tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/employment-700/articlesEmployment – La Conversation2024-03-24T08:50:02Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255822024-03-24T08:50:02Z2024-03-24T08:50:02ZWhy do identical informal businesses set up side by side? It’s a survival tactic – Kenya study<p>The population on the African continent will have <a href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population">nearly doubled</a> by 2050, according to UN projections. About <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/reimagining-economic-growth-in-africa-turning-diversity-into-opportunity">800 million</a> more young Africans will enter the job market by then. Combine this forecast with the <a href="https://ilostat.ilo.org/african-youth-face-pressing-challenges-in-the-transition-from-school-to-work/#:%7E:text=True%2C%20nearly%2013%20million%20young,for%20and%2For%20obtaining%20jobs.">high youth unemployment rate</a> in many African countries today, then the pressing question is: who will create stable jobs at mass scale?</p>
<p>Many policies to create new employment at scale focus on solution templates that have worked elsewhere, often outside Africa. These include enabling entrepreneurship to create high-growth start-up ventures, bringing in technological advances to potentially unlock new industries, or the establishment of outsourcing hubs for low-cost labour.</p>
<p>Few policies directly support homegrown solutions that already have a track record of creating large-scale stable employment.</p>
<p>Together with my coauthors, I looked for answers in a seemingly unlikely place. <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/orsc.2023.17644">We studied</a> how car repair businesses were organised. Specifically, we studied the neighbourhood of Dagoretti Corner in Nairobi, Kenya. </p>
<p>Here, 105 largely identical car repair businesses set up shop close to one another. Imagine corrugated iron sheets as fences to demarcate businesses which offer exactly the same service in the same location. </p>
<p>This phenomenon <a href="https://www.africanbookscollective.com/books/african-markets-and-the-2028utu-buntu-business-model">is common</a> in major African cities. Thousands of different traders – from fruit sellers to furniture makers – set up next door to each other and co-locate. This doesn’t make sense as a competitive strategy, so why do it?</p>
<p>We found that these businesses do this in part because it generates an informal welfare system. In our study, the car repair businesses mutually supported each other in a variety of ways to ensure they survived and thrived. </p>
<p>Our findings make a case that policymakers should focus on supporting these informal welfare systems. They abound in urban areas and create employment at scale. Yet, policies tend to support individuals, as opposed to groups, in informal economies. This could risk eroding these welfare systems, putting livelihoods at risk.</p>
<h2>Informal welfare system</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, car repair businesses in Dagoretti Corner grew from 11 to 105 identical businesses. As the satellite images in the video below show (car repair businesses shaded in yellow), they have massively expanded and are now fully integrated into the urban infrastructure. </p>
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<p>The agglomeration of businesses in this way is often seen as a sign of failed economic and urban development policy by industry analysts, development practitioners and policy makers. They tend to believe that agglomerated businesses should reach higher levels of efficiency, competitiveness, specialisation and innovation. </p>
<p>Yet, many businesses continue to operate the same way they did a decade ago with little change or upgrading. What benefit are these businesses reaping?</p>
<p>Through our fieldwork in Dagoretti Corner, visiting car repair businesses and conducting interviews with 45 owners, we identified five ways in which business owners create their own welfare system: </p>
<p>First, they save and invest money together. This is often done in small scale, informal rotating savings and investment associations. In Kenya these are known as chamas and Savings and Credit Cooperative Organisations (Saccos) and are akin to credit unions and cooperatives. Saving money together enables owners to get a loan and enables business owners to make investments together. Rather than being competitors, businesses are interdependent and trust each other to grow together.</p>
<p>Second, businesses offer apprenticeship opportunities, enabling the youth from rural Kenya to get trained and equipping them with the knowledge and resources to start their own car repair businesses. Through apprenticeships, mechanics become familiar with the welfare system and continue its upkeep into the future.</p>
<p>Third, trust is fragile and business owners come up with ways to self-police against free riding and theft. They address competitive behaviour through self-organised committees. Poaching customers from a peer business is seen as theft and is policed. Repeated shoddy repair work and alcohol abuse among mechanics is also policed. Particularly exploitative customers are blacklisted. After all, the owners want to make sure that customers perceive Dagoretti Corner as a safe place for customers to entrust their valuable cars.</p>
<p>Fourth, businesses support each other in times of crisis when nearing bankruptcy to ensure survival. Chamas and Saccos make emergency money available to smooth over gaps. Businesses temporarily loan out their employees to other businesses to ease the financial burden of paying a wage. And businesses sub-contract repair work to distressed businesses, ensuring at least some cash flow until business picks up again.</p>
<p>Fifth, in times of personal crises when livelihoods are at stake, due to high medical bills or funeral costs, peer businesses step in and provide a type of insurance policy. Owners, employees and apprentices collectively contribute funds to support those in dire need and prevent them from slipping into destitution. This informal insurance scheme even extends to family members.</p>
<p>This informal social welfare system is critical because it provides stable employment, saving and investment opportunities and insurance at considerable scale. </p>
<p>Policies that support the growth of individual entrepreneurs in these areas – such as through training and cash infusions geared towards business differentiation – are likely to introduce competitive behaviours among identical businesses. This risks the collapse of welfare systems and thus also employment at scale.</p>
<h2>Policies must strengthen informal welfare systems</h2>
<p>We concluded from our research that policies need to further enable, strengthen and then leverage the existing welfare systems of co-locating businesses to engender firm and employment growth. These are strongholds of cooperative behaviour that need to be protected rather than transformed or displaced. </p>
<p>One way this can be done is through the creation of transparent cooperative structures and exit pathways for individual businesses to grow. This would strengthen the welfare system and needs to be the starting point of policy discussions. </p>
<p>For example, targeted governance interventions could make chamas and Saccos more robust to safeguard them against fraud and enhance their self-organising capacity. Digital technologies can play a role here to bring these saving and investment schemes into the modern age. Once made robust, cash infusions by the government to support firms in the informal economy can then happen through these rather than through separate, government-run entities. </p>
<p>We do not rule out the potential for policy interventions seeking to support individual firms. Yet, these need to be context-sensitive so that they can enable businesses to scale without eroding the social order. </p>
<p>This is just a starting point. In light of the pressing challenge to bring about labour-intensive growth in African societies, it is paramount to not only focus on importing solutions from elsewhere but to be intentional about enabling and supporting homegrown solutions that already work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Weiss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Identical informal businesses set up next to each other because they’ve created an informal welfare system.Tim Weiss, Assistant Professor, Department of Management and Entrepreneurship, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263832024-03-21T22:42:39Z2024-03-21T22:42:39ZNZ is in recession – so far there are few signs the government has a plan to stimulate and grow the economy<p>If you live in New Zealand and you’re feeling poorer, you’re not imagining it.
Stats NZ has revealed the <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/economic-activity-falls-0-1-percent-in-the-march-2023-quarter/">economy was in recession</a> over the second half of last year. GDP fell in the September and December quarters by –0.3% and –0.1% respectively.</p>
<p>Taking into account the record high levels of immigration, Westpac’s most recent <a href="https://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/Business/tools-rates-fees/documents/economic-updates/2024/Bulletins/Economic-Data_Q4-GDP-preview_bulletin_11Mar24.pdf">economic bulletin</a> estimated this may equate to GDP per person having fallen almost 4% from its peak in mid-2022.</p>
<p>What does this mean politically, then, and what can the coalition do about it?
Because the statistics are retrospective, the new government can <a href="https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/pm-christopher-luxon-outlines-government-plan-for-next-100-days-blames-recession-on-labour/">blame the old one</a> – but that won’t satisfy many people for much longer. </p>
<p>The National-led government hasn’t enjoyed a post-election honeymoon. According to an <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-nz/23rd-ipsos-nz-issues-monitor-feb-2024">IPSOS poll</a> in late February, New Zealanders rated the coalition’s performance at 4.6 out of ten – on par with the Labour government (4.7) just before the general election in October 2023.</p>
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<h2>Internal contradictions</h2>
<p>The recession also means reduced tax revenues. Logically, something will have to give when Finance Minister Nicola Willis puts the final touches on her first budget, to be delivered on May 30.</p>
<p>Tax cuts – which National has promised – could exacerbate inflation or delay its decline. Although inflation has been coming down, it’s still some way from the target 1–3% range. The December figure was 4.7%.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-first-100-days-of-tax-policy-bode-well-for-nationals-supporters-others-might-be-worried-225259">The first 100 days of tax policy bode well for National's supporters – others might be worried</a>
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<p>If income is weaker than expected, tax cuts would be paid for by deeper spending cuts, revenues raised elsewhere, or borrowing. The last option lacks credibility, given the way proposed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/26/kwarteng-mini-budget-obr-stock-market-pound">unfunded tax cuts</a> hastened the political demise of the then UK prime minister, Liz Truss, in 2022. </p>
<p>Luxon and Willis have some difficult fiscal decisions to make. And there’s pressure, <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/511978/winston-peters-signals-he-won-t-compromise-on-nz-first-election-commitments">especially from NZ First leader Winston Peters</a>, to honour the coalition agreements. Peters has already made life difficult for Willis by repeating one <a href="https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/350214837/how-big-your-fiscal-hole-national">published estimate</a> of a potential NZ$5.6 billion “gap” between National’s election promises and “current forecasts”.</p>
<h2>Missing innovation and skills policies</h2>
<p>In the meantime, people are struggling to make ends meet and appear to lack confidence in the new government. </p>
<p>According to the IPSOS poll, the National Party has often been seen as more competent than other parties to deal with the economic problems. But National is in coalition with two other partners, both of which expect to see their own policies implemented.</p>
<p>There are incentives for all three parties, however, to convince at least most people they can achieve three closely related aims:</p>
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<li>deliver a prudent budget</li>
<li>improve economic efficiency and productivity</li>
<li>stimulate innovation and skills.</li>
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<p>Judgment on the first point should be reserved until we see the budget.</p>
<p>On the second point, the government is passing a law that will allow <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/one-stop-shop-major-projects-fast-track">fast-track consenting</a> for approved projects. The government will also argue that reintroducing 90-day employment trials, for businesses with more than 20 staff, and repealing pay-equity law will help improve investment and hiring.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-wants-to-fast-track-approvals-of-large-infrastructure-projects-thats-bad-news-for-nzs-biodiversity-225790">The government wants to fast-track approvals of large infrastructure projects – that's bad news for NZ's biodiversity</a>
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<p>But the fast-track law is attracting criticism from environmental groups and legal experts for giving <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/512259/the-unprecedented-power-the-government-is-handing-three-of-its-ministers-under-its-new-fast-track-approval-bill">extraordinary powers</a> to ministers. Trade unions strongly oppose the employment law changes.</p>
<p>On the final point, the government seems to have few ideas – least of all how to prepare for the coming wave of AI-driven change. Tertiary education and research and development would be priorities here, but there are no new policy initiatives around trades training and advanced research.</p>
<h2>A lot riding on Budget 2024</h2>
<p>In the meantime, the reinstatement of <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/03/prime-minister-christopher-luxon-says-renters-very-grateful-government-bringing-back-interest-deductibility-for-landlords.html">tax deductibility of interest payments</a> on rental properties does nothing at all to contribute to fiscal prudence, productivity or innovation.</p>
<p>It simply benefits the owners of things that have already been built and sold. And it’s very unlikely to lead to lower rents, contrary to Christopher Luxon’s <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/13/renters-very-grateful-for-incoming-landlord-tax-breaks-luxon/">suggestion</a> it would apply “downward pressure” for which renters would be grateful.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/applying-for-a-home-felt-harder-than-applying-for-a-job-nz-private-rentals-wont-solve-need-for-emergency-housing-225459">'Applying for a home felt harder than applying for a job': NZ private rentals won't solve need for emergency housing</a>
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<p>No government can literally “grow the economy” – regardless of the National Party’s <a href="https://www.national.org.nz/national_will_cut_red_tape_to_grow_the_economy">pre-election hype</a>. Economies grow as people produce more efficiently more of the things others are keen to pay for. A government’s actions and policies may either help or hinder the productivity of individuals, firms and the economy as a whole.</p>
<p>The present government’s economic credibility, and hence its political viability, are more seriously in question than would normally be the case so early in its first term. </p>
<p>There are things Luxon and his team can do to turn that around. But people want and need policies that will noticeably boost their material standard of living – sooner rather than later. A lot will depend on Budget 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226383/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With voter confidence already low, the National-led coalition will have difficulty fulfilling pre-election promises while delivering a prudent budget in May.Grant Duncan, Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246012024-03-20T12:21:54Z2024-03-20T12:21:54ZWhat are microcredentials? And are they worth having?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582668/original/file-20240318-30-8cn088.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C41%2C6955%2C4616&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The payoff for microcredentials varies by profession. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/black-woman-working-from-home-office-royalty-free-image/1444291518?phrase=adult+laptop+at+home&adppopup=true">Drs Producoes via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/the-states-suffering-most-from-the-labor-shortage">private firms</a> and <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/state-and-local-government-jobs-still-havent-recovered-pandemic">governments</a> struggle to fill jobs – and with the cost of college <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/college-prices-arent-skyrocketing-but-theyre-still-too-high-for-some/">too high</a> for many students – <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2023/02/23/employers-are-all-microcredentials-survey-shows">employers</a> and <a href="https://www.nga.org/projects/skills-driven-state-community-of-practice/">elected officials</a> are searching for alternative ways for people to get good jobs without having to earn a traditional college degree.</p>
<p>Microcredentials are one such alternative. But just what are microcredentials? And do they lead to better jobs and higher earnings?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholars.org/scholar/daniel-douglas">sociologist</a> who has examined the <a href="https://smlr.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/Centers/EERC/Review%20of%20Noncredit%20Outcomes_EERC_1.4.24.pdf">research on microcredentials</a>, the best available answer right now is: It depends on what a person is studying.</p>
<h2>Defining the term</h2>
<p>While there is no official definition of a microcredential, there are some broadly accepted components. Like traditional degrees, microcredentials certify peoples’ skills and knowledge, ranging in scope from software skills like Microsoft Excel to broad abilities like project management.</p>
<p>Microcredentials typically indicate “<a href="https://www.utah.gov/pmn/files/745519.pdf">competencies</a>” – that is, things people can do. They are represented by <a href="https://cte.idaho.gov/programs-2/skillstack/">digital badges</a>, which are emblems that can be shared online. Just as a diploma verifies a degree-holder’s achievement, badges verify microcredentials. An employer can click on the digital badge to see who awarded it, when it was awarded and what it represents. </p>
<p>Microcredentials also allow people to verify what they already know, such as a person who is an experienced Python coder, or what they acquire through short-term learning and assessments. An experienced coder in the Python programming language could take an assessment and earn a microcredential, as could a novice after completing a programming course. Either way, microcredentials “<a href="https://www.nea.org/professional-excellence/professional-learning/micro-credentials">allow an individual to show mastery in a certain area</a>.”</p>
<p>What usually distinguishes microcredentials from other short-term learning, like <a href="https://online.wvu.edu/blog/education/online-learning/what-is-the-difference-between-a-certificate-and-a-micro-credential">nondegree certificates</a>, is duration. Certificates typically take longer. The other difference is location: Microcredentials are typically completed online.</p>
<p>Data from <a href="https://credentialengine.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Final-CountingCredentials_2022.pdf">Credential Engine</a>, a nonprofit organization that catalogs education and training credentials, and <a href="https://www.classcentral.com/microcredentials">Class Central</a>, a searchable index of online courses, indicate that business, IT and programming, and health care are popular focus areas for microcredentials.</p>
<h2>A growing trend</h2>
<p>Many colleges and universities, such as <a href="https://www.suny.edu/microcredentials/">SUNY</a>, <a href="https://ecampus.oregonstate.edu/online-degrees/microcredentials/">Oregon State</a> and <a href="https://extension.harvard.edu/academics/microcertificates/">Harvard</a>,
offer microcredentials. But they are also offered through social media companies like <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/learning/">LinkedIn Learning</a> and private providers like <a href="https://campus.edx.org/">EdX</a> and <a href="https://www.coursera.org/">Coursera</a>. Professional organizations like the <a href="https://www.nea.org/professional-excellence/professional-learning/micro-credentials">National Education Association</a> also award microcredentials.</p>
<p>Some microcredentials directly prepare learners to become industry certified – like SkillStorm’s CompTIA A+ certification, <a href="https://stormsurge-catalog.skillstorm.com/courses/comptia-a">an eight-week online course</a> that prepares learners to work in IT support and help desk roles. Others focus on general employability skills – like Binghamton University’s <a href="https://www.credly.com/org/binghamton-university/badge/watson-career-development-essentials">course in career readiness</a>, which helps learners develop their resume, cover letter and LinkedIn profile. It also provides a mock interview opportunity. Some microcredentials are <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/opinion/blogs/beyond-transfer/2023/10/05/how-build-stackable-credentials">“stackable”</a> – meaning that they indicate related skills. Someone pursuing a health care career, for example, might earn stackable microcredentials in clinical medical assisting, phlebotomy and as a electrocardiogram – or EKG – technician. </p>
<p>Some microcredential programs are <a href="https://registrar.oregonstate.edu/microcredentials">credit-bearing</a> and may serve as entry points to degree or certificate programs. </p>
<p>Because of the short duration of microcredential programs, most are not regulated by Title IV of the <a href="https://fsapartners.ed.gov/knowledge-center/library/functional-area/Overview%20of%20Title%20IV">U.S. Higher Education Act</a> and are not typically eligible for federal financial aid, which only covers programs lasting 15 weeks or longer.</p>
<p>If Congress passes the <a href="https://edworkforce.house.gov/uploadedfiles/h.r._6585.pdf">Bipartisan Workforce Pell Act</a>, some microcredentials – those that last eight weeks or more – could become eligible for financial aid. But until there is a final bill, it is unclear whether and how legislation would impact learners pursuing microcredentials. The bill was set to be considered on Feb. 28, 2024, but that <a href="https://www.aamc.org/advocacy-policy/washington-highlights/house-postpones-vote-bipartisan-workforce-pell-act#">vote has been postponed</a>.</p>
<h2>Who seeks microcredentials?</h2>
<p>In 2021 and 2022, my colleagues and I surveyed <a href="https://smlr.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/Centers/EERC/Noncredit%20Students%20at%20Two%20Community%20Colleges%20Final%20-%20EERC%20-%20August%202023.pdf">more than 300 students pursuing noncredit programs</a> at two community colleges. The students are similar to microcredential seekers in that they’re doing short-term programs that are often hybrid or fully online.</p>
<p>Our survey showed that the vast majority – over 90% – were over 25 years old and that most – over 65% – had prior college experience, including many who had earned degrees or certificates.</p>
<p>The majority of surveyed students indicated that their programs were either free or employer-sponsored. About a fourth said they wanted to get out of low-wage jobs or advance in their current jobs. Between 35% and 50% said they wanted to explore a career change.</p>
<p>Many noncredit programs at community colleges are offered partially or fully in-person, while microcredentials are more typically earned online. While online programs may be convenient, they are also known for <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244015621777">high withdrawal rates</a>. Nondegree programs of study also have very <a href="https://smlr.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/Centers/EERC/Review%20of%20Noncredit%20Outcomes_EERC_1.4.24.pdf">low completion rates</a>.</p>
<h2>Which microcredentials pay off?</h2>
<p>Credentials in traditionally male-dominated fields, such as IT and construction specialties, yielded substantial benefits – lower unemployment rates and far higher wages. Credentials in female-dominated fields, such as education and administrative support, yielded little to no benefit in terms of either employment rates or earnings. These findings come from a 2019 <a href="https://go.stradaeducation.org/certified-value">survey of adults without degrees</a>.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that salaries can <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/education-policy/reports/paying-more-and-getting-less/">vary widely</a>. For instance, people in fields such as IT cloud computing may see a pay boost of US$20,000, whereas people in office administration and certain education-related jobs may not see any salary increase. Credentials in these fields are less likely to be employer-sponsored. </p>
<p>Should you get a microcredential? The answer certainly depends on your current employment situation – including your employer’s willingness to sponsor training – and your career goals. While <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2023/02/23/employers-are-all-microcredentials-survey-shows">95% of employers see benefits</a> in their employees earning a microcredential, 46% are “unsure of the quality of education” represented by microcredentials, and 33% are unsure of their alignment with industry standards.</p>
<p>Given the lack of systematic evidence at this point, I believe their concerns are warranted. Federal and state regulation could lead to better data collection and more quality control for microcredentials.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Douglas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The credentials can be earned online in a matter of weeks and may lead to higher salaries, but not always.Daniel Douglas, Lecturer in Sociology, Trinity CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230912024-02-21T19:12:53Z2024-02-21T19:12:53ZWorking from home is producing economic benefits return-to-office rules would quash<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576794/original/file-20240220-28-rkdhd8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C198%2C1744%2C868&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>More of us have been in paid work this past year than ever before. A big part of that is because more of us have been able to work from home than ever before.</p>
<p>The proportion of Australians in paid work climbed above <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">64%</a> in May last year, and has stayed there since. At the same time, unemployment has hovered around a half-century low of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">4%</a>.</p>
<p>In April last year, female unemployment fell to what is almost certainly an all-time low of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">3.3%</a>.</p>
<p>It’s working from home – actually, working from anywhere – that has been the game-changer, as the most enduring change to the way we work to have come out of the pandemic.</p>
<h2>The jump in working from home</h2>
<p>Before the pandemic, in 2019, the share of the workforce who usually work at least partly from home was 25%. Three years on in 2022, it was 36%. </p>
<p>These numbers from the latest <a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-data-show-womens-job-prospects-improving-relative-to-mens-and-the-covid-changes-might-have-helped-222897">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia</a> (HILDA) Survey show there’s also been a shift in who’s working from home.</p>
<p>Before the pandemic, a greater share of men than women worked from home. Now it’s a greater share of women.</p>
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<p>Among both women and men, the biggest jump has been among parents with young children.</p>
<p>The proportion of mothers with children under five working at least partly from home has leapt from 31% to 43%.</p>
<p>The working-from-home rate for fathers with children under five has jumped from 29% to 39%.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fancy-an-e-change-how-people-are-escaping-city-congestion-and-living-costs-by-working-remotely-123165">Fancy an e-change? How people are escaping city congestion and living costs by working remotely</a>
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<h2>Which workers, which jobs?</h2>
<p>Before the pandemic, managers and professionals were the workers most likely to work from home. They still are, with up to 60% dialling in from the home office for at least part of their work week.</p>
<p>But it’s clerical and administrative workers – occupations that are about three-quarters female – who had the biggest jump in working from home. Their pre-pandemic rate of 18% has soared to 42%.</p>
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<p>In terms of industries, finance and insurance led the pack before the pandemic and still do, with rates doubling to 85%. </p>
<p>Working from home is now also the norm in information media and telecommunications (74%) and public administration and safety (72%).</p>
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<p>In the traditionally male industry of construction, women’s working-from-home rates have soared from 34% to 45%. </p>
<p>It’s well above the men’s rate of 24%, which is largely unchanged. </p>
<p>While this reflects the different types of jobs that men and women do in construction, it also suggests working from home is a way to boost women’s involvement, even in this industry.</p>
<h2>More workers, better-matched</h2>
<p>The benefit of working from home for the economy has been fewer obstacles getting in the way of matching jobseekers to employers. Distance and location are no longer the deal-breakers they were.</p>
<p>Better job-matching means <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576896/original/file-20240220-30-ca0a0r.PNG">less unemployment</a>, and the heightened prospect of finding a good job match encourages jobseekers who in earlier times might have given up.</p>
<p>In finance and insurance – the industry with the biggest and fastest-growing rate of working from home – the proportion of jobs that were vacant fell from 2.5% before the pandemic to just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/jobs/job-vacancies-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">1.7%</a> by the end of 2023.</p>
<h2>Return-to-office mandates would set us back</h2>
<p>Making workers <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-australian-employers-stop-you-working-from-home-heres-what-the-law-says-211339">return to the office</a> for jobs that can be effectively done from home would unravel the economic benefits that have been achieved.</p>
<p>Fewer people, especially women and parents with young children, would put themselves forward for work. The pool of skills that employers are looking for would shrink. And job-matching in the labour market becomes less efficient.</p>
<p>The result would be more Australians unemployed, and more Australians dropping out of the paid workforce, than if we had continued to embrace working from home. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-employers-stop-you-working-from-home-heres-what-the-law-says-211339">Can employers stop you working from home? Here's what the law says</a>
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<p>Working from home still comes with <a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-finds-working-from-home-boosts-womens-job-satisfaction-more-than-mens-and-that-has-a-downside-195641">challenges</a>. Workers who are less visible in the office are more likely to be <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/10/what-is-proximity-bias-and-how-can-managers-prevent-it">overlooked</a>.</p>
<p>But it has a wider economic benefit we have a chance to hold on to.</p>
<p>The extraordinary transformation of our labour market means it shouldn’t be seen as a “favour” to workers, but as a favour to us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leonora Risse receives research funding from the Trawalla Foundation and the Women's Leadership Institute Australia. She is a member of the Economic Society of Australia and the Women's in Economics Network. She declares that she works partly from home, for family care-giving reasons.</span></em></p>Working from home is bringing more of us into the workforce and better matching us to jobs. It shouldn’t be seen as a favour to us, but as a favour to the economy.Leonora Risse, Associate Professor in Economics, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2217062024-02-14T13:23:27Z2024-02-14T13:23:27ZRevving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570748/original/file-20240122-21-hh4b9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=95%2C59%2C7871%2C5160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sergio-perez-of-oracle-red-bull-racing-f1-team-and-charles-news-photo/1790416613">Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever <a href="https://www.f1lasvegasgp.com">Las Vegas Grand Prix</a>. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “<a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80204890">Formula 1: Drive to Survive</a>.”</p>
<p>But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As <a href="http://hhp.ufl.edu/about/faculty-staff/rachel_fu/">the inaugural chair</a> of the University of Florida’s <a href="https://hhp.ufl.edu/about/departments/them/">department of tourism, hospitality and event management</a>, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJEFM-10-2019-080/full/pdf?title=event-and-festival-research-a-review-and-research-directions">a growing share</a> of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them. </p>
<p>And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574695/original/file-20240209-30-b8vl6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Katherine Fu</span></span>
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<h2>The future of tourism is in events and experiences</h2>
<p>Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the <a href="https://www.ustravel.org/research/industry-impact">U.S.</a> alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both <a href="https://www.ifea.com">industry leaders</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.017">academics are paying attention</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/2015/07/25/from-lollapalooza-to-nfl-draft-high-profile-events-paying-off-for-chicago/">Event tourism is also key</a> to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/politics/lollapalooza-boosts-chicago-economy-422-million-2023-impact-study-says">an estimated $422 million</a> for the local economy and drew <a href="https://www.chicagobusiness.com/tourism/lollapalooza-2023-attendance-pays-hotels-restaurants">record-breaking crowds</a> to the city’s hotels.</p>
<p>That’s why when Formula One announced it would be <a href="https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/35612895/las-vegas-approves-plan-hold-f1-race-2032">making a 10-year commitment</a> to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was <a href="https://press.lvcva.com/news-releases/formula-1-will-race-in-las-vegas-from-2023/s/766a27f9-57f8-48a2-a369-74ffeaf98e0f">eager to spread the news</a>. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated <a href="https://theathletic.com/5081391/2023/11/22/las-vegas-grand-prix-attendance-viewership-numbers/#">$100 million in tax revenue</a>, the head of that agency later announced.</p>
<h2>Why Formula One?</h2>
<p>Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated <a href="https://www.libertymedia.com/news/detail/485/liberty-media-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year">about $2.6 billion</a> in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and <a href="https://www.libertymedia.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/42/liberty-media-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year">27% from 2019</a>, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019. </p>
<p>This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570745/original/file-20240122-25-xaj1jo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rachel Fu</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond. </p>
<p>This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.</p>
<h2>How hospitality and business programs should prepare students</h2>
<p>To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential. </p>
<p>Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on <a href="https://theathletic.com/4950077/2023/10/11/f1-sustainability-climate-change/">environmental responsibility</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/26/climate-emergency-accelerates-f1-efforts-to-clean-up-image">in recent years</a>. While some critics <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/21/after-the-flood-storms-lie-ahead-for-formula-one-in-race-to-hit-carbon-zero">have been skeptical</a> of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2021.100393">contributes to climate change and is threatened by it</a>. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism. </p>
<p>Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important. </p>
<p>Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the <a href="https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-fans-becoming-younger-and-more-diverse-say-global-survey-results-/6696732/">younger generation’s growing interest</a> in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts. </p>
<h2>Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow</h2>
<p>F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a <a href="https://www.ktnv.com/news/vegas-grand-prix/las-vegas-grand-prix-ceo-boasts-attendance-of-315k-claims-race-will-have-1-2b-economic-impact">strategic move</a> in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2024.html">Looking ahead in 2024</a>, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/sports/autoracing/formula-1-broadcast-technology.html">broadcasting technology</a> and <a href="https://formulapedia.com/the-evolution-of-f1-sponsorship-deals-a-historic-overview/">evolving sponsorship models</a> are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.drive-to-survive-season-6-release-date-announced-by-netflix.6ZS1GdHlVRpNc9dxA9kZ8F.html">Feb. 23</a>, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.</p>
<p>I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.Rachel J.C. Fu, Chair & Professor of Dept. of Tourism, Hospitality and Event Management | Director of the Eric Friedheim Tourism Institute | Affiliate Professor of Dept. of Information Systems and Operations Management, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225802024-02-13T20:22:20Z2024-02-13T20:22:20ZImmigrants do work that might not otherwise get done – bolstering the US economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574706/original/file-20240209-22-8e58kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C303%2C6889%2C4215&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hundreds protested peacefully in Immokalee, Fla., against a state law enacted in 2023 that imposes restrictions on undocumented immigrants.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Florida%20Day%20Without%20Immigrants/f748660925de4eb49e9de66ebcb24178?Query=immigrant%20workers&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1114&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Although Congress is failing to pass laws to restrict the number of migrants arriving in the U.S., a majority of Americans – about 6 in 10 – <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889">believe there’s an immigration crisis</a> along the Mexico-U.S. border. Politicians who want fewer people to move here often cast those arriving without prior authorization as a <a href="https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/lawmakers-push-north-star-act-in-effort-to-make-minnesota-sanctuary-state-republicans-warn-of-economic-burden/">burden on the economy</a>.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://stockton.academia.edu/RamyaVIjaya">economist who has researched immigration and employment</a>, I’m <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/59710-Outlook-2024.pdf">confident that economic trends</a> and research findings contradict those arguments.</p>
<p>The U.S. is <a href="https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/understanding-americas-labor-shortage">experiencing a labor market shortage</a> that is likely to last well into the future as the U.S.-born population gets older overall, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/labor-force-and-macroeconomic-projections.htm">slowing growth in the number of workers</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than a drain on the economy, an uptick in immigration presents an opportunity to alleviate this shortage. Data from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1759815">my own research</a> and studies conducted by other scholars show that immigrant workers in the U.S. are more likely to be active in the labor market – either employed or looking for work – and tend to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-immigrant-workforce-supports-millions-of-u-s-jobs/">work in professions with</a> the most unmet demand.</p>
<h2>Help really wanted</h2>
<p>The U.S. had <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf">9 million job openings</a> in December 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The government agency also found that there were <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">6.1 million unemployed people</a> actively seeking paid work.</p>
<p>Economists generally compare the two numbers to calculate the labor shortage. It currently stands at nearly 3 million workers, and the bureau expects this gap to grow as <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf">the population ages and people have fewer children</a> over the next decade.</p>
<p>In other words, the U.S. faces a long-term shortage of people looking for employment.</p>
<p>That shortfall would be much bigger without foreign-born workers, who accounted for a <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/foreign-born-workers-were-a-record-high-18-1-percent-of-the-u-s-civilian-labor-force-in-2022.htm">record high of 18.1%</a> of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
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<h2>More likely to be active in the workforce</h2>
<p>Another reason why immigrants can help fill that big hole in the U.S. labor market is that so many of them tend to be employed or are looking for work. </p>
<p>About <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/forbrn.pdf">65.9% of all people who were born elsewhere</a> were either employed or actively looking for work as of 2022, in comparison to 61.5% of people born in the U.S. </p>
<p>This difference has been <a href="https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2022/11/the-foreign-born-labor-force-of-the-united-states">consistent since 2007</a>, according to research by the Peterson Foundation, a think tank that focuses on long-term budget problems.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1759815">study I conducted a few years ago</a>, I found that immigrants who arrive in the United States as refugees fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries are eventually more likely to be employed or looking for work than people who are born in the U.S.</p>
<h2>More home health aides and janitors</h2>
<p>Some of the labor market’s biggest shortages are especially acute in professions that tend to attract immigrants, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-daunting-economics-of-elder-care-are-about-to-get-much-worse-83123">such as home health aides</a>.</p>
<p>The health care and social services sector as a whole has about <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm">1.8 million</a> open jobs, the largest number of job openings currently available.</p>
<p>This is followed by professional and business services with 1.7 million open jobs. This <a href="https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag60.htm">category encompasses everything from legal services to janitorial work</a>, including cleaning and grounds maintenance.</p>
<p>Currently, about <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/forbrn.pdf">22% of employed immigrants work</a> in one of those two high-demand categories or another service occupation.</p>
<h2>Making it easier to age in place</h2>
<p>A team of economists has found that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12607">cost of home health care and support services is lower</a> than average in places with large numbers of immigrant service workers. This in turn makes it more likely that older adults can avoid institutionalization and stay in their own homes. </p>
<p>But, to be sure, immigrant workers providing these vital community support services often <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/amajethics.2022.890">endure exploitative</a> working conditions. </p>
<p>The labor market data not only makes it clear that the U.S. economy can absorb large numbers of immigrants, but it shows that these newcomers could be a much-needed solution to a labor supply crisis.</p>
<p>And yet people arriving in the U.S. as political asylum applicants are enduring <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/one-answer-to-the-migration-crisis-jobs/54096526-f974-11ed-bafc-bf50205661da_story.html">backlogs and facing hurdles in securing employment authorization</a>, which is delaying their entry into the workforce.</p>
<p>Wouldn’t it make more sense for Congress to expand pathways for legal employment access for migrants? From an economic perspective, that seems to be the most prudent course of action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramya Devan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite widespread fears about immigrants being a burden, even those arriving as asylum applicants are more likely to work than the US-born population.Ramya Devan, Professor of Economics, Stockton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227532024-02-12T19:09:46Z2024-02-12T19:09:46ZForget about a job for life. Today’s workers need to prepare for many jobs across multiple industries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574848/original/file-20240212-18-gttvoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C228%2C4741%2C3301&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/on-job-training-121088338">Everett Collection/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Both my parents worked for 30-plus years for their employers – they had lifelong careers at a single company. Growing up, they taught me the importance of “loyalty” and “commitment”.</p>
<p>But in a rapidly changing world, the concept of a job for life has become as rare as a dial-up internet connection.</p>
<p>This shift from stable, long-term employment and single-employer careers to a world where frequent job changes are the norm comes directly from globalisation, rapid technological advancements and the changing ideas about work.</p>
<h2>Why such rapid change now?</h2>
<p>Globalisation has turned the world economy into a giant, interconnected web. This has made job markets fiercely competitive and <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2010-24302-001">talent and opportunities</a> in the labour market more diverse and digitally accessible. </p>
<p>Jobs can be widely publicised and explored online and are no longer tied to your city of birth. Add to this the rapid technological progress. We now live in a world where the skills you learned yesterday might not be enough for today’s job market.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/older-workers-still-struggle-with-work-life-balance-and-theres-no-one-size-fits-all-remedy-217080">Older workers still struggle with work-life balance – and there’s no one-size-fits-all remedy</a>
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<p>The job market is transforming, with new careers emerging as automation and artificial intelligence (AI) advances. Risks and price policies can be efficiently assessed using AI, making insurance underwriters redundant while advanced software in banking and finance mean data analysis can be automated.</p>
<p>Online booking has reduced demand for travel agents and desktop publishers are being replaced by user-friendly software, which allows people to create their own materials. These changes highlight the need for professionals to update their skills and adapt to a technologically evolving job market.</p>
<p>As a result, career paths have become fluid and <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/13620430410518147/full/html">multi-directional</a>. It’s no longer just about climbing the corporate ladder and getting a regular paycheck; it’s about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1053482218306788">exploring different paths,</a> switching jobs and industries and sometimes even venturing into freelancing and the gig economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of men and women in business wear stand in line waiting to climb a ladder" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574852/original/file-20240212-20-1fpq5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Work is no longer just about climbing the corporate ladder and getting a regular paycheck.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-group-climbing-ladder-isolated-over-42188392">ESB Professional/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Workers’ priorities have been changed by the pandemic</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown this <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9487153/">trend into overdrive</a>. It has highlighted the need for workers and employers to be flexible to adjust to remote work, evolving job demands and uncertain prospects. Many people have reevaluated their career choices. They want greater work/life balance and adaptability in a changing world. </p>
<p>Increasingly, many workers are developing a <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/09/how-to-build-your-personal-brand-at-work">personal brand</a>, which involves building a narrative based on their individual skills. This is enriched through online education and skill development courses which makes them stand out in the workplace and more likely to access better opportunities. </p>
<p>But if employers don’t provide opportunities to use these skills, employees might decide to look elsewhere.</p>
<h2>Does moving jobs equal disloyalty?</h2>
<p>Loyalty is defined as an employee’s <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1993-03708-001">commitment to their organisation and its goals</a>. It means a willingness to put in extra effort and to uphold the company’s values and objectives. Loyal workers often identify strongly with their workplace, are reliable and view the organisation positively, even during tough times.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three female friends sitting on a couch as they have a cup of coffee" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574859/original/file-20240212-14344-z7khhk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Many people have re-evaluated their lives since the pandemic with many seeking greater work/life balance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/search/family-and-friends?gender=female&image_type=photo&mreleased=true">Antonio Guillem/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>When long-term employees change workplaces, it does not mean they are disloyal. It signifies a change in priorities and a redefined loyalty bond. Employees are loyal to their employer and its interests while working there. But they also seek mutual growth and expect to be recognised and rewarded. </p>
<p>Career paths are now a kaleidoscope of experiences and opportunities. Instead of a career identity being about a company brand, it is about skills, experiences and the meaningfulness of the work. This transformation means career decision-making is more intricate, considering personal aspirations, market trends and family considerations.</p>
<h2>How are employers coping with this shift?</h2>
<p>Employers are rethinking strategies for career development with emphasis on providing diverse and flexible career opportunities, supporting continuous learning, and acknowledging <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Working-Identity-Unconventional-Strategies-Reinventing/dp/1591394139">unconventional career paths</a>. This approach is not only in response to the changing nature of work but also a strategy to attract and retain talent in a highly competitive job market.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-concerned-about-ai-is-the-federal-government-doing-enough-to-mitigate-risks-221300">Australians are concerned about AI. Is the federal government doing enough to mitigate risks?</a>
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<p>And for the individuals stepping into the workforce, the message is clear: take charge of your career development. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13678868.2020.1779576?casa_token=QoSUWqdEl1oAAAAA%3AgxNhTqiQjtYrZpHSeLI1TsOKjMGm0BcMbfeJrwIhhCrvx03WSougMT7LRWPxNeFf8aGkGPK81Mw">Be proactive, embrace change, continually update your skills</a> and be ready to navigate through transitions and uncertainties. In these dynamic career landscapes, adaptability and resilience are your best allies. </p>
<p>The ability to adjust quickly to new roles, learn new skills, and navigate uncertain job markets is essential for career success in the modern era.</p>
<p>In summary, the career landscape is evolving as is the nature of commitment. The new mantra for organisations and individuals is <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/16/5986">adaptability, continuous learning and resilience</a>. As the world of work evolves, the key to success is embracing change and crafting a fulfilling, meaningful career that aligns with personal interests and life goals.
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruchi Sinha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea of a job for life is disappearing as the labour market transforms and new careers emerge as a result of automation and artificial intelligence.Ruchi Sinha, Senior Lecturer, Organisational Behaviour & Management, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228972024-02-11T19:07:44Z2024-02-11T19:07:44ZHILDA data show women’s job prospects improving relative to men’s, and the COVID changes might have helped<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574298/original/file-20240208-30-m3prdb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=215%2C257%2C3550%2C1856&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-people-shaking-hands-finishing-meeting-605124179">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The latest <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports">HILDA survey</a> shows Australia’s gender gap in employment continuing to close, with progress beginning on the earnings gap. </p>
<p>Remarkably, the progress has continued notwithstanding the disruptions caused by COVID; there are indications they may even have helped.</p>
<p>Funded by the Australian government and managed by the Melbourne Institute, the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey is one of Australia’s most valuable social research tools.</p>
<p>HILDA examined the lives of 14,000 Australians in 2001 and has kept coming back each year to discover what has changed. By surveying their children as well, and in future surveying their grandchildren, it is building up a long-term picture of how the lives of Australians are changing.</p>
<h2>Employment lifting</h2>
<p>The full span of the surveys through to the results for 2021 released this morning shows shows the proportion of women aged 18 to 64 in paid employment climbed from 64.3% in 2001 to 74.1% in 2019 before dipping during COVID and then bouncing back.</p>
<p>Separate labour force figures collected by the Bureau of Statistics suggest it might be as high as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/dec-2023#all-data-downloads">76%</a> by now, indicating that COVID may have merely dented rather than turned back progress.</p>
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<p>For men of that age, the proportion in paid employment has changed little during those two decades, fluctuating between 80% and 84%, allowing the gap in employment between men and women to narrow eight percentage points.</p>
<p>Older women aged 65 to 69 are also much more likely to be employed. Most of the gain has taken place since 2009 when one in ten women of that age were in paid employment, a figure that has since climbed to one in four, not too far off the one in three men of that age employed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/older-women-are-doing-remarkable-things-its-time-for-putdowns-to-end-199500">Older women are doing remarkable things – it's time for putdowns to end</a>
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<p>Much of the increase would be due to the phased increase in the female pension age between <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/SuperChron">1995 and 2004</a> and the further increase in both the male and female pension age between <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/wayne-swan-2007/media-releases/secure-and-sustainable-pension-reform-age-pension-age">2017 and 2023</a>. Broader social and economic changes such as the increase in two-earner couples will have also played a role.</p>
<p>While men remain well ahead in full-time employment, that gap is narrowing too. The proportion of women aged 18 to 64 employed full-time has climbed from around 35% to around 40% while the proportion for men has stayed close to 70%.</p>
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<p><a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/2874177/HILDA-report_Low-Res_10.10.18.pdf">Previous HILDA reports</a> have shown the arrival of children remains an important driver of divergence in the labour market experiences of men and women.</p>
<p>The arrival of a couple’s first child sees hours of paid work of the mother plummet and in many cases not recover for more than a decade. It has almost no effect on the paid working time of fathers. </p>
<p>Time spent on housework and child care, by contrast, rises dramatically for mothers and actually falls slightly for fathers.</p>
<p>If the gender gap in employment is to be eliminated, it is clear couples with children will need to share the load more equally. </p>
<h2>Wages lifting</h2>
<p>Male and female earnings have been converging slower than male and female employment, but the pace has picked up.</p>
<p>In 2001, women employed full-time earned on average 79% of what men earned. As recently as 2016, they still earned only 78% of what men earned. </p>
<p>But, since then, their earnings relative to male earnings have shot up, hitting 86% in 2021. </p>
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<p>The gap in earnings of all employees – full-time and part-time – is greater because women are more likely to be employed part-time, but growth in the number of women employed full-time means this gap is closing faster. Average female earnings have climbed from 66% of male earnings in 2001 to 75% in 2021.</p>
<h2>How COVID might have helped</h2>
<p>While the pandemic seemed to hurt women’s employment prospects <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/womens-work/">more</a> than men’s, longer term it seems to be improving the relative position of women.</p>
<p>HILDA shows the proportion of employees working from home in 2020 and 2021 has increased substantially. </p>
<p>The proportion working any hours at home climbed from 25.1% in 2019 to 37.3% in 2021. The proportion working only at home climbed from 3.5% to 17.7%. </p>
<p>There has also been a sizeable rise in the proportion of employees reporting an entitlement to work from home, from 35% in 2019 to 45%. </p>
<p>While the increases were greatest in the regions that experienced extensive lockdowns – Victoria, NSW and the ACT – working from home increased in almost all parts of Australia.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-finds-working-from-home-boosts-womens-job-satisfaction-more-than-mens-and-that-has-a-downside-195641">HILDA finds working from home boosts women's job satisfaction more than men's, and that has a downside</a>
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<p>HILDA shows women have been more likely to work from home than men since COVID, even after accounting for differences in the occupations and industries in which they work.</p>
<p>This is probably because of an increase in the number and types of jobs that can be worked at home by mothers with caring responsibilities. </p>
<p>But this latest 2021 HILDA survey also reveals another gender gap in the labour market: women are more likely to work while unwell, including working at the workplace while unwell. </p>
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<p>There are health risks from working from home while unwell and also career risks from working at home. Being physically present in the workplace is likely to assist with <a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-finds-working-from-home-boosts-womens-job-satisfaction-more-than-mens-and-that-has-a-downside-195641">career advancement</a>.</p>
<p>“Out of sight” can mean “out of mind” when it comes to promotions.</p>
<h2>Some small steps on sharing the caring</h2>
<p>Also providing a glimmer of hope for closing the gender gaps in the labour market is that, among parents with children, we’ve seen an increase in the time men have been spending on household chores and looking after the children. </p>
<p>The improvement accelerated slightly in 2020 and 2021, via both an increase in the hours worked on domestic chores by men and a slight decrease for women. </p>
<p>But there is a long way to go. In 2021, mothers of dependent children were still spending 75% more time on unpaid housework and child care than their male partners.</p>
<p>The mothers spent <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports">53 hours</a> per week. Their male partners spent 30 hours.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hilda-survey-at-a-glance-7-charts-reveal-were-smoking-less-taking-more-drugs-and-still-binge-drinking-223004">HILDA survey at a glance: 7 charts reveal we're smoking less, taking more drugs and still binge drinking</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Wilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The gender wage and employment gaps are narrowing, and working from home is helping drive the change.Roger Wilkins, Professorial Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2224922024-02-11T13:51:45Z2024-02-11T13:51:45ZNew research debunks the ‘unhappy worker’ narrative, but finds most still believe it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573929/original/file-20240206-18-uhr8gf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C78%2C8635%2C5696&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After years of negative rhetoric, a mindset shift towards believing work isn’t a necessary evil couldn’t hurt.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a sociologist who studies how people think and feel about work, I’ve been struck by the unflattering cultural narrative that has intensified around work in recent years. </p>
<p>The so-called “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/why-2022-was-the-real-year-of-the-great-resignation.html">Great Resignation</a>” of 2021 and 2022 saw an increase in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/magazine/antiwork-reddit.html">anti-work rhetoric</a> and the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/2022-in-review/the-year-in-quiet-quitting">onset of the “quiet quitting” trend</a> — a variation on the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-about-quiet-quitting-heres-why-and-how-you-should-talk-to-your-boss-instead-189499">work to rule” concept</a> where employees do no more than the bare minimum required by contract. Quitting was also described <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/style/quit-your-job.html">as being fun</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/business/quitting-contagious.html">and contagious</a>. </p>
<p>A <em>Wall Street Journal</em> headline from November 2023 <a href="https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/workers-morale-pay-benefits-remote-52c4ab10?mod=workplace_trendingnow_article_pos1">summarized the sentiment aptly</a>: “Why is Everyone So Unhappy at Work Right Now?” </p>
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<img alt="A man walks toward the camera holding a cardboard box with a plant peeking out the top. Behind him, a man in a suit sits at a desk with his hands folded in front of him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573939/original/file-20240207-30-7yteca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Quitting has been framed as a trend in recent economics think pieces in American news media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>We’re told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-show-sarah-jaffe.html?searchResultPosition=1">“work won’t love you back”</a> and that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/11/danger-really-loving-your-job/620690/">loving your job is a “capitalist trap</a>.” Long-suffering workers reached their breaking point, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/14/opinion/workers-quitting-wages.html">according to some news commentators</a>, in what has been called the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220126-the-rise-of-the-anti-work-movement">anti-work movement</a>. Some interpreted the tumult in the labour market as evidence that workers were simultaneously fed up and empowered to seek better working conditions.</p>
<p>But not all commentators have bought into this narrative. Reflecting on the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-great-resignation-hate-work/627761/">Great Resignation</a>, American journalist Derek Thompson found “workers are more satisfied than the internet would have you believe.”</p>
<p>Thompson <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/pdfdownload.cfm?masterProductID=27278">based his argument on studies</a> that found consistently <a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-majority-of-american-workers-like-their-jobs-even-as-a-record-number-quit-them-173564">high levels of job satisfaction</a> among American workers — a pattern I have discovered in my own research.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-majority-of-american-workers-like-their-jobs-even-as-a-record-number-quit-them-173564">Vast majority of American workers like their jobs – even as a record number quit them</a>
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<p>But I wondered about something else: could the adverse effects of anti-work rhetoric spread beyond one’s own job perception? If the portrayal of the Great Resignation — especially its purported personal causes — tainted work attitudes, then widespread discontent should be apparent. </p>
<h2>Americans’ perception of work</h2>
<p>In November 2023, with the help of the <a href="https://today.yougov.com/">research firm YouGov</a>, I conducted a national survey of 5,000 American workers to test my hunch. I call my study <a href="https://workandhealth.ca">the MESSI (Measuring Employment Sentiments and Social Inequality)</a>. The MESSI sample is designed to broadly reflect the socio-demographic, socio-economic, and geographic characteristics of the American working population.</p>
<p>I asked participants five work-related questions. To ground the MESSI in well-established benchmarks, I modelled these questions after the <a href="https://gss.norc.org/">General Social Survey</a>. </p>
<p>For each of the five questions, I identified “perception glitches” by comparing two data points: what respondents reported about their own job versus what respondents <em>believe</em> most American workers think or feel about their jobs. The distance between the two represents the perception glitch.</p>
<p><strong>1. Satisfaction: All in all, how satisfied are you with your job?</strong> The MESSI finds that 79 per cent of workers feel somewhat or very satisfied with their own job, but only 49 per cent think that most Americans feel somewhat or very satisfied. That’s a 30-point perception glitch.</p>
<p><strong>2. Stressed out: How often do you find your work stressful?</strong> Thirty-two per cent of workers describe their own work as highly stressful, but 69 per cent believe that most Americans are in highly stressful jobs. That’s a 37-point perception glitch.</p>
<p><strong>3. Underpaid: When you think about the pay you get for your work, do you feel you are underpaid, paid about right, or overpaid?</strong> Sixty-two per cent of workers feel underpaid, but 89 per cent think that most Americans feel underpaid. That’s a 27-point perception glitch. </p>
<p><strong>4. Management-employee relations: In general, how would you describe relations in your workplace between management and employees?</strong> Fifty-seven per cent describe management-employees relations in their workplace as quite or very good, but only 22 per cent believe that most Americans experience positive management-employee relations. That’s a 35-point perception glitch.</p>
<p><strong>5. Going above and beyond: How much effort do you put into your job beyond what is required?</strong> Fifty-two per cent say they put a lot of effort into their job beyond what is required, but only 13 per cent believe that most Americans go above and beyond. That’s a 39-point perception glitch.</p>
<p>Collectively, my MESSI findings both challenge the “unhappy worker” narrative and confirm that most people believe it. </p>
<h2>‘Everything is terrible but I’m fine’</h2>
<p>These perception glitches could reflect what Thompson calls the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/american-economy-negative-perception-inflation/661149/">everything is terrible but I’m fine</a>” mindset, or what American economist Paul Krugman calls the “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/opinion/american-economy-improvement-perception-data.html">yawning gulf</a>” between public perceptions of the economy and personal financial conditions. </p>
<p>They could also reflect a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/opinion/psychology-brain-biased-memory.html">cognitive bias</a> in which we pay attention to negative information about others, revealing our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-and-pessimism">tendency toward individual optimism but social pessimism</a>. </p>
<p>My research with Paul Glavin, a sociologist at McMaster University, has started to measure the consequences of the “unhappy worker” narrative. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.19053.56809">So far, we’ve discovered</a> that when Americans perceive widespread job dissatisfaction among the general public, they feel less committed to their own job and employer. Even if it’s just an illusion, there’s a misery spillover effect.</p>
<p>Moving the dials on these perception glitches might reduce the <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/planet-money/id290783428?i=1000637232183">collective “bad vibes</a>.” These days, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/opinion/economy-crime-presidential-election.html?searchResultPosition=16">we seem resistant to good news</a> — and that extends to work as well. But a more accurate read on what most people think and feel about work might boost optimism. </p>
<p>That doesn’t negate the fact that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/opinion/economy-biden-vibes.html?searchResultPosition=3">many people are struggling financially</a>. And yet, after years of negative rhetoric, a <a href="https://justinmberg.com/wp-content/uploads/Berg-et-al_2023_JAP.pdf">mindset shift</a> towards believing work isn’t a necessary evil couldn’t hurt.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Schieman receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Could the adverse effects of anti-work rhetoric spread beyond one’s own job perception? A sociologist’s recent research sheds light on the question.Scott Schieman, Professor of Sociology and Canada Research Chair, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169702024-01-25T13:18:02Z2024-01-25T13:18:02ZThinking about work as a calling can be meaningful, but there can be unexpected downsides as well<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568740/original/file-20240110-17-o199g3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C8057%2C5408&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sense of calling can provide workers a feeling of higher purpose in their jobs.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/emotional-woman-feels-happy-to-finish-working-on-royalty-free-image/1728919751?phrase=personally+rewarding+work&searchscope=image%2Cfilm&adppopup=true">megaflopp/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many Americans – especially young adults – want to do work that feels meaningful. Creating meaning for oneself may be especially important as fewer workplaces <a href="https://today.duke.edu/2023/03/managers-exploit-loyal-workers-over-less-committed-colleagues">provide good pay</a> and benefits to their employees. </p>
<p><a href="https://news.rice.edu/news/2023/religious-calling-job-can-motivate-employees-might-result-mistreatment-going-unaddressed">Those who are religious or spiritual</a> often want to connect their faith to their work through a sense of calling. But there can be unexpected downsides for those who do so. People who say they feel “called” report <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-014-2336-z">better work and life satisfaction</a>, but they may also be less likely to address workplace problems or unfair treatment when it arises. </p>
<h2>Faith in workplaces</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://profiles.rice.edu/faculty/elaine-howard-ecklund">scholars</a> <a href="https://www.wheaton.edu/academics/faculty/denise-daniels/">who study</a> <a href="https://rplp.rice.edu/people/brenton-kalinowski">religion in the workplace</a>, we have found that about 1 in 5 American workers agree with the statement, “I see my work as a spiritual calling.” Most of those who see their work in this way link it to religious sensibilities and practices. </p>
<p>Even though faith can be deeply connected to work, there are few comprehensive studies on this topic. In 2018 and again in 2021, we gathered responses from across the United States on how people see their faith in relation to their work. </p>
<p>Over 15,000 people representing a cross section of American adults filled out our surveys. These respondents included individuals from many different faith traditions and also those who did not follow a religious tradition. We also conducted in-depth interviews with over 250 of our survey-takers. </p>
<p>We found that 53% of Americans who feel called to their work are “very satisfied” with their current job compared with <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rel11060287">39% of those who do not feel called</a>. </p>
<h2>Religious calling in work</h2>
<p>The “concept of calling” has roots in Christian history, where people felt called to serve the church. More recently, calling has been extended to a possibility for any person in any job that serves the world.</p>
<p>There is no widely agreed-upon definition of what a modern-day spiritual calling might entail. Business scholars <a href="https://hankamer.baylor.edu/person/mitchell-j-neubert">Mitchell Neubert</a> and <a href="https://www.baylor.edu/content/services/document.php/175560.pdf">Katie Halbesleben</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-014-2336-z">define it as</a> “a summons from God to approach work with a sense of purpose and a pursuit of excellence in work practices.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman seated on a chair, with two other coworkers, laughs while having a conversation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568746/original/file-20240110-27-l3svwn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Viewing work as a calling has a positive effect on mental health and well-being.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/businesswoman-laughing-with-coworkers-while-working-royalty-free-image/1129490276?phrase=joy+at+work">Thomas Barwick/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Findings that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/socrel/advance-article/doi/10.1093/socrel/srad010/7160374">relate calling to positive workplace outcomes</a> are consistent with previous research that shows viewing work as a calling has a positive effect on worker satisfaction, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027517706984">mental health</a> and well-being, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022167899391010">feeling one’s talents are being well used</a>. As one respondent whom we interviewed told us, “I definitely feel more fulfilled in my work because of my faith, and vice versa. I feel like I’m being a better Christian by doing the work that I do …”</p>
<p>Yet, less is known about the specifics of how people see their work as a calling. Interviews we conducted found that a sense of calling provides workers with higher purpose in their work, especially when facing work that is either extremely challenging or mundane. </p>
<p>For example, teachers talked about dealing with the bureaucracy of state educational systems, and medical service workers discussed the daily grind of mopping floors and handling bodily waste. However, despite the challenges of their work, these people also acknowledged that they were able to get through the day-to-day aspects of their jobs because they felt spiritually called to their work.</p>
<h2>Being called to work has downsides</h2>
<p>There is reason to be cautious, however, in touting the advantages of viewing work as a calling without also considering the detrimental effects that can emerge. </p>
<p>For example, people who feel that God intended them to be in their current workplace or industry might be more disposed to stay in their current role regardless of <a href="https://news.rice.edu/news/2023/religious-calling-job-can-motivate-employees-might-result-mistreatment-going-unaddressed">unfair treatment</a> or working conditions that take advantage of them, such as being underpaid or overworked. Specifically, in previous work we found that people who do feel called to their work report higher job satisfaction – even when they are experiencing discrimination – than people who do not feel called to their work. </p>
<p>A sense of calling may make people less likely to initiate changes to problematic workplace situations. Indeed, as we found in our research, those who view their work as a calling but also perceive discrimination in the workplace report being less likely to speak up in these situations compared with those who do not attach the same meaning to their work. </p>
<p>This can be especially detrimental for those of racial and religious minority groups who are more likely to experience discrimination at work in the first place. As one woman who works in government told us, “It is difficult being an African American woman in my field, so my faith allows me to step back sometimes and remove myself from the situation.” </p>
<p>This also shows how religion may help individuals cope with discrimination at work, but sometimes in a way that could detract from actively seeking change.</p>
<h2>The double-edged sword</h2>
<p>Experiencing work as a calling can be a double-edged sword. Because those who feel called to their work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jssr.12842">have a high level of commitment to their jobs</a>, they tend to be more likely to tolerate, endure or ignore work situations that are unreasonable, inequitable or even discriminatory. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young Black teacher, looking tired, at his desk in a classroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568747/original/file-20240110-27-2v3nml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Surveys have found that workers who believe in calling are more likely to tolerate exploitative situations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/tired-teacher-royalty-free-image/1134698169?phrase=overworked+teacher&adppopup=true">shironosov/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>According to organizational ethics scholars <a href="https://olin.wustl.edu/faculty/j-bunderson">Stuart Bunderson</a> and <a href="https://sorensencenter.byu.edu/directory/jeffery-thompson">Jeffery Thompson</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27749305">workers who feel called to their jobs are</a> “more likely to see their work as a moral duty, and to sacrifice pay, personal time and comfort for their work.” Thus, it can become easier for organizations to exploit these employees, whether they do so intentionally or unintentionally. </p>
<p>Having and being led by a sense of calling is also linked to financial stability. According to our data, 68% of people who do not feel called to their work agree that “the primary reason” they do the work is to make money. In comparison, 47% of those who experience a sense of calling view making money as their primary reason for working.</p>
<p>The discrepancy could also speak to gender, race and class privileges. In her research on the “passion principle” – the idea that Americans feel the need to follow their passion and choose jobs they find fascinating, intriguing or fulfilling – sociologist <a href="https://lsa.umich.edu/soc/people/faculty/erin-cech.html">Erin Cech</a> notes how the concept of pursuing paid work that one loves or feels called to can inadvertently foster <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303232/the-trouble-with-passion">structural and cultural inequalities</a>. According to Cech, race and class can influence the freedom to choose their work. Not surprisingly, Cech found that white, upper-class men who did not need to worry about money as much enjoyed the most liberty to do so.</p>
<p>Our research also shows that when workers see their job as a spiritual calling, it can blind them to the difficulties others experience at work. They may be less able to empathize with those who feel stuck in their job because of money concerns, are unhappy or unfulfilled in their work, or are struggling to find a job. </p>
<p>Our surveys reveal that 60% of those who view their work as a calling agree that “anyone can find a good job if they try hard enough,” whereas only 49% of those who <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rel11060287">do not view their work as a calling concur</a>.</p>
<p>Based on these findings, we suggest that leaders in organizations can help cultivate a sense of calling in workers by helping them identify their particular gifts and interests and facilitate their development along these pathways. At the same time, they can and should encourage feedback that can lead to a healthier workplace for everyone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elaine Howard Ecklund receives funding from the Lilly Endowment Inc. a foundation that funds research on faith at work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denise Daniels receives funding from the Lilly Endowment Inc., a foundation that funds research on faith at work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brenton Kalinowski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many workers who see their work as a spiritual calling wind up tolerating unfair treatment and poor work conditions.Elaine Howard Ecklund, Professor of Sociology and Director of The Boniuk Institute for the Study and Advancement of Religious Tolerance, Rice UniversityBrenton Kalinowski, PhD Candidate, Rice UniversityDenise Daniels, Hudson T. Harrison Endowed Chair of Entrepreneurship, Wheaton College (Illinois)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969922024-01-10T16:35:56Z2024-01-10T16:35:56ZMothers are more likely to work worse jobs – while fathers thrive in careers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568275/original/file-20240108-19-28ulqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C4455%2C3736&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/attractive-stressed-woman-wearing-uniform-apron-2192701493">Lysenko Andrii/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Having a child is bad for a woman’s earnings. This is not only in the immediate period after the birth, but <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30323">across her lifetime</a> – as shown in research by recent economics Nobel prize-winner <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimelsesser/2023/10/09/claudia-goldin-wins-nobel-prize-in-economics-for-studying-women-at-work/">Claudia Goldin</a>. </p>
<p>On the other hand, men who become fathers are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jasp.12728?casa_token=y_5aRC7DsF8AAAAA:8BRx_eVDy9Zf0t6RUPMvCGkKA7G0q7yxlkLrGyQGdgDuHD9FvOPtaGF-6SAbHehhoBq7SdXAO9YP84w">perceived as</a> self-reliant and decisive. And they are often rewarded at work <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/58/1/247/167586/Motherhood-Penalties-and-Fatherhood-Premiums">with opportunities and pay</a>. </p>
<p>Campaigns by groups like <a href="https://pregnantthenscrewed.com/">Pregnant Then Screwed</a> make explicit that, in the UK, this “motherhood penalty” extends to pregnancy discrimination, the extortionate costs of childcare and ineffective flexible working policies. Yet we still know little about how it extends to job quality. </p>
<p>Together with colleagues, I have <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-023-03214-6">carried out research</a> to explore this “motherhood penalty” further. Using data from 15,877 employees from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey, we investigated the kinds of jobs women with children do, and how this compares with fathers and women without children. </p>
<h2>Poor-quality jobs</h2>
<p>We looked in particular at job quality, covering factors like training opportunities, promotion prospects, control over day to day tasks, benefits, working hours and work-life balance. Poor-quality jobs, such as those characterised by high demands, low control and limited flexibility, are known to be <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/47/1/47/4079898?login=false">damaging for wellbeing</a>. They are particularly concerning when it comes to working parents, due to the <a href="https://www.charterworks.com/work-matters-maureen-perry-jenkins/">likely spillover effects on children</a>. </p>
<p>We found a clearcut motherhood penalty. Mothers are under-represented in high-quality jobs – those with attributes including good work-life balance, control over working hours and control over job tasks.</p>
<p>Mothers of school-age children, in particular, are more likely to work in poor-quality jobs. They are less likely to have high-quality jobs, compared both to their male counterparts and to women without children. </p>
<p>What’s more, our models controlled for the sector and occupation people worked in. This suggests that women with children suffer a penalty even when compared to other people in similar jobs.</p>
<p>Our findings also show that the trade-offs made by mothers and fathers in their employment situations – on things like pay, career opportunities and flexibility – are rather different. </p>
<p>We found that mothers were also much more likely to have jobs that scored poorly on access to training and prospects, yet had high levels of control over the nature and timing of their work. These jobs were often part-time. This is especially the case among mothers of children attending primary school. Almost a third hold jobs like this.</p>
<h2>Trading promotion for flexibility?</h2>
<p>It might be possible to look at these results and think that mothers have “chosen” to sacrifice rewards and prospects in favour of working around their children’s needs – while dads choose to prioritise breadwinning even if it means less time with their kids. Indeed, the jobs most associated with fatherhood are characterised by long working hours combined with good opportunities for progression. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman walking home from school with child" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568277/original/file-20240108-21-k1a6fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mothers may be trading career advancement for flexibility.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mother-daughter-cross-road-after-school-2136660447">Kirkam/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But these trade-offs are not inevitable. They are also <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/giwl/assets/working-parents-flexibility-and-job-quality-what-are-the-trade-offs.pdf">not desired by all parents</a>.</p>
<p>As we found in <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/giwl/assets/working-parents-flexibility-and-job-quality-what-are-the-trade-offs.pdf">earlier research</a>, mothers can feel their contracted part-time hours block them from desired career progression. Part-time hours may not even help them find balance if they face a workload better suited to full-time hours, <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/the-flexibility-paradox">potentially leading to overwork</a> for little gain.</p>
<p>What’s more, our research shows that mothers may not be trading career progression for flexibility. The poor-quality jobs primarily filled by mothers offer very little in the way of either flexibility or career progression. This means many mothers actually have worse access to flexibility than women without children.</p>
<p>The motherhood penalty in job quality, in all its guises, combined with pressures such as the high cost of childcare and partners’ long hours, may well contribute to stress and burnout among working mothers. Employers have an important role to play in tackling this by promoting gender equality in the holistic experience of work, in addition to addressing pay equality.</p>
<p>But while <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/hollycorbett/2022/09/30/how-to-support-mothers-in-the-workplace-and-why-its-good-for-business/?sh=6f0b2dae2093">supporting the wellbeing</a> of working parents is important, more concrete actions like openly making key promotions available to part-timers and genuine commitments to effective flexible working are also needed. </p>
<p>Strategies like these would not only signify employers’ commitment to freeing parents from outdated roles, but also help them retain a vast talent pool. Both employers and governments need to wake up to the stark disadvantages faced by working mothers in accessing meaningful and fair employment, and start taking the motherhood penalty seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rose Cook receives funding from The Nuffield Foundation, but the views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily the Foundation. Website: <a href="http://www.nuffieldfoundation.org">www.nuffieldfoundation.org</a> Twitter: @NuffieldFound</span></em></p>Mothers are more likely to work poor quality jobs, with limited control over their work and flexibility.Rose Cook, Senior Research Fellow, Global Institute for Women's Leadership, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126002023-12-19T13:14:40Z2023-12-19T13:14:40ZDigital inaccessibility: Blind and low-vision people have powerful technology but still face barriers to the digital world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562793/original/file-20231130-17-d6h2rd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6016%2C4016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Screen reader software converts text to audio for people who are blind.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/accessmattersnz/45982808441"> Access Matters/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine that you have low vision and you’re completing an online job application using screen reader software. </p>
<p>You get through half the form and then come to a question with drop-down options the screen reader cannot access because the online form doesn’t conform to accessibility standards. You’re stuck. You can’t submit the application, and your time has been wasted. </p>
<p>Assistive technologies like screen readers go a long way toward closing the gap between people who are blind or have low vision and their sighted peers. But the technologies often hit roadblocks because the information they are designed to work with – documents, websites and software programs – don’t work with them, leaving the <a href="https://accessibility.day/">information inaccessible</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://data.census.gov/table?q=vision+difficulty&y=2022">8 million people with blindness or low vision in the U.S.</a> More than 4.23 million of them are working age, but <a href="https://data.census.gov/table?q=B18120:%20EMPLOYMENT%20STATUS%20BY%20DISABILITY%20STATUS%20AND%20TYPE&g=010XX00US&y=2022">only about half of that working-age population are employed</a>. Employment rates for people with blindness or low vision have historically been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0145482X19887620">much lower than for the general population</a>.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://nationalskillscoalition.org/resource/publications/closing-the-digital-skill-divide/">overwhelming majority</a> of jobs across all industries require digital skills. Assistive technologies such as screen readers, screen magnifiers and braille notetakers provide people who are blind or have low vision a chance to succeed in school and the workplace.</p>
<p>Assistive technology has improved, and new technology for people with blindness or low vision is being developed all the time. The technology developed today by big tech companies for the general population often <a href="https://www.eastersealstech.com/2021/10/27/big-tech-brands-make-accessibility-mainstream-part-1/">incorporates built-in accessibility features</a> like VoiceOver in the iPhone and Narrator in Windows, both text-to-speech functions. These assistive technology advances have expanded job opportunities, and the percentage of people who are blind or have low vision in the labor force has <a href="https://www.disabilitystatistics.org/acs/2">increased over the past decade</a>.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PmhpuFM6nuw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Screen reader software allows people who are blind to read and write email messages as well as browse the web and work with documents.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Out of sight, out of mind for the sighted</h2>
<p>But despite the abundance of assistive technology, people who don’t rely on it are typically unaware of how it’s being used at work and the challenges users experience with it. My colleagues and I are conducting <a href="https://www.blind.msstate.edu/research/current/project-1-access-technology-workplace">a five-year longitudinal study</a> to increase knowledge in this area that, we hope, can help prepare unemployed people who are blind or have low vision to enter the workforce. The study is slated to continue through 2025, with the last survey starting in late 2024.</p>
<p>While most of the people we surveyed reported being satisfied with the assistive technology they use at work, almost all also reported <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10400435.2023.2213762">challenges with it</a>. The most significant <a href="https://www.afb.org/aw/24/6/18368">challenges related to assistive technology</a> centered on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10400435.2023.2213762">inaccessible digital environment</a>: documents, software, websites, graphics and photos.</p>
<p>Digital content is sometimes technically accessible but unusable by people who use assistive technology. For instance, online job application systems <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0145482X231216757">often generate accessibility and usability challenges</a>. Inaccessible and unusable company software means those who are blind or have low vision are often left out of jobs they could easily perform simply because the employers’ software doesn’t work with screen readers. </p>
<p>People who are blind or have low vision have been harder to place in jobs than people with other types of disabilities due to inaccessible company software, Ross Barchacky, vice president of business development and strategic partnerships at <a href="https://www.inclusively.com/">Inclusively</a>, told me. The organization supports companies who want to hire people with disabilities, including matching them with qualified job seekers with disabilities.</p>
<h2>Digital accessibility</h2>
<p>Although the Americans with Disabilities Act does not mention the digital environment explicitly, the Justice Department has taken the position that Title III of the ADA, which covers public accommodation for people with disabilities, <a href="https://www.ada.gov/resources/web-guidance/">applies to websites and mobile apps</a>. Thousands of digital accessibility lawsuits <a href="https://info.usablenet.com/thank-you-2022-end-of-year-report-on-digital-accessibility-lawsuits?submissionGuid=25eec95e-7f14-4db8-a15e-3c0018c63dfc">are filed under the ADA each year</a>, and the number has increased substantially in the past five years. </p>
<p>Digital standard-setters have begun paying attention. The World Wide Web Consortium developed standards for accessible web content: the <a href="https://www.w3.org/WAI/standards-guidelines/wcag/#:%7E:text=The%20WCAG%20standards%20have%2012,determine%20%E2%80%9Cconformance%E2%80%9D%20to%20WCAG.">Web Content Accessibility Guidelines</a>, just revised in a <a href="https://www.w3.org/TR/WCAG22/">2.2 version</a>. The guidelines provide free guidance to help developers make their digital content accessible. Two related standards are the U.S. government’s <a href="https://appt.org/en/guidelines/section-508">Section 508</a> and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute’s <a href="https://appt.org/en/guidelines/en-301-549">EN 301 549</a>. <a href="https://accessibility.day/">Global Accessibility Awareness Day</a> was established in 2012 to encourage people to learn and think about digital inclusion for people with disabilities.</p>
<p><iframe id="Ar207" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ar207/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Despite laws requiring and guidelines supporting an accessible digital environment, much if not most digital content is still not fully accessible. In its latest annual review of the accessibility of the top 1 million websites, the nonprofit <a href="https://webaim.org/projects/million/">WebAIM found an average of 50 accessibility errors per page</a>. Worse, almost all home pages – 96.3% – had <a href="https://www.w3.org/TR/WCAG20-TECHS/failures">Web Content Accessibility Guidelines 2 failures</a>. </p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>Accessibility can be built in from the beginning more easily than retrofitting after the fact. </p>
<p>For accessibility to be built in from the ground up, accessibility would have to be <a href="https://teachaccess.org/">part of the curriculum for digital developers</a>, but it typically is not.</p>
<p>Companies could require developers to create accessible software and refuse to buy software that isn’t accessible. Individuals can help by producing their own accessible digital documents – inaccessible digital documents were the <a href="https://www.afb.org/aw/24/6/18368">most commonly experienced challenge at work</a>. Microsoft has been working to make producing accessible digital documents easier with its accessibility checker and now with its <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/blog/2023/03/08/create-inclusive-content-with-the-new-accessibility-assistant-in-microsoft-365/">new accessibility assistant</a>.</p>
<p>An accessible digital environment is possible, and it would result in greater employment opportunities for people who are blind or have low vision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michele McDonnall receives funding from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research. Grant number 90RTEM0007 provided funding for the research discussed in this story. </span></em></p>Assistive technology like screen readers for the blind help people with disabilities use computers and smartphones, but they can be tripped up if webpages or documents are improperly formatted.Michele McDonnall, Research Professor of Rehabilitation Education and Research, Mississippi State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184882023-11-24T17:18:26Z2023-11-24T17:18:26ZThere are many reasons disabled people can’t just work from home – threatening to cut their benefits won’t fix the wider problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561534/original/file-20231124-25-ywnnnb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=152%2C206%2C5838%2C3781&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-asian-businesswoman-sitting-working-hard-2256422063">PBXStudio/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As part of the UK government’s latest economic plan, disabled people may <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-chance-to-work-guarantee-will-remove-barriers-to-work-for-millions">have to look</a> for jobs they can do from home or face cuts to their benefits. Previously, disabled people with limited ability to work may have received benefits without being required to look for work. Now, Laura Trott, chief secretary to the Treasury, has said that disabled people not in work must “do their duty” and work from home.</p>
<p>While more disabled people have found work over the past decade (mirroring more general increases in employment), there remains a significant employment gap. In <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7540/CBP-7540.pdf">January to March 2023</a>, 53.7% of disabled people were in employment compared with 82.7% of non-disabled people. </p>
<p>Getting more disabled people into work just isn’t that simple. A stick-only approach is likely to make things worse for tens of thousands of people, whose incomes, physical and mental health are already affected more by the <a href="https://www.scope.org.uk/campaigns/research-policy/cost-of-living-report/#:%7E:text=We%20are%20in%20the%20middle,decisions%20about%20what%20to%20prioritise.">cost of living crisis</a>.</p>
<p>Work is not a tap that can simply be turned on or off. There are many factors already making it difficult for disabled people to find good jobs. Inflexible working practices, discrimination and a lack of <a href="https://www.acas.org.uk/reasonable-adjustments">reasonable adjustments</a>, such as providing specialised equipment, are barriers that will not be fixed by requiring people to work from home.</p>
<h2>There aren’t enough remote jobs</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/work-foundation/TheChangingWorkplace.pdf">Our recent study</a> found that disabled people greatly valued having access to hybrid and remote working. And 80% regarded having access to remote working as essential or very important factors when looking for a new job. Disabled women, carers and people with multiple impairments in particular considered remote working as essential. As one of our participants said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have a quiet and comfortable environment at home. I can concentrate much better and I can rest when I need to. This has had a major positive impact on my health and confidence in my work. I’m much more productive and have a much more positive attitude about myself and work in general.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But there simply aren’t enough remote jobs to go around. A glance at the government’s <a href="https://findajob.dwp.gov.uk/">“find a job” website</a> on the day of the autumn statement showed that only 1,413 out of over 140,000 jobs fit the description of working from home. Most jobs required applicants to work some days on-site.</p>
<p>It is unlikely then that the thousands of disabled people facing sanctions will successfully find remote employment, not least because disabled people are competing with all other workers for these jobs too.</p>
<p>Even before this announcement, the lack of enough fully remote jobs meant disabled people often could not obtain secure jobs with enough flexibility in them, therefore opting into poor quality, insecure jobs, such as zero-hour contract roles. This is why <a href="https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/work-foundation/publications/the-disability-gap-insecure-work-in-the-uk">disabled workers</a> in the UK are 1.5 times more likely to be in severely insecure work than non-disabled workers.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-uk-governments-back-to-work-plan-covers-and-why-it-is-unlikely-to-boost-peoples-job-prospects-218076">What the UK government's back to work plan covers – and why it is unlikely to boost people's job prospects</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Home working is not always viable</h2>
<p>Additionally, just because a job is remote does not mean it is accessible or available to disabled workers. </p>
<p>Lack of access to inclusive education means that disabled young people tend to have <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/disability/articles/outcomesfordisabledpeopleintheuk/2021/pdf#:%7E:text=In%20addition%2C%20disabled%20people%20were,%2Ddisabled%20people%20(17.4%25)%5D">fewer qualifications</a> than non-disabled peers. Those with a degree are less likely than non-disabled graduates to move into permanent work <a href="https://www.agcas.org.uk/write/MediaUploads/Resources/Disability%20TG/AGCAS_What_Happens_Next_2021_-_February_2021.pdf">appropriate to their qualifications</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, disabled people are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/the-employment-of-disabled-people-2022/employment-of-disabled-people-2022#employment-1">over-represented</a> in lower-skilled and lower-paid jobs that cannot be done remotely. These barriers leave many in a situation in which they are under-qualified for a number of remote working positions, but also unable to work on-site due to the nature of their conditions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man at a home working desk rests his head on the desk in front of his computer" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561531/original/file-20231124-22-eu23lh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Just because a job is remote does not mean it is accessible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burnout-work-tired-fatigued-office-worker-1773915317">Girts Ragelis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For some people, the home environment is not suitable for remote working. Younger people in lower-paid roles may live in shared accommodation without dedicated office space, a particular problem for workers who need specialist equipment.</p>
<p>Working from home <a href="https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/work-foundation/TheChangingWorkplace.pdf">can be isolating</a>, and some disabled people have reported they are concerned that being fully remote means they may lose out on development opportunities, pay and progression due to being less visible than on-site colleagues. This may exacerbate the existing lack of representation for disabled workers at the managerial level, and gives employers less incentive to make accessibility adjustments for on-site disabled workers.</p>
<p>Mandating unemployed disabled people into remote roles could lead to a greater uptake of poor quality, insecure and temporary jobs, with detrimental consequences for their health.</p>
<h2>What would a better approach look like?</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://wp.lancs.ac.uk/inclusive-working/">ongoing study funded by the Nuffield Foundation</a>, we, along with colleagues Alison Collins, Jacqueline Winstanley and Alice Martin, are researching how employers can design working practices to be inclusive. </p>
<p>Forcing disabled workers into any kind of job will be counterproductive if it undermines health, wellbeing and job satisfaction. Remote and on-site workers need to have equal access to development and training opportunities so that remote workers’ careers don’t stall. </p>
<p>Organisations need to invest in the right technology so that meetings involving both in-person and remote employees are easier to navigate. And disabled people who need adapted or specialist equipment to do their job must have that equipment in whichever location they work in.</p>
<p>Threatening people with sanctions is not a sensible approach that addresses any of these issues, and is certainly not as simple as the government suggests. And telling vulnerable people to “do their duty” without significant investment in making work actually accessible is insidious language that undermines the possibility of an inclusive society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Holland receives funding from the Nuffield Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calum Carson receives funding from the Nuffield Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Florisson receives funding from the Nuffield Foundation. </span></em></p>There aren’t enough remote jobs to go around.Paula Holland, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, Lancaster UniversityCalum Carson, Senior Research Associate, Lancaster UniversityRebecca Florisson, Principal Analyst (Work Foundation), Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157702023-10-31T20:01:45Z2023-10-31T20:01:45ZHow to ensure Alberta’s oil and gas workers have jobs during the energy transition<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-to-ensure-albertas-oil-and-gas-workers-have-jobs-during-the-energy-transition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Retraining Alberta’s oil and gas workers for the solar industry costs far less than you think. The results of our new study clearly show that a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">rapid transition to sustainable energy production is feasible</a>, as costs of retraining oil and gas workers are far from prohibitive.</p>
<h2>Probable futures</h2>
<p>The oil and gas industry has played a crucial part in <a href="http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?art=807&param=129">Alberta’s political structure</a> for decades. Alberta contains about 97 per cent of all oil stores in Canada, <a href="https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/newstop-ten-countries-with-worlds-largest-oil-reserves-5793487/">which ranks third</a> globally for oil and gas exports.</p>
<p>Over 20 per cent of the GDP and 5.9 per cent of all employment in Alberta is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2021007/article/00003-eng.htm">tied to the oil and gas industry</a>, which employs over <a href="https://www.jobbank.gc.ca/home">35,000 people</a>. </p>
<p>However, many factors — including increasing electrification, reduction in renewable energy costs and climate policy — are aligning to annihilate Alberta’s traditional fossil-fuel focused energy industry. This raises a real concern for <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/10/15/news/canadian-fossil-fuel-jobs-about-be-cut-half-its-time-talk-about-just-transition">oil and gas workers’ jobs in the near future</a>. </p>
<h2>A confluence of events</h2>
<p>Purchases of electric vehicles (EVs) are already up 35 per cent this year after a record year, and <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/demand-for-electric-cars-is-booming-with-sales-expected-to-leap-35-this-year-after-a-record-breaking-2022">predicted to increase</a>. This indicates that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/peak-oil-demand-is-coming-fast-for-transportation#xj4y7vzkg">oil-based transportation is quickly coming to an end</a>.</p>
<p>In addition to lower costs of ownership, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2487514">EVs can also offer electric grid support</a> by acting like mobile batteries that can help overcome the renewable energy intermittency challenge by storing wind and solar electricity for when they are needed. In addition, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2020.102050">conventional electric storage</a> <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abb216/meta">reduces electricity costs</a> while servicing the grid with intermittent generators. </p>
<p>These technologies not only help expand opportunities for renewable energy technologies, but they also electrify transportation, which directly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105086">undermines the market for the oil industry</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the market for the gas industry is challenged by the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101764">use of electric-powered heat pumps</a>. In North America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040834">solar-powered heat pumps have already become economically viable</a>. And for the first time in history <a href="https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Featured-Stories/US-Heat-Pump-Sales">heat pump sales outperformed conventional natural gas furnaces in the United States</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/solar-energy-cheapest-in-history-iea-renewables-climate-change/">solar electricity is now the cheapest electricity to produce</a> — and although gas-fired electricity is better for the environment and more economic than coal, <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/gas-cant-compete-with-wind-solar-and-storage-even-in-worlds-biggest-market/">gas simply cannot compete</a> with modern solar technologies. </p>
<h2>Competition in Alberta</h2>
<p>Alberta allows <a href="https://www.aeso.ca/aeso/understanding-electricity-in-alberta/continuing-education/guide-to-understanding-albertas-electricity-market/">electricity generators to sell electricity to the grid in a free market set-up</a>. When the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/pembina-institute-report-renewable-projects-affected-by-pause-moratorium-1.6946440">pause</a>” on renewable development in Alberta is lifted, it will create a massive solar boom. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In August 2023, the Alberta government paused the approval of new renewable energy projects in response to concerns about developing wind and solar projects on agricultural land.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Currently, there is a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9918212/alberta-renewable-energy-development-pause-pembina/">backlog of over $30 billion of hugely profitable solar projects</a> in Alberta, poising the province for a historic surge in super-cheap solar power. Simultaneously, the costs for carbon emissions are becoming even more clear <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.058">in terms of money</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/en16166074">human deaths</a>. This is only going to make oil and gas more expensive, whether from likely increased costs in carbon-regulated emissions or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.025">trillions in carbon emissions liabilities</a>. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/859123/most-polluting-oil-types-worldwide/">oil sands are the most polluting type of oil produced in the world today</a> — finding ways to feasibly phase them out is a key climate priority. If Canada makes good on its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html">net zero by 2050 promise</a> — essentially cutting all fossil fuel use — it is pretty clear that Alberta’s oil and gas workers will no longer have jobs. </p>
<h2>Retraining for solar</h2>
<p>An approach to keeping livelihoods is to retrain oil and gas workers for the solar industry, where there are lots of desperately needed jobs.</p>
<p>In the U.S., similar efforts are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.016">underway to retrain the 50,000 workers in the coal industry</a> to join the more than 250,000 solar workers.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I completed a study on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">exactly what that would cost</a>. Because many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work, many oil and gas workers would be able to transfer fields with no additional training required. </p>
<p>We used the <a href="https://irecusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/National-Solar-Jobs-Census-2020-FINAL.pdf">U.S. Solar Census</a> data to examine distributions of workers that would keep the same type of work in the oil and gas industry of Alberta. </p>
<p>We put ourselves — figuratively — into the workboots of the oil workers to future-proof their careers. When our oil worker skills did not align directly with a position type in the solar field, workers were assigned one of a few different types of positions that would require the least retraining possible.</p>
<p>Multiple different retraining options were outlined — universities, colleges and online courses currently available in Alberta — to provide cost estimates for each different type of retraining: trades certification, two-year college degree, four-year university degree, graduate degree.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two workers on a roof installing panels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556878/original/file-20231031-17-9cnpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many jobs in the solar industry require similar skill sets and training as general construction work.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Retraining costs</h2>
<p>We found the total costs for retraining all oil sands workers in Alberta for the solar industry ranges between $91.5 and $276.2 million.
In context, this is a small amount of money for the energy industry — only <a href="https://ccli.ubc.ca/resource/fossil-fuel-subsidies-in-canada-governance-implications-in-the-net-zero-transition/">two to six per cent of federal, provincial and territorial oil and gas subsidies for a single year</a> would need to be reallocated to provide oil and gas workers with a new career of approximately equivalent pay.</p>
<p>Currently, Canada spends more than <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/school-of-public-policy-homeless-services-study-1.4970251">$30 billion annually to fund social services for the homeless population</a>. It makes more sense to retrain workers whose jobs are about to evaporate. </p>
<p>The costs to retrain oil and gas workers could be funded in many ways. For example, a Canadian CEO in the oil and gas sector could agree to reduce his annual salary to $500,000 and donate the rest for five years. That would be enough to retrain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00067-3">all of Alberta’s oil and gas workers</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, with <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/iea-report-world-energy-outlook-2023-1.7005194">fossil fuels peaking soon</a>, companies could also prioritize retraining for their workers as they transition <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bakx-oilsands-renewables-enbridge-1.5980380">to carbon-free energy themselves</a>.</p>
<p>Provincial and federal governments could also provide financial incentives or compensation for the costs of retraining. And finally, workers who notice the writing on the wall could start retraining at their own expense. </p>
<p>In the end, while there are legitimate reasons to fear for long-term employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector, the resources needed to retrain the workers for the solar industry can be easily made available for this energy transition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua M. Pearce has received research funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, Mitacs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), U.S. Department of Defense, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). He is a founding member of Agrivoltaics Canada.</span></em></p>If Alberta prepares to transition from oil and gas to solar energy, the workforce will need retraining. New research shows that this will cost less than expected.Joshua M. Pearce, John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation and Professor, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2148122023-10-31T12:33:47Z2023-10-31T12:33:47ZWorkplace discrimination saps everyone’s motivation − even if it works in your favor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554087/original/file-20231016-17-idklp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C4851%2C3554&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If your boss is biased, this is a logical response.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/businessman-sleeping-on-computer-keyboard-royalty-free-image/85406503">Robert Daly/OJO Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When people work for discriminatory managers, they put in less effort. That’s true both when managers are biased against them and when they’re biased in their favor, according to <a href="https://rdcu.be/dmIdQ">a new paper</a> that Nicholas Heiserman of Oklahoma State University <a href="https://sc.edu/study/colleges_schools/artsandsciences/sociology/our_people/faculty_staff_directory/simpson_brent.php">and I</a> have published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. </p>
<p>To demonstrate this, we placed nearly 1,200 research participants in several experiments designed to mimic work settings, where they and other “workers” made decisions about how much effort to dedicate to a task. </p>
<p>In some experiments, we had participants complete number searches – by counting how many times “3” appeared in a large table of numbers, for example. The more searches a participant completed, the higher their effort was rated. Participants, working in pairs or in small groups, were told that their manager would award a bonus to one person based on how many number searches the workers completed. </p>
<p>To create a discriminatory situation, participants were told that there were two types of employees: blue and red. Participants were always assigned to be blue. One-third of the participants were told that the manager had a bias against blue employees, while another third were told that the manager was biased in their favor. The rest didn’t receive any information one way or the other.</p>
<p>We found that those workers who knew their managers discriminated – whether it was for them or against them – completed fewer number searches than participants in the control group. </p>
<p>By measuring workers’ expectations that they would receive a bonus, our experiments also help show that discrimination reduces work productivity by separating effort from rewards. </p>
<p>This makes intuitive sense: If you know your boss is biased against people like you, you’ll have less incentive to work hard, since you know you’re unlikely to get promoted regardless. Similarly, if your boss is biased in favor of people like you, you’ll probably get promoted anyway. So, again, why work hard?</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>It’s well established that workplace discrimination leads to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/511799">reduced earnings</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01400">advancement opportunities</a> for members of disadvantaged groups. </p>
<p>But our results suggest that it can lower productivity of all workers, even those advantaged by it – which means discrimination may hurt firms’ bottom lines more than has been assumed. </p>
<p>Another of our key findings helps explain why the effects of discrimination on work effort can worsen over time. Specifically, we found that even though working for a discriminatory boss made everyone put in less effort, the disadvantaged showed the largest decline. </p>
<p>We suspect this could lead to a vicious cycle, where targets of discrimination respond by putting in less effort than advantaged workers. In turn, their managers may come to see them as lazier, less competent or less deserving of promotions – which can strengthen their original biases.</p>
<p>To test this, we ran an additional study with participants who had managerial experience. We showed them the work effort of two groups of participants from our experiments: one group that had been discriminated against, and one that benefited from discrimination against others. The latter group had higher productivity. </p>
<p>We labeled these groups generically as “red types” and “blue types,” and while the managers knew that one group had put in more effort, they didn’t know discrimination was the reason why. </p>
<p>We found that managers readily stereotyped both groups, perceiving members of the advantaged group as warmer and much more competent. Further, they said they would strongly prefer to hire, work with, promote and give bonuses to members of the advantaged category. </p>
<p>These findings show how discrimination can lead to behavior by employees that strengthens the negative stereotypes underlying the original act of discrimination, or even spread discriminatory stereotypes to new managers. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Studying discrimination based on invented categories in simulated work environments can help us understand the basics of how it works, but it ignores differences in how bias operates when it comes to, for instance, race versus gender, or sexuality versus parental status. An important goal for future research is to better understand how the processes we observe play out for these real-world bases of discrimination. </p>
<p>For instance, following a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx006">related study</a>, future research might measure racial biases of managers in organizations and the productivity of employees who work for them. Based on our research, we would expect employees whose managers are racially biased to be less productive than employees whose managers aren’t.</p>
<p>But we may expect different effects if, rather than racial discrimination, we studied the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12031">well-established</a> pattern of discrimination against mothers in the workplace. That’s because, as we have shown in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102642">our prior work</a>, some mothers don’t interpret clearly biased treatment of them in the workplace as discriminatory. So what happens when people work for biased managers but don’t recognize it? That’s an important question to address in future work. </p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brent Simpson receives funding from the National Science Foundation and Army Research Office. </span></em></p>Having a biased manager lowers productivity across the board – even for workers who aren’t targeted.Brent Simpson, Professor of Sociology, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2160722023-10-30T01:03:03Z2023-10-30T01:03:03ZNZ’s workplace rules will change again with each new government – unless we do this<p>Whether you are a worker or an employer, the office or factory floor is likely to move under your feet over the next three years. </p>
<p>Every change of government sees a policy turnaround in New Zealand’s workplace relations. This see-saw pattern looks set to continue with the election of a National-led coalition in 2023.</p>
<p>Commentators are <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/500296/election-2023-axing-fair-pay-agreements-full-return-of-90-day-trials-on-business-wishlist">already speculating</a> about the axing of fair pay agreements and the return of 90-day trials. Lawyers, businesses and unions will soon be offering law-change updates. Workers and employers will begin amending their day-to-day processes. </p>
<p>But the bigger question is what drives these constant changes – and ultimately whether they benefit the country’s productivity in the long term.</p>
<h2>Coalition uncertainties</h2>
<p>Ultimately, political ideology shapes employment law and workplace relations. Governments of the left and right both assert a desire to “<a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2000/0024/latest/DLM58323.html">build productive employment relationships</a>” that benefit workers, employers and the economy. But each has a different perspective on the best way to achieve this. </p>
<p>For the left, the government’s role is to address an unequal balance of power between workers and employers. This includes establishing legislated minimum standards to protect workers’ interests, as well as supporting workers’ ability to act collectively. </p>
<p>The right emphasises the needs of business owners, enabling workers to negotiate individual workplace arrangements, with workers and employers finding outcomes that fit both sides. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-workplace-study-shows-more-than-quarter-of-employees-feel-depressed-much-of-the-time-118989">NZ workplace study shows more than quarter of employees feel depressed much of the time</a>
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<p>While these principles are well known, it’s not so easy to gauge the likely outcomes from this current election, particularly since National chose to <a href="https://ojs.aut.ac.nz/nzjer/article/view/127">release very little workplace relations policy</a> during the election campaign. </p>
<p>But it seems National will need the libertarian ACT Party to form a government, and possibly also the centrist but conservative NZ First. Coalition or support agreements will come down to how much priority each party places on workplace policy, and <a href="https://ojs.aut.ac.nz/nzjer/article/view/125">how much power they have</a> in eventual governing arrangements. </p>
<p>Those parties’ policies often conflict. NZ First wants the minimum wage to rise, while ACT wants it frozen. It’s also unlikely the economically nationalist NZ First will welcome ACT’s proposed changes to migration settings to meet worker shortages and solve tertiary sector underfunding by boosting study visas for international students.</p>
<p>If ACT sees the workplace relations portfolio as a priority, what concessions might NZ First negotiate? And how far is National prepared to go in accepting ACT’s more extreme policies? </p>
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<h2>Political footballs</h2>
<p>As we outlined in a <a href="https://ojs.aut.ac.nz/nzjer/article/view/127">recent article</a> for the New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations, there are multiple “political footballs” in play, which move backwards and forwards depending on who is in power. </p>
<p>All three potential coalition parties propose reviving <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496806/national-confirms-it-would-reinstate-90-day-trials">90-day trial periods for all businesses</a>. Other possible areas to be reversed again include <a href="https://taylorshaw.co.nz/labour-announces-changes-to-employment-law-legislation/">rest and meal breaks</a>, the “<a href="https://taylorshaw.co.nz/labour-announces-changes-to-employment-law-legislation/">30-day rule”</a> for new employees’ contract conditions, the <a href="https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1816019/changes-employment-law.pdf">requirement to settle collective negotiations</a>, plus a <a href="https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1816019/changes-employment-law.pdf">range of union rights</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-three-day-weekends-are-great-for-wellbeing-and-the-economy-205063">Why three-day weekends are great for wellbeing – and the economy</a>
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<p>The outgoing Labour-led government operated tactically by improving entitlements for large numbers of workers. This reduced the likelihood that these entitlements would become political footballs. The <a href="https://chapmantripp.com/trends-insights/employment-law-change-agenda-for-2022/">minimum wage increased</a>, paid parental leave was <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/employment-legislation-reviews/extending-paid-parental-leave/">extended</a>, Matariki became an <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/464833/matariki-public-holiday-passes-into-law">additional public holiday</a>, and <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/employment-legislation-reviews/increasing-minimum-sick-leave-entitlement/">the sick leave entitlement increased</a>. </p>
<p>For workers, these were significant gains, and attempts to wind them back would potentially provoke real discontent – and that could create a conundrum for National. </p>
<p>National has said it won’t reverse the changes to <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/04/21/matariki-luxon-says-national-aint-unwinding-a-public-holiday/">Matariki</a> or <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496806/national-confirms-it-would-reinstate-90-day-trials">sick leave</a>, conflicting with ACT’s proposal to scrap a public holiday.</p>
<h2>Unproductive change</h2>
<p>Aside from the policy detail, there is a much larger question about just how helpful this ongoing cycle of action and reaction is. New Zealand urgently needs to <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300665457/its-no-laughing-matter-poor-productivity-affects-all-new-zealanders">improve its productivity and innovation</a> to be internationally competitive. </p>
<p>But the highly politicised approach to workplace relations is framed in terms of ideologies rather than evidence-based assessment. This means New Zealand workplaces are constantly disrupted, instead of progressing towards more strategic long-term goals. </p>
<p>Finding a solution is not easy. But recent governments have used a tripartite (three-party) approach, bringing together worker, business, and government representatives to address <a href="https://www.ilo.org/declaration/events/WCMS_099523/lang--en/index.htm">larger issues</a>, such as <a href="https://www.publicservice.govt.nz/assets/DirectoryFile/Guidance-Pay-equity-context-and-principles.pdf">gender pay equity</a> and the <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/holidays-act-taskforce-final-report.pdf">Holidays Act</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nzs-always-on-culture-has-stretched-the-8-hour-workday-should-the-law-contain-a-right-to-disconnect-215444">NZ's always-on culture has stretched the 8-hour workday – should the law contain a right to disconnect?</a>
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<p>This means key stakeholders have buy-in to the resulting workplace systems, reducing the likelihood of upheavals with inevitable changes of government. </p>
<p>That approach is an example of the longer-term thinking needed to ready New Zealand for <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/innovation/navigating%20a%20world%20of%20disruption/mgi-briefing-note-navigating-a-world-of-disruption-jan-2019.pdf">massive disruptions</a> already underway. These disruptions include accelerating impacts of artificial intelligence and other technologies; the growing influence of China, India and other emerging economies; and increasing flows of capital, people and trade across borders.</p>
<p>As the pace of change increases, the consequences for economies that cannot keep up are becoming more serious. </p>
<p>Given the supposedly bipartisan aim of creating a more productive workforce, the upheavals that accompany each change of government raise real questions about how well New Zealand is meeting those challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bringing together worker, business, and government representatives helped set clearer rules for everyone on public holidays. We need to try that same approach to lift NZ’s poor productivity.Bernard Walker, Associate Professor in Organisations and Leadership, University of CanterburyDanaë Anderson, Research Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonJulienne Molineaux, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences and Public Policy, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147592023-10-27T13:12:53Z2023-10-27T13:12:53ZWhy young workers are leaving fossil fuel jobs – and what to do if you feel like ‘climate quitting’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556292/original/file-20231027-21-tz9saf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5542%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-carrying-brown-cardboard-box-resignation-1982059736">C_Production/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are you frustrated with your employer’s lack of commitment to sustainability? Maybe “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-05/how-to-quit-your-job-to-fight-climate-change">climate quitting</a>” is for you. Climate quitting means leaving your job due to concerns about your employer’s impact on the climate or because you want to work directly on addressing climate issues.</p>
<p>If you’re contemplating leaving your job over climate concerns, you’re not alone. <a href="https://www.paulpolman.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/MC_Paul-Polman_Net-Positive-Employee-Barometer_Final_web.pdf">Half of Gen Z employees</a> (people born between the late 1990s and early 2010s) in the UK have already resigned from a job due to a conflict in values. And <a href="https://www.paulpolman.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/MC_Paul-Polman_Net-Positive-Employee-Barometer_Final_web.pdf">48% of people aged 18–41</a> say they are willing to take a pay cut to work for a company that aligns with their sustainability values.</p>
<p>Oil and gas companies in particular are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oils-talent-crisis-high-salaries-are-no-longer-enough-194545be">finding it difficult to attract new talent</a>, in part because they have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/24/do-not-work-for-climate-wreckers-un-head-tells-graduates-antonio-guterres">losing credibility</a> amid the growing climate crisis. This trend of climate quitting only adds to the industry’s talent challenges.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</p>
<p>You may be interested in:</p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-challenge-toxic-behaviour-and-help-someone-being-bullied-or-harassed-at-work-214524">How to challenge toxic behaviour and help someone being bullied or harassed at work</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-you-can-future-proof-your-career-in-the-era-of-ai-207580">How you can future-proof your career in the era of AI</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/three-mindfulness-and-meditation-techniques-that-could-help-you-manage-work-stress-208328">Three mindfulness and meditation techniques that could help you manage work stress</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>Our research has involved interviewing dozens of people – including many who are still in the early stages of their careers – who have left the oil and gas industry because of their environmental concerns. The industry is often blamed for its contribution to the climate crisis, making it an ideal case to study climate quitting – despite its own efforts to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221002335">downplay its role</a> in global warming.</p>
<p>Leaving your job is never an easy decision, and the climate quitters we spoke to revealed that they had actually enjoyed many aspects of their jobs. They were paid well, found their work intellectually rewarding and had opportunities for career development and travel. So, what is motivating people to quit their jobs over climate concerns?</p>
<h2>The urgency of the climate crisis</h2>
<p>Based on the results of a <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/articles/worriesaboutclimatechangegreatbritain/septembertooctober2022#:%7E:text=Those%20most%20likely%20to%20report,with%20no%20qualifications%20(62%25)">survey from 2022</a>, people aged 16–29 are the age group most prone to feeling “very worried” about climate change. Interviews from our ongoing research confirmed this trend.</p>
<p>Most of the people we interviewed talked about the accelerating pace and urgency of tackling the climate crisis. Many mentioned the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021">International Energy Agency’s 2021 Report</a>, which proclaimed that new oil and gas exploration must stop immediately if we are to meet our climate targets. </p>
<p>But our interviewees report that their employers’ actions and priorities did not align with this sense of urgency to transition. Some reported that their employers were ignoring these warnings – even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/14/shell-drops-target-to-cut-oil-production-as-ceo-guns-for-higher-profits">rolling back their prior climate commitments</a>.</p>
<p>One of our interviewees said: “I really did not want it on my conscience that I was making the world worse, that I was using the talents and skills that I acquired for many years of study to make the world worse and bring us on the brink of a climate disaster.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four workers standing on an offshore oil rig." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556294/original/file-20231027-21-e0dgze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil and gas firms’ actions often do not align with the urgent need to transition to cleaner energy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/anchor-handling-activity-during-rig-move-1734559574">m.afiqsyahmi/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Organisational hypocrisy</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840617736938">study we carried out in 2021</a> found that many companies in the energy sector go for clean rhetoric instead of green action and dilute their responsibility to take climate action. Our interviewees witnessed hypocrisy too, or a difference between what their corporate employers publicly announced regarding the clean energy transition and what they prioritised internally.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622003036">research</a> has found that oil and gas employees are often able to live with this dissonance. But the people we interviewed reported a growing sense of discomfort and value conflict at work, which ultimately got them thinking about leaving.</p>
<p>This comes as no great shock. A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-012-1489-x">study from 2012</a> found that when employees in the oil and gas industry perceived their employers to be only pursuing environmental actions or claims in order to present a climate-friendly public image, they lose trust and identification with their employers.</p>
<h2>Failure to create change from within</h2>
<p>Our prior research finds that people often join organisations <a href="https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/from-movements-to-managers-crossing-organizational-boundaries-in-">with the specific goal</a> of trying to get their employers to better address climate change and sustainability, by <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/orsc.2020.1423">taking on new roles</a> such as sustainability managers. However, many of the interviewees from our unpublished research ultimately decided to quit following their failed attempts to affect change from within. Some had joined sustainability task forces at work, while others tried to move into roles that were focused on the clean energy transition. But, by and large, they did not feel that they were having the impact that they desired.</p>
<p>This is probably because most oil and gas companies dedicate only a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0263596">small fraction</a> of their investments and operations towards fossil fuel alternatives. This means there are few internal opportunities for climate-conscious employees.</p>
<h2>Taking on a climate job</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622003036">Research</a> finds that it’s often easier for oil and gas employees with climate concerns to overcome their sense of value conflict and dissonance by changing their own minds rather than changing their jobs. But with new opportunities in the renewable energy sector, there is increasingly a place for energy experts to go. </p>
<p>The career trajectories of our interviewees conform with grave predictions for talent in the fossil fuel industry. A <a href="https://www.getireport.com/">survey of 10,000 energy professionals</a> in 2022 found that 82% of respondents would consider switching out of oil and gas within the next three years. Half of these people said they hoped to move into renewables. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two workers at a solar farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556295/original/file-20231027-15-314zz6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many people are leaving their jobs to work directly on the climate crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/solar-power-station-736731844">Mark Agnor/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If you’re considering this type of move, there is a growing community of organisations with the mission to mobilise for climate quitting – including <a href="https://workonclimate.org/">Work on Climate</a>, <a href="https://terra.do/">Terra.do</a> and <a href="https://www.mcjcollective.com/">My Climate Journey</a>. They provide mentoring, support networks, job boards and training to help people move into climate jobs.</p>
<p>It may be time for oil and gas firms to finally reconsider their business decisions in the wake of employees’ concerns about the climate crisis and in pursuing value alignment in their work.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grace Augustine receives funding from The British Academy and Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Birthe Soppe receives funding from the Norwegian Research Council through the research centre INTRANSIT. </span></em></p>The oil and gas industry is struggling to retain talent – here’s why.Grace Augustine, Associate Professor in Business & Society, University of BathBirthe Soppe, Associate Professor of Organisation Studies, University of InnsbruckLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2150472023-10-15T12:27:49Z2023-10-15T12:27:49ZThe impact of work on well-being: 6 factors that will affect the future of work and health inequalities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553696/original/file-20231013-21-iobxz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1140%2C729%2C4035%2C2661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If public health bodies and policymakers put greater focus on improving the work environment, it could achieve major gains in population health and reduce health inequities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-impact-of-work-on-well-being-6-factors-that-will-affect-the-future-of-work-and-health-inequalities" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Work has long been considered a <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/population-health/what-determines-health.html">social determinant of health</a>. Like housing, education, income security and other matters of economic and social policy, work can be a key factor in creating, maintaining or exacerbating unequal health outcomes across different societal groups. </p>
<p>But if work is already understood to be a social determinant of health by regulators and policymakers, it has been underused as a lever to address health inequities. That’s the main case we — an international group of work and health researchers — have made in a series of articles on the relationships between work and health <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/work-and-health">recently published in <em>The Lancet</em></a>. </p>
<p>In these articles, we suggest that if public health bodies and policymakers put greater focus on improving the work environment, it could achieve major gains in population health and reduce health inequities. </p>
<p>There are historical examples that demonstrate this is possible — such as the <a href="https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C001">1919 Hours of Work Convention</a>, where International Labour Organization member states agreed to limit working hours to improve health — but they remain infrequent. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three construction workers in hardhats and orange vests seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553697/original/file-20231013-28-yirgbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not enough attention is paid to the role that work conditions and environments play in creating, worsening or even alleviating health inequities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, occupational health tends to be siloed from broader population health, and occupational health and safety activity tends to focus on visible work hazards related to injuries and illnesses. Less attention is paid to the role that work conditions and environments play in creating, worsening or even alleviating health inequities. </p>
<p>Yet, broader societal factors such as immigration, affordable daycare, education and training, and disability policy impact the availability and nature of work; and work conditions also have reciprocal impacts on these societal factors.</p>
<h2>Work and health</h2>
<p>The unequal distribution of diseases across occupational groups has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105%2FAJPH.91.9.1382">documented since the 1700s</a>. However, it wasn’t until the 1980s, with studies using large employer cohorts, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyh372">Whitehall cohorts</a>, that modern research methods of epidemiology (causes and distribution of diseases and health) were used to break down the contributions of specific lifestyle, biomedical and work-related factors on differences in worker health.</p>
<p>The Whitehall studies on white-collar civil servants — occupations historically considered safe — highlighted that <a href="https://reflexus.org/wp-content/uploads/wii-booklet.pdf">factors such as low control over one’s work</a> were related to leading causes of disease. </p>
<p>In the decades since, research methods and opportunities to link data have evolved. Large multinational cohorts, including hundreds of thousands of participants linked to administrative health service data, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.3485">are now possible</a>. </p>
<p>These advances in data and quantitative methods increasingly allow us to ask more policy-relevant <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/oemed-2023-109085">“what if” questions</a> about the broader health impacts of changes to specific aspects of the work environment. </p>
<h2>Factors that will affect work and health inequity</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Agricultural workers in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553612/original/file-20231013-23-xynr1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Policymakers need to pay attention to the distinctive patterns of health inequities experienced by different groups of migrant workers and provide tailored protective measures for each group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/work-and-health"><em>Lancet</em> series</a> includes a paper that analyzes evidence and provides recommendations on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00869-3">workplace mental health</a>, and another that focuses on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00868-1">labour market inclusion</a>. </p>
<p>In addition to these areas, we also prioritize <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00871-1">six factors that will impact work and health inequities</a> into the future. These are: </p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Telework</strong>. The rise in telework or remote work can lead to reduced psychosocial support from colleagues and greater social isolation. It may also erode responsibility by both employers and regulators for ensuring health and safety of those working from home.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>International migrant workers</strong>. Refugees, immigrant and temporary migrant workers experience different labour market and <a href="https://doi.org/10.25318/82-003-x201900400001-eng">health trajectories</a> after arrival in Canada. Policymakers need to pay attention to the distinctive patterns of health inequities experienced by different groups of migrant workers and provide tailored protective measures for each group. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Intersections between gender, age, race, ethnicity and social class</strong>. We need to pay attention to the compounding effects that different social stratifiers have on the types of jobs (and subsequent differences in physical and psychological exposures at work) available to different groups in society, and identify opportunities to address these differences. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Precarious employment</strong>. With the continued erosion of full-time, permanent jobs and the rise of platform-based gig work, precarious work continues to spread across the global labour force. While precarious work is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ajim.22535">greater workplace hazards and fewer protections</a>, there is no reason this needs to be the case. We need to develop and implement innovative approaches, such as portable benefits, to make this type of work relationship safer.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Long and irregular work hours</strong>. Working long or irregular hours is associated with higher risks of <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_792131/lang--en/index.htm">stroke and heart disease</a>, greater alcohol use and work injuries. Regulations on working time are a central theme of labour rights and labour protections, but the relationship between working time and worker health depends on social context. While those in secure and stable work may see health benefits from working fewer hours, for those in freelance, contract, self-employed and other similar arrangements, reduced hours means less income security. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Climate change</strong>. The effects of climate change on work are difficult to predict, though potentially severe. While it is clear that increased ambient temperature, air pollution, ultraviolet radiation exposure, extreme weather and the spread of vector-borne diseases will directly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15459624.2016.1179388">impact some industries and occupations</a>, the flow-on effects across the labour market are less clear. We need to ensure these effects are not disproportionately impacting those in the lowest-paid jobs, who likely have the least resources to withstand the challenges. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Reducing health inequities</h2>
<p>In the face of these emerging challenges, there is a need to develop and test interventions to reduce work-related determinants of unequal health.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People in white chef uniforms working in a restaurant kitchen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553698/original/file-20231013-19-igp16f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regulations about hazards at work have been the exclusive domain of occupational health and safety specialists for too long.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>These interventions can target individual workers when appropriate, but to be most effective, they should focus more broadly on changes at the organizational level, such as workplaces, and at sectoral and societal levels, including provincial, territorial and national policies that affect workplaces. This will only be possible with greater collaboration across both research and professional disciplines, as well as provincial and federal ministries. </p>
<p>Regulations about hazards at work have been the exclusive domain of occupational health and safety specialists for too long. Addressing the broader aspects of work and working conditions that are social determinants of health will need greater involvement from other fields, including economists, legal scholars, and social and political scientists. </p>
<p>Occupational health needs to work hand-in-hand with other sectors — including but not limited to public health — to develop, implement and evaluate policy solutions that will help make the work people do, and the environments they work in, healthier and more equitable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215047/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Smith receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, WorkSafeBC and the Ontario Workplace Safety & Insurance Board. The Institute for Work & Health is supported in part through funding from the Ontario Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arjumand Siddiqi receives funding from the Canadian Institute of Health Research and the Government of Canada's Canada Research Chairs Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cameron Mustard receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. The Institute for Work & Health is supported in part through funding from the Ontario Ministry of Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John William Frank has only ever received research funding from public sector research funding agencies in Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. - many millions of dollars over the last 40 years. All of that funding terminated in 2021, as he is now largely retired. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Reiner Rugulies is employed at the National Research Centre for the Working Environment, Copenhagen, Denmark (NFA), which is a Danish governmental sector research institute under the ministry of employment. Rugulies’s work at NFA is funded by several research grants from public funding agencies, including the Danish Working Environment Research Fund, the European Union Horizon 2020 Research Programme and the European Union Horizon Europe Research Programme.</span></em></p>The work environment is a social determinant of health. However, work has been underused as a lever to address health inequalities.Peter Smith, Senior Scientist, Institute for Work & Health. Professor, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of TorontoArjumand Siddiqi, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Population Health Equity, University of TorontoCameron Mustard, Professor of Epidemiology (Emeritis), University of TorontoJohn William Frank, Professorial Fellow, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of EdinburghReiner Rugulies, Adjunct Professor, Psychosocial Medicine, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141252023-09-26T15:00:50Z2023-09-26T15:00:50ZFossil fuel workers have the skills to succeed in green jobs, but location is a major barrier to a just transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549816/original/file-20230922-28-33hz0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C16%2C5599%2C3687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renewable energy jobs often aren't close to fossil fuel workers' homes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/portrait-of-a-wind-turbine-engineer-royalty-free-image/1433295579">Prapass Pulsub/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the U.S. shifts away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, thousands of coal, oil and gas workers will be looking for new jobs. </p>
<p>Many will have the skills to step into new jobs in the emerging clean energy industries, but the transition may not be <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">as simple as it seems</a>. New research published in the journal Nature Communications <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">identifies a major barrier</a> that is often overlooked in discussions of how to create a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">just transition</a> for these workers: location.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HZcCKu8AAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pia9kOsAAAAJ&hl=en">analyzed</a> 14 years of fossil fuel employment and skills data and found that, while many fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">could transfer their skills to green jobs</a>, they historically have not relocated far when they changed jobs.</p>
<p>That suggests that it’s not enough to create green industry jobs. The jobs will have to be where the workers are, and most fossil fuel extraction workers are not in regions where green jobs are expected to grow. </p>
<p>Without careful planning and targeted policies, we estimate that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">only about 2%</a> of fossil fuel workers involved in extraction are likely to transition to green jobs this decade. Fortunately, there are ways to help smooth the transition.</p>
<h2>Many fossil fuel and green skills overlap</h2>
<p>As of 2019, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2021.02.22_BrookingsMetro_FossilFuel-MethodologyAppendix.pdf">about 1.7 million people</a> worked in jobs across the fossil fuels industry in the U.S., many of them in the regions from Texas and New Mexico to Montana and from Kentucky to Pennsylvania. As the country transitions from fossil fuel use to clean energy to protect the climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-coal-industry-shrinks-miners-deserve-a-just-transition-heres-what-it-should-include-116340">many of those jobs will disappear</a>.</p>
<p>Policymakers tend to focus on skills training when they talk about the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">importance of a just transition</a> for these workers and their communities.</p>
<p>To see how fossil fuel workers’ skills might transfer to green jobs, we used <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/onet">occupation and skills data</a> from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compare them. These profiles provide information about the required workplace skills for over 750 occupations, including earth drillers, underground mining machine operators and other extraction occupations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers in hard hats reach for pipes in a tall stand of pipes at a finishing well in Oklahoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fossil fuel extraction jobs and renewable energy jobs are often hands-on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-oil-well-worker-pumps-pipes-from-a-finishing-well-news-photo/509077802">J Pat Carter/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Overall, we found that many fossil fuel workers involved in extraction already have similar skills to those required in green occupations, <a href="https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/sites/default/files/transitionforfossilfuelworkers.pdf">as previous studies also found</a>. In fact, their skills tend to be more closely matched to green industries than most other industries.</p>
<p><a href="https://j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov/">Job-to-job flow data</a> from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that these workers historically tend to transition to other sectors with similar skills requirements. Thus, fossil fuel workers should be able to fill emerging green jobs with only minimal reskilling. </p>
<p>However, the data also shows that these fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">typically do not travel far</a> to fill employment opportunities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker stands in the nacelle of a wind turbine far above the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A technician makes adjustments to a wind turbine in Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iip-photo-archive/23095737515">Dennis Schroeder/NREL</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<h2>The location problem</h2>
<p>When we mapped the <a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/%7Emrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">current locations</a> of wind, solar, hydro and geothermal power plants using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, we found that these sites had little overlap with fossil fuel workers.</p>
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projections for where green jobs are <a href="https://www.bls.gov/emp/">likely to emerge by 2029</a> also showed little overlap with the locations of today’s fossil fuel workers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The map shows pockets across the U.S., such as California, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Where green jobs linked to solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower production can be found.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">Morgan Frank/University of Pittsburgh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>These results were consistent across several green employment projections and different definitions of “fossil fuel” occupations. That’s alarming for the prospects of a just transition. </p>
<h2>How policymakers can intervene</h2>
<p>Broadly, our findings point to two potential strategies for policymakers.</p>
<p>First, policymakers can explore incentives and programs that help fossil fuel workers relocate. However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">as our analysis</a> reveals, these populations have not historically exhibited geographic mobility.</p>
<p>Alternatively, policymakers could design incentives for green industry employers to build in fossil fuel communities. This might not be so simple. Green energy production often depends on where the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/wind/where-wind-power-is-harnessed.php">wind blows strongest</a>, <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar-resource-maps.html">solar power production is most effective</a> and <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/geothermal.html">geothermal</a> power or hydropower is available.</p>
<p>We simulated the creation of new green industry employment in two different ways, one targeting fossil fuel communities and the other spread uniformly across the U.S. according to population. The targeted efforts led to significantly more transitions from fossil fuel to green jobs. For example, we found that creating 1 million location-targeted jobs produced more transitions than the creation of 5 million jobs that don’t take workers’ locations into account.</p>
<p>Another solution doesn’t involve green jobs at all. A similar analysis in our study of other existing U.S. sectors revealed that construction and manufacturing employment are already co-located with fossil fuel workers and would require only limited reskilling. Supporting manufacturing expansion in these areas could be a simpler solution that could limit the number of new employers needed to support a just transition.</p>
<p>There are other questions <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/07/21/biden-green-jobs-unions-labor/">that worry fossil fuel workers</a>, such as whether new jobs will pay as well and last beyond construction. More research is needed to assess effective policy interventions, but overall our study highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to a just transition that takes into account the unique challenges faced by fossil fuel workers in different regions. </p>
<p>By responding to these barriers, the U.S. can help ensure that the transition to a green economy is not only environmentally sustainable but also socially just.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan R. Frank receives funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Junghyun Lim received funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p>In a greener future, what becomes of current fossil fuel workers? Despite possessing skills applicable to green industries, their geographical locations will limit their opportunities.Morgan R. Frank, Assistant Professor of Informatics, University of PittsburghJunghyun Lim, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143572023-09-26T06:09:08Z2023-09-26T06:09:08ZThe Albanese government blew its shot at setting a historic new unemployment target<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550177/original/file-20230926-15-aybg8t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=838%2C362%2C3477%2C1920&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government’s employment white paper is “<a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/working-future-white-paper-jobs-and-opportunities">ambitious</a>”. I’m not convinced.</p>
<p>A clearly ambitious statement would have specified a target for unemployment, ideally one that was a bit of a stretch.</p>
<p>The Keating Labor government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-australian-workers-are-either-underemployed-or-out-of-work-white-paper-210967">Working Nation</a> statement did that in 1994. Released at a time when unemployment was almost 10%, it specified a target unemployment rate of <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550136/original/file-20230925-26-rz0hz2.PNG">5%</a> – an ambition that served as a beacon for decades.</p>
<p>That target certainly needs to be updated. Unemployment is now well below 5%, meaning “full employment” is now much less than 5%. Yet the Albanese government has passed up a historic opportunity to say how much less, which it could have done by setting its own target.</p>
<h2>Setting our sights below 5%</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/employment-whitepaper/final-report">white paper</a> released <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-australian-workers-is-either-underemployed-or-out-of-work-white-paper-210967">on Monday</a> defines full employment as a state in which “everyone who wants a job should be able to find one without searching for too long”. That means our unemployment target ought to be somewhere between zero and 5%. </p>
<p>Of course, the unemployment rate can never be zero. </p>
<p>There will always be people out of work while they are moving between jobs, what the white paper calls “frictional” unemployment. That will also be true when Australia’s mix of employers changes – what the paper calls “structural” unemployment, as new industries requiring one sort of training replace old industries that required another.</p>
<p>The white paper says what matters in addition to unemployment (539,700 Australians) is “underemployment” in which people work fewer hours than they want (1 million) and “potential workers” who would like work but aren’t actively looking and so aren’t counted as unemployed (1.3 million). </p>
<p>I get that these things matter. I get that we need, in the words of the white paper, “a higher level of ambition than is implied by statistical measures”. </p>
<h2>What gets measured gets done</h2>
<p>But that higher level of ambition ought not replace targets.</p>
<p>If a target isn’t specific, it isn’t a target at all (or at best it’s a fuzzy target). That means it’s less likely to be aimed at and less likely to be hit.</p>
<p>That’s how it’s been with full employment itself. In 1996 Treasurer Peter Costello and the man he appointed Reserve Bank governor, Ian Macfarlane, signed what became the first <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/1996/sep/pdf/bu-0996-1.pdf">Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy</a>, an agreement that’s been updated <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/framework/">six times</a>.</p>
<p>As with all of the agreements since, that first statement set out an inflation target (“between 2% and 3%, on average, over the cycle”) but <em>not</em> an employment target – even though both are meant to be objectives under the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/our-role.html">Reserve Bank Act</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, Governor Macfarlane was able to step down ten years later, secure in the knowledge that on average he had hit the middle of the target band: 2.5% inflation. His successor Glenn Stevens stepped down ten years further on, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-gov-2016-08-10.html">quietly boasting</a> the same thing.</p>
<p>But neither could make any boast about hitting the employment target – because there wasn’t one. </p>
<h2>How failing to set a target costs jobs</h2>
<p>The governor who has just retired, Philip Lowe, looks like he’ll hit an inflation average of 2.8%, which is pretty low given how high inflation has been lately.</p>
<p>But an estimate by former Reserve Bank staffer Isaac Gross, prepared using the Reserve Bank’s own economic model, suggests that in doing so he kept unemployment a good deal higher than it needed to be between 2016 and 2019 – the equivalent of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rbas-failure-to-cut-rates-faster-may-have-cost-270-000-jobs-185381">270,000</a> people being out of work for one year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rbas-failure-to-cut-rates-faster-may-have-cost-270-000-jobs-185381">The RBA's failure to cut rates faster may have cost 270,000 jobs</a>
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<p>Lowe wasn’t held to account for the extra unemployed in the same way as he is being <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/don-t-judge-phil-lowe-s-inflation-fighting-legacy-yet-20230912-p5e3x6">held to account</a> for his performance on inflation. Why? Because he was never actually given an unemployment target.</p>
<p>I am quite prepared to acknowledge that other measures of employment matter, underemployment among them. But here’s the thing: they move in line with unemployment. </p>
<p>When Australia’s unemployment rate falls, Australia’s underemployment rate falls, almost in tandem. </p>
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<p>It’s easy to see why. As employers find it hard to hire new workers, they get existing workers to put in more hours. And retirees and others who haven’t been looking for work begin putting themselves out there. </p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp">participation rate</a> measures the proportion of the population making itself available for work. As unemployment has fallen, it has climbed to an <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/labor-force-participation-rate">all-time high</a>. </p>
<h2>Our unemployment rate is a proxy for what matters</h2>
<p>This makes the unemployment rate just about the perfect proxy for everything else about the labour market that matters, and just about the perfect number to target.</p>
<p>The Albanese government could have recognised that this week – setting a stretch target of 3% (or even 4%) as an aspiration. Even that would have been less “ambitious” than Keating choosing 5%, when the rate was twice as high.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521977/original/file-20230419-24-2xae0m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1215&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://rbareview.gov.au/">2023 RBA Review</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Treasurer Chalmers says the government didn’t set a target because apparently the unemployment rate <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/p2023-447996-04-ch2.pdf">doesn’t capture</a> “the full extent of spare capacity in our economy or the full potential of our workforce”.</p>
<p>The saving grace is this government has a second chance at this. Chalmers is about to update the Reserve Bank’s statement of expectations, the one that until now hasn’t included a target for unemployment.</p>
<p>It would be open to him to put a specific target in there – making the RBA as accountable as it is now on inflation.</p>
<p>At the moment, it looks more likely Chalmers will adopt a recommendation of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-the-rba-review-wont-mean-handing-the-banks-decisions-to-part-time-outsiders-214030">independent review</a> of the bank, which reported in March.</p>
<p>That review recommended the bank be <a href="https://rbareview.gov.au/sites/rbareview.gov.au/files/2023-06/rbareview-report-at_0.pdf">required</a> to produce its own “best assessment of full employment at any point time”, including its estimate of the lowest rate of unemployment that can be sustained without accelerating inflation.</p>
<p>It would be a small step forward. That full employment estimate would become a number to watch, in the same way as the bank’s performance on inflation is at the moment. </p>
<p>But it still won’t be an official government target. The Albanese government had an opportunity to live up to its ambitious rhetoric – and it passed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-australian-workers-is-either-underemployed-or-out-of-work-white-paper-210967">1 in 5 Australian workers is either underemployed or out of work: white paper</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>30 years ago, Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating adopted an ambitious official target for Australian unemployment. The Albanese government just passed up a historic opportunity to go even further.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2109672023-09-25T04:18:34Z2023-09-25T04:18:34Z1 in 5 Australian workers is either underemployed or out of work: white paper<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549911/original/file-20230925-29-wkkf68.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=397%2C593%2C3610%2C1811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Commonwealth Treasury</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today’s <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/employment-whitepaper/final-report">employment white paper</a> has adopted the broadest-ever definition of what “full employment” means for Australia.</p>
<p>The new paper says closer to 2.8 million Australians are either underemployed or out of work – equivalent to one-fifth of the current workforce. That new estimate is much higher than the official unemployment total of 539,700.</p>
<p>Going further than any of the previous employment white papers over the past 80 years, the new report defines full employment as meaning </p>
<blockquote>
<p>everyone who wants a job should be able to find one without searching for too long</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While it commits the government to keeping employment as close as possible to the current maximum sustainable level “consistent with low and stable inflation”, it goes further, noting that this measure – the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) – has been falling and is hard to estimate.</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>The white paper still cautions that “full employment” does not mean zero unemployment. </p>
<p>There will always be some “frictional unemployment” (as people change jobs) and “structural unemployment” (as industries decline or skills do not match needs). But it commits the government to minimise “cyclical unemployment”: unemployment caused by the state of the economy. </p>
<p>It incorporates into its definition of full employment “underemployment”, which happens when people who do have jobs are unable to get the number of hours they want.</p>
<h2>Underemployment and unemployment approach 2.8 million</h2>
<p>While 539,700 Australians are unemployed, there are another 1 million who are employed but want to work more. And there are another 1.3 million “potential workers” who are interested in working, but not currently actively looking. </p>
<p>This lifts the total number of Australians who are in some way unemployed to 2.8 million, according to the white paper.</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>The white paper also talks of “inclusive full employment”, by which it means “broadening labour market opportunities” to encourage more people to seek jobs. </p>
<p>Economists refer to this as further increasing the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp">participation rate</a>, which is already near a record high. </p>
<p>Enhanced support for childcare (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/03/labor-says-12-million-families-to-benefit-from-childcare-subsidies-in-9b-budget-boost">already announced</a> in Labor’s first budget) is one of the sorts of measures that would help, reducing barriers to work for parents.</p>
<p>Another, announced in this white paper, is a permanent extension of the A$11,800 work bonus for pensioners over age pension age and eligible veterans, which was temporarily lifted from $7,800 to $11,800 in the October 2022 budget.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/employment-white-paper-to-deliver-more-highly-qualified-workers-in-net-zero-care-and-digitisation-214229">Employment white paper to deliver more highly qualified workers in net zero, care and digitisation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Employment white papers date back to WWII</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first Australian government employment white paper. </p>
<p>The very first was released by the wartime Curtin government in 1945, entitled <a href="https://www.billmitchell.org/White_Paper_1945/index.html">Full Employment in Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Curtin wanted to ensure that post-war unemployment would not return to the extraordinarily high levels experienced in the 1930s.</p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>That 1945 white paper was inspired by the <a href="https://c59574e9047e61130f13-3f71d0fe2b653c4f00f32175760e96e7.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/2312B65342E04F2B8107131C635023BD.pdf">British white paper</a> released in 1944, which set out an ambitious plan to carry forward the high employment achieved during wartime into peacetime. </p>
<p>A large team of economists and other experts, led by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2022/dec/hc-coombs-governor-of-australias-central-bank-1949-1968.html">HC “Nugget” Coombs</a>, spent almost a year preparing the white paper, producing <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/2280277">eight drafts</a>.</p>
<h2>No specific target for our unemployment rate</h2>
<p>As with today’s white paper, the 1945 full employment white paper didn’t put a number on the unemployment rate which corresponds to “full employment” – although early drafts of the 1945 paper included numbers ranging from 2% to 5%.</p>
<p>The 1965 <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/remember-the-heyday-of-keynsian-economics-20150529-ghcff6.html">Vernon Report</a> on the economy was more optimistic, defining full employment as an unemployment rate of 1 to 1.5%.</p>
<p>The Keating government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/keatings-working-nation-plan-for-jobs-was-hijacked-by-bureaucracy-cabinet-papers-1994-95-89013">Working Nation</a> paper – released in 1994 when unemployment was almost 10% – adopted a target of 5% by 2000. That wasn’t quite met – unemployment remained above 6% in 2000, but fell to 5% by 2004.</p>
<p>By 2010, many economists regarded <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/few-good-reasons-why-5-unemployment-is-considered-full-employment-20100709-1047v.html">5%</a> as effectively “full employment”.</p>
<p>In June this year, the present Reserve Bank governor, Michele Bullock, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/pdf/sp-dg-2023-06-20.pdf">defined</a> full employment as</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the point at which there is a balance between demand and supply in the labour market (and in the markets for goods and services) with inflation at the inflation target</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She nominated an unemployment rate of around <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/pdf/sp-dg-2023-06-20.pdf">4.5%</a>. </p>
<p>Australian economists surveyed by The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia last month nominated <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-and-should-keep-unemployment-below-4-say-top-economists-211277">4%</a>. Curiously, that’s the same rate nominated by the Department of Postwar Reconstruction’s Chief Economist, Trevor Swan, in work for the full employment white paper in 1945. </p>
<p>The words, but not the numbers, in today’s employment white paper are consistent with an unemployment rate of 4% or lower. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-and-should-keep-unemployment-below-4-say-top-economists-211277">We can and should keep unemployment below 4%, say top economists</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Few ideas for lifting productivity</h2>
<p>The white paper identifies labour productivity (output per hour worked) as crucial to increasing the purchasing power of wages, yet details few ideas for increasing it.</p>
<p>Labour productivity has slowed over recent decades, and in recent years has actually fallen. The causes are not obvious. Some of it may be a temporary reflection of the very desirable reductions in unemployment. </p>
<p>Workers who have been out of work for a while are, at first, likely to produce less than workers already in work.</p>
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<hr>
<p>Declining labour productivity is also likely to reflect the gradual shift from manufacturing to services. </p>
<p>The white paper says the services sector now accounts for more than 80% of employment, compared to around 50% at the turn of the 20th century.</p>
<p>Productivity in many services is hard to increase. A haircut or a live performance of Vivaldi’s Four Seasons by a string quartet takes about as many hours of labour now as it did a century ago. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-employment-white-paper-commits-to-jobs-for-all-who-want-them-and-help-to-get-them-214256">Government's employment white paper commits to jobs for all who want them – and help to get them</a>
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<p>But weak productivity probably also reflects other things. The white paper refers to evidence that dynamism and innovation have declined in Australia. This is not easy to address. The government’s two-year <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/competition-review-2023">competition review</a> will help. </p>
<p>And low investment is another problem. Companies might not be moving fast enough to equip workers with the tools they need to help them produce more. </p>
<p>A more robust economy might encourage them to invest, as could tax changes – but they were beyond the scope of this white paper.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210967/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist in the Australian Treasury.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Selwyn Cornish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new paper says closer to 2.8 million Australians are in some way unemployed, equivalent to one-fifth of the current workforce. That’s much more than the official unemployment total of 539,700.John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of CanberraSelwyn Cornish, Adjunct Associate Professor, Research School of Economics, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2126782023-09-01T15:41:04Z2023-09-01T15:41:04ZJobs are up, wages less so – and lower purchasing power could still lead the US into a recession<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545977/original/file-20230901-25275-sig91v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5631%2C3771&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Economists are feeling dismal for a reason.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/man-with-empty-wallet-royalty-free-image/80992590">IS/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Don’t be overly fooled by seemingly rosy jobs data heading into the Labor Day weekend.</p>
<p>Yes, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August 2023</a> – faster than the revised 157,000 increase for July and above most <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/markets/august-jobs-report-forecasts-predict-strong-cooling-growth">analysts’ expectations for the month</a>. And yes, gains were seen across most industries, with health care and social assistance adding 97,300 positions, leisure and hospitality boosting numbers by 40,000, construction up by 22,000 jobs, and 16,000 additional general manufacturing jobs.</p>
<p>But there was also enough in the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">data released by Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> on Sept. 1 to give comfort – of sorts – to the “<a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Jeremiah#:%7E:text=%3A%20person%20who%20is%20pessimistic%20about%20the%20present%20and%20foresees%20a%20calamitous%20future">Jeremiahs</a>” among us economists. I’ll explain.</p>
<p>While jobs were up, so too was the unemployment rate, which ticked up a modest 0.3% from July to 3.8%. And average hourly earnings <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003">increased by just 0.2% in the month to US$33.82</a> – working out to a rather paltry 8 cent increase.</p>
<p>To me, rather than indicating that the job market is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/01/1197022768/jobs-labor-day-economy-inflation#:%7E:text=The%20jobs%20market%20is%20holding,that%20added%20the%20most%20jobs.">moving along at a healthy clip</a>, as some suggest, it shows signs of something else: a continuing slowdown.</p>
<h2>Look at the long-term trend</h2>
<p>The fact that, overall, jobs expanded a bit faster than expected doesn’t suggest that the economy is ramping up and inflation is going to spike again soon. Rather, it mostly speaks to the difficulty in predicting month-to-month movements. There’s good reason, perhaps, that economics is sometimes <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dismalscience.asp">called “the dismal science</a>” – we aren’t always that good at saying with certainty what will happen over the short term.</p>
<p>Monthly data has its place in making assessments and guiding policy, for sure. But focusing on just one month can be misleading as the data can be quite volatile. </p>
<p>The underlying trends are what matter more. And that is where I see signs of a slowdown.</p>
<p>In 2022, labor demand – as measured by job openings plus nonfarm employment – exceeded labor supply, as measured by the labor force. In other words, there were <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2023/apr/state-level-us-labor-market-supply-demand">more job openings than people willing to fill</a> the positions.</p>
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<p>As a result, we saw labor earnings increase by 5.1% relative to 2021. Great news for employees, but less so for the Federal Reserve: Higher wages combined with supply chain disruptions and the effect of war in Ukraine meant that the inflation rate, as measured by consumer price index growth, rose 7.7% in 2022.</p>
<p>To tame inflation, the Fed embarked on a program of aggressive interest-rate hikes. This resulted in a general economic slowdown by the beginning of 2023. The housing market cooled. Construction and related markets slowed.</p>
<p>But now labor supply is outpacing labor demand – there are more people looking for jobs than there are openings.</p>
<p>Based on the first seven months of data in 2023, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf">wage growth</a> has slowed to 3.4% compared to 2022, as has general inflation, slowing to 3.5%.</p>
<p>So where is the economy heading? The preponderance of the data <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-leading-indicators-point-recession-starting-soon-2023-07-20">is pointing to a general economic slowdown</a>. As a result, some suggest the U.S. economy may be <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/soft-landing-means-chances-happen/story?id=94086706#:%7E:text=But%20the%20central%20bank%20hopes%20it%20can%20cool,landing%20at%20an%20event%20at%20the%20Brookings%20Institution">heading for a “soft landing</a>,” where inflation rates reach 2% to 2.5% as the U.S. avoids recession.</p>
<p>But when it comes to the chances of recession, the economy is not quite out of the woods yet. True, inflation is trending down. But earnings have generally grown slower than inflation, resulting in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/business/consumer-retail-shopping.html">loss of purchasing power</a> for consumers.</p>
<p>Less cash to spend on goods doesn’t appear to have hit the economy yet. <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main">Consumer spending</a> in the first seven months of 2023 was up 1.9% on the previous year, by my calculations. However, there is evidence that a lot of this was due to consumers purchasing on credit. Credit card debt reached <a href="https://theweek.com/economy/1026198/american-consumers-credit-crisis">a staggering $1.3 trillion</a> in the second quarter of 2023.</p>
<p>This is not sustainable. At some point soon, consumer spending will have to slow.
And given that consumer spending represents <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2008/10/30/consumer-spending-accounts-for-two-thirds-of-us-economy">about two-thirds of total GDP</a>, a recession could still occur. </p>
<p>My best guess at the moment is that a recession is most likely to occur in early 2024, after the usual spending spree that is the holidays. But fortunately, thanks to the Fed’s recent efforts to decelerate the economy gradually, a major contraction is unlikely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Decker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest labor figures are less encouraging than they might seem.Christopher Decker, Professor of Economics, University of Nebraska OmahaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124402023-08-29T20:11:40Z2023-08-29T20:11:40ZTo boost Indigenous employment, we need to map job opportunities to skills and qualifications. Our new project does just that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545177/original/file-20230829-28-obrmx6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C787%2C5002%2C2542&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For employers wanting to recruit Indigenous workers, two key factors stand in their way: geography combined with lack of job diversity, and a mismatch between educational qualifications and job opportunities. </p>
<p>We’ve charted this mismatch with the <a href="https://indigenous-jobsmap.csiro.au/#/">Indigenous Jobs Map</a>, using artificial intelligence to analyse more than 10 million job ads.</p>
<p>The map, is an Indigenous-led project supported by researchers and experts across CSIRO and external organisations.</p>
<p>It identifies three types of Indigenous-related job ads: those seeking an Indigenous candidate; those seeking “cultural capability” (for which a non-Indigenous candidate might also qualify); and jobs for which Indigenous candidates are encouraged to apply.</p>
<p>Using AI to analyse all job ads posted in Australia between 2016 and 2022, we calculate: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>about 10% of all ads encouraged Indigenous applicants. These were ads stating that applications from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples were welcomed or encouraged.</p></li>
<li><p>about 2% were for roles that required Indigenous cultural knowledge, skills and expertise, or experience working with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.</p></li>
<li><p>about 1% were for roles that only Indigenous peoples can apply for (or which give priority to Indigenous applicants in the selection process). These roles typically involve direct interaction with Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander communities. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, Indigenous workers can apply for any job, regardless of whether it specifically targets or encourages Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander applicants.</p>
<p>However, the 2.3% of job ads for Indigenous people or requiring Indigenous cultural capability reflects the strong demand for Indigenous talent in the Australian labour market.</p>
<p>The number of these advertisements is increasing; in 2016 they represented 1.0% of Australian job ads and by 2022 they had reached 3.6%. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people comprise about 2% of the workforce (either employed or actively seeking work). </p>
<p>So why aren’t these efforts to attract Indigenous workers making more of a difference?</p>
<h2>Geographic mismatch</h2>
<p>The infographic illustrates how geography limits these efforts. Each bubble represents a region of Australia. The size of the bubble represents the number of Indigenous workers in the region. </p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>Regions above the horizontal black line have a higher-than-average proportion of Indigenous-focused job ads. Regions below this line have fewer Indigenous-focused job postings than average. </p>
<p>Regions to the left of the vertical line have a lower-than-average proportion of Indigenous workers in their labour market. Regions to the right have a higher-than-average proportion of Indigenous workers. </p>
<p>If demand for Indigenous workers was aligned with supply, most regions would be positioned on, or near the red diagonal line. </p>
<p>Instead, we see many regions where demand for Indigenous workers is relatively high but the supply of Indigenous workers is relatively low. </p>
<p>The Ballarat region in Victoria illustrates this disparity, with 2,910 Indigenous- focused job ads compared to an Indigenous workforce of 640 individuals. In contrast, in the New England region of New South Wales, there were 5,821 Indigenous workers and 2,483 Indigenous-focused job ads. </p>
<p>In other words, employers are recruiting for Indigenous talent in the wrong places. </p>
<h2>Limited range of job types</h2>
<p>There is also a lack of diversity in the roles being advertised. Most are in just three sectors: public administration and safety; health care and social assistance; and education and training. A disproportionate number are for community and personal-service worker roles.</p>
<p>This strong sector-specific demand does not align with the qualifications of the Indigenous workforce.</p>
<p>For example, we counted 7,610 Indigenous focused job ads requiring a qualification in medicine. But the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/IQSAUS">2021 Census</a> counted just 585 Indigenous people holding their highest qualification in medicine.</p>
<p>The following chart illustrates these demand and supply differences according to educational field. </p>
<hr>
<hr>
<p>The size of each bubble reflects the number of Indigenous workers with formal qualifications in this field. The position of the bubble (to the left or right of the vertical line) reflects the proportion of Indigenous-focused job ads that require this qualification. </p>
<p>Employers post job ads seeking Indigenous workers with qualifications in society and culture, health and education. While Indigenous workers are likely to have qualifications in society and culture, they are not well represented in health and education. Indigenous workers are better represented in fields such as agriculture and environment, society and culture and food, hospitality and personal services.</p>
<p>Job ads targeting Indigenous workers are not found across the board. When we look across all jobs ads (not just those targeting Indigenous workers), management and commerce qualifications are in highest demand. The opportunities for Indigenous workers are limited in diversity and often not well-aligned with the educational pathways commonly chosen by Indigenous peoples.</p>
<h2>Feast and famine</h2>
<p>The effect of this geographic and qualification mismatch is to create a landscape of feast (for some) and famine (for many others). </p>
<p>For instance, in Melbourne there were more than 60,000 Indigenous-focused job ads for each Indigenous worker in the region with an Information Systems qualification.</p>
<p>On the flip side, there were very few employers targeting Indigenous workers with a building qualification. For example, in Townsville there was one Indigenous-focused job ad for the 128 Indigenous workers with a qualification in building. </p>
<p>By understanding the career pathways of Indigenous peoples and tailoring their workforce strategies to align with the locations and qualifications held by Indigenous peoples, employers can do more to ensure that they are successful in their efforts to attract Indigenous workers. </p>
<h2>Education is key</h2>
<p>Remote work arrangements can help mitigate the geographic mismatch between current demand for and supply of Indigenous talent. But, ultimately, improving job opportunities for Indigenous Australians requires a whole-of-ecosystem approach involving Indigenous communities, educators, employers and policy makers.</p>
<p>The visible growth in employers’ efforts to recruit Indigenous workers represents positive change. The Indigenous Jobs Map reveals how these efforts can be directed more effectively so they translate into employment outcomes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-owned-businesses-are-key-to-closing-the-employment-gap-208579">Indigenous-owned businesses are key to closing the employment gap</a>
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<p>The data also confirms education is the key pathway to highly skilled and well-paid employment. A Bachelor’s degree is most highly sought after, being required in 22.5% of Indigenous focused job ads. Effort needs to be directed towards improving the number of Indigenous people gaining higher educational qualifications. </p>
<p>By engaging Indigenous students in schools, employers can help students and carers understand how their unique knowledge and approach add value in the workplace. Connecting directly and early with Indigenous communities will improve the pipeline of Indigenous talent and ultimately, achieve a more inclusive labour market.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212440/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claire Mason works for the CSIRO. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haohui Chen works for CSIRO. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louisa Warren does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More Australian employers are keen to employ Indigenous workers, but a large-scale analysis of job adverts shows a mismatch between demand for and supply of Indigenous talent.Claire Mason, Principal Research Scientist, CSIROHaohui Chen, Senior Research Scientist, Data61Louisa Warren, Executive Manager, Indigenous Engagement, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2110652023-08-16T02:21:41Z2023-08-16T02:21:41ZYoung people with disability have poorer mental health when they are unemployed – funding should tackle job barriers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542264/original/file-20230811-27-6gwkbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C24%2C8206%2C5462&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-down-syndrome-working-industrial-2144837091">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian governments spend a lot of money supporting young people with disability to find a job. But the success of these programs has been modest.</p>
<p>Employment rates for young people with disability have been persistently low for the past two decades, despite <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook47p/DisabilityWork">considerable investment</a> in employment services and programs. While 80% of those Australian adults without disability are in jobs, only 48% of those with disability were in work in the most recent <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/disability/people-with-disability-in-australia/contents/employment">Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers</a>. </p>
<p>Young adults with disability are therefore also much less likely to be in jobs than their peers without disability. Our <a href="https://oem.bmj.com/content/early/2023/07/18/oemed-2023-108853">recently published research</a> found young people with disability who do have jobs have better mental health.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, current efforts to boost workforce participation are focused solely on potential employees with disability, not the environments that could employ and support them.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/working-from-home-has-worked-for-people-with-disability-the-back-to-the-office-push-could-wind-back-gains-209870">Working from home has worked for people with disability. The back-to-the-office push could wind back gains</a>
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<h2>Young people with disability have poorer mental health to start with</h2>
<p>The mental health of young people with disability is considerably worse than their peers without disability and <a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-2375817/v1">this gap</a> looks to be widening. </p>
<p>We know <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26773063/">having a job</a> is good for a person’s mental health and that unemployment leads to poorer mental health. Our <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33303687/">previous research</a> showed being unemployed has a bigger negative effect on the mental health of young people with disability than young people without disability. </p>
<p>This may <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25053615/">be due to factors</a> like loss of work identity and financial stress which can affect all unemployed people. However, these and other impacts may be worse for people with disability due to the greater economic and social disadvantage they experience, and the greater barriers they face in gaining work.</p>
<p>Our study used <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/about-the-department/longitudinal-studies/living-in-australia-hilda-household-income-and-labour-dynamics-in-australia-overview">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey</a> data from 2016 to 2019 and included 3,435 young adults aged 20 to 35. The 377 young adults with disability in our sample had poorer mental health than young adults who didn’t report a disability. They were also less likely to be employed.</p>
<p>We checked to see how much of the poorer mental health experienced by young adults with disability could be improved if they had the same employment rate as their peers without disability. To do this, we used a method called “<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2022.886722/full">causal mediation analysis</a>” which allowed us to estimate how much having a disability affects the mental health of young adults.</p>
<p>We then took this estimate and split it into two parts: the effect on mental health due to unemployment, and the effect on mental health not due to unemployment.</p>
<p>We found nearly 20% of the poorer mental health reported by young adults with disability could be alleviated by helping those who want to work into jobs.</p>
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<h2>Employment programs may not be hitting the mark</h2>
<p>The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) promised to improve employment rates for young participants. The School Leaver Employment Supports program is the main way NDIS participants are supported to move out of school and into work. However, data in the <a href="https://www.ndis.gov.au/providers/working-provider/school-leaver-employment-supports">most recent report shows</a> only 29% of people in the program entered mainstream employment, and over half were unemployed when they left the program.</p>
<p>Other programs, like <a href="https://www.jobaccess.gov.au/people-with-disability/available-support/1631">Disability Employment Services</a> and <a href="https://www.workforceaustralia.gov.au/">Workforce Australia</a>, provide support to people with disability to find and keep a job. Outside of school leaver supports, the NDIS can provide funding to help participants find and keep a job.</p>
<p>Our research suggests supporting more young people with disability into employment could start to close the gaps in mental health between them and those without disability. But the focus shouldn’t be just on the job seeker. </p>
<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>NDIS Minister Bill Shorten has targeted the school leaver supports program for reform as part of concerns around the financial sustainability of the NDIS, including changing the way the School Leaver Employment Supports program is <a href="https://ministers.dss.gov.au/media-releases/11011">funded</a>. This <a href="https://www.unsw.adfa.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/1125099877%20-%20School%20of%20Business%20Blended%20Report_V2.pdf">would mean</a> incentivising providers to achieve good employment outcomes for young people with disability, instead of just providing services.</p>
<p>Currently, services focus on vocational training with the aim of improving the jobseeker’s capability and capacity to work. This can include <a href="https://www.workforceaustralia.gov.au/individuals/training/activities/">education and training</a>. But this is often outside a workplace setting rather than <a href="https://library.bsl.org.au/bsljspui/bitstream/1/12848/2/Thies_etal_10_strategies_improving_disability_employment_outcomes_Dec2021.pdf">“on the job” training</a>, which may be more effective.</p>
<p>Further, focusing only on the job seeker <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34770000/">ignores the other barriers</a> people with disability experience, like discrimination and systemic disadvantage. When looking for work, people with disability encounter job advertisements which use ableist language and <a href="https://www.iwh.on.ca/sites/iwh/files/iwh/reports/iwh_report_knowledge_gaps_about_skills_pwds_2023.pdf">application software</a> that may screen out candidates who have gaps in their employment record. Inaccessible buildings may make it difficult for people with physical or sensory disability to participate in job interviews.</p>
<p>On the job, people with disability may face <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spol.12523">negative attitudes</a>, employers who do not know how to provide reasonable adjustments and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344600237_Access_to_Flexible_Work_Arrangements_for_People_With_Disabilities_An_Australian_Study#fullTextFileContent">lack of flexible work arrangements</a>. For some people with invisible disability, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10202847/">like psychosocial disability</a>, talking to their employer may be especially difficult due to the fear of stigma and discrimination.</p>
<p>Meaningful government action is needed to address the <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/disability-rights/publications/willing-work-national-inquiry-employment-discrimination">discrimination people with disability experience</a> when they look for jobs and in the workplace. </p>
<p>Additional <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32310208/">barriers to employment</a>, like accessible transportation to get to and from work, or safe and stable housing, also impact the employment outcomes of young people with disability. </p>
<p>Connections between government services and more training for workers could ensure job seekers with disability get help to address these life areas. Employers also need clear guidance and support to hire, accommodate, and build the careers of employees with disability.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-lagging-when-it-comes-to-employing-people-with-disability-quotas-for-disability-services-could-be-a-start-199405">Australia is lagging when it comes to employing people with disability – quotas for disability services could be a start</a>
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<h2>Young adults want to work</h2>
<p>We know young adults with disability <a href="https://melbourne.figshare.com/articles/report/_I_think_all_disabled_people_should_have_a_job_regardless_It_needs_to_happen_because_we_are_still_people_Labour_market_experiences_of_young_people_with_intellectual_and_or_psychosocial_disabilities_prior_and_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic_/21714716">want to work</a> and to have the same opportunities as everyone else. </p>
<p>Helping young people with disability into suitable jobs that match their strengths, needs and goals is critical to supporting their mental health. But until we address these bigger issues that stop young people from getting work, young adults with disability will continue to have lower employment rates and poorer mental health that puts them at risk of poorer quality of life. Failing to address this issue also adds to welfare and health system expenses.</p>
<p>We owe it to young people with disability and their mental health to make job opportunities a reality.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/on-my-worst-day-how-the-ndis-fosters-a-deficit-mindset-and-why-that-should-change-208846">'On my worst day ...' How the NDIS fosters a deficit mindset and why that should change</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marissa Shields received funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship provided by the Australian Commonwealth Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Kavanagh receives funding from the Australian Research Council, NHMRC, MRFF, and Victorian and Commonwealth governments. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tania King receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DE200100607 & LP180100035).</span></em></p>Research shows nearly 20% of the poorer mental health reported by young adults with disability could be alleviated by helping those who want to work into jobs.Marissa Shields, Research fellow, The University of MelbourneAnne Kavanagh, Professor of Disability and Health, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneTania King, Associate professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112772023-08-13T02:53:30Z2023-08-13T02:53:30ZWe can and should keep unemployment below 4%, say top economists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542107/original/file-20230810-27-i6hwim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C209%2C1819%2C764&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s leading economists believe Australia can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.75% – much lower than the latest Reserve Bank estimate of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-dg-2023-06-20.html">4.25%</a> and the Treasury’s latest estimate of <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-05/drkennedy-abeaddress-230518.pdf">4.5%</a>. </p>
<p>This finding, in an Economic Society of Australia poll of 51 leading economists selected by their peers, comes ahead of next month’s release of a government <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/employment-whitepaper/tor">employment white paper</a>, and an expected direction from Treasurer Jim Chalmers that the Reserve Bank <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-set-its-first-full-employment-target-and-it-will-define-peoples-lives-for-decades-210783">quantify</a> its official employment target.</p>
<p>Asked what unemployment rate was most consistent with “full employment” under present policy settings, the 46 respondents who were prepared to pick a number or range picked an average rate of 3.75%.</p>
<p>The median (middle) response was higher, but still below official estimates – an unemployment rate of 4%.</p>
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<p>Significantly, only two of the economists surveyed picked an unemployment rate of 5% or higher, which is where Australia’s unemployment rate has been for most of the past five decades.</p>
<p>The 3.75% average implies either that the Reserve Bank and government have lacked ambition on employment for much of the past half-century, or that the sustainable unemployment rate has fallen.</p>
<p>Australia’s unemployment rate dived to 3.5% in mid-2022 and has remained close to that long-term low since.</p>
<p>The survey result suggests the government can lock in the present historic low and need not – and should not – allow unemployment to climb too far from its present rate.</p>
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<p>Many of the experts surveyed questioned the idea of a “magic number” or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) used by the Treasury and the Reserve Bank as a guide to how low unemployment can go without feeding inflation.</p>
<p>Former OECD official Adrian Blundell-Wignall said the concept was not helpful “even in the short run, and certainly not the long run” because NAIRU kept changing depending on what else was going on in the domestic and global economy.</p>
<p>Any rate of unemployment would have a different implication for inflation depending on what the government was doing with tax and spending policy.</p>
<p>Geopolitical events and climate change have probably pushed up the rate of inflation to be expected from any given domestic unemployment rate.</p>
<h2>3.5% unemployment, yet falling inflation</h2>
<p>Craig Emerson, a former minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, said NAIRU was best described as the lowest unemployment rate consistent with inflation not taking off. Given Australia’s inflation rate is now coming <a href="https://theconversation.com/underlying-inflation-has-slipped-below-6-but-is-the-slide-enough-to-stop-the-rba-pushing-up-rates-further-209852">down</a>, NAIRU is clearly below the present unemployment rate of 3.5%, he argued.</p>
<p>The University of Queensland’s John Quiggin said Australia can be considered to have full employment when the number of job vacancies matches the number of unemployed people. This is the case at present, suggesting “full employment” means an unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p>
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<p>Alison Preston from the University of Western Australia said industrial relations changes have given workers much less power to obtain higher wages than before, suggesting the “non-inflation accelerating rate of unemployment” was either lower than before or an irrelevant concept.</p>
<p>Curtin University’s Harry Bloch says there will always be a mismatch between the jobs on offer and the skills available – an academic can’t do the work of a plumber, or vice versa, for instance. But even so, he says it ought to be possible to get unemployment down to the 2% achieved repeatedly during the 1950s and 1960s.</p>
<p>Consulting economist Rana Roy says in normal times “full employment” probably meant an unemployment rate near 1%, but the business cycle meant there would always be brief – “and I stress brief” – periods when governments might have to accept an unemployment rate of nearer 2%. </p>
<h2>Fix education, job-matching and childcare</h2>
<p>Asked to select the three measures from a list of 11 that would do the most to bring down the sustainable rate of unemployment, the 51 experts overwhelmingly backed improving the quality of school education (55%), followed by improving employment services (39%) and cutting out-of-pocket childcare costs (39%).</p>
<p>There was also strong support for relaxing industrial relations to give employers greater flexibility (33%) and winding back taxes and regulations facing businesses (24%) as well as boosting enrolments in tertiary education (27%).</p>
<p>There was very little support for cutting immigration or the JobSeeker payment.</p>
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<p>Labour market specialist Sue Richardson said a high-quality job-matching service would both reduce unemployment and boost productivity because Australians would be matched to jobs for which they were best suited. </p>
<p>The unemployed who would benefit the most would be those further down the queue who were the least successful in finding jobs.</p>
<p>Industry economist Julie Toth said digital technologies and working from home were already making it easier to match Australians with jobs across a range of industries, and it was important to preserve these recent gains.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-set-its-first-full-employment-target-and-it-will-define-peoples-lives-for-decades-210783">Australia is about to set its first full employment target – and it will define people's lives for decades</a>
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<p>One of the panellists, Peter Tulip from the Centre for Independent Studies, rejected all the options offered for lowering the achievable unemployment rate, and said the only one that might have some effect was restraint when increasing minimum wages.</p>
<p>Another, Brian Dollery from the University of New England, said much of Australia’s unemployment had been generated by unemployment benefits that were too high.</p>
<p>Together, the results of the survey call for the government and the Reserve Bank to be ambitious about unemployment, and not to accept a rate above 4%.</p>
<p>The government’s employment <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/employment-whitepaper/tor">white paper</a> is due by the end of September.</p>
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<p><em>Individual responses. Click to open:</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Treasury and RBA believe Australia’s sustainable rate of unemployment is above 4%, but Australia’s leading economists think 3.75% is possible long-term, and have ideas about how to achieve it.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.