tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/taliban-peace-accord-82986/articlesTaliban peace accord – The Conversation2022-08-15T12:38:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1881322022-08-15T12:38:00Z2022-08-15T12:38:00ZA year after the fall of Kabul, Taliban’s false commitments on terrorism have been fully exposed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478925/original/file-20220812-6128-xe8uwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C48%2C5377%2C3531&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Taliban's success in taking control in Afghanistan has encouraged other militant groups.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-july-8-2022-shows-taliban-fighters-news-photo/1241790455?adppopup=true">Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the Taliban <a href="https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-kabul-bagram-e1ed33fe0c665ee67ba132c51b8e32a5">returned to power in Afghanistan</a> on Aug. 15, 2021, there were faint hopes that this time would be different.</p>
<p>The Taliban promised to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/afghanistan-taliban-women-school-1.6219358">respect girls’ education and women’s rights</a>, and to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-17/taliban-say-women-can-work-shifting-from-stance-before-9-11">not allow the country to become a breeding ground</a> for terrorism, <a href="https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/911Report_Exec.htm">as it had been</a> in the Taliban’s previous stint in government before the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/key-dates-us-involvement-afghanistan-since-911-2021-07-02/">2001 U.S. intervention</a>.</p>
<p>But a year after the fall of Kabul, the Taliban has failed to deliver on these promises and <a href="https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-taliban-one-year-on/">gradually become more repressive</a> as it tries to consolidate power in the country.</p>
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<p>Its <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122892">record on women’s rights</a> has been abysmal, as has its <a href="https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/afghanistan-kabul-residents-complain-about-unfair-distribution-of-humanitarian-aid-articleshow.html">distribution of much-needed humanitarian aid</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the view that the Taliban could meaningfully mitigate the counterterrorism concerns of the West has only grown more absurd since it first <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf">made such promises</a> as part of 2020’s Doha agreement to secure a U.S. exit. The Taliban’s leading political ranks remain dominated by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/haqqanis-afghanistan-taliban/2021/09/10/71f82620-123b-11ec-baca-86b144fc8a2d_story.html">wanted terrorists</a>, including members of the influential terrorist group the <a href="https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/haqqani_network.html">Haqqani Network</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IpUS-O4AAAAJ&hl=en">scholars who monitor</a> <a href="https://extremism.gwu.edu/andrew-mines">extremist groups in the region</a>, we believe terrorists in Afghanistan have only become more emboldened in the first year of Taliban rule. And despite isolated successful operations by the U.S., including the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-was-ayman-al-zawahri-where-does-his-death-leave-al-qaida-and-what-does-it-say-about-us-counterterrorism-188056">drone strike</a> that killed al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahri, we are still concerned that U.S.’s current counterterrorism policies are insufficient to contain the growing threat.</p>
<h2>False promises</h2>
<p>Taliban statements both before they took power and after suggested that the group – publicly, at least – was shunning <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-claim-unaware-al-qaida-leader-afghanistan-87919025">terrorist groups</a> and <a href="https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-tells-members-to-avoid-recruiting-foreign-fighters/31119080.html">foreign fighters</a>.</p>
<p>But the most recent <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N22/333/77/PDF/N2233377.pdf?OpenElement">United Nations security monitoring reports warned</a> that the Taliban are simply relocating some terrorist groups and individuals to make them more inconspicuous. Moreover, the Taliban are allowing the continued functioning of terrorist training camps, and potentially even awarding citizenship to some foreign fighters, the <a href="http://theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/03/al-qaida-enjoying-a-haven-in-afghanistan-under-taliban-un-warns">monitoring team reported in May 2022</a>. Their assessments suggests that al-Qaida “has a safe haven under the Taliban” while casting doubt over the Taliban’s intent to restrain other terrorist groups, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban-166873">ISIS-K, an offshoot of the Islamic State group</a>.</p>
<p>The Taliban’s disdain for its Doha commitment not to allow “individuals or groups, including al-Qaida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies” was exposed most recently in the case of al-Zawahri. Prior to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-was-ayman-al-zawahri-where-does-his-death-leave-al-qaida-and-what-does-it-say-about-us-counterterrorism-188056">terrorist leader’s death</a>, al-Zawahri was residing in downtown Kabul apparently under the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/08/02/what-ayman-al-zawahris-death-says-about-terrorism-in-taliban-run-afghanistan/">permission, invitation and protection</a> of top Taliban officials.</p>
<p>The accommodation of al-Qaida is not isolated. The Taliban has similarly been reluctant to crack down on the <a href="https://southasianvoices.org/the-untenable-ttp-pakistan-negotiations">Tehrik–e-Taliban Pakistan</a>, the Afghan Taliban’s deadly terrorist ally in Pakistan that has increased cross-border attacks on Pakistan following the U.S. withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan.</p>
<h2>Sheltering terrorists</h2>
<p>The circumstances of al-Zawahri’s death have <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-al-qaeda-chief-ayman-al-zawahiri-is-dead-whats-next-for-us-counterterrorism/">left many unknowns</a>. It is not clear who among the Taliban was aware of al-Zawahiri’s presence – the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-claim-unaware-al-qaida-leader-afghanistan-87919025">group’s initial statement</a> on the U.S. strike suggested that it had “no knowledge of his arrival and residence.” Nor is it immediately apparent how the targeted killing <a href="https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/al-qaeda-leader-killed-in-kabul-what-might-be-the-repercussions-for-the-taleban-and-afghanistan/">will affect</a> intra-Taliban dynamics, including for <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/after-al-zawahiris-killing-whats-next-us-afghanistan">younger</a> and more hard-line members who may push senior leadership to respond aggressively.</p>
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<img alt="A still from a video shows the bearded former al-Qaida leader dressed in white address the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478926/original/file-20220812-6089-whppmy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ayman al-Zawahri was found sheltering in Kabul.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/this-still-image-obtained-september-10-2012-from-news-photo/151856346?adppopup=true">IntelCenter/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Counterterrorism experts have also voiced concerns over <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/02/zawahris-death-and-afghanistans-future-00049239">which other</a> al-Qaida members the Taliban might be sheltering.</p>
<p>What is apparent is that at least some high-ranking Taliban felt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/opinion/ayman-al-zawahri-al-qaeda-afghanistan.html">comfortable enough</a>, despite public commitments, to host a terrorist leader who continued to incite violence against the West until his death.</p>
<p>The repercussions of this decision could further hamper the stability and well-being of Afghanistan. If the Taliban continue to fail on their commitments to steer clear of harboring militants, the country is likely to remain an international <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban.html?smid=tw-share">pariah</a>, which will only worsen its rampant problems and potentially steer Afghanistan toward <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/southasiasource/afghanistans-future-after-the-taliban-takeover/">another civil war</a>.</p>
<h2>Resistance to Taliban rule</h2>
<p>Despite their seemingly rapid takeover of the country in August 2021, the Taliban have yet to exert full control over all of Afghanistan. </p>
<p>In addition to the <a href="https://www.usip.org/events/state-afghanistans-economy-and-private-sector#:%7E:text=Afghanistan's%20economy%20and%20people%20have,of%20Afghan%20foreign%20exchange%20reserves.">severe economic crisis</a>, pockets of resistance persist, and in some areas appear to be growing. Reports suggest that by spring 2022, the number of armed groups challenging the Taliban’s authority had <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/afghan-fighting-season-ushers-in-new-anti-taliban-groups/6542148.html">grown significantly</a>. Among them is a breakaway Taliban faction led by an ethnic Hazara commander named <a href="https://8am.af/eng/mawlawi-mehdi-coherences-his-forces-in-balkhab-sar-e-pol/">Mawlawi Mehdi</a> and the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/08/afghanistan-panjshir-valley-taliban-resistance/">National Resistance Front</a> led by the son of Ahmad Shah Mahsud, the deceased former leader of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.</p>
<p>The Taliban have since deployed tens of thousands of their fighters to suppress <a href="https://8am.af/eng/taliban-deploys-30000-special-fighters-in-panjshir-baghlan-and-takhar/">both</a> <a href="https://8am.af/eng/mawlawi-mehdi-coherences-his-forces-in-balkhab-sar-e-pol/">groups</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, in May 2022, dozens of exiled warlords who fled the country rallied together to form the High Council of National Resistance. The <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/14/afghanistan-warlords-taliban-authority-comeback/">leaders of the council are demanding</a> a stake in their country’s future or else, in the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/exiled-afghan-warlord-organising-group-in-turkey-against-taliban-481388">words</a> of the Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, “Afghanistan will experience civil war once again.”</p>
<p>And then there is the challenge posed by <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban-166873">ISIS-K</a>. We <a href="https://newlinesinstitute.org/governance/smaller-and-smarter-defining-a-narrower-u-s-counterterrorism-mission-in-the-afghanistan-pakistan-region/">warned</a> back in February 2021 and <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2021/10/the-taliban-cant-take-on-the-islamic-state-alone/">again</a> in October that American drones and the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/evolving-taliban-isk-rivalry">Taliban’s animosity</a> for ISIS-K wouldn’t be enough to stop the group’s revival and violence. Indeed, in January 2022, we <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/the-islamic-state-threat-in-taliban-afghanistan-tracing-the-resurgence-of-islamic-state-khorasan/">traced</a> ISIS-K’s resurgence under its <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/who-new-leader-islamic-state-khorasan-province">new leader</a>, from its depletion following years of <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Broken-but-Not-Defeated.pdf">personnel and territorial losses</a> due to military operations, to the revived threat that the group poses today. The deadly consequences of that resurgence were seen on Aug. 26, 2021, in an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban-166873">attack that left at least 100 people dead</a>, including 13 U.S. troops.</p>
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<img alt="A Taliban fighter holding a gun stands in front of a fence. On the floor is bloodstained clothing and debris." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478929/original/file-20220812-22-katarp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A Taliban fighter stands guard at the site of a 2021 ISIS-K suicide bombing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/taliban-fighter-stands-guard-at-the-site-of-the-august-26-news-photo/1234889168?adppopup=true">Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>At present, ISIS-K is in the middle of two key campaigns. The first is aimed at building a wide militant base that draws on <a href="https://extremism.gwu.edu/ISK-poses-indigenous-threat-to-Afghan-Taliban">local populations</a> and <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/the-islamic-state-threat-in-taliban-afghanistan-tracing-the-resurgence-of-islamic-state-khorasan/">regional militant groups</a>. The second is a campaign to delegitimize the Taliban through attacks and <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2021/10/the-taliban-cant-take-on-the-islamic-state-alone/">propaganda designed to highlight</a> Taliban incompetence, and <a href="https://www.militantwire.com/p/iskp-criticizes-talibans-acceptance?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">frame the Taliban government</a> as illegitimate. </p>
<p>Over time – and with the backing of the core <a href="https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/isil.html">Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria</a> and other resistance groups draining the Taliban’s resources – we believe ISIS-K has the potential to chip away at the Taliban’s governance while expanding its own influence.</p>
<h2>A global threat?</h2>
<p>Emboldened militant groups in Afghanistan pose a threat not just to the country itself, but also to the region and potentially the global community.</p>
<p>The Taliban’s success in retaking Afghanistan encouraged an already-resurgent <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/05/evolution-and-potential-resurgence-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan">Pakistani Taliban</a> to pursue a campaign of violence and push for <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/06/five-things-watch-islamabad-pakistani-taliban-talks">political concessions</a> from the Pakistani government. </p>
<p>Similarly, al-Qaida’s global network of affiliates has drawn inspiration from the Taliban’s victory. And despite the symbolic blow of <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-was-ayman-al-zawahri-where-does-his-death-leave-al-qaida-and-what-does-it-say-about-us-counterterrorism-188056">al-Zawahri’s death</a>, many of those affiliates in the Middle East and Africa <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/how-strong-is-al-qaeda-a-debate/">remain operationally unaffected</a> by any fallout from the U.S. strike.</p>
<p>In spite of the success of that operation, <a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/over-the-horizon-counterterrorism-new-name-same-old-challenges/">debate continues</a> over the effectiveness of the United States’ <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/05/over-the-horizon-biden-afghanistan-counter-terrorism/">over-the-horizon counterterrorism strategy</a>, which involves the launching of surgical strikes and special operations raids from outside the country.</p>
<p>The al-Zawahri operation demonstrated that sound intelligence can result in effective targeting of high-profile terrorists. But <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/politics/us-counterrorism-afghanistan/index.html">counterterrorism experts</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-leader-killed-in-us-raid-where-does-this-leave-the-terrorist-group-176410">including ourselves</a> remain concerned over whether such strikes can be effective in targeting less prominent militants who nevertheless play a critical role in the day-to-day operations.</p>
<p>To bolster the strategy, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-al-qaeda-chief-ayman-al-zawahiri-is-dead-whats-next-for-us-counterterrorism/">the U.S.</a> could seek out more robust relationships with resistance groups hostile to the Taliban, as well as with neighboring <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/21/us-central-asia-counterterrorism/">Central Asian countries</a>, such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, in order to bolster the intelligence needed to conduct over-the-horizon strikes. But such partnerships would not come without their downsides, including further isolating the Taliban. </p>
<p>International diplomatic efforts and U.S. counterterrorism operations, along with internal pressure from resistance groups and jihadist rivalries, may encourage the Taliban to reform its ways.</p>
<p>But if the second year of Taliban rule fails to produce meaningful changes, the outlook for the country and its citizens will likely only turn for the worse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188132/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Taliban promised not to allow Afghanistan to be used by groups seeking to attack the US, yet terrorist groups have only become more emboldened under its rule.Andrew Mines, Research Fellow at the Program on Extremism, George Washington UniversityAmira Jadoon, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Clemson UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1642212021-07-22T12:07:18Z2021-07-22T12:07:18ZAfghanistan after the US withdrawal: The Taliban speak more moderately but their extremist rule hasn’t evolved in 20 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411284/original/file-20210714-13-1i7h63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C1911%2C1279&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In early 2021, some Taliban fighters surrendered their weapons to support peace talks with the Afghan government. Today the Islamic extremist group is battling government forces to control the country. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/taliban-fighters?agreements=pa%253A91269&family=editorial&page=2&phrase=Taliban%2520fighters&sort=newest">Xinhua/Emran Waak via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Taliban are rapidly gaining territory in Afghanistan as the United States withdraws its forces from the war-torn country. The militant group now <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/06/taliban-takes-control-of-30-districts-in-past-six-weeks.php">holds at least one-third of Afghanistan’s 364 districts</a>. </p>
<p>For two decades the Afghan government has relied heavily on American military power to defend against the bloody insurgency of the Taliban, a radical Islamic organization that seized control of the country in 1996. </p>
<p>During the Taliban’s five-year rule – which was almost universally shunned by other governments but supported <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm">militarily and politically by Pakistan</a> – women were prohibited from working, attending school or leaving home without a male relative. Men were forced to grow beards and wear a cap or turban. Music and other entertainment was banned. </p>
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<img alt="A street hairdresser in Kabul cuts a man's beard in November 2001." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411287/original/file-20210714-19-1hrkv77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Getting a trim in Kabul, November 2001.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/119720452">Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Anyone not abiding by this code risked being publicly lashed, beaten or humiliated. Women who disobeyed these rules were <a href="http://rawa.org/beating.htm">sometimes killed</a>.</p>
<p>Twenty years have passed since the 2001 United States invasion that quickly toppled the Taliban regime. Most Taliban fighters today are under 30. Some weren’t even born in 2001. </p>
<p>What does the group stand for today?</p>
<h2>The Taliban then and now</h2>
<p>The 2001 Taliban defeat was celebrated by Afghans inside and outside of Afghanistan. </p>
<p>Children started to fly kites and to play games – both previously banned. Couples played music at their weddings, and women left their homes for work without fear of being beaten by Taliban enforcers. Many men shaved their beards. Afghanistan opened to the world. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ac3UA_48Va0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Kite-flying resurged in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Neither the Taliban nor violence disappeared as the climate of fear dispersed, but Afghans resumed some semblance of normal life. </p>
<p>Today, younger members of the Taliban, a group once known for eschewing technology, have adopted social media, TV and radios to promote their extremist version of Islamic law. The rhetoric of their older leaders has changed since 2001, too – at least on the international stage. </p>
<p>During peace negotiations and on visits abroad, the Taliban’s leadership has expressed both a belief that women have <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taliban-say-islamic-system-only-way-to-afghan-peace-womens-rights/ar-AALet6z">rights under Islamic laws</a> and a desire to reduce violence in Afghanistan. The group has also pledged to protect <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/afghan-taliban-offers-protect-infrastructure-projects-142805475.html">such public infrastructure as government buildings, roads and schools</a>, which it has often attacked. </p>
<p>In very few areas of Afghanistan that the Taliban have controlled for many years, local members of the group have allowed girls to <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-the-taliban-agreed-to-let-more-girls-in-afghanistan-go-to-school/ar-BB1cwf4I">go to school after community leaders negotiated with local Taliban leaders</a>.</p>
<h2>A new emirate</h2>
<p>But in newly captured areas their policies are more hard line. </p>
<p>According to various reports by the Afghan stations Radio Liberty and Radio Salam Watandar, Taliban rulers in Afghanistan’s North and Northeast have asked families to <a href="https://swn.af/taliban-in-takhar-every-family-brings-a-girl-to-our-marriage/">marry off one girl per family to their fighters</a>; said women should not <a href="https://da.azadiradio.com/a/31350025.html">leave home without a male relative</a>; and ordered men to pray in mosques and grow beards. </p>
<p>The Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission, an Afghan government agency, says <a href="https://bakhtarnews.af/taliban-destroyed-public-infrastructures-in-116-districts-nadery/">public infrastructure has been destroyed</a> and social services halted in many Taliban-controlled areas, leaving 13 million people without public services. </p>
<p>All evidence suggests the <a href="https://ctc.usma.edu/have-the-taliban-changed/">Taliban still believe</a> in restoring their old system of emirate, in which an unelected religious leader, or emir, was the ultimate decision-maker. No one could challenge his verdicts because he was believed to have a divine authority from God.</p>
<p>“What has changed? Absolutely nothing,” Ahmad Rashid, a Pakistani journalist who <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ahmed-rashid-afghanistan-chaos-will-suck-in-neighboring-countries/a-58163020?maca=en-Twitter-sharing">has covered Afghanistan for 20 years</a>, told Germany’s Deutsche Welle newspaper in July 2021. “The Taliban don’t believe in democracy. They just want the collapse of the government so they can reconquer Afghanistan and reimpose their system.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bearded men in white robes and head coverings walk closely together in a hotel-like setting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411286/original/file-20210714-19-2ga69l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taliban co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar, center, after signing the Taliban’s accord with the U.S. in Qatar in February 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/1204139101">Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A dubious negotiating partner</h2>
<p>The U.S. troop withdrawal follows a controversial February 2020 U.S.-Taliban accord initiated by former President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>In the deal, the U.S. agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan – fulfilling a long-standing Taliban goal – if the Taliban ceased violence against American forces, severed ties with al-Qaida and other terror groups and entered <a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistan-peace-talks-begin-but-will-the-taliban-hold-up-their-end-of-the-deal-146081">peace talks with the Afghan government</a>. </p>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/07/08/1014178656/as-u-s-troops-leave-afghanistan-biden-is-set-to-explain-what-happens-now">defended his decision to leave Afghanistan</a>, but there is good reason to doubt the Taliban’s commitment to peace. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://unama.unmissions.org/surge-civilian-casualties-following-afghanistan-peace-negotiations-start-un-report">recent United Nations report</a>, 5,459 Afghans have been killed since the 2020 U.S.-Taliban deal was signed, and the Taliban were responsible for 62% of those deaths. </p>
<p>In my decades of first working for the Afghan government and then <a href="https://www.unomaha.edu/international-studies-and-programs/about-us/directory/sherjan-ahmadzai.php">studying Afghanistan as an academic</a>, I have found no reliable historical evidence of the group’s abiding by any domestic agreement it signed with any party in Afghanistan. </p>
<p>It has <a href="http://www.hazara.net/mazari/mazari.html">killed opponents</a> at meetings allegedly called to discuss a truce and denied schooling to girls after committing to educate them. </p>
<p>The Taliban have so far kept their promise to the U.S. not to attack withdrawing American forces. But ongoing talks with the Afghan government have not resulted in a cease-fire or power-sharing agreement for Afghanistan.</p>
<p>“Why were the Taliban going to compromise once the [U.S. troop] exit date was given?” asked Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan at a July 2021 conference on <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1635387">security in Central and South Asia</a> I attended. </p>
<p>“Why would they listen to us when they are sensing victory?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dozen or more men with large weapons stand in front of a home with arched windows" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411289/original/file-20210714-21-f829i8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Armed men gather in Herat to support Afghanistan security forces fighting the Taliban on July 9, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/afghan-militia-gather-with-their-weapons-to-support-afghanistan-picture-id1233885751">Hoshang Hashimi / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Terror connections</h2>
<p>Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan hosted many terrorists who perpetrated attacks on American interests worldwide. </p>
<p>The terrorists included al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, who planned <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/afghan-taliban#text_block_16833">the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania</a> and the Sept. 11, 2001, World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks. Bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces in his home <a href="https://www.npr.org/series/135908383/osama-bin-laden-dead">in Pakistan in 2011</a>, but al-Qaida cells <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-al-qaida-is-still-strong-17-years-after-9-11-102966">continue to operate in Southwest Asia and beyond</a>. </p>
<p>And the Taliban <a href="https://theprint.in/defence/why-us-pullout-from-afghanistan-has-indian-security-forces-worried-about-kashmir/696519/">still associate with the group</a> – a violation of their 2020 accord with the U.S. According to a May 2021 U.S. government report, the Taliban <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2021/May/18/2002654296/-1/-1/1/LEAD%20INSPECTOR%20GENERAL%20FOR%20OPERATION%20FREEDOM'S%20SENTINEL.PDF">“maintain close ties” with al-Qaida</a>. </p>
<p>Recent reports from <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/paks-terror-groups-join-taliban-war-india-wary-101625942135382.html">Indian security agencies</a> say Pakistan-based terrorist groups are partnering with the Taliban to fight Afghan forces inside Afghanistan, too.</p>
<p>Journalist Ahmad Rashid says with the U.S. gone, the Taliban won’t likely strike a deal as long as the Pakistani military continues to give <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ahmed-rashid-afghanistan-chaos-will-suck-in-neighboring-countries/a-58163020?maca=en-Twitter-sharing">their leaders and their families refuge in Pakistan</a>. The Taliban top brass is safe, while young Taliban fighters wage their insurgency in Afghanistan.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sher Jan Ahmadzai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two decades have passed since the US invasion of Afghanistan toppled the Taliban’s Islamic extremist regime. Despite efforts to update its image, the group still holds hard-line views.Sher Jan Ahmadzai, Director, Center for Afghanistan Studies, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323032020-02-21T20:57:55Z2020-02-21T20:57:55ZAfter US and Taliban sign accord, Afghanistan must prepare for peace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317883/original/file-20200229-24664-9177yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C14%2C4842%2C2844&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar sign an agreement ending the US's 18-year war in Afghanistan, Doha, Feb. 29, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-representative-for-afghanistan-reconciliation-news-photo/1204133093?adppopup=true">GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States has <a href="https://apnews.com/491544713df4879f399d0ff5523d369e?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow">signed a peace deal</a> with the <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/afghan-taliban">Taliban</a>, an armed insurgency promoting an ultra-conservative form of Sunni Islam of Afghanistan. </p>
<p>The Taliban has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-taliban-talks-resume-raising-prospect-end-war-afghanistan-n1097981">battled the Afghan government</a> for power for three decades. Since the U.S. invasion of 2001 following the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks, it has also fought the United States – an 18-year war that killed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/">2,300 American soldiers and more than 43,000 Afghan citizens</a>. </p>
<p>The accord, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/taliban-set-sign-deal-war-afghanistan-200228055452287.html">signed on Feb. 29</a> in Doha, Qatar, follows a week-long truce and 18 months of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49729612">stop-and-go</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/resurrected-taliban-peace-talks-open-qatar-191207105319486.html">negotiations</a>. It sets the terms for the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/world/asia/us-withdrawal-afghanistan-taliban.html?module=inline">withdrawal</a> of the remaining roughly 13,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan over 14 months. In exchange, the Taliban must enter talks with Afghan government officials and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-taliban-talks-resume-raising-prospect-end-war-afghanistan-n1097981">cut ties</a> with terrorist groups like al-Qaida. </p>
<p>But peace in Afghanistan will take more than an accord. History shows that <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/crisis%20prevention/undp-cpr-post-conflict-economic-recovery-enable-local-ingenuity-report-2008.pdf">economic growth</a> and better job opportunities are necessary to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=GXIGCAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=peacebuilding+in+post-conflict+countries+jobs+economic+growth&ots=wUBmA_dxxg&sig=0Td9VUiuEADEdC4iJuBrNghWkLA#v=onepage&q=peacebuilding%20in%20post-conflict%20countries%20jobs%20economic%20growth&f=false">rebuild stability after war</a>. My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Elizabeth_Hessami">work</a> on armed conflict, the environment and peacebuilding indicates that careful and sustainable use of Afghanistan’s <a href="https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Afghanistan_NRM_guidance_chart.pdf">abundant natural resources</a> could be one path toward recovery.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C4000%2C2664&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C4000%2C2664&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A market in the Old City of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sept. 8, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-Daily-Life/a9c73acd22884f5d83b007a534f699b4/9/0">AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Building a lasting peace</h2>
<p>Insurgent groups recruit people who desperately need an income. As <a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/07/taliban-pays-its-troops-better-than-karzai-pays-his/">Wired magazine reported back in 2007</a>, the Taliban paid its soldiers far better than the Afghan government. Today, salaries for members of ISIS-KP, the Islamic State’s local branch, are reportedly even higher. </p>
<p>Creating well-paid alternatives to extremist groups, then, is a critical piece in solving Afghanistan’s national security puzzle.</p>
<p>And since many fighters for insurgent groups in Afghanistan come from a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/turning-former-afghanistan-warlord-fighters-farmers">farming background</a> – and agriculture accounts for <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/publication/unlocking-potential-of-agriculture-for-afghanistan-growth">40% of total jobs</a> in Afghanistan – rural development will be particularly important for peacebuilding. </p>
<p>“Strengthening natural resource-related livelihoods can [provide] a future for youth who might otherwise join rebel forces,” says Carl Bruch, president of the <a href="https://environmentalpeacebuilding.org/">Environmental Peacebuilding Association</a>, a nonprofit organization that studies the relationship between armed conflict and natural resources. </p>
<p>The United States Agency for International Development, which also funds <a href="https://www.chemonics.com/projects/building-economy-promoting-peace-colombia/">efforts to build the economy of post-conflict countries like Colombia</a> and <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/democratic-republic-congo/fact-sheets/peace-and-security">Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>, sees sustainable economic growth as <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan/economic-growth">crucial for a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3696%2C2248&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3696%2C2248&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316671/original/file-20200221-92502-1j826ve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taliban fighters surrender their weapons in Jalalabad, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, Feb. 8, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/feb-9-2020-taliban-fighters-attend-a-surrender-ceremony-in-news-photo/1199763068?adppopup=true">Saifurahman Safi/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Figs, saffron and pine nuts</h2>
<p>The export market for coveted Afghan agricultural products like cashmere, pine nuts, figs and saffron is one potentially lucrative sector of the rural economy.</p>
<p>In November 2019, several Chinese importers finalized a deal with Afghan <a href="https://www.avapress.com/en/news/196297/afghanistan-to-export-62-000-tonnes-of-pine-nuts-china-over-next-five-years">companies</a> to buy US$2.2 billion in Afghan pine nuts over the next five years. </p>
<p>Other agricultural exports from Afghanistan are finding their place in the world market, too. <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/afg/">Grape sales</a> brought Afghanistan $143 million in 2017. Tropical fruits earned $101 million. Afghanistan’s economy <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/01/22/afghanistan-improves-its-growth-despite-uncertainty">grew 2.9% in 2019</a>, largely driven by agriculture.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Afghan women work in a saffron field in Herat, Afghanistan, Nov. 27, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-US-Spending/8e4d2f9194de4c85809339acf7c6665a/3/0">AP Photo/Hoshang Hashimi, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Afghan government recognizes its potential as a global source of fine foods. </p>
<p>Eight months after Afghan president Ashraf Ghani created several <a href="https://tolonews.com/business/afghan-exports-through-air-corridors-total-100m">new air corridors in 2018</a> – safe and direct flight paths created for trade and other purposes – <a href="https://www.themigrantproject.org/afghanistan-opens-air-cargo-corridors/">exports from Afghanistan increased 32%</a>. These air routes connect Afghanistan to India, Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan – commercial hubs that give Afghan products access to other trade destinations. </p>
<p>Recently, browsing in a local health food store in Los Angeles, I was surprised to come upon a bright red bag of Kandahar figs. </p>
<p>The distributor, Ziba Foods, told me that 80% of their workforce – both management and staff positions – is female, and that the company provides English lessons and other professional development to staff. </p>
<p>“We are committed to providing our Afghan staff with year-round employment despite the cyclical nature of the agricultural sector,” Ziba partner Raffi Vartanian said. </p>
<h2>Emerald mining</h2>
<p>Emeralds are another Afghan product with the potential to drive economic growth. High up in the Hindu Kush mountains of Panjshir Province are buried vivid green emeralds of <a href="https://www.gia.edu/doc/SP91A2.pdf">noted color and purity</a>. </p>
<p>The inhabitants of Panjshir once sold these famous emeralds <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/09/09/140333732/in-afghanistan-assessing-a-rebel-leaders-legacy">to finance</a> their <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/09/09/140333732/in-afghanistan-assessing-a-rebel-leaders-legacy">resistance to Soviet occupation</a>. In a more stable future, these precious stones could provide substantial incomes for people in an area that’s too mountainous for farming or herding.</p>
<p>Afghanistan exported an estimated $100 million in emeralds in 2018, according to <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/publications/incolor">InColor Magazine</a>, a publication of the International Colored Gemstone Association. In 2015, <a href="http://www.lj24magazine.com/article/article_000516/1.aspx">Christie’s</a> auction house sold an Afghan emerald for <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/incolor/40/85/">$2,276,408</a>, a <a href="https://magazine.stregis.com/the-emerald/">record price for Christie’s</a>. </p>
<p>Despite some <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/01/02/access-to-all-weather-road-allows-afghan-valley-inhabitants-to-flourish">recent road repairs</a>, the mountainous and remote Panjshir region remains <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-xpm-2013-dec-22-la-fg-afghanistan-panjshir-20131222-story.html">extremely difficult to get in and out of</a>. With better access, improved technology and <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/08/29/smallbusiness/afghanistan-emeralds-panjshir-aria/">more training for miners</a>, analysts estimate Panjshir could produce <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/incolor/40/86/">$300 to $400 million</a> worth of emeralds each year. </p>
<h2>Good timing</h2>
<p>Afghanistan’s peace deal comes just over 40 years after the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7883532.stm">1979 Soviet Invasion</a> that triggered a cycle of armed conflict that has destabilized this Central Asian nation since. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Afghan rebels on top of knocked out Russian armored vehicle in Afghanistan in February 1980.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-I-AFG-APHS302628-Soviet-Invasion-and-/9b7e7023102b4486998be9caab7ca1df/155/0">AP Photo</a></span>
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<p>An estimated <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-dec-26-op-soviet26-story.html">2.5 million Afghans</a> were killed or wounded during the decade-long Soviet occupation. The <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/afghanistan-russia-programs/2019-02-27/soviet-withdrawal-afghanistan-1989">withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989</a> left the country in chaos, vulnerable to the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/12/07/131884473/Afghanistan-After-The-Soviet-Withdrawal">eventual rise</a> of militant groups like the Taliban, al-Qaida and, eventually, IS-KP.</p>
<p>Though the 27.5 million Afghans <a href="https://afghanistan.unfpa.org/en/news/young-people-make-their-voices-heard-through-afghan-youth-parliament">under the age of 25</a> have only known war, the population is eager for peace. A late 2019 survey by the Asia Foundation of <a href="http://heartofasia.af/peace-talks-instilled-hopes-in-afghans/">18,000 Afghans</a> found that <a href="http://heartofasia.af/peace-talks-instilled-hopes-in-afghans/">90% of those</a> surveyed strongly supported negotiations with the Taliban.</p>
<p>Older Afghans remember happier times. My husband, who left Afghanistan as a young man after the Soviet invasion, has photo albums showing his family grilling kebabs and lounging in the rose-filled Paghman Gardens, just outside the city. Back then, beautiful Kabul was known as “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/weekinreview/18bumiller.html">the Paris of Central Asia</a>.” </p>
<p>Many of <a href="http://www.bakhtarnews.com.af/eng/culture/item/38569-president-ghani-inspects-restoration-process-of-paghman-historic-palaces.html">Paghman’s lawns and palaces</a> are now in the process of careful restoration – a hopeful sign after decades of destruction. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C2995%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C2995%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Visitors in 2009 at at a lake in Band-e-Amir, Afghanistan’s first national park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-Bring-On-The-Tourists/ecfab6a615744d3ab911d7a39ac284b2/16/0">AP Photo/Rahmat Gul</a></span>
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<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, Afghanistan’s spectacular natural landscapes attracted thousands of tourists each year, <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.af/about-afghanistan/tourism.html">according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan</a>. Young travelers who took the famous “Hippie Trail” – a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/europe/the-lonely-planet-journey-the-hippie-trail-6257275.html">4,660-mile</a> journey from London to Goa, India – would pass through Afghanistan. </p>
<p>Ecotourism is another industry that could develop in Afghanistan if armed conflict there ends. </p>
<p>A Taliban accord ends America’s Afghanistan war. But only in creating meaningful jobs and sustainable economic development will a <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan/economic-growth">durable peace</a> take root. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/taliban-negotiations-resume-feeding-hope-of-a-peaceful-more-prosperous-afghanistan-127772">article</a> originally published Dec. 10, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132303/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth B. Hessami is a Visiting Attorney for the Environmental Law Institute and a founding member of the Environmental Peacebuilding Association.</span></em></p>A peace deal with the Taliban has been signed. But rebuilding Afghanistan after three decades of conflict will take much more than an accord, says a scholar of peacebuilding.Elizabeth B. Hessami, Faculty Lecturer, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1277722019-12-10T13:56:52Z2019-12-10T13:56:52ZUS-Taliban truce begins, feeding hope of a peaceful, more prosperous Afghanistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305944/original/file-20191209-90609-1cb5fgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C4000%2C2664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A market in the Old City of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sept. 8, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-Daily-Life/a9c73acd22884f5d83b007a534f699b4/9/0">AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If a <a href="https://apnews.com/62c7a74076796c180677d0826a5da506">seven-day truce</a> between the United States and the Taliban holds until Feb. 28, 2020, Afghanistan’s decade-long conflict may finally end. A peace deal could be signed as soon as Feb. 29, according to the State Department. </p>
<p>The draft accord follows months of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49729612">stop-and-go</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/resurrected-taliban-peace-talks-open-qatar-191207105319486.html">negotiations</a> between the United States and the <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/afghan-taliban">Taliban</a>, an armed insurgency promoting an ultra-conservative form of Sunni Islam. </p>
<p>The Taliban has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-taliban-talks-resume-raising-prospect-end-war-afghanistan-n1097981">battled the Afghan government</a> for power for three decades. Since the U.S. invasion of 2001 following the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks, it has also fought the United States – an 18-year war that killed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/">2,300 American soldiers and more than 43,000 Afghan citizens</a>. </p>
<p>A peace deal with the Taliban would set the terms for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/world/asia/us-withdrawal-afghanistan-taliban.html?module=inline">staged withdrawal</a> of the remaining 14,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan. In exchange, the Taliban must agree to enter talks with Afghan government officials and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-taliban-talks-resume-raising-prospect-end-war-afghanistan-n1097981">cut ties</a> with terrorist groups like al-Qaida. </p>
<p>But peace in Afghanistan will take more than an accord. History shows that <a href="https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/crisis%20prevention/undp-cpr-post-conflict-economic-recovery-enable-local-ingenuity-report-2008.pdf">economic growth</a> and better job opportunities are necessary to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=GXIGCAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=peacebuilding+in+post-conflict+countries+jobs+economic+growth&ots=wUBmA_dxxg&sig=0Td9VUiuEADEdC4iJuBrNghWkLA#v=onepage&q=peacebuilding%20in%20post-conflict%20countries%20jobs%20economic%20growth&f=false">rebuild stability after war</a>. My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Elizabeth_Hessami">work</a> on armed conflict, the environment and peacebuilding indicates that careful and sustainable use of Afghanistan’s <a href="https://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Afghanistan_NRM_guidance_chart.pdf">abundant natural resources</a> could be one path towards recovery.</p>
<h2>Building a lasting peace</h2>
<p>Insurgent groups recruit people who desperately need an income. As <a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/07/taliban-pays-its-troops-better-than-karzai-pays-his/">Wired magazine reported back in 2007</a>, the Taliban paid its soldiers far better than the Afghan government. Today, salaries for members of ISIS-KP, the Islamic State’s local branch, are reportedly even higher. </p>
<p>Creating well-paid alternatives to extremist groups, then, is a critical piece in solving Afghanistan’s national security puzzle.</p>
<p>And since many fighters for insurgent groups in Afghanistan come from a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/turning-former-afghanistan-warlord-fighters-farmers">farming background</a> – and agriculture accounts for <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/publication/unlocking-potential-of-agriculture-for-afghanistan-growth">40% of total jobs</a> in Afghanistan – rural development will be particularly important for peacebuilding. </p>
<p>“Strengthening natural resource-related livelihoods can [provide] a future for youth who might otherwise join rebel forces,” says Carl Bruch, president of the <a href="https://environmentalpeacebuilding.org/">Environmental Peacebuilding Association</a>, a nonprofit organization that studies the relationship between armed conflict and natural resources. </p>
<p>The United States Agency for International Development, which also funds <a href="https://www.chemonics.com/projects/building-economy-promoting-peace-colombia/">efforts to build the economy of post-conflict countries like Colombia</a> and <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/democratic-republic-congo/fact-sheets/peace-and-security">Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>, sees sustainable economic growth as <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan/economic-growth">crucial for a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<h2>Figs, saffron and pine nuts</h2>
<p>The export market for coveted Afghan agricultural products like cashmere, pine nuts, figs, and saffron is one potentially lucrative sector of the rural economy.</p>
<p>In November 2019, several Chinese importers finalized a deal with Afghan <a href="https://www.avapress.com/en/news/196297/afghanistan-to-export-62-000-tonnes-of-pine-nuts-china-over-next-five-years">companies</a> to buy US$2.2 billion in Afghan pine nuts over the next five years. </p>
<p>Other agricultural exports from Afghanistan are finding their place in the world market, too. <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/afg/">Grape sales</a> brought Afghanistan $143 million in 2017. Tropical fruits earned $101 million. Afghanistan’s economy <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/01/22/afghanistan-improves-its-growth-despite-uncertainty">grew 2.9% in 2019</a>, largely driven by agriculture.</p>
<p>The Afghan government recognizes its potential as a global source of fine foods. </p>
<p>Eight months after Afghan president Ashraf Ghani created several <a href="https://tolonews.com/business/afghan-exports-through-air-corridors-total-100m">new air corridors in 2018</a> – safe and direct flight paths created for trade and other purposes – <a href="https://www.themigrantproject.org/afghanistan-opens-air-cargo-corridors/">exports from Afghanistan increased 32%</a>. These air routes connect Afghanistan to India, Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan – commercial hubs that give Afghan products access to other trade destinations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305946/original/file-20191209-90552-pqvmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Afghan women work in a saffron field in Herat, Afghanistan, Nov. 27, 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-US-Spending/8e4d2f9194de4c85809339acf7c6665a/3/0">AP Photo/Hoshang Hashimi, File</a></span>
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<p>Recently, browsing in a local health food store in Los Angeles, I was surprised to come upon a bright red bag of Kandahar figs. </p>
<p>The distributor, Ziba Foods, told me that 80% of their workforce – both management and staff positions – is female, and that the company provides English lessons and other professional development to staff. </p>
<p>“We are committed to providing our Afghan staff with year-round employment despite the cyclical nature of the agricultural sector,” Ziba partner Raffi Vartanian said. </p>
<h2>Emerald mining</h2>
<p>Emeralds are another Afghan product with the potential to drive economic growth. High up in the Hindu Kush mountains of Panjshir Province are buried vivid green emeralds of <a href="https://www.gia.edu/doc/SP91A2.pdf">noted color and purity</a>. </p>
<p>The inhabitants of Panjshir once sold these famous emeralds <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/09/09/140333732/in-afghanistan-assessing-a-rebel-leaders-legacy">to finance</a> their <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/09/09/140333732/in-afghanistan-assessing-a-rebel-leaders-legacy">resistance to Soviet occupation</a>. In a more stable future, these precious stones could provide substantial incomes for people in an area that’s too mountainous for farming or herding.</p>
<p>Afghanistan exported an estimated $100 million in emeralds in 2018, according to <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/publications/incolor">InColor Magazine</a>, a publication of the International Colored Gemstone Association. In 2015, <a href="http://www.lj24magazine.com/article/article_000516/1.aspx">Christie’s</a> auction house sold an Afghan emerald for <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/incolor/40/85/">$2,276,408</a>, a <a href="https://magazine.stregis.com/the-emerald/">record price for Christie’s</a>. </p>
<p>Despite some <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/01/02/access-to-all-weather-road-allows-afghan-valley-inhabitants-to-flourish">recent road repairs</a>, the mountainous and remote Panjshir region remains <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-xpm-2013-dec-22-la-fg-afghanistan-panjshir-20131222-story.html">extremely difficult to get in and out of</a>. With better access, improved technology and <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/08/29/smallbusiness/afghanistan-emeralds-panjshir-aria/">more training for miners</a>, analysts estimate Panjshir could produce <a href="https://www.gemstone.org/incolor/40/86/">$300 to $400 million</a> worth of emeralds each year. </p>
<h2>Good timing</h2>
<p>If signed, the Afghanistan peace deal would come just over 40 years after the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7883532.stm">1979 Soviet Invasion</a> that triggered a cycle of armed conflict that has destabilized this Central Asian nation since. </p>
<p>An estimated <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-dec-26-op-soviet26-story.html">2.5 million Afghans</a> were killed or wounded during the decade-long Soviet occupation. The <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/afghanistan-russia-programs/2019-02-27/soviet-withdrawal-afghanistan-1989">withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989</a> left the country in chaos, vulnerable to the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/12/07/131884473/Afghanistan-After-The-Soviet-Withdrawal">eventual rise</a> of militant groups like the Taliban, al-Qaida and, eventually, IS-KP.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305945/original/file-20191209-90603-gyukz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Afghan rebels on top of knocked out Russian armored vehicle in Afghanistan in February 1980.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-I-AFG-APHS302628-Soviet-Invasion-and-/9b7e7023102b4486998be9caab7ca1df/155/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though the 27.5 million Afghans <a href="https://afghanistan.unfpa.org/en/news/young-people-make-their-voices-heard-through-afghan-youth-parliament">under the age of 25</a> have only known war, the population is hopeful about their country’s prospects for peace. A recent survey by the Asia Foundation of <a href="http://heartofasia.af/peace-talks-instilled-hopes-in-afghans/">18,000 Afghans</a> found that <a href="http://heartofasia.af/peace-talks-instilled-hopes-in-afghans/">90% of those</a> surveyed strongly support efforts towards a deal with the Taliban.</p>
<p>Older Afghans remember happier times. My husband, who left Afghanistan as a young man after the Soviet invasion, has photo albums showing his family grilling kebabs and lounging in the rose-filled Paghman Gardens, just outside the city. Back then, beautiful Kabul was known as “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/weekinreview/18bumiller.html">the Paris of Central Asia</a>.” </p>
<p>Many of <a href="http://www.bakhtarnews.com.af/eng/culture/item/38569-president-ghani-inspects-restoration-process-of-paghman-historic-palaces.html">Paghman’s lawns and palaces</a> are now in the process of careful restoration – a hopeful sign after decades of destruction. </p>
<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, Afghanistan’s spectacular natural landscapes attracted thousands of tourists each year, <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.af/about-afghanistan/tourism.html">according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan</a>. Young travelers who took the famous “Hippie Trail” – a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/europe/the-lonely-planet-journey-the-hippie-trail-6257275.html">4,660-mile</a> journey from London to Goa, India – would pass through Afghanistan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C2995%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C2995%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305943/original/file-20191209-90603-1wtozv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Visitors in 2009 at at a lake in Band-e-Amir, Afghanistan’s first national park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Afghanistan-Bring-On-The-Tourists/ecfab6a615744d3ab911d7a39ac284b2/16/0">AP Photo/Rahmat Gul</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ecotourism is another industry that could develop in Afghanistan if <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan">armed conflict ceases</a>. </p>
<p>A Taliban accord is necessary to end the Afghanistan war. But creating meaningful jobs and sustainable economic growth will <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/afghanistan/economic-growth">help create a durable peace</a>. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/taliban-negotiations-resume-feeding-hope-of-a-peaceful-more-prosperous-afghanistan-127772">article</a> originally published Dec. 10, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth B. Hessami is affiliated with the Environmental Law Institute as a visiting attorney and for the Environmental Peacebuilding Association as a volunteer.</span></em></p>Building a lasting peace in Afghanistan will take much more than an accord with the Taliban. In post-conflict nations, economic development and job creation are critical to national security.Elizabeth B. Hessami, Faculty Lecturer, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.