tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/new-zealand-elections-2020-86762/articlesNew Zealand elections 2020 – The Conversation2020-11-16T02:25:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1500732020-11-16T02:25:42Z2020-11-16T02:25:42ZThe numbers suggest the campaign for cannabis reform in NZ will outlive the generations that voted against it<p>Reactions to the result of the <a href="https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/referendums-results.html">cannabis referendum</a> were highly polarised. Some argued the majority verdict must be accepted. Others pointed to the narrow margin — 50.7% to 48.4% — as evidence that the issue is still alive politically.</p>
<p>The government, however, has seemingly signalled a desire to move on. Before the announcement of the special vote count that narrowed the election night margin considerably, the then justice minister, Andrew Little, <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123253543/referendum-result-cannabis-legalisation-abandoned-by-government-greens-wont-concede-defeat">said</a>:</p>
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<p>The electorate has spoken, they are uncomfortable with greater legalisation and […] decriminalisation of recreational cannabis. The New Zealand electorate is not ready for that, and I think we have to respect that.</p>
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<p>Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/cannabis-referendum-new-zealanders-decide-and-they-have-jacinda-ardern-says">echoed</a> those sentiments:</p>
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<p>When it comes to a referendum, a majority is a majority and so it hasn’t tipped the balance in terms of what we as a government will do. We gave our commitment to New Zealanders if it won the majority, we would progress legislation. If it didn’t, we wouldn’t.</p>
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<p>In the short term, such judgments are understandable. Legalising recreational cannabis use is not an issue a government might need on its policy agenda right now. But in the medium to long term, the wisdom of pushing the matter aside is questionable.</p>
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<h2>The age factor</h2>
<p>Referendums are crude devices and the idea of a “New Zealand electorate” that has collectively spoken is simplistic.</p>
<p>In reality, the electorate is made up of individuals with opinions on cannabis that are far more complex than voting yes or no could adequately express. In particular, the <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/cannabis/index.html">referendum question</a> did not allow a decriminalisation option. There is no basis for interpreting the result as ruling that out.</p>
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<p>As with the vote on Brexit in Britain, which the <a href="https://time.com/4381878/brexit-generation-gap-older-younger-voters/">old strongly supported</a> and the young strongly opposed, New Zealand’s cannabis referendum results were defined by age. </p>
<p>Post-election survey data provided by <a href="https://voxpoplabs.com/about/">Vox Pop Labs</a> for <a href="https://votecompass.tvnz.co.nz/">Vote Compass</a> suggest a majority of those over 50 voted against legalisation. A majority of those under 50 voted for it.</p>
<p>Given the narrowness of the margin, assuming preferences remain roughly the same by age and these data are reasonably accurate, it will not be long before generational replacement within the electorate produces a majority for legalisation and control.</p>
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<h2>Calls for a second vote</h2>
<p>Nor do referendums necessarily produce outcomes that are permanently binding. In 1993, New Zealanders voted for MMP, but there was a second (also successful) MMP referendum in 2011 — to “<a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/2982044/First-MMP-referendum-in-2011">kick the tyres</a>”, as the then prime minister, John Key, put it.</p>
<p>The Brexit vote was also close, and there was a strong campaign for a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-labour-referendum/uks-labour-says-it-will-back-call-for-second-brexit-referendum-idUSKCN1QE25U">second referendum</a> once the full implications of Britain withdrawing from the European Union became more apparent than they had been at the time of voting.</p>
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<p>A second referendum would likely have reversed the outcome, as more young people would have entered the electorate while many older people would have died in the interim.</p>
<p>The poor quality of debate and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-referendum-lies-boris-johnson-leave-campaign-remain-a8466751.html">widely publicised lies</a> leading up to the decisive vote also fuelled demands for a second Brexit referendum.</p>
<p>The cannabis debate never descended to Brexit levels, although there were <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/cannabis-referendum/123239460/did-misinformation-sway-cannabis-referendum-votes">accusations</a> the anti-legalisation camp used misinformation to support its cause. But there was also another contentious referendum topic (assisted dying), not to mention a general election, consuming media attention and crowding out informed debate.</p>
<h2>Another chance for change</h2>
<p>As well, the campaign in favour of change was ill-organised and ineffective, if not naive. The proposed legislation involved two concepts: legalisation and control. The most important of these was control, but the issue in many people’s minds came down to legalisation of what they believed to be a harmful and dangerous drug.</p>
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<p>Such a belief can only have been based on two implicit assumptions: that the existing law is effective in reducing harm and damage, and legalisation would increase the odds of harm and damage.</p>
<p>Neither of those assumptions has any basis in <a href="https://www.pmcsa.ac.nz/topics/cannabis/">evidence</a>. The real debate should have been about controlling various aspects of existing use: criminality, strength of product, age thresholds, taxation and health education.</p>
<p>Given that another referendum in the not-too-distant future could well have a different outcome, there are good reasons to continue the campaign for change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150073/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Vowles receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington and the New Zealand Electoral Commission. He acted as an academic advisor during the preparation and administration of Vote Compass 2020.</span></em></p>Like Brexit in the UK, cannabis reform in New Zealand fell into an age gap — given time, a second referendum would probably succeed.Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1494242020-11-05T18:30:20Z2020-11-05T18:30:20ZWho are Donald Trump’s supporters in New Zealand and what do we know about them?<p>The US presidential election may still be extremely close, but one thing is clear: those pundits and <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/02/biden_will_win_republicans_should_understand_why_144578.html">pollsters</a> who predicted Trump was in no position to win will be going back to the drawing board.</p>
<p>In any case, “<a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/11/03/americas-gettysburg-moment-even-if-defeated-trumpism-will-not-vanish/">Trumpism</a>” is unlikely to disappear even after he’s gone — including in New Zealand.</p>
<p>Hardcore Trump supporters in the US may make up as few as <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/18/five_tribes_of_american_voters_138390.html">12% of America’s registered voters</a>. But polls have consistently underestimated Trump’s numbers compared with actual election results. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html">Real Clear Politics</a> pre-election poll average had Joe Biden up by 7.2 points nationally, but as of November 5 he led by only 2.1 points. Perhaps there really is a “<a href="https://spectator.org/what-we-have-learned-so-far/">hidden Trump vote</a>”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in New Zealand, with Jacinda Ardern in charge of the country’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-zealands-most-diverse-ever-cabinet-improve-representation-of-women-and-minorities-in-general-149273">most diverse cabinet ever</a>, the prospect of a Trump-like leader might seem remote. However, in online surveys conducted by Stuff.co.nz and Massey University in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1177083X.2017.1355817">2017</a> and 2020, we found a significant minority in support of Trump.</p>
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<h2>Kiwis for Trump</h2>
<p>In mid-2017, 13% of respondents said they would have voted for Trump had they been able to, compared to a scientifically sampled <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kiwis-favour-clinton-over-trump-to-be-next-united-states-president/KX2TT7GP6EYFXCOJM4UYRSPNPM/">poll</a> in mid-2016 that found 9% support for Trump.</p>
<p>How to explain the difference? Trump’s victory in November 2016 may have boosted that support slightly. The Stuff/Massey survey is reader-initiated and non-representative, and may have over-represented disaffected conservatives. Or people may be more willing to indicate support for Trump online than by phone. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, there was a measurable level of support for Trump in New Zealand.</p>
<p>In the mid-2020 survey, we asked respondents if they hoped Trump would win or lose in the November election. This time, 11% said they hoped he would win (after weighting for gender due to the sample having a male bias of 61.2%).</p>
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<p>The Stuff/Massey survey sample also had a conservative bias, as 36.8% said they supported National — above where the party was polling at the time, and well above its election night result of 26.8%. </p>
<p>But let’s say roughly one in ten New Zealanders is a Trump supporter. Under New Zealand’s electoral system, that’s well above the threshold of 5% for a party to win parliamentary seats. </p>
<p>Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?</p>
<h2>Even demographic spread</h2>
<p>They are evenly spread across age-groups, but slightly higher (15.4%) in the 18-24 range. This may reflect a <a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/news/media-coverage/youth-and-satisfaction-democracy/">known phenomenon</a> in which populist leaders boost young people’s satisfaction with democracy — or, to put it another way, help to reverse the trend towards political disengagement in democracies.</p>
<p>Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/">found in the US</a> after the 2016 election.</p>
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<p>Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets. </p>
<p>Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result.</p>
<p>A whopping 92% of the Kiwi Trumpers said we should leave statues of figures from our colonial past where they are, compared to the 49.8% of those who hoped Trump would lose.</p>
<h2>National is the preferred party</h2>
<p>Very few Kiwi Trumpers identified with arch-populist Winston Peters, however. Only 4.9% of them said he is the party leader they felt closest to, perhaps because of his coalition with Labour after the 2017 election. They were more attached to National’s Judith Collins (46.6%) and ACT Party leader David Seymour (30.2%).</p>
<p>Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.</p>
<p>The far-right New Conservative Party’s supporters were only 1.2% of our sample, and that party won only 1.5% of the vote at the October election. But a clear majority of them (69%) supported Trump.</p>
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<p>In general, Kiwi Trumpers see society as more discontented, and politicians as less trustworthy, than the average New Zealander.</p>
<p>Some 47.5% of the Trump supporters endorsed conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 virus. For them, it was either “an invention of shadowy forces that want to control us” (11%) or “a biological weapon created by one of the world’s super-powers” (35.5%). </p>
<p>Only 7.7% of Trump opponents ticked either of those statements. And, overall, 85.8% of the sample agreed that the virus came from a natural source.</p>
<p>Moreover, only 11.7% of Trump supporters agreed the New Zealand government was taking the right approach to dealing with the economic impact of COVID-19, while
62% of Trump opponents agreed.</p>
<p>And 84% of the Kiwi Trumpers preferred the government take a “cautious and sceptical” approach to climate change, compared with 23.8% of opponents.</p>
<h2>Could a Trump emerge in NZ?</h2>
<p>Unsurprisingly, 54.6% of Kiwi Trumpers were in favour of New Zealand developing a closer alignment with the USA, compared with only 6.2% of Trump opponents. The vast majority (80.9%) of survey respondents preferred that New Zealand aim for greater independence from both the USA and China.</p>
<p>National’s Judith Collins made favourable comments about Trump during a pre-election debate, perhaps aware of support for him within her base.</p>
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<p>Suppose, then, that the National Party chose as leader a Trump-like conservative “non-politician” — someone who divided rather than united, and who put economic liberty ahead of health and human lives. </p>
<p>Bearing in mind that this inference is based on a non-scientific survey, he or she could energise perhaps an existing base of one-fifth of National’s supporters, while winning over others from parties further to the right.</p>
<p>Traditional conservatives and centre-right liberals within National would be aghast. But, desperate to change the government, they may have nowhere else to turn.</p>
<p>Then again, it could all end badly. Those voters who switched from National to Labour in 2020 may not want to switch back. And in New Zealand politics, the winning party is the one that wins those centrist voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149424/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump may be on the way out, but ‘Trumpism’ will remain a political force. Could it ever take hold in New Zealand?Grant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1492732020-11-03T00:37:20Z2020-11-03T00:37:20ZCan New Zealand’s most diverse ever cabinet improve representation of women and minorities in general?<p>Two weeks after Labour’s landslide election win, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a ministry that is more diverse than any seen before in New Zealand. </p>
<p>Of those inside cabinet, 40% are women, 25% are Māori (two in five of those are women), 15% are Pasifika (two in three are women), and 15% are LGBTQI — one of whom is Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson. </p>
<p>Beyond the 20 cabinet ministers, there are four ministers outside cabinet and two undersecretaries. Of these six, three are women, two are Māori, one is Pasifika and one is Indian. Green Party co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw are also associate ministers outside cabinet. The diversity of Ardern’s new government runs deep.</p>
<p>There remain important voices missing from cabinet, however. As Jonny Wilkinson of disability support network <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/jonny-wilkinson-election-2020-results-good-for-diversity-but-disability-voice-missing/HA5G2SHS5GIQIEHIAHVWPIOAYQ/">Tiaho Trust</a> noted, disabled people are the largest minority group in New Zealand but they lack representation in parliament and cabinet. </p>
<h2>Greater diversity over time</h2>
<p>In 2017 Ardern set herself a target of a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/342022/ardern-vows-to-improve-cabinet-gender-balance">gender balanced</a> cabinet. She missed achieving this in 2020 despite demands for, and achievement of, increased <a href="https://www.iknowpolitics.org/en/learn/knowledge-resources/data-and-statistics/gender-parity-cabinets-are-rise">gender parity</a> in government executive branches globally in recent years.</p>
<p>As the proportion of women in parliament increases, it is argued, so too does the pool of eligible candidates from which the prime minister can select women ministers. </p>
<p>Some leaders have ignored this, including former Australian prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/16/women-cabinet-abbott">Tony Abbott</a>, who claimed there were insufficient women parliamentarians with the experience needed for cabinet. That position has become increasingly untenable over time. </p>
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<p>While large scale comparative studies suggest women leaders are no more likely than their male counterparts to select women ministers, in New Zealand we know that it was Labour’s Helen Clark who substantially increased the proportion of women promoted to cabinet (from 11% in 1996 to 35% in 1999). </p>
<p>National Party Prime Minister John Key followed her example, ensuring his cabinets comprised at least 30% women. Ardern has moved the bar higher by selecting 40% women. </p>
<h2>The gender quota debate</h2>
<p>That we have yet to reach gender parity may raise questions in New Zealand and elsewhere. However, our major parties have long resisted implementing strict gender quotas, meaning incremental progress is the norm. That said, our global gender ranking has gone from 50th equal to <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/women-in-politics-map-2020-en.pdf?la=en&vs=827">26th equal</a>.</p>
<p>This contrasts with Canada’s Justin Trudeau, who in 2015 made history when he selected his <a href="https://pacificoutlier.org/2015/11/05/matthew-kerby-and-jennifer-curtin-gender-parity-and-the-2015-canadian-federal-cabinet-trudeaus-first-history-making-moment/">first gender parity</a> cabinet. There had been criticism of the policy by pundits who argued diversity and merit could not co-exist, but Trudeau’s response was pithy: “Because it’s 2015.” </p>
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<p>Five years on, Ardern may have anticipated similar resistance. Asked about the basis of her cabinet selection, she said it was based on “merit, talent and diversity”. Gender balance was the byproduct, in other words. </p>
<p>We also know that not all ministries are created equal. Globally it is finance, foreign affairs, defence and other highly resourced portfolios that are most prized. These usually make up the leader’s inner circle (remember former Labour Prime Minister David Lange’s all male “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_and_Chip_Brigade">fish and chip brigade</a>”). </p>
<p>However, the Interparliamentary Union’s annual maps of <a href="https://www.unwomen.org/-/media/headquarters/attachments/sections/library/publications/2020/women-in-politics-map-2020-en.pdf?la=en&vs=827">women in world politics</a> reveal these ministries continue to be allocated more often to men than women. </p>
<h2>Women inside the inner circle</h2>
<p>This is not the case in Labour’s new cabinet. Ardern’s inner circle (or top five if the photos are anything to go by) includes two women. The top ten positions in cabinet are shared equally between the sexes, with the portfolios alternating between women and men in order of seniority. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s first female foreign affairs minister is Nanaia Mahuta, former associate minister of trade and a senior member of Labour’s Māori caucus. Fourth ranked Megan Woods, who holds a number of big-budget portfolios, has been made associate minister of finance. </p>
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<p>There are four new women ministers (one of whom has come straight into cabinet from outside parliament), who have portfolios of their own but who are also associate ministers working with other senior ministers. This is an important strategy — if those senior ministers take their roles seriously, it will ensure these more junior women are likelier to succeed. </p>
<h2>The challenge of wider diversity</h2>
<p>One <a href="https://www.genderjustice.nz/why_this_matters">question</a> that remains for women’s organisations, however, is whether this new-look ministry will enhance the substantive representation of women and other minorities. </p>
<p>Women workers (as well as the young, Māori and Pasifika) have borne the brunt of job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning we need gender and diversity analyses applied to all <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/what-the-budget-means-for-women">future economic recovery commitments</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, our <a href="https://nzfvc.org.nz/family-violence-statistics">family and sexual violence</a> rates remain high, although the cross-portfolio policy responses continue to be led by talented ministers from both Labour and the Greens. </p>
<p>Whether this will be a feminist-focused cabinet remains to be seen. But the diversity of expertise, perspectives and lived experiences among the women around the cabinet table offers an opportunity to bring more diversity into policy deliberations and decisions. As it should — after all, it’s 2020.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Curtin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Half of Jacinda Ardern’s ten most senior ministers are now women, lifting NZ’s global gender ranking from 50th to 26th.Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489842020-11-02T02:14:32Z2020-11-02T02:14:32ZHer cabinet appointed, Jacinda Ardern now leads one of the most powerful governments NZ has seen<p>Jacinda Ardern’s new “<a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1309/482507295-Ministerial-List.pdf?1604279064">COVID cabinet</a>” is pretty much the same as — and completely unlike — every previous government under the mixed member proportional (MMP) system. </p>
<p>The similarity involves the political accommodation reached between Labour and the Greens. Every government formed since 1996 has rested on <a href="https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/civicsnz/obtaining-a-comprehensive-list-of-coalition-agreements-and-support-agreement-documents-since-1996/">such arrangements</a>. This one does too.</p>
<p>The difference lies in Ardern’s administration being the first single-party majority government since the electoral rules changed in the mid-1990s. Add to that the arrangement with the Greens and they have a massive 74-seat bloc in the House — 13 more than is needed to govern. </p>
<p>In brute political terms, Ardern is at the head of one of (and perhaps <em>the</em>) biggest parliamentary alliances in the nation’s history.</p>
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<h2>The Greens’ consolation prize</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300146558/election-2020-green-party-votes-to-be-part-of-next-government-with-labour">deal</a> announced over the weekend is a cooperation agreement. Think of it as the smallest of the consolation prizes, the thing you’re offered when your support is nice to have but not really necessary. </p>
<p>For the 15% of Green delegates who voted against it, perhaps it was just too small, and you can see their point. In the last government (when the party had eight rather than ten seats), the Greens held ten full or associate portfolios. </p>
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<p>None of their ministers sat in cabinet, true, but there were four in the executive. Now there are only two, holding four portfolios between them — and they’re still not sitting at the top table.</p>
<p>Look more closely at <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/the-full-proposed-cooperation-agreement-between-labour-and-the-greens.html">the detail</a>, though, and things get more interesting. </p>
<h2>A new kind of MMP</h2>
<p>The Green ministers will participate in relevant cabinet committees and informal ministerial groups, have access to officials’ papers, and get to meet with the prime minister at least every six weeks. Labour and the Greens’ respective chiefs of staff will also meet regularly.</p>
<p>What’s more, the party will chair one parliamentary committee and get the deputy’s slot on another. In non-portfolio areas of mutual interest, Green spokespeople will have access to Labour ministers and departmental advice. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
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<p>All that and they get to publicly disagree with the government on policies that fall outside Green portfolios. That is not a bad policy haul for a party Labour does not need to form a government.</p>
<p>And there is no way any of it would have happened under the single-party majority governments we used to see under the previous first-past-the-post system. So it may be a consolation prize, but in fact it’s not that small.</p>
<h2>A more diverse government</h2>
<p>As well as being the first single-party majority MMP government, it is also a diverse one. In her first term Ardern acknowledged the importance of having more women in cabinet. Nearly half (47%) of the new parliament — and a majority of Labour’s caucus (53%) — are women. </p>
<p>To some extent this is reflected in the makeup of the executive. Eight of the 20 full cabinet members are women; in total, women comprise 43% of the wider administration. There are more women in the ministry than in the National Party’s caucus.</p>
<p>The executive also contains a solid number of people of colour: perhaps as many as a quarter of all ministers and parliamentary under-secretaries are non-Pākehā.</p>
<p>On election night, Labour’s Māori caucus conveyed a direct message to the prime minister about the importance of a solid Māori presence in Cabinet. She appears to have listened. </p>
<p>Between them, Labour’s Māori MPs get five seats in cabinet. Add positions outside cabinet as well as the Greens’ Marama Davidson and Māori comprise 25% of all members of the executive. Perhaps most noteworthy is that Nanaia Mahuta becomes the country’s first female Minister of Foreign Affairs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
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<p>Ardern has also looked carefully at her back bench and the clutch of incoming MPs, bringing some of them into the political executive. Jan Tinetti and Kiri Allan have been marked for higher things for some time, while the newly minted MP <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/121229439/the-story-behind-the-doctor-pushing-for-better-covid19-contact-tracing">Dr Ayesha Verrall</a> comes straight into cabinet as an associate health minister.</p>
<h2>Power and control</h2>
<p>Under certain circumstances a large parliamentary caucus can be a challenge. Thwarted egos, stifled ambitions, fits of pique — once the thrill of the election result has worn off, managing relations between those who are in government and the wider parliamentary party will be one of the chief challenges facing Labour’s whips. </p>
<p>The Green co-leaders aside, Ardern’s executive comprises 40% of the Labour party’s caucus. Given the conventions of collective cabinet responsibility, this means that members of the government have a near majority within caucus, so discipline shouldn’t be an issue — yet.</p>
<p>It is hard to overstate just how much control Ardern has over New Zealand’s 53rd parliament. Even before special votes are counted, the parliamentary arithmetic renders National, ACT and the Māori Party virtually irrelevant. </p>
<p>Labour dominates the executive, and between them Labour and the Greens will dominate the legislature and its committees. Voters have placed considerable power in Ardern’s hands. It’s time to see what she does with it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148984/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new cabinet may be diverse and inclusive, but Labour also has unprecedented executive and legislative control.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1491382020-10-30T01:16:37Z2020-10-30T01:16:37ZAssisted dying will become legal in New Zealand in a year — what has to happen now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366636/original/file-20201030-13-1c8b31a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The preliminary results of New Zealand’s referendum on the End of Life Choice Act were conclusive. Some 65.2% of voters supported the law coming into force, while 33.8% opposed it.</p>
<p>Although around 480,000 special votes are still to be counted, the margin is so great there is no chance these will alter the final outcome. Consequently, the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0067/latest/DLM7285970.html">End of Life Choice Act 2019</a> will come into force on November 6 2021, one year after the official vote is announced next week. </p>
<p>It will then become lawful to offer assisted dying (AD) to terminally ill individuals who meet the legislation’s eligibility criteria. The delay in the law taking effect provides a 12-month window to implement the necessary arrangements for AD to take place. </p>
<p>One significant issue yet to be determined is whether AD services will be specifically funded, and if so how. The Ministry of Health will need to resolve this over the next year.</p>
<p>In the meantime, what needs to happen next? Immediate priorities for the Director-General of Health under the legislation are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>to appoint a Registrar (assisted dying)</p></li>
<li><p>to establish the Support and Consultation for End of Life in New Zealand (SCENZ) Group</p></li>
<li><p>to appoint an End of Life Review Committee.</p></li>
</ul>
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<h2>The role of the Registrar (assisted dying)</h2>
<p>The Registrar (assisted dying) plays a core role in monitoring and reporting on compliance with the Act. They will also direct any complaints about AD to the appropriate bodies. </p>
<p>The Act, administered by the Ministry of Health, requires adherence to strict regulatory processes. These must be documented in prescribed forms submitted to the Registrar before AD may be performed. </p>
<p>Approving and issuing these prescribed forms falls to the Director-General of Health. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-nz-votes-on-euthanasia-bill-here-is-a-historical-perspective-on-a-good-death-126580">As NZ votes on euthanasia bill, here is a historical perspective on a 'good death'</a>
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<h2>What SCENZ will do</h2>
<p>Curiously, the Act does not prescribe the composition of the SCENZ Group. It simply requires that the Director-General appoint members with the necessary knowledge and understanding to perform its functions. </p>
<p>The group essentially has two roles: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>to determine standards of care and advise on the required medical and legal procedures for the administration of medication for AD</p></li>
<li><p>to provide practical assistance if requested. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The second role is largely administrative and facilitative. SCENZ is required to curate and maintain a list of health practitioners willing to be involved in AD, which includes: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>doctors willing to act as replacement medical practitioners should a person’s own doctor be unwilling to participate in AD due to conscientious objection</p></li>
<li><p>medical practitioners willing to provide an independent second opinion on a person’s eligibility for AD</p></li>
<li><p>psychiatrists willing to provide specialist opinions on a person’s capacity, should either or both the attending or independent medical practitioners not be satisfied that the person requesting AD is competent</p></li>
<li><p>pharmacists willing to dispense the necessary drugs. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Given these functions, the SCENZ group will presumably be comprised of suitably qualified medical practitioners and pharmacists as well as individuals with knowledge of the relevant law and tikanga Māori, although its final composition remains to be seen.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/assisted-dying-referendum-people-at-the-end-of-their-lives-say-it-offers-a-good-death-144112">Assisted dying referendum: people at the end of their lives say it offers a 'good death'</a>
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<h2>Compliance and review</h2>
<p>The Director-General of Health must also appoint a three-person End of Life Review Committee. This body is tasked with evaluating reports of assisted deaths to determine if the statutory requirements are being complied with. It can refer cases to the Registrar if it is not satisfied. </p>
<p>The Act requires the committee to be comprised of one ethicist and two health practitioners, one of whom must be practising end-of-life care.</p>
<h2>Role of the Medical Council</h2>
<p>Given the medical profession will have primary responsibility for providing AD, it’s likely its professional body, the <a href="https://www.mcnz.org.nz/">Medical Council of New Zealand</a>, will need to begin formulating and consulting on clinical practice standards for medical practitioners involved in providing or facilitating AD.</p>
<p>While the council publishes generic standards of professional practice, including standards for obtaining informed consent and cultural safety, specific guidance should be developed for AD. </p>
<p>The standards should incorporate the legal obligations imposed on medical practitioners under the Act. These include the prohibition on initiating a discussion of AD with a patient, and the legal obligation to inform a patient of their right to a replacement medical practitioner if their doctor objects to AD. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-places-where-its-legal-how-many-people-are-ending-their-lives-using-euthanasia-73755">In places where it's legal, how many people are ending their lives using euthanasia?</a>
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<p>The Medical Council could also provide guidance on clinical practice issues that may arise, including ways of identifying coercion, or how to manage difficult conversations with patients (such as when they are found to be ineligible under the Act). </p>
<h2>Objection and obligation</h2>
<p>Significantly, the Act doesn’t require health institutions to provide AD services. Hospice New Zealand has already <a href="https://www.hospice.org.nz/resources/end-of-life-choice-act-our-concerns/">signalled</a> it will not provide AD, as it is contrary to its philosophy “neither to hasten nor to postpone death”. </p>
<p>However, a recent <a href="https://forms.justice.govt.nz/search/Documents/pdf/jdo/8b/alfresco/service/api/node/content/workspace/SpacesStore/bab8773d-b3eb-4caf-8e09-cf7a84cef0fc/bab8773d-b3eb-4caf-8e09-cf7a84cef0fc.pdf">High Court decision</a> notes that although institutions may choose not to provide AD, medical practitioners will still be required to discharge their obligations under the Act — including the obligation to provide information to patients. </p>
<p>Although an organisation may elect not to provide AD, it may employ medical practitioners who are willing to. Provisions will need to be made to enable such practitioners to provide AD outside their own organisation. This is an area that will require careful navigation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The detailed work of making the End of Life Choice Act work in practice now begins, including the decision about how assisted dying will be funded.Jeanne Snelling, Lecturer, University of OtagoAndrew Geddis, Professor of Law, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1486212020-10-27T08:52:00Z2020-10-27T08:52:00ZNew MP Ibrahim Omer’s election highlights the challenges refugees from Africa face in New Zealand<p>The election of Labour candidate Ibrahim Omer on October 17 makes him New Zealand’s first African MP and one of only two former refugees to sit in the New Zealand parliament. </p>
<p>Omer originally fled Eritrea for Sudan as a teenager, before being accepted by New Zealand. That experience makes him “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428690/labour-s-red-tide-sees-its-parliamentary-diversity-increase">the real deal</a>”, according to the Labour Party. His election supports the story that, no matter your background, you can join the New Zealand community and become a leader.</p>
<p>The reality for many former refugees from Africa, however, shows this is not easy. There are major structural and societal obstacles, including experiences of racism, and a lack of ongoing support and trauma care.</p>
<p>My research suggests these experiences are shared by many. Between 2018 and 2020 members of the Luo community in Wellington, a diverse group mostly from Uganda and South Sudan, shared their stories. Like Omer, many had fled their countries to escape war, torture, rape and persecution. </p>
<p>Also like Omer, many spent several years in refugee camps before they found refuge in New Zealand. These camps are not easy places — violence is common and food rations are limited, with children in particular at risk of malnutrition. People regularly disappear and die, families are often separated and it may be years before they are reunited, if they ever are.</p>
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<h2>The refugee experience</h2>
<p>New Zealand is one of only 37 countries to commit to the regular resettlement of refugees. Capped at 1,500 per year, New Zealand’s program has taken <a href="https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/our-strategies-and-projects/supporting-refugees-and-asylum-seekers/refugee-and-protection-unit/new-zealand-refugee-quota-programme">over 35,000 refugees</a> since the second world war. </p>
<p>But the support offered is limited. After six weeks at the Mangere Refugee Resettlement Centre in Auckland, people are sent to settlement areas across New Zealand. Ongoing help is left primarily to volunteer agencies and is patchy at best. </p>
<p>Interviewees reported feeling lost, confused and unsure of their rights and options. Most concerning was the treatment they reported from professional health-care providers, as well as a general sense of exclusion from New Zealand society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-equal-health-access-and-outcomes-should-be-a-priority-for-arderns-new-government-148421">Why equal health access and outcomes should be a priority for Ardern's new government</a>
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<p>Health and well-being are viewed as vital to successful immigrant integration and <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/feature/migrant-health-across-europe">overall community health</a>. New Zealand recognises this in the five strategic priorities of its <a href="https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/our-strategies-and-projects/refugee-resettlement-strategy">Refugee Resettlement Strategy</a>. </p>
<p>The majority of participants, however, reported experiencing racism from health-care providers. One person was told his skin was too dark for diagnosis, and his skin complaint remained untreated.</p>
<p>People struggled with health-care professionals lacking cultural awareness or sensitivity to the lasting consequences of being a refugee. One commented: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For us Africans, most doctors don’t know what is culturally appropriate and what’s not, and […] no one is interested to ask us before we are given treatment. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The need for cultural competency</h2>
<p>The Medical Council of New Zealand acknowledges that cultural competency is a <a href="https://www.mcnz.org.nz/assets/standards/CulturalCompetence/0ec02ab508/CCPHE-symposium-booklet.pdf">key factor</a> in reducing health inequity. Current accreditation training for doctors includes aspects of cultural safety training. But this <a href="https://www.mcnz.org.nz/assets/Publications/Reports/f5c692d6b0/Cultural-Safety-Baseline-Data-Report-FINAL-September-2020.pdf">varies across district health boards</a> (DHBs) and focuses on Māori and Pasifika communities. There is no training in the specific issues faced by former refugees.</p>
<p>Priority is also given to physical health. While important, this is often not the most significant issue for former refugees. They <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mental-health-in-emergencies">often suffer</a> from depression and other mental illnesses, as well as alcohol dependency and drug use due to ongoing stress. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-reform-a-call-for-an-early-warning-protocol-for-infectious-diseases-148078">WHO reform: a call for an early-warning protocol for infectious diseases</a>
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<p>Many suffer from family breakdown. The causes of this are complicated, but my research found they were compounded by social exclusion from vital sources of support, including health care. </p>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0706743717746666">Post-migration experiences</a> have been shown to have a significant impact on people’s ability to recover from traumas suffered before migration. A <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/730917/local_action_on_health_inequalities.pdf">UK study</a> in 2018 found racial discrimination and harassment of ethnic minorities indirectly affected health outcomes due to exclusion from vital support systems such as education, employment and housing. </p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/127526/e94497.pdf">2010 report</a> by the World Health Organisation noted that migrants and ethnic minorities across Europe often suffer social exclusion, resulting in poorer health outcomes. Institutional racism in the health-care system has long been recognised as a factor in <a href="https://www.hqsc.govt.nz/assets/Health-Quality-Evaluation/PR/Window_2019_web_final.pdf">health inequities in New Zealand</a>. In the context of a rapidly diversifying population, confronting this becomes more urgent.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-predicted-to-make-child-poverty-worse-should-nzs-next-government-make-temporary-safety-nets-permanent-147177">COVID-19 is predicted to make child poverty worse. Should NZ's next government make temporary safety nets permanent?</a>
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<p>Omer has <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123129026/incoming-labour-list-mp-ibrahim-omer-says-its-a-privilege-to-be-first-the-african-mp">promised</a> to tackle issues facing immigrants, and there are many ways the refugee experience could be improved. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>state commitment to regular support beyond the initial six weeks</p></li>
<li><p>mandatory training for all health-care professionals in cultural safety and holistic approaches to health and well-being </p></li>
<li><p>specific training on the known social and health challenges faced by refugees.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The participants in this research want to feel at home in New Zealand. They are grateful to have found refuge, and all have worked hard to adapt to life here. They are care workers, community leaders, IT specialists. Their children go to school and university here and look forward to playing an active role in society. </p>
<p>Taking steps to provide ongoing support for refugees arriving in New Zealand is one way to make their hoped-for futures viable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Bennett receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Judah Seomeng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the country’s first ever African MP, and only the second refugee to win a seat, Ibrahim Omer is ideally placed to tackle the big problems facing immigrant communities.Samuel Judah Seomeng, Postgraduate student, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonCaroline Bennett, Lecturer in Cultural Anthropology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1485152020-10-22T19:01:08Z2020-10-22T19:01:08ZThe reward for good pandemic leadership: Lessons from Jacinda Ardern’s New Zealand reelection<p>The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-the-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">reelection</a> of the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour government in New Zealand offers leaders elsewhere a potent lesson about how best to respond to <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/covid-19-82431">COVID-19</a>. Saving lives is, not surprisingly, a real vote-winner.</p>
<p>Ardern’s Oct. 17 victory was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">record-breaking landslide</a>. Labour secured <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-the-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">49% of the party vote</a> and an expected 64 seats in the 120-member Parliament.</p>
<p>Labour can therefore <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">govern alone</a>, if it wishes. It’s the first time any party has had this choice since New Zealand moved to a <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">mixed-member proportional</a> electoral system in 1993.</p>
<p>Pending special votes, Labour has secured more support than its competitors in <a href="https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/10/election-2020-results-analysis-labour-day/#red-swing-table">77% of local neighorhoods</a>. The result is the most dramatic swing in more than a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-2020-nz-election-saw-record-vote-volatility-what-does-that-mean-for-the-next-labour-government-148330">century of elections</a>.</p>
<p>The election outcome constitutes a compelling endorsement of Ardern, whose decisive response to the first wave of the coronavirus in March was a master class in crisis leadership.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541">Three reasons why Jacinda Ardern's coronavirus response has been a masterclass in crisis leadership</a>
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<h2>A COVID-19 election</h2>
<p>It was commonly acknowledged that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/new-zealands-weirdest-election-covid-dominates-battle-between-ardern-and-collins">pandemic-related issues were always going to dominate</a> this election. Ardern’s initial response to COVID-19 was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/judith-collins-named-new-zealand-national-party-new-leader">grudgingly accepted as reasonably effective</a> by the opposition National Party.</p>
<p>But the opposition also argued Labour “<a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2008/S00162/securing-new-zealands-border-against-covid-19.htm">dropped the ball</a>” in managing quarantine processes at the border and claimed the National Party was better <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-vows-speed-up-nz-s-economic-recovery-robertson-stands-labour-balanced-plan">placed to manage economic recovery</a>.</p>
<p>A clear majority of voters obviously did not accept these views. Indeed, the election result suggests voters have <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428621/government-will-be-formed-within-the-next-two-to-three-weeks-jacinda-ardern">confidence in Ardern</a>.</p>
<p>Key features of her leadership approach to COVID-19 are discernible – and offer useful lessons for leaders elsewhere – even given the specific advantages New Zealand has, such as its geographic isolation and relatively small population. </p>
<h2>Lessons in ‘lives and livelihoods’</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1742715020929151">case study “Pandemic leadership: Lessons from New Zealand’s approach to COVID-19”</a> identifies Ardern’s resolute and persistent focus on minimizing harm to lives and livelihoods as one such key lesson.</p>
<p>Prioritizing both health and economic considerations as central concerns affords a fundamentally different strategy from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/11/as-the-tide-of-coronavirus-swells-again-boris-johnson-heads-into-a-perfect-storm">the yo-yo-ing</a> between either health or the economy, which characterizes the approach taken by the likes of U.K. Prime Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/leadership-expert-boris-johnson-is-failing-the-nation-in-coronavirus-response-146863">Boris Johnson</a>.</p>
<p>While this dual focus doesn’t magically solve everything that might arise from COVID-19, emphasizing both as mission critical avoids the strategic misstep of allowing largely unfettered economic activity alongside weak levels of control over the virus’s spread.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300084767/covid19-should-nz-go-swedens-way">Evidence continues to mount</a> that such approaches end up costing both <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/20/sweden-economy-pandemic-strategy/">lives and livelihoods</a>. </p>
<p>So this dual focus has been made clear and is ethically defensible, which helps in garnering the support of citizens – who are, after all, the voters.</p>
<h2>Listen to and act on expert advice</h2>
<p>Ardern is persistent in her commitment to a science-led approach. Effective <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/new-zealand-covid-19-coronavirus-ashley-bloomfield.html">engagement with the media</a> by New Zealand’s director-general of health, <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/leadership-ministry/executive-leadership-team#ashley">Dr. Ashley Bloomfield</a>, has lent real credibility to Ardern’s claims that the political arm of government is listening to independent, expert advice. This practice of being led by expertise is the second key feature of Ardern’s effective pandemic leadership.</p>
<p>Ardern also has a strong focus on mobilizing collective effort. This involves <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz">informing, educating and uniting</a> people to do what’s needed to minimize harm to lives and livelihoods. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Tougher talk and action.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Regular press conferences show Ardern doesn’t pull her punches when delivering bad news, but she balances this with explaining why government directives matter and conveying empathy for their disruptive effects.</p>
<p>She also has a strong focus on practicalities and avoids getting defensive when questioned.</p>
<p>To secure unfiltered feedback from the public, she runs regular, impromptu <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jacindaardern/">Facebook Live</a> sessions.</p>
<p>All these measures help give people confidence that Ardern genuinely cares about and is interested in people’s needs and views, thereby mobilizing community support for government mandates.</p>
<p>Ardern also focuses on actions that help to enable coping. This involves a range of initiatives to help people and organizations plan ahead. One example is the government’s <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/">Alert Level framework</a>, which sets out the different rules and restrictions that apply depending on the current risk of community transmission.</p>
<p>A focus on building knowledge and skills relevant for surviving the pandemic, <a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/ethos-kindness-ardern-voted-worlds-second-top-thinker">on kindness</a> and on innovation form part of this approach, addressing both practical and emotional needs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram showing various leadership actions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364669/original/file-20201021-23-1sjc0nl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Pandemic leadership: A good practices framework.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suze Wilson/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>No ‘magic bullet’ … but</h2>
<p>None of this constitutes a magic bullet for easily overcoming COVID-19. Not in New Zealand nor anywhere else.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s economy is officially <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record">in recession</a>. The <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/423305/covid-19-new-cases-push-new-zealand-into-resurgence-plan">August outbreak</a> of new cases triggered a marked increase in <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/09/06/covid-19_disinformation-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-social-media/">misinformation and disinformation</a> spread via social media, posing a clear threat to adherence with virus control measures.</p>
<p>And, looking ahead, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">expectations on Ardern’s government</a> to deliver economic recovery, as well as substantive progress on other key issues such as climate change and poverty reduction, are enormous.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
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<p>But even though Ardern’s approach has <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-admits-group-selfie-mistake">not been faultless</a>, her reelection makes it clear the effective pandemic leadership practices she demonstrates attracted strong levels of voter support.</p>
<p>That’s a lesson no elected leader ought to ignore. For U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seeking reelection on Nov. 3 and whose nation has suffered <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days">220,000 COVID deaths so far</a>, it remains to be seen if voters will punish or endorse the kind of leadership approach he has taken to the pandemic.</p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Suze Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leaders need to focus on minimizing the COVID-19 harm to both lives and livelihoods if they’re to win support from the electorate.Suze Wilson, Senior Lecturer, Executive Development, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484212020-10-22T18:56:53Z2020-10-22T18:56:53ZWhy equal health access and outcomes should be a priority for Ardern’s new government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364889/original/file-20201022-14-m2otak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=206%2C339%2C4714%2C2914&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/ChameleonsEye</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30237-1/fulltext">public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic</a> may be the envy of the world, but as the new government looks ahead, potentially with a more progressive lens, it will have to face several challenges in the health sector.</p>
<p>New Zealand is recognised internationally for having a <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/other-publication/2020/jan/multinational-comparisons-health-systems-data-2019">good health system</a>. Unlike citizens of some other high-income countries, all New Zealanders have, in principle at least, access to free secondary health care.</p>
<p>But inequality is a major issue, leading to <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/new-zealand-life-expectancy-increasing">shortened average life expectancy</a> and more health problems for Māori, <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/new-zealand-life-expectancy-increasing">Pasifika communities</a> and New Zealanders <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24929569/">living with disabilities</a>. </p>
<p>People also cite cost as a <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2017/jul/mirror-mirror-2017-international-comparison-reflects-flaws-and">barrier to accessing health services</a> and there are <a href="https://www.hqsc.govt.nz/our-programmes/health-quality-evaluation/projects/atlas-of-healthcare-variation/">stark regional differences</a> in service (in access, provision and outcome) and in support for those experiencing major illness, such as cancer, <a href="https://healthcentral.nz/overhaul-acc-to-cover-illness-not-just-injuries-argues-sir-geoffrey-palmer/">compared to those with major injury</a>. </p>
<h2>Improving health outcomes for all</h2>
<p>Among the first non-COVID-19 health challenges for the government will be to decide whether to implement any recommendations from the recent <a href="https://systemreview.health.govt.nz/">Health and Disability System review</a>, commissioned by the previous Labour-NZ First coalition government. </p>
<p>The first requirement for the review panel was to “recommend how the system could be designed to achieve better health and well-being outcomes for all” — and it highlighted addressing equity. The panel recommended adequate funding and an increased focus on public health as important steps towards achieving equity. </p>
<p>Achieving more equitable outcomes for Pasifika communities, people living in poverty or with disabilities and other marginalised groups is crucial. But the first priority should be to honour the Tiriti o Waitangi (<a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/treaty-of-waitangi">Treaty of Waitangi</a>) by embedding genuine partnerships with Māori at all levels of our health system. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-inquiries-find-unfair-treatment-and-healthcare-for-maori-this-is-how-we-fix-it-144939">Two inquiries find unfair treatment and healthcare for Māori. This is how we fix it</a>
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<p>Some health organisations have deliberately <a href="https://pharmac.govt.nz/news-and-resources/news/inaugural-chief-advisor-maori-appointed-to-pharmac/">appointed Māori health leaders</a> to executive levels to advance equity for Māori. But genuine partnership must ensure <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/unravelling-the-whariki-of-crown-maori-health-infrastructure">many Māori voices are at the table</a>, and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1177083X.2018.1561477">heard</a> — from local health committees to boards and executive leadership teams throughout the health system.</p>
<p>Consultation can not be the end point of equity partnerships. They must move to financial and decision-making empowerment. Most of the review panel, as well as the Māori advisory group, recommended a proposed Māori Health Authority, which should:</p>
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<p>commission health services … for Māori using an indigenous-driven model within the proposed system to achieve equity.</p>
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<p>The government must look closely at this as well as the Waitangi Tribunal’s <a href="https://forms.justice.govt.nz/search/Documents/WT/wt_DOC_152801817/Hauora%20W.pdf">report</a> on the <a href="https://waitangitribunal.govt.nz/inquiries/kaupapa-inquiries/health-services-and-outcomes-inquiry/">Health Services and Outcomes Inquiry</a> to support Māori aspirations for tino rangatiratanga (self-governance) and mana motuhake (autonomy, independence). </p>
<p>The government also needs to explicitly address <a href="https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/racism-and-health-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-a-systematic-review-of-quantitative-studies">racism in the health system</a>, which underlies health inequities. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maori-and-pasifika-leaders-report-racism-in-government-health-advisory-groups-112779">Māori and Pasifika leaders report racism in government health advisory groups</a>
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<h2>Cost barriers and regional differences</h2>
<p>Another challenge will be to get the balance right between regional and central decision-making. </p>
<p>New Zealand has a small and geographically dispersed population, and currently, more than three-quarters of public health funds go to <a href="https://www.health.govt.nz/new-zealand-health-system/overview-health-system/funding">20 regional district health boards</a>. These regional authorities plan, buy and provide health services within their respective areas.</p>
<p>The Health and Disability System review proposed a new agency, Health NZ, which would be separate from the Ministry of Health and responsible for leading health service delivery, with fewer district health boards. If Health NZ is established, its mandate could include reducing regional differences in access to, and quality of, care.</p>
<p>The current health funding also creates barriers to accessing primary care services. For many people, the cost of seeing a GP or after-hours service is too high, and these barriers fall unfairly. </p>
<p>Past governments have taken steps to increase the eligible age for free youth primary care services. GP visits are currently free for children under 14 — an improvement on the earlier age limit of six. These are positive steps and could be expanded to include all youth and marginalised groups. </p>
<h2>Public versus private healthcare</h2>
<p>New Zealand’s health care is a dual system of public and private provision.</p>
<p>People who can’t <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19322811/">afford health insurance or private health care</a> sometimes face long <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/public-v-private-healthcare-does-the-conflict-cause-long-wait-times/C7ZAJ26WPGALBVC3QUFVC2EOYE/">waiting times for surgery and other hospital services</a>. The new government could improve access by learning from initiatives in other countries, including a recent <a href="https://www.bccourts.ca/jdb-txt/sc/20/13/2020BCSC1310.htm#SCJTITLEBookMark3957">high-profile judgement</a> in British Columbia, Canada, which argued health care should be guided by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/cambie-surgeries-case-trial-decision-bc-supreme-court-2020-1.5718589">medically necessary care</a>, not the ability to pay.</p>
<p>New Zealand also has a strong and unique system of universal <a href="https://www.acc.co.nz/">no-fault accident compensation</a>. It looks after injured New Zealanders, from injury to rehabilitation, including salary support. </p>
<p>But people affected by illness have fewer services and only very limited means-tested financial support options available to them. The inequities arising from this include the obvious differences in financial and rehabilitation support, but also fewer people of working age with an illness <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953613001342">returning to paid employment</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-catch-up-patch-up-health-budget-misses-the-chance-for-a-national-overhaul-138509">New Zealand’s ‘catch up, patch up’ health budget misses the chance for a national overhaul</a>
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<h2>Building on Labour Party history</h2>
<p>In 1935, in a landslide, Michael Joseph Savage led the Labour Party to its first electoral victory. His government had a clear mandate and went on to establish New Zealand’s universal health-care system in 1938. </p>
<p>Jacinda Ardern’s leadership has shown we can act decisively in the face of a pandemic with, so far, relatively equitable health outcomes (although a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/425296/former-cook-islands-pm-dies-in-auckland-from-covid">Pasifika leader</a> and two <a href="https://www.teaomaori.news/man-dies-covid-19-part-auckland-cluster">Māori men died</a> in the August outbreak in Auckland). </p>
<p>The new Labour government could use its mandate to implement changes to health services with the explicit goal of realising health equity. Opportunities for this exist in genuine partnership with Māori at all levels of the health system and mandatory anti-racist systems and processes. </p>
<p>Further goals should include reducing regional variation, continuing to remove cost barriers and, finally, realising Justice Sir Owen Woodhouse’s <a href="https://www.acc.co.nz/about-us/who-we-are/our-history/#1967--the-woodhouse-report--foundations-of-acc">1967 vision</a> of a united no-fault system of support for all New Zealanders in need, regardless of whether they have experienced major illness or injury.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Derrett has received Health Research Council (HRC) of New Zealand funding for research investigating outcomes after injury. Sarah Derrett an executive committee member of Bowel Cancer New Zealand - a patient and family-led charity.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Priest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealanders have, in principle, access to free healthcare. But inequality is a major issue, affecting Māori and Pasifika communities and New Zealanders living with disabilities or in poverty.Sarah Derrett, Professor, University of OtagoPatricia Priest, Assciate Professor in Epidemiology, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483302020-10-20T09:47:40Z2020-10-20T09:47:40ZThe 2020 NZ election saw record vote volatility — what does that mean for the next Labour government?<p>As the dust begins to settle after the 2020 election, a new electoral landscape becomes visible. It is remarkably different from the one before.</p>
<p>One way to put this in perspective is by measuring what we call “vote volatility” — the net vote shift between parties from one election to the next. By this calculation the 2020 election has ended a period of relative stability. </p>
<p>More significantly, unless reduced after the final count, the net vote shift will be the biggest in over a century. </p>
<p>The challenge will be for Labour to capitalise on this landmark in New Zealand electoral history — before the wheel inevitably turns again.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1317575063617548288"}"></div></p>
<h2>The first Labour landslide</h2>
<p>Vote volatility is calculated by adding the absolute changes in parties’ vote shares between elections, then dividing the sum by two. A score of 0 would mean parties all received the same vote shares as before. A score of 100 would mean a complete replacement of one set of parties by another.</p>
<p>Over the past century, New Zealand has had four elections in which net vote shifts have been well above the norm: 1919, 1935, 2005 and now 2020. </p>
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<p>In 1919, the Labour Party broke through into the city electorates and destroyed an embryonic two-party system that had pitched the Reform Party against the Liberal Party at the 1911 and 1914 elections. This turned elections into three-way races, with Labour winning mostly major urban seats, the Liberals doing better in the provincial towns and cities, and Reform in the countryside. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labours-single-party-majority-is-not-a-failure-of-mmp-it-is-a-sign-nzs-electoral-system-is-working-148328">Labour's single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ's electoral system is working</a>
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<p>In 1935, in a massive electoral landslide, Michael Joseph Savage’s Labour advanced further, <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/labour-party/page-2">forming</a> its first government. Three conservative parties merged to form the National Party, ushering in New Zealand’s second two-party system. </p>
<p>That lasted much longer, but began to decay as early as the 1950s. At the 1984 election, net vote shifts were higher than at any election since 1938. However, the <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/electoral-systems/page-3">first-past-the-post</a> system had prevented the emergence of a multi-party system from the 1970s onwards.</p>
<h2>An end to vote stability</h2>
<p>An upward vote volatility trend, beginning as long ago as the 1960s, continued after the introduction of MMP. Through the 1996, 1999 and 2002 elections, it reached a peak in 2005. After that, votes moved back in the direction of Labour and National. </p>
<p>As the pattern seemed to persist it led some observers to wonder whether the multi-party politics promised by MMP was a “mirage”. </p>
<p>ACT became a one-seat party, its Epsom electorate strategically gifted from National. New Zealand First dropped out of parliament in 2008, but returned in 2011. Only the Green Party prospered from one election to the next, eating into Labour’s vote share as the party languished in opposition during the John Key years. </p>
<p>Despite the change of government in 2008, vote shifts were modest, a pattern repeated in 2011. Indeed, in 2014 net vote shifts were the second lowest of any election over the previous century, only slightly higher than those of the “no change” election of 1963. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
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<p>In 2017, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour took office, <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/new-zealand-2017-general-election-official-results/">reflecting</a> a real shift to the left, but relying on New Zealand First’s coalition choice more than the movement of votes (which was not enough for a left majority). It seemed party politics under MMP had stabilised after a brief period of experimentation that ended after the 2005 election.</p>
<p>The 2020 election breaks the mould. If the pattern holds after the counting of special votes, it will surpass even 1935, New Zealand’s hitherto most dramatic realigning election. </p>
<p>Moreover, <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/preliminary-results-for-the-2020-general-election/">turnout was up</a>, another indicator of a big change. This was despite a widely predicted Labour win and a big margin between Labour and National in pre-election polls — expectation of a decisive result usually pulls turnout down. </p>
<h2>The challenge to create a legacy</h2>
<p>One might dismiss this as a one-off. COVID-19 and the government response created a perfect storm. When the crisis is over, things will return to normal. </p>
<p>But one could have said the same thing in 1935. The depression of the 1930s gave Labour the chance to win. Even if the economic recovery that followed was only partly an effect of Labour policy, the party reaped the rewards in 1938. </p>
<p>Like Michael Joseph Savage before her, Jacinda Ardern has demonstrated the leadership demanded by the times. But there is a difference. Labour in 1935 came to power with a big promise of a welfare state. Labour in 2020 has made no big promises, although many smaller ones. It faces huge challenges, arguably much more demanding than those of the 1930s. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
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<p>COVID-19 and a sustainable economic recovery will be the first priorities. Climate change, increased international tension, trade wars, internal cultural diversity and working through ongoing responsibilities under the Treaty of Waitangi — all of these will test the mettle of the Ardern government.</p>
<p>The 2020 election tells us the New Zealand party system is more prone to big shifts than expected after 2005. Periods of apparent two-party dominance may be temporary. Both Labour and National are prone to rise and fall, creating space for smaller parties to step into the gaps as they open, and fall back as they close. </p>
<p>The catalysts of change may be big external shocks or internal challenges. All else being equal, the 2020 election is likely to herald a period of Labour dominance, but eventually the tide will turn. Labour’s biggest challenge will be to establish a lasting policy legacy before that happens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As part of the New Zealand Election Study, Jack Vowles receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington and the New Zealand Electoral Commission.</span></em></p>If the pattern on election night holds, 2020 will be the most dramatic election in 100 years in terms of votes shifting between major parties.Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1483282020-10-19T00:28:49Z2020-10-19T00:28:49ZLabour’s single-party majority is not a failure of MMP, it is a sign NZ’s electoral system is working<p>Even as the results rolled in on election night there were mutterings that a parliamentary majority controlled by one political party is somehow inconsistent with the spirit of <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>. The magnitude of the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party’s victory will no doubt encourage that view. </p>
<p>Wrong. In at least three respects the election result is exactly what electoral reform was about. </p>
<h2>The mandate</h2>
<p>For the better part of the 20th century single-party majority governments in Aotearoa New Zealand were formed by parties that won a minority of the popular vote. The best example (or worst, depending on your view) was in 1993, when Jim Bolger’s National Party wound up with a manufactured parliamentary majority based on just <a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/historical-events/18901993-general-elections">35% of the vote</a>. </p>
<p>You need to go all the way back to 1951 to find the last time a governing party won a majority of the vote. </p>
<p>But you can’t get away with this under MMP. Ardern has already racked up Labour’s highest share of the vote since the 51.3% Peter Fraser’s Labour Party won in 1946. It’s also the best performance of any party under MMP. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
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<p>She’s done it at a time when voting for a party other than Labour or National is both possible and pretty normal. If, once special votes have been counted, Labour clears 50% of the vote Ardern will have achieved something no prime minister has done in 70 years. </p>
<p>MMP was designed to accurately translate people’s votes into parliamentary seats — and that is exactly what it has done.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A government for all: Jacinda Ardern affirms her consensus credentials in her election victory speech.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Policy moderation</h2>
<p>Ardern is a centrist, a <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-vows-to-govern-for-every-new-zealander-in-victory-speech.html">self-avowed</a> consensus politician. Her single-party majority government will not behave as the Labour and National administrations of the 1980s and 1990s did. </p>
<p>New Zealanders <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/politics/fpp-to-mmp/putting-it-to-the-vote">changed the electoral rules</a> because they were sick of <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/1st-term-4th-labour-government">radical swings</a> of the policy pendulum driven by single-party majority governments ruling on the basis of a minority of the vote. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
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<p>If MMP was designed to do anything it was to lock in policy moderation. In fact, in the early 1990s, the Treasury was concerned to implement its favoured neo-liberal reforms before the electoral system changed, precisely because it knew policy radicalism would be next to impossible under MMP. </p>
<p>Where the David Lange-led Labour and Bolger-led National governments of the late 20th century were doctrinaire and divisive, Ardern will be pragmatic and focused on results. For better or worse, she knows exactly where the median voter lives.</p>
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<h2>Diversity of representation</h2>
<p>For reasonable people, one of the purposes of an electoral system is to produce legislatures that broadly reflect the people who choose them. On at least one count MMP is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123125481/incoming-parliament-set-to-be-our-most-inclusive-with-increase-in-women-people-of-colour-and-lgbtq-members">heading in the right direction</a>. </p>
<p>In 1996, the first MMP parliament doubled the presence of women in the House of Representatives. By 2017 the proportion of women parliamentarians stood at 40%. That figure got another bump on Saturday, pushing the number of women in the 120-member legislature from 49 to 56. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-a-mandate-to-govern-new-zealand-alone-labour-must-now-decide-what-it-really-stands-for-144490">With a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for</a>
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<p>Nearly half (46.5%) of all parliamentarians are now women, the vast majority of them — 73% — members of the Labour or Green parties. This lifts New Zealand from 20th on the <a href="https://data.ipu.org/women-ranking?month=10&year=2020">international league table</a> to ninth (two spots behind Sweden).</p>
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<h2>MMP was the winner</h2>
<p>This election will change the way politics is done, discussed and practised in Aotearoa NZ due to three significant developments:</p>
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<li><p>Labour has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428600/the-red-tide-labour-wins-15-seats-held-by-national">won big</a> in the towns and in the country. National can no longer claim to be the party of rural people, and Labour can no longer be painted as the party of urban élites. In fact, the fundamental question confronting National now is: what kind of party are we?</p></li>
<li><p>Once special votes are counted, it is possible Labour will have over 50% of the vote. Not only will it be the first time this has happened since 1951, it will also mean most New Zealanders have chosen a politics of communitarianism over a politics of individualism.</p></li>
<li><p>For the first time in our history more people <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics">voted before</a> polling day than on the day itself (a <em>lot</em> more — advance voting this year reached the equivalent of 70% of all of the votes cast in 2017). The very nature of elections has changed, meaning the laws banning political activity on polling day need to be revised. (In the process, the problem of setting an election date to avoid an All Blacks Test might be avoided.) </p></li>
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<p>There is more to be digested, including that this parliament contains no small-party tail to <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/stop-the-tail-from-wagging-the-dog">wag the big party’s dog</a>. But right now one thing is clear: MMP gets two ticks for its performance this year. It has done exactly what it was designed to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The people have spoken, and MMP has delivered the right result — even if it means Labour governs alone.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444902020-10-18T01:02:55Z2020-10-18T01:02:55ZWith a mandate to govern New Zealand alone, Labour must now decide what it really stands for<p>A pandemic can change the foundations of a society. But if this happens in New Zealand over the next three years, it will be for reasons beyond the control of the sixth Labour government. When it comes to the fundamental structure of state and economy, Labour is broadly committed to the status quo. </p>
<p>This was confirmed on election night when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, wearing a Labour red dress before a National blue background, declared: “We will be a party that governs for every New Zealander.”</p>
<p>In times of upset, people yearn for normality — and Ardern’s Labour Party was <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">awarded a landslide</a> for achieving something close to this. The risk of a further COVID-19 outbreak is ever present, as today’s <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/123126179/coronavirus-one-new-community-case-of-covid19-in-auckland">announcement</a> of a community transmission case in Auckland reminded us. </p>
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<p>Nevertheless, <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300135573/election-2020-how-the-world-reacted-to-jacinda-arderns-landslide-victory">international spectators</a> view our pandemic response with a wistful gaze. At a time when many nations went sour on liberal democracy and rolled the populist dice, New Zealand appears on the world stage like a tribute act to third-way politics, a nostalgic throwback to the relative sanity and stability of the long 1990s. </p>
<p>Yet for many people who live in Aotearoa New Zealand, the status quo isn’t working, and hasn’t for some time. These tensions are only intensifying.</p>
<p>Housing unaffordability is <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/123012706/house-prices-still-expected-to-rise-but-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-buyers-report-shows">on the rise</a> again, with implications for wealth inequality and deprivation. This is compounded further by the cascading economic effects of the global pandemic and unconventional manoeuvres in monetary policy that are <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300126229/an-economy-built-on-rising-house-prices-is-property-our-path-to-recovery">pushing</a> house prices higher.</p>
<p>Without remedial action, this inequality will leave New Zealand society <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-020-09776-x">more exposed to future shocks</a>, not only from COVID-19, but also the multiplying risks of climate change, biodiversity collapse, digital disruption and international instability. Inequality ensures uneven impacts, a recipe for further discontent and conflict.</p>
<h2>No party for ideologues</h2>
<p>Even from a purely electoral perspective, the Labour Party can’t afford inaction. It is easy to forget how precarious the prime minister’s position was at the beginning of the year. She could boast enough policy wins to stack an <a href="https://twitter.com/nzlabour/status/1191198139723603968?lang=en">early campaign video</a>, yet hadn’t pulled a fiscal lever large enough to convince the public that her government was truly “<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-has-dethroned-gdp-as-a-measure-of-success-but-will-arderns-government-be-transformational-118262">transformational</a>”.</p>
<p>Entering a second term, her policy agenda is more recognisable by what she won’t do than what she will — no capital gains tax, no wealth tax, indeed no new taxes at all beyond a tweak for the highest earners.</p>
<p>This leaves us with the longstanding conundrum of what the Labour Party is and what it really stands for these days. Ardern and her colleagues are not ideologues, but <a href="https://medium.com/rsa-journal/a-new-ideological-era-2172f379a67d">no politics is without ideology</a> — a system of ideas, values and beliefs that orients its efforts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-new-parliament-turns-red-final-2020-election-results-at-a-glance-147757">New Zealand's new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance</a>
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<p>I’ve argued in the past that Ardern’s government has a spirit of <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/107174115/how-jacinda-ardern-embodies-the-spirit-of-republicanism">civic republicanism</a>. This has met with <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/08-10-2018/what-is-jacinda-arderns-big-idea/">reasonable scepticism</a>, yet in the midst of the pandemic it feels more relevant than ever. With borders drastically restricted, and old allies going wayward, there is a renewed sense of separateness, of independence in the world.</p>
<p>Might the pandemic seal New Zealand’s fate as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Commonwealthmen#ref1187742">Commonwealth of Oceana</a>, as a 21st century version of 17th century English republican John Harrington’s utopian island?</p>
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<h2>Kindness as a political virtue</h2>
<p>The first symptom of republicanism belongs to Ardern herself. She is the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3366/j.ctt1r2csg">active citizen</a> <em>par excellence</em>. She embodies civic commitment and public-spiritedness, along with a good dose of humility. Even in emergencies, she remains one of us: <em>primus inter pares</em>, “first among equals”.</p>
<p>Analysts of Ardern’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-honest-and-effective-what-makes-jacinda-ardern-an-authentic-leader-132513">political leadership</a> emphasise her openness, honesty, self-discipline, empathy and, above all, her authenticity. For civic republicans, the exercise of such virtues is the lifeblood of public life. Indeed, insofar as Ardern has a distinctive political agenda, it is centred on the virtue of kindness.</p>
<p>Arguably, this has displaced the more principled commitments that might guide substantive structural reform. But kindness also provided vital emotional leadership in the raw moments following the Christchurch mosque attacks and the outset of the pandemic.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election</a>
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<p>As the 18th century philosopher Montesquieu said, “Virtue in a republic is a most simple thing: it is a love of the republic.” Few could doubt Ardern’s devotion to the nation. But for the Labour Party, as for republicans, this has an exclusionary aspect.</p>
<p>Given the emphasis on citizens, republicans have tended to prioritise “us” over “them”. In the Athenian republic, only citizens could participate in democracy, and only wealthy men could be citizens — not women, not slaves, not foreigners.</p>
<p>Similarly, in New Zealand’s “team of five million”, only citizens have the full spectrum of rights and entitlements. For more than 300,000 temporary visa holders, whose compliance with pandemic restrictions was vital for containing the outbreak, there was minimal solidarity from government.</p>
<p>Many were frozen out of jobs during lockdown, unable to relocate due to visa conditions, and excluded from <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/can-of-beans-solution-for-out-of-work-migrants">social welfare support</a>. Others were stuck outside the country <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/temporary-visa-holders-can-return">until very recently</a>, unable to re-enter. From a liberal or internationalist perspective, this is hard to swallow. But there is a nativist strain <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-06-2017/as-we-gear-up-for-an-election-a-new-poll-reveals-nzers-views-on-immigration/">within the Labour Party</a> which will relish these harder borders.</p>
<p>None of this is to say that Labour’s politics aren’t liberal or social democratic. Ideologies can be mixed in the same way that economies can be. It is to say, more modestly, that some of the qualities that characterise the Ardern government align with civic republicanism. </p>
<p>And this helps to resist the lazy analysis that this government is nothing more than a continuation of what came before, another phase in an undifferentiable centrist blob.</p>
<h2>Neither socialist nor purely liberal</h2>
<p>But where to next? Firstly, this is not a government of pure socialist intentions. <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-matthew-hooton-trust-jacinda-ardern-to-get-us-through/NHCKFWDKPO2DHND3BPP4FVP7XA/">Accusations of this kind</a> come from a place of confusion, delusion, or plain mischief. Socialism, simply put, involves collective ownership of the means of production. </p>
<p>This government already relinquished an unprecedented opportunity to socialise the economy when it implemented its wage subsidy scheme at the outset of the pandemic.</p>
<p>Public debt is growing precisely to keep private businesses in private hands. Labour’s resistance to substantive tax reform, even to reduce the debt it <a href="https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106385/grant-robertson-remains-committed-reducing-government-debt-long-term-saying-modern">insists it must pay back</a>, reveals its abandonment of redistribution as a practicable tool for social change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-promised-transformation-instead-the-times-transformed-her-142900">NZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her</a>
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<p>Secondly, this is not a government of purely liberal intentions. It is ambivalent about the free flow of people and capital. Attorney-General David Parker, in particular, has prioritised citizens through restrictions on overseas buyers of housing and the “national interest” test for foreign investment.</p>
<p>It is notable that former National prime minister John Key, guided by <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/16-01-2017/liberals-got-walloped-in-2016-can-post-liberalism-rise-from-the-ashes/">a vision of global liberalism</a> that is increasingly endangered, is <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/newstalk-zb/news/covid-19-coronavirus-john-key-says-nz-should-let-in-rich-americans-who-want-to-build-a-house/DN2KIFSCWX5IKYX56NCBSYOMWE/">still railing against</a> this.</p>
<p>Ardern’s government is also unembarrassed about a more active role for the state. Its approach for housing is illustrative — not just its boost to state-owned housing, but especially its embrace of the state’s potential as a developer providing houses directly to market.</p>
<p>Liberals see this as mere interference, but republicans tolerate government intervention wherever it improves the lives of citizens. In the wake of the pandemic, voters will be prone to agree.</p>
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<h2>The danger of losing trust</h2>
<p>This touches on the defining feature of civic republicanism: its commitment to <a href="https://books.google.co.nz/books/about/Republicanism.html?id=AOfYtIyWOZsC&redir_esc=y">freedom from domination</a>. Republicans accept the kinds of intervention that liberals fear, as long as they free people from situations of oppression and subjugation.</p>
<p>Domination should also be broadly understood to include regulations, poverty, sexism, racism, environmental degradation, employment relations — anything that thwarts our cherished projects.</p>
<p>This is where the republican spirit mostly clearly intersects with the sixth Labour government’s interest in well-being. The purpose of worrying about well-being is to improve people’s capabilities to live the kinds of lives they most value. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
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<p>Because the aforementioned forms of oppression curtail such freedoms, we have a duty to overturn them, through intervention if necessary. Well-being economics isn’t merely about measurement; it is an <a href="https://books.google.co.nz/books/about/Development_as_Freedom.html?id=NQs75PEa618C&redir_esc=y">emancipatory project</a>.</p>
<p>Ardern’s government is most vulnerable to criticism when it falls short of this ideal — for example, the <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/theyre-stealing-our-children-their-beds-oranga-tamariki-blasted-after-report-into-baby-uplifts">oppressive practices</a> of Oranga Tamariki or ineffective infrastructure development. If voters won’t punish Ardern for not being socialist or liberal enough, they might still penalise her for failing to make real these republican impulses.</p>
<p>It is said that, in politics, what lifts you up is what will eventually drag you down. When the virtues of openness fail to strengthen transparency, when state intervention fails to deliver outcomes competently or effectively, when appeals to “the people” paper over vital differences, when the politics of kindness fail to prevent suffering — this is where trust will be lost.</p>
<p>The danger of electoral dominance is becoming your own worst enemy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hall receives funding from the National Science Challenge for Biological Heritage. </span></em></p>In politics, what lifts you up can drag you down. To avoid that, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government will have to examine its political soul.David Hall, Senior Researcher in Politics, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1477572020-10-17T12:19:23Z2020-10-17T12:19:23ZNew Zealand’s new parliament turns red: final 2020 election results at a glance<p><em>The article was updated on Friday November 6, 2020, to reflect the final official figures released by the Electoral Commission.</em></p>
<p>Labour is celebrating a landslide victory tonight after winning 49% of the vote (confirmed as 50% after special votes were counted). The result means Labour could govern alone — <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-polls-showing-labour-could-govern-alone-is-new-zealand-returning-to-the-days-of-elected-dictatorship-146918">the first time</a> this has happened since New Zealand introduced a mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1993. </p>
<p>In her victory speech, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the result gave Labour “the mandate to accelerate our [COVID-19] response and our recovery. And tomorrow we start”.</p>
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<p>Earlier, National Party leader Judith Collins, whose party only won 26.8% of the vote (reduced to 25.6% in the final count), promised to be a “robust opposition” and “hold the government to account for failed promises”.</p>
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<p>You can read the analysis of the results by our five political experts <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-decides-2020-5-experts-on-the-big-election-results-148245">here</a>.</p>
<p>In the new parliament, Labour will have 65 seats — four more than the 61 needed to form government. National has 33, the Green Party ten, ACT ten and the Māori Party is expected to return to parliament with one seat (later increased to two seats after special votes increased the party vote to 1.2%).</p>
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<p>The numbers are a reversal of the 2017 results, when Labour polled 36.9%, National had 44.4% of the vote and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters became the kingmaker. </p>
<p>New Zealanders had to wait almost a month before Peters announced he would form a coalition with the Labour Party, becoming deputy prime minister. The Green Party joined the coalition in a confidence and supply arrangement.</p>
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<p>In this election, NZ First was ousted from parliament, after the party failed to reach the 5% threshold and neither of its candidates managed to win an electorate seat. </p>
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<p>Five parties gained seats in parliament. The Māori Party is expected to win one of seven Māori electorate seats and return to parliament even though it only achieved 1% of the party vote (1.2% in the final count). None of the other minor parties won electorate seats or reached the 5% party vote threshold.</p>
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<p>Compared to previous elections, record numbers of New Zealanders voted early in 2020. A day before the election, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428576/election-2020-advance-votes-total-just-under-2-million">almost 2 million people</a> had already cast their vote. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-how-might-record-advance-voting-numbers-influence-the-final-outcome-148182">NZ election 2020: how might record advance voting numbers influence the final outcome?</a>
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<h2>Results of the referendums</h2>
<p>People also voted on two referendums: whether the <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/endoflifechoice/index.html">End of Life Choice Act 2019</a> should come into force and whether the <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/cannabis/index.html">recreational use of cannabis should become legal</a>. </p>
<p>The results for those are now finalised. Almost two thirds of the vote was in support of the introduction of the Right to Life legislation.</p>
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<p>The vote for legalising the recreational use of cannabis was much closer but the majority favoured the No decision.</p>
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<h2>2017 election results</h2>
<p>In 2017, the National Party won 44.4% of the votes and on election night, then prime minister Bill English <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-votes-for-conservatism-and-the-status-quo-84568">celebrated victory</a>. </p>
<p>But NZ First won 7.5% and held the balance of power. It was the third time for NZ First leader Winston Peters to become the veto player in the government-formation process. </p>
<p>After almost four weeks of negotiations, he opted to go into coalition with Labour, with the Green Party in a confidence and supply role. For the first time under New Zealand’s MMP electoral system, the new government was not led by the party that had won the largest number of seats.</p>
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<p>Jacinda Ardern <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-to-become-nz-prime-minister-following-coalition-announcement-85996">became prime minister</a> in an extraordinary period in New Zealand’s political history. Just three months earlier, Ardern had been the deputy leader of a Labour Party polling in minor party territory.</p>
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Labour’s landslide election win means it could govern alone, without support from any of the other parties.Liz Minchin, Executive EditorMichael Lund, Commissioning Editor, The ConversationWes Mountain, Social Media + Visual Storytelling EditorVeronika Meduna, Science, Health + Environment New Zealand Editor, The ConversationFinlay Macdonald, New Zealand Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1482452020-10-17T12:18:27Z2020-10-17T12:18:27ZJacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide — 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364050/original/file-20201017-23-9df57a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3982%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The pre-election polls suggested it might happen. But the fact that Labour and Jacinda Ardern have provisionally won an outright majority and the mandate to govern New Zealand alone is more than an electoral landslide — it is a tectonic shift. </p>
<p>You can see the full results and compare them with the 2017 election <a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-at-a-glance-graphs-and-tables-147757">here</a>.</p>
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<p>This is also not a result the mixed member proportional (<a href="https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/">MMP</a>) voting system was <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-polls-showing-labour-could-govern-alone-is-new-zealand-returning-to-the-days-of-elected-dictatorship-146918">designed to deliver</a>. The challenge for Ardern and Labour now will be to translate that mandate — and the fact that their natural coalition partner the Greens have performed strongly too — into the “transformational” agenda promised since 2017.</p>
<p>For now, there is much to digest in the sheer scale of the swing against National and the likely shape of the next parliament. Our panel of political analysts deliver their initial responses and predictions.</p>
<h2>Labour rewarded for its COVID response</h2>
<p><strong>Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka/Victoria University of Wellington</strong></p>
<p>It’s an historic MMP result, and that is down to one thing: COVID-19. Labour and Ardern made the right calls. Comparative analysis of COVID responses internationally shows it’s not just a matter of what you do, it’s a matter of whether you do it soon enough. Labour did that and have been rewarded electorally.</p>
<p>The polls were largely in line with what looks like the final result will be — the Greens have done a bit better, as has Labour, and National appreciably worse. It’s unlikely they can claw that back to where earlier polls had them. Special votes will be roughly 15% of the total and they are likely to go more in Labour’s and the Green’s direction, as they did in 2017.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
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<p>The swing away from National is pretty dramatic. If it is indeed the first single party majority under MMP it’s very unlikely to happen again for a long time. The big question is whether Labour wants to do a deal with the Greens when they don’t have to. </p>
<p>It might be in their interests to do so in the long run — in 2023 Labour probably won’t be in such a strong position. If they have a good relationship with the Greens it might stand them in better stead, but it’s a tough strategic call.</p>
<p>As for New Zealand First, according to analysis of the Reid Research polls over the past months, most of their vote has gone to Labour. And that is simply another reflection of this being a COVID election. Labour was rewarded for protecting New Zealanders, particularly the most vulnerable — and that is in the traditions of the Labour Party.</p>
<h2>Labour win masks smaller victories</h2>
<p><strong>Bronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury</strong></p>
<p>With a record 1.9 million people casting an early vote, this was always going to be an election with a difference. Younger voters also enrolled in historic numbers, with a significant increase in those aged 18 to 29 enrolling across the country. A generation’s hopes and aspirations now hang in the balance. </p>
<p>Labour’s victory offers the party command of the house, an unprecedented situation in an MMP government. But it masks some other remarkable achievements. The Māori Party’s fortunes have risen, with very little national media coverage. </p>
<p>ACT has been transformed from a tiny grouping of 13,075 party votes in 2017 to win an astonishing 185,723 party votes this year. </p>
<p>The Greens defied a dominant mantra that small parties who enter governance arrangements are eclipsed in the next election. They maintained their distinctive brand and should bring ten MPs into the House. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-promised-transformation-instead-the-times-transformed-her-142900">NZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300135281/election-2020-greens-chle-swarbrick-takes-auckland-central-in-shock-win">epic struggle</a> for Auckland Central by Chlöe Swarbrick (Green) and Helen White (Labour) has pushed up both the Green and the Labour vote — a microcosm of the wider shift to a progressive left electorate bloc. </p>
<p>The challenge now is for Labour to decide to open this victory to support parties. What happens next matters as much as the election itself. Will a Labour government led by the most popular prime minister in New Zealand’s history be incrementalist or transformative in tackling the biggest challenges any government has faced in peacetime?</p>
<h2>The Māori Party returns</h2>
<p><strong>Lindsey Te Ata o Tau MacDonald, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Canterbury</strong></p>
<p>Tonight demonstrates that Māori voters continue to waver between the Māori Party via its electorate MPs and Labour via the party vote. </p>
<p>On one side there is the legacy of Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples, and the founding generation of “by Māori, for Māori, with Māori” in the post-settlement era. Rawiri Waititi, who may well take Tamiti Coffey’s seat in Waiariki, is the living embodiment of the success of that struggle. </p>
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<p>The other side is exemplified by Koro Wetere’s triumph in 1975 in creating the Waitangi Tribunal. These two stories — struggle via protest and gradual legislative change — were deeply intertwined in Labour’s grip on the Māori seats until 2003. Then, in one grand racist gesture, Labour proved itself a colonial government by taking the last Māori land, the foreshore and seabed, by statute. </p>
<p>Māori voters have not forgotten the deep betrayal of that removal of their property rights. Hence the close races tonight for those who truly inherit the mantle of the Māori party’s founders, such as Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. </p>
<p>John Tamihere’s close run in Tāmaki Makaurau is more just politics, Auckland style, as usual. He may be wondering why he didn’t go with ACT, which has brought in interesting new Māori talent.</p>
<h2>What happened to the ‘shy Tories’?</h2>
<p><strong>Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland</strong></p>
<p>Two aspects are interesting in this post-MMP history-making election. The first is that Labour has made significant gains in the regions. It is now not solely a party of the cities — it looks to have claimed seats that have long been forgotten as bellwethers (Hamilton East and West), as well as those provincial hubs in Taranaki, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay and Northland. </p>
<p>This suggests that while New Zealand First had been gifted the Provincial Growth Fund to deliver regional economic growth to the regions, it was Labour that reaped the rewards of this largesse. </p>
<p>While COVID-19 is definitely part of the reason for Labour’s success, the support is likely to have come from across the political spectrum, bringing its own challenges.</p>
<p>This leads into the second interesting point. Judith Collins reportedly did not share internal polling with her caucus, but public polls suggested National support was in the 30% region. Collins argued the result would be higher, that there were shy Tories who would turn out for National. </p>
<p>In fact, this result suggests it was “shy lefties” the polls had failed to capture. And it appears undecided voters decided National was not for them this time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-as-the-ultimate-political-survivor-judith-collins-prepares-for-her-ultimate-test-144488">NZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test</a>
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<h2>With such a mandate, Ardern must deliver</h2>
<p><strong>Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey University</strong></p>
<p>The Prime Minister asked for a mandate and she got it. Final numbers won’t be known for a couple of weeks, but the headline result was one last seen in New Zealand in 1993: a political party in possession of a clear parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>All the same, Jacinda Ardern will be chatting with Green Party leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw (and perhaps the Māori Party, depending on events in Waiariki) about how Labour and the Greens might work together in the 53rd Parliament. Perhaps a formal coalition, but more likely a compact of some sort. </p>
<p>She doesn’t need the Greens to govern and their leverage is limited. But a lot of people who voted for Labour would not have done so under other circumstances (no Ardern, no COVID). At some point they will return home to National. Labour will already be thinking about 2023 and Ardern knows she will need parliamentary friends in the future.</p>
<p>But right now Ardern has a chance to consign the centre-right to the opposition benches for the next couple of electoral cycles. There is a chasm between the combined Labour/Green vote (57%) and National/ACT (35%). ACT had a good night but the centre-right had a shocker. National now has a real problem with rejuvenation. With a low party vote, and having lost so many electorates, their ranks will look old and threadbare in 2023.</p>
<p>This election is tectonic. Ardern has led Labour to its biggest victory since Norman Kirk, and enters the Labour pantheon with Savage, Lange and Clark. Once special votes are counted, Labour could be the first party since 1951 to win a clear majority of the popular vote. </p>
<p>It has won in the towns and in the country. It won the party vote in virtually every single electorate. Labour candidates, many of them women (look for a large influx of new women MPs), have won seats long held by National. </p>
<p>Tonight Labour is looking like the natural party of government in Aotearoa New Zealand. Ardern has her mandate — now she needs to deliver.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Jacinda Ardern and Labour are returned to power in a landslide, making New Zealand political history in the process.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityBronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of CanterburyJack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLindsey Te Ata o Tu MacDonald, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1481822020-10-15T22:29:29Z2020-10-15T22:29:29ZNZ election 2020: how might record advance voting numbers influence the final outcome?<p>With under 48 hours until polls close in the 2020 election, 1,742,960 New Zealanders have already made an <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/">advance vote</a>. This represents 67% of the total number of votes cast in the 2017 general election and is the most advance votes ever cast in a New Zealand general election. </p>
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<p>Is it possible to read the tea leaves in these numbers and predict what’s going to happen on Saturday? </p>
<p>Earlier this century and facing plummeting voter turnout, the Electoral Commission surveyed non-voters as to why they had not cast a vote. Respondents said they simply forgot or were otherwise busy on election day, away or overseas. </p>
<p>To mitigate these factors, the commission has <a href="https://vote.nz/">made it easier</a> for people to vote when and where it suits them. It has opened polling booths two weeks ahead of the election day in a range of locations, including school and church halls, mosques, marae, universities, clubrooms, libraries and pop-ups in retail spaces. </p>
<p>As a strategy to increase the total vote, this appears to have worked. Turnout <a href="http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indicators/Home/Trust%20and%20participation%20in%20government/voter-turnout.aspx">has risen</a> from a record low of 74.2% of enrolled voters in 2011 to 77.9% in 2014 and 79.01% in 2017. </p>
<p>Advance voting is not the only factor in these statistics. Voter advice applications such as Massey University’s <a href="https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/10903"></a><a href="https://onthefence.co.nz">On The Fence</a> have helped first-time voters feel more confident about the voting process. This has led to higher youth voter turnout, contributing to the rise in overall turnout. </p>
<h2>Who benefits from advance voting?</h2>
<p>Our major political parties have cottoned on to the advantages they can gain by promoting advance voting. Core major party voters tend to decide their voting choices well before the official campaign period. It’s therefore in major party interests to lock those votes in before random campaign events shake voters’ confidence in their choices at the last minute. </p>
<p>Parties only have to look back at the 2002 election to see the impact of this. When Labour entered the campaign it was hovering around 53% support. Following a random <a href="https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/3-news-corngate-interview-with-helen-clark-2002">media storm</a> over genetically engineered corn, which blew over as quickly as it arrived, Labour’s vote dropped over ten points to 41.26% on election day. </p>
<p>It was therefore no surprise to see our major party leaders, Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-election-2020-pm-jacinda-ardern-one-of-first-to-vote-as-early-voting-begins/M64HO3OY4V27UEB4B256X2XUCE/">casting their votes</a> on the first weekend polls were open, projecting confidence and role-modelling the acceptability of advance voting. Green co-leader James Shaw and ACT leader David Seymour also voted that weekend, hopeful of locking in the opinion poll gains their parties had made in the middle of the campaign period.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-5-experts-on-the-final-debate-and-the-campaigns-winners-and-losers-ahead-of-the-big-decision-147982">NZ election 2020: 5 experts on the final debate and the campaign's winners and losers ahead of the big decision</a>
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<p>New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has said he will wait until tomorrow to cast his vote. On the grounds of “clanger after clanger after clanger being dropped every day now”, he has <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nz-first-leader-winston-peters-labels-push-for-early-voting-a-fear-campaign/H2UQUV2PBWQZBNKOJVCZPME6R4/">warned</a> “only a fool tests the water with both feet”. He has encouraged voters to wait until election day so they know all the facts before casting their votes. </p>
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<p>This isn’t just Peters playing amateur philosopher. Currently languishing in the polls, it has never been more important for New Zealand First to discourage advance voting. Peters will know that many of his supporters in previous elections have been protest voters who opted for New Zealand First as a matter of last resort because they liked neither of the major parties’ offerings or leaders. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the party, some of the clangers this week are own goals. News about the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/428454/exclusive-the-secret-case-of-the-nz-first-foundation">financial scandal</a> concerning the New Zealand First Foundation is more likely to hurt than benefit the party’s election fortunes this close to election day. </p>
<h2>The impact of late strategic voting</h2>
<p>Plenty of voters are still to cast their votes today and tomorrow. History shows many will end up voting the same way they would have two months ago, irrespective of what has transpired during the campaign. </p>
<p>But a good proportion will also have been waiting for last night’s opinion poll to decide how to strategically cast their vote to influence the composition of the next parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
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<p>If it looks like their preferred party is “safe”, they may give their votes to a minor party to help them form part of a final coalition. If their preferred party is looking unsafe, they may give their votes to a minor party to send a message of disappointment for poor performance. </p>
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<p>Since the MMP system began, the minor party vote has been highest in the elections where the pre-election poll gap between the major parties has been widest. With last night’s gap between Labour and National remaining a <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-strong-lead-over-national-greens-climb">whopping 15 points</a>, it looks like the Greens and ACT will be the beneficiaries of late strategic voting, not either of the major parties. </p>
<p>This won’t be the result Ardern and Collins were hoping for when they cast their advance votes two weeks ago, but democracy in New Zealand will ultimately be stronger for it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Robinson is one of the leaders of the Design+Democracy Project at Massey University which has produced On The Fence.</span></em></p>With more votes cast before election day than on it, late strategic voting could make all the difference.Claire Robinson, Professor of Communication Design, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479822020-10-15T19:09:40Z2020-10-15T19:09:40ZNZ election 2020: 5 experts on the final debate and the campaign’s winners and losers ahead of the big decision<p>After a long and COVID-delayed campaign, New Zealand’s general election is just a day away. For the fourth and final time, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Judith Collins met last night for a televised debate. With a record number of <a href="https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/">advance votes</a> already cast, however, there is a sense of their respective fates being mostly sealed. </p>
<p>Furthermore, last night’s debate was prefaced by a final 1 News Colmar Brunton poll showing little change in the major parties’ fortunes, but a lift for Labour’s likely coalition partner the Greens.</p>
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<p>Here, our five experts respond to the debate and offer their concluding thoughts on the campaign, the performance of the leaders and parties, and the implications for New Zealand’s 53rd parliament.</p>
<h2>A generational shift</h2>
<p><strong>Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey University</strong></p>
<p>Those noises off you heard during the final leaders’ debate were the sounds of the smaller parties jostling: some for influence, some for relevance and some for survival. For all the speculation that Labour may be able to govern alone, the 15 parties contesting the election not called Labour or National matter a great deal to the eventual outcome. </p>
<p>For one thing, even if Jacinda Ardern goes to bed on Saturday night in command of a parliamentary majority (and the latest poll suggests that possibility may be slipping away), she may well try to cobble together an arrangement with the Greens and the Māori Party — assuming the first makes it to 5%, which is looking increasingly likely, and the second takes at least one of the Māori seats. </p>
<p>She will have an eye on constructing a coalition that shuts the centre-right out of power for a generation.</p>
<p>National have a small party problem of a different sort — the one where the party you have kept on life support for years suddenly flicks the switch and starts hoovering up your vote. ACT’s caucus is presently 2.3% the size of National’s — by Sunday that could balloon closer to 25%. National is in danger of becoming a smallish party itself. If that occurs the party will be looking at an extended period of rebuilding, which may include replacing Collins as leader. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-why-gender-stereotypes-still-affect-perceptions-of-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-as-leaders-147837">NZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders</a>
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<p>You could see some of these things in play in last night’s debate. Ardern largely refused to insult anyone or rule anything out in the post-election washup, other than promising she would not continue as leader if she lost. </p>
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<p>Collins played to her base and angled to bring back people who have decamped to New Zealand First or the New Conservatives. Ardern playing the long game, Collins doing her best to stave off an electoral towelling. </p>
<p>And all the while those noises off continued, particularly from a New Zealand First beginning to show signs of a rather late resurgence.</p>
<h2>A campaign of missed opportunities</h2>
<p><strong>Bronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury</strong></p>
<p>Disasters such as a global pandemic present opportunities for radical policy shifts, but that hasn’t happen in this election campaign. Both major parties relied on the conventional idea of economic growth as the driver of future recovery: investing in growth through training and employment (Labour) or cutting taxes to boost consumer spending (National). </p>
<p>With the focus on COVID risks, there has been little opportunity for debate about our preparedness for the other, slower moving disasters facing New Zealand. Rising house prices, small business priorities and challenges facing tourism have featured often, but any real discussion of structural reform (a wealth or capital gains tax, universal basic income or services) has been shut down firmly by both major parties. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-promised-transformation-instead-the-times-transformed-her-142900">NZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her</a>
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<p>When this year’s 18-year-old first-time voters turn 58 their climate will be virtually unrecognisable from the one we know now. Yet a major Environment Ministry climate report released on the day went unremarked in the final debate, and there was no discussion of the wider burdens that will confront first time voters their whole lives: growing inequality, serious urban water shortages, wildfires, drought, flooding and coastal inundation. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, there were winners in this election campaign: the voters who seized the opportunity to enrol right up to election day, turning out to advance vote in their thousands, many for the first time, including Māori, young people, the homeless and prisoners serving under-three-year sentences (who regained the right they’d lost in a previous law change). </p>
<p>Political debate will only really change when their voices are heard.</p>
<h2>Landslide to Labour</h2>
<p><strong>Rawiri Taonui, Chair Te Rūnanga Māori, Ako Aotearoa (Massey University)</strong></p>
<p>Jacinda Ardern lost the first two leaders debates with over-philosophising 10-second soundbites. She won the last two on substance, principle and her word. National leader Judith Collins won the first two because she had better one-liners. She lost the third because she yelled, and the fourth because she called Ardern a liar. </p>
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<p>With ructions over Collins making “policy on the hoof” and a lack of discipline in the ranks, all has clearly not been well with National. So, some predictions:</p>
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<li><p>With two referendums and an electorate seeking reassurance, the highest voter turnout since 1999 and an increased youth vote.</p></li>
<li><p>A massive win to Labour, 58 to 62 seats and a record 15 Māori MPs. The Greens to return three Māori MPs. A post-election question — will Labour promote more Māori into senior cabinet roles? </p></li>
<li><p>National in the low 30s or high 20s, meaning a drop from eight to four Māori MPs. Act returns three Māori MPs. With more Māori on the left and fewer on the right, expect an increase in racist rhetoric on kaupapa (principle or policy) such as Ihumātao, Whānau Ora and Māori representation.</p></li>
<li><p>Having completed a constructive rebuild after the debacle of 2017 and despite a racist Māori electoral option that prevents former supporters returning to the Māori roll until 2024, the Māori Party has been impressive. They may take at least one Māori electorate. If not, they have a platform for 2023.</p></li>
<li><p>New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to retire, receive a knighthood, and open a company conducting polls in future elections. As he says, accuracy is everything.</p></li>
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<h2>Are televised debates still relevant?</h2>
<p><strong>Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland</strong></p>
<p>In 1960, the first live debate between the two major candidates for the presidency of the United States was aired on television. There were four debates, over 100 million people watched at least one, and they led to a four point increase in turnout. Political commentator Walter Lippman labelled them a “bold innovation which […] could not now be abandoned.”</p>
<p>Fast forward to New Zealand 2020, where we have witnessed four televised debates between Ardern and Collins, and several between the minor parties. While over one million viewers tuned into the first debate for at least one minute, do they still represent the “key democratic moment” that a commentator once claimed? Have we learnt anything new about what our next government will do?</p>
<p>Maybe not. The format doesn’t allow for in-depth discussion of policies, but perhaps we find out how much our leaders care about what they are selling. We now know that Collins has a capacity for quick-witted retorts, is unafraid to interject relentlessly and to swing easily between positivity and attack, although last night’s debate was calmer than previous ones. And we were reminded that while Ardern might prefer being relentlessly positive, she can be aggressive when pushed. </p>
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<p>But maybe the value of these debates is in the way they magnify the political personalities of our leaders. We have seen how Ardern and Collins respond under pressure in the spotlight, how they manage their emotions and their energy levels. After this very long campaign, we know a bit more about their character, their qualities and flaws. Perhaps that is a good enough reason for televised debates to continue.</p>
<h2>An election against the odds</h2>
<p><strong>Grant Duncan, Associate Professor for the School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University</strong></p>
<p>An election in the midst of a sharp economic recession may sound ominous for a sitting government. Holding a free and fair election with good turnout during a global pandemic may sound impossible. But New Zealand has confounded such concerns.</p>
<p>Advance voting has been higher than ever, promising a good turnout. The governing Labour Party and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern are leading the opinion polls, despite the economic pain. So, Ardern is likely to get a second term in office.</p>
<p>Labour’s election results have risen from 25% in 2014, to 37% in 2017 after Ardern took the helm — and now their polling points towards the mid-forties. This is quite a political feat, especially given (or is it due to?) the crises confronted this year.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-as-the-ultimate-political-survivor-judith-collins-prepares-for-her-ultimate-test-144488">NZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test</a>
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<p>The election campaign has been open and robust — with relatively little peddling of misinformation and conspiracy theories. In the final week, Collins was in attack mode, even alleging Ardern had lied about border staff testing. Yet the last debate ended on a note of mutual appreciation, with Ardern calling for our politics not to become too polarised.</p>
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<p>If anyone has cause to complain, it’s the smaller parties who struggle to be heard above the Labour versus National match. </p>
<p>For all that, in my eyes, the Electoral Commission is the winner this time. New Zealanders are enjoying a safe and fair democratic vote during an extraordinary period. Kiwis may shrug this off or take it for granted, but democracies around the world should look and learn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It was a campaign like no other, and while there were missed opportunities and lapses of judgement, the fact New Zealanders are voting in a safe and fair election is reason enough to celebrate.Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityBronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of CanterburyGrant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityJennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRawiri Taonui, Chair, Te Rūnanga Māori, Ako Aotearoa — National Institute of Excellence in Tertiary Teaching, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1478372020-10-14T19:11:48Z2020-10-14T19:11:48ZNZ election 2020: why gender stereotypes still affect perceptions of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leaders<p>Women leading both of New Zealand’s largest political parties is something to celebrate. Watching Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins go head to head in three televised or online pre-election debates should surely dispel any doubt about whether women are up to the demands of leadership at the highest level. </p>
<p>As tonight’s <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/tvnzs-your-vote-2020-coverage-debates-polls-and-election-specials">final debate</a> will also surely demonstrate, both women are confident, assertive and resilient under pressure, attributes widely expected of leaders. And yet gender bias continues to define aspects of their careers and performance.</p>
<p>While the format has offered limited in-depth policy discussion, the debates have been a far cry from the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-biden-debate-a-locker-room-brawl-in-the-midst-of-covid-19-crisis-147329">gladiatorial masculinity</a>” displayed by Donald Trump in the recent US presidential debate with Joe Biden. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, subtle but still influential gendered dynamics are at play in the New Zealand election campaign. Ardern and Collins navigate these dynamics in quite distinctive ways, which may help explain why they each <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-twice-likely-evoke-feelings-hope-than-judith-collins-among-adults-survey">evoke such different emotions</a> in voters. But how do people form these opinions?</p>
<p>Even without formal study, everyone develops their own ideas about what good leadership involves. Researchers call these ideas “<a href="http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/industrial-organizational-psychology/leadership-and-management/implicit-theory-of-leadership/">implicit leadership theories</a>”, and they shape how leaders are perceived. </p>
<p>While these personal theories <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1056492610375989">might not be correct</a> — in the sense that someone might value leader behaviours that research shows are actually ineffective or harmful — they are nonetheless influential.</p>
<h2>What makes an effective leader?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1048984317304988">Research</a> on these implicit theories shows that behaviours traditionally associated with masculinity are more likely to be seen as leader-like: this means when some people think “leader” their default is also to think “male”. </p>
<p>This results in people expecting leaders to be “strong” in the sense of being “tough” and “commanding”, attributes associated with traditional expectations of men. Similarly, being intimidating, power-hungry, risk-taking, demanding and domineering are often qualities people link to leadership. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-promised-transformation-instead-the-times-transformed-her-142900">NZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her</a>
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<p>However, a significant body of research suggests these behaviours are not, in fact, the <a href="https://hbr.org/2013/08/why-do-so-many-incompetent-men">key qualities</a> that make for effective leaders. Rather, they tend to undermine innovation, inhibit quality decision making and fail to draw out the best from people. Instead, humility, collaboration, team building and inspiring people to work for a common good are more important. These are also qualities women often exhibit.</p>
<p>But because they are judged against an <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jasp.12445">implicitly masculine norm</a>, women continue to find it harder to attain leadership roles, and to then succeed in those roles.</p>
<h2>Playing to others’ expectations</h2>
<p>Given all this, it is not surprising that Judith Collins often adopts an <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122852234/election-2020-this-is-nonsense--judith-collins-on-the-attack-in-first-leaders-debate-as-her-campaign-comes-under-pressure?rm=a">overtly combative, masculine style</a> to appeal principally to a more traditionally-minded voter base. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/judith-collins-new-zealands-anti-ardern-whose-hero-is-thatcher">clear echoes</a> of the former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher — the so-called Iron Lady — in Collins’s approach. She <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8614219/Judith-Collins-brands-New-Zealand-PM-Jacinda-Ardern-totally-useless.html">presents</a> herself as a potential prime minister who would be tough, in command, in control, brooking neither dissent nor failure. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-as-the-ultimate-political-survivor-judith-collins-prepares-for-her-ultimate-test-144488">NZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test</a>
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<p>The reality of gendered leadership expectations means that to do otherwise would risk Collins not being seen as leader-like by those whose implicit leadership theories favour such traditionally masculine notions.</p>
<p>But this is not a guaranteed winning strategy by any means. As British leadership scholar Keith Grint <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0263237310000277">argues</a>, it’s generally unwise for leaders to proclaim complex problems can be solved by way of simple solutions. </p>
<h2>Strong vs nice</h2>
<p>Collins is also caught by what researchers call the “<a href="https://women.govt.nz/inspiring-action-for-gender-balance/double-bind-dilemma-women-leadership-damned-if-you-do-doomed-if">double bind</a>” that affects women leaders. If they display traditionally feminine behaviours, focussing on relationships and concern for others, they risk being seen as a good woman but not an effective leader. If they display masculine behaviours they risk being seen as a competent leader but a “not nice” woman. </p>
<p>The more Collins plays to traditional expectations of a combative, masculine style of leadership, therefore, the more she risks alienating people — including within her own voter base.</p>
<p>Ardern is equally at risk of the double bind but in the opposite way. Her emphasis on being kind and showing concern for others means she is seen by some as a nice woman but <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-election-vote-disillusioned">not an effective leader</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/contrasting-styles-some-substance-5-experts-on-the-first-tv-leaders-debate-of-nzs-election-146670">Contrasting styles, some substance: 5 experts on the first TV leaders' debate of NZ's election</a>
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<h2>Soft skills, tough challenges</h2>
<p>However, “sensitivity” — meaning to be caring, sympathetic, compassionate, kind, empathetic, selfless and friendly — <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1048984317304988">also features</a> in implicit leadership theories. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://books.google.co.nz/books?hl=en&lr=&id=yEZJAgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=interpersonal+skills+for+leadership&ots=Jalv6ZTjS9&sig=x0WkR9ty2SWvZ_DeiobZtZ6Pfsk#v=onepage&q=interpersonal%20skills%20for%20leadership&f=false">evidence to suggest</a> that these so-called “soft skills” are, in fact, key to effective leadership. So, while Ardern’s style risks lacking credibility with those who cleave to more traditional, masculine views of leadership, this does not mean she is an ineffective leader.</p>
<p>In a political contest between two very determined, confident and resilient women, it should be remembered that some voters will inevitably be influenced by gendered preconceptions of what makes a good leader — and that this is just one more challenge such female leaders face.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Suze Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As they prepare for the final TV leaders’ debate, Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins share the same challenge: overcoming voter perceptions based on masculine definitions of leadership.Suze Wilson, Senior Lecturer, Executive Development, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1429002020-10-13T18:27:15Z2020-10-13T18:27:15ZNZ election 2020: Jacinda Ardern promised transformation — instead, the times transformed her<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363073/original/file-20201013-17-qb2t8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C0%2C3742%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three years ago everything felt so different. Our borders were open, no one knew what PPE stood for, and social distancing was something people did when they felt awkward at parties. </p>
<p>Jacinda Ardern had not long taken over leadership of the New Zealand Labour Party. Amid breathless talk of “stardust”, “Jacindamania” and “transformation”, she was busy hauling the party out of the polling doldrums towards 36.9% of the vote at the 2017 election — and the prime ministership.</p>
<p>Then a lot of things happened. A white supremacist <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/chch-terror">murdered</a> 51 of our people at two Christchurch mosques. Whakaari/White Island <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/408425/whakaari-white-island-eruption-death-toll-rises-to-21">erupted</a>, killing 21 and injuring more. And a global pandemic spread, leading to two extended periods of lockdown in New Zealand and a decision by Ardern to <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2008/S00160/new-zealand-election-date-postponed-as-covid-19-cases-rise.htm">postpone</a> the election from September 19 to October 17. </p>
<p>These three crises have defined Ardern’s first term in office. At least for now, a great many people are withholding judgement on her administration’s modest (at best) performance on reducing child poverty, replenishing the stock of public housing and shifting the dial on income and wealth inequality. </p>
<p>Instead, it is Ardern’s poise under pressure, calmness and ability not to rise to anything faintly resembling bait that has deeply resonated. As much as anything else, in times of crisis it has been her way with words that has registered: “They are us”, “The team of five million” and “Go hard and go early” are now part of the vernacular. Ardern’s language is one that New Zealanders intuitively understand.</p>
<p>Some of this may stem from Ardern’s understated background in what is colloquially described as the “real” New Zealand. It’s a misleading term, of course, because it implies there are parts of the country that are somehow not real. </p>
<p>But people know what it means: a modest upbringing in a <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-jacinda-ardern-heads-to-hometown-of-morrinsville-on-first-stop-of-campaign-2-0.html">small town</a>, a bit of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/new-zealand-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-quit-mormon-church-lgbt-rights-a8012676.html">religion</a>, some part-time work while at school. They hear these things in Ardern’s accent, and see them in her <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jacindaardern/videos/evening-everyone-thought-id-jump-online-and-answer-a-few-questions-as-we-all-pre/147109069954329/">green Facebook sweatshirt</a>. It makes her approachable — the nerdy kid you know would give you a hand with your homework if you needed it. </p>
<h2>From transformation to recovery</h2>
<p>This sense of authenticity goes at least some way to explaining why the prime minister and her party have polling figures to die for as they head into the final days of the election campaign. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding a second spell in lockdown, public confidence in the government’s handling of the COVID crisis <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300092282/election-2020-public-still-backing-government-and-jacinda-ardern-despite-second-outbreak-new-poll-shows">remains high</a>. As preferred prime minister, Ardern is streets ahead of her major rival, National’s Judith Collins. Despite some tightening in recent weeks, on <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427898/election-2020-labour-steady-national-down-in-latest-poll">present polling</a> Labour is still within range of governing alone, something that has never happened under the country’s MMP electoral system. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-as-the-ultimate-political-survivor-judith-collins-prepares-for-her-ultimate-test-144488">NZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test</a>
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<p>Labour’s polling is just one thing setting this year’s election apart from the last one. The emotional climate is also strikingly different. Labour’s campaign slogan — Let’s Keep Moving — is just this side of beige. There are no big-ticket policy items to match 2017’s proposed capital gains tax, <a href="https://www.labour.org.nz/kiwibuild-2017">KiwiBuild</a> or plans for light rail in Auckland. The rhetoric of transformation has been replaced by the language of recovery.</p>
<p>Yet transformation is not far off the mark, especially where Ardern herself is concerned. Three years ago she was the newly minted leader of her party and something of a political curiosity. Many doubted she had the ability to save her party from an electoral thrashing, let alone become prime minister. </p>
<p>Since then, she has <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/parenting/113431465/the-first-babys-first-year-memorable-moments-as-neve-ardern-gayford-turns-one">become a mother</a>, led the country through a series of crises, and made more hard calls and tough decisions than any New Zealand prime minister in recent memory. She has become a seasoned leader — and one of the <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/survey-jacinda-ardern-makes-voters-feel-more-hopeful-than-judith-collins.html">most popular</a> prime ministers in the nation’s history.</p>
<h2>Pragmatism over ideology</h2>
<p>Ardern’s personal trajectory mirrors — and to some degree has driven — a shift in the tone of New Zealand politics. Transformation is probably too strong a word for it, but something is happening and it is reflected in Ardern’s approach to leadership. </p>
<p>The prime minister appeals less to conviction than to disposition. Her approach resonates with people for whom politics is fundamentally relational rather than ideological. </p>
<p>Ardern is no ideologue. She gives people who don’t agree with her party’s policies permission to vote for her. It’s the kind of leadership that can change what counts as political common sense, and it appeals to a lot of people in times of stress and uncertainty.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/analysis-shows-how-the-greens-have-changed-the-language-of-economic-debate-in-new-zealand-144492">Analysis shows how the Greens have changed the language of economic debate in New Zealand</a>
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<p>Ardern’s pragmatism has led to accusations from the left that she has been insufficiently adventurous, that she has morphed from transformational candidate into <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-2nd-term-pm-for-crises-and-the-status-quo">conservative leader</a>. </p>
<p>Exhibits A and B for the prosecution are Labour’s small-t <a href="https://www.labour.org.nz/tax?">tax policy</a> and the response to the <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/05-08-2020/11000-new-zealanders-have-lost-their-jobs-and-10000-of-them-were-women/">gendered employment effects of COVID</a>: a disproportionate number of women have lost their jobs this year, but the bulk of the “shovel-ready” projects supported by the government as part of the COVID response are in industries in which women remain under-represented.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Ardern’s <em>modus operandi</em> is reassuring to those moderate, small-c conservatives who don’t do conviction politics but who do decide election outcomes in New Zealand. “Let’s keep moving” may not be all that uplifting, but it speaks to a pragmatism that lies deep in New Zealand’s sense of itself.</p>
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<h2>From Jacindamania to Aunty Jacinda</h2>
<p>There’s a reason why Ardern has framed it as the COVID election — it legitimates a focus on leadership. One of the two major party leaders has led her party for just three months. The other has led the country through a series of crucibles. The polls indicate people know which one is which. </p>
<p>A focus on leadership also allows Ardern to dominate field position and play to her strengths. To the intense frustration of the opposition, the prime minister’s image is ubiquitous and her skills as a communicator on regular display. </p>
<p>And New Zealanders love a good underdog, especially if it’s us. We look out at the world and see more populous, powerful nations struggling, and take considerable pride in having kept the virus largely at bay. The prime minister and her administration are being given credit for allowing us to be the little country that could.</p>
<p>For all that the election may appear to be a foregone conclusion, there remains a lot to play for — much of it hinging on whether Labour will be in a position to govern alone once votes have been counted. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-act-in-2020-highlights-tensions-between-the-partys-libertarian-and-populist-traditions-147170">The rise of ACT in 2020 highlights tensions between the party's libertarian and populist traditions</a>
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<p>A second term, this one in command of a parliamentary majority, could well give full expression to Ardern’s centrist political instincts. But if Labour is forced (or chooses) to govern with the Greens (and/or even the Māori Party, assuming it wins at least one of the seven Māori electorates), the likelihood of a shunt to the left increases. There would be pressure on Ardern to move back towards <a href="https://thestandard.org.nz/ardern-to-lead-iusy/">the socialism of her youth</a>. </p>
<p>Either way, it was inevitable that the “<a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96622994/ardern-v-english-in-christchurch-what-did-the-internet-think">stardust</a>” of Ardern’s meteoric rise would dissipate. But it may have been replaced by something more powerful. </p>
<p>Here in Aotearoa New Zealand the term “Aunty” is often used to denote a woman of influence, standing and authority. Adopted from Māori practice, it is a term of respect as much as one of kinship, and a means of expressing affection and affinity. On social media and out on the campaign trail, it’s “Aunty Jacinda” they’re talking about now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The politics of reassurance have made her one of the most popular prime ministers in NZ history. Can Jacinda Ardern turn that into meaningful change?Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444882020-10-12T18:48:35Z2020-10-12T18:48:35ZNZ election 2020: as the ultimate political survivor, Judith Collins prepares for her ultimate test<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362895/original/file-20201012-19-lvc5nh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=59%2C0%2C3544%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I first met Judith Collins in a media green room somewhere in Auckland midway through 2015. She is renowned for her ambition and dogged determination. But meeting her in person, I found her engaging, funny and very direct. </p>
<p>She is also from my own home province, Waikato, which has a long history of producing influential political women (Dorothy Jelicich, Marilyn Waring, Margaret Wilson, Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern, to name just a few). When she heard I taught a first-year politics class she volunteered immediately to come and give a lecture.</p>
<p>I took her up on that in October the same year, and she proved to be an entertaining guest. She shared with her audience of 300-plus her views on National as a party of pragmatism rather than ideology, and why any media attention is better than none. She was asked about her leadership ambitions — and was diplomatically coy.</p>
<p>By then, Collins had been exonerated by a <a href="http://www.dia.govt.nz/Government-Inquiry-Collins-Inquiry">government inquiry</a> into allegations, based on a leaked email from blogger Cameron Slater, that she had sought to undermine the director of the Serious Fraud Office.</p>
<p>She returned to cabinet, but it was a period of her political life she refers to in her <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/academic-professional/politics-government/Pull-No-Punches-Judith-Collins-9781988547510">recent memoir</a> as the “whole awful Worst of Times”. After six years as a high-profile minister of police, corrections, veterans affairs, justice, ACC and ethnic affairs, all the while in pursuit of an economic portfolio, Collins had been forced to resign from the front bench three weeks out from the 2014 election. </p>
<p>Until that point she had been touted as one of those most likely to succeed John Key. While it would take six more years before Collins won the leadership of the National Party, she never gave up. The subtitle of her book sums it up: Memoir of a Political Survivor.</p>
<p>Collins has put her name forward for the leadership several times since Key’s resignation, but could never win over enough caucus colleagues. This year was different. Todd Muller’s <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300056130/todd-muller-resigns-as-leader-of-the-national-party">unexpected resignation</a> as National leader just 53 days after his own <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300018336/todd-muller-elected-national-leader-simon-bridges-ends-twoyear-reign">coup against Simon Bridges</a> presented Collins with a wide open window of opportunity to finally take charge. </p>
<p>National may have been turned to her in desperation, but several pundits have since argued she should have been made leader much earlier. </p>
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<img alt="man speaking into microphones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362829/original/file-20201012-21-1c92goq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former National Party leader Don Brash supported and mentored Judith Collins.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span>
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<h2>Divisive but decisive</h2>
<p>Collins was first elected to parliament in 2002, the year of <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/research-papers/document/00PLLawRP02071/final-results-2002-general-election-and-trends-in-election">National’s nadir</a> — the party received just 21% of the vote, resulting in a net loss of 12 seats. Its support had fragmented — centre-right voters had shifted to ACT, New Zealand First and United Future. With Helen Clark’s Labour Party at a 41% high, Collins was one of only five new National MPs to enter the 47th parliament.</p>
<p>Two of those five new MPs were Don Brash and John Key, who both went on to become National Party leaders ahead of Collins. Unsurprisingly, both were influential in her career, albeit in opposite ways. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-act-in-2020-highlights-tensions-between-the-partys-libertarian-and-populist-traditions-147170">The rise of ACT in 2020 highlights tensions between the party's libertarian and populist traditions</a>
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<p>Collins recounts Brash’s political style and intellect with warmth and respect. Brash holds a PhD in economics from the Australian National University, has worked for the World Bank, and was New Zealand’s Reserve Bank governor for 14 years from 1988 — overlapping with the ascendancy of neoliberalism in New Zealand. </p>
<p>As leader of the National Party, it was clear Brash supported Collins’s aspirations, giving her portfolios that matched her expertise. He even invited her to a dinner with Milton Friedman, at which she learnt the political leader the famous economist most admired was Margaret Thatcher. </p>
<p>Collins praised Brash’s <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/105849114/how-don-brashs-orewa-speech-changed-the-way-governments-talk-about-the-treaty-of-waitangi">Orewa speech</a>, in which he had condemned the “dangerous drift towards racial separatism” and the “entrenched Treaty grievance industry”. Divisive in the eyes of many, Collins saw it as an example of the decisive leadership that ultimately led to Brash bringing National voters “home” in 2005. </p>
<p>National didn’t win, but <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/research-papers/document/00PLLawRP05061/final-results-2005-general-election">increased its presence</a> in parliament by 21 MPs (48 compared to Labour’s 50), with ACT, NZ First and United Future losing 18 seats between them.</p>
<h2>Surviving the Key years</h2>
<p>By contrast, the relationship between Collins and Key appears to have been less than rewarding. She argues Key had come into politics with a very clear agenda of being prime minister and nothing would get in his way. </p>
<p>One political reporter had tipped Collins as most likely to be Key’s deputy in advance of the 2008 election, but this did not happen. Nor was she promoted in Key’s first cabinet. </p>
<p>Describing the <em>annus horribilis</em> that was 2014 in her memoir, it is evident she felt let down by Key’s lack of support in quelling the <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/10013696/Judith-Collins-regrets-Oravida-interactions">Oravida</a> and “<a href="https://dirtypoliticsnz.com/about/">dirty politics</a>” controversies that year. </p>
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<p>More broadly, Key’s political strategy sat at odds with Collins’s political intuition. In 2008, he was intent on pulling the party more towards the centre, but Collins was sceptical of the argument that winning elections meant winning over median voters. </p>
<p>Citing the success of Thatcher, she believed shoring up the base and delivering to that base mattered more. For Collins, centrism is an excuse to do nothing and stand for nothing. </p>
<h2>Winning back the base</h2>
<p>It came as no surprise that Collins titled her memoir <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/books/academic-professional/politics-government/Pull-No-Punches-Judith-Collins-9781988547510">Pull No Punches</a>. Her style during the 2020 election campaign has reflected the pleasure she gets from flexing her parliamentary debating skills, which she says “requires quick wit […] an ability to think on one’s feet”. </p>
<p>She was rewarded with positive verdicts after the first two televised leaders’ debates, where her retorts and interjections were sometimes fierce, other times flippant. She clearly enjoys being in charge and unrestrained by broader collective responsibility (a point she also made about her time as a newspaper columnist during her sojourn on the backbench).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-election-looming-and-new-zealand-first-struggling-in-the-polls-where-have-those-populist-votes-gone-147166">With the election looming and New Zealand First struggling in the polls, where have those populist votes gone?</a>
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<p>Her formative political years reveal that decisiveness in a leader is a quality she values, even if it offends. She is probably further to the right than some in National might prefer, but in this she has not wavered over time. Her <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/media/3896/collins-judith-maiden-speech-29-august-2002.pdf">maiden speech</a> and her memoir demonstrate a disdain for what she calls the “lazy gene” and a welfare system that “funded women to have multiple children”. </p>
<p>In a sense, her political ethos is a mix of old-school pragmatic National conservatism and a dose of ideological neoliberalism. </p>
<p>She has never been shy about her desire to be a good electorate MP, to make a difference, to be in power and to climb to the top of the political ladder. The polls suggest Collins will succeed in winning back a chunk of the base that began to desert National with the onset of COVID-19. Attracting centre voters, however, may prove elusive. </p>
<p>That is unlikely to worry Collins. She is rebuilding National’s support and is determined her political career as leader will not end on October 18 2020. There are others, including touted future leader <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/117151149/national-chooses-christopher-luxon-as-botany-mp">Christopher Luxon</a>, who might disagree — ultimately the decision will not be hers. But it may be too soon to write her off. When Collins calls herself a political survivor, she means it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Curtin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For Judith Collins, centrism is an excuse to do nothing and stand for nothing. This election is the greatest challenge yet for her brand of politics.Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1471772020-10-08T01:36:39Z2020-10-08T01:36:39ZCOVID-19 is predicted to make child poverty worse. Should NZ’s next government make temporary safety nets permanent?<p>Despite the 2017 Labour-led government taking power with a <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/338701/labour-would-lift-100-000-children-out-of-poverty-by-2020-ardern">mandate</a> to fight Aotearoa New Zealand’s abysmally high child poverty rate, only incremental progress has been made. </p>
<p>The percentage of children living in poor households <a href="https://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/2020/wellbeing/child-poverty-report/trends-prior-to-covid-19.htm">dropped only slightly</a>, from 16.5% in June 2018 to 14.9% by June 2019. </p>
<p>That equates to approximately one in seven children (168,500) <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/latest-child-poverty-statistics-released">living in poverty</a>, according to one official measure used in New Zealand and internationally: households with incomes less than 50% of the median disposable household income before housing costs (BHC).</p>
<p>Before COVID-19, the government was <a href="https://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/2020/wellbeing/child-poverty-report/trends-prior-to-covid-19.htm">projected</a> to be in range of its 2021 BHC poverty target. It was also projected to meet its after-housing-costs (AHC) target (a measure of poverty based on household income with standard housing cost estimates factored in).</p>
<p>The government’s stated reduction targets are 5% of children in poverty based on the BHC measure, and 10% using the AHC measure, by 2028. The somewhat stagnant trend lines from 2017 to 2019, however, suggest there was still a need for the <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/media/4487/nzlp___gp_c_s_agreement.pdf">“transformational” policies</a> promised in 2017.</p>
<h2>The impact of COVID-19</h2>
<p>Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, and the government delivered some of those transformative policies in the form of both temporary and more permanent economic responses. </p>
<p>Families with children relying on income assistance received an income bump through temporary increases in the <a href="https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/winter-energy-payment.html">winter energy payment</a> and a longer term rise in <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/coronavirus-government-announces-permanent-boost-to-benefits-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html">benefit payments</a>. For those who lost jobs, the COVID-19 relief payment was <a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/6560">far more generous</a> than the normal Job Seeker benefit. </p>
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<p>These changes no doubt made a difference in the day-to-day lives of low-income families. Treasury estimated this short-term safety net, coupled with the full implementation of tax credits through the <a href="https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/about-work-and-income/news/2017/families-package.html">families package</a>, meant the government was still on track to meet its <a href="https://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/2020/wellbeing/child-poverty-report/possible-scenarios.htm">child poverty targets in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that stagnant pre-pandemic trend line is now predicted to <a href="https://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/2020/wellbeing/child-poverty-report/possible-scenarios.htm">move upwards</a> post-2021. The rise consists of children already in families who rely on an income support system that keeps them <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2005/S00431/new-research-current-benefits-leave-families-in-poverty.htm">below the poverty threshold</a>, and those newly in poverty due to their parents’ job or income loss. </p>
<p>Indeed, our <a href="https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/1865512/WP-20-03-covid-19-life-in-lockdown.pdf">research</a> shows families with children were more likely to experience an economic shock during lockdown.</p>
<h2>Unequal distribution of economic shock</h2>
<p>The data are based on our survey of people’s experiences during and after lockdown (March–April 2020). It highlights the disproportionate impact the economic crisis is having on families with children generally, and on low-income working families in particular. </p>
<p>For families with children where at least one adult was working prior to the lockdown, 51% experienced an economic shock due to someone in the household losing their job or some income. This compares with a rate 44% for the population overall. </p>
<p>As well as the financial hit, parents in households that experienced an economic shock reported more negative feelings during the day, such as depression, stress, and worry. Those feelings appeared to persist beyond lockdown. </p>
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Read more:
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<p>While all parents reported their sense of well-being improved moderately during the first return to alert level one (July 2020), that rebound wasn’t as high for those who had experienced an economic shock during lockdown. </p>
<p>There was nothing random about which families were most affected: 60% of working families living below the median household income (approximately NZ$50,000 per annum) experienced an economic shock compared with 45% of families in higher income brackets ($100,000 or more). </p>
<p>All working parents who reported an economic shock during lockdown, regardless of household income, reported declines in how they rated their relationship with their family. For parents from lower income households, however, this drop in family well-being was deeper than for higher income families. </p>
<p>In short, not only were parents in low-income households more likely to experience an economic shock, that shock had a bigger impact on their family well-being.</p>
<h2>Temporary policies should become permanent</h2>
<p>When we look at the child poverty projections from Treasury, it’s important to place them in the context of these findings. </p>
<p>Families who were working and just getting by are more likely to be suffering now and potentially into the future. That applies even more to those who were already struggling before the pandemic and who may find it harder to be part of the economic recovery. </p>
<p>Even the more optimistic child poverty projection, which shows the percentage of children in AHC poverty returning to early 2020 levels by 2024, may be misleading. </p>
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Read more:
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<p>Housing prices (and presumably rents) have continued <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/weu-25sep20.pdf">to rise</a> and are projected to <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/prefu20.pdf">outpace wage growth</a>. Indeed, the statistical assumption built into the AHC poverty measure is that families spend approximately 25% of their disposable income on rent — an unrealistically small proportion of financial resources for low income families.</p>
<p>If there is a silver lining, it is that the government’s short-term policy responses to the pandemic, such as the COVID-19 relief payment and wage subsidy programme, gave us a glimpse of what transformative policies could look like: a responsive safety net benefit maintaining families’ financial well-being at a liveable rate. </p>
<p>Without more permanent change, however, those rising child poverty projections will become our sad reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147177/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate C. Prickett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Emergency welfare relief during the pandemic shows ‘transformational’ child poverty action is politically and economically possible.Kate C. Prickett, Director of the Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study of Families and Children, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1471702020-10-06T23:04:40Z2020-10-06T23:04:40ZThe rise of ACT in 2020 highlights tensions between the party’s libertarian and populist traditions<p>New Zealand’s election is coming down to a simple contest between the Labour-Green bloc on the left and the National-ACT bloc on the right. Although the right is behind in the polls, if it were to gain the majority, ACT Party leader David Seymour could become deputy prime minister. </p>
<p>Either way, ACT is newly assertive. Although Seymour owes his Epsom seat to National’s grace and favour, he seems less inclined nowadays to be their political lapdog. He wants people to support ACT on its own terms.</p>
<p>Remarkably, the party has risen in opinion polls from below 1% to <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-labour-s-support-slips-can-t-govern-alone-in-new-poll.html">recently</a> as high as 8%. That would give ACT up to ten seats in parliament. Would Seymour also negotiate to bring one or more first-time MPs into cabinet alongside him?</p>
<p>In the past two elections, ACT held on with only one electorate seat, thanks to the National Party deal: Epsom’s National supporters agree to vote for the ACT candidate as their local representative but give their party vote to National.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11919181">arrangement</a> goes back to 2005. It paid a handsome dividend in 2008 when ACT won Epsom and achieved 3.65% in the party vote. This delivered the party a proportional share of five seats, despite being below the 5% party-vote threshold. </p>
<p>With ACT’s support on the right, and two other parties in the centre, John Key formed a National-led government that lasted three terms. Then ACT’s party vote fell below 1% in 2014 and 2017, with only the Epsom seat keeping it in parliament.</p>
<p>In 2020, however, after a term in opposition and no longer overshadowed by National, ACT is flourishing again. </p>
<h2>ACT rises at National’s expense</h2>
<p>Seymour has held his own, speaking up for freedom of speech and <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/04/david-seymour-why-i-oppose-the-gun-reforms.html">opposing</a> the banning of semi-automatic guns following the mosque shootings in March 2019. He introduced a member’s bill to permit euthanasia that is likely to come into force after a decisive <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/endoflifechoice/index.html">referendum</a> to be held alongside the general election.</p>
<p>However, National leader Judith Collins has bluntly <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12367428">stated</a> she sees ACT’s job as being to win Epsom and to help eliminate the populist New Zealand First Party, which on recent polling is likely to be ousted from parliament on October 17. </p>
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<p>ACT’s rise in the <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-for-the-first-time-exclusive-polling-shows-how-voting-habits-changed-since-last-election.html">polls</a> does come partly from those conservative erstwhile New Zealand First voters who are disillusioned with Winston Peters for forming a coalition government with Labour.</p>
<p>But Collins must be worried that some centre-right voters have given up on National winning and are exercising their freedom of choice by <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-secret-to-acts-popularity">defecting</a> to ACT — and she wants them back.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361756/original/file-20201005-22-s6zzej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Recent surveys show ACT picking up voters from National, Labour and the Māori Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screenshot/Newshub-Reid Research</span></span>
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<h2>What ACT supporters want</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/principles">Association of Consumers and Taxpayers</a> was founded in 1993 by former National cabinet minister Derek Quigley and Sir Roger Douglas, formerly minister of finance in David Lange’s Labour government and engineer of the economic deregulation that became known as “Rogernomics”.</p>
<p>The party stands for less government, more private enterprise and freedom of choice. It is therefore a child of neoliberalism — indeed, its only legitimate child. </p>
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Read more:
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<p>For example, Seymour’s referendum bill to allow assisted dying (euthanasia) was officially named the <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/document/BILL_74307/end-of-life-choice-bill">End of Life Choice Bill</a>, asserting its ideological origins with the word “choice”. He is <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/budget2020">proposing</a> much more radical cuts to public spending and taxation than his only possible coalition partner, National.</p>
<p>We gained an insight into how ACT supporters think from the online reader-initiated <a href="https://www.massey.ac.nz/massey/about-massey/news/article.cfm?mnarticle_uuid=76E7E758-24B0-44C8-88E1-4B276399ECE3">Stuff/Massey opinion poll</a> in July. Compared with the other parties in parliament, ACT supporters stand out as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>most likely to rate the New Zealand government’s overall response to COVID-19 as “unsuccessful”: 29.5% compared with 9.9% for the whole sample</p></li>
<li><p>most strongly in favour of abolishing the Māori electoral roll: 68.2% compared with 36.6% overall</p></li>
<li><p>more likely to prefer that the government take a “cautious and sceptical” approach on climate change: 72.5% compared with 36.4% overall</p></li>
<li><p>more in favour of the country getting back to “business as usual” rather than reforming the economic system itself during the post-pandemic rebuild: 75% compared with 31% overall.</p></li>
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<h2>Populist or purist?</h2>
<p>ACT supporters’ values are largely diametrically opposed to those upheld by Green supporters, as might be expected of a libertarian party that stands for individualism and deregulation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10007322">In the past</a>, though, the party has resorted to populist law-and-order and anti-welfare policies. In 2011 it deployed the “<a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10764866">one law for all</a>” slogan to attack policies addressing indigenous rights.</p>
<p>As ACT leader since 2014, Seymour has steered the party back towards free-market liberalism. But there is still an element of right-wing populist thinking among ACT’s supporters. </p>
<p>Sizeable minorities of them agree with conspiracy theories about COVID-19 (25%) and hope Donald Trump is re-elected in November (32%) — more than among National supporters who stood at about 20% on both points.</p>
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Read more:
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<p>If current polling holds true, Seymour will bring with him into parliament a caucus of freedom-loving individuals, none of whom has any previous representative experience. </p>
<p>Among them is a firearms enthusiast, a former police officer and a farmer. At number seven on the list is a <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/karen-chhour">self-employed mother of four</a> who the party claims “is better than ten ivory tower ‘experts’” when it comes to beating poverty.</p>
<p>So far, ACT’s best election result was in 2002 when it gained 7.14% of the party vote and nine seats in the 120-seat House of Representatives. If it repeats that in 2020, Seymour will go from being a lone voice for his party to the leader of a small but inexperienced caucus.</p>
<p>Managing that team of individualistic newbies may well be the first test of his libertarian instincts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climbing in the polls and less inclined to be National’s political lapdog, is the ACT Party more or less than the sum of its parts?Grant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444922020-10-06T01:23:20Z2020-10-06T01:23:20ZAnalysis shows how the Greens have changed the language of economic debate in New Zealand<p>When Health Minister Chris Hipkins recently quipped that the Green Party is “to some extent the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300076180/the-last-day-of-the-coalition-parliament-wraps-up-with-brutal-jokes-and-moments-of-gratitude">conscience of the Labour Party</a>” he was not simply referring to polls suggesting Labour may <a href="https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/what-we-do/1-news-poll/">need the Greens’ support</a> to form a government.</p>
<p>Hipkins was also suggesting Green policies help keep Labour honest on environmental and social issues. So, what difference has the Green Party really made to New Zealand’s political debate?</p>
<p>Drawing on a study of 57 million words spoken in parliament between 2003 and 2016, our <a href="https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/handle/10092/16249">analysis</a> shows the presence of a Green party has changed the political conversation on economics and environment.</p>
<p>In the recent <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-watch-the-full-jacinda-ardern-and-judith-collins-newshub-leaders-debate.html">Newshub leaders’ debate</a>, both Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins agreed that “growing the economy” was the best way to respond to the economic crisis driven by COVID-19. </p>
<p>Their responses varied only on traditional left-right lines. Ardern argued that raising incomes and investing in training would <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121505783/budget-2020-more-than-2-billion-to-get-kiwis-into-jobs-post-covid19">grow the economy</a>. Collins suggested economic growth should be advanced by increasing consumer spending through <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12365947">temporary tax cuts</a>.</p>
<p>By contrast, Green parties in New Zealand and elsewhere have long questioned the impact of relentless growth on the natural resources of a finite planet. Green thinking is informed by <a href="https://timjackson.org.uk/ecological-economics/pwg/">ecological economics</a>, which aims to achieve more sustainable forms of collective prosperity that meet social needs within the planet’s limits.</p>
<h2>The language of economic growth</h2>
<p>The impact of this radically different view can be observed in New Zealand parliamentary debates. When MPs from National and Labour used the word “economy” they commonly talked about it in the context of “growth” (“grow”/“growing”/“growth”). </p>
<p>On average, National MPs said “growth” once every four mentions of “economy”. Labour MPs said “growth” once every six mentions. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/arderns-government-and-climate-policy-despite-a-zero-carbon-law-is-new-zealand-merely-a-follower-rather-than-a-leader-146402">Ardern's government and climate policy: despite a zero-carbon law, is New Zealand merely a follower rather than a leader?</a>
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<p>Green MPs used “growth” once every 20 mentions of “economy”. When they did mention growth it was primarily to question the idea and to present alternative ideas about a sustainable economy. </p>
<p>Our analysis of the most recent parliamentary term (2017-2020) is ongoing.
However, while Labour has recently introduced “<a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-05/b19-wellbeing-budget.pdf">well-being</a>” into discussions of the economy, it is striking how the COVID crisis has reinvigorated the party’s traditional focus on growth economics.</p>
<p>The research also shows Green MPs mention “economy” primarily in relation to the environment, climate change, sustainability and people, rather than in relation to growth. Their distinct focus is on the connections between the economic system and the environment. </p>
<h2>From Labour to the Greens</h2>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97083457/why-cant-the-greens-be-more-green">criticism</a> that the Greens have not focused enough on “environmental” concerns, Green MPs used words related to environment, climate and conservation more frequently than Labour or National MPs over the 13-year study period. </p>
<p>For example, after controlling for the number of words spoken by each party’s MPs in parliament, Green MPs mentioned “climate change” four times more than National or Labour MPs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-election-2020-survey-shows-voters-are-divided-on-climate-policy-and-urgency-of-action-146569">NZ election 2020: survey shows voters are divided on climate policy and urgency of action</a>
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<p>This represents something of an historical shift. Atmospheric warming and CO₂ were <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/115821159/a-comprehensive-analysis-of-climate-change-debate-in-new-zealands-parliament">first talked</a> about in parliament by Labour MP Fraser Coleman in 1979. And Labour’s Geoffrey Palmer was the first prime minister to place climate change on parliament’s agenda.</p>
<p>But it has been the Greens who have maintained the momentum, using their speaking opportunities in the House to hold governments to account, including progressing legislation on the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0061/latest/LMS183736.html">Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019</a>.</p>
<h2>Making women’s voices heard</h2>
<p>The Green Party has also made a difference to who speaks. By <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/greens-will-ensure-gender-balance-cabinet">institutionalising gender balance</a> in their leadership and party organisation, and in the way they select their party list for each election, the Greens have consistently elected a higher proportion of female MPs than the other parties. </p>
<p>Historically, female Green MPs have contributed significantly to debates and policy action on inequality, child poverty, Treaty of Waitangi issues, gender equality and action on domestic violence.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-consumers-willing-to-pay-more-for-climate-friendly-products-146757">Climate explained: are consumers willing to pay more for climate-friendly products?</a>
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<p>This is significant. <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168018816228">Analysis</a> of political language globally, particularly on social media, has shown that politicians who identify as women and people of colour are subject to far higher rates of verbal abuse than their male counterparts. This is also the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300096675/twitter-toxicity-and-the-2020-election">experience of female MPs in New Zealand</a>, including women representing the Greens.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Quantity of life or quality of life?’ A 1972 election ad from the Values Party, political ancestor of the Greens.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A history of disruption</h2>
<p>Minority parties often struggle to maintain their identity in coalition arrangements with larger parties, but the Greens have retained a unique position in New Zealand. </p>
<p>In 1972 the <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/photograph/36610/the-values-party">Values Party</a> became the first “green” party to contest a national election anywhere in the world. Former Values activists, including the first Green Party co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald, were later successful in taking the Greens into parliament.</p>
<p>The language of green politics in New Zealand and the questioning of growth can be traced back to these origins. Language and words are significant as vehicles for articulating new ideas and provoking transformative action.</p>
<p>Linguistic analysis therefore shows how influential the Green Party has been in presenting alternatives to the idea that economic growth based on unlimited use of New Zealand’s natural resources is a sustainable option.</p>
<p>If Chris Hipkins is correct and the Greens are Labour’s conscience, it is because
they have effectively disrupted a historical near-consensus among the major parties that economic growth is the only driver of prosperity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the parliamentary record shows, the Greens have been the only party to consistently challenge orthodox ideas about economic growth and prosperity.Geoffrey Ford, Lecturer in Digital Humanities / Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science and International Relations, University of CanterburyBronwyn Hayward, Professor of Politics, University of CanterburyKevin Watson, Dean of Arts and Associate Professor of Linguistics, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1471662020-10-01T19:43:11Z2020-10-01T19:43:11ZWith the election looming and New Zealand First struggling in the polls, where have those populist votes gone?<p>Winston Peters has long been described as a populist, both in New Zealand and internationally. At different times during his career he has embraced the label. </p>
<p>As he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/im-going-nowhere-but-up-winston-peters-on-populism-politics-and-the-polls">said recently</a>, populism to him “means that you’re talking to the ordinary people and you’re placing their views far higher than the beltway and the paparazzi”.</p>
<p>But across much of the world, political analysts and commentators see the politics of populism as a <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/11/populism-jeopardizes-democracies-around-world/">menace</a>. Parties described as populist are often associated with the radical right, authoritarianism, xenophobia and a rejection of pluralism and diversity. </p>
<p>While Peters and New Zealand First have sometimes leaned in those directions, it’s been inconsistent and intermittent. The party has retained a significant number of Māori among its MPs, members and voters — including, of course, Peters himself.</p>
<p>At this point in the election campaign, however, New Zealand First’s problem is not populism but popularity. Polls show its support <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-drops-national-flounders-minor-parties-lift">significantly below</a> the 5% it needs to stay in parliament. Where have those voters gone?</p>
<h2>Populism of the left</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/populist-exception">recently launched book</a> on the 2017 New Zealand general election, drawing on data from the <a href="http://www.nzes.org/exec/show/index">New Zealand Election Study</a> (NZES), we argue that populism has another side: in its origins as a social movement, populism was of the left, not the right. </p>
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<img alt="head and shoulders of a man" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360964/original/file-20201001-24-n68a2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">James Carroll, NZ’s first Māori deputy (and twice acting) prime minister.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Library of New Zealand</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Those who originally called themselves populists sought to mobilise and unite the vast majority of people to challenge the excessive economic and political power of a narrow elite. This form of democratic populism emerged in New Zealand in a wave of reforms that, by the 1890s, had made the young country <a href="https://teara.govt.nz/en/voting-rights/page-1">one of the first</a> fully fledged representative democracies in the world.</p>
<p>Populism flowered under the Liberal governments of the early 20th century, personified by the prime minister <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/people/richard-seddon">Richard Seddon</a> (“King Dick”). His government championed the interests of the working class and small farmers by encouraging trade unionism and breaking up the big estates held by the colonial rich. </p>
<p>The Liberals were less successful at defending the interests of Māori. But New Zealand’s first Māori deputy prime minister and sometime acting prime minister was Liberal MP <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/people/james-carroll">James Carroll</a> (Ngāti Kahungunu) — not Winston Peters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-from-the-brexit-and-trump-playbooks-enters-the-new-zealand-election-campaign-but-its-a-risky-strategy-144855">Populism from the Brexit and Trump playbooks enters the New Zealand election campaign – but it's a risky strategy</a>
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<h2>Inclusion versus exclusion</h2>
<p>We define populism in two senses: first, as a set of democratic norms that takes seriously the idea of “the sovereignty of the people”; second, as rhetoric that uses populist language to attract support, but not necessarily for populist ends. </p>
<p>We also argue that it is necessary to distinguish between authoritarian or exclusionary populism, which seeks to divide the people by ethnicity or national origins, and inclusive populism, which seeks to build majorities on the foundations of what most members of a society have in common. </p>
<p>We found that in 2017 New Zealand populists were located predominantly on the left, with few exhibiting authoritarian views. For the minority of voters who expressed preferences for both populism and authoritarianism, their party of choice tended to be New Zealand First — the party that in 2017 <a href="https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/new-zealand-2017-general-election-official-results/">won just over 7%</a> of the vote and is now polling at 2% or less.</p>
<p>So, does the decline in support for New Zealand First in 2020 represent a shift in populist sentiment? </p>
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<h2>Where have authoritarian populists gone?</h2>
<p>New Zealand First’s brand of populism over the past three years has shifted between the exclusive and the inclusive. In the 2017 election campaign, the party’s rhetoric was true to form, focusing on reducing immigration and a desire to give more voice to the regions. </p>
<p>NZES data show the majority of New Zealand First voters wanted the party to form a coalition with National, but a sizeable minority also wanted to see political change. Indeed, New Zealand First’s campaign policies in 2017 were closely aligned with Labour’s, with a few exceptions: water quality and climate change mitigation being the two most clearly incompatible.</p>
<p>Our study shows that in 2017 New Zealand First appealed to voters who were older, Pākehā, male, on low incomes and lived outside the major cities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stardust-and-substance-new-zealands-election-becomes-a-third-referendum-on-jacinda-arderns-leadership-143262">Stardust and substance: New Zealand's election becomes a 'third referendum' on Jacinda Ardern's leadership</a>
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<p>In the end, New Zealand First <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/341942/nz-first-chooses-labour">entered into a government</a> with Labour, led by Jacinda Ardern, a relatively young woman whose rhetoric, feminism and policy orientation aligned with a more inclusive version of populism. This challenged some New Zealand First voters but won over others. </p>
<p>More recently, the issue of immigration has all but disappeared from the political agenda, removing New Zealand First’s key populist plank. Peters has been championing various versions of <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/06/winston-peters-digs-in-on-trans-tasman-bubble-no-reason-at-all-for-us-not-to-have-started-it.html">border reopening</a> over the past three months, suggesting he may be an internationalist at heart, at least when the economy is at stake.</p>
<p>It’s too early to be sure where New Zealand’s small percentage of authoritarian populists have gone. Are they the roughly 2% that remain committed to New Zealand First? Or has National Party leader Judith Collins’ aggressive labelling of Labour as <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/vote-2020/judith-collins-says-jacinda-ardern-is-wrong-and-disingenuous-on-farming/">anti-farmer</a> and anti-aspirational been gaining traction? </p>
<p>Or has the resolve with which Labour closed the borders struck a chord with New Zealand First’s authoritarians? Some <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-for-the-first-time-exclusive-polling-shows-how-voting-habits-changed-since-last-election.html">recent polling analysis</a> suggests much of the 2017 New Zealand First vote has indeed shifted to Labour.</p>
<h2>The rise of moderate populism</h2>
<p>Our analysis of the 2017 election reveals Ardern’s inclusionary campaign rhetoric was appealing. Voters found her likeable, competent and trustworthy. She also struck a chord with the onset of COVID-19. Her phrase “a team of 5 million” clearly evoked the populist ethos. </p>
<p>Trust in Ardern’s leadership, despite the centralised nature of our political institutions, <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300092282/election-2020-public-still-backing-government-and-jacinda-ardern-despite-second-outbreak-new-poll-shows">has remained high</a>. At the same time, satisfaction with our political process has not declined as it has in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/education-51281722">other democracies</a>, making a spike in authoritarian populism even less likely. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-polls-showing-labour-could-govern-alone-is-new-zealand-returning-to-the-days-of-elected-dictatorship-146918">With polls showing Labour could govern alone, is New Zealand returning to the days of 'elected dictatorship'?</a>
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<p>Those who fear and lament populism tend to see only the dark side of the phenomenon and often discount the idea that “the people” represent anything other than a threat. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">Liberal democratic critics of populism</a> therefore admire or hanker after constitutional checks to insulate governments from public opinion.</p>
<p>While we concede that protection of human rights requires some limits on majorities, our analysis of contemporary New Zealand politics indicates that the best antidote to authoritarian populism is a democratic and inclusive form of moderate populism.</p>
<p>Certainly Ardern’s version of moderate populism has proved popular. With immigration not a focus this election, New Zealand First’s appeal to authoritarian populist voters appears to have all but disappeared. To know where these voters go next we will need to wait for the results of the <a href="http://www.nzes.org/exec/show/2020">2020 New Zealand Election Study</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>As part of the New Zealand Election Study, Jack Vowles receives funding from Victoria University of Wellington's research trust and the New Zealand Electoral Commission. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The New Zealand Election Study received some funding for the New Zealand Electoral Commission. Jennifer Curtin has provided pro bono research time to the Gender Justice Collective (non-profit) during the 2020 election campaign.</span></em></p>His populist style made Winston Peters the kingmaker in New Zealand politics, but a new kind of populism may dethrone him in 2020.Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1444862020-09-30T18:29:03Z2020-09-30T18:29:03ZClick, like, share, vote: who’s spending and who’s winning on social media ahead of New Zealand’s election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360653/original/file-20200930-22-vz8nd6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C3081%2C2068&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If social media engagement rates determined which parties form the next government, New Zealand’s parliament would soon look a lot different.</p>
<p>With its daily social media interactions commanding an average 7.7% engagement rate, Advance NZ (incorporating the NZ Public Party) would be streets ahead of Labour and National.</p>
<p>Opposing the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2020/0012/latest/LMS344134.html">COVID-19 Public Health Response Act 2020</a>, 5G and the United Nations, and promoting anti-lockdown protests, might only get them to <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/426670/colmar-brunton-poll-labour-at-48-percent-national-at-31-percent">1% in opinion polls</a> — but it is a winning formula online.</p>
<p>Advance NZ’s livestreamed anti-lockdown march in August netted 255,600 views — 86% of them generated by only 4,793 people who shared the posted video. </p>
<p>That’s a higher engagement rate than many posts by the acknowledged Facebook champion of New Zealand politics, the prime minister and Labour leader, Jacinda Ardern, whose own posts routinely attract between 120,000 and 500,000 views.</p>
<h2>Politics in the attention economy</h2>
<p>Across the political spectrum, parties have seen the greatest boost in visibility when they post about hot-button issues: taxation, lockdowns, economic stress, mask wearing — even tobacco prices.</p>
<p>A photo meme of New Zealand First leader Winston Peters <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NZFirst/photos/a.654807404574852/3228373067218260/?type=3">pledging to remove tobacco excise tax</a> was among the highest-performing posts, gaining 24 times the party’s usual number of comments, likes, shares and views. </p>
<p>The platform algorithms reward posts that outperform a party page’s usual engagement rates. In a kind of snowball effect, high-performing posts are pushed higher into news feeds and deeper into the minds of voters.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-facebook-prime-minister-how-jacinda-ardern-became-new-zealands-most-successful-political-influencer-144485">The Facebook prime minister: how Jacinda Ardern became New Zealand's most successful political influencer</a>
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<p>Social media algorithms are <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/6298">proprietary</a> and tweaked often. But their purpose is clear — to read the user’s <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asi.21662?casa_token=Aowa7-3tFgMAAAAA:ND30I8N71slPyflK1LUFtHfc4bqm4HSDhL_QHTfbfEgeQJva6TTav80KFDyA5OQhoHzy6Bg_PIEuZg">searches and interactions</a> in order to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/2702123.2702274?casa_token=_tZ5DGmkXXsAAAAA:38oTyR0RO9gvQBS9Bs_Mb9hCMg13wCEsxQZNW52mUHfnX8ugaKDS7yQ8ILSLajlS7_uX-erUtRw">serve them</a> more related content and keep them continually engaged.</p>
<p>With this persuasive power <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/09/movies/the-social-dilemma-review.html">built into the technology</a> and our attention now a commodity to be bought and sold, no politician can ignore social media nowadays.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360695/original/file-20200930-24-1jevrx2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Organic vs paid media</h2>
<p>In New Zealand from July to September 25, there were <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/report">9,537 paid advertisements</a> on Facebook and Instagram related to social issues, elections and politics, costing a total of $NZ 1,054,713. </p>
<p>Parties are particularly <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/10/when-people-pay-attention-to-video-ads-and-why">paying for attention</a> when their content has limited organic reach. </p>
<p>Labour and Jacinda Ardern have the greatest organic reach, with 1.6 million Facebook fans combined (the lion’s share being Ardern’s). The party <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=337477311451">spent only $41,396</a> on posts in one 30-day period ending in September. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-code-to-protect-our-online-privacy-and-wipe-out-dark-patterns-in-digital-design-145622">We need a code to protect our online privacy and wipe out 'dark patterns' in digital design</a>
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<p>By contrast, National and its leader Judith Collins lack organic reach. With only 180,000 fans across their Facebook pages, they need to spend to keep up — <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=183355881680015">$143,825</a> in the same 30-day period. </p>
<p>Of that, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=559020010842423">$35,000</a> was devoted to a massive push for people seeing Collins’ social media advertisements to “like my page to stay up to date”. Ultimately, the strategy is about boosting party votes and building greater organic reach in future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360961/original/file-20200930-14-gl5vms.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Reach and reinforcement</h2>
<p>But even smaller parties have outspent Labour. The Greens paid <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=10779081371">$82,000</a> for social advertising in the same period.</p>
<p>However, Greens Auckland Central candidate Chloe Swarbrick (who has a bigger social following than party co-leaders James Shaw or Marama Davidson) went organically viral with a simple photo of herself wearing a vintage party jumper. </p>
<p>Replica garments were rushed into production and <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/fashion/122578671/the-story-behind-green-mp-chle-swarbricks-iconic-sweatshirt">sold out</a> overnight on the party’s fundraising site. </p>
<p>So, social media do work, as ACT and its leader, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=154331724631584">David Seymour</a>, would no doubt also attest. Having <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=92043134118">spent $78,000</a> to promote their “Change your future” bus tour and “Holding the other parties accountable” message, the party is <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12367010">climbing in the polls</a>. </p>
<p>And despite its organic strength, Advance NZ has spent nearly <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=NZ&view_all_page_id=106125474475801">$7,000</a> on social media. Half of that was dedicated to boosting numbers at the anti-lockdown protests, but such spending is also clearly designed to reach voters who aren’t already fans or friends of fans.</p>
<h2>Cultivating reality</h2>
<p>The benign view is that social channels allow parties to stay in the conversations and thoughts of voters. Voters in return become more connected to politicians and informed on the issues they care about. </p>
<p>But because of the way those algorithms work, voters may rarely <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15377857.2014.959690?casa_token=IDCfSWNX8xMAAAAA:InoFgKtBEGlYVZsqb8IkpmnK5CN37fgDqKdOmxtvYTAmz1Cuntr2JIEV1xh4blbcq5vuNtKgstU">see the other side</a> of policies and issues. Instead, those first clicks, views and interactions lead down the <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90491131/the-new-york-times-new-podcast-rabbit-hole-sends-you-down-one-to-see-what-the-internet-does-to-us">rabbit hole</a> and create filter bubbles. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-election-campaign-underway-can-the-law-protect-voters-from-fake-news-and-conspiracy-theories-146095">With the election campaign underway, can the law protect voters from fake news and conspiracy theories?</a>
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<p>Filter bubbles have been blamed for slowly polarising audiences, causing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/facebook-google-mark-zuckerberg-behavior-modification-empires-2018-4?r=US&IR=T">gradual changes</a> in voter behaviour and perception. This is a vastly different political sphere than existed even five years ago.</p>
<p>For example, anyone following only certain politicians might not have known that several social posts misrepresenting Ardern’s comments about farming in the first TV leaders’ debate had been subsequently <a href="https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/08/election-2020-the-whole-truth/#/1193324691/national-mps-are-twisting-jacinda-ardern-s-words-on-social-media">fact-checked and debunked</a>.</p>
<p>Over time, the filter bubble <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11747-019-00695-1">makes room</a> for fake news to churn inside these echo chambers where users often <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/23/5976.short">fail to fact-check content</a>. Misinformation thrives on <a href="https://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2017/08/gut-truth">repetition and familiarity</a>.</p>
<p>But is there evidence that digital messaging influences voting behaviour? Yes, according to at least <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11421">one major US study</a>, especially when shared with friends and family. Such forms of social transmission seem more effective than politicians’ own use of social media. </p>
<p>If attitudes cultivated online translate into real-world voting behaviour, then Advance NZ may be merely a forerunner of what’s to come in New Zealand.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this story was updated to correct an error in the graph displaying party leaders’ social media statistics. The original version named Gareth Morgan as TOP leader. Geoff Simmons is the current leader.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Organic appeal and reach still trump advertising spending when it comes to digital engagement by parties and individual politicians.Sommer Kapitan, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, Auckland University of TechnologyPatrick van Esch, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, AUT Business School, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1465692020-09-30T18:26:41Z2020-09-30T18:26:41ZNZ election 2020: survey shows voters are divided on climate policy and urgency of action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360642/original/file-20200929-22-48ixm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C80%2C4493%2C2889&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/riekephotos</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealanders are polarised on climate change policy, according to a recent <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/122106838/why-the-stuffmassey-election-survey-matters">Stuff/Massey University survey</a> of 55,000 readers. This puts the two major political parties in a difficult position as they seek options that are credible yet appealing to voters. </p>
<p>Just 30% of Labour voters and 22% of National voters think the country is “more or less on the right path” on climate action. </p>
<iframe title="On climate change, which of the following messages would you send to the government?" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-VxkTD" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VxkTD/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="500" caption="test"></iframe>
<p>The majority of voters on one side of the political spectrum wants to see “urgent action and radical change”, while at the other end most recommend caution and scepticism. </p>
<p>The survey helps explain the deep <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/oram-if-you-want-a-future-vote-climate">distrust</a> climate advocates have for the National Party, and their <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/campaigning-hits-credibility-gap-on-climate">demands</a> for bolder choices from Labour. </p>
<h2>Where the parties stand</h2>
<p>Labour is running heavily on its record, including the passing of the <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-act">Zero Carbon Act</a> and the introduction of a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nz-puts-hard-cap-on-emissions-for-first-time-to-strengthen-its-trading-scheme-27417/">falling cap</a> on emissions permits issued under the <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/ets">Emissions Trading Scheme</a>. </p>
<p>Although the government’s COVID-19 recovery spending has been criticised for not being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/new-zealand-budget-1bn-for-nature-jobs-but-dismay-at-lack-of-climate-action">green enough</a>, Labour seems aligned with a “just transition” approach championed by the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/---emp_ent/documents/publication/wcms_432859.pdf">International Labour Organisation</a>. </p>
<p>Labour’s climate headline policy is for <a href="https://www.labour.org.nz/release-renewable-electricity-generation-2030">100% renewable electricity</a> by 2030, five years earlier than planned, and to spend NZ$100 million <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/100-renewable-electricity-grid-explored-pumped-storage-%E2%80%98battery%E2%80%99">developing a pumped hydro scheme</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-wants-to-build-a-100-renewable-electricity-grid-but-massive-infrastructure-is-not-the-best-option-143592">New Zealand wants to build a 100% renewable electricity grid, but massive infrastructure is not the best option</a>
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<p>Labour is also sticking with a plan for a nationwide <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/nzlabour/pages/18628/attachments/original/1599690527/Clean_Energy_-_FAQ.pdf">fuel efficiency standard</a>, which would begin to turn around New Zealand’s growing <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12221417">transport emissions</a>. </p>
<iframe title="Emissions from transport" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-1vDp3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1vDp3/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The party has dropped the electric car rebate, which the National Party has <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12264203">attacked</a> on the grounds it could increase the price of popular vehicles. A similar <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/ev-scare-puts-morrison-at-odds-with-his-party-and-treasurer/news-story/efacec437ba0fd97b08aa60e809e144d">approach</a> worked for the Australian Liberal Party in 2019.</p>
<p>The Green Party would go further. While also promising 100% renewable electricity by 2030, the party promotes home solar and insulation and community clean energy. More boldly, it would <a href="https://www.greens.org.nz/energy_policy">immediately</a> ban new fossil-fuelled industrial boilers and end industrial coal use by 2030 and gas by 2035. It would <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122922549/election-2020-greens-promise-free-public-transport-ban-on-petrol-vehicle-imports-cycle-super-highway-fund">prioritise</a> free public transport for under-18s, ban petrol car imports from 2030 and create a NZ$1.5 billion cycleway fund.</p>
<p>The National Party has released its <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300104885/national-wants-electric-cars-in-bus-lanes-as-part-of-push-to-electrify-fleets">electric vehicle policy</a>, with a target of 80,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2023 (up from 16,000 now). It would exempt these vehicles from fringe benefit tax until 2025 and from road user charges until at least 2023 to encourage uptake by commercial fleets. </p>
<p>It would also target a third of government vehicles to be electric by 2023 and allow electric vehicles to use bus and carpool lanes. The last point has been criticised for <a href="https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2017/04/06/at-rejects-allowing-electric-vehicles-in-bus-lanes/">impeding</a> the flow of buses.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1304233527630651392"}"></div></p>
<p>On the other hand, National’s climate spokesperson, Scott Simpson, has called the party a “broad church” and <a href="https://www.podcasts.nz/king-of-the-roads-meet-scott-simpson-nationals-spokesperson-on-climate-change/">pledged</a> to amend the Zero Carbon Act to emphasise that food production should not be sacrificed for climate goals.</p>
<p>The ACT Party, which on current polling would <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-and-greens-in-driving-seat-but-act-still-strong">increase from one to ten MPs</a>, was the only party to oppose the Zero Carbon Act. It now <a href="https://www.act.org.nz/environment">proposes</a> repealing the act and tying the price of carbon to that of New Zealand’s five top trading partners.</p>
<h2>What a difference three years make</h2>
<p>At the time of New Zealand’s last general election in September 2017, Extinction Rebellion and the School Strike 4 Climate movements did not yet exist. Greta Thunberg was unknown to the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Climate protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/360645/original/file-20200929-16-3bq0ez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Climate protesters demonstrating in Wellington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/ Natalia Ramirez Roman</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Now climate activism has increased <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/27/climate-crisis-6-million-people-join-latest-wave-of-worldwide-protests">globally</a>. Climate-change <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/">impacts</a>, including temperature records of 38°C in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-wmo-russia-idUSKBN2412SG">northern Siberia</a> to 54°C in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53788018">Death Valley</a>, have attracted widespread attention. Orange skies in San Francisco are a reminder of apocalyptic Australian bushfires less than a year ago. </p>
<p>There are also signs of bolder climate action that may fulfil the declarations of the <a href="https://cop23.unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. In the European Union, negotiations are under way to cut 2030 emissions to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/eu-lawmakers-up-the-ante-vote-for-60-climate-target-for-2030/">40-45%</a> of 1990 levels. This target would require halving emissions in the next decade. </p>
<p>In the US, the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden, has a <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/biden-unveils-2-trillion-plan-to-decarbonise-us-power-by-2035/2-1-843114">US$2 trillion proposal</a> for rapid decarbonisation. Ireland’s new government has agreed to emission cuts of <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/programme-for-government-binding-targets-under-green-new-deal-1.4279576">7% per year</a>. China has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/22/china-pledges-to-reach-carbon-neutrality-before-2060">pledged</a> to be carbon-neutral before 2060. </p>
<p>In New Zealand, both <a href="https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/environment/Pages/auckland-climate-action-plan.aspx">Auckland</a> and <a href="https://wellington.govt.nz/services/environment-and-waste/environment/climate-change/zero-carbon-capital">Wellington</a> councils have released highly ambitious climate plans that will require sweeping changes to housing and transport.</p>
<p>But this year’s New Zealand general election won’t be about climate change. The COVID-19 crisis and the high level of uncertainty about economic recovery and employment have made issues of leadership, trust and party branding more important than ever. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-covid-19-budget-delivers-on-one-crisis-but-largely-leaves-climate-change-for-another-day-138524">New Zealand's COVID-19 budget delivers on one crisis, but largely leaves climate change for another day</a>
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<p>In this context, Labour’s nod to the <a href="https://businessdesk-co-nz.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/businessdesk.co.nz/amp/article/keith-turner-time-for-new-nation-building-hydro-project">Lake Onslow pumped hydro project</a> could be a winner. Its storage potential is <a href="https://newzealand.water.blog/2019/05/30/the-journey-begins/">enormous</a> – more than all of New Zealand’s present hydro lakes combined and 15 times the size of Australia’s <a href="https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowy-20/about/">Snowy 2.0</a> project. </p>
<p>It could decarbonise not just all electricity generation, but a lot of industrial process heat and transport as well. It would address the seasonal imbalance between lake inflows and electricity demand, and protect against dry years. But it’s also a traditional civil engineering project far in the future and doesn’t threaten anybody’s lifestyle today. </p>
<p>In New Zealand, as elsewhere, climate politics means finding support for actions now whose benefits extend far into the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand voters are divided on climate policy along party lines, with the majority on one side of the political spectrum calling for urgent action while at the other end most recommend caution.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1441122020-09-30T02:15:29Z2020-09-30T02:15:29ZAssisted dying referendum: people at the end of their lives say it offers a ‘good death’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360460/original/file-20200929-22-1es57sv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C137%2C5708%2C3414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Photographee eu</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to the latest <a href="https://static.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/17-21-September-2020_1-NEWS-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-.pdf">1 News Colmar Brunton poll</a>, almost two-thirds of New Zealanders are planning to vote yes in the upcoming <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/endoflifechoice/index.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMInoeBsOGK7AIVCFRgCh3k6wTUEAAYASAAEgIazvD_BwE">referendum on assisted dying</a>. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1177083X.2018.1532915">research</a> shows this number aligns with the past 20 years of polling, which suggests stable support for the idea. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.referendums.govt.nz/endoflifechoice/index.html">referendum</a>, to be held at the general election on October 17, will decide whether the <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2019/0067/latest/DLM7285905.html">End of Life Choice Act 2019</a> comes into force.</p>
<p>The act authorises a doctor to administer or prescribe a lethal dose of medication to competent adults suffering unbearably from a terminal illness that would likely end their life within six months — as long as they request it directly and voluntarily. </p>
<p>A person will not be eligible if their only reason is that they have a mental illness or a disability of any kind, or are of advanced age. Overall, the Act has more than 45 safeguards that must be met. </p>
<p>Understandably, discussions about assisted dying produce strong reactions. Evidence-based information is essential and we must sort <a href="https://theconversation.com/separating-fact-from-fiction-about-euthanasia-in-belgium-58203/">fact from fiction</a>, particularly about any hypothetical social consequences of the legalisation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-year-of-voluntary-assisted-dying-in-victoria-400-have-registered-despite-obstacles-141054">One year of voluntary assisted dying in Victoria: 400 have registered, despite obstacles</a>
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<p>Having the option of assisted dying available <em>if</em> they needed it appealed to the terminally ill participants in my <a href="https://ourarchive.otago.ac.nz/handle/10523/10395">doctoral research</a>. Assisted dying guaranteed what they understood as a good death, including being able to <a href="http://apm.amegroups.com/article/view/45543">choose the timing and way they died</a>. </p>
<p>Participants also felt dying would be difficult for their families if it took too long and they themselves would know best the <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/08/1158585/when-is-the-right-time-to-die">right time for them to die</a>. They felt medicine and religion shouldn’t get to decide what’s right for society as they didn’t know <a href="http://apm.amegroups.com/article/view/45543">what it was like</a> to approach the end of life. They saw the tight controls on assisted dying as a good thing and wanted it to be safe for everyone. </p>
<h2>Coercion or consent?</h2>
<p>The latest and largest <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2532018">review of international research</a> on assisted dying, carried out by highly respected researchers in this field (including those who oppose it), concluded: “Existing data do not indicate widespread abuse of these practices.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2652799/">Evidence</a> from the Netherlands and the US state of Oregon, where assisted dying is legal, shows concerns it would disproportionately affect people from vulnerable groups are unfounded. Instead, those who access assisted dying appear to be economically and socially privileged. </p>
<p>Of course, the health system is by no means perfect. Its problems include inequitable access, systemic racism and ableism. But denying dying people the right to choose is not going to change those disparities. </p>
<p>We can let terminally ill people make choices about how and when they die as well as advocate for a system that doesn’t force those choices on others.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-places-where-its-legal-how-many-people-are-ending-their-lives-using-euthanasia-73755">In places where it's legal, how many people are ending their lives using euthanasia?</a>
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<p>Providing robust safeguards in legislation deals with the concerns about vulnerable groups. The New Zealand law requires two (or even three) independent doctors to confirm the request is genuinely voluntary and informed. They also have to speak to the person over a number of sessions to ensure the patient’s decision is unwavering. If any pressure is suspected at any stage, the doctor must stop the process immediately and report it to the Registrar Assisted Dying.</p>
<p>Although there is scepticism about whether everybody would comply with safeguards, there is <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/23-09-2020/the-end-of-life-choice-bill-is-safer-than-many-of-our-current-critical-care-laws/">equally a concern</a> about decisions to withdraw life-sustaining interventions or administer pain relief that may hasten death. These are just as susceptible to abuse as assisted dying, but are already lawful. Dying people prefer a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32648455/">quick death</a> to a long, drawn-out or violent death. </p>
<p>In fact, 5.6% of New Zealand’s general practitioners (and nurses under their instruction) who responded to an international standardised survey admit they are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26367357/">intentionally hastening death</a> regardless of the legality, and not always with patients’ consent. These findings should be interpreted alongside <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26367357/">research</a> that suggests one-third of New Zealand doctors may not honestly answer questions about assisted dying. </p>
<p>It is safer to bring the practice of hastening death out into the open so doctors who are willing to administer an assisted death can be regulated and monitored and patients can give informed consent.</p>
<h2>Contagion or conversation?</h2>
<p>Some have suggested a contagion effect if assisted dying is legalised. As we have slowly learned with suicide, talking about suicide is more likely to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(18)30041-5/fulltext">prevent it</a>. An in-depth study in the Netherlands similarly concluded that talking about euthanasia <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01459740701283165?journalCode=gmea20">prevents euthanasia</a> most of the time. </p>
<p>Legalised assisted dying will open up conversations about what people want at the end of life as it has done in <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/193817">other jurisdictions</a>.</p>
<p>In terms of New Zealand evidence, the world-renowned <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1080/j.1440-1614.2004.01334.x?journalCode=anpa">longitudinal study</a> of 987 25-year-olds found they distinguish between suicide and euthanasia. If 25-year-olds can see the difference, surely others can too? </p>
<p>Those bereaved by assisted dying witness less suffering and the impact on them is <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31657640/">similar or no worse</a> than other deaths.</p>
<p>If people vote for this law to come into force, there will be fewer suicides because terminally ill New Zealanders are sadly <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28807701/">taking their own lives</a>. </p>
<p>If assisted dying is legalised, dying people will <a href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/Geriatrics/GeneralGeriatrics/49878">experience less suffering</a> at the end of life; there won’t be more deaths because the only people eligible are already dying.</p>
<p>As a dying person said to me in an interview for my research:</p>
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<p>I think that there’s a profound principle in there somewhere, that people ought to have some, some way of saying this is long enough. </p>
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<p>The views of people approaching the end of life are startlingly absent from the debate about legalisation. This is a rare opportunity to have input into passing a <a href="http://yesforcompassion.org.nz/">compassionate</a> piece of law on their behalf.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Young is affiliated with YesForCompassion.org.nz, which shares dying people’s reasons for wanting choice and aims to educate the public by providing trustworthy, evidence-based information on the End of Life Choice Act 2019 in the lead up to the referendum. Jessica received funding from the University of Otago and the HOPE Selwyn Foundation, neither of whom
had any influence over any aspects of the research.</span></em></p>Terminally ill research participants wanted to have the option of assisted dying if they needed it, and felt they knew best when the time was right for them to die.Jessica Young, PhD Candidate in Medical Sociology, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.