tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/wa-politics-7822/articlesWA politics – The Conversation2023-12-18T03:53:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2194042023-12-18T03:53:23Z2023-12-18T03:53:23ZLabor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie<p>A national <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea">Newspoll</a>, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.</p>
<p>The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.</p>
<p>In my coverage of the previous <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">Newspoll</a>, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.</p>
<p>The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9380-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-december-12">consumer confidence index</a> was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.</p>
<h2>Freshwater poll tied at 50–50</h2>
<p>A national <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f">Freshwater poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/17/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.</p>
<p>On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.</p>
<h2>YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48095-latest-yougov-poll-labors-primary-vote-is-the-lowest-since-1901">YouGov national poll</a>, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/08/yougov-51-49-to-labor-open-thread-2/">Poll Bludger</a> said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1901_Australian_federal_election">1901</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.</p>
<h2>Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases</h2>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).</p>
<p>Voters were <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/12-december-2023">asked to rate</a> Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).</p>
<p>Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.</p>
<p>Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.</p>
<p>Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.</p>
<p>On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.</p>
<h2>Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions</h2>
<p>A federal <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Dec-2023.pdf">Redbridge poll</a> conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">previous Redbridge poll</a> in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).</p>
<p>By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November</a>). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).</p>
<p>In last week’s federal <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-december-2023">Morgan poll</a>, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).</p>
<p>I covered a <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">federal Resolve poll</a> two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-want-migration-intake-cut-as-albanese-pledges-return-to-sustainable-levels-20231207-p5epxl.html">told net migration</a> to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.</p>
<p>On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead</h2>
<p>A Victorian <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/support-for-allan-dips-but-labor-holds-strong-lead-over-coalition-20231208-p5eq38.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1733264329775186073">Kevin Bonham estimated</a> a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.</p>
<p>New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.</p>
<h2>Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns</h2>
<p>On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/annastacia-palaszczuk-resigning-as-queensland-premier/103211112">announced she would resign</a> as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/inal">Inala</a>, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020. </p>
<p>Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/labor-caucus-endorses-steven-miles-as-queensland-premier/103227896">elected unopposed</a> by Labor MPs.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012">wrote two weeks ago</a> that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.</p>
<h2>WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead</h2>
<p>The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/wa-state-round-up-redbridge-poll-and-preselections-a-z/">The Poll Bludger</a> on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/16/weekend-miscellany-redbridge-wa-polling-trusted-politicians-senate-vacancies-and-more-open-thread/">federal WA Redbridge poll</a> gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Latest polling suggests Labor’s position might be improving slightly, perhaps due to increased optimism about the state of the economy.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2190122023-12-05T23:08:24Z2023-12-05T23:08:24ZLabor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland<p>A federal <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/political-monitor/index.html">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-still-far-ahead-in-resolve-poll-in-contrast-to-other-recent-polls-217187">November article on Resolve</a>, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-loses-four-points-in-two-newspolls-to-slump-to-a-50-50-tie-218248">week’s Newspoll</a> had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peter-dutton-is-winning-the-border-wars-against-anthony-albanese-20231204-p5eops.html">Anthony Albanese’s performance</a>, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).</p>
<p>Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).</p>
<p>By 43–18, voters supported the government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-voters-back-plan-to-rein-in-ndis-costs-20231204-p5eovf.html">limiting spending growth on the NDIS</a> to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9416-federal-voting-intention-december-3-2023">federal Morgan poll</a>, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).</p>
<p>Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-peta-murphy-dies-aged-50-20231204-p5eov4.html">died from breast cancer</a> on Monday. In <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm">2022</a>, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.</p>
<h2>It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll</h2>
<p>The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/support-for-labor-steadies-despite-dip-in-palaszczuk-s-popularity-20231205-p5ep30.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/05/resolve-strategic-lnp-37-labor-33-greens-12-in-queensland/">Poll Bludger</a> says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-recovers-in-morgan-after-post-referendum-slump-lnp-leads-in-queensland-216164">Queensland YouGov poll</a>, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).</p>
<p>It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/shannon-fentiman-denies-she-has-been-approached-to-replace-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/3abf1b67a095ab4b383689b1f1677005">recent speculation</a> that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.</p>
<p>Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.</p>
<h2>Tasmania, WA and the NT</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/6567dd27d6227f53ebff4ac0/1701305655222/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+November+2023.pdf">Tasmanian state EMRS poll</a>, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.</p>
<p>In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).</p>
<p>The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/01/western-australian-state-redistribution-finalised/">Poll Bludger</a> said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.</p>
<p>Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a>, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Northern-Territory-Social-Services-11.pdf">Redbridge Northern Territory poll</a>, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.</p>
<p>If these results were replicated at the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Northern_Territory_general_election">next NT election</a> in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the latest poll gives the Labor government a comfortable lead, this is not supported by other polls.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106852023-08-08T23:46:59Z2023-08-08T23:46:59Z‘No’ to the Voice takes lead in Essential poll; huge swing to Libs at WA state byelection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541829/original/file-20230808-31993-zml0xa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/08-august-2023">Essential poll</a>, conducted August 2–6 from a sample of 1,150, gave “no” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament a 47–43 lead, reversing a 47–43 lead for “yes” in this poll in early July. While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.</p>
<p>Here is an updated graph that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">first published</a> in July of Voice polls from Essential, Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan (which hasn’t conducted a Voice poll since May). It’s bleak for the Voice that Essential, clearly the most favourable pollster for “yes”, now has “no” ahead.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541581/original/file-20230807-15835-omrts5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023 Voice polls.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In more bad news for the Voice, a <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/redbridge-poll-july-voice-referendum-2023/">Redbridge national Voice poll</a>, conducted July 21–27 from a sample of 1,022, had “no” leading by 56–44 in a forced choice question. The Essential poll had hard “no” leading hard “yes” by 38–31.</p>
<h2>Labor’s voting intention lead increases in Essential</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two party measure</a> that includes undecided, Labor led by 52–42, an increased margin from a 50–45 lead last fortnight. Primary votes were 33% Labor (up two), 30% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (up one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady).</p>
<p>Respondent allocated preferences appear to have increased Labor’s lead, with Labor’s gain on primary votes compensated by a fall for the Greens, while the Coalition’s losses were gains for One Nation and UAP.</p>
<p>This term Essential polls have been better for the Greens than other polls. This is the Greens’ equal lowest primary vote in Essential, tying 12% in March.</p>
<p>Respondents were asked to rate the government’s performance on various issues on a five-point scale going from excellent to poor. The government received its worst ratings for cost of living (44% poor) and housing affordability (38% poor). By 67–26, respondents thought the government could make a meaningful difference to the cost of living.</p>
<p>On sports betting, 43% (steady since May) wanted sports betting advertising banned outright, 25% (down one) said it should be allowed, but not during sports events and 16% (steady) said it should always be allowed.</p>
<p>By 50–26, respondents agreed that marijuana should be taxed and regulated like alcohol and tobacco, but they disagreed on other currently illegal drugs, in most cases with over 50% disagreeing.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and seat entitlements</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan weekly federal poll</a>, conducted July 31 to August 6 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9464-roy-morgan-update-august-8-2023">sample</a> of 1,391, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. After four successive moves to the Coalition had reduced Labor’s lead from 57–43 to 52–48, Labor has made two successive gains. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 18.5% for all Others.</p>
<p>On July 27, the Australian Electoral Commission <a href="https://aec.gov.au/media/2023/07-27.htm">announced that the House</a> of Representatives would drop from 151 to 150 seats at the next election, with Western Australia gaining a seat and Victoria and New South Wales each losing one. I covered this in June when the latest population statistics were released.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains</a>
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<h2>Labor holds WA Rockingham byelection easily despite huge swing to Libs</h2>
<p>At the July 29 byelection for former WA Labor premier Mark McGowan’s seat of <a href="https://pollbludger.net/wa2023by1/Results/LA.htm?s=Rockingham">Rockingham</a>, Labor defeated the Liberals by 65.2–34.8, a huge 22.5% swing to the Liberals since the 2021 WA election. Primary votes were 49.4% Labor (down 33.5%), 17.7% Liberals (up 7.8%), 15.9% for independent Hayley Edwards (new), 6.8% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 4.9% Greens (up 1.8%).</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/byelection#/2023-Rockingham-By-election">distribution of preferences</a>, Edwards overtook the Liberals as minor candidates were excluded, and the seat finished as a contest between Labor and Edwards, with Labor winning by 61.4–38.6.</p>
<p>While this was a huge swing, there are extenuating circumstances for Labor. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_Australian_state_election">2021 WA election</a> was a record landslide for a state or federal Australian election, with Labor winning the statewide two party vote by 69.7–30.3 on a primary vote of 59.9%. It’s reasonable to expect a big swing against Labor from these levels.</p>
<p>When an MP retires, the party loses that MP’s personal vote. McGowan was <a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-first-national-poll-to-have-no-ahead-in-voice-referendum-but-essential-has-yes-far-ahead-207015">very popular</a>, and his seat was the strongest for Labor at the 2021 election partly owing to his popularity. The loss of such a popular MP enhanced the swing against Labor.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/07/rockingham-by-election-2023-how-big.html">Kevin Bonham</a> said Labor’s two party percentage in Rockingham at this byelection exceeded Rockingham results at three general elections that Labor won with an incumbent MP. The byelection suggests that Labor is still well ahead statewide against the Liberals, in contrast to a recent WA poll that gave the Liberals a 54–46 lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slips-again-in-national-resolve-poll-massive-swing-in-wa-puts-libs-ahead-210252">Voice support slips again in national Resolve poll; massive swing in WA puts Libs ahead</a>
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<p>In other WA electoral news, The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/21/western-australian-draft-state-redistribution/">Poll Bludger</a> covered a draft redistribution of WA’s 59 lower house seats on July 21. This redistribution eliminates one rural seat and replaces it with a metro seat. The abolished seat was won by the Nationals in 2021, while the new seat should be fairly safe for Labor at a normal election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling continues to bring bad news for supporters of the Voice to Parliament.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102522023-07-25T03:55:41Z2023-07-25T03:55:41ZVoice support slips again in national Resolve poll; massive swing in WA puts Libs ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539167/original/file-20230725-27-r3sdrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-slip-into-no-camp-puts-voice-on-track-for-defeat-20230720-p5dpxs.html">national Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,610, had “no” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament leading in a forced choice by 52–48 (51–49 in June). Initial preferences were 42% “no” (up two), 36% “yes” (down six) and 22% undecided (up five). I covered <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-labor-party-plunges-in-a-morgan-poll-after-commonwealth-games-axed-209976">voting intentions</a> and other results from this poll last Friday.</p>
<p>Here is an updated graph of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-slumps-in-essential-poll-lnp-leads-in-queensland-208578">first published two weeks ago</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539152/original/file-20230725-29-gy99et.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Voice polls.</span>
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<p>To be successful, a referendum requires at least four of the six states as well as a national majority in favour. Based on June and July Resolve polls from a combined sample of 3,216, “no” is now ahead in four states. The average of the June and July polls should be a three-point national lead for “no”, but rounding could affect this calculation.</p>
<p>“No” led by 58–42 in Queensland and by 51–49 in Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales. “Yes” led by 52–48 in Victoria and 54–46 in Tasmania (but Tasmania’s figure is unreliable owing to a small sample size).</p>
<p>There are two glimmers of hope for “yes” in this poll. The first is that the rate of national fall has slowed, with “no” only up a point since June after gaining four points from May to June and five from April to May.</p>
<p>The second glimmer of hope is that only Queensland (58–42 “no”) is way below the national figure for “yes”. If “yes” wins a national majority, it’s plausible they would carry all states except Queensland, and win the referendum. But it’s unlikely “yes” wins a national majority.</p>
<p>I previously wrote that just one of 25 Labor-initiated referendums have succeeded, as the Coalition is nearly always opposed. While not succeeding, Labor-initiated referendums have performed much better when held with a general election than as a standalone referendum.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-the-voice-has-a-large-poll-lead-now-history-of-past-referendums-indicates-it-may-struggle-204365">While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle</a>
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<p>By 47–31, respondents expected “no” to win (38–30 expected “yes” to win in June). By 44–29, respondents thought it inappropriate for big business to take a side in the Voice campaign, after being told several large companies will either campaign for or donate to the “yes” campaign.</p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-three-quarters-of-australians-back-ukraine-support-20230720-p5dq0s.html">Ukraine war</a>, respondents were given a summary of recent developments and Australia’s military support for Ukraine. On Australia’s level of support, 45% thought it should be maintained, 31% increased and 9% decreased or withdrawn.</p>
<h2>National Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings slump</h2>
<p>In a federal <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">Essential poll</a>, conducted July 19–23 from a sample of 1,150, Labor led by 50–45 on Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided (51–44 last fortnight). This is Labor’s equal lowest lead in Essential this term, tying with a 49–44 lead in March.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 32% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 9% for all Others (up one) and 6% undecided (up one).</p>
<p>Anthony <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/24-july-2023">Albanese’s ratings</a> were 48% approve (down six since May) and 41% disapprove (up six), for a net approval of +7, down 12 points. This is his worst net approval in Essential since the 2022 election. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved three points since May to -6.</p>
<p>Politicians ranked last on trust in six professions tested, behind doctors, accountants, lawyers, bankers and journalists.</p>
<p>Of 2023 international sport tournaments, the men’s Ashes had the highest level of “very interested” respondents, but more had some interest in the women’s soccer world cup. This was followed by the women’s Ashes, men’s rugby world cup and women’s netball world cup in interest levels.</p>
<p>By 59–26, respondents thought equal prize money should be awarded for the men’s and women’s soccer world cups. By 41–36, they approved nationally of the Victorian government’s cancellation of the 2026 Commonwealth Games, but this question doesn’t ascertain whether respondents thought Victoria was right to offer to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<h2>WA poll: massive swing to Liberals since May puts them ahead</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/23/utting-research-54-46-to-liberal-in-western-australia/">Poll Bludger</a> reported Sunday on a WA state poll by Utting Research for The West Australian. The Liberals led by 54–46, a huge 15-point swing to the Liberals since the May Utting poll that was taken soon after Mark McGowan announced his retirement as WA premier and member for Rockingham.</p>
<p>Primary votes in this poll were 37% Liberals (up nine), 6% Nationals (up one), 32% Labor (down 20), 10% Greens (up two) and 15% for all Others (up eight). This poll was taken by robopolling from July 18–20 from a sample of 1,000.</p>
<p>Current Labor Premier Roger Cook’s ratings were 37% disapprove (up 11 since May) and 27% approve (down 15), for a net approval of -10, down 26 points. Liberal leader Libby Mettam’s ratings were 31% approve (steady) and 24% disapprove (down nine), for a net approval of +7, up nine points.</p>
<p>There will be a WA <a href="https://pollbludger.net/wa2023by1/LA.htm?s=Rockingham">state byelection</a> on Saturday in McGowan’s former seat of Rockingham. At the March 2021 WA election, McGowan won Rockingham by an 87.7–12.3 margin, from a primary vote of 82.8%. If this WA state poll is accurate, we would expect a huge swing to the Liberals at the byelection.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/25/polls-essential-research-wa-voice-results-ukraine-support-open-thread/">Voice question</a> from this WA-only poll, “no” led by 58–29. Other polls, such as Resolve, have only had “no” just ahead in WA, so this is evidence of a sample heavily biased to the right in this poll.</p>
<p>If the poll is accurate, I believe the most important reason for Labor’s crash is the retirement of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/resolve-first-national-poll-to-have-no-ahead-in-voice-referendum-but-essential-has-yes-far-ahead-207015">very popular McGowan</a>. Labor has now governed for six years in a state that <a href="https://aec.gov.au/Elections/Federal_Elections/tpp-results.htm">normally votes for the Coalition</a> at federal elections (though 2022 was an exception). Concerns about high inflation and interest rates are probably hurting Labor.</p>
<h2>Tories lose 2 of 3 UK byelections; right fails to win majority in Spain</h2>
<p>Byelections occurred last Thursday in three United Kingdom Conservative-held seats. The Conservatives lost two with very large swings, to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but held former PM Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge. I covered these byelections for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/20/uk-by-elections-and-spanish-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>At Sunday’s Spanish election, the conservative People’s Party and far-right Vox combined won 169 of the 350 seats in the lower house, short of the 176 needed for a majority. The governing centre-left Socialists and left-wing Sumar won 153 seats, with regionalists, who are mostly left-wing, holding the remainder. The right had been expected to win an outright majority.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Support for the Voice to Parliament continues to slide - but there are some small glimmers of hope for the “yes” campaign.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2067542023-05-31T09:30:47Z2023-05-31T09:30:47ZAfter 24 hours of drama, Roger Cook becomes the next premier of Western Australia<p>With the withdrawal of his principal challengers and the implicit endorsement from key factions within the Labor party, Roger Cook will become Western Australia’s 31st premier. We can expect final endorsement from the Labor caucus and a formal swearing-in from the WA governor in the coming days.</p>
<p>Cook is the Member for <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2008/electorate/KWI/results">Kwinana</a>, in the southern suburbs of Perth, and was elected to the seat in 2008, defeating a popular local mayor by just 300 votes. </p>
<p>Just ten days later, he was elected deputy leader of the Labor Party, a position he has remained in since. For the entire eight and a half years of opposition he held the portfolio of health, and he was appointed health minister when Labor came to power in 2017. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/mark-mcgowan-quits-in-his-own-time-after-dominating-western-australian-politics-206612">Mark McGowan quits in his own time, after dominating Western Australian politics</a>
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<p>It was in this role that he became the second most visible minister in government when the COVID pandemic hit in 2020. From March 2020 until the end of 2021, Cook was often standing next to Premier Mark McGowan when the latter announced crucial decisions that affected every Western Australian. </p>
<p>At the end of 2021, Cook stepped aside as health minister in a cabinet reshuffle. This could be seen as a demotion, but his new portfolio of state development, jobs and tourism still allowed him to maintain a significant role in steering the economic direction of the state. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529294/original/file-20230531-15-2aafv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The COVID pandemic made Roger Cook (left) the second most visible WA minister after Premier Mark McGowan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Twenty-four hours of drama</h2>
<p>Monday’s bombshell <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-quits-in-shock-announcement-declaring-he-is-exhausted-206611">resignation of Mark McGowan</a> as premier left his cabinet and party colleagues scrambling to determine who should replace him. </p>
<p>Three candidates were initially mentioned: Cook, Rita Saffioti and Amber-Jade Sanderson. As minister for transport and planning, Saffioti was central to all major infrastructure projects since the Labor government’s election in 2017. She was especially known for her role in overseeing the rollout of Metronet, the expansion of the public transport system in Perth, which was the government’s signature project. Not being aligned to a faction, Saffioti did not have a natural support base in caucus, making her pathway to victory more complicated. </p>
<p>Sanderson was a first-term minister who has enjoyed a meteoric rise, starting in the environment portfolio before being catapulted into the hot seat of health. She was a member of the United Workers Union (UWU), the largest left faction.</p>
<p>While Cook was also a member of the UWU, Sanderson enjoyed the support of the union’s secretary and won the majority of UWU caucus members at a vote on Tuesday morning. At that point, Cook’s chances looked dim. But Saffioti agreed to join forces with Cook, while the other left faction, the Manufacturing Workers’ Union (AMWU), <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/mark-mcgowan/race-to-be-wa-premier-roger-cook-gets-backing-of-amwu-as-labors-left-splits--c-10818987">backed Cook</a>. </p>
<p>Given Cook also appeared to have support among Progressive Labor (also known as the Right faction), Sanderson withdrew by the end of Tuesday, leaving Cook as the only candidate.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1663773519363325952"}"></div></p>
<p>What remains to be seen is whether the split among the left factions in the Labor party at such a critical juncture is an enduring one. Cook may need to work to build support and collegiality from Sanderson’s supporters within his own UWU faction. There is also the inevitable question around whether anything was promised to the other factions in return for their support. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-pwc-scandal-mcgowan-quitting-politics-pms-trip-to-singapore-and-high-inflation-figure-206769">Word from The Hill: PwC scandal, McGowan quitting politics, PM's trip to Singapore and high inflation figure</a>
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<h2>So who is Roger Cook?</h2>
<p>Cook had a long initiation in politics, having been engaged in student politics during his time at university in the 1980s, rising to the position of national president for the National Union of Students. He spend time as a political adviser in the offices of well-known Labor figures in WA including Stephen Smith, Chris Evans and Jim McGinty.</p>
<p>Cook is known for his passion and enthusiasm for the causes of Indigenous Australians, and he worked in several advocacy roles in that area. Indigenous people featured prominently in his <a href="https://parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament/Memblist.nsf/(MemberPics)/6D748550465A10FCC82574CD000F4696/$file/Inaug+Cook+final.pdf">inaugural speech</a>. He voiced his strong <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/black-lives-matter-protest-coronavirus-western-australia-health-minister-roger-cooks-wife-to-attend/827bdcbd-533c-4660-9b54-f062ee49c7d9">support for his wife</a> who attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June 2020 during a period when the government was discouraging mass gatherings. </p>
<p>The new premier will face a range of challenges when entering the role. Perth is experiencing a housing shortage, which has exacerbated broader rises in the cost of living and contributed to a blowout in the waiting list for public housing. This is coupled with a general skills shortage, especially in the construction industry, which will make resolving the housing crisis more difficult. </p>
<p>There are acute problems in the juvenile justice system and health is a perennial trouble area. Finally, Cook finds himself in a struggle with other premiers (mostly Labor) over the GST allocation. This will ensure he will have his hands full the moment he steps into the job.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Drum was a member of the Ministerial Expert Committee that advised the WA government on electoral reform.</span></em></p>The man who rose to prominence leading Western Australia through the COVID pandemic alongside Mark McGowan becomes its 31st premier after a factional deal.Martin Drum, Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Notre Dame AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881552017-11-30T19:07:03Z2017-11-30T19:07:03ZShould Colin Barnett leave the WA parliament? Definitely, maybe, not at all<p>Party leaders are critical to their party’s performance, and arguably have become even more so in an age in which voter loyalties have frayed and partisanship is on the wane. </p>
<p>It is for these reasons that a government’s electoral defeat is often the catalyst for vanquished premiers and prime ministers to stand aside from the leadership of their party and to quit the parliament. </p>
<p>This is not a legal or constitutional requirement, nor is it necessarily an expectation held by voters. Rather, it is more akin to an informal rule that is invoked following a government’s defeat so as to clear the path for the incoming leadership team. </p>
<p>The reasons why such a practice exist was recently brought into sharp focus when the former Western Australian premier, Colin Barnett, found himself at the centre of calls from the Liberals’ new leader, <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/liberal-leader-mike-nahan-tells-colin-barnett-to-quit-parliament-ng-b88669114z">Mike Nahan</a>, and some <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/time-for-barnett-to-move-on-ng-b88447919z">media commentators</a>, to quit the parliament. Barnett <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/former-wa-premier-colin-barnett-tells-liberal-critics-i-wont-leave-ng-b88671839z">rejected</a> these suggestions. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-wa-in-a-landslide-as-one-nation-fails-to-land-a-blow-74062">Labor wins WA in a landslide as One Nation fails to land a blow</a>
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<p>The question of whether a former premier has an obligation to resign depends in part on what one thinks the role of a political representative is, and to whom they owe their allegiance. For those who have sympathy for the partisan model of representation, former leaders should generally quit the parliament if this is what their party asks of them. </p>
<p>However, for those who subscribe to the view that elected representatives have obligations to the wider community (trustee model) or to the constituency that directly elected them (delegate model), then there is a much stronger case to be made for them serving out their full term, regardless of their former status within parliament.</p>
<h2>The partisan model</h2>
<p>The partisan model of representation would suggest that Barnett should quit the parliament, if this is desired by his party, in order to bring renewal within their ranks or help refocus the team following defeat.</p>
<p>This model positions the elected member as agents of the party, who owe a duty to their party because of the support they received and the opportunities that their party provided for them. Elected members are expected to place the party interest ahead of personal interests. </p>
<p>On these grounds, the Liberals have a strong case against Barnett remaining in parliament. </p>
<p>Barnett has not gone quietly into the night. Rather, he has caused the new leadership team embarrassment by arguing that his premiership was hamstrung by an <a href="https://thewest.com.au/business/leadership/colin-barnett-uncut-success-defeat-regrets-and-his-lasting-legacy-ng-b88652856z">under-performing</a> second-term cabinet, some of whom remain in parliament. </p>
<p>Moreover, with the Liberals reduced to 13 members in a 59-seat chamber, and Barnett holding a safe seat, his exit would allow the party to refresh their ranks at a time when they are trying to rebuild.</p>
<h2>Barnett the trustee?</h2>
<p>If we treat Barnett as a trustee, then the logic favours that he should stay in parliament until such time as his conscience moves him to quit. </p>
<p>Under the trustee model, elected members are expected to be guided by their concern for the broader interests of the state. Once elected, the decision about how that member should serve these interests falls to the discretion of the member.</p>
<p>On this basis, Barnett can reasonably argue that he is an experienced legislator who still has much to contribute to the parliament and to the state. </p>
<p>Moreover, the high financial costs and general disruption associated with holding a byelection without proper cause is not advantageous to the people of the Western Australia. </p>
<h2>An elected delegate</h2>
<p>The delegate model requires the elected member to act according to the wishes of those who elected them. Unlike the trustee model, such assessments are not for the MP to make, but only after careful consideration of the views of the electorate. </p>
<p>Based on this model, only the voters in Barnett’s seat of Cottesloe are fit to make any such decision about his future and, arguably, they have already done so when they re-elected him in 2017. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-unrealistic-to-expect-mps-to-follow-the-view-of-the-people-who-elected-them-every-time-87622">It's unrealistic to expect MPs to follow the view of the people who elected them every time</a>
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<p>Barnett’s claims in this regard are strengthened because he was elected on first preference votes <a href="https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2017/electorate/COT/results">(56.67%)</a>, and because he made clear his intention to remain in parliament regardless of the outcome of the election. This would suggest that Barnett’s electorate supported his reelection full in the knowledge of his future intentions. </p>
<p>Thus, in the absence of any actions that would render Barnett unfit or unable to serve under the <a href="https://www.constitutionalcentre.wa.gov.au/ResearchAndSeminarPapers/WesternAustralianConstitution/Pages/Default.aspx">WA Constitution</a>, the logic of the delegate model supports his remaining in parliament. </p>
<h2>The ultimate decision-maker</h2>
<p>In the end, the decision about Barnett’s future in parliament is for him to make. </p>
<p>Neither the people of Cottesloe nor his own party can force him to resign. The Liberals can expel him from the party, but this does not solve the problem because what Barnett has said cannot be unsaid, and he may prove more of a distraction if freed from his partisan bonds. </p>
<p>Yet what this incident, and others similar to it underline, is that any such disagreement over whether former leaders should remain in parliament often boils down to different views about to whom they are ultimately beholden.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Should defeated party leaders stay in parliament? Former Western Australian premier Colin Barnett is an interesting case in point.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/834292017-09-05T20:14:05Z2017-09-05T20:14:05ZWestern Australians don’t really want a ‘WAxit’, they just want a little love<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/184592/original/file-20170904-31374-1paae1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beautiful Cottesloe beach in Perth – could Western Australians soon file for divorce from the rest of us?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Karen Sweeney</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last weekend’s Liberal Party conference has put Western Australia secession back in the news.</p>
<p>Whether it’s back on the agenda is another matter. Yes, Liberal Party state president and long-time secessionist, Norman Moore, had an almost-win in getting support for a non-binding motion <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-liberals-support-establishment-of-waxit-committee/news-story/78243400b8faf78bcb75ac9a490905d5">for a committee</a> to look into financial matters associated with a “WAxit”.</p>
<p>But it wasn’t the investigation of the state becoming completely independent Moore wanted. It only passed 89-73. And Liberal leader Mike Nahan wasn’t even prepared to support the damp squib the motion had become.</p>
<p>Premier Mark McGowan probably summed up the view of many West Australians in <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-liberal-party-vote-for-fiscal-secession-draws-gasps-20170904-gya2nf.html">dismissing it</a> as “a lot of bluff and bluster”.</p>
<p>But many Western Australians (or West Australians, as they call themselves) aren’t happy with WA’s GST share, and secession has never disappeared completely as an issue over here. So here we are again.</p>
<p>West Australians were reluctant participants in the federation from the beginning. Representatives turned up to the 1891 Constitutional Convention, but were only occasional participants in the conventions held in 1897 and 1898.</p>
<p>Most Australians wouldn’t know that the state isn’t named in the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/preamble">preamble to the Constitution</a>, because the referendum in which West Australians decided to federate was held too late for the paperwork to be done.</p>
<p>West Australians even <a href="http://www.sro.wa.gov.au/blogs/westralia-shall-be-free-western-australian-secession-referendum-1933">voted to leave the federation</a> in a 1933 referendum. A delegation went to the British parliament to get it to amend the act it had passed to allow the creation of the Australian federation (Australia’s constitution is an act of that parliament, after all). The members of the select committee created by the House of Commons took 18 months to decide that it wasn’t their problem, and sent the WA delegation packing.</p>
<p>Secessionism quietened down after that, until iron ore mogul Lang Hancock founded the Westralian Secession Movement (WSM) <a href="http://www.slwa.wa.gov.au/federation/iss/091_echo.htm">in 1974</a> because he didn’t like the tariffs the federal government imposed and the cost to the foreign exchange WA earned through mining and wheat exports. </p>
<p>However, the WSM’s candidate in the 1974 Senate election couldn’t get the votes he needed to win a seat. So you’d be forgiven for thinking there wasn’t that much support for secession.</p>
<p>It was back on the agenda in the late 2000s, when WA’s GST share started to fall below the amount WA contributed. And it’s stayed on the agenda as the Commonwealth Grants Commission has further reduced WA’s share of the GST collected here.</p>
<p>The GST carve up is no minor matter for West Australians. WA’s had a state debt for many years (A$33 billion in 2017 and growing to A$40.19 billion in 2020) and an annual deficit since 2015 (it’s now more than A$4 billion, though we’ll find out the exact number when the new treasurer, Ben Wyatt, delivers the state budget next week). </p>
<p>State debt is like your mortgage: you’re lucky if you can afford it, and the annual deficit is how well you’ve done in balancing your household budget this financial year.</p>
<p>Government debt has affected the state’s credit rating, which Moody’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-08/moodys-downgrades-wa-credit-rating-aa1/7149196">downgraded to Aa2</a> last year. And one way state governments respond to deficits is to increase charges for water, electricity and other state provided amenities. So deficits hit home.</p>
<p>Careful readers will have noticed that I’ve written “they”, not “we”. This is because, when preparing a presentation about the Commonwealth Grants Committee treating WA as raising revenue from gambling it doesn’t actually raise, a colleague told me that I had to tell my audience that I’d only lived here for 25 years.</p>
<p>But I get it. WA is a long way from “over east”, and people here feel like nobody “over east” knows that we/they exist. </p>
<p>It doesn’t help when politicians from “over east” make clear that they’ve no idea what’s happening in WA. As Pauline Hanson did during the last state election when, after allowing a preference deal between the Liberals and One Nation, she discovered – on actually turning up here – that Liberal premier Colin Barnett and his government were on the nose.</p>
<p>As a Queenslander, though, I’d better leave the last word to whoever is responsible for the Secession WA Facebook page. It has only 16 likes and 19 people follow it, but it pretty much sums up the attitude of many people over here. (They don’t actually want secession. They’re just hurting):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The West Australian newspaper is writing about secession because of the GST carve up mess. I am saying secession because we all know in WA that Canberra doesn’t give a shit about us except for our mineral and petroleum royalties. Let’s give Canberra the flick and keep our money for our people.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To secede or not to secede, that is the question for WA, as it considers going it alone (though not everyone is taking it seriously).Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/594592016-06-16T20:08:14Z2016-06-16T20:08:14ZState of the states: why Labor’s fortunes are on the rise in Western Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125627/original/image-20160608-15028-s6bjsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull visited a shipyard early in the campaign to highlight an already announced contract to build naval patrol boats.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mike Bowers</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Ahead of polling day on July 2, our <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">State of the states series</a> takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states and territories.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>By nature a conservative state, the Liberal Party has dominated Western Australian politics for most of the past decade. As well as holding power at the state level in coalition with the Nationals, the Liberals hold 12 of WA’s 15 current federal lower house seats and six of the 12 Senate seats.</p>
<p>This enormous majority has resulted in WA Liberals playing a significant role nationally. Four serve as cabinet ministers, including Julie Bishop and Mathias Cormann.</p>
<h2>Key seats</h2>
<p>Starting from a low base, and despite the fact that all three sitting members are not seeking re-election, Labor’s fortunes in WA appear to be <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/09/the-20-seats-labor-needs-to-win/">on the rise</a>. In part this is down to the strong swing against the state government.</p>
<p>Labor should hold onto all three of its existing seats (Fremantle, Perth and Brand). It is also likely to take the new seat of Burt; its candidate, Matt Keogh, ran as Labor’s candidate in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wash-up-from-the-canning-byelection-47836">2015 Canning byelection</a>. The most recent BludgerTracker, which combines the results of a number of polls, has a <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/10/reachtel-50-50-5/">swing to Labor in WA of 8.9%</a>.</p>
<p>The seats most likely to change hands are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/cowa/">Cowan</a>, held by Luke Simpkins, has seen the notional majority fall from 7.5% to 4.5% in the recent redistribution. High-profile counter-terrorism academic Anne Aly is contesting the seat for Labor.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/hasl/">Hasluck</a>, held by Ken Wyatt with a notional majority of 6% after the redistribution, has changed hands multiple times since 2001. Labor’s candidate is another academic, historian Bill Leadbetter.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/swan/">Swan</a>, held by Steve Irons, has a notional margin of 7.3%. The seat is being contested for Labor by Tammy Solonec, an Indigenous human rights lawyer who ran for the Greens as an upper house candidate in the last state election.</p></li>
<li><p>There’s also talk of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/stir/">Stirling</a>, held by Michael Keenan, being a possible gain for Labor. However, this would require a notional swing of 9%. Labor candidate Robert Pearson has been very low key so far.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While the Greens are very unlikely to win any seats in the lower house, they are in a good position to <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/24/simulating-the-senate/">hold onto their two Senate seats</a>. The Liberals appear set to win at least four Senate seats, and Labor could possibly move up to four seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/125215/original/image-20160605-11611-txh55w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=663&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s target seats in Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">WA Labor/Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Key state issues</h2>
<p>State issues will be more significant than usual in the 2016 federal election. WA Premier Colin Barnett has become <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/wa-premier-says-he-will-lead-party-to-next-election/7421326">deeply unpopular</a> within the electorate and apparently within his own party as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-01/liza-harvey-mike-nahan-back-wa-premier-colin-barnett-leadership/7467038">rumours of a leadership challenge</a> persist.</p>
<p>The state government appears currently to be a magnet for bad news. Further possible delays may prevent the opening of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-25/doubt-remains-over-perth-childrens-hospital-opening/7446266">new children’s hospital</a>, which was originally due to open in November 2015. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-city-link-blow-mirvac-aborts-key-land-deal-with-state-government-20160524-gp33mp.html">collapse of a deal</a> that would develop commercial, retail and residential property at the Perth City Link, in conjunction with delays in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-07/another-delay-for-elizabeth-quay-development/7305826">private construction at Elizabeth Quay</a>, leaves the government with two large investments that are unlikely to meet community expectations for years and continue to be a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-25/elizabeth-quay-costs-criticised-by-opposition/7445964">drain on the public purse</a>.</p>
<p>Between 2008 and 2014 WA was sheltered in a bubble; the global financial crisis was perceived as an event happening elsewhere. The boom of all booms was on, and this time it was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/site-archive/rural/news/content/200911/s2739442.htm">going to last at least 20 years</a>. </p>
<p>The rapid downturn in WA’s economy has come as a shock – not just for voters, but for the government. State surpluses are a thing of the past and WA now finds itself with a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-state-budget-2016-the-biggest-deficit-in-history-20160512-gots4b.html">debt of A$40 billion</a> and an economic downturn that <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31588050/state-budget-2016-was-ecconomy-is-still-shrinking/">still hasn’t bottomed out</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31736671/perth-house-prices-still-in-retreat/">House prices are falling</a>, as are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-07/vacant-rental-properties-in-perth-reach-record-levels/7392614">rents</a>. For the first time in years there has been a move from the private <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-education-idUSKCN0YP0GG">to the public school system</a> as out-of-work parents, and many workers now forced to live on their base salary without any of the market and performance bonuses, try to cut costs.</p>
<h2>Policy proposals</h2>
<p>WA Labor leader Mark McGowan has forged a canny coalition with federal Labor leader Bill Shorten.</p>
<p>Shorten has pledged to <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/federal-opposition-leader-bill-shorten-promises-1-billion-for-metronet-20160522-gp17yf.html">move a A$1 billion</a> in federal funding from the state government’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-12/federal-government-pledges-boost-for-perth-freight-link/7318600">unpopular Perth Freight Link</a> to Labor’s ambitious <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/files/HeavyRailVision-small.pdf">MetroNet</a>, a significant extension of Perth’s suburban railway network. </p>
<p>Metronet was the key policy in WA Labor’s 2013 state election campaign. While Labor lost the election, it has kept the policy, which resonated with the public. It has been referenced throughout the last three-and-a-half years as the government has failed to deliver on its <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/perths-max-light-rail-plan-set-to-be-dumped-for-12-billion-bus-service/news-story/853cd6f590dd099801a0bb4f17f99829">promise of light rail</a>.</p>
<p>For McGowan, sharing Metronet with his federal counterparts is a win-win scenario. The policy receives free attention in the lead-up to next year’s state election, and now has the promise of national funding – assuming Labor wins at the federal level. Labor’s backing of Metronet also places pressure on the federal government to provide funding to alleviate <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31744308/bid-to-stop-perth-s-sprawl/">Perth’s transport woes</a>.</p>
<p>No conversation about WA’s views of federal politics is complete without stressing the importance of the GST issue. WA’s economy has tanked, yet the state will still only be receiving 30 cents in the dollar <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-premier-colin-barnett-calls-on-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-to-tackle-gst-carveup/news-story/334e15605a88fb047ab4f3419dc38efe">in GST revenue</a>. </p>
<p>It doesn’t matter <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/july/gst-relativities-where-is-revenue-raised">how fair the GST formula is</a>, or that the Commonwealth is providing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-10/wa-set-for-490m-federal-government-gst-top-up-payment/7313958">a top-up to WA</a> to make up part of the shortfall. The optics of the “GST rip-off” resonate across both major parties, and Barnett and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-08/wa-treasurer-slams-gst-carve-up/7309644">his treasurer</a> have expressed their anger at their national counterparts over insufficient GST funding.</p>
<p>So far each major party leader has made two visits to WA. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/05/16/pm-visits-wa-shipyard-and-nt-pub">made a short first visit</a> to a shipyard to highlight an already announced contract to build naval patrol boats. </p>
<p>Both leaders spent time in their second visits campaigning in marginal seats as pre-polling opened. </p>
<p>There was much focus on Turnbull’s declaration that the federal government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-14/pm-rules-out-federal-funding-for-perth-stadium/7508146">would not be providing $100 million</a> for the new Perth stadium, although he did pledge <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31834936/pm-pitches-dollars-for-wa-baseball/">$6 million for Baseball Park</a>. Also gaining attention was the <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31834086/wa-premier-says-pm-is-not-avoiding-him/">notable absence of Colin Barnett</a> by Turnbull’s side. </p>
<p>Shorten used his second trip to announce Labor’s new <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/06/14/shorten-pledges-62m-apprentices">$62 million policy on apprenticeships</a>. </p>
<p>Western Australians should expect to be bombarded with political advertising, particularly from Labor in its quest to pick up seats, as we get closer to polling day. </p>
<p>While it is improbable WA will be gifted the equivalent of a submarine building contact, we should expect to see both sides offering sweeteners to the state as July 2 draws closer. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Catch up on <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/state-of-the-states-2016">others in the series</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This piece has been amended to correct that the $40 billion figure is the size of WA’s debt, not its deficit.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is chair of The Conversation's editorial board.</span></em></p>When it comes to Western Australia, key state issues will be more significant than usual in swinging the vote in the 2016 federal election.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/569072016-03-30T03:10:54Z2016-03-30T03:10:54ZWA port sales the latest privatisations to hit political hurdles<p>The Western Australian Nationals recently <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/wa-nationals-demand-fremantle-port-sale-answers-from-liberals/7258310">announced</a> they will no longer support the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/port-of-fremantle-to-hit-the-market-for-15-billion-as-privatisation-wave-continues-20150515-gh2hy5.html">government’s plan to privatise Fremantle Ports</a>. Last week, the WA Nationals also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/utah-point-port-sale-stalls-as-nationals-defer-legislation/7268582">halted passage of the Pilbara Port Privatisation Bill</a>, which deals with the sale of the Port Hedland Utah Point Bulk Handling Facility. They have asked a parliamentary committee to investigate the proposed sale.</p>
<p>A number of junior minors such as Atlas Iron, Mineral Resources and Consolidated Minerals use the Utah Point facility to export their iron ore. These miners have expressed concern about a potential increase in handling charges if the new owner was looking to improve their return on investment.</p>
<p>The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) says the <a href="http://www.miningnews.net/operations/infrastructure/pilbara-port-sale-threatens-regions-miners/">privatisation plan is creating uncertainty for the junior miners</a>. AMEC also says an increase in costs could jeopardise their operations and viability.</p>
<p>The asset sales agenda is <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/wa-debt-spirals-towards-unprecedented-39b-20151220-glsabf">driven by the state’s large debt and budget deficits</a> in the forward estimates. The Barnett Liberal government had flagged its <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/31147316/voters-reject-wa-government-asset-sell-offs/">intention to sell a number of public assets</a>, including Fremantle Ports, the government-owned manager of the state’s biggest general cargo port and Australia’s fourth-largest container port. </p>
<p>The WA Nationals’ decision comes soon after political posturing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-09/victorian-opposition-reaches-agreement-with-port-privatisation/7232428">delayed the privatisation of the Port of Melbourne</a> in Victoria. After a Legislative Council select committee inquiry, Victoria’s Labor government had to water down the proposed legislation to secure the support of the opposition to pass the bill. The changes resulted in more regulatory oversight, a shorter period of potential compensation payments to the new owners if a competing port was built during the lease period and control measures in port pricing regimes. </p>
<p>Whether the delay in timing (the sale is now scheduled for late this year or early next year) and the legislative changes will affect the sale price of the port remains to be seen. Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas is still hopeful of hitting the A$6 billion-plus mark.</p>
<h2>Privatisations prompt strategic concerns</h2>
<p>Another obstacle in the way of privatising critical infrastructure (and achieving bigger proceeds) is federal Treasurer Scott Morrison’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/scott-morrison-tightens-foreign-investment-rules/7257624">announcement of tighter foreign investment rules</a> in the wake of the controversial sale of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company. From next month the Foreign Investment Review Board will need to approve the sale of critical infrastructure, such as ports and airports, belonging to the states and territories. </p>
<p>The 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/new-darwin-port-owners-militia-links-to-chinas-military-20151117-gl1b4y.html">entity with alleged links to the Chinese government and military</a> did not please the US government. Washington considers Darwin’s port a strategic asset in view of the presence of a large contingent of the US Navy, which uses the port for its supply chains.</p>
<p>WA Premier Colin Barnett told Parliament <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/fremantle-port-sale-fail-as-nationals-withdraw-support/7270868">his government still intended to introduce legislation</a>, probably in the next sitting week, to support the sale of the port. He hoped for a change of mind by the Nationals and/or support from Labor and the Greens. If the sale was stalled, Mr Barnett said he would take it to the next election.</p>
<p>Labor seems to be hedging its bets with no publicly declared position on the sale of the port. But given Labor’s strong links to the Fremantle electorate (federal and state) and the maritime union (MUA organiser Chris Brown is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/mua-candidate-gets-labor-preselection-nod-for-fremantle/7241144">favoured to be preselected for the seat of Fremantle</a> for this year’s federal election) the opposition would be hard pressed to support the sale.</p>
<h2>What changed the Nationals’ mind?</h2>
<p>Nationals leader Terry Redman previously supported the sale. His change of heart comes after likely pressure from provincial backbenchers who still recall the sale of the WA government-owned country rail network to Brookfield, a global infrastructure company based in Canada. That left grain farmers with failing infrastructure and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-04/cbh-and-brookfield-come-to-interim-rail-deal-in-wa/6441336">rising costs to get their grain to global markets</a>. </p>
<p>Some of those fears were also played out in the proposed takeover of Asciano where Brookfield intended to have control over Pacific National, a rail provider and part of Asciano, which hauls grain to ports on the Australian eastern seaboard. Now that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/from-foes-to-friends-how-qube-and-brookfield-teamed-up-to-bid-for-asciano-20160225-gn3pdx.html">Qube Logistics and Brookfield have joined in a bid for Asciano</a>, a revised split-up of Asciano businesses has ensured Pacific National will no longer be under the control of Brookfield. This seems to have eased the concerns of grain growers across the country.</p>
<p>Fremantle Ports is the last capital city port to be privatised. However, a lot of water will probably have flowed under the Stirling Highway Bridge (a vital link to the port of Fremantle across the Swan River) before a deal can be done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter van Duyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Barnett government’s plans to sell ports, including the last capital city port slated for privatisation, appear to have been torpedoed by the WA Nationals’ change of heart.Peter van Duyn, Maritime Logistics Expert, Institute for Supply Chain and Logistics, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561952016-03-15T04:17:39Z2016-03-15T04:17:39ZWA Labor avoids own goal, but what damage has Smith’s tilt at the leadership done?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115036/original/image-20160314-11292-akxbj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stephen Smith's bid to return to politics as Labor leader in Western Australia has ended in defeat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tony McDonough</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The destabilisation of Mark McGowan’s leadership of the Western Australian Labor Party by former federal defence minister Stephen Smith – and his unnamed supporters within state parliament – was a folly of the worst sort.</p>
<p>Smith <a href="https://twitter.com/G_Parker/status/709607226910978048">ended his leadership tilt</a> following caucus’ <a href="https://twitter.com/josh_jerga/status/709574447875751936">unanimous endorsement</a> of McGowan on Tuesday. </p>
<p>Smith’s surprising tilt at the leadership occurred following a month of rumours of an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-13/perth-mp-alannah-mactiernan-backs-mark-mcgowan-wa-labor-leader/7165802">attempt to replace McGowan</a> – first with former state transport minister and retiring federal MP Alannah MacTiernan, and then with Smith.</p>
<p>Smith’s challenge <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-14/wa-labor-mps-rally-behind-mark-mcgowan-stephen-smith-leadership/7244360">fizzled out by Monday night</a> after a weekend of speculation. Shadow cabinet released a statement unanimously supporting McGowan. The state executive <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-15/reece-whitby-endorsed-at-state-executive-meeting/7246912">rushed through</a> the preselection of Reece Whitby for the new seat of Baldivis. This cut off Smith from the most obvious entry point into parliament.</p>
<h2>State of play</h2>
<p>A year out from the next state election, the <a href="http://cdn.newsapi.com.au//image/v1/9a3bb27048ae8931a676006131527dc7">latest Newspoll</a>, released in January, had the Barnett government in trouble. Labor held a 53-47 two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/liberals-take-the-lead-in-latest-wa-opinion-poll/news-story/363e0dfcc4f9323f8cd5cada5ec06245">Roy Morgan poll</a> from early February had the government in an election-winning two-party-preferred position at 54.5%. However, McGowan had a strong rating of 56.5% over Colin Barnett as preferred premier.</p>
<p>Following the Newspoll result, it was <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/12/poll-bludger-wa-libs-out-of-money-out-of-votes/">reported</a> that internal polling shows the swing to Labor is not uniform, and that the party faces additional challenges as a result of the recent redistribution.</p>
<p>McGowan is in his fourth year as leader. During the 2103 state election, while campaigning against a somewhat struggling government, Labor made inroads in the electorate with its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-30/mcgowan-in-metronet-pledge-at-wa-labor-state-conference/6735570">Metronet public transport</a> ambitions, but McGowan was unable to stop a strong swing toward the government.</p>
<p>Labor was <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-barnett-and-the-liberals-do-it-easy-12470">never going to win</a> that election. It looked as though Labor was set for another two terms in opposition following 2013; winning government requires a 10% swing.</p>
<p>The Barnett government’s second election honeymoon period was fleeting. The scandal surrounding then-treasurer <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/troy-buswell-suffers-mental-breakdown-after-drunken-crash-quits-cabinet/story-fnhocxo3-1226850029901">Troy Buswell</a>, who resigned in disgrace, wreaked havoc with the government’s policy agenda.</p>
<p>Over the past four years, McGowan has been a solid opposition leader, with a competent team of frontbenchers, plugging away at a government unable to come to terms with a booming economy that didn’t slow down as much as come to a screaming halt. There is still a level of disbelief within WA that not only has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-21/western-australia-deficit-blowout/7045374">the state’s credit rating</a> been downgraded, but that the debt will reach A$39 billion by 2019. </p>
<p>While performing consistently, the opposition has been low key, at times struggling to break through. In part this is because the almost unbelievable events in Canberra since 2010 have overshadowed state politics across Australia. As such it is difficult for the opposition to gain the oxygen required in a one-daily-newspaper town.</p>
<p>It hasn’t all been smooth sailing for McGowan. Labor state secretary Simon Mead’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-22/ex-wa-labor-state-secretary-simon-mead-to-get-$266,000-payout/6564478">costly departure</a> brought unwanted attention to the party’s internal workings. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/labor-defends-use-of-monster-debt-label-in-wa/6504850">“debt monster”</a> stunt designed to draw attention to WA’s spiralling debt was not universally well received.</p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115043/original/image-20160315-17763-1f5rhn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mark McGowan leads Colin Barnett as preferred premier a year out from the election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Angie Raphael</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Former WA Labor state secretary John Halden’s claim that McGowan <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/mark-mcgowan-not-flamboyant-enough-win-election-halden-says/7237350">isn’t flamboyant</a> enough to be premier would have been a legitimate argument if MacTiernan were making a run for the leadership. But to suggest Smith, one of the driest performers Labor has produced, would prove any more animated than McGowan certainly raised eyebrows.</p>
<p>A highly competent minister, Smith now appears to be suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome. With his attempt to seize the leadership, he has engaged in a level of destabilisation more suited to Canberra than Perth.</p>
<p>Labor forces, including a significant number of local MPs, quickly gathered around McGowan to shore up his position. Despite McGowan surviving, and performing strongly since Friday in dismissing Smith’s claims about his leadership, he has sustained completely unnecessary damage.</p>
<p>The worst-case scenario for McGowan is that, having seen Smith was serious, caucus members get worried if Labor’s numbers drop in the local polls, and Smith sits on the sidelines stalking McGowan.</p>
<p>At some point Labor needs to consider the message such actions send to current and future MPs. Why would anyone put up their hand to undertake the hard yards of opposition only to have the leadership taken off them late in the day in the hope that another candidate will be more popular on polling day?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56195/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is is the Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p>A highly competent minister, Stephen Smith now appears to be suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome in his failed attempt to seize the Labor leadership in Western Australia.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/553162016-02-25T01:59:56Z2016-02-25T01:59:56ZExplainer: the myth of the Noble Savage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112844/original/image-20160225-15170-zu9hdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The figure of the 'noble savage' has deep roots in Australia colonialism. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shipwreck of the Stirling Castle, John Curtis, 1838.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Liberal MP Dennis Jensen has come under attack for telling Parliament the Australian government should not be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/dennis-jensen-says-noble-savages-dont-need-funding/7195086">funding people to live a “noble savage” lifestyle</a> in remote Indigenous communities. To link the idea of the “noble savage” to Indigenous Australians in 2016 is unquestionably offensive, but to understand why it’s worthwhile probing the term’s chequered history.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112833/original/image-20160225-18284-1f8syaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=702&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Victor Hugo’s novel Bug-Jargal (1826) used the ‘nobel savage’ trope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Illustration from Bug-Jargal (1826).</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The modern myth of the noble savage is most commonly attributed to the 18th-century Enlightenment philosopher Jean Jacques Rousseau. He believed the original “man” was free from sin, appetite or the concept of right and wrong, and that those deemed “savages” were not brutal but noble.</p>
<p>His noble savage, considered in <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/reader/3885-mile-ou-de-l-ducation?percent=0.031857">Emile, ou de l'Education</a> (1762), <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=dYlkKJ0CHnEC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">Reveries of a Solitary Walker</a> (1782) and <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12649.Confessions">Confessions</a> (1768), was a shining beacon to 18th-century Europe.</p>
<p>The idea can be found also in theology as an explanation for the degeneration of 18th-century society. The founder of the Methodist Church, John Wesley, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17343186-predestination-calmly-considered">claimed that</a>,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>in the beginning man was made right with regular, pure affections. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But “he” became diseased and degenerated, obsessed with the things of the world. </p>
<p>James Cook brought Enlightenment ideas and sciences to the South Seas in his journeys around the Pacific, and was perhaps expressing Rousseau-style sentiments when he described Australian Aborigines in <a href="http://southseas.nla.gov.au/journals/cook_remarks/092.html">noble savage tones</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They live in a Tranquillity which is not disturb’d by the Inequality of Condition: The Earth and sea of their own accord furnishes them with all things necessary for life, they covet not Magnificent Houses, Household-stuff, they live in a warm and fine Climate and enjoy a very wholesome Air, so that they have very little need of Clothing …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>They were, Cook famously declared in his Endeavour journals, “far more happier than we Europeans”. </p>
<p>Through the 19th century, as empires swallowed Indigenous lands, the idea of the noble savage receded and the reverse negative stereotype of the dangerous, brutal savage prevailed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112830/original/image-20160225-15614-seqoq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The European reaction to the death of James Cook revealed the conflicting stereotype of the ‘brutal savage’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Johanne Zoffany, The Death of Captain James Cook, 1779</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both typecasts relied on the idea that the Indigenous peoples of the world were in an original state, “primitive”, “backward”, the ancient ancestor to “modern man”, the infants of humanity. Metaphors of time forged the social relationships of colonialism. </p>
<p>The noble savage re-emerged with Karl Marx’s <a href="http://www.britannica.com/topic/Marxism">critique of empire</a> in the mid to late 19th century. It was expressed most powerfully by his partner, Friedrich Engels, who tied his revolutionary hunger for freedom from Victorian restrictions to the belief that human societies were originally led by women, and were characterised by the absence of jealousy and a state of almost free love. </p>
<p>In his famous fourth edition of <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52198.The_Origin_of_the_Family_Private_Property_and_the_State">Origins</a> (1894), Engels claimed that the most perfect example of this society could be found among Australian Aborigines. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/112832/original/image-20160225-14489-172crem.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1061&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Friedrich Engels popularised the notion of the ‘noble savage’ for a new century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">via Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Engels berated those who argued for the brutal savage, for those “philistines in their brothel-tainted imagination” who viewed Aboriginal sexual relations with abhorrence. </p>
<p>Many historians and anthropologists have questioned his reading of the Australian texts, in particular Fison and Howitt’s landmark study of Aboriginal and Pacific Island societies, <a href="https://blogs.deakin.edu.au/contemporary-history-studies/southern-anthropology-a-history-of-fison-howitts-kamilaroi-and-kurnai/">Kamilaroi and Kurnai</a> (1880), that formed the basis of his analysis. </p>
<p>Engels’ noble savage proved particularly tenacious through the 20th century and became a kind of pagan foundation for the Soviet State, an argument against both Christianity and the West. </p>
<p>Free love was held to be the gift of the revolution, an attempt to recreate the perceived sexual freedom of Indigenous peoples. </p>
<p>The idea of the noble savage became a romantic foil to the alienation and inequities of capitalism and was restated by the neo-Marxists of the 1970s.</p>
<p>Yet another version of the noble savage can be found in <a href="https://www.academia.edu/2168576/_Rethinking_Appropriation_of_the_Indigenous_a_Critique_of_the_Romanticist_Approach._">New Age romanticism</a>. Indigenous peoples are credited with special powers, such as healing or enhanced spirituality. New Age practitioners might seek to recreate or dance through Indigenous ceremonies, often with little idea of their original meanings. </p>
<p>Dream catchers and unattributed dot paintings on bags produced in China prove that there is money to be made from this model of the myth. </p>
<p>Scholars have long recognised that both the noble and the brutal savage are fantasies of the European mind that kept Indigenous peoples in a suspended state of either elevated purity or perpetual evil. </p>
<p>The noble savage binds Indigenous peoples to an impossible standard. The brutal savage, by contrast, becomes the pre-emptive argument for Indigenous failings. </p>
<p>The ideal of the noble savage has led to considerable derision. James Cook’s most famous biographer, J.C. Beaglehole, <a href="http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/368443">dismissed Cook’s passage on Aborigines</a> as,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>preposterous sublimity, this nonsense on stilts.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Gardner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Liberal MP Dennis Jensen’s comments about the ‘noble savage’ lifestyle tap into a centuries-old stereotype about Indigenous people.Helen Gardner, Associate Professor Of History, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/462822015-09-02T03:45:10Z2015-09-02T03:45:10ZThe lowdown on the Canning byelection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93479/original/image-20150901-25717-88ii9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Hastie (left) is hoping to retain the Western Australian seat of Canning for the Liberal Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Sarah Motherwell</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Following the death of sitting Liberal Party member Don Randall, a byelection will be held on September 19 for the federal seat of Canning.</p>
<p>Randall won Canning outright at the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/cann/">2013 federal election</a>, with 51.07% of the primary vote and a two-party-preferred margin of 11.8%. The Liberal Party has held the seat since 2001. However, Randall’s personal vote was estimated to be around 5%. Additionally, a protest vote is expected as voters mark their dissatisfaction with the Abbott government.</p>
<p>Over the weekend, the media were speculating on the repercussions of a significant swing against the government, including the <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/samantha-maiden-lets-be-honest-joe-hockey-is-a-flog-and-has-to-go/story-fni0cwl5-1227504452139">possible removal</a> of Treasurer Joe Hockey from his portfolio.</p>
<p>Two-and-a-half weeks out from polling day, Natalie Mast sat down with elections expert William Bowe to discuss the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/2015-canning/">12 candidates</a>, the major parties’ campaigns and the key issues in Canning.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Q: Two-and-a-half weeks out, what are you seeing in the polling data?</strong></p>
<p>A: We’re seeing a lot of headlines about polls showing it at 50-50, but if you look at them carefully, they’re more favourable for the Liberals than that. Pollsters are better at measuring what people are going to do with their primary vote than trying to work out what people will do with the preferences. </p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/28/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/">Two polls from ReachTEL</a> have shown the Liberal Party with a primary vote of 47%, and if that’s right they’re going to bolt home. However, ReachTEL has 80% of preferences from minor parties flowing to Labor, which is not believable. If Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie gets 47% of the primary vote, he’s going to win by about 55-45. </p>
<p><strong>Q: How large a swing will Labor need to attain to worry Tony Abbott’s leadership and possibly trigger a cabinet reshuffle?</strong></p>
<p>A: I think if the Liberals can limit the swing to below 8%, they can spin that. About 4% could be attributed to the loss of Randall’s personal vote, with another 4% attributed to the usual midterm anti-government sentiment.</p>
<p>Canning is probably quite a fortuitous electorate for the Liberals to be facing a byelection in because it’s got a reasonably old and settled population profile. It’s also not an ethnically diverse electorate. Voters born overseas tend to be from the UK, South Africa and New Zealand.</p>
<p>As an electorate, Canning can be seen as divided into two main urban sectors – Mandurah and Armadale – with a smaller number living in the sort of semi-rural hinterland. Mandurah has a significant retiree population who don’t tend to be all that volatile in their voting behaviour. Armadale, though, is a different story, because it’s fairly blue-collar and has a lot of first-home buyers. </p>
<p><strong>Q: How important is national security as an issue in the byelection?</strong></p>
<p>I’d be really interested to know that, but I don’t. </p>
<p>The unresolved question for me is: is there any limit on how tough Abbott can be on national security without it backfiring?. Presumably there comes a time when the electorate says “now hang on a minute”, and the advantage passes to Labor who can oppose what the government is doing without the public accepting that Labor is soft on terror.</p>
<p>My feeling is that the Abbott government has narrowed itself to very few lines of attack – national security and union corruption – and it has overreached on both of them. So, using these issues becomes counter-productive, and it has too narrow a front to attack on. It can’t draw on a broader narrative that includes the economy and voters’ hip-pockets.</p>
<p>The Liberals are obviously aware of this, and they’ve launched a discussion on <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/treasurer-promises-tax-cuts-and-surplus/story-e6frfku9-1227497496346">reducing income tax rates</a>. But how can they sell tax cuts without dismantling the rest of their argument about restoring the budget?</p>
<p><strong>Q: We have two fairly unknown candidates representing the Labor and Liberal parties. Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie has already survived a media storm surrounding his time served in Afghanistan. What can you tell us about the candidates?</strong></p>
<p>A: I don’t think that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-hastie-liberal-byelection-candidate-led-troop-probed-for-chopping-hands-off-taliban-20150821-gj52lj.html">media attention</a> on Hastie and his time in Afghanistan was ever going to hurt him – certainly not without any evidence that he was involved with the controversies that happened there.</p>
<p>I don’t think that Hastie’s preselection was unplanned. He is a good fit for the electorate. Given the Liberal Party’s focus on national security, his background as an SAS officer is a great sell. So I’d doubt that his emergence was entirely down to the local party branches.</p>
<p>For Labor candidate Matt Keogh, I think Julie Bishop’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2015/s4298489.htm">jibe</a> that he’s a “hipster lawyer” might bite a little. It’s easy to sell the message that sure, he may have grown up in the area, but he lives in the trendy inner suburb of Mount Lawley and he is clearly part of the Labor political class.</p>
<p>The focus on the candidates, and the stories about Hastie, has been good for the Liberals. The less the focus is on national concerns the happier they’ll be. Labor should not be diverted from making this byelection a referendum on the Abbott government.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93598/original/image-20150902-13438-csii92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Matt Keogh was described by Julie Bishop as a ‘hipster Labor lawyer’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><strong>Q: The one issue that seems to be resonating with the electorate is crime, which is fundamentally a state issue. Hastie has <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pup-candidate-delays-canning-launch/story-e6frfku9-1227501108453">cleverly linked</a> this to the “ice epidemic”, which has recently been in the national news.</strong></p>
<p>A: It’s probably a smart move in terms of coherent Liberal Party messaging. “Why do we want a former SAS tough guy? Because he stood up to the Taliban and he’ll stand up to criminals.” </p>
<p>It also integrates with the government’s broader image, because issues where the public wants toughness are the ones where the government still has the advantage.</p>
<p><strong>Q: On the weekend the WA Labor Party resurrected its <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-30/mcgowan-in-metronet-pledge-at-wa-labor-state-conference/6735570">Metronet Rail System</a>. Abbott is on record saying the government doesn’t fund rail projects. Presumably Bill Shorten will promise the support of a future federal Labor government for the scheme. Does Labor have the makings of a wedge issue here?</strong></p>
<p>A: The Perth to Mandurah rail line was a great public policy success that everybody associates with the last state Labor government. Its main beneficiary was the Canning electorate. </p>
<p>Presumably Labor have thought this through and it’s not a coincidence that Metronet has been re-launched at this time. It would be very handy for parts of the electorate to have the Armadale line extended to Byford.</p>
<p>That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if a great part of the electorate could be mollified by the sort of big-ticket road funding that the Abbott government will be promising.</p>
<p><strong>Q: Do you think the proposed China FTA is going to be an issue?</strong></p>
<p>A: Western Australians are probably more likely to be supportive of the FTA given we see our economy as so dependent on China. So, there’s a tendency to think anything we can do to increase trade will be a good thing, even if it may be a bit rough around the edges.</p>
<p><strong>Q: And an FTA will open up the markets for our dairy and meat exporters.</strong></p>
<p>A: Yes. In 2007, WorkChoices didn’t resonate in WA because we were in a seller’s market for labour due to the boom. These sorts of labour market issues can play out quite differently here, where the economy is about resources and there isn’t so much manufacturing. So, the sentiment might be that we’re strong trading partners with China and need to do what we can to strengthen the relationship. </p>
<p><strong>Q: That’s fine if you’re selling something. But now that WA’s boom is over, what about labourers? Will the “we don’t want Chinese workers coming over here stealing our jobs” argument play a part?</strong></p>
<p>A: Well, yes, that sort of sentiment probably does resonate in a place like Armadale. As I said, it is blue-collar, it doesn’t have a large fly-in fly-out workforce as there aren’t a lot of people working in the mining industry there. </p>
<p>Also, unemployment is certainly becoming a problem in Armadale. I keep going back to Armadale versus Mandurah. They’re two different places with very different outlooks.</p>
<p><strong>Q: Any concluding observations you’d like to make about the campaign so far?</strong></p>
<p>A: Western Australia generally has Labor starting from a long way behind. Polling is showing a swing to Labor a couple of percent higher than the national average. The Liberals are at such a high watermark after the last federal election, and they’ve also been in power at the state level for a long time. </p>
<p>There’s a critical mass of people wanting to take a swing at the Liberal Party, either at the federal or state level. And if there is any anti-politician sentiment it’s less likely to be taken out on Labor. </p>
<p>There are an awful lot of factors at play here, which makes it really messy to analyse. But that also gives the leaders an array of things that they can use to spin the results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46282/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is the Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Bowe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two-and-a-half weeks out from polling day, Natalie Mast sat down with elections expert William Bowe to discuss the 12 candidates, the major parties’ campaigns, and key issues in Canning.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaWilliam Bowe, PhD Candidate, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/400532015-04-12T12:46:21Z2015-04-12T12:46:21ZCompeting interests and the crisis of governance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77681/original/image-20150412-20505-1artx88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In comedy timing is everything. So, too, in politics. In good times governing is – or ought to be – pretty straightforward. How hard can it be to divide up the windfall gains from a mining boom, for example? </p>
<p>But when the good times stop rolling political leaders and even the taken-for-granted institutions of governance are put to the test. The results are illuminating, but will do little to restore faith in the competence of our political leaders.</p>
<p>Nowhere illustrates Australia’s fluctuating economic and political fortunes better than Western Australia. No state benefited more from the resources boom. Nowhere looks likely to be harder hit by its abrupt but entirely foreseeable end. This state has been through similar booms and busts in the past. Cyclicality is, after all, the very nature of the resource trade.</p>
<p>Now that the very large wheels have – temporarily, at least – fallen off the iron ore trade, the new growth industry in WA is blame-shifting. There are plenty of potential scapegoats to go round. Premier Colin Barnett now claims that the resource majors that were so recently urged to ramp-up royalty-generating production are now engaged in something approaching collusive practices that are designed to depress prices and force marginal producers out of business.</p>
<p>It might be a bit late, but Barnett’s got a point. Rio Tinto and BHP plainly can continue to increase production and restructure the industry in this country in the process. But why should they do anything else? They are foreign companies with no particular loyalty to this country, much less the WA government. This just happens to be where the resources are. Their primary responsibility is to their shareholders – wherever they are. Tax “minimisation” in such circumstances is also entirely predictable if not obligatory.</p>
<p>It is regarded as rather bad form to point out that the “Australian” resource industry is <a href="http://qld7.ubox.greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/Foreign%20Ownership%20of%20Australian%20Mines.pdf">overwhelmingly foreign-owned</a>. But one doesn’t have to be mindlessly xenophobic to recognise that multinational corporations (MNCs) with a global logic may view the exploitation of resources in this country in a rather different light than the locals do. </p>
<p>Foreign MNCs may actually be better at digging things up and shipping them out than some of the local captains of industry are, so it’s not obvious why “we” should be any more enthusiastic about the latter than their foreign rivals.</p>
<p>But now that the overly optimistic projections about iron ore revenues have collapsed, the WA government is looking to Canberra to bail it out. The response from the other states is all too predictable. As Paul Keating famously said, never get between a state premier and a bucket of money. The idea that there is an unambiguous “national interest” has always been something of a convenient political myth. At times of economic and political stress it is revealed for the fiction it generally is.</p>
<p>What is most surprising about the current interstate brawl is the speed with which the S-word has been deployed. WA Treasurer Mike Nahan took the opportunity to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/11/gst-fight-joe-hockey-talks-privatisation-and-wa-brings-up-secessionist-past">remind</a> his state and Commonwealth counterparts about the secession referendum of 1933 when West Australians actually voted to withdraw from the Federation.</p>
<p>I don’t think even the most rabidly parochial Sandgropers are contemplating secession at this stage, but it does highlight the dysfunctional nature of our most fundamental political institutions. Our form of government is – in my view – an unfortunate product of unique historical circumstances. Federalism may have made sense at the founding of the country, but the duplication of responsibilities and the sheer number of politicians claiming to represent us at various levels of government looks unsupportable and unjustifiable these days. </p>
<p>It is ironic that when we are constantly nagged about the need to become more “efficient” and cost effective, our most basic political institutions are anything but. However, there is absolutely no chance of changing this system for all its obvious flaws. Which level of government would volunteer for the chop? Certainly not the two houses of state parliament, despite the fact that much larger cities around the world are effectively run by city councils. Shanghai has a larger population than the whole of Australia, but somehow gets by with a series of district governments.</p>
<p>Democracies are wonderful things, no doubt, but political classes of one sort or another can become self-serving vested interests, too. Australia’s multiple layers of government are anachronistic, costly and counter-productive. But like their counterparts in America they are almost impossible to change despite growing evidence of their dysfunctional nature and inability to pass much needed legislation and reform.</p>
<p>We are collectively suffering from a chronic and seemingly irreversible form of <a href="http://www.la.utexas.edu/users/chenry/core/Course%20Materials/PiersonWk4APSR2000/0.pdf">“path dependency”</a>. The past continues to shape the present in ways that reflect the interests of powerful groups of insiders, but which do little to help us address contemporary problems of governance and economic development. </p>
<p>The problems may be glaring; unfortunately, the solutions are not. In the meantime, don’t look to isolated, inward-looking and grumpy Western Australia for answers to what ought to be national problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In comedy timing is everything. So, too, in politics. In good times governing is – or ought to be – pretty straightforward. How hard can it be to divide up the windfall gains from a mining boom, for example…Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/330432014-10-15T23:04:09Z2014-10-15T23:04:09ZIs Colin Barnett a communist?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/61882/original/9kdd8xp3-1413409506.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Western Australia is an interesting place. No, really! True, lots of students from Asia think Perth’s a bit ‘quiet’, but at least local politics is getting a bit more exciting. Indeed, our state premier, Colin Barnett, seems to have been channelling Karl Marx to judge by some of his recent statements.</p>
<p>It’s not only the fact that comrade Colin famously declared that Beijing is more important to Western Australia than Canberra that leads some people – alright, just me so far, but keep reading – to think that our leader may have departed from the capitalist road. Remarkably and revealingly enough, the premier has launched an entirely unprovoked attack on some of the local captains of industry.</p>
<p>To be fair, I probably need to qualify the term ‘industry’ in this case. The target of premier Barnett’s outrage is the resource sector, which isn’t exactly a byword for the sort of sophisticated value-adding that we’ve suddenly decided might be worth preserving after all. The plutocratic potentates who are the subject of his ire are not that local either: Australia’s resource sector is actually overwhelmingly foreign-owned and controlled, of course.</p>
<p>Be that as it may, the reason I suspect that the premier may have become a closet Marxist – I put it no more strongly than that at this stage – is that his analysis of the resource sector’s activities bears an uncanny resemblance to the sort of thinking we imagined had become a discredited historical curiosity in the wake of the Soviet Union’s demise. </p>
<p>Radical left-wing readers of a shamelessly biased site such as The Conversation will need little reminding that one of Marx’s big ideas – key insights his apologists would claim – is that there is something inevitable about the concentration and centralisation of capital. In other words, there is a sort of Darwinian logic to the way big business operates as it drives out smaller, weaker producers.</p>
<p>The recent activities of Rio Tinto and BHP are, according to the man who seems to be Marx’s most influential local disciple, designed to achieve precisely that end. For those readers who think I’m making this up, let me quote Colin Barnett himself:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I find it a strange policy, indeed a flawed policy, that the major iron ore producers would be putting more and more product into a declining, soft market … I find it strange that the companies are acting seemingly in a concert way.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Strange, indeed, unless you’re a student of the Bearded One, of course. It’s worth remembering that premier Barnett was at one time a ‘university lecturer’, which as any informed person knows is generally a synonym for a self-indulgent, publicly funded whinger who is entirely out of touch – or even more worryingly, dissatisfied – with the real world.</p>
<p>Some might attribute the premier’s recent radicalism to the fact that WA’s financial position is a mess and the budget estimates are also wildly out of touch with reality. Barnett claims this is largely a consequence of the ‘conspiracy’ to drive down the price of iron ore and the royalties it generates. </p>
<p>In this regard the premier has no one but himself to blame, though. His government has indulged in a totally unjustified and unaffordable bout of infrastructure ‘investment’ that also bears an uncanny resemblance to the sort of thing they do in China – with equally disastrous effects.</p>
<p>It’s also important to remember what the premier’s principal intellectual influence predicted about the long-term fate of capitalism: it would inevitably be undone by its own supposed ‘internal contradictions’. Am I alone in thinking that the premier may be contemplating seceding and declaring the ‘People’s Republic of Western Australia’? Recent events in Scotland remind us anything is possible.</p>
<p>In this regard, at least, I don’t think we have too much to worry about, though. The market forces that the premier now seems to distrust if not despise have already worked their magic in this state. The resource sector now dominates both the economic and the political life of Western Australia. And let’s not forget that the miners also saw off that other ideological upstart, Kevin Rudd, who also knew a bit too much about China, come to think of it. </p>
<p>The mighty miners shouldn’t have too much trouble putting Barnett back in his box either. After all, iron ore royalties now account for more than 20% of the WA budget. Indeed, the resource sector might actually be doing the Barnett government a favour: the budget crisis is forcing the premier to give up on his left-wing agenda and push through cuts in the public sector and reduce wasteful infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>Barnett would be well advised to take another look at his Marxist text book. He needs to remember that the state is supposed to be ‘the executive committee of the bourgeoisie’, not its principal critic. Even his heroes in China have given up being communists. It’s about time the premier did, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Western Australia is an interesting place. No, really! True, lots of students from Asia think Perth’s a bit ‘quiet’, but at least local politics is getting a bit more exciting. Indeed, our state premier…Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253062014-04-07T01:39:00Z2014-04-07T01:39:00ZThe ALP becomes its own worst enemy in WA Senate shambles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45696/original/fyhxyvqy-1396757302.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Factional dealings saw Labor senator Louise Pratt demoted in favour of conservative union heavyweight Joe Bullock in the ALP's WA Senate ticket.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The only surprising factor in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-04/labor-powerbroker-bullock-sorry-over-attack-on-pratt/5367270">stories</a> regarding Joe Bullock, who held the number one position on the ALP Senate ticket at Saturday’s Western Australian Senate byelection, was that they took so long to break into wide circulation.</p>
<p>Bullock, who was <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-senate-results-labor-crashes-to-below-22-25304">elected</a> to the Senate on Saturday, managed to gain pole position on the ALP ticket around a year ago, in the lead-up to the September 2013 federal election.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/04/12/louise-pratt-shafted-in-wa-labor-senate-battle/">part of a deal</a> which saw left candidate Simone McGurk from Unions WA (the state version of the Australian Council of Trade Unions) <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/04/20/seat-of-the-week-hasluck/">gain pre-selection</a> for the state seat of Fremantle, Bullock, from the right-wing Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association (SDA), was able to leap-frog incumbent senator Louise Pratt, who is backed by the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. </p>
<p>Pratt took the number one position in 2007, which resulted in then-senator <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Webber">Ruth Webber</a> losing her seat. Her fate in the byelection is unclear as counting continues.</p>
<p>As a result of the deal, senator Mark Bishop, a former ally of Bullock’s and the traditional SDA candidate, <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/16748866/unions-gang-up-to-flick-alp-senator/">did not seek pre-selection</a> in 2013, having correctly viewed a third ALP seat as being unwinnable.</p>
<p>Pratt made her disappointment with the demotion known when she released the following post, which remains on Facebook:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45695/original/ht46xns8-1396754814.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>While the deal gained notice in February 2012 during the pre-selection process for the 2013 state election – and again in April 2013 when the WA candidates for the federal Senate were finalised – it remained a relatively low-key story. And it would have remained so, if not for the need to hold a new Senate election in Western Australia.</p>
<p>As the weekend’s results show, as long as the ALP allows union heavyweights to dominate the pre-selection process and nominate candidates at odds with the views of the general membership – and in this case, all left-leaning progressives in the electorate – they will continue to alienate voters.</p>
<h2>Senators on the hustings</h2>
<p>Senate positions are often provided to heavyweights in both major parties. They are able to focus on internal party politics and policy rather than the constituency work required by members of the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Ordinarily, Senate candidates don’t attract much attention in election campaigns, unless they hold a ministry or shadow ministry position. But ALP apparatchiks must have had their hearts in their mouths ever since the possibility of a re-election for six Western Australian Senate position was raised. They knew what an electoral liability Bullock could be.</p>
<p>Pratt, however, has a relatively high profile in many segments of the Western Australian electorate as a result of her time in state parliament. She has a strong personal following due to her support for <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-already-exist--stop-pretending-that-we-dont-20120921-26bpa.html">same-sex marriage</a> and her calls for action on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/scrap-carbon-tax-bill-defeated-senate">climate change</a>.</p>
<p>While Pratt, who holds her own when dealing with media, was seen out and about on the hustings, The West Australian newspaper had to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21951505/labor-rivals-put-unity-on-show/">lure out Bullock</a>, who managed to keep a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/wa-senate-poll-bill-shorten-plays-down-differences-with-labor-candidate">very low profile</a> during the first weeks of the campaign.</p>
<p>However, the focus shifted to Bullock in the last two weeks of the campaign as details of his conviction for unlawful assault in 1996 were <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22346340/labor-wa-candidate-has-assault-conviction/">revealed</a>. This was followed by the release of a recording of a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2014/apr/04/listen-wa-senator-joe-bullock-speech-in-full-audio">Q&A session</a> after a speech to the Dawson Society, a Christian group, in November last year.</p>
<p>The recording highlighted Bullock’s socially conservative views, his general disdain for progressives within the ALP and his sympathies with his <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbotts-former-ally-joe-bullock-could-be-his-downfall-in-the-senate/story-fncynjr2-1226874754555">old university friend Tony Abbott</a>, whom he claimed had the potential to be a “very good prime minister”.</p>
<p>Bullock was also forced to front the media to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22400366/joe-bullock-rules-out-leaving-the-labor-party-if-he-wins-office/">apologise for comments</a> he made about Pratt’s sexuality (she is openly gay) with Pratt by his side.</p>
<h2>Bullock’s views no surprise to the ALP</h2>
<p>Going into this election, the ALP was unable to offer the electorate anything by way of new policies or funding as the results of the Senate re-election would not lead to their winning government or even gaining the balance of power in the Senate. As a result, the ALP encouraged voters to consider the election as a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/clive-palmer-puts-liberals-third-seat-at-risk-in-wa-senate-vote-20140404-3646t.html">referendum on the Abbott government</a>.</p>
<p>The ALP can’t be held be responsible for <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/flight-mh370">flight MH370</a> dominating the news, the Greens using Scott Ludlam’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtqrfiEV8Gs">viral speech in the Senate</a> as a springboard for a strong campaign, or Clive Palmer’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/will-clive-palmers-splash-cash-work-in-wa-senate-race-20140404-36456.html">spending spree</a>. But they have no-one to blame but themselves for the Bullock debacle.</p>
<p>On Saturday, the <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/22400366/joe-bullock-rules-out-leaving-the-labor-party-if-he-wins-office/">lack of trust</a> with which Bullock is viewed internally was on display. Suggestions that he couldn’t be relied upon not to jump ship once in the Senate and could turn independent at some point during his six year term were raised.</p>
<p>The counting so far shows the ALP’s primary vote has dipped by 4.8% from its September 2013 result to 21.8%. Pratt did manage to put a bit of pressure back on Bullock when he was forced to wait while <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-05/joe-bullock-waits-for-louise-pratt-to-vote-below-the-line/5370140">she voted below the line</a>, preferencing herself first. </p>
<p>If Pratt does manage to get over the line, it will likely be as a result of her own personal following among ALP voters who voted below the line and the preferences of a number of left-leaning minor parties, who positioned her well above the other ALP and Liberal candidates.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45710/original/zzdvqcwv-1396829787.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bill Shorten should use the ALP’s poor results in Western Australia as a starting point for serious reform within the party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tim Clarke</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reform or wither</h2>
<p>Union power over pre-selection can be limited. John Smith was able to instigate reform in the British Labour Party, introducing the <a href="http://labourlist.org/2014/02/5-things-you-need-to-know-party-reform/">One Member One Vote</a> method to determine pre-selection in 1993, thereby reducing the power of the unions.</p>
<p>The ALP threw away the opportunity for reform when they failed to implement in full the 2010 <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2011/02/18/1226008/222073-labor-review-report.pdf">Bracks-Faulkner-Carr Review</a> recommendation of a tiered system of party primaries for the selection of candidates, which would have limited the influence of unions.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paul-howes-free-to-push-for-historic-split-between-labor-and-unions-20140324-35d3u.html">Paul Howes</a>, the high-profile former boss of the Australian Workers’ Union, gifted the ALP an opportunity with his recent comments that the relationship between the ALP and unions should be severed as it was damaging both parties. </p>
<p>Former Labor prime minister <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rein-in-union-influence-in-alp-says-bob-hawke/story-fn59niix-1226875063626">Bob Hawke</a> lent strength to the idea that the relationship needs to be reviewed on the weekend, as did former Labor senator <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-06/wa-senate-election3a-swing-away-from-major-parties/5370250">Chris Evans</a>, who admitted the Bullock scandal had harmed the Labor vote.</p>
<p>With the federal government <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/royal-commission-on-corruption-will-not-extend-to-building-industry-20140403-361f9.html">releasing</a> the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into Union Governance and Corruption, things are only going to get worse for Labor. </p>
<p>Bill Shorten should use the ALP’s poor results in Western Australia as a starting point for <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22435930/labor-push-to-cut-union-links/">serious reform within the party</a>. It is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/alp-union-member-rules-crazy-plibersek/story-fn3dxiwe-1226868989043">expected that he will announce</a> that the rule that all members of the ALP must be also be members of a union will be scrapped. </p>
<p>Until the ALP embrace reform, it’s difficult to see how they’ll break this pattern of self-harm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast represents the University of Western Australia on The Conversation's Editorial Board.</span></em></p>The only surprising factor in the stories regarding Joe Bullock, who held the number one position on the ALP Senate ticket at Saturday’s Western Australian Senate byelection, was that they took so long…Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Research Data & Strategy, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/198182014-02-18T19:12:07Z2014-02-18T19:12:07ZWhat issues will a WA Senate re-vote be fought on?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34654/original/vkss8hyn-1383801363.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What are the key issues the parties will campaign on in the almost-certain WA Senate re-vote?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It appears certain that Western Australians will vote in fresh Senate elections later this year. Following the initial vote last September and the recount – when 1375 votes were unable to be located – the High Court, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2014/5.html">declared</a> yesterday that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The only relief appropriate is for the election to be declared void.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While reserving its final judgment for Thursday, a new election to elect six senators seems to be an inevitability.</p>
<p>The court’s decision isn’t going to recast the political landscape. And yet it’s back to the polls that Western Australians will likely go. That means new candidates and new campaigns. And more fun – unless you’re feeling election fatigue (Western Australians did have state and local government elections as well as the federal election last year).</p>
<p>So, what will be the key issue areas a re-vote will be fought on?</p>
<h2>The major parties</h2>
<p>The Coalition will urge Western Australian voters to allow the Abbott government to govern. After all, it won a significant majority in the House of Representatives last September.</p>
<p>Prime minister Tony Abbott will generally play better in Western Australia than opposition leader Bill Shorten. They are both from “over east”, so neither really understands WA, but Abbott can run a pro-development line more believably than Shorten.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/bill-shortens-popularity-slides-in-poll-as-coalition-regains-pre-election-favour">Nielsen poll</a> appears to reflect Shorten’s inability to engage voters outside the party while he tries to rebuild inside the party. He is being outmanoeuvred in public, however much they lionise him inside the party.</p>
<p>Late last year, when a re-run was first mooted, some media outlets <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/wa-poll-re-run-to-target-tax-on-carbon/story-e6frfkp9-1226752427395">suggested</a> that the fresh election will be a referendum on the carbon tax. It is unlikely to be that simple. This is especially so if there is enough evidence to show that the carbon tax is working, which the IMF <a href="http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/539134/20140217/climate-change-direct-action-carbon-tax-repeal.htm#.UwK96LRqPEk">certainly thinks is the case</a>. </p>
<p>But an election re-run is likely to play out better for the conservatives. It is hard to see the Liberals losing or gaining a seat. It is more about the fate of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Greens.</p>
<p>Much of the hostility to Labor has been vented in Western Australia, so Coalition strategists shouldn’t assume they can rely on strong anti-Labor sentiments to carry them through. Presenting themselves as the government that has stopped asylum seekers will work well in WA, where arrivals by boat have had a greater impact than elsewhere. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-compares-secrecy-over-asylum-seekers-to-war-time-20140110-30lyt.html">secrecy</a> around asylum seekers coming by boat is making the public’s reaction to this issue hard to predict.</p>
<h2>State issues</h2>
<p>One problem for the Coalition is that Western Australians know the Abbott government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-20/federal-government-ignores-calls-from-states-for-increase-to-gst/4970916">won’t do anything</a> to increase the amount of Goods and Services Tax (GST) the state receives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34649/original/47smxpkh-1383800834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">WA premier Colin Barnett suffered an annus horribilis in 2013. Will state issues play a role in a WA Senate re-vote?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While it was never directly stated, the view that Labor had something to do with WA’s share of GST revenue was left conveniently – for the Coalition – in the air for much of last September’s federal election. Now it is clear that the Coalition will do nothing for a state government struggling, and failing, to balance its budget.</p>
<p>This is why Labor will want the election to be about the effectiveness of Coalition governments. The ALP campaign will attempt to shift the focus from federal Labor and use WA premier Colin Barnett’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gst-rebuff-and-credit-downgrade-add-to-barnetts-annus-horribilis-18478">woeful recent performance</a> as evidence that Coalition governments across Australia aren’t up to the challenges of governing.</p>
<p>Abbott will struggle to persuade people to support him because of his record. The federal government has done little so far that will have particularly impressed West Australians. The carbon and mining taxes are not such “hot” topics, so they do not carry the same weight. </p>
<h2>The Greens, PUP and microparties</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2013-brings-a-mixed-result-for-the-greens-17524">Greens</a> can regain ground if they can establish themselves as being necessary to moderate the excesses of the Abbott government, and to generally ensure that the government does not lose sight of the environment in pursuing jobs growth. </p>
<p>It would help, in Western Australia, for the Greens to articulate a conservative environmental position. This is not the state to be anything but conservative.</p>
<p>Incumbent senator Scott Ludlam, who was elected for the Greens in the recount, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-21/greens-senate-petition-rejected/5211302">argued to keep the recount</a> instead of publicly welcoming the challenge to respond to those who have turned away from the Greens. That would have sent the right message to voters.</p>
<p>The Greens are likely to join the Coalition and Labor in trying to make a re-run election about <a href="https://theconversation.com/micro-parties-win-on-the-big-boys-rules-18027">microparties</a> manipulating the voters to get candidates elected who gained very few first preference votes. Expect to see Glenn Druery - the so-called <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-04/preference-whisperer-in-demand-as-fresh-wa-senate-poll-likely/5068428">“preference whisperer”</a> - copping a lot of criticism. </p>
<p>The Greens ought to be careful with the microparties. Support for them expresses discontent with the system, which is also manifested in votes for the Greens. Dismissing other people’s discontent in favour of your discontent won’t win you friends. Besides, the Greens need to think about possibilities for working with any microparty candidates who are elected.</p>
<p>A re-vote solely in Western Australia provides the PUP with a great opportunity. The new party’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-palmer-united-party-came-out-barking-17979">success</a> in September’s election means that the PUP now represents a credible option for those attracted by a conservative approach. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/34635/original/k5fkss6d-1383797319.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party may have its electoral success in the WA Senate repeated in a re-vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Palmer’s very deep pockets will help the PUP to generate a significant profile in traditional and social media. So, the PUP can expect to repeat its (albeit voided) success of winning a Senate seat in WA. There’s always the chance that Palmer will say something to offend Western Australians, but he speaks fluent mining magnate, which is a language that people in the state understand well.</p>
<p>The mainstream media is helping the major parties’ attempts to make microparties appear sinister and manipulative, so we are likely to see people not trusting them with their “above the line” preferences.</p>
<p>The Sports Party, which <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/greens-win-senate-seat-in-wa-recount--taking-it-from-palmers-party-20131102-2wth4.html">won a seat</a> in the disputed recount despite gaining <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/wa/">just 0.23%</a> of the first preference vote, will also struggle.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/19818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It appears certain that Western Australians will vote in fresh Senate elections later this year. Following the initial vote last September and the recount – when 1375 votes were unable to be located…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.