tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/environment-3387/articlesEnvironment – The Conversation2024-03-28T05:51:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2268092024-03-28T05:51:32Z2024-03-28T05:51:32ZCould spending a billion dollars actually bring solar manufacturing back to Australia? It’s worth a shot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584924/original/file-20240328-21-3cqu7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5104%2C2866&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-view-solar-panel-assembly-line-2204939257">IM Imagery/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">announced today</a> it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those in the solar industry, and guarding against supply chain shocks and geopolitical tension. </p>
<p>The announcement is big. At a stroke, the federal government is proposing to directly invest in manufacturing the main technology Australia will rely on to make its power. By 2050, solar should provide most of our electricity – but only if we have enough panels. </p>
<p>What would that look like? Australia was once a world leader in solar energy technology. But while our solar researchers are still highly regarded, we only have one company commercially manufacturing solar panels. That means the SunShot program will likely start by boosting efforts to make modules here using imported cells and module components, before building out the supply chain to make glass for the panels, aluminium frames and, eventually, the solar photovoltaic cells themselves and the pure polysilicon needed to make them. </p>
<p>If we had a solar manufacturing industry able to make a gigawatt’s worth of panels annually, we <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-bank/apvi-silicon-to-solar-detailed-and-overview-reports/">would create</a> around 750 jobs and meet about 20% of our current demand for solar. More jobs would come as the ecosystem grows, including manufacturing glass and aluminium frames. </p>
<p>Critics will say it’s pointless to compete with China’s dominant renewable energy industry. But as climate change worsens and global efforts to go green intensify, we can’t rely on a single country. The backdrop, of course, is the increasing popularity of <a href="https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/what-is-onshoring/">reshoring</a>, where Western countries use public funding to try to bring back manufacturing from nations such as China, as the United States is aiming to do with its <a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">mammoth Inflation Reduction Act</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<h2>Can we compete with cheap panels?</h2>
<p>In 1983, UNSW professor Martin Green invented the first PERC solar cell (which stands for Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact). <a href="https://solarmagazine.com/solar-panels/perc-solar-panels/">This cell</a> was better at converting sunlight to electricity than previous cells. His invention is now in use in about 90% of the world’s installed solar panels.</p>
<p>Australian researchers have long been at the forefront of solar development. But where we’ve struggled is in commercialisation and manufacturing. The world’s first solar billionaire, Shi Zhengrong, did his PhD at UNSW before returning to his native China <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/eric-knight-shi-zhengrong-sun-king-eric-knight-3363">to found</a> the multinational solar giant SunTech. Even now, many of China’s top solar firms have connections with Australian researchers. </p>
<p>China became dominant in renewables not simply because of its enormous domestic market and a deep manufacturing base. The Chinese government has long funded solar firms to make their products more competitive. </p>
<p>That’s where Australia’s SunShot would come in, by helping to create the market of suppliers needed to make solar panel manufacturing a reality.</p>
<p>Australia wouldn’t be trying to go for global market share, but rather to substitute its own imports. Currently, only about 1% of the millions of panels we install annually are made in Australia. Even so, as the solar industry surges worldwide, there may well be room for more entrants. </p>
<h2>What would Australian solar manufacturing look like?</h2>
<p>We can’t run before we can walk. Bringing manufacturing back won’t happen overnight. Today’s announcement is short on detail. But we know it draws on work done last year by the Australian PV Institute in a report titled <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/silicon-to-solar-plan-australias-manufacturing-opportunities/">Silicon to Solar</a>, which this article’s lead author worked on. </p>
<p>Realistically, what we’ll have to start with is working with our single existing solar panel manufacturer, Tindo, as well as boosting other market entrants such as the startup SunDrive.</p>
<p>Tindo doesn’t make solar panels from scratch. Instead, it imports cells from overseas and assembles them into modules. </p>
<p>The first step, then, is to grow the market for Australian-made modules using imported products. This is the quickest step in the supply chain to establish.</p>
<p>Then we can begin helping suppliers of other components, such as the special glass to cover the panels, and the aluminium frames. </p>
<p>The next step would be to establish solar cell production lines in Australia and scale them to meet the demand from our own module production lines.</p>
<p>We could then move to the next challenge, turning silicon ingots into the wafers used for cells. Establishing these capabilities in Australia might allow Australia to export these materials to other markets such as the US and Europe.</p>
<p>The final step – and one that will take years and more investment, even if we start planning now – would be to have our own polysilicon factories. A multibillion-dollar factory near Townsville is being planned, with support from the <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/25/quinbrook-to-build-polysilicon-factory-in-australia/">Queensland government</a>.</p>
<p>Turning lower-grade metallurgical silicon into 99.9999% pure polysilicon is hard and expensive. You can’t build a small polysilicon factory – scale is important. But it can be done. The size of the factory needed means most of the polysilicon it produces will need to be exported to regions like the US and Europe. We could begin to substitute polysilicon for exports of coal and gas.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar production line" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584920/original/file-20240328-30-j3heel.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building up our solar manufacturing capabilities will take many steps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/automated-production-line-modern-solar-silicon-47536699">06photo/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What are the benefits?</h2>
<p>The government will <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/solar-sunshot-our-regions">spruik jobs</a> in the regions, especially where retiring coal plants such as Liddell in New South Wales will take jobs with them. </p>
<p>But there are other benefits. We could take better advantage of the talent and research knowhow in Australia to begin building next-generation cells. </p>
<p>If we can kickstart a viable solar industry, it would help us unlock other parts of the green economy. Cheap and plentiful solar power could make it viable to crack water to make green hydrogen or make green steel and aluminium. </p>
<p>Many of these initiatives have to be set in train now to gain the benefits in five or ten years’ time. Today’s announcement is just the start. But in a sun-drenched country, it makes sense to aim for the skies. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-just-laid-out-a-radical-new-vision-for-australia-in-the-region-clean-energy-exporter-and-green-manufacturer-186815">Albanese just laid out a radical new vision for Australia in the region: clean energy exporter and green manufacturer</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Hallam is a senior consultant for ITP renewables and was involved in the ARENA Silicon to Solar report.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiacre Rougieux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What would it mean to bring solar manufacturing back on shore in Australia?Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW SydneyFiacre Rougieux, Senior Lecturer, Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256742024-03-25T19:05:50Z2024-03-25T19:05:50ZIf you’ve got a dark roof, you’re spending almost $700 extra a year to keep your house cool<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584001/original/file-20240325-26-6somxa.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C66%2C4025%2C2969&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Pfautsch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you visit southern Greece or Tunisia, you might notice lots of white rooftops and white buildings to reflect the intense heat and keep residents cooler. </p>
<p>It’s very different in Australia. New housing estates in the hottest areas around Sydney and Melbourne are dominated by dark rooftops, black roads and minimal tree cover. Dark colours trap and hold heat rather than reflect it. That might be useful in winters in Tasmania, but not where heat is an issue.</p>
<p>A dark roof means you’ll pay considerably more to keep your house cool in summer. Last year, the average household in New South Wales paid A$1827 in electricity. But those with a lighter-coloured cool roof <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/content/dam/pdfs/unsw-adobe-websites/arts-design-architecture/built-environment/our-research/high-performance-architecture-research-cluster/2022-08-22282-UNSW-Cool-Roofs-Project-Report-WEB.pdf">can pay</a> up to $694 less due to lower cooling electricity needs. Put another way, a dark roof in Sydney drives up your power bill by 38%. </p>
<p>When suburbs are full of dark coloured roofs, the whole area heats up. And up. And up. This is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">urban heat island effect</a>. In January 2020, Penrith in Western Sydney was the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-suburbs-that-hit-50c-last-summer-20201002-p561by.html">hottest place on Earth</a>. </p>
<p>Cool roofs have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112577">many benefits</a>. They slash how much heat gets into your house from the sun, keep the air surrounding your home cooler, boost your aircon efficiency, and make your solar panels work <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148123013939?via%3Dihub">more efficiently</a>.</p>
<p>State governments could, at a stroke, penalise dark roofs and give incentives for light-coloured roofs. Scaled up, it would help keep our cities cooler as the world heats up. But outside South Australia, it’s just not happening. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="infrared image of housing estate showing dark roofs becoming much hotter than light" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583606/original/file-20240322-18-1dka8v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can clearly see here the difference roof colour makes. On the left, you can see the real view of a new housing estate. On the right, an infrared camera shows you the difference in heat (redder = hotter, green = cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sebastian Pfautsch</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Why won’t state governments act?</h2>
<p>To date, our leaders show no interest in encouraging us to shift away from dark roofs. </p>
<p>In New South Wales, plans to ban dark roofs were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/plan-to-ban-dark-roofs-abandoned-as-nsw-government-walks-back-sustainability-measures">axed abruptly</a> in 2022 after pushback from developers. </p>
<p>The current NSW planning minister, Paul Scully, has <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/basix-pause-to-help-home-buyers-and-builders">now paused upgrades</a> to the state’s sustainability building standards which would have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/nonsense-call-leaves-millions-vulnerable-to-summers-silent-killer/news-story/d4f9221eb33157f8d6df4b6213e4c1e3">encouraged light-coloured roofs</a>. Other Australian states and territories have <a href="https://www.absa.net.au/notes/ncc-2022/">also paused</a> the rollout of new, more ambitious building sustainability standards. </p>
<p>This is short-sighted for several reasons: </p>
<ol>
<li>it costs the same for a light- or dark-coloured roof </li>
<li>owners will pay substantially higher electricity bills to keep their houses cool for decades</li>
<li>keeping the building status quo makes it harder to reach emission targets</li>
<li>dark roofs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.111948">cut how much power</a> you get from your rooftop solar, especially when it’s hot. This is doubly bad, as blackouts are most likely during the heat. </li>
</ol>
<p>At present, South Australia is the only state or territory acting on the issue. Early this year, housing minister Nick Champion announced dark roofs <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/northern-suburbs-housing-hotspots-cooler-future">will be banned</a> from a large new housing development in the north of Adelaide. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-australian-dream-new-homes-in-planned-estates-may-not-be-built-to-withstand-heatwaves-166266">The Great Australian Dream? New homes in planned estates may not be built to withstand heatwaves</a>
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<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>
<p>At present, the world’s cities <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/ghg-protocol-cities">account for 75%</a> of all energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. It’s vitally important we understand what makes cities <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets">hotter or cooler</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="chart showing city design and built infrastructure make cities hotter while trees and proximity to water make it cooler" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583603/original/file-20240322-30-hbnhwz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=634&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These are the main factors making cities hotter or cooler.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-10/faq-10-2-figure-1">IPCC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Brick, concrete, tarmac and tiles can store more heat than grass and tree-covered earth can, and release it slowly over time. This keeps the air warmer, even overnight. </p>
<p>Built-up areas also block wind, which cuts cooling. Then there’s transport, manufacturing and air-conditioning, all of which increase heat. </p>
<p>Before aircon, the main way people had to keep cool was through how they designed their homes. In hot countries, buildings are often painted white, as well as having small windows and thick stone walls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="mykonos greece panorama, white rooftops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583975/original/file-20240325-30-bm2jka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">White rooftops are common in hot regions, such as Mykonos in Greece.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mykonos-greece-panoramic-view-town-cyclades-1916571950">Izabela23/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The classic <a href="https://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/features/list/why-queensland-architecture-is-celebrated">Queenslander house</a> was lifted off the ground to catch breezes and had a deeply shaded veranda all around, to reduce heat. </p>
<p>But after aircon arrived, we <a href="https://archive.curbed.com/2017/5/9/15583550/air-conditioning-architecture-skyscraper-wright-lever-house">gradually abandoned</a> those simple cooling principles for our homes, like cross-ventilation or shade awnings. We just turned on air conditioning instead. </p>
<p>Except, of course, the heat doesn’t go away. Air conditioning works by exchanging heat, taking the heat out of air inside our house and putting it outside. </p>
<p>As climate change intensifies, it makes hot cities even hotter. Heatwaves are projected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081004">be more frequent</a>, including in spring and autumn, while overnight temperatures will also increase. </p>
<p>As cities grow, suburbs can push into hotter areas. The 2.5 million residents of Western Sydney live at least 50km from the sea, which means cooling sea breezes don’t reach them. </p>
<p>Sweltering cities aren’t just uncomfortable. They are dangerous. Extreme heat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102671">kills more people</a> in Australia than all other natural disasters combined. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-sydney-will-swelter-through-46-days-per-year-over-35-c-by-2090-unless-emissions-drop-significantly-177056">Western Sydney will swelter through 46 days per year over 35°C by 2090, unless emissions drop significantly</a>
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<h2>How can we cool our cities?</h2>
<p>We don’t have to swelter. It’s a choice. Light roofs, light roads and better tree cover would make a real difference. </p>
<p>There’s a very practical reason Australians prize “leafy” suburbs. If your street has established large trees, you will experience less than half the number of days with extreme heat compared on residents <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/9/945">on treeless streets</a>. If you live in a leafy street, your home is also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461200299X">worth more</a>.</p>
<p>Blacktop roads are a surprisingly large source of heat. In summer, they can <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-01-24/why-australia-builds-dark-roads-despite-heatwaves-climate-change/103375122">get up to 75°C</a>. Our research shows reflective sealants can cut the temperatures <a href="https://doi.org/10.26183/hstd-bj72">up to 13°C</a>. Some councils <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-01-24/why-australia-builds-dark-roads-despite-heatwaves-climate-change/103375122">have experimented</a> with lighter roads, but to date, uptake has been minimal. </p>
<p>Cool roofs markedly reduce how much energy you need to cool a house. When used at scale, <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/arts-design-architecture/our-schools/built-environment/our-research/clusters-groups/high-performance-architecture/projects/study-on-the-cool-roofs-mitigation-potential-in-australia">they lower</a> the air temperatures of entire suburbs. </p>
<p>The simplest way to get a cool roof is to choose one with as light a colour as possible. There are also high-tech options able to reflect <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778823003614">even more heat</a>.</p>
<p>Soon, we’ll see even higher performance options available in the form of daytime radiative coolers – <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1110">exceptional cooling materials</a> able to reflect still more heat away from your house and cut glare.</p>
<p>Until we choose to change, homeowners and whole communities will keep paying dearly for the luxury of a dark roof through power bill pain and sweltering suburbs.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">Why Western Sydney is feeling the heat from climate change more than the rest of the city</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riccardo Paolini has received funding from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sebastian Pfautsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We could make our hot cities cooler with white roofs and light roads. But progress has been glacially slow.Sebastian Pfautsch, Research Theme Fellow - Environment and Sustainability, Western Sydney UniversityRiccardo Paolini, Associate Professor, School of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260092024-03-21T19:07:53Z2024-03-21T19:07:53ZAlmost a third of Australia’s plant species may have to migrate south if we hit 3 degrees of warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582458/original/file-20240318-16-jmvgyn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cosattler.wordpress.com">Cornelia Sattler</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For ecologists, one of the most pressing questions is to understand how ecosystems will change or adapt as the climate changes rapidly. We are already seeing many species of plant and animal moving uphill and towards the poles in response to higher temperatures. It’s very likely most species will move to track their preferred temperature niche. </p>
<p>But what’s strange is that many species can survive in much broader temperature ranges than their current distribution suggests. We don’t yet fully understand why temperature affects ecosystems so strongly. </p>
<p>To shed light on this puzzle, our <a href="https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/oik.10556">new research</a> used the current range of Australian plants and calculated each species’ minimum and maximum temperature preferences. These data told us how many and what percentage of species are lost or gained when transitioning from, say, a 15°C to a 16°C average annual temperature.</p>
<p>The results were astonishing. In Australia’s wetter east coast, you gain on average 19% more species and lose 14% of species when moving up the temperature gradient by 1°C. In the dry centre, you gain 18% of species and lose 21% of species for every extra degree. </p>
<p>That’s at in our current climate. What will happen if the world warms by 3°C, which we are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">still heading towards</a>? </p>
<p>If we assume the whole flora is trying to track their current climate niche, we would likely see 30% of our plant species in Australia moving south. That would be an enormous shift. Almost one in every three species would change in the natural vegetation around us.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="australian alps, snow and gum trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582463/original/file-20240318-16-ms9410.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plant species are more selective about their temperature niche than you would expect. Many will have to chase colder temperatures south.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.julianschrader.wordpress.com">Julian Schrader</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>What our data show is that even slight natural changes in temperature have an effect on the species occurring in different regions. </p>
<p>Why do most plant species only occur in a narrow band within the wider range in which they can survive? A long-held theory, dating back to the work of Charles Darwin, is that species ranges are determined more by competition as you head towards warmer temperatures.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-seas-get-warmer-tropical-species-are-moving-further-from-the-equator-218676">As seas get warmer, tropical species are moving further from the equator</a>
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<p>In this theory, some species are simply better at finding and using resources than others. These competitive traits are thought to be fine-tuned to work best at specific temperatures. These species outcompete those with lower growth rates or fitness <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.13864">at these temperatures</a>.</p>
<p>Why wouldn’t superior competitors spread everywhere? Their traits are likely only functional under specific, often narrow, temperature bands. As soon as it gets too cold, they can’t grow as efficiently and other species can compete.</p>
<p>This means the southern limit of an Australian species is determined by its tolerance of cooler temperatures. If you were on a road trip from Cape York to Tasmania, you would see new species appearing and tropical species becoming less common and disappearing as you drove south towards the pole. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cOyqieJWlQU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some species can adapt rapidly to changes in their climate, while others cannot.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When the heat is on, do plants have to move?</h2>
<p>Australia’s plant species – especially in the wetter east – tend to be very old. Species with long histories have likely found their ideal temperature niche. </p>
<p>But the climate is heating up rapidly. 2023 was the first full year Earth was 1.5°C hotter <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">than the pre-industrial era</a>. </p>
<p>As temperatures rise, staying put may no longer be possible. More and more species will find themselves <a href="https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(13)00105-5">out of their preferred temperature niche</a>. They either adapt, move or go locally extinct. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="colourful leaves of nothofagus gunnii" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583292/original/file-20240321-16-8c4pk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cold-loving deciduous beech (<em>Nothofagus gunnii</em>) is part of the ancient Antarctic beech family of trees and one of Australia’s only deciduous trees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/autumn-leaf-colors-nothofagus-gunnii-fagus-2029915706">Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01286">evidence</a> so far suggests species will move – if they can. </p>
<p>When species do move, the ecosystems they leave behind and the new ones they move into will change.</p>
<p>We don’t know if all species will be able to move freely down the east coast. Our industrious efforts to make farms, homes, roads and cities have heavily fragmented the natural vegetation. We have converted once-continuous spans of habitats into island-like remnants. </p>
<p>Some species can disperse better and over longer distances between habitat fragments than others. For instance, species with winged or windborne seeds are better dispersers than species with large seeds, which include many of our rainforest species. </p>
<p>The more dispersive species may win the race to secure new climate niches. To avoid some species becoming overly dominant, should we help plant species that don’t spread their seeds well by transplanting seedlings or sowing their seeds? This is an important question for the future to which we don’t yet have an answer. </p>
<p>Our plant species have found their climate niches over millions of years. What our research suggests is that climate change may force a surprising amount of our plants to move.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-will-the-tropics-eventually-become-uninhabitable-145174">Climate explained: will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Schrader does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our plant species are pickier about their preferred temperature range than you would expect. That means many will have to move south, seeking cooler climes.Julian Schrader, Lecturer in Plant Ecology, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251652024-03-20T05:06:52Z2024-03-20T05:06:52ZA battery price war is kicking off that could soon make electric cars cheaper. Here’s how<p>The main cost of an electric vehicle (EV) is its battery. The high cost of energy-dense batteries has meant EVs have long been more expensive than their fossil fuel equivalents.</p>
<p>But this could change faster than we thought. The world’s largest maker of batteries for electric cars, China’s CATL, claims it will slash the cost of its batteries by up to 50% this year, as a <a href="https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/">price war kicks off</a> with the second largest maker in China, BYD subsidiary FinDreams. </p>
<p>What’s behind this? After the electric vehicle industry experienced a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries">huge surge</a> in 2022, it has hit headwinds. It <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/">ramped up faster</a> than demand, triggering efforts to cut costs. </p>
<p>But the promised price cuts are also a sign of progress. Researchers have made great strides in finding <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries">new battery chemistries</a>. CATL and BYD now make EV batteries without any cobalt, an expensive, scarce metal linked to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-miners-die-a-lot-appalling-conditions-and-poverty-wages-the-lives-of-cobalt-miners-in-the-drc-220986">child labor and dangerous mining practices</a> in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. </p>
<p>Economies of scale and new supplies of lithium make it possible to sell batteries more cheaply. And the world’s largest carmaker, Toyota, is pinning its hopes on solid-state batteries in the hope these energy-dense, all but fireproof batteries will make possible EVs with a range of more than 1,200km per charge .</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1761884090913992724"}"></div></p>
<h2>How are battery makers cutting costs?</h2>
<p>The largest market for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is China. But demand for EVs here has eased off, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2a9f1dae-ddc4-4214-900d-c763208e9a45">dropping from</a> a 96% surge in demand in 2022 to a 36% rise in 2023. </p>
<p>As a result, battery giant CATL has seen its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-catl-posts-first-profit-fall-since-q2-2022-2024-03-15/#:%7E:text=CATL's%20profit%20for%20the%20October,the%20whole%20of%20last%20year.">profits fall</a> for the first time in almost two years. </p>
<p>One of the best ways to create more demand is to make your products cheaper. That’s what’s behind the cost-cutting promises from CATL and BYD. </p>
<p>You might wonder how that’s possible. One of the key challenges in shifting to battery-electric cars is where to get the raw materials. The electric future rests on viable supply chains for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, copper, cobalt and rare earth elements. </p>
<p>Until recently, the main EV battery chemistry has been built on four of these, lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt. These are also known as NMC batteries. </p>
<p>If you can avoid or minimise the use of expensive or controversial minerals, you can cut costs. That’s why Chinese companies such as CATL have all but monopolised the market on another chemistry, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. These batteries are cheaper, as they have no cobalt. They have other benefits too: a longer usable life and less risk of fire than traditional lithium battery chemistries. The downside is they have lower capacity and voltage. </p>
<p>The recent price cuts come from a deliberate decision to use abundant earth materials such as iron and phosphorus wherever possible. </p>
<p>What about lithium? Prices of lithium carbonate, the salt form of the ultra light silvery-white metal, shot up sixfold between <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-price-slide-deepens-china-battery-giant-bets-cheaper-inputs-2023-02-28">2020 and 2022</a> in China before falling last year. </p>
<p>Despite this, battery prices have <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-prices/">kept falling</a> – just not by as much as they otherwise would have. </p>
<p>The world’s huge demand for lithium has led to strong growth in supply, as miners scramble to find new sources. CATL, for instance, is spending A$2.1 billion on lithium extraction plants <a href="https://batteryjuniors.com/2023/06/19/catl-investment-bolivian-lithium">in Bolivia</a>. </p>
<p>Growth in lithium supply <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-price-slide-deepens-china-battery-giant-bets-cheaper-inputs-2023-02-28/">is projected</a> to outpace demand by 34% both this year and next, which should help stabilise battery prices. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="bolivia salt flats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/583043/original/file-20240320-26-grg01y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bolivia’s salt flats are a rich source of lithium, though its extraction has come with environmental concerns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worlds-largest-salt-flat-salar-de-317843843">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Battery options are multiplying</h2>
<p>China’s battery makers have cornered the market in lithium iron phosphate batteries. But they aren’t the only game in town. </p>
<p>Tesla electric cars have long been powered by batteries from Japan’s Panasonic and South Korea LG. These batteries are built on the older but well established NMC and lithium nickel cobalt aluminate oxide (NCA) chemistries. Even so, the American carmaker is <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/587455/batteries-tesla-using-electric-cars/">now using</a> CATL’s LFP batteries in its more affordable cars. </p>
<p>The world’s largest carmaker, Toyota, has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/01/toyota-chief-executive-faces-electric-vehicle-reality/">long been sceptical</a> of lithium-ion batteries and has focused on hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles instead. </p>
<p>But this is changing. Toyota is now focused heavily on making <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/04/solid-state-batteries-inside-the-race-to-transform-the-science-of-electric-vehicles">solid-state batteries</a> a reality. These do away with liquid electrolytes to transport electricity in favour of a solid battery. In September last year, the company <a href="https://electrek.co/2023/06/13/toyota-claims-solid-state-ev-battery-tech-breakthrough/">announced a breakthrough</a> which it claims will enable faster recharging times and a range of 1,200km before recharge. If these claims are true, these batteries would effectively double the range of today’s topline EVs. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/petrol-pricing-and-parking-why-so-many-outer-suburban-residents-are-opting-for-evs-225565">Petrol, pricing and parking: why so many outer suburban residents are opting for EVs</a>
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<p>In response, China’s battery manufacturers and government are <a href="https://kr-asia.com/catl-byd-others-unite-in-china-for-solid-state-battery-breakthrough">working to catch up</a> with Toyota on solid-state batteries. </p>
<p>Which battery chemistry will win out? It’s too early to say for electric vehicles. But as the green transition continues, it’s likely we’ll need not just one but many options. </p>
<p>After all, the energy needs of a prime mover truck will be different to city runabout EVs. And as electric aircraft go from dream to reality, these will need different batteries again. To get battery-electric aircraft off the ground, you need batteries with a huge power density. </p>
<p>The good news? These are engineering challenges which can be overcome. Just last year, CATL announced a pioneering <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/21/catl-launches-500-wh-kg-condensed-matter-battery/">“condensed matter” battery</a> for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-05-03/catl-announces-battery-to-make-electric-aviation-possible/102289310">electric aircraft</a>, with up to three times the energy density of an average electric car battery. </p>
<p>All the while, researchers are pushing the envelope even further. A good electric car might have a battery with an energy density of 150–250 watt-hours per kilogram. But the <a href="https://newatlas.com/energy/highest-density-lithium-battery/#:%7E:text=The%20battery%20tested%20at%20711.3,off%20any%20form%20of%20commercialization.">record in the lab</a> is now over 700 watt-hours/kg. </p>
<p>This is to say nothing of the research going into still other battery chemistries, from <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/04/1066141/whats-next-for-batteries/">sodium-ion to iron-air</a> to <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/liquid-metal-battery">liquid metal</a> batteries. </p>
<p>We are, in short, still at the beginning of the battery revolution. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-sodium-ion-batteries-could-make-electric-cars-cheaper-207342">How sodium-ion batteries could make electric cars cheaper</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s two largest EV battery makers are pledging to slash the cost of their batteries this year. Behind the pledge is a cost war – and new battery chemistries.Muhammad Rizwan Azhar, Lecturer, Edith Cowan UniversityWaqas Uzair, Research associate, Edith Cowan UniversityYasir Arafat, Senior research associate, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252772024-03-19T19:42:37Z2024-03-19T19:42:37ZEven far from the ocean, Australia’s drylands are riddled with salty groundwater. What can land managers do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580832/original/file-20240310-25-gs1bb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C11%2C7464%2C4023&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nik Callow</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 1890s, railway engineers noticed river water used by steam locomotives <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/managing-dryland-salinity/history-salinity-western-australia-%E2%80%93-salty-bunch-dates">started to become salty</a> when surrounding land was cleared for agriculture.</p>
<p>Over the next decades, the problem worsened. In 1917, a Royal Commission in Western Australia <a href="http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/intranet/libpages.nsf/WebFiles/RC+1917/$FILE/0002006.pdf">dismissed the threat</a> from salt and instead promoted more clearing of land. </p>
<p>Ignoring the problem didn’t solve it. Salt water began rising from below in many new agricultural regions. Crops could not use this salty water. In March 1924 – a century ago this month – the railway engineer W.E. Wood published the <a href="https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/page/46488592#page/73/mode/1up">first scientific paper</a> on the causes of salinity in Australia. </p>
<p>Wood concluded land clearing was causing groundwater levels to rise, bringing salt stored underground to the surface. He correctly proposed the salt in this region had come from the oceans, after evaporated seawater with residual salt <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/sr/sr9760319">fell as rain</a>. </p>
<p>In 2002, our last comprehensive national estimate put <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4615.0#:%7E:text=Farms%20primarily%20involved%20with%20the,land%20showing%20signs%20of%20salinity.">salinity-affected land at around 1.75 to 2 million hectares</a> – about 7.5 times the size of the Australian Capital Territory.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="salt crust on ground western australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582704/original/file-20240319-22-tabhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Salt crusts can form once shallow ponds evaporate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wide-open-plain-view-dry-salt-391820593">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What is dryland salinity?</h2>
<p>Salt is a natural part of our oceans. Some parts of the land have plenty of salt and are naturally saline. Salt lakes are part of <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/exhibitions/songlines">traditional songlines</a>. Globally, we also find salted earth where former inland seas have deposited salt and where irrigation has concentrated salt in the soil.</p>
<p>But other areas have become salty due to land clearing. This is dryland salinity. When deep-rooted trees and shrubs are present, they use most of the rainfall. Very little is left over to leak down into the groundwater. </p>
<p>When trees and shrubs are cut down to make way for farmland, more rain permeates the earth. This mixes with naturally salty groundwater and rises to the surface where it can damage plants and infrastructure.</p>
<p>Plants such as samphire are salt-tolerant and can live in salt lakes. Saltbush can absorb salty water and get rid of the salt by expelling it onto the outside of its leaves. But most plants can’t do this. Absorbing salt water will damage or kill them. </p>
<p>The cruel irony of dryland salinity is that plants can die in dry landscapes from there being too much water.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="eroded landscape and dead trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582701/original/file-20240319-24-hr02pz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">After dryland salinity killed these trees, serious erosion can begin. This image is of a mesa landscape west of Charters Towers in northern Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CSIRO_ScienceImage_4090_Dryland_salinity_has_induced_serious_hillslope_gully_and_sheet_erosion_at_base_of_Mesa_landscape_just_west_of_Charters_Towers_Northern_QLD.jpg">CSIRO/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The long search for solutions</h2>
<p>In Australia, dryland salinity is worst in southwest Western Australia, as well as the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/climate-and-river-health/water-quality/salinity">southern and western reaches</a> of the Murray-Darling Basin. </p>
<p>We didn’t begin trying to fix the problem in earnest until the 1950s, when state-based <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/soil-and-land-conservation-council">Soil and Land Conservation</a> services started tackling salinity in Australia. </p>
<p>The 1990s saw the first nationally coordinated efforts through the <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/natural-resources/salinity">National Dryland Salinity Program</a>. This drew together farmers, community groups, <a href="https://nrmregionsaustralia.com.au/what-is-nrm/nrm_regional_model/">natural resource management organisations</a>, universities and government agencies such as CSIRO. <a href="https://data.wa.gov.au/land-monitor">Satellites</a> gave us a better understanding of the true extent of the problem, <a href="https://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/4615.0Main%20Features12002?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=4615.0&issue=2002&num=&view=">estimated to affect</a> around 20,000 farms.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, we no longer have a coordinated national approach. Government investments have shifted to focus on equally complex challenges such as improving water quality in <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/parks-heritage/great-barrier-reef/protecting/our-investments">Great Barrier Reef catchments</a> and trying to save <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened">threatened species</a> from extinctions. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-always-wondered-why-is-the-sea-salty-83489">I have always wondered: why is the sea salty?</a>
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<h2>Saltbush, not ponds</h2>
<p>So what works against dryland salinity? Researchers have found some <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/soil-salinity/managing-dryland-salinity-south-west-western-australia">practical and economic solutions</a>.</p>
<p>Revegetating the landscape can work, but requires trees, shrubs and plantations to cover <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/stream-salinity-status-and-trends-south-west-wa">two-thirds of a cleared catchment</a> to manage a problem affecting a much smaller area. This is very expensive, and doesn’t work well with existing farms or for regional communities.</p>
<p>The most widely adopted methods of dealing with salt are based on adaptation, such as planting species <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/soil-salinity/saltbushes-dryland-salinity-management-western-australia">such as river and old man saltbush</a> on saline land and areas around it. Livestock can eat the leaves, and saltbush species are excellent at living in salty soils. </p>
<p>Other developing options include pumping up brackish groundwater and turning it into high-quality water through <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/water-management/groundwater-desalination-farms-western-australia">micro-desalination</a>. </p>
<p>Engineering solutions such as pumping out salty water and <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/water-management/deep-drainage-groundwater-drains-salinity-management-western-australia">deep drainage</a> run into problems with salt disposal, cost and challenges with clay soils, which do not drain well. </p>
<p>Subsurface drains in sandier soils near the surface can reduce waterlogging and salinity, and also increase crop productivity. </p>
<p>In areas prone to dryland salinity, reducing pooling of water reduces the salinity of water <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/24/717/2020/">flowing into ecosystems downstream</a>. This means landscape rehydration strategies such as natural sequence farming, which deliberately slow and pond water, can <a href="https://library.dpird.wa.gov.au/lr_consultrpts/11/">actually make salinity worse</a> in older, weathered landscapes.</p>
<h2>Less rain but still salinity</h2>
<p>The scale of the salinity challenge is further demonstrated by the impact of climate change.</p>
<p>Since 1970, annual rainfall has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi?map=rain&area=aus&season=0112&period=1970">fallen across Australia</a> by about 10–15%, particularly in Victoria and southwest Western Australia. This change in climate has <a href="https://www.watercorporation.com.au/Our-water">impacted drinking water supplies</a> in WA, forcing an increasing reliance on desalination.</p>
<p>You might expect groundwater levels to also potentially drop. But for many areas such as south-western WA and the <a href="https://www.waterquality.gov.au/issues/salinity">Murray Darling Basin</a>, groundwater levels are actually still rising even as rainfall declines, due to the ongoing impact of historic land clearing.</p>
<p>A key lesson we have learned from the long fight against dryland salinity is it’s very hard to create profitable farms which mimic the original natural systems. </p>
<h2>The fight against salinity continues</h2>
<p>Salinity still <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/soil-salinity/dryland-salinity-western-australia-0">affects millions of hectares</a> of agricultural land across Australia, driven by the processes described 100 years ago. An award for excellence in salinity research named after railway engineer W.E. Wood was awarded five times in the early 2000s, and will return in 2024 to mark the <a href="https://www.uwaceep.org/wood-award">centenary of his paper</a>.</p>
<p>We’ve learned a lot about dryland salinity in a century, but the search continues for viable methods of combating or adapting to the salt below.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-south-west-a-hotspot-for-wildlife-and-plants-that-deserves-world-heritage-status-54885">Australia's south west: a hotspot for wildlife and plants that deserves World Heritage status</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nik Callow has received salinity-related funding as an employee of The University of Western Australia and previously when working for the WA Government Department of Food and Agriculture. He is a director of the Centre for Water and Spatial Science at UWA that receives private, industry and public funding to undertake research on salinity and water resources.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Pannell received salinity-related funding from the Grains Research and Development Corporation, the CRC for Plant-Based Management of Dryland Salinity, the Future Farm Industries CRC, the Australian Research Council, and the University of Western Australia. He was a member of a Ministerial Taskforce on salinity in 2001, the Salinity Investment Framework committee for the Western Australian Government, and various other salinity-related committees. He was the fifth winner of the W.E. Wood Award for Salinity Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ed Barrett-Lennard is Senior Principal Soil Scientist in the Western Australian Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and Professorial Fellow at Murdoch University. He has previously received research funding through the CRC for Plant-Based Management of Dryland Salinity and the Future Farm Industries CRC. He currently receives funding for salinity research through the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. He was fourth winner of the W.E. Wood Award for salinity research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard George works for the West Australian Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development. He was second winner of the W.E. Wood Award for salinity research</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>I previously worked for CSIRO 1988-2014 and in 1999 was the first recipient of the W.E.Wood Award for Salinity Research.</span></em></p>We’ve known about dryland salinity for a century. But while we’ve made progress, the problem hasn’t yet been solved.Nik Callow, Associate Professor - Geography, The University of Western AustraliaDavid Pannell, Professor and Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy, The University of Western AustraliaEd Barrett-Lennard, Professorial fellow, Murdoch UniversityRichard George, Adjunct professor, Murdoch UniversityTom Hatton, Adjunct professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2238362024-03-19T12:23:06Z2024-03-19T12:23:06ZHow ghost streams and redlining’s legacy lead to unfairness in flood risk, in Detroit and elsewhere<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580202/original/file-20240306-26-nqkhke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Detroit River inundated Detroit's Jefferson-Chalmers neighborhood in 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/HighWaterDetroitFlooding/35df93ae560e4e13912b5f36456d2e8d/photo?Query=detroit%20flood&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=74&currentItemNo=18">AP/Corey Williams</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2021, metro Detroit was hit with a rainstorm so severe that President Joe <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/15/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves-michigan-disaster-declaration/">Biden issued a major disaster declaration</a> at state officials’ request. </p>
<p>Nearly 8 inches of rain fell within 24 hours, closing every major freeway and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2YshMbUeo0">causing massive damage to homes and businesses</a>. The storm was of a severity historically seen in Detroit every 500 to 1,000 years. </p>
<p>But over the past decade, the region has experienced <a href="https://grist.org/cities/how-many-500-year-floods-must-detroit-endure-in-a-decade/">several other storms only slightly less destructive</a>, one <a href="https://www.freep.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2023/08/24/storms-bring-metro-detroit-heavy-rains-flooding/70669298007/">in August 2023</a>.</p>
<p>As the planet warms, severe rains – and the flooding that follows – may become even more intense and frequent in cities like Detroit that have aging and undersized stormwater infrastructure. These extreme events put enormous pressure on communities, but <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flooding-disproportionately-harms-black-neighborhoods/">low-income urban neighborhoods tend to suffer the most</a> </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qyHbWY0AAAAJ&hl=en">geomorphologist at the University of Michigan-Dearborn</a> specializing in urban environments, water, historical mapping and flood-risk equity.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2023.100134">recent research</a>, conducted with graduate students <a href="https://medicine.umich.edu/dept/pain-research/catherine-sulich">Cat Sulich</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RQkzvOQAAAAJ&hl=en">Atreyi Guin</a>, has identified a hidden contributor to flooding in older, low-income neighborhoods that have seen a lack of investment: ghost streams and wetlands.</p>
<p>Although we studied Detroit, our research has implications for cities across the United States.</p>
<h2>Historic decisions have an impact today</h2>
<p>Ghost streams and wetlands are waterways that previously existed but, as urban areas built up, were either buried below the surface or filled in to support development. Detroit has removed more than <a href="https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/A_century_of_stream_burial_in_Michigan_USA_cities/3483827/1">85% of the total length of streams</a> that existed in 1905. Most major cities in the United States and Europe have removed similar numbers of streams. </p>
<p>Detroit is also a city deeply <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/redlining/detroit">affected by redlining</a> – <a href="https://metropolitics.org/Before-Redlining-and-Beyond.html">a now-outlawed practice</a> once used by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0096144203029004002">Home Owners’ Loan Corporation</a>, a government-sponsored corporation that was created as part of the New Deal, that graded neighborhoods on perceived financial risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The 1939 Home Owners' Loan Corporation map of metropolitan Detroit showing redlined areas in the inner city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580178/original/file-20240306-27-ji0i6b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1939 Home Owners’ Loan Corporation map of metropolitan Detroit shows formerly redlined areas that now experience disproportionate flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/davidwilson1949/50077016761">David Wilson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>People living in communities labeled as “high risk” were disproportionately people of color, immigrants and residents of lower socioeconomic status and were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2024.2321226">systematically denied loans and opportunities to build generational wealth</a>. </p>
<p>These neighborhoods received <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2021.1888702">fewer community investments</a>, including interventions such as stormwater infrastructure and landscape modification, than did higher-wealth neighborhoods. </p>
<p>We looked at whether these decades-old decisions have had any impact on flood risk today and learned that they do.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2023.100134">this study</a>, we correlated present-day flood risk in metro Detroit with former Home Owner’s Loan Corporation boundaries’ grades. Flood risk was mapped using the <a href="https://firststreet.org/research-library/flood-model-methodology">First Street Foundation’s Flood Factor</a>, which scores every parcel in the U.S. on a scale of minimal (1) to extreme (10). </p>
<p>We then correlated flood risk to the presence of ghost streams and wetlands, which we extracted from old topographic maps from the United States Geological Survey. The goal was to determine whether a history of waterway burial and/or redlining influenced the overall flood risk of communities today.</p>
<p>We found that flood risk was disproportionately distributed, with historically redlined neighborhoods bearing the greatest brunt of flood risk.</p>
<p>Residents living in communities that were graded as “hazardous” (D) or “declining” (C) in the 1940s are today more susceptible to flood risk than the more affluent A and B communities. Over 95% of parcels classified at extreme flooding risk occur in C and D communities, with less than 4% in A and B communities. </p>
<p>Flood risk increases with the presence of ghost streams and wetlands, with C and D communities having a higher risk. In C communities, the presence of a ghost wetland increases flood risk tenfold, while ghost rivers also increase risk, although by a smaller amount. </p>
<p>The percent of properties in D-graded communities that are located adjacent to the 32-mile-long Detroit River and classified at extreme or severe flood risk is 99.9% if they have ghost wetlands or 95% if they have ghost rivers. </p>
<p>In other words, the combined history of redlining and landscape alteration may still contribute to increased flood risk today. When communities received poor grades, banks, lenders and municipalities neglected those areas’ stormwater infrastructure.</p>
<h2>Invest resources where the risk is greatest</h2>
<p>If communities want to protect residents from flooding, it’s crucial for them to map and understand their “hidden hydrology.” Few cities have the data to inform residents that they are at greater flood risk because they are living on a ghost wetland or river. </p>
<p>In Detroit, residents of most of the neighborhoods that show a major to extreme flood risk are not required to purchase flood insurance because they are not near an active river. This means residents are unknowingly at risk.</p>
<p>Another benefit to mapping ghost wetlands and rivers is that stormwater management is most effective if it follows natural pathways and processes. </p>
<p>Stormwater engineers frequently refer to this as “nature-based interventions” or “green stormwater infrastructure.” </p>
<p>During a flood, water occupies the lowest areas of a landscape, such as an abandoned stream valley or filled wetland. Those low areas are a good place to build green stormwater infrastructure, such as rain gardens that absorb water or <a href="https://www.asla.org/bioswales.aspx">bioswales</a> that convey moving water. </p>
<p>Some solutions can reflect culture or embrace art: Detroit’s <a href="https://www.thewright.org/">Charles H. Wright Museum of African American History</a> installed <a href="https://detroitstormwater.org/projects/chw-sankofa-porous-pavers-project">permeable pavers</a> with a unique West African-inspired design to minimize and manage floodwater following major flooding in Detroit in 2014. </p>
<p>In my view, marginalized communities need to have a strong voice in the search for solutions. Discrimination against these communities helped create the current problem. Listening to them now is key to both minimizing flood damage and beginning to right a historical injustice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Napieralski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mapping where water once flowed is important for managing flood risk today in Detroit and elsewhere.Jacob Napieralski, Professor of Geology, University of Michigan-DearbornLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172732024-03-18T02:28:19Z2024-03-18T02:28:19ZEven as the fusion era dawns, we’re still in the Steam Age<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582432/original/file-20240318-30-py4kah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C36%2C5925%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/steam-turbine-rotor-1008297052">SmartS/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Steam locomotives clattering along railway tracks. Paddle steamers churning down the Murray. Dreadnought battleships powered by steam engines. </p>
<p>Many of us think the age of steam has ended. But while the steam engine has been superseded by internal combustion engines and now electric motors, the modern world still relies on steam. Almost all thermal power plants, from coal to nuclear, must have steam to function. (Gas plants usually do not).</p>
<p>But why? It’s because of something we discovered millennia ago. In the first century CE, the ancient Greeks invented the aeolipile – a steam turbine. Heat turned water into steam, and steam has a very useful property: it’s an easy-to-make gas that can push. </p>
<p>This simple fact means that even as the dream of fusion power <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a46973142/nuclear-fusion/">creeps closer</a>, we will still be in the Steam Age. The first commercial fusion plant will rely on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/magnetic-fusion-confinement-with-tokamaks-and-stellarators#:%7E:text=While%20tokamaks%20are%20better%20at,a%20prospective%20fusion%20energy%20plant">cutting-edge technology</a> able to contain plasma far hotter than the sun’s core – but it will still be wedded to a humble steam turbine converting heat to movement to electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="inside a fusion torus" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582437/original/file-20240318-30-bqmy57.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even high-tech fusion plants will use steam to produce electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JET_vessel_internal_view.jpg">EUROfusion/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are we still reliant on steam?</h2>
<p>Boiling water takes a significant amount of energy, the highest by far of the common liquids we’re familiar with. Water takes about 2.5 times more energy to evaporate than ethanol does, and 60% more than ammonia liquids. </p>
<p>Why do we use steam rather than other gases? Water is cheap, nontoxic and easy to transform from liquid to energetic gas before condensing back to liquid for use again and again.</p>
<p>Steam has lasted this long because we have an abundance of water, covering 71% of Earth’s surface, and water is a useful way to convert thermal energy (heat) to mechanical energy (movement) to electrical energy (electricity). We seek electricity because it can be easily transmitted and can be used to do work for us in many areas. </p>
<p>When water is turned to steam inside a closed container, it expands hugely and increases the pressure. High pressure steam can store huge amounts of heat, as can any gas. If given an outlet, the steam will surge through it with high flow rates. Put a turbine in its exit path and the force of the escaping steam will spin the turbine’s blades. Electromagnets convert this mechanical movement to electricity. The steam condenses back to water and the process starts again. </p>
<p>Steam engines used coal to heat water to create steam to drive the engine. Nuclear fission splits atoms to make heat to boil water. Nuclear fusion will force heavy isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) to fuse into helium-3 atoms and create even more heat – to boil water to make steam to drive turbines to make electricity. </p>
<p>If you looked only at the end process in most thermal power plants – coal, diesel, nuclear fission or even nuclear fusion – you would see the old technology of steam taken as far as it can be taken. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-decades-of-research-are-still-needed-before-fusion-can-be-used-as-clean-energy-196758">Nuclear fusion breakthrough: Decades of research are still needed before fusion can be used as clean energy</a>
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<p>The steam turbines driving the large electrical alternators which produce 60% of the world’s electricity are things of beauty. Hundreds of years of metallurgical technology, design and intricate manufacturing has all but perfected the steam turbine.</p>
<p>Will we keep using steam? New technologies produce electricity without using steam at all. Solar panels rely on incoming photons hitting electrons in silicon and creating a charge, while wind turbines operate like steam turbines except with wind blowing the turbine, not steam. Some forms of energy storage, such as pumped hydro, use turbines but for liquid water, not steam, while batteries use no steam at all. </p>
<p>These technologies are rapidly becoming important sources of energy and storage. But steam isn’t going away. If we use thermal power plants, we’ll likely still be using steam. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="steam turbine in power plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582429/original/file-20240318-28-uxd635.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Thermal power plants rely on giant steam turbines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industry-installations-power-turbines-49207051">rtem/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why can’t we just convert heat to electricity?</h2>
<p>You might wonder why we need so many steps. Why can’t we convert heat directly to electricity? </p>
<p>It is possible. Thermo-electric devices are already in use in satellites and space probes. </p>
<p>Built from special alloys such as lead-tellurium, these devices rely on a temperature gap between hot and cold junctions between these materials. The greater the temperature difference, the greater voltage they can generate. </p>
<p>The reason these devices aren’t everywhere is they only produce direct current (DC) at low voltages and are between 16–22% efficient at converting heat to electricity. By contrast, state of the art thermal power plants are up to 46% efficient. </p>
<p>If we wanted to run a society on these heat-conversion engines, we’d need large arrays of these devices to produce high enough DC current and then use inverters and transformers to convert it to the alternating current we’re used to. So while you might avoid steam, you end up having to add new conversions to make the electricity useful.</p>
<p>There are other ways to turn heat into electricity. High temperature solid-oxide fuel cells have been under development <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/solid-oxide-fuel-cells">for decades</a>. These run hot, at between 500–1,000°C, and can burn hydrogen or methanol (without an actual flame) to produce DC electricity. </p>
<p>These fuel cells are up to 60% efficient and potentially even higher. While promising, these fuel cells are not yet ready for prime time. They have expensive catalysts and short lifespans due to the intense heat. But progress is <a href="https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/07/20230713-bosch.html">being made</a>. </p>
<p>Until technologies like these mature, we’re stuck with steam as a way to convert heat to electricity. That’s not so bad – steam works. </p>
<p>When you see a steam locomotive rattle past, you might think it’s a quaint technology of the past. But our civilisation still relies very heavily on steam. If fusion power arrives, steam will help power the future too. The Steam Age never really ended. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-power-the-future-elon-musks-battery-packs-or-twiggy-forrests-green-hydrogen-truth-is-well-need-both-191333">What will power the future: Elon Musk's battery packs or Twiggy Forrest's green hydrogen? Truth is, we'll need both</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andreas Helwig receives funding from Federal Government Department of Education SURF and RRC research grants. </span></em></p>In the 19th century, the world ran on steam. In the 21st century, little has changed. Every thermal power plant still relies on steam as a final stage.Andreas Helwig, Associate Professor, Electro-Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245662024-03-14T17:19:12Z2024-03-14T17:19:12ZEight ways to overhaul the UK’s inadequate sewer system<p>The recent surge in public scrutiny over untreated sewage in waterways paints a stark picture of the UK’s ageing sewer network. </p>
<p>Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) are a legacy of a bygone era. Victorian combined sewers, designed to collect both sewage and surface water runoff, are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-62631320">buckling</a> under the pressure. When excess rainwater overwhelms their capacity, overflows are triggered, releasing untreated sewage and rainwater directly into rivers, lakes and the sea.</p>
<p>While CSOs were originally intended as a solution for exceptional circumstances, their frequent activation exposes a deeper truth – the UK’s sewer system is riddled with inadequacies. A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749123022273?via%3Dihub">recent review</a> by my colleagues and I found that fundamental questions surrounding CSOs remain unanswered. For example, we do not know the volume of sewage that is spilled, exactly what it contains (especially in terms of emerging contaminants), and nor do we have a comprehensive view of its impact on the health of people, ecosystems and the economy.</p>
<p>Based on what we do know, however, here are eight ways to overhaul the UK’s sewer system.</p>
<h2><strong>1. Reduce water consumption</strong></h2>
<p>In the 1960s, the average Briton used <a href="https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/The-long-term-potential-for-deep-reductions-in-household-water-demand-report-by-Artesia-Consulting.pdf">85 litres</a> of water per day. Today, that figure has jumped to <a href="https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Water-Company-Performance-Report-2022-23.pdf">146 litres</a>. This translates to a much larger volume of wastewater flowing into an already strained sewer system. By finding ways to prevent this extra water from entering the network in the first place, we could significantly alleviate the pressure on its capacity. </p>
<h2><strong>2. Capture rainwater</strong></h2>
<p>One readily available solution lies in harnessing the power of rainwater, by capturing it through simple devices such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-houses-had-water-butts-it-could-help-with-drought-flooding-and-water-pollution-191469">water butts</a>. This can decrease the volume of water entering the network. Captured rainwater also offers a valuable secondary benefit as a readily available, eco-friendly source of water for tasks including gardening and flushing toilets. </p>
<h2><strong>3. Fix misconnections</strong></h2>
<p>Misconnected pipes pose a hidden threat, occurring when sewage pipes are mistakenly connected to rainwater drains, diverting raw sewage directly into rivers and streams. Conversely, rainwater can also be misdirected into the sewer system, overloading its capacity. <a href="https://www.ciwem.org/news/drain-misconnections">Estimates suggest</a> that between 150,000 and half a million homes have misconnected pipes.</p>
<h2><strong>4. Only flush the three Ps</strong></h2>
<p>The only things which should be flushed down the toilet are pee, poo and paper. But <a href="https://www.dwrcymru.com/en/blog/spot-the-april-fools">strange things</a> have been found in sewers, from adult toys to false teeth and even pet snakes. </p>
<p>However, it is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/producers-urged-to-address-flushable-wet-wipes-labelling">wet wipes</a> that contribute to 94% of sewer blockages. When combined with discarded cooking fats, they can form enormous <a href="https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/modus/built-environment/resilient-infrastructure/anatomy-of-a-fatberg--can-our-sewers-cope-.html">“fatbergs”</a> in sewers. Even so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164912">“flushable”</a> wet wipes can cause considerable issues, due to the time they take to degrade. Blockages cause sewage to back-up and ultimately spill out through CSOs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-a-quarter-of-people-in-the-uk-flush-wet-wipes-down-the-toilet-heres-why-they-shouldnt-203301">Nearly a quarter of people in the UK flush wet wipes down the toilet – here's why they shouldn't</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Feces and wet wipes in a domestic sewer causing a blockage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579604/original/file-20240304-48072-3z44br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wet wipes can build up in sewers and cause harmful blockages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/feces-wet-wipes-domestic-sewer-causing-2153353409">jax10289/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2><strong>5. Use smart technology</strong></h2>
<p>While other utilities have embraced innovative technology, the water sector lags behind. The electricity sector has developed the smart grid – a network of sensors and software that allows for real-time monitoring and optimisation of energy use. By 2022, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64186258d3bf7f7fee268026/Q4_2022_Smart_Meters_Statistics_Report.pdf">31.3 million</a> smart energy meters had been installed across the UK. In contrast, the number of smart water meters remains unknown. </p>
<p>Water utilities are missing out on increased efficiencies. Even standalone smart meters, not integrated into a wider smart system, can lead to a <a href="https://www.thameswater.co.uk/news/smart-water-meter-milestone">17% reduction</a> in water usage, compared with traditional meters. However, this strategy relies on customers’ willingness to have meters; some <a href="https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/home-hub/water-meter">40% of households</a> in England and Wales don’t even have a basic water meter.</p>
<h2><strong>6. Use nature-based solutions</strong></h2>
<p>Achieving the UK’s net zero target by 2050 demands innovative solutions across all sectors, including the sewer system. But traditional approaches to increasing sewage capacity often rely on expanding infrastructure such as large concrete pipes, which come with a significant carbon footprint.</p>
<p>The construction of <a href="https://www.tideway.london/media/5689/tideway-sustainability-report-2022.pdf">London’s Tideway project</a>, a vast combined sewer, generated 768,756 tonnes of CO₂ – roughly 0.19% of the UK’s total emissions in 2022. Replicating this approach across the UK’s 77 most populous urban areas would collectively produce 14.4% of its emissions.</p>
<p>Fortunately, nature-based solutions offer a promising alternative. These low carbon and even carbon-sequestering approaches can effectively manage wastewater and rainwater runoff. Human-made wetlands mimic natural ecosystems to treat sewage, while <a href="https://www.rhs.org.uk/garden-features/rain-gardens">rain gardens</a> and <a href="https://www.susdrain.org/delivering-suds/using-suds/suds-components/retention_and_detention/retention_ponds.html">retention ponds</a> capture rainwater, preventing it from overwhelming the sewer system. </p>
<h2><strong>7. Take the C out of CSO</strong></h2>
<p>Unlike more modern systems, combined sewers act as a mixing bowl for a variety of water sources, collecting everything from rainwater and domestic sewage to industrial runoff. This creates a complex cocktail of potential pollutants, including hazardous chemicals, that can be difficult and expensive to treat effectively at large centralised facilities.</p>
<p>By separating these different sources, the treatment process could be simplified. For instance, industrial wastewater, which can be laden with heavy metals, could be diverted to specialised treatment plants equipped with advanced technologies such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/ultrafiltration">ultrafiltration</a>. This targeted approach would allow for more effective treatment of smaller volumes of wastewater, reducing the burden on the current system. </p>
<h2><strong>8. Decentralise</strong></h2>
<p>The traditional model of transporting all sewage to a central treatment plant should also be reviewed. Decentralisation could see more households using “greywater” (wastewater from showers, sinks and washing machines) for garden irrigation. At a neighbourhood level, communities could treat domestic sewage locally, potentially incorporating natural solutions such as human-made wetlands.</p>
<p>The combination of climate change, population growth and rising water consumption is pushing our Victorian-era sewage system to breaking point. To safeguard our waterways and build resilience for future challenges, a radical rethink is essential, and soon.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Perry previously received funding from Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water to write an independent review on combined sewer overflows as part of his academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UK’s Victorian-era sewer network is at breaking point.William Perry, Postdoctoral Research Associate at the School of Biosciences, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252762024-03-14T05:29:04Z2024-03-14T05:29:04ZLarge old trees are vital for Australian birds. Their long branches and hollows can’t be replaced by saplings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581848/original/file-20240314-16-eeqr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C21%2C3596%2C2374&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When we make roads, houses or farmland, we often find large old trees in the way. Our response is often to lop off offending branches or even <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/perth-council-axes-policy-to-protect-its-urban-forest-over-safety-concerns-20240226-p5f7zc.html">cut the tree down</a>. </p>
<p>This is a bad idea. The more we learn about large old trees, the more we realise their fundamental importance to birds, mammals, insects, plants and other inhabitants. <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Tree_Hollows_and_Wildlife_Conservation_i/hF2sMDVZztIC?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PR7&printsec=frontcover">More than 300 species</a> of Australian birds and mammals need large old trees to live.</p>
<p>Why focus on mature trees? It’s because they have <a href="https://theconversation.com/large-trees-are-essential-for-healthy-cities-183017">many features</a> that younger trees simply don’t have: cracks, hollows, dead branches, peeling bark and large quantities of nectar and seeds. The limbs and leaves that fall on the ground make excellent homes for many small creatures.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320724000685">new research</a> sheds light on the importance of such grand old trees for birds. We used lidar (scanning using lasers) to map small, medium and large tree crowns in unprecedented detail. On average, we found large old trees had 383 metres of the horizontal or dead branches preferred by birds, while medium trees had very little and young trees none. Some old trees had almost 2 kilometres of branches. </p>
<h2>Why are branches so important?</h2>
<p>If we think of long, overhanging branches, chances are we may think “threat”. Some large trees can drop limbs without warning, although some arborists have pointed out the <a href="https://www.rememberthewild.org.au/eucalypt-mythbusting-a-comprehensive-guide/#sub-head-2">threat is overstated</a>. To reduce the risk, councils and land managers may remove the limbs of large old trees.</p>
<p>But if you cut down a 300-year-old river red gum, you can’t simply replace it with a sapling of the same species. It <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/3010/">will take centuries</a> for the sapling to take up the same ecological role as its predecessor.</p>
<p>In our research, we mapped more than 100,000 branches from many millions of laser samples and recorded how birds use branches through years of field observations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-illegal-killing-of-265-trees-on-sydneys-north-shore-is-not-just-vandalism-its-theft-on-a-grand-scale-212844">The illegal killing of 265 trees on Sydney's North Shore is not just vandalism. It's theft on a grand scale</a>
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<p>When we spot a bird using a branch, we can safely infer the bird has chosen it for a reason, whether resting, socialising, feeding, hunting or nesting.</p>
<p>What our data shows is that not all branches are equal. Birds find it easier to perch on horizontal or slightly inclined branches. Branches with few or no leaves offer clear vantage points for birds to land, hunt or see predators. You may have noticed crows and currawongs choosing dead branches for these reasons. </p>
<p>As trees mature, their branches begin to grow horizontally. Some branches may die due to lightning strikes, fire, wind damage, or attacks by insects or fungi, while the rest of the tree continues living. These long-term patterns of growth, decay and random events are necessary to produce the horizontal and dead branches prized by birds. For a large eucalypt, that process can take up to 200 years.</p>
<h2>Mapping the canopy with lasers</h2>
<p>Until recently, it’s been hard to map the tree canopy. Traditional methods rely on researchers visually assessing this vital habitat. But we know eye observations don’t do well at capturing parts of trees <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsfs.2017.0048">such as branches</a>. </p>
<p>That’s where lidar comes in. Lidar sends out laser pulses, which bounce back when they hit objects. By recording the time taken for the light to return, we can build very detailed three-dimensional models. It’s a little like echolocation, but using light rather than sound. </p>
<p>This laser-scanning technology has been used in the jungles of Central America to <a href="https://www.livescience.com/lidar-maya-civilization-guatemala">find the ruins</a> of lost Mayan cities. But it can do much more.</p>
<p>In forests, lidar is now increasingly used to estimate how dense the tree cover is, and how variable. This useful data feeds into how we assess a forest’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-forests-can-store-almost-as-much-carbon-as-tropical-rainforests-98885">ability to store carbon</a>, how much timber is present, and the current fire risk. We can even use it to spot animal pathways. </p>
<p>To get the canopy detail we wanted, we used lidar on the ground rather than from the air, and processed the data with algorithms that can recognise and describe about 90% of branches in even the largest trees. </p>
<p>We mapped trees in an area near Canberra. We chose this area because it represents the plight of <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/65871/2/01_Rawlings_A_Guide_to_Managing_Box_Gum_2010.pdf">temperate eucalypt woodlands</a>, which have <a href="https://www.nespthreatenedspecies.edu.au/projects/conservation-of-box-gum-grassy-woodlands-and-the-threatened-species-within-them">shrunk by up to 99%</a> since European colonisation. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-act-of-god-or-just-bad-management-why-trees-fall-and-how-to-prevent-it-162754">An act of God, or just bad management? Why trees fall and how to prevent it</a>
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<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>The very things that make branches good real estate for birds can make them seem dangerous or aesthetically displeasing to us. We tend to cut dead or long, horizontal branches and leave the living or more upright ones. But for birds, this is a disaster as many <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320715300616">cannot live</a> without such branches. </p>
<p>Young trees are no substitutes for their older counterparts. Planting saplings or installing nest boxes cannot replicate the ecological value of large, mature trees.</p>
<p>We can live alongside large old trees. To reduce the chance of injury or worse from falling limbs, we could use <a href="https://www.foreground.com.au/agriculture-environment/what-good-is-a-dead-tree/">exclusion zones</a>, add artificial supports for branches, and install devices to catch or redirect falling limbs. We can also look at emergency solutions such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-owls-are-losing-their-homes-so-were-3d-printing-them-new-ones-133626">prosthetic hollows</a> on younger trees or even <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097588">artificial replicas</a> of old trees. </p>
<p>We should <a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-city-planning-can-preserve-old-trees-and-the-wildlife-that-needs-them-98632">preserve these trees</a> wherever we can and aim to keep them intact with their complex crowns and dead branches. We should also make sure there is a pipeline of young and medium trees to make sure there will be old trees in the future. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-act-of-god-or-just-bad-management-why-trees-fall-and-how-to-prevent-it-162754">An act of God, or just bad management? Why trees fall and how to prevent it</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225276/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Holland has received relevant funding from the Australian Research Council and the ACT Parks and Conservation Service.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Thompson receives funding from The Australian Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Gibbons receives funding from the Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate of the ACT Government, the Natural Resources Commission, NSW Government and Riverview Projects Pty Ltd.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stanislav Roudavski has received relevant funding from the Australian Research Council and the ACT Parks and Conservation. </span></em></p>We scanned the tree canopy with lasers and found birds much prefer the branches of big old trees.Alex Holland, Researcher at Deep Design Lab and PhD Candidate at Melbourne School of Design, The University of MelbourneJason Thompson, Associate Professor, Faculty of Medicine and Melbourne School of Design, The University of MelbournePhilip Gibbons, Professor, Australian National UniversityStanislav Roudavski, Founder of Deep Design Lab and Senior Lecturer in Digital Architectural Design, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255652024-03-13T03:40:10Z2024-03-13T03:40:10ZPetrol, pricing and parking: why so many outer suburban residents are opting for EVs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581525/original/file-20240313-30-ktn1tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3800%2C2525&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/25-june-2017-sydney-australia-electric-666547621">Anton Ukolov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until now, you might have thought of electric vehicles as inner suburban toys. Teslas and Polestars are expensive, leaving them as playthings for wealthier Australians and out of reach for the mortgage belt. </p>
<p>But that’s no longer the case. As residents in the outer suburbs reel from price rises seemingly everywhere, more and more are turning to electric vehicles (EVs) to slash their fuel bill. </p>
<p>Last year, EV orders for outer suburban residents (43%) overtook inner suburban residents (39%) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/electric-car-sales-in-australia-outer-suburbs-overtake-city/103542014">for the first time</a>. Rural and regional residents accounted for 18% of orders. </p>
<p>Avoiding petrol costs is one reason. But there are other good reasons, from easier parking and charging, to lower maintenance. And as our research into why people buy EVs <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969698922000625">has shown</a>, there’s an even more fundamental reason – car buyers now know more about EVs and feel more familiar with the technology. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="man charging his EV at home" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581521/original/file-20240313-28-3ew87y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The suburban garage or driveway works well with charging your EV at home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-charging-electric-car-outlet-home-1092177395">riopatuca/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Outer suburbs rely on cars</h2>
<p>The further you get from the city centre, the more likely you are to have to drive. Distances are longer and public transport drops off. Research from 2020 shows most outer suburban residents who commute <a href="https://ngaa.org.au/application/third_party/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Jobs%20and%20Commuting%20in%20the%20outer%20suburbs%20-%20Astrolabe%20Research%20Report%202020.pdf">have to travel</a> between 10 and 30 kilometres. Every workday return commute costs these workers about A$36 in car running costs, or $180 a week – and this figure will likely have risen since. </p>
<p>So while the initial upfront cost of an EV may put some people off, others run the numbers on how much they spend on petrol – and how much they would save by going electric. </p>
<p><iframe id="7uA7Q" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7uA7Q/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Petrol prices have <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/war-in-ukraine-and-opec-production-limits-pushed-february-petrol-prices-to-eight-year-high">surged in recent years</a> due to armed conflict in Europe and the Middle East. This affects outer suburban, rural and regional residents the most, given they cover the most distance. </p>
<p>This is a major reason why more outer suburbanites are going electric. Electricity is much cheaper than petrol, especially if you make it yourself with solar. Outer suburban residents are more likely to have solar on their rooftops than inner suburban residents in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/how-rooftop-solar-panels-transformed-energy-in-australia/102987100">Sydney and Melbourne</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar panel rooftops from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581519/original/file-20240313-20-itw8a8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Outer suburban houses with off-street parking can find it easier to charge their EVs – especially paired with solar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/top-down-view-row-residential-homes-2385303707">NorCalStockMedia/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the majority of electric vehicle owners <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files">live 20 to 60km</a> away from their city’s CBD. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/vfacts-2023-best-selling-electric-cars-australia-dec">most popular</a> EVs in Australia last year (Tesla Model Y, Model 3 and BYD’s Atto) can drive between 400 and 500km before needing a recharge. The all-important range has grown substantially in recent years, and now mean suburban residents can commute, shop and go out without worrying about finding a place to charge. </p>
<p>In fact, the outer suburbs are better placed than inner suburbs in terms of charging cheaply. In the inner suburbs, space is at a premium and many houses do not have off-street parking. That makes it hard to recharge your car from your home. But outer suburban homes tend to have off street parking or a garage, which means you can charge cheaply at home. </p>
<p>This is to say nothing of the environmental benefits by avoiding <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/newsroom/news/2023/february/vehicle-emissions-may-cause-over-11,000-deaths-a-year,-research-shows">what comes out of the tailpipe</a> of an internal combustion car: carbon dioxide, PM2.5 particles dangerous to our health, and many other nasties. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-electric-vehicle-numbers-doubled-last-year-whats-the-impact-of-charging-them-on-a-power-grid-under-strain-201478">Australia's electric vehicle numbers doubled last year. What's the impact of charging them on a power grid under strain?</a>
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<h2>EVs versus the cost of living</h2>
<p>At present, many of us are reining in expenses, cutting back on extracurricular activities and putting off holidays to cope with the surging cost of everything – especially mortgages. </p>
<p>It would <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9226055">make financial sense</a> for many of us to switch to EVs to take advantage of much cheaper running and maintenance costs. But the higher up-front cost of EVs has long been a disincentive. </p>
<p>What’s changing now is that cheaper EVs are arriving from the likes of the world’s second-largest EV manufacturer, China’s BYD and other Chinese brands such as MG. Tesla has cut its prices, too. </p>
<p>In Australia, the cheapest EVs now start from A$40,000, though most still cost <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/advice/electric-car-costs-australia">$60,000–$90,000</a>.</p>
<p>The secondhand market is growing too, as government fleet EVs come up for sale and as early adopters buy new cars and sell their old. </p>
<h2>What are governments doing?</h2>
<p>Subsidies, tax credits, and local charging infrastructure are making it easier for residents on the outskirts to transition towards greener transport. </p>
<p>Some state governments are trying to accelerate adoption with a <a href="https://www.racv.com.au/royalauto/transport/electric-vehicles/electric-car-discounts-government-incentives-australia.html">range of incentives</a> for EV owners, from subsidies to cheaper registration. The interest was so strong in Victoria and South Australia that these governments have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/08/victoria-to-scrap-electric-vehicle-subsidies-by-the-end-of-the-month">wound back</a> some subsidies. By contrast, Queensland <a href="https://www.qrida.qld.gov.au/program/queensland-zero-emission-vehicle-rebate-scheme">is offering</a> a generous $6,000 rebate for new EV owners. </p>
<p>At a federal level, the proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-vehicle-efficiency-standard-for-new-cars-cost-or-save-australian-drivers-223334">new vehicle efficiency standards</a> will encourage carmakers to sell more fuel-efficient vehicles. If these standards come in, they will <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-vehicle-efficiency-standard-for-new-cars-cost-or-save-australian-drivers-223334">likely penalise</a> fuel-guzzling cars and make fuel misers cheaper. They will also <a href="https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/docs/what-is-a-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard/#:%7E:text=A%20New%20Vehicle%20Efficiency%20Standard%20(NVES)%20%E2%80%93%20also%20referred%20to,new%20cars%20sold%20each%20year.">likely increase</a> the number of EVs and other zero-emissions vehicles in the Australian market. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-vehicle-efficiency-standard-for-new-cars-cost-or-save-australian-drivers-223334">What would a vehicle efficiency standard for new cars cost – or save – Australian drivers?</a>
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<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Outer suburban residents are buying electric vehicles for very good reasons: financial prudence, practicality and a cleaner future. </p>
<p>Petrol is a substantial expense for many who live in car-dependent suburbs. If you can stop buying it and get the same thing you want – transport – with far cheaper running costs, why wouldn’t you? </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-vehicles-are-suddenly-hot-but-the-industry-has-traveled-a-long-road-to-relevance-219315">Electric vehicles are suddenly hot − but the industry has traveled a long road to relevance</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225565/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Park Thaichon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Electric vehicles have long come at a premium. But as cheaper models arrive, outer suburban residents are taking to EVs to save on petrolPark Thaichon, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247432024-03-07T03:34:32Z2024-03-07T03:34:32ZBig businesses will this year have to report their environmental impacts – but this alone won’t drive change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580340/original/file-20240307-24-6jfhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1690%2C0%2C4539%2C2830&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/open-pit-mine-industry-big-yellow-1521928421">Parilov/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, large businesses in Australia will likely have to begin reporting their environmental impacts, climate risks and climate opportunities. </p>
<p>The final draft of Australia’s new mandatory climate disclosure laws are due any day now, <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2024-466491">following consultation</a>. </p>
<p>These laws are meant to increase transparency about how exposed companies are to risks from climate change, and will require companies to look into and share what impact their activities have on the environment. This, the government hopes, will accelerate change in the corporate sector. </p>
<p>But will it help lower emissions? I don’t think so. We <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-carbon-tax-can-have-economic-not-just-environmental-benefits-for-australia-210380">don’t have</a> a carbon tax, which means many companies have no financial incentive to actually lower their emissions. (The strengthened Safeguard Mechanism applies to about 220 big emitters, but they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy-213874">simply buy offsets</a> and avoid harder change.) </p>
<p>By themselves, climate disclosures will not trigger the change we need. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="car fleet company" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=235&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580341/original/file-20240307-20-cnznkz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A company’s emissions and environmental impact come from many sources, from vehicle fleets to electricity use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scharfsinn/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are these laws being proposed?</h2>
<p>In June 2023, the newly formed <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/groups/international-sustainability-standards-board">International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)</a> released a set of <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s1-general-requirements/">sustainability standards</a> and <a href="https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/ifrs-sustainability-standards-navigator/ifrs-s2-climate-related-disclosures/">climate disclosures</a>. </p>
<p>These standards have influenced Australia’s draft laws. </p>
<p>In planning mandatory corporate disclosures on climate and environment, Australia is following similar efforts overseas. In 2022, the United Kingdom began to roll out mandatory reporting on climate risks and opportunities for the largest UK companies (those with more than 500 employees and A$970 million in turnover). </p>
<p>Once the Australian legislation comes into effect, it will require large companies and asset owners to publish their climate-related risks and opportunities. </p>
<p>In the draft legislation, companies would have to evaluate and report on their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from sources they own or control and from sources such as purchased electricity.</p>
<p>From July this year, the laws would require disclosures from companies with 500 employees, $1 billion in assets or $500 million in revenue. Over time, this would expand to medium-sized companies. From July 2027, companies with 100 employees, $25 million in assets or $50 million in revenue would have to share this information. </p>
<p>Sustainability reports will be subject to external auditing and directors would be personally liable for the accuracy of the disclosures – with one major exception.</p>
<p>For many Australian companies, it’s already proving too hard to account for <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/corporate-value-chain-scope-3-standard">Scope 3 emissions</a> – the greenhouse gas emissions upstream and downstream in a company’s operations, such as the emissions from gas burned after we export it. </p>
<p>As these emissions occur outside a company’s direct control, accounting for them is a complex task costing time and money. Only some companies have voluntarily started to report their Scope 3 emissions in anticipation of future regulatory change.</p>
<p>The draft legislation exempts companies from the need to report Scope 3 emissions for their first year of reporting and proposes limited liability for these disclosures for a fixed three-year period. </p>
<p>This means companies can simply come up with a best-guess estimate, rather than reporting their actual Scope 3 emissions, which can make up <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">65–95% of their overall emissions</a>. In some sectors, such as the integrated oil and gas industry, Scope 3 emissions can comprise more than <a href="https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/scope-3-carbon-emissions-seeing/02092372761">six times the sum of Scope 1 and 2 emissions</a>. Woolworths’ Scope 3 emissions <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/Net-Zero-Integrity%E2%80%93Assesement-of-the-Net-Zero-Pledges-of-Australian-Companies.pdf">account for 94% of emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>What are disclosure laws meant to do?</h2>
<p>You can see why the government is introducing these laws. To nudge corporate Australia towards a greener future, it helps to know what impact your business has – and what risks it is exposed to. It will also be useful for investors.</p>
<p>But it will not drive rapid decarbonisation. Critics have pointed out that reporting and disclosure alone <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01174-8">will not lead</a> to a shift away from carbon-intensive business operations. Disclosures give the appearance of action rather than real action. If there are no stronger policies accompanying, disclosures act as window dressing for global financial markets. </p>
<p>Our existing policies do not require organisations to make genuine changes in terms of their emissions. Unless organisations abandon their reliance on fossil fuels and substantially decarbonise their operations, we are simply not going to get any change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-disclosures-corporations-underprepared-for-tighter-new-standards-study-of-100-companies-reveals-210737">Climate disclosures: corporations underprepared for tighter new standards, study of 100 companies reveals</a>
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<p>These laws also come with a cost. The regulatory burden and compliance costs for Australian companies will not be trivial, especially for companies which haven’t reported on climate or sustainability before. </p>
<p>We already have a shortage of trained <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/australian-auditors-lag-on-climate-risk-disclosure-expert-warns-20200402-p54gfy">reporting, auditing and assurance professionals</a> able to do climate and environment work, following years of minimal action on climate change in Australia. To fix this will require substantial and rapid upskilling. </p>
<p>These costs should give us pause. It’s worth thinking through how much emphasis we place on disclosures to drive change versus policies that would actually drive change, such as mandating that large companies have to reduce their direct emissions 10% a year.</p>
<p>Australian companies can only benefit from these laws if they use the data unearthed by disclosure <a href="https://www.climateleaders.org.au/documents/Scope_3_Roadmap_PUBLISHED.pdf">to rethink</a> how they operate, invest and green their supply chains towards sustainability. This may mean <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999318304619">investing</a> in clean technology, shifting from polluting transport fleets to electric, or reconsidering how they produce their products. </p>
<p>And to do that, of course, companies will need to see supportive government policies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="LNG export ship" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=225&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580344/original/file-20240307-24-9m5bc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Should gas exporters track the scope 3 emissions when their product is burned for power overseas?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-drone-ultra-wide-panoramic-photo-2137586843">Aerial-motion/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>These laws can be useful – but not alone</h2>
<p>Assuming the laws pass, big companies will begin assessing and reporting their emissions and environmental impact from July this year. </p>
<p>In doing so, Australia will align itself with international efforts for more transparency. Requiring companies to scrutinise and disclose their environmental impact will give corporate leaders the data needed to look for greener ways to run their business. But this assumes they have the interest and time to do so. </p>
<p>This isn’t a quick fix for climate change. To be worth the cost, Australia will need to link climate-related financial disclosures to clear policies designed to bring down emissions. </p>
<p>Disclosure policies produce disclosures. Emission reduction policies produce emission reductions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sec-approves-first-us-climate-disclosure-rules-why-the-requirements-are-much-weaker-than-planned-and-what-they-mean-for-companies-224923">SEC approves first US climate disclosure rules: Why the requirements are much weaker than planned and what they mean for companies</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martina Linnenluecke receives funding from the Australian Research Council and from UTS in the form of a Strategic Research Accelerator Grant.</span></em></p>Will it make a difference when companies have to track and report emissions and environmental impact? Only if policies with teeth follow.Martina Linnenluecke, Professor of Environmental Finance at UTS Business School, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219882024-03-05T19:10:34Z2024-03-05T19:10:34ZEver heard of the Maritime Continent? It’s not far from Australia – and channels heat around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579775/original/file-20240305-18-yv55d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C5004%2C3617&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/azure-beach-rocky-mountains-clear-water-670788406">Cocos.Bounty/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Africa, Asia, Australia, Antarctica, North and South America, Europe – and the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/tropics/maritime-continent.shtml">Maritime Continent</a>. </p>
<p>Never heard of the last one? That’s because it’s not a continent made of land. In fact, it’s the largest warm tropical sea in the world, lapping against the shores of Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and smaller countries. </p>
<p>Why call it a continent? The name comes from the way the seas and land in this region interact. This single region is the main heat engine pushing heat around the world. The Maritime Continent is home to large expanses of warm, shallow seas bigger than Australia. Known as the tropical warm pool, these seas – the warmest on Earth – sustain warm sea temperatures and act as a engine for the Earth’s climate system. </p>
<p>As the world heats up under climate change, more heat pours into the seas. That means the Maritime Continent’s warm pool is growing. It’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4">roughly doubled</a> from 22 million (1900-1980) to 40 million square kilometres (1981-2018).</p>
<h2>Why is this area special?</h2>
<p>Start with the sun. The midday sun is mostly directly overhead in the tropics. Incoming radiation from the sun is at its peak along the equator, which bisects Indonesia. In this region, the seas are relatively shallow – the Java Sea, for instance, averages a depth of just 46 metres. Sunlight can penetrate to the seabed and so shallow water depths allow for more efficient heating of the water. As a result, the surface temperatures of this enormous warm pool of water are over 28°C.</p>
<p>Then there’s the wind. The prevailing winds here are the southeasterly trade winds, which blow along the surface of the Pacific near the equator. As they blow, they push the water below, pooling warm water in the western Pacific and around the islands of the Maritime Continent. These waters are usually the warmest oceans in the world. </p>
<p>Heat is energy, and energy makes things happen. Some of the heat leaves the seas and enters the atmosphere in a process known as convection. As the Earth rotates, the rising hot air spins away from the equator towards the poles. In this way, it spreads heat around the planet. The heat also drives evaporation, leading to high humidity rates and making the region climatically unstable. Intense storms driven by convection – rising hot air from the seas – can form at any time of the year. </p>
<p>Land heats and cools faster than water. As the land surface heats up, it can drive the development of convective storms on a near daily basis in some places. Other large storms can form as warm, moist air is blown over terrain and pushed upwards when it hits mountains. </p>
<p>This potent combination of heat, moisture and wind act to transfer huge amounts of heat to the upper reaches of the atmosphere, which then spreads around the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="thousand islands java sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579776/original/file-20240305-24-q8xvjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Java Sea is shallow – and very warm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/thousand-islands-java-indonesia-1486311842">Bryce P/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Keeping a lid on it</h2>
<p>You might not know it, but the atmosphere has a lid of sorts. You and I spend our lives in the troposphere, the lowest part of the atmosphere where ground and air meet. Here, the temperature generally falls as you get higher, which is why mountains are colder. In the stratosphere, by contrast, the air usually gets warmer with height.</p>
<p>Between the troposphere and the stratosphere lies the tropopause. This “lid” acts to keep most clouds and rain closer to Earth. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, the tropopause is about 11km above the city. But the warm, expanding atmosphere of the Maritime Continent pushes the tropopause as high as 18km above the surface. </p>
<p>This means there’s more space for heated and unstable air to rise and give birth to huge and seriously energetic cumulonimbus stormclouds. From here, heat is diverted towards the poles in global air circulation currents within the troposphere. </p>
<p>But when you’re at sea level in the Maritime Continent, you can have a totally different experience. Because so much of the heat rises, low atmospheric pressure develops and the equatorial winds at the surface can be very calm. In the age of sail, sailors called these conditions “the doldrums”. </p>
<p>Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology pays close attention to the Maritime Continent, because it has great influence over our weather – and not just for the tropical north.</p>
<p>When sea surface temperatures change up here, we know changes are coming to Australia’s weather patterns. Like India, northern Australia is monsoonal. Little rain falls during the dry season, April to October. When the wind patterns change in tropical Australia and freshening westerlies converge with the trade winds very late in the year, the monsoon arrives, bringing torrential rain.</p>
<p>It’s not just the north – temperature changes in the tropical warm pool can influence atmospheric pressure systems and drive changes in weather patterns in southern Australia too.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-seas-get-warmer-tropical-species-are-moving-further-from-the-equator-218676">As seas get warmer, tropical species are moving further from the equator</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What does the future hold?</h2>
<p>The Maritime Continent is a weather engine, concentrating heat in warm seas and spreading it around the world. </p>
<p>In recent months, sea surface temperatures around the world are higher than ever recorded, and getting higher still. What will happen to it as more trapped heat pours into the oceans? </p>
<p>Certainly, the warm pool of water unpinning the Maritime Continent will <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/warm-pool-indo-pacific-ocean-has-almost-doubled-size-changing-global">keep expanding</a>, as it has for decades. What that means for us isn’t as clear. </p>
<p>We don’t know yet whether a bigger tropical warm pool will allow more tropical cyclones to develop, or whether it will change <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4">how intense</a> the monsoon will be. </p>
<p>Some research suggests higher sea temperatures can actually dampen down the formation of clouds from convection, which could mean <a href="https://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40562-016-0054-3">regional droughts</a> for countries of the Maritime Continent. </p>
<p>To help find out, I helped other researchers operate an instrument-packed aircraft which flew many measurement missions from Cairns earlier this year, including <a href="https://www.cqu.edu.au/news/1111372/scientific-jet-measures-atmospheric-chemistry">heading for the seas</a> of the Maritime Continent. We measured concentrations of atmospheric molecules. The data we gathered will, we hope, help weather modellers better gauge what hotter tropical seas mean for the world. </p>
<p>This uncertainty means the Maritime Continent is worth watching. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-predicting-the-weather-and-climate-is-even-harder-for-australias-rainy-northern-neighbours-106939">Why predicting the weather and climate is even harder for Australia’s rainy northern neighbours</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hewson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is there really a secret continent to Australia’s north? Not quite. The Maritime Continent is a region where hot seas and islands shape the world’s climate.Michael Hewson, Senior Lecturer Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231532024-03-04T18:25:48Z2024-03-04T18:25:48ZGlobal warming may be behind an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold spells<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575431/original/file-20240213-30-h2gkre.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bradford-uk-02-08-2024-electronic-2423109221">bennphoto / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is already affecting our lives. Scorching summers, more intense heatwaves, longer drought periods, more extended floods, and wilder wildfires are consequences linked to this warming.</p>
<p>One less obvious consequence of global warming is also getting growing attention from scientists: <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/extreme-cold-snaps-could-get-worse-as-climate-warms/#:%7E:text=Many%20studies%20have%20shown%20that,and%20understood%20from%20physical%20reasoning.">a potential increase</a> in the intensity and frequency of winter cold snaps in the northern hemisphere.</p>
<p>Weather phenomena like the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/26/uk-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-as-met-office-warns-of-snow">Beast from the East in winter 2018</a>, the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021">cold spell of Arctic air</a> that reached as <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/17/texas-winter-storm-2021-stories/">far South as Texas in February 2021</a>, or the storm that left <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/world/europe/spain-snow-storm-filomena.html">Madrid</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2021/feb/16/unusually-heavy-snow-blankets-athens-in-pictures">Athens</a> unusually covered in snow for days in early 2021 are becoming more common.</p>
<p>Some of the mechanisms that lead to their occurrence are strengthened by global warming. Key climate mechanisms, like exchanges of energy and air masses between different altitude ranges in the atmosphere, are evolving in ways expected to cause an increase in both the intensity and duration of cold snaps. These link to the behaviour of a region in the high atmosphere called the stratosphere.</p>
<p>Winter cold snaps have major societal impacts, from direct effects on health and loss of life, to effects on transport and infrastructure, surges in energy demand and damage to agricultural resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Acropolis in 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577870/original/file-20240226-21-zie9ae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Acropolis in Athens covered in snow in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/athens-greece-february-16-2021-acropolis-2258307795">Savvas Karmaniolas / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This winter, we have seen these effects over large parts of Europe and the US, with flight cancellations, airport closures, road queues and drivers trapped in extreme cold temperatures. There have also been sharp increases in energy demand to cope with indoor heating, an increase in cold-related hospital admissions and the activation of services needed to assist the most vulnerable.</p>
<p>We need to develop forecasting tools that can predict these events further in advance.</p>
<h2>Polar vortex</h2>
<p>Some of these cold snaps are linked to disruptions in a seasonal atmospheric phenomenon called the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). </p>
<p>In the northern hemisphere, this vortex consists of masses of cold air centred over the north pole, surrounded by a jet of very strong westerly winds between 15-50km above ground. These spinning winds act as a wall and keep cold air confined to the Arctic region, stopping it from travelling to lower latitudes. </p>
<p>Something that can disrupt the vortex is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), when the stratosphere experiences an abrupt increase in temperature due to energy and momentum being transferred from lower to higher altitudes. </p>
<p>When a major SSW occurs, the wall of strong winds around the polar stratosphere can break, allowing cold air to escape the polar vortex and travel down to lower atmospheric altitudes and lower latitudes. When that air approaches the Earth’s surface, significant cold spells can occur.</p>
<p>Even when SSWs are not strong enough to break the vortex, they can weaken it. This can cause polar air circulation patterns to meander further south into lower latitudes, reaching populated areas of North America and Eurasia, instead of staying nearer the north pole. Those areas can then experience temperatures tens of degrees lower than their winter average.</p>
<p>Under climate change, the transfer of energy from the lowest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere to the higher stratospheric layer is changing and seems to be disrupting the polar vortex to a greater degree. A <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/1259/2023/">study has shown</a> that the strength and duration of SSWs in the stratosphere have increased over the last 40 years. This increase is also expected to result in stronger winter cold snaps at surface levels.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Polar Vortex" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579217/original/file-20240301-22-1lzoqr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The polar vortex is a crucial component in cold snaps affecting the Northern Hemisphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Forecasting challenge</h2>
<p>Accurately forecasting these cold snaps is crucial for helping society prepare appropriately for them. Developing computer-based forecasting tools that reproduce realistic interactions between the lower levels of the troposphere and the stratospheric region is an essential step towards this goal.</p>
<p>To correctly simulate the behaviour of the stratosphere and how it interacts with the troposphere, forecasting tools must include realistic descriptions of the abundance and distribution of stratospheric ozone. Ozone influences the interaction of air masses outside and inside the vortex, and therefore also the transport of colder air from higher to lower altitudes.</p>
<p>However, including all the chemical processes that ozone is involved in, at the resolution needed to predict these weather events, is prohibitive in terms of the computing power needed. This is even truer if we want to predict events one season ahead. </p>
<p>My research looks at ways to improve forecasting models to better capture the type of stratospheric behaviour that leads to these cold spells. To do this I have developed alternatives that can realistically simulate processes in the stratosphere, including aspects of ozone chemistry, using less computing power. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/">study I led</a>, we used these alternatives to simulate interactions between the ozone layer, temperature and solar radiation in the global computer model used to produce some of the best weather forecasts in the world.</p>
<p>The experiments we did with this model showed that including this realistic alternative representation of stratospheric ozone led to improvements in simulations of temperature distribution in the stratosphere. This means that it can help provide useful information about triggers of cold spells like SSWs.</p>
<p>Developing and using these alternatives in climate modelling is a significant milestone towards what we call seamless prediction: using the same computer modelling tools to predict both weather and climate. This allows for a more accurate establishment of causal links between climate change and extreme weather events.</p>
<p>A question many may be wondering is if this extreme cold could be counteracting global warming. Unfortunately, not. While this winter has brought days of extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in the northern hemisphere, the current summer in the southern hemisphere has seen some of the hottest days on record for populated areas of Australia, with temperatures of around 50ºC.</p>
<p>Global warming makes extreme weather more extreme, and scientific studies are starting to provide proof that this also applies to extreme winter cold spells. Developing the best possible modelling tools is essential to predict the evolution of extreme weather events in the coming years so that we can be better prepared for them.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beatriz Monge-Sanz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cold snaps can affect everyday services and infrastructure, putting lives at risk.Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Senior Researcher, Department of Physics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234462024-03-03T23:36:20Z2024-03-03T23:36:20ZWhy move species to islands? Saving wildlife as the world changes means taking calculated risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577775/original/file-20240225-16-eqqb33.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C10%2C1400%2C799&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_barred_bandicoot#/media/File:Perameles_gunnii_-_Gould.jpg">John Gould/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The eastern barred bandicoot was once found in abundance across the basalt plains of western Victoria. But habitat destruction and predation by introduced red foxes drove the species to the brink of extinction on the mainland.</p>
<p>Establishing populations in fenced reserves was critical in providing insurance against extinction. To further increase bandicoot numbers to provide long-term security against extinction, we needed more fox-free land.</p>
<p>A bold plan was hatched: move the species to where the predators weren’t. Introduce them to Victoria’s <a href="https://www.penguins.org.au/about/media/latest-news/taking-action-to-find-and-remove-phillip-island-fox-threat/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CA%20combined%20effort%20between%20the,25%20years%20of%20dedicated%20effort.">fox-free</a> Phillip and French islands.</p>
<p>Six years later, the bandicoot made conservation history, as the first species in Australia <a href="https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/wildlife/2022/02/eastern-barred-bandicoot-how-the-little-diggers-rebounded/">to be reclassified</a> from <em>extinct in the wild</em> to <em>endangered</em>. </p>
<p>Why don’t we translocate all endangered species to islands? The technique can be effective, but can come with unwanted consequences. </p>
<h2>The surprising benefits of translocation</h2>
<p>Eastern barred bandicoots are ecosystem engineers. As they dig for their dinner of worms, beetles, bulbs, fungi and other foods, their industrious work <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-little-bandicoot-can-dig-up-an-elephants-worth-of-soil-a-year-and-our-ecosystem-loves-it-132266">improves soil quality</a>, and in turn, the health of vegetation. </p>
<p>So when we translocate threatened species, we can get a double win – a rapid increase in their populations and restoration of lost ecosystem functions.</p>
<p>Australia’s landscapes look very different than they did before European colonisation around <a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing-154077">230 years ago</a>. </p>
<p>Industrialised farming, introduced predators and habitat destruction and fragmentation are driving <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-re-counted-australias-extinct-species-and-the-result-is-devastating-127611">biodiversity decline and extinctions</a>. As species die out, ecosystems lose the vital functions wildlife perform. Without them, ecosystems might not operate as well or even collapse – a little like a poorly serviced car engine. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/losing-australias-diggers-is-hurting-our-ecosystems-18590">Losing Australia's diggers is hurting our ecosystems</a>
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<p>We feel the loss most acutely when we lose <a href="https://theconversation.com/beavers-and-oysters-are-helping-restore-lost-ecosystems-with-their-engineering-skills-podcast-198573">keystone species</a> on which many other species depend, such as oysters and bees. Restoring these functions can improve biodiversity and the sustainability of food production. For instance, encouraging owls to return to farmland <a href="https://kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frym.2023.1182137">can cut</a> the use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mouse-plague-bromadiolone-will-obliterate-mice-but-itll-poison-eagles-snakes-and-owls-too-160995">damaging rodent poisons</a>, as owls eat thousands of mice and rats yearly. </p>
<p>Before colonisation, industrious digging mammals and their soil excavations were <a href="https://theconversation.com/mourn-our-lost-mammals-while-helping-the-survivors-battle-back-36126">extremely widespread</a>. Regrettably, introduced foxes and cats have made short work of many of Australia’s diggers. Six of 29 digging species are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mam.12014">now extinct</a>, including the lesser bilby, pig-footed bandicoot and desert rat-kangaroo. Many others are endangered. </p>
<h2>Could translocation save more species?</h2>
<p>Conservationists have successfully translocated species such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-western-swamp-tortoise-11630">western swamp tortoise</a>, the <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/wildlife/shark-bay-mouse/">Shark Bay mouse</a>, and <a href="https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/255082/quolltranslocation_final.pdf">northern quolls</a>.</p>
<p>New environments don’t necessarily need to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/cats-wreak-havoc-on-native-wildlife-but-weve-found-one-adorable-species-outsmarting-them-132265">predator-free</a>. The eastern barred bandicoot is thriving on Phillip and French Island, in the presence of feral and domestic cats. The key is there are no foxes. </p>
<p>Many islands are now being thought of as conservation arks, able to provide <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wr/wr17172">safe havens</a> for several threatened species at once. Dirk Hartog Island, Western Australia’s largest, is <a href="https://www.sharkbay.org/restoration/dirk-hartog-island-return-1616/#:%7E:text=These%20include%20the%20Shark%20Bay,boodie%20and%20the%20western%20grasswren.">now home</a> to reintroduced western quolls, dibblers, mulgaras and other small mammals, as well as two translocated hare-wallaby species. </p>
<h2>Why is translocation not more common?</h2>
<p>The technique can work very well – but it can also backfire. </p>
<p>In the 1920s, conservationists undertook the first translocation in Australia by moving koalas to Phillip and French Island – the same Victorian islands now a refuge for bandicoots. While this protected koalas <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-once-killed-600-000-koalas-in-a-year-now-theyre-australias-teddy-bears-what-changed-219609">from hunting pressure</a>, koala populations exploded, and the tree-dwelling marsupials ate themselves <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-koalas-are-eating-themselves-out-of-house-and-home-38585">out of house and home</a> in some areas. </p>
<p>In 2012, conservationists began introducing Tasmanian devils to Maria Island, just off Tasmania’s east coast. They wanted to conserve a healthy population free from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-devils-look-set-to-conquer-their-own-pandemic-151842">contagious facial tumour</a> which has devastated their populations. On Maria Island, the devils became <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-22/tasmanian-devils-decimate-wildlife-on-maria-island/100234550">too successful</a>, wiping out the island’s penguin and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320720306935">shearwater</a> populations. </p>
<p>You can see translocations aren’t a silver bullet. We have to carefully consider the pros and cons of any such conservation intervention. Ecosystems <a href="https://theconversation.com/species-dont-live-in-isolation-what-changing-threats-to-4-marsupials-tell-us-about-the-future-200990">are complex</a>. It’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-01298-8">not easy to predict</a> what will happen to an ecosystem if we introduce a species new to the area. </p>
<p>The decision to translocate a species is a value judgement – it prioritises one species over the broader ecosystem. Opponents of translocation <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320711001728?via%3Dihub">question whether</a> we are doing the right thing in valuing efforts to conserve a single species over the innate value of the existing ecosystem. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/so-you-want-to-cat-proof-a-bettong-how-living-with-predators-could-help-native-species-survive-170450">So you want to cat-proof a bettong: how living with predators could help native species survive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s the best approach in future?</h2>
<p>Translocation is not the end goal. Islands cannot support the vast array of threatened species in Australia. </p>
<p>The end goal is to establish and expand threatened species populations on the mainland in fenced reserves before eventually reintroducing them to the wild where they will encounter introduced predators. </p>
<p>Research is being done to explore how we can make this work, such as: </p>
<p>1) <strong>Predator-savvy wildlife:</strong> some native species may be <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13406">able to adapt</a> to living alongside introduced predators – with some help. For example, conservationists have exposed semi-captive bilbies to small numbers of feral cats with the aim of increasing their wariness and ultimately boosting their chances of survival. Results have been encouraging. </p>
<p>2) <strong>Building ecosystem resilience:</strong> we know more intact native ecosystems can reduce the chance of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.01941.x">damage from invasive species </a>. That means re-establishing native ecosystems could boost their resilience.</p>
<p>Moving a species from its home is a bold and risky decision. It’s critical local communities and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ancient-knowledge-is-lost-when-a-species-disappears-its-time-to-let-indigenous-people-care-for-their-country-their-way-172760">First Nations groups</a> are consulted and able to guide discussions and any eventual actions. </p>
<p>For their part, governments, land managers and conservationists must think more broadly about how we might best conserve species and ecosystems in a rapidly changing world. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/threatened-species-recover-in-fenced-safe-havens-but-their-safety-is-only-temporary-200548">Threatened species recover in fenced safe havens. But their safety is only temporary</a>
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</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Rendall receives funding from the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action. Anthony is a member of the Australian Mammal Society. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Coetsee works for Zoos Victoria, a not-for-profit zoo-based conservation organisation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aviya Naccarella is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia, Australian Mammal Society and Royal Zoological Society of NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action. Euan is a Councillor within the Biodiversity Council, and a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p>Translocation may have been the key to survival for the eastern barred bandicoot but it might not be the golden ticket for every species.Anthony Rendall, Lecturer in Conservation Biology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityAmy Coetsee, Threatened Species Biologist, The University of MelbourneAviya Naccarella, PhD Candidate, Deakin UniversityEuan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233072024-03-01T13:36:06Z2024-03-01T13:36:06ZRemembering the 1932 Ford Hunger March: Detroit park honors labor and environmental history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579009/original/file-20240229-25-snzdp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Dearborn policeman knocked unconscious was the first casualty of the 1932 Ford Hunger March in Detroit and Dearborn.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wayne.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/vmc/id/35955/rec/1">Walter P. Reuther Library, Archives of Labor and Urban Affairs, Wayne State University/Detroit News Burckhardt.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The intersection of Fort Street and Oakwood Boulevard in southwest Detroit today functions mostly as a thoroughfare for trucks and commuters. </p>
<p>However, as you sit idling at the stoplight waiting to cross the bridge over the Rouge River, you might glance to the side and see something unexpected in this heavily industrialized area: A sculpture of weathered steel reaches toward the sky alongside a spray of flowers and waves of grasses and people fishing. </p>
<p>This inconspicuous corner, now the home of the <a href="https://www.motorcities.org/fortstreet">Fort Street Bridge Park</a>, has several stories to tell: of a river, a region, a historic conflict and an ongoing struggle. </p>
<p>If you pull over, you’ll enter a place that attempts to pull together threads of history, environment and sustainable redevelopment.</p>
<p>Signs explain why this sculpture and park are here: to honor the memory of <a href="https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/hunger-march-ford/">protesters who met on this very spot on March 7, 1932</a>, before marching up Miller Road to the massive Ford Rouge River Complex located in the adjacent city of Dearborn. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=K9xPsDgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociology professor</a>, I have a strong interest in how the history of labor and industrial pollution have influenced Detroit. </p>
<p>I’m also interested in the potential for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-018-0765-7">environmental restoration</a> or “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.002">green reparations</a>” to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.002">offer a new way forward</a>.</p>
<p>To understand this potential future, we must first recognize and honor the past.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An iron sculpture commemorates industry and sits as the centerpiece of the Ford Street Bridge Park." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577974/original/file-20240226-24-rb9wdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Fort Street Bridge Park is located along the banks of the Rouge River in southwest Detroit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Draus</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>14 demands</h2>
<p>In their book “<a href="https://www.ueunion.org/labors-untold-story#:%7E:text=Extensively%20researched%2C%20yet%20highly%20readable,conflict%20from%20the%20workers'%20perspective.">Labor’s Untold Story</a>,” published in 1955, journalist Richard Boyer and historian Herbert Morais quote a contemporary account of the Hunger March: </p>
<p><em>It was early, it was cold when the first of the unemployed Ford workers (many of whom had been laid off the day before) arrived at Baby Creek Bridge. They were a small gray group and they stood slapping their sides, warding off the cold, and wondering if they alone would come.</em></p>
<p>Others soon joined them: Black and white, men and women, immigrants and American-born. They united to deliver a list of 14 demands to the auto tycoon <a href="https://corporate.ford.com/articles/history/henry-ford-biography.html">Henry Ford</a>, whose US$5 daily wage for his workers was once considered revolutionary. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Police with bats follow Hunger March marchers on March 7, 1932." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579052/original/file-20240229-30-qh3912.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hunger March protesters demanded better pay and working conditions at the Ford Rouge plant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://wayne.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/vmc/id/37798/rec/1">Detroit News Staff via Walter P. Reuther Library, Archives of Labor and Urban Affairs, Wayne State University.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among the marchers’ demands: jobs for laid-off workers, a seven-hour workday without a pay reduction, two 15-minute rest periods a day, an end to discrimination against Black workers and the right to organize. </p>
<p>This crowd of several thousand marched up the road on one of the coldest days of winter. They were greeted at the Dearborn border with clouds of tear gas, jets of cold water and a shower of bullets. </p>
<p>It was then that the Ford Hunger March became the Ford Massacre. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HFEskpjPbfE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Detroit Workers News Special 1932: Ford Massacre via Workers Film & Photo League International.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The seeds of a labor movement</h2>
<p>Beth Tompkins Bates, in her book “<a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469613857/the-making-of-black-detroit-in-the-age-of-henry-ford/">The Making of Black Detroit in the Age of Henry Ford</a>,” wrote that “The response of the Ford Motor Company on that day shot holes in the myth that Ford cared about his workers, that he was different from other businessmen.” </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Black and white portrait of a young man with wavy hair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578741/original/file-20240228-32-57ksmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Portrait of Joe Bussell, killed by Ford Servicemen during the 1932 Ford Hunger March in Detroit. Bussell’s relatives contributed to the Fort Street Bridge Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reuther.wayne.edu/node/7269">Walter P. Reuther Library</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the end of the day, four marchers lay dead, while many others were injured and hospitalized. A fifth would die months later of his wounds. </p>
<p>More than 30,000 people showed up for the dead marchers’ funerals. The violent reactions of Ford security and Dearborn police during the march were widely condemned. </p>
<p>In an effort to address the stain on its public image, the Ford family first commissioned then expanded a major work by <a href="https://www.nps.gov/places/detroit-industry-murals-detroit-institute-of-arts.htm">Mexican muralist Diego Rivera</a> that was to become the centerpiece of the Detroit Institute of Arts, known as the Detroit Industry Mural. Rivera, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0018246X0800678X">a known communist</a>, depicted both ruthless efficiency and the racialized inequality of the industrial process. </p>
<p>Ford’s battle against unions was ultimately a failure. Five years after the Hunger March, the so-called “<a href="https://reuther.wayne.edu/ex/exhibits/battle.html">Battle of the Overpass</a>” led to the organization of the Rouge plant by the United Auto Workers. </p>
<p>The Ford Hunger March, long forgotten by many, is now <a href="https://www.workers.org/2022/03/62190/">acknowledged as an important catalyst</a> in the growth of the union movement. </p>
<h2>Struggle for sustainability and justice</h2>
<p>The fight for sustainability and environmental justice is another major theme of the park, which chronicles the history of the Rouge River, including the day in 1969 when the <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2019/10/rouge-river-fire-anniversary-great-lakes-moment/">oily water infamously caught fire</a>. </p>
<p>The hellish image of burning rivers helped motivate the signing of the <a href="https://www.boem.gov/air-quality-act-1967-or-clean-air-act-caa">Clean Air</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-clean-water-act">Clean Water acts</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/history">the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency</a>. </p>
<p>The air and water in and around Detroit are <a href="https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2023/05/once-beset-industrial-pollution-rouge-river-slow-path-recovery/">much cleaner today</a> than they were 1969. But this doesn’t change the fact that the area where the park sits bears a disproportionate burden of the pollution generated by the region’s industrial production, which includes cement plants, gypsum and aggregates processors, salt mining and asphalt storage, as well as a steel mill and petroleum refinery.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/content/documents/Citizenship/2018/Sustainability_Report_10_21.pdf">donor to the park</a> is Marathon Petroleum Corporation whose Detroit Refinery occupies the adjoining neighborhood. Though Marathon has invested in the development of green spaces on its own property, the refinery has also expanded in recent years, <a href="https://wdi-publishing.com/product/marathon-petroleum-and-southwest-detroit-the-intersection-of-community-and-environment/">further degrading the local environment</a>.</p>
<p>Research shows that workers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2021.101502">benefit from unionization</a> in myriad ways, not only directly but indirectly. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-historic-hollywood-and-uaw-strikes-arent-labors-whole-story-the-total-number-of-americans-walking-off-the-job-remained-relatively-low-219903">recent labor victories</a> by the UAW, Hollywood writers and other organizers stand in stark contrast to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-10-us-workers-belong-to-unions-a-share-thats-stabilized-after-a-steep-decline-221571">long-term erosion of union membership</a>.</p>
<p>Today, the Fort Street Bridge Park in southwest Detroit serves to remind us of the complexities of history and how apparent progress in one area may be followed by a setback somewhere else. It also represents how the spirit of community, unbroken, keeps pushing for something better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223307/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Draus is affiliated with Friends of the Rouge and Downriver Delta CDC, two nonprofit organizations involved with the Fort Street Bridge Park. He is also the facilitator of the Fort-Rouge Gateway (FRoG) Partnership, a coalition of representatives from nonprofit, community-based, academic and industry that is focused on the sustainable redevelopment of the industrial Rouge region. </span></em></p>On March 7, workers at the Ford Rouge River plant marched for better working conditions, sparking America’s labor movement. Almost a century later, a quiet park honors their memory.Paul Draus, Professor of Sociology; Director, Master of Science in Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Michigan-DearbornLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2233052024-03-01T02:15:13Z2024-03-01T02:15:13ZOn fisheries, Australia must be prepared for New Zealand as opponent rather than ally<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578815/original/file-20240229-26-3xjoe8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4403%2C2942&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fishing-net-trawler-hauled-on-deck-2146555375">Tara Lambourne/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 1, senior Australian and New Zealand ministers signed a <a href="https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/joint-statement-australia-new-zealand-ministerial-consultations-anzmin-2024">Joint Statement of Cooperation</a>, acknowledging the long history of collaboration between the two nations. </p>
<p>The same week, New Zealand <a href="https://www.sprfmo.int/assets/Meetings/01-COMM/12th-Commission-2024/COMM12-Report-2024-Final-26Feb24-No-Annexes.pdf">rejected</a> an Australian proposal on sustainable fishing at the annual fisheries meeting of nations that fish in the high seas of the South Pacific. The move has driven a wedge between these traditional allies. </p>
<p>At stake was an agreement by those nations to protect 70% of special and vulnerable marine ecosystems, such as ancient corals, from destructive fishing practices like bottom-trawling. </p>
<p>Until December 2023, NZ was jointly leading the work to implement this agreement with Australia. But New Zealand’s new government, a coalition of conservative parties, rejected the proposed restrictions, citing concerns about jobs and development. </p>
<p>This sudden about-face raises many questions for Australia, and for progress on sustainable fishing more generally. On fishing, Australia must now be prepared to consider New Zealand an opponent rather than ally. </p>
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<h2>Sustainable fishing alliance no more?</h2>
<p>In 2009, Australia, New Zealand and Chile led successful negotiations for a convention governing sustainable fishing in the South Pacific high seas beyond a nation’s marine exclusive economic zones, meaning more than 370km off the coast. The goal was to make sure fish stocks were not fished out and to protect marine ecosystems. (Tuna are not included, as they are dealt with under a separate convention.) </p>
<p>Since then, New Zealand and Australia have led much of the development of regulations governing the sustainable use of deepwater fish species and the conservation of vulnerable marine ecosystems in the South Pacific region. Their work led to the first measures governing deepwater fisheries, science-based catch limits for deepwater species, and a joint assessment of seafloor fishing methods such as trawling.</p>
<p>But the idea of banning or restricting trawling was controversial. Bottom-trawling, in which boats deploy giant nets that scrape along the ocean floor, is very effective – so much so that it can devastate everything in its path. </p>
<p>In 2015, the United Nations’ first <a href="https://www.un.org/regularprocess/content/first-world-ocean-assessment#:%7E:text=The%20First%20Global%20Integrated%20Marine,Marine%20Environment%2C%20including%20Socioeconomic%20Aspects">worldwide ocean assessment</a> found bottom-trawling causes widespread, long-term destruction to deep-sea environments wherever it is done. Scientists have compared it to clear-felling a forest. The practice is banned in the Mediterranean and in shallow waters of the Southern Ocean, and is increasingly restricted by many nations, including Australia.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="bottom trawling coral" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580023/original/file-20240305-16-hv069o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This 2005 photo shows crew on the New Zealand bottom trawler, Waipori, dumping a large piece of Paragorgia coral dredged from the deep sea in their net.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/story/writing-on-the-wall-for-nz-bottom-trawling-industry/">Malcolm Pullman/Greenpeace</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
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<p>The UN has repeatedly called for better protection, as well as specific actions to make it a reality. And many nations and organisations are heeding that call. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-now-have-a-treaty-governing-the-high-seas-can-it-protect-the-wild-west-of-the-oceans-201184">We now have a treaty governing the high seas. Can it protect the Wild West of the oceans?</a>
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<p>The science is clear. But the politics is not. International waters in the South Pacific are one of the few areas where deepwater bottom-trawling is still permitted on seamounts – underwater mountains rich in life – and similar features.</p>
<p>Last year, South Pacific nations agreed to protect a minimum of 70% of marine ecosystems vulnerable to damage from fishing. This agreement came from research done largely by New Zealand. </p>
<p>Other countries pushed for a higher level of protection, but New Zealand insisted on 70% to ensure its fishing could continue. These kinds of compromises are common at meetings like this.</p>
<p>The meeting in February was meant to agree on how to make the consensus decision a reality. But it was not to be. Now that NZ has withdrawn support, the original decision remains but without the mechanisms to make it happen. Bottom-trawling will likely continue in the South Pacific. </p>
<p>Why? The new NZ fisheries minister, Shane Jones, has <a href="https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/02/01/jones-to-make-nz-jobs-no-1-to-dismay-of-ocean-conservation-allies/">publicly stated</a> he was “keen to ensure that, number one, we’re looking after our own people, looking after jobs and opportunities for economic development to benefit New Zealand.”</p>
<p>While high seas fishing is an important industry for New Zealand, their bottom trawling activity in the South Pacific <a href="https://www.sprfmo.int/assets/Meetings/02-SC/11th-SC-2023/Plenary-documents/SC11-Doc16-Annual-Report-of-New-Zealand-to-SC11-2023.pdf">is small</a>. One vessel fished the bottom in 2021-2022, catching only 20 tonnes of orange roughy. No bottom trawling has happened since then. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="fishing boats in Auckland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578819/original/file-20240229-28-1xzxwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">New Zealand’s seafood exports are economically important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/auckland-new-zealand-february-01-2016-381601837">krug_100/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Since coming to power, New Zealand’s new government has questioned 2030 renewable energy targets, promised to “address climate change hysteria”, declared mining more important than nature protection – and supported bottom-trawling. </p>
<p>Many of these changes will be of considerable concern to Australia. For the past 15 years, Australia has taken a prominent leadership role – alongside New Zealand – in sustainable ocean management. </p>
<p>With Pacific island nations, Australia and NZ worked long and hard to progress the High Seas Treaty – a breakthrough <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-now-have-a-treaty-governing-the-high-seas-can-it-protect-the-wild-west-of-the-oceans-201184">opening new legal avenues</a> to protect up to 30% of the unregulated high seas where illegal and exploitative fishing practices are common. </p>
<p>The NZ government’s willingness to jettison long collaborative work, abandon agreed commitments and risk existing agreements bodes poorly for cooperation across the Tasman. Australia must sadly now treat New Zealand as an opponent when it comes to protecting the seas and managing fisheries for the long term. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-now-have-a-treaty-governing-the-high-seas-can-it-protect-the-wild-west-of-the-oceans-201184">We now have a treaty governing the high seas. Can it protect the Wild West of the oceans?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynda Goldsworthy has attended South Pacific regional fisheries meetings as an academic advisor on the Australian delegation for the past 5 years, and provides occasional consultancy advice to the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition on high seas conservation issues. </span></em></p>For years, Australia and New Zealand have been united in working for sustainable fishing in the South Pacific. That just changed.Lynda Goldsworthy, Research Associate, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246142024-02-28T19:15:46Z2024-02-28T19:15:46ZWhat we know about last year’s top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578474/original/file-20240228-28-s80sff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C3085%2C2120&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Japan Meteorological Agency, Himawari-8</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire. Flood. Fire and flood together. Double-whammy storms. Unprecedented rainfall. Heatwaves. Climate change is making some of Australia’s weather more extreme. In 2023, the country was hit by a broad range of particularly intense events, with economy-wide impacts. Winter was the warmest in a record going back to 1910, while we had the driest September since at least 1900.</p>
<p>We often see extreme weather as distinct events in the news. But it can be useful to look at what’s happening over the year. </p>
<p>Today, more than 30 of Australia’s leading climate scientists <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/the-state-of-weather-and-climate-extremes-2023/">released a report</a> analysing ten major weather events in 2023, from early fires to low snowpack to compound events. </p>
<p>Can we say how much climate change contributed to these events? Not yet. It normally takes several years of research before we can clearly say what role climate change played. But the longer term trends are well established – more frequent, more intense heatwaves over most of Australia, marine heatwave days more than doubling over the last century, and short, intense rainfall events intensifying in some areas. </p>
<h2>What happened in 2023?</h2>
<p><strong>January. Event #1: Record-breaking rain in the north (NT, WA, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>The year began with above-average rainfall in northern Australia influenced by the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64950045">triple-dip</a>” La Niña phase. </p>
<p>Some parts of the country were already experiencing heavy rainfall even before Cyclone Ellie arrived. From late December 2022 to early January 2023, Ellie brought heavy rainfall to Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, resulting in a one-in-100-year flooding of the Fitzroy River. Interestingly, Cyclone Ellie was only a “weak” Category 1 tropical cyclone. So why did it cause so much damage? In their analysis, climate scientists suggest it was actually low wind speeds in the mid-troposphere which allowed the system to stall and keep raining.</p>
<p><strong>February–March. Event 2: Extreme rain and food shortages (NT, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Climate scientists observed the same behaviour from late February to early March 2023, when a persistent slow-moving low-pressure system known as a monsoonal low dumped heavy, widespread rain over the Northern Territory and north-west Queensland. The resulting floods cut transport routes in the NT, and led to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/flooding-logistics-freight-issues-nt-wa-food-supplies-rail-road/102057556">food shortages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>June–August. Event 3 and 4: Warmest winter, little snow (NSW)</strong></p>
<p>After a wet start to the year, conditions became drier and warmer in southern and eastern Australia. New South Wales experienced its warmest winter on record, with daily maximums more than 2°C above the long-term average. </p>
<p>The unusual heat and lack of precipitation translated into the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-season-hanging-in-there-by-a-thread/1466746">second-worst</a> snow season on record (the worst was 2006). </p>
<p><strong>September. Event 5: Record heatwave (SA)</strong></p>
<p>In September, South Australia faced a record-breaking heatwave. Temperatures reached as high as 38°C in Ceduna. As warming continues, scientists suggest unusual heat and heatwaves during the cool season will become more frequent and intense. </p>
<p>September also saw <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20230919.archive.shtml">El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole</a> declared by the Bureau of Meteorology. When these two climate drivers combine, we have a higher chance of a warm and dry Australia, particularly during late winter and spring. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">2023's extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters</a>
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<p><strong>October. Event 6, 7 and 8: Fire-and-flood compound event (VIC), compound wind and rain storms (TAS), unusually early fires (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Dry conditions gave rise to an unseasonably early fire season in Victoria and Queensland. In October, Queensland’s Western Downs region was hit hard. Dozens of houses and two lives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/community-cost-of-devastating-tara-qld-bushfire/103055968">were lost</a> in the town of Tara. </p>
<p>The same month, Victoria’s Gippsland region was hit by back-to-back fires and floods, a phenomenon known as a <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/what-is-a-compound-event-in-weather-and-climate/">compound event</a>. </p>
<p>While it’s difficult to attribute these events to climate change, scientists say hot and dry winters make Australia more prone to early season fires. </p>
<p>Also in October, a different compound event struck Tasmania in the form of successive low-pressure systems. The first dumped a month’s worth of rain in a few days over much of the state, while the second brought strong winds. The rain from the first storm loosened the soil, making it easier for trees to be blown down. </p>
<p>Scientists say the combined effects were more severe than if just one of these events occurred without the other. Such extreme wind-and-rain compound events are expected to occur more frequently in regions such as the tropics as the climate continues to change.</p>
<p><strong>November. Event 9: Supercell thunderstorm trashed crops (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In November, a supercell thunderstorm hit Queensland’s south-east, destroying A$50 million worth of crops and farming equipment. Initial research suggests extreme winds and thunderstorms <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-say-yet-if-grid-breaking-thunderstorms-are-getting-worse-but-we-shouldnt-wait-to-find-out-224148">may become</a> more likely under climate change, but more work is needed.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="crops hailstorm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The hailstorm ripped through crops in Queensland’s Lockyer Valley, a big agricultural area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>December. Event 10: Unprecedented flooding from Cyclone Jasper (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In mid-December, Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in north Queensland. The system weakened into a tropical low and then stalled over Cape York. The weather system’s northerly winds drew in moist air from the Coral Sea, which collided with drier winds from the south-east. This caused persistent heavy rainfall over the region – up to 2 metres in places. Catchments flooded across the region, causing widespread damage to roads, buildings and crops. Similar to ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie, most damage occurred after landfall as the system stalled and dumped rain. </p>
<h2>Climate change can make extreme weather even more extreme</h2>
<p>It’s generally easier to identify and understand the role of human-caused climate change in large-scale extreme events, particularly temperature extremes. So we can say 2023’s exceptional winter heat was probably intensified by what we have done to the climate system. </p>
<p>For smaller-scale extremes, it is often harder to determine the role of climate change, but there’s some evidence short, intense rainfall events are getting even more intense as the world warms. Early-season bushfires and low snow cover are consistent with what we expect under global warming.</p>
<p>There’s also an increasing threat from the risk of compound events where concurrent or consecutive extreme events can amplify damage. </p>
<p>Australia’s intense weather events during 2023 are broadly what we can expect to see as the world keeps getting hotter and hotter due to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases humanity continues to emit. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-heating-may-breach-1-5-c-in-2024-heres-what-that-could-look-like-220877">Global heating may breach 1.5°C in 2024 – here's what that could look like</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laure Poncet receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Last year was the hottest in recorded history. That heat led to a range of unusually intense weather events across Australia.Laure Poncet, Research officer, UNSW SydneyAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245132024-02-28T04:09:29Z2024-02-28T04:09:29ZDutton wants a ‘mature debate’ about nuclear power. By the time we’ve had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal<p>If you believe Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review, Australia wants to go nuclear – as long as it’s small. </p>
<p>Newspoll this week <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/most-australians-would-back-a-move-to-small-scale-nuclear-power/news-story/88589682d1d46b8257c0386f61d51aa6">suggests a majority</a> of us are in favour of building small modular nuclear reactors. A <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/afr-readers-want-small-nuclear-reactors-considered-20230723-p5dqi9">poll of Australian Financial Review readers</a> last year told a similar story.</p>
<p>These polls (and a more general question about nuclear power in a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-warm-to-nuclear-as-billionaire-andrew-forrest-slams-coalition-bulldust-20240226-p5f7wo.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers this week) come after a concerted effort by the Coalition to normalise talking about nuclear power – specifically, the small, modular kind that’s meant to be cheaper and safer. Unfortunately, while small reactors have been around for decades, they are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223015980">generally costlier</a> than larger reactors with a similar design. This reflects the economies of size associated with larger boilers. </p>
<p>The hope (and it’s still only a hope) is “modular” design will permit reactors to be built in factories in large numbers (and therefore at low cost), then shipped to the sites where they are installed.</p>
<p>Coalition enthusiasm for talking about small modular reactors has not been dented by the failure of the only serious proposal to build them: that of NuScale, a company that designs and markets these reactors in the United States. Faced with long delays and increases in the projected costs of the <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/products/voygr-smr-plants">Voygr reactor</a>, the intended buyers, a <a href="https://www.uamps.com/">group of municipal power utilities</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs">pulled the plug</a>. The project had a decade of development behind it but had not even reached prototype stage. </p>
<p>Other proposals to build small modular reactors abound but none are likely to be constructed anywhere before the mid-2030s, if at all. Even if they work as planned (<a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/small-nuclear-reactors-come-with-big-price-tag-report/">a big if</a>), they will arrive too late to replace coal power in Australia. So Opposition Leader Peter Dutton needs to put up a detailed plan for how he would deliver nuclear power in time.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<h2>So why would Australians support nuclear?</h2>
<p>It is worth looking at the claim that Australians support nuclear power. This was the question the Newspoll asked:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a proposal to build several small modular nuclear reactors around Australia to produce zero-emissions energy on the sites of existing coal-fired power stations once they are retired. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This question assumes two things. First, that small modular reactors exist. Second, that someone is proposing to build and operate them, presumably expecting they can do so at a cost low enough to compete with alternative energy sources. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, neither is true. Nuclear-generated power <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">costs up to ten times as much</a> as solar and wind energy. A more accurate phrasing of the question would be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a proposal to keep coal-fired power stations operating until the development of small modular reactors which might, in the future, supply zero-emissions energy. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It seems unlikely such a proposal would gain majority support.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/military-interests-are-pushing-new-nuclear-power-and-the-uk-government-has-finally-admitted-it-216118">Military interests are pushing new nuclear power – and the UK government has finally admitted it</a>
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<h2>Building nuclear takes a long time</h2>
<p>When we consider the timeline for existing reactor projects, the difficulties with nuclear power come into sharp focus.</p>
<p>As National Party Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie has <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/that-is-rubbish-bridget-zali-steggall-and-bridget-mckenzie-clash-over-nuclear/video/652fb62845ef39da803325f0f14bd49d">pointed out</a>, the most successful recent implementation of nuclear power has been in the United Arab Emirates. In 2008, the UAE president (and emir of Abi Dhabi), Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, announced a plan to build four nuclear reactors. Construction started in 2012. The last reactor is about to be connected to the grid, 16 years after the project was announced.</p>
<p>The UAE’s performance is better than that achieved recently <a href="https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/nuclear-construction-time">in Western countries</a> including the US, UK, France and Finland.</p>
<p>In 16 years’ time, by 2040, most of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations will have shut down. Suppose the Coalition gained office in 2025 on a program of advocating nuclear power and managed to pass the necessary legislation in 2026. If we could match the pace of the UAE, nuclear power stations would start coming online just in time to replace them. </p>
<p>If we spent three to five years discussing the issue, then matched the UAE schedule, the plants would arrive too late.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dutton-wants-australia-to-join-the-nuclear-renaissance-but-this-dream-has-failed-before-209584">Dutton wants Australia to join the "nuclear renaissance" – but this dream has failed before</a>
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<h2>It would take longer in Australia</h2>
<p>Would it be possible to match the UAE schedule? The UAE had no need to pass legislation: it doesn’t have a parliament like ours, let alone a Senate that can obstruct government legislation. The necessary institutions, including a regulatory commission and a publicly owned nuclear power firm, were established by decree.</p>
<p>There were no problems with site selection, not to mention environmental impact statements and court actions. The site at Barakah was conveniently located on an almost uninhabited stretch of desert coastline, but still close enough to the main population centres to permit a connection to transmission lines, access for workers, and so on. There’s nowhere in Australia’s eastern states (where the power is needed) that matches that description.</p>
<p>Finally, there are no problems with strikes or union demands: both are illegal in the UAE. Foreign workers with even less rights than Emirati citizens did almost all the construction work.</p>
<p>Despite all these advantages, the UAE has not gone any further with nuclear power. Instead of building more reactors after the first four, it’s <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/energy/uae-new-1500mw-solar-plant-to-be-developed-in-abu-dhabi-will-power-160000-homes">investing massively</a> in solar power and battery storage.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-minister-chris-bowen-says-replacing-coal-fired-power-stations-with-nuclear-would-cost-387-billion-213735">Climate minister Chris Bowen says replacing coal-fired power stations with nuclear would cost $387 billion</a>
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<h2>Time to start work is running out</h2>
<p>The Coalition began calling for a “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/peter-dutton-calls-for-mature-debate-over-nuclear-energy/news-story/bb023ce4ee8691c1709b772876f6beca">mature debate</a>” on nuclear <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/06/the-coalition-didnt-do-much-on-nuclear-energy-while-in-office-why-are-they-talking-about-it-now">immediately after losing office</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s now too late for discussion. If Australia is to replace any of our retiring coal-fired power stations with nuclear reactors, Dutton must commit to this goal before the 2025 election. </p>
<p>Talk about hypothetical future technologies is, at this point, nothing more than a distraction. If Dutton is serious about nuclear power in Australia, he needs to put forward a plan now. It must spell out a realistic timeline that includes the establishment of necessary regulation, the required funding model and the sites to be considered.</p>
<p>In summary, it’s time to put up or shut up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Small modular reactors are popular among conservative politicians and supposedly the Australian public. But they’re nowhere near ready to power Australia in time to replace coal-powered stations.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241482024-02-27T22:57:44Z2024-02-27T22:57:44ZWe can’t say yet if grid-breaking thunderstorms are getting worse – but we shouldn’t wait to find out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578151/original/file-20240227-24-2wzo6a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-cloud-details-530178991">Janelle Lugge/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On February 13, six transmission line towers in Victoria were destroyed by extreme wind gusts from thunderstorms, leading to forced electricity outages affecting tens of thousands of people. The intense winds knocked trees onto local power lines or toppled the poles, which caused about 500,000 people to lose power. Some people went without electricity for more than a week. A month earlier, severe thunderstorms and wind <a href="https://www.westernpower.com.au/news/storm-destroyed-transmission-line-rebuilt-and-re-energised/">took out</a> five transmission towers in Western Australia and caused widespread outages. </p>
<p>Intense thunderstorm events have made news in recent years, including the January 2020 storms that caused the collapse of <a href="https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/Cressy_500kV_Tower_Incident_31Jan2020_report.pdf">six transmission towers in Victoria</a>. Perhaps the most far-reaching storms were those in 2016, when all of South Australia lost power for several hours after <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/thunderstorm-reports/Severe_Thunderstorm_and_Tornado_Outbreak_28_September_2016.pdf">extreme winds</a> damaged many transmission towers. </p>
<p>So are these thunderstorms with extreme winds getting worse as the climate changes? It’s possible, but we can’t yet say for sure. That’s partly because thunderstorms involve small-scale processes harder to study than bigger weather systems. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<h2>How can wind topple a giant transmission tower?</h2>
<p>Many people saw the photos of transmission towers bent like thin wire and wondered how it was possible.</p>
<p>The reason is physics. When wind hits a structure, the force it applies is roughly proportional to the wind speed squared. When wind gusts are stronger than about 100 kilometres per hour, even just for a few seconds, there can be a risk of damage to infrastructure. </p>
<p>Direction matters too. Wind has greater force when it blows more directly towards a surface. If strong winds blow from an unusual direction, risk of damage can also increase. Old trees, for instance, may be more firmly braced against prevailing winds – but if storm winds blow from another direction, they might topple onto power lines. </p>
<p>On February 13, a strong cold front was approaching Victoria from the southeast, bringing thunderstorms with extreme wind gusts over 120 km/h after a period of extreme heat. Thunderstorms can create extremely strong and localised gusty winds, sometimes called “<a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts">microbursts</a>” due to cold heavy air falling rapidly out of the clouds. These winds were enough to bend towers and topple trees and poles. </p>
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<h2>Are these thunderstorm winds getting worse?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">Scientific evidence</a> clearly shows climate change is steadily worsening hazards such as extreme heatwaves and bushfires, which can damage our grid and energy systems. </p>
<p>On balance, evidence suggests tropical cyclones may become less frequent but more severe on average. All but one of Australia’s tropical cyclones <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season">this summer</a> have been severe (Category 3 or higher).</p>
<p>But we aren’t yet certain what climate change does to extreme winds from thunderstorms.</p>
<p>This is because high-quality observations of past thunderstorms are relatively rare, with large variability in how often storms occur and their severity, and because climate models have difficulties simulating the small-scale processes which give rise to thunderstorms.</p>
<p>The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/severe-weather-knowledge-centre/severethunder.shtml#formation">thunderstorms to form</a>. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture. </p>
<p>We also know the severity of thunderstorms can be affected by <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81211-vertical-wind-shear-and-convective-storms">vertical wind shear</a>, which is the way the wind changes with height. To date, we’re less certain about how wind shear will change in the future.</p>
<p><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021JD034633">Recent research</a> by coauthor Andrew Brown and the lead author suggests climate change is likely causing more favourable conditions for thunderstorms with damaging winds, particularly in inland regions of Australia. But the methods used for these predictions are new, meaning more research needs to be done for further insight on what climate change will do to extreme winds.</p>
<h2>We shouldn’t wait to find out</h2>
<p>Modelling extreme wind gusts is still in its infancy. But given so much of our electricity grid is exposed to extreme winds, it’s important we try to address this gap in our knowledge.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say we should treat these storms as a warning. We should factor the risks from extreme winds into how we design our energy systems. It’s especially important as we build a grid able to handle clean energy that we anticipate these kinds of risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>Hardening the grid by burying powerlines and removing vegetation isn’t the only option. We could build a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275411779_The_Grid_Stronger_Bigger_Smarter_Presenting_a_Conceptual_Framework_of_Power_System_Resilience">smarter grid</a>, with distributed renewables and energy storage including large as well as relatively smaller (e.g., community-level or household-level) batteries, giving the grid greater resilience including against extreme weather events.</p>
<p>In the wake of South Australia’s devastating 2016 <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aemc_-_sa_black_system_review_-_final_report.pdf">grid outage</a>, authorities moved to boost grid resilience in this way, building big batteries, more renewables and new interconnectors, while Australia’s energy market operator AEMO changed how it <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">dealt with windfarms</a> if grid issues occur. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">What caused South Australia's state-wide blackout?</a>
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<p>Power grids are the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a44067133/how-does-the-power-grid-work/">largest machines</a> in the world. As we move to a clean energy grid, we face complex challenges – not just in building it, but in protecting it against extreme weather. </p>
<p>We would be well served if we work to better understand the risks of compound events, such as combinations of extreme winds, fires or floods hitting a region around the same time. </p>
<p>We also need accurate predictions of risks shortly before extreme winds or other disasters strike, as well as effective long-term planning for the risks likely to increase due to climate change or during different climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.</p>
<p>If we get this response wrong, our energy bills will rise too much and, worse, we still might not have a more resilient system. Since our energy networks are regulated by a complex set of government rules, reform is not just something for industry to address. It must ultimately be led by government – and guided by evidence.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather-224142">Victoria's power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Dowdy receives funding from the University of Melbourne's Melbourne Energy Institute and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Brown receives funding from Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Vincent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Brear receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies. These companies include those that are responsible for energy networks, energy generation, energy retail and energy use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierluigi Mancarella receives funding from several government organisations as well as several Australian and international companies, include those that are responsible for energy networks, generation, retail and use.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Lane receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Extreme winds from thunderstorms have downed transmission towers from Victoria to Western Australia in recent years. What’s going on?Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist, The University of MelbourneAndrew Brown, Ph.D. student, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneClaire Vincent, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneMichael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of MelbournePierluigi Mancarella, Chair Professor of Electrical Power Systems, The University of MelbourneTodd Lane, Professor, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230482024-02-27T14:07:04Z2024-02-27T14:07:04ZBenefits of using cleaner cooking fuels are blunted in urban areas where outdoor air is polluted: findings from Ghana, Cameroon and Kenya<p>Household air pollution from cooking, heating and lighting with fuels like wood, charcoal and kerosene poses a substantial global health problem. </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2022-who-publishes-new-global-data-on-the-use-of-clean-and-polluting-fuels-for-cooking-by-fuel-type">2 billion</a> people cook with polluting fuels and are exposed to high levels of household air pollution. The highest proportion live in sub-Saharan Africa, where <a href="https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/new-research-could-help-boost-growth-of-clean-cooking-in-sub-saharan-africa/29340#:%7E:text=Approximately%20900%20million%20people%20cook,health%2Ddamaging%20and%20climate%20pollutants">about 900 million</a> people cook with polluting fuels.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30197-2/fulltext">Studies</a> have shown that use of cleaner cooking fuels, like electricity, ethanol and liquefied petroleum gas, reduces exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a damaging pollutant. But <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-021-00756-5">other studies</a> have also shown that the use of cleaner cooking fuels doesn’t necessarily reduce PM2.5 levels in people’s homes.</p>
<p>To understand why, our research looked at three rapidly urbanising communities in Cameroon (Mbalmayo), Ghana (Obuasi) and Kenya (Eldoret). We looked at differences in air pollutant levels across cooking fuel types as well as other environmental factors. We measured levels of PM2.5 as well as carbon monoxide (CO), another damaging air pollutant. </p>
<p>Half of the households that were part of our study were mostly cooking with LPG, which is considered a cleaner cooking fuel. The other half were cooking only with polluting fuels, including wood and charcoal.</p>
<p>Our findings showed that the type of cooking fuel households used did indeed affect levels of pollution inside people’s homes. But we found wide disparities between the three communities. For example, there was hardly any difference in average PM2.5 exposures between LPG and charcoal users in the Ghanaian setting. However, in the Kenyan and Cameroonian communities, women’s average PM2.5 levels were much higher among those cooking with wood, compared with those cooking with LPG. In Eldoret, Kenya, women cooking with charcoal were also exposed to substantially higher levels than those cooking with LPG. </p>
<p>We concluded from our results that this could be explained by the fact that environmental factors were also at play – air pollution levels outside people’s homes. In the Ghanaian area, outdoor air pollution levels were around double the levels in the other two communities. This difference is likely due in part to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231099002964?via%3Dihub">increased levels</a> of Saharan dust in Ghana during the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/harmattan">harmattan</a> season. </p>
<p>In addition, most women in the Ghanaian setting usually cooked outdoors on a veranda. This increased their exposure to outdoor air pollution. In contrast, women in Kenya and Cameroon typically cooked indoors.</p>
<p>We also found that women, regardless of the cooking fuel they used, had higher exposure to PM2.5 if they lived closer to a busy road (less than a five minute walk away) and travelled outdoors during the day. This suggested that traffic emissions probably made up a substantial proportion of the air pollution that women were breathing in these urban areas. And emissions generated from cooking might have contributed less to overall PM2.5 exposures. </p>
<p>This may explain why there were minimal differences between PM2.5 exposures among women using LPG and charcoal stoves in the Ghanaian community, despite LPG stoves generally emitting lower levels of PM2.5. It follows that, in some areas with rapid urbanisation, outdoor air pollution is probably lowering the ability of clean cooking fuels to reduce PM2.5 exposures. </p>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>As cities continue to urbanise and the African population increasingly migrates to cities, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01311-2">evidence</a> points to the fact that localised levels of air pollution from industrial sources, traffic, and trash burning are likely to increase. This means that people will become increasingly exposed to air pollutants outdoors and that reductions in PM2.5 exposure that happens when people switch from polluting fuels to LPG may be lower. </p>
<p>Our findings show that clean cooking fuels can reduce indoor air pollution. However, a focus on reducing indoor pollution by switching cooking fuels may only have a limited effect on people’s exposure to damaging air pollutants. Our findings point to the need for developing strategies for reducing both indoor and outdoor air pollution levels. Lower outdoor PM2.5 concentrations can be achieved through stricter regulations on traffic emissions and limiting or eliminating trash burning in favour of less polluting methods for solid waste disposal.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, efforts to encourage a transition towards clean cooking fuels should remain an important policy priority, particularly in communities that are exposed to lower levels of outdoor PM2.5. The transition to clean cooking fuels can potentially have a greater health benefit in these settings. </p>
<p>A more targeted approach and prioritising certain areas in the drive for access to cleaner cooking fuels makes sense. As the <a href="https://cleancooking.org/">Clean Cooking Alliance</a> has pointed out, there are limited resources and funding to tackle the move towards cleaner cooking fuels. Targeting specific areas for clean cooking transitions may therefore be a useful strategy. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the global health community must devote more resources to providing universal access to clean cooking by 2030 <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/sustainable-development-goals/why-do-sustainable-development-goals-matter/goal-7">(United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7)</a>].</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Shupler is also a researcher in the Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems at the University of Liverpool. This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (ref: 17/63/155) using UK aid from
the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esong Miranda Baame and Theresa Tawiah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dust and traffic pollution add to the health hazard posed by some cooking fuels.Matthew Shupler, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Public Health, Harvard UniversityEsong Miranda Baame, PhD Candidate, Université de DschangTheresa Tawiah, Health Economist ,Department of Environmental Health, Kintampo Health Research CenterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191402024-02-27T12:41:39Z2024-02-27T12:41:39ZCould a couple of Thai otters have helped the UK’s otter population recover? Our study provides a hint<p>Otter populations crashed in Britain around the 1960s from the lethal effects of chemical pollution in rivers and lakes – or so we thought. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/40/11/msad207/7275014">Our research</a> has looked more closely at what happened to otters in Britain over the last 800 years and has revealed a more complex picture. </p>
<p>Since Eurasian otters (<em>Lutra lutra</em>) are at the top of the aquatic food chain in Britain, any contamination consumed by their prey, and by the prey of their prey, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c05410">accumulates in otters</a>. So otters are particularly susceptible to any toxic chemicals in their environment. </p>
<p>Following the banning of many chemical pollutants, otter populations began to recover, and we now have otters in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eva.13505">every county in Britain</a>. National otter surveys have been conducted in Wales, Scotland and England since 1977 and have helped to track population recovery. </p>
<p>However, we didn’t have a good grasp on what population sizes were like in the decades before this time. We only had anecdotal evidence that otter hunting was becoming less “successful” over time, and that both sightings and signs of otters were rarer. </p>
<h2>Otter population decline</h2>
<p>Our research shows that roughly between 1950 and 1970, an extreme population decline happened in the east of England, and a strong decline in south-west England. They were probably caused by chemical pollution. </p>
<p>In Scotland, otter populations showed a long-term, but smaller decline, which suggests less chemical pollution. There was a smaller population decline in Wales, which started around 1800, possibly linked to otter hunting and changes in how people shaped and used the landscape. </p>
<p>While both deal with DNA, genetics focuses on individual genes and their roles, while genomics examines the entire set of an organism’s DNA. Although there have been genetic studies of otters in Britain, our research was the first time genomics was used to study Eurasian otters anywhere in the world.</p>
<p>Working with scientists from the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute and the Wellcome Sanger’s Darwin Tree of Life project, we looked at the entire otter genome. The upgrade from genetics to genomics threw up a few surprises. </p>
<p>First, there was a mitochondrial DNA sequence found in the east of England, which was very different to the sequences in the rest of Britain. Mitochondrial DNA is a sequence of DNA found in a cell’s mitochondria, which is what generates the energy. Mitochondrial DNA is inherited only from the mother, while the rest of the DNA is a mix of both the mother’s and the father’s DNA.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19768354.2023.2283763">recent study</a> by our research group, in collaboration with colleagues in South Korea, suggested a divergence between these two lineages at least 80,000 years ago. Finding this mitochondrial lineage (that, based on our data, is otherwise restricted to Asia) in the UK was surprising. </p>
<p>Second, we found high levels of genetic diversity in the east of England. Normally, after an extreme population decline such as the one we identified in this area, genetic diversity decreases. Yet we saw much greater diversity here than in the population in Scotland, where there was no clear evidence for such a decline. </p>
<h2>Thai otters</h2>
<p>With a little detective work, we discovered that a pair of Eurasian otters (the same species that we have in the UK), were brought to Britain from Thailand in the 1960s. Populations of Eurasian otters range right across Europe and Asia. Although they are the same species, there are several genetically distinct subspecies, particularly in Asia. </p>
<p>It seems possible that these genetically different otters from Thailand bred with otters in the east of England. At the time of the population decline, when native UK populations were at their smallest, even a few individuals introduced into the population may have made a big difference. And they left unexpected marks on the genome. </p>
<p>We don’t know for sure if this is what happened, and we need to do more work to find out what effect this may have had on otters in the east of England. High genetic diversity is usually good for a population or species. But on the other hand, conservation often strives to maintain genetic differences between populations, rather than mixing distinct populations.</p>
<p>One way to find out more would be to compare the genome of a Eurasian otter from Thailand to the otters we see in the east of England. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy. Since the 1960s, otters in Thailand and across Asia have become increasingly rare. This is due to habitat loss, pollution and the illegal otter trade. So getting samples for genome sequencing is very difficult. It highlights the importance of conserving the species in Asia, despite population recoveries in Europe.</p>
<p>Our work shows the value of using modern genomic tools to look at the genetic diversity of a threatened species. The application of such tools can uncover surprising facts, even in supposedly well-studied species.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Hailer receives funding from NERC and Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Chadwick receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and from the Environment Agency</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah du Plessis receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the Global Wales International Mobility Fund.</span></em></p>Research has revealed how British otters may have been able to recover from species loss in the 1950s with the help of otters from Asia.Frank Hailer, Senior Lecturer in Evolutionary Biology, Cardiff UniversityElizabeth Chadwick, Senior Lecturer at the School of Biosciences, Cardiff UniversitySarah du Plessis, PhD Candidate, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239642024-02-26T18:59:49Z2024-02-26T18:59:49ZIs there an alternative to 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines? Yes – but you may not like it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576945/original/file-20240221-20-pfrp3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C5362%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/engineering-working-on-highvoltage-tower-check-604767788">Aunging/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Building transmission lines is often controversial. Farmers who agree to host new lines on their property may be paid, while other community members protest against the visual intrusion. Pushback against new lines has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/distrust-anxiety-in-regional-communities-over-renewables/103419062">slowed development</a> and forced the government to promise more consultation. </p>
<p>It’s not a new problem. <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/161024868?searchTerm=transmission%20line%20protest">Communities questioned</a> the routes of earlier transmission lines built during the 1950s-70s to link new coal and hydroelectric plants to the cities. </p>
<p>But this time, the transition has to be done at speed. Shifting from the old coal grid to a green grid requires new transmission lines. In its future system planning, Australia’s energy market operator sees the need for 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines in the five states (and the Australian Capital Territory) which make up the <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/NEM">National Energy Market</a>. </p>
<p>Do we need all of these new transmission lines? Or will the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-21/rooftop-solar-cells-in-australia-to-outperform-demand/103489806">staggering growth</a>” of solar on houses and warehouses coupled with cheaper energy storage mean some new transmission lines are redundant? </p>
<p>The answer depends on how we think of electricity. Is it an essential service that must be reliable more than 99.9% of the time? If so, yes, we need these new lines. But if we think of it as a regular service, we would accept a less reliable (99%) service in exchange for avoiding some new transmission lines. This would be a fundamental change in how we think of power. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1757595444543434787"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why do we need these new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>The old grid was built around connecting a batch of fossil fuel plants via transmission lines to consumers in the towns and cities. To build this grid – one of the world’s largest by distance covered – <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/about-the-national-electricity-market-nem">required 40,000 km</a> of transmission lines. </p>
<p>The new grid is based around gathering energy from distributed renewables from many parts of the country. The market operator foresees a <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/transmission-infrastructure-lagging-as-planners-seek-to-balance-local-needs-20230904-p5e1st#:%7E:text=More%20than%2010%2C000%20kilometres%20of,the%20Australian%20Energy%20Market%20Operator.">nine-fold increase</a> in the total capacity of large scale solar and wind plants, which need transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s why the market operator lays out <a href="https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation">integrated systems plans</a> every two years. The goal is to give energy users the best value by designing the lowest-cost way to secure reliable energy able to meet any emissions goals set by policymakers. </p>
<p>To avoid having to build transmission lines everywhere, policymakers have opted to group renewables in “renewable energy zones” with good wind or solar resources, and build transmission lines just to the zones. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing</a>
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<p>According to the market operator, the major reasons why we need such a strong transmission network are: </p>
<p>– to harness flows of variable renewable power from different regions to make sure the system is reliable </p>
<p>– to cope with outages or shortfalls in supply. If a cloud band cuts solar farm output in one state, the grid can draw on solar from another state. </p>
<p>– boosting regional economies with advanced manufacturing and production of emerging green products and technologies.</p>
<p>So while 10,000 km sounds like a lot, it’s been kept to the minimum. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="transmission lines on farmland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576948/original/file-20240221-24-aep6rz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Transmission lines are necessary – but people often don’t want them nearby.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-voltage-lines-power-pylons-flat-224476993">Ruud Morijn Photographer/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>What if rooftop solar takes over?</h2>
<p>Even so, some <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">energy insiders</a> question whether we need all these new transmission lines. </p>
<p>What if the growth of behind-the-meter energy resources such as rooftop solar, grid-connected home batteries and electric cars begin to cut demand from the grid? </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/01/how-generous-subsidies-helped-australia-to-become-a-leader-in-solar-power#:%7E:text=Roughly%20one%20in%20three%20Australian,on%20a%20per%20capita%20basis.">one in three households</a> now have solar on their rooftops – the highest solar take up per capita in the world. And as more electric cars arrive in driveways, we will start using their large batteries as a backup power supply for our homes – or to <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/these-ev-owners-are-making-thousands-selling-energy-back-to-the-grid-20231114-p5ejtw">sell the power</a> on the grid. Could it be that cities could make their own power, as Nationals leader David Littleproud has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-re-gonna-eat-bugs-climate-fears-and-conspiracies-at-canberra-renewables-protest-20240208-p5f3e8.html">called for</a>?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>Planners at Australia’s market operator do anticipate ever-greater levels of rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles. Their latest forecasts see these resources with enough capacity to power 30% of the grid by the end of the decade and 45% by mid-century. </p>
<p>These are substantial contributions, but not enough to power a nation. As we move to electrify everything, we will need to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-renewable-grid-for-australia-is-feasible-and-affordable-with-just-a-few-hours-of-storage/">roughly double</a> how much electricity we produce. Electricity is a much more efficient way to power transport, for instance, but switching from petrol to electric vehicles will mean more grid demand. </p>
<p>Having said that, we cannot be certain. When we model ways of giving up fossil fuels and ending emissions, there is always major uncertainty over what shape the future will take. Some technologies may splutter while others surge ahead. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="recharging electric car with grid in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576951/original/file-20240221-28-y35hct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Over time, more of us will use electric vehicle batteries to store power or to send it back to the grid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-woman-recharge-ev-electric-car-2388670547">Owlie Productions/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>We could trade new transmission lines for a less reliable supply</h2>
<p>At present, electricity is considered an essential service under <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Reliability%20Standard%20Factsheet.pd">national electricity laws</a>. That means there has to be enough power 99.998% of the time. To meet that threshold, outages have to be kept to ten minutes in a year. </p>
<p>Making electricity an essential service is a choice. We could choose differently. If we decided electricity should be a regular service, where 99% reliability is OK (translating to outages of up to 87 hours a year), we would be able to get away with fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>That’s because wealthier households would likely respond to more outages by investing more in big solar arrays and batteries. Some would become energy self-sufficient and cut ties with the grid. </p>
<p>In this scenario, self-generation by the rich would mean a reduced demand on the grid, and we might be able to get away with building fewer new transmission lines. </p>
<p>But we should be careful here. If we took this approach, we would reshape society. The rich would be insulated while poorer households deal with the pain of power outages. The idea of the grid as a public good would begin to disappear. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-transmission-lines-are-controversial-for-nearby-communities-but-batteries-and-virtual-lines-could-cut-how-many-we-need-208018">New transmission lines are controversial for nearby communities. But batteries and virtual lines could cut how many we need</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223964/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s main grid has 40,000 km of transmission lines. Building another 10,000 km quickly is proving hard.Magnus Söderberg, Professor & Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith UniversityPhillip Wild, Senior Research Fellow, CAEEPR, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2241422024-02-22T19:19:00Z2024-02-22T19:19:00ZVictoria’s power outage could have been far worse. Can we harden the grid against extreme weather?<p>Last week’s destructive storm took Victoria by surprise. As winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour raced through the state, transmission towers near Geelong toppled and the grid went into chaos. </p>
<p>At its worst, almost one in five Victorian homes were left <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/victorias-electricity-spot-prices-soar-as-states-largest-coal-generator-suffers-outage">without electricity</a>
while the main transmission system came <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/market_notices_and_events/power_system_incident_reports/2024/preliminary-report---loss-of-moorabool---sydenham-500-kv-lines-on-13-feb-2024.pdf?la=en">close to collapse</a>. </p>
<p>That makes it comparable to Victoria’s last <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/wild-weather-warning-as-storms-lash-melbourne-regional-victoria/100578948">grid-crippling storms</a> in October 2021. </p>
<p>But this power outage could have been much worse. It speaks to the urgent need to harden our grid against the more frequent extreme weather expected under climate change. </p>
<h2>What actually happened?</h2>
<p>It was very hot in Victoria on February 13. Fires raged in central Victoria, claiming dozens of houses. When a cool change arrived, it brought extreme winds. </p>
<p>At about 12.35pm, Australia’s largest windfarm, Stockyard Hill, disconnected from the grid, as a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/vicemergency/photos/watch-act-grass-fire-leave-nowincident-location-stockyard-hillissue-date-tuesday/719539106985386/?paipv=0&eav=AfZh-4_GUI540qgzMqlBWjgP6p6IhujLW7rBtJ4YFeC4rUOuizrz_zn82hPUhOAsn3g&_rdr">grass fire</a> threatened its grid connection. </p>
<p>As it happens, the loss of the windfarm was actually a lucky break.</p>
<p>At 2.08pm, six of Victoria’s highest voltage transmission towers (500 kiloVolt) were toppled by extreme downdrafts. This catastrophe took out two sets of 500 kV powerlines transporting much of the electricity from wind farms in western and south western Victoria to Melbourne. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p>At the time of collapse, the circuits were likely fairly heavily loaded. They would have been much more heavily loaded had Stockyard Hill windfarm not dropped off the system 90 minutes earlier from the unrelated grass fire. </p>
<p>In response to the 500 kV faults, voltages dipped, forcing all four of the large coal-fired generating units at Loy Yang A to disconnect. Two wind farms in western Victoria were disconnected automatically, as intended in their cases.</p>
<p>During most of the transmission crisis, rooftop solar became the largest source of supply in Victoria.</p>
<p>In addition to the transmission events, damage to local distribution poles and wires was widespread, especially in regional Victoria. This <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/experts-to-review-victoria-s-energy-crash-after-extreme-storms-20240220-p5f6as.html">cut power</a> to about one in five Victorian homes. </p>
<p>In about two hours, the power system had stabilised. Gas and hydro generators rushed in to fill the gap left by Loy Yang A and the wind farms, and Victoria got through its evening peak. Many homes on however still remain without power through distribution network failures.</p>
<p>In response, the Victorian government has <a href="https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-independent-review-of-storm-response/">announced</a> it will appoint an independent panel to review the disaster, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/independent-review-green-lit-into-vic-storms-blackout">closely following</a> the review of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/dandenongs-storms-residents-still-reeling-a-year-later/103068ad-295d-41db-9618-27386380c498">devastating storms</a> in June 2021. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review">final recommendations</a> from the review of the 2021 storms, the panel played it safe, calling for better communication with affected communities, beefed up emergency responses and relief delivery and so on. </p>
<p>The government also <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/about-energy/legislation/regulatory-reviews/electricity-distribution-network-resilience-review#:%7E:text=The%20Government%20Response%20to%20the,Victoria%20to%20submit%20a%20request">accepted</a> a key recommendation: any major changes to strengthen network resilience should be referred to the Australian Energy Markets Commission, thereby kicking the big challenges into the long grass.</p>
<p>This time round, the omens are inauspicious. The government has explicitly excluded transmission from its review, instead relegating it to the electricity safety regulator. This is short-sighted. The Victorian transmission network is heavily exposed to weather risk and it is getting worse. </p>
<h2>What should be done about it?</h2>
<p>This won’t be the last grid-buckling extreme weather we’ll see. Far from it. </p>
<p>There are many things that can be done to reduce weather risk, and putting high (and low) voltage lines underground is often spoken about. </p>
<p>It will be expensive. In the wake of devastating fires, California’s <a href="https://www.pge.com/en/outages-and-safety/safety/community-wildfire-safety-program/system-hardening-and-undergrounding.html#:%7E:text=We%20are%20upgrading%20our%20electric,improve%20reliability%20during%20severe%20weather.">largest utility</a> committed to put 16,000 km of lines underground. So far, almost 1,000 km has been completed. But the cost has <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/02/20/fighting-fires-in-the-power-sector/">been substantial</a> – around A$3.2 million a kilometre. </p>
<p>Victoria has 148,000 km of distribution lines of which 84% is overhead and 16% underground, a similar proportion to the rest of Australia. It’s much easier and cheaper to put distribution lines underground than transmission lines. </p>
<p>If we optimistically assume the same cost as in California, boosting the proportion of Victoria’s distribution network that is underground by 10 percentage points (to 26%) would cost around $37 billion. That’s more than double the regulatory value of the distribution network in Victoria. </p>
<p>Is enhanced vegetation management – widespread tree clearing near lines cheaper? Perhaps not. <a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP347.pdf">Research in California </a> suggests undergrounding may actually be more cost-effective in terms of fires avoided. </p>
<p>More cost-effective than undergrounding are rapid switches, devices able to quickly clear faults and reduce the chance downed lines will start fires. Victoria began requiring distributors to install these from 2016, following the state’s 2009 Black Saturday fires, where downed powerlines sparked several lethal blazes. Their effectiveness is yet to be proven. </p>
<p>These are difficult questions and much is to be gained by considering them carefully. This will require the government to reach for more than another set of “must-try-harder” recommendations.</p>
<h2>What about building new transmission lines?</h2>
<p>Even as extreme weather topples huge transmission towers, state and federal governments are pressing ahead to build more. Expanding transmission capacity is important to decarbonise our electricity supply. But if not done well, it will increase exposure to weather risk. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/cb01c4_adef2391c5414148bf8f388a0f1dcebe.pdf">Our study</a> of VNI-West, the proposed massive new Victoria-New South Wales interconnector, found it would greatly increase Victoria’s energy security risk.</p>
<p>Why? Because it will be very heavily loaded, much more so than the 500 kV lines that failed last week, and it carries two sets of conductors on one set of towers. </p>
<p>This proposed new interconnector will make Victoria deeply dependent on NSW for its electricity supply. In a little over a decade Victoria is expected to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-links-could-turn-victoria-into-energy-importer-solar-and-storage-would-be-cheaper/">import 26%</a> of its grid-supplied electricity, much of it conveyed on VNI-West. This is an astonishing and little-known aspect of Victoria’s existing electricity policy.</p>
<p>Vandalism or extreme weather could, at a stroke, disable this new transmission line. In our report we drew attention to sabotage and weather risk and since out report we have seen yet more evidence of <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/two-charged-after-allegedly-tampering-with-power-pole-that-cut-electricity-to-thousands-of-homes-20230913-p5e4cc.html">sabotage</a>, and now we have another clear example of the risks from extreme weather. </p>
<p>To date, Australia’s market operator has <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_e9a4bfe6fd1f44ffb16b1d3eb9da3e5c.pdf">brushed off</a> our critique without reason.</p>
<p>Victoria dodged a bullet last week. It could have been far worse. To be ready for the next major storm, we should at the very least have a bipartisan parliamentary inquiry into the events of February 13. And this must scrutinise whether the proposed Victoria-NSW interconnector could survive a similar event – and what would happen if it did not. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorian-homes-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient-223494">A major blackout left 500,000 Victorian homes without power – but it shows our energy system is resilient</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224142/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transmission towers bent like soft plastic when extreme winds whipped through Victoria last week. Fixing it means asking hard questions.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231452024-02-22T14:37:14Z2024-02-22T14:37:14ZTraditional weather forecasts: expert shares 5 ways Africa’s coastal residents predict floods<p>In the Lapai Gwari community of Niger state, north central Nigeria, elders predict the weather by observing a large stone in the Chachanga River. The LapanGwagwan stone serves as a tool to determine the frequency of flooding and gauge the severity of rainfall. </p>
<p>When the colour of the stone changes to brown, it signifies an imminent heavy downpour, while a grey colour indicates either light or moderate rainfall. </p>
<p>This traditional knowledge helps the community to prepare for potential flooding.</p>
<p>This is just one example of the indigenous knowledge established in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269399?seq=1">literature</a> as important in mitigating the effects of climate change. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-7/">report</a> also affirms that indigenous knowledge should be integrated into research.</p>
<p>Transferring this knowledge doesn’t always happen, however. Scientists and policymakers don’t all recognise its value.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, for coastal communities like Lapai Gwari, frequent flooding poses a <a href="https://ehs.unu.edu/news/news/frequent-flooding-in-african-coastal-cities-demand-holistic-recovery-pathways.html#:%7E:text=Frequent%20flooding%20in%20African%20coastal%20cities%20demand%20holistic%20recovery%20pathways,-News&text=Coastal%20cities%20across%20Africa%20experience,and%20oftentimes%20extreme%E2%80%93%20flood%20events.">major threat and risk</a> to long-term development. </p>
<p><a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.253">Studies</a> suggest that by 2100, sea levels could rise by as much as 100cm, presenting even more hazards to coastal communities around Africa.</p>
<p>I have been <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">researching</a> the adaptation and resilience of African coastal cities to climate change for over a decade. I believe that identifying and integrating indigenous knowledge has a lot to offer.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-27280-6_10">recent book chapter</a>, I identified five unique indigenous knowledge strategies practised in four coastal communities of Africa. These are: change in water colour; lunar observation; participatory mapping; yearly sacrifice to the gods; and extensive knowledge of local plants and animals.</p>
<p>I argue that drawing on local wisdom and expertise can enhance policies and mechanisms to protect people from the effects of frequent flooding in African coastal cities. </p>
<h2>Research aims and methods</h2>
<p>To identify the indigenous knowledge within these communities, I reviewed relevant literature, newspaper articles and social media outlets, and interviewed local residents of coastal communities. These were in Lagos and Delta States in Nigeria, Durban in South Africa, and Accra in Ghana. </p>
<p>I aimed to understand practices in these communities that related to flood resilience and adaptation.</p>
<p>I discovered that people had useful indigenous knowledge about predicting and mapping flood risks. But this knowledge was fragmented and there wasn’t a cohesive framework to put it into practice.</p>
<p>People said that knowledge wasn’t being documented and shared. Also, religion and education influenced perceptions about the value of the knowledge. </p>
<h2>Five indigenous knowledge strategies</h2>
<p><strong>Change in water colour:</strong> Local residents in Delta State, Nigeria told me how they knew that a flood was about to occur: there was a sudden change in the colour of the water from clear to deep brown. The flood usually followed the change in water colour after 24 to 48 hours. This warning sign gave the community time to take precautions, such as evacuating low-lying areas and securing belongings.</p>
<p><strong>Lunar observation:</strong> People in the Anlo coastal community in Ghana’s Volta Region study the moon and use it to predict flood years. They said an approaching full moon during the peak of rainfall indicated that flood was imminent. They understand the moon’s influence on tidal patterns and its correlation with flood events, empowering them to act in advance.</p>
<p><strong>Participatory mapping approach:</strong> In Accra and Durban, some residents have developed a participatory mapping approach which helps them prepare for floods. They map their surroundings, including vulnerable areas and natural resources. This enables them to identify areas prone to flooding and assess the effectiveness of existing nature-based solutions such as mangroves or wetlands. They can also find ways to reduce flood risks.</p>
<p><strong>Yearly sacrifice to the gods:</strong> The chief priest of the Isheri community in Lagos described an annual sacrifice performed to appease the gods and cope with flooding. This indigenous practice reflects the cultural and spiritual beliefs of the community.</p>
<p><strong>Knowledge of local flora and fauna:</strong> The coastal communities I studied had a deep knowledge of local plants and animals and their ecological significance. They knew about the impact of climate change on these species. Through their close interactions with the environment, people had observed changes in the behaviour, distribution and abundance of species, providing valuable insights into the effects of climate change.</p>
<h2>From practice to policy</h2>
<p>These unique indigenous knowledge practices offer opportunities to build resilient coastal communities. So it is disheartening that their recognition and integration into mainstream efforts remains limited. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-27280-6_10">study</a> proposes that the new models and innovations for resilience practice should draw on indigenous knowledge.</p>
<p>The starting point is for policymakers to acknowledge its value. Ways must be found to work together, creating and sharing knowledge. Such platforms should bring together scientists, experts, policymakers and indigenous communities to foster mutual learning, respect and understanding.</p>
<p>Communities also need help to build their capacity and strengthen their role in resilience initiatives. This includes supporting initiatives that document and preserve indigenous knowledge, recognising its cultural and historical significance. </p>
<p>Investments should be made in education and training that promotes the transmission of indigenous knowledge to younger generations, ensuring its continuity and relevance in the face of evolving environmental challenges.</p>
<p>By embracing the authentic integration of scientific and indigenous knowledge, we can pave the way for more comprehensive, context-specific and sustainable approaches to flood resilience in African coastal cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223145/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. </span></em></p>In African coastal communities, traditional knowledge helps residents to anticipate and prepare for potential flooding events.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.