tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/stage-4-90882/articlesStage 4 – The Conversation2020-09-10T20:08:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1458432020-09-10T20:08:28Z2020-09-10T20:08:28ZVital Signs: batch testing and contact tracing are the two keys to stop the lockdown yo-yo<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357366/original/file-20200910-20-6w2whm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=330%2C9%2C5686%2C2602&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Back in March and April I (<a href="https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-265-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686">and many other economists</a>) argued for lockdowns to get COVID-19 infections under control and to give health systems time to put in place testing and tracing regimes to contain the virus in the longer term.</p>
<p>This was done pretty effectively everywhere in Australia except for Victoria. But if things go to plan, all states will be back on the same page by the end of October. </p>
<p>Or will they?</p>
<p>Concerns about Victoria’s contact-tracing regime remain, and although there is a lot of testing, how it is being done might not be as effective as possible.</p>
<p>More still needs to be done to avoid the “yo-yoing” Victorian premier Dan Andrews has warned about – in which relaxation of distancing rules leads to yet another outbreak big enough to require reimposing restrictions.</p>
<p>There is room for not just incremental improvement but dramatic improvement of testing and tracing.</p>
<h2>Keeping the reproduction rate below 1</h2>
<p>The key to avoiding the need for lockdown (unless and until a vaccine is widely deployed) is to keep what epidemiologist call the “effective” reproduction rate (R) below 1. </p>
<p>That is, on average each person infected with the virus must give it to less than one other person (R<1). </p>
<p>If R>1 infections will grow exponentially, overwhelming human contact-tracing systems and eventually the hospital system.</p>
<p>To keep the reproduction rate below 1 requires testing and contact tracing to be incredibly fast and effective.</p>
<h2>Effective contact tracing</h2>
<p>Victoria’s contact-tracing system is generally regarded as having <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-signals-a-long-battle-as-the-experts-descend-into-the-weeds-of-victorias-modelling-145734">performed poorly</a> compared with systems such as in New South Wales. </p>
<p>The clunky system includes notifications of new infections <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-too-swamped-by-first-wave-to-consider-it-fix-for-contact-tracers-20200908-p55tnj.html">still being sent by fax</a>.</p>
<p>Only now is the state moving to adopt a more automated approach, using a data management system developed by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/08/salesforce-to-digitise-victorias-covid-contact-tracing-after-federal-criticism">IT giant Salesforce</a>. The Victorian government rejected the system earlier in the year, on the grounds the state was too swamped by the first wave to implement and bed down a new system.</p>
<p>My University of NSW colleague, epidemiologist Raina MacIntyre, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/critics-of-victoria-s-contact-tracing-system-misunderstand-some-key-facts-20200908-p55tju.html">has observed</a> that Victoria’s health system was less prepared than NSW because of 20 years of governments “stripping the health system bare”, and that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>No health workforce in the world, no matter how organised, well-resourced and efficient, can do manual contact tracing successfully when an epidemic becomes too large.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We could go down the more aggressive digital contact-tracing path akin to South Korea. But as the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f00483e1-d5f9-4ef4-8dac-01b89cf50ec9">Financial Times has noted</a>, the Korean systems:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>include an extensive trawl of data from other sources, such as security cameras and credit card transactions, as well as smartphone apps that use wireless signals to detect who might have encountered an infected individual.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Given the relatively low voluntary uptake of the Australian government’s COVIDSafe smartphone tracing app, getting enough people to use it to make it effective will also require strong incentives – or compulsion. </p>
<p>Now, I’m strongly for such incentives (as well as smarter testing). But given the amount of bedwetting about the existing COVIDSafe app from the libertarian right and some elements of the soft left (who are paranoid about every smart light bulb spying on us), this is unlikely to happen.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-modelling-tells-us-the-coronavirus-app-will-need-a-big-take-up-economics-tells-us-how-to-get-it-136944">Vital Signs: Modelling tells us the coronavirus app will need a big take-up, economics tells us how to get it</a>
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</p>
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<h2>Batch testing</h2>
<p>The other crucial tool to keep R below 1 is efficient and large-scale testing.</p>
<p>Australia did well early in the pandemic ramping up testing capacity. Test results have been typically returned within <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/how-long-should-it-take-to-get-a-coronavirus-covid19-test-result/12545150">a few days</a>, though there have also been reports of results taking <a href="https://theconversation.com/got-a-covid-19-test-in-victoria-and-still-havent-got-your-results-heres-what-may-be-happening-and-what-to-do-142821">more than five days</a>.</p>
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<p>What we have not done is embrace the benefits of targeted batch testing. </p>
<p>Batch testing is a way to cost-effectively test large numbers of people <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-65-million-142255">by pooling together</a> samples – say by postcode. </p>
<p>If the pooled sample comes back negative, then everyone who contributed to the batch is cleared. If it is positive, more targeted testing is done, using smaller batches (by suburb, then residential block, then by household). </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50-000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-6-5-million-142255">Vital Signs: We're testing 50,000 Australians a day for COVID-19. Should it be 6.5 million?</a>
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<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-were-testing-50-000-australians-a-day-for-covid-19-should-it-be-6-5-million-142255">I’ve noted before</a>, the optimal batch size depends on the base rate of the virus in the community. But this general idea has been around since World War II and is well understood. It is a way to stretch resources to test more of the population more often.</p>
<p>For Australia at this point of the pandemic, this kind of testing would enable rapid detection and isolation of any new infections, allowing social and economic activity to get back to a new normal. </p>
<h2>The strategy going forward</h2>
<p>Once the Victorian outbreak is under control, we need to reopen Australia’s internal borders. Then we can start thinking about easing external border restrictions with places such as New Zealand.</p>
<p>All of this will require keeping the reproduction rate below 1, which means catching any new infections fast. Really fast.</p>
<p>Yo-yoing lockdowns are costly and to be avoided if at all possible.</p>
<p>Automated contact tracing could help a lot, as could smart and aggressive batch testing. We should be doing both until a vaccine is deployed.</p>
<p>Some commentators talk about “living with this virus” which is basically code for letting it rip. Instead, what we need to do is engage in “relentless suppression” to keep the reproduction rate low and our economy open.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Yo-yoing lockdowns are costly and to be avoided if at all possible. Here is what we can do to dramatically improve testing and tracing.Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456812020-09-08T00:07:08Z2020-09-08T00:07:08ZThe modelling behind Melbourne’s extended city-wide lockdown is problematic<p>I totally support the goal of eliminating the coronavirus from Victoria and at the same time hopefully eliminating it from all of Australia.</p>
<p>I’ve written <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/economics-in-the-age-of-covid19">a book</a> making the case this is the best way to get Australia back to normal given the uncertainty of the timeline for a vaccine and the difficulty of continually managing a pandemic. </p>
<p>But an examination of the modelling the Victorian government has used to justify an extension of Melbourne’s Stage 4 lockdown for a further two weeks suggests its deficiencies might have driven the results. </p>
<p>A different, more traditional, model would have suggested a more granulated location-based (e.g., local authority or post-code group) easing of restrictions achieving the same result with fewer economic and social costs.</p>
<p>There can be no doubt the Stage 4 lockdown, introduced at 6pm on Sunday August 2, has achieved spectacular results.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356675/original/file-20200907-14-1l9n1ss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data">Victoria Department of Health and Human Services</a></span>
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</figure>
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<p>Usually in an upswing, measures take two or more weeks to have an effect. But in Victoria the decline was dramatic. </p>
<p>That doesn’t mean costs don’t matter. The delays inherent in the <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">extension and reopening plan</a> are considerable. It works like this:</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-coronavirus-road-to-recovery">Step 1</a></strong> announced on Sunday extends the Stage 4 restrictions for an extra two weeks but with some small extra freedoms. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>moving the start of the nightly curfew from 8pm to 9pm</p></li>
<li><p>allowing two hours of exercise, up from one</p></li>
<li><p>allowing outdoor public gatherings of two people or one household</p></li>
<li><p>creating “social bubbles” for single people who live alone and single parents with children under the age of 18</p></li>
<li><p>reopening playgrounds.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Steps 2, 3 and 4 are all subject to health advice, and depend entirely on daily new case numbers going down.</p>
<p>If new cases meet the required thresholds, <strong><a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/second-step-coronavirus-road-to-recovery">Step 2</a></strong> may begin on September 28 allowing:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>public gatherings of up to five people from a maximum of two households (for a maximum of 2 hours and within 5km of home if you’re in metropolitan Melbourne)</p></li>
<li><p>staged return of some students to school, and child care reopens</p></li>
<li><p>more workplaces can reopen</p></li>
<li><p>outdoor pools can reopen and personal training sessions with up to two clients allowed</p></li>
<li><p>outdoor religious gatherings with five people and a leader allowed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/third-step-coronavirus-road-to-recovery">Step 3</a></strong> could look like this from October 26:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>curfew abolished, no restrictions on reasons or distance to leave home</p></li>
<li><p>up to 10 people can gather outdoors, and you can create a “household bubble” with one nominated household allowing up to five visitors from that household at a time</p></li>
<li><p>more progression on school years 3-10 returning</p></li>
<li><p>hairdressing, retail and hospitality can reopen conditionally</p></li>
<li><p>a staged return to outdoor, non-contact sport for adults (outdoor contact sport for under-18s is allowed).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>And from November 23, subject to all the necessary requirements, <strong><a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/last-step-coronavirus-road-to-recovery">Step 4</a></strong> includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>allowing up to 50 people to gather in public and up to 20 visitors at homes</p></li>
<li><p>hospitality to reopen with limits, retail and real estate to reopen</p></li>
<li><p>up to 50 people at weddings and funerals (20 in a private residence)</p></li>
<li><p>further return to community sport.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The trigger for Step 2 is fewer than 50 new daily cases on average over two weeks, while the trigger for Step 3 is only five new daily cases on average over two weeks and zero mystery cases over the entire two weeks. For Step 4, the trigger is zero new cases state-wide for 14 days.</p>
<p>There are some good, progressive things about this plan. Schools are opening relatively soon, and before pubs. Playgrounds are opening quickly and allowances are being made for social bubbles. And big gatherings are last. </p>
<p>The issue is: why is the pace of reopening so slow? </p>
<p>One reason could be that the government is trying to avoid disappointment of things being extended. But playing those games seems second order to providing clarity. It seems to me the plan is slow because it relies on the outcomes from some modelling. </p>
<p>So let’s look at that modelling.</p>
<h2>The Victorian model</h2>
<p>The model used by the Victorian government has been published in the <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/probability-6-week-lockdown-victoria-commencing-9-july-2020-achieving-elimination">Medical Journal of Australia</a>. It is peer reviewed. But peer review only tells us that the model is accurate for what it claims to do, not whether or not it is the right model for the decisions being made.</p>
<p>The model is an “agent-based” epidemiological model. </p>
<p>That means that unlike the standard “<a href="https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model">SIR</a>” model which uses as inputs the number of <a href="https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model">Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered</a> individuals and explicitly lists equations to describe behaviour and information flows, this one is a computer simulation based on the interaction of agents. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weve-had-imperial-oxford-and-many-more-models-but-none-can-have-all-the-answers-135137">Coronavirus: we've had 'Imperial', 'Oxford' and many more models – but none can have all the answers</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>It runs the simulation over and over again as agents randomly run into each other, and observes how the pandemic progresses. That can be a useful approach, but it is heavily dependent upon a critical assumption: that agents spread the virus by interacting with neighbours, but that (in order to make those interactions computable) the geographical distribution of those agents is pretty smooth. </p>
<p>This means such models don’t divide the population into groups, with the result that, if there is a little bit of the virus somewhere, they predict it will eventually end up everywhere. They invite the conclusion that the best way to stop the virus ending up everywhere is to eliminate the cause of transmission, which is people movement.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, that is what Victoria has decided to do. </p>
<p>It used a model that is well-calibrated but is based on people moving around, and then decided to stop people moving around because, not surprisingly, in the model that is about the only thing that works.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<h2>Is it the right model?</h2>
<p>Recall that the premise of the agent-based model is that people interact with neighbours and are linked in a fairly smooth, albeit probabilistic, manner. </p>
<p>Here is a map of the pattern of outbreaks across greater Melbourne where the strongest lockdowns are in place.</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356705/original/file-20200907-18-em86lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data">Victoria Department of Health and Human Services</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>This is the pattern right now, but I have been watching all along and it has been the same throughout. </p>
<p>The pattern suggests that people interact more intensively within their own local areas than in ways that create the same probability of transmission city-wide. </p>
<p>It also suggests that if you are going to have a stringent lockdown and need resources to make that work, there are places where it is more important to put resources than others.</p>
<p>A couple of other things are worth observing. </p>
<p>If you check Google Trends data for a common COVID-19 symptom such as <a href="https://www.webmd.com/brain/anosmia-loss-of-smell#1">anosmia</a>, it shows people have been googling this term at a fairly steady rate since April. </p>
<p>Hopefully, that means there are not large numbers of people the government is missing in tests. (A huge surge in Google searches of common symptoms at a time when new case numbers didn’t appear to be surging might suggest undiscovered infections).</p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356708/original/file-20200907-18-1n4hgqu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2020-03-01%202020-09-07&geo=AU-VIC&q=%2Fm%2F0m7pl">Google Trends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>Finally, summer is coming. If allowed to, people will get outdoors more and, from what we know about the coronavirus, that <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/deciding-to-go-out.html">drastically reduces spread</a>. </p>
<h2>What should Victoria do?</h2>
<p>The government should make public any other modelling it has done and explain how it compares with the model it is using. </p>
<p>There is too much economic cost to additional months of lockdown not to do this. </p>
<p>It is important to take into account network patterns — how people move around in their city and social groups.</p>
<p>Second, the government could make reopening either postcode-based or local government area based. That way the government can monitor whether the low-prevalence areas it reopens first have outbreaks and use that to inform the pace of reopening. </p>
<p>It can use real-time information to update restrictions fortnight by fortnight.</p>
<p>Toronto, Canada where I now live, has a footprint as large as Melbourne and did not treat the entire area as one as it reopened. It has worked reasonably well although the goal pushed in Toronto is a lesser one than elimination.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tracking-victorias-job-losses-theres-no-road-to-recovery-without-containing-covid-19-145621">Tracking Victoria's job losses: there's no road to recovery without containing COVID-19</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>Taking the whole of Melbourne as your unit for triggers does not seem to be compatible with the nature of the outbreak. </p>
<p>The most defensible case for it is based on the idea that people regularly travel long distances throughout Greater Melbourne. A middle case is that policing a location-by-location lockdown is harder than policing a city-wide lockdown. </p>
<p>The least defensible case is based on some notion of fairness. </p>
<p>Third, the government should encourage people to be outside as much as possible. No mask mandate outdoors. A more relaxed approach to outdoor gatherings would make the job of enforcing the important directives much easier. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-long-will-i-have-to-wear-a-mask-can-single-people-visit-a-sharehouse-common-questions-answered-about-victorias-new-roadmap-145682">How long will I have to wear a mask? Can single people visit a sharehouse? Common questions answered about Victoria's new roadmap</a>
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<p>Google mobility reports suggest people are <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-09-01_AU_Victoria_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">getting out more anyway</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, and I can’t emphasise this strongly enough, test and trace - and quickly! This is the theme of the updated edition of <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/economics-in-the-age-of-covid19">my book</a> and I cover ways of doing it in a pandemic <a href="https://joshuagans.substack.com/about">newsletter</a>. </p>
<p>Lockdowns alone won’t get infections to zero. But when cases are low, aggressive identification and isolation of infectious people will. </p>
<p>Victoria is in striking distance of getting infections to zero while avoiding economic pain. </p>
<p>It should double down and do it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Gans is affiliated with the Creative Destruction Lab.</span></em></p>The modelling assumes infections are fairly evenly distributed. They are not. It ought to be possible to reopen low-infection postcodes first.Joshua Gans, Professor of Strategic Management, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456822020-09-07T03:57:01Z2020-09-07T03:57:01ZHow long will I have to wear a mask? Can single people visit a sharehouse? Common questions answered about Victoria’s new roadmap<p>The Victorian government’s <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">roadmap</a> out of pandemic lockdowns includes new provisions for single people living alone and single parents: the <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">“single social bubble” system</a>, which comes into effect on September 14.</p>
<p>Under the new system, if you’re a single person living alone or a single parent with children under 18, you can nominate one other person to be a part of your bubble. </p>
<p>The nominated person can visit your home and you can visit theirs — but only under certain circumstances. Both the single person and the nominated person must wear masks during the visit.</p>
<p>The system will replace the old rule, under which people could leave the house to visit an intimate or romantic partner but not a friend.</p>
<p>We collected answers to some common questions and asked three experts — an epidemiologist, an academic who researches sharehouses, and a philosophy researcher who examines how governments make rules around different types of relationships — to reflect on the new rules.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CEx6rGbHT-M","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>How long will I have to wear a mask?</h2>
<p>Potentially for a good while yet.</p>
<p>Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services told The Conversation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Masks will remain a tool in our fight against coronavirus for the foreseeable future. We have seen that there is more and more evidence to support the use of masks in slowing the spread of coronavirus. They are relatively inexpensive, accessible, and not too much of an imposition.</p>
<p>We expect that they will continue to be a part of our daily lives for some time to come.</p>
<p>FAQs for the roadmap to recovery in Victoria can be found on the Vic gov website <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">here</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>I’m single but live in a sharehouse or with family. Can I form a single social bubble with my friend?</h2>
<p>No. The government factsheet <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">says</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You can only nominate a person to be a part of your ‘single social bubble’ if you live alone, or are a single parent. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1302504498561048576"}"></div></p>
<h2>If you’re single and live alone, does the person you nominate also have to live alone?</h2>
<p>No. Your nominated person can live in a sharehouse or with family. The factsheet <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">says</a> “you are also able to visit them in their home, but only when they are alone.”</p>
<p>So their housemates or family must be out of the house when you (the single person) wants to visit.</p>
<h2>I live alone but am not single. Can I nominate a social bubble person to visit - my best friend or my sister, for example?</h2>
<p>You’re faced with a tough choice. According to the Victorian government’s <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">FAQ sheet</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>people must choose whether they wish to see their intimate partner or form a ‘single social bubble’ with another nominated person.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>If you designate someone to be in your bubble, is there some formal procedure? Do you have to register the person or get a permit?</h2>
<p>No. If you’re a single person living alone or a single parent, your “nominated person” doesn’t need a permit - the Victorian government <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">says</a> it’s relying on people to “do the right thing”.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<h2>The epidemiologist’s view: analysis from Mary-Louise McLaws</h2>
<p>I am glad the rule on masks is remaining in place for a while yet. It’s a cost effective way to reduce transmission.</p>
<p>I am pleased the government has responded to calls from the community for compassion. I have argued before in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">favour of the bubble concept</a>.</p>
<p>Yes, there are a lot of rules about how the single social bubble system will work in practice and some single people will miss out but I can understand why the authorities have done that.</p>
<p>On the rule that a single person can only visit their nominated person’s home if all other adult household members are out, I understand the logic and I think it’s reasonable and likely based on reducing the risk of spread to the household.</p>
<p>Yes, it might be tricky but you will be allowed to <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/first-step-restrictions-roadmap-FAQs">sit outside for two hours</a> with one other person, so you and your bestie could be in the park.</p>
<p>Nothing is going to be perfect. Everything will have some logistical challenges but the fact authorities are willing to insert a compassionate component into this roadmap at the first step is commendable. For the sake of those who need support, we need to work around it.</p>
<p>I understand why they have asked people to wear masks when a single person and a nominated person get together in a shared home. There’s still a risk of transmission to others living in the shared accommodation even when they aren’t at home during the visit because the visitor can exhale virus several days before they start to show symptoms. Exhaled virus particles can contaminate surfaces or remain in the air when air flow at home is not high.</p>
<p>I hope people do the right thing. People are desperate to see the person they love or the person that makes them happy to help them get through this pandemic.</p>
<p>I am so delighted authorities are understanding they need to keep people safe and safety includes compassion. This is a step forward. Yes, some people will miss out and yes there are issues around the rules that need to be made safe. But Australia hasn’t had a pandemic quite like this before. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people sitting in the park" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356680/original/file-20200907-24-yy8c94.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Socialising outside has a lower infection risk than indoors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The sharehouse researcher’s view: analysis from Katrina Raynor</h2>
<p>My research involved surveying more than a thousand people who have lived in a share house in Victoria at any time in 2020. We found many of them are already under <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/people-in-share-housing-are-struggling-to-cope-in-covid-19">intense pressure</a>.</p>
<p>I think the single social bubbles concept in the new roadmap is an excellent step, but will be experienced differently by people who live in sharehouses.</p>
<p>Throughout the pandemic, I think there has been a presumption towards nuclear families or couples in the way policies have been written. </p>
<p>Particularly in relation to the idea of single social bubbles idea, the idea that a single person living alone can only visit their nominated person if the nominated person is alone in their house — this could be incredibly tricky in practice. And it differs from how intimate partners are treated in the rules. </p>
<p>These rules could present an extra area of conflict for sharehouses, many of which are already in conflict. One person we interviewed described COVID-19 as being like Married at First Sight for housemates, and I think that is very true.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-now-has-a-good-roadmap-out-of-covid-19-restrictions-new-south-wales-should-emulate-it-145393">Victoria now has a good roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions. New South Wales should emulate it</a>
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<p>Rules that stipulate only one person per household can shop are also confusing for sharehouses — housemates tend to shop for their own needs rather than the “household’s”. I suspect there are many who are not or can not follow that particular rule. </p>
<p>While I understand why members of share households won’t be able to take advantage of the single social bubble from a public health perspective, I think many will continue to feel lonely. </p>
<p>We may presume these single people have a fulfilling relationship with their housemates and that’s not always the case.</p>
<h2>The philosopher’s view: analysis from Stephanie Collins</h2>
<p>I think the single social bubble concept is an improvement on the rules we had before, where people could only visit their intimate partners. That clearly was an instance of society privileging one type of relationship over another, which is a question I look at in my research.</p>
<p>I am not too worried about “coupled up” people who live with an intimate partner and can’t take advantage of the social bubble.</p>
<p>But I am a bit worried about people who are single and living in a sharehouse not being able to form a single social bubble. </p>
<p>People don’t always know their housemates particularly well and might not turn to their housemates for the kind of intimate psychological connections we know are so important for human flourishing. </p>
<p>But we have to acknowledge the law is a blunt instrument. It’s difficult for the government to say “if you are not friends with your housemates then you can visit a nominated person”. </p>
<p>I do think the government is in a difficult position. What they have come up with is not a terrible compromise but it certainly won’t solve every social connection problem. </p>
<p>In general, I am very much in favour of the single social bubble. I think the previous rule really unjustly favoured people in intimate relationships over other kinds of relationships. </p>
<p>I hope this rule sticks around if Victoria or other states need to lockdown again in future. This concept could be integrated and improved in an ongoing way and I hope it’s not a reactionary decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We asked an epidemiologist, an academic who researches sharehouses and a philosopher to reflect on Victoria’s new coronavirus rules.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLiam Petterson, Deputy Politics Editor, The Conversation AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456212020-09-07T03:18:11Z2020-09-07T03:18:11ZTracking Victoria’s job losses: there’s no road to recovery without containing COVID-19<p>The good news from Victoria’s road map to recovery is the stage 4 restrictions imposed in July are working, albeit more slowly than anyone wants. </p>
<p>The evidence also suggests the Victorian government’s “slow but sure” approach to easing those rules is the right strategy. Unless the risk of COVID-19 is suppressed, relaxing restrictions will not produce the economic recovery we want.</p>
<p>Under the plan announced by Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday, metropolitan Melbourne’s stage 4 restrictions are being extended till at least September 28, with some minor relaxations of curfew and exercise rules. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>Then – if the number of new COVID-19 cases is fewer than 50 a day – there will be further relaxation of public gatherings and home visits. Child care centres will reopen, and about 100,000 workers in construction, delivery, manufacturing and gardening will be allowed to go back to work.</p>
<p>More substantial resumption of businesses activity won’t occur until at least October 26 – and only then if the average number of new cases over the previous two weeks is less than five a day. </p>
<p>If that is achieved, the government will allow most retail shops to open, and cafes and restaurants to serve patrons sitting outdoors. Hairdressers will be back in business, but not other beauty and personal care services. </p>
<p>From November 23, if there have been no new cases for 14 days, all retail will reopen, and hospitality restrictions will relax further. </p>
<p>For regional Victoria, Andrews said, it would likely be just be a matter of weeks before moving to “a very different range of settings compared to metropolitan Melbourne”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A closed shop in Melbourne" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356640/original/file-20200906-22-xx1dpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Melbourne cafes and restaurants won’t be allowed to seat customers before late October.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andy Brownbill/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Blaming the lockdown, not the pandemic</h2>
<p>Critics of the Victorian government (and lockdowns generally) have argued its containment measures have caused more economic and social damage than would have been caused by the virus itself. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbournes-second-lockdown-spells-death-for-small-businesses-here-are-3-things-government-can-do-to-save-them-142173">Melbourne's second lockdown spells death for small businesses. Here are 3 things government can do to save them</a>
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<p>But others argue the short-term economic cost is more than justified by the longer term benefits. They point to evidence suggesting the economy will only recover once COVID-19 is eliminated and the community again feels confident to socialise and shop as before.</p>
<p>University of Chicago economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, for example, have <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3631180">analysed consumer behaviour</a> in neighbouring regions with different social distancing restrictions in the US. They found voluntary changes in behaviour to reduce risks of catching COVID-19 were the major driver of lower economic activity. Government-imposed restrictions, they calculated, accounted for less than 12% of the total effect.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-cost-of-lockdowns-is-nowhere-near-as-big-as-we-have-been-told-142710">Vital Signs: the cost of lockdowns is nowhere near as big as we have been told</a>
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<p>Victoria’s experience may provide more evidence on what is really driving the slowdown in economic activity. </p>
<p>Specifically, we can examine whether decreases in the number jobs appear to correspond more to growth in the COVID-19 caseload or to the timing of imposition of government restrictions.</p>
<p>The chart below displays how Victoria’s employment has tracked compared with the rest of Australia since the initial rise in COVID-19 cases in mid-March. It shows the difference (in percentage terms) between the decline in jobs in Victoria and the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>A number above zero means Victoria has lost a smaller share of its jobs than other states. A number below zero means a larger proportion of jobs have been lost. </p>
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<p><iframe id="pZM2G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pZM2G/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>As the chart shows, Victoria was following closely with other states till late April, then lost slightly more jobs through to late June. </p>
<p>But once COVID-19 re-emerged in late June, job losses in Victoria accelerated. By early August Victoria had lost about 4% more jobs than other states.</p>
<h2>Job losses began before restrictions</h2>
<p>The chart below shows how job numbers in accommodation and food services and arts and recreation services have changed in Victoria relative to other states. </p>
<p>These are the two sectors most affected by COVID-19, due to high levels of personal contact between and among customers and staff. The big question is to what extent the effect on employment in those sectors has been due to government rules or consumer behaviour.</p>
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<p><iframe id="UNvmn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UNvmn/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>The chart shows Victoria’s jobs changes in these two sectors were relatively consistent with the the rest of the country until June. (Arts and recreation did slightly better, food and accommodation slightly worse.)</p>
<p>The situation began to worsen in June with Victoria’s second-wave outbreak. This happened even before the Victorian government imposed stage 3 restriction on July 4.</p>
<p>In the two weeks prior to going back to stage 3, Victoria went from an average of about 16 new cases a day to 72 cases a day. Over the same period, the number of jobs in Victoria in accommodation and food services fell by 3%, and in arts and recreation services by 4.7%, compared with the rest of Australia. </p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303">The costs of the shutdown are overestimated -- they're outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit</a>
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<p>As well, after the imposition of stage 3 restrictions the pace of decrease in jobs in Victoria was relatively steady. It matched the rise in COVID-19 cases (to an average of more than 450 a day in early August). Job losses do not seem to have been bunched around the dates restrictions were imposed, as might be expected if those restrictions were the main explanation for job losses.</p>
<p>All of this suggests that while the Victorian government’s path to remove restrictions will undoubtedly influence the level of economic activity in the months ahead, relaxing restrictions immediately would not bring the economy back to where we were in March. </p>
<p>It would only make the road to full recovery much slower and more uncertain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Relaxing restrictions too soon would only cost more jobs in the long run.Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1453932020-09-06T20:16:24Z2020-09-06T20:16:24ZVictoria now has a good roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions. New South Wales should emulate it<p>The COVID-19 <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">roadmap for Victoria</a> announced by Premier Daniel Andrews sets the state on the right path. Something like it should be emulated by New South Wales, which has not yet achieved zero new cases.</p>
<p>Victoria’s roadmap towards what Andrews calls “COVID-normal” makes a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">clear distinction between metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria</a>. Restrictions are marginally less severe in regional Victoria, where the incidence of infections is lower.</p>
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<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>For metropolitan Melbourne there are five steps; regional Victoria has four. For each step, the roadmap outlines which restrictions will be lifted on our road towards the cherished status of COVID-normal – or zero active cases of COVID-19. The roadmap also provisionally outlines when restrictions will be lifted, although this depends on case numbers. </p>
<p>For metropolitan Melbourne, the curfew will be eased from next week to start at 9pm instead of 8pm. It will remain in place until new cases average fewer than five per day over the course of a fortnight – the criterion to move to the third step of the roadmap. </p>
<p>The first two steps will still entail significant restrictions on public gatherings and visitors, plus the creation of a “single social bubble” allowance, under which people living alone can designate a person who can visit their home. Staged school returns will begin once there are fewer than 50 cases a day on a fortnightly average.</p>
<p>Step three sees the partial resumption of Melbourne’s café culture, as well as hairdressing. </p>
<p>A new <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">traffic light system</a> will also be introduced to allow a <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/industry-restrictions-roadmap-metro-melbourne">phased reopening for businesses and workplaces</a>.</p>
<h2>Is the roadmap heading in the right direction?</h2>
<p>Grattan Institute’s four-point plan, detailed in our report last week titled <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">Go for zero</a>, argues that states should reaffirm the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-24jul20">National Cabinet’s target of zero transmissions</a> and set clear criteria for easing restrictions.</p>
<p>The Victorian roadmap keeps appropriate restrictions until zero active cases – the Grattan criterion for defining zero – before the final step on the roadmap, COVID-normal.</p>
<p>Grattan’s second criterion – clear and explicit staging of the easing of restrictions – is also met in the Victorian roadmap, but in a confusing way. The thresholds adopted in the Victorian plan are a mishmash of epidemiological criteria, case numbers and dates.</p>
<p>It is entirely appropriate that the roadmap’s dates are purely provisional, and subject to epidemiological criteria such as average case numbers. But this raises the question of why the roadmap has dates at all.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/slow-and-steady-exit-from-lockdown-as-victorian-government-sets-sights-on-covid-normal-christmas-145558">'Slow and steady' exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on 'COVID-normal' Christmas</a>
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<p>Victorians may read the epidemiological criteria as reasons to bring forward the provisional dates for easing restrictions, when in reality they are more likely to put the provisional dates back. The public might end up frustrated if the promised date passes with no reward for good behaviour.</p>
<p>The epidemiological criteria are expressed in an extremely complex way: a 14-day threshold average, plus further criteria based on the source of infection. Until now, the public’s attention has been focused simply on the number of new cases each day. </p>
<p>Introducing this more complex measure is a step backward. Expressing the criterion as an average also runs the risk of the threshold being met but the final few days of the 14-day averaging period revealing an upward trend. A simple and clear criterion, based on number of new cases, would have been better.</p>
<h2>Politics as well as science?</h2>
<p>The Victorian government has trumpeted the use of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/victoria-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-modelling/12633906">epidemiological modelling to support its decisions</a>. However the first two steps seem to be driven by a mix of politics and science.</p>
<p>Step one will occur on September 13, regardless of the number of new cases detected between now and then. The new case threshold for step two is expressed as an average of 30-50 cases a day over the previous 14 days. It is unclear why there is a lower bound; why not just say “fewer than 50 cases”? If it is designed to give political flexibility, it defeats the purpose of clear criteria.</p>
<p>Knowledge of the coronavirus and how it works – both in terms of clinical treatment and public health science – is advancing rapidly. We now know more about <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223">which restrictions work best</a> than we did when Melbourne first entered its Stage 4 lockdown. </p>
<p>Some restrictions included in the roadmap – such as night curfews – now have a weak evidence base. The evidence is also stronger now in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext">allowing primary schools to return</a> before secondary schools, but the roadmap takes no account of this distinction. It is a pity the roadmap doesn’t align more closely with the latest science.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/children-might-play-a-bigger-role-in-covid-transmission-than-first-thought-schools-must-prepare-144947">Children might play a bigger role in COVID transmission than first thought. Schools must prepare</a>
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<p>Lockdowns are necessary, but they have big downsides which need to be weighed against the undoubted benefits. One main downside is that they <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/waves-of-inequity-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic/">hit the most disadvantaged people hardest</a>. The cost of social isolation has been somewhat ameliorated in the roadmap, with its provision for “social bubbles”, but this could perhaps have been more generous. </p>
<p>Overall, Victoria’s roadmap is good. It identifies the right goal (zero active cases), it provides explicit criteria for when restrictions might be lifted (but unfortunately not as clear and simple as they could be), and each of the steps involves mostly appropriate restrictions. </p>
<p>Victorians have every reason to share in Andrews’ hopefulness for a COVID-normal Christmas to cap off a very difficult year.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website</span></em></p>Overall, Victoria’s roadmap is good. It identifies the right goal, provides explicit criteria for when restrictions might be lifted, and involves mostly appropriate restrictions.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455582020-09-06T08:50:30Z2020-09-06T08:50:30Z‘Slow and steady’ exit from lockdown as Victorian government sets sights on ‘COVID-normal’ Christmas<p>The Victorian government today announced the eagerly anticipated roadmap out of COVID-19 lockdown. It features several steps that reflect a much slower relaxing of restrictions than last time around.</p>
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<p>While the government has provided a provisional time frame for the various steps, it is data, not dates, that will determine when restrictions are actually eased. </p>
<p>We applaud this strategy. The virus does not obey a timeline. Rather, we have to beat it down to a level at which easing of restrictions is safer.</p>
<h2>What was announced?</h2>
<p>Metropolitan Melbourne’s current stage 4 restrictions will be extended for two weeks, to September 27. But from 11:59pm on September 13, there will be a few key changes. </p>
<p>The nightly curfew will be shortened by one hour, and will be in place from 9pm to 5am. Also, two people or a single household can meet outdoors for two hours maximum, up from the previous one hour, for exercise or recreation. </p>
<p>For people living alone, and single parents with children under 18, there will be a “single person bubble” policy that allows them to designate one other person who can visit their home.</p>
<p>Regional Victoria is already faring better than Melbourne, and will have a faster timeline.</p>
<p>Premier Daniel Andrews wants to maximise the chance of getting to Christmas in something like stage 1, while minimising the chance of a third wave of infection that sends the state back into lockdown. This means staying in strict restrictions for longer, and easing out more gradually.</p>
<h2>How did data influence the decision?</h2>
<p>The Victorian government’s decision was based in part on the output of a model developed by researchers at the University of Melbourne and the University of New England. It simulates population movements in a simplified world, based on parameters that describe the spread of COVID-19 and people’s interactions with each other. </p>
<p>In the real world, these patterns are highly random. So the researchers ran the model 1,000 times, with thresholds for relaxing (or tightening) restrictions set at an average of 25, 10, and 5 cases per day on a fortnightly basis. The model could then report the probability, under a given set of policy settings, of having to lock Victoria down again before Christmas. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">Victoria's path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides</a>
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<p>Opening up too soon is likely to cause a third wave. In simulations in which restrictions were eased once average daily cases dipped below 25 per day, there was a 62% likelihood of new lockdowns. But with restrictions retained until daily cases dropped below 5 daily cases, the lockdown likelihood was just 3%. </p>
<p>Viewed in that light, it is easy to see why the Andrews government opted to set strict criteria for lifting restrictions, knowing that short-term pain is better than the economic ravages of another lockdown in the long term. </p>
<h2>What might hold Victoria back?</h2>
<p>First, there’s the elephant in the room — the quality of Victorian contact tracing (especially in comparison to New South Wales). Living with the virus requires high-quality contact tracing. There’s no doubt contact tracing in Victoria has improved since June when our second wave started. There is therefore a real possibility that we may get the case numbers down faster, and hold off resurgences of case numbers more effectively or for longer than the modelling suggests. </p>
<p>Second, infection disease control in health care and aged care has not been up to scratch in Victoria (compared with, dare we say it again, New South Wales). These represent particularly dangerous settings. Older adults are much more likely to become severely ill with COVID-19, whereas health-care workers who become infected with the coronavirus risk infecting the most vulnerable and reduce health capacity when it is most needed. </p>
<p>And of course, health and aged care workers live in the community too, and if community restrictions are relaxed the virus will leak back out through family members and surge again. The Victorian government decided to deal with both community and health-care transmission simultaneously. We think that it is the right approach.</p>
<h2>Is elimination still possible?</h2>
<p>There were strong arguments for an explicit <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/probability-6-week-lockdown-victoria-commencing-9-july-2020-achieving-elimination">elimination strategy back in early July</a>, requiring “going hard” for a six-week lockdown. Unfortunately, Victoria didn’t go hard early enough. The government waited three weeks, numbers got out of control, and then we went into stage 4. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a huge missed opportunity.</p>
<p>The Grattan Institute is also <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">arguing strongly</a> for an explicit elimination strategy and much longer hard lockdowns. It argues this will result in better economic outcomes in the long run. An <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20185587v1">impressive modelling paper</a> by Australian National University researchers also supports the theory that elimination is better for both health and the economy in the long run (although this paper has not yet been peer-reviewed).</p>
<p>However, things have changed in the past two months. First, we are now closer to a vaccine, so in theory the long-term payoff for short-term pain will arrive sooner. Second, New Zealand (and Queensland) have taught us that elimination can be lost. Third, NSW has taught us you can live with the virus at low levels (so far). Fourth, the imminent border openings and hotspot strategy are not really consistent with the hard border controls needed to defend elimination in places that achieve it.</p>
<p>Andrews aptly termed the state’s strategy “aggressive suppression”. It may even achieve elimination, as the first wave effort so nearly did. We hope it does – but do not bank on it.</p>
<p>It’s in our hands now, both the government and citizens. With some good luck – and few would begrudge Victorians a little of that – the roadmap will pan out as planned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laxman Bablani receives funding from The Health Research Council of New Zealand.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Driss Ait Ouakrim does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers created an artificial society inside a computer to model what would happen to virus transmission under different policies. It helped inform Victoria’s exit strategy.Laxman Bablani, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneDriss Ait Ouakrim, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456742020-09-06T06:06:30Z2020-09-06T06:06:30ZVictoria’s path out of COVID-19 lockdown – quick reference guides<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356634/original/file-20200906-20-1axuro6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C1017%2C3964%2C2502&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Premier Dan Andrews and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton on Sunday announced steps to slowly ease COVID-19 restrictions in metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria.</p>
<p>There are four steps before Victoria totally opens up - a goal Andrews refers to as “COVID-normal”. Melburnians will have to wait a bit longer than regional Victorians before an easing of curfews and restrictions on leaving the house.</p>
<p>But there is now a clear set of thresholds and restrictions for what a COVID “safe” Victoria should look like over the coming months:</p>
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<p>The easing of restrictions for regional Victoria starts at Step 2, and involves some thresholds that are independent of metropolitan Melbourne.</p>
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Victorian Premier Dan Andrews and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton on Sunday announced steps to slowly ease COVID-19 restrictions in metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria. There are four steps…Michael Hopkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, The ConversationWes Mountain, Social Media + Visual Storytelling EditorLiam Petterson, Deputy Politics Editor, The Conversation AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1454482020-09-03T08:21:32Z2020-09-03T08:21:32Z4 perspectives on how Victoria should exit stage 4 lockdown<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355948/original/file-20200902-14-g8suhf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C7%2C5302%2C3537&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Ross/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Metropolitan Melbourne’s <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stage-4-restrictions-summary-covid-19">stage 4 lockdown</a> is due to end on Sunday September 13. </p>
<p>While there’s been much speculation around <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/vic-may-endure-masks-curfew-past-lockdown-c-1287895">what will come next</a>, we’ll have a clearer picture <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/victorian-road-map-to-reopen-scheduled-for-sunday-20200831-p55qt5">this Sunday</a>, when Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announces the state’s “roadmap” for easing COVID-19 restrictions.</p>
<p>Ahead of this announcement, we asked four experts what they see as the most important aspects of Victoria’s path out of stage 4.</p>
<h2>Trade-offs and transparency</h2>
<p><strong>Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia</strong></p>
<p>I believe we need a much more nuanced approach than simply, say, going back to stage 3 restrictions. </p>
<p>The stage 4 restrictions are taking a heavy toll on people’s <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30308-4/fulltext">mental health</a>. Every restriction must be carefully examined as a trade-off between improved quality of life and increased probability of transmission.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-flatten-the-other-coronavirus-curve-our-looming-mental-health-crisis-137170">We need to flatten the 'other' coronavirus curve, our looming mental health crisis</a>
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<p>There are some no-brainers. Anecdotally, many people are already breaking the one-hour limit on daily exercise. Increasing it to two hours per day would be a great relief and should have little effect on transmission, provided people stick to social distancing.</p>
<p>Similarly, it’s not clear what evidence underpins the rule that bans people from travelling more than 5km from home (with some exceptions). Surely it could be increased to, say, 10km with little impact on case numbers.</p>
<p>UNSW epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws has suggested a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">bubble approach</a>, which allows spending time with nominated people outside one’s own household. This would go a long way to reducing loneliness for those living on their own.</p>
<p>The 8pm-5am curfew has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/07/is-melbournes-coronavirus-curfew-likely-to-be-effective-we-ask-the-experts">contentious</a>, with some experts arguing more attention should be placed on workplace safety rather than policing people’s movements. Given the high number of cases arising from nursing homes and health-care settings, there’s some merit in this argument.</p>
<p>Some restrictions, such as mandatory face masks, probably need to stay for a while longer.</p>
<p>Whatever actions the Victorian government takes at the end of lockdown, I would like it to publish the reasoning and evidence behind the restrictions that remain. This would go a long way towards building public trust.</p>
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<img alt="Young man sits on couch, thinking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356195/original/file-20200903-20-qgo7hl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A bubble approach could make a big difference for people living alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Being prepared for any sign of resurgence</h2>
<p><strong>C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, UNSW</strong></p>
<p>The best path out of stage 4 would be, once daily cases are in the low double digits, to use a step-wise, careful easing of restrictions, maintain the mask mandate, and to promote mask use as a tool that enables freedom rather than removes it. The biggest problem is asymptomatic infection, which means we cannot always identify who is infected and infectious.</p>
<p>We also need to keep up social distancing, make testing easy by continuing to provide drive-through sites widely, control the size and structure of gatherings, and continue hotel quarantine programs (heeding lessons from previous mistakes).</p>
<p>Importantly, we should have <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/elimination-eradication-and-myth-living-certain-level-covid-19">a low and clearly defined threshold</a> for increasing the use of these measures, including lockdowns, at the first sign of a resurgence. A few weeks’ delay or procrastination can see the epidemic grow as it did in Melbourne within weeks, from low double digits to high triple digits.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-face-mask-should-i-wear-142373">Which face mask should I wear?</a>
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<p>We will continue to live with COVID-19 until we have an effective vaccine. Until then it will be a balancing act between applying and releasing the brakes to enable as much activity as possible, while keeping the disease under control.</p>
<p>As we approach the end of the year and the festive season, we want to make sure the disease incidence is as low as possible, or we could face a large resurgence after New Year. </p>
<p>Plans for safe Christmas and New Year activities should be starting now. This includes seriously considering the safety of religious services, given the risky combination of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html">large gatherings with singing</a>. If going ahead, religious services should be smaller in size, socially distanced, outdoors if possible, or with open windows combined with fans.</p>
<h2>Opening up the performing arts</h2>
<p><strong>Philip Russo, Associate Professor, Monash University</strong></p>
<p>The first steps of the roadmap need to include a reopening of performing arts venues in Victoria. In regional centres, these venues are often the cultural lifeblood of the town, and a return to live entertainment will offer some minor relief to small businesses, and importantly, provide entertainment, joy and hope to the community.</p>
<p>Some simple strategies can minimise any risk of COVID-19 transmission in these settings. </p>
<p>First, make use of any outdoor venues and provide <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/social-distanced-music-festival-intl-scli-gbr/index.html">controlled audience sections</a> (where individual groups are separated from one another). Indoors, restrict attendance to 25% of house capacity, and over time that can increase. </p>
<p>Second, for outdoor or indoor venues, minimise the number of performers on stage, ensure performers step no further than mid-stage, and keep the first four or so rows empty. Cast and crew would need to continue to physically distance, and they might also undergo regular testing. </p>
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<img alt="Man plays saxophone to outdoor audience." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356238/original/file-20200903-18-34ksd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Utilising outdoor spaces would be a good way to get performing arts up and running again.</span>
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<p>The audience would need to wear masks, as well as provide their contact details in case of the need to follow up.</p>
<p>Minimise mingling of the audience. No hanging out in the foyer before or after the show, and no interval. Get in, get out. And no loitering near the stage door to meet your idol. </p>
<p>Other strategies could include temperature checking on arrival, and using one door in and one door out. If successful, audience and performer numbers could gradually increase.</p>
<p>If all this was in place, it’s quite likely it would be safer to go the to the theatre than to your local supermarket.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-covid-bubble-concept-and-could-it-work-in-australia-144938">What is the COVID 'bubble' concept, and could it work in Australia?</a>
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<h2>A focus on prevention for safe work and play</h2>
<p><strong>Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin University</strong></p>
<p>The way ahead needs to be focused as much on prevention as it is on response. We need early warning systems and reliable contact tracing for outbreak identification and control, but we also need more emphasis on how we prevent transmission in the first instance.</p>
<p>Prevention is in our hands. Wearing masks, particularly when we can’t <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext">physically distance</a> and <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2">in indoor public settings</a>, will reduce transmission, minimise the likelihood restrictions will need to be reintroduced, and pave the way for a time when we might not have to wear masks all the time outdoors.</p>
<p>Our essential workplaces are now operating under COVID-safe plans, and other businesses and industries will need COVID-safe plans to reopen.</p>
<p>We now have the advantage of warmer weather ahead. If cafes and pubs can set up more outdoor seating alongside spaced seating indoors, and if everyone practises good hygiene and distancing, we can work and play safely.</p>
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<img alt="People moving through a laneway in Melbourne with cafes on each side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356207/original/file-20200903-20-1vgftww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Many Victorians are keen to get back to restaurants and cafes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>The idea of a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">traffic light</a>” alert system is a hot topic right now. This approach designates areas at different levels of transmission, with corresponding travel or other restrictions to be implemented depending on whether the area is green, amber or red. </p>
<p>But blanket restrictions on movement, social networking and business operation are not a precise way to disrupt local transmission chains. We must aim to be as targeted as possible in our interventions to minimise collateral damage as we contain outbreaks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">Could 'traffic-light' alerts help Victoria exit lockdown safely?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>C Raina MacIntyre currently receives funding from NHMRC: Principal Research Fellowship, Centre for Research Excellence; Medical Research Futures Fund. In the past five years she has received research grants from Sanofi and Seqirus </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Russo is the President of the Australasian College for Infection Prevention and Control. He is Deputy Chair of the Infection Control Expert Group to the Department of Health, a member of the COVID Evidence Taskforce Steering Committee, the Australian Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on AMR, the Healthcare Associated Infection Advisory Committee to the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, and a member of the Australian College of Nursing. He is also the recipient of a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship, and has received research funding from the Rosemary Norman Foundation, Cardinal Health, Australian College of Nursing and the Cabrini Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman and Catherine Bennett do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ahead of the release of Victoria’s roadmap out of lockdown, we asked four experts to explain what they see as the most important aspects of the state’s path out of stage 4.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaCatherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology, Deakin UniversityC Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyPhilip Russo, Associate Professor, Director Cabrini Monash University Department of Nursing Research, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449312020-08-24T09:00:57Z2020-08-24T09:00:57ZCould ‘traffic-light’ alerts help Victoria exit lockdown safely?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354318/original/file-20200824-20-1830nyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C37%2C4887%2C3285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/aug/24/coronavirus-australia-latest-updates-health-economy-business-queensland-hotspots-victoria-hotel-inquiry-parliament-scott-morrison-josh-frydenberg-jobkeeper-follow-live">Victoria recorded 116 new cases of COVID-19</a>, the lowest number of daily cases since June 5. </p>
<p>As the number of new daily confirmed cases begins to decline, we need to consider how to ease restrictions as efficiently as possible without overwhelming health services. </p>
<p>But moving into a “new normal” won’t be simple. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30004-3/fulltext">At least 94 countries</a> are undergoing or exiting lockdowns to control the COVID-19 pandemic, and governments are looking for sustainable exit strategies that won’t lead to a surge in coronavirus cases.</p>
<p>One option is a traffic-light alert system, which is already being used around the world to classify whether travel is safe and inform restrictions in the classroom.</p>
<h2>When can we exit lockdown?</h2>
<p>Ultimately, before we exit lockdown, we need to be confident the changes won’t risk yet another wave of infections. The Victorian government has yet to reveal its map for navigating out of lockdown, but it’s likely several key criteria will need to be met before restrictions can be eased. </p>
<p>These include making sure the health-care system can cope, and ensuring a sustained and consistent downturn in deaths and daily “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-has-recorded-179-new-covid-19-cases-20200821-p55nws.html">mystery cases</a>”. Mystery cases can’t be linked to any known outbreaks, so close contacts can’t be isolated to limit the spread of the virus. For this reason, a consistent reduction in these cases is especially important.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-victorians-stick-to-the-stage-4-rules-our-perception-of-what-others-are-doing-might-be-the-key-143252">Can Victorians stick to the stage 4 rules? Our perception of what others are doing might be the key</a>
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<h2>Are “traffic light” restrictions a go?</h2>
<p>UNSW epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws first proposed the traffic light model after the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html">SARS outbreak of 2003</a>, when she was reviewing the response to the Beijing outbreak.</p>
<p>Red, amber and green alerts – <a href="https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-restrictions/about-fire-danger-ratings">similar to those used during the bushfire season</a> – could be used as part of such a system. The level of threat would be based on the average number of new infections over a two-week period. Colour-coded alerts would then signal to the public when mask-wearing is required – much like they warn of the fire-danger level during bushfire season.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-lockdowns-have-human-costs-as-well-as-benefits-its-time-to-consider-both-137233">COVID lockdowns have human costs as well as benefits. It's time to consider both</a>
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<p>Professor McLaws has <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/traffic-light-mask-restrictions-proposed-once-stage-four-lockdown-ends-20200821-p55o6s.html">suggested</a> hitting 100 new cases per fortnight would prompt a red alert, leading to the reintroduction of measures to stop the spread of the virus. But new cases in the low double figures would give the green light to opening up restaurants, cafes and shops – with social distancing rules still in place. </p>
<h2>Why might it be effective?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/study-proposes-50-days-on-30-days-off-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy.html">Researchers from nine countries</a> simulated how different lockdown strategies would impact the spread of the coronavirus. For places such as Melbourne, the researchers suggested an effective approach to lockdowns would be to alternate stricter measures with intervals of relaxed physical distancing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-lockdown-fatigue-sets-in-the-toll-on-mental-health-will-require-an-urgent-response-143817">As 'lockdown fatigue' sets in, the toll on mental health will require an urgent response</a>
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<p>As the city enters the halfway mark of its strict stage four lockdown, Melburnians are beginning to show signs of fatigue. So a traffic light alert approach could be beneficial in combating the difficulties associated with restricted living.</p>
<p>And as <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/melburnians-showing-signs-of-lockdown-fatigue-as-cases-continue-to-fall-20200822-p55oam.html">Premier Daniel Andrews said</a>, if fatigue gets the better of us, the virus will spread more rapidly, meaning lives will be lost and lockdown will need to be extended.</p>
<h2>What are the drawbacks?</h2>
<p>Unlike Melbourne’s current six-week lockdown, under the traffic-light system restriction levels could change more regularly depending on the number of cases. This could potentially result in confusion among the public regarding what each colour actually means.</p>
<p>Professor McLaws suggests having a defined number of cases associated with each “colour” could help the public understand when certain restrictions are to be implemented. She proposed changes to current alert levels could be communicated through an app and in the media.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/here-is-why-you-might-be-feeling-tired-while-on-lockdown-135502">Here is why you might be feeling tired while on lockdown</a>
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<h2>Already in use?</h2>
<p>Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) have developed a tool that uses the well-known traffic light system to visualise worldwide trends in coronavirus infection. The “<a href="https://vis.csh.ac.at/corona-traffic-light/world/">CSH Corona Traffic Light</a>” shows countries in green, amber or red based on the confirmed cases within the past two weeks.</p>
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<span class="caption">A traffic light alert system is already being used in Austria to determine restrictions in the classroom.</span>
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<p>Traffic-light systems have also been introduced in <a href="https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-17/Hungary-introduces-COVID-19-traffic-light-system-for-new-arrivals-SaXY9ybcsw/index.html">Hungary</a>, <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-which-tourist-hotspots-might-get-the-green-light-for-travel-12015872">the United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-new-colour-coded-alerts-will-work-like-traffic-lights-harris-says-1.4328400">Ireland</a>, <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/121483/belgiums-traffic-light-travel-system-updated/">Belgium</a> and <a href="https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=bb9513d1-b2ba-4dbf-8edf-4a7f6b717354">Mexico</a> to classify travel to other countries as safe or otherwise, depending on the prevalence of coronavirus. And more recently, <a href="https://www.vindobona.org/article/austria-introduces-traffic-light-system-as-schools-are-reopening">Austria introduced a traffic-light system</a> as schools began reopening, to determine restrictions in the classroom. </p>
<h2>The “non-negotiables”</h2>
<p>No matter what type of system Victoria uses to come out of lockdown there will likely be some “non-negotiables” as part of our new normal.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9.pdf">Recent evidence</a> suggests wearing face masks reduces the risk of catching and spreading coronavirus. And face masks will probably continue to be a feature of Victoria’s pandemic response <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-22/victoria-smorgasbord-factors-before-melbourne-lifts-stage-4/12583638">after the loosening of stage four restrictions</a>.</p>
<p>Effective testing, contact tracing and isolation strategies, as well as efforts to protect our most vulnerable, should also be consistently kept in place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144931/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The traffic light alert system, first proposed in response to the 2003 Beijing SARS outbreak, is already being used around the world to classify travel and inform restrictions in classrooms.Erin Smith, Associate Professor in Disaster and Emergency Response, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438982020-08-05T20:00:57Z2020-08-05T20:00:57ZTwo weeks of mandatory masks, but a record 725 new cases: why are Melbourne’s COVID-19 numbers so stubbornly high?<p>Melburnians have now been wearing mandatory face coverings in public <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-200-fine-for-not-wearing-a-mask-is-fair-as-long-as-free-masks-go-to-those-in-need-142988">for two weeks</a>. Yet Premier Daniel Andrews yesterday announced another grim milestone in Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19 infections: 725 new cases, a record daily tally for any Australian state since the pandemic began.</p>
<p>Four weeks after Melbourne reintroduced stage 3 restrictions, logic suggests the coronavirus curve should have flattened and begun heading downwards by now. And on July 27, Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-27/coronavirus-cases-rise-again-as-victorians-go-to-work-while-sick/12495898">suggested</a> the plateauing figures could represent the peak of the state’s daily case numbers.</p>
<p>But on August 2, Andrews announced Melbourne was moving to even stricter stage 4 restrictions, imposing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-disaster-called-as-melbourne-moves-to-nightly-curfew-and-stage-4-restrictions-143804">night-time curfew</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/takeaway-coffee-allowed-but-no-wandering-through-bunnings-heres-why-melbournes-new-business-restrictions-will-reduce-cases-143814">shutting down a swathe of Victorian businesses</a> for a further six weeks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/which-mask-works-best-we-filmed-people-coughing-and-sneezing-to-find-out-143173">Which mask works best? We filmed people coughing and sneezing to find out</a>
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<iframe title="Victoria's COVID-19 case curve" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-91i3i" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/91i3i/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="522"></iframe>
<h2>Why haven’t masks made a difference?</h2>
<p>The premier <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-04/victoria-coronavirus-cases-deaths-rise-self-isolation-fines/12520954">announced on Tuesday</a> a new deterrent aimed at those who continue to disregard the self-isolation restrictions: a fine of A$4,957, the largest on-the-spot fine applicable in Victoria. People who repeatedly breach the rules can also be taken to court, where the maximum penalty is A$20,000.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, proper, widespread use of masks by the public <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9.pdf">should have made a big dent in coronavirus numbers</a>. So why hasn’t there been a drop in cases?</p>
<p>It can’t be blamed entirely on the government’s response. A portion of the blame also lies with the public.</p>
<p>Philip Russo, president of the Australasian College of Infection Prevention and Control, last week <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-07-28/coronavirus-vic-lockdowns-why-arent-cases-coming-down-experts/12495100">lamented</a> the “really obvious disoedience” displayed by some people, and speculated masks may also have created a false sense of security among the wider public who may view masks as more effective than they truly are.</p>
<p>Andrews said “far too many people” <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-27/coronavirus-cases-rise-again-as-victorians-go-to-work-while-sick/12495898">were going to work while sick</a>, labelling this behaviour “the biggest driver of transmission” in the state. The stage 4 restrictions will clamp down heavily on this.</p>
<p>Julie Leask, a social scientist at the University of Sydney, said workers’ reluctance to call in sick is linked to how financially stable they feel, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-07-28/coronavirus-vic-lockdowns-why-arent-cases-coming-down-experts/12495100">explaining</a> that for casual workers:</p>
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<p>isolation after a test could mean no work, less chance you will get a shift in future, and considerable financial stress. In that situation, it’s easy to rationalise a scratchy throat as just being a bit of a cold.</p>
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<p>Another difficulty is the lag time between when someone is infected and when they start showing symptoms.</p>
<p>What we are seeing now is actually infections from <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/with-new-case-numbers-so-high-is-melbourne-s-lockdown-failing-20200728-p55g9r.html">5-10 days ago</a>. And any public health interventions implemented now will take 5-10 days to show an effect.</p>
<p>Taking this time lag into account, the full effect of mandatory mask wearing will start to be seen this week.</p>
<p>We also know COVID-19 thrives in environments where it can quickly infect large numbers of people - and the recent uptick in cases has largely been driven by workplace transmission which occurred <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-19/workplace-coronavirus-transmission-in-victoria-in-aged-care/12470704">before the stage 4 restrictions came into effect</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/far-too-many-victorians-are-going-to-work-while-sick-far-too-many-have-no-choice-143600">'Far too many' Victorians are going to work while sick. Far too many have no choice</a>
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<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/federal-government-to-create-disaster-payment-coronavirus-leave/12518580">announced</a> a A$1,500 disaster payment available to workers in Victoria who do not have sick leave and who need to self-isolate for 14 days.</p>
<h2>Lax lockdown?</h2>
<p>During July’s stage 3 lockdown, Melburnians were under the same restrictions as the original lockdown in March and April. Yet vehicle traffic was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/lockdown-2-0-traffic-worse-compared-with-april-but-less-than-pre-covid-20200801-p55hlq.html">almost 20% higher</a> than during the earlier lockdown (albeit well below normal, pre-pandemic levels).</p>
<p>Victorian government epidemiologist James McCaw <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/lockdown-2-0-traffic-worse-compared-with-april-but-less-than-pre-covid-20200801-p55hlq.html">said</a> people generally haven’t changed their behaviour as much during the second lockdown as they did the first time around.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are early signs the stage 4 lockdown is markedly reducing the number of Melburnians who are out and about. On Monday, the first day of the new strictures, pedestrian numbers in the CBD <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/lockdown-2-0-traffic-worse-compared-with-april-but-less-than-pre-covid-20200801-p55hlq.html">plummeted</a>. Typically, 1,300 people walk across Sandridge bridge during morning peak hour - on Monday it was just six.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mapping-covid-19-spread-in-melbourne-shows-link-to-job-types-and-ability-to-stay-home-143610">Mapping COVID-19 spread in Melbourne shows link to job types and ability to stay home</a>
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<p>The persistently high numbers may also be partly explained by infected people transmitting the virus to their families, partners or housemates – something that’s hard to avoid even in lockdown.</p>
<p>The government will presumably not attempt enforce mask wearing or social distancing within our own homes, yet this has profound implications for disease transmission.</p>
<p>It is helpful to consider your household as a single unit; if one person puts themself at risk, perhaps by not wearing a mask, they put their entire household at risk.</p>
<h2>Masks have slowed “sharp upward trend”</h2>
<p>While it’s frustrating that Victoria’s numbers have not trended downwards, it’s also true the state has successfully avoided the kind of exponential increase in cases seen in many other countries. An analysis <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/victorias-response-resurgence-covid-19-has-averted-9000-37000-cases-july-2020">published this week in the Medical Journal of Australia</a> estimates that Victoria’s restrictions have averted between 9,000 and 37,000 coronavirus infections.</p>
<p>Masks are a crucial part of this, and the state government is distributing <a href="http://mhdsupplychain.com.au/2020/07/21/surge-in-fask-masks-demand-before-new-covering-rules-in-vic-apply/">more than 1.37 million free reusable masks</a> to those most in need.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-200-fine-for-not-wearing-a-mask-is-fair-as-long-as-free-masks-go-to-those-in-need-142988">A $200 fine for not wearing a mask is fair, as long as free masks go to those in need</a>
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<p>It’s also possible Victoria is partly a victim of bad luck and unfortunate timing. The case clusters that spurred the second wave arose just as social distancing rules were easing after months of restrictions.</p>
<p>Regardless of how Victorians got here, it is clear what they must do next. It’s vital for people in Melbourne to diligently follow the <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-disaster-called-as-melbourne-moves-to-nightly-curfew-and-stage-4-restrictions-143804">stage 4 restrictions</a>, and that all Victorians maintain physical distancing, stay at home if unwell, get tested if they have symptoms, and self-isolate if they test positive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erin Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even though cases haven’t dropped off yet, mandatory masks have probably helped to prevent cases continuing to spiral upwards - which is a real risk with this virus.Erin Smith, Associate Professor in Disaster and Emergency Response, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438952020-08-04T04:53:18Z2020-08-04T04:53:18ZWhat Victoria’s abattoir rules mean for the supply and price of meat<p>With Victoria’s declaration of a state of disaster and imposition of Stage 4 restrictions, many Melburnians have returned to panic buying. Supermarket shelves across the city have been stripped of canned goods, fresh vegetables and meat. </p>
<p>The meat buying, at least, makes some sense. </p>
<p>After aged care homes, meat-processing facilities have been a major contributor to Victoria’s COVID-19 outbreak. Hundreds of coronavirus cases have been <a href="https://www.stockandland.com.au/story/6851265/jbs-reopens-its-doors/">linked to about a dozen sites</a>, with the biggest outbreaks at those in Melbourne’s outer western and northern surburbs. </p>
<p>There were expectations following the state government’s lockdown announcement on Sunday that these facilities might be closed completely, along with the other business restrictions announced on Monday.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-non-essential-retailers-closed-as-morrison-unveils-pandemic-leave-143835">Melbourne non-essential retailers closed, as Morrison unveils pandemic leave</a>
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<p>That didn’t happen. But the state’s <a href="https://www.aussiefarms.org.au/facilities/food/abattoirs?state=VIC">70-plus meat-processing facilities</a> will be required to reduce their production capacity by one-third. </p>
<p>They must also implement, in the words of <a href="https://www.sheepcentral.com/victorian-meat-processors-to-cut-production-under-new-covid-19-rules/">premier Daniel Andrews</a>, “some of the most stringent safety protocols that have been ever put in place in any industrial setting”, including workers dressing “as if they were a health worker – gloves and gowns, masks and shields.”</p>
<p>This is going to affect the supply of meat to Victorian supermarkets, and prices. But thankfully not for long.</p>
<h2>Why meat processors?</h2>
<p>Processing meat is the opposite of an assembly line. It’s a disassembly line, the equivalent of auto workers pulling apart cars – removing the wheels, doors, seats, engine and so on – to sell the parts. Now imagine each car is slightly different, and must be taken apart in a slightly different way, at fast pace.</p>
<p>Automating such work is difficult. It is complex and intensive manual labour. Lots of people work close together, in a hard environment, for long hours, in cold and dry spaces. These factors make it easy for COVID-19 to spread. </p>
<p>The Victorian government’s directive that meat-processing facilities reduce output by one-third is to ensure workplace changes such as gaps between shifts, more physical distancing, and more attention to measures such as wearing personal protective equipment and not sharing cutting equipment. </p>
<p>So production will go at a slower pace. Output will be lower, and the per-unit cost of packaging meat products for consumers will be higher.</p>
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<img alt="Slaughterhouse workers processing meat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351017/original/file-20200804-24-15u9o8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Slaughterhouse meat workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Synchronising the system</h2>
<p>Quality and price are key purchasing decisions for most meat shoppers, and the meat industry has been geared to providing fresh produce at lowest cost.</p>
<p>Getting your favourite beef, lamb, chicken and pork cuts to your local supermarket or neighbourhood butcher is a complex game. Meat processing and distribution centres work out how much to produce, where to deliver and when to do it with great precision, planning up to 90 days ahead. They must synchronise supplies from farmers with demand from retailers. </p>
<p>Think of the system’s smooth operation as being like keeping a roomful of clocks synchronised. </p>
<p>If one clock fails, no problem. You can fix it. But what if a handful more clocks fail before you can fix it, and then dozens more fail? In a short time there will be so many faulty clocks that coordination is compromised. Eventually you won’t even know what the right time is. </p>
<p>Reducing capacity in one or two abattoirs for a few days could be worked around with minimal effects to consumers. But there’s no quick fix to reducing capacity in all of them for six weeks. </p>
<p>Supplies for some meat products will almost certainly be lower, and prices could increase. This is most likely to occur for the most common and popular meat cuts, like T-bone steaks or chicken drumsticks. If your preference is offal or giblets, though, you may not have a problem.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disagreeability-neuroticism-and-stress-what-drives-panic-buying-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-141612">Disagreeability, neuroticism and stress: what drives panic buying during the COVID-19 pandemic</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is the good news?</h2>
<p>Yes, there is good news. </p>
<p>First, thanks to refrigerated transport, meat processors in other states can help meet lower production in Victoria. The industry has some flexibility to move from north to south, from west to east. </p>
<p>Second, supermarkets have been quick to bring restrictions back to prevent the panic buying and hoarding that make shortages even worse. Coles and Woolworths have already <a href="https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/coles-responds-to-concerns-melbourne-is-facing-a-major-meat-shortage--c-1211460">imposed two-pack limits</a> on meat packages (and other products).</p>
<p>Third, to hoard meat you need freezer capacity, and it’s quite possible those disposed to stockpiling still have frozen meat from the first COVID-19 wave. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-panic-again-heres-why-melbournes-supermarket-shortages-will-quickly-pass-142288">Don't panic (again): here's why Melbourne's supermarket shortages will quickly pass</a>
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<p>Fourth, supermarkets and hundreds of smaller operators such as butchers will be affected in different ways at different times. Finding what you want may simply require looking in more than one shop. </p>
<p>Fourth, there are options. Not just between different fresh products such as beef, chicken, pork, lamb and fish, but between preserved, frozen and canned alternatives.</p>
<p>So it might be just a bit harder to have your preferred choice of meat for dinner in the coming days. But the situation won’t be as dire as some fear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143895/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Flavio Romero Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute - ASCI.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ferry Jie receives funding from Western Australia Government, Department of Jobs, Tourism, Science and Innovation, iMOVE Australia; Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources; Australasian Centre for Rail Innovation; City of Joondalup, Meat and Livestock Australia (2017).
Ferry Jie is affiliated with Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport in Australia (CILTA) and Supply Chain and Logistics Association of Australia (SCLAA).</span></em></p>Yes, there will be temporary meat shortages in Victoria, but not for long.Flavio Macau, Senior Lecturer in Supply Chain Management and Global Logistics, Edith Cowan UniversityFerry Jie, Asssociate Professor in Supply Chain and Logistics Management, Deputy Director, Centre for Innovative Practice, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438402020-08-03T10:22:53Z2020-08-03T10:22:53ZAustralia won’t recover unless Victoria does too. The federal government must step up<p>The announcement of stage 4 restrictions in Victoria marks a new, and depressing, stage in Australia’s response to COVID-19. </p>
<p>The new measures will close non-essential retailers and most <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-child-care-shutdown-is-a-hard-blow-for-working-mothers-143837">child-care centres</a> across Melbourne, and impose stringent controls on industries such as meatworks and construction. The Victorian government estimates the measures will stop a further <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/victoria-coronavirus-cases-up-429-more-businesses-forced-to-shut/12517344">250,000 workers</a> from travelling to work.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-non-essential-retailers-closed-as-morrison-unveils-pandemic-leave-143835">Melbourne non-essential retailers closed, as Morrison unveils pandemic leave</a>
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<p>The Victorian economy will probably be <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">better off</a> with this sharper, hopefully shorter lockdown than persisting with Stage 3 restrictions for many months. </p>
<p>The federal government has taken the sensible step of announcing pandemic leave disaster payments of $1,500 for those Victorians that need to isolate for 14 days. But it will need to do more to help Victorian businesses and households make it safely to the other side.</p>
<h2>Victoria was already struggling before stage 4</h2>
<p>Even before Sunday’s announcement of Stage 4 restrictions, economic activity in Melbourne was back down to similar levels to the first shutdown. Movement around the city, as measured by the number of times people used Apple Maps to get directions, was about half its February level. </p>
<p>By comparison, in Perth (where the virus has been effectively suppressed) drivers were out and about a little more than in February. Sydney was more or less back to normal, with a slight dip at the end of July as people curtailed their movements a little. Across all three cities public transport use remains dramatically below its normal levels, with Melbourne much further away from normal than Sydney and especially Perth.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Movement in three cities.</span>
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<p>The number of jobs in Victoria was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D90A6BA872BC19D7CA25854F008214D1?opendocument">7.3% lower</a> in mid-July than in mid-March, a deeper fall than any other state. In inner Melbourne, the number of jobs was down nearly 10% from mid-March levels. Eight of the ten federal electorates hardest-hit by job losses are now in Victoria. Without JobKeeper, the picture would be much worse.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Jobs in three states.</span>
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<p>Under the new restrictions on workplaces in Melbourne, employment in construction, manufacturing and retail will plummet. These industries employ about 900,000 Victorians between them. Not all of these people will be thrown out of work, but many will. </p>
<h2>JobKeeper and JobSeeker are needed even more</h2>
<p>The federal government should reconsider <a href="https://theconversation.com/bowing-out-gracefully-how-theyll-wind-down-and-better-target-jobkeeper-143011">its plans</a> to begin winding back JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments after September. JobKeeper is set to fall from A$1,500 to A$1,200 for full-time workers, and to A$750 for part-timers. And JobSeeker falls from $1,215 to $815 a fortnight. </p>
<p>These income-support programs were absolutely necessary in March when Stage 3 restrictions were imposed. They are even more necessary now, as Stage 4 restrictions put an even tighter clamp on economic activity, stretching many businesses to breaking point and throwing more Victorians out of work. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-both-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker-143109">How to get both JobKeeper and JobSeeker</a>
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<p>The “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-both-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker-143109">tapering</a>” of these support payments clearly cannot happen from late September, as currently scheduled.</p>
<p>By the end of September Victoria will hopefully be out of Stage 4 restrictions. But at best Melbourne will be back to Stage 3, the same level of restrictions for which the federal government to introduced the JobKeeper and the JobSeeker schemes. </p>
<p>The eligibility rules for JobKeeper should also be reconsidered. </p>
<p>Some businesses whose revenue did not fall enough to qualify for JobKeeper in March will now take a bigger hit. Other companies that qualified in March but saw a rebound in June will be excluded by the current rules from receiving JobKeeper beyond September. </p>
<p>The federal government COVID-19 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/federal-government-to-create-disaster-payment-coronavirus-leave/12518580">“disaster payment” </a> should help address the crucial problem of those without paid leave entitlements being forced to choose between self-isolating and going to work to pay their bills. But the scheme is palliative rather than preventative, since it only applies in states once community transmission has ramped up to disaster levels. </p>
<h2>Two-speed economy</h2>
<p>The diverging fortunes of Victoria and the rest of Australia gives new meaning to the term “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/02_Resources_boom.pdf">two-speed economy</a>”. </p>
<p>The federal government may be reluctant to do what’s needed just for one state, given the recovery is progressing elsewhere, but that would be a mistake. Victoria accounts for one quarter of the national economy. There is no “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victoria-to-help-foot-the-bill-in-state-of-disaster-20200802-p55hrl">moral hazard</a>” here. No state is going to allow thousands of its citizens to catch a deadly virus on the expectation the federal government will turn on the fiscal taps. </p>
<p>The federal government should waste no time wrangling over who pays the costs of getting through the crisis. Trying to split the bill with Victoria will take valuable time, and only concentrate costs on the state hardest hit by the crisis.</p>
<p>Last week the federal government finalised arrangements to borrow A$15 billion through <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-just-sold-15-billion-of-31-year-bonds-but-what-actually-is-a-bond-143598">issuing 31-year bonds</a>. These bonds have a fixed interest rate of 1.94%, below the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target band. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-just-sold-15-billion-31-year-bonds-whats-a-bond-143598">We've just sold $15 billion 31-year bonds. What's a bond?</a>
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<p>That means investors buying the bonds were willing to lend money to the federal government and most likely get back less, in inflation-adjusted terms, three decades from now. And investors were queuing up to buy them. In fact the government could have sold <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/program/forthcoming-transactions/pricing-new-june-2051-treasury-bond">A$37 billion worth</a>, rather than A$15 billion.</p>
<p>The federal government should use this ample fiscal firepower to ensure Victorians get through this crisis. Australia’s economy won’t recover unless Victoria does too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute's board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Cowgill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal government must provide more support if Victorian businesses and households are to survive the state’s Stage 4 lockdown.Brendan Coates, Program Director, Household Finances, Grattan InstituteMatthew Cowgill, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438372020-08-03T09:16:51Z2020-08-03T09:16:51ZVictoria’s child-care shutdown is a hard blow for working mothers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350813/original/file-20200803-22-1jmgye9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3741&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How do you occupy a child for long enough to get any work done?</p>
<p>This will be the question confronting more than 150,000 Melbourne families for at least the next six weeks.</p>
<p>The Stage 4 restrictions announced by the Victorian government to contain the city’s COVID-19 outbreak include closing all <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/state-s-schools-childcare-centres-to-close-for-most-children-20200802-p55ht4.html">child-care centres</a> for the first time in the pandemic.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-disaster-called-as-melbourne-moves-to-nightly-curfew-and-stage-4-restrictions-143804">State of disaster called as Melbourne moves to nightly curfew and stage 4 restrictions</a>
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<p>Only services for vulnerable children and children whose parents are deemed essential workers will continue. </p>
<p>This will have a big impact on workforce participation – particularly for mothers, who take on the lion’s share of unpaid care. </p>
<h2>Child-care and workforce participation</h2>
<p>The health advice is that these closures are needed to get Victoria’s COVID-19 outbreak under control. So the focus needs to be on what governments can do to cushion the impact on parents – and to support workforce participation on the other side.</p>
<p>Child-care is critical for women’s workforce participation. Its closure will have significant economic fallout. About <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/node/53464">170,000 Melbourne children</a> aged five and under are enrolled in formal early childhood education and care services. The average child in long day care attends for more than 25 hours a week. </p>
<p>The common backup plan for parents in lieu of professional child-minding services – grandparents – is not an option for many either, given health concerns and travel restrictions. </p>
<p>Most parents with young children don’t have much “slack”. On average, they do <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/aifs-conference/fathers-and-work">more than 80 hours a week</a> of paid and unpaid work – the most of all adults.</p>
<p>It seems inevitable the only way many households will be able to manage their caring responsibilities is by reducing their paid work. This will be a financial hit not only for them but for the wider economy, further reducing spending and economic activity. </p>
<h2>Women most affected</h2>
<p>The closure of child-care centres will be especially tough on working mothers. Australian women still do the bulk of looking after children and housework. </p>
<p>A 2019 Deloitte analysis estimated the average Victorian woman <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/blog/economics-blog/2019/Value-unpaid-work-care.html">spent 13 hours more</a> on unpaid work and care a week than the average Victorian man. Men generally do more paid work, but this still doesn’t make up the full gap. </p>
<p>Deloitte’s findings are consistent with patterns Australia-wide, where the balance of paid and unpaid work in heterosexual couples is <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=GENDER_EMP">more gendered</a> than almost anywhere else in the western world.</p>
<p>During the first lockdown, the unpaid workload increased for both women and men, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/coronavirus-covid19-domestic-work-housework-gender-gap-women-men/12369708">but more for women</a>. </p>
<p>Responses to an online <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1440783320942413">Work and Care in the Time of COVID-19</a> survey between early May and June suggest women have more commonly borne the brunt of juggling work and children, including supervising online schooling. </p>
<p>These patterns indicate it will be women who are most likely to reduce their hours of paid work without school or day-care services available. This has already been <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w26947">seen overseas</a>. </p>
<p>Any hit to women’s workforce participation – particularly if it becomes entrenched – will further widen the lifetime earnings gap between men and women. On pre-pandemic <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda">working patterns</a>, the average 25-year-old woman who goes on to have at least one child could expect to earn 47% less than an average 25-year-old man who becomes a father.</p>
<h2>Policy can help on the other side</h2>
<p>The challenge for policymakers is to prevent this short-term economic pain becoming permanent.</p>
<p>The federal government has introduced <a href="https://ministers.dese.gov.au/tehan/statement-fee-relief-victorian-parents">temporary arrangements</a> to enable Victorian parents to keep their child-care place through this lockdown. Providing income support for child-care workers who may be stood down during the shutdown is also important.</p>
<p>But these policies alone will not be sufficient to support female workforce participation when child-care reopens. </p>
<p>If governments are serious about reducing the fallout, we need to talk about making it more affordable on the other side. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/permanently-raising-the-child-care-subsidy-is-an-economic-opportunity-too-good-to-miss-136856">Permanently raising the Child Care Subsidy is an economic opportunity too good to miss</a>
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<p>Child-care costs are one of the biggest barriers to female workforce participation. </p>
<p>Raising the federal government’s Child Care Subsidy would help parents, particularly women, get back to work – supporting both the short-term economic recovery and growing the economy in the longer term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria’s closure of child-care services may be necessary, but it will put pressures on parents and likely drive down women’s workforce participation.Danielle Wood, Chief executive officer, Grattan InstituteKate Griffiths, Fellow, Grattan InstituteOwain Emslie, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438082020-08-02T11:34:56Z2020-08-02T11:34:56ZView from The Hill: COVID has brought us a state in disaster and a prime minister in a mask<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350715/original/file-20200802-18-121d2zf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C894%2C892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As Melbourne moved to an extraordinary 8pm to 5am daily curfew and Stage 4 restrictions, and Victoria declared a “state of disaster”, Scott Morrison took to social media with a message for the embattled residents.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-state-of-disaster-and-what-powers-does-it-confer-143807">Explainer: what is a 'state of disaster' and what powers does it confer?</a>
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<p>“Australians all around the country are backing you in, because we all know for Australia to succeed, we need for Victoria to get through this,” he said.</p>
<p>The Victorian lockdown has not just become drastically harsher - it is now due to run through until September 13. </p>
<p>Before Sunday’s announcement, Victoria was half way through its softer lockdown. </p>
<p>But that was not going to do its job, according to Premier Daniel Andrews, who had spent day after day imploring people to stay within the rules.</p>
<p>If tougher restrictions weren’t imposed, Andrews reckoned it would take until the end of the year before Victoria would be back seeing daylight. </p>
<p>“That’s a six-month strategy that is simply not going to work,” Andrews said. “Therefore we have to do more and do more right now.”</p>
<p>Andrews had no choice. The latest Victorian tally was 671 new cases and seven deaths. There are some 760 “mystery” active cases where the sources could not be traced. </p>
<p>Goodness knows, however, what sort of shape Victoria will be in by mid September, or Australia as a whole, for that matter. </p>
<p>The Victorian economy will be prone. On Monday we will get the details of which areas of business will be cut back or shut down by the government. Many others will be knocked off their feet, temporarily or in some cases permanently, by the stronger general restrictions on activity. </p>
<p>Treasury will be once again going back to its budget figures that last week were already out of date, just a week after they were unveiled.</p>
<p>Andrews is looking for some special Commonwealth help for Victoria. Nothing specific seems on or off the table. But the strong message from the federal government is that any such assistance should be on a 50-50 basis with Victoria. </p>
<p>The tougher lockdown, particularly targeting younger people who move around a lot and may be spreading the virus without showing symptoms, will test the resilience and compliance of a stressed community. </p>
<p>It’s already testing the political restraint of some Coalition politicians. Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, while saying he wasn’t out to whack Andrews with a baseball bat, lamented that tighter restrictions hadn’t been imposed on Melbourne earlier. </p>
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<p>Morrison was taking a low public profile at the weekend, apart from social media messaging including an Instagram picture of him wearing a mask. He explained he’d “had to pop out to pick up a few things here in Sydney, so followed the NSW Premier’s advice announced earlier today (and put a mask on in the car before heading into the shops).”</p>
<p>Meanwhile on Saturday he had sent a letter to West Australian premier Mark McGowan, capitulating over the Commonwealth’s participation in the court challenge to WA’s closed border.</p>
<p>Morrison said he was pulling the government out of the High Court case, which has been brought by Clive Palmer.</p>
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<p>After concerted attacks on the WA government last week by him and senior ministers from WA, Christian Porter and Mathias Cormann, the Prime Minister presumably recognised (or was told) that regardless of whether he was on the right side of the constitution he was certainly on the wrong side of public opinion. </p>
<p>McGowan has very high ratings - with a state election coming early next year - and the hard border is popular locally.</p>
<p>Morrison reiterated that the Commonwealth intervention in the case had been consistent with convention and its responsibilities in relation to the constitution. He said the government’s actions “have not been to support any private interest of the plaintiffs”.</p>
<p>“While taking our constitutional responsibilities seriously in seeking to respect established conventions, I also accept that recent events in the eastern states, especially Victoria, are creating real concerns to residents in other states less impacted,” he wrote.</p>
<p>“I do not wish to see these concerns further exacerbated in Western Australia.</p>
<p>"Having taken into account the changed state of the pandemic that has worsened since these matters were first brought to the High Court, the high level of concern regarding public health in the Western Australian community, and our desire to work with you cooperatively on a constitutionally sustainable way forward, I consider, on balance, that we must set aside the normal convention in these circumstances and not continue the Commonwealth’s participation in this case.”</p>
<p>Morrison proposed principles “to mitigate the Commonwealth’s concerns with how border issues within our Federation are managed”. </p>
<p>He said the federal government was not asking WA to change its present border setting – as things stood, that would give rise to “significant and unnecessary public concern”.</p>
<p>His principles proposed states should not act arbitrarily in restricting inter-state movement of Australian residents; any restriction should be in consultation with the Commonwealth on the basis of transparent advice about the need for it; affected states should be consulted, and there should be criteria and processes for regular assessment.</p>
<p>“I also want to stress the advice I receive from the Chief Medical Officer, that has also been regularly conveyed to National Cabinet, that border arrangements are no substitute for strong public health response capability and maintenance of social distancing principles,” Morrison wrote.</p>
<p>“If an outbreak were to occur in Western Australia, as has occurred in other states, it will be strength of your State’s testing, tracing and outbreak containment capabilities that will determine your success or otherwise.” </p>
<p>The tone of the letter indicated this had been a retreat made through gritted teeth behind a thin mask of congeniality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victoria has been declared a ‘state of disaster’.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438072020-08-02T08:47:15Z2020-08-02T08:47:15ZExplainer: what is a ‘state of disaster’ and what powers does it confer?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350708/original/file-20200802-16-1ywtcqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>A “state of disaster” has been declared for the whole of Victoria from 6pm, Sunday August 2, for a month. How is this different from the existing “state of emergency” and what powers does it give the Andrews government?</p>
<h2>What is the difference between a state of emergency and a state of disaster?</h2>
<p>Victoria has been in a state of emergency since <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-16/victoria-coronavirus-state-of-emergency-powers-explained/12059194">March 16 2020</a>. This is a declaration that is made under the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/phawa2008222/s198.html">Public Health and Wellbeing Act 2008</a>, where there is a serious risk to public health. </p>
<p>The Act confers wide-ranging powers on the Chief Health Officer. These include the power to quarantine people, prohibit mass gatherings and impose other restrictions on the movement of people. The Act also confers a <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/phawa2008222/s200.html">broad power</a> to give any other direction that is reasonably necessary to protect public health.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-disaster-called-as-melbourne-moves-to-nightly-curfew-and-stage-4-restrictions-143804">State of disaster called as Melbourne moves to nightly curfew and stage 4 restrictions</a>
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<p>A state of disaster addresses matters beyond public health issues. It is intended to deal with emergencies such as natural disasters, explosions, terrorism or sieges, but it can also be used to deal with “a plague or an epidemic”. It was used in Victoria in <a href="https://www.emv.vic.gov.au/news/state-of-disaster-declared-in-victoria">January 2020</a> during the bushfires, but the declaration was limited to specific areas that were in danger from the spread of bushfires. It was initially for a period of 7 days, which was later <a href="https://emergency.vic.gov.au/news-and-media/state-of-disaster-extended-for-48-hours">extended</a> for a short period. </p>
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<p>This time, however, the state of disaster has been declared for the entire state of Victoria, and for the maximum period of a month. A further declaration can be made to continue the state of disaster if the emergency continues after the month ends.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ema1986190/s23.html">Emergency Management Act 1986</a> allows the premier of Victoria to make such a declaration after considering the advice of the minister for police and emergency services and the emergency management commissioner.</p>
<p>The premier has to be satisfied there is an emergency that “constitutes a significant and widespread danger to life or property in Victoria”. </p>
<h2>What powers does a state of disaster confer?</h2>
<p>The declaration of a state of disaster gives the police minister responsibility for directing and co-ordinating the activities of all government agencies. The minister may also allocate government resources as necessary to respond to the disaster. </p>
<p>The minister can direct government agencies to act or refrain from acting in particular ways to deal with the disaster. Such a direction prevails over anything to the contrary in any state law. </p>
<p>One of the most extreme powers the minister has is to override legislation. For centuries, it has been accepted in Australia and the United Kingdom that governments do not have executive powers to suspend or dispense with the application of the law set out in statutes. </p>
<p>In this case, however, it is a <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ema1986190/s24.html">statute</a> that is giving the minister, during a state of disaster, the power to declare that the operation of the whole or any part of an Act or legislative instrument is suspended.</p>
<p>Reassuringly, there are strict limits placed on this power. The minister can only exercise it if they believe compliance by a government agency with the provisions of an Act or instrument that prescribes the agency’s duties or responsibilities, would inhibit its response to the disaster. </p>
<p>Other relevant powers conferred on the minister include the power to control movement within, and entry into or departure from, the disaster area (which is the whole of the state) or any part of it.</p>
<h2>What other effect does declaring a state of disaster have?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html">royal commission into the deadly 2009 Victorian bushfires</a> was critical of the failure to declare a state of disaster. It noted that beyond the coercive powers granted by such a declaration, it “would provide <a href="http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report/Volume-2/Chapters/Emergency-and-Incident-Management.html">symbolic recognition of the gravity of a situation</a>”, which might have sharpened the focus of emergency services. It would also have put political leaders firmly in charge of the emergency, reassuring the public and ensuring high-level government attention. </p>
<p>In Victoria at present, there is no doubt the emergency services are focused and there is high-level government attention.</p>
<p>But the declaration of a state of disaster may be effective in reinforcing to the public the absolute necessity of complying with government instructions in the midst of this pandemic. The symbolism of the action may therefore be as important as the powers conferred.</p>
<h2>How does a ‘state of emergency’ fit with a ‘state of disaster’?</h2>
<p><a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/phawa2008222/">Section 198 of the Public Health and Wellbeing Act</a> provides that a declaration of a state of emergency does not derogate from or limit any provisions in relation to the declaration of an emergency under any other Act. </p>
<p>It appears there is an intention that the powers conferred on people in relation to both a state of emergency and state of disaster should be exercised in a co-operative and co-ordinated manner to ensure a whole of government response to the emergency.</p>
<p>It is about marshalling all the government’s firepower to defeat the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and sometimes does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>A state of disaster confers more power on the minister for police and emergency services to ensure compliance with the laws put in place to defeat the pandemic. It plays a powerful symbolic role, too.Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1438042020-08-02T06:34:08Z2020-08-02T06:34:08ZState of disaster called as Melbourne moves to nightly curfew and stage 4 restrictions<p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has announced that metropolitan Melbourne will move to “stage 4” restrictions from 6pm Sunday, as new cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. The state recorded another 671 cases and 7 deaths on Sunday.</p>
<p>Andrews has declared a state of disaster from 6pm on Sunday, imposing a nightly curfew on Melbourne and giving the government and police extra powers to enforce the new restrictions. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, regional Victoria (outside of Melbourne) will move to stage 3 restrictions from midnight on Wednesday. Mitchell Shire will <a href="https://twitter.com/MitchellShire/status/1289798031911485440">remain at stage 3</a>.</p>
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<h2>What are the new restrictions?</h2>
<p>Under the new stage 4 restrictions, only one person in each household can do shopping once a day. Exercise can be undertaken once a day for one hour, and no more than two people can exercise together. Residents can’t travel more than five kilometres from their home for shopping or exercise.</p>
<p>During the curfew, the only permitted reasons for being outside will be to receive or give care, or to go to or from work. A fine of A$1,652 will apply for anyone breaching these restrictions, and police will have the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-02/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid19-latest-victoria/12515596">power</a> to arrest those breaking the curfew without good reason.</p>
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<p>Andrews said there are “common sense” exemptions. People can travel more than 5km to see their intimate partner and for care giving.</p>
<p>All schools across the state will move to remote learning from Wednesday, with some exceptions, such as students with special needs and children of essential workers.</p>
<p>On Monday, Andrews will outline further restrictions on workplaces. He flagged three categories: workplaces such as supermarkets, grocers and bakeries will remain open; some workplaces will stay open but with restrictions; and others will shut down or work exclusively from home if possible.</p>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Andrews said the current restrictions were “not working fast enough”, and that continuing with the current settings would mean it takes until the end of the year to drive daily numbers down to a point at which restrictions could be eased.</p>
<p>This comes as no surprise to those of us working in public health. Several <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/system/files/2020-07/Blakely%20mja20.01292%20-%2017%20July%202020.pdf">epidemiologists</a> have argued that <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/work-and-study-metropolitan-melbourne-and-mitchell-shire-covid-19">stage 3 restrictions</a> were not severe enough. For example, it seemed crazy when stage 3 restrictions were imposed in early July that people were told they could travel for work or study if unable to do it from home. This left the door open for too many people to travel while potentially infected.</p>
<p>Andrews said that there are currently 760 “mystery” cases – that is, cases of community transmission for which the source of infection is unknown. This is tantamount to saying the disease is out of control. </p>
<p>A range of exacerbating factors have brought us to this point. They include:</p>
<p><strong>Aged-care homes</strong></p>
<p>Much of the current outbreak is occurring in aged-care homes across Victoria. The handling of the situation in aged-care homes has been abysmal. The deployment of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ausmat-teams-start-work-in-aged-care-homes-today-but-what-does-this-sas-of-the-medical-world-actually-do-143605">AUSMAT</a> teams to aged-care homes is very welcome, but has come far too late. Aged-care residents with any symptoms should be immediately transferred to a hospital or clinic, although admittedly this is is not easy for some patients.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/ausmat-teams-start-work-in-aged-care-homes-today-but-what-does-this-sas-of-the-medical-world-actually-do-143605">AUSMAT teams start work in aged care homes today. But what does this 'SAS of the medical world' actually do?</a>
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<p>The current bickering between the Victorian and federal governments about who is to blame for the high number of infections and deaths in aged-care homes is counterproductive. The damage has been done — let’s fix it.</p>
<p><strong>Failures to self-isolate</strong></p>
<p>One of the main reasons why the current restrictions have not worked is that many people who have tested positive have not followed quarantine instructions and were not <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/one-in-four-victorians-who-tested-positive-were-not-home-when-doorknocked/news-story/75ca4ad31b6c2657d117c9e6d870d3df">home</a> when they should have been. Some of these might have been absent for a genuine reason, but many were likely <a href="https://theconversation.com/far-too-many-victorians-are-going-to-work-while-sick-far-too-many-have-no-choice-143600">low-paid casual workers</a> who either couldn’t afford not to work, people who did not understand what they were supposed to do, or those who simply did not care. On top of this, there has been <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/victorian-nursing-homes-remain-under-siege-from-coronavirus/news-story/3899fae1e55d0d8b1735f21ff4ea704c">confusion</a> in the Victorian government messaging about what to do while waiting for test results. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/far-too-many-victorians-are-going-to-work-while-sick-far-too-many-have-no-choice-143600">'Far too many' Victorians are going to work while sick. Far too many have no choice</a>
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<p><strong>Is the virus more contagious?</strong></p>
<p>The current strain of SARS-CoV-2 circulating around the world is <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-infectious-strain-covid-dominates-global.html">more contagious</a> than the original form. But that in itself cannot explain why only Victoria is grappling with disaster, and not the whole of Australia. However, the fact the virus is more contagious does mean it can take better advantage of the lapses in Victoria. </p>
<h2>Will stage 4 restrictions work?</h2>
<p>They should do — they include many of the rules we have been calling for, such as a stricter definition of essential workers and workplaces. But there are yet more potentially useful measures, which are not necessarily very expensive. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-is-undeniably-in-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-its-time-to-plan-for-another-statewide-lockdown-142047">previous article</a> I said that if necessary, Australian Defence Force (ADF) personnel could be used to deliver food and essential supplies to those at high risk, and help with logistics. They are trained in disaster relief, supply chain management and logistics. ADF staff are currently door-knocking people who have tested positive to check they are self-isolating. While there, why can’t they deliver 14 days’ supply of food and essential items to help people stay at home? They could also deliver supplies to vulnerable people stuck at home. </p>
<p>The ADF could also work with the major supermarket chains to ensure that they are well-stocked, and therefore help reduce the <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/breaking-news/panicked-melbourne-shoppers-flock-to-supermarkets-ahead-of-tougher-restrictions/news-story/9b79e82d29c82352f1f19717cf482c10">panic buying</a> currently happening in Melbourne.</p>
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<p>Finally, better messaging is required. The Victorian government is not getting through to enough people about why the restrictions are essential. For example, compared with other state health departments, Victoria’s <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus">COVID-19</a> page is very clinically oriented, and not particularly user-friendly.</p>
<h2>How will we know the new restrictions are working?</h2>
<p>There are several indicators that help us assess what is happening. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-coronavirus-and-predict-the-pandemics-spread-130777">effective reproduction number</a>, or Reff, is the average number of people each infected person themselves infect. It needs to be below one for the outbreak to die out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-coronavirus-and-predict-the-pandemics-spread-130777">R0: How scientists quantify the intensity of an outbreak like coronavirus and predict the pandemic's spread</a>
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<p>However, at this stage of the outbreak, it can only be estimated by modelling, and is more of a long-term indicator. An alternative is the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-data-australia-growth-factor-covid-19/12132478?nw=0">growth factor</a>”. This is simply the number of cases today, divided by the number yesterday. We would like to see the growth factor less than one, and unlike Reff, it is a short-term indicator.</p>
<p>Because daily cases can fluctuate for many reasons, we prefer to look at a moving average that smoothes out daily numbers and helps spot trends. With a 5-day median incubation period, a 5-day moving average should show up whether or not the new restrictions have worked.</p>
<p>Finally, we must see community transmission of unknown origin go down. </p>
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<p><em>This article is supported by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/partners/judith-neilson-institute">Judith Neilson Institute for Journalism and Ideas</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has declared a state of disaster and an 8pm-5am curfew for Melbourne for the next six weeks. Meanwhile, the rest of the state moves to stage 3 restrictions.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.