tag:theconversation.com,2011:/africa/topics/tony-abbott-244/articlesTony Abbott – The Conversation2024-02-25T19:16:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230032024-02-25T19:16:56Z2024-02-25T19:16:56ZAs Scott Morrison leaves parliament, where does he rank among Australian prime ministers?<p>This week Scott Morrison, Australia’s 30th prime minister, will deliver his valedictory speech to the House of Representatives. As Morrison leaves parliament, it’s timely to ask where he is placed in the pantheon of Australia’s national leaders.</p>
<p>Already there have been unflattering verdicts on Morrison’s prime-ministerial standing. For example, in her withering account of his leadership, veteran columnist and author <a href="https://scribepublications.com.au/books-authors/books/bulldozed-9781922585981">Niki Savva writes</a> that among detractors, “Morrison was regarded as the worst prime minister since Billy McMahon”. Moreover, according to Savva, following the August 2022 revelation of his commandeering of five ministries during the COVID pandemic, his reputation sunk still lower: “he was worse than McMahon. Worse even than Tony Abbott, who lasted a scant two years in the job”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-blood-sport-feigning-as-government-what-the-abcs-nemesis-taught-us-about-a-decade-of-coalition-rule-223002">'A blood sport feigning as government': what the ABC's Nemesis taught us about a decade of Coalition rule</a>
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<h2>How can we rank prime ministerial performance?</h2>
<p>How might we know how Morrison’s record stacks up against his prime-ministerial peers? One device for evaluating comparative leadership performance is expert rankings. Australia has had a slow take-up in this field, unlike the United States, where presidential rankings have a lineage stretching back three-quarters of a century and are a veritable scholarly cottage industry. </p>
<p>In recent years, there have been forays into this territory in Australia, with three prime-ministerial rankings conducted by newspapers and two initiated by Monash University in 2010 and 2020. (I was the organiser of both of these Monash rankings.)</p>
<p>These rankings have been largely consistent in their results. The experts, mostly political historians and political scientists, have judged the nation’s greatest prime minister to be its second world war leader, John Curtin. The other leaders in the top echelon are, in rough order, Bob Hawke, Ben Chifley, Alfred Deakin, Robert Menzies, Andrew Fisher, John Howard, Paul Keating and Gough Whitlam.</p>
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<span class="caption">Billy McMahon is often considered to be Australia’s worst prime minister.</span>
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<p>At the other end of the scale, Billy McMahon, who is chiefly remembered for being defeated by Labor’s Whitlam at the December 1972 election, thereby bringing to a close the Liberal Party’s postwar ascendancy, has been consistently rated Australia’s prime-ministerial dunce. Even his biographer, Patrick Mullins, acknowledges that McMahon has become “a by-word for failure, silliness, ridicule”.</p>
<p>However, in the most recent of the rankings, the Monash 2020 survey, McMahon had a close competitor for bottom place: Tony Abbott. Forty-four out of 66 respondents to that survey assessed Abbott’s prime ministership a failure. Other prime ministers to the rear of the field included Abbott’s contemporaries, Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>Morrison was not included in the 2020 rankings because as the incumbent his prime ministership was incomplete, and so it was premature to evaluate his performance. Let us now, though, measure his record against the nine benchmarks that the experts were asked to consider in rating the nation’s leaders.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-were-australias-best-prime-ministers-we-asked-the-experts-165302">Who were Australia's best prime ministers? We asked the experts</a>
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<h2>So how does Morrison shape up?</h2>
<p>The first is “effectively managing cabinet”. To date, little has been disclosed about the integrity of cabinet processes under Morrison’s stewardship. Yet, whatever the merits of that management, his scandalous breach of the norms of cabinet government by <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-bell-report-on-morrisons-multi-ministries-provides-a-bad-character-reference-195368">secretly assuming several ministries</a> will irretrievably stain his reputation in this regard.</p>
<p>Next is “maintaining support of Coalition/party”. That Morrison avoided being deposed by his party, which was the fate of his immediate predecessors (Rudd, Julia Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull), counts in his favour. As the ABC docuseries Nemesis shows, however, his prime ministership was marked by serious frictions both within the Liberal Party and between the Liberal and National coalition partners.</p>
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<p>“Demonstrating personal integrity”. This was not one of Morrison’s strong suits. As Savva makes searingly evident, and Nemesis also highlights, Morrison earned a reputation for being economical with the truth (including hiding his acquisition of colleagues’ ministries), for evading accountability and shifting blame (“I don’t hold a hose, mate”), and for corrupted processes under his watch (an example being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-sports-rort-questions-for-morrison-after-bridget-mckenzie-speaks-out-133160">shameless pork-barrelling</a> of the community sport infrastructure program in the lead-up to the 2019 election).</p>
<p>“Leaving a significant policy legacy”. Here Morrison is partly damned by his own words. In office, he insisted he was not concerned about his legacy, equating the idea with a vanity project. Indeed, an obsession with the theatre of politics and a corresponding lack of substance caused his prime ministership to come to be seen as bereft of purpose. </p>
<p>On the other hand, management of the COVID pandemic, however mixed, accords a significance to his time in office. AUKUS stands as the other major legacy of Morrison’s prime ministership, entrenched as it has been by his successor, Anthony Albanese. The agreement promises to influence Australia’s defence capability until the middle of this century and beyond, although only time will tell whether it enhances the nation’s security or is a dangerous white elephant.</p>
<p>“Relationship with the electorate”. Morrison’s record here is mixed. In his favour, he won an election (something McMahon couldn’t claim). Yet, by the time of the 2022 election, according to the Australian Election Study, he was the least popular major party leader in the history of that survey, which dates back to the 1980s. </p>
<p>His public toxicity was a primary factor in the Coalition’s defeat, one of his Liberal colleagues comparing the depth of public sentiment against the prime minister in 2022 to “having a 10,000-tonne boulder attached to your leg”.</p>
<p>“Communication effectiveness”. Styling himself as a Cronulla Sharks-supporting “daggy dad” from the suburbs, at least initially Morrison’s communication mode seemed to be well received in the community. He was relentlessly on message during the 2019 election campaign. </p>
<p>But the shine rapidly wore off his persona following that victory, with growing doubts about his authenticity. Rather than persuade, his habit was to hector, and rather than empathise, he exuded smugness. A series of notorious tin-eared statements, which especially alienated women voters, came to define his image. By the end he was known as the “bulldozer-in-chief”.</p>
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<p>“Nurturing national unity”. An innovation of Morrison’s at the beginning of the pandemic was the national cabinet. Bringing together the prime minister and premiers, it worked effectively for a time, only for partisan interests over lockdowns to strain relations between Canberra and the states. </p>
<p>Under pressure, Morrison also flirted with divisive culture-war politics, instances being his divisive Religious Discrimination Bill and his egregious handpicking of the anti-transgender Liberal candidate Katherine Deves to contest the 2022 election.</p>
<p>“Defending and promoting Australia’s interests abroad”. The AUKUS pact has vehement critics, led by Morrison’s prime-ministerial peers Keating and Turnbull, who argue it jeopardises national sovereignty. </p>
<p>There is no denying, however, that AUKUS was Morrison’s signature foreign policy enterprise. On the other hand, Australia’s reputation as a laggard on climate change under the Coalition hurt our international standing, not least among Pacific neighbours. The Morrison government’s belated commitment to a net zero carbon emissions by 2050 target was too little, too late. Bellicose rhetoric towards Beijing also led to a deterioration in relations with the nation’s major trading partner (as well as estranging Chinese-Australian voters).</p>
<p>“Being able to manage turbulent times”. Here, again, Morrison’s record is at best mixed. In his favour is decisive early actions to ameliorate the COVID pandemic, headed by the JobKeeper program. As the pandemic progressed, however, his government was too often flat-footed, demonstrated by its dilatory approach to procuring vaccines. His response to natural disasters, most notably the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires, was another shortcoming, exemplified by his secret holiday to Hawaii in the midst of the crisis. Arguably, his prime ministership was doomed from that moment.</p>
<h2>And the verdict?</h2>
<p>Prime-ministerial reputations can take time to settle. The passing of years fleshes out historical knowledge as well as providing greater perspective on performance in office. For example, the fate of AUKUS will quite possibly affect Morrison’s standing well into the future.</p>
<p>Even allowing for this, it seems safe to forecast that Morrison will be rated among the least distinguished of Australian prime ministers. His government’s relatively successful early management of the COVID pandemic and the legacy of AUKUS might spare him from falling below McMahon and Abbott at the bottom of the prime-ministerial heap. But avoiding that ignominy will probably be a close-run thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In the past Paul Strangio received funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>In assessing Morrison’s prime ministership, several factors need to be taken into account. On many of them, his record is poor.Paul Strangio, Emeritus professor of politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230022024-02-14T02:07:03Z2024-02-14T02:07:03Z‘A blood sport feigning as government’: what the ABC’s Nemesis taught us about a decade of Coalition rule<blockquote>
<p>For God’s sake let us sit upon the ground</p>
<p>And tell sad stories of the death of kings.</p>
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<p>Shakespeare, Richard II</p>
<p>ABC-produced post-mortem documentaries on national governments have a distinguished pedigree. The latest instalment, Nemesis, dealing with the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years, is the fourth of these series since the pioneering Labor in Power screened in 1993 chronicling the Hawke-Keating era. The Howard Years (2008) and The Killing Season (2015) followed examining respectively the Howard and Rudd-Gillard governments. </p>
<p>The changing tone of the titles of these series is telling. Though Labor in Power and The Howard Years had their fair share of preoccupation with leadership rivalries, they were also concerned with the substance of the governments. By contrast, The Killing Season and Nemesis focus predominantly on the leadership wars that blighted Australian politics between 2007 and 2022.</p>
<p>The most striking takeaway from Nemesis is that the Coalition’s decade in office from 2013 to 2022 was a time of abject irresponsibility. Rather than dedicated to delivering effective public policy, the Coalition spent a large part of that time consumed by infighting and ravaged by a cycle of treachery and retribution. It was blood sport feigning as government. And even when the leadership stabilised under Scott Morrison from August 2018, there was little guiding purpose.</p>
<p>There is no questioning that Nemesis is a significant piece of television documentary making. Eighteen months in creation, it is based on interviews with 60 participants. Mark Willacy, the reporter and interviewer of the programs, was surprised how easy it was to recruit the interviewees. Their motivations for participating were a mixture of a debt to posterity, vindicating actions and score settling.</p>
<p>But there are also some notable non-participants, most conspicuously Tony Abbott, who became the first former prime minister to decline to be interviewed in the three-decade history of these programs. We can only speculate why Abbott, who is also unusual among former prime ministers in not having written an account of his term of office, refused to participate. Perhaps his “action man” persona disinclines him to reflection, perhaps the memories of his unfulfilling two years in office are too painful to revisit, or perhaps he recognised that participating would only mean further debasement. Other high profile non-participants include Julie Bishop, the senior woman and deputy leader of the Liberal Party for the majority of the Coalition’s term in office, and Peter Dutton.</p>
<p>For keen students of Australian politics, Nemesis contains few major revelations. The series mostly confirms what we knew. But to witness the sheer awfulness of the era distilled into four and a half hours of television is both gripping and sobering.</p>
<h2>The Abbott years</h2>
<p>The first episode deals with the Abbott years. It is remarkable how early his prime ministership unravelled, beginning with the government’s first budget delivered by Joe Hockey in May 2014, notoriously invoking “a nation of lifters, not leaners”. It was a catalogue of swingeing cuts and broken promises (Abbott had pledged no cuts to health or education during the 2013 election campaign). When some Liberal colleagues dared to broach with the prime minister the budget’s breaches of trust, he dismissed them with angry invective.</p>
<p>The Abbott government never really recovered. The prime minister’s other problems included internal resentment at his overbearing chief of staff, Peta Credlin, and his own leadership idiosyncrasies. The latter was exemplified by his captain’s call to knight Prince Philip on Australia Day 2015. This rendered him a national laughing stock. </p>
<p>One new thing we learn about the Abbott years is that the prime minister proposed deploying the military to Ukraine in the wake of the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 by Russian-backed separatists that killed 38 Australian citizens and residents. He was thankfully talked out of the plan by Angus Houston, who Abbott had appointed as a special envoy to Ukraine to repatriate the bodies of the Australian victims. </p>
<p>The end for Abbott came less than two years into the job. Easily forgotten, Nemesis revisits the so-called “empty chair spill” of February 2015, prompted by a backbencher motion to declare the leadership vacant. </p>
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<p>Despite there being no challenger — Malcolm Turnbull was biding his time until Abbott’s leadership “burnt down to the water line” — the spill motion garnered 39 votes providing a comical scenario of a sizeable minority of the party preferring an empty chair to the incumbent. Chastened by that result, Abbott then caused incredulity among colleagues by proclaiming that “good government begins today”. Effectively his leadership was now on death watch, with Turnbull and his allies circling and counting numbers. </p>
<p>In September 2015, Turnbull struck. He sanctifies the challenge as in the national interest: “I owed it to Australia”. Scott Morrison was party to the deposition and would be rewarded with the position of treasurer in Turnbull’s government, though he characteristically dissembles about the role he and his lieutenants played in Abbott’s fall. Nemesis has a delicious footnote to Turnbull’s ousting of Abbott. The former recalls that in the weeks that followed he reached out to inquire about his predecessor’s wellbeing. According to Turnbull, Abbott did not welcome the approach, telling him “to fuck off”.</p>
<h2>The Turnbull years</h2>
<p>Episode two, the most compelling of the series, commences with the Turnbull prime ministership’s buoyant beginnings. The public were relieved to see the back of Abbott and welcomed enthusiastically the ostensibly progressive Turnbull. He soared in the polls. </p>
<p>But his leadership was compromised from the start. Attorney-general in the government, George Brandis, refers to the Faustian bargain Turnbull had made to win the prime ministership. He had agreed to not rock the conservative boat in crucial areas like climate change and same sex marriage. With time, this eroded his authenticity.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s hope was that a decisive election victory in 2016 would empower him to assert his true political colours. Yet, as Nemesis records, the opposite happened. The double dissolution election of July was ruinous to his leadership. The eight-week campaign was too long, his performance on the hustings uninspired. Losing the electoral fat that Abbott had won in 2013 and returned to office with the barest majority, the result diminished Turnbull’s authority and emboldened his conservative critics, not least a vengeful Abbott.</p>
<p>As Nemesis tells it, notwithstanding some achievements on the international stage led by Turnbull and Julie Bishop, there were few bright spots for the government after that. The successful same sex marriage plebiscite of the second half of 2017 occurred on Turnbull’s watch but, fascinatingly, Liberal champions of that measure are grudging about his leadership on the issue. The suggestion is that he was circumspect in his advocacy, fearing a right-wing blowback.</p>
<p>As when he lost the Liberal leadership to Abbott in December 2009, it was climate change policy that finally lit the fuse under Turnbull’s prime ministership. The National Energy Guarantee (NEG), a policy crafted by Josh Frydenberg, was meant to end the climate wars but instead became a lightning rod for conservative dissent in the winter of 2018. With the NEG meeting resistance in the Coalition joint party room, Turnbull retreated, symptomatic of his prime ministership.</p>
<p>The fulcrum of Nemesis’s narrative of Turnbull’s prime ministership is a blow by blow account of his extraordinary week-long overthrow in August 2018. For this cause, he would dig in and fight. With regicide in the air, the week opened with Turnbull endeavouring to salvage his leadership by calling a surprise spill motion. Dutton, the right-wing hard man who Turnbull scathingly describes as “a thug”, challenged for the leadership, losing relatively narrowly. Eric Abetz, Abbott’s henchman, recalls mirthfully that at that point Turnbull’s leadership was “over and out”. Revenge was sweet.</p>
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<p>Mortally wounded, Turnbull nevertheless remained determined to stave off Dutton, the conservative’s candidate. A revelation about events during that febrile week is that Turnbull considered heading off his opponents by calling an election. It is a remarkable admission, and we are left to wonder whether the governor-general would have granted an election in those circumstances and if the government would have completely imploded in the event of him taking that course. </p>
<p>In recounting his downfall, Turnbull seems strangely blind to the parallel between his deposition of Abbott in 2015 and the conservative insurrection of August 2018. It takes chutzpah for him to protest that the latter was “an obscene parody, a complete travesty of democracy”.</p>
<p>With support leaching away, including the defection of senior ministers, Turnbull bowed to the inevitable. Choosing not to stand in a second leadership ballot, it became a three way contest between Dutton, Bishop and Morrison, with the latter manoeuvring through the middle to prevail. Morrison insists he only entered the race when it was clear that Turnbull’s leadership was terminal. Turnbull alleges otherwise, accusing Morrison of having “played a double game”. The episode ends with Turnbull offering another pungent character assessment, this time of his successor: “duplicitous”.</p>
<h2>The Morrison years</h2>
<p>Nemesis concludes with Morrison’s prime ministership. The leadership conflict might have been over but it still has many unedifying moments. Being most recent, the story is familiar with even fewer surprises. It errs towards generosity to Morrison, not fully capturing why his leadership became a byword for inauthenticity, a prime minister whose obsession with the theatre of politics consistently trumped substance.</p>
<p>The documentary springs directly to Morrison’s self-proclaimed “miracle” re-election of May 2019. Christopher Pyne puts a more realistic note on the result observing that many in the Coalition “decided they had won the election because they were geniuses as opposed to the fact that we had won because Labor had thrown it away”. As a consequence, a “lack of humility infected” the government.</p>
<p>The episode recalls many of the notorious statements made by Morrison, which by suggesting he was evading responsibility, was a bully or lacked empathy, corroded his public image, especially among women voters. “I don’t hold a hose, mate” (after disappearing to Hawaii in the midst of the Black Summer bushfires), “she can go” (monstering Australia Post CEO, Christine Holgate), and “not far from here such marches, even now, are being met by bullets” (about a women’s justice rally at Parliament House) are examples.</p>
<p>Asked about the comments, Morrison admits to poor choices of words. Yet, he is equally quick to complain of his words being “weaponised” and to protest that he was misrepresented. The effect conveys that he continues to struggle to accept responsibility. An unfortunate habit of smugness when explaining himself adds to this impression.</p>
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<p>Nemesis shows that the COVID pandemic was both a blessing and curse for the Morrison government. Fighting the pandemic gave the government a purpose that it otherwise lacked. The early decisions such as creating the national cabinet and intervening in the economy headlined by the JobKeeper program were its finest hours. </p>
<p>Things went awry, however, as the pandemic progressed. Political game playing resurfaced and tensions with the premiers festered. And then, of course, there were delays in procuring and distributing vaccines. Health bureaucrat Jane Halton is damming: “manifestly we had longer lockdowns than we actually needed to have because we didn’t have supply and rollout as others”.</p>
<p>Nemesis devotes considerable time to the AUKUS pact and the reneging on the agreement to buy submarines from France. Morrison paints AUKUS as the proudest legacy of his prime ministership. He was concerned that the French built conventional submarines would have been “obsolete before they got wet”. He is unfazed that French President Emmanuel Macron labelled him a liar: “I’ve got big shoulders”. Turnbull, who signed the agreement with Macron for the purchase of the French submarines, provides the critical commentary on AUKUS: “Morrison sacrificed Australian security, sovereignty and honour”.</p>
<p>The picture that emerges of the final months of Morrison’s prime ministership is of a divided government that was a spent force. A commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 brought relations with the Nationals to breaking point. It was too little too late to change the public’s opinion that the Coalition was a laggard on climate change action.</p>
<p>Morrison then expended dwindling political capital by fruitlessly pursuing religious rights protections, causing ructions with Liberal moderates. Nemesis draws a connection between Morrison’s evangelical religious faith and this prime-ministerial frolic. The viewer is also invited to draw the dots between his faith and his politically disastrous and morally culpable handpicking of the anti-transgender Liberal candidate Katherine Deves to contest the 2022 election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-morrisons-can-do-capitalism-and-conservative-masculinity-may-not-be-cutting-through-anymore-183118">Why Morrison's ‘can-do’ capitalism and conservative masculinity may not be cutting through anymore</a>
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<p>Morrison’s colleagues are unsparing in assessing him as politically toxic by the time of the 2022 election. Some even approached Treasurer Josh Frydenberg about challenging Morrison’s leadership: Frydenberg rebuffed their overtures. Tim Wilson, like Frydenberg a casualty of the Teal insurgency, compares the depth of public sentiment against the prime minister to “having a 10,000 tonne boulder attached to your leg”. </p>
<p>Morrison’s secret commandeering of five ministries was the sting in the tail of his prime ministership. Nemesis records the shock and appal of his colleagues when those actions were revealed. His explanations of his behaviour are unpersuasive as are his expressions of contrition. He says he has apologised to former treasurer Frydenberg and that they have “reconnected and as good a friends as you could hope for”. Frydenberg puts it differently: “it impacted the relationship and does to this day”. We are left with the suspicion that once again Morrison is bending the truth.</p>
<h2>A decade of banality and pettiness</h2>
<p>What can we take away from all this? Participants in the documentary draw on classical allusions in making sense of the chaos. We are told, for instance, that the leadership feud between Abbott and Turnbull was Shakespearean. Yet what Nemesis exposes is the banality of these events and the pettiness of the actors. One searches vainly for a sense of higher mission or nobility of bearing. </p>
<p>None of the three major protagonists emerge well. Abbott is deeply eccentric, leery of criticism and hopelessly incapable of adjusting to the positive tasks of governing; Turnbull is bloated with self-regard, merciless about the faults of others and yet timorous when he had the chance to make his mark; and Morrison is deceitful and bullying, a man whose governing declined into vacuity.</p>
<p>There have been other occasions in the past when national leadership has descended into tawdriness. The Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard years were defined by internecine warfare, but at least Gillard exhibited resoluteness in the way she governed and dignity in the way she left office. </p>
<p>The post-Menzies Liberal triumvirate of Harold Holt, John Gorton and William McMahon were respectively overwhelmed by the office, reckless and pygmy like. We can go back further for episodes of leadership delinquency to the debilitating feuding between Earle Page and Robert Menzies on the eve of the second world war and even further to the egomaniacal and conflict ridden prime ministership of Billy Hughes. </p>
<p>Yet arguably the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison era represents a nadir when it comes to Australian national leadership.</p>
<p>Focussed on the blood-letting and human follies of the Coalition years, Nemesis is silent on the bigger forces roiling national politics, the eroding bases of the major parties and a hyperactive and polarised media to name the obvious. </p>
<p>The task of leadership has become more fraught in this environment. Yet this does not afford an alibi for the degraded governance of 2013-22. Successful incumbents from the past — Alfred Deakin, John Curtin, Ben Chifley, Robert Menzies, Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Howard — provide a template for prime-ministerial achievement in all seasons. It begins with being steadfastly bound to a larger purpose, without which politics can easily degenerate into destructive vanities and mindless absurdities as Nemesis painfully illustrates.</p>
<p>As ghastly a spectacle as it presents, this is its powerful lesson.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past.</span></em></p>Arguably, the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison era represents a nadir when it comes to the history of Australian national leadership.Paul Strangio, Emeritus professor of politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178122023-12-31T20:27:44Z2023-12-31T20:27:44ZCabinet papers 2003: Howard government sends Australia into the Iraq war<p>By far the most significant decision the Howard government made in 2003 was to support the invasion of Iraq. Journalists and historians have <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/iraq-lessons-the-cabinet-submission-that-never-was/">long maintained</a> there was no submission to full cabinet weighing the pros and cons of the Australian intervention. Cabinet papers from 2003 released today by the National Archives of Australia confirm this.</p>
<p>While the Howard government had many other important issues to manage in that year, the Iraq War consumed most attention and sparked most debate in the wider community.</p>
<h2>Entering the war</h2>
<p>Cabinet’s National Security Committee had been closely monitoring Iraq and its possible possession of weapons of mass destruction. But in March 2003, Prime Minister John Howard <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/iraq-2003-retrospective">asked the full cabinet</a> to confirm the decision to commit Australia to war. </p>
<p>Despite US urging, the UN Security Council failed to authorise the use of force. It preferred instead to exhaust all opportunities for diplomacy. </p>
<p>On March 18, Howard informed his cabinet colleagues that US President George W. Bush had given Iraqi President Saddam Hussein <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/mar/18/iraq.usa1">an ultimatum</a>. Australia was asked to support the United States if Iraq did not fully comply with Bush’s demands. </p>
<p>In the absence of explicit Security Council authorisation, Howard relied for legal justification on a <a href="https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA108837721&sid=sitemap&v=2.1&it=r&p=EAIM&sw=w&userGroupName=anon%7Eeba0625d&aty=open-web-entry">memorandum of advice</a>, signed by two officials at the level of first assistant secretary from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Attorney-General’s Department. Iraq, the memorandum argued, had not complied with earlier Security Council resolutions on weapons of mass destruction. Consequently, Australian participation in military intervention would be legal.</p>
<p>Gavan Griffith, Australia’s solicitor-general from 1984-1997, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/this-war-is-illegal-howards-last-top-law-man-20030321-gdggwb.html">regarded the legal advice</a> as “untenable” and “Alice in Wonderland nonsense”. </p>
<p>The memorandum was nonetheless important for persuading public opinion. Governor-General Peter Hollingworth had earlier asked to see legal advice from the attorney-general, perhaps assuming the decision would be his, acting on advice from the government. Howard advised Hollingworth there was <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3033384">no need</a> to refer to the governor-general any decision to commit Australia to war. </p>
<p>The Howard government instead proceeded with the defence minister using his legal powers under the Defence Act as amended in 1975. This alleviated any need for the attorney-general to provide legal advice to the governor-general, as Sir John Kerr <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/kerr-fraser-conflict-a-precedent-for-gg-intervention-20220821-p5bbjl">had demanded</a> of the Fraser government in 1977 in regard to appointing the head of the Department of the Special Trade Negotiator, for which Howard was the responsible minister. </p>
<p>The cabinet minute of March 18 2003 smoothed the legal and constitutional difficulties. The attorney-general, it read, agreed with the memorandum submitted by the first assistant secretaries. The governor-general had been consulted but did not need to give his approval, and cabinet had agreed to send Australian troops to war. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/iraq-20-years-on-death-came-from-the-skies-on-march-19-2003-and-the-killing-continues-to-this-day-201988">Iraq 20 years on: death came from the skies on March 19 2003 – and the killing continues to this day</a>
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<p>Proceeding without a cabinet submission enabled Howard to <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-enduring-lessons-of-the-iraq-war/">dispense with advice</a> to cabinet on four other matters. </p>
<p>One was the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/iraq-how-we-were-duped-20050514-ge05vq.html">circumstantial nature</a> of the intelligence used to justify the invasion. </p>
<p>Another was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/iraq-20-years-on-death-came-from-the-skies-on-march-19-2003-and-the-killing-continues-to-this-day-201988">sectarian chaos</a> that could have been predicted to follow in Iraq. </p>
<p>A third was the danger of military intervention <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/iran-and-iraq-war-2003-real-victor">empowering Iran</a>. </p>
<p>A fourth was the consequences for the Australian-United States alliance. Any decision to rebuff Bush’s request would have been treated coldly by his administration. Howard <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/iraq-lessons-the-cabinet-submission-that-never-was-part-2/">was determined</a> to take advantage of the Iraq war to strengthen the alliance. </p>
<p>Another middle power and NATO ally, Canada, demonstrated its independence without incurring Washington’s enduring resentment. Prime Minister Jean Chretien <a href="https://opencanada.org/how-canadas-intelligence-agencies-helped-keep-the-country-out-of-the-2003-iraq-war/">insisted</a> Canada would not join in military action without United Nations authorisation. The leader of the Labor opposition, Simon Crean, eventually <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/simon-crean-stuck-to-his-guns-on-the-iraq-war-and-was-proven-right-20230626-p5djif.html">adopted this position</a> too. </p>
<p>Officials in the Department of Defence and Foreign Affairs and Trade <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/iraq-lessons-the-impact-of-the-howard-fib/">did not regard it as their role</a> to offer strategic advice on matters already decided by ministers. This pattern of policy-making indicated the <a href="https://meanjin.com.au/essays/my-how-things-have-changed/">increasing subordination</a> of the public service to ministers since the 1980s. It also reflected the increasingly presidential view Howard had of the office of prime minister. </p>
<p>In 2003, public opinion <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/polls-apart-on-whether-this-is-a-conflict-worth-waging-20030401-gdgizs.html">was opposed</a> to Australian participation in the war. However, the government was aided by the <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/node/62/wrap-xhr#mtr">effusive support</a> of News Corporation papers for its position on the war. </p>
<h2>Beyond the war</h2>
<p>The release includes many other submissions and decisions. Some relate to negotiation of a free trade agreement with the United States. </p>
<p>Ten years after the agreement came into force, however, <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-costs-of-australias-free-trade-agreement-with-america/">analysis showed</a> it had diverted trade away from the lowest-cost sources. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme was also affected. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-trade-deal-undermined-australias-pbs-32573">How the US trade deal undermined Australia's PBS</a>
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<p>Other papers relate to health policy. Howard sought to blunt an effective Labor campaign against the erosion of the rate of bulk-billing under Medicare. Accordingly, Health Minister Kay Patterson introduced a A$900 million package.</p>
<p>“A Fairer Medicare” was highly criticised, including by a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/medicare/fairer_medicare/index">Senate inquiry</a>. It described the package as a “decisive step away from the principle of universality that has underpinned Medicare since its inception”. </p>
<p>With the 2004 election looming, Patterson was replaced by Tony Abbott, who later announced a compromise package called <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-backs-medicare-plus-reforms-20031202-gdhwa7.html">Medicare Plus</a>. It achieved more success by including higher reimbursements for doctors and an extended Medicare safety net aimed at addressing out-of-pocket costs. </p>
<p>A decision on the environment is also noteworthy. Howard appointed a committee to devise an affordable long-term plan to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. An emissions trading scheme was recommended.</p>
<p>The plan received the backing of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, as well as that of Treasurer Peter Costello, Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane and Environment Minister David Kemp. In July, the strategy was taken to cabinet but later, after discussions with industry representatives, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/howard-blows-hot-and-cold-on-emissions-20061115-ge3kkq.html">Howard dumped it</a>. </p>
<p>Years later, in 2006, under pressure from the “millennium drought”, Howard changed his mind and accepted Treasury’s advice to adopt an emissions trading scheme. Howard’s Labor successors, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, implemented the scheme. In 2013, the Abbott government demolished the scheme with the enthusiastic support of business. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-too-hard-basket-a-short-history-of-australias-aborted-climate-policies-101812">The too hard basket: a short history of Australia's aborted climate policies</a>
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<h2>Resources boom – and missed opportunities</h2>
<p>In October 2003, the leaders of the United States and China both visited Australia. This offered hope Australia could maintain a constructive relationship with its closest ally as well as its major trading partner. </p>
<p>By 2003, Australia was on the cusp of one its greatest resource booms, fuelled by Chinese demand. The boom gave the government space to turn its attention to a range of reforms in areas such as defence, health, communications and education policy. </p>
<p>Three opportunities were missed in 2003. </p>
<p>One was to establish a sovereign wealth fund to invest the temporary windfall gains from the mining boom. </p>
<p>A second was to establish an emissions trading scheme. </p>
<p>A third was to advance progress on constitutional recognition of Indigenous people.
This had to wait until 2007 when Howard at last <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/the-quest-for-indigenous-recognition/john-howard#:%7E:text=I%20n%20October%202007%2C%20in,was%20to%20be%20re%2Delected.">recommended a referendum</a> to recognise the role of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in Australian history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lee is a member of Australians for War Powers Reform. </span></em></p>The 2003 Cabinet papers, released today by the National Archives of Australia, reveal the machinations over Australia’s entry into the Iraq war.David Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2155322023-10-12T09:40:59Z2023-10-12T09:40:59ZGrattan on Friday: Did Anthony Albanese realise what a rough journey this referendum would be?<p>Anthony Albanese has invested heart, soul and political authority in his battle to change the Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. His tears this week at Uluru, when surrounded and celebrated by Aboriginal women, showed a deep well of emotion. </p>
<p>If, as the polls indicate, the Voice is defeated on Saturday, it will be a devastating rebuff for the prime minister. He’ll have raised Indigenous hopes only to see them dashed. He’ll have led Australians on an arduous journey only to have them desert him before the destination. Did Albanese realise how risky this bold constitutional gamble would be? Some colleagues will shake their heads at his judgement. </p>
<p>Whatever a defeat would do immediately to Labor’s rating, it wouldn’t necessarily have much effect in the longer term. The reason partly goes to why Albanese couldn’t persuade more people to vote “yes”. </p>
<p>For a large swathe of voters, the Voice is a second or third order issue. At the 2025 election, most voters will have first order issues on their minds – their own economic circumstance, assessments of the government’s general competence, what they think of the Dutton alternative. The Voice will have receded into history. </p>
<p>Immediately, however, a loss would trigger bitterness and anger among many Indigenous people, feeling they’ve been spurned by other Australians. Albanese will need – as a fallback – a plan to try to tackle Indigenous disadvantage by another route. </p>
<p>This bruising referendum campaign has given insights about the various players and our society more generally. </p>
<p>If it’s shown that Albanese, mostly cautious as leader, has been willing to back himself to the point of overreach, it’s also reinforced Peter Dutton’s image as a hardball, Tony Abbott-style opposition leader. </p>
<p>Just as Abbott was brutally relentless in fighting Labor on climate change, so Dutton has been in prosecuting the “no” case. Negative politics fits Dutton like a glove, and he’s made the most of this opportunity, while losing some prominent Liberals to the “yes” campaign. He’ll receive a dose of immediate blame, and pay a price on the Liberals’ left flank, in teal seats the party needs to regain. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-no-win-will-make-it-harder-for-government-to-tackle-indigenous-disadvantage-albanese-215232">A 'no' win will make it harder for government to tackle Indigenous disadvantage: Albanese</a>
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<p>The referendum has highlighted what many have previously overlooked or denied: that Indigenous Australians (like other Australians) aren’t of one political mind. </p>
<p>During the campaign, Albanese repeatedly said the Voice enjoys more than 80% support among Indigenous people. This was based on polling early in the year; a Resolve poll of 420 people reported in Nine newspapers this week put support at 59%.</p>
<p>It’s unsurprising there are differing views. Indigenous politics is robust. Also, Australia’s “First Nations"include a multitude of nations, with some smaller nations concerned larger ones will dominate a Voice. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://research.csu.edu.au/engage-with-us/yindyamarra-nguluway">Yindyamarra Nguluway research program</a> at Charles Sturt University has involved yarns with 24 elders. The findings show elders divided on voting "yes”. The key issues include a lack of trust in the process of change. There is also some dismay the change process has been couched in the context of giving a Voice to Parliament to nations that have never ceded sovereignty.</p>
<p>Although the Uluṟu Statement from the Heart is viewed as an important step forward many of these elders view it to be an elite invention. Nevertheless the general view is that the Voice is a necessary gateway into a more detailed conversation about the future of Australian democracy.</p>
<p>Indigenous leaders have been on the front lines of the “yes” and “no” campaigns: Noel Pearson, Megan Davis (“yes”), Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Warren Mundine (“no”), Senator Lidia Thorpe (progressive “no”). They’re articulating different philosophies. </p>
<p>Labor senator Pat Dodson, dubbed the “father of reconciliation” for his work over decades, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-11/labor-senator-pat-dodson-addresses-press-club/102962634">told the National Press Club this week</a>: “This is the first time that we’ve had in the public space a clear division between Aboriginal leaders. […] That division is quite substantial. It’s not just a matter of opinion. </p>
<p>"It’s a division based on whether you understand our history, that this nation was colonised, Aboriginal people were forcibly subjugated, that they were denied the opportunity to have a say on how they were going to be impacted. Or whether you say it was all cosy and that we were picked up in a truck and taken into the Winter Wonderland and we lived there forever in some sort of rose garden. </p>
<p>"Now, the sad part about the debate is […] if the No camp campaign gets up, it’ll be a debate about assimilation and co-option. That’ll be where the debate in the future goes. And I don’t think we should be having that debate, because assimilation is a very toxic word to many Aboriginal people.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-langton-and-price-fight-with-passion-and-gloves-off-for-beliefs-213541">Grattan on Friday: Langton and Price fight with passion and gloves off for beliefs</a>
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<p>Price denies her position is assimilationist but that’s certainly its flavour. She and some other “no” leaders argue the emphasis should be on need, not Indigeneity; “yes” leaders emphasise Indigeneity as well as need.</p>
<p>The referendum has been a case study in how, on such a polarising issue, racism and nastiness will quickly and inevitably break the surface of the “respectful debate” both sides have claimed they want. </p>
<p>Social media and the nature of contemporary politics have undoubtedly debased this particular referendum. But it’s also an old story. Robert Menzies’ 1951 (unsuccessful) referendum to ban the Communist Party was vitriolic. Anne Henderson’s <a href="https://www.connorcourtpublishing.com.au/MENZIES-vs-EVATT-The-Great-Rivalry-of-Australian-Politics--Anne-Henderson_p_548.html">recent book Menzies versus Evatt</a> recounts how, when Menzies opened the “yes” campaign in Melbourne, then senator (later PM) John Gorton “wrestled with one interjector, allegedly snatching at the man’s collar and shouting. ‘Come outside, you yellow rat.’ Police were reported as dragging the senator away rather than the interjector.” At another meeting, when Menzies stood to speak, “an interjector shouted, ‘Heil Hitler’”. Menzies had a quick retort, “You call me Hitler and [opposition leader] Dr Evatt calls me Goebbels – make up your mind”. Propaganda came in pamphlet form rather than via the internet but it was just as gross.</p>
<p>In a democracy, sometimes giving people their say can mean enduring or dealing with a lot of bad behaviour. </p>
<p>After many weeks of people calling out some appalling examples of racism in the referendum, suddenly we see disturbing signs of ethnic hate flare in a totally different context – Hamas’s weekend atrocities and Israel’s retaliation.</p>
<p>The activities of neo-Nazis in Australia might be limited but they appear to have increased. ASIO has repeatedly warned about the growth of right-wing extremism. Even so, to hear chants of “Gas the Jews” at Monday’s Sydney pro-Palestinian rally was extraordinarily shocking. </p>
<p>ASIO head Mike Burgess warned in a Thursday statement, “It is important that all parties consider the implications for social cohesion when making public statements. […] Words matter. ASIO has seen direct connections between inflamed language and inflamed community tensions.”</p>
<p>We should not stop people expressing their views through demonstrations. We should, however, crack down on hate speech, whether it’s directed at those of the Jewish faith, Indigenous people, or anyone else. </p>
<p>CORRECTION: This story has been corrected to say Price and some other “no” leaders argue the emphasis should be on need, not Indigeneity; “yes” leaders emphasise Indigeneity as well as need. The original had “no” and “yes” the wrong way round.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The referendum has highlighted what many have previously overlooked or denied: that Indigenous Australians (like other Australians) aren’t of one political mindMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149602023-10-11T19:06:33Z2023-10-11T19:06:33Z‘We should be listening’: the long history of Liberal innovation – and failure – on Indigenous policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552624/original/file-20231007-19-4viaai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains the names and images of deceased people.</em></p>
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<p>We have had compelling accounts from Indigenous activists of “<a href="https://www.griffithreview.com/articles/long-road-uluru-walking-together-truth-before-justice-megan-davis/">the long road to Uluru</a>”. But another perspective on the Voice debate can also be gleaned from the political insiders – especially Coalition leaders – who engaged with Indigenous communities, learned from them, sought to develop consultative and policy solutions, yet failed to “close the gap”.</p>
<p>The furious opposition of the current Coalition parties to the Voice disowns their own history and an initiative that was arguably their own creation. So it is illuminating to explore their divergence from some of their former leaders who were passionate about trying to fix Indigenous disadvantage.</p>
<p>Paul Hasluck, journalist, historian, and diplomat was elected for the Liberals to parliament in 1949. Growing up in country Western Australia with Indigenous friends, he empathised with their connection to Country. </p>
<p>Curiosity stimulated his masters thesis, Black Australians, an account of 19th century relations between Indigenous people and colonists in Western Australia, published in 1942. He was appointed minister for territories in 1951.</p>
<p>He sought first to work with the states but faced resistance: they insisted they were already doing everything possible for “native welfare” and that it was a minor problem. Hasluck tried to bring change to the Northern Territory, hoping success would induce states to follow his lead. The difficulties were considerable: a department whose efforts were desultory, an administration that dragged its feet, a lack of bureaucratic and economic infrastructure in the Territory.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552612/original/file-20231007-15-v2l57o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Minister for Territories Paul Hasluck tried to introduce policies to ameliorate Indigenous disadvantage, but ultimately failed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.robertmenziesinstitute.org.au/afternoon-light-podcast/william-sanders">Robert Menzies Institute</a></span>
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<p>Hasluck persisted, aware of key factors driving policy failure in settler-Indigenous relations: racism, inequality, disparity in administration across states, inability to ameliorate Indigenous disadvantage, denial of agency. He sought to address this through cooperative federalism. </p>
<p>But his was a vision of assimilation, limited by inherited patterns of thought. It discounted the affiliations that tied Indigenous people to social and group identity. </p>
<p>Hasluck <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/1891893">eventually understood</a> that he had been captured by tunnel vision. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>My outlook on aboriginal welfare […] influenced by the evangelism of mid and late Victorian England […] placed emphasis on the individual. The individual made the choice and made the effort and as a result was changed. This influence […] meant that we did not see clearly the ways in which the individual is bound by membership of a family or a group.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Success in 1967 – but deep division remains</h2>
<p>In the 1950s and 1960s, widespread recognition of the need for change led to bipartisan support for and success in the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/May/The_1967_Referendum">1967 constitutional referendum</a>. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Harold Holt then established the Council for Aboriginal Affairs. His successor, <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-2408">Billy McMahon, signalled policy change</a>. McMahon said Indigenous peoples </p>
<blockquote>
<p>should be encouraged and assisted to preserve and develop their culture, their languages, their traditions and arts so that these can become living elements in the diverse culture of Australian society.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>McMahon tried to bridge divisions in his Coalition by offering a Northern Territory Land Board that could grant 50-year leases to Indigenous groups that could prove a long and continuing connection with land, rather than the land rights Indigenous groups were demanding. The fallout was such that it sparked the establishment of the <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/aboriginal-tent-embassy">Aboriginal Tent embassy</a> in 1972.</p>
<p>So it was that Gough Whitlam picked up the baton, making land rights a centrepiece of Labor policy. Among his initiatives were the Racial Discrimination Act (1975) expunging state laws restricting the rights of Indigenous people. He also established <a href="https://antar.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/The-Woodward-Royal-Commission-Factsheet-1.pdf">a royal commission</a> into land rights in the Northern Territory. The Whitlam government’s Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Bill (1975) was drawn from its recommendations.</p>
<h2>Fraser picks up where Whitlam left off</h2>
<p>However, it was Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser who, in 1976, passed the Land Rights legislation that Whitlam had developed, but had been unable to progress in the Senate before his 1975 dismissal. He also passed the Aboriginal Councils and Association Act, allowing Indigenous bodies to register as corporations for community purposes. </p>
<p>This was the foundation for hundreds of Indigenous corporations, a springboard for community development that stimulated the emergence of Indigenous social entrepreneurs. Once a staunch assimilationist, Fraser had visited remote communities, met with impressive Indigenous leaders such as Galarrway Yunupingu, and now Indigenous policy reform became part of his broader Human Rights Agenda.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552614/original/file-20231007-23-f71u4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Malcolm Fraser and Galarrwuy Yunupingu in Arnhem Land, 1978.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.naa.gov.au/explore-collection/australias-prime-ministers/malcolm-fraser/during-office">National Archives of Australia</a></span>
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<p>Fraser established an Aboriginal Development Commission, directed by Charlie Perkins, and a National Aboriginal Conference, (NAC) chaired by Lowitja O’Donoghue. His Administrative Appeals Tribunal (1977) and Human Rights Commission (1981) provided additional avenues for Indigenous scrutiny and appeal against decisions affecting them.</p>
<p>All of these were opposed from within the Coalition parties themselves. Their carriage required resolute action. They were radical initiatives in conservative circles. Yet, <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/malcolm-fraser-paperback-softback">reflecting later</a>, Fraser rued that he was too timid, that he should have acted on an idea raised by the NAC: to negotiate a treaty.</p>
<h2>Command and control rather than community engagement</h2>
<p>John Howard’s policy initiatives were the next significant Coalition incursion into Indigenous conditions. He provoked Indigenous leaders by refusing to apologise for the actions of past governments. He abolished Bob Hawke’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders Commission (ATSIC) – the first legislated attempt to combine consultation and program management under Indigenous leadership – announcing the “experiment” in self-determination had failed.</p>
<p>His legislative response to the <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/sites/default/files/research_pub/wik-coexistance-pastrol-leases-mining-nati-vetitle-ten-point-plan_0_3.pdf">Wik High Court decision</a> enabled him to amend the Keating government’s landmark <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/about-native-title">Native Title Act</a>, itself a response to the High Court’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-mabo-decision-and-native-title-74147">Mabo decision</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, he endorsed the Northern Territory Emergency Response (NTER), a remarkable attempt to address dysfunction and restore order in remote communities by mobilising army and police intervention where Indigenous responsibility had failed. Significantly, it was also Howard who first raised the prospect of Constitutional recognition.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-years-on-its-time-we-learned-the-lessons-from-the-failed-northern-territory-intervention-79198">Ten years on, it's time we learned the lessons from the failed Northern Territory Intervention</a>
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<p>Howard had a clear rationale for each of these steps. Apology, Howard argued, could only be offered by the perpetrator of wrongs. ATSIC, despite research now confirming <a href="https://www.nla.gov.au/stories/video/fellowship-presentation-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-commission-toward#:%7E:text=In%2520this%2520Fellowship%2520presentation%252C%2520Associate,its%2520achievements%2520and%2520its%2520legacies.">the extent of its achievement</a> under the indomitable Indigenous public servants Lowitja O’Donoghue and Pat Turner, had later fallen under heavy scrutiny before being abolished in 2005. It was also subject to incandescent <a href="https://www.griffithreview.com/articles/the-end-of-big-men-politics/">critique by Indigenous leaders</a> and lost the faith of the Labor Party which had created it. </p>
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<p>The Wik decision, like Mabo, demanded legislative address. The NTER was a response to a <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/resources/ampe-akelyernemane-meke-mekarle-little-children-are-sacred-report-of-the-northern-territory-board-of-inquiry-into-the-protection-of-aboriginal-children-from-sexual-abuse/">devastating report of domestic violence and child abuse</a>, and had followed advice, and was supported, by influential Indigenous public intellectuals such as Marcia Langton and Noel Pearson. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/many-claim-australias-longest-running-indigenous-body-failed-heres-why-thats-wrong-209511">Many claim Australia’s longest-running Indigenous body failed. Here’s why that’s wrong</a>
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<p>It was these Indigenous advisers, too, who persuaded Howard to support Constitutional recognition. Nonetheless, major initiatives proceeded hurriedly, without explanation or consultation with the Indigenous communities affected.</p>
<h2>The Coalition’s reconciliation agenda leads to Uluru</h2>
<p>It is striking, if one leaves aside the inadequacy of Tony Abbott’s <a href="https://www.indigenous.gov.au/indigenous-advancement-strategy">Indigenous Advancement Strategy</a> (which again ignored the necessity of community engagement), or the Coalition’s outsourcing or offloading to states of Closing the Gap arrangements, that the next significant initiative was fostered by a bipartisan meeting on advancing reconciliation between Abbott (with Bill Shorten) and Indigenous leaders. </p>
<p>There followed a Referendum Council established by Abbott’s successor, Malcolm Turnbull, with a sub-committee of the same Indigenous leaders tasked with creating a dialogue on reconciliation with Indigenous communities nationwide. It led directly to the National Constitutional Convention that delivered the Uluru Statement in 2017. </p>
<p>The Uluru Statement then, responding to years of lobbying by those most closely engaged with Indigenous disadvantage, was developed by Indigenous representatives with the encouragement of successive Coalition administrations. </p>
<p>Yet it was Turnbull who declared that its proposal for a Voice referendum was not politically feasible. Turnbull has since <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-opens-up-on-his-changing-opinions-with-the-voice-referendum/video/86257acb8aaca03e967961d569277b8a">endorsed the current referendum</a>, arguing “a lot has changed since then […] the Indigenous community has backed this in for six years […] we should be listening to how they want to be recognised”.</p>
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<h2>A Coalition trapped by ‘settler liberalism’</h2>
<p>Some of these engaged politicians looked back with remorse and saw how they had been constrained by their own political frameworks (Hasluck), hobbled by their colleagues’ policy priorities (McMahon, Turnbull), or too cautious (Fraser). </p>
<p>Above all, they recognised that their failure lay in not having heard what Indigenous communities told them. One might have expected the cumulative knowledge of these policy leaders to have influenced their peers. Yet what they had learned was rarely understood by their successors.</p>
<p>Partly it was a symptom of endemic short-termism. More significant, however, was another strand, exemplified by Hasluck’s rueful recollection: a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/030437540102600201">“settler liberalism”</a> that takes its own commitment to a particular form of individualistic liberal freedom so much for granted that it is blind to collective forms of social relations, and to the structural and institutional consequences of colonisation. </p>
<p>Howard and Mal Brough, the minister who so energetically drove the NTER, were undoubtedly committed to better outcomes for remote communities. They were, unlike Hasluck and Fraser, not remorseful about <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-ask-us-come-and-see-us-aboriginal-young-people-in-the-northern-territory-must-be-listened-to-not-punished-199297">the trauma and dismay that is still evident</a> as a consequence of the intervention. Instead, they were frustrated that successors had not seen it fully developed to address dysfunction in the manner proposed. Their conviction is a manifestation of the persistence of settler liberalism, now so much embedded in the contemporary Coalition’s engagement in the Voice debate.</p>
<p>So here we are, cycling back decades while the remorse of Liberal innovators about the limitations on what they could achieve is forgotten. With it, settler liberalism is reincarnated as a salve that Hasluck, Fraser and others would have thought discredited in their day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Walter has received funding from the Australian Research Council in the past for research on which this article is based. </span></em></p>Many Liberal politicians have been passionate about redressing Indigenous disadvantage, but have come unstuck by the pitfall of ‘settler liberalism’.James Walter, Emeritus Professor of Political Science, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050222023-05-04T11:51:24Z2023-05-04T11:51:24ZGrattan on Friday: Albanese enjoys London limelight while Chalmers sweats in budget spotlight<p>The timing of history. How Anglophile and monarchist Tony Abbott would love to have been the prime minister attending the coronation. To say nothing of John Howard, a key figure in fending off an Australian republic in 1999. </p>
<p>Instead it is Anthony Albanese in London, explaining on British television how he, a leader dedicated to trying to make our country a republic, is happy to be affirming allegiance to its new head of state. </p>
<p>Albanese has not been doing a bad job of smoothing any perceived contradiction, once again showing he can be a man for all occasions, some of them challenging. </p>
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<p>In his <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-pressed-by-piers-morgan-on-australian-republic-dream-ahead-of-king-charles-iiis-coronation/news-story/9faae90e9ea58667488fd830ca7dd3fe">hour-long interview with conservative Sky broadcaster Piers Morgan</a> (a surprising appearance in itself) Albanese navigated some awkward questions, retold his familiar childhood story (with detail about finding his father), which Morgan appeared to find fascinating, and juggled his republicanism with upholding Australia’s present loyalty to King Charles. </p>
<p>While vague about timing (we know he wants a republic referendum in a second term) Albanese said that when there was a public demand for another vote, “I’m sure a vote will be held”, but it wasn’t imminent.</p>
<p>Albanese notably reaffirmed his preference for “an appointed head of state”, referring to “some process whereby democratically elected institutions, in the House of Representatives and the Senate, have a say in that”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nine-things-you-should-know-about-a-potential-australian-republic-89759">Nine things you should know about a potential Australian republic</a>
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<p>Division among republicans over the model (having the president appointed by the parliament versus being popularly elected) helped sink the 1999 vote. In future, the pressure would be for a popularly elected model. The challenge for Labor, if and when it gets to a referendum, would be to deal with this demand, but avoid a model of potentially competing power centres. </p>
<p>While Albanese (who lands back in Australia on budget eve) basks in the international limelight, at home Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week has been feeling the heat of the spotlight. </p>
<p>In current politics, the days before a budget are as orchestrated by the government as budget day itself. What you read and hear about the measures are not “leaks” but so-called “drops” to the media, designed for a flow of good news ahead of time (or sometimes getting bad news out of the way). </p>
<p>More rarely there are genuine leaks – a journalist gets a real scoop, something the government didn’t intend to be out that day. Such was the <a href="https://7news.com.au/business/centrelink/major-change-coming-to-jobseeker-payments-for-227000-recipients-as-federal-budget-includes-boost-for-older-australians-c-10514696">Seven Network’s story of an anticipated rise in JobSeeker for people 55 and over</a> (those 60-plus who’ve been out of work for nine months already get a higher rate). </p>
<p>Chalmers would not confirm the accuracy of the leak, but he put up a spirited defence of the case for such a measure, which was taken as a tick. One of his arguments is that it would particularly help women, with many older unemployed women especially vulnerable. Assisting them also fits well with Labor’s gendered lens. </p>
<p>Inevitably, however, there was an immediate backlash from those speaking up for the young. The debate became a microcosm of the government’s wider problem with this budget, as Chalmers has sought to balance the need for restraint (reinforced by the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rise this week) with the strong calls for the government to meet its oft-repeated election commitment to “not leave people behind”. Albanese told Morgan: “The philosophy I took to the election was two parts, no one held back and no one left behind.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-to-spend-11-3-billion-over-four-years-to-fund-15-pay-rise-for-aged-care-workers-204919">Government to spend $11.3 billion over four years to fund 15% pay rise for aged care workers</a>
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<p>We’ve seen in this intense tug of war both the influence of the crossbench and of the usually compliant caucus. </p>
<p>It was ACT independent senator David Pocock who secured (as part of a deal to pass legislation) the economic inclusion advisory committee that <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/release-economic-inclusion-advisory-committee-report">recommended a big increase in JobSeeker for everyone</a>. A large number of Labor backbenchers publicly joined the call, adding to the squeeze on the government. </p>
<p>The budget will contain not just some welfare initiatives, including for single mothers, but other measures to address the cost-of-living crisis. The reaction to it can be expected to come from various directions. </p>
<p>The assault from the left will say that the government hasn’t done enough. Leaving “nobody behind” is a very subjective proposition. When it comes to attack, this budget is made for the Greens. The minor party has emerged as arguably more effective as an “opposition” voice than the official opposition (this is separate from a judgment on the content of what the Greens say). And Labor knows this is dangerous in the longer term, given the Greens are eating away at a few seats in the lower house. </p>
<p>For the Coalition, finding a length and line in responding to the budget could be trickier. Demanding more be done on welfare is not the Coalition’s bag. It will no doubt say not enough attention is being paid to the cost of living. But any suggestion that the budget should have spent more than whatever it does spend will undermine the Coalition argument about restraint. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-another-rate-rise-higher-tax-on-cigarettes-and-likely-jobseeker-boost-for-over-55s-204814">Word from The Hill: Another rate rise, higher tax on cigarettes, and likely JobSeeker boost for over-55s</a>
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<p>If, as speculated, the budget predicts a 2022-23 surplus, that further complicates the opposition’s reaction. The Coalition is stymied, whether it attacks from the right or (less likely) the left.</p>
<p>Depending on its precise crafting, the budget could be a slippery beast for the opposition to handle. Meanwhile Peter Dutton faces his own personal test next week. </p>
<p>In theory, an opposition leader’s budget reply this early in the term shouldn’t be of great moment. But Dutton is under the pump, with bad polling numbers and divided ranks, and so the occasion will matter. </p>
<p>When he rises in the House of Representatives on Thursday night, Dutton will require both negative and positive messages. </p>
<p>The difficulty of his task will depend partly on how the budget has been received. Beyond that, Dutton needs to unveil something substantial in policy terms, filling at least a corner of the Coalition’s current policy vacuum. </p>
<p>Not that this is easy. The Coalition can’t afford to make itself the story in a bad way. It’s already done this on the Voice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205022/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Albanese (who lands back in Australia on budget eve) basks in the international limelight, at home Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week has been feeling the heat of the spotlight.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918512022-10-09T19:10:57Z2022-10-09T19:10:57ZThe Liberal Party is in a dire state across Australia right now. That should worry us all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488831/original/file-20221008-58076-jjy784.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=347%2C0%2C3646%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“The duty of an Opposition is to oppose” – attributed to Lord Randolph Churchill – is one of those quotations I remember seeing on exam papers in high school politics classes. It is true, but only half-true.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott opposed. He opposed relentlessly. Assisted by a conservative media that also opposed relentlessly, he did much to help destroy the Labor governments of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, although they did a better job of destroying themselves. </p>
<p>When Abbott won a massive victory at the 2013 election, it was easy to proclaim him an all-time champion. In their book Battleground: Why the Liberal Party Shirtfronted Tony Abbott, Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen thought historians might one day see Abbott as the country’s “best ever opposition leader”.</p>
<p>Yet the negativity surrounding the role rarely makes opposition leaders popular. Late in 2012, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/08/tony-abbott-australias-new-prime-minister">60% of the public</a> told pollsters they disapproved of the job Abbott was doing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-learning-the-wrong-lessons-from-history-186199">Are we learning the wrong lessons from history?</a>
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<p>In most occupations, we do not treat people only capable of doing half their job as good at it. Abbott was, at best, capable of doing half his job. Even then, he brought such political aggression and opportunism to the task that it poisoned the well for when he won office. As prime minister, he continued to be the country’s most prominent opposition leader.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Some have praised Tony Abbott’s skill as an opposition leader. But opposing is only half the job.</span>
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<p>Under the system of party government that still operates in Australia, we need effective oppositions. We need them for two reasons. They are there to keep governments accountable. And they are there to prepare for being the government themselves. </p>
<p>Assuming for a moment that both sides of politics accept both democratic norms and that their mission is to serve the public good – assumptions that recent US experience, and a little of our own, suggest might be dubious – it is beneficial to have changes of government every few years. At best, it can freshen policy, challenge entrenched assumptions, and bring new personnel, energy and life to government. </p>
<p>As in sport, many people are wedded to their own “team” and want that team to win – although in Australian politics, far fewer today than a generation or two ago. But as in a sporting competition in which the same team wins every year, it is not good for democratic politics when one party is permanently excluded from office. That is why those who think the present weakness of the Liberal Party is only a cause for celebration or mockery might do well to think again.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ weakness is self-evident and, especially at the state level, part of a long-term change in the country’s electoral politics. Labor had only been a majority government once before John Cain junior became Victorian premier in 1982. In the 40 years since, it has only had three terms out of office.</p>
<p>The pattern in South Australia is similar, although the shift there occurred earlier. Decades of Liberal dominance to the mid-1960s were followed by decades of Labor dominance. In Queensland, Labor dominated from 1915 to 1957, the Country Party or Nationals (sometimes partnered by the Liberals) from then until 1989, and Labor has dominated since. In New South Wales, a Coalition government in office since 2011 has moved on to premier number four, looks tired, is often mired in scandal. It faces an uphill battle to be re-elected in March next year.</p>
<p>In the various states, the Liberal Party’s position seems dire. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-28/wa-liberals-finds-unethical-and-underhand-conduct-pre-election/100415422">A report</a> on the Western Australian branch following its reduction to two lower house seats at the 2021 state election left the impression of an organisation that was a smouldering wreck. The WA Nationals, with four seats, became the opposition. WA voters registered their views again at the 2022 federal election by awarding Labor a swing of more than 10% and electing a teal independent to a formerly safe Liberal seat. </p>
<p>The Victorian Liberal Party, once considered that party’s “jewel in the crown”, has consistently failed to present as a serious alternative to the Andrews Labor government. Its polling is dire in the lead-up to a November election, and it is a regular target of ridicule.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The situation for the federal opposition is even more dire than the 2022 election results suggest.</span>
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<p>The federal scene, too, is much worse for the Coalition parties than Labor’s poor primary vote and slight majority at the 2022 election would indicate. That election was a landslide – not in favour of Labor but against the Coalition. Its loss of seats to independents in traditional heartlands looks at least as bad – and probably worse – than the loss of blue-collar support by Labor in many of its own heartlands in the mid-1990s (the latter has, in any case, been consistently exaggerated).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-australia-just-make-a-move-to-the-left-183611">Did Australia just make a move to the left?</a>
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<p>Oppositions do more than compete for government. They also play a crucial role in keeping governments accountable. It is a rare government that can enjoy years in office without becoming just a little arrogant and entitled. Equally seriously, popular and successful governments might perform poorly in some areas. Labor governments in Victoria and WA, for example, have had significant problems in the delivery of health services. It is appropriate and important to have an opposition that can identify and criticise problems as well as suggest alternative policies and provide viable electoral competition.</p>
<p>As we head towards the 50th anniversary of the election of the Whitlam government in December, it may well be that it is Gough Whitlam’s achievements as opposition leader that should grab our attention. For what it is worth, I consider him the best opposition leader the country has seen. Why? In stark contrast with Abbott, Whitlam was successful both in keeping governments accountable and in preparing for office. No one can accuse Prime Minister Whitlam of behaving as though he were leader of the opposition.</p>
<p>Whitlam’s government had faults. But his was a government with a genuine sense of purpose. It left a significant, positive and enduring imprint on the country. That had its origins in a fruitful period of opposition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno recently wrote a commissioned essay, the research for which was funded by the Whitlam Institute at Western Sydney University, in connection with the 50th anniversary of the Whitlam Government.</span></em></p>Oppositions have two key jobs: to hold the government to account and prepare to take office themselves. At the moment, Liberal oppositions are failing on both counts.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1870212022-07-26T20:05:15Z2022-07-26T20:05:15ZWhy is Peter Dutton trying to start another political fight over the school curriculum?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474853/original/file-20220719-26-86lje8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C49%2C5416%2C3558&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a move that surprised political watchers, Liberal leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/schools-reform-a-peter-dutton-priority/news-story/5517de8583dd0e88ee428abe950442a2">says</a> the school curriculum and education reform will be some of his key priorities in opposition. </p>
<p>Despite the Morrison government signing off on the latest version of the curriculum just before the election, Dutton argues a “broader discussion” is needed. </p>
<p>As he told <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/schools-reform-a-peter-dutton-priority/news-story/5517de8583dd0e88ee428abe950442a2">The Australian</a> earlier this month, “there is a lot of non-core curriculum that is being driven by unions and by other activists that parents are concerned about”.</p>
<p>NSW Liberal senator Hollie Hughes has also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/education-system-run-by-marxists-jason-clare-takes-aim-at-liberal-senator-over-comments-on-teachers">blamed</a> her party’s election loss on “Marxist” teachers filling students’ heads with “left-wing rubbish”. </p>
<p>This may seem like an strange issue to prioritise after an election loss, with issues like climate change and cost-of-living front of mind for many voters. But there is a long tradition of “curriculum wars” in Australia, going back decades.</p>
<p>Parents concerned about this debate and what their kids may be “picking up” in the classroom should also understand this history.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1541612689109438464"}"></div></p>
<h2>Curriculum and the conservative culture wars</h2>
<p>Dutton’s attempt to reignite the culture wars harks back to former Prime Minister John Howard, who <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/howard-claims-victory-in-national-culture-wars-20060126-ge1n0k.html">railed against</a> a “black armband” view of history, “political correctness” and the “divisive, phoney debate about national identity”. Howard <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/education/keeping-a-date-with-history-20060814-ge2ws7.html">argued</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The time has also come for root and branch renewal of the teaching of Australian history in our schools […] it has succumbed to a postmodern culture of relativism where any objective record of achievement is questioned or repudiated.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following suit, as opposition leader in 2013, Tony Abbott claimed the national curriculum had become <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/history-syllabus-needs-a-rethink-says-abbott/news-story/628f52463e23cd3b20df7cc0714fe86a">politicised</a> by left-wing teachers with history underselling the contributions and heritage of Western civilisation. He said there was a</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Lack of references to our heritage, other than an Indigenous heritage, too great a focus on issues which are the predominant concern of one side of politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Once in government, Abbott ordered a review of the national curriculum in 2014, claiming that schools needed to go “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-calls-for-schools-to-go-back-to-basics-20141012-3hu4x.html">back to the basics</a>”.</p>
<p>Abbott’s handpicked <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/australian-curriculum/resources/review-australian-curriculum-final-report-2014">reviewers</a> argued for greater emphasis on Western literature and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-29/donnelly-the-bible-deserves-a-place-in-the-national-curriculum/3750156">Judeo-Christian heritage</a>. The revised curriculum <a href="https://www.australiancurriculum.edu.au/about-the-australian-curriculum/">(version 8.0)</a> was released in 2015 and has been in place until recently. </p>
<h2>The American connection</h2>
<p>Australia’s curriculum wars can also be <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/06/02/peter-dutton-education-culture-wars/">linked</a> to education debates in the United States.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-race-theory-what-it-is-and-what-it-isnt-162752">critical race theory</a> has become a key battleground for conservative culture wars against public schooling, teacher autonomy and curriculum. These debates are designed to create moral panic for parents, who worry that they send their kids to school to learn the facts, but are instead indoctrinated by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504630.2020.1787822">cultural Marxists</a> dressed as teachers.</p>
<p>The rise of <a href="https://www.educationnext.org/homeschooling-skyrocketed-during-pandemic-what-does-future-hold-online-neighborhood-pods-cooperatives/">homeschooling</a> and school choice in <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-choice-policies-are-associated-with-increased-separation-of-students-by-social-class-149902">Australia</a> and the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/01/how-school-choice-became-an-explosive-issue/251897/">US</a> are driven in large part by concerns about curriculum.</p>
<h2>Who gets to choose the curriculum in Australia?</h2>
<p>It is important for parents to know that the curriculum – what gets taught in our schools – is not developed by unions nor activists.</p>
<p>While teachers have a say in how their lessons are taught, the curriculum is developed and monitored by state and territory education authorities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-has-voted-to-reject-critical-race-theory-from-the-national-curriculum-what-is-it-and-why-does-it-matter-163102">The Senate has voted to reject critical race theory from the national curriculum. What is it, and why does it matter?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Following their 2007 election, Labor promised an “<a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/gillard/education-revolution-our-schools">education revolution</a>”. This was the start of greater involvement by the federal government in curriculum development and assessment.</p>
<p>The newly created Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority released the first version of the Australian curriculum in 2010. This is the body that is also responsible for implementing the MySchool website and the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) tests.</p>
<p>Government schools are required to follow state and territory mandated curriculum guidelines, while Catholic, independent and other non-government schools have more <a href="https://www.australiancurriculum.edu.au/f-10-curriculum/implementation-of-the-australian-curriculum/">curriculum flexibility</a>. This includes offering alternative curriculum options such as Steiner, Montessori or International Baccalaureate programs.</p>
<h2>The latest curriculum</h2>
<p>The latest review of the curriculum (version 9.0) was undertaken with the aim to “<a href="https://www.acara.edu.au/docs/default-source/curriculum/ac-review_terms-of-reference_website.pdf">refine, realign and declutter</a>” the curriculum content within its existing structure.</p>
<p>There was an extensive <a href="https://www.acara.edu.au/docs/default-source/media-releases/endorsement-ac-media-release-2022.pdf">consultation period</a> during 2020–2021, with more than 6,000 surveys, 900 emails and 360 teachers and curriculum specialists involved in the review.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Liberal leader Peter Dutton speaking to former Prime Minister John Howard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475329/original/file-20220721-13-j99nee.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Prime Minister John Howard pictured with new Liberal leader Peter Dutton at a June 2022 book launch.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even so, acting education minister Stuart Robert wrote to the chair of the Australian curriculum authority in February <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/09/pushing-bullshit-leaked-docs-reveal-duttons-education-farce">requesting extra changes</a> to portray a “more balanced view of Australian history”. He specifically wanted to ensure</p>
<blockquote>
<p>that key aspects of Australian history, namely 1750–1914 and Australia’s post World War II migrant history, are appropriately prioritised.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following this, 55% of <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/07/09/pushing-bullshit-leaked-docs-reveal-duttons-education-farce">history curriculum content</a> between Years 7 and 10 was removed.</p>
<p><a href="https://v9.australiancurriculum.edu.au/">Version 9.0</a> of the Australian Curriculum was then endorsed by federal and state education ministers in April, shortly before the federal election was called.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>New education minister Jason Clare has been quick to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-interested-in-picking-fights-new-education-minister-says-curriculum-wars-have-been-settled-20220603-p5aqtb.html">dismiss</a> Dutton’s attempts to fire up the curriculum wars, telling The Sydney Morning Herald, “I’m not interested in picking fights”.</p>
<p>So, as the updated curriculum begins to roll out across Australian schools from 2023, it will be interesting to see how much momentum Dutton generates.</p>
<p>Granted, a proposed move to <a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/robert/education-ministers-agree-new-australian-curriculum">continuous curriculum updates</a> instead of every five or six years will potentially make it easier to politically interfere with the curriculum.</p>
<p>But it is important to remember that education authorities determine the curriculum – not unions, not activists and ideally not the minister of the day.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-only-one-front-in-the-history-curriculum-wars-30888">Australia is only one front in the history curriculum wars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187021/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Riddle has received funding from the Australian Research Council (LP210100098 Constructing a Rich Curriculum for All: ‘Insights into Practice’). </span></em></p>The new Liberal leader says education is a top priority and ‘activists’ are driving ‘non-core’ subjects in schools.Stewart Riddle, Associate Professor, School of Education, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1871552022-07-18T05:39:26Z2022-07-18T05:39:26ZThere’s a smart way to push Labor harder on emissions cuts – without reigniting the climate wars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474502/original/file-20220718-12-lyp7xn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1042%2C677%2C4348%2C3952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Gourley/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The fate of Labor’s 2030 climate policy hangs in the balance as the Greens and other climate-conscious crossbenchers this week <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/14/chris-bowen-shares-draft-climate-bill-as-independents-and-greens-turn-up-heat-for-more-ambitious-action">consider</a> pushing the government harder on emissions reduction. </p>
<p>But trying to force Labor to go beyond its election commitment is a high-risk strategy that threatens to ignite a new round of Australia’s climate wars. The key question on the minds of progressive MPs and senators should be: how do we get the best climate outcome from this government’s term in office? </p>
<p>Labor has pledged to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, based on 2005 levels. But there’s been very little media or political discussion of what Australia should be aiming for in 2035. This is baffling.</p>
<p>Pressuring Labor to adopt a higher 2035 target could have the same effect as increasing the 2030 target, without engaging in the frustrating wedge politics that has bedevilled climate action in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal plant with steam coming from stacks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474521/original/file-20220718-4540-38pqb0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor has pledged to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Avoiding another decade of disappointment</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/teal-independents-who-are-they-how-did-they-upend-australia-election">teal independents</a>, Greens and other crossbenchers are this week examining a draft of the climate legislation Labor will introduce when parliament resumes.</p>
<p>The Coalition looks set to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/17/greens-open-to-backing-labors-43-emissions-target-but-demand-ban-on-new-coal-projects">oppose</a> the climate bill. So Labor needs the Greens and another independent, probably the progressive senator David Pocock, to ease the policy through the Senate.</p>
<p>The Greens have <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-in-2022-is-no-longer-a-political-bin-fire-but-it-remains-a-smouldering-issue-for-voters-181058">called for</a> emissions reductions of 75% by 2030 and many teal candidates want at least a 60% cut. In recent days, Greens leader Adam Bandt declared the Greens would push Labor to improve the bill, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaked-climate-change-bill-enshrines-43-per-cent-emissions-cut-20220714-p5b1km.html">saying it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>allows future climate-wrecking governments to announce lower targets, doesn’t seem to require the government to actually do anything to cut pollution and allows more coal and gas projects, which will put even this weak target out of reach.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But Bowen says Labor “will not be walking away” from the 43% pledge it took to the election. High in Bowen’s mind, no doubt, is the Gillard Labor government’s experience in minority government in 2010. </p>
<p>As part of negotiations with the Greens to form government, Labor agreed to introduce a <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-should-adopt-a-collaborative-european-approach-to-governing-not-the-take-it-or-leave-it-anglo-style-were-used-to-183721">carbon price</a> – a move some interpreted as a broken election promise. </p>
<p>The Abbott Coalition relentlessly pursued Labor over the policy all the way to the 2013 election, when it knocked Labor out of office.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-in-2022-is-no-longer-a-political-bin-fire-but-it-remains-a-smouldering-issue-for-voters-181058">Climate policy in 2022 is no longer a political bin-fire – but it remains a smouldering issue for voters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and three women in high vis smiling" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474524/original/file-20220718-22-yoh48q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tony Abbott, second from right, led a relentless Opposition attack on Labor over the carbon price.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ellen Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now back in power, Labor wants only to deliver on its climate pledge, and no more. The party must also appease its traditional voter base in coal-reliant seats in New South Wales and Queensland.</p>
<p>Similarly, the Greens were painted as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-blames-greens-for-a-decade-of-inaction-on-climate-policy-20220712-p5b10e.html">wreckers</a> on climate action after the party blocked the Rudd government’s proposed carbon pollution reduction scheme in 2009, saying it lacked ambition. </p>
<p>The Greens are presumably keen to avoid the label again. But they also have to deliver for their voters, as do the teals. </p>
<p>The Greens <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/17/greens-open-to-backing-labors-43-emissions-target-but-demand-ban-on-new-coal-projects">say</a> they’re willing to negotiate with Labor over the bill, although the Greens’ call for a ban on new coal projects is a likely sticking point.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/radio-interview-abc-radio-national-breakfast">says</a> the 43% emission target is “a floor, not a ceiling”.
Pocock has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/floor-not-a-ceiling-pocock-backs-43-per-cent-2030-emissions-reduction-target-20220703-p5ayn3.html">indicated</a> he may support Labor’s proposal if that’s the case. </p>
<p>Adding the words “at least” to the figure of 43%, which is currently missing, would ensure the target was indeed a floor, not a ceiling. It would also mean any government of the day would not have to return to parliament to increase the target at a later date.</p>
<p>After this should come a second step. The Greens and teals should demand that the legislation includes a strong interim target: at least 60% emissions reduction by 2035.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman's face on election poster with person in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474520/original/file-20220718-18-gk6vez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Greens and teals should demand at least 60% emissions reduction by 2035.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Baker/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Filling the policy gap</h2>
<p>Australia is scheduled to reach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/03/anthony-albanese-commits-labor-to-emissions-reduction-target-of-43-by-2030">net-zero</a> carbon emissions by 2050. But as it stands, Labor’s bill provides very little indication of the path to get there.</p>
<p>This leaves a policy gap the progressives should seek to fill. Australia needs an ambitious target for 2030, but we shouldn’t fixate on this date alone. </p>
<p>Interim emissions reduction targets are key to nations meeting their obligations under the Paris Agreement – and Australia needs such targets at regular intervals between now and 2050 to ensure long term and sustainable climate action. </p>
<p>One of Europe’s most progressive pieces of climate legislation, in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2021.1922186">Denmark</a>, requires interim targets be set every five years, a decade in advance, to drive change.</p>
<p>Similarly in Australia at the state level, Victoria has a legislated requirement to set new interim targets every five years and has asked an <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/expert-panel-advise-2035-emissions-reduction-target">expert panel</a> to advise on an interim 2035 goal.</p>
<p>Think tanks in Australia have also been active on the target. Both the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/labors-2030-emissions-targets-must-aim-higher">Climate Council</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-could-get-to-net-zero-emissions-much-quicker-than-2050-if-our-politics-was-a-force-for-change-heres-how-176806">Climateworks Centre</a> have called on Australia to achieve net-zero by 2035.</p>
<p>And last year, a <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/australias-paris-agreement-pathways">report</a> by the expert Climate Targets Panel found Australia should reduce emissions by 67% by 2035, to do its fair share of limiting global warming below 2°C.</p>
<p>However, 2035 targets have been largely absent from national political discussion. The <a href="https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/greens-launch-full-climate-and-energy-plan-powering-past-coal-and-gas-0">Greens</a> want Australia to reach net-zero in that timeframe, but haven’t advertised it widely.</p>
<p>A strong 2035 emissions target would enable Labor to deliver on its election promise. The teals and Greens could also argue they’d significantly improved Labor’s climate policy.</p>
<p>And the target would shift the dial on political discourse over emissions reduction. In turn, corporate strategies, state government plans and investment momentum would shift to reflect the new ambition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="wind farm on grass with blue sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474525/original/file-20220718-22-ws6dv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The target would would shift the dial on political discourse over emissions reduction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied - Granville Harbour Wind Farm</span></span>
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<h2>Seizing the moment</h2>
<p>With a new Labor government, the crossbench must use this pivotal moment to shift the goalposts towards stronger climate action.</p>
<p>The teals and the Greens should accept Labor’s proposed 43% emission reduction target for 2030, while ensuring that the legislation includes a target of at least 60% in 2035.</p>
<p>The next political fight will be how Australia reaches the new target – and how fast we move away from coal and gas. </p>
<p>But as the new Labor government finds its feet, it’s crucial the crossbench seizes this opportunity to enshrine more ambitious emissions targets in law, to address the threats of a warming planet. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pacific-islands-are-back-on-the-map-and-climate-action-is-not-negotiable-for-would-be-allies-187086">Pacific Islands are back on the map, and climate action is not negotiable for would-be allies</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s been very little media or political discussion of what Australia should be aiming for in 2035. This is baffling.Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695452021-10-15T01:06:01Z2021-10-15T01:06:01ZClimate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief<p>Time is rapidly running out for the Morrison government to announce a new climate policy before the United Nations COP26 climate talks in Glasgow next month. At the 11th hour, the government appears poised to announce a net-zero emissions target for 2050 and, possibly, stronger ambition to 2030.</p>
<p>Infamously, Australia has to date failed to sustain a meaningful climate policy regime. As <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.725?af=R">my latest research</a> has shown, inaction by the federal government has been a particularly effective handbrake on progress. So any new climate targets, and a robust plan to meet them, would be welcome.</p>
<p>The challenge now for the Morrison government is to consign Australia’s fractious climate politics divide to history. The mistakes of the past must be avoided. A new approach is needed, one that delivers on net-zero, with a 2030 target that signals Australia’s intent to join the world in taking climate change seriously.</p>
<p>There is much to learn from analysis of Australia’s poor record, in particular from the divisive “climate wars” which plagued federal politics over the last decade. But Australia’s policy recalcitrance stretches way back, at least 30 years. </p>
<p>To help us understand what’s at stake for Australia at Glasgow and beyond, here’s a quick refresher. </p>
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<h2>Cast your mind back 30 years</h2>
<p>In her <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p303951/pdf/book.pdf">detailed history</a> of climate awareness in Australia, academic and journalist Maria Taylor found, through document and interview-based analysis, that as far back as the late 1980s, the Australian public was the best informed on the planet of the urgent need to act on global warming.</p>
<p>She recalls the Hawke Labor government set a target of reducing emissions 20% below 1988 levels by 2005. However, the impetus was lost under the Keating Labor government as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/17/remembering-the-recession-the-1990s-experience-changed-my-view-of-the-world">economic recession hit</a>, and concerns about the cost of climate action grew – in particular from the resources industry.</p>
<p>The late 1990s, under the Howard Coalition government, were also lost to inaction. At the 1997 Kyoto climate negotiations, <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F5B676%22;src1=sm1">Australia demanded</a> a target that <a href="https://mitpress.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.7551/mitpress/9780262014267.001.0001/upso-9780262014267-chapter-7">allowed</a> emissions in 2012 to be 8% more than they were in 1990, while developed nations, other than Norway and Iceland, agreed to cut theirs. Australia threatened to <a href="https://theconversation.com/today-australias-kyoto-climate-targets-end-and-our-paris-cop-out-begins-thats-nothing-to-be-proud-of-mr-taylor-131137">walk away</a> from the negotiations if that was not agreed to.</p>
<p>Despite Australia’s demands being met, the Howard government then failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/howard-defiant-on-kyoto-rejection-20020905-gduk81.html">the only</a> developed nation other than the United States to do so. </p>
<p>It did introduce a renewable energy target and propose a carbon tax, prior to losing the 2007 election, as an Australian public gripped by drought sought stronger action on climate change. </p>
<p>The Rudd Labor government <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12021">ratified</a> the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. It also attempted to set a carbon price, in the form of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). But the bill <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-08-13/wong-defiant-as-senate-rejects-carbon-trade-laws/1389416">failed</a> to pass Parliament after the Coalition and the Greens blocked it in the Senate.</p>
<p>In 2011, the Gillard Labor minority government passed the <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22media/pressrel/915157%22">Clean Energy Act</a> negotiated with her crossbench supporters. This established a carbon pricing mechanism, which critics wrongly <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/carbon-tax-just-brutal-politics-credlin">branded</a> a “carbon tax”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/25-years-ago-the-australian-government-promised-deep-emissions-cuts-and-yet-here-we-still-are-46805">25 years ago the Australian government promised deep emissions cuts, and yet here we still are</a>
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<h2>The Abbott years</h2>
<p>The Coalition opposition, led by Tony Abbott, was circling. Ever the <a href="https://theconversation.com/malcolm-turnbull-and-his-emissions-trading-scheme-shadow-48198">climate policy pugilist</a>, Abbott pledged to “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/news-story/will-abbott-axe-the-tax/eccabf3032531411299c7811c6b01e37">axe the tax</a>” and repeal other climate policy advances. At the 2013 federal election, he rode those promises into office.</p>
<p>The Abbott government was the first in the world to <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25919-australia-will-pay-dearly-for-repealing-its-carbon-tax/">repeal a carbon price</a>. Gone also were <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.458">other advances</a>, such as the expert Climate Commission, support for wind and solar power, and policies to promote energy efficiency. </p>
<p>The new government’s dismantling closed Australia’s window of opportunity to act on climate change. But the world was moving on. By 2015 international leaders were <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/paris-2015-tony-abbott-viewed-by-french-as-reluctant-actor-on-climate-change-20150609-ghjftr.html">calling for</a> an end to coal and for steep policy action under the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Abbott was deposed as prime minister in 2015 after two years in office. But his dismantling efforts dramatically slowed the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, which was <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780230341975/thethirdindustrialrevolution">progressing apace</a> in other advanced industrial economies.</p>
<p>Abbott’s successor, Malcolm Turnbull, understood this. But his efforts to move on climate change were thwarted by internal party politics and dissent, and in 2018 he too was <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/turnbull-says-his-biggest-leadership-failure-was-on-climate-change-83289/">deposed</a>.</p>
<h2>It’s up to Scott Morrison</h2>
<p>Given this tumultuous history, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been cautious <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/05/scott-morrison-contradicts-energy-advice-saying-paris-targets-can-be-met-at-a-canter">not to signal</a> abrupt climate policy change. But now, with the international summit just weeks away, he is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-net-zero-bandwagon-is-gathering-steam-and-resistant-mps-are-about-to-be-run-over-169632">staring down the Coalition’s naysayers</a> in the National Party to pledge a target of net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>The political conversation on climate change is finally changing. Even the conservative federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg <a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenberg-prepares-ground-for-scott-morrison-to-commit-to-2050-climate-target-168610">recently articulated</a> the economic costs of not making the low-emissions transition.</p>
<p>But 30 years of inaction has left Australia lagging without a long-term target or an effective 2030 target to guide interim action, including a phase-out of coal. So Australia risks being <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/scalingupaustralia/">left behind</a>, missing out on the jobs and growth from a low-carbon transition. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-the-fate-of-earth-and-australias-prosperity-depend-on-it-169648">What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia's prosperity, depend on it?</a>
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<p>To see bone fide change in Australia’s climate response, the government must not repeat the mistakes of the past: politicising climate change, delaying the clean energy transition, persisting with ineffective policies, and offsetting rather than reducing emissions. </p>
<p>Instead, it should set partisanship aside and develop enduring economic and energy transition plans for affected communities, such as those vulnerable to drought, low-lying coastal communities, and coal workers set to lose their jobs. These plans mustn’t be reversed for political gain, as we’ve seen in the past. </p>
<p>Jurisdictions such as the European Union are planning or considering trade sanctions such as <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/we-wont-be-uncle-sucker-us-to-join-eu-with-carbon-tax-on-imports/">carbon border adjustments</a> on nations that don’t reduce emissions. And <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-coal-rba-idUSKBN2GC0SX">stranded fossil fuel investments</a> are inevitable as the market shifts towards renewables. Clearly, inaction on climate change <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/deadly-costs-climate-inaction">will cost Australia</a> dearly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-costs-169939">Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Click through a timeline to make sense of Australia’s long, tumultuous years of shifting climate policies ahead of next month’s international climate summit in Glasgow.Kate Crowley, Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695432021-10-08T05:26:31Z2021-10-08T05:26:31ZTony Abbott warns China could ‘lash out’ at Taiwan soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425406/original/file-20211008-23-1w34c2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C4%2C2886%2C1828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former prime minister Tony Abbott has warned China could “lash out disastrously” at Taiwan very soon.</p>
<p>In a speech in Taipei, Abbott condemned China’s growing belligerence towards Taiwan and said Australia should not be indifferent to its fate.
Abbott – who as prime minister concluded the free trade agreement with China – recalled the warmer relations between China and Australia in those days.</p>
<p>“Much has changed in just six years, but it’s not Australia’s goodwill towards the people of China, about a million of whom are now Australians and making a fine contribution to our country,” he said.</p>
<p>Australia had no issue with China, Abbott said. “We welcome trade, investment and visits – just not further hectoring about being the chewing gum on China’s boot.”</p>
<p>He said if the “drums of war” could be heard in the region – as home affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/get-ready-to-fight-for-our-liberty-home-affairs-secretary-michael-pezzullo/news-story/87239deac0153147989ac508d6447046">put it</a> in April – “it’s not Australia that’s beating them.</p>
<p>"The only drums we beat are for justice and freedom – freedom for all people, in China and in Taiwan, to make their own decisions about their lives and their futures,” Abbott said.</p>
<p>“But that’s not how China sees it, as its growing belligerence to Taiwan shows. Sensing that its relative power might have peaked, with its population ageing, its economy slowing, and its finances creaking, it’s quite possible that Beijing could lash out disastrously very soon.”</p>
<p>Abbott said that “our challenge is to try and ensure that the unthinkable remains unlikely and that the possible doesn’t become the probable.”</p>
<p>“That’s why Taiwan’s friends are so important now: to stress that Taiwan’s future should be decided by its own people and to let Beijing know that any attempt at coercion would have incalculable consequences.”</p>
<p>Abbott’s visit comes at a time of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-taiwan-remains-calm-in-the-face-of-unprecedented-military-pressure-from-china-169160">high tension</a> between China and Taiwan, with China repeatedly sending large numbers of military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone.</p>
<p>Taiwan’s defence minister claimed this week military tensions between China and Taiwan were at their worst in more than 40 years. </p>
<p>Asked earlier this week about the visit, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-07/tony-abbott-taiwan-visit-morrison-government-china/100522288">Prime Minister Scott Morrison said</a> it was a private trip and Abbott was not passing on any government messages.</p>
<p>“Tony is in Taiwan as a private citizen, and I didn’t have any conversation with him before that.”</p>
<p>But Abbott has been given VIP treatment during his visit and accorded high-level government meetings.</p>
<p>Australia has a “<a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/does-australia-have-a-one-china-two-chinas-or-one-china-one-taiwan-policy-or-all-three/">one China</a>” policy diplomatically but there are close economic relations between Australia and Taiwan, including trade and investment and, before the pandemic, tourism.</p>
<p>In his speech, Abbott said China had created the new <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit-167988">Quadrilateral Security Dialogue</a> (between the United States, Australia, Japan and India), “because it’s been so unreasonable”.</p>
<p>“And the more aggressive it becomes, the more opponents it will have,” Abbott said. </p>
<p>The US State Department had just affirmed America’s commitment to Taiwan was “rock solid”, he said.</p>
<p>“I don’t think America could stand by and watch Taiwan swallowed up. I don’t think Australia should be indifferent to the fate of a fellow democracy of almost 25 million people.”</p>
<p>Abbott observed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, had put it well when <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/blinken-calls-china-competition-a-key-challenge-for-the-u-s">he said</a> America would be competitive with China when it should be, collaborative when it could be, and adversarial when it must be.</p>
<p>“Provided it’s real, collaboration is still possible and trust could yet be rebuilt. But Taiwan will be the test,” Abbott said.</p>
<p>He said Taiwan should be welcomed into the Trans-Pacific Partnership.</p>
<p>But China, which is seeking to join the trade pact, “could never be admitted to the TPP while engaged in a trade war with Australia, and in predatory trade all-round”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169543/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In a speech in Taipei, the former prime minister condemned China’s growing belligerence.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1651692021-08-05T20:09:53Z2021-08-05T20:09:53ZA ‘Christian nation’ no longer: why Australia’s religious right loses policy battles even when it wins elections<p>Conservative Christians are prominent in Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition parties. Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott are two of the most <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/27/scott-morrison-is-a-pentecostal-but-he-doesnt-need-believers-like-trump-does">devout</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-be-clear-on-tony-abbotts-attacks-on-abortion-10263">theologically conservative</a> prime ministers in Australian history.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/06/26/how-the-religious-right-trying-take-over-the-liberal-party/162462960011952">State</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/christian-soldiers-and-climate-deniers-inside-the-fight-for-control-of-the-queensland-lnp">Coalition parties</a> <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/liberal-survivor-puts-spotlight-on-right-wing-churches-20210315-p57au7">have had</a> <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/conservative-christian-plot-to-take-control-of-nsw-liberal-party-20190807-p52evl.html">influxes</a> of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-religious-minority-seizing-power-in-the-liberal-party-20180601-p4ziyq.html">religious conservatives</a> as the Coalition <a href="https://www.eternitynews.com.au/australia/can-christian-political-parties-survive/">absorbs</a> Christian parties and their voters. At the same time, the Christian right is suffering major defeats on its biggest issues. </p>
<p>Since 2018, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/abortion-has-been-decriminalised-in-queensland/cc85e428-90a1-42f2-9156-87f0249c00f7">Queensland</a>, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/abortion-has-been-decriminalised-in-nsw-and-here-s-what-will-actually-change/fa9150ff-295f-432e-9361-4dad576f3d0a">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/historic-day-for-women-as-abortion-officially-decriminalised-in-south-australia">South Australia</a> have all liberalised their abortion laws. This happened under Coalition governments in NSW and SA, to the dismay of some conservatives. Abbott and Barnaby Joyce <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-15/tony-abbott-tells-rally-abortion-laws-are-effecively-infanticide/11514890">appeared at protests</a> against the NSW laws. Morrison <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-a-conservative-on-abortion/6767a1b4-a32d-4822-b9e4-4cc71afa5aea">declined to get involved</a>, despite his “conservative” views on abortion.</p>
<p>In the 2017 postal survey on marriage equality, only <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/November/Australian_Marriage_Law_Postal_Survey_map">five of the Coalition’s 76 federal seats</a> saw majorities vote “no”. The law subsequently passed <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-08/same-sex-marriage-who-didnt-vote/9240584">with the support of most Coalition MPs</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09637494.2021.1946344">new article</a> in Religion, State and Society, I examine why Australian Christian conservatives are losing policy battles even when they win elections. Compared to the <a href="https://www.christianitytoday.com/scot-mcknight/2020/august/lets-talk-about-christian-nationalism.html">United States</a>, Australia does not have a strong link between Christianity and nationalism. I show that, if anything, the concept of Australia as a “Christian nation” has declined over the past decade. This makes it harder for religious traditionalism to piggyback on the electoral success of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/17/australians-are-asking-how-did-we-get-here-well-islamophobia-is-practically-enshrined-as-public-policy?CMP=share_btn_tw&fbclid=IwAR2GXTs83zEY3EX0LLQhNPzpYGSc7vv3XRMXaiIWGnw9VEjatJSbOGCRfvw">exclusionary nationalism</a>.</p>
<h2>The rise and fall of the Christian right</h2>
<p>Religious adherence is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EReligion%20Data%20Summary%7E70">declining</a> in Australia, but this doesn’t necessarily mean the end of religious influence in politics. </p>
<p>In her book <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691164755/nations-under-god">Nations Under God</a>, Anna Grzymala-Busse shows religious groups can continue to shape policy even in countries where people are averse to their involvement in politics. They can do this when they are seen as being “above politics”. Religious figures are powerful when they appear to be giving non-partisan guidance to political figures, legitimised by a strong relationship between church and nation.</p>
<p>Australia’s history has not created the kind of fusion between Christianity and nationalism that we see in places like Poland or the United States. But during the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361140601158526">prime ministership of John Howard</a>, politicians <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361140902862784">increasingly blended Christianity</a> into a <a href="https://www.monash.edu/arts/philosophical-historical-international-studies/eras/past-editions/edition-seven-2005-november/god-under-howard-the-rise-of-the-religious-right-in-australian-politics-by-marion-maddox">conservative vision of the Australian nation</a>. This in turn created a favourable environment for religious influence.</p>
<p>In a 2014 article, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/1462317X13Z.00000000071">Marion Maddox</a> described the success of the Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) in Canberra. Howard brought the ACL to prominence by treating it as a “legitimate peak body” for Christianity. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414459/original/file-20210804-24-y7bh9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite having a devoutly Christian prime minister, the role of the Christian right in Australia has waned in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The ACL’s political access continued under Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/religion/it-seems-the-real-julia-cant-ignore-the-christian-lobby/10102190">Julia Gillard</a>.
At a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-08-10/howard-rudd-woo-christians-online/636110">2007 ACL conference</a>, Rudd and Howard both spoke, with Rudd describing how his Christian beliefs gave him a unifying vision for the nation. </p>
<p>Gillard, raised Baptist but a self-described atheist, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/review-missed-opportunity-to-separate-church-and-state-20130117-2cuoc.html">held private meetings</a> on anti-discrimination laws with ACL leader Jim Wallace. In a 2011 interview, Gillard <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-03-22/social_conservative_julia3a_which_is_the_real_one_now3f/45392">described herself</a> as a “cultural traditionalist” who believed it was important for people to understand the Bible because “the Bible has formed such an important part of our culture”. As prime minister, Gillard <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-21/rudd27s-gay-marriage-decison-puts-him-at-odds-with-gillard/4702928">opposed</a> same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>Maddox warned that Australians had failed to recognise the “extremist” right-wing nature of the ACL. It successfully presented itself as “middle of the road” politically, theologically and culturally. In reality, it represented a small, ultraconservative slice of mostly neo-Pentecostal Christianity.</p>
<p>Even at the peak of the Christian right’s power, political scientists noted its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2013/s3765154.htm">electoral</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361146.2011.595387">policy</a> <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361140903296545">limitations</a>. Abbott’s 2013 election victory didn’t help it. His ascendancy hardened “<a href="https://ipa.org.au/ipa-review-articles/tony-abbotts-culture-challenge">culture war</a>” divisions, limiting the influence of Christian conservatives to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-christian-lobby-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-religious-right-60624">the Coalition side of politics</a>. Labor <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6076831/bill-shorten-tells-christian-lobby-he-supports-same-sex-marriage/">stopped courting</a> conservative Christian votes, despite having <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/15/dastyari-high-number-of-no-votes-in-labor-seats-shows-huge-disconnect">conservative Christian voters</a>. </p>
<p>The Coalition could form electoral majorities, but was itself <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f793f132-96f8-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0">divided</a> on the big “<a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/Sheppard-Moral-politics-2016-AQSPS.pdf">moral</a>” issues where conservatives are in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/same-sex-marriage-results-crush-the-idea-that-australian-voters-crave-conservatism-87316">minority</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/same-sex-marriage-results-crush-the-idea-that-australian-voters-crave-conservatism-87316">Same-sex marriage results crush the idea that Australian voters crave conservatism</a>
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<h2>From ‘Christian nation’ to ‘religious freedom’</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/australians-are-very-skeptical-michael-kirby-warns-against-excessive-protection-of-religious-freedoms">Critics of religious influence</a> see ominous signs in the Morrison government’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/right-wing-backlash-church-group-to-make-religious-freedom-an-election-issue-20210602-p57xce.html">push</a> for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-31/religious-freedom-draft-bill-may-prove-morrisons-toughest-test/11466242">religious freedom bill</a>. They warn such legislation will carve out spaces for <a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-religious-discrimination-bill-enshrines-the-right-to-harm-others-in-the-name-of-faith-131206">religious groups to discriminate</a>. But the shift to a religious freedom agenda also marks a retreat of religious power in Australian life.</p>
<p>As Carol Johnson and Marion Maddox <a href="https://theconversation.com/talk-of-same-sex-marriage-impinging-on-religious-freedom-is-misconceived-heres-why-82435">point out</a>, Australia’s biggest churches used to oppose efforts to expand religious freedom. They did so from a position of majority dominance, worried that efforts to protect minorities could lead to stricter separation of church and state. </p>
<p>In 2008, the Human Rights Commission conducted the Freedom of Religion and Belief in Australia Inquiry. An <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1839-4655.2012.tb00250.x">analysis</a> found 40% of public submissions included the “assertion that Australia is a Christian nation”. That assertion is much rarer today.</p>
<p>Even large churches are now conscious of being in a national minority on issues like marriage and sexuality. In 2017 the Turnbull government announced a <a href="https://pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/religious-freedom-review">Religious Freedom Review</a> in response to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-13/religious-freedom-debate-does-little-to-help-malcolm-turnbulll/9989314">conservative worries</a> about the <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/marriage/pages/1839/attachments/original/1505496213/Consequences-_Changing_the_Law_on_Marriage_Affects_Everyone.pdf?1505496213">implications of changing marriage laws</a>. In my analysis of the 15,500 <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/religious-freedom-review/review-submissions">public submissions</a> to the review, I found just four assertions that Australia is a Christian nation or country.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414457/original/file-20210804-22-1lowfoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former prime minister Tony Abbott has referred to Australian society as ‘relentlessly secular’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joel Carrett/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The term “Christian nation” was used 101 unique times across print media (in reference to Australia) from the beginning of 2016 to the end of 2020. It appears to be in decline as a term. It appeared 35 times in 2016, 34 times in 2017 (the year of the same-sex marriage referendum), 16 times in 2018, 7 times in 2019 and 8 times in 2020. Furthermore, nearly half the times it was mentioned, it was by someone refuting the claim that Australia is a Christian nation.</p>
<p>When Australians do refer to their country as “Christian”, they are usually talking about heritage, rituals, holidays and census numbers. These may involve <a href="http://pcs.mcmasterdivinity.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/4.PCS_.25-74-Goroncy.pdf">implied racial boundaries</a>. </p>
<p>But Australians generally lack the classic ingredients of true religious nationalism: a sense of being “<a href="https://networks.h-net.org/node/10670/reviews/11100/hexham-smith-chosen-peoples-sacred-sources-national-identity">chosen</a>” by God or of a <a href="https://tif.ssrc.org/2010/01/08/a-neo-weberian-theory-of-american-civil-religion/">sacred covenant</a> between God and the nation. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-religion-rises-and-falls-in-modern-australia-74367">How religion rises – and falls – in modern Australia</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Many of Australia’s devoutly Christian politicians <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/left-behind-progressive-australians-reluctance-to-talk-religion-20170616-gwsmv6.html">don’t like</a> calling Australia a Christian nation. Indeed, Abbott once described Australia as “<a href="https://www.cathnews.com/archives/cath-news-archive/11098-pope-to-be-seen-but-not-heard-abbott">relentlessly secular</a>”. I can find no record of Morrison publicly calling Australia a Christian nation or country. The last prime minister to do so was Malcolm Turnbull, who <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/welcome-mr-netanyahu-the-first-israeli-pm-to-visit-australia/news-story/047d61e185967150349c6f93cc1831eb">described</a> Australia as a “majority Christian nation” sharing a biblical heritage with Israel. </p>
<p>The debate around religious freedom reflects a new concept of religious traditionalists as minorities requiring protection. It also reframes religious alliances in terms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-conservatism-among-ethnic-communities-drove-a-strong-no-vote-in-western-sydney-87509">multiculturalism</a> and <a href="https://freedomforfaith.org.au/articles/ruddock-review-submission-protecting-diversity/">diversity</a>. </p>
<p>Conservative religious actors will fight to protect their existing <a href="https://www.alrc.gov.au/inquiry/review-into-the-framework-of-religious-exemptions-in-anti-discrimination-legislation/">privileges</a> and will try to carve out <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-want-folau-s-law-removed-from-religious-discrimination-bill-20210722-p58c25.html">new ones</a>. But they are no longer in a position to bring Australian society into line with their beliefs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Those on the Christian right in Australia once wielded considerable clout, but they are no longer in a position to bring the majority of Australians in line with their views.David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1504442020-11-19T18:53:33Z2020-11-19T18:53:33ZAfter Biden’s win, Australia needs to step up and recommit to this vital UN climate change fund<p>Now Joe Biden is on track to be the next US president, there has been plenty of <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">speculation</a> about what this means for Australia’s policies on climate change. </p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">promises</a> to achieve a 100% clean energy economy and reach net-zero emissions in the US no later than 2050. This puts Australia — which is <a href="https://www.climate-transparency.org">ranked among the worst</a> of the G20 members on climate policies — under pressure to revisit its <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/">paltry greenhouse gas emissions targets for 2030</a> and to commit to reaching net-zero by 2050 as well.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-us-will-rejoin-the-paris-climate-agreement-in-77-days-then-australia-will-really-feel-the-heat-149533">Biden says the US will rejoin the Paris climate agreement in 77 days. Then Australia will really feel the heat</a>
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<p>But emissions targets are only part of the story. Another important area where the US election could make a difference involves climate finance: when rich countries like Australia channel money to help low-income countries deal with climate change and cut their emissions. </p>
<p>Biden’s win could be the perfect opportunity for Australia to save face and rejoin the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/">UN Green Climate Fund</a>, the main multilateral vehicle for deploying climate finance. </p>
<h2>Australia’s initial commitment to the Green Climate Fund</h2>
<p>Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries, including Australia, have <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/climate-finance-roadmap-to-us100-billion.pdf">committed</a> to mobilise US$100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020. </p>
<p>Of this, US$20 billion has been formally pledged to the <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/about/resource-mobilisation">UN Green Climate Fund</a>. The rest of what countries have committed so far is spread across a <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/climate-finance/resources/biennial-assessment-of-climate-finance">range</a> of bilateral partnerships (typically through aid programs), other multilateral channels such as the World Bank, and private investment. </p>
<p>In 2014 Obama <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-obama-idUSKCN0IY1LD20141115">committed</a> US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, but only transferred the first US$1 billion before President Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord/">cancelled</a> the remainder in 2017. Biden has <a href="https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">pledged</a> to fulfil Obama’s original commitment.</p>
<p>Australia, under the Abbott government, eventually decided to support the fund, initially contributing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/10/green-climate-fund-200m-australia-tony-abbott-about-turn">A$200 million</a> in 2014 and co-chairing its board for much of its early stages. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Then Foreign Minister Julie Bishop meets with Vice-President Joe Biden at the White House." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370244/original/file-20201119-21-1mltp8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Abbott government joined the fund in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/photo/1674">The Office of the Minister for Foreign Affairs</a></span>
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<p>When the fund called for new commitments in 2018, Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/10/08/australia-wont-give-money-green-climate-fund-says-pm/">announced</a> over talkback radio that Australia would not “tip money into that big climate fund”. Australia lost its board seat at the end of 2019. </p>
<p>Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/poor-nations-castigate-australia-for-abandoning-global-climate-fund-20181023-p50beh.html">elaborated</a> at the time: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>it is our assessment that there are significant challenges with [the fund’s] governance and operational model which are impacting its effectiveness.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Australia steps back</h2>
<p>Australia stood by — and even <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/aid/statistical-summary-time-series-data/Pages/australias-official-development-assistance-statistical-summary-2018-19">exceeded</a> — its overall pledge to provide A$1 billion in climate finance over five years to 2020, but it <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/climate-change-action-strategy.pdf">opted</a> to provide this assistance through other channels, mainly bilateral partnerships with governments in neighbouring countries, including <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/pacific/development-assistance/resilience-pacific-regional">A$300 million</a> for the Pacific.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pacific-island-nations-will-no-longer-stand-for-australias-inaction-on-climate-change-121976">Pacific Island nations will no longer stand for Australia's inaction on climate change</a>
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<p>Even so, Australia’s stepback from the fund was condemned by <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/poor-nations-castigate-australia-for-abandoning-global-climate-fund-20181023-p50beh.html">Pacific island countries</a>, whose populations are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and who are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/no-endorsements-come-out-of-tuvalu-declaration/11419342">strong supporters</a> of the fund. </p>
<p>Former President of Kiribati Anote Tong <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/poor-nations-castigate-australia-for-abandoning-global-climate-fund-20181023-p50beh.html">commented on the decision</a> in 2018: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think we are coming to the stage where some countries don’t care what their reputation in the international arena is. It seems [Australia] is heading in that direction.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The cast has changed – will the script say the same?</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10784-016-9346-5">2017 research</a> on Australia’s climate finance commitments found pressure from the US — not least during <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/15/g20-obama-puts-climate-change-in-spotlight-as-australian-agenda-sidelined">Obama’s visit</a> to Australia in 2014 — and other countries ultimately served as a catalyst for Prime Minister Tony Abbott to overcome his reluctance to contribute.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Obama on climate change at the University of Queensland.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Subsequently, the Trump administration’s recalcitrance on climate change appears to have given the Morrison government cover to resist international pressure and pull out of it.</p>
<p>Now that the cast has changed again, can we expect Australia to rejoin the fund? </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/scott-morrison-energy-climate-change-rhetoric-change/11918170">signs</a> Morrison’s rhetoric on climate change has shifted compared to Abbott’s. But this hasn’t <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-ghost-of-tony-abbott-paralyses-canberra-on-climate-action-20201113-p56eh7.html">translated</a> into a major policy shift, and he still faces <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/13/coalition-mps-split-over-scott-morrisons-apparent-shift-on-climate-policy">intense pressure</a> from the coalition’s right wing to do as little as possible. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-lagging-on-climate-action-and-inequality-but-the-pandemic-offers-a-chance-to-do-better-149983">Australia is lagging on climate action and inequality, but the pandemic offers a chance to do better</a>
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<p>However, as one of the more moderate members of the Liberal Party, Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne can be expected to appreciate the <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/australia-and-world-time-covid-19">diplomatic value</a> of recommitting to the Green Climate Fund. </p>
<p>After the government’s recent audit of multilateral organisations, Payne <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/speech/australia-and-world-time-covid-19">observed</a> that mulilateralism through strong and transparent institutions “serves Australia’s interests”. Recommitting to the Green Climate Fund would be consistent with this message. </p>
<h2>Global momentum on climate action</h2>
<p>Two other key variables are how the fund and the broader global context have evolved. </p>
<p>In 2014, the fund hadn’t yet delivered any money to developing countries. Since then, work on the ground has got underway, but the fund has faced <a href="https://news.globallandscapesforum.org/42907/a-decade-old-the-worlds-largest-climate-fund-receives-its-first-pulse-check/">criticism</a> around its governance and slow disbursement. </p>
<p>Progress has been <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/06/8-takeaways-green-climate-fund-meltdown">hampered</a> by recurring disagreements between board members from developed and developing countries over the direction of the fund. </p>
<p>While on the fund’s board, Australia was a persistent <a href="https://blog.dfat.gov.au/2017/02/10/the-green-climate-fund-in-2016-a-successful-year-of-australian-leadership/">advocate</a> for robust decision-making processes. But it won’t be in a position to shape the fund’s governance for the better unless it recommits. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-just-stunned-the-world-with-its-step-up-on-climate-action-and-the-implications-for-australia-may-be-huge-147268">China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge</a>
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<p>In any case, a number of contributing countries, such as France, Germany, Norway and the UK, have <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/08/28/france-uk-double-pledges-un-green-fund-3-5bn/">doubled their previous commitments</a>. </p>
<p>This is a vote of confidence in the fund’s capacity to deliver results and leverage private resources more efficiently than dozens of bilateral funding channels. </p>
<p>And it shows how pressure on Australia from Biden will be backed up by the global <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/04/5-ways-momentum-climate-action-has-grown-paris-agreement-was-signed">momentum</a> for climate action, which has built up since the Obama administration. </p>
<h2>The COVID-19 wild card</h2>
<p>While Australia has pledged a further <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/stepping-climate-resilience-pacific">A$500 million</a> for the Pacific from 2020 onwards, its overall A$1 billion commitment, which extends across the Indo-Pacific and beyond, expires this year. Many countries are also due to <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/">update</a> their emissions targets under the Paris Agreement ahead of a major summit in 2021.</p>
<p>But COVID-19 is a wild card. It has placed <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-07/foreign-aid-budget-unofficial-increase-pacific-asia-covid-19/12737096">new demands</a> on development assistance programs and national budgets in Australia and elsewhere. </p>
<p>Still, <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">Australia has fared much better</a> in the pandemic than many other countries so far, while also running an <a href="http://devpolicy.org/aidtracker/comparisons/">aid budget</a> lower than many of its peers. This means Australia can hardly justify going slow on funding when climate change poses a growing threat. </p>
<p>Ramping up its overall commitment to climate finance — and renewing its support for the leading multilateral fund in this area — will be an important sign that Australia is ready to play its part.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-79-of-aussies-care-about-climate-change-so-why-doesnt-the-government-listen-148726">New polling shows 79% of Aussies care about climate change. So why doesn't the government listen?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Pickering has received funding from the Australian Research Council for a previous project on global environmental governance.
Paul Mitchell, Save the Children Australia’s Principal Climate Change Advisor, also contributed to this article. With over 15 years of experience in climate change and development, Paul has developed, implemented, monitored, and evaluated adaptation projects and strategies at local, national and regional scales across the Pacific, South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Save the Children Australia is an Accredited Entity to the Green Climate Fund.
</span></em></p>The Green Climate Fund channels money from rich countries to help low-income countries tackle climate change and cut their emissions. But Australia stopped contributing.Jonathan Pickering, Assistant Professor, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1454942020-09-03T11:32:10Z2020-09-03T11:32:10ZTony Abbott: why Boris Johnson would want Australia’s controversial ex-PM as a trade envoy<p>The rumour that Tony Abbott, the controversial former prime minister of Australia, is being lined up as a trade envoy for the UK was a summer news story few saw coming.</p>
<p>Appearing before the <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/event/1472/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/">House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee</a>, Abbott confirmed that he has had some discussions with members of the British government. However, while he said he is “more than happy to help”, he insisted that nothing is official “as yet”. </p>
<p>Abbott is notorious in Australia for his <a href="https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ocker">“ocker”</a> manner and outlook. He is regularly photographed in a pair of “budgie smugglers” with surfboard under arm at his beloved Queenscliff beach in Manly, Sydney.</p>
<p>He is on record with statements concerning <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/in-1788-it-was-nothing-but-bush-tony-abbott-on-indigenous-australia">indigenous Australians</a>, the environment and the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-caroline-noakes-tears-into-misogynist-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-a4537561.html">role of women in society</a> that would make the most hardened miner in a local pub wince at the insensitivity. Not many public figures embraced the label “dinosaur”, but even his supporters recognise that Abbott is an unreconstructed example of Australian chauvinist manhood.</p>
<p>What on Earth, then, could drive the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his advisers to reach out to someone whose toxicity matches Donald Trump in many quarters?</p>
<p>Opinions vary. Some insist that with the UK in dire need of expertise in its trade negotiations, it makes perfect sense to employ someone highly familiar with the Asia-Pacific economic terrain. The only problem with this hypothesis is that even according to his close confidants Abbott had very little to do with trade during his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/30/fresh-controversy-over-tony-abbotts-brexit-trade-role">term of office</a>, or indeed at any time before or after.</p>
<p>Others smell something more suspicious. Abbott is of course an international figure who has moved in influential circles and has strong connections, not least with the conservative establishment in the US. He moves in high places among the policy wonks, thinktanks and institutes with lavish funds at their disposal to entertain friends and allies. Could this appointment reflect the fact that Abbott is a useful ally in these circles?</p>
<h2>Flying the flag</h2>
<p>Surely there’s a more obvious explanation. This is that Abbott stands symbolically for a set of values and a political orientation which the Johnson government wishes to endorse and align itself with.</p>
<p>In terms of values, Abbott represents a US style of conservatism based on a belief in “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/abbotts-family-values-20090711-dgmr.html">family values</a>”, patriotism and the flag. But within that broad appellation we can also identify a distinctively neoconservative stance in terms of the assertion of “western” values and the superiority of the European inheritance, including but not limited to the value of colonialism and imperialism, and what international relations scholars term “offensive realism”. This is the view that, in a world of competing ideologies, military conflicts are inevitable.</p>
<p>In short, Abbott’s world view is not at all dissimilar to that of Steve Bannon, the controversial architect of the first phase of Trump’s administration. Like Bannon, Abbott is an unapologetic culture warrior. He believes that western societies have lost their way and lost confidence in themselves. He thinks the west needs to refind its mojo and reassert the superiority of its values and way of life, particularly in relation to the Islamic world and China. </p>
<p>All this implies a kind of permanent war against the forces of the left – such as antifa, the left-liberal establishment of universities and the media and the apologists for identity politics, multiculturalism and cosmopolitanism. It also means committing to permanent conflict externally, on the hostile terrain that is global politics. It is a hawkish, unfashionable view of the world with metropolitan elites, but one virulently supported in Australia by its leading newspaper, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-praises-the-australian-as-rupert-murdochs-gift-to-our-nation-20140716-3bzwg.html">the Australian</a>, and by the Rupert Murdoch-owned Sky News.</p>
<h2>Culture war</h2>
<p>The question remains then, what possible use are all these associations to Johnson? He has strived to confect an image of harmless amiability with a “big tent” politics. He has sought to be a lot of different things to a lot of different groups in order to secure the hallowed middle ground of British electoral politics.</p>
<p>The answer is surely that “culture war” of a kind articulated quite crudely by Abbott and Trump but also in Europe by the likes of France’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Marine Le Pen</a>, the Netherlands’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/geert-wilders-4827">Geert Wilders</a>, Italy’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/matteo-salvini-is-down-but-heres-why-he-isnt-out-for-the-count-just-yet-123222">Matteo Salvini</a> and Hungary’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/viktor-orban-20184">Viktor Orban</a> has shown itself to be popular with voters who don’t normally vote for the right. The theme is a great way to draw in working class and precariously employed people who are looking for stronger “authority” figures to deal with what they perceive to be increasingly lawless societies surrendering themselves to immigrants and the multicultural left.</p>
<p>It also serves to insulate a regime from the vagaries of public policy outcomes, of which COVID-19 is the most recent and obvious example. The pandemic is a classic no-win scenario for most governments. Play too lax and one gets blamed for too many deaths. Play it too hard and one suffers the economic consequences of lockdown. A culture war, on the other hand, presents a win-win for conservative regimes across the world looking to maintain power.</p>
<p>Hiring Abbott will not inoculate the UK government against policy failure, as such. But it sends a strong signal to Tory MPs and the wider public that this government wants to be judged less on the flimflam of policy outcomes, over which it has uncertain control, and more on the defence of a certain outlook and a certain way of life that it hopes will chime with the electorate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Tormey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Abbott has little experience on trade but he packs a symbolic punch.Simon Tormey, Professor of Politics, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1248892019-10-08T06:42:15Z2019-10-08T06:42:15ZView from The Hill: Malcolm Turnbull delivers the unpalatable truth to Scott Morrison on climate and energy<p>Sometimes birthdays are best let pass quietly. The Liberals are finding the 75th anniversary of their founding another occasion for the blood sport they thought they’d put behind them.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull are out of parliament – for which Scott Morrison is much thankful – but their passions are unabated. Each has let fly in interviews with The Australian’s Troy Bramston to mark the anniversary.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/tony-abbott-the-accidental-pm/news-story/1aa197f965c7b664565a233f2c456d03">Abbott repeated</a> that it was Turnbull’s undermining which did him in (only the partial truth) and indicated he wouldn’t mind returning to parliament but didn’t think the Liberal party would ask him (absolutely true).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/liberal-party-75-years-celebrate-the-progressive-says-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/3fcb2a0744e57943015baccb776e24c9">Turnbull’s was the more pertinent</a> and, from where the government stands, pointed interview because it fed very directly into central issues of the moment, climate change and energy policy.</p>
<p>“The Liberal Party has just proved itself incapable of dealing with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in any sort of systematic way,” Turnbull said.</p>
<p>“The consequence … is without question that we are paying higher prices for electricity and having higher emissions.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-has-led-the-coalition-to-a-miracle-win-but-how-do-they-govern-from-here-117184">Morrison has led the Coalition to a 'miracle' win, but how do they govern from here?</a>
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<p>He knows what he’s talking about. These issues were critical (though not the only factor) in Turnbull losing the leadership twice - first in opposition and then in government. And that was despite doing deals and trade offs to try to satisfy the right in his party.</p>
<p>He still frets about the battles which cost him so much for so little gain. He told the Australian, amid boasts about what his government had done, that his biggest regret as PM was not settling a new energy policy.</p>
<p>What Scott Morrison really thinks on the climate challenge, or what he would do if he were just driven by policy concerns without regard to party considerations or electoral judgements are in that category of known unknowns.</p>
<p>In few areas can Morrison’s beliefs be divined free of political context.</p>
<p>But we do know two things.</p>
<p>Firstly, we don’t have a satisfactory energy policy: emissions are rising; power prices are too high; investment is being discouraged. An <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/power-play/">analysis released</a> by the Grattan Institute this week was damning about how federal government policies were discouraging investment including by “bashing big companies” (the so-called “big stick” legislation, allowing for divestment when an energy company is recalcitrant, is still before parliament).</p>
<p>Secondly, climate change is again resonating strongly in the community.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-liberal-party-hold-its-broad-church-of-liberals-and-conservatives-together-93575">Can the Liberal Party hold its 'broad church' of liberals and conservatives together?</a>
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<p>Critics dismiss the attention young activist Greta Thunberg has received internationally, and this week’s “Extinction Rebellion” demonstrations, and many in the government would point to the election result to note that climate change did not carry the day with the “quiet Australians”.</p>
<p>The Morrison win, however, doesn’t mean the issue lacks cut through, or won’t have potency in the future. And although the Liberals like to talk about the miracle victory, it should be remembered the win was by a sliver, not by 30 seats. What made it so notable was that it defied expectations.</p>
<p>Turnbull said in his interview the Liberal party had been influenced by a group that was denialist and reactionary on climate change.</p>
<p>It still is, but this group is not giving trouble at the moment because Morrison, unlike his predecessor, is not provoking them. </p>
<p>The problem for Morrison is that keeping his party calm doesn’t solve the policy problem. Unless that is more effectively tackled, it could come back to bite him, regardless of the positive tale he tries to spin, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/defiant-scott-morrison-tells-the-world-australia-is-doing-our-bit-on-climate-change-124269">in his United Nations speech</a>.</p>
<p>Turnbull also said in his interview that, among much else, in government he had been “very focused on innovation” which, as we remember, was his catch cry in his early days as PM.</p>
<p>And, if we take <a href="http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/">information from the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for International Development</a>, reported in <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-is-rich-dumb-and-getting-dumber-20191007-p52y8i">Tuesday’s Australian Financial Review</a>, Australia needs innovation to be a much higher priority.</p>
<p>Australia fell from 57th to 93rd between 1995 and 2017 on the index of economic complexity, which measures the diversity and sophistication of countries’ exports. Our wealth comes from the minerals and energy that form the bulk of our exports but “Australia is less complex than expected for its income level. As a result, its economy is projected to grow slowly. The Growth Lab’s 2027 Growth Projections foresee growth in Australia of 2.2% annually over the coming decade, ranking in the bottom half of countries globally,” the data says.</p>
<p>“Economic growth is driven by diversification into new products that are incrementally more complex. … Australia has diversified into too few products to contribute to substantial income growth.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-turnbull-government-is-all-but-finished-and-the-liberals-will-now-need-to-work-out-who-they-are-101894">The Turnbull government is all but finished, and the Liberals will now need to work out who they are</a>
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<p>Turnbull’s talk of innovation, agility, and the like was seen by many in his ranks, particularly in hindsight, as too high falutin’. It certainly went down badly in regional areas, which is why in 2016 the Nationals sharply differentiated themselves in the election campaign.</p>
<p>The Harvard work suggests Turnbull’s innovation ambition was on the right track. But the political evidence showed he was a bad salesman for this (and a lot else).</p>
<p>Morrison is a good marketing man. But the test of his prime ministership will be whether he can use his marketing skills to sell policies that the country needs, rather just what he thinks will go over easily with his constituency.</p>
<p>The most effective leaders (and that excludes both Abbott and Turnbull) can both identify what the nation requires and persuade enough of the voters to embrace it, even when it’s difficult. They operate not on the principle of the lowest common electoral denominator, or simplistic descriptions of their supporters - rather they pursue the highest achievable goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sometimes birthdays are best let pass quietly. The Liberals are finding the 75th anniversary of their founding another unfortunate occasion for the blood sport they thought they’d put behind them.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1214952019-08-08T03:49:41Z2019-08-08T03:49:41Z‘Alt-right white extremism’ or conservative mobilising: what are CPAC’s aims in Australia?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287284/original/file-20190808-144838-1u2q90u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=315%2C0%2C4002%2C2504&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigel Farage is due to make a return to Australia at this weekend's CPAC event, alongside Tony Abbott, Raheem Kassam and other right-wing speakers</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This weekend, the inaugural Australian <a href="https://cpacaustralia.org/">Conservative Political Action Conference</a> kicks off in Sydney, an event that is causing considerable controversy even before it has begun.</p>
<p>Shadow Minister for Home Affairs Kristina Keneally <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/unhinged-libs-dismiss-keneallys-alt-right-claims/news-story/c8b2214b6715e5c1f5070db965045591">has called on</a> Prime Minister Scott Morrison to condemn the conference, which she argues imports “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/kristina-keneally-calls-for-pm-condemn-right-wing-gathering-cpac/11390192">alt-right white extremism</a>” from the US. Morrison needs to stand up for Australian gun laws, she says, because of fears that attendees from the US Republican Party will push a pro-gun position while they are here. </p>
<p>Is Keneally right?</p>
<h2>The CPAC speakers</h2>
<p>CPAC is an influential, annual gathering of conservatives in America with a history dating back nearly 50 years. The conference brings together conservative politicians, advisers, journalists, public commentators, lobbying groups and other public figures. President Donald Trump delivered a two-hour speech at this year’s event, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-lets-loose-cpac-longest-speech-his-presidency-n978556">the longest of his presidency</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump’s epic speech at this year’s CPAC event in the US.</span></figcaption>
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<p>It has, at times, also included those on the alt-right or extreme-right. And it frequently sparks controversy.</p>
<p>A furore arose at CPAC 2017 when Wayne LaPierre, the head of the National Rifle Association, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/florida-shooting-nra-cpac-wayne-la-pierre-gun-control-hate-freedom-cpac-a8223616.html">accused</a> gun control advocates of hating freedom, just days after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/parkland-victims-remembered-in-silence-one-year-on-from-shooting/10814754">a mass shooting</a> at a Florida high school.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=842&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287289/original/file-20190808-144862-1vr4ewo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1058&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Raheem Kassam has tweeted that a Scottish politician should have her legs taped shut ‘so she can’t reproduce.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2017/nov/06/gary-younge-interviews-richard-spencer-africans-have-benefited-from-white-supremacy">Richard Spencer</a>, the founder of an alt-right movement that envisions a whites-only state, also frequently attended CPAC before <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/02/23/cpac-organizer-denounces-alt-right-as-left-wing-fascist-group/">being kicked out</a> in 2017. That year, Steve Bannon, then-head of Breitbart News, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/23/steve-bannon-cpac-rare-public-address-west-wing-power-trump-adviser">gave a rousing speech</a> promoting economic nationalism and the dismantling of the “administrative state”.</p>
<p>The CPAC 2019 travelling roadshow coming to Australia also includes some familiar names in far-right politics. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/nigel-farage-makes-trumpian-trouble-with-his-new-brexit-party">Nigel Farage</a>, the former leader of the UK Independence Party, and his controversial adviser <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-raheem-kassam-calls-to-ban-the-far-right-speaker-blur-line-between-free-speech-and-hate-speech-121309">Raheem Kassam</a> will be in attendance. Keneally says Kassam has</p>
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<p>an extensive history of vilifying people on the grounds of their race, religion, sexuality and gender.</p>
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<p>Other speakers include Fox News presenter Jeanine Pirro, who was recently <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/10/media/jeanine-pirro-ilhan-omar/index.html">rebuked</a> by her own network over a comment she made about Somali-American Representative Ilhan Omar.</p>
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<p>Think about it: Omar wears a hijab. Is her adherence to this Islamic doctrine indicative of her adherence to Sharia law, which in itself is antithetical to the United States Constitution?</p>
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<p>Unlike CPAC in the US, the Australian event is not primarily a gathering of politicians from one political party. Only two current sitting members from the Liberal Party are billed to speak – MP Craig Kelly and Senator Amanda Stoker – alongside former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, conservative media commentators, and a few elected representatives from minor parties.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-raheem-kassam-calls-to-ban-the-far-right-speaker-blur-line-between-free-speech-and-hate-speech-121309">Who is Raheem Kassam? Calls to ban the far-right speaker blur line between free speech and hate speech</a>
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<h2>Far-right speakers stirring up hate</h2>
<p>Farage made a controversial tour of Australia last year, during which he warned the Liberal Party to pay more attention to “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-04/nigel-farage-warns-australian-politicians-to-start-listening/10197230">those who actually want patriotic values</a>” and more to be done about immigration, or <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nation/nigel-farage-attacks-political-correctness-the-abc-and-left-in-sydney-speech/news-story/66f8ab029a7b83112ae4f638a2617c46">risk being washed away</a>. </p>
<p>He also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/02/nigel-farage-fans-heckled-outside-event-perth-australia">praised</a> One Nation leader Pauline Hanson for speaking against Islamism, though he warned against taking on the “holy war against the religion of Islam”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-should-be-wary-of-the-proud-boys-and-their-violent-alt-right-views-104945">Why Australia should be wary of the Proud Boys and their violent, alt-right views</a>
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<p>Farage was one of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/03/cpac-how-australias-rightwing-speaking-circuit-went-from-pr-stunt-to-cash-cow">series of controversial far-right speakers</a> to visit Australia in recent years, along with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/05/milo-yiannopoulos-speaks-australia-respectable-racists-howl-approval">Milo Yiannopoulos</a>, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/stefan-molyneux">Stefan Molyneux</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/16/news-corps-promotion-of-lauren-southern-is-disturbing">Lauren Southern</a>. </p>
<p>And these appearances have at times stirred up hate. During a sold-out event in Sydney, Molyneux and Southern <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2017/07/30/far-right-canadian-duos-vile-rampage-against-aboriginal-culture-sydney-event">made numerous derogatory comments</a> about Indigenous Australians.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1023158405379194883"}"></div></p>
<p>There is no doubt these visits helped spread a far-right, anti-immigration and anti-Islam message in Australia. Southern, for example, is credited with sparking Hanson’s failed attempt to pass an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-45861433">“It’s OK to be white” motion in the Senate</a>. </p>
<h2>Will Australian CPAC be different?</h2>
<p>This is also not the first time that such a gathering of conservative political speakers has been held in Australia. CPAC co-host <a href="https://cpacaustralia.org/speakers/andrew-cooper/">Andrew Cooper</a>, a successful online retailer and entrepreneur, has organised and funded similar events for a number of years under the “LibertyWorks” banner. </p>
<p>LibertyWorks is against government regulation and state involvement in “<a href="https://libertyworks.org.au/people/andrew-cooper/">our economic and personal lives</a>”, <a href="https://libertyworks.org.au/petition-repeal-section-18c-18d-racial-discrimination-act/">anti-discrimination laws</a> such as 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, political correctness, and the curtailing of free speech. It is part of a conservative network of think tanks and lobby groups, such as the <a href="https://aip.asn.au/">Australian Institute for Progress</a>, which frequently share staff and board members. </p>
<p>Operating within a libertarian framework, LibertyWorks supports the <a href="https://libertyworks.org.au/cannabis-just-legalise-already/">legalisation of cannabis</a>, but opposes plain packaging on cigarettes. One of the key themes addressed at its annual conference, LibertyFest, has been how to <a href="https://www.theunshackled.net/rundown/the-main-highlights-from-libertyfest/">protect religious freedom</a> with the advent of marriage equality.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-far-rights-creeping-influence-on-australian-politics-93723">The far-right's creeping influence on Australian politics</a>
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<p>LibertyFest has been held in Brisbane since 2017 and in Perth in 2019, featuring speakers like One Nation Senator <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-s-malcolm-roberts-wants-migration-more-than-halved-20180929-p506ui.html">Malcolm Roberts</a>, anti-feminist <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/those-on-the-right-are-prettier-and-more-confident-daisy-cousens-says-20180929-p506ud.html">Daisy Cousens</a>, climate denier <a href="https://skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Ian_Plimer.htm">Ian Plimer</a>, anti-mosque campaigners from <a href="https://libertyfest.org.au/et_speakers/safe-communities-aust/">Safe Communities Australia</a>, and conservative Christian James Fox Higgins, who <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-world-is-a-safe-space-for-white-heterosexual-men-so-why-the-f-can-t-we-have-one-space-for-ourselves-20190129-p50u98.html">told a Brisbane crowd</a> at this year’s event:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You can be proud to be Asian or black, but being proud to be white means you’re a Nazi.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Bernard Gaynor, a far-right blogger who was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/18/far-right-campaigner-bernard-gaynor-fails-to-overturn-dismissal-from-army">dismissed</a> from the army for anti-gay comments, won a <a href="https://www.theunshackled.net/rundown/the-main-highlights-from-libertyfest/">free speech award</a> at Brisbane LibertyFest 2018. Another surprise guest that year was neo-Nazi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/11/the-natural-conclusion-of-the-moral-and-intellectual-collapse-of-australian-conservatism">Blair Cottrell</a>. </p>
<h2>What is CPAC Australia aiming to do?</h2>
<p>CPAC’s aim in America is to build lobbying power and develop grassroots campaigning for Republican candidates. Much of this effort is focused on fundraising and getting Republican voters to turn out for elections. </p>
<p>As Australia has different rules regarding campaign donations, no directly elected head of government, and compulsory voting, it stands to reason the Australian CPAC must have different goals.</p>
<p>The Australian CPAC organisers have adopted the slogan “Protect the Future – fight on”. This makes sense because a constant theme at LibertyFest is that conservatives and libertarians are losing the political and culture wars to the left. </p>
<p>In particular, many LibertyFest speakers see dangers in the increasing regulation of the economy and creeping power of the state. They have called for slashing funding to the ABC and other cultural institutions that rely on taxpayer funding. The <a href="https://cpacaustralia.org/about/">CPAC event webpage</a> provides a clear list of the other dangers: militant unions, the Greens, socialism, and GetUp. </p>
<p>Cooper, the founder of LibertyWorks and co-host of CPAC, has described his philosophy as <a href="https://libertyfest.org.au/et_speakers/andrew-cooper/">“live and let live”</a>, but he is firmly committed to radical change, such as winding back the welfare state, reducing funding for state schools, and reducing taxes. </p>
<p>During a LibertyFest panel in 2017, he spoke of the need to mobilise conservative voters on these issues in Australia:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our belief is to motivate people to change their vote, or to get them to ‘get up’ or start something. They’ve got to have some sort of philosophical belief system that provides that motivation.</p>
</blockquote>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jbpfq-fOaw8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Cooper discusses political action during a panel at LibertyFest in 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But does this necessarily include alt-right viewpoints? Perhaps not, but there are worrying signs. </p>
<p>Certainly, some of the speakers coming to CPAC have expressed anti-Islam and anti-immigration viewpoints in the past – and they’re likely to do so on the weekend. Other speakers will surely attack the usual targets of conservatives in Australia: the media, feminism, the regulation of hate speech and discrimination, and so on.</p>
<p>The likely outcome of CPAC Australia is a strengthened conservative lobbying force that uses social issues in a culture war to achieve libertarian economic goals. If so, Australian politics could become more divisive, as views once considered extreme are further incorporated into the lobbying toolkit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaz Ross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The theme of the conference is ‘protect the future’, an allusion to the culture wars that conservatives are waging against the left. There are fears this could include alt-right messages of hate.Kaz Ross, Lecturer in Humanities (Asian Studies), University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1186012019-06-17T16:49:12Z2019-06-17T16:49:12ZFinal 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition’s upset victory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279750/original/file-20190617-118510-1hn47ro.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=585%2C48%2C3196%2C1658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The most important reason for the Coalition's victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while Labor leader Bill Shorten was not.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>UPDATE: Links to Australian Electoral Commission pages in this article no longer work, as the Electoral Commission has moved its results to archived pages <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDefault-24310.htm">available here.</a></em></p>
<p>At the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-24310.htm">May 18 election</a>, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The Coalition government holds a three-seat majority.</p>
<p>Owing to redistributions and the loss of Wentworth to independent Kerryn Phelps at an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/kerryn-phelps-wins-wentworth-by-election-in-historic-result/10400270">October 2018 byelection</a>, the Coalition notionally had 73 seats before the election, a one-seat advantage over Labor. Using this measure, the Coalition gained a net four seats in the election. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/list?filter=changing&sort=az&state=all">Coalition gained</a> the Queensland seats of Herbert and Longman, the Tasmanian seats of Braddon and Bass, and the New South Wales seat of Lindsay. Labor’s only offsetting gain was the NSW seat of Gilmore. Corangamite and Dunkley are not counted as Labor gains as they were redistributed into notional Labor seats.</p>
<p>Four of the six pre-election crossbenchers easily held their seats – Adam Bandt (Melbourne), Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) and Bob Katter (Kennedy). The Liberals narrowly regained <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-152.htm">Wentworth</a> from Phelps, but independent Zali Steggall thrashed Tony Abbott 57%-43% in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-151.htm">Warringah</a>. In <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-218.htm">Indi</a>, independent Helen Haines succeeded retiring independent Cathy McGowan, defeating the Liberals by 51.4%-48.6%. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-hails-miracle-as-coalition-snatches-unexpected-victory-117375">Scott Morrison hails 'miracle' as Coalition snatches unexpected victory</a>
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<p>The Coalition easily defeated independent challengers in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-113.htm">Cowper</a> and <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-118.htm">Farrer</a>.</p>
<p>While Bandt was re-elected, the Greens went backwards in their other inner-Melbourne target seats of Wills and Cooper. Only in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-221.htm">Kooyong</a> did the Greens manage to beat Labor into second.</p>
<p>The final <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">primary votes</a> were 41.4% Coalition (down 0.6%), 33.3% Labor (down 1.4%), 10.4% Greens (up 0.2%), 3.4% United Australia Party (UAP) and 3.1% One Nation (up 1.8%). </p>
<p>The final <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-24310.htm">two-party vote</a> was 51.5% for the Coalition to 48.5% for Labor, a 1.2% swing in the Coalition’s favour from the 2016 election. It is the first pro-government swing since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Australian_federal_election">2004 election</a>. </p>
<p>It was expected the Coalition would do better once the 15 “<a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseNonClassicDivisions-24310.htm">non-classic</a>” seats were included; these are seats where the final two candidates were not Coalition and Labor. However, 11 of these seats swung to Labor, including a 9.0% swing in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-151.htm">Warringah</a> and a 7.9% swing in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-152.htm">Wentworth</a>. Eight non-classics were <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-24310.htm">inner-city electorates</a> that tended to swing to Labor.</p>
<p>The table below shows the number of seats in each state and territory, the Coalition’s number of seats, the Coalition’s percentage of seats, the gains for the Coalition compared to the redistribution, the Coalition’s <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByState-24310.htm">two-party vote</a>, the swing to the Coalition in two-party terms, and the number of Labor seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279754/original/file-20190617-118530-xvjo53.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Final seats won and votes cast in the House for each state and nationally.</span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Four of the six states recorded swings to the Coalition in the range from 0.9% to 1.6%. Victoria was the only state that swung to Labor, by 1.3%. Queensland had a 4.3% swing to the Coalition, far larger than any other state. Labor did well to win a majority of NSW seats despite losing the two-party vote convincingly.</p>
<p>Official <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm">turnout</a> in the election was 91.9%, up 0.9% from 2016. Analyst <a href="http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38870">Ben Raue</a> says 96.8% of eligible voters were enrolled, the highest ever. That means effective turnout was 89.0% of the population, up 2.6%. </p>
<h2>Education divide explains Coalition’s win</h2>
<p>Not only did Steggall thump Abbott in Warringah, the electorate’s 9.0% swing to Labor on a two-party basis was the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-24310-NAT.htm">largest swing to Labor</a> in the country. Abbott’s two-party vote percentage of 52.1% was by far the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Warringah">lowest for a conservative candidate</a> against Labor since Warringah’s creation in 1922; the next lowest was 59.5% in 2007.</p>
<p>While Abbott did badly, other divisive Coalition MPs performed well. Barnaby Joyce won 54.8% of the primary vote in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-135.htm">New England</a> and gained a 1.2% two-party swing against Labor. Peter Dutton had a 3.0% two-party swing to him in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-252.htm">Dickson</a>, and George Christensen had a massive 11.2% two-party swing to him in <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-24310-158.htm">Dawson</a>, the second-largest for the Coalition nationally.</p>
<p>According to the 2016 census, 42% of those aged 16 and over in <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED143?opendocument">Warringah</a> had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 22% in Australia overall. Just 13.5% had at least a bachelor’s degree in <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED130?opendocument">New England</a>, 19% in <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED307?opendocument">Dickson</a> and 12% in <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED306?opendocument">Dawson</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/2?opendocument">Victoria</a>, which swung to Labor, 24.3% of the population had at least a bachelor’s degree in 2016, the highest of any state in the nation. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2019/06/election-2019-the-result-wasnt-the-only-surprise/">Grattan Institute</a> has charted swings to Labor and the Coalition, taking into account wealth and tertiary education. Only polling booths in the top-income quintile swung to Labor; the other four income quintiles swung to the Coalition.</p>
<p>Areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, but less so in Victoria. There were solid swings to Labor in areas with high levels of tertiary education.</p>
<p>Some of the swings are explained by contrary swings in 2016, when the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull performed relatively worse in lower-educated areas and better in higher-educated areas. However, Queensland’s 58.4% two-party vote for the Coalition was 1.4% better than at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseTppByState-17496.htm">2013 election</a>, even though the national result is 2.0% worse. The large swings to the Coalition in regional Queensland are probably partly due to the Adani coal mine issue.</p>
<h2>Morrison’s appeal to lower-educated voters</h2>
<p>Since becoming prime minister, Scott Morrison’s Newspoll ratings have been roughly neutral, with about as many people saying they are satisfied with him as those dissatisfied. After Morrison became leader, I suggested on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/reachtel-50-50-tie-in-wentworth-and-where-morrison-could-have-problems/">personal website</a> that the Coalition would struggle with educated voters, and this occurred in the election. However, Morrison’s appeal to those with a lower level of education more than compensated.</p>
<p>In my opinion, the most important reason for the Coalition’s upset victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while they neither liked nor trusted Labor leader Bill Shorten.</p>
<p>Earlier this month, The Guardian published a long <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/08/it-felt-like-a-big-tide-how-the-death-tax-lie-infected-australias-election-campaign?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">report</a> on the social media “death tax” scare campaign. While this and other Coalition scare campaigns may have had an impact on the result, they did so by playing into lower-educated voters’ distrust of Shorten. Had these voters trusted Shorten, such scare campaigns would have had less influence.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-election-loss-was-not-a-surprise-if-you-take-historical-trends-into-account-117399">Labor's election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account</a>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/australianlabor/status/1122055783623958528">Labor also ran scare campaign ads</a> attacking Morrison for deals with Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson. But I believe these ads failed to resonate because lower-educated voters liked Morrison better.</p>
<p>I think Morrison won support from the lower-educated because they are sceptical of “inner-city elites”. The Coalition leader emphasised his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/election-2019-analysis-morrison-campaign-strategy-the-pub-test/11035336">non-elite attributes</a> during the campaign, such as by playing sport and going to church. Turnbull was perceived as a member of the elite, which could explain swings to Labor in lower-educated areas in 2016.</p>
<p>Parallels can be drawn to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election">2017 election in the UK</a>. Labour performed far better than expected in the election, reducing the Conservatives to a minority government when they were expected to win easily. Labour had adopted a pro-Brexit position, which may have sent a message to lower-educated voters that they could support the party.</p>
<p>This offers an option for Australian Labor to try to win back support from lower-educated voters: adopt a hardline immigration policy. Votes that Labor would lose to the Greens by doing this would likely be returned as preferences.</p>
<p>See also my <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-final-results-how-trump-won-69356">similar article</a> on how Donald Trump won the US 2016 presidential election.</p>
<h2>The problem with the polls</h2>
<p>The table below shows all national polls released in the final week compared to the election result. A poll estimate within 1% of the actual result is in bold.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279661/original/file-20190616-158917-1l3afox.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=245&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal polls compared with election results, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The polls did well on the One Nation and UAP votes, and were a little low on the Greens. The major source of error was that Labor’s vote was overstated and the Coalition’s was understated. Only Ipsos had Labor’s vote right, but it overstated the Greens vote by about three points – a common occurrence for Ipsos. </p>
<p>No poll since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election">July 2018</a> had given the Coalition a primary vote of at least 40%. In the election, the Coalition parties received 41.4% of the vote.</p>
<p>As I said in my <a href="https://theconversation.com/newspoll-probably-wrong-since-morrison-became-pm-polling-has-been-less-accurate-at-recent-elections-117400">post-election write-up</a>, it is likely that polls oversampled educated voters.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-election-but-abbott-loses-warringah-plus-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-116804">Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Seat polls during the campaign were almost all from YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/31/swings-misses-episode-three/">Poll Bludger</a> says these polls were, like the national polls, biased against the Coalition.</p>
<p>Analyst Peter Brent has calculated the two-party vote for all election-day and early votes. The gap between election day and early votes increased to 5.0% in 2019 from 4.6% in 2016. This does not imply that polls missed because of a dramatic late swing to the Coalition in the final days; it is much more likely the polls have been wrong for a long time.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1140417601069129728"}"></div></p>
<h2>Boris Johnson very likely to be Britain’s next PM, and left wins Danish election</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/06/14/uk-conservative-leadership-first-round-results/">The Poll Bludger</a> on June 14 that, after winning the support of 114 of the 313 Conservative MPs in the first round of voting, Boris Johnson is virtually assured of becoming the next British PM. Polls suggest he will boost the Conservative vote.</p>
<p>I also wrote on my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/left-wins-danish-election-new-israeli-election-german-greens-surge-to-tie-for-lead-left-gains-in-tas-upper-house/">personal website</a> on June 6 about the left’s win in the Danish election. Also covered: a new Israeli election, the German Greens’ surge, and the left gaining a seat in the May 4 Tasmanian upper house periodical elections.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1177522019-06-12T20:16:56Z2019-06-12T20:16:56ZWhy old-school climate denial has had its day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276713/original/file-20190528-92765-10ox7aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New South Wales, which was 100% drought-declared in August 2018, is already suffering climate impacts. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/157067200@N03/32872663567">Michael Cleary</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Coalition has been re-elected to government, and after six years in office it has <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-continue-to-rise-20190228-h1bum1">not created any effective policies for reducing greenhouse emissions</a>. Does that mean the Australian climate change debate is stuck in 2013? Not exactly. </p>
<p>While Australia still lacks effective climate change policies, the debate has definitely shifted. It’s particularly noticeable to scientists, like myself, who were very active participants in the Australian climate debate just a few years ago. </p>
<p>The debate has moved away from the basic science, and on to the economic and political ramifications. And if advocates for reducing greenhouse emissions don’t fully recognise this, they risk shooting themselves in the foot.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/276507/original/file-20190527-187157-1ik6hml.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions are not falling.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Environment and Energy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The old denials</h2>
<p>Old-school climate change denial, be it denial that warming is taking place or that humans are responsible for that warming, featured prominently in Australian politics a decade ago. In 2009 Tony Abbott, then a Liberal frontbencher jockeying for the party leadership, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/tony-abbott-draws-battlelines-for-the-liberal-party/2674932">told ABC’s 7.30 Report</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am, as you know, hugely unconvinced by the so-called settled science on climate change.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The theory and evidence base for human-induced climate change is vast and growing. In contrast, the counterarguments were so sloppy that there were many targets for scientists to shoot at. </p>
<p>Climate “<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-sceptic-or-climate-denier-its-not-that-simple-and-heres-why-117913">sceptics</a>” have always been very keen on cherrypicking data. They would make a big fuss about <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/climate-change-deniers-raise-the-heat-on-the-bureau-of-meteorology-20140909-10eedk.html">some unusually cold days, or alleged discrepancies at a handful of weather stations</a>, while ignoring broader trends. They made <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-the-bureau-of-meteorology-is-not-fiddling-its-weather-data-31009">claims of data manipulation</a> that, if true, would entail a global conspiracy, despite the availability of <a href="http://berkeleyearth.org/analysis-code/">code</a> and data. </p>
<p>Incorrect predictions of <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/news/sorry-to-ruin-the-fun-but-an-ice-age-cometh/news-story/e886912c2f02d7a22e0fb9a568e4f4da">imminent global cooling</a> were made on the basis of rudimentary analyses rather than sophisticated models. Cycles were invoked, in a manner reminiscent of epicycles and stock market “<a href="https://www.worldfinance.com/wealth-management/the-myth-of-chartism">chartism</a>” – but doodling with spreadsheets cannot defeat carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>That was the state of climate “scepticism” a decade ago, and frankly that’s where it remains in 2019. It’s old, tired, and increasingly irrelevant as the impact of climate change becomes clearer. </p>
<p>Australians just cannot ignore the <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-wind-and-heat-when-fire-seasons-start-earlier-and-last-longer-101663">extended bushfire season</a>, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs70.pdf">drought</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reef-has-been-bleaching-for-at-least-400-years-but-its-getting-worse-101691">bleached coral reefs</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1131162014733090816"}"></div></p>
<h2>Partisans</h2>
<p>Climate “scepticism” was always underpinned by politics rather than science, and that’s clearer now than it was a decade ago. </p>
<p>Several Australian climate contrarians describe themselves as libertarians - falling to the right of mainstream Australian politics. David Archibald is a climate sceptic, but is now better known as candidate for the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/federal-election-2019/fraser-anning-recycles-wa-candidate-who-says-single-mothers-are-lazy-and-ugly-20190425-p51hb3.html">Australian Liberty Alliance, One Nation and (finally) Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party</a>. The climate change denying Galileo Movement’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190308085928/www.galileomovement.com.au/who_we_are.php">claim to be to be non-partisan</a> was always suspect - and now doubly so with its former project leader, Malcolm Roberts, representing One Nation in the Senate. </p>
<p>Given this, it isn’t surprising that relatively few Australians reject the science of climate change. Just <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-record-share-of-australians-say-humans-cause-climate-change-poll-20190328-p518go.html">11%</a> of Australians believe recent global warming is natural, and only <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-record-share-of-australians-say-humans-cause-climate-change-poll-20190328-p518go.html">4%</a> believe “there’s no such thing as climate change”.</p>
<p>Old-school climate change denial isn’t just unfounded, it’s also unpopular. Before last month’s federal election, Abbott <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/07/tony-abbott-bet-me-100-the-climate-will-not-change-in-10-years">bet a cafe patron in his electorate A$100 that “the climate will not change in ten years”</a>. It reminded me of similar <a href="https://mashable.com/article/climate-change-science-bet/">bets made and lost over the past decade</a>. We don’t know whether Abbott will end up paying out on the bet – but we do know he lost his seat.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1125647633488465921"}"></div></p>
<h2>The shift</h2>
<p>So what has changed in the years since Abbott was able to gain traction, rather than opprobrium, by disdaining climate science? The Australian still runs Ian Plimer and Maurice Newman on its opinion pages, and Sky News “after dark” often features climate cranks. But prominent politicians rarely repeat their nonsense any more. When the government spins Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/whichever-way-you-spin-it-australias-greenhouse-emissions-have-been-climbing-since-2015-118112">rising emissions</a>, it does it by claiming that investing in natural gas helps cut emissions elsewhere, rather than by pretending CO₂ is merely “plant food”.</p>
<p>As a scientist, I rarely feel the need to debunk the claims of old-school climate cranks. OK, I did recently discuss the weather predictions of a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/astrology/11130220">“corporate astrologer” with Media Watch</a>, but that was just bizarre rather than urgent.</p>
<p>Back in the real world, the debate has shifted to costs and jobs.</p>
<p>Modelling by the economist Brian Fisher, who concluded that climate policies would be very expensive, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/new-modelling-to-unleash-explosive-row-over-climate-change-costings-20190501-p51j5e.html">featured prominently in the election campaign</a>. Federal energy minister Angus Taylor, now also responsible for reducing emissions, used the figures to attack the Labor Party, despite expert <a href="https://twitter.com/frankjotzo/status/1107742351139602432">warnings</a> that the modelling used “absurd cost assumptions”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1123334993185361920"}"></div></p>
<p>Many people still assume the costs of climate change are in the future, despite us increasingly seeing the impacts now. While scientists work to <a href="https://twitter.com/ProfTerryHughes/status/1133172695871320064">quantify the environmental damage</a>, arguments about the costs and benefits of climate policy are the domain of economists.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/don-t-buy-into-the-fake-coal-war-union-calls-on-labor-candidates-to-back-mining-20190411-p51d8g.html">Jobs associated with coal mining</a> were a prominent theme of the election campaign, and may have been decisive in Queensland’s huge anti-Labor swing. It is obvious that burning more coal makes more CO₂, but that fact <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everyone-cares-about-climate-change-but-reproach-wont-change-their-minds-118255">doesn’t stop people wanting jobs</a>. The new green economy is uncharted territory for many workers with skills and experience in mining.</p>
<p>That said, there are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-23/the-math-on-adani-s-carmichael-coal-mine-doesn-t-add-up">economic arguments against new coalmines</a> and new mines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-23/macmines-abandons-mining-lease-applications/11138310">may not deliver the number of jobs promised</a>. Australian power companies, unlike government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-new-coal-fired-power-plant-would-cost-3-billion-drive-up-energy-prices-and-take-eight-years-to-build-20180403-p4z7jg.html">backbenchers</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-28/clive-palmers-waratah-coal-meets-with-queensland-government/11155728">Clive Palmer</a>, have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/big-power-companies-snub-government-underwriting-for-new-coal-plants-20190311-p513a2.html">little enthusiasm for new coal-fired power stations</a>. But the fact remains that these economic issues are largely outside the domain of scientists.</p>
<p>Debates about climate policy remain heated, despite the scientific basics being widely accepted. Concerns about economic costs and jobs must be addressed, even if those concerns are built on flawed assumptions and promises that may be not kept. We also cannot forget that climate change is already here, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018.pdf">impacting agriculture in particular</a>. </p>
<p>Science should inform and underpin arguments, but economics and politics are now the principal battlegrounds in the Australian climate debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. I. Brown receives research funding from the Australian Research Council and Monash University.
</span></em></p>Ten years ago, politicians such as Tony Abbott would routinely voice disdain for climate science. Now, while the policy debate remains fierce, the battleground has shifted to economics and jobs.Michael J. I. Brown, Associate professor in astronomy, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1183962019-06-12T03:07:11Z2019-06-12T03:07:11ZAustralia’s asylum seeker policy history: a story of blunders and shame<p><em>This article was developed from a series of interviews with politicians, officials and other key players, including former Immigration minister Chris Evans and former Victorian premier Steve Bracks. Others preferred to remain anonymous.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>We know very little about the kind of government Scott Morrison runs. After beating Peter Dutton and Julie Bishop to the prime ministership in August last year, most commentators assumed Morrison was keeping the chair warm until Labor’s Bill Shorten won the 2019 election. </p>
<p>Following the Coalition’s unexpected victory, it’s time to ask more searching questions, not only about Scott Morrison’s political values and policy aspirations, but about his prime ministerial style.</p>
<p>Recent history suggests processes of policy decision-making can make or break governments. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cruel-and-no-deterrent-why-australias-policy-on-asylum-seekers-must-change-117969">Cruel, and no deterrent: why Australia's policy on asylum seekers must change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Labor’s shambolic attempts to create asylum seeker policy during the Rudd-Gillard years are emblematic of the dire consequences when tried-and-tested processes of policy advice fail.</p>
<p>In the face of internal dissent, thousands of asylum seekers arriving by boat and a marauding opposition leader, the government rejected its most vital source of advice, the public service.</p>
<h2>It began in 2009</h2>
<p>In mid-October 2009, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was informed that a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceanic-viking-breakthrough-asylum-seekers-to-come-ashore-20091117-ijly.html">vessel carrying 78 Sri Lankan asylum seekers</a> was in danger of sinking in Indonesian waters. Rudd negotiated directly with the Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and decided to dispatch a Customs vessel, the Oceanic Viking, to rescue the asylum seekers and return them to Indonesia.</p>
<p>The then immigration minister Chris Evans first heard of the plan when he received a phone call from Rudd’s chief of staff, Alister Jordan. </p>
<p>Jordan was not consulting the immigration minister, but rather informing him of a plan that had been enacted. Evans rang his departmental secretary, Andrew Metcalfe, who told him the plan would not work because the asylum seekers would <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Triumph_and_Demise.html?id=Ij9bBAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">refuse to disembark</a>.</p>
<p>As Metcalfe had foreseen, the asylum seekers refused to leave the Australian boat at Bintan. Australian voice surveillance revealed there was <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Triumph_and_Demise.html?id=Ij9bBAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">talk of mass suicide</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-next-australian-government-can-balance-security-and-compassion-for-asylum-seekers-110713">How the next Australian government can balance security and compassion for asylum seekers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The standoff lasted four weeks, until a deal was struck that saw the Sri Lankans resettled in countries including New Zealand.</p>
<p>Officials in the Immigration Department were dumbfounded. One told me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Oceanic Viking was a thought bubble from Rudd … It was an absolute debacle. It was crazy. It had nothing to do with immigration but we were asked to go in and fix it up. And that scuttled any possibility of us doing anything with Indonesia for a long time.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The boats kept coming. There were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-30/boat-arrivals-record-broken/4162680">6,555 boat arrivals in 2010</a>. On the night he lost the prime ministership to Julia Gillard, Rudd told the Labor caucus that if he won the leadership vote, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-06-23/gillard-moves-on-rudd/878810">he would</a> “not be lurching to the right on question of asylum seekers”. </p>
<p>What Rudd didn’t mention was that the government had been actively exploring offshore options for some time. </p>
<p>The Immigration Department had prepared a list of possible sites for offshore detention that included Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, and East Timor. </p>
<h2>Sounding out the East Timorese government</h2>
<p>Evans was focused on pursuing a multilateral solution. His officials consulted with members of the refugee lobby, including the prominent lawyer David Manne, about being part of a broader regional arrangement that had the approval of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).</p>
<p>Evans and his department worked on an offshore deal that would meet with the approval of Australian stakeholders, neighbouring countries, and the UNHCR. But meanwhile, a small group of ministers focused on East Timor. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-refugee-law-expert-on-a-week-of-reckless-rhetoric-and-a-new-way-to-process-asylum-seeker-claims-111756">A refugee law expert on a week of 'reckless' rhetoric and a new way to process asylum seeker claims</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The former Victorian premier, Steve Bracks, was approached at an airport and asked to sound out the East Timorese government about a processing centre. Bracks reported back that Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao was interested, but he would need some time to win support within his government. </p>
<p>Gusmao wanted negotiations to be done through the president, Jose Ramos Horta. This process was in train when Kevin Rudd was overthrown as prime minister on June 24, 2010.</p>
<p>In a speech to the Lowy Institute on July 5, the new prime minister, Gillard, announced she had discussed with Horta the possibility of establishing a regional processing centre in East Timor. But in going public, she had pre-empted the internal East Timorese process. Gusmao distanced himself from the plan and it quickly fizzled.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the public servants who had been working on the multilateral solution were left scratching their heads. One official told me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have no idea where [East Timor] sprang from. </p>
<p>We were working on arrangements … and one of the really difficult things was thought bubbles kept coming from funny quarters and then you’d have the media onto it, laughing at it or making a joke of it.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Failed Malaysia initiative</h2>
<p>After the 2010 election, the new immigration minister <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-25/malaysia-signs-refugee-deal/2809512">Chris Bowen secured</a> an offshore processing arrangement with Malaysia. Immigration Department officials had encouraged Bowen to bring refugee stakeholders and the UNCHR on board. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/refugees-are-integrating-just-fine-in-regional-australia-101188">Refugees are integrating just fine in regional Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But Bowen, who was facing immense political pressure from opposition leader Tony Abbott, preferred to deal unilaterally with his Malaysian counterpart, Hishamuddin Hussein, with whom he had developed a strong rapport.</p>
<p>Hours before the first 16 asylum seekers were due to be transported to Malaysia, Manne <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/malaysia-solution-on-hold-20110807-1ihvv.html">obtained an injunction</a> against their removal from Australia, pending a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/refugee-to-challenge-malaysia-deal-in-court-20110616-1g63r.html">challenge to the legality</a> of the government’s agreement with Malaysia. </p>
<p>In September 2011, the High Court decided in a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-31/high-court-rules-on-asylum-seeker-challenge/2864218">six-to-one decision</a> that the Malaysia agreement contravened the Migration Act because the refugees would not be given the protection required by the Australian legislation.</p>
<p>According to a key player, the High Court ruling was the product of a profound failure of process: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the government did a very bad job at … going to the organisations who would be part of any solution. And, instead, pissed them off so comprehensively they went to the High Court.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robert-manne-how-we-came-to-be-so-cruel-to-asylum-seekers-67542">Robert Manne: How we came to be so cruel to asylum seekers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This account is rejected by David Manne, who says the decision to take the Malaysia agreement to the High Court was not linked to politics and was a response to a request for legal representation from asylum seekers on Christmas Island.</p>
<p>After the failure of the Malaysia initiative, the Gillard government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gillard-moves-swiftly-on-nauru-option-20120814-246ai.html">hurriedly reopened</a> the Nauru and Manus Island processing centres. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WmxKK2hySRA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In 2013, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott debate about asylum seeker policy, and the ‘PNG solution’.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When Rudd replaced Gillard in June 2013, he <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-asylum-in-australia-for-those-arriving-by-boat-rudd-16238">announced</a> that no one who arrived by boat would ever be settled in Australia. The boats slowed, but it was the institution of boat turnbacks under the Abbott government’s Operation Sovereign Borders that stopped them altogether.</p>
<p>The consequences of the Rudd and Gillard governments’ blundered handling of asylum seeker policy were considerable. Indonesia and East Timor were unnecessarily offended, the government’s political fortunes suffered and, most significantly, asylum seekers were again subjected to processing on Nauru and Manus Island.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-manus-theatre-delivers-home-truths-that-cant-be-dodged-113352">In Manus, theatre delivers home truths that can't be dodged</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is conceivable that Manus and Nauru would have remained closed and Operation Sovereign Borders rendered unnecessary had the Rudd and Gillard governments heeded the advice of the Immigration Department to bring key refugee stakeholders and UNHCR on board into the process. </p>
<p>The institution of rigorous decision-making processes will not guarantee Scott Morrison’s success, but they could help him avoid many of the pitfalls that contributed to the downfall of the Rudd and Gillard governments.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Carolyn Holbrook is presenting a talk on this topic at the Australian Policy and History ‘History and the Hill’ Conference at Deakin University on Thursday, June 13</em></p>
<p><em>This story has been amended to include a response from David Manne.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Holbrook receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is the Director of Australian Policy and History. </span></em></p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison can learn from the pitfalls that contributed to the downfall of the Rudd and Gillard governments.Carolyn Holbrook, ARC DECRA Fellow at Deakin University, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173792019-05-19T06:06:49Z2019-05-19T06:06:49ZAbbott’s loss in Warringah shows voters rejecting an out-of-touch candidate and a nasty style of politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275269/original/file-20190519-69169-12w6jqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott, with wife Margie, concedes defeat in Warringah.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On election night 2019, as Australia voted to return the Liberal-National Party government of Scott Morrison, one seat defied the trend – Warringah. Tony Abbott, former prime minster, Howard-era minister, pugilist and would-be priest, had lost this Liberal heartland seat to barrister and former Olympic skier Zali Steggall.</p>
<p>Running from North Sydney to Manly, up to Dee Why and then inland to Forestville, Warringah is a long-held conservative seat, never having been won by Labor or independents in its 97-year history.</p>
<p>Yet, Abbott went into the election as something of an underdog. The key issues for Steggall, climate change and refugees, were both issues that had agitated the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/kerryn-phelps-wins-wentworth-by-election-in-historic-result/10400270">electors of Wentworth</a> seven months earlier, when independent Kerryn Phelps won the seat of former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/">byelection</a> caused by his resignation from parliament.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-election-but-abbott-loses-warringah-plus-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-116804">Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong</a>
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<p>That resignation, brought on by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton creating a leadership challenge that would eventually fall to Scott Morrison, had created bitter acrimony in Liberal ranks. Abbott was blamed for destabilising the party since losing the prime ministership himself in the lead up to the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Now the chickens were coming home to roost. Left-wing activist group GetUp! and independent campaigners helped promote Steggall as a viable conservative-leaning independent candidate. GetUp! itself was accused of using <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/steggall-campaign-in-secret-getup-plot/news-story/8c309d06e6188ccea1885cbee3ecdda2">Steggall as a front</a> for its activities.</p>
<p>A conservative campaign was also initiated, under the name <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/captain-getup-conservative-groups-satirical-superhero-debuts-to-ridicule">Captain GetUp</a>, trying to suggest that GetUp! was just a front for Labor, but this failed to spark anything more than derision among watchers of the Captain’s YouTube campaign.</p>
<p>While Abbott also attempted to use YouTube, his fascination in one clip of a roadside library (free, covered book boxes, designed to pass on “good reads”) simply suggested he was out-of-touch with what was going on in his electorate, and built upon the picture of a politician out of step with his voters - as had previously been seen in the same sex marriage plebiscite and on climate change.</p>
<p>This sense of being out of touch, perhaps most strongly exhibited by Abbott’s continued insistence that he would come back to lead the Liberal Party if he was asked to, even when Liberal voters were <a href="https://www.essentialvision.com.au/best-leader-liberal-party-2">strongly opposed</a> to this , propelled Steggall’s attempt to wrest the seat from Abbott.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275270/original/file-20190519-69182-tr2ko2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Independent Zali Steggall celebrates winning Warringah from former prime minister, Tony Abbott.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dylan Coker</span></span>
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<p>Abbott’s own preselection, which might have been thought uncontroversial, was a scene of anger and dismay. Although he won <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/tony-abbott-suffers-monumental-scare/news-story/224166f1c96824cf7632ef01a982c496">68% of the votes</a> to endorse him, this also implies that even party members were losing patience with his activities within the party.</p>
<p>However, the campaign itself has been spiteful and angry, with accusations being levelled at both sides of <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/05/18/the-campaign-warringah/15581016008150">abuse and personal nastiness</a>. This has included defacing of posters, personal abuse at both candidates, opposing campaigners dogging other candidates as they meet and greet, and particularly of the Abbott campaign, the use of <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/lib-stabbed-vandalism-how-the-left-hate-in-warringah/news-story/23dad63bcecef6e333d2ec5762f1882d">media surrogates</a> to promote an anti-Steggall message.</p>
<p>The result in Warringah must be seen as a local phenomenon, especially when taken against the backdrop of the general election and the failure of some other high profile campaigns.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/key-challenges-for-the-re-elected-coalition-government-our-experts-respond-117325">Key challenges for the re-elected Coalition government: our experts respond</a>
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<p>The GetUp! Campaign in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson would appear to have had limited effect, considering that Dutton had a 2% swing towards him. Several high-profile candidates who it was thought would struggle to retain their seats (George Christensen in Dawson, and Barnaby Joyce in New England) recorded double-digit swings towards them, suggesting their voters may or may not approve of their personal behaviour, but they do endorse the direction of their party.</p>
<p>This again emphasises the very localised nature of Abbott’s defeat. Far from a repudiation of Liberal values, it has been the repudiation of one individual’s form of political action. Abbott has been a polarising figure, and has been accused of some low politics in the past, although he would not be the only politician who that accusation has been levelled against.</p>
<p>It might then be argued the Australian parliament has lost one of its more colourful characters, but he is also the last of the characters from that 11 year period of Australian political life that saw five prime ministers dispatched, not at an election but while still in office.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison can at least look forward to not having to watch out for his predecessors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stewart Jackson has received funding from Department of Finance APPD program. He is a former National Convenor of the Australian Greens, between 2003-2005. </span></em></p>The result in Warringah can be seen as being fought on local issues, where the former prime minister had come to be out of step with his constituents.Stewart Jackson, Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1166722019-05-17T03:16:45Z2019-05-17T03:16:45ZGetUp’s brand of in-your-face activism is winning elections – and making enemies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274838/original/file-20190516-69209-1msxvvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GetUp! protesters outside the second leaders' debate in Adelaide earlier this month.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It can be hard for a political cause to get noticed in a jaded world awash with information, but conspiracy theories can go a long way. </p>
<p>This could help explain the motivations of the lobbying group Advance Australia (AA) in this election campaign. Advance Australia was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/what-is-advance-australia/10520122">founded late last year</a> as a conservative antidote to the left-leaning GetUp and has attracted prominent business <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/what-is-advance-australia/10520122">leaders</a> as financial backers. </p>
<p>Liberal luminaries like Eric Abetz have long been wary of GetUp, viewing it as an arm of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/win-for-getup-as-electoral-commission-rules-it-s-not-formally-linked-to-labor-or-the-greens-20190218-p50ymk.html">Labor</a> and the Greens (despite the fact the Australian Electoral Commission <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/win-for-getup-as-electoral-commission-rules-it-s-not-formally-linked-to-labor-or-the-greens-20190218-p50ymk.html">has ruled</a> the group is independent of any political party). </p>
<p>Following GetUp’s success in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-04/election-2016-finger-pointing-begins-liberal-losses-tasmania/7565690">unseating Liberal Bass MP Andrew Nikolic</a> in the 2016 election, these conservative factions are now annoyed by the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-getup-poll-shows-crash-in-support-for-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20190504-p51k3q.html">group’s aggressive campaigning</a> against Tony Abbott in Warringah in this campaign. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-style-lobbying-how-getup-channels-australians-voices-into-politics-60625">New style lobbying: how GetUp! channels Australians' voices into politics</a>
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<p>This is where the conspiracy theories come in. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UP8PXAA9tE&t=15s">video</a> released by Advance Australia in April, GetUp is “imposing its secret agenda on Australia and seeking to control the Australian way of life”. It “flies under the radar” and is “hoodwinking well-meaning Australians into implementing their radical agenda”. </p>
<p>The video also warns that GetUp is linked to “a foreign network of left-wing activist groups” known as OPEN, which is authoritarian (“reminiscent of the old-style Soviet Union”) but somehow also “globalist”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Advance Australia video aimed at GetUp.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This hissy-fit of hyperbole prevents Advance Australia from seeing what stares the group in the face. GetUp is none of those things. Rather, the organisation gives ordinary people a way to get involved in political life at the grassroots level – a commonplace phenomenon in American politics that is only possible in Australia outside our more dominant party structures.</p>
<h2>GetUp’s growth and influence</h2>
<p>GetUp has emerged as a target in this campaign because of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-style-lobbying-how-getup-channels-australians-voices-into-politics-60625">increasing influence</a> as a mobiliser of this sort of grassroots political participation. </p>
<p>GetUp’s mission is to “<a href="https://www.getup.org.au/about/">bring participation back into our democracy</a>” through various online and offline activities such as protests, vigils, door-knocking campaigns and donation drives – a strategy modelled on the American grassroots political group MoveOn. Its signature campaign was its push for marriage equality in Australia, with this powerful <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBd-UCwVAY">video</a> garnering more than 16 million views on YouTube.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">GetUp marriage equality campaign video.</span></figcaption>
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<p>GetUp now boasts <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/getup-and-advance-australia-go-head-to-head-20190418-p51fb3">more than 1 million members</a> and aims to make <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/">1 million phone calls</a> in target electorates during this campaign – often organised through hundreds of “calling parties” in homes across Australia – and to knock on countless doors in key marginal seats.</p>
<p>It is not formally aligned with Labor or the Greens, but it certainly leans left: <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/#how-we-win">on its website</a>, it vows to kick out the “hard right MPs” who it says have:</p>
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<p>…wrecked progressive policies and stifled public debate on climate change, refugees, multiculturalism, economics and democratic participation.</p>
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<p>Advance Australia is small by comparison, <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/getup-and-advance-australia-go-head-to-head-20190418-p51fb3">with just 32,000 members</a>. Its leader, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-gerard-benedet-the-man-who-could-save-conservatives-or-take-them-down-with-him-20190315-p514l1.html">Gerard Benedet</a>, has noted how previous attempts at building a conservative grassroots movement in Australia have failed, but Advance Australia is <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/getup-faces-conservative-challenger-advance-australia/news-story/eb0e92c31377a790ea8902d4bfb08f63">aiming to be different</a>. </p>
<p>However, the group’s awkward campaign tactics, which include <a href="https://junkee.com/captain-getup-please-stop/202047">a widely mocked anti-GetUp superhero figure</a> and reliance on wealthy backers instead of small donations, show it still has a long way to go in adopting a participatory model.</p>
<h2>The origins of grassroots campaigning</h2>
<p>The rise of GetUp and other similar grassroots campaigns being run by independents – such as Zali Steggall’s “<a href="https://www.voicesofwarringah.org.au/">Voices For Warringah</a>” campaign and the “<a href="https://voicesforindi.com/">Voices For Indi</a>” campaigns of first Cathy McGowan and now Helen Haines – is linked in part with early American ideals of participatory democracy, anti-politics, and the power of the internet. </p>
<p>Beginning in the 1980s, American writers such as Steven Levy, Howard Rheingold, Bruce Sterling and a bevy of followers <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=XdiSDQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=rolfe+reinventing+populist+rhetoric&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj5sL6MmpfiAhVVSX0KHRq5CP8Q6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=rolfe%20reinventing%20populist%20rhetoric&f=false">championed</a> the internet as a way of helping empower those at the bottom against political elites. They linked the digital era to the sentimentalised American ideal of populist anti-politics and romanticised the digital-savvy outsiders who harnessed the power of grassroots democracy to ride into office and clean up Washington DC.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-slacktivism-we-dismiss-the-power-of-politics-online-at-our-peril-79500">More than 'slacktivism': we dismiss the power of politics online at our peril</a>
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<p>One of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/i-dont-blame-the-scream-speech-howard-dean-on-the-first-internet-campaign/2018/01/02/a8995c46-dc37-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.81b268add669">first notable internet campaigns</a> was Howard Dean’s presidential run in 2004, which adopted the digital innovations and political advice of MoveOn.</p>
<p>Barack Obama’s presidential campaign of 2008 then further adapted the Dean <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=mayTrDHJVUkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Kreiss,+D.+(2012).+Taking+Our+Country+Back:+The+Crafting+of+Networked+Politics+from+Howard+Dean+to+Barack+Obama&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj10YrXmpfiAhXVbSsKHZKTDSYQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=K">model</a> by creating a movement hinting at direct democracy and melding an online and offline grassroots organisational strategy through <a href="https://www.computerworld.com/article/2534052/my-barackobama-com-social-network-stays-online-after-election.html">MyBarackObama</a>, the campaign’s social network. This included more than 200,000 events, such as barbecues and parties, for the volunteers who were door-knocking and telephone canvassing for votes and donations.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">MoveOn’s “Obama in 30 Seconds” campaign, inviting everyday people to make political ads for Obama.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The ALP hoped for similar success by importing senior American <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/rules-for-radicals-comes-to-carrum/">personnel</a> from the 2012 Obama campaign to help run grassroots strategy for its 2014 Victorian state <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/30/victorian-labor-says-its-victory-has-revolutionised-politics?CMP=soc_567">election</a> campaign. It also imported Blue State Digital, a strategy and technology firm that has been important to Democrats since 2005 and <a href="https://www.bluestatedigital.com/our-work/obama-for-america-2008/">managed Obama’s digital campaign in 2008</a>, to <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-we-can-will-imported-talent-get-labor-over-the-line-16563">aid its less-successful 2013 federal campaign</a>. </p>
<p>These efforts, however, were confined to party and union members, not the broader grassroots base now being reached by GetUp.</p>
<p>Similarly in 2013, the Republican-aligned digital strategy firms <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181204142645/http://www.imge.com/australia/">IMGE</a> and <a href="https://enga.ge/the-liberal-party-of-australia-designed-for-victory/">Engage</a> were brought in to help the Liberal Party with digital fundraising and data-mining techniques. These innovations, though, also did not embrace participatory campaigning outside party members.</p>
<h2>Independents also embracing digital campaigning</h2>
<p>In this year’s campaign, independents like Steggall and Haines are also enthusiastically embracing community-based campaigning. </p>
<p>Both candidates, for instance, rely on NationBuilder, a Los Angeles-based software company, to create platforms for their online donations and communications efforts and offline activities for their volunteers. Since 2013, NationBuilder has also been the online platform of choice for ALP, Greens and the Australian Council of Trade Union <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/05/07/unions-labor-and-greens-embrace-web-platform-with-gop-ties/">campaigns</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-so-grassroots-how-the-snowflake-model-is-transforming-political-campaigns-54166">Not so grassroots: how the snowflake model is transforming political campaigns</a>
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<p>Like McGowan and Haines, Steggall campaigns as a cleanskin unsoiled by party politics, with a “<a href="https://www.voicesofwarringah.org.au/about_us">non-partisan community group</a>” aiming to “bridge the gap between people and politics”. This anti-politics mantra contrasts with Abbott, who is viewed by many as one of the people responsible for Australians’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australians-dont-trust-politicians-heres-one-reason-why-116259">widespread distrust and disillusionment with government</a>. </p>
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<p>This distrust is a problem for the major parties, but a boon to GetUp and the independents, who are projected to do well in this election. If the next government cannot counter such feelings among voters, these influential outsiders will continue to flourish in the foreseeable future with the help of digital outreach and the flush of excitement in ordinary citizens who want change, whatever that means to them.</p>
<p>Maybe even Advance Australia will start to harness this grassroots power on the conservative side, minus the conspiracy theories.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>GetUp has notched many political victories since launching in 2005. Now, independents and conservatives are trying to replicate its approach to grassroots political participation.Mark Rolfe, Honorary associate, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170362019-05-13T12:16:30Z2019-05-13T12:16:30ZView from The Hill: ‘Soft’ voters in Warringah focus groups expect Tony Abbott win<p>Just two elections ago Tony Abbott was headed for the prime ministership. Now he’s desperately trying to survive in his own seat.</p>
<p>A leader deposed by his party, turned on by Liberal voters in his own heartland, bruised and battle-scarred, Abbott is in one of the most vitriolic contests of this campaign.</p>
<p>His main opponent, former winter Olympian Zali Steggall, is among several high-profile independents challenging in Coalition seats.</p>
<p>Warringah takes in areas of Sydney’s north shore and northern beaches. Abbott, its occupant since 1994, has a margin of 11.1%. He’s been under pressure in a couple of previous elections but is now being pursued by posses of angry locals, some upset over his views on same-sex marriage and his “spoiler” role within the Liberal party, and highly-organised external activists, notably GetUp, mobilising particularly around climate change.</p>
<p>He’s been frenetically working the electorate for months in a massive fight-back, locally focused (think a tunnel and toilets), and supporters are trooping into the seat for these last days.</p>
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<p>On Monday John Howard (who in 2007 lost his own seat and the election) was lending a hand. Warringah voters were “not the big end of town,” the former prime minister said. “Warringah is full people who’ve worked hard, they’ve done a bit better, they’ve accumulated a bit and they don’t want it taken away through higher tax by Mr Shorten.”</p>
<p>The Liberals, attempting to leap the barrier of anti-Abbott feeling, have been hammering the point that a vote for Steggall would be a vote for a Shorten government.</p>
<p>The University of Canberra’s <a href="https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/">Democracy 2025</a> project commissioned two rounds of focus groups in Warringah, done by Landscape Research. The first was in February. The second round, on Wednesday and Thursday last week, included four groups totalling 34 “soft” voters (people who had not decided definitely who they’d vote for). Half had participated in the February round.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-warringah-votes-abbotts-challenger-has-yet-to-penetrate-the-streets-112712">Grattan on Friday: Warringah Votes – Abbott's challenger has yet to
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<p>It is important to stress focus group research is not predictive – rather it taps into attitudes.</p>
<p>Both the older and younger voters believe Abbott will win, even if they aren’t leaning towards voting for him. As a young first-time voter put it: “It’s the demographics of the area”. A middle-aged self-employed woman from Allambie Heights said: “People want certainty and security. They say they want change but they’re resistant”.</p>
<p>In the research’s February round, many participants hadn’t even heard of Steggall. By last week – unsurprisingly given the rash of publicity – everybody had, although some knew little detail about her.</p>
<p>“While many are open to the idea of voting for a strong independent, and see her as a welcome choice standing against Tony Abbott, she does not appear to have done enough to persuade them fully over to her side, yet,” the moderator’s report says.</p>
<p>“There is no doubt she is a serious challenger, and they like having a serious contest to ‘shake things up a bit’, but soft voters acknowledge that Tony Abbott has stepped up to the challenge.</p>
<p>"For many his longevity as a tireless worker for the community - for example, volunteer firefighting, lifesaving - is a strong counter in electoral currency to his reputation for outmoded views on homosexuals and climate change”.</p>
<p>For some of these soft voters, the unknowns about Steggall are seeing them shift to Abbott. A 23-year-old female student teacher from Frenchs Forest was “unsure about Zali”. A female disability contract worker in her 30s from Brookvale thought it better to “keep with what you know.”</p>
<p>Steggall’s elite sporting background is seen as holding her in good stead, shown in her “determination and drive”. She’s viewed as “learning quickly”, although some campaign stumbles have also been noted.</p>
<p>A 59-year-old man from North Balgowlah observed Steggall had done an “astute swivel”, with “the statement that she’d provide ‘confidence’ to the Coalition [if there was a minority government]. It’s providing confidence so that, as a Liberal person, you can get rid of Tony Abbott but still support the Coalition”.</p>
<p>But Steggall’s pushing of climate change as her primary policy, with the apparent lack of a fully fleshed-out platform, concerns some soft voters, including those open to voting for an independent.</p>
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<p>“The only thing I’ve heard from her campaign is the environment - other than that, nothing,” said a civil engineer in his 30s from Queenscliff; a Cromer Heights middle-aged woman at home questioned why Steggall was running now. “If she’s such a local, and so for our electorate, where has she been all this time?”.</p>
<p>Some have also found her wanting even on her central issue. A 33-year-old business development manager from Manly said he “liked her at first” but then thought she was hypocritical when she was “jumping on the electric vehicle bandwagon” while driving a “massive SUV”, which she said she needed to ferry her children.</p>
<p>“The challenge for Steggall at this point in the campaign is that those who have not already decided definitely to vote for her are wavering, and they are not hearing anything more than an ‘I’m not Abbott, I support climate change action’ message,” the research report says.</p>
<p>“While the prospect of a centrist independent candidate was initially appealing, after more consideration over the past few months, some soft voters who were leaning towards voting for Steggall have changed their mind.”</p>
<p>“I was voting more for an independent whereas now I think I need to put down either a Labor or a Liberal candidate because they will have more sway in actually saying something for our electorate,” said the Allambie Heights woman.</p>
<p>Abbott is seen as experienced, a known quantity, widely recognised for his community service, even if people don’t agree with him on some key issues.</p>
<p>He is also regarded by some of these voters to have made positive moves to recognise the electorate’s views on same-sex marriage and climate change. “I think he’s trying to represent everyone a bit more”, the business development manager said. “I think it shows growth for him.”</p>
<p>But others still see climate as Abbott’s Achilles heel. “He continues to struggle to explain his position on climate change. He has an instinct that he doesn’t quite believe it. But he can’t explain what he’s done in the past or what he would do. […] By flip-flopping about, it is very un-Tony Abbott, a weakness,” said the North Balgowlah man.</p>
<p>Being seen in the media as fighting for his survival is regarded as helpful for Abbott. “That generates talk around his supporters and helps him get re-elected,” said a 41-year-old firefighter from Dee Why.</p>
<p>In February, many of the soft voters were more exercised by Abbott’s defying the electorate on same-sex marriage than they were about his climate change position. Now, there is greater attention by some on his climate views. “Some people don’t like Tony because of that,” said a retired Australia Post manager from Manly Vale.</p>
<p>“While believing it important, these Warringah voters also see the climate change discussions as somewhat more of a political debate than about practical environmental action,” the research report says.</p>
<p>“As well, they feel bombarded with the issue to the point of drowning out everything else of importance to them, and they feel like they can’t express their views.”</p>
<p>“Yes, climate change is important, but why is it just hammered into us non-stop?” said a Dee Why woman who works part time in hospitality.</p>
<p>A challenge for Steggall is that her opposition to Labor policies on franking credits and negative gearing that are unpopular with soft voters here hasn’t cut through. The former Australia Post manager, a self-funded retiree who’d been a lifelong Labor voter, said: “I am leaning towards Tony Abbott because I am against the franking credit [changes]”.</p>
<p>As well as the environment (as distinct from “climate change”), local issues for these voters include the northern beaches tunnel (which Abbott has talked about constantly), traffic congestion generally, and housing affordability.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/against-the-odds-scott-morrison-wants-to-be-returned-as-prime-minister-but-who-the-bloody-hell-is-he-116732">Against the odds, Scott Morrison wants to be returned as prime minister. But who the bloody hell is he?</a>
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<p>Predictably, given the nature of this electorate, Scott Morrison has an edge over Bill Shorten as more trusted to lead the country, mainly because of the Liberals’ perceived better economic credentials and a sense of personal strength they don’t see in Shorten.</p>
<p>Older voters mention his “track record” in immigration and his personal character. “I feel he’ll manage the budget better” (retired policeman from North Curl Curl). “[I trust his] moral values and he’s not in it for his own ego” (retired female public servant from Manly). A 74-year-old woman from Forestville said: “One of his policies is to slow down immigration and I also believe in that”.</p>
<p>Younger voters agree Morrison’s economic credentials are stronger and some are prepared to put aside their personal desire for a more compassionate PM for the sake of the country’s economic interests. “Personally, I’d pick Bill Shorten, but for the nation I’d pick Scott Morrison, mainly for the economy”, said the first-time voter, an 18-year-old school leaver from Manly who’s working as a labourer during a gap year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-six-years-as-opposition-leader-history-beckons-bill-shorten-will-the-drovers-dog-have-its-day-115490">After six years as opposition leader, history beckons Bill Shorten. Will the 'drover's dog' have its day?</a>
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<p>But mostly in making their election decisions, these voters’ eyes are on the candidates in their own backyard.</p>
<p>“There is no doubt that having an accomplished independent challenging a 25-year incumbent has given the electorate something to think about. But questions remain for soft voters around Steggall,” the research report concludes.</p>
<p>“They are looking for more than they perceive she is offering (a positive stance on climate change and that she is not Tony Abbott).</p>
<p>"They also perceive that there could a potential backlash against the bitterness and vitriol of the anti-Abbott movement (even if not her doing) which may work against her.</p>
<p>"Warringah soft voters are quietly determined they will make up their own minds, in their own time, and not be bullied into voting a certain way, by either the Abbott or Steggall camps, or anyone else.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the research’s February round, many participants hadn’t heard of Steggall. By last week – unsurprisingly given the rash of publicity – everybody had, although some knew little detail about her.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149712019-04-08T20:08:33Z2019-04-08T20:08:33ZIn Australia, climate policy battles are endlessly reheated<p><em>This article is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/coalition-record-2019-69102">series</a> examining the Coalition government’s record on key issues while in power and what Labor is promising if it wins the 2019 federal election.</em></p>
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<p>It might feel like the past decade of climate policy wars has led us into uncharted political waters. But the truth is, we’ve been sailing around in circles for much longer than that.</p>
<p>The situation in the late 1990s bore an uncanny resemblance to today: a Liberal-led government; a prime minister who clearly favours economic imperatives over environmental ones; emerging internal splits between hardline Liberal MPs and those keen to see stronger climate action; and a Labor party trying to figure out how ambitious it can be without being labelled as loony tree-huggers.</p>
<p>The striking parallels between now and two decades ago tell us something about what to expect in the months ahead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-years-of-backflips-over-emissions-trading-leave-climate-policy-in-the-lurch-69641">Ten years of backflips over emissions trading leave climate policy in the lurch</a>
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<p>After a brief flirtation with progressive climate policy in the 1990 federal election, the Liberals had, by the final years of the 20th century, become adamant opponents of climate action.</p>
<p>In March 1996, John Howard had come to power just as international climate negotiations were heating up. In his opinion, even signing the United Nations climate convention in Rio in 1992 had been a mistake. He expended considerable effort trying to secure a favourable deal for Australia at the crunch Kyoto negotiations in 1997.</p>
<p>Australia got a very generous deal indeed (and is still talking about <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-counting-on-cooking-the-books-to-meet-its-climate-targets-110768">banking the credit</a> to count towards its Paris target), and Howard was able to keep a lid on climate concerns until 2006. But it was too little, too late, and in 2007 his party began a six-year exile from government as Rudd, then Gillard, then Rudd took the climate policy helm, with acrimonious results. </p>
<p>When Tony Abbott swept to power in 2013, his first act was to <a href="https://theconversation.com/axing-the-climate-commission-splits-australians-from-science-18425">abolish the Labor-appointed Climate Commission</a>, which resurrected itself as the independent <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council</a>. Next, he delivered his signature election campaign promise: to <a href="https://theconversation.com/obituary-australias-carbon-price-29217">axe the hated carbon tax</a> (despite his chief of staff Peta Credlin’s <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/carbon-tax-just-brutal-politics-credlin">later admission</a> that the tax wasn’t, of course, actually a tax).</p>
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<p>Abbott also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-reduced-renewable-energy-target-affect-investment-41505">reduced the renewable energy target</a>, and sought (unsuccessfully) to <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-g20-agenda-climate-still-the-elephant-in-the-room-32810">keep climate change off the agenda</a> at the 2014 G20 summit in Brisbane.</p>
<p>Abbott and his environment minister Greg Hunt did preside over some policy offerings – most notably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/direct-action-not-giving-us-bang-for-our-buck-on-climate-change-59308">Direct Action</a> platform, with the A$2.55 billion <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-emissions-reduction-fund-is-almost-empty-it-shouldnt-be-refilled-92283">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> at its heart, dishing out public money for carbon-reduction projects. The pair also announced an emissions reduction target of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030</a>, which Australia took as its formal pledge to the crucial 2015 Paris climate talks.</p>
<p>But by the time nations convened in Paris, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-leader-sets-his-sights-low-in-opening-conference-gambit-51542">Malcolm Turnbull was in the hot seat</a>, having toppled Abbott a few months earlier. Many observers hoped he would take strong action on climate; in 2010 he had <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqZTh7HT180">enthused</a> about the prospect of Australia going carbon-neutral. But the hoped-for successor to the carbon price never materialised, as Turnbull came under sustained attack from detractors within both his own party and the Nationals.</p>
<p>Then, in September 2016, a thunderbolt (or rather, a fateful thunderstorm). South Australia’s entire electricity grid was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-29/worsening-conditions-cause-more-blackouts-across-sa/7887020">knocked out by freak weather</a>, plunging the state into blackout, and the state government into a vicious tussle with Canberra. The dispute, embodied by SA Premier Jay Weatherill’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2017/mar/16/jay-weatherill-gives-josh-frydenberg-a-serve-at-bizarre-media-conference-video">infamous altercation</a> with the federal energy minister Josh Frydenberg, spilled over into a wider ideological conflict about renewable energy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-since-the-sa-blackout-whos-winning-the-high-wattage-power-play-84416">A year since the SA blackout, who's winning the high-wattage power play?</a>
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<p>With tempers fraying on all sides, and still no economy-wide emissions policy in place, business began to agitate for increasingly elusive investment certainty (although they had played dead or applauded when Gillard’s carbon price was under attack). </p>
<p>In an era of policy on the run, things accelerated to a sprinter’s pace. Frydenberg suggested an emissions intensity scheme might be looked at. Forty-eight hours later it was <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-government-rules-out-an-emissions-intensity-scheme-70039">dead and buried</a>.</p>
<p>Turnbull commissioned Chief Scientist Alan Finkel to produce a report, which included the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-finkel-review-at-a-glance-79177">recommendation for a Clean Energy Target</a>, prompting it to be vetoed in short order by the government’s backbench. </p>
<p>Within three months Frydenberg hurriedly put together the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee (NEG)</a>, which focused on both reliability and emissions reduction in the electricity sector. The policy gained support from exhausted business and NGOs, but not from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">Monash Forum</a> of Tony Abbott and cohorts, who preferred the sound of state-funded coal instead. And then, in August 2018, the NEG was torpedoed, along with Turnbull’s premiership.</p>
<p>The next man to move into the Lodge, Scott Morrison, was previously best known in climate circles for waving a lump of coal (kindly provided, with lacquer to prevent smudging, by the Minerals Council of Australia) in parliament. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pro-coal-monash-forum-may-do-little-but-blacken-the-name-of-a-revered-australian-94329">The pro-coal 'Monash Forum' may do little but blacken the name of a revered Australian</a>
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<p>Morrison’s problems haven’t eased. His energy minister Angus Taylor and environment minister Melissa Price have each come under attack for their apparent lack of climate policy ambition, and Barnaby Joyce and a select few fellow Nationals recently endangered the fragile truce over not mentioning the coal.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Labor, with one eye on the Green vote and another on Liberal voters appalled by the lack of action on climate change, are trying to <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-a-decent-menu-but-missing-the-main-course-114606">slip between Scylla and Charybdis</a>.</p>
<h2>Shorten’s offering</h2>
<p>While Labor has decided not to make use of a Kyoto-era loophole (taking credit for reduced land-clearing), its newly released climate policy platform makes no mention of keeping fossil fuels in the ground, dodges the thorny issue of the Adani coalmine, and has almost nothing to say on how to pay the now-inevitable costs of climate adaptation.</p>
<p>What will the minor parties say? Labor’s policy is nowhere near enough to placate the Greens’ leadership, but then the goal for Labor is of course to peel away the Greens support – or at least reduce the haemorrhaging, while perhaps picking up the votes of disillusioned Liberals.</p>
<p>Overall, as Nicky Ison has <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-a-decent-menu-but-missing-the-main-course-114606">already pointed out on The Conversation</a>, Labor has missed an “opportunity to put Australians’ health and well-being at the centre of the climate crisis and redress historical injustices by actively supporting Aboriginal and other vulnerable communities like Borroloola to benefit from climate action”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-a-decent-menu-but-missing-the-main-course-114606">Labor's climate policy: a decent menu, but missing the main course</a>
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<p>And so the prevailing political winds have blown us more or less back to where we were in 1997: the Liberals fighting among themselves, business despairing, and Labor being cautious. </p>
<p>But in another sense, of course, our situation is far worse. Not only has a culture war broken out, but the four hottest years in the world have happened in the past five, the Great Barrier Reef is suffering, and the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-off-the-charts-as-australia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html">Bureau of Meteorology’s purple</a> will be getting more of a workout.</p>
<p>We’ve spent two decades digging a deeper hole for ourselves. It’s still not clear when or how we can climb out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114971/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We’ve been here before. In fact we’ve been going round in circles on climate policy for decades, while the temperature (of the debate, as well as the planet) climbs ever higher.Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1127122019-02-28T10:34:57Z2019-02-28T10:34:57ZGrattan on Friday: Warringah Votes – Abbott’s challenger has yet to
‘penetrate the streets’<p>Zali Steggall is a poster person for a batch of high-profile
centre-right independents contesting seats in the May election. </p>
<p>Her bid to oust Tony Abbott from his Liberal heartland Sydney seat of Warringah is receiving national attention and the former prime minister is clearly feeling under pressure.</p>
<p>But, according to qualitative research in the seat this week, Steggall - former Olympian, lawyer, local - is yet to embed herself in the minds of those voters who are potentially willing to turn against Abbott.</p>
<p>The focus groups, sponsored by the University of Canberra’s <a href="https://www.democracy2025.gov.au/">Democracy 2025</a> project and conducted by Landscape Research, found mixed feelings about Abbott, who has held the northern beaches seat since 1994, but uncertainty about alternatives.</p>
<p>The four groups, each of seven to nine “soft” voters (who haven’t made up their minds) drawn from across the electorate, were held on Monday and Tuesday. This research is not predictive but taps into general attitudes.</p>
<p>Federal politics isn’t top of mind for these Warringah residents, many of whom display conservative views on economics while being socially progressive (for example, disdaining the use of border security as a political weapon).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-tony-abbott-and-zali-steggall-on-warringah-votes-112702">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall on Warringah votes</a>
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<p>Their concerns focus more on infrastructure, particularly roads and traffic congestion, population growth, environmental concerns on the northern beaches and housing affordability for their children.</p>
<p>Older voters are more engaged, more readily able to discuss current issues in federal politics and more concerned with the impact on their area. Younger voters have largely tuned out, feeling powerless.</p>
<p>Interestingly, in view of Steggall’s very strong pitch on climate change, that issue barely rates a mention, with people’s environmental concerns more on the loss of farmland to mining, the decline of the Murray Darling Basin, and the impact on the local beaches of population growth in the longer term.</p>
<p>Older Warringah voters trust Scott Morrison more than Bill Shorten to run the country. But for quite a few this is grudging. Morrison is the “least worst” option – they don’t trust him that much, but they trust Shorten less.</p>
<p>Younger people are divided as to which leader they trust more. Shorten is regarded as having the more progressive and inclusive policy agenda. Those younger voters who trust Morrison more see him as more likeable and sympathetic and a “straight shooter” as well as having stronger economic credentials.</p>
<p>But there is some concern among both older and younger voters about Morrison’s religious beliefs, and their possible influence on policy and pushing the Liberal Party to the right. “Morrison’s too much of a radical Christian, a bit of a loose cannon,” an older woman says.</p>
<p>Some voters see Shorten’s leadership position as more stable than
Morrison’s (suggesting they haven’t tuned into the Liberals’ new rule that a Liberal PM winning an election would see out the term).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/last-chance-tickets-see-michelle-grattan-tonight-in-melbourne-112506">Last chance tickets: see Michelle Grattan tonight in Melbourne</a>
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<p>A positive for the prime minister is the Liberals’ historical
reputation as better economic managers. Shorten’s union background and character are cited as negatives for him.</p>
<p>While a few younger voters support Labor’s policies on capital gains tax, negative gearing and franking credits as being more equitable, many older voters are highly critical of the policies. A 66-year-old woman admin officer laments: “I will be a self-funded retiree when I retire, and my whole life is stuffed up, because everything I’ve worked for is about to go arse-up.”</p>
<p>Stability – or lack of it – is a recurring theme among Warringah soft voters. They see politicians from both sides as focussed on themselves, and the leadership coups as evidence they are more preoccupied with power than “doing the right thing by the people”.</p>
<p>For his critics in these groups, Abbott’s trenchant stand against
same-sex marriage is clear evidence of being out of touch. Three
quarters of Warringah electors voted yes in the 2017 plebiscite. </p>
<p>A younger female says Abbott “has lost a lot of trust over his whole attitude towards women, and the same sex marriage issue”. A female nurse from Curl Curl declares he’s “past it and hasn’t got his finger on the pulse. He’s very old school, very set in his ways, bit of a misogynist. He’s very 1950s in his thinking”.</p>
<p>On the other hand, for some participants Abbott’s sticking to his
beliefs has been a plus, a sign of strength of character and
convictions.</p>
<p>There was passing reference to Abbott as a climate change sceptic, but his stance on same-sex marriage, which people cite repeatedly to illustrate his being out of touch with the electorate, aggravates them far more than his views on climate change.</p>
<p>Some voters who might disagree with him on issues see him as tenacious and committed to a life of public service. “He’s one of the most principled politicians I’ve ever seen,” says a 59-year old male musician from Dee Why.</p>
<p>Running in Abbott’s favour is his local activism. His lifesaving,
firefighting and general community engagement are well known. But his long tenure of itself can work against him. A 47-year old mother of two from Allambie Heights says: “I don’t dislike Tony Abbott. I just think he’s been in the job too long”.</p>
<p>Others regard him as untrustworthy and bitter. A female retiree from Mosman says it is clear he “has spent a lot of time in the parliament getting revenge and caused the most enormous amount of damage to the party”.</p>
<p>But the challenge for Steggall is to turn discontent with the incumbent into support for her.</p>
<p>As the researcher’s summary of the findings puts it: “What might appear to be a high-profile candidature to those looking in from outside the peninsula, does not yet appear to have penetrated the streets of Warringah.</p>
<p>"Some participants had never heard of Steggall. Some had only heard her name and knew nothing else about her, while a few knew she was an Olympian and/or a lawyer, and that she has children and has been married twice; certainly their knowledge of her at this time is not enough to make her an obvious alternative vote choice to Abbott.</p>
<p>"The dilemma for Steggall’s campaign is that neither the former
Liberal-voting Abbott defectors nor the ‘anyone-but-Abbott’ voters are automatically falling her way,” the report says.</p>
<p>“The very fact of deciding (definitely or probably) not to vote for Abbott causes these Warringah electors to consider their vote more carefully, to ponder the issues and weigh up their options on candidates (seriously for the first time in more than two decades).</p>
<p>"Some are aware that there is a ‘strong Indigenous female candidate’ (Susan Moylan-Coombs) and while her name is not top of mind for them, ‘she looks interesting’. The Labor candidate did not rate a mention across all four groups. Minor parties such as the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, as well as potential other independent candidates, are also under consideration by some”.</p>
<p>Older voters are more aware of Steggall, her legal career and her
father’s local legal practice. The fact she’s been an Olympian is a plus for some, indicating discipline; they see her legal qualification as indicating intelligence. A couple of the participants have received direct marketing information from her, making them feel more positive towards her. A 40-year old male from Freshwater who’s been getting “a lot” of Steggall material says: “She’s an independent, she’s moderate. Perfect.”</p>
<p>The assessment from a male business development manager from Balgowlah reflects the ambivalence in some voters’ minds: “There is something exciting about her, and she’s different, but you can’t have that trust in her because there’s no track record there, so you’re really just taking a leap of faith”.</p>
<p>As the researcher sums up from the group discussions, at this stage Steggall “is a local by geography but has yet to prove her mettle as a worthy community advocate.”</p>
<p>But this contest has a long way to run.</p>
<p><strong>Postcript:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-tony-abbott-and-zali-steggall-on-warringah-votes-112702">Listen</a> to interviews with Abbott and Steggall on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>According to qualitative research in the seat this week, Steggall is yet to embed herself in the mind of those voters who are potentially willing to turn against Abbott.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1127022019-02-28T10:07:46Z2019-02-28T10:07:46ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall on Warringah votes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261400/original/file-20190228-106341-1w7yaox.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>The Sydney electorate of Warringah will be one of the most fascinating battlegrounds in the May election, with a high profile independent Zali Stegall challenging former prime minister Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>Despite the seat being on about 11 per cent, Abbott describes this as a “full on marginal seat campaign”. </p>
<p>Abbott is running hard on local issues. He says over-development and traffic congestion are the biggest issues and if reelected he is keen to use his position to be a “champion” for the Northern beaches tunnel. He’s trying to tone down his stridency, this week attempting to avoid being drawn to deeply into the row around the criminal conviction of Cardinal George Pell.</p>
<p>Steggall, a lawyer and former Olympian, is running against Abbott on a campaign that says Warringah voters want “a new voice”.</p>
<p>Keenly focused on climate change policy, Steggall is very critical of the government’s efforts and says even Labor’s energy policy “needs again to be toughened up.”</p>
<p>Steggall, who grew up and lives in the electorate, has only had Abbott as an MP and has never voted Liberal nor has she had voted Labor. </p>
<p>Pressed on who she had voted for, she told The Conversation she has mostly voted independent but “wouldn’t want to say never” to having voted Greens. </p>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
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<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Lee_Rosevere/The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score/Lee_Rosevere_-_The_Big_Loop_-_FML_original_podcast_score_-_10_A_List_of_Ways_to_Die">A List of Ways to Die</a>, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive.</p>
<h2>Image</h2>
<p>AAP Image/Luke Costin</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112702/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Sydney electorate of Warringah will be one of the most fascinating battlegrounds in the May election, with a high profile independent Zali Stegall challenging former prime minister Tony Abbott.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.