tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/cuba-2759/articlesCuba – La Conversation2024-03-06T13:35:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231482024-03-06T13:35:23Z2024-03-06T13:35:23ZOppenheimer feared nuclear annihilation – and only a chance pause by a Soviet submariner kept it from happening in 1962<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578712/original/file-20240228-16-283s2r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5496%2C3899&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Onlookers at a Key West, Fla., beach where the Army's Hawk anti-aircraft missiles were positioned during the Cuban missile crisis. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/onlookers-gather-on-george-smathers-beach-in-key-west-news-photo/148266845?adppopup=true">Underwood Archives/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>History has often been shaped by chance and luck. </p>
<p>One of the blockbuster films of the <a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/">past year, “Oppenheimer</a>,” tells the dramatic story of the development of the atomic bomb and the physicist who headed those efforts, J. Robert Oppenheimer. But despite the Manhattan Project’s success depicted in the film, in his latter years, Oppenheimer became increasingly worried about a nuclear holocaust resulting from the proliferation of these weapons.</p>
<p>Over the past 80 years, the threat of such nuclear annihilation was perhaps never greater than during the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis">Cuban missile crisis of 1962</a>. </p>
<p>President John F. Kennedy’s secretary of state, Dean Acheson, said that nuclear war was averted during that crisis by “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article/100/2/598/695452">just plain dumb luck</a>.” As I detail in my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520390966/the-random-factor">The Random Factor</a>,” nowhere was the influence of chance and luck more evident than on Oct. 27, 1962.</p>
<h2>Russian missiles next door</h2>
<p>To set the stage, a cold war of hostilities between the U.S. and the communist Soviet Union began almost immediately following World War II, resulting in <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-russia-nuclear-arms-control">a nuclear arms race</a> between the two during the 1950s and continuing through the 1980s. </p>
<p>As a part of <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-cold-war">the Cold War</a>, the U.S. was extremely concerned about countries falling under the Soviet communist influence and umbrella. That fear was magnified in the case of Cuba.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial photo of a missile base in Cuba." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Aerial spy photos from October 1962 of a medium-range ballistic missile base, with labels detailing various parts of the base during the Cuban missile crisis, San Cristobal, Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-spy-photos-of-a-medium-range-ballistic-missile-base-news-photo/3208373?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Tensions between the U.S. and Cuba had dramatically escalated following the failed 1961 U.S. attempt to overthrow revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and his communist ruling party. Known as the <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-bay-of-pigs">Bay of Pigs invasion</a>, its failure proved to be a major embarrassment for the Kennedy administration and a warning to the Castro regime. </p>
<p>In May 1962, Castro and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis">secretly deploy strategic nuclear missiles</a> in Cuba, with the intention of providing a strong deterrent to any potential U.S. invasion in the future. The Russian missiles and equipment would be disassembled and shipped aboard freighters bound for Havana, then be reassembled on-site.</p>
<p>On Oct. 14, a <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/cuban-missile-crisis">high-flying U.S. U-2 spy plane</a> photographed the construction of a missile launch site in western Cuba. This marked the beginning of the 13 days in October known as the Cuban missile crisis. </p>
<p>After heated deliberations with his cabinet and advisers, Kennedy decided on a <a href="https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/cuban-missile.html">naval blockade</a> surrounding Cuba to prevent further Soviet ships from passing through. In addition, Kennedy demanded removal of all missiles and equipment already in Cuba.</p>
<p>This began a standoff between the U.S. and Russia. Ultimately, the missiles were disassembled and removed from Cuba. In exchange, the U.S. removed its Jupiter ballistic missiles from bases in Turkey and Italy. </p>
<p>But one utterly random – and utterly crucial – aspect of this resolution was not known until years later through the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390500088304">memoirs of, and interviews with, Soviet sailors</a>. </p>
<h2>‘Use the nuclear weapons first’</h2>
<p>During the crisis, the Soviet Union had sent four of its <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/foxtrot-class-old-russian-submarine-notorious-past-208458">Foxtrot-class submarines</a> to the crisis area. Each submarine carried 22 two-ton torpedoes.</p>
<p>Unbeknownst to the U.S., one of those 22 torpedoes aboard each of the four subs was nuclear-tipped with a warhead yielding 15 kilotons, or a force equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb. </p>
<p>In a briefing before the four submarine commanders set out for Cuba, <a href="https://cimsec.org/cuban-missile-crisis-soviet-submarines-attack/">Vice Admiral A.I. Rassokha</a> of the Soviet Northern Fleet gave instructions that if attacked by the American fleet, “I suggest to you commanders that you use the nuclear weapons first, and then you will figure out what to do after that.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map newspaper map from the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis shows the distances from Cuba of various cities on the North American Continent." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This newspaper map from the time of the Cuban missile crisis shows the distances from Cuba of various cities on the North American continent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-newspaper-map-from-the-time-of-the-cuban-missile-news-photo/515016314?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>His advice came alarmingly close to being carried out. </p>
<p>In approaching the blockade area on Oct. 27, Captain Valentin Savitsky’s submarine B-59 had been under prolonged harassment from an array of U.S. ships, aircraft and helicopters attempting to force it to the surface. Needing to recharge the boat’s electrical system, the B-59 did eventually resurface, at which point Savitsky thought he had emerged into a full-scale conflict – surrounded by naval ships and planes, shots being fired across his bow, depth charges dropped and powerful blinding searchlights aimed at the conning tower. Thinking he was under attack, Savitsky gave the order to immediately dive and prepare the nuclear torpedo for firing. </p>
<p>And here was where pure luck intervened. </p>
<h2>Stuck on a ladder</h2>
<p>Staff Captain Vasili Arkhipov and an unnamed sailor aboard B-59 likely <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2022-10-03/soviet-submarines-nuclear-torpedoes-cuban-missile-crisis">prevented World War III from occurring</a>.</p>
<p>As Savitsky tried to descend from the conning tower into the hull of the sub and begin the dive, he was momentarily blocked by a signaling officer who had accidentally gotten stuck on the conning tower ladder. During this split second delay, <a href="https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8342&context=nwc-review">Arkhipov, who was on the conning tower as well</a>, realized that the chaos on the water’s surface was not an attack but rather an attempt to provide a warning. </p>
<p>Arkhipov, who had equal authority as Savitsky, immediately ordered the submarine to “cancel dive, they are signaling.”</p>
<p>World War III was very likely averted as a result of a brief delay in time caused by a sailor who happened to be stuck in the right place at the right time, along with a second-in-command who, when given a few extra seconds, perceptively realized that the boat was not under attack.</p>
<p>Had this not happened, Savitsky would have dived and in all likelihood within five minutes fired his nuclear-tipped torpedo, causing a cataclysmic reaction on the high seas and the world as a whole. </p>
<p>According to Martin Sherwin, co-author of the <a href="https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/kai-bird-and-martin-j-sherwin">Pulitzer Prize-winning biography of Oppenheimer</a> that the recent movie was based on, “The extraordinary (and surely disconcerting) conclusion has to be that on October 27, 1962, a nuclear war was averted not because President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev were doing their best to avoid war (they were), but because Capt. Vasily Arkhipov had been <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/165952/gambling-with-armageddon-by-martin-j-sherwin/">randomly assigned to submarine B-59</a>.”</p>
<p>This is but one of countless examples where global and military history has been dramatically altered by chance and luck. On Oct. 27, 1962, the world was extremely lucky. The question that Robert Oppenheimer would surely ask is, will we be so lucky the next time?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Robert Rank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>During the Cuban missile crisis, World War III was likely averted by what one US official called ‘just plain dumb luck.’Mark Robert Rank, Professor of Social Welfare, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209852024-01-24T17:36:48Z2024-01-24T17:36:48ZEconomic crisis in Cuba: government missteps and tightening US sanctions are to blame<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571144/original/file-20240124-21-r3zh27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/villa-clara-cuba-april-25-2021-1969845346">Domitille P/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cuba is going through its worst economic crisis in 30 years. Since 2020, Cubans have suffered falling wages, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/cuba-health-education-workers-leaving">deteriorating public services</a>, regular power outages, severe shortages and a growing black market. Hundreds of thousands of people have <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters">fled the country</a>. </p>
<p>Some place the blame for this desperate situation at the door of the Cuban government and its mismanagement of the economy. Others point to the damage caused by longstanding US economic sanctions that, to varying degrees, have been in place since 1962.</p>
<p>But which of these is more true? Both have inflicted economic damage. The US has done so deliberately, while the Cuban government’s flawed policies spring from inertia and miscalculation.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing Cuban annual GDP growing until 2019 before dramatically dropping." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571140/original/file-20240124-17-80nggi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban annual GDP growth, 2017–2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas e Información</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
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<h2>The case against the government</h2>
<p>In January 2021, the Cuban government introduced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN28L0AA/">major currency and price reforms</a>. The reforms, which involved devaluing the Cuban peso from one to the US dollar to 24 per dollar, were supposed to begin a process of aligning Cuban prices with international markets. </p>
<p>The hope was that the move would incentivise economic restructuring and innovation to improve efficiency, reduce dependence on imported goods, and eventually stimulate exports.</p>
<p>But things did not turn out as planned. State sector salaries had been more than trebled in December 2020 to protect living standards in anticipation of price rises that would result from the higher cost of imports. However, this salary increase was quickly overtaken as higher costs and consumer spending power pushed up prices and started an inflationary spiral.</p>
<p>The rate of inflation has eased since then. But the official annual rate is still alarmingly high, at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-economy-still-shrinking-minister-says-2023-12-20/">around 30%</a> (more than twice the Latin American regional average). </p>
<p>The Caribbean has generally experienced strong <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CBQ">post-pandemic economic recovery</a>. But Cuba’s national income remains well below its pre-COVID level and, with export earnings still depressed and import dependency unchecked, there is little sign that any restructuring has occurred. </p>
<h2>The effect of US sanctions</h2>
<p>The effect of US economic coercion is less obvious, but no less significant. Cuba has been under a US trade embargo for the past 60 years, but a new <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/travel/trump-cuba-travel-restrictions.html">stream of measures</a> was introduced under the presidency of Donald Trump (2017–21). Trump’s policies cut earnings from services, interrupted fuel supplies, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/because-trump-sanctions-western-union-remittances-come-end-cuba-n1248790">blocked remittances</a> and deterred foreign investment. </p>
<p>Growth was subdued and shortages were already starting to emerge in 2019. But the most devastating action came in January 2021. One of Trump’s final acts in office – occurring just days after the currency reform – was to <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2021/03/part-2-the-unlawful-basis-for-cubas-designation-as-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/">add Cuba</a> to the US list of “state sponsors of terrorism”.</p>
<p>The effect of this has been huge. Interviews that I conducted with representatives of foreign companies doing business with Cuba and with Cuban officials responsible for managing international trade confirm that foreign businesses delayed payments and abruptly cancelled shipments of imports, export contracts and investment plans in the months that followed. </p>
<p>The resultant supply bottlenecks and loss of foreign exchange supercharged inflation, adding to frustration and uncertainty, and preventing recovery.</p>
<p>But perhaps Cuba’s greatest error was to give credence to Joe Biden’s rhetoric in his 2020 US election campaign. Biden spoke about Trump’s “failed Cuba policy” and <a href="https://www.democracyinamericas.org/timelineonbidenharriscubapolicy#:%7E:text=July%20%2D%20November%202020%3A%20As%20election,families.%E2%80%9D%20With%20regards%20to%20human">vowed</a> to reverse his “harmful” policies. If that had happened, a less tight foreign exchange constraint would have allowed some possibility of a positive supply response to the monetary reforms.</p>
<p>Despite his campaign promises, Biden has left Cuban sanctions in place. This has obstructed Cuba’s access to foreign exchange, putting the investment required for restructuring out of reach.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump with his arms outstretched addressing a crowd at a rally." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571156/original/file-20240124-25-eg3y7j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trump introduced a swathe of tough sanctions on Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/louisville-kentucky-march-20-2017-president-605507732">jctabb/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Bad timing</h2>
<p>The pandemic has also contributed to Cuba’s economic turmoil. Cuba responded to COVID by closing its borders and imposing strict lockdowns. This resulted in a sharp economic contraction and a severe depletion of its foreign currency reserves.</p>
<p>The pandemic also had a dramatic impact on the world economy. High <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices?time=2016..latest">fuel</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/">food</a> prices served to worsen Cuba’s foreign exchange shortage, and supplies were further disrupted by logistical bottlenecks and inflated shipping costs.</p>
<p>Cuba had actually performed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-scene-from-cuba-how-its-getting-so-much-right-on-covid-19-155699">exceptionally well</a> in containing the virus throughout <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-response-why-cuba-is-such-an-interesting-case-135749">2020</a>. But a major shock came in 2021 when Cuba grappled with a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases">surge in cases</a> of a new COVID variant.</p>
<p>US sanctions blocked access to sources of COVID support that helped to ease hardships in other nations. As a result, the government had no choice but to cut investment and was unable to prevent the decline in real salaries. </p>
<h2>Looking for a way out of crisis</h2>
<p>Discontent fuelled by COVID restrictions and widespread shortages resulted in <a href="https://www.american.edu/centers/latin-american-latino-studies/cuba-after-the-july-11-protests-leogrande.cfm">protests</a>, revealing dissatisfaction with how Cuba’s leaders had responded to these challenges. Officials are seen as having been slow to fully acknowledge the government’s miscalculations or the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-communists-under-pressure-accelerate-economic-reforms-2021-04-14/">degree of hardship</a> that is being experienced by Cuban households.</p>
<p>As the rate of inflation gradually eases, the government is <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2023/12/27/proyecciones-del-gobierno-para-corregir-distorsiones-y-reimpulsar-la-economia-video/">starting to outline</a> a recovery strategy. With no end to US sanctions in sight, the focus is on reforming the economic system. </p>
<p>The reforms are wide-ranging, aimed at tackling the economic distortions and inertia inherited from decades of strict centralised control. They include a gradual reduction in price subsidies, more targeted welfare, improving the efficiency and responsiveness of state bureaucracy, and opening up to private businesses. </p>
<p>The aim is to stimulate innovation, boost investment and improve public services, which should eventually lift growth and boost living standards. </p>
<p>But the process of restructuring <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/cuba-announces-tough-economic-measures-cubans-brace-hardship-rcna130861">will be difficult</a>. There will be both winners and losers, and resistance to change is inevitable. The reform and recovery process also hinges on rebuilding the shaken confidence of the public and investors, as well as avoiding further external shocks – or deliberate blows from the US.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220985/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Morris has received funding from the British Embassy, Havana, and the Ford Foundation, and is Director of Caribbean Research and Innovation Collaboration for Knowledge Exchange and Transfer (CRICKET) Community Interest Company. </span></em></p>Cuba’s economy – saddled by US sanctions and ill-timed reforms – is in dire straits.Emily Morris, Research Associate, Institute of the Americas, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157422024-01-15T13:55:39Z2024-01-15T13:55:39ZHealthy food is hard to come by in Cape Town’s poorer areas: how community gardens can fix that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563626/original/file-20231205-29-mmm1zv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Community gardens can be a boon for residents.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nattrass/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 1950, as part of the Group Areas Act, South Africa’s apartheid government banished people of colour to outlying areas, away from central business districts. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Cape-Flats">The Cape Flats</a> are one such area, sprawling to the east of central Cape Town.</p>
<p>Today the legacy of apartheid spatial planning endures. The area is home to several densely populated townships (low-income public housing estates) such as Khayelitsha, Gugulethu and Langa. In these communities, there’s limited infrastructure and few transport links to the city’s economic hubs.</p>
<p>One way in which these factors affect residents is that it’s difficult to access nutritious food. Studies reveal that there’s significant <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12132-014-9217-5">inequality in the distribution</a> of supermarkets. Considerable distances hinder access by the urban poor to high-income areas. Additionally, supermarkets in low-income regions tend to offer less <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12132-014-9217-5">healthy food options</a> than those in wealthier neighbourhoods. </p>
<p>This lack of access is reflected in levels of food insecurity across the Cape Flats. A <a href="https://www.foodfortransformation.org/full-article/the-state-of-food-security-in-cape-town-and-st-helena-bay.html">recent study</a> highlighted that 45% of households in the township of Gugulethu were food insecure; the figure for Khayelitsha stood at 36%. This was considerably higher than food insecurity levels in wealthier areas of Cape Town.</p>
<p>Urban community gardens present an opportunity to challenge the status quo. Community-centred approaches to urban agriculture have been successful in various parts of the world, including <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13593-013-0155-8#Sec8">Cuba</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912420300328#sec2">Brazil</a>. Communities in both countries that prioritise local distribution, school feeding schemes and hosting neighbourhood markets have experienced increased food security and improved access to nutritious foods that people not only need but prefer to eat. </p>
<p>Part of my <a href="https://etd.uwc.ac.za/xmlui/handle/11394/9180">PhD</a> explored how urban community gardens could be used to improve access to nutritious food on the Cape Flats. Based <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2427.13224">on my findings</a>, I propose a set of recommendations to encourage the selling of agro-ecologically harvested vegetables and fruits within poorer communities. The aim is to shift from the current system, where produce is primarily sold to commercial outlets, towards a more inclusive and community-centred model that directly benefits the neighbourhoods where the food is grown.</p>
<h2>Gardeners’ stories</h2>
<p>The City of Cape Town, the provincial department of agriculture and civil society groups have supported and promoted urban community gardens in low-income areas as a means to enhance food nutrition and security. Supporting actors help gardeners to develop their skills, as well as providing some of the required equipment. For instance, the <a href="https://www.westerncape.gov.za/general-publication/urban-farming">provincial department of agriculture</a> supports community gardens through the provision of borehole drilling, water tanks and irrigation systems. </p>
<p>For my research I visited 34 urban community gardens on the Cape Flats. One, in Khayelitsha, was established in February 2014 and has 11 members who tend to the day to day functioning of the garden. It stood out to me because it fostered such a strong sense of community and because the gardeners adapted to challenges as they arose.</p>
<p>The soil was initially poor, so the original team of 12 worked to improve its quality, using compost and manure. As the garden evolved, they decided to divide the space, allowing each individual to have their own set of plots. This structural change enhanced their harvest, enabling members to work at their own pace with a higher output. Typically the produce is sold by intermediaries who liaise with hotels and restaurants on the gardeners’ behalf. This was the case for most of the community gardens I studied: most of their harvests were sold to commercial outlets.</p>
<p>This current model is fundamentally flawed. It means that nutritious food produced in and by a community isn’t used to feed that community. Instead it is siphoned out to wealthier neighbourhoods and more commercial outlets. </p>
<p>One reason for this seems to be people’s perceptions of the quality of produce from community gardens. One garden’s co-founder told me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The frustration that we had in the past is that people who understand that the food must be safe and nutritious is people from outside, the white or suburban people, you know, so to them there is a demand for this kind of produce. Which is a different story in our communities – here where they look down on the produce coming from the backyard and gardens and that is where we want to do a lot of education and mobilising to make sure that the produce stays locally.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Collaboration is central</h2>
<p>I agree that such education and mobilisation is key. It dovetails with the major recommendation that emerged from my study: harvested produce from urban community gardens should be distributed through various channels – not just sold to commercial outlets. The food should be directed into local markets, community food kitchens, school feeding programmes, and directly to residents.</p>
<p>This ensures that urban community gardens directly contribute to the well-being and food security of the communities in which they exist.</p>
<p>Implementing this approach requires a collaborative effort from various stakeholders, including local governments, community organisations, and residents. It involves reshaping existing marketing strategies and policies to align with the historical and socio-economic conditions of Cape Town’s low-income areas. It also requires research to understand local consumer perspectives, dietary habits, and challenges in accessing healthy, sustainable food.</p>
<p>This can all be done. In Brazil, one approach to ensuring that agricultural produce from small-scale farmers reaches those who need food is to <a href="https://foodsecurity.ac.za/publications/school-feeding-in-south-africa-what-we-know-what-we-dont-know-what-we-need-to-know-what-we-need-to-do/">link poorer farmers with the school feeding market</a>. The <a href="https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2023/03/24/government-recreates-the-food-acquisition-program-prioritizing-women-and-indigenous-producers">Food Acquisition Programme</a> was initiated in 2003; it involved the government purchasing agricultural produce from impoverished farmers at set prices, storing these commodities, and subsequently distributing them to schools, crèches and NGOs. The programme is still running today. </p>
<h2>Food justice for all</h2>
<p>Through sustainable practices and community engagement it is possible to nurture a future in which food justice becomes a reality on the Cape Flats. <a href="https://foodprint.org/issues/food-justice/">Food justice</a> is the belief that everyone should have equal access to nutritious, affordable and culturally appropriate food. It emphasises addressing social, economic and environmental factors that contribute to disparities in food access and promoting fairness in the food system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tinashe P. Kanosvamhira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Community-centred approaches to urban agriculture have been successful in various parts of the world.Tinashe P. Kanosvamhira, Researcher, African Centre for Cities, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193602023-12-15T13:22:30Z2023-12-15T13:22:30ZA US ambassador working for Cuba? Charges against former diplomat Victor Manuel Rocha spotlight Havana’s importance in the world of spying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564965/original/file-20231211-19-9ppems.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C8%2C2830%2C2074&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Justice Department image showing Victor Manuel Rocha during a meeting with an FBI undercover employee. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FormerAmbassadorArrested/b4d90c09c592424a9f30e01c3c7a423c/photo">U.S. Department of Justice via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Department of Justice announced on Dec. 4, 2023, that Victor Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. government employee, had been arrested and faced federal charges for secretly acting for decades as <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">an agent of the Cuban government</a>. Rocha joined the State Department in 1981 and served for over 20 years, rising to the level of ambassador. After leaving the State Department, he served from 2006-2012 as an <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/manuel-rocha-charged-as-intelligence-mole-for-cuba-served-as-career-us-diplomat-in-latin-america/4919137/">adviser to the U.S. Southern Command</a>, a joint U.S. military command that handles operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.</em></p>
<p><em>Harvard Kennedy School intelligence and national security scholar <a href="https://calderwalton.com/">Calder Walton</a>, author of “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West</a>,” provides perspective on what <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland described</a> as “one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations of the United States government by a foreign agent.”</em></p>
<h2>How common is it for spies to embed in foreign governments?</h2>
<p>Every state seeks to place spies in this way. That’s the business of human intelligence: providing insights into a foreign government’s secret intentions and capabilities. </p>
<p>What makes Rocha’s case unusual is the length of his alleged espionage on behalf of Cuba: four decades. It’s important to emphasize the word alleged here – the case is underway, and Rocha has not yet offered a defense, let alone been convicted. </p>
<p>If proved, however, Rocha’s espionage would place him among the longest-serving spies in modern times. Allowing him to operate as a spy in the senior echelons of the U.S. government for so long would represent a staggering U.S. security failure.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Victor Manuel Rocha’s arrest is the culmination of a multiyear security investigation.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What can a spy in this kind of position do?</h2>
<p>Typically, an embedded spy would be tasked by his or her recruiting intelligence service to take actions like stealing briefing papers, secret memorandums and other materials that show what decision-makers are thinking. Such work quickly resembles movie scenes – photographing secret documents, swapping information in public places or depositing it under lampposts and bridges. </p>
<p>Having an agent reach ambassador level would be a prize for any foreign intelligence service. Rocha held senior diplomatic postings in South America, including Bolivia, Argentina, Honduras, Mexico and the Dominican Republic. This would have given him, and thus his Cuban handlers, access to valuable intelligence about U.S. policy toward South America — and anything else that crossed his desk. </p>
<p>An embedded spy can also act as an “agent of influence” who works secretly to shape policies of the target government from within. This will be something to look for as the federal government discloses more information to support its charges against Rocha. </p>
<p>Presumably the U.S. intelligence community either already has carried out a damange assessment, or is urgently now conducting one, reviewing what secrets Rocha had access to during his diplomatic service – and whether, as ambassador to Bolivia, he may have shaped U.S. policy at the behest of Cuban intelligence.</p>
<h2>Has Cuban intelligence partnered with Russia, in the past or now?</h2>
<p>Cuban intelligence worked closely with the Soviets during the Cold War. After Fidel Castro took power in Cuba in 1959, Soviet intelligence maintained close personal liaisons with him. Cuba’s intelligence service, the DGI, later known as the DI, received <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">early training and support from the KGB</a>, Russia’s former secret police and intelligence agency.</p>
<p>From the 1960s through the 1980s, Cuban intelligence operatives acted as valuable proxies for the KGB in Latin America and various African countries, particularly Angola and Mozambique. But they didn’t just follow Moscow’s direction. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/faculty/brian-latell/">Brian Latell</a>, a former U.S. intelligence expert on Latin America, has shown, Castro’s intelligence service was often <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781137000019/castrossecrets">far more aggressive</a> than the Soviet Union in supporting communist revolutionary movements in developing countries. Indeed, at times, the KGB had to try to <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">rein in Cuban “adventurism</a>.” </p>
<p>One of Cuba’s greatest known espionage feats was recruiting and running a high-flying officer at the U.S. <a href="https://www.dia.mil/">Defense Intelligence Agency</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/True_Believer.html?id=cpksAAAAYAAJ">Ana Montes</a>, who spied for Cuba for 17 years before she was detected and convicted. To the best of my knowledge, there is no publicly avilable U.S. damage assessment of her espionage, but one senior CIA officer told me it was “breathtaking.”</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence recruited Montes while she was a university student and encouraged her to join the Defense Intelligence Agency. There, using a short-wave radio to pass coded messages and encrypted files to handlers, Montes betrayed a massive haul of U.S. secrets, including identities of U.S. intelligence officers and descriptions of U.S. eavesdropping facilities directed against Cuba. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Ana Montes spied for Cuba at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency for 17 years. She returned to her native Puerto Rico in 2023 after serving 20 years in prison.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Cuban and Russian intelligence agencies maintained their ties after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union collapsed. That relationship has only strengthened since Vladimir Putin, an old KGB hand, took power in the Kremlin in 1999. </p>
<p>Putin’s government reopened a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/russia-reopening-spy-base-cuba-us-relations-sour">massive old Soviet signals intelligence facility in Cuba</a>, <a href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp80t01782r000100710001-8">near Havana</a>. This facility had been the Soviet Union’s largest foreign signals intelligence station in the world, with aerials and antennae pointed at Florida shores just 100 miles away. </p>
<p>Soviet records reveal that Moscow <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">obtained valuable information from U.S. military bases in Florida</a>. Russia may well still be trying to try to eavesdrop on U.S. targets today from Cuba, although the U.S. government is doubtless alert to such efforts and is likely undertaking countermeasures.</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence today is also collaborating with China, which reportedly plans to open <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-to-host-secret-chinese-spy-base-focusing-on-u-s-b2fed0e0">its own eavesdropping station in Cuba</a>. Beijing has significant influence over Cuba as its largest creditor and, following in Soviet footsteps, views the island as a valuable intelligence collection base and a “bridgehead” — the KGB’s old code name for Cuba — for influence in Latin America.</p>
<h2>If Rocha is proved guilty, how would he rank historically among other spies?</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen what damage Rocha may have done while allegedly working as a Cuban spy. His tenure in the U.S. government, however, would place him right up there with the most successful, and thus damaging, spies in modern history. </p>
<p>The longest-running Soviet foreign intelligence agent in Britain, Melita Norwood, <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">spied for the KGB for four decades</a>. When she was exposed in 1999, the unrepentant 87-year-old great-grandmother was quickly dubbed “the great granny spy” in the British tabloid press. </p>
<p>In the United States, the highest Soviet penetration of the executive branch was probably <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Lauchlin Currie</a>, who was President Franklin Roosevelt’s White House assistant during World War II. Records obtained after the Soviet Union’s collapse reveal that <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Currie acted as a Soviet agent</a>. </p>
<p>The greatest damage to U.S. national security, however, was done in the 1980s and 1990s by <a href="https://www.usni.org/press/books/circle-treason">Aldrich Ames at the CIA</a> and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Spy-in-Plain-Sight/Lis-Wiehl/9781639364572">Robert Hanssen at the FBI</a>. Each man betrayed a wealth of secrets, including U.S. intelligence operations. The information that Ames stole for the Soviets led to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/06/12/naming-those-betrayed-by-ames/5ed7accf-bcdd-4b8a-9de5-75a2b422044a/">arrest and execution</a> of Soviet agents working for U.S. intelligence behind the Iron Curtain. </p>
<p>In due course, we will find out whether Rocha occupies a place of similar ignominy in U.S. history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calder Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuba gets less attention as an espionage threat than Russia or China, but is a potent player in the spy world. Its intelligence service has already penetrated the US government at least once.Calder Walton, Assistant Director, Applied History Project and Intelligence Project, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182392023-11-26T19:20:42Z2023-11-26T19:20:42ZGreen growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?<p>Nearly all the world’s governments and vast numbers of its people are convinced that addressing human-induced climate change is essential if healthy societies are to survive. The two solutions most often proposed go by various names but are widely known as “<a href="https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/whatisgreengrowthandhowcanithelpdeliversustainabledevelopment.htm#:%7E:text=Green%20growth%20means%20fostering%20economic,which%20our%20well%2Dbeing%20relies.">green growth</a>” and “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04412-x">degrowth</a>”. Can these ideas be reconciled? What do both have to say about the climate challenge?</p>
<p>The crude version of green growth – the solution that dominates the discourse of developed countries – is essentially that technology will save us if we get the incentives right. We can stick with the idea that economic growth is the central determinant of human flourishing, we just need technological fixes for unsustainable industrial practices. These will emerge if we get prices pointing in a green direction, which is first and foremost about carbon taxes.</p>
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<p>Yet this sort of thinking still seems head-in-the-sand. Yes, the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/what-is-the-difference-between-absolute-emissions-and-emissions-intensity/">emissions intensity</a> of per-capita GDP growth <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-intensity?tab=chart&country=USA%7ECHN%7EIND%7EIDN%7EDEU">is generally falling</a>, in part because added economic value increasingly comes from ideas not widgets.</p>
<p><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/sweden">Sweden, for example</a>, has increased its GDP by 76% but its domestic energy use by only 2.5% since 1995. But we are still <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01702-w#:%7E:text=The%20planet%20is%20on%20track,cross%20the%20line%20much%20sooner.">missing carbon reduction deadlines</a> by wide margins and struggling to enact meaningful carbon pricing.</p>
<h2>Eco-socialism and political suicide: the caricature of degrowth</h2>
<p>The crude version of degrowth is that to ensure sustainability, GDP must contract. Endless growth got us to where we are, and endless growth will kill us. We need to throw out the status quo and make our revolutionary way to eco-socialism. Rich countries need to stop where they are and transfer wealth to poor countries so we can equitably share what we have.</p>
<p>This sort of thinking is <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/degrowth-we-cant-let-it-happen-here">easily caricatured</a> as political suicide and more likely to undermine enthusiasm for sustainability than achieve it.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">Is nuclear the answer to Australia's climate crisis?</a>
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<p>Yet these caricatures can be easily dismissed. While it’s hard to pin down exactly what each camp stands for, since they represent amorphous agglomerations of ideas in a fast-moving discourse, it’s clear many advocates of both green growth and degrowth are sophisticated in their views and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800919319615">share many points of agreement</a>. </p>
<h2>Where green growth and degrowth agree</h2>
<p>The first is that contemporary industry is too environmentally intensive – it crosses multiple planetary boundaries in its carbon emissions, ocean acidification, nitrogen, phosphorus loading and so on.</p>
<p>Second, to avoid ecological collapse, sectors such as fossil fuels, fast fashion, industrial meat farming, air travel, plastics and many more need to draw down their economic activity.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, other sectors need to grow. These include clean energy, obviously, but also biodegradable materials, green steel and pesticide-free agriculture, on and on. Effecting this structural transition will require <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/green-new-deal-and-carbon-taxes-can-work-together/">both carbon taxes and more muscular</a> industrial policy of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/climate/green-new-deal-questions-answers.html">Green New Deal</a> sort.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-hard-basket-why-climate-change-is-defeating-our-political-system-214382">Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system</a>
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<p>Third, environmental damage is both licensed and exacerbated by a narrow policy focus on <a href="https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm">gross domestic product</a> (GDP). We need to shift priorities away from GDP and towards frameworks and budgets – such as those used in <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/information-and-services/nz-economy/higher-living-standards/our-living-standards-framework">New Zealand</a>, the <a href="https://www.act.gov.au/wellbeing">Australian Capital Territory</a> and other places – that do a far better job than GDP does of measuring whether we are using our resources effectively to advance human wellbeing.</p>
<p>And many of these wellbeing goals can be achieved using a fraction of the wealth of advanced nations. For example, Cuba, with about <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CU">an eighth of the GDP</a> per capita, has similar <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/americans-can-now-expect-live-three-years-less-cubans-1739507">life expectancy</a> and <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/literacy-rate-by-country">literacy rates</a> to the United States.</p>
<h2>New ways to measure and increase human wellbeing</h2>
<p>A complementary approach is to <a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/research/research-projects/wealth-economy-social-and-natural-capital/">measure comprehensive wealth</a> – financial, natural, human, and social – rather than income. If economic activity substitutes a relatively small amount of financial capital concentrated in few hands for a huge amount of natural capital, then it isn’t sustainable nor does it increase total wealth.</p>
<p>Finally, we need to measure productivity – the extent to which we can do more with less. Economic growth models stress that only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model">long-run improvements in productivity</a> lead to sustained increases in wealth. Simply increasing investment, of the kind associated with extractive industries, provides only a transitory boost.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>Another virtue of productivity growth is <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/epp/irle/irle-blog-pages/schumpeters-theory-of-creative-destruction.html">creative destruction</a>: when innovation clears out outmoded industries, ideas, and ways of working. Today creative destruction is held back by the power of vested interests, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-fossil-fuel-lobbying-and-its-growing-influence-in-australian-politics-188515">notably in fossil fuels</a>, to lobby governments to slow the industrial transition required to address climate change.</p>
<p>Quality of life frameworks, wealth accounts, and productivity growth all have problems and present measurement difficulties, but they point us in the right direction. They help us to understand GDP as a means, not an end. Twentieth century statistics cannot measure 21st century progress.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Green growth and degrowth advocates also agree that getting people to practise less carbon intensive lifestyles, especially in rich countries, is politically and culturally difficult. Witness the recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/02/spain-puts-limits-on-air-conditioning-and-heating-to-save-energy">outcry in Spain</a> when the government legislated that public and commercial buildings could not be cooled below 27 or heated above 19 degrees respectively.</p>
<p>That’s why sweeteners are fundamental to the political logic of Green New Deals: for example, the proceeds of carbon taxes can be returned to households as compensation.</p>
<h2>Where green growth and degrowth disagree</h2>
<p>What green growth and degrowth advocates disagree most about is how deeply we need to alter our political economy to survive climate change. </p>
<p>Green growth is broadly optimistic about the capacity of liberal democracy’s incremental style to get the green transition done in time. It has faith in markets, and even as it recognises the need for green industrial policy it is cautious about government’s ability to micromanage it.</p>
<p>Degrowth believes something more radical is in order, with equality at its core. We need to understand what is “sufficient” for people to live good lives, and then redistribute from people who have far more than they need to people who have much less.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>This approach would include the provision of energy-efficient social housing, and international aid for green development. Government must adopt the climate transition as its mission in the manner of winning a total war. It must get involved in the economy and society in a big way, including by regulating things like private jets and low emission traffic zones.</p>
<p>The problem for degrowthers is that getting such a radical agenda off the ground requires first and foremost a change in public values. But the movement’s focus on international political economy – its tendency to target its efforts at bureaucrats and quasi-governmental agencies like the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) – undermines cultural change by feeding populist narratives about technocratic overreach.</p>
<p>Spain’s experience illustrates that citizens haven’t internalised the sorts of lifestyle changes degrowth believes are required. Politically hopeless slogans like “degrowth” that don’t even capture the essence of the movement need to be tossed out, and much more attention needs to be given to marketing the experience of living green in sustainable societies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218239/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Fabian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One set of ideas runs counter to the mainstream consensus that technology will save us from climate change. Can degrowth ever win enough converts to persuade humanity to change course?Mark Fabian, Assistant professor of public policy, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004112023-10-05T12:34:13Z2023-10-05T12:34:13ZThe splendid life of Jimmy Carter – 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511714/original/file-20230222-26-wdgm71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C54%2C2027%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cuban President Fidel Castro watches former U.S. President Jimmy Carter throw a baseball on May 14, 2002, in Havana, Cuba.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cuban-president-fidel-castro-watches-former-us-president-news-photo/73894798?phrase=jimmy%20carter%20fidel%20castro&adppopup=true">Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <em>Mark 8:34-38</em> a question is asked: “For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?”</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter never lost his soul. </p>
<p>A person who served others, Jimmy Carter did more to advance the cause of human rights than any U.S. president in American history. That tireless commitment “to advance democracy and human rights” was noted by the Nobel Committee when it honored Carter with its <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2002/summary/">Peace Prize</a> in 2002.</p>
<p>From establishing the nonprofit <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/">Carter Center</a> to working for <a href="https://www.habitat.org/volunteer/build-events/carter-work-project">Habitat for Humanity</a>, Carter never lost his moral compass in his public policies. </p>
<p>Over the years, The Conversation U.S. has published numerous stories exploring the legacy of the nation’s 39th president – and his blessed life after leaving the world of American politics. Here are selections from those articles. </p>
<h2>1. A preacher at heart</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.asbury.edu/about/directory/david-swartz/">As a scholar</a> of American religious history, Asbury University Professor David Swartz believes that a speech Carter gave on July 15, 1979, was the most theologically profound speech by an American president since <a href="https://www.nps.gov/linc/learn/historyculture/lincoln-second-inaugural.htm">Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address</a>, on March 4, 1865.</p>
<p>Carter’s nationally televised sermon was watched by 65 million Americans as he “intoned an evangelical-sounding lament about a crisis of the American spirit,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Swartz wrote</a>. </p>
<p>“All the legislation in the world,” Carter proclaimed during the speech, “can’t fix what’s wrong with America.”</p>
<p>What was wrong, Carter believed, was self-indulgence and consumption. </p>
<p>“Human identity is no longer defined by what one does but by what one owns,” Carter preached. But “owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Revisiting Jimmy Carter's truth-telling sermon to Americans</a>
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<h2>2. Tough-minded policies on human rights</h2>
<p>Though Carter was considered a weak leader after <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/11/04/the-iranian-hostage-crisis-and-its-effect-on-american-politics/">Iranian religious militants</a> seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, his overseas policies were far more effective than critics have claimed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">wrote</a> Gonzaga University historian <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/college-of-arts-sciences/faculty-listing/detail/donnelly">Robert C. Donnelly</a>, especially when it came to the former Soviet Union.</p>
<p>Shortly after the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/">Soviet invasion of Afghanistan</a> in 1979, for instance, Carter imposed an embargo on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/08/16/639149657/farmers-caught-up-in-u-s-trade-war-s-remember-80-s-grain-embargo">U.S. grain sales</a> that targeted the Soviet Union’s dependence on imported wheat and corn to feed its population. </p>
<p>To further punish the Soviets, Carter persuaded the U.S. Olympic Committee to refrain from competing in the upcoming Moscow Olympics while the Soviets repressed their own people and occupied Afghanistan.</p>
<p>Among Carter’s critics, none was harsher than Ronald Reagan. But in 1986, after beating Carter for the White House, even he had to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/06/us/reagan-acknowledges-carter-s-military-buildup.html">acknowledge Carter’s foresight</a> in modernizing the nation’s military forces, a measure that further increased economic and diplomatic pressure on the Soviets. </p>
<p>“Reagan admitted that he felt very bad for misstating Carter’s policies and record on defense,” Donnelly wrote. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">Jimmy Carter's lasting Cold War legacy: Human rights focus helped dismantle the Soviet Union</a>
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<h2>3. Carter’s unexpected liberal foe</h2>
<p>Reagan’s win over Carter in the 1980 U.S. presidential race was due in part to Carter’s bitter race during the Democratic primary against an heir to one of America’s great political families – Ted Kennedy. </p>
<p>Kennedy’s decision to run against Carter was “something of a shock to Carter,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">wrote</a> <a href="https://www.bu.edu/cgs/profile/thomas-whalen/">Thomas J. Whalen</a>, a Boston University associate professor of social science. </p>
<p>In 1979, Kennedy had pledged to support Carter’s reelection bid but later succumbed to pressure in liberal Democratic circles to launch his own presidential bid and fulfill his family’s destiny. </p>
<p>In addition, Whalen wrote, Kennedy “harbored deep reservations about Carter’s leadership, especially in the wake of a faltering domestic economy, high inflation and the seizure of the American Embassy in Iran by radical Muslim students.”</p>
<p>In response, Carter vowed to “whip (Kennedy’s) ass.” </p>
<p>And did. </p>
<p>But that win over Kennedy came at a high cost. </p>
<p>“Having expended so much political and financial capital fending off Kennedy’s challenge,” Whalen wrote, “he was easy pickings for Reagan in that fall’s general election.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">When the Lion of the Senate roared like a mouse</a>
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<h2>4. A quiet fight against a deadly disease</h2>
<p>Guinea worm is a painful parasitic disease that is contracted when people consume water from stagnant sources contaminated with the worm’s larvae. </p>
<p>Clemson University Professor Kimberly Paul has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yb246-8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">worked as a parasitologist</a> for over two decades. </p>
<p>"I know the suffering that parasitic diseases like Guinea worm infections inflict on humanity, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and poor communities,” she <a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">wrote</a>.</p>
<p>In 1986, it infected an estimated 3.5 million people per year in 21 countries in Africa and Asia. </p>
<p>Since then, that number has been reduced by more than 99.99% to 13 provisional cases in 2022, in large part because of Carter and his efforts to eradicate the disease. Those efforts included teaching people to filter all drinking water.</p>
<p>Over time, Carter’s efforts proved tremendously successful. On Jan. 24, 2023, The Carter Center, the nonprofit founded by the former U.S. president, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2023/2022-guinea-worm-worldwide-cases-announcement.html">announced</a> that “Guinea worm is poised to become the second human disease in history to be eradicated.”</p>
<p>The first was smallpox. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">Guinea worm: A nasty parasite is nearly eradicated, but the push for zero cases will require patience</a>
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<h2>5. Carter’s brave step in Cuba</h2>
<p>In 2002, long after his departure from the White House in 1981, Carter became the the first U.S. president to visit Cuba since the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/post-revolution-cuba/">1959 Cuban Revolution</a>. Carter had accepted the invitation of then President Fidel Castro.</p>
<p><a href="https://chrd.gsu.edu/profile/jennifer-mccoy-2-4/">Jennifer Lynn McCoy</a>, now at Georgia State University, was director of <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/americas/index.html">The Carter Center’s Americas Program</a> at the time and accompanied Carter on that trip, on which he <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc517.html">gave a speech in Spanish</a> that called on Castro to lift restrictions on free speech and assembly, among other constitutional reforms.</p>
<p>Castro was unmoved by the speech but instead invited Carter <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cuba-and-the-united-states-play-beisbol-diplomacy/">to watch a Cuban all-star baseball game</a>. </p>
<p>At the game, McCoy <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">wrote</a>, “Castro asked Carter for a favor” – to walk to the pitcher’s mound without his security detail to show how much confidence he had in the Cuban people.</p>
<p>Over the objections of his Secret Service agents, Carter obliged and walked to the mound with Castro and threw out the first pitch.</p>
<p>Carter’s move was a symbol of what normal relations could look like between the two nations – and of Carter’s unwavering faith. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">Jimmy Carter in Cuba</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Beloved in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, Jimmy Carter became the 39th US president and used his office to make human rights a priority throughout the world.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105072023-08-06T08:47:35Z2023-08-06T08:47:35ZAn expanded BRICS could reset world politics but picking new members isn’t straightforward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540476/original/file-20230801-18384-y0dg77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C127%2C2813%2C1757&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Government Communication and Information System</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eager to <a href="https://lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-lecture-by-fiona-hill/">escape perceived western domination</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/more-countries-want-to-join-brics-says-south-africa-/7190526.html#:%7E:text=Argentina%2C%20Iran%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%20and,nations%20have%20in%20the%20organization.">several countries</a> – mostly in the global south – are looking to join the <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/#">Brics</a> bloc. The five-country bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also looking to grow its global partnerships. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">began in 2001</a> as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.</p>
<p>Crucial to this was these countries’ decision to form their own club <a href="http://infobrics.org/page/history-of-brics/">in 2009</a>, instead of joining an expanded G7 as envisioned by former Goldman Sachs CEO <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/archive/building-better.html">Jim O’Neill</a>, who coined the term “Bric”. <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-97397-1">Internal cohesion</a> on key issues has emerged and continues to be refined, despite challenges.</p>
<p>South Africa joined the group after a Chinese-initiated invitation <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">in 2010</a>; a boost for then president Jacob Zuma’s administration, which was eager to pivot further to the east. The bloc also gained by having a key African player and regional leader. </p>
<p>Ever since, the grouping has taken on a more pointedly political tone, particularly on the need to <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/10th-brics-summit-johannesburg-declaration-27-jul-2018-0000#:%7E:text=We%20recommit%20our%20support%20for,democracy%20and%20the%20rule%20of">reform global institutions</a>, in addition to its original economic raison d’etre.</p>
<p>The possibility of its enlargement has dominated headlines in the run up to its 15th summit in Johannesburg <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/about-the-summit/">on 22-24 August</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries</a>
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<p>We are political scientists whose <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-political-economy-of-intra-brics-cooperation-siphamandla-zondi/1140951138">research interests</a> include <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2">changes</a> to the global order and emerging alternative centres of power. In our view, it won’t be easy to expand the bloc. That’s because the group is still focused on harmonising its vision, and the potential new members do not readily make the cut. </p>
<p>Some may even bring destabilising dynamics for the current composition of the formation. This matters because it tells us that the envisioned change in the global order is likely to be much slower. Simply put, while some states are opposed to western <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html">hegemony</a>, they do not yet agree among themselves on what the new alternative should be. </p>
<h2>Evolution of BRICS</h2>
<p>BRICS’ overtly political character <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2_1">partially draws</a> on a long history of non-alignment as far back as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Bandung-Conference">Bandung Conference of 1955</a>. It was attended mostly by recently decolonised states and independence movements intent on asserting themselves against Cold War superpowers – the Soviet Union and the United States. </p>
<p>BRICS has come to be viewed as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13540661231183352">challenging the counter hegemony</a> of the US and its allies, seen as meddling in the internal affairs of other states. </p>
<p>Reuters estimates that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-40-nations-interested-joining-brics-south-africa-2023-07-20/#:%7E:text=South%20African%20officials%20want%20BRICS,Kazakhstan%20have%20all%20expressed%20interest.">more than 40 states</a> are aspiring to join BRICS. South African diplomat Anil Sooklal says 13 had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/05/28/how-brics-became-a-real-club-and-why-others-want-in/5caecc7e-fdb7-11ed-9eb0-6c94dcb16fcf_story.html">formally applied</a> by May 2023.</p>
<p>Many, though not all, of the aspiring joiners have this overtly political motivation of countering US hegemony. The other important incentive is access to funds from the BRICS’ <a href="https://www.ndb.int/projects/">New Development Bank</a>. This is especially pronounced in the post-COVID climate in which many economies are <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136727#:%7E:text=Prospects%20for%20a%20robust%20global,Prospects%20report%2C%20released%20on%20Tuesday.">yet to fully recover</a>. Of course the two can overlap, as in the case of Iran.</p>
<p>The notable applicants have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-says-it-has-applied-join-brics-club-russian-ria-agency-2023-07-25/">included</a> Saudi Arabia, Belarus, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-says-has-chinas-support-join-brics-group-2022-07-07/">Argentina</a>, <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">Algeria, Iran</a>, Mexico, and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-obvious-nation-for-expanded-brics-says-leading-economist/2896122">Turkey</a>. </p>
<h2>Expanded BRICS</h2>
<p>A strategically expanded BRICS would be seismic for the world order, principally in economic terms. </p>
<p>Key among the club’s reported priorities is <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/">reduction of reliance</a> on the US dollar (“de-dollarisation” of the global economy). One of the hurdles to this is the lack of buy-in by much of the world. Though some states may disagree with the dollar’s dominance, they still see it as the most reliable.</p>
<p>Given the extent of globalisation, it’s unlikely that there will be attempts to chip away at the west’s access to strategic minerals and trade routes as happened during the <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/speech-president-nasser-alexandria-july-26-1956-extract">Suez Crisis of 1956</a>, at the height of the Cold War.</p>
<p>Instead, the new joiners would likely use their new BRICS membership to better bargain with their western partners, having more options on hand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia wants to join the BRICS group of nations: an expert unpacks the pros and cons</a>
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<p>Herein lies the challenge (and the paradox) with BRICS expansion. On one hand, the grouping is not yet offering anything concrete to justify such drastic measures as de-dollarisation. On the other, the current five members also need to be selective about who they admit.</p>
<p>Among the considerations must surely be the track record of the applicants as well as their closeness to the west. The experience of having had a right-wing leader such as former Brazilian president <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-is-devastating-indigenous-lands-with-the-world-distracted-138478">Jair Bolsonaro</a> in its midst must have been a lesson about the need to be circumspect when admitting new members.</p>
<h2>Weighing the likely contenders</h2>
<p>In this regard, aspirants such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico seem the least likely to make the cut in the short term. That’s despite the Saudis’ oil wealth and Mexico’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/obrador-mexico-first-leftist-president-in-decades/4463520.html">leftist-progressive</a> leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Although they might be currently experiencing rocky relations with Washington, they have proven to be capable of rapprochement following previous disagreements with the US, with which they seem inextricably intertwined. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia has a long-term military relationship with the US, while Mexico is the US’s <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0711#:%7E:text=and%20border%20region-,Mexico%20seeks%20to%20solidify%20rank%20as%20top,partner%2C%20push%20further%20past%20China&text=Mexico%20became%20the%20top%20U.S.,four%20months%20of%20this%20year.">number-one trading partner</a>. </p>
<p>Of equal importance in the evaluation of potential new members is the relationship the aspirants have with the existing BRICS members. This is because another crucial lesson has been the tiff between two of its largest members, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20578911221108800?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.1">China and India</a>, over their disputed border. As a result of the uneasy relationship between two of its members, the bloc has become alert to the importance of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13010">direct bilateral relations and dispute resolution</a> among its constituent leaders.</p>
<p>Among the applicants, Saudi Arabia, which has had a fractious relationship with Moscow in the past, seems to face an uphill climb. It also has difficult relations with Iran, another applicant, despite their recent rapprochement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-role-as-host-of-the-brics-summit-is-fraught-with-dangers-a-guide-to-who-is-in-the-group-and-why-it-exists-206898">South Africa's role as host of the BRICS summit is fraught with dangers. A guide to who is in the group, and why it exists</a>
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<p>The country which seems the most suitable to join BRICS for ideological reasons, and will expand the bloc’s footing in the Caribbean, is Cuba. It enjoys strong ties with the existing members. It also has solid “counter-hegemonic” credentials, having been the bête noire of the US for more than 60 years. </p>
<p>Cuba is also a leader in the Latin American left and enjoys strong ties with many states in Central and South America (particularly with Guatemala, <a href="https://latinarepublic.com/2022/07/20/honduras-and-cuba-sign-a-memorandum-to-strengthen-bilateral-relations/">Honduras</a>, <a href="https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/07/27/nicaraguan-fm-described-relations-with-cuba-as-endearing/">Nicaragua</a> and <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/venezuela-and-cuba-ties-bind">Venezuela</a>). Membership would boost its influence. </p>
<h2>Character matters</h2>
<p>If an expanded BRICS is to be an agent for change on the world scene, it will need to be capable of action. Having rivals, or states that are at least ambivalent towards each other, seems anathema to that.</p>
<p>Eager to proceed cautiously and expand strategically, the current BRICS states seems likely, at least in the short term, to pursue a <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">BRICS-plus</a> strategy. In other words, there may emerge different strata of membership, with full membership granted to states that meet the group’s criteria over time. </p>
<p>It is thus not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five principals on whether they grow from that number.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siphamandla Zondi is affiliated with the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bhaso Ndzendze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five Brics countries on whether they admit new members.Bhaso Ndzendze, Associate Professor (International Relations), University of JohannesburgSiphamandla Zondi, Acting Director: Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089972023-07-11T16:16:46Z2023-07-11T16:16:46ZPainted messages in Angola’s abandoned liberation army camps offer a rare historical record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535493/original/file-20230704-16-1h6k37.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lilian Ngoyi, one of the leaders of the 1956 women’s march against apartheid, is immortalised on an abandoned building. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Angola’s Malanje province, the buildings of Camalundu stand abandoned amid open fields. On one of them, the fragmented words “IAN NGOYI” recall a figure little-known in Angola but familiar to South Africans: anti-apartheid leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/lilian-ngoyi-an-heroic-south-african-woman-whose-story-hasnt-been-fully-told-188345">Lilian Ngoyi</a>. </p>
<p>These large letters partly hide some words that were painted previously. From the faded letters that are visible, I could make out some words apparently in Spanish. These layers of paint – texts of South Africa’s then liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC), on top of Cuban texts painted on Portuguese colonial buildings – illustrate the changing uses of the site over the years. </p>
<p>Over the past three years I have been part of a project called <a href="https://global-soldiers.web.ox.ac.uk/">Global Soldiers in the Cold War</a>. We study the international exchanges of ideas about soldiering and politics that resulted from the interlinked liberation struggles and civil conflicts across southern Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. As part of this <a href="https://www.sources-journal.org/917">research</a> I visited some of the sites where liberation soldiers were trained in Angola. </p>
<p>The sites provide a rare tangible record of the international solidarity that existed during the Cold War: solidarity that prompted Cuba to provide civilian and military expertise to Angola’s MPLA-led government and to liberation movements from Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The liberation movements looked not only to their own countries’ histories but to earlier struggles in Cuba and Vietnam for ideas and inspiration.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-narrative-unfolds-about-south-africas-protracted-war-in-angola-54575">A new narrative unfolds about South Africa's protracted war in Angola</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After taking control of independent Angola in 1975, the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (<a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/angolan-civil-war-1975-2002-brief-history">MPLA</a>) – still fighting a civil war against its rival, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/UNITA">Unita</a>) – gave refuge to liberation fighters from Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa. The apartheid regime in South Africa, determined to undermine the liberation movements, provided military support to Unita in order to weaken the MPLA. Both the MPLA and the exiled movements <a href="https://theconversation.com/fidel-in-africa-how-the-cuban-leader-played-a-key-role-in-taking-on-apartheid-69665">enjoyed the support of Cuban and Soviet military advisers</a>.</p>
<p>Camalundu, established by the colonial government as an agricultural training centre, was used by the MPLA first as a civilian and later as a military training centre, with Cuban personnel.</p>
<h2>Places of learning and solidarity</h2>
<p>Historians have viewed liberation guerrilla training camps as a particular kind of social and political environment. Host countries like Angola allowed exiled movements to act, to a certain extent, like enclave governments with state-like powers over their own members. </p>
<p>Guerrillas, already filled with idealism, absorbed ideas and experiences from their new environment. But they were also at the mercy of national and international strategic calculations, without the immediate prospect of returning home in triumph. </p>
<p>Camps were places where liberation fighters came into contact with officials and soldiers from their host countries, as well as trainers from Cuba and the Soviet Union. The slogans painted at Camalundu provide evidence of how people were taught that they were there as part of a global struggle.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sixth congress of the Non-Aligned Movement, held in Havana in 1979, commemorated at Camalundu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Facing the building with Lilian Ngoyi’s name was another slogan in Spanish: “VI cumbre un paso mas en la unidade de los no-alineaos” (six completes another step in the unity of the non-aligned), a reference to the <a href="http://cns.miis.edu/nam/documents/Official_Document/6th_Summit_FD_Havana_Declaration_1979_Whole.pdf">sixth congress of the Non-Aligned Movement</a>, which was held in Havana in 1979. </p>
<h2>From King Cetshwayo to Ho Chi Minh</h2>
<p>South African history appears again with the name of Cetshwayo, the last Zulu monarch to resist the British Empire before conquest. His name was painted above the entrance of another now-abandoned building. This was likely painted in 1979, the<a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv02918/06lv02942.htm"> ANC’s “Year of the Spear”</a>, the centenary of the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anglo-zulu-wars-1879-1896">Battle of Isandlwana</a> when Cetshwayo’s army resisted the better-armed British. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zulu king Cetshwayo, defeated in 1879, commemorated a century later.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On a similar building, the letters “…O C… MI…” point to the commemoration of the Vietnamese revolutionary leader <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/people/ho-chi-minh-ho-chi-minh">Ho Chi Minh</a>. On another building, the remains of his portrait are just about visible, above the English translation of a slogan associated with him:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/40928/nothing-is-more-precious-than-independence-and-freedom">Nothing is more precious than freedom and independence</a>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>An ANC delegation <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/green-book-report-politico-military-strategy-commission-anc-national-executive-committee">visited Vietnam in 1978</a>, a visit that had a profound effect on its military strategy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fragments of the name of Ho Chi Minh, painted not long after the ANC sought strategic advice from Vietnam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the slogans at Camalundu seem to point to events between 1978 and 1980. Not long after that, the ANC presence there ended when its soldiers were moved to Caculama, further east. Caculama had housed a training camp established by the Zimbabwean African People’s Union (<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25065139">Zapu</a>), which became vacant after Zimbabwe became independent in 1980 and the Zimbabwean soldiers went home. </p>
<p>Around the same time, American president Ronald Reagan and South African prime minister <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/pieter-willem-botha">PW Botha</a> renewed their respective countries’ <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538933">commitment to supporting Unita</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-narrative-unfolds-about-south-africas-protracted-war-in-angola-54575">against the MPLA</a>. The Angolan ruling party had taken a firm stand against apartheid and Washington saw it as a bridgehead for communist influence. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/radio-as-a-form-of-struggle-scenes-from-late-colonial-angola-128019">Radio as a form of struggle: scenes from late colonial Angola</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The MPLA began to see the foreign liberation fighters it was hosting as a potentially useful military reserve. The former ANC soldier Luthando Dyasop recalls how ANC leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-is-celebrating-the-year-of-or-tambo-who-was-he-85838">Oliver Tambo</a> <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-16-luthando-dyasop-journey-of-a-disillusioned-comrade-during-apartheid-south-africa/">told</a> soldiers of the ANC’s army, Umkhonto we sizwe (MK), they needed to “bleed a little” in recognition of Angola’s support for the South African struggle. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The remains of bunkers and trenches speak to the defensive function of the camp at Caculama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Southern Africa liberation movements and geopolitics</h2>
<p>Whereas Camalundu’s buildings stand in open countryside, Caculama is buried in thick bush. Trenches and the remains of underground bunkers remind us that this was the front line of the MPLA’s war against UNITA. Exiled movements were responsible for their own security within Angola. When the MPLA positioned ANC soldiers somewhere like Caculama, it knew that in defending its own camps, the ANC would also be part of the government’s defensive lines.</p>
<p>In their different ways, Camalundu and Caculama provide historians with evidence of liberation struggles and how they were entangled with the international politics of the time. </p>
<p>A Zimbabwean government delegation, I was told, had visited Caculama shortly before I was there – an acknowledgement at least of the site’s historical significance. Yet so far almost no attention has been given to preserving these sites.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sources-journal.org/917">A longer article about the training sites with more photos was published by Sources journal</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Pearce received funding from The Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>The sites provide a rare tangible record of the international solidarity that existed during the Cold War.Justin Pearce, Senior lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2056202023-06-12T12:24:33Z2023-06-12T12:24:33ZLinguists have identified a new English dialect that’s emerging in South Florida<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530654/original/file-20230607-23-bbcsrb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C9%2C2171%2C1548&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Travel to Miami, and you might hear people say 'get down from the car' instead of 'get out of the car.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/protesters-hang-out-the-window-of-a-car-on-flagler-street-news-photo/51091597?adppopup=true">Miami Herald/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“We got down from the car and went inside.” </p>
<p>“I made the line to pay for groceries.”</p>
<p>“He made a party to celebrate his son’s birthday.”</p>
<p>These phrases might sound off to the ears of most English-speaking Americans.</p>
<p>In Miami, however, they’ve become part of the local parlance.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2023/get-down-from-the-car-miami-dialect">my recently published research</a>, these expressions – along with a host of others – form part of a new dialect taking shape in South Florida.</p>
<p>This language variety came about through sustained contact between Spanish and English speakers, particularly when speakers translated directly from Spanish. </p>
<h2>When French collided with English</h2>
<p>Whether you’re an English speaker living in Miami or elsewhere, chances are you don’t know where the words you know and use come from. </p>
<p>You’re probably aware that a limited number of words – usually foods, such as “sriracha” or “croissant” – are borrowed from other languages. But borrowed words are far more pervasive than you might think. </p>
<p>They’re all over English vocabulary: “<a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/pajamas">pajamas</a>” from Hindi; “<a href="https://animalia.bio/arabian-gazelle">gazelle</a>” from Arabic, via French; and “<a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/tsunami">tsunami</a>” from Japanese.</p>
<p>Borrowed words usually come from the minds and mouths of bilingual speakers who end up moving between different cultures and places. This can happen when certain events – war, colonialism, political exile, immigration and climate change – put speakers of different language groups into contact with one another. </p>
<p>When the contact takes place over an extended period of time – decades, generations or longer – the structures of the languages in question may begin to influence one another, and the speakers can begin to share each other’s vocabulary.</p>
<p>One bilingual confluence famously changed the trajectory of the English language. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Norman-Conquest">In 1066</a>, the Norman French, led by William the Conqueror, invaded England in an event now known as “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Norman-Conquest">the Norman Conquest</a>.” </p>
<p>Soon thereafter, a French-speaking ruling class replaced the English-speaking aristocracy, and for roughly 200 years, the elites of England – including the kings – did their business in French.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Faded color illustration of soldiers and injured troops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530640/original/file-20230607-26-mlovtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An 18th-century illustration of the Battle of Hastings, which initiated the Norman Conquest of England in 1066.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-battle-of-hastings-found-in-the-collection-of-british-news-photo/520722235?adppopup=true">Heritage Images/Hulton Fine Art Collection via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>English never really caught on with the aristocracy, but since servants and the middle classes needed to communicate with aristocrats – and with people of different classes intermarrying – French words trickled down the class hierarchy and into the language. </p>
<p>During this period, <a href="https://medium.com/english-language-faq/how-many-french-words-are-there-in-english-how-did-they-get-there-538f54ea016b">more than 10,000 loanwords</a> from French entered the English language, mostly in domains where the aristocracy held sway: the arts, military, medicine, law and religion. Words that today seem basic, even fundamental, to English vocabulary were, just 800 years ago, borrowed from French: prince, government, administer, liberty, court, prayer, judge, justice, literature, music, poetry, to name just a few.</p>
<h2>Spanish meets English in Miami</h2>
<p>Fast forward to today, where a similar form of language contact involving Spanish and English has been going on in Miami since the end of <a href="https://dp.la/primary-source-sets/cuban-immigration-after-the-revolution-1959-1973">the Cuban Revolution</a> in 1959.</p>
<p>In the years following the revolution, hundreds of thousands of Cubans left the island nation for South Florida, setting the stage for what would become one of the most important linguistic convergences in all of the Americas. </p>
<p>Today, the vast majority of the population is bilingual. In 2010, more than 65% of the population of Miami-Dade County identified as Hispanic or Latina/o, and in the large municipalities of Doral and Hialeah, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/15765243/Multilingual_Miami_Trends_in_Sociolinguistic_Research">the figure is 80% and 95%</a>, respectively.</p>
<p>Of course, identifying as Latina/o is not synonymous with speaking Spanish, and language loss has occurred among second- and third-generation Cuban Americans. But the point is that there is a lot of Spanish – and a lot of English – being spoken in Miami. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of Cubans walking on beach holding luggage and children." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530639/original/file-20230607-29-tu4xz9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban refugees on the island of Cay Sal wait for the U.S. Coast Guard to take them to Florida in 1962.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cuban-refugees-on-sal-cay-waiting-for-us-coast-guard-to-news-photo/50679206?adppopup=true">Lynn Pelham/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Among this mix are bilinguals. Some are more proficient in Spanish, and others are more skilled English speakers. Together, they navigate the sociolinguistic landscape of South Florida in complex ways, knowing when and with whom to use which language – and when it’s OK to mix them.</p>
<p>When the first large group of Cubans came to Miami in the wake of the revolution, they did precisely this, in two ways. </p>
<p>First, people alternated between Spanish and English, sometimes within the same sentence or clause. This set the stage for the enduring presence of Spanish vocabulary in South Florida, as well as the emergence of what some people refer to as “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2012/08/10/158570815/puedes-believe-it-spanglish-gets-in-el-dictionary">Spanglish</a>.” </p>
<p>Second, as people learned English, they tended to translate directly from Spanish. These translations are a type of borrowing that linguists call “<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/loan-translation-calque-1691255">calques</a>.”</p>
<p>Calques are all over the English language. </p>
<p>Take “dandelion.” This flower grows in central Europe, and when the Germans realized they didn’t have a word for it, they looked to botany books written in Latin, <a href="https://www.etymonline.com/word/dandelion">where it was called dens lionis</a>, or “lion’s tooth.” The Germans borrowed that concept and named the flower “<a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/L%C3%B6wenzahn">Löwenzahn</a>” – a literal translation of “lion’s tooth.” The French didn’t have a word for the flower, so they too borrowed the concept of “lion’s tooth,” calquing it as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/may/25/plantwatch-dandelions-hawthorn-sunshine">dent de lion</a>.” The English, also not having a word for this flower, heard the French term without understanding it, and borrowed it, adapting “dent de lion” into English, calling it “dandelion.” </p>
<h2>A new lingo emerges</h2>
<p>This is exactly the sort of thing that’s been happening in Miami.</p>
<p>As a part of my ongoing research with students and colleagues on the way English is spoken in Miami, I conducted <a href="https://www.jbe-platform.com/content/journals/10.1075/eww.22036.car">a study</a> with linguist <a href="https://buffalo.academia.edu/KristenDAlessandroMerii">Kristen D’Allessandro Merii</a> to document Spanish-origin calques in the English spoken in South Florida. </p>
<p>We found several types of loan translations. </p>
<p>There were “<a href="https://pureenglish.org/2012/05/06/calques-loan-translations/">literal lexical calques</a>,” a direct, word-for-word translation. </p>
<p>For example, we found people to use expressions such as “get down from the car” instead of “get out of the car.” This is based on the Spanish phrase “bajar del carro,” which translates, for speakers outside of Miami, as “get out of the car.” But “bajar” means “to get down,” so it makes sense that many Miamians think of “exiting” a car in terms of “getting down” and not “getting out.” </p>
<p>Locals often say “married with,” as in “Alex got married with José,” based on the Spanish “casarse con” – literally translated as “married with.” They’ll also say “make a party,” a literal translation of the Spanish “hacer una fiesta.”</p>
<p>We also found “<a href="https://langeek.co/en/grammar/course/359/loan-words-and-calque">semantic calques</a>,” or loan translations of meaning. In Spanish, “carne,” which translates as “meat,” can refer to both all meat, or to beef, a specific kind of meat. We discovered local speakers saying “meat” to refer specifically to “beef” – as in, “I’ll have one meat empanada and two chicken empanadas.” </p>
<p>And then there were “phonetic calques,” or the translation of certain sounds. </p>
<p>“Thanks God,” a type of loan translation from “gracias a Dios,” is common in Miami. In this case, speakers analogize the “s” sound at the end of “gracias” and apply it to the English form.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yoTeQ73rP9I?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Examples of unique expressions that have emerged in Miami.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Miami-born adopt the calques</h2>
<p>We found that some expressions were used only among the immigrant generation – for example, “throw a photo,” from “tirar una foto,” as a variation of “take a photo.” </p>
<p>But other expressions were used among the Miami-born, a group who may be bilingual but speak English as their primary language. </p>
<p>In an experiment, we asked Miamians and people from elsewhere in the U.S. to rate local expressions such as “married with” alongside the nonlocal versions, like “married to.” Both groups deemed the nonlocal versions acceptable. But Miamians rated most of the local expressions significantly more favorably than folks from elsewhere.</p>
<p>“Language is always changing” is practically a truism; most people know that Old English is radically different from Modern English, or that English in London sounds different from English in New Delhi, New York City, Sydney and Cape Town, South Africa. </p>
<p>But rarely do we pause to think about how these changes take place, or to ponder where dialects and words come from. </p>
<p>“Get down from the car,” just like “dandelion,” is a reminder that every word and every expression have a history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phillip M. Carter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It came about through sustained contact with native Spanish speakers who directly translated phrases from Spanish into English, a form of linguistic borrowing called ‘calques.’Phillip M. Carter, Associate Professor of Linguistics, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2026852023-03-30T16:09:00Z2023-03-30T16:09:00ZCuban election: high turnout despite opposition call for boycott<p>Results of the five-yearly <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2023/03/27/elecciones-nacionales-voto-el-75-92-por-ciento-del-padron-electoral-segun-resultados-preliminares/">Cuban national assembly elections</a> on March 26 will have disappointed opposition figures, who had called for a boycott to signal unhappiness with the government’s performance.</p>
<p>Two-thirds of the electorate submitted valid votes (that were not spoiled nor blank) despite opposition calls for people to stay away. Given all the difficulties and tensions of the past few years, the high numbers of voters seems to suggest that, although it is under strain, the Cuban political system is more resilient than expected. Turnout <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-election-day-nears-some-voters-ask-why-bother-2023-03-22/">had been dropping</a> since the days of former leader <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro">Fidel Castro</a>, and poor voter numbers could have signalled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIIPVHFGm00">significant dissatisfaction</a> with the current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez.</p>
<p>One of the reasons for the high turnout may be a sense of communal rejection of US threats to national sovereignty, the importance of which should not be ignored, according to historians such as <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9780807858998/on-becoming-cuban/">Louis Pérez</a>. Tightening of US sanctions has certainly contributed to everyday <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-mass-protests-are-driven-by-the-misery-of-covid-and-economic-sanctions-164505">suffering</a> and economic hardship. Another reason for a high turnout may be President Díaz-Canel Bermúdez’s efforts to push ahead with reforms, increasing accountability and creating more opportunities for private enterprise and participation in decision-making at local level. </p>
<p>The election results and <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2023/03/27/elecciones-nacionales-voto-el-75-92-por-ciento-del-padron-electoral-segun-resultados-preliminares/">turnout of 76%</a> might also be interpreted as an indication that among the majority who still support the government even in the middle of the recession, there is an increased willingness to actively express preferences rather than offer unconditional loyalty. This shift is expressed in the growing proportion (up from 20% of valid votes in 2018 to 28% in 2023) who selected specific candidates from the list for their constituency, rather than fully complying with official encouragement to simply indicate acceptance of the complete slate. </p>
<h2>The backdrop</h2>
<p>The elections mark the end of the first term of Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, during which the population has suffered from a severe <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CU">recession</a>. </p>
<p>Since the last election in 2018, the country has witnessed a series of major disasters, including a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-44176899">plane crash</a>, three hurricanes, three tropical storms, a tornado, a gas explosion that destroyed a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-61358186">hotel</a> and a huge fire at the country’s main <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/third-oil-storage-tank-collapses-cuba-terminal-following-fire-spill-governor-2022-08-08/">oil depot</a>. But the economic impact of those disasters were dwarfed by two further blows: the COVID pandemic and, above all, US foreign policy towards Cuba. </p>
<p>Despite the development and successful roll-out of effective vaccines, the possibility of an economic bounce-back from the COVID-induced recession (an <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CU">11% fall in GDP</a>) has been effectively blocked by unprecedented restrictions on Cuba’s access to international trade and finance resulting from US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration and maintained under Joe Biden’s presidency.</p>
<p><strong>March 2023 election: type of vote</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bar graph showing types of votes cast at Cuban elections." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518185/original/file-20230329-16-m73ub7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cuban voting by type of vote.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author based on Cuban electoral commission figures.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The effects of COVID and tightened US sanctions have combined with the sorry state of the country’s infrastructure. Another factor was caused by the price of <a href="https://www.fao.org/prices/en/">food</a> and <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/266659/west-texas-intermediate-oil-prices/#:%7E:text=The%20annual%20average%20price%20of,barrel%20as%20of%20January%202023.">energy</a> imports soaring between 2020 and 2022, which resulted in power outages and food shortages. A 2021 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-economy-reform-explainer-idINKBN28L2AD">currency reform</a> exacerbated disruption and hardships by sparking an inflationary surge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cuba-why-record-numbers-of-people-are-leaving-as-the-most-severe-economic-crisis-since-the-1990s-hits-a-photo-essay-198718">Cuba: why record numbers of people are leaving as the most severe economic crisis since the 1990s hits -- a photo essay</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Long queues and a growing sense of frustration also contributed to unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-mass-protests-are-driven-by-the-misery-of-covid-and-economic-sanctions-164505">protests</a> in mid-2021 and a record-breaking wave of <a href="https://theconversation.com/cuba-why-record-numbers-of-people-are-leaving-as-the-most-severe-economic-crisis-since-the-1990s-hits-a-photo-essay-198718">emigration</a>. In 2022, almost 250,000 people – over 2% of the population – are reported to have left for the US, including many of Cuba’s youngest and brightest. </p>
<h2>How do elections work?</h2>
<p>The Cuban electoral system was originally created as a “participatory” rather than “representative” system of democracy in an attempt to avoid the political conflict, violence, corruption and foreign interference experienced before the 1959 revolution, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45367319?seq=2">as described</a> by political scientist William LeoGrande. </p>
<p>As the Cuban Communist party is the only legal political party, Cuban elections are not contests between parties. The 470 candidates for the national assembly do not represent the party. Instead, around half of them are representatives of municipal governments (themselves elected in municipal elections) and the rest are nominated by bigger organisations. These include neighbourhood committees, official trade unions, the women’s federation, students’ organisations and the small farmers’ association. Local electoral commissions then select one candidate for each seat from the list of nominated candidates. It is not a requirement for candidates, members of mass organisations or the electoral commission to be members of the party; however, many are, effectively making it impossible for self-proclaimed dissidents to be selected. </p>
<p>The local electoral commissions, whose members are selected from the mass organisations, are responsible for the organisation of the ballots and counting of the vote. Once selected, candidates must receive over 50% of valid votes to become a member of the national assembly. Voters can either accept all the candidates on the list for their constituency (a “united vote”) or select some and not others. Voting is secret and voluntary.</p>
<p>Over the years, and particularly over the past decade, efforts have been made to ensure that candidates are representative of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/world/americas/cuba-leaders-black-officials-raul-castro.html">population</a>. They include ministers, workers, farmers, educators, managers and health workers. The average age of candidates in 2023, at 46 years, is lower than previous elections, while the proportion who are non-white has increased (45% compared with 41% in 2018), and 53% are women. </p>
<p>The national turnout for these elections, <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/etiqueta/comision-electoral-nacional-cen/">confirmed</a> by the national electoral commission, was 76%. Although this is above the turnout in legislative elections in the UK (<a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-turnout/">67.3%</a> in 2019) and US (at 62.8% of the voting age population in 2020 and 47.5% in 2022, according to the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/01/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries/">Pew Research Center</a>), it is significantly less than the 86% recorded in the last national election in <a href="https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2534/">2018</a>. The abstention rate increased, from 14% registered electors in 2018 to 24% in 2023, and in blank or spoiled ballots, from 5.6% to 9.7%, a possible indication that the hardship of the past few years have taken their toll on public confidence in the government. </p>
<p>Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, who lacks the status and charisma of his predecessors Fidel Castro and his brother, Raúl Castro (who were both leaders of the 1959 revolution), will need to be alert to concerns of the electorate as he begins his second term. He will need to find ways to improve living standards quickly. He has pushed ahead with reforms to allow Cubans to create private companies, foster innovation through university-enterprise links, and devolve budgets and decision-making to enable municipal authorities to directly respond to local demands. </p>
<p>However, with inflation persisting and fiscal resources overstretched, his scope for macroeconomic stimulation is restricted. A major obstacle is the US government’s seeming <a href="https://english.elpais.com/usa/2023-03-06/biden-fails-to-deliver-on-expected-post-trump-thaw-between-us-and-cuba.html">commitment</a> to retain the most important economic sanctions, but Díaz-Canel Bermúdez must prevent further erosion in confidence in Cuba’s government and its political system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Morris has received funding from University College London, the Ford Foundation and the British Embassy, Havana. </span></em></p>Cubans turned out in higher numbers than expected at the recent elections.Emily Morris, Research Associate, Institute of the Americas, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2007442023-03-09T14:28:58Z2023-03-09T14:28:58ZJimmy Carter’s African legacy: peacemaker, negotiator and defender of rights<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512455/original/file-20230227-1191-gv4ueg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Carter's interest in southern Africa was crucial to keeping the peace.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When historians and pundits praise Jimmy Carter’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-american-studies/article/abs/nancy-mitchell-jimmy-carter-in-africa-race-and-the-cold-war-stanford-ca-stanford-university-press-2016-4500-pp-xiv-883-isbn-978-0-8047-9358-8/DB52A5925C6F10E199F93FB881AB03D9">achievements</a> as the US president and extol his exemplary post-presidential years, they mention the recognition of China, the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/e-lessons/the-panama-canal-treaties-jimmy-carter">Panama Canal Treaties</a> and the <a href="https://carterschool.gmu.edu/why-study-here/legacy-leadership/camp-david-hal-saunders-and-responsibility-peacemaking">Camp David Accords</a>. Almost no one mentions what Carter achieved in Africa during his presidency. This is a serious oversight. </p>
<p>When I interviewed President Carter in 2002, <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/extra/?id=25540&i=Excerpt%20from%20the%20Introduction.html">he told me</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I spent more effort and worry on Rhodesia than I did on the Middle East.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The archival record supports the former president’s claim. Reams of documents detail Carter’s sustained and deep focus during his presidency on ending white rule in Rhodesia, and helping to bring about the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/zimbabawean-independence-day">independence of Zimbabwe</a>.</p>
<p>There were several reasons for Carter’s focus on southern Africa. First, realpolitik. Southern Africa was the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25798909?seq=4">hottest theatre</a> of the Cold War when Carter took office in January 1977. A year earlier, Fidel Castro had sent <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">36,000 Cuban troops</a> to Angola to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">protect the leftist MPLA</a> from a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Conflicting-Missions-Havana-Washington-1959-1976/dp/0807854646">South African invasion</a> backed by the Gerald Ford administration. The <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Visions-Freedom-Washington-Pretoria-1976-1991/dp/1469628325">Cubans remained in Angola until 1991 </a>.</p>
<p>Mozambique was no longer governed by America’s NATO ally, Portugal, but instead by the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4185752">left-leaning Frelimo</a> . Apartheid South Africa – so recently a stable, pro-American outpost far from the Cold War – suddenly faced the prospect of being surrounded by hostile black-ruled states.</p>
<p>The unfolding events in southern Africa riveted Washington’s attention on Rhodesia, where the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">insurgency against the white minority government</a> of <a href="https://www.mandela.ac.za/Leadership-and-Governance/Honorary-Doctorates/Ian-Smith-1979">Ian Smith</a> was escalating. One week after the Carter administration took office it assessed the crisis in Rhodesia: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This situation contains the seeds of another Angola … If the breakdown of talks means intensified warfare, Soviet/Cuban influence is bound to increase.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The administration knew that if the war did not end, the Cuban troops might cross the continent to help the rebels.</p>
<h2>And then what?</h2>
<p>It was unthinkable that the Carter administration, with its <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/human-rights#:%7E:text=He%20intended%20to%20infuse%20a,the%20fate%20of%20freedom%20">stress on human rights</a>, would intervene in Rhodesia to support the racist government of Ian Smith. But, given the Cold War, it was equally unthinkable that it would stand aside passively enabling another Soviet-backed Cuban victory in Africa. Therefore, the administration’s first <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44376206">Presidential Review Memorandum</a> on southern Africa, written immediately after Carter took office, announced:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In terms of urgency, the Rhodesian problem is highest priority.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Carter administration assembled a <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=25540">high-powered negotiating team</a>, led by <a href="https://aysps.gsu.edu/andrew-young-biography/">UN Ambassador Andrew Young</a> and <a href="https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/vance">Secretary of State Cyrus Vance</a>, to coordinate with the British and hammer out a settlement. These negotiations, spearheaded by the Americans, led to the <a href="https://sas-space.sas.ac.uk/5847/5/1979_Lancaster_House_Agreement.pdf">Lancaster House talks</a> in Britain, and the free elections in 1980 and black majority rule in an independent in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>There was another reason for Carter’s interest in southern Africa: race. Carter <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Before-Daylight-Memories-Boyhood/dp/0743211995">grew up in the segregated South</a> of the 1920s and 1930s. As a child, he did not question the racist strictures of the <a href="https://www.ferris.edu/HTMLS/news/jimcrow/what.htm">Jim Crow South</a>, but as he matured, served in the US Navy and was elected governor of Georgia, his worldview evolved. </p>
<p>He appreciated how the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/collections/civil-rights-history-project/articles-and-essays/">civil rights movement</a> had helped liberate the US South from its regressive past, and he regretted that he had not been an active participant in the movement. When I asked Carter why he had expended so much effort on Rhodesia, part of his explanation was:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I felt a sense of responsibility and some degree of guilt that we had spent an entire century after the Civil War still persecuting blacks, and to me the situation in Africa was inseparable from the fact of deprivation or persecution or oppression of Black people in the South. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Parallels with the US South</h2>
<p>Carter’s belief that there were parallels between the freedom struggles in the US South and in southern Africa may have been naïve, but it was important. </p>
<p>Influenced by Andrew Young, who had been a <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/young-andrew">close aide</a> to <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1964/king/biographical/">Martin Luther King </a>, Carter transcended the knee-jerk anticommunist reaction of previous American presidents to the members of the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/struggle-Zimbabwe-Chimurenga-War/dp/0949932000">Patriotic Front</a>, the loose alliance of insurgents fighting the regime of <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lifeinfocus/a-life-in-focus-ian-douglas-smith-last-white-prime-minister-rhodesia-zimbabwe-a8754971.html">Ian Smith</a>.</p>
<p>Young challenged the Manichaean tropes of the Cold War. <a href="https://stanfordpress.typepad.com/blog/2017/04/race-and-the-cold-war.html">He explained in 1977</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Communism has never been a threat to me … Racism has always been a threat – and that has been the enemy of all of my life. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Young helped Carter see the Patriotic Front, albeit leftist guerrillas supported by Cuba and the Soviet Union, as freedom fighters. Therefore, unlike the Gerald Ford administration which had <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">shunned</a> the Front and tried to settle the conflict through negotiations with the white leaders of Rhodesia and South Africa, Carter considered the Front the key players. He brought them to the fore of the negotiations. This was extraordinarily rare in the annals of US diplomacy during the Cold War. </p>
<p>Carter has not received the credit his administration deserves for the Zimbabwe settlement. It was a success not only in moral terms, enabling free elections in an independent country. It also precluded a repetition of the Cuban intervention in Angola. It was Carter’s signal achievement in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/512411/original/file-20230227-24-kep09i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The late former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan (C) speaks as former US president Jimmy Carter and Graca Machel of Mozambique look on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexander Joe/AFP via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Angola and the Cold War reflexes</h2>
<p>Carter also improved US relations with the continent as a whole. He <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">increased</a> trade, diplomatic contacts and, simply, treated Black Africa with respect.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">war in the Horn of Africa</a>, he resisted intense pressure to throw full US support behind the Somalis when the Somali government waged a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jimmy-Carter-Africa-International-History/dp/0804793859">war of aggression</a> against leftist Ethiopia. His administration attempted valiantly to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/dh/article-abstract/34/5/853/490367">negotiate a settlement</a> in Namibia and condemned apartheid in South Africa. </p>
<p>But in Angola, as historian Piero Gleijeses’ superb <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Visions-Freedom-Washington-Pretoria-1976-1991/dp/1469628325">research</a> has shown, Carter reverted to Cold War reflexes. He asserted that the US would restore full relations with Angola only after the Cuban troops had departed. This, even though he knew that the Cubans were there by invitation of the Angolan government, and were essential to hold the South Africans at bay. Carter’s was the typical response of US governments to any perceived communist threat. But it serves to highlight – by contrast – how unusual was the administration’s policy of embracing the Patriotic Front in Zimbabwe. </p>
<p>For the next 40 years, Carter focused more on sub-Saharan Africa than on any other region of the world. The Carter Center’s almost total <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/23/1158358366/jimmy-carter-took-on-the-awful-guinea-worm-when-no-one-else-would-and-he-triumph">eradication of Guinea worm</a> has saved an estimated 80 million Africans from this devastating disease. Its election monitoring throughout the continent, and its conflict resolution programmes, have bolstered democracy. </p>
<p>Carter’s work in Africa, and especially in Zimbabwe, forms a significant and underappreciated part of his impressive legacy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nancy Mitchell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Carter’s work in Zimbabwe forms a significant and under appreciated part of his legacyNancy Mitchell, Professor of History, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987182023-02-17T12:09:56Z2023-02-17T12:09:56ZCuba: why record numbers of people are leaving as the most severe economic crisis since the 1990s hits – a photo essay<p>Record numbers of Cubans <a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-11-15/the-never-ending-cuban-exodus.html">are fleeing </a> their country as the island suffers its worst <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-economy-reform-explainer-idINKBN28L2AD">socio-economic crisis</a> since the collapse of <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/The-Fall-and-Recovery-of-the-Cuban-Economy-in-the-1990-s-Mirage-or-Reality-4066">the Soviet Union</a>.</p>
<p>The number of Cubans seeking entry to the US, mostly at the Mexican border, leapt from 39,000 in 2021 to <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF10045.pdf">more than 224,000 in 2022</a>. Many have sold their homes <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/07/1103456116/cuba-cuban-migrants-real-estate">at knockdown prices</a> to afford one-way flights to Nicaragua and travel through Mexico to the US. </p>
<p>Cuba’s 11 million inhabitants find themselves in increasingly desperate straits. Internal migration from the poorer provinces has led to overpopulation in the capital Havana. Those for whom the government can’t provide homes live in <em>albergues</em> (precarious abandoned buildings refashioned as temporary homes). Others live in <em>solares</em> (tenement buildings), some at serious risk of collapse.</p>
<p>Acute shortages of food and medicine are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-forecasts-only-slight-growth-rise-crisis-grips-island-2022-12-12/">a daily reality</a> in a country that’s been ravaged by a <a href="https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-02-07/the-us-embargo-against-cuba-turns-60-with-no-policy-change-on-the-horizon.html">US trade embargo</a> since 1962, and strict government control of the economy since 1959. Regular power outages have reminded Cubans of the early 1990s when <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/11824/chapter/160918064">Soviet subsidies ended</a> as the USSR collapsed, leaving the island struggling. </p>
<p>To survive that “<a href="https://america.cgtn.com/2018/04/17/cuba-past-and-present-the-special-period">special period</a>”, Cuba became reliant on hard currency earnings from international tourism and nationals working abroad. Both are now much reduced. COVID measures closed the island to foreign tourists and reduced visitor numbers <a href="http://www.onei.gob.cu/sites/default/files/turismo_nac_e_int_indicadores_seleccionados_enero-diciembre_2020_0.pdf">by 75%</a> during 2020. </p>
<p>Ill-timed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-economy-reform-explainer-idINKBN28L2AD">currency reforms</a>, which unified Cuba’s two currencies, in early 2021 created an inflationary shock. Food shortages have sparked a <a href="https://fee.org/articles/cubas-bustling-black-markets-hold-an-important-economic-lesson/">black market boom</a>. </p>
<p>On a recent trip to Cuba, co-author of this piece James Clifford Kent talked to local people and took photographs. Luis Lázaro, a construction worker from Havana, told him: “It’s got really bad. A complete crisis: food, medicine, clothes. If it’s not one thing it’s another. You work non-stop just to make ends meet and sometimes it’s not enough.”</p>
<p>As recently as 2016, after more than half a century of hostilities, US-Cuban relations were coming in from the cold. Barack Obama became the first serving US president <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/20/barack-obama-cuba-visit-us-politics-shift-public-opinion-diplomacy">to visit the island</a> since Calvin Coolidge in 1928. The Rolling Stones rocked Havana <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-live-reviews/rolling-stones-thrill-huge-crowd-at-historic-havana-show-160574/">with a free concert</a>. </p>
<p>Packed cruise ships unloaded their passengers at Havana’s harbour, to be whisked off on open-top classic car tours of the capital. Planeloads of foreigners hopped down to Havana to soak up the heady atmosphere, with <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/photos/2015/10/rihanna-in-cuba-the-cover-story-november-photos">Rihanna</a>, Beyoncé and Jay-Z among the vanguard of high-profile western visitors. Private enterprise flourished and the spirit of optimism was everywhere.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/u-s-cuba-relations-will-joe-biden-pick-up-where-barack-obama-left-off-153269">U.S.-Cuba relations: Will Joe Biden pick up where Barack Obama left off?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>But Cuba’s economy and relationship with the United States faltered again after <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10714839.2017.1331828">Donald Trump was elected</a> in November 2016, just as the island’s revolutionary <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38114953">leader Fidel Castro</a> died. President Trump reinstated longstanding travel and business restrictions. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, US diplomats and intelligence officers stationed on the island reported hearing loss, headaches and vertigo in a mysterious outbreak of “<a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7gyxq/havana-syndrome-podcast">Havana syndrome</a>” in late 2016. Washington blamed Cuba and withdrew most of its embassy staff, just two years after both governments had reopened embassies in their respective capitals for the first time since 1961. </p>
<p>One of Trump’s last acts before leaving office in January 2021 was to return Cuba to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-mass-protests-are-driven-by-the-misery-of-covid-and-economic-sanctions-164505">list of state sponsors of terrorism</a>, obstructing its access to international finance. Trump had already restricted the remittances that Cuban-Americans could send to the island.</p>
<p>President Joe Biden has now shifted policy again as pressure mounts over increased illegal migration to the United States. He re-opened the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/10/cuban-exodus-us-embassy-havana-immigration-policy">US embassy in Havana</a> for visa applications in January 2023, offering some Cubans an official route to emigration.</p>
<h2>Cuban resistance</h2>
<p>Increased mobile internet access since 2018 and widespread use of social media play significant roles in a new mood among Cubans. The <a href="https://country.eiu.com/cuba">Economist Intelligence Unit</a> describes their double impact: the demand for political and economic liberalisation and accountability has increased, while US sanctions and dissident support have emboldened those hardliners resistant to reform. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/03/why-the-internet-in-cuba-has-become-a-us-political-hot-potato">government restrictions</a> and poor infrastructure, 68% of Cubans now have access to the internet. Whatsapp, Instagram and other social networks are much used by Cubans, particularly young people.</p>
<p>Internet access was key to the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57818918">2021 Cuban protests</a> when local discontent fuelled by COVID restrictions and widespread shortages resulted in street protests that police quickly suppressed. Many <a href="https://www.frieze.com/article/looking-back-year-art-and-protest-cuba">high-profile artists</a> and Cuban bloggers accused by the government of being funded by the United States were detained.</p>
<h2>Making a mass exodus</h2>
<p>Ana María, a 52-year-old Cuban mother-of-two, described how delinquency and corruption are on the rise. People prefer to sell products on the black market than work for a salary that doesn’t cover basic needs, she said. </p>
<p>One 29-year-old Cuban artist, who didn’t want to be named, said: “Many of my close friends have joined <em>el rumbo al norte</em> (the route north) in search of socio-economic stability for themselves and their families.”</p>
<p>Cubans’ famed ability to <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/07/inside-cubas-diy-internet-revolution/"><em>resolver</em></a> (be resourceful) in the face of immense difficulties is reaching its limit. Hope is fading fast.</p>
<p>After six decades of trade blockades and a rigid socialist model, plummeting living standards have led <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF10045.pdf">2% of Cuba’s population</a> to abandon the island in just one year. </p>
<p>Many more are desperate to follow them.</p>
<p><em>Some names have been changed and some sources requested anonymity.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The island is facing the harshest economic conditions since the 1990s, prompting 224,000 people to leave in 12 months.James Clifford Kent, Senior Lecturer in Latin American Studies & Visual Culture, Royal Holloway University of LondonChristopher Hull, Senior Lecturer in Spanish and Latin American Studies, University of ChesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1984302023-02-01T12:36:54Z2023-02-01T12:36:54ZSouth Africa and Russia: President Cyril Ramaphosa’s foreign policy explained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507115/original/file-20230130-6879-11w5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa. </span> </figcaption></figure><p>January was a busy diplomatic month for South Africa. The country <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/russias-lavrov-visits-ally-south-africa-amid-western-rivalry-2023-01-23/">hosted</a> Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US treasury secretary <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-treasury-secretary-yellen-meet-president-ramaphosa-south-africa-trip-2023-01-24/">Janet Yellen</a>. Josep Borrell, vice-president of the European Commission, was also <a href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/media-advisory-high-representative-josep-borrell-travels-south-africa-and-botswana_en">in town</a>.</p>
<p>The biggest talking point, though, has been Lavrov’s visit, which met with criticism in the west. Similarly, the South African-Russian-Chinese joint maritime exercise, <a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/sandf-on-ex-mosi/">Operation Mosi</a>, scheduled for February off the South African Indian Ocean coast. Critics have slammed South Africa’s hosting of the war games in the light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-demands-kyiv-forces-surrender-2022-02-24/">in February 2022</a>. </p>
<p>South Africa has been reticent to criticise Russia openly for invading Ukraine. The country <a href="https://theconversation.com/african-countries-showed-disunity-in-un-votes-on-russia-south-africas-role-was-pivotal-180799">abstained during each vote</a> criticising Russia at the United Nations. Some have read this as tacit support of Russia.</p>
<p>The visits and South Africa’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put the spotlight on the country’s foreign policy.</p>
<p>I follow, study and have published extensively on South Africa’s foreign policy. In a recent publication, <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/south-african-foreign-policy-review-volume-4">Ramaphosa and a New Dawn for South African Foreign Policy</a>, my co-editors and I point out that South Africa’s voting pattern in these instances should be read in the context of its <a href="https://pmg.org.za/briefing/28596/">declared foreign policy</a> under the stewardship of President Cyril Ramaphosa. </p>
<p>Like his predecessors, Ramaphosa’s policy encompasses at least five principles:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>pan-Africanism </p></li>
<li><p>South-South solidarity </p></li>
<li><p>non-alignment </p></li>
<li><p>independence </p></li>
<li><p>progressive internationalism. The governing ANC <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/anc-npc-discussion-document-on-foreign-policy">defines</a> this as</p></li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>an approach to global relations anchored in the pursuit of global solidarity, social justice, common development and human security, etc. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Evolution of South Africa’s foreign policy</h2>
<p>In the era of Nelson Mandela, the first president of democratic South Africa, the country, once a pariah state, returned to the international community. Under him, the country saw a significant increase in its <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC88112">bilateral and multilateral relations</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/history-may-explain-south-africas-refusal-to-condemn-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-178657">History may explain South Africa's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>It enjoyed global goodwill and Mandela was recognised for his <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-russian-visit-says-about-south-africas-commitment-to-human-rights-in-the-world-188993">outspoken views</a> on international human rights abuses. His involvement in conflict resolution efforts in, for example, <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/07/22/mandela-indonesia-and-liberation-timor-leste.html">Timor Leste</a> (East Timor) and Africa also received <a href="https://www.un.org/en/exhibits/page/building-legacy-nelson-mandela">international acclaim</a>. The UN declared 18 July <a href="https://www.un.org/en/events/mandeladay/">Nelson Mandela International Day</a>. </p>
<p>Mandela’s tenure was followed by the aspirational era of President Thabo Mbeki’s <a href="https://journals.co.za/journal/aa.afren">African renaissance</a>. Mbeki’s foreign policy aspired to reposition Africa as a global force as well as to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330614094_Mbeki_on_African_Renaissance_a_vehicle_for_Africa_development">rekindle</a> pan-Africanism and African unity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man wearing a suit and tie shakes hands with a woman wearing a dress." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507113/original/file-20230130-14-p18rp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, (left), with South African foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, in Pretoria on 23 January 23.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phill Magakoe/AFP via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His successor <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26976626#metadata_info_tab_contents">Jacob Zuma’s era</a> could be described as indigenisation of South Africa’s foreign policy, driven by the values of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-archbishop-tutus-ubuntu-credo-teaches-the-world-about-justice-and-harmony-84730">ubuntu</a> (humanness). In giving effect to ubuntu – equality, peace and cooperation – as a foreign policy principle, South Africa gravitated towards the global south, rather than just Africa. Yet the continent remained a focus of South Africa’s foreign policy.</p>
<h2>Ramaphosa’s foreign policy</h2>
<p>South Africa’s <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/south-african-foreign-policy-review-volume-4">foreign policy</a> under President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted to a strong emphasis on economic diplomacy. This is joined by a commitment to <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/National-Policy-Conference-2017-International-Relations.pdf">“progressive internationalism”</a>.</p>
<p>Progressive internationalism formed the basis for South Africa’s vocal position on UN reform, global equity and ending the dominance of the global north. The global north could view this as challenging to its hegemonic power and dominance in the UN. </p>
<p>This has challenged South Africa’s declared foreign policy principles. It maintains strong economic and political relations with the global north. But it also maintains strong relations with the global south (including Cuba, Venezuela and Russia). For this, it has been <a href="https://gga.org/south-africas-foreign-policy-decisions-ambiguous-or-misunderstood/#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%20has%20been%20criticised,means%20deployment%20is%20more%20rapid">criticised</a> by the west.</p>
<p>South Africa’s quest for global status in line with its declared foreign policy principles continues under Ramaphosa. It has adopted several roles to achieve this: balancer, spoiler and good international citizenship. </p>
<p>As a balancer, it has attempted to rationalise its relations with both the north and south in accordance with the principles of non-alignment and independence. As a spoiler, it has failed to condemn, for example, China for its poor human rights record, claiming it is an internal Chinese matter. This could be read as an expression of its south-south solidarity with China. Its role as a good international citizen has made it an approachable international actor. It has promoted the rule of international law and upholding international norms. This speaks to its progressive internationalism principle.</p>
<h2>At home and abroad</h2>
<p>The Ramaphosa era set off in 2018 with less emphasis on foreign policy. But by the time the COVID pandemic broke out <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext">in December 2019</a>, his foreign policy really came to the fore as he led both the South African and African pandemic responses.</p>
<p>South Africa has been attempting to capitalise on the geostrategic changes in the balance of forces on the world stage. Blatant realpolitik has returned. During the past year, for example, the country has conducted joint multilateral military exercises with several states, most notably with France (<a href="https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/ex-oxide-2022-will-be-west-coast-based/">Operation Oxide</a>), a permanent member of the UN Security Council.</p>
<p>South Africa’s soft diplomacy has <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-09-22-jerusalemadancechallenge-south-africas-display-of-soft-power-amid-covid-19/">made some inroads</a> at UN agencies and through its cultural diplomacy. But this has not necessarily resulted in material gains – such as more leadership in multilateral organisations.</p>
<p>Moreover, its gravitation towards strong non-western military powers such as Russia, China and India has met with western disappointment. Its foreign policy position of solidarity, independence, non-alignment and <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/remarks-president-cyril-ramaphosa-south-african-heads-mission-conference-7-apr-2022-0000">progressive internationalism</a> has not translated into material foreign policy benefits either, such as increased foreign direct investment as envisaged by Ramaphosa’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/remarks-president-cyril-ramaphosa-south-african-heads-mission-conference-7-apr-2022-0000">economic diplomacy</a>.</p>
<p>Trade with states such as China, Turkey, Russia and India has <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/06/20/cyril-ramaphosa-brics-partnership-has-great-value-for-south-africa">increased</a>. But it is not enough as the country requires massive investment to update infrastructure and start new development projects in line with Ramaphosa’s vision of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-new-dawn-should-be-built-on-evidence-based-policy-118129">“new dawn” </a> for South Africa.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man and a woman smile for the camera while sitting. Miniature South African and America flags are on the table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507110/original/file-20230130-14-90njg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">South African finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, meets his American counterpart, Janet Yellen, in Pretoria on 26 January.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The post-pandemic international political economy has also adversely affected the country. This has been amplified by the <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2022-08-05-donor-fatigue-could-mean-starvation-for-900000-in-west-africa/">economic impact of the Ukraine crisis </a>. Massive Western financial commitments are <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/10/council-adopts-18-billion-assistance-to-ukraine/#:%7E:text=The%20Council%20reached%20agreement%20on,its%20possible%20adoption%20next%20week">directed towards Ukraine</a>. This leaves South Africa in a vulnerable economic position as it <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.CD?locations=ZA">needs foreign development assistance</a>.</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>As our South African Foreign Policy Review volume 4 has shown, Ramaphosa’s “new dawn” <a href="https://www.hsrcpress.ac.za/books/south-african-foreign-policy-review-volume-4">has been deferred</a>. This as his party and government jump from crisis to crisis. This kind of instability often seeps into the diplomatic landscape. Investors are aware of the investment risks posed by <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">state capture</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-five-essential-reads-187111">power</a> crises.</p>
<p>Globally, the age of soft power has somewhat waned since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. South Africa needs to be proactive – not only reactive – to emerging international geostrategic conditions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-in-africa-can-it-offer-an-alternative-to-the-us-and-china-117764">Russia in Africa: can it offer an alternative to the US and China?</a>
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<p>Besides its current leadership of the <a href="https://infobrics.org/">BRICS bloc</a> (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), the country needs to be bolder. It should, for example, campaign for a fourth term <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13533312.2022.2144250?journalCode=finp20">on the UN Security Council</a>, and for leadership in multilateral organisations. In these, it can actively achieve its foreign policy objectives in support of the country’s national interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo-Ansie van Wyk has taught at the Diplomatic Academy of the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation. </span></em></p>South Africa’s foreign policy under Ramaphosa emphasises economic diplomacy and ‘progressive internationalism’, which promotes global equity and ending the dominance of the global north.Jo-Ansie van Wyk, Professor in International Politics, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805332022-04-07T12:25:17Z2022-04-07T12:25:17ZRussia is sparking new nuclear threats – understanding nonproliferation history helps place this in context<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456668/original/file-20220406-24-zj06lj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A caution sign marks the Hanford Nuclear Reservation near Richland, Wash., where plutonium for nuclear weapons was made.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/the-environmental-restoration-disposal-facility-is-seen-at-the-30-picture-id53182586?s=2048x2048">Jeff T. Green/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the 1960s, the Soviet Union and the United States came close to war over the Soviet’s attempt to install nuclear weapons <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/cuban-missile-crisis">in Cuba</a>, 90 miles off the Florida coast.</p>
<p>People in the U.S. feared nuclear war. Children practiced nuclear drills hiding under their desks. Families <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/entertainment/this-1960s-nuclear-fallout-shelter-is-a-time-capsule-to-the-past--and-offers-lessons-for-the-trump-era/2017/10/17/c2cd67ae-b367-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_video.html">built nuclear bunkers</a> in their backyards. </p>
<p>But later in the 20th century, nuclear war became less likely. Countries committed to diminishing their stockpiles of nuclear weapons, or pledged to not pursue nuclear weapons in the first place. </p>
<p>Now, after decades of progress on limiting the buildup of nuclear weapons, Russia’s war on Ukraine has prompted renewed <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-europe-6d1e374e77504838ba9ca78dd8bce46c">nuclear tensions</a> between Russia and the U.S.</p>
<p>On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/03/08/1085248170/putin-has-threatened-to-use-his-nuclear-arsenal-heres-what-its-actually-capable-">threatened</a> that any country that interfered in Ukraine would “face consequences greater than any you have faced in history.” Many experts and observers interpreted this as <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/03/29/would-russia-really-launch-nuclear-weapons">a threat of nuclear</a> attacks against Ukraine’s defenders. </p>
<p>A single nuclear weapon today in a major city <a href="https://www.icanw.org/modeling_the_effects_on_cities">could immediately kill</a> anywhere from 52,000 to several million people, depending on the weapon’s size.</p>
<p>Understanding these new threats requires an understanding of efforts to reduce the number of nuclear weapons, prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to new countries and the development or stockpiling of nuclear weapons in different countries.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/faculty-and-staff/faculty.cfm?pid=1022718">worked on</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/price-of-peace-motivated-reasoning-and-costly-signaling-in-international-relations/931AC830FEB7D24D26800E22558D9F9D">researched nuclear</a> nonproliferation for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90978-3">two decades</a>. </p>
<p>Convincing countries <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements">to reduce</a> their nuclear weapon stockpiles <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/north-korea-south-africa/539265/">or renounce</a> the pursuit of this ultimate weapon has always been extremely difficult. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Young students are seen hiding under their desks and looking out in this black and white photo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456693/original/file-20220406-20442-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students at a Brooklyn, N.Y. school conduct a nuclear attack drill in 1962.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/students-at-a-brooklyn-middle-school-have-a-duck-and-cover-practice-picture-id566420175?s=2048x2048">GraphicaArtis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A history of nonproliferation</h2>
<p>The Soviet Union, U.S., United Kingdom, France, Israel and China <a href="https://doi.org/10.2968/066004008">had active nuclear</a> weapons programs in the 1960s. </p>
<p>Countries recognized the risk of a nuclear war in the future. </p>
<p>Sixty-two countries initially agreed to what’s been called the “<a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Weiss">Grand Bargain</a>” in 1967, an essential element of the <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/">Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons</a>. One hundred and ninety-one countries eventually signed this treaty. </p>
<p>The agreement prevented the spread of nuclear weapons to countries that didn’t already have them <a href="https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/timeline/timeline1960.html">by 1967</a>. Countries with nuclear weapons, like the U.S. and the U.K., agreed to end their nuclear arms race and work toward eventual disarmament, meaning the destruction of all nuclear weapons. </p>
<p>This landmark agreement laid the groundwork for agreements between the U.S. and the Soviet Union to further reduce their nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. It also stopped other countries from developing and <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/test-ban-treaty-at-a-glance">testing</a> nuclear weapons until the end of the Cold War. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nti.org/countries/israel/">Israel</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/12/indias-nuclear-arsenal-takes-a-big-step-forward/">India</a> and <a href="https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-09/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-pakistan-have-in-2021/">Pakistan</a> never joined the agreement due to regional security concerns. They all now possess nuclear weapons. North Korea <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-05/features/npt-withdrawal-time-security-council-step">withdrew</a> and developed nuclear <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689">weapons</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-nuclear-disarmament-disarmament-777aab2d375f3d3fed15dc7519783826">Other countries gave</a> up their <a href="https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/south-africa-nuclear-disarmament/">nuclear</a> weapons, or programs to develop them. </p>
<h2>Some successes</h2>
<p>There have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2020.1824500">major achievements</a> in preventing countries from gaining nuclear weapons and dramatically reducing nuclear weapon stockpiles since the Cold War. </p>
<p>The global nuclear stockpile has been reduced by 82% since 1986, from a peak of 70,300, with nearly all of the reductions in the U.S. and Russia, who held the largest stockpiles at the time.</p>
<p><a href="https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/">Globally there</a> are now around 12,700 nuclear weapons, with about 90% held by <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat">Russia and the U.S.</a> – or between 5,000 to 6,000 weapons each.</p>
<p>There are several other countries with nuclear weapons, and most of them have a few hundred weapons each, including China, the United Kingdom and France. <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/nuclear-warheads-by-country-1945-2022/">Newer nuclear countries</a> like India, Pakistan and Israel have around 100 each, while North Korea has around 20. </p>
<p>Starting in the late 1960s, countries agreed to more <a href="https://nuke.fas.org/control/index.html">than a dozen</a> legally binding agreements, known as treaties, that limited new countries getting nuclear weapons and prohibited nuclear weapon testing, among other measures.</p>
<p>But they have not reduced the number of <a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/u-s-nonstrategic-nuclear-weapons/">nuclear weapons</a> with <a href="https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/commentary/russias-small-nukes-are-big-problem">short range</a> missiles.</p>
<p>No agreements cover <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y">these weapons</a>, which <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limited-tactical-nuclear-weapons-would-be-catastrophic/">could also cause</a> widespread destruction and deaths. Russia’s short-range weapons could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tactical-nuclear-weapons-escalation-us-russia-war-animated-strike-map-2019-9#instead-of-the-tactical-weapons-de-escalating-the-conflict-as-proponents-claim-they-would-the-simulation-shows-conflict-spiraling-out-of-control-after-the-use-of-tactical-weapons-3">quickly destroy</a> much of Europe. </p>
<p>The U.S. and Russia have still worked together on reducing nuclear weapons, despite fighting many proxy wars in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/maghis/article-abstract/14/3/20/1015741?redirectedFrom=PDF">Korea</a>, <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/soviet-invasion-afghanistan">Afghanistan</a> <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1996-09-01/soviet-union-and-vietnam-war">and Vietnam</a> at the same time.</p>
<p>They have also jointly <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Security-Council-Resolutions-on-Iran">pressured Iran</a>, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/UN-Security-Council-Resolutions-on-North-Korea">North Korea</a> and Libya to renounce their efforts to develop nuclear weapons, with some success in <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/05/iran-nuclear-deal-russia-ukraine/">Iran</a> <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/LibyaChronology">and Libya</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people wearing suits have large cut out faces of Putin and Joe Biden, They both hold fake ballistic missiles high above their heads." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456664/original/file-20220406-14533-6aj5iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peace protesters wear masks of Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden with mock nuclear missiles to call for more nuclear disarmament on Jan. 29, 2021, in Berlin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/peace-activists-wearing-masks-of-russian-president-vladimir-putin-and-picture-id1230850574?s=2048x2048">John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>U.S.-Russia cooperation declines</h2>
<p>U.S.-Russia engagement on nuclear weapons changed when Russia forcibly <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">annexed Crimea</a> from Ukraine in 2014. </p>
<p>Russia built up land <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russias-controversial-9m729-missile-system-a-not-so-secret-secret/a-46606193">missiles</a> in <a href="https://baltic-review.com/defence-lithuania-is-preparing-for-a-russian-invasion/kaliningrad-map/">Kaliningrad</a>, an enclave of Russia in the middle of Eastern Europe, in 2014.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand key political developments, each week.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s politics newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2014-09/news/russia-breaches-inf-treaty-us-says">U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46443672">NATO</a> then accused Russia of violating a <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty">1987 nuclear agreement</a> on short- and intermediate-range land missiles. From Russia, these could travel between 500 to 5,500 kilometers (311 to 3,418 miles), hitting targets as far as London. </p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/u-s-withdrawal-from-the-inf-treaty-on-august-2-2019/index.html">also terminated</a> this agreement in 2019 due to Russian violations. Now, there are no international nuclear agreements in Europe. </p>
<p>Yet, the main strategic nuclear weapons agreement, known as <a href="https://www.state.gov/new-start/">New START</a>, remains in place, and will stay so <a href="https://www.state.gov/on-the-extension-of-the-new-start-treaty-with-the-russian-federation/">until at least 2026</a>.</p>
<h2>Impact of Ukraine war</h2>
<p>While Putin has not followed through on <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/">his threat</a> of a nuclear strike, the potential for a nuclear attack has meant the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/3/13/22975269/ukraine-poland-us-mig-fighter-jets-military-aid-escalation">U.S.</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18023383">NATO response to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine</a> has landed far short of direct engagement. </p>
<p>This is the first time that nuclear threats have been used <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-de-escalation-russias-deterrence-strategy/">by one country that’s invaded another country</a> rather than to defend a country. </p>
<p>It also marks a step <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Korea%20Nuclear%20Report%20PDF.pdf">backward</a> in international work to reduce the threat of nuclear war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Srinivasan Rathbun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite decades of progress on nonproliferation, Russia’s new threats of nuclear strikes bring to mind that convincing countries to reduce their nuclear weapons has long been very difficult.Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, Professor of international relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781192022-03-16T14:17:39Z2022-03-16T14:17:39ZBig Pharma vs. Little Cuba: Why Cubans trust vaccines and how they’re helping vaccinate the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451035/original/file-20220309-25-tsuuxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C7976%2C5257&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A ground crew member directs the loading of a shipment of Cuba's homegrown COVID-19 vaccines donated to Syria, on the tarmac of the Jose Marti International Airport, in Havana, on Jan. 7, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo / Ramon Espinosa)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vaccines could be saving the world from COVID-19, but they aren’t. Almost everywhere, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/28/22405279/covid-19-vaccine-india-covax">vaccine access</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-better-conversations-can-help-reduce-vaccine-hesitancy-for-covid-19-and-other-shots-159321">vaccine hesitancy</a> are our Achilles heels.</p>
<p>Vaccine access <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/2/266">correlates to GDP</a>, and higher income countries can strike deals with pharmaceutical companies. Vaccination programs also deploy less of these countries’ health-care budgets — <a href="https://data.undp.org/vaccine-equity/affordability/">0.8 per cent versus 56.6 per cent for lower-income countries</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-push-for-coronavirus-vaccine-sovereignty-160551">Cuba's push for coronavirus vaccine sovereignty</a>
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<p>By <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2021/03/31/cubas-five-covid-19-vaccines-the-full-story-on-soberana-01-02-plus-abdala-and-mambisa/">developing and administering its own vaccines</a>, Cuba has ensured affordable coverage (<a href="https://data.undp.org/vaccine-equity/affordability/">0.84 per cent of health-care costs</a>), despite the United States embargo <a href="https://www.wola.org/sites/default/files/downloadable/Cuba/past/cuba_myths_facts.pdf">blocking medical supplies</a>, including <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/cuba-says-u-s-embargo-obstacle-getting-coronavirus-fighting-supplies-n1181711">during the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>That same blockade is <a href="https://www.radiobayamo.icrt.cu/2022/01/31/eeuu-bloquea-pagos-a-cuba-por-exportacion-de-vacunas-contra-covid-19/">impeding vaccine export from Cuba</a> and has risked <a href="https://mediccreview.org/open-letter-to-president-biden-about-covid-vaccines-for-cuba/">thwarting vaccine import to the island</a>. Despite these challenges, Cuba is now one of the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">most vaccinated countries in the world</a>.</p>
<h2>Cuba’s public health</h2>
<p>Vaccine hesitancy is rare in Cuba. Its COVID-19 policies and practices are fundamentally science-based. The Cuban government is garnering public support by protecting its citizens from grave illness and death; one of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK221231/">governments’ primary mandates</a>. </p>
<p>This small nation blocked an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cubas-vaccine-coverage-focus-children-helped-beat-back-omicron-experts-say-2022-02-17/">Omicron spike through its vaccinations</a> and social hygiene measures. </p>
<p>Not-for-profit and universal, Cuba’s public health incorporates standardized, robust immunization schedules that have been <a href="https://medanthroquarterly.org/rapid-response/2020/12/pfizer-and-the-sovereign-cubas-covid19-vaccine-offers-an-interesting-counterpoint-to-the-pfizer-roll-out-in-the-us/">the norm for decades</a>. Many medicines and vaccines in the country are created by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0u6uvNp5RPQ">publicly funded national labs</a>. </p>
<p>Factual, positive analysis on Cuba typically <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/bernie-sanders-hammered-by-democrats-over-fidel-castro-defense.html">draws fire</a> internationally, with critics objecting that its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/03/us-cuban-twitter-zunzuneo-stir-unrest">government controls information</a>. </p>
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<img alt="A girl sits on a hospital bed, wearing a face mask with her legs crossed. A clown wearing yellow entertains her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451346/original/file-20220310-23-2lb7a2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A girl is entertained by clowns as she waits after being injected with a dose of the Soberana-02 vaccine for COVID-19 in Havana, Cuba, in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)</span></span>
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<h2>Why Cubans trust vaccines</h2>
<p>In December 2021 and January 2022, I asked open-ended questions directly to 40 Cuban residents — acquaintances, colleagues and friends from my more than 20 years studying Cuban culture and, since 2020, Cuba’s COVID-19 response. </p>
<p>In January and February, I collected 40 anonymous responses via a VoIP survey with the assistance of my colleague Alejandro Mestre. While not statistically representative, this study is indicative. Every respondent — even government naysayers — wanted to be vaccinated. </p>
<p>As she rubbed the veins of her inner forearm, an office worker joked: “Yes, everyone has confidence in the vaccines. You know, sometimes I think, because the Cuban doctors know us, the vaccines have a component of us in them.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-scene-from-cuba-how-its-getting-so-much-right-on-covid-19-155699">The scene from Cuba: How it's getting so much right on COVID-19</a>
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<p>This widespread, popular confidence is based on lived experience. </p>
<p>Since the 1960s, Cubans have followed a <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo9733558.html">robust vaccine scheme</a> from childhood onward, with the subsequent experience of protection from contagious disease. In one respondent’s words, “I am not sure of the effectiveness of this vaccine, nevertheless, I know that in my country we have been making globally recognized vaccines for many years.” </p>
<p>Residents often compare Cuba with other countries. Many have travelled abroad, including those in the <a href="https://peoplesdispatch.org/tag/henry-reeve-brigade/">Henry Reeve Brigade</a> — a group of Cuban medical professionals, deployed worldwide during major health crises with the mission of international medical solidarity — and confronted deadly outbreaks <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00159-6">like COVID-19</a>. Many also have loved ones abroad and see the difference between the low contagion rates in their country versus the higher rates in countries without <a href="https://ww.democracynow.org/shows/2021/4/9">widespread vaccination</a>.</p>
<p>Inhabitants of this tropical, middle-income island have personal experiences with infectious diseases, including meningitis (Cuba developed <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32335565/">a vaccine</a>) and dengue (Cuba developed public health measures and a medication, <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-04-24/cuba-from-aids-dengue-and-ebola-to-covid-19/">interferon alpha-2b</a>).</p>
<h2>Why Cubans trust vaccines: Clear messaging</h2>
<p>Messaging about the benefits of vaccination, and other public health practices, for individual and societal good is clear and constant in Cuba.</p>
<p>It includes news briefings from the national director of epidemiology, <a href="https://mediccreview.org/stemming-covid-19-in-cuba-strengths-strategies-challenges/">Dr. Francisco Duran</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-scene-from-cuba-how-its-getting-so-much-right-on-covid-19-155699">infomercials, popular songs and billboards</a> and human-focused documentaries about doctors in COVID-19 wards like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsmntxeBkt4"><em>Volverán los abrazos</em> (hugs will return)</a> and on the scientists developing vaccines, like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEtlZbWy8e0"><em>Soberanía</em> (which means sovereignty)</a>. Further, the respondents of my inquiry believe that Cubans don’t pay much attention to fake news about vaccines that arrives from abroad via social media.</p>
<p>Although not mandated, vaccination is the norm. Primary care providers must obtain an informed consent waiver from patients who decline inoculation and there is peer pressure. </p>
<p>One interviewee wrote, “In the situation in which this pandemic has placed the world, there is no space not to get vaccinated. It is very egotistical.” Another added, “The liberty of every person must not curtail the liberty of others.” </p>
<p>Most Cubans trust in the expertise of their densely woven and interconnected web of health services. “In Cuba, one might die from lack of specialized machines or medicine, but not from lack of specialized, human care,” said one respondent. </p>
<p>Even Cubans who are skeptical of their government in other areas stated that the only reason for Cuban medical experts to do their work is to save lives. In contrast, many talked about how financial interests play into health care in other countries, making it potentially less trustworthy.</p>
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<img alt="Two movie posters, the one on the right depicts a small island with dancers in the background, the one on the left depicts two masked people breathing the same air" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451353/original/file-20220310-27-i5vybl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Two recent Cuban documentaries, ‘Volverán los abrazos’ which embeds viewers in the daily lives of COVID ward doctors early on in the pandemic. ‘Soberanía’ follows the challenges and triumphs of scientists developing vaccines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(ICAIC)</span></span>
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<h2>Cuba’s vaccine rollout</h2>
<p>In Cuba, the <a href="https://www.granma.cu/cuba-covid-19/2022-01-25/concluida-la-vacunacion-pediatrica-ningun-nino-cubano-ha-fallecido-25-01-2022-22-01-40">immunization campaign continues</a>. Cuba began <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/01/cuba-leads-world-vaccinating-children">vaccinating children two years and older</a> in September 2021, well before most other — and much richer — countries. It’s now running Phase 2 clinical trials with children <a href="https://www.juventudrebelde.cu/cuba/2022-01-25/cuba-desarrolla-vacunas-anti-covid-19-para-menores-de-dos-anos">under age two</a>. </p>
<p>Cuba is <a href="http://mediccreview.org/cuban-covid-19-vaccines-for-children/">not putting its children at risk</a>; it’s using <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-covid-vaccines-the-limited-data-available-suggests-theyre-highly-effective-172725?">time-tested research</a> — vaccine platforms used previously for other vaccines — to ensure everyone gets vaccinated as quickly and as safely as possible. </p>
<p>And, while <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-health-products/covid19-industry/drugs-vaccines-treatments/vaccines/protein-subunit.html">subunit vaccines</a> are considered <a href="https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/protein-based-covid-19-vaccines-could-overshadow-rivals/4012450.article">slow to create</a> and the U.S. embargo slowed development and rollout, Cuba beat <a href="https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2022/01/30/new-triumphs-struggles-for-non-profit-covid-vaxes/">other protein subunit vaccines to the finish line</a>. </p>
<p>Developers of U.S.-based Corbevax <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/15/corbevax-covid-vaccine-texas-scientists">scrambled for investors </a> to enable research and development, while Cuban national labs simply pivoted to meet the need. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/corbevax-a-new-patent-free-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-a-pandemic-game-changer-globally-174672">CORBEVAX, a new patent-free COVID-19 vaccine, could be a pandemic game changer globally</a>
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<p>Subunit vaccines have <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-push-for-coronavirus-vaccine-sovereignty-160551">incredible promise as workhorses</a>. Although <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/04/1070338017/this-new-low-cost-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-a-game-changer-for-low-income-countr">harder to tweak</a> than mRNA, they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addr.2021.01.001">cheaper, less finicky and have much longer track records</a>, the latter of which is particularly relevant for <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2021/1/28/covid_19_vaccination_rollout_peter_hotez">vaccinating children</a>. </p>
<p>While Cubans <a href="http://mediccreview.org/vaccines-public-trust-containing-covid19-cuba/">trust their health experts</a>, the international pharmaceutical industry’s <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/sickening-john-abramson?variant=39935390089250">track record</a> — recently with <a href="https://qz.com/1940201/pharma-companies-biggest-covid-19-profits-may-be-in-reputation/">their role in the opioid crisis</a> — is <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2019/02/26/anti-vaccine-movement-pharma-tarnished-reputation/">fuelling popular skepticism</a> towards vaccines, also <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/16/967011614/in-tuskegee-painful-history-shadows-efforts-to-vaccinate-african-americans">among minority groups</a>.</p>
<p>The idea that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/10/01/katalin-kariko-covid-vaccines/">market-driven innovation</a> facilitated mRNA technology is misleading. Hungarian-American biochemist <a href="https://www.pennmedicine.org/providers/profile/katalin-kariko">Katalin Kariko</a>, whose research <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3im3cirkJqc">enabled mRNA vaccines</a> and who is a <a href="https://hungarytoday.hu/swedish-academy-katalin-kariko-did-not-win-nobel-prize/">contender for a Nobel Prize</a>, struggled for funding, <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2021/02/finland-vaccine-covid-patent-ip">as have other innovators</a>. </p>
<p>Cuba continues working to stop the pandemic, <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2022/1/27/cuba_beat_covid_despite_us_embargo">exporting vaccines and transferring production technology</a> to countries including Argentina, Bolivia, Iran, Mexico, Nicaragua, Syria, Venezuela and Vietnam. It’s acting on the scientific fact that humanity will be safest when all who can be vaccinated are vaccinated. Cuba is following the science and earning its <a href="https://socialistproject.ca/2020/04/cuba-unique-model-of-medical-internationalism/">trusted reputation</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Ruth Hosek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuba is acting on the scientific fact that humanity will be safest when all who can be vaccinated are vaccinated. It is following the science and earning its trusted reputation.Jennifer Ruth Hosek, Professor, Languages, Literatures and Cultures, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1787012022-03-14T12:21:41Z2022-03-14T12:21:41ZThe promise and folly of war – why do leaders enter conflict assuming victory is assured?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451699/original/file-20220312-20-1nbmy6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C223%2C4125%2C2521&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">V is for victory? Or vanquished? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russian-president-vladimir-putin-speaks-during-his-press-news-photo/1233489401?adppopup=true">Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amid a staunch and passionate defense that has slowed the Russian advance to Kiev and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote">global condemnation</a>, Vladimir Putin’s motivation for invading has been subject to speculation: Just what does he hope to achieve by war in Ukraine?</p>
<p>Some have argued that Putin was responding to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine">NATO expansion</a> or was driven by a compelling sense of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/23/22945781/russia-ukraine-putin-speech-transcript-february-22">Russian nationalism</a>. Others maintain he saw an opportunity to revive Cold War <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-eastern-europe.html">Soviet influence</a> in Eastern Europe. Still others claim he is simply <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/2/putins-imperial-delusions-will-haunt-russia">delusional</a>, an oligarch divorced from reality.</p>
<p>But what if Putin’s decision to invade was based partly on a commonly held assumption that offensive wars of choice, more often than not, will deliver?</p>
<p>It’s worth evaluating if this war is as much about <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia">local and regional questions</a> over who controls the eastern Ukraine Donbas region as it is about an unquestioning faith that using armed force is the surest path to achieving one’s political aims. </p>
<p>Some U.S. foreign policy analysts, like the University of Chicago’s <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine">John Mearsheimer</a>, contend that American support of NATO’s eastward expansion is just as important in explaining the current crisis in Ukraine.</p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://history.sdsu.edu/people/daddis">military historian</a> who served in the U.S. Army for 26 years, I believe a more fundamental question is why policymakers, not just in Russia, have so much faith in war when even small miscalculations can lead so easily to disaster.</p>
<h2>War’s promise</h2>
<p>War’s promise has enticed political and military leaders for millenia. The Athenian historian <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Landmark_Thucydides/pjt3ZGU61wIC?hl=en&gbpv=1">Thucydides</a> spoke of Greek city-states motivated to war by honor and profit – as well as fear of their enemies.</p>
<p>Roughly 2,200 years later, America’s <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/whirlwind-9781620401729/">Founding Fathers</a> saw war as the surest way to break from British imperial control, to forge a new identity free from external influence and to create a sovereign nation. It would take a major civil war less than 100 years later to decide – though surely not settle – similar questions for African Americans enslaved by those same revolutionaries and their descendants.</p>
<p>The spoils of war can be great: independence, increased power, and land and resources.</p>
<p>And yet for every military success, the historical record offers ample instances that should give pause. <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_First_Total_War/Q7hTNQAACAAJ?hl=en">Napoleon</a>, for example, may have been on the precipice of near total European control in the early 1800s. But the same instrument of mass armies that brought him to such heights assured his downfall when wielded by a coalition of rival continental powers.</p>
<p>In two world wars a century later, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/germany-hitler-and-world-war-ii/890B562782C3A8161FDB65EA51E1BF3C">German leaders</a> envisioned a new world order delivered by grand military victories. The results, however, left tens of millions dead across the globe and a twice-defeated Germany seeking redemption and relevance during the Cold War.</p>
<p>During those post-World War II decades, French military forces would face defeat in <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/dien-bien-phu#:%7E:text=On%20May%207%2C%201954%2C%20the,pulled%20out%20of%20the%20region">Indochina</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Algeria/3efpuozCiWYC?hl=en">Algeria</a>, the Americans a similar fate in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/29/opinion/ken-burns-vietnam-lessons.html">South Vietnam</a>, and the Soviets in <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/jcws/article-abstract/11/4/46/13115/Decision-Making-and-the-Soviet-War-in-Afghanistan">Afghanistan</a>. Wagering on war clearly wasn’t always a safe bet.</p>
<h2>The lure of armed victory</h2>
<p>What makes war seemingly worth these inescapable risks? Perhaps it is the conviction that armed victory is the ultimate decider within any international political arena.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9780807859582/a-failed-empire/">Cold War era</a>, Soviet leaders from Josef Stalin to Leonid Brezhnev relied on war, and the threat of war, to compete globally with the United States. In practical terms, brutal Soviet military incursions into <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469667485/hungarys-cold-war/">Hungary</a> in 1956 and <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739143063/The-Prague-Spring-and-the-Warsaw-Pact-Invasion-of-Czechoslovakia-in-1968">Czechoslovakia</a> in 1968 seemed the most efficient means of keeping Eastern European satellites within the Warsaw Pact orbit. It appears that Putin reviewed his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/24/putin-military-success-ukraine-invasion-riskiest-yet/">recent successes</a> in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria as a harbinger of victory in Ukraine.</p>
<p>But flexing military muscles comes at a cost. The placement of Soviet missiles in <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393540819">Cuba</a> in the early 1960s brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. The costs of maintaining an enormous Cold War army and navy enfeebled an already unstable <a href="https://uncpress.org/book/9781469630175/the-struggle-to-save-the-soviet-economy/">Soviet economy</a>. And, without question, the long war in <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Afgantsy/q9doAgAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1">Afghanistan</a> contributed to the ultimate demise of the Soviet empire as the Cold War itself drew to its close.</p>
<h2>Motivations for war</h2>
<p>So, what perspectives can we gain from this devotion to war’s promise?</p>
<p>First, the moral aspects of choosing war matter. As philosopher Michael Walzer contends, there often is a thin line between offensive wars of choice and criminal <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Just-Unjust-Wars-Historical-Illustrations/dp/0465052711/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1FE4634JGUHTP&keywords=Walzer+just+war&qid=1646603938&sprefix=walzer+just+war%2Caps%2C125&sr=8-1">acts of aggression</a>. I believe more Americans need to spend time considering where these lines may be drawn; there’s a great deal of <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/76408/afghanistan-war-obama-bacevich">moral illiteracy</a> about the causes of America’s wars and its conduct in fighting them.</p>
<p>Writing about the justness of the U.S. war in Iraq, journalist Matt Peterson wrote in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/iraq-war-ethics/556448/">The Atlantic</a> that “There’s a broader sense of moral confusion about the conduct of America’s wars.” Putin’s assault on Ukraine serves as a reminder that people should examine more deeply their nation’s stated reasons – and stated justifications – for going to war.</p>
<p>The assumption that war is a transformative force that engenders political and social change also has not always proved true. When the George W. Bush administration decided to invade Iraq in 2003, key advisers saw an opportunity to <a href="https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/10192/limits-us-military-capability">transform Iraqi governance and society</a>. Yet local leaders proved far more resistant to external change than these policymakers foresaw, which was also the case in the Afghan and Vietnam wars. In Ukraine, Putin seems also to have miscalculated the strength of local opposition.</p>
<h2>The costs of war</h2>
<p>Indeed, many modern conflicts have illustrated that victory is not quickly and cheaply achieved. At the end of his presidency, <a href="https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/evan-thomas/ikes-bluff/9780316224161/">Dwight D. Eisenhower</a> counseled about the hidden costs of a military-industrial complex feeding an enduring state of war. His fears appear to have been realized. The <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/papers/2021/ProfitsOfWar">Costs of War</a> project at Brown University calculated that the Pentagon has spent “over $14 trillion since the start of the war in Afghanistan, with one-third to one-half of the total going to military contractors.” That war <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-business-afghanistan-43d8f53b35e80ec18c130cd683e1a38f">killed</a> at least 47,000 Afghan civilians and more than 6,000 American service members and contractors.</p>
<p>All this raises a reasonable question over whether the benefits of these wars have been worth the tremendous financial and human costs.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>As the world follows the unfolding tragedy in Ukraine, I believe it important to consider the enduring, yet faulty promise of war.</p>
<p>Athenian history might be a good place to start. As <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Landmark_Thucydides/pjt3ZGU61wIC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=common%20mistake%20in%20war">Thucydides</a> cautioned, “It is a common mistake in going to war to begin at the wrong end, to act first, and wait for disasters to discuss the matter.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory A. Daddis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A military historian and U.S. Army veteran explains how wars are not easy to win – something political leaders often forget when looking at the calculus of conflict.Gregory A. Daddis, Professor and USS Midway Chair in Modern U.S. Military History, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1783562022-03-06T12:15:09Z2022-03-06T12:15:09ZUkraine invasion: Why Canada should rethink its approach to economic sanctions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449928/original/file-20220303-3137-1fp7md3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4854%2C3221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women look at a screen displaying exchange rate at a currency exchange office in St. Petersburg, Russia. The Russian currency has plunged against the U.S. dollar after the West imposed severe economic sanctions. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Western countries have imposed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659">massive sanctions</a> against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/economic-sanctions-too-much-of-a-bad-thing/">West has increasingly relied on economic sanctions</a> to punish or change the policies of foreign governments in the last several decades. The conventional wisdom is that economic sanctions are an effective and peaceful foreign policy tool.</p>
<p>Some sanctions regimes, such as the current effort against Russia, may be both effective and lawful. </p>
<p>But as I explored in a <a href="https://rideauinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Martin_RI_Econ_Sanctions_Ottawa_2021.pdf">recent research report</a>, some economic sanctions may violate international law principles, including those the sanctions are intended to enforce. They may therefore undermine the very legal regimes that Canadians like to champion.</p>
<h2>The nature of economic sanctions</h2>
<p>Many economic sanctions are authorized by the United Nations Security Council or regional organizations. But countries are increasingly imposing sanctions without such <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/sanctions-law-9781509900145/">legal authority</a>. It’s these so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/aju.2019.20">unilateral or autonomous sanctions</a> that raise legal questions.</p>
<p>Economic sanctions typically involve a mix of trade restraints, constraints on financial transactions and travel restrictions. These may take the form of broad <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/report/57jqap.htm">trade and financial embargoes (like against Iraq in the 1990s</a>) or they may target certain industries or sectors (like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1179/204243410X12674422128957">arms embargo against South Africa in the 1970s</a>).</p>
<p>While countries are the primary target, there is an increasing deployment of so-called targeted sanctions against people and companies within the target state as a means of exerting pressure on the government (like the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/sanctions-programs-and-country-information/global-magnitsky-sanctions">Magnitsky sanctions against Russian oligarchs</a>).</p>
<p>The United States has also imposed secondary or extra-territorial sanctions against countries other than the primary target, and even against individuals and companies outside of the target state, to deter business with the target state (like the <a href="https://mcmillan.ca/insights/the-next-wave-of-us-extraterritorial-sanctions-regarding-cuba-potential-impacts-for-canadian-companies/">Helms-Burton sanctions relating to Cuba</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men sit in the sun with empty fuel tanks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449929/original/file-20220303-17-djtw89.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Men wait for a cooking gas store to open as they sit with their empty canisters in Havana in early 2020. The Cuban government warned citizens to prepare for shortages of cooking gas due to U.S. sanctions on the island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ismael Francisco)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Human rights objections</h2>
<p>But there is <a href="http://bostonreview.net/war-security-politics-global-justice/asl%C4%B1-u-b%C3%A2li-aziz-rana-sanctions-are-inhumane%E2%80%94now-and-always">growing criticism</a> that comprehensive sanctions may inflict serious harm and suffering on the people of the target state. The sanctions against <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1994/01/09/world/un-sanctions-led-to-400000-deaths-ministry-in-iraq-says.html">Iraq in the 1990s</a> are thought to have contributed to tens of thousands of deaths. </p>
<p>More recently, the American sanctions against Iran <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/iran-the-double-jeopardy-of-sanctions-and-covid-19/">may have caused</a> increased loss of life during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Whether states have human rights obligations to the people of other countries is a matter of some debate. But there is an emerging recognition that, at a minimum, comprehensive economic sanctions that significantly impact food security within the target state would constitute a violation of human rights law. </p>
<p>Recent developments therefore require sanctions include <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/175/175-20181003-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf">humanitarian safeguards and exemptions</a> for food and medical supplies, though these are often ineffective.</p>
<p><a href="https://curia.europa.eu/juris/liste.jsf?num=C-402/05">International courts</a> have also ruled that it’s a violation of human rights not to provide people subjected to targeted sanctions with reasons and a process for challenging their sanctions. </p>
<h2>Unlawful intervention</h2>
<p>Economic sanctions may also violate the principle of non-intervention that prohibits countries from engaging in coercive interference in the internal affairs of other states. What kind of pressure exactly comprises coercive interference is <a href="https://doi.org/10.7574/cjicl.04.03.616">debated and somewhat unsettled</a> in international law.</p>
<p>Western states have consistently maintained that economic sanctions do not comprise unlawful intervention. The well-established practice of employing sanctions would tend to corroborate that view. But the developing world has long held that economic sanctions are not only a form of unlawful intervention, but a perpetuation of imperialistic policies against countries of the Global South.</p>
<p>There is a growing body of <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/3dda1f104.html">soft law</a>, such as UN resolutions, that condemn autonomous economic sanctions as a “means of political and economic coercion.” Canada has even supported some of <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2002/ga10083.doc.htm">these resolutions</a>. But sanctions that are designed to bring about regime change, as with the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2019-04-29/sanctions-cant-spark-regime-change">U.S. measures against Venezuela</a>, are coercive in nature.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a baseball cap holds up a sign that says Yankee Go Home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449930/original/file-20220303-23-iuag2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 2015 photo, a protester holds up an anti-U.S. poster of Uncle Sam during a pro-government rally at Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, after the U.S. imposed sanctions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Secondary sanctions</h2>
<p>There are also objections to the American practice of imposing secondary sanctions against third-party states, and companies and people outside the target state. </p>
<p>There is a basic prohibition in international law, with a few specific exceptions, against the extra-territorial application of domestic law. Secondary sanctions will <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bybil/advance-article/doi/10.1093/bybil/braa007/5909823">frequently violate this principle</a>.</p>
<p>Canada has been caught up in such secondary sanctions, from the <a href="https://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/cuba/highlights-faits/2019/2019-04-18-helms-burton.aspx?lang=eng.">Helms-Burton Act</a> sanctions against Canadian businesses in Cuba to Canada’s detainment, at the behest of the United States, of <a href="https://asialawportal.com/2021/02/19/tracing-the-origins-of-the-case-against-huawei-cfo-meng-wanzhou-how-global-banks-extend-the-reach-of-u-s-extraterritorial-jurisdiction-directly-and-indirectly-impacting-the-global-expansion-of-chin/">a Huawei executive</a> for violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.</p>
<p>Canada and other western countries have even <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/f-29/index.html.">enacted legislation</a> to block American secondary sanctions.</p>
<h2>Canadian sanctions</h2>
<p>Canada has <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/sanctions/legislation-lois.aspx?lang=eng">several laws in place</a> to implement sanctions. While the <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/u-2/index.html">United Nations Act</a> is specifically for implementing UN-authorized sanctions, the Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA) and the Justice for Victims of Corrupt Foreign Officials Act (the Magnitsky Law), provide for autonomous sanctions regimes.</p>
<p>Canada has sanctions under SEMA against 13 countries for human rights violations. It also has sanctions against Iran and North Korea for nuclear non-proliferation, and it had sanctions against both Russia and Ukraine even before the recent invasion. Canada has targeted sanctions in place against people in states that include Russia, Venezuela and Myanmar under the Magnitsky Law for human rights violations.</p>
<p>Canada has not engaged in secondary sanctions, and so isn’t vulnerable to criticism on this front. <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/commentary/doc/2017CanLIIDocs119#!fragment//BQCwhgziBcwMYgK4DsDWszIQewE4BUBTADwBdoByCgSgBpltTCIBFRQ3AT0otokLC4EbDtyp8BQkAGU8pAELcASgFEAMioBqAQQByAYRW1SYAEbRS2ONWpA">Some scholars</a> <a href="https://umanitoba.ca/centres/media/Canadian-Economic-Sanctions-Workshop_finalreport_Nov-2019.pdf">have suggested</a> that Canada should actually consider being more aggressive in this regard. But Canada has been wise not to follow the U.S. down this increasingly controversial path. Indeed, Canada itself <a href="https://www.canadainternational.gc.ca/cuba/highlights-faits/2019/2019-04-18-helms-burton.aspx?lang=eng">has objected</a> to U.S. secondary sanctions.</p>
<p>Some autonomous Canadian sanctions are more vulnerable to criticism on human rights and intervention grounds. Sanctions against <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/sanctions/iran.aspx?lang=eng">Iran until 2016</a> and <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/sanctions/venezuela.aspx?lang=eng">against Venezuela</a> as part of U.S. sanctions regimes were quite comprehensive in their scope. These multilateral sanctions regimes may be viewed as coercive, and may undermine the food security and public health of the target populations. </p>
<p>Unlike the European Union, Canada doesn’t provide due process rights to individuals targeted for sanctions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bald boy is seen in silhouette as he looks out a window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449933/original/file-20220303-8354-rhndvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A five-year-old Iranian boy suffering from eye cancer sits in a hospital in Tehran. From imported chemo and other medicines, many Iranians blame medical shortages on U.S. sanctions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Champion of human rights?</h2>
<p>Canada has traditionally viewed itself as a <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/human_rights-droits_homme/advancing_rights-promouvoir_droits.aspx?lang=eng">champion of human rights</a> and the international rule of law. It also casts itself as a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/1016956/mandelas-deep-respect-for-canada-mulroney/">friend of the developing world</a>.</p>
<p>It should therefore be sensitive to claims that some of its sanctions may violate international human rights law and constitute unlawful intervention in states of the Global South. </p>
<p>Aside from the apparent hypocrisy, there’s also a risk that Canada could undermine the international law principles that it seeks to champion and betray the broader legal and ethical values that are part of Canada’s sense of identity in the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Martin received some funding from the Rideau Institute for the research on economic sanctions reflected in the referenced report. The research was independent and the funding was not conditioned upon any specific findings or conclusions. Martin is a Senior Fellow at the Rideau Institute. </span></em></p>Some economic sanctions may violate international law principles, including those the sanctions are intended to enforce. They may therefore undermine the very legal regimes Canadians champion.Craig Martin, Professor of Law, Washburn UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1778792022-02-24T22:48:41Z2022-02-24T22:48:41ZWhat are false flag attacks – and did Russia stage any to claim justification for invading Ukraine?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448405/original/file-20220224-13-1ii1q5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5166%2C3441&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A military vehicle destroyed on Feb. 18, 2022, by an explosion in Donetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian separatists.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/car-blown-up-on-a-parking-lot-outside-a-government-building-news-photo/1238595237">Nikolai Trishin\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Russian assault on Ukraine, which began in the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, was launched after weeks of Russian disinformation that included false claims about Ukrainian terrorist attacks, assaults on civilians and military aggression against the self-proclaimed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine.</p>
<p>Observers have been on the lookout for a Russian “false flag” attack, a highly visible event that Russia could use as justification for taking military action. False flag attacks are attacks by a government on its own forces to create the appearance of hostile action by an opponent, allowing the government to broadcast images to the world of its opponent’s supposed actions.</p>
<p>The Kremlin and pro-government propagandists on television and social media have put out a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-media-cites-videos-maybe-pretext-invade-ukraine-2022-2">variety of claims</a> accusing Ukraine of carrying out bombings, blaming Ukraine for nonexistent attacks and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/business/russia-has-been-laying-groundwork-online-for-a-false-flag-operation-misinformation-researchers-say.html">warning</a> of nefarious future Ukrainian and Western plots, including false flag operations. The claims include a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-official-accused-russia-car-bombing-rebel-held-ukraine-2022-2">car bombing</a> and an <a href="https://tass.com/emergencies/1405995">alleged attempt by Ukrainian saboteurs</a> to blow up a chemical storage facility, both in separatist eastern Ukraine. The messaging is meant to create an impression of a Ukrainian onslaught and impending humanitarian crisis.</p>
<p>If Russia attempted actual false flag attacks, they were one element of a larger campaign to build a narrative about Ukrainian “provocations” – unwarranted actions that require a defensive and retaliatory response. Putin invoked this logic in his memorable <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/23/fact-checking-putins-speech-ukraine/">speech that delivered his justifications for an invasion</a>.</p>
<p>Yet even in that speech, which was laden with dubious historical claims, pent-up grievances and false accusations about the Ukrainian government, the recent upsurge in fighting in the Donbas region registered almost as an afterthought. This is in contrast to Russia’s invasion in the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/08/the-august-war-ten-years-on-a-retrospective-on-the-russo-georgian-war/">2008 war with Georgia</a>, which the Kremlin justified in terms of protecting “its” citizens from Georgian attacks. Given the lack of the pretense of a plausible rationale, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Kremlin is unconcerned about how the world views its invasion.</p>
<h2>Capturing the (false) flag</h2>
<p>In the past few weeks, U.S. officials have warned <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-belarus-jens-stoltenberg-43c9151532de706a2edec5684dfcf07d">several</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/13/ukraine-invasion-false-flag-00008470">times</a> that Russia planned a false flag attack. Such an operation, they alleged, would give Russia the pretext to invade Ukraine by provoking shock and outrage.</p>
<p>By exposing this plan, the Biden administration sought to undermine its emotional power and stop the Kremlin from manufacturing a casus belli, or justification for war.</p>
<p>But false flag attacks aren’t what they used to be. With satellite photos and live video on the ground <a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-is-revolutionizing-how-intelligence-is-gathered-and-analyzed-and-opening-a-window-onto-russian-military-activity-around-ukraine-176446">shared widely and instantly on the internet</a> – and with journalists and armchair sleuths joining intelligence professionals in analyzing the information – it’s difficult to get away with false flag attacks today. And with the prevalence of disinformation campaigns, manufacturing a justification for war doesn’t require the expense or risk of a false flag – let alone an actual attack.</p>
<h2>The long history of false flag attacks</h2>
<p>Both false flag attacks and allegations that states engage in them have a long history. The term originated to describe pirates’ wielding of friendly (and false) flags to lure merchant ships close enough to attack. It was later used as a label for any attack – real or simulated – that the instigators inflict against “friendly” forces to incriminate an adversary and create the basis for retaliation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a large open-frame tower in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gleiwitz incident involved Nazi operatives staging an attack on a radio station near the Polish border in 1939 and blaming the attack on the Polish government as an excuse to invade Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler#/media/File:Sender_gliwice.jpg">Grimmi59 rade/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 20th century, there were several prominent episodes involving false flag operations. In 1939, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120314190818/http:/www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/6106566/World-War-IIs-first-victim.html">agents from Nazi Germany</a> broadcast anti-German messages from a German radio station near the Polish border. They also murdered several civilians whom they dressed in Polish military uniforms to create a pretext for Germany’s planned invasion of Poland. </p>
<p>That same year, the Soviet Union <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/A_Frozen_Hell/yXsLNVaDfcoC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=Mainila">detonated shells</a> in Soviet territory near the Finnish border and blamed Finland, which it then proceeded to invade. </p>
<p>The U.S. has also been implicated in similar plots. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=92662&page=1">Operation Northwoods</a> was a proposal to kill Americans and blame the attack on Castro, thereby granting the military the pretext to invade Cuba. The Kennedy administration ultimately rejected the plan.</p>
<p>In addition to these actual plots, there have been numerous alleged false flag attacks involving the U.S. government. The sinking of the <a href="http://www.nhgallery.org/uss-maine/">USS Maine</a> in 1898 and the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-gulf-of-tonkin-incident-50-years-ago">Gulf of Tonkin incident</a> in 1964 – each of which was a critical part of a casus belli – have been claimed as possible false flag attacks, though the evidence supporting these allegations is weak.</p>
<h2>Global visibility, disinformation and cynicism</h2>
<p>More recent and even less fact-based is the “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/9-11-and-the-rise-of-the-new-conspiracy-theorists-11599768458">9/11 Truth</a>” movement, which alleged that the Bush administration engineered the destruction of the twin towers to justify restrictions on civil liberties and lay the foundation for invading Iraq. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/22/17036018/parkland-conspiracy-theories">Right-wing pundits and politicians</a> have promoted the conspiracy theory that Democrats have staged mass shootings, such as the one at a high school in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, in order to push for gun control laws. </p>
<p>If people believe that false flag operations happen, it is <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-false-flag/">not because they are common</a>. Instead, they gain plausibility from the <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/news/low-political-integrity-throughout-the-european-union-gcb-eu-2021">widespread perception that politicians are unscrupulous</a> and take advantage of crises. </p>
<p>Furthermore, governments operate in relative secrecy and have recourse to tools of coercion such as intelligence, well-trained agents and weapons to implement their agenda. It is not a huge leap to imagine that leaders deliberately cause the high-impact events that they later exploit for political gain, notwithstanding the logistical complexities, large number of people who would have to be involved and moral qualms leaders might have about murdering their own citizens. </p>
<p>For example, it is not controversial to note that the Bush administration used the 9/11 attacks to build support for its <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2021/07/22/why-did-we-invade-iraq/">invasion of Iraq</a>. Yet this led some people to conclude that, since the Bush administration benefited politically from 9/11, it therefore must have caused the attacks, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/seven-resources-debunking-911-conspiracy-theories">despite all evidence to the contrary</a>.</p>
<h2>The challenge of credibility</h2>
<p>The willingness to believe that leaders are capable of such atrocities reflects a broader trend of <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2021/07/trust-public-institutions/">rising distrust</a> toward governments worldwide, which, incidentally, complicates matters for leaders who intend to carry out false flag attacks. If the impact of such attacks has historically come from their ability to rally citizens around their leader, false flag attacks staged today may not only fail to provoke outrage against the purported aggressor, but they can also backfire by casting suspicion on the leaders who stand to benefit. </p>
<p>Furthermore, investigators using open source intelligence, such as the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-bellingcat-unmasked-putins-assassins">Bellingcat collective</a> of citizen internet sleuths, make it more difficult for governments to get away with egregious violations of laws and international norms.</p>
<p>Even as the Biden administration attempts to blunt Russia’s ability to seize the initiative, it too faces credibility challenges. Reporters were justifiably <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-russia-ukraine-health-europe-national-security-5c4182d83dd8b7585ac49fdbb5f91c45">skeptical of State Department spokesman</a> Ned Price’s warning about Russia’s false flag plans, especially since he did not provide evidence for the claim. </p>
<p>Skeptics pointed to the August 2021 drone strike during the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, which the military initially asserted was a “righteous strike” to kill a suicide bomber but that later turned out to be a mistaken attack on an innocent man and his family. It took <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike-video.html">overwhelming and undeniable evidence</a> from media investigations before the U.S. government admitted the mistake.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Insofar as the Kremlin might expect to benefit from executing a false flag attack, it would be to manufacture a casus belli among Russian citizens rather than to persuade audiences abroad. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of Russians are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/11/russia-may-be-about-invade-ukraine-russians-dont-want-it/">opposed to invading Ukraine</a>, yet they also harbor negative attitudes toward NATO. </p>
<p>The spectacle of a provocation aimed against Russia on state-run television might provide a jolt of support for an invasion, at least initially. At the same time, Russians are <a href="https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/civil-society-russia-its-role-under-authoritarian-regime-part-ii-russian-society-today-life-opinions-nostalgia/">cynical about their own leaders</a> and might harbor the suspicion that a purported attack was manufactured for political gain.</p>
<h2>False flag alternatives</h2>
<p>In any event, Russia had other options to facilitate the invasion. At the start of its incursion into Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin used “<a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-active-measures/9783838215297">active measures</a>,” including disinformation and deception, to prevent Ukrainian resistance and secure domestic approval. Russia and other post-Soviet states are also prone to claim a “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Revealing_Schemes/ezkqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=provocation">provocation</a>,” which frames any military action as a justified response rather than a first move. </p>
<p>By contrast, false flag operations are complex and perhaps overly theatrical in a way that invites unwanted scrutiny. Governments seeking to sway public opinion face far greater challenges today than they did in the 20th century. False flag attacks are risky, while leaders seeking to manufacture a casus belli can select from a range of subtler and less costly alternatives.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-false-flag-attacks-and-could-russia-make-one-work-in-the-information-age-177128">article</a> originally published on Feb. 17, 2022.</em></p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Radnitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attacking your own side and blaming your foe has a long history and a firm grip on the popular imagination. But the internet makes it difficult to pull off – and less desirable.Scott Radnitz, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771282022-02-17T21:12:33Z2022-02-17T21:12:33ZWhat are false flag attacks – and could Russia make one work in the information age?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447107/original/file-20220217-1111-q3f2em.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Russian and Ukrainian governments both blamed forces aligned with the other for mortar fire in eastern Ukraine and for using the accusations as justification for increased aggression.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UkraineTensions/12cfaa5995ae41b492b6d37f87f25be1/photo">AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An updated version of this article was published on Feb. 24, 2022. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-false-flag-attacks-and-did-russia-stage-any-to-claim-justification-for-invading-ukraine-177879">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p>In the past few weeks, U.S. officials have warned <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-belarus-jens-stoltenberg-43c9151532de706a2edec5684dfcf07d">several</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/13/ukraine-invasion-false-flag-00008470">times</a> that Russia plans to create the appearance of an attack on its own forces and broadcast those images to the world. Such a “false flag” operation, they alleged, would give Russia the pretext to invade Ukraine by provoking shock and outrage. </p>
<p>By exposing this plan, the Biden administration sought to undermine its emotional power and stop the Kremlin from manufacturing a casus belli, or justification for war.</p>
<p>But false flag attacks aren’t what they used to be. With satellite photos and live video on the ground <a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-is-revolutionizing-how-intelligence-is-gathered-and-analyzed-and-opening-a-window-onto-russian-military-activity-around-ukraine-176446">shared widely and instantly on the internet</a> – and with journalists and armchair sleuths joining intelligence professionals in analyzing the information – it’s difficult to get away with false flag attacks today. And with the prevalence of disinformation campaigns, manufacturing a justification for war doesn’t require the expense or risk of a false flag – let alone an actual attack.</p>
<h2>The long history of false flag attacks</h2>
<p>Both false flag attacks and allegations that states engage in them have a long history. The term originated to describe pirates’ wielding of friendly (and false) flags to lure merchant ships close enough to attack. It was later used as a label for any attack – real or simulated – that the instigators inflict against “friendly” forces to incriminate an adversary and create the basis for retaliation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a large open-frame tower in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gleiwitz incident involved Nazi operatives staging an attack on a radio station near the Polish border in 1939 and blaming the attack on the Polish government as an excuse to invade Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler#/media/File:Sender_gliwice.jpg">Grimmi59 rade/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 20th century, there were several prominent episodes involving false flag operations. In 1939, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120314190818/http:/www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/6106566/World-War-IIs-first-victim.html">agents from Nazi Germany</a> broadcast anti-German messages from a German radio station near the Polish border. They also murdered several civilians whom they dressed in Polish military uniforms to create a pretext for Germany’s planned invasion of Poland. </p>
<p>That same year, the Soviet Union <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/A_Frozen_Hell/yXsLNVaDfcoC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=Mainila">detonated shells</a> in Soviet territory near the Finnish border and blamed Finland, which it then proceeded to invade. </p>
<p>The U.S. has also been implicated in similar plots. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=92662&page=1">Operation Northwoods</a> was a proposal to kill Americans and blame the attack on Castro, thereby granting the military the pretext to invade Cuba. The Kennedy administration ultimately rejected the plan.</p>
<p>In addition to these actual plots, there have been numerous alleged false flag attacks involving the U.S. government. The sinking of the <a href="http://www.nhgallery.org/uss-maine/">USS Maine</a> in 1898 and the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-gulf-of-tonkin-incident-50-years-ago">Gulf of Tonkin incident</a> in 1964 – each of which was a critical part of a casus belli – have been claimed as possible false flag attacks, though the evidence supporting these allegations is weak.</p>
<h2>Global visibility, disinformation and cynicism</h2>
<p>More recent and even less fact-based is the “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/9-11-and-the-rise-of-the-new-conspiracy-theorists-11599768458">9/11 Truth</a>” movement, which alleged that the Bush administration engineered the destruction of the twin towers to justify restrictions on civil liberties and lay the foundation for invading Iraq. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/22/17036018/parkland-conspiracy-theories">Right-wing pundits and politicians</a> have promoted the conspiracy theory that Democrats have staged mass shootings, such as the one at a high school in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, in order to push for gun control laws. </p>
<p>If people believe that false flag operations happen, it is <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-false-flag/">not because they are common</a>. Instead, they gain plausibility from the <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/news/low-political-integrity-throughout-the-european-union-gcb-eu-2021">widespread perception that politicians are unscrupulous</a> and take advantage of crises. </p>
<p>Furthermore, governments operate in relative secrecy and have recourse to tools of coercion such as intelligence, well-trained agents and weapons to implement their agenda. It is not a huge leap to imagine that leaders deliberately cause the high-impact events that they later exploit for political gain, notwithstanding the logistical complexities, large number of people who would have to be involved and moral qualms leaders might have about murdering their own citizens. </p>
<p>For example, it is not controversial to note that the Bush administration used the 9/11 attacks to build support for its <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2021/07/22/why-did-we-invade-iraq/">invasion of Iraq</a>. Yet this led some people to conclude that, since the Bush administration benefited politically from 9/11, it therefore must have caused the attacks, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/seven-resources-debunking-911-conspiracy-theories">despite all evidence to the contrary</a>.</p>
<h2>The challenge of credibility</h2>
<p>The willingness to believe that leaders are capable of such atrocities reflects a broader trend of <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2021/07/trust-public-institutions/">rising distrust</a> toward governments worldwide, which, incidentally, complicates matters for leaders who intend to carry out false flag attacks. If the impact of such attacks has historically come from their ability to rally citizens around their leader, false flag attacks staged today may not only fail to provoke outrage against the purported aggressor, but they can also backfire by casting suspicion on the leaders who stand to benefit. </p>
<p>Furthermore, investigators using open source intelligence, such as the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-bellingcat-unmasked-putins-assassins">Bellingcat collective</a> of citizen internet sleuths, make it more difficult for governments to get away with egregious violations of laws and international norms.</p>
<p>Even as the Biden administration attempts to blunt Russia’s ability to seize the initiative, it too faces credibility challenges. Reporters were justifiably <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-russia-ukraine-health-europe-national-security-5c4182d83dd8b7585ac49fdbb5f91c45">skeptical of State Department spokesman</a> Ned Price’s warning about Russia’s false flag plans, especially since he did not provide evidence for the claim. </p>
<p>Skeptics pointed to the August 2021 drone strike during the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, which the military initially asserted was a “righteous strike” to kill a suicide bomber but that later turned out to be a mistaken attack on an innocent man and his family. It took <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike-video.html">overwhelming and undeniable evidence</a> from media investigations before the U.S. government admitted the mistake.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Insofar as the Kremlin might expect to benefit from executing a false flag attack, it would be to manufacture a casus belli among Russian citizens rather than to persuade audiences abroad. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of Russians are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/11/russia-may-be-about-invade-ukraine-russians-dont-want-it/">opposed to invading Ukraine</a>, yet they also harbor negative attitudes toward NATO. </p>
<p>The spectacle of a provocation aimed against Russia on state-run television might provide a jolt of support for an invasion, at least initially. At the same time, Russians are <a href="https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/civil-society-russia-its-role-under-authoritarian-regime-part-ii-russian-society-today-life-opinions-nostalgia/">cynical about their own leaders</a> and might harbor the suspicion that a purported attack was manufactured for political gain.</p>
<h2>False flag alternatives</h2>
<p>In any event, Russia has other options to facilitate an invasion. At the start of its incursion into Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin used “<a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-active-measures/9783838215297">active measures</a>,” including disinformation and deception, to prevent Ukrainian resistance and secure domestic approval. Russia and other post-Soviet states are also prone to claim a “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Revealing_Schemes/ezkqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=provocation">provocation</a>,” which frames any military action as a justified response rather than a first move. </p>
<p>By contrast, false flag operations are complex and perhaps overly theatrical in a way that invites unwanted scrutiny. Governments seeking to sway public opinion face far greater challenges today than they did in the 20th century. False flag attacks are risky, while leaders seeking to manufacture a casus belli can select from a range of subtler and less costly alternatives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Radnitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attacking your own side and blaming your foe has a long history and a firm grip on the popular imagination. But the internet makes it difficult to pull off – and less desirable.Scott Radnitz, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1745932022-01-08T19:27:16Z2022-01-08T19:27:16ZRamaphosa’s ANC birthday speech fails to inspire disillusioned South Africans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439884/original/file-20220108-33626-102gp1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African and African National Congress party's President Cyril Ramaphosa speaks during the ANC's 110th anniversary celebrations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Phill Magakoe /AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The spectators to the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2022-01-08-watch-110-years-of-the-anc-president-cyril-ramaphosa-delivers-january-8-statement/">110th anniversary celebrations</a> of the African National Congress (ANC’s), South Africa’s governing party, looked bored. The dancers roped in to entertain its dwindling faithful were lackluster. Indeed, even during the singing of the national anthem, some in the audience could not even be bothered to stand up. </p>
<p>Then a tired-looking President Cyril Ramaphosa provided an unconvincing statement focusing on unity, renewal and defending democratic gains to an already skeptical South African public. </p>
<p>If ever one needed a reason to ditch the ANC, this <a href="https://www.anc1912.org.za/statement-of-the-national-executive-committee-on-the-occasion-of-the-110th-anniversary-of-the-anc-2022/">January 8 statement</a>, which sets out the party’s agenda for the year, was it. It deliberately misdiagnosed the problems confronting the country, it provided no new vision and therefore little hope to the long-suffering citizens. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa admitted that the National Executive Committee (NEC) had gone through 15 drafts of the statement before he delivered it. It was still dismal, highlighting the intellectual deficit in the ANC’s highest decision-making body in between its five-yearly national conferences.</p>
<p>To exacerbate matters, the <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/live-feed-january-8-statement-anc-celebrates-110th-anniversary-aff75a42-b1ce-4566-a4d1-1d06bc6aac91">speech</a> seemed to be tailored more to the 1960s than to 2021. It was replete with references to counter revolutionary forces, revolutionary discipline, democratic centralism and the developmental state. None of these leftist slogans, however, offer any tangible solutions for the deep political, economical and social malaise afflicting the country.</p>
<p>Consider here the case of the developmental state, the centre piece of which are the country’s parastatals. But not a single one can turn a profit and all seem to be in terminal decline. </p>
<p>This is a state which is battling to fill potholes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">get drinkable water into residents’ taps</a>, keep the lights on, and cannot run an airline or keep trains on <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-04-20-what-broke-south-african-rail-and-can-it-be-fixed/">track</a>. When is the ANC going to acknowledge that South Africa will be better off privatising the lot of them? </p>
<p>Ramaphosa even acknowledged that a capable state needs an effective public service. But, this begs the question: why does he not start with his own cabinet? There is so much of <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/opinion/letters/2021-07-21-time-to-chop-deadwood-in-the-cabinet-mr-president/">deadwood</a> around the table. Why not get rid of the incompetents as opposed to recycling them into new portfolios?</p>
<h2>Cold comfort</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa offered citizens leftist political rhetoric as opposed to any concrete plan of action. He provided cold comfort to South Africans who bothered to tune into the proceedings.</p>
<p>The misdiagnosis of the challenges confronting the country was deliberate in that it attempted to exonerate the party of misgovernance. Consider the case of the sluggish economy.</p>
<p>Much of the blame here was laid at the door of the Covid-19 pandemic. The truth is that the economy was already in trouble before the March 2020 lockdown. Much of the reason for the economic evisceration of large numbers of South Africans is precisely because of the ineptitude displayed by ANC deployees in government and its anti-growth policies.</p>
<p>Instead, Ramaphosa refered to the R350 (US$22.45) <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/social-benefits/social-relief-distress">Covid-19 relief grant</a> the ANC has initiated. According to him it lifted 5 million people above the food poverty line. One would expect that as a businessman Ramaphosa would realise that it is hardly sustainable for the majority of South Africans to receive social grants in the midst of a dwindling <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/462062/south-africas-shrinking-tax-base-piles-pressure-on-sars/">tax base</a>.</p>
<p>The emigration of skilled professionals is merely one result of the average South African taxpayer who, despite increasingly carrying a disproportionate tax burden, does not receive much in the way of services. </p>
<p>What is desperately needed for the higher growth path the President articulated is the adoption and urgent implementation of pro-investor and pro-business policies. </p>
<p>This the ANC has been loath to do. And so, the economic malaise continues.</p>
<h2>Safety and security</h2>
<p>On security, Ramaphosa acknowledged that stability was undermined by the July 2021 <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2021/07/21/explainer-what-caused-south-africa-s-week-of-rioting/">riots</a> that followed the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma. But, there was no acknowledgement that the riots were the result of the factionalism he referred to which is tearing up the ANC and the country.</p>
<p>If anything, the July riots showed the big lie in the January statement that South Africa needs the ANC to realise a stable and prosperous country providing a better life for all. To be frank, for South Africa to survive, the ANC needs to die. </p>
<p>As commander-in-chief, ultimately the July riots are on Ramaphosa himself. He was the one sitting on the High Level Review <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/analysis/explainer-what-the-2018-high-level-panel-report-into-ssa-found-and-what-was-done-20210202">Report</a> on the security services pointing to their politicisation and criminalisation. </p>
<p>The panel, chaired by academic <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/media-statement-jsci-welcomes-relocation-ssa-presidency-and-appointment-dr-sydney-mufamadi-national-security-advisor">Sydney Mufamadi</a>, completed its work in December 2018. But its recommendations were not really implemented and for that the dithering President needs to take the blame. Neither has he acted on the stand-off between the Police Minister and his National Police Commissioner which has paralysed the <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2021-07-06-feud-between-cele-and-sitole-undermines-crime-fighting/">police</a>.</p>
<h2>Social front</h2>
<p>On the social front, Ramaphosa was correct to lay emphasis on gender based violence. But here again, the facts on the ground paint a dismal picture of incompetence. Over 76% of police stations do not have a <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2021/02/19/cele-denies-there-was-a-shortage-of-rape-kits-at-police-stations-last-year">rape kit</a>.</p>
<p>The president touted the <a href="https://www.cogta.gov.za/index.php/2021/05/10/what-is-the-district-development-model/">district development model</a> as the panacea for the ills of local government. This was first touted ten years ago but <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2021/10/13/failure-of-govt-s-district-development-model-blamed-on-anc-infighting">experts</a> have already acknowledged its failure to make good on its promise of service delivery on account of ANC factionalism and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321223498_The_African_National_Congress_ANC_and_the_Cadre_Deployment_Policy_in_the_Postapartheid_South_Africa_A_Product_of_Democratic_Centralisation_or_a_Recipe_for_a_Constitutional_Crisis">cadre deployment</a>. </p>
<p>The ANC has largely deployed people on the basis of party loyalty as opposed to the requisite skill sets to staff parastatals and various government departments. <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/politics/2952688/anc-cadre-deployment-minutes-made-public-6-january-2022/">Minutes</a> of the ANC’s own cadre deployment committee show that in some cases, candidates applied directly to the ANC as opposed to the government department advertising the vacancy. The committee oversees the ANC’s policy of appointing members and sympathisers to key government positions.</p>
<p>As chair of the ANC’s deployment committee (when he was the deputy president of the ANC) Ramaphosa is equally responsible for the current state of affairs in the country. This includes the mounting evidence of corruption and state capture, most recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-capture-report-chronicles-extent-of-corruption-in-south-africa-but-will-action-follow-174441">set out explicitly</a> in the first report from the Zondo commission of inquiry.</p>
<h2>Foreign policy</h2>
<p>On the foreign policy front, the ANC statement demonstrated why South Africa finds itself in such a weakened position in Africa and globally. </p>
<p>There was the expression of solidarity with Cuba – the usual sop to the ANC’s <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv03161.htm">tripartite allies</a> the South African Communist Party and labour federation Cosatu.</p>
<p>There was also the traditional denunciation of Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands as well as standing firmly with the Polisario Front in the quest for an independent Saharawi Republic. </p>
<p>These populist positions hardly reflect the reality. In Cuba, the Castro era has already drawn to a close with <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/17/cuban-opposition-group-calls-for-more-protests-denounces-arrests">protesting Cubans</a> looking forward to their own New Dawn.</p>
<p>As for the Israeli-Palestinian question, there are tectonic shifts taking place across the Middle East represented by the <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/abraham-accords-one-year-later-assessing-impact-and-what-lies-ahead">Abraham Accords</a> and Israel forging ever closer ties with an increasing number of Arab – as well as African – states. </p>
<p>Finally, there is the issue of an independent Saharawi Republic. Given recent <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/1/31/morocco-rejoins-the-african-union-after-33-years">developments</a>, the realistic option would be for the Polisario Front to accept Morocco’s offer of greater autonomy.</p>
<p>In the final instance, South Africans are led by a dithering president at the helm of an inept political party which has already passed its sell by date.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Solomon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Africans are led by a dithering president at the helm of an inept political party which has already passed its sell by date.Hussein Solomon, Senior Professor and Academic Head of Department: Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1727252021-12-07T14:55:24Z2021-12-07T14:55:24ZCuba’s COVID vaccines: the limited data available suggests they’re highly effective<p>The western world has written plenty about its high-profile COVID vaccines: the mRNA products of Pfizer and Moderna, viral-vectored jabs from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, and those that are just emerging, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/novavax-covid-vaccine-is-nearing-approval-but-what-impact-will-it-have-171647">Novavax’s protein-based vaccine</a>. Many countries are relying on them for protection.</p>
<p>But not Cuba. It’s been quietly working on its own vaccines, immunising its population and selling doses abroad. </p>
<p>Cuba’s vaccine efforts have maintained a relatively low profile in the west to date. Politics may well be a reason. The US embargo against Cuba that <a href="https://www.state.gov/cuba-sanctions/">began in the cold war</a> is still in effect, and tensions between the countries remain high.</p>
<p>But for those familiar with Cuba, its COVID vaccine development should come as no surprise – the country has a <a href="https://www.paho.org/cub/dmdocuments/BIOLopezEetal.pdf">long history</a> of manufacturing its own vaccines and medicines. Nor should it be surprising that two of its COVID vaccines – Abdala and Soberana 02 – appear to have performed very well in trials. Here’s how they work.</p>
<p>Abdala is a <a href="https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/what-are-protein-subunit-vaccines-and-how-could-they-be-used-against-covid-19">protein subunit vaccine</a>, which is a well-established design. The hepatitis B vaccine and <a href="https://theconversation.com/novavax-covid-vaccine-is-nearing-approval-but-what-impact-will-it-have-171647">Novavax COVID vaccine</a> use this approach. These vaccines work by delivering just a portion of the virus that they’re targeted against – in the case of Abdala, bits of the coronavirus’s spike proteins, which cover its exterior.</p>
<p>The proteins used in the vaccine aren’t taken from the coronavirus directly. Instead, they’re <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03470-x">grown in cells of a yeast</a> (<em>Pichia pastoris</em>) that have been specially engineered.</p>
<p>On their own, the portions of spike protein are harmless. But when the immune system encounters them, it still trains itself to recognise and destroy them. If the full coronavirus is then encountered in the future, the body will attack these outer parts of the virus and quickly destroy it. Abdala is given in three doses. </p>
<p>The other Cuban COVID vaccine, Soberana 02, uses a “conjugate” design, along the lines of meningitis or typhoid vaccines. It contains a different part of the spike protein to Abdala and generates an immune response by attaching (conjugating) this to a harmless extract from the tetanus toxin. When the body encounters these linked together, it launches a stronger immune response than it would to either alone.</p>
<p>Soberana 02 is produced in hamster ovary cells, a process that can be slow, and this may restrict large-scale manufacturing. </p>
<p>Originally, it was given as two doses, but researchers later identified that a third dose would be beneficial. This booster dose contains just the spike protein parts, without the tetanus toxin, and is known as “Soberana Plus”. </p>
<h2>How effective are they?</h2>
<p>Both vaccines have been <a href="https://www.cecmed.cu/noticias/aprueba-cecmed-autorizo-uso-emergencia-candidato-vacunal-cubano-abdala">approved</a> by the Cuban regulator, though they <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1912">started being rolled out in May</a> – before authorisation had been granted – in response to a rise in cases. There have been concerns about a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelan-academy-medicine-expresses-concern-over-use-cuban-vaccine-2021-09-27/">lack of information</a> on their safety and efficacy.</p>
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<p><strong><em>Listen: <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-race-to-make-its-own-coronavirus-vaccine-podcast-160324">Cuba’s race to make its own coronavirus vaccine – podcast</a></em></strong></p>
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<p>On November 1 2021, a <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.31.21265703v2">preprint</a> (research still awaiting review) was finally published of a Soberana phase 3 trial that included 44,031 participants. The results suggest that two doses of Soberana 02 with a booster of Soberana Plus are together 92% protective against symptomatic COVID. The preprint notes that during the trial, the vaccine was most likely being tested against <a href="https://gvn.org/covid-19/beta-b-1-351/">beta</a> or <a href="https://gvn.org/covid-19/delta-b-1-617-2/">delta</a> – two variants of the coronavirus that other vaccines have found harder to control.</p>
<p>Before this, a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(21)00075-2/fulltext">phase 1 study</a> of giving Soberana Plus to people who had already had COVID was published in September. This was testing the effects of Soberana Plus as a booster to natural rather than vaccine-induced immunity. It showed no safety issues and stimulated a good immune response when used in this way – though the study was small, involving just 30 participants.</p>
<p>For Abdala, the only phase 3 trial data available was issued by Cuban press releases in <a href="http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2021/06/21/candidato-vacunal-abdala-muestra-9228-de-eficacia-en-su-esquema-unico-de-tres-dosis/">June</a> and <a href="http://misiones.minrex.gob.cu/es/articulo/vacuna-abdala-100-eficacia-ante-la-enfermedad-severa-y-la-muerte-en-su-ensayo-fase-iii">July</a> 2021. The three-dose schedule is also reportedly 92% protective against symptomatic COVID as well as allegedly fully protective against severe disease and death.</p>
<p>This generated huge <a href="https://cuba-solidarity.org.uk/news/article/4268/cubas-covid-vaccine-rivals-biontech-pfizer-moderna">enthusiasm</a> within Cuba. However, since then little further information has been made publicly available.</p>
<p>Around 90% of Cuba’s 11 million people <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/cuba">have received</a> at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, with 82% considered fully vaccinated, and it <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/17/cuba-begins-vaccinating-children-as-young-as-two-against-covid-19">appears</a> Cuba is vaccinating children as young as two. Both Abdala and Soberana have been used, with around 8 million people receiving three doses of Abdala.</p>
<p>Following a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/cuba">big spike in cases</a> in August 2021 – when the country’s vaccine coverage was still relatively low – new infections in Cuba have since declined greatly and remain low. Without proper studies, it’s difficult to gauge how much of this is down to the vaccines, but the virus’s suppression coinciding with the country reaching high vaccine coverage is a positive sign. </p>
<h2>Who could use a Cuban vaccine?</h2>
<p>Given the difficult relationship between Cuba and the US, the market for Cuba’s vaccines will probably be its political allies. Vietnam and Venezuela <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/news/2021-10-05/cubas-exporting-vaccines-but-will-countries-import-them-without-who-approval">are reported</a> to have received Abdala doses, Nicaragua has given emergency authorisation to both vaccines, and doses have previously been sent to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/20/cuba-encouraged-by-early-efficacy-results-of-covid-19-vaccine">Iran</a> for use in clinical trials. Mexico and Argentina are also <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1912">interested</a> in using these vaccines.</p>
<p>Cuba has submitted both to the World Health Organization (WHO) for approval, which would improve the likelihood of them being used abroad. If there are any plans to include them in the Covax vaccine-sharing initiative, then WHO approval is a <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/15-02-2021-who-lists-two-additional-covid-19-vaccines-for-emergency-use-and-covax-roll-out">must</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, we’re still waiting to see what impact omicron will have. So long as there’s <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicron-is-here-a-lack-of-covid-vaccines-is-partly-why1/">unequal access to vaccines</a>, the pandemic will continue – and so too the risk of new variants arising. </p>
<p>Given most richer countries aren’t in the queue for Abdala or Soberana 02, it’s entirely possible that in future, parts of South America, Asia and Africa – where vaccine coverage is <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/less-10-african-countries-hit-key-covid-19-vaccination-goal">particularly low</a> – may see Cuban vaccines in many arms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Head has received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development. </span></em></p>The country appears to have created two highly protective jabs – though rigorous data on their testing still needs to be seen.Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1724342021-11-24T16:01:52Z2021-11-24T16:01:52ZCuba: five years after Fidel Castro’s death, how fares the revolution?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433520/original/file-20211123-27-1uc95jn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">h</span> </figcaption></figure><p>If recent events in Cuba are anything to go by, the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez is facing significant challenges as the country marks five years since the death of its revolutionary leader, Fidel Castro, on <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-crisis-stricken-venezuela-fidel-castros-legacy-lives-on-69531">November 25 2016</a>. </p>
<p>At least one leading dissident, journalist Guillermo Farinas, was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/13/cuban-opposition-figure-arrested-ahead-of-banned-protest">taken into custody</a> ahead of a protest planned for November 15, while, according to some reports, others were placed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/16/cuba-democracy-protests-thwarted-after-rallies-banned-and-leaders-arrested">under house arrest</a>. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/21/world/americas/yunior-garcia-exile-spain.html">Yunior García</a>, one of the organisers of the protest – which was shut down by authorities – was placed under house arrest but allowed to leave Cuba for Spain. </p>
<p>It’s tempting to view protests – and the idea of constant internal crisis – as the defining feature of contemporary Cuba. But critique and protest have been a part of Cuba’s history since independence. And – more importantly – Cubans are taught that it is their revolutionary duty to question and critique constructively. </p>
<p>Debates are not confined to the intelligentsia either – most Cubans have an opinion on how to improve their country. But, on the whole and despite the undeniable hardships that still face the Cuban people, the majority continue to demonstrate a <a href="https://www.mintpressnews.com/cuba-more-excited-about-school-reopening-then-protests/278972/">commitment to</a> maintain the system – albeit while working to improve conditions.</p>
<p>The way in which the death of Castro was commemorated in Cuba tells us much about the complexity of Cuban society. The <em><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38201169">Caravana de la Libertad</a></em> (Caravan of Freedom) that carried his ashes to the Santa Ifigenia Cemetery in the eastern city of Santiago de Cuba mirrored the route that the triumphant <em>guerrilleros</em> took in early 1959 as they returned to Havana, having ousted the dictator Fulgencio Batista.</p>
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<img alt="Two women, one with face painting honouring the late Cudan president Fidel Castro." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433544/original/file-20211123-19-1g2vjof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1019&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">‘Yo soy Fidel’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonia Almaguer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>In 2016, just as in 1959, Cubans lined the central highway along the length of the island to pay their respects, many of them holding images of Fidel Castro, waving the Cuban flag or displaying the hashtag <em><a href="https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/I-Am-Fidel-Cubas-Youth-Deepen-Commitment-to-Revolution-20161204-009.html">#Yo soy Fidel</a></em> (I am Fidel). Some outside commentators <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/nov/28/fidel-castro-he-was-no-hero-says-the-uks-national-press">interpreted this</a> unusual commemoration as evidence of an authoritarian – or, at least, coercive – system which demands loyalty and obedience. Others noted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/cuba-fidel-castro-three-generations">varying responses</a> from different generations, whose expectations have changed as those with direct memories of pre-revolutionary Cuba have begun to die out.</p>
<p>Those who closely follow Cuban society recognised a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/27/today-we-dont-talk-about-baseball-cubans-react-to-castros-death">complex range</a> of responses and emotions by Cubans of all generations across the island. Some were there to mourn a figure who had improved their lives, others to commemorate the end of a historical period, and yet others to witness a historical moment that captured the world’s attention.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-crisis-stricken-venezuela-fidel-castros-legacy-lives-on-69531">In crisis-stricken Venezuela, Fidel Castro's legacy lives on</a>
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<h2>From Obama to Trump to Biden</h2>
<p>Five years on, that complexity is very much still in evidence, but the context has changed immeasurably and in ways that could not have been anticipated. <a href="https://theconversation.com/diplomatic-thaw-with-the-us-is-a-gift-to-the-cuban-economy-35692">The rapprochement</a> between Cuba and the US during the Obama administration was reversed – and sent into punitive overdrive – by the raft of <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/cuba-us-sanctions-caused-billions-of-dollars-in-losses/2277824">243 sanctions</a> implemented by Donald Trump’s administration to restrict Cuba’s economic activity. Joe Biden has yet to reverse these sanctions, which have hit Cuba particularly hard in terms of income from tourism – the island’s economic mainstay since the collapse of trade with the Soviet Bloc in the early 1990s. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cubans, some holding portraits of the late Fidel Castro, mourning the death of the president in Havana's Plaza de la Revolución, November 2016." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/433541/original/file-20211123-13-6aky1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cubans mourn the death of Fidel Castro in the Plaza de la Revolución, Havana, November 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonia Almaguer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/1/what-will-cubas-new-single-currency-mean-for-the-island">Currency reforms</a> in December 2020 – the <em><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/1/what-will-cubas-new-single-currency-mean-for-the-island">Tarea Ordenamiento</a></em> or “fusion” of the dual currencies that had existed since the 1990s as a response to the end of trade with the Soviet Bloc – brought increased salaries for public sector workers, but led to rising inflation. This, coupled with the restrictions of life under the pandemic and the negative impact of the heightened US embargo, created further economic instabilities, inequalities and precariousness. </p>
<p>Meanwhile Castro’s death, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-president-diaz-canel-made-communist-party-leader-ending-castro-era-2021-04-19/">retirement from office</a> of his brother Raúl Castro, and the election of a new generation of leader in the shape of party stalwart Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez in 2019 have created additional unknowns – not least since the “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/04/16/988019067/cuba-without-a-castro-the-islands-old-guard-exits-the-stage">historic generation</a>” that led the revolution in 1959 has all but disappeared.</p>
<h2>The impact of COVID</h2>
<p>On the face of it, <a href="https://covid.observer/cu/">data shows</a> that Cuba has handled the pandemic very well: with just 8.5% of the population infected and 0.73 deaths per thousand in Cuba (compared to 15% and 2.13 respectively in the UK). In addition, figures sourced from the University of Oxford’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html">Our World in Data project</a> shows that Cuba has fully vaccinated 80% of its population. This places the country third in the world behind UAE and Brunei.</p>
<p>Cuba’s renowned biotech sector has also produced <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1912">five COVID-19</a> vaccines – the first Latin American country to produce a vaccine. Meanwhile the tradition of medical internationalism, for which Cuba is famous, continued with the <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/01/09/its-time-to-give-cuba-the-credit-it-deserves-for-its-global-medical-accomplishments/">Henry Reeve International Medical Brigade</a>, which sent medical professionals to 40 countries. </p>
<p>But COVID has also created social divisions – largely between those who followed the rules and those who didn’t. Early on in the pandemic, debates raged about how Cubans depended on the <em>coleros</em> (queuers). These are people who wait in line for now-precious basic commodities and often re-sell at increased prices. There were criticisms that some of these people were compromising collective pandemic discipline and social equality. </p>
<h2>Who decides the nature of change?</h2>
<p>It is against this backdrop of political and economic insecurity and COVID restrictions that the protests of July and November <a href="https://theconversation.com/cubas-mass-protests-are-driven-by-the-misery-of-covid-and-economic-sanctions-164505">must be seen</a>. In effect they are not greatly dissimilar to similar demonstrations in the US, the UK or Europe. But in Cuba these protests have an additional component. There is <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2111/S00040/why-is-the-us-fueling-the-november-15-cuba-protests.htm">evidence of</a> clear, sustained and organised interference from organisations in the US. </p>
<p>Since 1959, Cubans have been emphasising that revolution is a constant process, not an event. Current discussions by Cubans of all generations, including the leadership, focus on the revolutionary duty to “change everything that needs to be changed” – a reference to Fidel Castro’s 2000 <a href="https://www.radiogritodebaire.cu/English/cuba/fidel-concept-revolution/">definition of revolution</a> as a constant concept underpinning the Cuban revolution. In this sense, the real issue at stake is the concept of change and who decides to implement it. </p>
<p>In 2021, as in 1959, the key issue is who controls Cuba. Cuba gained its independence in 1898, almost a century after many other Spanish colonies in the Americas. Another century on, and – thanks to US intervention – Cuba’s destiny as a sovereign nation – the right to make its own mistakes as well as celebrate its own successes – is still not entirely in its own hands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parvathi Kumaraswami received funding from the Leverhulme Trust and the British Academy. </span></em></p>Cuba has handled COVID well, but sanctions and economic uncertainty are causing unrest among some sections of society.Parvathi Kumaraswami, Chair in Latin American Studies, Faculty of Arts, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1706112021-11-19T13:16:28Z2021-11-19T13:16:28ZCuba’s post-revolution architecture offers a blueprint for how to build more with less<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429039/original/file-20211028-19-1ndyd3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C118%2C3602%2C2428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Builders construct experimental vaults of brick and cement blocks in Santiago de Cuba in December 1960.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Centro de Documentación, Empresa RESTAURA, Oficina del Historiador de la Ciudad de La Habana</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, there’s a conjoined crisis of climate change and housing shortages – two topics at the <a href="https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comment/comment/cop26-climate-change-and-why-housing-matters-73166">top of the list of discussions</a> in the recent <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26 climate summit</a> in Glasgow. </p>
<p>Construction and buildings <a href="https://unhabitat.org/the-climate-is-changing-so-must-our-homes-how-we-build-them">account for more than one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Meanwhile, according to a September report by Realtor.com, the U.S. alone <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html">is short 5.24 million homes</a>.</p>
<p>Addressing both crises will require building structures <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2020/jan/15/the-case-for-making-low-tech-dumb-cities-instead-of-smart-ones">more sustainably</a> and <a href="https://www.designworldonline.com/abb-robotics-advances-construction-industry-automation-to-enable-safer-and-sustainable-building/">more efficiently</a>.</p>
<p>But this isn’t the first time architects and governments have had to deal with dwindling resources and the task of housing large numbers of people. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/post-revolution-cuba/">In 1959</a>, an armed revolt led by Fidel Castro ousted Cuba’s military dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. As part of a broader plan to improve the quality of life for millions of Cubans, Castro’s new government sought to develop a program to mass-produce new housing, schools and factories.</p>
<p>In the years that followed, however, this dream clashed with difficult realities. Sanctions and supply chain disruptions had created a shortage of conventional building materials.</p>
<p>Architects realized they needed to do more with less and invent new construction methods using local materials.</p>
<h2>A thousand-year-old technique</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/jsah.2021.80.3.321">In an article</a> that I co-authored with architect and engineer <a href="https://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/people/mhr29%40cam.ac.uk">Michael Ramage</a> and architect <a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1406-4588">Dania González Couret</a>, we explored the creative challenges of this period by focusing on a specific structural element that these Cuban architects soon seized upon: the tile vault.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/988501">Tile vaulting</a> is a technique that flourished in the eastern Mediterranean <a href="https://www.academia.edu/46049241/2021_BRICK_CONSTRUCTION_IN_ALMORAVID_MARRAKECH_THE_QUBBAT_AL_BARUDIYYIN">after the 10th century</a>. </p>
<p>It involves constructing arched ceilings made of multiple layers of lightweight terra cotta tiles. To build the first layer, the builders use fast-setting mortar to glue the tiles together with barely any temporary support. Afterward, the builder adds more layers with normal cement or lime mortar. This technique doesn’t require expensive machinery or use of a lot of timber for formwork. But speed and craftsmanship are paramount.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pencil drawings of different arches." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429024/original/file-20211028-26-1rirswx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Three types of vaults – clockwise, from top left: conventional stone, tiled dome and tiled vault.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://oa.upm.es/38027/">Luis Moya Blanco</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Because of its affordability and durability, tile vaulting spread <a href="https://researchportal.vub.be/en/publications/the-construction-of-tile-vaults-in-belgium-1900-1940-contractors">to different parts of Europe</a> and <a href="https://papress.com/products/guastavino-vaulting-the-art-of-structural-tile">the Americas</a>. It became known as <a href="https://sap.mit.edu/article/standard/guastavino-vaulting-art-structural-tile">Guastavino tiling</a> in the U.S – a nod to Spanish architect Rafael Guastavino, who used the technique in <a href="https://savingplaces.org/stories/7-majestic-guastavino-tile-vaults-from-around-the-country#.YZS4P9BBzIU">over 1,000 projects in the U.S.</a>, including the Boston Public Library and New York’s Grand Central Station. </p>
<h2>Vaults in vogue</h2>
<p>In Cuba, tile vaults were famously used to build the National Art Schools, or Escuelas Nacionales de Arte. </p>
<p>Fidel Castro advocated for the construction of the five schools on what, before the revolution, had been a golf course in Cubanacán, a town west of Havana. </p>
<p>Designed by Ricardo Porro, Vittorio Garatti and Roberto Gottardi, the <a href="https://papress.com/products/revolution-of-forms-updated-edition-cubas-forgotten-art-schools">schools integrate terra cotta shells and arches with the site’s green landscape</a>. They were long thought to be the only tile vault buildings in post-revolution Cuba. </p>
<p>However, we discovered that the National Art Schools are only the tip of the iceberg. From 1960 to 1965, a range of vault experiments and projects took place across the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and white photo of an open air arched building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429025/original/file-20211028-13-11t51l9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The School of Ballet by Vittorio Gratti, one of the five vaulted National Art Schools in Havana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">M. Wesam Al Asali</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shortly after the revolution, architects and engineers at the Ministry of Construction – known as MICONS – went to Camagüey, a province known for its terra cotta brick-making, to learn more about the craft. One of these architects, Juan Campos Almanza, then a recent graduate of the University of Havana, led the research team. As an experiment, he built a load-bearing vault on the grounds of the Azorin brick factory. </p>
<p>It was a success. He went on to use the design to construct affordable and elegant beachfront homes in Santa Lucía, north of Camagüey, using the same vault design.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vaulted homes lined up side by side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429026/original/file-20211028-19-13u43mb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Juan Campos Almanza’s beachfront homes were built based on a vaulting experiment that took place in 1960.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Documentation Center, Office of the Historian of Havana</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The best of both worlds</h2>
<p>Brick-and-tile vault construction appeared to be a promising solution to build replicable and cost-effective ceilings. </p>
<p>The Center of Technical Investigations, an agency tasked with developing housing, schools and factories, used Almanza’s research to construct its own vaulted offices. An outdoor space nearby – famously called “El Patio del MICONS” – became a staging ground for more structural experiments.</p>
<p>In El Patio, craftspeople, engineers and architects worked together to develop affordable vaulted buildings, while teachers at El Patio’s tile masons’ school taught building techniques to cohorts of apprentices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429033/original/file-20211028-25-hbesj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=601&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Builders practice putting together a vaulted roof in the Patio del MICONS in 1961.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Documentation Center, Office of the Historian of Havana</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Vaulted buildings and homes soon started cropping up across the country. In 1961, Juan Campos Almanza completed his first housing projects in Altahabana, a new neighborhood located near Havana, building simple barrel vaults on prefabricated beams. Similar designs were used for more beachfront houses, schools and factories.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429036/original/file-20211028-17-1ui2vdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=611&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Architect Mario Girona built a vaulted elementary school in Marianao, Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Documentation Center, Office of the Historian of Havana</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In his report about the Altahabana pilot project, Campos defined his method as “tradicional mejorado,” or “improved traditional construction” – a mix of conventional building methods with some prefabricated elements. </p>
<p>This way, he argued, builders could gain the best of both worlds: The construction, some of it built by hand, was fast and replicable. And it didn’t require a lot of materials and preexisting infrastructure.</p>
<p>The best example of this construction method is the vaulted Pre-University Center at Liberty City, the site of a former U.S. Army base. The structure was designed in 1961 by Josefina Rebellón, who at the time was a third-year architecture student. </p>
<p>Only a couple of miles from the Schools of Art, Rebellón’s design was completed in 18 months. It was made up of two circular vaulted buildings, with conical vaults and prefabricated beams, with an undulating two-story classroom building between the two circles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bird's-eye drawing of two circular buildings" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432083/original/file-20211115-13-1bgtdne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sketch of Josefina Rebellón’s Pre-University Center.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Documentation Center, Office of the Historian of Havana</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A brief experiment with a lasting legacy</h2>
<p>These exciting new construction methods didn’t last long. </p>
<p>In 1963, Havana hosted the conference for the International Union of Architects. That year’s theme was <a href="https://www.uia-architectes.org/webApi/en/congress/havana-1963.html">Architecture in Developing Countries</a>.</p>
<p>The conference gave Cuban architects an opportunity to reflect on their recent experiences. The Ministry of Construction pushed to end what it viewed as a period of experimentation; mass housing, they argued, demanded industrialized construction.</p>
<p>Buildings started being made in factories and then assembled on site. Skilled and specialized labor, like vault-building, was no longer seen as an asset but an obstacle, since vault builders were difficult to find in the country’s remote areas, and novice builders required extensive training.</p>
<p>[<em>More than 140,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p>
<p>Yet the story of these buildings offers lessons for designing with scarcity. </p>
<p>The ability to experiment is important. Coordination among builders, governments and architects is crucial. And craftsmanship matters, too, whether it’s tile vaulting or <a href="https://practicalpreservationservices.com/traditional-joinery-what-it-is-and-why-is-it-important-in-preservation/">traditional carpentry</a>. </p>
<p>For too long, buildings that required craftsmanship have been thought of as overly expensive pet projects that deployed techniques better suited for a different era. But the Cubans were able to show that craftsmanship can be developed, scaled up and combined with technological advances.</p>
<p>Today, a handful of promising initiatives show how the craft of tile vaulting can serve for the <a href="https://architizer.com/projects/rwanda-cricket-stadium/">low-carbon construction of buildings</a> or engineered <a href="https://block.arch.ethz.ch/brg/research/rib-stiffened-funicular-floor-system">ceiling systems</a>. Back in Cuba, tile vaulting is now being taught in the <a href="http://www.eusebioleal.cu/noticia/se-crea-aula-taller-eusebio-leal-spengler/">Escuela Taller Gaspar Melchor</a>, a training center in Havana’s historical center.</p>
<p>Cuba’s vaulted architecture reflects the relationship between necessity and invention, a process that many people mistakenly think of as automatic. It isn’t. It is a relationship based on perseverance, trial and error and, above all, passion.</p>
<p>Look no further than what Juan Campos Almanza and his peers left behind on the island: beautiful, replicable buildings, many of which are still standing today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170611/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>M. Wesam Al Asali is the Lead Designer and Founder of IWlab and CERCAA.
</span></em></p>After Fidel Castro took power, government plans to build new housing, schools and factories were hindered by sanctions and supply chain issues, forcing architects to come up with creative solutions.M. Wesam Al Asali, Global Fung Postdoctoral Fellow, Princeton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1697682021-10-14T19:35:53Z2021-10-14T19:35:53ZNobel winner David Card shows immigrants don’t reduce the wages of native-born workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426445/original/file-20211014-17-lo1wrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1077%2C6048%2C2924&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian David Card, winner of the 2021 Nobel Prize in economics, stands for a portrait in Berkeley, Calif. Card, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, received the award for his research on minimum wages and immigration. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Noah Berger)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Applied economists spend a large fraction of their time trying to squeeze meaningful answers — <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c2128178-d509-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9">causal effects</a> — out of observational data. </p>
<p>Unlike the natural sciences, we can’t run experiments in order to answer the big questions in our field. If we want to know, for example, how raising the minimum wage affects unemployment, we must rely on real-world data generated by employers and their workers and customers. </p>
<p>But it’s not as easy as simply comparing unemployment rates in two jurisdictions with different minimum wage policies. <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/minimum-wage-by-country">Minimum wage legislation is a policy choice</a>, and these choices are a function of a range of economic and political forces that also likely explain unemployment rates. That means our ability to learn anything about the effect of minimum wage hikes from a simple “apples and oranges” comparison of this nature is very limited. </p>
<p>Canadian economist David Card received a share of this year’s Nobel prize in economics largely for developing credible methods for teasing causal effects from this type of observational data. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-david-card-the-2021-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-who-made-the-minimum-wage-respectable-169715">Introducing David Card, the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics winner who made the minimum wage respectable</a>
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<p>While the native of Guelph, Ont., has written too many high-impact papers to mention here, economists often associate his name with two landmark, highly influential studies, which we all learn in graduate school.</p>
<p>The first, <a href="http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/emet04/ck/CardKruegerMinWage.pdf">which examines the effect of minimum wages on unemployment</a>, has received much attention in the wake of the Nobel announcement. So let’s focus on the second, in which Card <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/001979399004300205">combined a clever technique with data generated by a unique historical event to credibly answer how large-scale immigration from a poor country affects the wages of native-born citizens</a>.</p>
<h2>The Mariel Boatlift</h2>
<p>Between April and October of 1980, about <a href="https://www.history.com/news/mariel-boatlift-castro-carter-cold-war">125,000 people escaped Cuba from the Port of Mariel, landing as refugees in Miami</a>. What became known as the Mariel Boatlift suddenly and dramatically increased Miami’s local labour force by about seven per cent.</p>
<p>This is a prime example of a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/natural-experiment">natural experiment</a>,” which social scientists are much better able to recognize and exploit today due in part to Card’s trail-blazing early work. </p>
<p>Though it would be impossible to study the effect of mass immigration on native employment and wages in a true laboratory setting, Card realized that the Mariel Boatlift was the next best thing as the city of Miami experienced an unexpected major immigration shock for reasons that had little, if anything, to do with wages or employment in the community. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A U.S. Marine in uniform helps a Cuban toddler dressed only in a diaper off a boat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426467/original/file-20211014-20-19bfzdw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this 1980 photo, a U.S. Marine helps a young Cuban child off a refugee boat in Key West, Fla.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Fernando Yovera)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The method he used is a classic example of what has become a standard tool in the applied economist’s toolkit, known as “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/difference-in-differences">difference in differences</a>.” By comparing the difference in Miami wages from before and after the boatlift to the same difference over time in a group of U.S. control cities, Card was able to credibly estimate the causal effect of large-scale immigration of low-skill workers in the local labour market.</p>
<p>Card found a “null” effect — not only were native wages and unemployment unaffected by the seven per cent increase in the labour force in Miami, there was specifically no effect on native-born low-skill workers, defined as those with at most a high school degree. These findings were at odds with a lot of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2017/08/24/do-immigrants-steal-jobs-from-american-workers/">anti-immigration sentiment</a> in both the U.S. and Canada.</p>
<h2>Testing Economics 101</h2>
<p>Card’s finding challenged the conventional wisdom of the time and ultimately forced economists to rethink the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-19/econ-101-is-about-basic-economic-ideas-what-if-they-re-wrong">Economics 101</a> model of immigration and wage settings in the labour market. In the dominant thinking of the time, mass immigration represents a major increase in labour supply, which should lead to a decrease in the price of labour — in other words, lower wages and less work for native-born citizens. </p>
<p>Why would a massive influx of workers to a city fail to assert downward pressure on native wages and employment? More than 30 years after Card’s paper was published, immigration and labour economists are <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/the-great-immigration-data-debate/424230/">still reckoning</a> with his key findings, and a whole new set of theories and empirical studies are on the table. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.3.135">One theory</a> with some supporting evidence is that foreign workers and native workers can be “<a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w12956">imperfect substitutes</a>” in production. In other words, foreign workers and native workers can specialize in different tasks, and a major influx of immigrants might cause native-born workers to reallocate their labour to their comparative advantage.</p>
<p>For example, native workers have an advantage in jobs that require strong local language skills, and part of the reason the Miami economy was able to absorb the large influx of workers so easily is that native-born workers reallocated their labour to jobs that require strong English-language communication skills. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People celebrate at a festival and wave Cuban and American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426460/original/file-20211014-21-1r98hpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People wave American and Cuban flags as they dance to music at the Calle Ocho Festival, the largest Hispanic festival in the U.S. that attracts thousands to the Little Havana neighbourhood of Miami every year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the case is far from closed on this issue, and part of Card’s legacy is the continued attempt to rigorously understand the relationship between immigration and the labour market. </p>
<h2>Card’s profound influence on economics</h2>
<p>There is a nice parallel here with Card’s other landmark paper on the minimum wage. It also involved an early application of the difference-in-differences methodology to a couple of American states, one that upped its minimum wage and another that didn’t. </p>
<p>There too, Card found a null effect — a modest increase in the minimum wage had no effect on worker unemployment. This finding also sent labour economists back to the drawing board, as it effectively refuted the accepted wisdom at the time that government-imposed wage increases should reduce demand for workers and lead to higher unemployment. The result has been continued careful study on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz014">how the minimum wage affects unemployment</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue jacket sits at his desk with a laptop in front of him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426465/original/file-20211014-25-vwkli3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Card sits in his office at the University of California, Berkeley.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Noah Berger)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s remarkable that, in a field that disproportionately rewards the discovery of large causal effects, Card has been recognized for helping revolutionize the practice of applied economics by writing two papers that showed null effects.</p>
<p>The impact Card has had on economics is hard to overstate. He is rightfully considered one of the engineers of the so-called “<a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/10/11/the-nobel-prize-in-economics-celebrates-an-empirical-revolution">credibility revolution</a>” in economics, which has made empirical economics the area of choice for the vast majority of graduate students in the past 20 years. </p>
<p>Every cohort of graduate or upper-year undergraduate students is taught about the concept of difference in differences through the lens of Card’s famous work, and it is hard to imagine that changing any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arvind Magesan receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC)</span></em></p>Canadian economist David Card won the Nobel Prize in economics for demonstrating that large-scale immigration has no effect on the wages of native-born workers. In doing so, he’s challenged Economics 101.Arvind Magesan, Professor of Economics, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1672752021-09-30T12:30:15Z2021-09-30T12:30:15ZHavana syndrome fits the pattern of psychosomatic illness – but that doesn’t mean symptoms aren’t real<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423680/original/file-20210928-19356-189xxis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C2561%2C1501&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In late 2016, people working and living in the embassy district of Havana, including at the U.S. Embassy seen here, began hearing strange sounds before getting sick. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IntelligenceEnergyWaveAttacks/833076ed9b924991b0f1c8bfdd10ab9a/photo?Query=havana%20AND%20syndrome&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Desmond Boylan</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the ailments collectively dubbed “Havana syndrome” suffered by U.S. diplomats and intelligence operatives were <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/01/1160457170/u-s-intelligence-foreign-rivals-didnt-cause-havana-syndrome">“highly unlikely” to have been caused by a foreign government</a>, according to news organizations briefed by intelligence officials familiar with the seven-agency investigation.</p>
<p>Like most people, I first heard about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40746-9">Havana syndrome</a> in the summer of 2017. Cuba was allegedly attacking employees of the U.S. Embassy in Havana in their homes and hotel rooms <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-ap-top-news-barack-obama-politics-cuba-51828908c6c84d78a29e833d0aae10aa">using a mysterious weapon</a>. The victims reported a variety of symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, hearing loss, fatigue, mental fog and difficulty concentrating after hearing an eerie sound.</p>
<p>Over the next year and a half, many theories were put forward regarding the symptoms and how a weapon may have caused them. Despite the lack of hard evidence, many experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.1742">suggested</a> that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lio2.231">weapon</a> of some sort <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/25889">was causing</a> the symptoms.</p>
<p>I am an <a href="https://www.uclahealth.org/providers/robert-baloh">emeritus professor of neurology</a> who studies the inner ear, and my clinical focus is on dizziness and hearing loss. When news of these events broke, I was baffled. But after reading descriptions of the patients’ symptoms and test results, I began to doubt that some mysterious weapon was the cause.</p>
<p>I have seen patients with the same symptoms as the embassy employees on a regular basis in my Dizziness Clinic at the University of California, Los Angeles. Most have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59181-6">psychosomatic symptoms</a> – meaning the symptoms are real but arise from stress or emotional causes, not external ones. With a little reassurance and some treatments to lessen their symptoms, they get better.</p>
<p>The available data on Havana syndrome matches closely with mass psychogenic illness – more commonly known as mass hysteria. So what is really happening with so–called Havana syndrome?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A drawing of a brain set above sound waves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423675/original/file-20210928-18-omvetv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Embassy employees in Cuba and other countries reported hearing loud noises and then experiencing cognitive and hearing issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/brain-and-brain-waves-in-epilepsy-royalty-free-illustration/956351618?adppopup=true">Kateryna Kon/Science Photo Library via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A mysterious illness</h2>
<p>In late December 2016, an otherwise healthy undercover agent in his 30s arrived at the clinic of the U.S. Embassy in Cuba complaining of headaches, difficulty hearing and acute pain in his ear. The symptoms themselves were not alarming, but the agent reported that they developed after he heard “a beam of sound” that “<a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/diplomats-in-cuba">seemed to have been directed at his home</a>.”</p>
<p>As word of the presumed attack spread, other people in the embassy community reported similar experiences. A former CIA officer who was in Cuba at the time later noted that the first patient “was lobbying, if not coercing, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/the-real-story-behind-the-havana-embassy-mystery">people to report symptoms</a> and to connect the dots.”</p>
<p>Patients from the U.S. Embassy were first sent to ear, nose and throat doctors at the University of Miami and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40746-9">then to brain specialists in Philadelphia</a>. Physicians examined the embassy patients using a range of tests to measure hearing, balance and cognition. They also took MRIs of the patients’ brains. In the 21 patients examined, 15 to 18 experienced sleep disturbances and headaches as well as cognitive, auditory, balance and visual dysfunction. Despite these symptoms, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.1742">brain MRIs and hearing tests were normal</a>.</p>
<p>A flurry of <a href="https://enewspaper.latimes.com/infinity/article_share.aspx?guid=77128ec3-11f6-4d5f-a368-739dea563768">articles</a> appeared <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/americas/cuba-embassy-attacks.html">in the media</a>, many <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/doctors-find-neurological-damage-to-americans-who-served-in-cuba/2018/02/14/83c639a2-11de-11e8-9065-e55346f6de81_story.html">accepting the notion of an attack</a>. </p>
<p>From Cuba, Havana syndrome began to spread around the globe to <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/what-is-havana-syndrome-symptoms-cia-b1923886.html">embassies in China</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/08/23/what-is-havana-syndrome-the-puzzling-malady-plaguing-western-diplomats">Russia</a>, <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-blamed-havana-syndrome-attack-us-embassy-staff-berlin-0ldtkx7x3">Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/vienna-is-the-new-havana-syndrome-hotspot">Austria</a>, and even to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/21/what-is-havana-syndrome-us-cuba-cia-burns/">streets of Washington</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown cricket on gravel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423676/original/file-20210928-20-15d0z9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Associated Press released a recording of the sound in Cuba, and biologists identified it as the call of a species of Cuban cricket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gails_pictures/25069138829/in/photolist-ac55u-JzvyfL-EBxwHZ-brv4gF-EcgTzx-7m2LJM-k4HWp4">Gail Hampshire/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A sonic or microwave weapon?</h2>
<p>Initially, many experts and some of the physicians suggested that some sort of sonic weapon was to blame. The Miami team’s study in 2018 reported that 19 patients had dizziness caused by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/lio2.231">damage to the inner ear from some type of sonic weapon</a>. </p>
<p>This hypothesis has for the most part been discredited due to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-havana-attacks-20180612-story.html">flaws</a> in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2018.10.001">studies</a>, the fact there is no evidence that any <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/science/cuba-sonic-weapon.html">sonic weapon could selectively damage the brain and nothing else</a>, and because biologists identified the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cuba-north-america-ap-top-news-havana-latin-america-b57d889a1ebc425fa6d01002726d912e">sounds in recordings of the supposed weapon</a> to be a <a href="https://carlzimmer.com/the-sounds-that-haunted-u-s-diplomats-in-cuba-lovelorn-crickets-scientists-say/">Cuban species of cricket</a>.</p>
<p>Some people have also proposed an alternative idea: a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/science/sonic-attack-cuba-microwave.html">microwave radiation weapon</a>.</p>
<p>This hypothesis gained credibility when in December 2020, the National Academy of Science released a report concluding that “pulsed radiofrequency energy” was a <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/25889">likely cause for symptoms in at least some of the patients</a>. </p>
<p>If someone is exposed to high energy microwaves, they may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1152/jappl.1962.17.4.689">sometimes briefly hear sounds</a>. There is no actual sound, but in what is called the Frey effect, neurons in a person’s ear or brain are directly stimulated by microwaves and the person may “hear” a noise. These effects, though, are nothing like the sounds the victims described, and the simple fact that the sounds were recorded by several victims eliminates microwaves as the source. While <a href="https://theconversation.com/directed-energy-weapons-shoot-painful-but-non-lethal-beams-are-similar-weapons-behind-the-havana-syndrome-167318">directed energy weapons do exist</a>, none that I know of could explain the symptoms or sounds reported by the embassy patients.</p>
<p>Despite all these stories and theories, there is a problem: No physician has found a medical cause for the symptoms. And after more than five years of extensive searching, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/science-cuba-havana-physics-4316989d278ae353c42ef78033d9b2a5">no evidence of a weapon has been found</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A painting of people carrying other people as they dance uncontrollably." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423679/original/file-20210928-24-1exv8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mass psychogenic illness – more commonly known as mass hysteria – is a well-documented phenomenon throughout history, as seen in this painting of an outbreak of dancing mania in the Middle Ages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dance_at_Molenbeek.jpg#/media/File:Dance_at_Molenbeek.jpg">Pieter Brueghel the Younger/WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mass psychogenic illness</h2>
<p>Mass psychogenic illness is a condition whereby people in a group feel sick because they think they have been exposed to something dangerous – even though there has been no actual exposure. For example, as telephones became widely available at the turn of the 20th century, numerous telephone operators became sick with concussion-like symptoms attributed to “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022009403038002130">acoustic shock</a>.” But despite decades of reports, no research has ever <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022009403038002130">confirmed the existence of acoustic shock</a>.</p>
<p>I believe it is much more likely that mass psychogenic illness – not an energy weapon – is behind Havana syndrome.</p>
<p>Mass psychogenic illness typically begins in a stressful environment. Sometimes it <a href="https://www.aafp.org/afp/2000/1215/p2649.html">starts when an individual with an unrelated illness</a> believes something mysterious caused their symptoms. This person then spreads the idea to the people around them and even to other groups, and it is often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1258/jrsm.2012.120053">amplified by overzealous health workers and the mass media</a>. Well-documented cases of mass psychogenic illness – like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2FS0140-6736%2809%2960386-X">dancing plagues</a> of the Middle Ages – have occurred for centuries and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fbrain%2Fawab316">continue to occur on a regular basis around the world</a>. The symptoms are real, the result of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59181-6">changes in brain connections and chemistry</a>. They can also last for years.</p>
<p>The story of Havana syndrome looks to me like a textbook case of mass psychogenic illness. It started from a single undercover agent in Cuba – a person in what I imagine is a very stressful situation. This person had real symptoms, but blamed them on something mysterious – the strange sound he heard. He then told his colleagues at the embassy, and the idea spread. With the help of the media and medical community, the idea solidified and spread around the world. It checks all the boxes. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the December 2020 National Academy of Science report concluded that mass psychogenic illness was a reasonable explanation for the patients’ symptoms, particularly the chronic symptoms, but that it <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/25889">lacked “patient-level data” to make such a diagnosis</a>. </p>
<p>The Cuban government itself has been investigating the supposed attacks over the years as well. The most detailed report, released on Sept. 13, 2021, concludes that there is no evidence of directed energy weapons and says that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/science-cuba-havana-physics-4316989d278ae353c42ef78033d9b2a5">psychological causes are the only ones that cannot be dismissed</a>.</p>
<p>While not as sensational as the idea of a new secret weapon, mass psychogenic illness has historical precedents and can explain the wide variety of symptoms, lack of brain or ear damage and the subsequent spread around the world. </p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to include news about intelligence agencies’ findings about Havana syndrome.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Baloh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Havana syndrome has spread to government officials around the world and stumped doctors for years. Despite news of mysterious attacks, evidence suggests mass psychogenic illness may be the true cause.Robert Baloh, Professor of Neurology, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.