tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/dairy-sector-27753/articlesDairy sector – The Conversation2022-08-29T05:16:29Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890462022-08-29T05:16:29Z2022-08-29T05:16:29ZNot like udder milk: ‘synthetic’ dairy milk made without cows may be coming to a supermarket near you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481469/original/file-20220829-65743-2q6nxr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C0%2C3964%2C2994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global dairy industry is changing. Among the disruptions is competition from food alternatives not produced using animals – including potential challenges posed by synthetic milk.</p>
<p>Synthetic milk does not require cows or other animals. It can have the same biochemical make up as animal milk, but is grown using an emerging biotechnology technique know as “<a href="https://ecos.csiro.au/whats-brewing-precision-fermentation/">precision fermentation</a>” that produces biomass cultured from cells.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fao.org/3/CA2929EN/ca2929en.pdf">More than 80%</a> of the world’s population regularly consume dairy products. There have been increasing calls to move beyond animal-based food systems to more sustainable forms of food production.</p>
<p>Synthetic milks offer dairy milk without concerns such as <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/carbon-farming-reducing-methane-emissions-cattle-using-feed-additives">methane emissions</a> or <a href="https://www.rspca.org.au/take-action/dairy-cattle-and-bobby-calves">animal welfare</a>. But it must overcome many challenges and pitfalls to become a fair, sustainable and viable alternative to animal-based milk.</p>
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<img alt="dairy cows on green grass" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481472/original/file-20220829-65819-723k9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Synthetic milks offer dairy milk produced without animals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Not a sci-fi fantasy</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10460-022-10338-x">recent research</a> examined megatrends in the global dairy sector. Plant-based milks and, potentially, synthetic milks, emerged as a key disruption.</p>
<p>Unlike synthetic meat – which can struggle to match the complexity and texture of animal meat – synthetic milk is <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/the-start-up-that-makes-milk-without-using-any-cows-20210725-p58cq6">touted</a> as having the same taste, look and feel as normal dairy milk. </p>
<p>Synthetic milk is not a sci-fi fantasy; it already exists. In the US, for example, the <a href="https://perfectday.com/animal-free-milk-protein/">Perfect Day</a> company supplies animal-free protein made from microflora, which is then <a href="https://perfectday.com/made-with-perfect-day/">used to make</a> ice cream, protein powder and milk.</p>
<p>In Australia, start-up company Eden Brew has been developing synthetic milk at Werribee in Victoria. The company is <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/the-start-up-that-makes-milk-without-using-any-cows-20210725-p58cq6">targeting</a> consumers increasingly concerned about climate change and, in particular, the contribution of methane from dairy cows.</p>
<p>CSIRO reportedly developed the technology behind the Eden Brew product. The process starts with yeast and uses “precision fermentation” to produce the same proteins found in cow milk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/production/food/eden-brew">CSIRO says</a> these proteins give milk many of its key properties and contribute to its creamy texture and frothing ability. Minerals, sugars, fats and flavours are added to the protein base to create the final product.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-milk-is-best-for-the-environment-we-compared-dairy-nut-soy-hemp-and-grain-milks-147660">Which 'milk' is best for the environment? We compared dairy, nut, soy, hemp and grain milks</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="packets of whey protein and chocolate brownie mix" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481473/original/file-20220829-40207-chcr43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">US food-tech company Perfect Day makes ice cream and other ‘dairy’ products without using animals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Perfect Day</span></span>
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<h2>Towards a new food system?</h2>
<p>Also in Australia, the All G Foods company this month <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/synthetic-milk-start-up-all-g-foods-banks-25m-from-uk-s-argonomics-20220804-p5b79m">raised A$25 million</a> to accelerate production of its synthetic milk. Within seven years, the company wants its synthetic milk to be cheaper than cow milk. </p>
<p>If the synthetic milk industry can achieve this cost aim across the board, the potential to disrupt the dairy industry is high. It could steer humanity further away from traditional animal agriculture towards radically different food systems.</p>
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<img alt="a bottle of 'zero cow' milk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481475/original/file-20220829-48396-j0oya3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">All G foods wants its synthetic milk to be cheaper than cow-based milk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">All G Foods</span></span>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture">2019 report</a> into the future of dairy found that by 2030, the US precision fermentation industry will create at least 700,000 jobs.</p>
<p>And if synthetic milk can replace dairy as an ingredient in the industrial food processing sector, this could present significant challenges for companies that produce milk powder for the ingredient market.</p>
<p>Some traditional dairy companies are jumping on the bandwagon. For example, Australian dairy co-operative Norco is backing the Eden Brew project, and New Zealand dairy cooperative Fonterra last week <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-ramps-up-opportunities-in-complementary-nutrition-partnership.html">annouced</a> a joint venture to develop and commercialise “fermentation-derived proteins with dairy-like properties”.</p>
<h2>Synthetic milk: the whey forward?</h2>
<p>The synthetic milk industry must grow exponentially before it becomes a sizeable threat to animal-based dairy milk. This <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/synthetic-milk-start-up-all-g-foods-banks-25m-from-uk-s-argonomics-20220804-p5b79m">will require</a> a lot of capital and investment in research and development, as well as new manufacturing infrastructure such as fermentation tanks and bioreactors. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/world-dairy-projections-milk-butter-and-cheese_0ca74b06-en">Production</a> of conventional animal-milk in the Global South now outstrips that of the Global North, largely due to rapid growth across Asia. Certainly, the traditional dairy industry is not going away any time soon. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-milk-the-whole-milk-and-nothing-but-the-milk-the-story-behind-our-dairy-woes-124290">The milk, the whole milk and nothing but the milk: the story behind our dairy woes</a>
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<img alt="Woman looks at milk in supermarket in Vietnam" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481480/original/file-20220829-43735-15g7ie.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Demand for animal milk in Asia has grown rapidly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RICHARD VOGEL/AP</span></span>
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<p>And synthetic milk is not a panacea. While the technology has huge potential for environmental and animal welfare gains, it comes with challenges and potential downsides.</p>
<p>For example, alternative proteins do not necessarily challenge the corporatisation or homogenisation of conventional industrial agriculture. This means big synthetic milk producers might push out low-tech or small-scale dairy – and alternative dairy – systems.</p>
<p>What’s more, synthetic milk could further displace many people from the global dairy sector. If traditional dairy co-ops in Australia and New Zealand are moving into synthetic milk, for example, where does this leave dairy farmers?</p>
<p>As synthetic milk gains ground in coming years, we must guard against replicating existing inequities in the current food system. </p>
<p>And the traditional dairy sector must recognise it’s on the cusp of pivotal change. In the face of multiple threats, it should maximise the social benefits of both animal-based dairy and minimise its contribution to climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Milena Bojovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Synthetic milk offers dairy milk without the concerns such as methane emissions or animal welfare. But is it the whey forward?Milena Bojovic, PhD Candidate, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1738982022-01-12T16:13:38Z2022-01-12T16:13:38ZMilk without the cow: Cellular agriculture could be the future of farming, but dairy farmers need help<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440172/original/file-20220111-19-oqtgov.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C1249%2C935&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dairy cows in the Fraser Valley, B.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.evanbowness.ca/cell-ag">(Evan Bowness)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/milk-without-the-cow--cellular-agriculture-could-be-the-future-of-farming--but-dairy-farmers-need-help" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>A new wave of cow-less dairy is hitting the market. In the United States, <a href="https://perfectday.com/">Perfect Day</a> is using genetically modified fungi to produce milk protein for ice cream at a commercial scale. And pre-commercial companies, like <a href="https://turtletree.com">TurtleTree</a> and <a href="https://www.bettermilknow.com">Better Milk</a>, are engineering mammary cells to produce human and cow milk in laboratories, although these remain in the early stages of development.</p>
<p>It might be some time before mammal-less dairy arrives in Canadian grocery stores. But these emerging technologies are part of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111066">fourth agricultural revolution</a> that aims to improve food security, sustainability and agricultural working conditions. With these promises for wins on the horizon, should the diary sector be worried?</p>
<p>As researchers from the Food and Agriculture Institute at the University of the Fraser Valley, in British Columbia, we study food systems in transition. The Fraser Valley is home to 60 per cent of B.C.’s dairy farms, so we’re especially interested in the impacts cellular agriculture might have on the dairy system.</p>
<h2>Animal agriculture’s challenges</h2>
<p>Animal agriculture plays a big role in the global food system. The <a href="https://www.fao.org/animal-production/en/">Food and Agriculture Organization states</a> that animal agriculture provides roughly a third of global food protein, supports the livelihoods of over a billion people and contributes to soil fertility.</p>
<p>But animal agriculture is facing increased scrutiny, especially around environmental impacts and animal welfare issues. It is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, upwards of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116276">16.5 per cent of global emissions</a>, by some estimates.</p>
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<img alt="Students sit near a hand sanitizer dispenser at a university." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=747&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440150/original/file-20220110-19-16z8l7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=939&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In 2009, the H1N1 virus, commonly called swine flu, triggered a pandemic and caused widespread illness around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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<p>Animal agriculture is also vulnerable to extreme environmental conditions and climate change. Recent flooding in B.C. <a href="https://fvcurrent.com/article/dead-sumas-prairie-flood/">killed well over half a million farm animals</a> and threatened to contaminate the sensitive freshwater ecosystems of the Fraser Valley with <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/11/19/latest-news/after-floods-oil-slicks-human-and-animal-waste">stored manure and agricultural chemicals</a>. And it’s a known <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/unite-human-animal-and-environmental-health-prevent-next-pandemic-un">risk factor for zoonotic diseases and pandemics</a>, such <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.117-a394">as H1N1 or the swine flu</a>.</p>
<p>One way to reduce the risks introduced by animal agriculture is to remove — or nearly remove — livestock from the food production equation. <a href="https://new-harvest.org/what-is-cellular-agriculture/">Cellular agriculture</a> uses cell cultures to produce animal products without raising livestock, hunting or fishing. While still in its early phases, this technology could help meet growing demand for animal protein, reduce environmental impacts and address animal welfare concerns.</p>
<h2>How does cellular agriculture work?</h2>
<p>Cellular agriculture makes biologically equivalent or near-equivalent foods to those produced with animals. This is different from plant-based meat and dairy alternatives, such as Beyond Burgers and oat milk, which use plant ingredients that approximate their non-vegetarian counterparts. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plant-based-doesnt-always-mean-healthy-173303">Plant-based doesn’t always mean healthy</a>
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<p>One approach is to use advanced fermentation, where yeasts, fungi and bacteria are genetically modified to produce proteins. The approach is similar to brewing beer, but with highly specialized micro-organisms that follow instructions that have been added to their genetic code.</p>
<p>You may already be eating products created using this technology. Thirty years ago, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the use of a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/03/24/fda-approves-bioengineered-cheese-enzyme/c4292eeb-1c74-45d2-94c3-b0eb09e4866c/">bioengineered form of rennet enzymes</a>, which is widely used in cheese making and replaces the original enzymes which were harvested from calf stomachs. </p>
<p>Today, vats of micro-organisms, genetically modified to carry the appropriate calf gene, supply rennet for about 70 per cent of cheese made in the U.S. It’s functionally identical to the original cheese-making enzymes, but it’s easier, less costly to produce and doesn’t rely on mammals.</p>
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<img alt="A worker walks between large stainless steel tanks in an industrial food site." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440144/original/file-20220110-27-1uz7t8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Food scientists can use microorganisms to grow food ingredients in large vats, eliminating the need for livestock.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Another approach, called tissue engineering, uses cells collected from an animal to grow meat, fish or even leather in a controlled environment. The tissues grow, but in a nutrient-rich broth called growth media in bioreactor tanks.</p>
<p>Examples include GOOD Meat’s cellular chicken nuggets, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-021-00855-1">first commercially available cellular meat product</a>, and <a href="https://www.wildtypefoods.com/">WildType</a>’s cellular salmon, which is being grown in stainless steel tanks in San Francisco. </p>
<h2>What is at stake for dairy farmers?</h2>
<p>Dairy is an important food commodity in Canada. Over 18,000 farm operators are employed at the roughly 10,000 dairy farms across the country, which together produced 9.5 billion litres of milk and <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/canadas-agriculture-sectors/animal-industry/canadian-dairy-information-centre/canadas-dairy-industry-glance">earned farms over $7 billion in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>To meet consumer demand and guarantee a fair price to the farmers, the Canadian supply management system controls dairy production volumes and the number of producers at the provincial level using a quota system. Farmers essentially buy the right to sell dairy products. Dairy farms are capital intensive and farmers often carry large debt loads, making it a difficult industry to enter. </p>
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<img alt="Dairy cows stay dry inside a barn at night, with flood waters outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440149/original/file-20220110-13-1lhn3fk.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Flood waters rise outside a dairy barn near Agassiz, B.C., in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
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<p>Livestock farmers in B.C. had an exceptionally challenging 2021. After a summer of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-livestock-owners-scramble-to-move-cattle-horses-caught-in-wildfire-risk-1.6107262">encroaching forest fires</a> and a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-livestock-farmers-heat-wave-1.6130043">record-breaking heat dome</a>, the year ended with <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8483965/bc-flooded-farms-weather/">catastrophic floods followed by extreme cold</a>. Fraser Valley farmers were forced to dump 7.5 million litres of raw milk in November when shipping routes were destroyed by flooding, which also killed 428 dairy cows. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-farmers-are-dumping-milk-down-the-drain-and-letting-produce-rot-in-fields-136567">Across the country, dairy farmers also dumped milk</a> early in the pandemic — more than <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8386413/canada-milk-price-increase-dairy-farmers-cdc/">30 million litres</a> in the year ending July 31, 2020, according to one analysis — when demand plummeted due to restaurant closures and other system shocks. </p>
<h2>Planning a just transition</h2>
<p>We see animal-free dairy as possibly having some environmental and food security benefits, but with some trade-offs. </p>
<p>If cellular agriculture competes with conventional dairy in Canada, what would the impact be on dairy farmers? What would happen to the cows? To the farms? To the supply management system in general? </p>
<p>Addressing these questions is critical for developing policy that enables transitions to food systems with lower environmental and carbon footprints while ensuring harms and benefits are distributed equitably — what’s known as the j<a href="https://www.rncanengagenrcan.ca/en/collections/just-transition">ust transition</a>. </p>
<p>Much of our understanding of these just transitions comes from the energy sector, where coal mines have closed and oil production is declining as renewable energy becomes more available and less expensive, changing economies and forcing fossil fuel workers to find other work. </p>
<p>Canada recently developed a just transition <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/task-force-just-transition.html">task force</a> to look for ways to reduce the livelihood disruptions that come with phasing out coal. The federal government has also recently <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2021/07/canada-launches-just-transition-engagement.html">initiated consultations</a> for just transition legislation that would direct resources to communities negatively impacted by the transition towards a low-carbon future.</p>
<p>Just transition policies for cellular agriculture could encourage farmers to transition into animal-free dairy production through infrastructure transition grants, support with licensing new technologies, biodiversity conservation and carbon credits for <a href="https://ipbes.net/glossary/land-sparing">land sparing</a>, sanctuary planning for current dairy farms and land back incentives to provide pathways for agriculture towards decolonization. </p>
<p>It’s unclear how soon Canadian dairy farmers will face competition from cellular agriculture, although some have suggested <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ind.2021.29240.ctu">U.S. beef and dairy sector revenues will decline nearly 90 per cent by 2035</a>. </p>
<p>Is it reasonable to expect Canadian dairy farmers will make way for cellular dairy? Or is up to policy-makers, industry leaders and food systems organizers to ensure this transition leads to a food system that is more sustainable, but also just?</p>
<p><em>Yadira Tejeda Saldana, research collaborations director at <a href="https://new-harvest.org/">New Harvest</a>, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evan Bowness receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Newell receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah-Louise Ruder receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada and Future Skills Centre Canada.</span></em></p>Technological changes on the horizon will likely disrupt the dairy industry as we know it — plans to mitigate the risks this transition poses to farmer livelihoods and animal welfare should start now.Evan Bowness, Postdoctoral Researcher, Food and Agriculture Institute, University of The Fraser ValleyRobert Newell, Associate Director, Food and Agriculture Institute, University of The Fraser ValleySarah-Louise Ruder, PhD Candidate at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1420642020-08-05T14:38:46Z2020-08-05T14:38:46ZCOVID-19 has hit SMEs in South Africa’s food sector hard. What can be done to help them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349660/original/file-20200727-37-2ojaec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">COVID-19 has further emphasised the need for a more diverse food system, in which SMEs play a key role</span> </figcaption></figure><p>COVID-19 has prompted widespread discussion of the resilience of food systems and how efficiency and competitiveness have been previously understood. Recent decades have seen the growth of increasingly complex food value chains. These are underpinned by just-in-time delivery systems, a growing share of food products sold through supermarkets, and increasing concentration of ownership among powerful, large food manufacturers. </p>
<p>The pandemic has further emphasised the need for a more diverse and inclusive food system, in which small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play a key role. </p>
<p>As part of a <a href="https://iiap.info/">larger project</a> investigating challenges faced by agro-processing SMEs, we conducted qualitative telephone interviews with 16 SME maize milling and dairy firms during lockdown to gauge the effects of the pandemic.</p>
<p>As essential businesses, food manufacturers continued to operate through lockdown, and it might be assumed COVID-19’s impacts on this industry were minimal. This was not the case. While aggregate production levels were maintained – super maize meal output in April was 25% higher than the same month last year – and consumer prices remained relatively stable, SMEs in these industries faced multiple disruptions throughout their supply chains.</p>
<p>There are still steps that can be taken to shield these enterprises from the worst effects of the pandemic. This should go beyond financial aid and improved access to credit to include, for example, supporting them in diversifying their routes to markets. Such support is critical because the exit of SMEs will exacerbate high levels of concentration and reduce diversity, with consequences for social inclusion and food system resilience. The implications for South Africa’s food system would be far reaching.</p>
<h2>Precarious</h2>
<p>Many agro-processing SMEs were precarious before COVID-19 struck. Power in the South African food system lies with big businesses. In 2017, the 10 largest enterprises <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/Report-30-02-03/Report-30-02-032017.pdf">accounted for 72% of revenue</a> in the manufacture of dairy products. In milling, the 10 largest accounted for 76%. </p>
<p>SMEs still play a critical role supplying localised and under-served markets, providing rural employment. They are also important for linkages with other small businesses. Typically they avoid doing business with the big supermarkets due to onerous conditions. Instead they target independent wholesalers and retailers, buyer groups and informal “spaza” shops. They also sell directly to local communities, school feeding schemes and catering. </p>
<p>COVID-19 has reduced SME access to these routes and therefore increased their vulnerability.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>During lockdown, supermarkets’ sophisticated distribution systems enabled seamless operations. Panic-buying also diverted sales towards large retailers with higher stock levels. However, our qualitative research interviews found that the retailers relied on by most SMEs were less well-resourced, and faced a range of logistical and operational setbacks, with financial strains resulting in increased defaults on payments to suppliers.</p>
<p>The SMEs reliant on non-retail sales channels were the worst affected. The cessation of school feeding schemes and closure of hospitality and catering had devastating effects on suppliers. All dairy processing SMEs interviewed suffered major sales reductions, of between 20% and 66%. Some millers reported lower revenue, with some closing down entirely. </p>
<p>Switching to supplying mainstream supermarkets was not a feasible alternative. It would have pitted SMEs against large companies. They would also have had to meet higher standards for product quality, packaging, hygiene and traceability. SMEs would have had to accept the mainstream supermarkets’ longer repayment periods, and often onerous rebate and returns policies. Government’s emergency food parcel schemes meanwhile had been supplied by large firms, reflecting longer-standing challenges for SMEs with public procurement.</p>
<p>Perishability of raw materials and close links to farming were a further complicating feature. This was particularly common in the dairy sector in instances where SME processors were backwardly integrated into milk producers. Some started selling surplus raw milk to rivals or plan to retire herds because their normal routes to market were cut. </p>
<p>Milling SMEs faced severe difficulties sourcing raw material. They were also exposed to maize price volatility and the adverse rand-dollar exchange rate movement, given their lesser ability to hedge. Interviewees from both dairy and milling companies also described severe difficulties securing machinery parts, repairs and maintenance services. Compliance with hygiene regulations was a major cost for SMEs in ordinary circumstances. This dramatically escalated with the need to source personal protective equipment and sanitisers at elevated prices.</p>
<h2>The consequences</h2>
<p>Most firms in our sample said they were forced to lay off workers, cut their pay or work reduced hours. Investments that had been planned to improve businesses were halted. </p>
<p>Sadly, government’s business support measures provided insufficient remedy. The top-down approach to support provision, with a fragmented array of schemes, and complex application processes and qualifying criteria, proved confusing or too costly even to firms in need. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ufiling.co.za/uif/">Unemployment Insurance Fund</a> provided a lifeline. Other measures, however, such as the <a href="https://www.sars.gov.za/ClientSegments/Businesses/SmallBusinesses/Pages/default.aspx">tax relief</a>, <a href="http://www.dsbd.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-SMME-INTERVENTION-MEASURES.jpg">Department of Small Business Development funds</a> and commercial bank support through the <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/banking/395092/south-africas-banks-have-coronavirus-finance-relief-options-but-dont-expect-a-debt-write-off/">loan guarantee scheme</a>, were less accessible. </p>
<p>Notably, firms in difficulty were typically reluctant to take on commercial debt. They argued that despite the loan guarantee scheme, interest rates are prohibitively high. One welcome development in relation to this was the announcement in June’s <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2020S/speech/speech.pdf">Supplementary Budget</a> of the relaxation of terms and conditions and extension of repayment holidays.</p>
<p>Even without a repeat lockdown, without greater support, many SMEs will fail or be severely weakened in this period of economic disruption. Adaptation is going to require significant and costly changes to business models. </p>
<h2>What could help?</h2>
<p>We see three key actions that could help. </p>
<p>First, there should be commitments by the major retailers to offer SMEs preferential shelf space and to introduce local procurement policies at preferential terms. </p>
<p>Second, alternative routes to market need to be strengthened. This can involve improving infrastructure and implementing regulations that enable SMEs to operate in the peri and non-urban areas. Public procurement can also provide SMEs with consistent revenue streams but needs to be reconfigured to accommodate SMEs’ needs. Delays by the state in paying SMEs and often complex and dysfunctional tendering processes remain a big problem. The expansion of inclusive e-commerce platforms for retail and digital management of food logistics and sales can help SMEs access multiple new routes to market. But this requires state support to build firms’ digital capabilities. It also requires policies and regulations to create a competitive digital space and curb the market power of dominant platforms.</p>
<p>Thirdly and finally, there should be improved short-term emergency support, with streamlined application processes and broadened access conditions. Commercial bank loans are inappropriate for SMEs in severe difficulties, and grant finance should be more easily available. Government should also provide assistance with personal protective equipment and sanitisers, in addition to training and advice on how to adapt to new requirements. </p>
<p>In the longer term, South Africa needs to consider how markets may undermine inclusive food systems through ‘<a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/competition-overdose-maurice-e-stuckeariel-ezrachi">toxic competition</a>’. The country needs to rethink ‘market shaping’ policies and value chain governance to emphasise the critical role of the state and collective action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Bowman receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (UKRI) (ES/S0001352/1). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reena das Nair is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED). CCRED receives project-based funding from multiple sources including the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, the United Nations World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) and the Economic and Social Research Council (UKRI) (ES/S0001352/1).</span></em></p>South Africa’s food system is dominated by big firms, leaving small businesses to supply localised and under-served markets, and provide rural employment. It needs to be inclusive and diverse.Andrew Bowman, Lecturer in Africa and International Development, The University of EdinburghReena das Nair, Senior Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1425032020-07-23T14:44:44Z2020-07-23T14:44:44ZHow smart investments in technology can beef up Africa’s economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347336/original/file-20200714-30-10dmxxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ugandan farmer with adviser looking at milk records for a dairy cow. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Farm Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is no shortage of technological innovations designed to boost animal agriculture in Africa. These range from <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/57322">GPS tracking systems</a> which identify and trace pastoralists’ herds to livestock vaccine <a href="https://www.cowtribe.com/">SMS services</a> that alert farmers to disease outbreaks.</p>
<p>But to unlock the economic potential of the sector as <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3706e.pdf">demand for meat and milk</a> swells threefold towards 2050, countries must invest in the critical areas that will improve quality across the whole value chain. That is increasing productivity and quality from the breeding of the animal throughout the production process to the end product. This includes safe storage, handling and sale.</p>
<p>My native Uganda offers some useful lessons from its use of smart investments in technology and farmer organisation. These have made it the only East African country that is <a href="http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/71178513/mwebaze_and_kjaer_article.pdf">self-sufficient in milk</a>.</p>
<p>In recent years, some private sector players in Uganda have invested in testing systems to detect aflatoxin in animal feeds. The goal is to prevent milk and meat contamination. Others have developed refrigeration units that are powered with <a href="https://energypedia.info/wiki/Biogas-Powered_Evaporative_Cooling_for_Uganda%E2%80%99s_Dairy_Industry">biogas</a> from manure. Both are among the innovations that improve the quality of the final product.</p>
<p>As highlighted by a <a href="https://www.mamopanel.org/resources/reports-and-briefings/meat-milk-more-policy-innovations-shepherd-inclusi/">new report</a> from the Malabo Montpellier Panel on which I sit, the same can be achieved elsewhere. It can also benefit other livestock commodities, to give Africa food sovereignty across animal-sourced foods and greater access to international markets.</p>
<p>The report makes 11 recommendations for Africa’s livestock sector. These range from technological innovations and supportive policies to addressing trade barriers and challenges specific to each commodity.</p>
<h2>Priority areas</h2>
<p>African nations must be strategic in prioritising the infrastructure that will make the most difference to quality and productivity. The first priority is to increase consumer awareness around food safety, nutrition and sustainability to kickstart demand for better quality products.</p>
<p>Partly as a response to European consumer expectations around quality and safety, for example, Morocco developed a new system for <a href="http://www.onssa.gov.ma/fr/sante-animale/identification-animale">animal identification and traceability</a> in 2015.</p>
<p>Livestock can be identified using electronic tags that communicate with the national database via mobile phone networks. This increases transparency and traceability. It also promotes Moroccan animal products on international markets such as the European Union. </p>
<p>The second priority is then to direct technology towards opportunities to open up market access.</p>
<p>To unlock trade means investing in improved animal health, processing operations, storage and distribution. Meeting regional and international standards for food safety and quality is a vital goal. Africa currently contributes 2.8% of the global meat market, which translates to 14 million tons. The continent produces just over 10% of the world’s milk.</p>
<p>There are a number of barriers to increasing this production and gaining greater market share. They include limited availability of quality animal feed, access to affordable energy needed in producing and processing livestock, and limited infrastructure, particularly in the last mile.</p>
<p>With meat and milk being perishable goods, innovation in the cold chain and sustainable energy supplies will help strengthen the sector.</p>
<p>For example, an East African <a href="https://www.heifer.org/our-work/flagship-projects/east-africa-dairy-development-project.html">initiative</a> which centralised milk quality testing and storage in chillers prior to sale increased yields sixfold within five years. </p>
<p>The volume of milk supplied to the 30km catchment area rose to three million litres a month. This increased income per smallholder household by more than 160% in Uganda, 120% in Kenya, and almost 65% in Rwanda.</p>
<p>The success of such projects in turn drives demand for continued innovation, such as solar-powered cold chains or interventions that protect other resources like water and grasslands.</p>
<p>Finally, countries also need to prioritise policies that support new technologies across the livestock sector.</p>
<p>To <a href="https://www.dda.or.ug/profile.html">transform</a> its milk production sector, Uganda privatised the state-owned processing company Dairy Corporation as well as creating a Dairy Development Authority.</p>
<p>The Dairy Industry Act of 1998 empowered the authority to enforce milk hygiene standards and quality controls. As a result, traders were licensed to meet public health and milk quality standards. This encouraged the modernisation of the sector through the expansion of pasteurisation plants and processing infrastructure as well as processing of high value products. </p>
<p>Certainly, the gains have trickled down to the farmers in better farm gate prices.</p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>As the Malabo Montpellier Panel points out, many of the tools needed to tap into the potential of Africa’s livestock sector exist already. But with limited resources, they must be deployed smartly to improve the entire value chain.</p>
<p>Scaling up innovation at critical points will unlock new opportunities and help ensure animal agriculture keeps pace with a rising demand from a growing population.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noble Banadda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many of the tools needed to tap into the potential of Africa’s livestock sector exist already.Noble Banadda, Professor and Chair of the Department of Agricultural and Bio Systems Engineering, Makerere UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1114692019-02-12T22:48:21Z2019-02-12T22:48:21ZFrom cannabis edibles to plant proteins: 2019 food trends<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258383/original/file-20190211-174857-b1nlw3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Plant-based foods, including fruits and vegetables, will be more popular this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sydney Rae/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Food continues to find its way into the consciousness of Canadians. </p>
<p>It’s in our news feed, on our television screens and, more and more, part of our day-to-day conversations. The challenge is to separate the fact from the fiction, the ephemeral from the soon-to-be everyday. The University of Guelph’s newest <a href="https://www.foodfocusguelph.ca/trends-report">Food Focus Trends Report</a> highlights six key trends likely to be front and centre this year.</p>
<h2>Flexitarians on the rise</h2>
<p>While vegans and vegetarians get all the attention, the <a href="https://www.foodfocusguelph.ca/blog/the-new-food-guide-a-reflection-or-driver-of-change">flexitarians</a> are rapidly growing in number — and in clout. A flexitarian is someone who is eating less meat rather than giving it up entirely.</p>
<p>Almost 85 per cent of Canadians claim to eat at least one vegetarian meal per month, with nearly 50 per cent saying they do so at least once a week. Despite only seven to eight per cent of Canadians identifying as vegetarian or vegan, the conscious consumption of flexitarians will likely have a profound impact on the quantity and types of meat we eat as well as spurring the growth of protein alternatives. </p>
<p>By choosing to eat less meat, consumers are likely to indulge in more premium cuts while sacrificing staples like ground beef.</p>
<p>Plant-based proteins are also sure to grow in popularity, as are those from previously taboo sources, such as insects. Canada’s new <a href="https://food-guide.canada.ca/en/">Food Guide</a> also recommends an increased focus on plant-based foods.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-defence-of-canadas-food-guide-110347">In defence of Canada's Food Guide</a>
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<p>Should Canada’s meat industry be concerned? Possibly, but increased international demand should keep overall prices in our country steady for the foreseeable future and population growth here will also continue to increase the total demand for meat.</p>
<h2>Easing fears about gene-editing</h2>
<p>If comic books and horror movies have taught the average Canadian anything, it’s that nothing good ever comes from playing with genes. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, fiction can sometimes be more believable than facts. When it comes to agriculture, gene editing increases yields, develops tolerances to things like drought or pests, removes allergens (to make gluten-free wheat, for example) and enhances nutritional quality. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258306/original/file-20190211-174870-1wf7jfx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Canadian government approved the sale of genetically modified golden rice that’s fortified with Vitamin A. It’s an example of a GM food that directly benefits consumers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Josep Folta/Flickr</span></span>
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<p>And the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-04-10/gene-editing-good">biggest benefit</a> may be for the world’s poor. Basically, gene editing is doing what animal and plant breeders have been doing for hundreds and hundreds of years, only in a way that’s much faster, much cheaper and much more specific. </p>
<p>The only challenge? Reducing unfounded fears and communicating the incredible potential of genetically modified crops and foods in a way that Canadians can fully embrace.</p>
<h2>Protecting our pollinators</h2>
<p>In recent years, the humble bee has gone from picnic pest to cause célèbre. The decline of bee populations and its potential impact on food resources has Canadians rallying in support. And with good reason — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3721">a third of the world’s crops rely on pollinators</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258308/original/file-20190211-174861-1s5a1wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A third of the world’s crops need pollinators like bees. But some of them also require pesticides that are harmful to bees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jenna Lee/Unsplash</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Canada, the contribution of bees to crops like apples, blueberries and canola <a href="http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/industry-markets-and-trade/canadian-agri-food-sector-intelligence/horticulture/horticulture-sector-reports/statistical-overview-of-the-canadian-honey-and-bee-industry-and-the-economic-contribution-of-honey-bee-pollination-2016/?id=1510864970935#a5">has been estimated at over $5 billion.</a> </p>
<p>So shouldn’t we all be behind the bee? It’s not that simple. </p>
<p>While they are essential for some crops, other crops rely on methods of pest control that are associated with the decline of pollinators. </p>
<p>As we’ve seen with the neonicotinoids debate, striking a delicate balance between the needs of farmers and the protection of pollinators is an ongoing challenge and a goal that will not be easily achieved.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-its-time-to-curb-widespread-use-of-neonicotinoid-pesticides-96620">Why it's time to curb widespread use of neonicotinoid pesticides</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Canada is high on cannabis edibles</h2>
<p>Cannabis will soon be a major driver in the food and beverage category. This year should see edible products incorporated into Bill C-45 (the Cannabis Act), opening up opportunities for health foods and supplements, snack foods, packaged meals, restaurants and tourism.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ca/Documents/consulting/ca-cannabis-2018-report-en.PDF">Deloitte report</a> found that 58 per cent of current Canadian cannabis users intend to consume edibles once they’re legalized. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258310/original/file-20190211-174880-uqlyx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most Canadian cannabis users say they intend to consume edibles once they’re legal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But these highs do have some potential lows — work will need to be done to ensure proper dosing and to prevent unintended secondary consumption by children and pets. </p>
<p>As well, the path to market for cannabis products in Canada goes through three different pieces of legislation: the Cannabis Act, the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act and the Food and Drugs Act. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-keep-your-pets-safe-from-marijuana-poisoning-109134">How to keep your pets safe from marijuana poisoning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition, products for medical consumers must also meet the Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations that are included in the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act. But with the total market estimated at more than $7 billion (on par with Canada’s wine industry), the future is nonetheless bright for cannabis companies.</p>
<h2>Prospering in a time of protectionism</h2>
<p>The whirlwind of trade deals and disputes in the past few years has left many Canadians reeling. While there has been much hand-wringing over inter-provincial barriers, NAFTA/USMCA and new agreements with Europe and the Pacific Rim, freer trade in food has actually provided Canadian farmers with markets that are hungry for our products. </p>
<p>Plus, Canadian consumers have benefited and now enjoy a wider range of affordable food products. </p>
<p>The one downside? Our regulated dairy industry, along with other supply managed commodities, has ceded nearly 10 per cent of its market through recent trade deals.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-defence-of-canadas-dairy-farmers-105774">In defence of Canada's dairy farmers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This will not only be painful for the dairy sector, but it isn’t likely to result in lower prices for Canadians — although we will probably see a broader array of cheeses and other dairy products. Overall, though, trade has been good for Canada and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.</p>
<h2>Growing divide between food & farms</h2>
<p>Farms may feed people, but they have very little to do with the price you pay for food. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/258314/original/file-20190211-174861-1rhvxyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A farmer is seen on his Nova Scotia farm in 2014 with some of his laying hens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fluctuating prices of agricultural commodities like corn, wheat or soybeans often fuel news stories but the reality is the increases in food prices Canadians have seen over the years have been relatively consistent. </p>
<p>Put simply, food and farm prices are not the same and the relationship between the two continues to weaken. Today, the <a href="https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farmers-share-of-food-dollar-at-record-low">farmers’ share</a> of the food dollar is around 20 per cent — higher for less processed foods (nearly 50 per cent for eggs) and lower for more processed foods (two per cent for corn, which is used as a sweetener in manufactured food products). </p>
<p>While the effect of low commodity prices may be felt in farming regions and associated industries, it has little impact on Canadians when they’re checking off their grocery lists — and that isn’t expected to change in 2019.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111469/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael von Massow receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food to research issues in food waste and nutrition labeling for restaurant menus. He has received funding from the Walmart Foundation to explore food waste at the household level. He has received money from the Tim Hortons Sustainable Food Management Fund to explore consumer attitudes to antibiotic use and animal welfare. He has also received funding from Longo's Brothers Markets in support of research into consumer behaviour in food retail.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron De Laporte receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alfons Weersink receives funding from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, and the Canada First Research
Excellence Fund’s Food from Thought Initiative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam D. Kelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The six food trends likely to be front and centre in 2019.Michael von Massow, Associate Professor, Food Economics, University of GuelphAaron De Laporte, Research Associate, University of GuelphAlfons Weersink, Professor, Dept of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of GuelphLiam D. Kelly, Ph.D. Candidate, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1018432018-08-22T12:23:00Z2018-08-22T12:23:00ZHow climate change will affect dairy cows and milk production in the UK – new study<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232897/original/file-20180821-149472-17bl7a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cows-stuck-stall-eating-hay-sunset-706524715">Valerio Pardi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The unusually hot summer of 2018 has proved challenging for farmers across the UK. Among other things, the scorching weather and lack of rain has <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2018-07-17/heatwave-is-last-straw-for-some-crop-farmers/">damaged crops</a>, and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44704958">the grass</a> used to feed farm animals too.</p>
<p>Unfortunately the unusual may become more usual as the effects of climate change are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-models-predict-the-world-will-be-anomalously-warm-until-2022-101542">felt more frequently across the world</a>. The high ambient temperatures and humidity seen this year, as well as extreme weather conditions such as flooding, are a significant challenge to the future of farming. </p>
<p>Pasture-based systems of dairy production, which are very common in the UK, are particularly sensitive to environmental factors. In fact, dairy cows are more likely to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change than cows that are housed, because housing provides shelter and technological options to mitigate the extremes of weather. </p>
<h2>Heat stress in cows</h2>
<p>For our recent study, our team looked at how climate change might impact <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">UK milk production</a>, given what we already knew about how it affects dairy cows. In particular, we wanted to quantify the effects of heat stress on milk production. </p>
<p>Heat stress in cows occurs when ambient temperature and humidity go above animal specific thresholds. These thresholds are estimated by the <a href="http://www.coolcows.com.au/go-on-alert/thi.htm">temperature humidity index (THI)</a>. At present, the current British temperature and humidity is considered moderate on this scale, but is expected to get worse. It is open to debate, and depends on the cattle themselves, but generally a THI of more than 70 is regarded to be the point when heat stress becomes a problem and less milk is produced.</p>
<p>Using 11 different climate projection models, and 18 different milk production models, we estimated potential milk loss from UK dairy cows as climate conditions change during the 21st century. Given this information, our final climate projection analysis suggests that average ambient temperatures in the UK will increase by <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">up to about 3.5°C</a> by the end of the century. This means that THIs during the summer, in some parts of the country, will lead to significant heat stress for cows if nothing is done to alleviate the hot weather’s effects. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232894/original/file-20180821-149475-1t8zsri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Grazing on a summer’s day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/backlit-cow-grazing-field-sunset-672070138?src=D6qR88DqSNK8br0NI20upA-1-82">Gavayec/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lactating cows initially respond to mild heat stress by sweating, panting, drinking more, and seeking shade when possible. At higher temperatures cows eat less feed, which leads to a fall in milk production. In south-east England – the region with the highest incidence of heat stress – the average annual milk losses due to heat stress <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076">is projected</a> to exceed 170kg/cow. Cows in the UK currently produce an average of about 7,500kg of milk each year so these future losses would be about 2.4% of their production. </p>
<p>However, climate change projections also suggest the UK would experience more heatwaves, and these would lead to even greater losses of milk. For example, the hottest area (south-east England) in the hottest year in the 2090s is predicted to result in an annual milk loss exceeding 1,300kg/cow, which is about 18.6% of annual milk yield. </p>
<p>In economic terms, south-west England is expected to be the region most vulnerable to climate change because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density, and so potentially a high level of heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, the estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4m in average years, and £33.8m in extreme years.</p>
<p>However, by the end of the century we predict dairy cattle in large portions of Scotland and Northern Ireland could experience the same level of heat stress as cattle in southern England today. </p>
<h2>Mitigation now</h2>
<p>These predictions assume that nothing is done to mitigate the problems of heat stress. But there are many parts of the world that are already much hotter than the UK where milk is produced, and much is known about what can be done to protect the welfare of the animals and minimise economic losses from heat stress. These range from simple adaptations, such as the providing shade, to installing fans and water misting systems. </p>
<p>Cattle breeding for increased heat tolerance is another potential, which could be beneficial for maintaining pasture-based systems. In addition, changing the location of farming operations is another practice used to address economic challenges worldwide. Even though there is little indication that movement of dairy farming operations is a feasible strategy to decrease the risks of environmental challenges in the UK, regions with little or no prediction of conditions leading to heat stress (for example some parts of Scotland) may become increasingly important for UK dairy farms that depend on the availability of pasture.</p>
<p>In any case, we estimate that by 2100, heat stress-related annual income losses of average size dairy farms in the most affected regions may vary between £2,000-£6,000 and £6,000-£14,000 (in today’s value), in average and extreme years respectively. Armed with these figures, farmers need to begin planning for a hotter UK using cheaper, longer-term options such as planting trees or installing shaded areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Foskolos works for Aberystwyth University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Moorby receives research grant funding from Defra, BBSRC and the Welsh Government. </span></em></p>By 2100, heat stress in cows could see average sized dairy farms losing up to £14,000 a year.Andreas Foskolos, Research Fellow in Ruminant Livestock Modelling, Aberystwyth UniversityJon Moorby, Reader in Livestock Nutrition, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/846752017-09-25T23:00:56Z2017-09-25T23:00:56ZNAFTA talks: Seeing the benefits through the bluster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187453/original/file-20170925-17421-10r2ess.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=206%2C151%2C3643%2C2034&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A trade official from the United States walks past a sign Monday where Canadian, American and Mexican officials are holding North American free trade talks in Ottawa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The rhetoric surrounding the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is fomenting fear that the pact <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-day-3-investments-1.4305244">rests on shaky ground</a> and its demise is a real possibility.</p>
<p>Don’t believe the bluster. As a longtime researcher of food and agriculture policy in both the United States and Canada, I don’t believe NAFTA is about to disintegrate.</p>
<p>Even though U.S. President Donald Trump has loudly signalled a willingness to pull the plug and pull out of NAFTA — and despite the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-nafta-exit-would-be-a-rotten-deal-1506289039?mg=prod/accounts-wsj">negativity often expressed</a> in recent commentary on the subject — the dissolution of the agreement is highly improbable.</p>
<p>Most understand that killing the trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico would be catastrophic.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta/top-u-s-nafta-negotiator-sees-no-problem-with-pace-of-talks-idUSKCN1C02HU?il=0">The negotiations may be tense</a>, but NAFTA’s termination is an unrealistic possibility for a number of reasons. Primary among them is the fact that it has generally been a <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact">very good deal</a> for all three economies.</p>
<h2>NAFTA needs update</h2>
<p>By lowering or eliminating tariffs on most trade goods, NAFTA increased by three times the trade between the three countries. It has <a href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/naftas-impact-u-s-economy-facts/">spurred foreign direct investment,</a> created jobs and kept inflation in check. It has especially served the Canadian agriculture and food sector well, even though some details of the agreement could definitely be changed to bring it up to date.</p>
<p>The consequences of ending NAFTA outright would be calamitous. If the economic integration that has evolved over the past two-plus decades were to be lost, it would throw several sectors — many industries, businesses and communities — into turmoil.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/187454/original/file-20170925-11782-dpobm5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief NAFTA negotiator, participates in discussions on the modernization of the trade deal in Toronto last week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Renegotiating these types of international trade agreements is not necessarily a bad idea. A number of conditions have changed in the marketplace since NAFTA was enacted in 1994.</p>
<p>Production processes have transformed, and <a href="https://medium.com/canadian-american-business-council/remember-altavista-naftas-even-older-than-the-long-defunct-search-engine-febf14a59bc3">products and services that didn’t exist back then</a> now have a significant presence in the marketplace.</p>
<p>Renegotiation is an opportunity to incorporate those changes into the general framework of the deal. A modernized agreement would be beneficial for all three countries.</p>
<p>One of the successes of NAFTA is the <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-57606-0_3">extensive integration of the markets</a> it has fostered. Certain products can now cross borders multiple times before they reach end use. And increased efficiencies have been incorporated into production processes on all sides of the border.</p>
<p>Dismantling that integration would prove disastrous – in agriculture for sure, but also in Canada’s manufacturing sector, which is highly dependent on that integrative fluidity.</p>
<p>NAFTA certainly has shortcomings. There have been losing sectors. Communities, particularly in the United States, that were especially reliant on automotive, electronics and apparel sectors saw some of their production and jobs move to Mexico.</p>
<h2>NAFTA resentment in U.S.</h2>
<p>Perhaps not enough has been done to help those in hard-hit communities make a transition into new jobs and business opportunities. Because of that, there is <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/11/29/anger-at-trade-deals-propelled-donald-trump-to-victory.html">NAFTA resentment</a> in some areas.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.uoguelph.ca/fare/institute/Docs/FARE_conferenceRichardBarichello_WEB.pdf">Canadian agriculture</a> has benefited greatly from NAFTA. There has been some criticism in the United States of <a href="http://www.macleans.ca/economy/u-s-dairy-takes-aim-at-canadian-supply-management-in-nafta-talks/">Canada’s supply management system</a> for agricultural products like milk, chicken and eggs. Some of that criticism has gone so far as to call for abolishing supply management.</p>
<p>That view is almost entirely steeped in rhetoric, and the elimination of those Canadian protective measures is also highly unlikely. There’s also strong public and financial support for production agriculture in the U.S. as well.</p>
<p>If the demise of NAFTA were imminent, we would surely see its death foreshadowed in the risk-management behaviour of agricultural producers and in the manufacturing sector. But there are no signs of the stockpiling of goods in preparation for severed supply lines. And there are no “for sale” signs on the poultry or dairy farms in the countryside.</p>
<p>What we’re hearing during this renegotiation period is a lot of political noise. But we should also expect very little in the way of major change to NAFTA.</p>
<p>There has been a lot of bluster surrounding the ongoing negotiations. But the chances of a catastrophe are minimal.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Ker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s been a lot of rhetoric in the air about the fate of NAFTA, especially from the U.S. president. But its demise is extremely unlikely.Alan Ker, Professor and Director, Institute for the Advanced Study of Food and Agricultural Policy, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/601842016-06-05T20:12:31Z2016-06-05T20:12:31ZHigher supermarket prices for milk won’t necessarily help farmers<p>A fall in the farm gate price of milk and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/milk-crisis">the pain felt by dairy farmers</a> as a result, has many pointing the finger at supermarkets for discounting the price in the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-wars-pointing-the-finger-at-coles-and-woolworths-529">“milk wars.”</a> However the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-18/barnaby-joyce-urges-supermarkets-to-do-more-to-help-dairy-farms/7424862">suggested solution</a> of raising the price we pay for milk to pass on more profit to farmers is misguided.</p>
<p>Supermarkets have been driving down the cost of basic goods like milk since 2011. But the actual underlying culprit for the fall in prices has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/milk-price-cuts-reflect-the-reality-of-sweeping-changes-in-global-dairy-market-59251">the global glut of supply relative to demand</a> driving down the world price, with only a partial offset from the decline in the Australian exchange rate. </p>
<p>Others have <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-to-get-regulation-back-into-australian-dairy-599200">advocated for a return</a> to the regulation of the 20th century with a domestic price set at a premium, or retailers selling branded milk at a premium and returning a share to dairy farmers. In reality, the likely income gain from increasing prices for domestic milk sales would be small. </p>
<p>Australia’s current industry policy is to let market forces set prices, investment and employment across different sectors and industries, rather than government “picking winners” and subsidising selected industries. Setting prices for the dairy industry, would be a return to the “bad old days” with a risk of a decrease in farm productivity. </p>
<h2>Market Context</h2>
<p>About <a href="http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/agcomd9abcc004/agcomd9abcc20160301_cQe9T/AgCommodities201603_v1.0.0.pdf">25% of farm milk production</a> goes to fresh milk sales for domestic consumption. In turn, about a half goes to supermarkets where the store brands, sold for a dollar a litre, account for a bit <a href="http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/%7E/media/Documents/Stats%20and%20markets/S%20and%20O/2016-06%20S%20and%20O/2016-06%20Situation%20and%20Outlook.pdf">over half of all supermarket sales</a>. Some branded milk sells for nearly double the store brand milk. </p>
<p>If more people switched to buy a more expensive brand of milk, how many would it take to make enough returns to save dairy farmers? At the moment the maximum amount of milk sold for a dollar a litre would represent about 8% of current farm production. </p>
<p>The remaining 75% of farm milk is used to manufacture a range of products, including butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder. Roughly half of the butter and cheese is exported, and 70% of the milk powder. Australia imports cheese as well as exports. The Australian dairy industry depends on the world market for much of its production.</p>
<p>Another aspect that determines the returns for dairy farmers is the world price for manufactured dairy products, adjusted for movements in the Australian exchange rate. If supermarkets raised the farm gate price of milk above that which other countries pay for milk products, processors would switch from manufacturing these products to processing milk instead.</p>
<p>By the same argument, if some retailers are paying farmers above the export parity price, competitors will bid milk away from exporters and undercut the high payers to drive prices back to export parity. That is, the export price provides both a floor and a ceiling to the price which supermarkets can negotiate.</p>
<p>Australian dairy product exports represent a small share of world trade of dairy products, and a very much smaller share of world production. While it would be an oversimplification to say Australia doesn’t have a stake in setting the global dairy price, a 10% or 20% increase in Australian exports would require a very small export price reduction. </p>
<h2>A return to ‘the bad old days’</h2>
<p>Set prices for dairy products, and other agricultural products, were phased out as a part of economic reform in the 1980s and 1990s for a more productive economy and the reasons for this remain valid today. </p>
<p>Setting a price for domestic sales, in this case milk, above the export price leads to a battle between different parties and lobby groups as to what price to set, it may also influence consumers’ decisions as to what they buy and arguably some more than others. It could also shift more resources on farms into the dairy industry, chasing a higher price and away from other types of production (which are set by a global price) such as meat or horticulture.</p>
<p>For those dairy farm households facing poverty as a consequence of the slump in world prices, it is more direct and effective to provide direct household support than to artificially increase the product price for all dairy farmers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Freebairn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Paying a higher price for milk at the supermarket won’t help farmers much as the Australian dairy industry is more exposed to international markets.John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596072016-05-24T23:13:49Z2016-05-24T23:13:49ZMurray Goulburn saga has roots in deregulation<p>The history of the dairy cooperative Murray Goulburn and its farmer suppliers shows how a close relationship of trust has developed and been broken with the collapse of the farmgate milk price. Roots of the current crisis can be traced all the way back to the deregulation of the dairy industry at the start of the century.</p>
<p>Murray Goulburn was founded in Victoria in 1950 and grew steadily over the next two decades to become the nation’s largest dairy company by 1973. In its <a href="http://www.mgc.com.au/media/28754/MG-Annual-Report-2015.pdf">2015 annual report</a>
it recorded total assets of over A$1.84 billion and total revenues of A$2.88 billion. It holds a large portion of the dairy market, in 2016 it was estimated by <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/industry/industryreports.aspx?indtid=87&indpid=2086">IBISWorld</a> to have just over 42% of the national market for milk powder and 31% of the national market for milk and cream.</p>
<p>Over half its revenue comes from exports, primarily into Asia. It’s also the nation’s <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/car/default.aspx?entid=1103">largest buyer of raw milk</a>, employing around 2,400 people and with approximately 2,500 members.</p>
<h2>Deregulation and the “keystone” role of cooperatives</h2>
<p>The deregulation of the Australian dairy sector started in 1999 and rolled out over the following year. It saw the repeal of existing state legislation regulating the supply and pricing of milk. </p>
<p>The impact of this deregulation was mixed across Australia but it led to the decline in the total number of dairy farmers, from around 10,000 in 2000 to about 6,061 in 2016. It is likely to fall even more over coming years.</p>
<p>Despite increases in the overall size of dairy farms, most remain small-scale, family owned businesses. Dairy farming requires higher levels of capital investment than most other agricultural sectors, with major expenses being automated milking machines.</p>
<p>Milk is now essentially a global commodity and dairy farmers are price takers. With the need to invest more into capital equipment, fuel and stock feed, profit margins in the sector have been squeezed. </p>
<p>Over the past five years the average profit margin for dairy farms has fallen. Any decline in the farmgate milk price will only put many producers into unsustainable losses unless they can increase economies of scale by having larger herds or lower input costs. </p>
<p>Another consequence of the deregulation of the dairy industry has been the decline in cooperatives. The Dairy Farmers Cooperative was sold to National Foods (now Lion) in 2008, and Bega Cheese demutualised in 2011 and listed on the ASX. Today there are about nine dairy cooperatives active in Australia, the largest of these are Murray Goulburn and Norco Ltd from northern NSW. </p>
<p>Cooperatives like Murray Goulburn are different from other businesses. The cooperative should be focused primarily on its members’ welfare and as such it is unusual for them to be able to satisfy the often competing interests of members as patrons and outside investors from the ASX.</p>
<p>A well-run cooperative can be sustainable and profitable. It can serve as a “keystone” business that helps sustain its members. Keystone businesses are those firms that serve as a major buyer or supplier for many smaller “niche” firms, helping to keep the smaller firms more sustainable for an entire industry. </p>
<p>The approach taken in terms of milk supply and pricing is an example. Since the dereguation of the dairy industry Murray Goulburn has effectively set the farmgate milk price across most of the Australian dairy sector. It also takes all the milk its members wish to supply.</p>
<p>This stabilising and coordinating or “keystone” role within the dairy industry has been a feature of Murray Goulburn since market deregulation. Given the size of the cooperative anything that might affect its long term operations will have significant impact on the Australian dairy industry. </p>
<h2>The issue of trust in a cooperative</h2>
<p>Cooperative enterprises are owned by their members who also have a trading or patronage relationship with them. What differentiates them from other businesses is the democratic governance of the business, with member-owners having a say in major strategic decisions. </p>
<p>Management of a cooperative is therefore more complex and the board and executive leadership team must maintain the trust and loyalty of the members to keep the business strong. They also need to balance the member’s interests as suppliers (patrons) and as investors, while encouraging them to see themselves as owners of the cooperative and members of a <a href="http://www.cemi.com.au/node/541">community of purpose</a>. </p>
<p>The financial strength of the cooperative is only as important as the financial strength of its members. To survive the cooperative must maintain a clear social and economic purpose with the members’ interests first and foremost.</p>
<p>Gary Helou, then CEO, was part of a new management team brought into Murray Goulburn in 2011 to modernise and strengthen the cooperative’s leadership. However, his management style appears to have been more in keeping with that of a regular firm.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/murray-goulburn-milk-farce-why-werent-the-farmers-told-20160513-gouoqq.html">revelations by Fairfax Media</a> suggest that Helou and the senior management of Murray Goulburn had evidence of declining export sales as early as July last year. However, they continued to promise farmers a “guaranteed” high farmgate milk price and share price.</p>
<p>Although a capital restructure at Murray Goulburn was endorsed by the board it raised some concerns in the financial press and among <a href="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/agribusiness/dairy/former-mg-chairmen-concerned-for-future-of-coop/story-fnkeqg0i-1226924052204">former directors</a>. The financial crisis that the cooperative has found itself in is something of a self-inflicted wound. </p>
<p>It has sought to “<a href="http://www.cemi.com.au/node/553">walk both sides of the street</a>” with its ASX listing and overconfident pronouncements of keeping the farmgate milk price at around $6 per kg/MS. </p>
<p>Dairy farmers who are or once were members and shareholders have lost money. Many retired farmers who had their preference shares converted to the ASX listed ordinary shares have seen the value of their stock collapse. For their younger active counterparts the loss of share value is compounded by the lower milk price with many facing debts of A$100,000 to A$120,000. </p>
<p>Former CEO Gary Helou and former CFO Brad Hingle have departed Murray Goulburn leaving the cooperative’s board and Chairman Philip Tracy to face down angry farmers and shareholders, plus a class action led by legal firm Slater and Gordon. </p>
<p>Murray Goulburn’s members have been essentially turned from owners and members of a democratic community of purpose, into suppliers and investors whose share value is linked to the price of a litre of milk. That’s where the problem lies.</p>
<p>This is not necessarily the end of Murray Goulburn, however, they will need to regain the trust of their members and demonstrate that as a cooperative their primary focus is on the well-being of their farmer members. </p>
<p>As a business it must be frugal and focused on delivering its members the best prices at the lowest costs it can. Any investment and growth should be designed to provide its members with the best long term returns to their businesses as suppliers or buyers, not just to see the value of its share capital appreciate.</p>
<p>Of equal importance is the cooperative’s ability to keep its members loyal not just through the prices or dividends that it offers, but because they feel a sense of ownership and being part of a community of purpose that would be lost if the cooperative disappeared.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Mazzarol receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), Co-operative Bulk Handling Ltd and the Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals (BCCM). He is also the Director of the Co-operative Enterprise Research Unit (CERU) at the University of Western Australia.</span></em></p>The break up of trust between dairy farmers and Murray Goulburn can be tracked back to the degregulation of the dairy industry.Tim Mazzarol, Winthrop Professor, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Marketing and Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.