tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/zoom-out-51632/articleszoom out – The Conversation2020-03-11T19:17:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1333502020-03-11T19:17:15Z2020-03-11T19:17:15ZWorking at home to avoid coronavirus? This tech lets you (almost) replicate the office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319776/original/file-20200311-116270-a890fn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C140%2C7182%2C4658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Working from home is already so common it has its own acronym, and it’s about to get even more common still. Companies <a href="https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/amazon-microsoft-apple-google-twitter-work-from-home-stanford-study.html">like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft</a> are now advising employees to “WFH” to avoid exposure to the novel coronavirus. </p>
<p>But working from home can be a real challenge for employees who find themselves doing it for the first time. To address this concern, many employees are turning to digital solutions to help them interact with colleagues and stay productive away from the office.</p>
<p>Here are some tech options for three styles of work: formal meetings, informal discussions, and team projects. But none of them, as we shall see, is without drawbacks.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">Coronavirus could spark a revolution in working from home. Are we ready?</a>
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<h2>Formal meetings</h2>
<p>The first question on most people’s minds is how to conduct meetings with colleagues or clients. One of the most common answers is <a href="https://zoom.us">Zoom</a>, a video communication platform that combines conferencing, online meetings, chat and mobile collaboration.</p>
<p>Zoom is widely used as an online substitute for formal meetings, and last week its <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-alert%3A-zoom-video-communications-rises-12-2020-03-05">share price surged by 12%</a> in anticipation that cornavirus quarantines will see it adopted even more widely. Among the platform’s selling-points are its ease of use, and ability to stream presentations as well as host meetings.</p>
<p>But while digital solutions like Zoom offer useful way for colleagues to meet, they are arguably less satisfactory for interacting with customers. Research <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/brand-connect/hilton/the-science-of-being-there/">suggests</a> that online meetings fail to deliver the same feelings of connection and empathy, compared with a face-to-face meeting. </p>
<h2>Informal discussions</h2>
<p>While video conferencing is useful for formal meetings, it is less appropriate for informal chats, brief queries or rapid status updates, such as “have you sent that invoice yet?”. This task is more suited to instant messaging platforms or group chat apps.</p>
<p>A common tactic is to use Facebook messenger, WhatsApp or gchat. But these can be distracting and intrusive, particularly at high volumes, causing workers to lose focus and concentration. </p>
<p>Many companies have instead adopted <a href="https://slack.com/intl/en-au/">Slack</a> and <a href="https://products.office.com/en-au/microsoft-teams/group-chat-software">Microsoft Teams</a>, which offer instant communication without the distraction of social media. IBM has reportedly adopted Slack for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ibm-slack-partnership-customer-digital-transformation-2020-2?r=AU&IR=T">all of its 350,000 employees</a>. And Slack has reportedly <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-06-20-intl-hnk/h_c28cf284cc1589e8947c08c270570731">asked its own employees</a> to work from home in response to the coronavirus outbreak, prompting wisecracks on social media about how they will stay in touch with one another.</p>
<p>But while these channels are great for zapping quick messages between team members, it can be hard to build real rapport. Research shows that being <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/09/how-to-build-the-social-ties-you-need-at-work">authentic, realistic and making time</a> with colleagues is a more natural way to build effective work relationships, and this is hard to do purely online. </p>
<h2>Team projects</h2>
<p>So much for meetings and chats – what about actual project management? Two options already in widespread use are <a href="https://www.google.com/drive/">Google Drive</a> and <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/about/en-au/">Microsoft One Drive</a>, which allow people to upload documents to the cloud and collaborate on them in real time. </p>
<p>These two platforms have already become the industry standard for sharing documents. But (and you may be sensing a theme here), sometimes team discussions require face-to-face conversations or brainstorms, which can <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/04/collaborating-online-is-sometimes-better-than-face-to-face">challenging to replicate in a purely online environment</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-isolation-working-from-home-has-surprising-downsides-107140">It's not just the isolation. Working from home has surprising downsides</a>
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<p>There’s no doubt that the coronavirus has struck at a time when we have more digital options than ever before, giving a wider range of employees the opportunity to work from home with minimal disruption. </p>
<p>But it’s also undeniable that people still need face-to-face interactions for companies to function at their best. The likes of Zoom, Slack and Google Drive will likely see an uptick in use during the epidemic, but once it’s over they should be considered complementary solutions rather than substitutions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Remote working is about to surge as companies around the world advise employees to stay away in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But nothing beats the effectiveness of face-to-face interactions.Geoffrey Mann, Sessional Lecturer, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1189112019-07-09T20:13:57Z2019-07-09T20:13:57ZFootprints on the Moon and cemeteries on Mars: interview with space archaeologist Alice Gorman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280133/original/file-20190619-118535-1un358h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C30%2C1549%2C983&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Perhaps in 50 more years we will be sick of hearing stories from people who have travelled to the moon and back. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tdlucas5000/15169386719/in/photolist-p7t5bk-bbc8Nk-a2VG2k-dVtS4a-5ZtE94-7tckyq-qmw69R-brQ6fu-9pNiAx-nuJZVA-n5fL3V-FQCqjE-azy5nj-nU7HGU-rpbARf-2bEY4Zm-oQJVBL-7rSzrR-8C8QNC-HxTL28-TH6cTU-egUSo9-2eFWuyY-qjf3bw-2ceKfRH-dRiJQ-28Vj1v9-66YB52-r48HYh-5cZcw3-bNAJTv-644Ln2-svpJrB-4YmBJ4-9TKuQx-ksGKxB-pxtazy-eiekoH-6D6J87-2fsCwbZ-p7dEzG-kfW4M9-pzrf4T-RjFzFn-21V2sin-Xh1wRV-f9GoEC-JSdya-98yVvH-Ek13RD">tdlucas5000 / AAP</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Alice Gorman is a space archaeologist working on space junk in Earth orbit, deep space probes, and planetary landing sites. She explores what we can learn from these items and places as material objects, and also their heritage significance – what they actually mean for people and communities on Earth.</em></p>
<p><em>Alice features in The Conversation’s podcast series <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-the-moon-and-beyond-2-how-humanity-reacted-to-the-moon-landing-and-why-it-led-to-conspiracy-theories-120046">To the Moon and beyond</a>, published to mark the 50th anniversary of the Moon landing of July 1969. This is an edited extract from Alice’s interview with The Conversation’s Sarah Keenihan, published as part of our occasional series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>.</em></p>
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<p>There is a lot of documentation about what’s been left on the Moon – but it’s amazing how much we don’t know. </p>
<p>There are things that have gone missing, like part of a thermal blanket that got ripped off a landing module. There are things that may have gone up there that we didn’t know about. An Apollo test module went walkabout in solar orbit and has only recently <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/astronomers-are-98-sure-they-ve-found-snoopy-the-missing-apollo-capsule-drifting-in-space">been found again</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-shadows-on-the-moon-a-tale-of-ephemeral-beauty-humans-and-hubris-114077">Friday essay: shadows on the Moon - a tale of ephemeral beauty, humans and hubris</a>
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<p>This is actually where archaeology becomes interesting. I don’t believe, for example, that anyone has ever fully documented the position of all of the boot prints of the Apollo astronauts on the Moon. </p>
<p>We know what they look like. We know that they’re there. They’re reproduced in countless photographs of the Apollo sites. </p>
<p>But has anyone ever actually catalogued them? Has anyone studied them for what they can tell us about how these human bodies moved across the lunar landscape, how they adapted to this environment so different to that of Earth? </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280395/original/file-20190620-149822-1be50if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Footprints, wheel tracks and the Rickshaw–type portable workbench on the Moon, with the US flag in 1971.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details-as14-66-09325.html">NASA</a></span>
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<p>What archaeology does is look at the difference between what people say they do, and what they actually do. Those footprints may reveal that astronauts were doing things that they didn’t even consciously recognise, since they didn’t speak about them or record them. </p>
<p>If you did an archaeological study of those footprints, we would expect to see differences from Apollo 11 through to Apollo 17. </p>
<p>We ought to be able to see the evidence of how each astronaut crew incorporated the knowledge of the previous one, and how the design of the suits and the equipment was changed or adapted from each previous mission. We should be able to actually chart this using physical evidence. </p>
<h2>Protecting the Moon’s heritage</h2>
<p>We must be strategic in how we protect our heritage on the Moon.</p>
<p>In 1969 the Apollo 12 mission landed just 180 metres away from <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/surveyor-3/in-depth/">Surveyor 3</a> – a robotic landing craft the US sent to the Moon in 1967. The astronauts approached Surveyor 3 and removed a camera and some other bits and pieces to take back to Earth. </p>
<p>When NASA <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/missions/apollo/apollo_12/experiments/surveyor/">analysed the materials</a>, they found that the landing of Surveyor 3 itself plus the landing of Apollo 12 just on the edge of the crater had blown up lunar dust, which had abraded surfaces. </p>
<p>This gave us an idea of the dangers of lunar dust for human-manufactured materials. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280397/original/file-20190620-149843-1kubmrm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Astronaut Alan Bean was part of the Apollo 12 lunar landing mission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details-AS12-46-6780.html">NASA</a></span>
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<p>A lot of the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/05/06/the-race-to-develop-the-moon">new missions being planned</a> at the moment are talking about going to the Apollo and other sites, and removing samples for analysis that they can use to to gauge the impact of the lunar environment on human materials. </p>
<p>This is obviously extremely useful for planning missions further into the future, but at the moment there isn’t any sort of systematic way to do this. They could approach the Apollo sites and in the process completely erase all of those footprints and cause further damage by stirring up the lunar dust again. </p>
<p>There is an archaeological principle that you never excavate all of a site. You always leave an unexcavated deposit, or you leave rock art on the walls. You leave material for future scientists to sample because we don’t know what techniques will be available in the future. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-archaeologists-dropped-the-term-stone-age-decades-ago-and-so-should-you-47275">Australian archaeologists dropped the term 'Stone Age' decades ago, and so should you</a>
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<p>If we look at this from an archaeological perspective first of all, we ought to be sitting down and thinking: OK, what materials do we really need to collect? We’ve got the baseline from Surveyor 3 – what are the best materials to compare to that? </p>
<p>Perhaps we don’t need to take physical samples. We may have techniques we can use to remotely gather data from these sites without being destructive. </p>
<p>We also need to consider access to data. Let’s just say a Space X lunar mission visits a previous landing site – maybe one of the Apollo ones, and removes samples, studies them now. These objects are the property of the US government under the Outer Space Treaty. But SpaceX is a private company. Are they required to share the results of this analysis with their competitors? </p>
<p>This is something I haven’t seen much discussion about yet, but it needs to be worked out as everybody’s planning to go back to the Moon.</p>
<h2>Cemeteries in space</h2>
<p>It’s 50 years since humans went to the Moon – and now people are so focused on getting to Mars. </p>
<p>But what happens when another planet becomes home, when the first generations are born, live, and just as importantly, die in space? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-up-a-century-ago-a-vision-of-the-future-of-space-exploration-89859">Looking up a century ago, a vision of the future of space exploration</a>
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<p>I often think the first death in space is going to be a big turning point for how we relate to it. There haven’t really been any so far. There was the unfortunate <a href="https://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/SP-4209/ch5-6.htm">USSR Soyuz 11 mission</a> to Earth orbit, where three cosmonauts died when they left the spacecraft – but they were recovered on Earth. [The crew died on their descent back to Earth after a technical fault caused their Soyuz capsule to depressurise.]</p>
<p>There have been other deaths, for example on the tragic <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-space-travel-accidents-that-shaped-the-modern-era-33759">Space Shuttle accidents</a>, but they haven’t actually been in space. </p>
<p>It’s something people often overlook when talking about the prospect of settling on Mars. The risks are so great. People are going to die. They’re probably going to die if there’s any human settlement on the Moon as well. </p>
<p>So how will that impact how we look at space? </p>
<p>The first living things have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/change-probe-china-cotton-seeds-moon-dies/10723336">already died on the Moon</a>. The recent experiment in the rover deployed by China had little seeds inside that sprouted and then died. </p>
<p>Death is already “off Earth”, and we can expect more deaths in the future. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280396/original/file-20190620-149847-rvbtoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Who will be the first person to be buried on Mars?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/western_sahara_project/75746659/in/photolist-7GdQT-pwq7xV-8UXGoH-8UXGU2-2esdFM1-J6Q8xT-bndkJX-2dAKpgw-reoHqQ-4rdLds-bmPvfR-4rdLhq-4rdL3h-QHzTTg-8ZFtWN-2cm7Wej-4LbWLQ-22fMfJp-CkLYp-amVBhS-4r9EHk-UtSaEZ-5DzFdX-amSN3g-5DzF9F-6Uetj7-8jky8T-amVALL-2xg4of-fyW59k-9nUXCZ-ddFsjw-6CT3H8-71iYPw-amVAtJ-amVAAS-RLCY4B-pwsd6s-Q5PR-2cm7Wh5-YitRNM-YitS6v-Ej14AJ-2cm7Wbo-UQfRqx-23CJZiY-Fq2zkc-25hCqdZ-uq55vy-2cm7WcW">Nick Brookes / flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>This is going to have to change how we feel about space. When we look at those planets in the sky and think there are cemeteries there; perhaps there are human bodies being incorporated into the lunar <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/regolith">regolith</a> or into the red Martian dust. </p>
<p>How does that make these places feel to us if they become cemeteries? </p>
<h2>The Moon in 2069</h2>
<p>In terms of sites on the Moon right now, there are around 50 different places where human culture has landed, and they’re quite diverse. A huge amount of <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/lunarussr.html">USSR stuff</a>, a huge amount of US stuff – but also <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon">Japanese and Indian and Chinese</a>.</p>
<p>If we look 50 years into the future I expect that landscape will be even more diverse. We will have many countries who maybe at the moment are not considered to be spacefaring, but who will have sent their own missions to the Moon. Or maybe they’ve had experiments that are part of other people’s missions. Maybe they’ve sent their own astronauts. </p>
<p>I think the Moon is going to be culturally very diverse, with an archaeological record that reflects all of those different cultures as well. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trash-or-treasure-a-lot-of-space-debris-is-junk-but-some-is-precious-heritage-82832">Trash or treasure? A lot of space debris is junk, but some is precious heritage</a>
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<p>We can also expect there will be mining installations. It’s likely these will be focused on the lunar poles, in craters where the Sun has not shone for 2 billion years. They’ve been in deep shadow all this time. They’re filled with this valuable resource people can use for fuel: <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/ice-confirmed-at-the-moon-s-poles">water ice</a>. So the craters might be the industrial centres of future lunar industries. </p>
<p>We may not see all of this from the surface of the Earth – but there will be satellites constantly streaming back footage of the surface, so we can see what’s going on there. </p>
<p>We might have our particular astronauts we like to follow. There might be constant updates on social media streams about what what they’re doing on the Moon. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280398/original/file-20190620-149806-2d1pt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A close-up view of the face of astronaut and Apollo 10 commander Thomas P. Stafford in 1969. Astronauts are already very active in social media and this is likely to increase.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.nasa.gov/details-S69-33999.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We may be very intimately involved in the daily lives of these astronauts.</p>
<p>It’s likely there will be a form of lunar tourism, which involves us projecting ourselves into robots and going for a little jaunts across the lunar surface.</p>
<p>But I suspect the lunar tourism industry may not completely take off in the way people are imagining – simply because there will be too much at stake in protecting proprietary information about technologies and resources on the Moon. </p>
<p>In the future it won’t be rare anymore to think about being an astronaut. At the moment, over <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name">500 people</a> have been in space. Only those very few Apollo astronauts have been to the Moon. </p>
<p>Looking forwards, there’ll be hundreds of people who’ve been to the Moon and back, maybe even thousands. These experiences may not be rare and extraordinary anymore. </p>
<p>We might get sick of hearing people tell their stories about the work they did on the Moon. Maybe this will be commonplace. The Moon will just be like thinking about Antarctica. It’s remote, but still part of our world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118911/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alice Gorman is the Co-Deputy Chair of the Space Industry Association of Australia and a member of the Heritage Committee of For All Moonkind.</span></em></p>In the future we might get sick of hearing people tell their stories about going to the Moon. Perhaps the Moon will just be like thinking about today’s Antarctica – a remote but accessible place.Alice Gorman, Senior Lecturer in Archaeology and Space Studies, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1189982019-06-20T20:02:33Z2019-06-20T20:02:33Z30 years since Australia first connected to the internet, we’ve come a long way<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280347/original/file-20190620-171183-16vpzce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=520%2C305%2C4446%2C2919&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Out of the science labs, our internet connectivity is now part of our everyday lives.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/AngieYeoh </span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>When Australia joined the global internet on June 23, 1989 – via a connection made by the University of Melbourne – it was mostly used by computer scientists.</p>
<p>Three decades later, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8146.0">more than 86% of Australian households</a> are connected to the internet.</p>
<p>But it was a slow start. At first, network capacity was limited to very small volumes of information.</p>
<p>This all changed thanks to the development of vastly more powerful computers, and other technologies that have transformed our online experience.</p>
<p>One of those technologies is probably in front of you now: the screen.</p>
<p>Look at how you view the web, email and apps today: not just on large desktop screens but also handheld devices, and perhaps even an internet-connected wristwatch. </p>
<p>This was barely imaginable 30 years ago. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280351/original/file-20190620-171208-7wnul9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today you can get share price updates on your internet connected Apple Watch.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/shinyasuzuki/17281936100/">Flickr/Shinya Suzuki</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Connected to the world</h2>
<p>By the time Australia <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-australia-connected-to-the-internet-25-years-ago-28106">first connected</a>, the internet had been developing for 20 years. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/ARPANET">very first network</a> had been turned on in the United States in 1969.</p>
<p>Australia too had networks during the 1980s, but distance and a lack of interest from commercial providers meant these were isolated from the rest of the world.</p>
<p>This first international link provided just 56 kilobits of national connectivity. A 20th of a megabit for the whole country! That is not even enough to play a single piece of music from a streaming service (encoded at 128kbs), and it would take a week for a movie to be transferred to Australia.</p>
<p>But at that time digital music, video and images were not distributed online. Nor was the internet servicing a large community. Most of the users were academics or researchers in computer science or physics.</p>
<p>With continuous connection came live access. The most immediate impact was that email could now be delivered immediately. </p>
<p>At first, email and internet news groups (discussion forums) were the main traffic, but the connection also gave access to information sharing services such as Archie (an old example <a href="http://archie.icm.edu.pl/archie_eng.html">here</a>) and <a href="https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/WAIS-Wide-Area-Information-Servers">WAIS</a>, which were mostly used to share software.</p>
<p>There was connection too, in principle at least, to the <a href="https://home.cern/science/computing/birth-web">newly created world wide web</a>, which in June 1989 was just three months old and largely unknown. It wouldn’t become significant for another four years or so.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280361/original/file-20190620-171271-5cqj6m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=642&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An early version of the first web page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://info.cern.ch/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html">CERN/Screengrab</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This turning-on of a connection was not a “light in a darkened room” moment, in which we suddenly had access to the resources that are now so familiar to us.</p>
<p>But it was a crucial step, one of several developments maturing in parallel that created the technology that has so drastically transformed our society, commerce and daily lives. Within just a few years we were surfing the web and sending email from home.</p>
<h2>The technology develops</h2>
<p>The first of these developments was the internet itself, which was and is a cobbling-together of disparate networks around the globe. </p>
<p>Australia had several networks, ranging from the relatively open ACSNET (now called <a href="https://www.aarnet.edu.au/">AARNET</a>) created by computer science departments to connect universities to, at the other extreme, proprietary, secure networks operated by defence and industry.</p>
<p>When Melbourne opened that first link, it provided a bridge from ACSNET to the networks in the United States and from there to the rest of the world.</p>
<p>Just as important were developments in the underlying technology. At the time, the capacity of the networks was adequate - just. As the community of users rapidly grew, it sometimes seemed as though the internet might utterly break down.</p>
<p>By the mid-1990s <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/38401/bandwidth">bandwidth</a> (the volume of digital traffic that a network can carry) increased to an extent that earlier had seemed unimaginable. This provided the data transmission infrastructure the web would come to demand.</p>
<p>Another development was computing hardware. Computers were doubling in speed every 18 months, as <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/moores-law-to-roll-on-for-another-decade/">had been predicted</a>. They also became much cheaper. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280363/original/file-20190620-171183-11e7k1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=704&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Macintosh desktop computer from 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/befuddledsenses/4453362124/">Flickr/Luke Jones</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Computer disks were also growing in capacity, doubling in size every year or so. The yet-to-appear web would require disk space for storage of web pages, and compute capacity for running <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/51154/server">servers</a>, which are applications that provide a door into a computer, giving users remote access to data and software.</p>
<p>In the 1980s these had been scarce, expensive resources that would have been overwhelmed by even small volumes of web traffic. By the early 1990s growth in capacity could – just – accommodate the demand that suddenly appeared and homes were being connected, via dial-up at first.</p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="36" data-image="" data-title="Dial-up internet connection" data-size="347600" data-source="SoundBible/ezwa" data-source-url="http://soundbible.com/136-Dial-Up-Modem.html" data-license="" data-license-url="">
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<div class="audio-player-caption">
Dial-up internet connection.
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" rel="nofollow" href="http://soundbible.com/136-Dial-Up-Modem.html">SoundBible/ezwa</a><span class="download"><span>339 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/1618/dial-up-modem-soundbible-com-909377495.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
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<h2>A new operating system</h2>
<p>But it is a third concurrent development that is, to me, the most remarkable. </p>
<p>This is the emergence of the <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/53459/unix">UNIX</a> operating system and of a community of people who collaboratively wrote UNIX-based code for free (yes, for no charge). Their work provided what is arguably the core of the systems that underpin the modern world.</p>
<p>UNIX was created by <a href="https://www.computerhistory.org/fellowawards/hall/dennis-ritchie/">Dennis Ritchie</a>, <a href="https://www.computerhistory.org/fellowawards/hall/ken-thompson/">Ken Thompson</a> and a small number of colleagues at AT&T Bell Labs, in the US, from 1970.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280368/original/file-20190620-171208-1vpo7z4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ken Thompson and Dennis Richie with DEC PDP-11 system running UNIX.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ken_Thompson_(sitting)_and_Dennis_Ritchie_at_PDP-11_(2876612463).jpg">Wikimedia/Peter Hamer</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At that time, operating systems (like iOS on today’s Apple phones) were limited to a single type of computer. Code and programs could not be used across machines from different manufacturers.</p>
<p>UNIX, in contrast, could be used on any suitable machine. This is the reason UNIX variants continue to provide the core of Apple Mac computers, Android phones, systems such as inflight entertainment and smart TVs, and many billions of other devices.</p>
<h2>The open source movement</h2>
<p>Along with UNIX came a culture of collaborative code development by programmers. This was initially via sharing of programs sent on tape between institutions as parcels in the mail. Anyone with time to spare could create programs and share them with a community of like-minded users.</p>
<p>This became known as the open source movement. Many thousands of people helped develop software of a diversity and richness that was beyond the resources of any single organisation. And it was not driven by commercial or corporate needs.</p>
<p>Programs could embody speculative innovations, and any developer who was frustrated by errors or shortcomings in the tools they used could update or correct them.</p>
<p>A key piece of open source software was the <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/51154/server">server</a>, a computer system in a network shared by multiple users. Providing anonymous users with remote access was far from desirable for commercial computers of the era, on which use of costly computing time was tightly controlled.</p>
<p>But in an academic, sharing, open environment such servers were a valuable tool, at least for computer scientists, who were the main users of university computers in that era.</p>
<p>Another key piece of open source software was the <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/50637/router">router</a>, which allowed computers on a network to collaborate in directing network requests and responses between connected machines anywhere on the planet.</p>
<p>Servers had been used for email since the beginnings of the internet and initially it was email, delivered with the help of routers, that brought networked desktop computing into homes and businesses.</p>
<p>When the web was proposed, extending these servers to allow the information from web page servers to be sent to a user’s computer was a small step.</p>
<h2>What you looking at?</h2>
<p>The last component is so ubiquitous that we forget what is literally before our eyes: the screen. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280381/original/file-20190620-171258-v5h79j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Macintosh Plus had a screen resolution of 512x342 pixels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/raneko/13507827355/">Flickr/raneko</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Affordable computer displays in the 1980s were much too limited to pleasingly render a web page, with resolutions of 640x480 pixels or lower, with crude colours or just black and white. Better screens, starting at 1024x768, first became widely available in the early 1990s.</p>
<p>Only with the appearance of the <a href="http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/enabling/mosaic">Mosaic browser</a> in 1993 did the web become appealing, with a pool of about 100 web sites showing how to deliver information in a way that for most users was new and remarkably compelling.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BLcBZ2_k1OI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How things have changed.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The online world continues to grow and develop with access today via cable, wireless and mobile handsets. We have internet-connected services in our homes, cars, health services, government, and much more. We live-stream our music and video, and share our lives online.</p>
<p>But the origin of that trend of increasing digitisation of our society lies in those simple beginnings - and the end is not yet in sight.</p>
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<p><em>This article was amended at the request of the author to correct the amount of data accessible from the initial link.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118998/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Zobel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In just three decades we’ve gone from a very limited internet connection in Australia to now sharing our lives online.Justin Zobel, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Graduate & International Research, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1164482019-05-09T20:07:52Z2019-05-09T20:07:52ZTen ethical flaws in the Caster Semenya decision on intersex in sport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273417/original/file-20190508-183103-1eva5jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Caster Semenya is legally female, was from birth raised as female and identifies as a female.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ciamabue/7968832970/in/photolist-d9bmpU-6WYxJP-gbWqNq-faB1Ei-d2L35o-QYHomP-aciLfF-X6bjAG-27BHwNd-doMJTN-cT2bCb-RNztaz-cTaov7-74mBHV-cUT2rq-dXYK7q-cRCJDY-cQ9hZQ-RoFRBk-24xxRw2-8RuT7h-cUSVzh-dyUu74-dyUuRP-o4j6Zs-d6XYyN-74qwom-cUT6A5-d6XYpL-dyZXuN-6Rdv6M-d6XYw5-a9coyA-6YGtw4-dyZZsS-dyUuyt-d6XYdN-dyUuKK-25Xb6zb-dyZXsq-dyUuWM-25Xb5Zd-dyZXKL-dyZY9s-dyZXvw-dyZYfL-dyZXES-dyUtKa-dyZXq7-dyZXLW">Jon Connell on flickr </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This essay is part of our occasional series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Middle-distance runner Caster Semenya will need to take hormone-lowering agents, or have surgery, if she wishes to continue her career in her chosen athletic events.</p>
<p>The Court of Arbitration in Sport (<a href="https://www.tas-cas.org/en/index.html">CAS</a>) <a href="https://www.tas-cas.org/en/general-information/news-detail/article/semenya-asa-and-iaaf-executive-summary.html">decided last week</a> to uphold a rule requiring athletes with certain forms of what they call “disorders of sex development” (DSD) – more commonly called “intersex” conditions – to lower their testosterone levels in order to still be eligible to compete as women in certain elite races. </p>
<p>The case was brought to CAS by Semenya, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/caster-semenyas-impossible-situation-testosterone-gets-special-scrutiny-but-doesnt-necessarily-make-her-faster-116407">she argued discrimination</a> linked to a 2018 decision preventing some women, including herself, from competing in some female events. </p>
<p>This ruling is flawed. On the basis of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20702382">science and ethical reasoning</a>, there are ten reasons CAS’s decision does not stand up. </p>
<p>But first let’s take a quick look at the biology involved.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/caster-semenya-how-much-testosterone-is-too-much-for-a-female-athlete-116391">Caster Semenya: how much testosterone is too much for a female athlete?</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/48128682">Semenya underwent medical testing in 2009</a>: at the time she was told it was a doping test. The results are confidential, but it has been widely reported that she does have an intersex condition. It seems reasonable to assume she has XY chromosomes, as she is covered by the CAS ruling. Her testosterone levels have not been disclosed, but since the ruling applies to her, they must almost certainly be in what they classify as the “male range”.</p>
<p>According to CAS, the DSD regulations require athletes who want to compete in some female events, who have XY chromosomes and in whom testosterone has a biological effect to reduce their natural testosterone levels to an agreed concentration (below 5 nmol/L). </p>
<p>In women referred to as “46 XY DSD” – the most common intersex condition among female athletes – the presence of a Y chromosome causes the development of testes. These do not descend from the abdomen but do produce testosterone. However the receptors for testosterone are abnormal, with the result that the individual develops as female with a vagina, but no ovaries or uterus. Circulating testosterone may have no biological effect in the case of complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (AIS), or some effect in partial AIS.</p>
<p>Now let’s consider what’s wrong with the ruling. </p>
<h2>1. It confuses sex with gender</h2>
<p>Sex refers to biology, and gender refers to social role or self-identification. In sport, the definition of male and female used to be based solely on sex. <a href="https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/39/10/695.info">This was assessed anatomically in the 1960s</a>, then by biological tests such as the presence of a structure called a “Barr body” in cells (found only in genetic females), or the gene for testicular development. </p>
<p>Sex determination was abandoned in the 1990s in favour of gender. From the 2000 Sydney Olympics forwards, <a href="https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/39/10/695.info">there were no tests of gender other than self-identification</a>. </p>
<p>Caster Semenya’s gender is uncontroversially female. She is legally female, was from birth raised as female and identifies as a female. So, on the current definition, Semenya is a female. Indeed, there has been no question of her gender.</p>
<p>Sex determination itself is not simple, with chromosomal, gonadal (presence of ovaries or testes), or secondary sex characteristics (physical) all possible definitions that would include or exclude different groups. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-you-a-man-or-a-woman-geneticist-jenny-graves-explains-102983">What makes you a man or a woman? Geneticist Jenny Graves explains</a>
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<p>The CAS decision relates to “XY females with disorders of sexual development.” XY denotes the male sex chromosomes. This reverts back to the old biological categories. Behind this ruling is the view that Semenya is really a man competing in the women’s category. This view is embodied beautifully in an article entitled “<a href="https://quillette.com/2019/05/03/a-victory-for-female-athletes-everywhere/">A victory for female athletes everywhere</a>.” </p>
<p>But Semenya is a female by the rules used by the International Association of Athletics Federations (<a href="https://www.iaaf.org/home">IAAF</a>) – so she should be allowed to compete to the best of her potential in her category.</p>
<p>An alternative is to retreat to the old sex-based definition based on the presence of a Y chromosome. But that carries its own questions on definitions, and also comes at great political and individual cost. It would imply that Semenya is a male with a disorder of sexual development. </p>
<h2>2. It discriminates against some forms of hyperandrogenism</h2>
<p>Hyperandrogenism is a term used to describe high levels of testosterone. </p>
<p>But the CAS decision does not cover all forms of hyperandrogenism. It only refers to women who have XY chromosomes, such as <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/androgen-insensitivity-syndrome/">partial androgen insensitivity syndrome (AIS)</a>. </p>
<p>It does not cover a condition called <a href="https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/diseases/1467/congenital-adrenal-hyperplasia">congenital adrenal hyperplasia</a>, which can cause elevated levels of testosterone in women with XX chromosomes. </p>
<p>The implication is that XX females are real women, while those with XY chromosomes are not. </p>
<h2>3. It’s based on inadequate science</h2>
<p>The significant problem in partial AIS is that although testosterone is elevated in the blood, the receptors for testosterone do not respond to the hormone in the usual way. That is why these individuals have typical external female physical characteristics. </p>
<p>While the testosterone may have some impact on how the body works, it is impossible to quantify how much effect it is having. For example, the difference testosterone makes between males and females in all events is estimated to be <a href="https://sportsscientists.com/2019/05/on-dsds-the-theory-of-testosterone-performance-the-cas-ruling-on-caster-semenya/">up to 12% (all other items being equal)</a>. But Semenya’s best time is only <a href="https://shows.pippa.io/the-science-of-sport-podcast/episodes/the-caster-semenya-decision-explained">2% faster than her competitors</a>. It is not possible to determine how much of this 2% is due to testosterone, and how much due to other factors about her as an athlete, or her psychology.</p>
<p>The study on which the current decision is based contains only correlations and is flawed in several ways, with a call for its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40318-019-00143-w">retraction on scientific grounds</a>. It is a single study, conducted by the IAAF and the full data have not been released for independent replication. The sole ground for the claim that Semenya derives “material androgenizing effect” (that is, biological impact) appears to be the “statistical over-representation of female athletes with 46 XY DSD” in the relevant events, as documented in this single, poorly conducted study.</p>
<p>Even if Semenya’s times were to drop after the reduction of testosterone, this could be a side-effect of the drugs used to reduce testosterone, or a function of reductions in mental or physical functions which are themselves legitimate entitlements of the athlete. </p>
<p>Her body has grown up in the presence of a certain level of testosterone of uncertain function. Our bodies are complex, and still poorly understood. A change of this kind may lead to unexpected results. Some of these reductions in functions may be unjust. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/testosterone-why-defining-a-normal-level-is-hard-to-do-113587">Testosterone: why defining a 'normal' level is hard to do</a>
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<p>No one has given a complete description of the role of testosterone in someone like Semenya, nor how much it ought to be reduced to achieve a supposedly fair outcome. The comparisons are only with XX chromosome women, who have a very different physiology and normal functioning testosterone receptors. </p>
<p>Put simply, a level of 5 nMol/L testosterone is meaningless in Semenya’s case because the receptors are not responding in the usual way. It does not achieve a “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20702382">level hormonal playing field</a>”. </p>
<p>This is an example of “decimal point science smokescreen.” There is the impression of much greater confidence and sensitivity than the science warrants by appealing to figures with multiple decimal points. The science around testosterone in intersex conditions is poorly understood, let alone as it applies to individuals. This is a level chosen for convenience, not a level that will negate any perceived advantage, but go no further.</p>
<h2>4. It’s inconsistent with values of sport and human rights</h2>
<p>The self-professed values of sport include the <a href="https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/wada_ethicspanel_setofnorms_oct2017_en.pdf">development of one’s own talent</a> . </p>
<p>Yet Semenya is asked to cobble her natural potential as a female competitor. She must take risky biological interventions to reduce her performance. </p>
<p>The United Nations Human Rights Council has stated that the regulations <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-clear-where-human-rights-fit-in-the-legal-ruling-on-athlete-caster-semenya-116417">contravene human rights</a> “including the right to equality and non-discrimination […] and full respect for the dignity, bodily integrity and bodily autonomy of the person”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-clear-where-human-rights-fit-in-the-legal-ruling-on-athlete-caster-semenya-116417">It's not clear where human rights fit in the legal ruling on athlete Caster Semenya</a>
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<h2>5. It’s inconsistent with treatment of other athletes</h2>
<p>Other women with disorders resulting in higher than expected levels of testosterone, such as congenital adrenal hyperplasia, are not required to reduce their biological advantage.</p>
<p>Competitors with genetic mutations causing increases in red blood cell mass, and who experience enhanced oxygen-carrying capacity as a result, are not required to reduce their biological levels. </p>
<p>The Finnish skier Eero Mäntyranta had a genetic mutation that boosted his red blood cell count by 25-50% (he produced more blood hormone erythropoetin, or EPO). He and won several Olympic medals with this <a href="https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/37/3/192.full.pdf">natural form of doping</a>. </p>
<h2>6. It’s unjust</h2>
<p>The decision is unjust in several ways. </p>
<p>Firstly, it was the IAAF which moved from sex to gender definition of female in 1990s. Semenya has entered competition, trained and competed fairly under the rules. To change them now will be undermine her capacity to compete, work and live, after a lifetime of investment. </p>
<p>If the rules are to be changed, they should not affect athletes who agreed to the current rules, but future athletes. There should be a “grandmother clause” for current athletes, like Semenya or else they are unfairly burdened by the bungles of the IAAF. Even if these rules could be considered justified, they should apply to future athletes as soon as possible after puberty.</p>
<p>Secondly, justice is about giving priority to the worst off in our society – but this ruling adds disadvantage to the worst off. Those with intersex conditions are already stigmatised, discriminated against, in many cases cannot bear children even if they want to. They are the socially disadvantaged. This ruling adds further discrimination and disadvantage.</p>
<p>Thirdly, it sets back integration of intersex people, by stigmatising and marginalising them. We have told them: be yourself, society will accept you. But this sends the message: you are really male, we don’t accept you, you should be castrated.</p>
<h2>7. It is an inappropriate reaction to fear of a ‘slippery slope’</h2>
<p>At the heart of this decision is the fear of displacement of cisgender women on the podia by increasing debate over transgender athletes. <a href="https://quillette.com/2019/05/03/a-victory-for-female-athletes-everywhere/">The concern is</a> that if “XY females” are allowed to compete in the female category, formerly male transgender females will follow and rob cisgender women of their medals. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-does-it-mean-to-be-cisgender-103159">Explainer: what does it mean to be 'cisgender'?</a>
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<p>This is a separate issue. Transgender athletes have normal testosterone receptors and would have grown up in the presence of male levels of testosterone acting on normal receptors. Intersex athletes have not grown up in this way and are typically raised as female.</p>
<p>The perceived problem of transgender domination of female sports can be dealt with by separate rules that do not disadvantage existing intersex athletes, though they will raise contentious issues of their own. </p>
<h2>8. It is disproportionate and unreasonable</h2>
<p>All methods of reducing testosterone involve some risk. For example, the administration of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2960241">high-dose birth control medication</a> involves risk of clots, including fatal lung clots. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-choose-the-right-contraceptive-pill-for-you-87614">How to choose the right contraceptive pill for you</a>
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<p>These interventions interfere with a normally functioning organism for highly uncertain benefits to other people. This is disproportionate and unreasonable.</p>
<h2>9. It can’t be implemented</h2>
<p>The World Medical Association has advised doctors <a href="https://www.wma.net/news-post/wma-reiterates-advice-to-physicians-not-to-implement-iaaf-rules-on-classifying-women-athletes/">not to administer</a> testosterone-lowering interventions, describing the regulation as “<a href="https://www.wma.net/news-post/wma-urges-physicians-not-to-implement-iaaf-rules-on-classifying-women-athletes/">contrary to international medical ethics and human rights standards</a>”. </p>
<p>Their use would be “off label” and is for purposes other than the athlete’s health. The rules involve “strict liability” which means the athlete is responsible for any failure to comply, even if unintentional and outside of the athlete’s control.</p>
<h2>10. There are fairer, safer alternatives</h2>
<p>I have argued athletes <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f6150">should be able take performance-enhancing substances</a> within the normal physiological range. This would mean cisgender female athletes could take testosterone up to 5 nMol/L. This would reduce any advantage Semenya may have.</p>
<p>It would also deal with the problem that <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-014-0247-x">up to 40%</a> of elite athletes are currently doping anyway. Semenya received the <a href="https://www.olympic.org/london-2012/athletics/800m-women">London 2012 800m gold medal</a> after the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-doping-russia-savinova/savinova-stripped-of-london-games-800m-gold-for-doping-idUSKBN15P1EO">original winner was disqualified for doping</a>. It is highly likely that some of her current competitors are also doping.</p>
<p>No doubt part of the resistance to allowing Semenya to “naturally dope” is that it will encourage other athletes to engage in doping. But they already are, and a better approach to “de-enhancing” Semenya is to <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f6150">regulate and monitor the enhancement of other athletes</a>. </p>
<h2>Spectacular fail</h2>
<p>Rarely does a public policy fail so spectacularly on so many ethical grounds. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Media_Release_Semenya_ASA_IAAF_decision.pdf">CAS acknowledged</a> that its decision constituted discrimination: </p>
<p>“The panel found that the DSD Regulations are discriminatory but the majority of the panel found that, on the basis of the evidence submitted by the parties, such discrimination is a necessary, reasonable and proportionate means of achieving the IAAF’s aim of preserving the integrity of female athletics in the restricted events.”</p>
<p>The UNHRC <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/G19/072/46/PDF/G1907246.pdf?OpenElement">has refuted this claim of proportionality</a>: “there is no clear relationship of proportionality between the aim of the regulations and the proposed measures and their impact”.</p>
<p>This ruling is neither necessary, reasonable nor proportionate. It is simply unjust discrimination.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/caster-semenyas-impossible-situation-testosterone-gets-special-scrutiny-but-doesnt-necessarily-make-her-faster-116407">Caster Semenya's impossible situation: Testosterone gets special scrutiny but doesn't necessarily make her faster</a>
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<p><em>Thanks to Michelle Telfer and Ken Pang for comments</em></p>
<p><em>This article builds on arguments presented in the paper <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20702382">Time to re-evaluate gender segregation in athletics?</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Savulescu receives funding from Uehiro Foundation on Ethics and Education and the Wellcome Trust. </span></em></p>Athlete Caster Semenya will need to take hormone-lowering agents, or have surgery, if she wishes to continue her career in her chosen events. But the decision to ban her is flawed on many grounds.Julian Savulescu, Visiting Professor in Biomedical Ethics, Murdoch Children's Research Institute; Distinguished Visiting Professor in Law, University of Melbourne; Uehiro Chair in Practical Ethics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1156432019-04-25T20:12:59Z2019-04-25T20:12:59ZWhy the idea of alien life now seems inevitable and possibly imminent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269753/original/file-20190417-139084-2drij5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Relative sizes of planets that are in a zone potentially compatible with life: Kepler-22b, Kepler-69c, Kepler-62e, Kepler-62f and Earth (named left to right; except for Earth, these are artists' renditions).</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/multimedia/images/kepler-hz-2013-04.html">NASA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is an edited extract from an essay, The search for ET, in The New Disruptors, the 64th edition of <a href="https://griffithreview.com/">Griffith Review</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>We’re publishing it as part of our occasional series Zoom Out, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Extraterrestrial life, that familiar science-fiction trope, that kitschy fantasy, that CGI nightmare, has become a matter of serious discussion, a “risk factor”, a “scenario”. </p>
<p>How has ET gone from sci-fi fairytale to a serious scientific endeavour <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2013/section-five/x-factors/">modelled by macroeconomists</a>, <a href="https://www.aip.org/fyi/2017/congress-passes-bipartisan-nasa-authorization-legislation">funded by fiscal conservatives</a> and <a href="https://www.archbalt.org/vatican-sponsored-meeting-discusses-chances-of-extra-terrestrial-life">discussed by theologians</a>? </p>
<p>Because, following a string of remarkable discoveries over the past two decades, the idea of alien life is not as far-fetched as it used to seem. </p>
<p>Discovery now seems inevitable and possibly imminent. </p>
<h2>It’s just chemistry</h2>
<p>While life is a special kind of complex chemistry, the elements involved are nothing special: carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and so on are among the most abundant elements in the universe. Complex organic chemistry is surprisingly common. </p>
<p>Amino acids, just like those that make up every protein in our bodies, have been found in the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1945-5100.2009.tb01224.x">tails of comets</a>. There are other <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/nasa-rover-hits-organic-pay-dirt-mars">organic compounds in Martian soil</a>. </p>
<p>And 6,500 light years away a giant <a href="https://phys.org/news/2014-09-alcohol-clouds-space.html">cloud of space alcohol</a> floats among the stars. </p>
<p>Habitable planets seem to be common too. The first planet beyond our Solar System was discovered in 1995. Since then astronomers have catalogued thousands. </p>
<p>Based on this catalogue, astronomers from the University of California, Berkeley <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/31/1319909110/tab-article-info">worked out</a> there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized exoplanets in the so-called “habitable zone” around their star, where temperatures are mild enough for liquid water to exist on the surface. </p>
<p>There’s even a potentially <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19106">Earth-like world</a> orbiting our nearest neighbouring star, Proxima Centauri. At just four light years away, that system might be close enough for us to reach using current technology. With the <a href="https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/initiative/3">Breakthrough Starshot project</a> launched by Stephen Hawking in 2016, plans for this are already afoot.</p>
<h2>Life is robust</h2>
<p>It seems inevitable other life is out there, especially considering that life appeared on Earth so soon after the planet was formed. </p>
<p>The oldest fossils ever found here are <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/1/53.short">3.5 billion years old</a>, while clues in our DNA suggest life could have started as far back as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-018-0644-x">4 billion years ago</a>, just when giant asteroids stopped crashing into the surface. </p>
<p>Our planet was inhabited as soon as it was habitable – and the definition of “habitable” has proven to be a rather flexible concept too. </p>
<p>Life survives in all manner of environments that seem hellish to us: </p>
<ul>
<li>floating on a lake of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0923250803001141">sulphuric acid</a></li>
<li>inside barrels of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ismej2014125">nuclear waste</a></li>
<li>in water superheated to <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/105/31/10949">122 degrees</a> </li>
<li>in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25014">wastelands of Antarctica</a></li>
<li>in rocks <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/10/tread-softly-because-you-tread-on-23bn-tonnes-of-micro-organisms">five kilometres below ground</a>. </li>
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<p>Tantalisingly, some of these conditions seem to be duplicated elsewhere in the Solar System.</p>
<h2>Snippets of promise</h2>
<p>Mars was once warm and wet, and was probably a fertile ground for life before the Earth. </p>
<p>Today, Mars still has <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6401/490">liquid water underground</a>. One gas strongly associated with life on Earth, methane, has already been found in the Martian atmosphere, and at levels that mysteriously <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-finds-ancient-organic-material-mysterious-methane-on-mars">rise and fall with the seasons</a>. (However, the methane result is under debate, with one Mars orbiter recently <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0331-9">confirming the methane detection</a> and another <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1096-4">detecting nothing</a>.) </p>
<p>Martian bugs might turn up as soon as 2021 when the <a href="https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Exploration/ExoMars/ESA_s_Mars_rover_has_a_name_Rosalind_Franklin">ExoMars rover Rosalind Franklin</a> will hunt for them with a <a href="http://exploration.esa.int/mars/60914-oxia-planum-favoured-for-exomars-surface-mission/">two-metre drill</a>. </p>
<p>Besides Earth and Mars, at least two other places in our Solar System might be inhabited. Jupiter’s moon Europa and Saturn’s moon Enceladus are both frozen ice worlds, but the gravity of their colossal planets is enough to churn up their insides, melting water to create <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/cassini-finds-global-ocean-in-saturns-moon-enceladus">vast subglacial seas</a>. </p>
<p>In 2017, specialists in sea ice from the University of Tasmania <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology/article/sea-ice-extremophiles-and-life-on-extraterrestrial-ocean-worlds/C76FF80A75B755492331A3356CD1B824">concluded</a> that some Antarctic microbes could feasibly survive on these worlds. Both Europa and Enceladus have undersea hydrothermal vents, just like those on Earth where life may have originated. </p>
<p>When a NASA probe tasted the material geysered into space out of Enceladus last June it <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0246-4">found large organic molecules</a>. Possibly there was something living among the spray; the probe just didn’t have the right tools to detect it. </p>
<p>Russian billionaire Yuri Milner has been so enthused by this prospect, he wants to help <a href="https://earthsky.org/space/billionaire-yuri-milner-nasa-plan-life-search-enceladus">fund a return mission</a>.</p>
<h2>A second genesis?</h2>
<p>A discovery, if it came, could turn the world of biology upside down. </p>
<p>All life on Earth is related, descended ultimately from the first living cell to emerge some 4 billion years ago. </p>
<p>Bacteria, fungus, cacti and cockroaches are all our cousins and we all share the same basic molecular machinery: DNA that makes RNA, and RNA that makes protein. </p>
<p>A second sample of life, though, might represent a “second genesis” – totally unrelated to us. Perhaps it would use a different coding system in its DNA. Or it might not have DNA at all, but some other method of passing on genetic information. </p>
<p>By studying a second example of life, we could begin to figure out which parts of the machinery of life are universal, and which are just the particular accidents of our primordial soup. </p>
<p>Perhaps amino acids are always used as essential building blocks, perhaps not. </p>
<p>We might even be able to work out some universal laws of biology, the same way we have for physics – not to mention new angles on the question of the origin of life itself. </p>
<p>A second independent “tree of life” would mean that the rapid appearance of life on Earth was no fluke; life must abound in the universe. </p>
<p>It would greatly increase the chances that, somewhere among those billions of habitable planets in our galaxy, there could be something we could talk to.</p>
<h2>Perhaps life is infectious</h2>
<p>If, on the other hand, the discovered microbes were indeed related to us that would be a bombshell of a different kind: it would mean life is infectious. </p>
<p>When a large meteorite hits a planet, the impact can splash pulverised rock right out into space, and this rock can then fall onto other planets as meteorites. </p>
<p>Life from Earth has probably already been taken to other planets – perhaps even to the moons of Saturn and Jupiter. Microbes might well survive the trip. </p>
<p>In 1969, Apollo 12 astronauts retrieved an old probe that had sat on the Moon for three years in extreme cold and vacuum – there were <a href="https://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov/Experiment/exper/1651?">viable bacteria still inside</a>. </p>
<p>As Mars was probably habitable before Earth, it’s possible life originated there before hitchhiking on a space rock to here. Perhaps we’re all Martians.</p>
<p>Even if we never find other life in our Solar System, we might still detect it on any one of thousands of known exoplanets. </p>
<p>It is already possible to look at starlight filtered through an exoplanet and tell something about the composition of its atmosphere; an abundance of oxygen could be a telltale sign of life. </p>
<h2>A testable hypothesis</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/">James Webb Space Telescope</a>, planned for a 2021 launch, will be able to take these measurements for some of the Earth-like worlds already discovered. </p>
<p>Just a few years later will come space-based telescopes that will take pictures of these planets directly. </p>
<p>Using a trick a bit like the sun visor in your car, planet-snapping telescopes will be paired with giant parasols called starshades that will fly in tandem <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/technology/technology-stories/starshade-enable-first-images-earth-sized-exoplanets">50,000 kilometres away</a> in just the right spot to block the blinding light of the star, allowing the faint speck of a planet to be captured. </p>
<p>The colour and the variability of that point of light could tell us the length of the planet’s day, whether it has seasons, whether it has clouds, whether it has oceans, possibly even the colour of its plants.</p>
<p>The ancient question “Are we alone?” has graduated from being a philosophical musing to a testable hypothesis. We should be prepared for an answer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cathal D. O'Connell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ancient question ‘Are we alone?’ has graduated from being a philosophical musing to a testable hypothesis. We should be prepared for an answer.Cathal D. O'Connell, Researcher and Centre Manager, BioFab3D (St Vincent's Hospital), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1083422018-12-11T19:04:53Z2018-12-11T19:04:53Z‘Designer’ babies won’t be common anytime soon – despite recent CRISPR twins<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249584/original/file-20181210-76956-re0ghs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Editing just one gene in an embryo could create many unanticipated side-effects once the baby is born. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newborn-baby-hospital-638374354?src=h35UceDT_U42BqmZZnlmng-1-3">from www.shutterstock.com </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Despite reports that <a href="https://theconversation.com/researcher-claims-crispr-edited-twins-are-born-how-will-science-respond-107693">two genetically modified babies</a> have been born in China I don’t think you’ll be seeing designer babies soon. </p>
<p>This is not just because the laws in many countries, and scientific norms in others, prevent this, but for a much simpler reason: genome editing technology has, and will always have, limits. Limits that are related not to the technology itself but to the intrinsic complexity of the human genome. </p>
<p>In addition, the costs and risks of the procedures will outweigh the benefits for the foreseeable future.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-crispr-gene-editing-and-how-does-it-work-84591">What is CRISPR gene editing, and how does it work?</a>
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<p>Some people may doubt this. But remember, making <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_mouse">genetically modified mice</a> became routine back in the 1980s and animals have been <a href="https://www.genome.gov/25020028/cloning-fact-sheet/">cloned</a> (genetic “copies” made) since the 1990s. And yet until the <a href="https://theconversation.com/researcher-claims-crispr-edited-twins-are-born-how-will-science-respond-107693">announcement of the CRISPR babies</a> – still yet to be confirmed by a peer-reviewed publication – there were no credible attempts to apply genetic technologies to viable human embryos.</p>
<p>There has been talk of designer babies for years but in my view they will remain (as they are now) very, very rare, for quite a while yet.</p>
<h2>Baby 007</h2>
<p>Let’s look at a hypothetical case study. Imagine you want to start a family, and would like your child to look like the latest James Bond. You ask a fertility doctor if she can conduct a kind of “genetic surgery” to change the genes of your embryo. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249585/original/file-20181210-76974-1fdzw5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Same same, but different: six wax versions of James Bond.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-uk-december-2015-madame-waxwork-1128135506?src=WxUUfZP_d5mlW8UL1oqLxw-1-3">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>In simple terms she can’t. You would have to change thousands of genes. Firstly, no one can identify which genes would lead to such an outcome. Secondly, and from a practical point of view, CRISPR only enables researchers to change a handful of genes at a time.</p>
<p>So you think again. Maybe you imagine your baby having the eyes of Jesse Williams, or the hair of Jay-Z? A genetic surgeon still can’t guarantee success. Even just the colour of eyes and hair are the result of complex genetic interactions. </p>
<p>Perhaps you’d rather parent a sporting superstar, like tennis player Karolina Pliskova (1.86m tall). One day it might be possible to “design” a daughter with this height by adjusting genes that control growth hormones. But again, multiple different – background – genes will have an impact, and you can’t be sure of getting the level right. </p>
<p>The risks here are significant. Ethics aside, it would be much simpler to inject hormones to promote growth rather than play with genes and risk your child growing to an unpredictable height (plus other unknown consequences).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249583/original/file-20181210-76977-fvgyb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Being tall like Karolina Pliskova offers a distinct advantage in many sports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paris-france-june-1-karolina-pliskova-1016537848?src=SFFV9kd6mdkITNmfengrpA-1-63">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/researcher-claims-crispr-edited-twins-are-born-how-will-science-respond-107693">Researcher claims CRISPR-edited twins are born. How will science respond?</a>
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<p>Such poor predictability is not due to the limits of genome editing technology – the technology has moved fast to this point, and will no doubt advance further in capability over coming years. Rather, it is due to the interplay between the thousands of genes within our genomes.</p>
<p>On top of that, environmental inputs (the “nurture” part of our development) and epigenetic effects (where subtle chemical modifications, often in response to environmental impacts, influence the expression of certain genes) create further unpredictability. </p>
<p>For these reasons, we simply can’t start ordering physical characteristics off some sort of cosmetic genetic surgeon’s menu – let alone attempt to alter mental traits, like temperament or intelligence.</p>
<p>There is also the problem of trade offs involved in any change. The CRISPR-edited babies reportedly born in China were <a href="https://theconversation.com/researcher-claims-crispr-edited-twins-are-born-how-will-science-respond-107693">intended to be resistant to HIV</a>. It is not clear whether they will be – but even if they are, current knowledge suggests that they would also be more susceptible to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25918237">influenza</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2118086/">West Nile virus</a>. This is due to the many roles that the edited CCR5 gene plays in our immune system. </p>
<p>There are few “free lunches” in human evolution. And few parents would play a game of trial and error with their offspring once they understand the risks.</p>
<h2>Preventing genetic disease</h2>
<p>Superficial traits aside, even using CRISPR editing to combat serious genetic disease is unlikely to be common. </p>
<p>In many countries genetic counselling is already used to reduce the risk of passing on genetic diseases, like <a href="https://www.who.int/genomics/public/geneticdiseases/en/index2.html">Tay-Sachs</a> (in which the accumulation of fatty substances in nerve cells causes paralysis, dementia, blindness, psychoses, and even death). </p>
<p>Increasingly, in the future, if parents suffering from or carrying genetic mutations, choose to have biological children, they might consider <a href="https://www.ivf.com.au/fertility-treatment/ivf-treatment">in vitro fertilisation (IVF)</a> and only proceed with unaffected embryos for a pregnancy. In the case of an existing pregnancy, pre-natal diagnosis can give parents information they can use to help them decide whether or not to terminate, or perhaps correct the cells in the embryo as explained below. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249593/original/file-20181210-76989-1n80vu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">During IVF, a single cell can be safely removed from an embryo for genetic testing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/human-cells-egg-208569940?src=YIqI-A3t-060HqkKmZvwEA-1-0">from www.shutterstock.com'</a></span>
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<p>It’s possible in the near future that some genetic diseases will be treated at the level of fixing the genes within certain cells in embryos, children or adults, rather than modifying whole embryos. Here, the relevant cells could be taken out of the body, the genes corrected and then the cells injected back in. Blood diseases in which vital oxygen-carrying haemoglobin is defective, such as sickle cell disease and thalassemia, will <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-slow-climb-from-innovation-to-cure-treating-anaemia-with-gene-editing-67131">likely be cured in this way</a>. </p>
<p>In the cases of <a href="https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/scientists-use-crispr-to-treat-genetic-liver-diseases-neonatal-and-adult-mice">liver</a> and <a href="http://time.com/5382101/crispr-muscular-dystrophy-in-dogs/">muscle</a> diseases it may be possible to inject harmless viruses carrying the genome editing agents into these organs.</p>
<p>It’s only in exceptionally rare instances that parents might ask for their embryo to be changed. Sickle cell disease (which leads to anaemia), or cystic fibrosis (that affects the respiratory, digestive and reproductive systems) are examples. Each disease results from two affected copies of the relevant gene coming together: one copy from each parent. If both parents were affected by one of these disorders – which, given these conditions are so rare, is improbable but possible – their only option for having an unaffected biological child would be gene editing.</p>
<p>But one still wouldn’t jump into editing the genome of an embryo, because we have to weigh up not only the benefits but also the risks. The risks are important – because if an unintended genetic change is made, and an unanticipated consequence follows, it could affect not only that child but future generations as well. </p>
<p>At present scientists have generally agreed <a href="http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=11282018b">not to consider modifying human embryos</a> until we know enough about the technology to evaluate the risks, and unless society is on board. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tension-as-scientist-at-centre-of-crispr-outrage-speaks-at-genome-editing-summit-107807">Tension as scientist at centre of CRISPR outrage speaks at genome editing summit</a>
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<h2>Society must decide</h2>
<p>But it seems this consensus was recently broken. There is concern that in terms of Jiankui He’s work with CRIPSR in human embryos <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/12/15-worrying-things-about-crispr-babies-scandal/577234/">we cannot be</a> sure of either the efficacy of the editing or the consequences of any unintended changes made to the genomes. (Jiankui He has apparently <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/chinese-scientist-who-edited-twins-genes-he-jiankui-missing/10588528">gone missing</a> since his recent appearance at a genome editing summit).</p>
<p>I don’t expect many other scientists to follow his path for now. </p>
<p>In the future there may be rare cases where parents who both carry genes for serious genetic diseases do seek to have an unaffected child via gene editing, and perhaps society would sanction this choice. Where we would draw the line for editing less serious but also well-known genetic variations remains to be determined. In the more distant future actual genetic enhancements may well be contemplated but I think the reactions to Jiankui He’s work make this less rather than more likely. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-your-genome-really-your-own-the-public-and-forensic-value-of-dna-95786">Is your genome really your own? The public and forensic value of DNA</a>
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<p>For now, CRISPR genome editing remains a revolutionary technology that is transforming biological research and will have many medical and agricultural applications. It’s also clear that different advances associated with genome sequencing, genetic privacy, and discrimination, will present us with many regulatory and ethical challenges in coming years. </p>
<p>But I don’t expect to be debating these issues with designer babies who have grown to adulthood. For the most part, that will remain science fiction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108342/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Merlin Crossley receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council. He is on the Trust of the Australian Museum, is the Chair of the Board of UNSW Press, Deputy Chair of the Australian Science Media Centre, and Editorial Board of The Conversation and of the journal Bioessays.</span></em></p>Genome editing technology has, and will always have, limits. Limits that are related not to the technology itself but to the intrinsic complexity of the human genome.Merlin Crossley, Deputy Vice-Chancellor Academic and Professor of Molecular Biology, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065412018-11-26T19:03:56Z2018-11-26T19:03:56ZOur long fascination with the journey to Mars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247203/original/file-20181126-149317-1hdg0u9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Signs of life on Mars? These are the tracks of NASA's Curiosity rover exploring the Martian landscape.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/resources/464/curiositys-color-view-of-martian-dune-after-crossing-it/">NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>It’s touchdown again on <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/mars/overview/">Mars</a>, thanks to NASA’s <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/insight/">InSight</a> probe. This latest mission will continue our exploration of much that is still unknown about the planet.</p>
<p>As seen from Earth, the big red dot in the night sky has certainly caught the attention of humans since we started contemplating the universe. </p>
<p>The first observations with telescopes gave us a much clearer picture of Mars, with the poles covered in ice and different tones of red and black in the tropics.</p>
<p>NASA’s InSight (<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/insight/overview/index.html">Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport</a>) mission should tell us more about the interior of Mars and how the planet formed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/evidence-of-aliens-what-to-make-of-research-and-reporting-on-oumuamua-our-visitor-from-space-106711">Evidence of aliens? What to make of research and reporting on 'Oumuamua, our visitor from space</a>
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<h2>Beware of Martians</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most curious account of Mars came from the Italian astronomer <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Giovanni-Virginio-Schiaparelli">Giovanni Schiaparelli</a> in 1877. He observed a dense network of linear structures on the surface of Mars which he called “canali” in Italian, meaning “channels”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247190/original/file-20181126-149326-2q7lxx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Giovanni Schiaparelli’s map of Mars, compiled over the period 1877-1886.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4212/p6.html">NASA/Flammarion, La Planète Mars</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the term was misinterpreted by some English-speakers as “canals”, which implied they were made by Martians.</p>
<p>Our love and fear relationship with Mars escalated to another level in 1938, when <a href="https://orsonwelles.indiana.edu/items/show/1972">Orson Welles broadcast</a> an all-too-real adaption of HG Wells’ classic The War of the Worlds.</p>
<p>The Halloween night broadcast of the invasion of Martians to Earth apparently lead some listeners in the United States to panic, as they took the fiction as a fact (a story told in the 1975 movie, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073454/">The Night That Panicked America</a>). How much panic is still <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/radio/what-to-listen-to/the-war-of-the-worlds-panic-was-a-myth/">open to question</a>.</p>
<p>HG Wells’ <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-War-of-the-Worlds-novel-by-Wells">1898 novel</a> has inspired more than a few Hollywood movies, television series and a musical telling since then, including Steven Spielberg’s 2005 movie <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0407304">War of the Worlds</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rYGWG2_PB_Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The chances of anything coming from Mars.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mars close up</h2>
<p>The first close-up images from Mars came in 1965 with the <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/mariner-4/">Mariner 4</a> spacecraft flying by the planet, and then with <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/mariner-9-mariner-i/">Mariner 9</a> entering orbit in 1971.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247204/original/file-20181126-149341-d0j39m.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=690&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mariner 4 takes the first close-up image ever taken of Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/imgcat/html/object_page/m04_01d.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both spacecraft showed Mars as a cold, barren, desert-like world. Before these missions we had only seen Mars through telescopes, and the question of whether the planet was habitable (or inhabited) was still open.</p>
<p>I still remember when I was a child watching a TV program showing images of the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/viking">Viking mission</a> which landed <a href="https://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/past/viking.html">two probes on Mars</a> in 1976.</p>
<p>Instead of talking about our first successful spacecraft to land on Mars and sending us images and scientific data from the surface of another planet, the program talked for a long time about a feature that looked like a face of a man on the surface of Mars, and structures that resembled pyramids. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247170/original/file-20181126-149335-1bssgtt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA’s Viking 1 Orbiter spacecraft photographed this region in the northern latitudes of Mars on July 25, 1976 while searching for a landing site for the Viking 2 Lander. The eroded rock resembles a human face near the centre of the image.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=PIA01141">NASA/JPL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Those images certainly affected me, and were key in my fascination for Mars and space in general. </p>
<p>The legacy of the Viking landers was mostly their first geochemical characterisation from the surface, and a detailed atmospheric composition analysis from Mars. </p>
<p>Viking results were fantastic in many ways, but disappointing too as they indicated a dry planet, full of primary rocks that would have transformed into minerals if water was present.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247195/original/file-20181126-149323-10ojcfs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This colour image of the Martian surface was taken by Viking Lander 1, looking southwest, about 15 minutes before sunset.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/sunset-at-the-viking-lander-1-site">NASA/JPL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pictures from the surface showed no signs of life – no signs of little bushes, a bit of moss on some rocks, or a green man smiling to the cameras. </p>
<p>In a way we lost our interest for Mars until it attacked us with meteorites.</p>
<h2>Rocks from Mars</h2>
<p>Rocks from planets and the Moon, and meteors, hold chemical hints of where they came from. So it’s possible to tell if a meteorite is from our Moon, from Mars, or from elsewhere. </p>
<p>A meteorite found in Antarctica (dubbed <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/ALH84001">ALH84001</a>) is one that scientists affirm came from Mars. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247184/original/file-20181126-149338-50z6es.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 4.5 billion-year-old rock, labeled meteorite ALH84001, identified from Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mars/multimedia/pia00289.html">NASA/JSC/Stanford University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Martian meteorites can be found on Earth because a big meteorite probably fell on Mars, and in the process ended up ejecting pieces of the surface into space. </p>
<p>Some were big enough to enter our atmosphere and be found later. ALH84001 is made mostly of carbonate: a mineral that needs water to be formed. Therefore, indirectly we can conclude that Mars was once wet. </p>
<p>To make it even more interesting, this Martian postcard has some miniscule structures that look like some bacteria found on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199135/original/file-20171214-27575-1xga58h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This high-resolution scanning electron microscope image shows an unusual tube-like structural form that is less than 1/100th the width of a human hair in size found in meteorite ALH84001.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/exploration/marsexploration/html/s96_12609.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists are still debating whether those structures are Martian fossils or not. But the discovery and analysis of ALH84001 brought us back to Mars. Now it was time for us to counterattack.</p>
<h2>Rover missions to Mars</h2>
<p>NASA then announced the first rover mission to Mars called <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mars-pathfinder">Pathfinder</a>. The microwave oven sized rover it carried, called Sojourner, landed on Mars in 1997. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9HGRReKUzfU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Take a look around on Mars.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The rover produced results quite similar to those found by Viking, pointing to a very dry past and present on Mars. What followed was a considerable effort to get more images of the Martian surface from orbiters, and select the place to land with future payloads.</p>
<p>After debating more than 174 potential landing sites, scientists and engineers involved with Mars research discussed and they to two places to land on Mars with two large rovers: <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mer/index.html">Spirit and Opportunity</a>. </p>
<p>After seven months of interplanetary travel, the rovers landed in January 2004. The initial results obtained by Spirit were similar to those from Viking and Mars Pathfinder. </p>
<p>The first groundbreaking results came from Opportunity with the discovery of <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1740">jarosite and hematite</a>: two minerals that need water and acidic conditions to be formed. </p>
<p>After working way beyond their manufacture warranty (three months), the twin rovers transformed our knowledge about the past of Mars.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247206/original/file-20181126-149335-1t1fh3t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=929&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NASA’s Mars rover Opportunity catches its own late-afternoon shadow in this dramatically lit view eastward across Endeavour Crater on Mars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_2255.html">NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell/Arizona State Univ.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before we landed there was the question of whether Mars was once wet. Now we know that there were once oceans on Mars as salty as the Dead Sea, plus there were hot springs and fresh water streams.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/discovered-a-huge-liquid-water-lake-beneath-the-southern-pole-of-mars-100523">Discovered: a huge liquid water lake beneath the southern pole of Mars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Water on Mars was not only present, but it was there in different forms. Mars had perfect conditions for long enough for life to form and evolve. At least we can say Mars was habitable. </p>
<p>Spirit was active for six years and Opportunity, after 15 years, is still officially going on. </p>
<p>During this time a lander called Phoenix landed in the Green Valley of Castitas Borealis on the Martian northern hemisphere, near the north pole. The key discovery from Phoenix was the presence of minute concentrations of <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/2008/080806/full/news.2008.1016.html">perchlorate</a>, a powerful bacterial killer salt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247205/original/file-20181126-149323-10pf5mw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A thin layer of water frost is visible on the ground around NASA’s Phoenix Mars Lander.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1160.html">NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona/Texas A&M University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite the impact these missions have in our understanding about Mars, there were a number of instruments we would love to use and could not fit in a rover. </p>
<p>The idea of having a fully equipped Martian laboratory fuelled scientists to propose a new mission: Mars Science Laboratory with a much larger rover. It’s equipped with laser beams able to analyse rocks at distance, rock grinders and analysers able to provide a more detailed characterisation of Mars rocks, soil and atmosphere. </p>
<p>Perchlorates were also <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6129/138.2">found by the Curiosity rover</a>, from the Mars Science Laboratory mission, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2013.11.012">on a Martian meteorite called EETA79001</a> which suggest a global distribution of these bacterial-killer salts.</p>
<h2>A new InSight to Mars</h2>
<p>The past 50 years were full of discoveries about Mars’s surface, but little is known about its subsoil or inner core. This is where the InSight mission that is about to land on Mars comes in to play. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LKLITDmm4NA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Inside Mars.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s supported by NASA’s Deep Space Network, including our station in Canberra which is managed on NASA’s behalf by CSIRO. InSight’s team hopes to learn how the deep interior of Mars was formed, and how similar they would be to other rocky worlds such as Venus, Mercury, our Moon, Earth, or those exoplanets from other solar systems. </p>
<p>This is the first mission that is designed to investigate deep inside of Mars. Insight has a seismometer and temperature probe as part of its payload.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-what-are-some-of-the-challenges-to-mars-travel-105030">Curious Kids: What are some of the challenges to Mars travel?</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>The future will be dominated by sample return missions: those spacecraft able to land on Mars and bring samples back to Earth (similar to what Russians did on the Moon) and by our effort to have astronauts exploring Mars on their own feet. </p>
<p>We don’t yet have the technology required to make that happen. An idea of the challenge ahead is captured by the CSIRO <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/do-business/futures/reports/space-roadmap">Space Industry Roadmap</a>, which outlines some of the key technologies needed for future exploration and the unique contributions that Australian companies and universities could offer in that pursuit</p>
<p>The quest for understanding the evolution of our Solar System continues and I am still confronted by a large number of questions without an answer. Hopefully InSight will provide some of those answers but there is still much to learn about what lies above us on Mars, the fourth planet out from the Sun.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247207/original/file-20181126-149311-17gaydj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This artist’s concept depicts NASA’s InSight lander after it has deployed its instruments on the Martian surface.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasas-insight-will-study-mars-while-standing-still">NASA/JPL-Caltech</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paulo de Souza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mars has long captured our imagination, from claims of canals to Martian attacks and now our latest NASA exploration to look inside the red planet.Paulo de Souza, Science Leader – Cybernetics, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1067112018-11-16T03:09:43Z2018-11-16T03:09:43ZEvidence of aliens? What to make of research and reporting on ‘Oumuamua, our visitor from space<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245035/original/file-20181112-83589-u6w0gy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An artist’s impression of `Oumuamua, the first interstellar object discovered in the Solar System.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eso.org/public/images/eso1820a/">ESA/Hubble, NASA, ESO, M. Kornmesser</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>As an astrophysicist, probably the most common question I get asked is: “Are we alone in the universe and do aliens exist?”</p>
<p>There is no doubt: people love to think and talk about aliens. Hence, stories about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence get picked up and reported with gusto in the media. </p>
<p>But what really lies at the heart of this complicated and popular topic is evidence – the nature of any evidence of alien life, how we view and respect this evidence, and how this is communicated to the public.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-super-earth-found-in-our-stellar-back-yard-106862">A super-Earth found in our stellar back yard</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Nowhere is this more important than in the coverage of scientific studies of a mystery object – ‘Oumuamua – that was recently discovered passing through our Solar System. For example, two publications in two respected peer-reviewed journals prompted very different reactions.</p>
<h2>Hello 'Oumuamua</h2>
<p>'Oumuamua, meaning scout or messenger in Hawaiian, is the name given to the <a href="http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/info/press-releases/interstellar/">first detected interstellar object to visit our Solar System</a>. On discovery last year, 'Oumuamua was classified as a comet, but this was later withdrawn when no evidence for cometary activity was detected. </p>
<p>'Oumuamua was quickly found to have an orbit that does not belong to our Solar System. It has an origin elsewhere in our galaxy, and a trajectory that saw it traverse the inner Solar System over the course of a few months.</p>
<p>It passed close to the Sun and to Earth, and was found to have an unusual geometry, about 200 metres long and some 35 metres wide, rotating every seven hours.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sC0SJv-A0CI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Observations with ESO’s Very Large Telescope and others have shown that this unique object is dark, reddish in colour, and highly elongated. Credit: ESO.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The discovery of 'Oumuamua generated a lot of attention in the scientific community, and in the media. Given its unusual geometry and its origin outside the Solar System, questions were soon asked as to whether 'Oumuamua <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/mysterious-object-detected-speeding-past-the-sun-could-be-from-another-solar-system-a2017-u1">could be a spacecraft</a>. </p>
<p>Observations were made with radio telescopes to search for any direct evidence of transmissions indicating intelligent life, <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.09276">including by a team led by me</a> using an Australian telescope (the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tuning-in-to-cosmic-radio-from-the-dawn-of-time-51584">Murchison Widefield Array</a>). We listened around FM radio frequencies, on the basis that any intelligent life on 'Oumuamua may recognise FM frequencies popular on Earth. </p>
<p>No direct evidence of intelligent life was ever found in these searches.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244865/original/file-20181110-116853-3ekpuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data from the Murchison Widefield Array, showing no detection of radio signals from ‘Oumuamua in the frequency range 70-105MHz (containing the FM band).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Tingay and co-authors</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More hard data on 'Oumuamua</h2>
<p>Extensive and impressive observations with a range of telescopes, including the Hubble Space Telescope, were made to accurately determine 'Oumuamua’s trajectory. Results of the study, by a team of astronomers led by the European Space Agency’s Marco Micheli, were <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0254-4">published in Nature in June</a>. </p>
<p>These very careful observations showed that 'Oumuamua accelerated as it left the Solar System, revealing the existence of “non-gravitational forces”. This means that the trajectory of the object could not be explained just by the gravity of the Sun and other major objects in our Solar System.</p>
<p>A range of possible explanations for the acceleration exist. One is that heated gas escaping from 'Oumuamua (outgassing) could produce a force that caused the observed acceleration. This is commonly seen in normal <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/small-bodies/comets/in-depth/">comets</a>. </p>
<p>But 'Oumuamua still shows no evidence for cometary activity. Micheli’s team ran through six possible explanations and concluded that outgassing is the most likely option, even though there is no direct evidence that this is the case.</p>
<p>They showed that the acceleration of 'Oumuamua is unusual, but within the bounds of what has been seen previously for Solar System comets.</p>
<p>One of the explanations discounted by the study team is that 'Oumuamua was accelerated by <a href="http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/R/Radiation+Pressure">radiation pressure</a> from our Sun. Radiation from the Sun can push objects away from it.</p>
<p>But they concluded that this explanation is not preferred, because it means that the density of 'Oumuamua would have to be very low. An object needs have a large surface area and low mass (low density) to be accelerated by radiation pressure.</p>
<h2>Could it be aliens?</h2>
<p>Another study by postdoctoral researcher <a href="http://harvard.academia.edu/shmuelbialy">Shmuel Bialy</a> and distinguished astronomer <a href="https://astronomy.fas.harvard.edu/people/avi-loeb">Avi Loeb</a>, from Harvard University, took a different approach.</p>
<p>Details of the study have just been published in November’s The Astrophysical Journal Letters, but were <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.11490">available online earlier</a>.</p>
<p>The authors chose to <em>assume</em> solar radiation pressure to be the cause of the acceleration, and then determined the properties of 'Oumuamua required to make this work. They require an object with thickness less than 1mm, an areal mass density of 1 to 2 grams per square centimetre, and a large area.</p>
<p>It is unlikely that nature would produce such an extreme geometry. The authors quickly mention this, before moving to a discussion that, under the assumption that solar radiation is the cause for the acceleration, 'Oumuamua is artificial - that means the product of an alien civilisation.</p>
<p>The properties the authors derive under their assumptions are similar to those of <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/solar-sail.htm">solar sails</a> being designed and built by humans as a possible way to travel interstellar distances. </p>
<p>Bialy and Loeb spend half of their article discussion section on the idea that 'Oumuamua could be a defunct or active solar sail belonging to an alien civilisation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/244866/original/file-20181110-38373-tccf2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artist’s impression of the IKAROS mission using a solar sail.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=14656159">Wikimedia/Andrzej Mirecki</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The nature and communication of evidence</h2>
<p>Bialy and Loeb did not issue a press release about their study, but the media picked up the paper once it was accepted and available online, prior to this week’s journal publication.</p>
<p>(This is something that happened to me in 2012, leading to my published non-detection of aliens being run on the front page of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-18288926">BBC news website</a>.)</p>
<p>Bialy and Loeb’s publication attracted headlines such as this, for example: “<a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1043022/Oumuamua-news-Harvard-astronomy-alien-probe-space-Earth-latest-UFO-spaceship">Harvard astronomers claim Oumuamua is ALIEN PROBE - 'Nothing like we’ve ever seen!’</a>”. Most other reporting was <a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/interstellar-comet-oumuamua-might-not-actually-be-a-comet-20181010/">more balanced</a>.</p>
<p>This is pretty normal. A lot of the media jump to aliens in the reporting of space and astronomy, even when the original reported studies have never mentioned aliens. Recent reporting of Fast Radio Bursts (<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/fast-radio-bursts-6352">FRBs</a>) is an <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/06/mysterious-radio-signals-outer-space-say-scientists/">example</a>.</p>
<p>What surprised me was the reaction of some of my colleagues to Bialy and Loeb’s paper. On social media, there have been some pretty personal attacks by scientists – on Loeb in particular – for being in the media for this work.</p>
<p>Both new studies lay out their assumptions, cite substantial evidence, and undertake rigorous calculations. Both were accepted by top-quality journals after independent peer review. </p>
<p>Both finish with bottom lines that the studies of ‘Oumuamua are inconclusive and we will need to examine more such objects that come through the Solar System in the future.</p>
<p>Both sets of authors also come up with different perspectives and motivate different questions. But Loeb has ended up in the media, talking about his paper, and is being panned by some colleagues for it.</p>
<p>Since the pre-journal paper was picked up he told me he has been swamped by media interest.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I use the discussions with the media as a platform for highlighting the standard scientific methodology: an anomaly is observed in data, the standard explanation fails to explain it, and so an alternative interpretation is proposed.</p>
<p>I encourage anyone with a better explanation to write a paper about it and publish it. Wrong interpretations can be ruled out when more data will be released on 'Oumuamua or other members of its population in the future. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As for the negative reactions he has received, he referred to an article he <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/seeking-the-truth-when-the-consensus-is-against-you/">recently published</a> where he paraphrased another scientist known for his once-controversial theories.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As Galileo reasoned after looking through his telescope, “in the sciences, the authority of a thousand is not worth as much as the humble reasoning of a single individual”.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Let’s talk about evidence</h2>
<p>Given my work on observations of 'Oumuamua, a few journalists have contacted me for <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2018/11/07/australia-search-alien-life/">comment</a>. </p>
<p>These have been great opportunities to discuss in depth with journalists the nature of evidence, the difference between something being consistent with observations and direct evidence for a conclusion, and the need for evidence to be commensurate with the impact of a claim. </p>
<p>If aliens are claimed, direct and robust evidence is required – not a conclusion based on a few observations that are difficult to explain, plus a bunch of assumptions. </p>
<p>But no scientist has claimed 'Oumuamua is alien in this discussion – they have just raised questions and explored answers.</p>
<p>There is no point in shying away from a proper discussion on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, or in being personally critical of colleagues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-search-for-the-source-of-a-mysterious-fast-radio-burst-comes-relatively-close-to-home-105735">The search for the source of a mysterious fast radio burst comes relatively close to home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Scientists should take every opportunity to engage with the public and the media on the topic, given the public’s interest and the media’s willingness to report. </p>
<p>It is interesting, fun, and scientific, and a great opportunity to discuss the scientific method and science in an engaging manner. The media reporting of 'Oumuamua shows that (aside from a few headlines), the content of reports is generally pretty good and responsible.</p>
<p>Whatever 'Oumuamua is (almost certainly not made by aliens, in my view), it is a fascinating object and presents lots of interesting scientific questions that will trigger further studies and observations. </p>
<p>We will never see 'Oumuamua again, and we may never know exactly what it is. But seeing 'Oumuamua in the news is likely to inspire some kids to take up a career in science.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Tingay receives funding from Curtin University, the Western Australian Government, the Australian Government, the US Government, and via contracts to industry. He is a member of the ALP.</span></em></p>We will never see ‘Oumuamua again, and we may never know exactly what it is. But with the right kind of media coverage it could inspire some kids to take up a career in science.Steven Tingay, John Curtin Distinguished Professor (Radio Astronomy), Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027722018-11-02T01:03:53Z2018-11-02T01:03:53ZHow Eurasia’s Tianshan mountains set a stage that changed the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239902/original/file-20181009-133328-1xid67f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tianshan mountains frame Sayram Lake in the Bortala Prefecture in Xinjiang, China.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Nestled deep in Central Asia, the Tianshan is a huge mountain range that stretches from Uzbekistan in the west, all the way through to China and Mongolia in the east. It is more than 2,500km in length and has numerous peaks that soar to over 7,000m in height. </p>
<p>Though you may not know it, the Tianshan mountain range probably changed the lives of your ancestors – and to this day, you.</p>
<p>Through defining and shaping ancient trading routes of the Silk Road and still now China’s Belt and Road initiative, the Tianshan has been key to the development and spread of human society and culture over <a href="https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/about-silk-road">thousands of years</a>. </p>
<p>We’re now able to put together geological evidence to see how this incredible mountain range formed. When it all began more than 700 million years ago, the world was a very different place. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243416/original/file-20181101-173899-5t30hb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vital in trade and communications for thousands of years, the paths of the Silk Road passed through and around the Tianshan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson, Jack Gillespie (using data from ESRI, NASA, and NOAA)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Like a string of pearls</h2>
<p>The Tianshan mountain range created a stage for world-changing human activities.</p>
<p>Beginning in 138BCE, the <a href="https://en.unesco.org/silkroad/about-silk-road">Silk Road trading routes</a> connecting Asia with Europe carried not just merchandise and precious commodities but also allowed movement and mixing of populations with their accompanying knowledge, ideas, cultures and beliefs. </p>
<p>Traders on the Silk Road weaved their way through the valleys of the Tianshan; their path focused by its broad east-west orientation. The ranges offered climatic stability and facilitated relatively easy cross-continent travel. </p>
<p>It was through this network that goods and technology such as <a href="http://www.academia.edu/18533105/Spread_of_Ideas_along_the_Silk_Road">paper</a>, the <a href="http://www.markedbyteachers.com/international-baccalaureate/history/was-the-silk-road-instrumental-in-bringing-the-compass-and-gunpowder-to-europe-prior-to-the-13th-century.html">compass</a>, <a href="http://www.silk-road.com/artl/gun.shtml">gunpowder</a>, and (of course) <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Silk-Road-trade-route">silk</a>, were transmitted across the continent to <a href="http://www.jareddiamond.org/Jared_Diamond/Guns,_Germs,_and_Steel.html">profound impact</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242865/original/file-20181030-76402-voawfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two high peaks of the central Tianshan: Xuelian Feng with a summit of 6,527 metres above sea level, and the aptly-named Peak 6231 at 6,231 metres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1908.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result, numerous wealthy societies and cultures bloomed along the length of the Tianshan, like <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/the-silk-roads-9781408839973/">pearls connected by a line of silk</a>. Cities of the Silk Road such as Samarkand, Bukhara, and Kashgar were important centres of learning and rich trade hubs, a history that is reflected in their gorgeous architecture. </p>
<p>Even today, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-belt-and-road-initiative-chinas-vision-for-globalisation-beijing-style-77705">land routes</a> of modern China’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/ChinasRoad">One Belt, One Road Initiative</a> – a distributed infrastructure system to facilitate trade – will be governed by the Tianshan geography.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243166/original/file-20181031-76402-e0r6n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mosque in the silk road city of Samarkand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-belt-and-road-initiative-chinas-vision-for-globalisation-beijing-style-77705">The Belt and Road Initiative: China's vision for globalisation, Beijing-style</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How the Tianshan formed</h2>
<p>Geologists look back to well before human existence to understand how the Tianshan came about. </p>
<p>The Earth <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-map-that-fills-a-500-million-year-gap-in-earths-history-79838">looked completely different</a> when the Tianshan first began to form 700 million years ago, or more. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/77NKvC4nkvY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">We now have a map of plate tectonics for the period 1,000-520 million years ago. The colours refer to where the continents lie today. Light blue = India, Madagascar and Arabia, magenta = Australia and Antarctica, white = Siberia, red = North America, orange = Africa, dark blue = South America, yellow = China, green = northeast Europe.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There was no Eurasia at this time. Instead, the ancestral Tianshan began in the ocean, starting as volcanic magma and lava that formed island chains above subduction zones (the deep parts of the oceans where the sea bed plummets further down into the deep earth). These early island arcs most likely resembled modern Indonesia.</p>
<p>Over millions of years, these islands merged together to form a land bridge connecting the lands of what we now know as eastern Europe and Siberia. </p>
<p>As this proto-Eurasian continent came together, the land mass grew further due to rocks being <a href="http://geologylearn.blogspot.com/2017/01/continental-accretion-and-plate.html">scraped off the tectonic plate as it moved downwards</a>. It’s a similar scenario to what’s still going on in the Andes today.</p>
<p>This Andes-style growth of the Tianshan continued until 250 million years ago, when a large continental plate, known as Tarim (today the Taklamakan Desert in far west China) <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X12000469">collided with early Asia</a>.</p>
<p>This ancient plate collision between Tarim and the nucleus of Asia created the first version of the Tianshan mountains.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-map-that-fills-a-500-million-year-gap-in-earths-history-79838">A map that fills a 500-million year gap in Earth's history</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Scars from the past</h2>
<p>Bands of smashed rock amid massive fault zones are preserved from these <a href="https://ac.els-cdn.com/0040195177900294/1-s2.0-0040195177900294-main.pdf?_tid=99adf180-3eef-40db-a57c-0db7da4fa587&acdnat=1540948401_690785a2579ac556c001537cc1008716">ancient plate collisions</a>. Also referred to as sutures, these scars represent the sites of ancient oceans that used to separate these now-combined continents. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1490/">Tianshan</a>, these sutures are mostly aligned east-west, and are typically weaker than the rock in between. As a result, when the entire region is placed under stress from the movement of the tectonic plates at the edge of Eurasia, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011TC002949">these zones often break</a>, forming faults and earthquakes.</p>
<p>The faults also push rock up on top of other layers and form mountains – giving the fundamental <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep28831/figures/1">east-west alignment</a> of valleys and mountains in the Tianshan region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243168/original/file-20181031-76384-1at6m7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Dzungarian Alatau, Kazakhstan; one of the many east-west trending ranges that dominate the Tianshan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The positioning of these geographical features had a major impact on human history. The spread of domesticated animals and plants from their places of origin, whether <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199549061.001.0001">wheat from the Fertile Crescent</a> or <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/323/5919/1332">horses from Central Asia</a>, would not have progressed so smoothly without these structures. The similar climate along latitudinal valleys helped horses, pigs, cattle, wheat, barley, and all the other biological hallmarks of advanced agricultural societies <a href="http://www.jareddiamond.org/Jared_Diamond/Guns,_Germs,_and_Steel.html">spread</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-precarious-geological-bargain-57903">A precarious geological bargain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>When India collided with Asia</h2>
<p>After the Tarim-Asia collision 250 million years ago, the Tianshan mountains underwent <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2017TC004878">significant erosion</a>. This process of wearing down took place over hundreds of millions of years, causing central Asia to look much like the arid, weathered hills of central Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243143/original/file-20181031-76387-1tsdm7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The weathered hills of the Nurata Range, Uzbekistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But then a new geological event forced the mountains back up again: the collision of India with Asia between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JB004706">50 to 30 million years ago</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to driving up the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau at the site of the collision, this collision reactivated ancient sutures in the Tianshan. The forces caused many of the low hills along the Tianshan to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2010TC002712">thrust back up</a>. </p>
<p>This is the modern topography of the Tianshan that we see today. </p>
<h2>Mountains shape life</h2>
<p>As well as providing structures for human activities, mountains like the Tianshan have played other roles in shaping non-human life on Earth. </p>
<p>One important way they do this is through influencing the climate of the planet. The formation of mountain ranges exposes vast areas of fresh rock. The weathering activity of rain and air in these rocks over time creates chemical reactions that locks up <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/91JB01898">huge volumes of carbon dioxide</a> and other molecules. This has the effect of reducing the greenhouse effect and cooling the planet on a <a href="https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS281r/Sources/Silicate-weathering-and-CO2/James-Walker-Hays-1981.pdf">timescale of millions of years</a>. </p>
<p>Another effect of the erosion of rocks is that they release chemicals that were vital for the first life on Earth, and are still essential for our <a href="https://theconversation.com/phosphorus-is-vital-for-life-on-earth-and-were-running-low-74316">own existence today</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/phosphorus-is-vital-for-life-on-earth-and-were-running-low-74316">Phosphorus is vital for life on Earth – and we're running low</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243175/original/file-20181031-76402-12aqihx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mountainous lake Song-Kul, Kyrgyzstan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gilby Jepson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Phosphorous, in particular, is thought to have been lacking in the early oceans, its supply limiting life as it is an essential component in DNA. The weathering of phosphorous-rich rocks could have been the driver for <a href="https://nai.nasa.gov/articles/2017/2/16/extreme-phosphorus-scarcity-and-its-grip-on-ancient-life/">billion year old life to bloom</a>. </p>
<p>The critical link between the deep earth, plate tectonic processes and the climate is one of considerable active research. It feeds into major questions. How did the Earth become habitable for complex life? Does the formation of mountains control ice ages? </p>
<p>Answering these questions, and others like them, is important if we are to properly understand our place in the world and the forces controlling the development of our dynamic Earth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gilby Jepson receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Collins receives funding from the Australian Research Council, State and Federal government bodies and a range of minerals and energy companies</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Gillespie receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Setting the scene for ancient Silk Road trading and now China’s Belt and Road initiative, the Tianshan has changed humanity. Geological evidence shows us how this incredible mountain range formed.Gilby Jepson, PhD Candidate, University of AdelaideAlan Collins, Professor of Geology, University of AdelaideJack Gillespie, PhD Candidate, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1018232018-10-11T19:07:39Z2018-10-11T19:07:39ZArchaeology can help us prepare for climates ahead – not just look back<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237680/original/file-20180924-7728-1ks7cm2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Remains of meals at Haua Fteah cave reveal a lot about past climates in in the Gebel Akhdar region of Libya. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amy Prendergast </span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Watching the weather for today and tomorrow is relatively easy with apps and news programs – but knowing what the climate was like in the past is a little more difficult. </p>
<p>Archaeological evidence can show us how humans coped with long-gone seasonal and environmental changes. For me, it’s fascinating because it reveals what life was like back then. But it’s useful beyond that too. This body of data helps us understand and build resilience to climate change in the modern world.</p>
<p>Archaeological data is now of a standard where it can map past climate variability, offer context for human-induced climate change, and even improve future climate predictions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-how-archaeology-helped-save-the-franklin-river-92510">Friday essay: how archaeology helped save the Franklin River</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Surviving all the seasons</h2>
<p>As Earth takes its annual trip around the Sun, temperature, daylight hours and water availability vary through the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgHmqv_-UbQ">seasons</a>. These dictate natural cycles of animal breeding and migration, and plant fruiting and flowering. Such cycles control the availability of food, shelter, and raw material resources.</p>
<p>People living in cities might notice the changing seasons: autumn leaves turn a golden hue, and in summer fresh berries fill the supermarket shelves. </p>
<p>However, modern technology and global trade networks lessen the impact of the seasons on our daily lives. We can buy strawberries at any time of year (if we pay a premium). We can escape summer heatwaves by turning on air conditioners. </p>
<p>In most parts of Australia, our lives no longer depend on tracking the changes in plants and animals throughout the year. But in the past, if you weren’t in tune with seasonal patterns, you wouldn’t survive.</p>
<p>In my work I study how past people interacted with seasonal changes, using evidence from archaeological sites around the world.</p>
<p>Past and present <a href="https://theconversation.com/early-birds-how-climate-change-is-shifting-time-for-animals-and-plants-34766">seasonal patterns</a> have changed due to climate change, causing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737910500003X">cooler winters</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2468">warmer summers</a>, or altered <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2258">rainfall</a>. Different seasons may occur <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12755">earlier</a> or <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6351/588">later</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12568">last longer</a> or be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2468">more extreme</a>. </p>
<p>These changes have flow-on effects that can be detected in the archaeological record. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-shopping-want-to-eat-healthy-try-an-eco-friendly-diet-89086">Sustainable shopping: want to eat healthy? Try an eco-friendly diet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Life in ancient Libya</h2>
<p>One archaeological site where seasonal changes have been well studied is the <a href="https://www.arch.cam.ac.uk/research/projects/haua-fteah-project">Haua Fteah</a> cave in the Gebel Akhdar region of Libya. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237645/original/file-20180924-170656-1ffn8wx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The entrance to the Haua Fteah cave site, Libya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giulio Lucarini, University of Cambridge</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Haua Fteah covers the transitions from prehistoric hunter-gatherers (beginning around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047248417300283">150,000 years ago</a>), and prehistoric farmers (beginning around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047248413002261">7,500 years ago</a>), right the way through to more recent times.</p>
<p>We found the Haua Fteah experienced the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116300464">most arid</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117308521">highly seasonal</a> conditions just after the last global ice age. This changed the plant and animal resources available in the local landscape over 17,000 to 15,000 years ago. </p>
<p>However, despite the climate and resource instability, human activity was the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/libyan-studies/article/cyrenaican-prehistory-project-2010-the-fourth-season-of-investigations-of-the-haua-fteah-cave-and-its-landscape-and-further-results-from-the-20072009-fieldwork/7A3C6CCC383AFB48FA66E16ADACDE28D">most intense</a> during this period.</p>
<p>To investigate this, we compared climate records from the Gebel Akhdar and adjacent regions of North Africa. </p>
<p>It turns out that even though the Gebel Akhdar had an arid and highly seasonal climate, it was <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116300464">not as arid</a> as surrounding regions at this time. Scientists believe that increasingly dry conditions elsewhere led to population increases at the Haua Fteah – people were simply seeking a less hostile place to live. </p>
<p>Additionally, use of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618215009039">shellfish as a food source</a> changed from a predominantly winter-focused activity to a year-round activity during this period. </p>
<p>Year-round shellfish reliance was probably an adaptation to supplement the diet when other resources were less available. A mixture of climate and population pressures likely drove the restriction of resources and reliance on shellfish.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-crab-and-prawn-shells-go-red-after-they-have-been-cooked-94297">Curious Kids: Why do crab and prawn shells go red after they have been cooked?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237643/original/file-20180924-117383-1o20zg5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amy Prendergast excavating a shell rich layer from the archaeological site of Haua Fteah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giulio Lucarini, University of Cambridge</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But beyond just knowing what people ate, and when, hiding in such shells (and other items) are clues about regional differences in seasonality. </p>
<p>Here’s how it works.</p>
<h2>The remains of ancient meals</h2>
<p>Archaeologists are essentially trash sifters. We use clues preserved in artefacts, plant and animal remains that people threw away or left behind to reconstruct the past. </p>
<p>Hard animal parts, including <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440315000412">mollusc shells</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618215009684">teeth</a>, fish ear bones (<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-were-using-fish-ear-bones-as-time-capsules-of-past-river-health-95369">otoliths</a>) and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rcm.7670">antlers</a>, are routinely preserved in archaeological sites. These items accumulate from hunting, fishing, farming, and foraging activities. </p>
<p>The growth of these animal parts over time forms periodic growth rings, or increments. Much like tree rings in <a href="https://www.environmentalscience.org/dendrochronology-tree-rings-tell-us">dendrochronology</a>, the structure and chemical composition of these increments is influenced by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379115301888">environment</a>. By analysing these increments, we can understand what the environmental conditions during the animal’s life may have been like.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-bling-makes-us-human-101094">How 'bling' makes us human</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Seasonal variations in climate parameters such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018217302614">temperature</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016703718303284">rainfall</a>, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117308521">humidity</a> can be reconstructed by analysing the chemical composition of these growth increments using the presence of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018217302614">stable isotopes</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X11003475">trace elements</a>.</p>
<p>Analyses of the annual — and in some cases, fortnightly, daily and even tidal — increments allow us to reconstruct a detailed timeline of environmental change. This field of study is known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018217305862">sclerochronology</a> and it has expanded exponentially in the past couple of decades. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233204/original/file-20180823-149484-cdhoo8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Image of shell growth increments from a limpet shell. A shows where the shell is cut to reveal the cross section in B. The shell cross section in C has been stained to enhance the visibility of the increments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amy Prendergast</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The shells, teeth and animal bones that we analyse are the remains of food collected and consumed by people. Therefore climate reconstructions from them can be directly linked to human activity. </p>
<p>We can establish the animal’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618215009039">season of death</a> and season of exploitation by humans by examining the growth pattern or chemistry of the most recent growth increment. For example, we can use oxygen isotopes to reconstruct the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018217302614">sea surface temperature</a> when the animal died. A very cool temperature tells us that the animal was collected by humans during the winter. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233209/original/file-20180823-149475-l17quo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marine mollusc shells (<em>Phorcus turbinatus</em>) from the Haua Fteah archaeological site.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amy Prendergast</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My colleagues and I recently wrote a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352409X18305315">review article</a> and edited a journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352409X18305315">special issue</a> highlighting some of the latest research using these methods. The studies – which included evidence from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352409X17305862">prehistoric hunter-gatherers</a> in the Mediterranean to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352409X1830097X">historic Inuit sites</a> in Canada – show how people dealt with seasonal variability in the past. </p>
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
<p>Climate change is one of the most pressing issues in today’s world. </p>
<p>However, our understanding of how human-induced climate change fits into natural climate variability (pre-industrial) is limited by the instrumental record, which rarely extends beyond <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/292/5517/662">a century or so</a>. </p>
<p>Proxy records of past climate variability — such as increments from animal teeth or mollusc shells — extend our understanding of long-term climate variability.</p>
<p>Such abundant archaeological evidence can fill in the gaps from climate records about seasonal and sub-seasonal variation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rising-seas-will-displace-millions-of-people-and-australia-must-be-ready-101906">Rising seas will displace millions of people – and Australia must be ready</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We need the robust, quantitative, detailed data we are now getting from archaeological sites around the globe. It helps to <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/">contextualise</a> current and future climate change, and to form <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00176/full">baselines for environmental monitoring</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, these climate records are useful for testing and refining global and regional <a href="https://www.clim-past.net/10/221/2014/cp-10-221-2014.pdf">climate models</a>. More accurate climate models give us a better understanding of the overall climate system, and an enhanced ability to predict future climate change. </p>
<p>Such data may help us build resilience to climate change in our modern world.</p>
<p>So next time you tuck into your shellfish dinner, or juicy steak, take a moment to reflect on all of the useful information preserved in the intricate hard parts these creatures leave behind.</p>
<p>Will archaeologists of the future study your discarded shells and bones?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101823/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Prendergast previously received funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. She is currently employed by the University of Melbourne and receives funding from a McKenzie Fellowship.</span></em></p>Archaeologists are trash sifters. They use clues preserved in artefacts, plant and animal remains that people threw away or left behind to reconstruct the past.Amy Prendergast, Lecturer in Physical Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/958802018-09-27T20:24:18Z2018-09-27T20:24:18ZWhat evolution and motorcycles have in common: let’s take a ride across Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238074/original/file-20180926-48659-hdxqck.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=766%2C0%2C3215%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evolution and the art of motorcycle development, now that's an interesting connection.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>How can the development of motorcycles have anything to do with the story of the evolution of life on Earth? You need a palaeontologist to help answer that question, and one with a love of motorcycles.</em></p>
<p><em>The article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Thousands of people around the world will don some of their finest clothes and ride motorcycles this weekend in the <a href="https://www.gentlemansride.com/about">Distinguished Gentleman’s Ride</a>. The goal is to raise funds and promote awareness of men’s health issues.</p>
<p>I’m taking part, having been a motorcycle enthusiast since I got my first bike in 1975. Motorcycles are great fun, but there’s also a lot you can learn from riding one.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238069/original/file-20180926-48665-1l0y2g1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Long on his motorcycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The late author <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/24/525443040/-zen-and-the-art-of-motorcycle-maintenance-author-robert-m-pirsig-dies-at-88">Robert M Pirsig</a>’s 1974 classic book <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/books/review/Leland-t.html">Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance</a> exemplified this perspective. Pirsig contrasts the rational and romantic sides of human nature as he describes his motorcycle journey of self-discovery.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-many-dinosaurs-in-total-lived-on-earth-during-all-periods-100460">Curious Kids: How many dinosaurs in total lived on Earth during all periods?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>I’ve recently been contemplating similarities between the evolution of life and the early development of motorcycles, and what a motorcycle ride can teach us about the history of life.</p>
<h2>A ride across Australia shows the deep time of evolution</h2>
<p>The oldest life on Earth is shown in fossils of <a href="http://www.indiana.edu/%7Egeol105b/images/gaia_chapter_10/stromatolites.htm">stromatolites</a>, mounds of layered mats of blue green algae found in the Pilbara district of Western Australia, dated at around 3,500 million years ago.</p>
<p>Today similar life forms can be seen thriving in <a href="http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Stromatolites-and-other-evidence-1666.aspx">Shark Bay</a> and in some of the estuarine lakes around WA.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238040/original/file-20180926-149952-1ftt1fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Living colonies of stromatolites at Shark Bay in Western Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Ken McNamara</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By sheer coincidence, the distance from Perth to Melbourne is about 3,500km, a route I travelled on my motorcycle back in 1996. Thus, every kilometre I did on that transcontinental ride represents a million years of Earth’s history since life first evolved. Thus, every metre represents a millennium, and every millimetre a year. </p>
<p>Let’s use this metaphor of time and distance to highlight the big milestones of the evolution of life on such a ride. Travelling along at 100kmh we’d pass through 100 million years of Earth history each hour of riding.</p>
<p>If we are at the origin of life in Perth (at 3.5 billion years ago), the next milestone we encounter is the development of cells with a nucleus, or <a href="https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/_0/endosymbiosis_03">eucaryotes</a>. These appeared about 2 billion years ago, which on our ride would be around Ceduna in South Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=217&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238041/original/file-20180926-48637-wz1uxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not much happens until we cross the border into South Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/yewenyi/1264445183/">Flickr/Brian Yap</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The dawn of complex multicellular animal life (called metazoans), is seen by our famous <a href="http://www.samuseum.sa.gov.au/explore/museum-galleries/ediacaran-fossils">Ediacaran fossils</a> of the Flinders Ranges. <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/fossil-one-world-s-earliest-animals-according-fat-molecules-preserved-half-billion">Recent research</a> has just proven these are the oldest true animals. This event – dated at around 560 million years ago – is the equivalent of arriving at the town of Keith, South Australia, on our ride.</p>
<p>If we deviate south and travel into the Coonawarra, famous today for its fine wines, we reach the time of the great <a href="http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/cambrian/cambrian.php">Cambrian explosion of life</a>, starting about 540 million years ago. This is when nearly all the major groups of marine animals appeared on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217146/original/file-20180502-135840-10jkinz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How a ride across Australia (about 3,500km) translates into a true analogy of evolutionary deep times, where 1km of travel represents 1 million years of time passing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long, Flinders University</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The origin of backboned animals (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/vertebrate">vertebrates</a>) is another milestone represented by appearance of the first fishes. This happens as we drive across the border into Victoria on the road to Casterton.</p>
<p>Fishes left the sea and invaded land as early four-limbed <a href="https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evograms_04">tetrapods</a> by the time we reach Hamilton, and we enter the age of dinosaurs and the first mammals as we cruise the backroads into Skipton, about 230 million years ago.</p>
<p>If our journey is to end precisely at the <a href="https://auspost.com.au/locate/post-office/vic/melbourne/3000/melbourne-gpo-post-shop-350748">Melbourne Post Office</a> (GPO) on Elizabeth Street, then the appearance of our immediate human ancestors, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/life/Australopithecus">australopithecines</a>, will occur at a spot on the road about 3.5km from the GPO, on State Route 30.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238042/original/file-20180926-48662-8s4hrp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Approaching the Melbourne GPO building.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Melbourne_Old_Post_Office_Building.jpg">Wikimedia/Donaldytong</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We park the bike near the GPO and walk towards it. Modern humans (<em>Homo sapiens</em>) appeared on Earth about <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/oldest-homo-sapiens-fossil-claim-rewrites-our-species-history-1.22114">315,000 years ago</a>, or just 315 metres from our destination. To mark the point in time when the first peoples arrived in Australia, around 60,000 years ago, we reach a point just 60 metres from our final destination.</p>
<p>Finally, we take five large steps, each a metre, to reach the front door of the GPO and in this final act we’ve gone through most of recorded human civilisation, taken from the first <a href="https://www.livescience.com/23050-step-pyramid-djoser.html">step pyramid of Djoser</a> about 5,000 years ago in Egypt, to today. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238044/original/file-20180926-48662-1htxe47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You have reached your destination – The Melbourne GPO building is now a shopping centre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/13864021714/">Flickr/</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The rate of evolution of life compared with early motorcycles</h2>
<p>As a palaeontologist who studies life of the past, I see <a href="https://www.livescience.com/474-controversy-evolution-works.html">evolution</a> in action all around me. Not just in species of animals and plants that have adapted as their environments, but also through fossil species that couldn’t adapt and went extinct.</p>
<p>I’m now going to explore the metaphor of how the history of motorcycle development shows a similar tempo for diversification as that of early life, even if it is on a totally different scale of time.</p>
<p>Motorcycles, like life, had a long, slow history of development – followed by sudden explosions of innovative engineering diversification. Let’s arbitrarily start the clock from the invention of the first atmospheric combustion engine, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Newcomen">Newcomen steam engine</a>, in 1712.</p>
<p>Early steam-driven motorcycles, such as <a href="http://www.motorcyclemuseum.org/halloffame/detail.aspx?RacerID=264">Sylvester Roper’s steam velocipede</a>, were hazardous, as the metal boiler building up pressure was positioned between the rider’s legs – not something our safety advisers would like today. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237874/original/file-20180925-149985-dif87h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Roper steam velocipede, an early steam-powered motorcycle (c 1886).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The machine could run at speeds of 64kmh for up to an hour, becoming the first non-railed machine that could power a human at far greater speeds than just running.</p>
<p>The next major milestone is the creation of the fuel-air compressed combustion engine by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alphonse-Eugene-Beau-de-Rochas">Beau de Rochas</a> in 1862. Our modern four-stroke engine was developed by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nikolaus-Otto">Nicklaus Otto</a> around 1864 with help from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Eugen-Langen">Eugen Langden</a>.</p>
<h2>The first motorcycle</h2>
<p>The first ridden two-wheeled machine with handlebars and a combustion engine powered by this engine was Wilhelm Maybach and Gottleib Daimler’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgaErTp06q0">Reitwagen</a> or “<a href="http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=9361990">riding car</a>” – considered to be the world’s first motorcycle.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221323/original/file-20180601-142102-1ew40ut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=958&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A test vehicle for the high-speed four-stroke engine invented by Gottlieb Daimler and Wilhelm Maybach. The ‘riding car’ is also considered the world’s first motorcycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/picture.xhtml?oid=7434249">Daimler</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first trial ride was particularly exciting, as Daimler’s son Paul, aged 17, drove it for 12km on November 18, 1885. It was an unexpectedly eventful journey as the rider’s seat caught fire due to the hot tube ignition system wedged immediately below it.</p>
<p>It took another decade before Hildebrand and Wolfmuller of Germany would commercially produce a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aMn4wBtBrY">powered motorcycle</a> that was freely available on the open market in 1894.</p>
<p>Just like the sudden Cambrian explosion of life, the next few years saw a sudden great explosion of motorcycle diversity as expressed by varied engine types – a time when efficient four-stroke combustion engines of many kinds and varieties were fitted into strengthened bicycle-type frames.</p>
<p>Motorcycles of nearly all modern configurations then suddenly appeared between 1900 and 1912 from manufacturers in England, Europe and the United States. </p>
<p>Varied engine positions were trialled, from up high on the handlebars, or attached to either the front or rear wheels, but eventually the engine position stabilised (evolved) in a slung frame at the centre of the bike.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/227068/original/file-20180711-27033-1s5dgyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 300cc Cyclon made in Berlin (1900) had the engine mounted above the handlebars. Many experimental bike designs were trialled.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long, with permission of NSU Museum, Neckarsulm, Germany</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We find examples of single-cylinder engines of many types (<a href="https://www.cybermotorcycle.com/euro/brands/bradbury.htm">vertical</a>, <a href="https://www.firstversions.com/2015/04/harley-davidson.html">sloping</a>, horizontal), twin engines (upright, <a href="http://www.americanmotorcyclist.com/hof/Classic-Bikes/1908-indian-twin">in line V-twin</a>, transverse and inline; <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_(motorcycles)">flat horizontal twins</a>), <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR-FfL5Nf6Y">radial engines</a>, even three and four cylinder engines.</p>
<p>The first working two stroke engine bikes were commercially available in 1908. The British motorcycle manufacturer Humber had an <a href="http://www.ebikeportal.com/history/humbers-electric-tandem-1897">electric-powered bicycle</a> on the scene around 1897. Even the <a href="https://www.retromobile.com/Visitors/News/Millet-one-of-the-world-s-first-motorcycles">first rotary engine motorcycle</a>, invented by Felix Millet in 1889, went into production in 1900.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228938/original/file-20180723-189310-13ymnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1912 Verdel 5 cylinder radial engine motorcycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long, with courtesy Sammy Miller Museum, UK</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rates of evolution: motorcycles vs early life</h2>
<p>I’m now going to measure the rate of motorcycle evolution from the first atmospheric combustion steam engine in 1712 through to an arbitrary milestone in the 20th century that represents the emergence of the first highly complex modern motorcycle.</p>
<p>I’m choosing the appearance of Guilio Carcano’s V8 double overhead cam <a href="http://amcn.com.au/editorial/moto-guzzi-500-v8-racer/">499cc Moto Guzzi racer of 1955</a> to represent the dawn of the modern superbike.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217133/original/file-20180502-135814-6gexfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A 1955 Moto Guzzi V8 (500cc), perhaps the world’s first superbike, at the Moto Guzzi Museum, Mandello Del Lario, Italy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using this analogy, the time and tempo for motorcycle development (scaled between 1712-1955) follows a very similar pattern of diversification as the evolution of life over 3.5 billion years.</p>
<p>Since the invention of the first steam engine in 1712, it took about 160 years for the first steam-driven motorcycle to appear (about 62% of the time), and 182 years until the first commercial combustion-engine motorcycles were sold in 1894 (about 75% of the time).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/life-on-earth-still-favours-evolution-over-creationism-23419">Life on Earth still favours evolution over creationism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The peak of early motorcycle diversification at around 1908 took place at exactly 80% of the time elapsed, almost exactly at the same time ratio as the Cambrian explosion of life took place since life first appeared on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=252&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/217134/original/file-20180502-135830-13bvlf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A comparison showing the long slow development and then sudden diversification of life (top) with a similar pattern for the development of the combustion engine and motorcycle diversification (below).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Long</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Uncanny similarity perhaps?</p>
<p>I can probably find other comparison tales in the development of aircraft, ships, trains, cars or in any form of technology. But it’s a good example of how transdisciplinary knowledge can inform two disparate topics, seemingly not related, but with learning benefits on each side.</p>
<p>Something to think about next time you see or ride a motorcycle.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/238061/original/file-20180926-48653-15xe63j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the road!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ksuyin/5375046446/">Flickr/Su Yin Khoo</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em>On Sunday September 30, 2018, more than 120,000 gentlefolk in 650 cities worldwide will take part in the <a href="https://www.gentlemansride.com/">Distinguished Gentleman’s Ride</a> to raise funds and awareness for men’s health.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Long receives funding from The Australian Research Council</span></em></p>Travel from Perth to Melbourne and every kilometre you go represents 100 million years of life on Earth. So let’s take a ride, on a motorcycle of course.John Long, Strategic Professor in Palaeontology, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1029832018-09-20T20:14:59Z2018-09-20T20:14:59ZWhat makes you a man or a woman? Geneticist Jenny Graves explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236132/original/file-20180913-133877-35p1v7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's just a tiny part of the Y chromosome that kickstarts the development of testes. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/RjYS7t3eHR4">Kelly Searle/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
<p><em>Jenny Graves – 2017 recipient of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/x-y-and-the-genetics-of-sex-professor-jenny-graves-awarded-the-prime-ministers-prize-for-science-2017-85740">Prime Minister’s Prize for Science</a> – explains how key genes active early in life transform the embryo into a woman or a man, and that genes active later control how sex is expressed in physiology and behaviour.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>There are many cultural and social factors involved in making a baby into a man or a woman. But biologically speaking, sex starts when you’re just a tiny group of cells in your mother’s uterus. </p>
<p>We have a pretty good general idea of how “maleness” or “femaleness” develops in a human embryo, and how this is translated into the capacity to make eggs or sperm. </p>
<p>We’re also beginning to understand how many other genes contribute to the amazing variation in human sexual development, behaviour and identity.</p>
<p>The early flexibility in this system is fascinating. It reminds me of author Hugh Lofting’s iconic <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/pushmi-pullyu">Pushmi-pullyu</a> (“push-me-pull-you”), a two-headed character in the Doctor Dolittle stories, who is in a tizz to decide which way to go. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/x-y-and-the-genetics-of-sex-professor-jenny-graves-awarded-the-prime-ministers-prize-for-science-2017-85740">X, Y and the genetics of sex: Professor Jenny Graves awarded the Prime Minister's Prize for Science 2017</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>Germ cells and gonads</h2>
<p>Most cells in our bodies are destined to die. But set aside in an embryo are a few cells that retain their ability to become a whole person. These cells – called “<a href="https://embryology.med.unsw.edu.au/embryology/index.php/Primordial_Germ_Cell_Development">primoridal germ cells</a>” ultimately develop into sperm or eggs. </p>
<p>But they have a long journey to get there. About three weeks after conception, 50 primordial germ cells are set aside in membranes outside the embryo. They multiply and make an epic march into the embryo, moving right through the embryonic gut. These cells arrive in the embryonic gonads by six weeks.</p>
<p>Later they receive signals that direct them to become sperm (that are made in their billions throughout the life of a man), or to become the 20,000 eggs a girl is born with.</p>
<p>Eggs and sperm are unique in that each has half the number of chromosomes as other cells. People have two copies of the human genome in every body cell, one from mum and one from dad. Germ cells need to cut this back to a single genome which is a mixture of the two parents’ genes. This is accomplished by a clever type of cell division called “<a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/science/biology/cellular-molecular-biology/meiosis/a/phases-of-meiosis">meiosis</a>” in which the 46 chromosomes replicate once, but the cell divides twice.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236140/original/file-20180913-133895-1gc0ob5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meiosis is the process of cell division that creates 23 chromosomes in eggs and sperm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/education-chart-biology-reproduction-process-human-1057812935?src=T0B97WYYe4_hRQwUIoU1SA-1-7">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The organs in which all this happens are gonads: testes in men, ovaries in women. </p>
<p>Gonads start off as a ridge of cells on either side of the backbone-to-be at about five weeks after conception. This “<a href="https://discovery.lifemapsc.com/library/review-of-medical-embryology/chapter-98-the-genital-or-reproductive-system-the-primitive-genital-system">genital ridge</a>” starts off the same in all embryos.</p>
<p>But in embryos destined to be boys, the genital ridge receives a signal called the “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK9967">testis determining factor</a>” at ten weeks after conception. This signal kick-starts development of testes and suppresses ovarian development.</p>
<p>If it doesn’t get the testis signal, the genital ridge waits a few more weeks, and becomes an ovary.</p>
<p>Then factors from the testis or ovary push the germ cells one way or the other, into developing as either sperm or eggs.</p>
<p>The gonads don’t just make sperm or eggs. They also pump out hormones that affect the whole development of the embryo. The embryonic testis makes testosterone which directs male development, fashioning a penis and scrotum. Estrogen has the opposite effect – supporting the development of female genitalia, and priming the future breasts.</p>
<h2>What and where is the signal that initiates testes?</h2>
<p>We know the signal that leads to testis development comes from sex chromosomes.</p>
<p>The human genome is cut up into 23 long DNA molecules that we see as chromosomes under the microscope. All babies have 22 pairs of ordinary chromosomes (one set of 22 from mum, and one set from dad). </p>
<p>But boys and girls differ in the 23rd pair of chromosomes: girls have two copies of a medium-sized chromosome called the X. Boys have a single X and a tiny chromosome called the Y. The names have nothing to do with their shapes but reflect the mystery of their difference (“X” for unknown).</p>
<p>At meiosis in the testis, the X and Y chromosomes get segregated into different sperm – 50% of sperm will carry an X, 50% a Y. All eggs have a single X chromosome. </p>
<p>So on fertilisation, half the embryos start off with XX, and half with XY sex chromosomes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sex-genes-the-y-chromosome-and-the-future-of-men-32893">Sex, genes, the Y chromosome and the future of men</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>We know that the Y bears the testis signal, because <a href="https://biodifferences.com/difference-between-turner-and-klinefelter-syndrome.html">people</a> with only a single X are female, and people with two X chromosomes and a Y are male.</p>
<p>So the signal must come from a gene on the Y chromosome. In 1990 the signal was pinpointed near the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2396854">top of the Y chromosome</a>. This section of the Y was present in males and absent in females who had only part of a Y chromosome.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1695712">gene called SRY</a> was identified in this little bit of Y. It was <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/348448a0">proved to be</a> the “testis determining factor” by analysis of some girls who had a normal looking Y, but a mutant SRY, and by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/351117a0">inserting SRY into an XX mouse embryo</a> that developed as a male. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236141/original/file-20180913-133895-myfogf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The presence of male genitals usually indicates that the child has a Y chromosome.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/doctor-holding-beautiful-baby-boy-minutes-51311368?src=CYxGWsMUHvk34i8tpRW9yw-1-11">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does SRY work and what can go wrong?</h2>
<p>Once the SRY gene was identified we all thought it would be just one or two steps between SRY and the activation of other genes that make a testis.</p>
<p>But it turns out there is a complex web of reactions controlled by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3279640">at least 30 genes</a>. Some promote testis development. Some promote ovary development. Some antagonise testis formation, others antagonise ovaries. It’s a real push-me-pull-you situation.</p>
<p>There are also genes (one example is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10239">DMRT1</a>) that keep gonads on a clear pathway of development. If you knock such genes out, cells in the testis start behaving like ovary cells, or cells in the ovary start acting like testis.</p>
<p>But it doesn’t stop here. Remarkably, this one gene SRY, through its networks and hormonal influences, affects the activity of <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-about-sex-throughout-our-bodies-thousands-of-genes-act-differently-in-men-and-women-86613">more than 6,500 genes</a> (of our total 20,000) differently in men and women. </p>
<p>So males and females really are genetically very different both in the genes they have, and how active they are. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/differences-between-men-and-women-are-more-than-the-sum-of-their-genes-39490">Differences between men and women are more than the sum of their genes</a>
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<p>A mutation in any one of the 30 genes involved in the complex web of gonad-differentiating reactions can lead to sex reversal (XY females or XX males), or <a href="http://theconversation.com/boy-girl-or-dilemmas-when-sex-development-goes-awry-49359">incomplete gonad differentiation</a>. For instance, some females have a Y chromosome and an intact SRY gene, but lack the protein that receives <a href="https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/androgen-insensitivity-syndrome">signals from male hormones</a>. </p>
<p>And some XY females are <a href="https://jmg.bmj.com/content/jmedgenet/39/7/514.full.pdf">missing a bit of chromosome 4</a> that contains the gene <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10239">DMRT1</a>: you need two copies of this gene to be male, even with an SRY gene.</p>
<h2>Other genes control sex characters</h2>
<p>There are hundreds of genes needed to make sperm. Some lie on the <a href="http://theconversation.com/sex-genes-the-y-chromosome-and-the-future-of-men-32893">Y chromosome near SRY</a>, but others are <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2001/sperm-0404">on the X</a> or scattered throughout the genome (but active only in males). The same is probably true of making eggs.</p>
<p>There are also many other genes involved in sexual differentiation, making organs like penises and breasts.</p>
<p>Some gene variants are involved in choice of sexual partner. There are probably hundreds of so-called “gay genes” that <a href="http://theconversation.com/born-this-way-an-evolutionary-view-of-gay-genes-26051">I have suggested</a> are really “male-loving” genes, and there may also be hundreds of “female-loving” genes. These gene variants are common because in the other sex they express as especially male-loving females and female-loving males, who seem to mate earlier and have more children.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/born-this-way-an-evolutionary-view-of-gay-genes-26051">Born this way? An evolutionary view of 'gay genes'</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>I think the same may be true of genes that affect gender identity. Gene variants that promote a strong male identity might not always go along with a Y chromosome, and genes that promote a female identity may be incongruously partnered with a male-determining Y. Transgender identity may be common because, like “gay genes’, such gene variants would be strongly selected in the other sex – women with a strong female identity and males with a strong male identity might mate more enthusiastically and have more offspring. </p>
<p>It is extraordinary that something so fundamental and critical for species survival as sex should be controlled by such a complicated and variable web of genes. </p>
<p>We have to thank evolution for providing us with such complexity, and learn to celebrate the fantastic variation that nature has ensured.</p>
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<p><em>The winners of the 2018 <a href="https://science.gov.au/community/PrimeMinistersPrizesforScience/Pages/default.aspx">Prime Minister’s Prizes for Science</a> will be announced on October 17.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jenny Graves receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>There are many cultural and social factors involved in making a baby into a man or a woman. But biologically speaking, sex starts when you’re just a tiny group of cells in your mother’s uterus.Jenny Graves, Distinguished Professor of Genetics, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/977852018-07-05T20:05:54Z2018-07-05T20:05:54ZTime to honour a historical legend: 50 years since the discovery of Mungo Lady<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225879/original/file-20180703-116129-1sp5ap6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's been 50 years since the find of burnt bones in ancient soil, eroded from deep in shoreline dune in NSW.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Bowler</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>WARNING: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers should be aware that this article contains the images and names of deceased persons.</strong></p>
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<p><em>It was a discovery that changed the way we think of human habitation in Australia. But 50 years on, the man who made the find believes the story has still to reach a conclusion.</em> </p>
<p><em>The article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>This month we celebrate an event 50 years ago in western New South Wales that changed the course of Australian history. On July 15 1968, the discovery of burnt bones on a remote shoreline of an unnamed lake basin began a story, the consequences of which remain sadly unfinished today.</p>
<p>It’s the story of a legend, the discovery of <a href="http://www.nma.gov.au/online_features/defining_moments/featured/mungo-lady">Mungo Lady</a>, the first in the series of steps that led to the creation of the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/167">Willandra Lakes World Heritage</a> area. </p>
<p>But it’s a story where the making of a legend has fallen off the national radar, leaving a legacy of shame.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fifty-years-ago-at-lake-mungo-the-true-scale-of-aboriginal-australians-epic-story-was-revealed-98851">Fifty years ago, at Lake Mungo, the true scale of Aboriginal Australians' epic story was revealed</a>
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<p>At a time when we afford so much effort to remember those in Australia’s more recent history, is it not time to honour those who helped tell so much of the ancient history of our land?</p>
<h2>A timely discovery</h2>
<p>It was just one year after the circuit-breaking <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/May/The_1967_Referendum">1967 referendum</a>. Aboriginal people were being heard.</p>
<p>For me it was the beginning of a journey to explore the geological legacy of climatic change in our ice age landscapes, the ancient dunes, lakes and rivers.</p>
<p>I had recently joined the Australian National University Department of Geography and had chosen dry lake basins as possible rain gauges for ancient wet climates.</p>
<p>I was mapping ancient shorelines and finding strange objects, freshwater shells high above water levels, stone tools lying on erosion surfaces, fallen from above but with no certainty of their original undisturbed sites. People had been there long before me.</p>
<p>I reported my suspicions of ancient shoreline occupation of this now-dry basin to archaeological colleagues at the Australian National University. I later named the basin Lake Mungo, after the pastoral property lease that covered the major part of the basin, Mungo Station.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d114077.65528850946!2d142.9764200155365!3d-33.71871068348736!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x6ae7f27f13b520ef%3A0x3f38c9ad66983ef2!2sLake+Mungo!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sau!4v1530589706381" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0" style="border:0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<p>From geological analysis I was confident the lakeshore dune suggested origins at least 20,000 years ago. My archaeological colleagues immediately dismissed this with the warning: “Bowler, geologists should stick to stones. Leave the archaeology to us.”</p>
<p>That warning never anticipated the finding of bones in lake-shore stones.</p>
<p>Concerned to resolve the puzzle, I was studying freshwater shells deep in the dune core of this ancient lake margin. According to my field notes that was on July 15 1968, although it was incorrectly reported for a time as July 5. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226106/original/file-20180704-73312-1p9mj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diagrammatic cross-section through the site of suspected hearth, later identified as cremation site of Mungo I, arrowed. A (upper): Sketch from field notes of July 15 1968. B (lower): Details published in proceedings of the 1968-69 seminars (Aboriginal Man and Environment in Australia, Eds. Derek John Mulvaney & Jack Golson, 1971, ANU Press, 389ps)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Bowler</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If those shells represented a human <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/midden">midden</a> (a refuse heap), it involved occupation much older than accepted at the time. But was it human agency? Birds can carry shells.</p>
<h2>Burnt bones uncovered</h2>
<p>Returning to camp in the late afternoon, an interesting block of soil carbonate lay exposed on an erosion surface. Nothing special in itself, but this contained a substantial concentration of burnt bones.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226110/original/file-20180704-73326-1xjtzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">View east across southern end of Lake Mungo. The red dot shows the location of Mungo I (Mungo Lady) remains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Bowler</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Firmly cemented in soil carbonate, this reflected a fire of great antiquity. The organised burning of large mammalian bones, recorded in field notes as a probable hearth, clearly involved human agency. Ironically, this was the first item of archaeological evidence clearly in an undisturbed position.</p>
<p>Duly marked for future location, I reported these findings in an October 1968 archaeological seminar at the ANU. The photographs shown then of burnt bones of such obvious antiquity spoke for themselves.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226105/original/file-20180704-73309-16zgc1q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An enlargement showing fragments of burnt bones (arrowed) believed then to be part of a human hearth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Bowler</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The scepticism of my archaeological colleagues diminished. Despite an immediate invitation, it took another six months, until March 1969, to lead a team of soil scientists and archaeologists to the site.</p>
<p>Finding the bones exactly as I had left them eight months earlier, that clear sunny day generated immense excitement. Dr Rhys Jones, breaking away fragments of cemented bones, recognised remnants of a human cranium.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225881/original/file-20180703-116139-n7j2j9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The March 1969 photograph of the site on the day of archaeological recovery of bones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of the late John Mulvaney</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Suddenly, this was not just the reflection of human activity, we were in the presence of humanity itself. Australian archaeology took a leap forward!</p>
<h2>A very modern human from many years ago</h2>
<p>Collected into Professor John Mulvaney’s suitcase, the bones were delivered in Canberra to Dr Alan Thorne, the ANU physical anthropologist. His meticulous cranium reconstruction demonstrated the remains of a fully modern young woman.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225877/original/file-20180703-116135-1ga1ac4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mungo I (Mungo Lady) cranium reconstructed from cremation remains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of the late Dr Alan Thorne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dated by later work to 40,000 years ago, that small modern cranium had impacts far beyond its size. It remains today as the world’s earliest evidence of cremation.</p>
<p>It brought to a close the long and, to Indigenous peoples, the offensive practice of cranial profiling, the measure used to test differences between ancient and modern cranial features.</p>
<p>Following its earliest introduction by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Henry-Huxley">Thomas Huxley</a> in 1863 – a man known as Charles Darwin’s “bulldog” – the gathering of Aboriginal skeletal remains became a virtual industry. Grave robbers competed to supply university anatomy departments and museums around the world. </p>
<p>Alone, but now announced on the international stage, Mungo Lady’s clearly modern cranium brought it to an end. At 40,000 years ago, she was just like us!</p>
<h2>Mixed blessings</h2>
<p>To Aboriginal Australians, the removal of bones and the Thorne reconstruction brought mixed blessings.</p>
<p>Firstly, removal of remains without permission evoked memories of more grave robbing. For a time, cross-cultural tensions developed between scientific and Indigenous cultures.</p>
<p>Some nine years later, friendly dialogue led to the signing of an historical accord, a collaborative agreement between the two groups – scientists and traditional owners – each learning from the other. That agreement holds to the present day.</p>
<p>Secondly, Mungo Lady’s voice, declaring her rightful place in this landscape, stirred Aboriginal women into action, especially traditional owners among the three tribal groups – Mutthi Mutthi, Barkindji and Ngiyampaa.</p>
<p>As though by canonisation, she became a saintly figure, especially to the central pioneering elder, the late Alice Kelly, together with her companions from related tribal groups, Alice Bugmy, Tibby Briar and Elsie Jones.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225878/original/file-20180703-116117-wa98ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The late Alice Kelly (left) and Alice Bugmy (right) at the site of Mungo Lady, 1989.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jim Bowler</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>These four pioneering women stood together to assert Aboriginal ownership, to challenge the bureaucracy and ensure the legacy of Mungo Lady held pride of place in the history of Australia’s occupation.</p>
<p>Sadly, that resolve has been betrayed. The story of her heritage management is no less than disaster.</p>
<h2>The remains today</h2>
<p>Returned to traditional owners by Alan Thorne in 1992, the skeletal remains of this legendary person lie today in anonymous solitude with those of the later discovery, Mungo Man, out of sight and out of mind in storage at Lake Mungo visitor precinct. No monument, no place for respectful gratitude, no place to honour. </p>
<p>In late 2013, the NSW government, without warning, summarily dismissed all management structures, Central Management, the Elders Council and the scientific advisory group. For the last four years, there has been no management in place, no one to care.</p>
<p>A costly new plan of management was delivered by consultancy in early 2014, but there remains, even today, no management group to give it to. The governments of both NSW and federally have turned their backs on this legendary issue.</p>
<p>Traditional owners, scientists and the Australian public have been deprived of that fundamental right to honour the dead to whom our history owes so much.</p>
<p>But the nation owes a special debt to this ancient lady. In death, together with her Aboriginal women pioneers, she has changed the way we see ourselves across the cultural divide.</p>
<h2>Time to honour a Lady</h2>
<p>So a message for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull: <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-remember-pm-opens-100m-monash-centre-in-france-20180424-p4zbex.html">A$100 million appeared no problem for that worthy Monash memorial</a> to our dead in France.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mungo-man-returns-home-there-is-still-much-he-can-teach-us-about-ancient-australia-87264">Mungo Man returns home: there is still much he can teach us about ancient Australia</a>
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<p>It’s time now to cut through the tangled web of bureaucratic inertia, to bring the remains of those legendary Mungo figures, Mungo Lady and Mungo Man, from storage to a central place of honour.</p>
<p>The nation needs a vision, the inspiration to build the contemplative space where stories of ice age land and ice age people join to illuminate what it means to be Australian.</p>
<p>The Willandra Lakes World Heritage area provides the place. To do less adds additional shame to an already failed heritage trust.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim Bowler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s been half a century since Jim Bowler discovered Mungo Lady, which changed the course of Australian history. But now he says the find has fallen off the national radar, leaving a legacy of shame.Jim Bowler, Professorial Fellow,School of Earth Sciences,(Geology), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/978522018-06-10T20:04:59Z2018-06-10T20:04:59ZLife in a herd – and why in health watching symptoms is easy, but finding causes is hard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221901/original/file-20180606-137285-1j05mpj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p><em>With a rollicking story to set the scene, this piece from two science communication experts explores the notion of population health – what is it, and why does it even matter?</em> </p>
<p><em>The article is part of our occasional long read series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/zoom-out-51632">Zoom Out</a>, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Everyone knows we should exercise more, drink less, and stop scoffing junk food. Even committed smokers know that smoking is bad for them – but change isn’t easy. </p>
<p>The things that determine our health are complex and interwoven, and getting harder and harder to appreciate and communicate.</p>
<p>But whose responsibility is it to do this? And how can we start the right conversations? Last year we began working with <a href="https://preventioncentre.org.au/">The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre</a> to look at better ways to communicate the core messages of the field of population health science. </p>
<p>Over the course of talking with population health practitioners and researchers, we identified several key issues that affect how we all talk about what population health science is – and what it can do for us as a society. </p>
<p>But before we get into the details, let’s set the scene a little. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/alan-alda-on-the-art-of-science-communication-i-want-to-tell-you-a-story-55769">Alan Alda on the art of science communication: 'I want to tell you a story'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Picnic by a river</h2>
<p>An emergency physician, an intensive care specialist, and a population health scientist sat down for a picnic by a river.</p>
<p>Suddenly the doctors notice a body floating down the river!</p>
<p>They rush into the current to pull the man ashore, clear his airways, and start giving CPR.</p>
<p>But then they see another person in the water, face down. They rush out and drag her in. They clear her airways and do CPR.</p>
<p>But then a third body comes floating by!</p>
<p>Unexpectedly, the population health scientist gets up and starts running upstream along the river bank.</p>
<p>“Hey! Come back! Where are you going?” the others scream out to her. Looking over her shoulder she yells back:</p>
<p>“I’m going upstream to see who’s throwing all these people in!”</p>
<p><img width="100%" src="https://media.giphy.com/media/CPskAi4C6WLHa/giphy.gif"></p>
<p>A while later the population health scientist comes running back to the picnic. Dozens of treated survivors are staggering to their feet, and it looks like the other doctors have set up a mobile field hospital in place of the picnic. There’s even a politician cutting some sort of ribbon!</p>
<p>Breathless, the population health scientist runs into the field hospital.</p>
<p>“I’ve worked out who’s chucking the bodies in!” They all look up.</p>
<p>“It’s… big alcohol companies and big tobacco companies and big sugar companies and sedentary lifestyles and bad urban design and big car companies and capitalism and our desire for comfort and lazy options and a lack of green spaces! And the fact that apples rot but chocolate bars don’t. And other things! And I don’t want to seem like some sort of nanny state person but if we don’t do something about everything there’s gunna be more bodies coming down the river!”</p>
<p>The other doctors, the patients and the politician glare back at the population health scientist.</p>
<p>“Can’t you see I’m opening a grand new hospital!” the politician thumps. “Now’s not the time to be pointing fingers!”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-you-calling-anti-science-how-science-serves-social-and-political-agendas-74755">Who are you calling 'anti-science'? How science serves social and political agendas</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>The problem</h2>
<p>A population health scientist told us the first part of this allegory as a way to explain the big challenge of this field: that there’s always a health emergency going on, and we all tend to focus far more on symptoms than causes. As a society we channel our health efforts much like those doctors dragging the bodies out of the water: focused on emergencies and cures.</p>
<p>In contrast, population health science wants us to look upstream, at the things that cause ill health in the first place.</p>
<p>But the second part of the allegory – which we added – also rings true. The messages of population health science are complex and diffuse, and run into challenges at the core of society. Every other day there are announcements extolling the virtues of exercise or healthy eating, or the evils of sugar or alcohol or junk food. But really, most of us already know these things.</p>
<p>Now we all understand that there’s no such thing as a “one-size-fits-all” approach to awareness-raising and behaviour change. You have to divide and conquer, and take smaller, digestible bites out of great big problems. </p>
<p>But our hunch was that the problems of communicating the lessons of population health science ran deeper than that – that, as a society, we haven’t had enough of the conversations about health that we need to have. Or rather, enough of the right kinds of conversations.</p>
<p>So we decided to built a series of podcast interviews with public health insiders.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221916/original/file-20180606-137318-p7fcib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Interviewing Penny Hawe, Professor of Public Health at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy at the University of Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Will Grant and Rod Lamberts</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why this approach? Two reasons. </p>
<p>First, by having a relaxed chat with population health practitioners and researchers, listeners get to relate to them more as people. To hear them, rather than read them, and to get a feel for what they’re like.</p>
<p>Second, by listening to these interviews, other population health science people might find out about aspects of their professional world that they wouldn’t necessarily see via the standard meetings, papers and policy pronouncements.</p>
<p>You can listen to the chats <a href="http://wholesomeshow.com/life-in-a-herd">here</a>. </p>
<h2>So what did we find out?</h2>
<p>As we discussed the communication of, and engagement with, population health science with a range of interviewees, several things stood out.</p>
<p><strong>1. Even people with the knowledge don’t – or can’t – always practise what they preach.</strong> </p>
<p>This was exemplified in a great story about an international nutritionists’ conference at which the lunch was, ironically, far from the standards that nutritionists would suggest people observe. As a group they were aghast at the junk food on offer, but were eating it because that was all that was there.</p>
<p><strong>2. Population health science has a naming issue.</strong> </p>
<p>It was often unclear to us during these chats whether we should refer to public health, population health, population health science, or epidemiology. </p>
<p>For people on the inside, the differences between those labels are (hopefully) clear and (definitely) important, but for us on the outside … not so much. </p>
<p>This name confusion probably doesn’t matter to outsiders, as long as we are getting the health guidance that we want and need. So perhaps an important question for population health folk to ask themselves here is: “does it matter if people know the differences between these interrelated areas?” </p>
<p>But at a deeper level, does the label “public” adequately reflect the fact that the discipline is focused on all the things that affect our health beyond the chemistry and biology of our bodies, and not just what’s in the “public” sphere? If my health behaviours affect your health outcomes – if my drinking or exercise creates norms in which it is more or less likely that you will drink or exercise – is that a matter of public health or “shared health”? </p>
<p><strong>3. Population health science appears – as best as we could see – to be unreconciled in its political nature, and shy about its goals.</strong> </p>
<p>Emerging researchers in the field are often trained in engaging with the policy process (talking with bureaucrats and so on), but not with the political process. </p>
<p>Moreover, some spoke of the fact that, if they were asked to articulate a clear vision of what they’d like for society, they’d come up blank. Stepping towards improved population health is great, but it helps to first be confident that all of us (both inside and out) agree on the directions in which we should be stepping.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221915/original/file-20180606-137309-1unq0bc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hanging with Summer May Finlay, a health and communications consultant, and University of South Australia PhD candidate .</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Will Grant and Rod Lamberts</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Know your tribe - and others</h2>
<p>Life in the human herd is complex, and like it or not, we are unavoidably interdependent when it comes to our health. So conversations about the roles of population health, population health science, public health, and epidemiology in this picture are critical.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-part-of-a-social-group-making-sure-you-are-will-improve-your-health-81996">Are you part of a social group? Making sure you are will improve your health</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But people can’t have these conversations if they don’t know even know what members of their own tribe are thinking, let alone what’s going on in the minds of the rest of the pack, herd, mob or flock. </p>
<p>We aren’t suggesting that we have all the answers, but we certainly hope we have contributed to expanding the conversation - have listen and tell us what you think!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97852/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will J Grant has received research funding from the DIIS, he is also co-developer and co-host of The Wholesome Show. The series mentioned in this article was produced with some research funding for a studentship from The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Lamberts has received research funding from the ARC Linkage grant program and the DIIS. He is also the co-developer and co-host of the Wholesome Show podcast. The series mentioned in this article was produced with some research funding for a studentship from The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre.</span></em></p>Life in the human herd is complex, and we are unavoidably inter-dependent when it comes to our health. Population health science looks at the things that cause ill-health in the first place.Will J Grant, Senior Lecturer, Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National UniversityRod Lamberts, Deputy Director, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967262018-05-23T19:57:25Z2018-05-23T19:57:25ZHow a trip to Antarctica became a real-life experiment in decision-making<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219353/original/file-20180517-155555-zgim1f.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Homeward Bound initiative works with women in science to enhance their opportunity to take up leadership roles globally</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oli Samson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This adventurous tale is part of our occasional long read series Zoom Out. Enjoy!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>We were part of a group of 77 women travelling by ship to an Antarctic research station when our route was blocked by icebergs. We had to make a decision. Should we detour into rough open ocean to reach the target site, or abandon plans to visit Rothera Research Station and settle instead for a few days of exploring Antarctica’s calmer, protected waters? </p>
<p>This is the story of “Rothera-gate”, a leadership development experience on the largest all-female expedition to Antarctica. The 2018 expedition was the culmination of a year-long strategic leadership initiative for women scientists called <a href="https://homewardboundprojects.com.au/">Homeward Bound</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.sciencegenderequity.org.au/gender-equity-in-stem/">Men typically hold the leadership positions</a> in STEMM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medicine). In recognition of this, the Homeward Bound initiative works with women in science to enhance their opportunity to take up leadership roles globally, and contribute proactively to a sustainable world. </p>
<h2>Headed for Rothera</h2>
<p>Our experience took place while travelling down the Antarctic Peninsula to <a href="https://www.bas.ac.uk/polar-operations/sites-and-facilities/facility/rothera/">Rothera</a>, a British research station at 67° south, just inside the Antarctic Circle. This was intended to be the southernmost point of our journey. </p>
<p>While our group was largely women, several men were on board, including the captain of the ship (in charge from a legal perspective), the expedition leader and members of the Homeward Bound “Faculty” (a group of ten experts coordinating, organising and delivering the formal scientific leadership program throughout the voyage). </p>
<p>Our presence in Rothera would be a special occasion, as not many Antarctic ships make it that far south – only two ship visits are permitted each year. Ours was to be a final visit before the base closed for a two-year refurbishment.</p>
<p>On day 13 of our voyage, within 75km of Rothera, we passed between Adelaide Island and the Antarctic Peninsula into a narrow passage known as The Gullet. Wind and waves had blown icebergs into the passage, blocking our way south. Our expedition leader announced that a difficult decision had to be made: should we or should we not continue to Rothera? </p>
<p>To go, we would need to double back and around the outside of Adelaide Island, a potentially difficult 24-hour return detour. This foray into rough open ocean would likely lead to seasickness for some. Alternatively, we could remain and explore the calm protected waters of Crystal Sound for a couple of days.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=848&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219194/original/file-20180516-155558-y5kjl9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The options: re-route with risk of vomiting, or stay in calm waters?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rachelle Balez</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under other circumstances, such as a tourist passenger cruise, a unilateral decision would be taken by the captain and expedition leader. However, given the different and unique aims of our journey, this decision was handed over to the Homeward Bound organisational team (the “faculty”) who, in turn, consulted the participants.</p>
<p>An inclusive and supportive discussion among the 77 women assembled in the lounge of the ship followed, before a “closed eye” vote was taken. This allowed partipants to express their preference for either staying put, or pushing on to Rothera, without being influenced by the views of those around them – with the overall outcome noted by the observing faculty. </p>
<p>We voted overwhelmingly to venture outside Adelaide Island and push on south to Rothera. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219345/original/file-20180517-155555-3y1dwf.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lots of hands up in the voting with closed eyes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oli Samson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Plan B – and then Plan A again</h2>
<p>To our surprise, a decision was subsequently taken by the faculty not to press on south. Some of us were surprised that our collective vote was not itself the deciding factor; others were surprised that the decision made was not in line with the majority vote. </p>
<p>Many of us were severely disappointed, despite being reassured that the well-being of individuals had been prioritised.</p>
<p>The following morning, we cruised across Crystal Sound in zodiac inflatable boats while pods of orcas criss-crossed the bay in searched of prey. Our disappointment at not reaching Rothera evaporated as we laughed and scrambled with our cameras among icebergs.</p>
<p>Upon returning to the ship, our captain and expedition leader let us know that the swell had died down. Conditions were good to head around the outside of Adelaide Island to Rothera after all, and the ship was leaving imminently. We whooped for joy and wound our way south. </p>
<p>The visit to Rothera was a success. As we left the station a nearby icebreaker reported that a change in wind direction meant The Gullet was clearing of icebergs. It was now possible to use the strengthened hull of our ship to cut a path back north for the return voyage, revisiting the moving sheets of sea ice that had prevented our passage from the other direction. </p>
<p>The next 12 hours were spent slowly zig-zagging forward across a mosaic of sea ice interspersed with slushy, fragmented “frazzle” ice crystals. These crystals were a telltale sign that the ice was on the verge of freezing solid. </p>
<p>With each small amount of headway made, we watched the ice close in quickly behind us, wondering for how much longer our captain’s nerve would hold. The tension on the bridge was palpable. </p>
<p>While our safety was never in question, we came dangerously close to becoming a stuck ship and the object of a recovery operation. Recognising the power of nature as we finally broke free the following afternoon, we stood on the deck enjoying metaphors about breaking glass ceilings. This was undoubtedly the most adventurous moment of our voyage.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-273" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/273/e0ada41e1328aded5002d2320ac28c253b3f5cdc/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Leadership lessons</h2>
<p>Our journey offered many opportunities for reflection and learning. Over the three days that our story unfolded, we talked over the dinner table, in small groups, as a collective group and even workshopped the event, looking for meaning in the twists and turns of what happened.</p>
<p>Although the majority of women in the room had voted to continue south to Rothera, enough people expressed discomfort with the idea to trigger our organisational “faculty” team to change the plan. </p>
<h3>Informed versus participatory decision making</h3>
<p>Our first lesson highlights the difference between informed and participatory decision-making. While the former accounts for the views of a group of people, the latter is more like a typical democracy, and it depends on those views. </p>
<p>Some decision-making tools – for example, the <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.643.3379&rep=rep1&type=pdf">Myers Briggs Z tool</a> – weigh the needs of individuals against those of the collective group. Conventionally, if 35% of people are unsure about an action, their needs must be accounted for before moving forward. </p>
<h3>A tangled psychological web</h3>
<p>We used the Life Styles Inventory (LSI) chart to reflect on our individual thoughts and feelings in the moment we had voted, standing on the corresponding constructive, passive and aggressive behavioural styles on a Twister-like mat. This helped us to see <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-97354-010">how our thoughts guided us towards a desired outcome</a>. </p>
<p>A complex picture of multiple responses in individuals emerged. Scaled up across the 77 women in the room, these played out as a tangled psychological web, aptly captured by the tangle of bodies on the chart. </p>
<h3>Achievement versus empathy</h3>
<p>Many of us reported a swing away from “competitive” or “achievement” styles – which would underpin thoughts such as “I want to achieve the visit to Rothera Station!” – toward the seemingly contrasting humanistic and passive styles.</p>
<p>These would underpin empathetic thoughts such as “If I don’t go, I will be disappointed, but if we go, she will be miserable, uncomfortable and seasick, which is worse than disappointment”. </p>
<p>Once voiced, anxiety can be an influential and persuasive force among groups of women, who typically show <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/spanish-journal-of-psychology/article/are-women-more-empathetic-than-men-a-longitudinal-study-in-adolescence/8900C6ABC5BE52BCE657367A8516E48D">greater empathy for emotions such as fear</a>.</p>
<p>Even though they were widely reported afterwards, the competitive-achievement sentiments found little voice in the room at the time of the vote. They were largely eclipsed by empathy for the well-being of others. </p>
<h2>An opportunity taken</h2>
<p>It is ironic that the dramatic push to 67° south, and the adventurous return journey through the ice on our “largest all-female expedition to Antarctica” were ultimately determined unilaterally by two of the highest-ranking people on the ship. </p>
<p>They were experienced, gracious, brave and modest men. Given that they had been directing our movements for the entirety of the voyage up until this point, this begs the question, why didn’t they just make the decision to push forward to Rothera in the first place? </p>
<p>While a unilateral approach would undoubtedly have been more efficient, with the benefit of hindsight, such a directive would have meant that the women of Homeward Bound would have missed out on a key opportunity to come together. </p>
<p>At times, this was a messy and angst-ridden experience. But it allowed us to build a sense of cohesion and strength through adversity, while enjoying the excitement of orcas and the catharsis of breaking the ice. </p>
<p>This raises an important question about leaders who habitually rely purely on expert opinion and authority as a basis for a decision, and regularly get acceptance. Do these leaders miss the opportunity for true ownership, engagement and perhaps even a better overall outcome that a longer, more unwieldy but ultimately more consultative approach may generate?</p>
<p>Given the lack of female representation in STEMM leadership roles, is this opportunity currently being missed in key decision-making forums on sustainability?</p>
<h2>The value of diversity in decision-making</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most important lesson from our story is the <a href="https://journals.co.za/content/om_hrf/04/1/EJC186881">value of diversity</a> in the decision-making process. Compared with their male counterparts, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Organization/Our%20Insights/Women%20matter/Women_matter_oct2008_english.ashx">research suggests</a> that <a href="https://hbr.org/2012/03/a-study-in-leadership-women-do">women together</a> are a little <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2003-06077-007">more collaborative</a> and inclined towards <a href="https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/0022-4537.00241">participatory decision-making</a>.</p>
<p>This was reflected in the purpose, consensus and empathy for the discomfort of others as 77 women consulted to make a collective decision. It was then followed up by a more directive decision based on the expertise and authority of our captain and expedition leader. </p>
<p>The two decisions together meant that we could have our cake and eat it: we empathised, we bonded over orcas, we reached Rothera Station, and we smashed the ice on the way home for good measure!</p>
<p>In a world of pressing scientific agendas, perhaps the best gains are made when different leadership styles come together. </p>
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<p><em>The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Marshall Cowley, Senior Leadership Consultant at Dattner Grant, for his insight, expertise and help in preparing this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96726/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This year 77 women took part in the largest all-female expedition to Antarctica as part of a leadership training program. Rough weather enroute put group decision-making skills to the test.Sarah Hamylton, Senior Lecturer, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of WollongongRachelle Balez, PhD Candidate, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/961222018-05-17T20:06:17Z2018-05-17T20:06:17ZHope and fear surround emerging technologies, but all of us must contribute to stronger governance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218758/original/file-20180514-178757-1pr4tau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/566877226?size=huge_jpg">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional series Zoom Out. Here we offer authors a slightly longer essay format to widen their focus, and explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>It’s been a big year for companies pushing the boundaries of technology – and not in a good way. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cambridge-analyticas-closure-is-a-pyrrhic-victory-for-data-privacy-96034">Cambridge Analytica scandal</a> led to a public outcry about privacy, the Commonwealth Bank’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-02/commonwealth-bank-confirms-loss-financial-records-20m-customers/9720928">loss of customer data</a> raised concerns about cybersecurity, and a fatal self-driving car crash put the <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-cant-be-perfectly-safe-whats-good-enough-3-questions-answered-92331">safety of automated systems</a> in the spotlight.</p>
<p>These controversies are just the latest warning signs that we urgently need better governance of the technologies redefining the world. There is a widening gap in knowledge between those creating and using emerging technologies and those we charge with regulating them. Governance cannot be left just to the public sector – it is a job for all citizens. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-up-or-holding-back-the-regulation-challenge-for-government-47915">Keeping up or holding back? The regulation challenge for government</a>
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<p>Until now, we’ve been sleepwalking through the early stages of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/">Fourth Industrial Revolution</a>. We dream of a future where artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, distributed ledgers and neurotechnologies magically make life better for all. </p>
<p>As we begin to wake up, it’s becoming clear the world has already changed around us in profound ways. We’re realising that creating and commercialising powerful new technologies is the easy part – the hard bit is making sure these new capabilities give us what we need and want, rather than what we imagine and fear. </p>
<h2>Building the technology we want</h2>
<p>What we want is to realise the benefits of revolutionary new digital technologies to the economy, our quality of life and a more sustainable world. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.alphabeta.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/The-Automation-Advantage.pdf">Analysis by consultancy AlphaBeta</a> suggests that automation could add A$2.2 trillion to cumulative Australian GDP between 2017 and 2030. In healthcare, diagnostic approaches and treatments targeted to individuals could be as dramatic a change in our ability to prevent and treat illness as was the introduction of sanitation and antibiotics. </p>
<p>More generally, advances in machine learning are demonstrating that algorithms can simultaneously benefit companies, shareholders, citizens and the environment. We may be amazed at the prowess of computers <a href="https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/">beating the world’s best Go players</a>, but perhaps more impressive is that Google DeepMind’s AI managed to <a href="https://deepmind.com/blog/deepmind-ai-reduces-google-data-centre-cooling-bill-40/">reduce Google’s Data Centre energy use by 15%</a>. That’s a recurring benefit amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. DeepMind subsequently launched <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/27c8aea0-06a9-11e7-97d1-5e720a26771b">discussions with the UK’s National Grid</a> to try and save 10% of the UK’s energy bill.</p>
<p>What we fear is that history will rhyme, and not in a good way. </p>
<p>The social and environmental damage resulting from previous industrial revolutions taught us that new technologies don’t inevitably lead to better outcomes for everyone. For a start, the benefits are often unevenly distributed – witness the one billion people around the world who <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS">still lack access to electricity</a>. And when we do discover that harm is occurring, there’s often a significant lag before the law catches up. </p>
<h2>What it means to be awake</h2>
<p>Most fundamentally, being awake means recognising that the same exciting systems that promise openness and deliver convenience come with significant costs that are affecting citizens right now. And many of those costs are being borne by those least able to afford them – communities with less access to wealth or power, and those <a href="https://theconversation.com/drug-testing-welfare-recipients-raises-questions-about-data-profiling-and-discrimination-77471">already marginalised</a>. </p>
<p>These costs go well beyond risks to our privacy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/big-data-algorithms-can-discriminate-and-its-not-clear-what-to-do-about-it-45849">Big data algorithms can discriminate, and it's not clear what to do about it</a>
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<p>When an algorithm fails to predict the next word you want to type, that’s generally not a big deal. But when an algorithm – intelligent or otherwise – uses a flawed model to decide whether you are <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/government-by-algorithm/">eligible for government benefits</a>, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing">whether you should get bail</a> or whether you should be allowed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-credit/china-to-bar-people-with-bad-social-credit-from-planes-trains-idUSKCN1GS10S">board a flight</a>, we’re talking about potential violations of human rights and procedural fairness.</p>
<p>And that’s without getting into the challenge of <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/vr-has-a-harassment-problem-too/">harassment within virtual reality</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c7e00344-111a-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277">the human security risks posed by satellite imagery</a> that refreshes every day, and the ways in which technologies that literally read our minds <a href="https://singularityhub.com/2017/11/21/scientists-lay-out-urgent-ethical-concerns-for-the-future-of-neurotechnology/#sm.0001iqh7rfkrjf0zrwc2ea8gq2i76">can be used to manipulate us</a>.</p>
<h2>The government alone can’t fix this</h2>
<p>It’s tempting to say that this isn’t yet a big problem. Or that if it is a problem, it must be up to the government to find a solution.</p>
<p>Unfortunately our traditional, government-led ways of governing technologies are far from fit for purpose. Many emerging technologies, such as novel applications of machine learning, cryptocurrencies and promising biotechnologies are being developed – and often commercialised – at breakneck speed that far exceeds legislative or regulatory cycles. As a result, public governance is continually out of date. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the novelty and complexity of emerging technologies is widening the knowledge and skills gap between public and private sectors. </p>
<p>Even communication is getting harder. As former US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright <a href="https://medium.com/dfrlab/we-need-21st-century-responses-6b7eed6750a4">put it</a>:</p>
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<p>Citizens are speaking to their governments using 21st century technologies, governments are listening on 20th century technology and providing 19th century solutions. </p>
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<p>Our governance solutions are out of step with today’s powerful technologies. This is not the fault of government – it’s a design flaw affecting every country around the world. But given the flaw exists, we should not be surprised that things are not going as well as we’d like.</p>
<h2>How do we get out of this pickle?</h2>
<p>Here are three suggestions. </p>
<h3>1. Take an active role in shaping future directions</h3>
<p>We need to shift our mindset from being passive observers to active participants. </p>
<p>The downside of talking about how powerful and transformational new technologies are is that we forget that human beings are designing, commercialising, marketing, buying and using this technology. </p>
<p>Adopting a “wait and see” approach would be a mistake. Instead, we must recognise that Australian institutions and organisations have the power to shape this revolution in a direction we want. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-and-regulation-must-work-in-concert-to-combat-hate-speech-online-93072">Technology and regulation must work in concert to combat hate speech online</a>
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<p>This approach means focusing on leading – rather than adapting to – a changing technological environment in partnership with the business community. One example is the Swinburne <a href="http://www.swinburne.edu.au/research/strengths-achievements/strategic-initiatives/factory-of-the-future/">Factory of the Future</a>, which gives Victorian businesses exposure to the latest technologies and processes in a non-competitive, supportive environment. It also offers ways of assessing the likely impact of technology on individual companies, as well as entire sectors.</p>
<h3>2. Build a bridge between public and private sectors</h3>
<p>We need to embrace any and all opportunities for collaboration across the public and private sectors on the issue of new governance models. </p>
<p>Technology leaders are starting to demand this. At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in January 2018, Uber’s Dara Khosrowshahi <a href="https://government.diginomica.com/2018/01/23/world-economic-forum-2018-trust-valued-higher-growth-4ir/">said</a>: </p>
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<p>My ask of regulators would be to be harder in their ask of accountability.</p>
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<p>At the same meeting, Marc Benioff, CEO of SalesForce, called for more active public sector guidance, saying: </p>
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<p>That is the point of regulators and government – to come in and point true north. </p>
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<p>To have real impact, cross-sector collaboration should be structured to lead to new Australian partnerships and institutions that can help spread benefits, manage costs and ensure the technology revolution is centred on people. </p>
<p>In 2017, the World Economic Forum launched its <a href="https://www.weforum.org/center-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution">Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution</a> in San Francisco. It works directly with multinationals, startups, civil society and a range of governments to pilot new governance models around AI, drones, autonomous vehicles, precision medicine, distributed ledgers and much more. </p>
<p>The Australian government and business community can and should benefit from this work. </p>
<p>Cross-sector collaboration means much more than simply getting stakeholders in a room. Recent work by the <a href="https://www.petrashub.org/an-international-dimension-to-the-living-in-the-iot-conference-and-exhibition/">PETRAS Internet of Things Research Hub</a> – a consortium of nine leading UK universities – found that most international discussions on cybersecurity have made no progress relevant to IoT in recent years. A primary reason for this is that the technical experts and the policymakers find it difficult to interact – they essentially speak different languages. </p>
<p>The same challenge has been facing the international community working on the governance of lethal autonomous weapons systems. Anja Kaspersen, the UN’s Deputy Secretary General of the Conference on Disarmament, <a href="https://cartesius-tv.com/event/T2HffKc">noted recently that</a>, when it comes to discussing how the use of lethal robots might be controlled, her most valuable role is to be a translator across disciplines, countries and sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-tech-giants-a-cautionary-tale-from-19th-century-railroads-on-the-limits-of-competition-91616">For tech giants, a cautionary tale from 19th century railroads on the limits of competition</a>
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<p>By taking this approach at the April 2018 meeting of the <a href="https://www.unog.ch/80256EE600585943/(httpPages)/7C335E71DFCB29D1C1258243003E8724">Group of Government Experts</a>, Kaspersen and Ambassador Amandeep Singh Gill made substantial progress in aligning expert views and driving convergence on issues, such as the primacy of international humanitarian law.</p>
<p>The desired outcome is not just new rules, but inclusive governance structures that are appropriately adapted to the fast-changing nature of new technologies. While reaching out across across geographic and sector boundaries takes considerable time and energy, it is worth the effort as it often leads to unexpected benefits for society.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://industry.gov.au/industry/Industry-4-0/Pages/PMs-Industry-4-0-Taskforce.aspx">The Prime Minister’s Industry 4.0 Taskforce</a> was inspired by Germany to encourage collaboration between government and the labour movement on issues facing industry and workers. As a result, the cross-sector Industry 4.0 Testlabs and the Future of Work and Education workstream is co-chaired by Swinburne’s Aleksandar Subic and the National President of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Andrew Dettmar.</p>
<h3>3. Tackle the moral component of emerging technologies</h3>
<p>Third, we need to appreciate that these issues cannot be solved by simply designing better algorithms, creating better incentives or by investing in education and training, as important as all those aspects are. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20024652?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Technologies are not neutral</a>. They are shaped by our assumptions about the world, by our biases and human frailties. And the more powerful a technology is, the greater our responsibility to make sure it is consciously designed and deployed in ways that uphold our values. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/10/centrelink-debt-scandal-report-reveals-multiple-failures-in-welfare-system">The Centrelink robo-debt controversy</a> demonstrated what happens when algorithms prioritise the value of efficiency over the value of protecting people – and how this can backfire.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the ethical and moral aspects of technology are often (and incorrectly) viewed as falling into one of two categories. Either as soft, imprecise and inessential issues interesting only to lefty activists: a distraction in the boardroom. Or as technical, regulatory, compliance-related challenges, discussed in the boardroom only when a crisis has occurred. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-robo-debt-debacle-heres-how-centrelink-can-win-back-australians-trust-74256">After the robo-debt debacle, here's how Centrelink can win back Australians' trust</a>
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<p>A far more useful framing of ethics in technology is as a set of practical, accessible and essential tools that can help organisations create sustainable value. A forthcoming white paper from the World Economic Forum on Values, Ethics and Innovation argues that leaders can and should make ethics a priority when inventing, investing in, developing, deploying and marketing new ideas and systems. </p>
<p>A critical task here is building ethical considerations into the very early stages of creating new technologies. Commercial AI teams are beginning to do this. </p>
<p>One example is the recent formation of <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/2018/03/29/satya-nadella-email-to-employees-embracing-our-future-intelligent-cloud-and-intelligent-edge/">Microsoft’s AI and Ethics in Engineering and Research (AETHER) Committee</a>, announced in March this year. It brings together senior executives to develop internal policies around responsible innovation in AI, with the AI research team reporting through members of the committee.</p>
<h2>The next step is leading together</h2>
<p>Governing emerging technologies is as much a moral and political task as a technocratic challenge. All Australians need to be involved in discussing what we want from technology, and helping to design the institutions that can help us avoid costs we’re not willing to bear as a society.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/engineers-philosophers-and-sociologists-release-ethical-design-guidelines-for-future-technology-88696">Engineers, philosophers and sociologists release ethical design guidelines for future technology</a>
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<p>In practice, this means more frequent and more diverse conversations about the impact of today’s and tomorrow’s technology. It means more innovative forms of public debate. And it means that the most influential institutions in this space – particularly Australian governments, technology firms and national champions – need to listen and experiment with the goal of social, as well as economic and technological, progress in mind. </p>
<p>We’re starting to wake up. Now the real work begins.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Davis is Head of Society and Innovation and a member of the Executive Committee at the World Economic Forum and is an Adjunct Professor at Swinburne University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of the Arts (FRSA) in the UK, an Associate Fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and on the board of the IMP3rove European Innovation Management Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Aleksandar Subic is the Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research & Development) at Swinburne University of Technology. He is affiliated with the Prime Ministers Industry 4.0 Taskforce and the Australian Industry Group (AiG) - Advanced Manufacturing Council Leaders Group, and is on the governing Boards of Oceania Cybersecurity Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and National Imaging Facility (NIF).</span></em></p>Recent controversies associated with the impact, privacy and security of new technologies signal that we need better governance. The government alone can’t fix this. This is a job for everyone.Nicholas Davis, Adjunct Professor of Swinburne Social Innovation Institute, Swinburne University of TechnologyAleksandar Subic, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Development), Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/959192018-05-03T20:21:03Z2018-05-03T20:21:03ZThe Dreamtime, science and narratives of Indigenous Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/217130/original/file-20180501-135803-tkypa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lake Mungo and the surrounding Willandra Lakes of NSW were established around 150,000 years ago. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-over-famous-walls-china-mungo-580536352?src=BM3RK99LNXsfkXUcrXCK0Q-1-0">from www.shutterstock.com </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is an extract from an essay <strong>Owning the science: the power of partnerships</strong> in <a href="https://griffithreview.com/editions/first-things-first/">First Things First</a>, the 60th edition of Griffith Review.</em></p>
<p><em>We’re publishing it as part of our occasional series Zoom Out, where authors explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em></p>
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<p>Scientific and Indigenous knowledge systems have often been in conflict. In my view, too much is made of these conflicts; they have a lot in common.</p>
<p>For example, Indigenous knowledge typically takes the form of a narrative, usually a spoken story about how the world came to be. In a similar way, evolutionary theories, which aim to explain why particular characters are adapted to certain functions, also take the form of narratives. Both narratives are mostly focused on “origins”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-when-did-australias-human-history-begin-87251">Friday essay: when did Australia’s human history begin?</a>
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<p>From a strictly genetic perspective, progress on origins research in Australia has been particularly slow. Early ancient DNA studies were focused on remains from permafrost conditions in Antarctica and cool temperate environments such as northern Europe, including Greenland.</p>
<p>But Australia is very different. Here, human remains are very old, and many are recovered from very hot environments.</p>
<p>While ancient DNA studies have played an important role in informing understanding of the evolution of our species worldwide, little is known about the levels of ancient genomic variation in Australia’s First Peoples – although some progress has been made in recent years. This includes the landmark recovery of genomic sequences from both contemporary and ancient Aboriginal Australian remains.</p>
<h2>Found, or revealed?</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.visitmungo.com.au/who-was-mungo-lady">Mungo Man and Mungo Lady</a> have been the subject of both Indigenous and scientific narratives.</p>
<p>From a scientific perspective, in 1968 the burnt remains of a woman were recovered at Lake Mungo by Jim Bowler, a young geologist. Six years later, after heavy rain, Bowler was riding his motorbike around the lake and again found human remains, this time of a man.</p>
<p>From an Indigenous perspective, it was not that Jim Bowler discovered these ancient people but that they found him. And of course, one is struck by the apparent coincidence that they both revealed themselves to the same person, albeit six years apart.</p>
<p>Professor <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jim-bowler-145173">Jim Bowler</a> is a distinguished scientist who has close ties with, and an understanding of, Australia’s First Peoples, so Mungo Lady and Mungo Man chose well.</p>
<h2>Since the Dreamtime</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most well-known conflict between scientific and Indigenous perspectives relates to the origins of Aboriginal Australians.</p>
<p>From an Indigenous perspective, Aboriginal Australians have always been on this land – since the Dreamtime. From a scientific perspective, there is strong evidence that they have been here for more than 65,000 years – not quite “always”.</p>
<p>From my perspective, though, 65,000 years seems pretty close to “always”, and, moreover, it is likely that people became Aboriginal Australians when they first set foot on this land. So, in this sense, they have indeed always been here.</p>
<p>When a <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/98/2/537">publication by Professor Alan Thorne</a>, a prominent Australian anthropologist, and his colleagues from the Australian National University appeared in the journal PNAS in 2001, it drew worldwide attention. The authors reported the recovery of short <a href="https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/primer/basics/mtdna">mitochondrial DNA</a> from Mungo Man, as well as the other ancient remains of a number of people from the Willandra Lakes region.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-mitochondria-and-how-did-we-come-to-have-them-83106">Explainer: what are mitochondria and how did we come to have them?</a>
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<p>The results from their analysis, which included an evolutionary tree of recovered DNA sequences, suggested that Mungo Man was genetically different to the other ancient people they studied, who were closely related to the Aboriginal Australians of today.</p>
<p>This implied that contemporary Aboriginal Australians replaced another population of humans that lived here first.</p>
<p>This conclusion caused widespread offence among Aboriginal people, though it was difficult for them to reject the scientific claims. Some <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2001/01/01/2813404.htm">scientists argued</a> that Thorne’s results were highly unlikely to be correct, given the age of the remains and the hot environment in which they had been interred. It was not, however, possible to refute these claims without a detailed understanding of the methods used and the opportunity to redo the experiment.</p>
<p>Some politicians and commentators seized on the result to <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-might-there-have-been-people-in-australia-prior-to-aboriginal-people-43911">argue against constitutional recognition of Aboriginal Australians</a>, suggesting there was considerable doubt about their First Peoples status.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-might-there-have-been-people-in-australia-prior-to-aboriginal-people-43911">FactCheck: might there have been people in Australia prior to Aboriginal people?</a>
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<h2>Big personalities</h2>
<p>Big personalities have dominated Australian archaeology and anthropology, and influenced its development – Alan Thorne prominent among them. He first became involved in the Lake Mungo excavations under the archaeologist Jim Bowler in 1969, reconstructing the remains of the skeleton of Mungo Lady.</p>
<p>Five years later he also reconstructed Mungo Man and led excavations at other important burial grounds in Victoria. Thorne was very well known for his work on the multiregional evolution hypothesis, a model of human evolution that disputed the more widely known recent African origin (or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-scientists-turn-to-asia-and-australia-to-rewrite-human-history-88697">out of Africa</a>”) hypothesis.</p>
<p>For more than a decade after Thorne’s research was published, his work on Mungo Man and other ancient people from Willandra went largely unchallenged, despite the distress it caused to Aboriginal Australians.</p>
<p>Then, in 2010, with the permission of the Paakantji, Ngyiampaa and the Mutthi Mutthi peoples of the Willandra Lakes, my colleagues and I from the Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution were able to resample these important remains.</p>
<p>With the advantages of technology that had developed in the preceding decade, we repeated much of the original work. The new technology meant that we were able to recover much smaller amounts of DNA (if it was still present in the remains) and sequence it.</p>
<p>In 2016, we also <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/25/6892">published the results</a> in PNAS journal. Our findings provided <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-dna-study-confirms-ancient-aborigines-were-the-first-australians-60616">strong evidence</a> to refute the claims made by Thorne and his colleagues, showing it was not possible to recover any DNA that unequivocally belonged to Mungo Man.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-dna-study-confirms-ancient-aborigines-were-the-first-australians-60616">New DNA study confirms ancient Aborigines were the First Australians</a>
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<p>We did, however, recover five distinct DNA sequences from his remains. But these sequences revealed no ancient DNA damage patterns, indicating that they were not ancient sequences – and genetic analysis showed that they were European in origin. Clearly these were sequences from people who left their DNA on the bone material after handling Mungo Man’s remains.</p>
<h2>New techniques, new light</h2>
<p>Our study set the record straight. We refuted the claim that Mungo Man was a member of an earlier group of people that previously inhabited Australia and not an Aboriginal Australian.</p>
<p>Perhaps of equal importance, we were able to recover substantial coverage of the mitochondrial genome from another ancient Willandra Lakes man, who was buried only a few hundred metres from Mungo Man.</p>
<p>The remains contained about 1% human DNA; from them, we were able to recover two complete mitochondrial genomes. One of these was a previously unidentified Aboriginal Australian mitochondrial genetic type, almost certainly from the remains themselves. The other was European in origin, and certainly a contaminant.</p>
<p>It appeared that this man was from within the Holocene period (that is, the period since the last Ice Age that ended around 11,700 years ago); we know this because the skeletal remains were not heavily mineralised. His teeth exhibited a pattern of wear typical of Aboriginal hunter-gatherer populations and included no evidence of cavities or tooth decay. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-scientists-turn-to-asia-and-australia-to-rewrite-human-history-88697">World's scientists turn to Asia and Australia to rewrite human history</a>
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<p>Combined with the lack of mineralisation in the bone and its position in the soil layers at Lake Mungo, various authors have suggested that the remains were a few thousand years old. This is important, because it means that he represents the best “proxy” currently available for Mungo Man.</p>
<p>The fact that he was buried so close to the oldest-known Australian, albeit much later, suggests a common place and country. This is particularly significant given that the environmental conditions were very different at the times of the two burials, which were about 40,000 years apart.</p>
<p>Hence, nuclear gene studies of this man, currently underway, will be especially relevant to our understanding of Mungo Man himself. And because the nuclear genome is much larger than the mitochondrial, it will reveal much more information.</p>
<p>Such nuclear genome studies enable us to establish kinship relationships between people living now and ancient peoples. Such studies will take substantial time and effort, and will require the development of new innovative genomic tools.</p>
<p>Ethical considerations demand Aboriginal involvement in both the design and operation of such new techniques, as well as new research relationships with Indigenous communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/buried-tools-and-pigments-tell-a-new-history-of-humans-in-australia-for-65-000-years-81021">Buried tools and pigments tell a new history of humans in Australia for 65,000 years</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lambert receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>New techniques for genetic analysis are helping us build more detailed and accurate stories about the ancient histories of the first Australians.David Lambert, Professor of Evolutionary Biology, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/934302018-04-05T20:03:21Z2018-04-05T20:03:21ZStephen Hawking: blending science with science fiction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211919/original/file-20180326-148726-bvxcdc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fact or fiction? Either way, an alien still seems menacing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cindy Zhi/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of our occasional series Zoom Out. Here we offer authors a slightly longer essay format to widen their focus, and explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>Theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking <a href="https://theconversation.com/tributes-pour-in-for-stephen-hawking-the-famous-theoretical-physicist-who-died-at-age-76-93363">died recently at the age of 76</a>. </p>
<p>He was a man who had a significant influence on the way we view science today, noted for his work with <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Roger-Penrose">Sir Roger Penrose</a> on the singularities at the origins and future of the universe, starting with the Big Bang, and ending in black holes. His work had significant implications for the search for a unified theory that would link Einstein’s general relativity with quantum mechanics, and discussions that originated from his work continue to reverberate in the field of theoretical physics. </p>
<p>Beyond doing an excellent job of raising the public profile of black holes, Hawking also wrote and spoke publicly on issues beyond his research. He expressed concerns about the possible impacts of artificial intelligence, and the questionable wisdom of attracting alien visitors. </p>
<p>Was he presenting new concerns? Or were these ideas already deeply rooted in prior science, or envisaged in fiction? The answer lies in the complex relationship between science and science fiction. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-fiction-helps-us-deal-with-science-fact-a-lesson-from-terminators-killer-robots-50249">Science fiction helps us deal with science fact: a lesson from Terminator's killer robots</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A brief history of fictional science</h2>
<p>There was a time when science fiction writers may have imagined they were exploring the frontiers of the future. When the science caught up with the fiction, and in many cases exceeded it, this relationship turned on its head. Enduring themes of science fiction, which survived the impact of this scientific apocalypse, include interests expressed by Stephen Hawking – putting ourselves at the mercy of machines, communicating with non-human life and phenomena that are so grandly cosmic that they defy normal comprehension: sentient machines, alien visitors and black holes. </p>
<p>Science fiction authors used to make mileage out of technological speculation. From the 1930s through to the 1950s, video telephones, atomic bombs and thinking machines were wonderful things to speculate about, and no one knew for certain what was out there in the rest of the universe.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=793&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213094/original/file-20180404-189804-1mz6l5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=997&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Astounding Science Fiction, December 1950: Impractical SF - Cities in Flight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author Supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.nndb.com/people/710/000023641/">Robert Heinlein</a> talked about <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16690.The_Moon_is_a_Harsh_Mistress">bases on the Moon</a> run by free-wheeling libertarians and <a href="https://www.biography.com/people/isaac-asimov-9190737">Isaac Asimov</a> wrote of future star-spanning, galactic-scale human <a href="http://asimov.wikia.com/wiki/Foundation">empires</a>. Alien visitors were common – whether for good or bad – and ravening beams of destruction had been tearing through the black emptiness of space since the mid-1930s for <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/444944.Triplanetary?from_search=true">E.E. ‘Doc’ Smith</a>. You could even make cities fly.</p>
<h3>Science overtakes science fiction</h3>
<p>In 1957 the Russians launched the first orbital satellite – <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/sputnik/">Sputnik</a> – and perhaps this was the beginning of the end for scientific fantasy. </p>
<p>It is strange to think today that when the meticulous director <a href="https://www.biography.com/people/stanley-kubrick-9369672">Stanley Kubrick</a> was working on <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0062622/">2001: A Space Odyssey</a> – released in mid 1968, and now celebrating its <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/newsroom/press-releases/national-air-and-space-museum-marks-50th-anniversary-2001-space-odyssey">50th birthday</a> – no-one even knew for certain what the surface of the Moon was like. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210969/original/file-20180319-31633-hpjx2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earthrise on the Moon in 2001: A Space Odyssey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://kubricksfilms.tumblr.com/post/22190163266/moon-surface-in-2001-a-space-odyssey-1968">Kubrick's Films</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kubrick had access to in-depth, technical support by NASA and other space technology experts, and this strongly influenced his designs. But even NASA didn’t know whether the lunar landscape was rocky or smooth, or exactly how Earthrise on the moon might appear. </p>
<p>The first pictures of Earth from space had been taken in <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1298.html">1946</a>, but it was not until Christmas Eve 1968 that a high quality colour image of the <a href="http://www.planetary.org/multimedia/space-images/earth/earthrise-over-the-lunar.html">Earth</a> rising over the Moon was taken by the crew of Apollo 8. Despite Kubrick’s access to the best information you can see the differences between his imagery and the real thing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210970/original/file-20180319-31627-1rd63vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Apollo 8 Earthrise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1249.html">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey has elements of realism that are not found in modern science fiction films – the silence of space being perhaps the most striking. What people remember about 2001, however, more than the realism, is HAL – the sentient machine who goes haywire. </p>
<p>2001: A Space Odyssey touched on subjects that were significant to <a href="http://www.hawking.org.uk/">Hawking</a> – artificial intelligence, alien contact, and even wormholes in space-time, or whatever it is that happens when Bowman goes through the stargate. These were still being presented on the basis of well-informed guesswork, however – and it might be argued that the release of this movie, which attempted to portray space travel and technology as realistically as possible, marked a point of crisis for science fiction. </p>
<p>The Apollo missions revealed Earth to be a blue marble, and, as Jean Baudrillard has suggested: when you have seen people go to the Moon and come back again, in a “<a href="http://www.depauw.edu/sfs/backissues/55/baudrillard55art.htm">two‑room apartment with kitchen and bath</a>” the magic and wonder may have evaporated. Astronauts might indeed just be <a href="http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/biography/alan-b-shepard/17449.aspx">“spam in a can…”</a>, as the legendary test-pilot <a href="http://www.chuckyeager.com/">Chuck Yaeger</a> cynically suggested. </p>
<h3>The future now</h3>
<p>After this, science fiction had two choices. Choice one: do realistic science, and get the science right so people couldn’t criticise it (which has even inspired an <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0270467615625130">academic paper</a> on the work of author <a href="http://www.gregbear.com/">Greg Bear</a>). Or choice two: go beyond it. Create science so speculative and conjectural that it could not be categorically denied. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=889&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213092/original/file-20180404-189801-1o9fuzi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1117&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Man in the High Castle: Philip K. Dick’’s alternate universe where the axis powers won WWII.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amazon Studios via IMDB</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The future has become now, as British New-Wave science fiction author <a href="http://www.jgballard.ca/">J.G. Ballard</a> <a href="https://youtu.be/SS6MWpFX_N0?t=684">observed</a>, and our fears about the future are that it will simply be more of the same, and <a href="https://www.tor.com/2013/01/22/dangerous-bends-ahead-slow-down-jg-ballard-and-forty-years-of-the-future/">boring</a>. For his part, Ballard explored the “inner space” of human psychology in extraordinarily ordinary environments and <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1740299/">alternate universes</a>, approaches which enable some writers to evade criticisms based on scientific credibility. </p>
<p>Science fiction has to build a vision of the future that is not just more of the same. As human knowledge, and the application of that knowledge through technology advances, it becomes harder to find scientific subjects that are truly inspiring. </p>
<p>These days, 2001: A Space Odyssey has appeared at number 12 on a list of “<a href="http://www.nme.com/news/film/boring-films-time-2168636">the most boring films ever</a>”.</p>
<h2>Artificial intelligence</h2>
<p>Artificial intelligence at the level of sophistication and consciousness portrayed in science fiction, with the potential to cause the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/oct/19/stephen-hawking-ai-best-or-worst-thing-for-humanity-cambridge">concerns</a> raised by Hawking, is a long way away. But Larry Tesler – former Chief Scientist at Apple – has suggested this will always be the way people think about it because “<a href="http://www.nomodes.com/Larry_Tesler_Consulting/Adages_and_Coinages.html">intelligence is whatever machines haven’t done yet</a>.” </p>
<p>Hawking was not alone in prophesying the end of humanity as the logical endpoint of successfully building a sentient machine. We may think of this concern with what machines may do to us as recent, but in 1863 Samuel Butler encouraged us to <a href="http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-ButFir-t1-g1-t1-g1-t4-body.html">rise up against the machines</a> before we become their servants. He predicted that our increasing reliance upon technology would end with us serving it rather than it serving us, and that the more science and technology progressed, the more dependent we would become on it until it was indispensable. Butler’s proposal was immortalised in science fiction as the inspiration for the “Butlerian Jihad” in Frank Herbert’s seminal 1965 novel <a href="http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page">Dune</a>, with the edict: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=792&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/213102/original/file-20180404-189827-1njyz18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=996&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Analog Dec. 1963 Cover for Frank Herbert’s Dune World.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author Supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The signs of this dependence on machines are around us now, and subtly pervasive – most of us have smart phones, and many other devices too. </p>
<p>Artificial intelligence is frightening for several, good, reasons. Perhaps the least threatening is that sentient machines could do our jobs as well as, or better, than we can – making us redundant. Robots have done this already with many manufacturing jobs. But robots who <em>think</em> could conceivably make human minds as unnecessary as our manual labour. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/science-fact-vs-fiction-in-star-wars-and-other-sci-fi-movies-relax-and-enjoy-the-entertainment-52977">Science fact vs fiction in Star Wars and other sci-fi movies: relax, and enjoy the entertainment</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Current artificial intelligence projects include <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/haroldstark/2017/07/10/prepare-yourselves-robots-will-soon-replace-doctors-in-healthcare/#50f124ea52b5">robotic doctors</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/can-computers-pick-stocks-better-than-humans-can-investment-firms-think-so/article37049458/">stockbrokers</a>, and, of course, <a href="https://www.snopes.com/news/2017/04/21/robots-with-guns/">weapons</a>. </p>
<p>These, however, are not the “holy grail” of artificial intelligence – these examples are better described as “expert systems” that simulate human capabilities, like your <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/50364798/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/t/lg-smart-fridge-spots-spoiled-food-orders-groceries#.Wq9ezJNuZE4">fridge ordering some more milk</a> because it has realised there’s none left. </p>
<p>A more disturbing recent development is the ability of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/cambridge-analytica-facebook-influence-us-election">algorithms and expert systems</a> aided by humans to influence public opinion, and voter intentions. When machines can play poker <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/30/libratus-poker-artificial-intelligence-professional-human-players-competition">better than humans</a>, it demands we consider how else they might out-think us. </p>
<p>What people tend to think of as true artificial intelligence, and the type that appears most often in science fiction, and in the fears of people like Stephen Hawking, is the achievement of “general intelligence” – human level abilities. With the addition of consciousness, this is known as “strong AI”. </p>
<p>Strong AI is the stuff of science fiction nightmares - such as HAL in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARJ8cAGm6JE">2001</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhcU6_wCiMo">Ava</a> in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0470752/">Ex Machina</a>, and apparently more benevolent, but no less disturbing by implication, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798709/">Her</a>, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QRvTv_tpw0">self-actualising</a> virtual companion. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211138/original/file-20180320-31627-9kjndg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The face of indifference: Eva from Ex Machina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0470752/mediaviewer/rm1158938368">Universal Pictures via IMDB</a></span>
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<p>Perhaps our biggest issue with artificial intelligence is the ethics of it - not whether it is ethical to build one, but whether an AI could ever be part of a human ethical environment that relies on <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12142-018-0501-y">communal concepts of moral accountability</a>. </p>
<p>Would an AI have any feelings of responsibility towards humans, regardless of how we feel about them? What is to stop an AI with sufficient access to resources from exterminating all human life because it finds it convenient to do something that will incidentally cause us harm, <a href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/superintelligence-paths-dangers-strategies">as has been suggested by the philosopher Nick Bostrom?</a>. Or would it stick to fixing elections in its favour? </p>
<p>AI researchers suggest that there is <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370214001453">quite a lot that can be done</a> to stop this, not least including a hardware off-switch, and not being silly enough to give an AI autonomous control of anything particularly important.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farewell-ursula-le-guin-the-one-who-walked-away-from-omelas-90632">Farewell Ursula Le Guin – the One who walked away from Omelas</a>
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<p>There are also suggestions that we could program an AI to be ethical in a human sense – and not just Asimov’s <a href="https://www.auburn.edu/%7Evestmon/robotics.html">Three Laws of Robotics</a>, whose flexibility and loop-holes were the basis of the majority of Asimov’s robot stories. </p>
<p>Regardless of how carefully we try to protect ourselves from programming an AI to “do the right thing” by us, there is always the possibility of the AI finding internal exceptions, as <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/goedel-incompleteness/">Gödel’s Theorem</a> implies. <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/determinism-causal/">Determinism</a>, and <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/computability/#SigCom">complexity theories</a> also suggest that to believe we might begin to programme such a sophisticated machine to unequivocally respond to our orders may be doomed to failure. As Stephen Hawking would remind us, failure is not an option.</p>
<h2>Alien real-estate agents</h2>
<p>Hawking’s other words of warning were on the subject of contacting aliens - the logical premise being that any aliens who could both (a) pick up our communications, and (b) pop over for a visit, would be in the possession of powers to transform space-time which are simply inconceivable to us. Our theoretical approaches to faster-than-light travel have some <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/warp/warp.html">serious obstacles to overcome</a>. </p>
<p>Theoretical approaches include the <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0264-9381/11/5/001/pdf">Alcubierre drive</a>, which requires the creation of “exotic” matter at the limits of, or beyond, our very concepts of physics. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211139/original/file-20180320-31608-1g7ty5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Alcubierre Warp-Bubble: if we find a way to do this to space-time, we can get there faster than light.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.sfu.ca/~adebened/funstuff/warpdrive.html">A. DeBenedictis</a></span>
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<p>Again, the question of ethics arises - why would an advanced alien civilisation be interested in, or feel any responsibility towards humans? Cautionary tales abound in science fiction about the possibilities. A particularly gruesome example is The Screwfly Solution – a story by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/James-Tiptree-Jr">James Tiptree Jr.</a> that won a <a href="https://nebulas.sfwa.org/">Nebula Award</a> in 1977. Spoiler alert: in the story, we discover that the horrific genocide committed on humanity may just be the result of some alien real-estate agents tidying up the back yard before putting the “house” on the market.</p>
<p>Science fiction writers and directors are fond of the trope of the alien menace. Director Ridley Scott has imagined the awful consequences of an AI believing an alien species is more deserving of survival than the human one, in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2316204/">Alien Covenant</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211803/original/file-20180324-54903-sjx312.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1070&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Artificial Intelligence teams up with Xenophobic Aliens in Ridley Scott’s Alien Covenant.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2316204/mediaviewer/rm4061407744">Twentieth Century Fox via IMDB</a></span>
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<p>Is there any reason to believe that visiting aliens would have any more noble or less disruptive intentions than colonists reaching the Americas, or Pacific islands? Perhaps they might consider Earth a good place to send convicts, like Botany Bay in Australia. It might not bode well for the indigenous Earth people.</p>
<h2>Black holes</h2>
<p>Stephen Hawking’s most significant contributions to science have been on the nature and characteristics of black holes. These were already imagined in physics and in <a href="http://www.sf-encyclopedia.com/entry/black_holes">science fiction</a>, becoming more topical for science fiction writers towards the end of the 1960s when Hawking’s work was emerging.</p>
<p>Probably the most popular book to deal with the concept of black holes was Hawking’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Time-Stephen-Hawking/dp/0553380168">A Brief History of Time</a>, published in 1988. Black holes had appeared in popular media before, even in a <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078869/">Disney film in 1979</a>, but realism had not been a strong point. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211147/original/file-20180320-31608-1sga4c7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Not-So-Realistic Disney Black Hole.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078869/mediaviewer/rm3735496960">Disney via IMDB</a></span>
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<p>Testament to the increasing knowledge and fascination with these phenomena, faults in the portrayal of the effects of the black hole <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K76z4y8q00s">Gargantua</a> in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816692/">Interstellar</a> – despite being <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26966-interstellars-true-black-hole-too-confusing/">well researched</a> – were considered interesting enough to the general public to be worthy of critical attention in <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2828836/Five-things-Interstellar-got-wrong-points-got-right-Space-experts-reveal-scientifically-accurate-film-actually-is.html">mass-media news reporting</a>. They also inspired a detailed explanation in <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0264-9381/32/6/065001/meta">academic literature</a> of how a black hole might actually appear.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/212152/original/file-20180327-109175-b4arof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Progressively more realistic conceptual images of black holes - a: as portrayed in Interstellar, c: the (more) genuine article.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0264-9381/32/6/065001/meta">Oliver James, Eugénie von Tunzelmann, Paul Franklin and Kip S Thorne</a></span>
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<p>Black holes have also featured in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pta-gf6JaHQ">music</a>, and are almost certainly the only celestial phenomena to have made it to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mbBbFH9fAg">the top of the charts</a>.</p>
<h2>To infinity and beyond</h2>
<p>Did Hawking and other scientists discover things that had a significant influence on science fiction, or were they publicists of things that authors and specialists already knew? </p>
<p>The answer may be a bit of both - certainly the public comprehension of “grand science” has made it possible to create science fiction that is more readily comprehended, and discussed, by the non-expert. This, along with scientific progress, has changed the nature of science fiction - writers and film-makers can no longer produce “lazy” work, but can sidestep by presenting the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebmwYqoUp44">unknowable</a>, as Kubrick did at the end of 2001: A Space Odyssey. </p>
<p>The history of debates about and representations of artificial intelligence, aliens and even black holes pre-dates Hawking, even though he, and his contemporaries, have raised public awareness of these outside of a science fiction audience. </p>
<p>One thing is certain, however: even though science has rendered the premises of much historic science fiction obsolete, the relationship between science and science fiction is just as strong today as it has ever been.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Benjamin Menadue receives funding from the Commonwealth of Australia, in the form of a Research Training Scheme scholarship to support his PhD candidature.</span></em></p>Stephen Hawking raised the public profile of grand science, and speculated about the future of artificial intelligence, as well as contacting aliens. Does science mix easily with science fiction?Christopher Benjamin Menadue, PhD Candidate, Literature and Society, James Cook UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/920262018-03-08T19:26:36Z2018-03-08T19:26:36ZServant or partner? The role of expertise and knowledge in democracy<p><em>Welcome to the first piece in our new occasional series Zoom Out. Here we offer authors a slightly longer essay format to widen their focus, and explore key ideas in science and technology in the broader context of society and humanity.</em> </p>
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<p>Should expert knowledge be limited to providing a servant role in democracies, or elevated to that of a partner? </p>
<p>Most of us respond with ambivalence to this question. We desire expert input into democratic deliberation and decision-making, but not so much as to dominate the discussion. As a result, most of us are tempted by the quest for a Goldilocks principle that establishes “just enough” expertise. </p>
<p>But it can be unclear whether the servant or the partner role offers the best chance of achieving that Goldilocks principle. In our populist times, many are attracted to the servant role because it promises to keep a kind of watertight compartmentalisation between expertise and democracy, and thus safeguard democracy from technocracy. </p>
<p>But I suggest only the partner role truly works to attain a serviceable Goldilocks principle of “just enough” expertise. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/who-are-you-calling-anti-science-how-science-serves-social-and-political-agendas-74755">Who are you calling 'anti-science'? How science serves social and political agendas</a>
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<h2>We are ambivalent about experts</h2>
<p>One reason we all struggle to know how much is “just enough” expertise is that none of us is perfect. We tend to move from loathing to liking experts through the middle ground of admiring technical skill but not social application.</p>
<p>Consider three stories about expertise in democracy that illustrate this ambivalence: the global nuclear debate, the South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission and the fallout from a storm-induced state-wide blackout in South Australia. </p>
<p>The nuclear debate has become so infected by <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21538698">technocratic</a> expert reasoning that even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/03/nuclear-power-paves-the-only-viable-path-forward-on-climate-change">climate scientists</a> are prone to swallowing the feel-good nuclear pill.</p>
<p>Nuclear experts persist in claiming nuclear power could be a cheap and easy solution to climate change – but deny broader social concerns that nuclear power is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/16/new-form-climate-denialism-dont-celebrate-yet-cop-21">poor social return on investment</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the debate continues, because pro-nuclear experts <a href="https://www.crcpress.com/Atoms-Bytes-and-Genes-Public-Resistance-and-Techno-Scientific-Responses/Bauer/p/book/9780415793537">marginalise public concerns</a>, <a href="https://www.wiseinternational.org/nuclear-monitor/840/nuclear-economics-critical-responses-breakthrough-institute-propaganda">cherry-pick their data</a>, dissemble the <a href="https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/">real status</a> of a dying nuclear industry and implicitly undermine the democratic influence of citizens. </p>
<p>Further, that groaning nuclear industry needs to bury its nuclear waste problem or kiss goodbye any hope of politicians or accountants signing off on new reactors.</p>
<p>While the technology and technique of <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-waste-management.aspx">deep geological disposal</a> is admirably skillful and possibly courageous in its ambition, even the best efforts (Canada’s) have been mired in a <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/nuclear-waste-management-in-canada">history of subverting democratic discussion</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-snub-to-nobel-peace-win-is-major-break-from-ambiguous-nukes-policies-of-past-88973">Australia's snub to Nobel Peace win is major break from ambiguous nukes policies of past</a>
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<p>The <a href="http://nuclearrc.sa.gov.au/">South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission</a> of 2016 inherited that same technocratic bent. The Commission’s <a href="https://yoursay.sa.gov.au/pages/nuclear-fuel-cycle-royal-commission-report-release/">final report</a> recommended pursuing nuclear reactors and waste disposal, because the former could provide a lower-carbon method for electricity generation and the latter could be done ethically. </p>
<p>Untouched by the social reality – <a href="https://theconversation.com/accidents-waste-and-weapons-nuclear-power-isnt-worth-the-risks-41522">over-blown claims</a> about the commercial viability of nuclear power and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/inside-the-race-for-canadas-nuclear-waste/article23178848/">unethical practices</a> in waste disposal efforts – there was technocracy at work here.</p>
<p>A few engineering and economic hypotheses were argued to be a firm foundation on which to base public discussion, compared to well-grounded public misgivings about how nuclear actors have historically behaved. </p>
<p>But sometimes we wish the experts would be heard more. After a storm in South Australia on September 28, 2016 led to a state-wide blackout, conservative parliamentarians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/29/south-australia-storms-frydenberg-adelaide-renewable-energy-weatherill">blamed wind power</a> for the blackout and appeared to make up energy policy on the spot. </p>
<p>The blackout was said to be a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/29/jay-weatherill-accuses-barnaby-joyce-of-pushing-anti-windfarm-agenda-over-blackouts">wake-up call</a> to the apparent fact that renewable power is an unreliable curse on energy security. </p>
<p>We now know that those same conservative parliamentarians had <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/13/turnbull-ignored-advice-that-renewable-energy-not-to-blame-for-sa-blackouts">been advised</a> by the Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) that the problem was not wind power. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">many experts dispelling the myth that wind power equals blackouts</a>, the complexity of the <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/AEMO-publishes-final-report-into-the-South-Australian-state-wide-power-outage">final AEMO report</a> was caught up in the <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/coalition-launches-fierce-attack-against-wind-and-solar-after-blackout-93841/">misrepresentation of technical details</a> in a context of political <a href="https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/sa-blackout-storm-of-controversy-erupts-over-aemo-report,9618">buck-passing</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629617301238">Australia’s energy policy</a> apparently suffers from a dearth of expert common sense.</p>
<p>What we have in these stories is nothing new. Plato suggested we leave complex things to experts and Aristotle suggested we leave them to the people. </p>
<p>That tension has carried through to debates about whether <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Zygmunt-Bauman/Blackshaw/p/book/9780415355049">knowledge professions</a> are sources for the common good or for monopoly power. Most of us intuitively grasp that <a href="https://liverpooluniversitypress.co.uk/products/61081">experts might be dangerous because of the same autonomy that conditions their utility</a>. </p>
<h2>The servant role for experts</h2>
<p>If experts can be dangerous, we have good reasons for limiting their role in democracy, and none of those reasons rely on worrying that science cannot “know reality” with absolute certainty.</p>
<p>The first reason is because of the threat of the <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-au/Toward+a+Rational+Society%3A+Student+Protest%2C+Science%2C+and+Politics-p-9780435823818">“scientisation” of politics</a>. Too much expert input can narrow the scope of democratic discussion, because scientific analysis and technical planning take prominence in setting agendas and determining social choices. </p>
<p>By this model, our mechanisms of political decision-making become <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=cW7PmVj7kzQC&pg=PA62&lpg=PA62&dq=scientization+of+politics&source=bl&ots=iNC-jGO4s_&sig=i7e7GMAVA26DoSIn-erA9nJNnV4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj4x77x28TZAhXEUrwKHfXxCvEQ6AEISjAE#v=onepage&q=scientization%20of%20politics&f=false">mere agents of a scientific intelligentsia</a>. </p>
<p>The second reason is that <a href="https://au.sagepub.com/en-gb/oce/liberal-democracy-30/book210474">experts can endanger democratic civility</a> because of information asymmetry. Experts can persuade other experts and non-experts. But non-experts struggle to persuade experts, leaving ordinary citizens susceptible to being the losers in the game of scientising politics. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-science-minister-and-its-unclear-where-science-fits-in-australia-91739">No science minister, and it's unclear where science fits in Australia</a>
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<p>The third reason is that experts disproportionately define what counts as reality for political purposes. Examples include the nature of hazards, the capacity of machines, and the relevant consensus about a technical question upon which political discussion might be grounded. This expert influence over “the real” is a <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/The_Descent_of_Icarus.html?id=-mXuAAAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">source of power in democracies</a>, and all power should be held accountable.</p>
<p>Based on such reasons, you could conclude that experts should be conceived of as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2013/apr/08/lessons-science-advice">delegates</a>. This is because someone needs to watch the watchers, and experts appear to be like a failed institution in need of <a href="https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/saving-science">saving from themselves</a> by being held accountable to democratically determined goals.</p>
<h2>The descent into populism</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, it is just a short hop from there to a more radical and populist position. </p>
<p>The radicalism relies on the insinuation that experts and citizens represent <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/democracy-and-expertise-9780199565245?cc=us&lang=en&">poles of a spectrum from technical to sociocultural reasoning</a>. Experts are painted as limited to an abstract and impersonal kind of reasoning. </p>
<p>In contrast, ordinary citizens are pictured as capable of much more communally sensitive reasoning – something that is better equipped to handle uncertainty, the unanticipated and value judgements. </p>
<p>Experts are thus treated as a kind of class prone to infect any communicative exchange into which they enter, with their supposed <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=3bDMCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT176&lpg=PT176&dq=brian+wynne+ghost+in+the+machine&source=bl&ots=ryywCTJ-2N&sig=wCvBUuqvEbO24kK6Naz4pHgMQrI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjv0_L_98TZAhUMzbwKHU_VB1AQ6AEIOTAH#v=onepage&q=brian%20wynne%20ghost%20in%20the%20machine&f=false">dogmatism</a> making experts like a disease of the body politic. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/distrust-of-experts-happens-when-we-forget-they-are-human-beings-76219">Distrust of experts happens when we forget they are human beings</a>
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<p>This radicalised version of the servant role for experts devolves quickly into populism. If democracy is about popular sovereignty and majority rule, and the “liberal” part of liberal democracy consists of additional provisions for independent institutions (like the judiciary and the free press) and the protection of rights (be they civil, economic or cultural), then populism can be thought of as a challenge to the pluralism of liberal democracy.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15615.html">Populism</a> is anti-elitist, anti-pluralist and appeals to the general will of the people. It is also a <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/populism-a-very-short-introduction-9780190234874?cc=us&lang=en&">thin-centred ideology</a> that inserts itself into more specific policy proposals. </p>
<p>Anti-pluralism refers here to a strong challenge to the legitimacy of independent institutions within democracy. Populists are wary of power drifting away from the people. So, they advise a <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0198296428.001.0001/acprof-9780198296423">watertight compartmentalisation</a> between authority structures and the people, supposedly keeping the people safe from those unrepresentative and out-of-touch institutions. </p>
<p>If you imagine experts as collectively comprising a loosely structured, independent institution within democracies, then a strict servant role advises us to sustain a separation between expertise as an institution and democracy as a forum for citizen deliberation. So, the servant role supports the anti-pluralism of populism.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pathologies-of-populism-82593">The pathologies of populism</a>
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<p>We can see this in an unexpected place. Both populists and the servant conception of experts tend to reduce democratic action to the opening up of issues.</p>
<p>Of course, there is variation in how marginalisation is addressed according to each of these conceptions. Those advocating a servant role for experts do have a point that power asymmetries can generate marginalisation of people and issues. </p>
<p>As some wisely point out, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2016/oct/24/hinkley-c-shows-the-value-of-social-science-in-the-most-toxic-public-debates">vested interests and constrained imaginations</a> can act to close down issues that ought to have their complexities revealed and opened up for broader democratic scrutiny. </p>
<p>But democracy has another side, whereby it closes issues down deliberatively. Australia recently closed down the debate about whether same-sex couples could legally marry, progressively voting “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-numbers-say-and-dont-say-in-the-same-sex-marriage-survey-87096">yes</a>”. The rhetoric of democracy as all about “opening up” glosses over the democratic value of closing some things down. </p>
<p>For every asbestos case where <a href="https://theconversation.com/health-harms-of-asbestos-wont-be-known-for-decades-14845">experts under-estimated risks</a>, we can find cases like Rachel Carson’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/magazine/how-silent-spring-ignited-the-environmental-movement.html"><em>Silent Spring</em></a> where experts revealed risks. </p>
<p>For every <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-30-years-of-the-montreal-protocol-the-ozone-layer-is-gradually-healing-84051">ozone-hole</a> case in which experts missed the risk to public detriment, we can find <a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-more-myths-about-smoking-that-will-not-die-56419">tobacco cases</a> in which experts revealed the risks to no political avail. </p>
<p>For every <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/16/new-form-climate-denialism-dont-celebrate-yet-cop-21">nuclear case</a> in which experts blunder into democratic deliberation and smother citizen input, we can find <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-madhouse-effect-this-is-how-climate-denial-in-australia-and-the-us-compares-81822">climate changes cases</a> in which experts have given a good account of why we should act, but citizens are stuck filtering through politically expedient filibustering. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-trust-big-tobacco-to-promote-public-health-74370">Can we trust Big Tobacco to promote public health?</a>
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<h2>The partner role for experts</h2>
<p>Conceptions of a servant role for experts thus threaten to devolve into populism – if experts are treated as an infectious class, and/or the populist’s anti-pluralism is implicitly replicated, and if a reduction of democracy to just “opening up” also hitches along for the ride. </p>
<p>If we are to treat experts as partners in democracy, we must of course avoid devolving into technocracy. This can be achieved by holding on to the cautions of the servant model. </p>
<p>The risks of the scientisation of politics, and the incivility lurking in the information asymmetry between experts and citizens, must be always born in mind. </p>
<p>But a partner role for experts differs from a servant role for experts in four crucial ways.</p>
<p>One, a partner role for experts explicitly resists the insinuation that experts are a dogmatic class akin to a disease on the communicative and deliberative capacities of the body politic. Failure to resist that insinuation is the path to populism.</p>
<p>Two, experts as partners commits us to thinking through the positive functions that expertise plays in democracy. As some <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/political-theory/democracy-and-trust?format=PB&isbn=9780521646871#Htf8xx1XsbBAis3s.97">political theorists</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/critical-elitism/46FF94FAAF04EC3DF3EF48E2CA312011">social analysts of science</a> have argued, expertise is instrumentally useful in a pluralised, complex world. It informs deliberation and empowers collective will once it has coalesced to some politically actionable degree. </p>
<p>Expertise is also useful as a negative power, capable of acting as a countervailing institution to State, corporate or citizen (majoritarian) attempts at either coercive action or passive inaction. In each case, expertise is to be thought of as a special case of the various functional roles institutions play in liberal democracies.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-and-policymakers-need-to-trust-each-other-but-not-too-much-89240">Climate scientists and policymakers need to trust each other (but not too much)</a>
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<p>Three, partner conceptions of expertise explicitly deny that authority relations trade-off against citizen autonomy. Servant conceptions of the role of expertise, especially as they become radicalised and slip into the anti-pluralism of populist politics, struggle to let go of the trade-off assumption. Saving citizens becomes implicitly identified with marginalising experts. </p>
<p>By contrast, partner roles for expertise adopt a different <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/critical-elitism/46FF94FAAF04EC3DF3EF48E2CA312011">model of authority relations</a>. Experts are justified over time by the contestation and criticism to which they are subjected – and within an overall institutional context of the constant possibility of scrutiny and challenge. </p>
<p>Citizens are not marginalising experts when they contest and criticise their information and advice, any more than experts are marginalising citizens when asking them to accept information or advice in a context of potential scrutiny and challenge. Both are making use of each other within the pluralised institutions of liberal democracy. </p>
<p>Fourth, whereas the servant role for experts is extremely anxious about the way authority relations can impact citizen autonomy (and thus hopes for some kind of watertight compartmentalisation between experts and citizens), the partner model adopts a complacent attitude. </p>
<p>A partner role for experts in democracy tolerates some “leakage” across functional domains. That leakage operates both ways, with experts influencing citizens and citizens influencing experts, leaving room for mutual persuasion in a way that the handmaiden role struggles to do.</p>
<p>The partner role for experts in democracy is thus the only viable candidate to form the basis for a Goldilocks principle of “just enough” expertise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darrin Durant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plato suggested we leave complex things to experts and Aristotle suggested we leave them to the people. That tension has carried through to modern debates about where expertise belongs.Darrin Durant, Lecturer in Science and Technology Studies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.