Despite reports Labor might struggle in Braddon and Longman, the byelections delivered a comfortable win in Braddon and a strong one in Longman.
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Articles on Polls
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With the contest for the five ‘Super Saturday’ byelections heating up, Longman hangs in the balance, while Rebekha Sharkie has a solid lead in Mayo.
ReachTEL polls show Labor is behind in key byelections, but Essential has better news for Bill Shorten.
We are often presented with surveys that claim to show how we all think on a certain subject. But how many people do you need to ask for that finding to have have any convincing meaning?
Labor still holds a narrow two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, while polling takes a skewed turn.
Polls also have good news for the government, with the two-party preferred gap narrowing and the budget well-received.
Labor continues to hold a 51-49% two-party lead in the wake of last week’s budget.
Labor holds its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, but recent momentum has been with the incumbent government.
Despite the government’s 30th Newspoll loss under Malcolm Turnbull, this week’s polls have been a mixed bag for both sides.
The Coalition braces for the next Newspoll, while a redistribution gives Labor reason to smile, and the Batman byelection results are finalised.
When it comes to political scandals, context is king.
The polls seem to be swinging back in favour of the Andrews Labor government in Victoria, while in New South Wales it’s neck-and-neck.
The Liberals went from a losing position in Tasmanian polls months ago to a comfortable victory on election day.
The Liberals should win a majority at Saturday’s Tasmanian state election.
The reallocation is short and long Senate terms for Tasmania distorts the 2016 election result.
While this Newspoll is Malcolm Turnbull’s 26th consecutive loss (four short of Tony Abbott’s streak), it is the Coalition’s best position since April 2017.
The polls are leaning towards the Liberals holding power in Tasmania, but the unpopularity of the federal Coalition government could help Labor get over the line.
The strong US economy has improved Donald Trump’s ratings in the last month.
In both Australian and overseas elections held in 2017, the left generally performed better than expected.
Historically, wishful thinking has blunted pushback.
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Top contributors
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
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Senior Project Manager, Murdoch University
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
