tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/japan-elections-44065/articlesJapan elections – The Conversation2017-10-01T22:38:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/849662017-10-01T22:38:23Z2017-10-01T22:38:23ZShinzo Abe gambles on sending Japan to a snap election – but it may yet backfire<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188276/original/file-20171001-21580-19dn3lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Toru Hanai</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/abe-s-opponents-rally-around-tokyo-governor-ahead-of-japan-vote">dissolved the lower house</a> of the national parliament, the Diet, on September 28, with an election to be held on October 22. Called more than 12 months earlier than needed, the snap poll was a calculated gamble by the leader of the conservative LDP to strengthen his hand. </p>
<p>But within days of making the decision, what had seemed like an easy win for the veteran leader looked like a much riskier proposition. Not only might Abe fail to get the national mandate he needs to take on some risky reforms, he may well end up being fatally weakened by a new populist force led by the charismatic governor of Tokyo, Yoriko Koike.</p>
<p>Since being returned as prime minister in 2012, Abe has become the dominant politician of his generation. In going to the electorate early, he is seeking support for his desire to throw off the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/law/help/japan-constitution/article9.php">constitutional constraints</a> on Japan’s military. If he were to succeed, he would become the most significant political figure in the country’s post-war history.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/03/06/commentary/japan-commentary/japans-military-normalization/#.Wc7WnLHwfVo">long-held ambition</a> to allow Japan to play a military role in line with its economic scale was a key reason for going to the voters.</p>
<p>Even though Abe has been highly successful in national elections, he has recently been plagued by a number of scandals relating to favours he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/25/scandals-threaten-japanese-prime-minister-shinzo-abes-grip-on-power">is alleged to have</a> given to several conservative school operators. Abe’s return from the political wilderness was made possible because of the promise he made to reform and re-energise Japan’s sclerotic economy. </p>
<p>Yet after half a decade in power, he has failed to deliver on much-needed structural changes in the economy. From liberalising trade restrictions to improving female participation in the workforce – Japan has amongst the lowest in the OECD – much was expected from Abe. But he has largely failed to deliver.</p>
<p>Scandal, plus underwhelming economic reform, has seen his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japanese-prime-ministers-poll-numbers-are-so-low-they-make-trumps-look-good/2017/07/27/481356e8-728c-11e7-803f-a6c989606ac7_story.html">opinion polls plunge</a> to what some commentators described as entering the “death zone” in July. </p>
<p>In August he reshuffled his cabinet to try to cauterise the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-politics-idUSKBN1AK11V">effects of the school scandals</a>. With North Korea’s provocative behaviour playing into his hands as a security hawk, he sensed a moment to break the momentum of negative polling. Going to the electorate is an effort to put the problems definitively behind him.</p>
<p>Finally, in what is perhaps the most opportunistic of his motives, Abe is aiming to <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/04/26/editorials/democratic-party-disarray/#.Wc4eUbHwfVo">capitalise on disarray</a> in the opposition. The Democratic Party suffers from internal division, weak leadership and a lack of clarity about what it stands for. Sensing that even disillusioned voters had nowhere else to turn, Abe felt that now was the moment to strike.</p>
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<span class="caption">The charismatic Tokyo governor Yoriko Koike, leader of the new Party of Hope, is threatening the long reign of Shinzo Abe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Issei Kato</span></span>
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<p>But as 2016 should have reminded him, politics retains its capacity to surprise. Within hours of signalling his intent to go to the polls early, Koike entered the fray. Realising that voters were genuinely dissatisfied both with Abe’s LDP and the opposition, she <a href="http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003969176">swiftly established a new political party</a>. </p>
<p>As each day has gone by, she has struck deals with minor parties, prefectural governors and <a href="http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003969176">even the Democratic Party</a> to coordinate policies and candidates to forge a national anti-Abe coalition. </p>
<p>Koike’s new party, Kibo no To (Party of Hope), is a conservative populist movement that reflects the anti-establishment zeitgeist of advanced industrial democracies. Kibo no To sits outside the party mainstream and presents itself as a new force capable to making real change to a stagnant political system.</p>
<p>Centred around <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Meet-Yuriko-Koike-Tokyo-governor-leader-of-new-Party-of-Hope">Koike</a>, a former journalist, LDP defence minister and incumbent governor of Tokyo, the new party wants to remake Japanese politics by decentralising power, advancing security reform, eliminating nuclear power and increasing female empowerment.</p>
<p>The sudden creation of the new party, the speed with which it has gathered supporters and its leader’s talent with the media, have caught Abe and the LDP flat-footed. With a more credible opposition, there is now a risk voters will punish the party that approaches the electorate too cynically. </p>
<p>This sense has been underlined by ongoing tensions in the Korean Peninsula, the management of which many argue should be a higher priority for Abe than trying to take advantage of a weakened opposition.</p>
<p>While the election campaign is compressed, the outcome on October 22 is far from certain. Abe suddenly seems less impressive and the new political force is surging. But the broad coalition that Koike is trying to create may prove illusory.</p>
<p>North Korea’s behaviour could coax voters back to Abe, and the LDP’s impressive electoral machine has a strong chance of delivering the mandate he seeks. But this would be the exception to the pattern industrial democracies, where outsiders promising change have bested establishment figures. Abe, the grandson of a prime minister and among the country’s longest-serving leaders is nothing if not establishment. </p>
<p>Whatever happens, given that the vote occurs halfway through China’s 19th national party congress, October will be a fascinating month in Northeast Asia’s complex political landscape. Much will turn on the outcomes of both electoral jamborees.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<h4 class="border">Disclosure</h4><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Bisley is Executive Director of La Trobe Asia, a member of the Australian Institute for International Affairs' National Executive and a Board member of China Matters. All of these entities receive funding from Australia's federal government.</span></em></p>Having called a snap election for October 22, Japanese Prime Minister now faces a tough battle against a charisimatic new-comer in Yoriko Koike.Nick Bisley, Executive Director of La Trobe Asia and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/353662014-12-15T00:44:55Z2014-12-15T00:44:55ZAbe’s early election gambit pays off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67170/original/image-20141214-6033-1pos6pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shinzo Abe's decisive win at the weekend's Japanese election has given his LDP a mandate for sweeping reform.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Kimimasa Mayama</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As widely expected, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has led his conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a <a href="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20141215_07.html">landslide victory</a> in the country’s snap election. The LDP holds a 291-seat majority in the 475-seat lower house of Japan’s parliament, the Diet, after Sunday’s vote. </p>
<p>With the support of its coalition partner the Komeito Party (KP), which won 35 seats, Abe’s government now enjoys a two-thirds supermajority of 326 seats. This will allow the government to amend the Japanese constitution. But Abe’s success was mainly due to the unpreparedness and general disarray of the opposition parties rather than any great enthusiasm for the LDP, which effectively won by default.</p>
<h2>Splintered opposition parties</h2>
<p>The LDP was aided by a record low voter turnout of only 52.63%. The short, low-key official campaign of only two weeks also enabled the LDP to evade proper scrutiny of its policies and performance. </p>
<p>The widespread apathy of the Japanese electorate has become deeply entrenched. Many <a href="http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20141215p2a00m0na007000c.html">felt</a> that this early election was completely unnecessary. The LDP won easily despite the economy having <a href="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/onbusiness/2014111701.html">fallen into recession</a>, with real wages in declining.</p>
<p>With a shrinking power base and a dire financial situation, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), could not even afford to run candidates in enough seats to even secure a simple majority in its own right. Despite increasing its number of seats to 73, the DPJ is still a long way from ever returning to government. </p>
<p>The Japanese Communist Party more than doubled its seats to 21, continuing its role as a dissident voice in Japanese politics. However, other minor parties lost support. The populist Japan Innovation Party won 41 seats; the Party for Future Generations, the Social Democratic Party and People’s Life Party only won two seats each; and independents won 18 seats.</p>
<p>All told, the election left Japan’s political opposition as <a href="http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201412150006">splintered and isolated</a> as ever.</p>
<h2>Economic reform</h2>
<p>The election was promoted by Abe as a referendum on his economic policies, popularly termed “Abenomics”. Abe has pledged to delay another raise of the consumption tax until 2017 after the last increase from 5% to 8% in April blunted consumption and tipped the economy into recession. </p>
<p>Abe is likely to continue the core policies of Abenomics: the Bank of Japan’s massive quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus spending. But there is <a href="http://ajw.asahi.com/article/business/AJ201412020045">speculation</a> that Abe will continue to delay the more complex and wide-ranging “third arrow” of proposed structural reforms, putting off the difficult and unpopular tasks of deregulating the energy, agriculture, health, insurance and finance sectors, and cutting welfare. </p>
<p>The LDP aim to restore the budget to surplus by 2021, but little detail on how it will achieve this was given in the campaign. Abe has <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21635693-interview-japans-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-talks-economist">said</a> he will push for the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations, and he is also determined to restart Japan’s nuclear reactors despite public opposition. Japan will also restructure and continue its “scientific whaling” program.</p>
<h2>Implications at home and abroad</h2>
<p>With a supermajority in the Diet, Abe will be able to pursue his treasured goal of <a href="http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001785698">reinterpreting the constitution</a> to allow Japan to participate in “collective self-defence” with its allies. </p>
<p>The Abe government is also likely to continue to increase defence spending and begin arms exports, which potentially includes submarines being <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-27/mayfield-this-is-one-manufacturing-industry-we-must-protect/5919872">sold to Australia</a>. The LDP also wishes to press ahead with the drawn-out <a href="http://japanfocus.org/-Gavan-McCormack/4233">relocation of US bases</a> on Okinawa. This is despite widespread protests from locals who desire the total removal of the American military presence. The LDP <a href="http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20141215p2a00m0na005000c.html">lost</a> all four of its Okinawan seats: its only regional setback.</p>
<p>The LDP can now also continue to implement its “state secrets” law. This law, which is already in effect, has harsh penalties of imprisonment for public servants and journalists (and academics) who reveal or criticise classified government information. This law compounds <a href="http://japanfocus.org/events/view/233">rising fears</a> by lawyers and civil libertarians that the LDP is steadily encroaching on overall freedom of expression, subtly pressuring the media to support a government-friendly perspective. </p>
<p>Following the APEC and G20 summits this year, Abe expressed hopes of improved relations with China and South Korea. But these efforts at reconciliation have been <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/12/11/japan-s-nasty-nazi-ish-elections.html?via=desktop&source=twitter">undermined</a> by a number of LDP Diet members who have continued to downplay Japan’s historical record of atrocities in the Second World War.</p>
<p>Abe’s decisive win entrenches his hold on the LDP leadership. It also secures his government’s position through to the next lower house election, which is now due in 2018. This puts him on course to be the longest-serving Japanese prime minister since the 1970s. </p>
<p>The challenge now for Abe will be whether a reboot of Abenomics can see Japan’s economy recover despite being <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/Events/2014/12/03%20japan%20silver%20democracy/leonard%20schoppa%20presentation.pdf">confronted</a> with ongoing deflationary stagnation and long-term population decline. Weak consumption has been further hurt by the rising cost of imports. The yen <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-japan-election-yencollapse-idUSKBN0JO2A820141210?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563">continues to decline</a>, having fallen 30% against the US dollar since 2012. Japan’s public debt is now 245% of GDP, and will continue growing until a budget surplus is finally achieved. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, Abe is now in an unimpeded position to further unsheath his “fourth arrow” of revitalised Japanese nationalism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As widely expected, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has led his conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a landslide victory in the country’s snap election. The LDP holds a 291-seat majority in…Craig Mark, Associate Professor of International Studies, Kwansei Gakuin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/344012014-11-18T23:15:44Z2014-11-18T23:15:44ZAbe takes a high-stakes gamble in calling an early election in Japan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/64912/original/dgmfdfzp-1416346196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is presenting a snap election as a referendum on his once-lauded policy of 'Abenomics'.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Franck Robichon</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It may seem politically counter-intuitive for a prime minister to seek an early election just when the economy has gone into recession. But following his return to Japan from the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Brisbane, Shinzo Abe has done just that. </p>
<p>Although an election is not required until late 2016, Abe has <a href="http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20141118p2g00m0dm054000c.html">called a snap election</a> for the Lower House of the Diet only halfway through his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government’s first term. The Diet will be dissolved on November 21; the election campaign proper will start December 2; the election will be held on December 14. </p>
<p>Since being elected in December 2012, the LDP and its coalition partner, the Komeito Party (KP), have held a <a href="http://www.shugiin.go.jp/internet/itdb_english.nsf/html/statics/english/strength.htm">comfortable majority</a> of 325 seats in the 480-member lower house.</p>
<h2>Economic issues</h2>
<p>Japan’s economy <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30077122">slumped 7.3%</a> in the quarter after the consumption tax was raised from 5% to 8% in April. This was an attempt to begin to claw back Japan’s public debt, which is among the developed world’s highest at around <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp">220% of GDP</a>. Growth continued to decline by 1.6% in the July-September quarter. This <a href="https://fortune.com/2014/11/17/japan-skids-back-into-recession-in-3q/">surprised economists</a>, who were projecting a recovery for the quarter of least 2.1%.</p>
<p>Abe’s cabinet was due to decide whether to proceed with a further increase in the consumption tax to 10% from next October. Abe will now <a href="http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20141118_40.html">seek a mandate</a> to delay the raise until April 2017.</p>
<p>However, an election is not required for this. The opposition parties generally do not favour the increase, so any required amending legislation for a delay would easily pass the Diet. The consumption tax delay is therefore being used rather artificially as a pretext to call the early election, and thus act as a political circuit-breaker for the LDP before the economy deteriorates further.</p>
<p>The Diet is expected to approve a supplementary budget before it is dissolved. This budget is aimed at providing stimulus spending of more than two billion yen, particularly directed towards rural and regional areas, whose ageing and shrinking populations are already <a href="http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001726492">facing stagnation</a>. </p>
<p>Also, the yen weakening to a seven-year low has raised the cost of imports, adding to the burden on consumers. It has also raised the energy costs for businesses. The softer yen has yet to produce a reduction in a record series of trade deficits, although Japan’s stock market recently reached a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/12/markets-global-idUSL3N0T203A20141112">seven-year peak</a>.</p>
<h2>The political scene</h2>
<p>Abe’s cabinet has suffered a recent decline in its approval ratings to its <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-japan-politics-poll-idUSKCN0IU13A20141110">lowest point of 44%</a>. This came in the wake of two ministerial resignations in October due to electoral funding scandals. </p>
<p>Despite this, the main tactical motivation for the timing of Abe’s decision is to take advantage of a weak and divided opposition. The main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), remains far behind in <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/12/us-japan-politics-election-idUSKCN0IV28D20141112">recent opinion polls</a> at 7.9%. This compares to 36.6% support for the LDP, which will be hoping voters still regard the DPJ as unfit to return to office. The DPJ presided over a politically inept period of government from 2009 to 2012 under a rotating series of prime ministers.</p>
<p>Japan’s political spectrum is further splintered by a bewildering range of shifting and reforming parties, which endure even lower levels of public support. These include the Japanese Communist Party; the nationalist Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which this year suffered a defection of ultra-conservative members who formed the Party for Future Generations; the populist People’s Life Party (PLP); the neoliberal Your Party (YP), which is facing a potential split; and the progressive Social Democratic Party (SDP). Many independent candidates are also expected to contest the election.</p>
<p>The generally high level of political apathy among the Japanese electorate – around 40% of those polled express no support for any party – and voter turnout in recent elections of <a href="http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?id=114">around 60%</a> have also usually been an advantage for incumbent LDP governments.</p>
<p>An election victory – even one with a reduced majority – would allow the LDP to continue its plans to pass a controversial <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30093827">range of legislation</a>. This includes restarting nuclear reactors and reinterpreting the constitution to allow participation in “collective self-defence” operations with allied countries, potentially including Australia. This would incorporate a further easing of restrictions on defence exports, which would allow the future sale of submarines <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Japan-US-move-toward-joint-submarine-development-with-Australia">to Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Japan is also likely to continue to participate in finalising negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership despite opposition from the farmers’ lobby.</p>
<p>These unpopular issues could prove problematic for the LDP in the campaign – but only if the opposition parties manage to become competent enough to capitalise on them. The DPJ has <a href="http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001715963">held talks</a> with the YP, JIP, SDP and PLP to potentially form a coalition against the LDP, but any such alliance is likely to prove too unwieldy and ideologically fractious to pose any serious threat to the LDP-KP coalition.</p>
<p>Abe is therefore likely to prevail, extend the term of his government to 2018 and consolidate his leadership among the various factions of the LDP. He is presenting the election as a referendum on his once-lauded policy of <a href="https://theconversation.com/abenomics-a-fix-for-japans-ailing-economy-and-a-boost-for-australia-12487">“Abenomics”</a>, centred on a combination of fiscal stimulus, extensive quantitative easing and monetary expansion. Structural reform, however, has so far proved more elusive. </p>
<p>Abe claims to be determined to finally break Japan’s economy out of its decades-long deflationary slump. However, with Japan sinking back into its fourth recession since 2008, the gloss of Abenomics has definitely worn off. That makes this election a risky call.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It may seem politically counter-intuitive for a prime minister to seek an early election just when the economy has gone into recession. But following his return to Japan from the G20 Leaders’ Summit in…Craig Mark, Associate Professor of International Studies, Kwansei Gakuin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343942014-11-18T18:29:48Z2014-11-18T18:29:48ZJapan’s snap election is about more than just Abenomics<p>The decision by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30092633">call a snap election</a> barely two years into a four-year term demonstrates a degree of political flexibility other world leaders can only envy. </p>
<p>Abe did not need to go to the polls until 2016. Instead, he announced on November 18 he would dissolve the lower house of the Japanese Diet a few days later and hold a general election on December 14 2014. There are several reasons behind the decision, including the failure of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/abenomics">Abenomics</a> to revive the Japanese economy.</p>
<p>Abenomics is the neologism given to his three-pronged strategy to revitalise Japan’s economy, following the victory of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the December 2012 general election. It aims to say sayonara to deflation and slow economic growth through fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reform. But the increase in the consumption tax <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/04/japan-s-consumption-tax-hike">from 5% to 8% in April 2014</a> contributed to a contraction in the country’s GDP of 1.6% in the third quarter after a whopping 7.3% contraction in the second quarter, putting the economy technically in a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30076942">recession</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, the prime minister has decided to delay until April 2017 another increase in the consumption tax to 10% scheduled for October 2014, and seek a mandate for the continuation of Abenomics. For the leader of the opposition, Japan Restoration Party, the dissolution of the lower house symbolises the failure of the government’s tax increase.</p>
<h2>More than economics</h2>
<p>But economics is not the only reason for the prime minister’s decision. While the underlying motivation for calling the election is no doubt the expectation that Japan’s economic fortunes will not revive soon, giving the LDP a better chance of claiming victory now than in the future, the overall political situation makes winning a new mandate much easier. </p>
<p>Although his popularity has started to fall, postponing the increase in the consumption tax will be welcomed by a large number of voters. Besides, the opposition parties are unlikely to be able to take advantage of any downturn in support and form an alternative government to the LDP, whether Abe is again in coalition with his junior partner, the Komei Party, or makes some other political arrangement. </p>
<p>When Abe took office for the second time in 2012, he brought to an end the Democratic Party of Japan’s three years in power – they <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/12/japans-election">crashed from 230 to 57 seats</a>. No-one expects a revival of the party’s fortunes this time around. A number of other parties have been splintering and the potential for more change cannot be ruled out. In short, the opposition’s disarray plays into the prime minister’s hands.</p>
<h2>The division of public opinion</h2>
<p>Still, this does not mean Abe’s policies have gained all-round support, with a number of issues dividing public opinion, especially with regard to security. Significantly, the prime minister has introduced a <a href="https://theconversation.com/abes-australia-visit-comes-in-the-wake-of-constitutional-controversy-28719">re-interpretation of the Japanese constitution</a> to permit the Japanese Self-Defence Forces to participate in collective self-defence. This is part of a strategy to promote Japan’s international role, but most importantly signals a deepening and widening of defence cooperation with its ally, the United States. </p>
<p>While the prime minister was ultimately unable to revise the constitution as a result of the opposition as well as public opinion (which shows its strength and opposition to constrain the government’s security policy), collective self-defence has increased tension with some of Japan’s neighbours, especially China and the two Koreas. </p>
<p>But tensions are domestic as well as international. In particular, its alliance with the US is premised on Japan providing bases for the military. These are the source of a great deal of tension, particularly in the parts of the country where the majority are located, namely <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-now-uncle-sams-keystone-of-the-pacific-learn-from-okinawa-11041">Okinawa</a>. The government’s attempts to relocate an important base on the island has put it on a collision course with the prefecture. And, the LDP’s candidate lost in a key mayoral election earlier this year and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30074445">gubernatorial election</a> that took place just before Abe’s snap announcement, which doesn’t bode well for things to come.</p>
<p>How the conflict over the base relocation in Okinawa is dealt with by the new administration is just as much a part of Japanese democracy as is the forthcoming national election. Its character will help to be determined by the new government’s response to the local calls for a more equitable distribution of the bases, whoever wins power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn D. Hook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The decision by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to call a snap election barely two years into a four-year term demonstrates a degree of political flexibility other world leaders can only envy. Abe…Glenn D. Hook, Professor of Japanese Politics and International Relations, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.