tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/satellite-data-67468/articlesSatellite data – The Conversation2024-03-27T01:49:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266212024-03-27T01:49:55Z2024-03-27T01:49:55ZAustralia just committed $207 million to a major satellite program. What is it, and why do we need it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584628/original/file-20240327-26-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3104%2C6162%2C4601&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Landsat image of Lake Torrens, South Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150566/lake-torrens-is-a-lake-again">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, the federal minister for Resources and Northern Australia, Madeleine King, <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/usgs-and-australia-continue-partnership-landsat-next-satellite-mission">signed a A$207 million commitment with the United States</a> in support of “Landsat Next”.</p>
<p>Aptly named, this is the next generation of an Earth observation satellite program from which Australia has benefited for <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/news/40-years-of-landsat-in-australia">over 40 years</a>.</p>
<p>The commitment means we will make a critical contribution to global Earth observation efforts with our cutting-edge data management. In essence, we will be the custodians of data downloaded from new Landsat satellites – a major role. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/landsat-turns-50-how-satellites-revolutionized-the-way-we-see-and-protect-the-natural-world-186986">Landsat turns 50: How satellites revolutionized the way we see – and protect – the natural world</a>
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<h2>What is Earth observation?</h2>
<p>Earth observation satellites provide the world with more than half of all climate change data – and some of that data can come from nowhere else but space. They also provide over 90% of weather data, which the Bureau of Meteorology uses to give us our daily forecasts. </p>
<p>In Australia, Earth observation data <a href="https://www.spacegovcentre.org/_files/ugd/cd297f_ae32824561374ea0982b562ff8332507.pdf">is also critical for supporting</a> agriculture, fisheries, mining, land and <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2018/april/satellite-water-monitoring">water policies</a>, bushfire response, and national security needs. In 2020, the economic benefits of Earth observation data were estimated at over <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/perspectives/economics-earth-observation.html">A$2.4 billion</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584626/original/file-20240327-18-vxzw2z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Arrernte artwork by Roseanne Kemarre Ellis, Caterpillar Tracks, on a satellite antenna at the Alice Springs Ground Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/aboriginal-art-satellite-dish">USGS</a></span>
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<p>Furthermore, such data brings immense benefits to First Nations people, particularly in northern Australia. Indigenous rangers use Earth observation data to augment their traditional land and water management practices.</p>
<p>Importantly, Geoscience Australia and CSIRO work closely with the <a href="https://cfat.org.au/cfat-se">Centre for Appropriate Technology</a>, an Indigenous business in Alice Springs. This business owns a satellite dish that receives data from Landsat and other Earth observation satellites.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/painting-with-fire-how-northern-australia-developed-one-of-the-worlds-best-bushfire-management-programs-205113">‘Painting with fire’: how northern Australia developed one of the world’s best bushfire management programs</a>
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<h2>What is Landsat?</h2>
<p>Landsat is a program led by NASA and the US Geological Survey. <a href="https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/">For more than 50 years</a> it has provided the “longest continuous space-based record of Earth’s land in existence”.</p>
<p>This means since 1972 we’ve had continuous data on ice melts, weather and temperature changes, and changes in the planet’s landscapes and freshwater sources.</p>
<p>Australia has been a Landsat beneficiary and partner since the early 1970s. Just earlier this year, emergency services in Queensland facing Cyclone Kirilly depended on Landsat data to <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8564305/australia-continues-partnership-in-satellite-program/">help mitigate potential flooding</a>. Geoscience Australia has also used Landsat data gathered over decades to <a href="https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/article/shifting-shores-of-the-australian-continent-mapped-with-landsat/">map changes in Australia’s shorelines</a>.</p>
<p>And during the Black Summer megafires of 2019–20, the worst bushfire season New South Wales has ever recorded, <a href="https://www.dea.ga.gov.au/article/landsat-black-summer">Landsat images were critical</a> in predicting where the bushfires would be worst, and assisting in real-time response. </p>
<p>The new agreement places us at the centre of data management for the next generation of Landsat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-made-bushfire-maps-from-satellite-data-and-found-a-glaring-gap-in-australias-preparedness-132087">I made bushfire maps from satellite data, and found a glaring gap in Australia's preparedness</a>
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<h2>What is Landsat Next?</h2>
<p>There have been nine Landsat satellites since 1972, of which eight are operational today. Landsat Next will add three more satellites to this, with new capabilities. As a result, we will get more data more often, and at a higher resolution.</p>
<p>Landsat Next will significantly improve image resolution of some of the original satellites. This means, for example, that 40% more detail can be captured for agricultural sowing, irrigation and harvesting needs.</p>
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<span class="caption">The Great Barrier Reef imaged by Landsat in 1999.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/3270/great-barrier-reef">NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
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<p>The current Landsat satellites cover 11 spectral bands. These are wavelengths of light captured by satellite sensors, ranging from visible light which we can see with the naked eye to invisible wavelengths like infrared and ultraviolet.</p>
<p>Landsat Next will increase this to up to 26 bands, which makes it possible to track water quality at much greater accuracy. This is helpful, for example, in detecting harmful algal blooms.</p>
<p>Landsat satellites also sense thermal bands. This is a measurement of surface temperatures so we can understand soil health and water levels, and track bushfires.</p>
<p>Landsat Next will improve the resolution of temperature measurements, providing improved climate change data and more accurate information for farmers and sustainable urban planning.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/landsat-zooms-in-on-cities-hottest-neighborhoods-to-help-combat-the-urban-heat-island-effect-182925">Landsat zooms in on cities' hottest neighborhoods to help combat the urban heat island effect</a>
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<h2>Australia is great at satellite data</h2>
<p>The new commitment builds on what Australia already does, and is really good at – the ground and data segments of Earth observation satellite systems. In fact, we are a <a href="https://www.space.gov.au/about-agency/publications/earth-observation-space-roadmap">world leader in Earth observation data management</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6m8_2u91hA">We have excellent geography</a> for collecting data from the satellites via large satellite dishes in Alice Springs. We also have a longstanding tradition of being the data custodians and stewards for our US and European partners.</p>
<p>The Landsat Next agreement fulfils one aspect of the planned <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/News/2022/March/National-Space-Mission-for-Earth-Observation">National Space Mission for Earth Observation</a> (NSMEO) which was cancelled last year due to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-29/labor-axes-morrison-government-satellite-program/102538686">major budget cuts</a>. This was a disappointment to many people in Australia, and to our international partners.</p>
<p>This new commitment to Landsat Next puts in place part of what we were already planning to do through the NSMEO, and will make us a more important partner in global Earth observation infrastructure.</p>
<p>With our unique geography, Australia is a heavy user of Earth observation data, and this agreement means we can be bigger contributors, as well.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-first-ever-survey-on-australian-attitudes-towards-space-is-out-so-what-do-we-think-219813">The first-ever survey on Australian attitudes towards space is out. So, what do we think?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cassandra Steer receives funding from Geoscience Australia and the Department of Defence. In the past she has received funding from the Australian Space Agency, DFAT, the Canadian Department of National Defence, the US Department of State, and the US Department of Defense.</span></em></p>Without satellites, we wouldn’t have much of the Earth and climate data we have today. And Australia is a world leader in satellite data.Cassandra Steer, Deputy Director, Institute for Space (InSpace), Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246072024-03-06T19:07:52Z2024-03-06T19:07:52ZSharks, turtles and other sea creatures face greater risk from industrial fishing than previously thought − we estimated added pressure from ‘dark’ fishing vessels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580177/original/file-20240306-22-3smwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C2977%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seabirds like this sooty shearwater can drown when they become tangled in drift nets and other fishing gear. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/dj3H6v"> Roy Lowe, USFWS/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>My colleagues and I mapped activity in the northeast Pacific of “dark” fishing vessels – boats that turn off their location devices or lose signal for technical reasons. In <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl5528">our new study</a>, we found that highly mobile marine predators, such as sea lions, sharks and leatherback sea turtles, are significantly <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2019/03/13/tunas-sharks-ships-sea/">more threatened than previously thought</a> because of large numbers of dark fishing vessels operating where these species live. </p>
<p>While we couldn’t directly watch the activities of each of these dark vessels, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/at-least-6-percent-global-fishing-likely-as-ships-turn-off-tracking-devices-study">new technological advances</a>, including satellite data and machine learning, make it possible to estimate where they go when they are not broadcasting their locations. </p>
<p>Examining five years of data from fishing vessel location devices and the habitats of 14 large marine species, including seabirds, sharks, turtles, sea lions and tunas, we found that our estimates of risk to these animals increased by nearly 25% when we accounted for the presence of dark vessels. For some individual predators, such as albacore and bluefin tunas, this adjustment increased risk by over 36%. The main hot spots were in the Bering Sea and along the Pacific coast of North America. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bjFSgr_B38I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bycatch, or accidental take, is the leading threat to some endangered marine species.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How we did our work</h2>
<p>Fishing boats use <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/faqs/what-is-ais/">Automatic Identification System</a>, or AIS, to avoid colliding with each other. Their AIS signals bounce off satellites to reach nearby ships. </p>
<p>This data is a valuable tool for <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/study-choosing-fish-may-be-killing-sharks/">mapping risk at sea</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43169824">understanding the footprints of fishing fleets</a>. AIS data captures an estimated <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aao564">50% to 80%</a> of fishing operations occurring more than 100 nautical miles from shore.</p>
<p>But in some areas, vessels’ AIS signals can’t reach the satellites, either because reception is poor or many boats are crowded together – much as cellphones can have difficulty sending text messages in remote wildness or in crowded stadiums. And just as location tracking can be disabled on phones, fishing vessels can intentionally <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-fishing-boats-go-dark-at-sea-theyre-often-committing-crimes-we-mapped-where-it-happens-196694">disable their AIS</a> if they want to hide their location. Boats that do this may be engaged in criminal activities, such as <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/538736/the-outlaw-ocean-by-ian-urbina/">illegal fishing or human trafficking</a>.</p>
<p>We calculated how much risk dark vessels pose to marine life by overlapping their activity with the modeled habitats of 14 highly mobile marine predators. Using the same method, we also calculated how much risk observable fishing vessels that broadcast their locations pose to marine life. These two calculations allowed us to understand the additional risk from dark fishing vessels.</p>
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<span class="caption">A Hawaiian monk seal entangled on a large fishing float.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photolib.noaa.gov/Collections/Fisheries/Other/emodule/1054/eitem/61324">Doug Helton, NOAA/NOS/ORR/ERD</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>We know that many sea creatures, including endangered species, are <a href="https://www.msc.org/en-us/what-we-are-doing/oceans-at-risk/overfishing">killed by overfishing</a>, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-welch-sea-turtles-swordfish-climate-change-20190610-story.html">accidental catch</a> and <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-coast/marine-mammal-protection/west-coast-large-whale-entanglement-response-program">entanglement in fishing gear</a>. More overlap between wildlife and fishing boats means that those harmful impacts are more likely to happen. </p>
<p>Even considering only <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/map/index?start=2023-11-25T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&end=2024-02-25T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&latitude=19&longitude=26&zoom=1.5">observable fishing boats broadcasting their positions</a>, the presence of boats signals considerable risk for marine life. For example, <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/california-sea-lion">California sea lions</a> forage in Pacific coastal waters from the Canadian border to Baja California and are accidentally caught by boats fishing for hake and halibut. We found observable fishing activity in over 45% of the sea lions’ habitat. </p>
<p>In another example, migratory <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=salmonshark.main">salmon sharks</a> feed on salmon near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands during the summer and breed in warmer waters off the coasts of Oregon and California during the winter. Along their journey, salmon sharks are accidentally caught in fishing nets and longlines. We detected observable vessel fishing activity in nearly one-third of salmon shark habitat. </p>
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<span class="caption">Fishing boats head out for the East China Sea in Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fishing-boats-set-sail-in-the-morning-to-east-china-sea-for-news-photo/1340823231">Shen Lei/VCG via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Our findings indicate that such threats are higher when dark fishing boats are present. Estimates of risk to California sea lions and salmon sharks increased by 28% and 23%, respectively, when we accounted for dark vessels.</p>
<p>This information could affect fishery regulation. For example, regulators <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/fish-stock-assessment-101-part-2-closer-look-stock-assessment-models">use risk information</a> to set catch limits for species such as tuna; higher risk could mean that catch limits need to be lower. </p>
<p>For species such as sea lions and salmon sharks that are accidentally caught by fishermen, higher risk levels could indicate that fishing boats should use more selective gear. California is currently acting on this issue by helping fishermen phase out use of <a href="https://opc.ca.gov/2022/11/phase-out-drift-gillnets/">large-mesh drift gill nets</a> in state waters. These nets, which hang like curtains in the water, catch <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/T0502E/T0502E01.htm">many other fishes along with the target species</a>. </p>
<p>Accounting for dark vessels is particularly important in international waters where boats from multiple countries operate, because AIS data is one of the most complete sources of fishing activity across nations. Tracking dark vessels can help make this information as comprehensive as possible and provide insights into the multinational impacts of fishing. </p>
<p>Our study does not account for vessels that do not use any vessel tracking system, or that use systems other than AIS. Therefore, our risk calculations likely still underestimate the true impact of fisheries on marine predators. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>The world’s oceans are rich in life but poor in data, although this is changing. High-resolution <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/satellite-maps-reveal-rampant-fishing-untracked-dark-vessels-oceans-180983539/">satellite imagery</a> may soon offer even more information on risk from dark vessels. </p>
<p>President Joe Biden and other global leaders have pledged to protect <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-new-action-to-conserve-and-restore-americas-lands-and-waters/">30% of the ocean by 2030</a>. Better data on human-wildlife interactions at sea can help ensure that new protected areas are in the right places to make a difference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heather Welch receives funding from NOAA's Office of Law Enforcement. </span></em></p>The toll on wildlife from illegal fishing, bycatch and entanglement in fishing gear is likely underestimated, because it doesn’t account for ‘dark’ fishing vessels, a new study finds.Heather Welch, Researcher in Ecosystem Dynamics, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233222024-02-14T03:56:08Z2024-02-14T03:56:08ZThe world’s coral reefs are bigger than we thought – but it took satellites, snorkels and machine learning to see them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575519/original/file-20240214-20-mjiqz2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4607%2C2592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-great-barrier-reef-whitsundays-1496224889">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s coral reefs are close to 25% larger than we thought. By using satellite images, machine learning and on-ground knowledge from a global network of people living and working on coral reefs, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949790624000016?via%3Dihub">we found</a> an extra 64,000 square kilometres of coral reefs – an area the size of Ireland. </p>
<p>That brings the total size of the planet’s shallow reefs (meaning 0-20 metres deep) to 348,000 square kilometres – the size of Germany. This figure represents whole coral reef ecosystems, ranging from sandy-bottomed lagoons with a little coral, to coral rubble flats, to living walls of coral. </p>
<p>Within this 348,000 km² of coral is 80,000 km² where there’s a hard bottom – rocks rather than sand. These areas are likely to be home to significant amounts of coral – the places snorkellers and scuba divers most like to visit. </p>
<p>You might wonder why we’re finding this out now. Didn’t we already know where the world’s reefs are? </p>
<p>Previously, we’ve had to pull data from many different sources, which made it harder to pin down the extent of coral reefs with certainty. But now we have high resolution satellite data covering the entire world – and are able to see reefs as deep as 30 metres down. </p>
<p>We coupled this with direct observations and records of coral reefs from over <a href="https://allencoralatlas.org/attribution">400 individuals and organisations</a> in countries with coral reefs from all regions, such as the Maldives, Cuba and Australia. </p>
<p>To produce the maps, we used machine learning techniques to chew through 100 trillion pixels from the Sentinel-2 and Planet Dove CubeSat satellites to make accurate predictions about where coral is – and is not. The team worked with almost 500 researchers and collaborators to make the maps. </p>
<p>The result: the world’s first comprehensive map of coral reefs extent, and their composition, produced through the <a href="https://allencoralatlas.org/">Allen Coral Atlas</a>. </p>
<p>The maps are already proving their worth. Reef management agencies around the world are using them to plan and assess conservation work and threats to reefs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Researcher towing a GPS on Great Barrier Reef during an expedition." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575477/original/file-20240213-26-wxc8ic.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We combined satellite data with real world observations. Here, Dr Eva Kovacs tows a GPS on the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://allencoralatlas.org/blog/meet-the-team-university-of-queensland/">Allan Coral Atlas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where is this hidden coral?</h2>
<p>You can see the difference for yourself. In the interactive slider below, red indicates the newly detected coral in reefs off far north Queensland. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1015" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1015/df887cb0211a347030b52f7e8261bcacbc7e9463/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>This infographic shows the new detail we now have for the Tongue Reef, in the seas off Port Douglas in Far North Queensland. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1017" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1017/21ab9e743c8e2a3a716df327b0946c4bf8e47468/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Our maps have three levels of detail. The first is the most expansive – the entire coral reef ecosystem. Seen from space, it has light areas of coral fringed by darker deeper water. </p>
<p>Then we have geomorphic detail, meaning what the areas within the reef look like. This includes sandy lagoons, reef crests exposed to the air at low tide, sloping areas going into deeper water and so on.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1016" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1016/ba3212ee64a358a16ca6b5ccfb454b415a72afe1/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>And finally we have fine detail of the benthic substrates, showing where you have areas dominated by coral cover. </p>
<p>Coral can’t grow on sand. Polyps have to attach to a hard surface such as rock before they can begin expanding the reef out of their limestone-secreting bodies. </p>
<p>Some of our maps include fine detail of benthic substrates, meaning where coral is most likely to be and the substrates (seafloor) available to the polyps, such as existing coral, sand, rubble, or seagrass. </p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16796582/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/16796582/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/16796582" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"></a></div>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16784641/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/16784641/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/16784641" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"></a></div>
<p>It’s a crucial time for the world’s coral reefs. We’re discovering the full extent of shallow water reefs – while other researchers are finding large new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/19/deep-sea-coral-reef-atlantic-coast">black coral reefs</a> in deeper water. </p>
<p>But even as we make these discoveries, coral reefs are reeling. Climate change is steadily heating up the sea and making it more acidic. Coral polyps can’t <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-heroic-effort-to-save-floridas-coral-reef-from-extreme-ocean-heat-as-corals-bleach-across-the-caribbean-210974">handle too much heat</a>. These wonders of biodiversity are home to a quarter of the ocean’s species.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scientist doing coral reef research." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575481/original/file-20240213-20-h7bnsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Making these maps took plenty of underwater research as well as satellite data. This photo shows Dr Chris Roelfsema conducting a photo transect in a remote area of the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://allencoralatlas.org/blog/new-funds-for-coral-reef-field-engagement/">Allen Coral Atlas</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In good news, these maps are already leading to real world change. We’ve already seen new efforts to conserve coral reefs in Indonesia, several Pacific island nations, Panama, Belize, Kenya and Australia, among others. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-coral-reefs-thrive-in-parts-of-the-ocean-that-are-low-in-nutrients-by-eating-their-algal-companions-212049">How do coral reefs thrive in parts of the ocean that are low in nutrients? By eating their algal companions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223322/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mitchell Lyons receives funding from Australian Research Council and Australian Commonwealth Government. Mitchell Lyons works for the University of Queensland and the University of New South Wales. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Phinn receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Queensland and New South Wales state governments, Geoscience Australia and other Commonwealth agencies, and SmartSAT CRC. He works for the University of Queensland and was the founding director of Earth Observation Australia and Australia's Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). </span></em></p>Our new maps show coral reefs are more extensive than we thought.Mitchell Lyons, Postdoctoral research fellow, The University of QueenslandStuart Phinn, Professor of Geography, Director - Remote Sensing Research Centre, Chair - Earth Observation Australia, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166432023-11-13T19:46:13Z2023-11-13T19:46:13ZFire is consuming more than ever of the world’s forests, threatening supplies of wood and paper<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558977/original/file-20231112-27-mgtyva.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C11%2C3843%2C2573&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Lindenmayer</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A third of the world’s forests are cut for timber. This generates <a href="https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9360en">US$1.5 trillion annually</a>. But
wildfire threatens industries such as timber milling and paper manufacturing, and the threat is far greater than most people realise.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01323-y">Our research</a>, published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows that between 2001 and 2021, severe wildfires worldwide destroyed timber-producing forests equivalent to an area the size of Great Britain. Severe fires reach the tree tops and consume the forest canopy.</p>
<p>The amount of timber-producing forest burning each year in severe wildfires has increased significantly in the past decade. The western United States, Canada, Siberia, Brazil and Australia have been most affected.</p>
<p>Timber demand is expected to almost triple by 2050. Supplying demand is clearly going to be challenging. Our research highlights the need to urgently adopt new management strategies and emerging technologies to combat the increasing threat of wildfires.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-planet-is-burning-in-unexpected-ways-heres-how-we-can-protect-people-and-nature-213215">Our planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>We combined global maps of logging activity and severe wildfires to determine how much timber-producing forest was lost to wildfire this century. Between 2001 and 2021, up to 25 million hectares of timber-producing forest was severely burned. The extent of fire has jumped markedly in the past decade, from an average of less than one million hectares a year up to 2015 to triple that since then. </p>
<p>At a national scale, the three countries with the largest absolute wildfire-induced losses of timber-producing forest were Russia, the US and Canada. When it comes to proportion of their forestry land lost, the nations with the highest percentages burnt were Portugal, followed by Australia. </p>
<h2>Why are more forests burning?</h2>
<p>Climate change is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-40">major driver of fire weather and fire behaviour</a>. The increased risk of high-severity wildfire is an entirely expected outcome of warmer temperatures and, in some places, reduced rainfall. </p>
<p>However, it remains unclear why so much wood-production forest is being lost, and why the increase in burnt area has been so marked in the past decade. </p>
<p>One possible reason is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12122">logging makes forests more flammable</a>. This has been documented in parts of southeastern Australia, where intact forest always <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01717-y">burnt at lower severity than harvested forest</a> across the entire footprint of the Black Summer fires. Forests that have been subject to thinning also are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13096">at risk of high-severity wildfire</a>. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for us?</h2>
<p>Whatever the reason, it is clear these fires in wood-production forests will have profound impacts on global timber supplies and all the industries associated with them. This is a huge problem for society and the environment, because timber demand is expected to triple by 2050, in part to facilitate the transition away from carbon-intensive cement in construction. </p>
<p>In many parts of the world, it typically takes 80–100 years or even longer to grow a tree to a size at which it can be a sawlog for products like furniture and floorboards. So the increased frequency of high-severity wildfire means fewer areas of forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20129">will escape fire for long enough</a> to reach timber harvesting age. </p>
<p>This is especially problematic where logging makes forests more prone to burning in a high-severity wildfire.</p>
<p>Furthermore, given the long-term nature of timber production, typically on cutting cycles ranging from 40 years to more than a century, future timber crops will face a very different climate as they mature. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo of a timber production forest that has been burnt" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558979/original/file-20231112-17-1qsmgm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Timber production forests such as this, near Marysville in Victoria, are burning before they reach maturity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Lindenmayer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-tasmania-and-victoria-dominate-the-list-of-australias-largest-trees-and-why-these-majestic-giants-are-under-threat-200276">Why Tasmania and Victoria dominate the list of Australia's largest trees – and why these majestic giants are under threat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Responding to the challenge</h2>
<p>If wood production from forests becomes increasing costly and timber is increasingly hard to source, there may be more pressure from industry and government to log other places, such as tropical forests, with high biodiversity and conservation value. </p>
<p>One way to tackle the problem is to grow more timber in plantations. Plantations already produce <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112722006351">a third of the main forms of wood-producing timber</a> – called industrial roundwood. They do this from just 3% of the area of natural forests. </p>
<p>Well managed plantations can grow a successful timber crop within a couple of decades. This is a lot shorter than the many decades and sometimes even centuries required to grow sawlogs in native forests. Having a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120641">shorter growing time in plantations</a> increases the chances of harvesting trees before they are destroyed in a wildfire. </p>
<p>But plantations, like some logged and regenerated native forests, can be highly flammable. Fire risks need to be carefully managed. That includes planning, to avoid putting neighbouring areas and human communities at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120641">greater risk of being burnt</a>. </p>
<p>Another key strategy to better protect timber resources will be to adopt new technologies to more quickly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">detect and then rapidly suppress ignitions</a> such as those originating from lightning strikes. </p>
<p>Big fires start as small fires. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/forsci.10-096">best time to suppress fires is when they are small</a>, and as soon as ignition occurs. We have been involved in the development of drone fleets and unmanned aerial water and fire suppressant dispensing craft to more quickly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">detect and extinguish wildfires</a>. </p>
<p>New technologies, as well as more, better planned and managed plantations will be crucial in not only protecting forests, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade4721">safeguarding the flow of marketable timber</a> and the industries dependent upon them. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-climate-change-is-bringing-bushfires-more-often-but-some-ecosystems-in-australia-are-suffering-the-most-211683">Yes, climate change is bringing bushfires more often. But some ecosystems in Australia are suffering the most</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor in the Biodiversity Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Bousfield received funding for this research from the Natural Environment Research Council, UK.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Satellite data shows wildfires are destroying large areas of timber-producing forests around the world. These fires are becoming more destructive with each passing year.David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityChris Bousfield, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of CambridgeDavid Edwards, Professor, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135902023-10-25T10:49:23Z2023-10-25T10:49:23ZHow climate change is affecting the seasons<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555566/original/file-20231024-29-a074ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C3686%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-autumnal-scenery-tree-tunnel-regents-747085630">I Wei Huang/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Autumn has finally arrived in the UK following an <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_05_september_heatwave.pdf">unusually sunny September</a>. The days are growing shorter, the temperature cooler, and the leaves are changing colour. </p>
<p>The delayed onset of autumn in 2023 is not a one off. It’s actually part of a broader trend in which the shift from summer to winter is happening later in the year. My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259844410_C_Jeganathan_J_Dash_and_PM_Atkinson_2014_Remotely_sensed_trends_in_the_phenology_of_northern_high_latitude_terrestrial_vegetation_controlling_for_land_cover_change_and_vegetation_type_Remote_Sensing_o">own research</a> that I’ve carried out over the past 13 years points towards climate change as the likely culprit.</p>
<p>One of the most noticeable effects of climate change is the changing patterns of vegetation seasonality around us. This includes the timing of important biological events such as bud burst, the appearance of the first leaves, flowering and leaf fall.</p>
<p>In general, the appearance of the first leaf marks the arrival of spring, while leaf fall signals the beginning of autumn. The timing of these events is changing, particularly in the northern hemisphere, where spring appears to be starting earlier and autumn’s onset is being delayed.</p>
<p>Traditionally, monitoring vegetation seasonality involved meticulously documenting these seasonal events year after year. The earliest records of spring events in the UK date back to 1736, when naturalist <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/phenology#:%7E:text=Robert%20Marsham%E2%80%99s%20observations">Robert Marsham</a> began recording the timing of spring events in Norwich, England. </p>
<p>Today, satellite data has become an essential tool for tracking changes in vegetation seasonality. This data can be used to estimate vegetation vigour (an indicator of vegetation’s condition, strength and lushness). Changes can then be used to identify the start and end of each growing season.</p>
<h2>Longer growing seasons</h2>
<p>Climate researchers now have nearly five decades of satellite observations at their disposal. Analysis of this data reveals that spring has advanced by approximately 15 days, while autumn has been delayed by a similar amount. The overall outcome has been the extension of the growing season by an entire month over the past three decades.</p>
<p>The shift in the timing of the seasons is particularly pronounced at higher latitudes. Vegetation situated more than 55° north of the equator, such as in the larch forests of northern Russia, has shown a trend towards an extended growing season, increasing by up to one day per year.</p>
<p>A longer growing season is not necessarily a bad thing. It means a longer period of photosynthesis, which theoretically could boost <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/carbon-sequestration">net carbon uptake</a> – although there is <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JG006900">no concrete evidence</a> for this yet.</p>
<p>But an earlier onset of the growing season exposes plants to the risk of damage from spring frosts and an increased vulnerability to summer drought. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba2724">Research</a> has found that an early spring in central and northern Europe in 2018 promoted increased vegetation growth. This, in turn, contributed to soil losing its moisture quickly, amplifying summer drought conditions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A view of a coniferous forest with a sea bay and hills in the distance." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555571/original/file-20231024-29-9r2jaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The shift in the timing of the seasons is particularly pronounced at higher latitudes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-autumn-landscape-view-larch-trees-2207472441">Andrei Stepanov/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Role of climate change</h2>
<p>Temperature is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3277">one of the primary factors</a> influencing vegetation growth at high northerly latitudes. So, an earlier onset of spring and a later arrival of autumn are probably driven by the rising global mean temperature. Since 1981, the global mean temperature has increased by <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">0.18°C per decade</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the influence of temperature on the duration of the growing season may change depending on the type of vegetation. In ecosystems primarily dominated by forests, a warmer climate <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JG006900">can lead to</a> more photosynthesis and increased vegetation productivity. </p>
<p>On the other hand, in a warmer climate, more water evaporates from the Earth’s surface, drying out the soil. This could adversely affect the growth of plants with shallow roots, such as grasses and herbaceous plants.</p>
<p>Another consequence of climate change is the increased frequency of droughts during the peak of the growing season. Drought conditions result in severe water stress for plants, leading to the premature shedding of leaves or a change in their colour, a phenomenon often referred to as a “false autumn”. </p>
<p>The UK <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62582186">experienced such conditions</a> in August 2022, when there was an early leaf fall and the browning of leaves, as the country grappled with an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/extreme-weather-warning-force-britain-new-heatwave-hits-2022-08-11/">extreme heatwave</a>.</p>
<p>A longer and drier growing season can also increase the risk of forest fires. A <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1128834">US study</a> from 2006 revealed a significant surge in wildfire activity within the forests of the northern Rockies from the mid-1980s. This change was closely linked to increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Yellow and orange maple leaves on the ground in the sunlight." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555574/original/file-20231024-21-pk0kuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trees sometimes shed their leaves early when under stress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/yellow-orange-maple-leaves-forest-on-1988839673">MVolodymyr/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Climate change is having a clear impact on vegetation growth and seasonality. But the extent and severity of its impact varies depending on the type of plant and where it grows.</p>
<p>The availability of satellite data spanning the past 50 years is a valuable resource for capturing changes in the duration of the vegetation growing season. This data is helping scientists quantify the scale and consequences of these changes, providing insights into how plants are responding to our warming climate.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jadu Dash does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Autumn is arriving later in the year – climate change is probably to blame.Jadu Dash, Professor of Remote Sensing in Geography and Environmental Science, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2132152023-09-14T23:05:59Z2023-09-14T23:05:59ZOur planet is burning in unexpected ways - here’s how we can protect people and nature<p>People have been using fire for millennia. It is a vital part of many ecosystems and cultures. Yet human activities in the current era, sometimes called the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-the-anthropocene-start-in-1950-or-much-earlier-heres-why-debate-over-our-world-changing-impact-matters-209869">Anthropocene</a>”, are reshaping patterns of fire across the planet.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">In our new research</a>, published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, we used satellite data to create global maps of where and how fires are burning. We calculated about 3.98 million square kilometres of Earth’s land surface burns each year. We also examined research spanning archaeology, climatology, ecology, Indigenous knowledge and paleoecology, to better understand the causes and consequences of fires.</p>
<p>Our international team found strong evidence fires are burning in unexpected places, at unusual times and in rarely observed ways. These changes in fire patterns are threatening human lives and modifying ecosystems.</p>
<p>But the future does not have to be bleak. There are many opportunities to apply knowledge and practice of fire to benefit people and nature.</p>
<h2>Here’s how fire patterns are changing</h2>
<p>Exploring multiple approaches and scales enables a deeper understanding of where, when and how fires burn.</p>
<p>Satellite data provide evidence of changes in fire patterns at a global scale. <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020RG000726">Annual fire season length</a> increased by 14 days from 1979 to 2020 and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04325-1">night fires</a>, which indicate fires that cannot be quickly controlled, increased in intensity by 7.2% from 2003 to 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An image showing a portion of the globe, as seen from space, showing bushfire smoke mixing into the atmosphere." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547993/original/file-20230913-19-hsuqm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The coupling of landscape fires with the atmosphere can create storms that inject smoke into the stratosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. Used with permission from David A. Peterson.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other changes are apparent only when we look at data from particular regions. An increase in fire size and the frequency of large fires has recently been observed in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2103135118">forests and woodlands of the western United States</a>. Meanwhile fire-dependent grasslands and savannahs across <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14711">Africa</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082327">Brazil</a> have experienced reductions in fire frequency.</p>
<p>It’s also important to consider the timescale and type of fire when interpreting changes. In Australia, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4">satellite records show</a> the frequency of very large forest fires has increased over the past four decades. At longer time scales, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-020-01339-3">charcoal and pollen records</a> indicate the frequency of low-intensity fires <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.2395">decreased in parts of southeastern Australia</a> following British colonisation in 1788.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-the-colonists-came-we-burned-small-and-burned-often-to-avoid-big-fires-its-time-to-relearn-cultural-burning-201475">Before the colonists came, we burned small and burned often to avoid big fires. It's time to relearn cultural burning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Changes in fire affect air, land and water</h2>
<p>Many animals and plants have evolved strategies that enable them to thrive under particular fire patterns. This means changes to fire characteristics can <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb0355">harm populations and ecosystems</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A closeup photo of epicormic growth in an Australian eucalypt. Small colourful leaves are sprouting from the trunk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547998/original/file-20230913-15-15pk1s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some eucalypts in southern Australia resprout after fire via epicormic buds along the trunk and branches. Resprouting influences how rapidly the tree layer, important habitat for animals, regenerates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas A. Fairman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12905">Large and intense fires</a> are reducing the available forest habitat preferred by the greater glider. But a <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-reveals-fire-is-pushing-88-of-australias-threatened-land-mammals-closer-to-extinction-185965">lack of fire can be problematic too</a>. Threatened species of native rodents can benefit from food resources and habitats that flourish shortly after fire.</p>
<p>There is evidence that emissions from recent fires are already modifying the atmosphere. The historically exceptional 2019–20 Australian wildfires produced <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe1415#:%7E:text=Intense%2C%20widespread%20bushfires%20in%20Australia,from%20a%20moderate%20volcanic%20eruption.">record-breaking levels of aerosols</a> over the Southern Hemisphere, as well as substantial carbon emissions.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00610-5">wildfire smoke-related health costs</a> of the 2019–20 wildfires in Australia included an estimated 429 smoke-related premature deaths as well as 3,230 hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.</p>
<p>Changes in fire patterns are modifying water cycles, too. In the western United States, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">fires are reaching higher elevations</a> and having strong impacts on <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200333119">snow</a> and water availability. </p>
<p>New studies are revealing how the air, land and water that support life on Earth are connected by fires. Smoke plumes from the 2019–20 Australian wildfires transported nutrients to the Southern Ocean, resulting in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03805-8">widespread phytoplankton blooms</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-yourself-against-bushfire-smoke-this-summer-154720">How to protect yourself against bushfire smoke this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Humans are responsible for the changes</h2>
<p>Human drivers such as climate change, land use, fire use and suppression, and transportation and extinction of species <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">are causing shifts in fire patterns</a>.</p>
<p>Increasing global temperatures and more frequent heatwaves and droughts increase the likelihood of fire by promoting hot, dry and windy conditions. A pattern of extreme fire weather outside of natural climate variation is already emerging in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15388">North America</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3">southern Europe</a> and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3a/meta">the Amazon basin</a>.</p>
<p>Humans modify fire regimes by changing land use for agricultural, forestry and urban purposes. Until recent decades, large fires in tropical forests were uncommon. But <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03876-7">deforestation fires</a> used to clear primary forest for agriculture often promotes more frequent and intense uncontrolled fires.</p>
<p>Humans have transported plants and animals across the globe, resulting in novel mixes of species that modify fuels and fire regimes. In many parts of the world, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1908253116">invasive grasses</a> have increased flammability and fire activity.</p>
<p>Social and economic changes propel these drivers. Colonisation by Europeans and the displacement of Indigenous peoples and their skilful use of fire has been linked with fire changes in <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.2395">Australia</a>, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116264119">North America</a> and <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0174">South America</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-rangers-are-burning-the-desert-the-right-way-to-stop-the-wrong-kind-of-intense-fires-from-raging-211900">Indigenous rangers are burning the desert the right way – to stop the wrong kind of intense fires from raging</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photograph of an experimental fire in temperate savannah in Minnesota, US, at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve. A low flame is visible on the right hand side of the smoky image." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548003/original/file-20230913-25-gqnccm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Experimental fires help us learn about ecosystems and sustainability. This is an experimental fire in temperate savannah in Minnesota, US, at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Frank Meuschke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Using knowledge and practice of fire to achieve sustainability goals</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">The pace and scale of these changes</a> represent challenges to humanity, but knowledge and practice of fire can help to achieve sustainability goals.</p>
<p>This includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0174">good health and wellbeing</a>, by supporting community-owned solutions and fire practices that increase social cohesion and health</li>
<li><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718314658">sustainable cities and communities</a>, by designing green firebreaks and mixed-use areas with low fuels, strategically located in the landscape</li>
<li><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam7672">life on land</a>,
by tailoring use of fire to promote and restore species and ecosystems</li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00867-1">climate action</a>,
by applying low-intensity fire to promote the stability of soil organic matter and increase carbon storage</li>
<li><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/8/3921">reduced inequalities</a>, by allocating resources before, during, and after wildfires to at-risk communities and residents.</li>
</ul>
<p>As the world changes, society as a whole needs to keep learning about the interplay between people and fire.</p>
<p>A deep understanding of fire is essential for achieving a sustainable future – in other words, <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-120220-055357">a better Anthropocene</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213215/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bowman receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ella Plumanns Pouton receives funding from the Australian Research Training Program, the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Williamson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and NSW Department of Planning and Environment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael-Shawn Fletcher receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>We used satellite data to create global maps of where and how fires are burning. Fire season lasts two weeks longer than it used to and fires are more intense. But there are regional differences.Luke Kelly, Associate Professor in Quantitative Ecology, The University of MelbourneDavid Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of TasmaniaElla Plumanns Pouton, PhD candidate, The University of MelbourneGrant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of TasmaniaMichael-Shawn Fletcher, Professor in Biogeography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051132023-05-21T20:00:24Z2023-05-21T20:00:24Z‘Painting with fire’: how northern Australia developed one of the world’s best bushfire management programs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526716/original/file-20230517-28-mjxdxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1824%2C1643&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite imagery shows how burnt areas in central Arnhem Land are lines carefully 'painted' across the landscape.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/">Sentinel Hub EO Browser</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Right now, hundreds of bushfires are burning across northern Australia. But this is not a wildfire catastrophe – in fact, these burns are making things safer in one of the most fire-prone landscapes in the world.</p>
<p>From April to June each year, fire managers – such as Traditional Owners, park rangers and pastoralists – aim to create small, “cool” fires with care and precision to reduce fuel loads before conditions get severe later in the dry season. This work, “painting” landscapes with fire, is constantly informed by satellite data.</p>
<p>The combination of space technology with Indigenous knowledge and the know-how of pastoralists and park rangers has been everyday practice across northern Australia for the past 20 years. Not only does this work produce some of the best fire management outcomes in the world, it also demonstrates how cutting-edge technology can inform local and traditional knowledge for environmental management.</p>
<h2>The satellite view</h2>
<p>In the early 2000s, researchers and land managers brought together by the <a href="https://www.eoas.info/biogs/A001949b.htm">Cooperative Research Centre for the Sustainable Development of Tropical Savannahs</a> realised satellite imagery could be of great help for fire management across Australia’s vast tropical savannas. </p>
<p>These landscapes have always been prone to fire. After First Nations people moved away (or were forced) from these areas over the course of the 20th century, savanna fires <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1890/120251">became more frequent and intense</a>.</p>
<p>Satellite imagery had long been used to understand the extent and severity of fires and other landscape-altering events. But researchers realised it could also be used to manage those fires – if up-to-date imagery could be provided to the public on a daily basis. </p>
<p>The result was regularly updated maps of recently burnt areas distributed via a website launched in 2003, hosted by Charles Darwin University – <a href="https://firenorth.org.au/">North Australian Fire Information</a> (NAFI).</p>
<p>Twenty years on, NAFI’s maps of active fires and burnt areas underpin fire management across northern Australia. The maps are used for planning, response, implementation, and reporting. </p>
<h2>Carbon credits and international attention</h2>
<p>NAFI’s fire information also informs the federal government’s calculations for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2012-11-02/indigenous-fire-project-to-earn-carbon-credits/6123622">carbon credits related to reduced savanna burning</a>, which many people across Australia’s north are using to generate income. Some of this income is then put back into work to reduce the extent and severity of fires. </p>
<p>NAFI fire data also inform the national <a href="https://afdrs.com.au/">Australian Fire Danger Rating System</a> so it can be more effectively applied by bushfire agencies in remote areas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">The world's best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it's led by Indigenous land managers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The same data have provided evidence showing north Australia has had <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-best-fire-management-system-is-in-northern-australia-and-its-led-by-indigenous-land-managers-133071">one of the most significant declines in fire</a> across any large landscape globally. </p>
<p>The successes of the NAFI service are drawing <a href="https://theconversation.com/fighting-fire-with-fire-botswana-adopts-indigenous-australians-ancient-burning-tradition-135363">international interest</a> as a model for fire information in other fire-susceptible regions around the world.</p>
<h2>Painting with fire</h2>
<p>Most Australians have a poor understanding of the history of fire on this continent. Fire has been a key human–ecological force that shaped landscapes over tens of thousands of years. </p>
<p>Over the past 20 years, <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-professional-fire-watchers-and-were-astounded-by-the-scale-of-fires-in-remote-australia-right-now-172773">proactive use of fire for landscape management</a> has been revived in northern Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-professional-fire-watchers-and-were-astounded-by-the-scale-of-fires-in-remote-australia-right-now-172773">We are professional fire watchers, and we're astounded by the scale of fires in remote Australia right now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The scale of the work undertaken by Northern fire managers, particularly at this time of year when fuel load reduction burns are underway, is easy to see on NAFI. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526703/original/file-20230517-21-qpi2sc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A snapshot from NAFI from 15 May 2023. Each coloured dot represents an active fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firenorth.org.au">NAFI</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Landscape-scale fire management, as applied in Northern Australia, is a sophisticated endeavour where science, technology and engineering support local knowledge. </p>
<h2>Beyond science and technology</h2>
<p>In a world rapidly being <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/east-kimberley-fire-forum-climate-change-impacts/101609248">transformed by climate change</a>, the skills required to make our societies sustainable and resilient involve more than just science and technology. Good environmental management will also require diverse, locally based skills and capacity to act.</p>
<p>Good fire management, as a case in point, requires an ability to blend skills and ways of thinking across multiple knowledge systems as well as a huge amount of hard work on the land.</p>
<p>Enabling easy, appropriately curated <a href="https://savannafiremapping.com/">access</a> to satellite-derived land information – and training to understand it – is critical. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/526707/original/file-20230517-28-1bru81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tiwi Rangers at a training session on using satellite data and digital mapping for fire management.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rohan Fisher</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>NAFI also develops and delivers training for land managers. Through workshops delivered across regional Australia, from remote Indigenous communities in the Kimberley and the top end to pastoralists in northern Queensland and central Australia, we are building high-tech capacity among those with the vital on-ground knowledge.</p>
<p>The journey of NAFI and fire management in northern Australia over the past 20 years illustrates how innovation is not just about technology, no matter how advanced. Innovation produces results when it is combined with other knowledge and put into the hands of the right people in the right way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205113/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rohan Fisher works for Charles Darwin University and has received federal funding to support the NAFI service. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Jacklyn works for Charles Darwin University and has received federal funding to support the NAFI service.</span></em></p>Satellite data and traditional know-how combined have drastically reduced fires across northern Australia over the past 20 years.Rohan Fisher, Information Technology for Development Researcher, Charles Darwin UniversityPeter Jacklyn, NAFI Service Manager and Knowledge and Adoption Coordinator, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2046792023-05-03T03:40:33Z2023-05-03T03:40:33ZIn a bad fire year, Australia records over 450,000 hotspots. These maps show where the risks have increased over 20 years<p>The bushfire outlook for many parts of Australia has changed drastically over the past decade. Environmental conditions have transformed, producing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">larger and more destructive bushfires</a>. </p>
<p>The frequency of bushfires that alter the atmospheric conditions around them has also increased. Nowhere was this more evident than during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">Black Summer bushfires</a> of 2019-2020. </p>
<p>As we continue to experience the effects of climate change, these environmental changes and destructive fire events will only become more prevalent.</p>
<p>Thanks to satellite imaging data collected over the past 20 years, we can map and quantify the region-by-region impact of climate change and how this has affected the prevalence of fire in different parts of Australia. With more accurate bushfire modelling, we can assist fire services and land managers to determine where they need to refocus their efforts as we adjust to the long haul of adaptation to climate change. </p>
<p>To this end, the maps in this article show where fires occurred in two consecutive decades, and show the changes between them. They also show regions where those changes exceed a threshold, indicating a significant increase in fire activity. This enables better-targeted fire risk management.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/200-experts-dissected-the-black-summer-bushfires-in-unprecedented-detail-here-are-6-lessons-to-heed-198989">200 experts dissected the Black Summer bushfires in unprecedented detail. Here are 6 lessons to heed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Two decades of satellite fire monitoring</h2>
<p>More than 20 years ago NASA launched two satellites, (<a href="https://terra.nasa.gov/">Terra</a> in 1999 and on <a href="https://aqua.nasa.gov/">Aqua</a> in 2002), to monitor the Earth’s surface with specialised sensors. One sensor, MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), was able to see both smoke plumes and the infrared signature of fires. An algorithm was developed to classify image pixels containing fire, producing a set of “<a href="https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/">hotspots</a>”. </p>
<p>Both satellites have lasted well beyond their planned mission durations. This is significant for fire managers, who now have two decades of continuous hotspot data.</p>
<h2>Mapping Australia’s fire hotspots</h2>
<p>For many years I have been analysing MODIS data from the perspective of <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2015/A4/mcrae.pdf">seasonality</a>. I have been looking at when fires occurred and whether that reflected expectations. The aim is to validate <a href="https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-autumn-2023">seasonal bushfire outlooks</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing peak seasons for fire activity around Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523732/original/file-20230502-1462-jmw3na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peak fire activity seasons for zones around Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author analysis of NASA data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The past 20 years of annual seasonality reviews are now available <a href="http://www.highfirerisk.com.au/hotspots/">online</a>. Each year the previous 12 months’ data were compared against those from a set time range or control period. This was a decade-long period covering a mix of El Niño and La Niña years, indicating “average” conditions. </p>
<p>Recently, we passed the end of the second decade of MODIS data. This opened the prospect of comparing two decades (starting in July 2002 and in July 2012) and looking for differences.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing ratio of hotspots in 2019-20 to the decade average for zones around Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523735/original/file-20230502-14-lf4u5l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ratio of hotspots in 2019-20 to the first decade average for zones around Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author analysis of NASA data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a year with a lot of fire, Australia creates more than 450,000 hotspots. This makes the 20 years of MODIS data an irreplaceable tool for seamless, quantitative assessments of fire dynamics across Australia. The datasets are freely available <a href="https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/">online</a> and have been used to create useful products to assist fire managers. </p>
<p>Several caveats apply to hotspot datasets. Low-intensity fires (especially well-planned, hazard-reduction burns), fires under heavy cloud cover, and fire runs that burn out quickly may not produce a hotspot. The latter was the case for many of the worst fire events during the Black Summer fires. </p>
<p>There is also no way to separate wildfire from planned fire. This has to be a goal, as both contribute to the fire regime but the balance varies a lot between regions. Future burn planning may become a major challenge as big wildfire events like Black Summer put much of the landscape into a single fire age. This makes burning difficult until the forest recovers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-management-in-australia-has-reached-a-crossroads-and-business-as-usual-wont-cut-it-174696">Fire management in Australia has reached a crossroads and 'business as usual' won’t cut it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To determine how fire activity had changed between the first and second decades of data, hotspots were aggregated into grid-cells. Each spanned half a degree of both latitude and longitude.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing hotspot counts for the first and second decade of the past 20 years" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523737/original/file-20230502-16-qw05ft.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hotspot count maps for decade one (left) and decade two (right). Larger symbols indicate higher counts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author analysis of NASA data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By comparing the number and ratio of hotspots in the grid-cell count from decade one to that from decade two, we could determine where fire frequency was changing the most.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of hotspot count ratios based on first and second decade of satellite data" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523961/original/file-20230503-26-i6veb9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hotspot count ratios from decade one to decade two, showing where fire activity has increased and decreased.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author analysis of NASA data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some areas, such as eastern New South Wales, have a very high ratio of change between the first and second decade, reflecting Black Summer. Some areas, such as Arnhem Land, have a very high hotspot count and a slight increase from the first decade to the second, which may produce a significant challenge in future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-are-professional-fire-watchers-and-were-astounded-by-the-scale-of-fires-in-remote-australia-right-now-172773">We are professional fire watchers, and we're astounded by the scale of fires in remote Australia right now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To encompass the effects of both high counts and high ratios, a threshold was set and any region that exceeded this was an area that needed the most attention.</p>
<p>This produced a set of geographic regions with consistent patterns.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map combining decade two hotspot count and inter-decadal ratios (left) is used to create map showing regions of change (right)." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523746/original/file-20230502-18-b9wqpt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Combinations of decade two hotspot counts and inter-decadal ratios (left) used to create regions of change, coloured separately (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author analysis of NASA data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The impacts detailed in the interactive map below (click on the dots for details) must be considered as longer-term management issues for the highlighted regions. </p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-849" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/849/90b3c6b62a414bf2881cb7663bd80f3bf25c813c/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Year-to-year fire patterns have been showing extreme swings in recent years, which may swamp the longer-term trends. However, these trends have picked up many of the key operational challenges, including <a href="http://www.highfirerisk.com.au/pyrocb/register.htm">fire thunderstorms</a>, of recent years. </p>
<p>These challenges are evident in forests in the south-east and south-west of Australia, south-east Queensland, central Tasmania and the tropics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Hotspot mapping in the future</h2>
<p>Challenges as we move forward include developing ways to merge the MODIS data with data from the next generation of satellites, and to separate data for wildfire and prescribed burning.</p>
<p>This and other work will allow us to better anticipate what the next decade will bring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick McRae was a senior emergency manager in the ACT for over three decades, and has now retired. He is now a Visiting Fellow at UNSW Canberra.</span></em></p>Two decades of satellite data have allowed us to map fires across the country and identify areas facing high fire risks. Fire activity has increased in several major regions over the past decade.Rick McRae, Adjunct Professor, School of Science at UNSW Canberra, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2007462023-03-01T10:17:19Z2023-03-01T10:17:19ZStarlink: SpaceX’s new internet service could be a gamechanger in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512623/original/file-20230228-16-j6y7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">SpaceX's Starlink service is slowly arriving in Africa, starting with Nigeria and Rwanda.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s hard for many of us to imagine a world without instant, limitless internet access. Some have even argued that it should, alongside access to clean water and electricity, be considered a <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news-archive/2020/internet-access-is-a-necessity-not-a-luxury-it-should-be-a-basic-right">basic human right</a>.</p>
<p>But in fact only <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/617136/digital-population-worldwide/#statisticContainer">64.4% of the global population</a> as of January 2023 are internet users. Asia and Europe are home to most of the people who are connected.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176654/internet-penetration-rate-africa-compared-to-global-average/">Africa</a> comes in third. However, accessibility varies wildly across the continent. About 66% of people in southern Africa are internet users. In east Africa the figure is 26%; it is just 24% in central Africa. People in rural areas have far less access than those in the continent’s urban areas.</p>
<p>Internet access <a href="https://www.mandelarhodes.org/news-impact/yam/connectivity-now-why-internet-access-in-africa-more-vital-than-ever/">opens up the world</a> in many ways. It can entertain, educate, enable payments and even <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/3ff0cd3bf0d813bec233f3583aaa4691-0050022021/original/3G-Internet.pdf">bolster democracy</a>.</p>
<p>That’s why advances in providing internet access to people in Africa are worth celebrating. In January 2023, the US company <a href="https://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a>, which manufactures and launches spacecraft and communication satellites, <a href="https://gizmodo.com/spacex-starlink-nigeria-africa-first-1850054266">announced</a> that its Starlink service was available in Nigeria. This was a first for the continent. It has also since become available in Rwanda. </p>
<p>Starlink is a satellite-based internet service. It is <a href="https://www.starlink.com/map">set to be rolled out</a> elsewhere on the continent, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya and Tanzania, later this year. More coverage is to come in 2024. </p>
<p>This could be an important way to fill Africa’s connectivity gaps, which have arisen because of poor digital infrastructure and the high costs of investing in fibre optic cables or mobile phone masts, particularly in rural and remote areas. The United Nations has <a href="https://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/working-groups/DigitalMoonshotforAfrica_Report.pdf">a strategy</a> for reaching universal access across Africa by 2030, but this won’t be possible without innovative approaches.</p>
<p>Starlink is one such innovation. Since all its users are tapping into the same infrastructure, in space, there’s less need for erecting mobile phone masts or laying fibre optic cable <a href="https://qz.com/africa/2171730/starlink-is-coming-to-africa-but-who-will-use-it">on land</a>.</p>
<h2>What is Starlink?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.starlink.com/technology">Starlink</a> is a network of thousands of satellites located close to the Earth – about 550km from the planet’s surface – that provide broadband internet access. </p>
<p>Of course, satellites are already used for internet connectivity. But a traditional internet satellite is a single geostationary object; its position in orbit is fixed in relation to the Earth. These satellites are also located more than 35,000km from Earth, so it takes a long time for the signal to reach the end user. As anyone who has tried to use the internet in a remote area knows, the further a signal travels, the worse it gets, so traditional internet satellites tend to be slow and can be unreliable. They aren’t able to adequately support activities like live streaming, online gaming and video calls. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nanosatellite-launch-is-a-big-step-forward-for-african-space-science-175069">Nanosatellite launch is a big step forward for African space science</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Starlink’s Low-Earth Orbit satellites are able to interconnect and relay signals between each other, creating fast, stable internet service. There are also a lot of them: on 17 February 2023, SpaceX <a href="https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html">said</a> it had launched 3,981 satellites in total, with 3,639 currently operational.</p>
<p>The company can launch its own satellites on demand and update them with the latest technology as required, which it says <a href="https://www.starlink.com/technology">adds to their reliability</a>. </p>
<p>Much of Africa’s internet access is currently being provided through mobile, wireless internet – signals are relayed from land-based towers. This has less coverage and is slower than satellite internet access.</p>
<p>One area of concern when it comes to Starlink is the cost. For example, at the beginning of February 2023, FiberOne, a broadband internet provider in Nigeria, <a href="https://techpoint.africa/2023/02/01/do-you-really-need-starlink-in-nigeria/">was providing</a> internet with speeds of up to 500Mbps, which is fast. The installation fee was N32,231 (about US$70) and the monthly subscription cost around N100,000 (US$220). Starlink in Nigeria, meanwhile, <a href="https://techpoint.africa/2023/02/01/do-you-really-need-starlink-in-nigeria/">costs</a> about N276,000 (US$599) once-off for the kit and installation, then charges a monthly subscription fee of about N198,000 (US$43). </p>
<p>Starlink is cheaper in the long term than both fibre optic and mobile internet providers. But can an <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354685498_The_Determinants_of_Rural_Households%27_Income_in_Nigeria">average rural Nigerian household</a> with a monthly income of less than N28,000 (US$60) afford it? Given that average incomes are similarly low in most rural and remote parts of Africa, there’s a risk that Starlink’s targeted users on the continent won’t be able to use the service. </p>
<h2>Research uses</h2>
<p>These concerns aside, there’s no doubt that faster internet can propel Africa forward. Despite the shortcomings of mobile, wireless internet, it has been credited with <a href="https://www.cio.com/article/194000/what-does-technology-leapfrogging-really-mean-for-africa.html">greatly advancing Africa</a> technologically. Services like Starlink could fuel even greater growth in several areas. These include education, participation in democracy and governance, disaster risk reduction and mitigation, health, and agriculture. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pasha-34-how-digital-technologies-can-help-farmers-in-africa-122956">Pasha 34: How digital technologies can help farmers in Africa</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As a researcher in planetary and space science whose work <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365809949_Frequency_ratio-based_flood_vulnerability_modeling_over_the_greater_Accra_Region_of_Ghana">includes</a>, among other things, the use of satellite data for monitoring and modelling in relation to geology, I am especially interested in the ways these satellites could be used beyond internet access, for tasks like <a href="https://ts2.space/en/the-role-of-starlink-in-scientific-research/">remote sensing and Earth observations</a>. I hope that Starlink’s arrival in Africa will help usher the continent into a new phase of technological development.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/using-space-to-help-global-development/">For example</a>, satellite images can give information on crop yield, helping farmers to make better decisions on irrigation, fertilisation and harvesting. They also allow for widespread and effective monitoring of reservoir levels, as well as increasing transparency about how much water is available, thereby providing early warnings of shortages and uniform data among countries with common water sources. </p>
<p>Governments, researchers and industries can buy access to specialised Starlink satellites called <a href="https://swarm.space/">Swarm</a> for data they need for these kinds of projects. The sheer number and speed of Starlink’s satellites means they can gather a lot of data, quickly, and offer frequent updates. Starlink’s arrival in Africa is a great opportunity for the continent’s scientists, governments and industries to collaborate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200746/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marian Selorm Sapah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Internet access opens up the world in many ways.Marian Selorm Sapah, Lecturer/Research Scientist, University of GhanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906112023-02-20T16:13:58Z2023-02-20T16:13:58ZSatellite data: The other type of smartphone data you might not know about<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510420/original/file-20230215-2150-v1lai3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=54%2C45%2C5916%2C3962&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite data isn't collected and treated the same way location data are.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you think about location data on your mobile phone, tablet or laptop, what comes to mind? Mailing addresses? Postal codes? These data indicate where you live, where you work, and the places you visit. </p>
<p>When combined with other types of data over time, companies and governments use them to analyze your consumption patterns, occupation, education, health and financial status.</p>
<p>Turning location services off only prevents smartphone apps from receiving location data. Smartphones <a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/your-smartphone-can-be-tracked-even-if-gps-location-services-are-turned-off/">can still be located by cell towers and wireless networks</a> when location services are switched off. </p>
<p>This was highlighted by German politician Malte Spitz <a href="https://www.zeit.de/digital/datenschutz/2011-03/data-protection-malte-spitz">over a decade ago</a> when he sued his cellphone provider, Deutsche Telekom, for any personal data they had about him.</p>
<p>When the case was settled and he eventually received the data, Spitz found 35,000 references to his location. He was able to visually reconstruct his movements over the previous six months, demonstrating the relevance of data protection laws to the public.</p>
<p>But there is more. By using <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262043656/critical-code-studies/">critical code</a> and documentary research methods, we found that raw satellite location measurement data are perpetually created in our devices all the time. </p>
<p>Because satellite data are building blocks used by our phones to determine where we are, they don’t always get turned off — nor are they collected and treated the same way as location data.</p>
<h2>Data outputs</h2>
<p>Smartphones determine your location in several ways. The first way involves phones <a href="https://doi.org/10.3141/2526-14">triangulating distances between cell towers or Wi-Fi routers</a>. </p>
<p>The second way involves smartphones interacting with navigation satellites. When satellites pass overhead, they transmit signals to smartphones, which allows smartphones to calculate their own location. This process uses a specialized piece of hardware called the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6501/ab8a7d">Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) chipset</a>. Every smartphone has one.</p>
<p>When these GNSS chipsets calculate navigation satellite signals, they output data in two standardized formats (known as protocols or languages): the GNSS raw measurement protocol and the National Marine Electronics Association protocol (NMEA 0183). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite floating above the Earth in space" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510419/original/file-20230215-20-w278oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When satellites pass overhead, they transmit signals to smartphones, which enable smartphones to calculate their own location.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>GNSS raw measurements include data such as the distance between satellites and cellphones and measurements of the signal itself.</p>
<p>NMEA 0183 contains similar information to GNSS raw measurements, but also includes additional information such as satellite identification numbers, the number of satellites in a constellation, what country owns a satellite, and the position of a satellite.</p>
<p>NMEA 0183 was created and is governed by the <a href="https://www.nmea.org/">NMEA</a>, a not-for-profit lobby group that is also a marine electronics trade organization. The NMEA was formed at the <a href="https://www.nmea.org/history.html">1957 New York Boat Show</a> when boating equipment manufacturers decided to build stronger relationships within the electronic manufacturing industry. </p>
<p>In the decades since, the NMEA 0183 data standard has <a href="https://www.passagemaker.com/technical/speaking-their-languages">improved marine electronics communications</a> and is now found on a wide variety of non-marine communications devices today, including smartphones.</p>
<h2>Who has access to these data?</h2>
<p>It is difficult to know who has access to data produced by these protocols. Access to NMEA protocols is <a href="https://www.nmea.org/standards.html">only available under licence to businesses</a> for a fee.</p>
<p>GNSS raw measurements, on the other hand, are a universal standard and can be read by different devices in the same way without a license. In 2016, <a href="https://www.gpsworld.com/google-to-provide-raw-gnss-measurements/">Google allowed industries to have open access to it</a> to foster innovation around device tracking accuracy, precision, analytics about how we move in real-time, and predictions about our movements in the future.</p>
<p>While automated processes can quietly harvest location data — like when a <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgz4n3/muslim-app-location-data-salaat-first">French-based company extracted location data</a> from Salaat First, a Muslim prayer app — these data don’t need to be taken directly from smartphones to be exploited.</p>
<p>Data can be modelled, experimented with, or emulated in licensed devices in labs for innovation and algorithmic development.</p>
<p>Satellite-driven raw measurements from our devices were used to <a href="https://www.euspa.europa.eu/standardisation-gnss-threat-reporting-and-receiver-testing-through-international-knowledge-exchange">power global surveillance networks like STRIKE3</a>, a now defunct European-led initiative that monitored and reported perceived threats to navigation satellites.</p>
<h2>Data and citizen rights</h2>
<p>Our research raises questions about how rights are protected in the midst of these practices. Citizens have little to no access to the data output from NMEA 0183 and GNSS raw measurements. Because of this, people are unable to negotiate the visibility of their data in these datasets.</p>
<p>The data output from NMEA 0183 and GNSS raw measurements flow unrestricted from every smartphone on the planet. Smartphones have unique identifiers — <a href="https://support.bell.ca/mobility/smartphones_and_mobile_internet/what_is_an_imei_number_and_how_can_i_find_mine">IMEI numbers</a> — that are known to the tech ecosystem. They can be <a href="https://citizenlab.ca/2015/05/the-many-identifiers-in-our-pocket-a-primer-on-mobile-privacy-and-security/">connected to a user’s personal details</a>. </p>
<p>The flow of NMEA 0183 and GNSS data is invisible to the average person, meaning citizens are unsure of how these data are used, or with whom they are shared. Because of this, it’s impossible for people to challenge how their personal data are used.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boat through a large body of water with a city skyline visible in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510421/original/file-20230215-4182-dy33y3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A U.S. Coast Guard boat in Biscayne Bay, Fla., in June 2022. The National Marine Electronics Association is working on improving search-and-rescue operations by ensuring radio distress signals sent by marines contain GPS information.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As interest in the supposed security, entertainment and surveillance value of these protocols continue to grow, these protocols are increasingly susceptible to misuse by third-party developers.</p>
<p>But there is another layer to this: NMEA 0183 and GNSS raw measurements are standards in industries that offer products and services that many of us benefit from. The NMEA has foundations in safe passage at sea, making their data an important part of <a href="https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/industry-news/nmea-works-on-improving-distress-signal-communication">emergency services operations</a>. GNSS raw measurements are also utilized for <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309645977_Precise_GNSS_for_Everyone_Precise_Positioning_Using_Raw_GPS_Measurements_from_Android_Smartphones">safety purposes</a>.</p>
<p>Could solutions restrict the use of these data for life-critical situations only? Is there an oversight body that could assess what impacts industrial usage of these data might have upon smartphone owner rights and liberties? What about an audit led by civil society, who would be appropriately positioned to objectively inspect these issues to determine whether they might harm the public? For example, consider the way the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9022878/federal-privacy-commissioner-arrivecan-app-investigation/">federal privacy commissioner reviews app data activities</a>.</p>
<p>Location data now flows constantly from GNSS chipsets. There is uncertainty about who is using these data, and for what purposes. Until industry and government reassure citizens that personal data are not being exploited and that rights are protected, these remain open questions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tommy Cooke has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Centre for Advanced Internet Studies (Bochum, Germany), and Queen's University's Wicked Ideas Competition. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Muller receives funding from SSHRC and King's University College.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirstie Ball has received funding from SSHRC, ESRC, EPSRC, EU Framework 7 SSH and Security Programmes, The Leverhulme Trust and The British Academy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alicia Sabatino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cellphones are constantly collecting location data from global satellites, but there is uncertainty about who is using these data, and for what purposes.Tommy Cooke, Visiting Professor, Department of Geography & Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyAlicia Sabatino, Master's Student in Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyBenjamin Muller, Associate Professor in Migration and Border Studies, King’s University College, Western UniversityKirstie Ball, Professor of Management, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1761382022-03-31T18:17:56Z2022-03-31T18:17:56ZThe Human Genome Project pieced together only 92% of the DNA – now scientists have finally filled in the remaining 8%<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455098/original/file-20220329-23-6gtdap.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2070%2C1449&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over half of the human genome contains repetitive DNA sequences whose functions are still not fully understood.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/hands-dismantling-double-helix-royalty-free-illustration/1252382129">Malte Mueller/fStop via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the <a href="https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp">Human Genome Project</a> announced that they had completed the first human genome in 2003, it was a momentous accomplishment – for the first time, the DNA blueprint of human life was unlocked. But it came with a catch – they weren’t actually able to put together all the genetic information in the genome. There were gaps: unfilled, often repetitive regions that were too confusing to piece together.</p>
<p>With advancements in technology that could handle these repetitive sequences, scientists finally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.26.445798">filled those gaps in May 2021</a>, and the first end-to-end human genome was <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj6987">officially published on Mar. 31, 2022</a>.</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=q3BBiy8AAAAJ&hl=en">genome biologist</a> who studies repetitive DNA sequences and how they shape genomes throughout evolutionary history. I was part of the team that helped <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk3112">characterize the repeat sequences</a> missing from the genome. And now, with a truly complete human genome, these uncovered repetitive regions are finally being explored in full for the first time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1415692472156495875"}"></div></p>
<h2>The missing puzzle pieces</h2>
<p>German botanist Hans Winkler coined the word “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1006181">genome</a>” in 1920, combining the word “gene” with the suffix “-ome,” meaning “complete set,” to describe the full DNA sequence contained within each cell. Researchers still use this word a century later to refer to the genetic material that makes up an organism. </p>
<p>One way to describe what a genome looks like is to compare it to a reference book. In this analogy, a genome is an anthology containing the DNA instructions for life. It’s composed of a vast array of nucleotides (letters) that are packaged into chromosomes (chapters). Each chromosome contains genes (paragraphs) that are regions of DNA which code for the specific proteins that allow an organism to function.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram of chromosome unraveling to coiled DNA, genes and component nucleotides" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454831/original/file-20220328-15-5hb209.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Genetic material is made of DNA tightly packaged into chromosomes. Only select regions of the DNA in a genome contain genes coding for proteins.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/genes-vector-illustration-educational-royalty-free-illustration/1219077563">VectorMine/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While every living organism has a genome, the size of that genome varies from species to species. An elephant uses the same form of genetic information as the grass it eats and the bacteria in its gut. But no two genomes look exactly alike. Some are short, like the genome of the insect-dwelling bacteria <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/gbe/evt118"><em>Nasuia deltocephalinicola</em></a> with just 137 genes across 112,000 nucleotides. Some, like the 149 billion nucleotides of the flowering plant <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8339.2010.01072.x"><em>Paris japonica</em></a>, are so long that it’s difficult to get a sense of how many genes are contained within.</p>
<p>But genes as they’ve traditionally been understood – as stretches of DNA that code for proteins – are just a small part of an organism’s genome. In fact, they make up <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature11247">less than 2% of human DNA</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj6987">human genome</a> contains roughly 3 billion nucleotides and just under 20,000 protein-coding genes – an estimated 1% of the genome’s total length. The remaining 99% is non-coding DNA sequences that don’t produce proteins. Some are regulatory components that work as a switchboard to control how other genes work. Others are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/424526">pseudogenes</a>, or genomic relics that have lost their ability to function. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.12.451456">over half</a> of the human genome is repetitive, with multiple copies of near-identical sequences. </p>
<h2>What is repetitive DNA?</h2>
<p>The simplest form of repetitive DNA are blocks of DNA repeated over and over in tandem called <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/genes8090230">satellites</a>. While <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msq198">how much satellite DNA</a> a given genome has varies from person to person, they often cluster toward the ends of chromosomes in regions called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.febslet.2004.11.036">telomeres</a>. These regions protect chromosomes from degrading during DNA replication. They’re also found in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/genes10030223">centromeres</a> of chromosomes, a region that helps keep genetic information intact when cells divide.</p>
<p>Researchers still lack a clear understanding of all the functions of satellite DNA. But because satellite DNA forms unique patterns in each person, forensic biologists and genealogists use this <a href="https://www.yourgenome.org/facts/what-is-a-dna-fingerprint">genomic “fingerprint”</a> to match crime scene samples and track ancestry. Over 50 genetic disorders are linked to variations in satellite DNA, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0b013e318249f683">Huntington’s disease</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="46 human chromosomes colored blue with white telomeres against a black screen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455099/original/file-20220329-15-1ohcqqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite DNA tends to cluster toward the ends of chromosomes in their telomeres. Here, 46 human chromosomes are colored blue, with white telomeres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/CRDw73">NIH Image Gallery/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another abundant type of repetitive DNA are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10577-017-9569-5">transposable elements</a>, or sequences that can move around the genome.</p>
<p>Some scientists have described them as selfish DNA because they can insert themselves anywhere in the genome, regardless of the consequences. As the human genome evolved, many transposable sequences collected mutations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13100-016-0070-z">repressing</a> their ability to move to avoid harmful interruptions. But some can likely still move about. For example, transposable element insertions are linked to a number of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13100-016-0065-9">cases of hemophilia A</a>, a genetic bleeding disorder.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IcbVDTLCDwI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Transposable DNA may be the reason why humans have a tailbone but no tail.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But transposable elements aren’t just disruptive. They can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/gr.218149.116">regulatory functions</a> that help control the expression of other DNA sequences. When they’re <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tig.2004.09.011">concentrated in centromeres</a>, they may also help maintain the integrity of the genes fundamental to cell survival.</p>
<p>They can also contribute to evolution. Researchers recently found that the insertion of a transposable element into a gene important to development might be why some primates, including humans, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.14.460388">no longer have tails</a>. Chromosome rearrangements due to transposable elements are even linked to the genesis of new species like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msab148">gibbons of southeast Asia</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-animal-021419-083555">wallabies of Australia</a>.</p>
<h2>Completing the genomic puzzle</h2>
<p>Until recently, many of these complex regions could be compared to the far side of the moon: known to exist, but unseen.</p>
<p>When the <a href="https://www.genome.gov/11006929/2003-release-international-consortium-completes-hgp">Human Genome Project</a> first launched in 1990, technological limitations made it impossible to fully uncover repetitive regions in the genome. <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/dna-sequencing-technologies-key-to-the-human-828/">Available sequencing technology</a> could only read about 500 nucleotides at a time, and these short fragments had to overlap one another in order to recreate the full sequence. Researchers used these overlapping segments to identify the next nucleotides in the sequence, incrementally extending the genome assembly one fragment at a time.</p>
<p>These repetitive gap regions were like putting together a 1,000-piece puzzle of an overcast sky: When every piece looks the same, how do you know where one cloud starts and another ends? With near-identical overlapping stretches in many spots, fully sequencing the genome by piecemeal became unfeasible. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003628">Millions of nucleotides</a> remained hidden in the the first iteration of the human genome.</p>
<p>Since then, sequence patches have gradually filled in gaps of the human genome bit by bit. And in 2021, the <a href="https://github.com/marbl/CHM13#telomere-to-telomere-consortium">Telomere-to-Telomere (T2T) Consortium</a>, an international consortium of scientists working to complete a human genome assembly from end to end, announced that all remaining gaps were <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj6987">finally filled</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/meppRKz50lc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">With the completion of the first human genome, researchers are now looking toward capturing the full diversity of humanity.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was made possible by improved sequencing technology capable of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41576-020-0236-x">reading longer sequences</a> thousands of nucleotides in length. With more information to situate repetitive sequences within a larger picture, it became easier to identify their proper place in the genome. Like simplifying a 1,000-piece puzzle to a 100-piece puzzle, long-read sequences made it <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk3112">possible to assemble</a> large repetitive regions for the first time. </p>
<p>With the increasing power of long-read DNA sequencing technology, geneticists are positioned to explore a new era of genomics, untangling complex repetitive sequences across populations and species for the first time. And a complete, gap-free human genome provides an invaluable resource for researchers to investigate repetitive regions that shape genetic structure and variation, species evolution and human health.</p>
<p>But one complete genome doesn’t capture it all. Efforts continue to create diverse genomic references that fully represent <a href="https://humanpangenome.org">the human population</a> and <a href="https://www.earthbiogenome.org/">life on Earth</a>. With more complete, “telomere-to-telomere” genome references, scientists’ understanding of the repetitive dark matter of DNA will become more clear.</p>
<p>[<em>Get fascinating science, health and technology news.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-fascinating">Sign up for The Conversation’s weekly science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabrielle Hartley receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Advances in technology have enabled researchers to sequence the large regions of repetitive DNA that eluded the Human Genome Project.Gabrielle Hartley, Ph.D. Candidate in Molecular and Cell Biology, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1763472022-03-16T16:34:27Z2022-03-16T16:34:27ZHow AI helped deliver cash aid to many of the poorest people in Togo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451998/original/file-20220314-131648-9brlb3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=198%2C68%2C4825%2C3015&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mobile devices are becoming ubiquitous in Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mobile-phone-lome-togo-news-photo/170481943">Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Governments and humanitarian groups can use machine learning algorithms and mobile phone data to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04484-9">get aid to those who need it most</a> during a humanitarian crisis, we found in new research.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of West Africa, highlighting Togo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446801/original/file-20220216-24-1v07seb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Togo is a small West African nation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-data-locator-map-togo-news-photo/641462678">Encyclopaedia Britannica/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4420">simple idea</a> behind this approach, as we explained in the journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04484-9">Nature on March 16, 2022</a>, is that wealthy people use phones differently from poor people. Their phone calls and text messages follow different patterns, and they use different data plans, for example. Machine learning algorithms – which are fancy tools for pattern recognition – can be trained to recognize those differences and infer whether a given mobile subscriber is wealthy or poor.</p>
<p>As the COVID-19 pandemic spread in early 2020, <a href="https://www.ischool.berkeley.edu/">our</a> <a href="https://www.poverty-action.org/">research</a> <a href="https://cega.berkeley.edu/">team</a> helped Togo’s <a href="https://numerique.gouv.tg/">Ministry of Digital Economy</a> and <a href="https://www.givedirectly.org/">GiveDirectly</a>, a nonprofit that sends cash to people living in poverty, turn this insight into a new type of aid program. </p>
<p>First, we collected recent, reliable and representative data. Working on the ground with partners in Togo, we conducted 15,000 phone surveys to collect information on the living conditions of each household. After matching the survey responses to data from the mobile phone companies, we trained the machine learning algorithms to recognize the patterns of phone use that were characteristics of people living on less than $1.25 per day.</p>
<p>The next challenge was figuring out whether a system based on machine learning and phone data would be effective at getting money to the poorest people in the country. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04484-9">Our evaluation</a> indicated that this new approach worked better than other options Togo’s government was considering.</p>
<p>For instance, focusing entirely on the poorest cantons – which are analagous to U.S. counties – would have delivered benefits to only 33% of the people living on less than US$1.25 a day. By contrast, the machine learning approach targeted 47% of that population.</p>
<p>We then partnered with Togo’s government, GiveDirectly and community leaders to design and pilot a cash transfer program based on this technology. In November 2020, the first beneficiaries were <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/stories-56580833">enrolled and paid</a>. To date, the program has provided nearly $10 million to roughly 137,000 of the country’s poorest citizens. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Our work shows that data collected by mobile phone companies – when analyzed with machine learning technology – can help <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/15/966848542/the-pandemic-pushed-this-farmer-into-deep-poverty-then-something-amazing-happene">direct aid</a> to those with the greatest need.</p>
<p>Even before the pandemic, over half of the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TG">West African nation’s</a> 8.6 million people lived below the international poverty line. As COVID-19 slowed economic activity further, our surveys indicated that 54% of all Togolese were forced to miss meals each week.</p>
<p>The situation in Togo was not unique. The downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-turning-corner-pandemic-2021">pushed millions of people into extreme poverty</a>. In response, governments and charities launched several thousand new aid programs, providing benefits to <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33635">over 1.5 billion people and families</a> around the world. </p>
<p>But in the middle of a humanitarian crisis, governments struggle to figure out who needs help most urgently. Under ideal circumstances, those decisions would be based on comprehensive household surveys. But there was no way to gather this information in the middle of a pandemic.</p>
<p>Our work helps demonstrate how new sources of big data – such as information gleaned from satellites and mobile phone networks – can make it possible to target aid amid crisis conditions when more traditional sources of data are unavailable. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>We’re conducting follow-up research to assess how cash transfers affected recipients. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw025">Previous</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w26600">findings</a> indicate that cash transfers can help increase food security and improve psychological well-being in normal times. We are assessing whether that aid has similar results during a crisis.</p>
<p>It’s also essential to find ways to enroll and pay people without phones. In Togo, roughly 85% of households had at least one phone, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2111.00175">phones are frequently shared</a> within families and communities. However, it is not clear how many people who needed humanitarian assistance in Togo didn’t get it because of their lack of access to a mobile device.</p>
<p>In the future, systems that combine new methods that leverage machine learning and big data with traditional approaches based on surveys are bound to improve the targeting of humanitarian aid.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Aiken collaborated closely with the teams at GiveDirectly and the government of Togo described in the article. She consulted for GiveDirectly from June to August 2021. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Blumenstock receives funding from Google.org, data.org, the Center for Effective Global Action, the Jameel Poverty Action Lab, and the NSF under award IIS – 1942702.
</span></em></p>To date, the program has provided nearly $10 million to roughly 137,000 of the country’s poorest citizens.Emily Aiken, Doctoral Student of Information, University of California, BerkeleyJoshua Blumenstock, Associate Professor of Information; Co-Director of the Center for Effective Global Action, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1785802022-03-07T16:32:01Z2022-03-07T16:32:01ZIs the Amazon rainforest on the verge of collapse?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450418/original/file-20220307-21-1mb4uda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=477%2C0%2C3302%2C2909&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/large-tree-amazon-rainforest-4649152">Dr Morley Read/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sprawling 5.5 million square kilometres, the Amazon rainforest is the largest of its kind and home to about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14772000.2010.484435">one in ten</a> of all known species. To date, at least 40,000 plants, 2,200 fish, 1,200 birds, 400 mammals, 400 amphibians, and 375 reptiles have been scientifically classified in the region, not to mention nearly 2.5 million insect species. </p>
<p>The Amazon has existed as a dense and humid rainforest teeming with life for at least 55 million years. But in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01287-8">a new paper</a>, scientists claim that over 75% of the ecosystem has been losing resilience since the early 2000s due to climate change. This process appears to be most prominent in areas that are closer to human activity, as well as in those receiving less rainfall.</p>
<p>The resilience of an ecosystem – its capacity to maintain usual processes like the regrowth of vegetation following drought – is a notoriously difficult concept for scientists to measure. In this paper, the authors analysed satellite images of remote areas of rainforest across the Amazon from 1991 to 2016. Using a measurement called vegetation optical depth, they suggest that forest biomass (the total weight of organisms in a given area) is taking longer to recover in these places as stresses mount. </p>
<p>This, they argue, suggests that longer dry seasons and drier conditions caused by climate change are undermining the rainforest’s ability to recover from successive droughts. The authors note, for example, that drought-sensitive tree species are being replaced with drought-resistant ones at a much slower rate compared with rapid changes in the regional climate.</p>
<p>This could mean that the Amazon is approaching a <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-fifth-of-ecosystems-in-danger-of-collapse-heres-what-that-might-look-like-148137">tipping point</a> which, if passed, would lead to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/huge-ecosystems-could-collapse-in-less-than-50-years-new-study-133008">collapse of the rainforest</a> into a dry grassland or savanna. </p>
<p>Does this new research present a credible warning? Here’s what the evidence tells us.</p>
<h2>Critical slowing down</h2>
<p>As an ecosystem becomes less resilient, it is less capable of springing back from droughts and other sources of stress. This is known as “critical slowing down”. </p>
<p>If stresses continue, it becomes more likely that the ecosystem will reach a point where it <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-fifth-of-ecosystems-in-danger-of-collapse-heres-what-that-might-look-like-148137">abruptly changes</a> to a new state. In other words, critical slowing down can act as an early warning signal of impending collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire engulfing a forest clearing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450414/original/file-20220307-108911-1dpoofs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prolonged droughts have made tracts of the Amazon more vulnerable to fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amazon-rain-forest-fire-disaster-burning-1522493246">Toa55/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The satellite data used by the authors is perhaps a better measure of <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/3509">the water content</a> of trees within the Amazon, rather than their biomass. Instead of losing trees, the patches of rainforest the authors studied could simply be drying out as dry seasons expand and droughts proliferate, which is what scientists have documented in the Amazon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01287-8">in recent decades</a>. </p>
<p>However, research on rainforest plots reported elsewhere support the new study’s claim that biomass in the rainforest is taking longer to recover from stress. Trees are dying more often and growing back slower, contributing to an overall reduction in total biomass in the Amazon, according to measurements taken over <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0">the same period</a>.</p>
<h2>The fate of the Amazon</h2>
<p>The new paper presents further evidence that the vegetation of the Amazon is changing. These changes may indicate that the rainforest is losing resilience or perhaps that seasons are becoming increasingly dry with more frequent droughts.</p>
<p>It is not possible to identify from these results when a critical transition might come about, or whether one is already underway. The question of whether the Amazon is reaching a tipping point which could flip it into another state remains unanswered. </p>
<p>This paper studied the impact of climate change on the rainforest in the form of longer and drier droughts. But scientists know that road-building and expanding farmland are also severe sources of stress. If the critical threshold beyond which the Amazon risks collapse has not yet been crossed, the combined effects of these may mean it occurs <a href="https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1158662/v1_covered.pdf?c=1639496975">sooner than</a> you might expect by looking at one stress in isolation. Once the transition has started, it may take <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15029-x">only a few decades</a> for the Amazon reach a new state.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Drone image of a barren landscape with a few remaining large trees and a large road cutting through it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450413/original/file-20220307-109743-zzjsfr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deforested land in the Amazon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/drone-aerial-view-deforestation-amazon-rainforest-1834141219">PARALAXIS/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The new research underlines the need to reverse global greenhouse emissions, reduce local pressure on the rainforest and conserve habitats to counteract the effects of a drier climate. Otherwise, we may be the last generation privileged enough to share a planet <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-fifth-of-ecosystems-in-danger-of-collapse-heres-what-that-might-look-like-148137">with these ecosystems</a>.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Willcock receives funding from UKRI via a number of grants including AH/W003813/1, ES/V004077/1, and ES/T007877/1. He is affiliated with Alliance Earth (a science communication organisation) and is a parish councillor on Shawford Parish Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Cooper receives funding from UKRI as part of the Action Against Stunting Hub (MR/S01313X/1). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Dearing is affiliated with the Green Party of England and Wales as a councillor on Warwick District Council.</span></em></p>New research suggests 75% of the rainforest has become less resilient to stress since the early 2000s.Simon Willcock, Professor of Sustainability, Bangor UniversityGregory Cooper, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Social-Ecological Resilience, University of SheffieldJohn Dearing, Professor of Physical Geography, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750692022-01-23T08:56:46Z2022-01-23T08:56:46ZNanosatellite launch is a big step forward for African space science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441242/original/file-20220118-15-wkuc3j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's important to have satellites collecting data about Africa, for Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Immersion Imagery/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African space science had a big day on 13 January 2022. The Cape Peninsula University of Technology, based in Cape Town, <a href="https://www.cput.ac.za/newsroom/news/article/4397/cput-mdasat-1-launch-spacex-mission-plan">launched</a> its third satellite mission into space from the Cape Canaveral rocket launch site in Florida in the US.</p>
<p>The nanosatellite constellation – consisting of three satellites – is called MDASat (Marine Domain Awareness). A nanosatellite is smaller than standard satellites, weighing between 1kg and 10kg; it’s an affordable, functional option. The mean mass of each of our satellites is 2.1kg.</p>
<p>MDASat is designed to collect data that will enhance the security and protection of South African marine resources. The constellation will detect, monitor and identify foreign vessels within the country’s <a href="https://marineregions.org/gazetteer.php?p=details&id=8396">exclusive economic zone</a>. This could help track illegal dumping and fishing.</p>
<p>Our hope, as the team that developed and designed the constellation – I am the acting chief engineer on the project – is that MDASat will enhance the country’s ocean sovereignty and protect our marine resources.</p>
<p>This mission follows on from the successful development, launch and operation of two other nanosatellites: ZACUBE-1, known as <a href="https://www.sansa.org.za/2013/11/21/successful-launch-of-tshepiso-sat/">TshepisoSat</a>, and <a href="https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/v-w-x-y-z/zacube-2">ZACUBE-2’s</a>.</p>
<p>It’s an exciting moment not just for the institution and for South Africa, but for the African continent more broadly: this is the first constellation of satellites developed and designed in Africa. Other African countries, among them Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and Ghana, <a href="https://qz.com/africa/2051243/africa-joins-global-space-race-to-boost-connectivity-and-security/">have sent satellites into space</a>. But these were not developed and designed on the continent; they involved partnerships with non-African nations or companies.</p>
<p>This is important because the more countries and scientists are involved in space the better: this provides better collaborations and presents new technical techniques to process information. Different data can be used for all sorts of purposes, like tracking space weather and monitoring natural and marine resources. </p>
<h2>MDASat’s role</h2>
<p>The January 13 launch sent three satellites of the MDA constellation (we hope to launch nine in total as part of this constellation) into space. MDASat-1 will use Automatic Identification System data to monitor ships’ movements within South Africa’s exclusive economic zone. Automatic Identification System is a radio system used for the tracking of maritime traffic. The location messages received by the satellites from ships in the ocean beneath is downloaded daily from the satellite when it passes over the ground station at the university’s Bellville, Cape Town campus.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A device that looks like a computer tower with helicopter rotor blades attached to the top" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441037/original/file-20220117-19-dwci8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the nanosatellites that forms part of the MDASat constellation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cape Peninsula University of Technology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The satellites can do a number of things. For instance, they can receive over the air upgrades, meaning software can be developed and uploaded to the orbiting satellite when ready. They can also collect raw data, enhancing the opportunity for diagnostic testing on signal interference and decoding messages. This information allows us to track the satellites’ health status – if they experience software bugs or electronic malfunctions we can study that information, then apply fixes or backup manoeuvres. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cool-cubes-are-changing-the-way-we-play-in-space-41621">Cool cubes are changing the way we play in space</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>MDASat also has an enhanced data interface. This means it uses the entire available bandwidth so it’s operating optimally and can put through maximum data.</p>
<p>These enhancements pave the way for the future MDASat-2’s development and launch. They also minimise the risk of damage to the current payload from space weather conditions.</p>
<p>Each satellite will initially pass the ground station an average of four times a day, but that will steadily increase. The satellites will drift apart over time and, as they eventually spread further apart, we will have an average of 12 passes per day. We expect an average of 1883k bytes of data to be generated per pass per satellite.</p>
<p>At the same time we are also still tracking the previously launched ZACUBE-2. It is also tracking ships, as well as forest and vegetation fires. Since its launch in 2018, ZACube-2 has provided cutting-edge very high frequency data exchange communication systems to the country’s maritime industry, as a contribution to <a href="https://www.operationphakisa.gov.za/Pages/Home.aspx">Operation Phakisa</a>. This government initiative aims to fast track several priority projects. </p>
<h2>Another African connection</h2>
<p>Space engineering projects started at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in 2008. Today these are coordinated by the institution’s <a href="https://blogs.cput.ac.za/fsati/">African Space Innovation Centre</a>.</p>
<p>We work from laboratories near the institution’s Bellville campus. Our satellites are built to last and to stay the course: they undergo a rigorous flight acceptance review that confirms not only that they’re fit to go into space but that they’ll work once they get there. The review includes environmental testing to ensure mechanical shocks don’t obliterate satellite and thermal testing to ensure they can operate within designated temperature ranges.</p>
<p>There was another South African element to the 13 January launch: MDASat was launched by <a href="https://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a>, the company founded by SA-born entrepreneur Elon Musk. SpaceX provides affordable ride share options into space and MDASat was just one project launched aboard the aerospace company’s Falcon 9 rocket on this occasion. The rocket carried a total of 105 spacecraft which will all gather data for different entities.</p>
<p>This project represents a big step towards autonomy of South Africa’s precious natural resources: data from and about the country, for its own use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The MDASat constellation project received funding from the Department of Science and Innovation.</span></em></p>The nanosatellite constellation will detect, monitor and identify foreign vessels within the country’s maritime borders.Nyameko Royi, Acting Chief Engineer, MDASat constellation project, Cape Peninsula University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666672021-11-29T00:35:22Z2021-11-29T00:35:22ZYes, it’s rocket science: Australia needs eyes in space to monitor our tinderbox landscape<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434094/original/file-20211126-23-1swt1g5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4992%2C2799&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As climate change worsens, bushfires are <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-most-sobering-report-card-yet-on-climate-change-and-earths-future-heres-what-you-need-to-know-165395">likely</a> to become more intense and frequent. We must find new ways of managing bushfires to prevent catastrophic events.</p>
<p>Satellite data can help in this task. It helps us identify where and when vegetation such as grass and leaves forms a continuous swath of fuel dry enough for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-heatwaves-and-drought-combine-to-produce-the-perfect-firestorm-153890">catastrophic</a> bushfire to ignite and take hold. </p>
<p>Right now, Australia relies on foreign satellites to gather this information. These satellites are not designed to assess our unique bush landscape and its highly flammable eucalyptus. We need to develop bespoke Australian satellites to better prevent bushfires.</p>
<p>Today, a <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/earth-observation-from-space-roadmap-2021-2030">roadmap</a> released by the Australian Space Agency outlines its priorities for Earth observation. It lists national bushfire fuel load monitoring as a priority “mission purpose” – recognising the need for satellites built specifically to watch Australia’s fire conditions from space.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a helicopter pours water on a fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434095/original/file-20211126-13-1bxoszc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current satellites are not designed to assess our unique bush landscape.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Hocking/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A quick continent snapshot</h2>
<p>We have been <a href="https://inspace.anu.edu.au/activity/missions/ozfuel">developing</a> an Australian satellite mission to monitor fuel conditions. This work helped inform the Australian Space Agency’s roadmap.</p>
<p>Information about fuel conditions is crucial on two counts. In the lead-up to bushfire season, it helps fire authorities decide where and when to conduct prescribed burning to reduce the amount of flammable material in the landscape, and where to focus community messaging. And when bushfires break out, it helps authorities plan where to allocate personnel and equipment.</p>
<p>Fuel condition can be gathered using various methods, including ground sampling, observations by plane or drone, and the satellite imagery currently available. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">A staggering 1.8 million hectares burned in 'high-severity' fires during Australia's Black Summer</a>
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<p>But generally speaking, these methods can only be used on small areas, are slow and time-consuming, or can <a href="https://inspace.anu.edu.au/files/ANU%20OzFuel%20Pre-Phase%20A_Aug%202021.pdf">lack accuracy</a>. Dedicated fuel-monitoring satellites, on the other hand, could cover the Australian landmass in a matter of hours or days with great precision.</p>
<p>Low soil and vegetation moisture content, due to dry conditions, were a <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-8190">key driver</a> of the catastrophic 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.</p>
<p>Two inquiries into those fires – the national <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/">royal commission</a> into natural disasters and the New South Wales parliamentary <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/publications/categories/nsw-bushfire-inquiry/">inquiry</a> – highlighted the need for a continent–wide map of vegetative fuel states. </p>
<p>Following the Black Summer fires, the Australian Space Agency identified the need for satellite monitoring of fuel conditions which provided more rapid and frequent data, broader coverage and improved resolution. It <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-12/bushfire-earth-observation-taskforce-report.pdf">raised the prospect</a> of new satellite missions specific to bushfire risk management. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and woman look at maps" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434113/original/file-20211126-13-1snyxk5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lead author Marta Yebra with an official, looking at fire fuel maps derived from airborne data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Geoff Cary</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Satellite data is key</h2>
<p>Satellite sensors systematically observe Earth’s surface, allowing for analysis of fuel conditions over time. </p>
<p>To date, Australia has relied heavily on Earth observation data provided by foreign satellites. For example, the CSIRO has purchased a 10% share of time on the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/about/facilities-collections/novasar-1">NovaSAR-1</a> satellite developed in the United Kingdom. </p>
<p>This satellite can take images of Earth through clouds and smoke, in both day and night. But it <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/bushfire-earth-observation-taskforce-report">cannot</a> provide regular operational support to Australian fire authorities.</p>
<p>And other satellites currently in space are not ideal for distinguishing the individual compounds that make our native eucalyptus so flammable – such as water content, lignin, cellulose and oil content. That’s because they lack the narrow spectral bands on the portion of the electromagnetic spectrum where these compounds can best be detected. </p>
<p>This limits Australia’s ability to accurately predict fuel conditions. A space mission dedicated to monitoring fuel loads in Australia is needed to improve bushfire management and prevention. That’s where our research can help.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Satellite view of smoke on land" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434098/original/file-20211126-27-wjaq69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Current satellite imagery helps Australian fire authorities, but could be further improved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The OzFuel mission</h2>
<p>Our team, based at the Australian National University, recently <a href="https://inspace.anu.edu.au/files/ANU%20OzFuel%20Pre-Phase%20A_Aug%202021.pdf">examined</a> the feasibility of a satellite mission to monitor Australian forest fuel from space, dubbed the OzFuel mission. </p>
<p>The OzFuel mission would measure fuel properties, as opposed to detecting fires. It would target the specific wavelengths related to dry matter, water content and other compounds of eucalypts that make them flammable, so providing a comprehensive picture of fuel loads at a continental scale.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Artist's impression of proposed Ozfuel sensor co-hosted on a satellite bus." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434115/original/file-20211126-1759-18fzz27.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Skykraft rendering of OzFuel imager co-hosted on a Skykraft satellite bus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Skykraft</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The OzFuel microsatellite would monitor Australian eucalyptus forests from space every six to eight days during the early hours of the afternoon, when vegetation is most stressed and more easily ignites. Images would be taken at a spatial resolution of about 50 metres, which is adequate for bushfire management operations. </p>
<p>We propose a program of work beginning with the OzFuel demonstrator mission comprising one pathfinder satellite launched into space. We envisage the long-term vision is a group of satellites providing near-real-time analysis of fuel conditions.</p>
<p>An ongoing launch program such as this requires significant investment, which would be enabled through industry and government partnerships.</p>
<p>But this should be considered an investment into protection against catastrophic bushfires, which <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/investing-in-early-fire-detection-could-save-8-billion">research suggests</a> will cost the Australian economy up to A$1.1 billion per year over the next 50 years. </p>
<p>Partner investment in the OzFuel mission would also help develop Australia’s capability in small satellite missions more generally.</p>
<p>The risk of larger and more frequent megafires will only increase in future. Clearly, Australia needs more effective prediction, prevention and mitigation strategies to prevent a repeat of Black Summer. A space mission designed to monitor Australia’s highly flammable landscape has a crucial role to play. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-made-bushfire-maps-from-satellite-data-and-found-a-glaring-gap-in-australias-preparedness-132087">I made bushfire maps from satellite data, and found a glaring gap in Australia's preparedness</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Gilbert is the ANU infrared sensor technical program lead and space systems lead for OzFuel</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Sharp is the scientific lead at ANU for the sensor program on which the OzFuel mission is based. This work is part of a wider program of technical development in infrared sensor technology funded through a combination of government and private industry research awards.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marta Yebra and Nicolas Younes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s bushfire response relies on foreign satellites, which are not designed to assess our highly flammable eucalypt-clad landscapes.Marta Yebra, Associate professor, Australian National UniversityJames Gilbert, Lead Engineer, Australian National UniversityNicolas Younes, Postdoctoral research fellow, Australian National UniversityRob Sharp, Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1683732021-11-04T19:08:20Z2021-11-04T19:08:20ZClouds in a new light: rejected satellite data gives a fresh view of our floating companions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422557/original/file-20210922-13-4xlw96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=161%2C325%2C1203%2C776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grayson Cooke</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Clouds have been objects of reverie and wonder throughout human history, inspiring art and imagination, and of course warning of extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Clouds are also central players in Earth’s climate. They move water around the globe, reflect sunlight and interact with radiation emitted by the Earth, and in so doing can both cool and warm the planet. </p>
<p>How clouds react as the planet heats up is a matter of serious concern. As the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report</a> reiterates, we sit on the brink of a precipice in terms of our ability to slow or halt the global heating humans are causing. </p>
<p>Climate scientists study clouds closely, but translating scientific findings into forms that catch the public imagination is not always an easy task. Our new film, <a href="https://www.graysoncooke.com/path99">Path 99</a>, uses satellite imagery and the tools of art and science to show clouds in a spectacular new light. </p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/407353796" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Data from the Himawari 8 weather satellite shows water vapour flowing through Earth’s atmosphere.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Satellites, clouds and invalid data</h2>
<p>Remote sensing satellite data is produced by a very large multinational effort, and it makes an immense contribution to our knowledge of the world. Meteorology, geoscience and climate science all rely on satellite data. </p>
<p>But we can gain even more from this data if we explore it via the creative arts. When we bring knowledge to life through imagination and feeling, we can create new ways of experiencing, understanding and responding to our planet. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-where-do-clouds-come-from-and-why-do-they-have-different-shapes-102404">Curious Kids: where do clouds come from and why do they have different shapes?</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.graysoncooke.com/path99">Path 99</a> – which launches next week at the <a href="https://www.nziff.co.nz/2021/wellington/path-99/">New Zealand International Film Festival</a> – uses satellite images of clouds over Australia to highlight the importance of clouds to climate. Designed to be viewed on the domed screen of a planetarium with an enveloping electronic soundtrack, it combines art, science and Earth. </p>
<p>We used data from two satellites, America’s <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/core-science-systems/nli/landsat/landsat-8?qt-science_support_page_related_con=0#qt-science_support_page_related_con">Landsat 8</a> and Japan’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himawari_8">Himawari 8</a>, made available by Geoscience Australia and the <a href="https://www.dea.ga.gov.au/">Digital Earth Australia</a> program, and the Bureau of Meteorology.</p>
<p>Landsat 8 is an Earth observation satellite mainly used for monitoring environmental conditions at ground level. Its orbit takes it over the poles while the planet spins beneath it, which means it can view the entire globe over the course of a 16-day cycle of 233 orbits or “paths”. The track running down the centre of Australia is path 99, hence the film’s title.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-artists-surreal-view-of-australia-created-from-satellite-data-captured-700km-above-earth-96718">An artist's surreal view of Australia – created from satellite data captured 700km above Earth</a>
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<p>For geoscientists, clouds are an obstruction to the view of the land from orbit. They use software to comb through satellite data pixel by pixel, identifying and removing clouds and other atmospheric noise to obtain clear images.</p>
<p>At any given time, clouds cover around two-thirds of Earth, so what the scientists sift out creates a vast archive of “invalid data” – a multi-year record of incredible cloud formations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Satellite image showing clouds over Kati Thanda / Lake Eyre" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422550/original/file-20210922-19-1y05asx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">‘Invalid Data: Kati Thanda / Lake Eyre 12/03/2017’ (2019). This Landsat 8 satellite image shows clouds over Kati Thanda / Lake Eyre on March 12 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grayson Cooke. NASA/USGS Landsat 8 OLI.</span></span>
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<p>Our project focuses on this “invalid data”, showing the clouds, cloud shadow and gauzy fragments of land that are deemed unusable for scientific Earth observation. </p>
<p>A scientist’s waste can be an artist’s treasure. Projects like ours, combining art and science, show what can be gained when we look at the aesthetic qualities of the objects of scientific enquiry from a more human-centred perspective.</p>
<h2>Clouds in a new light</h2>
<p>Landsat 8’s sensor records what is known as “multi-spectral” imagery. This is data recorded in “bands” that isolate specific parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, from visible light to the near infrared. </p>
<p>Scientists use the infrared bands to study <a href="https://www.dea.ga.gov.au/products/dea-water-observations">plants and water</a>. When we used them to render clouds, we discovered startling colours, textures and forms.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="True colour and false colour images of clouds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422551/original/file-20210922-19-z0ub2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the right is a ‘true colour’ image, mapping the red, green and blue bands (432) of the sensor to RGB in the output image. On the left is a ‘false colour’ image, mapping the near infrared, and two shortwave infrared bands (567) of the sensor to RGB. The infrared image picks out large variation in cloud structure and therefore height, temperature and opacity more effectively than the true colour image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grayson Cooke. NASA/USGS Landsat 8 OLI.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The dramatic shift in colouration that results from mapping the infrared bands into the visible spectrum, turning shades of white and grey into highly coloured tableaux, translates clouds into something radically unexpected. </p>
<p>Scientifically speaking, the coloured images reveal the remarkable spectral complexity of clouds, in terms of which wavelengths of sunlight they reflect and which they absorb. The variations in colour reflect wide ranges of cloud temperatures, densities, and heights, as well as the presence or absence of dust and other aerosol particles.</p>
<h2>Tracing vapour</h2>
<p>The Himawari 8 satellite sits in a geostationary orbit high above a point on the equator just north of Papua New Guinea. Its field of view allows it to record multi-spectral images of much of the Asia-Pacific region every 10 minutes, including several infrared bands used to track gases and other particles in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In the video clips shown in this article, Path 99 uses bands designed to show the transport of water vapour around the planet. This allows us to see Australia’s clouds in their wider context, as part of the massive circulations that distribute thermal energy around the Earth.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/469357066" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The “Path 99” trailer for planetarium. Imagine the circular image as a dome flipped up and rotated above your head.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Heads in the clouds</h2>
<p>As modern human existence increasingly transforms the Earth, its atmosphere and climate, we need new ways to understand, represent and address this impact. </p>
<p>Cloud behaviours are vital clues to the extent of the changes in climate and weather. Now more than ever, we should all have our heads in the clouds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/artists-are-not-at-the-negotiating-table-at-cop26-but-art-is-everywhere-what-can-they-accomplish-through-their-work-170786">Artists are not at the negotiating table at COP26 but art is everywhere. What can they accomplish through their work?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This project has been produced with the support of Geoscience Australia and Digital Earth Australia, and with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) which is supported by the Australian Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dugal McKinnon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Clouds are central players in climate change, and ‘Path 99’ reveals them in a new light using data discarded by scientists.Grayson Cooke, Associate Professor, Chair of Creative Arts, Southern Cross UniversityChristian Jakob, Professor in Atmospheric Science, Monash UniversityDugal McKinnon, Associate Professor, Composition and Sonic Arts, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707472021-10-29T17:30:20Z2021-10-29T17:30:20ZWe mapped every large solar plant on the planet using satellites and machine learning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429115/original/file-20211028-20-d1jxmg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2991%2C1423&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jenson / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>An astonishing <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/documenting-a-decade-of-cost-declines-for-pv-systems.html">82% decrease</a> in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy since 2010 has given the world a fighting chance to build a zero-emissions energy system <a href="https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/no-2021-01-empirically-grounded-technology-forecasts-and-the-energy-transition/">which might be less costly</a> than the fossil-fuelled system it replaces. The <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/77ecf96c-5f4b-4d0d-9d93-d81b938217cb/World_Energy_Outlook_2018.pdf">International Energy Agency</a> projects that PV solar generating capacity must grow ten-fold by 2040 if we are to meet the dual tasks of alleviating global poverty and constraining warming to well below 2°C. </p>
<p>Critical challenges remain. Solar is “intermittent”, since sunshine varies during the day and across seasons, so energy must be stored for when the sun doesn’t shine. Policy must also be designed to ensure solar energy reaches the furthest corners of the world and places where it is most needed. And there will be inevitable trade-offs between solar energy and other uses for the same land, including conservation and biodiversity, agriculture and food systems, and community and indigenous uses.</p>
<p>Colleagues and I have now published in the journal Nature the first <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03957-7">global inventory</a> of large solar energy generating facilities. “Large” in this case refers to facilities that generate at least 10 kilowatts when the sun is at its peak. (A typical small residential rooftop installation has a capacity of around 5 kilowatts). </p>
<p>We built a machine learning system to detect these facilities in satellite imagery and then deployed the system on over 550 terabytes of imagery using several human lifetimes of computing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map with dots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429144/original/file-20211028-27-1w50gcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of all the large solar facilities detected up to 2018 (lighter colours = more recent)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kruitwagen et al, Nature</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We searched almost half of Earth’s land surface area, filtering out remote areas far from human populations. In total we detected 68,661 solar facilities. Using the area of these facilities, and controlling for the uncertainty in our machine learning system, we obtain a global estimate of 423 gigawatts of installed generating capacity at the end of 2018. This is very close to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2019">estimate</a> of 420 GW for the same period. </p>
<h2>Tracking the growth of solar energy</h2>
<p>Our study shows solar PV generating capacity grew by a remarkable 81% between 2016 and 2018, the period for which we had timestamped imagery. Growth was led particularly by increases in India (184%), Turkey (143%), China (120%) and Japan (119%).</p>
<p>Facilities ranged in size from sprawling gigawatt-scale desert installations in Chile, South Africa, India and north-west China, through to commercial and industrial rooftop installations in California and Germany, rural patchwork installations in North Carolina and England, and urban patchwork installations in South Korea and Japan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial photo of rice fields and solar farms" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429116/original/file-20211028-21-1wplvee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar mixed with rice fields on reclaimed land in South Korea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stock for you / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The advantages of facility-level data</h2>
<p>Country-level aggregates of our dataset are very close to IRENA’s <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2019">country-level statistics</a>, which are collected from questionnaires, country officials, and industry associations. Compared to other facility-level datasets, we address some critical coverage gaps, particularly in developing countries, where the diffusion of solar PV is critical for expanding electricity access while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In developed and developing countries alike, our data provides a common benchmark unbiased by reporting from companies or governments.</p>
<p>Geospatially-localised data is of critical importance to the energy transition. Grid operators and electricity market participants need to know precisely where solar facilities are in order to know accurately the amount of energy they are generating or will generate. Emerging <a href="https://www.turing.ac.uk/research/research-projects/solar-nowcasting-machine-vision">in-situ or remote systems</a> are able to use location data to predict increased or decreased generation caused by, for example, passing clouds or changes in the weather. </p>
<p>This increased predictability allows solar to reach <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148115302901">higher proportions of the energy mix</a>. As solar becomes more predictable, grid operators will need to keep fewer fossil fuel power plants in reserve, and fewer penalties for over- or under-generation will mean more marginal projects will be unlocked.</p>
<p>Using the back catalogue of satellite imagery, we were able to estimate installation dates for 30% of the facilities. Data like this allows us to study the precise conditions which are leading to the diffusion of solar energy, and will help governments better design subsidies to encourage faster growth. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map showing solar facilities and previous land use" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429135/original/file-20211028-13-rtdsf6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The authors compared the locations of the solar facilities to data on land use, to find out what was there before. Cropland (light brown) was easily the most common.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kruitwagen et al, Nature</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Knowing where a facility is also allows us to study the unintended consequences of the growth of solar energy generation. In our study, we found that solar power plants are most often in agricultural areas, followed by grasslands and deserts. </p>
<p>This highlights the need to carefully consider the impact that a ten-fold expansion of solar PV generating capacity will have in the coming decades on food systems, biodiversity, and lands used by vulnerable populations. Policymakers can provide incentives to instead install solar generation on rooftops which cause less land-use competition, or other renewable energy options.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The <a href="https://github.com/Lkruitwagen/solar-pv-global-inventory">github</a>, <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/5045001">code</a>, and <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/5005868">data</a> repositories from this research have been made available to facilitate more research of this type and to kickstart the creation of a complete, open, and current dataset of the planet’s solar energy facilities.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The work was supported by Descartes Labs <a href="https://descarteslabs.com/">https://descarteslabs.com/</a>, who provided the cloud computation infrastructure, and World Resources Institute, who provided the cross-validation data.</span></em></p>Our data provides a common benchmark unbiased by reporting from companies or governments.Lucas Kruitwagen, Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence Researcher, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1521662020-12-21T20:05:57Z2020-12-21T20:05:57ZThousands of ocean fishing boats could be using forced labor – we used AI and satellite data to find them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375956/original/file-20201218-15-4gmsgh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5234%2C3448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fishing on the high seas is expensive, and the profits are often small.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/fishing-boat-sailing-at-rough-sea-royalty-free-image/921838112?adppopup=true"> piola666/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fishing on the high seas is a bit of a mystery, economically speaking. These areas of open ocean beyond the territorial jurisdiction of any nation are generally considered <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2504">high-effort, low-payoff fishing grounds</a>, yet fishers continue to work in them anyway. </p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=echjq8YAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">environmental data scientist</a> who leverages data and analytical techniques to answer critical questions about natural resource management. Back in 2018, my colleagues at the <a href="https://emlab.msi.ucsb.edu/">Environmental Market Solutions Lab</a> found that high-seas fishing often appears to be an almost <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2504">entirely unprofitable endeavor</a>. This is true even when taking <a href="https://unctad.org/project/regulating-fisheries-subsidies">government subsidies</a> into consideration. </p>
<p>Yet fishers continue to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2504">harvest on the high seas in staggering numbers</a>, suggesting that this activity is being financially supported beyond just government subsidies. </p>
<p>Forced labor is a known problem in open ocean fishing, but the scale has been very hard to track historically. This mystery – why so many vessels are fishing the high seas if it isn’t profitable – got our team thinking that maybe many of these vessels are, in a sense, being subsidized through low labor costs. These costs could even be zero if the vessels were using forced labor.</p>
<p>By combining our team’s data science expertise with satellite monitoring, input from human rights practitioners and machine learning algorithms, we developed a way to predict if a fishing vessel was at high risk of using forced labor. Our study shows that up to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2016238117">100,000 individuals may have been victims of forced labor</a> between 2012 and 2018 on these ships.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A fishing boat at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375960/original/file-20201218-15-281n88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Long trips, long hours and traveling long distances are all signs that a vessel is using forced labor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakItalianFishermenPhotoGallery/eb4a1fc98bc5428fb55a7f5a4a55786c/photo?Query=fishing%20at%20night&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=115&currentItemNo=29">AP Photo/Andrew Medichini</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unique behavior from forced labor</h2>
<p>Forced labor is <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C029">defined by the International Labour Organization</a> as “all work or service which is exacted from any person under the menace of any penalty and for which the said person has not offered themself voluntarily.” Essentially, many of these workers may be enslaved, unable to stop work, trapped out on the high seas. Sadly, forced labor has been <a href="https://www.ap.org/explore/seafood-from-slaves/">widely documented</a> in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/27/world/outlaw-ocean-thailand-fishing-sea-slaves-pets.html">fishing</a> <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/southeastasia/publication/3428/seabound-the-journey-to-modern-slavery-on-the-high-seas/">world</a>, but the true extent of the problem has remained largely unknown. </p>
<p>Our team wanted to say more about how forced labor is being used in fisheries, and the breakthrough came once we asked a key question that drove this project: What if vessels that forced labor behave in observable, fundamentally different ways from vessels that do not? </p>
<p>To answer this, we first looked at 22 vessels known to have used forced labor. We got their historical satellite tracking data from <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/">Global Fishing Watch</a> – a nonprofit organization that promotes ocean sustainability using near-real-time fishing data – and used it to find commonalities in how these vessels behaved. To further inform what to look for in the satellite monitoring data, we met with human rights groups, including <a href="https://libertyshared.org/">Liberty Shared</a>, <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/">Greenpeace</a> and the <a href="https://ejfoundation.org/">Environmental Justice Foundation</a>, to determine which of these vessel behaviors might indicate a potential risk of forced labor. </p>
<p>This list of indicators included vessel behaviors like spending more time on the high seas, traveling farther from ports than other vessels and fishing more hours per day than other boats. For example, sometimes these suspicious vessels would be at sea for many months at a time.</p>
<p>Now that we had a good idea of the “risky” behaviors that signal the potential use of forced labor, our team, with the help of Google data scientists, used machine learning techniques to look for similar behavioral patterns in thousands of other vessels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two fishing boats docked next to a warehouse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375963/original/file-20201218-21-rna1d5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vessels using forced labor were found in every ocean and visited ports around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/fishing-cutters-in-harbor-vlissingen-the-royalty-free-image/1165710648?adppopup=true">kruwt/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shockingly widespread</h2>
<p>We examined 16,000 fishing vessels using data from 2012 to 2018. Between 14% and 26% of those boats showed suspicious behavior that suggests a high likelihood that they are exploiting forced labor. This means that in those six years, as many as <a href="https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2016238117">100,000 people may have been victims of forced labor</a>. We don’t know whether those boats are still active or how many high-risk vessels there may be on the seas today. But according to Global Fishing Watch, as of 2018, there were nearly <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/datasets-and-code/vessel-identity/">13,000 vessels operating</a> in industrial longliner, trawler and squid jigger fleets.</p>
<p>Squid jiggers lure their catch to the surface at night using bright lights; longliner boats trail a line with baited hooks; and trawlers pull fishing nets through the water behind them. Squid jiggers had the highest percentage of vessels that exhibited behaviors that indicate the potential use of forced labor, followed closely by longliner fishing vessels and, to a lesser extent, trawlers.</p>
<p>Another key finding from our study is that forced labor violations are likely occurring in all major ocean basins, both on the high seas and within national jurisdictions. High-risk vessels frequented ports across 79 countries in 2018, with the ports predominantly located in Africa, Asia and South America. Also notable for frequent visits by these suspicious vessels were Canada, the United States, New Zealand and several European countries. These ports represent both potential sources of exploited labor as well as transfer points for seafood caught using forced labor.</p>
<p>As it stands now, our model is a proof of concept that still needs to be tested in the real world. By having the model assess vessels already caught using forced labor, we were able to show that the model was accurate 92% of the time when it flagged suspicious vessels. In the future, our team hopes to further validate and improve the model by gathering more information on known forced labor cases.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A California game warden boat next to a fishing boat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375965/original/file-20201218-15-513cfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local governments already enforce fishing regulations; our data on high-risk vessels could help inform action and policy to protect human rights too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CrabPoachersMarineSanctuaries/52ebf3a11d2f4fcca41138d60c8fe5f5/photo?Query=fishing%20AND%20enforcement&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=110&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Ben Margot</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Turning data into action</h2>
<p>Our team has built a predictive model that can identify vessels that are at high risk for engaging in forced labor. We believe our results could complement and inform existing efforts to combat human rights violations and promote supply chain transparency. Currently, our team is using individual vessel risk scores to determine forced labor risks for specific seafood products as a whole.</p>
<p>As we get more substantial data and improve the accuracy of the model, we hope that it can eventually be used to liberate victims of forced labor in fisheries, improve work conditions and help prevent human rights abuses from occurring in the first place.</p>
<p>We’re now working with <a href="https://globalfishingwatch.org/">Global Fishing Watch</a> to identify partners across governments, enforcement agencies and labor groups that can use our results to more effectively target vessel inspections. These inspections offer opportunities to both catch offenders and provide more data to feed into the model, improving its accuracy.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin McDonald and his colleagues received funding from the Walmart Foundation for this work, although the Walmart Foundation was not directly involved in the research.</span></em></p>Forced labor is a widespread problem in fisheries on the high seas. Between 2012 and 2018, an estimated 100,000 people may have been victims of forced labor on thousands of different boats.Gavin McDonald, Senior Project Researcher, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1366732020-04-28T12:10:37Z2020-04-28T12:10:37ZScientists at work: Uncovering the mystery of when and where sharks give birth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330807/original/file-20200427-145566-12cpxhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Using new technology to answer questions about shark reproduction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.blueelementsimaging.com">Tanya Houppermans</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you have a toddler, or if you encountered one in the last year, you’ve almost certainly experienced the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZsoesa55w">“Baby Shark” song</a>. Somehow, every kid seems to know this song, but scientists actually know very little about <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2016/07/great-white-shark-research-population-behavior/">where and when sharks give birth</a>. The origins of these famous baby sharks are still largely a mystery.</p>
<p>Many of the large iconic shark species – like great whites, hammerheads, blue sharks and tiger sharks – cross hundreds or thousands of miles of ocean every year. Because they’re so wide-ranging, much of sharks’ lives, including their reproductive habits, remains a secret. Scientists have struggled to figure out precisely where and how often sharks mate, the length of their gestation, and many aspects of the birthing process. </p>
<p><a href="https://hannahverkamp.wixsite.com/profile">I am a Ph.D. student</a> studying shark ecology and reproduction and am on a team of researchers hoping to answer two important questions: Where and when do sharks give birth?</p>
<h2>In need of innovation</h2>
<p>Until very recently, the technology to answer these questions did not exist. But marine biologist James Sulikowski, a professor at Arizona State University and my research mentor, changed that. He developed a new satellite tag called the Birth-Tag with the help of the technology company <a href="https://www.lotek.com">Lotek Wireless</a>. He has no stake in the company. Using this new satellite tag, our team is working to uncover where and when tiger sharks give birth and is demonstrating a proof of concept for how scientists can do the same for other large shark species. </p>
<p>The Birth-Tag is a small, egg-shaped device that we insert into the uterus of a pregnant shark where it will remain dormant and hidden among the fetal sharks throughout pregnancy. This kind of tag has never before been used on sharks, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40317-019-0184-4">similar implanted tags</a> have been used to figure out the birthing locations of terrestrial mammals, such as deer, for decades with great success. When a tagged mother shark gives birth, the tag will be expelled alongside the babies and float to the sea surface. Once it senses dry air, the tag transmits its location to a passing satellite, which then sends that location and time of transmission back to our lab. As soon as we download this information, we know where and when that shark gave birth.</p>
<p>After years of fine-tuning this new technology, we launched the first phase of the study in December of 2019 and began deploying the tags. Once the study was approved by the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees at both Arizona State University and the University of Miami, as well as the Bahamian government, we set out to find some tiger sharks. To do this, our team of researchers from the <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/sulikowskilab/home">Sulikowski Shark and Fish Conservation Lab</a> and the <a href="https://sharkresearch.rsmas.miami.edu">Shark Research and Conservation Program</a> at the University of Miami led by marine biologist Neil Hammerschlag, traveled to the crystal-clear waters of Tiger Beach off Grand Bahama Island to tag tiger sharks.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330802/original/file-20200427-145525-180kd6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tiger sharks are large and powerful predators. Getting close enough for a check-up is not easy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.blueelementsimaging.com/">Tanya Houppermans</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Up close with an apex predator</h2>
<p>Tiger Beach is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3354/ab00648">hot spot for female tiger sharks</a> of many different life stages, including large pregnant individuals. These pregnant females may be aggregating in the warm, calm waters of Tiger Beach to take refuge and speed up their gestation.</p>
<p>The high number of pregnant sharks in this small area makes finding one much easier, but actually catching and bringing a 10-foot-plus shark to the boat is no easy task. We fish for the sharks <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Integrating-Physiological-and-Reflex-Biomarkers-of-Jerome/01db87057ab3142d134095d3340345d971277a1c/figure/1">using drumlines</a>, and it can take several hours to safely catch, pull in by hand, and secure one of these powerful creatures next to the boat.</p>
<p>Once we catch a female tiger shark, we first take several length and girth measurements to get an idea of her general health and to see if she is sexually mature. Then we check for bite marks, which are evidence of a recent mating event.</p>
<p>After we collect this baseline information, we rotate her upside down to coax her into a trance-like state called <a href="https://www.sharktrust.org/tonic-immobility">tonic immobility</a>. Tonic immobility is a natural reflex in many sharks that induces a state of physical inactivity. This keeps the powerful shark calm and still for the most exciting part of the workup, the part where my experience comes into play: the pregnancy check.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330800/original/file-20200427-145513-1m8s6jo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A not-so-routine ultrasound.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.blueelementsimaging.com/">Tanya Houppermans</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Expecting</h2>
<p>Just like the ultrasounds used on humans, we use a mobile ultrasound machine to figure out if a shark is expecting. I put on a pair of goggles that allow me to see everything the ultrasound sees, lean over the side of the boat, and place the probe onto the upside down shark’s abdomen. The image is usually fuzzy at first as water splashes over the shark and up onto the boat. The team holds the shark still as I slowly maneuver the probe along her belly. Then, if she’s pregnant, something magical happens.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330801/original/file-20200427-145513-nuf0v8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A happy healthy baby is a welcome sight for any mother.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newcollege.asu.edu/james-sulikowski">James Sulikowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wriggling baby tiger sharks, up to 40 of them packed tightly together inside their mother’s womb, appear in front of my eyes. The image also appears on a screen held by another team member on the boat, and everyone cheers as they gather around to take a peek into the secret world of unborn sharks. We spy on them as they pump fluid through their still-developing gills, and we watch in awe as they wiggle around, blissfully unaware that anything extraordinary is happening outside in the world. Once we have enough data on the approximate size of the offspring – which gives us an idea of how far along the pregnancy is – it’s time to tag the mama shark.</p>
<p>As I hold the probe as still as possible to keep a visual of the shark’s internal anatomy, Dr. Sulikowski takes the Birth-Tag and uses a custom-designed applicator to carefully insert it into the uterus through the urogenital opening. No surgery required, the tagging procedure is complete in a matter of minutes. Once the tag is inside the uterus, we rotate the shark upright to wake her and release her back to the open ocean. I am filled with hope as I watch her swim gracefully away to continue her pregnancy, with a stow-away Birth-Tag hidden among her unborn offspring.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330813/original/file-20200427-145530-1paqeo1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These apex predatory sharks are important to ecosystems around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.blueelementsimaging.com/">Tanya Houppermans</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Solving the mystery</h2>
<p>Last December, we deployed the first Birth-Tags on three pregnant tiger sharks. For tiger sharks, pregnancy is thought to last <a href="http://sedarweb.org/docs/wsupp/S21_RD07_AQUA15(4)_Cycles2.pdf">12-16 months</a>, but researchers have little in the way of hard data. Since these tagged sharks ranged from recently mated to mid-gestation, an added bonus of this study is that it might help refine estimates of the length of pregnancy for this species.</p>
<p>Although we work in The Bahamas, a <a href="https://www.epicdiving.com/bahamas-shark-sanctuary-conservation/">shark sanctuary</a> where it is illegal to kill sharks, tiger sharks <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fsrep11202">migrate extensively</a>. As such, each tagged shark will likely spend time outside of The Bahamas in unprotected waters where she will have to navigate carefully to avoid interaction with fishing gear. Tiger sharks are considered <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/39378/2913541">near threatened</a> by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and their populations are currently in decline. The data we gain from this first round of tags will give us and policymakers information that could inform future protections for this species.</p>
<p>We are currently waiting to receive a notification from our online <a href="https://www.argos-system.org/argos/who-we-are/international-cooperation/">ARGOS satellite system</a> that will alert us that one of our sharks has given birth. When that happens, we will be the first in the world to know, in close to real time, where and when tiger sharks give birth.</p>
<p>Many species of shark are <a href="https://elifesciences.org/articles/00590">threatened with extinction</a>, and understanding their reproductive cycles is key to the effective conservation of these ecologically important and beautiful creatures. Using the Birth-Tag, we are at the cusp of unlocking this information about tiger sharks and will hopefully show that this can be done for many more species. </p>
<p>We are planning future expeditions to deploy many more Birth-Tags, but for now, we’ll just have to keep singing the “Baby Shark” song as we patiently wait for our first glimpse into the private lives of these incredible creatures.</p>
<p><em>This story has been updated to remove a photo of the Birth-Tag.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136673/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Verkamp works for Arizona State University as a Research Associate in the Sulikowski Shark and Fish Conservation Lab.
The research is funded by the Herbert W. Hoover Foundation. </span></em></p>Researchers are using a newly developed satellite tag to study previously unknown aspects of tiger shark reproduction. This approach could be used on other difficult-to-study shark species.Hannah Verkamp, PhD Student in Marine Biology, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323432020-02-24T04:00:18Z2020-02-24T04:00:18Z‘It is quite startling’: 4 photos from space that show Australia before and after the recent rain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316780/original/file-20200224-24664-l5xobs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C8%2C1479%2C615&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Map</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: These before-and-after-images from several sources –<a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/">NASA’s Worldview application</a>, <a href="https://nationalmap.gov.au/">National Map</a> by Geoscience Australia and <a href="http://maps.dea.ga.gov.au/">Digital Earth Australia</a> – show how the Australian landscape has responded to huge rainfall on the east coast over the last month. We asked academic experts to reflect on the story they tell:</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Warragamba Dam, Sydney</h2>
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<p><strong>Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.</strong></p>
<p>This map from <a href="http://maps.dea.ga.gov.au/#share=s-4JiYUAgVhtTSiJr3tC0eoShZ820">Digital Earth Australia</a> shows a significant increase in water stored in Lake Burragorang. Lake Burragorang is the name of water body maintained behind the Warragamba Dam wall and the images show mainly the southern source to the lake, which is the Wollondilly River. A short section of the Coxs River source is also visible at the top of the images.</p>
<p>The Warragamba catchment received around 240mm of rain during the second week of February, which produced around 1,000 gigalitres (GL) of runoff to the lake. This took the water storage in the lake from 42% of capacity to more than 80%.</p>
<p>Unlike a typical swimming pool, the lake does not generally have vertical walls. Instead, the river valley runs deeper in the centre and more shallow around the edges. As water storage volumes increase, so does the surface area of water, which is the key feature visible in the images.</p>
<p>Leading up to this intense rainfall event, many smaller events occurred, but failed to produce any significant runoff. The catchment was just too dry. Dry soils act like a sponge and soak up rainfall, rather than allowing it to run off to produce flows in waterways. </p>
<p>The catchment is now in a much wetter state and we can expect to see smaller rainfall events effectively produce further runoff. So water storage levels should be maintained, at least in the short term.</p>
<p>However in the longer term, extended periods of low rainfall and warm temperatures will make this catchment drier.</p>
<p>In the absence of further very intense rainfall events, Sydney will lapse back into drought and diminishing water storages. </p>
<p>This pattern of decreasing storage, broken only by very intense rainfall, can be observed in Sydney’s water storage history.</p>
<p>It is a pattern likely to be exacerbated further in future.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wivenhoe Dam, Brisbane</h2>
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<p><strong>Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.</strong></p>
<p>Lake Wivenhoe is the body of water maintained behind Wivenhoe Dam wall in southeast Queensland. It is the main water storage for Brisbane as well as much of surrounding southeast Queensland.</p>
<p>This image from <a href="https://nationalmap.gov.au/#share=s-49Cnpv20Joos7vk2Wjrk6N2Xskn">National Map</a> shows a visible change in colour from brown to green in the region around the lake. It is quite startling. </p>
<p>This is especially the case to the west of the lake, in mountain range areas such as Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe. Many of these areas were in very severe drought in January. Stanthorpe officially <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/queensland-town-has-officially-run-out-of-water/vi-BBYV0IJ">ran out of water</a>. The February rain has begun to fill many important water storage areas and completely transformed the landscape.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this part of Australia is highly prone to drought and we can expect to see this pattern recur over coming decades.</p>
<p>Much climate science research indicates more extreme weather events in future. That means more extreme high temperatures, more intense droughts and more severe wet weather. </p>
<p>There are many challenges ahead for Australian water managers as they seek to overcome the inevitable booms and busts of future water availability.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-threaten-drinking-water-safety-the-consequences-could-last-for-decades-129353">Bushfires threaten drinking water safety. The consequences could last for decades</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Australia-wide</h2>
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<p><strong>Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania</strong></p>
<p>It’s clear from this map above, from <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/">NASA Worldview</a>, the monsoon has finally arrived in northern Australia and there’s been quite a lot of rain.</p>
<p>On the whole, you can see how rapidly the Australian environment can respond to significant rainfall events. </p>
<p>It’s important to remember that most of that greening up will be the growth of grasses, which respond more rapidly after rain.</p>
<p>The forests that burned will not be responding that quickly. The recovery process will be ongoing and within six months to a year you’d expect to see significant regrowth in the eucalyptus forests.</p>
<p>Other more fire-sensitive vegetation, like rainforests, may not exhibit the same sort of recovery. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-crisis-has-been-unfolding-for-years-4-photos-of-australia-from-space-before-and-after-the-bushfires-129450">'This crisis has been unfolding for years': 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
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<p><strong>Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania</strong></p>
<p>This slider from <a href="https://nationalmap.gov.au/#share=s-tVPgOYmLi9ERznp2Cmpg27LHkrp">National Map</a> shows both fire impact, and greening up after rain.</p>
<p>On the left – an area west of Cooma on December 24 – you can see the yellow treeless areas, indicating the extent of the drought, and the dark green forest vegetation. This image also shows quite a lot of smoke, as you’d expect.</p>
<p>On the right – the area on February 22 – a lot of those yellow areas are now significantly greener after the rain. However, some of those dark green forest areas are now brown or red, where they have been burnt. </p>
<p>It’s clear there is a long road ahead for recovery of these forests that were so badly burned in the recent fires but they will start resprouting in the coming months. </p>
<p><em>Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the <a href="https://www.uow.edu.au/science-medicine-health/research/cermb/nsw-bushfire-risk-management-research-hub/">NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
It’s important to remember that most of this greening is due to growth of grasses, which respond more rapidly after rain.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1295572020-01-09T18:51:52Z2020-01-09T18:51:52Z6 things to ask yourself before you share a bushfire map on social media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309222/original/file-20200109-80148-zyu1n7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C1302%2C693&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NASA’s Worldview software gives you a satellite view of Earth right now, and can help track the spread of fires. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=114.34749631694407,-50.093019230617045,181.39046506694407,-19.577394230617045&t=2020-01-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&l=Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Coastlines,MODIS_Combined_Thermal_Anomalies_All,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor">Nasa Worldview</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent days, many worrying bushfire maps have been circulating online, some appearing to suggest all of Australia is burning. </p>
<p>You might have seen this example, decried by some as <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/viral-australian-bushfire-maps-confusing-false-information">misleading</a>, prompting this Instagram post by its creator:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/B67bRtPnVzR","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>As he explained, the image isn’t a NASA photo. What a satellite actually “sees” is quite different. </p>
<p>I’ll explain how we use data collected by satellites to estimate how much of an area is burning, or has already been burnt, and what this information should look like once it’s mapped.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-crisis-of-underinsurance-threatens-to-scar-rural-australia-permanently-129343">A crisis of underinsurance threatens to scar rural Australia permanently</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Reflective images</h2>
<p>When astronauts look out their window in space, this is what they see: </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1213531558113632256"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s similar to what you might see from an aeroplane window, but higher and covering a wider area.</p>
<p>As you read this, many unmanned satellites are orbiting and photographing Earth. These images are used to monitor fires in real-time. They fall into two categories: reflective and thermal. </p>
<p>Reflective images capture information in the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum (in other words, what we can see). But they also capture information in wavelengths we can’t see, such as infrared wavelengths.</p>
<p>If we use only the visible wavelengths, we can render the image similar to what we might see with the naked eye from a satellite. We call these “true colour” images.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309003/original/file-20200108-107235-zihue2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=615&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This is a true colour image of south-east Australia, taken on January 4th 2020 from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite. Fire smoke is grey, clouds are white, forests are dark green, brown areas are dryland agricultural areas, and the ocean is blue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/307pDDX</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Note that the image doesn’t have political boundaries, as these aren’t physical features. To make satellite imagery useful for navigation, we overlay the map with location points.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309014/original/file-20200108-107214-1493w5s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image shown as true colour, with the relevant geographical features overlaid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2TafEMH</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From this, we can predict where the fires are by looking at the smoke. However, the fires themselves are not directly visible. </p>
<h2>‘False colour’ images</h2>
<p>Shortwave infrared bands are less sensitive to smoke and more sensitive to fire, which means they can tell us where fire is present. </p>
<p>Converting these wavelengths into visible colours produces what we call “false colour” images. For instance:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309015/original/file-20200108-107200-18mtd8x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image, this time shown as false colour. Now, the fire smoke is partially transparent grey while the clouds aren’t. Red shows the active fires and brown shows where bushfires have recently burnt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2NhzRfN</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this shortwave infrared image, we start to “see” under the smoke, and can identify active fires. We can also learn more about the areas that are already burnt. </p>
<h2>Thermal and hotspots</h2>
<p>As their name suggests, thermal images measure how hot or cold everything in the frame is. Active fires are detected as “hotspots” and mapped as points on the surface. </p>
<p>While reflective imagery is only useful when obtained by a satellite during daytime, thermal hotspots can be measured at night – doubling our capacity to observe active fires.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309011/original/file-20200108-107204-1ax9guv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same image shown as false color, with hotspots overlaid in red.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview / https://go.nasa.gov/2rZNIj9</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This information can be used to create maps showing the aggregation of hotspots over several days, weeks or months. </p>
<p><a href="https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/">Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth hotspots service</a> shows hotspots across the continent in the last 72 hours. It’s worth reading the “about” section to learn the limitations or potential for error in the map.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spread-the-word-the-value-of-local-information-in-disaster-response-11626">Spread the word: the value of local information in disaster response</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When hotspots, which show “hot” pixels, are shown as extremely big icons, or are collected over long periods, the results can be deceiving. They can indicate a much larger area to be under fire than what is really burning.</p>
<p>For example, it would be wrong to believe all the areas in red in the map below are burning or have already burnt. It’s also unclear over what period of time the hotspots were aggregated.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309008/original/file-20200108-107249-1klv52u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The ‘world map of fire hotspots’ from the Environmental Investigation Agency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Investigation Agency / https://eia-international.org/news/watching-the-world-burn-fires-threaten-the-worlds-tropical-forests-and-millions-of-people/</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Get smart</h2>
<p>Considering all of the above, there are some key questions you can ask to gauge the authenticity of a bushfire map. These are: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Where does this map come from, and who produced it? </p></li>
<li><p>is this a single satellite image, or one using hotspots overlaid on a map? </p></li>
<li><p>what are the colours representing? </p></li>
<li><p>do I know when this was taken? </p></li>
<li><p>if this map depicts hotspots, over what period of time were they collected? A day, a whole year?</p></li>
<li><p>is the size of the hotspots representative of the area that is actually burning? </p></li>
</ul>
<p>So, the next time you see a bushfire map, think twice before pressing the share button.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Juan Pablo Guerschman receives funding from the Australian Department of Agriculture. </span></em></p>By understanding how bushfire maps are created, and what their features represent, you can get better at spotting fake ones.Juan Pablo Guerschman, Senior Research Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1294502020-01-07T06:03:49Z2020-01-07T06:03:49Z‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308750/original/file-20200107-123389-1kyi7dz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C35%2C1172%2C756&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Use the slider tool in the images below to see before and after NASA satellite images of Australia's fire and drought effects.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: We pulled four before-and-after-images from <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov">NASA’s Worldview application</a>, and asked bushfire researcher Grant Williamson to reflect on the story they tell. Here’s what he told us:</em></p>
<hr>
<p>I’ve been studying fires for more than a decade. I use satellite data to try to understand the global and regional patterns in fire – what drives it and how it will shift in the future as our climate and land use patterns change. </p>
<p>When I look at these images I think: this is a crisis we have seen coming for years. It’s something I have been watching unfold.</p>
<p>Look at the sheer scale of it. Seeing this much fire in the landscape in such a broad area, seeing so much severe fire at once, this quantity and concentration of smoke – it is astonishing. I haven’t seen it like this before. </p>
<h2>November 1, 2019 and January 3, 2020</h2>
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<p>In this comparison, you can see November last year versus now. In the present picture (on the right hand side) you can see a vast quantity of intense fires currently burning right down the eastern seaboard and a huge amount of smoke. It’s been blowing out across toward New Zealand for weeks now. </p>
<p>The scale of the current fires is definitely unusual. In a typical year, you might see, for example, a large fire in the alps (near Mount Kosciuszko) or in the Blue Mountains – but they would be isolated events. </p>
<p>What’s striking here is that there is so much going on at once. I have never seen it like this before. </p>
<h2>Black Saturday smoke, Feburary 8, 2009 and the 2019-2020 bushfires smoke, January 3, 2020</h2>
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<p>This one is comparing two smoke events: one from Black Saturday and one from the current fires. In both cases, huge quantities of smoke was released. Both times, the sort of forest burning is very dense, there is a lot of wet eucalypt forest here which naturally has a high fuel load and that’s creating all that smoke. This type of forest only burns during extreme weather conditions.</p>
<p>Simply due to the scale of it and the fact that it’s been going on so long, I would say the current event is worse than Black Saturday, in terms of the quantity of smoke.</p>
<h2>East Australia, 10 years ago vs today</h2>
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<p>In this image, we can the impact of drought. A decade ago, on the left hand side, it was clearly quite green along eastern Australia. That green shows there is a lot of growing vegetation there: pasture crops, grasses and a very wet environment.</p>
<p>If you compare that to the current year, on the right hand side, you can see it’s now extremely brown and extremely dry. There’s not much in the way of vegetation. That’s a result of drought and high temperatures. </p>
<h2>Kangaroo Island, 2 months ago vs today</h2>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="754" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=00e3666c-3109-11ea-b9b8-0edaf8f81e27"></iframe>
<p>In this image, you can see Kangaroo Island two months ago on the left hand side, versus today. </p>
<p>The main thing I note here is the drying. The “before” image is so much greener than the “after” image. So there’s a real lack of rainfall that’s driving fire severity in this area. You can really see how much the island has dried out. </p>
<hr>
<p>This has been an extraordinary year for climate and weather, and that’s manifesting now in these unprecedented bushfires. It’s not over yet. </p>
<p>But what’s important is the lessons we draw from this crisis and doing as much as we can to reduce the risk in future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the <a href="https://www.uow.edu.au/science-medicine-health/research/cermb/nsw-bushfire-risk-management-research-hub/">NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We pulled four before-and-after NASA satellite images and asked bushfire researcher Grant Williamson to reflect on the story they tell.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorMolly Glassey, Digital Editor, The ConversationWes Mountain, Social Media + Visual Storytelling EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1263442019-12-05T18:33:25Z2019-12-05T18:33:25ZWe’re using lasers and toaster-sized satellites to beam information faster through space<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305310/original/file-20191205-16520-78opnr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C0%2C4185%2C2828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The electromagnetic spectrum we can access with current technologies is completely occupied. This means experts have to think of creative ways to meet our rocketing demands for data.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/14812017458/">NASA Johnson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Satellites are becoming increasingly important in our lives, as they help us meet a demand for more data, exchanged at higher speeds. This is why we are exploring new ways of improving satellite communication.</p>
<p>Satellite technology is used to navigate, forecast the weather, monitor Earth from space, receive TV signals from space, and connect to remote places through tools such as satellite phones and <a href="https://www.nbnco.com.au/learn/network-technology/sky-muster-explained">NBN’s Sky Muster satellites</a>. </p>
<p>All these communications use radio waves. These are electromagnetic waves that propagate through space and, to a certain degree, through obstacles such as walls.</p>
<p>Each communication system uses a frequency band allocated for it, and each band makes up part of the <a href="https://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/toolbox/emspectrum1.html">electromagnetic spectrum</a> – which is the name given to the range of all types of electromagnetic radiation.</p>
<p>But the electromagnetic spectrum we are able to use with current technology is a finite resource, and is now completely occupied. This means old services have to make room for new ones, or higher frequency bands have to be used. </p>
<p>While this poses technological challenges, one promising way forward is optical communication. </p>
<h2>Communication with lasers</h2>
<p>Instead of using radio waves to carry the information, we can use light from lasers as the carrier. While technically still part of the electromagnetic spectrum, optical frequencies are significantly higher, which means we can use them to transfer data at higher speeds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/twisted-light-could-dramatically-boost-internet-speeds-57340">Twisted light could dramatically boost internet speeds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, one disadvantage is that a laser cannot propagate through walls, and can even be blocked by clouds. While this is problematic on Earth, and for communication between satellites and Earth, it’s no problem for communication between satellites.</p>
<p>On Earth, optical communication via fibre optic cables connects continents and provides enormous data exchanges. This is the technology that allows <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/11562024/too-embarrassed-to-ask-what-is-the-cloud-and-how-does-it-work">the cloud</a> to exist, and online services to be provided. </p>
<p>Optical communication between satellites doesn’t use fibre optic cables, but involves light propagating through space. This is called “free space optical communication”, and can be used to not only deliver data from satellites to the ground, but also to connect satellites in space. </p>
<p>In other words, free space optical communication will provide the same massive connectivity in space we already have on Earth. </p>
<p>Some systems such as the <a href="https://artes.esa.int/edrs-global">European Data Relay System</a> are already operational, and others like SpaceX’s <a href="https://www.space.com/see-spacex-starlink-satellites-in-night-sky.html">Starlink</a> continue to be developed.</p>
<p>But there are still many challenges to overcome, and we’re limited by current technology. My colleagues and I are working on making optical, as well as radio-frequency, data links even faster and more secure.</p>
<h2>CubeSats</h2>
<p>So far, a lot of effort has gone into the research and development of radio-frequency technology. This is how we know data rates are at their highest physical limit and can’t be further increased. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305308/original/file-20191205-16538-drnyo5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first CubeSats were launched in 2003 on a Russian Rockot launch vehicle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alloyjared/13278111165/">Jared/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While a single radio-frequency link can provide data rates of 10Gbps with large antennas, an optical link can achieve rates 10 to 100 times higher, using antennas that are 10 to 100 times smaller.</p>
<p>These small antennas are in fact optical lenses, and their compact size allows them to be integrated into small satellites called CubeSats. </p>
<p>CubeSats are not larger than a shoebox or toaster, but can employ high speed data links to other satellites or the ground.</p>
<p>They are currently used for a wide range of tasks including earth observation, communications and scientific experiments in space. And while they’re not able to provide all services from space, they play an important role in current and future satellite systems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problems-with-small-satellites-and-what-australias-space-agency-can-do-to-help-108156">The problems with small satellites – and what Australia's Space Agency can do to help</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another advantage of optical communication is increased security. The light from a laser forms a narrow beam, which has to be pointed from a sender to a receiver. Since this beam is very narrow, the communication doesn’t interfere with other receivers and it’s very hard, if not impossible, to eavesdrop on the communication. This makes optical systems more secure than radio electromagnetic systems. </p>
<p>Optical communication can also be used for <a href="https://qt.eu/understand/underlying-principles/quantum-key-distribution-qkd/">Quantum Key Distribution</a>. This technology allows the absolute secure exchange of encryption keys for safe communications.</p>
<h2>What can we expect from this?</h2>
<p>While it’s exciting to develop systems for space, and to launch satellites, the real benefit of satellite systems is felt on Earth. </p>
<p>High speed communication provided by optical data links will improve connectivity for all of us. Notably, remote areas which currently have relatively slow connections will experience better access to remote health and remote learning. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-new-technologies-are-shaking-up-health-care-42318">How new technologies are shaking up health care</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Better data links will also let us deliver images and videos from space with less delay and higher resolution. This will improve the way we manage our resources, including <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/community-safety/flood/wofs">water</a>, agriculture and forestry. </p>
<p>They will also <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/earth-obs/case-studies/mapping-bushfires">provide vital real-time information in disaster scenarios such as bushfires</a>. The potential applications of optical communication technology are vast.</p>
<h2>Banding knowledge together</h2>
<p>Working in optical satellite communication is challenging, as it combines many different fields and research areas including telecommunication, photonics and manufacturing. </p>
<p>Currently, our technology is far from achieving what is theoretically possible, and there’s great room for improvement. This is why there’s a strong focus on collaboration. </p>
<p>In Australia, there are two major programs facilitating this - the Australian Space Agency run by the federal government, and the <a href="https://smartsatcrc.com/">SmartSat Cooperative Research Centre</a> (CRC), also supported by the federal government.</p>
<p>Through the SmartSat CRC program, my colleagues and I will spend the next seven years tackling a range of applied research problems in this area.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126344/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gottfried Lechner works for the University of South Australia and the SmartSat CRC. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Defence and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. </span></em></p>Free space optical communication will allow the same connectivity in space we already have on Earth. And this will provide benefits across a number of sectors.Gottfried Lechner, Associate Professor and Director of the Institute for Telecommunications Research, University of South Australia, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1130212019-03-08T11:44:13Z2019-03-08T11:44:13ZThe US government might charge for satellite data again – here’s why that would be a big mistake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262466/original/file-20190306-100790-n9xqh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Landsat view of Mount St. Helens in 2011.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://remotesensing.usgs.gov/gallery/image_collections?img:281:3">U.S. Geological Survey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Landsat is one of <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/2014_national_plan_for_civil_earth_observations.pdf">the most important U.S. satellite systems</a>. Since the program’s launch in 1972, Landsat satellites have provided the longest-running terrestrial satellite record and collected <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/9/1363">more than 5.6 million images</a>. </p>
<p>For a long time, the U.S. government charged a fee for every Landsat image. But this changed on Oct. 1, 2008, when the U.S. Geological Survey <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/landsat">opened the Landsat archive</a> and made it free for everyone to use. </p>
<p>This open data policy has led to a dramatic increase in the use of Landsat data. Studies have used Landsat data to map <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6160/850">global forest loss</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20584">surface water extent</a>, <a href="http://doi.org/10.2788/253582">human settlements</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2012.748992">land cover</a>, among other features. </p>
<p>However, the free and open Landsat data policy is now under scrutiny. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04874-y">An April 2018 news report</a> revealed that the Department of the Interior was considering putting a price on Landsat data again. The decision will come sometime this year.</p>
<p>This potential policy change is concerning. The <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/land-resources/nli/landsat/2018-2023-landsat-science-team?qt-science_support_page_related_con=3#qt-science_support_page_related_con">USGS-NASA Landsat Science Team</a>, of which <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9ODFYW4AAAAJ&hl=en">I am a member</a>, published a study on Feb. 27 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.016">highlighting the major benefits</a> of Landsat’s free data policy. For the Landsat program to remain successful, free and open data is the key. </p>
<h2>1. Encouraged more data use and research</h2>
<p>Before the free data policy, the USGS and private sector sold at most 3,000 Landsat images per month. At the time, a single Landsat image cost approximately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.010">US$600</a>.</p>
<p>In the first full year of free data policy, users downloaded more than 1 million images. That number has shot up over time, with more than 20 million images downloaded in 2017.</p>
<p>The number of Landsat-related scientific publications also increased rapidly. More than four times as many scientific publications came out in 2017 as did in 2005.</p>
<p><iframe id="rC6lA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rC6lA/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The free data policy has opened the doors for new research. The use of Landsat data to track landscape changes over time increased rapidly after the new policy, which has advanced remote sensing science in a variety of ways. With the denser Landsat data, scientists can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1452075">create better land cover maps</a>; more accurately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.06.013">detect landscape changes</a>; and map <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034008">natural resources</a> in near real-time. </p>
<p>Landsat data is also archived by several commercial cloud computing services, such as Google Earth Engine and Amazon Web Services. This allows less-established institutions to use Landsat data and lets people share the code they used to analyze images more easily. Charging a fee for Landsat data would jeopardize the continued availability of Landsat data in private sector archives.</p>
<p><iframe id="MC3Jw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/MC3Jw/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. Created economic benefits</h2>
<p>In a 2014 paper, <a href="https://www.fgdc.gov/ngac/meetings/december-2014/ngac-landsat-economic-value-paper-2014-update.pdf">the National Geospatial Advisory Committee</a> analyzed 16 economic sectors – such as water consumption, wildfire mapping and agriculture – in which Landsat data has lead to substantial productivity savings. </p>
<p>Just for the year of 2011, the estimated economic benefit of Landsat data was more than $1.7 billion for U.S. users and $400 million for users outside the U.S. </p>
<p>For example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency provides crop insurance to U.S. farmers. More than <a href="https://www.fgdc.gov/ngac/meetings/december-2014/ngac-landsat-economic-value-paper-2014-update.pdf">1.2 million policies are issued every year</a>. One in five policies are issued in areas subject to flooding, leading to higher premiums. </p>
<p>Before Landsat data was used for mapping crop flood zones, the flooding areas were very broad, causing many farmers with little potential for flooding to pay a lot more. Today, the flood rate maps are updated constantly based on newly collected Landsat images. These detailed zones reduced the cost to farmers by more than $300 million per year. The researchers estimated that the Risk Management Agency would have to raise premiums for more than 200,000 policies each year, if it could not use Landsat data.</p>
<h2>3. Tightened international partnerships</h2>
<p>In the past, some proportion of the Landsat data was downloaded directly from the ground stations. The Landsat satellites did not have enough capability to store the data. In areas without a U.S. ground station, data was not downloaded to a U.S. archive, but into international cooperator ground stations. </p>
<p>The U.S. Landsat Global Archive Consolidation program collects this internationally stored data, then reprocesses it into a central archive, where it is made available to all users free of charge. </p>
<p>Since this initiative launched in 2010, it has ingested <a href="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0034425719300719-gr2_lrg.jpg">large amounts of satellite data that were not available in the U.S. archive before</a>. This has made historical Landsat data more accessible, while greatly increasing the temporal and spatial coverage of the U.S. satellite data archive. </p>
<p>Without the free Landsat data, this initiative would likely never have existed. The discontinuation of the open policy could affect its continued success. </p>
<p>What’s more, Landsat’s open policy stimulated other international Earth observation programs, such as the Copernicus Program of the European Union, to <a href="http://newsletter.copernicus.eu/article/free-and-open-data-policy-copernicus">make their data free</a>. If the Landsat program reverts to asking users to pay for data, our group worries that it may indirectly encourage other programs to do the same.</p>
<p>The program also encouraged international satellite programs to collaborate so that their databases worked together and followed similar standards. This has made it easier for scientists to combine data from multiple satellite systems for analysis. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262687/original/file-20190307-82681-es0ytp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Landsat imagery shows how Hurricane Irma churned up sediment in the Florida Keys in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://remotesensing.usgs.gov/gallery/image_collections?img:723:3">U.S. Geological Survey</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Keeping Landsat free and open</h2>
<p>The U.S. is a global leader in the collection and application of Earth observation remote sensing data. Open access to Landsat, as well as other satellite data, has become the norm. </p>
<p>Officials at the Department of the Interior are exploring the possibility of recovering some of Landsat’s operation costs from users. This is understandable. However, if Americans want to continue enjoying its societal benefits, then our group feels that the data needs to remain free and open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zhe Zhu receives funding from USGS and Climate Corporation.</span></em></p>Since 2008, Landsat data has been free for the world to use, spurring new applications and scientific research. But that door could soon slam shut.Zhe Zhu, Assistant Professor of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.