tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/e-mobility-11249/articlese-mobility – The Conversation2020-02-23T19:57:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311542020-02-23T19:57:27Z2020-02-23T19:57:27ZBillions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316398/original/file-20200220-92493-16dhl1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C152%2C5976%2C3730&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/san-francisco-ca-usa-april-27-1080711815">Toshifumi Hotchi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past decade almost <a href="https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/PitchBook_Q4_2019_Emerging_Tech_Research_Mobility_Tech_Executive_Summary.pdf">US$200 billion</a> has been invested globally in mobility technology that promises to improve our ability to get around. More than US$33 billion was invested last year alone. Another measure of interest in this area is the <a href="https://travelandmobility.tech/lists/unicorns/">number of unicorns</a>, which has doubled in the past two years. </p>
<p>A unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at US$1 billion or more. In early 2018 there were 22 travel and mobility unicorns. By last month the number had grown to 44. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-to-be-the-amazon-or-netflix-of-transport-103351">The battle to be the Amazon (or Netflix) of transport</a>
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<p>The top categories in the mobility area are: ride hailing, with 11 unicorns (25.0%); autonomous vehicles, with ten (22.7%); and micromobility, with three (6.8%). The remaining 20 unicorns are in the travel category (hotels, bookings and so on).</p>
<p>Mobility technology is more than just autonomous vehicles, ride hailing and e-scooters and e-bikes. It also includes: electrification (electric vehicles, charging/batteries); fleet management and connectivity (connectivity, data management, cybersecurity, parking, fleet management); auto commerce (car sharing); transportation logistics (freight, last-mile delivery); and urban air mobility.</p>
<h2>Promised solutions, emerging problems</h2>
<p>Much of the interest in mobility technology is coming from individuals outside the transport arena. Startups are attracting investors by claiming their technology will solve many of our transport problems. </p>
<p>Micromobility companies believe their e-scooters and e-bikes will solve the “<a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784413210.007">first-mile last-mile</a>” problem by enabling people to move quickly and easily between their homes or workplaces and a bus or rail station. While this might work in theory, it depends on having <a href="https://theconversation.com/fork-in-the-road-as-danish-and-dutch-style-cycle-routes-spread-19744">safe and segregated bicycle networks</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">frequent and widely accessible public transport</a> services. </p>
<p>Ride-hailing services might relieve people of the need to own a car. But <a href="https://www.som.com/ideas/publications/som_thinkers_the_future_of_transportation">there is evidence</a> to suggest these services are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ride-hail-utopia-that-got-stuck-in-traffic-11581742802">adding to traffic congestion</a>. That’s because, unlike taxis, more of their time on the road involves travelling without any passengers.</p>
<p>Navigation tools (Google Maps, Apple Maps, Waze) have <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Maps">been around longer</a> than most other mobility technologies and are meant make it easier to find the least-congested route for any given trip. However, <a href="https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/%7Etheophile/docs/publications/Cabannes_19_ACM.pdf">research</a> suggests these tools might not be working as intended. The <a href="https://www.som.com/ideas/publications/som_thinkers_the_future_of_transportation">backlash</a> against them is growing in some cities because traffic is being directed onto neighbourhood streets rather than arterial roads.</p>
<p>Autonomous vehicles have the goal of reducing injuries and deaths from car crashes. Only a few years ago many bold predictions were being made that these self-driving vehicles would be having positive impacts by now, but this hasn’t happened. The enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles has cooled. <a href="https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf">Some now believe</a> we won’t see many of the social benefits for decades. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-feel-about-our-cars-means-the-road-to-a-driverless-future-may-not-be-smooth-125874">How we feel about our cars means the road to a driverless future may not be smooth</a>
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<p>The final mobility tech area is known as mobility as a service (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobility_as_a_service">MAAS</a>). It’s basically a platform designed to make better use of existing infrastructure and transport modes. MAAS begins with a journey planner that is linked to one-stop payment for a range of mobility services – ride-hailing, e-scooters, e-bikes, taxis, public transport, and so on. </p>
<p>MAAS is the newest entrant in the mobility tech field. It has attracted US$6.8 billion to date, but is expected to grow to <a href="https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/mobility-as-a-service-market-78519888.html">over US$100 billion by 2030</a>. This idea is creating great enthusiasm, not only among private entrepreneurs, but also in the public sector. It’s too early to know whether it will improve transportation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
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<h2>3 trends are driving investment</h2>
<p>So, why do venture capitalists <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfrazer1/2019/03/11/new-mobility-worth-billions-venture-capital-thinks-so/#198cda2247d8">continue to show so much interest</a> in mobility technology startups despite poor company performance to date? It appears they believe personal mobility will become increasingly important. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnfrazer1/2019/03/11/new-mobility-worth-billions-venture-capital-thinks-so/#198cda2247d8">Three trends</a> support this belief.</p>
<p>First, urban dwellers increasingly value the ability to move around easily. It’s thought to be a key ingredient for a liveable city. The problem is public transport is often not very good, particularly in the US and in outer suburbs in Australia. </p>
<p>This is due to historically low funding relative to roads. The prospect of more funding and better public transport services in the future is not good. In part that’s because many <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9118199/public-transportation-subway-buses">view public transport as welfare</a> and not an essential public service. Thus, if cities want to become more liveable and competitive, they must look beyond government-funded public transport for other mobility alternatives. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-bolster-our-fragile-road-and-rail-system-we-need-to-add-a-micro-mobility-network-124895">To bolster our fragile road and rail system we need to add a 'micro-mobility' network</a>
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<p>The second trend is declining vehicle ownership. Since 1986 US sales of car and light trucks per capita have dropped by <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/02/04/vehicle-sales-per-capita-our-latest-look-at-the-long-term-trendh">almost 30%</a>. In Australia, new car sales <a href="https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/australian-car-sales-statistics.html">remained relatively constant</a> over the past decade, but a <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7982-new-vehicle-purchase-intention-march-2019-201905240039">decline since 2017 is expected to continue</a>. These trends are due in part to the cost of owning a vehicle, but also because of a growing view that owning a car may not be necessary.</p>
<p>This brings us to the third trend, which involves demographics and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-getting-driving-licences-opens-door-to-more-sustainable-travel-57430">post-millennial desire for access to mobility</a> services <a href="https://theconversation.com/car-ownership-is-likely-to-become-a-thing-of-the-past-and-so-could-public-transport-110550">rather than vehicle ownership</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?</a>
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<p>These trends, combined with expectations of an upward trend in prices of these services, suggests there may be good times ahead for ride-hailing and micromobility companies. It also means venture capital funding for these startups will not be diminishing in the near future.</p>
<h2>The future of transport isn’t simple</h2>
<p>Transport systems are multifaceted. No one single app or technology will solve the challenges. And, as we are discovering, some of the purported solutions to problems might actually be making the situation worse. </p>
<p>If the goal is to get people out of their cars (for <a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">better health and quality of life and a better environment</a>), this will require more than a technology. Better infrastructure and public policies (including better integration of land uses and transport to reduce the need for transport) will be required – <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">congestion pricing</a> being one of those.</p>
<p>That is not to say technological innovations are not welcome as part of the solution, but they are just that … “part” of the solution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Over US$33 billion was invested in mobility tech last year in response to claims it will transform our lives. Based on what we have seen so far, which of these promised solutions will be delivered?Neil G Sipe, Adjunct Researcher in Transport and Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1256192019-11-21T20:09:57Z2019-11-21T20:09:57ZE-scooters, bikes and urban mobility: lessons from the streets of Paris<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300678/original/file-20191107-10935-1rthtu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C59%2C4000%2C2473&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rue des Tournelles, Paris, November 5, 2019. Four Voi scooters wait hopefully for potential clients, with a Lime and Dott sprawling nearby. Behind them, a Velib' rider has made his choice. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leighton Kille/The Conversation France </span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mobility is a crucial challenge for global cities in the 21st century. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50401308">growing impact</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html">immense risks</a> of climate change are becoming clearer every day, and cities are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/29/climate/coastal-cities-underwater.html">on the front line</a>. Globally, transportation generates <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data">14% of all greenhouse gases</a>, much of it for personal transportation.</p>
<p>To reduce their carbon footprint and increase mobility options, many cities have been investing in <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/pdf/10.1289/EHP3754">bike-share systems</a>. One of the largest is Paris’s <a href="https://www.velib-metropole.fr/en_GB/discover/service">Velib’</a>, with more than <a href="https://velib.philibert.info/">14,000 bicycles</a>. Launched in 2007, the system is built around docks – it’s there that customers pick up and drop off bikes, and they also serve as recharging stations for electric models.</p>
<p>Since 2017, a host of start-ups has emerged offering fleets of dockless bikes and electric scooters in cities around the world. The concept was simple: users downloaded an app and paid, grabbed a bike or scooter, and off they went, leaving it wherever they wanted after. Floating on an <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/reuters-america-scooter-startup-bird-raises-275-million-in-latest-funding-round.html">ocean of venture capital</a>, the firms took advantage of a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17676670/electric-scooter-rental-bird-lime-skip-spin-cities">legal void</a> and distributed thousands of bicycles and scooters in cities large and small around the world.</p>
<h2>Destination, the City of Light</h2>
<p>For mobility start-ups, Paris offered an irresistible target. The region’s population is more than 12 million and it attracted approximately <a href="https://press.parisinfo.com/news/press-releases/Paris-record-tourist-numbers-in-2017">40 million tourists in 2017</a>, each one a potential customer. For better or worse, the city’s leadership initially took a hands-off approach to free-floating bikes and scooters and the result was predictable: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2019/09/10/e-scooter-havoc-across-french-cities-is-a-crackdown-needed/">chaos</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300680/original/file-20191107-10905-16tamrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A snapped Lime lies abandoned in Paris. Attempting to speed their launch and minimise costs, e-mobility firms have often used off-the-shelf scooters that die quickly on city streets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leighton Kille/The Conversation France</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>At the height the boom in the summer of 2019, more than a dozen firms were filling Paris streets with vehicles of all sorts. Not only was the free-for-all <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/12/electric-scooter-victims-sue-paris-authorities-demand-end-anarchy/">bad for residents and visitors</a>, it was cruel to the start-ups themselves. E-scooters in particular proved to cost far more than they bring in over their <a href="https://qz.com/1561654/how-long-does-a-scooter-last-less-than-a-month-louisville-data-suggests/">extremely short lives</a> and the companies burned through their cash.</p>
<p>The result was high turnover, with firms exiting the market almost as quickly as they entered. At least six Paris e-scooter operators have <a href="https://www.clubic.com/mobilie-urbaine-electrique/actualite-862650-trottinettes-electriques-6-12-operateurs-jettent-provisoirement-eponge-paris.html">“suspended operations”</a> (read, given up), and that follows the departure of free-floating bikes from <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/info-paris-ile-de-france-oise/transports/les-velos-en-free-floating-ofo-mis-en-pause-a-paris-18-12-2018-7971831.php">Gobee, Obike and Ofo</a>. The most recent victim is Coup, an affiliate of Bosch, which announced November 25 that it would suspend operations in Paris and Berlin because its electric-scooter service was <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/info-paris-ile-de-france-oise/transports/scooters-en-libre-service-l-operateur-coup-va-mettre-fin-a-ses-activites-a-paris-25-11-2019-8201487.php">“economically non-viable”</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the numerous failures and the city’s demand that companies show <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2019/08/24/trottinettes-electriques-en-attendant-les-regles_5502278_3224.html">greater responsibility</a>, the venture-capital-driven optimism continues. Newer entrants such as Jump, Wind and Donkey Republic are all hoping to beat the dockless jinx, and more will certainly come. This makes Paris an interesting case study, where regulatory loopholes and brute capitalism meet, with the city’s streets as the battlefield.</p>
<h2>Easy come, easy go</h2>
<p>A key puzzle is why the companies that were the first to arrive in Paris exited almost as quickly. Shouldn’t they have had <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/firstmover.asp">“first-mover advantage”</a>, allowing them to keep others at bay? Unfortunately, there were powerful economic realities at play in the micromobility space that made their reigns brief, and that will likely do away with many of the newer entrants as well.</p>
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<li><p><strong>Low barriers to entry</strong>: When new firms enter an industry, there are often factors that protect existing operators – patents, deep pockets or regulations, for example. But all an e-mobility start-up needs are a modest amount of capital, a website and an app. Scooters are manufactured as cheaply as possible overseas, distributed in the targeted city, and from there it’s up to users and teams of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/business/lime-bird-scooters-rechargers.html">freelance “juicers”</a> to keep things moving. Operators can go wherever they deem attractive, and that’s bad news for existing operators.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Non-existent switching costs</strong>: When customers shift between, say, smartphones, there’s often a cost in terms of money or time and effort. When it comes to e-scooters or dockless bikes, however, they’re all nearly identical other than the logos. The same goes for the applications and the pricing – in Europe, the unlocking costs are generally 1 euro ($1.14) and the per-minute charges around 0.25 (30 cents). So other than the time spent installing an app, there is no reason for customers to be loyal to any one operator.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Abundant substitutes</strong>: Today most urban centres offer a wealth of options for solving the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lastmile.asp">last-mile problem</a>. First among these are <a href="https://www.bikesharingmap.com">bike-share systems</a>, which are often city-supported, with dedicated maintenance teams and docks that automatically recharge electric models. Other options include mass transportation, taxis, ride-sharing services, a personal bike, scooter or hoverboard, and the list goes on. Indeed, a <a href="http://transports.blog.lemonde.fr/2019/06/06/enquete-inedite-utilisateurs-trottinettes-electriques/">June 2019 survey</a> of Paris e-scooter users revealed that 47% would have simply walked if one hadn’t been available.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Misaligned interests</strong>: E-mobility operators have the benefit of being untethered by fixed infrastructure, but that also creates a situation where riders and “juicers” are the de facto service providers. This creates <a href="https://www.oxford-review.com/oxford-review-encyclopaedia-terms/distributed-agency-definition-application/">“distributed agency” problems</a>, where these individuals’ interests may not align with those of the firms – for example, users can drop scooters in locations they’re unlikely to be rented or even <a href="https://laist.com/2019/06/13/bird_graveyard_scooter_instagram_q_and_a.php">destroy them</a>.</p></li>
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<h2>Not so green after all</h2>
<p>Beyond these cruel economic realities, the business model currently used by operators of dockless e-scooters and bikes imposes a range of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/externality.asp">negative externalities</a>, which are costs imposed on those not directly involved in a transaction between two parties – an e-scooter left sprawling after being used is a simple example. Cities find themselves stuck with having to impose order, discard broken vehicles, and sort out accidents, minor and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/13/tv-presenter-emily-hartridge-dies-in-scooter-crash">sometimes fatal</a>.</p>
<p>And while e-scooters are often promoted as a “green” mode of transportation, research indicates that, as a whole, dockless systems have <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2da8">high environmental costs</a>. In <a href="https://chesterenergyandpolicy.com/2019/01/28/its-a-bird-its-a-lime-its-dockless-scooters-but-can-these-electric-powered-mobility-options-be-considered-sustainable-using-life-cycle-analysis/">some scenarios</a>, their per-kilometre lifetime carbon emissions that are comparable to those of midsize gas-powered cars.</p>
<p>Scooter companies and users don’t pay these external costs, but they <a href="https://www.lesnumeriques.com/trottinette-electrique/dott-en-veut-a-bird-lime-responsables-desamour-trottinettes-n88947.html">damage the firms’ public image</a> and that’s no small matter in a battle for a market that has a wealth of competitors and <a href="https://qz.com/1561654/how-long-does-a-scooter-last-less-than-a-month-louisville-data-suggests/">non-existent margins</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300686/original/file-20191107-10935-c5f50p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Paris, Rue de l'Abbé de l'Epée and the Boulevard Saint-Michel, May 27, 2019. Eight Birds, one Jump and a Mobike try to temp city residents and visitors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leighton Kille/The Conversation France</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Some hope on battlefield</h2>
<p>All this makes the situation ominous for any current operator of dockless e-mobility services, and enormously complicate the task of any start-up wishing to launch a competing service. A few of the possibilities:</p>
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<li><p>New and ideally patented innovations can differentiate what are essentially interchangeable services and thereafter create entry barriers – say, scooters with markedly superior battery performance or unique safety features. For example, <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-news/90161/wind-unveils-new-e-scooter-with-industry-first-swappable-battery/">Wind</a> recently introduced scooters with swappable batteries that speed recharging.</p></li>
<li><p>Interconnection of related services (or <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economiesofscope.asp">economies of scope</a>). Uber has started offering electric bikes and scooters through the same app that allows customers to call a car ride or order food. In a sense, Paris has long used the same all-in-once approach, connecting the city’s regional rail and metro with the Velib’ bike-sharing system through the same <a href="http://www.navigo.fr/">Navigo card</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Complementary partnerships. <a href="https://www.li.me/second-street/lime-google-maps-integration-expands-over-80-new-cities">Lime</a> is now available on Google Maps, increasing the odds that it will be chosen by those looking for the best available routes.</p></li>
<li><p>Change the value propositions and service delivery to create a <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/09/24/how-digital-businesses-can-leverage-the-high-cost-for-consumers-to-switch-platforms/">lock-in effect</a>. For example, firms could target corporate customers or rent for longer periods, something Bird has introduced in select cities. This has the advantage for operators of making customers responsible for charging and could theoretically cause them to behave more responsibly.</p></li>
<li><p>Negotiate contracts. Many cities have effectively banned scooters, including New York and London, but that also creates an opportunity a firm can obtain an official contract. That’s what happened in San Francisco, and while fleet sizes remain <a href="https://sf.curbed.com/2019/10/15/20915198/san-francisco-e-scooter-electronic-escooter-scooters-sf">strictly controlled</a>, for operators it’s better than being driven out of business in an all-for-none brawl.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>No easy answers</h2>
<p>It’s hard to predict how the e-mobility industry will evolve, but the low entry barriers, non-existent switching costs, abundant substitutes, distributed agency problems, and negative externalities will not disappear anytime soon. That makes it supremely difficult for any one operator to remain in place, much less dominate a market. </p>
<p>Worse, because there are no barriers to entry, new firms can show up overnight, a fresh threat to those that had managed to survive up to that point. While some companies are trying to counter some of these adverse conditions, the headwinds are stiff and the story so far is anything but reassuring.</p>
<p>So which start-up will win the urban mobility battle? Quite possibly, none of the above.<br>
</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300687/original/file-20191107-10924-p94sa6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Ofo and an Obike come out after an extended dip in the Seine, June 20, 2019. Both firms gave up trying to crack the Paris market long ago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leighton Kille/The Conversation France</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em>The origin of this text and its main arguments gained from insightful conversations with <a href="https://www.emlv.fr/en/team/dan-prudhomme/">Professor Dan Prud'Homme</a> (EMLV Business School). <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leighton-kille-173484/">Leighton Kille</a> of The Conversation France contributed examples, resources and photographs, and edited the text for clarity</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tiago Ratinho ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>In major cities around the world, dockless scooters and bikes are everywhere, yet the companies themselves are often breathtakingly short-lived. Basic economic concepts give us clues why.Tiago Ratinho, Associate Professor in Entrepreneurship, IÉSEG School of ManagementLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033512018-11-26T19:02:24Z2018-11-26T19:02:24ZThe battle to be the Amazon (or Netflix) of transport<p>High-tech companies and venture capitalists have been striving to break into the transport and mobility market. Between 2016 and 2018, venture capital <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/07/the-rise-of-urban-tech/564653/">investment in urban technology surpassed that of many other areas</a>, including pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence. Almost 70% of this investment was in mobility. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-mobility-alone-is-no-substitute-for-strong-policy-leadership-105959">Smart mobility alone is no substitute for strong policy leadership</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are many players in this space, but the three largest are Alphabet, Uber and Didi Chuxing.</p>
<h2>So what do these companies do?</h2>
<p>Alphabet, Google’s parent company, was recently <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/03/alphabet-transportation-investments-projects-overview.html?__source=twitter%7Ctech">dubbed a superpower of transportation by business research firm Gartner</a>. Its market capitalisation, estimated at <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOGL/alphabet/market-cap">more than US$700 billion in November 2018</a>, makes it one of the world’s most valuable companies.</p>
<p>Alphabet has many different investment arms, including GV, CapitalG and Gradient. All have invested heavily in transport companies such as Uber, Lyft, Gojek, SpaceX and Scotty Labs. </p>
<p>Google got started in transport by creating digital maps with navigation functions. Later it added features such as traffic conditions and street views. It’s estimated that <a href="https://themanifest.com/app-development/popularity-google-maps-trends-navigation-apps-2018">nearly 70% of smartphone users use the Google Map app</a>. </p>
<p>Alphabet also owns Waze, <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/waze-vs-google-maps/">another navigation app</a> that enables users to crowdsource information on highway construction and traffic congestion.</p>
<p>Google is acknowledged as a leader in autonomous vehicle research through Waymo, its self-driving car unit. To date, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/waymo-wont-have-to-prove-its-driverless-taxis-are-safe-before-2018-launch/">Waymo vehicles</a> have logged more than 16 million kilometres in tests. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ROAwXEqDk7k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In October, Waymo marked a milestone of more than 16 million kilometres self-driven on public roads.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Waymo is also working with cities to improve public transport. One of these initiatives is a partnership with Phoenix Valley Public Transit in Arizona to provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-e-scooters-solve-the-last-mile-problem-theyll-need-to-avoid-the-fate-of-dockless-bikes-102633">services to solve</a> the “<a href="https://transportist.org/2016/10/06/what-do-we-know-about-the-first-milelast-mile-problem-for-transit/">first and last mile</a>” problem. </p>
<p>Another initiative related to autonomous vehicles involves developing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/fastest-driverless-vehicle-unveiled-in-adelaide/9887458">self-driving buses</a>. These will reduce costs of providing public transport by eliminating human drivers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-driverless-future-what-happens-to-todays-drivers-51973">In a driverless future, what happens to today's drivers?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Alphabet created Sidewalk Labs in 2015 to focus on <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/googles-guinea-pig-city/552932/">building better and “smarter” cities</a>. Sidewalk Labs’ first experimental site in Toronto will feature <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2018/08/15/quayside-sidewalk-toronto-sidewalk-labs-waterfront-canada-smart-city-development/">flexible, modular streets and heated sidewalks</a>. </p>
<p>Within Sidewalk Labs are three portfolio companies. Among these, Coord is involved with improving mobility in cities. Cityblock focuses on health. And Intersection is interested in urban innovation and technology.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bV5gOiJRWYw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Personal mobility is a key focus of the Sidewalk Toronto project.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-tech-company-build-a-city-ask-google-86402">Can a tech company build a city? Ask Google</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Finally, the Google founders are personally interested in developing <a href="https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/04/26/forget-flying-cars-googles-sergey-brin-is-reportedly-building-a-blimp-of-some-sort/">flying cars and high-tech blimps</a>.</p>
<p>Uber was founded in 2009 as a peer-to-peer ride-sharing company. It has been one of the most successful startups. As of August 2018, it was <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">valued at US$72 billion</a>. In a recent <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2018/09/06/dara-khosrowshahis-first-year-at-uber">interview with The Economist</a>, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said his goal is for Uber to become the Amazon of transport. </p>
<p>As the previous CEO of Expedia, he has experience in aggregating services from a range of companies. This is what Expedia did by combining fare information for hotels, flights and car rentals into a single site. </p>
<p>Uber is involved in a range of transport-related offerings, including ride sharing, pooled ride sharing, share bikes and scooters, autonomous vehicles, food delivery and freight. </p>
<p>The company is looking to expand into public transit. Earlier this year, it created the <a href="http://www.thetransitwire.com/2018/02/01/uber-launches-cincinnati-mobility-lab-with-regional-partners/">Cincinnati Mobility Lab</a> to conduct research and engage with employers to help Cincinnati, Ohio, develop a transport plan to increase public transport use. </p>
<p>The third major player is Didi Chuxing. Established in 2012, the Beijing-based company has attracted venture capital funding and was <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">valued at US$56 billion</a> as of August 2018. Didi was a major competitor to Uber in China until in 2016 it <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/didi-chuxing-china-startups-uber">purchased Uber’s Chinese operations</a> for <a href="http://time.com/4432662/uber/">US$35 billion</a>. Until recently it operated in China only, but is now branching out in Mexico, Brazil and Australia, with plans for further expansion into a number of other countries. </p>
<p>Like Uber, Didi provides transport services across taxis, minibuses, ride pooling and ride, car, bicycle and e-scooter sharing. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-e-scooters-solve-the-last-mile-problem-theyll-need-to-avoid-the-fate-of-dockless-bikes-102633">Can e-scooters solve the 'last mile' problem? They'll need to avoid the fate of dockless bikes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Recently Didi has expanded into three other transport-related areas: big data management to service its growing transport empire; artificial intelligence focusing on autonomous vehicles; and smart transport applications such as smart traffic signals, reversible traffic lane management and the like. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-streets-become-a-living-lab-that-could-transform-your-daily-travel-71272">City streets become a living lab that could transform your daily travel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Mass transportation versus MaaS</h2>
<p>While not specifically mentioning <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">Mobility as a Service</a> (MaaS), all of the tech companies are headed in the same direction. They all want to be the dominant provider of a transport services platform. </p>
<p>A company that has played a major role in promoting MaaS is <a href="https://maas.global/what-is-mobility-as-a-service-maas/">MaaS Global</a>. It’s much smaller than Alphabet, Uber and Didi Chuxing, but its CEO has aspirations for the company to become the <a href="https://www.helsinkismart.fi/portfolio-items/whim/">Netflix of transport</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s behind all this interest?</h2>
<p>Tech companies and venture capitalist may be interested in transport only because there is money to be made. Or, perhaps, they are also interested in solving a growing global problem. </p>
<p>Either way, with urbanisation increasing worldwide, traffic congestion will continue to worsen. Building more infrastructure is not only costly, but <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/stuck-in-traffic/">provides only a temporary fix</a>. Perhaps improving mobility by making better use of existing infrastructure, as tech companies are proposing, is the way forward for cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Investment is pouring into urban technology, much of it into innovative ventures that aim to transform how we get around our cities.Neil G Sipe, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, The University of QueenslandDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/404282015-06-26T14:48:01Z2015-06-26T14:48:01ZMiniaturisation will lead to ‘smart spaces’ and blur the line between on and offline<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86520/original/image-20150626-1438-rkwu91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A computer-on-a-stick is the start, but they'll get smaller and smarter yet.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lenovo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lenovo, the Chinese firm that has bought up IBM’s cast off PC business, has announced a miniaturised computer not much larger than a smartphone, which can be connected to any screen via an HDMI connection. </p>
<p>Advances in electronic components manufacturing processes and integration have resulted in large-scale miniaturisation of computer systems. This has enabled the latest <a href="http://www.freescale.com/webapp/sps/site/overview.jsp?code=TM_RD_PKG_SIP">system-in-package</a> and <a href="http://www.techradar.com/news/computing/pc/system-on-a-chip-what-you-need-to-know-about-socs-1147235">system-on-a-chip</a> approaches, where the processor and other necessary functionality usually provided by many microchips can be incorporated into a single silicon chip package.</p>
<p>Lenovo’s <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/24/lenovo-announces-a-130-windows-pc-in-a-stick/?ncid=rss">Ideacenter Stick 300</a> runs Windows 8 or Linux, is powered by a micro-USB connector and comes fitted with a new Intel Bay Trail CPU, 2GB RAM, 32GB flash storage, an SD card reader, Wi-Fi – even speakers.</p>
<p>Lenovo isn’t the first to shrink the PC down to pocket size. Intel’s <a href="http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/04/intels-compute-stick-a-full-pc-thats-tiny-in-size-and-performance/">Compute Stick</a> is another dongle-sized computer with similar specs released this year.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86523/original/image-20150626-1386-x5sqtw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intel’s Compute Stick is another effort to shrink the PC to pocket size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Intel</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Raspberry Pi, <a href="https://theconversation.com/upgraded-raspberry-pi-offers-windows-and-linux-the-best-of-both-worlds-37135">now upgraded</a> to its second major release, was probably the first to provide the functionality of a desktop or laptop computer in a credit card sized electronic board. Over five million Raspberry Pi computers have been sold since launch in 2012.</p>
<p>Google has used its stripped-down Chrome OS based on its Chrome browser to reduce a Chromebook (Chrome OS-powered laptop) down to the <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/03/google-unveils-chrome-stick-turns-display-pc/">Chromebit</a>. While the Chromebit is no larger than a USB memory stick, it’s markedly less powerful than Intel’s offering, as it is powered by the <a href="http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/03/cortex-a17-chips-allow-arm-chromebooks-to-limbo-down-to-149/">Rockchip RK3288</a>, an ARM processor, which makes it comparable in power to a smartphone.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/86525/original/image-20150626-1402-yd8wma.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Google’s Chromebit, in more colours than black.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Katie Roberts-Hoffman/Google</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are other stick-sized, computers running low-power ARM processors capable of running Android, such as <a href="http://www.fxitech.com/cotton-candy/what-is-it/">Cotton Candy</a> or <a href="http://www.techradar.com/reviews/gadgets/portable-video/chromecast-1171126/review">Google Chromecast</a>. These plug into a digital television to play video directly to the TV or from internet streaming services such as Netflix – but not much else.</p>
<h2>The appeal of small</h2>
<p>Computers this small are attractive for many organisations, such as schools and universities who need to equip functional computer laboratories at minimum cost while taking up as little space as possible. Low power devices also consumer less power which keeps costs down. </p>
<p>A typical desktop computer uses about 65-250 watts (plus 20-40 watts for an LCD monitor) – considerably higher than a typical PC-on-a-stick at about 10 watts. There are obvious business uses, such as digital signage and advertising when connected to screens or projectors. </p>
<p>This new round of computer miniaturisation marks a third wave of computerisation. First there were room-sized computers, shared between many users – the mainframe era. These time-sharing systems gradually disappeared as computers were miniaturised, replaced by the one computer per user of the personal computer or PC era. Today one person could have many computers, whether recognisable as desktop and latop PCs or smartphones or compute sticks, but which are accessible everywhere and anywhere. Known as <a href="http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/UbiHome.html">ubiquitous or pervasive computing</a>, this is the third wave in computing.</p>
<h2>A smart, mobile future</h2>
<p>As all computing devices grow smaller, the aim is that they are more connected and more integrated into our environment. The computing technology fades into our surroundings until only the user interface remains perceptible to users. It is an emerging discipline that brings computing to our living environments, makes those environments sensitive to us and have them adapt to the user’s needs. By enriching an environment with appropriate interconnected computing devices, the environment would be able to sense changes and support decisions that benefit its users.</p>
<p>There is a growing interest in these <a href="http://www.computer.org/web/computingnow/pervasivecomputing">smart spaces</a> using miniaturised computing technologies to support our daily lives more effectively. For example, smart offices, classrooms, and homes that allow computers to monitor and control what is happening in the environment.</p>
<p>Apple’s <a href="http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/129922-apple-homekit-explained-how-does-it-work-and-what-products-are-homekit-ready">HomeKit</a> and Google’s <a href="https://nest.com/uk/">Nest</a> are a start in this direction, providing the hardware and software to allow home automation. A smart home that monitors temperature and movement could allow elderly to remain self-sufficient and independent in their own home, for example, and voice activated devices could help everyday tasks such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-dash-is-a-first-step-towards-an-internet-of-things-that-is-actually-useful-39711">ordering the shopping</a>. A smart office could remind staff of information such as meeting reminders. It could turn the lights on and off, or control heating and cooling efficiently. A smart hospital ward will monitor patients and warn doctors and nurses of any potential problem or human errors. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/smart-anything-everywhere">Smart Anything Everywhere</a> vision of the European Commission drives research and development in this area. The evolution and disruptive innovation across the field of computing, from the Internet of Things, smart cities and smart spaces down to nano-electronics – the applications and benefits of greater miniaturisation of computers are endless.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmad Lotfi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Smaller computer are coming to your pocket, and then your homes, your workplaces, and everywhere else.Ahmad Lotfi, Reader in Computational Intelligence, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/285782014-06-30T12:38:08Z2014-06-30T12:38:08ZElectric cars won’t really take off until costs come down (or petrol goes up)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52635/original/4qrsn9mq-1404121860.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric cars have still not won over the public, and not just because some look like this.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wbaiv/4603638058/">wbaiv</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The electric car trend is still to take off in the UK, with drivers largely put off by up-front costs, according to a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321157/electric-vehicles-2014.pdf">survey</a> by the Department for Transport.</p>
<p>A measly 5% of respondents were thinking about buying an electric car or van, and only a fifth of them were considering doing so in the near future. Just 0.3% already owned an electric vehicle meaning that, at best, there are a little over one in 20 people who have any interest at all in owning an electric car. In contrast, 14% had contemplated buying a car or van but decided against it, while the most damning statistic is that over half, 56%, had not even thought about the possibility of going electric.</p>
<p>There are areas where electric vehicles have established themselves as part of everyday life. There are few more British sights than the electric milk float going about its door-to-door deliveries at the crack of dawn. There are also many successful industrial applications of electric vehicles, such as fork lift trucks or pallet moving vehicles. The reason these applications have had traction is that there is an identifiable niche that the <a href="http://www.enevate.eu/activities/results_nichetypology.pdf?Edition=en">electric powered vehicle option fulfils</a> better than conventional engines. The milk delivery benefits from a quiet electric engine which doesn’t wake up the snoozing masses. Similarly, regulations and health and safety concerns makes electric engines a better choice than petrol and diesel in factories.</p>
<p>But for the general public, electric vehicles seem irrelevant. Up to three quarters of the electric cars and vans on the road in the UK are <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2205708/Electric-car-grants-worth-5-000-benefit-just-government-pot-used-scheme.html">run by businesses</a> and local authorities in fleets, where they can play a major role in meeting emissions targets and improving operating costs.</p>
<p>Despite this, electric vehicle sales are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/11/electric-car-sales-record-high-uk">often claimed</a> as “record breaking” and at an “all-time-highs” in Britain. Unsurprising, since they are coming from such a low base. Indeed, the <a href="http://www.smmt.co.uk/2014/06/may-2014-ev-registrations/">latest figures</a> show a spectacular increase of some 121% on pure electric car sales from this time last year, with almost 2,000 such vehicles purchased in 2014. But that figure looks weak in comparison with the 1.1m cars sold overall this year – it is in fact just 0.2% of the overall market.</p>
<p>Buyers in other European markets <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/03/uk-electric-car-sales-speed-up">are more positive</a> towards electric cars. In Denmark and the Netherlands, electric vehicles make up 5% of all cars, rising to 20% in Norway where there are more than 35,000 electric vehicles on the road amongst a population of less than 5m. Success in a market like Norway can be attributed less to environmental consciousness than it can <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/motoring-news/saving-money-not-the-environment-is-driving-norways-electric-car-boom-9537737.html">well-advised economics</a>: it’s possible to save up to £1,000 a year running an electric vehicle. </p>
<p>They also get <a href="https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapporter/2013/1276-2013/1276-2013-sum.pdf">a number of benefits</a> including VAT exemption, free car tax, parking and road tolls, as well as various employment tax benefits. In addition, conventional cars (with internal combustion engines) are subject to numerous heavy taxes, including a road use tax and a CO<sub>2</sub> tax that makes Norwegian petrol <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2127644/Worlds-expensive-petrol-hotspots-revealed-Norway-tops-charts--does-Britain-make-ten.html">the most expensive in the world.</a> </p>
<p>Of course, electric cars also receive government incentives in the UK – most notably the <a href="http://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/car-costs.php">purchase cost reduction</a> of up to £5,000 (£8,000 for vans). But even with this the electric options are still <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/money/2012/aug/24/electric-cars-saving-fuel-costs">notably more expensive</a> than internal combustion engine equivalents. The subsidy also seems to affect second-hand car value, which <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/green-motoring/10473637/Why-prices-for-used-electric-cars-are-shocking.html">depreciates markedly</a>. </p>
<p>There is also free car tax, which saves you <a href="https://www.gov.uk/vehicle-tax-rate-tables">up to £470 a year</a>, and exemption from the London congestion charge of £9 a day, though these incentives are also available to many low emission diesel models, and some low emission petrol vehicles too – of course, hybrid electrics are included too.</p>
<p>This rewards system is less favourable in comparison to that in Norway, where the total incentives on offer will amount to <a href="http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/if-subsidies-are-no-panacea-how-incentivize-electric-vehicles-china">roughly half</a> the price of the car. But it is the running costs in the UK that <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/are-electric-cars-practical-what-do-they-save-you-143254815.html">will save the buyer the most</a>, with a difference of £200 a year to power an electric such as the Nissan Leaf versus £1,300 for a similar sized petrol model. However, despite the impressive value here, many will <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/columnists/mike-rutherford/9525189/Electric-cars-the-truth-about-the-cost-and-range.html">be put off</a> by the high purchase costs.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321157/electric-vehicles-2014.pdf">Department for Transport survey</a> highlights how emphasising running cost savings could improve the public attitude. A massive 85% of respondents saw cost as the most important factor to consider when buying a car. At the same time, a third were put off electric vehicles because of the cost – second only to battery issues around so called <a href="http://www.autocar.co.uk/blogs/new-cars/range-anxiety-still-big-problem-electric-cars">range anxiety</a> and doubts over present technology, which can be overcome with education, experience and improving infrastructure.</p>
<p>Overall, reducing cost was the most popular means to encourage electric vehicle sales, in line with a <a href="http://www.torquenews.com/2250/survey-provides-fascinating-insight-reasons-people-buy-electric-vehicles">US survey</a> in one of the most successful electric vehicle markets in the world, California, where 37% of owners were driven by economic not environmental concerns.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-cost-more-in-the-country-heres-some-ways-around-it-22790">other means</a> to get the benefit from electric vehicles such as car sharing and car clubs, options which have the potential to be more environmentally friendly and cheaper. But we appear wedded to a consumer capitalist car system whereby private ownership is all-important. While <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26448388">commentators may believe</a> we are at a tipping point, significant market penetration of electric cars is still some time away unless these cars and vans become (and are widely seen as) more affordable for ordinary people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28578/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The electric car trend is still to take off in the UK, with drivers largely put off by up-front costs, according to a survey by the Department for Transport. A measly 5% of respondents were thinking about…Daniel Newman, RA, Sustainable Places Research Institute, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.