tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/malaysia-3415/articlesMalaysia – The Conversation2024-03-08T11:34:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252922024-03-08T11:34:27Z2024-03-08T11:34:27ZFlight MH370 is still missing after ten years – forensic experts explain what we know and why we haven’t found the plane<p>It has been ten years since Malaysian airlines flight MH370, carrying 239 passengers and crew on board, disappeared less than one hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur on 8 March 2014. It has become one of the great unsolved mysteries of modern times and is a puzzle that has remained resolutely unsolved. </p>
<p>Theories abound on the flight’s disappearance and current location of the wreckage. Unusually, all communications aboard the plane were switched off shortly after take-off. </p>
<p>Intermittent satellite location information subsequently suggested <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/inmarsat-releases-data-showing-mh370-definitely-went-south.html">it was flown south on a very different flight path</a> than expected, to a remote and deep ocean area of the Southern Indian Ocean before contact was lost.</p>
<p>When actively searching for MH370, sophisticated international surveillance aircraft initially conducted over 300 flights to visually look for plane debris on the surface. Then surface and submersible vehicles conducted further surveys, searching over 120,000 sq km of ocean before ending the search in 2017. </p>
<p>The effort to find MH370 became one of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10863605/MH370-search-becomes-most-expensive-aviation-hunt-in-history-yet-still-no-clues.html">most expensive aviation searches in history</a>. These surveys used both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonar">sonar</a> (active acoustic instruments to image the sea floor to locate the aircraft), and also listening devices to pick up the aircraft’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_recorder">flight data recorder</a>. </p>
<p>Confirmed MH370 plane debris were found on Reunion Island in July 2015, and off the coast of Mozambique in February 2016, which was consistent with what we know about ocean currents. In 2018, OceanInfinity, a private exploration company, <a href="https://oceaninfinity.com/ocean-infinity-to-continue-search-for-missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh370/">also searched 25,000 sq km</a> but without success.</p>
<p>Since then, a mixture of highly trained experts and members of the public have sought to assist the <a href="https://www.mh370search.com/">search</a>. These efforts have varied from simple to really advanced data analysis. They have attempted to map the locations and timings of plane debris, and other maritime debris, as well as model drift currents. In doing so, they are attempting to reconstruct where these may have originated from, which is no small task. </p>
<p>Analysis of the MH370 flight path has been pieced together from two different types of radar – primary and secondary – as well as the intermittent data “pings” from the plane to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inmarsat">Inmarsat</a> satellite. The results suggest that it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870467">diverted south from its intended flight path</a>.</p>
<p>Another technique called weak signal propagation (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software)">WSPR</a> data (a way of using radio emission to track objects such as planes), had defined a specific but very large search area, some of which has already been searched.</p>
<p>Available hydroacoustic data (based on the way sound propagates in water) of the sea floor has also been analysed. However, only a relatively small area was covered and the marine sea floor in this region can be very rugged. There are deep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966112200163X">submarine canyons</a> that can hide objects much bigger than a plane. </p>
<p>Lessons from studying past flight disasters also informed the search. These included the 2009 Yemenia plane crash in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<h2>Recovery operation</h2>
<p>For inland or coastal water searches, a phased investigation strategy is suggested as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.04.012">best practice</a>, where investigators look to identify water depths, major current strengths and directions, together with pre-existing site information, before specialist search teams are employed using methods, equipment configurations and personnel that have all been accredited.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-science-is-helping-the-police-search-for-bodies-in-water-73931">How science is helping the police search for bodies in water</a>
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<p>However this reliance on technology can be problematic. Even in small waterways, the presence of vegetation in the search area or a target buried by sediment can make these searches difficult.</p>
<p>Much of the Southern Indian Ocean sea floor is rugged and relatively unmapped, with <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/deepest-points-of-the-indian-ocean-and-southern-ocean-revealed/">water depths of up to 7.4km</a>. It’s away from regular shipping lanes and commercial flight patterns, with few fishing boats, no significant land masses and some of the worst winds and weather in the world. These factors also make it a very challenging area to search. </p>
<p>In deep water (more than 2km to 3km) deploying sonar is cumbersome and prohibitively expensive. It also takes a long time to generate data. A major challenge for scanning technologies is achieving accuracy at these kinds of depths due to the scattering of the signal caused by uneven, especially rocky substrates on the sea floor.</p>
<p>The development of more advanced autonomous submersible vehicles may hold the
key to finding MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean, along with post-processing of
raw data which can clarify what can be attributed to rocks as well as sea-floor
hummocks and pockets. </p>
<p>This can distinguish between the sea floor and the objects being searched for. However, the area where MH370 disappeared is vast, meaning future searches will remain just as challenging as when the plane first went missing in 2014.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pringle receives funding from the HLF, the Nuffield Foundation, Royal Society, NERC, EPSRC and EU Horizon2020. He is affiliated with the Geological Society of London. Jamie works for Keele University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alastair Ruffell receives funding from: ProjectBoost (IntertradeIreland); Arts & Humanities Research Council; Natural Environment Research Council; Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Morgan has received funding from the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.</span></em></p>Despite advanced technology and search techniques the rugged seafloor can hide objects much larger than a plane.Jamie Pringle, Reader in Forensic Geoscience, Keele UniversityAlastair Ruffell, Reader, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University BelfastRuth Morgan, Vice Dean Engineering (Interdisciplinarity Entrepreneurship), Professor of Crime and Forensic Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219362024-03-01T13:34:06Z2024-03-01T13:34:06ZMy Malaysia ordeal shows how religion can fuse with populist nationalism to silence dissent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578729/original/file-20240228-16-yogbdr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C119%2C5720%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malaysian Islamists rally in favor of sharia law on Nov. 20, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/malaysia-islamist-party-supporters-held-a-rally-to-protect-news-photo/1793715130?adppopup=true">Zahim Mohd/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>I hadn’t expected my book tour in Malaysia to end with a confrontation with men who identified themselves as police in a Kuala Lumpur airport.</p>
<p>I arrived in the Muslim-majority country in early January 2024 to promote <a href="https://bookshop.irfront.net/product/islam-autoritarianisme-dan-kemunduran-bangsa-suatu-perbandingan-global-dan-pensejarahan/">the Malay translation</a> of my book “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/islam-authoritarianism-and-underdevelopment-global-and-historical-comparison?format=PB">Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment</a>,” an academic analysis of the political and socioeconomic crises facing many Muslim societies today.</p>
<p>But my visit attracted unwarranted <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/692340">attention</a>. Some conservatives and Islamists labeled me in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/share/p/osCx6x9uHoeziJ7a/?mibextid=I6gGtw">social media</a> a “<a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/22/im-a-practising-muslim-and-oppose-secularism-says-academic/">liberal</a>” – a term used by <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2015/01/18/doubting-religious-authorities-part-of-liberalism-jakim-dg-says/821833">Malaysia’s federal agency</a> administering Islamic affairs to denote those against the official religion, Sunni Islam. This was followed by <a href="https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/480031">the cancellation</a> of my book launch <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/06/book-launch-by-us-academic-cancelled-after-pressure-from-conservatives/">event</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, I continued my program of other talks. Two men who identified themselves as <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693049">police officers came</a> to my last event and questioned my publisher.</p>
<p>The following day, the same men <a href="https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02qwLXFcVopg33CF879Ri9av8AJ9GvGQzbqZqcBF3Gi9jgZqSsmEM19kewCoUkAD4ul&id=100012201094873">interrogated me and tried to seize my passport</a> in Kuala Lumpur International Airport as I was due to embark on a flight to Pakistan. Concerned over my safety, I canceled a series of talks planned for <a href="https://thefridaytimes.com/11-Jan-2024/thinkfest-2024-set-to-bring-dynamic-lineup-of-academics-and-thought-leaders-to-lahore">Lahore</a> and Islamabad and returned home to the United States.</p>
<p>When the incident became <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-scholar-claims-he-feared-arrest-at-klia/">national news</a>, <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-police-commission-ipcc-misconduct-4050961">Malaysia’s</a> police inspector-general <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/11/us-based-academic-not-on-police-radar-says-igp/">denied that officers were sent to confront me</a>. Yet, a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=685001657151111&id=100069238491031&paipv=0&eav=AfYy1uNmtR1OBKb9QhQJU0WcL8AMkNYPwJM-g8bNXTmx3MHzysTnZX362yo7MfSNK14&_rdr">human rights group</a> has called for a <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/14/ask-igp-to-name-cop-who-approached-scholar-at-klia-ngo-tells-ipcc">more thorough investigation</a> into <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/693137">my case</a>.</p>
<p>As a scholar of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/secularism-and-state-policies-toward-religion/10F825409B3B7E7C3B35C443B1B6FF17">religion and politics in comparative perspective</a>, I don’t see my ordeal as an isolated example of religious intolerance in Muslim-majority countries. Instead, it taps into something wider.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw8QL6elUSI&t=17s">My research</a> shows that there is a rising <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0w4DikCK4Y&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=31">global trend</a> against dissenting and minority religious views. Analyzing this trend is crucial to understand why right-wing populist leaders are now ruling diverse countries, such as <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/religion-nationalism-and-populism-turkey-under-akp">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-05-18/putin-appeals-to-russian-church-as-dangers-to-his-regime-grow">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/28/israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-democracy-protests-donald-trump">Israel</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/world/canada/modi-canada-hindu-nationalism.html">India</a>, and how they may come to power in other places, including <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/donald-trump-allies-christian-nationalism-00142086">the United States</a>. </p>
<p>All these countries have recently experienced the combination of three movements: religious conservatism, nationalism and populism.</p>
<h2>Religion and nationalism: Old enemies, new allies</h2>
<p>In both Christian and Muslim history, nationalism emerged in reaction to the religious establishment. Scholars of nationalism such as <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/1126-imagined-communities">Benedict Anderson</a> explain its origins in Europe after the 16th century by the expansion of vernacular languages, national churches and nation-states at the expense of Latin, the Vatican and divinely ordained dynasties. </p>
<p>Similarly, in many Muslim-majority countries, there was a tension between <a href="https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-secularism-in-the-arab-world.html">Islamists and nationalists</a>. The Islamists pushed for traditional religious education and Islamic law, and emphasized global Islamic identity. Nationalists, however, modernized schools, established secular laws and stressed national identity.</p>
<p>This tension continued throughout the 20th century in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7312/kuru15932">Turkey</a>, where nationalists led by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1ch7679">Mustafa Kemal Ataturk</a> founded a secular republic in the 1920s. There was a similar struggle in Egypt between the Islamist <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-two-islamic-groups-fell-from-power-to-persecution-egypts-muslim-brotherhood-and-turkeys-gulenists-120800">Muslim Brotherhood</a> and the nationalist military officers who built the republic under the leadership of secularist <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvc7728b">Gamal Abdel Nasser</a> in the 1950s.</p>
<p>Today, however, religious and nationalist forces are often political allies. For a decade, such an alliance has existed in Russia between the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/9/far-from-harmless-patriarch-kirill-backs-putins-war-but-at-what-cost">Orthodox Patriarch Kirill and President Vladimir Putin</a>. Laws punishing <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prosecuting-insults-to-religious-feelings/28678284.html#">insults to religious feelings</a> have been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-22090308">expanded</a>, and <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2017/04/14/patriarch-kirill-from-ambitious-reformer-to-state-hardliner-a57725">Orthodox Christian values</a> returned to school curricula.</p>
<p>Analysts define <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/18/world/europe/ukraine-war-russian-orthodox-church.html">Kirill’s strong support</a> for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a reflection of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-03-29/russian-orthodox-patriarch-offers-a-spiritual-defense-of-the-war-in-ukraine">the nationalist ideology they share</a>.</p>
<p>In Turkey, the main religious authority is <a href="https://www.diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/Home/Index/">Diyanet</a>, a government agency that controls mosques and pays the salaries of their imams. Although the Diyanet <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/CATS_Working_Paper_Nr_2__Guenter_Seufert.pdf">was established by Ataturk</a> to serve secular nationalist policies, it has become <a href="https://360info.org/how-religion-still-means-power-in-secular-turkey/">an important pillar</a> of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which mixes Islamism with nationalism. While Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party represents Islamism, its coalition partner for a decade, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/16/in-turkeys-elections-nationalism-is-the-real-winner">Nationalist Action Party</a>, has an explicitly nationalist agenda. </p>
<p>In the Arab world, there was a wrangling between Nasser’s secular nationalist Egypt and the Islamic state of Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/29/opinion/international/nasr-islamic-comrades-no-more.html">in the 1950s and 1960s</a>. No longer. Egypt, which has moved to Islamism with a constitution referring to sharia <a href="https://blog-iacl-aidc.org/2021-posts/29-6-21-the-egyptian-supreme-constitutional-courts-interpretation-of-the-islamic-sharia-as-a-constitutional-check-mrbng">as the source of law since 1980</a>, and Saudi Arabia, which has recently become <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mbs-behind-saudi-nationalist-surge-by-bernard-haykel-2023-09">less Islamist and more nationalist</a> through Crown Prince <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2020/05/05/the-new-populist-nationalism-in-saudi-arabia-imagined-utopia-by-royal-decree/">Mohammed bin Salman</a>’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HfRhfHwUc&t=744s">reforms</a>, are now <a href="https://apnews.com/article/egypt-saudi-arabia-sissi-bin-salman-economy-0ae05c6dbe715433015db07ef97519bb">regional allies</a>.</p>
<h2>The age of populist leaders</h2>
<p>What explains this transformation in the relationship between religion and nationalism? I believe that populism is the glue that brings them together.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/populism-concept-defines-our-age">Populists</a> often claim that they are defending “the people” against both elites and minorities, especially immigrants.</p>
<p>Recently, populist nationalist leaders have used religious symbols to mobilize their followers. For example, in 2016, <a href="https://unherd.com/2022/02/putins-spiritual-destiny/">Putin</a> established an <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/in-political-move-russian-patriarch-blesses-putin-backed-paris-church/a-36633675">Orthodox Cathedral in Paris</a> on the banks of the Seine River, near the Eiffel Tower. And in 2020, Erdogan declared the <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/hagia-sophia-islamism-and-secularism-in-turkey">Hagia Sophia a mosque again</a> – it had been a church for over a millennium until the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul in 1453 and a mosque for about 500 years until Ataturk made it a museum.</p>
<p>Most recently, on Jan. 22, 2024, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/22/modi-inaugurates-hindu-temple-on-site-of-razed-mosque-in-india">a Hindu temple in Ayodhya</a> on the site of a mosque that had been built in 1528 but <a href="https://thewire.in/communalism/babri-masjid-the-timeline-of-a-demolition">violently destroyed</a> in 1992 by Hindu radicals, after a century of controversies over the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man walks in a white robe in front of people dressed in orange and a temple." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579083/original/file-20240301-24-vl5dty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opens a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndiaElectionTemple/d3dde6bfe9034a4da87c29bfc954b254/photo?Query=Modi%20temple&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=424&currentItemNo=46">AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And while former U.S. President Donald Trump did not establish a cathedral, he did give a photo-op holding up <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/06/the-inconceivable-strangeness-of-trumps-bible-photo-op.html">a Bible at a crucial moment</a> – during the Black Lives Matter protests in June 2020 – as a sign of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/us/politics/trump-holds-bible-photo.html">his religious politics against the protesters</a>.</p>
<p>In such acts, populist leaders aim to incorporate religion and nationalism to serve their political agenda. Yet, for religious minorities, this symbolism may imply that they are secondary citizens.</p>
<h2>The future of religious minorities</h2>
<p>In several countries, the alliances between religious forces and populist nationalists have threatened <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYDUnk5RSj4&list=PLtoVEQO2iwNtOymVhfS9pMeP5z7WrYTFz&index=8&t=263s">minority rights</a>.</p>
<p>One such case is <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bbb229a29f2cc31b47fa99c/t/5c862a2053450a49a40c191d/1552296484138/Malaysia-Freedom-of-religion-brief-Advocacy-Analysis-brief-2019-ENG.pdf">Malaysia</a>, an <a href="https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/key-findings-population-and-housing-census-of-malaysia-2020-administrative-district">ethnically and religiously diverse</a> country, where Muslim Malays are the majority, while Buddhist, Christian and Hindu communities constitute a third of society.</p>
<p>As I learned during my recent visit, Islam is at the center of political debates about nationalism in Malaysia. For example, on Jan. 13, 2024, Mahathir Mohamad, the once powerful former prime minister, said ethnically Chinese and Indian citizens of Malaysia are not fully “<a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1000806/tun-m-believes-malaysian-indians-chinese-not-completely-loyal-country">loyal to the country</a>” and offered <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/693114">assimilation</a> as a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1001858/anwar-dr-mahathir-all-non-malays-are-disloyal-except-his-cronies">solution</a>.</p>
<p>Assimilation of ethnic minorities into the majority may not be limited by language and culture, because the country’s constitution connects Islam and the Malay identity, stating: “<a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Malaysia_2007">Malay means a person who professes the religion of Islam</a>, habitually speaks the Malay language, conforms to Malay custom.” </p>
<p>For Malays and converts, leaving Islam officially is not an option – both <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/02/27/sarawak-shariah-court-can-hear-apostasy-cases-rules-apex-court/">civil courts</a> and <a href="https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/07/24/judicial-review-needed-as-shariah-court-dismissal-of-womans-apostasy-bid-irrational-appellate-court-told/81473">sharia courts</a> have rejected that in various cases.</p>
<p>The strong connection between <a href="https://fulcrum.sg/islamisation-in-malaysia-beyond-umno-and-pas/">religion and Malay nationalism</a> has helped Islamic authorities, such as <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/08/27/sis-fails-to-quash-selangor-fatwa/">sharia courts</a> and <a href="https://southeastasiaglobe.com/moral-policing-a-rise-in-state-religious-enforcement-is-shaking-multicultural-malaysia/">sharia police</a>, expand their influence. <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/the-rise-and-rise-of-malaysias-nationalist-right-wing/">Increasing Islamization</a> of Malaysian government, however, is <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-s-pas-has-tough-task-to-woo-non-muslim-voters-analysts-say">a worry for non-Muslim minorities</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Muslim minorities are worried about their rights in several non-Muslim countries ruled by populist nationalists.</p>
<p>According to democracy watchdog Freedom House, in India, Modi’s government has pursued <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/country/india/freedom-world/2023">discriminatory policies against the Muslim minority</a> of about <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/india-muslims-marginalized-population-bjp-modi">200 million people</a>. These policies have included <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/02/india-authorities-must-immediately-stop-unjust-targeted-demolition-of-muslim-properties/">the destruction</a> of <a href="https://scroll.in/bulletins/340/introducing-the-smart-shopper-get-deals-on-150000-brands-and-support-independent-journalism">Muslim properties</a> to the extent that bulldozers became “<a href="https://time.com/6303571/how-bulldozers-became-a-symbol-of-anti-muslim-sentiment-in-india/">Hindu-nationalist</a>” and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/nyregion/bulldozer-indian-parade-new-jersey.html">“anti-Muslim” symbols in India</a>.</p>
<p>In the United States, Trump’s anti-immigrant policies included the so-called “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org.uk/licence-discriminate-trumps-muslim-refugee-ban">Muslim ban</a>” – <a href="https://www.aclu.org/news/immigrants-rights/the-enduring-harms-of-trumps-muslim-ban">an executive order</a> that barred nationals of certain Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States. While campaigning for the upcoming 2024 elections, Trump <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-bring-back-travel-ban-muslim-countries/">vowed to bring back the ban in an expanded manner</a>.</p>
<p>As the experience of many countries around the world shows, the trend of advancing a religious-nationalist agenda restricts minority voices. This trend constitutes a major challenge to the ideals of democracy and equality of citizens worldwide.</p>
<p>These concerns are also personal for me: As a Muslim American, I want to both keep enjoying equal citizenship in the United States and give talks about Islam in Muslim-majority countries without being harassed by the police.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ahmet T. Kuru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Religion and nationalism were once ideologies at odds. Now, they are increasingly bedfellows, with populism often the glue.Ahmet T. Kuru, Professor of Political Science, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2179602023-12-13T13:35:56Z2023-12-13T13:35:56ZGrowth of autocracies will expand Chinese global influence via Belt and Road Initiative as it enters second decade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564937/original/file-20231211-23-i4omvy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Xi Jinping shakes hands with Chinese construction workers at a Belt and Road Initiative site in Trinidad and Tobago in June 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chinas-president-xi-jinping-shake-hands-with-chinese-news-photo/169793922">Frederic Dubray/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China currently faces <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/18/chinas-economy-may-be-growing-faster-but-big-problems-remain">daunting challenges</a> in its domestic economy. But weakness in the real estate market and consumer spending at home is unlikely to stem its rising influence abroad. </p>
<p>In mid-October 2023, China celebrated the 10-year anniversary of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-turns-10-xi-announces-8-new-priorities-continues-push-for-global-influence-216014">Belt and Road Initiative</a>, or BRI. The BRI seeks to connect China with countries around the world via land and maritime networks, with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth. Through the expansion of the BRI, China also sought to extend its global influence, especially in developing regions.</p>
<p>During its first decade, the initiative has faced a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/01/29/how-chinas-belt-and-road-became-a-global-trail-of-trouble/?sh=124d92a5443d">barrage of criticism from the West</a>, mainly for saddling countries with debt, inattention to environmental impact, and corruption. </p>
<p>It has also encountered unexpected challenges – notably the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to massive supply chain issues and restrictions on the movement of Chinese workers overseas. Yet, as the BRI heads into its second decade, global economic trends suggest it will continue to play an important role in spreading Chinese influence.</p>
<p>I’m an associate professor of global studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, where I teach about <a href="https://hss.cuhk.edu.cn/en/teacher/1126">business-government relations</a> in emerging economies. In my new book, “<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/chinas-chance-to-lead/2C88E7D955049471664120981CDF2DFB">China’s Chance to Lead</a>,” I discuss which countries have already and are now most likely to seek out and benefit from Chinese spending. Understanding this helps explain why China and the Belt and Road Initiative are poised to benefit greatly from the global economy over the next several decades.</p>
<h2>Malaysia’s unlikely prominence</h2>
<p>In October 2013, China President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the maritime portion of the BRI during a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-24361172">speech in Jakarta</a>. At the time, Indonesia appeared to be an ideal candidate for Chinese infrastructure spending, yet it was Malaysia – surprisingly – that emerged as a far more avid participant. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of massive housing development in Malaysia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564350/original/file-20231207-15-siwmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A view of Forest City, a condominium project launched under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, in Malaysia’s Johor state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-photo-taken-on-june-16-2022-shows-a-general-news-photo/1241336726">Mohd Rasfan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In comparison to Malaysia, Indonesia’s economy was <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">three times larger</a> and its population <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">nearly nine times bigger</a>, yet its gross domestic product per capita only was <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=IDN&country2=MYS">one-third as high</a>. Indonesia also had enormous potential to increase its already substantial <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/idn/partner/chn">natural resources exports to China</a>. Taken together, these factors point to Indonesia’s far greater demand for infrastructure that would aid its economic development. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Indonesia’s democratic institutions were more conducive to attracting foreign investment. Its checks and balances enhanced policy stability and reduced political risk. By contrast, Malaysia’s government, which was dominated by a single ruling party coalition, lacked comparable checks and balances.</p>
<p>Despite Indonesia’s numerous advantages, Malaysia attracted a far larger volume of BRI spending during its first several years. Data provided by the <a href="https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/">China Global Investment Tracker</a> indicates the value of newly announced infrastructure projects in Malaysia surged from US$3.5 billion in 2012 to over $8.6 billion in 2016. Spending in Indonesia, meanwhile, rose modestly from $3.75 billion to $3.77 billion over the same period.</p>
<p>Malaysia also enthusiastically participated in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/china-digital-silk-road/">Digital Silk Road</a>, or DSR, launched in 2015. The DSR is the technological dimension of the BRI that aims to improve digital connectivity in Belt and Road countries. Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak engaged Jack Ma, the co-founder of Chinese tech giant Alibaba, as an adviser to develop e-commerce in 2016. This led to the creation in 2017 of a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/business/2017/11/298317/%C2%A0digital-free-trade-zone-goes-live-nov-3">Digital Free Trade Zone</a>, an international e-commerce logistics hub next to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport.</p>
<p>With this foundation in place, Malaysia’s capital went on to become the first city outside China to adopt Alibaba’s <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/alibaba-city-brain-artificial-intelligence-china-kuala-lumpur">City Brain</a> smart city solution in January 2018. City Brain uses the wealth of urban data to effectively allocate public resources, improve social governance and promote sustainable urban development. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pivotal-year-city-brain-other-middle-east-ai-news-carrington-malin-/">Dubai and other cities in the Middle East</a> followed. </p>
<p>Digital Silk Road projects in Indonesia during that period were far fewer, slower and less ambitious. They primarily involved the expansion of <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/updates/2022-SU-IndoChina-Updated.pdf">Chinese smartphone and e-commerce firms</a> in Indonesia.</p>
<p>What accounts for these contrasting responses? The short answer: their political regimes. And understanding that could be key to the global spread of Chinese influence in the coming years.</p>
<h2>State-owned business and clientelism</h2>
<p>In the lead-up to the May 2018 election, Malaysia’s ruling party and its allies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341803700307">worried they could lose power</a> after six decades of rule. Desperate to bolster support, Najib quickly identified <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/what-happened-to-chinas-bri-projects-in-malaysia/">numerous infrastructure megaprojects</a> in which Chinese state-owned businesses could partner with Malaysian counterparts.</p>
<p>Indonesia, by contrast, placed far greater emphasis on projects led by private business. For example, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/workers-are-dying-in-the-ev-industrys-tainted-city/">the world’s epicenter for nickel production</a>,” is one of the largest Chinese investments in Indonesia and a joint venture between private Chinese and Indonesian companies. </p>
<p>As I discuss in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/chinas-chance-to-lead/2C88E7D955049471664120981CDF2DFB">my book</a>, when rulers in autocracies with semi-competitive elections, like Malaysia’s, have a weak hold on power, their desire for Chinese spending is amplified. This relates to <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095617734">clientelism</a>, or the delivery of goods and services in exchange for political support.</p>
<p>A higher level of state control in autocracies grants political leaders greater influence over the allocation of clientelist benefits, which aids leaders’ reelection efforts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Najib Razak, prime minister of Malaysia, and Jack Ma Yun, founder of Alibaba Group, stand and clap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564351/original/file-20231207-27-yxvnt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Najib Razak, left, then-prime minister of Malaysia, and Jack Ma, Alibaba Group founder and executive chairman, attend a launch ceremony of the Digital Free Trade Zone in Kuala Lumpur.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/najib-razak-prime-minister-of-malaysia-and-jack-ma-yun-news-photo/1092858894">Thomas Yau/South China Morning Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Economic trends that will benefit China</h2>
<p>Even if China’s future growth is lower than the pre-pandemic period, these four features of the global economy are poised to benefit China and the Belt and Road Initiative over the next several decades. </p>
<p><strong>1. Global rise of autocracies</strong> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf">Over 60% of developing countries</a> are autocratic, according to data provided by the <a href="https://www.v-dem.net/">Varieties of Democracy Project</a>. This represented 72% of the global population in 2022, up from 46% in 2012. </p>
<p>For decades, the World Bank and affiliated regional development banks were the only game in town for development financing to low- and middle-income countries. Consequently, these global lenders could demand liberalizing reforms that were sometimes contrary to the interests of incumbent rulers, especially autocrats. </p>
<p>China’s rise has created an attractive alternative for autocratic regimes, especially since it does not impose the same kinds of conditions that often require loosening state controls on the corporate sector and reducing clientelism. Between 2014 and 2019, I find that 77% of total BRI spending on construction projects went to autocracies, and primarily to those with semi-competitive elections.</p>
<p><strong>2. Demand for Chinese infrastructure spending</strong></p>
<p>The economies of developing countries have grown <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/ADVEC/OEMDC">more than twice as quickly</a> as advanced economies since 2000 and are projected to <a href="https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html">outpace advanced economies</a> in the decades ahead. On the eve of the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, developing economies accounted for 37% of global GDP; by 2030, the International Monetary Fund projects they will account for <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD">around 63%</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the global infrastructure financing gap – that is, the money needed to build and upgrade existing infrastructure – is estimated to be around <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-global-infrastructure-financing-gap-where-sovereign-wealth-funds-swfs-and-pension-funds-can-come-in/#:%7E:text=The%20global%20infrastructure%20financing%20gap%20is%20estimated%20to%20be%20around,year%20in%20the%20infrastructure%20sector.">$15 trillion</a> by 2040. To fill this gap, the world must spend just under $1 trillion more than the previous year up through 2040, with most of this spending directed toward low-income economies.</p>
<p>Because many of these fast-growing, low-income countries are predominantly semicompetitive autocracies, China is well-positioned to expand its global influence via the Belt and Road Initiative. </p>
<p><strong>3. Emerging tech</strong></p>
<p>The advent of what is known as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-are-industry-4-0-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-and-4ir">Industry 4.0 technologies</a>, such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and blockchain, could enable developing countries to <a href="https://hub.unido.org/sites/default/files/publications/Unlocking%20the%20Potential%20of%20Industry%204.0%20for%20Developing%20Countries.pdf">leapfrog stages of development</a>. </p>
<p>By creating <a href="https://www.nbr.org/publication/setting-the-standards-locking-in-chinas-technological-influence/">new technical standards</a> to be used in these emerging digital technologies, China aims to lock in Chinese digital products and services and lock out non-Chinese competitors wherever its standards are adopted. </p>
<p>In Tanzania, for example, the Chinese company contracted to deploy the national ICT broadband network constructed it to be <a href="https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/pdf/Chinas%20Digital%20Silk%20Road%20and%20Africas%20Technological%20Future_FINAL.pdf">compatible only with routers</a> made by Chinese firm Huawei. </p>
<p>Incorporating digital technologies into hard infrastructure projects – digital traffic sensors on roads, for example – presents more opportunities for China to use the Belt and Road Initiative to promote adoption of its technologies and standards globally.</p>
<p><strong>4. Urbanization</strong></p>
<p>Finally, the developing world’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization#:%7E:text=Across%20all%20countries%2C%20urban%20shares,from%2054%25%20in%202016">urban population</a> is expected to rise from 35% in 1990 to 65% by 2050. The biggest increases will likely occur in the semi-competitive autocracies of Africa. A desire for sustainable urbanization will increase the demand for infrastructure that incorporates digital technologies – once again amplifying the opportunity for China and the BRI. </p>
<p>Understanding what drives the demand for the Belt and Road Initiative, and the trends that will propel it into the future, is vital for the West to devise an effective strategy that counters China’s rising global influence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More autocratic governments, growing urbanization and emerging technologies will bolster the spread of Chinese influence around the world, an expert on emerging economies explains.Richard Carney, Associate professor of global studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong, ShenzhenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112732023-08-23T20:08:21Z2023-08-23T20:08:21ZThis cave on Borneo has been used for 20,000 years – and we’ve now dated rock art showing colonial resistance 400 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542080/original/file-20230810-21-p2xl0t.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C2%2C1347%2C852&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Jalandoni</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The islands of South-East Asia record a long and dynamic human history of <a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-earliest-evidence-of-a-successful-surgical-amputation-found-in-31-000-year-old-grave-in-borneo-189683">technological innovation</a>, migration and conflict. </p>
<p>The region’s rock art stretches back more than <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-found-the-oldest-known-cave-painting-of-animals-in-a-secret-indonesian-valley-153089">45,000 years</a>. It’s a unique source of information about this complex human past.</p>
<p>But rock art doesn’t just record ancient history. Researchers have identified artwork documenting the more recent past, including <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1469605314548940">Indigenous resistance</a> to colonial occupation, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327733403_Curiosity_Conflict_and_Contact_Period_Rock_Art_of_the_Northern_Frontier_Mexico_and_Texas">violent frontier conflicts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-bandit-slaves-and-the-rock-art-of-resistance-165107">enslavement</a>. </p>
<p>Our new study, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0288902">published today</a>, shines a new light on rock art of Sarawak (a state of Malaysia on the island of Borneo). The rock art we have dated records resistance to colonial forces in Malaysian Borneo during the 17th to 19th centuries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542052/original/file-20230810-23-pgmpvy.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The two rock art drawings that were dated and interpreted by our new research.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Digital tracing and design by Lucas Huntley.</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/40-000-year-old-rock-art-found-in-indonesia-32674">40,000 year old rock art found in Indonesia</a>
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<h2>Rock art in Borneo</h2>
<p>Black drawings of people, animals, ships and abstract geometric designs <a href="https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/004d4697-50c7-4313-b778-c5b092921f9d/content">dominate caves throughout Borneo’s north-west</a>.</p>
<p>Gua Sireh is one of the region’s best-known rock art sites, attracting hundreds of visitors each year. The cave is about 55 kilometres south-east of Sarawak’s capital, Kuching. </p>
<p>Hundreds of charcoal drawings cover the walls of Gua Sireh. People are shown wearing headdresses. Some are armed with shields, knives and spears <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/680499">in scenes</a> of hunting, butchering, fishing, fighting and dancing.</p>
<p></p><div style="padding:56.25% 0 0 0;position:relative;"><p></p>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/853195976?h=12c77f3375&badge=0&autopause=0&player_id=0&app_id=58479" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;" title="Fly-through of Gua Sireh pointcloud" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p></p></div><p></p>
<p>Excavations in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s revealed people intermittently used Gua Sireh for around <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/110867">20,000 years</a>, before abandoning the site around 1900. The Indigenous people who used the cave were the ancestors of the contemporary Bidayuh (inland tribal people), also known as “Land Dayaks” in early ethnographic accounts. </p>
<p>Malayo-Polynesian Austronesian speakers (whose language originates in Taiwan) spread across Island South-East Asia and the Pacific starting around 3,000 to 4,000 years ago. Austronesian influence at Gua Sireh dates from about 4,000 years ago, indicated by the first appearance of charred rice and pottery.</p>
<p>The presence of Austronesian communities at Gua Sireh is a part of broader evidence for dynamic human migrations in the region over thousands of years.</p>
<p>Further cultural interactions at the site occurred around 2,000 years ago, with grave goods, such as glass beads, showing contact between the Bidayuh and coastal traders.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/linguistics-locates-the-beginnings-of-the-austronesian-expansion-with-indigenous-seafaring-people-in-eastern-taiwan-186547">Linguistics locates the beginnings of the Austronesian expansion – with Indigenous seafaring people in eastern Taiwan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the 17th to 19th centuries, there was a period of increasing conflict when Malay elites controlling the region exacted heavy tolls on local Indigenous tribes. Using <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/28279/chapter/214425985?login=true">radiocarbon</a> dating, we have been able to date two large, elaborate human figures to this period. They were drawn between 1670 and 1830.</p>
<p>We interpreted our results informed by the <a href="https://digital.library.cornell.edu/catalog/sea149a">oral histories</a> of the Bidayuh, who have continuing custodial responsibilities over the site today. </p>
<p>Our findings sit alongside other recent archaeological work that has highlighted <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-unearthing-queenslands-native-police-camps-gives-us-a-window-onto-colonial-violence-100814">Indigenous resistance to colonial occupation</a>. </p>
<h2>Carbon dating the images</h2>
<p>In addition to radiocarbon dating and oral history, another strand of evidence we used to interpret these new dates were the images themselves. </p>
<p>One figure we looked at in our carbon dating brandishes two short-bladed <a href="https://library.khmerstudies.org/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=8312&shelfbrowse_itemnumber=413">Parang Ilang</a>, the principal weapon used during the warfare that marked the first decades of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Rajahs">white rule in Borneo</a>. We have dated this figure as drawn between 1670 and 1710 when Malay elites dominated the Bidayuh. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542060/original/file-20230810-27-lcpgo0.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bidayuh descendant Mohammad Sherman Sauffi William (Sarawak Museum Department) and Jillian Huntley harvesting a sample from the rock art.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul S.C. Taçon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In another image we studied, large human figures are shown holding distinctive weapons such as a Pandat – the war sword of Land Dayaks, including the Bidayuh. Pandat were used <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2842798">exclusively for fighting</a> and protection, never in agriculture or handicrafts, suggesting the drawing relates to conflict.</p>
<p>We have dated this figure to between 1790 and 1830. This was a period of increasing conflict between the Bidayuh and Iban (Indigenous peoples from the coast, also known as Sea Dayaks) and Brunei Malay rulers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542273/original/file-20230811-19-hx8z7r.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Pandat in this rock art was used exclusively for fighting and protection, suggesting the drawing relates to conflict.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrea Jalandoni</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During this period many Indigenous Sarawakians moved into the upland interior, including the Gua Sireh area, <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/3721121">to escape persecution</a>. </p>
<p>Brunei rulers were known to not only bully and enslave people but also allowed expeditions of Ibans to attack the Bidayuh. The Ibans were said <a href="https://www.abebooks.com/Sarawak-Morrison-Hedda-Donald-Moore-Gallery/31168985070/bd">to keep the heads</a> of the people they slaughtered and handed over the “slaves” they captured to the Brunei authority.</p>
<p>An example from Bidayuh oral histories of the cave being used as a refuge during territorial violence comes from 1855. The British diplomat <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spenser_St._John">Spenser St John</a> was shown a skeleton in Gua Sireh. A local tribesman said he had shot this man years earlier, before the rule of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Brooke">James Brooke</a>, which began in 1839. </p>
<p>The shooting resulted from a skirmish with a very harsh Malay chief who had demanded the Bidayuh hand over their children. They refused and retreated to Gua Sireh where they held off a force of 300 armed men. </p>
<p>Suffering some losses (two Bidayuh were shot, and seven were taken prisoner and enslaved), most of the tribe escaped through the far side of the cave complex, saving their children.</p>
<p>Oral histories combined with the figures holding weapons of warfare contextualise the ages we now have for the rock art. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542064/original/file-20230810-25-jfip6l.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plan of the Gua Sireh cave system showing passage through Gunung Nambi (limestone hill) via the connecting passage between Gua Sireh and Gua Sebayan. Blue indicates water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The direct dates we have produced demonstrate distinct periods of drawing can be identified. </p>
<p>The ubiquity of black drawings across the region and their probable links to the migrations of Austronesian and Malay peoples opens exciting possibilities for further understanding the complexities of rock art production in Island South-East Asia.</p>
<p><em>This article was coauthored with Mohammad Sherman Sauffi William from the Sarawak Museum Department.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Huntley receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Scientific Foundation of America. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Jalandoni receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emilie Dotte-Sarout receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul S.C.Taçon receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fiona Petchey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New dates for the rock art in the Gua Sireh cave in Malaysia reveal resistance to frontier violence between 1670 and 1830.Jillian Huntley, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Social and Cultural Research, Griffith UniversityAndrea Jalandoni, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Social Cultural Research, Griffith UniversityEmilie Dotte-Sarout, ARC DECRA Research Fellow in Archaeology, The University of Western AustraliaFiona Petchey, Associate Professor and Director, Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory, Te Aka Mātuatua - School of Science, University of WaikatoPaul S.C.Taçon, Chair in Rock Art Research and Director of the Place, Evolution and Rock Art Heritage Unit (PERAHU), Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2050652023-07-11T19:24:49Z2023-07-11T19:24:49ZLast seen 90 years ago, strange worm species is found crawling in Malaysia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536803/original/file-20230711-29-zqck7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C54%2C1388%2C891&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The first specimen of _Bipalium admarginatum_ was found by George Verdon in the jungle of a tropical island.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">George Verdon</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>George Verdon had a biological enigma on his hands. He’d stumbled across an animal while out for a run which was proving difficult to identify… In all fairness, this run had been through an island jungle on the Malay peninsula, so the chance of finding something weird was significantly higher than usual, but nevertheless this particular animal was resisting his attempts to work out what it was.</p>
<p>It was about 10 cm long and looked like a worm. It also had stark stripey warning colours and for a moment almost looked like a tiny juvenile snake. However, when looking at the head – hammerheaded and flattened and apparently eyeless – it was clearly something different.</p>
<p>As a professional wildlife filmmaker, George has seen a lot of strange animals, but was lost with this one. After some Internet research, he found that there were some scientists crazy enough (us…) to study these weird creatures.</p>
<p>For the last 10 years, we have undertaken to characterise the land flatworms which invade European countries, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/obama-nungara-how-a-flatworm-from-argentina-jumped-the-atlantic-and-invaded-france-131186"><em>Obama nungara</em></a>, now found in more than 70 departments in France, or the giant species <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-giant-predatory-worms-really-are-invading-france-97106"><em>Bipalium kewense</em></a>. George got in touch in August of 2019, sending us an e-mail with some photos and asking if we knew any more about it. </p>
<p>Upon comparison with the scientific literature, it turned out to be a species that hadn’t been seen in the 90 years since it was first discovered: <em>Bipalium admarginatum</em>. It hadn’t been recorded since it was first described in 1933 by de Beauchamp, on an island not far away from George’s sighting. Naturally, we were excited, and asked George if he had collected the specimen he had seen. For some reason we don’t understand, he had been out for a jog without a field kit, and had subsequently let the animal glide back into the leaf litter. We asked him if he could dive back into the jungle to find a few specimens, and gave instructions on how best to find and catch them.</p>
<h2>Macaques, and quadruple gin and tonic… without tonic</h2>
<p>Returning to the scene of the sighting armed with collecting vials, larval forceps, and the help of Liv Grant (a friend and colleague), George found more of the species. This was only half of the challenge, as they turned out to be in the territory of macaques, who were not feeling hospitable. Liv took up the task of fending off the marauders while George hastily collected, and the two quickly retreated.</p>
<p>So far so good, but how to preserve them? The instructions we gave were to put the animals in pure ethanol, but tropical islands are notoriously lacking when it comes to laboratory supplies. Or so we thought… George found a solution: a quadruple gin and tonic, minus the tonic, the lime, the ice, and the umbrella. After putting the specimens into a vial with the gin, George brought them to Michelle Soo, at the UCSI University of Kuala Lumpur, who took charge of verifying the discovery.</p>
<h2>Complete mitochondrial genome</h2>
<p>The next step was to attempt a molecular analysis of the animal. This is important for characterising it and understanding its relationship with other species of the genus <em>Bipalium</em>. Normally this is only done <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/4672/">on specimens well preserved in absolute ethanol</a>. Romain Gastineau, at the University of Szczecin in Poland, tried anyway… and thanks to next-generation sequencing techniques, we were able to characterise the complete mitochondrial genome of <em>Bipalium admarginatum</em>, despite the original harvest in the gin. </p>
<p>Only about 10 complete mitogenomes are known in this family, all the others having been obtained from specimens harvested under perfect conditions and <a href="https://peerj.com/articles/12725/">impeccable ethanol in a laboratory</a>. It deserved a <a href="https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.5277.3.11">publication</a>, which we undertook. We were even able to convince the scientific journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.5277.3.11">to add a summary in the Malay language</a>, in order to convince the country’s citizens to collect any bizarre worms they will encounter. Hopefully we will receive other specimens, there are so many extraordinary species to discover and rediscover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean-Lou Justine a reçu des financements du Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leigh Winsor, Michelle Soo et Romain Gastineau ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>A strange worm found in the jungle, then harvested and preserved in… gin, provides a better understanding of the evolution and genetics of flatworms.Jean-Lou Justine, Professeur, UMR ISYEB (Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité), Muséum national d’histoire naturelle (MNHN)Leigh Winsor, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, James Cook UniversityMichelle Soo, Assistant Professor, Deputy Dean of the Department of Biotechnology, UCSI UniversityRomain Gastineau, Professeur assistant (Institut des sciences de la mer et de l'environnement), University of SzczecinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041062023-05-03T07:14:38Z2023-05-03T07:14:38ZIndonesia should reject China’s request to put state budget as collateral for Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train project<p>Indonesia’s high-speed train project connecting the country’s capital Jakarta and West Java’s capital, Bandung, has encountered another stumble. Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/accidents-on-chinese-projects-are-rampant-but-why-does-indonesias-economy-still-depend-on-china-197798">accidents</a>, including one in December that claimed two lives, the China-backed project has hit <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Indonesia-high-speed-railway-still-beset-by-problems">financial problems</a>. As a result, the cost of the project has swelled by <a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/train-update-04102023132029.html">US$ 1.2 billion</a> from the original forecast of $6 billion.</p>
<p>China has <a href="https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/insider/china-demands-indonesian-state-budget-guarantee-on-high-speed-train-raises-debt-trap-concerns/">asked</a> Indonesia to guarantee to cover the swelling budget. </p>
<p>As researchers focusing on China-Indonesia relations, we suggest the Indonesian government reject the request to avoid detrimental consequences for the country’s economy. Indonesia must learn from Malaysia’s success story in renegotiating project debts financed by China in 2016. </p>
<h2>Lessons from Sri Lanka and Uganda</h2>
<p>This cost overrun is very similar to Sri Lanka’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/china-becomes-wild-card-in-sri-lankas-debt-crisis/">failed</a> Hambantota Port development. </p>
<p>Sri Lanka received a $1.3 billion loan from China to modernise the port on the condition that the Chinese Communications Construction Company execute the project. </p>
<p>But Sri Lanka was unable to pay off its debt, which had grown to $8 billion, due to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/4/30/23050242/sri-lanka-50-billion-debt-protests-loan-default-china-india-imf">massive levels of corruption</a>. As a result, Sri Lanka <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:tryBWGs_gJgJ:https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/the-hambantota-port-deal-myths-and-realities/&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=kr">leased</a> a 70%-stake in the port to the China Merchant Port company for 99 years to earn $1.12 billion to help fund <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:tryBWGs_gJgJ:https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/the-hambantota-port-deal-myths-and-realities/&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=kr">the country’s balance of payment</a>.</p>
<p>So, in addition to the loan that Sri Lanka had to pay for the Hambantota project, Sri Lanka no longer had the dominant ownership of the project. The majority of profits will go to China Merchant Port, instead. </p>
<p>Another debt issue arose in <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-reportedly-takes-over-ugandas-airport-on-account-of-loan-default/articleshow/87957646.cms?from=mdr">Uganda’s Entebbe International airport expansion project</a> in 2021. The project <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Uganda-Entebbe-Airport-China-Eximbank.pdf">received</a> a loan from the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) of China worth $207 million. This loan has a term of 20 years. However, efforts to pay off the debt have faltered. </p>
<p>The financial agreement <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Uganda-Entebbe-Airport-China-Eximbank.pdf">states</a> that Uganda is required to provide a fully liquid source of collateral in the form of cash deposit that China can unilaterally seize if Uganda is unable to pay off the loan.</p>
<p>In addition, China also <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Uganda-Entebbe-Airport-China-Eximbank.pdf">demanded</a> all revenues generated from Entebbe International Airport be used to repay the loan on a priority basis. Uganda managed to refuse this request and renegotiate under <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Uganda-Entebbe-Airport-China-Eximbank.pdf">a less intrusive arrangement</a>, which grants the lender the right to monitor but not control the spending decisions. </p>
<p>Indonesian economists have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/c72vg2v5732o">warned</a> that Indonesia could suffer financially from paying China’s increasing debts for the high-speed train project. If Indonesia doesn’t want to end up with debt problems to those encountered elsewhere, it needs a strategy and it could do worse that take a look at Malaysia’s successful strategy in renegotiating with China.</p>
<h2>Malaysia’s renegotiation</h2>
<p>Malaysia launched the <a href="https://www.gatra.com/news-410620--malaysia-renegosiasi-proyek-rel-kereta-api-dengan-tiongkok.html">East Coast Rail Line (ECRL)</a> under Najib Razak’s administration in 2016 at a cost of 65.5 billion ringgit (US$19.6 billion).</p>
<p>The current leadership under Mahathir Mohamad deems the project too expensive, and has contended that it is unclear why many of the cost overruns have occurred. After nine months of repeated negotiations, China <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/660ce336-5f38-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e">agreed</a> to lower the project cost by one-third to 44 billion ringgit. </p>
<p>Malaysia had been using its connections with the United States, Japan and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during its negotiation with China. Malaysia strengthening bargaining power with this strategy. </p>
<p>Indonesia should use its strategic position as ASEAN’s founding country and this year’s chair to renegotiate with China to reduce the risk of being entangled in debt defaults and suffer from deeper losses.</p>
<h2>Recommendations</h2>
<p>It is crucial to note that when it comes to Chinese-funded projects, recipient countries are not hapless victims. Rather they actively shape how the projects are implemented and their outcomes.</p>
<p>The wise option for Indonesia is to refuse China’s request to use its state budget as collateral, because it is too risky. Putting the state budget as collateral may result in losses that will eventually put the burden of debt to Indonesian citizens. </p>
<p>We recommend Indonesia to be careful in this project partnership with China and to diversify its country partners in infrastructure projects in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Using the state budget as collateral it is too risky a move when it comes to dealing with Beijing.Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Researcher, Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS)Yeta Purnama, Researcher, Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029202023-04-27T15:07:05Z2023-04-27T15:07:05ZHuman activities in Asia have reduced elephant habitat by nearly two-thirds since 1700, dividing what remains into ever-smaller patches<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522859/original/file-20230425-26-oskryk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2492%2C1511&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Habitat loss has driven Asian elephants, like these foraging at a garbage dump in Sri Lanka, into human areas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photograph-taken-on-may-11-wild-elephants-rummage-news-photo/958346764">Lakruwan Wanniarachchi/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite their iconic status and long association with humans, Asian elephants are one of the most endangered large mammals. Believed to number between 45,000 and 50,000 individuals worldwide, they are at risk throughout Asia due to human activities such as deforestation, mining, dam building and road construction, which have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1624">damaged numerous ecosystems</a>. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I wanted to know when human actions started to fragment wildlife habitats and populations to the degree seen today. We quantified these impacts by considering them through the needs of this species. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30650-8">newly published study</a>, we examined the centuries-long history of Asian landscapes that once were suitable elephant habitat and often were managed by local communities prior to the colonial era. In our view, understanding this history and restoring some of these relationships may be the key to living with elephants and other large wild animals in the future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several elephants walk along a path parallel to a road with cars on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522847/original/file-20230425-14-twwigb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Although elephants can cross roads and other infrastructure, elephant habitats across Asia are increasingly hemmed in, with firm boundaries between human and wildlife spaces. These elephants are in Sri Lanka.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shermin de Silva</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How have humans affected wildlife?</h2>
<p>It isn’t easy to measure human impacts on wildlife across a region as large and diverse as Asia and more than a century ago. Historical data for many species is sparse. Museums, for instance, only contain specimens collected from certain locations. </p>
<p>Many animals also have very specific ecological requirements, and there often isn’t sufficient data on these features at a fine scale going far into the past. For instance, a species might prefer particular microclimates or vegetation types that occur only at particular elevations.</p>
<p>For nearly two decades <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wPzBt-EAAAAJ&hl=en">I’ve been studying Asian elephants</a>. As a species, these animals are breathtakingly adaptable: They can live in seasonally dry forests, grasslands or the densest of rain forests. If we could match the habitat requirements of elephants to data sets showing how these habitats changed over time, we knew that we could understand how land-use changes have affected elephants and other wildlife in these environments.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5GmzakE1yRc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Fewer than 50,000 Asian elephants remain in the wild across 13 countries. Habitat loss is one of the main reasons for their decline.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Defining elephant ecosystems</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/45818198">home-range sizes</a> of Asian elephants can vary anywhere from a few hundred square miles to a few thousand. But since we couldn’t know exactly where elephants would have been centuries ago, we had to model the possibilities based on where they occur today. </p>
<p>By identifying the environmental features that correspond to locations where wild elephants live now, we can distinguish places where they could potentially have lived in the past. In principle, this should represent “good” habitat.</p>
<p>Today many scientists are using this kind of model to identify particular species’ climatic requirements and predict how areas suitable for those species might shift under future climate change scenarios. We applied the same logic retrospectively, using land-use and land-cover types instead of climate change projections. </p>
<p>We drew this information from the <a href="https://luh.umd.edu/">Land-Use Harmonization (LUH2)</a> data set, released by a research group at the University of Maryland. The group mapped historical land-use categories by type, starting in the year 850 – long before the advent of nations as we know them today, with fewer large population centers – and extending up to 2015.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing active, possible and potential elephant range across Asia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522857/original/file-20230425-18-9z1dzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Asian elephants live in countries with large human populations, and their range has been shrunk and fragmented. Their future depends on human attitudes toward elephants and their conservation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.trunksnleaves.org/status-threats.html">Hedges et al., 2008, via Trunks & Leaves</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My co-authors and I first compiled records of where Asian elephants have been observed in the recent past. We limited our study to the 13 countries that today still contain wild elephants: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. </p>
<p>We excluded areas where elephant populations are prone to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/20/asia/human-elephant-conflict-india-krithi-karanth-c2e-spc-intl-hnk/index.html">clashing with people</a>, such as intensively farmed landscapes and plantations, in order to avoid classifying these zones as “good” elephant habitat. We included areas with lighter human influence, such as selectively logged forests, because they actually contain great food for elephants.</p>
<p>Next, we used a machine-learning algorithm to determine what types of land use and land cover existed at our remaining locations. This allowed us to map out where elephants could potentially live as of the year 2000. By applying our model to earlier and later years, we were able to generate maps of areas that contained suitable habitat for elephants and to see how those areas had changed over the centuries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A line of elephants drinking at a reservoir." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522862/original/file-20230425-24-dz2yar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some human-made features, like this reservoir in Sri Lanka, can also be resources for wildlife.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shermin de Silva</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dramatic declines</h2>
<p>Land-use patterns <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00540.x">changed significantly on every continent</a> starting with the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s and extending through the colonial era into the mid-20th century. Asia was no exception. </p>
<p>For most areas, we found that suitable elephant habitat took a steep dive around this time. We estimated that from 1700 through 2015 the total amount of suitable habitat decreased by 64%. More than 1.2 million square miles (3 million square kilometers) of land were converted for plantations, industry and urban development. With respect to potential elephant habitat, most of the change occurred in India and China, each of which saw conversion in more than 80% of these landscapes.</p>
<p>In other areas of Southeast Asia – such as a large hot spot of elephant habitat in central Thailand, which was never colonized – habitat loss happened more recently, in the mid-20th century. This timing corresponds to logging concurrent with the so-called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/green-revolution">Green Revolution</a>, which introduced industrial agriculture to many parts of the world. </p>
<h2>Could the past be the key to the future?</h2>
<p>Looking back at land-use change over centuries makes it clear just how drastically human actions have reduced habitat for Asian elephants. The losses that we measured greatly exceed estimates of “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2016.08.049">catastrophic” human impacts on so-called wilderness</a> or forests within recent decades.</p>
<p>Our analysis shows that if you were an elephant in the 1700s, you might have been able to range across 40% of the available habitat in Asia with no problem, because it was one large, contiguous area that contained many ecosystems where you could live. This enabled gene flow among many elephant populations. But by 2015, human activities had so drastically fragmented the total suitable area for elephants that the largest patch of good habitat represented less than 7% of it.</p>
<p>Sri Lanka and peninsular Malaysia have a disproportionately high share of Asia’s wild elephant population, relative to available elephant habitat area. Thailand and Myanmar have smaller populations relative to area. Interestingly, the latter are countries known for their large captive or semi-captive elephant populations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1649084703272517636"}"></div></p>
<p>Less than half of the areas that contain wild elephants today have adequate habitat for them. Elephants’ resulting use of increasingly human-dominated landscapes leads to <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/25165/human-elephant-conflict-and-coexistence-in-asia">confrontations that are harmful</a> for both elephants and people. </p>
<p>However, this long view of history reminds us that protected areas alone are not the answer, since they simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-22989-1">cannot be large enough</a> to support elephant populations. Indeed, human societies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023483118">shaped these very landscapes for millennia</a>. </p>
<p>Today there is a pressing challenge to balance human subsistence and livelihood requirements with the needs of wildlife. Restoring <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202200051">traditional forms of land management</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00815-2">local stewardship</a> of these landscapes can be an essential part of protecting and recovering ecosystems that serve both people and wildlife in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shermin de Silva receives funding from the US Fish & Wildlife Asian Elephant Conservation Funds. She is president and founder of Trunks & Leaves Inc. a non-profit organization that works to facilitate evidence-based conservation of Asian elephants and their habitats. de Silva also directs the Udawalawe Elephant Research Project in Sri Lanka, which she initiated in 2005, and is a member of the Asian Elephant Specialist Group of the IUCN Species Survival Commission. </span></em></p>A new study looks back into history to assess human impacts on the range of Asian elephants and finds sharp decline starting several centuries ago.Shermin de Silva, Assistant Professor of Ecology, Behavior and Evolution, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1986512023-04-19T12:44:42Z2023-04-19T12:44:42ZThe US is about to blow up a fake warship in the South China Sea – but naval rivalry with Beijing is very real and growing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521714/original/file-20230418-28-hiqec4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C146%2C3377%2C2411&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Marine amphibious assault vehicle takes part in a 2019 joint U.S.-Philippines exercise.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/marine-amphibious-assault-vehicle-maneouvers-before-the-uss-news-photo/1136245278?adppopup=true">Ted Aljibe/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As part of a joint military exercise with the Philippines, the U.S. Navy is slated to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/us-philippines-military-exercises-60af099f1526c6fce180d217e97788ad">sink a mock warship</a> on April 26, 2023, in the South China Sea. </p>
<p>The live-fire drill is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65236459">not a response to increased tensions</a> with China over Taiwan, both the U.S. and the Philippines have stressed. But, either way, Beijing isn’t happy – responding by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-following-chinas-taiwan-drills-with-great-interest-2023-04-10/">holding its own staged military event</a> involving actual warships and fighter jets deployed around Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims as its own.</p>
<p>The tit-for-tat war games underscore a reality that U.S. presidents have increasingly had to contend with as the 21st century has drawn on. More than a century after President Theodore Roosevelt <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/april/theodore-roosevelts-great-power-navy">made the United States the preeminent maritime power</a> in the Pacific, that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-size-history-victory-intl-hnk-ml/index.html">position is under threat</a>. China is seeking to displace it. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://bakercenter.utk.edu/find-an-expert/krista-wiegand/">scholar of East Asian security and maritime disputes</a>, I believe that the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China over dominance of the Pacific has the potential to define <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf">geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific region</a> for the next half-century.</p>
<p>Already, ongoing maritime disputes pit China against several Asian countries. For example, China regularly <a href="https://www.cfr.org/chinas-maritime-disputes/#!/chinas-maritime-disputes?cid=otr-marketing_use-china_sea_InfoGuide">challenges the maritime rights</a> of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia in the South China Sea and Japan in the East China Sea. </p>
<p>But the disputed waters are also of huge strategic importance to the U.S. It is where China is flexing its growing military might in the face of U.S. allies and partners, notably Taiwan, which the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/#:%7E:text=Asked%20last%20October%20if%20the,a%20commitment%20to%20do%20that.%22">U.S. has committed to defend</a>. If a war between China and the U.S. is going to happen, I believe the South China Sea is likely to be a major theater, with Chinese aggression toward Taiwan the spark.</p>
<h2>The scramble over the South China Sea</h2>
<p>For centuries, the dozens of islands, shoals, reefs, banks and rocks in the South China Sea were regarded as little more than hazards to navigation. </p>
<p>But with the discovery of large reserves of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0360-5442(85)90057-X">oil and gas in the 1970s</a> and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/the-south-china-sea-is-really-a-fishery-dispute/">billions of dollars’ worth of fisheries</a>, the previously largely ignored sea has gained significant attention from the countries whose shorelines meet it.</p>
<p>It led to a revival of elapsed conflicting claims of “ownership” over the sea.</p>
<p>China currently claims legal rights to the vast majority of the South China Sea, extending well beyond the boundaries established by the 1982 U.N. <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/law-of-sea-convention#:%7E:text=The%201982%20Law%20of%20the,both%20natural%20and%20cultural%20resources.">Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> (UNCLOS).</p>
<p>This claim by China, designated on maps by a <a href="https://time.com/4412191/nine-dash-line-9-south-china-sea/">nine-dash line</a>, overlaps with the legally recognized maritime and territorial rights of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An infographic shows a map of the South China Sea and surrounding countries with their claims to the waters represented by dotted lines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521596/original/file-20230418-18-y9zoss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-infographic-titled-south-china-sea-a-hotbed-of-news-photo/1246032083?adppopup=true">Omar Zaghloul/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the past decade, China has consistently engaged in low-level coercive activities called “<a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA594-1.html">gray zone tactics</a>,” such as small-scale deployment of the Chinese Coast Guard in disputed waters and the manning of fishing vessels with civilians trained by the Chinese military. The purpose is to harass others and assert Chinese maritime rights outside legal Chinese waters, as recognized under UNCLOS. </p>
<p>Since 2013, China has also built up several reefs and shoals into artificial islands, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/china-has-fully-militarized-three-islands-in-south-china-sea-us-admiral-says">building military bases</a> with runways, radar technology and missile-launching capabilities. </p>
<p>In 2016, an UNCLOS Annex VII arbitration panel ruled that China’s nine-dash line <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/tribunal-issues-landmark-ruling-south-china-sea-arbitration">claims were illegal</a> and rejected China’s rights to maritime features in the legal waters of the Philippines.</p>
<p>But despite the legally binding nature of the ruling, China has continued to militarize its artificially built-up islands and harass neighboring countries’ military and fishing vessels. It has also <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/china/article/2023/03/23/us-military-rejects-china-s-claim-that-warship-entered-south-china-sea-illegally_6020398_162.html">denied passage to U.S. Navy ships</a> legally sailing through waters in the South China Sea. </p>
<p>Successive U.S. administrations have aired concern over developments in the sea. In 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/index.html">issued a U.S. position</a> on the South China Sea, rejecting China’s maritime claims and its “bullying” tactics as “unlawful.” His successor, Antony Blinken, <a href="https://www.state.gov/fifth-anniversary-of-the-arbitral-tribunal-ruling-on-the-south-china-sea/">in 2021 declared</a>: “Nowhere is the rules-based maritime order under greater threat than in the South China Sea.” </p>
<p>But why does the South China Sea matter so much to the U.S.? The answer lies in economics and power politics. </p>
<h2>A source of trade, natural resources</h2>
<p>About one-third of the world’s shipping transits the South China Sea. In all, more than <a href="https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/">US$3.4 trillion worth of products</a> – everything from rubber ducks to cars – is transported through its waters every year. </p>
<p>The sea connects the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, allowing trade from East Asian countries to flow to and from billions of people in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. It is also where <a href="https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/">14% of all U.S. maritime trade</a> passes through. It is a crucial route for outgoing U.S. goods as well as getting products to the U.S. Without it, the transport of products we use every day would slow down, and these products would cost more.</p>
<p>And then there are oil and gas. Around <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36952">30% of all global crude oil</a> transits through the South China Sea. Furthermore, there is an estimated <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/regions-of-interest/South_China_Sea">$11 billion worth of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of proven deposits of natural gas</a> in the sea, as well as undiscovered oil and gas.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, more than <a href="https://ocean.csis.org/spotlights/illuminating-the-south-china-seas-dark-fishing-fleets/">half of all fishing vessels in the world</a> operate in the South China Sea. </p>
<p>For economic reasons alone, the U.S. and the rest of the world need open trade routes and sea lanes in the South China Sea. Preventing one country – especially a hostile China – from controlling these trade routes and resources is a crucial policy concern for Washington.</p>
<h2>Power politics at sea</h2>
<p>Although economics plays a part, China’s actions in the South China Sea are part of a much broader aggressive campaign. Beijing views territorial and maritime control in the region <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-are-china-s-leaders-saying-about-south-china-sea">through the lens of its national security</a>. It seeks to project its power in the region and defend the Chinese mainland.</p>
<p>Ultimately, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf">as acknowledged by the U.S. government</a>, China is looking to overturn the status quo, replacing the U.S. as the superpower. </p>
<p>This battle for power is already taking shape in the South China Sea, with <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/us-china-confrontation-south-china-sea-b2307238.html">regular confrontations</a> between U.S. naval vessels and China’s maritime militia and navy. </p>
<p>The artificial islands in the South China Sea provide China with military capabilities far beyond the mainland alone. These outposts can be used to help counter and fight the U.S. and its allies, for example, in a war over Taiwan. </p>
<p>While the U.S. is not itself a claimant in the South China Sea disputes, the waters there remain a significant priority for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/14/the-united-states-is-deeply-invested-in-the-south-china-sea/">the national security interests of Washington</a>, too.</p>
<p>It is why the U.S. and its allies conduct freedom of navigation missions through the South China Sea and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/south-korea-us-announce-largest-military-exercises-in-5-years/">engage in naval exercises</a> such as the one <a href="https://apnews.com/article/us-philippines-military-exercises-60af099f1526c6fce180d217e97788ad">taking place in April 2023</a> with the Philippines.</p>
<p>With China playing by a different set of rules than the U.S. and its allies in the region, the risk of clashes at sea is very real. It could even lead to conflict between the two most powerful countries in the world today. </p>
<p>The next time a warship is blown up in the South China Sea, I fear that it may not be just a drill.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Krista Wiegand received funding as a Senior Fulbright Scholar to conduct research on the South China Sea. </span></em></p>The South China Sea is of strategic and economic importance to Beijing and the US, setting up a potential power struggle that could spark conflict.Krista Wiegand, Professor of Political Science, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1985162023-02-26T19:04:15Z2023-02-26T19:04:15ZSoutheast Asian movies have never been a bigger hit at the local box office – and the boom may dampen streaming growth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509387/original/file-20230210-28-pxhmm3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C998%2C748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maryam Dari Pagi Ke Malam (Maryam From Day to Night) made its debut at Rotterdam Film Festival.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Anomalous Films/Rhu Graha</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After premiering <a href="https://variety.com/2022/film/reviews/autobiography-review-1235375874/">at Venice</a> and picking up a swag of <a href="https://variety.com/2022/film/asia/singapore-silver-screen-awards-2022-winners-1235449195/amp/">awards</a> on the festival circuit, Indonesian political thriller Autobiography began its theatrical run in its home country this month.</p>
<p>The allegorical tale looks at the lingering impact of decades of military dictatorship. It is timely, as fears grow that Indonesia appears to be <a href="https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/new-criminal-code-exposes-deep-problems-in-indonesian-legal-education/">retreating</a> into its authoritarian past.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Malaysian drama <em>Maryam Dari Pagi Ke Malam</em> (Maryam From Day to Night) made its international <a href="https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/bahasa/s/418641">debut</a> at the 2023 Rotterdam Film Festival.</p>
<p>The film looks at societal and bureaucratic hurdles faced by a Muslim woman in her 50s who wants to marry her younger partner from an African country.</p>
<p>Last year saw attendance records <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kkn-di-desa-penari-curse-of-the-dancing-village-indonesias-biggest-film-in-history--is-coming-to-america-301631902.html">smashed</a> at screenings of <a href="https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/08/11/with-nearly-rm100-million-in-the-collection-bag-mat-kilau-heads-to-indonesia">homegrown movies</a> across the two Southeast Asian countries. </p>
<p>But as fans flock back to the cinema, what is the future of streaming services in these countries?</p>
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Read more:
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<h2>The roller coaster ride of the local box office</h2>
<p>Locally made films haven’t always enjoyed a steady run of commercial or critical success.</p>
<p>Domestic films in <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2020/08/19/how-indonesias-most-innovative-filmmakers-portrayed-society-and-culture-through-70-years.html">Indonesia</a> and <a href="http://doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/4271">Malaysia</a> were popular and financially viable in the 1950s and early 1960s. Hits included films like <em>Tiga Dara</em> (Three Maidens) in Indonesia and Do Re Mi in Malaysia.</p>
<p>This success began to decline from the 1970s in the face of competition from foreign films and television, a lack of government support, and the Asian financial crisis.</p>
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<p>The resurgence of Indonesia’s film industry began in the early 21st century, when cinema was able to take advantage of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17512786.2020.1808856">greater media freedom</a> following the 1998 fall of Suharto.</p>
<p>Tertiary-educated filmmakers began to make their mark after graduating from local schools such as the Jakarta Institute of the Arts, or after returning home with film and media degrees from overseas.</p>
<p>The commercial and critical success of Mira Lesmana and Riri Riza’s 2002 politics-infused teen flick <em>Ada Apa Dengan Cinta</em> (What’s Up With Love?) is <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110211214051/http:/www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/02/17/mira-lesmana-living-movies.html">credited</a> with jump-starting the local industry.</p>
<p>Lesmana marked the 20th anniversary of the film’s release on her <a href="https://www.kompas.com/hype/read/2022/02/08/121907866/mira-lesmana-peringati-2-dekade-ada-apa-dengan-cinta">Instagram</a>, calling it a cultural phenomenon.</p>
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<p>Today, films made in the region range from critically acclaimed work that is screened at international festivals, to box office draws catering to local tastes.</p>
<h2>Local difficulties</h2>
<p>Unlike Indonesia’s film industry, Malaysian cinema gets some support from the <a href="https://oarep.usim.edu.my/jspui/handle/123456789/1375">government</a>.</p>
<p>But the size of Indonesia’s market, with its estimated movie-going <a href="https://www.investindonesia.go.id/en/article-investment/detail/supporting-the-indonesian-film-industry-through-the-national-film-market">audience</a> of more than 40 million people, dwarfs Malaysia’s. This causes a disparity in funding and distribution opportunities.</p>
<p><em>Maryam Pagi Ke Malam</em> producer Lutfi Hakim Ariff is trying to secure local screenings of the film after its sold-out international debut at Rotterdam.</p>
<p>Speaking from the Netherlands, Ariff says the film’s exploration of women’s rights and xenophobia in Malaysia “makes it difficult to get serious interest from distributors”. He believes the film is unlikely to receive official approval for release “in its current form”.</p>
<p>He hopes the movie’s lead actor (Malaysian cinema icon Datin Sofia Jane) will be a drawcard given the apparent appetite for domestic film consumption following a temporary setback when <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2021/01/07/indonesian-film-industry-in-stasis-but-for-the-better.html">movie theatres were shut</a> across the region during the pandemic.</p>
<h2>The post-pandemic popularity of local films</h2>
<p>Attendance figures for domestic films across the two nations have now <a href="https://deadline.com/2022/12/indonesian-films-record-box-office-kkn-di-desa-penari-satans-slaves-2-disney-1235204953/">come back with a vengeance</a> as audiences choose to support local films over Hollywood blockbusters.</p>
<p>Less than a month after its theatrical release in September 2022, Curse of the Dancing Village – a campy horror aimed squarely at the archipelago’s domestic market – became the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kkn-di-desa-penari-curse-of-the-dancing-village-indonesia-s-biggest-film-in-history-is-coming-to-america-1031761785">highest-grossing Indonesian film</a> in history.</p>
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<p>Around the same time, the historical biopic <em>Mat Kilau</em> became the <a href="https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/08/11/with-nearly-rm100-million-in-the-collection-bag-mat-kilau-heads-to-indonesia">highest-grossing Malaysian film</a> of all time.</p>
<p>The story of a Malay warrior chief who fought against the British Empire in the late 19th century, the movie prompted a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2022/07/810030/silat-regains-some-lustre-thanks-success-mat-kilau-movie">resurgence</a> of local interest in <em>pencak silat</em> – the Southeast Asian martial art brought to Western attention by the 2011 Indonesian action film The Raid.</p>
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<p>Its success suggests that in this region, audiences prefer to fork out to see their own culture and history depicted on screen instead of stories from foreign lands.</p>
<h2>The challenges for streaming services</h2>
<p>So while the cinema is booming, what is the state of streaming services? </p>
<p>While Southeast Asia is a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/streaming-video-grows-southeast-asia-033937006.html">growth</a> market for streaming services, two factors may hamper the success of these services.</p>
<p>Global streaming services like Netflix, Disney Plus and Amazon are <a href="http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/20/WS63003970a310fd2b29e734dc.html">competing</a> with cinema-goers in the region, as well as Chinese streaming providers and each other.</p>
<p>There is another big competitor facing these services: movie pirating.</p>
<p>Countries like Indonesia have a history of lax enforcement of <a href="https://myjms.mohe.gov.my/index.php/ijbtm/article/view/15669">intellectual property</a>.</p>
<p>When content can be watched on social or video streaming sites for free, paying for a streaming service is novel – unlike paying for a <a href="https://www.picodi.com/sa/bargain-hunting/the-difference-in-movie-ticket-prices-around-the-world">comparatively affordable</a> movie ticket as part of a social activity.</p>
<p>The recent success of films like Curse of the Dancing Village and <em>Mat Kilau</em> shows local audiences are interested in local stories, which are in short supply on the global streaming giants. </p>
<p>Streaming services wanting to crack the Indonesian or Malaysian markets will need to navigate the stories and genres which are likely to have mass appeal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-indonesias-most-innovative-filmmakers-portrayed-society-and-culture-through-70-years-of-cinema-144189">How Indonesia's most innovative filmmakers portrayed society and culture through 70 years of cinema</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nasya Bahfen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Last year saw attendance records smashed at screenings of homegrown movies in Indonesia and Malaysia.Nasya Bahfen, Senior Lecturer, Department of Media and Communication, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958902022-12-06T03:37:34Z2022-12-06T03:37:34ZThe daunting task facing new Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim: uniting a divided country<p>It’s been some journey for Anwar Ibrahim, the new Malaysian prime minister appointed last month. It took 24 years to go from being the country’s deputy prime minister in 1998 to becoming the prime minister today, at 75 years old. Along the way, he was jailed twice, found guilty on charges of sodomy, <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-former-police-chief-who-beat-anwar-in-jail-raises-heckles-with-new">beaten up by the police commissioner</a>, charged with corruption and finally, received a royal pardon.</p>
<p>Many consider Anwar to be one of the only real Muslim democrats fighting to keep Malaysia multiracial and multicultural. On the surface, this was the fairytale ending for that fight.</p>
<p>No single coalition won the bare majority required to form government when the election results were announced on November 19. After five days and direct intervention by the king and the Malay Rulers, Anwar was picked to be the prime minister after proving he could cobble together a majority coalition under Pakatan Harapan (The Alliance of Hope).</p>
<p>It’s likely many Western governments breathed a sigh of relief on seeing Anwar triumph, as the other leading coalition, Perikatan Nasional (National Alliance), was running on a conservative, nationalistic Islamic platform. There wasn’t a single ethnic Chinese or Indian elected under the Perikatan Nasional, despite the fact non-Malays make up at least one-third of the population. </p>
<p>Anwar’s coalition, on the other hand, had more than 40 <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/646288">elected Chinese and Indian</a> MPs.</p>
<p>No wonder many are calling the Anwar administration the “New Malaysia”. Yet the challenges facing Anwar are colossal.</p>
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<h2>A divided Malaysia</h2>
<p>Malaysia after the polls is a totally divided country. The two biggest parties in parliament are Parti Islam Malaysia (part of the conservative Perikatan Nasional) and the Democratic Action Party (part of Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition). Parti Islam Malaysia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/gains-malaysias-hardline-islamist-party-challenge-new-pm-anwar-2022-11-25/">won 49 seats</a>, making it the largest single party in the 222-seat parliament. The Democratic Action Party is the second largest party with 40 seats.</p>
<p>Parti Islam Malaysia, as the name suggests, wants Malaysia to be a fully-fledged <a href="https://factsanddetails.com/southeast-asia/Malaysia/sub5_4d/entry-3669.html">Islamic state</a>, including throwing out the current constitution and Westminster style of government. It also strongly believes <a href="https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/70314">non-Muslims in Malaysia</a> shouldn’t enjoy full political rights, but instead be treated as “dhimmi”.</p>
<p>Dhimmi is an Islamic term for non-Muslims living in an Islamic state. Often translated into English as “protected person”, a dhimmi doesn’t enjoy equal political rights as a Muslim and must pay a special tax to the Islamic state to retain their protected status. This status includes rights like property, life and the right to follow non-Islamic religions. </p>
<p>Among Islamic scholars there are disputes over exactly what a dhimmi person is entitled to under an Islamic state, but they all agree a dhimmi isn’t recognised as a full citizen, as understood by the West, in an <a href="https://www.newageislam.com/islamic-society/dennis-ignatius/malaysian-national-unity-charter-disguised-scheme-divide-non-muslims-dhimmi-kafir/d/120255">Islamic state</a>.</p>
<p>The Democratic Action Party is totally opposite to Parti Islam Malaysia. Largely supported by non-Malays (receiving about <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/06/14/report-95-chinese-but-less-than-30-malays-voted-for-ph/">90% of the ethnic Chinese vote</a>), it believes in a liberal, secular Malaysia where everyone enjoys the same political rights.</p>
<p>The majority of the Malay community is becoming more conservative and supports Parti Islam Malaysia, while <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/political-instability-reigns-supreme-in-malaysia/">most non-Muslims</a> are equally strong in supporting the liberal, secular Democratic Action Party. Since their ideologies are poles apart, we are really looking at two different Malaysias.</p>
<h2>Racial politics</h2>
<p>If that wasn’t complicated enough, people often forget there’s a third distinct political circle. There are two Malaysian states on the island of Borneo – Sabah and Sarawak. They are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338422104_The_1963_Malaysia_Agreement_MA63_Sabah_And_Sarawak_and_the_Politics_of_Historical_Grievances">totally different</a> from Peninsular Malaysia in terms of history, demography, language and culture.</p>
<p>Sabah and Sarawak are very multiracial. Interracial and intercultural marriages are common, and there’s little in the way of a religious divide. While political Islam is trying to make headway in both states, locals have made it clear they reject the extreme form of Islam promoted by Parti Islam Malaysia.</p>
<p>For the past half century, the peoples of Sabah and Sarawak have watched the obsession with racial politics and the rise of political Islam in the peninsular with bewilderment and fear. Many remember a time prior to the 1970s when Islam in the region was not used as a weapon in the political arena.</p>
<p>Political Islam in Malaysia only really took off after the 1979 Iranian revolution and the influx of Saudi money for spreading Islam in the region in the 1980s.</p>
<p>Many in Malaysia saw the rise of political Islam, but nobody expected it to arrive so soon. For years people were warning that “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XapKMnHCE0Y">identity politics</a>” had taken over the Malay community and it was more or less unstoppable.</p>
<p>Parti Islam Malaysia had been laying the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/anwar-s-victory-not-only-malaysian-shockwave">groundwork</a> since the 1990s by building private Islamic kindergartens, Islamic high schools, and Tahfiz schools (Quran memory schools). This indoctrination was allowed to proceed because the Malaysian authorities were afraid of offending the religious establishment, and the state itself was in competition with Parti Islam Malaysia to show who was more Islamic.</p>
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<p>So we have three different Malaysias: Parti Islam Malaysia’s Islamic version, the Democratic Action Party’s secular version, and the pluralistic Borneo version.</p>
<p>Can Anwar Ibrahim, the man who wrote <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1760674.The_Asian_Renaissance">a book</a> on “his vision for a more tolerant, pluralistic Asia”, bring the three into a single modern, progressive state?</p>
<p>I don’t know, but I hope he succeeds. Malaysia has all the elements to be a successful progressive Muslim country, rather than the polarised country it is today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Chin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can Anwar, the man who wrote a book on “his vision for a more tolerant, pluralistic Asia”, bring together a divided Malaysia?James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925292022-10-24T14:09:35Z2022-10-24T14:09:35ZOrangutans: could ‘half-Earth’ conservation save the red ape?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491071/original/file-20221021-16-stieow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5039%2C3356&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">lukaszemanphoto / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Half-Earth is a proposal by the late naturalist and “father of biodiversity”, <a href="https://theconversation.com/e-o-wilsons-lifelong-passion-for-ants-helped-him-teach-humans-about-how-to-live-sustainably-with-nature-150045">EO Wilson</a>. In its original context, it proposes that half of the Earth’s surface should be designated a human-free nature reserve to preserve biodiversity.</p>
<p>The proposal of course raises some pretty big questions. What happens to the people that happen to live in the areas designated to become human free? Would we give up on biodiversity in the other half of Earth? And whose half should be chosen and who decides? Would richer countries continue on their current path and tell poorer nations, especially those in the tropics with relatively intact forests and marine systems, that their part of the world will from now on only be for nature? </p>
<p>Perhaps not unexpectedly, the grand idea of half-Earth has attracted a lot of criticism as being <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/halfearth-or-whole-earth-radical-ideas-for-conservation-and-their-implications/C62CCE8DA34480A048468EE39DF2BD05">unethical and infeasible</a>. It has even led to a distinct counter-proposal: whole-Earth. Sometimes known as <a href="https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/narratives-for-the-%E2%80%9Chalf-earth%E2%80%9D-and-%E2%80%9Csharing-the-planet%E2%80%9D-scenarios">sharing the planet</a>, this proposal focuses on things like equitable land management or finance, as its advocates argue that conservation will only ever work if we change the political and economic systems that are driving today’s crises.</p>
<p>It is difficult to judge the merits of half and whole-Earth without testing what either would mean on the ground. This is what we recently set out to do by applying our interpretations of these two options to the conservation of an animal we have studied for decades – the orangutan.</p>
<h2>Expert predictions</h2>
<p>We focused on Borneo, the world’s third largest island (only Greenland is significantly larger) and home of most orangutans. The Bornean orangutan is listed as “<a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/17975/123809220">critically endangered</a>” as its habitat is being destroyed and many are killed for food, for profit or simply because people fear them (direct killing remains a major problem <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-surveyed-borneos-orangutans-and-found-100-000-had-disappeared-91944">on a par with deforestation</a>). </p>
<p>We gathered a group of 33 other experts, mostly scientists with a specific track record of estimating orangutan population sizes. They were then asked (confidentially) what would happen to Bornean orangutans in the next decade under half- and whole-Earth conditions (translated as half and whole-Borneo) compared to continuing business-as-usual conservation practices. Our results are now published in the conservation journal <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S003060532200093X">Oryx</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rainforest being chopped down" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491075/original/file-20221021-3368-fanr5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deforestation in Borneo. Somewhere between 60,000 and 127,000 orangutans live on the island, which is split between Indonesia and Malaysia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rich Carey / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The experts predicted that business-as-usual would mean the total population of orangutans on Borneo would decline by around 27% between now and 2032. That is clearly not sufficient to support the protection of the species. </p>
<p>Half-Earth was predicted to strongly reduce orangutan declines. The experts, in fact, concluded that it would be comparatively easy to achieve and would reduce population decline by at least half compared to current management.</p>
<p>However, the experts thought whole-Earth would lead to greater forest loss and ape killing and a 56% population decline within the next decade. Whole-Earth approaches are valuable but may not be workable for the short-term orangutan conservation needs, because of political and economic realities on the ground.</p>
<p>The good news is that the experts predicted that, if orangutan killing and habitat loss were stopped, populations could rebound and reach 148% of their current size by 2122.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sad looking orangutan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491319/original/file-20221024-8249-ig161m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Bornean orangutan is officially listed as ‘critically endangered’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marketa Myskova / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite more than <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-surveyed-borneos-orangutans-and-found-100-000-had-disappeared-91944">100,000 orangutans lost</a> over the past two decades, the experts now see glimmers of hope. Indonesian and Malaysian <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0266178">deforestation rates are down</a>, as are expansion rates of oil palm and other crops. How should orangutan conservation proceed from here? What are the best strategies?</p>
<h2>Protections – on paper</h2>
<p>Interestingly, both the Indonesian and Malaysian governments had more or less reached the objective of legally designating half of the land mass as protected in their respective states of Kalimantan and Sabah.</p>
<p>With 67.1% of Indonesian Borneo designated as state forest, Indonesia already exceeds the half-Earth goal of locking in 50%. Malaysian Sabah has also exceeded the half-Earth goal, with 65% of the state remaining forested.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two shaded maps of an island" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491068/original/file-20221021-18-y8nkuv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Borneo rainforest cover in 1973 and 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CIFOR</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is all on paper though, and a lot of effective conservation investment and management would be needed to ensure that these orangutan habitats would indeed remain permanently forested, and that the other key threat – killing – is effectively addressed.</p>
<p>This is where elements of the whole-Earth approach are helpful, as it might prompt a more sensitive and equitable engagement with rural communities. Communities need to be given responsibility for coexisting with orangutans and there must be incentives to protect orangutans and their habitats. And companies – logging, mining, or plantations – need to be made legally responsible for ensuring that the protected orangutan can survive and thrive on the lands that they manage. Ultimately, we need to protect both orangutans and humans’ rights and access to their customary lands.</p>
<p>In the case of orangutans, half-Earth seems to be a good idea in the short term, especially with regard to habitat loss. Whole Earth-type approaches might be needed in the longer term to ultimately ensure a reduction in the number of orangutans who are killed or have to be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1617138120300534">captured and relocated</a>.</p>
<p>Neither approach is likely to provide a silver bullet. Every conservation context is going to be different and will require its own specific solution. It is therefore also important to just get on with conservation and not spend too much time thinking about ideal solutions.</p>
<p>It is not an easy path ahead, but solutions exist that can ensure the long-term survival and even recovery of the Asian red ape.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Meijaard receives funding from UWFSW. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serge Wich receives funding from UKRI, USFWS, and others.</span></em></p>Setting aside half of Borneo would significantly reduce their decline, say experts.Erik Meijaard, Adjunct Professor of Conservation, University of KentSerge Wich, Professor of Primate Biology, Liverpool John Moores UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1911682022-09-29T19:39:36Z2022-09-29T19:39:36ZIslamic finance provides an alternative to debt-based systems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486401/original/file-20220925-56614-ux1ea3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C98%2C6000%2C3889&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The growth of Islamic banks provides Muslims living in North America with options that reflect their beliefs.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For years, Muslims in North America have struggled to find ways to purchase homes while complying with Islamic law, or shariah. The Qur'an prohibits both the collection and payment of interest. For more than a million Canadians, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-muslim-homebuyers-flock-to-halal-financing-options-as-new-companies/">these religious structures limited access to conventional mortgages</a>.</p>
<p>Recently, however, companies such as the <a href="https://www.halalfinancialcorp.com/">Canadian Halal Financial Corporation</a> have emerged to fill this void. The creation of a vehicle in North America to enable Muslims to finance home ownership is part of an emerging global movement in finance.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OvnF2f2MZug?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The International Monetary Fund explains Islamic finance.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I spent over a year documenting <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo29124010.html">one centre of this global movement in Malaysia</a>. There, the government has sought to create an Islamic Wall Street. It seeks to make the country’s capital, Kuala Lumpur, what one official called the “New York of the Muslim world.” </p>
<p>I am continuing my research on Islamic finance at the <a href="https://ccl.uvic.ca">Counter Currency Laboratory</a> at the University of Victoria, where we study emerging debates on the future of money.</p>
<h2>A network of Islamic banks</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bnm.gov.my/islamic-banking-takaful">Central Bank of Malaysia has engineered</a> a comprehensive Islamic financial system consisting of a network of banking institutions. They have also fostered an Islamic money market, Islamic capital markets and an Islamic insurance, or takaful, system.</p>
<p>Across the country, institutions such as Bank Muamalat, HSBC Amanah and Standard Charter Saadiq, have readily sought to develop this market. Today, Islamic financial institutions aggressively promote shariah-compliant credit cards, home loans, and insurance policies. The government has also sought to spur innovation by opening its borders to competition from Islamic financial institutions based in the Arabian Gulf region.</p>
<p>On the streets of Kuala Lumpur, the ubiquity of Islamic banking and finance in the country was hard to miss. Bright advertisements offered consumers credit cards that provided “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59840-2">free takaful coverage, low fees, and no compounding finance charges</a>.”</p>
<p>Inside Kuala Lumpur’s massive ultramodern train station, eye-catching advertisements promoted Islamic finance. <a href="https://www.alrajhibank.com.sa/en">Al-Rajhi Bank</a>, a Saudi firm that bills itself as the world’s largest Islamic bank, encouraged potential customers to “Get There Fast” with “Al Rahji Personal Financing.” On the other side of the station, the mainly Qatari-held <a href="https://www.mbsbbank.com/">Asian Finance Bank</a> boldly proclaimed that it was “moving the world to Islamic banking.”</p>
<p>Malaysian currency is readily available at the numerous ATMs owned by one of the over 20 Islamic banks operating in the country. Long lines often snaked back from the terminals during peak shopping times. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="customers line up in front of bank machines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487357/original/file-20220929-25-e56ozt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During peak shopping times, queues at ATMs can be quite long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shariah contracts</h2>
<p>The growth of Islamic finance has spurred a compelling intellectual and practical problem. As one Islamic finance professional in Malaysia relayed it to me: “What, exactly, is the ‘Islamic’ in Islamic finance?”</p>
<p>This raises the question of what is entailed in the Islamic prohibition against interest.</p>
<p>Two distinct techniques have been developed to avoid the payment of interest. One interlocutor described these options as either “shariah-compliant” or “shariah-based.”</p>
<h2>Mortgage alternatives</h2>
<p>A shariah-compliant contract, such as a murabaha, uses the sale and repurchase of an asset on a deferred-payment basis. </p>
<p>There are various ways a murabaha can be structured. In Malaysia, the type of murabaha commonly used as a substitute for a mortgage involved four steps. First, the customer identified a property that they would like to own. Second, the financial institution purchased the property from the current owner. </p>
<p>Third, the institution sold the property to the customer at a markup, with repayment scheduled on an instalment basis. Finally, the customer paid the required instalments on a periodic basis until all agreed upon payments are complete. </p>
<p>These contracts circumvent the Qur’anic prohibition on charging interest by having two distinct sales. The institution buys the property from the current owner and then immediately sells it at a markup to the customer. </p>
<p>Many bankers prefer shariah-compliant contracts — such as the murabaha — because they use a workaround to replicate a conventional loan contract. All of the infrastructure already held by a bank, such as the computer systems and back office process, can be easily adapted to this type of arrangement.</p>
<p>However, the rate of the markup on this contract closely tracked prevailing interest rates. Many experts in Malaysia were critical of this contract. They thought that, while it met the letter of Islamic law, it did not conform to its spirit.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man walks in front of a bank with a yellow sign that reads MAYBANK ISLAMIC" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/487354/original/file-20220929-14-qut1hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maybank Islamic Bank is one of Malaysia’s largest Islamic financial institutions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sharing profits</h2>
<p>Critics and reformers favour a second technique for enabling financing, which they contend is “shariah-based.” This technique is premised on partnership principles and is called a musharakah. </p>
<p>This type of joint venture contract was commonly used on the Arabian peninsula even prior to the revelation of Islam. <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400820474/partnership-and-profit-in-medieval-islam">It became a standard economic arrangement in the classical Islamic world</a>. </p>
<p>A musharakah is a profit-sharing contract in which two or more parties agree to pool their assets and labour for the purpose of making a profit. </p>
<p>In Malaysia, Islamic finance experts developed what they called a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.18646/2056.41.17-003">diminishing musharakah</a>.” In this contract, the financial institution and the homeowner would jointly purchase a home together. Over time, the homeowner progressively buys out the equity held by the financial institution by paying a monthly instalment. </p>
<p>In addition to the equity portion, the instalment also consisted of a profit margin. The profit margin was indexed to the prices of rent for comparable homes in the adjacent neighbourhood.</p>
<h2>What kind of alternative?</h2>
<p>Those seeking to reform Islamic finance favoured shariah-based contracts. They viewed them as a more authentic alternative to the shariah-compliant contracts.</p>
<p>Questions regarding the legitimacy of shariah-based and shariah-compliant contracts illustrate the vibrant debates that lie at the heart of Islamic finance. Which option Muslim consumers ultimately choose will determine the extent to which Islamic finance becomes an alternative to the debt-based system that prevails in most of the world today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daromir Rudnyckyj receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Shariah law informs financial contracts and credit systems, and the growth of Islamic financing options provides an alternative to current debt-based banking systems.Daromir Rudnyckyj, Professor, Anthropology, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900882022-09-11T16:13:05Z2022-09-11T16:13:05ZAfter oil: what Malaysia and Iran may look like in a post-fossil-fuel future<p>As the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-key-points-in-the-ipcc-report-on-climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation-178195">devastation of climate change</a> makes the need to decarbonise clearer by the day, countries face the question of what to do with their old fossil fuel infrastructure. While some <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-activism-has-so-far-been-fairly-peaceful-heres-why-that-might-change-185625">environmental activists</a> have taken to <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/21/us/dakota-access-pipeline-vandalism/index.html">sabotaging</a> the carbon economy on the back of its emissions in the Global North, the picture is different in oil-producing countries of the Global South, where energy infrastructure has fed communities for decades. There, the emphasis is placed on memory and institutionalisation.</p>
<h2>Oil’s conquest of Iran and Malaysia</h2>
<p>The cases of Malaysia and Iran, where oil has significantly contributed to economic growth, give us a glimpse into how authorities are currently reckoning with their fossil fuel heritage. In the 20th century, the arrival of international oil companies in the major port cities on the Persian Gulf in Iran and the South China Sea in Malaysia transformed the built environment, accelerated urbanisation and impacted peoples’ everyday lives. Even today, the dynamics and actors of oil in Iran and Malaysia continue to reshape industry, society, culture, and politics while leaving their mark on the built environment and urban spaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483306/original/file-20220907-9232-ap277n.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first oil rig in Miri, a city in Sarawak, northeastern Malaysia, located near the border of Brunei.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_first_oil_rig_in_Miri_(Grand_Old_Lady).JPG">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Founded in 1978, the <a href="https://ticcih.org/">International Committee for the Conservation of the Industrial Heritage</a> (TICCIH) is an international organisation established to explore, protect, conserve and explain the remains of industrialisation. In 2020, it published the <a href="https://ticcih.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Oil-industry-thematic-report.pdf">first global assessment of the heritage of petroleum production</a>, the oil industry and the places, structures, sites, and landscapes that might be chosen to conserve for their historical, technical, social, or architectural attributes. <a href="https://ticcih.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Oil-industry-thematic-report.pdf">In a 2020 report</a>, the organisation defined the heritage of the petroleum industry as </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“the most significant fixed, tangible evidence for the discovery, exploitation, production, and consumption of petroleum products and their impact on human and natural landscapes”.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Iran’s petroleum museums</h2>
<p>Less than a decade ago, Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum began to consider establishing <a href="http://www.petromuseum.ir/content/32/Editorial/695/Iran-Petroleum-Museum-Introduction-and-Goals">museums</a> with a view to preserving the country’s industrial heritage. Those in the <a href="https://philpapers.org/archive/MEHPIM.pdf">port city of Adaban</a> in the country’s southwest, include an old refinery, gas station, and the oldest oil-related technical training school. In sections of the old ports, passersby can appreciate cranes and heavy machinery, such as the <a href="http://www.petromuseum.ir/content/30/Treasury-of-Objects/713/Akwan-Crane"><em>Akwan</em></a> and <a href="http://www.petromuseum.ir/content/30/Treasury-of-Objects/722/Sulfur-Crane"><em>Sulfur</em></a> cranes, as well as an exhibition about the reconstruction of the refineries following the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).</p>
<p>The country is projecting to open other <a href="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/457071/Petroleum-museum-to-be-established-in-southwest-Iran">oil museums in major oil port cities</a>. One of them is Masjed Suleiman, a city in the southwestern province of Khuzestan widely recognised as the birthplace of the oil industry in the Middle East. Its museum hosts the oldest oil recovery site in the region. In Tehran, the <a href="https://en.shana.ir/news/316106/5-Petro-Museums-across-Iran">Museum of Oil Industry Technology</a> will detail the nature and importance of oil, gas, and petrochemicals since 1901. It was in that year that the British speculator <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Knox_D%27Arcy">William D’Arcy</a> received a concession to explore and develop southern Iran’s oil resources.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=598&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483297/original/file-20220907-18-i50gah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Museums of the Iranian oil industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iran Petroleum Museums and Documents</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When the oil industry refuses to die</h2>
<p>In Malaysia, the oil industry is omnipresent in everyday life, which raises challenges to global decarbonisation efforts. The national oil company Petronas is visible everywhere, from the dissemination of scholarships, the establishment of a university, and the iconic Petronas Twin Towers to the <a href="https://theses.gla.ac.uk/337/1/2008ishakphd.pdf">transformation of sleepy towns into sprawling industrial complexes</a>. The industry goes back to the early 1900s, when oil was struck in the jungles of Miri, Sarawak, under British rule.</p>
<p>The conservation of Malaysia’s oil legacy has proven somewhat challenging, as most rigs are located offshore and sites still very much in use. Efforts have also been limited and lack a centralised plan. In a federal nation, each state dictates its own policies, which extends to museums. Under the Sarawak Tourism Board, the <a href="https://sarawaktourism.com/attraction/canada-hill/">oil rig in Miri</a> has been transformed into a museum and tourist site but remains the only one of its kind.</p>
<p>Conservation efforts have mainly focused on education with an emphasis on science and technology. Most attractions, such as the <a href="https://petrosains.com.my">Petrosains Discovery Centre</a> and the <a href="https://www.utp.edu.my/Pages/Home.aspx">Petronas University of Technology</a>, prioritise public awareness and learning. Malaysia’s national narrative is consistently upbeat – that the oil industry has improved society, transformed of remote villages, advanced educational opportunities, and led to dramatic changes in landscapes and cityscapes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483302/original/file-20220907-23-hg03kz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An oil rig off the coast of Malaysia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided/Getty</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Toward post-pandemic and post-oil futures</h2>
<p>Malaysia and Iran have taken different approaches when preserving the oil industry as part of their <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/MEHTFL">tangible and intangible cultural heritage</a>. Nonetheless, a common element of is to separate the oil industry from its imperial pasts by preserving historical sites and narrating them as part of the national narrative.</p>
<p>For Malaysia, Petronas and the oil industry is promoted as a <a href="https://www.petronas.com/our-brand/festive-ad/tv-commercials">success story</a>, intertwining petrol and nationalism. The preservation of the Miri oil rig as a tourist site serves the dual purpose of an attempt to safeguard the historical value of the location and to integrate it as a part of Sarawak’s story. </p>
<p>However, rising concerns about climate change, the environment, and corporate responsibility are increasing pressure on oil companies to reduce their carbon footprint by supporting clean and renewable energy, but these efforts appear to lag behind companies such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-car-chargers-overtake-pumps-profitability-race-2022-01-14/">British Petroleum, which has moved into electric charging and renewable energy</a>. Furthermore, the Covid-19 pandemic caused consumer demand for oil to plummet, which will likely continue to depress Iranian and Malaysian exports for the months to come.</p>
<h2>The impact of the Covid-19 and climate crises</h2>
<p>In the case of Iran, the <a href="https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/Covid-19-and-oil-price-crash-twin-crises-impacting-saudi-iran-relations">Covid-19 crisis</a> and the <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Considers-Allowing-People-To-Invest-In-Oil-On-Local-Exchange.html">fluctuations in oil prices</a> coincide with intensified sanctions by the United States against Iran, also known as the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09700161.2020.1841099?journalCode=rsan20">“maximum pressure campaign”</a>. Despite its rich oil and gas resources, the country needs new technology investments and development plans to prepare for the post-fossil-fuel future. However, that will be hard to achieve without resolving <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-is-more-relaxed-about-oil-spike-than-europe-which-helps-explain-differences-over-iran-129476">US-Iran tensions</a> and easing sanctions. To balance future economic growth with social development and environmental protection, Iran needs to invest more in plans for sustainable development and transition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/oil-why-higher-prices-will-complicate-the-energy-transition-157199">less environmentally harmful energy sources</a>.</p>
<p>Malaysia’s response acknowledges of the twin effects of Covid-19 and global warming: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/malaysias-petronas-sees-oil-demand-fragile-uncertain-2021-12-28/">change in weather patterns and a decrease in demand for oil</a>. Since the 2010s, there has been some movement in the energy sector to prepare for the post oil future. Over nearly a decade, Petronas has focused on <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/malaysias-petronas-launches-clean-energy-firm-lead-carbon-free-push-2022-06-16/">solar power, wind energy and clean hydrogen</a>, pledging to <a href="https://www.petronas.com/our-business/clean-energy-solutions">achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>More than 80,000 readers look to The Conversation France’s newsletter for expert insights into the world’s most pressing issues</em>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/newsletters/la-newsletter-quotidienne-5?utm_source=inline-70ksignup">Sign up now</a>]</p>
<p>But it took until 2020 amid the Covid-19 crisis and growing international awareness over the climate emergency for momentum to pick up. In 2021, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources set targets to <a href="https://www.seda.gov.my/reportal/myrer/">decarbonise the country by 45% by 2030</a>. While these efforts have been applauded, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2020.00021/full">some hindrances</a> remain, such as financial constraints and a lack of engagement with nongovernmental organisations.</p>
<h2>Lessons from Malaysia’s palm oil heritage</h2>
<p>Given changing global attitudes toward the oil industry, the question arises how the industrial heritage of Malaysia and Iran can be envisioned. Will oil rigs become relics of human greed instead of human advancement? And how will the national narrative reconcile this new reality with the importance of oil in the countries’ decolonisation process?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483292/original/file-20220907-18-ouj692.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1099&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1950s British newspaper describes Abadan as ‘a monument of British enterprise and industry’ (September 8, 1951).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Illustrated London News</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For Malaysia, it’s a question that has already been asked regarding <a href="https://theconversation.com/palm-oil-boycott-could-actually-increase-deforestation-sustainable-products-are-the-solution-106733">palm oil and deforestation</a>. Environmental activists in the country and abroad have highlighted their negative impact, which resulted in poor publicity for the country. However, through government engagement with youth and activists, there has been some improvement with how palm oil is viewed especially with regards <a href="https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/mspo-sustainable-palm-oil-redefined">to sustainability efforts</a>.</p>
<p>Oil heritage perhaps needs to walk a similar path, encouraging honest conversations between policymakers, NGOs, industry stakeholders and historical organisations. The Covid-19 pandemic has also provided vital lessons and introduced new practices emphasising corporate responsibility toward workers. Improved governmental cooperation has also shown that it is possible to work toward common goals, which can be expanded to issues such as heritage. If implemented appropriately, such approaches may spell a bright future for how we view oil as part of a national narrative.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485372/original/file-20220919-20-pguqfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/next50/">50th anniversary of the World Heritage Convention</a> (16 November 2022): World Heritage as a source of resilience, humanity and innovation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>With accelerating climate change making the need to decarbonise clearer by the day, two oil-dependent countries weigh how to preserve and present their historical fossil fuel infrastructure.Rowena Abdul Razak, Guest Teacher in International History, London School of Economics and Political ScienceAsma Mehan, Assistant Professor in Architecture and Urban History, Texas Tech UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1834402022-07-27T04:56:21Z2022-07-27T04:56:21Z3 reasons why women leaders actually matter for women<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475772/original/file-20220725-55319-7pex47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=83%2C2%2C1856%2C1155&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indonesia's first and only female president Megawati Sukarnoputri at a campaign rally in 1999.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Perugia/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are currently just 30 female presidents and prime ministers worldwide. Moldova and Barbados are the only two countries where women occupy both the positions of president and prime minister, while Bangladesh is the only nation where a woman has led for more years than a man over the last half century.</p>
<p>Clearly, women leaders matter as a question of gender equity, but as my <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-woman-president-9780192848918?facet_narrowbypubdate_facet=Next%203%20months&lang=en&cc=al">research</a> shows, they may also matter to women in other ways.</p>
<p>I looked at four different female presidents in three different political systems: the Philippines’ first female president, Corazon Aquino (1986–1992) and its second female leader, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001–2010); Indonesia’s first and only female president, Megawati Sukarnoputri (2001–2004); and Sri Lanka’s Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (CBK).</p>
<p>CBK, who was Sri Lanka’s fifth president from 1994 to 2005, followed in the footsteps of her mother, Sirimavo Bandarnaike, the world’s first female elected head of government in 1960.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475773/original/file-20220725-17170-cz2435.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga meets South Africa’s President Nelson Mandela at the Commonweath Heads of Government meeting in 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Max Nash/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I was interested in the difference these women leaders made on women’s lives through the law. However, I did not want to blindly place a positive spin on the impact women have as presidents. </p>
<p>My research used the <a href="https://www.genderlawindex.org/">Gender Legislative Index</a>, which relies on human evaluators and machine learning to determine how well laws advance women’s rights. The index indicated whether the laws enacted during these leaders’ tenures were “good” for women. </p>
<p>Of course, “women” are not a monolithic category with the same interests and needs. And nor are women leaders all the same. But there are three reasons why women leaders may matter more to women.</p>
<h2>1. Bringing women up the ladder</h2>
<p>Appointment powers are central to presidential leadership. President Macapagal Arroyo herself acknowledged to me that President Aquino had “paved the way” for her, in multiple ways. </p>
<p>Aquino had invited Macapagal-Arroyo to join her government as Assistant Secretary of the Department of Trade and Industry. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475770/original/file-20220725-40530-odxn32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The then Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, right, is greeted by former president Fidel Ramos, as former president Corazon Aquino, centre, looks on in 2003.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bullit Marquez/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cabinet members directly influence what bills are introduced into the national legislature. Yet women have traditionally held fewer ministerial posts. Those held were often positions with discernible “feminine” characteristics or “low-prestige” portfolios, such as ageing, children and the family.</p>
<p>Of the four women I studied, like female leaders in Latin America, three appointed more women to their cabinets than the male leaders who preceded them. President Megawati, whose female appointees matched her predecessor, was the exception. </p>
<p>Aquino was known for appointing empowered political women to her administration such as <a href="https://www.usc.edu.ph/lourdes-reynes-quisumbing-1921-2017#:%7E:text=In%201986%2C%20Lourdes%20joined%20the,Education%2C%20Culture%2C%20and%20Sports.">Dr Lourdes Reynes Quisumbing, the country’s first female Secretary of Education</a> and Miriam Defensor-Santiago, appointed head of the Bureau of Immigration and Deportation. Defensor-Santiago later ran for president (unsuccessfully) and was the first Southeast Asian <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/passing-senator-miriam-defensor-santiago">elected to the International Criminal Court</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475777/original/file-20220725-55319-i88qc2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Miriam Defensor Santiago pictured in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark R. Cristino/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Among Kumaratunga’s seven female appointees, one was responsible for housing, construction and development, a significant portfolio in Sri Lanka. </p>
<p>Arroyo appointed a remarkable 12 women cabinet members (compared to two under her predecessor). Such female appointees potentially (although not necessarily) open the door to better representation of women’s interests.</p>
<h2>2. Legislating for women</h2>
<p>Few women leaders in history have been acknowledged as advocates for women. Yet in certain fields, laws may be enacted at a faster pace when women’s groups mobilise more resources to exploit a window of opportunity. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=906&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476234/original/file-20220727-21-ejyizd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Indonesia’s <a href="https://evaw-global-database.unwomen.org/en/countries/asia/indonesia/2004/law-no-23-of-2004-regarding-elimination-of-household-violence">Elimination of Violence in the Household Act</a>, signed into law by President Megawati in 2004, took seven years to enact. As a point of contrast, Indonesia’s Marriage Law (Law No. 1/1974), which regulated polygamy and forced marriage and better protected women’s assets, was debated for 75 years before passing. </p>
<p>In Sri Lanka, CBK managed the Asian tsunami at the tail-end of her tenure. In the post-tsunami recovery, she focused on widows, livelihood assistance for women and the appointment of women in disaster management committees at all levels.</p>
<p>President Macapagal-Arroyo was a senator when she authored a bill to combat violence against women. It was eventually re-tabled and expanded into the Philippines’ Anti-Violence against Women and their Children Act, which she signed into law in 2004. Yet Macapagal-Arroyo’s role in the law’s enactment is often brushed over by women’s groups.</p>
<h2>3. The significance of ‘Madam’ President</h2>
<p>The role model effect is hard to prove but everywhere I turned, informants noted the significance of having a woman lead. As the first female presidents of their nations, Aquino, Kumaratunga and Megawati shifted norms around politics, which had been seen as a place exclusively for men and inappropriate for women. </p>
<p>The utterance of “She” or “Madam” means far more than a simple shift in gender pronoun. Sri Lanka’s “mother-daughter duo” as president and prime minister was a stark contrast to Sri Lanka today. Male leader, President Rajapaksa, recently fled the country after severe economic mismanagement, only to be replaced by another man, the former prime minister (Ranil Wickramasinghe) – hardly a new beginning.</p>
<p>While comparisons have their limitations, the 11 years of leadership under CBK were a period of relative stability for a nation that has been plagued by increasingly repressive (male) leaders in recent years.</p>
<p>But the role mode effect of a female leader can only last so long. For women leaders to be part of a nation’s future and not just its history, parties need to invest in enabling women currently engaged in politics to rise and successfully contest for the top job.</p>
<h2>Not just a question of gender</h2>
<p>There is something distinct about women’s leadership. Yet, in the words of one of Sri Lanka’s leading female Muslim activists, “the choice of leaders, their capacity and their leadership, depends on many qualities which are more human than women or men”.</p>
<p>It is important to acknowledge that there were setbacks for Filipino women’s reproductive health under Presidents Aquino and Macapagal Arroyo, such as the latter promoting <a href="https://arrow.org.my/publication/srr-monitoring-report-for-the-philippines/">non-scientific natural family planning</a>. </p>
<p>In Indonesia meanwhile, a <a href="https://publicofficialsfinancialdisclosure.worldbank.org/sites/fdl/files/assets/law-library-files/Indonesia_President%20and%20VP%20Electoral%20Law_2003_en.pdf">gender equality quota </a> – whereby 30% of a party’s candidates must be women – was described as the most important law introduced during President Megawati’s tenure. However, she was its primary opponent and only signed the bill into law when she feared the loss of the “women’s vote” in 2004. (An election which she did, in fact, lose.) </p>
<p>It remains to be seen what the current crop of female leaders will mean for millions of women. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475776/original/file-20220725-26-9rsi1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Heikki Saukkomaa/AP</span></span>
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<p>Finland’s Sanna Marin, who leads a five-party coalition all headed by women, has called for more <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/gender-equality-finnish-pm/">gender-responsive laws</a>. Meanwhile Barbados’ Mia Mottley shifted the parameters of debate in her nation with a recent powerful <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhlcN3_9tvw">climate change speech</a>. </p>
<p>Mottley’s question, “when will leaders lead?” might just inspire the current cohort of female leaders to do more and to do better for fellow women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramona Vijeyarasa receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Development Leadership Program.</span></em></p>Four different female presidents led three Asian nations in recent decades. What does their legislative record tell us about the impact women leaders can have on women’s lives?Ramona Vijeyarasa, Senior Lecturer and Juris Doctor Program Head, University of Technology Sydney and Women's Leadership Institute Australia Research Fellow, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842462022-06-06T05:17:54Z2022-06-06T05:17:54ZMarcos junior is the latest beneficiary of ‘bloodlines’ in Southeast Asian politics<p>While there is widespread <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/11/asia/marcos-philippines-president-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html">nervousness</a> at the victory of Ferdinand Marcos junior in the Philippines, for many of us it was a reminder that “blood” is still an important element in the politics of the developing world. </p>
<p>Before you get smug, it’s called “political dynasties” in the developed world. In the US, it’s the Kennedy, Bush and Clinton families.</p>
<p>In much of Southeast Asia, the idea of political blood is taken much more seriously. Despite the modernisation process, politics is still stuck in the old ways.</p>
<p>A brief look is disturbing. In the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III both succeeded their parents as president of the Philippines. In Indonesia, Megawati Sukarnoputri is the daughter of the country’s first president, Sukarno. In Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra succeeded her brother Thaksin as prime minister. Singapore is ruled by Lee Hsien Loong, son of Lee Kuan Yew. Najib Razak is the son of Malaysia’s second prime minister, Abdul Razak Hussein. And Hun Manet, the son of Hun Sen, is almost certain to take over Cambodia soon.</p>
<p>These are the most prominent ones. The truth is thousands of others in the region hold high political office due to their bloodline. </p>
<p>Others are waiting: Mahathir Mohamad’s son Mukhriz in Malaysia, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the son of former Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), Panthongtae Shinawatra, the only son of Thaksin, all have a shot at their nation’s highest office. Hishammuddin Hussein, son of Malaysia’s third prime minister, is in the same boat. If they did not come from rich and powerful families, it is unlikely they would ever attain high office.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-well-has-the-morrison-government-handled-relations-with-southeast-asia-181958">How well has the Morrison government handled relations with Southeast Asia?</a>
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<p>Are they simply a natural product of political families? The argument goes that if you grow up in that kind of household you cannot escape your “calling”. Some even liken it to “national service”. The other argument is that since it’s a democracy, if the polity voted for them, that should be the end of the argument.</p>
<p>But the reality is that political dynasties are created, and often accompanied by formalities steeped in custom and traditional political culture. They are nothing to do with meritocracy. In Southeast Asia, it’s often linked to “patron-clientism”, where a powerful person (patron) and a follower (client) mutually benefit from the relationship. </p>
<p>In a nutshell, why should you hold high office just because you are born with a certain surname or lucky enough to be born into a particular family?</p>
<p>In almost all cases, political dynasty members use their superior wealth, connections and education to rise. Along the way, they attract the followers of their forebears and keep them loyal with patronage, sometimes called the “coat-tail effect”. I take the view that political dynasties, in all societies, are bad in the long run and have negative consequences for political development.</p>
<p>First, political dynasties hinder meritocracy and fair competition. In rural areas of Southeast Asia, it is extremely rare for a political unknown to defeat a “name” that has been in power for generations. This explains why the power bases of many political dynasties are often found in rural constituencies.</p>
<p>Second, political dynasties promote the idea of political elitism. That is, the selection process is closed and the leaders are drawn from the same pool of people.</p>
<p>Third, political dynasties are closely linked to economic power. Concentration of political power among a few families benefits a narrow set of economic interests. This process institutionalises economic and income inequalities and creates a culture in which “connections” become the most important criteria for everything. These political families are able to claim a major portion of the state’s resources legally through their control of the political system, leaving the country vulnerable to corrupt practices.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mutual-respect-and-genuine-partnership-how-a-labor-government-could-revamp-our-relationship-with-indonesia-183116">'Mutual respect and genuine partnership': how a Labor government could revamp our relationship with Indonesia</a>
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<p>However, it seems political dynasties’ hold on politics in Southeast Asia remains unshakeable. Some countries have “term limits” to stop political dynasties, but they are totally ineffective in practice. For example, there is nothing to stop a brother or sister from the same political family succeeding each other.</p>
<p>Will social media and the internet change the situation? It is very unlikely. The most important criterion for political change is probably education, which means an education system that teaches citizens to be critical and think in a rational way.</p>
<p>But in Southeast Asia, state education is about producing citizens who obey authority – in bureaucratic speak they are called “loyal” or “patriotic” citizens. </p>
<p>So, should we be surprised by Bong-Bong Marcos’s victory? Not in the least. There will be similar victories by people with very familiar names in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Chin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Political families have a strong hold on power in Southeast Asian countries – often to the detriment of the people they serve.James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825012022-05-24T13:40:57Z2022-05-24T13:40:57ZThe impact of Indonesia’s ban on palm oil exports reverberated across the globe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463795/original/file-20220517-823-qec9vd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C26%2C5973%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer holds kernels of oil palm fruits in Jakarta, Indonesia, on May 17, 2022. Indonesia, one of the world's top palm oil exporters has banned exports of cooking oil and its raw materials to reduce domestic shortages and hold down skyrocketing prices since late last month. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tatan Syuflana)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid an ongoing <a href="https://ipes-food.org/_img/upload/files/AnotherPerfectStorm.pdf">global food price crisis</a>, vegetable oils are registering record-breaking highs. According to data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the price for edible oils <a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">rose to almost 250 per cent of standard price levels</a>.</p>
<p>Over the past two years, labour restrictions, climate change and violent conflict have contributed to this latest oil crisis. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly across six continents, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/vegoils-world-output-insight-idTRNIKBN2G1019">lockdowns resulted in work restrictions</a>, affecting production sites and processing facilities in strategic locations such as Indonesia and Malaysia. These two countries are the top producers of palm oil, accounting for approximately 40 per cent of the vegetable oil market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463077/original/file-20220513-27-p09hgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index depicts monthly fluctuations in the trading prices of common edible oils compared to the 2014-16 standard reference period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(FAO, adapted by the author)</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The other major commodities in this sector — soybean oil, canola oil and sunflower oil — fared even worse. A combination of heatwaves and droughts wiped out millions of tonnes in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-farmers-struggle-drought-batters-southern-soy-crop-2022-01-12/">South America’s soybean harvest</a> and decimated <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8152069/wheat-canola-crops-canada-drought/">the canola harvest in Canada</a>, which fell to a nine-year low. </p>
<p>In a catastrophic turn of events in Europe, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113882">the Russian invasion of Ukraine</a> caused the price of sunflower oil to soar. When shipments of the important export crop came to a halt due to conflict-induced <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf">logistical bottlenecks in the supply chain</a>, the market reacted instantly: futures contracts for sunflower oil <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">suddenly swelled to US$2,361</a> from the previous year’s US$1,404 per tonne.</p>
<p>Given the market disruptions, commodity traders turned their attention back to palm oil, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/feb/19/palm-oil-ingredient-biscuits-shampoo-environmental">the cheapest and most abundant vegetable oil</a>. Oil palm plantations yield an average of <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/palm-oil">approximately three tonnes of oil per hectare each year</a>, while other oil-producing crops generate less than one tonne of crude oil per hectare. </p>
<p>As the leading producer, Indonesia accounts for almost two-thirds of global palm oil exports. So, when Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced an unprecedented <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-palm-oil-industry-braces-upcoming-export-ban-2022-04-27/">ban on palm oil exports</a> in late April, he sent a shock wave across agri-food markets. What moved him to take such a radical step?</p>
<h2>Soaring domestic demand, rising political pressure</h2>
<p>When the price of vegetable oils began to rise steeply, the Indonesian government scrambled to find effective domestic measures that would protect consumers. Policymakers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-palmoil-idUSKCN2LC1AB">initially decreed a price cap on palm oil</a> and imposed a limit of two litres per customer as a rationing measure. </p>
<p>They later <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-hikes-palm-oil-export-levy-maximum-375-per-tonne-2022-03-18/">increased the levy on palm oil exports</a> and offered direct cash transfers to low-income citizens to subsidize purchases of the staple food. None of their strategies solved the problem.</p>
<p>For palm oil producers, it is much more lucrative to sell their stock abroad instead of to the Indonesian market. The small group of businesses that control the country’s palm oil sector benefited financially from the high international prices for edible oils. By <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/04/with-ban-on-palm-oil-exports-indonesia-reaps-condemnation-and-praise/">allocating more and more of their oil to the export market</a>, they created a bottleneck in the domestic supply chain.</p>
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<img alt="A group of people holding banners and slogans stand behind mounds of oil palm fruits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463794/original/file-20220517-13-n7mcf9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Farmers shout slogans as they display oil palm fruits during a protest near the presidential palace in Jakarta, Indonesia, on May 17, 2022. Dozens of palm oil farmers staged the rally urging the government to lift the ban on palm oil exports, saying that it has caused significant drop to their income.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tatan Syuflana)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Public discontent grew in light of the administration’s inability to stabilize prices, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/asia/indonesia-protests-tear-gas-students-jokowi-cooking-oil-intl-hnk/index.html">unleashing a wave of protests</a> in mid-April. The pressure escalated towards the end of the month. Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim celebration that marks the end of the month-long fasting during Ramadan, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/28/infographic-when-is-eid-al-fitr-2022">took place in the beginning of May this year</a>.</p>
<p>Preparations for the festivities caused an upsurge in the demand of cooking oil in Indonesia. For the <a href="https://en.antaranews.com/news/227881/eid-vibe-returns-after-two-years-of-restrictions">first time in two years of COVID-19 restrictions</a>, people were hosting extravagant feasts. It was within this context that the Indonesian government ultimately decided to ban the export of crude and refined palm oil.</p>
<h2>Implications around the world</h2>
<p>Although the export ban temporarily quieted domestic critics, the rest of the world was bewildered by the new trade policy. Immediate repercussions were felt most strongly in <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/indonesia-palm-oil-export-ban-dents-fmcg-stocks-oil-companies-rally/articleshow/91064018.cms">populous nations that rely on the import of vegetable oils</a> for their cooking needs, like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Egypt.</p>
<p>While North American and European consumers rarely use palm oil in their frying pans, they encounter refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil on a daily basis. It is a versatile ingredient used in <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/which-everyday-products-contain-palm-oil">processed foods and consumer goods</a> including shower gel, dish soap, lipstick, cookies, instant noodles and packaged bread. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The hands of women hold various beauty and toiletry products like soap, lotion and toothpaste." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464057/original/file-20220518-19-23vuj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palm oil plantation workers hold products made by Western companies that source palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These, and other household goods, <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/04/28/palm-oil-shortage-indonesia-ban-food-shampoo-cosmetics-prices-inflation/">will likely be affected by the global vegetable oil crunch</a>, but the impacts tend to be most dire for the world’s poorest regions. </p>
<p>From previous market disruptions, we know that <a href="https://pubs.iied.org/x00107">rising food prices fuel harmful behaviours</a>, ranging from panic purchases and commodity speculation, to an increased appetite for land acquisitions in the agri-food sector. This greatly affects low-income countries whose economies rely chiefly on agriculture and the export of primary goods. The majority of these nations are <a href="https://unctad.org/topic/commodities/state-of-commodity-dependence">located in sub-Saharan Africa and South America</a>.</p>
<p>Avoiding a spiral of adverse effects will require policy measures designed to keep excessive speculation in check. Enhancing transparency in the global food market requires prioritizing the needs of farmers and consumers rather than <a href="https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/experts-warn-that-excessive-commodity-speculation-threatens-food-security/">those who seek to profit financially</a> from the vegetable oil price hikes. </p>
<p>The end of the Indonesian palm oil ban is an important first step to return the situation to normal. Three weeks after stopping exports, President Widodo has just <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-palmoil/indonesia-to-lift-palm-oil-export-ban-from-monday-president-says-idUSKCN2N50J3">reversed his decision in response to mounting pressures from palm oil producers</a>. While this move may lead to new protests on the streets of Jakarta, it is good news for international markets in a tumultuous time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182501/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffi Hamann receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Over the past two years, labour restrictions, climate change and violent conflict have contributed to the record-breaking high prices of vegetable oil around the world.Steffi Hamann, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Development Studies, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796842022-03-25T03:56:05Z2022-03-25T03:56:05ZTikTok is propagandists’ new tool to win elections in Southeast Asia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453797/original/file-20220323-15-1e3jmla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C6%2C4063%2C2719&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Solen Feyissa on Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scholars and political observers have raised <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/southeast-asia-on-the-forefront-of-disinformation-for-profit-and-power/">concerns</a> over public opinion manoeuvring on social media in Southeast Asia as three countries in the region - <a href="http://bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-60089457">the Philippines</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/malaysias-grand-old-party-scores-decisive-victory-in-pivotal-state-election/">Malaysia</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/indonesia-sets-date-for-2024-election-ending-jokowi-speculation">Indonesia</a>, are gearing up for elections. </p>
<p>Propagandists’ strategic manoeuvring of public opinion on social media remains a dangerous threat to democracy in Southeast Asia. Over the years, strategic use of <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/media/event-highlights/webinar-on-creating-chaos-and-consent-cyber-troops-and-organised-propaganda-in-indonesias-cybersphere/">cybertroopers in Southeast Asian countries</a> has been prominent, especially during the election periods. </p>
<p>Political actors have attempted to sway public opinion via <a href="http://cs.brown.edu/people/jsavage/VotingProject/2017_09_07_NYT_TheFakeAmericansRussiaCreatedToInfluenceTheElection.pdf">Facebook</a>, <a href="https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/icdesa-19/125923267">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1940161220912682?casa_token=2Mm-amBz9HYAAAAA%3AnjDqLDDvZUkcmtiKlxXjRZoOG00ExD7gSXFk7vvWKQ8pAvvp5PJ_4z8R7uB8Ojj24Jj0s5d6-wvi">YouTube</a> to push for a political narrative to garner more supporters in the region.</p>
<p>Now, TikTok, as the <a href="https://techwireasia.com/2020/10/is-sea-now-the-key-to-tiktok-global-strategy/">most downloaded app in Southeast Asia</a> would serve as a new strategic tool for propagandists to push for political narrative during the electoral period.</p>
<h2>How TikTok operates to influence public</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/on-tiktok-misogyny-and-white-supremacy-slip-through-enforcement-gap">TikTok</a> provides unique features enabling propaganda to reach a greater public, as its content-sharing model is novel compared to its predecessors, where it does not rely on the number of followers but instead focuses on the content itself. </p>
<p>This means anybody who could create “interesting-enough” content can land on the <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/creators/creator-portal/en-us/tiktok-creation-essentials/whats-the-for-you-page-and-how-do-i-get-there/">“for you page,”</a> opening doors of opportunities for political opportunists to push for political narrative by creating engaging audio-visual content. </p>
<p>With its <a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/how-tiktok-recommends-videos-for-you">recommended system</a>, radical propaganda could result in extremism among fanatical followers as TikTok would push for similar content to users. This model could create an information bubble that would feed users with certain narratives and influence their worldview.</p>
<h2>Rampant political propaganda on Tiktok</h2>
<p>Unlike its predecessors, TikTok is relatively new in the global-fame-game after a sudden burst of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tiktok-can-be-the-new-platform-for-political-activism-lessons-from-southeast-asia-155556">new downloads worldwide</a> at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>While tech companies like Facebook, Twitter, and Google have <a href="https://demtech.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/127/2021/02/CyberTroop-Report20-Draft9.pdf">taken serious steps</a> to combat the misuse of their platforms by propagandists, TikTok does not have as rigorous policies. </p>
<p>TikTok has been <a href="https://restofworld.org/2021/tiktok-is-repeating-facebooks-mistakes-in-myanmar/">heavily criticized</a> by scholars and media for allowing extremism to be on its platform, which led the tech company to rebut with improved policies through their community guidelines.</p>
<p>Relying mostly on in-house and AI monitoring framework and community flagging system, as an audio-visual platform, TikTok seems to struggle to oversee content its users produce on its platform. </p>
<p>TikTok has established <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/community-guidelines?lang=en#37">its latest community guidelines</a> to avoid individuals’ misuse of the platform.</p>
<p>However, political propaganda is still rampant on the platform, for example on the ‘live’ section of the platform. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453370/original/file-20220321-12763-1x2158h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshots of TikTok live videos focusing on US politics (author’s screen grab) are part of my ongoing study on TikTok and political propaganda in several countries. The ‘live’ feature on TikTok posed a distinctive challenge and has been actively used by propagandists in several countries, including the US and Russia, to propagate political narratives, indicating there are still rooms to play for political strategists for the promising platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nuurrianti Jalli (2022)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ‘live’ feature on TikTok has been misused to spread political narrative in several countries, including the US and <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/epxken/russian-tiktok-influencers-paid-propaganda?utm_medium=social&utm_source=vice_facebook&fbclid=IwAR36-4PZ-OUR6VSLLGBZaIkbJKyBi3WB_6pZcL7-6jf0vxnrjydOd2Gj2Js">Russia</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike the uploaded audio-visual content, the live feature posed a distinctive challenge due to its synchronous real time-streaming nature, which makes <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/human-help-wanted-why-ai-is-terrible-at-content-moderation">AI monitoring less effective</a> compared to humans in content moderation. </p>
<p>But, relying on 24/7 human monitoring of live videos is unrealistic as it is impossible and economically impractical to hire enough workforce to monitor millions of content uploaded on TikTok daily. </p>
<p>Therefore the next best way is to harness community engagement by developing a community flagging system to help identify content in violation of its policy. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>As general elections in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are looming, we should not disregard TikTok as a space for political information warfare amid elections in the region. </p>
<p>Seeing how <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/epxken/russian-tiktok-influencers-paid-propaganda?utm_medium=social&utm_source=vice_facebook&fbclid=IwAR36-4PZ-OUR6VSLLGBZaIkbJKyBi3WB_6pZcL7-6jf0vxnrjydOd2Gj2Js">Russian influencers were paid to disseminate pro-Kremlin propaganda </a> on TikTok, my prediction, similar trends highly likely will happen in the Southeast Asian countries. </p>
<p>Digital propaganda strategies for disinformation campaigns that we have seen on other social media platforms include coordinated use of paid influencers, cybertroopers, bots, deepfakes. </p>
<p>These could be replicated on TikTok during the Southeast Asian elections considering the platform gained popularity in the region in the past three years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tiktok-can-be-the-new-platform-for-political-activism-lessons-from-southeast-asia-155556">How TikTok can be the new platform for political activism: lessons from Southeast Asia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453354/original/file-20220321-17-1b4eq0d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Observed ways to circumvent TikTok community guidelines requirements as found through my research on TikTok in Southeast Asia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nuurrianti Jalli (2022)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As information disorders ahead of the election are to be expected, one of the ways to mitigate information disorders is through media and information literacy efforts. </p>
<p>While fact-checkers can only do so much, citizens should also be well equipped with the right skills to check information for themselves. </p>
<p>In Southeast Asia, <a href="https://blog.google/around-the-globe/google-asia/media-literacy-southeast-asia/">media and information literacy education are still behind </a> compared to other parts of the world, despite the current climate of information pollution. While information disorders will never go away, equipping citizens with the right skills would <a href="https://360info.org/misinformation-wont-go-away-but-media-literacy-can-help-fight-it/">help in mitigating its spread. </a></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nuurrianti Jalli tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>TikTok is a new strategic tool for propagandists to push for political narrative during the electoral period.Nuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies College of Arts and Sciences Department of Languages, Literature, and Communication Studies, Northern State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1732472021-12-21T04:42:15Z2021-12-21T04:42:15Z‘Mission impossible?’: tracking political misinformation and disinformation on TikTok<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437158/original/file-20211213-19-vuuqng.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C2995%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Olivier Bergeron on Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>TikTok is one of the <a href="https://w3-lab.com/is-tiktok-the-fastest-growing-social-media-platform-in-2021/">top five social media platforms in the world</a> this year. </p>
<p>In Southeast Asia last year, <a href="https://www.businessofapps.com/data/tik-tok-statistics/">198 million people</a>, about <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-eastern-asia-population/">29%</a> of the region’s population, used TikTok. It is not an exaggeration to say the platform has become one of, if not <em>the</em> souk of ideas and opinions for the people in the region. </p>
<p>Like other interested scholars, my research team was also intrigued to look into TikTok. Specifically, we wanted to look at how information, including political misinformation and disinformation, flows on the platform. The distinction between the two forms of false information is that disinformation is intentionally, maliciously misleading.</p>
<p>During our eight months’ <a href="https://sites.google.com/view/techcamp-tiktok/home">research</a>, we found tracking political misinformation and disinformation on TikTok quite challenging. This was despite the fact the platform launched a <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/safety/resources/transparency-report-2020-1?lang=en">fact-checking program</a> in 2020 in partnership with <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/safety/en/safety-partners/">independent fact-checking organisations</a> that would “help review and assess the accuracy of content” on the platform.</p>
<p>Under this program, TikTok <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/oct/19/how-facebook-tiktok-are-addressing-misinformation-/">surfaces</a> potential misinformation to its partners. It may include videos flagged by TikTok users for misinformation, or those related to COVID-19 or other topics “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/tiktok-warn-users-about-sharing-misleading-content-n1256668">about which the spread of misleading information is common</a>”. </p>
<p>However, we still find difficulties tracking misinformation and disinformation on the platform, such as fact-checking audiovisual content and identifying foreign languages and terms.</p>
<h2>Fact-checking audiovisual content</h2>
<p>It is difficult to <a href="https://restofworld.org/2021/tiktok-is-repeating-facebooks-mistakes-in-myanmar/">fact-check audiovisual content</a> on TikTok.</p>
<p>To effectively track mis/disinformation, all content should be watched carefully and understood based on local context. To ensure the correct assessment, this required long hours of human observation and video analysis (observing language, nonverbal cues, terms, images, text and captions).</p>
<p>This is why fact-checkers globally rely on public participation to report misleading content, aside from having the human fact-checkers focusing on verifying mainly viral content.</p>
<p>AI technology can help verify some of these posts. However, fact-checking audiovisual content still relies heavily on human assessment for accuracy. </p>
<p>To date, audiovisual content is <a href="https://www.ijcai.org/proceedings/2021/0619.pdf">arguably one of the most challenging formats to fact-check</a> across the world. Other social media platforms face the same challenge. </p>
<p>In our research, we found much of the content monitored contained no verifiable claims. This meant it could not be objectively corroborated, or debunked and tagged as misinformation.</p>
<p>To determine which videos or comments contained inaccurate claims, we developed a misinformation framework based on the criteria for determining verifiable statements used by <a href="https://verafiles.org/articles/what-you-want-know-about-vera-files-fact-check">VERA Files</a> in the Philippines and <a href="https://tirto.id/insider/metodologiriset">Tirto.id</a> in Indonesia. Both organisations are signatories of <a href="https://www.poynter.org/ifcn/">Poynter’s International Fact-Checking Network</a>.</p>
<p>We also considered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/10-ways-to-spot-online-misinformation-132246">10-point list of red flags and tips in identifying misinformation provided by Colleen Sinclair</a>, an associate professor of clinical psychology at the Mississippi State University.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=752&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435916/original/file-20211206-25-sd5a2n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We based our misinformation framework on the criteria for determining verifiable statements used by VERA Files in the Philippines and Tirto.id in Indonesia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nuurrianti Jalli (2021)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using this misinformation framework, we found the majority of the videos and corresponding comments monitored carried mere subjective statements (opinion, calls to action, speculation) or were difficult to verify due to a lack of feasibility. </p>
<p>Examples included comments on Indonesia’s controversial new Labour Law known as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/world/asia/indonesia-stimulus-bill-signed.html">Omnibus Law</a>, debates on the inappropriateness of rape jokes in schools which initiated <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3144201/makeschoolasaferplace-anger-and-dismay-after-malaysia-investigates">#MakeSchoolASaferPlace</a> movement in Malaysia, arguments surrounding poor government policies in Malaysia amid COVID-19 which started another online
campaign <a href="https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/pm-tells-rakyat-patient-dont-051000657.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABm7qor0s-RYbxsUzBCw3I1doQxDvB9ZZM2VC1k3Ev9mJGZJOah38Mpm8GGLhCF0Hqj_QWfO5vR3ilpAegCpgPrcI8Z7w8g8K1lTjj-4lKywI09UIMKa15Soi_IHlxZ0WxG7y13SjoIUSjghii1R0ZyF0BjzdxhraHX0UvuuWX4P">#kerajaangagal</a>,
and the <a href="https://monitor.civicus.org/updates/2021/02/22/activists-and-journalists-targeted-draconian-anti-terror-law-challenged-philippines/">Philippines Anti-Terrorism Law</a>. These comments were deemed not verifiable, since they were emotionally driven and based on users’ opinions of the issues. Therefore, they could not be tagged as containing or possibly containing mis/disinformation. </p>
<p>These findings could be different if content creators and video commentators integrated statements of fact or “feasible claims” that we could cross-check with credible and authoritative sources.</p>
<h2>Identifying diverse languages, slang and jargon on TikTok**</h2>
<p>Some fact-checkers and researchers have previously noted that <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-fact-checking-challenges-in-southeast-asia-148738">diverse languages and dialects in the region have made fact-checking difficult for local agencies</a>.</p>
<p>In this study, we likewise found that slang makes it harder to track political mis/disinformation on TikTok even when we analyse content uploaded in our mother tongue. </p>
<p>Factors like generational gaps and lack of awareness of trendy slang and jargon used by content creators and users should not be underestimated in fact-checking content on the platform. Undoubtedly, this will also be an issue for AI-driven fact-checking mechanisms.</p>
<h2>Difficult for everyone</h2>
<p>During our research, we realised that tracking misinformation on the platform can be a bit more challenging for the research team and common people.</p>
<p>Unless you are a data scientist with the ability to <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-collect-data-from-tiktok-tutorial-ab848b40d191">code Python API</a> to collect data, scraping data on TikTok would require manual labour. </p>
<p>For this project, our team opted for the latter, considering most of our members were not equipped with data science skills. We tracked misinformation on the platform by manually mapping out relevant hashtags through TikTok’s <a href="https://support.tiktok.com/en/using-tiktok/exploring-videos/discover-and-search">search function</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=908&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1141&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1141&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/435917/original/file-20211206-136955-x71t5x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1141&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All TikTok videos were extracted manually and organised for fact-checking. The fact-checking framework for this project was developed based on the framework used by VERAfiles and Tirto.id.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nuurrianti Jalli (2021)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A downside we observed in using this strategy is that it can be time-consuming due to the search function’s limitations. </p>
<p>For one, TikTok’s Discover tab allows users to sort the results according only to relevance and/or total number of likes. They can’t sort results by the total number of views, shares and/or comments. </p>
<p>It also allows one to filter results by date of upload, but only for the last six months. This makes searching for older data, as in our case, difficult. </p>
<p>As such, we had to manually sift through the entries to find relevant videos with the most views or highest number of engagements uploaded within our chosen monitoring period. </p>
<p>This made the process quite overwhelming, especially for the hashtags that yielded thousands (or more) of TikTok videos. </p>
<p>TikTok should be thinking of improving its platform to allow users to filter and sort through videos in search results. Specifically, they should be able to sort by number of views and/or engagements and customised date of upload. Interested individuals and fact-checkers would then be able to track political mis/disinformation more efficiently. </p>
<p>This would help TikTok become less polluted with false information as more people would have the means to monitor mis/disinformation efficiently. That could complement existing efforts by TikTok’s own fact-checking team.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173247/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This project is funded by TechCamp, a public policy program initiated by the U.S. Department of State. Meeko Angela Camba of VERA Files, a team member for this project, also contributed her ideas to the development of this article. </span></em></p>Tracking misinformation and disinformation on TikTok is a difficult feat, a study findsNuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies College of Arts and Sciences Department of Languages, Literature, and Communication Studies, Northern State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1709062021-11-15T13:13:48Z2021-11-15T13:13:48ZOrganized crime is a top driver of global deforestation – along with beef, soy, palm oil and wood products<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430828/original/file-20211108-25-242wwf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C2304%2C1710&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires burn off forest cover and natural grasses to create cattle pasture in the Maya forest in Guatemala.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Devine</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year the world loses an estimated <a href="https://fra-data.fao.org/">25 million acres</a> (10 million hectares) of forest, an area <a href="https://www.in.gov/idoa/state-property-and-facilities/state-property-deeds-maps-and-photos/state-property-facts-at-a-glance/">larger than the state of Indiana</a>. Nearly all of it is in the tropics. </p>
<p>Tropical forests store enormous quantities of carbon and are home to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706264114">at least two-thirds of the world’s living species</a>, so deforestation has disastrous consequences for climate change and conservation. Trees absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, slowing its buildup in the atmosphere – but when they are burned or logged, they release their stored carbon, fueling further warming. Tropical forest loss generates nearly <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf">50% more greenhouse gases</a> than does the global transportation sector.</p>
<p>At the 2021 U.N. conference on climate change in Glasgow, more than 100 world leaders pledged on Nov. 1 to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/climate/cop26-deforestation.html">halt deforestation by 2030</a>. In the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/">Declaration on Forests and Land Use</a>, countries outlined their strategy, which focuses on supporting trade and development policies that promote sustainable production and consumption. Governments and private companies have pledged over US$19.2 billion to support these efforts. </p>
<p>From my research on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BA2cjRgAAAAJ&hl=en">social and environmental issues in Latin America</a>, I know that four consumer goods are responsible for the majority of global deforestation: beef, soy, palm oil, and wood pulp and paper products. Together these commodities are responsible for the <a href="https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/estimating-role-seven-commodities-agriculture-linked-deforestation.pdf">loss of nearly 12 million acres</a> (5 million hectares) annually. There’s also a fifth, less publicized key driver: organized crime, including illegal drug trafficking. </p>
<p><iframe id="WJkvF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WJkvF/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The dominant role of beef</h2>
<p>Among major products that promote deforestation, beef is in a class by itself. Beef production is now estimated to be the biggest driver of deforestation worldwide, accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">41% of global forest losses</a>. In the Amazon alone, cattle ranching accounts for <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/xii/0568-b1.htm">80% of deforestation</a>. From 2000 to 2011, beef production emitted <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125012">nearly 200 times more greenhouse gases</a> than soy, and 60 times more than oil palm in tropical countries with high deforestation rates.</p>
<p>Beef is produced in many countries, but it mainly drives forest losses in Latin America. On the savannas of sub-Saharan Africa and the plains of the U.S. Midwest, cattle graze without directly contributing to deforestation. </p>
<p>However, beef production in these regions indirectly contributes to deforestation by increasing demand for soy-based feed. Cattle production worldwide also drives climate change because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9">cattle emit methane</a>, a potent greenhouse gas.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TcJUSMiKQyY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Under President Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon – mainly for beef and soy production – has accelerated.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Soy and palm oil: Ubiquitous ingredients</h2>
<p>Together, soy and palm oil drive nearly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">10% of deforestation</a> annually – almost 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares).</p>
<p>Clearing land for palm oil plantations fuels large-scale rainforest destruction in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-palm-oil-became-the-worlds-most-hated-most-used-fat-source-161165">Indonesia and Malaysia</a>, where most of the world’s palm oil is produced, destroying habitat for endangered and threatened species such as orangutans, elephants and tigers. More recently, palm oil production has expanded to other parts of Asia, Central and South America and Central and West Africa. </p>
<p>Palm oil is the most commonly produced, consumed and traded vegetable oil. Some <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">60%</a> of the 66 million tons produced globally every year is used to produce energy in the form of biofuel, power and heat. About <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">40%</a> is used for food, animal feed and chemical products. Palm oil is an ingredient in half of all products found at the supermarket, including margarine, shampoos, frozen pizza and detergents.</p>
<p>Soy production has doubled globally in the past 20 years. Nearly <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">80%</a> of global soy is fed to cows, chickens, pigs and farmed fish. This demand reflects the <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">tripling of global meat production</a> over the past 50 years. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1457027529513050116"}"></div></p>
<p>The remaining soy is largely used to produce vegetable oil and biodiesel. Humans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12611">directly consume just 6%</a> in the form of tofu, soy milk, edamame and tempeh.</p>
<p>The United States and Brazil produce nearly 70% of the world’s annual <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/">350 million-ton soy crop</a>. Brazil has rapidly caught up to U.S. production in the past 30 years, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-thriving-soy-industry-threatens-its-forests-and-global-climate-targets-56973">disastrous consequences for tropical forests in the Amazon</a>. </p>
<h2>Wood products</h2>
<p>Wood products are responsible for about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002">5% of annual global deforestation</a>, or about 1.2 million acres (500,000 hectares) yearly. Wood is widely used for home construction and furniture, and also as a pulp source for paper and fabric. And in low-income nations and rural areas, it’s an important fuel source for heating and cooking.</p>
<p>The three <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/1701/paper-industry/">largest paper-producing countries</a> are the U.S., Canada and China, but tropical countries have also become important pulp and paper sources. Timber plantations account for a growing share of tropical wood products, but there’s disagreement about whether this approach is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.010">more sustainable than logging natural forests</a>. In Indonesia between 2001 and 2016, more forests were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db">cleared to create wood product plantations</a> than for palm oil production.</p>
<p><iframe id="ixBEP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ixBEP/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Illegal deforestation and organized crime</h2>
<p>Making the supply chains for these four commodities more sustainable is an important strategy for reducing deforestation. But another industry plays an important role, especially in tropical forests: organized crime. Large, lucrative industries offer opportunities to move and launder money; as a result, in many parts of the world, deforestation is driven by the drug trade.</p>
<p>In South America and Central America, drug trafficking organizations are the vanguard of deforestation. Drug traffickers are illegally logging forests in the Amazon and <a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/intimate-relationship-between-cocaine-illegal-timber-brazil-amazon/">hiding cocaine in timber shipments to Europe</a>. In my research, I have analyzed how traffickers illegally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102092">log</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.12469">raise cattle</a> in protected areas in Central America to launder money and claim drug smuggling territory. Other scholars estimate that 30% to 60% of deforestation in the region is “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6fff">narco-deforestation</a>.”</p>
<p>Legal and illegal activities also interweave along the commodity chains for palm oil and soy. <a href="https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/consumer-goods-and-deforestation/">Forest Trends</a>, a U.S. nonprofit that promotes market-based approaches to forest conservation, estimates that nearly half of deforestation for commercial products like cattle, soy, palm oil and wood products is illegal. According to the group’s analysis, exports tied to illegal deforestation are worth US$61 billion annually and are responsible for <a href="https://www.forest-trends.org/wp-content/uploads/imported/for168-consumer-goods-and-deforestation-letter-14-0916-hr-no-crops_web-pdf.pdf">25% of total global tropical deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>Not all large-scale illegal deforestation is linked to drug trafficking organizations. But it is <a href="https://www.interpol.int/News-and-Events/News/2020/Forestry-crime-targeting-the-most-lucrative-of-environmental-crimes">almost always tied to organized crime</a> that depends upon corruption to operate. </p>
<p>Promoting sustainable production and consumption are critical to halting deforestation worldwide. But in my view, national and industry leaders also have to root organized crime and illicit markets out of these commodity chains. Until they do, global pledges to halt deforestation will have limited effect.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 115,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Devine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More than 100 world leaders have pledged to end the destruction of forests by 2030 as a way to slow climate change. That will require changing how the world produces four widely used commodities.Jennifer Devine, Associate Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, Texas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1642442021-07-15T09:14:46Z2021-07-15T09:14:46ZCOVID-19 in Southeast Asia: all eyes on Indonesia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411193/original/file-20210714-17-5pd18q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Traffic in Jakarta has decreased significantly after the Indonesia government has restricted population mobility to reduce the spread of COVID-19, 4 July 2021.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://download.antarafoto.com/searchresult/dom-1625402704">ANTARA FOTO/Hafidz Mubarak A/aww.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the exception of Singapore, Southeast Asian countries have recorded unprecedented spikes in daily case numbers and deaths during the last several weeks. </p>
<p>In April 2021, Thailand recorded an <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">eight-fold increase in 7-day average daily new cases</a>. <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">The trend in the last few weeks</a> have been worse. <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">Malaysia’s</a> seven-day average daily new cases per million population more than doubled between May 1 (94.2 per million population) and July 11 (254.43 per million). </p>
<p>With a population nearly ten times that of Malaysia, Indonesia has recorded an almost seven-fold increase for the same parameter from May 1 (18.85 new cases per million) to July 11 (126.98 new cases per million).</p>
<p>Indonesia’ daily case numbers for the last few days is <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/indonesia/">breaking records</a>, <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">without a significant increase in test numbers</a>. On July 14 2021, Indonesia broke another record of <a href="https://twitter.com/nuicemedia/status/1415241208436125711">54,517 new COVID-19 cases</a>.</p>
<p>Indonesia is now considered <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Indonesia-overtakes-India-to-become-Asia-s-COVID-epicenter">Asia’s new COVID-19 epicentre</a>, overtaking India. What has prevented Indonesia from showing a similar spike with India during its worst days in terms of incidence rate per million population was simply the country’s low test coverage. </p>
<p>The increase in case numbers has been followed by spikes in deaths as well.</p>
<h2>Why cases are increasing</h2>
<p>Two things contribute to increased COVID-19 cases in several countries in Southeast Asia: human mobility and activities and the spreading of new coronavirus variants. </p>
<p>The drastic rise of COVID-19 cases in Thailand during April 2021 was preceded by increased activities in workplaces that peaked <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">in March</a>. </p>
<p>In Malaysia and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-indonesia-travel-idUSKBN2BV1KW">Indonesia</a>, being Muslim countries, most people celebrated Eid in May. Despite government restrictions, people travelled to meet their families (“mudik” in Indonesia or “balik kampong” in Malaysia). We can easily relate the current spikes with the increase in mobility.</p>
<p>Additionally, the government’s effort for economic recovery following the 2020 economic downturn has also been attributed to an increase in cases. </p>
<p>In Malaysia, for instance, more than <a href="https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2021/05/07/factories-open-during-mco-despite-contributing-more-covid-19-clusters/#:%7E:text=Percentage%20of%20Covid%2D19%20Clusters%20in%20Malaysia%20by%20Place&text=Community%20spread%20formed%2015.29%20per,day%20the%20clusters%20were%20announced.">50%</a> of about 9.300 new cases between February and April 2021 were found in workplaces, among construction and factory workers. </p>
<p>It’s also clear that the new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are significant factors in the unprecedented spike. The Delta variant, for example, has shown transmission capacity and immune evasiveness that was never seen before for a coronavirus. This means there is increasing risk for the delta variant to wreak havoc an otherwise healthy immune system. What happened in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y">India</a> was a clear sign of this. </p>
<p>All four <a href="https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/">variants of concern</a> (Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) have been found in Southeast Asia, mainly in <a href="https://cov-spectrum.ethz.ch/explore/Malaysia/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants/json=%7B%22variant%22%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22B.1.617.2%22%2C%22mutations%22%3A%5B%5D%7D%2C%22matchPercentage%22%3A1%7D">Malaysia</a>, <a href="https://cov-spectrum.ethz.ch/explore/Thailand/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants/json=%7B%22variant%22%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22B.1.617.2%22%2C%22mutations%22%3A%5B%5D%7D%2C%22matchPercentage%22%3A1%7D">Thailand</a>, <a href="https://cov-spectrum.ethz.ch/explore/Philippines/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants/json=%7B%22variant%22%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22B.1.617.2%22%2C%22mutations%22%3A%5B%5D%7D%2C%22matchPercentage%22%3A1%7D">Philippines</a>, <a href="https://cov-spectrum.ethz.ch/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants/json=%7B%22variant%22%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22B.1.617.2%22%2C%22mutations%22%3A%5B%5D%7D%2C%22matchPercentage%22%3A1%7D">Singapore</a> and <a href="https://cov-spectrum.ethz.ch/explore/Indonesia/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants/json=%7B%22variant%22%3A%7B%22name%22%3A%22B.1.617.2%22%2C%22mutations%22%3A%5B%5D%7D%2C%22matchPercentage%22%3A1%7D">Indonesia</a>. The COVID cases are increasing in those countries, although Singapore tough measures have managed to control it. </p>
<h2>The death also increase</h2>
<p><a href="http://ourworldindata.org">A sharp increase in the death toll</a> has accompanied the rising COVID-19 cases.</p>
<p>The weekly average of daily new deaths in Thailand recorded over a 100-fold increase over the period from April 1, 2021 (< 0.01 deaths per million population) to July 13, 2021 (1.05 deaths per million population).</p>
<p>Malaysia recorded a 24-fold increase (0.13 deaths per million population on April 1 compared to 3.13 deaths per million population on July 13) for the same parameters and period. Although Indonesia has recorded “only” 6.5-fold increase for the same period (0.51 vs 3.32), the country’s death toll is now the worst in the region. </p>
<p>As of July 13, Indonesia’s case fatality rate with 2.61 deaths for every 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 remains the highest in Southeast Asia (Malaysia 0.75%; Thailand 0.81%).</p>
<p>When we published the Indonesian version of this article last month, Malaysians showed an 11-fold higher risk of being infected with COVID-19 than Indonesians (21.32 -Indonesia- vs 236.46 -Malaysia- new cases per million population). </p>
<p>In a mere one month, this gap is closing only 2-fold as of July 11 (126.98 -Indonesia- vs 254.43 -Malaysia-). This has happened amidst sterling efforts to increase testing capacity in Indonesia.</p>
<h2>Vaccination as a solution</h2>
<p>The United Kingdom and United States experience shows that vaccination is the most effective strategy in stopping the pandemic.</p>
<p>Even though both countries saw a recent spike in cases, with Delta being the dominant variant there, we do not see a corresponding spike in hospitalisations and deaths, as seen in Southeast Asia with lower vaccination coverage. </p>
<p>The United Kingdom and the United States experienced a surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in early 2021. Now in almost all of the parameters <a href="http://ourworldindata.org">their numbers have significantly lowered</a>. As of July 12, 51.55% of the UK’s population and 47.69% of the US’s population have been fully vaccinated. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411403/original/file-20210715-17-lgl6e7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States and the United Kingdom have dropped after more than half of the population were vaccinated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ourworldindata | Teguh H. Sasongko | The Conversation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On May 28, 2021, the US <em>Center for Disease Control (CDC)</em> issued bold recommendations for those who <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines%20/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html">have been fully vaccinated</a>. The agency has decided to remove the obligation to wear masks, social distancing and post-international-travel quarantine to those with complete vaccinations. </p>
<h2>Test-Trace-Isolate</h2>
<p>Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) remains the key strategy to controlling the pandemic.</p>
<p>The principle of this effort is to detect as many cases as possible as quickly as possible, preventing them from becoming sources of virus spread. Upon detection, patients must be separated from the general public and be given medical care if necessary.</p>
<p>The government also has to meet WHO’s 5% maximum positivity rate standard, used as a marker of adequacy in test coverage. If the positivity rate is still above 5%, the number of tests must be increased. </p>
<p>And until the majority of the population gets vaccinated, we should continue to wash hands, wear masks, maintain distance, avoid crowds and limit travel to control the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teguh Haryo Sasongko tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Two things contribute to increased COVID-19 cases in several countries in Southeast Asia: human mobility and activities and the spreading of new coronavirus variants.Teguh Haryo Sasongko, Peneliti The Cochrane Collaboration; Associate Professor, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI) School of Medicine, Perdana University; Deputy Director, Center for Research Excellence, Perdana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611652021-06-24T12:10:04Z2021-06-24T12:10:04ZHow palm oil became the world’s most hated, most used fat source<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407563/original/file-20210622-15-jq0ku3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2991%2C1985&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oil palm fruit in North Aceh, Indonesia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/workers-drops-the-palm-fruit-from-their-pandanus-before-news-photo/867112046">Fachrul Reza / Barcroft Media via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Palm oil is everywhere today: in food, soap, lipstick, even newspaper ink. It’s been called the world’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/543306a">most hated crop</a> because of its association with <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-09-palm-oil-indonesia-raging-forest.html">deforestation in Southeast Asia</a>. But despite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/mar/10/people-businesses-boycotting-palm-oil-sustainability">boycott campaigns</a>, the world uses more palm oil than any other vegetable oil – <a href="https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/cropview/commodityView.aspx?cropid=4243000&sel_year=2020&rankby=Production">over 73 million tons in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>That’s because palm oil is cheap. The plant that makes it, the <a href="https://www.cabi.org/isc/datasheet/20295">African oil palm</a>, can produce up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.009">10 times more oil per hectare than soybeans</a>.</p>
<p>But as my <a href="https://www.uncpress.org/book/9781469662893/oil-palm/">book on palm oil’s history</a> shows, this controversial commodity hasn’t always been cheap. It became that way thanks to legacies of colonialism and exploitation that still shape today’s industry and that make it challenging to shift palm oil onto a more sustainable path.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vvKgnRPThKI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Palm oil and its derivatives are ubiquitous in consumer products but can appear under hundreds of names, such as glyceryl and sodium lauryl sulfate.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From slavery to skin care</h2>
<p>Palm oil has long been a staple food in a region stretching from Senegal to Angola along Africa’s western coast. It entered the global economy in the 1500s aboard ships engaged in the <a href="https://slavevoyages.org/voyage/about#methodology/introduction/0/en/">transatlantic slave trade</a>. </p>
<p>During the deadly “middle passage” across the Atlantic, palm oil was a valued food that kept captives alive. As the author of a 1711 book noted, traders also smeared captives’ skin with palm oil to make them “<a href="https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/109229#page/142/mode/1up">look smooth, sleek, and young</a>” before sending them to the auction block.</p>
<p>By the mid-1600s, Europeans were rubbing palm oil on their own skin, too. European writers, learning from African medicinal practices, claimed that palm oil “<a href="https://archive.org/details/trueexacthistory00ligo_0/page/50/mode/2up?q=does+the+greateft+cures+upon+fuch">does the greatest cures upon such, as have bruises or strains on their bodies</a>.” By the 1790s, British entrepreneurs were <a href="https://hcommons.org/deposits/objects/hc:24958/datastreams/CONTENT/content">adding palm oil to soap</a> for its reddish-orange color and violetlike scent. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cakes of Sunlight Soap with vintage wrapper." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407566/original/file-20210622-23-1ghnxrc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lever’s Sunlight Soap, introduced in the 1880s, got its tint from palm oil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cake-of-sunlight-soap-with-packet-sunlight-soap-was-news-photo/90743248">SSPL vis Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After Britain abolished the slave trade in 1807, traders sought out legal products. In the following decades Britain slashed tariffs on palm oil and encouraged African states to focus on producing it. By 1840, palm oil was cheap enough to completely replace tallow or whale oil in such products as soap and candles.</p>
<p>As palm oil became increasingly common, it lost its reputation as a luxurious good. Exporters made it even cheaper with labor-saving methods that allowed palm fruit to ferment and soften, though the results were rancid. European buyers, in turn, applied new chemical processes to strip away foul odors and colors. The result was a bland substance that could be freely substituted for more expensive fats and oils.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sketch of men pounding oil palm fruit with sticks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407768/original/file-20210622-14-s8cbv3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘The Production of Palm Oil,’ by Édouard Auguste Nousveaux, 1844.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.metmuseum.org/CRDImages/dp/original/DP809147.jpg">Metropolitan Museum of Art</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Palm oil colonialism</h2>
<p>By 1900, a new industry was gobbling up all kinds of oils: <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/margarine#ref206629">Margarine</a> was invented in 1869 by the French chemist Hippolyte Mège-Mouriès as a cheap alternative to butter. It soon became a mainstay of working-class diets in Europe and North America. </p>
<p>Palm oil was first used to <a href="https://niche-canada.org/2021/03/24/hard-butter-times-in-canada-what-buttergate-reveals-about-environmental-and-food-history/#_ftnref4">dye margarine yellow</a>, but it turned out to be a perfect main ingredient because it stayed firm at room temperature and melted in the mouth, just like butter.</p>
<p>Margarine and soap magnates like Britain’s <a href="https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/lady-lever-art-gallery/story-of-lever">William Lever</a> looked to Europe’s colonies in Africa for larger quantities of fresher, edible palm oil. However, African communities often refused to provide land for foreign companies because making oil by hand was still profitable for them. Colonial oil producers resorted to <a href="https://dial.uclouvain.be/pr/boreal/object/boreal:179705">government coercion and outright violence</a> to find labor.</p>
<p>They had more success in Southeast Asia, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022463420000697">where they created a new oil palm plantation industry</a>. Colonial rulers there gave plantation companies nearly unlimited access to land. The companies hired “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=UTQTEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR9&dq=women+coolie+history&ots=o-dqj6wmSN&sig=qcIq6QlBVx-M82xGv1kdq4eISIc#v=onepage&q=women%20coolie%20history&f=false">coolies</a>” – a derogatory European term for migrant workers from southern India, Indonesia and China, based on the Hindi word Kuli, an aboriginal tribal name, or the Tamil word kuli, for “wages.” These laborers toiled under coercive, low-paying contracts and discriminatory laws. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men with a large bunch of palm fruit suspended from a pole." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=836&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404095/original/file-20210602-25-18s00qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1051&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two workers carry a large bunch of oil palm fruit on a Sumatran plantation around 1922.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://digitalcollections.universiteitleiden.nl/view/item/923366">J.W. Meijster, Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The oil palm itself also adapted to its new locale. While scattered palms grew to towering heights on African farms, in Asia they remained short in tight, orderly plantations that were easier to harvest efficiently. By 1940, plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia were exporting more palm oil than all of Africa.</p>
<h2>A golden gift?</h2>
<p>When Indonesia and Malaysia gained independence after World War II, plantation companies retained their access to cheap land. Indonesian authorities dubbed palm oil from their fast-growing plantation industry a “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Palm_Oil_a_Golden_Gift_from_Indonesia_to.html?id=uRe5MwEACAAJ">golden gift to the world</a>.” </p>
<p>Palm oil consumption grew as competitors dropped away: first whale oil in the 1960s, then <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-crisco-toppled-lard-and-made-americans-believers-in-industrial-food-127158">fats like tallow and lard</a>. In the 1970s and 1980s, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10408399209527562">health concerns about tropical oils</a> such as coconut and palm undercut demand in Europe and North America. But developing countries snapped up palm oil for <a href="https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:zc839jm3057/Gaskell_Dissertation-augmented.pdf">frying and baking</a>.</p>
<p>Plantations expanded to meet the demand. They kept costs down by recruiting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8373.2012.01496.x">poorly paid and often undocumented migrant workers</a> from Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68944-5_9">reproducing some of the abusive practices of the colonial era</a>.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, U.S. and EU regulators moved to <a href="https://nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/fear-frying/">ban unhealthy trans fat</a>, a type of fat found in partially hydrogenated oils, from foods. Manufacturers turned to palm oil as a cheap and effective substitute. From 2000 through 2020, EU palm oil imports more than doubled, while U.S. imports shot up almost tenfold. Many consumers <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/food-drink/bs-fo-berger-cookies-trans-fat-20171120-story.html">didn’t even notice the switch</a>. </p>
<p>Because palm oil was so inexpensive, manufacturers found new uses for it, such as replacing petroleum-based chemicals in soaps and cosmetics. It also became a <a href="https://chinadialogue.net/en/energy/11957-as-palm-oil-for-biofuel-rises-in-southeast-asia-tropical-ecosystems-shrink/">biodiesel feedstock in Asia</a>, although research suggests that making biodiesel from palms grown on newly cleared land <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14852-6">increases greenhouse gas emissions</a> instead of reducing them. </p>
<p>The EU is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-palmoil-wto-idUSL2N2NI071">phasing out palm oil biofuels</a> because of concerns over deforestation. Undeterred, Indonesia is working to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-climate-biodiesel/analysis-indonesias-palm-oil-powered-green-diesel-fuels-threat-to-forests-idUSKBN2A4030">increase the palm component</a> in its biodiesel, which it markets as “<a href="https://pertamina.com/en/news-room/news-release/success-with-d-100-pertamina-is-ready-to-produce-green-energy">Green Diesel</a>,” and to develop other palm-based biofuels.</p>
<p><iframe id="aCG5A" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aCG5A/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Boycott or reform?</h2>
<p>Today there are enough oil palm plantations worldwide to cover an area <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1211/2021/">larger than the state of Kansas</a>, and the industry is still growing. It is concentrated in Asia, but plantations are spreading in Africa and Latin America. A 2019 investigation of one company in the Democratic Republic of Congo found <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/11/25/dr-congo-development-banks-linked-palm-oil-abuses">dangerous conditions and abusive labor practices</a> that echoed colonial-era palm oil projects. </p>
<p>Endangered animals have received more press. According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, tropical forest clearing for oil palm plantations <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/palm-oil-and-biodiversity">threatens nearly 200 at-risk species</a>, including orangutans, tigers and African forest elephants.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1398226039952875522"}"></div></p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/palm-oil-and-biodiversity">IUCN</a> and many <a href="https://international.nwf.org/deforestation/palm-oil/">other advocates</a> argue that shifting away from palm oil <a href="https://theconversation.com/palm-oil-boycott-could-actually-increase-deforestation-sustainable-products-are-the-solution-106733">is not the answer</a>. Since oil palm is so productive, they contend, switching to other oil crops could cause even more harm because it would require more land to cultivate substitutes.</p>
<p>There are more just and sustainable ways to make palm oil. Studies show that small-scale agroforestry techniques, like those historically practiced in <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23209182">Africa and among Afro-descendant communities in South America</a>, offer cost-effective ways to produce palm oil while <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00122">protecting the environment</a>. </p>
<p>The question is whether enough consumers care. Over 20% of palm oil produced in 2020 received certification from the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil, a nonprofit that includes oil palm producers and processors, consumer goods manufacturers, retailers, banks and advocacy groups. But barely half of it found buyers <a href="https://rspo.org/impact">willing to pay a premium for sustainability</a>. Until this changes, vulnerable communities and ecosystems will continue to bear the costs of cheap palm oil.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan E. Robins received funding for this research from a joint American Philosophical Society-British Academy grant, the Hagley Museum and Library, the University of Connecticut Humanities Institute, and the Michigan Technological University Research Excellence Fund.</span></em></p>Palm oil is responsible for widespread deforestation and labor abuses, but it’s also cheap and incredibly useful. That’s why many advocates call for reforming the industry, not replacing it.Jonathan E. Robins, Associate Professor of Global History, Michigan Technological UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589552021-06-02T20:09:23Z2021-06-02T20:09:23ZIndonesia may be on the cusp of a major COVID spike. Unlike its neighbours, though, there is no lockdown yet<p>No one really knows the true state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, and that means it is unpredictable. But there are good reasons to worry about what will happen next.</p>
<p>Fifteen months after Indonesia reported its first case of COVID-19, testing for the coronavirus remains among the lowest in Asia. Perhaps because it is not free, testing has reached only around <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-map">40 per 1,000 people</a>, compared with 115 in the Philippines, 373 in Malaysia, and more than 2,000 in Singapore. </p>
<p>Testing is better even in Myanmar, where a military coup has triggered daily protests and an increasingly fraught security situation.</p>
<p>And Indonesia’s test results are not reliable. The country is still excessively reliant on <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/09/04/false-security-who-advises-against-using-covid-19-rapid-test-as-travel-requirement.html">rapid antigen tests</a>, which are less accurate than PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesian-made-covid-19-breathalyser-sensitivity-comparable-to-rt-pcr-155497">Indonesian-made COVID-19 breathalyser sensitivity comparable to RT-PCR</a>
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<p>Indonesia’s official death reports are questionable too. <a href="https://laporcovid19.org">LaporCovid-19</a>, an independent website established to provide accurate information about the pandemic, noted a discrepancy between the 48,477 COVID-related deaths reported by the government in May and its own total of 50,729. It reached its tally by simply adding the death tolls of <a href="https://laporcovid19.org/post/data-warga-diduga-bocor-data-covid-19-disembunyikan">each province</a> – and that was with out-of-date data from six provinces and none from Papua.</p>
<p>In fact, researchers and journalists have long pointed to significant “<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm">excess deaths</a>” as evidence of significant under-reporting of COVID fatalities in Indonesia. </p>
<p>Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths occurring beyond what would be expected in a normal year. One <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.20248159v1">study</a> found a 61% increase in excess deaths in Indonesia in 2020 compared with the previous five years, which was not reflected in the official data.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Indonesia's COVID deaths surged in January" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403968/original/file-20210602-27-l6czjd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indonesia’s COVID deaths surged in late January, but may be on the rise again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Achmad Ibrahim/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Concerns of a super-spreader event</h2>
<p>But even on the clearly inadequate official data available, COVID case numbers are now on the rise. Indonesia <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/id">reported</a> 2,385 new cases on May 15. Two weeks later, daily cases had more than doubled to 6,565.</p>
<p>If numbers keep growing at this rate, Indonesia’s health system will not be able to cope. When daily cases peaked earlier this year at 10,000-14,000 new cases per day (officially), Jakarta’s hospitals were overwhelmed and COVID patients were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/covid-patients-turned-away-as-hospitals-in-indonesia-face-collapse">turned away</a>.</p>
<p>And there is a real possibility the numbers will get this high again — maybe even worse. </p>
<p>Countries in the region that had managed the pandemic well through 2020, such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia are now experiencing deadly third and fourth waves. In early May, Indonesian authorities also reported cases of the UK variant (B.1.1.7), South African variant (B.1.351) and Indian variant (B.1.617.2), which are more contagious than the original strain. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-is-forcing-millions-of-girls-out-of-school-in-south-east-asia-and-the-pacific-157230">COVID is forcing millions of girls out of school in South-east Asia and the Pacific</a>
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<p>To make matters worse, Indonesia just experienced a national super-spreader event: Eid al-Fitr, the most important Islamic holiday. </p>
<p>Traditionally, millions of Muslims <a href="https://unstats.un.org/unsd/geoinfo/UNGEGN/docs/11th-uncsgn-docs/The%20Role%20of%20Toponymy_Indonesia.pdf">return to their home villages</a> to see family and friends during this time — a mass event known as <em>mudik</em>. Fearing a repeat of last year, when daily cases <a href="https://setkab.go.id/en/press-statement-of-president-of-the-republic-of-indonesia-on-the-ban-of-this-years-mudik-friday-16-april-2021/">shot up by 93%</a> after <em>mudik</em>, the government banned travel this year — the second time it has tried to halt <em>mudik</em>. </p>
<p>But, as is so often the case in Indonesia, enforcement was badly lacking, and <em>mudik</em> rolled on, even if numbers were down. WhatsApp groups were ablaze with <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2021/05/06/bribes-lies-and-black-sticky-rice-indonesians-outsmart-mudik-ban.html">ways to avoid</a> police checkpoints.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1390651083580755971"}"></div></p>
<p>Over the past fortnight, Indonesians have been gradually returning to the cities, fuelling concerns of a major outbreak. </p>
<p>This is happening in next-door Malaysia, where the government has announced a post-Eid <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-malaysia-third-lockdown-more-cases-empty-streets-malls-14927082">total lockdown</a> of the entire country as consecutive days of record infections catapulted its total caseload above 550,000.</p>
<p>In Vietnam, as well, the government has just <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/31/vietnam-hybrid-coronavirus-variant-ho-chi-minh-city-restrictions/">imposed</a> a two-week lockdown on the largest city, Ho Chi Minh City, with plans to test all 9 million residents.</p>
<p>But in Indonesia, with more than eight times the population of Malaysia and a far weaker health care system, it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-new-normal-might-fail-in-indonesia-and-how-to-fix-it-140798">business as usual, or what the government calls the “new normal”</a>. </p>
<p>The government recently expanded its <a href="https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/482656/indonesia-officials-expand-and-extend-covid-19-restrictions-nationwide-through-june-14-update-73">social restrictions</a> nationwide through June 14, requiring schools to shut, shops and restaurants to close by a certain time each night, and limits on employees allowed in offices. However, a more robust lockdown still appears only a remote possibility.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-new-normal-might-fail-in-indonesia-and-how-to-fix-it-140798">Why a 'new normal' might fail in Indonesia and how to fix it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Vaccine rollout offers some hope</h2>
<p>Indonesia’s vaccine rollout may offer a slim ray of hope. More than 27 million vaccine doses have <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/indonesia">now been delivered</a> and nearly 4% of Indonesia’s population (10 million of 270 million) has been fully vaccinated, compared with 3.6% in Malaysia, 2.7% in Japan and a woeful 2% in Australia.</p>
<p>Indonesia’s vaccine program began in January with a combination of AstraZeneca, procured through the World Health Organization’s COVAX scheme, and the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccines. But AstraZeneca shortages exacerbated by the recent COVID surge in India have led to <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/indonesia-satisfied-with-effectiveness-of-chinese-covid-19-14608920">greater reliance on China</a>. </p>
<p>In April, the Indonesian government approved Sinopharm for <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1851441/world">emergency use</a>, and supplies of the China’s CanSino and the Russian Sputnik V vaccines are on the way. </p>
<p>There are concerns about the efficacy of these vaccines, but most Indonesians would agree they are better than nothing.</p>
<p>A two-track vaccination system has <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/indonesia-vaccination-programme-rate-covid-19-challenges-gotong-14881924">now been developed</a>. The government is offering Sinovac or AstraZeneca vaccines free to health workers, senior citizens and public servants, and for a fee to anyone else. </p>
<p>At the same time, a program self-funded by companies is offering their employees Sinopharm vaccines supplied by the government.</p>
<p>This two-pronged approach will help increase vaccination numbers, but only a little. The corporate program is costly, and most medium-to-small enterprises — which represent <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-jakarta/documents/publication/wcms_695134.pdf">99% of businesses</a> in Indonesia — simply can’t afford it. </p>
<p>And the young, poor and unemployed — a fast-growing group as the economy continues to slide – have little hope of getting a jab.</p>
<h2>Scandals and data leaks</h2>
<p>Price-gouging, corruption and other crimes are only make things worse. Several civil servants were <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3134658/chinese-vaccines-meant-indonesian-prison-stolen-and-sold-public">arrested</a> last month, for example, for allegedly stealing Sinovac vaccines intended for a prison, to sell to the public. </p>
<p>Worse still, former social affairs minister Juliari Batubara <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/6/indonesia-juliari-batubara-named-suspect-in-covid-19-graft-case">stands accused</a> of taking 17 billion rupiah (A$1.5 million) in bribes related to the distribution of COVID-19 aid for the poor. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-coronavirus-fatalities-are-the-highest-in-southeast-asia-so-why-is-jokowi-rushing-to-get-back-to-business-144059">Indonesia's coronavirus fatalities are the highest in Southeast Asia. So, why is Jokowi rushing to get back to business?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And, most recently, the social security data of 279 million Indonesians — both alive and dead — is believed to have been <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2021/05/23/alleged-breach-of-bpjs-data-points-to-indonesias-weak-data-protection-experts.html">leaked</a> and sold on the dark web. </p>
<p>Pandemic fatigue has well and truly set in, and these high-profile scandals threaten to further deepen distrust between Indonesians and the government. The country will not fare well if predictions of an even bigger outbreak fuelled by new variants of the virus come true. </p>
<p>If this happens, the government will may well find itself facing a looming health catastrophe, rising social unrest and perhaps serious political tensions, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Lindsey has received funding from Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Walden is a PhD Candidate under the Australian Research Council-funded project "Indonesia's refugee policies: responsibility, security and regionalism".</span></em></p>New cases have more than doubled in the past two weeks, sparking concerns that last month’s Eid holiday could have been a super-spreader event.Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, The University of MelbourneMax Walden, PhD Candidate at Melbourne Law School, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1615102021-05-28T10:42:17Z2021-05-28T10:42:17Z‘Dog coronavirus found in humans’ – why you shouldn’t worry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403150/original/file-20210527-22-1q8kmex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C2001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Relax, humans! I'm not going to start the next pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/funny-looking-french-bulldog-dog-ears-1516040714">Firn/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Scientists have found a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-malaysia-covid-dog-pneumonia-b1851509.html">new canine coronavirus</a> in a handful of people hospitalised with pneumonia. This may sound alarming, but once we unpack it, you will see that there’s no reason to lose any sleep.</p>
<p>The discovery of the canine coronavirus in eight people at a hospital in Sarawak, Malaysia, was reported in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab456/6278597">Clinical Infectious Diseases</a> by a group of highly regarded international scientists. So does this mean dogs can spread coronaviruses to humans? </p>
<p>The first thing to clarify is what canine coronavirus is. Importantly, it is quite distinct from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The coronavirus family can be divided into four groups of viruses: alpha, beta, gamma and delta coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 falls within the betacoronaviruses group, whereas the canine coronaviruses are in the entirely separate alphacoronavirus group.</p>
<p>Scientists have known about canine coronaviruses for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/veterinary-science-and-veterinary-medicine/canine-coronavirus">almost 50 years</a>. These viruses have existed in relative obscurity over most of this period, being of interest only to veterinary virologists and occasional dog owners. There are no previous reports of these viruses infecting people. But the sudden international spotlight on all coronaviruses is finding coronaviruses in places we haven’t looked before.</p>
<p>The canine coronavirus infections recently identified in people were actually discovered serendipitously. Scientists were not specifically looking for canine coronavirus, and the patients involved had long since recovered. The researchers were trying to develop a new test that could detect all kinds of coronaviruses at the same time – a so-called <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab456/6278597">pan-CoV test</a>.</p>
<p>After confirming the test worked on samples of viruses grown in laboratories, they <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7192118/">tested it on 192 human swabs</a> from hospitalised pneumonia patients in Malaysia. Nine of these samples tested positive for coronaviruses. </p>
<p>Further analysis showed that five out of the nine samples were ordinary human coronaviruses that can cause colds. But, surprisingly, four of the samples were canine coronavirus. Further study of patients from the same hospital revealed four more positive patients.</p>
<p>The researchers studied nose and throat swabs from all eight Malaysian patients to try to learn more about the canine coronaviruses. Samples were put onto dog cells in the lab to see if any live virus was present. Virus from a single sample replicated well, and virus particles could be seen using electron microscopy. The scientists were also able to sequence the virus’s genome.</p>
<p>The analysis found that this canine coronavirus was closely related to a few different alphacoronaviruses – including those from pigs and cats – and showed it had not previously been identified anywhere else.</p>
<h2>No evidence of onward spread</h2>
<p>Was canine coronavirus responsible for the pneumonia in the patients? At the moment, we simply can’t tell. Seven out of eight patients were simultaneously infected with another virus, either adenovirus, influenza or parainfluenza virus. We know that all of these viruses can cause pneumonia by themselves, so it is more likely that these were responsible for the disease. We can say there is an association between pneumonia and canine coronavirus in these patients, but we can’t say it is the cause.</p>
<p>There have been concerns that the canine coronavirus identified in these Malaysian patients could spread from person to person, resulting in a wider outbreak. What many <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2021/05/24/new-coronavirus-appears-to-have-jumped-from-dogs-to-humans-in-malaysia-14633579/">headlines</a> don’t clarify is that these human infections actually occurred in 2017 and 2018. This makes the likelihood of a canine coronavirus outbreak from this source even lower as there is no evidence of onward spread in the intervening three to four years.</p>
<p>As coronaviruses have become the centre of attention and we search for related viruses, we are inevitably going to find more positive samples in unexpected places. The vast majority of these will be of academic interest only, and need not raise alarm. However, it is critical that surveillance for new coronaviruses continues and expands so that we have the best possible chance of identifying significant cross-species jumps in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah L Caddy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The risk of coronaviruses jumping species is low, but if you look for it, you will find it.Sarah L Caddy, Clinical Research Fellow in Viral Immunology and Veterinary Surgeon, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1567772021-03-23T15:20:51Z2021-03-23T15:20:51ZRegrowing a tropical forest – is it better to plant trees or leave it to nature?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390123/original/file-20210317-17-1i4c0te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7360%2C4263&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thammanoon Khamchalee / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The destruction of tropical forest is a major contributor to biodiversity loss and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-300-000-trees-only-to-find-that-rainforests-are-losing-their-power-to-help-humanity-133122">climate crisis</a>. In response, conservationists and scientists like us are debating how to best catalyse recovery of these forests. How do you take a patch of earth littered with tree stumps, or even a grassy pasture or palm oil plantation, and turn it back into a thriving forest filled with its original species?</p>
<p>Foresters have traditionally relied on planting trees, which seems obvious enough. Yet this approach has attracted criticism from some <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01026-8">restoration ecologists</a>, who argue that planting and caring for young trees is expensive and an inefficient use of scarce resources. They also point out that the carbon locked up in growing trees is quickly released into the atmosphere if plantations are harvested and used for short-lived wood products such as paper or cardboard.</p>
<p>There are even some well-documented case studies where tree planting has had negative outcomes. For instance, when forest cover was expanded on the Loess Plateau in China, soil erosion increased and there was <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618215002700">less water available for people and agriculture</a>. In Chile, subsidies for tree planting created a perverse incentive to plant trees instead of conserving natural forests. In the period between 2006 and 2011, the policy triggered a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0547-0">loss of natural forest cover</a> and no net change in the amount of carbon stored in trees across the country.</p>
<h2>Leave it to nature?</h2>
<p>The alternative approach is referred to as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2686-x?proof=t">natural regeneration</a>. This generally means protecting the area you want to regrow, perhaps with fences or new legislation, and then letting the forest recover spontaneously through dormant seeds lying buried in soil or with seeds dispersed by wind or animals.</p>
<p>Natural regeneration has many advantages: it requires limited infrastructure or technical know-how and is often cheap to implement. There is also widespread evidence that natural regeneration has been effective at catalysing the recovery of <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12709">forest biomass</a> and <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/5/e1501639">biodiversity</a>. It is tempting to view natural regeneration as a win-win solution for economic development and the environment.</p>
<p>But socio-ecological realities complicate this positive message. The critical first step is to secure the gains from any interventions, as both naturally regenerating and actively restored forest may continue to be degraded through over-harvesting if they are not protected. This requires the close participation of local communities and landowners in decision making, to ensure that the benefits and costs of forest restoration are distributed appropriately.</p>
<p>Natural regeneration often relies on animals to disperse the seeds. But in many tropical forests these animals, especially the larger birds and mammals that disperse the largest seeds, have been severely depleted by hunting. In the <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/11/e1501105.full">Atlantic forests of Brazil</a>, trees with larger seeds have more dense wood, and loss of large seed-dispersing mammals and birds such as tapirs and toucans may result in recovering forests becoming dominated by light-wooded trees which store less carbon. In south-east Asian rainforests, the dominant trees have winged seeds that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.1469">spin in the air over short distances</a>, and therefore can’t recolonise sites more than a few tens of metres away from a seed source</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A colourful bird sits on branch" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390140/original/file-20210317-21-uify67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Toucans use their big beaks to disperse seeds around Brazil’s Atlantic forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rafael Martos Martins / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical forests often regenerate naturally on abandoned lands distant from the original, untouched forests. Yet if limitations on seed dispersal mean they lack the tree species that were originally dominant, then these young forests will store carbon less quickly and become home to fewer animal species.</p>
<h2>A 20-year study</h2>
<p>So how does natural regeneration match up against a more active approach? We recently published the results of <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/838.abstract">a 20-year study</a> that tried to address this question. After a tropical forest in Malaysia had been logged back in the 1980s and 1990s, our international team first measured how much carbon it still stored in its remaining trees. We then tracked carbon storage across two decades in areas that had been left to regenerate naturally, and adjacent patches that had been actively restored by tree planting and cutting back competitive weeds and climbers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390706/original/file-20210320-17-tgbska.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research assistant Ridly Mansau records tree trunk diameters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonny Royal / SEARRP</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we compared the two, we found that the actively restored forest was storing carbon 50% faster than the forest left to regenerate naturally. This finding was supported by measuring the size and number of trees on the ground and by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320717310790">laser scanning the forest from an aeroplane</a>. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know how that increase was achieved. One possibility is that the planted trees filled the large gaps between the few large trees left by loggers, whereas equivalent patches in naturally regenerating forest were out of reach of natural seed dispersal. Greater spacing of young trees, combined with weeding out the competing vines and careful species selection, may have allowed them to grow faster and accumulate more carbon through time.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="plants grow in beds under a shady canopy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389650/original/file-20210315-21-gvbgk5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainforest tree seedlings are grown in a nursery before being planted in the restored forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonny Royal / SEARRP</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The restoration treatment was expensive, costing about US$1,500 (£1,080) per hectare of treated forest over the lifetime of the project. Some of this cost could be recovered through selling carbon credits (where polluters would pay for forest restoration to “offset” their own emissions), but covering the whole cost is unrealistic at current prices.</p>
<p>The high cost will inevitably limit the use of active restoration to the most disconnected or degraded sites where it is least likely that forests would regenerate naturally. Though we’ll have to rely on animals and wind to spread seeds in many settings, in other settings planting trees will be an ecological necessity we can’t afford to reject.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Burslem received funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council that contributed to this research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Philipson now works for the tropical forest protection developer Permian Global <a href="https://permianglobal.com">https://permianglobal.com</a>
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Cutler received funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland. The authors worked with the South East Asian Rainforest Research Programme on the project in Malaysia.</span></em></p>Scientists in Malaysia monitored a forest for 20 years after deforestation.David Burslem, Professor of Forest Ecology and Diversity, University of AberdeenChristopher Philipson, Senior Researcher, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichMark Cutler, Professor of Physical Geography, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1544892021-02-10T08:48:07Z2021-02-10T08:48:07ZPersecution, dire living conditions keep pushing Rohingya to seek better refuge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382435/original/file-20210204-18-wrerc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C113%2C2533%2C1569&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zikri/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Myanmar’s military coup earlier this month has revived <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-04/what-does-myanmars-military-coup-mean-for-the-rohingya/13114488">questions</a> about the persecution of Rohingya, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-coup-rohingya-refugees-bangladesh/a-56459279">stoking fears</a> among the refugees.</p>
<p>The United Nations has <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/people/reference/rohingya-people/#:%7E:text=Most%20live%20in%20Rakhine%20State,world%E2%80%9D%20by%20the%20United%20Nations.">described</a> Rohingya as “the most persecuted minority in the world” due to the systematic discrimination that they face. </p>
<p>The coup might have put Rohingya in an even more precarious situation. Many of them are now <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-coup-rohingya-refugees-bangladesh/a-56459279">more fearful of returning</a> to their homeland.</p>
<p>Ever since they were rendered stateless through the 1982 Burma Citizenship Law, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have fled to neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh. </p>
<p>Malaysia has been another destination country for Rohingya since the 1970s. However, being registered as refugees with the UN refugee agency UNHCR in Malaysia does not guarantee <a href="https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2019/02/25/time-for-a-comprehensive-policy-for-refugees/">legal rights to employment, education and healthcare</a>. </p>
<p>Rohingya people live at the margin of the society and are considered illegal migrants under the local laws. </p>
<p>What factors, then, compel Rohingya to take perilous journeys by sea and land to seek safety?</p>
<h2>Journey to safety</h2>
<p>Rohingya people habitually reside in Northern Rakhine State of Myanmar, which shares borders with Bangladesh. Thus, settlements in Bangladesh refugee camps are one option for the majority of Rohingya due to its proximity. </p>
<p><a href="https://ksr.hkspublications.org/2019/11/12/the-ruse-of-repatriation-why-the-current-efforts-to-repatriate-the-rohingya-back-to-myanmar-will-fail/">Repatriation deals with Bangladesh have not worked</a> because of the ongoing persecution in Myanmar. </p>
<p>Desperate refugees in the camps resort to smuggling and trafficking networks to reach Malaysia for a better life. </p>
<iframe title="" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-IFxGV" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IFxGV/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="495"></iframe>
<p>The perilous journey usually starts with crossing the Andaman Sea by boat to reach southern Thailand. </p>
<p>Upon arrival, human traffickers would detain them before they were released to enter Malaysia overland after paying a huge sum of money. Those who could not pay would be tortured and sold into slavery. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/14/malaysia-turns-back-migrant-boat-with-more-than-500-aboard">increased patrols by Thai and Malaysian authorities</a> caused Rohingya to be stranded at sea for months due to boat turnbacks. </p>
<p>Fortunately, <a href="https://www.iom.int/news/largest-rohingya-group-arrive-indonesia-2015-receives-support-north-aceh#:%7E:text=The%20296%20Rohingya%20%E2%80%93%20primarily%20women,as%20required%20by%20Indonesian%20authorities.">some found refuge in Aceh, Indonesia</a>, after being rescued by fishermen and sheltered by local authorities. </p>
<p>But their journey did not stop there. <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/world/region/2021/02/662431/missing-rohingya-refugees-indonesia-trafficked-malaysia">Many were trafficked</a> across the Straits of Malacca to reach Malaysia. This is due to family reunions and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yunizar_Adiputera/publication/328162053_Yunizar_Adiputera_Atin_Prabandari_ADDRESSING_CHALLENGES_and_IDENTIFYING_OPPORTUNITIES_for_REFUGEE_ACCESS_to_EMPLOYMENT_in_INDONESIA_POLICY_BRIEF/links/5bbc3ab8a6fdcc9552dcaada/Yunizar-Adiputera-Atin-Prabandari-ADDRESSING-CHALLENGES-and-IDENTIFYING-OPPORTUNITIES-for-REFUGEE-ACCESS-to-EMPLOYMENT-in-INDONESIA-POLICY-BRIEF.pdf">lack of livelihood opportunities</a> in Indonesia. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whoever-wins-the-us-election-human-rights-in-southeast-asia-are-losing-149440">Whoever wins the US election, human rights in Southeast Asia are losing</a>
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<h2>Push factors</h2>
<p>Two main factors push Rohingya to keep taking these risky journeys. </p>
<p><em>First</em>, decades of systematic discrimination and persecution by Myanmar force Rohingya to flee. </p>
<p>Having no citizenship means Rohingya are deprived of basic rights of livelihoods and freedom of movement. </p>
<p>Following the military crackdowns in 2017, which led to <a href="https://www.unocha.org/rohingya-refugee-crisis#:%7E:text=Yet%20it%20was%20August%202017,%20have%20fled%20into%20Cox's%20Bazar.">745,000 Rohingya seeking shelter in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh</a>, the International Court of Justice ruled that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/international-court-of-justice-orders-myanmar-to-prevent-genocide-against-the-rohingya/2020/01/23/ff383ff4-3d29-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html">Myanmar must take measures to prevent genocide</a> against this ethnic minority. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/myanmar-politics-int-idUSKBN2A11W6">Last week’s military coup</a> put Myanmar under a one-year state of emergency. Leaders of the National League for Democracy – the party that recently <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54899170">won an election in a landslide</a> – and other key politicians were detained. </p>
<p>Worryingly, the military general in power, <a href="https://time.com/5004822/myanmar-rohingya-min-aung-hlaing/">Min Aung Hlaing</a>, engineered the 2017 brutal crackdowns targeting Rohingya people, which democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/aung-san-suu-kyi-from-symbol-of-human-rights-to-fighting-claims-of-genocide-12205035">regrettably defended</a>. </p>
<p><em>Second</em>, lack of livelihood and educational opportunities cause refugees to leave Bangladesh and continue to look for a better place, such as Malaysia.</p>
<p>Being marooned in overcrowded and under-resourced refugee camps in Bangladesh means that Rohingya cannot live even at subsistence level. </p>
<p>Competition for resources with the impoverished locals also creates friction between the refugees and host society. </p>
<p>The lack of jobs and proper schooling leads Rohingya people to seek a better future, only to find themselves becoming victims of human trafficking syndicates.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Baca juga:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aceh-is-a-rare-place-of-welcome-for-rohingya-refugees-143833">Why Aceh is a rare place of welcome for Rohingya refugees</a>
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<h2>Could international sanctions work?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-sanctions-idUSTRE79A0YR20111011">Myanmar has faced various economic sanctions</a> due to its poor human rights record. </p>
<p>For instance, the US imposed broad sanctions on Myanmar after the crackdown on student protests in 1988 before finally <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-37375829">lifting them in 2016</a>. </p>
<p>To minimise the impacts of sanctions on the general public, the US then targeted sanctions against certain individuals and industries. In 2019, following the military operations against Rohingya, the US imposed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-myanmar-sanctions-idUSKBN1YE1XU">targeted sanctions on Myanmar military officials</a>. </p>
<p>However, these efforts did not stop the genocide against Rohingya and the oppression of other ethnic minorities like Kachin and Chin.</p>
<p>On the one hand, such sanctions would apply some pressure on Myanmar to be accountable. On the other hand, these actions could also be used by the military junta to justify and maintain their authoritarian rule and suspicion of the West.</p>
<p>Moreover, Myanmar is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-un-idUSKBN16O2J6">continuously backed by China and Russia</a> for their geopolitical interests. </p>
<h2>Sharing responsibility</h2>
<p>Moving forward, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must abandon its “non-interference” policy regarding the plight of Rohingya. </p>
<p>Over the years, rhetorical condemnations of Myanmar – one of the last three members to join the regional bloc – have been directed by Malaysia and Indonesia individually instead of collectively by ASEAN members. </p>
<p>In this regard, there should be closer co-operation with and support for Bangladesh, which bears the strains of hosting <a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/bangladesh-expects-start-rohingya-repatriation-myanmar-june">over 1.2 million refugees</a>. </p>
<p>Besides the monetary cost of hosting Rohingya – estimated to be <a href="https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/cost-supporting-rohingyas-dhaka-now-saddled-12b-year-1804855">over US$7 billion by 2024</a> – Bangladesh needs to be supported through development projects that meet the needs of both refugees and the locals hosting them. </p>
<p>Livelihood and educational opportunities are crucial to empower the Rohingya community and instil a sense of dignity and hope in their future. </p>
<p>Most importantly, the repatriation of Rohingya to Myanmar must come with citizenship and equal rights. </p>
<p>ASEAN should uphold its <a href="https://asean.org/asean-human-rights-declaration/">Human Rights Declaration</a> as an inclusive regional community that acts to save lives rather than merely becoming an economic bloc motivated solely by trade and investment at the expense of human rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Continued persecution in Myanmar and dire living condition in Bangladesh push Rohingya people to keep seeking refuge.Aslam Abd Jalil, PhD candidate, The University of QueenslandAtin Prabandari, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Universitas Gadjah Mada Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.