tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/victorian-politics-4957/articlesVictorian politics – The Conversation2024-03-28T01:33:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2266222024-03-28T01:33:56Z2024-03-28T01:33:56ZFederal Essential poll the worst for Labor this term; SA Labor gains Dunstan at byelection<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–47 Labor lead last fortnight. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Excluding undecided, this poll would be 53–47 to the Coalition. It is easily the worst poll of this term for Labor. Weak flows to Labor on respondent allocated preferences partly explain this result, with analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1772391006018892059">Kevin Bonham’s estimate</a> using 2022 election preference flows at about a 50.5–49.5 Coalition lead.</p>
<p>Essential’s poll was probably too favourable for the Coalition this week, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Newspoll gave Labor</a> its second worst result this term: a 51–49 lead. In this week’s four federal polls, only Resolve had an improvement for Labor since the last time they did a poll.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/26-march-2024">asked to give a rating</a> of 0 to 10 for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, then ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 35–32 negative (35–33 in February), while Dutton was at 34–31 negative (33–32 previously).</p>
<p>On addressing climate change, 38% (up two since October) thought Australia was doing enough, 35% (down three) said we are not doing enough and 18% (up one) that we are doing too much. During Coalition governments, not doing enough had a large lead.</p>
<p>Among those who have social media, 29% thought it had a negative impact on their lives and 20% a positive impact. By 45–23, respondents supported a ban on TikTok in Australia. On regulation of social media companies, 57% thought they should be regulated more, 34% the current regulation is about right and 9% wanted them regulated less.</p>
<h2>Resolve poll: Labor gains after preferences, but Albanese slides</h2>
<p>In a federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-personal-rating-slips-as-frustration-with-major-parties-grows-20240325-p5fexm.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted March 21–24 from a sample of 1,610, the Coalition had 35% of the primary vote (down two since February), Labor 32% (down two), the Greens 13% (up two), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 2% (up one), independents 11% (up two) and others 2% (down two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows would give Labor about a 53.5–46.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since February. Resolve has been easily the pollster most favourable to Labor.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down five points to -11, with 49% giving him a poor rating and 38% a good one. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -9. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40–30 (39–32 in February).</p>
<p>The Liberals led Labor on <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">economic management</a> by 37–25 (38–27 in February). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 28–22 (30–26 in February).</p>
<p>In a question on <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-ute-tax-thrown-into-reverse-as-voters-lukewarm-on-new-emission-rules-20240325-p5ff66.html">efficiency standards for vehicles</a>, we are not told how the new vehicle efficiency standard is defined for poll respondents. This means we don’t know what the 41–22 opposed to this standard were asked.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional Newspoll question</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-voting-intention-support-for-the-alp-l-np-coalition-is-even-in-late-march-alp-50-cf-l-np-50">Morgan poll</a>, conducted March 18–24 from a sample of 1,633, had a 50–50 tie, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31.5% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down one), 7.5% independents (down 1.5) and 4.5% others (steady).</p>
<p>As with Essential, respondent allocated preferences were weak for Labor in Morgan. An estimate based on 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>I covered the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">previous Newspoll on Monday</a>. In an <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-bare-majority-of-voters-favour-fixed-fouryear-federal-parliamentary-terms/news-story/a8cc9bd94ef8af46debbce0510cc89a2">additional question</a>, 51% were in favour of changing the term of the federal house of representatives from the current three-year term to a four-year fixed term, while 37% were against.</p>
<p>Changing the terms of the house would require a referendum, and support usually slumps as a referendum approaches. A bare majority in favour currently is not a good position for referendum success.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan at SA byelection and Tasmania</h2>
<p>A byelection occurred last Saturday in former South Australian Liberal premier’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">seat of Dunstan</a>, which he won by a narrow 50.5–49.5 margin at the 2022 election. Labor gained it by 50.8–49.2, a 1.4% swing to Labor. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 43.5% Liberals (down 3.2%), 32.1% Labor (down 3.0%), 19.1% Greens (up 5.5%) and 3.2% Animal Justice (new). Counting of <a href="https://result.ecsa.sa.gov.au/">election day polling booths</a> on Saturday night had given Labor a 54.0–46.0 lead, but declaration votes counted after election day gave the Liberals a 54.0–46.0 lead. Labor won because there were more votes cast on election day.</p>
<p>In Tasmania, the Hare-Clark distribution of preferences won’t start until after the deadline for receipt of postals next Tuesday. I expect this to be completed by the end of next week. Then we will know the identity of the 35 Tasmanian lower house members. I covered how the Hare-Clark system works in the article on last Saturday’s election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor well down but still leads</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/slip-in-labor-support-pushes-pesutto-s-team-ahead-for-first-time-in-years-20240327-p5ffl9.html?btis=">Victorian state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal February and March Resolve polls from a sample of 1,107, gave the Coalition 35% of the primary vote (up four since December), Labor 33% (down four), the Greens 13% (up two), independents 12% (down two) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>No two party estimate was provided by Resolve, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1773104858314240045">analyst Kevin Bonham estimated</a> 53–47 to Labor using 2022 election preference flows, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">since December</a>. No mention is made of preferences in The Age’s article.</p>
<p>In June 2023, the Coalition’s primary vote was 26% with Labor on 41% in this poll, so the Coalition has recovered much ground. This Resolve poll is similar to a mid-March <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-drops-to-a-51-49-lead-in-newspoll-labor-chooses-to-concede-tasmanian-election-226463">Redbridge poll</a> that gave Labor a 54–46 lead.</p>
<p>Labor premier Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by 34–25 as preferred premier (34–22 in December). By 44–14, respondents thought Victoria’s outlook would get worse in the next 12 months, rather than improve. By 34–19, the said their personal situation would get worse rather than better.</p>
<p>“Voters overwhelmingly blamed the state government over their federal counterparts and private electricity providers” for the February electricity blackouts, and more than 75% favoured spending money to bury power lines.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Coalition lead Labor 53–47, excluding undecided, in a federal Essential poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2264632024-03-24T22:31:34Z2024-03-24T22:31:34ZLabor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election<p>A <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-heading-toward-minority-government-at-next-election/news-story/b9f5937dd4184f3c6650db668cde552a">national Newspoll</a>, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Labor’s worst Newspoll this term occurred in late November, when it was tied with the Coalition at 50–50. In the next three Newspolls, conducted from December to February, Labor led by 52–48, but it has now slid to its second worst Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% dissatisfied (steady) and 44% satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -7, up one point. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–34 (47–35 four weeks ago).</p>
<p>This graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the beginning of this term shows there hasn’t been a recovery since the October Voice referendum. Prior to this referendum, Albanese’s ratings were about net zero, but since then his ratings have been well below zero.</p>
<p>I believe inflation and the cost of living are still negatives for Labor. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9440-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-march-19">weekly consumer confidence</a> measure has fallen back recently, and has spent a record 59 successive weeks below 85. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">March Freshwater poll</a>, cost of living was rated important by 72%, up three since February.</p>
<h2>Labor won’t contest federal Cook byelection</h2>
<p>Nominations were declared last Friday for an April 13 federal byelection in former Liberal PM Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/cook-by-election-2024">seat of Cook</a>. Morrison won Cook by a 62.4–37.6 margin against Labor at the 2022 election. Labor won’t contest the byelection, with the Greens and an independent likely to be the Liberals’ only competition.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian election: Labor unnecessarily concedes</h2>
<p>The most likely outcome of Saturday’s Tasmanian state election is for the Liberals to win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents two. The Liberals would be three short of the 18 needed for a majority. Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/tasmania-embraces-chaos-2024-election.html">Kevin Bonham has more</a> on the count.</p>
<p>These results won’t be confirmed until the Hare-Clark preference distributions take place after the deadline for receipt of postals passes on April 2.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<p>If the most likely outcome occurred, the JLN would have the balance of power between the Liberals and a Labor and Green bloc. If Labor or the Greens won one more seat, Labor, the Greens and the two independents could form a government without needing the JLN.</p>
<p>However, all this may be moot because <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422">Labor has conceded</a>. It appears Labor won’t form a government that includes the Greens. Labor has been out of power in Tasmania since the 2014 state election.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system, not a single-member system where majorities for one party are much easier to obtain. If Labor won’t cooperate with the Greens to form government, the next Tasmanian Labor government is not likely to form anytime soon.</p>
<h2>Redbridge Victorian poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>The Herald Sun on Monday reported that a <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/coalition-records-best-primary-vote-result-since-june-2021-poll/news-story/a8656e6e9eafd8960765483a9ffb51e8">Victorian Redbridge poll</a>, conducted March 14–20 from a sample of 1,559, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll in December</a>. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down three) and 16% for all Others (up two). </p>
<p>The Herald Sun’s report says this is the first time the Coalition has had a primary vote lead over Labor in Victoria since June 2021. This may apply to Redbridge, but a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victorian Morgan poll</a> that was conducted in July 2023 after the Commonwealth Games were axed had the Coalition ahead on primary votes, and Labor’s two party lead at 53–47.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation and the cost of living continue to eat away at Labor’s polling advantage.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202862024-01-15T02:13:08Z2024-01-15T02:13:08ZFreshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus<p>A national <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/shock-poll-we-dont-trust-albo-to-help-us-with-costs-of-living/news-story/e8b7e7b39bedcd2e4c8d14746d6c0a50">Freshwater poll</a> for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404">Freshwater poll for The Financial Review</a> in mid-December.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/15/freshwater-strategy-50-50-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> reported that primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady since December), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted January 10–11 from a sample of 1,007.</p>
<p>Freshwater has had better results for the Coalition than other polls, so Labor would probably have led if there was a Newspoll.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton by 47–38 as preferred PM (43–39 in December). On Labor’s target to achieve 82% renewables by 2030, 51% said it would mean higher energy costs while 16% thought their bills would be reduced. On the cost of living, 81% said Labor had not done enough and 68% said they would not do enough in the next six months.</p>
<h2>Morgan polls, Resolve likeability and Newspoll aggregate data</h2>
<p>In my last polls article I reported that Labor led by 51–49 in the Morgan poll conducted December 4–10. In the Morgan poll <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9418-federal-voting-intention-december-17-2023">conducted December 11–17</a> there was a 50–50 tie. In <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9419-federal-voting-intention-january-8-2024">the poll conducted</a> January 2–7 from a sample of 1,716, the Coalition led by 51–49. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one since mid-December), 29% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>Nine newspapers released <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wong-tops-list-of-popular-politicians-and-a-former-hero-now-comes-last-20231227-p5ett8.html">likeability ratings for various politicians</a> from the early December federal Resolve poll on December 28. The most popular politicians were Foreign Minister Penny Wong (net +14 likeability), Tasmanian independent senator Jacqui Lambie (net +10), Nationals senator Jacinta Price (net +6), ACT independent senator David Pocock (net +5) and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek (net +2).</p>
<p>The most unpopular politicians were former PM Scott Morrison (net -35), ex-Greens senator Lidia Thorpe (net -29), former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (net -27) and Pauline Hanson (net -25).</p>
<p>Albanese had a net -3 likeability, much better than his <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">net approval</a> of -11 in the same poll, while Dutton’s net likeability was -12 (-8 net approval). Greens leader Adam Bandt was at -10 net likeability while Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at net zero.</p>
<p>Newspoll aggregate data for its three federal polls conducted from early November to mid-December was released on December 27. The overall sample was 3,655. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">previous aggregate data</a>, from Newspolls conducted before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. In this release, Labor’s overall lead was down to 52–48.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/">Poll Bludger</a> said Labor’s lead or deficit in the various states was close to the margins at the 2022 federal election. Labor led by 51–49 in New South Wales, 55–45 in Victoria, 54–46 in Western Australia and 55–45 in South Australia. Queensland was the only state with a Coalition lead, by 54–46.</p>
<h2>Trump set for big win in Iowa Republican caucus</h2>
<p>The Iowa Republican caucus is the first <a href="https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/events.phtml?s=c&f=m">presidential nominating contest</a> of 2024, and it will occur Tuesday AEDT. In the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate of Iowa polls, Donald Trump has 51.3%, Nikki Haley 17.3% and Ron DeSantis 16.1%. The next contest is the New Hampshire primary on January 23, where Trump is <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">being challenged</a> by Haley.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-elections-2024-a-biden-vs-trump-rematch-is-very-likely-with-trump-leading-biden-219093">US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden</a>
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<p>I covered the Taiwan presidential election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/13/taiwan-presidential-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday, in which the centre-left and pro-independence candidate won with 40.1% of the vote (first past the post was used). Three US and UK byelections that are to be held from February 13–15 were also covered.</p>
<h2>Queensland UComms poll: 51–49 to LNP</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October. A <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/ucomms-poll-steven-miless-ascension-makes-little-difference-to-labor-fortunes/news-story/13ff4bb2973e0ac46e941cf182f754f6">UComms poll</a> for The Courier Mail, conducted December 21–22 from a sample of 1,911, gave the Liberal National Party a 51–49 lead, from primary votes of 36.2% LNP and 34.4% Labor, with no other parties’ votes released. LNP leader David Crisafulli led new Labor premier Steven Miles by 52.2–47.8 as preferred premier.</p>
<p>An October <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">YouGov Queensland poll</a> gave the LNP a 52–48 lead, and a September to December <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">Resolve poll</a> implied a 50–50 tie, but Resolve has been much better for Labor federally than other polls.</p>
<h2>Victorian Redbridge poll: Labor has large lead</h2>
<p>A Victorian state <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Redbridge-Vic-public-opinion-and-vote-intention-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a>, conducted December 2–12 from a sample of 2,026, gave Labor a 55.9–44.1 lead, a 0.6-point gain for the Coalition since a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Vic-votes-survey-Sept-2023.pdf">September Redbridge poll</a>. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 36% Coalition (up two), 13% Greens (steady) and 14% for all Others (down two).</p>
<p>Voters were asked their ratings of political leaders on a five-point scale, with 3 being neither approve nor disapprove. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -6, Liberal leader John Pesutto at net -13, Nationals leader Peter Walsh at net -15 and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at net -21.</p>
<p>On the main impact of protests over the Israel-Gaza war, 30% thought they had threatened the safety of Jewish and Palestinian Australians, 21% raised awareness of the conflict and 19% pressured the Australian government to call for an end.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian YouGov poll: Lambie Network has 20%</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">Tasmanian state YouGov poll</a>, conducted December 21 to January 4 from a sample of 850, gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two party preferred is not applicable.</p>
<p>If this were the election result, the JLN would hold the balance of power. By 53–26, voters thought it was time to give someone else a go over the Liberals deserving to be re-elected. A November <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">EMRS Tasmanian poll</a> had 39% Liberals, 29% Labor, 12% Greens and 19% for all Others with no JLN option.</p>
<h2>Lawler replaces Fyles as NT chief minister</h2>
<p>Eva Lawler <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-20/eva-lawler-next-northern-territory-chief-minister/103252794">replaced Natasha Fyles</a> as Labor’s Northern Territory chief minister on December 21. Fyles had resigned two days prior owing to conflict of interest allegations, and Lawler was unanimously elected by Labor MPs. Fyles will continue as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natasha_Fyles">Member for Nightcliff</a>, so there won’t be a byelection.</p>
<p>This is the second change in NT chief minister this term after Fyles replaced Michael Gunner in May 2022. The next NT election is in August, and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">November Redbridge poll</a> had Labor well behind the opposition Country Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220286/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The summer break hasn’t changed the Freshwater polling figures for the two major parties federally. Overseas, the former US President is in a strong position ahead of the Iowa caucus.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194042023-12-18T03:53:23Z2023-12-18T03:53:23ZLabor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea">Newspoll</a>, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.</p>
<p>The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.</p>
<p>In my coverage of the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">Newspoll</a>, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12">consumer confidence index</a> was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll tied at 50–50</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/17/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.</p>
<p>On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.</p>
<h2>YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48095-latest-yougov-poll-labors-primary-vote-is-the-lowest-since-1901">YouGov national poll</a>, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/08/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1901_Australian_federal_election">1901</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>Voters were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-december-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).</p>
<p>Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.</p>
<p>Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.</p>
<p>Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.</p>
<p>On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.</p>
<h2>Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a> conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">previous Redbridge poll</a> in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November</a>). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).</p>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-december-2023">Morgan poll</a>, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">federal Resolve poll</a> two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-migration-intake-cut-as-albanese-pledges-return-to-sustainable-levels-20231207-p5epxl.html">told net migration</a> to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.</p>
<p>On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-allan-dips-but-labor-holds-strong-lead-over-coalition-20231208-p5eq38.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1733264329775186073">Kevin Bonham estimated</a> a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.</p>
<h2>Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns</h2>
<p>On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/annastacia-palaszczuk-resigning-as-queensland-premier/103211112">announced she would resign</a> as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/inal">Inala</a>, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020. </p>
<p>Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/labor-caucus-endorses-steven-miles-as-queensland-premier/103227896">elected unopposed</a> by Labor MPs.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">wrote two weeks ago</a> that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.</p>
<h2>WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead</h2>
<p>The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/wa-state-round-up-redbridge-poll-and-preselections-a-z/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/weekend-miscellany-redbridge-wa-polling-trusted-politicians-senate-vacancies-and-more-open-thread/">federal WA Redbridge poll</a> gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling suggests Labor’s position might be improving slightly, perhaps due to increased optimism about the state of the economy.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2187082023-11-29T03:56:51Z2023-11-29T03:56:51ZExtra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/28/jscem-post-election-report-territory-senators-expansion-of-parliament-and-more/">Poll Bludger has summarised</a> the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.</p>
<p>In the current 76-member <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Senate">Senate</a>, every state has 12 senators, with half elected at a normal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate. In a special double dissolution election, all senators are up for election. The ACT and NT have two senators each, with all their senators up at every House election.</p>
<p>Elections use proportional representation with preferences. At a half-Senate election, the quota for election is one-seventh of the vote or 14.3% in a state. In the ACT and NT, the quota is one-third or 33.3%.</p>
<p>The Australian Constitution requires all states to have the same number of senators, so Tasmania is greatly overrepresented. Analyst Kevin Bonham <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-spurious-linking-of-one-vote-one.html">wrote in July 2022</a> that Tasmania has 21 senators per million people while New South Wales has only 1.5 senators per million people.</p>
<p>Australia overall has three senators per million people, the NT eight and the ACT 4.4. So both territories are already overrepresented in the Senate. Doubling the number of ACT and NT senators would increase the NT’s senators per million people to 16 and the ACT’s to 8.8.</p>
<p>Proponents of more territory senators compare territory representation to Tasmania. But doubling the number of territory senators will increase Senate “malapportionment” – this term is used to describe situations where unequal numbers of people elect parliamentarians.</p>
<p>JSCEM did not recommend staggered terms, so all four NT and ACT senators would be up for election at every House election. The quota for election would drop from one-third to one-fifth or 20%.</p>
<p>For the left to get a 2–0 split in the ACT, they currently need about a 67–33 winning margin over the right. When David Pocock and Labor’s Katy Gallagher won the two ACT senators in 2022, it was the first time the ACT had not split 1–1 between the major parties.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/act-senate-result-pocock-defeats-liberals-in-first-time-liberals-have-not-won-one-act-senate-seat-184738">ACT Senate result: Pocock defeats Liberals in first time Liberals have not won one ACT Senate seat</a>
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<p>With four senators, a 60–40 left win would be enough for the left to take three of these four. Bonham said that <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/11/jscems-strange-case-for-extra-territory.html">every federal election since 2007</a> would have given the left a 3–1 split of ACT senators. So the left would benefit from this increased malapportionment.</p>
<p>The four senators from the NT would be expected to split 2–2 between the left and right.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: just a one-point lead for Labor</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted November 22–26 from a sample of 1,151, gave Labor a 48–47 lead including undecided (49–47 last fortnight). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>If 2022 election preference flows were used, Labor would be further ahead. But respondent preferences from Essential have been weaker for Labor in the last few months than at the 2022 election.</p>
<p>By 47–42, <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/28-november-2023">voters disapproved</a> of Anthony Albanese’s performance, a reversal of a 46–43 approval in October. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -3. This is the first time in Essential Albanese’s net approval has been negative since he became PM and also the first time he has trailed Dutton on net approval.</p>
<p>The Coalition led Labor by 33–25 on managing the economy and 28–25 on reducing cost of living pressures. Labor led the Coalition by 37–19 on supporting higher wages. Over 65% thought the government’s performance on cost of living and housing affordability was either below average or poor.</p>
<p>Respondents were read a detailed question on the stage three tax cuts that said those earning $200,000 would receive over a $9,000 tax reduction a year, while those earning $60,000 would only receive a $375 reduction.</p>
<p>On these tax changes, 41% said they should be revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes, 22% said they should go ahead for those earning under $200,000 but be deferred for those earning over $200,000 until conditions improve, 20% said they should go ahead as planned in July 2024 and 16% said they should not go ahead at all.</p>
<p>The problem with this detailed question is that the vast majority of voters would be unfamiliar with the detail of the stage three tax cuts, and could be persuaded by a broken promises campaign from the Coalition if Labor dumped or revised these cuts.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional Newspoll question</h2>
<p>In the best poll news for Labor since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">early November Resolve poll</a>, a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9406-federal-voting-intention-november-26-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 20–26 from a sample of 1,379, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a three-point gain for Labor since last week. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down 2.5), 32% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down 1.5), 9% independents (up two) and 5.5% others (down 0.5).</p>
<p>In an additional question from this <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> that had a 50–50 tie, 50% said they and their family <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-50pc-of-australians-feel-they-are-worse-off-under-labor/news-story/35d940b3f463b0b0247ec272ff6d8041#:%7E:text=An%20exclusive%20Newspoll%20conducted%20for,of%20rents%20and%20mortgage%20repayments.">were worse off than two years ago</a>, 16% better off and 34% about the same.</p>
<h2>Victorian Mulgrave byelection final results</h2>
<p>A Victorian state byelection occurred in Mulgrave on November 18. This seat was previously held by former Labor premier Daniel Andrews. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/results">Primary votes were</a> 40.2% Labor (down 10.8% since the 2022 election), 21.7% Liberals (up 4.5%), 18.8% for right-wing independent Ian Cook (up 0.8%), 6.0% Greens (up 0.9%), 3.6% Victorian Socialists (new), 3.1% Family First (up 1.1%) and 2.9% Libertarian (new).</p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/commentary">details of the preference flow</a>. Although Cook was 2.9% behind the Liberals on primary votes, preference flows from the Libertarians and Family First put Cook 0.4% behind the Liberals, and he surpassed the Liberals on preference leakage from the Socialists and Greens to finish 0.4% ahead of them at the point where one was excluded.</p>
<p>Labor then defeated Cook after preferences by 56.5–43.5, a 4.3% swing to Cook since the 2022 election. The electoral commission also provided a two party Labor vs Liberal measure, which showed that if the Liberals had made the final two, Labor would have won by 54.7–45.3, a 5.5% swing to the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A proposed Senate election reform would be little to fix the unequal representation of the states and territories in the upper house - in fact, it would make it worse.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176672023-11-19T05:35:07Z2023-11-19T05:35:07ZFederal Labor barely ahead in latest polls; Victorian Labor takes a hit but holds Mulgrave at byelection<p>There have been three federal polls since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">October 13 article</a> on the federal Resolve poll that still had Labor far ahead. These polls show a tie in Morgan and two two-point Labor leads in YouGov and Essential. There has been a clear trend to the Coalition in polls conducted since the October 14 Voice referendum.</p>
<p>YouGov hasn’t conducted Newspoll since mid-July, but is publishing its own polls now. The final <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">YouGov Voice poll</a> was accurate, giving “no” an 18-point lead (actual margin: 20.1 points).</p>
<p>The latest federal <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/47889-latest-yougov-poll-labor-narrowly-leads-the-coalition-by-51-to-49">YouGov poll</a>, conducted November 10–14 from a sample of 1,582, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since early October. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and 13% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped four points to -7, while Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -7. Albanese led Dutton by 48–34 as preferred PM (50–34 <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-voice-polls-have-no-leading-by-sizeable-to-landslide-margins-215264">previously</a>).</p>
<p>On November 7, the Reserve Bank <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">raised interest rates</a> by 0.25% to 4.35%. This increase appears to have contributed to Labor’s poll slump, with <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9360-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-november-14">Morgan’s consumer confidence index</a> down 3.5 points to 74.3 last week, its lowest since mid-July and continuing a record run of 41 weeks below 85.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor just ahead</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted November 8–12 from a sample of 1,150, gave Labor a 49–47 lead including undecided (48–46 in late October). Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>This is the second Essential poll to be conducted since they <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology">changed their methods</a> to include weighting by educational level. The gain for the Greens implies Labor should be further ahead, but received a weak flow of respondent allocated preferences.</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/14-november-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese had a 35–33 negative rating, reversing a 37–29 positive rating in August. Dutton was at 35–32 negative (35–27 negative in August).</p>
<p>On bushfires, 44% thought this season would be worse than last summer, 10% better and 46% about the same. Asked to compare to the summer of 2019–20, it was 31% worse, 19% better and 50% about the same. By 53–31, voters thought our bushfires are made worse by climate change over having nothing to do with climate change.</p>
<p>On interest rates, 52% (down 11 since June) thought they would continue to rise, 39% (up nine) thought we have reached the peak but they won’t go down for a while and 9% (up two) thought they would start to fall soon. By 49–15, voters thought rising interest rates had had a negative personal impact over a positive one (51–17 in February).</p>
<p>By 46–34, voters thought immigration to Australia was generally positive (50–35 in April 2019).</p>
<p>On the Israel-Gaza conflict, 21% (up eight since October) thought Australia should provide active assistance to Palestine, 17% (down six) assist Israel and 62% (down two) stay out. On tensions between the US and China, 27% said we should support the US, 6% China and 67% stay as neutral as possible.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 50–50 tie</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">weekly Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 6–12 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9534-roy-morgan-update-november-14-2023">sample</a> of 1,397, there was a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition, 30% Labor, 13% Greens and 20.5% for all Others.</p>
<p>In a separate <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/australians-are-evenly-divided-on-whether-israel-should-withdraw-their-armed-forces-from-gaza-immediately-or-not">national Morgan SMS</a> poll, conducted November 9–12 from a sample of 1,650, 51% said Israel should withdraw their armed forces from Gaza immediately, while 49% said they should not. </p>
<p>By political support, 93% of Greens favoured immediate withdrawal, 64% of Labor voters and 75% of independents. However, 75% of Coalition voters, 78% of One Nation voters and 57% of other parties’ voters opposed immediate withdrawal.</p>
<h2>Additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>In additional questions from the Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 54–18, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/grounded-pm-brought-back-to-earth-on-economy-20231112-p5ejbb.html">voters supported</a> Albanese visiting the US and President Joe Biden. Support for his visit to China and President Xi Jinping was narrower at 38–31.</p>
<p>By 69–14, voters thought <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-aid-not-arms-as-protests-fuel-safety-fears-20231113-p5ejj8.html">Australia should stay out</a> of the Israel-Palestine conflict for now, rather than intervene by calling for a ceasefire. Israel was favoured on questions on which side to provide aid or arms to.</p>
<p>Support <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voice-fallout-support-for-treaty-plunges-after-referendum-20231116-p5ekg5.html">for a treaty</a> between the Australian government and Indigenous peoples plunged from 58–27 in October, before the Voice referendum’s heavy defeat, to 37–33 opposed in November.</p>
<p>In another development, after losing preselection for his seat of Monash, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-14/russell-broadbent-quits-liberal-party-after-preselection-loss/103102336">Russell Broadbent</a> defected from the Liberals on November 14 and will sit as an independent. Broadbent is 72, and this shows that Australian political parties don’t want very old candidates.</p>
<h2>Victorian Labor easily holds Mulgrave at byelection</h2>
<p>A Victorian state byelection occurred in Mulgrave on Saturday. This seat was previously held by former Labor premier Daniel Andrews. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/results">Primary votes were</a> 40.1% Labor (down 10.1% since the 2022 election), 21.6% Liberals (up 4.4%), 18.9% for independent Ian Cook (up 0.9%), 5.9% Greens (up 0.8%), 3.8% Victorian Socialists (new), 3.1% Family First (up 1.1%) and 2.9% Libertarian (new).</p>
<p>The electoral commission’s election night preference count was between Labor and Cook, who finished second in 2022. Labor defeated Cook by 56.2–43.8, a 4.7% swing to Cook. I hope the commission will re-do this count between Labor and the Liberals. </p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023/commentary">expects the Liberals</a> to do slightly better than Cook against Labor after preferences. Given the retirement of a high-profile former member and the poor polling for federal Labor, I think this is a decent result for Labor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor Party continues the poll slide it has experienced since the failed Voice referendum in October.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144572023-09-27T04:59:49Z2023-09-27T04:59:49ZWho is Jacinta Allan, Victoria’s new premier?<p>With the sudden announcement that Daniel Andrews will be stepping down as premier of Victoria at 5pm today, the Labor Party has been working to find the best replacement. </p>
<p>Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan, from the Socialist Left faction, was widely tipped to become the next premier, especially as she had Andrews’ endorsement. But some late challenges from the Right made it more complicated, with Transport Minister Ben Carroll also throwing his hat in the ring. </p>
<p>In the end, the party room voted for Allan as premier and Carroll as deputy.</p>
<p>But who is Jacinta Allan and what challenges await her as premier?</p>
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<h2>From Bendigo East to premier</h2>
<p>Allan, 50, is a highly experienced political operator. She became the youngest female elected to the Victorian parliament when she first won the seat of Bendigo East at age 25 in 1999. That was the election in which Steve Bracks led Labor to an unexpected victory over the Jeff Kennett-led Coalition.</p>
<p>After holding several ministerial positions, Allan was selected as the deputy leader of the Labor Party, and therefore deputy premier of Victoria, in 2022. </p>
<p>This was interpreted as a clear indication that Premier Daniel Andrews had anointed her to take over if he was to retire before the next election.</p>
<p>Allan comes from the Socialist Left – the same faction as Andrews. There have been some major shifts in the factions of Victorian Labor in recent months, with the Socialist Left strengthening its influence. </p>
<p>Following the 2022 election, for example, several MPs aligned with the Right faction moved to the Left. Within this context, Allan should enjoy strong support from parliamentary colleagues to become leader.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dan-andrews-leaves-office-as-a-titan-of-victorian-politics-who-drove-conservatives-to-distraction-214373">Dan Andrews leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics - who drove conservatives to distraction</a>
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<h2>Public profile</h2>
<p>Andrews has dominated the Victorian Labor Party since he won his first election in 2014. Such was his dominance, and the media’s interest in him, that other ministers have often struggled to increase their public profile. </p>
<p>Allan has arguably developed a stronger public profile than other potential challengers. However, this has also come at a difficult time for Labor in Victoria. The past few months presented the Andrews government with some major policy challenges. </p>
<p>The decision to back out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games, for instance, attracted some strong criticism. As the minister responsible for the games, Allan was the target of the opposition’s attacks on the government. Some Labor MPs were also reportedly critical of Allan’s performance in the infrastructure portfolio, when projects such as the Airport Rail project were delayed.</p>
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<h2>Victoria’s second female premier</h2>
<p>The late Joan Kirner made history in 1990 when she became the first woman to be premier of Victoria. Kirner replaced John Cain junior but was left with a range of major economic problems, which the onset of a national recession at the time made even more difficult.</p>
<p>Kirner was also left with a divided Labor Party that had been in power since Cain first led the party to victory in 1982. By 1992, voters in Victoria had turned against Labor. They handed the Kennett-led Coalition a comfortable victory in the election that year.</p>
<p>The circumstances of Allan’s rise share some similarities with those of Kirner. Rather than a recession, it has been COVID-19 that has had major social and economic impacts. The new premier must now work through the fallout from the pandemic. </p>
<p>These conditions remind us of a phenomenon called the “glass cliff”, where organisations often turn to women to take on leadership roles in less-than-ideal circumstances – and they must bear the consequences. </p>
<p>Indeed, Allan will have much work ahead to lead the state in the post-COVID period. She will also have to make what is near to being a ten-year government appear to have new and fresh ideas. By the time of the next election in 2026, it will be a 12-year government, which is hard to sell no matter its record.</p>
<p>At the same time, uniting the Labor Party and its fraught factional system will be high on the agenda.</p>
<p>Moreover, the new premier will have to face an opposition that may get greater visibility and resonate with more voters in the post-Andrews period, assuming the Liberal Party can present as a more united and cohesive force than it has managed to date.</p>
<p>With three years to go until the next election, Victorian politics will look very different with Daniel Andrews out of the picture.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-5-senior-ministers-quitting-victorias-andrews-government-a-sign-of-renewal-or-decline-185857">Is 5 senior ministers quitting Victoria’s Andrews government a sign of renewal – or decline?</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new premier has a great deal of experience in politics, but inherits the premiership with the state facing a series of major economic problems.Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143732023-09-26T09:18:33Z2023-09-26T09:18:33ZDan Andrews leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics - who drove conservatives to distraction<p>Daniel Andrews, who has announced he will step down after nearly nine years as premier, leaves office as a titan of Victorian politics. An activist premier, a gifted political communicator and a hard man of politics, he has been an enormously consequential leader and one of national significance. He is the fourth-longest serving premier in Victorian history, and the longest-serving Labor premier. </p>
<p>While his government has had more than its share of controversies, such as the so called <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/mistake-to-arrest-red-shirt-campaigners-ombudsman-20220727-p5b4x3.html">“red shirts” scandal</a> and, more recently, the debacle of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cancelling-the-commonwealth-games-wont-come-cheaply-victoria-now-faces-the-legal-consequences-210054">cancelled 2026 Commonwealth Games</a>, Andrews will nonetheless be remembered as a progressive premier whose social reforms and massive infrastructure program have transformed the state. </p>
<p>And he was enormously successful with it, winning three elections, most recently another landslide victory in November 2022. Over that time, he has dominated his party and the state. And even after nine years in office, recent opinion polls have still shown his government enjoying a commanding lead over the opposition.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dan-andrews-quits-after-nine-years-as-premier-of-victoria-214372">Dan Andrews quits after nine years as premier of Victoria</a>
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<h2>The hard man rises</h2>
<p>From the time he entered office, Andrews was an activist and was assertive with power. There were at least two aspects at play here. The first that it’s his natural style – Andrews is a classic strong leader, command and control is his modus operandi. When he encounters an obstacle his instinct is to barge through it, and when he is criticised he doubles down, denying there is any case to answer. </p>
<p>The second aspect is that during his time as opposition leader between 2010 and 2014 he witnessed a becalmed Victorian government, led by Liberals Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine. By 2014 when Andrews won power, it was evident the public was yearning for activity. Victoria’s infrastructure was run down and no longer fit for purpose, unable to cope with its booming population. </p>
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<p>During his first term, Andrews unleashed a gargantuan infrastructure program, including railway level crossing removals, the metro rail link, the suburban rail loop and an array of road extensions and upgrades.</p>
<p>But his government wasn’t solely focussed on changing the physicality of the state. Andrews understood that in Victoria, perhaps more than anywhere else in Australia, there was leeway to pursue a progressive social agenda. He did this successfully, too, despite the inevitable controversy the reforms engendered, leading the way on the Safe Schools program, Voluntary Assisted Dying legislation, and a Treaty with Indigenous Victorians, among other issues. </p>
<p>In doing so, he made Victoria an incubator for social reform, providing a catalyst for other states to follow its lead on these issues.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-political-force-of-nature-despite-scandals-and-a-polarising-style-can-dan-do-it-again-in-victoria-187344">'A political force of nature': despite scandals and a polarising style, can 'Dan' do it again in Victoria?</a>
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<h2>A democratic deficit</h2>
<p>However, Andrews was not progressive on every issue. On law and order, for example, his instincts were conservative. For example, on his watch discriminatory bail laws contributed to Indigenous Australians being incarcerated in disproportionate numbers. </p>
<p>He has also chafed at being accountable, leading to a democratic deficit on his watch. His approach when under pressure - most recently demonstrated in the Commonwealth Games cancellation - is to double down and refuse to budge, taking a “nothing to see here” approach. </p>
<p>Under Andrews, power has become highly centralised in his private office, and there have been troubling signs of the politicisation of the public service. </p>
<p>His dominance has been reinforced by the dysfunction of the Liberal Party. Indeed, so supreme has Labor been that Victoria has effectively turned into a one-party state, an unhealthy state of affairs that should be of concern to all Victorians.</p>
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<h2>#IstandwithDan v #DictatorDan</h2>
<p>It was during the COVID pandemic that Andrews became a leader of national prominence. His daily press conferences during the darkest days of the crisis were eagerly watched across the nation.</p>
<p>With the harshest and longest lockdowns in the country, social media gave the impression of a deeply polarised state: those who said #IstandwithDan and those who were enraged by #DictatorDan. </p>
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<p>In truth, the polarisation was mostly a myth. Certainly, there were partisans at both ends of the spectrum, but the “Dictator Dan” group was only ever a noisy rump, egged on by the strident opposition to Andrews by conservative commentators at the Herald Sun and Sky News.</p>
<p>Indeed, one of the notable aspects of Andrews as a public figure is that his combination of progressive boldness, political effectiveness and forceful leadership has driven conservatives to distraction. They are hyperbolic about him - they characterised him as something akin to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, a supreme leader grown democratically untouchable. </p>
<p>Why? Because he was so effective - here was a socialist left premier leading one of the largest states in the country, and bucking political shibboleths such as that governments ought not go into substantial debt and deficit.</p>
<p>And he kept winning elections, and handsomely, making his conservative critics look foolish.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-political-leaders-are-electoral-gold-but-the-trick-is-in-them-knowing-when-to-stand-down-212119">Strong political leaders are electoral gold – but the trick is in them knowing when to stand down</a>
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<h2>The Dan vacuum</h2>
<p>Andrews kept winning because he was an activist, assertive, and got things done. Victorians didn’t necessarily love him, but they respected him. In more recent times his forcefulness had morphed into something darker. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-term-limits-for-australian-political-leaders-could-build-a-stronger-democracy-213063.">I have written</a>, his leadership had grown oppressive. He rarely smiled; he looked and sounded tired. His going in that sense is a healthy thing: it will disturb the power relations that have centred on him.</p>
<p>So what now? Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan has effectively been the heir apparent since Andrews anointed her as his successor last year during a major exit of ministers. </p>
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<p>He will leave an enormous vacuum, both in the party he has led for 13 years and the government he’s led for nine. It was once said that another political titan, Robert Menzies, <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-156908158/view">was the banyan tree</a> under which nothing would grow, and there is an element of that about Andrews.</p>
<p>Whoever becomes premier will have to tackle some significant economic challenges, including ballooning infrastructure spending, and the fallout from massive COVID spending. Moreover, by the time of the next state election in 2026, Labor will have been in power for 12 years, and no matter how dominant and activist a government might be, an “it’s time” factor will inevitably kick in.</p>
<p>“Glass cliff” is a term used in political science for situations in which women inherit a leadership position when things are falling apart. Will this be Allan’s lot?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An activist premier, a gifted political communicator and a hard man of politics, Dan Andrews has been an enormously consequential leader and one of national significance.Paul Strangio, Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120052023-08-30T01:46:09Z2023-08-30T01:46:09ZAs referendum set for October 14, ‘yes’ is behind and the poll trends are unfavourable<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. To succeed, a constitutional referendum requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority.</p>
<p>I have been tracking 2023 Voice polls in a graph since <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">early July</a>. This graph now shows the referendum date.</p>
<p>A Voice poll hasn’t been conducted since the mid-August <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">Resolve poll</a> that gave “no” a 54–46 lead. But all recent polls have trended to “no”, with the most friendly pollster for “yes” (Essential) showing “no” ahead by 47–43 in their <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">early August</a> poll.</p>
<p>In early May I wrote that just one out of 25 Labor-initiated referendums had succeeded in winning the required double majority. Furthermore, while not succeeding, referendums held by Labor had performed much better when held with a general election than as a standalone vote.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<p>With the polling trends as they are, it’s very difficult to see “yes” winning a national majority. If “no” wins nationally, the state results don’t matter. </p>
<h2>Ticks and crosses referendum issue</h2>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission will <a href="https://aec.gov.au/referendums/vote/completing-the-ballot-paper.html">instruct voters</a> to write either “yes” or “no” in the space provided on the ballot paper. But in a <a href="https://aec.gov.au/media/2023/08-25.htm">media release</a> last Friday, the AEC said that, owing to longstanding legal advice, ticks would be counted as “yes” votes, but crosses would be informal.</p>
<p>This legal advice says a tick is used to indicate approval, so it should be counted as “yes”. A cross can indicated disapproval, but can also indicate a choice, such as on government forms. As a cross is ambiguous, it should not be counted.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/08/voice-referendum-ticks-and-crosses.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said the informal rate at the two 1999 referendums was about 0.9%, and these informal votes would have included blank and other clearly informal votes, so the cross informal rate was likely about 0.1%. </p>
<p>The “no” side is now well ahead in polling for this referendum, and that lead is increasing. It’s very unlikely the ticks and crosses issue will affect the result.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: 51–43 to Labor including undecided</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted August 16–20 from a sample of 1,151, Labor led by 51–43 including undecided (52–42 the previous fortnight). Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (up three), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down three), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Respondents were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/22-august-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese, Peter Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–29 positive (36–27 in June). Dutton was at 35–27 negative (34–27 previously). Bandt was at 36–21 negative (38–21 <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">previously</a>).</p>
<p>In a forced choice, 57% said they were glad Albanese’s Labor government won the last election, while 43% said it would have been better if Scott Morrison’s Liberal government had been re-elected.</p>
<p>By 67–13, voters agreed that professional sportswomen and sportsmen should be paid equally, and by 50–21 they agreed their interest in women’s sport had increased after Australia hosted the women’s soccer world cup.</p>
<p>On regulation of rents, 34% wanted rents frozen until economic conditions improve, 44% allowed to rise once a year by no more than inflation, 11% allowed to rise once a year by any amount and 10% unlimited rent increases.</p>
<p>By 90–10, voters thought they should have a right to know whether content is generated by Artificial Intelligence or not. On benefits and risks, 54% thought AI development has an equal amount of benefits and risks, 36% more risks than benfits and 10% more benefits than risks.</p>
<p>By 52–48, voters said they were financially comfortable over struggling, the first lead for comfortable in this question since late March.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: 53.5–46.5 to Labor</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal weekly <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan poll</a>, conducted August 21–27 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9479-roy-morgan-update-august-29-2023">sample</a> of 1,396, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/morgan-poll/primary-voting-intention">Primary votes</a> were 35% Labor (up 1.5), 35% Coalition (down 1.5), 13.5% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (down one), 6.5% independents (down two) and 5% others (up two). Labor dropped 1.5 points last week.</p>
<h2>NSW: Mark Latham resigns from One Nation</h2>
<p>On August 22, New South Wales upper house MPs Mark Latham and Rod Roberts <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-22/mark-latham-and-rod-roberts-quit-one-nation/102760276">resigned from One Nation</a>, after accusing the party of “defrauding NSW electoral funds”. They will continue to sit as independents in the NSW upper house. Latham had earlier been ousted by Pauline Hanson as One Nation’s NSW leader.</p>
<p>These defections reduce One Nation from three to one NSW upper house MP. Two of their three MPs were elected in 2019, and will be up for election in 2027. Latham was elected in 2023, so his term doesn’t finish until 2031.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls</a>
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<h2>Victorian Warrandyte byelection: Liberals crush Greens</h2>
<p>At the 2022 Victorian state election, the Liberals beat Labor in <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2023by2/LA.htm?s=Warrandyte">Warrandyte</a> by a 54.2–45.8 margin. Labor did not contest Saturday’s byelection. The Liberals <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/vic2023by2/Results/LA.htm?s=Warrandyte">defeated the Greens</a> by 71.1–28.9, from primary votes of 57.4% Liberals (up 8.9%), 18.6% Greens (up 7.4%), 5.7% Labour DLP (new), 4.1% independent Maya Tesa (new) and 3.9% Victorian Socialists (new). Labor won 33.2% in 2022.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to interpret byelections that are forfeited by one major party, but the Liberals will be happy with the surge in their primary vote. Many Labor voters clearly voted Liberal instead of Greens.</p>
<h2>Right likely to win October 14 New Zealand election</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/23/new-zealand-election-minus-seven-and-a-half-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> on August 23 that the two main right-wing New Zealand parties are likely to form government after the October 14 New Zealand election, replacing the current Labour government. The right is also likely to win the October 22 Argentine election, while there’s a UK byelection in an SNP-held seat to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212005/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the “yes” case is to win the October referendum, there will need to be sharp turn around in the polling trends to date.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116742023-08-21T05:15:06Z2023-08-21T05:15:06ZLNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-ahead-in-the-polls-as-voters-consider-crisafulli-over-palaszczuk-20230815-p5dwmf.html">Resolve</a> poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted from May to August with a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 38% of the primary vote (up five since January to April), Labor 32% (down three), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 8% (up one), independents 8% (down two) and others 3% (up one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two-party estimate until near elections, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/18/resolve-strategic-lnp-38-labor-32-greens-11-in-queensland/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 51.5–48.5 lead for the LNP from this poll, a 4.5-point gain for the LNP <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107">since April</a>.</p>
<p>Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor. The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">Freshwater poll</a> that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability has deteriorated this year. She was at net +8 in the poll conducted in late 2022, net -5 in early 2023 and now net -15 in this poll. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved six points from April to +7. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk by 37–36 as preferred premier, reversing a Palaszczuk lead of 39–31 in April.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election">early 2015</a>, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state. It was the only state the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseTppByState-27966.htm">Coalition won at the 2022 federal election</a>.</p>
<p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-lead-stays-strong-but-andrews-personal-popularity-falls-20230816-p5dx0e.html">Victorian state Resolve</a> poll for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 1,047, gave Labor 39% of the primary vote (down two since June), the Coalition 28% (up two), the Greens 13% (down two), independents 13% (up one) and others 7% (up one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/17/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-28-greens-13-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger</a> estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition <a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">since June</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains</a>
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<p>Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ net likeability was down eight points since June to -7, while Liberal leader John Pesutto’s net likeability was up four points to -9. Andrews led Pesutto as preferred premier by 44–29 (49–26 in June).</p>
<p>In questions asked only of the August sample, voters opposed the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games by a 39–35 margin, but those supporting the cancellation would include people who thought Victoria should not have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>Respondents were opposed by 44–30 to the decision to ban gas connections to new homes from next year. By 49–30, they supported <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-answer-is-more-housing-victorian-rental-caps-off-the-table-20230817-p5dxck.html">freezing rent levels</a> so owners can only increase rent every two years.</p>
<p>The July federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Resolve poll</a> was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was <a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/more-sports/bombshell-announcement-leaves-26b-commonwealth-games-in-tatters/news-story/95bcca71bfc734d740a254a6273362f6">announced</a> on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed</a>
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<h2>Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted August 7–13 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9469-roy-morgan-update-august-15-2023">sample</a> of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others. Labor’s lead in Morgan has <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685">increased recently</a> from a low of 52–48 in late July.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.</p>
<h2>Additional federal Resolve questions</h2>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-slide-in-resolve-poll-fadden-byelection-preference-flows-211206">previously covered</a> the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-spurn-idea-of-early-poll-over-housing-deadlock-20230815-p5dwjs.html">additional questions</a> from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024. By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.</p>
<p>On housing policy, 30% agreed with Labor’s position, 24% with the Coalition, 18% with the Greens and 28% were undecided.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-crisis-drives-slump-in-support-for-urgent-climate-action-20230816-p5dwx7.html">climate change</a>, 45% (down six since October 2021) thought it a serious and urgent problem that we should be taking action on now, even if that involves significant costs, 29% (up two) thought gradual action adequate, and 16% (up four) said we shouldn’t take action that has significant costs “until we are sure climate change is a real problem”.</p>
<p>By 59–19, respondents supported Labor’s 43% emissions reduction target by 2030, but support for specific climate change measures dropped since October 2021. For example, 29% (down eight) supported the Greens’ proposal to ban all coal mining and exports by 2030.</p>
<p>The poll article in The Age blames cost-of-living increases for undermining support for climate action.</p>
<h2>Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/20/weekend-miscellany-newspoll-developments-climate-polling-labor-national-executive-ballot/">Poll Bludger</a> reported on Sunday that Pyxis Polling will conduct Newspoll. Pyxis was formed after two senior staff at YouGov, which used to conduct Newspoll, resigned to start their own polling company.</p>
<p>I do not know when the first new Newspoll will appear, but it has now been five weeks since the last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-2pp-despite-primary-slide-lnp-wins-fadden-byelection-easily-209686">YouGov-conducted Newspoll</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211674/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an ‘it’s time’ factor for voters.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099762023-07-21T06:39:16Z2023-07-21T06:39:16ZVictoria’s Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/support-for-victorian-government-and-premier-daniel-andrews-plunges-after-cancellation-of-commonwealth-games">Victorian Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was 1,046 people.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up seven since May), 33% Labor (down nine), 12.5% Greens (steady), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 8.5% others (up 0.5). Support for independents is likely to be overstated as not all seats will attract viable independents at an election.</p>
<p>In a forced choice, voters disapproved of Andrews by 55–45% (compared to a 52.5% approval in May). This is the first time since becoming premier after the 2014 state election that Andrews has had a higher disapproval than approval rating in Morgan polls. Andrews led Liberal leader John Pesutto as better premier by 52.5–47.5%, a drastic reduction from his 64–36% lead in May.</p>
<p>By 58–42%, voters also supported the cancellation of the games. However, the 58% who supported this would have included voters who thought the government should never have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>The plunge for Labor in this poll is likely due to the public perception the government has been incompetent in its handling of the games ordeal.</p>
<h2>Labor maintains huge lead in national Resolve poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-approval-rating-lowest-since-election-but-still-well-ahead-of-dutton-20230717-p5dork.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,610 people, Labor had 39% of the primary vote (down one since June), the Coalition 30% (steady), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not publish a two-party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows gives Labor about a 58.5–41.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since June. Resolve’s polls have been much better for Labor than others since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% good (down two points) and 35% poor (<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">steady</a>), for a net approval of +16, down two points. </p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -15. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 51–21% (compared to 53–22% in June).</p>
<p>On economic management, Labor led the Liberals by 35–31%, little changed from a 34–31% Labor lead in June. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 31–24%, an increase from a 27–23% Labor lead in June.</p>
<p>By 51–37%, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/half-of-australians-on-financial-brink-as-living-costs-bite-20230717-p5dorj.html">voters also agreed</a> if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars, they would struggle to afford it (46–41% disagreed with this premise in February). </p>
<p>Just 5% thought the economy would improve in the next month, though support was higher with longer time periods (28% for next year, 41% for next five years).</p>
<p>The survey respondents were told <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/majority-of-voters-believe-migration-intake-is-too-high-20230718-p5dp69.html">permanent migration into Australia</a> was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels in 2020-21, and that to make up for this, immigration is likely to reach 350,000–400,000 this year before falling to 320,000 next year.</p>
<p>On these new levels of immigration, 59% thought them to be too high, 25% said they were about right and just 3% too low. By 38–34%, voters supported increasing the minimum wage for temporary skilled visa holders from $53,900 to $70,000 a year.</p>
<h2>Federal Labor maintains lead in Morgan poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan weekly federal poll</a>, conducted July 10–16 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9434-roy-morgan-update-july-18-2023">sample</a> of 1,401 people, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. This is the second successive 1.5-point gain for the Coalition in this poll. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 35% Coalition, 12.5% Greens and 17% for all others. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1681554510425264128">Kevin Bonham</a> said Morgan’s respondent allocated preferences were unusually bad for Labor this week.</p>
<h2>Fadden byelection near-final result</h2>
<p>With nearly all votes counted in last <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm">Saturday’s federal byelection</a> for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.4–36.6%, a 2.8% swing to the LNP since the 2022 election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 49.1% LNP (up 4.5%), 22.0% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.2%), 7.3% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.6%). Turnout is currently 71.5%.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor holds big lead, but down since May</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/majority-still-liked-and-respected-berejiklian-but-one-third-changed-minds-after-corrupt-finding-20230720-p5dpum.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal June and July Resolve polls, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down three since May), the Coalition 32% (up one), the Greens 10% (up one), independents 11% (up one) and others 5% (steady).</p>
<p>Bonham <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1682206140715909121">estimated</a> a Labor two-party lead of 58.5–41.5% from these primary votes. Labor Premier Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman by 39–12% as preferred premier (compared to 42–12% in May).</p>
<p>Respondents in the poll were told the Independent Commission Against Corruption had found “serious corrupt conduct” concerning former Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s romantic relationship with a former MP. </p>
<p>However, by 51–25%, voters agreed they still liked and respected Berejiklian. By 40–34%, they agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as premier based on the ICAC report.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time since becoming premier in 2014, more voters disapprove of Dan Andrews than approve of him in the Morgan poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1929412022-10-20T04:33:03Z2022-10-20T04:33:03ZVictoria signals end of coal by announcing a new 95% renewable target. It’s a risky but vital move<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490784/original/file-20221020-20-3hzq5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C4188%2C2752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s the end of the line for coal in Victoria, after Victorian Premier Dan Andrews today announced plans for 95% renewables within 13 years. Until now, the industrialised state has been aiming for 50% by 2030. </p>
<p>But it’s also the end of the line for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">ailing</a>, mostly privatised, energy market. Public ownership is back in vogue – in a recognition the energy market cannot deliver the transformation required. The Andrews Labor government would bring back the State Electricity Commission (SEC) if re-elected next month and use this to build new renewable energy projects. </p>
<p>At a national level, Labor is aiming for 82% renewables by 2030. So is Victoria’s target even possible? Yes – if the state government can overcome the major stumbling block of transmission. Building solar and wind isn’t the bottleneck – it’s the grid that isn’t fit for purpose. </p>
<p>Still, it’s an encouraging sign that the clean energy floodgates are opening in our eastern coal states. Queensland is <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/about/newsroom/queensland-energy-and-jobs-plan">now aiming</a> for 70% renewables in a decade. New South Wales is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-make-single-biggest-investment-in-renewable-energy-20220609-p5asmc.html">forging ahead</a> with renewable energy zones. </p>
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<h2>Dizzying pace of change</h2>
<p>Why are governments boosting renewable ambitions so dramatically? Several reasons. In Victoria, there’s an election campaign under way. Labor is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/11/guardian-essential-poll-daniel-andrews-in-strong-position-for-labor-victory-in-victorian-election">widely expected</a> to win a fourth term – and infrastructure is one of its strengths. This offers an exciting vision of the future – and any political blowback from cost overruns will come later on. </p>
<p>But other changes are afoot. Operators of ailing and ageing coal plants are looking for the exit. The huge Loy Yang A power plant – responsible for 13% of the state’s emissions – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">will close in 2035</a>, a decade ahead of schedule. </p>
<p>Climate change is intensifying, with unprecedented floods in Australia and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-climate-scientist-on-the-planets-simultaneous-disasters-from-pakistans-horror-floods-to-europes-record-drought-189626">Pakistan</a>, unprecedented droughts in America’s west and China, and marine heatwaves <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-10-key-culprit-alaska-crab-mass.html">devastating fisheries</a>. Solar is now the cheapest form of newly built power. </p>
<p>Elsewhere around the world, offshore wind turbine technology has matured into 16 megawatt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/business/GE-wind-turbine.html">giant turbines</a>, stretching hundreds of metres into the sky. And the Russian war on Ukraine has driven fossil fuel prices skyward, causing hip pocket pain to consumers around the world. </p>
<p>This move will also give Victoria’s emissions reduction target a shot in the arm. Nationally, a third of our emissions come from electricity. In brown-coal capital Victoria, it’s traditionally been 50%. Clean power will get the state about halfway to its emissions targets. The announcement today made no mention of other emissions sources – manufacturing, agriculture and transport. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/so-long-loy-yang-shutting-australias-dirtiest-coal-plant-a-decade-early-wont-jeopardise-our-electricity-supply-191577">So long, Loy Yang: shutting Australia’s dirtiest coal plant a decade early won’t jeopardise our electricity supply</a>
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<img alt="wind turbines in ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490805/original/file-20221020-19-jkobon.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Offshore wind, such as this facility off Germany, is booming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>But is it possible?</h2>
<p>Close your eyes tightly and squeeze. Can you see it? Yes, it’s physically possible – just. But I raise two serious caveats.</p>
<p>First, it means coal fired power will have to end. Second, we have to find ways of building the unsexy but crucial part of the clean energy system: transmission and storage. There’s a lot to build in a short time and the cost will tend to offset the low cost on the renewable generation. </p>
<p>When the coal power stations were built in the Latrobe Valley east of Melbourne – where the coal is mined – state governments footed the bill for the huge transmission towers needed to take the electricity to where people live and work. </p>
<p>Now we need to do that again but on a much larger scale. This poses serious risks. Rural communities are almost guaranteed to push back on large new transmission lines. They may well be in favour of clean energy, but they don’t want big new power lines. </p>
<p>Some might say Australia can’t build like this any more. But we can, as our recent fossil fuel infrastructure builds show. Only a decade or so ago, Queensland built huge new gas export terminals at Gladstone. The cost blew out, but it was done. </p>
<p>We can do it, but it will cost us. The conversion of Snowy Hydro to a pumped hydro plant is way over budget and time. Current transmission projects like EnergyConnect, which will link NSW and South Australia, have seen budgets double. </p>
<p>We’ve done the easy part – solar on rooftops, wind and solar farms in places with good existing grid connections. That got Victoria’s renewables over 20%. Now comes the hard part – transmission, and storage. </p>
<p>Victoria has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/27/victoria-pledges-nations-most-ambitious-renewable-energy-storage-targets">already announced</a> a renewable storage target equal to half the state’s household use. But it will get harder and more expensive the closer we get to the 95% figure.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-electricity-transmission-system-and-why-does-it-need-fixing-147903">What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?</a>
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<img alt="Transmission lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363597/original/file-20201015-23-16l0n70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Energy Security Board has called for transmission infrastructure upgrades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What does this mean for energy markets?</h2>
<p>Some old-timers will shed a tear of joy at the news the SEC is coming back. But why the reversal, after the state government privatised the electricity market in the 1990s? </p>
<p>The reason is the market is not delivering the clean energy transition. For years, we’ve pretended the market can make the shift by itself, but it hasn’t. Continuous government intervention and policy changes certainly didn’t help. Working through the government-appointed Energy Security Board to reform the market didn’t work either. </p>
<p>We’ve needed these new transmission links for years and the existing regulatory model hasn’t delivered. </p>
<p>The announcement today represents a fundamental change. The energy market is set to change completely. Yes, there are risks in having the state government do it. But governments like Victoria’s have been emboldened by the pandemic, which saw all of us look to them – not the market – to steer us through. </p>
<p>What happens to the workers on coal plants? Victoria is quite well placed already. The closure of the highly polluting Hazelwood plant in 2017 caught the state government by surprise. In response, it created the LaTrobe Valley Authority to help people transition to other work. </p>
<p>Five years later, the authority is still there. That’s good – it’s well placed to help ex-coal workers find jobs in other industries such as wind turbine manufacture or construction. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-fired-power-is-in-sight-even-with-private-interests-holding-out-191951">The end of coal-fired power is in sight, even with private interests holding out</a>
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<h2>It may surprise you, but we’re a role model</h2>
<p>When I’m asked which countries Australia should look to on the energy transition, I can’t help but laugh. In reality, we’re at the forefront. Many other countries are looking at us for ideas. Last year, South Australia <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/16/south-australia-set-to-become-first-big-grid-to-run-on-100-renewables/">made history</a> by becoming the first gigawatt scale grid to (briefly) run on 100% renewables. </p>
<p>While we’ve historically been highly dependent on fossil fuels, we have also had a competitive advantage in shifting. After all, we have rather a lot of sun, wind and land. </p>
<p>So, the verdict on Victoria’s upgraded ambition? 10/10 for vision. But there’s a lot of heavy lifting involved in making it a reality. And the issues we often think of – where to build renewables – are no longer the issue. Now we need old-fashioned transmission towers and high voltage powerlines – and fast. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418">The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It's time the grid returned to public hands</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Through his superannuation fund, Tony Wood owns shares in companies that could have an interest in the topic of this article.</span></em></p>Victoria’s new renewable plan is welcome - but it relies on building unsexy and challenging new transmission lines across the state.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918512022-10-09T19:10:57Z2022-10-09T19:10:57ZThe Liberal Party is in a dire state across Australia right now. That should worry us all<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488831/original/file-20221008-58076-jjy784.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=347%2C0%2C3646%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“The duty of an Opposition is to oppose” – attributed to Lord Randolph Churchill – is one of those quotations I remember seeing on exam papers in high school politics classes. It is true, but only half-true.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott opposed. He opposed relentlessly. Assisted by a conservative media that also opposed relentlessly, he did much to help destroy the Labor governments of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, although they did a better job of destroying themselves. </p>
<p>When Abbott won a massive victory at the 2013 election, it was easy to proclaim him an all-time champion. In their book Battleground: Why the Liberal Party Shirtfronted Tony Abbott, Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen thought historians might one day see Abbott as the country’s “best ever opposition leader”.</p>
<p>Yet the negativity surrounding the role rarely makes opposition leaders popular. Late in 2012, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/08/tony-abbott-australias-new-prime-minister">60% of the public</a> told pollsters they disapproved of the job Abbott was doing.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-learning-the-wrong-lessons-from-history-186199">Are we learning the wrong lessons from history?</a>
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<p>In most occupations, we do not treat people only capable of doing half their job as good at it. Abbott was, at best, capable of doing half his job. Even then, he brought such political aggression and opportunism to the task that it poisoned the well for when he won office. As prime minister, he continued to be the country’s most prominent opposition leader.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488694/original/file-20221007-16-mmjydr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Some have praised Tony Abbott’s skill as an opposition leader. But opposing is only half the job.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Under the system of party government that still operates in Australia, we need effective oppositions. We need them for two reasons. They are there to keep governments accountable. And they are there to prepare for being the government themselves. </p>
<p>Assuming for a moment that both sides of politics accept both democratic norms and that their mission is to serve the public good – assumptions that recent US experience, and a little of our own, suggest might be dubious – it is beneficial to have changes of government every few years. At best, it can freshen policy, challenge entrenched assumptions, and bring new personnel, energy and life to government. </p>
<p>As in sport, many people are wedded to their own “team” and want that team to win – although in Australian politics, far fewer today than a generation or two ago. But as in a sporting competition in which the same team wins every year, it is not good for democratic politics when one party is permanently excluded from office. That is why those who think the present weakness of the Liberal Party is only a cause for celebration or mockery might do well to think again.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ weakness is self-evident and, especially at the state level, part of a long-term change in the country’s electoral politics. Labor had only been a majority government once before John Cain junior became Victorian premier in 1982. In the 40 years since, it has only had three terms out of office.</p>
<p>The pattern in South Australia is similar, although the shift there occurred earlier. Decades of Liberal dominance to the mid-1960s were followed by decades of Labor dominance. In Queensland, Labor dominated from 1915 to 1957, the Country Party or Nationals (sometimes partnered by the Liberals) from then until 1989, and Labor has dominated since. In New South Wales, a Coalition government in office since 2011 has moved on to premier number four, looks tired, is often mired in scandal. It faces an uphill battle to be re-elected in March next year.</p>
<p>In the various states, the Liberal Party’s position seems dire. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-28/wa-liberals-finds-unethical-and-underhand-conduct-pre-election/100415422">A report</a> on the Western Australian branch following its reduction to two lower house seats at the 2021 state election left the impression of an organisation that was a smouldering wreck. The WA Nationals, with four seats, became the opposition. WA voters registered their views again at the 2022 federal election by awarding Labor a swing of more than 10% and electing a teal independent to a formerly safe Liberal seat. </p>
<p>The Victorian Liberal Party, once considered that party’s “jewel in the crown”, has consistently failed to present as a serious alternative to the Andrews Labor government. Its polling is dire in the lead-up to a November election, and it is a regular target of ridicule.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488693/original/file-20221007-17489-sbg4cq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The situation for the federal opposition is even more dire than the 2022 election results suggest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal scene, too, is much worse for the Coalition parties than Labor’s poor primary vote and slight majority at the 2022 election would indicate. That election was a landslide – not in favour of Labor but against the Coalition. Its loss of seats to independents in traditional heartlands looks at least as bad – and probably worse – than the loss of blue-collar support by Labor in many of its own heartlands in the mid-1990s (the latter has, in any case, been consistently exaggerated).</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-australia-just-make-a-move-to-the-left-183611">Did Australia just make a move to the left?</a>
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<p>Oppositions do more than compete for government. They also play a crucial role in keeping governments accountable. It is a rare government that can enjoy years in office without becoming just a little arrogant and entitled. Equally seriously, popular and successful governments might perform poorly in some areas. Labor governments in Victoria and WA, for example, have had significant problems in the delivery of health services. It is appropriate and important to have an opposition that can identify and criticise problems as well as suggest alternative policies and provide viable electoral competition.</p>
<p>As we head towards the 50th anniversary of the election of the Whitlam government in December, it may well be that it is Gough Whitlam’s achievements as opposition leader that should grab our attention. For what it is worth, I consider him the best opposition leader the country has seen. Why? In stark contrast with Abbott, Whitlam was successful both in keeping governments accountable and in preparing for office. No one can accuse Prime Minister Whitlam of behaving as though he were leader of the opposition.</p>
<p>Whitlam’s government had faults. But his was a government with a genuine sense of purpose. It left a significant, positive and enduring imprint on the country. That had its origins in a fruitful period of opposition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno recently wrote a commissioned essay, the research for which was funded by the Whitlam Institute at Western Sydney University, in connection with the 50th anniversary of the Whitlam Government.</span></em></p>Oppositions have two key jobs: to hold the government to account and prepare to take office themselves. At the moment, Liberal oppositions are failing on both counts.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876602022-08-04T07:26:04Z2022-08-04T07:26:04ZRacism in South Africa: why the ANC has failed to dismantle patterns of white privilege<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476919/original/file-20220801-77700-t3rcsj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">ANC leaders led by Cyril Ramaphosa cut a giant cake to mark the ANC's 110th birthday in January.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phill Magakoe/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the sources of social discontent in post-apartheid South Africa is the legacy of white racism. This toxic legacy is evident in racialised poverty and inequality. </p>
<p>It is a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/719876">historical fact</a> that the economic prosperity of whites in South Africa is based on the racist exploitation and impoverishment of blacks. </p>
<p>The long <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/719876">history</a> of racism enabled white South Africans to enjoy one of the highest standards of living in the world by the 1970s. In his new book, titled <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=31759">Can We Unlearn Racism?</a>, Jacob R Boersema, a New York University academic, shows that by the 21st century white South Africans’ “lifetime work-related earnings on average are four times higher than for Africans”. </p>
<p>Add to this <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">corruption</a>, rampant <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-bheki-cele-release-quarter-four-crime-statistics-202122-3-jun-2022-0000">crime</a>, frightening levels of <a href="https://theconversation.com/change-what-south-african-men-think-of-women-to-combat-their-violent-behaviour-167921">gender based violence</a> and <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-08-18-south-africas-profound-institutional-failure/">failing political institutions</a>: the outcome is a social horror show that produces misery for millions of black people. This is what former president Thabo Mbeki was referring to in his <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-22-thabo-mbeki-slams-anc-for-failing-on-unemployment-poverty-inequality/">recent scathing critique</a> of the governing African National Congress (ANC).</p>
<p>Mbeki also criticised the party for not being able to organise a racially diverse audience for the memorial service of the late ANC deputy secretary general <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/jessie-yasmin-duarte">Jessie Duarte</a>. That, he said, showed that the ANC had failed to embody its fundamental value of <a href="https://repository.uwc.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10566/5829/Non%20racialism%20and%20the%20African%20National%20Congress%20views%20from%20the%20branch.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">non-racialism</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-underscores-gross-inequalities-in-south-africa-and-the-need-to-fix-them-135070">Pandemic underscores gross inequalities in South Africa, and the need to fix them</a>
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<p>Mbeki’s thinking reveals deep confusion about “race”, racism, diversity and non-racialism. He falsely assumes that diversity means harmony. </p>
<p>Non-racialism is one of the unexamined dogmas of the ANC. It has its roots in the politics of Christian humanism that inspired the formation of the party in 1912. That humanism regarded Christianity as transcending race by offering <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-African-Nationalism-South-Africa/dp/0520018109">“an ultimate goal of inter-racial harmony based on the brotherhood of man”</a>. </p>
<p>Whatever solidarity there was between different racial groups in political structures like the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/significance-congress-people-and-freedom-charter">Congress Alliance</a> – which drew up the ANC’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-legacy-of-south-africas-freedom-charter-60-years-later-43647">“Freedom Charter”</a> in 1955 – did not translate to the social world outside politics. </p>
<p>The world outside politics was defined by racial segregation. That has not changed much. Apart from the workplace and in schools, ordinary blacks and whites continue to live <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-johannesburgs-suburban-elites-maintain-apartheid-inequities-169295">racially segregated lives</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-white-liberals-dodge-honest-debates-about-race-127846">How South Africa's white liberals dodge honest debates about race</a>
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<p>The ANC, since its formation, has been ideologically trapped in the 19th century black Cape politics of Victorian liberalism – which advocated for loyalty to the British Crown. This resulted in blacks making moral appeals to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/274742">white benevolence</a> for justice and freedom, instead of making political demands. The ANC has never fully understood how white racism functions.</p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The ANC’s establishment in 1912 was driven by an ideological blending of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-African-Nationalism-South-Africa/dp/0520018109">British liberalism and a Christian vision of non-racialism</a>. This equipped it poorly to respond to and make sense of racism and modern South Africa. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men and women give the thumbs up sign from inside a train coach reserved for whites only in 1952, during apartheid. A sign on the train says 'Europeans only'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C528%2C390&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476916/original/file-20220801-24-eadx6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Black commuters defiantly board a train reserved for whites during apartheid in 1952.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bettman via Getty Images</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For most of the early 20th century, the ANC thought it could defeat racism by appealing to Britain’s sense of common justice. In his presidential address to the South African Native Congress (now ANC) in 1912 – which was published in the Christian Express, the Christian missionary journal published by the Lovedale Press – <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/john-langalibalele-dube">Reverend John Dube</a> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1arfjVg421EBuXh6iMRiWwC7e1-ouGFcn/view?usp=sharing">encouraged</a> black people to show “deep and dutiful respect for the rulers whom God has placed over us” because the</p>
<blockquote>
<p>sense of common justice and love of freedom so innate in the British character (would) ultimately triumph over all other baser tendencies to colour prejudice and class tyranny.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Consequently, from its formation to the 1950s, when its leaders were subjected to government bans, the ANC failed to win a single political victory over white racism, as <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520039339/black-power-in-south-africa">historians</a> have pointed out.</p>
<p>From the 1950s, it moved away from <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24738360">“black Victorianism”</a> and incorporated a Pan-Africanist worldview, as well as Das Kapital – Karl Marx’s critique of capitalism. The Marxists in the ANC argued that the aim of the struggle was to overthrow capitalism, which they saw <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520039339/black-power-in-south-africa">in terms of class rather than race</a>.</p>
<p>Black people thus focused their hostility on the apartheid government, and <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520039339/black-power-in-south-africa">“never on whites as such”</a>. Black people who dared to use race as an analytical category were eventually purged from the ANC. </p>
<p>By the turn of this century the ANC had rid itself of British liberalism and Christian politics. But it remained committed to the idea of non-racialism.
And it has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237800101_The_ANC_black_capitalism_in_South_Africa">embraced capitalism </a> – in particular the capitalism entrenched in South Africa by white people.</p>
<p>There are three consequences.</p>
<p>Firstly, the ANC is an intellectually impoverished organisation that rewards incompetence and greed, and encourages individuals to strive to be the king of the rubbish pile. </p>
<p>Secondly, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Gangster-State-Unravelling-Magashules-Pieter-Louis/dp/1776093747">corruption</a> and blatant disregard for the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-06-03-crime-crisis-continues-in-first-quarter-of-2022-with-women-and-children-worst-affected/">law</a> have achieved ambient levels. </p>
<p>Thirdly, South Africa is dysfunctional and <a href="https://www.opensaldru.uct.ac.za/handle/11090/900">social cohesion</a> has broken down.</p>
<h2>Failure of non-racialism</h2>
<p>Mbeki is one of the few ANC politicians <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PpZlvfSP_A">to admit publicly</a> that non-racialism has failed to unite South Africans. The black intellectual ecosystem has yet to develop a compelling analysis of the relationship between white wealth and black poverty. </p>
<p>The white narrative that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01419870.2021.1878251?src=recsys">blames the black elite</a> for the persistence of <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2018/08/das-position-on-economic-empowerment">racialised inequality</a> erases white racism from post-apartheid South Africa. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/Report-03-10-19/Report-03-10-192017.pdf?_ga=2.14935350.1863706996.1659349869-103406588.1655989340#page=59">Statistics South Africa</a>: </p>
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<p>The labour market experiences of different population groups in South Africa continue to diverge substantially, and still reflect the strongly persistent legacies of apartheid policies … Thus, black African unemployment rates are between four and five times as high as they are amongst whites.</p>
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<p>The black middle class remains largely an academic construct. It consists of a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1750481317745750">mere 4.2 million</a> people whereas blacks make up 80% of the population of <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15601">60 million</a>. <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/scis/publications/working-papers/">Research</a> shows no sign of a decrease in racialised wealth inequality since apartheid.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-pro-poor-policies-on-their-own-wont-shift-inequality-in-south-africa-117430">Why 'pro-poor' policies on their own won't shift inequality in South Africa</a>
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<p>The ANC’s failures mean that the vast majority of black people are trapped in poverty, with few prospects of escaping.</p>
<p>Thabo Mbeki is right to be worried. And it is not only the ANC that does not have the solution to the country’s problems. </p>
<p>Until black people break from the ideological capture of non-racialism, the legacy of white racism will never be dislodged.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mandisi Majavu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Non-racialism is one of the unexamined dogmas of the governing ANC, which has never fully understood how white racism functions.Mandisi Majavu, Senior Lecturer, Department of Political and International Studies, Rhodes UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1858572022-06-28T19:57:21Z2022-06-28T19:57:21ZIs 5 senior ministers quitting Victoria’s Andrews government a sign of renewal – or decline?<p>Renewal or decline? These are the competing narratives that now surround Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Labor government, with <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/four-more-senior-victorian-ministers-to-announce-retirement-20220623-p5aw3j.html">five senior ministers</a> exiting cabinet as a preliminary to leaving parliament at November’s state election.</p>
<p>The resignations of this quintet – deputy premier James Merlino, Lisa Neville, Martin Foley, Martin Pakula, and Richard Wynne – is the equivalent of the loss of one quarter of the cabinet. </p>
<p>Another seven ministers have either voluntarily resigned from cabinet or been pushed out during the course of this term of government. This is indisputably a high ministerial turnover.</p>
<p>Yet in another way, this rush to the door is unremarkable. The Andrews administration is already the second longest serving Labor government in Victorian history and at November’s poll will be asking the electorate to extend its tenure to 12 years. </p>
<p>If Andrews were to remain premier until the end of 2026 (which seems more unlikely given the events of the past week) only the post-Second World War Liberal behemoth Henry Bolte would have survived longer in office.</p>
<p>That kind of longevity brings wear and tear. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-treaty-authority-between-first-peoples-and-the-victorian-government-is-a-vital-step-towards-a-treaty-184739">A new Treaty Authority between First Peoples and the Victorian government is a vital step towards a treaty</a>
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<h2>A taxing profession</h2>
<p>Though there is public cynicism about politicians, theirs is a taxing profession.</p>
<p>The five cabinet members who are departing politics in November have a combined total of nearly one hundred years of experience in parliament. </p>
<p>Ministerial responsibilities are particularly demanding and during the COVID-19 pandemic became even more onerous.</p>
<p>There is then an argument that turnover in the composition of cabinet is a good thing. It does bring opportunity for rejuvenation. </p>
<p>Rejuvenation depends, of course, on whether there are still existing reserves of talent on the backbench of Andrews’ ageing government to cover the departures.</p>
<h2>Goodbye James Merlino, hello Jacinta Allan</h2>
<p>Of all the changes to the composition of the Andrews government in the wake of last week’s ministerial resignations, the most significant was Jacinta Allan’s replacement of Merlino as deputy premier. </p>
<p>There are two types of deputy: the loyal lieutenant and the leader in waiting. Merlino was the former – he did not covet the premiership himself. </p>
<p>From all accounts, he also had the necessary skill set to provide an effective foil to Andrews. Andrews is a dominating force within his own government and is not shy of treading on toes. </p>
<p>By way of contrast, as demonstrated when he was acting premier for an extended period during 2021, Merlino was more consultative in style and had a calming influence.</p>
<p>Andrews and Merlino were from different factions and there was an expectation that faction chiefs would insist on the preservation of that arrangement.</p>
<p>However, in a dramatic assertion of his authority, Andrews pre-empted the factions and his parliamentary colleagues by publicly anointing Allan (who, like the premier, is a member of the Socialist Left faction) as Merlino’s replacement. </p>
<p>Presented with a fait accompli, the Labor Caucus dutifully assented to Allan’s elevation.</p>
<p>Andrews’ nomination of Allan as deputy premier is full of meaning. He will have done so in the knowledge (and expectation) she will be a different mould of deputy than was Merlino; she will be more than a loyal lieutenant.</p>
<p>Instead, Allan is now recognised as the heir apparent to Andrews. This was, in short, a succession plan; Andrews is trying to create the conditions for a Labor dynasty that outlasts him.</p>
<h2>Speculation grows about Daniel Andrews’ own future</h2>
<p>Indeed, one of the by-products of the spate of departures from the government and the installation of Allan as deputy premier is that speculation will inevitably grow about Andrews’ own future. </p>
<p>This is likely to be a talking point in November’s election campaign. </p>
<p>Having towered over the Victorian political landscape since his election as premier in November 2014, managing expectations about Andrews’ future exit will be a challenge but also an opportunity for the government.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to November’s election, of all the things that will threaten Labor’s continuing grip on office probably the most dangerous will be an “it’s time” factor.</p>
<p>That is electorate fatigue with a government that will be asking for more than a decade in office. Unquestionably, Andrews will be the focal point of that problem for Labor. </p>
<p>Front and centre in everything the government does, and his prominence especially heightened during the COVID-19 pandemic when he became a figure of national curiosity, there is a risk Andrews will have worn out his welcome with a public that may hanker for life after Dan.</p>
<h2>Remaking an ageing government</h2>
<p>Jacinta Allan’s heir apparent status and an understanding that Andrews is likely to depart some time during a third term may actually become a means for Labor to mitigate the “it’s time” effect.</p>
<p>The recognition that Allan is in line to become Victoria’s second woman premier (behind Joan Kirner) can also further burnish the government’s handsome record of promoting women to senior leadership roles.</p>
<p>The hardest thing for an ageing government is to remake itself.</p>
<p>On balance, last week’s developments in Spring Street represent the first step towards Victorian Labor performing that elusive feat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-5-4bn-big-housing-build-it-is-big-but-the-social-housing-challenge-is-even-bigger-150161">Victoria's $5.4bn Big Housing Build: it is big, but the social housing challenge is even bigger</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The hardest thing for an ageing government is to remake itself. On balance, last week’s developments in Spring Street represent the first step towards Victorian Labor performing that elusive feat.Paul Strangio, Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1407262020-06-15T03:22:55Z2020-06-15T03:22:55ZExplainer: what is branch stacking, and why has neither major party been able to stamp it out?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341726/original/file-20200615-153849-jn36eg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C30%2C4023%2C2638&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Daniel Andrews speaks about the allegations against Somyurek.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Scott Barbour</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Less than 24 hours after <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/secret-tapes-carpark-cash-drops-ministers-threatened-inside-victoria-s-stackathon-20200614-p552gs.html">The Age’s investigation</a> into branch stacking in the Victorian branch of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) aired on 60 minutes, Adem Somyurek was <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/adem-somyurek-resigns-from-cabinet-20200615-p552lp.html">sacked from Daniel Andrew’s cabinet</a>. The allegations have been referred to police, and Somyurek now faces expulsion from the party. </p>
<h2>What is branch stacking?</h2>
<p>Somyurek is alleged to have engaged in the practice of “branch stacking”. This is where people who have no interest in joining a party are enrolled as members by having their memberships paid for by those seeking to influence the party. Some may know they’ve been signed up but not care or understand what has happened; others may not realise at all. </p>
<p>Through building up a base of members who otherwise have no commitment to the party, the practice allows the branch-stacker to manipulate important intra-party decisions that are taken at the local (branch) level. </p>
<p>One of the most important decisions branch members make is who to pre-select to run as the party’s candidate for public office. This is where we see the majority of branch-stacking activities occur – to channel those members’ votes towards a particular candidate.</p>
<p>Influence can then permeate further and further into the party as pre-selection is traded for political favours. It is often aligned with factional battles. It commonly involves the recruitment of people from non-English-speaking backgrounds, distributing money to pay for memberships and even the falsification of signatures of branch meeting attendance rolls where attendance at a minimum number of meetings is a requirement to vote. </p>
<h2>How widespread is it?</h2>
<p>Branch stacking has been a problem in both the major parties for decades, though it is more prominent in the ALP, intertwined with that party’s factional dynamics. </p>
<p>As pre-selection is such a high-stakes activity and a decision that is largely taken at the local level, it is no surprise it’s targeted for manipulation. It has persisted for so long because of the relatively small number of people who actually join political parties in Australia.</p>
<p>This means enrolling even a few members can have a disproportionate outcome on a pre-selection decision, given that so few people are involved in the process. </p>
<p>Pervasive branch-stacking in Queensland led to the establishment in 2000 of an inquiry by the Criminal Justice Commission (<a href="https://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-01/The-Shepherdson-inquiry-Report-2001.pdf">the Shepherdson Inquiry</a>) into electoral fraud concerning several candidate selection contests conducted by the ALP during the 1980s and 1990s. The commission’s report resulted in the passing of legislation that party pre-selection contests be conducted according to the principles of free and democratic elections. </p>
<p>Oversight of this regime is entrusted to the Queensland Electoral Commission, which may enquire into and undertake audits of party preselection processes. Parties that breach these provisions are liable to deregistration and consequently lose public funding. </p>
<p>In 2019, the NSW Liberal Party was at the centre of a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/catholic-college-stacking-scheme-angers-nsw-mps-20191003-p52xbk.html">branch-stacking allegation</a> involving pupils from Campion College, who were allegedly offered parliamentary jobs in return for recruiting members to the party.</p>
<p>In 2007, the outcome of the Liberal pre-selection for the federal seat of Cook was overturned following <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/lib-hopeful-accused-of-branch-stacking-in-cook-20070719-gdqnh9.html">allegations of branch stacking</a>. One of the unsuccessful candidates, David Coleman, now a minister in the Morrison government, even took the matter to the <a href="http://www7.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/2007/736.html">Supreme Court</a>. This litigation, and others that have preceded it (notably the matter initiated by former South Australian Deputy Labor Leader Ralph Clarke), highlight just how serious and high-stakes a problem is it. </p>
<h2>What are parties doing about it?</h2>
<p>Branch stacking is not a condoned practice. Both the ALP and Liberal Party rules contain provisions that prohibit bulk memberships and paying the membership dues of others. The alleged activities of Somyurek clearly contravene these provisions, but the problem is one of party culture, detection and enforcement. </p>
<p>If political parties lack the necessary resources or incentive to enforce anti-branch stacking provisions, a system of electoral commission oversight – as was implemented in Queensland – may be one option.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-liberals-factional-battles-stand-in-way-of-reform-but-changes-in-participation-demand-it-63710">NSW Liberals' factional battles stand in way of reform, but changes in participation demand it</a>
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<p>This was recommended in NSW by two separate reports in 2014 by the <a href="https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2014-media-releases/icac-recommends-more-power-for-nsw-electoral-commission-to-strengthen-election-funding-accountability">Independent Commission Against Corruption </a>(ICAC) and the <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/updates/2014/05/27/panel-of-experts-political-donations/">Expert Panel commissioned by the NSW government</a> to inquire into political finance reform. Both recommended that internal good governance and compliance be explicitly linked with public funding. Despite in principle commitment for this reform, there is has been no legislative movement in this area. </p>
<p>Another reform option might be to introduce American-style primary contests for candidate selection, which would arguably make branch stacking more difficult by widening the pool of participants.</p>
<p>However, as the controversy surrounding the election of Jeremy Corbyn as UK Labour leader aided by thousands of “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/26/jeremy-corbyn-genuine-labour-supporters-leadership-election">registered supporters</a>” in 2015 showed, even these more inclusive methods can face similar criticisms. In other words, one person’s mobilisation of potential voters can be another’s manipulation of electoral outcomes. </p>
<p>Changing the culture of political party pre-selections by opening them up to greater public view and scrutiny may be a further way of removing some of the conditions conducive to branch stacking. Pre-selections, and intra-party decisions more generally, remain largely secretive in Australian politics, despite the significant public importance of these events.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to the <a href="https://press.anu.edu.au/publications/morrisons-miracle">2019 Australian federal election</a>, for example, less than 10% of pre-selections conducted received media coverage as competitive events. </p>
<p>Understanding the importance of party decisions, publicly scrutinising these activities and bringing intra-party politics out from behind closed doors will improve transparency, participation and make it more difficult for branch stacking to continue in Australia’s political parties. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-how-australian-politicians-would-bridge-the-trust-divide-125217">Revealed: how Australian politicians would bridge the trust divide</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140726/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anika Gauja receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Branch stacking has been a problem for a long time in Australia, and changing it will take a genuine will to make party processes more open and accountable.Anika Gauja, Associate Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1055742018-11-25T01:02:49Z2018-11-25T01:02:49ZVictorian Labor’s thumping win reveals how out of step with voters Liberals have become<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247096/original/file-20181125-149335-ylv0jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A jubilant Daniel Andrews celebrates a resounding win in the Victorian election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Daniel Pockett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-landslide-win-in-victoria-107514">commanding return to office</a> of the Andrews government emphatically reaffirms that Labor is the natural ruling party in Victoria. By the time the state’s next election is due in November 2022, Labor will have presided over Spring Street for three-quarters of the previous four decades.</p>
<p>That ascendancy is replicated in federal election results: the ALP has won the two-party preferred vote in Victoria on 12 of the past 14 occasions. The flipside is that Victoria has become foreign ground for the Liberal Party. It seems almost unimaginable that this was once the state dubbed the “jewel in the Liberal crown”.</p>
<p>If Labor’s re-election consolidates an established trend in Victorian politics, the scale of the victory (it has invited comparisons with the ALP’s <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-can-we-explain-the-bracks-landslide-20021206-gduvxh.html">Steve “Bracks-slide” of 2002</a>) and the terms on which it has been won are remarkable.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-election-the-scandals-sloganeering-and-key-issues-to-watch-105495">Victoria election: the scandals, sloganeering and key issues to watch</a>
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<p>From the moment he won office in 2014, Daniel Andrews styled himself as an assertive and activist premier. This has been exemplified by an ambitious infrastructure agenda, but also a willingness to barge his way through <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/police-red-shirts-probe-has-been-undermined-from-within-insider-says-20181121-p50hg0.html">controversies</a> unapologetically.</p>
<p>Andrews’ buttoned-up Clark Kent like exterior has also belied an adventurism on social reform highlighted by Victoria becoming the first Australian state to <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-better-understand-victorias-assisted-dying-laws-these-five-articles-will-help-88310">legalise voluntary assisted dying</a> and other initiatives such as embarking on negotiating a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-treaty-with-indigenous-peoples-must-address-vexed-questions-of-sovereignty-98758">treaty with the local Indigenous community</a>.</p>
<p>Lacking the every-man touch of Bracks, Andrews has never seemed especially fussed about courting popularity and has mostly eschewed media contrivances to leaven his image. Neither has he sought to disguise that he is unambiguously a creature of the Labor Party, nor camouflaged his government’s closeness to the trade union movement.</p>
<p>Only last month, Andrews boldly marched at the head of an ACTU-organised rally in support of strengthened industrial rights and improved conditions for workers. On Saturday night, he made a conspicuous point of thanking the labour movement in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/wipeout-for-the-liberals-as-andrews-surges-to-victory-on-huge-red-wave-20181124-p50i53.html">his victory speech</a>. All of this has inflamed his detractors (not least News Limited’s Herald Sun), yet Andrews has remained defiantly unmoved.</p>
<p>Arguably, there is a risk in this audacity that might grow greater with Andrews emboldened by winning a second term. And there remains a danger that, despite Labor’s expansive infrastructure program, his government will be overwhelmed by Melbourne’s exponential growth and the enormous strains this is placing on services.</p>
<p>For now, though, one cannot deny Andrews’ achievement. Pledged to serve another four years, he is on track to become the state’s second longest-serving Labor premier and he has bequeathed his party a victory so sweeping it should guarantee two further terms.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Party, this is an abject result. It rubs salt into the wounds of the Coalition’s <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2014/Summary.html">first-term defeat in 2014</a>. Twice in Labor’s era of dominance of the past four decades, the Liberals have squandered office.</p>
<p>A combination of policy inertia and ill-discipline sowed the seeds of the premature fall of the Ted Baillieu-Denis Napthine government in 2014, while in 1999 Jeff Kennett’s tenure was cut short by hubris and insensitivity to rural and regional Victoria that paved the way for an 11-year Labor reign under Bracks and John Brumby.</p>
<p>For the second state election in succession, the Victorian Liberals have also been handicapped by the actions of their federal counterparts. When Victorians voted in 2014, the politically poisonous first budget of Tony Abbott’s government was still exercising their minds, while on this occasion there was the backdrop of the upheaval surrounding Malcolm Turnbull’s deposal as prime minister.</p>
<p>But this result shows the Liberals’ difficulties in Victoria run far deeper to matters of identity and philosophy (and organisation). Though Matthew Guy gestured towards broadening his election pitch through decentralisation policies, everything in the Liberal campaign was ultimately dwarfed by a muscular, conservative law and order agenda.</p>
<p>It was both narrow and discordant in a community of progressive sensibility, and one that is defined by complexity and diversity. It is a community where, for example, there are electorates in which greater than 50% of people were born in non-English speaking countries, electorates where more than 30% of the population are of Muslim faith, and electorates where nearly 50% have no religion. The contemporary Liberal Party appears bereft of a vocabulary to speak to this pluralism.</p>
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<span class="caption">Liberal leader Matthew Guy concedes defeat on Saturday night.</span>
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<p>This problem of being out of step with the nation’s second largest and fastest growing state besets the Liberal Party federally as well. Yet Scott Morrison and many of his colleagues have shown scant evidence of recognising, let alone addressing, this dilemma.</p>
<p>Instead, they seem intent on appealing to a Queensland-focused “base”. The cost of this hewing to the right and what it potentially augurs for next year’s federal election in Victoria is now plain to see.</p>
<p>In a more immediate sense, there is a serious chance the Morrison government will be further destabilised by the recriminations flowing from this result. It is likely to deepen the divide in Liberal ranks between those who appear hell-bent on remaking the party in their own conservative self-image regardless of electoral consequences and those who understand that this is folly.</p>
<p>Lastly, what of the Greens? Since 2002, the Greens have stalked Labor in its once traditional heartland in Melbourne’s inner city. Buoyed by a heady triumph in the Northcote by-election 12 months ago, the Greens looked forward to this contest convinced they were on an irresistible forward march.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-greens-set-to-be-tested-on-a-number-of-fronts-in-the-victorian-election-105857">The Greens set to be tested on a number of fronts in the Victorian election</a>
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<p>That optimism was dented by defeat in the federal byelection in Batman in March. Now, after an unhappy campaign during which the party became mired in controversy over its culture towards women and struggled for traction against a progressive-credentialed government, the Greens have lost ground. Some experienced observers are speculating that we have witnessed “peak Green”.</p>
<p>That is probably premature. Yet, for Labor, the sullying of their tormentor’s image and disruption of their momentum is icing on its glorious election victory cake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Strangio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Daniel Andrews’ resounding win has probably secured his party another two terms- and it will send chills down the spines of Liberals in Canberra.Paul Strangio, Associate Professor of Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/871682017-11-14T07:16:20Z2017-11-14T07:16:20ZFour reasons Victorian MPs say ‘no’ to assisted dying, and why they’re misleading<p>Victoria’s upper house has <a>resumed its debate</a> on the <a href="http://www.legislation.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/LDMS/PubPDocs.nsf/ee665e366dcb6cb0ca256da400837f6b/d162e1f2fcc3f7c3ca2581a1007a8903!OpenDocument">Voluntary Assisted Dying bill</a>. The bill is now at the committee stage and a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-14/euthanasia-laws-likely-to-pass-in-victoria/9148928">vote is expected</a> as soon as Thursday (it needs 21 votes to pass).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"926312738296537089"}"></div></p>
<p>At the conclusion of its last sitting, the Legislative Council voted 22:18 in favour of the legislation. Of the 18 members who voted “no”, 15 gave speeches articulating reasons for their view. We examined those speeches and identified four major themes. These were: the bill doesn’t have adequate safeguards to protect the vulnerable; legalising assisted dying presents a slippery slope; palliative care services must be improved first; and a doctor’s duty is to treat, not to kill.</p>
<p>Some of these arguments are misleading and they all require close scrutiny.</p>
<h2>1. Insufficient safeguards</h2>
<p>The most frequently cited reason for opposing the bill was the inability of safeguards to adequately protect the vulnerable. Liberal Bernie Finn <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">expressed concern</a> that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is no regard to treatable depression or other mental illness that may be driving a request to seek suicide, so long as the patient has decision-making
capacity. […]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Rachel Carling-Jenkins of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">noted the bill</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] has no detail on how an assessing doctor will satisfy themselves that the person has informed consent in the regime. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>And the Liberal David McLean Davis <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">said he was voting against the bill</a> as it didn’t adequately address issues of “pressure and duress”. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] I am very concerned that there will be those who seek to inherit,
those who seek to take advantage of a vulnerable person.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Concerns that vulnerable people are at risk under such laws have been rejected in top peer-reviewed journals such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22789501">The Lancet</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17494928">New England Journal of Medicine</a> as well as by the <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/bc/bcsc/doc/2012/2012bcsc886/2012bcsc886.html">Canadian courts</a>, who have <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/14637/index.do">cross-examined evidence</a> testing the findings of this research. Justice Smith of the Supreme Court of British Columbia concluded that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the empirical evidence gathered in the two jurisdictions [Netherlands and Oregon] does not support the hypothesis that physician-assisted death has imposed a particular risk to socially vulnerable populations. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Further, the Victorian bill does address “treatable depression” in the sense that a person can only access assisted dying if they are assessed to have mental capacity to make the decision. If the doctor is unsure about this – for example because of the patient’s depression – the doctor must refer the person to a health professional with appropriate skills to assess capacity. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-may-soon-have-assisted-dying-laws-for-terminally-ill-patients-81401">Victoria may soon have assisted dying laws for terminally ill patients</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The concern about doctors not being confident of informed consent is also surprising. As part of everyday practice, doctors are aware of their legal obligation to inform patients about treatment, and the need to obtain consent for it. The bill also contains a detailed list of information that must be provided to someone seeking assistance including the person’s diagnosis and prognosis, possible treatment options, palliative care options, the potential risks of taking the substance and the expected outcome of doing so.</p>
<h2>2. The slippery slope</h2>
<p>The slippery slope argument contends that even though the Victorian model is currently a conservative one, that doesn’t mean it won’t evolve over time. Labor’s Nazih Elasmar <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Friday_3_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">argued that</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] it has been the norm for euthanasia laws to become increasingly permissive […] The Netherlands and Belgium are perfect examples. Euthanasia laws in the Netherlands now apply to children as young as 12, while in Belgium there is no age limit.“</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But this argument is also misleading. The Victorian bill is modelled on the <a href="http://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/PROVIDERPARTNERRESOURCES/EVALUATIONRESEARCH/DEATHWITHDIGNITYACT/Pages/faqs.aspx">Oregon Death with Dignity Act</a> which has not been amended since it was enacted 20 years ago. It is disingenuous to suggest a broadening of the law is the "norm”. In this regard, the Netherlands and Belgium are not “perfect examples”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-places-where-its-legal-how-many-people-are-ending-their-lives-using-euthanasia-73755">In places where it's legal, how many people are ending their lives using euthanasia?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Palliative care should improve instead</h2>
<p>In terms of palliative care, there were two inter-related arguments. First, that we should be focusing on increased funding to palliative care to widen its reach, instead of introducing assisted dying. </p>
<p>Liberal Joshua Morris <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">stated that</a> for “palliative care not to be appropriately funded in our state […] is nothing short of shameful” and that provision of palliative care “must be in place before a bill of this type is considered”.</p>
<p>The second argument is that offering people assisted dying but not palliative care, as <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">Labor’s Daniel Mulino said</a>, “is not a real choice”. </p>
<p>But access to assistance in dying is a separate and distinct issue. Chair of Victoria’s advisory panel for the assisted dying legislation, Professor Brian Owler, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/national-press-club/2017-10-13/national-press-club:-brian-owler/9047378">has said</a> palliative care is the “main game” when treating patients approaching the end of their lives. This will always remain so. </p>
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<p>Funding for palliative care should be increased so that palliative care services are available to all who need it. The government can, at the same time, increase funding for palliative care and pass legislation allowing assistance to die. We are advocates for palliative care and would welcome that outcome.</p>
<p>As for the issue of choice, it makes no sense to suggest an otherwise eligible person should not have assistance to die because he or she does not have access to palliative care. The proponents of this argument are effectively saying it is better to have no options rather than one option at the end of life, which cannot be right.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/assisted-dying-is-one-thing-but-governments-must-ensure-palliative-care-is-available-to-all-who-need-it-86131">Assisted dying is one thing, but governments must ensure palliative care is available to all who need it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Doctors should do no harm</h2>
<p>This argument holds that an assisted dying bill will <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Thursday_2_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">undermine the nature of the doctor-patient relationship</a>, which is based on trust. Arguments in this theme also contend assisting patients to die is the very antithesis of what doctors do. Nazih Elasmar <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/daily-hansard/Council_2017/Council_Daily_Extract_Friday_3_November_2017_from_Book_18.pdf">referred to the Hippocratic oath</a>, noting that it says “first, do no harm”.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that for a person to be eligible for assisted dying under the Victorian bill, the time of healing has passed. The person is terminally ill and will inevitably die. </p>
<p>Secondly, many in our community including health professionals do not regard assisted dying as a “harm”. A recent <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/vic/VCAT/2016/2150.html?stem=0&synonyms=0&query=health%20or%20doctor%20or%20nurse%20or%20hospital%20or%20clinic%20or%20surgeon%20or%20dentist%20or%20psychologist%20or%20clinic">Tribunal decision</a> has accepted this view. </p>
<p>What counts as harm depends on context. For example, we do not normally think surgeons are violating the Hippocratic oath when they cut into our skin during life-saving surgery, yet cutting into our skin is a form of harm. We accept this harm because it is outweighed by the fact the surgery is life-saving. We can similarly argue helping people die more comfortably is not a form of harm, but is actually a benefit. </p>
<p>Thirdly, it is important to acknowledge that every day doctors, patients and families make decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment that will result in a patient’s death. Pain relief is also provided knowing this can accelerate death. These actions are not thought to undermine the doctor-patient relationship.</p>
<p>As the debate over the bill continues in Victoria’s Legislative Council, we repeat our <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-victorian-mps-debate-assisted-dying-it-is-vital-they-examine-the-evidence-not-just-the-rhetoric-84195">earlier call</a> that all MPs interrogate their positions, including the biases that underpin them, to be intellectually rigorous. Debates must be being based on reliable evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lindy Willmott receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council for research into law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. She is also a board member of Palliative Care Australia. The views expressed are her personal views and not necessarily views of the organisation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben White receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council for research into law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew McGee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The main arguments used by those who voted against assisted dying – including that the bill has insufficient safeguards – in Victoria’s upper house, deserve further scrutiny.Lindy Willmott, Professor of Law and Director, Australian Centre for Health Law Research, Queensland University of TechnologyAndrew McGee, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Queensland University of TechnologyBen White, Professor of Law and Director, Australian Centre for Health Law Research, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/856842017-10-18T19:19:03Z2017-10-18T19:19:03ZIs Victoria’s sentencing regime really more lenient?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/190339/original/file-20171016-21977-19uk8ow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For all offences in the higher courts, the proportion of Victorians sent to prison is actually higher than the national average.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2017/41.html">recent High Court decision</a> surrounding the adequacy of a sentence handed down in an incest case <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/victorias-sentencing-for-serious-crimes-far-too-lenient/9040488">has sparked debate</a> over whether Victoria’s sentencing regime is too lenient.</p>
<p>The state’s Victims of Crime Commissioner, Greg Davies, argued the decision confirmed sentencing in Victoria had “lost its way”. Shadow Attorney-General John Pesutto promised the opposition would, if elected next year, introduce mandatory minimum sentences for certain serious offences – a call Sentencing Advisory Council chair Arie Freiberg rejected.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/top-judge-dpp-in-row-over-crime-sentencing/news-story/2767b02ec0755316550c085b4e3f78e6">media reporting</a> that followed claimed Victorian prosecutors had for years despaired at the lax sentences handed to some of the state’s worst criminals. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/criminals-face-softer-prison-sentences-in-victoria/news-story/560a948dccfd944611c09e7ff1d3f8f2">One article</a> asserted that Victoria “is the joint lowest incarcerator of serious criminals”.</p>
<h2>The case</h2>
<p>The case on which the High Court recently handed down its decision involved two charges of incest, one act of sexual penetration of a child under 16, and one act of indecent assault.</p>
<p>At the time of the offending, the victims were aged nine to 13 and 15 to 16. They are sisters, and their mother was in a relationship with the offender at the time of offending. As a result of the offences one of the victims fell pregnant, and the pregnancy was later terminated. </p>
<p>In relation to this charge, the sentencing judge sentenced the man to three-and-a-half years’ imprisonment. The total sentence imposed by Victoria’s County Court was five-and-a-half years, with a non-parole period of three years. </p>
<p>The state’s Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) appealed to the Court of Appeal, arguing the sentence was inadequate. The Court of Appeal <a href="http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VSCA/2016/148.html">agreed that</a> current sentencing practices for incest are “demonstrably inadequate” and “devalue the objective gravity of the offence”.</p>
<p>The Court of Appeal went on to say that judges should adjust sentences upwards, but said it was constrained in the case by current sentencing practice. Accordingly, it dismissed the DPP’s appeal.</p>
<p>The DPP then appealed to the High Court, which unanimously allowed the appeal and ordered that the matter be returned to the Victorian Court of Appeal for resentencing. The High Court <a href="http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2017/41.html">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… sexual abuse of children by those in authority over them has been revealed as a most serious blight on society. The courts have developed … an awareness of the violence necessarily involved in the sexual penetration of a child, and of the devastating consequences of this kind of crime for its victims.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The High Court argued that the Court of Appeal had placed too much weight on current sentencing practices, and should instead have corrected the injustice it identified.</p>
<h2>Is Victoria really so lenient?</h2>
<p>Victoria <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4512.0June%20Quarter%202017?OpenDocument">does have</a> one of the lowest imprisonment rates in Australia, together with Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. The reasons for this are complex and <a href="http://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/files/9978875/P_S_Australia_VERSION2.pdf">stretch back to the 1880s</a>.</p>
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<p>However, the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/0/62E9BAFF94DAD459CA2568A9001393FE?Opendocument">court data for 2015-16</a> indicates that 64% of defendants convicted of sex offences in the Victorian higher courts (the County and Supreme Court) were sent to prison, compared with 68% nationally. </p>
<p>For <em>all</em> offences in the higher courts, the proportion of Victorians sent to prison is actually higher than the national average (70% versus 68%). </p>
<p>Consideration of the length of sentences imposed shows that the mean (average) and median (typical) sentence imposed for sex offences in the higher courts in Victoria in 2015-16 was 42 months. The national average was 44 months, with a national median sentence of 36 months. So, serious sex offenders in Victoria typically received a <em>longer</em> sentence than the national average.</p>
<p>For all offences in the higher courts (that is, all serious offences), the story is different: the average and typical sentences for Victoria were 38 and 24 months respectively, while the national figures were 38 and 30 months. This means that, while the typical sentence is shorter, the average sentence is the same for Victoria as the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>The same is true for sentences for sex offences imposed in all courts (including less serious sentences imposed in the magistrates’ courts).</p>
<h2>‘Getting tough’ and political choices</h2>
<p>Sentencing has many purposes. <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/vic/consol_act/sa1991121/s5.html">These include</a> just punishment for the offender, rehabilitation and deterrence. </p>
<p>Increasing the length of prison sentences <a href="https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Does%20Imprisonment%20Deter%20A%20Review%20of%20the%20Evidence.pdf">does not increase</a> their deterrent effect. Short prison sentences also have <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/CJB/Report-2015-Does-the-first-prison-sentence-reduce-the-risk-of-further-offending-cjb187.pdf">no greater deterrent effect</a> than comparable community orders. Overall, imprisonment rates are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">more related to</a> political choices than to crime rates.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-is-in-you-cant-link-imprisonment-to-crime-rates-40074">The evidence is in: you can’t link imprisonment to crime rates</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Governments across Australia have passed a range of reforms designed to “get tough” on sex offenders. However, national research <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/vic/num_act/sasa201734o2017438/">has shown</a> only minor differences in the key measures of public attitudes to sentencing across the country, despite the extensive differences in relation to sentencing. </p>
<p>This suggests that public (dis)satisfaction with the justice system is independent of actual sentencing policy and practice.</p>
<p>The consequences of sexual offences can be devastating for victims and society more generally. The High Court and parliaments have made it clear that sentencing practices for many of these offences have previously been inadequate. But an overriding focus on increasing sentences may not necessarily be the best means of redressing the harm caused.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85684/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorana Bartels receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She has previously received funding from the ACT Justice and Community Safety Directorate and Tasmanian Sentencing Advisory Council. She is affiliated with Prisoners' Aid ACT. </span></em></p>An overriding focus on increasing sentences may not necessarily be the best means of redressing the harm caused by sex offences.Lorana Bartels, Associate Professor and Head, School of Law and Justice, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/842652017-09-20T02:52:48Z2017-09-20T02:52:48ZVictoria gets serious on its political donations rules – now it’s the federal government’s turn<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186683/original/file-20170919-22691-1bdcijx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Andrews government's proposed reforms will significantly improve Victoria’s donations system.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mal Fairclough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-18/victoria-to-introduce-new-political-donation-reforms/8956102">has announced</a> a suite of reforms to the state’s political donations system. It includes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a cap on donations by individuals, unions and corporations of A$4,000 over a four-year parliamentary term;</p></li>
<li><p>public disclosure of donations above $1,000;</p></li>
<li><p>a ban on foreign donations; and </p></li>
<li><p>real-time disclosure of donations. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Harsh penalties will be imposed on those who breach the rules, with fines of up to $44,000 and two years in jail.</p>
<p>These proposals follow several dubious events, including Liberal Party fundraiser Barrie Macmillan <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/liberal-insiders-plot-to-deliver-donations-to-matthew-guy/8787118">allegedly seeking</a> to funnel donations from a mafia boss to the party after Opposition Leader Matthew Guy enjoyed a lobster dinner with the mafia leader. </p>
<p>According to Andrews, these changes are <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victoria-to-have-nations-strictest-donation-laws/">intended to</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… help put an end to individuals and corporations attempting to buy influence in Victorian politics.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Are these reforms good?</h2>
<p>The proposed reforms will significantly improve Victoria’s donations system. </p>
<p>The caps on donations will level the playing field and reduce the risk of corruption in the state’s political system. It will prevent rich donors from exerting greater influence over politicians than those who lack the means to do so. Parties will no longer be able to rely on these wealthy donors to fund their election campaigns. </p>
<p>The caps equally target individuals, unions and corporations, meaning that money cannot be channelled through shady corporate structures to evade the rules. However, donations can still be channelled through the federal level, where there are no caps. </p>
<p>Real-time disclosures, which have already been <a href="http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2017/2/23/palaszczuk-government-delivers-realtime-donation-disclosure">introduced in Queensland</a>, will improve the timeliness of disclosures. Combined with the lower disclosure threshold of $1,000, these are commendable steps towards enhancing transparency. </p>
<p>The move to ban foreign donations may face <a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-foreign-political-donations-wont-fix-all-that-ails-our-system-73908">constitutional issues</a>.</p>
<p>The tough penalties may deter people from breaching the rules. But proper enforcement by the Victorian Electoral Commission is still essential for the laws to be effective.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-foreign-political-donations-wont-fix-all-that-ails-our-system-73908">Banning foreign political donations won’t fix all that ails our system</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>How will elections be funded?</h2>
<p>Election campaigns are currently funded by a mix of public funding and private donations. As there will be caps on private donations, public funding of Victorian elections from taxpayers’ pockets will need to increase. </p>
<p>There will be debate as to the level of public funding that should be given. Public funding should adequately compensate parties, but not be overly generous or allow them to rort the system.</p>
<p>Detractors may argue that, in the age of social media, there may be cheaper ways for political parties to get their messages across, so less public funding would be needed. </p>
<p>It is tricky to work out how to allocate public funding between established political parties, minor parties and new parties. There is also a question of whether public funding should cover activities such as policy development and party administration.</p>
<p>But public funding is already part of Australia’s system. In the <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/2016/08/17/election-funding-payments-2016.html">2016 federal election</a>, $62.8 million of public funding was provided, which is about half of federal campaign costs.</p>
<p>Victoria’s move toward more public funding is not unprecedented. New South Wales <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/fd/political_donations">already has caps</a> on political donations of $5,800 per party and $2,500 for candidates, as well as a ban on donations from property developers and those in the tobacco, liquor and gambling industries. This was accompanied by an increase in public funding of elections, <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/why-we-need-full-public-funding-of-election-campaigns/">amounting to</a> about 80% of campaign costs.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-is-introducing-full-public-funding-of-major-political-parties-by-stealth-33028">NSW is introducing full public funding of major political parties – by stealth</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>In Europe and Canada, there are <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/why-we-need-full-public-funding-of-election-campaigns/">high levels</a> of public funding: between 50% and 90% of costs. </p>
<p>Another worry is that enterprising people and businesses might still circumvent the rules through creative means. </p>
<p>In the US, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-what-are-super-pacs-and-what-role-does-money-play-in-the-race-65559">super PACs</a> (political action committees) are special interest groups involved in fundraising and campaigning that are not officially affiliated with political parties. These groups can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, unions, associations and individuals, and then spend this money to overtly advocate for or against political candidates.</p>
<p>If this possibility is not regulated in Australian jurisdictions, then our system will remain broken. </p>
<h2>How can we improve our national system?</h2>
<p>Australia’s political donations system <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-our-political-donations-system-work-and-is-it-any-good-60159">remains fragmented</a>. Ideally, we would have a uniform system with tough rules at both the federal and state levels, so that donors cannot easily evade the rules by channelling their money through more lax jurisdictions. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-our-political-donations-system-work-and-is-it-any-good-60159">Explainer: how does our political donations system work – and is it any good?</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<p>The time is ripe for reform. A federal parliamentary committee is <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Political_Influence_of_Donations">looking into</a> how to improve the federal donations rules. The committee will issue its report by December 2017. </p>
<p>Victoria has thrown down the gauntlet – and it’s now time for the federal government to take heed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yee-Fui Ng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s political donations system remains fragmented, but proposed reforms in Victoria are a good step forward.Yee-Fui Ng, Lecturer, Graduate School of Business and Law, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/816712017-07-31T19:55:05Z2017-07-31T19:55:05ZVoluntary assisted dying is not a black-and-white issue for Christians – they can, in good faith, support it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/180312/original/file-20170731-19115-1fgemxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Religious opponents of assisted dying laws most often appeal to the sanctity of human life.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>Father, into your hands I commend my spirit. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to at least one <a href="https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Luke%2023:45-47&version=NRSV">early and authoritative account</a>, these were Jesus’s dying words. They are words that invite a question: what does it mean to commend a human life – indeed, one’s own life – to God? </p>
<p>As the Victorian parliament prepares to <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-may-soon-have-assisted-dying-laws-for-terminally-ill-patients-81401">debate legalising</a> voluntary assisted dying, Christians, like many others in the community, are having to wrestle with their own responses to this issue. While <a href="https://www.catholic.org.au/commission-documents/bishops-commission-for-health-community-service-1/535-euthanasia-a-pastoral-letter-1/file">some</a> <a href="http://socialissues.org.au/euthanasia/anglican_church/">parts</a> of the church have clearly and consistently voiced opposition, there are <a href="http://christiansforve.org.au">some</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-do-80-of-australians-and-up-to-70-of-catholics-and-anglicans-support-euthanasia-laws-76079">exceptions</a>. </p>
<p>Christians can, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1030570X17711957">in good faith and for good theological reasons</a>, land on either side of this debate. And while the Christian community has no right to monopolise the conversation, its long tradition of compassionate care for both the dying and the dead means it brings some wisdom and experience to this issue.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-may-soon-have-assisted-dying-laws-for-terminally-ill-patients-81401">Victoria may soon have assisted dying laws for terminally ill patients</a></strong></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Why the opposition?</h2>
<p>Religious opposition to assisted dying laws most often appeals to the sanctity of human life. This is the radical and sometimes counter-cultural affirmation that all human life, regardless of circumstance, is precious to and has dignity before God. </p>
<p>Such a conviction challenges the notion of privileged status for the rich or strong, and demands equity for the poor, disabled, sick, vulnerable and imprisoned. The law of the land both reflects and forms the ethos of a society. So, any change in legislation will inevitably and in subtle ways influence our attitude, for example, to the aged, the weak, and the fragile. </p>
<p>Many Christian traditions also believe God has given the state a vocation to protect the lives of all its citizens, and especially those of the most vulnerable among us. </p>
<p>And while few – if any – would express confidence that a state’s laws, however carefully constructed and policed, can handle the complexity of such a matter as voluntary assisted dying, that Australia does not (yet) have a bill of rights makes religious support for state-sponsored voluntary assisted dying even more precarious. </p>
<p>If this bill were to pass through Victoria’s parliament, even with all of the highest possible protections for vulnerable people against abuse or coercion, it still risks both communicating and promoting the mood that the sick and dying are an inconvenient burden on our community.</p>
<p>For such reasons, many people of faith, and of none, prefer the present messiness, even if it leaves those whose pain is unmanageable or who’d prefer to die at home under-served.</p>
<h2>Life is not its own end</h2>
<p>While affirming that human life is always sacred, the Christian tradition does not, however, make life its own end. To do so would be to make of life an idol. </p>
<p>Christians, therefore, have rarely argued that life ought to be preserved always and at any cost. For more than 2,000 years Christians have occasionally chosen to give up their lives for some other end. Martyrdom is one such example. Its power lies precisely in the dichotomy that life is precious but is being voluntarily given up for another purpose. </p>
<p>Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German pastor and theologian who opposed the Nazis’ death-championing policies, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1030570X17711957">argued that</a> one might legitimately choose to give up one’s life as an act of love for the other, and that choosing to do so might be an expression of our God-given freedom and responsibility.</p>
<p>Here we encounter the notion of responsibility and freedom in Christian thought. These notions apply as much to human dying as to living. </p>
<p>Making careful and faithful choices about dying is not necessarily “playing God” in a negative sense, but may be an expression of one’s risking to take seriously the freedom and responsibility given to human persons by God.</p>
<p>The decision to turn off a life-support machine, for example, or to refuse treatment, or to increase pain medication knowing it may hasten death, or to otherwise end one’s life, or to refuse medical intervention entirely and endure pain until the end time comes and pain is no more, may in each case represent a person’s faithful freedom and responsibility before God.</p>
<p>The first and final word of the Christian community, however, is not about the human’s faithful freedom and responsibility. Rather, it is about God, and about the way God, in Jesus Christ, has freely and lovingly undertaken ultimate responsibility for every human life. </p>
<p>Christian belief is that the grave – and indeed the ambiguity of life often met near the grave’s entrance – is not unfamiliar territory to God either. In life and in death, we belong to God.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81671/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Christianity’s long tradition of compassionate care for both the dying and the dead means it brings some wisdom and experience to the voluntary assisted dying issue.Robyn J. Whitaker, Bromby Lecturer in Biblical Studies, Trinity College; Lecturer, University of DivinityJason Goroncy, Senior Lecturer in Systematic Theology, Whitley College, University of DivinityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793312017-07-06T20:19:26Z2017-07-06T20:19:26ZImpending traffic chaos? Beware the problematic West Gate Tunnel forecasts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175529/original/file-20170626-4492-1ax2pci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An artist's impression of the new river crossing to be built as part of the West Gate Tunnel project.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/West-Gate-Tunnel-Project-Northen-tunnel-portal-NIGHT.jpg">Western Distributor Authority</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The recently released <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/ees/">environmental effects statement</a> and <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/eesdocuments/">transportation impact assessment</a> for the proposed <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel project</a> in Melbourne’s western and inner suburbs have once again sparked debate about the future of mobility in Australian cities, and the ability of large road projects to provide it.</p>
<p>In the environmental effects statement, the assumptions behind the models on the need for the tunnel might paint a gloomier picture of the future than is warranted. Many are not inevitable and are, in fact, within the control of the state government and Melburnians.</p>
<h2>Why we should be wary of the forecasts</h2>
<p>The figures in the transport impact assessment are calculated using a traditional four-step model. </p>
<p>Given the purpose to which the model has been put in this case, it is unsurprising that it predicts traffic chaos across metropolitan Melbourne in 2031. Also unsurprisingly, the modelling indicates that the West Gate Tunnel would ease this chaos. </p>
<p>Comparing the “build” and “no-build” scenarios, both set in 2031, 28,000 fewer vehicles per day would use the congested West Gate Bridge if the tunnel is built. As it is designed to, the modelling presents a clear argument to build the tunnel.</p>
<p>There are numerous reasons to be suspicious of the modelled outcomes. For one, these models are notoriously unreliable. </p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9497-y">Research shows</a> that half of road project forecasts are incorrect by more than plus or minus 20% after one year of operation. And for toll roads like the proposed West Gate Tunnel, the average observed error is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-009-9199-7">23% fewer vehicles</a> using the road than forecast. </p>
<p>Second, the extra 28,000 vehicles on the West Gate Bridge in the no-build case are not real cars; they are artefacts of the transport network assumptions. These assumptions feed into the models to create the build and no-build scenarios. </p>
<p>The models predict a 48% increase in road traffic in 2031 and a 100% increase in public transport traffic. The transport impact assessment is relatively silent on the implications of this assumption about public transport patronage.</p>
<h2>Cases built on pessimism bias</h2>
<p>Studies indicate this 48% increase might be subject to <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2010.534569">“pessimism bias”</a> – that is, a tendency to imagine the worst. A <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X14002054">2015 analysis</a> found that in 70% of 35 transportation projects in Denmark and England actual travel demand did not reach the end-of-period forecast levels when the projects were not constructed.</p>
<p>Pessimism bias is a product of how the models understand historical road construction and traffic growth. It is likely present in the West Gate Tunnel proposal – but this cannot be measured as yet. </p>
<p>The 2031 build and no-build cases both incorporate an extensive program of road network construction and expansion apart from the tunnel, which is standard practice. This includes 100 kilometres of additional motorway lanes in the CityLink and Western Ring Road widening projects. Both roads feed into the tunnel. </p>
<p>VicRoads’ <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/planning-and-projects/melbourne-road-projects/outer-suburban-arterial-roads">outer suburban arterial roads</a> program includes an additional 700km of arterial roads, which feed into Melbourne’s greater road network. If these roads are not all built then the forecast will be incorrect.</p>
<p>Also, the annual traffic growth rates used in the models are primarily based on historical observation. From 1996 to 2016, traffic volumes across Melbourne grew by 2.6% annually. The model assumes this growth will continue. </p>
<p>This period of growth includes the construction of the EastLink and Peninsula Link toll roads and several outer suburban arterial roads. Because the construction of roads promotes new traffic, these programs partly explain the growth from 1996 to 2016. </p>
<h2>Consider the alternatives</h2>
<p>The “need” for the tunnel exists only because of the presence of extra road and motorway capacity in the modelling assumptions – and because of the absence of any estimates of the effect on car travel of improved public transport passenger and freight transport alternatives in Melbourne’s rapidly expanding western suburbs.</p>
<p>The package of roads that will generate traffic growth on the West Gate Bridge and in the proposed tunnel have not yet been built, and there is nothing inevitable about any of it. Melbourne’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-east-west-link-is-dead-a-victory-for-21st-century-thinking-34914">East-West Link</a> and Perth’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/roe-8-perths-environmental-flashpoint-in-the-wa-election-74155">Roe 8</a> both demonstrate that public resistance is not necessarily futile. </p>
<p>The government and Melburnians have a choice about how we build our cities. We can perpetuate the “need” for roads by continuing to build banal infrastructure, such as large suburban arterials or <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837716306937">excessive car parking</a>. This would create the conditions for roads like the West Gate Tunnel – or we could insist on something better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79331/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from the Australian Research Council, AHURI, and from state and local government agencies. He is a member of the PTUA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Pittman and Sophie Sturup do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Melbourne’s proposed road project relies on assumptions that inflate estimates of the traffic the new link will carry – but other choices about the future of transport are open to us.Nathan Pittman, PhD Candidate in Transportation Planning, The University of MelbourneJohn Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneSophie Sturup, Lecturer in Urban Planning and Design, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/802032017-06-29T20:13:35Z2017-06-29T20:13:35ZAirport rail link can open up new possibilities for the rest of Melbourne<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/176143/original/file-20170628-1904-182blr9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull has made clear his apparent enthusiasm for a rail line to Melbourne Airport – with or without state government support.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Melburnians have been talking about a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/wait-for-train-to-tullamarine-now-55-years-20121230-2c1c1.html">train to Tullamarine Airport</a> since well before it opened. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has made clear his enthusiasm for an <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiGkr_squLUAhWDXLwKHT4fC3gQqUMIKDAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fmelbourne-airport-rail-link-may-be-built-without-victorian-funding%2Fnews-story%2F2ef855853e494fc9fbd6261611a48085&usg=AFQjCNFDRAYD7hlo0NmWHwvsN0zEZAu0Xg">airport rail line</a>, with or without state government support.</p>
<p>But these conversations need to move beyond the question of getting travellers between their plane and their city hotel.</p>
<p>Beyond airport access, this proposal highlights the potential for rail projects to shape Melbourne and feed an integrated public transport system that could serve its growing population.</p>
<h2>How railways shape our cities</h2>
<p>Transport investment shapes cities, but different modes <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Transport-Planning-2nd-Edition/Banister/p/book/9780415261722">have diverse effects</a>.</p>
<p>Freeways, tollways and arterial roads (used by cars, taxis, ride-sharing services and buses, as well as trucks) encourage cities to extend horizontally at low densities. Rail-based modes (trams, light rail and trains, both passenger and freight) encourage <a href="https://islandpress.org/book/the-transit-metropolis">intensification of corridors and centres</a>.</p>
<p>Melbourne has concentrated most of its post-war transport investment on road-based transport. It has done very little to extend the enormous rail-based legacy of trams and trains built during the first century of European settlement. This is despite transport plans that proposed <a href="http://www.hawthorntramdepot.org.au/papers/gs1923.htm">doubling the tramway system</a> in 1923, and adding <a href="https://library.intranet.vic.gov.au/client/search/asset/1286832">several new railway lines</a> – including to Doncaster, Rowville, and between Dandenong and Frankston. </p>
<p>Until 2015, the only major investment in suburban rail since the 1950s was the City Loop, which opened in 1981 after a decade of construction. </p>
<p>The City Loop’s clear legacy has been the transformation of Melbourne’s CBD into one of the highest-density mixed-use precincts in Australia. This has driven some of the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/C508DD213FD43EA7CA258148000C6BBE?OpenDocument">fastest growth in residential population</a> anywhere in the country. </p>
<p>The demonstrated desirability of apartment living in urban centres, driven by the accessibility delivered by metro-quality public transport, shows how investment in rail-based transport can reshape cities. While many have advocated this for decades, the precedents have primarily been European or North American. </p>
<p>Australians now have homegrown experience of what transit-oriented urbanism could mean. Sydney has many examples of substantial rail-based suburban intensification. Centres such as Chatswood, Bondi Junction, St Leonards, Strathfield and Wolli Creek (close to Sydney Airport) offer insight into opportunities for Melbourne and elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Airport rail can give structure to city’s growing west</h2>
<p>A 25-minute metro journey from Melbourne’s Southern Cross station to the airport via Maribyrnong would appear time-competitive with the profitable and popular <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/skybus-fares-hit-new-high-as-company-jacks-up-price-of-ticket-to-melbourne-airport-20160322-gnonk6.html">SkyBus service</a>. </p>
<p>However, unlike SkyBus, rail has the potential to fundamentally reshape Melbourne’s northwestern corridor.</p>
<p>A metro line to the airport east of the currently favoured Albion corridor could realise the considerable intensification potential of many sites along its route. This is no bad thing. Melbourne’s population is projected to rise to <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/14036/Victoria-in-Future-2016-FINAL-web.pdf">8 million by 2051</a>, with disproportionate growth in the western suburbs.</p>
<p>Although exact alignments are up for grabs, significant urban renewal potential exists at Flemington, Footscray, Highpoint, the former Maribyrnong Defence site, Essendon Fields, Airport West, Tullamarine, and at the airport itself. </p>
<p>By directly investing in rail infrastructure, the federal government would reap the benefits of the land it owns and unlock the potential of many other locations. This is what integrating public transport and land-use planning looks like. And the urban outcome is vastly different from the current paradigm of road-driven transport and land-use planning.</p>
<h2>Realising the full potential of an integrated transport system</h2>
<p>A rail link won’t provide for all of the access demands for travel to and from the airport. </p>
<p>For that to occur, a comprehensive <a href="https://www.ptua.org.au/policy/network/">multi-modal network</a> solution that serves a much wider catchment is needed. There will always be people living beyond an easy stroll to a train station. Their needs can only be met by a radical rethink of Melbourne’s buses in addition to rail-based investment. </p>
<p>However, the latest proposal offers alternative ways to think about long-promised rail lines – such as Doncaster and Rowville – as part of a network, linking intensified suburban centres. </p>
<p>Some lines have the ability to do what Infrastructure Victoria <a href="http://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/node/78">has recommended</a> to increase development densities in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, using light rail. For example, connecting Doncaster to the suburbs to its south and east, as well as its west, will provide great potential for intensification. </p>
<p>For Rowville, a light rail to Gardenvale will provide better public transport integration while maximising intensification potential.</p>
<p>Other comparable cities are realising the most effective combinations of public transport and land-use investment with light rail. In Montreal, Canada, the Quebec Pension Fund is investing in <a href="https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/Reseau_electrique_metropolitain">67 kilometres of driverless light rail</a>. This will link the city’s airport with urban redevelopment zones and existing metro lines to create a city-wide multi-modal network.</p>
<p>In Melbourne, thinking about the city-shaping potential of rail-based transport should focus minds on the priority to <a href="http://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/node/77">plan and build Melbourne Metro 2</a>. This would provide a tunnel between Clifton Hill and Newport, creating a cross-town metro from Wyndham Vale to Mernda via Fishermans Bend, which is currently bereft of quality public transport. </p>
<p>Melbourne Metro 2 would also improve the chances that <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/new-suburb-in-melbournes-west-given-the-nod-as-winning-bidder-selected-20151105-gkre9i.html">Werribee East</a> can realise its potential.</p>
<p>Turnbull is to be congratulated for his reported support for airport rail. But we should be wary of losing sight of the wood for the trees – or, more accurately, the network for the line. </p>
<p>Victoria urgently needs a transport plan premised on integrated public transport and land-use planning. Only then might it work toward a liveable city for 8 million people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock has worked on independent academic research funded by the Australia Research Council, the Victorian State Government, various local governments and private sector design firms since 2007. He is affiliated with the Victorian Transport Action Group, the Inner Melbourne Planning Alliance, the Public Transport Users Association and The Moreland Civics Lab. He convenes the Planning and Transport in City Regions Program in the Centre for Urban Research at RMIT University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Lawrie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A rail link is a big step towards transforming transport access and land use in ways that will enable a much bigger city to remain liveable. And Melbourne can learn from Sydney about this.Ian Woodcock, Lecturer, School of Global, Urban & Social Studies, RMIT UniversityIain Lawrie, Sessional Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/789852017-06-07T08:22:10Z2017-06-07T08:22:10ZTougher national parole laws won’t end the violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172660/original/file-20170607-5692-1c2w9pq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Police speak with members of the public outside the Buckingham Serviced Apartments in Brighton, Melbourne, following the violent attack on Monday night.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sadly, another horrific episode under the banner of Islamist extremism is front-page news. This time the perpetrator was a 29-year-old Somali-born Victorian man, Yacqub Khayre, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/terror/yacqub-khayre-weakling-deserter-and-a-jihadi-of-convenience/news-story/344e956682e008114482811a56855e45">described as</a> a “weakling, deserter and a jihadi of convenience”. </p>
<p>On Monday, armed with a sawn-off shotgun and having removed his electronic monitoring bracelet, he killed a newlywed father and engaged in a suicidal shoot-out with police.</p>
<p>It transpires that Khayre was on parole, granted in November 2016 after he had served four years of a 5½-year sentence for an aggravated burglary committed while on the drug ice. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was incredulous. “How was he on parole?” he asked. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was equally outraged.</p>
<p>Is there a case for an overhaul of nationwide parole laws? At the outset, we need to note the limited role that the Commonwealth government can play, as only a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/4512.0December%20quarter%202016?OpenDocument">tiny proportion</a> of Australia’s prisoners are incarcerated for federal offences. So, a nationally consistent parole system is unlikely, indeed unrealistic, given that the states and territories each manage their respective sentencing and corrections legislative regimes.</p>
<p>Moreover, as much as we might find this difficult to concede in the light of recent events, lone-actor, grievance-fuelled violence cannot be solved simply by tightening justice processes. </p>
<p>Numerous factors played a role in the catastrophic chain of events last Monday night. The granting of parole to Khayre last November did not cause the horror, but simply located it in a specific time and place. </p>
<p>According to media reports, Khayre’s life in Australia began as a child refugee in the company of his grandparent. He had experienced a steep downhill trajectory in the last decade, muddied by drug addiction, multiple acts of criminality, and consequent alienation from his friends and community.</p>
<p>In 2013, retired High Court judge Ian Callinan made <a href="http://www.westlaw.com.au/maf/wlau/app/document?docguid=I74e1eb55557e11e38fa3f057ed117a82&isTocNav=true&tocDs=AUNZ_AU_JOURNALS_TOC&startChunk=1&endChunk=1">23 recommendations to the Victorian government</a> following the September 2012 murder of Jill Meagher by parolee Adrian Ernest Bayley. Almost all were accepted.</p>
<p>Since the <a href="http://www.corrections.vic.gov.au/utility/publications+manuals+and+statistics/review+of+the+parole+system+in+victoria">Callinan report</a> was received, the Victorian parliament has passed ten acts and amendments to legislation that have modified the parole system.</p>
<p>The changes include: better resourcing for the Parole Board; increasing the number of correctional staff and decreasing their caseloads; improved risk assessment tools; better information-sharing across agencies; better communications with victims; a second tier of review for parole decisions on serious offenders; making breach of parole a new offence.</p>
<p>It would be hard to imagine that much more could be done, although better liaison between intelligence agencies and parole boards is hard to argue against.</p>
<p>There is also a downside for any jurisdiction that takes a hardline approach. The longer people are held behind bars, the more likely it becomes that their grievances will grow.</p>
<p>Moreover, their contacts with other aggrieved prisoners will spread, while their associations with those who might moderate their warped zeal will be silenced. If we are serious about community engagement as a valuable tool in preventing radicalisation, we must acknowledge the limitations of long prison sentences.</p>
<p>There are other potential adverse consequences, too. A <a href="https://www.ombudsman.vic.gov.au/getattachment/8a800602-94a5-4e7b-9e7b-5c930bfe7b8f">2015 report</a> by the Victorian Ombudsman found that the recent increase in prisoner numbers – due in part to changes in parole – had reduced access to programs aimed at reducing recidivism.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/CJB/cjb178.pdf">Research from New South Wales</a> has demonstrated that more than seven out of ten parolees do not commit any further offences while on parole. Only 7% of parolees commit a violent offence. In addition, offenders supervised on parole <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/parolesupervisionandreoffending.pdf">are less likely to offend</a> than comparable offenders who were not supervised. </p>
<p>Finally, it <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/curing-our-addiction-to-prison-20160421-gobl0h.html">has been shown</a> that keeping people in prison past a certain point is more likely to cause crime than prevent it. Indeed, every dollar spent on prisons is a dollar that is not spent on the <a href="http://insight.vcoss.org.au/reducing-crime-by-investing-in-communities/">very things that prevent crime</a>: housing, education, mental health, and drug treatments.</p>
<p>The word “parole” comes from the French term for a person who gives their word that they can be trusted to serve the last portion of their sentence beyond prison walls. </p>
<p>Determining who can be trusted, and who cannot, is a task that even those who profess the most informed foresight and wisdom cannot easily master. All we can hope for is that <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/national-approach-to-counter-terrorism-to-keep-us-safe/">increased information-sharing</a> between federal and state/territory intelligence agencies and justice operatives will improve decision-making. </p>
<p>One strategy might be to give all convicted persons who have ever espoused an extremist view longer sentences, with no chance of parole. But we need to accept, for the above reasons, that such a policy is not the panacea that we are so desperately seeking. </p>
<p>In any event, a <a href="http://www.westlaw.com.au/maf/wlau/app/document?docguid=I5cfa8c7db06811e6b606e78a75e9f1e9&tocDs=AUNZ_AU_JOURNALS_TOC&isTocNav=true&startChunk=1&endChunk=1">recent survey</a> of 1,200 Australians found that 68% of them agreed that society has an obligation to assist a person’s re-entry into the community following a prison sentence. And 82% agreed that we should:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… spend more money funding effective prison-based education and treatment programs so that people leaving prisons do not commit new offences.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the light of recent events, we could be excused for demanding something more than the status quo. But that something needs to be able to deliver the outcome desired. On current evidence, uncompromising national parole laws would not achieve that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Sarre receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Criminology Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorana Bartels receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with Prisoners Aid ACT. </span></em></p>As difficult as it is to concede, lone-actor, grievance-fuelled violence cannot be solved simply by tightening justice processes.Rick Sarre, Professor of Law, University of South AustraliaLorana Bartels, Associate Professor and Head, School of Law and Justice, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/773272017-05-19T01:58:57Z2017-05-19T01:58:57ZThe Victorian firefighter dispute comes to a resolution, but for how long?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170046/original/file-20170519-12260-11xmwae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Under the proposed reforms, the CFA will become a volunteer-only organisation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In announcing his proposed <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/modern-fire-services-for-a-safer-victoria/">fire service restructure</a>, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will be hoping he has finally put an end to the state’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-victorian-governments-dispute-with-the-cfa-about-and-how-will-it-affect-the-election-61631">bitter firefighter dispute</a>. </p>
<p>Two new fire services are to be created. One will be focused on urban areas and staffed by paid, professional firefighters; the other will be focused on non-urban areas with its firefighters drawn from volunteers only. </p>
<p>The model works well in New South Wales and tackles several structural problems that have bedevilled Victoria’s fire services for decades. </p>
<p>The Country Fire Authority is designated as a volunteer service, yet it employs 1,200 paid firefighters. It is a rural fire service, yet its boundaries include 60% of the Melbourne metropolitan population and roughly half of Melbourne’s suburbs as well as large non-metropolitan urban centres such as Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.</p>
<p>These odd arrangements play out in awkward ways, particularly in the 35 integrated fire stations in which volunteers and paid firefighters work in tandem. These stations are typically in urban and increasingly densely populated locations. </p>
<p>During fires, paid and highly trained firefighters can find themselves reporting to volunteers, of vastly different levels of skill, training and experience. That doesn’t sound sensible when lives and homes are on the line.</p>
<p>These tricky problems were at the heart of the high profile battle between the Country Fire Authority, the United Firefighters Union and the Volunteer Fire Brigades over a new enterprise agreement that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-22/bitter-cfa-dispute-could-claim-federal-labor-scalps/7533338">came to a head</a> during last year’s federal election. </p>
<p>The United Firefighters Union was pushing for a new agreement that would give paid firefighters much greater control over the way emergencies are handled – a proposal that was being bitterly resisted by management and the volunteers. The former bristled at losing control, and the latter felt like they were being treated like second-class citizens within a service that was meant to be for them.</p>
<p>After Andrews belatedly backed the union, Labor’s emergency services minister, Jane Garrett, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/emergency-services-minister-jane-garrett-resigns-from-cabinet/7499334">resigned in protest</a>, as did the CEO of the Country Fire Authority and its chief fire officer, while its recalcitrant board was <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cfa-crisis-supreme-court-grants-interim-injunction-on-firefighters-pay-deal-20160610-gpghcf.html">summarily dismissed</a>.</p>
<p>Before the dust could settle, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull intervened earlier this year by <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r5826">changing the Fair Work Act</a> in ways that made these new arrangements illegal. But they left the underlying problems unchanged and the paid firefighters’ grievances unaddressed. </p>
<p>Turnbull’s changes also created a management conundrum. It is <a href="https://rctlaw.com.au/legal-blog/2017/turnbull-govt-legislative-interference-makes-cfa-unworkable">not possible under the new laws</a> for the Country Fire Authority’s management team to negotiate a new enterprise agreement with its paid staff without first securing the agreement of the hostile volunteers. </p>
<p>The Victorian government’s proposal neatly sidesteps Turnbull’s Fair Work legislative hurdles. It also makes it possible for the stalled enterprise agreement to be implemented while enabling the volunteers to have a dedicated service focused on them. </p>
<p>The state government’s coffers are full, and Treasurer Tim Pallas admitted during the recent budget lockup that he had set aside funds to make these new arrangements a reality. There is <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/premier-andrews-splits-victorian-firefighting-20170518-gw85lm.html">talk of A$100 million</a>. Money will not be a problem, but that does not mean the new proposal will succeed.</p>
<p>It must first get through the Victorian parliament, and the opposition will almost certainly will get in the way. Labor does not control the upper house and its lower house majority is down to one. </p>
<p>The volunteers are likely to be unhappy about losing their paid colleagues, who under current arrangements are there to support them. Whether they agree with the proposal will probably depend on how much money Pallas is willing to spend to make up for what is being taken away. </p>
<p>A restructure of the type being proposed will have one other potentially beneficial effect. It is no secret that the relationship between the United Firefighters Union and the Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Board is at rock bottom, and has been that way for some time. The recently completed review of the fire services concluded that this needed to end, and what better way to make that happen than the formation of a <a href="https://engage.vic.gov.au/application/files/1714/8608/1807/Report_of_the_Fire_Services_Review_2015_2.pdf">brand new Fire Rescue Service</a>.</p>
<p>The new organisational arrangements will not resolve all the tensions. There will still be a need along the borders of the city and the bush for paid firefighters to work co-operatively with volunteers under a single command structure, if not in aggregate than certainly at the scene. </p>
<p>Andrews’ plan to secure a lasting firefighter peace has much to recommend it, but whether it succeeds is difficult to predict. His government has proven adept at developing good policy, but it has a strange knack of allowing politics to keep getting in the way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hayward has previously received research funding from the United Fire Fighters Union, most recently to prepare a submission to the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (2009). He also has been awarded funding by the Victorian government for research, education and training purposes. </span></em></p>Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ firefighter reforms have much to recommend them, but there are still many hurdles to jump before they are peacefully implemented.David Hayward, Professor of Public Policy and Acting Director, VCOSS-RMIT Future Social Service Institute, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.