tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/public-opinion-8528/articlesPublic opinion – The Conversation2024-03-12T12:32:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226802024-03-12T12:32:40Z2024-03-12T12:32:40ZClimate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581053/original/file-20240311-20-u3utg3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young people demonstrate ahead of a climate summit in New York in September 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participants-seen-holding-signs-at-the-protest-ahead-of-the-news-photo/1675097127?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you ask American voters what their top issues are, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">most will point</a> to kitchen-table issues like the economy, inflation, crime, health care or education. </p>
<p>Fewer than 5% of respondents in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys</a> said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country. </p>
<p>Despite this, research <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">that I conducted with my colleages</a> suggests that concern about climate change has had a significant effect on voters’ choices in the past two presidential elections. Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor. This was the conclusion of <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/10494414">an analysis</a> of polling data that we published on Jan. 17, 2024, through the University of Colorado’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/centers/center-social-and-environmental-futures-c-sef">Center for Social and Environmental Futures</a>. </p>
<p>What explains these results, and what effect might climate change have on the 2024 election?</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Joe Biden wears a blue suit and stands on a stage in front of a screen that says 'historic climate action.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581057/original/file-20240311-18-h6musu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks about his administration’s work to combat climate change on Nov. 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-arrives-to-speak-about-his-news-photo/1782480738?adppopup=true">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Measuring climate change’s effect on elections</h2>
<p>We used 2016 and 2020 survey data from the nonpartisan organization <a href="https://www.voterstudygroup.org/data">Voter Study Group</a> to analyze the relationships between thousands of voters’ presidential picks in the past two elections with their demographics and their opinions on 22 different issues, including climate change. </p>
<p>The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” </p>
<p>In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016. Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. This suggests that climate change opinion has been providing the Democrats with a growing electoral advantage. </p>
<p>Using two different statistical models, we estimated that climate change opinion could have shifted the 2020 national popular vote margin (Democratic vote share minus Republican vote share) by 3% or more toward Biden. Using an Electoral College model, we estimated that a 3% shift would have been large enough to change the election outcome in his favor.</p>
<p>These patterns echo the results of a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/one-year-election-day-republicans-perceived-better-handling-economy">November 2023 poll</a>. This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.</p>
<h2>What might explain the effect of climate change on voting</h2>
<p>So, if most voters – <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx">even Democrats</a> – do not rank climate change as their top issue, how could climate change opinion have tipped the 2020 presidential election? </p>
<p>Our analysis could not answer this question directly, but here are three educated guesses:</p>
<p>First, recent presidential elections have been extremely close. This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes. In 2020, Biden <a href="https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020">won Georgia</a> by about 10,000 votes – 0.2% of the votes cast – and he won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes, 0.6% of votes cast. </p>
<p>Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue. The scientific evidence for climate change being real <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">is so strong</a> that if a candidate were to deny the basic science of climate change, some moderate voters might wonder whether to trust that candidate in general. </p>
<p>Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change. For example, <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/">there is strong evidence</a> that climate change affects health, national security, the economy and immigration patterns in the U.S. and around the world. </p>
<h2>Where the candidates stand</h2>
<p>Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-presidential-candidates-stand-climate-change/story?id=103313379">has previously called</a> climate change a “hoax.”</p>
<p>In 2017, Trump <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/on-the-u-s-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement/">withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement</a>, an international treaty that legally commits countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">Biden reversed</a> that decision in 2021.</p>
<p>While in office, Trump rolled back <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-environment/trump-climate-environment-protections/">125 environmental rules and policies</a> aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">these regulations hurt</a> businesses.</p>
<p>Biden has restored <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-restores-federal-environmental-regulations-scaled-back-by-trump">many of these regulations</a>. He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/climate/sec-climate-disclosure-regulations.html">requirement for businesses</a> to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Biden has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684">also signed</a> <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346">three major</a> laws that <a href="https://rmi.org/climate-innovation-investment-and-industrial-policy/">each provides</a> tens of <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text">billions in annual spending</a> to address climate change. Two of those laws were bipartisan.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">has also become</a> the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, and the largest exporter of natural gas, during Biden’s term.</p>
<p>In the current campaign, Trump has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/second-trump-presidency-would-axe-biden-climate-agenda-gut-energy-regulators-2024-02-16/">promised to eliminate</a> subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to increase domestic fossil fuel production and to roll back environmental regulations. In practice, some of these efforts <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313">could face opposition</a> from congressional Republicans, in addition to Democrats. </p>
<p>Public <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/climate/biden-climate-campaign.html">opinion varies</a> on particular <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2900823/poll-pennsylvania-voters-reject-biden-lng-pause/">climate policies</a> that <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">Biden has enacted</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, doing something about climate change remains much more popular than doing nothing. For example, a <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-politics-policy-fall-2023/toc/4/">November 2023 Yale survey</a> found 57% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports action on global warming over a candidate who opposes action. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people march and wave banners and flags in front of the US Capitol building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581059/original/file-20240311-24-r7rd1z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">People march from the U.S. Capitol to the White House protesting former President Donald Trump’s environmental policies in April 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-march-from-the-u-s-capitol-to-the-white-house-for-news-photo/674864930?adppopup=true">Astrid Riecken/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What this means for 2024</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10494414">Our study</a> found that between the 2016 and the 2020 presidential elections, climate change became increasingly important to voters, and the importance voters assign to climate change became increasingly predictive of voting for the Democrats. If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.</p>
<p>Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election. For example, our study estimated that climate change gave the Democrats an advantage in 2016, and yet Trump still won that election because of other issues. Immigration <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx">is currently the top issue</a> for a plurality of voters, and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">recent national polls</a> suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden. </p>
<p>Although a majority of voters currently prefer the Democrats’ climate stances, this need not always be true. For example, Democrats <a href="https://www.arcdigital.media/p/a-bipartisan-climate-playbook-is">risk losing voters</a> when their policies <a href="https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy">impose economic costs</a>, or when they are framed as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/240725/democrats-positive-socialism-capitalism.aspx">anti-capitalist</a>, <a href="https://osf.io/tdkf3">racial</a>, or <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-we-will-fight-climate-change">overly pessimistic</a>. Some Republican-backed climate policies, <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/bpc-morning-consult-poll-finds-voters-support-permitting-reform-61-to-13/">like trying to speed up</a> renewable energy projects, are popular.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, if the election were held today, the totality of evidence suggests that most voters would prefer a climate-conscious candidate, and that most climate-conscious voters currently prefer a Democrat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder. </span></em></p>Research shows that climate change had a significant effect on voting choices in the 2016 and 2020 elections – and could also influence the 2024 presidential race.Matt Burgess, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2222332024-02-21T13:24:18Z2024-02-21T13:24:18ZYoung people are lukewarm about Biden – and giving them more information doesn’t move the needle much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576872/original/file-20240220-16-qvln0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young voters in Ann Arbor, Mich., fill out applications to cast their ballot in the midterm elections in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/zachary-rose-fills-out-an-application-to-cast-his-ballot-news-photo/1244584443?adppopup=true">Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent polling for the November 2024 election shows that President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/19/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">December 2023 poll</a> showed that 49% of young people supported former President Donald Trump, while just 43% of 18- to 29-year-olds said they preferred Biden. </p>
<p>Biden is even struggling with young people who identify as Democrats. A <a href="https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023">Fall 2023 Harvard Kennedy School</a> poll shows that just 62% of Democrats aged 18 to 29 years old said they would vote for Biden in 2024. </p>
<p>Many Democrats are <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4138154-democrats-worry-young-people-souring-on-party/">increasingly anxious</a> that young voters who <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results">supported Biden in 2020</a> will boycott the general election in 2024, support a third-party candidate or <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election">vote for Trump</a>. </p>
<p>Polls this far from Election Day are <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/variable-abs.shtml">notoriously variable</a> and not reliable for predicting election results. Furthermore, some political pundits are asking whether young voters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/upshot/poll-biden-young-voters.html">will return to the Biden coalition</a> once the campaign season heats up and they learn more about the two candidates. </p>
<p>As scholars of <a href="https://neilobrian.com">public opinion</a> and the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J4Vp11wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">U.S. presidency</a>, we are deeply interested in the prospect of young voters, particularly Democrats, defecting from the Biden coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young, white woman with brown hair wearing shorts and a beige cardigan walks past a bulletin board with flyers on it for vioting." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576870/original/file-20240220-28-6gi2uw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An Emory University student in Atlanta walks past voting information in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-woman-walks-past-voting-information-flyers-on-the-news-photo/1244204334?adppopup=true">Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Mixed evidence on young voters’ support for Biden</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/">51% of young voters</a>, aged 18 to 29 years old, identify as Democrats. This compares with 35% of these voters who identify as Republicans. In 2020, young voters in this age group made up an <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#when-and-how-young-people-voted">estimated 17%</a> of the electorate. </p>
<p>In a close election, securing the youth vote will be paramount in order for Biden to win reelection.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand how young voters might change their election pick preferences if they learn more about different topics, such as the economy, likely to feature in this election season. </p>
<p>We recruited 1,418 respondents from across the country to participate in an online survey experiment in December 2023, including 860 people who identify as Democrats.</p>
<p>In this experiment, we exposed respondents to different messages that the Biden campaign might employ, to see if young Democrats could be persuaded back to Biden.</p>
<p>A quarter of the respondents saw information about how <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-inflation-reduction-climate-anniversary-9950f7e814ac71e89eee3f452ab17f71">inflation and</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-unemployment-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-b1c21252024d697765d047a60f41e900">unemployment decreased</a> during the Biden administration. </p>
<p>Another quarter of respondents were given information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-capitol-riot-probe-turns-focus-trump-allies-extremist-groups-2022-07-12/">encouraging an insurrection</a> at the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>The next quarter of respondents were given information about Biden’s and Trump’s positions on abortion, and whether the U.S. should accept immigrants from the Gaza Strip. </p>
<p>The final group of respondents received no information about a particular topic.</p>
<p>In our research, which has yet to be published, we found mixed evidence that undecided young Democrats would be persuaded to vote for Biden based on any new information we shared with them. </p>
<p>Among the people we polled who were given no information, 66% of 18-year-old to 34-year-old Democrats said they would vote for Biden. This roughly tracks with national polling. </p>
<p>Would learning about the strength of the economy boost Biden’s support? </p>
<p>About 69% of young Democrats who read about dropping inflation and unemployment rates said they would vote for Biden, compared with 31% who said they would vote for Trump or another candidate. This reflects a modest increase in support for Biden, compared to people who had no information on this topic. </p>
<p>We then tested whether providing information to voters about the candidates’ policy positions would change support for Biden. </p>
<p>It is possible that voters are just unaware of the candidates’ positions on issues <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-voters-polls.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">and, after getting more information</a>, will change their views. </p>
<p>We found that 71% of respondents who learned about Biden’s and Trump’s policy positions on abortion and Palestinian refugees from Gaza said they would vote for Biden, compared with the 66% who did not read any new information on these topics before deciding their pick. </p>
<p>Finally, we gave people information about Trump’s norm-violating behavior. This actually marginally decreased support for Biden, dropping from the 66% among people who did not have any of this information given to them in the survey to 63% among people who did. This change, though, lacked what social scientists call statistical significance – meaning that we cannot say this difference is not just attributable to chance alone. </p>
<p>Overall, we found that giving young Democrats access to three different pieces of information generally led to small increases in whether they said they would vote for Biden or not. </p>
<p>Next, we asked respondents “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election?” and how likely they are to vote in the upcoming presidential election. We found that the three different pieces of information each led to a small increase in reported vote intention among young Democrats, but didn’t, on average, increase their enthusiasm about voting. In other words, if young voters feel compelled to vote, they may do so, but without enthusiasm.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young people sit around a table, and two young people, both wearing white T-shirts, stand near a screen that says 'Canvass training'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576873/original/file-20240220-20-e11nih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abortion rights canvassers gather for a canvass training in Columbus, Ohio, in November 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pro-choice-canvassers-gather-for-a-canvass-training-meeting-news-photo/1766360809?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The power of persuasion</h2>
<p>Taken together, these results show little movement among young Democrats. This is particularly striking when compared to older Democrats in our sample. </p>
<p>When presented with information about the strength of the economy, the candidates’ divergent policy positions or Trump’s norm-violating behavior, support for Biden among likely voters who were 55 years old or older and identified as Democrats increased from 73% to around 90%.</p>
<p>These results suggest an uphill battle for the Biden campaign to bring back young voters. Young voters, even if they identify as Democrats, are perhaps less attached to a party, or democratic institutions more generally, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/18/democracy-young-people-voters-trump/">than older voters</a>. This means campaign messages about democratic norms might be less persuasive among younger voters. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there are reasons to expect young voters might return to Biden: The economy is doing well, which <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/11/06/presidential-election-predictions-polls/">tends to help incumbents</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, partisanship, particularly in this polarizing environment, remains a powerful influence, and may still exert a pull on young Democrats over the campaign.</p>
<p>Democrats, after all, successfully ran on an anti-Trump campaign in the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/">2022 midterm elections</a>, <a href="https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJGbU9EZ3dNalZtTURZMiIsInQiOiJTOTZTRHBrN0lNWG9IVisxUXhEdUdtcUxYaENlS2tIYlJ1YTZyTzhkNjBQM2o0dWVwZlVad3lxaTk1N0FtelwvMkJDOTdsYWtmVDU5eVVDQjhjcjJLUDBocGFaWjRRalVaXC9paTE1dGhzSmxrYWtjUnlXWEk2cVlDc0xPS1FQZ0RPIn0%3D#section-100">2020 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/midterm-elections-results.html">2018 midterm elections</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While young voters say they would be more likely to vote for Biden after they learn more about the economy and other topics, they did not appear affected by Donald Trump’s norm-defying behavior.Neil O'Brian, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonChandler James, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212552024-01-18T12:14:17Z2024-01-18T12:14:17ZMr Bates vs The Post Office is perfect social realism: it speaks directly to the public<p>In the wake of British broadcast ITV airing <a href="https://theconversation.com/mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-depicts-one-of-the-uks-worst-miscarriages-of-justice-heres-why-so-many-victims-didnt-speak-out-220513">its four-part drama</a>, Mr Bates vs The Post Office, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/10/rishi-sunak-announces-plan-to-pass-law-quashing-horizon-post-office-scandal-convictions">new legislation</a> has been tabled, former Post Office boss Paula Vennells <a href="https://theconversation.com/former-post-office-boss-paula-vennells-says-shell-hand-back-her-cbe-but-it-may-not-be-that-simple-220869">has handed back</a> her CBE and, for the first time, Fujitsu, the company behind the faulty IT system at the scandal’s heart, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/16/fujitsu-admits-for-first-time-it-should-help-compensate-post-office-victims">has admitted</a> it should contribute to compensation for the victims. </p>
<p>The question that won’t go away is why it has taken a TV drama for the wheels of justice to really start moving.</p>
<p>News outlets, podcasts, political commentators and MPs have been galvanised into action after, as ITV revealed on January 9 2024, 9.2 million viewers tuned in to watch the drama. The scheduling and the audience profile go some way to explaining why it has had such an impact. So too, does the drama being closely aligned with social realist approaches to cinema. </p>
<p>My doctoral research into British social realism looks at how individual characters are constructed and represented in film. Mr Bates vs The Post Office follows the plight of characters facing a social problem filmed in a naturalistic manner. Crucially, much like Ken Loach’s 2016 film, <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2016-11-30/debates/AC2EA058-9135-410D-9138-DC2C5163574C/SocialSecurityClaimants">I, Daniel Blake</a>, it has generated not just public attention but also activism. </p>
<h2>How realism connects with the viewer</h2>
<p>Directed by James Strong and written by Gwyneth Hughes, Mr Bates vs The Post Office tells the story of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-office-scandal-why-thousands-of-victims-are-yet-to-see-justice-22088">Post Office Horizon IT scandal</a> that left hundreds of sub-postmasters with accounting errors between 1999 and 2015. The long-respected institution claimed these were solely their responsibility, resulting in <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-post-office-was-able-to-bring-private-prosecutions-in-the-horizon-it-scandal-220959">private prosecutions</a>, debt, bankruptcy and, tragically, suicides. </p>
<p>The drama focuses on conventional aspects associated with social realism: injustice, law and order and poverty. Sub-postmaster Lee Castleton (Will Mellor) is privately prosecuted. The bankruptcy he suffers as a result of losing that case and being required to pay legal fees for the Post Office, affects his home life, his relationships and his mental health. </p>
<p>There are hard hitting sequences, showing Castleton and many other characters reaching breaking point. One character takes their own life. These are scenes that remain with the viewer long after the programme has ended. </p>
<p>While the realist element of the drama is not as strong as its social aspect, the camera is deployed in a way reminiscent of Loach. It lingers as an observer in the lives of these characters. Similarly, in <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-daniel-blake-ken-loach-tells-britain-its-time-to-kick-the-political-door-in-66657">I, Daniel Blake</a>, the camera observes from a distance as Daniel comes up against structures of inequality and injustice. This offers a visceral insight into the torturous ordeal that ordinary people face. </p>
<p>While many critically acclaimed social realist films, such as <a href="https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/109497/">This is England</a>, <a href="https://zooscope.group.shef.ac.uk/fish-tank-dir-andrea-arnold-bbc-films-2009/">Fish Tank</a> and <a href="https://zooscope.group.shef.ac.uk/the-selfish-giant-dir-clio-barnard-ifc-films-2013/">The Selfish Giant</a>, share subtle political nuances with the ITV drama, it is in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/oct/15/ken-laoch-film-i-daniel-blake-kes-cathy-come-home-interview-simon-hattenstone">Loach’s oeuvre</a> that it finds greatest resonance. His films, including <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14680777.2021.1879194">Sorry We Missed You</a> (2019) and <a href="https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/ex-miner-digs-deep-to-help-migrants-in-the-old-oak">The Old Oak</a> (2023), adopts recognisable authentic characters in familiar locations. This convention of Loach and other social realist filmmakers, allows the audience to understand a broader range of socio-economic and cultural issues in society. </p>
<p>In my research, I have shown how <a href="https://ray.yorksj.ac.uk/id/eprint/3284/1/KELLETT%20LEWIS%20FINAL%20THESIS.pdf">realism</a> can articulate a relationship between an individual and the social world. It activates a <a href="https://cmegali.myblog.arts.ac.uk/2021/11/04/mise-en-scene/">mise-en-scène</a> (a film studies term about the arrangement of props and scenery on set) of memory, recognition and familiarity. It solidifies the images and narratives on screen in the minds of the viewers. Much like Daniel Blake, and This is England’s Shaun Fields, the Post Office drama’s characters are relatable: the viewer can compare their experiences with those on screen.</p>
<p>Blake is constructed to be an honest person, who, despite his health issues, has to find work due lack of communication between health professionals and the benefits system. So too, the regular and hardworking people, in Mr Bates vs The Post Office become victims of a system that does not communicate effectively, severely affecting their wellbeing.</p>
<p>Furthermore, as opposed to a faceless person in a news article or subject in a documentary, the actors involved in the drama – Toby Jones, Julie Hesmondhalgh, Shaun Dooley, Will Mellor, Ian Hart, Monica Dolan – are all familiar to the British public. Through their history with national television, and the diverse regional representation they achieve, their presence further enforces the drama’s “this could happen to you” narrative. </p>
<h2>How scheduling and audience profile matters</h2>
<p>Of course, the show also benefited from a well-placed slot in the Christmas/new year schedule. It was broadcast on consecutive days and also uploaded to ITV’s streaming site, ITVX. This both catered to binge culture (where viewers watch several episodes in one sitting) and kept the momentum going, allowing the story to embed itself in the minds of viewers. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0029/265376/media-nations-report-2023.pdf">OfCom</a>, ITV boasts an eclectic audience, but most viewers are over 55 and from working class backgrounds. This means they’re mostly watching the drama from a working-class perspective, with experiences that chime with those represented on screen. </p>
<p><a href="https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/dnr-executive-summary">Research</a> has long shown that, due to changing consumer behaviour and falling sales revenue, traditional media including newspapers and magazines are no longer able to capture the public attention in the same way this drama has. </p>
<p>Conversely, social realist projects have brought about real change. The public debate prompted by Loach’s I, Daniel Blake <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2016-11-30/debates/AC2EA058-9135-410D-9138-DC2C5163574C/SocialSecurityClaimants">led to a discussion</a> in the House of Lords, on how claimants were being treated by the social security system. </p>
<p>The show’s writer Gwenyth Hughes has spoken at length about her investigative approach to writing what she underlines is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/09/post-office-scandal-tv-drama-horizon">true story</a>: “If you want to really get people’s attention, tell them a story. And in this case, a true story.” Mr Bates vs The Post Office is a vital reminder of the power of fictional storytelling, rooted in real life, to give voice to ordinary people who have been marginalised and ignored. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536131/original/file-20230706-17-460x2d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221255/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lewis Kellett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like the exemplars of social realist cinema, Mr Bates vs The Post Office follows stories of individual plight facing a social problem filmed in a naturalistic manner.Lewis Kellett, Doctoral Researcher in Cinema, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2191932024-01-07T12:34:29Z2024-01-07T12:34:29ZWhat’s behind the dramatic shift in Canadian public opinion about immigration levels?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/whats-behind-the-dramatic-shift-in-canadian-public-opinion-about-immigration-levels" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In June 2023, Canada’s <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/population_and_demography/40-million">population reached 40 million</a>. For the first time in history, the population grew by more than a million (2.7 per cent) in a single year. Temporary and permanent migration accounted for <a href="https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/about/smr09/smr09_139">96 per cent of this population growth</a>. </p>
<p>Over the past few decades, Canadians have been more positive than negative in their attitudes toward immigrants and immigration. In 2019, Canada was ranked the most accepting country for immigrants (in a survey of 145 countries) on <a href="https://www.cicnews.com/2020/10/canada-most-accepting-country-for-migrants-u-s-6th-poll-1015940.html#gs.1vgl9w">Gallup’s Migrant Acceptance Index</a>. </p>
<p>Over the last few years, Environics public opinion data also indicated Canadians felt very positively about immigrants and immigration levels. </p>
<p>Something changed in 2023.</p>
<h2>A million newcomers in two years</h2>
<p>A few months after reaching this population milestone, the federal government released its new <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html">Immigration Levels Plan</a> to welcome 485,000 permanent residents in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025 and 2026. </p>
<p>This announcement came on the heels of an <a href="https://www.environicsinstitute.org/projects/project-details/public-opinion-about-immigration-refugees">Environics public opinion survey</a> revealing a significant increase in the number of Canadians who believe the country accepts too many immigrants. That marks a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when support for immigration levels stood at an all-time high. </p>
<p>Canadians are still more likely to disagree (51 per cent) than agree (44 per cent) that immigration levels are too high, but the gap between these views has shrunk over the past year, from 42 percentage points to just seven. That’s the biggest one-year change in opinion on this question since it was first asked by Environics in 1977. </p>
<p>Rising concerns about the number of arrivals are evident across Canada, but are most widely expressed in Ontario and British Columbia.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1724574016030318975"}"></div></p>
<p>Environics has been surveying Canadians about immigration on a regular basis since 1977. The <a href="https://www.environicsinstitute.org/projects/project-details/public-opinion-about-immigration-refugees">latest survey</a> of more than 2,000 Canadians was conducted in September 2023 in partnership with the <a href="https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/">Century Initiative</a>, a non-profit lobbying and charity group.</p>
<p>The survey was conducted to ensure representation by region, age, gender and educational attainment.</p>
<p>Apart from rising public concerns about immigration levels, there has been no corresponding change in how Canadians feel about immigrants themselves in terms of how they’re integrating and what they contribute to Canadian society. </p>
<p>The public is much more likely to say that newcomers make their own communities a better place than a worse one.</p>
<h2>Housing crisis concerns</h2>
<p>Importantly, the belief that immigration levels are too high is largely driven by perceptions that newcomers may be contributing to the housing crisis in terms of availability and affordability. </p>
<p>As researchers who study attitudes toward immigrants and immigration, we believe it is critical to pay attention to this shift.</p>
<p>There is a large body of research examining how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1368430220983470">perceived threat/competition</a> predicts attitudes toward immigrants and immigration. </p>
<p>This research shows that negative attitudes toward immigrants can develop when situational factors — for example, <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22066660/housing-shortages-canada-solving-affordability-crisis-en.pdf">housing shortages</a>, <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231219/dq231219a-eng.htm">inflationary pressures</a> and a rise in <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2023/how-the-global-rise-of-authoritarianism-is-misunderstood-and-why-it-matters">anti-immigration ideologies</a> — combine to create perceptions of group competition.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-2415.2011.01269.x">Perceived competition</a> may be rooted in real or imagined national economic challenges, as well as beliefs about access to housing, employment and other resources.</p>
<p>In September 2023, when Environics conducted its latest survey, there was a lot of media coverage about <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-international-students-housing">the housing crisis</a>, including the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-western-canada-flow-of-international-students-worsening-housing-crisis/">scapegoating of international students</a>. It’s possible such coverage may have hardened some Canadians’ attitudes toward immigration levels.</p>
<p>In reality, Canada’s housing shortage was fuelled for decades by myriad factors, including municipal zoning laws, developers’ special interests and public policy on housing. As other scholars have argued, curbing migration is not a solution to this complex issue, nor is it moral. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-curbing-overseas-migration-will-end-the-housing-crisis-it-wont-and-we-cant-afford-to-do-it-211120">Think curbing overseas migration will end the housing crisis? It won't – and we can't afford to do it</a>
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<h2>Attitudes towards immigrants may change</h2>
<p>Policymakers and community leaders should pay close attention to public attitudes toward immigration levels as they strive to build a diversified and robust immigration system and create <a href="http://p2pcanada.ca/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2023/03/Welcoming-Toolkit-I-Measuring-Welcoming-Communities.pdf">welcoming communities for immigrants</a>. </p>
<p>The latest research demonstrates the public still feels positively toward immigrants and their many contributions to communities and Canadian society. However, there seems to be growing concerns about Canada’s capacity to effectively resettle immigrants, in part due to concerns that newcomers may be contributing to the housing crisis. </p>
<p>If Canadians continue to blame immigrants for the housing crisis, their attitudes toward immigrants themselves — as opposed to immigration levels — may harden. How Canadians feel about immigration levels may also impact the type and level of supports immigrants can access as they resettle, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315178080-15/role-attitudes-migration-victoria-esses-leah-hamilton-danielle-gaucher">whether they experience discrimination in the housing and labour markets</a> and whether they’re <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-canada-welcomes-historic-numbers-of-immigrants-how-can-communities-be-more-welcoming-206054">warmly welcomed</a> by their communities. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-welcoming-and-supportive-environment-helps-immigrants-better-integrate-219787">Creating a welcoming and supportive environment helps immigrants better integrate</a>
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<p>In order to ensure continued public support for immigration, it’s important for political leaders at all levels to address and counter perceptions of threat and competition over housing, jobs and other resources.</p>
<p>In addition to making critical public policy decisions to address Canada’s housing shortage, this will also require fair media coverage and representation of immigrants. </p>
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<p><em>This article was co-authored by Keith Neuman, Senior Associate at Environics Institute for Survey Research.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leah Hamilton receives funding from SSHRC.</span></em></p>The number of Canadians who believe there is too much immigration to Canada rose sharply in 2023. Why have public opinions changed so much in the last year?Leah Hamilton, Vice Dean, Research & Community Relations, & Professor of Organizational Behaviour, Faculty of Business & Communication Studies, Mount Royal UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187772023-12-12T13:24:15Z2023-12-12T13:24:15ZIsrael-Hamas war may not restore Israelis’ support for military reserves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563402/original/file-20231204-23-ez4omg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C7%2C4962%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Israeli reservists take a moment to rest in southern Israel on Nov. 13, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/reservists-rest-on-a-military-vehicle-while-at-a-rest-stop-news-photo/1797440629">Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the first Israeli government responses to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, surprise attack was the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/10/israel-military-draft-reservists/">mobilization of about 360,000 reservists</a> into active duty for the Israel military. This amounts to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/10/israel-military-draft-reservists/">roughly 4% of the nation’s population</a> and boosted the strength of the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/10/16/what-is-the-idf/71203296007/">170,000 people already serving in the military</a>, either doing compulsory service or as career soldiers.</p>
<p>As someone who has studied Israel’s security policies and society for the last 20 years, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xBQYKHwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I see</a> the rare decision to mobilize more than <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/israel-military-capabilities-explained">three-quarters of Israel’s entire reserve forces</a>, as reflecting more than the practical need for soldiers to secure the nation and respond to Hamas’ attacks. I believe the mobilization decision was also intended to signal that Israel is prepared to fight any other potential adversaries who might consider the country vulnerable.</p>
<p>But the success or failure of those efforts depends on whether the unique circumstances of the current conflict can reverse a <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-decline-of-the-reservist-army/">decadeslong decline in Israelis’ support for a reserve army</a>. My assessment is that in the long term, the importance of the reserves will continue to diminish within Israeli society. </p>
<h2>Mandatory military service</h2>
<p>All Israeli citizens are required to serve in the military when they are between the ages of 18 and 21 – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-reservists-drop-everything-rush-home-following-hamas-bloodshed-2023-10-12/">men for 32 months and women for 24 months</a>. After that service period ends, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-reservists-drop-everything-rush-home-following-hamas-bloodshed-2023-10-12/">most of them are required</a> to serve in the reserves, training several weeks a year until their early 40s.</p>
<p>If they are called up for active duty, most reservists are deployed for routine law and order missions in the West Bank and the quieter border areas. Also, elite units of reservists serve as the backbone of the air force and some infantry and armored units.</p>
<p>But changes to the military’s reserve policies means that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/world/middleeast/israeli-reservists.html">less than 5% of the country’s population</a> are in the reserves, The New York Times reported in November 2023.</p>
<h2>Israel as a ‘garrison state’</h2>
<p>At Israel’s founding in 1948, its leaders wanted the country to be prepared for enduring military clashes with its neighbors, with a strong, well-equipped and highly trained military force. But Israel has a relatively small population and limited natural and financial resources. So they chose to form the Israel Defense Forces based on a small standing army largely made up of conscripts, and a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X09354173">much larger reserve force</a>. </p>
<p>With this model, often called a “garrison state” by scholars, the founders believed Israel could fight much larger Arab nations <a href="https://doi.org/10.2979/israelstudies.18.3.95">without having to maintain a large standing army</a>, which would tie up both personnel and funding that could undermine the country’s economic development. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People stand in a line at an airport." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563405/original/file-20231204-15-lem1kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Just days after the Hamas attack, people lined up at a Greek airport to fly to Tel Aviv, Israel. The country’s call for reservists brought people from overseas, including volunteers who wanted to join the fight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GreeceIsraelPalestinians/decb6832d0ee42089eb73a469799a114/photo">AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Decreasing support for reserves</h2>
<p>Massive numbers of reservists were <a href="https://time.com/6322802/yom-kippur-war-israel-history/">crucial to Israel’s victory</a> over Egypt and Syria in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. But since the 1980s, the Israeli public’s support for a large reserve force has waned. </p>
<p>In part, <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-decline-of-the-reservist-army/">many Israelis didn’t want to serve</a> in the reserves after they had fulfilled their active-duty obligation. This was because reservists’ duties became more controversial and divisive. A growing number of reservists were assigned to policing and maintaining Israel’s military control of the Palestinian population in the West Bank and, until 2005, also in the Gaza Strip.</p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-decline-of-the-reservist-army/">civilian life and military life in Israel were less entwined</a> than they had been in earlier decades. Success in the military service didn’t guarantee prestige and opportunities in the private sector, as it once had. Lastly, the aura of success that surrounded the Israel military faded following its failure in the 1990s and 2000s to effectively <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/48608992">reduce growing threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip</a> </p>
<h2>A return to dependence on reserves</h2>
<p>The Oct. 7 attack appears to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/world/middleeast/israeli-reservists.html">restored many Israelis’ support for the reserves</a>. Israelis experienced and view that attack as not just another round of skirmishing between Palestinian terrorists and Israeli forces, but rather as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/jewish-response-to-hamas-war-criticism-comes-from-deep-sense-of-trauma-active-grief-and-fear-216340">serious and significant attack on the nation’s existence</a>.</p>
<p>The country’s leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faced <a href="https://apnews.com/article/netanyahu-israel-government-hamas-war-anger-failure-0e8712cb539b84befb95a4a061813b79">immediate and powerful criticism</a> for failing to prevent the Hamas attack and for abandoning civilians who were killed, kidnapped or injured.</p>
<p>The public saw this mobilization, then, as an appropriate response to help <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/4264568-netanyahu-warns-of-long-war-israel-hamas/">ensure the survival of the Jewish state</a> – rather than an act of expanding controversial occupation and security policies.</p>
<p>Moreover, Hamas’ attack mainly targeted civilians, which reminded Israelis of their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/29/world/europe/israel-reservists-hamas-war.html">civic responsibility to defend each other and the nation</a>.</p>
<p>For the most part, Israelis appear to have accepted this message. They continue to <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-80-of-israelis-say-netanyahu-must-take-public-responsibility-for-oct-7-failures/">blame Netanyahu and his government</a> for the failures that allowed the attack, but agree that <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/10/21/23926304/israeli-hamas-war-netanyahu-opinion">the war must come before political repercussions</a>. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/12/israel-unity-government-netanyahu-gantz/">formation of a unity government</a>, in which a major opposition party joined the governing coalition for the duration of the war, was one significant political signal of this public sentiment.</p>
<p>At least thousands of Israelis who were not formally mobilized <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israelis-abroad-military-flights-diaspora-4637a5e48912f5c90c4a72f50e5a4061">volunteered to return to reserve service</a>, even traveling from their homes in faraway countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People stand in a group holding Israeli flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563404/original/file-20231204-27-7578mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In August 2023, Brothers in Arms, an Israeli reservists organization, demonstrated against proposed judicial reforms in Israel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-chant-slogans-during-a-demonstration-brothers-in-news-photo/1624825005">Matan Golan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future of Israel’s reserves</h2>
<p>It’s unclear whether the shift in support for the reserves will last beyond this war. Regardless of how – or when – the war ends, Israel’s military occupation and policies in the West Bank will continue to be a source of political division in Israel. </p>
<p>Relatedly, Israel’s reservists have begun to explore the political power their role confers upon them. Netanyahu’s efforts in early 2023 to undermine the nation’s democracy, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871">including by reducing judges’ independence</a>, met widespread public protest. Reservists were prominent in the resistance to Netanyahu’s proposals, even <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/19/israeli-military-reservists-at-centre-of-anti-government-protests">threatening to end their service</a> or resign from the military roles if certain initiatives moved forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arie Perliger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Israel’s decision to mobilize hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers was not just an act of self-defense, a scholar writes, but a political move as well.Arie Perliger, Director of Security Studies and Professor of Criminology and Justice Studies, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2178802023-11-16T15:59:21Z2023-11-16T15:59:21ZHamas isn’t the first military group to hide behind civilians as a way to wage war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559809/original/file-20231116-19-swoqzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The exterior of Shifa hospital in Gaza City is seen on Nov. 10, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas near the facility. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/picture-shows-a-view-of-the-exterior-of-al-shifa-hospital-news-photo/1775224453?adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Israeli military said on Nov. 15, 2023, that it had found weapons and a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-raids-gazas-al-shifa-hospital-2023-11-15/">Hamas command center</a> at Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, after sending troops into the medical facility.</em> </p>
<p><em>Shifa has become the epicenter of Israel’s ground invasion into Gaza, as the Israeli military says that Hamas has strategically placed its fighters and weapons in a broad tunnel system that connects to the hospital, and that Hamas is using hospital workers and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/15/israel-gaza-al-shifa-hospital-hamas-map/">patients as human shields</a>. The U.S. says its intelligence shows that Hamas, as The New York Times wrote, “has been using hospitals in Gaza, including Al-Shifa, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/us/politics/hamas-hospitals-gaza-israel.html">as command centers and ammunitions depots</a>.” Hamas <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-hamas-refused-israeli-fuel-offer-gazas-shifa-hospital-2023-11-12/">has denied the allegations</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The hospital complex now houses about 700 patients, 400 health workers and 3,000 Palestinians who are displaced from their homes, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/15/israel-gaza-al-shifa-hospital-hamas-map/">according to United Nations figures</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This is far from the first time that a military group has allegedly used civilians to shield themselves and their weapons, says <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7sjhifoAAAAJ&hl=en">Benjamin Jensen</a>, a war strategy expert from American University School of International Service who served 20 years in the military.</em></p>
<p><em>Jensen explained that civilians often become pawns in war when one side does not have a military advantage against a stronger adversary – and looks for other ways to weaken their opponent.</em></p>
<h2>1. What purpose does using civilians to shield fighters serve in a conflict?</h2>
<p>Using places and things civilians need, like hospitals, as a means to fight a war is considered a weapon of the weak. It is a way to use another side’s values against it. </p>
<p>I think it is clear that Hamas has – in this war <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/17/5912189/yes-gaza-militants-hide-rockets-in-schools-but-israel-doesnt-have-to">and historically</a> – tried to embed <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3578196/defense-department-continues-to-stress-law-of-war-with-israel/">themselves and weapons in places civilians</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/11/06/what-blinken-confirmed-in-the-middle-east-00125599">live or visit,</a> in order to make it more difficult for the Israelis to target them. </p>
<p>One question in war is, “How do I raise the cost that my adversary has to incur in order to attack me?” Your goal is to gain a relative advantage at the lowest possible cost to yourself, and with the lowest possible benefit for your adversary. </p>
<p>And in this case, the costs to Israel are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-generation-gap-in-opinions-toward-israel/">damage to its reputation</a> and legitimacy, among some people, because of the <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-39-enarhe">civilians it is killing</a> in Gaza while targeting Hamas. </p>
<h2>2. Are fighters hiding behind or among civilians a new way of waging a war?</h2>
<p>Using civilians to further a military advantage is not a new phenomenon.</p>
<p>We still have this ridiculous image of war looking like people lined up in neat rows, meeting each other in defined fields of battle. But that flies in the face of the actual history of warfare historically, and especially in the 21st century. </p>
<p>In the Japanese attack on the British stronghold of Singapore in 1942, during World War II, for example, one of the key features of Japan’s approach was to bomb <a href="https://www.nlb.gov.sg/main/article-detail?cmsuuid=f1afa0d2-8b3c-40fd-bf33-269a7e40bbfd">people’s water sources</a>, in order to more rapidly compel the British surrender. </p>
<p>We’ve seen adversaries in <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/irrc-872-bouchie-de-belle.pdf">multiple modern conflicts</a> hide behind or among civilians. It’s sad, because it means the only truth in war is that there will be tragedy, and civilians will pay the heaviest price.</p>
<h2>3. Where else has this happened?</h2>
<p>Even if you go back to the Vietnam War, you can find <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA032423.pdf">examples of the Viet Cong</a> sometimes using the same routes or vehicles that were used for aid delivery to civilians. Wars dating back to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/05/29/bosnian-serbs-seize-more-un-troops/991628ef-8469-436d-8759-470fe4ab11d4/">Bosnian civil war</a> in the early 1990s are really where you start to see more examples of fighters trying to shield themselves with civilians or with U.N. peacekeepers, as happened in Bosnia.</p>
<p>We’ve seen the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/feb/17/taliban-human-shields">Taliban in Afghanistan hiding in civilians’ homes</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/4ae0135dc5fd4cf4b7619c647ddfa873">in hospitals</a>, as well as storing <a href="https://www.dvidshub.net/news/53795/taliban-use-mosque-hide-weapons-cache">weapons in mosques</a>. The Taliban were very good at being fluid and moving in and out of civilian areas that would make it difficult to strike them.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://mwi.westpoint.edu/urban-warfare-project-case-study-2-battle-of-mosul/#:%7E:text=The%20battle%20occurred%20between%20fighters,to%20twelve%20thousand%20ISIS%20fighters.">battle of Mosul</a>, between the Islamic State group and the Iraqi government from 2016 through 2017, was another example of this. The Islamic State fighters herded an estimated 100,000 civilians together and used them as <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/civilians-living-penury-and-panic-mosul-battle-rages-unhcr">civilian shields</a>. </p>
<p>Even in the case of the Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/22/europe/putin-uses-word-war-fighting-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html">declared war</a> on the entire society of Ukraine. But it’s possible that some of Russia’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/26/world/europe/russia-ukraine-hospital-missile.html">strikes against hospitals</a> in Ukraine happened because Russian intelligence received information that Ukraine may or may not have been moving soldiers or items in and out of the hospital. </p>
<h2>4. Do civilians sometimes willingly play the role of human shields?</h2>
<p>It varies. Based on my experience, do I think it’s possible that the lead hospital administrators in Gaza know the full landscape of the labyrinth of tunnels underneath? No. Do I think one or two officials or a couple of janitors or part-time workers do? Yes. Do I also think that it’s possible that most people in a war zone are just trying to survive and they look the other way? Yes. </p>
<p>There’s this weird phenomenon for civilians in situations like this, in which they often know something’s going on. But also if you’re smart enough, you might not ask anything. Hamas was known to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/27/world/middleeast/hamas-is-accused-of-killing-and-torturing-palestinians.html">mistreat Palestinians</a> before this war started. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman with a headscarf holds a small baby and sits amid a large pile of rubble." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559794/original/file-20231115-25-3xod7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Palestinian woman holds her baby at her home destroyed by Israeli air strikes in a central area of the Gaza Strip on Nov. 15, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/palestinian-woman-holds-her-baby-at-her-home-destroyed-news-photo/1783907050?adppopup=true">Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. How does Hamas allegedly using civilian shields complicate this war?</h2>
<p>The answer depends on what your military is trying to achieve. If your idea is that you have to move faster than your adversary, then you are willing to probably assume a higher risk of civilian casualties and lose the information war – meaning the war of people’s public opinion – in order to rapidly destroy your adversary. </p>
<p>But with Hamas locating themselves alongside important places like hospitals, Hamas has actually made Israel fight them in places Israel wouldn’t want to target them, because of the potential loss of civilian life. And in doing so, look at how fast Israel lost momentum in its <a href="https://sg.news.yahoo.com/could-killed-information-war-inflates-052107912.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL_mlwp9w4aQ6CbhWlw6T-Hfq-ERRNfp6eN2VA8Geo-1Cyyt68gkcZHEGzlBHypM7uEktJbAReSN6mKMtzDW7CU4TI1u84_cv87AKUl2JJW6_Mjuw8SntF_3UQ25m-y7nwufO4bCMeno-lkwO3zwa8H7XfXYfWiAU3f41Sz77u3Y">information war</a>. Israel is taking a huge amount of criticism for its killing of civilians as it goes after Hamas.</p>
<p>Despite what some protesters are saying, I can say that the Israeli military does care about civilian casualties. Israel still is a democracy. And they respect, even if not to the exact standards that many people would like to see, the laws of war – certainly more than Hamas does. For example, Israel limits how it <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4285905-obvious-to-us-israel-trying-to-minimize-civilian-casualties-kirby-says/">targets military strikes</a>. </p>
<p>And even with that, the information blowback against Israel is real. I fought for 20 years. It’s hard to get images of infants killed and hurt in this war out of your head. Social media accelerates the circulation of images that pull on our emotions and make it difficult to have objective conversations about the conflict.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Jensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Taliban and the Islamic State group are among the militant groups that have been known to use civilians as human shields in the past, in order to try to shift their opponents’ war calculations.Benjamin Jensen, Professor of Strategic Studies, Marine Corps University; Scholar-in-Residence, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2063812023-09-28T12:25:56Z2023-09-28T12:25:56ZWe asked 1,000 Zimbabweans what they think of China’s influence on their country − only 37% viewed it favorably<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547831/original/file-20230912-23-7bo64u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China provides billions of dollars in loans and direct investments to African nations each year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/zimbabwe-and-china-two-flags-together-realations-royalty-free-image/1089915350">Oleksii Liskonih/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China has big ambitions in Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, the economic superpower loaned African governments <a href="https://lucid-cari.squarespace.com/data-chinese-loans-to-africa">US$159 billion</a> to build railroads, highways, stadiums and bridges.</p>
<p>Complementing those loans, foreign direct investment by Chinese-owned businesses that operate in Africa and employ Africans have grown from $75 million in 2003 to <a href="http://www.sais-cari.org/chinese-investment-in-africa">$5 billion in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>China’s investment and influence in the region has garnered both recognition and criticism from scholars as well as <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/china-in-africa-the-new-imperialists">Western media</a>. Some see a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2016.1179023">mutually beneficial relationship</a> that improves infrastructure and economic development for African countries. Others warn that China’s presence and noninterference policy is a <a href="https://www.jpanafrican.org/docs/vol10no2/10.2-13-Antwi-Boateng.pdf">guise for its intent to “colonize” Africa</a>. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_4cjmbUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">professors of political science</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tMPB70AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">study Africa-China relations</a>, we’ve seen how the arguments on either side rarely factor in how the African public feels about China’s involvement on the continent. So in March 2023 we asked 1,000 urban professionals in Zimbabwe – 64% were college educated; 94% lived in urban areas – for their opinions on China’s economic and political influence on their country. Our study is currently under journal review.</p>
<p>We found that exposure to Western media led to a more negative view of China’s economic and political activities in Zimbabwe. Exposure to Chinese media, such as the English-language <a href="http://en.people.cn/">People’s Daily</a> and <a href="https://english.news.cn/">Xinhua News</a>, meanwhile, improved Zimbabweans’ views of China’s economic activities – but had little or no effect on their views of China’s political activities. </p>
<p>Our study also shows that the political party that respondents belonged to played a role in how much they were influenced by Chinese or Western media.</p>
<h2>China’s long relationship with Zimbabwe</h2>
<p>During the Cold War, China competed with the Soviet Union to project itself as a force for liberation in Africa.</p>
<p>For example, China <a href="https://africaportal.org/publication/china-and-zimbabwe-the-context-and-contents-of-a-complex-relationship/">trained and supported</a> the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front, or ZANU-PF, which was fighting for the liberation of the Black majority from the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/20/world/africa/20iht-obits.5.8411810.html">white-minority government</a> led by white supremacist Ian Smith. The ZANU-PF has remained in power in Zimbabwe since the country’s independence from the U.K. in 1980.</p>
<p>This relationship has been unshakable since 2003 when then-President Robert Mugabe’s government was <a href="https://mg.co.za/africa/2022-10-20-zimbabwe-sanctions-will-stay-until-it-mends-its-ways-says-us/">sanctioned by the West</a>. The sanctions followed a controversial <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/9/20/who-is-to-blame-for-zimbabwes-land-reform-disaster">land reform policy</a> that led to white Zimbabwean farmers losing land to Black Zimbabweans. China responded by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2012.670435">strengthening its economic ties</a> with Zimbabwe – providing loans and increasing investments.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548171/original/file-20230913-29-3mybn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zimbabwe’s new parliament building was constructed and fully funded by China as a gift to the southern African country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-interact-in-front-of-zimbabwes-new-parliament-news-photo/1241620100">Shaun Jusa/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Debt-trap diplomacy?</h2>
<p>However, the specter of colonization still haunts Africans, and some politicians and scholars <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14649373.2016.1138615">depict China as a colonizing power</a> dressed in a mantle of noninterference. They <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1536710X.2011.555259">accuse China of exploiting African countries</a> to enrich itself. </p>
<p>These critics claim that loans from China trap African countries in debt as China makes further inroads into Africa’s economic landscape. This is a precursor for neocolonization, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2014.898893">some observers claim</a>. </p>
<p>Furthering this argument is the fact that Chinese companies have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jan/07/zimbabwe-china-mines-pollution-evictions">contributed to the destruction of areas of Zimbabwe</a>, <a href="https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/international/south-sudan-pledges-to-clean-up-oil-pollution-after-locals-protests-2715678">Sudan</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.08.004">Democratic Republic of Congo</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2016.56.2.301">Ghana</a> through mineral and oil extraction – disrupting natural landscapes, emitting hazardous pollutants and displacing local residents.</p>
<p>On the other hand, proponents of greater Africa-China relations see the economic ties as mutually beneficial. They say the debt-trap narrative <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep25988">underestimates the decision-making capacity</a> of African governments who seek to leverage the economic advantages from their relationship with China to benefit their populations. </p>
<p>This vantage point posits that China boosts economic development, that Chinese loans are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2020.1807318">not significant drivers of debt distress</a>, and that there is an <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-dragons-gift-9780199550227">overemphasis on the drawbacks of China’s investment</a> in Africa.</p>
<h2>African perspectives on China</h2>
<p>As to what ordinary Africans think about Chinese influence, survey data collected by the independent research network <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/">Afrobarometer</a> in more than 30 countries between 2019 and 2021 shows that <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad489-africans-welcome-chinas-influence-maintain-democratic-aspirations/">roughly 63% of Africans</a> think China’s economic and political influence is positive. </p>
<p>This public perception of China is on par with public perception of the United States – which <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/publication/ad489-africans-welcome-chinas-influence-maintain-democratic-aspirations/">60% of Africans view favorably</a> when it comes to economic and political influence. </p>
<p>Our survey respondents in Zimbabwe, however, were far more critical: Only 37% viewed China’s influence positively. </p>
<p>We also examined how foreign media coverage from the West – specifically the U.S. and U.K. – and from China influenced respondents’ views on China’s economic and political influence. </p>
<p>While Chinese media is favorable to China’s involvement in Zimbabwe and <a href="http://www.news.cn/english/2021-11/26/c_1310334063.htm">emphasizes how Zimbabwe benefits</a> from the relationship, Western media is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/africa/zimbabwe-mine-shooting-intl/index.html">critical of China’s economic presence</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/chinese-mining-zimbabwe-pose-threat-endangered-species-hwange-national-park">warns about exploitation</a>. </p>
<p>We found that Zimbabweans were more likely to negatively perceive China’s economic and political impact when exposed to critical coverage. Researchers call this a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.1908369116">negativity bias</a>. We found the effect of positive media coverage was more limited – and affected the perceptions of Chinese economic influence but not political influence.</p>
<p>However, partisanship also played a role in how likely Zimbabweans were to be swayed by foreign media. Zimbabweans who support the country’s China-friendly incumbent party ZANU-PF were more likely to be influenced by foreign media than opposition supporters. Their favorable views of China diminished when exposed to critical news and improved when exposed to favorable news. </p>
<p>Opposition party supporters, meanwhile, already had a critical position toward China and were less likely to be swayed by media. This echoes the opposition party’s critical stance on China. Concerning China’s political influence, we found neither positive nor negative media coverage significantly affected their attitudes. </p>
<h2>Weight of public opinion</h2>
<p>What ordinary Africans think of China has significant implications for China, especially in democracies and in countries where the opposition parties have influence. China, of course, knows this and uses its news media to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02500167.2016.1143853">sway public opinion in Africa</a>. </p>
<p>We believe the discussion surrounding China’s presence in Africa should be democratized by taking public opinion more seriously. Although China might win the hearts of African elites through economic investments, critical voices exist among the public, especially among those negatively affected by China’s presence. The public will ultimately decide the extent of China’s endeavors in African countries through the influence they exert on their elite representatives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The American Political Science Association Summer Centennial Center Research Grants funded this study. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This study was funded by the American Political Science Association Summer Centennial Center Research Grant 2nd Century Fund. </span></em></p>Politicians and scholars debate whether China’s economic investments in Africa benefit or exploit local populations. But what does the public think?William Hatungimana, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State UniversityHaruka Nagao, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116012023-08-30T12:18:09Z2023-08-30T12:18:09ZMany people think cannabis smoke is harmless − a physician explains how that belief can put people at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544788/original/file-20230825-11495-v7ifhx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2121%2C1412&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cannabis smoke shares many of the same toxins and carcinogens as tobacco smoke.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/joint-in-the-hand-royalty-free-image/1036594994">Tunatura/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Though <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6946a4">tobacco use is declining</a> among adults in the U.S., <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2015.1858">cannabis use is increasing</a>. Laws and policies regulating the use of tobacco and cannabis are also <a href="https://law.siu.edu/_common/documents/law-journal/articles-2020/fall-2020/2-cork-final.pdf">moving in different directions</a>.</p>
<p>Tobacco policies are becoming more restrictive, with bans on smoking in public places and limits on sales, such as statewide bans on flavored products. In contrast, more states are legalizing cannabis for medical or recreational use, and there are efforts to allow exceptions for cannabis in smoke-free laws. </p>
<p>These changes mean an increasing number of people are likely to get exposed to cannabis smoke. But how safe is direct and secondhand cannabis smoke?</p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://profiles.ucsf.edu/beth.cohen">primary care doctor and researcher</a> in a state where cannabis is now legal for medical and recreational use. My colleagues and I were interested in how opinions about tobacco and cannabis smoke safety have been changing during this time of growing cannabis use and marketing.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u6yxo2msHvo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An increasing number of states have legalized recreational use of marijuana.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our survey of over 5,000 U.S. adults in 2017, 2020 and 2021, we found that people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.28691">increasingly felt that exposure to cannabis smoke</a> was safer than tobacco smoke. In 2017, 26% of people thought that it was safer to smoke a cannabis joint than a cigarette daily. In 2021, over 44% chose cannabis as the safer option. People were similarly more likely to rate secondhand cannabis smoke as being “completely safe” compared with tobacco smoke, even for vulnerable groups such as children and pregnant women. </p>
<p>Despite these views, emerging research raises concerns about the health effects of cannabis smoke exposure.</p>
<h2>Do opinions on cannabis match the science?</h2>
<p>Decades of research and hundreds of studies have linked tobacco smoke to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.23033">multiple types of cancer</a> and to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j5855">cardiovascular disease</a>. However, far fewer studies have been done on the long-term effects of cannabis smoke. Since cannabis remains <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction">illegal at the federal level</a>, it is more challenging for scientists to study. </p>
<p>It has been particularly hard to study health outcomes that may take a long time and heavier exposure to develop. Recent reviews of research on cannabis and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.16318">cancer</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M17-1548">cardiovascular disease</a> found those studies inadequate because they contained relatively few people with heavy exposure, didn’t follow people for a long enough time or didn’t properly account for cigarette smoking. </p>
<p>Many advocates point to the lack of clear findings on negative health effects of cannabis smoke exposure as proof of its harmlessness. However, my colleagues and I feel that this is an example of the famous scientific quote that “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”</p>
<p>Scientists have identified hundreds of chemicals in both cannabis and tobacco smoke, and they share <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/tx700275p">many of the same</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63120-6">carcinogens and toxins</a>. Combustion of tobacco and cannabis, whether by smoking or vaping, also releases particles that can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8689">inhaled deep into the lungs</a> and cause tissue damage. </p>
<p>Animal studies on the effects of secondhand tobacco and cannabis smoke show similar concerning effects on the cardiovascular system. These include impairments in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.116.003858">blood vessel dilation</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrthm.2022.09.021">increased blood pressure</a> and reduced heart function.</p>
<p>Though more research is needed to determine the risk of lung cancer, heart attacks and strokes posed by cannabis smoke, what is already known has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/secondhand-marijuana-smoke-and-indoor-air-quality">raised concerns among</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/marijuana/health-effects/index.html">public health agencies</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hands of two people passing a joint between each other" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544792/original/file-20230825-19-xmkxiz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public perceptions of the safety of cannabis determine how it is used and regulated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/hands-of-man-and-woman-passing-marijuana-joint-royalty-free-image/1087610046">Jamie Grill/Tetra images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why do opinions on cannabis matter?</h2>
<p>How people perceive the safety of cannabis has important implications for its use and public policy. Researchers know from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2018.03.012">studying cannabis</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00079.x">other substances</a> that if people think something is less risky, they are more likely to use it. Opinions on cannabis safety will also shape medical and recreational cannabis use laws and other policies, such as whether cannabis smoke will be treated like tobacco smoke or whether exceptions will be made in smoke-free air laws.</p>
<p>Part of the complexity in decisions about cannabis use is that, unlike tobacco, clinical trials have demonstrated that cannabis can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/24625">benefits in certain settings</a>. These include managing specific types of chronic pain, reducing nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy and increasing appetite and weight gain in those with HIV/AIDS. Notably, many of these studies were not based on smoked or vaped cannabis. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, though Googling cannabis will return thousands of hits about the health benefits of cannabis, many of these claims <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-020-06421-w">aren’t supported by scientific research</a>.</p>
<p>I encourage people who want to learn more about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105%2FAJPH.2017.303818">potential benefits and risks of cannabis</a> to talk to health care providers or seek sources that present an unbiased view of the scientific evidence. The <a href="https://www.nccih.nih.gov/health/cannabis-marijuana-and-cannabinoids-what-you-need-to-know">National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health</a> has a good overview of studies on cannabis for treatment of a variety of medical conditions, as well as information about potential risks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beth Cohen receives funding from the Tobacco Related Disease Research Program and National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p>Clinical trials have demonstrated the health benefits of cannabis for certain conditions, but many aren’t testing smoked or vaped forms. Research on cannabis smoke is raising concerns.Beth Cohen, Professor of Medicine, University of California, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072782023-06-20T12:28:20Z2023-06-20T12:28:20ZAI could shore up democracy – here’s one way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532283/original/file-20230615-16655-mql66x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5587%2C3727&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">AI could help elected representatives raise up constituent voices.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DebtLimit/3bb93a64e39f4c25ac1bd0399a1316e2/photo">AP Photo/Patrick Semansky</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s become fashionable to think of artificial intelligence as an inherently <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ai-artificial-intelligence-chatbots-emily-m-bender.html">dehumanizing technology</a>, a ruthless <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w24196">force of automation</a> that has unleashed legions of virtual skilled laborers in faceless form. But what if AI turns out to be the one tool able to identify what makes your ideas special, recognizing your unique perspective and potential on the issues where it matters most?</p>
<p>You’d be forgiven if you’re distraught about society’s ability to grapple with this new technology. So far, there’s no lack of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/26/artificial-intelligence-democracy-danielle-allen/">prognostications</a> <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/security-expert-warns-of-ai-tools-potential-threat-to-democracy">about</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/15/opinion/ai-chatgpt-lobbying-democracy.html">the</a> <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-democracy-survive-big-data-and-artificial-intelligence/">democratic</a> <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/03/09/business/are-chatbots-useful-tools-game-changers-or-threat-democracy-all-above-ai-experts-say/">doom</a> that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">AI may wreak</a> on the U.S. system of government. There are legitimate reasons to be concerned that AI could <a href="https://openai.com/research/forecasting-misuse">spread misinformation</a>, <a href="https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/will-chatgpt-break-notice-and-comment-regulations">break public comment processes</a> on regulations, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/how-generative-ai-impacts-democratic-engagement/">inundate legislators</a> with artificial constituent outreach, help to <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/3admm8/chatgpt-can-do-a-corporate-lobbyists-job-study-determines">automate corporate lobbying</a>, or even <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/03/14/1069717/how-ai-could-write-our-laws/">generate laws</a> in a way tailored to benefit narrow interests.</p>
<p>But there are reasons to feel more sanguine as well. Many groups have started demonstrating the potential <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/05/opinion/artificial-intelligence-democracy-chatgpt.html">beneficial</a> uses of AI for governance. A key constructive-use case for AI in democratic processes is to serve as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/05/1161192417/a-new-ai-tool-can-moderate-your-texts-to-keep-the-conversation-from-getting-tens">discussion moderator</a> and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.15006">consensus builder</a>. </p>
<p>To help democracy <a href="https://cyberscoop.com/rethinking-democracy-ai/">scale better</a> in the face of growing, increasingly interconnected populations – as well as the wide availability of AI language tools that can generate reams of text at the click of a button – the U.S. will need to leverage AI’s capability to rapidly digest, interpret and summarize <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/robotic-rulemaking/">this content</a>.</p>
<h2>An old problem</h2>
<p>There are two different ways to approach the use of generative AI to improve civic participation and governance. Each is likely to lead to drastically different experience for public policy advocates and other people trying to have their voice heard in a future system where AI chatbots are both the dominant readers and writers of public comment.</p>
<p>For example, consider individual letters to a representative, or comments as part of a regulatory rulemaking process. In both cases, we the people are telling the government what we think and want.</p>
<p>For more than <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/144232278.pdf">half a century</a>, agencies have been using human power to read through all the comments received, and to generate summaries and responses of their major themes. To be sure, digital technology has helped.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="black-and-white photo of a man in a business suit holding a letter with a large pile of mail on the wooden desk in front of him" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532281/original/file-20230615-23-7pntey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taking in comments from the public has been a challenge for representatives and their staffs for many decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RedScareMartinDiesLetters1939/9da7d0912ac14ff2a9b5dca53b3cc413/photo">AP Photo</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In 2021, the Council of Federal Chief Data Officers <a href="https://resources.data.gov/resources/cdoc_comment_analysis/">recommended modernizing</a> the comment review process by implementing natural language processing tools for removing duplicates and clustering similar comments in processes governmentwide. These tools are simplistic by the standards of 2023 AI. They work by assessing the semantic similarity of comments based on metrics like word frequency (How often did you say “personhood”?) and clustering similar comments and giving reviewers a sense of what topic they relate to.</p>
<h2>Getting the gist</h2>
<p>Think of this approach as collapsing public opinion. They take a big, hairy mass of comments from thousands of people and condense them into a tidy set of essential reading that generally suffices to represent the broad themes of community feedback. This is far easier for a small agency staff or legislative office to handle than it would be for staffers to actually read through that many individual perspectives.</p>
<p>But what’s lost in this collapsing is individuality, personality and relationships. The reviewer of the condensed comments may miss the personal circumstances that led so many commenters to write in with a common point of view, and may overlook the arguments and anecdotes that might be the most persuasive content of the testimony. </p>
<p>Most importantly, the reviewers may miss out on the opportunity to recognize committed and knowledgeable advocates, whether interest groups or individuals, who could have long-term, productive relationships with the agency.</p>
<p>These drawbacks have real ramifications for the potential efficacy of those thousands of individual messages, undermining what all those people were doing it for. Still, practicality tips the balance toward of some kind of summarization approach. A passionate letter of advocacy doesn’t hold any value if regulators or legislators simply don’t have time to read it.</p>
<h2>Finding the signals and the noise</h2>
<p>There is another approach. In addition to collapsing testimony through summarization, government staff can use modern AI techniques to explode it. They can automatically recover and recognize a distinctive argument from one piece of testimony that does not exist in the thousands of other testimonies received. They can discover the kinds of constituent stories and experiences that legislators love to repeat at hearings, town halls and campaign events. This approach can sustain the potential impact of individual public comment to shape legislation even as the volumes of testimony may rise exponentially.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/peBF20nsya0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Representatives often use anecdotes from constituents to humanize issues.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In computing, there is a rich history of that type of automation task in what is called <a href="https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/outlier_detection.html">outlier detection</a>. Traditional methods generally involve finding a simple model that explains most of the data in question, like a set of topics that well describe the vast majority of submitted comments. But then they go a step further by isolating those data points that fall outside the mold — comments that don’t use arguments that fit into the neat little clusters.</p>
<p>State-of-the-art AI language models aren’t necessary for identifying outliers in text document data sets, but using them could bring a greater degree of sophistication and flexibility to this procedure. AI language models can be tasked to identify novel perspectives within a large body of text through prompting alone. You simply need to tell the AI to <a href="https://andrewmayneblog.wordpress.com/2021/04/18/the-gpt-3-zero-shot-approach/">find them</a>.</p>
<p>In the absence of that ability to extract distinctive comments, lawmakers and regulators have no choice but to prioritize on other factors. If there is nothing better, “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12266">who donated the most to our campaign</a>” or “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/698931">which company employs the most of my former staffers</a>” become reasonable metrics for prioritizing public comments. AI can help elected representatives do much better. </p>
<p>If Americans want AI to help revitalize the country’s ailing democracy, they need to think about how to align the incentives of elected leaders with those of individuals. Right now, as much as 90% of constituent communications are <a href="https://www.congressfoundation.org/news/blog/1637">mass emails</a> organized by advocacy groups, and they go largely ignored by staffers. People are channeling their passions into a vast digital warehouses where algorithms box up their expressions so they don’t have to be read. As a result, the incentive for citizens and advocacy groups is to fill that box up to the brim, so someone will notice it’s overflowing.</p>
<p>A talented, knowledgeable, engaged citizen should be able to articulate their ideas and share their personal experiences and distinctive points of view in a way that they can be both included with everyone else’s comments where they contribute to summarization and recognized individually among the other comments. An effective comment summarization process would extricate those unique points of view from the pile and put them into lawmakers’ hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207278/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Sanders is a volunteer contributor to the Massachusetts Platform for Legislative Engagement (MAPLE) project, and previously served as a fellow in the Massachusetts state legislature. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Schneier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Public comment could soon swamp government officials and representatives, thanks to AI, but AI could also help spot compelling stories from constituents.Bruce Schneier, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolNathan Sanders, Affiliate, Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2049252023-05-10T12:23:48Z2023-05-10T12:23:48ZMedia freedom and democracy: Africans in four countries weigh up thorny questions about state control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524888/original/file-20230508-213756-p9hzmh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democracy cannot survive without free media. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In July 2022, BBC Africa Eye released a documentary on gang activity in northwestern Nigeria. The programme, <a href="https://web.facebook.com/watch/?v=836558110682248">The Bandit Warlords of Zamfara</a>, examined the raids on villages, abductions and murders that have plagued swaths of the country. Notably, it included <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-fPEHUqhyA">interviews</a> with so-called bandits, who described their violent actions and laid out their grievances.</p>
<p>The Nigerian government responded furiously to the documentary’s airing. The minister of information, Lai Mohamed, called it “<a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/545568-nigerian-govt-threatens-to-sanction-bbc-trust-tv-for-airing-interviews-with-terrorists.html?tztc=1">a naked glorification of terrorism and banditry</a>”. The <a href="https://web.facebook.com/nbcgovng/?_rdc=1&_rdr">National Broadcasting Commission</a>, which regulates broadcasting, said it “<a href="https://dailytrust.com/nbc-fines-multichoice-startimes-others-over-documentary-on-banditry/">undermines national security in Nigeria</a>”. </p>
<p>The commission slapped <a href="https://dailytrust.com/nbc-fines-multichoice-startimes-others-over-documentary-on-banditry/">fines</a> of ₦5 million (about US$11,922) each on MultiChoice Nigeria Limited, NTA-Startimes Limited and TelCom Satellite Limited Trust Television Network for airing the programme. </p>
<p>The documentary, and the Nigerian government’s response to it, sparked a fierce debate over the limits of media freedoms. Some justified the fines, saying the BBC’s reporting was “<a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/opinion/545399-the-bbc-in-nigeria-between-reporting-and-propagating-terror-by-kadaria-ahmed.html?tztc=1">becoming a tool for terrorists</a>”. Others condemned the reporting as “<a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/08/06/the-bandit-warlords-of-zamfara-2/">whitewashing</a>” reality to serve the government and as <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-justification-for-fines-imposed-on-nigerias-media-houses-over-bandits-documentary-188839">undercutting the public’s right to learn</a>.</p>
<p>The debate gets to the heart of a question facing all democracies: when, if ever, should the government impose limits on media? </p>
<p>In 2021, I joined a team of researchers from Afrobarometer on a <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/NED-Confronting-Threats-Report-Final-Submission-26june22.pdf">project</a> to understand how citizens think about media freedom. <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/">Afrobarometer</a> is an independent, pan-African research organisation dedicated to the study of public opinion. In over a year, we focused on four countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/restricting-digital-media-is-a-gamble-for-african-leaders-159788">Restricting digital media is a gamble for African leaders</a>
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<p>We found that citizens in these countries cannot be simply characterised as either for or against media freedom. People who supported democracy were more supportive of protecting the media from government interference. But this group swung behind the need for censorship when it came to hate speech and false information.</p>
<h2>Thorny questions</h2>
<p>Thorny questions about media freedoms and democracy face other African countries too. On the one hand, empowering governments to limit media <a href="https://www.unesco.org/reports/world-media-trends/2021/en">might undermine fragile democracies</a> by allowing incumbents to squelch investigative reporting and opposition voices. </p>
<p>On the other hand, free media bring potential problems. These include <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/world/africa/russia-africa-disinformation.html">disinformation</a>, <a href="https://internews.org/story/hate-speech-heats-local-radio-kenya/">hate speech</a> and even calls to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/129/4/1947/1853091">violence</a>.</p>
<p>Our project sought to provide insights into how people from various African countries weigh these potential reasons for and against limiting media freedom. Are citizens more supportive of limits to particular kinds of content than others? And how do characteristics of individuals, such as their support for democracy, shape their attitudes about media?</p>
<p>These questions are important in light of <a href="https://theconversation.com/fresh-vigilance-is-needed-to-protect-media-freedom-across-africa-121030">recent declines in support for media freedom across Africa</a>, even as <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-squeeze-on-african-media-freedom/">attacks on those freedoms by governments increase</a>. For example, in 2022, dozens of journalists were arrested in <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/05/east-and-southern-africa-attacks-on-journalists-on-the-rise/">Ethiopia</a>, and more than 120 attacks on media houses and practitioners were documented in the <a href="https://jed-afrique.org/2022/11/01/rdc-situation-securitaire-alarmante-pour-les-journalistes-congolais/">Democratic Republic of Congo</a>. And new laws in countries like <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-announces-new-tough-rules-for-foreign-media/a-54528870">Tanzania</a> target foreign and independent media, often in the name of addressing misinformation and divisive messages.</p>
<h2>Limiting freedoms to protect democracy?</h2>
<p>To answer our questions, we conducted interviews with experts on media, using nationally representative phone surveys and focus groups. We also analysed data from <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/survey-resource/merged-round-8-data-34-countries-2022/">nationally representative surveys</a> Afrobarometer conducted in the four counties in 2019 and 2020.</p>
<p>Attitudes about democracy affected how citizens felt about the media. Those who thought positively about democracy and rejected non-democratic alternatives were more likely to agree with the statement:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The media should have the right to publish any views and ideas without government control.</p>
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<p>Democracy sceptics were more likely to agree with the alternate statement:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The government should have the right to prevent the media from publishing things that it disapproves of.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We delved deeper by providing different types of potentially problematic media content and measuring support for government censorship of each one. </p>
<p>Those who supported democracy were more likely to oppose the censorship of messages that a government disapproved of. In other words, supporting democracy again meant supporting media’s rights to share content that might upset those in power.</p>
<p>However, we found very different results when it came to two other kinds of content: hate speech and false information. </p>
<p>In these cases, people who were the most committed to democracy were the most likely to support censorship. Supporting democracy meant supporting restrictions on what the media could say.</p>
<h2>Justifying censorship for democratic ends</h2>
<p>We normally associate censorship with authoritarianism. What then explains why people who were most supportive of democracy were also most supportive of certain kinds of censorship? </p>
<p>We posit that Africans in the countries we studied actually found limiting certain content as necessary for defending democracy. Sixty per cent of our phone survey respondents told us that media spread too much hate speech. Such language can harm the public good by generating violence and disorder. But it can also lead to discrimination and other violations of individual rights central to democracy. </p>
<p>As one focus group participant in Lagos told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The pen is created for writing. But I can also use it to stab somebody. So, if it is misused, it becomes bad.</p>
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<p>Our study participants had similar concerns about false information. Just over 60% called it a problem. As a Ugandan from Rwampara district told us, media nowadays are </p>
<blockquote>
<p>all about the business, so much so that they have been known to report un-researched facts, and in other cases lied outright.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Democracy requires an informed citizenry, which false information undercuts. It is easy to see how many committed democrats might see censorship as a necessary step. </p>
<h2>Complicated paths forward</h2>
<p>Many of our study participants did see the dangers of empowering governments to censor media. Most who supported democracy erred on the side of supporting media’s right to produce content without serious limits. As a Kenyan participant put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If we are not careful about this, the steady erosion of media freedoms will continue and will end up in a bad place.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is clear to most that democracy cannot survive without free media. The challenge is that, in many citizens’ eyes, democracy cannot survive with it, either. Finding the right balance between freedom and limits remains one of the greatest challenges modern democracies face.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz received funding from the National Endowment for Democracy for this research.</span></em></p>Finding the right balance between media freedom and limits remains one of the greatest challenges modern democracies face.Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz, Associate Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036322023-04-12T11:49:58Z2023-04-12T11:49:58ZEssex pub dispute: do people really still think golliwogs are OK? I conducted a snap survey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520321/original/file-20230411-26-7ydbqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=57%2C33%2C2701%2C1402&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">CCTV footage shows officers seizing the dolls.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UnPWue0wrI">Youtube/SWNS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The landlady of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/11/essex-pub-landlady-benice-ryley-replaces-golliwog-doll-collection-that-was-seized-by-police">a pub in Essex</a> has been expressing bemusement about the complaints of “snowflakes” after her display of <a href="https://www.ferris.edu/jimcrow/golliwog/">golliwog dolls</a> attracted the attention of the county’s police – only for them to be told, reportedly by the home secretary Suella Braverman, that they shouldn’t be wasting their time on such <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/suella-braverman-makes-views-very-plain-to-police-over-golliwog-doll-seizure-from-essex-pub-12854721">“nonsense”</a>.</p>
<p>Six years ago, a not dissimilar incident unfolded in <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-me-golliwogs-are-racist-but-a-tearoom-tangle-and-a-new-poll-shows-britain-disagrees-84314">a cafe at the foot of the South Downs in Sussex</a>, where the proprietors’ insistence on displaying a golliwog behind the counter prompted a complaint from a dismayed member of what Braverman terms the <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11329469/Suella-Bravermans-tofu-eating-wokerati-rant-full.html">tofu-eating wokerati</a> (namely me). On that occasion, however, it was the proprietor who called the police on the snowflake – even if, much to my disappointment, they never turned up in the end.</p>
<p>That incident prompted me, with the help of the polling organisation YouGov, to do a spot of survey research on public attitudes to golliwogs in England, Scotland and Wales. Was I a hopelessly politically correct outlier? Could I possibly be entirely alone in feeling more than a little uncomfortable about them?</p>
<p>The results were, to use a cliche, shocking but not surprising, at least to me. It turned out that some 63% of the public didn’t think it was racist to sell or display a golliwog doll – although, interestingly, slightly fewer people (53%) thought it “acceptable” to do so. Those who thought it was racist made up just 20% of the sample, and those who thought it unacceptable 27%. The rest said they didn’t know.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-me-golliwogs-are-racist-but-a-tearoom-tangle-and-a-new-poll-shows-britain-disagrees-84314">To me, golliwogs are racist – but a tearoom tangle and a new poll shows Britain disagrees</a>
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<p>But that was then, this is now. The Black Lives Matter movement and the support given to it by prominent celebrities (not <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10033197/Tyrone-Mings-speaks-support-Black-Lives-Matter.html">least some English footballers</a>) has since loomed large in the national debate. Its advocates might reasonably expect attitudes to have shifted in their direction. And given there were pretty big differences between the attitudes of younger and older people in 2017, as well as between graduates and non-graduates, they might expect demographic change and the expansion in higher education to have helped too – if only at the margins.</p>
<p>YouGov was kind enough to <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c6f0hvav1l/YouGov_DQResults_Golliwogs_April23_W.pdf">repeat the exercise this week</a> to see whether such a shift had indeed occurred. And lo and behold, it had – although not for everyone.</p>
<p>Six years ago, a majority said selling or displaying a golliwog doll wasn’t racist. Now it’s a minority. True, that minority still makes up nearly half the population, but a 15-point drop from 63% to 48% in a little over half a decade seems pretty significant. Meanwhile, the proportion of people who think it is racist has gone up from a fifth to just over a quarter (from 20% to 27%), with another 25% (up from 17% in 2017) opting for “don’t know”.</p>
<p>There’s been a similar “progressive” shift when it comes to whether selling or displaying golliwogs is or isn’t acceptable. The proportion of people who think it is acceptable has dropped 14 points from 53% to just 39% since 2017, with the proportion who think it isn’t rising from 27% to 34%. There’s been an identical increase (from 20% to 27%) in those saying “don’t know”.</p>
<h2>The enduring divisions</h2>
<p>Age continues to play a huge part in all this: a stunning 74% of those aged 65 and over continue to insist that selling or displaying a golliwog isn’t racist – a view confined to a mere 13% of 18- to 24-year-olds.</p>
<p>Among the older group, 64% say it’s acceptable to display one. Only 10% of the younger group agree. Education also continues to matter: twice as many graduates (42% – up 11% on 2017) as non-graduates (21%) say it’s racist.</p>
<p>There are, too, significant differences on both counts between those living in an ethnically diverse city like London and other parts of the country, and between middle- and working-class people, with those living in the capital and middle-class people more likely to brand the selling or display of golliwogs as racist and unacceptable.</p>
<p>What’s most striking, though, is the difference partisanship still plays in people’s attitudes. Only 13% of Conservative supporters and people who voted leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum think selling or displaying golliwogs is racist.</p>
<p>That figure (more or less depressingly, depending on your point of view) represents an insignificant change on six years ago. It is also dwarfed by the 47% of Labour supporters and 42% of remain voters who think the same about displaying these dolls.</p>
<p>Essentially, when it comes to golliwogs at least, the times are changing. Unless, that is, you’re old, less-educated, a Tory, a “leaver”, or a certain pub owner in Essex – in which case you’re more likely to be heard singing the same old song, and will probably continue to do so until, eventually and inevitably, your voice falls silent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Bale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is the bemused owner of a collection of these dolls an outlier or representative of the British public?Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994842023-02-08T23:26:07Z2023-02-08T23:26:07ZSpy balloon drama elevates public attention, pressure for the US to confront China<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508957/original/file-20230208-25-vwyhez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Chinese spy balloon flies over Myrtle Beach, S.C., on Feb. 4, 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246809673/photo/us-has-shot-down-chinese-spy-balloon.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=4ssDJ2P2wGdpQeIZn1s4Py_QM1Bnb50XyZJXDVm0AEY=">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seven days after a Chinese spy balloon began drifting across the United States, the <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/">U.S. military downed it</a> with a single missile. </p>
<p>But the balloon, in a sense, continues its flight <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-briefed-40-nations-china-spy-balloon-incident-diplomats-official-say-2023-02-08/">through diplomatic circles,</a> complicating U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions.</p>
<p>One consequence is that the balloon <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-us-national-security/">may help shift</a> how Americans view China. </p>
<p><a href="http://ma-allen.com/">We are</a> <a href="https://www.carlamm.com/">political science scholars</a> and <a href="https://www.m-flynn.com/">U.S. foreign policy</a> experts who recently published <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/beyond-the-wire-9780197633403?lang=en&cc=cl">a book about U.S. overseas military deployments</a>. In it, we discuss how U.S. military bases might change with a more powerful China expanding its influence.</p>
<p>The balloon incident is an example of mounting tensions and espionage between China and the U.S. – but it is different largely because it took place in public, occurred over U.S. territory and the subsequent diplomatic tiff received a lot of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/spy-balloon-chinese-trump-shot-b2278238.html">media coverage</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="About 10 people wearing heavy clothing and camo sit on a small boat and lean over a large white plastic sheet, which has black sticks and white strings throughout." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508959/original/file-20230208-25-lydj6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. sailors recover a high-altitude surveillance balloon on Feb. 5, 2023, off the coast of South Carolina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246870327/photo/recovery-of-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=_xUjfvH28jZ5pLUXe1RaUyKH_pJPOj_ItX3QD5CtzH4=">Petty Officer 1st Class Tyler Thompson/U.S. Navy via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Spying is routine</h2>
<p>China’s balloon entered U.S. airspace over the Aleutian Islands in Alaska on Jan. 28, 2023, and then made its way to Montana. On Feb. 3, as Montana residents spotted and asked questions about this <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/thats-not-the-moon-montana-residents-spot-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon/vi-AA175h6M">“weird thing”</a> in the sky, U.S. officials <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-antony-blinken-china-314302278a5f05bdc2df146ed5b35ec6">publicly acknowledged</a> the balloon. That same day, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china-expresses-regret-that-civilian-airship-strays-over-us-2023-02-03/">canceled an upcoming diplomatic</a> trip to Beijing. </p>
<p>While the U.S. has said <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-carried-antennas-other-equipment-to-gather-intelligence-u-s-says-11675953033">it has evidence</a> that the balloon carried antennas and other equipment to gather intelligence, China has maintained that the vessel is used to <a href="https://portal.tds.net/news/read/article/newser-china_doubles_down_on_weather_balloon_claim-rnewsersyn/vendor/Newser">track weather</a>. </p>
<p>A United States Air Force F-22 Raptor <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3288543/f-22-safely-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-south-carolina-coast/">shot down</a> the balloon with a missile off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4.</p>
<p>Recently, <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3288618/senior-defense-official-and-senior-military-official-hold-an-off-camera-on-back/">senior U.S. defense officials acknowledged</a> that China had targeted several countries worldwide in a similar way over recent years.</p>
<p>While public awareness of specific cases might be new, spying between countries is not. The U.S. has been <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/julius-and-ethel-rosenberg">both the target</a> and the <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/u-2-spy-plane-incident">agent of an increasing amount of espionage</a>.</p>
<p>Countries routinely spy on one another to gather information. In fact, governments often rely on secret agents to collect and report information about both their rivals and allies. In other cases, they may monitor electronic communications. <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/space/2022/08/04/us-spy-agency-sends-another-satellite-to-space-in-show-of-rapid-launch-capability/">Wealthier countries may also</a> use high-altitude surveillance aircraft, like the balloon China floated over the U.S., or orbiting satellites to collect photographic or other intelligence on various targets. </p>
<p>In some cases, governments may want information on enemy troop positions or movements. They may also want information on other aspects of their enemy’s capabilities. For example, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-china-19e1f66a6db19f44548c402d81facc8e">several U.S. officials expressed concern</a> that one suspected target of the Chinese spy balloon was Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, <a href="https://www.ktvq.com/news/local-news/montanas-150-missile-sites-in-line-for-replacement-as-chinese-spy-balloon-questions-remain">which houses nuclear missile</a> silos.</p>
<h2>Espionage can make war less likely</h2>
<p>Countries <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300246742/arms-and-influence/">care about gathering information</a> on each other because it can give them an advantage over their rivals. But rivals having more information is not always a bad thing.</p>
<p>In political science, we often think of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/rationalist-explanations-for-war/E3B716A4034C11ECF8CE8732BC2F80DD">conflict as a bargain</a> over how to divide something – be it territory and resources, or policy and political control. </p>
<p>War often happens when states cannot agree on dividing these types of things. The problem is that war can be an inefficient way of resolving disputes because it destroys resources – both wealth and often human lives. </p>
<p>Why, then, do countries fight wars? </p>
<p>One argument is that countries may have <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/rationalist-explanations-for-war/E3B716A4034C11ECF8CE8732BC2F80DD">different information</a> from their opponents. They may overestimate their capabilities or underestimate those of the opponent. </p>
<p>Because countries generally have an incentive to bluff or act stronger than they really are, they also have the incentive to gather private information from their rivals. </p>
<p>Espionage may then serve the purpose of making the probability of <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v65y2021i9p1551-1575.html">war less likely</a> by preventing miscalculations. It lets governments gain information about each other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691184241">without pressure from hawkish groups</a> to escalate confrontations. </p>
<p>We know also know from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720957713">our research</a> that the U.S. sometimes willingly shares information about its own capabilities with rival militaries as a way to deter them from initiating conflict. </p>
<h2>Under pressure</h2>
<p>Before the balloon incident, much of the increasing tension between the U.S. and China had been relatively abstract or remote in most Americans’ eyes. But a Chinese spy balloon drifting directly over U.S. is a material object people saw with their own eyes.</p>
<p>Suddenly, the United States’ action – or inaction – over what to do with the balloon became a hotly debated topic. President Joe Biden’s Republican opponents <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3844665-cotton-suggests-biden-administration-delayed-shooting-down-balloon-to-salvage-blinken-trip-to-china/">criticized his timing as late</a> in shooting down the balloon. Former President Donald Trump claimed that <a href="https://www.salon.com/2023/02/06/seethes-on-truth-social-after-pentagon-says-chinese-spy-balloons-flew-over-us-on-his-watch/">no such balloon would fly over</a> the U.S. under his administration – despite <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chinese-spy-balloons-over-us-during-trump-admin-discovered-after-he-left-office-senior-biden-official">evidence indicating</a> three such balloons flew undetected at the time.</p>
<p>While Americans have become <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/28/some-americans-views-of-china-turned-more-negative-after-2020-but-others-became-more-positive/">increasingly suspicious of China’s role in the world</a>, the country <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/american-public-divided-cooperating-confronting-china">has been divided</a> on how the U.S. should confront the risk.</p>
<p>More than three-quarters of U.S. adults have expressed an unfavorable opinion of China since 2020, according to a Pew Research Center survey in September 2022. This number has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/28/some-americans-views-of-china-turned-more-negative-after-2020-but-others-became-more-positive/">continued to rise</a> since 2005. </p>
<p>And in 2021, 45% of Americans said that <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/337457/new-high-perceptions-china-greatest-enemy.aspx">China is the greatest enemy</a> of the U.S. – more than double the percentage who said so in 2020, according to a Gallup poll.</p>
<p>The balloon, whatever the intent of those who launched it, left the U.S. little choice but to down it – in order to both end the balloon’s intelligence gathering and mollify domestic critics. </p>
<p>While China has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wants-suspected-spy-balloon-us-shot-down-returned-2023-2">asked for the balloon back</a> intact, countries often <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/research/online-documents/u2-incident/5-10-60-state-telegram.pdf">pore over</a> and <a href="https://www.history.com/news/uss-pueblo-north-korea-united-states-spy-ship-capture">examine captured spy</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-hi-tech-warfare-system-seized-ukraine-hold-military-secrets-2022-3">military equipment</a> thoroughly before returning it to the country of origin. Some countries may even <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/01/23/580076540/looking-at-the-saga-of-the-uss-pueblo-50-years-later">refuse to return</a> seized equipment. The U.S. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bdf29ea5-bfdf-43f6-a845-38788544fdab">has said</a> it will not return the balloon. </p>
<p>So while espionage can reduce the chances of conflict by providing more information on a rival’s capabilities, getting caught can affect other parts of the bargaining process that make conflict more likely. Public outcry may force leaders to take a harder stand in future interactions with their spying rival. At present, the balloon incident has deflated political <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/situation-china-tense-u-looking-162446922.html">support for further cooperation with China</a> and increases the likelihood of further confrontation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older white man stands against a bright blue sky and talks to people, whose hands and voice recorders or phones are only visible." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508960/original/file-20230208-23-j9wvvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Joe Biden speaks to reporters about the surveillance balloon on Feb. 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246795543/photo/us-politics-biden-security-balloon.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=0wM_CCuclU40hRZWN9zSKg5J94DM-3mH12haQhB0U3w=">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The latest incident between US and China</h2>
<p>The balloon incident may have surprised the U.S. population, but it fits the recent pattern of interactions between the U.S. and China. </p>
<p>The Trump administration engaged in a <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-trade-war-timeline-date-guide">trade war with China</a>, and though there were some steps toward better relations with a new trade agreement, the emergence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2021.0011">COVID-19 created new conflict between the countries</a>. China was not <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/27/fauci-china-covid-lab-leak-theory-00070867">fully transparent about what happened</a> early during the pandemic. Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-lab-claim">claimed to have evidence</a> that the virus originated in a Chinese lab (though <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3">most scientists</a> believe it to have had natural origins). </p>
<p>A few days before leaving office, Trump administration officials <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/determination-of-the-secretary-of-state-on-atrocities-in-xinjiang/index.html">accused China of committing genocide</a> against <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10281">the Uyghurs</a> – a Muslim ethnic minority group of people who predominantly live in China’s northwest. </p>
<p>While the Biden administration has seemed less confrontational toward China than the previous administration, it maintained many of the Trump-era policies on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/china-tariffs-biden-policy/index.html">trade</a> – keeping tariffs against China in place – and the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/biden-boycott-2022-beijing-winter-olympics">Uyghurs</a>. Biden <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/23/statement-first-anniversary-president-biden-signing-uyghur-forced-labor-prevention">signed a law in 2021</a> that prevents the import of any Chinese products made with forced labor by the more than <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights">1 million Uyghur people that China</a> has illegally detained.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s Note: This story was updated on Feb. 9, 2023 to include China’s characterization of the balloon.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199484/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael A. Allen has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. Part of the work mentioned in here was funded by these organizations. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla Martinez Machain has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. Part of the work mentioned in here was funded by these organizations. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E Flynn has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. Part of the work mentioned in here was funded by these organizations. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.</span></em></p>Espionage routinely plays out between countries like the US and China. But a public spectacle like the Chinese spy balloon can change the game.Michael A. Allen, Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityCarla Martinez Machain, Professor of Political Science, University at BuffaloMichael E. Flynn, Associate Professor of Political Science, Kansas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948792022-11-17T21:22:01Z2022-11-17T21:22:01ZHow same-sex marriage gained bipartisan support – a decadeslong process has brought it close to being written into federal law<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495987/original/file-20221117-23-l4fall.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People gather to celebrate LGBTQ pride week in Washington, D.C. in June 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1323248787/photo/washington-dc-celebrates-pride-2021.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=or_kRhEqEgdTtx_25mjBc7OpCq_B1pj8mGr88OAjY6Y=">Paul Morigi/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-abortion-became-divisive-issue-us-politics-2022-06-24/">public opinion</a> and <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws">different state laws</a> on abortion rights are sharply dividing the country, there’s growing indication that most people agree on another once-controversial topic – protecting same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>The U.S. Senate <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3738525-senate-votes-to-advance-same-sex-marriage-bill/">voted on Nov. 16, 2022</a>, to initiate debate on legislation that would protect same-sex and interracial marriage, making it legal regardless of where these couples live and what state laws determine. </p>
<p>Senators voted 62-37 to move forward on a final vote for the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404">Respect for Marriage Act</a>, with 12 Republicans joining Democrats in their support for the bill. </p>
<p>The legislation would also repeal the 1996 <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act</a>, a federal law that defines marriage as the legal union between a man and a woman.</p>
<p>The U.S. House of Representatives already voted on July 19, 2022, to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404/text?r=1&s=1">enshrine same-sex marriage </a> into law with a bipartisan vote – all 220 Democratic representatives voted in favor, joined by 47 Republican colleagues. </p>
<p><a href="https://academics.morris.umn.edu/tim-lindberg">I am a scholar</a> of political behavior and history in the U.S. I believe that it’s important to understand that the bipartisan support for this bill marks a significant political transformation on same-sex marriage, which was used as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096505056295">contentious point</a> separating Democrats and Republicans roughly 15 to 20 years ago.</p>
<p>But over the past several years, same-sex marriage has become less politically divisive and gained more public approval, driven in part by former President Donald Trump’s general <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/16/republicans-gay-marriage-wars-505041">acceptance of the practice</a>. This environment made it politically safe for nearly a quarter of Republican House members to vote to protect this right under federal law. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A middle aged white woman with blonde hair and a blue pantsuit walks through a room, with other younger women at her side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495984/original/file-20221117-25-luwt4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is one of the 12 Republican lawmakers who voted to advance the same-sex marriage bill on Nov. 16, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1442021062/photo/senate-votes-on-same-sex-marriage-equality-bill.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=v4sctFA99ZLcKMvkcn17X6GiI7XrlcaMoGie4GvVJmM=">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What makes opinions change?</h2>
<p>Seventy-one percent of Americans say they support legal same-sex marriage, according to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/393197/same-sex-marriage-support-inches-new-high.aspx">July 2022 Gallup poll</a>. In 1996, when Gallup first polled about same-sex marriage, 27% supported legalization of same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>This shift in public opinion has happened despite increasing polarization in the U.S. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/in-a-politically-polarized-era-sharp-divides-in-both-partisan-coalitions/">about gun control, racial justice</a> and climate change.</p>
<p>What becomes, remains or ceases to be a divisive political issue in the U.S. over time depends on many factors. Changes to laws, shifting cultural norms and technological progress can all shape political controversies.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898030619000277">My research, for example, explores</a> how Mormons in Utah territory – what would later become Utah state – were denied statehood by Congress until they gave up their religious belief in polygamy. Polygamy was outlawed under U.S. law, and known polygamists were excluded from voting and holding office. In the 1880s, <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">an estimated 20% to 30%</a> of Mormons practiced polygamy. Yet, political pressure led the Mormon Church president in 1890 to <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-polygamy-and-its-history-in-the-mormon-church-81384">announce</a> that polygamy would no longer be sanctioned. </p>
<p>In 2011, <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2012/1/15/20244382/mormons-say-polygamy-morally-wrong-pew-poll-shows">86% of Mormon adults reported that they consider polygamy morally wrong</a>, nearly in line with <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/214601/moral-acceptance-polygamy-record-high-why.aspx">general public opinion</a>. </p>
<p>Many political leaders, both on the left and right, were also largely hostile to same-sex marriage <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/high-profile-politicians-changed-positions-gay-marriage/story?id=18740293">until the early 2010s.</a> </p>
<h2>A rising controversy</h2>
<p>In 1993, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/31/issenberg-book-excerpt-bill-woods-honolulu-doma-491401">state must have a compelling reason to ban same-sex marriage</a>, after a gay male couple and two lesbian couples <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/07/us/in-hawaii-step-toward-legalized-gay-marriage.html">filed a suit</a> that a state ban on same-sex marriage violated their privacy and equal protection rights. </p>
<p>Concern among conservatives that this legal reasoning would lead the Supreme Court to acknowledge a right to same-sex marriage led to a <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/how-and-why-doma-became-law-1996-msna20387">Republican Senator and Congressman</a> introducing the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/defense_of_marriage_act_(doma)">Defense of Marriage Act</a>.</p>
<p>President Bill Clinton signed the bill in 1996 after <a href="https://law.jrank.org/pages/6038/Defense-Marriage-Act-1996.html">342 – or 78% – of House members and 85 senators</a> voted for it. Polling at the time showed support among the general population for same-sex marriage was <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/210566/support-gay-marriage-edges-new-high.aspx">27% overall, including just 33% among Democrats</a>. </p>
<p>Seven years later, in 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Court struck down a <a href="http://masscases.com/cases/sjc/440/440mass309.html">state ban on same-sex marriage</a>. With a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">strong majority nationally of Republicans and independents opposed to same-sex marriage</a>, former President George W. Bush used conservative reactions to that decision to encourage voter turnout in 2004. <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/GAY-MARRIAGE-Did-issue-help-re-elect-Bush-2677003.php">Bush’s campaign highlighted state amendments to ban same-sex marriage</a>, all of which easily passed. </p>
<p>Although voters prioritized <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1540-8884.1056">other issues</a> in the 2004 elections, the opposition to same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.2202/1540-8884.1058/html">helped Bush win reelection</a>, while Republicans picked up seats in both the House and Senate.</p>
<h2>A political change</h2>
<p>The legal and political landscape on same-sex marriage <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/24/same-sex-marriage-timeline/29173703/">became much more liberal</a> in the years following 2004. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/prop-8-passed-california-gay-marriage">In 2008,</a> state courts in California and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/nyregion/11marriage.html">Connecticut struck down</a> bans on same-sex marriage. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gaymarriage-vermont/vermont-becomes-4th-u-s-state-to-allow-gay-marriage-idUSTRE53648V20090407">Vermont became</a> the first state in 2009 to pass legislation and legalize same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>A major national shift occurred in 2012 <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-biden-forced-hand-on-same-sex-marriage-but-alls-well/">when then-Vice President Joe Biden</a> and President Barack Obama openly supported same-sex marriage. This was a major change for both men. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/22/politics/marriage-equality-congress-evolution/index.html">Biden had voted in favor of the Defense of Marriage Act</a>in 1996. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/dissecting-president-obamas-evolution-gay-marriage/story?id=18792720">Obama publicly supported</a> marriage as being between a man and a woman in his 2004 senatorial campaign.</p>
<p>In 2015, the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/14-556">struck down</a> all national and state restrictions on same-sex marriage, making same-sex marriage the law of the land.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The White House is shown at night, light up with rainbow colors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476966/original/file-20220801-67954-kemfwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainbow-colored lights shine on the White House after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of same-sex marriage in June 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/rainbowcolored-lights-shine-on-the-white-house-to-celebrate-todays-us-picture-id478678270?s=2048x2048">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Trump effect</h2>
<p>The lack of attention Trump paid to same-sex marriage is one factor that contributed to it becoming a less divisive issue. While Trump’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/24/absurb-claim-that-trump-is-most-pro-gay-president-american-history/">actual record on LBGTQ rights</a> generally aligns with conservative Christian values, Trump had said in 2016 that he was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-same-sex-marriage-231310">“fine” with legalizing same-sex marriage</a>. </p>
<p>Still, despite the legality of same-sex marriage, many conservative Midwestern and Southern states <a href="https://www.hrc.org/resources/state-maps">deny other legal protections</a> to LBGTQ persons. Twenty-nine states still allow licensed professionals to conduct youth gay-conversion therapy, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/07/health/conversion-therapy-personal-and-financial-harm/index.html">a discredited process to convert LGBTQ people into no longer being queer</a>. </p>
<p>More than 20 states allow discrimination in <a href="https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/non_discrimination_laws">both housing</a> and public accommodations based on sexual orientation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign that says 'every child deserves a mom and dad'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476998/original/file-20220801-70473-f142qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman participates in a protest in Washington after the Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/opponents-of-samesex-marriage-demonstrate-near-the-supreme-court-28-picture-id471432028?s=2048x2048">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Respect for marriage</h2>
<p>Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski, representing Alaska, are among <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3739118-these-12-gop-senators-voted-for-same-sex-marriage-bill/">the 12 moderate Republican politicians</a> who voted to advance the same-sex marriage bill.</p>
<p>“I have long supported marriage equality and believe all lawful marriages deserve respect,” Murkowski said in a statement on Nov. 16, 2022. “All Americans deserve dignity, respect and equal protection under the law.” </p>
<p>Some Republican leaders, though, have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/us/politics/after-roe-republicans-sharpen-attacks-on-gay-and-transgender-rights.html">grown bolder </a>in their opposition to same-sex marriage since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision. </p>
<p>These Republicans have said that codifying federal law same-sex marriage is <a href="https://www.vox.com/23274491/senate-republicans-same-sex-marriage-bill-respect-for-marriage-act">not necessary</a> since they don’t believe the Supreme Court is likely to overturn federal protections for same-sex marriage. </p>
<p>Democrats first moved to protect same-sex marriage in federal law because Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in a concurring opinion in the Dobbs case that the court <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256">should reconsider,</a> “all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell,” the latter being the case that legalized same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>But despite public opinion polls showing that most people favor legalizing same-sex marriage – including <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/311672/support-sex-marriage-matches-record-high.aspx">nearly half</a> of Republicans – the issue could still be a liability for Republican politicians. </p>
<p>Should the Senate approve the bill – it is to hold a final vote by the end of November 2022 – Republicans will then have to answer to their core conservative constituents who largely oppose the practice. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3570528-same-sex-marriage-debate-poses-problems-for-republicans/">This could mean</a> that Senate Republicans may have to consider splitting from their own base, or stepping away from moderate voters. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-is-considering-making-same-sex-marriage-federal-law-a-political-scientist-explains-how-this-issue-became-less-polarized-over-time-187509">article originally published on Aug. 2, 2022</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Lindberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. Senate voted to advance a bill that protect same-sex marriage by a wide margin– thanks to support from 12 Republicans. Same-sex marriage isn’t the partisan issue it once was.Tim Lindberg, Assistant professor, political science , University of MinnesotaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1947002022-11-17T17:03:59Z2022-11-17T17:03:59ZSome midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495751/original/file-20221116-24-l5jodd.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5427%2C3588&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022NewHampshireSenate/a8681d6dd9ff4d26b121a95fc35f7043/photo?Query=Maggie%20Hassan&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=740&currentItemNo=14">AP Photo/Charles Krupa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-memories-of-embarrassments-still-fresh-election-pollsters-face-big-tests-in-2022-midterm-elections-192700">midterm</a> elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.</p>
<p>In an allusion to polling’s stunning misfires of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/">2016</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-polls-in-2020-produced-error-of-unusual-magnitude-expert-panel-finds-without-pinpointing-cause-164759">2020</a>, Joshua Dyck, director of the opinion research center at UMass Lowell, <a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/11/10/midterm-polls-red-trickle-experts/">asserted</a> as the 2022 results became known: “The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.”</p>
<p>Nate Silver, a prominent data journalist and election forecaster, <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1590461764516610048">took to Twitter</a> to proclaim the 2022 midterms were “one of the most accurate years for polling ever.”</p>
<p>Yet, a sense of doubt lingered: While they did not repeat their <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">failures</a> in recent national elections, polls in 2022 were more spotty than spectacular in their accuracy, and performance assessments often depended on which poll was consulted. Or perhaps more precisely, on which polling aggregation site was consulted. <a href="https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Poll-Aggregators.aspx">Aggregators</a> typically compile and analyze results reported by a variety of pollsters. They often adjust the composite data to emphasize findings of recently completed surveys or to minimize effects of unusual or “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-handle-an-outlier-poll/">outlier</a>” polls.</p>
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<h2>Misses, near and far</h2>
<p>As compiled by the widely followed <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/">RealClearPolitics</a> site, polls collectively missed the margins of victory by more than 4 percentage points in key 2022 Senate races in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/nh/new-hampshire-senate-bolduc-vs-hassan-7379.html">New Hampshire</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html">Pennsylvania</a> and Washington.</p>
<p>Differences between polling averages and outcomes were especially striking in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Washington, where incumbents won easily. In gubernatorial races, deviations from polling averages of 4 percentage points or more figured in the outcomes in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/az/arizona_governor_lake_vs_hobbs-7842.html">Arizona</a>, Colorado, Florida, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/mi/michigan_governor_dixon_vs_whitmer-7545.html">Michigan</a>, Pennsylvania and <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_michels_vs_evers-7761.html">Wisconsin</a>.</p>
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<p>Forecasts posted at Silver’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight.com</a> diverged from outcomes somewhat less markedly than those of RealClearPolitics — but still anticipated closer Senate races than what transpired in Colorado, New Hampshire and <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/">Pennsylvania</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/us/politics/democrats-midterm-elections.html">Expectations</a> that Republicans would score sweeping victories no doubt were buoyed by the <a href="https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1590034788345614342">predictions</a> of RealClearPolitics. It projected that the GOP stood to gain three Senate seats and control the upper house by 53 seats to 47 — an outcome that proved illusory.</p>
<p>While hedged, the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/">final, so-called “Deluxe” forecast</a> posted at Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com and updated on Election Day did little to dampen expectations of a GOP wave. The forecast said Republicans had a 59% chance of winning control of the Senate.</p>
<p>“To be blunt,” Silver <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/">wrote</a>, “59 percent is enough of an edge that if you offered to let me bet on Republicans at even money, I’d take it.”</p>
<h2>Elections and polling controversies</h2>
<p>To say that polling performance was spotty in 2022 is not to say that election surveys were all off-target. </p>
<p>Far from it. </p>
<p>The final <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-toplines.html">Siena College/New York Times surveys</a>, for example, accurately signaled the direction of Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.</p>
<p>Even so, as I noted in my book, “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>, "It is a rare election that does not produce polling controversies of some sort.” And that’s not so surprising, given that polls are conducted by a variety of public entities, some of which have partisan orientations. </p>
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<p>This time, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/upshot/polling-averages-midterm-election.html">controversy</a> swirled around Republican-leaning pollsters such as <a href="https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/">Trafalgar Group</a> and the inclusion of those polls in averages compiled by RealClearPolitics. Incorporating such data, <a href="https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-pollsters-got-the-midterms-right">critics claimed</a>, led RealClearPolitics to overstate Republican prospects. The senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/17/what_happened_148483.html">disputed</a> such an interpretation as a “theory that doesn’t work well.”</p>
<p><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/trafalgar-group-founder-robert-cahaly-on-the-2022-midterms.html">Trafalgar</a>, which in 2021 had been rated <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/">A-minus</a> for accuracy by FiveThirtyEight.com, saw its surveys <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html">conspicuously misfire</a> in 2022. In New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, for example, Trafalgar’s final pre-election poll indicated that Republican Don Bolduc <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-hampshire-could-see-general-election-as-bolduc-takes-lead-in-trafalgar-daily-wire-poll">had taken a narrow lead</a>. Bolduc <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2022/state/nh/senate/">lost</a> to incumbent Maggie Hassan by 9 percentage points.</p>
<p>Trafalgar also estimated that Republican Tudor Dixon <a href="https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/MI-Gen-Poll-Report-1107.pdf">held a slim lead</a> at campaign’s end over Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan. Whitmer won by 10.5 points.</p>
<p>Those were no small misses, and Trafalgar’s inaccuracies attracted criticism even from friendly sources. “They were not reliable indicators of what was to come,” <a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/11/after-last-night-41.php">wrote</a> Scott Johnson at the Republican-oriented “Powerline” blog. Trafalgar did not respond to an email seeking comments about its 2022 polling performance.</p>
<p>Polling misses tended to be bipartisan, though. <a href="https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf">Data for Progress</a>, a Democratic-leaning pollster <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/data-for-progress/">graded as a “B”</a> in 2021 by FiveThirtyEight, <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2022/11/8/final-battleground-polls-arizona-georgia-nevada-new-hampshire-wisconsin-ohio-colorado-north-carolina-florida-and-oregon-polls">estimated closer Senate races</a> than what transpired in Colorado and New Hampshire, and signaled the wrong winners in Arizona and Nevada.</p>
<p>Data for Progress nonetheless seemed eager to assert success for its polls, posting online what appeared to be an <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2444/Webpage_pollsters.pdf?1668776027">incomplete draft of a post-election news release</a> that said it “outperformed the polling averages, and was more accurate than any other pollster” in the midterms. The draft contained several placeholders marked “xx,” indicating where data points were to be inserted. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Advertisement that says 'The Gallup Poll Sets a New Record for Election Accuracy!'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1940, Gallup crowed about the accuracy of its polling in an ad in the newspaper industry publication Editor & Publisher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screenshot, Editor & Publisher, 11/9/1940</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pollsters not shy about congratulating selves</h2>
<p>So, what can be taken away from polls of the 2022 midterms?</p>
<p>The outcomes confirmed anew that election polling is an uneven and high-risk pursuit, especially at a time when some pollsters are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/24/opinion/frustrated-with-polling-pollsters-are-too.html">experimenting</a> with new methodologies to reach would-be respondents while others are still relying on traditional, telephone-based techniques.</p>
<p>The 2022 outcomes also confirmed a self-congratulatory impulse that is never very distant for practitioners in a field that has known much error and disappointment. </p>
<p>Pollsters are not necessarily shy about boasting if their estimates are reasonably close to election results. This tendency has been apparent intermittently for more than 80 years, since George Gallup placed double-page ads in Editor & Publisher magazine in 1940 and 1944 to proclaim the accuracy of his polls in presidential elections those years.</p>
<p>The midterms also confirmed the news media’s insatiable appetite for poll results. Fresh polling data — much of it produced or commissioned by news outlets themselves — seemed inescapable during the closing days of the 2022 campaign. As they usually do in national elections, polls <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3732986-what-happened-expectations-polls-and-the-red-mirage/">shaped expectations</a> which, in some cases, faded as votes were counted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1945072022-11-17T16:48:56Z2022-11-17T16:48:56ZYoung U.S. voters reduced the ‘Red Wave’ to a ‘Pink Splash’ in the midterm elections — why didn’t polls predict it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495671/original/file-20221116-25-3t8i35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5465%2C3640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young voter fills out her ballot at a polling site in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Nov. 8, 2022. Public polling underestimated the strength of the youth vote in the recent U.S. midterms.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/young-u-s--voters-reduced-the--red-wave--to-a--pink-splash--in-the-midterm-elections-—-why-didn-t-polls-predict-it" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It increasingly seems that projections of election results based on public polling are unreliable. The 2022 midterm elections in the United States are a prime example.</p>
<p>Americans appeared set to vote Republican en masse — in a so-called “Red Wave” — on the morning of Nov. 8. </p>
<p>Amid <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/voters-under-40-apathetic-towards-biden-concerned-about-inflation-ahead-of-midterms.html">high inflation, a precarious House of Representatives majority and low approval ratings for President Joe Biden</a>, a perfect storm was brewing. Polls suggested a huge Republican win was imminent and the party was poised to secure control of the House and the Senate with a sizeable majority. </p>
<p>We now know those predictions did not materialize. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/republicans-win-house-majority/">Democrats held onto the Senate and almost held onto the House</a>. Republican results were lacklustre at best. </p>
<p>Youth voters have been hailed as the catalyst that turned the <a href="https://time.com/6231293/red-wave-pink-splash-election-republicans/">Red Wave into a “Pink Splash</a>.” <a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center">Twenty-seven per cent of voters aged 18-29</a> cast a ballot — the second highest youth voter turnout in nearly 30 years. Further still, roughly 63 per cent of youth voters backed Democratic candidates — the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590369271125008385"}"></div></p>
<p>The reality of election results and the glaring absence of youth voter impact on projections begs the question: are we accurately capturing public opinion?</p>
<h2>What went wrong for pollsters</h2>
<p>Historically, there are two methods determining election result projections: <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/11/07/the-final-forecasts-of-the-2022-election-00065376">statistical models</a> based on trends and political theory or probability sampling. Regardless of the framework, these predictions rely on one thing: accurately representing public opinion. </p>
<p>Though voting methods have slowly begun to adapt to the technological societal shift, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/08/online-voting-304013">such as online options in 2020</a>, public opinion polling remains rooted in the past. </p>
<p>Despite its vital importance to determining election forecasts, the presidential approval rating is <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/101872/how-does-gallup-polling-work.aspx">“based on interviews conducted by landline and cellular telephones.”</a> Similarly, while probability sampling often relies on aggregating data from several sources, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/27/phone-polling-crisis-1191637">most major media polls are conducted using a traditional phone methodology</a>. </p>
<p>Pop culture is ripe with anecdotes of people ignoring “cold calls,” yet public polling efforts continue to engage — or, rather, disengage — youth voters by failing to understand where they spend their time online.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman is photographed from behind opening the TikTok app on her smartphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495687/original/file-20221116-12-30ja91.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pollsters are failing to engage young voters in places where they spend their time online.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do young voters engage?</h2>
<p>In the wake of U.S. midterms results that stunned political analysts, social media buzzed with commentary from young voters. </p>
<p>One user wrote: “Before the next election, you might want to find a better way to poll anyone under the age of 30 since they would rather pick up a pinless grenade than a call from an unknown number.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1590223092315750403"}"></div></p>
<p>Of course, this was intended as a joke, but there is some factual basis in the sentiment. Millennials have already been blamed for <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/briannawiest/2019/11/04/millennials-hate-phone-calls-they-have-a-point/?sh=3929a57b517e">the death of the phone call</a>, with <a href="https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/why-millennials-ignore-calls#data">75 per cent finding them “too time-consuming” and 81 per cent admitting to feelings of anxiety before making a call.</a> </p>
<p>In any other industry, this data would signal an immediate need to pivot to a digital platform. </p>
<h2>Engaging in the right place</h2>
<p>The question of public engagement goes beyond “how” citizens are being polled. It must also ask “where.”</p>
<p>It’s not enough to simply shift polling methods from telephone-based to online. The platform where engagement happens matters. </p>
<p>Though some pollsters administered online surveys, often these were via traditional news sources. For an opinion poll to be arbitrarily administered within the same echo chamber of legacy media doesn’t bridge the gap that exists in elections data. </p>
<p>The way each generation consumes content online, particularly news, changes rapidly. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/technology/gen-z-tiktok-search-engine.html">More than 40 per cent of Gen Zers report TikTok as their preference for online searches</a>, even over Google. Increasingly, advertisers have begun to embed their consumer polling through platforms like YouTube and TikTok. </p>
<p>Other political outreach organizations have begun to recognize this and adapt their methodology. </p>
<p>In late August 2022, Élections Québec launched a <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@electionsquebec">TikTok campaign</a> to generate interest in the provincial election. Playing into viral videos (<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@electionsquebec/video/7145604051676253446?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1">like the so-called “corn kid”</a>), some of its content garnered more than 350,000 views. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/495520/original/file-20221115-20-g9ji9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A TikTok screenshot shows the Élections Québec youth vote campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite predictions of a low voter turnout in Québec, <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/voter-turnout-in-2022-quebec-election-on-par-with-2018-1.6095056">66 per cent of the total population voted</a>.</p>
<p>While it’s difficult to empirically measure the impact of this specific political outreach method on election results, the sheer engagement on the platform and youth voter turnout speaks volumes. </p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Above all else, the 2022 U.S. midterms offer a positive glimpse into the future. No longer can young voters be cast as apathetic and disconnected. </p>
<p>There’s now a generational shift away from voter apathy, which is beneficial across the political spectrum. </p>
<p>The disconnected, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion. </p>
<p>The “Pink Splash” offers a tough lesson in engagement for pollsters. If they continue to use traditional methods, election polls will never provide an accurate representation of what’s going to happen when voters cast their ballots.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Rodgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.Julia Rodgers, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930072022-10-31T12:35:35Z2022-10-31T12:35:35ZWho sees what you flush? Wastewater surveillance for public health is on the rise, but a new survey reveals many US adults are still unaware<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492137/original/file-20221027-41745-jsbvpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=582%2C97%2C4809%2C3492&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Whether a wastewater sample is taken at the street level or a treatment plant affects the size of the group of people it represents.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Louisville</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flush and forget? Not if you have a toilet that flushes to one of <a href="https://arcg.is/1aummW">over 3,000 sites around the world</a> where researchers are using wastewater to track SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestwater.1c00405">what do members of the public actually know</a> about wastewater surveillance? And what do they think about researchers tracking what they send down the drain at their home?</p>
<p>While not new, this form of public health surveillance has gained attention since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tracking the rise and fall of the level of coronavirus in wastewater provides officials with a snapshot of how much SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in a community. Together with data on case counts, health officials can use this information to guide their local actions – for example, choosing to increase testing or vaccination campaigns. Where available, immunocompromised individuals may also find it useful to access data for their local area <a href="https://arcg.is/1aummW">via online dashboards</a> as they try to manage their overall exposure risk.</p>
<p>In our recent study, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FZnnXt0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AXvaPbMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">colleagues</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9XQ1LJoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">and</a> I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275075">explored public perceptions</a> of using sewer samples for monitoring community health in the United States. Using an online survey of more than 3,000 adults in the U.S., we were able to gauge respondents’ general boundaries in this expanding field of community monitoring. We didn’t find much consensus, suggesting the need for more public outreach and education.</p>
<h2>What happens after you flush</h2>
<p>Households connected to sewer lines pay utilities to remove their waste. In the absence of a sewer problem, most people are able to flush and forget.</p>
<p>Sewage typically travels through publicly owned infrastructure to a treatment plant operated by a utility. Researchers and officials currently sample wastewater not just for the coronavirus but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o2211">for polio</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20076-z">and flu monitoring</a>. Samples are usually collected with permission of the utility, but no one asks the households being sampled if they are willing to participate. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/npdes/municipal-wastewater">Treatment plants conduct</a> other kinds of Environmental Protection Agency-mandated testing, such as looking for pollutants in wastewater.</p>
<p><iframe id="A0Wjo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A0Wjo/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In our survey, we found that a large portion of the public was unaware that sewage surveillance takes place for public health purposes in many areas. Respondents were more aware of other forms of public health monitoring, such as restaurant inspections and water quality testing.</p>
<p>That about half of respondents didn’t even know sewage monitoring is happening underscores the fact that no one asks individual residents for permission to test an area’s wastewater.</p>
<p><iframe id="2I9x6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2I9x6/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We found more support for monitoring external threats in wastewater, such as diseases, environmental toxins and terrorist threats like anthrax. Fewer people expressed support for tracking lifestyle behaviors, such as smoking or use of birth control, diet, and indicators of mental health, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155961">including stress hormones</a>, which are emerging areas of monitoring not yet tracked in many local areas.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that the public may not want unchecked monitoring of their toilet flushes.</p>
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<p>When we asked people to consider the various scales at which wastewater surveillance can happen, we found a general theme of “the bigger, the better.” Sampling from a larger area is a way to protect privacy, since one person’s information is mixed in with many others’.</p>
<p>More respondents said they were OK with monitoring an entire city compared with monitoring at the level of individual residences. Notably, more respondents who self-reported living in urban areas endorsed monitoring the entire city than those who self-reported living in suburban areas.</p>
<h2>Looking at flushes is not going away</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I did not find significant nationwide fear about sewage surveillance among our survey respondents. But those surveyed certainly had opinions that officials may want to consider more deeply when it comes to wastewater tracking. </p>
<p>While wastewater surveillance in urban or suburban areas provides good coverage for an overall picture of COVID-19 in the community, coverage is still not fully inclusive of the entire public. It would not capture data from the approximately 15% of the United States population whose homes <a href="https://www.unwater.org/publications/who/unicef-joint-monitoring-program-water-supply-sanitation-and-hygiene-jmp-progress-0">do not have a sewer connection</a>. That group includes people who have septic tanks in more rural areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in protective gear pouring wastewater sample into a clear jar" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sampling wastewater can be done at a range of scale from a single building to a whole neighborhood or city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Louisville</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How protected is individual privacy? Confirming that SARS-CoV-2 is present in a city is different than confirming it’s present in a neighborhood, and that’s different from confirming it’s present in a dormitory or prison building. Looking at a wider area ensures the sample stays anonymous. At the moment, there are no health privacy protection laws or regulations about sewage surveillance in the U.S. Officials rely on goodwill from utilities to gain access to wastewater and the health information it holds, and often partner with commercial laboratories, <a href="https://biobot.io">such as Biobot</a>.</p>
<p>Wastewater data is immensely valuable. However this public health surveillance tool is used in the future, our survey suggests that there’s room for more education and conversation with the public. After all, they’re the one’s being monitored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rochelle H. Holm receives funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, as well as grants from the James Graham Brown Foundation and the Owsley Brown II Family Foundation. </span></em></p>Public health officials monitor sewage in local communities to track COVID, polio, flu and more. But no one asks the people being monitored for their permission – raising some questions and concerns.Rochelle H. Holm, Associate Professor of Medicine, University of LouisvilleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1908152022-09-26T12:39:17Z2022-09-26T12:39:17ZA seismic change has taken place at the Supreme Court – but it’s not clear if the shift is about principle or party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486320/original/file-20220923-13751-hqtm9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Supreme Court Building is shown in September 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/the-exterior-of-the-supreme-court-of-the-united-states-building-in-picture-id1243398495">Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the summer of 2022, the U.S. witnessed a dramatic change in how the majority of Supreme Court justices understand the Constitution. </p>
<p>At the end of a single term, the court <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-revolutionary-ruling-and-not-just-for-abortion-a-supreme-court-scholar-explains-the-impact-of-dobbs-185823">rejected the long-standing constitutional right to abortion</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-sweeps-aside-new-yorks-limits-on-carrying-a-gun-raising-second-amendment-rights-to-new-heights-183486">expanded gun rights</a> and ruled that <a href="https://theconversation.com/religious-liberty-has-a-long-and-messy-history-and-there-is-a-reason-americans-feel-strongly-about-it-186613">religion can have</a> a bigger role in public institutions. </p>
<p>These outcomes reflect a seismic shift in U.S. law and policy, but scholars of the court dispute what kind of change it was, exactly – a principled or partisan one. As a <a href="https://www.springer.com/series/16259">close observer of constitutional politics</a>, I believe this is an important debate with deep consequences for the perceived legitimacy of the court. </p>
<p>Some Supreme Court scholars see the court’s evolution as the rise of “<a href="https://time.com/6192277/supreme-court-originalism/">a profound and principled constitutional theory</a>,” while others see it as “<a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/originalism-run-amok-supreme-court">conservative policy choices in pretentious garb</a>.” </p>
<p>The public’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/confidence-in-the-supreme-court-is-declining-but-there-is-no-easy-way-to-oversee-justices-and-their-politics-187233">confidence</a> in the court, meanwhile, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/394103/confidence-supreme-court-sinks-historic-low.aspx">has fallen</a> after the <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization</a> abortion ruling to the lowest level since records began in the 1970s. </p>
<p>Public perceptions of the <a href="https://reason.com/volokh/2022/09/20/the-way-to-stop-worrying-about-judicial-legitimacy-is-to-stop-worrying-about-judicial-legitimacy/">the court and its legitimacy</a> may depend on whether citizens see the recent rulings as the victory of one side in a long-standing contest of ideas, or instead simply the triumph of <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/democrats-are-driving-a-nosedive-in-supreme-court-ratings/">partisan politics</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large crowd of people holding signs related to abortion are seen outside the Supreme Court on a cloudy day" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486307/original/file-20220923-2967-1evnnh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People protest in response to the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling outside the Supreme Court Building on June 24, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/people-protest-in-response-to-the-dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-in-picture-id1404906099">Brandon Bell/Getty Image</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Origins of the current court</h2>
<p>Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, arguably the most liberal of the current justices, characterized the court’s controversial rulings in 2021 as the result of “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21-147_g31h.pdf#page=38">a restless and newly constituted court</a>.” </p>
<p>Observers of the new court mostly agree on how it changed, but disagree on what the justices are restless about. </p>
<p>The change has been building over several years, driven by the long-standing <a href="https://nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/originalism-and-the-rule-of-the-dead">beliefs of</a> the older conservative justices – like Clarence Thomas and Samuel J. Alito – plus the addition of three new conservative justices – Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett – all three nominated by former president Donald Trump <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-legacy-supreme-court-422058">within an unusually brief</a> period of time. </p>
<p>Presidents <a href="https://www.georgewbushlibrary.gov/research/topic-guides/nominations-and-appointments-federal-office">George W. Bush</a> and <a href="https://www.obamalibrary.gov/subject-matter/supreme-court">Barack Obama</a>, for example, each had two nominations over their eight-year presidencies, while Trump helped place three new members on the court within a single four-year term.</p>
<p>These back-to-back appointments created a new supermajority of six conservatives on the court. This altered not only the rulings of the court, but also the selection of cases the court would hear. </p>
<p>The court chooses the few cases it will hear from the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Certiorari">thousands of applications for review</a>. If there were only five conservative-leaning justices, they could not guarantee they would hold the majority necessary for a final vote. </p>
<p>Often, Chief Justice John Roberts, generally considered an institutionalist determined to safeguard the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/roberts-is-the-new-swing-justice-that-doesnt-mean-hes-becoming-more-liberal/">public perception of the court</a>, or Gorsuch, widely seen as a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-gorsuch-supreme-court-conservative-20190712-story.html">libertarian-leaning</a> protector of the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-pornography/conservative-u-s-justice-gorsuch-again-sides-with-liberals-in-criminal-case-idUSKCN1TR2WD">rights of criminal defendants</a>, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/04/gorsuch-libertarian-textualist-immigrant-rights.html">immigrants</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/7/10/21318796/supreme-court-mcgirt-oklahoma-native-american-neil-gorsuch">Native Americans</a>, joined the liberals to flip a ruling. </p>
<p>A supermajority of six conservative justices gives them the confidence to take on major cases. Five makes a majority on the Supreme Court, but six can make a movement. </p>
<h2>It is a change in constitutional theory</h2>
<p>One view of the dramatic change at the court is that it reflects a long-running debate between two constitutional theories, or competing ways of reading the document. </p>
<p>The new court upholds <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/white-papers/on-originalism-in-constitutional-interpretation">originalism</a>, which has replaced its rival, <a href="https://lsolum.typepad.com/legaltheory/2018/11/legal-theory-lexicon-living-constitutionalism.html">living constitutionalism</a>.</p>
<p>The theory <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-originalism-did-it-underpin-the-supreme-courts-ruling-on-abortion-and-guns-debunking-the-myths-186440">of originalism</a> argues that the core purpose of a written Constitution is to protect against the government’s inevitable bad behavior. The best way to defend individual rights and ensure a stable government is to enforce the Constitution’s exact language and the meaning it expressed to the Americans who ratified it. </p>
<p>From an originalist view, allowing clever lawyers to see the Constitution as evolving without the endorsement of the people simply defeats its purpose. So this constitutional theory holds that the document can only be changed by amendment, but not by courts.</p>
<p>The theory of <a href="https://www.law.uchicago.edu/news/living-constitution">living constitutionalism</a>, meanwhile, is rooted in the idea that the Constitution should adapt to the American people’s evolving values, as well as the needs of contemporary society. This allows the Supreme Court to reinterpret the meaning of the language and expand the rights protected by the Constitution. </p>
<p>One side of the debate believes that upholding the true meaning of a written Constitution requires stable principles, while the second believes it requires evolving ones. </p>
<p>The two ways of reading the Constitution are not reconcilable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white woman with brown hair and a black dress stands next to a man in military uniform, who stands next to another white man with a black robe." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486206/original/file-20220923-34255-yn67m8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh attend the State of the Union address in March 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/supreme-court-justices-amy-coney-barrett-john-roberts-brett-m-and-g-picture-id1238865241">Saul Loeb - Pool/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It is partisan politics</h2>
<p>The second view of what happened during the court’s last term is that the shift was not about honest constitutional debate, but instead about partisan politics. In this view, the justices are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWRJiC5L744">politicians in robes</a> who pursue the policy goals of their party. This means that when the Republican appointees gained the majority in the court, GOP preferences followed.</p>
<p>Partisans know which school of thought is more likely to give them the outcomes they want.</p>
<p>Over the last few decades, partisanship has become a stronger force in shaping the nomination process. President Richard Nixon, for example, was a Republican who nominated Supreme Court <a href="https://www.oyez.org/justices/harry_a_blackmun">Justice Harry Blackmun</a>, who went on to write the liberal majority opinion <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1971/70-18">for Roe v. Wade</a> in 1973. </p>
<p>But today, justices nominated by Republican or Democratic presidents are chosen with much more care, with the aid of outside groups like the conservative <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/01/how-the-federalist-society-became-the-de-facto-selector-of-republican-supreme-court-justices.html">Federalist Society</a>. </p>
<p>The partisan view encourages people to see constitutional questions as they often view politics – simply ways of dodging principles while pushing ideological agendas. It characterizes the justices as pawns and constitutional debates as smokescreens. </p>
<p>That perception may actually be accurate about some of the justices, some of the time. But it is also surely not true about most of the justices, most of the time.</p>
<p>Perhaps the worst result of the partisan view is that interpreting the Constitution becomes about merely group identity, with Democrats and Republicans cynically stuck in permanent camps. This makes crucial public deliberations about the constitutional foundations of a free society nearly impossible. </p>
<p>The focus on constitutional theory argues that when debate is not about principle, it ought to be, while the partisan view argues that even when it seems to be, it is not.</p>
<p>Constitutional debate goes back and forth as the control of the court shifts. Over time, it will likely shift again, while the partisan view in the long term degrades the legitimacy of a correct, as well as incorrect, court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Marietta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Major Supreme Court decisions and reversals last term are leaving some people, including this scholar on constitutional politics, wondering – what’s going on with the court?Morgan Marietta, Professor of Political Science, UMass LowellLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1861692022-08-14T13:14:54Z2022-08-14T13:14:54ZWhy it’s important to tell people that monkeypox is predominately affecting gay and bisexual men<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478989/original/file-20220812-2527-jwfwgd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=444%2C22%2C2550%2C2097&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People inquire about receiving a monkeypox vaccine at an outdoor walk-in clinic in Montréal on July 23, 2022. The World Health Organization has declared the virus a global health emergency.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-it-s-important-to-tell-people-that-monkeypox-is-predominately-affecting-gay-and-bisexual-men" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Monkeypox virus, or MPXV, is an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141">emerging threat</a> to public health. The World Health Organization recently declared the current outbreak a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.12513">global public health emergency</a>.</p>
<p>For decades, several African countries have experienced ongoing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007791">outbreaks of MPXV</a>, driven primarily by contact with animals and transmission within households. However, before last year, most people in Europe and North America had never even heard of the disease. That was until the current outbreak among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men.</p>
<h2>Debates over the epidemiology of MPXV</h2>
<p>Over the past several months, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/reducing-stigma.html">a controversy</a> has raged about whether it’s OK to say that the current MPXV outbreak is primarily affecting gay and bisexual men, and that it is primarily being spread through close personal contact, such as sex. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/metaphors-matter-why-changing-the-name-monkeypox-may-help-curb-the-discriminatory-language-used-to-discuss-it-185343">Metaphors matter: Why changing the name 'monkeypox' may help curb the discriminatory language used to discuss it</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>As a social and behavioural epidemiologist working with marginalized populations, including gay and bisexual men, I believe it’s important that people know that sexual and gender minority men are the primary victims of this MPXV outbreak. I believe this knowledge will help us end the outbreak before it bridges into other communities. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Yellow ovals (monkeypox virus particles) spread over a blue cell background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478988/original/file-20220812-1300-s3i976.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=740&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monkeypox particles in an infected cell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(NIAID)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For reference, more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMe2210673">90 per cent of cases in non-endemic countries</a> have been transmitted through intimate sexual contact, and the vast majority of cases are among gay men. Very few cases are linked to community transmission. </p>
<p>While these statistics are undisputed, some have feared that identifying sexual behaviour as the primary cause of current MPXV transmission <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/health-wellness/2022/08/04/monkeypox-cases-spread-sti-std-stigma/10172342002/">would dampen the public health response</a>. Others have warned that connecting MPXV to an already stigmatized community will <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/26/1113713684/monkeypox-stigma-gay-community">worsen stigma towards gay sex</a>. </p>
<h2>Non-sexual transmission is possible, and a considerable threat</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html">It is true that MPXV can transmit through more</a> casual contact and through fomites (<a href="https://www.news-medical.net/health/What-are-Fomites.aspx">inanimate objects</a> on which some microbes can survive, such as bed linens, towels or tables). </p>
<p>However, months into the current outbreak, we have not seen these routes emerge as important pathways of transmission. This may be due to <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/monkeypox-transmission-has-changed-scientists-dont-know-why-airborne-1715276">changes in the fundamental transmission dynamic of MPXV</a> or due to enhanced cleaning procedures implemented in response to COVID-19 in places such as gyms and restrooms. </p>
<h2>Why it’s crucial to know MPXV affects gay and bisexual men</h2>
<p>Informing the public about MPXV is important because public opinion plays an important role in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.11623">shaping public health policies</a>, such as who gets access to vaccines and what interventions are used to stop disease transmission. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13539-5">recent study</a> conducted by my team aimed to demonstrate the importance of public health education by asking Canadians to participate in a discrete choice experiment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An arm with a tattoo of a flower and leaves being injected with a syringe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478993/original/file-20220812-3855-u3hkeu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man receives a monkeypox vaccine at an outdoor walk-in clinic in Montréal on July 23, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We asked participants to choose between two hypothetical public health programs across eight head-to-head comparisons. Descriptions for each hypothetical program identified the number of years of life gained by patients, the health condition it addressed and the population it was tailored for. </p>
<p>From our analyses of this data, we learned a lot about how the public wants public health dollars to be spent and how their knowledge and bias shapes these preferences. There were five major takeaways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.11.022">People preferred interventions that added more years to participants’ life expectancy</a>. In fact, for one year of marginal life gained, there was a 15 per cent increase in the odds that participants chose that program. </p></li>
<li><p>We found that people tended to favour interventions that focused on treatment rather than prevention. While this approach is emotionally intuitive, large bodies of evidence suggest that <a href="https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2009/09/cost-savings-and-cost-effectiveness-of-clinical-preventive-care.html">it is more cost-effective to prevent disease than to treat it</a>. As the old saying goes: An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. </p></li>
<li><p>People generally preferred interventions for common chronic diseases — such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer — and were <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-029747">less likely to favour interventions for behaviour-related conditions</a>, such as sexually transmitted infections. </p></li>
<li><p>People generally preferred programs focused on the general population as opposed to those tailored for key <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vhri.2018.05.004">marginalized populations</a>. In fact, people were least likely to prefer interventions tailored for sexual and gender minorities. </p></li>
<li><p>The bias against behavioural interventions and those tailored for key populations was overcome when the programs addressed a health condition that was widely understood to be linked to the population the program was tailored to. For example, people were more likely to support interventions for sexually transmitted infections when these interventions were tailored for people engaged in sex work or for gay and bisexual men.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>This study highlights why it is important to educate the public about health inequities. People are smarter, more pragmatic, and more compassionate than we give them credit for. If we take the time to share evidence with them about the challenges that stigmatized communities face, they will be more willing to support policies and efforts to address these challenges. </p>
<p>Ending MPXV quickly is critical, especially since the virus <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01907-y">has the potential to evolve</a> in ways that could make the disease more infectious. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-01007-6">Protecting gay and bisexual men first, protects everyone</a>.</p>
<p>We should, of course, always be aware of the potential harms and the corrosive effects of stigma. However, in public health, honesty really is the best policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kiffer George Card receives funding from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, the Canadian Research Coordinating Committee, Michael Smith Health Research BC, and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is affiliated with Simon Fraser University's Faculty of Health Sciences, The Institute for Social Connection, The Community-based Research Centre, the GenWell Project, The Island Sexual Health Society, and the Mental Health and Climate Change Alliance.</span></em></p>Engaging in open and honest dialogue with the public to increase understanding of health inequities has never been more important.Kiffer George Card, Assistant Professor in Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1871382022-07-25T12:07:32Z2022-07-25T12:07:32ZKansas vote for abortion rights highlights disconnect between majority opinion on abortion laws and restrictive state laws being passed after Supreme Court decision<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475536/original/file-20220721-24-gd9zft.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C6%2C4001%2C2969&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Savannah Medical Clinic, which provided abortions for four decades in Savannah, Ga., is closed now. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Abortion/6fd38123173347909c9c1881683d78f1/photo?Query=abortion%20clinic%20closed&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=25&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Russ Bynum</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kansans overwhelmingly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/02/us/elections/results-kansas-abortion-amendment.html">voted, 59% to 41%, to maintain the state’s constitutional right to an abortion</a> in a referendum held on Aug. 2, 2022. The referendum’s result, by which voters made their opinions directly known on abortion, highlights the disconnection between public opinion and restrictive state abortion laws passed by many conservative state legislatures after the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1102305878/supreme-court-abortion-roe-v-wade-decision-overturn">Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade</a>. </p>
<p>The referendum outcome closely mirrors the percentages of Kansas residents who, in a survey we conducted, said that they support abortion to protect the life of the mother – 62% – and in cases of rape – 61%. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest an explanation for the referendum results: While most Kansas voters do not support unrestricted abortion access – for instance, only 18% of Kansans support abortion after fetal viability and 26% do so after a heartbeat is detected – neither do they support complete bans on abortion. </p>
<p>Since the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/19-1392">Dobbs</a> decision that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion, multiple states have enacted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html">laws prohibiting or restricting women from obtaining an abortion</a>. </p>
<p>Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the court’s majority in Dobbs, anticipated that states would move to adopt new policies regarding abortion rights. States, he asserted, would better represent the views of their constituents on abortion than the federal courts have done. </p>
<p>“It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives,” Alito wrote.</p>
<p>But overturning Roe v. Wade has not moved state abortion policies more closely in line with the preferences of state residents. </p>
<p>Since April 2020, we have <a href="https://www.covidstates.org">regularly polled Americans</a> in all 50 states and the District of Columbia on attitudes and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other social and political issues. </p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.covidstates.org/reports/state-by-state-views-on-abortion-in-america">latest survey</a>, conducted between June 8 and July 6, 2022, we asked Americans whether or not they support abortion under nine distinct scenarios, ranging from saving the life of the woman to pregnancy caused by rape to avoiding financial hardship. We also asked Americans how important the abortion issue was to them and <a href="https://www.covidstates.org/reports/the-dobbs-decision-support-for-abortion-and-2022-voting">compared responses provided before and after the public announcement of the Dobbs decision</a>. </p>
<p>We found that instead of increasing democratic representation, the Dobbs ruling has actually widened the gap between public preferences and public policy, both nationwide and within many states.</p>
<p>Not only are state-level policies currently unaligned with state-level public opinion, but, since the Dobbs decision was announced, Americans also increasingly appear to prefer fewer restrictions on abortion, even as many states are moving to enact more restrictions.</p>
<h2>‘Already responsive’</h2>
<p>Across the U.S., more Americans support than oppose the right to an abortion in most scenarios – including cases in which the life or health of the mother is at stake, the fetus could be born with severe health problems, the pregnancy resulted from rape or the woman does not want to be pregnant. Support for abortion in all nine scenarios increased following the Dobbs ruling.</p>
<p><iframe id="5XwKu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5XwKu/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We also investigated whether the changes to state abortion policies after Dobbs did a better or worse job of reflecting views of residents within the affected states. </p>
<p>For instance, we examined support for abortion after the fetus can survive outside the womb – known as fetal viability – which was the court’s prior standard for when states could prohibit abortion. Fewer Americans support abortion after fetal viability than in any other scenario. Even in states currently lacking gestational limits on abortion, people are more than twice as likely to oppose as support abortion once the fetus can survive outside the womb – 46% vs. 21%. </p>
<p>This suggests that the court’s previous standard of permitting states to prohibit abortion after viability – established in Roe and <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/505/833/">Planned Parenthood v. Casey</a>, but struck down in Dobbs – was consistent with public preferences in every U.S. state. It thus seems improbable that abolishing that standard would make policy more responsive as Alito claimed; it already was responsive.</p>
<h2>Unresponsive policies in Dobbs’ wake</h2>
<p>We also find that several state-level restrictions on abortion clearly conflict with public opinion in those states. For instance, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html">seven states</a> – Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin – currently prohibit abortions without exception for pregnancies caused by rape. An additional four states – Arizona, Kentucky, Louisiana and Utah – have similar policies that the courts have temporarily blocked. </p>
<p>Yet a majority – 55% – of Americans in these 11 states support abortion when the pregnancy is caused by rape, compared with only 16% who oppose it. </p>
<p><iframe id="qNJD6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qNJD6/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even in states with the lowest support for abortion in pregnancies caused by rape, pluralities still support abortion by more than 2 to 1. For example, in Louisiana, the state with the nation’s lowest level of support for abortion in pregnancies caused by rape, 45% support abortion in those cases compared with 21% who oppose it. </p>
<h2>Growing support for fewer restrictions</h2>
<p>Before Dobbs, 13 U.S. states had so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-triggers-the-trigger-laws-that-could-ban-abortions-184361">trigger laws</a>” that would restrict or prohibit abortion access as soon as Roe was overturned. Yet rather than finding those laws brought the states’ abortion policies closer into alignment with public preference, in every instance – across all nine scenarios – we found that respondents in trigger law states became more, not less, supportive of abortion following the Dobbs ruling.</p>
<p><iframe id="0iLbX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0iLbX/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>For instance, in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html">Texas – which immediately banned nearly all abortions after Dobbs</a> – support for abortion to save the life of the woman increased by 17 percentage points following the Dobbs ruling, while support for abortion in cases of rape increased by 12 percentage points. </p>
<p><iframe id="B2phB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/B2phB/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Abortion politics upended</h2>
<p>Will the widening gap between policy and opinion on abortion have electoral consequences? </p>
<p>Our findings suggest it might. </p>
<p>Abortion opponents have long been more likely than supporters of abortion access to self-identify as single-issue voters; that is, to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/313316/one-four-americans-consider-abortion-key-voting-issue.aspx">decide their vote based on a candidate’s position on abortion</a>. </p>
<p>Since the Republican Party is <a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL%5B1%5D-ben_1468872234.pdf">strongly anti-abortion</a>, these single-issue abortion voters have <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/9904/public-opinion-about-abortion-indepth-review.aspx">mostly voted for Republicans</a>.</p>
<p>This may be changing. </p>
<p>In our survey, respondents who consider abortion an “extremely important” issue are 11 percentage points more likely than those who do not consider it an extremely important issue to prefer that Democrats retain control over the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms. In other words, in a break from past elections, single-issue abortion voters in 2022 may be more pro-choice than anti-abortion, and consequently favor Democratic candidates over Republican candidates.</p>
<p>It is unclear whether this is a momentary blip or an early indicator of an enduring change in the politics of abortion in America. </p>
<p>Regardless, our findings clearly call into question Justice Alito’s apparent assumption that returning abortion policy to the states would enhance democratic representation.</p>
<p><em>This story was updated on Aug. 3, 2022, to reflect the results of the Kansas referendum on abortion.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Justice Samuel Alito said that abortion policy crafted by elected representatives in the states would be more responsive to what constituents want than federal protection of the right. He was wrong.Matthew A Baum, Marvin Kalb Professor of Global Communications & Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolAlauna Safarpour, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolKristin Lunz Trujillo, Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842312022-06-15T12:27:03Z2022-06-15T12:27:03ZTrump-endorsed candidates would generally win even without his support – and that’s usually the case with all political endorsements<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468548/original/file-20220613-12-6awtrc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C26%2C3551%2C2355&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ohio GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance won his primary after Trump endorsed him. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022Politics/d059c994c426472d8dccde6793fe6db0/photo?Query=(persons.person_featured:(Donald%20AND%20Trump))%20AND%20%20(Trump%20endorsement)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=217&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Joe Maiorana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few months, many <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/04/1096589956/indiana-ohio-primaries-what-happened-takeaways-vance-trump">journalists and pundits</a> have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/28/trump-may-endorsements-status/">credited</a> the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-endorsement-success-rate-average-performance-vote-percentage-gop-primaries-2022-5">power</a> of Donald Trump’s endorsements with determining the winners of Republican primaries. </p>
<p>Trump has made <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump">238 candidate endorsements</a> in the 2022 election cycle so far, targeting state, congressional, gubernatorial and even <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/ryanjrusak/article256799582.html">local</a> races. </p>
<p>Based on the numbers alone, receiving a “Trump bump” seems like a surefire way to win an election. So far, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump#Regular_endorsements">92% of Trump’s favored candidates</a> have won their Republican primaries.</p>
<hr>
<iframe id="noa-web-audio-player" style="border: none" src="https://embed-player.newsoveraudio.com/v4?key=x84olp&id=https://theconversation.com/trump-endorsed-candidates-would-generally-win-even-without-his-support-and-thats-usually-the-case-with-all-political-endorsements-184231&bgColor=F5F5F5&color=D8352A&playColor=D8352A" width="100%" height="110px"></iframe>
<p><em>You can listen to more articles from The Conversation, narrated by Noa, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/audio-narrated-99682">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>But as a political scientist who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RG_vffMAAAAJ&hl=en">studies</a> voting and public opinion, I have my doubts about the true power of Trump’s endorsements. Instead, it is more likely that most of the candidates Trump has chosen to endorse were already on track to win their respective races. </p>
<p>Political science says that <a href="http://boudreau.ucdavis.edu/uploads/9/2/1/3/92138496/boudreau_oxford_handbook_2018.pdf">endorsements do occasionally matter</a> for determining election outcomes. But in most cases, their effects are far <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915595882">less potent</a> than commentators might expect.</p>
<p>This is because endorsements are not made in a vacuum. Much like the endorsements of interest groups and political parties, the so-called “Trump bump” is mostly a reflection of the attributes a candidate already had before the endorsement.</p>
<h2>Backing the winners</h2>
<p>Candidates’ electoral fortunes mostly stem from <a href="http://boudreau.ucdavis.edu/uploads/9/2/1/3/92138496/boudreau_oxford_handbook_2018.pdf">whether they’re incumbents, which political party they belong to, their ideology and their political savvy</a>. In turn, these attributes also determine <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915595882">who gets endorsed</a> by prominent groups and people. </p>
<p>For this reason, Trump’s endorsements are an excellent lesson in what scholars call “<a href="https://dictionary.apa.org/reverse-causality">reverse causality</a>.” This is what happens when people mistake a phenomenon’s effects for its cause, like thinking that people holding umbrellas have caused it to rain. In this case, reverse causality implies that Trump’s favorite candidates are not more likely to win because of his endorsement. </p>
<p>To be sure, candidate endorsements can act as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00399.x">valuable cues</a> for voters seeking to make informed decisions. Voters might think to themselves, “If this person, whom I trust and like, supports a candidate, then I should trust and like the candidate too.” This is especially true in elections in which little is known about the contenders.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with gray hair wearing a blazer at a campaign rally with signs held behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468553/original/file-20220613-22-hu4he2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trump endorsed former Sen. David Purdue, seen here, in the 2022 GOP primary for governor in Georgia. But the incumbent, Brian Kemp, won the nomination.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022/7db40e86264a47f1ad561fcc23993e9f/photo?Query=david%20perdue&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1201&currentItemNo=8">AP Photo/John Bazemore</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-018-9512-2">Such mental shortcuts</a> allow voters with limited knowledge of the candidates to vote according to their preferences. But in most cases, endorsements do little to persuade voters to shift their support from one candidate to another.</p>
<h2>The real sources of the ‘Trump bump’</h2>
<p>There are at least three other reasons that many of Trump’s favored candidates are finding success in 2022. </p>
<p>First, most of Trump’s endorsed candidates already hold office. This gives them <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/26/here-is-why-incumbents-in-congress-are-hard-to-beat.html">a distinct electoral advantage</a>. Only one of the congressional incumbents whom Trump endorsed lost in the primary. That candidate, Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina, chose to run in a <a href="https://www.themountaineer.com/news/the-real-story-behind-madison-cawthorn-switching-congressional-districts/article_ae55d270-46e3-11ec-94b9-236cb74043ff.html">new congressional district</a>, partially scuttling his incumbency advantage. </p>
<p>The stellar performance of Trump-backed incumbents is unsurprising, because incumbents already have a <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Incumbent_win_rates_by_state">nearly 100% chance</a> of winning primaries. The rare primary upset of an incumbent, like the one that elected New York Democratic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/nyregion/joseph-crowley-ocasio-cortez-democratic-primary.html">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> in 2018, normally sends shock waves through the political landscape. </p>
<p>Of course, Trump has also endorsed some challengers. Research shows that challengers <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673x15575753">raise more money</a> if they receive high-profile endorsements. Trump’s endorsement might have had a similar effect. </p>
<p>But longtime incumbents often have even <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.2307/2132148">deeper pockets</a>, making them difficult for challengers to defeat. The record reflects this reality: Of the nine Trump-endorsed challengers who have gone up against incumbents in primaries thus far, only three have managed to win.</p>
<p>Trump endorsements are also likely determined by a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/strategic-politicians-and-the-dynamics-of-us-house-elections-194686/75781C1A742A44F566C84B68EF157075">candidate’s quality</a>, which can be defined as the extent to which a candidate possesses the skills, reputation and resources – including money – to win elections. High-quality candidates normally contest only those elections they <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X07300908">know they can win</a>. Key endorsers like Trump stake their reputation on their support for candidates, meaning they are probably choosy about whom to endorse. This helps to explain why not all <a href="https://www.phillyvoice.com/senate-primary-candidates-pennsylvania-republican-sean-gale-2022/">vocally pro-Trump candidates</a> have received his official blessing.</p>
<p>Finally, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912915609437">a candidate’s ideology</a> plays an important role in determining winners, losers and support from endorsers. Trump is likely to endorse conservative candidates who align with his policy preferences – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/04/15/trump-endorsements-no-slam-dunk-so-far/">though not always</a>. Successful conservative candidates run in districts and states with many conservative voters. Trump’s endorsement will merely clarify these voters’ affinity for the candidate, while reaffirming others’ decision to vote for someone else.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people, a man and a woman, voting at booths with a lot of writing on them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468561/original/file-20220613-26-y7toeo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many elements influence how a person votes, and an endorsement is not usually decisive. Here, voters in Atlanta, Ga., on primary election day, May 24, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voters-participate-in-the-georgia-primary-on-election-day-news-photo/1240883289?adppopup=true">Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No endorsement, no problem for Republicans in ‘22</h2>
<p>Before assigning Trump the credit for boosting candidates in the upcoming 2022 general election, observers should recognize the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/108118001129172107?journalCode=hija">notorious difficulty</a> of proving causation in the realm of electoral politics. 2022 is primed to be a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/senate-control-midterms-2022/">banner year</a> for Republican candidates, whether they receive a nod from Trump or not.</p>
<p>Midterm election years are almost always <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/30023420">tough contests</a> for the party of the incumbent president. Voters associate candidates down the ballot with the president’s performance in office. After an early honeymoon phase, presidential approval often <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/40/1/1/1836685">slumps</a> as midterm elections near, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/determinants-of-the-outcomes-of-midterm-congressional-elections/2D3701D5F63001FAAD7BF14394DCCAB8">damaging</a> the chances of congressional candidates. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111453">volatile economy</a> is also bad news for the party of the incumbent. While presidents’ actions <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706108">might not have much effect</a> on national and global economic conditions, many voters <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/106591290305600303">blame the incumbent party</a> anyway.</p>
<p>These factors combine to heavily favor Republican candidates this year. Trump’s endorsements are far less important for voting behavior than the political and economic context of this year’s elections. </p>
<p>Hopefully, when it comes time to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.2307/2132104">discuss the reasons</a> that some candidates won and others lost, commentators will keep these lessons from voting behavior research in mind.</p>
<p><em>This story has been updated with the latest data on Trump endorsements as of August 30, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184231/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Anson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bottom line: Political endorsements are overrated.Ian Anson, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842212022-06-14T12:29:42Z2022-06-14T12:29:42ZRussians with diverse media diet more likely to oppose Ukraine war<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468246/original/file-20220610-16487-m54f49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=312%2C164%2C2906%2C1967&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Telegram users in Russia get access to more information than their compatriots who only watch television.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/telegram-logo-displayed-on-a-phone-screen-and-russian-flag-news-photo/1239204118">Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, public opinion polls have shown Russians overwhelmingly supporting the action, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has called a “special military operation.”</p>
<p>The polls show support ranging from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/">58%</a> to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/18/1093282038/russia-war-public-opinion-polling">80%</a> – but my statistical analysis of polling data reveals that support might depend on which media sources Russians get their information from.</p>
<p>The main news source for the majority of Russians is government-run television stations. In April, <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2022/05/20/internet-sotsialnye-seti-i-blokirovki/">67% of Russians</a> reported that their main news source was television, according to the <a href="https://www.levada.ru/en/">Levada Center</a>, an independent polling institute in Russia. </p>
<p>Russian TV viewers see news programs presenting a single point of view – the government’s – and claiming the Ukrainian military is killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying Ukrainian cities, while also <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/12/media/russian-tv-propaganda-reliable-sources/index.html">claiming the Russia military is suffering no losses</a> and innocent of any alleged war crimes. </p>
<p>Those who get their news from Telegram, an online, independent social media app, see different viewpoints – including the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60608463">London-based BBC News in Russian</a>, as well as fringe conspiracies like the <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/4awe83/qanon-russia-ukraine-war">Russian branch of QAnon</a>. My analysis reveals these Russians, who get a more diverse media diet on their smartphones, are more likely to oppose the war than those who get their news only from TV.</p>
<h2>An online information platform</h2>
<p>Telegram allows users to create public and private groups where everyone can post all types of content or a channel for a single user to post one-way communication in a feed. </p>
<p>Telegram <a href="https://telegram.org/privacy">claims</a> to be a secure platform where encryption and cloud storage make it difficult for authorities to identify the person who posted a message. This high level of anonymity makes Telegram useful for groups fighting oppression, like <a href="https://time.com/6158437/telegram-russia-ukraine-information-war/">pro-democracy opposition groups in Russia, Iran and South Korea</a>. It’s also useful for extremists and terrorists, like the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/26/tech/white-supremacists-telegram-racism-intl/index.html">white nationalism groups</a> and QAnon and other conspiracy-theory believers who have used it.</p>
<p>In March 2022, likely because of its relative privacy and security, Telegram became <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/telegram-surpasses-whatsapp-become-russias-top-messenger-megafon-2022-03-21/">the most popular messaging platform</a> in Russia. Its popularity grew even stronger after <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/07/1085025672/russia-social-media-ban">Russia banned Facebook, Twitter and Instagram</a>, and after <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/06/tiktok-suspends-content-in-russia-in-response-to-fake-news-law/">TikTok shut its Russian operations</a> in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. </p>
<p>According to an analysis by Time magazine, the number of subscribers to Russian-language news channels on Telegram <a href="https://time.com/6158437/telegram-russia-ukraine-information-war/">grew from 16 million to 24 million</a> in the month after the invasion. </p>
<h2>Public opinion polling</h2>
<p>After Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/europe/putin-approval-rating-russia.html">public support for the military operation and the president</a> grew. </p>
<p>It can be hard to accurately measure public opinion in authoritarian regimes, because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2016.1150284">people are reluctant to express views</a> the government might not approve of. In Russia after the invasion, that task became even more difficult, because of a new law punishing people who spread whatever the government determines to be “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-expand-laws-criminalize-fake-news/">fake news</a>” – including unfavorable facts or opinions about the military action in Ukraine.</p>
<p>But it’s clear that every poll, whether government-sponsored or independent, shows a high level of public support for the action in Ukraine.</p>
<p>Among them, I identified one poll that showed some more information that proved enlightening. A late March poll by the independent firm <a href="https://russianfield.com">Russian Field</a> asked its nationally representative sample of more than 1,000 respondents not whether they supported the military’s operation in Ukraine, but something just slightly different: “If you could travel in time, would you have changed the decision about the start of the special military operation on Ukraine?” </p>
<p>This avoided directly asking about their support or opposition to a government action, and delivered information other polls missed.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People use computers and smartphones amid piles of supplies in a mostly empty building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468245/original/file-20220610-41796-6dog2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some providing relief efforts in Ukraine also use Telegram, like these volunteers in Kyiv.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/volunteers-distribute-humanitarian-aid-with-the-help-of-a-news-photo/1239395083">Pierre Crom/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Information diet matters</h2>
<p>About 66% of the respondents to the Russian Field poll said they would not have changed the decision about invading Ukraine, even if given the power to do so. That fits with the overall trend of massive public support for Putin’s war.</p>
<p>But the poll also asked respondents to name their primary source of information, and that’s where I found new insights. Not surprisingly, most of the respondents got their information from television. The next most popular sources mentioned were the internet generally, and Telegram, in that order, but very close together in the ranking.</p>
<p>The group that used Telegram was more likely than TV viewers to say they would change the decision about invading.</p>
<p>The difference is not large; however, it is significant from a statistical point of view. And it stayed statistically significant even after accounting for differences in the respondents’ genders, income and ages.</p>
<p>This finding is consistent with the results of a similar analysis I did on different data from a survey in early March: Russian Telegram users are more likely to oppose the war than Russian TV viewers. Unfortunately, in more recent surveys independent research agencies have not asked about respondents’ media sources, though I’m keeping an eye open to see if any future surveys do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ekaterina Romanova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most Russians get their news from government-controlled television. But those who look to Telegram, an online platform, are more likely to have views that break from the official position.Ekaterina Romanova, Ph.D. Student in Mass Communications, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1829302022-05-31T13:04:13Z2022-05-31T13:04:13ZMost people support abortion staying legal, but that may not matter in making law<p>The Supreme Court is set to soon rule on the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health case, nearly one month after a leaked <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/read-justice-alito-initial-abortion-opinion-overturn-roe-v-wade-pdf-00029504">draft majority opinion</a> showed the <a href="https://theconversation.com/leaking-a-supreme-court-draft-opinion-on-abortion-or-other-hot-topics-is-unprecedented-4-things-to-know-about-how-the-high-court-works-182942">court might</a> uphold a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.</p>
<p>Ruling to uphold this ban could undo women’s constitutional right to abortion, guaranteed by Roe v. Wade in 1973, and throw the decision back to states.</p>
<p>Most Americans <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/most-oppose-overturning-roe-v-wade-widespread-confusion-over-a-post-roe-world/">do not support overturning</a> Roe v. Wade, and have held this opinion for some time. </p>
<p>About 61% of Americans think that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances, while 37% think it should be illegal in all or most circumstances, according to a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americas-abortion-quandary/">March 2022 Pew Research poll</a>. </p>
<p>But national public opinion <a href="https://open.oregonstate.education/open-judicial-politics/chapter/supreme-court-public-opinion/">does not often</a> influence the Supreme Court’s decisions. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=oTq7_YIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">a professor</a> of political science who studies gender and public opinion, I believe that while general national opinion polling on abortion is important, too much emphasis on it can be misleading. When it comes to how public opinion may shape the debate, it’s essential to pay attention to opinions in the various states, and among particular interest groups. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A big fence with the words 'police line, do not cross' is shown outside the Supreme Court" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465775/original/file-20220527-19-mm05sn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protective fencing encloses the U.S. Supreme Court building on May 24, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/protective-fencing-remains-up-around-the-us-supreme-court-building-in-picture-id1399020089?s=2048x2048">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public opinion on abortion</h2>
<p>Polling since 1995 <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/">has consistently shown</a> that most Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. </p>
<p>But beyond these general trends, people’s specific backgrounds and characteristics tend to guide their opinions on this controversial topic. </p>
<p>It may surprise some to know that research consistently shows that gender <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfu047">does not</a> broadly influence people’s opinions on abortion. Women are shown to be slightly more supportive of keeping abortion legal, but the gap between how women and men feel about this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1554477X.2015.985151">is small</a>. </p>
<p>But other characteristics matter a lot. Currently, the biggest dividing line on abortion beliefs is partisanship. </p>
<p>An overwhelming 80% of Democrats support legal abortion in all or most cases, while only 38% of Republicans do, according to a 2022 <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/08/29/u-s-public-continues-to-favor-legal-abortion-oppose-overturning-roe-v-wade/">Pew Research</a> poll. The opinion gap between Democrats and Republicans on this issue <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/08/29/u-s-public-continues-to-favor-legal-abortion-oppose-overturning-roe-v-wade/">has widened</a> over the past few decades. </p>
<p>In the 1970s and 1980s, Republicans and Democrats supported the right to get an abortion at fairly similar rates. Research finds that the partisan gap on abortion “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20961022">went from 1 point in the 1972 to 1986 time period to almost 29 points in the 2014 to 2017 period</a>.”</p>
<p>Religion also continues to play an important role in abortion support. White evangelical Christians are <a href="https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Crosstab-March-2022-Abortion-2.pdf">particularly in favor</a> of overturning Roe v. Wade, but most other people who identify as religious are ambivalent, or remain supportive of the precedent. </p>
<p>Young people and those with more years of education are <a href="https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Crosstab-March-2022-Abortion-1.pdf">more likely</a> to say that abortion should be legal, while <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/legal-in-most-cases-the-impact-of-the-abortion-debate-in-2019-america/">Latino people</a> are more likely to oppose abortion.</p>
<p>Most consequentially, abortion support varies dramatically across states, ranging from 34% in Louisiana to 72% in Vermont, according to the Public Religion Research Institute’s 2018 survey of the 50 <a href="https://www.prri.org/research/legal-in-most-cases-the-impact-of-the-abortion-debate-in-2019-america/">states</a>. </p>
<p>So, when West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/28/abortion-senate-vote/">blocked a</a> bill in February 2022 that would have protected the federal right to abortion, he was consistent with his constituents’ opinions. In West Virginia, only 40% support <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/upshot/polling-abortion-states.html">legal abortion</a> in all or most cases. </p>
<h2>The history of abortion attitudes</h2>
<p>Even after the Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade in 1973, abortion was not <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0898588X19000166">as partisan</a> of an issue as it is today. It was not until the <a href="https://documents.law.yale.edu/before-roe">late 1970s and early 1980s</a> that politicians tried to use abortion views as a way to gain votes. </p>
<p>But as religious conservative political movements <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1375/religious-right">grew in the</a> U.S., abortion became more politicized over the next few decades. </p>
<p>In the 1970s, both Democrats and Republicans in Congress were <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691048574/the-politics-of-womens-rights">internally divided</a> on abortion. The Republican National Committee, for example, was <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/03/how-feminists-became-democrats-216926/">co-chaired</a> by Mary Dent Crisp, who supported abortion rights. By the 1980s, conservative activists pushed Crisp <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo24660595.html">out of her position</a>. </p>
<p>George H.W. Bush also ran as a moderate on abortion in the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/party-position-change-american-politics-coalition-management">1980 Republican presidential primary</a>. But when Bush lost the primary bid and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/12/04/673398023/looking-back-on-president-george-h-w-bushs-legacy-on-abortion">became Ronald Reagan’s running mate</a> that year, his position shifted. Bush opposed abortion <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/12/05/how-george-hw-bush-enabled-rise-religious-right/">by the time</a> he ran for president in 1988. </p>
<p>This shift speaks to the rising importance of the Christian right in Republican electoral politics around this time.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden made a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-s-long-evolution-abortion-rights-still-holds-surprises-n1013846">similar change</a> in his support for abortion over time. Biden opposed using federal funds for abortion early in his congressional career, but has taken a more liberal position in recent years and now sees abortion as an <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/5/18653660/joe-biden-hyde-amendment-bernie-sanders-2020">essential element of health care</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo shows demonstrators with signs that say things like 'the right to abortion belongs to God, not doctors.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465777/original/file-20220527-13-5bhjpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=636&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-abortion activists march to protest abortion in New York City in 1975.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/prolife-activists-gather-to-protest-against-abortion-outside-an-hotel-picture-id1221974952?s=2048x2048">Peter Keegan/Authenticated News/Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Whose opinions matter?</h2>
<p>Even though the overall nationwide public support for abortion has remained relatively high since the 1990s, this masks how subsets of people, like those on the Christian right who feel strongly about abortion, can reshape politics. </p>
<p>State-level public opinion matters, too. Abortion attitudes vary greatly across states – and state-level policy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271700425X">has polarized</a> over time, creating bigger policy differences in conservative and liberal states. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0072.1999.tb01998.x">matters</a> because states have an outsize influence in abortion politics. Because so much of the federal debate revolves around Roe, the Senate has been an important gatekeeper for Supreme Court justices, who will determine whether they should overturn Roe.</p>
<p>This difference poses a fundamental challenge for people who want a single nationwide policy on abortion – whether they support the ability for someone to get an abortion in all or most cases, or do not. </p>
<p>Varied opinions on abortion also offer a reminder about what kind of public opinion matters most in democratic politics. It is not the version of public opinion that emerges from nationally representative surveys of the American people. Instead, the most influential kind of opinion is the organized political activity that can pressure government and shape electoral choices and legislative options.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tarah Williams receives funding from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) as a Public Fellow. </span></em></p>Americans have long said they generally support abortion rights, but understanding specific breakdowns of opinion across demographics, and the history of abortion beliefs, is also important.Tarah Williams, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Allegheny CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838962022-05-26T21:16:06Z2022-05-26T21:16:06ZWhy gun control laws don’t pass Congress, despite majority public support and repeated outrage over mass shootings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465569/original/file-20220526-21-lkanmr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C6%2C4421%2C2947&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The front page of the local newspaper in Uvalde, Texas, on May 26, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-front-page-of-the-local-newspaper-is-seen-in-the-media-news-photo/1240917109?adppopup=true">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>With the carnage in Uvalde, Texas, and Buffalo, New York in May 2022, calls have begun again <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/after-uvalde-congress-hears-calls-for-gun-control-legislation-compromise-remains-elusive">for Congress to enact gun control</a>. Since the 2012 massacre of 20 children and four staff members at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, legislation introduced in response to mass killings has consistently <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/republicans-gun-control.html">failed to pass the Senate</a>. We asked political scientists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0UmsWdAAAAAJ&hl=en">Monika McDermott</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Jks9RasAAAAJ&hl=en">David Jones</a> to help readers understand why further restrictions never pass, despite a <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3500861-majority-in-new-poll-favors-stricter-gun-control-measures/">majority of Americans supporting tighter gun control laws</a>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Mass killings are becoming more frequent. Yet there has been no significant gun legislation passed in response to these and other mass shootings. Why?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Monika McDermott:</strong> While there is consistently a majority in favor of restricting gun access a little bit more than the government currently does, usually that’s a slim majority – though that support tends to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx">spike in the short term</a> after events like the recent mass shootings. </p>
<p>We tend to find even <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/may/25/steve-kerr/polls-consistently-show-high-support-gun-backgroun/">gun owners are in support of restrictions</a> like background checks for all gun sales, including at gun shows. So that’s one that everyone gets behind. The other one that gun-owning households get behind is they don’t mind <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/us/red-flag-laws.html">law enforcement taking guns away</a> from people who have been legally judged to be unstable or dangerous. Those are two restrictions on which you can get virtual unanimous support from the American public. But agreement on specific elements isn’t everything.</p>
<p>This isn’t something that people are clamoring for, and there are so many other things in the mix that people are much more concerned about right now, like the economy. Also, people are insecure about the federal budget deficit, and health care is still a perennial problem in this country. So <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/05/25/terror-in-texas-reignites-gun-control-debate-00035024">those kinds of things</a> top gun control legislation in terms of priorities for the public.</p>
<p>So you can’t just think about majority support for legislation; you have to think about priorities. People in office care what the priorities are. If someone’s not going to vote them out because of an issue, then they’re not going to do it.</p>
<p>The other issue is that you have just this different view of the gun situation in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/10-fear-mass-shooting-gun-laws-poll/story?id=65414785">gun-owning households and non-gun-owning households</a>. Nearly half of the public lives in a household with a gun. And those people tend to be significantly less worried than those in non-gun households that a mass shooting could happen in their community. They’re also unlikely to say that stricter gun laws would reduce the danger of mass shootings. </p>
<p>The people who don’t own guns think the opposite. They think guns are dangerous. They think if we restricted access, then mass shootings would be reduced. So you’ve got this bifurcation in the American public. And that also contributes to why Congress can’t or hasn’t done anything about gun control.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L4OauUiHRsU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut speaks on the Senate floor, asking his colleagues, ‘Why are you here if not to solve a problem as existential as this?’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>How does public opinion relate to what Congress does or doesn’t do?</strong></p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> People would, ideally, like to think that members of Congress are responding to public opinion. I think that is their main consideration when they’re making decisions about how to prioritize issues and how to vote on issues. </p>
<p>But we also have to consider: What is the meaning of a member’s “constituency”? We can talk about their geographic constituency – everyone living in their district, if they’re a House member, or in their state, if they’re a senator. But we could also talk about their electoral constituency, and that is all of the people who contributed the votes that put them into office. </p>
<p>And so if a congressmember’s motive is reelection, they want to hold on to the votes of that electoral constituency. It may be more important to them than representing everyone in their district equally. </p>
<p>In 2020, the most recent congressional election, among citizens who voted for a Republican House member, <a href="https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/">only 24% of those voters</a> wanted to make it more difficult to buy a gun.</p>
<p>So if you’re looking at the opinions of your voters versus those of your entire geographic constituency, it’s your voters that matter most to you. And a party primary constituency may be even narrower and even less in favor of gun control. A member may have to run in a party primary first before they even get to the general election. Now what would be the most generous support for gun control right now in the U.S.? <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000180-fe72-d0c2-a9ae-ff7250f80000&nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000156-93f5-d63c-a7d6-93ff85830001&nlid=630318">A bit above 60% of Americans</a>. But not every member of Congress has that high a proportion of support for gun control in their district. Local lawmakers are not necessarily focused on national polling numbers. </p>
<p>You could probably get a majority now in the Senate of 50 Democrats plus, say, Susan Collins and some other Republican or two to support some form of gun control. But it wouldn’t pass the Senate. Why <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290105400107">isn’t a majority enough</a> to pass? <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">The Senate filibuster</a> – a tradition allowing a small group of Senators to hold up a final vote on a bill unless a three-fifths majority of Senators vote to stop them.</p>
<p><strong>Monika McDermott:</strong> This is a very hot political topic these days. But people have to remember, that’s the way our system was designed.</p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> Protecting rights against the overbearing will of the majority is built into our constitutional system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with gray hair, a gray jacket, white shirt and blue tie talking outside a building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465573/original/file-20220526-13-xz7zvp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">GOP Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan said he ‘had to have police protection for six months’ after voting in 1994 for an assault weapons ban.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2022CongressUpton/94c372a13da54f4bb92310ab4dde6c76/photo?Query=Fred%20Upton&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=208&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Do legislators also worry that sticking their neck out to vote for gun legislation might be for nothing if the Supreme Court is likely to strike down the law?</strong></p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> The last time gun control passed in Congress was the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/4296">1994 assault weapons ban</a>. Many of the legislators who voted for that bill ended up losing their seats in the election that year. Some Republicans who voted for it are on record saying that they were receiving <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/us/politics/congress-assault-weapons-ban.html">threats of violence</a>. So it’s not trivial, when considering legislation, to be weighing, “Yeah, we can pass this, but was it worth it to me if it gets overturned by the Supreme Court?” </p>
<p><strong>Going back to the 1994 assault weapons ban: How did that manage to pass and how did it avoid a filibuster?</strong> </p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> It got <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/us/politics/congress-assault-weapons-ban.html">rolled into a larger omnibus bill</a> that was an anti-crime bill. And that managed to garner the support of some Republicans. There are creative ways of rolling together things that one party likes with things that the other party likes. Is that still possible? I’m not sure. </p>
<p><strong>It sounds like what you are saying is that lawmakers are not necessarily driven by higher principle or a sense of humanitarianism, but rather cold, hard numbers and the idea of maintaining or getting power.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Monika McDermott:</strong> There are obvious trade-offs there. You can have high principles, but if your high principles serve only to make you a one-term officeholder, what good are you doing for the people who believe in those principles? At some point, you have to have a reality check that says if I can’t get reelected, then I can’t do anything to promote the things I really care about. You have to find a balance.</p>
<p><strong>Wouldn’t that matter more to someone in the House, with a two-year horizon, than to someone in the Senate, with a six-year term?</strong></p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> Absolutely. If you’re five years out from an election and people are mad at you now, some other issue will come up and you might be able to calm the tempers. But if you’re two years out, that reelection is definitely more of a pressing concern.</p>
<p><strong>Some people are blaming the National Rifle Association for these killings. What do you see as the organization’s role in blocking gun restrictions by Congress?</strong></p>
<p><strong>Monika McDermott:</strong> From the public’s side, one of the important things the NRA does is speak directly to voters. The NRA publishes for their members <a href="https://www.nrapvf.org/grades/">ratings of congressional officeholders</a> based on how much they do or do not support policies the NRA favors. These kinds of things can be used by voters as easy <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00314.x">information shortcuts</a> that help them navigate where a candidate stands on the issue when it’s time to vote. This gives them some credibility when they talk to lawmakers.</p>
<p><strong>David Jones:</strong> The NRA as a lobby is an explanation that’s out there. But I’d caution that it’s a little too simplistic to say interest groups control everything in our society. I think it’s an intermingling of the factors that we’ve been talking about, plus interest groups. </p>
<p>So why does the NRA have power? I would argue: Much of their power is going to the member of Congress and showing them a chart and saying, “Look at the voters in your district. Most of them own guns. Most of them don’t want you to do this.” It’s not that their donations or their threatening looks or phone calls are doing it, it’s the fact that they have the membership and they can do this research and show the legislator what electoral danger they’ll be in if they cast this vote, because of the opinions of that legislator’s core constituents. </p>
<p>Interest groups can help to pump up enthusiasm and make their issue the most important one among members of their group. They’re not necessarily changing overall public support for an issue, but they’re making their most persuasive case to a legislator, given the opinions of crucial voters that live in a district, and that can sometimes tip an already delicate balance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monika L. McDermott is a consultant for brilliant corners Research and Strategy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David R. Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The nature of elected office combines with the lasting priorities of public opinion to put gun control on the back burner, even in times when it does get massive public attention.Monika L. McDermott, Professor of Political Science, Fordham UniversityDavid R. Jones, Professor of Political Science, Baruch College, CUNYLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781792022-03-02T14:01:19Z2022-03-02T14:01:19ZPutin’s approval has stayed strong over the years – war in Ukraine could change that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449490/original/file-20220302-15-1czj3f1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=439%2C273%2C3810%2C2472&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/yerevan-armenia-1-october-2019-russian-1629617482">Asatur Yesayants / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since his ascension to power in 2000, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has maintained levels of approval among the Russian public that would be the envy of most world leaders. Prior to the recent invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s approval rating stood at 71%, according to an <a href="https://www.levada.ru/en/">independent pollster</a>. Contrary to widespread belief, research has found that this support is not a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334">fiction or an artifact</a> of massaged polling numbers. </p>
<p>As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, a look at the public perception of Putin over the years may help us to understand how Russians will react to this violent war – and where the fate of this leader’s popularity lies. </p>
<p>In my <a href="https://jordanrussiacenter.org/news/guns-or-butter-how-the-public-judges-their-leaders-in-an-authoritarian-regime/">ongoing research</a>, I investigate what drives public approval of authoritarian leaders, including Putin. I and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00500.x">other scholars</a> have <a href="https://doi.org/10.2753/PPC1075-8216610201">found that</a> economic performance is a constant underlying Russians’ support for Putin over the last 20 years. Following Russia’s economic collapse in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, Putin has relied on economic recovery and stability to underpin his popularity.</p>
<p>Today, practical factors like financial wellbeing and inflation rates generally dominate many Russians’ perceptions of their government. This is the case even during times of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421001052">patriotic fervour</a>, such as the massive surge in Putin’s approval observed after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.</p>
<p>As much of the western world now imposes crippling economic sanctions on Russia, these basic demands for a full refrigerator and stable income are unlikely to be washed away by any wave of pro-war sentiment.</p>
<p>It should be said that Putin is also popular because of who he is and what he represents – firm leadership. His <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0037677900019690">personal appeal</a> – a conspicuous masculinity and man-of-the-people demeanour – and his role in bringing Russia back onto the main stage of global affairs only bolster his attractiveness. </p>
<h2>Having a say</h2>
<p>However, neither bread-and-butter economic factors nor geopolitical resurgence tell the whole story behind the support for Putin and his regime. The Russian public also values having a voice in their political system.</p>
<p>In ongoing research, conducted with co-authors Ora John Reuter and Quintin Beazer, we show that Russians’ approval of Putin decreases when their ability to vote for their city’s mayor is taken away by the regime. It may sometimes fall well short of a cry for full liberal democracy, but evidence from public opinion data shows that Russians do want their political leaders to be accountable to them. </p>
<p>The feeling that no one is listening can lead to disappointment in the system and in Putin. This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2002.10641515">demand for</a> democratic input into the operation of Russia’s vast and complex governing system is a powerful factor shaping Russians’ perceptions of Putin and the ruling regime.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putins-public-approval-is-soaring-during-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-but-its-unlikely-to-last-177302">Putin’s public approval is soaring during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, but it's unlikely to last</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In recent years, Russia has descended into an ever more repressive mode of authoritarian governance. Opposition, independent media and open dissent have been kneecapped. This trend is likely to only further antagonise the many members of the Russian public who want their voices to be heard. Now, burgeoning economic and diplomatic war with the west will only deepen the regime’s isolationist, anti-democratic tendencies and lead to even greater public disconnection from the authorities.</p>
<p>Some in the country have begun to grasp the full, destructive nature of their country’s war on Ukraine. Thousands have been arrested for participation in anti-war protests across the country. This could be bad news for Putin, whose support within Russia relies on political apathy. </p>
<p>While examining hundreds of thousands of Russian public opinion survey responses from 2003-19, I have found that merely being exposed to public protest depresses approval of Putin and his regime. Members of the general public learn about regime misdeeds from these protests, and discover that there are more dissenters in their society than they may have previously assumed. In other ongoing research, my co-authors and I have found that when Russians find out that Putin’s approval levels are not as sky-high as they thought, their own feelings towards him sour substantially. </p>
<h2>The power of the people</h2>
<p>Taken together, this research shows that Putin’s popularity to a large extent rests on real – not manufactured or imaginary – foundations. These foundations will be severely shaken by his cold-blooded war-making. If anti-war sentiment in Russia continues to grow, and the masses muster the profound bravery necessary to express dissent in the face of brutal repression, we may see portions of Putin’s popularity melt away.</p>
<p>Research on Russian public opinion suggests that the catastrophic damage Russia’s economy will suffer as a result of the attack on Ukraine is likely to hurt Putin dearly. Rising protest sentiment and a further withering of Russians’ feelings that they have a voice in the decisions made in their country may lead to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2950679">cascade of disapproval</a>.</p>
<p>Looking at public opinion during “settled times” in authoritarian regimes like Russia can only tell us so much about how attitudes may shift during a a crisis. Putin has a broad base of support and a propaganda machine that he can use to limit the damage to his reputation. Nevertheless, mass uprisings, discontent and even revolution can take everyone <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2010422">by surprise</a> in authoritarian regimes. We should not count the Russian people out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178179/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Noah Buckley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Vladimir Putin’s popularity could come crumbling down if anti-war sentiment in Russia continues to grow.Noah Buckley, Assistant professor in political science, Trinity College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1755032022-01-24T19:11:42Z2022-01-24T19:11:42Z60% of Australians want to keep Australia Day on January 26, but those under 35 disagree<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442079/original/file-20220123-21-1ursq5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of when or whether to celebrate Australia Day seems to have become stuck in a loop of <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/should-we-change-the-date-of-australia-day-have-your-say/news-story/865d5bfd16663cfcf7c136c5097058db">fierce debate</a> without resolution. </p>
<p>There are those who want to mark January 26 as the start of modern Australia, while others view it as the start of systematic dispossession of Indigenous Australians. </p>
<p>What does the broader public think? A new national survey shows at the moment, the majority of Australians want the day left as it is. But it also suggests a groundswell for change is in the works. </p>
<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>During November 2021, we polled a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians as part of the Deakin Contemporary History Survey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fireworks go off over the Opera House, illuminated with the Aboriginal Flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The debate about the date has become a part of Australia Day each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In contrast to previous surveys, which have focused on <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8621-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-25-2021-202101250620">what to call</a> Australia Day, we asked a more general question – is January 26 the right date for something called Australia Day?</p>
<p>We also asked other questions about respondents’ knowledge of and interest in Australian history. Our collective understanding of history can explain why some stories seem more important than others. For example, consider how frequently, and in how many different forms, we learn of Australian military history due to ANZAC Day. </p>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>Overall, 60% of our respondents want to continue celebrating “Australia Day” on January 26.</p>
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<p>But the generational differences are significant. More than half (53%) of millennials (those born between 1986 and 2002) think we should not celebrate Australia Day on January 26.</p>
<p>By contrast, 74% of those over 75 said “disagree” or “strongly disagree” to any change with 70% of baby boomers (born 1946–65) also against change. The generation X cohort (born 1966–1985) was also decisively against change (64%), revealing a gulf between millennials and the rest of those surveyed.</p>
<p>One possible explanation for this is older people being <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910">more resistant</a> to change. Their familiarity with Australia Day as an established end-of-summer day for social gathering is possibly stronger than their interpretation of the day’s historical significance or a political stance on the debate. </p>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>These results also mirror other polls (with smaller sample sizes of about 1,200), including one by <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8621-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-25-2021-202101250620">Roy Morgan</a> in January 2021 and another by <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/01/22/australia-day-divides-nation/">CoreData</a> released over the weekend. </p>
<p>Younger Australians are more readily accepting of marriage equality, gender diversity and other kinds of progressive social change. </p>
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<p>Recognising and responding to past injustices or complicated histories is familiar terrain for them. Rap group A.B. Original’s call-out of Australia Day, “January 26th,” came 16th place in Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2016.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Hottest 100 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/news/musicnews/triple-j-hottest-100-is-moving-to-a-new-date-and-heres-why/9197254">was moved</a> from the traditional January 26, after listeners expressed discomfort with holding the celebration on this date.</p>
<h2>Other differences</h2>
<p>Beyond generational differences, we also found gender and geography matter when it comes to attitudes about Australia Day. </p>
<p>Women were significantly more likely than men to want to change the date of Australia Day (43% compared to 33% men).</p>
<p>This is in keeping with <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-women-are-more-left-wing-than-men-study-reveals-95624">studies</a> showing women are <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-morrison-governments-response-to-sexual-assault-claims-cost-it-the-next-election-156939">more progressive</a> than men.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, about 66% of those living outside capitals cities were opposed to changing Australia Day. This reduces to 60% opposed to change in capitals. This is driven by boomers in regional areas, who are significantly more opposed than boomers in cities. </p>
<h2>More history, please</h2>
<p>Importantly for the Australia Day question, we also asked about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history. More than 80% of those polled agreed more of this history should be taught in schools. Here there is less of a generation gap: almost 90% of millennials want more of this education, for boomers, it is nearly 80%.</p>
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<p>Women and non-binary interviewees were still more likely to agree than men, by eight percentage points, and those in cities were six points ahead of those in regions. </p>
<p>But Australians are relatively united in their enthusiasm for greater teaching of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history.</p>
<h2>Change is coming</h2>
<p>We suggest our findings indicate a slow burn to change the date, based on strong foundations. While there remain differences among Australians, the combination of younger generational desire for change to Australia Day and strong enthusiasm among the broader population for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history may suggest that change is not so far off.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-day-survives-despite-revealing-a-nations-rifts-and-wounds-89768">Why Australia Day survives, despite revealing a nation's rifts and wounds</a>
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<p>This slow pace for change probably suits the major political parties (but not so much the Greens).</p>
<p>A growing appetite for change may also indicate a discomfort with celebrating “Australia Day” at all. Luke Pearson, Gamilaroi man and founder of media organisation IndigenousX opposes simply changing the date. As he <a href="https://indigenousx.com.au/why-i-no-longer-support-changethedate/">explained</a> in 2019, there is still too little recognition of the harmful impact of colonisation and too little justice for Indigenous peoples for there to be any day to celebrate. </p>
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<p>So, change the country first and then we can talk about a date.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Singleton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Gandel Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joanna Cruickshank receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
</span></em></p>A new national survey shows the majority of Australians want the day left as it is. But it also suggests a groundswell for change is in the works.David Lowe, Chair in Contemporary History, Deakin UniversityAndrew Singleton, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Research, Deakin UniversityJoanna Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in History, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.