tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/melbourne-lockdown-89970/articlesMelbourne lockdown – The Conversation2023-09-26T04:07:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143722023-09-26T04:07:36Z2023-09-26T04:07:36ZDan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of Victoria<p>Dan Andrews has announced he is quitting, after nearly nine years as premier and three election wins. </p>
<p>Andrews’ surprise announcement came early Tuesday afternoon. He said his resignation would take effect at 5pm Wednesday. </p>
<p>He told a news conference it was not an easy decision “because as much as we have achieved together, there’s so much more to do. But when it’s time, it’s time”.</p>
<p>He said recently, in talking to his family, “thoughts of what life will be like after this job has started to creep in.</p>
<p>"I have always known that the moment that happens it is time to go and to give this privilege, this amazing responsibility, to someone else.”</p>
<p>Andrews, 51, who became premier in December 2014, has been a highly controversial state leader, instigating the toughest lockdowns in the country during COVID. But despite criticisms of that, he won the November 2022 election handsomely. Andrews said he had never been focused on being “100 per cent popular”.</p>
<p>He said he came to his decision fairly recently. But it was right to “go when they are asking you to stay”.</p>
<p>“I am worse than a workaholic,” he said, with every waking moment consumed with the work. He did not know what he would do next. He wouldn’t do much for a while.</p>
<p>Andrews said when he had previously declared he would stay for the duration of this parliamentary term, “it was true then”. He had since changed his mind. </p>
<p>The state caucus will meet on Wednesday to anoint a new premier, with Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan widely favoured. Andrews said if there was a ballot he would be voting.</p>
<p>He had spoken to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who was “a bit shocked”. “I thanked him for the partnership.” </p>
<p>Earlier this year another longstanding Labor premier, Mark McGowan in Western Australia, resigned unexpectedly. </p>
<p>Albanese said Andrews was a man of “great conviction, enormous compassion, and a fierce determination to make a difference”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is stepping down after nine years in the job.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1683832021-09-21T06:48:39Z2021-09-21T06:48:39Z‘It’s almost like grooming’: how anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, and the far-right came together over COVID<p>Scenes of protesters clad in hi-vis jackets and shouting anti-vaccination slogans have dominated the news this week. As the ABC <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-21/victoria-construction-industry-shutdown-melbourne-protest-police/100478450">reported</a>:</p>
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<p>Some of those gathered held a banner reading ‘freedom’, while others sang the national anthem and chanted ‘f*** the jab’. </p>
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<p>Some attacked union offices, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/anti-vax-far-right-activists-undermining-australians-health-safety-20210921-p58tfp.html">drawing criticism</a> from officials such as ACTU chief Sally McManus, who described the protests as being orchestrated “by violent right-wing extremists and anti-vaccination activists.”</p>
<p>These images may shock some but for researchers like me — who research far-right nationalist and conspiracy movements, and explore the online spaces where these people organise — these scenes came as no real surprise.</p>
<p>Far right nationalists, anti-vaxxers, libertarians and conspiracy theorists have come together over COVID, and capitalised on the anger and uncertainty simmering in some sections of the community.</p>
<p>They appear to have found fertile ground particularly among men who feel alienated, fearful about their employment and who spend a lot of time at home scrolling social media and encrypted messaging apps.</p>
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<h2>The latest in a continuum</h2>
<p>It’s important to see what’s occurring with these protests as part of a continuum rather than a series of unrelated incidents. This week’s protests are related to anti-lockdown protests held in 2020, and earlier this year.</p>
<p>It was at first limited to the conspiracy theorist and anti-vaxxer crowd. Some were just upset by lockdowns but most of the planning conversation online was being led by anti-vaxxers and QAnon activists.</p>
<p>These movements thrive on anxiety, anger, a sense of alienation, a distrust in government and institutions. It’s really no coincidence this is occurring most vigorously in Melbourne given what this city has been through with lockdowns.</p>
<p>It has really built momentum over the last year and, more recently, been infiltrated by far right groups. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/far-right-groups-have-used-covid-to-expand-their-footprint-in-australia-here-are-the-ones-you-need-to-know-about-151203">Far-right groups have used COVID to expand their footprint in Australia. Here are the ones you need to know about</a>
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<h2>The far right are capable recruiters</h2>
<p>If you go back two years ago, anti-vaxxers were a tiny minority. They have grown significantly in size and influence online. </p>
<p>I have observed in my research the far right consciously appropriating the language of anti-vaxxers, of the conspiracy movements, seeking to exploit their anger and distrust. </p>
<p>I spend a lot of time on the encrypted messaging groups used by these groups and in the online spaces where they organise. I have seen the same names popping up, and growing use of hard right or far right national socialist iconography.</p>
<p>It is almost like grooming. The far right are a lot more capable of recruitment than we give them credit for. They have found an audience who are angry, frustrated and looking for someone to blame. </p>
<p>This is particularly the case among young men who are increasingly attracted to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-New-Demagogues-Religion-Masculinity-and-the-Populist-Epoch/Roose/p/book/9781138364707">right wing nationalism</a> and make up the majority of protesters. Victoria Police Commissioner Shane Patton has said the majority of protesters at the Saturday protest were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-22/victoria-police-say-melbourne-protesters-largely-young-angry-men/13509266">men aged 25-40</a>, who came with violent intent. </p>
<p>Many of these groups share similar ideas: that there is a cabal of politicians and elites who are oppressing you. That freedom is at risk, that one must stand up for liberty, that there is a wealthy and unelected ruling class controlling you.</p>
<p>COVID — with all the fear, uncertainty, lockdowns, policing and employment impacts it brings — has helped bring these groups together. </p>
<p>Victoria police earlier this year <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/25/far-right-exploiting-anger-at-lockdowns-to-radicalise-wellness-community-police-say">warned</a> a parliamentary inquiry into extremism that:</p>
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<p>online commentary on COVID-19 has provided a recruiting tool for right-wing extremist groups, linking those interested in alternative wellness, anti-vaccination and anti-authority conspiracy theories with white supremacist ideologies.</p>
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<p>The far right has really sought to mobilise frustrated people and push them more toward right-wing narratives, particularly white nationalist narratives. </p>
<p>There is a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxs2pbk/revision/8">strong historical animosity toward trade unions</a> (as the vanguard of the political left) by the far right. It would be disingenuous to view the far right as unintelligent thugs. They are learned in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxs2pbk/revision/8">history of national socialism</a> and fascism and the preconditions for its rise. </p>
<p>So you see the far right working very hard to undermine trade unions and the way they represent the organised working class. There is an attempt to undermine trust in trade unions and paint them as traitors and sell-outs who are in bed with the government.</p>
<p>Among the protesters there was a really self conscious effort to represent themselves as themselves as tradies and workers. Some observed protest organisers encouraging people to wear hi-vis clothing to these rallies. </p>
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<p>It’s important to note the construction industry and trade union movement in general are incredibly diverse, and there will be different and competing views around vaccines, masks and lockdowns. </p>
<p>Some of these protesters actually are tradies, some may not be. Some are union members, others are not. But the broader point is there is a group of people who are incredibly angry about the situation they find themselves in, and resentment is proving fertile terrain for organised groups.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>This is not an easy knot to unpick, but there are three main approaches I think would really help.</p>
<p>The first is we really need to get people back to work. That is critical. People’s self esteem and livelihood is tied up in work and the ability to put food on the table, in staying busy and socially connected (which is often via work). </p>
<p>By ensuring safe, secure employment for people, you really take away one of the main drivers of anger, resentment (and too much time to scroll around social media) that is helping push people toward extremism.</p>
<p>The second is politicians need to think hard and fast about what they can do to help rebuild trust in them, in government and in our institutions. Politicians can’t hide behind press conferences and press releases to get their message out. They need to get out and build trust, face-to-face with the community. Of course, that has been constrained by lockdown but this work is urgent and important. Politicians need to lead and create relationships with the community again.</p>
<p>The third thing is we as a society need to think carefully about social media, and perhaps about regulation. We need a long-term approach to media literacy training, to teach media literacy in schools and to educate people about social media echo chambers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-shut-down-far-right-extremism-in-australia-we-must-confront-the-ecosystem-of-hate-154269">To shut down far-right extremism in Australia, we must confront the ecosystem of hate</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Roose receives funding from the ARC. He was a member of the Australian Labor Party at the time of writing this article but no longer is. </span></em></p>Far right nationalists, anti-vaxxers, libertarians and conspiracy theorists have come together over COVID, and capitalised on the anger and uncertainty simmering in some sections of the community.Josh Roose, Senior Research Fellow, Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1680692021-09-17T00:17:14Z2021-09-17T00:17:14ZDo you think most people are trustworthy and helpful? How we measured ‘social cohesion’ and why its recent dip matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421456/original/file-20210916-23-1g12gkh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C4000%2C2640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 has upended so many aspects of our lives in Australia, it can be hard to remember what life was like before the pandemic. It’s also hard to remember what we feared would happen when the pandemic first struck. </p>
<p>Some of the predictions have come to pass — there was a massive economic shock, travel and mobility have been constrained, mental health has suffered as lockdowns have been extended, and government budget deficits are at levels that would have seemed inconceivable only two years ago.</p>
<p>Another early prediction was that the pandemic would lead to a fraying in social cohesion.</p>
<p>In data <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/tracking-wellbeing-outcomes-during-covid-19-pandemic-august-2021-lockdown">released recently</a> we show there’s been an increase in many aspects of social cohesion over the course of the pandemic. But this may be slipping as lockdowns drag on.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-questions-to-ask-yourself-before-you-dob-advice-for-adults-and-kids-from-an-ethicist-167789">5 questions to ask yourself before you dob — advice for adults and kids, from an ethicist</a>
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<h2>What does social cohesion mean?</h2>
<p>Before discussing results from the most recent survey, it is worth reflecting on what “social cohesion” actually means.</p>
<p>It can mean different things to different people but one useful definition from a recent research <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33827308/">report</a> is:</p>
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<p>the degree of social connectedness and solidarity between different community groups within a society, as well as the level of trust and connectedness between individuals and across community groups.</p>
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<p>In other words, it’s about how much we trust each other, how connected we feel to others and to what extent we feel solidarity and empathy with others. </p>
<p>Social cohesion can operate at the individual, household, or community level. </p>
<h2>How did we measure social cohesion?</h2>
<p>Since April 2020, the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods has been running a multi-wave longitudinal survey tracking the outcomes, attitudes, and behaviours of a representative sample of Australians during the pandemic period. We wanted to see how these factors have changed over time. </p>
<p>Incorporated into the <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll">ANUpoll</a> series of surveys, the data also allows us to track outcomes at the individual level from prior to the COVID-19 period. The study was carefully <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2021/9/Tracking_paper_-_August_2021.pdf">designed</a> to ensure we could be confident the responses were free of many of the <a href="https://www.aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/NPS_TF_Report_Final_7_revised_FNL_6_22_13.pdf">biases</a> that plague many studies where people opt-in to participate. </p>
<p>In February (pre-COVID), May and October 2020, respondents were asked three questions related to social cohesion. These were repeated in August 2021, our most recent wave of data collection. The questions were: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>“Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted, or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people?”</p></li>
<li><p>“Do you think that most people would try to take advantage of you if they got the chance, or would they try to be fair?”</p></li>
<li><p>“Would you say that most of the time people try to be helpful or that they are mostly looking out for themselves?”</p></li>
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<p>These questions are asked across a range of social surveys in Australia and <a href="https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/">internationally</a>.</p>
<p>All three questions were answered on a scale of 0 to 10, and averaged out to give a perceived social cohesion score on a scale of 0 to 10.</p>
<p>Individual-level data for all four surveys are available through the <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/">Australian Data Archive</a> for any researcher to analyse.</p>
<h2>A significant and substantial boost early on — but a recent dip</h2>
<p>Our data suggests there was a significant and substantial improvement in social cohesion between February and May 2020 (the early stages of the pandemic). There was another increase between May and October 2020. </p>
<p>So rather than leading to an erosion of social cohesion, the pandemic — and arguably the government and societal response — appears to have enhanced it. </p>
<p>There was a slight but not statistically significant decline in perceived social cohesion between October 2020 and August 2021. However, perceived social cohesion is still significantly and substantially above what it was pre-COVID.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421502/original/file-20210916-25-ejgeeq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Perceived social cohesion in Australia, February 2020 to August 2021.</span>
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<p>The greatest improvement over the COVID-19 period has been in the trust measure — from 5.40 (out of 10) in February 2020 to 6.02 in October.</p>
<p>The greatest decline over the last 10 months has been in whether people are perceived to be helpful. That declined from an average of 6.23 in October 2020 to 6.04 in August 2021, a difference that was statistically significant.</p>
<h2>Why does it matter?</h2>
<p>Measures of social cohesion are important in their own right. However, there are other reasons society should care about social cohesion.</p>
<p>One that has featured extensively in the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-6486.00170">literature</a> is the reduction in the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/transactioncosts.asp">costs associated with buying and selling</a> — what researchers and investors call <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/231265001?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">transaction costs</a>.</p>
<p>If people trust others to not harm them and to follow through on agreements, then there’s less need for expensive contracts and contract enforcement (think fewer court cases, expensive legal work, resource-intensive arbitration).</p>
<p>Causality is particularly difficult to show with this type of data but it’s possible social cohesion may also lead to or support pro-social behaviour — meaning positive behaviours like friendliness or helping one another.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Neighbours in adjacent apartment wave to each other." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421727/original/file-20210917-29-1sh8o10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Our data suggests there was a significant and substantial improvement in social cohesion in the early stages of the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Our data show, for example, that 38% of those who gave a value of 0 to 2 on the “helpful” question had been vaccinated as of August 2021, compared to 51% of those who gave a score of 3 to 6, and 66% of those who gave a score of 7 to 10. </p>
<p>In other words, those who perceive that people mostly try to be helpful are more likely to have been vaccinated. </p>
<p>Even though we have avoided the worst of the effects that some other countries have seen, COVID-19 has caused immense damage to Australia’s economic, social, and mental health. </p>
<p>One bright spot has been an increase in many aspects of social cohesion. </p>
<p>There are some initial indications that this may be dropping as lockdowns go on, and the end of the worst impacts does not appear to be in sight.</p>
<p>We should make sure that we do not lose our unexpected gains. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-has-announced-extra-funds-for-counselling-but-its-unlikely-to-improve-our-mental-health-167889">Victoria has announced extra funds for counselling, but it's unlikely to improve our mental health</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Biddle received funding from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare for the ANUpoll surveys mentioned in this article</span></em></p>Over the course of the pandemic, there’s been an increase in many aspects of social cohesion.
But this may be slipping as lockdowns drag on. Here’s how we measured social cohesion, and why.Nicholas Biddle, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1677972021-09-15T23:46:24Z2021-09-15T23:46:24ZParents, take the school holidays pressure off yourself. Let the kids embrace the boredom<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421447/original/file-20210915-23-bpk9fh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4760%2C3164&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’re a parent feeling a modicum of dread about the upcoming school holidays, you’re not alone. Many parents will be working from home over the school holidays and wondering, “how am I going to juggle online meetings in the absence of online schooling?”</p>
<p>It’s likely the school holidays will bring a tangle of feelings: stress, guilt, sadness or anger that many of the usual school holiday family activities will be off the table due to lockdowns. Then there’s fear the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13545701.2020.1831039?casa_token=NSUDtjBi9YkAAAAA%253ArmglZxrMATmotS1ySqVHasPKzLQJIpXQPDILzf9S9sDfoOOdJyqX2vB5ntaxcIUAwztHrKFqKg8r8A">additional unpaid duties</a> created for working parents (especially women) will be more pronounced. Many feel pressure to find ways to keep the kids occupied.</p>
<p>I’m a psychologist, a former school psychologist and have lived experience of being a working parent with two teenagers in lockdown. My advice to parents is to take the pressure off yourself. </p>
<p>Let your children embrace boredom and don’t try too hard to create the perfect lockdown holiday. Do what you can now to warn your employer your attention might be even more divided than usual over the next few weeks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-asked-over-2-000-australian-parents-how-they-fared-in-lockdown-heres-what-they-said-150545">We asked over 2,000 Australian parents how they fared in lockdown. Here's what they said</a>
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<h2>Embrace the boredom</h2>
<p>Home schooling, while challenging, has the advantage of occupying children and teenagers for a good chunk of the day. It can provide structure and routine to the stay-at-home blur.</p>
<p>Without school, locked down children and their parents are left to contemplate whatever will they do in all the waking hours of a two-week holiday at home? Do I hear a small voice saying, “I’m bored”?</p>
<p>Many parents instinctively react by trying to think of things for their child to do but have a go at resisting that urge. When they say, “I’m bored”, you say “Great! Now off you go.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421450/original/file-20210915-14-o7oi9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Your children might complain they’re dying of boredom, but they are not. It may even be good for them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A growing body of research evidence suggests boredom in children can make them more creative, with <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10400419.2014.901073?casa_token=Y2oOqdlOjdIAAAAA%253A0JTaaa-R1x-xHURcwkbUtj52xZ1nWKD1ixZLXzwoYrcnqiH3CXHHM_685CDai1cyYLRAz8PzaKRtpA">one study</a> describing how:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>previous <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1978-30995-001">research</a> has shown that individuals use daydreaming to regulate boredom-induced tension, thus suggesting that daydreaming is used as a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001872088102300308">coping strategy</a> for dealing with the unpleasant state of boredom.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Daydreaming is important. The same study notes how US psychologist Jerome <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1975-29729-000">Singer</a> described daydreaming </p>
<blockquote>
<p>as shifting attention from the external situation or problem to the internal representation of situations, memories, pictures, unresolved things, scenarios, or future goals. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Your children might complain they’re dying of boredom, but they are not. It may even be good for them.</p>
<p>For children, school holidays are a time to refresh and recharge. It offers some time out from the routine and learning expectations of school. Boredom and long periods of unstructured play are part of that refresh.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/books-offer-a-healing-retreat-for-youngsters-caught-up-in-a-pandemic-165247">Books offer a healing retreat for youngsters caught up in a pandemic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A role for employers</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00787-021-01861-z">recent study of Australian parents</a> revealed a significant number of parents have increased rates of depression, anxiety, stress and strained family relationships during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times. </p>
<p>With school holidays looming, employers should be looking for practical ways to help working parents through the next two weeks. This might include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>delaying deadlines where possible</p></li>
<li><p>asking whether those long online meetings are really necessary or productive</p></li>
<li><p>giving working parents permission to take leave, even half-days, to allow for a more manageable balance of paid and unpaid work.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421452/original/file-20210915-22-58jx9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Think carefully about how to communicate your needs to your workplace and your family.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For parents, think carefully about how to communicate your needs to your workplace and your family.</p>
<p>If you have older children, set boundaries around your time — talk to them about your work, let them know what you are doing and why. </p>
<p>Most of all, know you are not alone. You are part of an amazing and resilient tribe of locked down working parents all experiencing the same highs and lows of school holidays at home – and during a global pandemic. </p>
<p>It’s not going to be perfect, but it will be OK in the end.</p>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone
you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Thielking does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Let your children embrace boredom, don’t try too hard to create the perfect lockdown holiday and warn your employer your attention might be even more divided than usual over the next few weeks.Monica Thielking, Associate Professor, Chair of the Department of Psychological Sciences, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625012021-06-10T01:57:26Z2021-06-10T01:57:26ZMelbourne lockdown: why can’t gyms open yet but hospitality venues can?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405537/original/file-20210610-13-rg2430.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C30%2C3409%2C2235&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Melbourne is once again emerging from lockdown but fitness fans may be wondering: how come gyms remain closed for another week, while hospitality venues are allowed to open?</p>
<p>It’s true in most lockdowns around the world, gyms have often been one of the last places to re-open. From an infection control perspective, the rationale is gyms may, in general, present certain risks that restaurants and cafes don’t.</p>
<h2>Imagine your gym</h2>
<p>Picture yourself at the gym. It might be a reasonably confined space, sometimes with limited fresh air. People are huffing and puffing, ventilation may be poor, everyone is moving around the room to use different pieces of equipment. You might be there quite a while.</p>
<p>After your workout, you might spend a fair bit of time in an equally confined changeroom area showering, changing and getting ready to go back to the outside world.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pressure-is-on-for-australia-to-accept-the-coronavirus-really-can-spread-in-the-air-we-breathe-160641">The pressure is on for Australia to accept the coronavirus really can spread in the air we breathe</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So in this scenario, spending a decent chunk of time in such a confined space milling around with other people represents an elevated risk for COVID-19, which is spread mostly by <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pressure-is-on-for-australia-to-accept-the-coronavirus-really-can-spread-in-the-air-we-breathe-160641">aerosols and/or droplets</a>.</p>
<p>People doing exercise tend to create a lot more aerosols, and it’s not just the exhalation. There’s also a lot of <em>inhalation</em> with all that huffing and puffing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405533/original/file-20210610-39438-1g0ciru.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People doing exercise tend to create a lot more aerosols.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Gyms also often have classes, although of course they could be stopped. But in general you don’t want lots of people next to each other in a confined space breathing heavily.</p>
<p>And it’s not just about the workout room; gyms have a lot of shared facilities. There are showers, toilets, changing areas, hair dryers, a lot of communal areas that would present another risk in terms of people gathering in small spaces for long periods of time. And some people do spend quite a lot of time in the change room, re-doing hair and make-up or having a shave.</p>
<p>Early on there was a thought the equipment itself might pose a bigger risk but surface transmission is now probably less of a concern than other transmission routes. So with gyms, it’s not so much about sharing the weights, it’s more about the time spent together in a confined area.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heading-back-to-the-gym-heres-how-you-can-protect-yourself-and-others-from-coronavirus-infection-139681">Heading back to the gym? Here's how you can protect yourself and others from coronavirus infection</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Hospitality venues, in general, present less risk</h2>
<p>Many hospitality settings have confined spaces too, but many in Melbourne have been encouraged and taken up the option to seat people outdoors or in better ventilated areas. And some can be quite large. </p>
<p>Of course, a lot of gyms may not be confined at all and may have excellent ventilation and outdoor areas. But in general, a great many do not.</p>
<p>In a hospitality setting, you can ensure people stay seated in one spot and remain distanced. That’s not really possible in a gym; it sort of defeats the purpose. The moving around creates extra risk because it means if there is a positive case there, they could be moving all over the room and to different parts of the building. They could spread virus around the entire gym as opposed to just the next table. </p>
<p>It’s true we have seen cases of transmissions in restaurants in this pandemic. So it certainly can happen that a super spreader transmits SARS-CoV-2 to a lot of people in a restaurant. But overall, the risks in a restaurant with other control measures, is probably less than in a gym because of all the movement that occurs. A gym has been linked to a large cluster in <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3125349/hong-kongs-rapidly-expanding-covid-19-gym-cluster">Hong Kong</a>.</p>
<p>You can understand why <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-10/many-melbourne-lockdown-restrictions-are-here-to-stay/100202600">gym owners feel</a> it is not fair and many say they are happy to do anything they can possibly do to reduce the risk, just so they can run their business. You could see how the risk might be reduced by moving the weights to an outdoor area, if there was space. </p>
<p>A staged opening will always have the lower-risk settings and activities come back first. Gyms will come back, but for now it seems that is just a little longer yet.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-dont-have-a-covid-vaccination-certificate-could-you-be-banned-from-restaurants-shops-and-theatres-162248">If you don't have a COVID vaccination certificate, could you be banned from restaurants, shops and theatres?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Mitchell has received research funding from the NHMRC, HCF Foundation, Medtronics, Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control, Nurses Memorial Centre, Senver, GAMA Healthcare, Ian Potter Foundation and Commonwealth (Innovation Connections grant). Professor Mitchell is a Fellow of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control and a Fellow of the Australian College of Nursing. He has run infection prevention and control programs for hospitals and at a State level, and is a credential Expert by the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Russo receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has received research funding from the Rosemary Norman Foundation, Cardinal Health, Australian College of Nursing and the Cabrini Institute. He is the President of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control, a member of the COVID19 Evidence Taskforce Steering Committee, the Australian Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on AMR, the Healthcare Associated Infection Advisory Committee to the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, a member of the Australian College of Nursing, is a credentialed Expert by the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control, and was involved in a review of hotel quarantine for the Victorian Department of Health.</span></em></p>Picture yourself at the gym. It might be confined, people are huffing and puffing, everyone is moving around. And that’s before you hit the showers and change room.Brett Mitchell, Professor of Nursing, University of NewcastlePhilip Russo, Associate Professor, Director Cabrini Monash University Department of Nursing Research, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621662021-06-07T05:26:15Z2021-06-07T05:26:15ZMorrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404727/original/file-20210607-27-1hiwblb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C200%2C5467%2C3484&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-parties-level-pegging-but-morrisonslides/news-story/36e818408722359a24d9e53d6a411c6b">Newspoll</a> had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (down one) and 3% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>The poll was conducted June 2-5 from a sample of 1,516 people. It breaks a sequence of four Newspolls in which Labor had a two-party lead. Figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/06/06/newspoll-50-50-21/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>While the major party primary votes were unchanged, the Coalition gains on preferences from a lower Greens vote and a higher One Nation vote. </p>
<p>However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s ratings took a hit. Of those surveyed, 54% were satisfied with his performance (down four percentage points) and 43% were dissatisfied (up five), for a net approval of +11. That’s Morrison’s lowest net approval since the COVID situation started in March 2020.</p>
<p>Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s net approval was -9, down two points. This is a record low since he became opposition leader. Morrison led Albanese as better PM by 53-32% (the margin was 55-30% previously).</p>
<h2>Are voting intentions and approval ratings moving back into line?</h2>
<p>Voting intentions and the prime minister’s net approval usually move together. But during COVID, voting intentions were far worse for the Coalition than what would be expected from Morrison’s ratings. Voting intentions and the PM’s net approval may be moving back into alignment.</p>
<p>A possible explanation for the contradictory movements is that voters who supported Morrison for his COVID response — but never intended to vote Coalition — are now blaming him for the slow vaccination rollout and the quarantine problems that have led to Victoria’s current lockdown.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pandemic-has-brought-out-the-worst-and-the-best-in-australians-and-their-governments-161745">How the pandemic has brought out the worst — and the best — in Australians and their governments</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, voters who swing between the parties could be giving the Coalition credit for a strong economy, and the government may also be seeing a delayed bounce from the May 11 budget. </p>
<p>Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release">reported</a> that GDP was up 1.8% in the March quarter — and up 1.1% compared to March 2020, before COVID reached Australia. The Australian <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/business/#asx-quotes">stock market</a> has been on a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-a-bull-market?r=AU&IR=T">bull run</a> for about a year.</p>
<p>Provided the current Victorian outbreak is brought under control soon, and there are no further major outbreaks of COVID, the economy is likely to do well. That makes the Coalition clear favourites at the next election. </p>
<p>As I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/non-university-educated-white-people-are-deserting-left-leaning-parties-how-can-they-get-them-back-160617">written previously</a>, people without a university education appear to be acting contrary to elite opinion, so any recent scorn of Morrison will probably help him.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/non-university-educated-white-people-are-deserting-left-leaning-parties-how-can-they-get-them-back-160617">Non-university educated white people are deserting left-leaning parties. How can they get them back?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In last fortnight’s <a href="https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Essential-Report-240521.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted before the recent Victorian outbreak from a sample of 1,100 people, 63% thought it was the federal government’s responsibility to build and manage quarantine facilities, while 37% thought state governments were responsible.</p>
<p>More than half (58%) thought the federal government’s response to COVID was good and 18% poor, down from a 62-17% score in April and 70-12% in March. </p>
<h2>Vaccinations are essential</h2>
<p>The current Melbourne lockdown is already the longest since the almost four-month <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54686812">Victorian lockdown</a> last year. It demonstrates that Australia cannot keep COVID out of the community indefinitely. Once it enters the community, it is difficult for governments to avoid imposing an economically and socially damaging lockdown to prevent spiralling cases and eventually deaths.</p>
<p>Vaccinations are the only way out. But Australia probably needs to vaccinate a greater share of its population than in countries that have been badly hit. People who have <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-does-immunity-last-after-covid-19-what-we-know">recovered from COVID</a> have some short-term immunity, but Australia’s containment has been so <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">successful that just</a> 0.1% of the population have had COVID.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-australia-to-drop-its-phased-approach-to-the-vaccine-rollout-161584">It's time for Australia to drop its phased approach to the vaccine rollout</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Only 17% of <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">Australia’s population</a> has received at least one COVID vaccination dose, compared with 40-60% in comparable countries like France, Germany, the US, the UK and Israel. This percentage includes children, who are not yet eligible in many countries.</p>
<p>All the countries above were hit hard by COVID, and a sizeable number have recovered and have short-term immunity. Australia’s vaccinations are way below where they need to be to insure against a COVID outbreak.</p>
<p>Vaccinations greatly reduce the chance of catching COVID or dying from it. Cases and deaths in the UK and US have been <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/">massively reduced</a> by the vaccination program.</p>
<h2>Minns becomes NSW Labor leader, contested leadership in Tasmania</h2>
<p>Last month, Jodi McKay resigned as NSW Labor leader after the party’s disappointing result at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-has-large-lead-in-nsw-as-nats-easily-hold-upper-hunter-at-byelection-161273">Upper Hunter byelection</a>. </p>
<p>Chris Minns and Michael Daley, who was Labor leader at the 2019 election, were expected to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-31/the-nsw-labor-candidates-to-replace-jodi-mckay/100172768">contest the leadership</a>. But <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-04/chris-minns-to-be-nsw-opposition-leader/100189910">Daley withdrew</a> last Friday, so <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/who-is-chris-minns-nsw-labor-s-new-leader-wants-to-be-the-next-keating-20210605-p57ydd.html">Minns</a> — who has been an MP since 2015 — was elected unopposed.</p>
<p>In other state leadership news, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-15/tas-rebecca-white-will-not-recontest-labor-leadership/100141700">Rebecca White resigned</a> as Tasmanian Labor leader in mid-May after the recent state election at which the Liberals held their majority. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/vote-to-decide-tasmanian-labor-party-leadership/100143498">contest</a> to replace her will be between former champion rower Shane Broad and former minister David O’Byrne. The result will be announced on June 15.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-victory-in-tasmanian-election-is-more-status-quo-than-ringing-endorsement-159806">Liberals' victory in Tasmanian election is more status quo than ringing endorsement</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In a final addendum to the Tasmanian election, <a href="https://theconversation.com/little-change-in-post-budget-newspoll-liberals-win-tasmanian-majority-160618">Liberal Adam Brooks</a> had resigned on May 14 owing to firearms charges. Last week, a countback saw <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/House_of_Assembly_Elections/Recounts/Results/2021/Braddon-recount-210602.pdf?t=2104">Liberal Felix Ellis</a> elected, defeating a fellow Liberal 53.4–46.6%. Party standings remain 13 Liberal, nine Labor, two Greens and one independent.</p>
<h2>US Democrats perform strongly in New Mexico special election</h2>
<p>At a special election for New Mexico’s <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-new-mexico-1st-congressional-district-special-election/">first Congressional District</a> on June 1, the Democrat defeated the Republican by a 60.3-35.7% margin. The almost 25-point Democratic victory is two points better for Democrats than US President Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump in the same district in 2020, and eight points better than the Democratic incumbent in 2020.</p>
<p>While this election was good news for Democrats, they had a <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/03/uk-local-scottish-and-welsh-elections-minus-four-days/">dreadful result</a> in a Texan federal special election on May 1. In a “jungle primary” where all Republican and Democratic candidates run together, Democrats failed to make the top two, so the runoff will be Republican versus Republican.<br>
That was because Republicans overall crushed the Democrats 62-37% in a district Trump won by just three points over Biden.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">FiveThirtyEight aggregate</a>, Biden’s current ratings are 53.4% approve, 40.4% disapprove (net +13.0%). With polls of likely or registered voters, his ratings are 54.4% approve, 40.5% disapprove (net +13.9%).</p>
<p>Biden’s initial ratings had high disapprovals by the standards of past presidents, and he was ahead of only Trump on net approval. But his approval has since been very steady, and he has now overtaken Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford at the same point of their presidencies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this week’s Newspoll, Morrison scored his lowest net approval since the COVID crisis started last year. Anthony Albanese also clocked a record low.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619912021-06-03T04:12:16Z2021-06-03T04:12:16ZLockdowns don’t get easier the more we have them. Melbourne, here are 6 tips to help you cope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404145/original/file-20210603-15-182ync7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C15%2C2600%2C1981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/self-quarantine-middle-novel-coronavirus-outbreak-1679494063">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Melbourne prepares to begin <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/melbourne-lockdown-extended-by-seven-days-after-state-records-six-new-community-covid-19-cases">a second week</a> of lockdown, it’s important to recognise the serious toll this is likely to take on many people’s mental health. </p>
<p>Research during earlier COVID lockdowns in Australia found lockdowns were associated with poorer mental health, such as symptoms of depression and anxiety, among <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00787-021-01790-x">young people</a> and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236562">adults</a>. </p>
<p>A variety of factors play into this — from financial stress, to concerns about contracting COVID-19, to disruptions to work or study, to separation from friends and family. </p>
<p>For Melburnians, this latest lockdown will come as an especially upsetting setback. Victoria faced the longest lockdown in the country last year, and in recent months there’s been largely no COVID in the community. </p>
<p>If you’re a Melburnian and you’re feeling more stressed, uncertain, anxious, lonely or burnt out, or are worrying more about COVID-19, these reactions are completely normal.</p>
<p>But there are a variety of ways you can look after your mental health during this time, which will hopefully make it a little easier.</p>
<h2>1. Stay connected with others</h2>
<p>Lockdown can be extremely lonely, especially for people who are separated from loved ones, or living alone. Fortunately, the “<a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covidsafe-settings">single social bubble</a>” is again in place, where people who live alone or single parents can nominate one person who is able to visit their home. </p>
<p>Keeping <a href="https://theconversation.com/social-distancing-can-make-you-lonely-heres-how-to-stay-connected-when-youre-in-lockdown-133693">in touch with others</a> — via phone, text, social media, or in other ways — can help avoid isolation and depression. Plan these catch ups so they are in your diary. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1398261799540039685"}"></div></p>
<h2>2. Think about what’s in your control, and what’s not</h2>
<p>When facing the prospect of more uncertainty, disruption, and plans turned upside down, it can seem futile to have any expectations at all. You may be left feeling helpless. </p>
<p>Take the time to acknowledge this, but focus on things you can still do, and that you enjoy, or the small things you can do each day to make the day better. For example, doing a hobby you enjoy, exercising, relaxing, listening to music, or watching TV.</p>
<p>Focusing on the smallest of positives, the silver linings, or the things you are grateful for, can help improve mood. </p>
<p>It also helps to recalibrate your expectations so you’re not holding yourself or other people to unrealistic standards (which can cause more distress). Try asking yourself what you’re expecting of yourself or someone else and whether that’s realistic right now. Maybe good enough is good enough, just for one more week. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-screen-time-snacking-and-chores-a-snapshot-of-how-everyday-life-changed-during-the-first-coronavirus-lockdown-143805">More screen time, snacking and chores: a snapshot of how everyday life changed during the first coronavirus lockdown</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Look after your body</h2>
<p>Getting <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3669059/">a good night’s sleep</a>, doing some <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/ongoing-support-during-coronavirus-covid-19/exercising-and-staying-active-during-coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions">physical activity</a>, and eating healthily can help give you more energy, motivation, and help manage the emotional fallout of the extended lockdown. Limiting <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770975">alcohol</a> and drugs is also key. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman doing a sit up on an exercise mat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404147/original/file-20210603-23-3q9a9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Looking after your physical health can be helpful for your mental health.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/lrQPTQs7nQQ">Jonathan Borba/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Manage anger and frustration</h2>
<p>Repeated lockdowns are likely to evoke feelings of frustration and resentment. We might vent our anger in ways we wouldn’t normally, that make us feel ashamed or hurt our relationships. </p>
<p>If you feel an outburst bubbling up, step out of the room or away from your phone. Spend ten minutes writing down what you’re feeling and who is to blame. This is just for you, so don’t censor yourself. Once you have your thoughts down on paper, you’ll likely be calmer and clearer. </p>
<p>Then, ask yourself what more you need to know about the situation and the people in it before yelling or pointing fingers. Try asking questions rather than hurling accusations. A bit more information or another person’s perspective can soothe anger and help us understand each other better.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-the-kids-alright-social-isolation-can-take-a-toll-but-play-can-help-146023">Are the kids alright? Social isolation can take a toll, but play can help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. Set boundaries around your work</h2>
<p>For those who work, be mindful of the hours you’re working and the amount of time you’re “switched on” — for example looking at emails — even after you’ve clocked off. </p>
<p>Working from home <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09875-z">blurs the boundaries</a> between home and work life, and increases the tendency to work harder, for longer. Being mindful of this, ensuring you’re taking breaks, and switching off at night can help reduce exhaustion and burnout. </p>
<p>If you feel like your colleagues or boss are expecting things you can’t deliver at the moment, consider talking to them and coming up with a plan for the remainder of lockdown.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man sitting on the floor at home appears unhappy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404148/original/file-20210603-21-1c86qoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeling stressed, uncertain or anxious is normal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>6. Seek support</h2>
<p>When you’re not feeling like yourself, or you’re exhausted or burnt out, it can be hard to tell the difference between what’s a “normal reaction”, versus when it’s a problem that needs professional help. </p>
<p>If you’re feeling like you may not be coping, talk to a GP you trust, call a <a href="https://www.beyondblue.org.au/get-support/get-immediate-support">telephone counselling service</a>, or contact a mental health professional. They can help assess whether you might benefit from additional support or treatment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-ignore-mental-illness-prevention-in-a-covid-19-world-145686">We can't ignore mental illness prevention in a COVID-19 world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While public health measures to protect us from COVID-19 are important, this pandemic has shown us mental health care should be top of the agenda too.</p>
<p>Building positive coping strategies now can help set you up for positive mental health long term.</p>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jill Newby receives funding from the Australian Medical Research Future Fund, and the HCF Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Baldwin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the things you choose to focus on, to the support you seek from others, to the way you look after your physical health — these coping strategies could help you through Melbourne’s latest lockdown.Jill Newby, Associate Professor and MRFF Career Development Fellow, UNSW SydneyPeter Baldwin, Clinical Research Fellow and Clinical Psychologist, Black Dog InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619962021-06-03T00:15:05Z2021-06-03T00:15:05ZWhy has Victoria struggled more than NSW with COVID? To a demographer, they’re not that different<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403975/original/file-20210602-19-fri851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C5973%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s been much talk in recent days about the demographic and travel behaviour differences between Melbourne and Sydney and to what extent they may help explain why Victoria appears to be struggling with COVID outbreaks, while New South Wales isn’t.</p>
<p>Recent commentary has suggested transport, age, jobs, migrant population and other factors among the reasons that may help explain the difference.</p>
<p>As I outlined in a recent <a href="https://twitter.com/DrDemography/status/1399868867158052870">thread</a> on Twitter, pure luck or random chance play a role in virus outbreaks — but you can also unpack some of these questions using publicly available statistics.</p>
<h2>A tale of two states</h2>
<p>When considering virus outbreaks, population characteristics and behaviours are crucial. The data doesn’t support the suggestion population and behaviour differ greatly between the states. When you look at the numbers, Victoria and NSW just aren’t all that different. </p>
<p>Is Victoria younger than New South Wales? No, <a href="https://abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population-age-and-sex/latest-release">median age and age distribution</a> among the working age population (the most socially interactive group) aren’t all that different. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403954/original/file-20210602-13-efy1at.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is Victoria younger than New South Wales? No.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403963/original/file-20210602-3305-8g7toy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s not a huge difference.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One theory circulating is that there are a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/theories-as-to-why-victoria-falls-victim-to-covid19-outbreaks/cca42d38-7ed5-4f86-804b-aa96d2aa24e3">lot of migrants</a> in Victoria and that these communities are more likely to live together, visit and support each other. Are there more migrants in Victoria versus NSW? Not really, the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release">proportion of the population born overseas</a> is similar in NSW to that in Victoria. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403967/original/file-20210602-17-ekw631.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proportion of the population born overseas is similar in NSW to that in Victoria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about population density, then?</h2>
<p>Is Melbourne more densely populated than Sydney? <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">Not overall</a>. </p>
<p>It’s true the ABS <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">said</a> in a 2021 data release the most densely populated areas in Australia were inner-city Melbourne (22,400 people per sq km), followed by Potts Point-Woolloomooloo (16,700) and Pyrmont-Ultimo (16,500), both in inner Sydney. But, as the ABS <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">points out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Population density can also be explored at a finer level by breaking Australia up into 1 km² grid cells.</p>
<p>Grid cells can be grouped into population density classes, ranging from no population to very high.</p>
<p>Sydney had the largest combined area in the high and very high density classes (193 km²), followed by Melbourne (77 km²) and Brisbane (15 km²). </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The word “combined” there is very important.</p>
<p>Do people in Melbourne use active transport (meaning public transport, biking and walking) more than those living in Sydney? No, Sydneysiders have the highest rate of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyreleasedate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">active transport use</a> in the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403964/original/file-20210602-3305-ooqct6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydneysiders have the highest rate of active transport use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Do people in Victoria live in more crowded housing situations than in New South Wales? No, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/census-population-and-housing-estimating-homelessness/latest-release">overcrowding</a> appears to be a bigger problem in New South Wales where it is estimated there are 49,333 people living in overcrowded housing compared to 28,710 people in Victoria. </p>
<h2>What about travel?</h2>
<p>Do people in Victoria travel longer distances than those living in NSW? No, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EFeature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia%7E40">average commute distances are similar</a> for Victoria and NSW. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=327&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403959/original/file-20210602-19-1jmfng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average commute distances are similar for Victoria and NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ABS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Do people in Melbourne travel around more than those in Sydney? No, the data doesn’t support that based on <a href="https://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/5A8DE31113145D10CA258294001286CB/$File/journey%20to%20work%20-%20net%20flow%20and%20net%20effect%20maps%20for%20greater%20capital%20cities.pdf">travel to work information</a>.</p>
<p>In short, it would appear Victoria and NSW have more in common, demographically, than many think.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recent commentary has suggested transport, age, jobs, migrant population and other factors among the reasons that may help explain the difference. What does the data say?Liz Allen, Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1543672021-02-01T18:58:53Z2021-02-01T18:58:53Z‘The stories a nation tells itself matter’: how will the COVID generation remember 2020?<p><em>This is a longer read. Enjoy</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The speed with which the COVID-19 virus infected the world and the dramatic nature of its fallout is without parallel. Individually and collectively we have struggled to understand and process it. Early on in the pandemic, journalists looked to historians to help make sense of what was happening and to read from the past the possible impacts of this moment on the future. Experts on past pandemics tried to shed light on how we might recover, and on the prospective local and global consequences of this COVID-19 catastrophe. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381623/original/file-20210201-23-z719mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.griffithreview.com/articles/generation-covid/">Griffith Review</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historians find remnants of the past in libraries and archives, in objects, monuments and buildings, in fields and forests, in music and art and images, in memories and stories. This is where we find the <a href="https://www.paulkrameronline.com/history-in-a-time-of-crisis/">roads not taken</a>, the possibilities foreclosed, the thinking that shapes a culture, the choices made that, sometimes through the slow accretion of time and action and sometimes suddenly and dramatically, change outcomes and “make history”. </p>
<p>The sense that a generation carries a distinct identity is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1031461X.2015.1120335">forged by sharing</a> the “experience of profound and destabilising events”. Those events have their greatest impact if people experience them young, typically in their late teens and early 20s.</p>
<p>Generational consciousness is shaped by the sharing of those dramatic events, their subsequent remembering and the recognition, often by older generations, of the distinctiveness of a generational experience or mode of self-representation.</p>
<p>What might the past offer us at this moment, and how will future generations reflect on this year? How will this present become the future’s past?</p>
<h2>The COVID generation</h2>
<p>The generation currently in their late teens and early 20s — the COVID generation — already had cause to be worried about their future. </p>
<p>In 2018 and 2019, hundreds of thousands of them had filled city streets to call for action on climate change and for an end to our dependence on fossil fuels. </p>
<p>In 2020, those young people found themselves stuck at home with remote learning, their rites of passage cancelled, their plans upended, their casual labour no longer required, their collective protests in city streets ruled illegal, their sense of agency curtailed by a microscopic virus with its origins in the ecological breakdown they fear. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-festivals-no-schoolies-young-people-are-missing-out-on-vital-rites-of-passage-during-covid-145097">No festivals, no schoolies: young people are missing out on vital rites of passage during COVID</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many joined the long unemployment queues snaking outside Centrelink offices. </p>
<p>While they are in the age bracket least likely to suffer serious health effects from the coronavirus, they are the generation most likely to struggle to find employment in the post-pandemic world, and the ones who, along with their younger siblings, will be carrying the debt burden of the government’s relief measures for the longest.</p>
<p>The fragility of their future is suddenly even more immediately apparent. Not since their great-grandparents were young has an Australian generation lived with such uncertainty, such a profound sense that the future is out of its control.</p>
<h2>Collective memory</h2>
<p>“Collective memory” is a term historians use to refer to the ways the public “remembers” an event or a period of time. It is the version that gets publicly told, endorsed and reworked through films and history books, commemorative activities, monuments and school curricula. </p>
<p>The further back in time an event occurred, the more abstracted the collective memory of it becomes.</p>
<p>Think Anzac, now one of our most carefully curated memories. In the immediate post-World War I period, understandings of what the war had meant for the nation were <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/anzac-memories/">highly contested</a>. Defeat at Gallipoli, 60,000 lives lost (the highest death rate among the Allied forces), a divided and grieving home-front community and an economy in shreds were not obvious raw materials from which to build a narrative about heroic manhood and the founding of the nation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-anzac-day-came-to-occupy-a-sacred-place-in-australians-hearts-76323">How Anzac Day came to occupy a sacred place in Australians' hearts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Historians played a key role in creating that narrative. C.E.W. Bean <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10314618908595824">crafted it carefully</a>, selecting the stories that would best illustrate the history he wanted to tell, and then campaigning for a monument and museum that would house and celebrate that story — the Australian War Memorial. </p>
<p>Anzac provided a healing narrative that gave solace to grieving families and the nation alike. It helped make sense of unimaginable loss. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The Australian War Memorial." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381564/original/file-20210201-21-16h1mif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Australian War Memorial housed the collective ANZAC narrative. It helped make sense of unimaginable loss.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/canberra-australia-december-12-2014-australian-239719210">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the COVID generation, the return of overwhelming uncertainty cuts deeply in a cohort for whom anxiety and depression were already being described as a pandemic and in a context where mental health was a growing source of national disquiet. They might remember that feeling in their future — or it might not be mere memory. </p>
<p>In 50 years’ time, living with anxiety and uncertainty may be a normal part of the human experience, a consequence of the disruption and havoc of environmental degradation.</p>
<p>Which stories will the COVID generation remember from 2020 — 20, 30, 50 years from now? </p>
<h2>An X-ray of inequality</h2>
<p>They might remember their mothers. One of the fault lines of the pandemic has been gender. More jobs have been lost in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/pandemic-has-impacted-women-most-significantly-20200604-p54ziu.html">female-dominated sectors</a> than in male-dominated ones. Gender inequality is being further entrentched. While men’s participation in childcare has increased slightly with working-from-home arrangements, women have continued to carry the major load, as well as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/coronavirus-covid19-domestic-work-housework-gender-gap-women-men/12369708">bulk of the housework</a>. The juggle of working while home-schooling their children has taken its toll on women. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/low-paid-young-women-the-grim-truth-about-who-this-recession-is-hitting-hardest-141892">Low-paid, young women: the grim truth about who this recession is hitting hardest</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The COVID generation might also remember living in families where precarity and uncertainty were daily realities. The pandemic has functioned as an X-ray of inequality, revealing the cracks in our social fabric. </p>
<p>Will the image of Melbourne’s public housing towers — in which, as the Victorian premier admitted, some of the state’s most vulnerable communities lived — locked down and encircled by police, or the anxious face of a young child gazing from an upper-floor window, become part of the city’s collective memory? </p>
<p>Let them remember, too, alongside all the failures of our systems that have been exposed by the pandemic, the many examples of community strength and collective endeavour. For more than eight months, five million Victorians sacrificed personal freedoms to protect those most vulnerable to the virus. </p>
<p>Many thousands also acted with generosity and selflessness to support and care for those in need. Australians around the country made similar sacrifices. </p>
<h2>The stories we tell ourselves matter</h2>
<p>Historians know the stories a nation tells itself matter; collective memory can suppress competing versions of the past, while individual and family stories might hold conflicting memories. Our work has been crucial in shaping and dismantling, telling and retelling the narratives through which we have come to think of ourselves as a nation. </p>
<p>We have colluded in the silences of colonial dispossession, the erasure of women’s voices and the celebration of environmental-wreckage-as-progress, as much as we have, “in alliances with communities of action”, found voices that have challenged the racist and sexist hierarchies on which such histories were founded. </p>
<p>It’s important to note, however, that many of those stories have not been framed as “national”, but rather as histories of specific groups of people. Their essence has not been abstracted to a national stage and inflected with the power to carry us forward as Australians in periods of existential crisis. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/white-male-and-straight-how-30-years-of-australia-day-speeches-leave-most-australians-out-130279">White, male and straight – how 30 years of Australia Day speeches leave most Australians out</a>
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<p>It is time to bring these marginalised group stories into the national story so we all learn from them as a nation: understand their morals and enact their lessons. </p>
<p>Such an embrace would provide the opportunity for a more honest reckoning with our past — including Indigenous histories — a more authentic reflection of our collective present and richer traditions from which to draw as we face an uncertain future.</p>
<p>The survivors from generations who lived through the Great Depression or World War II, many of them subsequently Australia’s postwar migrants, are among the COVID casualties from our aged-care facilities. They are the generation that helped create our contemporary world. </p>
<p>Daily obituaries in The Age told their stories, their experiences of mass unemployment, war, widespread rationing, poverty and few social services, and presented illuminating stories of hardship, endurance and the importance of community.</p>
<p>But beyond the COVID-19 case count, the exposure of an economic system contingent on precarity and inequality, and the incriminating tally of aged-care deaths, what memories might linger and take shape in the generations who live to look back on this watershed year?</p>
<h2>An obituary to neoliberalism</h2>
<p>It is far too early to predict where this particular historical tide will settle and how this moment of crisis will be recalled. We are still living this story, still captured by the drama of its unfolding, navigating our way along a shoreline none of us has walked before.</p>
<p>If 2020 does prove to be a rupture in our previous trajectory, that contingency will entirely depend on what happens next, be that further pandemics and climate catastrophes or a radical rewind of our carbon emissions and a restructuring of our economy. </p>
<p>Either way, the memories we take forward from this time will be a mix of stories. They will be drawn from individuals and families and gradually coalesce into a broader cultural narrative, one in turn shaped by more powerful forces seeking to draw national significance and meaning from the disaster. </p>
<p>The COVID generation will bring their own distinct memories to shape the national story.</p>
<p>The national stories we tell at this time are crucial. We need stories of adaptation and survival, of resilience and sacrifice, of rebuilding lives shattered by world events, of campaigning for justice, of hope and possibilities.</p>
<p>Too many obituaries have already been written as a result of this pandemic. But I hope for one more. I hope for an obituary to neoliberalism. When the COVID generation remember 2020 and the time that came just after, may they remember the power of community action, collective responsibility and the strength of our diverse body politic. </p>
<p>May they remember the way the passion for change that they carried onto the streets in 2018 and 2019 gradually infected us all, countering the poison of complacency and the power of the fossil-fuel industry alike. </p>
<hr>
<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-covid-in-ten-photos-145318">Friday essay: COVID in ten photos</a>
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<p>May they recall a government that, as in the postwar period, invested heavily in employment schemes, in the welfare state, in social housing and higher education; a government willing to make the connections between the droughts, fires and floods that have ravaged our land in the past three years and the pandemic that has ruptured our world, and to act in response — belatedly but definitively — to protect the future. </p>
<p>And may they celebrate and commemorate a community whose vision, sharpened by these unprecedented times, determined that the history they made and bequeathed would be infused with the values of care, stewardship and justice.</p>
<p><em>This is an edited version of an essay published in <a href="https://www.griffithreview.com/articles/generation-covid/">Griffith Review 71: Remaking the Balance</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Holmes receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>What might the past offer us at this moment, and how will future generations reflect on this year? How will this present become the future’s past?Katie Holmes, Professor of History, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1521722020-12-17T19:08:11Z2020-12-17T19:08:11ZVital Signs: 4 things Australia’s COVID response got right<p>2020 began simply, if dramatically enough in some sense. </p>
<p>We spent the first months preoccupied with bushfires that blackened both our natural environment and our international reputation for taking climate change seriously. Who would have thought that would have been the easy part? </p>
<p>Then came a global pandemic, the largest public health emergency and greatest economic contraction in a century.</p>
<p>Australia has emerged as the nation that may have dealt with these twin crises the best. But it was not obvious we would do so — certainly not in February 2020.</p>
<p>It is important to scrutinise the reasons for our success. In particular, what parts are due to good policy, and what parts to luck?</p>
<h2>Tentative beginnings</h2>
<p>Australia’s initial response to COVID-19 was less certain than, for example, New Zealand’s. In debates about shutting schools, for example there was always a pull to the policy with the least economic impact. </p>
<p>While most economists have supported putting public health policy first, not all in academia, government or the media have agreed. There has been much talk about “the Swedish model”, achieving “herd immunity” naturally, and that the costs of lockdowns far outweigh their benefits. </p>
<p>On March 10, I declared the opposite, in article published by <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/financial-review%2c-tuesday%2c-march-10%2c-2020%2c-pages-from-45-to-45.pdf">the Australian Financial Review</a>. Rather, I wrote, “the economic costs of being reactive are likely to be much larger than the costs of being decisive”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-covid-19-crisis-in-aged-care-shows-elimination-is-the-only-effective-strategy-143621">Vital Signs: the COVID-19 crisis in aged care shows elimination is the only effective strategy</a>
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<p>At the time the article was published there were 93 cases of COVID-19 in Australia and three deaths. It was the week Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared he would <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/prime-minister-scott-morrison-defends-watching-sharks-football-game-during-pandemic/news-story/4d24b39de9cfcf9a243ba3c30b3dbeb3">attend a rugby league match</a> just moments after outlining the government’s advice to ban large crowd gatherings. Our borders were still gapingly open.</p>
<p>I said in that piece “one doesn’t need to be an epidemiologist to understand the logic of exponential growth”. </p>
<p>We got our dose of exponential growth, with cases and deaths, respectively, growing quickly. Our leaders got the message and acted decisively. Morrison even gave up on his beloved Sharks games.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-cost-of-lockdowns-is-nowhere-near-as-big-as-we-have-been-told-142710">Vital Signs: the cost of lockdowns is nowhere near as big as we have been told</a>
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<h2>4 keys to Australia’s COVID success</h2>
<p>With relatively swift action, we got four crucial things in place:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>we lowered the base rate of infections </p></li>
<li><p>we got a serious testing regimen in place </p></li>
<li><p>we developed effective contact tracing </p></li>
<li><p>we built hospital capacity if things went awry.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These are the facts of the case, and they are undisputed.</p>
<p>The places that didn’t do these things used Olympic ice rings as morgues (Spain) and dug temporary graves in parks (New York). We did better. We would not have done better had we listened to the naysayers.</p>
<p>The year evolved. And so did we. And so did our national debate. </p>
<p>Victoria made a colossal mistake, for which there still needs to be a proper accounting. But if we have learned nothing else from 2020, it is that expertise and informed public debate are essential for good policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-victorias-privatised-quarantine-arrangements-were-destined-to-fail-143169">Vital Signs: Victoria's privatised quarantine arrangements were destined to fail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Top marks for a work in progress</h2>
<p>Australia’s economic response has been world-class.</p>
<p>Fiscal support measures such as JobSeeker and JobKeeper were crucial to a public health recovery leading to economic recovery.</p>
<p>But the job is not done.</p>
<p>Sure, the JobSeeker benefits need to taper down over time. But the questions are how much and how fast.</p>
<p>Wage subsidies can’t go on forever, but when to end them without destroying businesses small and large, and jobs along with them?</p>
<p>These will be be the hard questions for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and the rest of the Morrison government in 2021. </p>
<p>In 2020, nonetheless, it has – through a great measure of skill and some measure of luck – helped avoid a COVID catastrophe in Australia.</p>
<p>Let us hope Scott Morrison deals with the everyday as well as he has dealt with the exceptional.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government has through great skill and some luck helped avoid Austrlaia a COVID catastrophe.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1486342020-11-04T19:23:26Z2020-11-04T19:23:26ZUrban golf courses are biodiversity oases. Opening them up puts that at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367333/original/file-20201103-21-1q2etgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C1757%2C1061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>High demand for green space under COVID restrictions led councils in Melbourne to temporarily open golf courses to non-golfers and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/locals-want-covid-normal-to-include-turning-golf-course-into-parkland-20200925-p55zea.htm">fuelled public calls to “unlock”</a> or repurpose them permanently. However, this must be done carefully because many golf courses are oases of biodiversity in Australian cities. If more people visit golf courses, increased disturbance of wildlife is just one of the results that may be incompatible with their nature conservation values. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-are-full-of-parks-so-why-are-we-looking-to-golf-courses-for-more-open-space-147559">Our cities are full of parks, so why are we looking to golf courses for more open space?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Between 2011 and 2014 <a href="https://girg.science.unimelb.edu.au/ecosystem-services-from-large-urban-green-spaces/">we studied</a> the biodiversity of green spaces throughout Melbourne’s south-eastern suburbs. We compared golf courses to nearby public parks and residential areas as these are the land uses that most commonly replace golf courses when they close. </p>
<p>The results surprised us. Golf courses contained the greatest diversity and abundance of beetles, bees, birds and bats of all the green spaces we studied. We found ground-nesting native bees that do not occur in much of the urban landscape because it is dominated by built surfaces and exotic flowering plants. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Grasses, native flowers and trees at a golf course" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366140/original/file-20201028-19-1dawhb3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Golf courses have higher biodiversity than other green spaces in our cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The minimum number of bird species we saw on a golf course was always higher than the maximum numbers at other green spaces. We found much more evidence of birds breeding. There was also a diverse array of insect-eating birds, which are in decline in many parts of Australia. </p>
<p>Some golf courses supported all ten bat species known to occur in this part of metropolitan Melbourne. Bat activity was ten times greater than in nearby areas of housing. Golf courses also supported twice as many bat species considered “sensitive” to urbanisation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-39-endangered-species-in-melbourne-sydney-adelaide-and-other-australian-cities-114741">The 39 endangered species in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and other Australian cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why is biodiversity greater on golf courses?</h2>
<p>There are many reasons golf courses support far more than the typical “urban-adapted” fauna we see in our cities. A key factor is the complex vegetation structure in the large parts of golf courses where you don’t want to hit your golf ball – the “rough” and “out of bounds” areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Looking from the golf tee across the fairway with trees either side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367341/original/file-20201103-15-18inzyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Golfers fear the rough, but local wildlife loves the densely vegetated areas near Dandenong Creek at Glen Waverley Golf Course.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These areas of long grass and dense, often native, shrubs have little to no human intervention. These conditions are rarely found in urban parks and residential gardens, which typically have highly managed vegetation. The relatively high proportion of native plant species, many indigenous to the area, is also very important.</p>
<p>This complex vegetation is critical habitat for a wide array of animals such as small insect-eating birds, larger reptiles and ground-dwelling mammals. For example, occurrence records show Northcote Golf Course is an <a href="http://friendsofmerricreek.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Newsletter_Nov20_Jan21.pdf">important refuge</a> for the small population of swamp wallabies living along Merri Creek in Melbourne’s inner north. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Patch of heath next to golf course fairway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367345/original/file-20201103-13-1eql3oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Areas of heathland are rare in cities, but heathland species have a refuge at Spring Valley Golf Course.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greater leaf litter accumulation and lower soil compaction mean these areas have healthier soils with more biological activity. These soils can also absorb stormwater more effectively, reducing the risk of urban flooding. </p>
<p>Another reason is that golf courses have many more large, old native trees. These mature trees are critical to the breeding success of hundreds of Australia’s animal species as they contain hollows, which are rare in urban areas. Because golf courses often prevent other uses, old trees can be left standing longer than is tolerated in other parts of the city. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Trees along a golf fairway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367342/original/file-20201103-17-1d10ec3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mature native trees provide critical habitat, including nesting hollows, for many species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another important factor is the exclusion of dogs and ability to control foxes and cats, which protects vulnerable fauna. </p>
<p>Golf courses also provide a large expanse of dark vegetated habitat in an otherwise illuminated landscape. This habitat is critical for nocturnal animals such as bats, as well as many birds and invertebrates. Artificial light at night is emerging as one of the most pervasive threats to urban wildlife. </p>
<p>Large refuges of dark habitat in cities are unique and ought to be protected. However, this may be at odds with increased human activity, particularly if night lighting is needed to satisfy <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/major-safety-audit-for-merri-creek-trail-following-shocking-alleged-rape-20191206-p53hj8.html">safety concerns</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-smarter-about-city-lights-is-good-for-us-and-nature-too-69556">Getting smarter about city lights is good for us and nature too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Shared use is possible but must be managed</h2>
<p>We are not suggesting golf courses should not be made more accessible to the public. The COVID-19 restrictions on human movement have highlighted the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-are-full-of-parks-so-why-are-we-looking-to-golf-courses-for-more-open-space-147559">value of urban green spaces</a> as places to exercise, socialise and connect with nature. But if city golf courses are opened to the public, it is vital it not be done at the expense of their biodiversity. </p>
<p>Indeed, shared-use models may ensure golf courses remain viable in Australian cities. Recognition of their biodiversity, cooling and social benefits via mechanisms such as council rate rebates could help ease the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-23/golf-on-the-hunt-for-new-members-after-tough-times/7957146">financial pressures of decreasing membership</a>. </p>
<p>The potential for golf course managers to improve the habitat that sustains biodiversity is also great. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/culture/art-and-design/gardening-above-par-20200731-p55h96.html">Ways to achieve this</a> include tree planting, direct seeding of native grasses and wildflowers, and regeneration burns. Many course managers are eager to do this, although they have to proceed cautiously because it can affect the speed of play.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="revegetation area at golf course" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367343/original/file-20201103-13-7mex45.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Revegetation projects like this one at Woodlands Golf Club add even more value for wildlife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicholas Williams</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australian cities have some of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf">highest population growth</a> rates <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-is-one-of-the-fastest-growing-cities-in-the-developed-world-20180920-p504zn.html">in the developed world</a>. This growth is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-39-endangered-species-in-melbourne-sydney-adelaide-and-other-australian-cities-114741">putting pressure on our biodiversity</a>, decreasing human liveability and increasing conflict about the use of increasingly crowded green spaces. </p>
<p>Some urban golf courses <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/gardening/factsheets/beyond-the-rough/11481964">support threatened species and communities</a>, but all are biodiversity refuges in what can be a hostile urban landscape. We need to consider this when contemplating alternative uses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Williams has received funding from Hort Innovation, City of Melbourne, Australian Research Council, Australian Golf Course Superintendents Association and the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning. He is also the President of Friends of Merri Creek. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research presented in this article was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP110100686), in collaboration with Industry Partners: Australian Golf Course Superintendents Association and the Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. The project ran from 2011-2014.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caragh Threlfall receives funding from the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, funded by the Australian Government’s National Environment Science Program; the City of Melbourne and the Australian Research Council through the Discovery Early Career Researcher Scheme (DE200101226). The research presented in this article was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP110100686), in collaboration with Industry Partners: Australian Golf Course Superintendents Association and the Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. The project ran from 2011-2014.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Livesley has received funding from Horticulture Innovations Australia, Melbourne Water, City West Water, Nursery and Garden Industry Australia and many local governments. The research presented in this article was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project (LP110100686), in collaboration with Industry Partners: Australian Golf Course Superintendents Association and the Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. The project ran from 2011-2014.</span></em></p>COVID-19 restrictions led to calls to open up golf courses to the public. But these are such precious refuges for native flora and fauna that access will have to be carefully managed.Nicholas Williams, Associate Professor in Urban Ecology and Urban Horticulture, The University of MelbourneAmy Hahs, Senior Lecturer In Urban Horticulture, The University of MelbourneCaragh Threlfall, ARC Discovery Early Career Research Fellow, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of SydneyStephen Livesley, Associate Professor in Urban Ecosystems, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1491562020-10-30T02:26:09Z2020-10-30T02:26:09ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on state borders, Australia post, and Doha airport<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Vice-Chancellor and President Paddy Nixon discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>This week the pair discuss the ongoing disputes between the federal and state governments concerning borders, Australian Post CEO Christine Holgate’s evidence before senate estimates, and the incident which affected Australian women at Doha airport.</p>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the political week that was with Professor Paddy NixonMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489812020-10-29T02:51:16Z2020-10-29T02:51:16ZFear of going out? Here’s how Melburnians can manage anxiety when returning to ‘normal’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366077/original/file-20201028-21-2nwxy0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6500%2C4330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Melburnians are joyous at the prospect of a return to socialising, as the city <a href="https://theconversation.com/today-marks-the-official-end-of-the-second-wave-in-victoria-as-old-freedoms-return-148626">regains some old freedoms</a> this week following significantly eased coronavirus restrictions.</p>
<p>Social media is <a href="https://twitter.com/kristian_silva/status/1321082385278980097">teeming with images</a> of people looking ecstatic about the end of lockdown.</p>
<p>But in stark contrast to these images, some people might feel nervous about socialising or going out again — especially those who were anxious before the pandemic. If you feel like your social skills are a bit rusty, you might feel more comfortable at home. And the fear of another lockdown might also make you want to avoid going out altogether.</p>
<p>And on top of these, there’s a raft of new and often complicated rules to understand, which can be overwhelming and draining. Then there’s the stress and pressure of making plans and having busy schedules again.</p>
<p>However, it’s important to remember there are ways to cope. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/today-marks-the-official-end-of-the-second-wave-in-victoria-as-old-freedoms-return-148626">Today marks the official end of the second wave in Victoria, as old freedoms return</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fear of going out</h2>
<p>It’s helpful to remember you’re in an unusual situation with no perfect map of how to cope, or a “right” or “wrong” way to get through it. For most people, the anxiety will naturally ease over time. It’s normal to feel anxious, nervous, apprehensive, and even overwhelmed, and equally normal to find yourself feeling excited or joyous. It’s also OK to take your time and slowly ease back into how things were before the lockdown started. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1320664902059487232"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s OK to say no to some events or situations if you don’t feel comfortable with them at first. </p>
<p>However, if you’re shy or nervous in social situations, avoiding social situations completely can make it worse. The more we avoid, the scarier socialising becomes, and the less chance we have to discover we often cope better than we expect.</p>
<p>To build your confidence, it can be helpful to take it step by step, using the principles of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-exposure-therapy-and-how-can-it-treat-social-anxiety-64483">exposure therapy</a>. Begin by socialising with people you feel more comfortable with, and then gradually building up to larger crowds, such as in shops, pubs or other large venues. </p>
<p>It’s also useful to be conscious of negative thoughts that make you feel more anxious, and learn techniques to challenge and change these thoughts into more realistic or helpful ones that help you feel more confident. <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-cognitive-behaviour-therapy-37351">Cognitive behavioural therapy</a> teaches you practical techniques to manage anxious thoughts, and is available <a href="https://thiswayup.org.au/courses/the-social-anxiety-course/">online</a>. </p>
<h2>Coronaphobia</h2>
<p>Melbourne has <a href="https://theconversation.com/finally-at-zero-new-cases-victoria-is-on-top-of-the-world-after-unprecedented-lockdown-effort-148808">conquered its second wave</a> of COVID-19 and is now seeing very low new daily case numbers, with a 14-day rolling average <a href="https://twitter.com/VicGovDHHS/status/1321562702108655617">of just 2.4</a>.</p>
<p>Although the risk of contracting COVID-19 is now much lower, it’s normal to still feel some anxiety about contracting it, or worry about unwittingly spreading the virus to your loved ones. The invisible nature of the virus, and the fact it can be spread by people without symptoms, is what’s had public health authorities and epidemiologists so concerned. And with a lot of exposure to public health messaging to stay safe and protect yourself and the community, it’s easy to have internalised these messages so much that the outside world feels dangerous.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236562">research</a> at the Black Dog Institute with 5,070 Australian adults showed that while many feared contracting COVID-19, it was also common to worry about loved ones getting it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1285864971566374912"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s normal to feel a bit worried about COVID-19, as you return to restaurants, pubs, cafes and workplaces. But there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/7-ways-to-manage-your-coronaphobia-138120">some signs</a> to look out for that your worries might be getting out of hand, and that it’s time to seek some help. </p>
<p>If you find it hard to stop worrying, the worries are persistent or intense, you constantly check yourself for symptoms, you actively avoid certain situations, you’ve become overly obsessive about decontaminating surfaces or your clothes, or if anxiety interferes with your life, you might find it helpful to chat to a psychologist. The best place to start is to talk to your GP to get a referral to a psychologist, or you can complete a brief online assessment to get evidence-based treatment recommendations, such as the Black Dog Institute’s <a href="https://onlineclinic.blackdoginstitute.org.au/">Online Clinic</a>. </p>
<p>There are also ways you can manage these anxieties, including by reducing the time you spend reading <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-too-much-news-is-bad-news-is-the-way-we-consume-news-detrimental-to-our-health-146568">media reports</a> about the virus, avoiding <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-dr-googles-making-you-sick-with-worry-theres-help-125070">googling about the virus</a>, and learning ways to help you feel safe, but also work towards returning to normal at a pace you feel comfortable with. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/7-ways-to-manage-your-coronaphobia-138120">7 ways to manage your #coronaphobia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Feeling overwhelmed</h2>
<p>Managing fear of another lockdown, anxiety about socialising, and fear of COVID-19 are all happening on top of rules like remembering to bring your mask with you and wear it. And no doubt many business owners and staff will be stressed about maintaining hygiene and ensuring their venues are COVID-safe. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1320858536360833024"}"></div></p>
<p>There are undoubtedly good reasons for these rules. But processing, internalising, and remembering the various rules can be draining, and put more cognitive load on people who may already feel tired, uncertain, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236562">stressed</a> and overwhelmed. </p>
<p>It can help to learn techniques to break down what feels overwhelming into smaller, more manageable steps, and to write things down (like the rules!) so you’re not overloading your already taxed memory. It might also help to learn ways to combat stress, such as improving your sleep habits, doing physical activity, learning relaxation techniques, and sharing how you’re feeling with others so you feel supported and not alone.</p>
<p>Go a bit easier on yourself if you’ve been expecting too much of yourself, or are too self-critical. It also helps to take breaks away from work, and from stressful situations, including smaller mini-breaks during the day, but also longer breaks like a holiday.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-wonder-isolations-so-tiring-all-those-extra-tiny-decisions-are-taxing-our-brains-136965">No wonder isolation's so tiring. All those extra, tiny decisions are taxing our brains</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone
you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jill Newby receives funding from the Australian Medical Research Future Fund, and the Aesthetic Surgery Education and Research Foundation.</span></em></p>It’s helpful to remember you’re in an unusual situation with no perfect map of how to cope, or a ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way to get through it.Jill Newby, Associate Professor and MRFF Career Development Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488082020-10-26T05:24:29Z2020-10-26T05:24:29ZFinally at zero new cases, Victoria is on top of the world after unprecedented lockdown effort<p>If the past few months have been like a long-haul flight, Victorians are now standing in the aisles waiting for the cabin door to open, a little groggy and disoriented but relieved.</p>
<p>They have every right to be. No other place in the world has tamed a second wave this large. Few have even come close.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/of-all-the-places-that-have-seen-off-a-second-coronavirus-wave-only-vietnam-and-hong-kong-have-done-as-well-as-victorians-148520">Of all the places that have seen off a second coronavirus wave, only Vietnam and Hong Kong have done as well as Victorians</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>It’s not a competition</h2>
<p>Comparing different countries’ fights against COVID-19 is not a straightforward exercise, given differences in demography, geography, health system capability, and government strategy.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, not every country has tried to get down to zero, or near zero, community transmission. This may not have been a realistic goal for countries with less border control than Australia.</p>
<p>Also, as Victorians understand acutely, the virus is unpredictable. Today, as the crisis accelerates in Europe and elsewhere, Victoria’s “zero new cases” are the envy of the world. But there can be no certainty about where things will be in a few months’ time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1320474981877325830"}"></div></p>
<p>All of this is to say that a favourable international comparison should not encourage complacency. But it is nevertheless true that Victoria’s efforts are notable on the world stage. The state’s success has warded off a significant human toll and further economic damage. As a result, Australia has a much better chance of returning to an approximation of “normal life” in the new year.</p>
<p>Victorians should be proud of these efforts, and the starkly different outcomes in countries that were in a similar position should reassure them that the efforts were worthwhile.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1320593910834446336"}"></div></p>
<h2>Surfing the second wave: Victoria, Singapore, then daylight</h2>
<p>On August 5, Victoria’s seven-day average of daily new cases reached 533, the worst numbers seen anywhere in Australia.</p>
<p>Several other countries had similar numbers around that time, including Canada, Japan, Singapore, and most of Europe. They had taken different paths to get there; for Europe, these numbers represented a low ebb, not a peak. But the trajectories after this period diverged even more dramatically.</p>
<p>As the chart below shows, case numbers in several European countries began to accelerate steeply and are now much worse than ever. In contrast, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Singapore, and Australia have so far kept case numbers at a moderate level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart shows that from a similar position to Victoria, many countries lost control entirely." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365468/original/file-20201026-17-h1yh8i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But as this next chart shows, there is significant divergence even among these relatively stable countries. Sweden appears on track to replicate the sharp acceleration seen elsewhere in Europe. In Denmark and Japan, case numbers remain at a moderate level but are not trending towards zero. Only Victoria and Singapore, which peaked at around 300, have returned to single digits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart shows that among places where numbers have remained low, Victoria and Singapore are outliers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365467/original/file-20201026-19-saxbwi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By suppressing their second waves, Victoria and Singapore are well placed to join a small club of countries that have sustained zero or near-zero cases, including New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and the rest of Australia. The dividend for these countries has been economic, not just health-related, as the chart below shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart shows that countries with the worst death tolls have had the worst economic outcomes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365469/original/file-20201026-23-1lfbcmf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Victoria’s lockdown has been long and difficult, but it now occupies a rare and envious position. As Victorians await new freedoms on the next step towards COVID-normal, they should feel a sense of accomplishment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/set-ground-rules-and-keep-it-intimate-10-tips-for-hosting-a-covid-safe-wedding-140940">Set ground rules and keep it intimate: 10 tips for hosting a COVID-safe wedding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Duckett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria’s lockdown has been hard, but it now occupies a rare and envious position. As Victorians await new freedoms on the next step towards COVID-normal, they should feel a sense of accomplishment.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteTom Crowley, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1487832020-10-25T07:16:27Z2020-10-25T07:16:27ZDaniel Andrews’ delay prompts new questions about Victoria’s contact tracing<p>The Morrison government and business have reacted angrily to Daniel Andrews’ “cautious pause” on announcing the easing of COVID restrictions in Melbourne, saying it showed the state government lacked faith in its contact tracing.</p>
<p>The delay of the announcement – which Andrews said would only be for a day or two – follows an outbreak in the northern suburbs of Melbourne. Andrews insisted the pause would not stop things opening on or before November 1, as scheduled.</p>
<p>After talking up expectations of a major announcement, the premier hosed them down on Saturday before declaring on Sunday a hold until at least 1,000 test results from the northern metropolitan outbreak were processed.</p>
<p>The federal government said the pause was “a profound disappointment.”</p>
<p>“At some point, you have to move forward and put your public health systems to work in a bid to reclaim the jobs that have been lost, and rescue the livelihoods and peace of mind of so many Victorians who have been affected by the inability to contain the outbreak that led to the second Victorian wave,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, and Health Minister Greg Hunt said in a
statement.</p>
<p>“Victoria’s public health systems are either up to the task of dealing with future outbreaks or they are not. The decision to keep businesses closed suggests that there is still not sufficient confidence within the government that their systems can support reopening.”</p>
<p>Andrews’ delay brought a sharp reaction from his former health minister Jenny Mikakos, who tweeted:</p>
<p>“The set reopening is gradual & safe so any delay is unnecessary. It’s paralysis in decision-making.”</p>
<p>The Australian Industry Group said the state government’s failure to set out guidelines for Melbourne’s reopening was “yet another hammer blow to business confidence”.</p>
<p>“The decision reflects a clear lack of confidence by the government in its own testing and tracing systems,” Ai Group chief executive, Innes Willox, said.</p>
<p>The Business Council of Australia also pointed the finger at Victoria’s health system. “There can only be one explanation for the delays – Victorian authorities do not have confidence in their procedures to manage local outbreaks and we urge them to collaborate with NSW and adopt the NSW system,” BCA chief executive, Jennifer Westacott, said.</p>
<p>The Victorian pause is especially frustrating for the federal government because on Friday all jurisdictions except Western Australia agreed in principle to a new “Framework for National Reopening Australia by Christmas”.</p>
<p>Morrison and his ministers said in their statement that while the federal government “welcomes Victoria’s commitment to the national framework agreed at national cabinet to have Australia open by Christmas, for many Victorian businesses and their workers today’s announcement will mean they will simply not be able to make it”.</p>
<p>The Victorian government delay comes as there were seven new cases reported in the state, six of them linked to cases associated with the northern metropolitan outbreak.</p>
<p>Andrews insisted at his daily press conference the delay in making an announcement was “not a setback”.</p>
<p>“This is not anything other than a cautious pause, to wait to get that
important information, to get the results of those tests.”</p>
<p>Andrews said that even if an announcement on easing Melbourne restrictions had been made on Sunday businesses would not have opened before Tuesday night or Wednesday.</p>
<p>The premier did announce some further easing of restrictions for regional Victoria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Morrison government and business have reacted angrily to Daniel Andrews’ “cautious pause” on announcing the easing of COVID restrictions in Melbourne.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484282020-10-20T01:35:40Z2020-10-20T01:35:40ZWhen and how should the Victoria-NSW border reopen? Is fishing allowed in Victoria? When can I travel between Melbourne and regional Victoria? Your COVID-19 questions answered<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364378/original/file-20201020-19-hcbrr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4726%2C3011&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victoria recorded one new case of COVID-19 on Monday, another fantastic result that suggests the coronavirus outbreak there is now being well controlled. Premier Daniel Andrews said on Tuesday the state was “well placed this weekend to be able to make very significant announcements about a further step to opening”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1318328050552086529"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s worth acknowledging what a fantastic job everyone has done in Victoria. Huge sacrifices have been made, people have done the hard yards in difficult circumstances, and now it’s time to step our way out.</p>
<p>Here are answers to common questions about emerging from lockdown and how to make sure you’re doing it safely.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-is-almost-out-of-lockdown-its-time-to-trust-melburnians-to-make-their-own-covid-safe-decisions-148316">Melbourne is almost out of lockdown. It's time to trust Melburnians to make their own COVID-safe decisions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>When and how should the Victoria-NSW border reopen?</h2>
<p>The Sydney Morning Herald <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-victoria-border-could-reopen-within-a-month-20201019-p566i8.html">reports</a> the NSW-Victoria border could reopen within a month (and Andrews said he would like to see NSW reopen to regional Victoria as early as this week).</p>
<p>The Herald <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-victoria-border-could-reopen-within-a-month-20201019-p566i8.html">quoted</a> NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are very keen to see what happens in Victoria once further restrictions are eased because that’s the real test […] And if Victoria demonstrates that they’ve […] upped their contact-tracing capacity, that they’re able to demonstrate they’re not going to have uncontrolled outbreaks while they’re easing restrictions, well that will give us confidence to open the borders.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So there’s a bit of guesswork here but if you match her comments up with the current <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">roadmap to ease restrictions</a>, it sounds like there’s a chance the border could be reopening some time in the first half of November.</p>
<p>There will be a period of watching closely how well Victoria does as restrictions ease; this will be the real test of where Victoria is at in terms of suppressing transmission.</p>
<p>But once you have confirmation NSW and Victoria are pretty much tracking the same way, there’s no reason to keep the border closed. There are plenty of good economic and social reasons to have it open.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1318341612200587264"}"></div></p>
<p>Even though the numbers look fairly similar between Victoria and NSW, the shape of the two outbreaks has been and remains slightly different. In NSW, most new cases are from overseas arrivals and the number of mystery cases is lower, as shown in this <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-versus-melbourne-what-the-experts-say-about-the-covid-numbers-comparison-20201019-p566ic.html">excellent breakdown</a> published by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. </p>
<p>So, quite reasonably, there’s a bit of caution about letting Victorians into NSW; there’s more uncertainty around exactly where Victoria sits in terms of controlling the spread of the virus. But as long as things continue to go well in Victoria as it opens up, NSW can have greater confidence it’s safe to reopen the border. </p>
<p>How should the opening of the border be managed? Well, I don’t think you can attempt a staged opening of a border. The whole point of a border reopening is to allow free movement between the two states. Either you wait until you’re confident and then open the border, or you don’t do it at all. You can’t half open it.</p>
<h2>Is fishing allowed in Victoria?</h2>
<p>For Melburnians, the answer is basically yes, assuming there’s a fishing spot within your 25km radius and you’re sensible about it. As with all activities, it’s important to stick to the restriction changes <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CGd1bfzBqD1/">announced this week</a> and follow hygiene and distancing rules. (Use <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-18/melbourne-25km-map-coronavirus-restrictions/12779704">this ABC tool</a> to find out what’s within 25km of your Melbourne home.)</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CGd1bfzBqD1","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>For regional Victorians, you can go fishing as long as you’re being COVID-safe and following the restrictions (outlined in the Instagram post embedded above).</p>
<p>The Victorian Fishing Authority <a href="https://vfa.vic.gov.au/recreational-fishing/COVID19">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When fishing or boating you must keep a 1.5m distance from other participants, wear a fitted face covering at all times (except for children under 12 or where an exemption applies), practice good hygiene and not share equipment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I’m not much of a fisherman myself but, as an epidemiologist, I think fishing sounds like a lovely, low-risk, relaxing outdoor activity — if you don’t mind dealing with the fish.</p>
<h2>When can Melbourne people travel to regional Victoria?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/summary-of-the-changes-to-restrictions-for-metropolitan-melbourne-and-regional-victoria">According</a> to the Department of Health and Human Services, for Melburnians:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Travel to regional Victoria is still only allowed for permitted purposes even if this is within 25km. This means you cannot travel into regional Victoria for exercise or recreation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is the “ring of steel” you have heard so much about, the aim of which is to protect regional Victoria from the virus in metropolitan Melbourne. </p>
<p>The government’s <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/last-step-coronavirus-roadmap-for-reopening">Roadmap for reopening</a> currently says when there have been zero new cases in the community for more than 14 days, the state can move to the roadmap’s final step. Then, travel within Victoria will be allowed (but you can’t enter any restricted area).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-holidaymakers-arrive-what-does-covid-19-mean-for-rural-health-services-148183">As holidaymakers arrive, what does COVID-19 mean for rural health services?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Can regional Victorians visit Melbourne?</h2>
<p>According to the <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/travel-regional-victoria-third-step-covid-19">third step</a> in the roadmap, regional Victorians:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…must not travel into metropolitan Melbourne under current restrictions, except to buy necessary goods and services, for care and compassionate reasons or permitted work or education. While in metropolitan Melbourne you must comply with the metropolitan Melbourne restrictions.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man fishes in Melbourne." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364387/original/file-20201020-15-11diypr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fishing is a low-risk, relaxing outdoor activity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You can travel through metropolitan Melbourne on your way to a holiday in regional Victoria but shouldn’t stop unless it is for one of the three <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/travel-third-step-regional-victoria">permitted reasons</a>.</p>
<h2>Being smart about it</h2>
<p>As the pendulum shifts away from the government telling us what we can do, to us making our own decisions, it’s important to be COVID-safe in the way we navigate this new normal. </p>
<p>That means limiting your contact with people, wearing a mask, practising social distancing and hand hygiene, staying home when sick, and getting tested if you have symptoms.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-right-lockdowns-should-be-short-and-sharp-here-are-4-other-essential-covid-19-strategies-148175">WHO is right: lockdowns should be short and sharp. Here are 4 other essential COVID-19 strategies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Here are answers to common questions about emerging from lockdown and how to make sure you’re doing it safely.Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483162020-10-18T04:11:38Z2020-10-18T04:11:38ZMelbourne is almost out of lockdown. It’s time to trust Melburnians to make their own COVID-safe decisions<p>After days of speculation, today’s <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-77">announcement</a> by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews was pretty much as we expected: a significant lifting of restrictions, albeit only a half-step out of lockdown. </p>
<p>From 11.59pm tonight, Melburnians will be able to travel up to 25km from home, with no time limits on exercise or recreation, bringing the chance to play a round of golf or visit the hairdresser. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-537" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/537/8e850ba2a98be799c6eabad5707139fbe9a702dc/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even more encouragingly, we may only have to wait a week until the lockdown is lifted, the “four reasons” to leave home are removed, and retailers and other businesses can once again open their doors. </p>
<p>Andrews said the planned move to step three of the COVID-19 roadmap could be brought forward a week from its provisional date of November 1 if case numbers — now tracking at 7.5 new cases a day for metropolitan Melbourne and just 0.5 in the regions — remain favourable.</p>
<p>“Victorians have stayed the course, and we just have a little longer to go,” he said.</p>
<p>I agree Victorians can rightly be proud, because this lockdown was a very big ask. In fact, I see no reason why we can’t remove blanket rules such as the 25km radius and Melbourne’s “ring of steel” immediately.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-539" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/539/25f6f63d0a8f0e9ac2bf721841c0a4a55f08e6fd/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Buying time</h2>
<p>The blanket restrictions in Melbourne, which have been in place since early July, have bought time to rebuild our public health response, with stronger measures for testing, contact tracing and isolating outbreaks. The idea is to “bring the restrictions to the virus”, meaning we can now contain it wherever it might appear. </p>
<p>As a result, restricting the general public’s movements with the help of blanket rules makes less sense, because many Melburnians now have a minuscule risk.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-14-day-rolling-average-of-5-new-daily-cases-is-the-wrong-trigger-for-easing-melbourne-lockdown-lets-look-at-under-investigation-cases-instead-147906">A 14-day rolling average of 5 new daily cases is the wrong trigger for easing Melbourne lockdown. Let's look at 'under investigation' cases instead</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I don’t understand why we need to impose a 25km limit. It’s such a big radius but will still exclude people who live at opposite ends of the city from seeing each other. Perhaps the fear is too many people will congregate in popular or scenic places. But surely that can be managed by scrutinising those particular places.</p>
<p>In contrast, when Singapore was coming off its second wave, it lifted restrictions when COVID-19 cases were at 60 per million people, per day. Melbourne’s current average is just over 1 case per million people, per day. If Andrews were to promote Victoria’s strategy to the rest of the world, I’ve no doubt they would agree it’s been a success, but they would probably also wonder why it is taking so long.</p>
<p>We had an extended blanket lockdown that was enough to quash the virus multiple times over in households. But we weren’t able to contain it in aged care, certain workplaces, and complex households.</p>
<p>With cases now so low, the idea that all public movement equals viral spread is not true. There’s a lot more to this virus than this sort of reductionist approach. We know probably 70% of people don’t even pass it on, and that many cases are the end of a chain of infection. If we do get a cluster, we will likely pick it up. This gives me confidence Melbourne will be able to open up fully next weekend.</p>
<p>The wholesale rebuilding of our contact-tracing means we are now very much on the front foot. Health authorities should continue urgently interrogating and isolating new cases, particularly mystery ones.</p>
<p>But for the wider public, it is now important to instil a sense that the government trusts people to be sensible for themselves. The more rules we have, the harder it is for people to have a sense of agency.</p>
<p>The rules should now be focused on areas where there is greatest risk. Unnecessary blanket rules might get in the way of people buying in. For instance, the ring of steel shouldn’t be necessary, given the testing and tracing measures we now have in place. What’s more, I think it will be a long time before people go back to their old patterns of movement, given that people have become acclimatised to staying at home.</p>
<p>This also means it’s easier to consider lifting border restrictions. While we’ve been busy fighting off the second wave we’ve built the health response to a point where we can live with the virus. So things like borders become less crucial.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-right-lockdowns-should-be-short-and-sharp-here-are-4-other-essential-covid-19-strategies-148175">WHO is right: lockdowns should be short and sharp. Here are 4 other essential COVID-19 strategies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If authorities aren’t busy policing things that don’t make much of a difference, such as the 25km rule, it will free up resources and also mean people have one less rule, and one less fine, hanging over them.</p>
<p>I would also urge authorities to allow people to wear masks only in situations where it makes a real difference, as opposed to everywhere. It’s easier to trust the public to do that when they’re not being told to wear them all the time. </p>
<p>Over more than three months, Victorians have grown used to being told what to do in intense detail. Now it’s time for people to get back some control, and I’m hopeful we can do that in a way that’s safe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Bennett has received funding from the NHMRC.</span></em></p>Melbourne could be out of lockdown within a week, if COVID-19 case numbers continue their current trend. But blanket rules such as the new 25km travel radius risk unnecessarily burdening the public.Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478392020-10-16T02:21:37Z2020-10-16T02:21:37ZHow’s your life under lockdown? Tweets tell the tale of how neighbourhoods compare<p>Melbourne has endured one of the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/is-melbourne-s-coronavirus-lockdown-really-the-longest-in-the-world-here-s-how-other-countries-stack-up">strictest COVID-19 lockdowns</a> in the world. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/coronavirus-restrictions-victorian-government-may-extend-5km/12732058">Public health announcements</a> indicate restrictions are set to continue despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-14-day-rolling-average-of-5-new-daily-cases-is-the-wrong-trigger-for-easing-melbourne-lockdown-lets-look-at-under-investigation-cases-instead-147906">experts warning</a> that Victoria is unlikely to get the daily average number of new cases down to just five in the near future. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.monash.edu/mada/research/evaluating-neighbourhood-sentiment">Our research</a> shows some people lack access to the essential services and amenities that support healthy and liveable places during the lockdown. We tracked 80,000 location-based tweets from January 2020 to September 2020 to understand how people are responding to Melbourne’s lockdowns. </p>
<p>Social media such as <a href="https://twitter.com/">Twitter</a> can provide a window into how people are emotionally managing during the lockdown and how well their neighbourhood meets their needs in this challenging time. This is particularly important as policy conversations turn to the importance of 20-minute neighbourhoods and living locally in the post-COVID city.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Research has shown the inequality of neighbourhood access to services and amenities can have serious <a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-and-cycling-to-work-makes-commuters-happier-and-more-productive-117819">physical</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">mental health</a> impacts. These differences raise issues of equity and whether <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/10/the-new-covid-normal-is-victoria-ready-to-come-out-of-lockdown">responses are proportionate</a> to the threat. It also means some neighbourhoods are ill-equipped to support the anticipated increase in people working from home during and after the pandemic.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-are-full-of-parks-so-why-are-we-looking-to-golf-courses-for-more-open-space-147559">Our cities are full of parks, so why are we looking to golf courses for more open space?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Life under lockdown isn’t the same for all</h2>
<p>On August 2, the Victorian government established strict restrictions on movement including a 5km travel bubble and curfew in Melbourne. In a cross-discipline collaboration between Monash’s Art, Design & Architecture and Data Futures Institute, our analysis of Twitter data focused on neighbourhood amenity and opportunity at this point. Our findings reveal the differences in resident well-being across different suburbs during lockdown.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Entrance to Luna Park in St Kilda" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363113/original/file-20201013-17-fxgfaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents of the suburb of St Kilda have been more likely to keep smiling under lockdown than the city as a whole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexa Gower</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the introduction of the first lockdown, the number of tweets posted about people’s local neighbourhoods increased by 158% compared to January and February 2020. This highlights how the lockdown turned people’s attention towards their residential area. It also indicates neighbourhood amenities became more significant for people who are no longer commuting to work in Melbourne’s CBD or other places. </p>
<p>People living in areas with poor access to amenities expressed higher levels of negative sentiment about their neighbourhood during the lockdown periods. Sentiment in these areas dropped three times in the year. There was a 13% drop in sentiment in March when the first lockdown came in and another 15.5% fall with the June lockdown 2.0. Sentiment continued to fall by 30% in August. </p>
<p>In contrast, tweets about amenity-rich areas revealed a 4% rise in positive sentiment. These residents detailed how their neighbourhood amenity helped their well-being during this time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing trends in positive sentiments in tweets from high- and low-amenity areas" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363614/original/file-20201015-21-1apbv62.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We see contrasting trends in sentiment in tweets from high-amenity and low-amenity neighbourhoods under lockdown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-posts-show-that-people-are-profoundly-sad-and-are-visiting-parks-to-cheer-up-139953">Twitter posts show that people are profoundly sad – and are visiting parks to cheer up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Missing aspects of going to work</h2>
<p>We also see that not everyone is as supportive of remote working arrangements as some <a href="https://theconversation.com/remote-working-is-here-to-stay-but-that-doesnt-mean-the-end-of-offices-or-city-centres-145414">studies claim</a>. Before the lockdown, tweets about places in Melbourne often highlighted satisfaction with working environments. These tweets spoke of walking between meetings, and places to gather and eat out: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Beautiful day in the city – just perfect for walking between meetings and lunch at the cafe. (Outer Melbourne, March 6).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Under lockdown, the number of tweets with negative sentiment about residential neighbourhoods throughout Melbourne increased by 124%. People posted negative opinions about what was missing from their local area and expressed longing for the amenities found in their workplace. People also missed their daily commute and the opportunity to walk between places outside their neighbourhood: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Although I’m loving working from home, one thing that I really miss is my walk to the office from the station. (Outer Melbourne, July 9). </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Moreover, tweets highlighted that some people don’t have enough space to work from home </p>
<blockquote>
<p>When I am working at home I’m currently sharing space with the indoor clothes hangers. (Outer Melbourne, April 16).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>These tweets remind us of the challenges some people face when working from home and indicate how commuting enables access to amenities that their neighbourhoods lack. </p>
<h2>Some areas make work from home a joy</h2>
<p>In comparison, tweets that expressed positive neighbourhood sentiment during the lockdown referred specifically to the benefits of parks and public facilities. In high-amenity areas, people expressed gratitude for these places. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Social isolating done right … I’m so #grateful to have these sort of parks right on my doorstep so I can exercise both me and the dogs 🙂🐕 (Inner Melbourne, March 29)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Being able to experience the natural environment improved their mood. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I went outside for a walk and took a moment to stand in a spot where the onshore bay breeze could freely hit me in the face while I listened to <em>Sign ☮️ the Times</em>. I needed that so badly. #starfishandcoffee’ (Inner Melbourne, April 16)</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">Parks and green spaces are important for our mental health – but we need to make sure that everyone can benefit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Some were happy to spend more time locally even when lockdown measures had eased. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The joys of working from home and walking to support our local coffee shop. Then you are pleasantly surprised by Teddy and his marmalade skills. Just sweet! (Outer Melbourne, May 27)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Increased positive sentiment about local amenity continued longer into the year than negative tweets, highlighting the broad benefits local amenities provide to communities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing sentiment trends for Sandringham, St Kilda and Greater Melbourne." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=139&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363616/original/file-20201015-15-13kaufp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=174&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How people fare under lockdown has a lot to do with where they live.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Work to be done on neighbourhood amenity</h2>
<p>Comparing Melbourne’s Twitter data across different places provides insight into the impacts of neighbourhood amenity on resident well-being during lockdown. It also shows the uneven access to important neighbourhood facilities in different places and the consequences for remote working. </p>
<p>The lockdown experience highlights that if Melbourne is serious about achieving a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods, there is immediate work to do to improve access to everyday amenities and support remote working.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">Reclaiming the streets? We all can have a say in the 'new normal' after coronavirus</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Grodach receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dickson Lukose receives funding from Australian Research Council, and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoff Webb receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexa Gower and Liton Kamruzzaman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The differences in sentiment in areas of high and low neighbourhood amenity have been clear under Melbourne’s tough COVID restrictions. It’s further evidence of the impacts of inequity on well-being.Alexa Gower, Postdoctoral researcher, Monash UniversityCarl Grodach, Professor and Director of Urban Planning & Design, Monash UniversityDickson Lukose, Professor and Senior Data Scientist, Data Futures Institute, Monash UniversityGeoff Webb, Professor and Research Director, Data Futures Institute, Monash UniversityLiton Kamruzzaman, Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1475592020-10-13T18:47:08Z2020-10-13T18:47:08ZOur cities are full of parks, so why are we looking to golf courses for more open space?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362899/original/file-20201012-17-1t64n1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C276%2C1493%2C1089&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wendy Walls</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recent <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/locals-want-covid-normal-to-include-turning-golf-course-into-parkland-20200925-p55zea.html">opening of a golf course to the public</a> in the inner north of Melbourne caused a flurry of excitement. Since then, thousands of visitors have explored the expanse of manicured rolling greens, fairways and rough. Under <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/second-step-coronavirus-road-to-recovery">COVID restrictions</a> that require Melbournians to stay within 5km of their homes, access to a very large and beautiful open space has provided welcome relief from the <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/2020/sep/map-shows-melbourne-parks-will-struggle-in-next-stage-of-lockdown">well-worn tracks</a> up and down local creeks and around local ovals. </p>
<p>But beyond just exploring somewhere new, the meticulously crafted landscape of the Northcote public golf course offers a rare experience in Melbourne’s ever more densely developed inner suburbs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/340-000-melburnians-have-little-or-no-parkland-within-5km-of-their-home-144069">340,000 Melburnians have little or no parkland within 5km of their home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The past six months of lockdowns have sparked many discussions about our cities and lifestyles. And the importance of local parks has come to the fore. There are issues of <a href="https://theconversation.com/340-000-melburnians-have-little-or-no-parkland-within-5km-of-their-home-144069">equity in access to parks</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-urban-density-is-good-for-health-even-during-a-pandemic-142108">walkability</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-might-covid-19-change-what-australians-want-from-their-homes-145626">housing</a>, and the measured health and well-being <a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-posts-show-that-people-are-profoundly-sad-and-are-visiting-parks-to-cheer-up-139953">effects of being outdoors</a>. </p>
<p>These target-driven discussions fit with the dominant planning methods of Australian cities. From <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/428908/Creating-a-more-liveable-Melbourne.pdf">walking times</a> to <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/community/greening-the-city/urban-forest/Pages/urban-forest-strategy.aspx">tree cover targets</a>, function has long dominated quality when defining urban open space. But this planning approach to open space significantly limits how parks are conceived. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1305077434954383366"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why the pressure on golf courses?</h2>
<p>Now, as people swarm to urban parks and gardens in record numbers, we need to give open space the same status as other valued urban assets such as roads and rail. And we need to work out what government, the private sector, design professionals and the community can contribute to create better public open space over the next decade.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/twitter-posts-show-that-people-are-profoundly-sad-and-are-visiting-parks-to-cheer-up-139953">Twitter posts show that people are profoundly sad – and are visiting parks to cheer up</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Returning to the Northcote golf course, a community group is <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/locals-want-covid-normal-to-include-turning-golf-course-into-parkland-20200925-p55zea.html">lobbying for ongoing community access</a>. It’s part of a wider discussion about the future of urban golf courses across Australia. In <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-18/marrickville-golf-club-vote-to-go-before-inner-west-council/12672562">Sydney</a>, the Inner West Council recently <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/marrickville-golf-club-plan-to-turn-18-holes-into-9-rejected/news-story/07deba9839c2d88bf682a729f9808d53">voted down</a> a hotly debated plan to give over half the Marrickville golf course to public green space. In <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/things-to-see-and-do/council-venues-and-precincts/parks/victoria-park">Brisbane</a>, the Victoria Park Golf Course is being converted to public parkland.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1308355184968347648"}"></div></p>
<p>Urban golf courses are in the spotlight because of their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/11/undraining-the-swamp-how-rewilders-have-reclaimed-golf-courses-and-waterways">rarity as large green open spaces with mature plantings</a>. The golfing community is <a href="https://www.australiangolfdigest.com.au/a-battle-for-survival/">under pressure</a> to justify why so much precious city space is being reserved for their sport. </p>
<p>This discussion masks the underlying issue of inadequate urban planning. Successive governments have failed to set aside enough open space to cater for population growth.</p>
<p>For decades, the planning of our cities has occurred through growth models that give priority to economic development. Missing are significant large parks – the modern equivalents of the much-loved colonial layers of the Domains in <a href="https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/Visit/The-Domain">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/heritage/places/national/melbourne-domain-parkland-memorial-precinct">Melbourne</a>, <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/parks/hyde-park">Hyde Park</a>, <a href="https://whatson.melbourne.vic.gov.au/things-to-do/royal-park">Royal Park</a> or <a href="https://www.bgpa.wa.gov.au/kings-park">Kings Park</a> – to offset this growth. </p>
<p>The issue of open space quality becomes even more pressing when we turn to the outer suburbs. Lacking access to bays and beaches, the outer suburbs <a href="https://www.foreground.com.au/parks-places/garden-cities-no-australias-leafy-urban-centres-pressure/">no longer have</a> the “Australian dream” of the quarter-acre block as a counterbalance. Houses are constructed gutter to gutter, cars crowd the front yards, and the local park is often a footy oval with a playground. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vanishing-australian-backyards-leave-us-vulnerable-to-the-stresses-of-city-life-81479">Vanishing Australian backyards leave us vulnerable to the stresses of city life</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Playground in front of a football oval." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362883/original/file-20201012-20-hbg3rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">For many suburbs, their most substantial public open space is a football oval and playground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BaroogaFootballGround%26Playground.JPG">Mattinbgn/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time to make open space a priority</h2>
<p>COVID and the slowing economy provide an important opportunity to rethink our models for open space. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">Reclaiming the streets? We all can have a say in the 'new normal' after coronavirus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We need to challenge the binaries of competing values – public versus private, environment versus community – that structure our cities. Our parks should not emerge through a debate over the best use of limited green space: biodiversity, community gardens, bike paths, wetlands, sport facilities, playgrounds and dog walking. None of these agendas are wrong, but there is a limit to how much space can be shared. </p>
<p>There are, of course, many examples of councils wanting to add more open green space. But it is important to have larger-scale and longer-term perspectives that can operate independently of local and state politics. </p>
<p>Global examples of open-space governance reveal shifts towards alternative funding models and public-private relationships for delivering quality, not just quantity. For example, in New York, the NGO <a href="http://designtrust.org/">Design Trust for Public Space</a> works across government, community groups and the private sector to guide public space development. In Australia, the appointment of a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/public-spaces-minister-plans-to-buy-sydney-s-forgotten-land-for-open-space-20190504-p51k0z.html">minister for public spaces</a> in Sydney and the <a href="https://resilientmelbourne.com.au/living-melbourne/">Living Melbourne</a> strategy both acknowledge the importance of overarching spatial governance. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-minister-for-public-spaces-is-welcome-now-here-are-ten-priorities-for-action-115152">New minister for public spaces is welcome – now here are ten priorities for action</a>
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<p>The private sector is responsible too. Enabling large and high-quality open space across our cities means reviewing our expectations of funding and exploring new models led by the private sector. This includes not just funding construction but finding cash for ongoing park maintenance. </p>
<p>COVID has highlighted why the scale of open space is important. It’s needed for maintaining distance between users but also for providing a sense of escape from increasing urban density, compounded by the many hours spent indoors. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-radical-nature-based-agenda-would-help-society-overcome-the-psychological-effects-of-coronavirus-147324">A radical nature-based agenda would help society overcome the psychological effects of coronavirus</a>
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<p>It is widely recognised that an experience of <a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-and-our-brains-how-ecology-and-mental-health-go-together-in-our-cities-126760">nature is valuable for health and well-being</a>. It’s now time to link this directly to a diversity of high-quality park experiences. </p>
<p>All parks have not been created equally. Let’s use this moment to determine a more ambitious future for our urban open spaces.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All parks are not equal. The response to the opening of golf courses to the public during the COVID pandemic shows the quality of green open space is a big issue for city residents.Wendy Walls, Lecturer in Landscape Architecture, The University of MelbourneJillian Walliss, Associate Professor in Landscape Architecture, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1473562020-10-02T05:07:14Z2020-10-02T05:07:14ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Melbourne, manufacturing, and the budget<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>This week the pair discuss the first of three US presidential debates, the report into aged care tabled this week, the Melbourne lockdown, and what is likely to be in the budget handed down on Tuesday.</p>
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</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1472542020-10-02T05:03:18Z2020-10-02T05:03:18Z5 charts on how COVID-19 is hitting Australia’s young adults hard<p>The following five charts provide a snapshot of how COVID-19 is affecting Australians aged 18-24. Though the health impacts of the coronavirus fall most on the elderly, it is young adults that have been hit hardest by the economic and psychological costs of the pandemic response.</p>
<p>The data for the charts comes <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/search/result?paper=3504613">from results gleaned</a> from two major surveys run by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne. </p>
<p>The first is the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/3127664/HILDA-Statistical-Report-2019.pdf">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia</a> (HILDA) survey. Since 2001 this survey has collected information from about 17,000 Australians each year. </p>
<p>The second is the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/covid-19-tracker">Taking the Pulse of the Nation</a> (TTPN) survey. The Melbourne Institute has been running this bi-weekly survey since March, polling 1,200 people over the age of 18, to track Australians’ expectations and attitudes towards the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<h2>1. Huge job losses</h2>
<p>Between March and April, ABS figures show almost <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/apr-2020">600,000 of Australian workers</a> – about 3% of the workforce – lost their jobs. Our data shows these losses were concentrated among young workers, with almost one in three (28%) workers aged 18-24 losing their jobs.</p>
<p>While things have since improved (with the end of lockdowns in most states), the employment rate of young Australian adults remains just under 60% (though with distinct state differences). </p>
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<p>On top of that, half of workers aged 18-24 who managed to keep their jobs during the pandemic reported having had their regular working hours cut. This compares to a third of workers aged 25 or more. </p>
<p>The disproportionate impact on youth employment is likely driven by two factors. </p>
<p>First, more young adults work in industries directly affected by border closures, travel restrictions and social-distancing measures (hospitality, retail, culture and leisure). Past <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/search/result?paper=3387039">Melbourne Institute research</a> indicates more than half of all workers in the most-affected industries are aged 18-24 (compared with 19% aged 25-34, and less than 12% aged 35-44).</p>
<p>Second, half of workers aged 18-24 are on casual contracts (79% in the most-affected industries). Having little-to-no employment protection, they have been most expendable during the downturn. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-neurotic-less-agreeable-less-conscientious-how-job-insecurity-shapes-your-personality-146019">More neurotic, less agreeable, less conscientious: how job insecurity shapes your personality</a>
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</em>
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<h2>2. The Victorian divergence</h2>
<p>The previous chart tells the “average” Australian story. But there has been a distinct divergence between Victoria and the rest of Australia since late July. With Melbourne’s “second wave” and subsequent restrictions, the employment rate for Victorians aged 18-24 remains at just 46%, compared with 45% in April.</p>
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<p>In contrast, the employment rate for those aged 18-24 in other states has bounced back strongly. This is encouraging, suggesting the negative effects of COVID-19 on Victorian youth employment may also be relatively quickly reversed. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-suffers-most-from-melbournes-extended-lockdown-hint-they-are-not-necessarily-particularly-vocal-145938">Who suffers most from Melbourne’s extended lockdown? Hint: they are not necessarily particularly vocal </a>
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<h2>3. Mental distress has skyrocketed</h2>
<p>Our data shows a significant increase in the number of young Australians reporting mental distress.</p>
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<p>Almost a quarter (23%) of those aged 18-24 report high levels of mental distress, compared to 9% in 2017. Only those aged 25-34 report more mental distress, due to the stresses felt by <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/search/result?paper=3456866">employed parents with primary school-aged children</a>.</p>
<h2>4. Financial stress varies</h2>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, the majority of people (63%) who have lost their job due to the pandemic report high levels of financial stress.</p>
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<p>These people represented about 40% of the unemployed in our survey. What is surprising is that our respondents who considered themselves unemployed for other reasons were, on average, less stressed than those with jobs. This likely reflects the relief existing Newstart recipients felt due to the doubling of the welfare payment during the pandemic. </p>
<h2>5. Young women more affected</h2>
<p>Young women are much more likely than men to report losing their job due to COVID-19 – 45% of unemployed females aged 18-24, compared with 34% of unemployed males. </p>
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<p>Our data further indicate young women are more likely to report high levels of mental distress – 24% of females, compared with 21% of males). </p>
<p>These larger effects likely reflect women’s greater representation in the industries directly affected by COVID-19, and increased caring responsibilities during the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Kabatek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our data shows 28% workers aged 18-24 lost their jobs due to COVID-19.Jan Kabatek, Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1458432020-09-10T20:08:28Z2020-09-10T20:08:28ZVital Signs: batch testing and contact tracing are the two keys to stop the lockdown yo-yo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357366/original/file-20200910-20-6w2whm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=330%2C9%2C5686%2C2602&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Back in March and April I (<a href="https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-265-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686">and many other economists</a>) argued for lockdowns to get COVID-19 infections under control and to give health systems time to put in place testing and tracing regimes to contain the virus in the longer term.</p>
<p>This was done pretty effectively everywhere in Australia except for Victoria. But if things go to plan, all states will be back on the same page by the end of October. </p>
<p>Or will they?</p>
<p>Concerns about Victoria’s contact-tracing regime remain, and although there is a lot of testing, how it is being done might not be as effective as possible.</p>
<p>More still needs to be done to avoid the “yo-yoing” Victorian premier Dan Andrews has warned about – in which relaxation of distancing rules leads to yet another outbreak big enough to require reimposing restrictions.</p>
<p>There is room for not just incremental improvement but dramatic improvement of testing and tracing.</p>
<h2>Keeping the reproduction rate below 1</h2>
<p>The key to avoiding the need for lockdown (unless and until a vaccine is widely deployed) is to keep what epidemiologist call the “effective” reproduction rate (R) below 1. </p>
<p>That is, on average each person infected with the virus must give it to less than one other person (R<1). </p>
<p>If R>1 infections will grow exponentially, overwhelming human contact-tracing systems and eventually the hospital system.</p>
<p>To keep the reproduction rate below 1 requires testing and contact tracing to be incredibly fast and effective.</p>
<h2>Effective contact tracing</h2>
<p>Victoria’s contact-tracing system is generally regarded as having <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-signals-a-long-battle-as-the-experts-descend-into-the-weeds-of-victorias-modelling-145734">performed poorly</a> compared with systems such as in New South Wales. </p>
<p>The clunky system includes notifications of new infections <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-too-swamped-by-first-wave-to-consider-it-fix-for-contact-tracers-20200908-p55tnj.html">still being sent by fax</a>.</p>
<p>Only now is the state moving to adopt a more automated approach, using a data management system developed by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/08/salesforce-to-digitise-victorias-covid-contact-tracing-after-federal-criticism">IT giant Salesforce</a>. The Victorian government rejected the system earlier in the year, on the grounds the state was too swamped by the first wave to implement and bed down a new system.</p>
<p>My University of NSW colleague, epidemiologist Raina MacIntyre, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/critics-of-victoria-s-contact-tracing-system-misunderstand-some-key-facts-20200908-p55tju.html">has observed</a> that Victoria’s health system was less prepared than NSW because of 20 years of governments “stripping the health system bare”, and that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>No health workforce in the world, no matter how organised, well-resourced and efficient, can do manual contact tracing successfully when an epidemic becomes too large.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We could go down the more aggressive digital contact-tracing path akin to South Korea. But as the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f00483e1-d5f9-4ef4-8dac-01b89cf50ec9">Financial Times has noted</a>, the Korean systems:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>include an extensive trawl of data from other sources, such as security cameras and credit card transactions, as well as smartphone apps that use wireless signals to detect who might have encountered an infected individual.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Given the relatively low voluntary uptake of the Australian government’s COVIDSafe smartphone tracing app, getting enough people to use it to make it effective will also require strong incentives – or compulsion. </p>
<p>Now, I’m strongly for such incentives (as well as smarter testing). But given the amount of bedwetting about the existing COVIDSafe app from the libertarian right and some elements of the soft left (who are paranoid about every smart light bulb spying on us), this is unlikely to happen.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-modelling-tells-us-the-coronavirus-app-will-need-a-big-take-up-economics-tells-us-how-to-get-it-136944">Vital Signs: Modelling tells us the coronavirus app will need a big take-up, economics tells us how to get it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Batch testing</h2>
<p>The other crucial tool to keep R below 1 is efficient and large-scale testing.</p>
<p>Australia did well early in the pandemic ramping up testing capacity. Test results have been typically returned within <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/how-long-should-it-take-to-get-a-coronavirus-covid19-test-result/12545150">a few days</a>, though there have also been reports of results taking <a href="https://theconversation.com/got-a-covid-19-test-in-victoria-and-still-havent-got-your-results-heres-what-may-be-happening-and-what-to-do-142821">more than five days</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-496" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/496/0598668018a5666e15da133b092ce9a6dc3b6534/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>What we have not done is embrace the benefits of targeted batch testing. </p>
<p>Batch testing is a way to cost-effectively test large numbers of people <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-65-million-142255">by pooling together</a> samples – say by postcode. </p>
<p>If the pooled sample comes back negative, then everyone who contributed to the batch is cleared. If it is positive, more targeted testing is done, using smaller batches (by suburb, then residential block, then by household). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50-000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-6-5-million-142255">Vital Signs: We're testing 50,000 Australians a day for COVID-19. Should it be 6.5 million?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50-000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-6-5-million-142255">I’ve noted before</a>, the optimal batch size depends on the base rate of the virus in the community. But this general idea has been around since World War II and is well understood. It is a way to stretch resources to test more of the population more often.</p>
<p>For Australia at this point of the pandemic, this kind of testing would enable rapid detection and isolation of any new infections, allowing social and economic activity to get back to a new normal. </p>
<h2>The strategy going forward</h2>
<p>Once the Victorian outbreak is under control, we need to reopen Australia’s internal borders. Then we can start thinking about easing external border restrictions with places such as New Zealand.</p>
<p>All of this will require keeping the reproduction rate below 1, which means catching any new infections fast. Really fast.</p>
<p>Yo-yoing lockdowns are costly and to be avoided if at all possible.</p>
<p>Automated contact tracing could help a lot, as could smart and aggressive batch testing. We should be doing both until a vaccine is deployed.</p>
<p>Some commentators talk about “living with this virus” which is basically code for letting it rip. Instead, what we need to do is engage in “relentless suppression” to keep the reproduction rate low and our economy open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Yo-yoing lockdowns are costly and to be avoided if at all possible. Here is what we can do to dramatically improve testing and tracing.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1458602020-09-09T10:32:48Z2020-09-09T10:32:48ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Jodie McVernon on Melbourne’s modelling, a Covid vaccine, and the role of experts in a crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357151/original/file-20200909-18-8le9vc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=83%2C123%2C1414%2C707&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.doherty.edu.au/">Doherty Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In light of Victoria’s cautious roadmap out of lockdown, which some experts applaud and others believe is unnecessarily conservative,
the modelling underpinning the decisions is under close scrutiny.</p>
<p>University of Melbourne Professor Jodie McVernon is director of epidemiology at the Doherty Institute, and a modelling expert. </p>
<p>She tells the podcast, “I think the broad qualitative conclusions of the model would have been reached by really any kind of model formulation - that the lower numbers can be driven down, the less likely a resurgence would be”.</p>
<p>This week saw a pause in the progress towards a hoped-for Oxford vaccine, when a clinical trial produced an unexplained illness in one participants.</p>
<p>But McVernon remains optimistic. “I think we will get vaccines. I don’t think we’ll get perfect ones, but I’m hoping we’ll get useful ones – because without vaccines, we only have behaviour to prevent this disease. … So I think [a vaccine will] be one of a suite of things that we’ll be using into the future to control the spread of Covid.”</p>
<p>The pandemic has seen ‘experts’, including health officials and academics, come centre stage as public figures – as policy heroes but, latterly, also targets for some critics who think their voices are carrying too much influence.</p>
<p>“I would have to say I’m a very reluctantly public figure,” McVernon says.</p>
<p>“[I] was convinced by others early on that it is important …in these times of uncertainty that people are reassured by having the evidence explained.</p>
<p>"If we do have expert knowledge and we can help to clarify things for the public - I think that’s an important responsibility. Part of having knowledge is sharing that knowledge.”</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the latest in coronavirus developments with Professor Jodie McVernonMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456212020-09-07T03:18:11Z2020-09-07T03:18:11ZTracking Victoria’s job losses: there’s no road to recovery without containing COVID-19<p>The good news from Victoria’s road map to recovery is the stage 4 restrictions imposed in July are working, albeit more slowly than anyone wants. </p>
<p>The evidence also suggests the Victorian government’s “slow but sure” approach to easing those rules is the right strategy. Unless the risk of COVID-19 is suppressed, relaxing restrictions will not produce the economic recovery we want.</p>
<p>Under the plan announced by Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday, metropolitan Melbourne’s stage 4 restrictions are being extended till at least September 28, with some minor relaxations of curfew and exercise rules. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Then – if the number of new COVID-19 cases is fewer than 50 a day – there will be further relaxation of public gatherings and home visits. Child care centres will reopen, and about 100,000 workers in construction, delivery, manufacturing and gardening will be allowed to go back to work.</p>
<p>More substantial resumption of businesses activity won’t occur until at least October 26 – and only then if the average number of new cases over the previous two weeks is less than five a day. </p>
<p>If that is achieved, the government will allow most retail shops to open, and cafes and restaurants to serve patrons sitting outdoors. Hairdressers will be back in business, but not other beauty and personal care services. </p>
<p>From November 23, if there have been no new cases for 14 days, all retail will reopen, and hospitality restrictions will relax further. </p>
<p>For regional Victoria, Andrews said, it would likely be just be a matter of weeks before moving to “a very different range of settings compared to metropolitan Melbourne”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A closed shop in Melbourne" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Melbourne cafes and restaurants won’t be allowed to seat customers before late October.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andy Brownbill/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Blaming the lockdown, not the pandemic</h2>
<p>Critics of the Victorian government (and lockdowns generally) have argued its containment measures have caused more economic and social damage than would have been caused by the virus itself. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbournes-second-lockdown-spells-death-for-small-businesses-here-are-3-things-government-can-do-to-save-them-142173">Melbourne's second lockdown spells death for small businesses. Here are 3 things government can do to save them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But others argue the short-term economic cost is more than justified by the longer term benefits. They point to evidence suggesting the economy will only recover once COVID-19 is eliminated and the community again feels confident to socialise and shop as before.</p>
<p>University of Chicago economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, for example, have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3631180">analysed consumer behaviour</a> in neighbouring regions with different social distancing restrictions in the US. They found voluntary changes in behaviour to reduce risks of catching COVID-19 were the major driver of lower economic activity. Government-imposed restrictions, they calculated, accounted for less than 12% of the total effect.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-cost-of-lockdowns-is-nowhere-near-as-big-as-we-have-been-told-142710">Vital Signs: the cost of lockdowns is nowhere near as big as we have been told</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Victoria’s experience may provide more evidence on what is really driving the slowdown in economic activity. </p>
<p>Specifically, we can examine whether decreases in the number jobs appear to correspond more to growth in the COVID-19 caseload or to the timing of imposition of government restrictions.</p>
<p>The chart below displays how Victoria’s employment has tracked compared with the rest of Australia since the initial rise in COVID-19 cases in mid-March. It shows the difference (in percentage terms) between the decline in jobs in Victoria and the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>A number above zero means Victoria has lost a smaller share of its jobs than other states. A number below zero means a larger proportion of jobs have been lost. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="pZM2G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pZM2G/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>As the chart shows, Victoria was following closely with other states till late April, then lost slightly more jobs through to late June. </p>
<p>But once COVID-19 re-emerged in late June, job losses in Victoria accelerated. By early August Victoria had lost about 4% more jobs than other states.</p>
<h2>Job losses began before restrictions</h2>
<p>The chart below shows how job numbers in accommodation and food services and arts and recreation services have changed in Victoria relative to other states. </p>
<p>These are the two sectors most affected by COVID-19, due to high levels of personal contact between and among customers and staff. The big question is to what extent the effect on employment in those sectors has been due to government rules or consumer behaviour.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="UNvmn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UNvmn/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>The chart shows Victoria’s jobs changes in these two sectors were relatively consistent with the the rest of the country until June. (Arts and recreation did slightly better, food and accommodation slightly worse.)</p>
<p>The situation began to worsen in June with Victoria’s second-wave outbreak. This happened even before the Victorian government imposed stage 3 restriction on July 4.</p>
<p>In the two weeks prior to going back to stage 3, Victoria went from an average of about 16 new cases a day to 72 cases a day. Over the same period, the number of jobs in Victoria in accommodation and food services fell by 3%, and in arts and recreation services by 4.7%, compared with the rest of Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303">The costs of the shutdown are overestimated -- they're outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As well, after the imposition of stage 3 restrictions the pace of decrease in jobs in Victoria was relatively steady. It matched the rise in COVID-19 cases (to an average of more than 450 a day in early August). Job losses do not seem to have been bunched around the dates restrictions were imposed, as might be expected if those restrictions were the main explanation for job losses.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that while the Victorian government’s path to remove restrictions will undoubtedly influence the level of economic activity in the months ahead, relaxing restrictions immediately would not bring the economy back to where we were in March. </p>
<p>It would only make the road to full recovery much slower and more uncertain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Relaxing restrictions too soon would only cost more jobs in the long run.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1453872020-09-02T19:59:29Z2020-09-02T19:59:29ZOpen COVID ‘cold spots’ first: a way out of lockdown for Melbourne<p>Up to now the focus has been on managing “hot spots” in the COVID lockdowns of Melbourne and Victoria. We have identified four key factors that might help explain why we see high rates of COVID-19 cases in some parts of the city. Our analysis also suggests a phased easing of lockdown could start with reopening “cold spots” with few or no cases of COVID-19. </p>
<p>And reopening the state as soon as reasonably possible is of concern from many perspectives. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-pressures-national-cabinet-to-agree-to-hotspot-definition-145262">federal government</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/business-leaders-seek-clearer-picture-on-plan-to-reopen-economy-20200830-p55qo8.html">business groups</a> have led calls to ease lockdowns. </p>
<p>Mental health experts are also very concerned about an <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/307435">impending mental health crisis</a>. Others are warning about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-help-required-the-crisis-in-family-violence-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-144126">growth in family violence</a>. There are also growing concerns about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disadvantaged-students-may-have-lost-1-month-of-learning-during-covid-19-shutdown-but-the-government-can-fix-it-140540">gap in education of young children</a> and their <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-education-questions-the-victorian-government-should-answer-at-the-covid-19-inquiry-144933">mental health risks arising from isolation</a>.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison has expressed frustration at closures of schools and state and territory borders. He has <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-pressures-national-cabinet-to-agree-to-hotspot-definition-145262">asked the national cabinet to agree on a definition of hot spots</a> used to justify closures. This article raises a related idea with a focus on Melbourne: rather than waiting for hot spots to fade out, cold spots could possibly be reopened earlier.</p>
<h2>Some parts are hit much harder than others</h2>
<p>Our recent <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/news/opening-up-melbourne-again">paper</a> highlighted the wide disparities in <a href="https://covidlive.com.au/report/active-cases-by-lga">numbers of active COVID cases</a> per <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0">1,000 population across Melbourne</a>. Local government areas (LGAs) in the north and west have had much higher numbers, relative to population, than those in the south and east.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mapping-covid-19-spread-in-melbourne-shows-link-to-job-types-and-ability-to-stay-home-143610">Mapping COVID-19 spread in Melbourne shows link to job types and ability to stay home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The chart below shows an encouraging picture. As <a href="https://covidlive.com.au/report/active-cases-by-lga">active case numbers</a> fell between August 14 and 28, the north-west/south-east disparity narrowed. Numbers fell a little faster in the north and west. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing rate of active COVID-19 cases per 1,000 people by local government area across Melbourne from August 14-28" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355928/original/file-20200902-16-mzdbgr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in rate of active COVID-19 cases across Melbourne by local government area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: covidlive.com.au, ABS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the 16 lowest case rates (as of August 28) remained in the south and east. The nine highest were in the north and west. </p>
<p>A continued fall in case numbers across Melbourne will eventually justify reopening across the city. But the current disparity between north-west and south-east suggests reopening at different times in different places is a live option. Cold spots – groups of LGAs with the lowest case rates – could open sooner.</p>
<h2>What factors might explain the divide?</h2>
<p>Seeking to gain insights that might explain the differences between areas, we identified 30 variables for which census, population health, unemployment or other public data are readily available. A number of these variables were significantly correlated with active case numbers. </p>
<p>We found positive correlations (active case numbers increased along with these factors) for: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>population</p></li>
<li><p>population growth rate from 2011 to 2016</p></li>
<li><p>persons per dwelling</p></li>
<li><p>unemployment rate</p></li>
<li><p>adult smokers</p></li>
<li><p>fair or poor health. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>We found negative correlations (active numbers fell) for:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>English-only is spoken at home</p></li>
<li><p>population aged 80 or over</p></li>
<li><p>socioeconomic status, as shown by the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/seifa#:%7E:text=Socio%2DEconomic%20Indexes%20for%20Areas%20(SEIFA)%20is%20a%20product,from%20the%20five%2Dyearly%20Census.">SEIFA Index</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/your-local-train-station-can-predict-health-and-death-54946">Your local train station can predict health and death</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Portrait of elderly couple at home" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355961/original/file-20200902-22-60ap6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The correlation between areas with many people over the age of 80 and low rates of COVID-19 suggests those living at home took care to protect themselves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-portrait-elder-couple-home-345945743">Lopolo/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Four variables explained 63.9% of the variance in active case numbers by LGA as at August 14. Factors such as the unemployment rate, SEIFA Index and fair/poor health dropped out, as these were significantly correlated with other retained variables.</p>
<p>The four retained variables were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>resident population – a larger LGA population is associated with more active case numbers </p></li>
<li><p>percentage speaking English-only at home – a lower proportion is associated with more active cases, emphasising the importance of language-appropriate COVID messaging</p></li>
<li><p>percentage of the population aged 80 and over – a larger proportion is associated with fewer active cases, suggesting good risk awareness in this vulnerable age group (although the impacts in many aged care homes have been shocking)</p></li>
<li><p>percentage of smokers – a higher rate is associated with larger active case numbers, perhaps suggesting respiratory vulnerability and/or lower risk awareness of this group.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>As active case numbers have come down, the predicted impact of each of these four variables has also reduced. In combination, however, they still explain a similar proportion of the variance in active case numbers by LGA as in the peak period. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the effect of English-only spoken at home on the variance in active case numbers declined substantially between August 14 and 28. This trend suggests some success in language-appropriate messaging over that time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/multilingual-australia-is-missing-out-on-vital-covid-19-information-no-wonder-local-councils-and-businesses-are-stepping-in-141362">Multilingual Australia is missing out on vital COVID-19 information. No wonder local councils and businesses are stepping in</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Staged reopening poses issues for equity</h2>
<p>Of the four included variables, the effect of the proportion of adult smokers has shown the smallest relative improvement as active case numbers have fallen. At LGA level, adult smoking is highly correlated with unemployment rate (+), reported fair/poor health (+), productivity (-) and the SEIFA Index (-). </p>
<p>These linkages suggest the burden of spatial disadvantage is having a lingering impact on active case numbers. As a result, a staged re-opening would pose equity concerns.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Worker in high-viz jacket and hard hat smoking as he leans against a shipping container" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355959/original/file-20200902-18-18oyfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The correlation between rates of smoking and active COVID-19 cases is a pointer to the impacts of socioeconomic disadvantage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worker-cigarette-smoke-break-labour-takes-1746899129">JooFotia/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The growing economic costs and adverse impacts of lockdown on many already disadvantaged people underline the importance of opening up areas in Melbourne and Victoria as soon as possible. The costs are both personal and societal. A failure to halt the decline in well-being will have continuing serious consequences, adding to inequality in Australia.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">Why coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Early reopening of parts of Melbourne with the lowest active case numbers, which are concentrated in the south and east, is a policy option. However, action must then be taken to avoid reinforcing entrenched disadvantage in the north and west. </p>
<p>Early commitments by all levels of government to implementing the wide-ranging plans in the recently released <a href="https://www.nwmcitydeal.org.au/">North and West Melbourne City Deal Plan 2020-2040</a> would help. Good starting points for reducing disadvantage include upgrading mixed-use activity centres across the city’s north and west and immediately improving medium-capacity transit services in the <a href="https://suburbanrailloop.vic.gov.au/en">Suburban Rail Loop</a> corridor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stanley has received funding from the National Institute of Economic and Research to undertake research on infrastructure priorities in Melbourne's north.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janet Stanley has received funding for consulting work on Melbourne's growth, for the Municipal Association of Victoria</span></em></p>While the focus has been on containing ‘hot spots’ of COVID-19 outbreaks, understanding why some areas have few or no cases could point the way to a staged reopening that starts with these areas.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyJanet Stanley, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.