tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/risk-assessment-6603/articlesRisk assessment – The Conversation2023-11-24T00:20:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183412023-11-24T00:20:59Z2023-11-24T00:20:59ZTaylor Swift’s Brazil concert was hammered by extreme heat. How to protect crowds at the next sweltering gig<p>Electrifying music concerts and other mass events are increasingly under threat from severe weather events, such as extreme heat.</p>
<p>The tragic <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-22/heatwave-humidity-warnings-follow-brazil-taylor-swift-fan-death/103132476">incident</a> at a Taylor Swift concert in Brazil recently, which resulted in the death of one fan, is a stark reminder of what can happen.</p>
<p>The concert took place in a stadium during a heatwave. Fans lined up for hours outside the Rio de Janeiro venue, with temperatures reportedly over 40°C. With the high humidity, this would have felt like almost 60°C, according to a measure known as the “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex#:%7E:text=The%20heat%20index%2C%20also%20known,for%20the%20human%20body%27s%20comfort.">heat index</a>”.</p>
<p>As well as the fatality, fans <a href="https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/music/tours/taylor-swift-concert-goers-struck-with-seconddegree-burns/news-story/e1a597d52f642c46c1a8f45b5c816fdb">reported</a> burns after touching hot metal floors and railings.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-landing-more-australians-in-hospital-and-heat-is-the-biggest-culprit-216440">Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit</a>
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<h2>There have been other similar events</h2>
<p>What happened at the Swift concert is the consequence of insufficient preparation for extreme weather conditions during a large-scale event. However, this is not an isolated case. There is a <a href="https://www.billboard.com/lists/concerts-affected-climate-change-2023-full-list/july-4/">long list</a> of mass gatherings and events affected by extreme weather in 2023. </p>
<p>In August, a <a href="https://variety.com/2023/music/news/beyonce-dc-metro-trains-weather-delays-renaissance-1235689650/">Beyoncé concert</a> in a Washington DC stadium took place during severe weather conditions. This time it was heavy rain and lightning. Attendees were ordered to shelter in place.</p>
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<p>Lightning posed a direct threat to their safety. Those inside the stadium were directed to shelter under covered areas and ramps. Afterwards, several fans were reportedly treated for <a href="https://wjla.com/news/local/fedex-field-shelter-in-place-beyonce-concert-renaissance-tour-weather-lightening-rain-cover-thunderstorms-sunday-performance#:%7E:text=After%20a%20shelter,Nov%202023%2011%3A50%3A08%20GMT">heat exhaustion</a>. </p>
<p>The directive to shelter in place could have led to overcrowding in covered areas, potentially increasing the risk of incidents, such as a crowd crush.</p>
<p>Another US example was <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/17-hospitalized-2-go-into-cardiac-arrest-at-ed-sheeran-concert-amid-extreme-heat/4497016/#:%7E:text=,working%20during%20the%20Ed">Ed Sheeran’s concert</a> at a Pittsburgh stadium during a July heatwave. </p>
<p>Some 17 people were hospitalised. Health emergencies included heat exhaustion and two cardiac arrests (when the heart stops beating).</p>
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<h2>We must prepare</h2>
<p>Climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and intense. So risk assessments should include detailed weather monitoring and structural assessments for outdoor set-ups to ensure shade structures, for instance, can cope with crowds.</p>
<p>Contingency plans for a rapid response are also needed. These need to include plans to supply water or protective equipment (such as plastic ponchos) and timely safety directions and information. </p>
<p>Such planning should encompass not just the likelihood of extreme weather but also its potential impact on infrastructure, crowd control and emergency medical responses.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-burning-man-to-woodstock-to-fyre-festival-what-turns-a-festival-into-a-disaster-212859">From Burning Man to Woodstock to Fyre Festival: what turns a festival into a disaster?</a>
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<h2>Artists play a role too</h2>
<p>While the primary onus of safety lies with event organisers and venues, artists can also play a significant role in public safety during extreme weather. So we need to keep them informed about identified potential risks and planned countermeasures.</p>
<p>For instance, artists can influence crowd behaviour positively and prevent catastrophic outcomes, such as a crowd crush. They can appeal for calm or can announce any planned evacuation procedures.</p>
<p>In the most recent incident, Swift <a href="https://www.insider.com/taylor-swift-crew-give-water-fans-during-hot-brazil-concert-2023-11">paused her show</a> to ask crew members to distribute water to fans.</p>
<h2>Be safety aware</h2>
<p>People who attend mass events also need to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753523002345">be aware</a> of the safety issues related to extreme weather and be prepared.</p>
<p>Public education campaigns can help, as can effectively disseminating safety information to empower attendees to make informed decisions.</p>
<p>For instance, an event organiser can send a text message to all attendees to warn of upcoming weather conditions and a reminder to bring water or wear sunscreen. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/astroworld-tragedy-heres-how-concert-organisers-can-prevent-big-crowds-turning-deadly-171397">Astroworld tragedy: here's how concert organisers can prevent big crowds turning deadly</a>
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<h2>We can expect more of these events</h2>
<p>The tragic incident at the Swift concert and similar examples are not isolated but indicate a broader trend. With climate change, extreme weather events will pose a more common risk at such mass gatherings. </p>
<p>So we need to recognise and integrate this into how we plan for, and assess the risk associated with, future events. This is vital to ensure these gatherings remain celebratory landmarks rather than avoidable disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218341/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Milad Haghani receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DE210100440). </span></em></p>One fan died and others reported burns at the Swift concert. And we’re going to see similar incidents at future concerns if we don’t start planning for extreme weather.Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Public Safety, Disaster Resilience & Urban Mobility, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138462023-10-02T17:47:09Z2023-10-02T17:47:09ZRiskier times on campuses mean we need a tool for prevention and intervention of sexual assaults<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550721/original/file-20230927-29-n78pww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C0%2C6048%2C3965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How post-secondary institutions react after a sexual assault incident can impact campus safety.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/riskier-times-on-campuses-mean-we-need-a-tool-for-prevention-and-intervention-of-sexual-assaults" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The excitement of entering a new academic year for university and college students can be palpable and filled with hope. But the start of the school year in post-secondary settings also has a shadow side, known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15248380221134293">red zone</a>. </p>
<p>The red zone is one of the riskier times for gender-based and sexualized violence to occur — about <a href="https://doi.org/10.3200/JACH.57.3.331-338">50 per cent of sexual assaults on campus</a> happen during this period. The impact on victims can be tremendous and devastating. </p>
<p>Others on campus are left to worry about their personal safety, while families and friends become concerned about their loved ones being on campus grounds or attending campus events. </p>
<p>After an incident of violence occurs, universities and colleges start thinking about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1524838018756121">reputational harm</a> and what impact this might have on enrolment in the long-term.</p>
<h2>Institutional betrayal</h2>
<p>The post-secondary environment is a unique community focused on teaching and learning. Education should be at the heart of these learning environments, but this is affected after on-campus incidents of assault. </p>
<p>Victims have expressed feelings that an assault forces them to the margins of these communities. They experience institutional betrayal when their university or college failed to have policies or measures that would ensure their safety and failed to do what was reasonably expected to prevent further violence. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-sexual-assault-victims-speak-out-their-institutions-often-betray-them-87050">When sexual assault victims speak out, their institutions often betray them</a>
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<p>Post-secondary institutions and their communities should be resolutely driven to maintain a <a href="https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED537696.pdf">strong, safe and quality-focused place of learning</a>. </p>
<p>Universities and colleges also need to focus on prevention and intervention in their campus community, in addition to <a href="https://www.couragetoact.ca/events/responding-to-critical-incidents-of-sexual-violence-at-post-secondary-institutions">effectively responding to victims and the individuals who caused harm</a>. Ensuring campus safety and reducing reputational harm to the institution means assessing every incidence of gender-based and sexualized violence.</p>
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<span class="caption">The start of the school year in post-secondary settings is when 50 per cent of campus sexual assaults can happen.</span>
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<h2>Identifying areas of risk</h2>
<p>It is important to not only assess the risk presented by perpetrators, but to also proactively identify areas within the institution that may enable future gender-based and sexualized violence to occur on campus. This analysis should be the sole responsibility of the institution — using a risk assessment tool can help meet such objectives. </p>
<p>It can be used to identify those areas that are in need of intervention or areas where prevention work can happen.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/addressing-campus-sexual-violence-new-risk-assessment-tool-can-help-administrators-make-difficult-decisions-199714">Addressing campus sexual violence: New risk assessment tool can help administrators make difficult decisions</a>
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<p>In light of the enormous scientific research in the field of risk assessment, it is surprising there has been no tool developed for use in universities and colleges. To address this gap, the <a href="https://www.couragetoact.ca/knowledgecentre">Gender-Based and Sexualized Violence Community Risk Assessment Tool</a> was launched in September.</p>
<p>We developed the tool to help prevent gender-based and sexualized violence on campus. We reviewed existing risk assessment tools for sexual and intimate partner violence and comprehensively reviewed research literature on campus sexual violence and gender-based violence risk factors. </p>
<p>We also conducted an environmental scan of risk assessment tools in use to ensure there weren’t tools that were unpublished but being used by practitioners. Our research helped us identify over 20 risk factors.</p>
<p>We then convened two advisory groups to help us determine which factors would be included in a final tool. Each group was comprised of sexual violence co-ordinators, student conduct officers, academic administrators, violence risk experts and, most importantly, students. These post-secondary stakeholders were drawn from across the country, from a variety of institutions and represented a number of viewpoints from across the post-secondary community. </p>
<p>The resulting tool includes 16 risk factors clustered into four groups related to the victim, campus community, violence incidence and the person who caused harm. A few of these 16 risk factors included institutional student life culture, sexual preoccupation and participation in hypermasculine culture.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">CBC reports on a student who says she experienced assault by a perpetrator who remains on campus.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Risk assessment and decision-making</h2>
<p>When an incident of sexualized and gender-based violence on a campus is reported, an important part of the investigation includes a risk assessment of the person who caused harm. This helps inform decisions and <a href="https://safersocietypress.org/rnr-principles-in-practice/">ensures the level of intervention matches the level of risk</a> to ensure safety.</p>
<p>The current tool goes further by focusing on factors related to the campus community and the victim. These factors provide information that could help identify areas the university or college needs to work on in order to improve safety and better respond to all instances of violence in their campus community.</p>
<p>Campus community risk for sexualized and gender-based violence should be assessed at various stages of a reported incident from initial accusation to investigation, and even after decisions are made about the individual who caused harm. This allows the institution to identify relevant areas where intervention could lower risk, make decisions about the individual who caused harm, and develop programs that would better prevent further incidents.</p>
<h2>Evidence-based decision-making</h2>
<p>Using the Community Risk Assessment Tool allows universities and colleges to make evidence-based decisions about their policies and procedures, <a href="https://www.couragetoact.ca/elp">learning environments</a> and supports for marginalized students. It also helps address a culture of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1097184X211064321">hypermasculine beliefs</a> among campus groups and changing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/088626001016008004">problematic sexual expectations</a> and <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/a0030624">oppressive attitudes</a> on campus.</p>
<p>These decisions can positively influence the entire campus community. More broadly, the use of a risk assessment tool can progressively improve reputational risk by mandating a risk assessment for each incident. This ensures that an institutional audit of campus safety is a fixed and usual course of action. </p>
<p>This ensures a consistent process across all reported incidents may instill some confidence for victims that the university or college’s decisions are reasonably formed based on an objective tool.</p>
<p>Following an incidence of violence, the use of an evidence-based risk assessment tool can only help to promote safety and a sense of accountability by universities and colleges after the fact.</p>
<p>Without such a tool, campuses will be left reacting to incidents of gender-based and sexualized violence as they arise, rather than building a safe and effective learning community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sandy Jung receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. She also provides consultation to Possibility Seeds.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jesmen Mendoza provides consultation to Possibility Seeds. </span></em></p>A new community risk assessment tool allows post-secondary institutions to make evidence-based decisions about their policies and procedures.Sandy Jung, Professor, Department of Psychology, MacEwan UniversityJesmen Mendoza, Psychologist and Faculty Member, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081632023-06-21T22:51:54Z2023-06-21T22:51:54ZTitanic submersible ‘catastrophic implosion’: questions remain about the costs and ethics of rescuing tourist expeditions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533315/original/file-20230621-23-8fpk5h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C244%2C5607%2C3786&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The vessel Polar Prince towing OceanGate Expeditions submersible vessels from St. John's, N.L., as it leaves to tour the Titanic wreck site on May 29, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Coast Guard announced Thursday <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/21/titanic-sub-timeline-titan-submersible-missing-vessel">that debris found on the seafloor</a> was identified as belonging to the Titan, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-missing-titanic-tourist-sub-explained/">the OceanGate submersible that had disappeared on June 18</a>. Teams from different countries — including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany — were conducting search missions under a very tight timeline. </p>
<p>The discovery, close to the site of the Titanic, indicates the end of search-and-rescue operations for the five people onboard, who were killed in a ‘<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/us/submersible-titanic-oceangate-search-thursday/index.html">catastrophic implosion</a>,’ according to the Coast Guard.</p>
<p>As one of the largest international marine search-and-rescue operations, the incident raised questions about risk management, search-and-rescue operations, costs and ethical aspects of responses.</p>
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<h2>Ocean incidents</h2>
<p>A significant number of economic activities — including shipping, fishing and offshore oil and gas drilling — are conducted in marine environments. These activities can lead to occurrences of accidents and casualties of different types. </p>
<p>Annually, a large number of incidents happen in the Canadian marine environment. Between 2011 and 2020, <a href="https://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/marine/2021/ssem-ssmo-2021.html">284 occurrences were reported each year</a> that had an annual average of 15.6 fatalities during the same period. </p>
<p>These numbers suggest that relative to the huge number of marine activities and the number of incidents, conventional marine-based operations are relatively safe and the emergency responses to them are effective. </p>
<h2>An unusual situation</h2>
<p>The search-and-rescue operations <a href="https://oceangate.com/our-subs/titan-submersible.html">for the Titan</a> have been proven to be unusual, as measured by the complexity, costs, time sensitivity and scale. Unlike search-and-rescue operations on the ground that can be undertaken by volunteers and with little or no equipment, marine search and rescue is a <a href="https://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/publications/search-rescue-recherche-sauvetage/sar-canada-res-eng.html">highly specialized operation</a>. </p>
<p>It requires high-tech equipment, tools, training, co-ordination and capacity. In the current case, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/missing-titanic-submersible-live-updates-rcna90315">the search area was not measured in square kilometres or miles</a> — rather, it was in cubic measurements (3D), because the vessel could have been anywhere around the surface, in shallow or deep waters, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/20/us/titanic-missing-submarine">or on the ocean floor</a>.</p>
<p>While there are capable teams with the needed equipment and training for most marine disasters, they are not sufficient to cover a large area with limited information or uncertainty about the situation. </p>
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<h2>Operational outcomes</h2>
<p>This search operation was among the costliest in recent history. We need to wait to see how much of this cost will be covered by insurance, OceanGate or the public. </p>
<p>This event will generate significant discussions around the public burden of private risks and risk-taking behaviours, and how risks in certain areas are regulated. And it could count for about one-third of Canada’s annual average marine fatalities if it’s considered a Canadian incident.</p>
<p>Particularly, it will bring to the forefront questions about <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/extreme-travel-rescue-operations-are-expensive-and-who-pays-is-unclear/">balancing acceptable risks with available emergency response capacities</a>, including search-and-rescue. </p>
<h2>Risk assessments</h2>
<p>When embarking on risky operations, such as deep-sea touristic exploration, two elements need to be added to risk assessments: 1) Do we have adequate and timely internal and external capacity to handle a potential incident?; and 2) What are the total response costs of an incident? </p>
<p>While certain risky activities or operations may be acceptable based on a private assessment of risk, they may not be acceptable if we ponder these two aspects.</p>
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<span class="caption">OceanGate’s Titan submersible dives underwater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(OceanGate Expeditions via AP)</span></span>
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<p>Unfortunately, many conventional risk assessments, particularly in the private sector organizations, do not pay sufficient attention to available emergency response capacities. </p>
<p>When considering <a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/business/titan-submersible-here-s-a-timeline-of-how-rescue-mission-is-unfolding-in-the-atlantic-ocean-news-296702">the Titan’s search-and-rescue operation</a>, it became clear this small emergency surpassed the capacity of the resources that were operating in the area.</p>
<p>Teams from other places and countries joined the effort, but it took several days for a unified command centre for search-and-rescue to take shape.</p>
<p>Conducting a survey of available emergency response capacities to risk assessments can make a significant difference in risk management and regulation.</p>
<p>Similarly, many current risk assessments do not fully include emergency response costs in their calculations. While it is not a major consideration for many regular daily activities and operations because the emergency response is within regular possibilities, certain operations — particularly on remote marine environments — ought to add these costs into their risk assessment. </p>
<p>In doing so, risks may become more or less acceptable in terms of mitigation policies and regulations. Incorporating these aspects into risk assessments and regulations could help ensure that private operators provide additional safety and risk mitigation measures and assume responsibility for incurred costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208163/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A team of rescuers has located debris from the Titan, indicating the end of search-and-rescue efforts. Risky undertakings need to assess the cost and capacity of any potential rescue needs.Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998462023-05-14T11:18:59Z2023-05-14T11:18:59ZWe need to prepare for the public safety hazards posed by artificial intelligence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525641/original/file-20230511-18-3z6quf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3888%2C2566&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Emergency management should account for the risks posed by artificial intelligence.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the most part, the focus of contemporary emergency management has been on <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2023-nrp-pnr/index-en.aspx">natural, technological and human-made hazards</a> such as flooding, earthquakes, tornadoes, industrial accidents, extreme weather events and cyber attacks. </p>
<p>However, with the increase in the availability and capabilities of artificial intelligence, we may soon see emerging public safety hazards related to these technologies that we will need to mitigate and prepare for.</p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, my colleagues and I — along with many other researchers — have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-009-5121-2">leveraging AI</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/IJES-03-2012-0001">develop models</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010268">applications</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2020.117201">that can</a> identify, assess, predict, monitor and detect hazards to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04124-3">inform emergency response operations and decision-making</a>.</p>
<p>We are now reaching a turning point where AI is becoming a potential source of risk at a scale that should be incorporated into risk and emergency management phases — mitigation or prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. </p>
<h2>AI and hazard classification</h2>
<p>AI hazards can be classified into two types: intentional and unintentional. Unintentional hazards are those caused by <a href="https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/planning/RISC/Documents/risc-tham-narrative.pdf">human errors or technological failures</a>. </p>
<p>As the use of AI increases, there will be more adverse events caused by human error in AI models or technological failures in AI based technologies. These events can occur in all kinds of industries including transportation (like drones, trains or self-driving cars), electricity, oil and gas, finance and banking, agriculture, health and mining.</p>
<p>Intentional AI hazards are potential threats that are caused by using AI to harm people and properties. AI can also be used to gain unlawful benefits by compromising security and safety systems.</p>
<p>In my view, this simple intentional and unintentional classification may not be sufficient in case of AI. Here, we need to add a new class of emerging threats — the possibility of AI overtaking human control and decision-making. This may be triggered intentionally or unintentionally. </p>
<p>Many AI experts have already warned <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html">against such potential threats</a>. A recent open letter by researchers, scientists and others involved in the development of AI <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/chatgpt-pause-ai-experiments-open-letter/">called for a moratorium on its further development</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton is interviewed by CBS about the dangers of the technology.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Public safety risks</h2>
<p>Public safety and emergency management experts use risk matrices to assess and compare risks. Using this method, hazards are qualitatively or quantitatively assessed based on their frequency and consequence, and their impacts are classified as low, medium or high. </p>
<p>Hazards that have low frequency and low consequence or impact are considered low risk and no additional actions are required to manage them. Hazards that have medium consequence and medium frequency are considered medium risk. These risks need to be closely monitored. </p>
<p>Hazards with high frequency or high consequence or high in both consequence and frequency are classified as high risks. These risks need to be reduced by taking additional risk reduction and mitigation measures. Failure to take immediate and proper action may result in sever human and property losses. </p>
<p>Up until now, AI hazards and risks have not been added into the risk assessment matrices much beyond organizational use of AI applications. The time has come when we should quickly start bringing the potential AI risks into local, national and global risk and emergency management. </p>
<h2>AI risk assessment</h2>
<p>AI technologies are becoming more widely used by institutions, organizations and companies in different sectors, and hazards associated with the AI are starting to emerge.</p>
<p>In 2018, the accounting firm KPMG developed an “<a href="https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2018/09/ai-risk-and-controls-matrix.pdf">AI Risk and Controls Matrix</a>.” It highlights the risks of using AI by businesses and urges them to recognize these new emerging risks. The report warned that AI technology is advancing very quickly and that risk control measures must be in place before they overwhelm the systems.</p>
<p>Governments have also started <a href="https://cltc.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/AI_Risk_Impact_Assessments.pdf">developing some risk assessment guidelines</a> for the use of AI-based technologies and solutions. However, these guidelines are limited to risks such as algorithmic bias and violation of individual rights.</p>
<p>At the government level, the Canadian government issued the “<a href="https://www.tbs-sct.canada.ca/pol/doc-eng.aspx?id=32592">Directive on Automated Decision-Making</a>” to ensure that federal institutions minimize the risks associated with the AI systems and create appropriate governance mechanisms.</p>
<p>The main objective of the directive is to ensure that when AI systems are deployed, risks to clients, federal institutions and Canadian society are reduced. According to this directive, risk assessments must be conducted by each department to make sure that appropriate safeguards are in place in accordance with the <a href="https://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/pol/doc-eng.aspx?id=16578">Policy on Government Security</a>.</p>
<p>In 2021, the U.S. Congress tasked the National Institute of Standards and Technology with developing an AI risk management framework for the Department of Defense. The proposed voluntary AI risk assessment framework recommends banning <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6395">the use of AI systems that present unacceptable risks</a>.</p>
<h2>Threats and competition</h2>
<p>Much of the national level policy focus on AI has been from national security and global competition perspectives — the national security and economic risks of falling behind in the AI technology. </p>
<p>The U.S. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence highlighted <a href="https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf">national security risks associated with AI</a>. These were not from the public threats of the technology itself, but from losing out in the global competition for AI development in other countries, including China.</p>
<p>In its 2017 <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf"><em>Global Risk Report</em></a>, the World Economic Forum highlighted that AI is only one of emerging technologies that can exacerbate global risk. While assessing the risks posed by the AI, the report concluded that, at that time, super-intelligent AI systems remain a theoretical threat.</p>
<p>However, the latest <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf"><em>Global Risk Report 2023</em></a> does not even mention the AI and AI associated risks which means that the leaders of the global companies that provide inputs to the global risk report had not viewed the AI as an immediate risk.</p>
<h2>Faster than policy</h2>
<p>AI development is progressing much faster than government and corporate policies in understanding, foreseeing and managing the risks. The current global conditions, combined with market competition for AI technologies, make it difficult to think of an opportunity for governments to pause and develop risk governance mechanisms. </p>
<p>While we should collectively and proactively try for such governance mechanisms, we all need to brace for major catastrophic AI’s impacts on our systems and societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Emergency management plans need to address the growing risks emerging from increasing applications of artificial intelligence.Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892172022-08-23T06:26:50Z2022-08-23T06:26:50ZOne disaster after another: why we must act on the reasons some communities are facing higher risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480512/original/file-20220823-13-xjlcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C40%2C3000%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Yang Liu/Xinhua via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New Zealand town of Nelson remains in a <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/300668128/state-of-emergency-in-nelson-extended-til-end-of-august">state of emergency</a>, with nearly 500 homes evacuated, after the region received more than three times its average August rainfall in less than five days last week.</p>
<p>The prospect of yet more flooding is devastating, but thankfully there has been no loss of life.</p>
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<p>Extreme weather is making life increasingly precarious in many other parts of the world, often with a terrible death toll. </p>
<p>As we prepare for a more turbulent future, fuelled by a changing climate, we can learn from the experiences of another New Zealand city, Ōtautahi Christchurch. </p>
<p>People there have lived through a decade of extreme events. They have experienced devastating earthquakes, floods, a terrorist attack, the COVID-19 pandemic, air pollution, growing social inequality and more. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-6863-0">new book</a>, A Decade of Disaster Experiences in Ōtautahi Christchurch: Critical Disaster Studies Perspectives, we argue that our traditional response to disasters is no longer sufficient and we must begin to address the underlying causes that make some communities more vulnerable than others.</p>
<h2>The failures of ‘traditional’ disaster studies</h2>
<p>Traditionally, disaster studies and practices have centred on putting in place measures to contain natural hazards. For example, stop banks are erected to contain flooding. </p>
<p>Risk analysis and treatment options enable specialists to determine the probability and consequences of extreme events and prescribe optimal solutions. In Aotearoa New Zealand, robust <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1991/0069/latest/DLM231907.html">legislation</a> and policy such as the <a href="https://www.doc.govt.nz/about-us/science-publications/conservation-publications/marine-and-coastal/new-zealand-coastal-policy-statement/new-zealand-coastal-policy-statement-2010/">coastal policy statement</a> are in place to improve natural hazard management and build community resilience. </p>
<p>These measures have unquestionably helped to reduce the impacts of extreme events. They have minimised loss of life. However, traditional approaches have not prepared our communities for the disruptive events we face now and in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-making-flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges-and-flash-floods-185364">Climate change is making flooding worse: 3 reasons the world is seeing more record-breaking deluges and flash floods</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Climate change is a game changer. Sea-level rise is unstoppable. Flooding is commonplace. </p>
<p>We describe a new approach to research, policy and operational practice, based on a critical disaster studies perspective. </p>
<h2>Focusing on underlying causes of vulnerability</h2>
<p>The book provides an account of what people in and around the city of Christchurch have lived through in the face of disaster upon disaster upon disaster. </p>
<p>It reveals important lessons from real-world experiences and shares vital insights from Māori and migrant communities on response and recovery efforts as well as by individuals, civil society, the private sector and government. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An engineer entering the construction site around the Christchurch cathedral." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480518/original/file-20220823-26-ooz1k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The earthquake-damaged Christchurch Cathedral is undergoing reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Lakeview Images</span></span>
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<p>A critical disaster studies perspective is distinguished from traditional approaches through its focus on the underlying drivers and root causes of vulnerability and risk that predispose people to harm. </p>
<p>It leverages the social sciences and humanities. It works in cross-disciplinary ways to better understand and address the influence of power, inequity and injustice in constructing vulnerability. It uncovers the everyday reality of disasters for those most susceptible to harm. </p>
<h2>Disasters hit some people harder than others</h2>
<p>Traditionally, a disaster is framed as an abnormal situation in which people, cities and regions are overwhelmed by extreme natural hazard events that exceed coping capacity.</p>
<p>A critical disaster studies perspective recognises that disasters are much more than naturally occurring ruptures. It views disasters as socially constructed and mediated. </p>
<p>In other words, historical and contemporary conditions, like social marginalisation and oppression, impoverishment, racism, sexism, inequity and injustice, predispose some people to much more harm than others in the face of shock and disruptive changes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-flood-maps-show-us-damage-rising-26-in-next-30-years-due-to-climate-change-alone-and-the-inequity-is-stark-175958">New flood maps show US damage rising 26% in next 30 years due to climate change alone, and the inequity is stark</a>
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<p>Vulnerability is not merely periodically revealed by occasional extreme events. It can be an “everyday reality” for some people – made much worse during extreme events. </p>
<p>Inevitably, the root causes of disasters are manifold and interconnected. This was laid bare in the decade of disaster experiences in Ōtautahi Christchurch from 2010. The lessons from these experiences should inform future responses to unfolding climate-compounded disasters and help us navigate the challenging times ahead.</p>
<h2>Lessons from past disasters</h2>
<p>Ōtautahi has become a laboratory for the world – a prelude to a turbulent future. Our book reveals several lessons.</p>
<p>First, vulnerability has a history. Building a city in a drained swamp, at sea level and by a capricious river, made it a disaster waiting to happen. Many of the problems the city’s rebuild has had to reckon with predate the earthquakes. They include colonisation, the declining central city, car dependency and the wellbeing of communities in poorer parts.</p>
<p>Second, rebuilding the city is much more than physical reconstruction. Recovery is chiefly the reconstruction of the city’s soul, its culture and social fabric. It involves ongoing restoration and rebuilding of the lives of individuals, whānau, communities and more. </p>
<p>Restoring and building trust to enable innovation and collaboration turns out to be even more important than marshalling bricks and mortar. And crucially, who is the city for?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artists painted city walls as part of the Christchurch earthquake rebuild." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480525/original/file-20220823-16-uwmzp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rebuilding a city after a disaster is about much more than physical reconstruction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/NigelSpiers</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Third, disaster recovery cannot be dictated from on high. A critical disaster studies perspective recognises the limits of central government. It underscores the importance of mana whenua and local communities to be supported by both local and central government. When it comes to recovery, it is neither top-down nor bottom-up, but both.</p>
<p>Fourth, authentic public engagement and a common vision and purpose are foundational to revealing and addressing the drivers of vulnerability. </p>
<p>From these lessons, we can draw conclusions and advice for future planning and disaster response and recovery:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>do not allow new development in hazardous locations and avoid putting people in harm’s way</p></li>
<li><p>take action now to contain the compounding impacts of climate change, which is driving more intense and frequent extreme events, such as storms, floods and unavoidable sea-level rise</p></li>
<li><p>create space for young people to be part of planning and preparedness – it is their future </p></li>
<li><p>leadership by women enables empathy and emancipation </p></li>
<li><p>reinvigorate local democracy</p></li>
<li><p>avoid privatisation of disaster risk, because civil society holds collective responsibility for past, present and future choices about human development – it is best supported by the private sector and government</p></li>
<li><p>resilience (within limits) is founded upon diversity of people and the ecosystems on which we depend</p></li>
<li><p>put vulnerable people first. This is the cardinal rule of a critical disaster studies perspective.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189217/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Glavovic currently receives funding from various funding bodies including the National Science Challenge: Deep South (MBIE) and from Horizons Regional Council for work on adaptation planning in the face of climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Matthewman receives funding from the Royal Society of New Zealand's Marsden Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shinya Uekusa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is a game changer and our disaster response is no longer sufficient. We must begin to address the underlying causes that make some communities more vulnerable than others.Bruce Glavovic, Professor in Natural Hazards Planning and Resilience, Massey UniversityShinya Uekusa, Lecturer, University of CanterburySteve Matthewman, Professor in Sociology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1883442022-08-09T15:03:58Z2022-08-09T15:03:58ZDo chemicals in sunscreens threaten aquatic life? A new report says a thorough assessment is ‘urgently needed,’ while also calling sunscreens essential protection against skin cancer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478144/original/file-20220808-4922-ds99rt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3794%2C2514&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sunscreens for sale at a Walgreens drug store.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/shelves-of-suntan-lotion-for-sale-in-walgreens-news-photo/665553846">Jeff Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Studies have shown that the same active ingredients in sunscreens that protect people from cancer-causing ultraviolet rays can be toxic to a range of species in oceans, rivers and lakes. With both of these risks in mind, a <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26381/review-of-fate-exposure-and-effects-of-sunscreens-in-aquatic-environments-and-implications-for-sunscreen-usage-and-human-health">new report</a> from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine finds an urgent need for more information about whether these chemicals threaten aquatic life on a broad scale.</em> </p>
<p><em>The report calls on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to conduct a detailed review called an <a href="https://www.epa.gov/risk/ecological-risk-assessment">environmental risk assessment</a> of the likelihood that exposure to one or more of these chemicals, called <a href="https://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/whatwestudy/topics/uvfilters/index.html">UV filters</a>, may harm organisms in saltwater and freshwater ecosystems. The study recommends focusing on two types of settings – coral reefs in shallow waters near shore, and slow-moving freshwater bodies like ponds and marshes – that are heavily used for recreation and/or exposed to wastewater or urban runoff.</em> </p>
<p><em>The study recognizes that sunscreen with a Sun Protection Factor (SPF) of 30 or higher is an effective defense against sunburn and skin cancer, and that making it harder to buy broad-spectrum sunscreen that people will actually use could harm public health. Accordingly, it calls for research examining how changes in sunscreen usage could affect human health. Two members of the study committee explain how their group balanced these concerns.</em></p>
<h2>Many species are exposed to many stresses</h2>
<p><strong>Robert Richmond, Research Professor and Director, Kewalo Marine Laboratory, University of Hawaii at Manoa</strong></p>
<p>Studies to date have provided compelling laboratory evidence that some UV filters can have toxic effects on aquatic species, including <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abo4627">corals</a>, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abn2600">anemones</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b02418">zebrafish</a>, that are exposed to the chemicals. These findings have raised concerns about sunscreens’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115894">larger-scale impacts on biological communities and ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>But outcomes in the environment will differ depending on what compounds, ecosystems and local environmental conditions are involved. That’s especially true for coral reefs. The committee highlighted reefs because they are <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/coral-reefs.html">ecologically, economically and culturally valuable</a>, and attract large numbers of tourists who use sunscreens. </p>
<p>Coral reefs are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.016">declining worldwide</a> due to multiple human-induced disturbances. Some of these disturbances are global, such as <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coralreef-climate.html">ocean warming and acidification driven by climate change</a>. Other stressors, such as coastal water quality, are more local. </p>
<p>Studying the effects of chemicals on corals and coral reefs is challenging because they are both complex systems. Reef-building corals are a combination of an animal, single-celled algae and rich populations of bacteria living and working together. Coral reefs are made up of thousands of interacting organisms. </p>
<p>Importantly, many stress responses in corals occur without causing outright death, but impair their health, growth, resilience and even ability to reproduce. Scientists need to know more about these responses to guide effective management responses and interventions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of parrotfish swim over a reef of res, white and yellow corals." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478146/original/file-20220808-14-54tuwr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Healthy coral reefs like this one in American Samoa support such diverse communities of fish and other organisms that they often are called the rainforests of the sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.016">Kevin Lino, NOAA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After in-depth reviews of the existing data, our study committee recommended that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should undertake an ecological risk assessment of the 17 UV filters used in sunscreens sold in the U.S. Such a study would include a comparison of toxicity findings to relevant concentrations and exposure conditions. </p>
<p>For example, what happens to organisms exposed to these chemicals occasionally versus those exposed regularly, in calm bays or along open, wave-swept coasts? How do UV filters differ in whether they break down in water, or accumulate in sediments or the tissues of living organisms? </p>
<p>In our view, an ecological risk assessment would provide EPA and others the basis for sound and effective policy development. The sooner this happens and the results are applied to the regulatory process, the better for everyone who is affected, including future generations.</p>
<h2>The challenge of understanding long-term effects on humans and the environment</h2>
<p><strong>Karen Glanz, George A. Weiss University Professor and Director, UPenn Prevention Research Center, University of Pennsylvania</strong></p>
<p>The question of whether UV filters pose harm to the environment while helping to reduce skin damage and prevent skin cancer is a conundrum. It seemingly pits human and environmental health against each other head-to-head and asks policymakers, medical experts and the public to choose between them. </p>
<p>Humans need sunlight to live, but overexposure to the sun’s damaging rays – ultraviolet radiation – causes sunburn and wrinkles and is a risk factor for the development of skin cancers, including the most deadly type, <a href="https://www.cancer.org/cancer/melanoma-skin-cancer/about/what-is-melanoma.html">melanoma</a>. Routine use of <a href="https://www.aad.org/public/diseases/skin-cancer/prevent/how">broad-spectrum sunscreen with SPF 30+</a> when outdoors has been found to prevent skin damage and skin cancer. But sunscreens are most effective as part of a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/skin/basic_info/sun-safety.htm">set of behaviors</a> that also includes wearing hats and cover-up clothing and seeking shade. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"616291967698386944"}"></div></p>
<p>Most people in the U.S. don’t practice these behaviors frequently or thoroughly enough. So it’s important to weigh very carefully the potential effects of restricting the choice of available sunscreens. </p>
<p>Some jurisdictions already restrict the sale of certain sunscreens because concerned advocates believe doing so will be good for the environment. In the U.S., they include <a href="https://www.cntraveler.com/story/these-destinations-are-banning-certain-sunscreens">Hawaii, the U.S Virgin Islands and the city of Key West, Florida</a>. Our report doesn’t draw a definitive conclusion about whether these measures are scientifically justified or effective. Rather, it emphasizes analyzing whether and how they may affect human health as well as the
environment.</p>
<p>The study draws attention to the challenge of understanding risks from UV filters to aquatic environments under various conditions, and in the context of overarching environmental stressors such as rising sea temperatures. It’s important to understand that for both environmental and human health issues, laboratory studies don’t always match what happens in the environment. </p>
<p>Studies of model systems such as bacteria and yeast, and organisms such as fish embryos and insect larvae, can yield findings that do not hold up in studies of humans. For both the environment and humans, it may not be possible or ethical to conduct true experiments that test the long-term effects of chemicals in UV filters. </p>
<p>Members of our committee wrestled to interpret the available evidence, and also with the gaps in that evidence. Ultimately we concluded that the science is not settled, but that there is much to build on to advance understanding of this issue. Our conclusions are not a win/lose outcome for either the environment or humans. Rather, they point to a need to think both broadly and strategically for the benefit of people and the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Richmond receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Pew Environmental Group, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, the H.W. Hoover Foundation and the Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources.
He has been a Pew Fellow in Marine Conservation, and an Aldo Leopold Fellow in Environmental Leadership, and has served on the Board of Directors of the Palau International Coral Reef Center and as Science Advisor to the All Islands Committee of the US Coral Reef Task Force. He was a member of a previous study committee organized by the National Academies, on Interventions to Increase the Resilience of Coral Reefs.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Glanz conducts research cancer prevention and control, theories of health behavior, and social and health policy. She has conducted descriptive, observational, methodological, intervention, and dissemination research in skin cancer prevention since 1993. She has worked on analyses of national surveys of UV exposure and sun protection; developed, analyzed and validated measures and methods of skin cancer prevention research; and led evidence reviews for skin cancer prevention. Her research has been funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and the Skin Cancer Foundation. Dr. Glanz served on the US Task Force on Community Preventive Services for 10 years and co-led reviews of the effectiveness of skin cancer prevention programs. She is an elected member of the National Academy of Medicine. </span></em></p>Rising concern about possible environmental damage from the active ingredients in sunscreens could have ripple effects on public health if it causes people to use less of them.Robert Richmond, Professor of Biology and Director, Kewalo Marine Laboratory, University of HawaiiKaren Glanz, George A. Weiss University Professor and Director, UPenn Prevention Research Center, University of PennsylvaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1867982022-07-28T12:27:51Z2022-07-28T12:27:51ZFlood risk ratings: Translating risk to future costs helps homebuyers and renters grasp the odds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475927/original/file-20220725-10345-ggrsw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C5647%2C3719&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Repairing storm damage is expensive, and insurance covers less than many people realize.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kim-decota-climbs-through-her-in-laws-storm-damaged-home-on-news-photo/1234999420">Sean Rayford/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you look at homes on real estate websites today, you’ll likely see risk ratings for flooding, hurricanes and even wildfires. </p>
<p>In theory, summarizing risk information like this should help homebuyers and renters make more informed housing choices. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-home-buyers-are-ignoring-rising-flood-risks-despite-clear-warnings-and-rising-insurance-premiums-179603">surveys show</a> it isn’t working that way, at least not yet. Housing developments and home sales are <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-flood-maps-show-us-damage-rising-26-in-next-30-years-due-to-climate-change-alone-and-the-inequity-is-stark-175958">still expanding in flood-</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-case-for-retreat-in-the-age-of-fire-184031">wildfire-prone areas</a>.</p>
<p>The problem isn’t necessarily that consumers are ignoring the numbers. In our view, as experts in hazards geography, it’s that the way risk information is being presented ignores long-established lessons from behavioral science.</p>
<p>These ratings tend to appear as a single number for each hazard and lack an <a href="https://elke-u-weber.com/media/2017_bsp_yoeli.pdf">intuitive interpretation</a>. What does it mean to have a heat risk of 84 (“extreme”) with 52 hot days in 2050, or a flood risk of 10 (“extreme”)?</p>
<p>We believe that current and future hazard and climate risks can more effectively be translated as costs, savings and trade-offs. </p>
<h2>Making risk personal</h2>
<p>Studies show that people rely on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00350-w">personal experience as the dominant driver</a> when considering risk. In the absence of having personally experienced a flood or wildfire damage, they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916517709561">need actionable and understandable information</a>.</p>
<p>We belong to a group of more than 20 interdisciplinary researchers at universities in Arizona, Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina who are trying to improve risk rating information. We’re currently testing an online <a href="https://www.hazardaware.org/">tool for the Gulf Coast</a> that provides residents with actionable resilience information. It is an early model of what residential risk reporting could look like.</p>
<p>Rather than just presenting a score, the tool offers information on the costs annually and over time that one can expect from each hazard, such as flooding or wind damage, and how the home’s census block compares with the local area, county and state. To capture the effects of sea-level rise, for example, we model the number of years it will take for a home to go from outside a high flood risk area to being inside.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screengrab from HazardAware shows a specific home in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, facing costs of around $5,750 over five years and $34,500 over the life of a 30-year mortgage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=263&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475478/original/file-20220721-14414-lhtf0a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A hazard cost summary for a home in Louisiana shows what risk looks like in dollars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.hazardaware.org/HazardMitigation.aspx">HazardAware</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Homebuyers’ psychological hurdles</h2>
<p>The development of real estate-focused climate and hazard risk metrics, such as those offered by <a href="https://firststreet.org/risk-factor/flood-factor/">First Street Foundation</a> and <a href="https://climatecheck.com/">ClimateCheck</a>, is a step in the right direction, going beyond government risk maps that provide <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/mapping">risk data by county</a>. The next step is to ground those numbers in behavioral science research.</p>
<p>People do not ignore risk ratings per se, but the point at which information <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x">motivates people to take protective actions</a> varies.</p>
<p>The motivation hurdle is lower for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00350-w">people with past experience</a>, those who are aware of the risks and receptive to this kind of information, and those who have the financial resources to choose safer communities.</p>
<p>For others, the hurdle can be much higher. They might struggle with <a href="https://wsp.wharton.upenn.edu/book/ostrich-paradox/">common decision biases</a>, such as oversimplifying the severity of the risk, which leads to either an overestimation or underestimation of the threat depending on the type of hazard, focusing on today rather than the future, or simply assuming nothing bad is going to happen. They might just follow what others do – which research finds is what <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00350-w">most of us do when deciding on a home</a>.</p>
<p>Many people also have unrealistic beliefs that <a href="https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-195">insurance and government payouts after disasters</a> will fully compensate them for their losses, and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000268">false sense of security</a> that building codes and permitting mean homes are built to withstand any natural hazard. </p>
<p>The combination of these decision biases causes residents to underestimate the risk and impacts from disasters and climate change. Most people then underprepare and don’t <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb32">consider these risks in their housing choices</a>.</p>
<p>Risk ratings could help overcome those biases by expressing risk information in relatable terms such as the number of assistance requests made to the Federal Emergency Management Agency after disasters, the rejection rate and the average FEMA funds received per applicant in the area.</p>
<p><iframe id="j73PX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/j73PX/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Next step: Pull it all together in one location</h2>
<p>Ideally, homebuyers and renters would have a one-stop shop for all of this risk information about a property. To be prepared for climate change, risk must become a factor in housing choices similar to square footage and number of bedrooms.</p>
<p>Currently, risk data is scattered. For example, people can learn about insurance costs by checking <a href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home">flood insurance rate maps</a>, which outline the areas with a 1% or greater annual chance of flooding. Or they can ask an insurance agent to generate a Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange report, which lists all flood insurance claims made on a property in the past five to seven years. A handful of states such as California require sellers to disclose the risk of natural hazards to the property.</p>
<p>In our view, the continuing influx of residents into high-risk areas, along with skyrocketing disaster losses, presents an urgent need to give prospective renters and buyers better information about the risks properties face.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Gall receives funding from the National Academies' Gulf Research Program, USAID, U.S. Housing and Urban Development, and Feeding America. She is affiliated with the National Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA), the Association of American Geographers (AAG), the North American Alliance of Hazards and Disaster Research Insitutes (NAAHDRI), and the Arizona Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Emrich works for the University of Central Florida, the creator of <a href="http://www.vulnerabilitymap.org">www.vulnerabilitymap.org</a>. He received funding from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's Gulf Research Program to build <a href="http://www.hazardaware.org">www.hazardaware.org</a></span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marie Aquilino receives funding from the National Academies' Gulf Research Program, USAID, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. </span></em></p>Telling people they have a flood risk rating of 10 is less powerful than explaining how much they’re likely to pay to deal with flooding over the next five years.Melanie Gall, Clinical Professor and Co-Director, Center for Emergency Management and Homeland Security, Watts College, Arizona State UniversityChristopher Emrich, Associate Professor of Public Administration, University of Central FloridaMarie Aquilino, Senior Research Analyst in Emergency Management, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858222022-06-25T13:43:43Z2022-06-25T13:43:43ZFirst bipartisan gun control bill in a generation signed into law: 3 essential reads on what it means<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470892/original/file-20220625-26-ntg2f0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C26%2C5955%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden signs the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act into law.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/first-lady-jill-biden-looks-on-as-us-president-joe-biden-news-photo/1241520942?adppopup=true">Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden signed into law on June 25, 2022, a bipartisan bill that is the first significant change in federal gun legislation in nearly three decades. </p>
<p>Known as the <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bipartisan_safer_communities_act_text.pdf">Bipartisan Safer Communities Act</a>, the bill was written in response to the shootings in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/14/nyregion/buffalo-shooting">Buffalo, New York</a>, and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/month-uvalde-massacre-revelations-continue-compound-communitys-grief/story?id=85587894">Uvalde, Texas</a>, and sped through a usually slow-moving Congress.</p>
<p>Though the bill’s limited scope has left many disappointed, it does tighten up gun control in a number of key areas. </p>
<p>As the bill was making its way through Congress, The Conversation published a number of articles looking at its provisions and how effective they might be in addressing America’s gun violence crisis.</p>
<h2>1. Support for states’ red flag laws</h2>
<p>Among the elements of the new law is support for states to pass what are called “red flag laws.”</p>
<p>LaGrange College political science professor <a href="https://www.lagrange.edu/Faculty-Directory/Dr.%20John-Turess.html">John A. Tures</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-flag-laws-saved-7-300-americans-from-gun-deaths-in-2020-alone-and-could-have-saved-11-400-more-185009">writes that these laws</a> allow police to take guns from people deemed a threat to themselves or others and bar them buying firearms. </p>
<p><iframe id="W8RK4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W8RK4/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To determine if red flag laws reduce gun deaths overall, Tures examined <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm">states’ firearm death rates</a>, in light of whether they had a red flag law or not, in each of three years – 2018, 2019 and 2020.</p>
<p>On average, states with red flag laws in 2019 and 2020 had significantly lower firearm death rates than states without them. In 2018, the average death rates for both groups were closer, but states with red flag laws still had a meaningfully lower rate. </p>
<p>“In 2020, if there were no red flag laws, I estimate that 52,530 Americans would have died in gun deaths. The number actually recorded was 45,222, indicating red flag laws saved 7,308 American lives that year,” Tures writes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/red-flag-laws-saved-7-300-americans-from-gun-deaths-in-2020-alone-and-could-have-saved-11-400-more-185009">Red flag laws saved 7,300 Americans from gun deaths in 2020 alone – and could have saved 11,400 more</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. What is the ‘boyfriend loophole’?</h2>
<p>One of the sticking points in negotiations over the bill that was eventually resolved was the “boyfriend loophole.” </p>
<p>Under current federal legislation, Michigan State University criminal justice professor <a href="https://cj.msu.edu/directory/zeoli-april.html">April M. Zeoli </a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/would-closing-the-boyfriend-loophole-in-gun-legislation-save-lives-heres-what-the-research-says-185481">explains</a> intimate partner relationships are defined only as those in which two people are or were married, live or lived together as a couple, or have a child together. </p>
<p>People who were in a dating relationship are largely excluded from this definition. </p>
<p>As a result, Zeoli writes, “dating partners are exempt from federal laws that prohibit those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes, or those who are under domestic violence restraining orders, from buying or possessing a firearm.” </p>
<p>This is what is referred to as the “boyfriend loophole.”</p>
<p>Research suggests that when a violent male partner has access to a gun, the risk of murder to the female partner increases fivefold. </p>
<p>With Biden signing the bill into law, the wording extends the ban to “those who have or have had a continuing relationship of a romantic or intimate nature.” </p>
<p>Though the bill will close the loophole for those convicted of domestic violence misdemeanor crimes, it does not cover restraining order laws.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-closing-the-boyfriend-loophole-in-gun-legislation-save-lives-heres-what-the-research-says-185481">Will closing the 'boyfriend loophole' in gun legislation save lives? Here's what the research says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Does the law protect schools?</h2>
<p>The new law would provide US$1 billion to help schools put in place comprehensive strategies to create safe and healthy learning environments, including $300 million to increase access to mental health services. </p>
<p>Part of the strategy involves risk assessment. </p>
<p>In the years since the Columbine shooting in 1999, researchers and federal law enforcement agencies have studied school shootings and developed risk assessments to gauge the likelihood of actual violence by a young person identified as a possible risk.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.newark.rutgers.edu/about-us/have-you-met-rutgers-newark/paul-boxer">Paul Boxer</a>, a Rutgers University - Newark psychology professor, explains, <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-reduce-school-shootings-183965">the assessments are conducted by professionals that include police officers, teachers and mental health counselors</a>.</p>
<p>Together, they determine a young person’s risk for violence.</p>
<p>“These teams may not be able to prevent every possible incident,” Boxer cautions. “Still, this sort of approach is critical to improving the process of identifying and stopping potential shooters overall.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-reduce-school-shootings-183965">5 ways to reduce school shootings</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
After years of gridlock, Congress passed significant gun control legislation for the first time in the last 30 years.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822872022-05-17T12:26:39Z2022-05-17T12:26:39ZIt’s impossible to determine your personal COVID-19 risks and frustrating to try – but you can still take action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463465/original/file-20220516-23-r0etgg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=151%2C92%2C4901%2C3581&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before the pandemic, an intergenerational tea party wouldn't have seemed a risky proposition.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mature-woman-with-her-favorite-grandchild-royalty-free-image/947724704?adppopup=true">fotostorm/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“How risky is being indoors with our 10-year-old granddaughter without masks? We have plans to have birthday tea together. Are we safe?”</p>
<p>That question, from a woman named Debby in California, is just one of hundreds I’ve received from concerned people who are worried about COVID-19. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xDbfMhwAAAAJ&hl=en">I’m an epidemiologist</a> and one of the women behind <a href="https://dearpandemic.org/">Dear Pandemic</a>, a science communication project that has delivered practical pandemic advice on social media since the beginning of the pandemic. </p>
<p>How risky is swim team? How risky is it to go to my orthodontist appointment? How risky is going to the grocery store with a mask on if no one else is wearing one and my father is an organ transplant recipient? How risky is it to have a wedding with 200 people, indoors, and the reception hall has a vaulted ceiling? And on and on.</p>
<p>These questions are <a href="https://dearpandemic.org/how-safe-is-my-specific-situation-event-activity/">hard to answer</a>, and even when we try, the answers are unsatisfying.</p>
<p>So in early April 2022, when Anthony Fauci, the president’s chief medical advisor, told Americans that from here on out, each of us is going to have to <a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220411/fauci-weigh-personal-risk-amid-covid-uptick">do our own personal risk assessment</a>, I put my head down on my desk.</p>
<p>Individualized risk assessment is not a reasonable ask, even for someone who does risk assessment for a living, let alone for the rest of us. It’s impossible to evaluate our own risk for any given situation, and the impossibility of the task can make us feel like giving up entirely. So instead of doing that, I suggest focusing on risk reduction. Reframing in this way brings us back to the realm of what we can control and to the tried and true evidence-based strategies: wearing masks, getting vaccinated and boosted, avoiding indoor crowds and improving ventilation. </p>
<h2>A cascade of unknowable variables</h2>
<p>In my experience, nonscientists and epidemiologists use the word “risk” to mean different things. To most people, risk means a quality – something like danger or vulnerability.</p>
<p>When epidemiologists and other scientists use the word risk, though, we’re talking about a math problem. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv001">Risk is the probability of a particular outcome</a>, in a particular population at a particular time. To give a simple example, the chances that a coin flip will be heads is 1 in 2.</p>
<p>As public health researchers, we often offer risk information in this format: The probability that an unvaccinated person will die of COVID-19 if they catch it is about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464">1 in 200</a>. As many as <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/6may2022">1 in 8 people with COVID-19</a> will have symptoms persisting for weeks or months after recovering.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="white-haired man in jacket and tie seated at mic with 'Dr. Fauci' on name plate" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463466/original/file-20220516-26-zikrhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anthony Fauci wore a mask in advance of Senate testimony.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/director-of-the-national-institute-of-allergy-and-news-photo/1237661251">Shawn Thew/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To embark on your personal risk assessment, as Fauci casually suggested, you first have to decide what outcome you’re talking about. People often aren’t very specific when they consider risk in a qualitative sense; they tend to lump a lot of different risks together. But risk is not a general concept. It’s always the risk of a specific outcome.</p>
<p>Let’s think about Debby. First, there’s the risk that she will be exposed to COVID-19 during tea; this depends on her granddaughter. Where does she live? How many kids at her school have COVID-19 this week? Will she take a rapid test before she comes over? These factors all influence the granddaughter’s risk of exposing Debby to COVID-19, but I don’t know any of them and likely neither does Debby. Given the lack of systematic testing, I have no idea how many people in my own community have COVID-19 right now. At this point, our best guess at community rates is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/surveillance/wastewater-surveillance/wastewater-surveillance.html">literally in the toilet</a> – <a href="https://theconversation.com/wastewater-monitoring-took-off-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-heres-how-it-could-help-head-off-future-outbreaks-180775">monitoring sewage for the coronavirus</a>.</p>
<p>If I assume that Debby’s granddaughter does have COVID-19 on the appointed day, I can start thinking about Debby’s downstream risks: whether she’ll get COVID-19 from her granddaughter; the chances that she’ll be hospitalized and that she’ll die; and the probability that she’ll have <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html">long COVID</a>. I can also consider the risk that Debby will catch COVID-19 and then give it to others, perpetuating an outbreak. If she gets sick, the whole hierarchy of risks comes into play for everyone Debby sees after she is infected. </p>
<p>Finally, there are competing risks. If Debby decides to skip the party, there may be risks to her own or her granddaughter’s mental health or their relationship. Many skipped celebrations in many families <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nobody-will-ever-agree-on-whether-covid-lockdowns-were-worth-it-161154">could negatively affect the economy</a>. People could lose business; they could lose their jobs.</p>
<p>Each of these probabilities is influenced by a cascade of fickle conditions. Some of the factors that shape risks are in your control. For example, I decided to get vaccinated and boosted. Therefore, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7112e1.htm">I’m less likely to end up in the hospital and to die if I get COVID-19</a>. But some risks are not in your control – age, other health conditions, gender, race and the behavior of the people all around you. And many, many of the risk factors are simply unknowns. We’ll never be able to accurately evaluate the whole volatile landscape of risk for a particular situation and come up with a number. </p>
<h2>Taking charge of what you can</h2>
<p>There will never be a situation where I can say to Debby: The risk is 1 in 20. And even if I could, I’m not sure it would be helpful. Most people have a very hard time understanding probabilities they encounter every day, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/20445911.2018.1553884">the chance that it will rain</a>.</p>
<p>The statistical risk of a particular outcome doesn’t address Debby’s underlying question: Are we safe?</p>
<p>Nothing is entirely safe. If you want my professional opinion on whether it’s safe to walk down the sidewalk, I will have to say no. Bad things happen. I know someone who tore a tendon in her hand while putting a fitted sheet on a bed last week.</p>
<p>It’s much more practical to ask: What can I do to reduce the risk? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="young girl shows off her 'I got my COVID-19 vaccine' sticker" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463468/original/file-20220516-19-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Getting vaccinated is one important way to cut your risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/girl-shows-her-sticker-after-being-vaccinated-at-a-covid-19-news-photo/1240240694">Zou Zheng/Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Focusing on actions that reduce risk frees us from obsessing over unanswerable questions with useless answers so we can focus on what is within our control. I will never know precisely how risky Debby’s tea is, but I <a href="https://dearpandemic.org/protecting-against-new-covid-virus-variants/">do know how to make the risks smaller</a>. </p>
<p>I suspect the question folks are really asking is: How can I manage the risks? I like this question better because it has an answer: You should do what you can. If it’s reasonable to wear a mask, wear one. <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-you-wear-a-mask-on-a-plane-bus-or-train-when-theres-no-mandate-4-essential-reads-to-help-you-decide-181582">Yes, even if it isn’t required</a>. If it’s reasonable to do an <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-how-accurate-are-rapid-antigen-tests-two-testing-experts-explain-the-latest-data-180405">at-home antigen test</a> before you see your vulnerable grandparents, do that. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/index.html">Get vaccinated and boosted</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.039">Tell your friends and family</a> that you did, and why. Choose outdoor gatherings. <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-indoor-air-clean-can-reduce-the-chance-of-spreading-coronavirus-149512">Open a window</a>. </p>
<p>Constantly assessing and reassessing risks has <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-decision-making-is-difficult-and-exhausting-heres-the-psychology-that-explains-why-176968">given many people decision fatigue</a>. I feel that too. But you don’t need to recalibrate risks of everything, every day, for every variant, because the strategies to reduce risk remain the same. Reducing risk – even if it’s just a little bit – is better than doing nothing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Malia Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People want a simple answer. Is this action safe? But despite Anthony Fauci bouncing responsibility for COVID-19 risk assessment to individuals, your risk can’t be boiled down to one probability.Malia Jones, Scientist in Health Geography, University of Wisconsin-MadisonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819222022-05-15T10:44:48Z2022-05-15T10:44:48ZTo reduce corporate emissions, CEOs need to be bold risk takers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462893/original/file-20220512-23-kmtyni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5504%2C3644&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Carbon-emitting companies are significant contributors to the climate crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is widely recognized as one of the most profound challenges ever to face the human race and life on Earth. Among the different factors identified by climate scientists, greenhouse gas emissions — <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data">which have doubled since 1990</a> — are the main contributors to global climate change.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions">significant contributors to the climate crisis</a>, carbon-emitting companies are under <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/strategy/impact-and-opportunities-of-climate-change-on-business.html">increasing regulatory and social pressure</a> to reduce their carbon footprints. Long-term climate change results can only be achieved by identifying why certain firms are still emitting <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/causes.html">such high amounts of greenhouse gases</a> and addressing those underlying causes.</p>
<p>As a society, we are prone to reactionary, not preventative, approaches when it comes to addressing the environmental harms done by corporations. The Canadian federal government’s proposed <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/carbon-capture-credit-ipcc/">tax credit for investing in carbon capture, storage and removal</a> is one recent reactionary example. If we want to meet our climate goals, we need to use more preventative approaches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man sitting at a table with technological equipment on it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462898/original/file-20220512-20-6krkt7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government is a supporter of carbon capture technology, like the foam bioreactor pictured here alongside Carlo Montemagno, the former director of the University of Alberta’s Ingenuity Lab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Risk taking and climate change</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-021-05031-8">recently published paper</a>, my colleagues and I examined whether a CEO’s risk aversion influenced corporate carbon emissions. Risk aversion is the extent to which CEOs “play it safe” when it comes to decision-making. A risk-averse CEO, for example, will not make risky investments — even if those investments have the potential to be profitable in the long term.</p>
<p>Our research confirmed our initial hypothesis that risk-averse CEOs were more likely to lead firms with higher carbon emissions. They were unwilling to take the bold steps necessary to invest in greener projects to reduce their carbon footprints. Instead, they usually made immoral, yet rational, decisions that prioritized profit over sustainability.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Office building with Maple Leaf logo on the front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462896/original/file-20220512-14-wig8qc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maple Leaf Foods president and CEO Michael McCain committed to taking the company carbon neutral in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From an economic perspective, it’s rational for CEOs to invest in sectors that increase carbon emissions, if those sectors make them money. However, investing in those sectors is also immoral because of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions-drivers-impacts.html">detrimental impacts carbon emissions have</a> on the environment and people’s lives.</p>
<p>Ultimately, bold and risk-seeking CEOs are the ones responsible for the drastic changes needed to reduce corporate emissions. For example, Maple Leaf Foods president and CEO Michael McCain <a href="https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/business/sylvain-charlebois-behind-maple-leaf-foods-bold-call-to-become-carbon-neutral-374081/">made the bold move take his company carbon neutral</a> in 2019. Other CEOs should follow suit.</p>
<h2>Enticing CEOs with better pay</h2>
<p>CEOs are the strategic leaders of corporations and, often, their pay is the only leverage their companies have on them. Because of this, one of the most effective ways to reduce a firm’s carbon footprint over the long run is to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/12/perspectives/climate-carbon-emissions-ceo-pay/index.html">entice CEOs with monetary compensation</a>.</p>
<p>While there may be <a href="https://financialpost.com/investing/climate-change-the-opportunities-and-risks-for-investors">short-term repercussions for investing in carbon footprint reductions</a>, such as lower profitability, cash depletion or increased debt, this should not impact CEO pay. Instead of punishing CEOs for implementing environmentally friendly policies, they should be compensated. </p>
<p>There is a chance that corporations and investors might have to take the hit in the short-term, but <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinessdevelopmentcouncil/2021/10/04/how-sustainability-can-be-profitable-for-your-business/?sh=5484ae56592a">in the long run it will pay off</a>. Consumers share the same environment as corporations, which means that doing right by the environment results in buy-in from sustainability minded consumers — now the <a href="https://f.hubspotusercontent20.net/hubfs/4783129/An%20EcoWakening_Measuring%20awareness,%20engagement%20and%20action%20for%20nature_FINAL_MAY%202021%20(1).pdf">majority of the consumer base</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man opening an envelope at a desk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462894/original/file-20220512-21-f7jbk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the most effective ways to reduce a firm’s carbon footprint over the long run is to entice CEOs with monetary compensation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Similarly, CEOs should be penalized for not achieving certain carbon reduction goals. Naysayers may state that some of those <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/12/03/climate-change-nestle-ceo-net-zero-carbon-emissions/">carbon emissions are not within the control of the CEO</a> and they cannot change it overnight. While this is correct, CEOs can still take steps to lower emissions in the long run, without pay cuts and job losses.</p>
<h2>CEOs need to take risks</h2>
<p>Our findings illustrate that not only are overly risk-averse CEOs hesitant to take steps to reduce carbon emissions, but that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/16/oil-firms-climate-claims-are-greenwashing-study-concludes">carbon-emitting firms use greenwashing</a> to cover up their environmental harms. Greenwashing corporations have large carbon footprints but portray themselves as environmentally friendly to investors.</p>
<p>To effectively reduce carbon emissions, CEOs and their companies must take bold, risky steps, like divesting from current profitable ventures that have higher carbon emissions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.064">in favour of investing in green technology</a>, which may or may not succeed.</p>
<p>Policymakers at all levels of government, industry regulators and institutional investors like the <a href="https://www.otpp.com/en-ca/about-us/news-and-insights/2021/ontario-teachers-pension-plan-commits-to-net-zero-emissions-by-2050/">Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan</a> must team up and mandate that corporations provide CEOs with financial compensation for reducing carbon footprints. CEOs will listen carefully when their bread and butter is at stake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181922/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashrafee Tanvir Hossain receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Policymakers, industry regulators and investors must team up to mandate that corporations provide CEOs with financial compensation for reducing carbon footprints.Ashrafee Tanvir Hossain, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1766242022-03-08T16:35:43Z2022-03-08T16:35:43ZNon-invasive prenatal testing: Online discussions show risk perception is highly personal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449639/original/file-20220302-15-1v7h0jv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=714%2C0%2C5995%2C4476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Redditors are eager to share their perspectives, knowledge and experiences of non-invasive prenatal testing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some say we are culturally obsessed with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/risk-society">managing risk</a>. You might disagree, but once you become pregnant, and especially as a first time parent-to-be, it can sure feel that way.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, most people <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/58063/risk-by-dan-gardner/9780771036897">struggle with assessing risk accurately</a>. These challenges stem from the quality of <a href="https://www.elon.edu/u/imagining/wp-content/uploads/sites/964/2019/07/Future_of_Info_Environment_Elon_University_Pew_10-18-17.pdf">information that circulates</a>, but also from <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/">biases that hinder sound thinking</a>. In addition, not everyone agrees on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13698575.2013.859231">pregnancy-related risks</a>, and much has been written about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13698575.2019.1649922">over-medicalization of pregnancy</a> that may generate excessive worry and unnecessary testing.</p>
<p>In a growing numbers of pregnancies, people have been making use of an emerging technology called non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) — or NIPS (S for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenmatloff/2022/01/06/what-the-nytimes-got-wrong-on-prenatal-screening/?sh=3e12eb4237a7">screening</a>) — which analyzes tiny fragments of DNA from the placenta that circulate in maternal blood to assess the chance that the fetus has certain genetic conditions. The test is non-invasive to the fetus, but does involve taking a sample of the mother’s blood.</p>
<p>As researchers examining public perceptions and ethics, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pd.5841">our latest research</a> shows just how complex it can be for the public to use this test.</p>
<p>NIPT can be performed as early as nine weeks into the pregnancy. It can assess risk for genetic anomalies such as trisomies 13, 18 and 21, which cause Patau, Edwards and Down syndromes, respectively, with relatively high reliability. While it has the potential, <a href="https://www.vcgs.org.au/sites/default/files/general/partum_post_vol3iss2_2019.pdf">albeit rarely</a>, to return false positive or false negative results, it poses no increased risk of miscarriage like diagnostic invasive tests, such as <a href="https://myhealth.alberta.ca/Health/pages/conditions.aspx?hwid=hw1810">amniocentesis</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cropped image of a pregnant woman with one hand on her belly while a health-care worker prepared to draw blood from her other arm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449436/original/file-20220302-17-sh7g3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NIPT analyzes tiny fragments of DNA from the placenta that circulate in maternal blood to assess the chance that the fetus has certain genetic conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s a powerful tool, but also one that comes with <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/raymond-j-de-souza-the-tragedy-of-eugenics-and-the-babies-not-born">controversy</a>, especially when used to <a href="https://thednaexchange.com/2022/01/08/the-questions-we-should-really-be-asking-after-reading-the-ny-times-article-about-prenatal-cfdna-screening-for-microdeletions/">detect rarer conditions</a> and when marketed by companies inflating its potential as a screening tool.</p>
<p>NIPT use is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.13841">increasing around the world</a>. Some countries now offer it, free of charge, to all pregnant persons. Other countries do so for those deemed “high risk” — a sometimes complicated determination.</p>
<p>Canadian decision-makers are now asking whether NIPT should be publicly funded and <a href="https://www.cmaj.ca/content/193/30/E1156">offered to all pregnant persons</a>. This decision comes with challenges. There are issues related to cost, and patient and practitioner education, but also of increased <a href="https://ijwhr.net/pdf/pdf_IJWHR_406.pdf">medicalization of pregnancy</a>. Public funding could also have negative consequences for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/hast.793">disability rights</a>, like increasing the stigma associated with disability and the discrimination against people living with disabilities.</p>
<h2>Perceptions of risk</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pd.5841">recent study</a> found rich NIPT discussions taking place on the social media platform Reddit. Comments from Redditors (Reddit users) were mostly in favour of increased access to NIPT, despite expressing some concerns about the test’s accuracy. Redditors were eager to share their perspectives, knowledge and experiences. </p>
<p>Interestingly, one-third of the discussions touched on interpreting perceptions of risk. NIPT results indicate either low or high risk, with results often expressed as a ratio or percentage. Redditors were trying to make sense of acceptable risk in pregnancy, and whether others shared similar feelings. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pregnant woman wearing white, reclining on a bed while using a laptop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449709/original/file-20220303-15-1sfbva7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Reddit community adds another level of risk subjectivity to NIPT discussions, by offering anecdotes and interpretations that may not be grounded in statistical evidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Notably, there was no discernable consensus around what results constitute high or low risk. What was low for some was high for others. And even the way results were presented (for example, percentages versus ratios) changed how they felt about them. </p>
<p>One person, for example, reported an NIPT result of 1:22, to which another responded, “Maybe it will help you to think in percentages; there is ‘only’ a 4.55 per cent risk. A lot higher than normal, but somehow the risk seems lower this way.” The initial poster responded, “Thanks! That’s a much better number to focus on.”</p>
<p>For Redditors confused about the strength or reliability of the numbers, there was much to discuss. Some focused on the test’s ability to screen (determine probability) but not diagnose (confirm with certainty), and many raised highly technical statistical considerations about statistical expressions of risk like “sensitivity versus specificity” and “positive predictive values.” </p>
<p>Others expressed concerns and confusion regarding what classified some pregnancies as “high risk” and why such classification differs across health-care systems.</p>
<p>Some were dismayed, even appalled, at how medical professionals disclosed results. They sensed that health-care workers assumed that patients with a positive result indicating a high-risk pregnancy would want additional testing, or would be planning for termination. </p>
<p>For some Redditors who received a positive result of a high-risk pregnancy, the possibility of a false positive became something to lean on. Stories were shared. “I’ve done a lot of reading and false positives are super common,” wrote one Redditor, which is inaccurate for trisomies 13, 18 and 21, but can be true regarding rarer conditions like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/01/upshot/pregnancy-birth-genetic-testing.html">DiGeorge Syndrome</a>.</p>
<h2>Online anecdotes and interpretations</h2>
<p>The Reddit community adds another level of risk subjectivity, by offering anecdotes and interpretations that may not be grounded in statistical evidence. A <a href="https://cjb-rcb.ca/index.php/cjb-rcb/article/view/141">powerful story</a> can have huge sway. </p>
<p>One highly detailed false-negative anecdote rippled through discussions, to which another Redditor bluntly replied, “The chance of a false negative is very very low,”, which, again, is an accurate statement when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejogrb.2020.10.050">testing for trisomies 13, 18 and 21</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women standing in a kitchen looking at a small image, one is pregnant with her hand on her belly, the other has one the pregnant woman's belly and her other arm around her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449642/original/file-20220302-13-qe0abi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian decision-makers are now asking whether NIPT should be publicly funded and offered to all pregnant persons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the general public struggles with interpreting NIPT results and determining what should be considered serious, the situation is similar for health professionals and policy experts. Policies governing genomic technologies are partly determined by the threshold of what is considered <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ajmg.10212">a serious condition</a>. Yet “serious” is incredibly difficult to <a href="https://www.bionews.org.uk/page_160504?fbclid=IwAR17gw-U9ZZacx0B_PABuGsNeOyziWfvUXQFPw9WfiBZzFQK_TUpx27dnjo">define and interpret in different contexts</a>.</p>
<p>Importantly, the value and meaning given to NIPT emerges collectively. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/the-last-children-of-down-syndrome/616928/">As observed in Denmark</a>, widespread access to prenatal genetic testing can blur lines between public and private choices, inflaming debates around core social values.</p>
<p>What should be done with an emerging technology like NIPT, that many want and that many will use? Individuals may approach the test with different expectations, perspectives, knowledge or preferences. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-018-2153-y%22%22">Research shows</a> not everyone will use or reject NIPT for similar reasons. </p>
<p>Health-care systems will need to think about how NIPT can be delivered for diverse populations in a way that incorporates individual perspectives. As our study shows, social media plays a role in shaping these perspectives. It’s important to think about how best to use complex online spaces to communicate accurate and accessible information that supports people in making decisions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176624/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alessandro Marcon works at the University of Alberta's Health Law Institute, which has received funding related to this project from Genome Canada, Genome Alberta, and CIHR. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vardit Ravitsky receives funding from Genome Canada, CIHR, FRQ.</span></em></p>Non-invasive prenatal testing can assess risk for genetic anomalies in a fetus. But interpreting risk levels is highly personal, as a study on Reddit discussions shows.Alessandro Marcon, Senior Research Associate at the University of Alberta's Health Law Institute, University of AlbertaVardit Ravitsky, Professor, Bioethics, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1723622021-12-01T13:31:41Z2021-12-01T13:31:41ZAaron Rodgers dropped the ball on critical thinking – with a little practice you can do better<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434749/original/file-20211130-27-1si37tj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=997%2C449%2C4994%2C3538&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">However Rodgers came to his decision to remain unvaccinated, he did not follow the tenets of critical thinking.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aaron-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-looks-on-during-news-photo/1356221041">Patrick McDermott/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was hard to miss the news about Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19 on Nov. 3. Like the <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status">vast majority of people</a> currently catching – and dying from – the coronavirus, he was unvaccinated.</p>
<p>A few days after his diagnosis, <a href="https://youtu.be/Y3JU_oAEinQ">Rodgers took to the airwaves</a> to offer a smorgasbord of <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-covid-pat-mcafee-show-target-woke-mob/1caksb1mfhcrj1dgikrkvttu90">pandemic misinformation and conspiracy theories</a> in defense of his decision to skip the COVID-19 vaccine. </p>
<p>Having listened to many an interview with Rodgers, I found it totally predictable that he began his comments by asserting, “I’m not, you know, some sort of anti-vax, flat-earther.” </p>
<p>But as someone who does research on how people think and decide, it’s what Rodgers said next that caused me to lean in: “I am somebody who’s a critical thinker.” </p>
<p>Critical thinker? The fact is, research on the link between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13833">critical thinking ability and behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic</a> suggests that Rodgers is the opposite.</p>
<p>For scientists <a href="https://twitter.com/DecisionLab">like me</a> whose job it is to unravel how people instinctively make choices, and then to help them make better ones, critical thinking isn’t just a slogan used to score points. It’s not some after-the-fact justification someone makes to convince others – or themselves – that their opinions or behaviors are sound.</p>
<p>Instead, critical thinking is a pattern of behaviors that happen before someone makes a judgment, like coming to the conclusion that something is risky. Likewise, critical thinking comes before making a decision, like choosing to avoid something judged to be too risky for comfort.</p>
<p>Here’s what it really takes to be a critical thinker.</p>
<h2>Three ingredients for critical thinking</h2>
<p>Critical thinking as a precursor to sound judgments and decisions involves three related elements that are accessible to almost anyone. </p>
<p>First, critical thinking means being able to recognize that there are situations where you must <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html">balance your instinctive reactions</a> to what’s going on around you, based on emotions like fear and desire, with the need for a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2020.37">heavier psychological lift</a>. In these cases, it’s crucial to take note of conflicting objectives and make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2019.1569107">difficult trade-offs</a>.</p>
<p>Take the pandemic, which, thanks to the arrival of new variants like omicron, has gone into overtime. You may have a strong desire to live your “normal” life as you knew it before COVID-19 started to spread; at the same time, you probably want to keep those around you safe and secure. Knowing where to draw the line between personal comfort and the well-being of those around you means putting your emotions to the side and diving into data so you can better understand the broader consequences of your intended actions.</p>
<p>Second, critical thinking means following some <a href="https://sjdm.org/dmidi/Actively_Open-Minded_Thinking_Beliefs.html">basic principles</a> when you search for and use information. You must be open to and consider more than one solution to a problem, without ignoring or dismissing evidence that goes against your initial beliefs. And you must be willing to change your mind and your behavior in response to new information or insights.</p>
<p>Last, critical thinking means recognizing when you are out of your depth and then looking to legitimate experts for help. In other words, critical thinkers understand when it’s time <a href="http://www.sjdm.org/presentations/2019-Poster-Baron-Jonathan-endorse-AOT-cues.pdf">to outsource critical thinking</a> to others. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers confers with a coach on the sidelines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434750/original/file-20211130-13-1xdrnl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Consulting those with additional expertise can be an important part of critical thinking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/green-bay-packers-head-coach-matt-lafleur-talks-to-news-photo/1190913564">Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this raises an important question: How do you figure out who is an actual expert? Critical thinkers answer this question by not just looking at someone’s stature or credentials. They also assess potential experts’ behaviors with respect to the first two elements of critical thinking. How good is the expert at balancing instinct with the need for more in-depth analysis? And does the expert follow the basic principles that should govern the search for and use of information?</p>
<h2>Everyone loses when critical thinking is sidelined</h2>
<p>Consider the results of a recent study conducted during what scientists around the world agree is a serious public health crisis. In it, my colleagues and I found that people in the U.S. who score high on a scale used to measure critical thinking ability <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13833">judge COVID-19 to pose a real and significant risk</a> to public health. They also placed greater trust in legitimate public health experts, and – importantly – behaved in a manner that is more consistent with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html">pandemic risk management strategies</a> recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p>
<p>Judging by his behavior and statements, Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t have belonged in this group. Indeed, Rodgers’ own comments suggest he fumbled his way through the three elements of critical thinking. </p>
<p>In spite of his claim that his decision to remain unvaccinated involved “a lot of time, energy and research,” it seems he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/kidspost/aaron-rodgers-played-scientist-when-he-should-have-stuck-to-playing-football/2021/11/10/3d3b1b48-36b4-11ec-9bc4-86107e7b0ab1_story.html">neither understood nor weighed the trade-off</a> between the exceedingly slim chance of becoming sick from one of the available vaccines versus the much higher probability of becoming sick – or making others sick – from COVID-19. </p>
<p>And historically, Rodgers hasn’t been shy about <a href="https://torontosun.com/sports/football/nfl/aaron-rodgers-wont-let-woke-cancel-culture-stop-him-from-expressing-himself">dismissing viewpoints</a> that run counter to his own. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/the-selfish-individualism-of-aaron-rodgers">Boasting about his COVID-19 infection</a>, Rodgers confessed as much when he said, “I march to the beat of my own drum.” </p>
<p>Finally his success rate when it comes to handing off critical thinking to others is lousy. On COVID-19, he follows the advice of pseudo-experts like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/business/joe-rogan-covid-19.html">Joe Rogan</a> over that of <a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/open-letter-american-public-covid-19-vaccines">actual medical experts</a> and has chosen to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-rodgers-packers-covid-vaccine-ivermectin-woke-mob/">subject himself</a> to a demonstrably dangerous drug, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-should-not-use-ivermectin-treat-or-prevent-covid-19">ivermectin</a>, instead of a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html">safe and effective vaccine</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers on the ground post-fumble with football out of reach" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434751/original/file-20211130-21-1bao6a1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rodgers fumbled on critical thinking when he overvalued advice from people who don’t have deep knowledge on coronavirus prevention and treatment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kony-ealy-of-the-carolina-panthers-forces-a-fumble-as-he-news-photo/496327324">Grant Halverson/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is far from alone when it comes to poor critical thinking. And, making matters worse, the implications of uncritical thinking extend well beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Indeed, the poster child for an absence of critical thinking is the political divide in the U.S. From Main Street America to the U.S. Capitol, I’d argue that nothing says my-way-or-the-highway like the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-report-offers-insights-into-tribalism-in-the-age-of-trump">inflexible tribalism</a> that has infected important policy issues ranging from <a href="http://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/syndicated/fear-racism-public-manipulated-politics-tribalism/">inequality</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/15/the-climate-change-movement-must-overcome-political-tribalism">climate change</a> to <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2019/09/14/david-burns-why-is-gun/">guns</a> and <a href="https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/health-care-reform-in-the-age-of-partisan-deadlock-and-tribal-politics/">health care</a>. Balancing fast-acting emotion with the slow burn of analysis, a willingness to change your mind and compromise, and the courage to admit you are not an expert – and to trust those who are – seem as far away in politics today <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/1968-and-2020-lessons-from-americas-worst-year-so-far/612415/">as they have been in decades</a>.</p>
<h2>Training camp for critical thinking</h2>
<p>On the bright side, and with a little practice, people can learn to think critically. Unlike other tasks that require highly specialized skills – like playing the position of quarterback in the NFL – critical thinking is well within the reach of nearly anyone willing to put in the reps.</p>
<p>Studies show, for example, that critical thinking can be activated in the moment just before certain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2018.1548379">judgments</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101964">choices</a> need to be made. Researchers also know that the <a href="https://sjdm.org/dmidi/Actively_Open-Minded_Thinking_Beliefs.html">basic principles</a> of critical thinking <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1464-0597.1993.tb00731.x">can be taught</a>, even to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/109019819101800302">young children and adolescents</a>. And, for complicated judgments and choices, people can take advantage of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es4036286">decision-support tools</a> that help them clarify their objectives, consider relevant information, evaluate a wide range of options and understand the compromises that come with choosing one possibility over another.</p>
<p>Deploying the skills of critical thinking ultimately requires one more important ingredient, though, and this one can’t easily be taught: courage. It takes courage to break from your closely held opinions and, especially, from the relative sanctuary offered by your social or political circle. And it takes courage to publicly change your mind and your behavior.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rodgers initiates a pass with an opposing player coming at him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434753/original/file-20211130-19-1t7l30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It takes courage to be a critical thinker, especially when you might take a hit for it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aaron-rodgers-of-the-green-bay-packers-throws-a-pass-while-news-photo/1293522412">Dylan Buell/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But here too there’s a bright side. Changing your mind and behavior because you thought critically about something doesn’t mean that your earlier opinions and behaviors were a mistake. On the contrary, it’s a public display that you learned something important and new. And that, at least as much as success on the <a href="https://www.wiscnews.com/sports/football/professional/frozen-tundra-the-5-coldest-games-in-green-bay-packers-history/collection_17677ba1-d47b-565a-9fb1-bb89327ba36e.html">frozen tundra</a> of Rodgers’ home field in Green Bay, is worthy of respect and admiration.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172362/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Árvai has received funding from The National Science Foundation, NASA, and NOAA. In addition to his work at the University of Southern California, he serves as a member of the U.S. EPA’s Science Advisory Board, and as an advisor to a broad range of government agencies, businesses and NGOs.</span></em></p>Critical thinking means seeking out new information – especially facts that might run contrary to what you believe – and being willing to change your mind. And it’s a teachable skill.Joe Árvai, Dana and David Dornsife Professor of Psychology and Director of the Wrigley Institute for Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1718982021-11-23T13:29:43Z2021-11-23T13:29:43ZA new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432916/original/file-20211119-15-949yl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C0%2C5317%2C3473&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"> A cabin is illuminated by firetruck lights as the Caldor Fire burns near Lake Tahoe in California on Aug. 31, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lake-tahoe-ca-august-31-2021-a-cabin-is-illuminated-by-fire-news-photo/1234991812">Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As climate change fuels <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/">large-scale natural disasters</a>, the real estate mantra of “location, location, location” is taking on new meaning. In 2021, homeowners have contended with threats including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather/texas-deep-freeze-leaves-millions-without-power-21-dead-idUSKBN2AG257">paralyzing cold on the Great Plains</a>, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-30/photos-evacuation-order-south-lake-tahoe-caldor-fire">wildfire evacuations in the West</a> and flooding from the <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/weather_traffic/article_1f46ecc6-b800-11eb-827e-8b1465c85bce.html">South</a> to <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/idas-remnants-deluge-york-jersey-flooding-rain-tornadoes/story?id=79780365">New York City and New England</a>.</p>
<p>Buying a house is complicated enough in a market that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/magazine/real-estate-pandemic.html">has become supercharged</a> in many U.S. cities. Emerging climate change risks will further complicate those decisions. Investors will be less likely to regret their decisions if they do due diligence in researching local climate risks. Mortgage lenders will face less risk of borrowers defaulting, and <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/08/how-the-insurance-industry-can-push-us-to-prepare-for-climate-change">insurers will face fewer losses</a>, if they factor climate risks into decisions on loans and insurance policies.</p>
<p>I study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lfkXE9kAAAAJ&hl=en">environmental economics</a>, and in my recent book, “<a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300246711/adapting-climate-change">Adapting to Climate Change: Markets and the Management of an Uncertain Future</a>”, I explore how the rise of Big Data will help people, firms and local governments make better decisions in the face of climate risks. I see the emergence of a climate risk analysis industry for real estate as a promising development, but believe the federal government should set standards to ensure that it provides reliable, accurate information.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F_pKB_C1NdQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change is increasingly affecting home values across the U.S. Not everyone can afford to live in risky areas.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Prices send climate signals, but not everyone listens</h2>
<p>Home prices reflect implicit judgments about whether properties are good investments – including the house and the area around it. For example, the current <a href="https://www.zillow.com/ca/home-values/">median home value in California</a> is nearly US$720,000 – more than twice the <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price">national median</a>. This difference reflects a judgment that California offers a desirable climate, lifestyle and job opportunities. </p>
<p>People who buy property in California are betting that the state will continue to be a great place to live in the future. If climate change devastates large portions of it, buyers could regret their investment.</p>
<p>Recent research studying U.S real estate shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.03.013">flood risk</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.07.005">fire risk</a> are reflected in current housing prices. Properties that are perceived to be riskier sell for a lower price – but it’s not clear whether these climate price discounts fully compensate buyers for the risks they are exposed to. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1315659758540652544"}"></div></p>
<p>Concern about emerging climate risks varies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1208995">due partly to the partisan divide</a>. It’s fair to assume that some buyers will be eager to purchase homes in locations that others view as too risky. When people disagree about the probability of a bad outcome, the more optimistic bidder is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2017.11.002">more likely to purchase the asset</a>.</p>
<p>Climate change is making extreme weather events, such as tropical storms and flooding, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">more frequent and intense</a> in many places. Will people’s risk perceptions shift along with these changes? Studies show that many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab122">people underestimate climate risks to housing</a>. </p>
<p>As Nobel laureate economist <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2001/akerlof/facts/">George Akerlof</a> has shown, asymmetric information in markets – when sellers know more about a product than buyers – can impede trade. Buyers rightly fear getting stuck with a “lemon,” whether it’s a used car or a house that floods with every big storm. </p>
<p>In the auto market, rating systems like <a href="https://www.carfax.com/">Carfax</a> help level the playing field; in the real estate industry, climate concerns are creating an opportunity for a nascent industry of climate risk screening modelers offering similar service for homebuyers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of weather and climate disasters in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432918/original/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During the first nine months of 2021, there were 18 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events across the U.S. that caused $104.8 billion in damages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Like Standard & Poor’s but for climate risk</h2>
<p>Just as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s rate private companies’ creditworthiness to help inform investor decisions, a growing set of firms seek to assess spatially refined climate risks, ranging from flooding to extreme heat and wildfire risk. These companies include <a href="https://climatecheck.com/">Climate Check</a>, <a href="https://firststreet.org/">First Street Foundation</a>, <a href="https://jupiterintel.com/">Jupiter Intelligence</a>, <a href="https://esg.moodys.io/climate-solutions">Moody’s ESG Solutions Group</a> and <a href="https://www.rms.com/">RMS</a>. </p>
<p>Climate risk raters use recent natural disasters to compare the geography of recent flood events to what their model predicts. Typically, they combine peer-reviewed research in climatology and hydrology with a climate change model to generate risks maps. First Street Foundation has posted <a href="https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/flood-model-methodology_overview/">a step-by-step overview</a> of its modeling approach.</p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Like any emerging industry, spatially refined climate prediction has grown unevenly. Some models are scientifically sound and highly precise, while others are lower quality. In a normal market, consumers would select the winning products through market competition – but for climate risk forecasts, it may take years to assess which offerings are most reliable. </p>
<p>I believe the federal government should play a role in screening the new generation of climate risk products. Regulators could work with the National Science Foundation to create a jury of experts to evaluate the new products. </p>
<p>One way to quality-check these offerings would be to foster a competition in which teams post forecasts about the likely locations of disasters in 2022, and then are ranked early in 2023 based on how well they predicted actual outcomes. This kind of annual review could nudge participants to upgrade their models regularly. One potential example is <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/c/AlgorithmicTradingChallenge">algorithmic trading competitions in financial markets</a>, in which contestants develop new models to accurately predict how the stock market will respond to large trades.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man stands next to foundation wall with large crack." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432919/original/file-20211119-19-tth6xv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sahadeo Bhagwandin shows the buckled foundation of his home in the Queens borough of New York City after it was surrounded by flood waters during Hurricane Ida, Sept. 17, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TropicalStormsFloodInsurance/0f14b70a65ae49219743e17cd44606d7/photo">AP Photo/Bobby Caina Calvan</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Saving lives and protecting assets</h2>
<p>Climate risk assessment firms could help make the U.S. real estate sector more resilient by helping homebuyers become more sophisticated and realistic property shoppers. Lending patterns will shift as banks offer borrowers less-generous terms for riskier properties. This incentive should nudge people to bid more for relatively safer properties and to seek to live in less risky areas. </p>
<p>Such shifts in turn could nudge changes in local land use and zoning laws to <a href="https://urban-regeneration.worldbank.org/node/21">upzone</a> – allow higher-value or denser uses – in <a href="https://archive.curbed.com/2020/1/30/21115351/upzoning-definition-affordable-housing-gentrification">relatively safer areas</a>. Building more homes in less risky areas would make climate adaptation more affordable.</p>
<p>Climate change confronts people with fundamental uncertainty. I see developing the skills and infrastructure to better predict local climate risks as a useful strategy for adapting to climate risks. If forecasters can develop trusted predictive models, people will face less future regret about their real estate investments and less risk in their daily lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew E. Kahn gave a March 2021 Keynote Address at a Conference hosted by RMS. He was paid less than $5,000 for this talk.
Kahn has an academic research partnership with First Street Foundation that allows him to use their data in his peer reviewed academic research. He is not paid for this research. </span></em></p>Private companies rate all kinds of investments, from stocks to used cars. Now, they’re starting to analyze climate risks to local real estate – but how reliable are their findings?Matthew E. Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1659172021-08-12T12:27:31Z2021-08-12T12:27:31ZEmotion is a big part of how you assess risk – and why it’s so hard to be objective about pandemic precautions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415747/original/file-20210811-25-2qub9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C17%2C2613%2C1886&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It can be hard to see eye to eye when people don't see risk the same way.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/maskless-supporter-of-sean-feucht-argues-with-a-protester-news-photo/1230366959">Ringo Chiu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People tend to overestimate or underestimate risk. The pandemic brings this into stark relief. Picture someone wearing an N95 mask while walking their dog through a deserted park. Contrast that with someone entering a crowded bar maskless in an area with high coronavirus transmission rates.</p>
<p>Risk is a function of logical and physical factors, both qualitative and quantitative. A computer could combine them all into a measure that captures the likelihood, benefits and cost of an event occurring. </p>
<p>But people are prone to assess risk emotionally. This tendency explains why many view flying as riskier than driving, even though <a href="https://traveltips.usatoday.com/air-travel-safer-car-travel-1581.html">the reverse is true</a>.</p>
<p>What people often confuse with risk is <a href="https://www.fairinstitute.org/blog/control-deficiencies-are-not-risks">lack of control</a>. That’s one reason many have concerns about <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/dangers-driverless-cars">self-driving vehicles</a>, where <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/16/1014672/building-a-self-driving-car-that-people-can-trust/">artificial intelligence algorithms</a> control the steering and braking.</p>
<p>People accept risks when they favorably <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cost-benefitanalysis.asp">weigh the perceived or potential benefits against the associated costs</a>. That trade-off explains why people gamble on casino games and lotteries, even though their <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/financial-services-and-commerce/lottery-payouts-and-state-revenue-2010.aspx">expected return is negative</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZLTSUtsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As a data scientist</a> with expertise in data-driven decision-making under uncertainty, I’ve been watching how people react to coronavirus risks since the beginning of the pandemic. Choosing to be vaccinated, for instance, involves numerous factors – personal and public – that must be weighed to inform decisions. For some, this decision is obvious. For others, it is shrouded in fog. </p>
<p>At the heart of all such decisions is how you as an individual assess risk and make decisions based on your assessments. What are the different perspectives that lead to different ways to assess risk? Building bridges between such perspectives is crucial to reach a healthy societal compromise.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two masked people hold homemade sign that reads 'Respect the virus, it kills'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415748/original/file-20210811-27-1k7u77m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When making decisions, one part of the population focuses on the threat from the coronavirus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/anti-protestors-rena-demeo-left-and-gail-simms-argue-with-news-photo/1214038309">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One pandemic, different perspectives</h2>
<p>There are two general COVID-19 perspectives; let’s call them receptive and skeptical. A wide schism of risk beliefs about the virus and the vaccines separate these two groups.</p>
<p>As a whole, the receptive faction views the pandemic scientifically. In general, they are emotionally charged when considering its impact and the path forward, viewing it as a major public health crisis. They know that many lives have been lost in the U.S., and support the societal responses taken so far – actions like stay-at-home orders, school closings and indoor dining shutdowns. They view the delta variant as the most recent emerging threat. They accept the value of wearing face coverings in public and feel everyone should be vaccinated.</p>
<p>In contrast, the skeptical faction generally views the virus to be on the same level of concern as seasonal influenza or the common cold. They recognize that many have died, but believe that these people likely already had other health problems, so the virus just hastened their demise. They question the benefits of the societal responses taken so far. Many believe a previous infection will protect them against the delta variant and that face coverings are ineffective for stopping the spread of the virus. They are wary of the vaccines – except possibly for people who really need it, like the elderly – preferring natural immunity as their best defense.</p>
<p>Both perceptions contain a mix of valid observations, flawed beliefs and misinformation.</p>
<p>The receptive perception reflects an aversion to risk. Those in this group overestimate the risk of the virus at the personal level. As such, they treat worst-case scenarios as expected outcomes. For this group, the benefits of responses outweigh their costs.</p>
<p>The skeptical perception reflects a high tolerance for risk. Their actions suggest that they underestimate the risk of the virus at the population level. As such, they treat best-case scenarios as expected outcomes. This group believes that the benefits of responses in the past did not warrant their costs.</p>
<h2>Finding a risk compromise</h2>
<p>The middle ground is where the truth lies, and risk can be assessed. So what is this fact-based middle ground?</p>
<ul>
<li><p>To date, over <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases">615,000 people have died in the U.S.</a>, with <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics">95% of them over 50 years old</a>. This vulnerability helps explain why those in <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total">older age groups have been most receptive to vaccination</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/covid19-research/evaluating-effectiveness-facial-coverings-and-masks">Face coverings</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252963">social distancing</a> have been effective in reducing virus transmission. Anecdotally, if they were not, other <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/03/30/981303287/should-masking-last-beyond-the-pandemic-flu-and-colds-are-down-spurring-a-debate">infectious diseases like influenza and the common cold</a> would not have virtually disappeared over the past year.</p></li>
<li><p>Every person infected presents a new opportunity for the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6">virus to mutate</a>. This is how the delta variant came about.</p></li>
<li><p>The vaccines available have provided the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-breakthrough-infection-6-questions-answered-about-catching-covid-19-after-vaccination-164909">most reliable way to prevent hospitalizations and deaths</a> from the virus.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>With so many factors contributing to the vaccine benefits and costs nexus, informed decision-making requires risk assessment that at best is challenging and at worst is simply overwhelming. This pushes people to simplify their decision process down to a single factor, effectively narrowing their risk assessment.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="man with child holds homemade signs that read 'pandemic is a fraud' and 'government is criminal'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415749/original/file-20210811-21-lybfel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Another part of the population perceives public health guidelines as government overstepping.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-president-donald-trump-and-their-children-news-photo/1213387624">David McNew/Getty Images News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The field of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/decision-analysis.asp">decision analysis</a> was created to inform such complex processes. It provides a set of tools to systematically balance multiple criteria when making a decision.</p>
<p>Even with all the data available, both receptive and skeptical factions base their assessment of risk on emotion. Receptive people are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intimp.2021.107724">fearful of the virus’s impact</a> on themselves and the population, and are willing to accept interventions recommended by public health officials to ameliorate any such outcomes. The end result are behaviors that help reduce, but not stop, the spread of the virus.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20226-9">Skeptical people are distrustful</a> of interventions espoused by government agencies like the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-profile-of-the-unvaccinated/">believing they are unnecessary</a> and threaten livelihoods, personal well-being and personal choice. The end result are behaviors that do not help reduce the spread of the virus, since they believe the need to stop it is exaggerated.</p>
<p>People with receptive and skeptical perceptions of the virus have not been able to find much common ground. The same conflicts exist around solutions to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/?sh=9ff669912d6a">climate change</a> and other political policies in the U.S. related to things like <a href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/309cc8e1-b971-45c6-ab52-29ffb1da9bf5/jec-fact-sheet---the-economy-under-democratic-vs.-republican-presidents-june-2016.pdf">economic growth</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents">job creation</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Overcoming philosophical divides requires each faction to <a href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/309cc8e1-b971-45c6-ab52-29ffb1da9bf5/jec-fact-sheet---the-economy-under-democratic-vs.-republican-presidents-june-2016.pdf">feel safe in its position and be provided with the opportunity to be heard</a>. Using <a href="https://phys.org/news/2017-12-facts-consensus-bridges-conservative-liberal-climate.html">data and facts to build consensus</a> can be effective. With multiple criteria weighted differently by each faction, everyone can be a decision analyst to help reach common ground for compromise. </p>
<p>Steps like these would help bridge the coronavirus-response divide – and possibly even help end the social chaos that erupted in response to the pandemic. It’s hard to imagine enough Americans setting aside the emotion at this point, though, to dispassionately calculate costs and benefits around vaccination, masking and all the other public health interventions.</p>
<p>There is a path forward – the key to ending the pandemic is getting both factions to walk it together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sheldon H. Jacobson receives funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, "Optimal Real-time Decision-making in an Uncertain World,” FA9550-19-1-0106.</span></em></p>How you respond to a risk depends on how you weigh the costs and benefits of an action. The problem is you’re not just a logical computer, and emotions bias your interpretation of the facts.Sheldon H. Jacobson, Professor of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1628272021-06-17T12:27:13Z2021-06-17T12:27:13ZWhat’s a 100-year flood? A hydrologist explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406567/original/file-20210615-23-eeazix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A '100-year flood' doesn't mean you'll be flood-free for the next 99 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flooded-homes-are-shown-near-lake-houston-following-news-photo/841052402">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A 100-year flood, like a 100-year storm, is one so severe it has only a 1% chance of hitting in any given year.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, many people believe that if they experienced a 100-year flood this year, they will not see another one like it for 99 years.</p>
<p>It just doesn’t work that way. In reality, the chance of being flooded next year, and the year after that, is the same as it was when the house flooded the first time – 1%.</p>
<p>One percent is the same as a 1-in-100 chance. Hence, the shorthand: 100-year flood. The Federal Emergency Management Agency uses that measure <a href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home">when it draws</a> <a href="https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html">flood plain maps</a> – the maps that show which areas are most likely to be flooded and that insurers use when they set rates.</p>
<p>Because of the confusion, many flood plain managers want to do away with the term “100-year flood,” but that creates another problem. People generally <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-lifes-risks-more-rationally-94366">do not have a good sense of risk as expressed as a probability</a>, especially when that probability appears small. Look no farther than COVID-19, where <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/ps_2020-12-03_covid19-vaccine-intent_00-08/">about half the U.S. population was not concerned</a> about a 1% chance of dying from infection while hundreds of people in the country were dying from it every day. </p>
<h2>Why knowing flood risk matters</h2>
<p>A better way to understand the risk is to think about a home with a 30-year mortgage.</p>
<p>What’s the minimum risk of a home being flooded over 30 years if it’s in a 100-year flood plain? At least 26%, since we’re looking over a longer period and there’s not a guarantee of seeing a 100-year storm. Given that homes tend to be the biggest investment most Americans make, that probability may cause people to think about buying flood insurance.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>In some cases, the risks are even higher. Since some homes sit lower than their neighbors, risk in a 100-year flood plain isn’t consistent across the entire area. A homebuyer might consider their choice more carefully if the property actually has a 50% chance of flooding over 30 years. At some point, we’ll have better tools to easily assign risk home by home.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EACkiMRT0pc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Figuring out where the flood plain lines ares.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are there so many 100-year floods now?</h2>
<p>With climate change, the flood risk can grow over time with <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">stronger storms and heavier rainfall</a>.</p>
<p>For example, an <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-updates-texas-rainfall-frequency-values">update of rainfall statistics</a> for the Austin, Texas, area led an <a href="https://www.statesman.com/news/20191114/austin-city-council-approves-code-change-to-expand-100-year-floodplain">expansion of the 100-year</a> flood plain to cover more of what had been considered 500-year flood plain. A 500-year flood plain suggests a 0.2% chance of flooding, meaning thousands of people faced far greater risk than they realized.</p>
<p>Flood plain statistics can be confusing, and that confusion can be deadly. Developing better tools to estimate flood risk and finding better ways to talk about that risk can better inform people of the actual risks.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation U.S. publishes short, accessible explanations of newsworthy subjects by academics in their areas of expertise.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Mace received funding from FEMA when he previously worked for the State of Texas. </span></em></p>Flood plain statistics can be confusing. There are better ways to think about the risk of severe weather than 100-year storm or flood.Robert Mace, Executive Director of the Meadows Center for Water and Environment, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1619952021-06-03T05:01:54Z2021-06-03T05:01:54ZWhakaari tragedy: court case highlights just how complex it is to forecast a volcanic eruption<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404150/original/file-20210603-17-144hi8x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C106%2C5406%2C3448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Walter/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While today’s <a href="https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/todays-pre-trial-hearing-13-whakaari-white-island-disaster-defendants-concludes">pre-trial hearing</a> over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-white-island-erupted-and-why-there-was-no-warning-128550">Whakaari White Island tragedy</a> revealed most of the 13 parties charged have yet to enter pleas, there is no disputing the basic facts.</p>
<p>The December 9 2019 eruption struck when 47 people were on the small island; 22 people died and survivors were left with severe or critical injuries.</p>
<p>But what will really be on trial when proceedings resume, most likely in September? Ultimately, it comes down to how the individuals present on the day perceived the natural hazard and risk, and especially its uncertainty. </p>
<p>This understanding rests on processes we have in place to communicate and manage risk for workers and tourists exposed to unpredictable natural environments. It is really these processes that should be on trial.</p>
<p>Scientists are at the frontline of understanding volcanic nature. They use physical, chemical and geological methods to delve into volcanic systems. </p>
<p>This knowledge is the first step in a long chain: feeding models of volcanic processes, which are used to produce hazard forecasts that, finally, are converted to hazard maps and public warnings. But each step has its uncertainties, and no scientist is certain of the future — only the odds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-should-welcome-charges-against-agency-over-whakaari-white-island-if-it-helps-improve-early-warning-systems-151174">Scientists should welcome charges against agency over Whakaari/White Island — if it helps improve early warning systems</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Monitoring volcanic hazard</h2>
<p>To monitor a volcano like Whakaari, we cannot look directly below the eruption vent. Instead, we interpret internal processes indirectly, using seismic sensors, gas output, heat flow and satellite measurements — and then work out what the data mean. There isn’t always a straight answer. </p>
<p>For instance, if gas and heat output drop, it might mean the system is cooling or magma has waned. Or, it could be that a clay or liquid sulphur seal has formed, trapping gas and heat. The difference in risk and consequence is obviously huge. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of Whakaari White Island" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404151/original/file-20210603-13-jcwzx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whakaari White Island has a network of instruments that measure seismic waves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Walter/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We rely heavily on seismic data (ground vibrations mostly too small for people to feel) collected by <a href="https://www.geonet.org.nz/">GeoNet</a> in real time. But the volcanic system is “noisy” thanks to ocean waves, wind or rain. Some seismic signals are distinct, such as the cracking of rock when magma rises, others are diffuse, such as fluids moving through voids. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-white-island-is-likely-to-erupt-violently-again-but-a-new-alert-system-could-give-hours-of-warning-and-save-lives-142656">New Zealand's White Island is likely to erupt violently again, but a new alert system could give hours of warning and save lives</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>We are constantly learning about new features of Whakaari’s volcanic system. The vent area changes after each eruption and is affected by deep and shallow processes, such as magma intrusion, a lake over the crater or landslide debris. </p>
<p>Magma rises in unusual ways, sometimes abruptly, but mainly slowly at Whakaari. It often just stalls well below the crater, slowly crystallising and degassing in place. </p>
<p>Communicating monitoring information to forecast hazard and risk requires a degree of simplification. It is generally impossible to say in black and white whether people should go onto a volcano. Thresholds of acceptable risk need to be set, often with little quantitative guidance in terms of the probability of an eruption. </p>
<h2>What went wrong at Whakaari</h2>
<p>For those guides traversing the volcano every day, familiarity breeds a false impression of safety. Even with a full understanding of risks, after the novelty of the first few visits, fear dissipates and familiarity leads to an expectation that it will always be safe. </p>
<p>But risk is cumulative with exposure time. Feeling safer over time is the opposite of reality. How much of a factor was overconfidence of tourism operators who had visited Whakaari for decades without major incident? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People gathering for a memorial service one year after the eruption of Whakaari White Island." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404152/original/file-20210603-27-o6vh6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People gathering for a memorial service one year after the eruption of Whakaari White Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Walter/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Different people are involved in decision making in tourism activities, and they perceive hazard differently. For a visitor present for two hours, the risk is much lower due to their brief exposure, but how can the magnitude of risk be expressed to short-term visitors adequately? </p>
<p>Say there is a 0.1% chance of an eruption today: would you visit the volcano and take the 1 in 1,000 risk? But visit every day over a year, and that grows to a 1 in 3 chance. </p>
<p>A better approach is to distinguish days when it is safe (say, 1 in 10,000 risk) from those that are marked as “eruption possible” (1 in 50). These assessments are possible now, although they are plagued by data uncertainties, human biases and methodological arguments.</p>
<p>One focus during the trial will be risk messaging. Two weeks before the eruption, the Volcanic Alert Level was changed to 2 (level 3 means an eruption is occurring). The last communication before the event had contrasting messages: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The monitoring observations bear some similarities with those seen during the 2011-2016 period when Whakaari/White Island was more active and stronger volcanic activity occurred.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>While the [fountaining] activity is contained to the far side of the lake, the current level of activity does not pose a direct hazard to visitors. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This shows how difficult it is to address uncertainty in observation through to forecasting. With 20/20 hindsight it is easy to judge the outcome, even if it is grossly unfair to those doing their best at the time to provide expert judgement and balance. </p>
<p>An added factor is that Whakaari is privately owned and sits in an unusual administrative “grey” zone. It was unclear who would have a mandate to “close” the island. While <a href="https://www.gns.cri.nz/">GNS Science</a> provided warning information, it had no jurisdiction or control. </p>
<p>Contrast that with the Department of Conservation, which was quick to <a href="https://www.doc.govt.nz/news/media-releases/2020-media-releases/mount-ruapehu-increases-to-volcanic-alert-level-2/">restrict access at Mt Ruapehu</a> at the end of last year when GNS Science <a href="https://www.geonet.org.nz/vabs/2eRQvDWg31q0luE4H2McoY">raised its alert level to 2</a>.</p>
<p>This brings into question the role of the National Emergency Management Authority (<a href="https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/about/about-nema/">NEMA</a>), local authorities and indeed the owners of the island.</p>
<p>One of the most important considerations we must take forward from the tragedy is the cumulative nature of volcanic risk. The length of exposure time is critical. In basic risk calculations, using conservative figures and OECD accepted life-safety models, repeated visits to Whakaari by tour guides place them near unacceptable limits. </p>
<p>To get better at forecasting different levels of eruption risk requires advances in our basic science, as well as automated systems that can dispassionately judge risk and raise concerns. It also requires a more rigorous regime that ties warning systems to restrictions in access. </p>
<p>Even with this, the compounding uncertainties of how we measure and interpret this natural system mean it will never be completely safe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161995/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the lessons we must take from the Whakaari tragedy is the cumulative nature of risk. Repeated visits to the volcanic island by tour guides placed them near unacceptable risk limits.Shane Cronin, Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauDavid Dempsey, Senior lecturer, University of CanterburyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611712021-05-19T11:11:11Z2021-05-19T11:11:11Z4 ways to fix private health insurance so it can sustain a growing, ageing population<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401510/original/file-20210519-13-41h98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/NGxd0beBLps">Caley Vanular</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since 2015, the share of younger people (aged 20 to 39) with private health insurance has dropped from <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-private-health-insurance-statistics">24% to 22%</a>. </p>
<p>People in this age group contribute more in insurance premiums than they claim in pay-outs. So this decline ends up pushing prices up for the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-private-health-insurance-statistics">44% of Australians with private insurance</a>. </p>
<p>And new <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-private-health-insurance-statistics">private health insurance coverage data</a> shows this trend continuing.</p>
<p>Our latest <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/stopping-the-death-spiral/">Grattan report</a> outlines a four-step plan to stop this trajectory and fix the private health insurance system. The first step is preventing insurers increasing premiums if they cannot demonstrate the policy offers value for money. </p>
<h2>What’s the private health insurance ‘death spiral’?</h2>
<p>An ageing population, increased use of health services, and rising health-care costs are driving up the benefits insurers have to pay out each year. </p>
<p>As pay-outs increase, insurers raise premiums, to recoup these costs. </p>
<p>Rising premiums make health insurance less affordable and less attractive — particularly to younger and healthier people. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-stop-the-youth-exodus-from-private-health-insurance-cut-premiums-for-under-55s-128101">How do you stop the youth exodus from private health insurance? Cut premiums for under-55s</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As younger, healthier people drop their insurance, the insurance “risk pool” gets worse; people who hold insurance are older and more likely to use their benefits and use them to a greater value. </p>
<p>This increases the cost of premiums, younger people drop out, and the death spiral starts again.</p>
<h2>What does the data say?</h2>
<p>The chart shows the overall trends in private health insurance over the past six years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401500/original/file-20210519-13-bejg14.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over this time period, the number of people with private health insurance over 65 — who are likely to draw on their health insurance, receiving more in benefit pay-outs than they pay in premiums — has increased dramatically. </p>
<p>At the same time, the numbers in all other age groups is declining, albeit with a <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/quarterly-private-health-insurance-statistics">slight uptick in the September quarter of 2020</a>, possibly associated with people being allowed to defer premium payments during the COVID crisis. </p>
<p>The picture is particularly stark for 20 to 39-year-olds. People in this group make the pool of people insured less risky overall.</p>
<h2>So far, policy tweaks have failed</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.greghunt.com.au/major-reforms-to-make-private-health-insurance-simpler-and-more-affordable/">2017 the federal government announced</a> several rearrangements of private health insurance deckchairs to make the product more affordable or to encourage young people into insurance. </p>
<p>This included:</p>
<ul>
<li>simplified <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/private-health-insurance-reforms-gold-silver-bronze-basic-product-tiers-fact-sheet">gold/silver/bronze/basic</a> labelling of products</li>
<li>increasing excesses from A$500 to $750 for singles, and double that for families. Premiums are lower for people who accept higher excesses to reduce premiums</li>
<li>premium <a href="https://theconversation.com/youth-discounts-fail-to-keep-young-people-in-private-health-insurance-121803">discounts from 2% for 29-year-olds</a> to 10% for 18 to 25-year-olds.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/premiums-up-rebates-down-and-a-new-tiered-system-what-the-private-health-insurance-changes-mean-114086">Premiums up, rebates down, and a new tiered system – what the private health insurance changes mean</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But these initiatives have failed to entice young people into private health insurance.</p>
<h2>What are the solutions?</h2>
<p><a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/stopping-the-death-spiral/">Our report</a> proposes four key changes to:</p>
<p><strong>1. Address premium increases, which are currently too great and too frequent.</strong> </p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, private health insurance premiums have grown
faster than inflation, faster than health-specific inflation, and faster than wages. If people want to keep their same level of insurance, they have to fork out more and more.</p>
<p>Insurers that won’t or can’t offer their customers value for money should not be allowed to raise their premiums. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Serious man and woman sitting at kitchen table in front of open laptop computer, looking at screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401573/original/file-20210519-17-w5p8jh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Private health insurance premiums have been rising faster than inflation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/serious-man-woman-sitting-kitchen-table-588038042">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A new private health industry plan could reinforce the incentives for insurers to improve their claims ratios. This is the proportion of premium revenue returned to members in the form of benefits. </p>
<p>The health minister could also require funds to provide additional justification for a proposed increase if the proportion of their premiums returned to members is worse than the average claims ratio.</p>
<p><strong>2. Reduce private hospital costs.</strong></p>
<p>Unnecessarily long stays and examples of <a href="https://theconversation.com/hospitals-have-stopped-unnecessary-elective-surgeries-and-shouldnt-restart-them-after-the-pandemic-136259">low- or no-value care</a> are more common in private hospitals than in public ones. This drives up the cost of private hospital care.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hospitals-have-stopped-unnecessary-elective-surgeries-and-shouldnt-restart-them-after-the-pandemic-136259">Hospitals have stopped unnecessary elective surgeries – and shouldn't restart them after the pandemic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A new private health industry plan should create incentives for private hospitals to become more efficient. One way to do this would be for insurers to pay private hospitals in a similar way to how government funds public hospitals. This would mean insurers pay private hospitals for the patients they treat, not for how long patients stay in hospital or the other services hospitals provide.</p>
<p>Improving private hospital efficiency and reducing low- or no-value care could reduce premiums by 5%.</p>
<p><strong>3. Reduce out-of-pocket costs.</strong></p>
<p>Out-of-pocket costs on medical bills are often in the hundreds of dollars, and sometimes in the thousands. In 2019-20, the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stopping-the-Death-Spiral-Grattan-Report.pdf">average medical out-of-pocket cost</a> was $544, and the average hospital out-of-pocket cost was $411. </p>
<p>Out-of-pocket costs are a major source of people’s dissatisfaction with private health insurance, and astonishingly high billing by a minority of doctors is a major cause of these costs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/greedy-doctors-make-private-health-insurance-more-painful-heres-a-way-to-end-bill-shock-127227">Greedy doctors make private health insurance more painful – here's a way to end bill shock</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Comprehensive, public information on fees and costs would help. But even that is unlikely to significantly reduce the size and prevalence of out-of-pocket costs, because patients face an inherent power imbalance when dealing with doctors.</p>
<p>A new private health industry plan should include the structural reform required to reduce surprise out-of-pocket payments. This may come about through downward pressure on medical bills, or with more deals between doctors and insurers to bridge the gap.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401581/original/file-20210519-23-1ey3xyo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Patients face a power imbalance when dealing with doctors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-female-doctor-hands-typing-computer-1918929770">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4. Reduce the price private insurers pay for medical devices.</strong></p>
<p>Surgically implanted medical devices include hip and knee replacement devices, cardiac stents and pacemakers. Currently, medical device manufacturers and importers, and private hospitals charge more than twice as much for these as public hospitals, a nice gravy train which they lobbied health minister Greg Hunt to retain. </p>
<p>This year’s budget revealed <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/prosthesis-pricing-is-a-dead-parrot/">the minister backed down</a> on a plan to reduce the cost of health insurance premiums by <a href="https://consultations.health.gov.au/technology-assessment-access-division/prostheses-list-reform-options/">stopping medical device rorts</a>. The budget announced yet another process of investigation and analysis, rather than making the tough decisions to end the excess charging, which would allow cuts in private health insurance premiums. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-cut-private-health-insurance-costs-by-fixing-how-we-pay-for-hip-replacements-and-other-implants-121172">We can cut private health insurance costs by fixing how we pay for hip replacements and other implants</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161171/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website. Medibank is an affiliate partner of Grattan.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anika Stobart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A sustainable private health insurance system requires enough young, healthy people paying premiums and not making claims. But government policies haven’t achieved this. Here’s what to try instead.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteAnika Stobart, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1397102020-06-03T12:16:09Z2020-06-03T12:16:09ZGenetically modified mosquitoes could be released in Florida and Texas beginning this summer – silver bullet or jumping the gun?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338916/original/file-20200601-95032-uv3cee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C37%2C4078%2C2480&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In 2018 scientists of the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control tested a new way to suppress mosquito populations carrying the Zika virus. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dr-bill-petrie-director-of-miami-dade-county-mosquito-news-photo/916186362?adppopup=true">RHONA WISE/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This summer, for the first time, genetically modified mosquitoes could be released in the U.S. </p>
<p>On May 1, 2020, the company Oxitec received an <a href="https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USAEPAOPPT/bulletins/2896a76">experimental use permit</a> from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to release <a href="https://beta.regulations.gov/document/EPA-HQ-OPP-2019-0274-0353">millions of GM mosquitoes</a> (labeled by Oxitec as OX5034) every week over the next two years in Florida and Texas. Females of this mosquito species, <em>Aedes aegypti</em>, transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika viruses. When these lab-bred GM males are released and mate with wild females, their female offspring die. Continual, large-scale releases of these OX5034 GM males should eventually cause the temporary collapse of a wild population. </p>
<p>However, as vector biologists, geneticists, policy experts and bioethicists, we are concerned that current government oversight and scientific evaluation of GM mosquitoes do not ensure their responsible deployment. </p>
<h2>Genetic engineering for disease control</h2>
<p>Coral reefs that can withstand rising sea temperatures, <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-genetically-engineered-american-chestnut-will-help-restore-the-decimated-iconic-tree-52191">American chestnut trees</a> that can survive blight and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2018.02.003">mosquitoes that can’t spread disease</a> are examples of how genetic engineering may transform the natural world. </p>
<p>Genetic engineering offers an unprecedented opportunity for humans to reshape the fundamental structure of the biological world. Yet, as new advances in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0692-z">genetic decoding</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805874115">gene editing</a> emerge with speed and enthusiasm, the ecological systems they could alter remain enormously complex and understudied. </p>
<p>Recently, no group of organisms has received more attention for genetic modification than mosquitoes – to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0003864">yield inviable offspring</a> or make them <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1002458">unsuitable for disease transmission</a>. These strategies hold considerable potential benefits for the hundreds of millions of people impacted by <a href="https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/vector_ecology/mosquito-borne-diseases/en/">mosquito-borne diseases</a> each year. </p>
<p>Although the EPA approved the permit for Oxitec, state approval is still required. A previously planned release in the Florida Keys of an earlier version of Oxitec’s GM mosquito (OX513) was <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/gmo-mosquito-application-withdrawn-another-way#stream/0">withdrawn in 2018</a> after <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/gmo-mosquito-application-withdrawn-another-way#stream/0">a referendum in 2016</a> indicated significant opposition from local residents. Oxitec has field-trialed their GM mosquitoes in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23299460.2017.1326257">Brazil</a>, the Cayman Islands, Malaysia and Panama. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://beta.regulations.gov/document/EPA-HQ-OPP-2019-0274-0355">public forum</a> on Oxitec’s recent permit application garnered 31,174 comments opposing release and 56 in support. The EPA considered these during their review process. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338910/original/file-20200601-95036-uhkqxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2016, technicians from the Oxitec laboratory located in Campinas, Brazil, released genetically modified mosquitoes <em>Aedes egypti</em> to combat the Zika virus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/biologist-works-with-genetically-modified-mosquitoes-on-news-photo/509588568?adppopup=true">Victor Moriyama / Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Time to reassess risk assessment?</h2>
<p>However, it is difficult to <a href="https://beta.regulations.gov/document/EPA-HQ-OPP-2019-0274-0359">assess how EPA regulators</a> weighed and considered public comments and how much of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz009">evidence used in final risk determinations</a> was provided solely by the technology developers. </p>
<p>The closed nature of this risk assessment process is concerning to us. </p>
<p>There is a potential bias and conflict of interest when experimental trials and assessments of ecological risk lack <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23299460.2017.1326257">political accountability</a> and are performed by, or in close collaboration with, the technology developers. </p>
<p>This scenario becomes more troubling with a <a href="https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/intrexon-scores-oxitec-in-160-million-stock-cash-deal-/">for-profit technology company</a> when cost- and risk-benefit analyses comparing GM mosquitoes to other approaches <a href="https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EPA-HQ-OPP-2019-0274">aren’t being conducted</a>. </p>
<p>Another concern is that <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/271990">risk assessments</a> tend to focus on only a narrow set of biological parameters – such as the potential for the GM mosquito to transmit disease or the potential of the mosquitoes’ new proteins to trigger an allergic response in people – and neglect other important <a href="https://www.econexus.info/publication/release-gm-mosquito-aedes-aegypti-ox513a">biological</a>, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0006501">ethical</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2017.1350011">social</a> considerations. </p>
<p>To address these shortcomings, the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign convened a “<a href="https://sustainability.illinois.edu/outreach/critical-conversations/critical-conversation-spring-2019/">Critical Conversation</a>” on GM mosquitoes. The discussion involved 35 participants from academic, government and nonprofit organizations from around the world with expertise in mosquito biology, community engagement and risk assessment. </p>
<p>A primary takeaway from this conversation was an urgent need to make regulatory procedures more transparent, comprehensive and protected from biases and conflicts of interest. In short, we believe it is time to reassess risk assessment for GM mosquitoes. Here are some of the key elements we recommend.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338919/original/file-20200601-95024-hn134f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mosquito spray OFF! was handed out for free at the Zika Virus Town Hall Meeting at Waverly Condominiums in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-looking-at-the-free-mosquito-spray-off-being-given-news-photo/917609734?adppopup=true">Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Steps to make risk assessment more open and comprehensive</h2>
<p>First, an official, government-funded registry for GM organisms specifically designed to reproduce in the wild and intended for release in the U.S. would make risk assessments more transparent and accountable. Similar to the U.S. <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/">database that lists all human clinical trials</a>, this field trial registry would require all technology developers to disclose intentions to release, information on their GM strategy, scale and location of release and intentions for data collection.</p>
<p>This registry could be presented in a way that protects intellectual property rights, just as therapies entering clinical trials are patent-protected in their registry. The GM organism registry would be updated in real time and made fully available to the public. </p>
<p>Second, a broader set of risks needs to be assessed and an evidence base needs to be generated by third-party researchers. Because each GM mosquito is released into a unique environment, risk assessments and experiments prior to and during trial releases should address local effects on the ecosystem and food webs. They should also probe the disease transmission potential of the mosquito’s wild counterparts and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1560/IJEE.56.3-4.353">ecological competitors</a>, examine evolutionary pressures on disease agents in the mosquito community and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5392">track the gene flow</a> between GM and wild mosquitoes. </p>
<p>To identify and assess risks, a commitment of funding is necessary. The U.S. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/research-grants/assessment-tools-biotechnology-products">EPA’s recent announcement</a> that it would improve general risk assessment analysis for biotechnology products is a good start. But regulatory and funding support for an external advisory committee to review assessments for GM organisms released in the wild is also needed; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4612">diverse expertise and local community representation</a> would secure a more fair and comprehensive assessment. </p>
<p>Furthermore, independent researchers and advisers could help guide what data are collected during trials to reduce uncertainty and inform future large-scale releases and risk assessments.</p>
<p>The objective to reduce or even eliminate mosquito-borne disease is laudable. GM mosquitoes could prove to be an important tool in alleviating global health burdens. However, to ensure their success, we believe that regulatory frameworks for open, comprehensive and participatory decision-making are urgently needed. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated to correct the date that Oxitec withdrew its OX513 trial application to 2018.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Allan receives funding from the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Kuzma receives funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Walton Family Foundation and National Science Foundation.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Kofler receives funding from the University of Illinois Institute for Sustainability, Energy and the Environment. She is an advisor for the Scientific Citizenship Initiative at Harvard Medical School and founder of Editing Nature. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Stone and Holly Tuten do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Release of GM mosquitoes in Florida is imminent. But a multidisciplinary team of scientists believe that more studies are needed first. They encourage a publicly accessible registry for GM organisms.Brian Allan, Associate Professor of Entomology, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignChris Stone, Medical Entomologist, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignHolly Tuten, Vector Ecologist, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignJennifer Kuzma, Goodnight-NCGSK Distinguished Professor, North Carolina State UniversityNatalie Kofler, Scientific Citizenship Initiative Advisor and Center for Bioethics Lecturer, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1366752020-04-30T16:09:41Z2020-04-30T16:09:41ZCoronavirus is significant, but is it a true black swan event?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329227/original/file-20200420-152597-42q13c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=360%2C54%2C2684%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A black swan event must meet three criteria: it must be an outlier, must have a major impact and must be declared predictable in hindsight.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=85763152">(Buiobuione/Wikimedia)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the “black swan” metaphor was coined in the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176226/the-black-swan-second-edition-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb/">2007 book of the same name</a> it has become fashionable to label virtually all low probability/high impact events black swans.</p>
<p>But the danger of making an occurrence like the COVID-19 outbreak appear to be astronomically rare is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. What’s more, those accountable for this preparation will dismiss their blatant failures because of the perceived exceptional nature of the event.</p>
<p>As managing director of the oldest university-based disaster risk reduction research institute in Canada, and with almost 30 years of researching and writing about disaster risk management, I know this all too well. When you make an event seem exceptional when it really isn’t, it will be used as a crutch by those who failed to prepare in the face of the known risk.</p>
<h2>What is a black swan?</h2>
<p>In <em>The Black Swan</em>, written by professor, statistician and former options trader Nassim Taleb, the author explains how an event can come to be named a black swan:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact.’ Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So, by their very nature, black swan events are quite exclusive. They must be, because if next to everything is a black swan, then nothing is.</p>
<p>But this still leaves the question: Can COVID-19 be considered a black swan?</p>
<p>Let’s look at some of the facts and place them against the three attributes set out by Taleb.</p>
<h2>Attribute one: Is the COVID pandemic an outlier?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200325-covid-19-the-history-of-pandemics">History shows</a> that infectious diseases, epidemics and pandemics, have been the number 1 mass killers of people, outperforming even natural disasters and wars (indeed, more people died from the 1918 flu outbreak than died in the First World War).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316651/original/file-20200221-92558-afqz51.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Walter Reed Hospital flu ward during the flu epidemic of 1918-19, in Washington D.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-fears-should-we-take-a-deep-breath-130859">(Shutterstock)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That pandemics break out from time to time is well known and well documented.</p>
<p>So, too, are warnings about the “next” outbreak. Says journalist <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/">Ed Yong in <em>The Atlantic</em></a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI">TED Talk</a>. In 2018, I wrote a story for <em>The Atlantic</em> arguing that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/when-the-next-plague-hits/561734/">America was not ready for the pandemic that would eventually come</a>.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spcj6KUr4aA">George W. Bush</a> (in November 2005) and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w50tZonOgoU">Barack Obama</a> (in December 2014) warned of the next pandemic in speeches at the National Institutes of Health.</p>
<p>Along with the historical record and the many articles, papers and other sources that warn of the next pandemic, governments themselves often conduct exercises, <a href="https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about">including table-top simulations</a> and other planning, in an attempt to determine how to get ahead of the next pandemic.</p>
<p>Seven days before Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2017, his aides and out-going Obama administration officials <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797">were briefed on a table-top exercise</a> that played through a fictitious outbreak of H9N2 — an influenza virus — with effects not unlike what we have seen with SARS-CoV-2. </p>
<p>Similarly, in 2019, the Trump administration’s own Department of Health and Human Services carried out a pandemic simulation tagged as “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/819186528/what-last-years-government-simulation-predicted-about-todays-pandemic">Crimson Contagion</a>,” which played out a viral outbreak originating in China that could kill close to 600,000 people in the United States alone.</p>
<p>So, can we say in all fairness and honesty that no one saw the possibility of COVID-19 coming?</p>
<h2>Attribute two: Does COVID-19 carry an extreme impact?</h2>
<p>Taleb’s second requirement is that the event must have a major impact.</p>
<p>At writing, attempting to provide an accurate quantitative impact of COVID-19 would be akin to snapping a picture of an odometer as the car is racing down the Autobahn.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330471/original/file-20200425-163088-18to55.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The need for social distancing to prevent the spread of COVID-19 has required the temporary closing of non-essential businesses, like these boarded-up clothing stores on Robson Street in Vancouver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, while COVID-19 is not anticipated to have an impact even remotely close to that of the 1918 flu outbreak (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html">at least 50 million deaths</a>), there can be no question that the current pandemic has had — and will continue to have — an extreme impact, both on people and on national economies.</p>
<h2>Attribute three: Is it, or will it be, normalized after the fact?</h2>
<p>The concept of “normalizing” a large event — by rendering it explainable or predictable in hindsight — completes the three criteria and makes it a black swan. However, this element seems quite arbitrary, raising several questions:</p>
<p>Who is qualified to normalize an event in this manner, whereby the initial shock of the event is then casually dismissed?</p>
<p>How can we know if an event is normalized unjustly or if the normalization is legitimate?</p>
<p>Can important comments by journalists like <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200325-covid-19-the-history-of-pandemics">Bryan Walsh</a> (“COVID-19, could not have been more predictable” and “COVID-19 marks the return of a very old — and familiar — enemy”) and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/">Yong</a> (“A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable”) be effectively neutralized by dismissing them as mere attempts to normalize or brush off the current crisis? The danger in doing so is that rejecting the inevitability of a pandemic like COVID-19 also enables us to reject the likelihood of future pandemics, and the need to be better prepared.</p>
<p>And, since the propensity to normalize can be attributed to a blind spot in human cognition (that is, <a href="https://dictionary.apa.org/hindsight-bias">people are hardwired to normalize</a>), should it even be an attribute of a black swan in the first place?</p>
<p>Since we are still in the midst of the current pandemic crisis, we do not yet know whether the COVID-19 pandemic will be normalized. </p>
<h2>So COVID-19, a black swan or no?</h2>
<p>In the study of natural hazards, the chances of a flood or an earthquake or a hurricane happening in any given period in a given place is expressed in terms of time and probability. For example, the probability of one in 100 years for a flood means that there is a one per cent chance of a flood affecting a given area in any one year. This means that there is a 99 per cent chance that a given place will not be flooded — pretty good odds.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331251/original/file-20200429-110775-oaar8g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1163&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is COVID-19 a black swan, or not?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Penguin Random House)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, if you carry that same probability over a longer time frame — say over the life of a mortgage or the time residents plan to stay in a home (let’s say it’s 30 years) — the probability of a one in 100 flood hitting that house goes from one per cent per year to 26 per cent over the course of the mortgage — greater than one in four odds.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2471%2FBLT.17.199588">a 2018 research study</a>, investigators made the assumption that the probability of a pandemic of a certain level occurring is one in 100, or one per cent in any given year. So, just as with a flood, when calculated for a 30-year period, there is greater than a one in four chance of a pandemic occurring. Carrying the odds over 50 years means there is almost a 40 per cent chance of a global outbreak.</p>
<p>The subtitle of Taleb’s book is “The impact of the highly improbable.” But an event like COVID-19 is not all that rare. Indeed, history is replete with such events, there have been numerous warnings from many sources, and the mathematical odds of an occurrence are not all that remote. With pandemics, it is not really a question of if, but usually when.</p>
<p>Indeed, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system">Taleb recently weighed in</a> on the question of whether COVID-19 is or isn’t a black swan. </p>
<p>Spoiler alert: it isn’t.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn McGillivray works for the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, an independent, not for profit research institute with a focus on disaster risk reduction. The Institute is funded by the Canadian property and casualty insurance industry and receives occasional funding from various levels of government to conduct research.
</span></em></p>The danger of treating COVID-19 as an astronomically rare and improbable event is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. And there will be another pandemic.Glenn McGillivray, Managing Director, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1371192020-04-27T12:11:52Z2020-04-27T12:11:52ZLethargic global response to COVID-19: How the human brain’s failure to assess abstract threats cost us dearly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330444/original/file-20200424-163098-1rmkdu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5771%2C3818&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Trump administration was not alone with its slow response to the COVID-19 crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-participates-in-a-signing-ceremony-news-photo/1210884734?adppopup=true">Getty Images / White House Pool</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More U.S. citizens have confirmed COVID-19 infections than the next <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/">five most affected countries</a> combined. Yet as recently as mid-March, President Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/fact-check-trump-always-knew-pandemic-coronavirus/index.html">downplayed the gravity</a> of the crisis by falsely claiming the coronavirus was nothing more than seasonal flu, or a Chinese hoax, or a deep state plot designed to damage his reelection bid.</p>
<p>The current U.S. administration’s mishandling of the coronavirus threat is part of a larger problem in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/">pandemic management</a>. Many government officials, medical experts, scholars and journalists continued to underestimate the dangers of COVID-19, even as the disease upended life in China as early as mid-January. </p>
<p>The results of this collective inertia are catastrophic indeed. The U.S., along with Italy, Spain, Iran and the French Alsace, is now the <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">site of humanitarian tragedies</a>, the kind we see erupting in the aftermath of natural disasters or military conflicts. Much of the world appears inadequately prepared to recognize, let alone anticipate, when such threats occur. </p>
<p>Times of deep crisis offer the opportunity for new kinds of conversations. As a <a href="https://psychiatry.med.wayne.edu/profile/dz0083">psychiatrist</a> studying how the human brain responds to fear and stress, and as a <a href="https://lsa.umich.edu/history/people/graduate-students/ccapotes.html">historian</a> working on humanitarian responses to disasters, we find surprising points of agreement on the coronavirus pandemic. From a historical and psychological perspective, there are good explanations for why so many among us fail to read the writing on the wall before a catastrophe strikes with full force.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330448/original/file-20200424-163088-dhh2sr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beachgoers in Jacksonville, Florida on April 17. Many were not observing social distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jacksonville-beach-police-officer-patrols-the-crowded-news-photo/1210313300?adppopup=true">Getty Images / Icon Sportswire</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s hard to prepare for sudden change</h2>
<p>Our failure to assess risks and make sense of calamitous events is not limited to government politics. It permeates our daily lives and social relationships. Consider the recalcitrant friend, neighbor or family member who shrugged off the seriousness of COVID-19. Think of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/deniers-and-disbelievers-if-i-get-corona-i-get-corona.html">disinterested spring breakers</a> on Florida’s beaches in mid-March. Even in the eye of a cyclone, societies fail to come together when faced by a looming catastrophe. </p>
<p>Perhaps partisanship and tribal thinking hamper our ability to accurately assess risk. Maybe this pandemic is so complex that it overwhelmed existing institutional preparedness. Certainly presidential vanity, dysfunctional loyalism and personality cults, on stark display in the White House, greatly exacerbated the crisis. </p>
<p>That said, here’s an overarching explanation: It’s difficult for humans to adapt to sudden change. That’s because we don’t know how to tie personal experience to the broader historical context in which we live.</p>
<p>Put another way: We ignore history. We don’t learn from similar events or direct antecedents. We don’t consider worst-case scenarios. We don’t plot how a relatively isolated event (such as the early outbreak in China) could trigger a worldwide chain reaction. </p>
<p>Two examples: The Great Depression, beginning with the stock market crash of 1929, spiraled into the deepest economic plunge in U.S. history. The 1939 invasion of Poland by the Nazis violently erupted into a world war. A variety of cognitive challenges confronted those living during those times. As during the current pandemic, few saw what was coming, and few correctly assessed the long-term consequences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330451/original/file-20200424-163058-1dd4lwz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even with the Great Depression, it took time before Americans fully understood how serious the crisis was.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-front-page-of-the-brooklyn-daily-eagle-newspaper-with-news-photo/78075346?adppopup=true">Getty Images / Icon Communications</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Distant threats don’t spur us to action</h2>
<p>There is also a distinct psychology of threat that often hampers rational and predictive behavior. The human brain <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/the-science-of-fright-why-we-love-to-be-scared">isn’t well suited</a> to assign emotional valence to what it perceives as abstract dangers. We often don’t respond appropriately to distant threats. </p>
<p>Instead, we function on a primordial level where close, immediate experiences will trigger a real sense of danger. Someone standing in front of you with a gun is one. An explosion from across the street is another. But spatially or temporally distant events remain intangible. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-politics-of-fear-how-it-manipulates-us-to-tribalism-113815">As tribal beings</a>, we seem much less interested in caring for a problem that might not – at least at first – be ours. </p>
<p>Consider President Trump’s turnaround from stubborn denial to seeming acceptance that COVID-19 could claim up to more than 200,000 American lives. Only after someone close to him contracted the coronavirus and fell into a coma did Trump seem taken aback by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/trump-friend-coronavirus-stanley-chera.html">tragedy</a>. </p>
<p>As a species, we are unable to grasp abstract events that are outside our personal experience or do not occur in our immediate vicinity. Tragedies occurring in other tribes, such as COVID-19 in China or Europe, appear as vague possibilities. They elicit as much curiosity as a Hollywood movie (think of “Contagion”). To the human mind, these events seem unreal. </p>
<p>When a threat is temporarily or spatially distant, we will fail to correctly determine the risk of these looming events. This is true if the disaster occurred 100 years ago (like the Spanish flu) or if it will happen 100 years from now (like global warming). It’s true if the threat is 50 days or 5,000 miles away from us. As long as a threat is not in immediate proximity, we will find it difficult to imagine its repercussions. We may fail to take the necessary precautions.
Somehow, we must learn not to be stubborn creatures of the here and now.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Human beings have difficulty assessing distant threats.Arash Javanbakht, Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Wayne State UniversityCristian Capotescu, Doctoral Candidate, Department of History, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1287722019-12-16T03:54:00Z2019-12-16T03:54:00ZCall for clearer risk information for tourists following Whakaari/White Island tragedy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306985/original/file-20191215-85404-hoj6ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C68%2C2663%2C1657&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Royal New Zealand Navy during a recovery operation on Whakaari/White Island, on December 13. Rescue and recovery efforts have been hampered by hazardous conditions on the island, and the danger of another eruption. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Royal NZ Navy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the aftermath of the tragedy at Whakaari/White Island on December 9, many are analysing the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-were-tourists-allowed-on-white-island-128621">risks of adventure tourism</a>, particularly volcano tourism, and asking pointed questions. </p>
<p>It is a sensitive time, with 16 people now confirmed dead, many hospitalised in critical condition, and two bodies yet to be retrieved from the disaster zone. </p>
<p>We question whether the tourists caught up in the events actually knew the risks they faced, and whether other tourist groups may be unaware of the potential risks that their travel decisions may carry.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sNpc3JcbPU0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Although geologists are monitoring Whakaari/White Island, some volcanic activity cannot be predicted.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-were-tourists-allowed-on-white-island-128621">Why were tourists allowed on White Island?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Risk assessment and visitor safety</h2>
<p>The websites for White Island Tours and the promotion pages on the Bay of Plenty website are currently not viewable. But the <a href="https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attraction_Review-g652408-d1603032-Reviews-White_Island_Tours-Whakatane_Bay_of_Plenty_Region_North_Island.html">Trip Advisor site for Whakaari</a> calls it “New Zealand’s most active volcano”. It mentions the need for gas masks and hard hats and describes conditions of a still active volcano, including steam vents and sulphurous fumes.</p>
<p>But it is doubtful that cruise ship passengers, such as those from the Ovation of the Seas, would have done such research. Cruises offer a variety of shore excursions when in port, ranging from passive sightseeing to adventure activities. </p>
<p>Many tourists will assume endorsed excursions have been properly vetted by their cruise company and assume there is negligible risk to personal safety. But this may not be the case. </p>
<p>Major cruise lines such as Royal Caribbean visit multiple destinations with very different regulatory environments. The assumption that shore excursions will be safe may be misplaced, both by the cruise line and the visitors they book on such excursions. This is now clear from the events at Whakaari but also in previous incidents, such as <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/can-cruise-lines-ensure-shore-excursions-are-safe/">last year’s fatal bus crash</a> in Mexico.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306987/original/file-20191215-85391-1csvpub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local supporters gather on the quayside as a boat that carried families for a morning blessing at White Island returns during a recovery operation to retrieve the remaining bodies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Rowland</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adventure capital</h2>
<p>New Zealand is known as an adventure tourism destination, but its regulatory systems have undergone recent change. After 37 deaths over four years, then prime minister John Key <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/ipad-editors-picks/10339571/The-dark-side-of-adventure-tourism">ordered an urgent safety audit</a> in 2009. </p>
<p>This resulted in a shift, from 2013, from a voluntary system under Outdoors New Zealand and the regulatory system under Worksafe NZ to the <a href="https://www.jas-anz.org/new-zealand-adventure-activities-certification-nzaac-scheme">New Zealand adventure activity certification scheme</a>. Some tour operators have found this audit system too onerous. Striking the right balance between risk management while allowing the adventure tourism sector to thrive has proved difficult.</p>
<p>But the case of Whakaari/White Island is unique in many ways. The island is privately owned. GeoNet monitors volcanic activity and <a href="https://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/vab/">rates the threat level</a>. The tour companies then assess the risk and determine if visits can proceed or should be temporarily suspended. </p>
<p>Three companies have operated tours to Whakaari/White Island, including the Māori-owned White Island Tours (owned by Ngāti Awa). The other two are helicopter companies Kahu and Volcanic Air Safaris. White Island Tours was accredited under <a href="https://www.adventuremark.co.nz/">AdventureMark</a>, which is a Worksafe NZ approved certification body.</p>
<p>We must await the Worksafe investigation to know whether it was reasonable to allow the tours to go ahead when volcanic risk rating had risen from level 1 to level 2. We also still await the full human toll, knowing that recovery for survivors may take years. It is also clear that the impact on Ngāti Awa and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/11/white-island-eruption-mayor-of-whakatane-wants-tours-to-eventually-resume">Whakatāne community</a> has been profound.</p>
<h2>Inherent risk in active environments</h2>
<p>In laying out these complexities in which small private tour companies and large internationally owned cruise ships took <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12292390">thousands of visitors to Whakaari each year</a>, we underscore how difficult an assessment of risk might be for some visitors. </p>
<p>Adventure tourists typically make an assessment weighing up risks against the thrills they seek to achieve. New Zealand’s reputation for adventure tourism is built in part on well developed policy settings and regulatory regimes, and an expectation among visitors of high adventure safety standards. </p>
<p>Risk - both perceived and actual – is carefully managed to ensure that perceived risk is high but actual risk is as low as humanly possible. The reputation of the sector and, indeed, the interests of the wider New Zealand tourism industry hinge on high safety standards. For example, bungy jumping appears to be very high risk, but its commercial viability comes from the highly controlled operation, which means actual risk is in fact very low. </p>
<p>Set against this are longstanding activities that take visitors into spectacular settings to experience firsthand the wonders of nature. Such environments do present inherent risk even if many decades may pass between natural events. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108949437/pink-and-white-terraces-niwa-scientists-confirm-the-location-of-nzs-lost-natural-wonder">Pink and White Terraces</a> – the largest silica sinter deposit on earth - were a spectacular visitor attraction in the mid-19th century, and the centrepiece of Māori tourism development. That was until they were completely destroyed by the eruption of Mount Tarawera in 1886. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s most stunning natural vistas – Aoraki/Mount Cook, the fjords of Te Wahipounamu world heritage area, towering glaciers and raging rivers - are the result of millions of years of seismic activity on the <a href="https://www.otago.ac.nz/geology/research/structural-geology/alpine-fault/nz-tectonics.html">Pacific and Australian tectonic plate boundary</a>. These environments are dynamic and, at times, very destructive. </p>
<p>These settings contrast adventure tourism activities. Risk may be perceived as low or non-existent given that these environments may be largely inactive for years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-white-island-erupted-and-why-there-was-no-warning-128550">Why White Island erupted and why there was no warning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Informed consent</h2>
<p>In a complex international environment, the ultimate decision to participate in activities in dynamic and potentially destructive environments rests with the visitors. </p>
<p>Ultimately, visitor welfare depends on informed visitor choice. This case highlights the need for consent forms to be signed in many more cases, beyond those already used in <a href="https://www.gadventures.com.au/terms-conditions/participation-waiver/">adventure tourism</a> and medical tourism. </p>
<p>Such documents should make clear the nature of the possible risks. Elevated risk levels on the day of the visit as well as changing risk levels in the days prior to the scheduled visit should be clearly communicated. Participation should only proceed after informed consent is secured.</p>
<p>Such an approach does not obviate the need for accreditation, audits, regulations and strict oversight by relevant authorities. But it does ensure that tourists play their part in deciding what risks are worth taking on their holidays.</p>
<p>We cannot undo the events that unfolded at Whakaari/ White Island, but we can honour lives lost by making absolutely sure that we learn from this tragedy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The tragedy at Whakaari/White Island highlights the need for consent forms to ensure tourists are fully informed when choosing to visit dangerous locations.Freya Higgins-Desbiolles, Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management, University of South AustraliaJames Higham, Professor of Tourism, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1235752019-10-27T12:05:01Z2019-10-27T12:05:01ZPrisons are not the answer to preventing crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297237/original/file-20191015-98644-hk01xk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=96%2C106%2C6337%2C4157&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. incarcerates more people than any other place in the world. Warehousing people in prison is costly and unsustainable.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each day in the United States and Canada, it seems like the news media reports another shooting or act of violence that ends in tragedy. As a result, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/17/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/">politicians and the public</a> often leap to the conclusion that violence is on the rise and that the answer is to throw more people behind bars. </p>
<p>However, this conclusion flies in the face of research. Crime statistics demonstrate that since the 1990s, <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2018-crime-statistics-released-093019">rates of violence have fallen in the U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190722/cg-a002-eng.htm">Canada</a>. And although some people are dangerous and need to be in prison, in other cases, locking people up is a waste of taxpayer dollars that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0032885511415224">may do more harm than good</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than getting tough on crime, justice agencies need to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/opinions/end-tough-on-crime-garrett-opinion/index.html">get smart on crime</a>. For instance, rather than indiscriminately cramming everyone into prison, justice agencies should use scientifically supported methods to identify which defendants truly pose a danger to others. </p>
<p>We are researchers who work with American and Canadian justice agencies to help them develop effective methods to identify and manage people who may be violent towards others. We explain why jailing everyone is not the answer to preventing violence, and how many researchers have developed risk assessment tools to help justice agencies make better decisions about who to imprison and what services to provide. </p>
<h2>Jailing everyone is not the answer</h2>
<p>The U.S. incarcerates more people than <a href="https://www.prisonstudies.org/highest-to-lowest/prison_population_rate?field_region_taxonomy_tid=All">any other place in the world</a>. However, many politicians have recently concluded that warehousing people in prison is costly and unsustainable. As such, politicians have been trying to <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf">bring down prison rates</a>. An example of this is the new <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/756/text#toc-idf6d6f8724d0d4799b9f45809dca1a3fa">First Step Act</a> in the U.S., which obtained strong support from both Republicans and Democrats. American politicians are shifting their thinking for many reasons. Here are a few:</p>
<p><strong>1. Prisons cost a lot</strong></p>
<p>Prisons are expensive to operate. In the U.S., the total state expenditure on prisons is at least <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/money.html">US$81 billion</a>. In Canada, taxpayers pay an average of <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2018/dpb-pbo/YN5-152-2018-eng.pdf">$114,000 a year per prisoner</a>. It’s <a href="http://www.wsipp.wa.gov/ReportFile/1033/Wsipp_Evidence-Based-Public-Policy-Options-to-Reduce-Crime-and-Criminal-Justice-Costs-Implications-in-Washington-State_Full-Report.pdf">cheaper and more effective to provide treatment</a> than it is to put someone behind bars.</p>
<p><strong>2. Locking people up doesn’t make us safer</strong></p>
<p>Research shows that putting people behind bars <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/599202">does not reduce reoffending</a>, and some studies show it can make matters worse. From working in prisons, we have seen this firsthand; prisons can be schools for crime. If you take a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2013.01.007">teenager</a> who’s never gotten in trouble before and stuff them in a confined space with people who are already entrenched in crime, they won’t necessarily turn into a good law-abiding citizen.</p>
<p><strong>3. We lock up the wrong people</strong></p>
<p>Although some of the people we jail are dangerous, many are not. Many have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(02)07740-1">mental illnesses</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01316.x">addictions</a>. Some are teenagers who have made bad decisions. And many have not even been found guilty — they’re still <a href="https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/82_2_2_0.pdf">waiting for their trial</a>. Also, decisions about who we put behind bars are prone to biases and <a href="https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/un-report-on-racial-disparities/">disparities</a>.</p>
<p>For example, in Canada, even though incarceration rates have fallen, the proportion of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/cjccj.2016.E24">prisoners who are Indigenous</a> is growing — <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/85-002-x/2018001/article/54972-eng.pdf?st=BMCpEdJR">60 per cent of imprisoned teenage girls</a> are Indigenous. </p>
<h2>Who is dangerous?</h2>
<p>How do law makers decide who is dangerous and truly needs to be locked up? Judges, police, and probation officers make these decisions all the time. They can use one of two approaches — they can either rely on their own intuitions or hunches, or they can use decision-making aids called risk assessment instruments. </p>
<p><strong>Option 1: Rely on hunches</strong></p>
<p>Historically, professionals had to rely on their hunches about who would be violent. Prior to the 1980s, research was scarce and there were no guidelines to help professionals. Without guidance, it can be difficult to predict who will be violent — even for experts. Early studies suggested that experts who use their intuitions to decide who will be violent were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1176/ajp.141.1.10">accurate less than half the time</a>. They would be better off flipping a coin.</p>
<p><strong>Option 2: Use risk assessment instruments based on research</strong></p>
<p>Given these worrisome findings, scientists set out to develop <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721410397271">better ways to determine a person’s risk of violence</a>. They conducted hundreds of studies on factors that predicted violence — for example, substance use and antisocial beliefs. They used these factors to create tools that told professionals what risk factors to consider and how to identify them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298397/original/file-20191023-119414-mmirzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Risk assessment tools can help those in the judicial system make better choices according to recent research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of these instruments are formulas or algorithms, whereas others are decision-making aids that include a list risk factors and rating criteria, but allow professionals to take into account unique considerations for a given person. Although these instruments are not crystal balls, hundreds of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.e4692">studies demonstrate</a> many of these risk assessment approaches <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014421">help to predict violence</a>. </p>
<h2>Risk assessment tools used globally</h2>
<p>Justice agencies in Canada, the U.S. and many other countries now routinely use these risk assessment tools <a href="https://university.pretrial.org/viewdocument/survey-of-pretrial-s">to help decide who to detain</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-021815-092945">imprison</a>, and what rehabilitation programs to provide. These assessment devices are also used <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2017.1398058">to decide who is ready for release</a>. </p>
<p>What impact do these decision aids have? </p>
<p><strong>Risk assessment decreases incarceration</strong></p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.apa.org/pubs/highlights/spotlight/issue-161">new study</a> that looks mostly at the U.S., we compiled data from over a million defendants and offenders at 30 sites. We found that when justice agencies adopted risk assessment instruments, detention rates <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000344">decreased slightly</a>. Even though fewer people were being locked up, crime rates either declined or stayed the same. In other words, risk assessment can help minimize incarceration without jeopardizing public safety. </p>
<p><strong>Are the assessment tools biased?</strong></p>
<p>But do these assessment tools help counteract over-incarceration of Black and Indigenous Peoples or do they contain invisible biases that amplify preexisting disparities? In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000344">our recent review</a>, we found that when justice agencies used risk assessment instruments, jail rates decreased slightly for Black and white people. However, findings varied as to whether the size of this decrease was similar across groups. Also, studies have not yet tested how the use of these tools impact incarceration rates for Indigenous Peoples. </p>
<p>We need more research. In Canada, the <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/17133/index.do">Supreme Court</a> recently reprimanded the prison system for failing to adequately test if the risk assessment devices they use are appropriate for Indigenous Peoples. </p>
<p>In sum, risk assessment instruments are not going to fix all our problems. However, justice systems need to make decisions about who is dangerous somehow. And, given the choice between relying on untested intuitions, which historically have resulted in dramatic <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/181202.pdf">racial disparities</a>, or using instruments that were developed through decades of research, instruments offer clear advantages. </p>
<p>They may help justice systems make decisions that preserve public safety without falling prey to knee-jerk calls to lock everyone up. </p>
<p>However, whatever approach justice agencies ultimately decide to use, they need to make sure it is fair and just, and they need to carefully test its effects. These decisions are far too important to simply rely on hunches. </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123575/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jodi Viljoen received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada/Simon Fraser University Institutional Grants program for the study described in this article. These funders did not have any input into the research analyses or the interpretation of the findings. She has worked with justice agencies to develop and test risk and treatment planning tools for adolescents; the tools she has authored are not discussed in this article or used in these types of contexts.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Vincent receives funding from the U.S. Department of Justice Programs, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. This funder did not fund the research in this article or have input into the article. She has assisted many juvenile justice agencies with the selection and implementation of risk assessment instruments, but those instruments and the work are not mentioned in this article.</span></em></p>Putting more people in prison is not the answer to reducing crime. New fair and bias free assessment tools may help.Jodi Viljoen, Professor of Clinical and Forensic Psychology, Simon Fraser UniversityGina Vincent, Associate Professor at the Implementation Science & Practice Advances Research Center, UMass Chan Medical SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1163342019-05-13T21:32:39Z2019-05-13T21:32:39ZMeasles outbreak: Why are anti-vaxxers risking a public health crisis?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272527/original/file-20190503-103071-v6avgb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=188%2C104%2C6591%2C4526&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A risk analysis could offer insight into the anti-vaccination decision of some parents.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The current outbreak of measles has startled public health practitioners, who <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html">declared measles controlled over two decades ago</a>. We are now grappling with <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-as-us-battles-measles-emergency-patchy-vaccination-rates-raise/">a low-level epidemic</a> that may become endemic. Health professionals, armed with <a href="https://www.publichealth.org/public-awareness/understanding-vaccines/vaccine-myths-debunked/">the science to back up vaccination,</a> strongly disapprove of parents who do not vaccinate their children. They characterise objections to vaccines as ignorant and <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/opting-out-of-vaccines-should-opt-you-out-of-american-society/">irresponsible</a>.</p>
<p>Measles caused 110,000 deaths worldwide in 2018, but so far, only 65 occurred in the Americas (mostly in Venezuela and Brazil) and none in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html">North America</a>. In Canada, the small but rapidly <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/measles/surveillance-measles/measles-rubella-weekly-monitoring-reports.html">trending upward number of cases</a> is far from an epidemic. </p>
<p>However, with over 200,000 unvaccinated children <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/287-000-young-children-in-canada-don-t-have-the-measles-vaccine-unicef-1.4393929">under the age of five</a> and some areas well below the target immunization rate of <a href="https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/editorials/low-vaccination-rates-troubling-508967462.html">95 per cent</a>, this may change quickly.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272521/original/file-20190503-103085-d6l40z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vaccines protect children from measles, a highly contagious airborne disease.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Measles is a highly contagious airborne disease with a relatively small rate of serious <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/complications.html">complication</a>. With the recommended double dose, the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/vaccination.html">97 per cent effective against measles</a>. </p>
<p>Anti-vaxxers also cite the <a href="https://www.nvic.org/vaccines-and-diseases/measles/measles-vaccine-injury-death.aspx">complications of vaccination</a> as a reason to doubt the value of the MMR vaccine. But these complications are exceedingly rare. </p>
<p>Weighing the decision of not to vaccinate with the probability of falling ill is at the heart of the risk analysis made by all parents.</p>
<h2>Applying risk analysis to a public health crisis</h2>
<p>I am an economist and <a href="https://www.acsh.org/tags/anti-vaxx">the anti-vaxx movement</a> makes me think of how a risk analysis could offer insight into the anti-vaccination decision of some parents.</p>
<p>Risk analysis uses probability to predict the ultimate impact of a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-analysis.asp">decision</a>. We use risk analysis every day from simple problems such as whether to take an umbrella based on a weather forecast, to assessing when it is safe to cross over into oncoming traffic to pass another car. Getting wet because we forget an umbrella has a smaller consequence than making a poor car-passing decision. </p>
<p>Just how do we combine probability of an outcome with the impact of that outcome to make the best decision? </p>
<p>Most commonly, everyday experience is our guide. We get wet once because we leave the umbrella at home, and then we start using the weather forecast and the probability of precipitation as a guide. Those of us who are averse to a bad hair days will pack an umbrella with just a 10 per cent chance of rain. Others will take no preventive action until forecasters set precipitation at 75 per cent. We balance the probability of an occurrence with its perceived cost or benefit if that outcome transpires.</p>
<p>The essential problem with risk analysis regarding vaccines and anti-vaxxers is that parents have increasingly limited time to assess complex medical issues. Risk analysis requires the balancing of probabilities and context and that is hard to do with health related decisions. </p>
<h2>Anti-vaxxers</h2>
<p>Normally for health matters we have relied on experts such as a family physicians or public health information offered by governments and trusted third parties. </p>
<p>But medical advice no longer comes just from family physicians. A growing panoply of wellness practitioners advise the public. While creating a <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.49.6.786">holistic definition of health</a> makes sense, it has also had the unintended consequence of creating an opening for <a href="https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/timothy-caulfield-are-we-enabling-harmful-wellness-woo">an army of so called “experts” who opine on health matters</a>, often crowding out information from traditional medical sources. </p>
<p>Also, as I recall when a parent of young children, <a href="https://www.parents.com/baby/new-parent/sleep-deprivation/how-to-get-sleep/">many parents are sleep deprived</a>, giving them little time to fact-check so many rely on the advice of friends and doctors. Social media has also created <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/feb/01/facebook-youtube-anti-vaccination-misinformation-social-media">echo chambers of misinformation</a> and it is easy to fall into a circle of “virtual” authorities that first create then build on misinformation. </p>
<p>Complicating the assessment of risk from measles is the increasingly <a href="https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/">sophisticated</a> internet-based advocacy against vaccination that sow fear, uncertainty and doubt. </p>
<p>For example, although the direct link between the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine and autism has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/health/measles-vaccine-autism.html">laid to rest repeatedly and most recently using big data,</a> anti-vaxxers continue to circulate the weak association between aluminum and autism and the fact that some vaccines contain aluminum salts. This partial information leads to an erroneous inference that measles vaccine can lead to autism. </p>
<p>In fact, the MMR vaccine does not contain aluminum salts. Aluminum is the <a href="https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-ingredients/aluminum">third-most-abundant element</a> after oxygen and silicon, and any vaccine is a minor source of this element for all of us. But the lingering and faulty inference is that vaccinating your children against measles exposes them to high levels of aluminum and therefore raises the <a href="https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/in-the-news/measles-how-about-autism/">risk for autism</a>. </p>
<p>Many parents do not have the time or ability to undertake the research to penetrate the misinformation of the anti-vaxxers and therefore can be left with a flawed analysis of the risks associated with not vaccinating their children. </p>
<h2>Combating misinformation</h2>
<p>Let’s try and understand why parents are making these dangerous health decisions. I believe that if parents have more accessible information, they may be more able to undertake a true risk assessment of vaccinations.</p>
<p>Taking on the “myth-information” of anti-vaxxers directly in sharp concise messages and calling them out by name will be more successful than general information on web sites.</p>
<p>Parents need to become better consumers of information: always check the sponsors of websites offering medical advice.</p>
<p>But this may not be enough. I tend to take medical advice on vaccinations. When my physician suggested I was of an age to get the shingles vaccine, I did. But I was ready to do this anyway as I know three people who have had shingles, one mild, the other moderate with lingering pain to this day, and one who had a severely disfiguring case that triggered early retirement. </p>
<p>My direct experience with the disease really prompted my decision to vaccinate.</p>
<p>I fear that only when some children die, or become severely damaged as was common in the pre-vaccination days, will risk become real to vaccine-hesitant parents, and then we will see a stampede to get the shots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116334/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory C Mason receives funding from the Thorlakson Family Foundation for research in the impact of telemedicine and electronic health records in health outcomes. He has also been funded by Worker's Compensation Board of Manitoba for research into the intangible costs of workplace accidents as well as the Manitoba Government to examine the value for money of cancer screening.</span></em></p>An economics risk analysis offers some insight into the modern anti-vaxx movement.Gregory C Mason, Associate Professor of Economics, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1040832018-10-12T10:11:28Z2018-10-12T10:11:28Z‘Fake news’ about volcanic eruptions could put lives at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238695/original/file-20181001-195282-17xzigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C51%2C1414%2C1040&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Katla last erupted in 1918 – but there is no evidence to suggest that it will erupt again soon.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ICELANDIC GLACIAL LANDSCAPES / wiki</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull made worldwide headlines in 2010 when it erupted ash that was blown towards Europe, so that air traffic was grounded across the continent. More recently, the volcano’s bigger sister and neighbour, Katla, has also been in the news. First the <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/giant-iceland-volcano-katla-about-to-erupt-mw8whrnjc">papers said</a> the “giant volcano” was ready to blow, yet within days articles were appearing to say it was all a mistake and the eruption news was <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/09/25/iceland-volcano-eruption-isnt-imminent-despite-wild-headlines/1420060002/">premature</a>. What is going on?</p>
<p>Over the past 1,100 years, <a href="http://earthice.hi.is/katla_volcano">Katla</a> has erupted at least 21 times - an average of around once every 50 years or so. It is exactly a century since the volcano’s last major eruption through the ice, which produced a 14km high column of fragmented volcanic rocks and gas, as well as enormous floods of meltwater, sediment and ice. But this doesn’t mean that another is “due”. Volcanoes don’t erupt to schedule. So why do headlines regularly appear to suggest this is the case?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238699/original/file-20181001-195278-1xkxjsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Katla is in the background…under the ice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">danielmoreira02 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This latest news flurry was triggered by the publication of an <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079096">academic paper</a> by a team of scientists lead by Evgenia Ilyinskaya at the University of Leeds. They had carried out gas-monitoring surveys at Katla in 2016-17, which showed it emitted much more CO₂ than previously estimated. One of the exciting parts of this research was the recommendation that gas monitoring becomes part of the regular observations of volcanoes that are hidden under glaciers or ice sheets. However, many news outlets incorrectly suggested that the observation of these carbon dioxide emissions meant an eruption was imminent, and <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/iceland-volcano-eruption-where-is-katla-how-is-a-volcano-formed-a3943756.html">sounded the alarm</a>.</p>
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<p>This sensationalist approach causes more damage beyond merely being incorrect. From a distance, readers and viewers might be interested in the science, the human story, or because even faraway eruptions can have economic or health costs. But for those living in the shadow of the eruption, the immediate impacts are far more pressing, or even life-threatening. Evacuating from a region, moving family and animals, or leaving your house behind all require a degree of certainty that this risk is real and that it should be avoided. To believe a risk is real, information needs to be trusted and thus information providers need to be trustworthy.</p>
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<p>It should therefore be clear that accurate information is essential. Effective risk communication is needed before, during and after a hazardous event, aiming to prevent and mitigate disaster harm, ensure preparedness and aid recovery.</p>
<p>Inaccurate information will of course mean people will have less faith in scientists and news sources next time round. But it can have more immediate effects too. In July 2018, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/travel/hawaii-tourism-kilauea-volcano-eruption.html">New York Times</a> reported how exaggerated coverage of the ongoing Kilauea eruption in <a href="https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=332010;%20https://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/lava2.htm">Hawaii</a> lead to a vastly inflated risk perception which saw tourism bookings decrease, which in turn led to loss of income and fears about job losses. In the worst instances, poor information can cause people to ignore evacuation orders.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238679/original/file-20181001-195256-yomuq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kilauea lava flows into the ocean. The eruption was impressive – but most people on the island were unaffected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rachel Blaser/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The risks <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-44097-2#toc">aren’t easy to communicate</a>. Hazards do not occur in an easy to predict way, they can happen with little warning, and risk assessments virtually always deal in probabilities rather than absolute certainty. Concepts such as <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html">100-year floods</a> are famously challenging to understand or relate to. In addition, risks to people are influenced by factors such as wealth, age, health, physical ability, whether you own a car, or which floor your apartment is on, so they can vary from person to person, house to house. </p>
<p>Communicating this information therefore comes with responsibilities. By crying wolf too many times, even if the warnings aren’t directly from scientists or the authorities, the media can strongly influence risk perception and create a warning fatigue.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238709/original/file-20181001-195256-zba4pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eyjafjallajökull (left) and Katla from above.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kate Smith</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Journalists and editors must consider the ripple effects from an overly sensational news article, and the potential consequences for lives. It doesn’t take long for inaccurate news to spread and multiply across the internet: see, for example, the volcanologist and science writer <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinandrews/2018/10/04/dont-believe-these-myths-about-indonesias-quake-tsunami-and-eruptions/#727d75184dbc">Robin Andrews</a> having to call out and correct reporting of the recent earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia which often <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1026243/indonesia-tsunami-earthquake-volcano-eruption-sulawei-mount-soputan-palu">conflated</a> it with an unrelated volcanic eruption 600 km away on the same island of Sulawesi. The flip side of this is that competent, reliable communications can boost public trust and reduce fear and panic, helping people to take well-informed actions. </p>
<p>The International Journalist’s Network published an article on <a href="http://ijnet.org/en/blog/advice-journalists-covering-natural-disasters">disaster journalism</a> that presents some useful guidelines, much of which emphasises accuracy. I’d also suggest that journalists checks their facts with the scientists doing the work, or with the local organisation responsible for monitoring the hazard. Journalists should also avoid simplifying the forecasting process too much, ensuring that a possible scenario or timeframe is not presented as something of certainty. Readers should always be referred to a reliable source of further information.</p>
<p>These simple measures can be used as a blueprint for strengthening reporting accuracy, and so help regain trust in science communication and the media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Smith has received funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, The Leverhulme Trust, the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration, the National Power Company of Iceland and the University of Iceland.</span></em></p>We can’t say that Katla in Iceland is ‘due’ to erupt, no matter what you have read.Kate Smith, Geoscientist, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/943662018-04-06T10:45:51Z2018-04-06T10:45:51ZHow to deal with life’s risks more rationally<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213488/original/file-20180405-189816-8u8lgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People are bad at weighing risk, which is why so many Americans don't get flu shots. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/David Goldman</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is an uncertain and risky place. The news constantly bombards us with scary situations from <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/02/19/parkland-school-shootings-not-new-normal-despite-statistics-stretching-truth-fox-column/349380002/">school shootings</a> to gruesome murders. </p>
<p>Risk is everywhere and associated with everything. For example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention a decade ago estimated 234,000 people a year <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6022a1.htm">ended up in emergency rooms because of bathroom injuries</a> alone. </p>
<p>While this figure is shockingly high, it probably won’t prevent you from using the toilet or washing your hands. And in general, <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/581926/Injury-sustained-bedroom-alone-statistics">hiding under the bed to avoid risky</a> decisions is not a realistic option for living life.</p>
<p>In part, that’s because we’re all risk analysts, continually weighing the costs and benefits of every decision we make. The problem is, most of us aren’t actually that good at it. As an economist, I thought it would be interesting to explore how we weigh risk in our daily lives – and how we might be able to do it more accurately.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213489/original/file-20180405-189824-b64on8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Choosing to cross the street when the sign says ‘don’t walk’ is an example of a risky decision that could have fatal consequences.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrey Bayda/Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expected value</h2>
<p>We spend a great deal of time making decisions with at least a little risk involved. Some of them are relatively ho-hum, such as what to wear to work with a minor risk of a colleague wearing the same outfit, while others are potentially fatal, such as whether to sprint across the street when the sign says “don’t walk.” </p>
<p>Part of evaluating each risky situation is knowing how likely it is that something will happen. It is also just as important to know the cost if something goes wrong or the payoff if something goes well. </p>
<p>Scholars call the odds of something happening multiplied by the cost or payoff the “expected value” of a situation. This explains, for example, why so <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2015/06/its-shockingly-common-for-new-yorkers-to-blow-through-red-lights/395222/">many people run red lights</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437599000249">Speeding through a red</a> is <a href="https://www.drivinglaws.org/resources/red-light-stop-sign-violations-state-laws.htm">a US$500 ticket</a> in California and Maryland, which is about the most of any state in the country. Let’s assume the police stop and ticket one out of every thousand cars that run a red. This means the odds of being stopped are 0.1 percent.</p>
<p>The expected value of running a red is the 0.1 percent probability times the $500 cost, or 50 cents. Even though most people haven’t done the math, one reason so many drivers speed up when the traffic light turns yellow is because intuitively they know the expected cost of breaking the law is very low – and in their mind the value of getting to their office or appointment is much higher.</p>
<p>The problem is people aren’t very good at estimating the two variables required to get an expected value.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213490/original/file-20180405-95689-1frt4fg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people fear flying despite the extreme low probability of crashing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Milkovasa/Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Calculating the odds</h2>
<p>Part of expected value is understanding the probability or odds of a situation. </p>
<p>Probability is the chance something will happen and is simply a number from zero percent – an impossibility – to 100 percent – a sure thing. No matter how many times a coach screams at a player to give 110 percent, this figure is outside the realm of possibility.</p>
<p>Expected value requires estimating the odds that something might occur. However, when behavioral science pioneers <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-two-friends-who-changed-how-we-think-about-how-we-think">Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky</a> studied how humans actually estimate probabilities they found people have <a href="http://bigthink.com/artful-choice/how-do-we-deal-with-rare-events-a-postmortem-of-the-week-that-shook-and-stormed-the-east-coast">poor judgment calculating actual probabilities</a>. In general, humans overstate the likelihood of rare events occurring, underestimate the chance common events will happen, and overvalue certainty.</p>
<p>For example, many people are <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/why-fear-of-flying-is-just-plane-stupid-1770229.html">terrified about flying on planes</a> because of the possibility the one they’re on might crash. However, the actual chance of <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-aviation-safety-20180102-story.html">someone dying in a commercial airline crash</a> is very close to zero. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the flu is very common. Every year <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/23/flu-cases-fall-for-the-first-time-this-awful-influenza-season">millions of people get the flu</a> and <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/02/10/american-flu-deaths/">thousands even die from it</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, many people do <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1516estimates.htm">not get a flu shot</a> – almost 60 percent of adults and 40 percent of children in recent years – because they don’t think they will get the flu. </p>
<h2>The cost or payoff</h2>
<p>The cost or the payoff is the other part of expected value. One problem is the cost or payoff isn’t always as obvious as in the case of a speeding ticket, and sometimes assigning a dollar value can be complicated.</p>
<p>Kahneman and Tversky also found that people feel more pain from a loss than pleasure from a similar-sized dollar gain. Being forced to pay a $500 fine for running a red light makes people suffer more mental anguish than the happiness they would get from winning $500 for being randomly rewarded for stopping when a traffic light turned red.</p>
<p>The particular pain from having money taken away is called <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-loss-aversion/">loss aversion</a>. Because people loathe or hate losses they often buy insurance. Having insurance means giving up a small certain payment today to ensure a large uncertain payment won’t be required in the future.</p>
<p>It also helps explain why many people are terrified of flying. Most people would give all of their money to avoid the pain of <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/how-risky-is-flying.html">dying in a plane crash</a>. Even if the actual chances are quite small, some people believe a fiery airplane death is one of the most painful ways to die.</p>
<p>Kahneman and Tversky created a new model called “<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185">prospect theory</a>,” which is more sophisticated than the expected value model. Prospect theory combines the ideas of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/financialfinesse/2016/09/18/dont-let-loss-aversion-lead-to-an-even-more-costly-decision/">loss aversion</a> and over and underweighing odds to help people calculate the expected value of an impending decision that matches how people actually think.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213491/original/file-20180405-189795-37mhb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For most of us, spending our lives under our beds is not an option.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suzanne Tucker/Shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A risky world</h2>
<p>Risk is an inherent part of our lives. There is almost nothing we can do to make the world a more certain place. We all have to cross streets, and many of us have to fly in planes or drive cars.</p>
<p>However, when faced with a risky choice, you need to think not only about the odds but also the cost or payoff. It is less important whether you use the simpler expected value model or take into account our human quirks and use <a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/prospect.htm">prospect theory</a>.</p>
<p>What really matters for making better choices is to understand that risk is more than just the chance something will occur.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the number of estimated unintentional bathroom injuries.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People have to make countless decisions on a daily basis that involve some degree of risk, from boarding a plane to crossing the street. The trouble is most of us don’t weigh risk well.Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.