tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/biofuels-73/articlesBiofuels – The Conversation2023-05-02T18:24:43Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2045252023-05-02T18:24:43Z2023-05-02T18:24:43ZNZ industry burns the equivalent of 108 litres of petrol every second – that has to reduce to meet our carbon targets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523680/original/file-20230501-24-cgkejb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=34%2C19%2C2078%2C1393&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand burns the equivalent of 108 litres of petrol every second in coal and natural gas to generate heat for industrial processes. This burning of fossil fuels for industrial heat <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/aotearoa-new-zealands-first-emissions-reduction-plan/energy-and-industry/">generates 28%</a> of New Zealand’s energy-related emissions.</p>
<p>Industry needs vast quantities of heat for a wide range of activities, including to process staple foods, to manufacture materials for building homes, and to produce packaging for everyday goods. </p>
<p>But it’s very clear that to achieve a net-zero carbon economy by 2050, we need to ramp up the use of renewable energy technology to generate industrial heat, instead of burning fossil fuels. </p>
<p>The government is using a carrot-and-stick approach to drive the transition to low-carbon and renewable energy. The “stick” requires industry to <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/low-emissions-economy/decarbonising-process-heat/">phase out coal boilers</a> for low and medium temperature heat applications by 2037. New natural gas exploration has also <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-govt-ends-new-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration/TJ5KDR5BRBICTIVGB3UABI45UU/">effectively ended</a>, which will lead to future decreases in gas supply. </p>
<p>The “carrot” is the <a href="https://www.eeca.govt.nz/co-funding/industry-decarbonisation/gidi-contestable-co-funding/">Government Investment in Decarbonisation Initiatives</a> fund. The results so far are significant, with industry turning to tried and true solutions: energy efficiency gains, biomass boilers, electrode boilers and heat pumps, sometimes combined with electrical or thermal batteries. </p>
<p>These technologies are clean and green, but they are also scalable to industrial needs. Let’s have a look at what these different options are.</p>
<h2>4 options for industry</h2>
<p>The first option – increasing energy efficiency – is where all industrial businesses should start their decarbonisation journeys. It reduces the need to supply heat in the first place. Minimising heat demand also means replacement boilers can have smaller capacities, reducing investment costs. </p>
<p>The second option is to use biomass boilers. Over the past couple of years, biomass boilers have been rolled out to several large industrial sites. </p>
<p>These boilers burn biofuels, usually a byproduct of the wood processing sector such as sawdust, wood chips and wood pellets, to generate the required steam and hot water for a site. Fonterra, for example, is currently building a new 30-megawatt biomass boiler at its Waitoa site. </p>
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<p>Biomass boilers provide a like-for-like replacement for fossil fuel boilers. But their use is not straightforward. No one really knows what the future availability of low-cost biomass will be due to the rapid expansion of the market in recent years, uncertainty around biomass sources and increase in demand. </p>
<p>The third option is to use electrode boilers. These are cheap to install but they use electricity as the energy source. The cost of this heat is typically three times more expensive than from fossil fuels. Industry is also often exposed to the electricity spot market where price varies dramatically both daily and seasonally, which presents both a risk and opportunity. </p>
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<p>Dairy manufacturer and supplier Open Country Dairy, aided by “smart control” technology from Simply Energy, recently installed an electrode boiler alongside its existing coal boiler. The electrode boiler turns off when the electricity price is high, shifting load to coal, and turns back on when the price is sufficiently low. This is a cost-effective solution but invariably an interim measure as coal phases out. </p>
<p>The fourth option – heat pumps – uses a different type of technology. On paper, industrial heat pumps have the potential to achieve over two to three times the performance levels of biomass or electrode boilers, although often at lower heating temperatures. Better performance means proportionately lower operating costs. Current heat pump technology can service heating up to about 90°C. </p>
<p>Meat processing sites like ANZCO and Silver Fern Farms, both near Christchurch, are using heat pumps to recover and upgrade waste heat from their chillers to generate the hot water they need. This is another smart way of using conventional technology. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-could-biofuels-replace-all-fossil-fuels-in-new-zealand-162502">Climate explained: could biofuels replace all fossil fuels in New Zealand?</a>
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<p>In the future, we need heat pumps to far exceed 90°C to increase their applicability to a wider range of industrial site. In Europe, many current technology demonstration units can now provide heating up to 150°C using an HFO refrigerant (synthetic fluorinated greenhouse gases) or CO₂. </p>
<p>HFO refrigerants were positioned as the answer to ozone-depleting gases but recent research expresses concerns about them degrading into “forever chemicals” with serious implications for <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.0c00355">human and environmental health</a>. The European Union now plans to rapidly phase out and ban their use by 2026. </p>
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<p>MAN Energy Solutions, which has recently partnered with Fonterra, offers a CO₂ heat pump that can also generate hot water at 150°C at a heat-to-electricity-use performance ratio of nearly three. This means it only uses one third of the electricity to generate the same amount of heat as an electrode boiler. </p>
<p>These four options all have critical roles to play in decarbonising New Zealand industry. Different sites will demand different solutions that will often combine multiple approaches to achieve the most cost-efficient solution. </p>
<h2>Need for local solutions</h2>
<p>Traditionally, New Zealand has been an energy technology importer. However, high demand for cutting-edge boiler and heat pump technology in much larger markets in Europe and elsewhere could make it difficult for New Zealand businesses to access necessary plant and technical support without long wait times. </p>
<p>If we could develop and manufacture our own, we could provide customised solutions for New Zealand industry. Many of the associated “green” manufacturing jobs would also be located here at home.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-tap-in-to-an-underused-energy-source-wasted-heat-38955">Time to tap in to an underused energy source: wasted heat</a>
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<p>Decarbonising industrial heat presents a massive challenge but also an opportunity. The challenge is to make the energy transition quickly enough to limit climate change while keeping the energy costs sufficiently low to stay in business. </p>
<p>As we make this transition, we also need a paradigm shift in attitude and ambition towards research, development and manufacturing pathways for advanced technology to maximise the benefit to New Zealand Inc.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Gordon Walmsley receives funding from MBIE. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James K Carson receives funding from MBIE. </span></em></p>To meet New Zealand’s target of a net-zero carbon economy by 2050, industrial heat process will have to change. Here are the four main options.Timothy Gordon Walmsley, Senior Lecturer in Process and Energy Engineering, University of WaikatoJames K Carson, Associate Professor, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1899602022-09-15T20:03:38Z2022-09-15T20:03:38ZNew Zealand has announced a biofuel mandate to cut transport emissions, but that could be the worst option for the climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484473/original/file-20220914-20-iuvmlu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C152%2C2995%2C1742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hannah Peters/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Biofuels – and a broader bioeconomy – are key parts of New Zealand’s recently released first <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/emissions-reduction-plan/">emissions reduction plan</a>, particularly for transport, forestry and a transition to a more circular use of resources.</p>
<p>Work is moving fast, with a biofuel mandate for land transport to be <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/127286258/government-announces-biofuel-mandate-for-transport-sector">introduced</a> from April 2023 and a plan to transform the forestry industry currently under <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/52669-Draft-Industry-Transformation-Plan-web">consultation</a>.</p>
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<p>A bioeconomy is heralded as an opportunity to replace imported fossil fuels with carbon-neutral domestic biofuels and to create higher-value products from plantation forestry (much of which is currently exported as unprocessed logs) while supporting carbon sequestration at the same time.</p>
<p>New Zealand is not the only country thinking along these lines. Biofuels are part of a widespread strategy to address emissions from existing fossil-fueled vehicles, tens of millions of which are still being produced annually. They are also promoted for planes, ships and heavy trucks, often with few alternatives. </p>
<p>Both the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/whats-inflation-reduction-act">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, a landmark US law which aims to curb inflation by investing in domestic clean energy production, and the EU’s <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/green-deal/fit-for-55-the-eu-plan-for-a-green-transition/">Fit for 55 package</a>, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2021/biofuels">expand support</a> for biofuels through a combination of subsidies and mandates. In the International Energy Agency (<a href="https://www.iea.org/">IEA</a>)’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">Net Zero</a> scenario, global biofuel production quadruples by 2050, to supply 14% of transport energy.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a <a href="https://www.scionresearch.com/science/bioenergy/nz-biofuels-roadmap">string</a> of <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/41824/direct">government</a> <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/51007-NZ-Wood-Fibre-Futures-Project-Stage-Two-Final-Main-Report">reports</a>, combined with experience of the real-world impacts of biofuels thus far, point to several downsides and challenges, both economic and environmental.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/air-of-compromise-nzs-emissions-reduction-plan-reveals-a-climate-budget-thats-long-on-planning-short-on-strategy-181478">Air of compromise: NZ's Emissions Reduction Plan reveals a climate budget that’s long on planning, short on strategy</a>
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<h2>First-generation biofuels from food crops</h2>
<p>The risks of first-generation biofuels, made from crops grown on arable land, are well known. They are not due to the fuels themselves or their production, but their indirect effects of how the land would have been used otherwise.</p>
<p>Already, <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/06/23/most-of-the-worlds-grain-is-not-eaten-by-humans">10% of the world’s grain</a> is used for biofuels. This is at the heart of the “food-to-fuel” issue. This approach has been challenged because it could increase grain prices or, at the worst, lead to starvation. It has also led to agricultural expansion, often into ecologically sensitive areas. </p>
<p>Debated for years, it is now back in the spotlight as the effects of droughts in China, the US and Europe, combined with the war in Ukraine, push food prices up <a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">50%</a> on 2019-2020 levels.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-shrinking-fraction-of-the-worlds-major-crops-goes-to-feed-the-hungry-with-more-used-for-nonfood-purposes-181819">A shrinking fraction of the world's major crops goes to feed the hungry, with more used for nonfood purposes</a>
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<p>Palm oil has borne the brunt of criticism about landuse change, as vast areas of rainforest in Indonesia and Malaysia have been cleared for its production. The impact of such “induced landuse change” (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/">ILUC</a>) gives palm oil biofuel nearly <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/Final%20Report_GLOBIOM_publication.pdf">three times</a> the emissions of fossil fuel. </p>
<p>But palm oil is a substitute for many other vegetable oils. Therefore, biofuel production from other oils like rapeseed (canola) is also implicated in ILUC, as diverting rapeseed to fuel leads to more palm oil entering the food chain.</p>
<h2>Sustainability and credibility of feedstocks</h2>
<p>The EU has undergone a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338040371_The_European_Energy_Policy_for_2020-2030_RED_II_what_future_for_vegetable_oil_as_a_source_of_bioenergy">lengthy process</a> of strengthening the standards of its biofuel mandate. In the end, palm oil was the only feedstock listed as “high ILUC”, but was given a reprieve until 2030.</p>
<p>The cheapest biofuels with the biggest emissions savings are made from used cooking oil and beef tallow. But these feedstocks are in <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/41824/direct">limited supply</a> and open to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/industry-source-one-third-of-used-cooking-oil-in-europe-is-fraudulent/">fraud</a>. They also already have other uses, which again raises the issue of substitution. </p>
<p>Z Energy’s NZ$50m tallow biodiesel plant, opened in 2018, has been mothballed due to the rising cost of tallow. The company has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/471566/z-energy-abandons-uneconomic-biofuel-production">stopped work</a> on plans for a much larger plant.</p>
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<p>Since New Zealand’s biofuel mandate will initially be met solely by imports, questions of sustainability and certifiability of feedstocks will be crucial. It is concerning that landuse change will <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/18366-sustainable-biofuels-mandate-final-policy-design-proactiverelease-pdf">not be considered</a> when calculating emissions reductions.</p>
<p>The fuels will count as zero-emission in New Zealand, while the actual emissions from growing, fertilising, processing and transporting will take place overseas, likely in countries with weaker climate targets. Unless accounted for, this is carbon leakage by design.</p>
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<h2>Second-generation biofuels from inedible plant material</h2>
<p>For all these reasons, proponents are keen to talk up the prospect of second-generation biofuels, made from non-food crops. In New Zealand’s case, the main crop is pine trees. </p>
<p>Although there is some forestry waste available, much of it is currently left on site and would be expensive to collect and transport. The <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/51007-NZ-Wood-Fibre-Futures-Project-Stage-Two-Final-Main-Report">Wood Fibre Futures</a> report, commissioned by the government, focuses on logs-to-fuel, specifically “drop-in” fuels that can substitute directly for petrol, diesel or jet fuel.</p>
<p>However, there are <a href="https://www.ieabioenergy.com/installations/">no such plants</a> in commercial operation anywhere. The report calls the risks of such an unproved technology extreme, with little prospect for mitigation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biofuel-how-new-microalgae-technologies-can-hasten-the-end-of-our-reliance-on-oil-176723">Biofuel: how new microalgae technologies can hasten the end of our reliance on oil</a>
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<p>The economics are also challenging, in part because log prices are high due to the efficiency of the log export market. A plant capable of producing 150 million litres of drop-in fuels a year – just 1.5% of New Zealand’s liquid fuel demand – would cost $1.2 billion and have a negative rate of return. </p>
<p>To obtain an acceptable return, the government would need to pay for half the cost of the plant and the logs, and also subsidise (or enforce) a 50% higher sale price of the fuel. The report envisages such a plant being completed by 2028 in New Zealand.</p>
<p>A fundamental obstacle is that any such use has to compete with other uses – including sawn timber, wood chips and wood pellets – which are far simpler, more profitable and come with greater carbon benefits.</p>
<h2>Stop the mandate, strengthen alternatives</h2>
<p>For all these reasons, we have formed the interest group <a href="https://lowcarbonkapiti.org.nz/dont-burn-our-future-stop-the-nz-biofuels-obligation/">Don’t Burn Our Future</a>, which aims to stop New Zealand’s biofuel mandate.</p>
<p>As advocates of strong climate action, these are painful conclusions to reach. But we argue that for transport, the answer lies in the <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Discussion/DiscussiondocumentHikinateKohuparaKiamaurioraaiteiwiTransportEmissionsPathwaystoNetZeroby2050.pdf">avoid/shift/improve</a> framework, which encourages people to drive less, shift necessary trips to other modes and make them less polluting. </p>
<p>Biofuels only enter in the third and least important step (improve) and even there, they are the worst option. </p>
<p>The transport transformations envisaged in the new climate plans for <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/greater-wellington-first-to-set-binding-climate-target?amp">Wellington</a> and <a href="https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/220815-Transport-Emissions-Reduction-Plan-Final-for-Adoption.pdf">Auckland</a> are heavily focused on avoidance and shifts to other modes. These options should be the priority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Callister is affiliated with Don’t burn our future: Stop the NZ biofuels obligation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan is affiliated with Don’t burn our future: Stop the NZ biofuels obligation. </span></em></p>Biofuels are heralded as a climate-friendly replacement of fossil fuels, but encouraging people to drive less and shift to other modes of transport would cut more emissions.Paul Callister, Senior Associate Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonRobert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832122022-05-17T20:00:53Z2022-05-17T20:00:53ZBucking the trend: Is there a future for ultra long-haul flights in a net zero carbon world?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463513/original/file-20220517-19-k4uldh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3988%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, Qantas announced two plans in direct conflict. In March, Australia’s largest airline group <a href="https://www.qantas.com/content/dam/qantas/pdfs/about-us/environment/qantas-group-climate-action-plan.pdf">went public</a> with the admirable goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and a 25% reduction by 2030 by using new clean fuels, boosting efficiency and using carbon offsets. For the aviation industry, this was a watershed moment, containing world-leading detail and bold links between executive pay and improved sustainability. </p>
<p>But only two months later, Qantas <a href="https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-announces-project-sunrise-aircraft-order-for-non-stop-flights-to-australia/">confirmed its order</a> for 12 new Airbus planes capable of ultra long-distance flights, making possible non-stop flights from Sydney and Melbourne to London or New York. </p>
<p>What’s the conflict? These long distance flights must carry substantially more fuel and, as a result, fewer passengers, making them markedly less efficient. </p>
<p>If the aviation industry heads down this route, it will be a backwards step in the fight against climate change. While Qantas intends these flights to be carbon neutral, this will have to involve carbon offsets given there are no other options at present. </p>
<p>As the world gets more serious about climate action, flights like this will come under scrutiny.</p>
<h2>Flying the furthest comes with a carbon cost</h2>
<p>For decades, Qantas has hoped to overcome Australia’s tyranny of distance, beginning ultra long-haul test flights as early as 1989. These tests didn’t translate into regular flights, however, leaving the door open to key competitor Singapore Airlines, which currently has the world’s top two ultra long flights.</p>
<p>Qantas seems determined to change that. In 2025, the carrier’s new Sydney-London non-stop flight will cover 17,800km non-stop to become the world’s longest flight. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/blue-sky-thinking-net-zero-aviation-is-more-than-a-flight-of-fantasy-171940">Blue-sky thinking: net-zero aviation is more than a flight of fantasy</a>
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<p>While it might seem like a single flight would produce less emissions, the opposite is true. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/bitstream/11475/1896/6/Steinegger_Fuel_Economy_as_a_Function_of_Weight_and_Distance_v1-1.pdf">most efficient</a> flights (based on fuel burned per kilometre) are those between 3,000 and 5,000km, depending on aircraft type. By contrast, non-stop ultra long haul flights produce more carbon emissions than two shorter journeys with a stop-over. </p>
<p>The reason is simple physics. Planes flying ultra long distances must carry lots of fuel, especially at take-off, to cover the later stages of the journey. For the new planes Qantas has ordered, it takes about 0.2kg of fuel to <a href="https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/handle/11475/1896">transport a kilo</a> a thousand kilometres. </p>
<p>Given the long distance, this means it’s not a very efficient use of fuel. Not only that, but the high fuel load means there is less space for passengers. </p>
<p>That gives an even less favourable result based on <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Carbonoffset/Pages/default.aspx">the metric</a> of carbon dioxide emitted per passenger-kilometre. For example, the non-stop flight from Auckland to Dubai of 14,193km produces 876kg of CO2 per person in economy class, whereas the same journey with a stop-over in Singapore would produce 772kg. Exact emission rates may differ due to flight paths, freight weight, and weather, among other issues. </p>
<p>So while a typical A350-900 seats between 300 and 350 passengers, Singapore Airline’s existing marathon flights using these planes can only carry half that, namely 161 passengers. Similarly, the planned Qantas flights would have just 238 passengers, 112 to 172 seats fewer than what Airbus recommends.</p>
<p>As you’d expect, less passengers increases the ticket cost and makes these flights more exclusive, adding to the problem that a small wealthy elite have a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307779">disproportionately high</a> environmental impact.</p>
<h2>Can long-haul ever be low carbon?</h2>
<p>Marathon non-stop flights stand in the way of a wider shift towards a low-emissions world. If airlines are serious about tackling their sector’s growing contribution to fossil fuel emissions, they must look to research into alternative fuels and technologies by programs like the EU’s <a href="https://www.clean-aviation.eu/clean-sky-2/programme-overview-and-structure">Clean Sky</a>. </p>
<p>These programs have shown sustainable fuels and new technologies are much better suited to shorter flights. Electric aircraft, for instance, are becoming viable for short flights in the near-term future. In Sydney, <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2021/12/13/electric-airplanes-to-start-taking-off-in-australia">electric seaplanes</a> will soon enter the short-hop sector, while hybrid-electric technology has the potential to support flights of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13272-017-0272-1">up to 1500km</a>, depending on progress in battery technology.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="electric plane" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463522/original/file-20220517-17-9ov5v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Electric planes are shaping up as a good solution for short flights.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Mitchell/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what about long distance? We have two options. One is hydrogen and the other is sustainable aviation fuels. </p>
<p>While there is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-get-real-amid-the-hydrogen-hype-lets-talk-about-what-will-actually-work-144579">huge amount of hype</a> around clean hydrogen at present, the reality is green hydrogen derived from renewable electricity currently makes up <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/5-things-you-should-know-about-green-hydrogen#:%7E:text=So%20what%20exactly%20is%20%22green,hydrogen%20produced%20using%20fossil%20fuels">just 1%</a> of all hydrogen we produce. We would need a monumental effort to scale up to fill the demand from aviation. </p>
<p>Another challenge is hydrogen’s low energy density, which will restrict flying range to an <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/quiet-and-green-why-hydrogen-planes-could-be-future-aviation">estimated maximum</a> of 7,000km by 2040. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-air-travel-by-small-amounts-each-year-could-level-off-the-climate-impact-171184">Reducing air travel by small amounts each year could level off the climate impact</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That leaves sustainable aviation fuel as the only option for long-haul flights. The airline industry is pinning their hopes on fuels derived either from biological feedstocks (used cooking oils or oil derived from algae)
or <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/the-future-of-flying-is-closer-than-ever-sustainable-fuel-is-the-key">produced synthetically</a>.</p>
<p>The sustainability of these fuels depends on the feedstock, the production process (which, again, will demand large amounts of renewable energy) and a detailed understanding of impacts on the atmosphere from any gases emitted. That suggests these fuels will likely be expensive, with volumes hard to secure to fully replace fossil fuels. Even so, these fuels will have to be part of aviation’s future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Algae in a test tube" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463515/original/file-20220517-17-d81zjf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Algae-derived oil is one possibility for sustainable aviation fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New ways of travel</h2>
<p>The way we <a href="https://theconversation.com/swedens-flight-free-movement-how-views-about-holiday-air-travel-are-changing-172560">think about flying</a> is changing, with climate impact <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/opportunities-for-industry-leaders-as-new-travelers-take-to-the-skies">front of mind</a> for many travellers. </p>
<p>In response, some countries have begun to ramp up their focus and infrastructure spending on rail travel, to encourage new travel patterns. The growing regenerative tourism movement – which emphasises deeper engagement with place and people – signals there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-borders-reopen-can-new-zealand-reset-from-high-volume-to-high-values-tourism-180298">real potential</a> to shift mass travel away from far-and-fast destinations to close-and-deep.</p>
<p>The role of flying in tourism is already changing, and it will change more in coming years. You can already glimpse this in the trends towards more climate-friendly travel closer to home. Soon, electric and hybrid planes will encourage shorter flights in a carbon-constrained world. </p>
<p>As for ultra long-haul flights, it is difficult to picture how these are compatible with the goal of net-zero emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susanne Becken receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is also a member of the Air New Zealand Sustainability Advisory Panel.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paresh Pant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ultra long-haul flights make it possible to go Sydney to London non-stop. But does the world need them, given they are more polluting and less efficient?Susanne Becken, Professor of Sustainable Tourism and Director, Griffith Institute for Tourism, Griffith UniversityParesh Pant, PhD Candidate and Sessional Academic, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1818192022-05-13T12:15:16Z2022-05-13T12:15:16ZA shrinking fraction of the world’s major crops goes to feed the hungry, with more used for nonfood purposes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461805/original/file-20220506-12-ven81z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4288%2C2843&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Harvesting soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Brazil exports soybeans and uses them domestically to make animal feed and biodiesel.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soybeans-are-harvested-at-fartura-farm-in-mato-grosso-state-news-photo/542626248">Paulo Fridman/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461817/original/file-20220506-24-jw9brq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rising competition for many of the world’s important crops is sending increasing amounts toward uses other than directly feeding people. These competing uses include making biofuels; converting crops into processing ingredients, such as livestock meal, hydrogenated oils and starches; and selling them on global markets to countries that can afford to pay for them. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00504-z">2022 study</a>, my co-authors and I estimated that in 2030, only 29% of the global harvests of 10 major crops may be directly consumed as food in the countries where they were produced, down from about 51% in the 1960s. We also project that, because of this trend, the world is unlikely to achieve a top sustainable development goal: <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal2">ending hunger by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>Another 16% of harvests of these crops in 2030 will be used as feed for livestock, along with significant portions of the crops that go to processing. This ultimately produces eggs, meat and milk – products that typically are eaten by middle- and upper-income people, rather than those who are undernourished. Diets in poor countries rely on staple foods like <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-living-in-a-poor-country-means-you-have-bad-food-choices-121993">rice, corn, bread</a> and <a href="https://www.ifpri.org/blog/impact-ukraine-crisis-global-vegetable-oil-market">vegetable oils</a>.</p>
<p>The crops that we studied – barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm, rapeseed (canola), rice, sorghum, soybean, sugar cane and wheat – together account for more than 80% of all calories from harvested crops. Our study shows that calorie production in these crops increased by more than 200% between the 1960s and the 2010s. </p>
<p>Today, however, harvests of crops for processing, exports and industrial uses are booming. By 2030, we estimate that processing, export and industrial-use crops will likely account for 50% of harvested calories worldwide. When we add the calories locked in crops used as animal feed, we calculate that by 2030, roughly 70% of all harvested calories of these top 10 crops will go to uses other than directly feeding hungry people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World maps showing increasing non-food usage of crops worldwide" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461803/original/file-20220506-2469-so7g9t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These two maps show how the use of 10 major food crops changed from the 1960s to the 2010s. In areas that change from blue and green to red and purple, crops increasingly are used for food processing, export and industrial uses (labeled ‘other’). One hectare equals about 2.5 acres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00504-z">Ray et al., 2022</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Serving the affluent, not the poor</h2>
<p>These profound changes show how and where agriculture and agribusiness are responding to the growth of the global middle class. As incomes rise, people demand more animal products and convenient processed foods. They also use more industrial products that contain plant-based ingredients, such as <a href="https://farm-energy.extension.org/what-are-some-of-the-most-common-crops-used-for-biofuel-production/">biofuels</a>, <a href="https://www.totalenergies-corbion.com/media/ijpb1qzl/totalenergiescorbionpla_whitepaper_foodstock_1-3.pdf">bioplastics</a> and <a href="https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/issues/311/ge-foods/pharmaceutical-crops">pharmaceuticals</a>.</p>
<p>Many crops grown for export, processing and industrial uses are specially bred varieties of the 10 major crops that we analyzed. For example, <a href="https://nebraskacorn.gov/issues-initiatives/your-food/field-corn-vs-food-corn/">only about 1% of corn grown is the U.S. is sweet corn</a>, the type that people eat fresh, frozen or canned. The rest is mostly field corn, which is used to make biofuels, animal feed and food additives.</p>
<p>Crops grown for these uses produce more calories per unit of land than those harvested for direct food use, and that gap is widening. In our study we calculated that industrial-use crops already yield twice as many calories as those harvested for direct food consumption, and their yield is increasing 2.5 times faster. </p>
<p>The amount of protein per unit of land from processing crops is twice that of food crops, and is increasing at 1.8 times the rate of food crops. Crops harvested for direct food consumption have had the lowest yields across all metrics of measurement and lowest rates of improvement. </p>
<h2>Grow more foods that feed the hungry</h2>
<p>What does this mean for reducing hunger? We estimate that by 2030, the world will be harvesting enough calories to feed its projected population – but it won’t be using most of those crops for direct food consumption. </p>
<p>According to our analysis, 48 countries will not produce enough calories within their borders to feed their populations. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, but they also include Asian nations such as Afghanistan and Pakistan and Caribbean countries such as Haiti. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1521842257120407554"}"></div></p>
<p>Scientists and agricultural experts have worked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/mind-the-gaps-reducing-hunger-by-improving-yields-on-small-farms-67287">increase the productivity of food crops</a> in countries where many people are undernourished, but the gains so far have not been enough. There may be ways to persuade wealthier nations to raise more food crops and divert that extra output to undernourished countries, but this would be a short-term solution. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I believe the broader goal should be raising more crops in food-insecure countries that are used directly as food, and increasing their yields. <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal1">Ending poverty</a>, the U.N.’s top sustainable development goal, will also enable countries that can’t produce enough food to meet their domestic needs to import it from other suppliers. Without more focus on the needs of the world’s undernourished people, eliminating hunger will remain a distant goal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181819/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment supported the publication of this work.</span></em></p>A new study finds that by 2030, less than one-third of the world’s major crop harvests will go directly to feed people.Deepak Ray, Senior Scientist, University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1813942022-05-05T12:41:46Z2022-05-05T12:41:46ZAllowing E15 fuel year-round won’t increase sales very much, but it’s a symbolic victory for corn ethanol advocates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460820/original/file-20220502-22-8zhz3l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2982%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ethanol refinery in Chancellor, South Dakota.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarbonCapturePipelines/2a36a21cb5b6468a9c796fc5d0e1d42e/photo">AP Photo/Stephen Groves</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As part of efforts to dampen high gasoline prices, the Biden administration is temporarily allowing gas stations to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/12/fact-sheet-using-homegrown-biofuels-to-address-putins-price-hike-at-the-pump-and-lower-costs-for-american-families/">sell a special fuel blend called E15, containing 15% ethanol, year-round</a>. Under the Clean Air Act, E15 cannot be sold in summer because it evaporates more readily in warm weather and can worsen air pollution. Aaron Smith, professor of agricultural economics at the University of California, Davis, explains how E15 differs from the E10 that is blended into most gasoline sold nationwide, and the general environmental impacts of corn-based ethanol.</em></p>
<h2>What is E15 and where is it used?</h2>
<p>Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol or grain alcohol, has long been a potential alternative to gasoline. Henry Ford <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1979/08/05/the-godfather-of-gasohol-ishenry-ford/ca98c17b-3112-4f80-b98a-7b06ed6a735b/">advocated for it in the 1920s</a>, but it wasn’t used much until the early 2000s because it was too expensive. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106316/us-share-ethanol-production-by-feedstock-type/">More than 93%</a> of the ethanol currently made in the U.S. comes from corn.</p>
<p>In 2007, amid concerns about high gas prices, energy security and climate change, Congress passed a law creating a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program">Renewable Fuel Standard</a>, which requires transportation fuels sold in the U.S. each year to contain certain quantities of biofuels, like ethanol and biodiesel. Under this policy, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26092">more than 95%</a> of all gasoline sold in the United States is E10 – a blend of 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol.</p>
<p>E15 contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. It is currently available in about <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_e15.html">2,300</a> of the <a href="https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/consumer-information/consumer-resources/service-station-faqs">145,000</a> gas stations in the United States, mainly in Midwestern states where most corn is grown and processed into ethanol.</p>
<p>E15 is <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a11687/four-things-to-know-about-e15-15096134">more corrosive</a> than E10, so some drivers worry that it will damage their engines. The Environmental Protection Agency has <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_e15.html">approved E15</a> for use in any light-duty vehicle of model year 2001 or newer, and many carmakers have approved it for use in their cars <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/apr/18/facebook-posts/e15-fuel-does-not-pose-danger-vast-majority-vehicl/">in the past decade</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, some automakers <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_e15.html">recommend against</a> using E15. It is not approved for use in motorcycles, heavy-duty vehicles such as buses and delivery trucks, boats, or equipment such as chainsaws or lawnmowers. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pqG12smBmu8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Advocates call biofuels an important asset for curbing climate change, but a 2022 study found that corn-based ethanol is significantly more carbon-intensive than regular gasoline.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why were E15 sales barred in summer?</h2>
<p>The prohibition on selling E15 in summer stemmed from the EPA’s efforts to reduce smog, which can cause <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/sites/default/files/2018-03/smog.pdf">respiratory problems</a> in people who breathe it. Ironically, E15 has very <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/ef100254w">similar smog-causing potential</a> to the E10 it would replace, but a set of arcane rules from the 1970s has banned E15 while allowing E10. </p>
<p>One source of smog is evaporating gasoline, and evaporation rates are highest in the heat of summer. To reduce summer evaporative emissions, the EPA sets seasonal limits for gasoline’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/gasoline-reid-vapor-pressure">Reid vapor pressure</a>, a measure of its evaporation potential. This is why most of the country uses different gasoline in the summer than the rest of the year.</p>
<p>The EPA requires summer gasoline to have an RVP less than 9 pounds per square inch. Regular summer gasoline without ethanol has an RVP of 9, but summer E10 and E15 both have RVPs around 10. This would seem to preclude both E10 and E15. However, in 1978, during a previous energy crisis, Congress issued an <a href="https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/ethanol-waivers-e15-and-e10">allowance specifically for E10</a> to have an RVP of 10. That’s why E10 gasoline can be sold year-round, even though its smog-forming potential is no better than E15. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1519350723347156993"}"></div></p>
<p>Some regions require even lower Reid vapor pressure, including areas with severe ozone pollution that are <a href="https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/reformulated-gasoline#42%20U.S.C.%207511(b)">required to use reformulated gasoline</a> – fuel that is specially formulated to burn more cleanly than conventional gasoline, with fewer smog-forming and toxic pollutants. The state of California has <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/gasoline-reid-vapor-pressure-requirements">its own tight standards</a>. Research shows that requiring clean gasoline <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23045655.pdf">dramatically improves air quality and health</a>.</p>
<h2>Will allowing more use of E15 measurably affect gas prices?</h2>
<p>No, it won’t. The Biden administration stated in mid-April that E15 could save drivers <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/12/fact-sheet-using-homegrown-biofuels-to-address-putins-price-hike-at-the-pump-and-lower-costs-for-american-families/">10 cents per gallon on average</a>. That’s hardly enough to compensate for the fact that ethanol contains less energy than gasoline, so cars running on E15 get <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/ethanol.shtml">1% to 2% fewer miles per gallon</a> than those burning E10. However, very little of it is likely to be sold. </p>
<p>Less than 2% of gas stations across the U.S. offer E15, and demand isn’t high for it even in the non-summer months when it’s permitted. That reflects the <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/will_the_ethanol_blend_wall_block_biofuels_growth">challenges of using more ethanol in gasoline</a>, including a lack of infrastructure and low consumer acceptance.</p>
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<p>This is not the first time we’ve had summer E15. The Trump administration allowed it to be sold during the summer in 2019-2021, but gas stations <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/file/2203/E15%20Volume%20Recap%202021%20Final.pdf">sold very little of it</a>. In 2021, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that in lifting the seasonal restriction, Trump’s EPA had <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/d-c-circuit-sides-with-oil-against-trump-ethanol-rule/">overstepped its legal authority</a>. The Biden administration believes it is on firmer legal footing because it is authorizing E15 under an emergency waiver due to a “<a href="https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/17518-epa-to-lift-e15-summer-restriction-following-biden-announcement">fuel supply emergency</a>” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<h2>Will using more ethanol help to slow climate change?</h2>
<p>In addition to promoting homegrown fuel, a major impetus for blending ethanol into gasoline was to mitigate climate change. Burning fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel sends carbon into the atmosphere, where it remains for hundreds of years and traps heat, gradually increasing the Earth’s average temperature. Ethanol <a href="https://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/basics/jtb_ethanol.pdf">burns more completely than gasoline</a>, so it offered the promise of reduced carbon emissions. </p>
<p>But the promise of climate benefits has not been realized. Producing ethanol requires growing crops, which disrupts carbon stored in the soil. U.S. farmers planted an <a href="https://agdatanews.substack.com/p/environmental-outcomes-of-the-us?r=i2qe&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web">average of 91 million acres of corn</a> in the years 2007-2021, up from 78 million in 1990-2006. Forty percent of the corn they produce now goes into ethanol. </p>
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<p>In a recently published study, my co-authors and I explored changes in cropland area due to the Renewable Fuel Standard. We found that producing additional corn for ethanol <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/119/9/e2101084119">does not reduce carbon emissions</a> once you account for changes in land use. </p>
<p>It also has serious effects on nutrient pollution in lakes and rivers, which comes from nitrogen fertilizer washing off of crop fields. Using more nitrogen fertilizer and converting more land to grow crops increases greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution. Based on the performance of corn ethanol in the U.S., we concluded that it will require profound advances in technology and policy for biofuels to deliver the environmental benefits that they were intended to produce.</p>
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<p>As I see it, merely allowing summer E15 sales will have little effect because few will buy it voluntarily. However, ethanol advocates are pushing to expand the market. </p>
<p>Iowa lawmakers have already <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2022/04/26/iowa-legislature-passes-bill-promoting-gas-ethanol-e-15-biofuel-priority-governor-kim-reynolds/7440749001/">passed legislation</a> requiring most gas stations in the state to sell E15, and Midwest governors are asking the Biden administration to allow its <a href="https://governor.iowa.gov/press-release/gov-reynolds-leads-bipartisan-multi-governor-letter-to%C2%A0epa-for%C2%A0permanent-midwest-e15">permanent sale year-round</a>. Mandating more E15 use would benefit farmers by increasing demand for their crops, but it would be a net loss for the environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Smith received funding from the National Wildlife Federation for research on the environmental outcomes of the Renewable Fuel Standard. He currently has funding from the California Air Resources Board for research on the state's low carbon fuel standard. </span></em></p>Allowing the sale of gasoline that’s 15% ethanol year-round won’t have much impact on gas prices, but recent research shows that growing corn for fuel affects the climate – for the worse.Aaron Smith, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1684592021-12-02T13:41:45Z2021-12-02T13:41:45ZThe US biofuel mandate helps farmers, but does little for energy security and harms the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435076/original/file-20211201-25-y8w0za.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C8%2C5565%2C3715&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Surplus corn piled outside a farmer's co-op storage facility in Paoli, Colorado.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/surplus-corn-harvested-in-2010-is-piled-outside-a-farmers-news-photo/107592314">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’ve pumped gas at a U.S. service station over the past decade, you’ve put biofuel in your tank. Thanks to the federal <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43325.pdf">Renewable Fuel Standard</a>, or RFS, almost all gasoline sold nationwide is required to contain 10% ethanol – a fuel made from plant sources, mainly corn. </p>
<p>With the recent rise in pump prices, biofuel lobbies are pressing to <a href="https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/biofuel-groups-push-for-strong-ethanol-mandate-citing-climate-and-gas-prices">boost that target to 15% or more</a>. At the same time, some policymakers are calling for reforms. For example, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators has introduced a bill that would <a href="https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/7/feinstein-toomey-menendez-collins-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-repeal-ethanol-mandate">eliminate the corn ethanol portion of the mandate</a>. </p>
<p>Enacted in the wake of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the RFS promised to enhance energy security, cut carbon dioxide emissions and boost income for rural America. The program has certainly raised profits for portions of the agricultural industry, but in my view it has failed to fulfill its other promises. Indeed, studies by some scientists, <a href="https://research.umich.edu/john-decicco">including me</a>, find that biofuel use has increased rather than decreased CO2 emissions to date. </p>
<p>Current law sets a target of producing and using 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022 as part of the roughly 200 billion gallons of motor fuel that U.S. motor vehicles burn each year. As of 2019, drivers were using <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/">only 20 billion gallons</a> of renewable fuels yearly – mainly corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. Usage declined in 2020 because of the pandemic, as did most energy use. Although the 2021 tally is not yet complete, the program remains far from its 36 billion-gallon goal. I believe the time is ripe to repeal the RFS, or at least greatly scale it back. </p>
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<h2>Higher profits for many farmers</h2>
<p>The RFS’s clearest success has been boosting income for corn and soybean farmers and related agricultural firms. It also has built up a sizable domestic biofuel industry. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/">Renewable Fuels Association</a>, a trade group for the biofuels industry, estimates that the RFS has <a href="https://ethanolrfa.org/media-and-news/category/news-releases/article/2019/02/ethanol-industry-makes-a-significant-contribution-to-u-s-economy-rfa-analysis-finds">generated over 300,000 jobs</a> in recent years. Two-thirds of these jobs are in the top ethanol-producing states: Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota. Given Iowa’s key role in presidential primaries, most politicians with national ambitions find it prudent to <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/05/2020-democrats-ethanol-225517/">embrace biofuels</a>. </p>
<p>The RFS displaces a modest amount of petroleum, shifting some income away from the oil industry and into agribusiness. Nevertheless, biofuels’ contribution to U.S. energy security pales compared with gains from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6">expanded domestic oil production through hydraulic fracturing</a> – which of course brings its own severe environmental damages. And using ethanol in fuel poses <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-aims-to-boost-ethanol-without-evidence-that-it-saves-money-or-helps-the-environment-96701">other risks</a>, including <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/03/gas-with-ethanol-can-make-small-engines-fail/index.htm">damage to small engines</a> and <a href="https://www.iea-amf.org/content/fuel_information/ethanol/e10/e10_compatibility">higher emissions from fuel fumes</a>. </p>
<p>For consumers, biofuel use has had a <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-19-47">varying, but overall small, effect</a> on pump prices. Renewable fuel policy has little leverage in the world oil market, where the biofuel mandate’s penny-level effects are no match for oil’s dollar-scale volatility. </p>
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<h2>Biofuels are not carbon-neutral</h2>
<p>The idea that biofuels are good for the environment rests on the assumption that they are inherently carbon neutral – meaning that the CO2 emitted when biofuels are burned is fully offset by the CO2 that feedstocks like corn and soybeans absorb as they grow. This assumption is coded into computer models used to evaluate fuels. </p>
<p>Leading up to passage of the RFS, such modeling found modest CO2 reductions for <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1121416">corn ethanol</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0604600103">soybean biodiesel</a>. It promised greater benefits from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellulosic_ethanol">cellulosic ethanol</a> – a more advanced type of biofuel that would be made from nonfood sources, such as crop residues and energy crops like willow and switchgrass. </p>
<p>But subsequent research has shown that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1178797">biofuels are not actually carbon-neutral</a>. Correcting this mistake by evaluating real-world changes in cropland carbon uptake reveals that biofuel use has <a href="http://theconversation.com/biofuels-turn-out-to-be-a-climate-mistake-heres-why-64463">increased CO2 emissions</a>. </p>
<p>One big factor is that making biofuels amplifies land-use change. As harvests are diverted from feeding humans and livestock to produce fuel, additional farmland is needed to compensate. That means <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0910275107">forests are cut down</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0399">prairies are plowed up </a> to carve out new acres for crop production, triggering very large CO2 releases. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C4748%2C3695&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Corn kernels pour into a bin." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C4748%2C3695&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432901/original/file-20211119-17-1eetdr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">About 40% of corn produced in the U.S. is used to make ethanol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/ethanol-harvest-royalty-free-image/520153118?adppopup=true">Shuli Hallak/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Expanding farmland for biofuel production is also bad for the environment in other ways. Studies show that it has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02232-5">reduced the abundance and diversity of plants and animals worldwide</a>. In the U.S., it has amplified other adverse impacts of industrial agriculture, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/industrial-corn-farming-is-ruining-our-health-and-polluting-our-watersheds-39721">nutrient runoff and water pollution</a>. </p>
<h2>The failure of cellulosic ethanol</h2>
<p>When Congress expanded the biofuel mandate in 2007, a key factor that induced legislators from states outside the Midwest to support it was the belief that a coming generation of cellulosic ethanol would produce even greater environmental, energy and economic benefits. Biofuel proponents claimed that cellulosic fuels were <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/whatever-happened-to-advanced-biofuels/">close to becoming commercially viable</a>. </p>
<p>Almost 15 years later, in spite of the mandate and billions of dollars in federal support, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/02/11/cellulosic-ethanol-falling-far-short-of-the-hype/?sh=69132fb2505f">cellulosic ethanol has flopped</a>. Total production of liquid cellulosic biofuels has recently hovered around <a href="https://www.carsclimate.com/2021/11/cellulosic-failure.html">10 million gallons per year</a> – a tiny fraction of the 16 billion gallons that the RFS calls for producing in 2022. Technical challenges have proved to be more daunting than proponents claimed. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in a field of tall grass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433778/original/file-20211124-15-1q9hjjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Making cellulosic ethanol from plants like switchgrass is complicated and remains unaffordable despite large subsidies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/switchgrass-production-in-tennessee-royalty-free-image/522082062?adppopup=true">Karen Kasmauski/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Environmentally speaking, I see the cellulosic failure as a relief. If the technology were to succeed, I believe it would likely unleash an even more aggressive global expansion of <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25012019/climate-change-agriculture-farming-consolidation-corn-soybeans-meat-crop-subsidies/">industrial agriculture</a> – large-scale farms that raise only one or two crops and rely on highly mechanized methods with intensive chemical fertilizer and pesticide use. Some such risk remains as petroleum refiners invest in <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48916">bio-based diesel production</a> and producers modify corn ethanol facilities to <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2021/10/25/cedar-rapids-archer-daniels-midland-adm-ethanol-plant-may-start-making-sustainable-aviation-jet-fuel/6174737001/">produce biojet fuel</a>. </p>
<h2>Ripple effects on lands and Indigenous people</h2>
<p>Today the vast majority of biofuels are made from crops like corn and soybeans that also are used for food and animal feed. Global markets for major commodity crops are closely coupled, so increased demand for biofuel production drives up their prices globally. </p>
<p>This price pressure <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es101946t">amplifies deforestation</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biofuels-land-grab-guatemala/">land-grabbing</a> in locations from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/brazil-deforestation/">Brazil</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179821">Thailand</a>. The Renewable Fuel Standard thus aggravates <a href="https://theconversation.com/blood-in-bio-ethanol-how-indigenous-peoples-lives-are-being-destroyed-by-global-agribusiness-in-brazil-101348">displacement of Indigenous communities</a>, <a href="https://nyti.ms/2zleOBK">destruction of peatlands</a> and similar harms along agricultural frontiers worldwide, mainly in developing countries. </p>
<p>Some researchers have found that adverse effects of biofuel production on land use, crop prices and climate are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/713026">much smaller than previously estimated</a>. Nevertheless, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120716">uncertainties surrounding land use change</a> and net effects on CO2 emissions are enormous. The complex modeling of biofuel-related commodity markets and land utilization is impossible to verify, as it extrapolates effects across the globe and into the future.</p>
<p>Rather than biofuels, a much better way to address transportation-related CO2 emissions is through improving efficiency, particularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-the-us-auto-fleet-greener-increasing-fuel-efficiency-matters-more-than-selling-electric-vehicles-153085">raising gasoline vehicle fuel economy</a> while electric cars continue to advance. </p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-important">Get The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<h2>A stool with two weak legs</h2>
<p>What can we conclude from 16 years of the RFS? As I see it, two of its three policy legs are now quite wobbly: Its energy security rationale is largely moot, and its climate rationale has proved false. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, key agricultural interests strongly support the program and may be able to prop it up indefinitely. Indeed, as some commentators have observed, the biofuel mandate has become another <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/08/22/the-ethanol-industrys-flaw-is-its-entitlement-mentality/?sh=7b7e740f1d9a">agribusiness entitlement</a>. Taxpayers probably would have to pay dearly in a deal to repeal the RFS. For the sake of the planet, it would be a cost worth paying.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D., is a Research Professor Emeritus retired from the University of Michigan. While remaining professionally active in energy and environmental research, he currently receives no funding and has no relevant relationships beyond his academic affiliation. </span></em></p>The US has required motor fuels to contain 10% biofuels since 2005. As this program nears a key milestone in 2022, farm advocates want to expand it while critics want to pare it back or repeal it.John DeCicco, Research Professor Emeritus, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664802021-09-13T17:46:59Z2021-09-13T17:46:59ZHuman rights could address the health and environmental costs of food production<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420521/original/file-20210910-26-qzmbce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C0%2C3440%2C2305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A human rights-based approach to food production will have environmental, social and economic benefits.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Industrially produced food appears to be cheap but is actually very expensive. Recent estimates of the hidden costs of today’s food systems range from <a href="https://sc-fss2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/UNFSS_true_cost_of_food.pdf">US$12 trillion to US$20 trillion annually</a>. These mind-boggling figures include food’s devastating environmental and human rights impacts and poor health caused by unhealthy diets. </p>
<p>To put these costs in perspective, they are roughly double the total economic value of the global food system.</p>
<p>Feeding eight billion people healthy, sustainable food by 2030 is a monumental challenge. Yet transforming food systems that inflict tens of trillions of dollars in health and environmental damages is essential for realizing human rights. </p>
<p>Industrial food production is a major driver of the planetary environmental emergency. Food systems are responsible for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/">21 to 37 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>, 70 per cent of <a href="https://www.unwater.org/publications/sdg-6-synthesis-report-2018-on-water-and-sanitation/">water use</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaq0216">80 per cent of the pollution</a> causing <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/eutrophication-causes-consequences-and-controls-in-aquatic-102364466/">eutrophication</a> and marine dead zones. </p>
<p>Agriculture and aquaculture are major threats for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline">85 per cent of the species identified as threatened with extinction</a>. Deforestation — mainly expanding agricultural land to produce beef, soy and palm oil — is responsible for <a href="https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2020-12/IPBES%20Workshop%20on%20Biodiversity%20and%20Pandemics%20Report_0.pdf">30 per cent of the infectious diseases</a> that spillover into humans from wildlife and livestock, raising the risk of pandemics.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial photograph of a fish farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420536/original/file-20210910-19-19r9slz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large-scale industrial fish farms can cause environmental damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Environmental problems are exacerbated by food loss and waste, as an estimated <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27539">30 per cent of all food produced is never eaten</a>.</p>
<h2>Skyrocketing impacts</h2>
<p>Driven by increasing wealth, population growth and the rising dominance of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/intensive-agriculture">input-intensive industrial agriculture</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">the negative environmental impacts of food systems are skyrocketing</a>. Since 1960, synthetic fertilizer use jumped more than 800 per cent. Meat production leapt more than 500 per cent. Unhealthy diets are estimated to be the world’s most significant risk factor for disease, contributing to more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8">10 million premature deaths annually</a>. </p>
<p>Enough food is produced annually to provide adequate nutrition for everyone, but a large portion is fed to livestock, wasted or used to manufacture non-food products such as biofuels. </p>
<p>Two billion people lack adequate access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, <a href="http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2021/en/">including 700 to 800 million suffering from daily hunger</a>. Paradoxically, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1614362">more than two billion people are overweight or obese</a>. </p>
<p>Diets in high and middle-income countries include excessive animal protein and a growing share of ultra-processed, nutrient-poor foods. Unhealthy diets contribute to obesity, diabetes and a smorgasbord of non-communicable diseases.</p>
<p>The environmental impacts and unhealthy diets associated with industrial food systems interfere with the enjoyment of a wide range of human rights, including the rights to life, health, water, food, a healthy environment, development, an adequate standard of living, cultural rights, the rights of the child and Indigenous rights.</p>
<h2>Rights and obligations</h2>
<p>To prevent negative impacts on human rights and the environment, governments should apply a rights-based approach to all food-related laws, regulations, policies and actions. A rights-based approach should focus on <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Food/Pages/FoodIndex.aspx">the right to food</a> and the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Environment/SREnvironment/Pages/SRenvironmentIndex.aspx">right to a healthy environment</a>. This approach would clarify the obligations of governments and the responsibilities of businesses; catalyze ambitious actions; prioritize progress for the poorest, most vulnerable and marginalized communities; and include people in designing and implementing solutions.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/la-S53wfG6w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The UN Food and Agriculture Organization looks at the right to food as a human right and a legal obligation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not all food systems contribute equally to environmental degradation and human rights violations. There is a vast diversity of production practices and an even wider range of diets. The use of water, pesticides, synthetic fertilizers, antibiotics and other inputs, as well as associated levels of pollution and environmental damage, varies extensively by type of food and production method. Meat and dairy generally <a href="http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/197623/icode/">use the most land and have the largest environmental impacts per calorie produced</a>. Agroecology — a holistic approach to food systems that integrates ecological principles with social equity — offers more healthy and sustainable practices.</p>
<p>Experts have called for transformative changes to food systems to achieve just, healthy and sustainable outcomes. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development stated that “the way the world grows its food will have to change radically to better serve the poor and hungry if the world is to cope with a growing population and climate change while <a href="http://www.db.zs-intern.de/uploads/1523810120-Global_Press_Release_final.pdf">avoiding social breakdown and environmental collapse</a>.” </p>
<h2>Not an option</h2>
<p>The good news is that there are proven solutions available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance carbon sinks, reduce air and water pollution, alleviate water scarcity, decrease the use of pesticides, fertilizers and antibiotics, restore soil health, safeguard biological diversity and decrease the risks of zoonotic diseases. Many solutions offer multiple benefits — for example, reducing pesticide use is good for soil, biodiversity and human health.</p>
<p>While the foregoing changes are necessary, they are not sufficient. Fulfilling the rights to food and a healthy environment also requires reducing inequalities, promoting healthy and sustainable diets, cutting food loss and waste, and transforming governance to be more participatory, preventive and precautionary.</p>
<p>Economic reforms are also imperative. Over US$600 billion in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22703-1">food-related subsidies</a> that undermine sustainability should be re-purposed to support smallholders (farms less than two hectares), agroecology and innovation, implement sustainable production practices, end over-fishing and restore damaged ecosystems.</p>
<p>Prioritizing the rights to food and a healthy environment offers a clear path towards just and sustainable food systems. It is not an option for governments; it is an obligation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166480/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R Boyd is affiliated with the UN through his appointment by the Human Rights Council as the Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment.</span></em></p>The hidden costs of industrial food production include immense health and environmental impacts. These include millions of deaths, climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss.David R Boyd, UN Special Rapporteur on human rights & environment and Associate Professor of Law, Policy and Sustainability, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1628002021-07-13T05:23:28Z2021-07-13T05:23:28ZRaze paradise to put in a biofuel crop? No, there are far better ways to tackle climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410964/original/file-20210713-19-yuvszk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2400%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all know action on climate change is urgently needed. But that doesn’t mean a forest should be razed to build a wind farm. Nor should vast fields of a single crop be grown year after year – reducing the number of other species that can live there – even if the plant is used to produce renewable bio-fuel.</p>
<p>Climate change and biodiversity loss are the <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract?casa_token=lcncNn2MgsMAAAAA:yd5BReAtG5Pj-CCDfJD_hezocS4lgcZYAGQ-_YO-YvlIc6QvS1hsKnbRI1OyRbj2ibAcVM2vp0ACXRg">two greatest challenges</a> to humanity and our planet. But they’re often dealt with by separate laws and policies, which can lead to perverse, unwanted outcomes.</p>
<p>Clearly, this siloed approach must change. This was recognised in a <a href="https://www.cbd.int/doc/c/abb5/591f/2e46096d3f0330b08ce87a45/wg2020-03-03-en.pdf">draft plan</a> by the Convention on Biological Diversity, released overnight, which stated that biodiversity should not be harmed by efforts to tackle climate change.</p>
<p>But how do we ensure solutions to one of these wicked problems does not worsen the other? Some 50 of the world’s leading researchers on biodiversity and climate have released a report which sought to answer this question. Below, I outline the conundrums we tackled and the solutions we <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/events/launch-ipbes-ipcc-co-sponsored-workshop-report-biodiversity-and-climate-change">came up with</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coral underwater below vegetation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410965/original/file-20210713-23-qpdmkc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate solutions should not lower the variety of species found on Earth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A world-first collaboration</h2>
<p>Our report, released last month, represents the first ever collaboration between the world’s largest research and policy communities on biodiversity and climate – the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (<a href="https://ipbes.net/about">IPBES</a>) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>). </p>
<p>IPBES is an independent intergovernmental body that synthesises evidence on the state of biodiversity, ecosystems and natures’ contributions to people. The IPCC is the United Nations body for assessing climate science. </p>
<p>The word “biodiversity” refers to the variety of living things: all the animals, plants and tiny micro-organisms on Earth, <a href="https://australian.museum/learn/science/biodiversity/what-is-biodiversity/">including</a> the genetic information they contain and the ecosystems they form.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/biodiversity-loss">Biodiversity loss</a>, then, is a reduction in the variety of species in an ecosystem, a geographic area or the planet as a whole. Biodiversity, including extinctions, is currently declining at rates <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/">unprecedented</a> in human history.</p>
<p>There’s a growing recognition that climate, biodiversity and human well-being are inextricably linked. </p>
<p>To date, biodiversity loss has largely been caused by human actions which harm land, rivers and oceans. However, research suggests worsening climate change will be the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/49/30882">main cause</a> of global biodiversity loss this century.</p>
<p>For example, climate change is causing <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reef-outlook-is-very-poor-we-have-one-last-chance-to-save-it-122785">marine heatwaves</a> which threaten the existence of the Great Barrier Reef. Climate change also makes <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261">bushfires</a> more intense and frequent, pushing species closer to <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-season-in-hell-bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-closer-to-extinction-129533">extinction</a>. </p>
<p>Biodiversity loss can also make climate change worse. For example, forests store large amounts of carbon, and their destruction is a <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaax2546?intcmp=trendmd-adv">key source of</a> greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/almost-60-coral-species-around-lizard-island-are-missing-and-a-great-barrier-reef-extinction-crisis-could-be-next-163714">Almost 60 coral species around Lizard Island are 'missing' – and a Great Barrier Reef extinction crisis could be next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="forest next to razed ground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410966/original/file-20210713-19-1biatbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cutting down trees reduces biodiversity and makes climate change worse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Robbing Peter to pay Paul</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/52/13294.short">Bioenergy crops</a> such as corn, canola and soybeans can be processed and used as a fuel for heat or energy. This can provide an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. And <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1701284.short">forest plantations</a> storing carbon dioxide can be an effective way to reduce atmospheric carbon levels. </p>
<p>But these climate solutions can be bad for nature. Crop or forest monocultures greatly diminish the diversity of other plant and animal species the land can support. Such practices can <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1701284.short">also</a> degrade ecosystems and damage native species. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719345930?casa_token=vi7txg0bCyYAAAAA:u9RIzziwwva17PFCFVDZ4LT1GPPUeB7C_Y6OGG0fcwD7GPX2Cxzb8GHac2B9fPwGqORkD9Valg">renewable energy</a> technologies can harm biodiversity. For example, large-scale solar plants across vast areas of land can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719345930?casa_token=vi7txg0bCyYAAAAA:u9RIzziwwva17PFCFVDZ4LT1GPPUeB7C_Y6OGG0fcwD7GPX2Cxzb8GHac2B9fPwGqORkD9Valg">destroy</a> animal habitat and disrupt wildlife movement. </p>
<p>Crucially, climate and biodiversity interventions can also be <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22645.short">harmful</a> to human well-being. Many communities in developing countries rely directly on nature for their everyday needs. Efforts to protect biodiversity by locking up natural areas in forest reserves can <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/580.full">deprive</a> local people of their lands and erode their <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f/meta">food security</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1404902501887918080"}"></div></p>
<h2>What must be done?</h2>
<p>Our report sets out key steps to protecting the climate, biodiversity and human well-being in unison. I outline these below.</p>
<p><strong>Protect and restore carbon-rich ecosystems</strong></p>
<p>This is the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01241-2">number one priority</a> for joint action on climate and biodiversity. It is critical, however, that such processes involve – and consider the needs of – <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/rec.12894">local communities</a>. They must also take <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1526-100X.2006.00136.x?casa_token=uZZxDMcSAPEAAAAA%3ACIweokHdG6vrtOi0TcxyAi-Ktz3qa0M_cczqqshZwolQNYSTuRTAOwTEz6lJGdxpRN4TT3hqeB3qlMo3">future climate conditions</a> into account.</p>
<p><strong>Slash carbon emissions</strong></p>
<p>By storing carbon in forests, wetlands and other ecosystems, nature can do a lot to tackle climate change. But it <a href="https://theconversation.com/every-year-in-australia-nature-grows-8-new-trees-for-you-but-that-alone-wont-fix-climate-change-146922">can’t do everything</a>. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/49/30882">Ambitious reductions</a> in greenhouse gas emissions are needed across multiple sectors of the global economy. Without this, it will be virtually impossible to restore and protect natural ecosystems.</p>
<p><strong>Increase sustainable agricultural and forestry practices</strong></p>
<p>Food systems contribute up to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third</a> of total human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. The agricultural sector must urgently reduce waste. And if humans, particularly those in rich countries, eat less meat this will also help address emissions and biodiversity loss. In the forestry sector, careful <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25138.">species selection and management</a> can mitigate climate while being good for biodiversity.</p>
<p><strong>Eliminate harmful subsidies</strong></p>
<p>Government <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916307042">subsidies</a> for activities that harm the environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/matt-canavan-says-australia-doesnt-subsidise-the-fossil-fuel-industry-an-expert-says-it-does-131200">such as</a> burning fossil fuels, should be removed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal plant emitting steam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/410967/original/file-20210713-19-rma8d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Subsidies that support the fossil fuel industry should be scrapped.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Delivering a revolution</h2>
<p>The above measures will not be easily achieved. And they are each contingent on revolutionary economic and societal shifts.</p>
<p>Unsustainable consumption and production are key causes of climate change and biodiversity loss. Our report calls for a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pan3.10124">shift</a> in individual and societal values away from materialism. We must also challenge the dominant worldview which equates continuous economic growth with <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800913001584?via%3Dihub">human well-being.</a></p>
<p>Justice and equity must be at the centre of our new ways of being. <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/global-assessment">Indigenous and local communities</a> should lead the stewardship of forest, lands and seas. And system-wide change should not <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2019.1595883#.YM6f5agzbD4">disproportionately impact</a> the already disadvantaged.</p>
<p>And all this will require coordinated action at local, national and global scales. This must integrate multiple knowledge systems and worldviews.</p>
<p>A bright future for people and nature is possible. But achieving win-wins across climate, biodiversity and society requires urgent, transformative and just action which addresses not only the symptoms, but the causes of our greatest problems.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/even-without-new-fossil-fuel-projects-global-warming-will-still-exceed-1-5-but-renewables-might-make-it-possible-162591">Even without new fossil fuel projects, global warming will still exceed 1.5℃. But renewables might make it possible</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Lim was a co-author of the "IPBES-IPCC Co-sponsored Workshop Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change" discussed in the article.</span></em></p>How do we ensure solutions to climate change doesn’t make biodiversity loss worse? Fifty of the world’s leading researchers on biodiversity and climate have sought to answer this question.Michelle Lim, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie Law School, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1627792021-06-18T10:41:46Z2021-06-18T10:41:46ZContrails from aeroplanes warm the planet – here’s how new low-soot fuels can help<p>While aviation accounts for <a href="https://theicct.org/publications/co2-emissions-commercial-aviation-2018">2.4% of all emissions</a> from fossil fuel use globally, two-thirds of the sector’s warming effect depends on something other than its CO₂ emissions. And one of the most significant ways aviation contributes to global warming is through the clouds aeroplanes create in the upper atmosphere. </p>
<p>But, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00174-y">in a new study</a>, researchers have shown that alternative fuels to the kerosene that aeroplanes typically burn can help.</p>
<p>At cruising altitudes where the atmosphere is cold and humid enough, contrails (short for condensation trails) form in the wake of aircraft. These are clouds made of ice crystals that are initially produced from the plane engine’s soot and water emissions – you’ll probably have seen them as white, puffy streaks in the sky on a clear day. When the atmosphere is especially cold and humid at high altitudes, these line-shaped contrails can last for many hours and spread to form vast webs of cirrus clouds, which look like white wisps of hair.</p>
<p>These clouds reflect the sun’s radiation back to space, cooling the atmosphere, but they can also trap infrared radiation reflected from the Earth. This process ultimately warms the atmosphere, as the warming effect exceeds the cooling. This is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834">calculated</a> to be aviation’s largest current warming effect – nearly double that from historic CO₂ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A blue sky with a contrail line and wispy cirrus clouds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407015/original/file-20210617-17-yc3wrn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Contrails track the flight paths of aeroplanes, but can also spread out to form cirrus clouds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/contrail-due-airliner-passing-earlier-diagonally-1532064569">Daniel Albach/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Reducing aviation’s climate impacts from contrails will depend on minimising soot particles from aeroplane exhausts. Aircraft exhaust plumes used to be smoky, as they contained a lot of soot. Modern engines are designed to reduce the heaviness of soot emissions, but the size and number of ice crystals that form depends on the large number soot of particles. There’s only so much more that can be achieved by cleaning aeroplane exhausts – future efforts must focus on the fuel itself.</p>
<p>Impurities such as napthalene, which are naturally present in aircraft fossil fuels like kerosene, are called aromatic compounds. These are carbon ring-shaped chemical structures that form the building blocks of soot particles. <a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-to-greener-aviation-fuel-has-hit-turbulence-heres-why-7274">Biofuels</a> made from crops and waste vegetable oils, and synthetic fuels made using renewable electricity, hydrogen and CO₂, are designed to reduce the carbon footprint of flying.</p>
<p>There are no aromatic impurities in these fuels, meaning <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21420">fewer soot particles</a> are generated when they’re burned. In the new study, the researchers found that they also generate fewer (but larger) ice crystals in the atmosphere during flight. This, in turn, makes the contrails and the cirrus clouds they form warm the Earth less.</p>
<h2>The future of flying</h2>
<p>Currently, aeroplanes can only fuel up with kerosene or kerosene-biofuel blends. The authors of the new paper found that blends of fuels with low aromatic impurities cut ice crystal formation by between 50 and 70%. In another paper, researchers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0046-4">predicted</a> that would equate to a reduction in the overall warming effect of contrails by approximately 20%-50%. Flights are likely to be permitted to run on pure biofuels at some point in the future, so the potential reduction in the warming caused by aviation could be even greater.</p>
<p>The new study’s findings suggest that sustainable fuel blends offer a win-win situation for lowering aviation’s CO₂ output and its production of contrail cirrus clouds. </p>
<p>Other solutions, such as electric flight, are only likely to be possible for very short routes. Even hydrogen-fuelled aircraft may only be developed to manage medium distances. Both technologies will take more than a decade to mature before they can be introduced into the global aircraft fleet. Long-haul aviation is likely to depend on liquid kerosene-type fuels for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Another option is for pilots to avoid parts of the atmosphere where contrails are more likely to form. On a flight-by-flight basis though, navigating to avoid these regions would almost certainly increase the flight’s CO₂ emissions. Weather models also <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace7120169">cannot predict</a> the areas where contrails will form with enough accuracy.</p>
<p>Of course, the financial costs of developing and distributing biofuels and synthetic fuels at sufficient scale will probably be large, and may increase the costs of flying. In all likelihood, governments will need to mandate a phase-out of fossil-based kerosene and provide large incentives for airlines to switch. But time is running short to decarbonise flying, and this is an effective option that airlines can develop straight away to reduce the industry’s overall climate impact.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Simon Lee receives funding from the UK Department for Transport and EU Horizon 2020.</span></em></p>Soot from aeroplane exhausts can linger in the atmosphere, seeding ice clouds which trap heat.David Simon Lee, Professor of atmospheric science, Aviation and Climate Research Group Leader, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625022021-06-15T04:56:51Z2021-06-15T04:56:51ZClimate explained: could biofuels replace all fossil fuels in New Zealand?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406297/original/file-20210615-132651-yvjvvq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C110%2C7326%2C4792&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aleksandar Malivuk/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to <a href="mailto:climate.change@stuff.co.nz">climate.change@stuff.co.nz</a></em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Could biofuels replace all fossil fuels in New Zealand? What are the economic and climate benefits and costs of biofuels, compared to other low-carbon solutions, such as hydrogen?</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>A quick look at the numbers suggests New Zealand would have enough land to produce biomass energy to replace the nation’s current fossil fuel use. But this doesn’t mean we have the technology or could do so economically — nor in ways driven by people’s choices.</p>
<p>The Climate Change Commission’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-aotearoa/">final advice</a> to government, tabled last week, runs the numbers on costs, benefits and alternatives but has no realistic scenario suggesting a complete switch to biofuels would be feasible. After considering submissions, the commission found biofuels and other alternatives, including green hydrogen, could replace more fossil energy than its first estimates suggested.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Chapter-8-inaia-tonu-nei.pdf">current demand</a> for fossil fuels is about 570 petajoules (PJ), which breaks down into 70PJ of coal, just under 200PJ of natural gas and just over 300PJ of liquid fuels. Forests covering about 11% of New Zealand’s land <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/import/attachments/Situation_Analysis_-_Bioenergy_Options.pdf">could produce</a> this much energy. </p>
<p>For comparison, the pastures covering about half the country <a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/2359/2014/">produce 700-900PJ of energy livestock can metabolise</a>. This drives exports of dairy, sheep and beef products.</p>
<h2>The pros and cons of biofuels</h2>
<p>Some insights spring from efforts to compare different forms of energy. Even when converted into the same units, fuels and energy are not easily interchangeable. </p>
<p>It may help to put energy into <a href="https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf">more familiar terms</a>. A dinner serving is around 1 megajoule (MJ), a billionth of a PJ. Compare that to 38MJ of energy content in one litre of diesel fuel — which converts to approximately 10kWh of electricity, worth two or three dollars on a home electricity bill. The electricity is convenient at home, but hard to take with you like a litre of fuel.</p>
<p>Liquid biofuels are convenient for transport but harder to produce. And combustion engines waste 65-75% of their energy as heat, regardless of whether they burn fossil fuel or biofuel. Also, any new biofuel production that isn’t from waste usually means we stop producing something that previously had value.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tractor harvesting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406339/original/file-20210615-21-19hh7yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biofuels can be produced from waste streams, including forestry slash, or by growing fuel crops on land currently used to grow food.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kletr/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The conversion of biomass to biofuels also loses a significant amount of energy, and the commission therefore expects biofuels to remain relatively costly. Battery electric vehicles have changed all this, because they are about 90% efficient, making the same energy go three times further than liquid petrol or diesel. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/move-over-corn-and-soybeans-the-next-biofuel-source-could-be-giant-sea-kelp-156728">Move over, corn and soybeans: The next biofuel source could be giant sea kelp</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many biofuel feedstocks have environmental impacts, from nitrous oxide emissions and soil carbon loss from <a href="https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2015.12.0436">crops</a> to methane emissions associated with tallow, which is produced as a meat byproduct in sufficient quantity to offset about 2% of liquid fossil fuel use. Forestry slash and waste are even more plentiful and should have lower impacts, aside from possibly contributing to erosion.</p>
<h2>Saving energy</h2>
<p>The most beneficial solution is energy conservation. The commission <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Chapter-8-inaia-tonu-nei.pdf">suggests</a> current policies will reduce coal and gas demand to just over 40PJ and 100PJ by 2035, respectively. But growing demand for energy in the transport sector means liquid fossil fuels are expected to increase to a plateau of 400PJ before slowly declining after 2035.</p>
<p>The commission produced a demonstration path, which <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Chapter-8-inaia-tonu-nei.pdf">reduces</a> fossil coal, gas and liquid energy use to 25PJ, 80PJ and 270PJ by 2035, respectively, greatly cutting emissions and the need for new renewable energy. </p>
<p>A good example comes from replacing the use of coal for process heat with wood, most importantly in dairy factories that dry milk.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-could-the-world-stop-using-fossil-fuels-today-138605">Climate explained: could the world stop using fossil fuels today?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After conservation, increasing the use of <a href="https://ccc-production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Inaia-tonu-nei-a-low-emissions-future-for-Aotearoa/Chapter-7-inaia-tonu-nei.pdf">renewable electricity</a> can play a big role. In addition to electric road transport, short regional flights could also be electrified. But batteries and efficient electric motors require <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es103607c">mining for lithium and energy</a> and are far from impact-free.</p>
<h2>Impacts of biofuel production</h2>
<p>If produced in quantities that exceed current waste streams, biofuels would need land that produces economically valuable <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-intelligence/situation-and-outlook-for-primary-industries/">agricultural or forest products</a>. Using land for biofuel also limits its <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6382/1328">use as a forest carbon sink</a>, although new forests planted for biofuels are a temporary carbon sink as they grow. Thus, the costs and benefits of biofuels depend very much on where and how they are produced.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="wood pellets for heating" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406351/original/file-20210615-13-mnu3dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=265&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wood pellets can replace fossil fuel to heat industrial boilers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aliaksei Charapanau/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Growing, transporting and producing biofuels would have some visible impacts, just as today’s fossil fuel production has a footprint that includes mining, drilling, refining, storage and transport. Depending on the location, new forests might change local landscapes and economies, with specific effects such as lower river flows. </p>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.scionresearch.com/science/bioenergy/nz-biofuels-roadmap">Scion estimated</a> that converting 30% of transport fuel to biofuel would require an area three times the size of Stewart Island and use 55 truckloads per hour.</p>
<p>The idea of a biofuel economy is both fascinating and uncertain because it could have dramatic effects on land use, across large areas, with potential benefits such as reduced nitrate leaching or erosion. </p>
<p>Future environmental effects are hard to predict because biofuel technologies are still developing, and the future costs of energy and emissions are uncertain. But so are the costs and benefits of many alternatives. </p>
<p>Ideas and debate continue to develop regarding the use of hydrogen as a fuel, either in transport or to augment batteries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealand-should-invest-in-smart-rail-before-green-hydrogen-to-decarbonise-transport-153075">if efficiency can be improved</a>, or for combustion where it could even be added to natural gas. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hydrogen-energy-has-seduced-a-generation-of-politicians-157983">hydrogen is only green</a> if it is produced with clean, renewable power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Troy Baisden receives research funding from the New Zealand government and is affiliated with Te Pūnaha Matatini Centre of Research Excellence in Networks and Complexity. He also owns shares in the renewable electricity sector. </span></em></p>A complete switch to biofuels is neither feasible nor desirable, but they could replace some fossil fuels in transport and heating. If biofuels are produced from waste products, that’s even better.Troy Baisden, Professor (Environmental Sciences), University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1567282021-04-01T11:22:56Z2021-04-01T11:22:56ZMove over, corn and soybeans: The next biofuel source could be giant sea kelp<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390658/original/file-20210319-13-12skp4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5455%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Giant kelp (_Macrocystis pyrifera_) is a potential energy crop.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/NgRKXR">Linking Tourism & Conservation/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>Giant kelp, the world’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/giant-kelp.htm">largest species of marine algae</a>, is an attractive source for making biofuels. In a recent study, we tested a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.110747">novel strategy for growing kelp</a> that could make it possible to produce it continuously on a large scale. The key idea is moving kelp stocks daily up to near-surface waters for sunlight and down to darker waters for nutrients. </p>
<p>Unlike today’s energy crops, such as corn and soybeans, growing kelp doesn’t require land, fresh water or fertilizer. And giant kelp can grow over a foot per day under ideal conditions.</p>
<p>Kelp typically grows in shallow zones near the coast, and thrives only where sunlight and nutrients are both plentiful. There’s the challenge: The ocean’s sunlit layer extends down <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/light_travel.html">about 665 feet (200 meters) or less below the surface</a>, but this zone often doesn’t contain enough nutrients to support kelp growth. </p>
<p>Much of the open ocean surface is nutrient-poor year-round. In coastal areas, <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/03coastal4.html#:%7E:text=Seasonal%20upwelling%20and%20downwelling%20also,in%20upwelling%20along%20the%20coast.">upwelling</a> – deep water rising to the surface, bringing nutrients – is seasonal. Deeper waters, on the other hand, are rich in nutrients but lack sunlight. </p>
<p>Our study demonstrated that kelp withstood daily changes in water pressure as we cycled it between depths of 30 feet (9 meters) and 262 feet (80 meters). Our cultivated kelp acquired enough nutrients from the deeper, dark environment to generate four times more growth than kelp that we transplanted to a native coastal kelp habitat.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IBsxRQt2tPE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“Farming” kelp in the ocean could produce abundant material for making sustainable biofuel.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Making biofuels from terrestrial crops such as corn and soybeans competes with other uses for farmland and fresh water. Using <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/03/f61/Chapter%205.pdf">plants from the ocean</a> can be more sustainable, efficient and scalable.</p>
<p>Marine biomass can be converted into different forms of energy, including ethanol, to replace the corn-derived additive that currently is <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=27&t=10">blended into gasoline in the U.S.</a> Perhaps the most appealing end-product is bio-crude – <a href="https://greenchemicalsblog.com/2018/06/27/study-bio-crude-potential-in-the-usa/">oil derived from organic materials</a>. Bio-crude is produced through a process called hydrothermal liquefaction, which <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qs0QZJ0rea0">uses temperature and pressure</a> to convert materials like algae into oils.</p>
<p>These oils can be processed in existing refineries into bio-based fuels for trucks and planes. It’s not practical yet to run these long-distance transportation modes on electricity because they would <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-arent-there-electric-airplanes-yet-103955">require enormous batteries</a>. </p>
<p>By our calculations, producing enough kelp to power the entire U.S. transportation sector would require using just a small fraction of <a href="https://www.gc.noaa.gov/documents/2011/012711_gcil_maritime_eez_map.pdf">the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone</a> – the ocean area out to 200 nautical miles from the coastline. </p>
<h2>How we do our work</h2>
<p>Our work is a collaboration between the <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/wrigley">USC Wrigley Institute</a> and <a href="https://www.marinebiomass.com/">Marine BioEnergy Inc.</a>, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s ARPA-E <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/technologies/programs/mariner">MARINER (Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources)</a> program. The research team includes biologists, oceanographers and engineers, working with scuba divers, vessel operators, research technicians and students.</p>
<p>We tested kelp’s biological response to depth cycling by attaching it to an open ocean structure we call the “kelp elevator,” designed by the team’s engineers. The elevator is anchored near the USC Wrigley Marine Science Center on California’s Catalina Island. A solar-powered winch raises and lowers it daily to cycle the kelp between deep and shallow water.</p>
<p>We depth-cycled 35 juvenile kelp plants for three months and planted a second set at a nearby healthy kelp bed for comparison. To our knowledge, this was the first attempt to study the biological effects of physical depth cycling on kelp. Prior studies focused on artificially <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/sites/default/files/Techno-Economic%20Feasibility%20Analysis%20of%20Offshore%20Seaweed%20Farming%20for%20Bioenergy%20and%20Biobased%20Products-2008.pdf">pumping deep nutrient-rich water to the surface</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scuba diver next to structure in open ocean water with kelp attached to it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389654/original/file-20210315-15-v092p8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A diver at the ‘kelp elevator.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maurice Roper</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Our results suggest that depth cycling is a biologically viable cultivation strategy. Now we want to analyze factors that can increase yields, including timing, water depth and kelp genetics.</p>
<p>Many unknowns need further study, including processes for permitting and regulating kelp farms, and the possibility that raising kelp on a large scale could have unintended ecological consequences. But we believe marine biomass energy has great potential to help meet 21st-century sustainability challenges.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diane Kim owns shares in Holdfast Aquaculture LLC, which works on aquaculture for food, primarily focusing on mussels and oysters in Southern California. The company does not work on bioenergy.
Research described in this article was funded in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Energy. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ignacio Navarrete receives funding from the U.S. Department of Energy for work described in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Dutton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Making biofuels from crops grown on land poses trade-offs between food and fuel. A new study looks offshore.Diane Kim, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies and Senior Scientist, USC Wrigley Institute, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesIgnacio Navarrete, Postdoctoral Scholar and Research Associate, USC Wrigley Institute for Environmental Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesJessica Dutton, Associate Director for Research, Wrigley Institute for Environmental Studies / Adjunct Assistant Professor (Research), Environmental Studies Program, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1402462020-06-09T19:54:05Z2020-06-09T19:54:05ZClimate explained: does your driving speed make any difference to your car’s emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340440/original/file-20200608-176538-15lwe35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C149%2C4695%2C3009&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SP Photo/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Does reducing speed reduce emissions from the average car?</strong> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Every car has an optimal speed range that results in minimum fuel consumption, but this range differs between vehicle types, design and age.</p>
<p>Typically it looks like this graph below: fuel consumption rises from about 80km/h, partly because air resistance increases.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>But speed is only one factor. No matter what car you are driving, you can reduce fuel consumption (and therefore emissions) by driving more smoothly. </p>
<p>This includes anticipating corners and avoiding sudden braking, taking the foot off the accelerator just before reaching the peak of a hill and cruising over it, and removing roof racks or bull bars and heavier items from inside when they are not needed to make the car lighter and more streamlined. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">Climate explained: the environmental footprint of electric versus fossil cars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Driving wisely</h2>
<p>In New Zealand, <a href="https://www.aa.co.nz/about/newsroom/media-releases/events/aa-energywise-rally-starts-with-a-rush/">EnergyWise rallies</a> used to be run over a 1200km course around the North Island. They were designed to demonstrate how much fuel could be saved through good driving habits. </p>
<p>The competing drivers had to reach each destination within a certain time period. Cruising too slowly at 60-70km/h on straight roads in a 100km/h zone just to save fuel was not an option (also because driving too slowly on open roads can contribute to accidents). </p>
<p>The optimum average speed (for both professional and average drivers) was typically around 80km/h. The key to saving fuel was driving smoothly. </p>
<p>In the first rally in 2002, the Massey University entry was a brand new diesel-fuelled Volkswagen Golf (kindly loaned by VW NZ), running on 100% biodiesel made from waste animal fat (as Z Energy has been <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/05/02/106691/biofuels-z-energys-tortuous-carbon-solution">producing</a>). </p>
<p>A car running on fossil diesel emits about 2.7kg of carbon dioxide per litre and a petrol car produces 2.3kg per litre. Using biofuels to displace diesel or petrol can reduce emissions by up to 90% per kilometre if the biofuel is made from animal fat from a meat works. The amount varies depending on the source of the biofuel (sugarcane, wheat, oilseed rape). And of course it would be unacceptable if biofuel crops were replacing food crops or forests.</p>
<p>Regardless of the car, drivers can reduce fuel consumption by 15-20% by improving driving habits alone – reducing emissions and saving money at the same time. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-what-each-of-us-can-do-to-reduce-our-carbon-footprint-123851">Climate explained: what each of us can do to reduce our carbon footprint</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fuel efficiency</h2>
<p>When you are thinking of replacing your car, taking into account fuel efficiency is another important way to save on fuel costs and reduce emissions.</p>
<p>Many countries, including the US, Japan, China and nations within the European Union, have had fuel efficiency standards for more than a decade. This has driven car manufacturers to design ever <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/Light%20Vehicle%20Report/CCA_TransportReport_Appendices.WEB.pdf">more fuel-efficient vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>Most light-duty vehicles sold globally are subject to these standards. But Australia and New Zealand have both dragged the chain in this regard, partly because most vehicles are imported. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">Australians could have saved over $1 billion in fuel if car emissions standards were introduced 3 years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand also remains hesitant about introducing a “<a href="https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/government-announces-consultation-light-vehicle-fleet-feebate">feebate</a>” scheme, which proposes a fee on imported high-emission cars to make imported hybrids, electric cars and other efficient vehicles cheaper with a subsidy.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, driving an <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-switching-to-electric-transport-makes-sense-even-if-electricity-is-not-fully-renewable-136502">electric car results in low emissions</a> because electricity generation is 85% renewable. In Australia, which still relies on coal-fired power, electric cars are responsible for higher emissions unless they are recharged through a local renewable electricity supply.</p>
<p>Fuel and electricity prices will inevitably rise. But whether we drive a petrol or electric car, we can all shield ourselves from some of those future price rises by driving more efficiently and less speedily. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-switching-to-electric-transport-makes-sense-even-if-electricity-is-not-fully-renewable-136502">Climate explained: why switching to electric transport makes sense even if electricity is not fully renewable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Sims does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You can reduce your fuel consumption by 15-20% with improved driving habits alone – reducing emissions and saving money at the same time.Ralph Sims, Professor, School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1278002020-02-16T18:57:03Z2020-02-16T18:57:03ZMajor airlines say they’re acting on climate change. Our research reveals how little they’ve achieved<p>If you’re a traveller who cares about reducing your carbon footprint, are some airlines better to fly with than others?</p>
<p>Several of the world’s major airlines have announced plans to become “carbon neutral”, while others are trialling new aviation fuels. But are any of their climate initiatives making much difference?</p>
<p>Those were the questions we set out to answer a year ago, by analysing what the world’s largest 58 airlines – which fly 70% of the total <a href="https://airlinegeeks.com/2015/12/28/airline-metrics-available-seat-kilometers/">available seat-kilometres</a> – are doing to live up to their promises to cut their climate impact.</p>
<p>The good news? Some airlines are taking positive steps. The bad news? When you compare what’s being done against the continued growth in emissions, even the best airlines are not doing anywhere near enough.</p>
<h2>More efficient flights still drive up emissions</h2>
<p><a href="https://amadeus.com/en/insights/white-paper/airline-initiatives-to-reduce-climate-impact">Our research</a> found three-quarters of the world’s biggest airlines showed improvements in carbon efficiency – measured as carbon dioxide per available seat. But that’s not the same as cutting emissions <em>overall</em>.</p>
<p>One good example was the Spanish flag carrier Iberia, which reduced emissions per seat by about 6% in 2017, but increased absolute emissions by 7%.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="sCXkV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sCXkV/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>For 2018, compared with 2017, the collective impact of all the climate measures being undertaken by the 58 biggest airlines amounted to an improvement of 1%. This falls short of the industry’s goal of achieving a <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/policy/environment/climate-change/">1.5% increase</a> in efficiency. And the improvements were more than wiped out by the industry’s overall 5.2% annual increase in emissions. </p>
<p>This challenge is even clearer when you look slightly further back. <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---industry-statistics/">Industry figures</a> show global airlines produced 733 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2014. Falling fares and more people around wanting to fly saw airline emissions rise 23% in just five years. </p>
<h2>What are the airlines doing?</h2>
<p>Airlines reported climate initiatives across 22 areas, with the most common involving fleet renewal, engine efficiency, weight reductions and flight path optimisation. Examples in <a href="https://amadeus.com/en/insights/white-paper/airline-initiatives-to-reduce-climate-impact">our paper</a> include:</p>
<ul>
<li>Singapore Airlines modified the Trent 900 engines on their A380 aircraft, saving 26,326 tonnes of CO₂ (equivalent to 0.24% of the airline’s annual emissions);</li>
<li>KLM’s efforts to reduce weight on board led to a CO₂ reduction of 13,500 tonnes (0.05% of KLM’s emissions).</li>
<li>Etihad reports savings of 17,000 tonnes of CO₂ due to flight plan improvements (0.16% of its emissions). </li>
</ul>
<hr>
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<hr>
<p>Nineteen of the 58 large airlines I examined invest in alternative fuels. But the scale of their research and development programs, and use of alternative fuels, remains tiny.</p>
<p>As an example, for Earth Day 2018 <a href="https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2018-04-19-Air-Canada-to-Save-160-Tonnes-of-Carbon-on-Earth-Day-through-Innovative-Biojet-Fuel-Project-at-Toronto-Pearson-Airport">Air Canada announced</a> a 160-tonne emissions saving from blending 230,000 litres of “biojet” fuel into 22 domestic flights. How much fuel was that? Not even enough to fill the more than 300,000-litre capacity of just one A380 plane.</p>
<h2>Carbon neutral promises</h2>
<p>Some airlines, including Qantas, are aiming to be <a href="https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-to-slash-carbon-emissions/">carbon neutral by 2050</a>. While that won’t be easy, Qantas is at least starting with better climate reporting; it’s one of only <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/tcfd-supporters/">eight airlines</a> addressing its carbon risk through the systematic <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures</a> process. </p>
<p>About half of the major airlines engage in carbon offsetting, but only 13 provide information on measurable impacts. Theses include Air New Zealand, with its FlyNeutral program to help restore native forest in New Zealand. </p>
<p>That lack of detail means the integrity of many offset schemes is questionable. And even if properly managed, offsets <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">still avoid</a> the fact that we can’t make <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0969699716302538">deep carbon cuts</a> if we keep flying at current rates.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-shame-wont-fix-airline-emissions-we-need-a-smarter-solution-127257">Flight shame won't fix airline emissions. We need a smarter solution</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What airlines and governments need to do</h2>
<p>Our research shows major airlines’ climate efforts are achieving nowhere near enough. To decrease aviation emissions, three major changes are urgently needed. </p>
<ol>
<li><p>All airlines need to implement all measures across the 22 categories covered in <a href="https://amadeus.com/en/insights/white-paper/airline-initiatives-to-reduce-climate-impact">our report</a> to reap any possible gain in efficiency.</p></li>
<li><p>Far more research is needed to develop alternative aviation fuels that genuinely cut emissions. Given what we’ve seen so far, these are unlikely to be biofuels. E-fuels – liquid fuels derived from carbon dioxide and hydrogen – may provide such a solution, but there are challenges ahead, including high costs.</p></li>
<li><p>Governments can – and some European countries do – impose carbon taxes and then invest into lower carbon alternatives. They can also provide incentives to develop new fuels and alternative infrastructure, such as rail or electric planes for shorter trips. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>How you can make a difference</h2>
<p>Our research paper was released late last year, at a World Travel and Tourism Council event linked to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/cop25-79570">Madrid climate summit</a>. Activist Greta Thunberg famously sailed around the world to be there, rather than flying.</p>
<p>Higher-income travellers from around the world have had a disproportionately large impact in driving up aviation emissions. </p>
<hr>
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<hr>
<p>This means that all of us who are privileged enough to fly, for work or pleasure, have a role to play too, by:</p>
<ol>
<li>reducing our flying (<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-hate-flight-shame-but-not-enough-to-quit-flying-130614">completely</a>, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/flight-shame-flying-less-plays-a-small-but-positive-part-in-tackling-climate-change-125440">flying less</a>)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.offsetguide.org/avoiding-low-quality-offsets/">carbon offsetting</a></li>
<li>for essential trips, only flying with airlines doing more to cut emissions.</li>
</ol>
<p>To really make an impact, far more of us need to do all three.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-much-does-flying-contribute-to-climate-change-127707">Climate explained: how much does flying contribute to climate change?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susanne Becken is on the Sustainability Advisory Panel of Air New Zealand. Her report, Airline initiatives to reduce climate impact, was co-written with Paresh Pant. This research paper was done in partnership with travel technology company Amadeus.</span></em></p>We analysed what the world’s top 58 airlines – such as American Airlines, British Airways and Qantas – are doing about climate change. Even the best airlines are not doing anywhere near enough.Susanne Becken, Professor of Sustainable Tourism and Director, Griffith Institute for Tourism, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1246722019-10-08T12:48:48Z2019-10-08T12:48:48ZElectric cars are here – but we’ll still need fuel for a long time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295986/original/file-20191008-128686-1uh5btb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many vehicles can't just be powered by battery.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vehicles-on-road-traffic-jam-front-709597006?src=pl3HZF0ZYcqI2xPfFZE2tA-1-50">MuchMania/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electric cars are often seen as one of the great hopes for tackling climate change. With <a href="https://www.driving.co.uk/news/new-cars/2019-mg-zs-ev-price-sale-date-electric-range-details/">new models</a> arriving in showrooms, major carmakers <a href="https://thenewswheel.com/gm-abandons-hybrids/">retooling for an electric future</a>, and a small but growing number of consumers eager to convert from gas guzzlers, EVs appear to offer a way for us to decarbonise with little change to our way of life.</p>
<p>Yet there is a danger that fixating on electric cars leaves a large blind spot. Electrification would be very expensive for the lumbering lorries that haul goods across continents or is currently technically prohibitive for long-distance air travel.</p>
<p>Beyond all the enthusiasm surrounding electrification, currently light-duty passenger vehicles only comprise <a href="https://www.iea.org/etp/explore/">50% of total global demand</a> for energy in the transportation sector compared to 28% for heavy road vehicles, 10% for air, 9% for sea and 2% for rail. </p>
<p>Put simply, the current focus on electrifying passenger vehicles – though welcome – represents only part of the answer. For most other segments, fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future. And even for cars, electric vehicles are not a cure-all.</p>
<p>The unfortunate truth is that, on their own, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) cannot solve what we call the “100 EJ problem”. Demand for transport services are expected to rise dramatically in the coming decades. So the <a href="https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/1058?fileName=Energy_Technology_Perspectives_2017.pdf">International Energy Agency (IEA) projects</a> that we need to significantly reduce the amount of energy each vehicle uses just to keep total global energy demand in the transport sector roughly flat at current levels of 100 exajoules (EJ) by 2050. More than half of that 100 EJ is still expected to come from petroleum products and, by then, the share of light-duty vehicles in transport sector energy demand is expected to decline from 50% to 34%.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295991/original/file-20191008-128655-8tygi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Electric cars don’t suit every journey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-car-charging-on-parking-station-523890190?src=A2v9viZiGi5L3rVX1zxAMg-1-7">Nick Starichenko/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/15/electric-cars-internal-combustion-engines-mit-report">vast majority of existing passenger trips</a> can be accommodated by existing battery electric vehicles so, for many consumers, buying one will be an easy decision (as costs come down). But for those who frequently take very long journeys, the focus also needs to be on lower-carbon fuels.</p>
<p>Petroleum substitutes could extend sustainable transport to heavier vehicles and those seeking longer range, while using the existing refuelling infrastructure and vehicle fleet. Whereas battery electric vehicles will impose wider system costs (for example, the charging infrastructure needed to connect millions of new electric vehicles to the grid), all the transition costs of sustainable fuel substitutes are in the fuels themselves.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdfExtended/S2542-4351(19)30416-7%20comparing%20sustainable%20synthetic%20fuels%20and%20BEVs">Our recent study</a> is part of a <a href="https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/synthetic-fuels/synthetic-fuels-briefing.pdf">renewed focus</a> on synthetic fuels or synfuels (fuels converted from feedstocks other than petroleum). Synfuels were first made on an industrial scale in the 1920s by turning coal into liquid hydrocarbons using the so called <a href="https://www.netl.doe.gov/research/coal/energy-systems/gasification/gasifipedia/ftsynthesis">Fischer-Tropsch synthesis</a>, named after its original German inventors. But using coal as a feedstock produces far dirtier fuel than even conventional petroleum-based fuels.</p>
<p>One possible route to carbon-neutral synthetic fuels would be to use woody residues and wastes as feedstock to <a href="http://www.etipbioenergy.eu/advanced-biofuels-overview">create synthetic biofuels</a> with less impact on the environment and food production than <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-biofuels-alone-are-unsustainable-but-can-still-help-combat-climate-change-25046">crop-based biofuels</a>. Another option would be to produce synfuels from CO₂ and water <a href="https://www.bosch-presse.de/pressportal/de/en/bosch-renewable-synthetic-fuels-for-less-co%E2%82%82-200070.html">using low-carbon electricity</a>. But producing such “electrofuels” would need either a power system that is very low cost and ultra-low-carbon (such as those of Iceland or Quebec) or require dedicated sources of zero-carbon electricity that have high availability throughout the year.</p>
<h2>Pilot plants</h2>
<p>Synthetic biofuels and electrofuels both have the potential to deliver sustainable fuels at scale, but these efforts are still at the demonstration stage. Audi opened a €20M e-gas (electrofuel) plant <a href="https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/mobility-for-the-future/audi-future-lab-mobility_en/audi-future-energies_en/audi-e-gas_en">in 2013</a> that produces 3.2 MW of synthetic methane from 6 MW of electricity. The €150M <a href="https://www.chalmers.se/SiteCollectionDocuments/SEE/News/Popularreport_GoBiGas_results_highres.pdf">Swedish GoBiGas plant</a> was commissioned in 2014 and produced synthetic biomethane at a scale of 20 MW using 30 MW of biomass.</p>
<p>Despite the many virtues of carbon-neutral synthetic fuels though, most commercial-scale projects are currently on hold. This is due to the high investment cost of pioneer process plants combined with a lack of sufficiently strong government policies to make then economically viable and share the risk of scale-up.</p>
<p>Government and industry attempts to encourage people to buy electric vehicles aren’t a problem in themselves. Our concern is that an exclusive focus on electrification may make solving the 100 EJ problem impossible. It is too early to tell which, if any, sustainable fuels will emerge successful and so the most pressing need is to scale up production from the current demonstration stage. If not, when our attention finally turns away from glossy electric car advertisements in a few years, we will find ourselves at a standing start in addressing the rest of the problem.</p>
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1124672">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Reiner is Assistant Director of the Energy Policy Research Group at the University of Cambridge, which is supported by grants from UK and European research councils and by sponsors of our Energy Policy Forum from government and industry.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilkka Hannula is Principal Investigator at the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, which receives funding from government, industry and European research councils. He is also Task Leader at IEA Bioenergy.</span></em></p>We can’t decarbonise the whole transport sector with just batteries - sustainable fuels are essential.David Reiner, University Senior Lecturer in Technology Policy, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolIlkka Hannula, Associate Researcher, Energy Policy Research Group, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1180172019-06-12T10:05:11Z2019-06-12T10:05:11ZThe Defense Department is worried about climate change – and also a huge carbon emitter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278736/original/file-20190610-52758-t5kq63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Hornet launching from the USS Theodore Roosevelt on full afterburner.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afterburner#/media/File:FA18_on_afterburner.jpg">U.S. Navy/Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scientists and security analysts have warned for more than a decade that global warming is a <a href="https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/pdf/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf">potential national security concern</a>. </p>
<p>They project that the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">consequences of global warming</a> – rising seas, powerful storms, famine and diminished access to fresh water – may make regions of the world politically unstable and prompt <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-displace-millions-in-coming-decades-nations-should-prepare-now-to-help-them-89274">mass migration and refugee crises</a>. </p>
<p>Some worry that <a href="https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf">wars may follow</a>.</p>
<p>Yet with <a href="http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/articles/entry/the_pentagons_hidden_impact_on_climate_change/">few exceptions</a>, the U.S. military’s significant contribution to climate change has received little attention. Although the Defense Department has significantly reduced its fossil fuel consumption since the early 2000s, it remains the world’s <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportation-solutions/us-military-oil-use.html">single largest consumer of oil</a> – and as a result, one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters.</p>
<h2>A broad carbon footprint</h2>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GHR_WW8AAAAJ&hl=en">studied war and peace</a> for four decades. But I only focused on the scale of U.S. military greenhouse gas emissions when I began co-teaching a course on climate change and focused on the Pentagon’s response to global warming. Yet, the Department of Defense is the U.S. government’s largest fossil fuel consumer, accounting for between 77% and 80% of all <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/dataunits.php">federal government energy consumption</a> since 2001.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use,%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Final.pdf">newly released study</a> published by Brown University’s <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/">Costs of War Project</a>, I calculated U.S. military greenhouse gas emissions in tons of carbon dioxide equivalent from 1975 through 2017.</p>
<p>Today China is the <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=booklet2018&dst=CO2emi&sort=des9">world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter</a>, followed by the United States. In 2017 the Pentagon’s greenhouse gas emissions totaled <a href="https://ctsedwweb.ee.doe.gov/Annual/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fAnnual%2fReport%2fSiteDeliveredEnergyUseAndCostBySectorAndTypeAndFiscalYear.aspx">over 59 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent</a>. If it were a country, it would have been the world’s 55th largest greenhouse gas emitter, with emissions larger than Portugal, Sweden or Denmark. </p>
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<p>The largest sources of military greenhouse gas emissions are buildings and fuel. The Defense Department maintains over 560,000 buildings at approximately 500 domestic and overseas military installations, which account for about 40% of its greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>The rest comes from operations. In fiscal year 2016, for instance, the Defense Department consumed about <a href="https://www.acq.osd.mil/eie/Downloads/OE/FY16%20OE%20Annual%20Report.pdf">86 million barrels</a> of fuel for operational purposes. </p>
<h2>Why do the armed forces use so much fuel?</h2>
<p>Military weapons and equipment use so much fuel that the relevant measure for defense planners is frequently gallons per mile.</p>
<p>Aircraft are particularly thirsty. For example, the B-2 stealth bomber, which holds more than 25,600 gallons of jet fuel, burns 4.28 gallons per mile and emits more than 250 metric tons of greenhouse gas over a 6,000 nautical mile range. The KC-135R aerial refueling tanker consumes about 4.9 gallons per mile. </p>
<p>A single mission consumes enormous quantities of fuel. In January 2017, two B-2B bombers and 15 aerial refueling tankers traveled more than 12,000 miles from Whiteman Air Force Base to <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/01/20/all-we-know-about-the-u-s-b-2-bombers-30-hour-round-trip-mission-to-pound-daesh-in-libya/">bomb ISIS targets in Libya</a>, killing <a href="https://fox4kc.com/2017/01/19/stealth-bombers-take-off-from-whiteman-a-f-b-kill-80-isis-militants/">about 80 suspected ISIS militants</a>. Not counting the tankers’ emissions, the B-2s emitted about 1,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases.</p>
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<h2>Quantifying military emissions</h2>
<p>Calculating the Defense Department’s greenhouse gas emissions isn’t easy. The Defense Logistics Agency <a href="https://www.dla.mil/Portals/104/Documents/Energy/Publications/E_Fiscal2017FactBookLowRes2.pdf?ver=2018-03-29-073051-897">tracks fuel purchases</a>, but the Pentagon <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/679682.pdf">does not consistently report</a> DOD fossil fuel consumption to Congress in its annual budget requests. </p>
<p>The Department of Energy publishes data on DOD energy production and fuel consumption, including for <a href="https://ctsedwweb.ee.doe.gov/Annual/Report/HistoricalFederalEnergyConsumptionDataByAgencyAndEnergyTypeFY1975ToPresent.aspx">vehicles and equipment</a>. Using fuel consumption data, I estimate that from 2001 through 2017, the DOD, including all service branches, emitted 1.2 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases. That is the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator">rough equivalent</a> of driving of 255 million passenger vehicles over a year.</p>
<p>Of that total, I estimated that war-related emissions between 2001 and 2017, including “overseas contingency operations” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Syria, generated over 400 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent — roughly <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator">equivalent</a> to the greenhouse emissions of almost 85 million cars in one year.</p>
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<h2>Real and present dangers?</h2>
<p>The Pentagon’s core mission is to prepare for potential attacks by human adversaries. Analysts argue about the likelihood of war and the level of military preparation necessary to prevent it, but in my view, none of the United States’ adversaries – Russia, Iran, China and North Korea – are certain to attack the United States. </p>
<p>Nor is a large standing military the only way to reduce the threats these adversaries pose. Arms control and <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/04/140674.htm">diplomacy</a> can often de-escalate tensions and reduce threats. Economic <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781403915917_2">sanctions</a> can diminish the capacity of states and nonstate actors to threaten the security interests of the U.S. and its allies. </p>
<p>In contrast, climate change is not a potential risk. It has begun, with real <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/">consequences</a> to the United States. Failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will make the nightmare scenarios strategists warn against – perhaps even “climate wars” – more likely.</p>
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<h2>A case for decarbonizing the military</h2>
<p>Over the past last decade the Defense Department has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/science/earth/05fossil.html">reduced its fossil fuel consumption</a> through actions that include using renewable energy, weatherizing buildings and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-green-energy-insight/u-s-military-marches-forward-on-green-energy-despite-trump-idUSKBN1683BL">reducing aircraft idling time on runways</a>. </p>
<p>The DOD’s total annual emissions declined from a peak of 85 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2004 to 59 million metric tons in 2017. The goal, as then-General James Mattis put it, is to be <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/defense-industrialist/unleash-us-from-the-tether-of-fuel">“unleashed from the tether of fuel”</a> by decreasing military dependence on oil and oil convoys that are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2009/11/12/fuel-military-afghanistan-iraq-business-energy-military.html#788c31ec4562">vulnerable to attack</a> in war zones. </p>
<p>Since 1979, the United States has placed a high priority on protecting access to the Persian Gulf. About <a href="https://www.acq.osd.mil/eie/Downloads/OE/2016%20OE%20Strategy_WEBd.pdf">one-fourth of military operational fuel use</a> is for the U.S. Central Command, which covers the Persian Gulf region.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/crude-strategy">national security scholars have argued</a>, with dramatic <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-01-renewables-world.html">growth in renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-exporter-opec-20181206-story.html">diminishing U.S. dependence on foreign oil</a>, it is possible for Congress and the president to rethink our nation’s military missions and reduce the amount of energy the armed forces use to protect access to Middle East oil. </p>
<p>I agree with the military and national security experts who contend that <a href="https://climateandsecurity.org/">climate change should be front and center</a> in U.S. national security debates. Cutting Pentagon greenhouse gas emissions will help <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373">save lives in the United States</a>, and could diminish the risk of climate conflict.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neta C. Crawford is Co-Director of the Costs of War Project, based at the Watson Institute at Brown University, and a Board Member of the Council for a Livable World. </span></em></p>Many current and former US military leaders call climate change a serious national security threat, but few of them mention the Defense Department’s big carbon footprint.Neta C. Crawford, Professor of Political Science and Department Chair, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1182082019-06-05T14:22:57Z2019-06-05T14:22:57Z‘Plant blindness’ is obscuring the extinction crisis for non-animal species<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278142/original/file-20190605-40715-15e7ab6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/small-daisy-flower-bellis-perennis-growing-1222724668?src=SNV7VRAjdIawiSAlPkRmFw-1-17">Photo Art Lucas/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Up to a million species may go extinct due to human activity <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports">according to a recent report</a>, some within decades. We all know the mammals in trouble – polar bears, giant pandas and snow leopards – but how many of us could name an endangered plant? A 2019 report assessed 28,000 plant species and concluded that <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/summary-statistics">about half of them were threatened with extinction</a>.</p>
<p>This failure to notice and appreciate plants has been termed “<a href="https://theconversation.com/plant-blindness-is-a-real-thing-why-its-a-real-problem-too-103026">plant blindness</a>”, and it’s particularly worrying because there are significantly <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/summary-statistics">more plant species at risk than mammals</a>, despite the latter hogging most of our attention.</p>
<p>Luckily, we developed a one minute cure for plant blindness that’s free and easy to do. Simply stop what you’re doing and look around. Are you in a room with wood or fibreboard floorboards or furniture? Do you see wallpaper, books or tissues? These are all made from plants. Your clothes may be made from plant fibres, such as cotton and linen. Perhaps you have food, fruit juice or a glass of wine nearby. Even if you’re in an office with plastic furniture, carpet tiles and wearing a polyester suit, these were made from oil generated over millions of years from plant and animal remains. Our lives are utterly dependent on plants, so why don’t we see them? </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278143/original/file-20190605-40754-1dedxsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Besides the potted plant, there are at least three other materials sourced from plants in this photograph.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/workplace-notebook-laptop-comfortable-work-table-561817636?src=A0_sAw_4u-NzzKKHHi70Sw-1-15">Undrey/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Lost connections</h2>
<p>Our lack of appreciation for plants is a fairly recent thing. Our history tells a very different story. <a href="https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/development-of-agriculture/">The dawn of farming around 12,000 years ago</a> was when people became obsessed with growing plants for food, changing the way we live and our planet forever. Starting with domesticating cereals such as barley, rice and wheat, humanity’s increasing population and sedentary communities depended on their ability to farm, leading to entire civilisations focused on agriculture.</p>
<p>Industrialisation and the more recent “<a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/green-revolution-18302">green revolution</a>” in agriculture led to incredible increases in cereal production and farming efficiency, allowing more people to live in cities rather than work on farms. Our agricultural success is a major reason why, for the first time in our history, <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Download/">most humans no longer farm</a>, leaving people free to ignore our complete dependence on plants. </p>
<p>Tragically, our talent for farming has come at a huge cost to biodiversity. Right now, half of the habitable land on earth is <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture#breakdown-of-global-land-area-today">used for agriculture</a>, a major reason behind our current extinction crisis.</p>
<p>Should we care about losing the diversity of plant species, as long as we are producing enough food? Absolutely. Plants are the major food producers in most ecosystems, providing nourishment and shelter to microbes, fungi, insects and animal species which themselves <a href="http://www.fao.org/ecosystem-services-biodiversity/background/regulating-services/en/">play key roles in ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>While some creatures eat one type of plant – such as the bamboo-dependent giant panda – micro-organisms which live in the soil and make land fertile by recycling plant nutrients, perform better <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0031405616300178">the more different plant species there are growing</a>. Plant diversity also improves how much carbon is pulled from the atmosphere and stored in the soil – <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/16/4027">vital for mitigating climate change</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/biodiversity-collapse-the-wild-relatives-of-livestock-and-crops-are-disappearing-116759">Biodiversity collapse: the wild relatives of livestock and crops are disappearing</a>
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<p>The crops that feed us may increasingly depend on the survival of other plant species. Crops are vulnerable to disease and climate change, but wild and ancient species are often resistant to diseases and can grow on poor soils and in difficult environments. These plants will have genes that could make crops disease-resistant and allow them to grow in harsher conditions with less fertiliser and pesticide. We need this invaluable genetic heritage so that more people can continue to eat well in the future.</p>
<p>Our health is also intimately connected with plant diversity. Just under half of all prescription medicines <a href="https://www-tc.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/julian/media/lrk-disp-plantmedicines.pdf">come directly from plants or by remaking plant chemicals</a>. We’ve screened only a fraction of species for potential medicines – we don’t know how many useful plant chemicals and genes remain to be discovered. Even the most overlooked plants can be enormously important. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/278144/original/file-20190605-40723-1sqff8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"><em>Arabidopsis thaliana</em> (or rockcress) is one of the most well-studied plants in the world – but would most people recognise it?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabidopsis#/media/File:Arabidopsis_thaliana_sl12.jpg">Stefan Lefnaer/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You might be surprised to learn that the species most studied to understand how plants work is a genus of tiny weeds called <em>Arabidopsis</em>. Most people have never heard of them and couldn’t identify them, even though they regularly pull them from their garden. By studying <em>Arabidopsis</em>, scientists learned how plants know when to flower, which is being used to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/7/4/111/htm">improve our understanding of flowering in vegetable crops</a> – key to improving their yield. They also learned <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/bio/pubs/reports/arabid/chap1.htm">how <em>Arabidopsis</em> defends itself from pathogens</a>, which could be used to make crops resistant to disease.</p>
<p>We can cultivate an appreciation of plants and their importance by improving access to parks, botanic gardens and forests, as well as including plant biology throughout the science curriculum in schools. But we also need to ensure there is a future for the thousands of species threatened with extinction. We need to produce more food on less land, so that natural habitats can thrive. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-conservation-scientists-heres-why-we-havent-lost-hope-for-the-future-110155">We're conservation scientists – here's why we haven't lost hope for the future</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>Plants could contribute even more to society’s needs in the future. Technologies already exist for <a href="https://edgy.app/bioplastics-biopolymers-agricultural-waste-industry-standard-2020">making fuels and plastic from the agricultural waste</a> of straw, grain husks and potato peel. These alternatives sadly won’t compete with cheap oil until we pay the full cost of our current lifestyles with a carbon tax. To avoid mass extinctions, we need transformative change in our politics, economics and technology to preserve and sustainably use the incredible natural resources that Earth provides.</p>
<p>A painless first step towards making this change is something you could do every day: our one minute cure for plant blindness. If we stop, think and appreciate how plants enrich our lives, we will learn to respect our agricultural heritage and natural habitats and better manage the trade-offs between them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah McKim receives funding from BBSRC and the Royal Society of Edinburgh. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Halpin receives funding from BBSRC and The Royal Society. </span></em></p>We don’t notice the plant species we’re losing, but we won’t be able to ignore the effect of their loss on our supply of food and medicine.Sarah McKim, Principal Investigator of Plant Developmental Biology, University of DundeeClaire Halpin, Professor of Plant Biology and Biotechnology, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1154682019-04-16T09:53:48Z2019-04-16T09:53:48ZHow Indonesia’s election puts global biodiversity at stake with an impending war on palm oil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269292/original/file-20190415-147487-vsosuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan from Sumatra, Indonesia</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Maxime Aliaga / Sumatran Orangutan Conservation Programme</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week, Indonesia will hold a presidential election that will make or break incumbent Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s chances of getting a second term in a rematch with his nemesis, Prabowo Subianto. </p>
<p>Jokowi’s re-election may put global biodiversity at risk as he is threatening to <a href="http://www.foresthints.news/worry-eu-move-may-prompt-jakarta-to-lift-palm-oil-moratorium">renege on a national moratorium</a> he declared on new palm-oil plantations — which could quickly escalate deforestation in Papua, Borneo, Sumatra, and beyond.</p>
<p>Almost overnight, Jokowi has transformed from an environmental good-guy — someone who’s battled destructive wildfires and noxious haze, tried to slow palm oil expansion and promoted several other eco-smart measures — into a nationalistic mouthpiece for the oil palm industry.</p>
<p>Let’s hope this ‘Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde’ transformation of Jokowi is temporary — a kind of fleeting election madness that overtakes many politicians in the heat of battle. </p>
<p>If not, Indonesia’s forests and the endangered species living in them will be at even more risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN?category=summary&economicImpact=eyJ5ZWFyIjoyMDA1fQ%3D%3D&treeLossTsc=eyJoaWdobGlnaHRlZCI6ZmFsc2V9">From 2001 to 2017</a>, Indonesia lost 24.4 million hectares of forest cover — an area larger than the United Kingdom — making it one of the worst forest-destroyers and greenhouse-gas emitters on Earth. </p>
<p>Such rampant forest loss greatly imperils the intensely high concentrations of endangered animals in Indonesia, which is one of the biologically richest nations on Earth. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269287/original/file-20190415-147514-16w9m5x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Massive concentrations of endangered animals in Indonesia and Southeast Asia.</span>
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</figure>
<h2>What’s happening?</h2>
<p>Indonesia is the world’s largest palm-oil producer. Together with Malaysia, its neighbouring country, Indonesia produces <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-4-431-54895-9_10">over 85%</a> of the world’s palm oil. </p>
<p>In September last year, Jokowi imposed a <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN?category=summary&economicImpact=eyJ5ZWFyIjoyMDA1fQ%3D%3D&treeLossTsc=eyJoaWdobGlnaHRlZCI6ZmFsc2V9">moratorium</a> on new oil-palm plantations. Though only partially effective, his initiative was applauded by conservationists and scientists worldwide. </p>
<p>But now, barely six months later, Jokowi is <a href="http://www.foresthints.news/worry-eu-move-may-prompt-jakarta-to-lift-palm-oil-moratorium">threatening to backtrack</a> on his much-praised moratorium. Why?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269313/original/file-20190415-147525-15wxzvf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Rainforest destruction for oil-palm plantations in Borneo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rhett Butler / Mongabay</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jokowi wants to punish the European Union (EU) — for introducing a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels/sustainability-criteria">measure</a> to <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/03/europe-in-bid-to-phase-out-palm-biofuel-leaves-fans-and-foes-dismayed/">phase out</a> biofuels produced from palm oil by 2030. </p>
<p>Jokowi has <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/02/indonesian-candidates-find-common-ground-in-support-for-palm-oil/">vowed</a> to boost biofuel use within Indonesia, to improve the country’s energy self-sufficiency. His presidential opponent, Prabowo, has made similar promises. </p>
<h2>The EU’s phase-out plan</h2>
<p>The EU’s rather <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/11/4111">bungled experimentation</a> with biofuels started in 2003, in an attempt to reduce their use of fossil fuels and greenhouse-gas emissions. They quickly became the <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/cars-and-trucks-burn-almost-half-all-palm-oil-used-europe">biggest consumer</a> of biofuels in the world. </p>
<p>The EU’s biofuel spree was initially a bonanza for Indonesia and Malaysia. Industrial plantations and smallholders alike expanded already-massive estates into forests and carbon-rich peatlands to take advantage of the situation. </p>
<p>But the Orangutan in the room is that the EU failed to realise just how much deforestation was caused by oil palm, both directly and indirectly.</p>
<p>In response, alarmed environmental organisations and scientists warned that the EU was actually <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/11/4111">driving deforestation</a> — producing far more greenhouse gases from forest destruction than they’d save by marginally reducing fossil-fuel use. </p>
<p>Hence, the EU now plans to phase out palm oil.</p>
<h2>Blame for the EU too</h2>
<p>As this saga unfolds, there’s plenty of blame to go around. The EU’s new policies are flawed because their palm oil “phase-out” does not in any way stop EU importers from buying palm oil from Indonesia – it only prevents them from including those supplies in their renewable-energy targets. </p>
<p>And if palm oil is certified as deforestation-free — which certain producers are able to do — then it can be freely bought by the EU too. </p>
<p>For their part, Indonesia and Malaysia have been playing hardball with the EU for many months, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/04/15/indonesia-threatens-to-challenge-eu-at-wto-in-palm-oil-feud.html">pledging to launch a World Trade Organisation (WTO) challenge</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3003214/indonesia-pushes-palm-oil-companies-take-legal-action">encouraging palm oil companies to file law suits against the EU</a>, and <a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/03/22/indonesia-threatens-to-ban-european-goods/">threatening</a> to <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3003709/mahathir-mohamad-says-european-union-risks-trade-war">ban European goods</a>. </p>
<p>Indonesia and Malaysia’s tactics have shifted to promoting smaller and medium-sized producers collectively called “smallholders” — traditionally thought not to cause massive forest loss. </p>
<p>But smallholders now comprise over 50% of Indonesia’s palm oil estate, and they are one of the <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf044">largest forest destroyers of all</a>. </p>
<p>Helping “smallholders” has become the catch-cry of the Nigeria-based <a href="https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Initiative_for_Public_Policy_Analysis">Initiative for Public Policy Analysis</a>, a lobbying group partly supported by climate-sceptics combating efforts to slow global warming.</p>
<p>Malaysia is now spending big money to get the Nigeria group to lobby the EU on its behalf. </p>
<h2>Election fever</h2>
<p>With the pending election, Jokowi’s threats to revoke the moratorium on palm oil have gone from nerve-wracking to flat-out scary. </p>
<p>Beyond declaring that he may jettison his palm-oil moratorium, he’s even threatening to sidestep the EU completely and have Indonesia <a href="https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/article/palm-oil-a-hot-issue-in-indonesian-election/">sell much of its palm oil to China and India</a> — massive consumers that are happy to buy palm oil regardless of its source or impact on forest destruction — as long as it’s as cheap as possible. Malaysia is similarly considering <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/palmoil-exports-idUSL3N1AJ1AH">new markets with weak environmental records in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>And in a true pique of recklessness, Indonesia is even threatening to <a href="https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Initiative_for_Public_Policy_Analysis">pull out of the Paris climate accords</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269317/original/file-20190415-147522-1c6lupz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Razing forest for oil palm in Kalimantan, Indonesia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Gilbert / Greenpeace</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Take-home lessons</h2>
<p>Above all, let’s hope sanity returns once the Indonesian elections are over.</p>
<p>Jokowi’s oil-palm moratorium is far from perfect, with breaches of the current moratorium being reported <a href="http://www.foresthints.news/no-resolve-evident-in-palm-oil-moratorium-enforcement">almost daily</a>.</p>
<p>But for all its faults, the moratorium has indeed slowed the rate of forest loss. It includes not just a freeze on new licences, but also a planned review of oil-palm licensing which, if implemented, would catch big and small illegal forest destroyers alike.</p>
<p>And for all its weaknesses, the EU’s ‘phase-out’ is a step in the right direction as long as it doesn’t open the door to other biofuel crops such as <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/biofuels-commission-blacklists-palm-oil-throws-soybeans-lifeline/">soy</a> — much of which also comes from destroying forests. </p>
<p>So, let’s see who gets elected on April 17. </p>
<p>If Jokowi, it’s vital that we all implore him to leave his moratorium in place. </p>
<p>If Prabowo, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/02/indonesian-candidates-find-common-ground-in-support-for-palm-oil/">who largely mirrors Jokowi’s pro-oil-palm positions</a>, we’ll likely be facing comparably serious environmental challenges.</p>
<p>Whoever wins, we’ll need to watch Indonesia, Malaysia, and Europe closely — to see whether they pursue sustainable-development policies generally. Or effectively become forest-destroying puppets of their powerful agriculture lobbies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Laurance receives funding various scientific and philanthropic organisations. He is the director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science at James Cook University in Cairns, Australia, and founded and directs ALERT -- the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers & Thinkers -- a science-advocacy group that reaches 1-2 million readers weekly.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Penny van Oosterzee tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Jokowi’s re-election may put the global biodiversity at riskBill Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook UniversityPenny van Oosterzee, Adjunct Associate Professor James Cook University and University Fellow Charles Darwin University, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967012018-11-21T11:50:33Z2018-11-21T11:50:33ZThe government aims to boost ethanol without evidence that it saves money or helps the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246308/original/file-20181119-76144-1y56c2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A fan of fuel blends that contain as much as 85 percent ethanol.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Farm-Scene-E85-Outlook-Minneapolis/114b1a11cbfb4a59acd7ffbb0164a5c1/5/0">AP Photo/Jim Mone</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/10/656079682/trump-orders-epa-to-lift-regulations-on-ethanol">promised his supporters in Iowa</a> that the federal government will take a step that may increase corn ethanol sales. </p>
<p>This plant-derived fuel, which comprises about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=27&t=10">10 percent of the 143 billion gallons</a> of gasoline Americans buy each year, is a kind of alcohol made from corn. The industry first emerged in 1980s with government support, after interest in making the country less reliant on imported oil surged in the 1970s. It later acquired a second purpose: lowering greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7qNwVHkAAAAJ&hl=en'">spent the last 24 years studying alternative fuels</a> and fuel blends. Based on my research, and as a consumer, I can say that increasing the amount of ethanol blended with gasoline creates problems with older engines and potentially increases air pollution due to increased fuel evaporation while doing little to curb climate change.</p>
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<h2>E10 and E15</h2>
<p>Americans have been mixing ethanol and gasoline since Henry Ford touted the potential of biofuels. <a href="https://www.fuelfreedom.org/tag/model-t/">His Model T</a> could run on gasoline or ethanol or a combination.</p>
<p>But ethanol use only took off in the 1970s following the energy crisis. Its use expanded greatly during George W. Bush’s administration, with the advent of the <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/laws/RFS.html">Renewable Fuel Standard in 2005</a>. This federal program mandated that increasing amounts of renewable fuels be mixed with gasoline and diesel. The program has set a target for the domestic consumption of <a href="https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program/overview-renewable-fuel-standard">15 billion gallons of corn ethanol</a> since 2015.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5qDYoEupI28?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ford made its first flex-fuel car a century ago.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most engines can safely run on a blend of 90 percent gasoline and 10 percent corn ethanol, the standard formulation known as E10 that is available at most American gas stations. E15 is a blend containing 15 percent ethanol. This blend is not available in every state.</p>
<p>And where E15 is sold, it isn’t currently available year-round.</p>
<p>That’s because the additional 5 percent of ethanol, combined with summer heat, would increase the <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.8b00366?journalCode=enfue">tendency of blended fuels to evaporate</a> The evaporated emissions from fuels can contribute to the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ethanol-fuels-ozone-pollution/">formation of ozone</a>, a major component of smog. In hotter weather, <a href="https://www.livescience.com/58117-does-gasoline-go-bad.html">ethanol can exacerbate pollution problems</a> in cities. Trump’s proposal would eliminate the existing summer ban on E15 sales.</p>
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<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Removing the ban would probably boost ethanol sales, aiding farmers who grow the corn used to make the roughly <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable">16 billion gallons</a> of it the U.S. produced in 2017, including exports, and the ethanol industry overall.</p>
<p>Because a higher percentage of ethanol means a lower percentage of petroleum, using more ethanol hurts petroleum refiners. It would also pose a logistical challenge. Ethanol cannot go into oil or gas pipelines because it <a href="https://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/Ethanol.htm">absorbs excess water and impurities</a> within pipelines. That means <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_production.html">rail cars and tanker trucks</a> transport all ethanol. </p>
<p>Although ethanol proponents say its use cuts carbon emissions, the evidence is mixed.</p>
<p>The government has determined that corn ethanol is much <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_fuel_basics.html">less effective than other biofuels</a> at reducing carbon emissions, producing only 1.5 to 2.1 units of energy for every unit used to produce it. This is much less efficient than biodiesel made from soybean oil, which produces <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.269.7061">5.5 units</a> of renewable energy for every unit consumed in production.</p>
<p>The ethanol Brazilians make from sugarcane residues does a much better job of shrinking that country’s carbon footprint. Converting sugarcane wastes into ethanol produces more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1448">9.4 units of energy</a> for every unit that producing this fuel consumes.</p>
<h2>Flawed arguments</h2>
<p>One of the original goals behind mandating ethanol blends was to reduce oil imports. While corn ethanol does directly displace gasoline consumption, other efforts to reduce oil imports have had far more impact.</p>
<p>The share of oil the U.S. imports has fallen in recent years, but that decline is largely due to a domestic production boom brought on by hydraulic fracturing, often called fracking, horizontal drilling and other <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20892">technological advances</a>. Increased domestic output has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a">displaced 54.5 billion gallons of imported oil</a>
annually – more than three times the roughly <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable">15 billion gallons</a> of oil per year ethanol is displacing. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.biodiesel.org/production/production-statistics">Biodiesel and renewable diesel</a>, made from vegetable oils and animal fats, are displacing another nearly 3 billion gallons of diesel derived from petroleum per year.</p>
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<p>A <a href="https://vimeo.com/253081178">TV commercial</a> I’ve seen during football games touted two other flawed arguments in favor of increasing corn ethanol production: that E15 will mean “cleaner air” at a “lower cost.” </p>
<p>The problem is that blending ethanol with other fuels <a href="https://www.concawe.eu/publication/report-no-1313/">lowers their energy content</a>, slightly decreasing fuel economy. It may cost a bit less to fill up your tank but based on my calculations the decrease in miles per gallon that E15 would yield will mean it makes no difference on your wallet.</p>
<p>Likewise, the claim that E15 leads to cleaner air is not justifiable.</p>
<p>For one thing, all vehicles made since 1975 have <a href="https://auto.howstuffworks.com/catalytic-converter.htm">catalytic converters</a> that remove unburned hydrocarbons and other airborne pollutants. For another, the Energy Department has not detected any across-the-board reduction in tailpipe emissions associated with ethanol use. Instead, it has observed that using more ethanol may slightly increase the <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/flexible_fuel_emissions.html">tailpipe emissions of aldehydes</a>, which are <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/mmg/mmg.asp?id=216&tid=39">respiratory irritants</a>.</p>
<h2>Old cars and chainsaws</h2>
<p>All cars since model year 2001 can operate safely on E15, but not older cars. Vehicles manufactured before 2001 could suffer fuel system or engine damage if they’re run on E15. The government requires the labeling of all E15 fuel pumps to prevent accidental use for this reason.</p>
<p>A bipartisan bill is pending in Congress that would take this notification further by making the labels bigger and mandating that they <a href="https://www.sema.org/sema-enews/2018/21/federal-bill-introduced-to-require-larger-fuel-pump-warning-labels-for-e15">warn consumers</a> to check their owners’ manuals.</p>
<p>Another problem is that concentrations of ethanol in excess of 10 percent <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.2172/949053">can hurt non-automotive engines</a>, the Energy Department has found. These include, for example, the motors in lawn and garden equipment, motorcycles and <a href="https://www.boats.com/how-to/the-outboard-expert-ethanol-fuel-and-e15-update/">speedboats</a>.</p>
<p>Smaller engines lack computer controls able to adjust to operation on ethanol blends. If, say, the chain on your chainsaw engages without you intending it to, you could be in real danger. This malfunctioning can potentially cause <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20222526">accidents in which people lose fingers or even limbs</a>.</p>
<p>Even once manufacturers redesign their weed-whacker and chainsaw engines to become compatible with higher ethanol blends, consumers who own older equipment would remain at risk of having them break down due to changes in fuel composition if E15 becomes the norm at filling stations.</p>
<p>People who own lawn and garden equipment and speedboats would have to go out of their way to avoid this problem by buying “<a href="https://www.pure-gas.org/about">pure gasoline</a>.”</p>
<p>In short, year-round sales of E15 probably aren’t going to do much to reduce oil imports or trim the nation’s carbon footprint. It would take more ambitious and strategic energy policies to achieve those worthwhile goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Boehman serves on the Technical Advisory Board for Oberon Fuels (San Diego, CA). Prof. Boehman has received research funding from the US Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, US EPA, US Army TARDEC and other federal agencies, various state organizations and many industrial partners. </span></em></p>Vehicles made before 2001 could suffer fuel system or engine damage if they’re run on E15.André Boehman, Professor of Mechanical Engineering; Director, W.E. Lay Automotive Laboratory, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1007892018-09-05T20:12:35Z2018-09-05T20:12:35ZFarmers in Guatemala are destroying dams to fight ‘dirty’ renewable energy<p>One morning last year, Santiago, a <em>campesino</em> (peasant farmer) who grows corn and mangoes in southwestern Guatemala, left his home with a plan to engage in industrial sabotage.</p>
<p>Santiago (not his real name) was frustrated by the diversion of the Ixpátz River. Formerly a communal water source for drinking, cleaning and subsistence crop irrigation, the Ixpátz and four other rivers in the Champerico area had been re-routed from their natural courses and into large plantations. Joining forces with other small farmers, Santiago set out with pickaxes and sticks to break up dikes by hand. </p>
<p>Known locally as “liberating rivers,” this new social movement tactic has <a href="http://www.albedrio.org/htm/otrosdocs/comunicados/EnfoqueNo.40-Devuelvan%20nuestro%20rio.pdf">spread across the lowlands near Guatemala’s Pacific coast since 2016</a>. A growing number of communities are supporting one another to dismantle the unauthorized dams, wells and irrigation motors installed along many of the <a href="http://www.insivumeh.gob.gt/hidrologia/rios%20de%20guate.htm">18 major rivers and their tributaries</a> that flow into the Pacific Ocean. </p>
<p>With sugarcane and palm plantations expanding in part to meet global demand for biofuel, such a conflict points to a clash between renewable energy and the people affected by its production.</p>
<p>In 2017, after conducting nine years of research on land conflicts in Guatemala, I began to interview the people liberating rivers. The clash over rivers struck me as at once unique and emblematic of broader social and environmental turmoil. </p>
<h2>Bitter sugar</h2>
<p>The world is searching for cleaner sources of energy. Fossil fuel production is finite, environmentally destructive and politically contentious. These concerns have made growth industries out of alternative energies such as hydroelectricity and biofuel, which <a href="https://www.seeker.com/top-10-sources-for-biofuel-1769457447.html">counts sugarcane and African palm among its top sources</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233365/original/file-20180823-149469-1qsdddq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fruit bunches from the African oil palm are transported from a plantation to an extraction plant, in Sayaxche, Guatemala in February 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Guatemala, this growth has shaken up patterns of land and water usage. Guatemala is <a href="http://www.azucar.com.gt/azucar-de-guatemala-en-el-mundo/#4to-lugar">the world’s fourth largest exporter of sugar</a>, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2018.1499093">follows only Indonesia and Malaysia</a> for palm oil exports and the country is the <a href="http://www.mem.gob.gt/2015/12/guatemala-es-el-mayor-exportador-de-energia-en-c-a/">largest Central American exporter of electricity</a>. </p>
<p>Biofuel production in Guatemala <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0961953415300040?via%3Dihub">responds predominantly to European demand</a>. The hydroelectricity the country generates is largely consumed domestically, with around <a href="http://www.mem.gob.gt/2015/12/guatemala-es-el-mayor-exportador-de-energia-en-c-a/">one-third of it sold to the Central American regional market in 2014</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/05/04/fact-sheet-us-caribbean-and-central-american-energy-summit">The United States</a> and intergovernmental agencies such as the <a href="https://www.iadb.org/en/topics/energy/renewable-energy%2C19008.html">Inter-American Development Bank</a> have heavily promoted both energy sources. </p>
<p>Land dedicated to sugarcane in Guatemala <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joac.12150">grew by 46 per cent between 2001 and 2012</a>, with expansion concentrated along the Pacific coast. There, and in particular within the department of Suchitepéquez, sugarcane coverage grew <a href="http://idear.congcoop.org.gt/publicaciones/35-la-expansion-de-la-cana-de-azucar-en-suchitepequez-y-su-impacto-en-la-subsitencia-de-la-poblacion-del-altiplano-guatemalteco">primarily through the termination of land rental agreements with <em>campesinos</em></a>. Palm oil plantations expanded even faster, with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2018.1499093">270 per cent increase in land used for the crop over 10 years</a>, mostly in Guatemala’s northern lowlands.</p>
<p>Upstream from the Pacific coast, these same rivers are also being dammed to produce electricity. Thirty-seven hydroelectric dams are operating or under construction within the coastal departments of Retalhuleu, Suchitepéquez, Escuintla and Santa Rosa. </p>
<p>Hydro and biofuel are intimately connected through more than the use of the same rivers. Sugarcane producers also <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/energia_ingles_072412.pdf">generate electricity onsite</a> by burning the crop’s biomass pulp, and many of the small hydroelectric dams in the Pacific region are financed by sugar companies. In 2016, the Panama Papers leak shined light on <a href="https://cmiguate.org/el-grupo-campollo-y-los-panama-papers/">a consortium including 10 of Guatemala’s 12 sugarcane producers</a>, which exports electricity directly and <a href="https://elfaro.net/es/201704/centroamerica/20091/El-cartel-del-az%C3%BAcar-de-Guatemala.htm">invests in 116 offshore companies</a>.</p>
<p>Many local residents also take issue with the dams due to water usage, land access and pollution.</p>
<h2>Water theft</h2>
<p>All of this has had a negative impact on the lives of rural Guatemalans. </p>
<p>Sugarcane requires <a href="http://www.fao.org/land-water/databases-and-software/crop-information/maize/en/">three times more water than corn</a>, the primary subsistence crop grown by Guatemalan <em>campesinos</em>. African palm, rubber and banana plantations under expansion in the Pacific region have also diverted community water to satisfy irrigation needs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233368/original/file-20180824-149490-8s7jhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Field worker Jose Contreras, 31, carries sugar cane stalks on a field near Retalhuleu, Guatemala, on Nov. 25, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Due to a shortage of water, plantations have begun “stealing” water, in the words of people from surrounding communities: diverting river routes, mechanically extracting river water and drilling deep wells. </p>
<p>This drainage of publicly accessible water is occurring in a region where many communities lack piped water for household use. The strain on such a vital resource explains the discontent of those who choose to destroy industrial property and return river water by force.</p>
<h2>Violence and death</h2>
<p>The social movement that came together around the river water near the Pacific coast did not form in a vacuum. Across Guatemala since at least 2005, communities affected by the expansion of agro-industry, hydroelectric dams and mining have developed innovative tactics in attempts to block these extractive projects.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233361/original/file-20180823-149490-1q2baqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People line up to vote against mining in San Juan Ostuncalco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jo5h_h/5459477003">My Mom is Wolves/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One widespread form of opposition has been the <em>consultas</em> votes held by affected communities. Around one million Guatemalans voted overwhelmingly against local extractive projects in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/usnr20/27/3">78 instances between 2005 and 2013</a>, setting off a number of legal challenges and leading to the suspension of some licenses. </p>
<p>The <em>consultas</em> are locally organized plebiscites whose validity has been recognized by the Guatemalan constitutional court. The plebiscites draw on the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C169">internationally established right of Indigenous peoples</a> — which includes most Guatemalan <em>campesinos</em> — to <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/DRIPS_en.pdf">free, prior and informed consent over economic development</a> within their traditional lands. </p>
<p>Where opposition is strong, however, repression has followed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/sites/amnesty/files/mining-in-guatemala-rights-at-risk-eng.pdf">Activists opposed to mining have been killed</a> in relation to all four Canadian-financed mines in operation in Guatemala since 2005. Four lawsuits in Canada are currently <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2013.761954">trying mining companies</a> for violence conducted by their security guards in Guatemala: one charges <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/guatemala-mining-tahoe-resources-idUSL1N1FG1VN">Tahoe Resources</a> for the shooting of seven protesters in 2013, and three charge <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/06/20/the-mayans-vs-the-mine.html">Hudbay Minerals</a> for the murder of one man and shooting of another in 2009, and the gang-rape of eleven women in 2007.</p>
<p>Of the 134 human rights defenders killed between 2007 and 2017 in Guatemala, my research has found that at least 61 were active in the resistance to resource extraction, including mining, dams, agro-industry and more. These figures align with an international trend: the NGO Global Witness reported the <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-activists/defenders-annual-report/">murder of 207 land and environmental defenders in 2017 alone</a>. </p>
<h2>Dirty renewables</h2>
<p>Violence against those engaged in water battles on the Pacific coast has not been as extreme as that seen around Canadian mines, but the movement has experienced repression. </p>
<p>I spoke with one man who faced this violence personally, when private security guards from a sugar company allegedly ambushed the river liberation action he participated in. “In that moment, well, I had bad luck, and they hit me with a pellet from a shotgun. But we did manage to liberate that river, at least for now.”</p>
<p>Even though many rivers have been freed by communities across the Pacific coastal region, the struggle is far from over. Santiago, who helped free the Ixpátz River, now takes part in foot patrols to prevent further theft from any of the five waterways near his community in Champerico. </p>
<p>At another community in Suchitepéquez, a river was freed and now runs deeply, but residents note that the returned water is polluted. “There is a rubber plantation upstream and they throw all their waste into the Icán River,” said Julio. “So the water comes this way and you can’t drink it. The animals do, but we can’t drink that water.”</p>
<p>The social movement tactics referred to as river liberation have opened a new front in an ongoing struggle over land and water usage Guatemala. Consumers in North America and Europe are right to encourage a transition to renewable forms of energy, but we must also look deeper into alternative industries, and ensure that no harm is done in our name. </p>
<p><em>All names in this article have been changed</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100789/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Granovsky-Larsen conducts research and solidarity work with the Comité Campesino del Altiplano (CCDA), a Guatemalan peasant social movement organization that has supported the river liberation movement. He has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a member of the board of directors of the Canadian Association for Latin American and Caribbean Studies.</span></em></p>Increased use of renewable energies could help curb climate change, but the water required for their production has dispossessed rural Guatemalans.Simon Granovsky-Larsen, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Studies, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/915442018-02-27T06:54:58Z2018-02-27T06:54:58ZWhy New Zealand should not explore for more natural gas reserves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207943/original/file-20180226-120776-1r3hubl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The New Zealand government is introducing legislation to become zero-carbon by 2050, but will consider new permits for coal mining, offshore oil drilling and fracking on a case-by-case basis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutter stock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand’s new coalition government has committed to introducing zero-carbon legislation that would set the country on a course to be <a href="http://www.labour.org.nz/climatechange">carbon neutral by 2050</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, it is <a href="https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/346415/mining-permits-to-be-taken-case-by-case-ardern">not ruling out new permits</a> for coal mining, offshore oil drilling and fracking during a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Natural gas is often touted as a “bridging fuel” to cut the use of coal for heat and power while moving towards a low-carbon economy. Also, this week’s <a href="http://www.scionresearch.com/science/bioenergy/nz-biofuels-roadmap">report by the crown research institute Scion</a> shows that New Zealand could build a renewable low-carbon transport fuels industry by switching to biofuels instead of natural gas. Developing new gas resources in New Zealand is a shortsighted strategy that could lead to stranded assets.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2050-climate-targets-nations-are-playing-the-long-game-in-fighting-global-warming-69334">2050 climate targets: nations are playing the long game in fighting global warming</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Carbon budget</h2>
<p>Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a long-lived greenhouse gas. Each molecule released into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels remains there for hundreds of years. <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">Analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> shows that once we reach a total of 2,900 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO₂) in the atmosphere, the planet will likely exceed the internationally agreed target to keep warming below two degrees above pre-industrial levels.</p>
<p>More than 1,900 Gt CO₂ have already been emitted since the late 19th century. We are currently adding around 33 Gt CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion and 5 Gt CO₂ from deforestation every year. The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has now surged to <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-new-record">more than 403 parts per million</a>, the highest in millions of years. The planet is already around one degree warmer than the average pre-industrial temperature.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207970/original/file-20180227-140200-u93wht.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This graphic shows that we have already used up around two-thirds of the total carbon budget to avoid exceeding a two-degree average temperature rise (with a 66% chance).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=Assessment%20Reports&r=AR5%20-%20WG1">IPCC, Working Group 1, 2013</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The remaining <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/">carbon budget</a>, with a 66% chance of staying below the two-degree target, is now at about 800 Gt CO₂. At the current business-as-usual rate of fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, the total budget will be exceeded within 20 to 25 years. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-hit-record-high-after-unexpected-growth-global-carbon-budget-2017-87248">Fossil fuel emissions hit record high after unexpected growth: Global Carbon Budget 2017</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By then, we will have used up around two-fifths of the known global reserves of coal, oil and natural gas. The remaining three-fifths will need to stay in the ground. </p>
<h2>Gas as a transition fuel</h2>
<p>Natural gas is described as a “transition fuel” that cuts the use of coal. This argument, and the case for providing greater energy security, is being used to <a href="http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2580450-135/oil-and-gas-lets-stick-to">justify exploration for deep sea oil and gas</a> in New Zealand waters. </p>
<p>Displacing coal by burning conventional natural gas does <a href="https://www.db.com/cr/en/docs/Natural_Gas_LCA_Update_082511.pdf">indeed produce lower emissions</a>, while providing the same heat or electricity services. A coal-fired power station produces around 900-1100 g CO₂/kWh generated; a gas-fired plant produces around 450-500 g CO₂/kWh. By way of comparison, a geothermal plant varies with the field but can emit up to 50 g CO₂/kWh and emissions from other renewable energy plants vary widely with the circumstances but tend to be much lower.</p>
<p>However, on a life-cycle basis, any carbon dioxide reduction benefits would be partially negated by <a href="http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/60392">leakage of methane</a> (CH₄), the main component of natural gas. Leakage is inevitable during the extraction, distribution and use of natural gas. It is difficult to determine the level of leakage, but it is more certain that emissions from coal or gas plants are significantly higher than from a renewable energy plant of similar generation output.</p>
<p>Natural gas has the potential to extend the time before the carbon budget is used up, assuming it displaces coal that would then be left in the ground. But the use of gas cannot deliver the deep cuts in emissions that will be required to stay below two degrees. </p>
<h2>Energy security and fossil fuel subsidies</h2>
<p>Many nations, including New Zealand, aim to improve their energy security by shifting to more indigenous fossil fuel resources to reduce their dependence on imports and widely fluctuating prices. Exploring for more gas to meet local demands at contracted prices may make good political sense in the short term, but it exacerbates climate change.</p>
<p>Fossil fuel exploration, production and consumption is widely subsidised by many governments. The International Energy Agency estimated the <a href="https://www.iea.org/statistics/resources/energysubsidies/">value of consumer subsidies in 2016 was over US$260 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Conversely, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-movement-to-divest-from-fossil-fuels-gains-momentum">divestment away from fossil fuel companies</a> is growing worldwide. For example, New York City is not only intending to divest US$5 billion of its holdings in fossil fuel assets, but also plans to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-municipals-fossilfuels/new-york-sues-fossil-fuel-majors-plans-divestment-from-pension-funds-idUSKBN1EZ2Q2">sue the major oil companies</a> over their contribution to climate change. </p>
<h2>New Zealand’s economy without more gas</h2>
<p>In New Zealand, natural gas is used to generate electricity and heat for industries, to produce methanol (mainly for export) and other petrochemical products such as urea. It also supplies around 277,000 domestic and commercial consumers in the North Island. </p>
<p>Currently around 1,200,000 tonnes per year (t/yr) of coal are consumed in New Zealand, mainly for heat and electricity, emitting around 2.6 Mt CO₂/yr. If all existing coal plants and heating systems were converted to gas, around 1.3 Mt CO₂/yr of emissions would be avoided. This would contribute a little towards the 20 Mt CO₂-eq/yr of emissions reductions needed to meet <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-post-2020-climate-change-target">New Zealand’s current 2030 target</a> under the <a href="http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/why-climate-change-matters/global-response/paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>However, given the Government’s target to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, gas will ultimately need to be entirely phased out together with coal and oil products. Therefore, the overall aims for New Zealand should be to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>use our existing reserves of natural gas wisely in order to gain maximum long-term economic benefits by maximising the return on investments already made, as well as reducing our annual CO₂ emissions by displacing coal and minimising methane leakage</p></li>
<li><p>invest significantly in research and development in sustainable energy, including low-carbon and economically viable alternatives for the current uses of existing gas supplies</p></li>
<li><p>clarify and quantify any fossil fuel producer and consumer subsidies and remove them in the near future</p></li>
<li><p>avoid the temptation to explore and develop new gas resources even if they appear to deliver short-term economic benefits; and </p></li>
<li><p>invest in renewable energy technologies, including biofuels, as long as they are produced from crop and forest residues and purpose-grown forests on marginal land, as identified in the Scion report.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Sims does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Natural gas is touted as a “bridging fuel” to displace coal while moving to a low-carbon economy. In New Zealand, this is shortsighted and could lead to stranded assets and hold back renewables.Ralph Sims, Professor, School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/892622017-12-21T14:20:18Z2017-12-21T14:20:18ZCreating a sustainable future: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199482/original/file-20171215-17863-17ib8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even pocket parks in cities (Duane Park in Lower Manhattan, pictured here) can shelter wildlife. Read below for ideas about urban biodiversity and other green innovations.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ec/Tribeca_duane_park.jpg">Aude</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much news about the environment in 2017 focused on controversies over Trump administration actions, such as proposals to promote more use of coal and budget cuts at relevant federal agencies. At the same time, however, many scholars across the United States are pursuing innovations that could help create a more sustainable world. Here we spotlight five examples from our 2017 archives.</p>
<h2>1. Restoring the Rio Grande</h2>
<p>Although many Americans may not realize it, the United States and Mexico work together on many environmental issues along their joint border, including drinking water, sanitation and flood control. Gabriel Diaz Montemayor, assistant professor of landscape architecture at the University of Texas at Austin, <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-a-better-vision-for-the-us-mexico-border-make-the-rio-grande-grand-again-73111">proposes a bolder vision</a>: greening the entire Rio Grande Valley, which forms more than half of the border. </p>
<p>Restoring vegetation along the river and creating more green space along both sides would help improve river flow and water quality, Montemayor writes. And it could make the border region an attraction that brings Mexicans and Americans together: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“As the Rio Grande advances to the Gulf of Mexico, it cuts through incredibly valuable, beautiful and remote landscapes, including Big Bend National Park in Texas and the Cañon de Santa Elena, Ocampo, and Maderas del Carmen reserves in Mexico. Traveling its length could become a trip comparable to hiking the Appalachian Trail, with opportunities to see recovering natural areas and wildlife and learn from two of the world’s richest cultures.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=852&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1071&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1071&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199488/original/file-20171215-17842-11454hj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1071&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">View of Tule Canyon and the Rio Grande from Burro Bluff, Big Bend National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nps.gov/rigr/planyourvisit/lower_cyns.htm">National Park Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Making jet fuel from sugarcane</h2>
<p>Jet airplane travel is one of the world’s fastest-growing greenhouse gas emissions sources. For this and other reasons, including concerns about oil price spikes, there is growing interest in producing jet fuel from nonpetroleum sources. </p>
<p>Researchers at the University of Illinois are working on making <a href="https://theconversation.com/jet-fuel-from-sugarcane-its-not-a-flight-of-fancy-84493">jet fuel from sugarcane</a>, an abundant and low-cost source. But they are doing it with a twist. Instead of fermenting cane juice into an alcohol-based fuel, as Brazil already does for motor vehicles, they have engineered the cane to produce oil that can be used to make biodiesel. </p>
<p>This engineered version, which they call lipidcane, could become a lucrative crop. “We calculate that growing lipidcane containing 20 percent oil would be five times more profitable per acre than soybeans, the main feedstock currently used to make biodiesel in the United States, and twice as profitable per acre as corn,” the authors write. They also are engineering it to be more cold tolerant so that it can be grown on marginal land in the southeastern United States. </p>
<h1>3. A legal right to a clean environment</h1>
<p>Are all humans <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-a-healthy-environment-a-human-right-testing-the-idea-in-appalachia-80372">entitled to live in a clean and healthy environment</a>? West Virginia University legal researcher Nicholas Stump and his colleagues are exploring this proposal in a challenging setting: Appalachia, where mining and logging have severely damaged the environment and polluted the air, water and soil. Appalachia is well-suited for a bottom-up, critically informed approach that focuses on human rights at the grassroots level, he writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Discussing rights at the local level will give people opportunity to describe specific harms they have experienced from activities such as mountaintop removal and fracking. It also will help to promote participatory democracy for citizens who have long been denied real self-determination.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This work is part of West Virginia University’s new <a href="https://aji.law.wvu.edu/home">Appalachian Justice Initiative</a>, which will include research, advocacy and direct legal services and outreach to Appalachian communities. “Our goal is to help people in our region call for laws and actions that actually guarantee the right to a healthy Appalachian environment,” Stump explains.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/66179035" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Appalachia residents protest mountaintop removal coal mining in Washington DC, May 8, 2013.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h1>4. Stemming world hunger with marine microalgae</h1>
<p>Feeding a growing world population sustainably in the coming decades will be a major environmental challenge. Large-scale farm production pollutes air and water, generates greenhouse gas emissions and degrades soil. </p>
<p>William Moomaw, professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University, and Asaf Tzachor, a Ph.D. candidate at University College London, see marine microalgae as <a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-solutions-for-a-macro-problem-how-marine-algae-could-help-feed-the-world-85702">a key untapped resource</a>. These tiny organisms live in fresh and salt water, and form the base of marine food chains. They are the sources of the omega-3 fatty acids and amino acids that humans get by eating fish. Moomaw and Tzachor call for “cutting out the middle fish” and developing foods based directly on microalgae.</p>
<p>“Most algae-based products are marketed in the United States as dietary supplements, but we believe the time has arrived to introduce algae-based foods to the dining table,” they write.</p>
<p>Microalgae can be grown in open ponds or sealed tubes in a laboratory. Moomaw and Tzachor calculate that producing one kilogram of beef-sourced essential amino acids would require 148,000 liters of freshwater and 125 square meters of fertile land. In contrast, producing the same amount from an omega-3 rich microalgae called <em>Nannochloropsis oculata</em>, raised in an open pond with brackish water, would require only 20 liters of freshwater and 1.6 square meters of nonfertile land.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199490/original/file-20171215-17848-g7ghjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Growing algae indoors in photobioreactors conserves land and water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Photobioreactor_PBR_4000_G_IGV_Biotech.jpg">IGV Biotech</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h1>5. Understanding biodiversity in cities</h1>
<p>Sustainable strategies for the future don’t have to be technically complex or sweeping. Geographer Christopher Swan of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, studies biodiversity in parks, backyards and other natural areas around the city of Baltimore. Swan wants to see <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-nature-what-kinds-of-plants-and-wildlife-flourish-in-cities-71680">what species thrive in cities</a> and how human activities affect them.</p>
<p>As urban dwellers build and remodel houses and develop neighborhoods, they divide urban space into small units with many edges, Swan has found: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“This benefits species that thrive at edges, like white-tailed deer and nuisance vines, but harms others that require larger interior habitats, such as certain birds. As human activities create a more fragmented environment, it becomes increasingly important to create linkages between natural areas, such as preserved forests, to maintain populations and their biodiversity.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Humans also move species around: They bring plants into their yard, and trap and remove nuisance animals such as squirrels.</p>
<p>Swan is working with his students to identify native plant species that can thrive in poor urban soils, and to identify species traits – such as offering habitat for pollinating insects – that can make species valuable in urban settings. With information like this, city managers can restore and support urban wildlife, making cities more inviting places to live.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Trump administration rollbacks dominated news about the environment in 2017 – but beyond Washington D.C., many researchers are developing innovative visions for a greener future.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/859762017-12-14T19:10:31Z2017-12-14T19:10:31ZSydney’s closer to being a zero-carbon city than you think<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197061/original/file-20171130-12069-1wyp7t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The potential clean energy sources are all around Sydney, just waiting to be harnessed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Collage by Rocco Furfaro</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You live in one of the sunniest countries in the world. You might want to use that solar advantage and harvest all this free energy. Knowing that solar panels are rapidly <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-is-now-the-most-popular-form-of-new-electricity-generation-worldwide-81678">becoming cheaper</a> and have become feasible even in less sunny places <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi0qODWquXXAhXLkJQKHSsDAlUQFghIMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F8ea432e4-a1e9-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2&usg=AOvVaw2r9bpKfg-3NLLpMHO0AgZa">like the UK</a>, this should be a no-brainer. </p>
<p>Despite this, the Australian government has taken a <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables-85978">step backwards</a> at a time when we should be thinking 30 years ahead. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables-85978">Will the national energy guarantee hit pause on renewables?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Can we do it differently? Yes, we can! My <a href="http://dutchlink.com.au/news/16-november-cleveringa-lecture-smart-urban-solutions-city-future-prof-rob-roggema-uts">ongoing research</a> on <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1442/htm">sustainable urbanism</a> makes it clear that if we use the available renewable resources in the Sydney region we do not need any fossil resource any more. We can become zero-carbon. (With Louisa King and <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/supporting-the-great-urban-energy-transition-tickets-34614868002#">Andy Van den Dobbelsteen</a>, I have prepared a forthcoming paper, Towards Zero-Carbon Metropolitan Regions: The Example of
Sydney, in the journal <a href="http://www.emeraldinsight.com/loi/sasbe">SASBE</a>.)</p>
<h2>Enough solar power for every household</h2>
<p>Abundant solar energy is available in the Sydney metropolitan area. If 25% of the houses each installed 35 square metres of solar panels, this could deliver all the energy for the city’s households.</p>
<p>We conservatively estimate a total yield of 195kWh/m<sup>2</sup> of PV panel placed on roofs or other horizontal surfaces. The potential area of all Sydney council precincts suited for PV is estimated at around 385km<sup>2</sup> – a quarter of the entire roof surface. </p>
<p>We calculate the potential total solar yield at 75.1TWh, which is more than current domestic household energy use (65.3TWh, according to the Jemena energy company).</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a>What’s the net cost of using renewables to hit Australia’s climate target?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Wind turbines to drive a whole city</h2>
<p>If we install small wind turbines on land and larger turbines offshore we can harvest enough energy to fuel our electric vehicle fleet. Onshore wind turbines of 1-5MW generating capacity can be positioned to capture the prevailing southwest and northeast winds. </p>
<p>The turbines are placed on top of ridges, making use of the funnel effect to increase their output. We estimate around 840km of ridge lines in the Sydney metropolitan area can be used for wind turbines, enabling a total of 1,400 turbines. The total potential generation from onshore wind turbines is 6.13TWh.</p>
<p>Offshore turbines could in principle be placed everywhere, as the wind strength is enough to create an efficient yield. The turbines are larger than the ones on shore, capturing 5-7.5MW each, and can be placed up to 30km offshore. With these boundary conditions, an offshore wind park 45km long and 6km wide is possible. The total offshore potential then is 5.18TWh. </p>
<p>Altogether, then, we estimate the Sydney wind energy potential at 11.3TWh.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197051/original/file-20171130-12040-19blk3q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Around 840km of ridge lines (marked in yellow and red) in the Sydney metropolitan area can be used for wind turbines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drawing by Hamish McKenzie</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-is-coal-still-cheaper-than-renewables-as-an-energy-source-81263">FactCheck Q&A: is coal still cheaper than renewables as an energy source?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Turning waste into biofuels</h2>
<p>We can turn our household waste and green waste from forests, parks and public green spaces into <a href="https://theconversation.com/biogas-smells-like-a-solution-to-our-energy-and-waste-problems-36136">biogas</a>. We can then use the existing gas network to provide heating and cooling for the majority of offices. </p>
<p>Biomass from domestic and green waste will be processed through anaerobic fermentation in old power plants to generate biogas. Gas reserves are created, stored and delivered through the existing power plants and gas grid. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/biogas-smells-like-a-solution-to-our-energy-and-waste-problems-36136">Biogas: smells like a solution to our energy and waste problems</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Algae has enormous potential for generating bio-energy. Algae can <a href="https://www.wired.com/2011/02/using-algae-to-clean-wastewater-make-fuel/">purify wastewater and at the same be harvested and processed</a> to generate <a href="https://theconversation.com/biofuel-breakthroughs-bring-negative-emissions-a-step-closer-82513">biofuels</a> (biodiesel and biokerosene). </p>
<p>Specific locations to grow algae are Botany Bay and Badgerys Creek. It’s noteworthy that both are close to airports, as algae could be important in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/algal-biofuels">providing a sustainable fuel resource for planes</a>. </p>
<p>Using algae arrays to treat the waste water of new precincts, roughly a million new households as currently <a href="https://www.greater.sydney/directions-greater-sydney#3">planned</a> in Western Sydney, enables the production of great quantities of biofuel. Experimental <a href="https://www.wur.nl/en/show/InteSusAl-algae-for-biofuel.htm">test fields</a> show <a href="http://vermontbioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/pattarkine-presentation.pdf">yields can be high</a>. A minimum of 20,000 litres of biodiesel per hectare of algae ponds is possible if organic wastewater is added. This quantity is realisable in Botany Bay and in western Sydney.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197055/original/file-20171130-12035-3elmnq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Biomass fermentation of household and green waste and wastewater treatment using algae arrays can generate biogas, biodiesel and biokerosene.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drawing by Michael Zappia</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/biofuel-breakthroughs-bring-negative-emissions-a-step-closer-82513">Biofuel breakthroughs bring ‘negative emissions’ a step closer</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Extracting heat from beneath the city</h2>
<p>Shallow <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-geothermal-energy-12913">geothermal heat</a> can be tapped through heat pumps and establishing closed loops in the soil. This can occur in large expanses of urban developments within the metropolitan area, which rests predominantly on deposits of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wianamatta_Shale">Wianamatta shale</a> in the west underlying Parramatta, Liverpool and Penrith. </p>
<p>Where large water surfaces are available, such as in Botany Bay or the Prospect Reservoir, heat can also be harvested from the water body. </p>
<p>The layers of the underlying <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_sandstone">Hawkesbury sandstone</a>, the bedrock for much of the region, can yield deep geothermal heat. This is done by pumping water into these layers and harvesting the steam as heat, hot water or converted electricity. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197056/original/file-20171130-12075-nmxzzm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sydney’s geology offers sources of both shallow and deep theothermal heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drawing by Louisa King</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-geothermal-energy-12913">Explainer: what is geothermal energy?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Hydropower from multiple sources</h2>
<p>The potential sources of energy from hydro generation are diverse. Tidal energy can be harvested at the entrances of Sydney Harbour Bay and Botany Bay, where tidal differences are expected to be highest. </p>
<p>Port Jackson, the Sydney Harbour bay and all of its estuaries have a total area of 55km<sup>2</sup>. With a tidal difference of two metres, the total maximum energy potential of a tidal plant would be 446TWh. If Sydney could harvest 20% of this, that would be more than twice the yield of solar panels on residential roofs.</p>
<p>If we use the tide to generate electricity, we can also create a surge barrier connecting Middle and South Head. Given the climatic changes occurring and still ahead of us, we need to plan how to protect the city from the threats of future cyclones, storm surges and flooding. </p>
<p>I have written <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sydney-barrier-reef-engineering-a-natural-defence-against-future-storms-76862">here</a> about the potential benefits of artificially creating a Sydney Barrier Reef. The reef, 30km at most out at sea, would provide Sydney with protection from storms.</p>
<p>At openings along the reef, wave power generators can be placed. Like tidal power, wave power can be calculated: mass displacement times gravity. If around 10km of the Sydney shoreline had wave power vessels, the maximum energy potential would be 3.2TWh.</p>
<p>In the mouths of the estuaries of Sydney Harbour and Botany Bay, freshwater meets saltwater. These places have a large potential to generate “blue energy” through reverse osmosis membrane technology. </p>
<p>To combine protective structures with tidal generating power, an open closure barrier is proposed for the mouth of Sydney Harbour. The large central gates need to be able to accommodate the entrance of large cruise ships and to close in times of a storm surge. At the same time, a tidal plant system operates at the sides of the barrier.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197059/original/file-20171130-12069-1owwdk3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the Sydney Harbour surge barrier and tidal plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drawing: Andy van den Dobbelsteen</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/catching-the-waves-its-time-for-australia-to-embrace-ocean-renewable-energy-66048">Catching the waves: it’s time for Australia to embrace ocean renewable energy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Master plan for a zero-carbon city</h2>
<p>All these potential energy sources are integrated into our Master Plan for a Zero-Carbon Sydney. Each has led to design propositions that together can create a zero-carbon city. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197069/original/file-20171130-12016-2p86xf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Zero-Carbon Sydney Master Plan maps out how the city can be fossil-free.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Drawing by Louisa King</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The research shows there is enough, more than enough, potential reliable renewable energy to supply every household and industry in the region. What is needed is an awareness that Australia could be a global frontrunner in innovative energy policy, instead of a laggard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Roggema does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Sun, wind, waste biomass, geothermal, tides and waves: all these energy sources in Sydney’s backyard add up to a zero-carbon energy solution for the city.Rob Roggema, Professor of Sustainable Urban Environments, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844932017-11-21T02:28:41Z2017-11-21T02:28:41ZJet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195271/original/file-20171117-11467-gqvp9d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A medium-size passenger jet burns roughly 750 gallons of fuel per hour.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/amazing-sunset-airport-refueling-airplane-before-745545028?src=dqDDnlUc7q9u2xl2el72dQ-1-3">www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The aviation industry produces <a href="http://www.atag.org/facts-and-figures.html">2 percent</a> of global human-induced carbon dioxide emissions. This share may seem relatively small – for perspective, electricity generation and home heating account for <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustion_Highlights_2016.pdf">more than 40 percent</a> – but aviation is one of the world’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/business/energy-environment/un-agency-proposes-limits-on-airlines-carbon-emissions.html">fastest-growing greenhouse gas sources</a>. Demand for air travel is projected to <a href="http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2016-10-18-02.aspx">double in the next 20 years</a>. </p>
<p>Airlines are <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37573434">under pressure</a> to reduce their carbon emissions, and are highly vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. These challenges have spurred strong interest in biomass-derived jet fuels. Bio-jet fuel can be produced from various plant materials, including oil crops, sugar crops, starchy plants and lignocellulosic biomass, through various chemical and biological routes. However, the technologies to convert oil to jet fuel are at a more advanced stage of development and yield higher energy efficiency than other sources.</p>
<p>We are engineering sugarcane, the most productive plant in the world, to produce oil that can be turned into bio-jet fuel. In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12478">recent study</a>, we found that use of this engineered sugarcane could yield more than 2,500 liters of bio-jet fuel per acre of land. In simple terms, this means that a Boeing 747 could fly for 10 hours on bio-jet fuel produced on just 54 acres of land. Compared to two competing plant sources, soybeans and jatropha, lipidcane would produce about 15 and 13 times as much jet fuel per unit of land, respectively. </p>
<h2>Creating dual-purpose sugarcane</h2>
<p>Bio-jet fuels derived from oil-rich feedstocks, such as <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/02/camelina-biofuel-solution-food-vs-fuel-biofuel-conundrum/">camelina</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/algal-biofuels">algae</a>, have been successfully tested in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ep.10461">proof of concept flights</a>. ASTM International, a global standards development organization, has <a href="https://www.astm.org/cms/drupal-7.51/newsroom/astm-aviation-fuel-standard-now-specifies-bioderived-components">approved</a> a 50:50 blend of petroleum-based jet fuel and hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel for commercial and military flights. </p>
<p>However, even after significant research and commercialization efforts, current production volumes of bio-jet fuel are very small. Making these products on a larger scale will require further technology improvements and abundant low-cost feedstocks (crops used to make the fuel).</p>
<p>Sugarcane is a well-known biofuel source: Brazil has been fermenting sugarcane juice to make alcohol-based fuel for decades. Ethanol from sugarcane yields 25 percent more energy than the amount used during the production process, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 12 percent <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0604600103">compared to fossil fuels</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195274/original/file-20171117-11457-17g9q28.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harvesting sugarcane in Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/03/Harvestor_cutting_sugarcane.jpg">Jonathan Wilkins</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We wondered whether we could increase the plant’s natural oil production and use the oil to produce biodiesel, which provides even greater environmental benefits. Biodiesel yields <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0604600103">93 percent more energy</a> than is required to make it and reduces emissions by 41 percent compared to fossil fuels. Ethanol and biodiesel can both be used in bio-jet fuel, but the technologies to convert plant-derived oil to jet fuel are at an advanced stage of development, yield high energy efficiency and are ready for large-scale deployment.</p>
<p>When we first proposed engineering sugarcane to produce more oil, some of our colleagues thought we were crazy. Sugarcane plants contain just 0.05 percent oil, which is far too little to convert to biodiesel. Many plant scientists theorized that increasing the amount of oil to 1 percent would be toxic to the plant, but our computer models predicted that we could increase oil production to 20 percent.</p>
<p>With support from the Department of Energy’s <a href="https://arpa-e.energy.gov/">Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy</a>, we launched a research project called <a href="http://petross.illinois.edu/">Plants Engineered to Replace Oil in Sugarcane and Sorghum</a>, or PETROSS, in 2012. Since then, through genetic engineering we’ve <a href="http://petross.illinois.edu/news/scientists-engineer-sugarcane-to-produce-biodiesel-more-sugar-for-ethanol">increased production of oil and fatty acids</a> to achieve 12 percent oil in the leaves of sugarcane. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189221/original/file-20171006-25784-12ge1ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bottle of oil produced from PETROSS lipidcane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claire Benjamin/University of Illinois</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now we are working to achieve 20 percent oil – the theoretical limit, according to our computer models – and targeting this oil accumulation to the stem of the plant, where it is more accessible than in the leaves. Our preliminary research has shown that even as the engineered plants produce more oil, they <a href="http://petross.illinois.edu/news/scientists-engineer-sugarcane-to-produce-biodiesel-more-sugar-for-ethanol">continue to produce sugar</a>. We call these engineered plants lipidcane.</p>
<h2>Multiple products from lipidcane</h2>
<p>Lipidcane offers many advantages for farmers and the environment. We calculate that growing lipidcane containing 20 percent oil would be <a href="http://petross.illinois.edu/news/scientists-engineer-sugarcane-to-produce-biodiesel-more-sugar-for-ethanol">five times more profitable per acre than soybeans</a>, the main feedstock currently used to make biodiesel in the United States, and twice as profitable per acre as corn.</p>
<p>To be sustainable, bio-jet fuel must also be economical to process and have high production yields that minimize use of arable land. We estimate that compared to soybeans, lipidcane containing 5 percent oil could produce four times more jet fuel per acre of land. Lipidcane with 20 percent oil could produce more than 15 times more jet fuel per acre. </p>
<p>And lipidcane offers other energy benefits. The plant parts left over after juice extraction, known as bagasse, can be burned to produce steam and electricity. According to our analysis, this would generate more than enough electricity to power the biorefinery, so surplus power could be sold back to the grid, displacing electricity produced from fossil fuels – a practice already used in some plants in Brazil to produce ethanol from sugarcane.</p>
<h2>A potential US bioenergy crop</h2>
<p>Sugarcane thrives on marginal land that is not suited to many food crops. Currently it is grown mainly in Brazil, India and China. We are also <a href="http://petross.illinois.edu/news/chill-tolerant-hybrid-sugarcane-also-grows-at-lower-temperatures-team-finds">engineering lipidcane to be more cold-tolerant</a> so that it can be raised more widely, particularly in the southeastern United States on underutilized land. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189228/original/file-20171006-25784-h5m60n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of the growing region of cold-tolerant lipidcane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PETROSS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we devoted 23 million acres in the southeastern United States to lipidcane with 20 percent oil, we estimate that this crop could produce <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12478">65 percent of the U.S. jet fuel supply</a>. Presently, in current dollars, that fuel would cost airlines US$5.31 per gallon, which is less than bio-jet fuel produced from algae or other oil crops such as soybeans, canola or palm oil. </p>
<p>Lipidcane could also be grown in Brazil and other tropical areas. As we recently reported in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3410">Nature Climate Change</a>, significantly expanding sugarcane or lipidcane production in Brazil could reduce current global carbon dioxide emissions by <a href="http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/14792/expansion-of-sugarcane-ethanol-in-brazil-could-cut-ghg-emissions">up to 5.6 percent</a>. This could be accomplished without impinging on areas that the Brazilian government has designated as environmentally sensitive, such as rainforest. </p>
<h2>In pursuit of ‘energycane’</h2>
<p>Our lipidcane research also includes genetically engineering the plant to make it photosynthesize more efficiently, which translates into more growth. In a 2016 article in Science, one of us (Stephen Long) and colleagues at other institutions demonstrated that improving the efficiency of photosynthesis in tobacco increased its growth by <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aai8878">20 percent</a>. Currently, preliminary research and side-by-side field trials suggest that we have improved the photosynthetic efficiency of sugarcane by 20 percent, and by nearly 70 percent in cool conditions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=669&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/189232/original/file-20171006-973-s6selz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=840&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Normal sugarcane (left) growing beside engineered PETROSS sugarcane, which is visibly taller and bushier, in field trials at the University of Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fredy Altpeter/University of Florida</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now our team is beginning work to engineer a higher-yielding variety of sugarcane that we call “energycane” to achieve more oil production per acre. We have more ground to cover before it can be commercialized, but developing a viable plant with enough oil to economically produce biodiesel and bio-jet fuel is a major first step. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that the study by Stephen Long and others published in Science in 2016 involved improving the efficiency of photosynthesis in tobacco plants.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Kumar's position is partly supported by ARPA-E funding for the work described in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen P. Long receives funding from the Department of Energy, Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, and the UK Department for International Development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vijay Singh receives funding from USDA, DOE, Industrial Biotech Companies</span></em></p>Scientists have engineered sugarcane to increase its oil content and are developing renewable jet aircraft fuel from the oil. The engineered sugarcane could become a valuable energy crop.Deepak Kumar, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignStephen P. Long, Professor of Crop Sciences and Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignVijay Singh, Professor of Agricultural and Biological Engineering and Director of Integrated Bioprocessing Research Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/820952017-08-08T08:56:54Z2017-08-08T08:56:54ZAlgal biofuel production is neither environmentally nor commercially sustainable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/181202/original/file-20170807-16718-1ucijuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/3d-rendering-green-barrels-biofuels-lettering-619299101?src=LAohmhLnFEBRUJ26phaLcA-1-0">Aleksandr Petrunovskyi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Modern <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-biofuels-12907">biofuels</a> have been touted as a greener alternative to petrol and diesel <a href="http://biofuel.org.uk/history-of-biofuels.html">since the early 1900s</a>. It seems like a good idea on paper, and they do work – but their use and production doesn’t come without problems. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://biofuel.org.uk/first-generation-biofuels.html">first generation of biofuels</a> – mainly ethanol made from plant crops – and <a href="http://biofuel.org.uk/second-generation-biofuels.html">second generation</a>, derived from plant and animal waste streams, both had environmentalists and others concerned about the competition for land and nutrients between biofuels production and food production.</p>
<p>It was with a lot of hope, and hype, that production of the third generation of biofuels was started. Unlike their predecessors, these <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-algal-biofuels-12560">biofuels are derived from algae</a>, and so in theory the food vs fuel dilemma of crop-based biofuels would be solved. </p>
<p>Fossil fuel oil and gas originated from ancient algae in large measure, so the concept here is to replicate the essence of the creation of fossil fuels, albeit accelerated and optimised with modern chemical engineering. It was claimed that using algae would be much more efficient than creating biofuels from terrestrial plants and that the technology would make use of poor quality land not able to grow other crops.</p>
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<p>Millions of dollars, euros and other currencies have been spent trying to get the algal marvel to work. Much of the money has been directed at refining the engineering process, electrically lighting the crop – which grows in a liquid suspension – harvesting and draining it. The solution to optimisation was seen as primarily technological non-biological, though species selection and growth conditions were also acknowledged as important factors.</p>
<h2>Damp squib</h2>
<p>However, it turns out that the hype has been misplaced. <a href="https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10811-017-1214-3?author_access_token=sWz5jqN7mgG1iiHHLo66wve4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY5ZUEP6im8fLGmlyvrlZUutCw3u_kCzPXLtmZCjP8-59jx5QegHR_GN6Vh0JS3B0tHtq0KSYpZHGPT_CtbPRW1GOz4DYowT-9zYpBnsL7MYaQ%3D%3D">Our research</a> has found that the production of algal biofuels is neither commercially nor environmentally sustainable. The attainable production levels are a fraction of those that were claimed. The amount of biofuel produced from prolonged culture of algae in pilot-scale systems is actually not too dissimilar from those of terrestrial plants: around 5,000 to 10,000 litres per hectare per year. </p>
<p>In fact, the rate of production from algae growing in the vast ponds required for truly massive production is, for a given area of land, similar to that seen in the most productive areas of the ocean. It amounts to around 4g of carbon from CO₂ fixed into biomass per square metre every day.</p>
<p>So what’s the problem? Why aren’t algal biofuels as good as had been hoped? Quite simply, it’s biology.</p>
<p>The dream has been broken not by failings in engineering, but by the inefficiency of biochemistry. Simulations of microalgal biofuel production show that to approach the 10% of EU transport fuels expected <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels">to be supplied by biofuels</a>, ponds three times the area of Belgium would be needed. And for the algae in these ponds to produce biofuel, it would require fertiliser equivalent to 50% of the current total annual EU crop plant needs. Ironically, such ponds would also need to be located near heavy industry which produces CO₂ to provide the level required by the microalgae for photosynthesis.</p>
<h2>Problems of scale</h2>
<p>The problem with third-generation biofuels has always been scaling up the production rates measured in small culture flasks to growth in thousands of cubic metres in size. In the larger cultures, the biomass density of the algae – needed to make the culture and harvesting processes economical – defeats desired growth rates because the organisms shade light from each other. This means that they do not get the sunlight needed to photosynthesise and produce the carbon-rich compounds needed for to make the biofuel fast enough.</p>
<p>There have also been misunderstandings of how the algae react to their environment. Importantly, those vital carbon-rich compounds only really accumulate in cells that are nitrogen-limited and so are growing slowly. Early production estimates assumed high carbon-rich content in fast-growing cells but this has not proved to be the case. </p>
<p>Could we not genetically modify a solution to the inherent biological inefficiency? Perhaps, but should we really tamper with factors that are so fundamental to life on Earth and risk generating <a href="http://rsfs.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/1/20120037">unstoppable harmful algal species</a> that could destroy fisheries and damage drinking water supplies? Even if we did create the perfect algae for biofuels production, the need for all that fertiliser and CO₂ would remain.</p>
<p>Ultimately the public have paid for this failed vision – but their money has not been wasted. If there’s one thing that humans need more than fuel it is food – and this work can help us understand how to better grow microalgae to support the farming of fish and shellfish, and produce dietary supplements, like Omega-3. Mass microalgal production could also create food containing omega fatty acids to farmed fish, for example, meaning that we would no longer need to fish in rivers and oceans to make fishmeal for them.</p>
<p>The future for mass microalgal cultivation is still literally and metaphorically green, it just does not rest with biofuels production.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Flynn received funding from Natural Environment Research Council, UK; INTERREG NWE; Carbon Trust UK.
</span></em></p>The climate change-mitigating dream turns out to be a green damp squib.Kevin Flynn, Chair professor, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/817652017-07-28T16:04:16Z2017-07-28T16:04:16ZDoes the 2040 ban on new petrol and diesel cars mean the death of biofuels?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180206/original/file-20170728-30401-1q8xawy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flower power. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-pipe-exhaust-yellow-rape-conceptual-467243405?src=GdIr8LIjE-1mEQaH-RKqRg-2-92">kelifamily</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One question that arises from <a href="https://theconversation.com/petrol-car-ban-wont-work-without-a-huge-investment-in-electric-infrastructure-81706">the announcement</a> by the UK government that new diesel and petrol cars will be banned by 2040 is what it means for biofuels. If cars running on fossil fuels will be substituted by electric cars, it could imply that all liquid transport fuels will be eliminated. </p>
<p>Around 5% of the volume of the average British tank of petrol or diesel <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/biofuel-statistics-year-8-2015-to-2016-report-1">comes from</a> biofuels at present. It is produced from various sources, including corn, wheat, sugar beet and waste ranging from rotten vegetables to used cooking oil. </p>
<p><strong>Biofuels in the UK by feedstock type</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/180199/original/file-20170728-17478-o1x7d7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/biofuels">RAENG report</a></span>
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<p>The large-scale use of biofuels dates back to the 1970s, when they were <a href="https://www.oecd.org/sti/biotech/Giacomazzi.pdf">first introduced</a> in Brazil through government incentives to build vehicles that could run on 100% ethanol produced mainly from sugar cane. Brazil remains a leader in biofuels, despite <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33114119">ups and downs</a> over the years. More than a quarter of petrol content must comprise ethanol – and most vehicles can run 100% ethanol if they choose to. </p>
<p>Elsewhere biofuels have enjoyed varying fortunes. They became a popular possible alternative in the 1990s as a consequence of the rise in the oil price. More recently, more than 60 countries across the world <a href="http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2016/01/03/biofuels-mandates-around-the-world-2016/">require</a> some blend of biofuels at the fuel pumps as part of their commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and have also launched biofuel production programmes.</p>
<p>Yet progress <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/14/biofuels-need-to-be-improved-for-battle-against-climate-change">has become</a> very slow in many countries. Among the reasons are the <a href="http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart">period</a> of low oil prices and the fact that it uses much more farmland to increase biofuel proportions in fuel tanks. </p>
<h2>Biofuels RIP?</h2>
<p>So will anyone bother to keep striving towards sustainable liquid fuels now that the end of petrol/diesel vehicles appears in sight? The answer has to be yes, for a couple of important reasons. </p>
<p>The first is hybrid vehicles, which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/07/uk-demand-soars-for-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles">have been</a> far more successful than purely electric ones to date. These engines that run on a combination of liquid fuels and recharged batteries will play a major part in the transition towards complete electrification. If the UK is to move towards a complete ban on fossil fuels in transport, new hybrids are likely to increasingly depend on biofuels. </p>
<p>The second point is that the transport system is about far more than roads. Aviation, shipping and haulage are all significant and they have a much more limited scope for electrification. They will continue to rely heavily on liquid fuels – to which end the US navy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/21/us-navy-launches-first-biofuel-powered-aircraft-carriers">recently launched</a> its first biofuel-powered aircraft carrier, for example. </p>
<p>So if we’re still going to need biofuels, how do we make the most of them? I was a member of a working group of the Royal Academy of Engineering that recently produced <a href="http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/biofuels">a report</a> about the sector commissioned by the UK’s departments for transport and energy. </p>
<p>The report, which involved a meta-study of a number of research papers about the sector, said biofuels would undoubtedly play an important role in meeting the UK`s commitments towards climate change. It called for a combination of incentives and careful regulation to avoid risks and unintended consequences, such as crops being diverted from food production. </p>
<p>It proposed incentives to encourage so-called second-generation biofuels – those which predominantly come from waste and have a far better emissions profile than biofuels from dedicated crops such as soya or corn. It proposed to incentivise growing biofuel crops on land that was unsuitable for food production, while generally capping crop-based biofuels to help prevent them from taking up space that could be for food crops. It also proposed that the minimum blend level in the UK be increased from its current 4.75% (more work is required to determine what might be realistic).</p>
<p>If the government approached biofuels in this way, there could be indirect benefits – giving farmers an extra incentive to plant more crops, for example, as well as improving crop yields and making farming processes more efficient. The amount of land dedicated to farming could also rise as a result. </p>
<p>My message is therefore that we will need biofuels for the foreseeable future despite the UK government’s 2040 ban. By prioritising the right kinds of biofuels through subsidies and caps, we can minimise their drawbacks and maximise their advantages over petroleum fuels. The 2040 ban, far from meaning the end of liquid biofuels, should be seen as an important opportunity for the sector.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81765/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raffaella Ocone was the co-author of a recent UK-government-funded report into the biofuels industry by the Royal Academy of Engineering. </span></em></p>The great dream of cars running on sustainable petrol has not bitten the dust. Here’s why.Raffaella Ocone, Chair of Chemical Engineering, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.