes-in-urban-australia-59893">Not in my backyard? How to live alongside flying-foxes in urban Australia</a>
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<p>The spectacled flying fox is not doing well. The population <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22294-w">fell sharply</a> from around 320,000 in 2004 to only 78,000 in 2018. Another 23,000 animals died in Cairns in 2018 during an <a href="https://www.animalecologylab.org/ff-heat-stress-forecaster.html">extreme heat event</a> linked to global warming. </p>
<p>Scientists know how to help the species recover by protecting their camps and food resources, and improving the survival rates of babies. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, there is constant pressure from their human neighbours to “do something” about flying foxes in backyards and parks. This push-back makes it harder for us to help the species recover. Even now, some <a href="https://kap.org.au/project/flying-foxes/">politicians</a> want them eliminated.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="spectacled flying foxes in tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565665/original/file-20231214-27-d6iq08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Spectacled flying foxes gather in noisy social roosts – but their presence is often feared or found annoying.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cre8 design/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>So what can we do?</h2>
<p>For many years, authorities attempted to move flying fox camps away from, say, a suburb out to other areas. But dispersal techniques <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/ZO20043">rarely work</a>, cost a lot of money, and usually just move the problem to other backyards. </p>
<p>We now know there are better ways of reducing conflicts between humans and these megabats. One way is to <a href="https://doi.org/10.7882/AZ.2022.014">trim back trees</a> near the camps, removing overhanging branches so the bats do not roost over backyards. </p>
<p>If these actions don’t solve the issue, planting shrubs or erecting barrier fences as buffers between flying fox roosts and residents can help. </p>
<p>Lastly, if buffers don’t work, councils or wildlife authorities may attempt to move the camps. </p>
<p>In some areas, state governments and councils provide subsidies to cover swimming pools, pressure-clean paths, and cover crops with nets – which are still cheaper than trying to move the bats away from camps. These types of actions can go a long way towards changing public attitudes. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="grey headed flying fox drinking from pond" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565666/original/file-20231214-22-px5r3i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Showing people how remarkable these creatures are can help tackle scepticism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frank Martins/Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Of bats and disease</h2>
<p>Stories about the value of flying foxes to all of us and our natural environment can help. American conservation scientist Anne Toomey has observed how important it is for scientists to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109886">use narratives</a> to help protect species.</p>
<p>Let’s take disease. This crops up a lot. Flying foxes, like other bats, have <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/how-bats-have-outsmarted-viruses-including-coronaviruses-65-million-years">remarkable immune systems</a>. They can live perfectly happily with viruses which would lay us out for weeks – or worse. </p>
<p>This is a fact. But we often attach a narrative to it – namely, that bats are dangerous. We don’t attach the same narrative to cats, even though these beloved pets often carry <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WR20089">toxoplasmosis</a>, a protozoan parasite which can cause disease. </p>
<p>If you are not an experienced bat handler or carer, the story should be this: don’t touch bats you find. Instead, contact bat and wildlife carers such as the <a href="https://www.wires.org.au/">Wildlife Rescue Service</a> or, if you’re in Far North Queensland, places like the <a href="https://tolgabathospital.org/">Tolga Bat Hospital</a>.</p>
<p>Fear of bats intensified 12 years ago, when the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coviro.2016.02.004">Hendra virus</a> infected and killed several vets treating horses with the virus. While bats can carry the virus, they cannot transmit it directly to humans. And better still, we now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100207">have a vaccine</a> preventing Hendra virus in horses.</p>
<p>Avoiding other pathogens such as Australian bat lyssavirus is easy – people who have to handle bats <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cdna-song-abvl-rabies.htm">get vaccinated</a> against lyssavirus. Wearing protective equipment such as gloves also prevents transmission of diseases. </p>
<p>If we know more about the importance of these majestic night-fliers – and if we find better ways of reducing human-wildlife conflicts – we can still save these creatures. After all, their biggest threat is us. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-laws-failed-these-endangered-flying-foxes-at-every-turn-on-saturday-cairns-council-will-put-another-nail-in-the-coffin-141116">Our laws failed these endangered flying-foxes at every turn. On Saturday, Cairns council will put another nail in the coffin</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noel D. Preece is lead scientist for the national recovery team for the endangered spectacled flying fox, and a non-executive director of Terrain NRM Ltd. He is also a director of a specialist environmental consulting firm, Biome5 Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>If a colony of flying foxes sets up in your backyard, you might be annoyed – or concerned. But these gentle bats are vital to our forests.Noel D. Preece, Adjunct Asssociate Professor, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176062024-01-09T14:03:52Z2024-01-09T14:03:52ZGhana’s electricity crisis is holding the country back - how it got here<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567865/original/file-20240104-21-yyooez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Akosombo Dam is an important source of power in Ghana.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jbdodane/10021680456">jbdodane/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For well over a decade Ghana was exalted as one of the most promising and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/ghana-is-set-to-be-the-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-this-year-according-to-the-imf/">fastest growing</a> economies on the continent. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/africa/ghana-plunged-into-darkness-amid-country-economic-woes/index.html">recent reports</a> of the country’s steep <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2023/ghanas-second-quarter-economic-growth-dips-vs-revised-first-quarter/">economic dip</a>, high <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-11/ghana-inflation-hits-record-54-1-as-food-costs-surge">inflation</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67236078">rolling blackouts</a>, popularly referred to as “dumsor”, suggest the era of inconsistent electricity between 2012 and 2016 is back. </p>
<p>The west African nation is experiencing power rationing and electricity cuts. It has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67236078">lost 10%</a> of its total electricity generation capacity. Not only is the supply of clean energy insufficient in Ghana: access is also uneven. The rural poor rely on other forms of energy such as firewood or biomass to meet their needs. Biomass accounts for over <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666052022000152">46%</a> of energy use in Ghana’s rural areas. </p>
<p>The correlation between energy, economic growth and development is widely recognised. The ability of energy to power economies is also well known. </p>
<p>The gaps in electricity delivery in a nation typically lauded for its economic success and political stability are at odds with energy abundance that I note in <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-60122-9">my book</a> on Ghana’s energy politics. </p>
<p>This latest crisis could upend Ghana’s previously notable economic gains. </p>
<p>The current energy paralysis is particularly worrying for two reasons. Ghana is frequently touted as a hub for foreign investment and tourism. Neither of these can flourish without energy. Secondly, it could prompt Ghanaians to leave the country and discourage people in the diaspora from returning. </p>
<h2>Some history</h2>
<p>Understanding Ghana’s electricity conundrum requires a look at past policies. In less than a decade following independence in 1957, the country could boast of having one of the continent’s largest dams and hydroelectric projects, the Akosombo and Volta River Project. </p>
<p>Political upheaval in the following decades destroyed the vision of progress. A rapid succession of regimes and the ravages of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s and 1990s challenged the ability of Ghana to clean up decrepit energy institutions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-to-be-learnt-from-ghanas-excess-electricity-shambles-121257">Lessons to be learnt from Ghana's excess electricity shambles</a>
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<p>Poor energy supply and demand chain dynamics or forecasting produced deeply disparate outcomes. Energy institutions did not adequately capture heightened demand in urban and rural areas. This happened amid international financial institutional pressure to liberalise the energy sector as a condition for support. Utility sector reform inadvertently made it harder to supply energy to those who needed it the most. Added to this were insufficient funds and budgetary constraints which limited generation and transmission capacity. </p>
<h2>Energy capacity</h2>
<p>In 2019, an International Energy Association <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/ghana-energy-outlook">report</a> noted that half of Ghana’s electricity came from hydropower, 30% from domestically produced gas and 23% from oil. </p>
<p>Ghana’s hydro-wealth includes an installed capacity of 1,580 megawatts of energy from three dams: Akosombo, Kpong and Bui, which account for roughly 54% of its total electricity generating capacity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-bui-dam-set-up-chinas-future-engagement-strategy-with-ghana-164970">How the Bui Dam set up China's future engagement strategy with Ghana</a>
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<p>The completion of the Bui Dam by Chinese contractors <a href="https://www.water-technology.net/projects/bui-dam-hydro-power-ghana/">in 2013</a> was intended to offset poor access. Additional thermal plants constructed since 2017 should have improved disparities in electricity delivery. <a href="https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/hd/about/facilities/thermal-e.html">Thermal plants</a> draw from steam power that is generated by burning oil, liquid natural gas and coal.</p>
<h2>The rural poor</h2>
<p>But <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-60122-9">less than 60% of the population</a> has access to electricity. This energy poverty has been acute since the 1990s. It’s especially alarming for a country that boasts a resource of <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/15-Billion-Barrels-Of-Oil-Discovered-Offshore-Ghana.html">a billion barrels of offshore oil</a>. </p>
<p>The connections between rural development and electrification were noted in a Ministry of Energy <a href="https://www.greenpolicyplatform.org/sites/default/files/downloads/policy-database/GHANA%20%20National%20Energy%20Policy.pdf">report</a> over a decade ago.</p>
<p>In my view, the use of electricity as a tool for political parties is incompatible with addressing provision to the rural poor. Around <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1245342/number-of-people-living-in-extreme-poverty-in-ghana-by-area/#:%7E:text=In%202023%2C%20around%202.99%20million,were%20located%20in%20urban%20areas.">2.99 million people</a> in Ghana live in extreme poverty, the majority in rural areas. </p>
<p>The country’s energy “futures” appear tethered to donor-driven aid and investment. The political wherewithal or impetus to develop a framework that meets differing energy needs remains absent, as I demonstrate in my work. </p>
<h2>Other implications</h2>
<p>Ghanaians and international observers are asking what is to be done. Regional power sharing arrangements like the <a href="https://www.ecowapp.org/en/content/creation-wapp">West Africa Power Pool</a>, intended to boost long term energy security, have yielded little thus far. </p>
<p>In my view, a key step is to ask what kind of sustainable energy future the country wants.</p>
<p>Calling for donor-led and international financial assistance is not the answer. It is time to change expectations about grid connection, the preferred way of electricity delivery in Ghana, as previous <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629619300647?casa_token=kh1WaQ8Tbq0AAAAA:Bp4xLAyaOjH1s-m8te2e9gG7i1rxa00vTHO1c2u5B4SASGLYy3EVbhLIpegNPmNAz-fj6VaEPQk">studies have shown</a>. </p>
<p>For Ghana, harnessing renewable energies that are sustainable, dependable and affordable, especially for the rural poor, is a key step. </p>
<p>Another strategy is to encourage public dialogue about the country’s energy futures.</p>
<p>Ghana must deploy a just and inclusive energy framework that attends to its rural populations just as much as its urbanites.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217606/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naaborle Sackeyfio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ghana’s power generation mix is still not meeting national needs.Naaborle Sackeyfio, Associate Professor of Global and Intercultural Studies, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.