tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/floods-348/articlesFloods – The Conversation2024-03-13T20:37:18Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223312024-03-13T20:37:18Z2024-03-13T20:37:18ZDespite positive steps in British Columbia, animal welfare in disaster management remains overlooked<p>Disasters serve as focusing events, providing a “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brent-Doberstein/publication/372308431_The_post-disaster_window_The_2021_British_Columbia_atmospheric_rivers_phenomenon_as_a_focusing_event_for_policy_change/links/64aecdc995bbbe0c6e2f0a85/The-post-disaster-window-The-2021-British-Columbia-atmospheric-rivers-phenomenon-as-a-focusing-event-for-policy-change.pdf">window of opportunity</a>” to reassess practices, propose new policies and animate the human decisions that make communities vulnerable to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html">climate-related</a> disasters. </p>
<p>Elisabeth Stoddard, associate professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, and I set out to understand the relationship between <a href="https://www.worldanimalprotection.ca/news/understanding-2021-abbotsford-floods">animal agriculture and climate change</a>. To do so, we focused on the impacts of disasters, alongside examining the common disaster management practices deployed in Canada, using the example of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">Abbotsford Floods</a>.</p>
<p>On Nov. 17, 2021, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia was inundated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100441">atmospheric floodwaters</a> resulting in the deaths of at least 500 cows, thousands of pigs and over a hundred thousand birds. The Abbotsford flood was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/farm-animals-suffered-in-b-c-floods-despite-existing-disaster-management-guidelines-172353">largest-ever agricultural and animal welfare disaster in B.C. history</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canada-needs-to-dramatically-update-how-it-prepares-for-and-manages-emergencies-221959">Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies</a>
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<p>In 2023, the province announced the <a href="https://www.leg.bc.ca/Pages/BCLASS-Legacy.aspx#%2Fcontent%2Fdata%2520-%2520ldp%2Fpages%2F42nd4th%2F3rd_read%2Fgov31-3.htm">Emergency and Disaster Management Act</a> that pivoted away from a response-based approach to one centred around four distinct phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Despite updating the legislation, our research shows animal disaster management remains overlooked. </p>
<p>This research highlights the need for sustained civil engagement and legislative interventions on two key issues: 1) the nuances of animal rescue and welfare; and 2) the strained resiliency of agricultural communities. </p>
<h2>Animal rescue and welfare</h2>
<p>B.C. emergency management protocols give producers four options regarding farmed animals during disasters. Farmers can either a) shelter-in-place, b) relocate on-farm, c) evacuate off-farm or d) release their livestock. We also found that options were further restricted depending on the farmed species.</p>
<p>For example, to shelter-in-place often remains the only option for pigs, chickens and turkeys due to biosecurity concerns, logistical challenges and simple cost-benefit analysis from an agricultural perspective. Indeed, we found — through a <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/enSearch/detail?id=7AFDBC16F15F42E289E9F7DDB0F80C40&recorduid=AGR-2022-21591">Freedom of Information request</a> — that most of the reimbursements for relocation distributed by the <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/business-market-development/emergency-management/livestock-relocation">Livestock Relocation Policy</a> went to dairy and beef producers. </p>
<p>Of those producers, many opted to evacuate their animals directly to an auction yard or abattoir due to the loss of rangeland or destroyed farm infrastructure.</p>
<p>These considerations are further complicated by the different production lifespans of various species. Long-term welfare impacts are mostly only relevant within dairy and beef production since on average, chickens only live around 40 days before slaughter — and pigs only around six months. By comparison, cows can live upwards of five years in production before slaughter — a fact which helps to partly explain the extreme disparity in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">water, land and energy costs in beef production</a> as opposed to other animal products. </p>
<p>Studies show that cows rescued from floods have compromised immune systems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14243984">slower rates of growth</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33045630/">higher rates of miscarriages</a>, and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.012">increased methane emissions</a>. These long-term impacts can lead to the eventual decision by producers to euthanize animals.</p>
<p>In fact, the 2021 <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/agriculture-seafood/programs/agriculture-insurance-and-income-protection-programs/flood-recovery">Canada-British Columbia Flood Recovery Program for Food Security</a> anticipated these continued losses and extended coverage for costs associated with post-disaster welfare and losses for an additional year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-address-the-interconnected-harms-to-people-animals-and-ecosystems-in-train-derailments-210357">Why we must address the interconnected harms to people, animals and ecosystems in train derailments</a>
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<p>This flags the need for transparency, and a mandatory reporting mechanism concerning post-disaster animal welfare to accurately represent the <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/irpp.1868">long-term</a> repercussions of disasters. </p>
<h2>Strained resiliency</h2>
<p>Increasingly, disaster relief is becoming the <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745339542/disasters-and-social-reproduction/">responsibility of individual communities and civil society</a>. However, these communities are often under-resourced, untrained and not integrated formally into emergency response. </p>
<p>Our research pointed to the oversized role agricultural communities have in responding to disasters, often leading to <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-related-disasters-leave-behind-trauma-and-worse-mental-health-housing-uncertainty-is-a-major-reason-why-206861">post-traumatic stress disorder and other psychological harms</a>. There are also instances where producers will even decide to leave agricultural production entirely.</p>
<p>Many members of the Abbotsford community felt abandoned and exploited by the government after the floods, leading to resentment, frustration and mistrust towards formal emergency management. </p>
<p>While communities took pride in their ability to support each other with the limited resources they had, interviews and post-disaster research revealed the immediate and long-term impacts of this approach should be taken seriously, including acknowledging the barrier it creates for future collaboration between communities and emergency management.</p>
<p>It is essential that we build capacity in communities by supporting, resourcing, and legitimizing <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/DPM-05-2018-">community-first responder models</a>. In doing so, we can help communities and farmers gradually become integral aspects of formal emergency management systems as <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-management/local-emergency-programs/volunteers">public safety volunteers</a>. </p>
<h2>Real change has yet to come</h2>
<p>Following the floods, the Abbotsford municipal government focused on returning producers to production by restocking barns and drafting plans to improve <a href="https://letstalkabbotsford.ca/abbotsfordfloodresponse">flood-mitigation infrastructure</a>. On the provincial side, the government has begun to update emergency legislation with its Emergency and Disaster Management Act. </p>
<p>These are important steps, but they fail to engage with the more thorny issues related to animal disaster management. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-must-stop-treating-climate-disasters-like-unexpected-humanitarian-crises-216153">Canada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises</a>
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<p>Our research shows the need for transparency regarding animal rescue and welfare issues, as well as mobilization around community-based solutions, such as by formalizing the community first-responder model and integrating it into official emergency management. </p>
<p>Without these critical interventions at the social and political level, we can continue to expect the same outcomes for communities living on the front lines of climate-fuelled disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Eccles receives funding from World Animal Protection (Canada), FRQSC, NSERC-CREATE, and Concordia University.</span></em></p>Despite improvements in disaster response management since the Abbotsford floods of 2021, long-term animal welfare remains woefully underappreciated in B.C.Stephanie Eccles, PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, Concordia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2185452024-03-11T10:04:45Z2024-03-11T10:04:45ZEast Africa must prepare for more extreme rainfall during the short rainy season – new study<p>East Africa has recently had an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150712/worst-drought-on-record-parches-horn-of-africa">unprecedented series of failed rains</a>. But some rainy seasons are bringing the opposite: huge amounts of rainfall. </p>
<p>In the last few months of 2023, the rainy season, known as the “short rains”, was much wetter than normal. It brought severe flooding to Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania. In Somalia, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1144202">more than</a> 2 million people were affected, with over 100 killed and 750,000 displaced from their homes. Tens of thousands of people in northern Kenya <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/12/15/floods-have-washed-away-entire-villages-kenyas-rains-made-twice-as-intense-by-climate-chan">lost</a> livestock, farmland and homes. </p>
<p>The very wet short rainy seasons are linked to a climate event known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (known as the “IOD”). And climate model projections <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00943-1">show an increasing trend</a> of extreme Indian Ocean dipoles. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105258">new research paper</a>, we set out to investigate what effect more frequent extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events would have on rainfall in east Africa. We did this using a large number of climate simulations and models.</p>
<p>Our results show that they increase the likelihood of very wet days – therefore making very wet seasons. </p>
<p>This could lead to extreme weather events, even more extreme than the floods of 1997, which led to <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/w7832e/w7832e00.htm">10 million people requiring emergency assistance</a>, or those of 2019, when <a href="https://fews.net/east-africa/special-report/january-2020">hundreds of thousands were displaced</a>.</p>
<p>We recommend that decision-makers plan for this kind of extreme rainfall, and the resulting devastating floods.</p>
<h2>How the Indian Ocean Dipole works</h2>
<p>Indian Ocean Dipole events tend to occur in the second half of the year, and can last for months. They have two phases: positive and negative. </p>
<p>Positive events occur when the temperature of the sea surface in the western Indian Ocean is warmer than normal and the temperature in the eastern Indian Ocean is cooler than normal. Put simply, this temperature difference <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/43854">happens when</a> winds move warmer water away from the ocean surface in the eastern region, allowing cooler water to rise. </p>
<p>In the warmer western Indian Ocean, more heated air will rise, along with water vapour. This forms clouds, bringing rain. Meanwhile, the eastern part of the Indian Ocean will be cooler and drier. This is why flooding in east Africa can happen at the same time as <a href="https://theconversation.com/indian-ocean-linked-to-bushfires-and-drought-in-australia-20893">bushfires in Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The opposite is true for negative dipole events: drier in the western Indian Ocean and wetter in the east. </p>
<p>Under climate change we’re expecting to see more frequent and more extreme positive dipole events – bigger differences between east and west. This is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-climate-change-will-cause-more-strong-indian-ocean-dipole-events/">shown by climate model projections</a>. They are believed to be driven by different paces of warming across the tropical Indian Ocean – with western and northern regions projected to warm faster than eastern parts.</p>
<p>Often heavy rain seasons in east Africa are attributed to El Niño, but <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1015">recent research</a> has shown that the direct impact of El Niño on east African rainfall is actually relatively modest. El Niño’s principal influence lies in its capacity to bring about positive dipole events. This occurs since El Niño events tend to cool the water in the western Pacific Ocean – around Indonesia – which also helps to cool down the water in the eastern Indian Ocean. These cooler temperatures then help kick-start a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.</p>
<h2>Examining unprecedented events</h2>
<p>Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events are rare in the recent climate record. So to examine their potential impacts on rainfall extremes, we used a large set of climate simulations. The data allowed us to diagnose the sensitivity of rainfall to larger Indian Ocean Dipole events in a statistically robust way.</p>
<p>Our results show that as positive dipole events become more extreme, more wet days during the short rains season can be expected. This effect was found to be largest for the frequency of extremely wet days. Additionally, we found that as the dipole strength increases, the influence on the most extreme days becomes even larger. This means that dipole events which are even slightly “record-breaking” could lead to unprecedented levels of seasonal rainfall. </p>
<p>Ultimately, if positive Indian Ocean Dipole seasons increase in frequency, as predicted, regular seasons of flooding impacts will become a new normal.</p>
<p>One aspect not included in our analysis is the influence of a warmer atmosphere on rainfall extremes. A warmer atmosphere <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall/">holds more moisture</a>, allowing for the development of more intense rain storms. This effect could combine with the influence of extreme positive dipoles to bring unprecedented levels of rainfall to the Horn of Africa. </p>
<p>2023 was <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record">a year of record-breaking temperatures driven both by El Niño and global warming</a>. We might expect that this warmer air could have intensified rain storms during the season. Indeed, evidence from <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-indian-ocean-dipole-compounding-natural-hazards-and-high-vulnerability-increased-severity-of-flooding-in-the-horn-of-africa/">a recent assessment</a> suggests that climate change-driven warming is highly likely responsible for increased rainfall totals. </p>
<h2>Responding to an unprecedented future</h2>
<p>Policymakers need to plan for this. </p>
<p>In the long term it is crucial to ensure that any new infrastructure is robust to withstand more frequent and heavier rains, and that government, development and humanitarian actors have the capacity to respond to the challenges.</p>
<p>Better use of technology, such as innovations in <a href="https://fastaweather.com/">disseminating satellite rainfall monitoring via mobile phones</a>, can communicate immediate risk. <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/ai-churns-out-lightning-fast-forecasts-good-weather-agencies">New frontiers in AI-based weather prediction</a> could improve the ability to anticipate localised rain storms, including <a href="https://www.wfp.org/publications/2023-machine-learning-early-warning-systems">initiatives focusing on eastern Africa</a> specifically. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g_06jBU-ag">Linking rainfall information with hydrological models designed for dryland environments</a> is also essential. These will help to translate weather forecasts into impact forecasts, such as identifying risks of flash flooding down normally dry channels or bank overflow of key rivers in drylands.</p>
<p>These technological improvements are crucial. But better use of the forecast information we already have can also make a big difference. For instance, initiatives like <a href="https://www.climatecentre.org/priority_areas/fbf-ibf/">“forecast-based financing”</a>, pioneered by the Red Cross Red Crescent movement, link forecast triggers to pre-approved financing and predefined action plans, helping communities protect themselves before hazards have even started.</p>
<p>For these endeavours to succeed, there must be dialogue between the science and practitioner communities. The scientific community can work with practitioners to integrate key insights into decisions, while practitioners can help to ensure research efforts target critical needs. With this, we can effectively build resilience to natural hazards and resist the increasing risks of our changing climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik W. Kolstad receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme through the CONFER project (grant 869730)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katerina Michaelides receives funding from EU H2020, the FCDO and the Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Singer receives funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David MacLeod does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Projections show that there’ll be Indian Ocean dipoles in the future – and that means more rainy days, and more extreme rainfall.David MacLeod, Lecturer in Climate Risk, Cardiff UniversityErik W. Kolstad, Research professor, Uni ResearchKaterina Michaelides, Professor of Dryland Hydrology, School of Geographical Sciences, University of BristolMichael Singer, Professor of Hydrology and Geomorphology, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249022024-03-07T22:03:41Z2024-03-07T22:03:41ZFlood risk mapping is a public good, so why the public resistance in Canada? Lessons from Nova Scotia<p>Flood risk maps are an essential public good. Indeed, many countries like the <a href="https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/">United Kingdom already offer flood risk mapping</a>.</p>
<p>Canada committed to a public flood risk mapping portal in the <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap4-en.html#Raising%20Awareness%20of%20Flood%20Risks">2023 budget</a>. However, despite the <a href="https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/climate/impacts/climate-water-is-the-new-fire">increasing frequency and impact of large, catastrophic floods</a>, we still have a sparse patchwork of flood risk maps at municipal and provincial scale. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://floodsmartcanada.ca/floodplain-maps/">flood mapping that does exist</a> is hard to find, of uncertain quality and currency, and often <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5206284/bad-flood-map-canada/">difficult for non-experts to understand and apply</a>. </p>
<p>The unacknowledged reason why there is a lack of flood risk mapping in Canada is because such maps generally face public resistance. Indeed, it is not uncommon in Canada to see flood or wetland mapping <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-withdraws-30-municipalities-from-contested-flood-zone-maps-1.4509236">withdrawn or modified</a> because of public pressure. </p>
<p>I led two survey-based studies recently with former graduate student Samantha Howard and post-doctoral fellow Brooke McWherter to understand how people in flood-prone areas of Nova Scotia perceive publicly available flood maps. We found wide agreement about the benefits of such maps — until we asked about the <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/treading-water-impact-of-catastrophic-flooding-on-canadas-housing-market/">impact on real estate value</a>. </p>
<h2>The case of Nova Scotia</h2>
<p>Nova Scotia faces some of the <a href="https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/8-0/">highest sea level rise in Canada</a> under current climate change projections. Yet last week, the Nova Scotia government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-environment-tim-halman-climate-change-1.7125745">decided not to proceed with the long-awaited Coastal Protection Act (CPA)</a>, which had been passed with all-party assent in 2019. </p>
<p>Among other things, the act would have regulated how close people could build to the ocean based on assessments of sea level, storm projections and information about the elevation and erosion risk of each section of coast. This would have protected people and infrastructure, as well as sensitive coastal ecosystems, and left space for ocean dynamics. </p>
<p>In lieu of the act, the Nova Scotia government released a <a href="https://novascotia.ca/coastal-climate-change/">new website</a> featuring resources to help individual coastal property owners make decisions about their bit of coastline, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/municipalities-nova-scotia-coastal-protection-act-1.7021006">leaving dozens of rural coastal municipalities</a> in the lurch. One of those resources was a new <a href="https://nsgi.novascotia.ca/chm">coastal hazard map</a>. </p>
<p>The lengthy disclaimer you need to agree to before you can access the map immediately erodes its trustworthiness. Moreover, while people may trust any good news they see in its data, they may still be at risk due to the tool’s many data and design flaws. To supplement this tool, Nova Scotia has <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10317417/new-coastal-protection-plan-nova-scotia/">committed to finishing detailed flood line mapping by 2027</a>. </p>
<p>It is too soon to know how people are responding to this tool, but we know it does not take a lot of unhappy constituents to make a government nervous, especially if those constituents hold financial or political power. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/coastal-protection-act-tim-halman-environment-climate-change-1.6959599">The public engagement associated with the CPA was, after all, overwhelmingly in support of proclaiming and regulating under the act</a>. Yet here we are. </p>
<h2>Drivers of resistance</h2>
<p>The first survey we ran in 2021 — through an online link sent via Canada Post to all residents in two towns in Southwestern Nova Scotia — showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">one in six people felt flood risk mapping presented too big a risk for real estate value</a>. Our second survey of about 1100 house residents around the Minas Basin, Nova Scotia, in 2022 found that <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10222/83004">one in three residents expressed concern about real estate value</a>. Both studies had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.</p>
<p>The first survey had a smaller response rate but represented the population demographics better. The second was biased toward older respondents and those with higher incomes. </p>
<p>Moving back to our original question — why doesn’t everyone see flood risk mapping as a public good?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-billion-dollar-disasters-list-shattered-the-us-record-with-28-big-weather-and-climate-disasters-amid-earths-hottest-year-on-record-220634">2023's billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth's hottest year on record</a>
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<p>We used slightly different questions in the two studies to understand the drivers of resistance to flood risk mapping based on perceived impact on real estate value. What emerged speaks to the challenge of inspiring long-term and collective thinking about climate change. </p>
<p>Firstly, being focused on oneself rather than others was a reliable predictor of resistance in both studies. </p>
<p>Resistance in the first study was associated with agreeing to the following statements: “I am not able to cope with the land changes required to deal with significant increases in flood risk at this point in my life,” and “flood management decisions I make do not have implications for others.” The latter is demonstrably untrue: shoreline armouring, for instance, can have negative effects for neighbours. In the second study, being focused on others and having descendants led to less resistance. </p>
<p>Self-orientation was a strong underlying driver of resistance. It reduced a person’s likelihood of focusing on others, the future or the biosphere. People already make decisions to suit their own situation, just as the Nova Scotia government is now <a href="https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/morning-file/the-houston-government-thinks-we-can-use-an-app-to-ward-off-storm-damage-and-sea-level-rise-individually-we-cant/#N1">encouraging coastal landowners to do</a>. Yet in these kinds of scenarios, collective and ecological interests are forgotten.</p>
<p>Secondly, the more vulnerable a person felt to flood risk, the more likely they were to oppose maps that would allow others to see their flood risk. This variable was only a strong signal of resistance in the second study when we used a combination of flood likelihood and vulnerability to measure it. This might also explain why resistance was twice as high in the 2022 survey than the one in 2021. It could be a regional difference based on actual differences in risk, or differences in survey method and thus respondent population, but it could also reflect increasing flood frequency and severity.</p>
<p>The second survey was still in the field when <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/weather-snoddon-fiona-recap-1.6976249">Hurricane Fiona</a> hit Atlantic Canada. This timing suggests that instead of becoming more open to climate adaptation information like flood maps as flooding events occur, we might become less open as we seek to protect the value of our biggest investments: our homes. </p>
<h2>Moving forward</h2>
<p>A clue to the path ahead may be found in our first study, where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12836">those who had previously seen a flood map for their region</a> were slightly less likely to be resistant to public flood risk maps. This might indicate that such resistance is mostly borne of fear of the unknown. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-are-superheroes-expert-sets-out-how-they-protect-people-and-places-221995">Wetlands are superheroes: expert sets out how they protect people and places</a>
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<p>We urgently need high quality, public flood risk maps that the government stands by (including with planning regulations). Then we can focus on rethinking what it means to live a good coastal life in the face of climate change, and how we collectively support those who may face decreases in home or land value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Sherren or her trainees received funding for this work from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, and the Nova Scotia Government. </span></em></p>Public concerns for real estate value, and a focus on the self, make flood risk maps unpopular. However, these concerns should not dissuade governments from providing resources we can all trust.Kate Sherren, Professor, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247072024-03-05T16:30:30Z2024-03-05T16:30:30ZHow countries in conflict zones can recover from floods – lessons from Pakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578963/original/file-20240229-20-88ie0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family crosses the flooded streets of Pakistan in 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Gerhard JˆrÈn/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 6,000 people died and at least 11,000 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/18/libya-floods-conflicting-death-tolls-greek-aid-workers-die-in-crash#:%7E:text=Confusion%20has%20emerged%20over%20the,killed%20elsewhere%20in%20eastern%20Libya">reportedly disappeared</a> in the aftermath of the destructive flood that hit Libya on <a href="https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-flooding-libya">September 10 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Infrastructure in north-eastern Libya has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">seriously damaged</a>. The economy continues to suffer and companies that are crucial partners for reconstruction and development have been forced to close due to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/90695">flood damage</a>. With more than <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/unhcr-update-libya-september-2023-enar">40,000 people</a> still displaced, labour shortages continue and essential services, including healthcare, remain disrupted. </p>
<p>This severe flooding highlighted the vulnerability of Libya – a country already grappling with political instability, <a href="https://www.rulac.org/publications/libya-a-short-guide-to-the-conflict">ongoing conflict</a> and a deteriorating economy – to climate-related threats. </p>
<p>Libya and other flood-hit countries, especially in conflict zones, could learn a lot from Pakistan, where the plans for recovery from similar floods in 2022 differ in some significant ways. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s response to its floods included a comprehensive <a href="https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publications/pakistan-floods-2022-post-disaster-needs-assessment-pdna">post-disaster needs assessment</a>, a strategy that outlines clear priorities for rebuilding livelihoods, agriculture and public infrastructure over the coming five years. </p>
<p>Libya’s approach lacks this forward planning. Without conducting a comprehensive assessment of what a country needs, meaningful recovery efforts cannot be effectively carried out.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework">United Nations Sendai framework</a>, a global agreement that guides countries in reducing the risks of natural disasters, emphasises the importance of “building back better” in recovery to reduce vulnerabilities of a place and its people. </p>
<p>However, most disaster management doesn’t focus on long-term recovery. My research in disaster recovery and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">climate change adaptation</a> indicates that the best route for the development of comprehensive and sustainable plans is for the government and relevant organisations to rebuild affected communities, repair damaged infrastructure and provide ongoing social, economic and health support. </p>
<p>Now that initial response and relief efforts have been rolled out across Libya’s affected regions, the focus needs to shift to consider the long-term recovery of these communities. </p>
<h2>The damage of debt</h2>
<p>The country also needs to consider how it funds its recovery. Developing countries tend to rely heavily on loans to <a href="https://floodresilience.net/resources/item/2020-floods-in-tabasco-lessons-learned-for-strengthening-social-capital/">fund recovery programmes</a>. Countries, including Pakistan, are often forced to continue paying existing loans in the aftermath of disasters instead of spending new funds on recovery. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s journey towards recovery from the major floods of <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/news/pakistan-flooding-one-year-later">2010 and 2011</a> is a stark example of the challenges countries face when burdened with heavy debt. In order to rebuild and rehabilitate, Pakistan borrowed a staggering estimated <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$20 billion to US$40 billion</a>. This came at a significant cost.</p>
<p>In 2021, the burden of repaying debts amounted to <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$11.9 billion annually</a> accounting for 32% of the Pakistan government’s revenue. Consequently, Pakistan’s capacity to effectively respond to the 2022 floods was severely restricted. Ironically, the country accumulated more debt in addressing the aftermath of these floods than it received in humanitarian support in 2022.</p>
<p>Countries like Libya need to carefully manage their borrowing to avoid long-term economic challenges and debt burdens. Pakistan’s experience showed that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-floods/">private donations</a> from within the country can be a significant source of funds, alongside the international giving that is more common.</p>
<p>Libya could explore alternative funding sources such as international grants, loans from international financial institutions, redirecting existing budget allocations and generating additional revenue domestically through stimulating economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close up shot of boy drinking clean fresh water from outside tap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2010 Pakistan was hit by one of the largest natural disasters the world has ever seen. Ten years’ worth of rain falling in just two weeks resulted in extreme flooding across much of the country. Access to clean drinking water became a huge issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Vicki Francis/DFID/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Road to recovery</h2>
<p>There is also a more literal question of how to rebuild. In Pakistan, the reconstruction of damaged roads, bridges, power stations, schools, hospitals and homes involved a collaborative approach. Inspired by the self-resilience housing model developed by Yasmeen Lari, <a href="https://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/staff/professor-yasmeen-lari">Pakistan’s first female architect</a>, local community involvement was key. </p>
<p>This model also promotes sustainability and generates local employment by using locally sourced materials, such as mud bricks. Instead of relying on conventional and expensive building materials like cement blocks, local people make mud bricks using locally sourced clay and other natural materials that are easily replaceable in the future. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s self-resilience housing approach taps into the benefits of short supply chains and creates local jobs in the process. Libya needs to draw lessons from this strategy for rebuilding infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Looking down over sandy ground, brown mud bricks drying in vast rows on the ground, a few trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mud bricks are made by local communities in Pakistan as part of efforts to improve resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bricks-made-mud-putting-row-2404684131">nadeemshahzad/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Recovery efforts should not only focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure. Strengthening economic, social and environmental resilience must be prioritised too. As seen in Pakistan, millions of people are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/pakistan-flood-victims-crises-collide-fuel-growing-hunger">still struggling</a> to find a sustainable means of livelihood and <a href="https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-emergencies/world/climate-change-and-pakistan-flooding-affecting-millions">clean water</a> remains a pressing issue in many affected areas. </p>
<p>Social and psychological support is just as important. That includes counselling services and mental health systems to address trauma, grief and loss. </p>
<p>A 2022 <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.890671">study</a> by Iranian researchers revealed that post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms were particularly prevalent after extreme flood events. Another <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2022-pakistan-floods/">2022 report</a> showed that Pakistan flood survivors who were given professional psychological support recovered more rapidly and completely.</p>
<p>To pave the way for recovery in Libya, additional support will be needed, particularly in terms of temporary shelters, medicine and access to health facilities and sanitation services. </p>
<p>Coordinated local action and stable governance will help fragile regions like Libya and Pakistan to strengthen communities and prepare for more inevitable climate shocks. Peace building needs to be an integral part of climate crisis recovery, prevention and readiness.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. He is grateful to have received grants supporting his research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.</span></em></p>Our expert in disaster recovery and climate change adaptation calls for a longer-term response to conflict zones affected by severe flooding, such as Libya and Pakistan.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246142024-02-28T19:15:46Z2024-02-28T19:15:46ZWhat we know about last year’s top 10 wild Australian climatic events – from fire and flood combos to cyclone-driven extreme rain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578474/original/file-20240228-28-s80sff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C3085%2C2120&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Japan Meteorological Agency, Himawari-8</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fire. Flood. Fire and flood together. Double-whammy storms. Unprecedented rainfall. Heatwaves. Climate change is making some of Australia’s weather more extreme. In 2023, the country was hit by a broad range of particularly intense events, with economy-wide impacts. Winter was the warmest in a record going back to 1910, while we had the driest September since at least 1900.</p>
<p>We often see extreme weather as distinct events in the news. But it can be useful to look at what’s happening over the year. </p>
<p>Today, more than 30 of Australia’s leading climate scientists <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/the-state-of-weather-and-climate-extremes-2023/">released a report</a> analysing ten major weather events in 2023, from early fires to low snowpack to compound events. </p>
<p>Can we say how much climate change contributed to these events? Not yet. It normally takes several years of research before we can clearly say what role climate change played. But the longer term trends are well established – more frequent, more intense heatwaves over most of Australia, marine heatwave days more than doubling over the last century, and short, intense rainfall events intensifying in some areas. </p>
<h2>What happened in 2023?</h2>
<p><strong>January. Event #1: Record-breaking rain in the north (NT, WA, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>The year began with above-average rainfall in northern Australia influenced by the “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64950045">triple-dip</a>” La Niña phase. </p>
<p>Some parts of the country were already experiencing heavy rainfall even before Cyclone Ellie arrived. From late December 2022 to early January 2023, Ellie brought heavy rainfall to Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, resulting in a one-in-100-year flooding of the Fitzroy River. Interestingly, Cyclone Ellie was only a “weak” Category 1 tropical cyclone. So why did it cause so much damage? In their analysis, climate scientists suggest it was actually low wind speeds in the mid-troposphere which allowed the system to stall and keep raining.</p>
<p><strong>February–March. Event 2: Extreme rain and food shortages (NT, QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Climate scientists observed the same behaviour from late February to early March 2023, when a persistent slow-moving low-pressure system known as a monsoonal low dumped heavy, widespread rain over the Northern Territory and north-west Queensland. The resulting floods cut transport routes in the NT, and led to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/flooding-logistics-freight-issues-nt-wa-food-supplies-rail-road/102057556">food shortages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>June–August. Event 3 and 4: Warmest winter, little snow (NSW)</strong></p>
<p>After a wet start to the year, conditions became drier and warmer in southern and eastern Australia. New South Wales experienced its warmest winter on record, with daily maximums more than 2°C above the long-term average. </p>
<p>The unusual heat and lack of precipitation translated into the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/snow-season-hanging-in-there-by-a-thread/1466746">second-worst</a> snow season on record (the worst was 2006). </p>
<p><strong>September. Event 5: Record heatwave (SA)</strong></p>
<p>In September, South Australia faced a record-breaking heatwave. Temperatures reached as high as 38°C in Ceduna. As warming continues, scientists suggest unusual heat and heatwaves during the cool season will become more frequent and intense. </p>
<p>September also saw <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20230919.archive.shtml">El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole</a> declared by the Bureau of Meteorology. When these two climate drivers combine, we have a higher chance of a warm and dry Australia, particularly during late winter and spring. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">2023's extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters</a>
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<p><strong>October. Event 6, 7 and 8: Fire-and-flood compound event (VIC), compound wind and rain storms (TAS), unusually early fires (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>Dry conditions gave rise to an unseasonably early fire season in Victoria and Queensland. In October, Queensland’s Western Downs region was hit hard. Dozens of houses and two lives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/community-cost-of-devastating-tara-qld-bushfire/103055968">were lost</a> in the town of Tara. </p>
<p>The same month, Victoria’s Gippsland region was hit by back-to-back fires and floods, a phenomenon known as a <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/what-is-a-compound-event-in-weather-and-climate/">compound event</a>. </p>
<p>While it’s difficult to attribute these events to climate change, scientists say hot and dry winters make Australia more prone to early season fires. </p>
<p>Also in October, a different compound event struck Tasmania in the form of successive low-pressure systems. The first dumped a month’s worth of rain in a few days over much of the state, while the second brought strong winds. The rain from the first storm loosened the soil, making it easier for trees to be blown down. </p>
<p>Scientists say the combined effects were more severe than if just one of these events occurred without the other. Such extreme wind-and-rain compound events are expected to occur more frequently in regions such as the tropics as the climate continues to change.</p>
<p><strong>November. Event 9: Supercell thunderstorm trashed crops (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In November, a supercell thunderstorm hit Queensland’s south-east, destroying A$50 million worth of crops and farming equipment. Initial research suggests extreme winds and thunderstorms <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-say-yet-if-grid-breaking-thunderstorms-are-getting-worse-but-we-shouldnt-wait-to-find-out-224148">may become</a> more likely under climate change, but more work is needed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="crops hailstorm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578530/original/file-20240228-26-sb2tl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The hailstorm ripped through crops in Queensland’s Lockyer Valley, a big agricultural area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>December. Event 10: Unprecedented flooding from Cyclone Jasper (QLD)</strong></p>
<p>In mid-December, Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in north Queensland. The system weakened into a tropical low and then stalled over Cape York. The weather system’s northerly winds drew in moist air from the Coral Sea, which collided with drier winds from the south-east. This caused persistent heavy rainfall over the region – up to 2 metres in places. Catchments flooded across the region, causing widespread damage to roads, buildings and crops. Similar to ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie, most damage occurred after landfall as the system stalled and dumped rain. </p>
<h2>Climate change can make extreme weather even more extreme</h2>
<p>It’s generally easier to identify and understand the role of human-caused climate change in large-scale extreme events, particularly temperature extremes. So we can say 2023’s exceptional winter heat was probably intensified by what we have done to the climate system. </p>
<p>For smaller-scale extremes, it is often harder to determine the role of climate change, but there’s some evidence short, intense rainfall events are getting even more intense as the world warms. Early-season bushfires and low snow cover are consistent with what we expect under global warming.</p>
<p>There’s also an increasing threat from the risk of compound events where concurrent or consecutive extreme events can amplify damage. </p>
<p>Australia’s intense weather events during 2023 are broadly what we can expect to see as the world keeps getting hotter and hotter due to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases humanity continues to emit. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-heating-may-breach-1-5-c-in-2024-heres-what-that-could-look-like-220877">Global heating may breach 1.5°C in 2024 – here's what that could look like</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laure Poncet receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>Last year was the hottest in recorded history. That heat led to a range of unusually intense weather events across Australia.Laure Poncet, Research officer, UNSW SydneyAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147122024-01-28T19:05:07Z2024-01-28T19:05:07ZDo we want a wind farm outside our window? What Australians think about the net zero transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557393/original/file-20231103-19-qqubic.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1735%2C1796&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/man-in-white-dress-shirt-and-blue-denim-jeans-sitting-on-white-and-black-solar-panel-wmaP3Tl80ww">Bill Mead, Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A paradox lies at the heart of Australian public opinion about climate change. While there is clear general support for substantial government action to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, there is also strong concern about the local impacts of new renewable energy infrastructure. </p>
<p>The rise of protest groups in regional Australia objecting to the installation of wind farms and transmission lines, in particular, presents a serious challenge to the Albanese government in communicating the importance of the net zero transition to the public.</p>
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<p>In principle it seems that Australians strongly support this transition. In a poll for the Australia Institute’s <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Climate-of-the-Nation-2023-Web.pdf">Climate of the Nation report</a> last year, two in three respondents went as far as to say our country should be a world leader in climate action.</p>
<p>Similarly, a 2020 <a href="https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/report/Australia_s_Clean_Technology_Future_Audience_Perceptions_and_Message_Framing/23896950">Monash University study</a> found eight out of ten Australians think the shift to renewable energy is inevitable, and two-thirds think we should be exporting renewable energy.</p>
<p>Studies also show <a href="https://doi.org/10.25919/fqbk-0y13">strong support</a> for renewable energy production through solar farms, with 90% of Australians prepared to live within ten kilometres of one, according to a 2021 CSIRO study. And a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">Guardian Essential poll</a> from October last year found about 70% of respondents supported solar farms and 60% supported both offshore and onshore wind farms.</p>
<h2>Local opposition to the net zero transition</h2>
<p>But at the same time the installation of these same wind farms has attracted strong local protests, especially in NSW and Victoria. There has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-clean-energy-grid-means-10-000km-of-new-transmission-lines-they-can-only-be-built-with-community-backing-187438">significant community pushback</a> to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s plan to install 10,000 kilometres of overground transmission lines, which are key to carrying renewable energy to the electricity grid. Only 35% of respondents in the Guardian Essential poll supported them. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113">Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how</a>
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<p>In an equally serious challenge for the net zero transition, 70% of respondents felt renewable energy should not be developed “at the expense of local communities”.</p>
<p>In a bid to address these concerns, the Australian Energy Market Commission has drafted <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/final-community-engagement-rules-major-transmission-projects">new community engagement rules</a> to ensure communities are involved early in the process of designing the routes of transmission lines.</p>
<p>The changes seek to ensure all stakeholders get information about a project in a clear and timely fashion (including advice on how they can best play a role) and have opportunities to be regularly involved throughout the planning of projects.</p>
<h2>A more nuanced look at public opinion</h2>
<p>There might be an even bigger issue that helps to explain the tension between apparent general support for acting to arrest global warming and local opposition to specific renewable energy projects. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">Segmentation studies</a>, first undertaken in 2008 by researchers at Yale and George Mason Universities in the United States, and replicated in many countries, including Australia, are valuable for explaining this apparent paradox.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912">From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now</a>
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<p>These studies break down views on climate change into segments of the population with different levels of concern. The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352154621000929?via%3Dihub">original research</a> divided American popular opinion into six groups: Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. </p>
<p>The spectrum ranges from those most worried about climate change and who tend to take the most action, both in their personal lives and politically, to those who either don’t accept climate change is happening, or feel it isn’t something we need to address.</p>
<p>A range of segmentation studies conducted in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2022.2048407">2011, 2016, 2020</a> <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">and 2022</a> by researchers from both Australia and the US show Australians have become more worried over time. The Alarmed segment more than doubled between 2011 and 2022.</p>
<p>However, the studies show different segments of the population have different views of when we need to act to arrest climate change. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://sunriseproject.org/compass/">2022 Climate Compass report</a> highlights that people in the Concerned segment — the largest group, comprising one in four Australians — feel climate change is a serious problem but that its impacts will be most felt by future generations. These Australians see cost of living as a much more urgent problem. </p>
<p>While the polling data do not show whether many protesters against renewable energy projects belong to the Concerned segment of the population, it remains essential to explore communication strategies that might move the large numbers of Australians who identify as Concerned into the Alarmed camp. One way to do this might be on the nightly TV news. </p>
<h2>Looking more closely at the weather</h2>
<p>From flooding to heat, many Australian extreme weather records <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/stateof2022/">have been broken</a> in recent years. Some people feel that is part and parcel of living in Australia, and remain unaware of the connection between climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather. And it can be difficult to translate complex climate phenomena into terms the public can easily understand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>Yet while the research is not conclusive, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-events-are-exactly-the-time-to-talk-about-climate-change-heres-why-210412#:%7E:text=But%20research%20offers%20contrasting%20results,these%20effects%20are%20only%20temporary.">good evidence</a> that floods, fires and heat waves increase popular concern about global warming by exposing the connection between extreme weather and climate change. <a href="https://www.monash.edu/mcccrh/publications/reports/a-survey-of-australian-tv-audiences-views-on-climate-change">Research from our centre</a> argues that weather presenters can play a greater role in making this connection clearer. Australians see weather presenters, along with climate scientists, farmers and fire fighters, as the most trusted sources of information about climate change. </p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Whether or not we fully understand the ways climate change is impacting our society, most Australians realise it’s only going to get worse unless we do something about it. We’ve now moved into the implementation phase of the net zero transition, but many doubt that we’ll achieve it in time. The Guardian Essential poll <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/31/guardian-essential-poll-results-labor-net-zero-climate-change-renewables#:%7E:text=The%20poll%20found%2038%25%20of,height%20of%20black%20summer%20bushfires.">showed just 31% of respondents</a> felt it was “very” or “quite” likely Australia would achieve its net zero target.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is crucial that we ramp up action towards transforming our energy sector, but it’s equally important that communities be part of deciding how this is achieved. In doing so, we can improve public support, and bring net zero within reach. </p>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucy Richardson has received funding from the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation for research on community attitudes to renewable energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ella Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians want government to act on climate change, but not necessarily now, or in their neighbourhood. How can governments resolve this dilemma?Lucy Richardson, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub, Monash UniversityElla Healy, Operations Manager, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135482024-01-22T19:04:52Z2024-01-22T19:04:52ZWhen floodwater reaches the sea, it can leave a 50 metre thick layer of brown water – and cause real problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570535/original/file-20240122-20-4lzjgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C0%2C4223%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over this wet summer, Melburnians and Sydneysiders have had to think twice about cooling off at their local beach. Heavy rainfall has swollen rivers and pumped pollutants, nutrients and murky fresh water far out to sea. Swimmers at Port Phillip Bay beaches are emerging <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-bay-has-turned-brown-and-swimmers-are-emerging-coated-in-a-strange-goo-20240118-p5ey9u.html">coated in brown goo</a>, while Sydney’s seas were contaminated <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-is-having-a-scorcher-think-twice-before-you-get-in-the-ocean-20240118-p5ey6a.html">last week</a>. </p>
<p>During 2022, floods repeatedly hit Australia’s eastern seaboard, causing an estimated A$3.5 billion in damage and tragic loss of life. In Sydney, it was the wettest year on record, with 2.2 metres of rain falling in the year, twice as much as usual. The heavy rainfall event in March–April dropped more than 600 millimetres of rain alone. </p>
<p>We don’t normally think about what happens to floodwater once it pulses out to sea. But we should. Floodwater is fresh. When it hits the sea in large volumes, it lowers the coastal ocean’s salinity. In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44398-2">new research</a>, we found floodwaters in 2022 led to 116 extreme low salinity days off Sydney – ten times more than the annual average. Extreme low salinity days are those that fall into the bottom 5% of salinity values ever measured at this location.</p>
<p>Normally, this effect clears within six days. But in 2022, extreme low salinity persisted for months in the coastal ocean. These plumes of freshwater extended as far as 70 kilometres offshore – five times further than original estimates. You could see them from space. For fish, this is confusing and dangerous. For kelp forests or sponge gardens, it can be lethal. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="satellite image of New South Wales coast with floodwaters going into sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570533/original/file-20240122-27-y6jvcg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=630&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Plumes of floodwater pushed far out to sea during the 2022 floods. This image shows the Hunter River on April 11 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Earth Observatory</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<h2>Unprecedented floodwaters, unprecedented impact</h2>
<p>Why do we care about very low salt levels in our coastal seas? </p>
<p>First, changing salinity levels let us track where floodwaters are headed. This is important, as floodwater often carries pollutants, sediment and other contaminants from the land into the ocean. </p>
<p>Second, when large volumes of freshwater arrive, it can actually change the density of the ocean. Saltwater is heavier (more dense) than freshwater, which is why some seabirds can find a layer of drinking water far out at sea when it rains heavily.</p>
<p>The ocean’s density depends on a combination of water temperature and salinity. Off Australia’s east coast, this density is usually influenced more by temperature. But during 2022, we saw something change. For the first time, we saw the density of seawater was becoming controlled by salinity. </p>
<p>Rather than the hottest temperatures always being seen at the surface, the heat could be anywhere in the water column, as the weight (or density) of the water was mostly being controlled by how much salt it contains, not how warm it was. </p>
<p>You might look at the sea and imagine it’s the same all the way down. But in fact, there are very real changes as you go down the water column, and there are distinct layers of water. </p>
<p>What this pulse of floodwater did was change the structure and layering of the water column in unusual ways. In this coastal ocean, there’s usually a light layer of warm water at the top and colder water below it. During 2022, the normal ocean water was replaced by two additional layers of fresher water from successive floods. </p>
<p>The 50-metre deep layer of fresh water didn’t simply mix with salt. Instead, the floodwaters remained off our coastline for months, trapped between the land and the warm, swiftly flowing waters of the East Australian Current. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">What's causing Sydney's monster flood crisis – and 3 ways to stop it from happening again</a>
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<h2>What does freshwater do to ocean ecosystems?</h2>
<p>Some coastal species such as bream tolerate freshwater well. But others don’t like it at all. We expect the sudden appearance of a very large freshwater layer would have forced fish to move. The sediment and pollutants in the floodwaters can disrupt normal food supplies for the ocean’s inhabitants. </p>
<p>We already know floodwater can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771422002189?via%3Dihub">destroy kelp forests</a> or cover verdant seagrass meadows with sediment, affecting <a href="https://www.des.qld.gov.au/our-department/news-media/mediareleases/2023/great-sandy-strait-seagrass-recovering-from-floods">turtles and dugong</a>. This, in turn, can temporarily slash the catch from some fisheries. </p>
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<h2>How did we track these changes?</h2>
<p>Off the eastern coast lies an advanced network of ocean sensors, deployed as part of Australia’s <a href="https://imos.org.au/">Integrated Marine Observing System</a>. For our work, we used data from oceanographic moorings – sensors anchored to the floor and extending through the water column – as well as underwater gliders, an underwater drone packed with instruments. </p>
<p>Moorings give us detailed, consistent information but only at a few locations. Gliders travel hundreds of kilometres up and down the length of the coastline in a zigzag pattern, from the coast offshore and back, and diving from the surface to the bottom around every 200 metres. </p>
<p>We used data from moorings, gliders, satellite data and estuary monitoring sensors run by the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment to build up a picture of where floodwaters had moved. </p>
<p>Even though we have a good system of sensors, our observing systems are geared towards monitoring temperature rather than salinity, meaning that this type of analysis can only be performed in certain parts of the coast that have the right instruments.</p>
<h2>Climate change is worsening floods. Could it weaken coastal ocean salinity?</h2>
<p>Globally, there’s little data on how salty our coastal seas are – and what floodwaters are doing, especially in areas where large rainfall is intermittent, such as eastern Australia. In 2022, severe floods also hit <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150470/flood-woes-continue-in-pakistan">Pakistan</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/durban-floods-119698">South Africa</a>. </p>
<p>These regions don’t yet have ocean observing systems capable of detecting and tracking the impact of floodwaters on the ocean. We don’t know what these unprecedented floods are doing to ocean ecosystems – but it’s important we find out. </p>
<p>Extreme rainfall events are expected to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2941">increase</a> globally due to climate change. We will need to determine what’s happening down there to plan our response and adapt as best we can. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-new-south-wales-reels-many-are-asking-why-its-flooding-in-places-where-its-never-flooded-before-190912">As New South Wales reels, many are asking why it's flooding in places where it's never flooded before</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Malan receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Moninya Roughan receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and Australia's National Collaborative Research Infrastructure (NCRIS) through support of the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS)</span></em></p>Floodwaters pulsing into the sea normally clear within six days. But the 2022 floods in eastern Australia were different.Neil Malan, Research associate, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW SydneyMoninya Roughan, Professor in Oceanography, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209402024-01-17T23:10:26Z2024-01-17T23:10:26ZWe can’t rely on the ‘dogs breakfast’ of disaster warnings to do the hard work of building community resilience<p>In the wake of cyclone Jasper, the new Australian Warning System has been roundly criticised. The system has been characterised as a “dog’s breakfast” and a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">cock-up of massive proportions</a>”.</p>
<p>For both emergency warnings, as well as for general awareness-raising around disaster preparedness, one-way communications are the default in risk management. </p>
<p>This reliance on communications is wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Whether as text messages and alerts when disasters strike, or as pamphlets and expert advice to encourage preparedness, we need to rethink how we use communications if we want more resilient communities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-disaster-strikes-emergency-responders-cant-respond-to-every-call-communities-must-be-helped-to-help-themselves-216644">When disaster strikes, emergency responders can't respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves</a>
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<h2>Warnings reflect unreasonable expectations</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">noted by Australians</a> in the aftermath of cyclone Jasper and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-maribyrnong-river-flood-warnings-that-receded-then-went-unheeded-20230928-p5e8ft.html">Maribyrnong floods</a>, the advice in warnings is often perceived to be incorrect, late, vague, and confusing.</p>
<p>Rather than an error that can be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/maribyrnong-flood-forecasting-and-early-warnings-must-be-improved-report-finds-20231006-p5ea7x.html">fixed with better content</a>, this reflects unreasonable expectations. </p>
<p>We expect a warning to be sufficiently abstract to be useful across large regions and for many people with varying levels of exposure and capacity. </p>
<p>At the same time, we also expect information specific enough for stressed and possibly traumatised individuals to implement in life-threatening situations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1740654928207687854"}"></div></p>
<p>In response to recommendations from numerous inquiries, authorities have applied standards and terminology to ensure consistency. While this sounds reasonable, it means that future warnings will continue to be ineffective.</p>
<p>It is worth repeating that risks are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/670_72351.pdf">dynamic</a> and personal. Communications useful to a young, well-connected longtime resident will be received very differently by a middle aged, isolated, “tree change” individual who has grown up in urban areas.</p>
<p>That a generic warning is unable to satisfy the needs of diverse individuals, experiencing varying levels of hazard, spread over large areas, and over time is unsurprising. What is surprising is the belief that “better warnings” will.</p>
<h2>Repeating the same mistakes</h2>
<p>Warnings and awareness raising for disaster preparedness reflect how the risk sector relies on communications to “engage” the public. This is based on a <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.570">discredited</a> approach that assumes communications can prompt targeted, lasting behaviour change.</p>
<p>The development of the <a href="https://www.australianwarningsystem.com.au">Australian Warning System</a> reflects this reliance. It is a position reaffirmed in the reports, commissions, and inquiries that have followed recent Australian disasters. </p>
<p>For example, in the 2020 <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-12/Royal%20Commission%20into%20National%20Natural%20Disaster%20Arrangements%20-%20Report%20%20%5Baccessible%5D.pdf">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a>, a whole chapter is dedicated to “Emergency Information and Warnings”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?</a>
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<p>Similarly, one focus of the ongoing <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/floodinquiry">inquiry</a> into the 2022 Victorian floods is on the “adequacy and effectiveness of early warning systems”. As it was for the 2011 <a href="http://floodsreview.archive.vic.gov.au/about-the-review/final-report.html">Comrie Review</a>, communications go unquestioned as the primary way to engage the public.</p>
<p>Frustration with repeated failure is becoming evident as successive commissions and inquiries hear the echoes of past efforts. The NSW 2022 <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">flood inquiry</a> stands out for its blunt recognition that Australians appear to be locked in a cycle. Disasters expose systemic failings that result in recommendations that go unimplemented. The report read:</p>
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<p>The Inquiry heard a deep sense of frustration from many flood-affected residents and community members over a lack of implementation and change over time, despite multiple previous reviews. Many were sceptical that this Inquiry would succeed in effecting significant change. Similar findings on implementation (or lack thereof) were made in the 2020 NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, which recommended that a central accountability mechanism be established to track implementation of the report.</p>
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<p>But what is missed in all of these reviews is a critical examination of our tendency to default to communications.</p>
<h2>The cost of being reactive</h2>
<p>Part of the problem with our reliance on communications is that, in the case of warnings, by the time they arrive we are reacting to an unfolding crisis, rather than preparing for one. This raises the costs significantly.</p>
<p>The resulting costs of disasters, currently $38 billion annually, are <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/perspectives/building-australias-natural-disaster-resilience.html">expected to rise</a> to between $73 and $94 billion annually by 2060, according to a Deloitte report. The report argued:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Australian economy is facing $1.2 trillion in cumulative costs of natural disasters over the next 40 years even under a low emissions scenario. This shows there is the potential for large economic gains from investments to improve Australia’s resilience to natural disasters. Targeted investments in both physical (such as infrastructure) and community (such as preparedness programs) resilience measures are predicted to significantly reduce the increasing costs of natural disasters</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Disaster costs are an unavoidably shared burden. Whether in the form of disaster response, relief, and recovery or in the form of investment in preparedness, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/64-million-package-ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-disaster-recovery">public funds</a> will inevitably be required in ever-larger amounts.</p>
<p>This situation results in <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-floods-were-fourth-most-costly-global-disaster-in-2022-20230110-p5cbhx">astronomical expenditures</a> during events and, later, “pinching pennies” for preparedness. This bias towards response and recovery over preparedness is known, made all the more frustrating because preparedness is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding/report">shown to be</a> cost-effective.</p>
<h2>So what should happen instead?</h2>
<p>Communications do not create community resilience, they activate it. </p>
<p>Our recent research shows that, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12861">rather than communications</a>, we need to engage meaningfully with communities. This means respecting their positions and values and appreciating that resilience is a long, slow, collaborative process that requires humility, active listening, experience, reflection, and support. </p>
<p>Our research shows that by conducting one-on-one engagement with members of the community, we can better understand their circumstances and support their agency. This has helped people as they learn about risk. They’ve shared lessons with their neighbours and helped family members to better protect themselves. This means we’re seeing knowledge and risk mitigation <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2345737623410014">circulate through communities</a>. </p>
<p>This way of partnering takes time and takes work, but it opens pathways for the learning and behaviour changes that help our communities expand their resilience. While it is expensive, the predicted costs of disasters more than justify such efforts.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/every-australian-will-be-touched-by-climate-change-so-lets-start-a-national-conversation-about-how-well-cope-196934">Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let's start a national conversation about how we'll cope</a>
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<p>As parts of Queensland and Victoria continue to be battered by disasters, it is time to admit that communications alone do not build resilience. They play an important role, but they are only one element of what needs to be a long-term partnership.</p>
<p>Rather than scooping the “dog’s breakfast” back into the bowl, we need to consider the underlying causes of the mess. With resilience, Australians will be ready and able to share in the growing burden of risk management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Robert Cook receives funding from Melbourne Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kamstra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether it’s pamphlets aimed at prevention or text alerts, mass communication is often relied on during disasters. This flawed approach can be improved by engaging meaningfully with communities.Brian Robert Cook, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196642024-01-17T15:41:29Z2024-01-17T15:41:29ZMozambique’s cyclone flooding was devastating to animals – we studied how body size affected survival<p>Anyone who watches the news will have seen the devastation that tropical cyclones can cause when they reach land, with very strong winds, high rainfall and flooding. A cyclone like this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-cyclone-idai-the-storm-that-knew-no-boundaries-113931">Idai</a>, moved over Gorongosa National Park in central Mozambique in March 2019. At that time, it was the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00981-6">deadliest storm in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Rainfall at Gorongosa averages about <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06722-0#Sec2">850mm per year</a>. When Idai passed over, more than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06722-0#Sec2">200mm of rain fell</a> in less than 24 hours. Over the following week, the depth of flood waters increased from 2 metres to 5.9 metres and the flood zone increased from 24.1km² to 117.7km². Only by late May did conditions return to normal.</p>
<p>Gorongosa protects 3,674km² of savanna ecosystem. Much of the park’s wildlife was decimated by the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/mozambique">Mozambican Civil War</a> (1977-1992). Since then, scientists have <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0212864">studied</a> the recovery of wildlife populations and changes in the park ecosystem.</p>
<p>When it comes to natural hazards, scientists think that traits such as body size, dispersal ability and habitat preference may be important in determining how vulnerable animals are. But it’s seldom possible to test these ideas. The <a href="https://gorongosa.org/princeton-at-gorongosa/">research</a> that was taking place in <a href="https://gorongosa.org/">Gorongosa National Park</a> at the time of Cyclone Idai provided the perfect opportunity to investigate this.</p>
<p>We were part of an international research team which drew on existing data about wildlife in Gorongosa and compared it with data after the cyclone. We <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06722-0#Sec1">found</a> that overall, the effect of Idai was to push animals out of lower-lying, inundated areas and crowd them into higher regions. The shift in distribution, combined with the reduction in flood zone plant productivity, affected what herbivores had available for food. Larger herbivores were better able to move in response to the flooding and to cope with food shortage. Large carnivores had a more easily accessible food supply.</p>
<p>Our results identify general traits that govern animal responses to severe weather, which may help to inform wildlife conservation in a volatile climate.</p>
<p>This effect of animal size on responses to catastrophic storms is similar to that found for island systems affected by <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.281.5377.695">hurricanes in the Bahamas</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-indian-ocean-is-spawning-strong-and-deadly-tropical-cyclones-116559">Why the Indian Ocean is spawning strong and deadly tropical cyclones</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Measuring the impact of Idai on animals</h2>
<p>We integrated data from multiple research projects for which animal GPS locations were available to capture the responses of animals to the flooding.</p>
<p>The individual movement of 48 GPS-collared animals from seven species was measured. Changes in distribution of animals were measured over three years with 30 camera traps covering an area of 300km². Satellite imagery allowed us to assess changes in forage availability, and dung samples provided a picture of dietary changes. The body condition of animals captured for GPS collaring was assessed. We estimated changes in abundance from aerial survey counts covering years 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.</p>
<h2>Herbivore responses</h2>
<p>Among the species monitored at the time of the cyclone were small antelopes such as the oribi (17kg) and bushbuck (49kg), and large animals like buffaloes (550kg) and elephants (4,000kg).</p>
<p>The bushbuck that survived did so by perching on patches of high ground, like the tops of termite mounds within the flood zone. Locations from the GPS collars showed that they camped out on these temporary little islands or moved quickly between them, hopping from one island to the next.</p>
<p>Larger antelopes like nyala, kudu and sable were able to move long distances towards higher ground. </p>
<p>In addition to the sheer volume of water entering the Gorongosa system, the timing of the flood was also a disturbance. Because the cyclone occurred in March, foraging areas normally open to grazing were covered with water and unproductive.</p>
<p>Herbivore diet in the months following the cyclone shifted to taller, more woody plants, which are harder to digest and have less protein. Plant species eaten showed less overlap between herbivores than in normal years, a strategy that likely reduced competition. Compared to larger herbivores, smaller herbivores experienced a larger change in diet, a greater expansion in the number of plant species eaten to cope with the loss of preferred plants, and a larger decrease in diet quality.</p>
<p>Because food following Idai was scarce, and competition among crowded herbivores was stronger, there was a reduction in body condition for smaller species like bushbuck and nyala. For the larger, more wide-ranging kudu, body condition showed little change.</p>
<p>Crowding and food quality and availability had an impact on numbers of herbivores in the park.</p>
<p>Regular aerial surveys have shown consistent growth in herbivore numbers since the end of the civil war. The survey following Idai, however, showed the first population decreases for many species in the last 30 years. The strongest decreases (47%-53%) were for the small antelopes, oribi and bushbuck. Numbers of larger herbivores (wildebeest, buffalo and elephant) also decreased, but not as severely (27%).</p>
<h2>Carnivore responses</h2>
<p>The effects of Idai on lions and wild dogs were not nearly as strong as for the herbivores. GPS-collared animals moved away from the expanding flood zone. Diets of lions did not change much, but wild dogs began to eat more waterbuck, especially after the cyclone pushed many waterbuck into areas used by wild dogs.</p>
<p>Lion and wild dog populations both increased in numbers following the cyclone. Prey animals consisting of weaker and more food-stressed herbivores became easier to catch and a more abundant food supply for the large carnivores.</p>
<h2>Size matters</h2>
<p>Among the lessons learned from the disturbance caused by Cyclone Idai are that larger species tend to be more resilient to disturbances through their ability to move longer distances and their greater stores of body resources to survive when forage is unavailable. Smaller species were more strongly affected, but they also have the potential to recover more quickly.</p>
<p>Knowledge of how different wildlife species respond to and recover from climatic disturbances will be increasingly important for the conservation of protected areas like Gorongosa National Park. For instance, knowing the different roles species play in a natural system can help wildlife managers to focus conservation efforts on vulnerable species and habitats according to their likely contributions to system recovery following a disturbance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219664/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cyclone Idai in Mozambique was an opportunity to test ideas about traits that help animals survive natural hazards.Jason P. Marshal, Associate Professor of Ecology, University of the WitwatersrandFrancesca Parrini, Associate Professor in Animal Ecology, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207882024-01-10T16:37:57Z2024-01-10T16:37:57ZExtreme UK flood levels are happening much more often than they used to, analysis shows<p>Heavy rain across southern Britain meant that most rivers in England swelled at the beginning of 2024, prompting widespread flooding. </p>
<p>The River Trent was among the most severely affected. Water levels at the Drakelow gauging station in the west Midlands reached <a href="https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/station/2108">3.88 metres</a> on January 4 – well above the previous record set less than four years earlier in February 2020.</p>
<p>Are floods growing larger and happening more often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824">in the UK</a>? There are two ways to answer this question. One is to consult computer models which project Earth’s climate in the future, and the other is to search the historical record. </p>
<p>Climate projections are important but highly uncertain as they indicate a wide range of potential futures <a href="https://eip.ceh.ac.uk/hydrology/cc-impacts/">for any given river</a>. Projections also only tell part of the story as they do not reflect the patterns of water use, changes to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acbecc/meta">groundwater levels</a> or to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128417">urban environment</a> that can decide flooding on a particular river. </p>
<p>That’s why we give equal importance to historical data, although we cannot project past changes directly into the future. <a href="https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/data/station/peakflow/28019">Historical archives</a> of river monitoring data can help us understand how the largest floods are changing on the River Trent. </p>
<p>For instance, how is the 50-year water level (the highest point a river would be expected to reach in 50 years on average) changing? On the River Trent at Drakelow, the 50-year water level has risen from about 3.46 metres in 1959 to 3.83 metres in 2024. This means the largest floods are indeed getting bigger.</p>
<h2>How the January 2024 floods compare</h2>
<p>The flood water level on the Trent at the start of January 2024 was actually higher than what scientists would consider a once-in-50-year event in today’s warmer climate.</p>
<p>Another way to understand how much floods have changed is to consider how often they happen today compared with the past. If we look at the 50-year level from 1959 (about 3.46 metres), how often would such a flood occur in today’s climate?</p>
<p>On the Trent, a 3.46-metre flood level would now be expected to occur every 9.38 years, on average, in 2024. This makes sense, considering there have already been six events in which the river level exceeded 3.5 metres since the 1980s. The historical data shows that extreme water levels are being reached more frequently on the Trent.</p>
<p>Our analysis of the Trent aligns with results from a previous study which looked at rivers across <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824">the rest of the UK</a>. In many places, 50-year floods are now happening less than every ten years, on average. </p>
<p>This is partly due to climate change and also partly due to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-are-uk-floods-becoming-worse-due-to-climate-change/">natural variations in the climate</a> which see rivers cycle through spells of more and less flooding. The UK went through a “flood-poor” period in the 1960s, 70s and 80s, and has been going through a “flood-rich” period since then. </p>
<h2>Prepare for worse</h2>
<p>It is worth noting that there are caveats to this type of <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021">analysis</a> which tries to assess how extreme events are changing over time. Caution must be exercised when looking at long records of river levels given <a href="https://iwaponline.com/hr/article/43/3/203/31252/The-Thames-flood-series-a-lack-of-trend-in-flood">changes in river management practices</a> and measurement techniques over time. </p>
<p>It should also be noted that these results use a different methodology to the <a href="https://www.ceh.ac.uk/our-science/projects/flood-estimation-handbook">industry standard</a> for flood estimation. </p>
<p>But what matters is not the precise changes in the frequency of major floods (from 50 years down to nine or even two-and-a-half years, according to some statistical methods). It is understanding that the frequency of large floods is changing fast.</p>
<p>For many UK rivers with more extensive historical archives of river level measurements, floods appear to be occurring far more frequently than before. In a smaller number of places, they are occurring less frequently.</p>
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<p>We need to better understand how flood risk will evolve in response to further human-induced warming. The UK’s efforts to predict and prepare for future floods are supported by the Environment Agency’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-research-reports/flood-hydrology-roadmap">flood hydrology roadmap</a>, which is mobilising a wide community of researchers and practitioners.</p>
<p>Overall, the UK must prepare to live with bigger floods and be able to predict <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100650">flood-rich periods</a> several years ahead. This starts with an understanding of how the severity and frequency of such events is changing. </p>
<p>To support this effort, we are preparing a range of tools to guide flood planners, including an interactive map allowing users to explore how flood return periods are changing across the UK. Being better prepared for extreme events in a warming climate starts with understanding what it will mean for your local area.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Slater is Professor of Hydroclimatology at Oxford University and a Future Leaders Fellow funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). Slater leads the Hydroclimate Extremes research group which studies how floods and other extreme events are changing over time. She is also a member of the UK Flood Hydrology Scientific and Technical Advisory Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Hannaford is a Principal Hydrologist and Group Leader at the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. He is also a visiting Associate Professor at the Irish Climate And Research Units (ICARUS) at Maynooth University, Ireland. Hannaford is the scientific lead for the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology’s water monitoring work in the programme UK-SCAPE. He is also the scientific lead for the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and the UK Hydrological Outlook.</span></em></p>On one stretch of Nottingham’s River Trent, floods that arrived every 50 years now return in ten.Louise Slater, Professor of Hydroclimatology, University of OxfordJamie Hannaford, Principal Hydrologist, UK Centre for Ecology & HydrologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206342024-01-09T17:03:11Z2024-01-09T17:03:11Z2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568310/original/file-20240108-17-d7axzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C875%2C1145%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood water filled streets in downtown Montpelier, Vt., on July 11, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-the-flooded-waters-of-main-street-on-news-photo/1524301769?adppopup=true">Kylie Cooper/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National weather analysts released their 2023 <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/1980-2023">billion-dollar disasters</a> list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?">off to a ferocious start</a>. A <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/midwest-to-see-three-rounds-of-snow">blizzard was sweeping across</a> across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/eastern-us-snow-storm-01-09-24/index.html">extreme downpours</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">28 disasters</a> that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each. </p>
<p>While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">six more than any other year</a>, accounting for inflation. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">NOAA</a></span>
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<p>The year’s most expensive disaster started with an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events">US$14.5 billion in damage</a>, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/faq">conservative estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">devastating wildfires</a> that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August. </p>
<p>Other billion-dollar disasters included <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/HurricaneIdalia2023">Hurricane Idalia</a>, which hit Florida in August; floods in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">Northeast</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a>; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a bicycle walks through a scene of destruction after the fire in Lahaina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1920%2C1258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-Global-PhotoGallery/15a6864806e24d0cbb8b1037cfcf9931/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a>. The year 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">hottest on record globally</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202312">fifth warmest in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a>, <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of tropical storms.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p>
<p><em>This article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">originally published Dec. 19, 2023</a>, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how rising temperatures are helping to fuel extreme storms, floods, droughts and devastating wildfires.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166442023-12-21T04:39:12Z2023-12-21T04:39:12ZWhen disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves<p>As record-breaking floods in North Queensland ease and water levels recede, the focus now turns to the mop-up and recovery. Residents have been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgkfqttxNqk">supporting</a> each other through the flood crisis, such as processing donated goods, conducting welfare checks on neighbours and helping each other clean up homes.</p>
<p>Such community resilience in disasters is vital. <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">Successive</a> <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/natural-disasters">inquiries</a> have shown we can’t rely solely on emergency services in large disasters. Crews can’t get to every community straight away, or provide support to every household that needs assistance.</p>
<p>Our research shows how communities can be supported to respond in a crisis – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.</p>
<p>As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are the new norm. Local community building and preparedness is now more important than ever.</p>
<h2>Building disaster resilience</h2>
<p>Volunteer numbers are <a href="https://www.volunteeringaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/VRP_The-Decline-of-Formal-Volunteering-in-Australia-2001%E2%80%932020-Insights-from-the-HILDA-Survey.pdf">declining nationally</a>. However, when disaster strikes, people show a willingness to step forward and help their communities.</p>
<p>We have researched <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/08/02/communities-self-organising-for-climate-disasters.html">community-led responses</a> to disasters in three locations in New South Wales – the Northern Rivers, Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions. We examined how community networks organised themselves during the response and recovery phases of the Black Summer bushfires (2019-20) and major floods (2020-22). </p>
<p>We found people leapt into action and helped one another: relaying early warning messages, distributing food when roads were cut and then cleaning up afterwards. They also provided emotional support when the going got tough. This included listening to and supporting flood-affected people who wanted to tell their story and start processing what had happened. Community members also supported elderly people when their at-home support services were cut off for extended periods. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/sydney-environment-institute/news/2023/05/01/building-resilience-to-the-mental-health-impacts-of-climate-chan.html">separate research</a> in rural communities affected by drought, fire and flood, we found community-led collective action and planning can foster feelings of belonging and social connection. It can also help communities prepare for the broader consequences of climate change. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039">North Queensland's record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what's to come under climate change</a>
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<h2>Community resilience in action</h2>
<p>Many community-led resilience initiatives have emerged in the Northern Rivers region in the wake of successive disasters. They include <a href="https://www.floodhelpnr.com.au/">Resilient Lismore</a>, <a href="https://resilientuki.org/">Resilient Uki</a>, <a href="https://www.wardellcore.community/">Wardell CORE</a>, <a href="https://togetherpottsville.org/">Together Pottsville</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/431100262102216">South Golden Beach Community Resilience Team</a>, and <a href="https://www.madr.org.au/#:%7E:text=Main%20Arm%20Disaster%20Recovery%20Inc.%20is%20a%20community%2Drun%20organisation,to%20keep%20the%20community%20safe.">Main Arm Disaster Recovery</a>. </p>
<p>Examples of the activities flowing from these initiatives include:</p>
<ul>
<li>homegrown produce swaps</li>
<li>community gatherings (such as festivals, barbeques and bushfire awareness talks)</li>
<li>creating or joining formal local community groups</li>
<li>creating community resilience plans</li>
<li>bush regeneration projects</li>
<li>improving emergency communications </li>
<li>creating animal welfare plans for disasters. </li>
</ul>
<p>One <a href="https://www.ccrnetwork.org/">community program in Northern NSW</a> was run by community organisation <a href="https://www.planc.org.au">Plan C</a>. The lead author of this article, Rebecca McNaught, is a board member and former consultant to the organisation and co-author Jean Renouf is the founder and chief executive. The program trained and supported more than 270 Northern Rivers residents across six local government areas. Most (80%) of these people were affected by floods in 2022 through loss of property or incomes, and 30% were directly threatened by bushfires in 2019-20.</p>
<p>The program covered the technical aspects of preparing for disasters, such as learning about the roles of fire, police and state emergency services. It also trained participants in disaster risks associated with bushfire, flood, tsunami and landslips.</p>
<p>Disasters can <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/13/6285">take a toll on mental health</a>. Training people in how to look after themselves and each other in challenging times is important. The program teaches participants about the benefit of sharing stories about individual experiences, and guides participants in how to provide emotional support to someone who has experienced trauma. The program also covers concepts such as active listening, compassionate communication skills and self-care for both the helper and the person receiving support.</p>
<p>Participants are also mentored and connected to a network of community carers and responders who support each other and their communities to both recover from recent floods and fires and build resilience to future disasters.</p>
<p>The connection of community leaders across the Northern Rivers is essential. Through Whatsapp groups, leaders can express solidarity, share skills and resources, and support each other to work through the governance issues involving community organisations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-can-floods-like-those-in-the-northern-rivers-come-in-clusters-180250">Why can floods like those in the Northern Rivers come in clusters?</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>The benefits are clear</h2>
<p>Communities are important actors in preparing for and recovering from disaster, and should be supported to do this job well. And more robust research into community resilience programs is needed, to better understand what is working, who benefits and why.</p>
<p>Support for this work must come now, before the next disaster, so communities can pull together to withstand the challenges ahead. </p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Emma Pittaway and Dr Johanna Nalau for their contributions to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government's Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Howard has received funding from Resilience NSW and the new NSW Reconstruction Authority, Infrastructure NSW.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean S. Renouf is a lecturer at Southern Cross University and the CEO of the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C, which builds community resilience in the Northern Rivers of NSW. Plan C receives funding from Commonwealth and NSW government grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment and the NSW Reconstruction Authority. </span></em></p>The North Queensland floods remind us of the need to build community resilience to disasters – during the event, in the immediate aftermath and beyond.Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of SydneyAmanda Howard, Associate Professor, University of SydneyJean S. Renouf, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Southern Cross UniversityJo Longman, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200392023-12-18T02:57:15Z2023-12-18T02:57:15ZNorth Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change<p>Unprecedented rain brought by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-13/qld-tropical-cyclone-jasper-weather-pattern-warning-bom/103220130">Tropical Cyclone Jasper</a> has triggered widespread flooding in far north Queensland, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Cairns airport is <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/weather/cairns-down-to-30-hours-of-water-supply-tinaroo-dam-to-spill/news-story/0a25a5096a1219ae031f02fd6c0ea145">closed</a>, roads are extensively damaged and residents in the city’s northern beaches are cut off by floodwaters.</p>
<p>Some rain gauges in the Barron and Daintree River catchments recorded <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/12/18/cairns-flooding">more than 2m of rain</a> over recent days, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-18/qld-record-flooding-far-north-monday/103239260">more rain is expected</a>. Water levels in the lower Barron River have <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/far-north-queensland-hit-by-heavy-rain-flash-flooding/news-story/9731b48d321bb7a60ecaf8e26c7d7dd4">smashed the previous record</a> set by devastating floods in <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/6858263">March 1977</a>. On Monday morning, the Daintree River was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/27/queensland-flooding-emergency-alert-as-daintree-river-beats-118-year-record">more than 2m</a> higher than the previous 118-year-old flood level, recorded in 2019.</p>
<p>The full impacts of the flood are not yet clear. But there’s likely to be significant damage to properties and public infrastructure, and negative effects for industries such as tourism and agriculture. Recovery is likely to take many months.</p>
<p>So let’s take a closer look at what caused this emergency – and what to expect as climate change worsens.</p>
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<h2>A ‘sweet spot’ for torrential rain</h2>
<p>Tropical Cyclone Jasper <a href="https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/99359">crossed the coas</a>t north of Cairns on Wednesday last week, tracking over the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal. Damage from wind and storm surge was minimal, but Jasper still produced more than 800mm of rain across the Daintree and Mossman River catchments.</p>
<p>Late Wednesday, the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low. It crossed southern Cape York Peninsula and headed towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. By Friday, local tourism agencies and operators <a href="https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/touring-resumes-in-tropical-north-queensland/news-story/77c2b9db23c9bac95599911f363b346e?fbclid=IwAR1kxHaWGj7xfSwmjcoe_ULs0l6Ulc-vhXLqgZYSIQUTQAX5Y156R2FAYyo">announced</a> they were back in business, inviting visitors back to the region.</p>
<p>However, by Saturday morning, a significant rainfall and flood emergency was unfolding across a 360 kilometre swathe from Cooktown to Ingham. So what happened? </p>
<p>The ex-cyclone stalled just inland from the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, creating a sweet spot for torrential rain known as a “stationary convergence zone”. Incredibly moist tropical winds collided over a narrow zone between Port Douglas and Innisfail. This effect converged with northerly winds from the Gulf of Carpentaria and southeast trade winds from the Coral Sea. Local mountain ranges created extra uplift. All this led to non-stop torrential rain for 48 hours.</p>
<p>As a result, an emergency situation rapidly grew across Cairns and the Barron River delta to its immediate north. </p>
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<h2>Townsville floods: similar but different</h2>
<p>This extreme flood event bears some similarity to that which caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">significant damage to Townsville</a> in February 2019. Both were associated with a stationary convergence zone caused by a stalled tropical low located to their northwest. In the case of Townsville, the tropical low did not budge for more than ten days. In that time, Townsville received the equivalent of a year’s average rainfall.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the two events are very different. </p>
<p>Firstly, the Townsville floods occurred during a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml">neutral year</a> – that is, in the absence of the climate drivers La Niña and El Niño. But the current flood event has occurred during an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">El Niño</a>, when tropical cyclones are much less likely to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/#:%7E:text=Tropical%20cyclones%20in%20the%20Australian,fewer%20during%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20years.">occur in the Australian region</a>, especially in early December.</p>
<p>Secondly, the deep tropical low that caused the 2019 Townsville floods was embedded in an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=monsoon#:%7E:text=Low%20pressure%20is%20created%2C%20which,or%20an%20%22inactive%22%20phase">active monsoon trough</a>, which sucked in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-can-make-catastrophic-weather-systems-linger-for-longer-111832">very moist equatorial air from Indonesia</a>. But unusually, Cyclone Jasper did not form in such conditions. The monsoon trough is still to appear and form over northern Australia. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<h2>What’s climate change got to do with it?</h2>
<p>As 2023 closes as the <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts">warmest year on record</a>, there is growing global concern about the rise of <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-qa/impacts">extreme weather events</a> such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.</p>
<p>The atmosphere and oceans are warming due to increasing emissions of <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/what-is-climate-change/#:%7E:text=Global%20warming%20is%20the%20long,gas%20levels%20in%20Earth%27s%20atmosphere.">greenhouse gases</a>, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. This has led to a greater risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, such as the events we’re seeing now in far north Queensland. </p>
<p>For every 1°C rise in average global temperature, the atmosphere can hold <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">an extra 7% water vapour</a>. When the right atmospheric “triggers” are in place, this extra water vapour is released as intense rainfall.</p>
<p>It’s too soon to attribute the current extreme rain and flooding to climate change. But as the world continues to warm, such events will become more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>Already, extreme flood events globally are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">more regular</a> and their magnitude is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214">breaking</a> many long-term rainfall and river flood records. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">As extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look a global warming's role</a>
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<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, local and state authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the “new normal” of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?</p>
<p>Since the big <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/brochures/barron/barron.shtml">Barron River flood in March 1977</a>, considerable residential and commercial development has been permitted across the river’s floodplain. In many cases, these earlier developments were approved without full consideration of <a href="https://www.cairns.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/489618/Planning-Scheme-Policy-Natural-hazards-Version-2.0.pdf">future floods</a>. Many were also approved before local government planning started taking sea level rise into consideration.</p>
<p>The wider Cairns community will recover from this extreme event and will hopefully take on board any problems identified in the emergency responses. In future, emergency planning must take the effects of climate change more seriously. This includes increases in sea level, and more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>As of this month, a climate emergency had been declared in <a href="https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/">2,351 jurisdictions and local government areas</a> around the world. As a result, many jurisdictions have developed response plans. In Australia, local governments should recognise climate change threats and risks by formally declaring a climate emergency.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian government.</span></em></p>Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the ‘new normal’ of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189132023-12-04T04:07:28Z2023-12-04T04:07:28ZCOP28: health is finally on the agenda – but there’s more to do as we face continued climate extremes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563181/original/file-20231204-15-fxgmtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2423%2C1641&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pakistan experienced severe floods in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/karachi-pakistan-aug-22-residents-facing-1800744619">Asianet-Pakistan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As global leaders gather in Dubai for COP28, health has finally landed firmly on the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144277">climate change agenda</a>, with the first “<a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2023/12/03/default-calendar/cop28-health-day">health day</a>” at the annual UN climate summit taking place yesterday (December 3).</p>
<p>Including health in discussions on climate change has never been more important. Extreme weather <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/fulltext">threatens human health</a> in a variety of ways, and this intersection is only getting worse as extreme weather events become more likely with climate change.</p>
<p>Two of us (Kathryn and Arthur) attended the health day. It represents a pivotal moment for climate and health on the global stage – but there’s still much work to do.</p>
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<h2>How climate change affects our health</h2>
<p>The Lancet recently <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/fulltext">published its latest report</a> on the health effects of climate change, and the news isn’t good. </p>
<p>The report reaffirms that substantial deaths and injuries due to climate change are already happening around the world. For example, heat-related deaths in people aged over 65 increased by 85% in 2013-2022 compared to 1991-2000. </p>
<p>The effects of climate change on health are wide-ranging. As well as harm from extreme heat, disasters such as droughts, floods and bushfires can lead to the <a href="https://www.caha.org.au/mr_031223?utm_campaign=231203_mr_nhcs_launch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=caha">spread of infectious diseases</a>, exposure to bushfire smoke, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-year-after-pakistans-floods-44-of-children-have-stunted-growth-what-can-be-done-about-it-218123">food insecurity</a> and more. </p>
<p>Events like these are also increasing <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09540261.2022.2128725">mental health problems</a> such as anxiety, depression and post traumatic stress disorder.</p>
<p>Minority and at-risk groups experience <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-7/">the worst health impacts</a>, which <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2022/217/9/climate-change-society-and-health-inequities">widen existing social and health inequities</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<h2>A pivotal moment</h2>
<p>This year has seen promising progress towards addressing the impact of climate change on health. In May, the World Health Assembly for the first time had a <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/24-05-2023-seventy-sixth-world-health-assembly---daily-update--24-may-2023">strong focus on health and climate change</a>, including a roundtable on the role of the health community in climate action and the need for dedicated financing mechanisms. </p>
<p>In August, the G20 health ministers <a href="https://noharm.medium.com/g20-prioritizes-climate-and-health-action-41bf2458ea60">made climate and health a priority issue</a> and agreed to the first ever high-level principles for health and climate action. These included building sustainable and low-carbon health systems that deliver high-quality health care, and decarbonising health-care supply chains.</p>
<p>Now, this inaugural health day at COP has sought to raise the profile of the health impacts of climate change, and to <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/guiding-principles">mobilise finances for effective action</a> so countries can prepare and respond. </p>
<p>The day was focused around key topics including the avenues through which climate affects health, the health benefits of emissions reductions, as well as the needs, barriers and best practices for strengthening climate-resilient health systems.</p>
<p>A ministerial roundtable closed out the day, with many of the 50 health ministers who attended allocated two minutes to talk about why and how they are taking action on health and climate change. </p>
<p>For example, the representative for Vanuatu noted the country faces an uncertain future due to climate change, and highlighted their hope this health day would allow for continued support to countries at highest risk.</p>
<p>Japan noted the importance of strengthening universal health coverage as a key way to respond to the health impacts of climate change.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-the-climate-summits-first-health-day-points-to-what-needs-to-change-in-nz-218809">COP28: the climate summit’s first Health Day points to what needs to change in NZ</a>
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<h2>A declaration</h2>
<p>Notably, this COP has seen more than 120 countries, including Australia, sign the <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/news/2023/12/Health-Declaration-delivering-breakthrough-moment-for-health-in-climate-talks">COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health</a>. The declaration focuses on gathering support, galvanising action and mobilising finances to improve the resilience of health systems.</p>
<p>Along with this, the United Arab Emirates announced an “aggregated” funding commitment of <a href="https://healthpolicy-watch.news/cop28-health-and-climate-declaration/">US$1 billion</a> for strengthened implementation of health-focused climate activities. This is facilitated by agencies including the Green Climate Fund, the Asian Development Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation.</p>
<p>However, scarce detail is available on whether this money will be additional to current commitments, will be considered a loan or a grant, or will be shifted from other health priorities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-why-climate-change-may-see-more-of-us-turn-to-alcohol-and-other-drugs-217894">5 reasons why climate change may see more of us turn to alcohol and other drugs</a>
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<p>In terms of Australian action, COP28 hosted the launch of the first <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/national-health-and-climate-strategy">National Health and Climate Strategy</a>, which sets out a plan to decarbonise the country’s health system, as well as build resilience in the health system and communities to protect against the effects of climate change on health.</p>
<p>Australia has also finally signed up to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/alliance-for-transformative-action-on-climate-and-health">Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health</a>, which began at COP26.</p>
<h2>Protecting our planet, people and future</h2>
<p>As WHO Director General <a href="https://healthpolicy-watch.news/first-ever-cop28-health-day-unfolds-amidst-uproar-over-cop-presidents-fossil-fuel-remarks/">Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus</a> said yesterday, after 27 COPs without a serious discussion of health, the focus on health at COP28 is well overdue. </p>
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<p>Undoubtedly, health stands as the most compelling reason for taking climate action […] For too long, health has been a footnote in climate discussions.</p>
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<p>But while the health day and other recent developments are encouraging, there’s much more to be done to meaningfully protect the health of communities around the world.</p>
<p>Notably, the rapid phasing out of <a href="https://nceph.anu.edu.au/phxchange/communicating-science/our-health-mercy-fossil-fuels-mja-lancet-countdown-2022-reports">fossil fuels</a> is vital if climate-related health impacts are to ease. And the global declaration mentioned above doesn’t set out any plan for this or address the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out. </p>
<p>The health sector can and must <a href="https://theconversation.com/health-care-is-responsible-for-7-of-our-carbon-emissions-and-there-are-safe-and-easy-ways-this-can-be-reduced-184170">contribute to this endeavour</a> given it’s responsible for 4.4% of global carbon emissions. </p>
<p>We know the health benefits of climate action <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-12-2018-health-benefits-far-outweigh-the-costs-of-meeting-climate-change-goals">far outweigh the costs</a>. Without ambitious cross-sectoral action that considers health outcomes, human health and wellbeing will continue to suffer. This is the first health day at COP, but it must not be the last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Bowen has received funding for climate and health research, policy advice and technical assistance from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, World Health Organization, Asian Development Bank, United Nations Development Program, United Nations Environment Program, USAID, German Development Ministry, European Union, Future Earth, City of Melbourne, Victorian Department of Health. She is affiliated with the Australian Climate and Health Alliance as a member of the Advisory Board and sits on the Science Committee of the World Adaptation Science Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annabelle Workman received a Strategic Australian Postgraduate Award scholarship from the Australian Government to complete her PhD. She is affiliated with the Climate and Health Alliance.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arthur Wyns is a climate change advisor to the World Health Organization, and is a climate and health advisor to COP28.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Patrick has previously received funding from state government and not-for-profit organisations. She is a former Board member and Past President of the Australian Climate and Health Alliance.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Robinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The effects of climate change on health are getting more political traction. But there’s still more to do, particularly as the health harms of climate change are only getting more serious.Kathryn Bowen, Professor - Environment, Climate and Global Health at Melbourne Climate Futures and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneAnnabelle Workman, Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneArthur Wyns, Honorary fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneRebecca Patrick, Academic Convener, Climate CATCH Lab, The University of Melbourne, Deakin UniversitySophie Robinson, Research Assistant and PhD student. Member of Melbourne Climate Futures Academy., The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175982023-11-21T15:13:18Z2023-11-21T15:13:18ZGhana: Akosombo Dam disaster reveals a history of negligence that continues to this day<p>Recent <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/akosombo-dam-spillage-evidence-climate-pressures-ghana-thecophq-9ceye/">heavy downpours </a>in the Lower Volta area of Ghana led to the <a href="https://www.myjoyonline.com/akosombo-dam-spillage-we-didnt-sleep-on-duty-vra-absolves-itself-of-blame/">worst flooding</a> in the region’s history. The flooding was caused by a <a href="https://www.vra.com/media/2023/Controlled-Spillage-from-the-Akosombo-Dam-and-Kpong-Dam.php">spillage</a> (a deliberate release of water) from the Akosombo Dam, the country’s biggest hydroelectric dam. Over <a href="https://www.ghanaiantimes.com.gh/akosombo-spillage-26000-residents-displaced-by-floods-8000-victims-rescued-inter-ministerial-cttee-tours-affected-areas/">26,000 people</a> were displaced. No deaths have been officially announced. The last recorded spillage was in 2010.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vra.com/about_us/profile.php">Volta River Authority</a>, the state agency that manages the Akosombo Dam, opened the flood gates to release pressure on the dam after unusually high rainfall. By September, Volta Lake, the vast, 400km-long reservoir behind Akosombo Dam, had been filled to capacity. A month after the spillage started, communities along the Volta River were severely affected by the excess water. </p>
<p>Local residents fled to safety, leaving behind most of their belongings. Farms were submerged and crops destroyed. The inventory of stores and businesses in low-lying areas suffered extensive damage. </p>
<p>The director of the disaster management organisation was <a href="https://gna.org.gh/2023/10/flood-in-most-districts-not-due-to-vra-spillage-nadmo/">quoted</a> as saying that the floods were caused by heavy rains in the Volta catchment basin. Climate change and global warming, he explained, were responsible for all the water coming down the Volta. </p>
<p>Other factors are relevant too to understand this crisis. Based on my <a href="https://iupress.org/9780253059956/a-dam-for-africa/">knowledge of the area</a> as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=FY41aRUAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">historian</a> who has studied the Akosombo Dam and its impact on the lives of the people in the Lower Volta, I would attribute the extent of the calamity to two additional factors. </p>
<p>One is the ecological and economic changes brought by the construction of the Akosombo Dam. The areas affected by the flooding have been populated by farmers who settled there after they could no longer farm and fish elsewhere in the Lower Volta once the dam was built. The second is the failings of the Volta River Authority which manages the dam.</p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The Lower Volta lies below the country’s two large hydroelectric dams, Akosombo, <a href="https://newafricanmagazine.com/16321/">completed</a> in 1965, and <a href="https://dbpedia.org/page/Kpong_Dam">Kpong</a>, completed in 1982.</p>
<p>The Volta River Project was Ghana’s largest development project. It included Akosombo Dam and an aluminum smelter as the dam’s main beneficiary. Even in the 1950s the planners of the project recognised that damming the Volta would have severe economic effects on the Lower Volta. There was also recognition that the project would lead to major ecological changes.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Volta_River_Project_Engineering_repo.html?id=cJSGAAAAIAAJ">1956 report</a>, the preparatory commission, which closely studied the Volta River Project, detailed the changes that were to come. </p>
<p>The first was that the construction of the dam would put an end to the ecological cycle that had nourished the Lower Volta for centuries. The area was accustomed to substantial annual floods that filled hundreds of small creeks, fertilised agricultural lands and created large fisheries. The cycle of annual floods enabled a prosperous agricultural society with farming, fishing and clam picking (which was largely done by women.)</p>
<p>During the dry season, men migrated upstream to fish, hunt, farm and build boats. </p>
<p>Once Akosombo was built, the annual floods stopped. The dam created a regulated river downstream.</p>
<p>The preparatory commission warned about the radical changes the dam would bring downstream. But policymakers and Ghana’s governments ignored them. </p>
<p>The impact on communities of the Lower Volta has been examined by researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dzodzi-tsikata-365479">Dzodzi Tsikata</a> in her study <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Living-Shadow-Large-Dams-Communities/dp/9004141448">Living in the Shadow of the Large Dams</a>. In response to the dam being built many people migrated upstream and formed the fishing communities that now populate the shores of Volta Lake. Those who stayed and continued farming had to adapt their agricultural practices by planting in low-lying areas closer to the Volta River. </p>
<p>Subsequently, settlements expanded into the former flood plains along the river. These areas have now been inundated by the flooding caused by the spillage at Akosombo. </p>
<h2>Woeful response</h2>
<p>The current flooding raises the question of who is responsible and who must compensate those who have been affected. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://ghanalegal.com/laws_subdomain/acts/id/72/volta-river-development-act/">1961 Volta River Development Act (Act 46)</a>, the Volta River Authority has a statutory responsibility to prevent Volta Lake from rising to a height of 85.3 metres above sea level and cresting the dam. </p>
<p>In addition, the Volta River Authority should prevent the “flow of water past the dam” from causing “flooding downstream from dam above the levels which were normal” prior to the construction of Akosombo. </p>
<p>Finally, the authority has to “take reasonable measures to give warning of possible flooding from the lake or from the River Volta downstream from the dam.” </p>
<p>The Volta River Authority preserved the integrity of the Akosombo Dam by opening the floodgates and spilling the lake’s excess water. But it failed in its other tasks. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>It did not maintain an unoccupied flood zone which could absorb the excess water. </p></li>
<li><p>It failed to give people a timely warning to evacuate. The managers of the dam organised a simulation exercise for surrounding communities in May 2023.</p></li>
<li><p>It did not help people in the flood zones to move out of danger with their belongings.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In my view, the Volta River Authority, and by extension the Ghanaian state, have a moral obligation to compensate the people affected by the spillage and the subsequent floods. </p>
<p>Although the authority has income through the sale of electricity, it <a href="https://www.vra.com/resources/annual_reports/2022%20VRA%20Group%20Audited%20Annual%20Reports%20and%20Financial%20Statements.pdf">operated at a loss</a> in 2022, due to increased administrative expenses triggered by inflation. The Ghanaian state is also <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/5/lack-of-safety-nets-hurt-ghanas-most-vulnerable-as-economic-woes-deepen">facing deficits</a>. So there is little certainty about whether the residents of the Lower Volta will receive compensation. </p>
<p>One would hope that the Volta River Authority and the Ghanaian state would finally address some of the historical injustice experienced by the communities in the Lower Volta since the early 1960s.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Miescher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communities along the bank of the dam have been victims of injustice since the early 1960s.Stephan Miescher, Professor of History, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2156312023-11-16T14:47:59Z2023-11-16T14:47:59ZClimate change and farming: economists warn more needs to be done to adapt in sub-Saharan Africa<p>Sub-Saharan African countries strongly rely on the agricultural and forestry sectors. Agriculture contributes up to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=ZG">60%</a> of some countries’ gross domestic product. But the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change because it relies heavily on climatic factors. This vulnerability is particularly marked in the region because of its slow rate of technological advancement.</p>
<p>As agricultural economists we carried out a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">review</a> of the literature on the climate change challenge for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. We explored the distribution of various climatic factors (like rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events) across the region, and their impact on agriculture. We also investigated what rural farmers were doing to respond to climate change. </p>
<p>We found that the implications of climate change for agricultural and economic development are diverse across the region. It is difficult to predict exactly how climate change will affect agriculture and economic development. </p>
<p>But is is clear that sub-Saharan African countries like Nigeria, South Africa, Botswana, and Kenya are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">extremely vulnerable</a> to <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/cop25/climate-change-africa">climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Farmers are not using effective adaptation strategies. These include planting drought tolerant crop varieties, and conserving water and soil. Limited resources and infrastructure have held them back. Mitigation programmes such as carbon pricing, water management, recycling, afforestation and reforestation have had limited impact. Poor climate change awareness, unstable government policies and political instability have hindered the programmes.</p>
<p>The impact of climate change on vulnerable households will be extreme if adequate measures are not taken in time. Research suggests that countries such as Togo, Nigeria, Congo and Mali will record more agricultural <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf#page=13">losses</a> without adaptation. Governments, international organisations, local communities and other stakeholders need to develop strategies to address the diverse needs of rural farmers in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<h2>What our review found</h2>
<p>The studies we reviewed indicated that patterns of rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events have changed significantly in the region. This trend is not expected to change in future decades.</p>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa experiences <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652623016451">diverse rainfall patterns</a>. Annual rainfall can be as low as 100 millimetres in arid areas in the Sahel and parts of east Africa and over 500 millimetres in tropical areas in central and western Africa. </p>
<p>Temperatures can often exceed 40°C (104°F) during the hottest months. Over the last century, the mean temperature has <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">increased</a> by about 0.74°C. </p>
<p>The region <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000292">experiences</a> various extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and heatwaves. Coastal areas, especially in the eastern and southern regions, experience <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/cyclones-more-frequent-storms-threaten-africa/">cyclones or tropical storms</a>.</p>
<p>Many studies show that these conditions affect agricultural production and society in a number of ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Yield reduction: Climate change reduces crop yield. Higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts and floods affect harvests. For instance, farmers in Nigeria have seen lower yields caused by new pests, disease outbreaks and the drying up of rivers. </p></li>
<li><p>Food insecurity: Poor agricultural productivity often leads to food insecurity, which affects both rural and urban populations. Lower crop yields can cause prices to rise. Reduced access to food can worsen malnutrition and hunger.</p></li>
<li><p>Income loss and poverty: Lower agricultural output affects the income of smallholder farmers. This can increase poverty levels and economic vulnerability. We found a decline in cereal production over the last decade in Ghana, Congo and South Africa. </p></li>
<li><p>Decreased livestock productivity: Higher temperatures, changes in forage availability, and water scarcity are a challenge for livestock farmers. These make livestock prone to diseases and death. Farmers incur high costs to immunise and treat animals.</p></li>
<li><p>Vulnerability of smallholder farmers: These farmers don’t always have the resources and capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change.</p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Recommendation and policy implications</h2>
<p>The review of studies showed that sub-Saharan Africa could develop economically if rural farmers took more effective measures against climate change.</p>
<p>We made the following recommendations to protect farmers from the impact of climate change:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Strengthen institutions for policy development and implementation. Coordinating climate change adaptation efforts and sustainable agricultural practices improves farm productivity. </p></li>
<li><p>Improve rural infrastructure. This would promote economic growth, reduce poverty and make rural communities more resilient. </p></li>
<li><p>Initiate public welfare programmes. Improved access to finance, markets, education and climate information would enhance social protection.</p></li>
<li><p>Establish more forest plantations and maintain existing ones. They would help absorb the impact of climate change on agriculture and promote economic development.</p></li>
<li><p>Afforestation and reforestation can also help absorb carbon and conserve biodiversity.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215631/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso. Researcher at Oyo State College of Agriculture and Technology, Igboora, Nigeria </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abiodun Olusola Omotayo receives funding from The Climap Africa programme,German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD-Grant Ref: 91838393), Germany and the National Research Foundation’s (NRF), Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers (Grant number: 151680), South Africa. </span></em></p>Smallholder farmers are bearing the brunt of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Deliberate steps are required to support them and boost agricultural output,Abeeb Babatunde Omotoso, Postdoctoral research associate, North-West UniversityAbiodun Olusola Omotayo, Senior lecturer/researcher, North-West UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2161532023-11-12T14:02:39Z2023-11-12T14:02:39ZCanada must stop treating climate disasters like unexpected humanitarian crises<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canada-must-stop-treating-climate-disasters-like-unexpected-humanitarian-crises" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Two years after devastating wildfires razed 90 per cent of Lytton, B.C., <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9805133/lytton-bc-rebuild-two-years-devastating-wildfire/">reconstruction is slow</a> and residents remain displaced and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/10034980/lytton-residents-protest-slow-pace-of-rebuilding">angry about it</a>. </p>
<p>This summer, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-wildfires-crews-battle-stop-blaze-yellowknife-evacuates-2023-08-17/">65 per cent of the Northwest Territories’ 46,000 residents evacuated</a>, including almost the entire population of Yellowknife, due to a wildfire. </p>
<p>The year 2023, in fact, marked Canada’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/10/18/canada-historic-2023-wildfire-season-end/">worst-ever</a> wildfire season, with nearly 19 million hectares of forest scorched by mid-October. </p>
<p>Unfortunately the cycle of disaster and displacement is not new in Canada, according to the <a href="https://cdd.publicsafety.gc.ca/">Canadian Disaster Database</a>. It indicates 351 disasters took place from 2000-2020, resulting in the displacement of an estimated 569,224 people and almost $20 billion in costs. </p>
<h2>Humanitarian approach</h2>
<p>Canada faces a <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/canada-in-a-changing-climate/19918">growing list of climate-related crises</a>, and the impact and financial costs of these crises are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">expected to worsen</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, Canada saw <a href="https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/severe-weather-in-2022-caused-3-1-billion-in-insured-damage-making-it-the-3rd-worst-year-for-insured-damage-in-canadian-history">$3.1 billion in insured losses</a>, more than five times higher than the annual average over 1983 to 2008. This “new normal” includes annual multi-billion-dollar insured losses following increasingly destructive climate-driven events.</p>
<p>Canada’s response to climate-related disasters follows a familiar pattern — local authorities and provincial and territorial resources become overwhelmed, prompting the federal government and the Canadian Armed Forces <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-lentus.html">to intervene</a>. </p>
<p>This reliance on the army as a “<a href="https://www.cigionline.org/articles/canadian-armed-forces-and-humanitarian-assistance-and-disaster-relief-defining-role/">force of first resort</a>” for domestic emergencies is costly and logistically challenging. </p>
<p>Essentially, Canada’s approach mirrors the humanitarian approach to international crises. However, these recurring disasters <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eyre-military-readiness-challenge-1.6603430">are straining</a> the armed forces’ capacity to respond effectively, leading to <a href="https://www.naadsn.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/21-dec-Kikkert-Disaster-Workforce-Policy-Brief.pdf">questions about the adequacy</a> of how Canada currently handles environmental disasters.</p>
<p>Fundamentally, humanitarianism involves saving lives and safeguarding vulnerable populations. Internationally, humanitarian aid focuses on immediate necessities during emergencies, sometimes in contrast to international development aimed at enhancing long-term human well-being. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, investments in long-term international development <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/gsdr/gsdr2023">have been underfunded</a> for years, while global spending on short-term humanitarian assistance reached nearly <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/global-humanitarian-assistance-report-2023/executive-summary/">US$50 billion</a> in 2022. </p>
<h2>Deferring investments</h2>
<p>Many governments apparently prefer responding with humanitarian aid after disasters, rather than supporting development activities that would reduce disaster impacts. That’s problematic.</p>
<p>Federal and provincial governments have deferred expensive investments that would reduce the impact of extreme weather events, just as they continue <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">to avoid climate action policies related to urban land use, mass transit and emissions</a> from oil and gas extraction. </p>
<p>This “<a href="https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/closing-canada-s-adaptation-gap.pdf">climate adaptation gap</a>” is the impetus behind Canada’s first National Climate Adaptation Strategy introduced earlier this year. The gap is evident in the <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/clean-electricity-regulations-released-energy-prices">ongoing resistance</a> from high-emitting provinces over the federal government’s clean electricity targets and its goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1673820628867076097"}"></div></p>
<p>Despite the fact that a <a href="https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/new-data-shows-85-percent-of-canadians-want-action-on-climate-adaptation">large majority</a> of Canadians support increased investments in climate action, governments continue to pass the buck on climate policy. Instead, endless debates over carbon pricing monopolize much of the public discussion on climate policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadians-in-every-riding-support-climate-action-new-research-shows-122918">Canadians in every riding support climate action, new research shows</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In doing so, governments are in effect creating different classes of Canadian citizens. Rural, remote, northern and Indigenous communities located further from southern cities and emergency management resources will remain reliant on the Canadian Armed Forces to come to their aid in times of crisis. </p>
<p>If the frequency of such disasters increases while the army’s capacity to respond is already strained, then these communities will continue to experience humanitarian responses that do little to protect their communities in advance and fail to support reconstruction or strengthen community resilience for the future. </p>
<h2>Policy choice</h2>
<p>This shortfall in climate adaptation and preparedness is a policy choice that has significant implications for Canadians. </p>
<p>The current humanitarian model for responding to environmental disasters is politically expedient, but it’s neither cheap nor effective. It is also contrary to our understanding of sovereignty. </p>
<p>Sovereignty involves a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199376346.003.0002">social contract</a> in which governments pledge to protect their citizens in exchange for their loyalty to its institutions and constitutional order. </p>
<p>Protecting citizens requires defending them when threats arise and preparing for those threats. When governments fail to adequately safeguard their citizens, respond only after crises have already begun or neglect long-term needs, they fall short of their responsibilities.</p>
<p>As residents of one of the world’s wealthiest nations, Canadians should demand greater accountability from their governments to reduce the need for last-minute humanitarian efforts in the face of climate-related disasters in their communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wilfrid Greaves receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Department of National Defence.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yvonne Su does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canadians should demand greater accountability from their governments to reduce the need for last-minute humanitarian efforts in the face of climate-related disasters in their communities.Will Greaves, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of VictoriaYvonne Su, Assistant Professor in the Department of Equity Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126902023-11-02T19:12:25Z2023-11-02T19:12:25ZTaming wild northern rivers could harm marine fisheries and threaten endangered sawfish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556797/original/file-20231031-23-pl3bb0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C2198%2C1504&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth Image Landsat/Copernicus</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s tropical northern rivers still run wild and free. These relatively pristine areas have so far avoided extensive development. But this might not last. There are <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/national/northern-australia">ongoing scoping studies exploring irrigating agricultural land</a> using water from these rivers.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01238-x">new research</a> in the journal Nature Sustainability shows disturbing the delicate water balance upstream can have major consequences downstream, even hundreds of kilometres away.</p>
<p>Using our latest computer modelling, we found northern water resource development would have substantial effects on prawn, mud crab and barramundi fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria. These are valuable Australian marine fisheries which depend on healthy estuaries. Reducing river flows would also disturb mangrove and seagrass habitats and threaten the iconic endangered largetooth sawfish.</p>
<p>Freshwater flows to the sea play a crucial role, boosting the productivity of marine, estuarine and freshwater systems. These complex interactions must be carefully considered in the assessment of future development plans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic illustrating how altering river flow influences downstream estuarine and marine species and habitats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556412/original/file-20231029-25-tiz5y6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changing the natural river flow regime has consequences for estuarine and marine species and fisheries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Chen in Plaganyi et al (2023) Nature Sustainability</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-we-protect-mangroves-we-protect-our-fisheries-our-towns-and-ourselves-214390">If we protect mangroves, we protect our fisheries, our towns and ourselves</a>
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<h2>Rivers are our lifeblood</h2>
<p>Worldwide, few wild running rivers remain. Their future is uncertain given <a href="https://turningthetide.watercommission.org/">growing demand for water</a>. </p>
<p>Climate change is putting extra pressure on rivers as temperatures rise, rainfall patterns shift and <a href="https://theconversation.com/marine-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-lasting-longer-and-doing-more-damage-95637">extreme events</a> become more frequent. </p>
<p>Rivers are the lifeblood of ecosystems and communities. They connect land, estuaries and the sea. But assessments of river developments <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.abj4017">often focus narrowly on local effects</a>. They ignore the fact downstream estuaries and marine systems depend on freshwater flows. Few studies have calculated the costs of upstream catchment developments to downstream estuarine and marine ecosystems and fisheries.</p>
<p>We must avoid the <a href="https://theconversation.com/damming-northern-australia-we-need-to-learn-hard-lessons-from-the-south-53885">mistakes made in southern Australia</a> where <a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">too much water has been taken out of the system</a> for growing crops. That means carefully evaluating the design of dams or irrigation schemes, considering when, where and how much water should be taken – and the likely trade-offs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo showing many common banana prawns on a trawler. This is one of several species caught by the Northern Prawn Fishery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556413/original/file-20231029-25-u36qo0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yields of common banana prawn vary depending on river flows from multiple catchments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NPF Industry Pty Ltd, Australian Council of Prawn Fisheries Ltd, Austral Fisheries and Raptis Seafoods</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why should we care about northern rivers?</h2>
<p>Australia’s remote northern rivers are one of the last strongholds for endangered species such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-largetooth-sawfish-24558">largetooth sawfish</a>. These iconic species are born in estuaries before spending their first few years of life upstream in freshwater rivers. </p>
<p>Flows from these rivers also sustain extensive mangrove forests and seagrass beds. Periodic floods <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-30/barramundi-banana-prawns-could-be-threatened-gulf-of-carpentaria/12828280">boost the food supply</a> for many prized marine fisheries such as prawns, barramundi and <a href="https://tinyurl.com/2haudz3t">mud crabs</a>.</p>
<p>The rivers also have <a href="https://indigenousknowledge.unimelb.edu.au/curriculum/resources/indigenous-voices-in-water">cultural significance</a> for Aboriginal people and represent a valuable resource, providing food and supporting livelihoods. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photo of an endangered largetooth sawfish in shallow water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556411/original/file-20231029-27-eror37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Endangered largetooth sawfish are sensitive to changes in river flows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rich Pillans/CSIRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-el-nino-hit-this-banana-prawn-fishery-hard-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-their-experience-139852">An El Niño hit this banana prawn fishery hard. Here’s what we can learn from their experience</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Using modelling to connect rivers, estuaries and oceans</h2>
<p>We coupled CSIRO’s sophisticated <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/showcase/nawra">river models</a> with our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00488.x">specially tailored ecosystem models</a> to represent how altering river flows may influence the downstream ecology and fishery yields. </p>
<p>We used catch data from fisheries to analyse how past natural changes in flow influenced catch rates. This was combined with extensive previous research on the biology and ecology of each species to model the dynamics of catchment-to-coast systems. We were particularly interested in the natural life cycles of fish and crustaceans in our unique northern wet-dry tropical rivers and estuaries. We then simulated multiple water resource development scenarios to assess and compare various impacts and ways to reduce them. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two column charts showing risk to key populations and fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria from changes in freshwater flows." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547140/original/file-20230908-15-efu6e7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=707&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We quantified risk to key populations and fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria from changes in freshwater flows due to various hypothetical water resource developments (WRD).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Plagányi et al. (2023) Nature Sustainability</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For <a href="https://tinyurl.com/2haudz3t">mud crabs, we linked river flow</a> and other climate drivers to their life cycle and were able to show how past changes in flow could explain the past variation in crab catch, particularly for rivers in which flow was seasonally variable. We could then use this model to predict how crab catch and abundance might change in the future, depending on how much water is removed from rivers and the method of removal.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial image of an estuary feeding into the Gulf of Carpentaria" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546574/original/file-20230906-27-vx8vj3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rivers connect land, estuaries and the sea. Large estuaries feed into the Gulf of Carpentaria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-industry-lines-up-to-take-water-from-a-wild-top-end-river-trees-tell-the-story-of-a-much-drier-past-177221">As industry lines up to take water from a wild Top End river, trees tell the story of a much drier past</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Integrated management from catchment to coast</h2>
<p>Our research shows freshwater flows to the sea are crucial for environmentally and economically important species. Any plan to dam or extract freshwater from Australia’s last wild rivers should account for these effects.</p>
<p>Coupling scientific knowledge about marine and freshwater ecosystems with catchment development will improve infrastructure planning and flow management.</p>
<p>This is vital on a dry continent already <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-caused-by-climate-change-has-damaged-45-of-australias-coastal-habitat-120671">challenged by climate change</a>. Every drop counts.</p>
<p><em>The authors wish to acknowledge Annie Jarrett, Chief Executive Officer of NPF Industry Pty Ltd, which represents Northern Prawn Fishery operators, for her contribution to the research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212690/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Éva Plagányi acknowledges Annie Jarrett, Chief Executive Officer of NPF Industry Pty Ltd, which represents Northern Prawn Fishery operators, for her contribution to the research.
Éva works for CSIRO and receives research funding from several sources, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).
2018-079 Ecological modelling of the impacts of water development in the Gulf of Carpentaria with particular reference to impacts on the NPF was supported by funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation on behalf of the Australian Government</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Blamey works for CSIRO, which receives research funding from several source, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michele Burford works for the Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University and receives funding from several sources, including the National Environmental Science Program (NESP).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Kenyon works CSIRO, an organisation that receives research funding from several sources, including the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).</span></em></p>Any plan to dam or extract water from some of Australia’s last wild rivers must carefully consider the consequences. Prawn, mud crab and barramundi fisheries could suffer in the Gulf of Carpentaria.Éva Plagányi, Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIROLaura Blamey, Senior Research Scientist, CSIROMichele Burford, Professor - Australian Rivers Institute, and Dean - Research Infrastructure, Griffith UniversityRobert Kenyon, Marine Ecologist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138662023-10-10T19:06:17Z2023-10-10T19:06:17ZWhy Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it<p>Australia has <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-legislates-emissions-reduction-targets">a legislated target</a> to reduce greenhouse emissions, a federal government with commitments <a href="https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/the-82-per-cent-national-renewable-energy-target-where-did-it-come-from-and-how-can-we-get-there/#:%7E:text=A%20national%20renewable%20electricity%20target,Interconnected%20System%2C%20and%20the%20North">to increase the share of renewable electricity</a> and reduce power prices, and a globally important economic opportunity at its feet. </p>
<p>In the second half of the government’s current term, delivery looks hard across the board. All is not lost, but we must transform our economy to a timetable. The unprecedented scale and pace of the economic transformation, and the consequences of failure, demand an unprecedented response. </p>
<p>To get things on track requires the government to develop a plan with the right mix of political commitment, credible policies, coordination with industry, and support from communities. And, critically, the plan must be implemented. Too often targets have been set without being linked to policies to achieve them, or linked so poorly that the extra cost and delay sets back the climate transition.</p>
<p>By the middle of this year, Australia’s emissions were <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/policy-topics/measuring-what-matters/dashboard/emissions-reduction">25% below the 2005 level</a>. But the trend of steady reductions has stalled, and sectors such as <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021Fact%20sheet%20-%20Transport.pdf">transport</a> and agriculture have moved in the wrong direction. </p>
<p>Such ups and downs will continue in response to external events, as we have seen with COVID, droughts, and war on the other side of the world. Policies must be flexible if they are to remain broadly on course in the face of such events. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Trouble in the power department</h2>
<p>The detail matters: national emissions reductions <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-march-2023.pdf">have slowed</a>, as has <a href="https://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/cec-australian-wind-and-solar-investment-slows-in-q2-energy-storage-booms/#:%7E:text=The%20slowdown%20in%20investment%20in,support%20from%20the%20federal%20government.">the growth in renewable generation</a> towards the government’s 2030 target of 82%. </p>
<p>At the same time, the government’s <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/policies/powering-australia">target of lower power bills</a> by 2025 looks out of reach, and electricity reliability is threatened as coal-fired generation closes without adequate replacement.</p>
<p>The production and use of natural gas <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Flame-out-Grattan-report.pdf">contributes around 20%</a> of Australia’s emissions. The use of gas in industry will be covered by the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-Safeguard-Mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20has%20been%20in%20place%20since%201%20July,must%20manage%20their%20excess%20emissions.">Safeguard Mechanism</a>, a policy designed by the Coalition and now revised by Labor, to drive down emissions from the country’s 200 biggest emitters. </p>
<p>Emissions from gas-fired power generation will fall with the growth of renewables. But there are no constraints on fossil gas use in other sectors, such as our homes. </p>
<p>Industrial emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-30-of-australias-emissions-come-from-industry-tougher-rules-for-big-polluters-is-a-no-brainer-190264">slowly growing</a>. The huge amount of hype about green hydrogen has so far proven to be little more than that: Australia continues to have lots of potential green hydrogen projects, but <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-leads-world-in-green-hydrogen-hype-and-hope-but-not-in-actual-projects/">virtually none are delivered</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, we remain without <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/fuel-efficiency-standard-cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australia-consultation-paper-april2023.pdf">constraints on vehicle emissions</a>, and with a large herd of <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP22299#:%7E:text=In%20Australia%2C%2071%25%20of%20agricultural,by%20grazing%20sheep%20and%20cattle.">grazing cattle and sheep</a> whose emissions are determined more by the weather than the actions of our best-meaning farmers.</p>
<h2>The risk of swinging from naive to negative</h2>
<p>So, we are in a hard place. Naïve optimism about an easy, cheap transition to net zero is at risk of giving way to brutal negativity that it’s all just too hard. The warnings of early spring fires and floods in Australia and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/extreme-temperatures-recorded-across-northern-hemisphere">extreme heat</a> during the most recent northern hemisphere summer will feed this tension.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>The federal government’s latest <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational</a> Report provides a deeply disturbing snapshot of the potential economic impacts if we fail to get climate change under control. Yet in a world 3 to 4 degrees hotter than pre-industrial levels, economic impacts could be the least of our worries.</p>
<p>The task is unparalleled outside wartime. Within 30 years we must manage the decline of fossil fuel extractive sectors, transform every aspect of our energy and transport sectors, reindustrialise much of manufacturing, and find solutions to difficult problems in agriculture.</p>
<p>What’s to be done?</p>
<h2>The need for a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee</h2>
<p>We should begin with leadership across the federal government, coordinated with the states and territories. The best structure might be a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee with two clear objectives – to develop and begin implementing a national net zero transformation plan by the end of 2024. </p>
<p>Modern governments are more than happy to set targets and announce plans to meet them. They seem to have lost the capacity or will to implement such plans. The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/net-zero-economy-agency#:%7E:text=The%20Net%20Zero%20Economy%20Agency,of%20the%20net%20zero%20economy.">Net Zero Economy Agency</a>, created in July and chaired by former Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, could be charged with that task.</p>
<p>The first step is being taken – the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/">Climate Change Authority</a> is now advising on emissions reduction targets for 2035 and perhaps beyond. The government’s work to create pathways to reducing emissions in every economic sector must be used to build a comprehensive set of policies that are directly linked to meeting the targets.</p>
<h2>How to get electricity moving in the right direction</h2>
<p>The electricity sector can be put on track with three actions. One, drive emissions reduction towards net zero using a sector-focused policy such as the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target">Renewable Energy Target</a> or the Safeguard Mechanism. </p>
<p>Two, implement the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a>, a policy intended to deliver dispatchable electricity capacity to balance a system built on intermittent wind and solar supply. </p>
<p>Three, set up a National Transmission Agency to work with the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en">Australian Energy Market Operator</a> (AEMO) to plan the national transmission grid and with authority to direct, fund, and possibly own that grid.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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</em>
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<p>For heavy industry, the scale and pace of change demands a 21st-century industry policy, in three parts. Activities such as coal mining will be essentially incompatible with a net-zero economy. Activities such as steel-making may be able to transform through economic, low-emissions technologies. </p>
<p>Finally, activities such as low-emissions extraction and processing of critical energy minerals, which are insignificant today but which in time could help Australia to capitalise on globally significant comparative advantages. </p>
<h2>Create a plan – and stick to it</h2>
<p>The government has made a good start by revising the Safeguard Mechanism and the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/publications/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy">Hydrogen Strategy</a> and developing a <a href="https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/industries/net-zero/critical-minerals#:%7E:text=Australia's%20Critical%20Mineral%20Strategy%202023,raw%20and%20processed%20critical%20minerals.">Critical Minerals Strategy</a>. These should be brought together in an overarching policy framework with consistent, targeted policies linked to clear goals, developed and executed in sustained collaboration with industry. </p>
<p>The Safeguard Mechanism will need to be extended beyond 2030 and its emissions threshold for the companies it covers lowered to 25,000 tonnes of emissions per year.</p>
<p>Industry funding will probably need to expand, and give priority to export-oriented industries that will grow in a net-zero global economy. And the federal and state governments should phase out all programs that encourage expansion of fossil fuel extraction or consumption.</p>
<p>In transport, long-delayed emissions standards should be set and implemented. Finally, government-funded research, some of it already underway, should focus on difficult areas such as early-stage emissions reduction technologies in specific heavy industries, transport subsectors, and emissions from grazing cattle and sheep.</p>
<p>There is little new or radical in the elements of this plan. What would be new is a commitment to its design and implementation. This is what government needs to do now. The consequences of failure are beyond our worst fears, the benefits of success beyond our best dreams.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have a financial interest in companies relevant to the article through his superannuation fund. </span></em></p>Australia’s move towards net zero emissoions by 2020 is in danger of stalling. If it is not to fail, the nation urgently needs a government plan, aligned with industry and with public support.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145562023-10-06T02:56:29Z2023-10-06T02:56:29ZThe Voice could advise on how to address natural disasters like bushfires<p>After three wet years, bushfire season has begun again. We have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-heat-and-fire-this-summer-heres-how-to-prepare-212443">warned</a> this season could be a bad one. </p>
<p>With the last few years of epic rain, more fuel has grown to burn in what is predicted to be a hot, dry summer. Disaster events like bushfires are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity as the climate changes. Disasters will cascade and overlap – there may be no time to recover between one disaster and the next.</p>
<p>The Voice to Parliament has the potential to be an effective way to adapt to this riskier future. It will enable Aboriginal communities to better undertake the urgent tasks of planning and disaster preparation. </p>
<p>Importantly, all Australians could benefit from the Voice advising on strategies for how Australia can prepare for, and survive, disasters.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-voice-to-parliament-explained-212100">The Voice to Parliament explained</a>
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</em>
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<h2>First Nations people know how to adapt to changing climates</h2>
<p>First Nations people around the world have experience in successfully <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/indigenous-peoples-have-adapted-drought-millennia">adapting</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/recognising-indigenous-knowledges-is-not-just-culturally-sound-its-good-science-184444">changing climates</a>, reaching back tens of thousands of years.</p>
<p>Some Australians are already turning to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of Country to prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of natural hazards. First Nations strategies – from “cool burn” bushfire hazard reduction such as the world leading <a href="https://firetoflourish.monash/">Fire to Flourish</a> program, to <a href="https://water.dpie.nsw.gov.au/plans-and-programs/aboriginal-water-program">waterway management</a> – can prevent disasters, or reduce their scale.</p>
<p>There’s also the example of Northern Australia’s satellite <a href="https://theconversation.com/painting-with-fire-how-northern-australia-developed-one-of-the-worlds-best-bushfire-management-programs-205113">bushfire management program</a> developed in collaboration with Traditional Owners.</p>
<p>The Voice has the potential to provide the means for the Australian government to learn from this expertise. This could enable all Australians to see and benefit from the extraordinary strengths in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1709025642270859498"}"></div></p>
<h2>Natural disasters require community-supported responses</h2>
<p>Australia’s National Principles for Disaster Recovery <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/national-principles-for-disaster-recovery/">emphasise</a> that disaster management must be community-based. </p>
<p>Disaster management is not effective when government disaster responses do not <a href="https://theconversation.com/top-down-disaster-resilience-doesnt-work-the-national-recovery-and-resilience-agency-must-have-community-at-its-heart-160363">consider local knowledge</a>. The effect is often worsened when these responses also lack understanding of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures and <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/sites/default/files/managed/downloads/hazards_culture_and_indigenous_communities_final_report_2021.pdf">ways of working</a>. </p>
<p>One example of this was during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/like-many-disasters-in-australia-aboriginal-people-are-over-represented-and-under-resourced-in-the-nsw-floods-178420">Lismore floods</a>. Local Indigenous communities argued that a failure to include Aboriginal knowledge in the planning and response to the floods resulted in residents being left <a href="https://www.lismorecitynews.com.au/story/7843817/nsw-flood-response-inept-indigenous-group/">stranded on rooftops</a> and surviving without water and electricity for days. Communities have since <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-04/success-of-koori-mail-flood-response-in-lismore-first-responders/101274516">called</a> for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander first responders.</p>
<p>Disaster events in Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/like-many-disasters-in-australia-aboriginal-people-are-over-represented-and-under-resourced-in-the-nsw-floods-178420?utm_medium=amptwitter&utm_source=twitter">can impact</a> Indigenous people <a href="https://theconversation.com/effects-of-climate-change-such-as-flooding-makes-existing-disadvantages-for-indigenous-communities-so-much-worse-192090">disproportionately</a>. Poor housing, lack of access to resources and a higher prevalence of ill health render First Nations peoples more likely to be negatively impacted by heatwaves, floods and fires. This also means fewer resources and infrastructure to help these communities recover from these disasters after they occur. </p>
<p>Lack of external support has often led to First Nations communities leading disaster response for themselves. In Lismore, support and help for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families came from the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community itself. Despite significant flood damage to their building, <a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-and-the-covid-19-pandemic-reveal-the-crucial-role-of-first-nations-media-178769">The Koori Mail</a> – a Lismore-produced local newspaper – organised food, material needs and social support to the local Koori (Aboriginal) community.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1696407291258691900"}"></div></p>
<p>Larrakia, Tiwi, Yolŋu and Desert people in the Northern Territory have similar stories of working together. In the past they have <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/globalassets/cms-assets/documents/emergency-services/disaster-resilience-management.pdf">coordinated</a> with friends and family to care for the young, sick and elderly in emergency events such as cyclones and bushfires. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>All Australians need to learn from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander disaster management</h2>
<p>In every disaster there are calls to <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-back-better-sounds-great-in-theory-but-does-the-government-really-know-what-it-means-in-practice-200514#:%7E:text=Building%20back%20better%20requires%20resilience,for%20recovery%20monitoring%20and%20evaluation">“build back better”</a> – that is, to reimagine how we live and how we can live well together. First Nations communities globally do this work every day. Although First Nations people are only around 6% of the world’s population, their respective lands house <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/climate-academy/2020/oct/12/indigenous-communities-protect-biodiversity-curb-climate-crisis">80% of the world’s biodiversity</a>.</p>
<p>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people <a href="https://theconversation.com/caring-for-country-means-tackling-the-climate-crisis-with-indigenous-leadership-3-things-the-new-government-must-do-183987">provide models</a> for how to live differently, in ways that care for Country and prevent climate change and its disasters. </p>
<p>The Voice is crucial for enabling Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities to prepare for, respond to and remain resilient to the disasters that lie ahead of all of us. It also has the potential to enrich the lives of all Australians as we imagine a different, more caring, more equal future through each disaster, together.</p>
<p>As others have noted, the Voice could provide <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/22/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-anthony-albanese-public-funds-cost-saving">cost-efficient</a> policy solutions to Indigenous affairs. This could also be the case for effective disaster planning and responses. </p>
<p>We have seen First Nations communities successfully advise on how to look after Country, and this includes planning for a hazardous future. The Voice could provide this on a national scale. </p>
<p>What we learn about effective community-led disaster management in the process will benefit us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214556/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Hooker is affiliated with The Arts Health Network NSW/ACT. She partners with the Creative Recovery Network. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Dickson receives funding from NH&MRC and the MRFF research funding schemes.</span></em></p>The Voice to Parliament could advise on how Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledges can help the country prepare for and lessen the damage of natural disasters such as bushfires.Claire Hooker, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator, Health and Medical Humanities, University of SydneyMichelle Dickson, Director, The Poche Centre for Indigenous Health Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136802023-09-21T13:44:56Z2023-09-21T13:44:56ZWas the freak ‘medicane’ storm that devastated Libya a glimpse of North Africa’s future?<p>Storm Daniel landed on the Libyan coastal town of Toukrah in the early hours of September 10 and started moving east. Soon the wind was rising and heavy rain falling, forcing people to stay indoors. By afternoon the rain was clearly out of the ordinary. </p>
<p>Albaydah city on the coast would receive 80% of its annual rain before midnight, according to records from a local weather station that we have accessed. In less than 24 hours, thousands of people were dead, hundreds of thousands were missing, and towns and villages across Jebel Akhdar (the Green Mountain) in north-eastern Libya resembled a Hollywood disaster movie.</p>
<p>Storm Daniel was a Mediterranean cyclone or hurricane (a so-called medicane) which struck Greece, Bulgaria, Libya, Egypt and Turkey over the course of a week. Medicanes are not rare. Such large storms happen in this part of the world every few years. But Daniel has proved to be the deadliest. </p>
<p>At the time of writing, the World Health Organization <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/17/africa/un-revises-libya-death-toll/index.html">estimates</a> that at least 3,958 people have died across Libya as a result of the floods, with more than 9,000 people still missing.</p>
<p>Daniel was not an exceptionally big storm though. The medicane with the highest wind speeds was medicane Ianos in September 2020, which killed around four people and caused more than €224 million (£193 million) of <a href="https://www.aon.com/getmedia/53674ecf-5d58-46d4-9e0c-5aa8e0d6f9cf/20210125-if-annual-cat-report.pdf">damage</a>. So what made Storm Daniel different?</p>
<h2>Less frequent, but stronger</h2>
<p>Like tropical cyclones, medicanes form in hot conditions at the end of summer. Most medicanes form to the west of the islands of Corsica and Sardinia. As they tend to strike the same regions each time, the people living in the western Mediterranean, southern Italy and western Greece, have built structures to deal with these storms and the occasional downpours they bring. </p>
<p>Daniel formed relatively far to the east and struck north-eastern Libya, which is rare. Dozens of people were killed in communities across Cyrenaica, the eastern portion of the country. </p>
<p>In the mountain gorge above the city of Derna, <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">two dams failed</a> in the middle of the night. Thousands of people, most of whom were asleep, are thought to have perished when the wave of water and debris swept down to the coast, destroying a quarter of the city.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A composite image of two aerial photographs of a city taken by satellite." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549091/original/file-20230919-29-ifhwp6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Derna, a city in eastern Libya, before and after Storm Daniel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth/Holly Squire</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since medicanes are formed in part by excess heat, events like this are highly sensitive to climate change. A rapid attribution study suggested greenhouse gas emissions made Daniel <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66854670">50 times more likely</a>.</p>
<p>Despite this, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">sixth assessment report</a> from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that medicanes are becoming less frequent but larger. Storm Daniel suggests where medicanes form and make landfall might be more important than their frequency and size. </p>
<p>So does Libya need to brace itself for more of these events in the future than it has in the past, even if they affect the western Mediterranean less often?</p>
<h2>Clues from the past</h2>
<p>An important clue might lie deep underground, inside caves within north-eastern Libya. Although the caves are often dry today, they contain stalagmites which formed when rain passed through the soil, into the rock and dripped into the cave below thousands of years ago.</p>
<p>These rock formations attest to times in the past when this region was considerably wetter. The caves in Libya – and in Tunisia and Egypt too – form these stalagmites when the global climate is warm. </p>
<p>These bygone warm periods are not quite the same as the warm periods IPCC forecasts suggest modern climate change will usher in. But the way a hot world, a relatively ice-free Europe and North America and a wet northern Africa have regularly coincided in the past is striking. Striking and difficult to understand.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pointed rocks hanging from a cave ceiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549081/original/file-20230919-23-c9s6mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stalagmites formed in the distant past contain clues about the ancient climate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/stalactites-stalagmites-large-underground-cave-beredine-1993995323">InFocus.ee/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s because the experiments that suggest medicanes will become less frequent as the climate warms belong to a pattern described by IPCC climate assessments, in which wet parts of the world are expected to get wetter and dry parts drier. So it is hard to understand why stalagmites tell us warmer periods in the past involved wetter conditions across the northern margin of the Sahara – one of the driest regions on Earth. </p>
<p>Fortunately, scientists can learn more from the way stalagmites sometimes grow imperfectly, leaving tiny blobs of water trapped between the crystals.</p>
<p>The stalagmite we recovered from <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-showing-the-locations-of-1-2-Susah-Cave-in-northern-Libya-and-nearby-site-Haua_fig1_309689349">Susah Cave</a> on the outskirts of Libya’s Susah city, which was severely damaged in the storm, had quite a lot of water in it from wet periods dating to 70,000 to 30,000 years ago. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in this water are suggestive of rain drawn from the Mediterranean. This could indicate more medicanes were hitting the Libyan coast then. </p>
<p>Our finding that more rain was falling above Susah Cave during warm periods suggests we should get more storms hitting eastern Libya as the climate warms. This is not quite what the IPCC forecasts, with their prediction of fewer but larger storms, show. </p>
<p>But storm strength is measured in wind speed, not rainfall. The caves could well be recording an important detail of past storminess which we’re not yet able to forecast. </p>
<p>Are stalagmites warning us that North Africa must prepare for future medicanes shifting further east? <a href="https://hosting.northumbria.ac.uk/greensahara/">Our ongoing research</a> aims to answer that question. </p>
<p>The pattern of ancient desert margins receiving more rain during warm periods despite the “dry gets drier” pattern of global climate models is not unique to northern Africa but found around the world. Over millions of years, globally warm periods almost always correspond with smaller deserts in Africa, Arabia, Asia and Australia. </p>
<p>This “dryland climate paradox” is important to unravel. Understanding the differences between climate models and studies of ancient rain will be key to navigating the future as safely as possible.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Rogerson receives funding from the UKRI Natural Environmental Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Belkasem Alkaryani and Mahjoor Lone do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate models suggest North Africa will get drier in future. But its caves tell a different story.Mike Rogerson, Senior Lecturer in Earth System Science, Northumbria University, NewcastleBelkasem Alkaryani, Lecturer in Geology, University of TobrukMahjoor Lone, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Palaeoclimatology, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137242023-09-19T12:18:13Z2023-09-19T12:18:13ZAs extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look a global warming’s role<p>Torrential downpours sent muddy water racing through streets in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/14/libya-flood-death-toll-derna-news/">Libya</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1699014872015479212">Greece</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/boy-rescued-from-flood-waters-after-record-heavy-rain-in-spain">Spain</a> and flooded parts of <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hong-kong-hit-with-heavy-rain-flooding-days-after-typhoon">Hong Kong</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/nyregion/nyc-flooding-video-photo.html">New York City</a> in September 2023. Thousands of people died in the city of Derna, Libya. Zagora, Greece, saw a record 30 inches of rain, the equivalent of <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">a year and a half of rain falling in 24 hours</a>.</p>
<p>A few weeks earlier, monsoon rains triggered deadly landslides and flooding in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VMBIlKjuKg">the Himalayas</a> that <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/heavy-rain-landslides-have-killed-at-least-72-people-this-week-in-indias-himalayas">killed dozens of people</a> in India.</p>
<p>After severe flooding on almost every continent this year, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">mudslides and flooding in California</a> in early 2023 and devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">floods in Vermont and New York</a> in July, it can seem like extreme rainfall is becoming more common.</p>
<p>So, what role does global warming play in this? And importantly, what can we do to adapt to this new reality?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and woman sit on a park bench with water up to the man's knees. The woman is sitting on the chair back. A car in the street is flooded up to the roof." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544111/original/file-20230822-17-ybv7br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A powerful storm system in 2023 flooded communities across Vermont and left large parts of the capital, Montpelier, underwater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/michelle-whitehouse-and-her-husband-will-whitehouse-from-news-photo/1526471468">John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a <a href="https://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/mohammed-ombadi/">climate scientist</a> with a background in civil engineering, I am interested in exploring the links between the science of climate change and extreme weather events on one hand and the impacts those events have on our daily lives on the other. Understanding the connections is crucial in order to develop sound strategies to adapt to climate change.</p>
<h2>Thirstier atmosphere, more extreme precipitation</h2>
<p>As temperatures rise, the warmer atmosphere can <a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ocean-observation/understanding-climate/air-and-water/">hold more water vapor</a>. Evaporation of water from land and oceans also increases. That water has to eventually come back to land and oceans. </p>
<p>Simply, as the atmosphere absorbs more moisture, it dumps more precipitation during storms. Scientists expect about a <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/">7% increase</a> in precipitation intensity during extreme storms for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. </p>
<p>This increase in the amount of moisture that air can hold is what scientists call the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2304077120">Clausius Clapeyron relationship</a>. But other factors, such as changes in wind patterns, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2304077120">storm tracks and how saturated the air is</a>, also play a role in how intense the precipitation is.</p>
<h2>Liquid vs. frozen: Rain matters most</h2>
<p>One factor that determines the severity of floods is whether water falls as rain or snow. The almost instantaneous runoff from rain, as opposed to the slower release of water from melting snow, leads to more severe flooding, landslides and other hazards – particularly in mountain regions and areas downstream, where about a quarter of the global population lives. </p>
<p>A higher proportion of extreme rainfall rather than snow is believed to have been a key contributor to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66519698">devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayas</a> in August 2023, though research is still underway to confirm that. Additionally, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025571">2019 examination of flood patterns</a> across 410 watersheds in the Western U.S. found that the largest runoff peaks driven by rainfall were more than 2.5 times greater than those driven by snowmelt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps show the US and other regions of the Northern Hemisphere with rising rainfall intensity. Western North America and the Himalayas stand out" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548585/original/file-20230915-29-73yoeq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainfall intensity is projected to increase more in certain regions by the end of the 21st century, based on climate model data. Light colors show a twofold increase and dark colors indicate an eightfold increase in future rainfall extremes compared to the recent past.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mohammed Ombadi.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06092-7">2023 study in the journal Nature</a>, my colleagues and I demonstrated that the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing at a faster rate than the Clausius Clapeyron relationship would suggest – up to 15% per 1 C (1.8 F) of warming – in high-latitude and mountain regions such as the Himalayas, Alps and Rockies.</p>
<p>The reason for this amplified increase is that rising temperatures are shifting precipitation toward more rain and less snow in these regions. A larger proportion of this extreme precipitation is falling as rain.</p>
<p>In our study, we looked at the heaviest rains in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1950s and found that the increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall varied with altitude. Mountains in the American West, parts of the Appalachian Mountains, the Alps in Europe and the Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountains in Asia also showed strong effects. Furthermore, climate models suggest that most of these regions are likely to see a sevenfold-to-eightfold increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events by the end of the 21st century.</p>
<h2>Flooding isn’t just a short-term problem</h2>
<p>Deaths and damage to homes and cities capture the lion’s share of attention in the aftermath of floods, but increased flooding also has long-term effects on water supplies in reservoirs that are crucial for communities and agriculture in many regions. </p>
<p>For example, in the Western U.S., reservoirs are often kept as close to full capacity as possible during the spring snowmelt to provide water for the dry summer months. The mountains act as natural reservoirs, storing winter snowfall and then releasing the melted snow at a slow pace.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548589/original/file-20230915-27-tbcn9v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A series of atmospheric rivers in California dumped so much water on the region that Tulare Lake, which had dried up years earlier, reemerged as water spread across miles of California farmland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/agribusiness-consultant-mark-grewel-stands-on-a-farm-road-news-photo/1249529651">Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06092-7">our recent findings</a> suggest that with the world rapidly shifting toward a climate dominated by heavy downpours of rain – not snow – water resource managers will increasingly have to leave more room in their reservoirs to store large amounts of water in anticipation of disasters to minimize the risk of flooding downstream.</p>
<h2>Preparing for a fiercer future</h2>
<p>Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing, but people still need to prepare for a fiercer climate. The destructive <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">storms that hit the Mediterranean region</a> in 2023 provide a cogent case for the importance of adaptation. They shattered records for extreme precipitation across many countries and caused extensive damage.</p>
<p>A main factor that contributed to the catastrophe in Libya was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-dam-collapse-happened-because-of-bad-management-not-bad-weather-213546">bursting of aging dams</a> that had managed water pouring down from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/12/deadly-libya-flooding-cause/">mountainous terrain</a>.</p>
<p>This underscores the importance of updating design codes so infrastructure and buildings are built to survive future downpours and flooding, and investing in new engineering solutions to improve resiliency and protect communities from extreme weather. It may also mean <a href="https://theconversation.com/managed-retreat-done-right-can-reinvent-cities-so-theyre-better-for-everyone-and-avoid-harm-from-flooding-heat-and-fires-163052">not building in regions</a> with high future risks of flooding and landslides.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Sept. 19, 2023, has been updated with flooding in New York City.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammed Ombadi has received funding from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to conduct the Nature study discussed in this article. </span></em></p>There’s a rule of thumb that rainfall intensity increases by about 7% per degree Celsius as temperatures rise. But the increase is much higher in the mountains, scientists found.Mohammed Ombadi, Assistant Professor of Climate and Space Sciences Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133042023-09-15T14:21:55Z2023-09-15T14:21:55ZHow weather ‘blocks’ have triggered more extreme heatwaves and floods across Europe<p>On several occasions this summer, Europe’s weather seemed to get itself stuck, leading to prolonged heatwaves and floods. In the UK, a long hot and dry spell throughout May and June gave way to a similarly persistent cool and wet period. </p>
<p>In September, Europe saw widespread flooding in southern Europe while the UK basked in its longest ever September heatwave. These were all the result of “<a href="https://x.com/TimWoollings/status/1668898975636676610?s=20">blocked” weather patterns</a>.</p>
<p>So what is blocking – and are events like this here to stay?</p>
<p>A blocking event is a disruption to the usual weather patterns of Earth’s middle latitudes. The normal state for Europe’s climate is to be led by the Atlantic, with weather systems forming over the ocean and sweeping eastward. Individual systems might bring sun or rain but in either case they are transient – here today and gone tomorrow. </p>
<p>This movement is closely linked to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-battle-for-the-jet-stream-is-raging-above-our-heads-125906">jet stream</a>: a fast-moving current of air which encircles the globe. This not only steers the weather systems but also drives the prevailing westerly winds that help keep Europe relatively cool in summer and mild in winter. </p>
<p>But when a block occurs, this prevailing maritime influence is lost. Blocking events are often responsible for the hottest days of summer but also the coldest days of winter. </p>
<p>Weather systems effectively ride the jet stream and distort it as they go. On weather maps we see this as a meandering of the jet, veering alternately north and south as it snakes its way east. </p>
<p>During blocking events, these meanders get larger until eventually the jet breaks up into swirling eddies. With the jet stream disrupted, weather patterns stick around, often for a week or longer. Some places get scorched while others are inundated, day after day. </p>
<p>Take the recent block, for example. The jet snaked south, then north, then south again, tracing out a giant Greek letter omega (Ω) over Europe. At the centre of the pattern was a large northward meander of the jet which kept warm air from further south stationary over France and the UK, gifting the latter <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/10/seven-days-of-30c-heat-in-september-is-new-uk-record-but-storms-on-the-way">seven days of 30°C heat</a>.</p>
<p>Flanking this on either side were southward meanders of colder air, which helped to anchor intense stationary cyclones. This resulted in huge amounts of rain falling across the Mediterranean, and hence floods: in Spain on one side of the omega, and in Greece and Libya on the other. </p>
<p>The latter were particularly affected as <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">Storm Daniel</a>, in the eastern part of the omega, intensified and developed signs of a “medicane”, or Mediterranean hurricane. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A weather map of north-west Europe showing the omega pattern." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548134/original/file-20230913-23-d0ia4s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">September’s ‘omega block’ concentrated hot, dry weather over the UK and floods over Southern Europe and North Africa. Map shown for September 7 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ecmwf.int/">European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Blocking occurs once or twice every season, on average. But rising temperatures due to climate change have yielded more intense heatwaves in the warm parts of the block. </p>
<p>Since warmer air holds more moisture, rainfall is also usually more <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-hourly-rainfall-extremes-are-changing-in-a-warming-climate/">intense</a>. If Europe had had exactly the same omega pattern 50 years ago, many of the impacts would have been weaker.</p>
<h2>Are blocking events getting more common?</h2>
<p>Some meteorologists argue that the jet stream is getting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8">weaker</a> and more prone to disruptions such as this. However, the trends are inconclusive and so these remain <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events/">theories</a>. </p>
<p>The fact that scientists disagree on this issue highlights how uncertain some of the effects of climate change still are. Humankind is clearly messing with a highly complex system that we do not fully understand. </p>
<p>Climate models <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z">indicate</a> that blocking might become rarer as the world warms and the jet stream shifts a little further north, on average. But this is still unclear and if it does happen, it’s likely to be a pretty small change. </p>
<p>Blocking isn’t going away any time soon and many impacts, such as heatwaves and flooding, are only likely to get worse with higher air temperatures. In fact, it’s quite likely that more severe events than those of this summer could strike in today’s climate. </p>
<p>Since blocking is relatively rare and sporadic, scientists don’t have a good sample of events on which to base their estimates of risk. It’s certainly possible that the blocks this summer could have lasted even longer than they did, or struck at a worse time.</p>
<p>Had they occurred at the peak of the annual cycle, rather than the start and end of the summer as they did, the heat would have been more intense. The UK’s first 40°C temperature was observed in July 2022 during a mercifully short heatwave. A persistent block at that time of year would be fierce. </p>
<p>And the jet stream itself adds another twist to the tale. The jet has tended to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095">shift south</a> over Europe in summers since 2000, in a pattern that favours relatively cool and wet conditions in north-west Europe. This appears to be a feature of natural variations in Earth’s climate, at least in part, but our understanding of this remains poor. </p>
<p>If or when the jet shifts back north, it would bring higher average summer temperatures as well as the risk of blocking-induced heatwaves. We had an early taste of this combination in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084601">2018</a>, the UK’s warmest summer on record. European summer heat has been getting <a href="https://theconversation.com/hottest-days-are-warming-twice-as-fast-as-average-summer-temperature-in-north-west-europe-new-research-205500">worse</a> due to climate change, but we should be preparing for even worse in the near future.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Woollings receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. For more on the jet stream, blocking and climate change, see Tim’s popular science book Jet Stream: A Journey Though our Changing Climate.</span></em></p>An ‘omega block’ helped Storm Daniel wreak devastation in Libya.Tim Woollings, Professor in Physical Climate Science, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126592023-09-04T13:36:18Z2023-09-04T13:36:18ZClimate change will affect hydropower – African countries must be prepared<p>Hydropower provides clean electricity to millions in Africa. It’s <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jan/IRENA_Market_Africa_2022_Summary.pdf">the largest</a> source of renewable energy on the continent and accounts for <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/resources/1/uploads/content/15%20energy%20future%20COL.png">nearly one quarter</a> of total electricity generation in sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries, however, have a much heavier reliance on it than others. For instance, hydropower accounts for at least <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">80%</a> of electricity generation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia. </p>
<p>The continent has a lot more hydropower potential too. With relatively abundant water resources, sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-017-0006-y">is estimated</a> to have 1.4 petawatt hours a year of untapped, low cost potential. To put this into perspective, 1 PWh of energy could power about half a billion households for one year, assuming each household consumes an average of about 5.5 kWh per day.</p>
<p>However, there are political and environmental concerns that planners must consider if they want to expand hydropower. The tensions between <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-dam-dispute-five-key-reads-about-how-it-started-and-how-it-could-end-187644">Ethiopia and downstream countries</a> in the Nile River basin, following the construction of the colossal Grand Renaissance Dam, are emblematic of this.</p>
<p>As a researcher who studies the linkages between energy systems and climate change, I’ve written a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">paper</a> that highlights why using or increasing dependency on hydropower involves climate-related risks. </p>
<p>The global and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-africas-unreported-extreme-weather-in-2022-and-climate-change/">regional climate is getting more extreme</a>. Events such as droughts and floods are becoming <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/warming-makes-droughts-extreme-wet-events-more-frequent-intense/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CGlobal%20warming%20is%20going%20to,their%20impacts%2C%20and%20adapting.%E2%80%9D">more frequent</a>. Worryingly, energy planning and management is not keeping pace with such changes <a href="https://powerafrica.medium.com/the-missing-link-understanding-power-transmission-financing-d33ca4846fbe">in most African countries</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate change threat to hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydroelectricity is generated by harnessing the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/kinetic-energy">kinetic energy</a> of water. This water may come from rivers or water that’s been stored in natural or artificial basins. Water flows through turbines which spin. The kinetic energy of the moving water is converted into <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/mechanical-energy">mechanical energy</a> and eventually into electrical energy.</p>
<p>A dam’s power output is, therefore, very sensitive to extreme changes in river and water availability. It’s also sensitive to permanent changes in the weather from when it was constructed.</p>
<p>I carried out an extensive <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619317998">review</a> of existing studies on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in different areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This included its impact on output, reliability and future hydropower prospects. </p>
<p>I found that the impact on hydropower output varies across regions. Countries in east Africa <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower/climate-impacts-on-african-hydropower">could benefit from a wetter climate</a> in terms of hydropower output. On the other hand, there are serious concerns that countries in southern Africa and western Africa will face a <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa#:%7E:text=The%20western%20part%20of%20Southern,will%20have%20implications%20for%20precipitation.">drier climate</a>. This would bring negative impacts. Drops in water levels mean turbines will operate at lower rates and therefore produce less electricity. Central Africa would be the least affected sub-region in terms of precipitation change and drought incidence.</p>
<p>The expected changes in precipitation levels and patterns are uncertain, however. Different climate models and scenarios offer a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x">mixed picture of how the future might unfold</a>, particularly over central and southwestern Africa. Still, there is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf">consensus</a> that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent with climate change. This will make power systems less reliable, unless there’s proper planning in place. </p>
<p>Several countries are more at risk than others because they depend largely, or entirely, on hydropower generation and have few back-up options available. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique and Sierra Leone. Some might even increase their dependency on hydropower. </p>
<p>Only some countries have made progress in diversifying their energy mix. Kenya, for instance, has developed and continues to plan for significant <a href="https://rapidtransition.org/stories/doing-development-differently-how-kenya-is-rapidly-emerging-as-africas-renewable-energy-superpower/">alternative renewable capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>Planning and management of power supply</h2>
<p>Several planning and management actions are needed to prepare for the effects of climate change on hydropower. This will ensure that citizens in sub-Saharan Africa benefit from a more reliable power supply.</p>
<p>First, hydropower-dependent countries need to accelerate their efforts to diversify their power mix. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf5848">A new study</a> demonstrated that African countries should increase investments in other renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. The study finds that in many areas, such as in the Zambezi and Niger river basins, renewables are becoming cost competitive or even cheaper than hydropower. The objective of investing in renewable sources of electricity is in line with the <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview">African Union’s Agenda 2063</a>. </p>
<p>Second, countries must address inadequate power transmission infrastructure. This contributes to the lack of resilience. Countries could benefit from transboundary power trading opportunities <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0539-0">among different</a> sources of renewable energy. For instance dry spells, leading to reduced river streamflow, might coincide with high solar PV outputs in neighbouring countries, or vice versa. This will require both adequate generation and transmission infrastructure in different countries. It’ll also need a high level of coordination among different power producers and countries.</p>
<p>Finally, it’s essential to include a nexus approach in power system planning. For example, when planning new hydropower projects, policymakers must assess the future need for water in farming and cities. They should also assess the potential risks of multiple sectors needing water simultaneously.</p>
<p>Overall, power system planners must work with a robust framework that accounts for the inter-dependencies between hydropower, water availability and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Different actions can increase the resilience of hydropower infrastructure and ensure a reliable and sustainable power supply.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africas-energy-sector-will-need-to-transform-radically-these-are-the-five-biggest-challenges-201791">Africa's energy sector will need to transform radically - these are the five biggest challenges</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212659/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giacomo Falchetta receives funding from the European Union H2020 project Long-Term Joint EU-AU Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy.</span></em></p>There’s a consensus that extreme hydrological events will increase throughout the continent. This will lead to growing issues with power system reliability.Giacomo Falchetta, Postdoctoral Research Scholar in Energy, Climate and Environment, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124542023-08-30T22:30:03Z2023-08-30T22:30:03ZFlood protection based on historical records is flawed – we need a risk model fit for climate change<p>Despite countries pouring billions of dollars into “protecting” communities, flood-related disasters are becoming more frequent and are <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/preparing-for-future-flooding-a-guide-for-local-government-in-new-zealand/part-one-climate-change-impacts-on-flooding/">projected to become even more severe</a> as the climate crisis worsens.</p>
<p>In fact, many areas that flooded during recent extreme weather events, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/auckland-floods-even-stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters-198736">Auckland</a> to <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/how-climate-change-exacerbated-the-2021-henan-floods/">Henan</a> in China, were deemed to be relatively safe. This should raise an obvious question: to what extent is our existing approach fit for purpose in a changing climate? </p>
<p>Traditionally, managing flooding has relied heavily on building higher levees or increasing the capacity of drainage systems. But this can be a mixed blessing. While they contain water most of the time, when levees or drains exceed their original design capacity, we experience damaging floods.</p>
<p>These technical solutions have tended to operate on a flawed assumption that future flooding can be reliably predicted based on decades of historical flood data. They also create the “levee effect” – a false sense of security that encourages development in still risk-prone areas.</p>
<p>As climate change brings unpredictable rainfall patterns and higher intensities, these historic design assumptions are falling well short of the realities. And it means there remains a “residual risk”, even when infrastructure improvements have been made or planned for.</p>
<h2>Red tape and risk</h2>
<p>We can use the analogy of wearing a seat-belt to understand residual risk. The belt will reduce harm in case of an accident, but it does not mean you are entirely protected from injury.</p>
<p>Now imagine road conditions and weather are gradually worsening, and traffic volumes increasing. Some might look at the new risk and decide not to drive, but for those already on the road it is too late.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-extremes-make-nzs-supply-chains-highly-vulnerable-its-time-to-rethink-how-we-grow-and-ship-food-209023">Climate extremes make NZ’s supply chains highly vulnerable – it's time to rethink how we grow and ship food</a>
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<p>Most countries are still managing floods just like this: sometimes building higher levees or installing bigger pipes. But development often occurs incrementally, without the strategic investment needed or the room to safely store excess water volumes in urban areas when failure occurs.</p>
<p>Housing development is needed, but too often current (let alone future) flood risk is not adequately considered. Planning controls, or additional infrastructure costs, are routinely referred to as “red tape” that raises costs. As a result, recovery costs are ongoing and residual risk gradually rises.</p>
<p>Weather-related disasters in 2023, including Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand and wildfires in the northern hemisphere, have led to a new focus on understanding how residual risk is managed. But whether it is even acknowledged or incorporated in planning policy <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jfr3.12785">varies from country to country</a>.</p>
<h2>National strategy missing</h2>
<p>Our research team from the University of Waikato recently undertook a <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12944">survey with flood risk practitioners</a> in New Zealand to shed some light on this.</p>
<p>New Zealand has little in the way of national-level guidance on managing flood risk. Despite this, survey responses suggest flood risk professionals are aware of the issue. They agree residual flood risk is increasing, mainly due to climate change and ongoing development in flood-prone areas currently designated as “protected”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazards-a-warming-climate-and-new-resource-laws-why-nz-needs-geoscientists-more-than-ever-212008">Natural hazards, a warming climate and new resource laws – why NZ needs geoscientists more than ever</a>
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<p>They also agree the current practice of flood risk management needs improving. But there are several barriers, with the lack of a clear national directive on managing flood risk being the most notable in our survey.</p>
<p>Several respondents noted that changing risk management practice is difficult, given the existing institutional framework. This includes the “build more levees” approach to flood planning.</p>
<p>Local governments also vary in their capacity and resources. Many small councils lack quality flood risk information, such as the likely impact of climate change, which is critical for making wise land-use decisions.</p>
<p>As a result, housing and other developments are continuing in risky places. And to keep development costs down, infrastructure is not being systematically upgraded.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/incremental-environmental-change-can-be-as-hazardous-as-a-sudden-shock-managing-these-slow-burning-risks-is-vital-207805">Incremental environmental change can be as hazardous as a sudden shock – managing these ‘slow-burning’ risks is vital</a>
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<h2>Planning for residual risk</h2>
<p>We expect the New Zealand experience reflects similar trends elsewhere. Practitioners are aware of the growing threat of residual risk and would like more power to manage it. But there is a lack of urgency and resources to upgrade infrastructure. And there is political pressure to enable more housing and reduce red tape.</p>
<p>If these patterns persist, not only will the impacts from future floods become more frequent and expensive, but the insurance sector will retreat further from offering flood policies.</p>
<p>This will eventually leave central governments as de facto insurers-of-last-resort for flooding events. And they will be picking up an increasingly big bill, as already evidenced by the US$20.5 billion deficit faced by the United States <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/homesec/R44593.pdf">National Flood Insurance Program</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-sponge-cities-to-cope-with-more-rainfall-neednt-cost-billions-but-nz-has-to-start-now-211181">Creating ‘sponge cities’ to cope with more rainfall needn't cost billions – but NZ has to start now</a>
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<p>Internationally and in New Zealand, attention is shifting to the need to build “sponge cities” or create more “room for water” in flood risk management. But we argue that acknowledging and managing the growing residual risk from climate change is missing from the debate.</p>
<p>A better-informed approach would see stronger guidelines against ill-advised development in flood-prone areas unless the infrastructure investment reduces that residual risk. Development on floodplains can still happen. But land use and investment must account for an uncertain future and lower the overall risk profile, rather than increase it.</p>
<p>The reality of more frequent flooding demands a multi-faceted response that makes cities, towns and rural areas more resilient – and prepared for inevitable infrastructure failure. Residual risk needs to be central to planning if we are to avoid an endless cycle of mopping up, rebuilding and compensating for financial loss.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212454/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Xinyu Fu receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Endeavour Fund and the Toka Tū Ake Earthquake Commission to conduct research on issues related to flood risk management and future land use planning.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain White receives funding from the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. He also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making, and from Toka Tū Ake Natural Hazards Commission to research how to better incorporate risk into future settlement planning.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Bell receives funding from Toka Tū Ake Earthquake Commission, as an advisor to the University of Waikato team to research issues connected to flood risk mapping, management and future land use planning. Rob was also funded by the Ministry for the Environment to revise the 2023 national Coastal Hazards and Climate Change guidance for local government in NZ.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Silvia Serrao-Neumann receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Endeavour Fund and the Toka Tū Ake Earthquake Commission to conduct research on issues related to flood risk management and land use planning.</span></em></p>New or improved flood protection can give a false sense of security – the so-called ‘levee effect’. But climate change is unpredictable, meaning ‘residual risk’ always exists and must be planned for.Xinyu Fu, Senior Lecturer of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoIain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoRob Bell, Teaching Fellow, Environmental Planning Programme, University of WaikatoSilvia Serrao-Neumann, Associate Professor of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.