tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/australian-election-2022-119150/articlesAustralian election 2022 – The Conversation2024-02-02T03:59:39Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222882024-02-02T03:59:39Z2024-02-02T03:59:39ZAustralia’s young people are moving to the left – though young women are more progressive than men, reflecting a global trend<p>Recent research suggests <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">a growing gender gap in political leanings</a> around the world. In Gen Z, the youngest voting generation, young women are becoming more progressive than men.</p>
<p>Young Australian women, too, are significantly shifting towards the political left – but so are young Australian men, although at a relatively slower rate. </p>
<p>I’ve analysed data from the Australian Election Study, spanning 1996 to 2022, to find out what’s happening.</p>
<p>Just 24.3% of Millennials born between 1980 and 1994 – 21.9% of men and 25.7% of women – said they voted for the Coalition in 2022, representing the lowest level of support for either major party among younger people in the 35-year history of the Australian Election Study. </p>
<p>A slightly higher proportion of Gen Z voted for the Coalition: 24.6%, with a gender breakdown of 34.0% of men and 19.8% of women. </p>
<p>(These numbers will slightly vary based on exact generational definitions – birth-year boundaries – and whether non-voters are excluded from the analysis.)</p>
<p>I found that Australian Millennial and Gen Z men are more conservative than their female counterparts, but are more progressive than men of previous generations at the same stage of life. Across genders, these generations also report being in the political centre less than previous ones.</p>
<p>This runs counter to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">reported trends in most countries</a>, where women have been shifting left “while men stand still”. In fact, in some countries like Germany, signs suggest young men are moving right.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">What explained the seismic 2022 federal election? The Australian Election Study has answers</a>
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<h2>A global youth political gender gap</h2>
<p>A substantial global gender gap has opened in the past six years, following decades of roughly equal ideological distribution. Young American women aged 18-30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male peers, according to US Gallup data.</p>
<p>Germany reflects a similar 30-point divide, while the UK sees a 25-point gap. </p>
<p>In 2022, almost half of Polish men aged 18-21 supported the far-right Confederation party, in contrast to just a sixth of women in that age group. In Germany, there are signs young men under 30 are moving towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/german-election-continuing-popularity-of-far-right-afd-has-roots-in-east-west-divide-167844">the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD</a>), actively opposing immigration more than their elders.</p>
<p>The pattern is reflected beyond the West, too. It is evident in China, Tunisia and South Korea – where, in the 2022 election, young men backed the right-wing People Power party and young women backed the liberal Democratic party.</p>
<p>In all these cases, the dramatic divide is either exclusive to the youngest generation or is far more pronounced than the gender gap in older generations. </p>
<h2>How I reached my findings</h2>
<p>After each federal election, the Australian Election Study survey asks respondents to place themselves on an 11-point ideological scale, where 0 is extreme left, 10 is extreme right, and 5 is often interpreted as neither left nor right (the political centre). </p>
<p>I analysed this data, using <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361146.2021.1899131?scroll=top&needAccess=true">six generational categories</a>.</p>
<p>They were: </p>
<ul>
<li>War generation (born 1920s and came of age during WWII – 1,305 participants)</li>
<li>Builders (born between 1930 and before the end of the WWII – 4,133 participants)</li>
<li>postwar Baby Boomers (born 1946–1960 - 6,651 participants)</li>
<li>Gen X (born 1961-1979 - 5,229 participants)</li>
<li>Millennials or Gen Y (born 1980–1994 - 1,672 participants)</li>
<li>Gen Z (born after 1994 – a smaller size of 264 participants, which requires caution in statistical conclusions).</li>
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<p>A person’s position on the ideological scale is influenced by their age, gender and education.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-australian-voters-helped-swing-the-election-and-could-do-it-again-next-time-184159">Young Australian voters helped swing the election – and could do it again next time</a>
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<h2>Women’s move to the left</h2>
<p>In Australia’s 2022 election, the Coalition received its lowest-ever share of the women’s vote – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">just 32%</a>. Conversely, the Labor party attracted more women than men (albeit to a lesser extent).</p>
<p>Reasons included a fierce rise in feminist views following the global #MeToo movement, the Liberal government’s poor response to sexual assault claims, and the mistreatment of women within the Liberal party and the parliament.</p>
<p>This reflects the global analysis reported by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998">The Financial Times</a>: the #MeToo movement has empowered young women worldwide to embrace fiercely feminist values, influencing their political outlook.</p>
<p>But the Coalition’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-explained-the-seismic-2022-federal-election-the-australian-election-study-has-answers-195286">loss of support among women</a> is not isolated to the 2022 election: it’s been happening since the early 2000s. </p>
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<h2>Men moving left too – but in lower numbers</h2>
<p>My analysis showed women are significantly more likely to be progressive than men. Across generations and political views, the gender gap has widened.</p>
<p>The most recent generation, Gen Z, appears to be the most progressive, with women in particular starkly preferring the left and placing themselves at the centre in dwindling numbers. </p>
<p>However, while Gen Z has more men than women on the right, it has less right-leaning men than any other generation – so it would be wrong to say our young men are rushing to the right, like in <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/knLPC0YKANCgN1Y8UOBOPl?domain=ft.com">South Korea or Germany</a>. </p>
<p>The Australian data mirrors international trends, with a slight twist. Over the past decades, and across generations, Australian men and women have been moving to the left and away from the right. At the same time, they have moved away from the centre (though this is more pronounced for women). </p>
<p>Despite the gender gap, they are heading in the same direction.</p>
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<p>Exploring the connection between gender and generation, I tailored my analysis to see what happened when other factors that influence political leanings were taken into account, like educational attainment, marital status and home ownership. </p>
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<p>Gender remained a significant influence, though this varies depending on the generation, with some generations more gender-divided than others.</p>
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<p>Tertiary education was also significant. Women with a tertiary education are likely to be more progressive than those without one. The same applies to men, although to a lesser extent.</p>
<p>Men and women who are married and own a home are more conservative in their political views. Income itself is neither substantial, nor significant in its effect.</p>
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<h2>Implications for Australian politics</h2>
<p>The gender gap, along with many other factors, is reshaping how young Australians engage with politics. Acknowledging and addressing this divide is a vital step towards fostering an inclusive and representative democracy.</p>
<p>As better educated, younger women become a formidable force in shaping political landscapes, political parties risk losing touch with this influential segment if they fail to address gender-specific issues, such as those related to education, healthcare, childcare, and workplace equality.</p>
<p>The Coalition is definitely on notice, but all political parties must adapt their strategies to align with the evolving demographics. </p>
<p>The move to the left may not stop at left-of-centre parties, but continue further left, towards the Greens for example. Generational replacement may not necessarily continue to favour the Labor party if their party positions do not speak to young women in the next election.</p>
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<p><em>Note: I wrongly synonymise “sex” and “gender” in my analyses, because survey research is yet to properly acknowledge and capture the gender diversity that exists in our society. However, I note it is impossible to truly understand the gender gap (and the progressive direction of younger people’s leanings) in politics if we continue to discuss the “modern” gender gap while still “traditionally” defining gender as a binary concept.</em> </p>
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<p><em>Correction: this article originally stated 29.8% of Gen Z females voted for the Coalition, but the correct figure is 19.8%.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Worldwide, young women are becoming more progressive than young men. It’s happening in Australia, too – with a twist. An analysis of the Australian Election Study yields surprising results.Intifar Chowdhury, Lecturer in Government, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835252022-06-02T20:18:02Z2022-06-02T20:18:02ZCould Australia’s new independent and Green MPs be key to better trans-Tasman relations?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466710/original/file-20220601-71923-v5a4hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5551%2C3675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of independent candidate Kylea Tink celebrate her victory over the Liberal incumbent in North Sydney.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Almost two weeks on from the Australian federal election and the Australian Labor Party looks set to govern alone with 77 seats, despite securing only 32% of the primary vote.</p>
<p>The Liberal and National parties were also beset by primary vote losses, while the winners appear to be the multitude of old and new small parties and independents. Between them, these outsiders have scooped up more than <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm">30% of the vote</a> in the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>It’s tempting to draw lessons for New Zealand from the Australian result – not least because the Liberal-National Coalition governed through the pandemic. The policies of Scott Morrison’s government were not unlike New Zealand’s – closing borders, providing additional funding to states and initially supporting lockdowns – and it was punished at the polls. </p>
<p>Also like New Zealand, they were slow to roll out vaccines and distribute rapid antigen test supplies. Australian cities experienced protests against lockdowns and vaccine mandates in the name of freedom. And while the economy remained resilient, Australia is facing rising cost of living, stretched supply chains and predictions of worse to come. </p>
<p>It would be easy to assume, then, that being the incumbent government at the height of a pandemic does not bode well for re-election. But it may also be that this outcome represents an opportunity for New Zealand. </p>
<h2>The ‘teal’ deal</h2>
<p>This Australian election was about much more than COVID-19. It was about Morrison’s leadership – or lack of it, especially after catastrophic bushfires and floods. He appeared to care little about political integrity or about the toxic culture within his party that alienated many female colleagues. </p>
<p>And he relished the opportunity to engage in divisive rhetoric on asylum seekers, China and climate change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hes-australias-31st-prime-minister-so-who-is-anthony-albanese-177617">He's Australia's 31st prime minister. So who is Anthony Albanese?</a>
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<p>It was this last issue that spurred the zeal for independent “teal” candidates (perhaps best thought of as blue-green liberals) in the safe “leafy” electorates of Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, while in Queensland the Greens scooped seats off the Liberals and Labor. </p>
<p>This is not surprising, given <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2022-05/apo-nid317937.pdf">research suggests</a> an increasing number of Australians want to see progress on emissions reductions and are less likely to respond to a culture war on climate. </p>
<p>But the teal independents did more than highlight a progressive popular mandate for the environment. They also shone a light on the ugliness of pork-barrel politics and populism, and the limitations of centrally controlled major parties at a time when diverse communities want their voices heard.</p>
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<h2>Independents at the vanguard</h2>
<p>That said, the rise of independents has been a slow and simmering trend in Australian politics, both federally and at the state and territory level. The Liberal and National parties have been the target of what appears to be an independent “movement” since the 1980s. </p>
<p>Independents won a number of rural and regional seats in the 1990s and 2000s, fuelled by three key factors: a belief that major parties were taking “safe” seats for granted, compulsory voting, and community-based candidates able to harness a geographical concentration of votes under Australia’s preferential voting system. </p>
<p>Indeed, by the early 2000s, Australia was home to more independent parliamentarians than any comparable Western country. At times they have held the balance of power. At others, they’ve championed causes the major political parties found too risky or uninteresting, including political integrity and human rights. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-biloela-family-are-going-home-but-what-will-labor-do-with-thousands-of-other-asylum-seekers-in-limbo-in-australia-183621">The ‘Biloela family’ are going home – but what will Labor do with thousands of other asylum seekers in limbo in Australia?</a>
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<p>Perhaps most relevant for New Zealand has been the influence of independents on Australia’s immigration and offshore detention policies.</p>
<p>In 2019, for example, independent Cathy McGowan sided with the Labor opposition and several other independents to pass the Medevac Evacuation Act, which made it possible for critically ill detainees to be treated on the Australian mainland.</p>
<p>The Morrison government claimed the new law was unconstitutional and repealed it after its “miracle” election victory later in 2019, with the support of independent senator Jacqui Lambie. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/04/medevac-repeal-gives-morrison-a-political-win-but-prompts-intense-moral-discomfort">Lambie reportedly traded her vote</a> for the possibility of a more permanent solution based on New Zealand’s resettlement offer, finally <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-you-need-to-know/464802/australia-new-zealand-refugee-resettlement-deal-what-you-need-to-know">taken up by Australia</a> earlier this year. </p>
<p>Now, with the election of Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, there is discussion about a possible softening of the visa cancellation and deportation polices under section 501 of the Immigration Act. Here, the role of independent (and Green) MPs may be crucial to New Zealand’s interests.</p>
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<h2>A better deal for Australian Kiwis</h2>
<p>There is now a strong tradition of independents committing to human rights issues, in the <a href="https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n6364/pdf/ch18.pdf">House and the Senate</a>. And while their focus has often been on the plight of refugees and asylum seekers, the goodwill and energy of these cross-benchers might also be applied to improving pathways to citizenship for New Zealanders living permanently in Australia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/467703/how-will-the-australia-new-zealand-relationship-change">current barriers</a> to citizenship have fuelled the deportation rate, as well as blocked Australian New Zealanders from access to benefits after natural disasters or for medical disabilities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-will-bring-a-different-style-of-leadership-to-the-pms-office-can-australia-make-the-adjustment-183834">Albanese will bring a different style of leadership to the PM's office –– can Australia make the adjustment?</a>
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<p>The challenge for Jacinda Ardern will be to encourage Albanese and the new Labor government to loosen the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/NewZealandersInAustralia">2016 arrangement</a> made by the previous Coalition government. This offered a pathway to permanent residence and eventually citizenship, but applied only to New Zealanders who had been living in Australia before February 2016 and who met certain criteria.</p>
<p>Revising those conditions could form part of a revamped Closer Economic Relations agreement to mark its 40th anniversary next year. If that doesn’t work, New Zealand could consider lobbying Australia’s progressive independent and Green MPs. </p>
<p>Either way, the Albanese government is presenting itself as more interested in its Pacific neighbours and in those who want to make Australia their permanent home. As such, it represents the best opportunity in nearly a decade for more favourable trans-Tasman relations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Curtin is an Associate Investigator on an Australian Research Council grant (2022-2024) with Cosmo Howard and Juliet Pietsch that examines the history of the "fair go" in Australia and New Zealand.
She is the co-author with Brian Costar of the book "Rebels with a Cause. Independents in Australian Politics (UNSW, 2004).</span></em></p>The success of independents at the Australian election is a sign the political culture has shifted in Canberra, with potential benefits for expat New Zealanders and trans-Tasman relations in general.Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841102022-05-31T14:18:48Z2022-05-31T14:18:48ZFour reasons the UK Conservative Party should be worried about Australia’s recent election result<p>In their recent election, Australians <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/australian-election-voters-rage-despair-major-parties-on-notice/101095010">voted out their incumbent government</a>, a long-standing coalition between two conservative parties. In its place, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) formed a government, despite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/teal-independents-who-are-they-how-did-they-upend-australia-election">a declining vote share of 30%</a>. Seats were gained by the Australian Greens and, most notably, a swath of independent MPs, who together make up just over 10% of the 151-seat lower house.</p>
<p>If it is true that governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them, then there are four reasons that the outcome of the Australian election should make Conservative MPs in the UK worried.</p>
<h2>1. Integrity in politics</h2>
<p>Integrity in politics was a key issue that drove many moderate voters away from the incumbent Liberal Party and towards independent candidates in affluent urban seats. Yet instances of dishonesty in Australian politics pale in comparison to the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/partygate-115248">partygate scandal</a> in the UK. The fact that the rural city of Wangaratta <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mckenzie-approved-36-000-for-shooting-club-without-saying-she-was-a-member-20200121-p53tbf.html">gained a new clay pigeon shooting range</a> as a result of pork-barrelling seems like small beer compared to the revelations surrounding Boris Johnson’s breaking of lockdown rules.</p>
<p>Importantly, the issue of integrity (or its absence) adhered to the leaders. The six-week election campaign became focused on the two main party leaders’ characters. The incumbent prime minister, Scott Morrison, was an excellent campaigner, but was mistrusted amongst large parts of the electorate. French president Emmanuel Macron’s well known verdict on whether he thought Morrison was a liar – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6cXT1ruJ-c">“I don’t think, I know”</a> – was widely shared.</p>
<p>Morrison became an electoral liability in affluent seats, where moderates deserted him and his party for independent candidates. The same could become true for Johnson. There are already signs of a similar shift in the UK, where Liberal Democrats have taken votes from the Conservatives in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-61349440">local</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/six-reasons-why-the-tories-lost-the-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-163030">by-elections</a>, most notably in the immediate aftermath of <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19791328.north-shropshire-by-election-owen-paterson-seat-lost-lib-dems/">scandals</a> involving questions of integrity. </p>
<h2>2. A misplaced ‘war on woke’</h2>
<p>The second issue that drove moderate voters away from the government was the politics of climate change. Part of the Liberal Party’s poor strategising was to frame climate change as part of a culture war. </p>
<p>In this alternative universe, the anti-climate change elements in the government derided any concern with the environment as a contest between urban <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6632756/its-time-we-got-woke-to-the-word-woke/">“latte sippers”</a> and hardworking blue-collar male voters in rural regions or areas economically exposed to the transition to a non-carbon economy. The government also nailed its colours to the mast by steadfastly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/liberal-moderate:-opposition-must-adopt-43-climate-target/13905220">supporting a candidate</a> in inner Sydney with derogatory views about members of the LGBTQ+ community.</p>
<p>These “war on woke” framings and tactics backfired. It suggests something similar could happen in Britain where Conservative strategists appear to be still fighting the previous culture war opened by Brexit. In this way they are seeking to keep the 2019 electoral coalition in place by stoking issues that they hope will pit younger, urban voters against those in the “red wall”.</p>
<h2>3. A relatively unknown opposition leader</h2>
<p>Despite being <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-averages-a-gaffe-a-week-voters-don-t-seem-to-care-20220512-p5akn1">a poor campaigner</a>, the leader of the ALP, Anthony Albanese (or “Albo” as it is now obligatory to call him), was able to win government for his party. This was despite the fact that the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-enters-post-party-era-western-democracy">ALP went marginally backwards</a> in terms of its vote share, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp9899/99RP10">part of a long-term trend</a> affecting the two major parties.</p>
<p>The lesson here is that even if the British public has not warmed to Labour leader Keir Starmer, when facing a mistrusted opponent this might not be the electoral liability that is often assumed.</p>
<h2>4. The voting patterns of women</h2>
<p>It has been interesting to chart the success of so many <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/world/australia/federal-election-independents.html">female independent candidates</a> in the Australian election. We don’t yet know how the vote broke down by gender, but in the previous election <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-morrison-governments-response-to-sexual-assault-claims-cost-it-the-next-election-156939">fewer women voted for the Liberal Party than men</a>. Similarly, in the UK in 2019 <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-941630307/brexit-and-beyond-rosie-campbell/s-JMMkrCPQPDJ">more women voted for Labour than men for the first time</a>.</p>
<p>These shifts might have been used to inform some sensitive campaigning. Yet the Morrison government appeared to become only more estranged from women voters when it mishandled <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-change-making-history-making-noise-brittany-higgins-and-grace-tame-at-the-national-press-club-176252">allegations of rape and sexual abuse</a> in the Australian parliament. The Conservatives would be wise to pay closer attention to women voters, not least in the wake of anger over the murder of Sarah Everard and <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-booze-and-politics-inside-the-corridors-of-power-in-the-week-that-reignited-westminsters-metoo-7smx9fkd7">ongoing scandals</a> over sexual misconduct in the British parliament.</p>
<p>Of course, the big difference between the positions of the conservative parties in Australia and the UK is the size of the Conservative majority at Westminster. The ousted conservative coalition in Australia operated on a majority of fewer than ten seats whereas Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have close to an 80-seat majority. What’s more, Australia has a compulsory voting system, so voters have to vote for someone, but in the UK they can just abstain, which would be to the current government’s advantage. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the electoral fate of the Liberal Party of Australia – a sister party to the Conservatives – should give the latter pause for thought.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Wellings does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scandals and a misguided war on woke have cost Australia’s conservatives their voter base, opening the path for Labor.Ben Wellings, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1839102022-05-26T02:05:49Z2022-05-26T02:05:49ZBelow the Line: How might our new, more diverse parliament change Australia and the Asia-Pacific? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465407/original/file-20220526-11-lc1qio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5568%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.</p>
<p>In this final episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel discusses the possible impacts the election result may have on government policy, from Canberra to the world stage. What can Albanese get done, in concert with the independents, the Greens and other MPs?</p>
<p>They’re joined by PhD student Phoebe Hayman from La Trobe University to discuss the teal independents’ campaigns and how they might contribute to the new parliament. They’re also joined by Director of La Trobe Asia Bec Strating to discuss how the Solomon Islands dispute impacted the campaign and what our relationship with China might look like under Foreign Minister Penny Wong.</p>
<p>This final episode was recorded live at La Trobe University on May 24, and we have released it in two parts. Listen <a href="https://theconversation.com/below-the-line-has-australias-political-landscape-changed-forever-podcast-183730">here</a> to part one, which focuses on the election results and their fallout. This concluding edition looks ahead to the policy issues faced by the new federal parliament.</p>
<p>Our panellists also discuss the frontrunner for the Liberal leadership Peter Dutton, whom Simon Jackman believes is more pragmatic than some may think. Host Jon Faine and Andrea Carson speculate as to whether News Corporation will double down on its partisan alignment with the Coalition, or learn from its ultimately unsuccessful attempts to influence the campaign during its coverage. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Anika Guaja wonders whether the teal independents might band together and form a new party ahead of the next federal election in 2025. We also hear from young La Trobe students about their experience of voting for the first time.</p>
<p>Finally, a sincere thank you to our regular listeners who have supported Below the Line throughout the election campaign. Our regular panellists are taking a well-earned break, but perhaps you might hear from them again at the next federal election.</p>
<p>To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversation’s journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-1">subscribe today</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</em></p>
<p><em>Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183910/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In the final episode of our election podcast, our regular panellists are joined by two expert guests to discuss what the election outcome could mean for domestic and foreign policy.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837302022-05-24T06:59:50Z2022-05-24T06:59:50ZBelow the Line: Has Australia’s political landscape changed forever? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464956/original/file-20220524-25-98ktl1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=61%2C0%2C6877%2C4550&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”.</p>
<p>2022 was that breakthrough election. The Liberal party was turfed out, not just from government but also from many of its blue-ribbon seats, and we saw a historic wave of climate-focused candidates elected from outside the major parties.</p>
<p>In this episode of Below the Line, our expert panel dissects the results of this surprising federal election, from Anthony Albanese’s victory, to the breakthrough of independents and the Queensland Greens, and Scott Morrison “bulldozing” his way to the worst Liberal result since the second world war.</p>
<p>Our regular panellists recorded this final episode live at La Trobe University, which we are releasing in two parts. Part one focuses on the election results and their fallout, while the concluding edition of our limited-edition podcast series will examine the policy consequences going forward for the new federal parliament.</p>
<p>Our political experts also critique the media’s coverage of the campaign in light of the historic results. Host and former ABC Radio host Jon Faine believes the national broadcaster’s coverage was “below standard”, while he agrees with Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan’s criticisms of the unprofessional conduct of the national press gallery. Andrea Carson also calls out News Corp’s partisan coverage, the media’s “gotcha” questions, and their belated focus on women, while Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja take issue with their “presidentialised” approach that focused too much on the parties’ respective leaders.</p>
<p>Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.</p>
<p>To become one of more than 190,000 people who get The Conversation’s journalism by experts delivered straight to their inbox, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-1">subscribe today</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Disclosures: Simon Jackman is a consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</em></p>
<p><em>Image credit: Dean Lewins/AAP</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode of Below the Line, we dissect the election result and how the media's "presidential–ised" coverage looks in light of it.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835482022-05-23T04:17:23Z2022-05-23T04:17:23ZThe election showed Australia’s huge appetite for stronger climate action. What levers can the new government pull?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464710/original/file-20220523-11-i17sdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C3921%2C2208&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the polls closed on Saturday night, most election commentary focused on the dispiriting campaign where both major parties avoided any substantial division on policy issues and instead focused on negatively framing the opposing leader. </p>
<p>Even to many seasoned political minds, the most likely outcome seemed to be a reversal of the last parliament, with Labor winning enough seats to form a narrow majority, and one or two more seats falling to independents. As we all now know, the outcome was utterly different. The Liberals lost many of their crown jewels to climate challengers – teal independents and the Greens. </p>
<p>This means the new Labor government now has a different challenge on climate. Rather than trying to keep check on concessions to the cross-bench, Labor must now find ways to pursue more ambitious climate policies. Labor can’t pull the most effective lever available – a carbon price – after the Liberals successfully poisoned the well. But there are other ways to accelerate Australia’s shift to cleaner and greener, such as through public investment in large-scale solar and wind. </p>
<p>The next three years will be challenging economically and politically. But the transformation wrought by the election has opened up the possibility of a similar transformation of climate policy. With bold action, a bright future awaits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Solar farm by sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government backing for large scale renewables could be one lever Labor could pull.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate proved critical</h2>
<p>Labor’s path to victory was unusual. The party taking government will do so despite its primary vote slumping to a postwar low, far below the level of routs seen in 1996 and 1975. </p>
<p>Outside Western Australia (where the result was driven largely by the success of the McGowan government’s Covid policy), Labor barely moved the dial. So far Labor has taken five seats from the Liberals (with some Labor-held seats still in doubt) while losing Fowler to an independent and Griffith to the Greens. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-pricing-works-the-largest-ever-study-puts-it-beyond-doubt-142034">Carbon pricing works: the largest-ever study puts it beyond doubt</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The big shock in this election was the loss of a string of formerly safe Liberal seats to Greens and “teal” independents. All of these candidates campaigned primarily on climate change, an issue the major parties, and most of the mainstream media had agreed should be put to one side as too dangerous and divisive. </p>
<p>During the campaign, the possibility of a hung parliament drew attention. In response, both major parties vowed (not very credibly) that they would never do a deal with Greens or independents to secure office. Realistically, it seemed possible that Labor might offer a slightly more ambitious program on climate policy in order to make minority government easier.</p>
<p>In retrospect, it’s clear that this type of analysis assumed Australia’s long-standing political pattern would continue: a two-party system, with a handful of cross-benchers occasionally playing the role of kingmaker. All of the media commentary leading up to the election took this for granted. The “teal” independents were seen as a possible threat to two or three urban Liberals and the Greens were, for all practical purposes, ignored.</p>
<p>What we have instead is a shock to this system. Australia now has a radically changed political scene in which the assumptions of the two-party system no longer apply. Even if Labor scrapes in with a majority, it is unlikely to be sustained at the next election, given the challenging economic circumstances the incoming government will face. As for the LNP, unless they can regain some of the seats lost to independents and Greens, they have almost no chance of forming a majority government at the next election, even with a big win over Labor in traditionally competitive seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Power pylons" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s proposed Rewiring the Nation corporation is aimed at making the grid renewable-ready.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adapting to political change</h2>
<p>Labor’s challenge now is to adapt to this new world. They will have to find ways of delivering what the electorate clearly wants on climate, after ruling out most of the obvious options in the course of the campaign. The new leader of the LNP will have the unenviable task of winning back lost Liberal heartlands while placating a party room dominated by climate denialists and coal fans.</p>
<p>Having ruled out a carbon price, Labor will need to be much more aggressive with the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a> it inherits from the LNP. By itself, this won’t be nearly enough. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-be-hit-by-a-carbon-tax-whether-the-prime-minister-likes-it-or-not-except-the-proceeds-will-go-overseas-170959">Australia is about to be hit by a carbon tax whether the prime minister likes it or not, except the proceeds will go overseas</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The real need is to promote rapid growth in large-scale solar and wind energy, and to push much harder on the transition to to electric vehicles. Some of this could be done through direct public investment, on the model of Queensland’s <a href="https://cleancoqueensland.com.au/">CleanCo</a>, or through expanded use of concessional finance using the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the new Rewiring the Nation Corporation. The great political appeal of this approach is that all of these agencies are off-budget and therefore won’t count in measures of public debt, which is bound to grow in coming years due to pandemic spending.</p>
<p>Democracy, however imperfect, works through the possibility of renewal and change. What this election has shown us that the political system can change. Now comes the task of applying politics – the art of the possible – to the challenge of switching our energy systems from fossil fuels to clean power. It’s our best chance yet. </p>
<p><em>Correction: A previous version of this article mentioned Cowper rather than Fowler as the Labor seat lost to an independent.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>Doing as little as possible on climate change was a seemingly safe political strategy until recently. As of Saturday night, it’s a recipe for political disaster.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835182022-05-22T20:02:37Z2022-05-22T20:02:37ZA new dawn over stormy seas: how Labor should manage the economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464648/original/file-20220522-13-tvwguf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=266%2C318%2C2582%2C1366&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Labor has inherited an economy with a pretty full “head of steam”. </p>
<p>Domestic demand is growing strongly, fuelled by </p>
<ul>
<li><p>households flush with cash (and enriched by big increases in property prices)</p></li>
<li><p>full pipelines of housing construction and government-funded infrastructure </p></li>
<li><p>businesses apparently keener to invest than for more than a decade. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Unemployment has fallen to its lowest for <a href="https://theconversation.com/at-3-9-australias-unemployment-rate-now-officially-begins-with-3-whats-next-183226">48 years</a> with only <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-record-vacancies-australians-shouldnt-expect-big-pay-rises-soon-180416">1.3</a> unemployed for each vacant job.</p>
<p>And Australia has also been one of very few economies to benefit financially from the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on food and energy prices. </p>
<h2>Stormy weather</h2>
<p>But Labor has also inherited an economy which, like most others at the moment, is experiencing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-hits-5-1-how-long-until-mortgage-rates-climb-181832">sharp acceleration in inflation</a>. As a result, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-governor-philip-lowe-is-hiking-interest-rates-worst-case-itll-mean-an-extra-600-per-month-on-a-500-000-mortgage-182241">interest rates</a> are likely to climb significantly over the next 18 to 24 months, weighing on Australia’s many heavily-mortgaged households. </p>
<p>And Labor will have to deal with the consequences of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pandemic-has-changed-chinas-economy-perhaps-for-good-167597">ongoing slowdown</a> in – and the deterioration in relations with – Australia’s major customer, China. </p>
<p>It might also have to confront a sharp slowdown, if not <a href="https://theconversation.com/fed-hopes-for-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy-but-history-suggests-it-wont-be-able-to-prevent-a-recession-182270">a recession</a>, in the US and much of the rest of the industrialised world. </p>
<p>And it might do so with limited room to deploy fiscal (spending and tax) tools, thanks to the deterioration in Australia’s public finances.</p>
<h2>Limited mandate</h2>
<p>Like every first-term federal and state government in the past 30 years, the Albanese government comes into office with only a limited mandate - one in which the list of things it has promised <em>not</em> to do is longer than the list of things it has promised <em>to</em> do.</p>
<p>It has mandates for:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>more ambitious action on climate change, for which it will be supported by the bevy of independents elected in formerly safe Liberal seats</p></li>
<li><p>improved standards in aged and disability care</p></li>
<li><p>cheaper child care</p></li>
<li><p>more technical and further education and university places</p></li>
<li><p>more spending on social and affordable housing and</p></li>
<li><p>collecting more tax from multinational corporations.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>But it has no mandate for reforms that might lift Australia’s woeful productivity performance over the past decade, beyond whatever contribution any of the aforementioned policies might make, at the margin. </p>
<p>And, having <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2108/ALP_Election_Costing_2022_FINAL_-_Copy.pdf">acknowledged</a> its policies will marginally add to the projected budget deficits over the next four years, it has no mandate for anything that would put Australia’s public finances on a more sustainable medium-term trajectory (as its counterpart in New Zealand did in its budget handed down last week).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-wins-with-a-modest-program-but-the-times-may-well-suit-him-182521">Albanese wins with a modest program – but the times may well suit him</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In particular, it lacks a mandate to find the revenue required to fund the extra spending on aged and disability care, and health, which the Australian people clearly want, or for the extra spending on defence that the Australian people seem likely to get, whether they want it or not. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464644/original/file-20220522-20-jkebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bob Hawke used summits to expand mandates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Archives of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If it truly wishes to make a lasting difference to Australia’s medium term prospects - in the way that the Hawke and the Keating governments did - Labor needs in its first term to lay the groundwork for a more expansive mandate for its second term.</p>
<p>The most effective way of doing this would be to commission a series of inquiries into a limited number of issues posing the greatest medium-term challenges for Australia.</p>
<p>Among them would be ways of lifting productivity growth, housing affordability, tax reform, federal-state financial relations, the performance of Australia’s education system, and inequality. </p>
<p>If the inquiries had well-crafted terms of reference and were led by well-chosen people tasked with identifying solutions and making the case for change, Labor could then use their findings to create a more ambitious platform for 2025.</p>
<p>It is what Prime Minister <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/from-the-archives-2000-howard-bets-future-on-gst-20210625-p584eg.html">John Howard</a> did. Having promised ahead of the 1996 election that he would “never, ever” introduce a goods and services tax, he used that term to make the case for introducing such a tax in his second term, put it to the 1998 election, and won.</p>
<h2>Prepare for that second term now</h2>
<p>Bob Hawke did a similar thing to Howard with his 1983 <a href="https://www.naa.gov.au/explore-collection/australias-prime-ministers/robert-hawke/during-office">national economic summit</a> and 1985 <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/original/00006665.pdf">national taxation summit</a>, expanding the boundaries of what was politically possible while keeping faith with those to whom he had promised not to do certain things in his first term.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-teals-and-greens-will-turn-up-the-heat-on-labors-climate-policy-heres-what-to-expect-183532">The teals and Greens will turn up the heat on Labor's climate policy. Here's what to expect</a>
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<p>The alternative approach of abandoning promises shortly after taking office, adopted by the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/budget-2014-the-promises-tony-abbott-made-versus-what-he-will-deliver/news-story/343fc1f11b235e1a225024a70a1305c0">Abbott government</a> in its first budget in 2014, and Queensland Premier <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/29/crash-through-campbell-newman-may-have-said-sorry-for-the-last-time">Campbell Newman</a> in 2012, is usually fatal.</p>
<p>Not since 1931 has a first-term federal government failed to secure a second term. This makes it possible to lay the groundwork now for that term, creating the mandate to allow Labor to do what it won’t be able to do in its first.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saul Eslake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation, a slowdown in China and recessions in the US and elsewhere are big risks. Labor’s mandate is limited. It needs to build the case for an expanded one now.Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834542022-05-22T04:45:23Z2022-05-22T04:45:23ZPrime Minister Albanese’s victory speech brings hope for First Nations Peoples’ role in democracy<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/anthony-albanese-acceptance-speech-full-transcript/101088736">acceptance speech</a> opened with a generous acknowledgement of Traditional Owners and a full commitment to the <a href="https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/">Uluru Statement from the Heart</a>. </p>
<p>The new government also celebrates the first female Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Linda Burney, as another significant and historic occasion. </p>
<p>Albanese’s commitment to the Uluru Statement from the heart made it clear it is an exciting time to be an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person and participate in building our democracy.</p>
<p>No other election victory speech has placed Indigenous Peoples as central to the incoming government’s policy. Labor’s win thus represents a positive turning point in the relationship between Indigenous Peoples and other Australians. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1528183250463891456"}"></div></p>
<h2>What does this mean for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament?</h2>
<p>An Indigenous Voice to Parliament and Government is one of three aspects of the Uluru Statement, alongside truth-telling and Treaty.</p>
<p>In 2020 I sat on the National Co-Design Group for <a href="https://voice.niaa.gov.au/">Indigenous Voice</a>. This was the federal government consultative process that put together the framework for how Indigenous peoples could have a say in parliament and government. Across 2020 and 2021, the working groups for Indigenous Voice heard from almost 9,500 Indigenous and other Australians who offered their thoughts on how a Voice to Parliament might work in practice. </p>
<p>Yet, Labor’s track record in living up to the big policy and social moments is patchy. For example, the 2008 <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/national-apology">National Apology</a> for Stolen Generations was a bold move to recognise the trauma of colonisation in separating families. </p>
<p>However since that speech, there has been significant <a href="https://theconversation.com/reunifying-first-nations-families-the-only-way-to-reduce-the-overrepresentation-of-children-in-out-of-home-care-175513">increase</a> of Indigenous children in <a href="https://theconversation.com/thirteen-years-after-sorry-too-many-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-children-are-still-being-removed-from-their-homes-159360">out of home care</a>. This <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/25/indigenous-children-in-care-doubled-since-stolen-generations-apology">growth</a> jumped in 2008 with the establishment of Close the Gap and has been a consistent trend throughout the Labor and Liberal years since the Apology.</p>
<h2>Two options</h2>
<p>Instituting an Indigenous Voice under Labor can go one of two ways.</p>
<p>Labor could implement the framework for Indigenous Voice designed by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders. Our design was tested in wide-ranging public feedback from both Indigenous and non-Indigenous people. This can be implemented without the need for constitutional reform. This Voice to Parliament would not depend on anything more than the creation of an Act of parliament. This would constitute a national Indigenous body that represents local and regional Indigenous Voices from country to city. </p>
<p>The other pathway is constitutional enshrinement of an Indigenous Voice, which would require a referendum.</p>
<p>We do not need to have constitutional enshrinement of an Indigenous Voice to begin the process of government and parliament deeply listening to Indigenous Peoples for equity in decision-making. Indeed, it is better that we hold off on enshrinement and let the establishment of Indigenous Voice work out the foundations of a historic relationship between Indigenous Peoples and the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>I am full of hope that Indigenous Voice to Parliament and Government will be a powerful example of how we maintain democracy in Australia. If a parliament and government is from the people and for a people, then Indigenous Voice is a perfect place to test how we hear and respond to issues that are representative. Indigenous Voice is not a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-an-indigenous-voice-would-not-be-third-chamber-of-parliament-20190526-p51r7t.html">third chamber</a>, but rather the process in which our gaps of relationship-building are filled. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uluru-statement-must-be-core-to-promises-made-by-all-parties-in-the-lead-up-to-the-federal-election-182296">The Uluru Statement must be core to promises made by all parties in the lead-up to the federal election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Hope for the future</h2>
<p>People are hurting, through fire, flood or pandemic, and the previous government have badly let us down in addressing this. Politics is not just the act of leadership - Indigenous Voice can be a place where harmonious and practical advice can demonstrate how working together has mutual benefits. </p>
<p>It is exciting to think how far we might come as an Australian population when we look to Indigenous-led processes of inclusion as a model for those other marginalised voices. It is this basis of a healthy and connected relationship to each other, and to Country, that we might have the makings of reaching a democratic fullness of parliament and government.</p>
<p>This election has been surprising, because we could not assume obvious winners in the choice of multiple opinions, parties, independents and positions. What has been beautiful is the idea that an Indigenous Voice is no longer a wedge issue, but something genuine of our Australian character to stand for – a right to have a fair go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Emma Lee has consulted on the National Co-Design Group for Indigenous Voice. Dr. Lee has also received funding from the Australian Research Council Grant DP200101394 Making policy reform work: a comparative analysis of social procurement.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Albanese’s victory speech commitment to the Uluru Statement brings new possibilities for First Nations peoples’ Voice to Parliament.Emma Lee, Associate Professor, Indigenous Leadership, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1833462022-05-20T04:16:08Z2022-05-20T04:16:08ZOur election coverage has been driven by your agenda – not politicians’<p>Earlier this year, when there were murmurs the date for the 2022 election was soon to be announced, we began to plan in earnest our election coverage. Our editors were aware of the nature of these campaigns; politicians tend to drive the agenda and the media falls into the trap of reporting the issues politicians raise as though they mirror those that voters care about. </p>
<p>The fact that most polls — and journalists — incorrectly predicted the outcome of the 2019 federal election was a lesson. We made a promise to our readers that we’d do better this time; we would ask what issues were on their agenda, not that of politicians. During our #SetTheAgenda campaign, 10,000 readers told us what issues were most important to them in the lead up to the election, and we shaped our coverage based on those responses.</p>
<p>As one respondent said, they’d like candidates to talk about:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Policy. I don’t care what but I’m sick of it devolving away from policy debate.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Policy over personality</h2>
<p>This sentiment was echoed by many of our readers and our mantra of “policy over personality” has set the tone for our election coverage. Climate change was the number-one issue on our readers’ agenda. In fact, more than 60% of you picked it as one of the issues with the greatest impact on your life right now. </p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/10036420/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/10036420/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/10036420" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<p>Since we closed the survey, The Conversation’s Energy + Environment team published more than 50 articles on climate change, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-major-parties-rate-on-climate-policies-we-asked-5-experts-181790">a piece by five of Australia’s leading climate experts</a> grading the Coalition and Labor’s climate policies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/scorched-dystopia-or-liveable-planet-heres-where-the-climate-policies-of-our-political-hopefuls-will-take-us-182513">analysis</a> of where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us and more. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1526418713406480386"}"></div></p>
<p>We also ran two live Q&As, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Idj7bwAUVOs&t=4s">one on climate</a>, and another on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BuyVo87I4E&t=2s">cost of living</a>, where our senior editors posed your most pressing questions to subject-matter and policy experts.</p>
<h2>Your concerns drove our coverage</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Not what they hope to do, but what they WILL do to help climate change. The figure is terrifying for us younger generations and I want them to not just talk, but listen. Listen to us and take action from what we are saying.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For this reader and many other young voters concerned about climate change, we asked an expert to analyse where the major players stand on climate and youth policies in <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-voters-will-inherit-a-hotter-more-dangerous-world-but-their-climate-interests-are-being-ignored-this-election-182663">this article</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How they will address the obscene problem where housing has become an investment playground for the ‘haves’, leaving the ‘have nots’ with little hope of owning a home to actually live in.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both major parties have put forward home-buyer schemes. To compare them and find out whether either will actually address the housing crisis, we published <a href="https://theconversation.com/super-for-housing-or-the-government-as-a-co-owner-how-liberal-and-labor-home-buyer-schemes-compare-183113">this piece</a>.</p>
<p>The term “cost of living” was repeated through many responses, as was “childcare”. These two issues are clearly linked, as the authors of <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-governments-were-really-concerned-about-tax-and-the-cost-of-living-they-would-cut-the-cost-of-childcare-182669">this article</a> argue. “If governments were really concerned about tax and the cost of living they would cut the cost of childcare”, they wrote.</p>
<p>To those who want to know where the major parties stand on Medicare policy, these five experts have offered their assessment <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-major-parties-rate-on-medicare-we-asked-5-experts-182230">here</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I want Australia to listen to what First Nations peoples want in terms of recognition and representation at a national level.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If this statement resonates with you, these <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uluru-statement-must-be-core-to-promises-made-by-all-parties-in-the-lead-up-to-the-federal-election-182296">five key priorities</a> are a good place to start.</p>
<h2>All eyes on Saturday</h2>
<p>Our coverage will continue Saturday, Sunday and beyond, no matter the outcome. On election night, our team of editors will be working late to bring you news and analysis as the numbers roll in.</p>
<p>Keep your eyes on your inboxes for our Saturday night newsletter and our Sunday evening bulletin, with news from Michelle Grattan, and evidence-based coverage from Denis Muller, Amy Nethery, Adrian Beaumont and more of Australia’s leading political experts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The media too often reports the issues politicians raise as though they mirror those that voters care about. So this election, we asked for your agenda – and 10,000 of you answered.Misha Ketchell, Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832212022-05-17T06:34:59Z2022-05-17T06:34:59ZBelow the Line: A Facebook executive explains the last-minute election battle on social media – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463551/original/file-20220517-6205-w0zn9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5379%2C3589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>What do One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Labor’s Tanya Plibersek have in common? They are both winning the battle for eyeballs on social media, says a top Facebook official.</p>
<p>In the final episode before polling day of our election podcast Below the Line, our regular panel talks to Mia Garlick, Facebook’s Director of Policy in Australia and New Zealand, about the ways politicians use the social media platform in election campaigns. Our political scientists quiz Garlick on how transparent the company is about the political advertising it carries and the assistance it provides to big-spending campaigners.</p>
<p>Video content is an increasingly important way for politicians to get their messages across to online audiences. Aside from Hanson and Plibersek, Garlick says politicians who are doing video messaging particularly well this election include the Liberal party’s Lucy Wicks and Jason Falinski, and founder of the Reason party Fiona Patten.</p>
<p>Andrea Carson says the digital campaign will ramp up once the three-day blackout on broadcast and newspaper political ads comes into effect <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/electoral-communication.htm#:%7E:text=Broadcasting%20blackout%20periods&text=Election%20ads%20cannot%20be%20broadcast,the%20poll%20on%20polling%20day.">on Wednesday evening</a>, because online ads are outside the law’s reach. Jon Faine describes the law as “absurd” in the digital age, akin to using Morse Code.</p>
<p>Faine also asks the panel why Prime Minister Scott Morrison vowed this week to no longer be “a bulldozer”. “It was a significant shift on Scott Morrison’s part,” says Anika Gauja, in recognition that the public seems to want a more positive campaign than it has been getting. But with more than five million pre-poll and postal votes already cast, <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/5647-2/">according to ABC election analyst Antony Green</a>, has Morrison’s mea culpa come too late?</p>
<p>Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.</p>
<p>To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, <a href="https://donate.theconversation.com/au">make a tax-deductible donation here</a>.</p>
<p><em>Below the Line will broadcast one last episode after the election result next week. If you have a question you would like the panel to answer, email us at:
belowtheline@theconversation.edu.au</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Disclosures: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.</em></p>
<p><em>Jon Faine does freelance work for Industry Super Australia, a peak body for industry superannuation funds.</em></p>
<p><em>Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</em></p>
<p><em>Image credit: James Ross/AAP</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In the final episode of our election podcast before polling day, our expert panel interview a Facebook official on the online campaign, and discuss Morrison's mea culpa and last-minute housing policy.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830332022-05-13T05:48:14Z2022-05-13T05:48:14ZBelow the Line: What might happen to the major party that loses the election? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462959/original/file-20220513-3750-de1uet.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C19%2C4283%2C2836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government.</p>
<p>Led by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, the panel talks through the potential configurations of the next federal parliament, including the possible balance of power in both chambers.</p>
<p>Polling expert Simon Jackman analyses the latest voter surveys and tells us why a Labor victory still looks very likely at this stage. Anika Gauja maps the key contests in the Senate and the likelihood of minor parties and independents holding decisive votes.</p>
<p>Andrea Carson scores the final leaders’ debate and argues that Channel Seven’s format gave voters a better look at policy issues than the previous debate on Channel Nine. Some 811,000 Australians tuned in to watch Wednesday night’s event, but Faine wonders whether voters have heard enough about the issues they truly care about.</p>
<p>“The debate’s range of topics was still pretty narrow,” says Carson. “I think it was noted for what wasn’t debated rather than what was,” says Faine, who lists tax reform, industrial relations and Indigenous affairs as important but missing policy issues.</p>
<p>The panel also contemplates the Liberal party’s future if key moderates lose their seats, and whether it will move further to the right. Gauja lists the likely names to lead Labor if Anthony Albanese suffers a shock defeat on May 21.</p>
<p>Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.</p>
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<p><em>Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP; Mick Tsikas/AAP</em></p>
<p><em>Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode of our election podcast, our expert panel discuss the last leaders' debate, the latest polls and what might the future of the unsuccessful major party might look like.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825942022-05-10T20:01:32Z2022-05-10T20:01:32ZOver the last 30 years, a fifth of polls have called the wrong winner. Here are 3 things poll-watchers need to understand<p>With voting already underway, and the sausage sizzle less than two weeks away, there are three things worth knowing if you are trying to work out which side is most likely to win: </p>
<ul>
<li>the likely result in terms of the two-party preferred vote</li>
<li>the record of the electoral pendulum, based on the two-party preferred vote, in predicting election outcomes, and</li>
<li>the record of the opinion polls in predicting how far the electoral pendulum is likely to swing.</li>
</ul>
<p>Here’s how are they used together to predict a result.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-election-campaign-begins-what-do-the-polls-say-and-can-we-trust-them-this-time-180318">As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>The two-party preferred</h2>
<p>The two-party preferred vote (which compares Labor and the Coalition) combines the first preferences with second or other preferences.</p>
<p>If Labor wins 51%, the Coalition wins 49%, and vice versa; the numbers always add up to 100.</p>
<p>But the two-party preferred, on its own, is not enough to predict the outcome of the election. You also need to get your head around the electoral pendulum.</p>
<h2>The electoral pendulum</h2>
<p>Devised by psephologist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Mackerras">Malcolm Mackerras</a> in 1972, the pendulum lists the seats held by Labor and the Coalition in ascending order of their two-party preferred results. </p>
<p>There are various versions of the electoral pendulum online, but the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/pendulum">ABC’s is regarded as definitive</a>.</p>
<p>The 2022 pendulum is based on the results of the 2019 election, adjusted for subsequent changes in electoral boundaries in Victoria and WA.</p>
<p>Nominate a national two-party preferred vote, and the pendulum promises to predict each side’s share of the seats. </p>
<p>True, this promise has been fulfilled only twice in the 19 elections held since 1972. </p>
<p>But it’s usually quite close; at four elections it has fallen short by only one seat, and at eight by no more than two or three. Not a bad record.</p>
<p>More importantly, the pendulum has only twice failed to predict which side would form government: </p>
<ul>
<li>in 1998, when Labor won 51% of the two-party preferred result but got 12 fewer seats than the pendulum predicted, a result that allowed John Howard to survive; and</li>
<li>in 2010, when the Coalition won 49.9% of the two-party preferred – enough, on the pendulum, for an Abbott victory – only to see Labor bag five more seats than the pendulum anticipated, allowing Julia Gillard to form a minority Labor government.</li>
</ul>
<p>As 2010 illustrates, the side that gets more than half the votes won’t necessarily get more than half the seats. Rather, the pendulum works off the <em>margins</em> by which seats are held. </p>
<p>At this election, Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.</p>
<p>How big a challenge is that? Since the war, there have been 29 elections. Labor increased its share of the two-party preferred vote in 13.</p>
<p>But in only six did it do so by 3.3 percentage points or more, and in only four did it do so by 4.5 points or more (the swing required for it to pick up a two-party preferred result of 53%). Not Mount Everest, but not a stroll in park. </p>
<p>The last time there was a swing to Labor of this magnitude was in 2007. </p>
<p>A two-party vote of 54% suggested by recent polls – a 5.5-point swing – is something Labor has only achieved once since the war. That was in 1969, off a much lower base (a two-party vote of 43.1% not 48.5%, Labor’s two-party vote in 2019).</p>
<h2>So, what to make of current polls?</h2>
<p>Labor currently enjoys a two-party preferred vote of about 54% in the polls; this translates to a gain of 17 seats on the pendulum.</p>
<p>A two-party preferred result of 53% would, in theory, yield just 10 seats – three more than the seven it needs to form government.</p>
<p>A two-party preferred result of 57%, reported by the latest Ipsos poll, would produce a Labor gain of 30 seats.</p>
<p>According to Sportsbet on Monday morning, punters are expecting a Labor two-party preferred result of 51.6% and a gain of the seven seats it needs, with the Coalition expected to lose another three to independents.</p>
<p>Current doubts about the polls’ accuracy have focused on their 2019 failure, with all of them getting it wrong and by the similar margins. </p>
<p>But over the past 30 years, a fifth of all the polls have called the wrong winner.</p>
<p>More importantly, from 1993 to 2010, the polls median error in calculating the winner’s lead was almost two percentage points. </p>
<p>On a median error of this size, a 54-46 lead in the polls might really be a lead of six (53-47) or ten (55-45), if the polls were entirely accurate. </p>
<p>Similarly, if the polls narrow, a lead of 53-47 could turn out to be a lead of 52-48 or a lead of 54-46. </p>
<p>Errors of this size could make a big difference.</p>
<h2>An element of uncertainty</h2>
<p>Before the votes are counted, the two-party preferred vote can only be a guesstimate. </p>
<p>In a close contest, even a smaller error could make the difference between:</p>
<ul>
<li>a hung parliament in which the Coalition formed government (unlikely this time)</li>
<li>a hung parliament in which Labor formed government (a more likely outcome)</li>
<li>a parliament in which Labor commanded a majority in its own right (the outcome to which all the polls are pointing).</li>
</ul>
<p>History suggests the polls could easily be over-estimating Labor’s two-party preferred; the chances that they are underestimating it are low.</p>
<p>While each of these considerations are important, as we try to work out what’s likely to happen, each involves an element of uncertainty.</p>
<p>Of course, uncertainty is part of life. Maybe you’ll get a good sausage sandwich when you turn up to vote, and maybe you won’t.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-widens-leads-in-newspoll-and-ipsos-as-pre-polling-starts-182655">View from The Hill: Labor widens leads in Newspoll and Ipsos, as pre-polling starts</a>
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</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182594/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Goot receives funding from no organisation but has received funding from the Australian Research Council and various government bodies and formal inquiries in the past.
</span></em></p>Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1827572022-05-10T06:04:33Z2022-05-10T06:04:33ZBelow the Line: What issues are politicians ignoring this election? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462181/original/file-20220510-14-zyjsu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5203%2C3476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Channel Nine’s leaders’ debate on Sunday night may have been a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-shouty-unedifying-spectacle-and-a-narrow-win-for-albanese-3-experts-assess-the-second-election-debate-182423">shouty, unedifying spectacle</a>”, but Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will do it all again on Wednesday evening on Channel Seven.</p>
<p>Why? In the latest episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our panel of experts explain that our political leaders are under pressure to persuade voters as quickly as possible, given early voting centres have now opened and Australians can cast their ballots.</p>
<p>But what policies aren’t being talked about on the debate stages and the campaign trail? Plenty, according to the University of Sydney’s Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja and La Trobe University’s Andrea Carson. Below the Line’s usual host Jon Faine is away for this episode, but will return later in the week.</p>
<p>Anika identifies migration and the casualisation of work as two key issues the major parties have largely steered clear of in the campaign so far. Simon is dumbfounded by how quickly politicians and the media have dropped the topic of COVID, given how many Australians <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-re-living-with-covid-but-more-of-us-are-dying-than-ever-20220429-p5ah7y.html">have died with the disease in 2022</a>. Meanwhile, Andrea wonders why renters can barely get a look in amid all the discussion of first-homebuyer schemes.</p>
<p>Finally, the panel discusses preference deals and whether they could lead to candidates being elected to the lower house despite having relatively few first preferences themselves.</p>
<p>Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.</p>
<p>To become one of the thousands of people who help The Conversation produce journalism by experts, <a href="https://donate.theconversation.com/au">make a tax-deductible donation here</a>.</p>
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<p><em>Image credit: Alex Ellinghausen/AAP</em></p>
<p><em>Audio credit: Channel Nine/60 Minutes</em></p>
<p><em>Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In the latest episode of our election podcast, our expert panel discuss the leaders debate and which issues aren't being discussed on the campaign trail.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825962022-05-06T06:28:23Z2022-05-06T06:28:23ZBelow the Line: How much are the parties spending on ads? And how come One Nation’s Townsville candidate lives in Melbourne? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461688/original/file-20220506-12-rh2j0k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5568%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>On Monday May 9, early voting centres will open and Australians can start casting their votes for the federal election.</p>
<p>Increasing numbers of Australians are choosing not to line up for their democracy sausage on election day, opting instead to get it out of the way beforehand. In 2019, about 40% of Australians either voted early by visiting a pre-poll station (32.7%) or they filled out a postal ballot (8.5%).</p>
<p>So the next week is crucial for parties’ and candidates’ campaigns – can they convince enough persuadable voters before they cast their ballots?</p>
<p>In this episode of Below the Line, award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and our regular panel of political scientists discuss how early voting is “truncating” political campaigns, by bringing forward the crucial vote-turning period.</p>
<p>This means that the campaign will intensify in the next week, says Anika Gauja. The parties will need to get their key messages out repeatedly. Early voting is one of the reasons the leaders may have agreed to two debates in the next seven days – on Mothers’ Day with Channel 9 in prime time and another again on Wednesday 11 May with Channel 7.</p>
<p>They also discuss whether the Reserve Bank’s recent interest rate hike will hurt Prime Minister Scott Morrison, or perhaps help him among mortage-free retirees. On the whole, polling expert Simon Jackman believes it represents a net-negative for the government, because there are more mortgage-holders in marginal seats.</p>
<p>The political parties’ advertising is also dissected. Spending on ads shot up in the last week, with Labor coming out on top as the biggest spender on social media.</p>
<p>Finally, they discuss preferences, campaign finance disclosures and the curious case of a candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party who lives 2,500 kilometres away from the electorate she’s seeking to represent.</p>
<p>Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. The show is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.</p>
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<p><em>Correction: Jon states that the One Nation candidate for “Bob Katter’s seat in northern Queensland” lives in the Melbourne suburb of Pakenham, whereas the far-flung candidate Diane Pepe is actually <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/flabbergasted-melbourne-based-one-nation-candidate-running-in-north-queensland-seat">contesting the seat of Herbert</a>, which is adjacent to Katter’s seat of Kennedy.</em></p>
<p><em>Disclosure: Andrea Carson has received funding for research projects from Facebook.</em></p>
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<p>Image credit: Lukas Coch/Mick Tsikas/AAP</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182596/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode of our election podcast, our expert panel dissect the interest rate rise, political ad spending and the impact of early voting – which opens on Monday May 9.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822862022-05-04T20:06:56Z2022-05-04T20:06:56ZWe tracked election ad spending for 4,000 Facebook pages. Here’s what they’re posting about – and why cybersecurity is the bigger concern<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460727/original/file-20220502-17-vmttm6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C27%2C6006%2C3980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Have you noticed your Facebook and Instagram feed filling up with political ads lately?</p>
<p>The social media strategies of many parties and candidates aim to bypass mainstream media to speak directly to voters, but they are often not as sophisticated as is assumed. </p>
<p>As part of a <a href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au">team studying the digital campaign</a>, we have been tracking what the parties and candidates are doing with their Facebook and Instagram ad spend during the election campaign.</p>
<p>Using ads collected from the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ads/library">Facebook Ad Library API</a> (containing sponsored posts declared by the advertiser as political), we are <a href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/faq">tracking the ad spend for close to 4,000 pages</a>. We gather fresh data every six hours.</p>
<p>At the halfway point in the election campaign, some clear themes are emerging in the ways the parties and candidates are campaigning online.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-allegra-spenders-profile-rises-but-polarises-182275">The Wentworth Project: Allegra Spender's profile rises, but polarises</a>
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<h2>A big spend by ‘teals’ and Labor – and political fragmentation</h2>
<p>The first is the really significant spend from the “teal” Independents. Historically, many successful federal Independents (such as Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott or Cathy McGowan) have come from regional areas.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460715/original/file-20220502-21-jvct6u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thus far, Labor is spending more than the Coalition on Facebook ads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/">UQ Election Ad Data Dashboard</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But they rarely had the resources to execute a campaign of the scale we’re seeing from inner city “teals” like Monique Ryan (running in the seat of Kooyong against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg). </p>
<p>Some are spending A$4,000-$5,000 a week on Facebook and Instagram ads. That is enormous. Very few candidates from the major parties would normally spend that amount. Frydenberg is doing so to try to retain his seat.</p>
<p>The second theme emerging is that, so far, Labor is spending more than the Coalition. That’s a product of Labor’s post-2019 election review, which was damning of their digital campaign and emphasised a digital first strategy.</p>
<p>Thirdly, we’re seeing a real diversity of spending across a range of parties and candidates – Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania, Rex Patrick in South Australia, the Liberal Democrats and the United Australia Party in Queensland, for example. </p>
<p>That reflects the broader fragmentation of the political landscape in Australia. Federal elections in Australia are increasingly complex and multi-dimensional, the campaign online is indicative of this trajectory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460713/original/file-20220502-98897-7sivyi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spending in the seat of Kooyong and Wentworth has been high.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/">UQ Election Ad Data Dashboard</a></span>
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<h2>What are candidates and parties posting about?</h2>
<p>In inner city seats where teal independents are running, the number one issue is overwhelmingly climate change. But “environment” or “climate” is not one of they key terms we have found for the major parties across Australia. Instead, jobs, Medicare and health are more prominent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460724/original/file-20220502-24-3tdoxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Lies’ is one of the top terms showing up in posts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/">UQ Election Ad Data Dashboard</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>For those in outer metropolitan and regional areas, the data suggests the cost of living is the key issue parties have identified as determining their vote.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460705/original/file-20220502-18-uk7ybc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ad from the Liberal Party of Australia Facebook page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=550350769782587&set=a.344989720318694">Liberal Party of Australia Facebook page</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Negative campaigning is showing up, too. One of the top terms appearing in ads from the major parties is “lies”.</p>
<h2>Take talk of ‘microtargeting’ with a grain of salt</h2>
<p>While there is always talk of fine-grained and sophisticated microtargeting strategies, there is good reason to be wary of such claims. </p>
<p>There’s a perception we live in this incredible digital age where each message is tailored to our interests or our personalities. But the reality is quite different. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460707/original/file-20220502-16-n5siej.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lying is a common theme in many digital ads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=531724981645348&set=pb.100044235528995.-2207520000..&type=3">The Australian Labor Party Facebook page.</a></span>
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<p>In fact, a great deal of digital campaigning isn’t that targeted at all. Clive Palmer’s campaign is an extreme example of this, “carpet bombing” the electorate with messages about “freedom”. (A reasonable rebuttal might be: can I be free to not receive these messages?) </p>
<p>The reality is that most political advertising online is little more than what I describe in my <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-68234-7">recent book</a> as a form of “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrowcasting">narrowcasting</a>”, where targeting is based on a basic segmentation of voters into demographic or geographic groups. </p>
<p>While many of the techniques we see in Australian election campaigns have been used overseas, particularly in the US and the UK, our electoral system and electoral rules are different; a mixed electoral system and compulsory voting changes the dynamic enormously. </p>
<p>In the US and the UK, the primary focus is to “get out the vote” rather than persuade voters. But <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-022-09781-7">the evidence</a> suggests the effects of digital campaigns on mobilisation are limited. For persuasion, it is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680221076901">even less</a>.</p>
<p>Most parties also lack the resources to engage in highly differentiated and targeted campaign activity.</p>
<p>In research I recently completed with colleagues from six advanced democracies, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13540688221084039">we showed</a> most campaign activity builds on pre-existing techniques and are far less sophisticated than is often assumed. </p>
<p>Digital campaigning matters, as voters are online. It educates, it informs, it drives the conversation and it can have effects on social cohesion.</p>
<p>But the idea digital campaigning is the canary in the coalmine of electoral manipulation in Australia is hyperbole.</p>
<h2>Data privacy is the broader concern</h2>
<p>Two significant digital campaigning issues we should be concerned about are data privacy and cybersecurity. </p>
<p>Australia is one of the few advanced democracies where political parties are completely <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-politicians-and-political-parties-get-my-mobile-number-and-how-is-that-legal-168750">exempt from privacy legislation</a>. </p>
<p>They are able to acquire all sorts of data about you, from the Australian Electoral Commission, from data they collect when they speak to voters and from digital tracking data.</p>
<p>Should we be comfortable with parties collecting this information about us, especially when much of it provides <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/hacking-the-electorate/C0D269F47449B042767A51EC512DD82E">limited campaigning or educational value</a> to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23723484">parties</a>?</p>
<p>The privacy concerns are significant but so is the broader risk of domestic or foreign actors seeking to acquire this data to sow discord.</p>
<p>Since 2016, political parties in countries such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/18/australia-political-parties-hacked-sophisticated-state-actor">Australia</a>, the <a href="https://labour.org.uk/about-your-data/">UK</a>, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-cyber-biden-exclusive-idUKKBN2610IG">US</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-parties-targeted-in-cyberattack-1474470695">Germany,</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-5star-idUSKBN1CA1TM">Italy </a>and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/04/08/canadian-political-parties-already-targeted-by-foreign-hacking-electronic-spy-agency-says.html?rf">Canada</a> have been the targets of cybersecurity attacks. Many see political parties as the <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/european-election-security-political-parties-cybersecurity/">weak link in the election security</a> of democracy.</p>
<p>That represents a broader risk for all of us. </p>
<p>It is important for us to track what parties and candidates are doing online during a campaign.</p>
<p>But we also need to identify where the real vulnerabilities are, as the threats online are only likely to increase. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/below-the-line-will-different-cultural-groups-favour-one-side-of-politics-this-federal-election-podcast-182236">Below the Line: Will different cultural groups favour one side of politics this federal election? – podcast</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glenn Kefford receives funding from the ARC.</span></em></p>The social media strategies of many parties and candidates aim to bypass mainstream media to speak directly to voters, but they are often not as sophisticated as is assumed.Glenn Kefford, Senior Lecturer (Political Science), The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1816012022-05-03T18:58:09Z2022-05-03T18:58:09ZCentre-left parties worldwide have struggled to reinvent themselves – what kind of ALP is fighting this election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460889/original/file-20220503-14-o2b2fh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3964%2C1856&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keir Starmer, Anthony Albanese and Jacinda Ardern.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images Europe, Lukas Coch/ AAP Image, and Robert Kitchin/Pool Photo via AP </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With due caution about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-to-read-political-polls-and-why-we-can-expect-a-lot-of-drama-on-election-night-181477">(in)accuracy of opinion polls</a>, Australian voters may bring in a Labor government on May 21. If so, what kind of government would they get?</p>
<p>One obstacle to answering this is that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has been out of office for so long, having lost three elections since 2013. And it’s difficult to find comparable case studies, as the <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/why-the-left-loses">social-democratic left</a> has generally not performed well in various elections over the past decade or more. </p>
<p>British Labour, for example, has lost four elections since 2010, although it’s showing signs of revival with Keir Starmer at the helm.</p>
<p>And the tide may be turning in the left’s favour. New Zealand Labour formed a coalition government after the 2017 election and then, following an election dominated by COVID-19 in 2020, hit a record high of 50% and won a single-party majority (virtually unheard of under the proportional MMP system).</p>
<p>And in Germany, social democrat Olaf Scholz now leads a coalition as federal chancellor following last year’s election.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">ALP Leader Anthony Albanese and Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison at the first leaders’ debate of the 2022 federal election in April.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<h2>Three brands of labour</h2>
<p>The three labour parties (British, Australian and New Zealand) have converged around some key values and ideas, indicating how the ALP might govern. There’s always likely to be a gap between rhetoric and actual policy implementation, but examination of leaders’ speeches gives some evidence about where they’re heading. </p>
<p>Our comparative analysis of speeches by the three party leaders indicates a “thin” labourism in relation to the parties’ social-democratic traditions.</p>
<p>ALP leader Anthony Albanese’s key speeches since becoming leader in 2019 show he’s big on economic growth, with an emphasis on social mobility (“aspiration”), fairness and security. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-2022-election-result-in-a-hung-parliament-history-shows-australians-have-nothing-to-fear-from-it-181484">Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it</a>
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<p>Along with talk of jobs and wages – essential themes for any politician wishing to appeal to working people – there’s reference to nation-building and infrastructure. These themes are reflected in the approach being taken by <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-labor-wins-the-election-he-is-set-to-become-the-next-federal-treasurer-so-who-is-jim-chalmers-180138">shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese, Starmer and New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern are alike in that their speeches use the words “economy”, “growth” and “jobs” more than any others – although Ardern refers to the environment noticeably more frequently than the other two. </p>
<p>Like Starmer and Ardern, Albanese downplays traditional social-democratic vocabulary like “progressive”, “dignity”, “solidarity” and “equality”. These leaders also lack the enthusiasm of the third-way “soft neoliberals” who governed during an era of deregulation and downsizing and yet claimed they could “modernise” social democracy, as popularised by the UK’s former prime minister Tony Blair. </p>
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<h2>Safe centrism</h2>
<p>Today’s labour leaders do, however, steer a “safe” centrist path between being pro-growth (or at least not anti-business) and seeking gains for low- and middle-income earners. </p>
<p>They normally avoid explicit talk of class, redistribution and trade unions. None of them critiques the market economy – they just want it to be fairer. Once in office, the gains for workers from a labour government will be incremental, not transformational.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-mainstream-media-matter-in-an-election-campaign-spoiler-more-than-you-might-think-180780">How much do mainstream media matter in an election campaign? (Spoiler: more than you might think)</a>
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<p>One can see this in New Zealand. The pandemic has meant a major detour, but Ardern hasn’t made great progress towards her avowed social goals: getting everyone into <a href="https://www.massey.ac.nz/massey/fms/Colleges/College%20of%20Business/School%20of%20Economics%20&%20Finance/research-outputs/mureau/home-affordability/Home%20Affordability%20Report%20Q4%202021.pdf?FA6552978ED20FEB5522D94A5D1A7864">an affordable home</a> and reducing <a href="https://www.cpag.org.nz/what-the-annual-child-poverty-stats-tell/">child poverty</a>. The gains she can cite are incremental at best. </p>
<p>Under Albanese, the ALP removed some politically troublesome tax policies which had originally been intended to deliver greater fairness. Labor reversed its 2019 policy positions on negative gearing, capital gains tax and franking credits. Further, Albanese announced <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-has-dropped-labors-pledge-to-boost-jobseeker-with-unemployment-low-is-that-actually-fair-enough-181256">no lift in the unemployment benefit</a> under Labor, and also signed up to the Coalition’s stage three tax cuts – in effect removing an entire income tax bracket.</p>
<p>In the campaign he presents himself as professional, “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-labor-can-win-the-2022-election-179750">reasonable</a>” and a safe pair of hands – but above all, not radical. There have been some “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/albanese-covid-19-diagnosis-upends-labor-campaign/101007156">gaffes and stumbles</a>” and then a positive COVID test, but the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-polling-at-the-campaign-s-halfway-mark-20220501-p5ahiv.html">latest polls</a> will be reassuring.</p>
<h2>A thin ideological platform</h2>
<p>One impact of the pandemic has been a return of strong governmental action backed by borrowing. At the state level, premiers (notably Labor premiers) have gained credit for taking more decisive (or less indecisive) actions to prevent spread of the disease, reduce pressures on hospitals and save lives. </p>
<p>New Zealand Labour’s exemplary performance in disease control showed how a government can be rewarded electorally for this – although recent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election">opinion polls</a> show Ardern’s government could be beaten by a centre-right coalition next year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-labor-wins-he-is-set-to-become-treasurer-so-who-is-jim-chalmers-180138">If Labor wins, he is set to become treasurer. So who is Jim Chalmers?</a>
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<p>Ardern’s commitment to lift the minimum wage, and Starmer’s and Albanese’s focus on job security exemplify the incremental approach that’s focused on workers but doesn’t want to “frighten the horses” of capitalism.</p>
<p>Labour leaders have to work harder than their centre-right opponents to convince voters they’re not anti-business, that they understand macroeconomic policy and that they won’t get too tax-hungry – and yet also appeal to those for whom “economy” might mean how the next paycheck will cover rent and groceries. </p>
<p>Labour parties now find themselves on a thin ideological platform, anxious not to be an easy target for their pro-business opponents, especially during an election campaign. </p>
<p>An attenuated social-democratic value base is all that’s left now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anxious not to be easy targets for their pro-business opponents, labour parties everywhere now run on a ‘thin ideological platform’. Anthony Albanese’s ALP is no exception.Rob Manwaring, Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityCharles Lees, Professor of Government, Flinders UniversityGrant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822302022-05-03T05:42:43Z2022-05-03T05:42:43ZHow do the major parties rate on Medicare? We asked 5 experts<p>Medicare has been mentioned a lot this election campaign but we’ve seen relatively few substantial policy announcements from the major parties. </p>
<p>Voters want improvements to Medicare and the health system. More than 13% of respondents to The Conversation’s #SetTheAgenda <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-the-environment-and-the-cost-of-living-top-the-settheagenda-poll-181933">poll</a> said health was one of the issues having the greatest impact on their life right now. Cost of living pressures were also a key concern.</p>
<p>As one respondent said, candidates should be talking about “increasing Medicare rebates to reduce gap payments” as they compete for votes, while another saw improving “rural and regional access to high quality care” as the key issue. </p>
<p>So what have the major parties committed to? And is this enough? We asked five experts to analyse and grade the major parties’ Medicare policies – from A for top marks to F for a failed effort.</p>
<p><strong>Here are their detailed responses:</strong></p>
<h2>Coalition</h2>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-685" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/685/639deebdb8380371c52a32f61d62fee2a9bf832c/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Labor</h2>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-686" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/686/87a1f280dfc8b73fb693529120dbec7c5891c1ca/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182230/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Gillespie receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Russell worked as a policy advisor on health and related issues for the federal Australian Labor Party from 2002 to 2007.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Norman receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Research Council, and the Medical Research Future Fund.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rosemary V Calder has received funding from the Australian government Department of Health. She has worked for both the Coalition and Labor governments, and was head of the Office for the Status of Women under the Howard government.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Duckett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Medicare has been mentioned a lot this election campaign. But what have the major parties actually promised? Five experts grade their policies.Jim Gillespie, Associate Professor in Health Policy, Menzies Centre for Health Policy & Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneyLesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyRichard Norman, Associate Professor in Health Economics, Curtin UniversityRosemary V Calder, Professor, Health Policy, Victoria UniversityStephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822362022-04-29T07:30:50Z2022-04-29T07:30:50ZBelow the Line: Will different cultural groups favour one side of politics this federal election? – podcast<p>Is there any such thing as the so-called “ethnic vote” in a country as multicultural as Australia? Do different cultural groups favour one side of politics over another? For instance, in Victoria’s most marginal seat of Chisholm, will the Hong Kong-born Liberal MP Gladys Liu be advantaged by the Chinese diaspora living in her electorate?</p>
<p>In the latest episode of Below the Line, hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, we talk to Chinese media expert Wilfred Wang from the University of Melbourne to understand why there are no easy answers to these questions.</p>
<p>Andrea Carson asks if a negative Labor ad circulating online about Liu’s connections to China – which Prime Minister Scott Morrison called “sewer tactics” – will harm her electoral prospects. </p>
<p>“It’s unlikely,” Dr Wang explains, because Chinese Australians do not vote uniformly, with their support fragmented across the major parties and the Greens.</p>
<p>He also says there is little evidence from 2019 that Liberal election messages on the Chinese online platform WeChat played a big role in Liu’s 2019 electoral success. </p>
<p>“WeChat didn’t play such a vital role in shaping Chinese Australians’ votes, even for those voters from mainland China,” says Dr Wang, contradicting some of the party and media speculation at the time.</p>
<p>To read Dr Wang’s forthcoming article on misinformation targeting migrant communities, which is mentioned in the program, visit his <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wilfred-yang-wang-810552">author profile</a> early next week or <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-1?utm_campaign=System&utm_content=newsletter&utm_medium=TopBar&utm_source=theconversation.com">subscribe to our daily newsletter</a> to be alerted as soon as it goes live.</p>
<p>As Simon Jackman notes, the top 10 seats with the highest proportions of non-English speakers are in Melbourne and Sydney, and he reminds us that more research needs to be done to understand these ethnic voting patterns. Anika Gauja says this is further complicated by shifts in immigration demographics, with a big influx of Indian migrants in the past decade, which both sides of politics are trying to capitalise on.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese has returned to the campaign trail after a week in isolation with COVID-19 – but how much of a difference did his physical absence make to communication Labor’s messages to voters? Less than the Coalition would have liked, conclude our expert panel.</p>
<p>Finally, Jon asks why Scott Morrison and his team have already said “yes” to a second leaders debate on May 8 (Mother’s Day) with Channel Nine, but Labor is yet to commit? What does this tell us about how the Liberal party might see its own electoral prospects?</p>
<p>Below the Line is a limited-edition election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.</p>
<p>Image credit: James Ross/AAP</p>
<p>Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel speak to a Chinese media expert about how the Chinese-Australian community is being courted in the campaign.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1815952022-04-28T20:02:15Z2022-04-28T20:02:15ZRising out-of-pocket health costs are a worry. But the major parties have barely mentioned it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459931/original/file-20220427-18-i0jg5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C1%2C995%2C664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sad-black-woman-near-window-reading-1314448082">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rising out-of-pocket costs for health care is an important issue the major parties have not yet substantially addressed during the election campaign.</p>
<p>We heard just this week how health-care costs are rising <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-hits-an-extraordinary-5-1-how-long-until-mortgage-rates-climb-181832">faster than</a> other costs of living pressures.
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release#key-statistics">Health-care costs</a> are also rising faster than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/dec-2021">wages</a>. The rising cost of specialists’ fees, in particular, are a concern. So, many Australian families are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, a major consumer survey <a href="https://healthsystemsustainability.com.au/the-voice-of-australian-health-consumers/">found</a> 30% of people with chronic conditions were not confident they could afford needed health care if they became seriously ill; 14% could not pay for health care or medicine because of a shortage of money.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-hits-5-1-how-long-until-mortgage-rates-climb-181832">Inflation hits 5.1%. How long until mortgage rates climb?</a>
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<h2>Out-of-pocket costs are rising</h2>
<p>Out-of-pocket health-care costs cover a range of expenses not covered by Medicare or private health insurance, such as doctors’ fees for consultations and surgery.</p>
<p>Only 35.1% of specialist consultations were <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/Medicare%20Statistics-1">bulk billed in 2020-21</a> compared with 88.8% of GP services.</p>
<p>For private (multi-day) hospital care in 2019-20, <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/health-casemix-data-collections-publications-HCPAnnualReports">43.7% of separations</a> (hospital admissions that include procedures and operations) had no hospital or medical out-of-pocket cost.</p>
<p>Out-of-pocket costs are rising, <a href="https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/Medicare%20Statistics-1">Medicare statistics show</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/9617550/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:300px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
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<p>There is ample <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10198-013-0526-8">evidence</a> out-of-pocket costs reduce access to, and use of, health care. This more strongly affects people who need health care the most.</p>
<p>For instance, access to timely specialist care in Australia depends on your income and ability to pay.</p>
<p>Although richer people <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953618302041">use more specialist care</a>, on average, it is less-affluent people who have higher need for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851020302244?casa_token=UO9uqqBMiDgAAAAA:esi0pxqJkXVpBeI2qB2HwxiCBgTcL7VRMlcMDyp_Y0TaQo81MNugRrPRkGpbtsSR5ubUA5Kx_TA">health care</a>. Yet it is less-affluent people who have to wait to see a specialist in a public hospital. </p>
<p>High doctors’ fees have other consequences. They may provide skewed incentives to doctors, leading to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30947-3/fulltext">overdiagnosis and overtreatment</a>. Doctors may also flock to high-earning specialties while we have a shortage of GPs (who are paid <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/3809963/ANZ-Health-Sector-Report-2021.pdf">half as much</a> as specialists).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/specialists-are-free-to-set-their-fees-but-there-are-ways-to-ensure-patients-dont-get-ripped-off-97372">Specialists are free to set their fees, but there are ways to ensure patients don't get ripped off</a>
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<h2>What do the major parties promise?</h2>
<p>Health policies <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/federal-election-liberal-labor-nationals-greens-policy-positions/100482298">announced</a> by the major parties ahead of the federal election do not necessarily translate into lower out-of-pocket health costs, or focus on the most pressing issue.</p>
<p>The Coalition has promised to <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-pbs-safety-net-and-is-it-really-the-best-way-to-cut-the-cost-of-medicines-180315">lower the safety net threshold</a> for the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. This announcement, made in this year’s federal budget, would make medicines cheaper or free for people who need multiple scripts a year.</p>
<p>But this is an area where out-of-pocket costs have been falling for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/mar-2022/640105.xlsx">some time</a> compared with other areas of spending. So any announcement may have been better targeted at areas where out-of-pocket costs are growing more quickly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person using EFTPOS machine in pharmacy or clinic" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459940/original/file-20220427-18-rzq6w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Election policies announced so far don’t always address the biggest out-of-pocket costs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paying-pharmacy-407956288">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In any election there is always a focus on access to GPs and bulk billing. This includes Labor’s proposal for new <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-urgent-care-centres-are-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-not-a-panacea-181237">urgent care centres</a>, which would provide bulk billed services to take the pressure off emergency departments.</p>
<p>However, neither of the major parties are doing anything about the continuing and much larger increases in specialists’ out-of-pocket costs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-urgent-care-centres-are-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-not-a-panacea-181237">Labor’s urgent care centres are a step in the right direction – but not a panacea</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>Can informed patients make a difference?</h2>
<p>The Coalition introduced a price transparency <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/apps-and-tools/medical-costs-finder">website</a> <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-30/government-health-website-out-of-pocket-hospital-costs/11832410">in 2019</a> that provides estimates of out-of-pocket costs for private hospital care, with plans for doctors to voluntarily upload their fees. Some <a href="https://www.medibank.com.au/health-support/hospital-assist/costs/">private health insurers</a> also have such websites.</p>
<p>However, these websites rely entirely on consumers doing the “leg work” by shopping around to reduce their out-of-pocket costs. The assumption is that by providing consumers with more information, they will make better choices. But this is too simplistic because information can difficult to get and understand, and these websites don’t include data on the quality of care.</p>
<p><a href="https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/items/a0d05155-4781-59fa-bebd-5a5565c3012d">Our review</a> on price transparency websites in health care shows <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-more-than-a-website-to-stop-australians-paying-exorbitant-out-of-pocket-health-costs-108740">they may not work</a> for consumers. Not all consumers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102716">can or want</a> to use them. There’s also the risk doctors could use these websites to see what other doctors are charging and increase their fees.</p>
<p>It could be better if these websites were used by GPs when referring patients to specialists. Patients can also be encouraged to ask about the out-of-pocket cost when booking an appointment or during the visit. </p>
<p>But this does not help patients who are usually in a vulnerable position, who want care quickly, do not have the information or time to shop around, and might think the care they receive will be affected if they ask about cost. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doctors-fees-shouldnt-just-be-transparent-they-should-be-fair-and-reasonable-100948">Doctors’ fees shouldn't just be transparent, they should be fair and reasonable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Can doctors make a difference?</h2>
<p>Doctors set their own fees and many use the Australian Medical Association fee schedule as guidance. They decide what fee to charge, whether to bulk bill, or whether to use gap cover provided by private health insurers for private hospital care. </p>
<p>At the moment it would require a brave politician to directly control doctors’ fees given the constitutional protections they have and the way Medicare and private health insurance were designed to provide subsidies to patients, not to directly pay doctors.</p>
<p>However, something the major parties can address is “bill shock”. Patients don’t always know the doctor’s fee before they visit, and in some circumstances don’t know in advance how much a procedure will cost.</p>
<p>If care involves many tests, visits and procedures over time by different doctors, then there will be a bill for each. This shifts all the financial risk to patients, something private health insurance was designed to handle. </p>
<p>At a minimum, doctors’s fees and out-of-pocket costs need to be bundled together and published as an upfront quote or range for the expected course of care. This is something that could be addressed by one of the major parties. </p>
<h2>What next?</h2>
<p>Addressing rising out-of-pocket health costs is a complex area linked closely to broader reform of the health-care system, which neither major party has promised to do anything about.</p>
<p>Without such reforms we’ll see Australians prioritising spending on food, housing and petrol over health care, in the current climate.</p>
<p>But Australia cannot afford to allow this to happen. As we have witnessed during the pandemic, an unhealthy population is not only bad for individuals, it’s bad for us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Scott receives funding from a research grant awarded by the Medibank Better Health Foundation on out of pocket costs and price transparency.</span></em></p>Health-care costs are continuing to rise faster than wages, so many Australian families are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up.Anthony Scott, Professor of health economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820382022-04-27T01:21:22Z2022-04-27T01:21:22ZBelow the Line: Former independent Cathy McGowan hits back at John Howard’s ‘anti-Liberal groupies’ jibe – podcast<p>Former independent federal MP Cathy McGowan has hit back at John Howard’s description of independent candidates as “anti-Liberal groupies”.</p>
<p>In this Below the Line exclusive, McGowan says the former Prime Minister’s use of the term was clearly meant to be derogatory. “I suspect someone has given it to him,” she said. “It doesn’t bring to mind the calibre of the people who are standing. If he is trying to talk to people in the leafy suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, and calling those candidates groupies, then he has missed the mark totally.”</p>
<p>McGowan argues that independents cannot be put into just one category. While some are high-profile, have branded themselves with the colour teal and receive funding from the Climate200 group to promote action on climate change, “there are orange and pink and yellow and other colours as well… There are at least 25
community independents running and you could not group them together.”</p>
<p>McGowan, who defied the odds and won the traditional Liberal seat of Indi (previously held by Liberal Sophie Mirabella), predicted as many as ten independents could get over the line on polling day. “There is an incredible sense across the country of disillusionment with the government, and people are desperate to send a message to both parties that they are not doing well enough, and the independents are putting their hand up as a very viable alternative,” she said.</p>
<p>If McGowan’s prediction came true, independents would likely hold the balance of power in the lower house, forcing a minority government. Below the Line’s Anika Gauja says working with such a large crossbench would be “unprecedented in Australian federal politics”. And if the independents do poll well, Simon Jackman explains it may make counting the vote complicated on election night, possibly slowing down the final result.</p>
<p>Our expert panel also discuss Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s recent comment that “the only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war”, the record number of female candidates this election (39%, up from 32% last time around), and large numbers of young people enrolling to vote at the last minute.</p>
<p>Below the Line is a twice-weekly election podcast hosted by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine and brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University.</p>
<p>Image credit: Diego Fedele/AAP </p>
<p>Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid consultant on polling data for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel speak to former independent MP Cathy McGowan about the independent candidates seeking office.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1817842022-04-22T04:35:10Z2022-04-22T04:35:10ZBelow the Line: Albanese has COVID, but Morrison is ‘blessed’ with an even bigger problem – podcast<p>When tennis superstar Dylan Alcott’s post rebuking the Prime Minister for his clumsy “blessed” comment is outperforming election news stories on social media, you know the leaders’ debate didn’t go as hoped for the Coalition.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison effectively lost a day of campaigning on Thursday, which he largely spent apologising to disability groups and families who were offended when he said he was “blessed” to have children without disability during Wednesday night’s leaders’ debate. Alcott posted, “Woke up this morning feeling very blessed to be disabled – I reckon my parents are pretty happy about it too.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1516925572386988032"}"></div></p>
<p>In this episode of Below the Line, host Jon Faine explores the political fallout from the debate and some policy highlights. Our expert panel consider what impact catching COVID and spending a week in isolation will have on Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s campaign. Anika Gauja says the virtual campaign will take off and it’s a good opportunity to hear more from Labor’s shadow ministers.</p>
<p>But why have we not seen more ministers and their political counterparts debating policies in the media, asks Faine? Do voters benefit from the media’s focus on the leaders, personalities and polls? Andrea Carson says The Conversation’s <a href="https://ptdm5dk15s2.typeform.com/to/Kmxpj6fp?typeform-source=t.co">#SetTheAgenda survey</a> is a good example of putting voters ahead of the interests of media proprietors and getting away from “horse race” coverage.</p>
<p>Finally, listen to what we make of the Solomon Islands’ security pact with China. Simon Jackman says it’s a major setback for the Coalition’s election campaign and not in Australia’s foreign policy interests.</p>
<p>Below the Line is brought to you twice a week by The Conversation with La Trobe University.</p>
<p>Image: Toby Zerna/AAP</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In the latest episode of The Conversation's election podcast, our expert panel discuss the leaders' debate, Albanese's COVID diagnosis and how well the media are covering the campaign.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1814762022-04-19T06:55:05Z2022-04-19T06:55:05ZBelow the Line: Will anyone watch the Morrison vs Albanese debate? And will a transphobia debate divide the Liberals? – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458528/original/file-20220419-11-c01pkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5568%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Remember those classic lines that have come out of election debates? Recall 2013 when Tony Abbott asked the audience, “Does this guy [Kevin Rudd] ever shut up?” Or Bill Shorten in 2019 describing Scott Morrison as a “classic space invader?” Or back in 1993 when Paul Keating told John Hewson his costing of the proposed GST was like “a magic pudding?”</p>
<p>In our fourth episode of the Below the Line podcast, host Jon Faine asks if election debates still matter. Audience numbers have dropped significantly since 1993, when 71% of Australians surveyed said they tuned in. By 2016, viewership was down to 21%.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458534/original/file-20220419-23-c01pkq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This sharp decline in the proportion of Australians who watch an election debate is confirmed by Australian Election Study data.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first debate for the 2022 federal election campaign is scheduled for April 19 on Sky News, hosted in partnership with the Courier Mail. 100 undecided voters will pose questions to both major party leaders. </p>
<p>Simon Jackman and Anika Gauja remind us that while not many people tune in, debates can be dangerous for leaders if they stumble or fail to recall policy details. These “fails” then trend on social media. For example, there might be some tricky questions on climate change given Brisbane, where the debate is being held, was recently hit by devasting floods.</p>
<p>While audience numbers might be small, they capture some voting demographics which both major parties are targetting. Andrea Carson points out that Sky News is broadcast on the free-to-air WIN TV Network and Southern Cross Austereo across
regional New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland. Television ratings data tells us that these audiences are older, and polling data tells us they are more likely to be supporting the Coalition than Labor.</p>
<p>Our expert panel also discuss Anthony Albanese’s polarising appearance at the BluesFest musical festival in Byron Bay, and the surfacing of controversial comments about transgender people made by the Liberal candidate for the Sydney-based seat of Warringah.</p>
<p>Below the Line is an election podcast brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University up until the vote is counted.</p>
<p>Image: Lukas Coch/AAP</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181476/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In the fourth episode of our new election podcast, our panel discuss Anthony Albanese's visit to BluesFest, a Liberal's controversial comments on trans issues and whether anyone watches live debates.Benjamin Clark, Audience Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1811942022-04-14T03:31:55Z2022-04-14T03:31:55ZPast policies have created barriers to voting in remote First Nations communities<p>The rate of voter participation in federal elections by people living in remote Indigenous communities has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">lower than the national average</a> since First Nations people were granted the right to vote in 1962. In recent years, the rate has been in <a href="http://doi.org/10.22459/DAER.05.2012;%20http://doi.org/10.25911/5df209771dd57">decline</a>. Rates are lowest in the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>The low rate of participation among First Nations people living in remote communities could affect the lower house election results in the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari. Warren Snowden has stepped down after 20 years holding the seat.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-election-could-affect-the-future-of-a-first-nations-voice-to-parliament-180556">How the election could affect the future of a First Nations Voice to Parliament</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Determining rates of voter participation</h2>
<p>Measuring the number of First Nations people (or any particular demographic group) who vote in federal elections is challenging. Electoral rolls do not include information about cultural identity. Census figures, which could be used as a basis for comparison against voter turnout rates, are imprecise.</p>
<p>Data from the 2005 NT Assembly general election <a href="http://doi.org/10.22459/DAER.05.2012;%20https:/press.anu.edu.au/publications/directions-australian-electoral-reform">show</a> voting rates were 20% lower in electorates with the highest Indigenous populations. </p>
<p>In his study of the 2019 federal election, Australian National University researcher <a href="http://doi.org/10.25911/5df209771dd57">Will Sanders</a> found</p>
<blockquote>
<p>perhaps only half of eligible Aboriginal citizens […] may be utilising their right to vote.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Reports from the Northern Territory’s most recent Assembly election also found <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-21/poor-indigenous-voter-turnout-at-nt-election/12580688">record low</a><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-15/coronavirus-impacting-on-remote-voter-turnout-nt-election/12559066">turnout</a> across Indigenous communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">Research</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.25911/5df209771dd57">shows</a> rates of informal votes are also higher in remote Indigenous communities.</p>
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<h2>Barriers to First Nations people voting</h2>
<p>Decisions made at the federal level over the last three decades appear to have provided significant obstacles to voting in some First Nations communities.</p>
<p>First is the 1996 abolition of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Election Education and Information Service. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">Two</a> <a href="http://doi.org/10.22459/DAER.05.2012;%20https:/press.anu.edu.au/publications/directions-australian-electoral-reform">studies</a> point to this abolition as a potential reason for a decline in voting rates in remote Indigenous communities since the mid-nineties. </p>
<p>Established in 1979, this service existed specifically to increase voter registration rates among First Nations people. This was done by, for example, providing voter education and election materials in Indigenous languages.</p>
<p>The second decision was the 2005 abolition of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission. </p>
<p>First Nations people participated in five of the Commission’s elections administered by the same Australian Electoral Commission responsible for federal elections. Although voting was voluntary, <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/41511/3/2003_DP252.pdf">analysis</a> shows participation was higher in northern and central Australia than in southern Australia.</p>
<p>The third relevant policy change was the passage of the 2006 Electoral Integrity Bill. This introduced more stringent rules for the identification required to vote, making it more difficult for people in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">at least one remote community</a> to register to vote. </p>
<p>The Morrison government’s unsuccessful 2021 proposal to introduce even tougher <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7488468/govt-accused-of-trumpist-move-to-suppress-voting/?cs=14264">voter identification laws</a> would likely <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/27/proposed-voter-id-laws-real-threat-to-rights-of-indigenous-australians-and-people-without-homes">exacerbate this problem</a>.</p>
<p>The fourth policy decision was a 2012 change to the Commonwealth Electoral Act, known as the “Federal Direct Enrolment and Update”.</p>
<p>This enabled the Australian Electoral Commission to register eligible Australians to vote based on information available through several government agencies. These include Centrelink/the Department of Human Services, the Australian Taxation Office, and the National Exchange of Vehicle and Driver Information Service. </p>
<p>But the Electoral Commission has <a href="http://doi.org/10.25911/5df209771dd57">chosen not to use this mechanism for enrolment in parts of Australia</a> where mail is sent to a single community address (“mail exclusion areas”). </p>
<p>This means people living in many remote communities are not automatically added to the electoral roll, unlike most of the rest of Australia.</p>
<p>West Arnhem Regional Council mayor Matthew Ryan and Yalu Aboriginal Corporation chairman Ross Mandi launched an official complaint to the Australian Human Rights Commissioner over this issue in June last year.</p>
<p>They <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-19/nt-voters-racial-discrimination-human-rights-commission/100227762">argued</a> failure to apply the Federal Direct Enrolment and Update in remote communities represents a breach of the Racial Discrimination Act. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">survey</a> of residents in one remote community on South Australia’s APY lands found a lack of information contributed to low participation in elections. </p>
<p>Obstacles included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a lack of materials available in appropriate languages</p></li>
<li><p>uncertainty about how to cast a formal vote</p></li>
<li><p>problems related to literacy, and</p></li>
<li><p>a lack of appropriate identification necessary to enrol.</p></li>
</ul>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-voter-id-requirements-could-exclude-the-most-vulnerable-citizens-especially-first-nations-people-170797">Why voter ID requirements could exclude the most vulnerable citizens, especially First Nations people</a>
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<p>In October last year, the Australian Electoral Commission announced new funding for its <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2021/10-28.htm">Indigenous Electoral Participation program</a> with the aim of increasing enrolment rates; the upcoming election will show if the program is working.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/does-the-pre-election-budget-address-ways-to-realistically-close-the-gap-for-indigenous-people-180312">Does the pre-election budget address ways to realistically 'close the gap' for Indigenous people?</a>
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<h2>Lingiari</h2>
<p>Given that voting is compulsory in Australia, non-participation is a concern in any election. But these issues are likely to be particularly relevant in the 2022 federal election, at least in the seat of Lingiari. </p>
<p>Lingiari covers all of the Northern Territory outside the greater Darwin/Palmerston area. So it is the one House of Representatives division where Indigenous Australians (many of them living in remote communities) have clear electoral <a href="http://doi.org/10.25911/5df209771dd57">power</a>. </p>
<p>Providing more mobile polling booths could help make voting easier for people in remote Indigenous communities. Currently, these booths can be present for as little as two hours during an entire election period.</p>
<p>There is also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2010.01552.x">evidence</a> Indigenous people are more likely to vote in elections for Indigenous candidates, and for candidates who have visited their community. </p>
<p>Warren Snowden has represented the electorate since its creation in 2001, but he is not contesting this election; the seat is up for grabs.</p>
<p>Indigenous people will determine who takes Snowden’s place. But how many of them vote may be limited by their ability to enrol, the availability of information in an appropriate language, and access a polling booth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rate of voter participation in federal elections by people living in remote Indigenous communities have been in decline. Past policies have put obstacles in place, and these need to be addressed.Morgan Harrington, Research Fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805562022-04-12T19:59:11Z2022-04-12T19:59:11ZHow the election could affect the future of a First Nations Voice to Parliament<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457272/original/file-20220411-21-xi5gwx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/australian-parliament-house-canberra-85527103">shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The result of the federal election will be key for a voice to parliament protected by the Constitution as called for by the <a href="https://ulurustatement.org/">Uluru Statement from the Heart</a>. The election will also be crucial for Indigenous affairs more broadly. </p>
<p>The Uluru Statement calls for structural reform of the Australian Constitution. This means a First Nations Voice to Parliament so Indigenous peoples can be appropriately recognised and have a say about the laws and policies that affect them. The second step of the Uluru Statement is a Makarrata Commission to oversee a process of agreement-making (treaty) and truth-telling. </p>
<p>Scott Morrison acknowledged significant problems with past government approaches to Indigenous affairs in his <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-closing-gap-statement-parliament">2019 Closing the Gap</a> address. Morrison promised to do things differently, </p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“Despite the best of intentions; investments in new programs; and bi-partisan goodwill, Closing the Gap has never really been a partnership with Indigenous people. We perpetuated an ingrained way of thinking, passed down over two centuries and more, and it was the belief that we knew better than our Indigenous peoples. We don’t.</em>”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Following details of these failures, including how closing the gap targets have been set, Morrison promised, </p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>“There remains much to do. And we will do it differently</em>”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Morrison’s promise however has proven lacklustre. This is despite the much-praised Council of Australian Governments <a href="https://coalitionofpeaks.org.au/the-partnership-agreement/">partnership</a> with the Coalition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Community-Controlled Peak Organisations (the Coalition of Peaks). This partnership produced the re-negotiated closing the gap <a href="https://www.closingthegap.gov.au/national-agreement">agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Despite these promises, First Nations communities have witnessed much of the same, with advice being ignored and funding cut. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/30/federal-budget-continues-unconscionable-failure-to-close-the-gap-in-indigenous-health">Pat Turner</a>, CEO of the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation, described the recent budget as “business as usual” that won’t help close the gap.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/non-indigenous-australians-shouldnt-fear-a-first-nations-voice-to-parliament-176675">Non-Indigenous Australians shouldn't fear a First Nations Voice to Parliament</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<h2>The current government’s plans around a voice to parliament</h2>
<p>The current government has made its intention to pursue a legislated voice to government clear. This was confirmed with <a href="https://ministers.pmc.gov.au/wyatt/2022/2022-23-budget-delivering-stronger-future-indigenous-australians">A$31.8 million</a> being allocated in the budget to the next stage of local and regional voice structures following the government’s final Voice Co-Design report. If the government is re-elected, we can expect voice legislation to be introduced. </p>
<p>The pursuit of a legislated body before constitutional reform is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-indigenous-voice-must-be-enshrined-in-our-constitution-heres-why-153635">mistake</a>. It is contrary to the <a href="https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/view-the-statement/">Uluru Statement</a> and the support that was received by the government’s own process for constitutional enshrinement. </p>
<p>The government legislating a model without first enshrining the First Nations Voice in the Constitution ignores how important structural reform is. Australia’s institutions can only make real and lasting change in Indigenous affairs by empowering First Nations people to achieve meaningful and effective treaty and truth-telling outcomes.</p>
<p>However there are issues with the government’s Voice Co-Design <a href="https://voice.niaa.gov.au/final-report">report</a> and the limited legislated voice model it is pursuing. The proposed model will gag Indigenous communities by restricting what they can and can’t raise to the national level. This means issues that involve local or state matters cannot be elevated to the national body. Elevating matters to the national body and using its position and resources may be exactly what is required to force change.</p>
<p>The current proposed models state the government will decide what is a local issue and when advice may be given. This will further entrench Indigenous dis-empowerment and limit government accountability. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/1967-referendum">1967 referendum</a> was supposed to address this very issue. The Commonwealth were given the power by the most successful referendum in Australian history to legislate for Indigenous peoples and address the failure and inaction of state governments. And yet the federal government will not make use of this power to support First Nations voices in state governments.</p>
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<h2>Where does Labor stand?</h2>
<p>The opposition under Anthony Albanese and Linda Burney has promised to implement the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full. This was confirmed in Albanese’s <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/budget-reply-2022">budget reply speech</a> where the opposition leader stated, </p>
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<p><em>“I want to build a strong Australia […] An Australia that embraces the generous Uluru Statement from the Heart, including a constitutionally recognised Indigenous Voice to Parliament.”</em></p>
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<p>Labor has said it is committed to a referendum in its first year of parliament but has said it would look to simultaneously pursue the implementation of a <a href="https://www.lindaburney.com.au/media-releases/2022/3/31/only-labor-will-support-the-uluru-statement-in-full">Makarrata Commission</a>. This is problematic because this does not follow the sequence set out in the Uluru Statement from the Heart. </p>
<p>Beginning a Makarrata Commission in the current climate would mean relying on the same institutions Indigenous affairs are currently having issues with. One example of this is the new closing the gap agreement with the Coalition of Peaks that has been mostly ignored. As a result, gaps in health, education and socio-economic status in First Nations communities continue to exist.</p>
<p>Labor has made other promising commitments since the last federal election. These include earlier promises to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-24/fact-check-cashless-debit-card-election-scare-alert/100932808">end</a> the cashless welfare card and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-enable-healing-theres-a-more-effective-way-to-close-the-gap-in-employment-in-remote-australia-165662">Community Development Program</a>. The Community Development Program has forced generations of unemployed Indigenous peoples to work for less than minimum wage to receive support. It’s being scrapped by the government in favour of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/13/coalition-scraps-remote-work-for-the-dole-program-for-indigenous-australians">new employment program in 2023</a> but with little detail or promise of being any better for Indigenous communities. </p>
<p>Many have doubts over Labor’s commitments, particularly with strong memories of Labor’s continuance of the widely condemned <a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-years-on-its-time-we-learned-the-lessons-from-the-failed-northern-territory-intervention-79198">Northern Territory Intervention</a>. The Intervention, in response to conflated reports of child sex abuse in communities, communities that had otherwise been asking for the resources to address these issues over decades, saw the Australian Army sent into Indigenous communities without notice. </p>
<p>The Intervention forced the handover, management and leasing of Indigenous property and communities. It put in place strict restrictions on movement and prohibited goods such as alcohol and pornography, while also implementing strict income management. Despite the many known problems and backlash from the community, Labor continued the program under the new <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/09_2012/stronger-futures-booklet-jul2012.pdf">“Stronger Futures”</a> program in 2012. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-recognition-is-more-than-a-voice-to-government-its-a-matter-of-political-equality-154057">Indigenous recognition is more than a Voice to Government - it's a matter of political equality</a>
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<h2>The Greens and Independent parties</h2>
<p>The Greens have <a href="https://theconversation.com/lidia-thorpe-wants-to-shift-course-on-indigenous-recognition-heres-why-we-must-respect-the-uluru-statement-141609">troublingly revised</a> their support for the Uluru Statement, after handing their Indigenous affairs portfolio to Lidia Thorpe. This has resulted in the Greens insisting on a reversal of the sequence of reforms (Truth, Treaty and Voice rather than Voice, Treaty and Truth). Something contrary to the Uluru Statement and evidence of what will work in the Australian context. </p>
<p>Most <a href="https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/zali_steggall_mp_speaks_on_closing_the_gap">independents </a> are supportive of the Uluru Statement and have expressed their commitment publicly. This commitment is also shared with a general commitment to achieve lasting reform in Indigenous affairs.</p>
<p>National leadership on the Uluru Statement and Indigenous affairs is important if we are to make lasting, meaningful change. Unfortunately, the federal government has been actively limiting its role while disingenuously emphasising the importance of state and local groups. These groups are then heaped with the burden of responsibility without genuine empowerment, government support or resources to achieve change. </p>
<p>Professor Megan Davis has <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/march/1614517200/megan-davis/voice-crossroads">written</a> on this phenomenon. This policy practice sees the federal government walk back from their leadership in Indigenous affairs, something that was hard fought for in the successful 1967 referendum. <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/a-steep-climb-ahead-but-the-landscape-has-become-clearer-for-closing-the-gap/">Michael Dillon</a> from Australian National University’s Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research explains that: </p>
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<p><em>“It is the culmination of a decade-long push to shift Indigenous policy responsibilities away from the Commonwealth and towards the states and territories, and away from Indigenous-specific programs and towards mainstream programs.”</em></p>
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<p>States and territories are doing some good work, including work towards treaty in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory. Victoria is often said to be the only jurisdiction moving ahead with the Uluru Statement reforms. The new Malinauskas government in South Australia has recently made similar promises. </p>
<p>However, the Uluru Statement is deliberately a federal reform – it is a reform of our nation, and no state or territory can implement that alone. The reality of our political, legal and cultural institutions is woven with the character of our nation, including its hierarchical makeup. </p>
<p>Whoever wins the coming election will need to actively lead on improving Indigenous affairs if we are to make meaningful and lasting change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eddie Synot is affiliated with Indigenous Law Centre, UNSW that works in partnership with the Uluru Dialogue on progressing the Uluru Statement from the Heart. </span></em></p>The result of the federal election will be key for a voice to parliament protected by the Constitution as called for by the Uluru Statement from the Heart, and for Indigenous affairs more broadly.Eddie Synot, Lecturer, Griffith Law School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1810522022-04-12T04:06:44Z2022-04-12T04:06:44ZDid the Morrison government really prevent 40,000 COVID deaths? A health economist checks claims against facts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457561/original/file-20220412-37887-7kkv4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C188%2C2986%2C1306&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos-cdn.aap.com.au/Image/20220409001645307335?path=/aap_dev16/device/imagearc/2022/04-09/ae/41/e9/aapimage-7khi5pkyat0eci8t1cms_layout.jpg">AAP Image/Supplied by Office of the Prime Minister</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As an opening gambit to his re-election campaign, Prime Minister Scott Morrison claimed his handling of the pandemic had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/scott-morrison-takes-credit-for-saving-40000-lives-from-covid-in-social-media-pitch-for-re-election">saved 40,000 lives</a>.
This figure compares Australia over 2020 and 2021 with an average derived across higher-risk <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-38">predominantly northern hemisphere countries</a>.</p>
<p>He made similar comparisons to much higher-risk countries two years ago, at a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/scott-morrison-press-conference-coronavirus-crisis-modelling/12129550">press conference</a> on April 7 2020. Morrison and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy pointed to COVID graphs comparing Australian cases with modelling.</p>
<p>“We have so far avoided the many thousands, if not tens of thousands, of cases that may have otherwise occurred by this point across the Australian community — and indeed the many more fatalities that could also have occurred by this point,” he said then, urging Australians to “hold the course. We must lock in these gains.” </p>
<p>But a comparison with equivalent countries tells a very different story about the claim to have saved <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/12/fact-check-did-scott-morrison-really-save-40000-lives-from-covid">40,000 lives</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-you-might-need-a-4th-covid-vaccine-dose-this-winter-177811">Here's why you might need a 4th COVID vaccine dose this winter</a>
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<h2>The wrong comparison</h2>
<p>Given Australia’s very different environment as an island in the Oceania region and strong evidence transmission of initial COVID strains were highly seasonal and temperature dependant, the comparison with OECD countries in the northern hemisphere doesn’t hold.</p>
<p>Australian-led <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20036731v1.full.pdf">research</a> as early as February 2020 showed there were significant reductions in rates of COVID transmission associated with temperature. Higher average temperature was strongly associated with lower cases.</p>
<p>Those findings were confirmed by global research <a href="https://openres.ersjournals.com/content/6/4/00550-2020">comparing</a> 117 countries with more than 100 cases up to April 10 2020. That showed there was an average 5.4% reduction in case transmission for each degree increase in temperature above 0 centigrade and explained 72% of variation. </p>
<p>During 2020 this <a href="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202">was reflected</a> in rapidly increasing cases during European and North American winters. Numbers then tailed off in summer as temperatures rose while the South American winter saw case rates increase.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457556/original/file-20220412-36930-jglebd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Family members remember loved ones lost to COVID on the National Covid Memorial wall in London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos-cdn.aap.com.au/Image/20220330001641337583?path=/aap_dev3/device/imagearc/2022/03-30/d8/44/be/aapimage-7kc3ievebyt1iyfbqiry_layout.jpg">AP Photo/Alastair Grant</a></span>
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<h2>Comparing within our region</h2>
<p>As an island in the Oceania region, Australia’s 2020 outbreaks were largely restricted to those imported by air and sea travel, flourishing in the colder environments of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-26/coronavirus-covid-19-meatworks-abattoirs-victoria/12490178">meatworks</a>, until temperatures dropped with winter and outbreaks started to emerge in Tasmanian hospitals and in Melbourne – the coldest, high-density urban population centre in Australia.</p>
<p>A robust comparison for Australia over 2020 is with Oceania region countries that faced the same environmental risks with original variants. At December 21 2020, Australia had the highest COVID case rates (1,101 per million) and death rate (35 per million) of <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">all Oceania countries </a>, other than French Polynesia which opened up to cruise ships in August 2020. </p>
<p>However, Oceania’s climatic cloak of protection in 2020 would not last.</p>
<h2>New variants brought greater risks</h2>
<p>The Delta variant was much <a href="https://asm.org/Articles/2021/July/How-Dangerous-is-the-Delta-Variant-B-1-617-2">more transmissible</a> than the original COVID strains and able to transmit at <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357276555_Challenges_in_the_control_of_COVID-19_outbreaks_caused_by_the_delta_variant_during_periods_of_low_humidity_an_observational_study_in_Sydney_Australia">higher temperatures</a>. This was clear from the catastrophic spread that occurred at the <a href="https://qz.com/india/2024190/how-dangerous-are-covid-19-delta-and-delta-plus-variants/">height of the Indian summer</a> in April and May of 2021.</p>
<p>When the Delta outbreak emerged in Sydney in June 2021 from an unvaccinated limousine driver, less than 4% of the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-fully-vaccinated-covid?country=%7EAUS">Australian population</a> was double-dose vaccinated. The percentage in NSW was lower still, an at-risk population <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-re-sitting-ducks-the-case-for-a-short-sharp-lockdown-to-battle-delta-variant-20210624-p5840i.html">of sitting ducks</a>.</p>
<p>Yet right up until June 26 2021 Morrison <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/scott-morrison-confident-sydney-can-avoid-lockdown/uyv26vgqq">claimed</a> no lockdown was required to address the Delta outbreak, despite the absence of broad vaccine protection. </p>
<p>The low vaccination rate was attributable to reliance on one vaccine and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/australias-covid-vaccination-relying-on-opaque-private-contracts-worth-millions">contracting out</a> of many aspects of the rollout to a range of for-profit companies. Each aspect of the process proved <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-paying-companies-millions-to-roll-out-covid-vaccines-but-were-not-getting-enough-bang-for-our-buck-164550">poor value</a>, including vaccine rollout strategies and planning, vaccine distribution, delivery of vaccination programs in aged care, and systems meant to monitor these activities.</p>
<h2>Bottom line: the relevant comparison is to New Zealand</h2>
<p>The federal government’s claims of success show it did not learn the importance of the <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3111">precautionary principle</a> – a decision-making approach used in public health and environmental fields that urges caution when the science and risks are still uncertain – and wasted the luck Australia had in 2020.</p>
<p>To say there has been a saving of 40,000 lives relies on a comparison to the northern hemisphere at the beginning of the pandemic when Australia had a climatic cloak of protection and a safe distance from which to learn from overseas evidence.</p>
<p>New Zealand provides a more useful comparison if we’re to judge the success of the Morrison government’s pandemic handling. Our neighbour faced the closest set of climate and wider conditions to us and had similarly high levels of PCR testing (at least until Omicron overwhelmed testing in late 2021). On this comparison, Australia did not do well. </p>
<p>By September 15 2021, <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">COVID case rates</a> in Australia were almost four-fold that of NZ (3,038 versus 796 cases per million) with more than eight times the death rate (43 versus 5 five per million) – further puncturing the Morrison government’s 40,000 lives boast. </p>
<p>In November 2021, the federal government claimed it was <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/minister-hunts-press-conference-on-27-november-2021-the-omicron-variant-travel-restrictions-and-covid-19-vaccination">well prepared</a> for Omicron, but 70% of all <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics">COVID deaths in Australia</a> (4,579 out of 6,569 as of April 11) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2022/jan/21/australia-has-had-its-deadliest-day-yet-covid-omicron-heres-what-we-know-about-who-is-dying">occurred after that date</a>. The <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/">majority of those were in 2022</a> and are therefore not accounted for in the 2020 and 2021 comparison underlying the 40,000 lives saved claim.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-cases-are-rising-but-we-probably-wont-need-more-restrictions-unless-a-worse-variant-hits-179969">COVID cases are rising but we probably won't need more restrictions unless a worse variant hits</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Eckermann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s the comparison behind COVID-19 claims Scott Morrison has been making for two years. But comparing with countries at the same environmental risk shows Australia’s pandemic failures throughout.Simon Eckermann, Professor of Health Economics, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.