tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/joe-biden-4046/articlesJoe Biden – The Conversation2024-03-27T12:38:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2261942024-03-27T12:38:28Z2024-03-27T12:38:28ZHow to have the hard conversations about who really won the 2020 presidential election − before Election Day 2024<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584166/original/file-20240325-9980-p8v9yo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C35%2C7951%2C5261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's important to democracy to have difficult discussions across political lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/chat-bubbles-with-mouths-showing-sharp-teeth-royalty-free-image/1399061447">MirageC/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of Americans believe that the <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/after-three-years-and-many-indictments-the-big-lie-that-led-to-the-january-6th-insurrection-is-still-believed-by-most-republicans/">2020 presidential election was stolen</a>. They think Donald Trump won by a landslide in 2020 and lost only because of widespread voter fraud. Some of the people who hold these views are my relatives, neighbors and professional associates. Because I reject these claims, it can be difficult to talk to those who accept them.</p>
<p>Often, we avoid the topic of politics. But as a <a href="https://millercenter.org/experts/robert-strong">political science scholar</a>, I expect that as the 2024 election gets closer, conversations about 2020 will become more common, more important and more unavoidable.</p>
<p>So, what does someone like me, who concludes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think that Trump was the actual winner? Here are a few of the questions I raise in my own conversations about 2020.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rioters climb the walls of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584168/original/file-20240325-28-2snc9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">This is not what democracy looks like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CapitolRiotSeattlePolice/d55c50d30d884d738559a35b01ecf9be/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
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<h2>Polls and pollsters</h2>
<p>I usually begin by asking about polls. Polls and pollsters are often wrong about close elections, and many prominent pollsters tilt toward Democrats. They predicted a Hillary <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/">Clinton victory in 2016</a>.</p>
<p>But even those polls and pollsters would be unlikely to have missed a 2020 landslide for Trump – or Biden. Unless, of course, as was the case, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jan/07/donald-trump/trump-clings-fantasy-landslide-victory-egging-supp/">the landslide did not exist</a>. </p>
<p>Recent political <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/">polling has been less accurate</a> than many people expect. And all polls have margins of error: They provide an imperfect picture of public sentiment in a closely divided nation.</p>
<p>That said, even polls with a sizable margin of error should have been able to find a Trump landslide in 2020 – but they didn’t, because there wasn’t one. The last American presidential landslide, Reagan in 1984, was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/10/31/conflicting-campaign-polls-point-to-one-certainty-some-are-wrong/30636083-2905-4e24-93a2-73ba76a7a587/">clearly seen in preelection polling</a>.</p>
<p>If millions of fraudulent votes were cast in 2020, reputable pollsters would have discovered a discrepancy between their data and official election results. This would have been particularly true for the pollsters trusted by Republicans.</p>
<p>Trump himself has often <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/10/7/21506391/rasmussen-poll-biden-vs-trump-landslide">praised the Rasmussen polling organization</a>. But just before Election Day 2020, Rasmussen reported that Trump could win a narrow victory in the Electoral College <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-him-narrowly-losing-presidency-one-day-before-election-1544099">only if he swept all the toss-up states</a> – a daunting task. Rasmussen found no evidence of a forthcoming Trump landslide and projected that Biden would get 51% of the national popular vote. That’s almost exactly the percentage he received <a href="https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf#page=10">in the official count</a>.</p>
<h2>Where is the congressional investigation of 2020 voter fraud?</h2>
<p>The House Republicans have not convened a special committee to investigate the 2020 election. Such a committee could summon witnesses, hold high-profile hearings and issue a detailed report. It could explain to the American people exactly what happened in the presidential election, how the election was stolen and who was responsible. If the evidence collected justified it, they could make criminal referrals to the Justice Department. <a href="https://january6th-benniethompson.house.gov/">The Democrats did all of these things in connection to the events of Jan. 6, 2021</a>. </p>
<p>What could be more important to the American public than a full and fair account of 2020 voter fraud? Donald Trump calls it <a href="https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1013604/trump-announces-the-crime-of-the-century-a-forthcoming-book-about-the-2020">“one of the greatest crimes in the history of our country</a>.” Yet the Republicans on Capitol Hill have not authorized a major public and professional investigation of those alleged crimes. Perhaps, as former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney claims, most Republican members of Congress know that Trump’s statements about massive voter fraud are false. </p>
<p>It would be hard, even for Congress, to investigate something that did not happen.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney says many Republicans in Congress don’t believe Trump’s lies.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>When the big lie goes to court</h2>
<p>Like Congress, or professional pollsters, the judicial system has ways to expose election fraud. Immediately after the 2020 election, the Trump campaign <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">went to court more than 60 times</a> to challenge voting procedures and results. </p>
<p>They lost in <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">all but one case</a>. </p>
<p>Related lawsuits have also been decided against those who claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. </p>
<p>For instance, Fox News was sued for defamation because of broadcasts <a href="https://casetext.com/case/us-dominion-inc-v-fox-news-network-llc-1">linking Dominion voting machines to allegations of a rigged 2020 election</a>. Fox, a powerful and wealthy corporation, could have taken the case to trial but didn’t. Instead, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/18/1170339114/fox-news-settles-blockbuster-defamation-lawsuit-with-dominion-voting-systems">it paid three-quarters of a billion dollars to settle the case</a>.</p>
<p>In another case, Rudy Giuliani has been ordered to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/rudy-giuliani-georgia-election-workers-defamation-case-cde7186493b3a1bd9ab89bc65f0f5b06">pay $148 million to Georgia election workers he falsely accused of misconduct</a>. More civil suits are pending.</p>
<p>Trump’s claim of a win in 2020 – known by its critics as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/forced-to-choose-between-trumps-big-lie-and-liz-cheney-the-house-gop-chooses-the-lie">“The Big Lie”</a> – has regularly and repeatedly lost in court. If there were any truth to what Trump and his supporters say about the 2020 election, shouldn’t there be lawyers who present effective evidence and judges who give it credence? So far, there are not.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump doesn’t think the U.S. is a democracy.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Democracy in America?</h2>
<p>Hard conversations about election integrity often come around to a more fundamental question: Do we still have democracy in America?</p>
<p>I think we do. Our democracy is fragile and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/11/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state">under greater stress than at any time since the Civil War</a>. But it is still a democracy. The rule of law may be slow, but it prevails. Harassed and threatened election officials do their jobs with courage and integrity. Joe Biden, the official winner of the 2020 election, sits in the White House.</p>
<p>Supporters of Donald Trump are likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0295747">think that the U.S. is not a democracy</a>. In their beliefs about how America works, millions of illegal votes are cast and counted on a regular basis; news is fake; violence is justified to halt fraudulent government proceedings; and it’s OK for a presidential candidate <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/donald-trump-dictator-one-day-reelected/71880010007/">to want to be a dictator</a> – if only for a day.</p>
<p>In a functioning democracy, everyone has constitutionally protected rights to hold and express their political opinions. But I believe we should all be willing to discuss and evaluate the evidence that supports, or fails to support, those opinions.</p>
<p>There is no verified evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020. You can’t find it in the polls. You won’t get it from Congress. Claims of election wrongdoing have failed in the courts. I sometimes ask my friends what I am missing. Maybe what’s really missing is a readiness for the hard political conversations that I believe must be had in the 2024 election season.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert A. Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What does someone like me, who believes that the last presidential election was legitimately won by Joe Biden, say to those who think the 2020 election was stolen?Robert A. Strong, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Washington and Lee University; Senior Fellow, Miller Center, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266532024-03-26T18:10:35Z2024-03-26T18:10:35ZHow will the UN security council’s call for a Gaza ceasefire affect Israeli politics and relations with the US? Expert Q&A<p><em>Washington’s decision to abstain from voting on a UN security council resolution which calls for a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages with Hamas has angered Israel, which has traditionally counted on the US for unwavering support in international forums. We spoke with John Strawson, a Middle East expert at the University of East London, who has been researching and publishing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for several decades.</em></p>
<p><strong>The United Nations security council has passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire and the return of the hostages held by Hamas. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Israel’s military campaign will continue. Does he have the full support of his government in this or is there a risk that any of his more moderate coalition partners will break ranks?</strong></p>
<p>UN security council <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147931">resolution 2728</a> is a testimony to ambiguous drafting. It calls for an immediate ceasefire but only to cover the rest of Ramadan, which is only about two weeks. It also seems to link the ceasefire to the return of “all hostages” but is silent as to whether this is a condition for the ceasefire. </p>
<p>It should also be noted that Hamas is not mentioned nor are Israeli hostages. At the conclusion of the relevant paragraph there is a reference to all who are detained – again without reference to their identity. It’s also important to note that Hamas and other Palestinian sources refer to all Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel as “hostages”. As a result there are many possible interpretations of the obligations the resolution seeks to create. </p>
<p>Netanyahu <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/25/world/middleeast/israel-ceasefire-rafah-netanyahu.html">has denounced</a> the US for not vetoing the resolution. Any responsible Israeli leader would have used the ambiguities to say that Israel was already negotiating such a ceasefire and was waiting on Hamas’s reply to their proposals. But Netanyahu’s stance is about keeping his coalition going with the support of the far-right which will enable him to keep his job. </p>
<p><strong>New Hope party leader Gideon Saar has already quit after Netanyahu refused to appoint him to the war cabinet. Obviously this doesn’t bring down the government, but what does it mean in terms of the power dynamic in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, particularly when it comes to the far-right parties?</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">Gideon Saar</a> is effectively launching his campaign to be prime minister. He has been a long-term opponent of Netanyahu on the right. He stood for the leadership of Likud, Netanyahu’s party, in 2019. Then in 2021 he broke away and sided in the Knesset with the broad anti-Netanyahu coalition that was able to govern for 12 months before being defeated in November 2022.</p>
<p>Saar wanted to be in the war cabinet where the key decisions are being taken. But the far-right minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, insisted that if Saar was appointed he would need to be as well. But Benny Gantz, one of three voting members of emergency war cabinet had made it a condition that no one from the far-right would be allowed to join.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">Gaza conflict: Washington's patience is wearing thin over the lack of leadership from both Israel and Palestine</a>
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<p>Netanyahu is not yet ready to break relations with Gantz whose moderate politics plays well with foreign politicians. Saar knows this but wants to position himself to be the next leader of the right when the Netanyahu era is over. In the medium term it just illustrates how febrile Israeli politics are. </p>
<p><strong>Benny Gantz, who is a member of the war cabinet, has threatened to quit over proposed legislation that would exempt ultra-orthodox Jews from being conscripted into the army. The law would also put the government at loggerheads with Israel’s high court. What are the risks for the legitimacy of Netanyahu’s leadership?</strong></p>
<p>It is quite clear that Benny Gantz is trying to break up to the coalition. The ultra-orthodox parties in the ruling coalition really have one aim, which is to maintain the huge government financing of their communities. This is resented by the majority of Israelis especially given their general exemption from military service. </p>
<p>This is particularly stark when Israel is at war and more than 250 soldiers have been killed in action and thousands injured. Gantz knows that the last thing the Israel Defense Forces needs are thousands of reluctant recruits, but he also knows that it is a question of fairness that appeals to the vast majority of Israelis. Gantz is still <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240308-israel-poll-shows-gantzs-national-unity-party-leading-over-netanyahus-likud/">popular in the polls</a> and undoubtedly sees this issue as a weak spot for Netanyahu’s alliance.</p>
<p>Both the Sephardic and Ashkenazi chief rabbis have said that should the exemption be ended those affected should leave the country. Such statements give Gantz the opportunity of being seen as a patriot and taking the shine off Netanyahu’s nationalist credentials. So Netanyahu faces pressure from the ultra-orthodox, the far right, the more moderate right of Gideon Saar and from Benny Gantz at the centre. But the more these forces circle, the more Netanyahu doubles down on his rhetoric for complete victory over Hamas, seeing the war as his route to political survival. </p>
<p><strong>Netanyahu reacted to the US abstention by cancelling a visit from a high-level Israeli delegation to Washington for talks. But defence minister Yoav Gallant was already in Washington and is reportedly meeting with US officials. How does this affect the Israeli government’s unity?</strong></p>
<p>The Israeli delegation was asked by the Biden administration to discuss in detail the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/israeli-delegation-us-officials-plan-offensive-rafah-gaza-war">plans for the proposed Rafah operation</a> that Netanyahu has been talking about for weeks. The Americans wanted to know how it could be achieved without causing catastrophic civilian causalities among the 1.2 million people – mostly displaced – sheltering there. But instead of sending military experts, the delegation was headed by the minister for strategic affairs <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/07/world/middleeast/netanyahu-dermer-israel-war.html">Ron Dermer</a> (a Netanyahu confidant) and <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/tzachi-hanegbi">Tzachi Henegbi</a>, a former right-wing rabble rouser now serving as national security adviser.</p>
<p>Neither are military experts and Dermer has not even served in the IDF. What they could have told the US military team they were there to brief would be interesting to hear. But these armchair generals will now be staying at home. </p>
<p>Gallant, meanwhile, continues his Washington talks as if nothing has happened. Despite being a member of Likud, Gallant has steered his course especially carefully since March last year when Netanyahu tried but failed to sack him over his opposition to the government’s unpopular judicial reforms, which Gallant said would endanger national security. </p>
<p>Having survived in part due to mass demonstrations in his support, Gallant has occupied a unique position in the cabinet, as someone who stood up to Netanyahu and survived. He is liked in Washington and Netanyahu is probably relieved that he is keeping lines of communication open with the Biden administration. But it’s hard to hide the contrast between Gallant’s meetings and Netanyahu’s pique at Washington’s decision to abstain on the security council vote.</p>
<p><strong>What does this say about the future of US-Israeli relations?</strong> </p>
<p>The US has only really seen Israel as strategic ally since the early 1970s. Until then relations had been more problematic. When Israel declared independence in 1948 a US arms embargo was in force. In the 1948 war it was Soviet arms via Czechoslovakia that gave Israel its military advantage. </p>
<p>In the 1950s and 1960s it was mainly France who supplied Israel with arms – <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-us-discovery-israels-secret-nuclear-project">including nuclear weapons</a>. The 1956 <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/suez">Suez affair</a> – in which Israel attacked Egypt in coordination with Britain and France – was denounced by the US. But after the six-day war in 1967, the US became more engaged and interestingly has always promoted normalisation between Israel and its Arab neighbours. The 1978 <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/camp-david">Camp David Accords</a> when Israel and Egypt recognised each other underlined this. </p>
<p>My reading of this is the US entanglement with Israel since the 1970s has been about promoting a particular Middle East order. So we need to understand Israel-US relations in a regional context. </p>
<p>The Biden administration knows you can’t end a war without a peace plan – and that must mean a Palestinian state alongside Israel. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, began his recent Middle East visit to Saudi Arabia, seeing Riyadh as central to a stable Middle East. Saudi recognition of Israel comes at the price of concrete steps to a Palestinian state. </p>
<p>The longer Netanyahu resists paying that price the more the agony of Gaza will continue. And all the while the US will have to ratchet up its pressure on the Israeli government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226653/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Strawson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>John Strawson, a UK-based researcher on Israeli politics, answers questions about the US decision to abstain from voting on a UN security council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.John Strawson, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255242024-03-21T17:53:21Z2024-03-21T17:53:21ZWhether it’s Trump or Biden as president, U.S. foreign policy endangers the world<p>Many observers of American politics are understandably terrified at the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected president of the United States in November.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/11/9/has-us-democracy-failed-for-good">The U.S.</a> is already showing signs of a <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis">failed democracy</a>. <a href="https://www.citizen.org/news/twelve-years-since-citizens-united-big-money-corruption-keeps-getting-worse/">Its government</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/28/corruption-is-as-american-as-apple-pie">and politics</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/01/us/politics/government-dysfunction-normal.html">are often dysfunctional</a> and plagued <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/28/report-transparency-international-corruption-worst-decade-united-states/">with corruption</a>. </p>
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<p>A Trump victory would raise fears of a new level of decline into <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html">fascist authoritarianism</a>. However, a second Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the U.S. </p>
<h2>Violence part of U.S. foreign policy</h2>
<p>Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. has unleashed enormous violence and instability on the global stage. This is a feature of American foreign policy, regardless of who’s president. </p>
<p>In 2001, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. launched its “war on terror.” It invaded and <a href="https://theconversation.com/by-not-investigating-the-u-s-for-war-crimes-the-international-criminal-court-shows-colonialism-still-thrives-in-international-law-115269">occupied Afghanistan</a>, then illegally invaded and occupied Iraq. </p>
<p>These actions <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/">caused the deaths of 4.6 million people over the next 20 years, destabilized the Middle East and caused massive refugee migrations</a>. </p>
<p>In 2007-2008, <a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-did-the-global-financial-crisis-of-2007-09-happen">the under-regulated U.S. economy caused a global financial crisis</a>. The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2018/10/03/blog-lasting-effects-the-global-economic-recovery-10-years-after-the-crisis">associated political and economic fallout</a> <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/09/the-social-and-political-costs-of-the-financial-crisis-10-years-later">continues to resonate</a>. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.globalvillagespace.com/consequences-of-us-nato-military-intervention-in-libya/">the U.S. and its</a> <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-nato-pushed-us-libya-fiasco">NATO allies intervened in Libya</a>, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/libya-floods-nato/">collapsing that state, destabilizing northern Africa</a> and creating more refugees. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/opinion/nato-summit-vilnius-europe.html">The U.S. tried to</a> <a href="https://harpers.org/archive/2023/06/why-are-we-in-ukraine/">consolidate its dominance in Europe by expanding NATO</a>, despite Russia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine">warning against this for decades</a>. This strategy played a role in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014 and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. </p>
<p>President Joe Biden’s administration <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/">has been accused both of helping to provoke the war</a> in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/">hopes of permanently weakening Russia</a> and <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/why-peace-talks-but-no-peace/">of resisting peace negotiations</a>.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/">Ukraine appears to stand on the verge of defeat</a> and territorial division, and U.S. Congress <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-war/677256/">seems set to abandon it.</a></p>
<h2>Fuelling global tensions</h2>
<p>The U.S. has provoked tensions with China <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/harvard-guru-gives-biden-a-d-for-china-policy/">by reneging on American commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) to refrain from having official relations or an “alliance” with Taiwan</a>. <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/proposals-for-us-action-in-s-china-sea-should-worry-everyone/">The U.S. has also been accused</a> of <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2018/06/20/us-pundits-and-politicians-pushing-for-war-in-the-south-china-sea/">encouraging conflict in the South China Sea</a> as it has <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2023/2/14/david_vine_us_bases_china_philippines">surrounded China with hundreds of military bases.</a> </p>
<p>Israel’s assault on Gaza is partly the culmination of decades of misguided U.S. foreign policy. Unconditional American support of Israel has helped enable <a href="https://www.amnesty.ca/human-rights-news/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/?psafe_param=1&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw7-SvBhB6EiwAwYdCAVW84WyFFiEvbjzsIp5pPDN5CDlYOCBM52mCC6X6HGC6u52iuTDyyxoCM7MQAvD_BwE">the country’s degeneration</a> into what human rights organizations have called <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">apartheid</a>, as the state has built illegal settlements on Palestinian land and violently suppressed Palestinian self-determination. </p>
<p>As Israel is accused <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68550937">of using starvation as a weapon against 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza</a>, half of them children, the U.S. is fully <a href="https://ccrjustice.org/home/press-center/ccr-news/building-case-us-complicity">complicit in the Israeli war crimes</a> and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/south-african-lawyers-preparing-lawsuit-against-us-uk-for-complicity-in-israels-war-crimes-in-gaza/3109201">for facilitating a conflict</a> that is further inflaming a critically important region. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-strikes-against-houthis-risk-igniting-a-powderkeg-in-the-middle-east-221392">Western strikes against Houthis risk igniting a powderkeg in the Middle East</a>
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<p>Israel is of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/israel-strategic-liability">little to no strategic value</a> <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230804-israel-no-longer-serves-us-interest-says-ex-senior-white-house-official/">to the U.S</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/isf.2007.220205">American politicians contend that its overwhelming support for Israel reflects moral and cultural ties,</a> <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/us-ignores-israeli-war-crimes-domestic-politics-ex-official">but it’s mainly</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/politics/aipac-israel-gaza-democrats-republicans.html">driven by domestic politics</a>. </p>
<p>That suggests that for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5929705/us-israel-friends">domestic political reasons</a>, the U.S. has endangered global stability and supported atrocities. </p>
<h2>Biden/Trump foreign policy</h2>
<p>The Biden administration has continued many of the foreign policy initiatives it inherited from Trump. </p>
<p>Biden doubled down on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2022/12/25/biden-escalates-the-economic-war-with-china/?sh=1f1caa1412f3">Trump’s economic</a>, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3253917/no-end-us-trade-war-china-biden-administration-pledges-policy-document">technological and political war against China</a>. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-american-technological-war-against-china-could-backfire-219158">Why the American technological war against China could backfire</a>
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<p>He <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-administration-continues-be-wrong-about-wto">reinforced Trump’s trade protectionism</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/08/wto-flops-usa-shrugs-00145691">left the World Trade Organization hobbled</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/09/1110109088/biden-is-building-on-the-abraham-accords-part-of-trumps-legacy-in-the-middle-eas">He built on Trump’s “Abraham Accords,”</a> an initiative to convince Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel without a resolution to the Palestine question. </p>
<p>The Biden administration’s efforts to push normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/11/analysis-why-did-hamas-attack-now-and-what-is-next">is considered part of Hamas’s motivation to attack Israel on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.</p>
<p>None of this inspires confidence in U.S. “global leadership.”</p>
<p>Biden and Trump share the same goal: <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/americas-plot-for-world-domination/">permanent American global domination</a>. They only differ in how to achieve this. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deconstructing-trumps-foreign-policy/">believes the U.S.</a> can <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/20/key-moments-in-trumps-foreign-policy">use economic and military might</a> <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_2020_the_year_of_economic_coercion_under_trump/">to coerce the world</a> into acquiescing to American desires, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-strong-arm-foreign-policy-tactics-create-tensions-with-both-us-friends-and-foes/2020/01/18/ddb76364-3991-11ea-bb7b-265f4554af6d_story.html">regardless of the costs to everyone else</a> and without the U.S. assuming any obligations to others. </p>
<p>In office, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/20/trump-the-anti-war-president-was-always-a-myth/">Trump tried to present himself as “anti-war.”</a> But his inclination to use of threats and violence reflected established American behaviour.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://jacobin.com/2022/10/biden-national-security-strategy-us-hegemony">follows a more diplomatic strategy</a> that tries to control international institutions and convince key states their interests are best served by accepting and co-operating with American domination. However, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/biden-warns-us-military-may-get-pulled-direct-conflict-russia-1856613">Biden readily resorts to economic and military coercion</a>, too. </p>
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<h2>Reality check?</h2>
<p>The silver lining to a Trump presidency is that it might force U.S. allies to confront reality.</p>
<p>American allies convinced themselves that <a href="https://www.policymagazine.ca/the-biden-doctrine-our-long-international-nightmare-is-over/">the Biden presidency was a return to normalcy</a>, but they’re still accepting and supporting American global violence. They’re also wilfully ignoring the ongoing American political decay that could not be masked by Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020.</p>
<p>Trump is a <a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/trump-symptom-diseased-american-democracy">symptom of American political dysfunction, not a cause</a>. Even if he loses in November, the Republican Party will continue its slide towards fascism and American politics will remain toxic.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/18/1232263785/generations-after-its-heyday-isolationism-is-alive-and-kicking-up-controversy">A second Trump presidency may convince American allies that the U.S. is unreliable and inconsistent</a>. It may undermine the mostly <a href="https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2024/03/14/how-europe-and-australia-can-end-our-slide-into-irrelevance-servility-national-press-club-of-australia-speech-13-march-2024/">western coalition that has dominated and damaged the world so profoundly</a>. </p>
<p>If Trump returns, traditional U.S. allies may recognize that their interests lie in reconsidering their relations with the U.S. </p>
<p>For American neighbours Canada and Mexico, a Trump presidency is only bad news. They’ll <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joly-us-authoritarian-game-plan-1.6939369#:%7E:text=Politics-,Canada%20mulling%20'game%20plan'%20if%20U.S.%20takes%20far%2Dright,after%20next%20year's%20presidential%20elections.">have to somehow protect themselves from creeping U.S. fascism</a>. For the rest of the world, it may herald the start of a dynamic multipolar order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine has contributed to Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East and Jewish Voice for Peace.</span></em></p>A second Donald Trump presidency would not necessarily implement a foreign policy any more destructive than what is normal for the United States.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258672024-03-21T17:28:49Z2024-03-21T17:28:49ZEven presidents need a touch of madness − in March<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582891/original/file-20240319-8644-3673sk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3735%2C2735&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Then-Vice President Joe Biden at the NCAA men's Final Four semifinal between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Syracuse Orange on April 2, 2016, in Houston. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-joe-biden-poses-for-a-picture-with-syracuse-news-photo/518788354?adppopup=true">Streeter Lecka/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why would a president faced with lingering inflation at home and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, among other problems, take time out to participate in the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket">annual sports fan’s ritual of March Madness</a>? </p>
<p>The “madness” began this year on March 17, when a committee appointed by the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2024-03-17/ncaa-tournament-bracket-revealed-east-region">NCAA announced the field</a> of 68 college basketball teams in each of two divisions – one for men and one for women – selected to compete for a national championship. The teams are divided into four brackets and seeded from 1 to 16, from best to worst, according to the judgment of the committee. The last two surviving men’s teams play on April 8 in the championship game, and the women’s surviving teams finish on April 7. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1223099/bracket-march-madness-intention/">Tens of millions</a> of college basketball fans, including the president if he chooses, take part in the ritual of filling out brackets, a task that involves trying to predict the winning teams starting with the first round of games. </p>
<p>It’s nearly impossible for anyone to predict the winner of every game. The chance of filling out a perfect bracket has been estimated to be <a href="https://www.sdsu.edu/news/2024/03/march-madness-a-statisticians-guide-for-beating-1-in-a-quintillion-odds-of-the-perfect-bracket">1 in 147 trillion</a> attempts. </p>
<p>Following in the footsteps of <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4541434-obama-unveils-march-madness-brackets/">former President Barack Obama</a>, President Joe Biden has filled out brackets for the 2024 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. This year, Biden is playing it safe by choosing <a href="https://twitter.com/potus/status/1770512056321548427?s=51&t=5FrDEU6h5JiRyqzLwoB_2Q">the No. 1 seeds in both tournaments to win the national championship</a>: South Carolina in the women’s bracket and UConn in the men’s. </p>
<p>Biden’s predictions are bound to improve from last year. That’s when his top pick to win the men’s tournament, the No. 2-seeded University of Arizona, was upset in the first round <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/3904252-bidens-march-madness-bracket-is-already-busted/">by Princeton University</a>. </p>
<p>Biden may be participating in March Madness because he, like other presidents, enjoys the competitive nature of sports. And sports allow presidents to “cast a positive image of their presidency and speak to audiences they might not be able to reach <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">any other way</a>,” as journalist Chris Cillizza has written. In this case, Biden is taking the opportunity to carry on like a regular fan.</p>
<p>Yet, as my co-author <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_R._Morris">Tom Morris</a> and I observe in our research for a book on the relationship between sports and politics, presidential involvement in sporting events offers both risks and rewards. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a team jersey with the name 'Obama' on it, standing in front of a large group of men in suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582894/original/file-20240319-26-fzpj9f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Barack Obama accepts a team jersey at the White House on May 11, 2009, from the North Carolina Tar Heels, the 2009 NCAA Division I national champions, whom Obama picked to win in his March Madness bracket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/university-of-north-carolina-mens-basketball-head-coach-roy-news-photo/87066338?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A sports fan, not a politician</h2>
<p>Presidents have been participating in sporting events at least since April 14, 1910, when William Howard Taft threw a <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/baseball/photoessay/02.html">ceremonial first pitch</a> at the Washington Senators baseball game on opening day. And presidents routinely invite championship teams to the White House to publicly acknowledge their accomplishments.</p>
<p>But Obama, an avid basketball fan, was the first president to complete an NCAA Tournament bracket. The idea emerged near the end of the 2008 presidential campaign, when ESPN reporter <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">Andy Katz suggested to Obama</a>, “If you win, how about I come to the White House and we do an NCAA Tournament bracket.” </p>
<p>Obama agreed. After winning the 2008 presidential election, he followed through. </p>
<p>On March 18, 2009, Katz interviewed Obama about his selections on ESPN’s show “SportsCenter.” According to Katz, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=3991183">Obama took the job seriously</a>: “President Obama made his picks as a sports fan, not as a politician. He was knowledgeable about the teams and was even up to date on the latest injuries involving the contenders. … It was clear that he enjoyed filling out his bracket like the rest of America.” </p>
<p>Obama’s supporters cheered his participation in March Madness, while some <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2011/03/19/134599376/obama-trash-talked-for-doing-espn-brackets-during-multiple-crises">opponents criticized the move</a> as a frivolous distraction. The president surely must have better things to do; why take the NCAA Tournament so seriously? </p>
<p>But by failing to complete a bracket for the women’s tournament, Obama invited criticism that he was not taking women’s basketball seriously enough. </p>
<p>USA Today columnist <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2009/0327/ncaa-snub-obama-doesnt-pick-womens-basketball-teams">Christine Brennan</a> faulted Obama: “As the father of two athletic daughters, President Obama should know all about the importance of sports for women and girls.” </p>
<p>From that point on, Obama completed brackets for both the men’s and women’s tournaments. He was <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2010/03/17/president-picks-his-favorites-2010-ncaa-basketball-tournament">interviewed</a> about his choices for both tournaments on ESPN.</p>
<p>At least one of Obama’s brackets <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/324156-obama-continues-tradition-of-filling-out-march-madness-brackets/">is in the Smithsonian</a>.</p>
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<h2>Choosing to win</h2>
<p>During the 2012 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney drew a contrast with Obama by choosing not to fill out a bracket. <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/108647-romney-not-plugged-in-to-march-madness/">Romney announced</a>: “I’m not plugged in well enough this year to do that.”</p>
<p>Although Obama defeated Romney in the election, Romney ultimately proved to be a better predictor of NCAA Tournament basketball games. </p>
<p>Acting as a mere citizen three years later, Romney participated in the ESPN Tournament Challenge with what the network called an “<a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/page/instantawesome-RomneyBracket-150407/mitt-romney-march-madness-bracket-was-astoundingly-good">astounding success</a>.” He predicted all of the Final Four teams in the men’s tournament, placing himself in the top 1% of people who filled out the bracket and earning the headline, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/romney-obama-ncaa-championship-bracket-duke-wisconsin-116681">“Romney bracket crushes Obama’s</a>.” </p>
<p>Evaluating Obama’s predictions became a regular part of March Madness. Analysts not only critiqued Obama’s <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/president-obama-is-surprisingly-bad-at-picking-march-madness-brackets-110119/">relatively poor track record</a> in predicting outcomes. They also considered how those choices reflected his effort to connect with people.</p>
<p>Assessing Obama’s record over eight years, Sports Illustrated concluded: “President Obama used basketball as a way to <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2016/03/16/barack-obama-ncaa-tournament-bracket-march-madness">bond with the American people</a> but he has had ups and downs in making his NCAA tournament picks.” </p>
<h2>No March Madness for Trump</h2>
<p>After he left office, Obama the basketball enthusiast continued to fill out NCAA men’s and women’s tournament brackets. Meanwhile, his successor, President Donald Trump, declined ESPN’s invitation to complete what has been referred to as the “presidential bracket.” </p>
<p>Trump might have been too busy, disinterested in basketball or unwilling <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/03/18/field-of-one-what-donald-trumps-decision-not-to-fill-out-a-bracket-says-about-his-media-strategy/">to associate himself with Obama</a>. Nonetheless, Trump left open the possibility of a future engagement with sports. <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/trump-declines-espn-invite-to-fill-out-ncaa-bracket-on-air/">And he did correctly predict the Super Bowl winner in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>White House spokesperson <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/01/08/espn-isnt-expecting-to-interview-trump-during-the-college-football-championship-game/">Hope Hicks announced</a>: “We look forward to working with ESPN on another opportunity in the near future.”</p>
<h2>Enjoying the madness</h2>
<p>Biden has returned to Obama’s practice, though not with the same fervor or enthusiasm. In 2023, Biden submitted his brackets just a few minutes before the <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/march-madness-president-joe-biden-sneaks-in-ncaa-tournament-brackets-loses-champion-arizona-on-day-1-180322281.html">start of the first game</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike Obama, who routinely participated in pickup games and had a basketball court installed <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/chris-cillizza/power-players/9781538720608/?lens=twelve">on the White House grounds</a> so he could practice shooting, Biden is less enamored of basketball. After all, he grew up playing baseball and was a star receiver for <a href="https://www.thedp.com/article/2020/08/joe-biden-penn-athletics-football-archmere-2020-election-delaware">his high school football team</a>.</p>
<p>When it comes to filling out NCAA brackets, presidents may be playing politics – or they may just be taking time to enjoy the madness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Palazzolo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Filling out brackets for the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments allows a president to be just a regular Joe. Including Joe Biden.Daniel Palazzolo, Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262682024-03-21T17:11:46Z2024-03-21T17:11:46ZGaza update: the prospect of mass famine is beginning to change minds in Washington<p>As the casualty count on the Gaza Strip approaches 32,000 people, in itself a terrible and distressing statistic, another number also stood out this week. It <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/19/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-holds-al-jazeera-reporter-for-12-hours?update=2784185">is reported</a> that in the past week, more than 100 aid workers <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-gaza-israeli-forces-target-aid-workers-string-killings-imminent-famine">have been killed</a>. Twenty-three on March 19 as they waited at the Kuwait roundabout in Gaza City to receive an aid convoy, but others in raids which have reportedly focused on aid distribution centres and warehouses, <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240320-israel-is-targeting-anybody-involved-in-organising-and-coordinating-the-arrival-of-aid-into-the-north-of-gaza/">according to the Middle East Monitor</a>.</p>
<p>In a situation such as the one unfolding in Gaza, with millions facing critical shortages of food, fuel and medicines, aid agency staff are precious frontline workers. They perform the vital – and very dangerous – task of coordinating aid distribution to 2 million desperate people. Like medical staff in a conflict situation, they are protected by the Geneva conventions.</p>
<p>As always against the background of a chaotic and politically sensitive conflict, it should be noted that these reports – like the overall death toll reports – originate with the authorities in Gaza and must be treated with due caution. But UNRWA, the United Nations relief agency for Palestinian refugees, reports that 165 of its workers have been killed in the five months of the conflict. </p>
<p>This is complicated by Israel’s claims that UNRWA workers were involved in the vicious October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, leading it to go so far as calling UNRWA an active participant in the conflict on the side of Hamas – although so far it has offered no evidence to support these claims. Despite this, the agency – which has an estimated 13,000 workers in Gaza – has had its funding paused by several countries, including the US and UK.</p>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
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<p>All of which makes for distressing viewing on the nightly news. It’s fair to say that in many western countries – judging by the massive and regular protests calling for a ceasefire and humanitarian intervention in Gaza – the views of significant numbers of people are out of sync with the actions of their political leaders. </p>
<p>Which sets up an interesting dynamic in an election year for the US. Last week, a speech by Chuck Schumer, a senior Democrat who is the US Senate majority leader and a vociferous, longtime supporter of Israel – and, until recently at least, friend of its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – called for Netanyahu to resign and make way for an election, adding:</p>
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<p>Nobody expects Prime Minister Netanyahu to do the things that must be done to break the cycle of violence, to preserve his credibility on the world stage, to work to a two-state solution.</p>
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<p>Schumer’s boss, Joe Biden, commented that he had made “a good speech”, adding that: “I think he expressed a serious concern shared not only by him but by many Americans.”</p>
<p>But, as John Strawson – an expert in Israeli politics at the University of East London – <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">writes here</a>, all indications are that this is highly unlikely. Manoeuvrings inside Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, Strawson believes, have actually shored up the prime minister’s position when compared with his main rival Benny Gantz. </p>
<p>Schumer also called for the Palestinian Authority to make changes at the top to usher in “a new generation of Palestinian leaders who will work towards attaining peace with a Jewish state”. But this looks highly unlikely too, given that the PA president, Mahmoud Abbas, has just appointed a decidedly old-school prime minister: Muhammad Mustafa is a 69-year-old political ally who hardly represents a new generation of leadership.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-washingtons-patience-is-wearing-thin-over-the-lack-of-leadership-from-both-israel-and-palestine-225915">Gaza conflict: Washington's patience is wearing thin over the lack of leadership from both Israel and Palestine</a>
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<p>Schumer’s speech also bears examination for what it tells us about Washington’s attitude towards the Israeli government – at least on the Democrat side. As Dov Waxman, professor of Israel Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles, tells Naomi Schalit, political editor of The Conversation US, Schumer’s speech marks “the culmination of a process that’s been underway for some time, whereby the Democratic Party has increasingly turned against Netanyahu”.</p>
<p>In this <a href="https://theconversation.com/pro-israel-but-anti-netanyahu-democratic-party-leaders-try-to-find-the-middle-ground-226050">illuminating interview</a>, Waxman sets out the nuances in the speech which, he believes, was aimed as much at a domestic audience of Democrat voters as at Israelis, Palestinians or the watching international community, with Schumer deliberately positioning the Democrats as pro-Israel but against the Netanyahu government and what it is doing in Gaza.</p>
<p>Hidden in the speech was a key phrase warning that if this goes on much longer, it will force the Biden administration to “play a more active role in shaping Israeli policy by using our leverage to change the present course”. By this, says Waxman, Schumer means that US military aid to Israel could be on the line. Now that would be a game-changer.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pro-israel-but-anti-netanyahu-democratic-party-leaders-try-to-find-the-middle-ground-226050">Pro-Israel but anti-Netanyahu: Democratic Party leaders try to find the middle ground</a>
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<h2>By sea? By air?</h2>
<p>As you would expect, Biden made Gaza one of the key segments of his recent State of the Union address. With a view to voters on both sides of the spectrum, he apportioned blame carefully, noting that the conflict had begun with the Hamas assault on October 7 but adding that the overwhelming majority of the victims of Israel’s reprisal operation in Gaza have been innocent civilians.</p>
<p>Declaring that “it’s heartbreaking”, Biden announced that he had instructed the US military to build a temporary pier in the Mediterranean to enable the delivery of aid by sea. “No US boots will be on the ground,” he noted, adding that the pier would enable a “massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day”.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘It’s heartbreaking’: Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union address.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But Foteini Stavropoulou of Liverpool John Moores University and Sarah Schiffling of Hanken School of Economics – both experts in aid distribution – believe this will fall far short of the capacity required to meet the urgent needs of the starving population of Gaza. Here, <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-plan-to-build-a-pier-to-get-aid-into-gaza-isnt-enough-here-are-six-issues-needed-for-an-effective-aid-strategy-225369">they outline six steps</a> which could help get the required volumes of humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-plan-to-build-a-pier-to-get-aid-into-gaza-isnt-enough-here-are-six-issues-needed-for-an-effective-aid-strategy-225369">Joe Biden's plan to build a pier to get aid into Gaza isn't enough – here are six issues needed for an effective aid strategy</a>
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<p>There have been airdrops of aid over the past weeks. Stavropoulou and Schiffling believe this is a delivery option of last resort, but for 12 months from 1948, the US and UK maintained an airlift into blockaded west Berlin, feeding more than 2 million people cut off by Soviet forces.</p>
<p>Claudia Milena Adler, an expert in humanitarianism with the University of York, and Abdullah Yusuf, an expert in international relations at the University of Dundee, compare what was achieved during the Berlin airlift with what is required now, and ask whether the west can perform the same miraculous service in Gaza. </p>
<p>They are not optimistic. Feeding Berlin in 1948 took a clear effort of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-if-theres-a-lesson-from-the-berlin-airlift-its-that-political-will-is-required-to-avoid-a-humanitarian-catastrophe-226243">political will</a> and western unity to achieve. It’s far from clear, they write, that the same political will exists today when it comes to Israel and Palestine.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-if-theres-a-lesson-from-the-berlin-airlift-its-that-political-will-is-required-to-avoid-a-humanitarian-catastrophe-226243">Gaza war: if there's a lesson from the Berlin airlift it's that political will is required to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe</a>
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<h2>Ramadan in Rafah</h2>
<p>Back in January, the aforementioned Benny Gantz – a member of Israel’s war cabinet – said that unless all hostages were released, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would commence an assault on the city of Rafah by March 10 – which would coincide with the start of Ramadan. This, as the director of the Middle East Institute’s program on Palestine, Khaled Elgindy, said at the time, “adds a layer of distastefulness and outrage to an already pretty horrendous situation”.</p>
<p>In the event, the assault has not begun. Now we have a situation where almost daily, Biden and other senior world leaders warn Israel not to go into Rafah – where more than a million Palestinian refugees from the rest of the Gaza Strip are huddling and close to starvation. Meanwhile, Israel doubles down on its insistence that it still plans to carry out the assault.</p>
<p>Carlo Aldrovandi, a professor in international peace studies at Trinity College Dublin, <a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-conflict-ramadan-brings-fresh-fears-of-escalation-on-both-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-225367">explains the significance of Ramadan</a>, not only to the 2 million Palestinians trapped in Gaza but the wider Islamic world. And he warns that Islam’s holiest month could see increased violence on the West Bank, where tensions remain high.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-conflict-ramadan-brings-fresh-fears-of-escalation-on-both-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-225367">Israel-Hamas conflict: Ramadan brings fresh fears of escalation on both Gaza Strip and West Bank</a>
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<p><em>Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/gaza-update-159?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Gaza">Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox</a>.</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of our coverage of the conflict in Gaza from the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2235822024-03-20T16:35:50Z2024-03-20T16:35:50ZFriend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals<p>The tendency to move production and trade away from countries considered to be political rivals or national security risks and towards allies, so-called <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0714">“friend-shoring”</a>, is a <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/friendshoring-global-trade-buzzwords/">hot topic</a> among economists. The term popped up during the COVID pandemic, a time of significant disruption to supply chains, and gained further traction when Russia invaded Ukraine.</p>
<p>One of the most high-profile results of a friend-shoring policy is that Canada and Mexico have recently replaced China as America’s largest trading partners by total trade, while Mexico has overtaken China as America’s top importer (see figures below). This followed the introduction of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zhaohui-Wang-22/publication/338085025_Understanding_Trump's_Trade_Policy_with_China_International_Pressures_Meet_Domestic_Politics/links/5fdf5d53299bf140882f7481/Understanding-Trumps-Trade-Policy-with-China-International-Pressures-Meet-Domestic-Politics.pdf">Donald Trump’s trade strategy</a>, which aimed to reduce US dependence on Chinese goods – partly for political reasons and partly because of Trump’s perception of China as a rival power. </p>
<p>Joe Biden has also <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/biden-to-sign-chips-act-china-competition-bill.html">placed restrictions on trade</a> with China in an attempt to strengthen US competitiveness with China and grow the US tech industry.</p>
<p>The US <a href="https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart">raised tariffs</a> on imports from China significantly during the Trump administration. These levels remain high, making the costs of importing goods from China to the US more expensive. </p>
<p>In addition, the International Labor Organization Global Wage <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---travail/documents/publication/wcms_862569.pdf">Report 2022-23</a> shows that China has experienced the highest rate of real wage growth among all G20 countries over the period 2008-22, also pushing up the price of Chinese goods. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/08/30/what-is-friendshoring">Biden administration</a> continues to champion friend-shoring, which has further encouraged companies to shift production from China to Mexico as they weigh up geopolitical risks against differences in the costs of production. </p>
<p>While data on the number of firms relocating production is not available, the latest trade data (see Figures 1 and 2) suggests Mexico has managed to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2ca4da83-f858-4215-88e7-544adf0aa18e">capitalise</a> on the US-China rivalry.</p>
<p>Closer relationships with allies can be created by forming new trade agreements, for example, the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement#:%7E:text=The%20United%20States%2DMexico%2DCanada%20Agreement%20(USMCA)%20entered,farmers%2C%20ranchers%2C%20and%20businesses.">US, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA)</a>, which is more about geopolitics and friend-shoring than lowering tariff barriers as was the case of its predecessor, the <a href="https://www.trade.gov/north-american-free-trade-agreement-nafta">North America Free Trade Agreement (Nafta)</a>. </p>
<p>But the USMCA was also a product of its time. US political will had shifted towards undermining political competitors and setting out anti-China political statements that resonated with voters. </p>
<p>Trump, a <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact">consistent critic of Nafta</a>, had argued that it undermined American jobs and wages, a statement that undoubtedly played well in US industrial states experiencing manufacturing decline. A paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggested that far more US jobs were lost due to <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21906/w21906.pdf">competition with China</a>.</p>
<h2>Doing business with your friends</h2>
<p>Friend-shoring is a new term for something that has been around for a long time. Countries engaged in sanctions, blockades, and friend-shoring during the first and second world wars on a much <a href="https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300270488/the-economic-weapon/">larger scale</a>. </p>
<p>In 1948, the US initiated economic sanctions against the Soviet Union, a 50-year-long strategy that started with export restrictions and was solidified by the Export Control Act of 1949. </p>
<p>These sanctions, intensified after the Battle Act of 1951, were aimed at limiting strategic goods to the Soviet bloc and became a permanent fixture of cold war policy following the escalation of the <a href="https://www.americanforeignrelations.com/E-N/Embargoes-and-Sanctions-Cold-war-sanctions.html">Korean war</a>.</p>
<p>Data analysis shows how trade responds to political factors. For over sixty years, trade economists have made extensive use of <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4037001">the gravity model</a> of trade, which has provided empirical evidence that countries tend to trade more with countries geographically closer to them as well as where there is a common language, common legal system, common exchange rate regime and shared colonial history. </p>
<p>Research also shows how political distance between countries and formal military alliances affects trade. </p>
<p><strong>Value of US imports from top five trading partners in 2010-23:</strong></p>
<p><strong>US trade with countries by value:</strong></p>
<p>Governments can use trade policy to strategically support their own industries, so reducing trade with rivals can be part of a political agenda based on boosting domestic manufacturing (and jobs) rather than relying on imports. The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/">US Chips and Science</a> Act, and in the EU, the <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en">European Chips Act</a>, are examples of policies that can inflict economic pain on adversaries while ensuring domestic production of this key component in high-technology manufacturing. </p>
<p>However, developing an industry takes time. By the time the industry is established, it <a href="https://www.piie.com/publications/piie-briefings/2021/scoring-50-years-us-industrial-policy-1970-2020">may not pay off</a>, either due to falling prices caused by increased supply or an economic slowdown that suppresses demand. </p>
<p>In the case of US chips, it is particularly interesting to note that the existing industry focuses on design and production of high-quality chips. Therefore, the latest policy will see low-cost microchips, the mainstay of the Chinese chip industry, start to be produced in the US and compete with the established US high-end suppliers. </p>
<p>The US has experienced the negative effects of these types of policies before. Just consider the US support for the steel industry, a popular choice among US presidents, including the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e0219409-b863-41fb-bbcb-6be9ad6f0a4e?emailId=c8a49fc1-229a-4246-984b-42598eccb2e6&segmentId=2785c52b-1c00-edaa-29be-7452cf90b5a2">current administration</a>. Under the Trump administration, this saw <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-cascading-out-control">25% tariffs</a> imposed on steel imports, which benefited the US industry but imposed costs on steel users. </p>
<p>Countries such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-special-relationship-australia-safe-from-trump-s-tariffs-for-now-20190603-p51tyr.html">Australia</a> were exempt from this policy, while <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-cascading-out-control">other allies</a>, such as the EU, were hit hard. Industrial policy can reduce dependence on rivals, but it’s not clear that friends always get special treatment.</p>
<p>Other policies can tie in with a friend-shoring agenda. The new generation of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/twec.13213">EU trade agreements</a> deal with issues including labour rights and environmental protection, making it clear that third countries that want to do business with the EU need to meet the same standards. The EU has also been debating new anti-forced labour legislation, so this type of legislation may also start to get more serious consideration in the UK, for instance.</p>
<p>Friend-shoring policies aren’t new, but the slogan is. Self-sufficiency at the national level can inflict short-term pain on adversaries but may hold limited benefits in the medium term. However, there is broader acceptance that businesses need to have the certainty of trading bloc friends. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/regional-trade-agreements/#:%7E:text=Regional%20trade%20agreements%20(RTAs)%20cover,World%20Trade%20Organization%20(WTO).">Half of all trade</a> currently takes place between members of trade blocs, and recent trade data for the US and Mexico (see figures above) suggests that trade blocs may become more important over time as production moves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Canada and Mexico have replaced China as the US’s largest trading partners, due to friend-shoring policies.Karen Jackson, Reader in Economics, University of WestminsterOleksandr Shepotylo, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256152024-03-20T13:59:05Z2024-03-20T13:59:05ZWhat do Russians talk about on social media? Vladimir Putin dominates, while political friends and foes trail in the far distance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581931/original/file-20240314-28-fufsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4585%2C2570&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ubiquitous: Vladimir Putin is the dominant figure on social media platforms in Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/moscow-russia-june-20-2019-president-1430366228">Zhenya Voevodina/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The sudden death of Russian opposition figurehead <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated-224303">Alexei Navalny</a> in a prison camp in Russia’s Arctic circle on February 16 marked a significant moment in Russian public discourse. Navalny’s demise led to a substantial increase in online discussion about someone other than Vladimir Putin. </p>
<p>There was a 14-fold rise in mentions of Navalny on social media as he temporarily outdid Vladimir Putin – something very rare and an indication of the public shock and concern his death had caused.</p>
<p>I wanted to find out to what extent Putin’s presence on Russian social media compared to his dominance in broadcast media. I used a website called BrandAnalytics to collect daily data on the mentions of prominent public figures in Russia from February 15 to 27. </p>
<p>Since the Kremlin banned Meta from operating in Russia at the end of 2022, the social media landscape has been dominated by UAE-based platform <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telegram_(software)">Telegram</a> as well as local Russian platforms including <a href="https://vk.com/?lang=en">VKontakte</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odnoklassniki">Odnoklassniki</a>. Telegram’s surge as the primary digital platform follows the migration of users from platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter that are restricted in Russia.</p>
<p>The graph below – which is generated from that data – clearly illustrates the overwhelming dominance of Vladimir Putin in the social media landscape. This dominance is maintained through a combination of state-controlled media, numerous government officials who frequently post content featuring him, and the assistance of bots designed to amplify mentions of his persona. This ensures his pervasive presence in Russian public discourse, reflecting his extensive influence over the media landscape.</p>
<p><strong>Daily mentions of the top 15 people on Russian social media:“</strong></p>
<p>But if there could be said to be a challenger for attention on Russian social media platforms it would be Alexey Navalny. If you look at the table below, which examines social media mentions in April 2021 – when Navalny returned to Russia after recuperating from Novichok poisoning and was arrested at the airport, tried and imprisoned – you can see that there was a high level of interest. </p>
<p>That interest was sustained for several months as people followed the story of his arrest and trial. The president still dominated social media – but you’d expect that. But, unusually, Putin scored less than double the number of mentions that Navalny achieved. Given the factors that artificially inflate Putin’s numbers (government officials, bots, etc) it shows that Navalny remained a strong presence in people’s minds.</p>
<p><strong>Top five people mentioned on Russian social media, April 2021 and February 2024:</strong></p>
<p>If you dig deeper you can identify four primary groups of personalities that recur in Russia’s top 50. To make life easier, I’ve on the top 15 people being mentioned on social media. It immediately becomes clear that the top people being talked about on Russian social media platforms are world leaders – dominated by Putin, but other popular figures for discussion include Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump. </p>
<p>Below that, but also popular figures for discussion in the framework of the daily news are senior Russian politicians such as former president Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy head of Russia’s national security council, and defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Other popular categories for discussion are historical figures such as the Soviet leaders Josef Stalin and Vladimir Lenin as well as the Russian poet and playwright, Alexander Pushkin. </p>
<p>The next tier of personalities comprises contemporary cultural figures such as the Bulgarian-born Russian pop singer <a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/02/13/russian-singer-who-apologized-after-attending-almost-naked-party-visits-wounded-russian-soldiers-in-annexed-ukrainian-territory">Philipp Kirkorov</a>, and singer songwriter Yaroslav Yuryevich Dronov – better known by his stage name <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/05/top-russian-shaman-blesses-army-fighting-in-ukraine-a82678">Shaman</a>) – both of whom are known for their support of Russia’s war on Ukraine.</p>
<h2>Politics to the fore</h2>
<p>While the primary group, led by Putin himself, features regular spikes for the likes of Biden, Trump and Macron, newsworthy Ukrainians including the president, Volodymyr Zelensky and the mayor of Kyiv, former boxer Vitali Klitschko, also feature regularly. </p>
<p>In the context of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky and Biden are often framed by users to support a narrative of external threat. This also helps legitimise Putin’s regime as he is presented as the person protecting Russians from the threats presented by these figures. </p>
<p>Biden’s meeting with Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, on February 22 – days after her husband’s death – also supported this notion in that many people posting saw this as proof that the west was ganging up with the regime’s enemies.</p>
<p>Among Russian politicians in the top-15 mentions, only Medvedev and Shoigu tend to get a look in. Their mentions tend to spike when they say something newsworthy – for example Medvedev’s speech on February 22 when he said Russia would <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russia-signals-it-could-try-to-seize-kyiv-again-at-some-point.html">push to occupy large chunks of Ukraine</a> and possibly even Kyiv. Shoigu’s name spiked around the time he was getting credit for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-president-putin-congratulates-servicemen-capture-ukraines-avdiivka-2024-02-17/">Russia’s capture</a> of the key Ukrainian town of Avdiivka.</p>
<p>But even so, these figures achieve at most 8,000 to 9,000 mentions – 23 times fewer than the sorts of numbers achieved by Putin. It highlights the lack of visible political alternatives to Putin’s leadership – or even an accepted succession – in the eyes of the Russian people.</p>
<h2>An eye on history</h2>
<p>The regular presence of key figures from Russian history – Lenin, Stalin but also the bogeyman of the second world war, Adolf Hitler – is suggestive of Russia’s complex relationship with its past. Sentiments of nostalgia, national pride and critical reflection are intertwined and influence current political discourse.</p>
<p>Regular reminders of Hitler and the Nazis plays into one of the favourite themes of Putin’s speeches, which is that Nazism once again threatens the peace-loving people of Russia, particularly from Ukraine, whose leadership the Russian president regularly condemns as a <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-putin-urges-ukraine-military-to-overthrow-countrys-leaders-12551317">"gang of Nazis”</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Daily mentions of top 13 people on Russian social media not including Putin and Navalny:</strong></p>
<p>It is, of course, very difficult to separate regular social media discussion from Kremlin-sponsored content. But even so, if social media mentions are any indication of political sentiment in Russia, it’s not hard to see how Putin has just manipulated his way to a fifth term of office. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-we-expect-from-six-more-years-of-vladimir-putin-an-increasingly-weak-and-dysfunctional-russia-224259">What can we expect from six more years of Vladimir Putin? An increasingly weak and dysfunctional Russia</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olga Logunova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Putin and his cronies, as well as Biden and an array of Kremlin foes and the odd pop singer make up most discussion on Russia’s social media sites.Olga Logunova, Research Associate, King’s Russia Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256192024-03-20T12:28:41Z2024-03-20T12:28:41ZBiden cannot easily make Roe v. Wade federal law, but he could still make it easier to get an abortion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582808/original/file-20240319-20-n2gu76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=419%2C62%2C4759%2C3385&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A protester marks the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision anniversary outside the Supreme Court building on June 23, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mapi.associatedpress.com/v2/items/39d8d89cb379472ea647b7756c313426/preview/AP23175098262311.jpg?wm=api&tag=app_id=1,user_id=904438,org_id=101781">Associated Press/Nathan Howard</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden promised during his State of the Union address on March 7, 2024, that he would make the right to get an abortion a federal law. </p>
<p>“If you, the American people, send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you I will restore Roe v. Wade as the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/08/remarks-by-president-biden-in-state-of-the-union-address-3/">law of the land again</a>,” Biden said. </p>
<p>If Biden meant simply that he would sign a bill enshrining the right to an abortion, then he can keep his promise. But, as he noted, such a bill is unlikely to be enacted by this current Congress, <a href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown">in which the House majority is Republican</a>. Moreover, if Biden expected such a law to be upheld by this Supreme Court, or even a different set of justices, he could be seriously disappointed.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there is much that Biden’s administration and Congress can do to offset the impact of the Supreme Court’s 2022 <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization</a> ruling, which removed federal constitutional protection for the right to get an abortion and sent the regulation of abortion back to the states. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.virginia.edu/faculty/profile/nrc8g/2915359">As experts</a> on <a href="https://www.law.gwu.edu/alan-b-morrison">constitutional law</a> and <a href="https://www.law.gwu.edu/sonia-m-suter">reproductive health and justice</a>, we are sorting out just what the federal government can do to protect access to abortion.</p>
<p>Most Americans think of the federal government and the president as capable of doing anything that a majority of Congress thinks is appropriate. But that is not true. </p>
<p>The president has various powers under the Constitution, including the authority to issue <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/executive-orders-101-what-are-they-and-how-do-presidents-use-them">executive orders</a>. </p>
<p>That’s what <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/07/08/executive-order-on-protecting-access-to-reproductive-healthcare-services/">Biden did</a> shortly after the Dobbs decision when he issued an executive order that called on different government officials and agencies to promote access to reproductive care, including abortion. </p>
<p>Biden can also have government agencies craft rules that protect abortion rights. The Department of Health and Human Services, for example, has proposed <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/04/12/hhs-proposes-measures-bolster-patient-provider-confidentiality-around-reproductive-health-care.html#:%7E:text=Today%2C%20the%20U.S.%20Department%20of,protected%20health%20information%20(PHI)%20to">a rule to increase privacy protections</a> for reproductive health information, including abortion information. </p>
<p>But Biden has only limited authority to do this: These efforts could be undone by <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/executive-orders-101-what-are-they-and-how-do-presidents-use-them">Congress overriding</a> executive orders – or his successors reversing them – and courts invalidating agency decisions. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden is seen standing at a podium, in front of a large American flag and several people around him, including Vice President Kamala Harris" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582806/original/file-20240319-26-k3xw86.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks during the State of the Union address on March 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mapi.associatedpress.com/v2/items/8a914f2c68444fefb2f27f6cfa4ab597/preview/AP24068158996875.jpg?wm=api&tag=app_id=1,user_id=904438,org_id=101781">Associated Press/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
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<h2>Congress’ hands are partially tied</h2>
<p>Biden specifically said in February 2024 that he needs a Congress that will help him support a “woman’s right to choose.”</p>
<p>Two of us have written <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/01/congress-roe-law-abortion-alternative.html">about how Congress</a> does not have the authority to override a state’s decision to make abortions unlawful in most circumstances – although we <a href="https://twitter.com/jdmortenson/status/1521580604323737600">recognize that some</a> observers and experts would <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10787">question this conclusion</a>.</p>
<p>Congress has the power to pass laws, but only on a limited list of subjects. While the understanding of Congress’ power has expanded over time, there are still very real limits. </p>
<p>Congress is able to regulate commerce between states, but the Supreme Court has determined that its powers only reach activities that are <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11971">economic in nature</a>. So, the court ruled in 1994 that the federal government could not ban the possession of guns in a “<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1994/93-1260">school zone</a>,” since there was no direct economic element involved. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two white boxes say the words 'Mifepristone tablets' and are on a black table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582919/original/file-20240319-30-7pp40o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Packages of Mifepristone tablets are displayed in April 2023 at the family planning clinic in Rockville, Md.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-packages-of-mifepristone-tablets-news-photo/1481950657?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Other options for protecting abortion rights</h2>
<p>The president and the federal government have other ways to make it easier and more affordable to get an abortion. Some of these methods might even be effective in states where there are partial or full bans.</p>
<p>First, Congress could amend existing federal laws to provide economic assistance for abortion. For example, it could repeal the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12167#:%7E:text=The%20Hyde%20Amendment%2C%20according%20to,are%20not%20obligated%20to%20cover.">Hyde Amendment</a>, which is an annual restriction passed in 1976 that prohibits federal money from being used to fund abortions, except when necessary to save the life of a pregnant person or when a pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. </p>
<p>Biden promised to remove the Hyde Amendment in his 2020 campaign but has been unable to do so because of lack of congressional support. But eliminating the Hyde Amendment would have minimal impact in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html">states with abortion bans</a>. </p>
<p>Second, some states with abortion bans, like Idaho and Alabama, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/abortion-texas-idaho-alabama-state-lines-trafficking-d314933f3f7db93858561a0c6ad0b188">are threatening to prosecute women</a> who travel to another state to get an abortion. Congress could enact legislation that protects the right to interstate travel for an abortion. Congress could also make it a federal offense for anyone, including state prosecutors, to interfere with that right. </p>
<p>Justice Brett Kavanaugh, <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">in his concurring opinion in Dobbs</a>, asserted that if states criminalized interstate travel for people to get an abortion, those laws would fail “based on the constitutional right to interstate travel.” </p>
<p>Since Dobbs, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/idaho-abortion-minors-criminalization-b8fb4b6feb9b520d63f75432a1219588">Idaho has passed a law</a> making it a felony for adults who are not the parent of a pregnant minor to help that minor cross state lines for an abortion. A <a href="https://apnews.com/article/idaho-abortion-trafficking-travel-ban-270a403d7b4a5e99e566433556614728">district court has temporarily stayed</a> this law as unconstitutional. In addition, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/02/09/texas-abortion-transgender-care-outside-state-borders/#:%7E:text=In%201974%2C%20just%20after%20Roe,they%20travel%20to%20that%20State.%E2%80%9D">four counties and a few cities in Texas</a> have passed so-called “abortion trafficking laws,” which allow individuals to sue people who travel to get abortions out of state and those who help them.</p>
<p>Third, the Food and Drug Administration has approved, and in 2016 and 2021 expanded, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/medication-abortion-could-get-harder-to-obtain-or-easier-theres-a-new-wave-of-post-dobbs-lawsuits-on-abortion-pills-198978">availability of mifepristone</a>, one of the two drugs used for medication abortions. The Supreme Court is <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/12/justices-will-review-lower-court-ruling-on-access-to-abortion-pill/">considering a challenge</a> to some of the FDA’s rules about access to mifepristone and will hear <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/food-and-drug-administration-v-alliance-for-hippocratic-medicine-2/">oral arguments in that case on March 26, 2024</a>. </p>
<p>But even if the FDA prevails, an anti-abortion president could replace the head of this federal agency. The FDA might then rescind the current rules that have <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation">expanded access</a> to mifepristone, including allowing the pill to be used later in pregnancy. </p>
<p>To prevent that from happening, Biden could ask <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12269">Congress to pass a law</a> that would guarantee the same kind of access to mifepristone that the FDA currently allows. </p>
<p>Congress could also ensure that <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-obscure-1800s-law-is-shaping-up-to-be-the-center-of-the-next-abortion-battle-legal-scholars-explain-whats-behind-the-victorian-era-comstock-act-204728">mailing abortion pills is legal</a>. It could do so by repealing a Victorian law called the Comstock Act, which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/08/us/court-decision-invalidating-approval-of-mifepristone.html">some judges</a> have interpreted as prohibiting the mailing of abortion pills, and directly declaring that such acts are legal. </p>
<p>The Department of Justice issued an <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-obscure-1800s-law-is-shaping-up-to-be-the-center-of-the-next-abortion-battle-legal-scholars-explain-whats-behind-the-victorian-era-comstock-act-204728">opinion in 2022</a> that the Comstock Act does not override the FDA rule allowing mifepristone to be delivered by mail. But legislation would make it impossible for a future president to reverse that opinion alone, or reverse that decision without congressional approval. </p>
<h2>Biden’s actions could still matter</h2>
<p>Biden’s attempt to explicitly codify Roe would probably not succeed. </p>
<p>But Biden can recommend that Congress undertake many other legal reforms that are not constitutionally barred, and he could also take some limited actions based on his own authority. These could remove some obstacles to getting an abortion.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While both Congress and the president have extensive legal powers, they cannot easily change the law to protect abortions under federal law.Naomi Cahn, Professor of Law, University of VirginiaAlan Morrison, Professor of public interest and public service law, George Washington UniversitySonia Suter, Professor of law, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262022024-03-19T20:42:27Z2024-03-19T20:42:27ZTexas immigration law in legal limbo, with intensifying fight between Texas and the US government over securing the Mexico border<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582914/original/file-20240319-18-3mjl2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=502%2C0%2C5479%2C3970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Texas National Guard soldier watches over a group of migrants who crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Dec. 18, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/texas-national-guard-soldier-watches-over-a-group-of-more-news-photo/1865364688?adppopup=true">John Moore/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Supreme Court <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4542285-supreme-court-texas-law-state-police-to-arrest-migrants/">issued an opinion on March 19, 2024, that Texas can</a> – at least for now – have <a href="https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2023-12-18/gov-abbott-signs-bill-that-makes-unauthorized-entry-a-state-crime">state authorities</a> <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/02/15/texas-immigration-law-sb4-border-court-hearing/">deport undocumented migrants</a>, which has traditionally been the federal government’s responsibility. </p>
<p>Three liberal judges dissented from the opinion that temporarily backed Texas’ controversial new law, known as Senate Bill 4. </p>
<p>“That law upends the federal-state balance of power that has existed for over a century, in which the national government has had exclusive authority over entry and removal of noncitizens,” Supreme Court justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote in their dissent.</p>
<p>The Biden administration had tried to block Texas’ enforcement of SB 4, maintaining that the state law is “flatly inconsistent with federal law,” <a href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4540053-supreme-court-pause-texas-law-migrants/">according to a letter</a> U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote to the Supreme Court justices. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court’s decision <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/us/supreme-court-texas-immigration.html">tossed the question of SB 4</a> to an appeals court for a ruling. With this 6-3 ruling, the justices also foreshadowed how they could ultimately rule on SB 4 if a ruling by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals is itself appealed to the Supreme Court in the near future. Late on March 19, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-wont-halt-texas-law-illegal-border-crossings-2024-03-19/">the 5th Circuit barred enforcement</a> of the law until it heard arguments in the case.</p>
<p>This decision follows shortly after a failed Senate proposal to tighten border security and make it tougher for people to get asylum in the U.S. It also coincides with Americans’ rising <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/27/immigration-americans-top-problem-us-poll-election">concern about immigration</a>.</p>
<p>Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has been battling with the Biden administration since 2021 over the state’s ability to secure its border with Mexico. Under Abbott’s leadership, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/republicans-governors-national-guard-and-the-texas-border-what-to-know-/7467727.html">Texas has sent Texas National Guard</a> troops and state troopers to its 1,254-mile-long border with Mexico. Texas is the only border state that has built its own wall, partially dividing itself from Mexico. Texas has also constructed <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/02/09/news/texas-on-track-to-build-more-border-wall-in-state-than-trump-gov-abbotts-says/">more than 100 miles</a> of other barriers along the border.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/mark-p-jones">am a scholar</a> of Texas politics and government at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Texas’ attempts to control its border with Mexico and intervene on immigration issues – historically both the responsibility of the federal government – derive in part from the fact that many Texans believe that their Lone Star State is unique. </p>
<p>Texas, for starters, is the largest U.S. state among the lower 48, geographically speaking, and the second-most populous after California. It has a distinct state culture and the history of being an independent republic. </p>
<p>Today, Texas is the most powerful and influential red state, pushing back against the Biden administration on many policy issues. It is also home to a small but growing political movement advocating for Texas to secede from the U.S. and become an independent country.</p>
<p>There is a great deal of truth to the popular saying that everything is bigger in Texas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man is seen from the side, holding both an American flag and a Texas flag, which is red and blue with one white star." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578708/original/file-20240228-28-ctnbfw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protest Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s immigration and border policies in Eagle Pass, Texas, in February 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/counter-protesters-wave-flags-across-the-street-from-local-news-photo/1978653675?adppopup=true">Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Border security battles</h2>
<p>Over the past several months, Texas has become increasingly enmeshed in a series of skirmishes with the Biden administration over border security and immigration. Abbott, bolstered by <a href="https://uh.edu/hobby/txprimary2024/">Republican voters</a> and the unanimous support of Texas Republicans who dominate the state Legislature, has made Texas more involved in day-to-day border security and immigration enforcement than any state in recent history. </p>
<p>In December 2023, Abbott signed SB 4, which made it a state crime to cross the border illegally and also gives Texas judges the power to deport undocumented migrants. SB 4 will now be implemented, at least until the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals reaches a decision in April.</p>
<p>Abbott’s border security interventions are funded by a 2021 state initiative called <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/operationlonestar">Operation Lone Star</a>. During the program’s first two years, Texas spent <a href="https://www.governing.com/now/2-years-and-4b-later-what-we-know-about-operation-lone-star">US$4.4 billion</a> on a multifaceted strategy that includes, for example, sending Texas <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-expands-border-security-operations-in-eagle-pass#:%7E:text=The%20Texas%20Military%20Department%20acquired,created%20by%20the%20Biden%20Administration.">National Guard troops</a> to the border. In some cases, these National Guard <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4416126-texas-us-legal-standoff-eagle-pass-border/">troops have blocked U.S. Border Patrol agents</a> from patrolling the border. </p>
<p>Now, Texas is spending <a href="https://everytexan.org/2023/10/27/third-special-spending-updated-spending-limits-mean-more-options-for-lawmakers/">$5.1 billion</a> on trying to patrol the border from 2023 through 2025. </p>
<p>This doesn’t include the additional $1.5 billion Texas has allocated for expansion of its <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/border-wall-deportation-bills-18480062.php">border wall</a> over the next few years. </p>
<p>Since 2022, Texas has sent more than 100,000 immigrants who arrived in Texas to <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/texas-transports-over-100000-migrants-to-sanctuary-cities">liberal cities such as New York and Chicago</a>. </p>
<p>And in 2023, Texas constructed a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/texas-buoys-border-immigration-12bc8abddef1c9384b25222b92d0840b">buoy barrier in the middle of the Rio Grande</a>, although a federal appeals court ruled in December that Texas must <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/politics/federal-appeals-court-orders-texas-to-remove-controversial-border-buoys-from-rio-grande/index.html">remove those barriers</a> from the river. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/biden-lawsuit-border-law-18588009.php">challenged</a> virtually all of these actions in court.</p>
<p>The federal government argues that Texas’ border and immigration activity is unconstitutional, since only the federal government can enforce immigration law. The <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4416126-texas-us-legal-standoff-eagle-pass-border/">federal government maintains</a> that the new Texas immigration law that allows state authorities to deport migrants also would interfere with the federal asylum process. </p>
<p>In response, Texas says that its border and immigration work is legal, in part because the federal government cannot adequately secure the border. Abbott and other Republicans characterize migrants crossing into Texas as an “invasion,” which they say gives Texas the right to defend itself, as <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-issues-statement-on-texas-constitutional-right-to-self-defense">they say the U.S. Constitution allows</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white man in a white shirt sits in a. wheelchair and shakes the hand of a soldier who wears a camo uniform, in a row of other people in camp." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578723/original/file-20240228-24-kgno9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tours the U.S.-Mexico border in Eagle Pass in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/texas-governor-greg-abbott-tours-the-us-mexico-border-at-news-photo/1240862283?adppopup=true">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s unique about Texas</h2>
<p>Understanding Texas’ particular history and Texans’ sense of pride for their state helps to better understand the context behind this current conflict. </p>
<p>In Texas, you can’t travel far without seeing the Texas flag fluttering outside of houses and business storefronts. It is quite common to see people carrying Texas flag-themed Koozies, or wearing Texas flag shirts and hats. </p>
<p>Texas is one of the only U.S. states that went directly from being an independent republic – from 1836 to 1845 – to getting statehood. More than <a href="https://www.tshaonline.org/texas-day-by-day/entry/220">nine out of 10 Texans</a> voted for Texas to become part of the U.S. in 1845. </p>
<p>Texas has also been led continuously by a Republican governor since 1992, when George W. Bush was first elected. No Democrat has won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. </p>
<p>Today, Texas’ executive branch, led by Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton, is the country’s most powerful and vocal opponent of the Biden administration. </p>
<h2>A push to secede</h2>
<p>While the Texas state government is challenging the federal government’s immigration and border powers, there has also been a <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/15/texas-secession-texit/">rise in support for</a> a political group called the <a href="https://tnm.me/">Texas Nationalist Movement</a>, which since 2005 has been advocating for Texas to secede from the U.S.</p>
<p>Texas’ Republican political leaders have not embraced this secession movement, often called “TEXIT.” Recently, Matt Rinaldi, the ultra-conservative chair of the Texas Republican Party, kept a Texas secession proposition <a href="https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2023-12-28/texas-gop-rejects-ballot-question-asking-if-state-should-secede">off the Republican primary ballot</a>. </p>
<p>Abbott and other Texas Republican politicians agree with former conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who <a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2010/02/scalia-no-to-secession-025119">wrote in a letter in 2006,</a> “If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.”</p>
<p>But these same Republicans still want Texas to have greater state autonomy from the federal government. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The words 'Greetings from Texas' are seen on a colorful illustration, with a large red star, blue bulls and smaller images of fruit and flowers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578703/original/file-20240228-22-c5eetx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A vintage postcard from the 1950s offers greetings from Texas, often known as the Lone Star State.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vintage-illustration-of-greetings-from-texas-the-lone-star-news-photo/583785842?adppopup=true">Found Image Holdings/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Texas pride</h2>
<p>Abbott and other Texas Republicans continue to assert their right to secure the border and deport undocumented immigrants because they say the federal government is failing to do either effectively. </p>
<p>In addition, Republicans continue to use immigration and border security as a top issue to rally Republican and independent voters heading into the 2024 election. </p>
<p>And, while TEXIT is not going to happen, Texas Republicans will continue to vigorously promote Texas autonomy, appealing to their voters’ Texas pride. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/military-drones-are-swarming-the-skies-of-ukraine-and-other-conflict-hot-spots-and-anything-goes-when-it-comes-to-international-law-205898">article originally published on Feb. 29, 2024</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark P Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court announced that Texas can have state authorities arrest and deport undocumented migrants. A lower court has temporarily blocked the law.Mark P Jones, Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies & Baker Institute Political Science Fellow, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215672024-03-19T12:27:35Z2024-03-19T12:27:35ZUS democracy’s unaddressed flaws undermine Biden’s stand as democracy’s defender − but Trump keeps favoring political violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581766/original/file-20240313-18-8p9hen.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=297%2C152%2C4186%2C3446&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy in the U.S. has historically not been available to all.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/waving-flag-united-states-on-a-dark-wall-royalty-free-illustration/513437560?phrase=democracy+united+states&adppopup=true">Panacea Doll/iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden argues that “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/us/politics/biden-speech-trump-jan-6.html">democracy is on the ballot</a>” in the 2024 election. </p>
<p>We believe there are potential threats to U.S. democracy posed by the choices voters make in this election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available, and any discussion of the current threats needs to happen against that background. </p>
<p>One of us is a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xdia5UoAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist who focuses on civic engagement</a>; the other is a <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/about/leadership/dayna-l-cunningham-dean">former voting rights lawyer</a>. At Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life, we both lead nonpartisan efforts to educate college students and other people about their roles in democracy. </p>
<p>For us, Biden’s talk of democracy is a useful starting point for a broader conversation about U.S. democracy and the 2024 election. </p>
<h2>The ‘sacred cause’</h2>
<p>On Jan. 5, 2024, the president delivered a speech in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania, titled “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">Defending the Sacred Cause of American Democracy</a>.” </p>
<p>As a candidate for reelection at the early stages of a political campaign, the president argued that he and his fellow Democratic candidates are in favor of democracy. Former President Donald Trump and his supporters in the U.S. Congress, said Biden, are against it.</p>
<p>In this speech and other statements, Biden makes the following case: Trump supported or even incited the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, and he refuses to <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/biden-jan-6-valley-forge-speech-2024-election-pennsylvania/">denounce political violence</a>. Trump floats ideas for his second presidential term that include <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-insurrection-act-2024-election-03858b6291e4721991b5a18c2dfb3c36">invoking the Insurrection Act</a>, which authorizes the president to deploy the military inside the United States. </p>
<p>In contrast, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris argue that they respect the Constitution, recognize their limited power and limited importance as leaders within a constitutional order and support freedom of speech. They maintain, in Biden’s words, that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/05/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-third-anniversary-of-the-january-6th-attack-and-defending-the-sacred-cause-of-american-democracy-blue-bell-pa/">political violence is never, ever acceptable</a> in the United States.”</p>
<p>The basic facts in Biden’s speech appear accurate: Trump’s own statements support some of Biden’s claims. </p>
<p>If elected again, Trump is reportedly considering deploying the Insurrection Act <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">against civilian protests</a>. He has expressed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/11/12/donald-trump-comments-xi-jinping-kim-jong-un-new-hampshire-rally-se-cupp-acostanr-vpx.cnn">open admiration for foreign authoritarian leaders</a>, most recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-watched-hungarys-democracy-dissolve-into-authoritarianism-as-a-member-of-parliament-and-i-see-troubling-parallels-in-trumpism-and-its-appeal-to-workers-224930">Hungary’s Viktor Orban</a>. He encouraged <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-guard-vote-election-2024-flynn-39d41fe4f7229d4ab7e1956efc428e10">his supporters to “guard the vote” and to “watch those votes” in certain cities</a>, which some interpret as threatening and potentially intimidating to election workers. </p>
<p>Trump has threatened to prosecute his political opponents, claiming in October 2023 that since he was being prosecuted during the Biden administration, that provided justification for him to do the same.</p>
<p>“This is third-world-country stuff, ‘<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/">arrest your opponent</a>,’” Trump said during a New Hampshire campaign visit. “And that means I can do that, too.”</p>
<h2>Democracy vs. security</h2>
<p>Biden’s own record, however, undermines some of his claims to be fully committed to democracy. </p>
<p>The Biden-Harris administration <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/3924376-double-standard-will-biden-truly-champion-human-rights/">has been accused</a> by human rights advocates and <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/in-the-news/senators-warn-biden-that-a-defense-pact-with-authoritarian-saudi-arabia-in-exchange-for-normalizing-ties-with-israel-hurts-american-interests">even Democratic senators</a> of a double standard: championing democracy while maintaining close ties with authoritarian leaders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-repressive-saudi-arabia-remains-a-us-ally-156281">including the Saudis</a>. </p>
<p>At the very least, Biden has continued a historic pattern of U.S. engagement across the globe that <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/13/examining-u.s.-relations-with-authoritarian-countries-pub-91231">prioritizes security over human rights</a> and liberal democracy. His administration is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html">widely criticized</a> for its support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza and its disastrous humanitarian consequences.</p>
<p>At home, despite a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/20/upshot/biden-budget-before-after-animation.html">major expansion of the government’s role</a> in the economy, the Biden administration <a href="https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/new-goals-old-tools-broadening-public-participation-regulatory-process-biden-administration">has not done anything significant</a> to make federal policymaking more democratic or participatory.</p>
<h2>Longer trends</h2>
<p>It’s helpful to step back from the daily campaign and its heightened rhetoric and consider how Biden’s assertion holds up in light of general research and evidence about democracy in the U.S. That analysis reveals a more complex picture of threats to democracy, some of which are specific to the upcoming election. Others have existed for some time.</p>
<p>In their 2020 book “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250244420/fourthreats%22%22">Four Threats: The Recurring Crises of American Democracy</a>,” political scientists Suzanne Mettler and Robert C. Lieberman argue that democracies in general suffer when any of four trends occur: intense partisan polarization, efforts to exclude some people from the electorate, economic inequality and unilateral exercises of power by the executive branch.</p>
<p>Mettler and Lieberman show that each of these trends has been rising in the U.S. for several decades. Applying their framework, we’d note that both Biden and Trump used a <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-like-trump-sidesteps-congress-to-get-things-done-218010">comparable number of executive orders</a> – 127 and 137, respectively – in their first three years to bypass a reluctant Congress and enact policies unilaterally. The Biden administration has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/us/politics/student-loan-debt-supreme-court-executive-power.html">credibly accused of stretching executive power</a> in areas such as student loan forgiveness.</p>
<p>These long-term trends mean that neither Trump nor Biden is mainly responsible for causing them. Biden criticized all four of these threats in his Jan. 5 speech, however, whereas Trump often <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3941462-trump-wishes-happy-easter-to-pathetic-rinos-and-radical-left-democrats/">endorses political polarization</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/us/politics/trump-plans-2025.html">limitless executive power</a> and has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/11/24/938187233/trump-push-to-invalidate-votes-in-heavily-black-cities-alarms-civil-rights-group">challenged the validity of votes</a> cast in urban and suburban areas with significant minority populations. This difference lends support to Biden’s argument.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of angry people in front of a large white, domed building, with dark clouds above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582041/original/file-20240314-18-g1h88t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C., a day that may have signaled the beginning of an era of political violence in the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-trump-protesters-including-proud-boys-leader-joe-biggs-news-photo/1230457865?adppopup=true">Jon Cherry/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Violence as a threat to democracy</h2>
<p>Notable in Biden’s campaign rhetoric about democracy is his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jan/05/donald-trump-election-warning-nikki-haley-joe-biden-latest-news?page=with%3Ablock-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e#block-65987be28f08d8e96baf827e">alarm about political violence</a>. In any democracy, violence is a threat because, among other things, it intimidates people and makes participation dangerous. In the U.S., political violence has always been associated with attempts to deny democratic rights. It is <a href="https://www.amacad.org/publication/story-violence-america">often racialized</a> and targeted at the most vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>By its very nature, the system of slavery required extreme violence, political repression and the denial of democratic rights to enslaved black people. Though rarely recognized as such in history books, it could be characterized as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479803729.003.0010">racially targeted police state</a> coexisting within a liberal democracy for whites only.</p>
<p>Governance under slavery included organized vigilante violence, repression of dissent, violent clashes and rebellions, harsh suppression, broad prosecution of dissidents, and systematic passage of restrictive laws or renewed enforcement of existing measures when resistance emerged.</p>
<p>Desmond S. King and Rogers M. Smith in “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691142630/still-a-house-divided">Still a House Divided</a>” catalog some of these patterns. Even after slavery and the post-Civil War period known as Reconstruction, <a href="https://eji.org/reports/reconstruction-in-america-overview/">political violence</a> – frequently in response to Black political mobilization or the exercise of basic rights – helped maintain what was known as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/summary/Jim-Crow-Laws-Key-Facts">Jim Crow rule</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://eji.org/report/reconstruction-in-america/">Two major instances among many stand out</a>: the 1898 “<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-white-supremacist-coup-succeeded-in-1898-north-carolina-led-by-lying-politicians-and-racist-newspapers-that-amplified-their-lies-153052">Wilmington coup</a>,” when white supremacists overthrew the democratically elected biracial city government, and the destruction of a city’s vibrant Black business district and community in <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-grandfather-to-grandson-the-lessons-of-the-tulsa-race-massacre-140925">the Tulsa Race Massacre of 1921</a>. </p>
<p>Violence as a threat to democracy is by no means new, but the U.S. may be entering a new violent chapter. </p>
<p>While we do not have extensive historical data, the rate of political violence seems high now, and there are indications of dangerous trends. For example, in 2023, the U.S. Capitol Police <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/politics/uscp-threat-assessment-lawmakers-2023/index.html">investigated</a> more than 8,000 threats against members of Congress, a substantial increase over 2022. The number of serious threats against federal judges has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-judges-threats/">increased each year</a> since 2019 and is 2.5 times higher now than five years ago. </p>
<p>Citing data collected by Nathan P. Kalmoe, Lilliana Mason and Bright Line Watch, <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=AUa1y3wAAAAJ&hl=en">democracy scholar Rachel Kleinfeld</a> <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-rise-of-political-violence-in-the-united-states/">shows</a> that the percentage of both Democrats and Republicans who believe that violence is sometimes justified to achieve their political goals has more than doubled since 2017, although this remains a minority view in both parties. </p>
<p>From 2020 to 2023, the <a href="https://acleddata.com/">Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project</a> <a href="https://peterlevine.ws/?p=30819">cataloged</a> 1,080 demonstrations in the United States that the organization labels violent – along with more than 50 times as many nonviolent demonstrations – plus 157 cases of excessive force against demonstrators and 22 armed clashes. This data establishes a baseline for tracking the phenomenon in the near future.</p>
<p>From our perspective, nonviolent protests are expressions of a vibrant democracy that deserve protection. There may be room to debate some of the protests labeled “violent.” However, the sheer number of demonstrations that the project labels violent – more than 1,000 in four years – is concerning to us.</p>
<p>The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol may prove to be an example of a period of political unrest. Trump is deeply implicated in the violence. Biden is decrying it – but not necessarily proposing any response other than to vote against Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are potential threats to US democracy posed by the choices voters make in this presidential election. But the benefits of American democracy have for centuries been unequally available.Dayna Cunningham, Pierre and Pamela Omidyar Dean, Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts UniversityPeter Levine, Tisch College Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Lincoln Filene Professor, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254602024-03-18T23:18:23Z2024-03-18T23:18:23ZWith nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls; UK Labour far ahead as election approaches<p>Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/D">majority of all delegates</a> to their parties’ conventions, including delegates not yet allocated. </p>
<p>Both Biden and Trump won their nominations easily, with Biden taking 86.4% of the national Democratic primary vote in contests so far, far ahead of the next closest Marianne Williamson with 3.4%. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/R">Republican contest</a>, Trump defeated Nikki Haley by 73.4–23.1 in the national popular vote, with the winner takes all/most rules that apply for most Republican contests further benefitting him in delegates.</p>
<p>Conventions that formally elect the nominees will be held in July (for Republicans) and August (Democrats). If either Trump or Biden withdrew prior to the convention, delegates bound to that candidate would need to be persuaded to vote for another candidate. It could be messy to replace either Trump or Biden as the nominee.</p>
<h2>Trump is ahead in general election polls</h2>
<p>By the November 5 general election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregates</a>, Biden’s net approval is -16.8, with 55.4% disapproving and 38.6% approving. Trump’s net favourability is -9.7, with 52.5% unfavourable and 42.8% favourable. Recently both Biden’s and Trump’s ratings have dipped, with Biden’s March 7 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/">State of the Union address</a> making no difference.</p>
<p>Biden’s net approval is worse than <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">for any other president</a> at this stage of their presidency since scientific polling began in Harry Truman’s presidency (1945–53). John F. Kennedy and Gerald Ford were not president for as long as Biden has been.</p>
<p>There isn’t yet a FiveThirtyEight aggregate for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">general election polls</a>, but, while there are three recent national polls that give Biden one-to-two point leads, the large majority of national polls have Trump ahead, usually by low single-digit margins.</p>
<p>The national popular vote does not decide the presidency. Instead, there are 538 Electoral Votes distributed among the states based mostly on population, and it takes 270 to win. In my previous US politics article in December, I said that this system would probably favour Trump more than the national popular vote margin.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>US <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence">consumer sentiment</a> surged from 61.3 points in November to 79 in January, the highest it has been since July 2021. In the next two months, consumer sentiment has fallen back a little to 76.5 in March. </p>
<p>The big gains in consumer sentiment were probably due to reduced inflation. However, the latest economic data suggests inflation is increasing again.</p>
<p>Despite the large gain in consumer sentiment, Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate have scarcely changed since my December article. This is bad for Biden, as it implies there is something else wrong other than economic sentiment; his age is the obvious answer.</p>
<p>In December I said the two main chances for a Biden revival were improved economic confidence and Trump being convicted. Economic confidence has improved, but without lifting Biden. On the legal front, Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68577638">criminal trials all face delays</a> that may push them back until after the election. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court on March 4 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-05/trump-wins-us-supreme-court-ballot-colorado/103545028">unanimously overturned</a> a Colorado court’s decision, so Trump will be on the ballot paper in all states in November.</p>
<h2>US economic data</h2>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">February US jobs report</a>, the unemployment rate increased 0.2% from January to 3.9%. While there were 275,000 jobs created in February, there were large downward revisions to job gains in December and January, resulting in 167,000 fewer jobs in those months than previously reported.</p>
<p>Inflation rose 0.4% <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">in February</a>, up from 0.3% in January and 0.2% in December. Core inflation also rose 0.4% in February (0.4% in January and 0.3% in December).</p>
<p>Real (inflation-adjusted) <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm">hourly earnings</a> were down 0.4% in February, though real weekly earnings were flat owing to a gain in weekly hours worked. But there has been a trend towards fewer weekly hours, resulting in a real hourly wage gain of 1.1% in the last 12 months, but only a 0.5% real weekly gain.</p>
<h2>UK Labour far ahead as general election approaches</h2>
<p>The 650 members of the UK House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, where the candidate with more votes than any other wins the seat. The UK has five-year terms, and at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election">December 2019 election</a> Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a thumping victory.</p>
<p>Much has changed since 2019, with Johnson replaced as PM by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson#Premiership_(2019%E2%80%932022)">Liz Truss</a> in September 2022, then Truss was replaced by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss#Premiership_(2022)">Rishi Sunak</a> in October 2022.</p>
<p>Labour has led in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#">UK national polls</a> since late 2021, with their lead blowing out during Truss’ short stint as PM. While the Conservatives recovered some ground under Sunak, they have not been in a competitive position since Johnson was PM.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/">Politico Poll of polls</a> currently has Labour on 43%, the Conservatives on 24%, the far-right Reform on 12%, the liberal Liberal Democrats on 10%, the Greens on 5% and the Scottish National Party on 2%. The last two national polls, which were conducted after a scandal involving a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/14/tories-urged-return-further-5m-donation-frank-hester">Conservative donor accused of racism</a>, gave Labour 23 and 26-point leads.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html">Electoral Calculus</a> seat forecast in late February, based on estimated vote shares in polls of 43.1% Labour, 25.2% Conservative, 9.9% Lib Dems, 10.2% Reform, 5.9% Greens and 3.2% SNP, was a massive Labour landslide, with Labour winning 455 of the 650 seats, to 113 Conservatives, 40 Lib Dems and 18 SNP.</p>
<p>The Conservatives have also lost six of the last seven <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010%E2%80%93present)">byelections</a> in Conservative-held seats since July 2023, five to Labour and one to the Lib Dems. In many of these losses, there were massive swings.</p>
<p>Sunak can call a general election at any time, but it is likely to be held in late 2024, though it could be delayed until <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election">January 2025</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225460/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the Trump v Biden contest shapes up ahead of the US presidential election in November, the polls are not favourable to the incumbent president.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252482024-03-18T17:08:11Z2024-03-18T17:08:11ZBiden v Trump: winning suburbia is key to clinching the presidency in 2024<p>The fight for votes in the upcoming US presidential election is likely to be particularly focused on suburbia.</p>
<p>Historically, Republicans win most support in rural areas and Democrats have larger vote shares in cities. But the suburbs have long been a <a href="https://www.unlv.edu/news/release/blue-metros-red-states-americas-suburbs-and-new-battleground-presidential-politics">political battleground</a>. </p>
<p>Voters in these areas have swung in favour of candidates of both parties in <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">recent elections</a>, making them a key target for political advertising in 2024. But there are a few key factors that could make the suburban vote slightly different this year. </p>
<p>Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have recorded electoral successes in suburban areas in past elections. In 2016, Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, if only by a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKd0lNwopBqXpDglgvkrlqWgbTvsNNNSaWVtj-EkLJs/edit#gid=970549130">two-point margin</a> (47-45). Just two years into his presidency, however, voting behaviour in the suburbs shifted away from Trump’s Republican party. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JKd0lNwopBqXpDglgvkrlqWgbTvsNNNSaWVtj-EkLJs/edit#gid=970549130">2018 midterms</a>, Democrats won the support of 52% of suburban voters while Republicans only received 45% of the vote. Biden was able to build on this momentum in 2020, with 54% of suburban residents casting their vote for the Biden-Harris ticket while Trump fell short of his 2016 result, receiving only 44% of the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">suburban vote in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>Under Biden, the midterms also saw slight shifts in voting behaviour in the suburbs. In the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">2022 midterms</a>, Democrats received slightly less support in the suburbs than in 2020 and 2018, gaining just 50% of the vote. Republicans, on the other hand, recorded 48%, a slight upward trend from their 2018 and 2020 results in suburban counties. </p>
<p>Only 5% of 2018 Democratic voters <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">swung Republican</a> in 2022 and only 4% of 2018 Republican voters switched to supporting Democratic candidates in 2022. </p>
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<p>Shifting political opinions may not be the only possible explanation for swing votes in suburban counties. According to data from Pew Research, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/">voter turnout</a> is a much larger issue for both parties, though more so for Democrats. </p>
<p>Among suburban voters who voted for Democratic candidates in 2018, 22% did not vote in the 2022 midterms. On the Republican side, 16% of 2018 suburban voters stayed home in 2022. </p>
<p>Another possible explanation for shifting voting patterns in the suburbs lies in who has moved there recently. The population of the large suburban counties has increased by 25% in the 21st century. </p>
<p>Overall, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/07/29/prior-to-covid-19-urban-core-counties-in-the-u-s-were-gaining-vitality-on-key-measures/">population growth</a> in the suburbs has been above the national average. And since 2000, the US population has been increasingly concentrated in the 52 largest metropolitan areas, and particularly their suburban counties. </p>
<h2>Who will win Haley’s supporters?</h2>
<p>People living in the suburbs are now more likely, than in previous decades, to be <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/lbc/educational-attainment-rural?tid=1000">college-educated</a>, a demographic group that has been more likely to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/demographic-profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/">vote for Democratic candidates</a> and hold <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">more liberal political views</a>. </p>
<p>Interestingly, it was this demographic group, college-educated voters, who made up a large share of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/06/haley-trump-weakness-00145472">Nikki Haley’s supporters</a> during her Republican primary campaign. Many Republican women who backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">shifted to Haley</a> in the 2024 primaries – arguing that Haley would be able to unify the party and bring about change while Trump could not deliver on either of those issues.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-union-biden-hits-back-at-critics-as-he-warns-of-threats-to-democracy-at-home-and-overseas-224913">State of the Union: Biden hits back at critics as he warns of threats to democracy at home and overseas</a>
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<p>And while Trump outperformed Haley in most demographic groups throughout the primaries, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">college-educated women</a> were the exception. As Trump and Biden compete for Haley’s voting bloc now, the place to find these voters may just be in the suburbs. And this is where <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/lbc/educational-attainment-rural?tid=1000">college-educated residents</a> now make up the largest share of the population.</p>
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<p>Both candidates could face difficulties in suburbia, though. Throughout the primaries, gaining support from suburban voters has been one of Trump’s key weaknesses. </p>
<p>Currently, Biden is doing slightly better with the key suburban demographic groups than Trump. Among college-educated adults, Biden has a <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/joe-biden-favorability?crossBreak=collegegrad">favorability rating</a> of 46.6%, while Trump only records a 39.7% <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=collegegrad">favorability rating</a> (where people rank their feelings towards a politician as positive or negative). </p>
<p>However, the president may not do as well in smaller suburban counties where the population is less likely to be college-educated. Current polling shows that <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=hsorless">Trump</a> does much better among people with education qualifications up to a high school diploma (56.7% favorability rating) than <a href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/joe-biden-favorability?crossBreak=hsorless">Biden</a> (36%). </p>
<h2>Trump’s suburban woman problem</h2>
<p>However, Trump has not been doing as well in the suburbs during the primaries as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/168f3c5a-4f70-49af-a406-7b5972b2ae50">pollsters</a> had predicted. This has raised questions about the accuracy of polls and potential biases or blind spots. </p>
<p>Moving populations and changing demographics are also a potential explanation. There are other issues at stake in 2024 that may cause shifts in electoral behaviour and which could mean these voters are not wiling to reveal their intentions to pollsters. </p>
<p>One example of this is the issue of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/abortion-republican-voters-presidential-election">abortion rights</a>. While some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/us/politics/donald-trump-primary-wins.html#:%7E:text=His%20overwhelming%20primary%20victories%2C%20including,.%20Biden%20Jr.%20in%202020.">conservative voters</a> have disclosed that they were supportive of abortion rights and were therefore not voting for Trump, there may be a significant number of women, particularly in more conservative neighbourhoods and states, who may be hesitant to disclose such shifts in voting intentions. </p>
<p>Haley did well among suburban women, particularly those who had <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-18/south-carolina-suburban-women-see-haley-as-hope-for-republican-party">concerns</a> about Trump’s policies on family and health, wanted more focus on the economy and were not happy with the nastiness of the Trump campaign. </p>
<p>If the key to the White House is winning over Haley’s voters, as has been widely suggested since her exit from the race, this voting group may just be what Biden needs, a detail that has not gone unnoticed by his <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-courts-haley-supporters-after-exit-board/story?id=107846566">campaign</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Leicht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are more college-educated people living in the US suburbs than there used to be, and this may be an important factor in how the vote splits.Caroline Leicht, PhD Candidate in Politics, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2259152024-03-18T17:08:04Z2024-03-18T17:08:04ZGaza conflict: Washington’s patience is wearing thin over the lack of leadership from both Israel and Palestine<p>The US senate majority leader Chuck Schumer – a Democrat and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/us/politics/schumer-netanyahu-israel-elections.html">highest-ranking Jewish official</a> in US history – has called for the removal of both Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, seeing both as representing the politics of the past. </p>
<p>In an incendiary intervention, Schumer – a longtime and stalwart supporter of Israel – <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-03-14/ty-article/.premium/senate-majority-leader-calls-for-new-elections-in-israel/0000018e-3d65-d67c-a18e-ff6d1f4a0000">told the Senate</a> that the continuing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is testing US patience and that the lack of vision by both current Israeli and Palestinian leaders for the future beyond the war is also at variance with US policy.</p>
<p>Of the Israeli prime minister, he said: “Nobody expects Prime Minister Netanyahu to do the things that must be done to break the cycle of violence, to preserve his credibility on the world stage, to work to a two-state solution.” </p>
<p>Turning to Netanyahu’s counterpart in Ramallah, Schumer was equally forthright: “For there to be any hope of peace in the future, Abbas must step down and be replaced by a new generation of Palestinian leaders who will work towards attaining peace with a Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Reflecting on his fellow Democrat’s comments, US president Joe Biden said Schumer had made <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/15/schumer-netanyahu-speech-biden-reaction">“a good speech”</a>, adding that: “I think he expressed a serious concern shared not only by him, but by many Americans.”</p>
<p>Schumer’s speech came at the end of a week where Israeli and Palestinian politics showed how far away they are from the kind of change that Schumer rightly says is necessary.</p>
<p>Shifting factional politics has made Netanyahu’s position more secure. On March 12, Gideon Saar – a key powerbroker in the ruling coalition and an ally of Netanyahu’s biggest rival Benny Gantz – announced he was <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-statesmanlike-right-why-gideon-saar-has-decamped-gantzs-national-unity-party/">pulling out of his alliance with Gantz</a> and demanded that Netanyahu appoint him to the war cabinet. This has weakened Gantz while strengthening Netanyahu’s position. </p>
<p>The last opinion poll taken before Saar’s announcement showed Gantz with a <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-44-of-israelis-prefer-trump-over-biden-as-next-us-president/">12-point lead over Netanyahu</a> and the opposition winning 74 seats out of the 120 Knesset seat if there were an election. But, with Saar’s change of allegiance, an election that could bring about the change that Schumer wants to see now appears further away.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in Ramallah, the Palestinian president called on Muhammad Mustafa, a close associate, <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-14/ty-article/.premium/pa-president-abbas-to-ask-mohammad-mustafa-to-form-new-palestinian-government/0000018e-3cac-d30d-a7de-7cbf89b70000">to be prime minister</a> after the resignation of Mohammad Shtayyeh in February. </p>
<p>Washington had expressed the hope that Abbas would reach outside his circle and appoint a fresh face, maybe choosing a candidate from the next generation that could project the hope of a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA). While Mustafa is two decades younger than Abbas, at 69 he hardly qualifies as someone who can relate to a Palestinian population with a median age is <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-14/population-religion-and-poverty-the-demographics-of-israel-and-gaza#">21.9 years</a>.</p>
<p>Schumer’s frustration with the regional politics reflects a long-held view in Washington. Many US presidents have found Benjamin Netanyahu difficult to deal with, going back to Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Even Donald Trump had problems with Netanyahu, as the then US president’s <a href="https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/deal-of-the-century-what-is-it-and-why-now/">“deal of the century”</a> provided for a Palestinian state – small and weak though it would have been.</p>
<h2>Testing US support</h2>
<p>The Biden administration had thought that its solidarity with Israel after the October 7 atrocities would at least give it some influence over Israel’s response. </p>
<p>It has provided significant financial and human resources to Israel over the past five months. It has been resupplying much-needed military equipment while providing a diplomatic safety net through its veto at the UN security council. </p>
<p>This has been backed by the assiduous efforts of US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to achieve a ceasefire and the return of the Israeli hostages. But Washington has watched in horror as its ally flattened Gaza and exacted a terrible civilian death toll.</p>
<p>Schumer is right when he says that Netanyahu’s alliance with Israel’s far-right is driving the country towards pariah status. The Gaza tragedy is accompanied by a <a href="https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-occupied-west-bank-since-october-7-movement-restrictions-and-collective-punishment/">vicious conflict in the occupied West Bank</a>, which has seen a rising number of Palestinian civilian deaths as a result of both IDF action and settler violence. All of this is aimed at undermining any moves towards reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians and a two-state solution.</p>
<p>Abbas succeeded Yasser Arafat as the president of the PA on Arafat’s death in 2004. He won the election in 2005 but has not held elections since. His administration lacks legitimacy and is widely seen as corrupt. </p>
<p>The combination of inefficiency and corruption of the PA and the continuing inhumanities of more than five decades of Israeli occupation alienates many Palestinians from any idea of peaceful coexistence with Israel and increases the attractiveness of extremist views. Schumer is right that there are extremists on both sides who want the destruction of the other,</p>
<p>But the US administration and leaders like Schumer are unable to change the politics of either Israel or Palestine, all they can do is call for new leaders. </p>
<p>Indeed, some might argue that all this noise about replacing leaders of other countries not only smacks of colonialism but could have the opposite effect. Netanyahu and Abbas – who are both beleaguered at home – might find it useful to have a foreign adversary as a foil to shore up domestic support. Both will pose as defenders of the nation. </p>
<p>With conflict resolution, the challenge is to bring together leaders who are often deeply flawed and who advance reprehensible policies. If they weren’t so flawed and unable to see the other side’s point there would not be a conflict. Schumer has shone a light on the extremist politics in both Israel and Palestine. The political developments in both countries this week make the vision of a peaceful future look more difficult. </p>
<p>And that’s why the US and the international community need to rise to the challenge. Less rhetoric and more practical peacebuilding would be a good start.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Strawson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>But there is little sign that either side is listening.John Strawson, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251532024-03-18T12:23:59Z2024-03-18T12:23:59ZBiden and Trump, though old, are both likely to survive to the end of the next president’s term, demographers explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581396/original/file-20240312-16-ug5e1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4247%2C2965&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are nearly twice the median age of the U.S. population.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024ChinaUnitedStates/46152c599dd14340abc0595fca447682/photo">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3890">In a recent poll</a>, 67% of Americans surveyed believe that President Joe Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president. But only 41% of respondents said they feel that way about former President Donald Trump, who is 77. Both men have stumbled around and have forgotten or mixed up names and events, <a href="https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/memory-loss-and-forgetfulness/memory-problems-forgetfulness-and-aging">which are behaviors that characterize some older people</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jAfhO2YAAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> are <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OBIxsGQAAAAJ&hl=en">demographers</a> – not <a href="https://www.salon.com/2024/02/23/dr-john-gartner-on-a-tale-of-two-brains-bidens-brain-is-aging-brain-is-dementing/">scholars of brain function</a> considering people’s cognitive abilities. But there is a question we can answer, one that speaks to concerns about both men’s ages: their life expectancy.</p>
<p>And it turns out that the four-year age difference between Biden and Trump isn’t really much of a difference when it comes to their respective odds of surviving. The statistical odds are good that both would complete a four-year term as president.</p>
<p>We know this because of one of the most versatile <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/5D47EB8139ED72FD59F7379F7D41B4FB">tools of demography</a>, which is called a life table. It’s a table of age groups, usually from 0 to 100 years, showing the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=14">percentages of the population at any age</a> surviving to a later age. It is based on the age-specific death rates of the population.</p>
<h2>Early record-keeping</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures representing births and deaths." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581391/original/file-20240312-28-kj30q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A bill of mortality for 1605 and 1606, by John Graunt, an early version of what is now known as a life table.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bill_of_Mortality_1606.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The life table dates back to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Graunt">John Graunt, a self-educated citizen of London</a> in the 17th century who is known by many as the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/population-and-society/references/35C31BCEC27E2B0448B160414E1893BF">founder of demography</a>. <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41138862">In 1662, Graunt produced and distributed the first life table</a>, showing the probabilities of London’s population surviving from one age to the next.</p>
<p>There are two kinds of life tables. The first is a cohort life table, which represents the death rates and ages for a specific group of people. A cohort table could, for example, document the deaths of all males born in the U.S. in 1940. That table would be very precise, but it wouldn’t be complete until every member of the group had died – so it’s not especially useful for examining the prospects of the living.</p>
<p>As a result, demographers more often use life tables for a current time period, such as the year 2021, which is the date of the most <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">current period life table for the U.S.</a></p>
<p>It shows the probabilities of surviving from one age to another age based on the death rates in 2021. </p>
<h2>Statistical documentation</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf">A period life table for 2021</a> indicates that almost 99% of all people born in the U.S. survive from age 0 to age 20; just over 95% of them survive to age 40, and over 85% to age 60. More than 51% of them live to age 80.</p>
<p>But life tables get much more specific. It’s important to examine life tables’ data for each age, race and gender combination. This is because males don’t live as long as females, Black people don’t live as long as white people, and non-Hispanic people don’t live as long as Hispanic people. There are more specialized life tables that focus on education level and income, but they are not as current and complete as the broader tables.</p>
<p>Biden and Trump are both non-Hispanic white men. Biden is 81 and Trump is 77.</p>
<p>Based on the age-specific death rates of non-Hispanic white men in the U.S. in 2021, Biden has a 92.9% probability of surviving at least to age 82. Trump has a 95.1% probability of surviving to at least age 78. These odds are nearly identical, so each man is very likely to be alive on Inauguration Day 2025, regardless of which of them is being sworn in as president.</p>
<p>What about finishing out that four-year term? <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=47">Our calculations from the life tables</a> reveal that there is a 63.3% probability that Biden will survive another five years – to at least 86. And there is a 73.6% probability for Trump to survive that period – to at least age 82. Of course, it’s possible either or both will die, but their odds of death are much lower than their odds of survival.</p>
<p>In general, the chances are a bit more favorable for Trump, because he is slightly younger.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table of figures showing how many people of one age survive to a future age." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581097/original/file-20240311-20-hc2ous.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2021 life table for the U.S. is the most recent available.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf#page=10">U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Precise calculations</h2>
<p>There are two factors that let us demographers get even more specific. </p>
<p>First, we measure age as exact years. Their age gap is not four years, but 3.5: <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/joseph-r-biden-jr">Biden was born on Nov. 20, 1942</a>, and <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/bios/donald-j-trump">Trump on June 14, 1946</a>. That 10 percentage-point survival advantage for Trump over Biden was based on a four-year age difference. The real difference drops one or two points because they’re not quite so far apart in age.</p>
<p>Second, demographers have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2648114">people who attend church regularly live longer</a> than those who don’t. This is not because of some divine favor but because churchgoers tend to have more optimistic attitudes, clearer senses of purpose and more regular social interactions and connections. All of these factors extend people’s lives. Biden is a Catholic and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AC1X6/">attends Mass weekly, in general</a>. Trump was raised as a Presbyterian but now considers himself to be a “<a href="https://www.deseret.com/2023/10/22/23922731/biden-trump-faith-and-presidential-candidates/">nondenominational Christian</a>,” and he attends religious services very irregularly. So, Biden gets the survival advantage associated with churchgoing. </p>
<p>Other factors come into play with longevity as well, such as marital status, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10936-2">body mass index scores</a>, diets and levels of physical fitness and exercise. </p>
<h2>A comparison with the American people</h2>
<p>Biden and Trump are <a href="https://theconversation.com/candidates-aging-brains-are-factors-in-the-presidential-race-4-essential-reads-223419">two of the three oldest people</a> ever to serve as president. The population they are seeking to lead is also older than ever before.</p>
<p>The median age of the nation’s population was <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html">38.9 in 2022</a> compared with <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1972/dec/pc-s1-10.html">28.1 in 1970</a> and just <a href="https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2000/phc/phc-t-09/tab07.pdf">16.7 in 1820</a>. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/opinion/biden-aging-america-population.html">Relative to the age of the population</a>, President Biden is no older than the country’s first presidents,” including Thomas Jefferson, wrote James Chappel, a scholar of aging and history at Duke University, in The New York Times. More recently, Reagan was older than the median American of his time than Biden and Trump are today.</p>
<p>At their second inaugurations, Jefferson was roughly 45 years older than the median age of the U.S. population then, and Reagan 43 years older. If Biden wins a second term, he will be 42 years older than today’s median. If Trump wins in 2024, he will be 38 years older than the current median. </p>
<p>As demographers, we can say it is likely that both Biden and Trump will be alive when the presidential term that begins in 2025 comes to an end in 2029. But as the U.S. population gets older too, the age factor may become less important to voters. This is not an immediate change, however, but one that will likely occur over the next decade or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Detailed data on the ages at which people die can give good indications of a person’s remaining life span.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityRogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San AntonioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2256612024-03-18T02:57:58Z2024-03-18T02:57:58ZWill the AUKUS deal survive in the event of a Trump presidency? All signs point to yes<p>A year ago, the AUKUS agreement was formally announced between Australian and UK Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden. The agreement mapped out the “<a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/optimal-pathway">optimal pathway</a>” for Australia, over the next two decades, to acquire between six and eight sub-surface nuclear propulsion boats, or more simply put, nuclear submarines.</p>
<p>The plan to acquire and build them has been the subject of ongoing debate. That’s largely because there’s limited understanding of the <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/one-year-along-australias-optimal-pathway-to-nuclear-powered-submarines/">need for Australia</a> to acquire submarines of this kind. </p>
<p>Concerns are also emerging over how committed the US really is to the deal, given doubts about whether it has the industrial capability to manufacture enough subs to meet its own needs. All this has fuelled speculation over the project’s viability. </p>
<p>So what is the US obliged to provide Australia with, in terms of submarines, under AUKUS? When will Australia likely get submarines under this deal? And how much can the domestic political and naval challenges facing the US affect how it meets its AUKUS requirements, particularly if Donald Trump is elected president?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aukus-is-here-to-stay-despite-looming-roadblocks-213112">Why AUKUS is here to stay, despite looming roadblocks</a>
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<h2>The state of play</h2>
<p>Australia is now heavily invested in making AUKUS work, avoiding further <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-11/albanese-submarine-deal-with-france/101145042">policy U-turns</a>. </p>
<p>Aided by some deft Australian diplomacy, in December 2023 the US Congress passed the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670">National Defence Authorisation Act</a> which <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-12-15/passage-priority-aukus-submarine-and-export-control-exemption-legislation-united-states-congress">authorised</a> the transfer of three Virginia class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. Given the almost gridlocked US political system, this was once considered inconceivable. </p>
<p>The act also confirmed arrangements for training Australians in US and UK shipyards and, in turn, the maintenance of their submarines in Australia by Australians. </p>
<p>That does not mean, though, that everything is now set on autopilot. Understandably, the US reserves the right to fulfil its own domestic naval needs first. </p>
<p>But fears of the plans being derailed are misplaced, and suggestions Australia reverse course are problematic. Critics referring to the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-13/us-defence-announcement-raises-questions-on-aukus-anniversary/103578408">profound impact</a>” of any production slowdown have an important political point to make, drawing attention to the need for urgency and acceleration of the program, not cancellation.</p>
<p>Reports that the rate of production of these Virginia class submarines will dip to 1.3 per year has <a href="https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/usn-virginia-submarine-production-shortfall-worsens/">generated some alarm</a>. This belies the fact the dip in production was anticipated and plans are underway to rectify the shortfall. The two US manufacturing companies that make submarines of this type, <a href="https://www.gdeb.com/">Electric Boat</a> and <a href="https://hii.com/">Huntington Ingalls Industries</a>, are taking measures to accelerate the rate of manufacture to 2.3 boats per year. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Australia’s <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/AUKUS-factsheet.pdf">financial and personnel contributions</a> are helping. Plans are still in place that will enable Australia to purchase its first second-hand, but refurbished, Virginia class submarine in the mid-2030s.</p>
<p>That seems a long way off. To cover the gap, Australia’s existing diesel-electric Collins class submarines will be retained, supplemented by a <a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/submarine-rotational-force-west">Submarine Rotational Force-West</a>, which will include UK and US submarines rotating through the Garden Island Naval Facility in Cockburn Sound, south of Fremantle. </p>
<p>While it doesn’t have the recognition of Pearl Harbor, Cockburn Sound is just as significant. In the Pacific war, about 170 allied submarines were based at Cockburn Sound from 1942 to 1945. From there, they protected Allied shipping and interdicted enemy sea lines of communication across the Indian Ocean, as well as the Malacca, Lombok and Sunda straits (in modern-day Indonesia), and across the South China Sea and around Formosa (now Taiwan). </p>
<p>Already, US Navy Virginia class subs have started making routine port calls there. The deterrent effect is already kicking in – and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5f0e31c0-957d-4c4f-a6e3-e597881d8fd9#:%7E:text=Concerns%20about%20the,in%20the%20Pacific.">vociferous criticism of AUKUS</a> suggests that some <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks">doth protest too much</a>.</p>
<h2>What if Trump comes to power?</h2>
<p>In the meantime, some worry about what effect Trump’s prospective return to office might have on these plans. </p>
<p>AUKUS is understood to be a game-changer, and political leaders in Washington DC, both Democrat and Republican, understand this. It reflects an enduring overlap of Australian and US interests, not just sentimental attachments. </p>
<p>Australia benefits from US technology in bolstering its military and intelligence capabilities, reducing its “<a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment">fear of abandonment</a>”.</p>
<p>In turn, the US retains access to facilities in the East Asian hemisphere to monitor security trends and bolster deterrence in ways that suit their <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188604/united-states-direct-investments-in-the-asia-pacific-region-since-2000/">economic and security interests</a>. This is appreciated by US security <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/05/fact-sheet-u-s-asean-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-one-year-on/">partners in Asia</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, while Trump has been critical of <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/closer-trumps-years-criticizing-nato-defense-spending/story?id=107201586">NATO and other allies</a>, he has broadly avoided criticising Australia. </p>
<p>The overwhelmingly bipartisan December vote in Congress suggests that fears of the agreement losing support in the US are misplaced. There are no indications Trump is set to change that stance, and there are some compelling reasons for the next US administration to stay the course. </p>
<h2>Why do we need new submarines anyway?</h2>
<p>Back home, though, the Australian government’s message on these submarines has been clouded. </p>
<p>Eager to avoid drawing undue attention to the limitations of the current fleet, it has avoided talking up how potent and useful the replacement subs will be. </p>
<p>This is in spite of the fact that no matter how <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/collins-class-submarine-upgrade-will-extend-australias-non-nuclear-boats-to-2048/">well maintained and updated</a> the Collins are, such submarines are no longer viable for long-distance transits required for Australian submarine operations. This is not because of some intrinsic fault with the Australian submarines, but due to their ability to be detected from above.</p>
<p>The surveillance web of persistent and almost saturation <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-casic-to-begin-launching-vleo-satellites-in-december/#:%7E:text=The%20very-low%20Earth%20orbit%20%28VLEO%29%20constellation%20is%20to,in%20the%20city%20of%20Wuhan%20earlier%20this%20month.">satellite coverage</a>, coupled with drones and artificial intelligence, makes the wake of the submarine funnels are detectable when they raise their snorkel to recharge batteries. </p>
<p>Much of this surveillance is believed to be operating from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-18/china-s-new-antarctic-station-qinling-in-antarctica-australia/103464840">Chinese facilities in Antarctica</a>, <a href="https://spacenews.com/south-africa-joins-chinas-moon-base-project/">southern Africa</a> and <a href="https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-ground-stations-space/">South America</a>. </p>
<p>With stealth of submarines the only real advantage over surface warships, the usefulness of the current fleet on long transits sinks quickly. This leaves nuclear propulsion as the only viable path for countries that must traverse vast ocean distances even to cover their own waters. </p>
<p>For Australia, a transit from any capital city across to Fremantle cannot happen without exposure to detection. In wartime, that presents a catastrophic risk only surmounted by remaining underwater for the duration.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-aukus-deal-will-be-hotly-debated-at-the-alp-national-conference-but-its-real-vulnerabilities-lie-in-america-211504">The AUKUS deal will be hotly debated at the ALP national conference, but its real vulnerabilities lie in America</a>
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<p>Beyond recouping stealth, the benefits of the new nuclear submarines are considerable. Australian submarines are intended to help manage vital shipping lanes. </p>
<p>The new vessels can travel faster than the current fleet (about 20 knots on average instead of six-and-a-half knots) and stay on station for longer, bolstering the deterrent effect. </p>
<p>The main constraint is food for the crew. A fleet of up to eight nuclear subs should generate three times the effective deployable time compared with the current Australian fleet because it can deploy faster, loiter longer and remain undetected, without needing to recharge batteries.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Blaxland is Professor of International Security and Intelligence Studies and Director of the Australian National University’s (ANU) North America Liaison Office in Washington DC. He is author of a number of works, including Revealing Secrets: An Unofficial History of Australian Signals Intelligence and the Advent of Cyber (UNSWP, 2023, with Clare Birgin).</span></em></p>Amid reports of a dip in US production of nuclear submarines and concerns about the future of the agreement under Donald Trump, some have questioned the viability of AUKUS. But they need not worry.John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2258702024-03-15T20:03:38Z2024-03-15T20:03:38ZAttempts to ban TikTok reveal the hypocrisy of politicians already struggling to relate to voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582275/original/file-20240315-26-rjm6wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C5333%2C2969&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Banning TikTok has economic implications and will affect hundreds of millions of users.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>TikTok has been under review due to national security concerns by the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tiktok-national-security-review-1.7143574">Canadian federal government</a> since September 2023.</p>
<p>This was reported the day after the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a bill potentially banning TikTok. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that the Canadian review of TikTok <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-government-ordered-national-security-review-of-tiktok-didn-t-disclose-it-publicly-1.6807265">is not related to the current actions undertaken by U.S. lawmakers</a>, but the government is following how the situation unfolds.</p>
<p>A potential ban in the United States and possibly Canada reveals the hypocrisy of those trying to get rid of it: politicians.</p>
<h2>Government concerns over TikTok</h2>
<p>The legislation proposed by U.S. lawmakers to ban TikTok — unless their Beijing-based parent company ByteDance divests — stems from rising geopolitical tensions. The potential ban represents the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/facebook-tiktok-targeted-victory/">lobbying efforts</a> of Silicon Valley companies, who are finding their power in the global platform economy decreasing. </p>
<p>U.S. and Canadian governments are concerned about the control and authority China exerts over ByteDance, and the possibility they can access user data. </p>
<p>However, it is unsurprising that national security concerns are being debated about TikTok in Canada. Trudeau’s February 2023 decision to ban TikTok on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-mobile-apps-canada-government-united-states-justin-trudeau-43b27a80a1c2bf3b55e5ccf2ce573684">government-issued mobile devices</a> followed a similar move undertaken by U.S. President Joe Biden, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/20/us-tiktok-bans-university-campuses">numerous U.S. universities</a>. </p>
<p>Donald Trump also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/business/trump-tik-tok-wechat-ban.html">expressed similar concerns about TikTok</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-attempts-to-ban-tiktok-and-other-chinese-tech-undermine-global-democracy-144144">national security in 2020</a>. He has since changed his position; one of Trump’s campaign supporters is a wealthy Republican billionaire who is also <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/trump-tiktok-billionaire-donors-00146892">a major investor in TikTok</a>.</p>
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<h2>Real-world implications</h2>
<p>A potential TikTok ban in the U.S. and Canada could have disastrous economic implications on the livelihoods of both Americans and Canadians.</p>
<p>TikTok is a lucrative platform for numerous small business owners and entrepreneurial platform workers. For <a href="https://windsor.ctvnews.ca/that-s-their-livelihood-windsor-ont-influencer-md-motivator-talks-possible-u-s-tiktok-ban-1.6806543">Canadian TikTok influencers</a>, their followers are predominantly composed of American users. Banning TikTok would likely mean the loss of views and interactions in the tens of thousands.</p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/15/23962766/nearly-one-third-of-young-adults-are-regularly-getting-news-from-tiktok">young people are increasingly using TikTok to access news</a>. While TikTok’s growth has been slower in Canada, it’s one of the <a href="https://socialmedialab.ca/2022/09/14/survey-finds-canadians-are-spending-less-time-on-social-media-but-tiktok-is-the-exception/">most popular apps</a> among young users. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-pandemic-measures-are-lifted-social-media-use-has-declined-with-the-exception-of-tiktok-191126">As pandemic measures are lifted, social media use has declined with the exception of TikTok</a>
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<p>It’s in accessing and circulating information where the hypocritical implications of a TikTok ban come to the forefront of this debate.</p>
<h2>U.S. politicians and TikTok</h2>
<p>President Biden first banned TikTok on government devices in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/tiktok-ban-biden-government-college-state-federal-security-privacy-rcna63724">December 2022</a>. The move was due to the continuing debate about China’s influence over ByteDance.</p>
<p>However, TikTok was instrumental in the Biden adminstration’s communications strategy. In 2021, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/01/technology/vaccine-lies-influencer-army.html">White House partnered with social media influencers</a>, including TikTok creators, to encourage U.S. citizens to get their COVID-19 vaccine. </p>
<p>TikTok played an important role leading up to the November 2022 midterm elections. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/tiktok-democrats-influencers-biden/">Democratic National Committee (DNC)</a> invited TikTok influencers to Washington, D.C. These influencers met with high-ranking members of Biden’s administration, interacted with former president Barack Obama, and toured key D.C. landmarks, like the Capitol and the Oval Office. These activities were all posted on TikTok as part of the DNC campaign.</p>
<p>Despite announcing that he would <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-tiktok-ban-house-china-aaa884d8c974f0a35856af5ee6aa4e99">sign legislation banning TikTok if passed</a>, Biden’s campaign recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/13/joe-biden-tiktok-campaign-national-security-social-media">activated a TikTok profile</a> as part of their digital strategy for the upcoming presidential election. </p>
<p>Biden is currently <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-people-are-lukewarm-about-biden-and-giving-them-more-information-doesnt-move-the-needle-much-222233">not performing well with young voters</a>. His campaign’s decision to reestablish a TikTok presence reflects this re-election concern. It is not a wise re-election strategy to pass a TikTok ban prior to the November presidential election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a group of people protesting with signs that read I'M ONE OF 170 MILLION AMERICANS WHO USE TIKTOK. the US capitol can be seen in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582274/original/file-20240315-18-ebnnj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Devotees of TikTok protest a proposed bill that would lead to a nationwide ban of the popular video app if its China-based owner doesn’t divest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Politics and TikTok in Canada</h2>
<p>In contrast to the U.S., Trudeau’s ban of TikTok has stifled political campaigning on the platform by other Canadian politicians. </p>
<p>NDP leader Jagmeet Singh consequently <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/pierre-poilievre-jagmeet-singh-take-tiktok-hiatus-amid-government-ban-over-privacy-concerns/article_3943a81c-ed92-5477-9335-266219980b95.html">deactivated</a> his TikTok profile. With almost 900,000 followers, Singh’s TikTok attempted to communicate with young users in a language and style they understand. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-decision-to-ban-tiktok-from-government-devices-is-bad-news-for-the-ndps-election-strategy-200980">Canada's decision to ban TikTok from government devices is bad news for the NDP's election strategy</a>
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<p>Despite these existing bans, national security reviews and the threat of new proposed bans, politicians across Canada are campaigning on TikTok.</p>
<p>The Ontario NDP began posting on TikTok in January 2024, with many of their videos using <a href="https://www.blogto.com/city/2024/02/ontario-political-flame-war-cat-memes/">cat memes</a> to advocate against Premier Doug Ford’s policies. This move is part of the Ontario NDP’s <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/P/bo70027855.html">permanent campaign</a> digital strategy gearing up for the 2026 provincial election. </p>
<p>Throughout his political career, Trudeau has cultivated his political image by using social media platforms like <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2018/instagram-justin-trudeau-and-political-image-making/">Instagram</a>. It’s noteworthy that neither himself, nor the Liberal or Conservative parties have ever had a TikTok presence.</p>
<p>That’s because TikTok has been strategically used by those parties that don’t have the same <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/20563051231157604">financial resources</a>. Political parties like the NDP see TikTok as a long term strategy to reach potential young voters. </p>
<p>If the Canadian government follows with similar legislation, these political parties will lose out on a platform where they can reach young voters.</p>
<p>Concerns about privacy and security exist with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/cambridge-analytica-facebook-influence-us-election">all social media platforms</a>, not just TikTok. Proposed U.S. legislation banning TikTok and Canadian national security reviews showcase the insincerity of politicians and the contradictory nature of politics. Their actions reveal what they don’t want to admit: TikTok is a dominant social media platform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aidan Moir has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Proposed U.S. legislation banning TikTok and the recently revealed Canadian national security review of the app reveals the insincerity and hypocrisy of politicians.Aidan Moir, Assistant Professor, Department of Communication, Media and Film, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250692024-03-13T12:38:35Z2024-03-13T12:38:35ZHopes that Biden will quit his reelection campaign ignore the differences – and lessons – of LBJ and 1968’s Democratic catastrophe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580739/original/file-20240308-16-a0f8xb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C5%2C3671%2C2447&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago was not a peaceful event.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-sign-over-archway-leading-to-the-international-news-photo/515578006?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s just over six months until Election Day. The president faces a tough fight for reelection. His approval rating has cratered below 40% in the polls, his party is divided over a foreign war, and a bipartisan chorus declares that he’s no longer up to the job. Polls show him running neck and neck with the likely Republican nominee. </p>
<p>Faced with this grim situation, the president decides to put country before his own political ambition and declares he won’t run for reelection.</p>
<p>Joe Biden in 2024? </p>
<p>Nope, it’s Lyndon Johnson in 1968. On March 31 of that year, <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/march-31-1968-remarks-decision-not-seek-re-election">LBJ shocked the nation when</a>, at the end of a televised address on the Vietnam War, he declared, “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.”</p>
<p>Today, a chorus of <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2024/0227/Biden-should-drop-out!-No-he-shouldn-t!-Debate-rages">political commentators predict or hope</a> that Biden will follow LBJ’s example. But 2024 is not 1968, and Joseph Robinette Biden is not Lyndon Baines Johnson.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CJeLoMCF6Jo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president,’ said LBJ on March 31, 1968.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Divisions over a war</h2>
<p>In 1968, the Democratic Party was deeply divided over the Vietnam War. Despite having deployed over 500,000 troops and suffered over 20,000 deaths, the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/03/the-vietnam-war-part-ii-losses-and-withdrawal/389192/">U.S. seemed no closer to victory</a>. </p>
<p>So-called “<a href="https://news.gallup.com/vault/191828/gallup-vault-hawks-doves-vietnam.aspx">hawks</a>” demanded that the president hold the line in Vietnam or even escalate further in order to achieve total victory. “<a href="https://news.gallup.com/vault/191828/gallup-vault-hawks-doves-vietnam.aspx">Doves</a>” argued that the war was unwinnable and the U.S. should look for a negotiated settlement.</p>
<p>Today, many <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/inside-democratic-rebellion-against-biden-over-gaza-war-2024-02-27/">Democrats oppose Biden’s support</a> for Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, but it’s easy to overstate this division. A recent Gallup poll found that only 1% of Americans cited “war in the Middle East” as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx">the nation’s top problem</a>. </p>
<p>In contrast, early in 1968, Gallup found that a majority of Americans – 53% – said that Vietnam was the <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/study/31087737/questions#fdf0b252-9191-417f-89ba-ba32cd16c587">most important issue facing the nation</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, most Democrats remain supportive of Israel. A recent Reuters poll found that 46% of Democrats blame Hamas for the war compared with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-dogged-by-democrats-anger-over-israel-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-02-29/">only 22% who blame Israel</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever concerns Democrats might have over Biden, the fact remains that no prominent Democrats have chosen to oppose him for the party nomination. Even leading progressive Democrats like <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bernie-sanders-biden-endorsement-2024-d8f0772b117e2bf83e1062708ea651c0">Sen. Bernie Sanders</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/aoc-endorses-biden-2024-president-democrats-3c722f5ac1bc2c568b6d962d4fe4e2b7">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> have endorsed Biden. Ocasio-Cortez even went so far as to call Biden “one of the <a href="https://nbcmontana.com/news/nation-world/aoc-calls-biden-one-of-the-most-successful-presidents-in-history-amid-age-concerns-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-2024-election-special-counsel-report-donald-trump-president-white-house">most successful presidents</a> in modern American history.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of people in a convention hall, with some holding signs that say 'Stop the war.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580744/original/file-20240308-28-p15lv5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bitter differences over the Vietnam War were on display at the 1968 Democratic convention.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-new-york-delegation-protesting-against-the-news-photo/51247068?adppopup=true">Washington Bureau/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>After LBJ, no unity</h2>
<p>In contrast, differences over the Vietnam War and other issues led two sitting U.S. senators, <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/c2.html">Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota</a> and <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/a1.html">Robert F. Kennedy of New York</a>, to challenge Johnson for the Democratic nomination. And despite low name recognition and a shoestring campaign, McCarthy even managed a near upset of Johnson in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/03/12/eugene-mccarthy-vs-lbj-the-new-hampshire-primary-showdown-that-changed-everything/">the New Hampshire primary</a>, held on March 12, 1968. </p>
<p>Given these differences, it seems very unlikely that Biden will seek to follow LBJ’s example by dropping out of the race. And for those who hope Biden will do so anyway, they should be careful what they wish for. </p>
<p>Johnson’s withdrawal failed to unify the party. Far from it. </p>
<p>McCarthy, Kennedy and Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who joined the race after Johnson’s exit, <a href="https://features.apmreports.org/arw/campaign68/e1.html">fought a bitter battle</a> for the nomination. Tensions exploded during that year’s <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Democratic convention in Chicago</a>. </p>
<p>Americans watched on live television as <a href="https://time.com/5377386/1968-democratic-national-convention-protesters/">police brutally beat anti-war demonstrators</a> in the streets outside the convention hall. </p>
<p>Inside the convention, Sen. Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut denounced “<a href="https://75.stripes.com/archives/chicago-democratic-convention-68-embodies-clash-over-future-america">Gestapo tactics on the streets of Chicago</a>.” In response, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley unleashed a torrent of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/08/25/nyregion/ribicoff-and-daley-head-to-head.html">vulgar, antisemitic comments</a>. <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/680830convention-dem-ra.html">Humphrey eventually won the nomination</a>, but his candidacy was deeply wounded and he went on to narrowly lose the election to Richard Nixon.</p>
<p>Should Biden decide not to run, Democrats might face a similar situation. </p>
<p>There is no obvious candidate to replace him, and the contest to do so would likely inflame Democratic divisions over ideology, gender and race. Furthermore, at this late date, it would be nearly impossible to win the nomination via the remaining caucuses and primaries. </p>
<p>Instead, the Democratic convention, slated for late August in Chicago, would probably end up choosing the nominee, leaving him or her open to criticism that they were selected by party bosses rather than the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225069/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Klinkner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An unpopular president. A war that’s dividing the country. An upcoming election. What year is it?Philip Klinkner, James S. Sherman Professor of Government, Hamilton CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249122024-03-13T12:28:23Z2024-03-13T12:28:23ZWhy Biden is investing in influencers to help with this year’s election<p>Move over Taylor Swift. You’re not the only one with crowds of worshipping fans who can <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-maher-taylor-swift-biden-trump-presidential-election-super-bowl-2024-2">tip the 2024 election</a>. </p>
<p>Mega-celebrities like singers, athletes and Hollywood stars get the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jleo/article-abstract/29/2/355/914869">bulk of the attention</a> when it comes to their coveted political endorsements. But this year, it’s the online influencers who candidates, including President Joe Biden, are increasingly looking to court. </p>
<p>Social media personalities on platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram boast hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions, of followers. These content creators <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8872418/">bankroll their curated lifestyles</a> by marketing everything from lipstick to watches. </p>
<p>The appeal of these influencers in the political sphere is obvious. Many have built up <a href="http://www.promotionalcommunications.org/index.php/pc/article/view/136">vast, admiring audiences</a>. They’ve developed close, intimate relationships that can be leveraged. Their word means something to their followers, whether that’s promoting a L'Oreal eyeliner, or a presidential ticket. </p>
<p>If <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/04/youre-about-spend-so-much-money-instagram/588373/#:%7E:text=The%20platform%20is%20allowing%20influencers,users%20directly%20through%20their%20posts.&text=Ever%20since%20Instagram%20first%20allowed,are%20getting%20their%20product%20recommendations.">“Instagram is the new mall”</a>, it might soon also be the new epicentre of political campaigning, particularly because influencers have a lot of credibility with young people. And, Biden needs young voters to turn out for him, particularly as polling suggests that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">young Republicans</a> may be more enthusiastic about Trump than young Democrats about Biden. </p>
<p>Biden recently <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7fb6177c-30b7-4f30-b7ac-de89398ea350">rolled out the red carpet</a> at the White House for hundreds of influencers including actor Kalen Allen and artist Devon Rodriguez, hoping to persuade them to join his cadre of digital assets. Rodriguez has 9 million Instagram followers and Allen 2 million. Trump, too, has been cosy with conservative influencers <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hosts-conservative-influencers-libs-tik-tok-babylon-bee-dinner-rcna67396">such as the head of “Libs of Tik Tok”</a> and Seth Dillon of Babylon Bee, a Christian news satire website.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee has constructed an online organising hub that reporter Makena Kelly <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/9/23298040/dnc-democrats-midterms-elections-tiktok-instagram-influencers">has described as</a> a “destination for influencers, surrogates, and supporters to receive party-sponsored talking points, messaging, and a wide variety of digital content to post on their own social media feeds”.</p>
<p>There are reports that the influential <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/01/biden-campaign-social-media-influencers-00136389">Democrat political action committee (Pac) Priorities USA</a> is paying US$1 million (£782,000) to around 150 influencers to encourage the publishing of pro-Biden posts. Pacs raise money for candidates independent of official campaigns and then spend cash to bolster their preferred candidates. </p>
<p>The rise of influencers in American politics marks the latest evolution in a stream of technological innovations adapted by candidates, from Barack Obama’s early embrace of the internet <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2008/nov/07/barackobama-uselections2008">and Facebook</a> in 2008 to Trump’s unvarished, shoot-from-the-hip <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-twitter-use-campaign-2016.html">communication on Twitter</a> in 2016.</p>
<p>Influencers, however, largely promise to be more subtle, more discreet, and more subliminal than conventional actors involved in electioneering. In fact, trend forecasters have suggested that not being in-your-face and overtly partisan can be the key to perceived <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2021/aug/12/being-too-aspirational-is-repellent-now-the-rise-of-the-genuinfluencers">“genuineness”</a>. </p>
<p>A Biden-Harris bumper sticker that “just happens” to find its way into the backdrop of a YouTube clip touting the health benefits of kale smoothies. An “off the cuff” reference to Trump’s plans to strip abortion rights amid a product review for the latest Chanel handbag. It’s not just about parroting back formal campaign slogans. </p>
<h2>Issues with influencers</h2>
<p>The use of influencers in politics raises big legal, ethical and policy quandaries. </p>
<p>Influencers are generally <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/plain-language/1001a-influencer-guide-508_1.pdf">required</a> by the US Federal Trade Commission to disclose any sponsorships and financial gain from sales. Yet the legal landscape surrounding political influencers is still inchoate, and many critics say that politicians and Pacs exploit influencers to circumvent campaign finance laws. </p>
<p>The US Federal Election Commission has <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/3881167-will-the-fec-finally-rein-in-political-influencers-on-social-media/">failed to offer regulatory clarity</a> regarding the rules that apply to influencers in campaigns. Additionally, while some social media companies like Facebook actually <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-socialmedia-sponsored/from-facebook-to-tiktok-u-s-political-influencers-are-paid-for-posts-idUSKBN27E1T9/">paused political ads</a> in the days immediately preceding the 2020 election, influencers were left untouched. </p>
<p>The possible problems don’t stop there. </p>
<p>Communications researchers Katie Joseff and Samuel C. Woolley, for example, have <a href="https://mediaengagement.org/research/social-media-influencers-and-the-2020-election/">argued</a> that the hiring of influencers in politics “amounts to a new and growing form of ‘inorganic’ information operations — elite-dictated propaganda through trusted social media spokespersons”.</p>
<p>Even worse, they say, top-down “propaganda from influencers are better able to evade detection systems built to detect political bots and sockpuppets and to defy regulators concerned with digital free speech”. </p>
<p>There’s <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.2.211">no shortage of consternation</a> about foreign nations and organisations, especially the Kremlin, wielding disinformation to meddle in US elections. While domestic influencers may not have nefarious aims, social media followers may be impressionable in thinking political endorsements are authentic. </p>
<p>The desire to court influencers might even distort public policy. As writer Katie Harbath has <a href="https://anchorchange.substack.com/p/will-2024-be-the-influencer-election">observed</a>, when it comes to debates like whether to ban TikTok over privacy or national security concerns: “Democrats are in a tricky spot because they want access to the younger user base that the app has but also recognise the challenges with the app.”</p>
<h2>Can influencers swing elections?</h2>
<p>If the name “influencer” implies anything, the answer is yes — at least on the margins. While rigorous, experimental evidence <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20563051231177938">is hard to come by</a>, and the trend in politics is relatively new, it’s clear that Americans who increasingly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/15/news-trends-social/">get much of their news from digital sources</a> are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-social-media-makes-us-more-polarized-and-how-to-fix-it/">shaped by online content</a>. </p>
<p>People First, a firm that specialises in influencer partnerships, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/elections/influencers-political-ads-tiktok-instagram.html">has found</a>, for example, that more than 40% of people surveyed “trusted influencers more than political campaigns themselves”. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, influencers are likely to disproportionately sway <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/85/2/725/6294224?redirectedFrom=fulltext">youth voters, who tend to lean Democrat</a>. Gen-Z and young millenial voters could turn out at higher rates as a result. </p>
<p>In a 2024 election that’s likely to be decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states, influencers could be influential. Biden, especially, can’t afford to lose the youth vote that supported <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/for-biden-youth-vote-polling-is-a-warning-not-the-apocalypse/">Democrats at high rates in the 2022 midterms</a>. </p>
<p>Conspiracy theorists who think that Taylor Swift is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/02/taylor-swift-kelce-conspiracy-tariffs-immigration/">CIA asset aiming to upend American politics</a> are looking in the wrong place. For evidence of a more disruptive (and, potentially corruptible) form of politics, they need only fire up social media.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling suggests young Republicans may be more enthusiastic about Trump, than young Democrats are about Biden.Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253692024-03-08T17:10:51Z2024-03-08T17:10:51ZJoe Biden’s plan to build a pier to get aid into Gaza isn’t enough – here are six issues needed for an effective aid strategy<p>In his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2024/">State of the Union address</a>, Joe Biden announced an idea to alleviate the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/factbox-what-is-humanitarian-situation-war-torn-gaza-2024-03-05/">desperate humanitarian situation</a> in Gaza. The American president said he is “directing the US military to lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast that can receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters”. </p>
<p>Hopes of a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/politics/us-military-aid-port-gaza-biden/index.html">humanitarian ceasefire</a>, which seemed within reach only recently, have dwindled once again as both Israel and Hamas have doubled down on their incompatible positions. So Biden’s announcement represents the latest desperate attempt to get around the Israeli blockade that severely limits the flow of supplies into Gaza. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTVkYmEwNmMtZWYxNy00ODhlLWI2ZjctNjIzMzQ5OGQxNzY5IiwidCI6IjI2MmY2YTQxLTIwZTktNDE0MC04ZDNlLWZkZjVlZWNiNDE1NyIsImMiOjl9&pageName=ReportSection3306863add46319dc574">number of trucks</a> going through the two opened border crossings has been particularly low lately – with an average of 100 trucks a day in February to supply millions of people.</p>
<p>More aid is desperately needed. Children are dying of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-conflict-rising-death-toll-from-hunger-a-stark-reminder-of-starvation-as-a-weapon-of-war-225197">malnutrition and dehydration</a> in Gaza. Overcrowded shelters offer very little space and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/regional-response-crisis-occupied-palestinian-territory-situation-report-20-7-march-2024">most people in Gaza live</a> with limited access to water and poor sanitation facilities. The few operational <a href="https://www.rescue.org/article/collapse-gazas-health-system">hospitals are struggling</a> with a lack of staff, electricity and medical supplies. </p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68457937">air drops</a> by the Jordanian and US air forces and now Biden’s plans for a pier for aid deliveries may look spectacular, but they can have only limited impact. </p>
<p>Air drops are an <a href="https://blogs.hanken.fi/humlog/2023/10/20/humanitarian-air-drops-an-option-of-last-resort/">option of last resort</a>, delivering very few supplies at high cost. Meanwhile, sea transport can handle large volumes at reasonable costs, so opening a sea route would be beneficial. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Joe Biden announces the US will build a temporary pier to allow more aid into Gaza.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But any cargo reaching Gaza on this route would encounter the same issues that are plaguing humanitarian deliveries by road. The Israeli blockade requires strict checks on goods, which in the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240308-eu-commission-chief-hopes-aid-route-from-cyprus-to-gaza-opens-sunday">new maritime channel</a> will be carried out in Cyprus. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-statement-ec-cyprus-uae-us-and-uk-endorsing-activation-maritime-corridor-deliver-humanitarian-2024-03-08_en">joint statement</a>, the European Commission, Cyprus, the UAE, the US, and the UK stressed that “efforts will be closely coordinated with the Government of Israel”.</p>
<p>As humanitarian logistics researchers who have been following the Gaza response of the <a href="https://logcluster.org/en/ops/pse23a">Logistics Cluster</a>, the coordination mechanism of a number of humanitarian agencies, we believe a workable plan for aid logistics in Gaza should include the following points.</p>
<h2>1. Safe access guarantee</h2>
<p>All parties need to agree to ensure the safety of humanitarian convoys. Aid, no matter how it arrives, needs to be distributed to the population. Aid organisations are warning that <a href="https://www.msf.org/attacks-humanitarian-workers-gaza-make-vital-assistance-nearly-impossible">attacks on humanitarian workers</a> make their work nearly impossible. </p>
<p>Aid convoys <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/new-incident-medical-evacuation-al-amal-hospital-marks-unacceptable-security-conditions-humanitarian-aid">have come under fire</a> <a href="https://palestine.un.org/en/259747-food-convoy-waiting-move-northern-gaza-was-hit-israeli-naval-gunfire">from Israel</a> and are denied access to those in need. As a result, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-struck-palestinian-police-escorting-gaza-aid-says-us-envoy-2024-02-16/">Palestinian police</a> have become hesitant to escort aid deliveries. </p>
<p>Receiving aid can also be deadly. In the recent so-called <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/03/un-experts-condemn-flour-massacre-urge-israel-end-campaign-starvation-gaza">“flour massacre”</a>, at least 112 Palestinians died as they gathered to collect basic food aid. <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/unmiss-peacekeepers-provide-protective-escort-to-world-food-programme-convoy">UN peacekeepers</a> should be allowed to provide protective escorts for aid convoys. </p>
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<h2>2. Eliminate bottlenecks</h2>
<p>More entry points into Gaza need to be opened. The planned pier is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/07/biden-us-port-gaza-aid-delivery">step in the right direction</a>, but it will take weeks to be operational. Opening more road crossings would be much faster and alleviate pressure on the <a href="https://logie.logcluster.org/?op=pse">two operational crossings</a>, Rafah and Kerem Shalom. </p>
<p>At the moment, aid deliveries encounter <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/hungers-border-why-aid-trucks-taking-humanitarian-gear-and-food-gaza-face-long-waits">long waits</a> at checkpoints. In Gaza, roads need to be open and any checks on humanitarian workers and their cargo minimised to limit delays. </p>
<p>Trucks being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/food-aid-convoy-bound-for-northern-gaza-looted-after-being-stopped-at-israeli-checkpoint">held for hours</a> at Israeli military checkpoints can mean they don’t reach areas further away from the border crossings and have to turn back. This has resulted in looting by desperate Palestinians.</p>
<h2>3. Access to northern Gaza</h2>
<p>Humanitarian aid has to be delivered to all parts of Gaza, but access to the north has been particularly challenging. Humanitarian operations to the north were <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-access-snapshot-gaza-strip-end-february-2024">halted on February 5</a> after a UN-coordinated food convoy was hit by Israeli naval fire and humanitarian workers reported intimidation by soldiers at an Israeli checkpoint. </p>
<p>Opening a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/03/07/background-press-call-on-humanitarian-aid-for-gaza-ahead-of-the-state-of-the-union/">border crossing</a> giving aid convoys access to the northern part of Gaza is currently being discussed between the USA and Israel. The UN is also exploring the use of an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-test-israeli-military-road-get-aid-gazas-north-2024-03-06/">Israeli military road</a> along the border fence to get aid to the north and checking new potential routes to make sure they are free of unexploded ordnance. </p>
<h2>4. Restricted items</h2>
<p>Not all humanitarian supplies are allowed into Gaza. Items are restricted, especially where Israel is citing concerns about <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/civilians-or-hamas-dual-use-issue-complicates-gaza-aid-efforts-2024-01-05/">potential use by Hamas</a>. Various items, including filtration systems and even sleeping bags, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/01/middleeast/gaza-aid-israel-restrictions-investigation-intl-cmd/index.html">have been blocked</a> while others have been stuck in bureaucratic limbo, waiting weeks for clearance.</p>
<p>Even with clearance, there is no guarantee items will be allowed into Gaza. To scale up humanitarian aid, restrictions have to be lifted. Rules need to be clear and consistent. Allowing sufficient quantities of fuel to enter is critical to operate trucks, hospital equipment and water-purification plants. </p>
<h2>5. Humanitarian visas</h2>
<p>Humanitarian work also requires humanitarian workers. While many are local staff, international personnel are also essential for such a large-scale aid effort. Recently, Israel <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-25/israel-is-denying-visas-to-aid-groups-working-with-palestinians?embedded-checkout=true">has ceased issuing visas</a> for international humanitarian personnel working in the Palestinian territories. </p>
<p>Dozens of international humanitarian workers have left, while some are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/29/humanitarian-workers-face-deportation-from-israel-after-freeze-on-visas">risking deportation</a> by outstaying their visa limits. At least <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-war-hamas-humanitarian-visas-5d306d367e6522495a4ee8045859a3b8">99 humanitarian workers’ visas</a> have either expired or will expire in the next six months. This is impeding endeavours to deliver essential supplies to Gaza.</p>
<h2>6. Commercial trade</h2>
<p>In the longer term, it is both impossible and undesirable to support a population as large as Gaza’s entirely through humanitarian aid. It is important that the movement of goods also includes the resumption of trade to complement the humanitarian response. </p>
<p>Currently, there is very limited <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4737126-us-first-commercial-trucks-enter-gaza-war">commercial traffic</a> across the border. But a functioning local market is paramount for any <a href="https://unctad.org/publication/preliminary-assessment-economic-impact-destruction-gaza-and-prospects-economic-recovery">prospects of economic recovery</a> in Gaza. </p>
<p>A minimum target for trucks entering Gaza every day should be the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/03/gaza-aid-convoy-israel-war/">pre-war average of 500</a>. Given the scale of destruction and destitution, the aim for combined traffic of commercial vehicles as well as those operated by the United Nations and other non-government organisations should now be even higher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US president has ordered a pier to be built so that it can supply aid to Gaza. But it will not be enough.Sarah Schiffling, Deputy Director of the HUMLOG (Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management Research) Institute, Hanken School of EconomicsFoteini Stavropoulou, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Liverpool John Moores UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249132024-03-08T13:35:16Z2024-03-08T13:35:16ZState of the Union: Biden hits back at critics as he warns of threats to democracy at home and overseas<p>President Joe Biden delivered his third annual <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2024/">State of the Union</a> address to a joint session of Congress yesterday. Traditionally, the speech has outlined the state of the nation and announced the government’s policy agenda for the next 12 months. In a move away from tradition, Biden delivered a rousing partisan speech.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the message, delivered in an election year, and so recently after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/06/super-tuesday-key-takeaways">Super Tuesday</a>, when many key states hold presidential primaries, was a clear commencement of Biden’s campaign for re-election to the White House. It presented an ideal opportunity for Biden to promote his successes, address the concerns of American voters and to state his intentions for 2024.</p>
<p>Despite his latest job approval <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">rating</a> standing at just 38.1%, Biden delivered an energetic speech to a packed House whose audience contained not just the members of Congress but also Biden’s cabinet, the Supreme Court justices and special guests.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2024/">opened</a> his speech stating that his purpose was “to both wake up this Congress, and alert the American people” at what he said was “an unprecedented moment” in the history of the United States.</p>
<p>Not since the civil war, he added, has “freedom and democracy been under assault here at home as they are today”. But he added that challenges to democracy and freedom were not just at home, but also overseas.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2024/">warned</a> Israel that “it had a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent victims in Gaza” and reiterated his call for six-week long ceasefire. He also formally announced that the US would be building a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/07/biden-us-port-gaza-aid-delivery">temporary pier</a> in Gaza to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters. He did reassure Americans that “no US boots would be on the ground”.</p>
<p>This must surely have sat well with some of the dissenting voices within his own party. Democrats unhappy with his supportive policy toward Israel had expressed a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/06/uncommitted-vote-israel-ceasefire-super-tuesday">protest vote</a> in the recent Super Tuesday primaries.</p>
<p>He also told Americans that if the US stepped away from supporting Ukraine, it would allow Russia to advance further into Europe. “But Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons it needs to defend itself.”</p>
<p>The president also reassured Nato members that the alliance was stronger than ever and, referencing Sweden’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68506223">recent joining</a> of the alliance, welcomed the Swedish prime minister in the audience.</p>
<p>Biden warned of the potential danger to American democratic institutions – a thinly veiled warning about the potential re-election of his likely opponent former president Donald Trump. Although he never mentioned Trump by name, there were numerous references to his predecessor.</p>
<p>Just as he did <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2023/">last year</a>, Biden offered his hand in partnership with his ideological rivals but railed against those who continued to challenge the legitimacy of his election as they “posed the gravest threat to our democracy since the Civil War” and that the insurrectionists of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56004916">January 6</a> “placed a dagger at the throat of American democracy”.</p>
<p>“My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth of January 6th.” In a further attack on Trump, Biden stated that Trump’s recent supportive comments on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was his predecessor “bowing down to a Russian leader. It’s outrageous. It’s dangerous. It’s unacceptable”.</p>
<p>Further criticism of Trump came in the shape of the former president’s intention to overturn the US Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1102305878/supreme-court-abortion-roe-v-wade-decision-overturn">Roe v Wade</a> decision that had protected abortion rights for American women. Biden called on Congress to ensure that IVF treatment was guaranteed across the nation.</p>
<p>He warned Republicans that failing to do so could lead to a backlash at the next election. “Those bragging about overturning Roe v. Wade have no clue about the power of women in America. They found out though when reproductive freedom was on the ballot and won in 2022, 2023, and they will find out again, in 2024.”</p>
<p>The United States’ southern border, an area that has been the subject of much criticism from the Republican party, also featured significantly. He hailed November’s bipartisan <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/07/us-senate-vote-bipartisan-border-bill">Senate bill</a> that would have allowed his administration to secure the border but criticised Donald Trump and Republicans for not supporting it.</p>
<h2>Biden counters criticism</h2>
<p>The Biden White House has been <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/11/joe-biden-2024-election-post-policy-era/676157/">criticised</a> for not publicising its successes loudly enough in the past. This State of the Union address offered an opportunity for the president to counter some of that criticism.</p>
<p>And he took that opportunity, citing his economic successes as “the greatest comeback story never told”. The US was, he said, “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down, investing in all of America, in all Americans to make sure everyone has a fair shot and we leave no one behind!”</p>
<p>For some inside the Biden administration the address was an opportunity for Biden to reset the campaign and push forward. Representative Robert Garcia of California <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election">suggested</a> it was “important to remind folks what he’s done”.</p>
<p>Representative Annie Kuster of New Hampshire said that the address would affect not just Biden’s future but that of the entire Democratic party. It was, Kuster <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election">said</a>: “The moment to show Democrats are leading and succeeding.”</p>
<p>Initial reactions were that Biden’s message was fiery, with one commentator asking where Sleepy Joe Biden had gone. It was, USA columnist Rex Huppke <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/03/07/biden-state-of-the-union-concerns-age-voters-election/72851433007/">said</a>: “One of the strongest election-year State of the Union speeches’ that he had witnessed.”</p>
<p>Jenna Ben-Yehuda, the executive vice president of the think tank the Atlantic Council, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-the-big-takeaways-from-bidens-no-ordinary-moment-state-of-the-union/#jenna-ben-yahuda">called</a> it “a pep talk for US global leadership — a reminder that freedom and democracy are American values and that the mantle of global leadership remains ours if we are bold enough to seize it”.</p>
<p>CNN’s Kevin Liptak <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/politics/takeaways-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address/index.html">said</a> that Biden had delivered “an energetic speech that was a far cry from some of his more subdued efforts that have concerned supporters”.</p>
<p>Has Biden been effective at conveying his message? Yes, but it depends on whether Americans want to listen to it. Only time and the polls in November will tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224913/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden outlined a plan to build a temporary port to deliver aid to Gaza, and called on Israel to protect innocent victims in Gaza.Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2251582024-03-08T04:01:43Z2024-03-08T04:01:43ZBiden defends immigration policy during State of the Union, blaming Republicans in Congress for refusing to act<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580628/original/file-20240308-24-r50pvr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 7, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-delivers-the-annual-state-of-the-union-news-photo/2059263399?adppopup=true">Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden delivered the annual <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/">State of the Union address</a> on March 7, 2024, casting a wide net on a range of major themes – the economy, abortion rights, threats to democracy, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine – that are preoccupying many Americans heading into the November presidential election.</em></p>
<p><em>The president also addressed massive increases in immigration at the southern border and the political battle in Congress over how to manage it. “We can fight about the border, or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>But while Biden stressed that he wants to overcome political division and take action on immigration and the border, he cautioned that he will not “demonize immigrants,” as he said his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, does.</em> </p>
<p><em>“I will not separate families. I will not ban people from America because of their faith,” Biden said.</em></p>
<p><em>Biden’s speech comes as a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4422273-immigration-overtakes-inflation-top-voter-concern-poll/">rising number of American voters</a> say that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">immigration is the country’s biggest problem</a>.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://gould.usc.edu/faculty/profile/jean-lantz-reisz/">Immigration law scholar Jean Lantz Reisz</a> answers four questions about why immigration has become a top issue for Americans, and the limits of presidential power when it comes to immigration and border security.</em> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Joe Biden stands surrounded by people in formal clothing and smiles. One man holds a cell phone camera close up to his face." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580622/original/file-20240308-21-t103cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden arrives to deliver the State of the Union address at the US Capitol on March 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-deliver-the-state-of-the-news-photo/2067104727?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>1. What is driving all of the attention and concern immigration is receiving?</h2>
<p>The unprecedented number of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border right now has drawn national concern to the U.S. immigration system and the president’s enforcement <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221006083/immigration-border-election-presidential">policies at the border</a>. </p>
<p>Border security has always been part of the immigration debate about how to stop unlawful immigration.</p>
<p>But in this election, the immigration debate is also fueled by images of large groups of migrants crossing a river and crawling through <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-number-migrant-border-crossings-december-2023/">barbed wire fences</a>. There is also news of standoffs between Texas law enforcement and U.S. <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/24/texas-border-wire-supreme-court/">Border Patrol agents</a> and cities like New York and Chicago struggling to handle the influx of arriving migrants. </p>
<p>Republicans blame Biden for not taking action on what they say is an <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-doubles-warnings-migrant-crime-border-speech/story?id=107691336">“invasion”</a> at the U.S. border. Democrats blame Republicans for refusing to pass laws that would give the president the power to stop the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-trump-s-dueling-border-visits-will-encapsulate-a-building-election-clash/ar-BB1j5jKy">flow of migration at the border</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Are Biden’s immigration policies effective?</h2>
<p>Confusion about immigration laws may be the reason people believe that Biden is not implementing effective policies at the border. </p>
<p>The U.S. passed a law in 1952 that gives any person arriving at the border or inside the U.S. the right to apply for asylum and the right to legally stay in the country, even if that person crossed the <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1158&num=0&edition=prelim">border illegally</a>. That law has not changed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/trump-overruled/#immigration">Courts struck down</a> many of former President Donald Trump’s policies that tried to limit immigration. Trump was able to lawfully deport migrants at the border without processing their asylum claims during the COVID-19 pandemic under a public health law <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-is-title-42-and-what-does-it-mean-for-immigration-at-the-southern-border">called Title 42</a>. Biden continued that policy <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-title-42-policy-immigration-what-happens-ending-expiration/">until the legal justification for Title 42</a> – meaning the public health emergency – ended in 2023. </p>
<p>Republicans falsely attribute the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/">surge in undocumented migration</a> to the U.S. over the past three years to something they call Biden’s <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4414432-house-approves-resolution-denouncing-bidens-open-border-policies/">“open border” policy</a>. There is no such policy. </p>
<p>Multiple factors are driving increased migration to the U.S. </p>
<p>More people are leaving dangerous or difficult situations in <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/the-crisis-at-the-border-a-primer-for-confused-americans.html">their countries</a>, and some people have waited to migrate until <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/border-numbers-fy2023">after the COVID-19 pandemic</a> ended. People who smuggle migrants are also <a href="https://thehill.com/campaign-issues/immigration/3576180-human-smugglers-often-target-migrants-with-misinformation-on-social-media-watchdog/">spreading misinformation</a> to migrants about the ability to enter and stay in the U.S. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a black blazer and a black hat as he stands next to a bald white man wearing a green uniform and a white truck that says 'Border Patrol' in green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580236/original/file-20240306-24-y12r2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden walks with Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol, as he visits the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, on Feb. 29, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-walks-with-jason-owens-chief-of-us-news-photo/2041441026?adppopup=true">Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. How much power does the president have over immigration?</h2>
<p>The president’s power regarding immigration is limited to enforcing existing immigration laws. But the president has broad authority over how to enforce those laws. </p>
<p>For example, the president can place every single immigrant unlawfully <a href="https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1103&num=0&edition=prelim">present in the U.S.</a> in deportation proceedings. Because there is not enough money or employees at federal agencies and courts to accomplish that, the president will usually choose to prioritize the deportation of certain immigrants, like those who have committed serious and violent crimes in the U.S. </p>
<p>The federal agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2023/12/29/immigrants-ice-border-deportations-2023/#">deported more than 142,000 immigrants</a> from October 2022 through September 2023, double the number of people it deported the previous fiscal year. </p>
<p>But under current law, the president does not have the power to summarily expel migrants who say they are afraid of returning to their country. The law requires the president to process their claims for asylum. </p>
<p>Biden’s ability to enforce immigration law also depends on a budget approved by Congress. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/29/fact-sheet-impact-of-bipartisan-border-agreement-funding-on-border-operations/">Without congressional approval</a>, the president cannot spend money to build a wall, increase immigration detention facilities’ capacity or send more Border Patrol agents to process undocumented migrants entering the country.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large group of people are seen sitting and standing along a tall brown fence in an empty area of brown dirt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580242/original/file-20240306-18-k0ch8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Migrants arrive at the border between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, to surrender to American Border Patrol agents on March 5, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/groups-of-migrants-of-different-nationalities-arrive-at-the-news-photo/2054049040?adppopup=true">Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. How could Biden address the current immigration problems in this country?</h2>
<p>In early 2024, Republicans in the Senate refused to pass a bill – developed by a bipartisan team of legislators – that would have made it harder to get asylum and given Biden the power to stop <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-biden-border-authority/">taking asylum applications</a> when migrant crossings reached a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">certain number</a>. </p>
<p>During his speech, Biden called this bill the “toughest set of border security reforms we’ve ever seen in this country.”</p>
<p>That bill would have also provided <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/senate-vote-border-bill-aid-02-07-24/h_3263c78238d0d2de96a203fad7fd9e94">more federal money</a> to help immigration agencies and courts quickly review more asylum claims and expedite the asylum process, which remains backlogged with millions of cases, Biden said. Biden said the bipartisan deal would also hire 1,500 more border security agents and officers, as well as 4,300 more asylum officers. </p>
<p>Removing this backlog in immigration courts could mean that some undocumented migrants, who now might wait six to eight years for an asylum hearing, would instead only wait six weeks, Biden said. That means it would be “highly unlikely” migrants would pay a large amount to be smuggled into the country, only to be “kicked out quickly,” Biden said. </p>
<p>“My Republican friends, you owe it to the American people to get this bill done. We need to act,” Biden said. </p>
<p>Biden’s remarks calling for Congress to pass the bill drew jeers from some in the audience. Biden quickly responded, saying that it was a bipartisan effort: “What are you against?” he asked. </p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-weighs-invoking-executive-authority-stage-border-crackdown-212f/">is now considering</a> using section 212(f) of the <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/laws-and-policy/legislation/immigration-and-nationality-act">Immigration and Nationality Act</a> to get more control over immigration. This sweeping law allows the president to temporarily suspend or restrict the entry of all foreigners if their arrival is detrimental to the U.S.</p>
<p>This obscure law gained attention when Trump used it in January 2017 to implement a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">travel ban</a> on foreigners from mainly Muslim countries. The Supreme Court upheld the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/americas/travel-ban-trump-how-it-works.html">travel ban in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>Trump again also signed an executive order in April 2020 that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-immigration-ban-raises-more-questions-answers-here-s-n1188946">blocked foreigners who were seeking lawful permanent residency from entering the country</a> for 60 days, citing this same section of the Immigration and Nationality Act. </p>
<p>Biden did not mention any possible use of section 212(f) during his State of the Union speech. If the president uses this, it would likely be challenged in court. It is not clear that 212(f) would apply to people already in the U.S., and it conflicts with existing asylum law that gives people within the U.S. the right to seek asylum.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A rising number of Americans say that immigration is the country’s biggest problem. Biden called for Congress to pass a bipartisan border and immigration bill during his State of the Union.Jean Lantz Reisz, Clinical Associate Professor of Law, Co-Director, USC Immigration Clinic, University of Southern CaliforniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250472024-03-06T02:04:33Z2024-03-06T02:04:33ZAfter Super Tuesday, exhausted Americans face 8 more months of presidential campaigning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579935/original/file-20240305-28-wuuee4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1072%2C26%2C3342%2C2846&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Campaign volunteers set up signs encouraging people to vote.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Alabama/e953d3d110334cfea6a90b336231b74d/photo">AP Photo/Vasha Hunt</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Now that Super Tuesday is over and the <a href="https://apnews.com/live/super-tuesday-updates-results">Democratic and Republican nominees are all but officially chosen</a>, as everyone expected, voters can turn the page to the general election. </p>
<p>But they’re not excited about it, and they haven’t been for months.</p>
<p>A September 2023 Monmouth University poll showed <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_100223/">no more than 40% of Americans said they were “enthusiastic”</a> for either Biden or Trump to run again. That same month, the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/">Pew Research Center</a> found that 65% of Americans were exhausted with the current state of American politics. In February 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/19/us/politics/trump-resistance-democrats-voters.html">The New York Times</a> said Democrats in particular were burned out by the seemingly endless avalanche of political crises.</p>
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<p>It is not surprising that a rematch of the 2020 election is failing to inspire excitement in the American people. Yet, as a political scientist who studies <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389">citizen engagement</a> and <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/feeling-their-pain-9780197696903">the public’s feelings</a> toward the candidates, I find these trends disturbing. It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise – it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.</p>
<h2>There is another divide in politics</h2>
<p>Most discussions of the current state of the American electorate have understandably focused on political polarization. Democrats and Republicans often <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">express disdain for each other</a>, even when they don’t actually disagree on specific policies for the nation to pursue. </p>
<p>Some of this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/715072">disdain is rooted in identity</a>. For example, people who hold unfavorable attitudes toward African Americans, feminists and other groups associated with the Democratic Party tend to identify more strongly with the Republican Party. People with unfavorable attitudes toward stereotypically Republican groups such as evangelicals and gun owners tend to be stronger Democrats.</p>
<p>From this perspective, Democrats and Republicans are pack animals motivated to protect their group and their group’s interests.</p>
<p>Often overlooked, however, is how the vitriol of modern American politics fuels what political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan call “<a href="https://www.otherdividebook.com/">The Other Divide</a>.” This is the divide between people who engage in politics and those who don’t.</p>
<p>In short, a significant number of Americans don’t talk about politics, whether because they are not interested in politics or are turned off by the negativity. It’s a gradual trend dating back to the 1980s and 1990s that has continued for decades now. This weakens the fabric of democracy, because the only voices that are heard online and in the media are from those who are most willing to speak up. They tend to be the most dissonant and extreme views.</p>
<p>The public discussion about the country’s past, present and future therefore leaves out a wide range of people’s voices. What they might say is hard to know, specifically because they don’t engage in political discussions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An adult stands with a child at a voting booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579916/original/file-20240305-26-s5z3dj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Young people – those of voting age at least – are less likely to see voting as important.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024/1ee5523ecf7441eca7c37e430511fdb0/photo">AP Photo/Michael Dwyer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Young voter disengagement</h2>
<p>Especially troubling to me is the political disillusionment expressed by young people, who are the most likely group in the country to avoid identifying themselves <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/15/voters-declare-independence-political-parties">as members of one party or the other</a>. People who identify themselves as independents – especially if they don’t lean toward one party or the other – are also likely to lack interest in voting.</p>
<p>Having come of age during an era of high polarization, younger people are less likely to idealize politics and the right to vote. In prior research, my colleagues and I found that younger people worldwide were just as interested in politics as older citizens but were <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/citizens-of-the-world-9780197599389?cc=us&lang=en&">less likely to view voting as a civic duty</a>. Protesting or joining an organization offers social benefits to young people – an opportunity to feel like they are part of something bigger. Voting, by contrast, is perceived as a more solitary act. </p>
<p>If younger American voters aren’t excited about the choices on the ballot, they may be more likely not to vote at all.</p>
<p>In a recent survey I conducted in collaboration with <a href="https://ignitenational.org/gen-z-research">IGNITE National</a>, an organization seeking to bolster young women’s engagement in the political process, we asked Gen Z Americans, adults born after 1996, what drove their disillusionment with American politics. Consistently, Gen Z respondents noted that the candidates appearing on the ballot <a href="https://8226836.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/8226836/Gen%20Z%20Voting%20%26%20Political%20Engagement%20Report%202023.pdf">did not look like them</a>, contributing to their feeling of detachment from the political process. </p>
<p>Barack Obama’s race made 2008 a historic election. Hillary Clinton’s gender made 2016 a historic contest as well. By contrast, 2024 features the <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/arts-culture/3744771-here-are-the-oldest-us-presidents-to-ever-hold-office/">two oldest white men</a> to ever seek the presidency, vying for second terms in office.</p>
<p><iframe id="N7JHB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/N7JHB/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Burnout’s effects on democracy</h2>
<p>Americans have many demands on their time. Between work, family and other activities, many struggle to watch or read the news, fact check what they see on social media or engage in productive political discussions. As a result, most of the American public <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300072754/what-americans-know-about-politics-and-why-it-matters/">is largely unaware of key aspects of important issues</a>, and does not pay attention to the parties’ stances on those issues. </p>
<p>This lack of engagement is dangerous for democracy. Voters who cannot evaluate the merits of contrasting policy positions, or who cannot accurately assign blame and give credit for the state of the American economy, will ultimately fall back on cheap cues such as partisanship to make their choices. </p>
<p>Or they may abstain from politics altogether.</p>
<p>The campaign season offers an opportunity for voters who may be open to persuasion to engage in the political process for a short period of time, become sufficiently informed and make their voices heard. Though there are flaws in the many processes of political campaigning, media coverage and community involvement, the bottom line is simple: Deliberative democracy requires an American public that is willing to deliberate. </p>
<p>If Americans are too burned out to engage enthusiastically and provide feedback to political leaders, then there is little hope that any government could truly reflect the will of the people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared McDonald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not just polarization that’s driving voters’ malaise − it’s something else, which carries a stark warning for the health of American democracy.Jared McDonald, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248002024-02-29T17:30:08Z2024-02-29T17:30:08ZUkraine recap: fresh nuclear threats from Putin as France talks of western boots on the ground<p>Another day, another bloodcurdling threat from Vladimir Putin. The Russian president used his annual televised address to warn the west that he was prepared to defend his country, if necessary, by using nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>“They should eventually realise that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” Putin said, clearly referring to plans by some of Ukraine’s allies to supply medium- and long-rage missiles that could strike targets within Russia. “Everything that the west comes up with creates the real threat of a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and thus the destruction of civilisation.”</p>
<p>There has been a discernible sense of urgency about western discussions of Ukraine over the past fortnight. The loss of the town of Avdiivka, a key strategic position close to Donetsk, after weeks of heavy fighting and massive losses on both sides, has set off something of a domino effect in the area. Russia has used the momentum to push the frontlines several miles to the west as part of its winter and spring offensive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ISW map showing the battle lines around Avdiivka and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, February 2024." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578933/original/file-20240229-20-qhu2by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The fall of Avdiivka has allowed Russian troops to shift the battle lines more than five miles to the west.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Institute for the Study of War</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the previous Ukraine recap, we noted that Joe Biden has managed to get his US$95 billion (£75 billion) aid package through the US Senate. But the package still has to pass the House of Representatives, whose speaker, Mike Johnson, has yet to confirm it will even be given a vote. It’s clear from military reports emerging from Ukraine that the lack of ammunition is rapidly becoming an existential crisis.</p>
<p>Putin also probably had in mind the statement by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, at a security conference in Paris on February 26, that while there was as yet “no consensus” among Kyiv’s western allies about committing troops to the defence of Ukraine: “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.”</p>
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<p><em>Since Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine on February 24 2022, The Conversation has called upon some of the leading experts in international security, geopolitics and military tactics to help our readers <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/ukraine-12-months-at-war-134215?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">understand the big issues</a>. You can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Ukraine12Months">subscribe to our fortnightly recap</a> of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.</em></p>
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<p>This drew immediate pushback from most of the Nato leaders assembled at the conference, who raced to distance themselves from Macron’s position. Aside from anything else, there are major question marks about Nato’s ability to wage war in Europe against as formidable an adversary as Russia – which has, over the past two years, transformed into a war economy. </p>
<p>Kenton White, a Nato expert at the University of Reading, believes the increasingly ominous prospect of a confrontation between Nato and Russia will <a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-wont-rule-out-using-western-ground-troops-in-ukraine-but-is-nato-prepared-for-war-with-russia-224086">require a major rethink</a> on the part of the western alliance. Hitherto, he writes, it has prepared to wage “come-as-you-are” wars, which would be fought with existing troops and weapons stocks. </p>
<p>Indeed, it appears such a rethink might already be happening. Nato is engaged in its largest exercises since the cold war – exercises designed specifically around the prospect of a war with a major power such as Russia. As Nato’s most senior military commander, Admiral Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy, said last year: “We need large volumes. The just-in-time, just-enough economy we built together in 30 years in our liberal economies is fine for a lot of things – but not the armed forces when there is a war ongoing.” </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-wont-rule-out-using-western-ground-troops-in-ukraine-but-is-nato-prepared-for-war-with-russia-224086">Macron won't rule out using western ground troops in Ukraine – but is Nato prepared for war with Russia?</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, Stefan Wolff – a regular contributor to our coverage of the conflict over the past two years – struck a sobering note when he wrote that the west’s perceptions of the war had been <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-the-west-is-at-a-crossroads-double-down-on-aid-to-kyiv-accept-a-compromise-deal-or-face-humiliation-by-russia-223747">turned on their head</a> over the past 12-to-18 months by the lack of success of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. While Ukraine was scoring rapid successes on the battlefield in the summer and autumn of 2022, the talk was about finding an “off-ramp” to allow Putin a face-saving way out of an unwinnable war. But now, “increasingly, it’s the west that needs the off-ramp”.</p>
<p>Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham, believes the west faces three choices. The preferable one in Ukraine’s eyes is for Nato to double down on its support, finding a way to ensure Ukraine gets the weapons it needs – not only to defend itself, but to inflict a comprehensive defeat on Russia. </p>
<p>However, talk is increasingly focusing on the second option – providing enough support to Ukraine to defend the territory it still has, which would involve making territorial concessions to Russia. The third, a comprehensive defeat of Ukraine, would have far-reaching consequences – none of them good.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-the-west-is-at-a-crossroads-double-down-on-aid-to-kyiv-accept-a-compromise-deal-or-face-humiliation-by-russia-223747">Ukraine war: the west is at a crossroads – double down on aid to Kyiv, accept a compromise deal, or face humiliation by Russia</a>
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<h2>Watching the war from space</h2>
<p>A feature of this war has been the way that thinktanks and analysts such as the Institute for the Study of War (whose maps we use in these regular updates) are able to pinpoint movements on the battlefield with such accuracy. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a pair of satellite views showing the same section of a city, one with intact buildings and green space and the other damaged or destroyed buildings and charred earth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577455/original/file-20240222-26-fyycrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=952&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Satellite photography like these ‘before’ and ‘after’ images can provide a visceral sense of the destruction in the war in Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/maxar-satellite-imagery-comparing-the-before-after-news-photo/1255499859">Satellite image (c) 2023 Maxar Technologies via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Sylvain Barbot and his team from USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences in the US, have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-at-2-years-destruction-seen-from-space-via-radar-223275">using open-source data</a> in order to analyse the development of the war from space. It has enabled them to build accurate before-and-after images of cities where the fighting has been fiercest, highlighting just how destructive the conflict has been.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-at-2-years-destruction-seen-from-space-via-radar-223275">War in Ukraine at 2 years: Destruction seen from space – via radar</a>
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<h2>Russia’s economic transformation</h2>
<p>Considering the regime of sanctions imposed by the west, Russia’s successful retooling of its economy to put it firmly on a war footing is nothing short of remarkable. This echoes a similar transformation achieved by Soviet Russia during the second world war – something that changed the course of the conflict, swaying it in favour of the Allies. </p>
<p>Now Russia’s economy is completely dedicated to winning the war in Ukraine – and this is the main thing driving the country’s economic growth. Renaud Foucart, an economist at Lancaster University, says that while this has kept Russia in the war and is arguably giving it the upper hand at present, it also means Russia <a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-now-completely-driven-by-the-war-in-ukraine-it-cannot-afford-to-lose-but-nor-can-it-afford-to-win-221333">can’t afford to win</a>, as any attempt to transform back would be too costly.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-now-completely-driven-by-the-war-in-ukraine-it-cannot-afford-to-lose-but-nor-can-it-afford-to-win-221333">Russia's economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win</a>
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<h2>Alexei Navalny and the Russian opposition</h2>
<p>For those of us who had been following the fate of Russian opposition figurehead Alexei Navalny, the news of his death in a prison camp in the Russian Arctic had a certain sad inevitability to it. Navalny flew back to Russia in January 2021 after recovering from being poisoned with Novichok on a flight across Siberia the previous year. No sooner had he and his wife, Yulia Navalnaya, disembarked from the flight to Moscow than he was detained, tried and sentenced.</p>
<p>Navalny spent the last three years being shunted to ever more unpleasant prisons across Russia, appearing every so often – usually via video link – to be sentenced to further prison time on spurious charge after spurious charge. Alexander Titov from Queen’s University Belfast <a href="https://theconversation.com/alexei-navalny-reported-death-of-putins-most-prominent-opponent-spells-the-end-of-politics-in-russia-223766">charts Navalny’s courageous career</a> – he was perhaps the biggest remaining thorn in Putin’s side.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/alexei-navalny-reported-death-of-putins-most-prominent-opponent-spells-the-end-of-politics-in-russia-223766">Alexei Navalny: reported death of Putin's most prominent opponent spells the end of politics in Russia</a>
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<p>So, where does Navalny’s death leave the opposition to Putin in Russia? According to Stephen Hall, who researches authoritarian regimes at the University of Bath, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated-224303">depressing answer</a> is that most opposition leaders are now either dead or in jail. Showing enormous strength, Yulia Navalnaya appeared at the Munich Security Conference hours after the news of her husband’s death had broken, to pledge to continue his work.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Keep on fighting’: Yulia Navalnaya vows to carry on her husband’s work after his death in a Russian prison camp, February 2024.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Other than Navalnaya, perhaps the most effective opposition to the Russian president and the war in Ukraine will be the wives and mothers of the troops. If casualties continue to mount – and especially if the Russian military starts to suffer the same sort of setbacks as it experienced in late 2022 – then their voices can only gain in resonance, Hall argues.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated-224303">In Putin's Russia, the death of Navalny has left the opposition demoralised but not defeated</a>
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<p><em>Ukraine Recap is available as a fortnightly email newsletter. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/ukraine-recap-114?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+Newsletter+Ukraine+Recap+2022+Mar&utm_content=WeeklyRecapBottom">Click here to get our recaps directly in your inbox.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224800/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A selection of our coverage of the conflict from the past fortnight.Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247642024-02-29T12:55:31Z2024-02-29T12:55:31ZWhat is Netanyahu’s plan for a post-conflict Gaza and does it rule out a workable ceasefire? Expert Q&A<p><em>In recent days Joe Biden has been promising that a deal for a ceasefire is very close to agreement. But at the same time the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has revealed his vision for Gaza once the fighting stops, which appears to rule out Palestinian sovereignty on the strip. We spoke with John Strawson, a Middle East expert at the University of East London, who has been researching and publishing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for several decades.</em></p>
<p><strong>After weeks of wrangling, Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has published his vision for a post-conflict Gaza. How compatible is it with the idea of a two-state solution? To what extent is his tough line influenced by the more hawkish members of his government who take a hardline attitude to Palestinian sovereignty?</strong></p>
<p>Netanyahu’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/27/post-war-gaza-plan-netanyahu-israel-day-after-future-abbas/">plan for a post-war Gaza</a> is simply not practical and does not rise to the political challenges of the times. It is based on two principles: Israeli security control over Gaza and a civil administration run by non-Hamas officials. </p>
<p>But there has been Israeli security control over Gaza in one form since 1967 and it has not brought security for either Israel or Palestinians. There is no reason to think that the Israel Defense Forces can do better now, especially after this catastrophic war. At the same time, it is difficult to see where the non-Hamas Palestinian officials will come from. Hamas has had a tight grip of Gaza since 2007 and anyone with any experience of administration is likely to be a member of Hamas, a sympathiser or someone used to working with Hamas. </p>
<p>While there is opposition to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, there is little organised political opposition that could replace them. Like the US and Britain in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, when they <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/oct/29/usa.iraq">banned officials from the Ba'athist party</a> from the administration, chaos will follow. The only realistic option is to extend the power of the Palestinian Authority – presently <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/11/what-is-the-palestinian-authority-and-how-is-it-viewed-by-palestinians">based in Ramallah</a> – into Gaza. But Netanyahu and his <a href="https://theconversation.com/israeli-elections-benjamin-netanhayu-set-to-return-with-some-extreme-new-partners-193814">far-right allies</a> think it will advance pressure for a two-state solution – something they are opposed to. </p>
<p><strong>To what extent is this a starting point for Netanyahu? Has he left himself the political space to manoeuvre given pressure from the US and other international allies?</strong></p>
<p>The plan was provided mainly due to international pressure – especially by the Americans. It should be noted that the US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, has been raising the issue of post-conflict Gaza with the Israelis since November and it still took months to produce this flimsy document. </p>
<p>This gives us an insight into how difficult it is in practice for the US administration to use its apparent power over the Israeli government. Netanyahu has much experience of dealing with American politicians and plays the system very well. He knows that Biden needs a calmer Middle East as a background to his re-election bid in November. As a result, the bargaining relationship is quite complex. </p>
<p>Netanyahu clearly thinks he has time on his side. The nearer it gets to the US election the more difficult it gets for Biden to please the progressive Democrats who want a ceasefire and the more traditional Democrats who have Israel’s back. What Netanyahu is doing is the minimum in the hope of hanging on hoping for a Trump win. </p>
<p><strong>Does Netanyahu’s vision reflect the feelings of the Jewish community in Israel? What about Arab voters? The prime minister appears deeply unpopular among most voter groups – is his intransigence more about maintaining his hold on power than on seeking a workable long term solution?</strong></p>
<p>While Netanyahu is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-15-israelis-want-netanyahu-keep-job-after-gaza-war-poll-finds-2024-01-02/">deeply unpopular</a> with all sections of the Israeli public, we have to be careful in reading the public mood on policies for a post-war dispensation. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/opinion/israel-hostage-negotiations-entebbe.html">Polling suggests</a> that support for a two-state solution is declining. Israelis have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-blaming-israel-for-october-7-hamas-attack-makes-peace-less-not-more-likely-223934">so traumatised by October 7</a> that there is little support for Palestinian empowerment. </p>
<p>To some extent this is the result of the way that the Israelis view their country’s disengagement from Gaza in 2005. It is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-decade-later-israelis-see-gaza-pullout-as-big-mistake/2015/08/14/21c06518-3480-11e5-b835-61ddaa99c73e_story.html">often presented</a> as an example of what happens when Israel ceases to occupy Palestinian land. In this account Israel leaves Gaza and Gaza becomes an armed encampment with the aim of destroying Israel – and indeed this <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67039975">remains Hamas’s policy</a>, despite the group releasing an <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/doctrine-hamas">amended charter in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>But the 2005 disengagement which included dismantling all Israeli settlements in the strip was not the result of negotiations, but a unilateral act. The then prime minister, Ariel Sharon, did not want to hand over power to the elected Palestinian Authority, thinking it would boost the PA’s for statehood. Instead, Israel just left – and that allowed Hamas, the major political force in Gaza, to claim that Israel has <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/45870/chapter-abstract/400820054?redirectedFrom=fulltext">“retreated under fire”</a>. Hamas then capitalised on the situation and went on to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/jan/26/israel1">win the Palestinian legislative</a> elections in 2006. </p>
<p>The lesson of this is that Israel needs proper negotiations that can lead to a sustainable future – and that can only mean a Palestinian state alongside Israel. That is not merely right for the Palestinians but essential in any plan to defeat Hamas. It’s not only a military operation but a political one and Palestinians need to be offered a peaceful and just alternative.</p>
<p><strong>The US president, Joe Biden, has been talking up the idea of a ceasefire deal in recent days. But Netanyahu’s plan seems to make the deal brokered in Qatar an impossibility. Is Netanyahu serious about bringing an end to the conflict? Or is talk about a possible deal more about Israel’s need to be seen to be playing the game as well as optimism from a US president who needs to be able to show to his own voter base that he is getting results?</strong></p>
<p>Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert argues that Netanyahu is <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-02-22/ty-article-opinion/.premium/netanyahus-messianic-coalition-partners-want-an-all-out-regional-war/0000018d-d237-d06c-abbd-daf733870000">dragging Israel into a long term war</a> to save himself. Olmert draws some drastic conclusions from his analysis suggesting that Netanyahu and his far-right allies want a permanent war that would also see Palestinians driven out of the West Bank. That might seem too apocalyptic – but it does convey a sense of the mismatch between US aims and the Israeli political dynamic.</p>
<p>Talks are going on simultaneously in Qatar, in Paris and in Cairo. It is evident that the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/what-we-know-so-far-about-the-draft-israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal#:%7E:text=It%20envisions%20a%2040%2Dday,and%20fuel%20to%20start%20rebuilding.">formula for a 40-day ceasefire</a> has been agreed but there is now <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-palestinian-prisoners-will-be-a-key-condition-of-any-ceasefire-deal-heres-why-224700">wrangling over the details</a>. Much of this focuses on the grizzly trading over how many Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged for which Israeli hostages – both those still alive and those dead. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gaza-war-palestinian-prisoners-will-be-a-key-condition-of-any-ceasefire-deal-heres-why-224700">Gaza war: Palestinian prisoners will be a key condition of any ceasefire deal – here's why</a>
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<p>What is quite clear is that both Israel and Hamas have been dragging their feet as each thinks it is gaining the advantage by continuing the fighting. But with the arrival of the month of Ramadan (beginning March 10 – the date that Israel <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68334510">plans to begin</a> its ground assault on the city of Rafah) there is some likelihood of a Ramadan truce. </p>
<p>Netanyahu is under <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/19/pressure-building-netanyahu-hostages-hamas-israel">massive popular pressure</a> in Israel to move on the hostages even if that means painful concessions. Hamas is also under pressure by the masses of displaced Gazans who just want a semblance of a bearable existence for their families. So while Washington is exerting maximum pressure on Israel and its Arab allies, it is likely to be factors in Israel and Gaza that will lead to at least a temporary ceasefire. The challenge will then be to use the time to produce something permanent. </p>
<p><strong>Is it even feasible for the Israeli government to continue with its policy of refusing to deal with Hamas?</strong></p>
<p>In effect Israel has been dealing with Hamas indirectly all along. If the Israeli war aims were being successful it would not have to be negotiating with them over the hostage release issue. But I think that it’s now no longer possible for Israel to talk to Hamas politically. In 2009 I thought <a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/author/michael-walzer-john-strawson-ghada-karmi-donna-rob/">it was still possible</a> At the time it seemed possible that Hamas and Israel could agree a <em>Hudna</em>, an Islamic legal term for a long-term truce. But October 7 and subsequent Hamas statements and actions show that its real policy is the annihilation of Israel. So there is nothing to speak about. The real question is Israel speaking to the Palestinian Authority and having a viable plan for Gaza after the war rather than a renewed occupation. </p>
<p>The key to the next stage is to create a security mechanism that can replace the IDF and ensure the security of both Israel <em>and</em> the Palestinians. The international community – in particular the UN – has to stop being rhetorical and start being practical about peacemaking. What is needed is a security force that will give both Israelis and Palestinians confidence that the situation will change. Both sides must be able to feel secure – no more atrocities like October 7 and the Israeli response which has now killed 30,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians – and a high proportion of which have been women and children. </p>
<p>What is required is a multinational force that combines Arab League and Nato forces under perhaps Saudi command. Unless there is movement on this issue, there is little chance of a framework where any meaningful talks can take place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Strawson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>John Strawson, a UK-based researcher of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, answers questions about the Israeli prime minister’s plan for Gaza.John Strawson, Emeritus professor of Law, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.