tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/png-6483/articlesPNG – The Conversation2023-01-16T19:04:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978912023-01-16T19:04:19Z2023-01-16T19:04:19ZWhere does Australia’s relationship with PNG go next? Less talk about China, more about our neighbour’s own merits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504575/original/file-20230116-25-ijtlmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Prime Minister's Office/PR Handout Image</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Papua New Guinea last week put the media spotlight on one of Australia’s most important international relationships. </p>
<p>Much of the coverage focused on the plans, confirmed by Albanese and his PNG counterpart, James Marape, for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-12/australia-papua-new-guinea-security-treaty-talks/101850840">defence treaty</a> between the two countries – and the role this might play in warding off China’s growing engagement in the region.</p>
<p>But PNG should not just be seen as important because of China, or the prospect that Australia’s position may be subject to challenge. The relationship deserves focus because of its own intrinsic challenges and opportunities.</p>
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<img alt="The opening ceremony of a new Chinese-funded road project in PNG." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504582/original/file-20230116-17501-re4r0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Spectators hold Chinese flags at a ceremony to mark the opening of a major road project funded and built by China in PNG’s capital.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Schiefelbein/AP</span></span>
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<h2>A land of opportunity</h2>
<p>PNG is not just Australia’s nearest neighbour – its coastline is a scant four kilometres from the nearest Queensland island. It’s also the largest Pacific country by far. The official census figure of more than nine million is almost double the size of New Zealand, and if the true figure is closer to 17 million <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/population-shock-puts-papua-new-guinea-in-peril-un-study/news-story/2acb85c8d91857203d81b823bfc304eb">as the UN has recently estimated</a>, PNG’s population appears set to outgrow Australia within the next decade or so. </p>
<p>PNG is already an influential partner for Australia when it comes to Pacific affairs, and its size and growing confidence will see it exert a stronger regional leadership role in the future.</p>
<p>PNG is also a land of considerable economic opportunity. While foreign investment flows are still directed mainly to petroleum, gold and copper, the country may also be an <a href="https://themarketherald.com.au/papua-new-guinea-the-next-global-resource-capital-2019-12-16/">important source of iron, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements</a> required to drive the post-carbon global economy. </p>
<p>It is also attracting strong <a href="https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2021/11/08/fortescue-future-industries-to-develop-portfolio-of-major-green-energy-and-hydrogen-projects-in-papua-new-guinea">interest as a potential source of renewable energy</a> for both domestic and export purposes. PNG’s fisheries wealth is extraordinary, as is its agricultural potential.</p>
<p>In addition, Papua New Guineans are keen to provide their services to help address gaps in our labour force, so Australia’s undertaking to improve the accessibility of visa services is important to both sides.</p>
<p>Given all this, the focus should very much be on opportunity as we look to the next phase in the Australia-PNG relationship. It’s certainly high time we moved on from the dominant narrative about PNG as a needy recipient of Australian aid – and little else.</p>
<p>Yes, Australia’s aid dollars remain important as PNG struggles with major development challenges across health, education, governance and law and order. But Canberra’s assistance program is not really that large relative to the size of PNG’s own national budget. And there is little precedent for foreign aid alone in bringing about economic transformation for a sovereign, developing country. </p>
<p>As a former Australian high commissioner to PNG, I know from experience that PNG’s leaders are often left feeling mystified and somewhat offended when Australian visitors speak about feeling “responsible” for the state of things in their country. </p>
<h2>How security ties will change moving forward</h2>
<p>A comprehensive defence treaty is the logical next step in the evolution of the links between the two nations. It reflects the commitment of the two leaders to project the relationship as one of “equals”. It also supports the growing sense PNG is a vital strategic partner to Australia in the Pacific. After all, PNG has already joined stabilisation missions in the Solomon Islands and responded to natural disasters in the region.</p>
<p>The two countries have had a very substantial defence cooperation program for decades, covering combined military exercises, training, infrastructure projects and advisory support. A formal treaty would now elevate these links, with formal ratification from both parliaments and serious legal commitments on both sides. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/penny-wongs-diplomacy-efforts-in-the-pacific-begin-to-bear-fruit-with-png-security-pact-189710">Penny Wong's diplomacy efforts in the Pacific begin to bear fruit with PNG security pact</a>
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<p>It would also, of course, signal that Australia, not China, is PNG’s partner of choice.</p>
<p>The content of the treaty is yet to be negotiated, but we can expect the military-to-military relationship to be taken to a new level, encompassing more intensive joint training and operations. </p>
<p>It is unclear whether this will include an agreement to base troops on each other’s soil, on a rotational or some other basis. But it is clear from Albanese’s comments in Port Moresby the enhanced security ties will focus on new threats, including cyber-security and climate change.</p>
<p>The Pacific is experiencing the same cyber-security disruptions Australia has recently. These countries have weaker defence systems than Australia’s. Vanuatu, for example, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63632129">fell victim</a> to a major ransomware attack last year. </p>
<p>The Australian government and defence force should play an important role in helping countries like PNG strengthen their capacities to protect vital strategic and other information from these types of attacks, especially given the
increasingly competitive geo-strategic conditions across the region. </p>
<p>China looms large as a concern here, and if Australia’s regional partners are vulnerable in this sense, then Australia is, too.</p>
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<h2>The threats posed by climate change</h2>
<p>Pacific Island leaders have made it very clear, however, they see climate change as the overriding threat to their security. </p>
<p>For them, <a href="https://pina.com.fj/2022/06/13/climate-change-a-bigger-threat-than-war-fiji-tells-security-summit/">the enemy</a> is increasingly frequent and harsh droughts and storms and the loss of arable land, which in turn threaten food security. International strategists depict these risks as a <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security/">threat multiplier</a>, disrupting food and water security, intensifying social fragility and straining weak institutions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-25/australian-defence-force-angus-campbell-climate-change-speech/11543464">There is already concern</a> that responding to natural disasters in the Pacific and at home could challenge the Australian Defence Force capacities over time.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security-it-must-be-a-political-priority-123264">Climate change poses a 'direct threat' to Australia's national security. It must be a political priority</a>
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<p>The security implications of climate change are actually <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10402659.2022.2023424">most stark</a> in everyday life in PNG. Tensions within family groups and communities in informal urban settlements, or between neighbouring tribal groups in more remote regions, can explode in ways that may not gain the attention of the international strategic community, but which nonetheless cause great social damage. </p>
<p>These tensions can lead to family and gender-based violence or tribal fighting over scarce resources. Lasting solutions to these issues cannot depend on foreign assistance alone; they will require PNG and its leadership to step more into the driving seat and take responsibility.</p>
<p>The same can be said of the overarching bilateral relationship between Australia and PNG. A partnership of equals will require PNG to work harder to set the direction of the relationship. The PNG government also needs to demonstrate it’s using its own funds well to address the development challenges our aid program is seeking to mitigate.</p>
<p>At the Australian end, the relationship needs to be better understood publicly
as important in its own right – not just because of China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197891/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Kemish is a former senior Australian diplomat who served, among other roles, as High Commissioner to Papua New Guinea. He is the voluntary chair of the Kokoda Track Foundation and provides consultancy support to the Global Partnership for Education in the Pacific. Both of these organisations receive some funding from the Australian Government.</span></em></p>The security treaty signed last week is the logical next step in the two countries’ relationship. But Australia’s interests in PNG should remain broad-based.Ian Kemish AM, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1887152022-08-15T23:49:12Z2022-08-15T23:49:12ZPNG elections show there is still a long way to go to stamp out violence and ensure proper representation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479076/original/file-20220815-51451-d3rbnw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C0%2C2973%2C2137&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Paramilitary police and soldiers patrol ballot boxes at Tari airport, Southern Highlands, PNG</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite Australia “stepping up” its relations with the Pacific since the election of the Albanese government, one of the notable things about the recent national election in Papua New Guinea (PNG) was the almost complete lack of coverage of it in Australian media – except for the odd report of violence.</p>
<h2>2022 election outcome</h2>
<p>For the record, voting took place across the country from July 4 to 22. Counting was supposed to be completed and writs returned by July 29, but that was extended to August 4. On August 9, with 99 of the 118 seats declared, the National Parliament met to elect a prime minister. </p>
<p>As leader of the party with the largest number of endorsed candidates elected (Pangu Pati with 36 members at August 9), outgoing prime minister James Marape was invited by the governor-general to form government and was re-elected to the office. Unusually, he was elected unopposed. </p>
<p>Like all other prime ministers before him, Marape heads a coalition government, including at least 17 parties and some independents. Most of the 17 parties have only one or two MPs and, with the independents, will probably merge with the larger parties in the early months of the new parliament. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479072/original/file-20220815-50243-ysktdq.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister James Marape was re-elected to office in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<p>The new parliament will include two women, better than the zero in 2017-2022, but still a disappointing result given the efforts to promote women candidates, whose numbers were fewer in 2022 than in 2017. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-papua-new-guinea-urgently-needs-to-elect-more-women-to-parliament-188058">Why Papua New Guinea urgently needs to elect more women to parliament</a>
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<h2>Previous volatility</h2>
<p>In many parts of the country, this year’s elections were carried out without incident or drama. The previous election, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/30/unprecedented-violence-and-hijacked-2017-png-election-report">in 2017</a>, was widely described as the worst in the nation’s history, with inaccurate electoral rolls, vote-buying and intimidation of voters in some parts of the country. </p>
<p>The election was also afflicted by delays in polling and counting, theft and destruction of ballot boxes, and violence throughout. This included an estimated 200 “election-related deaths” (though “election-related deaths” are difficult to measure in a country where intergroup and domestic violence are endemic). </p>
<p>Some observers have suggested the 2022 election was more flawed and more violent than that of 2017, despite a substantial security presence and logistic support from the Australian Defence Force. A clearer picture will emerge once the reports of the ANU-coordinated domestic monitoring teams have been processed. However, the number of “election-related deaths” to date has been put at 50. </p>
<p>Counting has been delayed in several electorates, and elections may have <a href="https://pina.com.fj/2022/07/20/png-electoral-commissioner-no-election-will-be-deemed-as-failed/">failed</a> in at least three electorates due to allegations of vote fixing and other problems. Two of the potential failed election cases are in Morobe Province, while counting has been delayed in electorates of the National Capital District (Port Moresby) where violence has occurred.</p>
<h2>Societal and political context of election violence</h2>
<p>To understand the problems of elections in Papua New Guinea, and the violence associated with them, it is necessary to appreciate the social and political context in which elections take place. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/volatile-times-as-rivals-claim-throne-in-papua-new-guinea-expert-reactions-4745">Volatile times as rivals claim throne in Papua New Guinea: expert reactions</a>
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<p>Around <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=PG">80-85%</a> of Papua New Guineans live in rural villages and hamlets with limited involvement in the cash economy. Politics therefore tends to be heavily localised. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479074/original/file-20220815-56005-bp0kzv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Around 80% of PNG’s population live in rural villages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<p>Political parties play a very minor role in how electors vote. Voters tend to vote for candidates they believe will give them access to government and bring them local services and other benefits – usually members of their clan or former public servants or businessmen who have a good local record. </p>
<p>Competition to get elected is intense, with large and growing numbers of candidates contesting in most electorates (on average 29 per electorate in 2022, but over 70 in two electorates). Some candidates invest large sums of money campaigning, including vote buying. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2022 election, as in 2017, there were reports of sophisticated weapons being imported and distributed among candidates’ supporters in the highlands. The weapons were presumably for use in case of confrontations between rival candidates and their supporters.</p>
<h2>Voting shifts</h2>
<p>In 2007, Papua New Guinea shifted from a <a href="https://education.aec.gov.au/getvoting/content/types-of-elections.html#:%7E:text=First%2Dpast%2Dthe%2Dpost&text=Only%20mark%20one%20box.,to%20choose%20their%20first%20preference.">first-past-the-post system of voting</a>, where the voter casts a single vote for the candidate of their choice, to one of <a href="https://www.ecanz.gov.au/electoral-systems/preferential">limited preferential voting</a>, where voters can indicate an order of preference for three candidates on their ballots. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-political-crisis-in-papua-new-guinea-4796">Explainer: political crisis in Papua New Guinea </a>
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<p>This change was made in the hope of encouraging cooperation between candidates and reducing confrontation. However, there has been little evidence of changed behaviour. In some electorates, candidates have sought to prevent rivals from campaigning in the candidate’s core support area, even to the point of shooting at a helicopter bringing in a rival candidate.</p>
<p>Treacherous terrain, poor road networks and remote locations in much of the country have made it difficult and expensive to organise polling and to transport ballot boxes safely to counting centres. These physical conditions also contribute to the difficulties of compiling accurate electoral rolls, a continuing source of anger among voters whose names cannot be found on the rolls. </p>
<h2>Corruption, control and other factors</h2>
<p>However, the problems of inaccurate rolls and delayed polling are not just the result of geography and terrain, or even of inadequate or tardy payments from the government to the Electoral Commission and from the Electoral Commission to polling officials. </p>
<p>The ability of the Electoral Commission in Port Moresby to control what goes on at the local polling level is limited. Domestic monitoring in 2017 reported a number of instances where politicians appointed partisan polling officials. In other cases, supporters of candidates, sometimes in association with polling officials, filled out multiple ballots for one candidate – a reason that ballot boxes have sometimes been stolen of destroyed.</p>
<p>In 2022, almost 10,300 police and defence force personnel were deployed to provide security for polling; in designated “hotspots,” polling was limited to one day to maximise the coverage of security details. These efforts undoubtedly had an impact but were not sufficient to completely eliminate violence from frustrated would-be voters or supporters who believed that their candidate had been cheated.</p>
<p>After being elected, Marape promised to review and reform the voting process. However, it is difficult to see what can be done without a fundamental change in the behaviour of candidates, their supporters, and the voters themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188715/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ron May does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More needs to be done to improve the violence and corruption that are still endemic in the PNG electoral process.Ron May, Emertius Fellow, attached to the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia Program, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1855802022-06-29T19:55:33Z2022-06-29T19:55:33ZAustralia can help ensure the biggest mine in PNG’s history won’t leave a toxic legacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471307/original/file-20220628-17-gv5xbh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C0%2C5988%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID pandemic slowed mining operations across the Pacific. But as economic activity returns, an Australia-based company is poised to pursue what would be the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/plan-for-largest-mine-in-png-history-appears-to-disregard-human-rights-un-says">largest</a> mine in Papua New Guinea’s history. </p>
<p>The vast gold and copper project, known as the Frieda River mine, would also include a hydroelectric plant and a dam with a storage capacity for around <a href="https://friedariver.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Chapter-5-Description-of-the-Proposed-Development.pdf">4.6 billion tonnes</a> of mine tailings and waste rock.</p>
<p>The project is awaiting approval by the PNG government. However, locals, conservationists and experts say it could cause catastrophic harm to one of the world’s most important river systems and should not proceed as proposed.</p>
<p>Australia is PNG’s largest development partner. As resource extraction expands across the Pacific, the new Labor government is well placed to help our neighbours ensure mining activity doesn’t harm people or the environment.</p>
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<img alt="man prepares food over fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471318/original/file-20220628-13-k3n6bj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The project threatens catastrophic harm to one of the world’s most important river systems, and the people who depend on it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Remote, unstable terrain</h2>
<p>The Frieda River mine is <a href="https://friedariver.com">proposed by</a> Brisbane-based, Chinese-owned company Pan Aust. </p>
<p>The project centres on the Frieda River copper-gold deposit located in the tropical mountain ranges of northwest PNG.</p>
<p>The river flows into the Sepik River Basin, <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/5065/%20%C2%A0%20%20%C2%A0">one of</a> the world’s great river systems. It’s the largest unpolluted freshwater system in New Guinea and among the largest freshwater basins in the Asia-Pacific. </p>
<p>The Frieda River deposit was discovered in the 1960s. It lies in extremely remote terrain, along the Pacific Ring of Fire which is prone to seismic activity.</p>
<p>The mine would produce tailings (or waste materials) containing sulphide, which turns into sulphuric acid when exposed to oxygen. For this reason, the tailings must be permanently covered by water.</p>
<p>The proposed mine’s location, high in the mountains, means a tailings accident could devastate the entire Sepik River Basin.</p>
<p>About 430,000 people depend on the Sepik River and nearby forests for their livelihood. The proposal has <a href="https://savethesepik.org/campaign/frieda-river-mine/">galvanised</a> massive opposition from both locals and others.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-push-into-png-has-been-surprisingly-slow-and-ineffective-why-has-beijing-found-the-going-so-tough-140073">China's push into PNG has been surprisingly slow and ineffective. Why has Beijing found the going so tough?</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people in boat on grey river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471074/original/file-20220627-15980-ag1u74.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Villagers travelling along PNG’s Fly River which is choked by tailings from the Ok Tedi mine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Downplaying the risks</h2>
<p>In 2020, ten independent experts including myself, were commissioned by PNG’s Centre for Environmental Law and Community Rights to individually review the project’s “<a href="https://friedariver.com/eis/">environmental impact statement</a>”. The work was undertaken pro bono. </p>
<p>I’m an experienced gold exploration geologist and environmental scientist. In my <a href="https://savethesepik.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/5.-Michael-Main-Geological-and-social.pdf">review</a>, I found the statement downplayed or obscured the proposal’s extraordinary level of risk. </p>
<p>First, it omitted a report by design engineers that analysed the extreme consequences of dam failure. </p>
<p>Second, the main report failed to mention the dam would need an intensive inspection and maintenance regime “in perpetuity”. In other words, a potentially toxic dam in a remote part of a very poor country requires highly skilled and experienced professionals to maintain it – not just for the 33-year life of the mine, but forever.</p>
<p>Our reports <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/un-human-rights-experts-raise-concerns-over-frieda-mine/12716156">prompted</a> a group of UN Special Rapporteurs to write <a href="https://spcommreports.ohchr.org/TmSearch/Mandates?m=27">letters of concern</a> to the governments of PNG, Australia, China and Canada, where companies involved in the joint venture have ties.</p>
<p>The letters said the mine’s development appeared to “disregard the human rights of those affected … given the nature of the project it could undermine the rights of Sepik children to life, health, culture, and a healthy environment, including the rights of unborn generations.”</p>
<p>The Conversation contacted Pan Aust for a response to these claims. In a statement, the company said it was “respectfully engaged in the Government of Papua New Guinea’s approvals process” and as such, it was inappropriate to provide a public comment.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/destitution-on-australias-hardening-border-with-png-and-the-need-for-a-better-aid-strategy-135038">Destitution on Australia's hardening border with PNG – and the need for a better aid strategy</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="villagers sit in hall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471319/original/file-20220628-13-5luxdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The UN said the mine’s development seemed to disregard the human rights of those affected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>New safeguards are needed</h2>
<p>Inadequate consideration of a mine’s social and environmental impact is rife cross the Pacific. And PNG provides many examples of the catastrophes that can result.</p>
<p>Tailings from BHP’s <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/discover/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/new_guinea_forests/problems_forests_new_guinea/mining_new_guinea/ok_tedi_forest_new_guinea/">ill-fated Ok-Tedi mine</a>, located in the same mountain range as the proposed Frieda River mine, severely damaged nearby rivers. </p>
<p>And environmental damage from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/panguna-mine-at-centre-of-bloody-bougainville-conflict-set-to-reopen-after-30-years">Panguna copper mine</a> was a key factor in community unrest and the Bougainville civil war.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969720338973">research</a> into governance of mining in PNG found government agencies were under-resourced, leaving “companies as effectively self-regulating”. </p>
<p>Proponents of mining in PNG frequently cite its contribution to economic development. But for the benefits to be realised, resources must be extracted in a way that is environmentally, socially and economically sustainable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="large open cut mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471527/original/file-20220629-15-a8rbm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Panguna copper mine, which triggered major civil unrest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ilya Gridneff/AAP</span></span>
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<p>New laws are needed to ensure resource extraction projects in PNG don’t cause long-lasting social and environmental damage. This should include mandatory, transparent and independent reviews of projects. </p>
<p>Australia has extensive experience with environmental regulation of mining projects and can assist in this regard. Such assistance should be delivered in a way that strengthens relations between Australia and PNG, and <a href="https://devpolicy.org/publications/reports/DFAT-AusAIDIntegrationReview-FullVersion.pdf">empowers and equips</a> the smaller nation. </p>
<p>Sustainable development for our Pacific neighbours is in Australia’s strategic interests. Australian companies often benefit significantly from resource extraction in PNG, creating an extra responsibility to ensure better outcomes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brutal-war-and-rivers-poisoned-with-every-rainfall-how-one-mine-destroyed-an-island-147092">A brutal war and rivers poisoned with every rainfall: how one mine destroyed an island</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Main was one of ten independent expert reviewers of the Environmental Impact Statement for the Sepik Development Project and advises on resource extraction projects in the Pacific.</span></em></p>The project threatens catastrophic harm to one of the world’s most important river systems, and the people who depend on it.Michael Main, Visiting Scholar, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1693562021-10-10T19:09:31Z2021-10-10T19:09:31ZPNG and Fiji were both facing COVID catastrophes. Why has one vaccine rollout surged and the other stalled?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425385/original/file-20211008-21-o2n29p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C41%2C4497%2C3049&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hannah Peters/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Things were looking very bad three months ago for both Papua New Guinea and Fiji. The two Pacific countries were each looking very vulnerable to the COVID Delta variant, albeit in different ways. </p>
<p>On July 10, PNG recorded its first official Delta case, and the nation’s health professionals were soon warning the combination of very low testing rates, high percentage of positive tests and an extremely slow vaccine rollout provided a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/png-authorities-order-corpses-to-be-swabbed-amid-fear-of-undetected-delta-outbreak">recipe for a major spread</a>”. </p>
<p>Fiji was already in the thick of it at the time. After the deadly Delta strain entered the country via a quarantine breach in April, per capita infection rates became the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/fiji-in-crisis-as-country-hits-record-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/">highest in the world</a> in the middle of the year. </p>
<p>Daily infections <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2021/sep/30/how-are-australias-neighbours-faring-in-the-covid-pandemic">reached more than 1,800</a> in mid-July – a huge number for a country of only 900,000 people. The crisis caused 647 deaths. </p>
<p>Fast forward several months and PNG and Fiji are heading in opposite directions. More than <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-top-doctor-who-s-seen-95-per-cent-of-adults-in-his-country-vaccinated-on-what-he-s-learnt/842f024e-2f21-446c-b4e6-e7c180d8aee0">95% of eligible Fijians</a> over the age of 18 have now received their first jab, and <a href="https://twitter.com/FijianGovt/status/1446704512773722114">80% are now fully vaccinated</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1446704512773722114"}"></div></p>
<p>By contrast, PNG is in the grips of a major wave, with <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL">less than 1%</a> of the total population fully vaccinated. PNG is trailing much of the world.</p>
<p>Why have two Pacific countries, which share Melanesian cultural connections, handled their vaccine rollouts so differently?</p>
<h2>Not a matter of geography or vaccine supply</h2>
<p>Fiji’s daily infection rate today is <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/fiji/">4% of what it was at the peak</a>, and it’s falling. Less than 50 new cases are currently being reported on average each day. </p>
<p>In PNG, the official infection rate is now <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/papua-new-guinea">averaging just under 300 new cases</a> per day, but this drastically understates the reality of what is happening in the country. </p>
<p>Extremely low testing rates simply cannot be relied upon. The country’s own health data reportedly <a href="https://devpolicy.org/covid-19-in-png-the-silent-dead-20211006/">shows 2.6 million cases of flu- and pneumonia-like symptoms over the last year</a>, and Port Moresby General Hospital is now reporting positive COVID <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/png-crippled-by-covid19-delta-variant-and-social-media-misinformation/news-story/6ccf98a2c939a5e6d1979643fbccc7cf">testing rates of 60%</a>. Like other hospitals across the country, it risks being overwhelmed by the virus.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pacific-went-a-year-without-covid-now-its-all-under-threat-158963">The Pacific went a year without COVID. Now, it's all under threat</a>
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<p>It’s not simply a vaccine supply issue. At this stage of the global crisis, PNG, like Fiji, has received substantial vaccine deliveries - principally from Australia, New Zealand and the <a href="https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covax-explained">COVAX vaccine delivery initiative</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, thousands of PNG’s early deliveries went to waste because the health authorities were unable to use them. The PNG government has recently made the best of a bad situation by <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/wellington/126518205/papua-new-guinea-forced-to-transfer-vaccines-donated-by-new-zealand">re-gifting 30,000 vials donated by New Zealand to Vietnam</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1443470695611211779"}"></div></p>
<p>We can also set aside any suggestion Australia, as the major regional donor, is somehow favouring one country over the other. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/pacific/australia-stepping-up-to-address-covid-19-in-the-pacific">The Australian government</a> has put a high priority on providing vaccines to both countries in recent months. Its assistance has also extended to education and logistical efforts, along with targeted medical emergency teams and support for <a href="https://www.internationalsos.com/news-releases/international-sos-supporting-png-and-australia-governments-in-png-vaccination-programme-delivery-mar-30-2021">those with expertise and capacity on the ground</a>. </p>
<p>Nor is it really a matter of distribution. </p>
<p>PNG’s geography does present some challenging physical barriers to distributing vaccines - its legendary mountainous terrain and the remoteness of many of its inhabitants are well known. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-wants-to-send-1-million-vaccine-doses-to-png-but-without-reliable-electricity-how-will-they-be-kept-cold-156798">Australia wants to send 1 million vaccine doses to PNG – but without reliable electricity, how will they be kept cold?</a>
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<p>But companies from Digicel to South Pacific Brewery manage to penetrate the most inaccessible areas with their products despite these difficulties. And the authorities manage to deliver the vote across the nation every five years in what is one of the world’s most extraordinary democratic exercises. </p>
<p>With its own rugged terrain and dispersed populations across multiple islands, Fiji has also faced <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/pacific-step-needs-covid-era-reboot">major physical impediments</a> to its vaccine rollout.</p>
<h2>The major difference: leadership and belief</h2>
<p>We get closer to the problem when we think in terms of trust, understanding and belief. </p>
<p>Fijians have embraced the vaccination rollout almost as one, following the guidance of their <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-top-doctor-who-s-seen-95-per-cent-of-adults-in-his-country-vaccinated-on-what-he-s-learnt/842f024e-2f21-446c-b4e6-e7c180d8aee0">medical authorities</a> and falling in line with the firm “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-09/fiji-to-make-vaccine-compulsory/100281540">no jabs, no job</a>” policy of its prime minister, former military commander Frank Bainimarama. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1445705941647720448"}"></div></p>
<p>In PNG, the term “vaccine hesitancy” understates the problem. One <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5fb4723e225bcb20d28f0f76/t/60c13e58a5f6235154c9ff56/1623277161226/Vaccine_Survey_Report_Final.pdf">survey earlier this year</a> showed worrying low willingness to take the vaccine, and another <a href="https://devpolicy.org/vaccine-hesitancy-in-png-results-from-a-survey-20210624/">survey of university students</a> showed a mere 6% wanted it. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-10/png-vaccine-hesitancy-papua-new-guinea-covid-19/100444380">Vaccine patrols have received death threats in some areas</a>, and any politician who speaks out in favour of vaccination risks a political backlash. Strong efforts are now being made to overcome this problem, with the health authorities preparing a fresh approach and iconic figures such as rugby star <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=807067373528477">Mal Meninga supporting the publicity effort.</a></p>
<p>These dramatically contrasting pictures cannot be explained fully through differences in education standards, or the quality of medical advice and attention.<br>
To be sure, Fiji leads PNG in these respects – Fiji has 99% literacy compared to just over 63% in PNG, according to the latest available figures. And while Fiji’s medical system has its challenges, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/09/papua-new-guineas-health-system-unprepared-covid-19">the decline in PNG’s health services</a> due to chronic lack of investment puts it in a very different category. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pacific-nations-grapple-with-covids-terrible-toll-and-the-desperate-need-for-vaccines-164769">Pacific nations grapple with COVID's terrible toll and the desperate need for vaccines</a>
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<p>In PNG, trust in leadership has flagged following decades of frustration with growing wealth inequality and concerns over governance and transparency. </p>
<p>Rather than trust official sources, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-papua-idUSKBN2BO46Y">people often look to Facebook and other social media for their information</a>, and are thus vulnerable to the dangerous nonsense peddled by the anti-vaccination movement in the west. </p>
<p>I know how quickly Papua New Guineans tap into what’s happening in neighbouring Australia, too. They will have seen how the public debate here has dented confidence in the AstraZeneca brand – the mainstay of their own vaccine supply. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1374966466626297864"}"></div></p>
<p>But perhaps most troubling of all is the sense that many Papua New Guineans have developed a fatalistic belief that COVID is <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/png-crippled-by-covid19-delta-variant-and-social-media-misinformation/news-story/6ccf98a2c939a5e6d1979643fbccc7cf">just another health challenge</a> to add to the litany of other serious problems facing the country, among them maternal mortality, malaria and tuberculosis. </p>
<p>It’s almost as if they believe this is all somehow PNG’s lot. But it doesn’t need to be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Kemish is a former Australian diplomat, serving as high commissioner to PNG from 2010 to 2013. He currently chairs the Kokoda Track Foundation, which receives some funding from the Australian Government for its work to combat Covid-19 in PNG, and is Pacific representative for the World Bank's Global Partnership for Education. He is a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute's Pacific program.</span></em></p>In Fiji, 95% of adults have received one jab and 80% are fully vaccinated. In PNG, however, less than 1% of the population is fully vaccinated – and the country is giving away its vaccines.Ian Kemish AM, Former Ambassador and Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1647692021-08-03T20:09:18Z2021-08-03T20:09:18ZPacific nations grapple with COVID’s terrible toll and the desperate need for vaccines<p>Fiji now heads the <a href="https://www.health.gov.fj/">grim list</a> of <a href="https://www.spc.int">Pacific nations</a> counting their dead from coronavirus, having just passed Papua New Guinea’s toll. So far, 254 Fijians have died from the disease, and the nation is recording 1,000 new cases every day. </p>
<p>But numbers are an inadequate and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/fiji-covid-numbers/13473382">inaccurate</a> way to calculate the cost of the pandemic in the Pacific. Even in the Pacific’s COVID-free countries, the pandemic casts an ominous shadow. </p>
<p>The Delta variant has drastically altered the situation for the Pacific. It was first detected in Fiji in April and spread <a href="https://www.health.gov.fj/ps-health-press-statement-25-04-2021/">quickly</a>. This is despite Fiji being the <a href="https://www.unicef.org/pacificislands/stories/fiji-becomes-first-country-pacific-receive-covid-19-vaccines">first Pacific nation</a> to receive AstraZeneca vaccines through the COVAX program in March. </p>
<p>The Bainimarama government is being blamed for not executing a rapid mass vaccination campaign and not sufficiently <a href="https://www.fijitimes.com/150m-lockdown-question-government-refused-to-lock-down-mp-qereqeretabua/">locking down</a> the nation. The other contagion accompanying coronavirus around the globe – <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018803808/fiji-battling-misinformation-amid-covid-19-crisis-un-official">misinformation</a> – has also been blamed for widespread Fijian <a href="https://www.fijitimes.com/seruiratu-human-behaviour-and-human-rights-biggest-challenge-against-covid-19-fight/">vaccine</a> reluctance. </p>
<p>Now Fiji’s government is desperately fighting to contain the outbreak. <a href="https://www.fijitimes.com/nsw-mistakes-are-lessons-for-fiji/">Fears</a> are circulating that it is facing a repeat of the <a href="https://measlesrubellainitiative.org/fiji-and-measles-from-devastation-to-elimination/">1875 measles epidemic</a> that killed about 40,000 people. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414110/original/file-20210802-21-1ugfp49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Fijian government is desperately trying to contain its COVID outbreak.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Aileen Torres-Bennett/AP/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="https://www.fijitimes.com/vaccination-and-human-rights/">mandatory vaccination order</a> was issued on July 8 to all government workers. Non-compliance will be punished by job loss. Currently, <a href="https://tupaia.org/supplychain_fiji/FJ/COVID-19%20Fiji?overlay=FJ_COVID_TRACKING_Dose_1_SubDistrict_Percentage_Vaccinated">25%</a> of Fijians are fully vaccinated. The government has also expanded <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447772/covid-19-new-curfew-hours-for-fiji-as-more-deaths-cases-confirmed">curfews</a> for the main island and the outbreak epicentre, Viti Levu. </p>
<p>Beyond the urgency of saving lives and halting the disease’s spread, Fiji is also <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447083/fiji-govt-unveils-us1-point-78-billion-covid-19-budget">economically</a> devastated by the pandemic. Most Pacific borders were closed by March 2020, instantly cutting the economic lifeblood of tourism.</p>
<p>Being a Pacific hub, Fiji is a dangerous launching point for the Delta strain to other nations. In early July, for example, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447366/nine-cases-of-covid-19-among-fiji-arrivals-to-nz">nine travellers</a> from Fiji arrived in New Zealand infected with COVID-19.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pacific-went-a-year-without-covid-now-its-all-under-threat-158963">The Pacific went a year without COVID. Now, it's all under threat</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>The Solomons and Vanuatu</h2>
<p>Repatriating students and their families from Fiji remains a serious concern for both the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447353/pacific-news-in-brief-on-wednesday-21-july">Solomon Islands</a> and <a href="https://dailypost.vu/opinion/polls-should-the-government-repatriate-all-students-from-fiji/article_a7d66c02-e81f-11eb-913d-73ae212ec04d.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share">Vanuatu</a>. The <a href="https://www.sibconline.com.sb/repatriation-from-fiji-will-be-decided-when-it-is-safe-for-solomon-islands/?fbclid=IwAR3vkT4V0bOX4IMadkDAVhzK0kv_BkjWwUFoOIYf_W1DE77iky_L6yx4rdM">Solomons</a> has decided to repatriate some, but most will remain in Fiji until more vaccines have been administered at home (currently under <a href="https://covidvax.live/location/slb">3%</a> are fully <a href="https://stats.pacificdata.org/vis?tm=covid&pg=0&df%5Bds%5D=SPC2&df%5Bid%5D=DF_COVID_VACCINATION&df%5Bag%5D=SPC&df%5Bvs%5D=1.0&pd=2021-02-02%2C&dq=D..&ly%5Bcl%5D=INDICATOR&ly%5Brw%5D=TIME_PERIOD">vaccinated</a>). </p>
<p>Vanuatu’s low <a href="https://dailypost.vu/news/24-000-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-administered-marking-milestone-for-vanuatu/article_24da7cde-ef28-11eb-a277-0f230a0e9c32.html">vaccination</a> rate of under <a href="https://dailypost.vu/news/7-9-of-vanuatu-population-vaccinated-so-far/article_5e320214-eb30-11eb-a320-b73c2f1731cd.html">8%</a> also makes the return of students a <a href="https://dailypost.vu/news/fiji-students-repatriation-risky/article_0fcd5682-e293-11eb-9d69-73d978a93b9c.html">perilous</a> decision for lawmakers. Like Fiji, it is now considering a “<a href="https://dailypost.vu/news/no-jabs-no-job-will-vanuatu-be-adopting-this-policy/article_7b34b200-e818-11eb-83f2-9fcb0274dc75.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share">no jab, no job</a>” policy. </p>
<p>In addition to the risks posed by Fiji, both nations have had numerous <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/coronavirus-covid19-vanuatu-fiji-lockdowns-dead-body-beach/100080846">scares</a> from infected shipping <a href="https://www.solomontimes.com/news/frontliners-test-negative-after-cargo-vessel-scare/10974">crews</a>. All Pacific nations must contend with this border vulnerability. </p>
<h2>Papua New Guinea</h2>
<p>The havoc unfolding in Fiji is bad news for Papua New Guinea. Though PNG recorded its first COVID-19 case in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/papua-new-guinea-declares-state-of-emergency-after-first-coronavirus-case">March 2020</a>, it was not until <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/morrison-and-marape-hold-crisis-talks-as-threat-of-covid-spread-from-png-grows-20210316-p57b5b.html">one year later</a> that a health crisis erupted. </p>
<p>PNG’s official <a href="https://www.spc.int/updates/blog/2021/07/covid-19-pacific-community-updates">toll</a> is almost certainly the tip of the iceberg, as COVID testing was scaled back once vaccinations became the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447015/delta-variant-confirmed-in-png">main focus</a> for health authorities. And this was before PNG’s first confirmed case of the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447015/delta-variant-confirmed-in-png">Delta variant</a> was announced on July 16. </p>
<p>Again, mass vaccinations are PNG’s only defence. Vaccine donations have arrived from various sources, but only about <a href="https://covidvax.live/location/png">1%</a> of the population is fully vaccinated according to available government reporting. </p>
<p>Australia has already donated thousands of doses to PNG and other Pacific nations, but with a reported stockpile of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/number-of-unused-astrazeneca-vaccines-in-australia-tops-3-million-20210727-p58di3.html">3 million</a> unused doses of AstraZeneca, the Pacific nations would be obvious places to send these.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414107/original/file-20210802-22-jzhupt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia has donated vaccines to its neighbour PNG, but across the Pacific much more help is needed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AP/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Papua and West Papua</h2>
<p>Over PNG’s border with Indonesia, COVID-19’s spread is clashing with another surge in political unrest. Tensions had been building again following the rebel killing of an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/27/world/asia/indonesia-general-papua.html">Indonesian general</a> in April. Then Indonesian legislators voted on July 17 to again controversially <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2021/07/17/indonesian-lawmakers-adopt-unpopular-bill-to-reshape-papua/">reshape Papua</a>. </p>
<p>Protests occurred at the same time the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/west-papua-covid/13448000">Delta variant</a> entered the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/delta-variant-taking-hold-indonesias-papua-hospitals-near-capacity-2021-07-22/">community</a>. <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2021/07/14/indonesian-police-tighten-covid-entry-controls-in-west-papuan-districts/">Police controls</a> limiting movements into rebel areas, ostensibly to curb COVID, have increased. </p>
<p>Papuan activists are concerned vaccine distribution will be withheld from rebel populations as an Indonesian tactic to further weaken them. West Papua leader Benny Wenda has called on the West to vaccinate Indigenous Papuans because COVID is an additional existential threat to his people. Wenda’s fears may have foundation. The Papua province has the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/delta-variant-taking-hold-indonesias-papua-hospitals-near-capacity-2021-07-22/">lowest vaccination</a> rates in Indonesia, at about 6%. </p>
<h2>Elsewhere in the Pacific</h2>
<p>The news is better in other parts of the Pacific. Numerous Pacific nations, including <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/to">Tonga</a>, <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/pw">Palau</a>, <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/fm">Federated States of Micronesia</a> and <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/as">American Samoa</a>, have not recorded any confirmed COVID cases. <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/1420476341271502849?s=20">Kiribati</a> recently reported its first case, matching <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/ws">Samoa</a>’s record to date. </p>
<p>The natural isolation of many Pacific populations will protect them for only so long. Analysis of the 1918 <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3320443/">influenza</a> epidemic shows outbreaks persisted in the Pacific through to 1921. When it reached the phosphate-mining island of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30178-6/fulltext">Nauru</a> in 1920, it killed 18% of the local populace. </p>
<p>A century later, Nauru has vaccinated all its adults against COVID and claims this as a “<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210512-nauru-vaccinates-all-its-adults-in-world-record-effort">world record</a>”. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/pacific/446925/niue-achieves-herd-immunity-for-covid-19">Niue</a> has also achieved herd immunity thanks to New Zealand’s swift donation of Pfizer vaccines, a process now being repeated in <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/1416897445854736387?s=20">Tokelau</a>. The <a href="https://covidvax.live/en/location/cok">Cook Islands</a>, with its more complex geography, nonetheless has a high vaccination rate (55%) sustaining the <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/pacific-islands/125199160/cook-islands-travel-bubble-what-you-need-to-know-before-you-go">travel bubble</a> with New Zealand that opened in May 2021.</p>
<p>In the US territory of Guam, where the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/412328/coronavirus-guam-confirms-pacific-s-first-covid-19-death">first COVID death</a> in the Pacific was recorded in March 2020, tourism and vaccinations have merged in a different way. Travellers from Taiwan began taking “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/taiwan-guam-vaccination-travel-intl-hnk/index.html">vacation and vaccination</a>” trips from early July. While Guam recently reached <a href="https://www.pacificislandtimes.com/post/guam-achieves-herd-immunity-restrictions-lifted-life-back-to-normal">80% vaccinated</a>, it also recorded its <a href="https://www.pacificislandtimes.com/post/guam-reports-142nd-covid-death">142nd death</a> attributed to the pandemic.</p>
<p>Like Guam, <a href="https://covidvax.live/location/plw">Palau</a> got fast and adequate supplies of vaccines because of its <a href="https://share.america.gov/us-covid-19-vaccines-pacific-island-nations/">freely associated</a> relationship with the US. This has shielded them from the pandemic with near herd immunity. </p>
<p>Yet Hawaii is seeing the same recent surge as is afflicting mainland US. The <a href="https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2021/07/28/this-hawaii-island-hospital-is-seeing-entire-households-coming-sick-with-covid/">Delta variant</a> and <a href="https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/07/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-sees-third-consecutive-day-of-triple-digit-cases-with-124-new-infections-as-statewide-tally-tops-39k-2/">July 4</a> parties have combined to unleash what President Joe Biden called a “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-government-and-politics-pandemics-coronavirus-pandemic-8318e3f406278f3ebf09871128cc91de">pandemic of the unvaccinated</a>”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414109/original/file-20210802-20-1o4ro5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hawaii is now seeing the same surge in cases in the past month as has the US mainland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jennifer Sinco Kelleher/AP/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This latest surge, like earlier ones, <a href="https://www.usccr.gov/files/2021/05-19-HI-SAC-COVID-19-and-Pacific-Islanders-Report.pdf">disproportionately</a> impacts Native Hawaiians and <a href="https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/oia-blog-pacific-islanders-impacted-by-covid19.pdf">Pacific Islander</a> communities living in the US by a substantial degree. </p>
<p>COVID has devastated the US-based Marshall Islands community, especially in <a href="https://asiamattersforamerica.org/articles/arkansas-marshallese-group-receives-25-000-grant-from-tyson-foods">Arkansas</a>, so alarming health officials they <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/20_0407.htm">investigated</a> it in 2020. </p>
<p>French Polynesia has grappled with the costs of an operating tourist industry since early 2020. Twice, borders have been closed when cases numbers and deaths rose, and then <a href="https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/tahiti-bora-bora-reopening-tourist-covid-restrictions">reopened</a>. Now President <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/447216/french-polynesia-president-calls-for-compulsory-covid-vaccination">Edouard Fritch</a> is calling for compulsory vaccinations. </p>
<p>In New Caledonia, COVID has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/445313/new-caledonia-tension-simmers-over-referendum-date">complicated</a> a fractious political situation as it heads towards its <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/new-caledonia-s-third-referendum-and-what-happens-day-after">final referendum</a> on independence from France in December. In February 2021, a budget crisis exacerbated by COVID’s economic impact led to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-03/new-caledonia-government-collapses-after-flnks-resignation/13115406">collapse of the government</a>. In July, the territory elected its <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/446482/new-caledonia-elects-first-pro-independence-kanak-president">first Kanak pro-independence leader</a> in 40 years, increasing the likelihood of a vote to break with France. </p>
<p>COVID has also added complications to the protracted political crisis in Samoa that ended on July 26. Closed borders prevented non-resident voters returning to cast ballots in the April 9 election that saw Fiame Naomi Mata’afa become prime minister.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/samoas-first-female-leader-has-made-history-now-she-faces-a-challenging-future-at-home-and-abroad-165083">Samoa’s first female leader has made history — now she faces a challenging future at home and abroad</a>
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<p>Samoa has seen the same economic and social stresses due to COVID as elsewhere in the region. Many saw the <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/asa45/2474/2020/en/">introduction</a> and extension of emergency powers by the now-defeated government (despite having <a href="https://covid19.who.int/table">only one case and no deaths</a>) as another move towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-a-veneer-of-democracy-samoa-is-sliding-into-autocracy-160701">autocracy</a>. The political crisis has been a drag on all Samoan government functions, not least a sluggish <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/446565/samoa-to-receive-10-000-vaccine-doses">vaccine rollout</a>. </p>
<h2>In another disaster, COVID pushes climate change to the backburner</h2>
<p>Every Pacific nation faces its own challenges due to COVID. The region also has shared ones. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/09/pacific-islands-forum-in-crisis-as-one-third-of-member-nations-quit">The Pacific Islands Forum</a> lost one-third of its members in February 2021 in part because meetings were held virtually. The fracturing of this regional body comes at a bad moment, not least in the fight against climate change. </p>
<p>Until COVID, this was the immediate existential crisis facing the region. Now activist worry <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2020/08/15/how-covid-19-has-undermined-climate-change-initiatives-in-the-pacific/">climate change initiatives</a> have stalled at the long-term peril of the region. As the Federated States of Micronesia president has argued, “<a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2020/08/15/how-covid-19-has-undermined-climate-change-initiatives-in-the-pacific/">economies can die and be revived but human beings cannot</a>”. Whether this also applies to the planet remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia A. O'Brien receives funding from the Australian Research Council and New Zealand's JD Stout Trust.</span></em></p>Having been protected by geography early in the pandemic, Pacific nations are now battling serious outbreaks and struggling to get their people vaccinated.Patricia A. O'Brien, Visiting Fellow, School of History, Australian National University, and Adjunct Professor, Asian Studies Program, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589632021-04-30T02:27:30Z2021-04-30T02:27:30ZThe Pacific went a year without COVID. Now, it’s all under threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397974/original/file-20210430-21-pp0hv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=171%2C150%2C4593%2C2936&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fiji's capital went into lockdown after the Indian variant of the coronavirus leaked out of a quarantine facility.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by LEON LORD/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most of the last year, the Pacific Islands have been remarkably isolated from the devastating effects of the COVID crisis. By walling themselves off early from the outside world, most Pacific nations remain completely COVID free. </p>
<p>Historians will look back on this as a remarkable achievement by Pacific nations, and a great credit to the swift actions taken by their leaders.</p>
<p>While isolation has proven itself to be an effective preventative strategy, it is not a perfect one. Border closures have taken an <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/avoiding-lost-decade-pacific">severe toll</a> on these nations’ fledgling economies.</p>
<p>And even the most robust border and quarantine control systems can break down. In the Pacific, the cracks are now starting to show.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-papua-new-guinea-really-is-part-of-australias-family-wed-do-well-to-remember-our-shared-history-159528">If Papua New Guinea really is part of Australia's 'family', we'd do well to remember our shared history</a>
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<h2>Localised outbreaks and lockdowns</h2>
<p>The most obvious case is in Papua New Guinea, where caseloads started <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-australia-papua-new-guinea-covid19-outbreak-critical/6fce9556-4bc4-42c7-a8dd-1f26af097377">surging</a> <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/coronavirus-png-precipice-and-it-needs-urgent-intervention">exponentially</a> two months ago. </p>
<p>With a porous land border with Indonesia and weak quarantine controls, it’s remarkable the virus did not get out of control sooner. However, it is now running unchecked in the capital, Port Moresby, and has spread to every province in the country. </p>
<p>The health system came very close to complete breakdown in March, and despite hopeful signs of case numbers stabilising in the capital (now at a much higher level), the country remains in <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-australia-papua-new-guinea-covid19-outbreak-critical/6fce9556-4bc4-42c7-a8dd-1f26af097377">dire need</a> of further assistance.</p>
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<p>Fiji was the most successful nation in the region in containing community transmission a year ago. It, too, is now showing cracks in the armour. </p>
<p>In a familiar story, a soldier working at a quarantine facility <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-29/fiji-soldiers-coronavirus-covid19-quarantine-update/100100050">caught</a> the virus from a traveller who had recently returned from India. Now identified as the new and extremely infectious Indian strain, it has quickly spread.</p>
<p>Much of the country’s main island of Viti Levu is in lockdown as contact tracing is conducted. While Fiji is the most capable country in the region to handle an outbreak, it also comes at a terrible time for the tourism-dependent nation, which is desperate to reopen to the Australian and New Zealand markets.</p>
<p>Over in Vanuatu, the dead body of a Filipino sailor from a visiting cargo vessel that <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/coronavirus-covid19-vanuatu-fiji-lockdowns-dead-body-beach/100080846">washed ashore</a> on April 11 tested positive for the virus. The vessel is <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2021/04/28/seven-covid-cases-on-ship-off-queensland-coast/">now in Australian waters</a>, with all but one of the 12 sailors on board testing positive for COVID-19.</p>
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<h2>Getting vaccines is step one</h2>
<p>The solution to the Pacific’s imperfect isolation strategy is the same as Australia’s - vaccines.</p>
<p>Given the enormous global demand for vaccines, and the small size and limited bargaining power of Pacific Island nations, there has been a very real threat they would be left at the back of the queue in the vaccine scramble. </p>
<p>However, assertive work by donor nations like Australia and New Zealand, combined with access to the World Health Organisation-led global COVAX facility, has so far meant Pacific nations are not being left out in the cold.</p>
<p>The North Pacific nations of Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, and Palau are well on their way to being fully vaccinated courtesy of the United States’ <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-05/palau-may-become-first-majority-vaccinated-covid-19-coronavirus/13030012">Operation Warp Speed</a> program. </p>
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<p>Initial batches of between 4,800-132,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccines have also been delivered to Fiji, Nauru, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Tuvalu via the <a href="https://www.gavi.org/covax-vaccine-roll-out">COVAX initiative</a>.</p>
<p>Australia sent an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-17/covid-papua-new-guinea-vaccination-australia-scott-morrison/13255158">emergency batch of 8,000 vaccine doses</a> to PNG in March, and is now sending <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/thousands-of-astrazeneca-doses-head-for-pacific-nations-amid-scramble-to-overhaul-australia-s-vaccine-rollout">10,000 locally produced AstraZeneca doses</a> to the region each week. This number is likely to climb as production ramps up and the appetite for AstraZeneca wanes at home. </p>
<p>China is also poised to do its part, offering <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/china-winning-pacific-vaccine-diplomacy-war/news-story/dc44360538370bf40cf216a7d3ffa1db">200,000 Sinopharm vaccines</a> to PNG and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/sols-china-covax/13300742">50,000 to Solomon Islands</a>. </p>
<p>Both PNG and the Solomon Islands are adamant that they will not roll out the vaccine until it receives approval by the WHO, but the presence of Chinese vaccines ups the stakes for the vaccine diplomacy battle now underway in the Pacific.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-wants-to-be-a-friend-to-the-pacific-but-so-far-it-has-failed-to-match-australias-covid-19-response-144911">China wants to be a friend to the Pacific, but so far, it has failed to match Australia's COVID-19 response</a>
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<h2>Logistics are now the big challenge</h2>
<p>Just two months ago, the worry for most Pacific nations was getting hold of vaccines. For many, the challenge has now quickly morphed to a larger, and much more challenging, question — how to roll them out. </p>
<p>There are enormous challenges involved with an effective rollout campaign in many countries, especially those with many islands like Kiribati or Solomon Islands or with large populations in remote communities spread across mountains and islands, like PNG. </p>
<p>Pacific leaders and health professionals also face widespread <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/facebook-launches-covid-19-misinformation-campaign-in-pacific/13305526">misinformation</a> about vaccines, cultural stigma (many Pacific nations have never run an adult vaccination campaign), and logistical challenges related to cold chain storage and their already-stretched health systems. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-no-longer-ignore-the-threats-facing-the-pacific-we-need-to-support-more-migration-to-australia-148530">We can no longer ignore the threats facing the Pacific — we need to support more migration to Australia</a>
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<p>Illustrating this point, of the 8,000 doses Australia provided to PNG more than a month ago, <a href="https://covid19.info.gov.pg/files/Situation%20Report/PNG%20COVID-19%20Health%20Situation%20Report%2070%20DRAFT%20FINAL.pdf">only 2,900</a> have been administered. While some nations, like Fiji, have quickly run through their allotted COVAX vaccines, others, such as PNG, run the risk of vaccines expiring before they get into people’s arms.</p>
<p>It will take a much more significant and coordinated effort from Pacific nations, and all of their donor counterparts, to effectively vaccinate the region. </p>
<p>A massive logistics campaign tailored to the needs of each nation must now get underway. NGOs, churches, and the private sector should all be expected to do their part. Alongside this, the Pacific nations need smart and widespread information campaigns to promote the efficacy and importance of the vaccines and help overcome misinformation and stigma.</p>
<p>If more concerted effort is not applied to getting needles into Pacific Islanders’ arms, then at best these countries will be left behind as other economies open up to one another, and at worst quarantine systems will fail and the virus itself will overwhelm their vulnerable systems.</p>
<p>The Pacific region has done extremely well in combating the COVID crisis to date. Let’s not stop now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Pryke is director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute. The institute receives grant funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to support its work on the Pacific.</span></em></p>Securing vaccines was only part of the battle — the Pacific now has to overcome misinformation, stigma and sheer geography to vaccinate its people.Jonathan Pryke, Director, Pacific Islands Program, Lowy Institute for International Policy; Centre Associate at the Development Policy Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1567982021-03-18T19:05:49Z2021-03-18T19:05:49ZAustralia wants to send 1 million vaccine doses to PNG – but without reliable electricity, how will they be kept cold?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390293/original/file-20210318-21-1roy7jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C284%2C4099%2C2161&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ilya Gridneff/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s nearest neighbour, Papua New Guinea, is battling an unfolding COVID crisis. The Morrison government is urgently <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-sends-8-000-vaccine-doses-to-help-papua-new-guineas-pandemic-crisis-157310">deploying 8,000 vaccine doses</a> to the nation’s health workers – but poor electricity access means there are serious questions over PNG’s broader vaccine roll-out.</p>
<p>Vaccine supplies must be stored at cold or ultra-cold temperatures along the supply chain. Importantly, when the vaccines reach hospitals and medical centres in PNG, stable electricity will be needed to power refrigerators to store the doses before they’re administered to patients.</p>
<p>Currently only <a href="http://pawarimkomuniti.org.pg/abou">about 13%</a> of Papua New Guinea’s eight million people have reliable access to electricity. This is not an isolated problem. In 2019, about <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections/access-to-electricity">770 million people</a> globally lived in “energy poverty”, without access to electricity – and the problem has grown worse due to COVID.</p>
<p>Australia is working to <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-to-give-png-8000-vaccines-to-fight-major-covid-19-outbreak-20210317-p57bf7.html">provide one million doses</a> for wider distribution in PNG. But the pandemic only <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00306-8/fulltext">truly ends</a> when the vaccines are rolled out globally. Countries and communities without electricity access present a major barrier to this goal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A PNG resident cooks over a fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390295/original/file-20210318-19-2gotbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Just 13% of PNG’s population has reliable electricity access.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Energy poverty matters</h2>
<p>Australia enjoys a relatively reliable electricity network, even in remote parts of the country. There are also <a href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/public-health/immunisation/cold-chain-management/vaccine-power-outage-strategies">systems in place</a> to keep vaccines cold in the event of a power outage, such as backup power.</p>
<p>But around the world, even in our Pacific neighbourhood, energy poverty is widespread and persistent. And COVID-19 has created a vicious circle for these nations. The pandemic has forced governments to shift priorities, leading to less funding for electricity infrastructure. In some countries, progress in electricity access has reversed for the first time in many years. </p>
<p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/the-covid-19-crisis-is-reversing-progress-on-energy-access-in-africa">says</a> this reversal is being worst felt in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220301433#bib104">Sub-Saharan Africa</a>. </p>
<p>There, 580 million people lack access to electricity - three quarters of the world’s total. The IEA <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020">estimates</a> this number grew by 6% in 2020.</p>
<p>It cites Uganda, where public subsidies for an electricity access program have been put on hold, and South Africa where funds to expand rural electrification were redirected to health and welfare programs.</p>
<p>PNG wants 70% of the country connected to electricity by 2030. This will require large scale investment in new generation capacity, and transmission and distribution lines to connect people to the grid. But the nation has long suffered <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/png-covid19-costs-economic-stress">economic instability</a>, and the pandemic has only added to this. </p>
<p>Making matters worse, the true extent and trajectory of COVID-19 may be uncertain in nations suffering energy poverty. For example, there is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122032172X">growing evidence</a> of under-testing in Africa and <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-to-give-png-8000-vaccines-to-fight-major-covid-19-outbreak-20210317-p57bf7.html">under-reporting</a> of cases and deaths in PNG. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-dam-has-been-breached-a-covid-crisis-on-our-doorstep-shows-how-little-we-pay-attention-to-png-157323">'A dam has been breached': a COVID crisis on our doorstep shows how little we pay attention to PNG</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Medical staff gather around a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390297/original/file-20210318-17-knekp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The COVID threat in some developing nations is under-reported.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Farah Abdi Warsameh/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Vaccine refrigeration is key</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.seforall.org/news/sustainable-cold-chains-needed-for-equitable-covid-19-vaccine-distribution">experts have noted</a>, efforts to end the pandemic have largely focused on developing, testing and manufacturing an effective vaccine. Less attention has been paid to distributing it rapidly at scale.</p>
<p>There are exceptions. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00306-8/fulltext">The Lancet</a> has identified local deployment as one of four key dimensions for an effective global vaccination roll-out.</p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html">390 million vaccine doses</a> have already been administered, mostly in high- and middle-income countries with effective financial and planning resources.</p>
<p>But in countries where electricity access is poor, refrigeration of vaccines during transport and storage may prove very difficult. Some countries may not be able to vaccinate large parts of their population. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389442/original/file-20210314-16-166lwih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Country-level vaccine distribution - colour intensity indicates doses per capita.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WHO Coronavirus Dashboard</span></span>
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<p>The Pfizer vaccine must be frozen at <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-pfizer-covid-vaccine-gets-from-the-freezer-into-your-arm-155453">around -70°C</a>. The AstraZeneca vaccine must be kept at between <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/vaccine/Pages/az-refrigerator-to-administration.aspx">2°C and 8°C</a>. </p>
<p>Ultra-cold supply chains were established for the deployment of the Ebola vaccine in Africa in 2013–14. However, the scale required for COVID is enormous, and would be <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00306-8/fulltext">prohibitively expensive</a>. </p>
<p>As reported in the Lancet, as of 2018, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00306-8/fulltext">74 of 194</a> member states of the World Health Organisation had no adult vaccination program for any disease. Fewer than 11% of countries in Africa and South Asia reported having such a program. This was thought to be partly due to a lack of systems for storage and delivery.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, a <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/">recent study</a> suggested more than 85 less-developed countries will not have widespread access to COVID vaccines until 2023. </p>
<p>Many are relying on the World Health Organisation’s <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax">COVAX initiative</a>, which aims to secure six billion doses of vaccine for less developed countries. Similarly, the Quad regional grouping – Australia, the US, Japan, and India – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/13/australia-commits-100m-to-covid-vaccine-deal-at-quad-meeting">recently pledged</a> to boost vaccine production and distribution for Asian and Pacific island countries.</p>
<p>But without access to reliable electricity, the roll-out of these vaccines will be hampered. This is particularly an issue in countries with remote and dispersed populations. There, keeping the vaccine cold over the “last mile” of distribution and storage may prove impossible.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-mrna-vaccines-from-pfizer-and-moderna-work-why-theyre-a-breakthrough-and-why-they-need-to-be-kept-so-cold-150238">How mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna work, why they're a breakthrough and why they need to be kept so cold</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Somalian woman receives vaccine dose" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390296/original/file-20210318-19-1i94rsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many poor nations are relying on the World Health Organisation to access vaccines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Farah Abdi Warsameh/AP</span></span>
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<h2>Energy access is key to ending the pandemic</h2>
<p>Communities experiencing energy poverty, such as in PNG, face other setbacks when it comes to managing the pandemic. Those populations are more likely to use solid fuels, such as wood, for cooking. This leads to indoor air pollution which can cause <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air-pollution-and-health">severe respiratory illnesses</a> and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/rmv.2146">more severe</a> COVID-19 symptoms.</p>
<p>Without electricity access, such communities are unlikely to provide appropriate COVID-19 health responses, leading to a higher burden of disease.</p>
<p>In PNG, an “<a href="https://www.aiffp.gov.au/news/papua-new-guinea-electrification-partnership">Electrification Partnership</a>”, of which Australia is a key partner, appears on track. For instance, at a virtual summit at the height of the pandemic last August, <a href="https://www.aiffp.gov.au/news/aiffp-financing-markham-valley-solar-farm">Australia committed</a> to financing a large-scale solar plant in Morobe Province. It would be one of the largest solar plants in the Pacific. </p>
<p>But as immunisation emerges as the world’s primary weapon to combat COVID-19, much more work is needed to improve electricity access to those who desperately need it. Indeed, ending the global pandemic may demand it. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-catastrophe-looms-with-pngs-covid-crisis-australia-needs-to-respond-urgently-156953">A catastrophe looms with PNG's COVID crisis. Australia needs to respond urgently</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As immunisation emerges as the world’s primary weapon to combat COVID-19, much more work is needed to improve electricity access so vaccines can be refrigerated.Tony Heynen, Program Coordinator, Sustainable Energy, The University of QueenslandPaul Lant, Professor of Chemical Engineering, The University of QueenslandVigya Sharma, Senior Research Fellow, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1573232021-03-18T01:46:41Z2021-03-18T01:46:41Z‘A dam has been breached’: a COVID crisis on our doorstep shows how little we pay attention to PNG<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390273/original/file-20210318-15-15eex19.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=127%2C52%2C4618%2C3173&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Until this week, it did not occur to most Australians to ask themselves how our nearest neighbours in Papua New Guinea were faring with coronavirus. </p>
<p>Our minds and screens have been full with what is happening at home and in countries like the United States and United Kingdom. In this and other ways, the current crisis on our doorstep highlights some perennial themes in the relationship between Australia and PNG.</p>
<p>Even for those who were paying attention, the apparently sudden spike in cases has come as a surprise. It had been difficult since the start of the pandemic to work out the real extent of COVID’s spread in PNG, given low testing rates and the inaccessibility of so much of the country. </p>
<p>But antibody analysis and testing of resource industry workforces employed by Australian and other international companies suggested that while the virus was present throughout the country, Papua New Guineans <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/papua-new-guinea">didn’t seem to be dying</a> in the way that people in other countries were. </p>
<p>The apparently low rates of serious illness and death seemed to reflect the fact that three-quarters of the population is <a href="https://www.pg.undp.org/content/papua_new_guinea/en/home/countryinfo.html">under the age of 35</a>, and average life expectancy is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/papua-new-guinea">only 64</a>. Just a small proportion of the country’s inhabitants seemed to be in the main risk category — very elderly people. </p>
<p>But now it’s like a dam has been breached. Health facilities are close to being overwhelmed in Port Moresby, medical staff are being struck down and 50% of one batch of PNG swabs tested in Brisbane last week <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-has-major-concerns-about-covid-spread-from-png-20210315-p57asn.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed">were positive</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-catastrophe-looms-with-pngs-covid-crisis-australia-needs-to-respond-urgently-156953">A catastrophe looms with PNG's COVID crisis. Australia needs to respond urgently</a>
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<h2>Australians working in PNG</h2>
<p>The crisis brings to mind a paradox in the Australia-PNG relationship. Despite our “blind spot” when it comes to our northern neighbour, there are thousands of Australians who have very strong PNG connections. </p>
<p>About 20,000 Australians call PNG home. They are heavily engaged in work there as teachers, miners, diplomats, aid workers and government advisers. </p>
<p>These people have known for some time how the pandemic has aggravated existing challenges in the country. It has strained the country’s fragile health system, put a squeeze on people’s incomes and encouraged a growing debt problem. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/destitution-on-australias-hardening-border-with-png-and-the-need-for-a-better-aid-strategy-135038">Destitution on Australia's hardening border with PNG – and the need for a better aid strategy</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Many Australians, too, have been <a href="https://www.ktf.ngo/news/2020/6/24/talking-covid-19-with-ceo-gen-nelson">working on COVID’s front line</a> there.</p>
<p>While the rest of us have been hunkered down safely behind closed borders, Australian women and men working in the resource industry have continued to come and go – doing quarantine at both ends, spending longer periods away from home and family. </p>
<p>They are managers and technical specialists, and they have been working with their PNG colleagues to implement world-class testing and treatment protocols in their mines and LNG production sites. This has helped keep thousands employed and some revenue flowing to the cash-strapped nation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390274/original/file-20210318-21-ttzz71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Kokoda Foundation conducting COVID awareness training in PNG.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The better companies have also been working “outside the gate” to help local authorities <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6769552049848758273/">manage the impact of the pandemic on their communities</a> and combat widespread misinformation about the disease and vaccinations that will come.</p>
<p>The tough new restrictions on travel between Australia and PNG are undoubtedly a prudent move, but this has left many Australian resource industry workers and others feeling stranded. </p>
<p>Resource companies operating in PNG, from Newcrest to Oilsearch, need to brief the Australian health authorities on the stringent protocols they are enacting for their workers when they are in PNG. These arrangements, they argue, make their employees a safer bet to travel for work than Australian citizens coming home from many other parts of the world. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1372156829199859715"}"></div></p>
<h2>Helping PNG is in both our interests</h2>
<p>In the past week, mainstream Australian media have finally found a reason to draw broader national attention to what is happening next door. </p>
<p>Self-interest is an important motivator of public attention, and there is now legitimate concern about the disease spreading across the Torres Strait into northern Australia. </p>
<p>We don’t know how bad the problem is in PNG’s western province, less than four kilometres from Queensland’s northernmost islands. But we do know that several positive cases had led the Ok Tedi mine there to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/png-sols-covid-lockdown-concern-ok-tedi/13219034">cease charter flights</a> to Cairns well before the Australian government suspended travel from PNG yesterday.</p>
<p>We’ve seen a range of official responses from the Australian authorities over the past few days. </p>
<p>Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced the vulnerable Torres Strait communities are being prioritised for vaccinations. Canberra has moved to bring forward its vaccination support to PNG, contributing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-sends-8-000-vaccine-doses-to-help-papua-new-guineas-pandemic-crisis-157310">8,000 doses immediately</a> to protect frontline workers and asking the European Union to divert one million of its AstraZeneca order to PNG. </p>
<p>Some will criticise all this as a knee-jerk response. But to be fair, it builds on a substantial <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/crisis-hub/papua-new-guinea-covid-19-response">existing program of Australian COVID-related support to PNG</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-push-into-png-has-been-surprisingly-slow-and-ineffective-why-has-beijing-found-the-going-so-tough-140073">China's push into PNG has been surprisingly slow and ineffective. Why has Beijing found the going so tough?</a>
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<p>And I know from my own time representing Australia as the high commissioner in PNG that the pace of assistance is often determined by the host government. PNG is a sovereign country, and they need to request help.</p>
<p>There are also those who will accuse Australia of acting purely in its own self-interest. Any such commentary reflects another basic and longstanding misunderstanding of how Australian and PNG interests intersect. </p>
<p>Our neighbour’s stability and prosperity is in our interests. Surely, there can be no better example of this than the current crisis: what is good for PNG is also good for Australia. </p>
<p>A better reflection of the self-interest at play is how most of us, in the general public, have only just realised there’s a problem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Kemish is a former Australian High Commissioner to Papua New Guinea. He represents the Global Partnership for Education in Australia, which promotes basic education in lower income countries including PNG. He chairs the Kokoda Track Foundation, which receives some support from the Australian Government, and his strategic advisory business supports a range of clients including resource companies in PNG. He is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Queensland and a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute of International Affairs.</span></em></p>Our neighbour’s stability and prosperity is in our interests. Surely, there can be no better example of this than the current crisis: what is good for PNG is also good for Australia.Ian Kemish AM, Former Ambassador and Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1520092020-12-16T02:13:22Z2020-12-16T02:13:22Z‘We didn’t have money or enough food’: how COVID-19 affected Papua New Guinean fishing families<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375247/original/file-20201215-17-101l7pr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C25%2C1756%2C952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Miller</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In March 2020, Papua New Guinea went into a state of emergency to contain the spread of COVID-19. For Ahus Island — a small atoll community of around 600 people off the north coast of Manus Island — the state of emergency had far-reaching consequences. </p>
<p>In July and August, we interviewed Ahus islanders about their experience of COVID-19, and what they did to cope. </p>
<p>Their <a href="https://www.coralcoe.org.au/blog/lived-experiences-of-covid-19-impacts-on-an-atoll-island-community-papua-new-guinea-2020">stories</a> from the first six months of COVID-19 offer insight into the impacts of the pandemic on small-scale fishing communities and isolated islands. </p>
<p>As the new normal unfolds, the <a href="https://www.worldfishcenter.org/pages/covid-19/">COVID-19 pandemic will continue to reverberate across fishing communities</a>. The stories from Ahus island reflect the experiences of other <a href="https://lmmanetwork.org/resources/covid/">fishing communities across the Pacific</a>. Other <a href="https://lmmanetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/LMMA-Network-PNGCLMA-WCS-PNG.-Covid-Update-4-PNG-16.07.2020.pdf">Papua New Guinean coastal communities</a> struggled with food shortages, and needed external support for basic foods and services. Getting cut-off from markets and food can affect people’s livelihoods and well being in unforeseen ways.</p>
<p>Globally, there is a need to coordinate short and long-term responses to support small-scale fisheries, especially across the <a href="https://aciar.gov.au/publication/covid-19-and-food-systems">Indo-Pacific, where food insecurity is already a concern</a>. </p>
<h2>Fishing pressure on island’s reefs decreased, but at the cost of people’s livelihoods</h2>
<p>In Ahus, most people earn a livelihood selling fish — almost no food is grown on the island itself, and there are almost no other jobs. </p>
<p>During the state of emergency, fishers and fish sellers struggled to get to markets and to sell fish, which put stress on fishing families. Normally, fishers sell fish at the town market, a 40-minute boat ride from the island. During the state of emergency, the market was deserted and there was almost no demand for fish. With no customers, people stopped earning income and were unable to buy food:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We found it hard because you go to the market and there’s not one person who’ll buy fish from you.</p>
<p>If you have money, you get food, if you don’t have money you can’t get food. And the way we get money is from the sea alone.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Passenger restrictions meant fewer passengers could get to town. And trips took three times as long because boat owners switched to smaller motors to save petrol. </p>
<p>One man explained: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For us on this island, it is hard … We travel by sea. We go by boat. Now, if only limited people can get on a boat, then that affects us.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The island’s market also closed briefly at the beginning of the pandemic, and travel to the mainland was restricted, leaving some people with no way to access food. Some people secretly bartered fish with relatives on the mainland, but others had to wait for markets to reopen.</p>
<p>When they did reopen, there was limited cash in the community, and many returned to a traditional system of bartering fish for vegetables.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People gather at community markets on tropical atoll island" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/375258/original/file-20201215-19-fatqzc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People gather at the local island market. Normally, fishers sell fish at the town market, a 40 minute boat ride from Ahus island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo credit: Dean Miller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The combination of disruptions of markets and transport restrictions impacted fishing. People explained that it was hard to get fuel from town to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolling_(fishing)#:%7E:text=Trolling%20is%20a%20method%20of,when%20fishing%20from%20a%20jetty.">troll</a> for ocean fish. Others fished less because they were afraid to leave the house for too long. </p>
<p>The town hospital was only accepting emergency patients. One woman said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>So I told our family, you can’t go to the sea, because if you get sick then how can we go to the hospital? So during that time no one went fishing, and we didn’t have money or enough food.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fishing pressure on island’s reefs decreased, but at the cost of people’s livelihoods.</p>
<h2>‘Little, little for each child and each adult’</h2>
<p>To cope with lack of income and difficulty getting food, most households started reducing what they ate. One woman said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Before, we’d all eat rice often. Not now. I’ve cooked sago over and over, and everyone complains … but there’s nothing else.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Many families rationed food. As one person said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There was limited food … we’d serve just a little, little for each child and each adult. It doesn’t matter if you’re full up or only just full, that was your share.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Restricting food comes with risk. Diets of fish, sago and rice alone don’t contain enough essential nutrients to maintain health. Children’s physical and mental development can be permanently impaired if they are undernourished. </p>
<p>As families struggled to support themselves, some stopped sharing and helping others in the community. Several people mentioned that they’d received government support during past emergencies in the form of food and basic services. Others had heard other provinces were receiving support and were frustrated that their community had been left out. </p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>Since these interviews, we have spoken again with people in the community. Their situation has improved since the state of emergency lifted. </p>
<p>The sea cucumber season opened in September, bringing a quick cash injection to the community. Markets have returned to business as usual, food is accessible and people have started sharing again. </p>
<p>But the last year has shown many communities are ill-prepared for the economic disruption that comes with a pandemic. Pandemic responses that do not account for impacts on food and nutrition security may lead to non-compliance and foster distrust in the legitimacy of future directives.</p>
<p>Decision-makers, locally and globally, must balance management of pandemics with a recognition that fish and fishing communities are essential to local well being.</p>
<p>Our research report can be found <a href="https://www.coralcoe.org.au/blog/lived-experiences-of-covid-19-impacts-on-an-atoll-island-community-papua-new-guinea-2020">here</a>. </p>
<p><em>Wilda Hungito, a PNG-based private research consultant and co-author on the report, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqueline Lau is jointly employed by WorldFish and the ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef studies at JCU.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Sutcliffe is jointly employed by WorldFish and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef studies at JCU.</span></em></p>Decision-makers, locally and globally, must balance management of pandemics with a recognition that fish and fishing communities are essential to local well being.Jacqueline Lau, Research fellow, James Cook UniversitySarah Ruth Sutcliffe, Marine Social Sciences PhD candidate, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1350382020-04-12T20:06:56Z2020-04-12T20:06:56ZDestitution on Australia’s hardening border with PNG – and the need for a better aid strategy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326678/original/file-20200408-150164-1b2qtqv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Visiting women from the South Fly selling their crafts in an informal market on Boigu Island in the Torres Strait.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Less than four kilometres from Australia’s northernmost islands in the Torres Strait lies the South Fly District of Papua New Guinea.</p>
<p>If you’ve ever heard anything about this borderland region – wedged between Australia, Indonesia and the Fly River in southern PNG – it’s likely about protecting Australia from disease, illegal migration, drugs and gun smuggling. </p>
<p>However, the story of the South Fly District is much more complex. It is a story of chronic underdevelopment and growing frustration with a border management regime that favours some PNG nationals over others and ever-tightening restrictions on trade across the Australian border. </p>
<p>Over the past four years, researchers from the University of Queensland visited 35 South Fly villages and five Torres Strait islands to better understand the relationship between the two sides of the border. The findings were just released as a book, <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/too-close-to-ignore-paperback-softback">Too Close to Ignore: Australia’s Borderland with Papua New Guinea and Indonesia</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326677/original/file-20200408-83495-tr8ncu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=641&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of the South Fly District in southern PNG and neighbouring Torres Strait Islands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Extreme poverty on the PNG side</h2>
<p>The World Bank has set the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/global-poverty-line-faq">international poverty line</a> at A$2.70 per person per day, but the median income in South Fly villages is less than half of this. Worse still, basic goods like flour and sugar are twice what people pay in remote areas of Australia, and the cost of fuel is A$3–4 per litre. </p>
<p>PNG is often described as having a <a href="https://www.businessadvantagepng.com/papua-new-guinea-economic-paradox/">dual economy</a>, with mining and other foreign investment driving the main economy with money, and subsistence gardening underpinning the other. Subsistence activities (growing only what is needed for survival) remain essential in rural areas where <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/png/overview#1">more than 80% of people live</a>.</p>
<p>But cash is also desperately needed for basic food items, health services and schooling. People are constantly looking for markets, but they face formidable obstacles due to the remoteness of the region and high transportation costs.</p>
<p>Now, the hardening of the Australian border is proving to be another barrier, too.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326679/original/file-20200408-165795-6yfu6p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A South Fly Village house with an improvised door (scavenged from the Torres Strait).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hardening of the border</h2>
<p>To stem any threat of coronavirus, cross-border travel with the exception of medical emergencies <a href="http://tsirc.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/TS%20LDMG%20Media%20Release%20-%20COVID-19.pdf">has been banned since mid-February</a>, more than a month before <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/412291/png-to-close-borders-after-confirmation-of-first-covid-19-case">PNG’s first confirmed case</a>.</p>
<p>But even before then, a complex border management system was fuelling frustrations. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/torres-strait/Pages/the-torres-strait-treaty">Torres Strait Treaty</a>, residents of 14 nominated “treaty” villages in PNG have been allowed to cross the border, so long as they have a pass signed by a Torres Strait Island councillor.</p>
<p>Passage is limited to traditional purposes only, which is interpreted by Australian authorities to exclude commercial trade. South Fly residents, however, still seek to barter across the border for cash and goods. This trade is critical to their economic survival. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/everything-but-china-is-on-the-table-during-png-prime-ministers-visit-120754">Everything but China is on the table during PNG prime minister's visit</a>
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<p>For PNG residents, the Australian government approach to border management relies on a hierarchy of haves and have-nots — those villages with treaty status, and those without. </p>
<p>As non-treaty villages can’t cross the border, they sell their goods to treaty villages, who then on-sell them into the Torres Strait. The treaty villages guard their privileges, informally helping to manage the border.</p>
<p>But the treaty villages themselves are now also struggling to trade, as the Australian Border Force (ABF) and Torres Strait Island councillors have, in recent years, asserted more control over the border. </p>
<p>By not issuing passes, the councillors limit the numbers of days for visitors and even issue total bans to entire villages. They do so to protect their limited resources during times of water shortages, to prevent the spread of infectious diseases or viruses (like COVID-19), or as punishment for overstaying on previous visits, fighting or other breaches. </p>
<p>The Australian government relies on the councillors to be informal frontline defenders of the border. ABF officers have also imposed harsh restrictions on those who do manage to cross, including limits on access to ATMs for PNG visitors trying to collect remittances from extended families. </p>
<p>PNG visitors are no longer able to sell their goods or avail themselves of medical services to the extent that they once did, either. </p>
<h2>Border management trumping aid assistance</h2>
<p>This system has some kind of logic for border control, but it makes no sense when it comes to other issues, like health. </p>
<p>Australian aid assistance in the South Fly District is largely limited to the capital Daru and the 14 treaty villages. In these regions, Australia has funded a world-class response to tuberculosis, including a hospital in Daru and health centre in Mabuduan, a treaty village.</p>
<p>The primary health system in the rest of the district, meanwhile, is grossly understaffed and under-resourced. People from South Fly villages often travel to health clinics on the outer Torres Strait Islands, where clinicians adopt a humanitarian position for medical emergencies. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-chauka-bird-and-morality-on-our-manus-island-home-90107">Friday essay: the Chauka bird and morality on our Manus Island home</a>
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<p>If patients have TB, they are sent back for treatment at the Daru hospital. But the health system’s transport is extremely limited, and most PNG residents can’t afford the exorbitant cost of fuel for private dinghies. </p>
<p>When they can raise the money to travel to Daru, they are often accompanied by family members and stay in squalid, overcrowded housing, where they run the risk of further spreading or catching TB. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326681/original/file-20200408-86219-1quq4ar.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">One of the Daru settlements where many visitors from South Fly Villages stay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Normalise aid spending for greater impact</h2>
<p>Despite the long history of reciprocal relationships between the South Fly and Torres Strait, a hardening border is worsening destitution and on the PNG side and exacerbating the security threat to Australia. </p>
<p>And as the Australian border hardens, the Indonesian border beckons, where trade in mostly dried fish products has been long established. Compared to the Australian border, the PNG-Indonesia border is relatively porous, and illegal border crossings and overfishing are pervasive.</p>
<p>Allowing commercial trade across the PNG–Australian border would certainly help. For example, the crab trade has been dominated by Chinese store owners in Daru, who buy up everything until stocks are depleted to sell onward to Singapore.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/crisis-what-crisis-a-new-prime-minister-in-png-might-not-signal-meaningful-change-for-its-citizens-117841">Crisis? What crisis? A new prime minister in PNG might not signal meaningful change for its citizens</a>
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<p>Building a crab fishery in the South Fly could be a profitable enterprise for Torres Strait Island businesses, with live exports sold to restaurants in Australia, and better prices paid to the PNG women who traditionally catch them. Australian quarantine officers in the Torres Strait Islands could control catch size. </p>
<p>Expanding the bilateral aid program to benefit all the villages in the district, not just treaty villages would also help. </p>
<p>The current money needs to be dispersed more evenly for greater impact, according to the principles of aid effectiveness and population health, and not play “second fiddle” to border management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Moran receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Australia has been tightening the border between PNG and the Torres Strait Islands in recent years, exacerbating poverty and the spread of tuberculosis in villages that depend on cross-border trade.Mark Moran, Professor of Development Effectiveness, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1207542019-07-23T05:04:12Z2019-07-23T05:04:12ZEverything but China is on the table during PNG prime minister’s visit<p>Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape is visiting Australia this week, his first overseas trip since he was elevated to that office in June this year. And it’s the first time Scott Morrison has hosted an international leader in Australia since he was re-elected as prime minister in May.</p>
<p>This week’s visit has been positioned as the first of what will be an annual meeting between the leaders. It indicates a stepped up <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-prime-minister-papua-new-guinea">relationship</a>, one that adds to Morrison’s growing focus on building personal relationships throughout the region: in Vanuatu, Fiji and <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/transcends-all-that-morrison-s-solomon-islands-visit-not-just-about-china-us-tensions">Solomon Islands</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-morrison-showed-up-in-the-pacific-but-what-did-he-actually-achieve-109792">Yes, Morrison 'showed up' in the Pacific, but what did he actually achieve?</a>
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<p>There are many things the two leaders have to discuss, from a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/18/america-to-partner-with-australia-to-develop-naval-base-on-manus-island">naval base development</a> to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/manus-governor-slams-australia-over-naval-base-plans/10515910">asylum seekers</a> on Manus Island. But on arrival, Marape was clear that he did not plan to discuss his country’s relationship with China. </p>
<p>Marape restated PNG’s overall position on foreign policy: that of being “friends to all and enemies to none”. But that didn’t prevent the Australian media asking Marape questions about China during a joint press conference on Monday. </p>
<p>One journalist asked if Marape was concerned about potential governance problems associated with increased Chinese investment in his country. His response could not have been more straightforward:</p>
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<p>Every businessman and woman is welcome in our country, and the Chinese investors will not receive any special treatment and preference, just like Australian investors will not receive any special favour or treatment.</p>
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<p>Many in the Australian media and policy community would like to know much more about the relationship between PNG and China, as they wonder how it will affect Australia’s influence with their nearest neighbour.</p>
<h2>Belt and Road Initiative</h2>
<p>As we have seen elsewhere in the region, the relationship between PNG and China has become more developed in recent years. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1153091613305888768"}"></div></p>
<p>Under the previous PNG prime minister, Peter O'Neill, PNG became the second Pacific Islands nation to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/looking-north-png-signs-on-to-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-20180621-p4zmyv.html">sign on to the Belt and Road Initiative</a> in June 2018. </p>
<p>O'Neill participated in the Belt and Road Initiate Forum earlier this year, and indicated that he foresaw PNG becoming even more involved in projects for the global infrastructure and trade strategy.</p>
<p>O'Neill resigned in May, and it’s yet to be seen whether Marape will participate in projects for Belt and Road Initiative.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/crisis-what-crisis-a-new-prime-minister-in-png-might-not-signal-meaningful-change-for-its-citizens-117841">Crisis? What crisis? A new prime minister in PNG might not signal meaningful change for its citizens</a>
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<p>In any case, one thing Marape has made very clear during this visit to Australia is that he’s looking for opportunities to diversify the PNG economy beyond the resources sector. He is particularly focused on growing the agricultural sector, which will require additional investment in infrastructure to supply domestic and export markets adequately.</p>
<p>It’s not always easy to determine the extent of Chinese aid, investment and loans to countries like PNG. But Sarah O'Dowd, an Australian National University researcher, <a href="http://devpolicy.org/2019-Australasian-Aid-Conference/5FSarahO'Dowd.pdf">has calculated</a> that at the end of 2018, PNG owed approximate A$588 million in external debt to China. This represented 23.7% of the total external debt.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-pacific-island-nations-rising-sea-levels-are-a-bigger-security-concern-than-rising-chinese-influence-102403">For Pacific Island nations, rising sea levels are a bigger security concern than rising Chinese influence</a>
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<p>Australia provides the largest amount of aid and investment into PNG in the world. But the perception in Canberra remains that Australia’s influence in its nearest neighbour is being diluted, and that this needs to be addressed for strategic purposes.</p>
<h2>Asylum seekers and a naval base on Manus Island</h2>
<p>Given the nature and importance of the relationship between Australia and PNG, it’s not surprising this bilateral meeting has been prioritised ahead of next month’s Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Tuvalu. Their meeting allows for Morrison and Marape spend some time getting to know each other before they meet with a larger group of Pacific leaders.</p>
<p>Of the various announcements made on Monday, not much was new. There was a dollar commitment (A$250 million) to last year’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/australia-joints-multinational-effort-to-improve-png-energy/10508614">joint announcement</a> by PNG, Australia, New Zealand, the USA and Japan to bring electricity to 70% of Papua New Guinean people by 2030.</p>
<p>There was a passing reference to the joint redevelopment of the Lombrum naval base on Manus island by PNG, Australia and the USA, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/18/america-to-partner-with-australia-to-develop-naval-base-on-manus-island">also announced last year</a> at the APEC meeting held in Port Moresby. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-vanuatu-trip-shows-the-governments-continued-focus-on-militarising-the-pacific-109883">Morrison's Vanuatu trip shows the government's continued focus on militarising the Pacific</a>
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<p>It’s significant that the PNG delegation includes Charlie Benjamin, who is governor of the Manus province. He has already expressed <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/manus-governor-slams-australia-over-naval-base-plans/10515910">strong reservations</a> about this proposed redevelopment of the naval base. And he is not alone, with other commentators noting that such a development doesn’t necessarily sit well with PNG’s non-aligned status. </p>
<p>The development also provoked criticism from Beijing, which had apparently been seeking an agreement from the PNG government to develop the site.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1153466876518752256"}"></div></p>
<p>Benjamin has a powerful voice, and he made good use of it during his own impromptu press conference on Monday. </p>
<p>He used the opportunity to hammer home what has been the biggest thrust of the PNG message to Australia during the visit so far: the ongoing presence of asylum seekers and refugees on Manus and elsewhere in PNG. </p>
<p>Benjamin has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/22/manus-island-governor-urges-australia-to-help-resettle-refugees-urgently">made it clear</a> that the time has come for Australia to “step up” and resettle the refugees in his province to another country.</p>
<p>While Marape may feel he has secured <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/manus-refugees-urge-png-to-keep-pressure-on-australia-to-set-closure-deadline">some sort of commitment</a> from Morrison to establish a timetable for bringing this bit of the “Pacific Solution” to an end, the lack of detail about what that timetable is may prove a tricky sell back home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tess Newton Cain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From a naval base development to asylum seekers on Manus Island, there were many things the two leaders had to discuss.Tess Newton Cain, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1178412019-05-28T07:28:54Z2019-05-28T07:28:54ZCrisis? What crisis? A new prime minister in PNG might not signal meaningful change for its citizens<p>In recent days, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has announced his resignation, failed to formally resign, and is now <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/papua-new-guinea-in-crisis-as-pm-stalls-resignation">taking legal action</a> to prevent a parliamentary vote to remove him from office.</p>
<p>For most of PNG’s more than eight million inhabitants, today will not be substantially different from any other day. It will be a day of toil, hardship, humour, love, fear – and of negotiating how to survive in PNG’s villages and squatter settlements.</p>
<p>There are crises aplenty in the lives of these Papua New Guineans, but most won’t be worrying too much about the crisis unfolding in the nation’s capital, Port Moresby. Yet, this dispute is dominating the waking hours of the educated urbanites and social media commentators there and in the country’s major centres – as well as a small group of people watching PNG from Australia, and elsewhere.</p>
<p>Will Peter O’Neill really resign? Will he somehow manage to cling to the prime ministership? Will he leave, only to be replaced by one of his allies through whom he could continue to exercise power? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-theres-one-thing-pacific-nations-dont-need-its-yet-another-infrastructure-investment-bank-107198">If there's one thing Pacific nations don't need, it's yet another infrastructure investment bank</a>
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<h2>A reshuffling of the political cards</h2>
<p>While we acknowledge the divide between the great majority of struggling Papua New Guineans and PNG’s elites, we shouldn’t minimise the importance of the current crisis engulfing the country. O’Neill’s departure has the potential for a wholesale shift in the policy direction taken by PNG’s government. </p>
<p>It could result in PNG moving away from the big spending on major projects of the past few years, which many Papua New Guineans see as having benefited Port Moresby at the expense of everywhere else in this still largely rural nation. </p>
<p>But the suspicion of at least some informed Papua New Guinean observers is that it will result only in the rearranging of the deck chairs. A reshuffling of the cards that will lead to another privileged insider, another member of PNG’s political class, taking over the PM’s role from the mostly unlamented O’Neill.</p>
<h2>Rural citizens are disenfranchised and disengaged</h2>
<p>Despite their apparent failure in Australia’s recent federal election, most people would still agree that polls and surveys are a valuable way of gauging popular opinion. One of the more curious (and frustrating) aspects of PNG’s public affairs is that there has never been a successful attempt to conduct systematic and reasonably reliable opinion surveying. </p>
<p>This means that it is basically impossible to say with any certainty what “the average Papua New Guinean” thinks about O’Neill and the current political crisis. We don’t really know if O’Neill’s departure would be celebrated, or mourned.</p>
<p>PNG’s geographical challenges, along with inadequate transport and communication structures, suggest that most people will hear the news of Port Moresby politics at several removes. Should they feel sufficiently energised to want to act on what they hear – well, events will have moved on by that time. </p>
<p>Most Papua New Guineans living in villages, in highland valleys, islands, or other remote places, are disenfranchised, and certainly disengaged, from what goes on in Port Moresby. The same observation could be made about the people who live in the mushrooming settlements in Port Moresby, Lae, Mt Hagen, and other centres. Even if they are notionally urban dwellers, their connection with the complexities of these events is remote. </p>
<p>So we tend to rely on what we hear from the city residents who are more engaged in public life, and especially those who are social media-savvy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-to-unveil-broad-suite-of-measures-to-boost-australias-influence-in-the-pacific-106557">Morrison to unveil broad suite of measures to boost Australia's influence in the Pacific</a>
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<h2>City-dwellers resent O'Neill</h2>
<p>What this group thinks about the O’Neill situation is fairly apparent. Ever since he replaced the ailing Michael Somare as Prime Minister in 2011, resentment against O’Neill has been expressed in a range of forums (including social media, to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/16/png-government-may-restrict-facebook-as-pm-faces-no-confidence-motion">annoyance</a> of O’Neill and his supporters). </p>
<p>The wave of anger has built over the years since then, and has crested recently with the revelations about O’Neill’s involvement with the <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/revealed-png-pm-peter-o-neill-s-very-bad-oil-search-deal-20190523-p51qhk">Oil Search-UBS loan affair</a>, which many regard as confirming every suspicion they held about the Prime Minister’s character. The A$1.2 billion loan from the Swiss UBS bank, which enabled the PNG government to buy shares in Oil Search Ltd, was, in the words of PNG’s Ombudsman Commission, “highly inappropriate”. It was undertaken in the face of contrary advice from PNG’s then Treasurer, Don Polye, <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/ubs-loan-to-png-government-may-have-breached-15-laws-20190515-p51nls">whom O'Neill sacked</a>.</p>
<p>Anti-O’Neill sentiment over the years failed to garner much support from the Members of PNG’s National Parliament. Until very recently, O’Neill’s People’s National Congress (PNC) and its coalition partners dominated the House. Crucially, and mostly driven by the UBS revelations, this has now changed. </p>
<p>The prime minister is becoming increasingly isolated as more parliamentarians defect from the O'Neill party to join the disparate collection of MPs who are gathering at one of Port Moresby’s luxury hotels. While some social media commentators reckon that his recent “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/26/papua-new-guineas-prime-minister-peter-oneill-resigns">resignation</a>” may be merely a ploy, it is looking like the game might be up for Peter O’Neill – unless through the cunning and political adeptness he is known for, he is still able to turn the tables on his political enemies. </p>
<p>At the time of writing, O'Neill is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FormI-AYbWI">pursuing action</a> in the PNG Supreme Court over the legality of a “vote of no confidence” in his government.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/deep-sea-mining-threatens-indigenous-culture-in-papua-new-guinea-112012">Deep sea mining threatens indigenous culture in Papua New Guinea</a>
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<h2>Leadership isn’t the only crisis facing PNG</h2>
<p>There is a crisis in PNG at the moment. Indeed, there are several. The country is suffering from significant health issues, ranging from the reappearance of TB and polio to the inadequacy of its pharmaceutical and medical supplies. </p>
<p>In October, the people of Bougainville may <a href="http://bougainville-referendum.org/">vote to secede</a> from the rest of the country, of which they have been part since 1975. </p>
<p>The billions of kina spent on development has largely been confined to the cities, and most Papua New Guineans have experienced little change in their living standards over the past four decades.</p>
<p>These are the real challenges facing PNG, and the current leadership crisis in Port Moresby might – or, as some fear, might not – produce a meaningful response to them.</p>
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<p><em>The author would like to acknowledge the contribution of Brime Olewale to this story.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Ritchie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are the real challenges facing Papua New Guinea, and the current leadership crisis in Port Moresby may or may not not produce a meaningful response to them.Jonathan Ritchie, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1072862018-11-22T23:28:48Z2018-11-22T23:28:48ZIn the post-APEC scramble to lavish funds on PNG, here’s what the country really needs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246606/original/file-20181121-161615-77annm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A student does his homework near a solar power kit in remote PNG - apparently charging his phone or looking up something on the internet.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Geoff Miller/University of Queensland</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you set out by dinghy from the northern-most inhabited part of Australia you will make landfall in Papua New Guinea (PNG) fairly soon.</p>
<p>Boigu Island, part of Queensland, is the most northerly island in the Torres Strait. With its own Australia Post outlet, it is less than ten kilometres from the <a href="http://www.tsirc.qld.gov.au/your-council/who-we-are/about-council">PNG coast,</a> an area known as South Fly District, part of Western Province. (Fly refers to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Fly-River">Fly River</a>, a major feature of the area.)</p>
<p>PNG, a country often overlooked by the Australian public, is enjoying the fierce competition among foreign powers for influence in the country after APEC <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/18/apec-summit-mike-pence-warns-of-chinas-constricting-belt-and-one-way-road">ended in stalemate and heightened US-China tensions</a>. APEC was held in Port Moresby, PNG’s capital, earlier this week.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tensions-ratchet-up-between-china-and-the-us-australia-risks-being-caught-in-the-crossfire-107178">As tensions ratchet up between China and the US, Australia risks being caught in the crossfire</a>
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<p>For PNG, the attention may well translate to development funds. Already, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/18/america-to-partner-with-australia-to-develop-naval-base-on-manus-island">the US has pledged to work with Australia </a>to upgrade Lombrum naval base on Manus Island, in what is widely seen as a counter to rising influence from Beijing in the region.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246747/original/file-20181121-161638-44rq9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fishermen at Daru, the capital of PNG’s Western Province, pictured in 2006 as local police cracked down on illegal fishing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Royal PNG Constabulary</span></span>
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<p>But if foreign powers really want to make a difference to PNG, one of the poorest in the region, then funding equipment like telecommunications gear and solar power kits would be widely welcomed. One key benefit would be using mobile phones to transfer money - instead of traipsing long distances to a bank in town.</p>
<p>No fewer than <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/09/29/connecting-the-unconnected-in-papua-new-guinea">85% of PNG citizens</a> live in rural and remote areas, it is estimated - so items like these are capable of making an enormous difference in their lives.</p>
<p>Much talk of infrastructure of late has involved the heavy duty type - ports, rail, military bases and the like. But as we all know, the biggest revolution around the globe is internet access.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-theres-one-thing-pacific-nations-dont-need-its-yet-another-infrastructure-investment-bank-107198">If there's one thing Pacific nations don't need, it's yet another infrastructure investment bank</a>
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<p>Stepping into remote villages in the South Fly, one is viscerally confronted with the lack of national expenditure or international finances of any kind. </p>
<p>Life in rural PNG has been described in terms of its <a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/cap-events/2013-03/guide-subsistence-affluence">“subsistence affluence.”</a> The people are friendly and the land is fertile, with reliable rainfall. </p>
<p>But the lack of roads or public transport, and access to cash, means that opportunities for enterprise and employment remain extremely low. Everyone is searching for <a href="https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/Aid-Prog-docs/Evaluations/2018/PNG-CPE-P3-Final.pdf">markets for their produce and crafts</a>, so they can get cash to buy consumables and health services, and pay school fees. </p>
<p>One option for transferring money in these remote areas is via mobile phones. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mobile-money-transfers-have-taken-off-in-somalia-but-there-are-risks-104162">Mobile money transfers have taken off in Somalia. But there are risks</a>
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<p>Recent research by <a href="https://issr.uq.edu.au/article/2018/11/mobile-money-opportunity-development-and-governance-rural-papua-new-guinea">Tim Grice </a>found that people living in urban centres and rural towns in PNG are already using mobile money to send money to one another.</p>
<p>It is yet to take off in the South Fly but it could do soon, as people are already exchanging mobile phone credits used to top-up their phones.</p>
<p>Across the South Fly, villagers receive money from relatives living in urban centres like Port Moresby - or from Australian relatives in the Torres Strait - through the mail service Post PNG or the “bricks and mortar” Bank South Pacific (BSP) branch in Daru. </p>
<p>Households affected by the nearby Ok Tedi mine receive compensation payments into their bank accounts. The payments relate to extensive environmental damage to the area, especially the Fly River, when <a href="https://www.bhp.com/media-and-insights/news-releases/2002/02/bhp-billiton-withdraws-from-ok-tedi-copper-mine-and-establishes-development-fund-for-benefit-of-papua-new-guinea">BHP Billiton</a> operated the mine. But this could be done via phone payments too.</p>
<p>And then there are public servants or retired public servants, who burn up much of their government pay or pensions just to get to the bank and back. Mobile phone payments would improve life here too.</p>
<h2>Paying government salaries and pensions by phone would be far easier</h2>
<p>In the South Fly, officials get payments from the PNG government for community work projects. These officials keep careful records of the hours each villager works, but sometimes spend months in Daru, repeatedly asking the district administrator to release the funds. When the funds finally arrive, the elected official journeys home, surrounded by relatives as bodyguards, and hand delivers payments to each worker.</p>
<p>Much of the money goes on transport and accommodation in Daru. Again, this money could be sent via mobile phones.</p>
<p>PNG’s new Ireland province tested the idea of social payments for aged and disability pensions - with great success. The World Bank assessed the idea and said an electronic payment system was needed across the country.</p>
<p>In many South Fly villages, the shared mobile phone is found dangling from a tree or a window, in the one place where reception appears intermittently.</p>
<p>A lack of infrastructure maintenance and coastal corrosion have seen mobile phone coverage in the South Fly deteriorate. Work is underway to replace failing towers, ahead of moves to bring in 3G internet coverage. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246770/original/file-20181122-161644-1kk8hk7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A young girl in traditional dress uses a mobile phone as she waits for then Prime Minister Tony Abbott in Port Moresby in March 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Maintaining mobile phone towers is cheaper than building roads</h2>
<p>The cost of installing and maintaining mobile phone infrastructure is lower than building roads across river deltas and flood-prone savannah. And the higher the demand for transferring money via mobile phones, the more viable an upgrade to mobile coverage becomes.</p>
<p>International donors like China are increasingly funding infrastructure projects in PNG, though often with strings attached. <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/development-assistance/Pages/papua-new-guinea.aspx">Australian Prime Minister</a> Scott Morrison just announced an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-08/scott-morrison-announces-pacific-infrastructure-bank/10475452">infrastructure financing facility.</a></p>
<p>Two major mobile network operators, Digicel and B-Mobile, already provide mobile money services in partnership with BSP, Westpac, and ANZ. </p>
<h2>Foreign aid could be sent via mobile phones, cutting out the middlemen</h2>
<p><a href="https://dfat.gov.au/geo/papua-new-guinea/development-assistance/Pages/papua-new-guinea.aspx">Foreign aid</a> could be distributed this way, to a community-based organisation, for example. And cash flowing in means better-off citizens and more economic activity.</p>
<p>Another big potential benefit to all this could be tackling absenteeism among teachers and medical workers. They are often off work travelling long distances to towns to get their pay and do grocery shopping.</p>
<p>But there are risks. Giving the cash directly to people and organisations - where previously it was funnelled through the central government - will fundamentally shift the politics between citizens, leaders, bureaucrats, and international actors, and not necessarily for the better. Some people who may be benefiting from current arrangements may oppose change to protect the privileges they enjoy.</p>
<p>PNG is a place of great complexity, with a development landscape littered with failed efforts. If such changes are made, there will be winners and losers - but surely it’s worth considering new approaches, given how little money is getting to these villages now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Moran is the lead Chief Investigator of an Australian Research Council Discovery Grant into the PNG–Australia Borderland. He is a professor of development effectiveness at the Institute for Social Science Research at the University of Queensland, the Program Director for UQ’s new Master of Leadership in Global Development, and is a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development.</span></em></p>PNG is enjoying unfamiliar global attention after the APEC summit earlier this week, and the rivalry between the United States and China to exert influence in the region.Mark Moran, Chair of Development Effectiveness, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1064482018-11-19T03:20:22Z2018-11-19T03:20:22ZAfter APEC, US-China tensions leave ‘cooperation’ in the cold<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246142/original/file-20181119-44261-xbekgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">US Vice President Mike Pence with New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden. PNG Prime Minister Peter O'Neill, Japan's Shinzo Abe and Australia's Scott Morrison were among the leaders of the 21 economies making up APEC.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>United States Vice President Mike Pence’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/18/america-to-partner-with-australia-to-develop-naval-base-on-manus-island">remarks </a>at the end of this year’s summit season just about blasted the word “cooperation” out of the APEC acronym. Amid ill-concealed US-China tensions, it had already been looking out of place.</p>
<p>Pence unveiled US plans to help Australia and Papua New Guinea - APEC’s host this year - expand a military base on Manus Island, which is in PNG. In September, Australia had already <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mike-pence-announces-us-australia-military-pact-to-expand-manus-island-naval-base-20181117-p50goi.html">announced</a> funding for an upgrade of the facility. </p>
<p>Former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans famously declared in 1993 that APEC was <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/11/06/apec.does.it.matter/index.html">“four adjectives in search of a noun”</a>. As one of APEC’s founding fathers, he could be forgiven for getting the parts of speech slightly wrong.</p>
<p>But 25 years on, “cooperation” is looking doubtful. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum set sail in Canberra in 1989. Two former prime ministers, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, lay some claim to its parentage. APEC has grown to boast <a href="https://www.apec.org/About-Us/About-APEC/Member-Economies">21 member economies </a> (where China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are listed as separate member economies). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-his-first-major-foreign-policy-test-morrison-needs-to-stick-to-the-script-106606">In his first major foreign policy test, Morrison needs to stick to the script</a>
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<p>APEC is part of summit season in Asia in November, and the one closest to Australia’s heart, given its origins in Canberra. Three other big set pieces are also held within this week each year and bring all the key players in the region together, ostensibly to talk about advancing cooperation, community building and grappling with common problems. Two others relate to <a href="https://asean.org/">ASEAN</a>, the grouping of 10 South-east Asian nations - its annual summit, and the ASEAN Plus 3 meeting where they bring in South Korea, Japan and China. Then there is the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/regional-architecture/eas/Pages/east-asia-summit-eas.aspx">East Asia Summit</a>, which comprises the 10 ASEAN members, plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, the United States and Russia. These talk-fests give states and economies, great and small, the chance to advance a broad-ranging positive agenda. </p>
<p>But the many handshakes, <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/multimedia/photo/11/14/18/duterte-in-singapore-for-asean-summit">photo ops</a> and positive sounding <a href="https://asean.org/chairmans-statement-13th-east-asia-summit/">joint-statements</a> could not mask the reality of hardening US-China geopolitical competition. It is a cruel irony that a group of meetings created to advance cooperation became the platform for what amounted to a very public drawing of lines of great power competition.</p>
<p>Feelings were mixed when it was announced US President Donald Trump would go to Europe for the centenary of world war one’s truce this year, instead of Asia’s summits. The signal sent that the president does not <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/trump-absence-in-asean-summit-signal-not-as-committed-to-asia.html">prioritise the region</a> is unmistakable. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/246112/original/file-20181119-44258-h339v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison mixes exotic dress with his passion for rugby league team the Cronulla Sharks in his APEC diplomacy.</span>
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<p>During his visit, Pence put on a <a href="https://www.wsfa.com/2018/11/15/pence-says-us-committed-indo-pacific-not-seeking-control/">stern face</a> on US policy, and in his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-2018-apec-ceo-summit-port-moresby-papua-new-guinea/">speech to the APEC CEO Summit</a> he reinforced the United States’ wish to build a relationship with China, based on “fairness, reciprocity, and respect for sovereignty”. In earlier <a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018">comments to the Hudson Institute</a> he accused Beijing of stealing military blueprints, “and using that stolen technology, the Chinese Communist Party is turning ploughshares into swords on a massive scale…”.</p>
<p>Washington now sees itself in full spectrum competition with China for regional and global influence. Pence portrayed China as an aggressive and almost imperial power with a malign regional vision. In contrast, he emphasised that the US wanted to protect an open and rules-based system of genuine partnerships. He underscored the long-term nature of this commitment. </p>
<p>The problem, both for Washington and its partners, is that this new muscular approach to China is, as yet, not fully resourced, and does not align the military aspects with trade - notwithstanding the Manus announcement.</p>
<p>Trump’s economic nationalism jibes badly with the interests of its partners and its long term regional strategy. A free and open Indo-Pacific sits uncomfortably with America’s economic nationalism, imposing tariffs on allies and pleas for multilateral approaches being summarily dismissed.</p>
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<span class="caption">New Zealand’s Jacinda Arden and Canada’s Justin Trudeau share a laugh as Scott Morrison and other APEC leaders look on.</span>
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<p>At the same CEO summit, Xi Jinping gave a <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-11/17/c_137613904.htm">rare major address</a> outside of China. Like Pence, he sought to lay out a vision for the region that presented China as a force for economic openness, integration and development.</p>
<p>Continuing the themes first articulated at <a href="https://america.cgtn.com/2017/01/17/full-text-of-xi-jinping-keynote-at-the-world-economic-forum">Davos in 2017</a>, the unstated but obvious point of contrast was with America. Xi also rebutted criticism of the Belt and Road Initiative, declaring it was neither a trap nor a geopolitical gambit but an “open platform for cooperation”. But as with his earlier efforts to paint China as a defender of economic openness, the claims remain unconvincing. </p>
<p>Hosting APEC in PNG was fitting, given the south-west Pacific has become a key site of US-China competition. The Manus announcement, along with another that a group of Western allies would collaborate to drive <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/apec-2018-australia-joins-global-alliance-to-power-up-png">a massive electrification project</a> in the country, gives a concrete sense of what this means for the region. As in the Cold War, when Soviet-American rivalry led to bidding wars in the developing world, today China and the US are competing for influence in the form of infrastructure and development funding.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pence-visit-reassures-that-the-us-remains-committed-to-the-asia-pacific-76561">Pence visit reassures that the US remains committed to the Asia-Pacific</a>
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<p>If the speeches laid down rhetorical battle lines, APEC’s conclusion showed the consequences of this competition. For the first time in the grouping’s history, APEC members were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/apec-leaders-fail-to-agree-on-communique-wording/10508974">unable to agree on the wording of a final communique</a>. While a new Cold War is not yet here, this is another worrying step toward a serious rift in the global economy and geopolitics.</p>
<p>The biggest loser of the summit season is probably ASEAN. Founded in 1967 to wall off the newly independent states of south-east Asia from Cold War competition as the Vietnam war escalated, the grouping’s <a href="https://asean.org/?static_post=asean-building-the-peace-in-southeast-asia-2">principal purpose</a> has been to ensure the region does not become the wrestling mat of great power competition. It had been crucial to ensuring this goal was met in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War">Cold War </a>and its aftermath. Events of this past week show it is finding that much harder to achieve as the geopolitical temperature rises.</p>
<p>If there were any doubts, Asia’s summit season confirms that the region has entered a new phase. Great power competition is now Asia’s most important dynamic. Even though the set piece theatre is about community building and cooperation, the reality is that <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/explainer/what-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative">China</a> and <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/china-tells-us-to-stop-sending-warships-near-beijing-claimed-islands-in-south-china-sea/a-46232849">the US</a> have irreconcilable visions for the region and its future.</p>
<p>The only question is how much they are willing to pay to prevail in the contest for Asia’s future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Bisley is a member of China Matters Advisory Board an independent policy initiative that seeks to shape sound China policy in Australia. He has also received Commonwealth funding for research projects relating to regional security.</span></em></p>Summit season is usually a bit of a bore - worthy subjects lost in acronyms and diplomatic niceties. Not so this year as US-China tensions tore at the fabric of multi-lateralism.Nick Bisley, Head of Humanities and Social Sciences and Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/941762018-04-09T03:33:08Z2018-04-09T03:33:08ZAftershocks hit Papua New Guinea as it recovers from a remote major earthquake<p>Another powerful <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000dvwq#executive">aftershock</a> hit Papua New Guinea this weekend as the recovery effort continues following February’s deadly <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000d7q6#executive">magnitude 7.5 earthquake</a>, with many thousands of people <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/04/1006361">dependent on humanitarian aid</a>.</p>
<p>Aid organisations such as <a href="https://www.care.org.au/appeals/png-earthquake-emergency-response/">CARE Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.unicef.org.au/appeals/png-children-s-earthquake-appeal">UNICEF</a> are still seeking donations. The Australian government has sent <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/crisis-hub/Pages/papua-new-guinea-earthquake.aspx">medical staff and other support</a> to help.</p>
<p>Some have criticised the PNG government’s efforts as “<a href="https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/354046/govt-response-to-png-earthquakes-too-slow-for-hela-landowners">too slow</a>”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-landslides-and-why-theyre-so-devastating-in-png-92933">The science of landslides, and why they're so devastating in PNG</a>
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<p>But the earthquake highlights the challenge for emerging economies like PNG in deploying relief efforts into remote areas to deal with natural disasters. </p>
<p>And the same geological features that make PNG a rich source of mineral deposits are also part of its earthquake problem.</p>
<h2>The earthquake hits</h2>
<p>The February earthquake struck the western Highlands provinces of the Pacific island nation, and a series of aftershocks, including several of magnitude 6 or more, continued to shake the region during the following weeks.</p>
<p>Although parts of PNG are particularly earthquake-prone (especially in the north and the islands, along the plate boundary), February’s earthquake was quite exceptional. </p>
<p>It occurred in a usually less active part of the plate boundary and was remarkably powerful when compared with the short (modern) instrumental earthquake record. The strength and frequency of the aftershocks has posed an additional threat to local populations and key economic infrastructure.</p>
<p>On average 10-20 major earthquakes (magnitudes 7 and greater) occur on Earth every year. Most of them occur far from densely populated regions, such that only a few draw media attention. </p>
<p>The mountainous regions of New Guinea, known as the fold and thrust belt, have been geologically active for millions of years. But the long recurrence interval of major earthquakes (every few centuries) combined with the short period of the instrument records (just a few decades) gives us the false impression that seismicity is uncommon in this region.</p>
<p>The February earthquake occurred due to the activation of a major fault system in the forested foothills, between the Papuan highlands to the north and the Fly River lowlands to the south. </p>
<h2>Australia collides</h2>
<p>The Papuan highlands have risen due to the collision between the Australian and Caroline/Pacific tectonic plates over the past five million years. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZYHU576h-OA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An animation of Australia’s tectonic journey as it broke away from Gondwana more than 100 million years ago. (Credit: Sabin Zahirovic)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite this collision, the Australian plate continues to move at about 7 cm a year to the northeast, in geological terms a quite remarkable speed, leading to a build-up of strain in the continental crust. </p>
<p>Much of this strain is released at the plate boundary along northern New Guinea, usually with more frequent but less powerful swarms of earthquakes. It is this motion, driven by the churning interior of our planet, that leads to <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-on-the-move-how-gps-keeps-up-with-a-continent-in-constant-motion-71883">major adjustments to the GPS datum</a> and reference coordinates for the entire Australian continent. </p>
<p>But few people are aware that this very motion of the Australian continent is what causes the seismic and volcanic activity in New Guinea and parts of Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>As Australia moves northward, the entire New Guinea margin acts as a bulldozer, collecting Pacific islands, seamounts and other topographic features. New Guinea represents the leading edge of the advancing Australian continent, which causes continental crust to fold and crumple over a broad region.</p>
<p>This is a well-known process in plate tectonics, where the oceanic plates are known to behave quite rigidly, whereas the continental regions tend to deform over broader diffuse boundaries that resemble plasticine over geological timeframes.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/y_BKN_05BuU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When continents are squeezed during tectonic collisions, the crust crumples and folds over geological timescales. (Credit: Romain Beucher)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the continental deformation process results in poorly defined (often due to the thick tropical vegetation cover) and intermittently active fault systems in the continent.</p>
<p>Over the duration of mountain building in the past five million years, the areas of highest deformation have shifted across the range. Today most of the deformation in PNG takes place north of the mountainous area, where it generates a lot of earthquakes.</p>
<h2>Underground riches at risk</h2>
<p>Some substantial crumpling of the continental crust still occurs across the southern foothills. The folding and thrusting has generated geologically young folds, within which a large part of PNG’s gas and oil wealth has accumulated. </p>
<p>The intense tectonic activity has also led to the enrichment of mineral resources, including mines sourcing gold, copper, silver, nickel, cobalt and a suite of other ore types.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213753/original/file-20180409-121440-80f5uj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of the aftershocks magnitude 4+ since the main quake (as of April 9, 2018). The size and colour (small to large, yellow to red) indicate aftershock magnitude and D+ the number of days after main shock. The white shaded ellipse represents the area of greatest slip during the main shock. Green diamonds represent the main gas fields.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">USGS/Gilles Brocard</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is this tectonic activity that determines the delicate interplay of economic benefits from raw materials, and the often-devastating and usually-unpredictable effects of natural disasters on society.</p>
<p>Although the February earthquake occurred at the very heart of one of the largest and newest gas fields in the country, the industrial installations, at the highest international standards, have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-papua-quake-exxon-mobil/exxonmobil-says-no-indication-of-damage-to-papua-new-guinea-gas-pipeline-idUSKCN1GC0D4">not suffered major damage</a> from the tremors.</p>
<p>But the ongoing disaster triggered a temporary halt in gas extraction, as the facilities require inspections and repairs. Unfortunately, and unusually, the earthquakes have struck in some of the most remote parts of the country.</p>
<h2>Coping with disaster</h2>
<p>Hela province is one of the poorest in PNG and its people are unprepared and ill-equipped to deal with a disaster of this scale. As many as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/papua-new-guinea-earthquake-anger-grows-among-forgotten-victims">half a million people were reported</a> to be affected by the earthquake. At least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/15/papua-new-guinea-earthquake-death-toll-rises-disease-threat-grows">145 people reported</a> killed.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-active-volcanoes-on-my-asia-pacific-ring-of-fire-watch-list-right-now-90618">Five active volcanoes on my Asia Pacific 'Ring of Fire' watch-list right now</a>
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<p>The Highlands Highway, the one real road into the region, was <a href="https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/353981/road-repairs-after-png-quake-to-cost-over-us12m">badly damaged</a> and this is the major source of food and medicines. Many feeder roads have gone. </p>
<p>Papua New Guineans are resilient but it is likely that more external assistance will be needed to ensure that a physical disaster does not become a greater human tragedy.</p>
<p>Even so the full extent of the disaster has still to be revealed, while aftershocks continue to trigger secondary hazards including major landslides that have isolated a large number of communities.</p>
<p>Not only are local communities facing the immediate hazards of further earthquakes and landslides, they face a protracted and costly recovery ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Sabin Zahirovic receives funding from The University of Sydney, the Australian Research Council Research Hub for Basin Geodynamics and Evolution of Sedimentary Systems (Basin GENESIS Hub), and the Deep Carbon Observatory (DCO).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Gilles Brocard works at the School of Geosciences, at The University of Sydney. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Basin Geodynamics and Evolution of Sedimentary Systems (Basin GENESIS) Research Hub. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Romain Beucher receives funding from The University of Melbourne. He is part of the Australian Research Council Research Hub for Basin Geodynamics and Evolution of Sedimentary Systems (Basin GENESIS Hub) </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Connell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fresh earthquakes and aftershocks hit parts of Papua New Guinea following February’s deadly quake. It’s Australia’s slow push north that’s part of PNG’s seismic activity.Sabin Zahirovic, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of SydneyGilles Brocard, Post doctoral associate, University of SydneyJohn Connell, Professor of Human Geography, University of SydneyRomain Beucher, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Computational Geodynamics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/929332018-03-07T02:23:54Z2018-03-07T02:23:54ZThe science of landslides, and why they’re so devastating in PNG<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209214/original/file-20180306-146655-nxayso.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A magnitude 7.5 earthquake took place on February 25, 81km southwest of Porgera, Papua New Guinea. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000d7q6#map">US Geological Survey </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000d7q6#executive">magnitude 7.5 earthquake</a> struck the Southern Highlands region of Papua New Guinea on February 25, 2018. This was followed by a series of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-05/aftershocks-rattles-quake-hit-papua-new-guinea/9508534">aftershocks</a>, producing widespread landslides that have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/04/papua-new-guinea-hit-by-aftershocks-of-fatal-earthquake">killed dozens and injured hundreds</a>. The same landslides have cut off roads, telecommunications and power to the area. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"968515779175075840"}"></div></p>
<p>The PNG government has declared a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-02/png-declares-state-of-emergency-after-earthquake/9501496">state of emergency</a> in the region. There is growing concern over <a href="https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2018/02/28/papua-new-guinea-crisis/">several valleys that have been dammed by landslides</a> and are beginning to fill with water - now ready to collapse and surge downstream, directly towards more villages.</p>
<p>Why is Papua New Guinea so susceptible to landslides? It’s a combination of factors - steep terrain, earthquakes and aftershocks plus recent seasonal rains have created an environment that is prone to collapse.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-active-volcanoes-on-my-asia-pacific-ring-of-fire-watch-list-right-now-90618">Five active volcanoes on my Asia Pacific 'Ring of Fire' watch-list right now</a>
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<h2>How land becomes unstable</h2>
<p>The Earth around us is generally pretty stable, but when the ground shakes during an earthquake it can start to move in ways we don’t expect. </p>
<p>Pressure changes during an earthquake create an effect in the soil called <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/watch-this-awesome-experiment-shows-how-liquefaction-occurs-during-an-earthquake">liquefaction</a>, where the soil itself acts as a fluid.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/b_aIm5oi5eA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When wet soil is exposed to physical pressure, other physical changes take place.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When lots of water is present in the soil, as is the case now during the monsoon season in Papua New Guinea, liquefaction can happen even more easily.</p>
<p>When liquefaction occurs, the earthquake creates changes due to friction. Imagine a visit to the greengrocer, where an accidental bumping of a carefully stacked pile of apples can cause cause them all to suddenly collapse. What was holding the pile together was friction between the individual apples – and when this disappears, so does the pile.</p>
<p>In an earthquake, two tectonic plates slip past one another deep underground, rubbing together and cracking the nearby rocks. The effects of this movement up at the surface can vary depending on the nature of the earthquake, but one feature is fairly common: <a href="https://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/earthquake-montage">small objects bounce around</a>. The sand grains just below the surface do the same thing, but a bit less excitedly. A few metres down, grains could be bouncing around just enough to lose contact with each other, removing the friction, and becoming unstable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209215/original/file-20180306-146650-19al7kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 2012 landslide in the southern highlands of Papua New Guinea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfataustralianaid/10707695855/in/photolist-hjcLST-hjcJVM-7XNWEw-nrjyQn/">dfataustralianaid/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Things are normally stable because they’re sitting on top of something else. When that support suddenly disappears, things tend to fall down – this is the classic dodgy folding chair problem experienced by many.</p>
<p>In engineering, we call this “failure” – and in the building industry it usually occurs immediately before the responsible engineer receives a call from a lawyer. Mechanically, this failure happens when the available friction isn’t enough to support the weight of the material above it.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-after-an-earthquake-how-does-a-tsunami-happen-83732">Explainer: after an earthquake, how does a tsunami happen?</a>
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<h2>When soil acts like fluid</h2>
<p>Once a slope fails, it starts to fall downhill. If it really slides, then we’re back to the same situation of grains bouncing around. Now, none of the grains are resting against each other, and the whole thing is <a href="https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2018/02/22/river-of-rock-1/">acting like a fluid</a>. </p>
<p>A couple of interesting things happen at this point. First, as the grains are bouncing around, small particles start to fall through all the newly formed holes that have opened up. This occurs for the same reason that you find all the crumbs at the bottom of your cereal box, and all of the unpopped kernels at the bottom of your bowl of popcorn. Once these smaller fragments accumulate at the bottom of the flowing landslide, they can help it slide more easily, accelerating everything and increasing its destructive power. </p>
<p>Second, landslides typically flow faster at the surface than below, so as large particles accumulate at the top they are also the ones moving the fastest, and they start to collect at the front of the landslide. These large particles, often boulders and trees, can be incredibly damaging for any people or structures in their path. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209232/original/file-20180307-146697-1bsk93y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Simulation of a landslide impacting a structure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjy Marks/USyd</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The image above shows a laboratory simulation of a landslide flowing down a slope and hitting a fixed wall. The spherical particles are coloured by size (small is yellow; large is blue). Data from these sorts of studies can help predict the forces that an object will feel if it gets hit by a landslide.</p>
<h2>Watching and waiting</h2>
<p>These complex dynamics mean that we really need to know a lot about the geography and geology of a particular slope before any kind of reliable prediction could be made about the behaviour of a particular landslide. </p>
<p>In the remote areas of Papua New Guinea, accumulating this data at every point on every slope is a tough challenge. Luckily, huge advancements have recently been made in remote sensing, so that planes and satellites can be used to extract this vital information. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/positioning-navigation/geodesy/geodetic-techniques/interferometric-synthetic-aperture-radar">sophisticated sensors</a>, they can see past foliage and map the ground surface in high resolution. As satellites orbit quite regularly, small changes in the surface topography can be monitored. Scientists hope that by using this information, unstable regions that haven’t yet failed can be identified and monitored.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/controversial-artist-elizabeth-durack-gave-us-a-sensitive-insight-into-the-lives-of-papuan-women-79423">Controversial artist Elizabeth Durack gave us a sensitive insight into the lives of Papuan women</a>
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<p>Papua New Guinea is located on an active fault line and has had <a href="https://earthquaketrack.com/p/papua-new-guinea/recent">nine major earthquakes in the past five years</a>. Combined with the often remote and steep terrain, together with a monsoon season that delivers repeated heavy rainfall events, it is a particularly active area for landslides to develop. </p>
<p>The dry season in Papua New Guinea will not arrive until June. During the current wet season we may see even more slopes fail due to destabilisation by the recent earthquakes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjy Marks receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Why is Papua New Guinea so susceptible to landslides? Steep terrain, earthquakes and aftershocks plus recent seasonal rains have created an environment that is prone to collapse.Benjy Marks, Lecturer in Geomechanics, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/818992017-08-01T04:42:41Z2017-08-01T04:42:41ZThe good news and bad news about the rare birds of Papua New Guinea<p>The rainforests of Papua New Guinea are home to one of the richest bird populations in the world. But many are threatened by logging and palm oil farming. </p>
<p>Now, a team of researchers led by Edith Cowan University have surveyed the PNG island of New Britain to see how the bird population is faring. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XvqtidPuyUs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>The good news: several bird species, like the Blue-eyed Cockatoo, were found to be doing better than before. </p>
<p>The bad news: the researchers saw only a few New Britain Kingfishers, and some vulnerable species, like the New Britain Bronzewing, Golden Masked-owl and Bismarck Thicketbird, were not seen at all. </p>
<p>Their results, recently published in the journal <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bird-conservation-international/article/conservation-status-of-threatened-and-endemic-birds-of-new-britain-papua-new-guinea/B41674840861DC81DE22F94841F135A6">Bird Conservation International</a>, help to inform the <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org/">International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Davis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A team of researchers led by Edith Cowan University have surveyed the PNG island of New Britain to see how the bird population is faring. There’s good news and bad news.Robert Davis, Senior Lecturer in Vertebrate Biology, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/640612016-08-17T23:59:53Z2016-08-17T23:59:53ZManus Island centre set to close – but where to for the detainees?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134535/original/image-20160817-3597-cvbbft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People protesting offshore detention of asylum seekers interrupted Malcolm Turnbull's speech to CEDA on Wednesday.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Manus Island Regional Processing Centre – one of the two key sites of Australia’s offshore immigration detention regime – <a href="http://www.minister.border.gov.au/peterdutton/Pages/MANUS-REGIONAL-PROCESSING-CENTRE.aspx">will close</a>. A date is not set, nor any arrangement confirmed for resettling the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-17/manus-island-to-close-png-prime-minister-confirms/7759810">854 men still detained</a> there.</p>
<p>In April 2016, the Papua New Guinea Supreme Court found the detention arrangement on Manus Island <a href="https://www.scribd.com/doc/310461159/PNG-Supreme-Court-Decision-on-Manus-Island">was unconstitutional</a>. PNG Prime Minister Peter O'Neill immediately <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-27/png-pm-oneill-to-shut-manus-island-detention-centre/7364414">asked Australia to make alternative arrangements</a> for the detainees, implying <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-asked-to-declare-manus-detention-illegal-as-859-detainees-seek-their-day-in-court-58880">Australia is responsible</a> for what happens to them. </p>
<p>It has taken more than three months for the two governments to jointly announce the centre will close. But the detainees’ fate is now even more uncertain.</p>
<h2>Where will the detainees go?</h2>
<p>Australia’s immigration minister, Peter Dutton, <a href="http://www.minister.border.gov.au/peterdutton/Pages/MANUS-REGIONAL-PROCESSING-CENTRE.aspx">confirmed</a> “no-one” detained on Manus Island “will ever be settled in Australia”. Instead, the Australian government says the detainees must either resettle in PNG or return to their countries of origin.</p>
<p>Australia’s continued insistence that it will never resettle asylum seekers arriving by boat ignores practical realities. PNG is <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/07/15/australia/papua-new-guinea-pacific-non-solution">unable to provide a safe environment</a> for refugees. Australia has not made <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-not-manus-then-what-possible-alternatives-for-asylum-seekers-and-refugees-in-png-58514">any suitable third-party arrangement</a>. The “Cambodia solution” has been a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/australias-cambodia-refugee-resettlement-plan-a-failure-20160403-gnx3jv.html">costly failure</a>: that impoverished country has been unable to provide social protections for refugees.</p>
<p>Of those whose claims have been processed – about half of those detained on Manus – <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Quick_Guides/Offshore">98% have been confirmed as refugees</a>. The others await <a href="http://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/publication/offshore-processing-refugee-status-determination-asylum-seekers-manus-island">proper processing</a> under the <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/3b66c2aa10">UN Refugee Convention</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s argument that refugees and asylum seekers can go back to their country of origin risks their return to persecution. The <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/excom/scip/3ae68ccd10/note-non-refoulement-submitted-high-commissioner.html">prohibition on refoulement</a> – the return of refugees to the site of persecution – is the fundamental principle of international refugee law.</p>
<h2>What does human rights law demand?</h2>
<p>Asylum seekers arriving by boat are often characterised as “queue-jumpers”, trying to enter through “<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-can-do-better-on-asian-boat-crisis-than-nope-nope-nope-42255">the back door</a>”. It bears repetition that, in fleeing persecution in their home countries, refugees are asserting their <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1415/AsylumFacts">legal right to seek asylum</a>.</p>
<p>International law does not give asylum seekers or refugees standing to hold countries accountable for human rights violations. Australia exploits this impunity to maintain practices that violate international law. </p>
<p>Yet despite their incapacity to bring claims against Australia, asylum seekers detained offshore are entitled to a range of universal rights and freedoms. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>freedom from torture and inhuman or degrading treatment;</p></li>
<li><p>freedom from punitive detention;</p></li>
<li><p>judicial oversight of their detention;</p></li>
<li><p>freedom from forced deportation;</p></li>
<li><p>access to quality health care, education and work; and</p></li>
<li><p>special protection for the rights of children and families.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Australia has demonstrated its willingness to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-international-condemnation-on-human-rights-mean-so-little-to-australia-53814">ignore or reject international criticism</a> of its violation of these rights.</p>
<h2>A reorientation in asylum seeker policy?</h2>
<p>Only hours before the Manus centre closure was announced, protesters interrupted Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s speech to CEDA. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/17/close-the-bloody-camps-protesters-disrupt-malcolm-turnbull-speech">They demanded</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For God’s sake, Malcolm, close the fucking camps.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.facebook.com/events/266932076997739/">Rallies are planned</a> around Australia this month to call for an end to mandatory detention.</p>
<p>Pressure on the government is building from all quarters. Risking prosecution under <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/barns-newhouse-detention-centre-secrecy-just-got-even-worse/6501086">anti-whistleblower legislation</a>, 103 current and former Manus Island and Nauru staff have publicly demanded closure of the centres. They argue the evidence is clear: Australia’s practice is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/17/this-is-critical-103-nauru-and-manus-staff-speak-out-their-letter-in-full">systematically breaking</a> those subject to it.</p>
<p>Following the leaking of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/10/the-nauru-files-2000-leaked-reports-reveal-scale-of-abuse-of-children-in-australian-offshore-detention">Nauru files</a> this month, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/10/nauru-files-widespread-condemnation-of-australian-government-by-un-and-others">has called for</a> the removal of all detainees to humane conditions. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/16/after-the-nauru-files-how-can-australia-go-about-ending-offshore-detention?CMP=share_btn_tw">Migration experts</a> argue the only humane option is to close the centres and process asylum claims in Australia.</p>
<p>Critics have <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-did-we-become-so-indifferent-to-human-life-20160811-gqpxjj.html">noted the gulf</a> between political responses to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2016/07/25/4504895.htm">abuse scandal</a> in Northern Territory youth detention facilities – which immediately triggered a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-26/turnbull-calls-for-royal-commission-into-don-dale/7660164">royal commission</a> – and the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2016/aug/10/the-nauru-files-the-lives-of-asylum-seekers-in-detention-detailed-in-a-unique-database-interactive">2,116 reports</a> detailing abuse, assault, self-harm and inadequate living standards suffered by detainees on Nauru. </p>
<p>Key NGOs argue the <a href="https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/">royal commission into institutional child sexual abuse</a> must <a href="http://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/royal-commission-must-examine-nauru-abuse/">extend its inquiry</a> to Nauru.</p>
<p>Is it possible that the announcement of the Manus centre’s closure indicates government acceptance that the offshore detention system is – as refugee <a href="https://www.asrc.org.au/campaigns/bringthemhere/">advocates</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/sarahinthesen8/status/765813653945716741">claim</a> – <a href="http://berkeleytravaux.com/persecution-detention-australias-broken-asylum-system/">broken</a>? </p>
<p>Is the government searching for an alternative to offshore detention as public outrage grows? If so, it seems certain it will never admit as much. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134543/original/image-20160818-3608-1f4x9c3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pressure on the government for a change in its asylum policy is building from all quarters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Eoin Blackwell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the Manus closure should mean for Nauru</h2>
<p>It is essential that Australia comes to acknowledge the harms it has inflicted on thousands of vulnerable people who have committed no crime. In the short term, though, the most urgent priority must be the proper processing and appropriate resettlement of those still detained on Manus Island and Nauru. </p>
<p>The Manus closure was perhaps inevitable once the Supreme Court found PNG lacked authority to detain asylum seekers transferred there by Australia. No such judgment has been forthcoming in Nauru, but evidence reveals the suffering of people detained there under Australia’s authority. </p>
<p>It will be impossible for Australia to maintain its hardline approach to refugees indefinitely while representing itself as a responsible <a href="https://theconversation.com/cast-adrift-australia-risks-its-international-standing-over-asylum-seeker-policies-63872">international citizen</a>.</p>
<p>The first step in a reorientation of asylum policy must be the abandonment of offshore processing. Until this occurs, Australia cannot take responsibility for a process that it has shaped, or its consequences.</p>
<p>The major parties are <a href="https://theconversation.com/spot-the-difference-labor-vs-the-coalition-on-asylum-seekers-45581">largely united</a> on refugee policy, although <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-to-push-for-senate-inquiry-into-nauru-detention-centre-incident-report-leaks-20160813-gqs09e.html">cracks are appearing</a>. They are locked into practices that assume, despite a lack of evidence, offshore processing of some asylum seekers <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-no-evidence-that-asylum-seeker-deterrence-policy-works-8367">deters others</a> others from attempting the journey. </p>
<p>The government also refuses to acknowledge that onshore processing of asylum claims is not a guaranteed path to permanent settlement in Australia. <a href="http://un.org.au/2016/02/05/detaining-asylum-seekers-and-refugees-in-offshore-detention-centres-subject-to-international-obligations-despite-high-court-decision/">Regionally focused</a> <a href="http://www.julianburnside.com.au/an-alternative-to-offshore-detention/">alternative strategies</a> have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-17/manus-island-detention-centre-to-close,-is-nauru/7760480">proposed</a>. These ought to be negotiated among regional partners with the support of the UNHCR. </p>
<p>Mandatory offshore detention is not the only way to manage refugee flows. And it is clearly not the <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/document/publication/forgotten_children_2014.pdf">humane</a> or <a href="https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/world_report_download/wr2016_web.pdf">legal</a> response. </p>
<p>The announcement that the Manus centre will close provides an opportunity for Australia to assess alternatives. Political leaders could choose to open a new public dialogue to bring about reform. Whether they have the will to pursue such a process or not, they have the power to bring Australian law and practice into line with our international legal obligations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Maguire is a member of Amnesty International and Australian Lawyers for Human Rights. </span></em></p>It has taken more than three months for the Australian and PNG governments to jointly announce the Manus Island detention centre will close. But the detainees’ fate is now even more uncertain.Amy Maguire, Senior Lecturer in International Law, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/463902015-08-26T00:39:31Z2015-08-26T00:39:31ZAs Papua New Guinea faces worsening drought, a past disaster could save lives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92883/original/image-20150825-17755-15dc5a2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children from a village in Papua New Guinea's Western Highlands Province stand in one of countless sweet potato gardens destroyed by frost across the country, August 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kud Sitango</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For more than one million people across rural Papua New Guinea, <a href="http://www.academia.edu/7558495/Allen_B._J._and_R._M._Bourke_2009._The_1997-98_drought_in_Papua_New_Guinea_failure_of_policy_or_triumph_of_the_citizenry_Policy_Making_and_Implementation._Studies_from_Papua_New_Guinea._R._J._May._Canberra_ANU_E_Press_The_Australian_National_University_325-343">1997</a> was a year that will never be forgotten. Drought and frost caused hundreds of deaths: in some very remote communities, the death rate climbed to <a href="http://aciar.gov.au/files/node/306/0003pr99chapter3.pdf">seven in 100 people</a>. Crops failed; schools, jails and major mines were forced to close as water supplies ran dry; and there were outbreaks of diseases including diarrhoea, malaria and typhoid.</p>
<p>On Monday, PNG’s Prime Minister <a href="http://www.pm.gov.pg/index.php/news-centre/354-brace-for-severe-drought-governments-of-all-levels-businesses-and-communities-must-work-together">Peter O’Neill warned</a> that this year and 2016 could be <a href="http://www.thenational.com.pg/?q=node/93337">even worse</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92891/original/image-20150825-17779-itvr3a.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman with the last remaining well with some water on an island in Milne Bay Province, 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The official estimate is that more than 1.8 million people across PNG are currently affected by the extended drought and frosts of 2015, which the <a href="http://www.pm.gov.pg/index.php/news-centre/354-brace-for-severe-drought-governments-of-all-levels-businesses-and-communities-must-work-together">prime minister’s update</a> said have been “made worse due to the effects of climate change”. Of those, 1.3 million people have been classified as being at the highest risk from drought.</p>
<p>I saw firsthand how bad things got in PNG during that last drought, and I share the PNG government’s concerns – especially because the 2015 drought and frosts started earlier than in 1997, and the impact is already greater than it was at this time in 1997.</p>
<p>If the same proportion of PNG are affected this year as in 1997, then about 2.5 million people could suffer severe food shortages.</p>
<p>I’m flying to Port Moresby this week to help some government and church agencies assess the situation and to share lessons from the past. As PNG’s disaster response ramps up, my hope is that the still vivid memories of 1997 could avert an even bigger crisis in the months ahead.</p>
<h2>People on the move as crops fail, water runs dry</h2>
<p>The situation in PNG is developing rapidly and every day more reports come in from field workers or the PNG media. Here’s what we know so far.</p>
<p>As of late August 2015, frost has destroyed crops of the staple foods, sweet potato and potato, at many high-altitude locations (above 2200 metres altitude). Tens of thousands of people are reported to be leaving their villages and migrating to lower altitudes to find food.</p>
<p>One of the hardest-hit areas has been Enga province, where frost damage has destroyed many crops and water is scarce. As of a week ago, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/frost-drought-wipes-out-subsistence-crops-in-png-solomon-islands/6707964">at least 300,000 people</a> in that province were reported to have been affected.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92897/original/image-20150825-17797-171p4wp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children in Morobe Province and other parts of PNG now need to carry water from elsewhere in these bamboo pipes to their school, August 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Care International</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The prime minister’s August 24 update confirmed that schools are being told to reduce operating hours or temporarily close. That follows reports on August 20 from Enga that 15,000 students in 11 different schools had asked for classes to be suspended because of an acute shortage of drinking water. That number could grow to more than 100,000 students in Enga alone within the next fortnight. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, the major hospital at Tari in Hela Province is reported to have run out of drinking water. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=798&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92896/original/image-20150825-17760-b4pppb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1003&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of people rely on this local creek for drinking, but by mid-August 2015 it had already been reduced to this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/882795711755821/photos/pb.882795711755821.-2207520000.1440484722./883949898307069/?type=1&theater">Bata Mumbe/SIMBU El-Nino Relief Appeal/Facebook</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the nearby Southern Highlands Province, Governor William Powi <a href="http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2015/August/08-19-13.htm">declared a state of emergency</a> a week ago, as severe frost and drought have destroyed food gardens and reduced water supplies.</p>
<p>It is claimed that more than 500,000 people in that province are affected, with schools closed down as families struggle to survive. Hospitals, homes and business have little or no water for drinking or washing, with many businesses closed.</p>
<p>Similar, but less dramatic reports are coming in from other provinces in the highlands and several lowland provinces. Prices of sweet potato, green vegetables and other foods are reported to be increasing in some markets; water is scarce or unavailable in some smaller towns and government stations; and wild fires have destroyed houses and crops in at least four provinces.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rvtUHzB4978?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An August 21, 2015, news report on falling water levels at a dam that supplies power to a third of PNG.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Predicting the future from the recent past</h2>
<p>The striking thing about the reported situation in late August 2015 compared with the last major drought in PNG in 1997 is that problems are appearing earlier this time.</p>
<p>Repeated frost had impacted people at high-attitude locations by August 1997 and many locations were very dry. But the situation was nowhere as serious nor did it deteriorate as rapidly as appears to be occurring in 2015. Meteorologists’ forecasts of a major <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-12/el-nino-officially-declared-drier-hotter-conditions-predicted/6463966">El Nino event in 2015-16</a> appear to be borne out.</p>
<p>Given the experience of the big drought in 1997, and smaller ones in earlier decades (1972 and 1982), what can we expect in coming months?</p>
<p>While predicting the future is fraught, some or all of the following is likely.</p>
<p>There is likely to be a sharp increase in incidence of certain diseases, including diarrhoea, dysentery, malaria, typhoid, skin diseases and respiratory ailments.</p>
<p>Many people will be forced to move from high-altitude locations (above 2200 metres) because of destruction of food crops by frost.</p>
<p>Large populations at lower altitude in the seven highland provinces will be impacted as the drought destroys sweet potato and other food crops. Many people will use their cash reserves or will sell assets, including pig meat, to purchase imported foods.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92893/original/image-20150825-17771-jqyzkr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even cassava produced only tiny tubers in the 1997 drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some people on small islands and atolls in maritime provinces, including Milne Bay, Madang, Morobe, West New Britain, Manus and Bougainville, will suffer food shortages and some will be short of good quality drinking water.</p>
<p>The life of many women and girls will become even more difficult as they are forced to walk further to obtain drinking water. </p>
<p>Most people will be able to survive on foods that are not usually eaten in great quantity or are rarely eaten, including green papaya, tiny crabs, coconuts, ferns, fruit of “fig” trees, self-sown yams, the basal parts of banana plants and over-mature cassava tubers in abandoned food gardens.</p>
<p>In the lowlands, the impact is likely to be greatest for those living on small islands and atolls, especially those on remote islands where it is not possible to sell marine foods to those living in urban centres so as to gain cash which can be used to purchase imported rice.</p>
<p>The most vulnerable people are those in remote locations who have very limited cash income, limited or no access to urban markets, limited political influence and generally can only be accessed by air or foot. It was in some such communities that the death rate increased in the 1997 drought.</p>
<p>Many urban people will be impacted by lack of water. By late last week, Port Moresby residents had already been asked to conserve water. Many urban people will also be likely to divert their income to send cash or imported food to their village-based family.</p>
<h2>How we can avert a bigger crisis</h2>
<p>There are some reasons for optimism today, despite the rapidly worsening situation. </p>
<p>Most adult villagers and others in PNG remember what happened in 1997, unlike a generation ago, when very few people had any memory of the last really big drought and food shortages in 1941.</p>
<p>And the lessons learnt in prior droughts can be applied to reduce the impact on villagers’ lives and minimise the death rate. The PNG government has recently allocated <a href="http://www.pngmirror.com/prolonged-drought-presents-challenge-for-government/">K5 million</a> to commence disaster relief assistance.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92890/original/image-20150825-17787-183efhp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An RAAF Caribou aircraft used for assessing impacts of PNG’s drought in 1997.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The PNG government and other organisations in PNG need to be prepared for what could be a very major disruption to the lives of a high proportion of the population. Development partners, particularly Australia, should also be ready to provide assistance if asked, as they were in 1997.</p>
<p>The challenge ahead for everyone – communities across PNG, the PNG government, development partners including Australia, non-government and faith-based organisations – is to ensure 2015 is not remembered in the same way as 1997.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Mike Bourke receives funding from the Australian Government for research and development on Papua New Guinea agriculture and related issues.</span></em></p>Papua New Guinea is now facing a drought and frosts that look set to be worse than 1997, when hundreds of people died. So how can memories of 1997 save lives over the next few months?Richard Michael Bourke, Visiting Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/459532015-08-20T20:25:19Z2015-08-20T20:25:19ZIf we want to keep eating tuna, the world needs to learn how to share<p><em>Amid growing demand for seafood, gas and other resources drawn from the world’s oceans, and growing stresses from climate change, we examine some of the challenges and solutions for developing “<a href="https://theconversation.com/marine-science-challenges-for-a-growing-blue-economy-22845">the blue economy</a>” in smarter, more sustainable ways.</em></p>
<p>Fishing for tuna, swordfish, jack mackerel, Patagonian toothfish and many other species happens far out at sea, with fisheries often crossing multiple international boundaries.</p>
<p>It’s a huge global industry, which provides billions of dollars a year in direct and indirect benefits to developed and developing countries, and which supplies the world’s food markets. However, overfishing and weak management are serious threats, estimated to cost the world up to <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTARD/Resources/336681-1224775570533/SunkenBillionsFinal.pdf">US$50 billion a year</a> in lost benefits.</p>
<p>If we don’t learn to better manage transnational fisheries, we risk the long-term viability of key fisheries, as extraordinary global marine biodiversity is reduced to a shadow of its former health.</p>
<p>Whether you care about being better custodians of the Earth’s oceans, or simply want to be sure that we’ll have plenty of good fish in the sea to catch and eat for generations to come, it’s a huge global challenge. </p>
<p>Fortunately, there are new solutions we should be considering – including lessons from a tuna hotspot in the Pacific.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92507/original/image-20150820-32462-l2r6q3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fresh fish for sale in the Solomon Islands – one of the Pacific nations trialling more sustainable tuna fishing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Quentin Hanich</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we’re doing now is making things worse</h2>
<p>Australia and other concerned nations have long warned that <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjABahUKEwi7zNTUlLHHAhVkYqYKHXkGAvY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oecd.org%2Fsd-roundtable%2Fpapersandpublications%2F39375316.pdf&ei=jl_SVbvNIuTEmQX5jIiwDw&usg=AFQjCNG8ID5lQuk_bJMxopLK1ytc_5RIqw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY">current levels of fishing are unsustainable</a> and “leading inexorably to an impending crisis for global marine fisheries.”</p>
<p>Strong international action is required to strengthen fisheries management across multiple boundaries, reduce catches to sustainable levels, and optimise benefits to meet development goals.</p>
<p>But traditional management approaches can be politically contentious, especially because they often require consensus from numerous countries with conflicting interests. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to get multiple countries to agree on restrictions on fishing activities, or controls on fishing methods, or limits to access to fishing grounds or seasons – especially when that may not seem in their short-term national interest. That can be a particular concern for developing states that depend significantly on fisheries, with few other development and resource options.</p>
<p>Existing negotiation and treaty processes fail to successfully resolve the political aspects of conservation negotiations, and consequently, countries often prove unwilling to compromise. </p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780813820262.ch2/summary">Some argue</a> that some form of property or use right must be distributed among participants to deal with overfishing, so that industry and others have the <a href="http://www.trafficj.org/publication/06_conservation_implications.pdf">right incentives</a> to fish in ways that ensure long-term sustainability and economic viability.</p>
<p>However, applying rights-based management approaches to international fisheries requires first that everyone involved agrees on national allocations before those fishing rights trickle down to those actually catching the fish. Determining such rights through an explicit allocation process is highly fraught and take years of effort, particularly as allocation decisions generally require consensus.</p>
<p>While the negotiations drag on, overfishing continues – and can be exacerbated in a race-to-fish to support arguments for more generous allocations.</p>
<p>In order to build political support, new benefits are required that balance conservation costs. Conservation proponents point to long-term benefits from conservation reductions, but these are often too distant to motivate narrowly focused governments facing short-term electoral cycles.</p>
<p>Rights-based management proponents will argue incentives and higher economic efficiency, but fail to provide a political pathway to distribute these benefits between States with diverse interests.</p>
<p>Solutions for the trans-boundary open ocean require sustainability, value and certainty – not politics.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92508/original/image-20150820-32462-vrohtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unloading fish in the Pacific.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Quentin Hanich</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pacific nations show the value of scarcity</h2>
<p>New markets are required that introduce scarcity values into conservation and turn limits into benefits. International negotiations need to move beyond traditional approaches and adopt innovative measures that create new markets.</p>
<p>A small group of Pacific Island nations are attempting just that, trialling different approaches to managing a crucial part of the world’s tuna supplies.</p>
<p>The Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu are all <a href="http://www.pnatuna.com/HomePage">Parties to the Nauru Agreement</a> (PNA), working together to make fishing for tuna in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (shown in the map below) more sustainable. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92506/original/image-20150820-32454-13b098d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Pacific Ocean, crowded with maritime jurisdictional claims.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q. Hanich & M. Tsamenyi (eds) Navigating Pacific Fisheries: Legal and Policy Trends in the Implementation of International Fisheries Instruments in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean. University of Wollongong. Wollongong, Australia. 2009.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Western and Central Pacific Ocean is home to the world’s most productive tuna fisheries, supplying global markets with skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye, and albacore tunas. These were collectively worth approximately US$5.8 billion in 2014 and accounted for 60% of the global tuna catch.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, like many other global fisheries, overfishing is occurring and a political stalemate is undermining conservation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92513/original/image-20150820-32489-wbz3g8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Quentin Hanich</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pacific Island nations have long been concerned about conservation limits putting a disproportionate burden of conservation action on to small island nations, and unfairly limiting their development aspirations. There was some justification for those concerns. </p>
<p>Previously proposed conservation measures would have directly benefited longstanding distant water fishing fleets, through capacity or catch limits that rewarded historical capacity and catch, while locking out developing nations with no history of overfishing, and potentially no future opportunity. In effect – it would have been the reverse of the polluter pays principle.</p>
<p>The small group of PNA nations control access to the most productive fishing grounds. So they aare a crucial voting bloc within the Western and Central Pacific Fishing Commission – an international treaty based organisation with responsibility over the Western and Central Pacific tuna fisheries.</p>
<p>Given that the PNA member nations arguably own and control access to most of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean tuna fishery, any conservation and management response must be fully supported by these countries and explicitly avoid any disproportionate conservation burden.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nMfrfVc82Uw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>In recent years, the PNA nations have collectively implemented a Vessel Day Scheme that limited access to their productive fisheries and introduced a scarcity value that has dramatically increased benefits. In effect, they have created a new market for ‘fishing days’ and are now trialling auctioning and pooling of days to maximise their benefits.</p>
<p>Next, these countries will need to bring in tighter limits to reduce catches of bigeye tuna to sustainable levels. One of the key impacts on bigeye tuna is the use of fish aggregating devices (FADs) that are set at sea by large-scale <a href="http://iss-foundation.org/purse-seine/">purse seiners</a> (seines are also known dragnets) to target skipjack tuna.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/92509/original/image-20150820-32485-1dwj489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Freshly caught tuna in the Solomon Islands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/theworldfishcenter/19320425646/in/photolist-vrher1-vc8QBX-vc8NiZ-vtWt2p-uj9L1W-5zrpAD-dQwHje-c8ZNd-L77ch-wtSk9-5NPH23-tu1uw1-6pspcN-W8Xms-s2Ezhd-b5f5V-7n8xmu-3iyZ1-cgvi1C-vt4RSh-8gLDhT-b5f65-r5MZDY-3DyZWe-9mY6z3-pdvyTm-fzF7c-bu9aQh-uja7nj-g5x6h-wLqSMY-c8ZN2-c8ZMP-ttKiy-q9cSbR-P8cQk-7VYP7r-985SNE-dSV4no-dQC3qs-6vEKec-bthwgD-9B7yjX-9FAdVQ-6YQhDC-6YQikq-6YLgcZ-6YLgoZ-mdr3E-2gz3v7">Filip Milovac/WorldFish/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While countries involved with distant water fishing have proposed traditional measures that would apply across-the-board restrictions at high cost to the island states, the PNA members have been trialling satellite-based monitoring of FADs at sea. They are also cooperating to begin charging additional fees for the use of FAD sets within their waters, beginning in 2016. </p>
<p>This will create an incentive for purse seiners to set on free swimming schools and reduce FAD sets, and mitigate conservation costs for Pacific island through the additional financial revenue from the licensing fees. </p>
<p>As the scheme settles in, conservation limits can then be implemented to gradually reduce the number of FADs that can be set. This will increase the scarcity value of the FAD set, while decreasing the catch of bigeye tuna to more sustainable levels, and effectively create a new market for ‘FAD sets’.</p>
<p>Innovative management and market solutions will be critical to the sustainable, profitable and equitable future of the global “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-challenge-of-managing-earths-new-economic-frontier-our-oceans-45719">blue economy</a>”. In trans-boundary fisheries, the Pacific is setting the agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quentin Hanich has previously worked for a number of Pacific island delegations, institutions and international organisations on Pacific fisheries. </span></em></p>Over-fishing is a massive environmental and economic challenge. Fortunately, there are new solutions being trialled – including in a tuna hotspot in the Pacific.Quentin Hanich, Associate Professor, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/331902014-11-04T02:42:39Z2014-11-04T02:42:39ZHow would Papua New Guinea deal with Ebola?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63259/original/7hvmtv4j-1414633527.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The country’s capacity to treat infected patients and prevent further spread is very limited.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unwomenasiapacific/8733712499/in/photolist-bvdhNg-cj5VX7-cj5VjC-cj5UcA-cj5V5o-9u6vwG-hjyrPD-hjxpu1-9u3sQv-9u6ucY-9boPNZ-3kTz2K-6TarEV-9GdaV7-9Gagc2-9GagG2-9FMRBP-gSti5m-6vMHXG-6vMJmG-eiLy8B-eiLyip-eiShpj-eiLyg8-eiLyrZ-9Tr7WT-9z2tWV-9u3u4K-3kY5Wd-8WmYaF-b2W5Cc-mRXmX1-a7AoKo-7JJa8E-5nmUg8-eiLymk-eiLxVr-eiLyqi-eiLyuT-eiSgZs-eiSh31-eiLxDP-eiLy1H-eiShi7-eiLxVH-eiLyde-eiLxQR-eiShdb-eiLy6k-eiSgVU">UN Women Asia & the Pacific/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Contemplating how Papua New Guinea (PNG) would deal with Ebola may not be that different from asking the same of Liberia 12 months ago. While PNG’s per capita <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita">gross national income</a> (US$2,540 in 2013) is much higher than Liberia (US$880), there are similarities between their health systems. Each country, for example, has around six doctors for every 100,000 residents.</p>
<p>The Ebola epidemic in West Africa remains out of control, with the cumulative case count doubling every 20 days. As of October 27, the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/">World Health Organization</a> (WHO) reported a <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137376/1/roadmapsitrep_29Oct2014_eng.pdf">total of</a> 13,703 suspected cases and 4,920 deaths. The WHO predicts that there could be as many as 10,000 new Ebola cases per week by December 2014. </p>
<p>As the number of cases increases rapidly, the likelihood of exportation to other countries rises and PNG is not immune, having an international airport with direct flights from at least eight foreign cities. PNG is, of course, Australia’s closest neighbour and the Commonwealth government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-22/deployment-to-asia-pacific-ebola-hotspot-could-take-two-weeks/5832868">says</a> it is preparing to respond to any regional outbreak.</p>
<p>The PNG government has established a <a href="http://www.pngloop.com/2014/10/24/ebola-taskforce-formed/">National Response Technical Taskforce on Ebola</a>. Construction of a quarantine facility at the country’s international airport is underway and a traveller declaration form will be issued at airports where flights to PNG originate. However, the country’s capacity to treat infected patients and prevent further spread is very limited.</p>
<p>PNG’s gross national income has grown more than threefold since 2005 as a result of the resources boom. However, the health system has not kept pace with economic growth. Expenditure on health was just US$114 per capita in 2012, comparable with Sudan. Life expectancy is shorter and infant mortality is higher than most neighbouring Pacific countries.</p>
<p>Many government-run health clinics have closed in recent years due to lack of trained personnel. Availability of basic essential medical supplies in health centres rarely surpassed 60% of requirements between 1999 and 2010. A recent study published in <a href="http://devpolicy.org/pngs-lost-decade-understanding-the-differences-between-health-and-education-20130927/">DevPolicy Blog</a> found an 18% decline in patients utilising a health clinic between 2002 and 2012, despite a 30% increase in the population during that period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63258/original/x5jn73y2-1414633413.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">PNG is already struggling to control other infectious diseases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/compacflt/5770070557">U.S. Pacific Fleet/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The poor capacity of the health system in PNG to control infectious diseases is illustrated by the continuing high transmission of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of highly resistant TB strains. The national rate of new cases of TB is unknown; however, based on data from Western and Gulf Provinces, it may be higher than 700 per 100,000 population, which is among the <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.TBS.INCD">highest in the world</a>. </p>
<p>There has been a rapid increase in drug-resistant TB circulating in communities; for example, in Western Province in 2013, 20% of new TB cases were drug-resistant. An <a href="http://www.wpro.who.int/papuanewguinea/mediacentre/who_review_tb_program/en/">external review</a> of the national TB program early in 2014 found that infection control and isolation facilities were sub-standard in most health facilities.</p>
<p>Another worrying sign of lack of preparedness is the <a href="http://www.wpro.who.int/wpsar/volumes/03/1/2012_PE_Horwood_Greenhill/en/">cholera outbreak</a> that began in July 2009 and was still not under control by mid-2011 by which time there had been 15,500 cases and more than 500 deaths. It is unlikely that PNG health facilities could cope with any number of patients with Ebola, which is much more challenging to treat (and prevent) than cholera.</p>
<p>So, how could Australia help reduce the impact of Ebola if the virus were to arrive in PNG? </p>
<p>Assistance in developing a preparedness plan is the most urgent priority. This plan needs to map out the details of diagnosis, treatment, infection control, contact tracing, surveillance, and public education and identify the resources to implement the plan. In the event of Ebola cases occurring in the country, direct Australian assistance in the form of medical teams, equipment and logistical support may be needed.</p>
<p>It is difficult to know how the Australian government is planning to respond to Ebola outbreaks in the region because there is very little public information available. The aid section of the <a href="http://aid.dfat.gov.au/Pages/home.aspx">DFAT website</a>, for example, makes no reference to Ebola. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ohp-ebola.htm">Department of Health website</a> has information for consumers and health professionals on preparedness in Australia but does not refer to Australia’s potential role in the Asia-Pacific region. Nor is there any reference to Ebola on the website of the National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre in Darwin, which hosts <a href="http://www.nationaltraumacentre.nt.gov.au/what-we-do/disaster-management">Australian Medical Assistance Teams</a> (<a href="http://www.nationaltraumacentre.nt.gov.au/node/148">AUSMAT</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63260/original/qjp6pdzh-1414633664.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s unclear how long it would take Australia to respond to an Ebola outbreak in PNG.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/unwomenasiapacific/8733712401">UN Women Asia & the Pacific?flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On 22 October, the Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Baggoley told a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-22/deployment-to-asia-pacific-ebola-hotspot-could-take-two-weeks/5832868">Senate Estimates Hearing</a> that it would take up to two weeks to train AUSMAT teams before they would be ready to assist in the response to Ebola outbreaks in the region. However, the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-decision-made-to-send-australian-health-workers-to-west-africa-to-fight-ebola-says-health-minister-peter-dutton-20141027-11c8jy.html">health minister Peter Dutton</a> responded by saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A team of 20 is ready to be dispatched to anywhere in the region, possibly Papua New Guinea, if an outbreak occurs nearby. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Based on the recent performance of the health system in PNG, the country is ill-prepared to deal with an outbreak of Ebola. If this should happen, the logical source of external assistance would be Australia. But there is no coherent evidence that Australia is capable of doing so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Toole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Contemplating how Papua New Guinea (PNG) would deal with Ebola may not be that different from asking the same of Liberia 12 months ago. While PNG’s per capita gross national income (US$2,540 in 2013) is…Michael Toole, Professor of International Health, Burnet InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/174072013-08-26T04:32:20Z2013-08-26T04:32:20ZHarming the health of refugees for the sake of stopping boats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29889/original/39nkqrtt-1377482292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both major political parties are so intent on 'stopping the boats' that they have lost sight of their obligations to protect people.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">ROSSBACH/KREPP/AAP IMAGE</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Like many other Australians, I am alarmed by the hardening policy positions on asylum seekers of both major political parties. And today, the Royal Australian College of Physicians (RACP), of which I am president-elect, has released a <a href="http://www.racp.edu.au/index.cfm?objectid=D7FAA694-E371-4AB9-BE41B937879A52E1">public statement</a> about what these policies mean for their health. </p>
<p>Many Australians are concerned about the conditions asylum seekers face while their fate is decided and the impact this will have on their physical and mental health. </p>
<p>Such concerns have been heightened following recent policy announcements by both major parties that aim to put people in detention and resettle them in places where their health will be at risk. </p>
<p>Politicians say they are committed to “stopping the boats” and solving the “asylum seeker issue”. The resulting hard-line approaches to immigration policy may get and retain votes in some sections of the community and contribute to an election win, but at what cost?</p>
<p>While the new measures will ostensibly stop people from drowning on their way to Australia, what about our <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/3b66c2aa10.pdf">international obligations</a> to protect the human rights of individuals, in particular <a href="http://apps.who.int/gb/bd/PDF/bd47/EN/constitution-en.pdf">their right to health</a>?</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.amnesty.org.au/news/comments/30533/">physical and environmental conditions</a> in off-shore detention facilities and regional processing centres will compromise the right to health that people seeking refuge in Australia have.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29896/original/6nstvpmv-1377483003.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Asylum seeker accommodation on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Immigration and Citizenship/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We will see the physical health and mental well-being of thousands of vulnerable people, including children, damaged. Are we all happy to have this sit collectively on the Australian conscience?</p>
<p>The RACP is calling on the next government to adhere to its international obligations and show respect for health as a basic human right, especially for this vulnerable group. </p>
<h2>Dangers on the ground</h2>
<p>Asylum seekers detained in off-shore detention facilities and regional processing centres located on Manus Island and Nauru are exposed to multiple environmental and infrastructure deficiencies that put their health at risk.</p>
<p>Papua New Guinea has endemic <a href="http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_png_en.pdf">malaria</a>, with over 100 cases for every 1,000 people and 430 deaths in confirmed cases every year. </p>
<p>Clearly, this presents a significant risk to the health of the people we’re sending over there. Especially because standard environmental avoidance measures, such as repellent sprays, treated mosquito nets and staying inside after dusk, are difficult in temporary accommodation settings. </p>
<p>And there are no options for malaria prevention in very young infants who, along with pregnant women, are at highest risk for malarial disease.</p>
<p>The immunisation schedules in <a href="http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/countries?countrycriteria%5Bcountry%5D%5B%5D=PNG">Papua New Guinea</a> and <a href="http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/countries?countrycriteria%5Bcountry%5D%5B%5D=NRU">Nauru</a> don’t include key illnesses such as mumps, varicella (chicken pox), human papilloma virus or pneumococcal vaccines as recommended by the <a href="http://www.immunise.health.gov.au/internet/immunise/publishing.nsf/Content/nips-ctn">Australian Immunisation Schedule</a>. </p>
<p>And large numbers of people living in close proximity presents a real risk for transmission of vaccine preventable diseases.</p>
<p>Close living conditions will also amplify the risk of tuberculosis infection; <a href="https://extranet.who.int/sree/Reports?op=Replet&name=%2FWHO_HQ_Reports%2FG2%2FPROD%2FEXT%2FTBCountryProfile&ISO2=PG&LAN=EN&outtype=html">multi-drug resistant tuberculosis</a> is a serious concern in Papua New Guinea. </p>
<p>People sent to both <a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/papua-new-guinea">Papua New Guinea</a> and <a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/nauru">Nauru</a> are also at risk of dengue fever, typhoid fever, hepatitis A and other water-borne infections.</p>
<p>There are major challenges to delivering adequate health services, mental-health care, child-health screening, and providing <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/2552945/upload_binary/2552945.pdf;fileType=application/pdf">medical accountability</a> and <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/2552945/upload_binary/2552945.pdf;fileType=application/pdf">access to clean drinking water</a> (particularly on <a href="http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/asylum-seekers-everywhere-but-not-a-drop-to-drink/397/">Nauru</a>) for the people we place there.</p>
<h2>Steps in the right direction</h2>
<p>There are also complex issues around equity and different standards of health care and services for refugees compared to citizens of Papua New Guinea and Nauru, particularly children.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29897/original/xhymdzzj-1377483217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">File footage of the federal government’s offshore detention centre in Nauru.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of Immigration and Citizenship/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, children and adolescents seeking asylum are <a href="http://journals.lww.com/co-psychiatry/Abstract/2012/07000/Children_and_young_people_in_immigration_detention.6.aspx">particularly vulnerable</a> to the <a href="https://www.humanrights.gov.au/last-resort-report-national-inquiry-children-immigration-2004">effects of detention</a>. </p>
<p>The detention of children is contrary to Australia’s obligation to uphold <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">the rights of the child</a>. To ensure Australia adheres to these obligations, the RACP statement is calling for the incoming government to take the following steps:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>increase the capacity for placing children or adolescents and their families in community residence, and make this the standard model of care for all children. Under no circumstances should children be separated from their families;</p></li>
<li><p>no children are to be held in regional processing centres on Manus Island and Nauru;</p></li>
<li><p>immediately transfer children seeking asylum and their families to a community setting;</p></li>
<li><p>establish an independent mechanism for the oversight and management of health-care services available in off-shore detention facilities and regional processing centres; and</p></li>
<li><p>undertake immediate and sustained efforts to improve the efficacy and speed of the assessment process for all detainees to eliminate prolonged detention.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Most of the discussion and debate around asylum seekers during this election campaign has been about the rights of asylum seekers to permanently settle in Australia. Let’s not forget about their basic human rights, particularly their right to health.</p>
<p>The government’s approach to processing asylum seekers is an immigration decision but ensuring their health is an issue of rights. The two positions are not, and must not be, mutually exclusive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Talley is President-Elect of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, and a fellow of the Royal College of Physicians (both London and Edinburgh) and the American College of Physicians.</span></em></p>Like many other Australians, I am alarmed by the hardening policy positions on asylum seekers of both major political parties. And today, the Royal Australian College of Physicians (RACP), of which I am…Nicholas Talley, Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research (Acting) and Pro Vice-Chancellor, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/165022013-08-01T20:01:32Z2013-08-01T20:01:32ZSpies, Zionist agents and the ‘PNG solution’: Australia through Indonesian eyes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/28462/original/nyrnj3qq-1375313701.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Relations between Australia and Indonesia may become strained as allegations of spying and failure to follow protocol on the Australian side are released.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Mark Irham</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd’s so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-asylum-in-australia-for-those-arriving-by-boat-rudd-16238">“PNG solution”</a> to the asylum seeker issue has attracted much comment from within both Australia and Papua New Guinea. It has also stirred the pot in Indonesia, but to a much lesser extent. It clearly isn’t the dominant Australia-linked issue playing out currently in Jakarta.</p>
<p>The consideration it has received has focused – not surprisingly – on how the strategy impacts on Indonesia’s interests.</p>
<p>For a <a href="http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/rudd/before-office.aspx">former diplomat</a>, Rudd has been remarkably clumsy in handling foreign affairs. In this case, he seems to have switched from support for a regional approach to the asylum seeker issue – in which he had strong support from Indonesia <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-turn-in-the-australian-indonesian-relationship-15851">as recently as last month</a> – to what many in Indonesia see as a unilateral approach, agreed with PNG. If the PNG strategy works, where would that leave the regional arrangement approach to which President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has publicly attached his name?</p>
<p>There is also a worry that the strategy would potentially leave several thousand would-be asylum seekers in Indonesia with their preferred exit door closed. Given the painfully slow pace with which refugee determinations take place in Indonesia, they could be there for a long time – the last thing Indonesia wants.</p>
<p>And Australia’s megaphone call for Indonesia to deny Iranians visas-on-arrival didn’t make things easier either. The request was complied with, but <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/07/19/indonesia-stop-visas-arrival-iranians.html">government officials stressed</a> that the action was taken because Iranians were involved in the drug trade as well as immigration violations, rather than because of Australia’s intervention. </p>
<p>It is these kinds of concerns which have produced the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/sby-cool-on-rudds-unilateral-approach/story-fn9hm1gu-1226685256350">reportedly “cool”</a> response from SBY to Rudd’s plan. There may well have been formal communication of the plan, but simply telling someone what you are going to do is not the same thing as genuinely consulting them, seeking their views and advice. </p>
<p>No doubt there was also some nodding of heads in Jakarta when Fijian Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/fiji-anger-as-first-plane-to-manus-set-for-takeoff-20130729-2qu3g.html">described the Australian policy</a> as “inconsiderate, prescriptive, high-handed and arrogant”. Less welcome, though, would have been Kubuabola’s call to exclude the asylum seekers from the Pacific region on the grounds that they were Muslims whereas Melanesians were overwhelmingly Christian.</p>
<p>But overall, official reactions in Jakarta have been muted, at least in public.</p>
<p>However there have been two other stories featuring Australia which have featured in the Indonesian media, both of which have attracted more attention that the asylum-seeker issue – and made that issue even more complicated.</p>
<p>One is the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rudd-given-g20-indon-spy-report-20130725-2qneu.html">allegation</a> that British intelligence tapped the electronic communications of several Asian leaders, including SBY, at a G20 meeting in London in 2009: the story was originally reported in the Sydney Morning Herald. The suggestion is that the information gathered was passed on to Australia for use in its bid for a seat on the United Nations Security Council.</p>
<p>The Indonesian government has been publicly playing down these allegations, suggesting that their veracity needs to be checked. </p>
<p>But some individual Indonesian politicians have picked up the issue vigorously, calling on Australia to apologise for its actions. They argue that the incident shows – again – that Australia does not sufficiently respect Indonesia’s sovereignty and national significance.</p>
<p>One such politician is the Golkar Party’s Tantowi Yahya. Before entering parliament in 2009, he had made his reputation as a country and western singer, and television presenter fronting shows such as So You Want To Be A Millionaire? and Deal or No Deal: Indonesia. In Indonesian parlance, he was a “selebriti”, a profession which is an increasing source of national and regional politicians.</p>
<p>Of late, Tantowi has been the go-to Indonesian politician on the asylum seeker issue for many Australian journalists. Therefore, under the sub-heading “Indonesia slams Rudd”, the Sydney Morning Herald <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unhcr-troubled-by-png-solution-20130726-2qo8c.html">quoted</a> Tantowi as saying about the PNG strategy: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The first thing that your country or the Prime Minister should contact is the minister of foreign affairs. And I’ve spoken with the minister a day after the announcement; he said he doesn’t know anything about it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This sounds dramatic – and Tantowi would have felt flattered at being seen as speaking for the country as a whole. But Tantowi has been in the news for another reason: his <a href="http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/golkar-lawmaker-under-fire-for-secret-israel-visit/">recent visit</a> to Israel.</p>
<p>Indonesia and Israel have no diplomatic relations. Members of the Indonesian parliament are not supposed to visit the “Israeli Zionist Colonialist State”, as more than one commentator has labelled it. And here’s the Australia connection: Tantowi has explained that his visit to Israel was at the invitation of the “Australian-Jewish Association”.</p>
<p>So: Australia has been spying on SBY, and has been seducing Indonesian politicians into visiting Israel. Against those two charges, it’s hardly surprising perhaps that Rudd’s PNG strategy for asylum seekers has attracted relatively little attention. Australia’s issues, we need to keep reminding ourselves, are not always Indonesia’s issues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd’s so-called “PNG solution” to the asylum seeker issue has attracted much comment from within both Australia and Papua New Guinea. It has also stirred the pot in Indonesia…Colin Brown, Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/163132013-07-29T20:04:13Z2013-07-29T20:04:13ZFactCheck: can children under seven be sent to Manus Island?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/28383/original/z587bsvp-1375228600.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Asylum seeker children who have tried to get to Australia by boat since the PNG agreement was announced will be sent to Manus Island.</span> </figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p><strong>“You cannot send children aged under seven to Manus Island because of the issues of inoculation - you can’t do it.” - Opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison, <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/07/21/tony-abbott-transcript-kevin-rudd%E2%80%99s-border-protection-failures-0?utm_source=Liberal+Party+E-news&utm_campaign=558240e1c9-Why+Mr+Rudd%27s+latest+pre-election+fix+won%27t+work&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_51af948dc8-558240e1c9-57629769">press conference</a>, 21 July.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Scott Morrison has led the criticism of the lack of practical detail in the <a href="http://www.immi.gov.au/visas/humanitarian/novisa/regional-arrangements.pdf">two-page asylum seeker agreement</a> between Australia and Papua New Guinea, questioning how the Rudd government plans to safely process potentially thousands of people, including children, on Manus Island and other yet-to-be determined sites.</p>
<p>Morrison has repeatedly raised concerns about protecting young children’s health, <a href="http://www.scottmorrison.com.au/info/speech.aspx?id=701&page=1">asking on ABC Radio</a> if the Rudd government was “going to ignore the medical advice that says you can’t send children to a place under age seven who need to be inoculated against tropical diseases”.</p>
<p><em>Election FactCheck</em> contacted Morrison’s office about the source for the claim. “This was information conveyed to Mr Morrison by officials during his visit to Manus Island earlier this year,” a spokesman said.</p>
<h2>Health checks for asylum seekers</h2>
<p>Asylum seekers are vaccinated under the Australian schedule before being sent to offshore processing centres. The Immigration Department told <em>Election FactCheck</em> that all asylum seekers receive a physical and mental check-up and a chest x-ray. A blood sample is also collected, but which tests were done was not specified.</p>
<p>Asylum seekers receive the following vaccinations, and further boosters once on Manus Island if necessary: Hepatitis B; Diptheria; Tetanus; Pertussis (whooping cough); Polio; Meningococcal C; Measles; Mumps; Rubella and Influenza. If an X-ray detects tuberculosis, it is treated in Australia.</p>
<p>Asylum seekers also receive Malarone, a tablet treatment to prevent malaria, a mosquito-borne infectious disease which is prevalent in parts of Papua New Guinea, including Manus Island.</p>
<h2>Malaria</h2>
<p>Without more information from Morrison’s office, it is difficult to say exactly what he means by his statement, but he may be referring to the practice of the Immigration Department under the Labor government not to send children under seven to Manus Island due to concerns about malaria, for which there is no vaccine.</p>
<p>The national communications manager for the Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Sandi Logan, told <em>Election FactCheck</em> that until now, the government has sent no children under seven to Manus Island because of a “conservative” approach to malaria health risks.</p>
<p>The World Health Organisation recommends that no child weighing less than five kilograms should receive Malorone. Babies generally weigh less than five kilograms and a seven-year-old child is normally around twenty kilograms. But Labor’s conservative approach has meant that no babies and no child under seven have been sent.</p>
<p>WHO also recommends that pregnant women should not receive Malorone until the second trimester of pregnancy, but it is understood that, so far, no pregnant woman has been sent to Manus Island.</p>
<p>Unless there are exemptions - and the <a href="http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/transcript-joint-press-conference-2">government to date has said</a> that all asylum seekers who arrive by boat would be sent to PNG and had “no chance” of settlement in Australia - it will mean a significant shift in policy, with children under seven being sent to Manus Island for the first time.</p>
<p>Children over seven were sent prior to the PNG deal being announced on July 19, but recently have been removed to Christmas Island, and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-04/remaining-child-asylum-seekers-leave-manus-island/4799650">government has indicated</a> that family groups won’t be sent until a suitable facility has been built. </p>
<p>Morrison is correct in raising health risks in children as a concern, but may have confused the issue by using the word “inoculation” - which is generally understood to mean vaccination. Treatment for malaria is not through inoculation. </p>
<p>It <em>is</em> possible to successfully vaccinate and otherwise protect young children against common tropical diseases with relatively modest resources. Despite the enormous challenges of vaccine delivery in a country where nearly 90% of the population live in rural and remote areas, the country has <a href="http://endtheneglect.org/2013/05/papua-new-guinea-successfully-integrates-five-essential-maternal-and-child-health-services/">achieved high vaccine coverage rates</a>. </p>
<p>There is no reason to believe that in a controlled environment of a refugee camp there would be anything other than total vaccination coverage. Other effective preventative measures which should be provided include insecticide-treated bed-nets, protective clothing, and mosquito control measures around camps.</p>
<h2>Tuberculosis</h2>
<p>Malaria is not the only health risk throughout PNG, particularly in low-lying regions.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wvi.org/papua-new-guinea/article/png-tackling-tb-head-through-strong-partnership">Tuberculosis rates in Papua New Guinea are high</a>. Effective diagnosis, treatment and contact tracing is a pre-requisite to control the spread of this disease.</p>
<p>A young child sent to a crowded detention centre is at risk of contracting TB, unless housed amongst adults who have been fully screened and treated. If the PNG Solution goes ahead, many refugees and their families may be resettled in communities in PNG, and they will then be exposed to a population where TB rates are high. BCG vaccination prevents some of the complications of TB and is part of the PNG vaccine schedule. It should be given before they go to PNG.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>A child sent to Papua New Guinea faces greater risks of disease than in Australia. However, it <em>is</em> possible to successfully vaccinate and otherwise protect young children against common tropical diseases with relatively modest resources, especially in the controlled environment of a refugee camp.</p>
<p>The government has indicated that prior to the PNG deal, no child under seven was sent to Manus Island for health reasons and the public should be assured that camps are safe before this happens. This does not only include vaccination programs (which should be achievable and do not represent an impediment to the policy) but more comprehensive public health measures to prevent the spread of diseases against which there are no vaccinations. We should not forget that there are around a million children in this age group who already live in PNG.</p>
<p>Scott Morrison’s concerns are well founded, but not for the reasons of “issues of inoculation”.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>PNG has among the highest rates of morbidity and mortality from malaria outside the African continent. Despite considerable reductions in malaria prevalence in the last decade in PNG, mostly through the use of insecticide-treated bed nets, malaria is still in the top three causes of hospital admission amongst children. </p>
<p>Young children are particularly susceptible to malaria; infants are more prone to severe complications of malaria, including severe anaemia, seizures, coma and death. The risk is highest among children who have no immunity to malaria, particularly those who come from countries where malaria is not endemic. </p>
<p>Although as the author notes, it is possible to successfully vaccinate or otherwise protect young children against some common tropical diseases with relatively modest resources, refugee children detained in PNG will be at risk of other diseases for which there are no effective or widely available vaccinations, and for which illness among young children can be severe or fatal, such as malaria. </p>
<p>Morrison’s statement that children under seven could not be sent to Manus Island due to “issues of inoculation” is partly correct if one interprets this as meaning not all diseases that children may be exposed to in Manus Island are prevented by vaccines.</p>
<p>Potential health risks for children in Manus Island for which no vaccines are widely available or effective include malaria, dengue fever, dysentery and, in some parts of PNG, cholera. These are health risks faced to a greater or lesser extent by PNG’s children in many area of the country. Most of these infections are preventable by good public health measures, vaccines, adequate nutrition, insecticide-treated bed-nets, and having a healthy environment for children to grow up in.</p>
<p>I would also note that the health risks for refugee children are broader than infectious diseases and include serious psychological problems, impaired development, or physical or sexual abuse if the environment of a detention centre is volatile, violent or lacking hope.</p>
<p>The policy of the Immigration Department not to send children under seven on Manus Island is a good, cautious policy, because babies and young children who come from an area where there is low prevelance of malaria are particularly susceptible to a severe case of the disease if it is contracted early in life. It is a cavalier attitude to change this policy on many levels, not just for malaria. It is potentially putting a child’s health at risk. <strong>- Trevor Duke</strong></p>
<p><div class="callout">The Conversation is fact checking political statements in the lead-up to this year’s federal election. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert reviews an anonymous copy of the article.Request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Centre for International Child Health at the University of Melbourne has received funds from AusAID through the Knowledge Hubs for Health Initiative and is a recipient of a grant from the RE Ross Trust Victoria for support to child health in Papua New Guinea.
Trevor Duke is a member of the Child Health Advisory Committee for the National Department of Health in Papua New Guinea, and Adjuct Professor of Child Health in the School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of PNG.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John McBride does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“You cannot send children aged under seven to Manus Island because of the issues of inoculation - you can’t do it.” - Opposition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison, press conference, 21 July. Scott Morrison…John McBride, Professor of Medicine at the Cairns Base Hospital clinical school, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/162382013-07-19T08:31:42Z2013-07-19T08:31:42ZNo more asylum in Australia for those arriving by boat: Rudd<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27747/original/t8969z33-1374218438.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Rudd has announced sweeping changes to asylum policy, headlined by refugees who arrive by boat will no longer be resettled in Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Asylum seekers who arrive in Australian waters by boat will no longer have the chance to be settled in Australia under new policies <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudd-to-send-asylum-seekers-who-arrive-on-boats-to-papua-new-guinea-20130719-2q9fa.html">announced</a> by prime minister Kevin Rudd.</p>
<p>Instead, asylum seekers arriving by boat will be held in an expanded facility at Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island and those who are found to be genuine refugees will be settled in PNG, under an <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/154679801/JOINT-MEDIA-RELEASE-AUSTRALIA-AND-PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA-REGIONAL-SETTLEMENT-ARRANGEMENT">agreement</a> with the PNG government.</p>
<p>Announcing the changes, Rudd admitted it is “a very hardline decision”.</p>
<p>The Conversation spoke to experts for their response to Rudd’s announcement.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sara Davies, Senior Research Fellow, International Relations at Griffith University</strong></p>
<p>Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd and PNG prime minister Peter O'Neill’s statement on the Refugee Resettlement Arrangement (RRA) is a new chapter for how signatory states (and non-signatory states observing this development) interpret their obligations vis-a-vis the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. A wealthy, developed country such as Australia has justified transferring its asylum seeking population to a neighbouring country that is ranked by the World Bank as a Lower Middle Income country with outstanding <a>challenges</a> in the provision of improved living standards for its population. </p>
<p>Historically, under the implementation of the 1951 Convention, the burden sharing role was reversed. For example, under the 1989 Comprehensive Plan for Assessment (CPA), the Asia Pacific region developed a regional framework where developing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia hosted Indochinese asylum seekers until they were (UNHCR) processed and then resettled in countries such as Australia, Canada, and France. Could this switch of roles regarding sovereign responsibility and generosity under the international refugee resettlement scheme may become a strong feature in the proposed international conference on burden sharing that Rudd has suggested to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon?</p>
<p>Rudd has suggested that, as a gesture of goodwill, his government would be willing to consider Australia further increasing its humanitarian intake (beyond the 27,000 suggested by the <a>Expert Panel on Asylum Seekers</a>) at his proposed international conference. The need for developing countries to stop “passing the parcel”, as Rudd termed the protracted refugee situation in the press conference, should be met by long term endurable commitments to global burden sharing by all developing and developed states. The UNHCR processing centres - central conduit for refugee status determination and resettlement - has been globally undermined by the people smuggling model, Rudd said. But people smugglers have flourished because states do not want to share sustainable refugee status determination, protection and resettlement obligations; UNHCR is as strong as its member states allow it to be.</p>
<p>The complete abrogation of responsibility on Australia’s part to accept asylum seekers contrasts with Papua New Guinea agreement to, subject to annual review of the RRA and assistance provided to sustain the RRA, drop all reservations to the 1951 Convention. This is perilous terrain for the UNHCR - it will be vital to hear the High Commissioner’s response.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jonathan Schultz, Researcher in Political Science at University of Melbourne</strong></p>
<p>The announcement that Australia will transfer not only the detention but the final settlement of refugees to PNG follows an unfortunate pattern of making use of its former colony in pursuit of purely Australian objectives. While PNG faces a refugee problem of its own from neighbouring Indonesian-controlled West Papua, today’s agreement only covers those asylum seekers transferred from Australia.</p>
<p>PNG is wildly unsuitable as a resettlement location for refugees. Its Melanesian society, composed of over 800 distinct language groups underpinned by attachment to land, leaves little room for landless newcomers. Its indicators of human development, among the worst in the world, are testament to the difficulties that it faces in the contemporary world. It beggars belief that, with all the best intentions and backed by Australian financial resources, PNG will be able to provide adequate support for resettled refugees.</p>
<p>The fact that the Rudd government was able to conclude this agreement with PNG speaks volumes about the relationship between the two countries. Successive Australian governments have invoked the language of partnership while viewing the relationship through the lens of immediate Australian strategic and commercial interests. Today’s agreement surpasses the initial 2001 “Pacific Solution” in its cynical subordination of the PNG’s struggles to Australian electoral politics.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Andrew Jakubowicz, Professor of Sociology and Codirector of Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Research Centre at University of Technology, Sydney</strong></p>
<p>Given the prohibition situation that the government is trying to move through, the next step has to be effective alternative points and real options for asylum application along the routes to safety. Otherwise the smugglers will look for alternative access points across Australia’s north, amplifying danger and likelihood of violence and death. </p>
<p>Critical too will be the quality of opportunity for positive settlement in PNG. PNG is very close to Australia: at low water you can walk in, and the Tiwi Islands could become a very porous border. Meanwhile in Australia a criminal underground provides false identities - not asylum but maybe a sort of safety. And Afghanistan, Pakistan and points east and west are going to become very dangerous real soon now. At least Kevin Rudd recognises this is a first step, but the business model isn’t dead yet.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Alison Gerard, Senior Lecturer in Justice Studies at Charles Sturt University</strong></p>
<p>Prime minister Kevin Rudd’s “Pacific Solution #3” is irreconcilable with our international refugee obligations. Like other proposals put forward by this government, it is likely to be robustly contested in court as a breach of basic human rights. Internationally, it stands out as one of the most reactive and punitive asylum seeker policies, lacking in both compassion and a sophisticated understanding of migration in the Asia Pacific.</p>
<p>The workability of this framework is doubtful. It will rely on the cooperation of a web of other countries across the region to volunteer to resettle asylum seekers who have legally arrived in Australia, a notoriously difficult diplomatic task.</p>
<p>This policy supposedly targets people smuggling operations. In the past we have seen people smuggling operations capably shift and adapt to new border security measures introduced by governments. While ever the need to leave one’s country of origin exists, and safer means of travelling directly are restricted (primarily by the use of strict visa requirements barring entry to those from asylum seeker source countries such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Burma, Sri Lanka, Somalia), people smuggling operations will remain a constant and lucrative part of the migration industry.</p>
<p>Expanding operations in the tiny pacific island of Papua New Guinea will grow an industry based on what the UNHCR [United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees] have described as “arbitrary detention”. Current reports suggest that the processing of claims is slow. We know that these conditions of protracted legal uncertainty have an impact on the physical and mental health of asylum seekers.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Azadeh Dastyari, Associate of the Castan Centre for Human Rights Law, Lecturer in the Faculty of Law at Monash University at Monash University</strong></p>
<p>Today’s announcement is perhaps harsher than any asylum policy we have had in our recent history. It attempts to achieve what the Howard government’s Pacific Solution could not: that is, to ensure that no refugees are in fact resettled in Australia. Whether it can achieve this aim is a big question. The success of Australia’s plan relies on the ability of PNG to resettle large numbers of refugees. Given PNG’s relative poverty and inte rnational challenges, this will be no easy task. It seems unrealistic to assume that the so called RRA [Regional Resettlement Agreement] can be a sustainable solution to Australia’s refugee “problem”.</p>
<p>The difference between the RRA and the Howard era “Pacific Solution” as it operated in Nauru is that PNG is a signatory to the UNU refugee convention, where as prior to 2011 Nauru was not. The announcement that PNG would withdraw its reservations with regards to wage earning employment (Article 17:1), housing (Article 21), public education (Article 22:1), freedom of movement (Article 31), expulsion (Article 32) and the facilitation of the naturalisation of refugees (Article 34) is a welcome development. PNG must ensure that it abides by its entire set of obligations under the refugee convention and other human rights instruments.</p>
<p>What was not discussed adequately in the announcement is the continuing policy of mandatory immigration detention on Manus Island. Both Australia and PNG are signatories to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and under article 9 of that convention are required to refrain from arbitrary detention. Immigration detention, as it currently exists on Manus Island, is in violation of article 9 of the ICCPR. </p>
<p>We also know, from UNHCR reports, that the detention facility in Manus Island is “harsh” and inhumane. So inhumane and unacceptable in fact, that as acknowledged in the announcement by the Minister for Immigration, children have recently been removed from the centre. Rudd said that they would need to respond to the UNHCR but there is no reason to believe that conditions in the detention facility can be improved to allow the return of children given the isolation of the centre and the lack of support to detainees. </p>
<p>In any case, the policy of mandatory immigration detention should be abandoned entirely if Australia and PNG are serious about compliance with their international obligations.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Kerry Murphy, Lecturer, Migration Law Program at Australian National University</strong></p>
<p>The Rudd plan for asylum seekers arriving by boat is effectively Australia subcontracting its obligations under the refugee convention to a poor, developing Pacific country in order to resolve a domestic political impasse. All new arrivals by boat will be sent to PNG for assessment of their claims, and if successful, they will be resettled in PNG.</p>
<p>Whilst PNG is a signatory to the refugee convention, it is not a transit country and not really a resettlement country. The subcontracting of our obligations is a concern because it means that developed countries can pay poor countries to take over their international obligations.</p>
<p>Already most refugees live in poorer under-developed countries, and a minority are resettled in the developed countries. Already around 1.8 million refugees from Syria are registered in neighbouring countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Jordan has cared for thousands of Iraqis over the years, as well as a large Palestinian refugee population. Jordan cannot subcontract responsibility for the large numbers of Syrians now arriving.</p>
<p>PNG is heavily under-resourced for this task, lacking basic services for many of their own population. Does the money spent on paying PNG to process the asylum seekers count as foreign aid to PNG?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16238/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Jakubowicz receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a linkage project on cyber-racism.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Murphy is in private practice as a solicitor doing migration cases.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Davies receives funding from Australian Government (AusAID grant in partnership with University of Queensland) and has received funding from Australia Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Gerard, Azadeh Dastyari, and Jonathan Schultz do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Asylum seekers who arrive in Australian waters by boat will no longer have the chance to be settled in Australia under new policies announced by prime minister Kevin Rudd. Instead, asylum seekers arriving…Alison Gerard, Associate Professor in Law, Charles Sturt UniversityAndrew Jakubowicz, Professor of Sociology, University of Technology SydneyAzadeh Dastyari, Deputy Director of the Castan Centre for Human Rights Law, Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Law, Monash UniversityJonathan Schultz, Researcher in Political Science, The University of MelbourneKerry Murphy, Lecturer, Migration Law Program, Australian National UniversitySara Davies, ARC Future Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.