tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/makhosi-khoza-40077/articlesMakhosi Khoza – The Conversation2017-08-13T08:32:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/823882017-08-13T08:32:41Z2017-08-13T08:32:41ZZuma won, but the ANC will never be a united party again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181778/original/file-20170811-1192-1dhctmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of South African President Jacob Zuma celebrate his triumph in the no confidence vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To say there is victory in defeat sounds like a contradiction in terms. But, this is exactly what happened when South Africa’s opposition parties failed to remove President Jacob Zuma through a motion of no confidence.</p>
<p>When National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete announced the <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/08/08/zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote">results</a> - 177 “Yes” against 198 “No” - ANC parliamentarians broke into song. But were they really the winners? </p>
<p>I don’t believe so. But to understand the party’s real defeat we need to go beyond the song.</p>
<p>A day before the vote the ANC was thrown into disarray by the speaker’s decision to <a href="http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2017/08/08/this-is-not-setting-a-precedent---speaker-mbete-on-zuma-secret-ballot">give MPs the right to a secret ballot</a>, something the party had vehemently <a href="http://www.enca.com/coverage/zumas-secret-ballot-test">opposed</a>.</p>
<p>Mindful of rebellious members within the ranks of its own parliamentary caucus – such as <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-07-19-pravin-gordhan-makhosi-khoza-pull-no-punches-on-zuma/">Makhosi Khoza, Pravin Gordhan</a>, <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2016-11-28-fellow-ministers-back-hanekom-as-anc-meeting-on-zuma-continues/">Derek Hanekom</a> – the ANC didn’t know <a href="https://theconversation.com/opposition-parties-have-found-the-ancs-achilles-heel-jacob-zuma-82322">how many more silent rebels</a> it harboured in parliament. </p>
<p>The evening of August 7, the day before the vote, will be remembered as the night of telephonic bombardment as ANC MPs got panicky calls from both their party and opposition parties. After each call, the dilemma they faced was: “Do I listen to my conscience, or ignore it?”</p>
<p>The human soul expresses itself through people’s faces. A smile tells us that the soul is brimming with good nourishment. A grimace suggests a troubled person. Before 2pm on August 8, the starting time for the debate on the motion of no confidence, the tormented state of the souls of both ANC and opposition party leaders was masked by a deliberate effort to feign confidence – even though no one was certain of victory. For a few hours there was a disconnect between the soul and the face.</p>
<p>The rest is history. Zuma remains in office – for now. How, then, could this be interpreted as a victory for opposition parties when they were clearly trounced? </p>
<p>It is victory because they succeeded in proving to the ANC that party bosses in <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/contacts">Luthuli House</a>, the ANC’s headquarters in Johannesburg, have lost control of a number of their MPs. It’s true that the ANC was divided before August the 8th. But, despite the subsequent singing, the injuries it suffered in the no confidence vote are now impossible to conceal.</p>
<h2>The unravelling of the ANC</h2>
<p>ANC bosses and parliamentarians no longer trust each other. Given the secrecy of the ballot, it’s impossible to sniff out all the rebels and flush them out of Parliament. It is like living with the knowledge that a dangerous snake lurks somewhere in your own house.</p>
<p>It is also a strong possibility that those who voted with the opposition enjoy the support of some party leaders. Given the fractiousness of the ANC, the party cannot embark on a united witch hunt against rebels in Parliament because the rebels are clearly part of an anti-Zuma campaign. It can therefore be assumed that most of them support Cyril Ramaphosa, not Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – the two frontrunner contenders for the presidency of both the ANC and the country – as the successor to Zuma. It would be self defeating for Ramaphosa to hunt them down. They are his underground troops.</p>
<p>Four months before the ANC’s <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/54th-national-conference">national elective conference</a> there is no time for the party to waste in complicated disciplinary hearings. In any event its factions are more interested in securing their own victory than chasing down those who voted in favour of the no confidence motion.</p>
<p>Before the vote the party could sell the propaganda that the problem was Zuma, not the ANC. By voting to keep him in the job, the party has now made it plain that the problem is the whole ANC, not just Zuma.</p>
<p>The bitter attitude of ANC leaders who spoke inside and outside Parliament before and after the vote added fuel to growing public anger at the arrogance of ANC power. The most shocking statement came from the ANC Women’s League president – and staunch Zuma supporter – Bathabile Dlamini who told reporters that she hadn’t voted with her conscience because her conscience had not <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1604598/bathabile-dlamini-says-her-conscience-didnt-put-her-in-government/">“sent her to parliament”</a>.</p>
<p>And South Africans are very angry – in taxi ranks, in churches, at funerals and in shebeens across the country. They cannot believe what has happened to the ANC of Nelson Mandela. When asked what to do, people say, “2019 is coming” – a reference to the country’s next national elections. Increasingly South Africans seem to be gaining a deeper appreciation of the power of the vote. The 2016 municipal elections, which saw the ANC <a href="https://theconversation.com/sharp-tongued-south-african-voters-give-ruling-anc-a-stiff-rebuke-63606">lose three metropolitan councils</a>, were a turning point.</p>
<h2>Who’ll save the party?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/watch-zuma-sing-along-endorsing-ndz-campaign">Should Dlamini-Zuma</a>, Zuma’s anointed successor, win in December, the ANC shouldn’t be surprised by the punishment meted out to them at the polls. She will be rejected overwhelmingly by citizens who are sick and tired of Zuma and the Guptas, his friends and architects of <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">state capture.</a></p>
<p>Even Ramaphosa, her main competitor for the presidency of both the ANC and the country, will have no smooth ride to power. Indications are that, should he win, the ANC may lose voters in KwaZulu-Natal. There the Inkatha Freedom Party – which is firmly and unabashedly tribalist in its Zulu stronghold – is <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/ifp-wins-nquthu-by-election-20170525">once again gaining groud</a>. Even though South Africans don’t like admitting it, tribal consciousness is a feature of the country’s politics.</p>
<p>Should Ramaphosa succeed Zuma, he will have to do a great deal of explaining. Where was he, and what did he do, when Zuma and the Guptas were looting public resources? Why did he continue to support a discredited president? Zuma will haunt Ramaphosa like a ghost.</p>
<p>It doesn’t matter who takes over the ANC in December. The party will never be a united party again. After the vote of no confidence, the party is seriously injured. It will limp all the way to the 2019 elections. Such is the contradictory victory scored by the ANC on August 8.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82388/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prince Mashele does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The bitter attitude of ANC leaders who spoke inside and outside Parliament before and after the no confidence vote added fuel to already existing public anger at the arrogance of the governing party.Prince Mashele, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822732017-08-09T14:12:33Z2017-08-09T14:12:33ZWar of attrition against South Africa’s President ‘Zupta’ is in full swing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181514/original/file-20170809-23494-13lwmyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters march ahead of a vote of a no confidence against President Jacob Zuma. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first big surprise was that <a href="http://www.gov.za/about-government/leaders/profile/1044">Baleka Mbete</a>, the speaker of the National Assembly, ruled in favour of the opposition parties’ request for a <a href="http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2017/08/08/this-is-not-setting-a-precedent---speaker-mbete-on-zuma-secret-ballot">secret ballot</a> in the eighth vote of no confidence against the president of South Africa.</p>
<p>Writing from memory, this is the first time that this speaker’s rulings have ever gone against Luthuli House, the headquarters of the governing African National Congress <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/">(ANC)</a>, or the preference of the party’s chief whip, Jackson Mthembu. The significance is that a vote of no confidence is a three-line whip: where the caucus decision is binding on all MPs of a particular party. A secret ballot enables dissenting MPs to sidestep threats of party disciplinary action.</p>
<p>Her ruling will also recall memories that President Jacob Zuma dumped her to back <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/president-publicly-endorses-nkosazana-dlamini-zuma-for-anc-leader">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma </a> as his preferred successor. In short Mbete apparently perceives her career, as chairperson of the ANC, has nothing more to gain from remaining beholden to Zuma.</p>
<p>This is another interesting example of how Zuma’s power is unravelling.</p>
<p>Her ruling gave rise to intense media speculation about how many MPs from the ANC would vote with their conscience, as ANC MPs Pravin Gordhan and Makhosi Khoza <a href="https://www.africanewshub.com/news/7082087-pravin-gordhan-makhosi-khoza-pull-no-punches-on-zuma">had publicly urged</a>. The Economic Freedom Fighters and others in opposition claimed that they had a list of <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-07-21-malema-more-than-60-anc-mps-will-turn-on-zuma-if-there-is-a-secret-ballot/">60 ANC MPs</a> who would vote for the motion of no confidence. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/08/jacob-zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote-south-african-president">result</a> proved that they were kidding themselves.</p>
<p>The huge build-up in media hype made the result anti-climactic. Nonetheless, that there was only a margin of 21 to defeat the eighth no-confidence motion is unprecedented. It also shows the biggest erosion yet of Zuma’s support in the ANC caucus. At least 30 ANC MPs must have voted to remove Zuma from his presidency.</p>
<p>It’s not the parliamentary caucus, but the <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/venue-anc-54th-national-conference">ANC’s elective conference</a> which will elect Zuma’s successor in four months’ time, and its composition will be subject to fierce tussling. Still, the <a href="http://caucus.anc.org.za/">caucus</a> contains a weighty cross-section of ANC players. The shift is therefore significant in terms of the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/politics/2017-05-19-ramaphosa-vs-dlamini-zuma-the-state-of-play-in-a-graphic/">Cyril Ramaphosa versus Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a> contest to replace Zuma.</p>
<h2>The power of the party</h2>
<p>Does the vote imply that a majority of ANC MPs would vote for Dlamini-Zuma as opposed to Ramaphosa? This is not clear: many ANC MPs would agree with the <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/we-still-wont-vote-against-zuma-anc-caucus-on-secret-ballot-ruling-20170622">caucus argument</a> – you cannot vote with the opposition for an opposition motion.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://thoughtundermined.com/2013/06/30/the-westminster-system-of-parliamentary-government/">Westminster-style democracies</a> a no-confidence debate is an annual fixture in the parliamentary calendar. But for a united front of opposition parties and civil society associations like Corruption Watch to organise mass <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/jonas-march-is-about-civil-society-holding-politicians-accountable-10681095">marches and demonstrations</a> outside parliament and across the country is certainly not routine. The smaller religious groups and pro-Zuma factions of the ANC who organised demonstrations <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-08-08-live-sa-braces-for-noconfidence-marches-and-vote/">against the no-confidence motion</a> show mobilisation of their groupings as well.</p>
<p>South Africa is a Westminster-derived democracy, so this situation brings precedents to mind. While votes of no confidence have not directly removed any British Prime Minister from office, one such narrow vote did lead to Tory caucus leaders telling <a href="http://www.winstonchurchill.org/resources/reference/the-british-parliamentary-system-in-the-age-of-churchill">Neville Chamberlain to step down</a> in 1940 before he was voted out. Similarly, it was Tory leaders withdrawing their support from Margaret Thatcher which <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/22/newsid_2549000/2549189.stm">compelled her to resign</a> in 1990.</p>
<p>In South Africa, the national leadership structure of major political parties such as the ANC and main opposition Democratic Alliance dominate and control their parliamentary caucuses more than in the UK or other Commonwealth countries. Their national conferences also have greater significance.</p>
<p>In view of the media coverage, it is important to emphasise that the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/who-are-the-guptas-2080935">Gupta family conglomerate</a>, which is at the heart of <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">state capture allegations</a>, is merely the wealthiest example of networks of <a href="http://www.gov.za/tenderpreneurship-stuff-crooked-cadres-fighters">“tenderpreneurs”</a> – businessmen who enrich themselves through government tenders, often dubiously. They are found across national government, the provinces and municipalities. There are many others and the work of <a href="http://ewn.co.za/Topic/Gupta-leaks">investigative journalists</a> will no doubt uncover them. </p>
<p>But the Gupta web of influence is certainly the one that’s received the greatest attention. Malema’s coining of the name <a href="http://www.news24.com/Video/SouthAfrica/News/watch-live-malema-declares-war-on-the-gupta-family-20160204">“Zupta”</a> aptly and pithily captures the fusion of the Zuma and Gupta families, the <a href="http://www.e-ir.info/2010/01/24/to-what-extent-can-neopatrimonialism-be-considered-significant-in-contemporary-african-politics/">neo-patrimonialism</a> which sucks out public funds for private enrichment.</p>
<h2>Crumbling empire</h2>
<p>This eighth vote of no confidence shows that civil society has organised a war of attrition against both Zuma and his system of subverting the procurement mechanisms in the public sector. This push back against corruption to defend the institutions of state will continue until Zuma is no longer in office. It is pivotal. The Auditor General has already <a href="http://m.fin24.com/fin24/Economy/there-must-be-bite-at-the-end-of-an-audit-ag-20170614-2">expressed concern</a> that there haven’t been any consequences to his reporting on fraud and corruption in public sector accounts.</p>
<p>The good news is that the Gupta empire <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/backlash-over-south-africa-graft-claims-threatens-gupta-empire">seems to be crumbling</a>. For one thing they can no longer laugh all the way to the bank – in an unprecedented move in the country <a href="http://www.biznews.com/undictated/2017/07/27/bank-of-baroda-gupta-outa/">all the banks</a> have, one by one, dropped this particular lucrative corporate client.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the ANC, but writes this analysis in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The huge hype ahead of the vote of no confidence in President Zuma made the result anti-climactic. However, the fact that the motion was defeated by only a 21 vote margin is unprecedented.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/822442017-08-08T23:17:18Z2017-08-08T23:17:18ZNo confidence vote: a victory for Zuma, but a defeat for the ANC<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181472/original/file-20170808-26039-17fxqav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's President Jacob Zuma celebrates with his supporters after surviving a no-confidence motion in parliament</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Jacob Zuma is a natural born political survivor. Yesterday South Africa’s president <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/08/jacob-zuma-survives-no-confidence-vote-south-african-president">overcame</a> an eighth no confidence vote, despite the mountain of evidence of corrupt conduct that has emerged in recent months. </p>
<p>But it may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory – for him and most certainly for his party, the African National Congress (ANC). <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-08-zuma-supporters-celebrate-his-win-outa-considers-legal-action/">“Hollow”</a> was the word that one opposition leader, Bantu Holomisa, used afterwards, while the Economic Freedom Fighter’s leader Julius Malema employed a well-known Africa proverb: “When you want to eat an elephant you do it bit by bit”. </p>
<p>Zuma’s political death is proving to be a protracted affair. There was an air of expectation yesterday that recent allegations of “state capture” – attested to by a welter of evidence from the so-called <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/06/01/the-new-gupta-emails-are-a-lot-heres-what-they-say-in-5-quick_a_22120706/">#guptaleaks</a> – would be enough to persuade a sufficient number of the members of the ruling ANC to support an opposition-sponsored no confidence vote. </p>
<p>In the event, after a fractious two-hour debate scarred by ugly banter across the floor of the National Assembly, the motion fell short of the 201 votes required to remove Zuma and his cabinet. But yesterday was remarkably different. On the previous seven occasions that the opposition have tabled no confidence votes since Zuma’s power began in 2009, the ANC has remained steadfast in its support for its beleaguered president. Yesterday’s vote was a watershed for the liberation movement that brought an end to apartheid in 1994: around 30 of the 223 ANC MPs who voted yesterday sided with the opposition.</p>
<p>As the ANC’s chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, ruefully observed afterwards, this is true pause for reflection for the ruling party. Never before has such a significant number of the parliamentary caucus rebelled and defied the party whip. </p>
<p>Zuma’s streetwise political skills are well-known. So too is his adeptness at using executive patronage to secure the loyalty of party members as has been made clear in the revelations <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22513410">arising from his links to the Gupta family</a>. </p>
<h2>The secret ballot saga</h2>
<p>But the back story to the unprecedented rebellion within his own party was the method of voting as much as Zuma’s political skullduggery. For the first time, parliament was compelled to allow MPs <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-07-mbete-allows-secret-ballot/">to vote in secret</a>. This followed a <a href="http://www.702.co.za/articles/251722/bantu-holomisa-explains-parly-rules-on-secret-ballot">legal challenge</a> to the rules by Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement. </p>
<p>In its 22 June <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/">judgment</a>, the Constitutional Court – an institutional beacon of excellence and integrity in the context of the “capture” of other state bodies – had held that the speaker of the National Assembly had the discretion to order a secret ballot in exceptional circumstances. </p>
<p>Since the ruling, a number of ANC MPs have gone public with testimony of intimidation and even <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/07/12/makhosi-khoza-s-daughter-receives-death-threats">death threats</a> in the case of Makhosi Khoza. In turn, the ANC shot itself in the foot when one region of Zuma’s home province, KwaZulu-Natal, demanded that disciplinary proceedings be brought against Khoza after she had called for Zuma to go. The intervention served to underline the need to depart from the generally established principle of open voting. </p>
<p>Accordingly, speaker Baleka Mbete had little legal choice but to opt for a secret ballot, even though it would encourage dissenting voices among the ranks of the ANC caucus. Politically, she had probably done the political mathematics and, as the national chairperson of the ANC, was confident that regardless of the shield that she said was necessary to protect ANC MPs so that they could vote with their conscience, the numbers would still work out in Zuma’s favour.</p>
<p>And so it proved: 177 MPs voted for the motion, and 198 against (with 9 abstentions). Since the opposition has 151 MPs, at least three of whom were absent through illness, it means that that at least 29 and possibly as many as 35 ANC MPs jumped ship. </p>
<h2>Win-win for the opposition</h2>
<p>But it was a win-win situation for the opposition. Afterwards, in the unseasonably balmy winter’s evening outside the parliament in Cape Town, one after another of the leaders of the opposition spoke cheerfully about the political future and of the health of South Africa’s democracy. </p>
<p>They may have lost the battle, but they feel confident that they will win the war. After all, it is clear that Zuma is now their greatest electoral asset, with <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/05/31/ipsos-poll-zuma-unpopular/">several polls </a>(including the respected <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-05-19-afrobarometer-trio-of-polls-show-shifting-attitudes-but-voters-would-still-opt-for-anc/#.WYo8na17Gi4">Afrobarometer</a>), showing that across race and class, trust in Zuma has collapsed since he was returned to power for a second term in 2014. </p>
<p>Last year, the ANC suffered its first major electoral setbacks since the advent of democracy in 1994 when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-revolt-of-south-africas-metropoles-a-revolution-of-rising-expectations-64617">lost control</a> of three major city governments in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth. Now, its political management skills appear to be in disarray as factionalism and deep, painful divisions dominate internal party politics. This is all unfolding in the run-up to what is likely to be a bloody five-yearly <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/venue-anc-54th-national-conference">national elective conference</a> in December, at which the ANC will elect a new President of the party to succeed Zuma. </p>
<p>That may or may not mark the start of a new era of renewal for the ANC. But Zuma’s term as President of the country is only due to end in 2019. A lot more damage could be done to the country’s economy and its prospects for growth. </p>
<p>The consequence of that, however, is that the ANC will face the prospect of losing its majority at the national polls for the first time since Nelson Mandela’s historic victory in 1994. </p>
<p>Yesterday may have been a victory for Zuma. But in the longer term it is likely to come to be seen as a major defeat for the ANC.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is a founding partner of the political consultancy, The Paternoster Group, serves as a member of the executive committee and advisory council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, and is a member of the Board of the Open Democracy Advice Centre. </span></em></p>The political death of President Jacob Zuma is proving to be a protracted affair. Though he lives to fight another day, the ANC faces the prospect of losing its majority at the polls next year.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/820922017-08-04T12:32:20Z2017-08-04T12:32:20ZZuma no confidence vote: the ANC is the loser, whatever happens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181020/original/file-20170804-2386-1p04e9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African President Jacob Zuma with Parliament's Speaker Baleka Mbete.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s governing African National Congress has got itself into one hell of a pickle. The National Assembly is due to debate an opposition motion of <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/07/05/zuma-no-confidence-motion/">no confidence </a> in President Jacob Zuma. </p>
<p>Were the motion to succeed, Zuma and his entire cabinet would be forced under the constitution to <a href="https://theconversation.com/zumas-critics-within-the-anc-are-vocal-but-will-they-act-75587">resign</a>. The Speaker of the House would then become Acting President for up to 30 days while it goes about the business of electing a replacement, who would then serve as state president until the expiry of the present term of parliament in early 2019. </p>
<p>Yet the reality is that, save a political tsunami, the motion won’t succeed even though it’s common currency that Zuma is irredeemably corrupt and that he has <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">sold his country out</a> to the Gupta family. He has also alienated many of the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/05/24/sacp-stands-with-cosatu-on-its-zuma-banning_a_22106553/">ANC’s traditional allies</a>, and the performances of the government and the economy under his rule have become <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/business/205458-three-graphs-which-show-how-zuma-wrecked-south-africas-economy.html">increasingly shambolic</a>.</p>
<p>Key figures in the ANC have indicated that their party’s MPs should vote with the opposition. These include former President Thabo Mbeki who has proclaimed that ANC MPs should vote in the national rather than the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/mbeki-anc-mps-must-put-voters-first-8610759">party interest</a>. Similarly, the recently dismissed finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, has urged MPs to allow their consciences to dictate their votes.</p>
<p>Despite such calls, only two ANC MPs, <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-07-19-zuma-is-disgraceful-dishonourable-khoza/">Makhosi Khoza</a> and <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1589063/mondli-gungubele-refuses-to-toe-the-party-line-on-vote-of-no-confidence/">Mondli Gungubele</a>, have openly declared that they will vote with the opposition. The ANC has indicated it will subject Khoza to <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/makhosi-khoza-unfazed-and-unshaken-as-she-fights-anc-disciplinary-charges-20170801">disciplinary proceedings</a>. Gungubele may well face a <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-31-mthembu-anc-must-act-against-defiant-mp-mondli-gungubele">similar fate</a>. If the ANC follows through on its threats, both may lose their jobs (for if a party expels an MP from party membership, the MP concerned can no longer sit in parliament).</p>
<p>There are certainly other MPs sitting on the ANC benches who recognise the damage that Zuma has done. But it appears they have been held back from speaking out because of the <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/07/02/support-no-confidence-motion-in-zuma-at-own-risk-mbalula">threat of dismissal</a> from parliament and the loss of salary and status that would involve. </p>
<p>It’s for this reason that the opposition has set such store on securing a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-05-16-no-confidence-motion-secret-ballot-gains-ground-in-concourt/#.WYMg_YSGM9c">secret ballot</a> – reckoning that this will allow ANC MPs to vote in favour of the motion while circumventing the risk of party discipline.</p>
<h2>ANC’s conundrum</h2>
<p>When faced by the request of the opposition parties that she allow a secret ballot on the no confidence motion, Baleka Mbete, the Speaker of the House (and a member of the ANC’s National Executive Committee) declared that she did not have the power to grant the request under the rules of the Assembly. However, after being approached by opposition parties, the Constitutional Court subsequently ruled that a <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-22-read-in-full-concourt-ruling-on-secret-ballot/">secret ballot was permissible</a>, throwing the decision back into her lap. Mbete has yet to make public her decision.</p>
<p>In the end she sought to deflect criticism by announcing <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-08-07-mbete-allows-secret-ballot/">in favour</a> of a secret ballot – but only at the last minute. </p>
<p>But even if enough ANC MPs were to align themselves with the opposition to unseat Zuma, the ANC would remain in control of the immediate situation because it would retain its majority in the House, and it would be another ANC MP who would be elected to serve as president. </p>
<p>Yet win or lose the vote, the consequences for the ANC are dire. </p>
<h2>Options for the ANC</h2>
<p>The party faces three possible options:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The ANC wins the vote by a substantial majority, with only a handful of ANC MPs voting with the opposition. Supposedly this would be a massive victory for the ruling party, yet it will fly in the face of not just the parliamentary opposition, but a massive body of popular opinion throughout the country. The ANC would have voted to keep a deeply corrupt president in power, with probable long term disastrous electoral consequences. Any internal ANC “reform” project will be more likely to fail.</p></li>
<li><p>The ANC just scrapes home by a small majority, indicating that a substantial body of the party’s MPs have voted for Zuma to go. Cue internal party turmoil. Will the dissident MPs own up? If they do, will they face party discipline? What would happen if the dissidents were known to include party heavyweights (and potential candidates for the party leadership at the party’s national congress in December 2017) such as <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/04/24/ramaphosa-readies-for-his-anc-presidency-campaign-by-attacking-z_a_22052547/">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> and <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/lindiwe-sisulu-launches-presidential-campaign-to-cleanse-and-save-anc-20170722">Lindiwe Sisulu</a>? Subjecting them to party discipline would risk not just massive intra-party division, but a split within the party – and the further danger that they might team up with the opposition.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/181022/original/file-20170804-27415-n72zdi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1026&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa, Deputy president of South Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/GCIS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li>The ANC loses the vote, and Zuma is forced to stand down as state president. In this case, the ANC is openly divided, and all hell would break out within the party ahead of its <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/54th-national-conference">conference in December</a>. An ANC MP, probably Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, would be elected as state president, but Zuma would remain as party president. </li>
</ul>
<p>The ANC would be at war with itself, with little or no prospect of it facing the electorate in 2019 in one piece. Were the ANC to offer Zuma an amnesty from prosecution, they would face a massive public backlash. If they didn’t, they would face the very real prospect of his having to face trial, with the party’s extraordinarily dirty linen being washed in public for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Whatever happens, Zuma will work ceaselessly and ruthlessly after the debate to secure the party presidency for his former wife, (and favoured candidate) <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/president-publicly-endorses-nkosazana-dlamini-zuma-for-anc-leader">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, reckoning that in so doing, he will retain the power to shape events (and not least, to keep himself out of jail). </p>
<p>Meanwhile, those opposing Zuma will need to rapidly group behind one leader (presumably the new state president) if they are to stand a decent chance of securing enough control over the party organisation to defeat Dlamini-Zuma in December. Rivalry between the prospective anti-Zuma candidates for the party leadership (notably Ramaphosa, Lindiwe Sisulu and Mathews Phosa), would only weaken their chances of victory.</p>
<h2>Ominous future</h2>
<p>Tim Cohen, editor of Business Day, has indicated, sagely, that the Zuma presidency has begun to wind down as the <a href="http://amabhungane.co.za/article/2017-07-22-gupta-leakscom-everything-you-ever-need-to-know-about-guptaleaks-in-one-place">#Gupta Leaks</a> – the series of emails detailing the extent of the Gupta family’s control of the state – reveal more and more dirt. More and more ANC rats will desert the sinking ship and seek safety on a new (anti-Zuma) ANC vessel.</p>
<p>Yet even if the anti-Zuma campaign was to gain enough momentum for victory in December, it will come at massive cost. Not the least of these dangers is that the already alarmingly high rate of <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/shooting-of-anc-councillors-in-kzn-could-plunge-municipality-into-chaos-mec-20170714">intra-party killing of rivals</a> will increase.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to imagine that the ANC will be in any reasonable shape to face the electorate in 2019. Although ostensibly it may yet put on a decent show, it seems inevitable that it will lose numerous votes and a large swathe of MPs.</p>
<p>The looming danger is that in facing the risk of defeat, the party will be tempted to subvert a contrary result in the 2019 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Southall receives funding from the National Research Foundation </span></em></p>Even if President Zuma wins the no confidence vote, the consequences for the ruling ANC are dire. A loss would see it further divided and weakened ahead of the 2019 elections.Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/795062017-06-27T14:57:23Z2017-06-27T14:57:23ZANC take heed: even big brands die if they abandon their founding values<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175576/original/file-20170626-32719-zev6b7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ANC supporters cheer during their party's final election rally in Soweto, May 4, 2014.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-african-general-elections-1994">1994</a> the idea that the African National Congress (ANC) might lose power in South Africa was unthinkable. Now, with elections approaching in 2019, the party is on the ropes. It’s a classic tale of a strong brand that has been allowed to denature, thanks to a string of scandals and the inability to deliver basic services consistently. </p>
<p>The question is, can it be saved?</p>
<p>Lessons learnt from the business world suggest that faltering brands can be saved if they address what is killing them. </p>
<p>Strategy consultant Thabang Motsohi <a href="http://thoughtleader.co.za/thabangmotsohi/2016/09/22/the-anc-must-undergo-creative-destruction-to-re-invent-itself-and-survive/">argues</a> that when sales and profits decline in a business – read when votes decline in politics– it means that the brand has started to erode and the faith that it’s adherents have is waning. Rebuilding it can be challenging and disruptive. And this assumes the managers of the brand have realised that they are failing their support base. </p>
<p>To start, the problems that caused the decline must first be recognised and fixed before the brand rebuilding can resume. Some brands literally disappear from history through bad strategic judgements that lead to self destruction. </p>
<p>Brand management theory and strategy emphasises two fundamental transgressions that can lead to the demise of a brand: violating the brand promise and jettisoning the values that are important to the brand and its supporters. </p>
<p>The ANC had developed into a powerful brand over its 104 year history in a way that inspired devotion among its followers that has bordered on the religious. </p>
<p>But Africa’s best known liberation movement is in trouble. For the first time since 1994, the ANC faces the risk of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2017/04/21/anc-could-lose-power-in-2019-if-zuma-stays-or-dlamini-zuma-takes_a_22048928/">losing power</a>. </p>
<p>In business, and in politics, brands can disappear irrespective of how strong they might have been at a particular time. The same is true of the ANC. Despite President Jacob Zuma’s <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2016-07-05-zuma-repeats-that-anc-will-rule-until-jesus-comes">claim</a> that the ANC will rule until Jesus comes, the party runs the risk of imploding if it doesn’t recognise it’s problems and re-invents itself. </p>
<h2>ANC loses its way</h2>
<p>The handling of scandals by ANC leaders to date has not been reassuring. Its promise of freedom, peace and a better life for all, as well as a future of hope and democracy, is being violated by a growing list of misdemeanours. They include the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ancs-failure-to-do-the-right-thing-has-left-south-africa-at-an-impasse-57130?sr=1">Nkandla debacle</a> and serious allegations that the president, his family and allies, are benefiting from dubious deals with the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22513410">Gupta family</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that the economy is in <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-in-a-recession-heres-what-that-means-78953?sr=1">recession</a>, the ranks of the <a href="http://www.heraldlive.co.za/news/2017/06/01/sas-unemployment-rate-hits-13-year-high/">jobless</a> are growing and that investors are giving South Africa a wide berth because of cronyism, uncertainty and corruption mean that the ANC is seen as unable to govern with integrity and competence.</p>
<p>Some within the ANC are aware of the fact that the party has lost its way. The resistance to a Zuma way is growing. Examples include comments by Deputy President <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/news-national/1475330/unite-greedy-corrupt-people-ramaphosa-urges-sa/">Cyril Ramaphosa</a> and ANC member of parliament <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2016/12/14/who-is-anc-mp-dr-makhosi-khoza-and-why-is-everyone-a-little-in-l_a_21628135/">Makhosi Khoza</a>. With more senior party members speaking openly about the shortcomings of the organisation, there is a glimmer of hope that the brand can be saved. </p>
<p>Johnny Johnson, a brand and communications strategist, <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/business-report/opinion/employees-are-the-best-brand-agents-7984598">argues</a> that everyone in an organisation needs to live up to the brand promise. But, he says, an organisation’s leaders are responsible for looking after the brand and making sure it has integrity. This may even be their most important role. </p>
<h2>Jettisoning the values</h2>
<p>Taking from the <a href="https://www.ujuh.co.za/remember-the-freedom-charter-what-it-actually-says/">Freedom Charter</a>, the ANC preaches equality, prosperity and security. It says that its core values are to build a country that’s united and based on principles of non-racialism, non-sexism and that’s democratic and prosperous. </p>
<p>But the ANC has stopped living up to these values. Service delivery is chequered, tenders are going to connected family and friends, laws are openly flouted, the elite governing class are disconnected from real life, pockets are being lined and paranoia rules. It’s like an amplified version of a restaurant that now only caters for it’s own staff and treats paying customers with disdain. And then seizes the owners shareholding and gives it to the head waiter and his friends. </p>
<p>To fix its brand, the ANC needs moral guardians who will enforce and promote the party’s core values. Maybe then it can live up to the trust placed in it by its great leaders of the past and the country.</p>
<h2>What can the ANC do?</h2>
<p>Opposition parties are <a href="https://www.ujuh.co.za/maimane-we-see-opportunities-to-takeover-national-government-from-anc-in-2019/">waiting in the wings</a> to capitalise on the ANC’s weaknesses. So, what can the party do to stave off this challenge? </p>
<p>A good place to start would be honest self searching and a realisation that the party needs to serve the country and not itself. Perhaps a good old fashioned “SWOT” (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis might help the situation. It must clearly identify, among other things, the party’s core values, strengths that it can build on and the weaknesses that have led to its current state. And then to decide if it is a party that puts the country and all it’s people first, or if it caters only to one target audience and doesn’t care about alienating others.</p>
<p>An honest self appraisal and resistance to special interest factions is key to an analysis that informs future strategies of re-building or re-positioning the ANC brand. One of the few strengths of the party is the fact that it has been in government for a very long time and has done quite a lot of good. </p>
<p>It should look to highlight some of these achievements while reiterating and acting on the noble ambitions of 1994. It has to put able and honest people in positions of influence, not compliant and greedy cadres whose self interest is a deterrent to economic stability, growth, opportunity creation and non-discrimination. The brand promise needs to become the brand reality. </p>
<p>The ANC also has an opportunity to renew itself by promoting a new breed of uncorrupted young leaders, and taking strong action against those seen to be tarnishing the brand or playing to the tune of an alternate or captured state. Thus far, the party has failed to take this opportunity with all the enthusiasm and purpose that it is capable of, and regrettably seems unlikely to do so. This brand is in trouble.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raymond van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The brand of South Africa’s ruling party, the 104-year-old ANC, is in serious decline. The party needs to act decisively to stop this.Raymond van Niekerk, Adjunct Professor, with expertise in Branding, Marketing, Business Strategy, Corporate Citizenship and Social Responsibility. Graduate School of Business, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.