tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/global-perspectives-45141/articlesGlobal perspectives – La Conversation2020-07-08T10:30:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1390562020-07-08T10:30:17Z2020-07-08T10:30:17ZBats are hosts to a range of viruses but don’t get sick – why?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339875/original/file-20200604-67387-qdp9ck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C6112%2C4092&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fruit bats.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fruit-bat-hanging-on-tree-forest-1277633683">nutsiam/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bats harbour many diverse viruses, including coronaviruses. Indeed, Sars, Mers and COVID-19 – which are all caused by coronaviruses – are thought to have emerged from bats. These diseases can be deadly to humans, yet bats seem to be unaffected by them. </p>
<p>Like all animal species, bats possess their own range of pathogens – viral, bacterial and fungal. Organisms are part of an interconnected system of other living things that evolved to exploit and be exploited in turn. Bats have therefore evolved with a set of viruses that infect them and continuously circulate through the bat population.</p>
<p>SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 is a member of a family of viruses called the coronaviridae (coronaviruses). Coronaviruses, or “CoVs”, infect a variety of animals, with human infections ranging from HCoV-229E, which causes some cases of the common cold, to MERS-CoV, which is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33221-0/fulltext">fatal in up to 30% of cases</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-three-misconceptions-about-how-animals-transmit-diseases-debunked-134485">Coronavirus: three misconceptions about how animals transmit diseases debunked</a>
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<p>Since the original SARS-CoV outbreak in 2002, coronaviruses closely related to SARS-CoV have been discovered in bats <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409556/">from countries all over the world</a>. Scientists in China studying Chinese horseshoe bats in 2013, identified several SARS-like CoVs that use the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5287300/">same ACE2 receptor</a> to bind to cells as the current SARS-CoV-2. These viruses were similar enough to SARS-CoV that they were termed SARS-like coronaviruses. New viruses have been added to this group since then. So there is a significant diversity of coronaviruses circulating in bats, which may increase the probability that one of these viruses has the potential to become a zoonotic infection – in other words, can jump to humans. </p>
<p>Bats are excellent hosts for viruses in general and coronaviruses as a group have been particularly successful at infecting and diversifying within bats. The highly social nature of many bat species leads to the constant exchange of viral pathogens between bats – and this may act to drive viral diversification within a population. </p>
<h2>Unique among mammals</h2>
<p>With so many potentially dangerous viruses circulating among them, why do the bats themselves not die off from these constant infections? Clearly, bats can maintain a balance between control of a viral infection and the excessive inflammatory response that can kill other hosts. Perhaps the answer lies in their unique feature among mammals – flight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bat-flu-can-spread-to-humans-should-we-be-worried-112325">Bat flu can spread to humans: should we be worried?</a>
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<p>The physiological requirements of flight have affected the bat immune system. Flight causes bats to have elevated metabolic functions and raises their core body temperature about 38°C. This means that bats are often in a state that, for humans, would be considered a fever. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4012789/">Researchers in the UK have suggested</a> that this may be a mechanism to help bats survive viral infections. </p>
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<span class="caption">Bats are the only mammal that can fly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pipistrelle-bat-pipistrellus-flying-on-ceiling-1051516271">Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Viral infections can harm the host, in part, by causing an out-of-control inflammation response called a “cytokine storm”, which can be a fatal complication in several respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. If bats adaptation to flight also allows them to tolerate high body temperatures better, it means they can tolerate at least some potential damaging effects of the inflammation response better than other mammals. </p>
<p>In addition to traits that allow bats to tolerate a high body temperature, bats may also have other adaptations that mark their immune system as unusual or unique among mammals. </p>
<h2>A sting in the tale</h2>
<p>In 2018, scientists in China and Singapore <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(18)30041-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS1931312818300416%3Fshowall%3Dtrue">identified a mutation in a gene</a> that helps to control the antiviral response in bats during a viral infection. The mutation is in a gene called the stimulator of interferon genes (STING), which is common to all mammals and has a crucial role in triggering the inflammation response during a viral infection. </p>
<p>The mutation identified in bats has been shown to reduce the production of specific inflammation-causing proteins, called interferons, during a viral infection. </p>
<p>It may seem counter-intuitive that reduced production of an antiviral component could be better for the host, but it appears that damping down the inflammation response may allow the bats to avoid the damage caused an excessive immune response – the previously mentioned cytokine storm. </p>
<p>Adaptation to flight and mutation in STING both serve to control and tolerate inflammation. But these changes are probably only part of how bats have adapted to persistent viral infections in a way that other species have not.</p>
<p>Although we have known for a long time that bats are a potential source of novel viruses, research into bat immunity remains at the cutting edge of science, and new research is emerging all the time. It is likely that further discoveries will be made and that each new piece of data will enhance our understanding of bats, viruses and provide insights into our own immune systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Grehan is affiliated with the University of Leeds as a postdoctoral researcher. </span></em></p>Do bats hold the secret to defeating coronaviruses?Keith Grehan, Postdoctoral Researcher, Molecular Biology, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1404532020-06-14T08:13:11Z2020-06-14T08:13:11ZSo you think investing in fever screening can curb the spread of COVID-19? Think again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341201/original/file-20200611-80750-mdacqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A security guard checks the body temperature of a motorcyclist as a preventive measure. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Risa Krisadhi/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As lockdowns are lifted, procedures are being put in place to reduce the spread of <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/covid-19">COVID-19</a>. Along with physical distancing, hand sanitisation and <a href="https://theconversation.com/african-countries-are-moving-to-make-masks-mandatory-key-questions-answered-137516">wearing of masks</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/technology/coronavirus-worker-testing-privacy.html">fever screening</a> is increasingly being set up as a requirement before entry is allowed into hospitals, shops, workplaces and schools. But there are physiological and clinical reasons why fever screening simply won’t work. </p>
<p>Andrea Fuller and Duncan Mitchell explain why fever screening is unlikely to reduce the spread of the virus. Their arguments are based on an understanding of the physiology of fever, body temperature measurement, and fever prevalence in people who transmit COVID-19. </p>
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<h2>What happens to your body when you have a fever?</h2>
<p>Fever is a temporary elevation of body core temperature. It is part of a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0889159115004079?casa_token=7_0RxEml1XkAAAAA:BLgBVOlXpp6vZuDa5dwuIpbpsdNhIS0YbRX8Q7nI_0-MMw1GZzVz_WYtNCRq4Ue1qAEzwTIx7Mw">defensive response</a> to infection by a virus. </p>
<p>When you develop a fever, you feel cold, heat generation in your body increases (achieved by shivering) and heat loss decreases (achieved by seeking warmth, covering up and reducing the flow of warm blood to the skin). When a fever breaks, either naturally or because you have taken an antipyretic like paracetamol, you feel warm. Your reactions include increasing the flow of warm blood to the skin and sweating, which helps to bring the body’s core temperature back to normal.</p>
<h2>What are the limitations to infrared thermometers or thermal cameras detecting fevers?</h2>
<p>Detecting fever requires measuring body core temperature. To do that accurately, you need to put a thermometer into the body core. Temperature in the rectum and the mouth get close to body core temperature. </p>
<p>Needing to measure body core temperature raises the first problem with fever screening. Thermal cameras and infrared thermometers measure heat radiating from a surface – in other words surface temperature. They don’t measure body core temperature. </p>
<p>Measuring surface temperature has contributed usefully to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2907.2007.00111.x">healthcare and to biology</a>. For example, infrared cameras have shown whether <a href="https://www.plasticsurgery.theclinics.com/article/S0094-1298(11)00022-8/abstract">skin grafts are receiving blood</a>. On the biology front they have shown that toucans dump body heat <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/325/5939/468?casa_token=8sYjYaq1yM8AAAAA:qxvgTZ4nHtC8xT3kpf8OxWTmeGxRQqsPy2O6WGpdj0QyYm2g-rVUVkPQ0E2Hao025n_5C7mE_HEhf-Y">through their bills</a>. </p>
<p>But the forehead skin or inner eye temperatures that infrared thermometers or thermal cameras usually measure in fever screening are not body core temperatures. </p>
<p>Human surface temperature is heavily <a href="http://www.uhlen.at/thermology-international/archive/Fever%20screening%20and%20infrared%20...pdf">influenced by environmental conditions</a>. In cool environments, surface temperatures can be much lower than body core temperature. And doing <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03091900600711381">exercise</a>, or being exposed to the sun, can raise the temperature on our foreheads above body core temperature. Thermal cameras screen for high skin temperature. They can and do find high face temperatures that have nothing to do with infections. Those <a href="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080;jsessionid=tf38nvbo2h6-at8kDrFqpbG6.i-0b3d9850f4681504f-ecdclive">“false positives”</a> waste time and money in unnecessary follow-up.</p>
<p>Another problem is that skin temperature does not rise during the developing phase of a fever. It falls, because warm blood is kept away from the skin. So your skin temperature changes in the opposite direction to your body core temperature. </p>
<p>Thermal cameras would declare you safe, because your skin temperature is low, but you could be in the most infectious phase of the fever. No surface temperature is a reliable indicator of fever.</p>
<h2>Could better fever screening detect COVID-19?</h2>
<p>Even if infrared thermometers could detect fever reliably, they could not detect COVID-19 reliably. Nor could any other thermometer. Patients with COVID-19 are not guaranteed to have a fever. </p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected">research</a> indicates that many people who test positive for COVID-19, and especially children, never have any detectable sign of illness, including fever. </p>
<p>Even people who later do show symptoms will not have a fever during COVID-19’s <a href="https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-0504">incubation phase</a>, which can last nearly two weeks. During this period, when they are asymptomatic, they <a href="https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-58">can spread the virus</a>. The finding that infected people without symptoms shed virus is the <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMe2009758">Achilles’ heel of controlling the current pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>To add to the problem, not all patients with symptoms will have a fever, at least on the basis of once-off measurement. Only <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184">31% of patients</a> presenting at New York State hospitals with COVID-19 had fevers. </p>
<p>So, in addition to not measuring body core temperature well, infrared thermometers are being used to find a high temperature that many people exposed to COVID-19 won’t have.</p>
<h2>Has fever screening ever helped to prevent the spread of viruses?</h2>
<p>Thermal cameras were introduced at airports at the outbreak of the 2002/3 <a href="https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</a> (SARS) pandemic. They were widespread in airports during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. But for medical and technological reasons they have <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/23/4638">failed to prevent</a> the import of any virus causing respiratory disease. They have failed even in combination with other interventions like follow-up contact and health declaration questionnaires. For example, 930 people who presented as potentially infected candidates were picked out by thermal screening from over 9 million passengers entering Japan in 2009/2010. But <a href="https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-11-111">not one case of H1N1 influenza was diagnosed</a>. </p>
<p>The data from Ebola shows the same pattern. Not one case of Ebola virus infection was picked up in 166,242 airport passengers screened when entering and leaving Sierra Leone in the 2014/2016 <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6930773/">outbreak</a>. </p>
<p>In the case of COVID-19, CNN has reported that <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-airport-temperature-checks/index.html">no cases were detected</a> among the more than 30,000 passengers screened with thermal cameras at US airports by mid-February 2020 .</p>
<p>Some scientists have been forthright about the dubious value of fever screening, arguing that border screening for infectious diseases <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4313627/">should not be continued</a>. </p>
<h2>Is there any place for fever screening?</h2>
<p>Perhaps, there may be benefits. </p>
<p>Some people with viral infections who know they are sick attempt to conceal their illness. Travellers wanting to fly home are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893904001267?via%3Dihub">prone to do so</a>. Others take antipyretic drugs, hoping to avoid triggering thermal cameras. </p>
<p>Though there still is no scientific evidence, <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-airport-screening-wont-stop-spread-coronavirus">researchers have suggested</a> that the prospect of being caught by fever screening is a deterrent to such dishonesty. </p>
<p>But we do not believe that the potential benefit outweighs the negatives. Apart from fever screening being unreliable, infrared thermometry poses a risk to thermometer operators who are required to come up close to potentially infected persons. Successfully passing a fever screen can create a false sense of security. And the thermal cameras used for mass screening are costly. So are the personnel required for any fever screening.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Fuller receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan Mitchell is Adjunct Professor in the School of Human Sciences, University of Western Australia. In the past, he has received funding from the South African Medical Research Council and the South African National Research Foundation, for biomedical research, and has carried out contract research for Adcock Ingram Pharmaceuticals. </span></em></p>Detecting fever requires measuring core body temperature. Screening measures the body’s surface temperature.Andrea Fuller, Professor, School of Physiology; Director, Brain Function Research Group, University of the WitwatersrandDuncan Mitchell, Honorary Professorial Research Fellow, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1391782020-05-23T11:39:50Z2020-05-23T11:39:50ZChina’s new coronavirus recovery strategy explained<p>When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered his <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020lh/2020-05/22/c_1126018545.htm?baike">annual report</a> to China’s national legislature on May 22, his focus was firmly on COVID-19. His 55-minute speech to the gathering of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) put the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the heart of the government’s strategy for the year ahead. The focus will be on protecting employment, livelihoods, businesses and supply chains from collapse. </p>
<p>While media coverage of the NPC was dominated by China’s plan to enact <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52762291">new security powers in Hong Kong</a>, the meeting also reveals how cautious China is about its coronavirus recovery. </p>
<p>Western European countries are pursuing a return to normal, but Li signalled that in the coming year, the plan for China is a “normalisation of prevention and control”. Although Li did not set out in detail what control would mean, it currently involves measures that go beyond just <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html">track and tracing</a> to <a href="http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2020-05/08/content_5509896.htm">widespread</a> temperature controls and social distancing measures. In his opening passage, he warned: “The pandemic is not over.” </p>
<p>The speech, known as the government work report (政府工作报告, zhengfu gongzuo baogao), stressed that continued vigilance against the coronavirus will be a core thread determining everything from macro-level strategy down to micro-level policy for the foreseeable future in China. This may reflect the fact that China has recently experienced new localised outbreaks of the virus – most notably in its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/china-puts-city-of-shulan-under-wuhan-style-lockdown-after-fresh-covid-19-cases">north-eastern provinces</a>.</p>
<h2>Message for millions</h2>
<p>The government work report is delivered every year on behalf of the executive branch of government to parliament. Its deliberation by the NPC is mainly a formality. </p>
<p>Delayed for over two months due to the pandemic, anticipation of 2020’s report was high, with audiences waiting to hear how the Chinese government would move forward. Li made clear that all efforts toward socioeconomic development must be planned in coordination with pandemic prevention and control. In other words, preventing and controlling coronavirus will go hand in hand with planning, decision-making and implementation of government policy over the coming year. </p>
<p>Although some international media <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/world/asia/china-coronavirus-national-peoples-congress.html">had predicted</a> Li would claim victory over the virus, he was in fact only cautiously positive. He stressed the challenges ahead and noted that successes so far had come “at great cost”. His speech was unembellished, his tone solemn and matter-of-fact. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/socialpolitical/research/sccr/research/covid-19understandingchinesegovernmentcontainmentmeasuresandtheirsocietalimpacts/chinasdelayed2020twosessionswhattheycantellusaboutitscurrentcovid-19policy/#">research</a> shows that in fact this was to be expected: the government work report is aimed at multiple audiences, but its key role is to signal to government departments and officials what their work should focus on in the coming year. It must therefore adopt a measured tone.</p>
<p>Li’s speech was also shorter and very different in structure from his reports in previous years. In Chinese government reports, format and structure are used to signal priorities and principles. This time the speech was almost halved in length – 20 pages compared to 35 in 2019 – and structured differently to the standard format of the last decade. </p>
<p>The atypical length reflected the need to prioritise efficiency, both in the context of the continued presence of the virus – where all interactions, even the meeting he was speaking at, still pose a risk – and in the tough job of getting the economy going. The structure of the speech reflected the government’s new development strategy. Dropping concrete targets for <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-opening/china-drops-gdp-goal-as-parliament-opens-virus-slams-economy-idUKKBN22Y05K">GDP for the first time</a> since 1990, Li left room for flexibility in the face of continued COVID-19 uncertainty. The speech also allowed local governments space to pursue policies to mitigate the social effects of the pandemic rather than focus purely on economic recovery. </p>
<h2>Six Protections Policy</h2>
<p>Li’s strategy for mitigating the damaging effects of the epidemic for society and the economy was summed up in the short slogan, the “Six Protections”. These six protections are: job security, people’s livelihoods, businesses, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains, and the functioning of the lower levels of the Chinese government’s five-level hierarchy. </p>
<p>This slogan forms the core of the Chinese government strategy, and is integrated into the national leadership’s <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2020-04/20/c_1125879422.htm">recent goals</a> of ensuring stability in employment, finance, foreign trade, investment, and market expectations. </p>
<p>Implementing the strategy will involve the national government both introducing new policies and strengthening existing ones. This includes allowing a ¥1 trillion (£115 billion) rise in the fiscal deficit and earmarking ¥1 trillion of special governments bonds for the as yet defined purpose of “COVID-19 control”. All this will to be transferred to local governments so that they can support employment, basic needs, and businesses.</p>
<p>Overall, the key message from the Chinese government in its annual work report is that rather than returning the economy and society to normal, or relaxing restrictions (as many European countries are trying to do), for the foreseeable future it is putting prevention and control of the epidemic front and centre.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Duckett received funding from UKRI Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research for the research underpinning this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Snape receives funding from the British Academy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hua Wang receives funding from UKRI Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research for the research underpinning this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yingru Li receives funding from UKRI Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research for the research underpinning this article. </span></em></p>When China’s Premier Li Keqiang delivered the annual government work report on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, COVID-19 was at the heart of it.Jane Duckett, Professor and Edward Caird Chair of Politics, University of GlasgowHolly Snape, British Academy Fellow, University of GlasgowHua Wang, Researcher in the Scottish Centre for China Research, University of Glasgow, University of GlasgowYingru Li, Lecturer in Financial Accounting, Tax and Audit, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1390102020-05-21T14:53:34Z2020-05-21T14:53:34ZRwandans will want Félicien Kabuga tried at home. Why this won’t happen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336328/original/file-20200520-152302-w79jyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A red marks the face of Felicien Kabuga, one of the last key suspects in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, on a wanted poster at the Genocide Fugitive Tracking Unit office in Kigali, Rwanda.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by SIMON WOHLFAHRT/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The man accused of <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/financier-rwandan-genocide-will-finally-face-justice-court">supplying</a> the funds to import the primary tools of the genocide – machetes – ahead of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-rwanda-kabuga/rwandan-genocide-fugitive-kabuga-due-before-french-court-idUSKBN22V1FY">been captured</a> in France. Félicien Kabuga is alleged to have been the main financier of Hutu extremists in the 1994 mass killings against the Tutsi in Rwanda.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506">An estimated</a> one million Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed within a 100 day period. </p>
<p>Prior to the genocide, Kabuga <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/rwanda/News/The-humble-social-man-who-grew-to-be-rich-and-influential-/1433218-1459342-91ulchz/index.html">was a</a> well-known successful businessman within Rwanda. Under the regime of President Juvénal Habyarimana, which ran from 1973 to 1994, he held significant political power. </p>
<p>When the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF), backed by Uganda’s army, advanced to take control of the country, Kabuga fled. As did other members of the genocide government. </p>
<p>In 1997, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda – an international court established by the UN in 1994 to judge people responsible for the genocide – <a href="https://www.irmct.org/sites/default/files/cases/public-information/cis-kabuga-en.pdf">indicted</a> Kabuga for his role. </p>
<p>The tribunal, which was located in Arusha, Tanzania, was dissolved in 2015. Its work was taken over by the United Nations <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN22V0VI-OZATP">International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals</a>. It was set up to perform the remaining functions of both the Rwanda tribunal and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.</p>
<p>Kabuga, who is 84, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200520-rwandan-genocide-suspect-kabuga-appears-before-french-court">appeared</a> before a French court this week. It will make the decision on whether to hand him over to the tribunal, which is based in The Hague, Netherlands and Arusha. Kabuga has asked to be tried in a French court.</p>
<p>The International Criminal Court was set up to hear cases of crimes against humanity, genocide, and aggression crimes. The exceptions are cases related to Rwanda and Yugoslavia, which go to the <a href="https://www.irmct.org/en/about">International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals</a>. It is the primary judicial agency responsible for cases against former genocide perpetrators in both countries. </p>
<p>The job of both the International Criminal Court and the criminal tribunal is to promote international justice. This means cases are decided and orchestrated by international judges, lawyers and institutions. The courts also enforce decisions. The rationale is that they promote universal concepts of justice over local justice.</p>
<p>But Rwandans are sceptical of the tribunal, just as they were of its predecessor. Through <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=lstwV3EAAAAJ&hl=en">my work</a> in Rwanda I found that many Rwandans don’t trust the international community’s intentions for justice. This has been fuelled by the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35070220">ineffectiveness</a> of delivering justice and reconciliation for those affected by the genocide. </p>
<p>Genocide survivors would, therefore, <a href="https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/genocide-survivors-want-kabuga-tried-rwanda">ideally want Kabuga to be prosecuted in Rwanda</a>. But this won’t be possible – for legal and for political reasons. On the legal front, Rwanda’s National Public Prosecution Authority <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52696815">has</a> already publicly stated its commitment to helping the tribunal. </p>
<p>On the political front, the Rwandan government needs to balance domestic apprehension with diplomatic relations. Turning its back on the tribunal could stir up a hornet’s nest and hurt fragile relationships with countries, like France.</p>
<h2>Scepticism</h2>
<p>From my experience working in Rwanda, Rwandans perceive international-based justice as aiding the conscience of the international community, which failed to intervene before or during the genocide. Many Rwandans believe they’re trying to remove this guilt by promoting justice for international audiences rather than for victims. </p>
<p>This is bolstered by the fact that during the 20-year existence of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, it <a href="https://unictr.irmct.org/en/tribunal">prosecuted</a> 93 people and convicted only 61. By comparison Rwanda’s local <a href="https://www.africaresearchinstitute.org/newsite/publications/how-rwanda-judged-its-genocide-new/"><em>gacaca</em></a> courts, which operated between 2001 and 2012
and processed crimes committed during the genocide, would give the accused a chance to confess and try to reconcile with those they affected or defend their innocence. Those who admitted their crimes often received fines and community service while those who pleaded innocence were found guilty were given jail sentences. An estimated <a href="http://users.soc.umn.edu/%7Euggen/NysethBrehm_Uggen_Gasanabo_JCCJ_14.pdf">two million cases</a> were tried. Around 1.6 million were found guilty or confessed to their crimes. Rwandans <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/02/59162/">hail</a> the success of the courts as they fostered reconciliation and justice for Rwandan society.</p>
<p>In addition to this, the multiple <a href="https://www.justiceinfo.net/en/tribunals/ictr/41861-early-release-of-ictr-convicts-the-practice-beyond-the-outrage.html">early releases of criminals</a> convicted by the UN tribunals <a href="https://www.newtimes.co.rw/rwanda/rwanda-protests-early-release-genocide-convict-simba">introduces</a> even greater scepticism.</p>
<p>During my <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26893864?seq=1">research</a>, Rwandans often wanted to be able to see and confront those who had either killed family members or raped them. </p>
<p>They argued that having these individuals face justice in another country hindered justice. They felt the accused didn’t truly pay for their crime, whether through prison sentences, retribution or reconciliation. And those convicted in the international system received prison sentences that were often more <a href="https://www.jurist.org/commentary/2008/03/un-rwanda-prisoner-agreement-ictr/">comfortable</a> in terms of access to resources than they would have been in Rwanda.</p>
<h2>Complications</h2>
<p>Kabuga’s case is complicated. The original warrant for his arrest was issued by the now-dissolved International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. Logic would suggest that this should now simply fall under the jurisdiction of the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals. </p>
<p>As a result, Rwanda is not in a position simply to request Kabuga’s extradition. </p>
<p>There are other considerations against his extradition, even if it was possible. </p>
<p>First, there are question marks over whether Rwanda’s judicial system could give Kabuga a fair trial. <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/07/25/law-and-reality/progress-judicial-reform-rwanda">Human Rights Watch</a> and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/60000/afr470132007en.pdf">Amnesty International</a> have accused Rwanda’s judicial system of unfair practices and heavy political interference. </p>
<p>Second, France might not want to extradite him given old alliances between the French government and the old Habyarimana regime. <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/france-and-rwandas-genocide-long-wait/">Researcher Andrew Wallis</a> shows how this relationship helped to facilitate the training of the genocide killing squads, the <em>interahamwe</em>. It also <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/rwanda_france_4183jsp/">facilitated</a> the escape of genocidal leaders into Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo) and France. </p>
<p>Another consideration is that there are still Rwandans who are alleged to have been involved in the genocide who have never been brought to book and who reportedly continue to reside in France. Kabuga might be the most infamous European resident, but he’s <a href="https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/kwibuka25-uk-called-extradite-genocide-fugitives">not alone</a>. One example is <a href="https://trialinternational.org/latest-post/agathe-kanziga-habyarimana/">Agathe Habyarimana</a>, the former wife of the Rwandan President and a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/mar/02/rwanda-france">primary actor</a> during the genocide’s planning, who lives in France.</p>
<p>The unfolding of what happens next, however, rests with the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Beloff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though genocide survivors would ideally want Kabuga to be prosecuted in Rwanda, it won’t be possible, for legal or political reasons.Jonathan Beloff, Teaching Fellow, Department of Politics and International Studies, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1375042020-05-20T20:03:34Z2020-05-20T20:03:34ZHow Mumbai’s poorest neighbourhood is battling to keep coronavirus at bay<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333924/original/file-20200511-49579-1y1vmrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1109%2C0%2C3942%2C2277&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Aerial view of Shivaji Nagar.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Informal settlements are experiencing <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/04/16/are-slums-more-vulnerable-to-the-covid-19-pandemic-evidence-from-mumbai/">a greater surge in COVID-19 cases than other urban neighbourhoods</a> in Mumbai, India. Their high density, narrow streets, tight internal spaces, poor access to water and sanitation leave residents highly vulnerable to the spread of coronavirus. </p>
<p>One of Mumbai’s <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai/dumped-by-the-municipal-body/story-QD7603JFG09pUVjHzS3NkO.html">poorest and most underdeveloped</a> neighbourhoods, Shivaji Nagar, is one of three informal settlements I have been studying. More than a month before the Indian government imposed a national lockdown, Shivaji Nagar residents, supported by the NGO <a href="https://www.giveindia.org/nonprofit/apnalaya">Apnalaya</a>, adopted their own measures to counter the pandemic.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333524/original/file-20200507-49573-3x2fll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite image of Shivaji Nagar and neighbouring areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here, 600,000 people, <a href="https://apnalaya.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Situational-Analysis.pdf">11.5% of Mumbai’s informal settlement population</a>, are crowded into an area of 1.37 square kilometres next to <a href="https://thewire.in/environment/deonar-mumbai-slum-waste-dumping-ground">Asia’s largest dumping ground</a>. There is <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/thane/raising-a-stink-145-people-compete-for-one-toilet-seat-in-govandi-slums/articleshow/66685546.cms">one toilet for every 145 people</a> and <a href="https://idronline.org/ground-up-stories/building-connections/">60% of residents have to buy water</a>. There is a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/m-east-ward-records-highest-covid-19-fatality-rate/article31578172.ece">severe lack of health facilities</a>. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, residents’ health suffers. The settlement is a <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/in-tb-hotspot-m-east-ward-fear-of-more-lethal-covid-19-spread/article31334974.ece">tuberculosis hotspot</a>. Respiratory illness makes COVID-19 even more threatening for residents. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335762/original/file-20200518-83357-xrj25y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left: COVID-19 hotspots in Mumbai as of April 14 2020. Right: COVID-19 health facilities in Mumbai as of May 18 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/04/16/are-slums-more-vulnerable-to-the-covid-19-pandemic-evidence-from-mumbai/">Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai, Author provided</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By April 13, Shivaji Nagar had 86 COVID-19 cases – an increase of 30 in two days – making it one of Mumbai’s hotspots. As the virus started spreading rapidly, COVID-19 data for individual areas became hard to get. The release of cumulative data for the entire city was much less useful for understanding the growth in cases. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333955/original/file-20200511-49546-1iesjbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ward-level data was available until April 25 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The lockdown begins</h2>
<p>On March 24, the Indian government announced a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52698828">national lockdown</a>. Barricades were installed on Shivaji Nagar’s main streets to curb people’s movement. TV and radio broadcasts urged residents to stay at home, practise good hygiene and regularly sanitise shared toilets and main streets. </p>
<p>Once the first few COVID-19 cases were detected in Shivaji Nagar, the government shifted patients and their families to isolation facilities outside the settlement. Fever camps were set up in parts of the settlement to screen people with symptoms. While the lockdown allowed essential services to continue, vegetable markets were shut down as cases increased. </p>
<p>After facing a backlash for not considering the impacts on the poor, the government eventually announced a nationwide relief package. Residents could receive free food by producing their ration cards. </p>
<p>Some measures worked while others created new problems. Quarantining people outside the settlement was effective (since home quarantine was not possible), as was setting up fever camps. However, the stigma and fear of being COVID-19-positive stopped many people from coming forward. </p>
<p>The sudden lockdown and market closures left most residents without food, water and medicines. Some <a href="https://twitter.com/ApnalayaTweets/status/1258409949736112133">35% of Shivaji Nagar residents</a> didn’t have the ration cards needed to get free food. Enforcing social distancing and stopping people from venturing out of their homes, by beating them, didn’t work either. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1258409949736112133"}"></div></p>
<h2>NGO fills the gap</h2>
<p>The lack of official figures on case numbers and testing rates made it hard to track the spread of the virus in Shivaji Nagar. Volunteers working for Apnalaya kept track on the ground. </p>
<p>As early as the second week of February, before India’s borders closed, Apnalaya had decided to drastically reduce contact between the residents and outsiders. The aim was to minimise residents’ risk of contracting the virus. </p>
<p>Apnalaya enrolled 40-50 volunteers from the neighbourhood to distribute relief supplies instead of bringing in staff. It <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/caring-for-their-own-while-caring-for-others/article31561805.ece">arranged a year’s health insurance</a> for all volunteers. Elderly and pregnant women were encouraged to stay home and contact the volunteers for help with their daily needs. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1261335917186428930"}"></div></p>
<p>Even before the government announced its relief package, Apnalaya was providing food and essentials to residents. Distribution began within the containment zones, but later extended to the entire settlement. </p>
<p>Funds for these activities were raised in several ways: <a href="https://milaap.org/fundraisers/support-people-of-shivaji-nagar?utm_source=shorturl">a crowdfunding campaign</a>, an <a href="https://twitter.com/ApnalayaTweets/status/1254718748453371907">alliance between multiple organisations</a> and collaboration with the government. </p>
<p>A dashboard was used to document, plan and monitor the distribution of relief supplies. As the government’s relief scheme excluded one in three residents, Apnalaya’s door-to-door relief delivery ensured no family was left behind. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333957/original/file-20200511-49546-w9637l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Volunteers from the settlement distribute relief.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Apnalaya</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Apnalaya’s permanent staff members were now managing everything from outside. The telephone became a medium to reach families who didn’t have a TV or a radio and to monitor the situation. Staff regularly phoned residents to give advice on hygiene and how to get essentials and contact doctors for other ailments. </p>
<p>Not everyone was in their database, but this didn’t matter. The residents played their part too. </p>
<h2>Community comes together</h2>
<p>As residents, the volunteers were committed to their community even when facing extreme hardships. Relief distribution was particularly tricky in areas where drains had overflowed on streets and foundations built on garbage had slipped. Yet these volunteers reached all residents, knowing they relied on their efforts. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333961/original/file-20200511-49565-1onm7bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Narrow internal lanes in the settlement.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The community even found a temporary way to deal with the water shortage. Parts of the settlement with piped water <a href="https://idronline.org/ground-up-stories/building-connections/">shared it with neighbours</a> who previously had to buy water from private suppliers. One supplier, a resident of the settlement, now <a href="https://idronline.org/ground-up-stories/building-connections/">provided water free of charge</a>. </p>
<h2>Lessons from Shivaji Nagar</h2>
<p>Shivaji Nagar’s story offers some important lessons. While the government acted pre-emptively, it failed to consider local conditions and needs. Apnalaya filled the gaps. </p>
<p>But the NGO’s reach was limited, too, and the resident volunteers became the missing link. Acting as community leaders, they took stock of the situation on the ground and reported back to the NGO’s office. </p>
<p>Some of the strategies that have worked have been tailored to local conditions and adapted to the evolving crisis. But the shortage of health facilities and lack of data transparency pose a great challenge. </p>
<p>Mumbai’s M East Ward, which includes Shivaji Nagar, now has the highest COVID-19 death rate in Mumbai. <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/m-east-ward-records-highest-covid-19-fatality-rate/article31578172.ece">At 9.7%, it’s more than double the city’s overall rate</a>. Can Shivaji Nagar withstand the storm?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137504/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ishita Chatterjee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Long before the Indian government responded to the threat of COVID-19 with a lockdown, residents of Shivaji Nagar, with the support of a local NGO, were protecting and helping one another.Ishita Chatterjee, PhD Candidate, Informal Urbanism (InfUr-) Hub, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1388462020-05-20T12:28:10Z2020-05-20T12:28:10ZWhy easing the lockdown threatens to put workers in South Africa at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336330/original/file-20200520-152302-1qrak6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers with face masks seen at The Hat Factory in Cape Town, South Africa. But most employers don't abide by health and safety regulations.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nardus Engelbrecht/Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In South Africa demands from <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2020-05-18-business-calls-for-quick-move-to-level-2-as-a-matter-of-urgency/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Business+calls+for+quick+move+to+level+2+as+a+matter+of+urgency+%7C+Gordhan%E2%80%99s+SAA+truce+on+the+rocks+as+business+rescuers+want+to+wind+down+%7C+MARK+CUTIFANI&utm_term=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.businesslive.co.za%2Fbd%2Feconomy%2F2020-05-18-business-calls-for-quick-move-to-level-2-as-a-matter-of-urgency%2F">business</a> and <a href="https://citizen.co.za/business/2283301/cosatu-calls-for-ramaphosa-to-get-sa-to-level-3-asap-amid-sas-economic-firestorm/">trade unions</a> to relax restrictions on the economy are growing. This comes even after President Cyril Ramaphosa said that most of the country may move to <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/move-to-level-3-may-happen-before-end-of-may-says-ramaphosa-47931525">lower level restrictions</a> before the end of May. Gauteng, the powerhouse of the economy, is likely to follow in <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2020/05/19/makhura-gauteng-set-for-move-to-level-3-lockdown">June</a>.</p>
<p>For those unable to work from home, being able to return to work is likely to come as a welcome relief. People unable to work because of lockdown restrictions are overwhelming concentrated in <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-04-22-this-is-who-is-most-at-risk-of-losing-a-job-due-to-covid-19-lockdown/">low-paid jobs</a>. This includes jobs like domestic work and non-essential manufacturing. </p>
<p>But steps need to be taken before these workers can return.</p>
<p>The country’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202004/43257gon479.pdf">occupational health and safety directive</a> sets out what’s expected before a workplace can reopen. It must undertake a risk assessment and develop a written plan for how it will operate under the necessary health and safety restrictions. These measures must include appointing a COVID-19 compliance officer, ensuring social distancing in the workplace, screening and testing in workplaces with more than 500 workers. In addition, sanitisers, masks and other protective equipment must be provided. </p>
<p>Workplaces with over 500 workers must submit these plans to the Department of Employment and Labour and to their internal health and safety committee. </p>
<p>There are at least <a href="http://www.labour.gov.za/department-of-employment-and-labour-pays-out-covid-19-benefits-to-workers-(2)">1.8 million employers</a> in South Africa. It would be impossible for the department to inspect every workplace to ensure its compliance with the occupational health and safety directive. </p>
<p>This system, therefore, relies on voluntary compliance by employers. But, sadly, high levels of noncompliance with basic labour laws are a common feature of the South African labour relations landscape. This is not peculiar to the conditions of lockdown but is indicative of a wider culture of noncompliance among employers in the country. </p>
<h2>Culture of noncompliance and a lack of enforcement</h2>
<p>Data from the labour department’s inspectorate shows that just over a third of the employers it has inspected since the beginning of the lockdown <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-05-12-covid-19-workplace-compliance-is-only-60-says-labour-department/">have not been compliant</a> with occupational health and safety measures designed to protect workers. </p>
<p>Commenting on the high levels of noncompliance, the <a href="http://www.labour.gov.za/compliance-still-a-challenge-to-many-organisations-department-of-employment-and-labour">inspector general, Aggy Moiloa, said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are shocked that many organisations are still struggling to comply with the OHS Act. It should be every organisation’s habit.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But a quick look at the data for previous years shows that this level of noncompliance is normal and should not have come as a surprise.</p>
<p>Last year, the department <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/29338/">reported</a> to the employment and labour parliamentary portfolio committee that, on average, over a third (37%) of the employers inspected had not been compliant with the occupational health and safety act. Similar levels of noncompliance with basic labour law are also seen in the high percentage of employers that have <a href="https://theconversation.com/gaps-in-south-africas-relief-scheme-leave-some-workers-with-no-income-136403">failed to register their workers for the Unemployment Insurance Fund</a>. </p>
<p>But the rate of noncompliance that the department has reported is likely to be just the tip of the iceberg as only a fraction of the inspectorate has been used under the lockdown. </p>
<p>As of November 2019, the department employed just under <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/29338/">1,800 inspectors</a>. But the minister has stated that only <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/billions-already-paid-out-to-distressed-sa-employees-says-labour-department-47496132">170</a>, less than 10% of the inspectorate’s capacity, have been used for occupational health and safety inspections during lockdown. This may be because, ordinarily, inspectors have different competencies and not all inspectors may be trained in carrying out occupational health and safety inspections. </p>
<p><a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/30126/">On 1 May 2020</a>, the inspector general told the employment and labour parliamentary portfolio committee that a further 500 inspectors would be employed within a week. Even with an additional 500 inspectors, this would still only represent a third of the inspectorate’s total capacity.</p>
<p>Even if more inspectors are employed there is a need to increase the number of inspections carried out by each inspector. During the first 30 days of lockdown 2,226 inspections were conducted. This averages out to each inspector conducting 13 inspections over 30 days, about one inspection every two days. This rate of inspection seems particularly slow given that much of the economy was shut during this period. </p>
<p>Throughout this crisis, the labour department has called on employers to show “<a href="http://www.labour.gov.za/update-on-employment-and-labour-issues-arising-from-the-lockdowns">social solidarity</a>” and to do the right thing by their workers. But this seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The labour minister has had to<a href="http://www.labour.gov.za/minister-thulas-nxesi-guns-for-employers-who-are-not-passing-on-covid-relief-benefits-to-workers"> plead with employers</a> to pay money to workers that they should have received from the Unemployment Insurance Fund COVID-19 Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme. Indeed, the fact that employers seem unable to do the right thing by their employees has led the department to open up the scheme <a href="https://www.businessinsider.co.za/workers-can-claim-from-uif-2020-5">to allow workers to apply directly</a> without having to wait for their employer to apply. </p>
<p>The department’s own inspections demonstrate that a significant section of employers are not voluntarily ensuring adequate health and safety precautions in the workplace. </p>
<p>The inspector general has said that its inspections are driven by reports from employees who must be the “<a href="https://omny.fm/shows/power-update/department-of-labour-says-only-60-of-companies-are">first line of defence</a>”. But, under the current conditions of economic uncertainty and <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/397423/new-retrenchment-data-shows-the-start-of-south-africas-jobs-bloodbath/">retrenchments</a> looming, many workers will be too fearful of losing their jobs to report their employers. </p>
<h2>What needs to be done</h2>
<p>The Department of Employment and Labour needs to take a stronger and proactive role in ensuring compliance through strong enforcement. It needs to use the full extent of the inspectorate’s capacity to ensure compliance with the necessary health and safety measures is enforced. Without this, any further reopening of the economy will put workers’ lives in jeopardy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138846/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carin Runciman receives funding from the National Research Foundation. She is a management committee member of the Casual Workers Advice Office. </span></em></p>Compliance with occupational health and safety requirements is already poor and few inspections of workplaces are being done.Carin Runciman, Associate professor, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1383932020-05-20T10:18:28Z2020-05-20T10:18:28Z‘Anti-ageing’ protein shown to slow cell growth is key in longevity – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336367/original/file-20200520-152344-x54ihv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C10%2C7097%2C4871&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Without Gaf1, cells had a shorter lifespan.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/senior-man-holding-cane-630638405">sondem/ Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans are living longer than ever before. But alongside these <a href="https://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/life_tables/en/">increases in life expectancy</a> are an increase in the occurrence of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5890129/">age-related diseases</a> such as cancer and dementia.</p>
<p>But understanding the biology of ageing, and knowing the genes and proteins involved in these processes, will help us increase our “healthspan” – the period that people can live in a healthy and productive state, without age-related diseases.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068653/">recent study</a>, our team identified a novel anti-ageing protein, called Gaf1. We found that Gaf1 controls protein metabolism, a process that has been implicated in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31937935">ageing and disease</a>. We also found that without Gaf1, cells have a shorter lifespan.</p>
<h2>Ageing and diet</h2>
<p>Ageing is a complex process and depends on both genes and environmental factors, such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3425961/">diet</a>. It’s widely known that calorie-restricted diets can prolong lifespan. This holds true for a variety of organisms, including <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19539741/">yeast</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420301525">rats</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3988801/">monkeys</a>. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11892-017-0951-7">Short-term studies</a> suggest that it also improves health in humans. </p>
<p>However, scientists now realise that it may actually be the quantity of specific nutrients – such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4254277/">amino acids</a> (the building blocks of proteins) – that are linked to longevity, rather than the amount of calories consumed.</p>
<p>Cells sense the amount of nutrients in their environment through specific molecules within our cells. One of these molecules is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tor-an-enzyme-that-could-hold-the-secret-to-longevity-and-healthy-ageing-118568">Target of Rapamycin</a> enzyme, also known as TOR. TOR senses the amount of amino acids present in the body and available to cells. </p>
<p>When our cells have plenty of amino acids, the TOR enzyme tweaks our metabolism and instructs the cells to grow by making a lot of proteins. This process is called <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmrUzDYAmEI">protein translation</a>.</p>
<p>But if amino acids are limited, TOR instructs the body to be on alert - a state that scientists refer to as a “mild stress response”. We now know that this “stress response” is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3155297/">beneficial for the cells</a> and the organism overall, while increased protein translation and turnover is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6326689/">detrimental</a>. This is because longevity is intimately related to an organism’s ability to effectively cope with internal and external stresses. A cell which is “on alert” copes better. A cell that invests in protein translation, thus growth, lowers its defences and cannot cope as effectively with stress. </p>
<p>For example, in a <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.25.061150v1">recent study</a> scientists analysed the turnover of proteins within the cells of different animals with lifespans from four to 200 years. They found that the longer-lived animals have lower protein turnover and energy demands within their cells compared to short-lived ones. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336371/original/file-20200520-152292-13jk0no.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Naked mole rats had lower protein turnover compared to mice, which have a short lifespan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/naked-molerat-heterocephalus-glaber-juvenile-using-1015655410">Neil Bromhall/ Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our DNA carries our genetic information. Genes are pieces of DNA, and many of them are responsible for making proteins. In order for a protein to be made, the cell needs to produce a copy (called mRNA) of the corresponding gene, through a process known as <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/science/biology/gene-expression-central-dogma/transcription-of-dna-into-rna/v/transcription-and-mrna-processing">transcription</a>. The mRNA guides the cells’ <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/35080045">ribosomes</a> on the order that amino acids should be linked together, making proteins.</p>
<p>Apart from needing mRNA and ribosomes, the cells also requires energy in the form of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/adenosine-triphosphate">ATP</a>, amino acids and <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/definition/trna-transfer-rna-256/">tRNAs</a> (small molecules that will carry the amino acids to the ribosomes) for protein translation. Translation takes a lot of energy for a cell, and each cell may need tens of thousands of ribosomes to translate its proteins. </p>
<p>The more food the cell has, the more active the TOR enzyme is – thus instructing the cell to grow and divide, which requires protein translation and energy expenditure. On the contrary, when TOR is inactive (as happens during dietary restriction) it will stop translation by preventing existing ribosomes from functioning. It also stops the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/1209883">production of new ribosomes</a>. </p>
<h2>Gaf1 and ageing</h2>
<p>We recently discovered new functions of the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068653/">Gaf1 protein</a>. Gaf1 is a transcription factor, which means it’s a protein that is able to bind on the cell’s DNA and activate or repress specific genes. When TOR is active, Gaf1 is found in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/definition/cytoplasm-280/">cytoplasm</a> of the cell and does not bind on the DNA. However, when TOR is inactivated through diet or drugs, Gaf1 can <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/nucleus-biology">travel to the nucleus</a> and binds to DNA. </p>
<p>Our team found that when it binds to DNA, Gaf1 stops all the genes responsible for making tRNAs. It also stops other genes needed for translation, such as those responsible for making ribosomes. It does this by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068653/">controlling a network of genes</a> responsible for providing all the building blocks for making proteins. This means that Gaf1 ensures the cell will stop putting energy into translation by preventing it from making the components needed for this process. However, this is only temporary, and can reverse once amino acids are available.</p>
<p>We also found that cells lacking Gaf1 are short-lived. As mentioned, TOR signals cells to grow, which contributes to their ageing. But when TOR is inhibited through dietary restriction or drugs, growth is halted and lifespan is extended. Without Gaf1, the growth is not halted and the observed lifespan extension is not taking place fully. In other words, we found a molecule that mediates some of the beneficial effects of dietary restriction.</p>
<p>Though our study looked specifically at yeast, proteins similar to Gaf1 exist in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41514-018-0024-4">many animals</a>, including <a href="https://dev.biologists.org/content/145/20/dev164384">humans</a> – and have been shown to control our development and stem cells, which are both important in whether we develop diseases, such as cancer. It’s possible that these proteins have the same function in humans as Gaf1 in yeast.</p>
<p>TOR function, cell growth and protein production are important in our physiology and healthspan, but can also contribute to the development of certain diseases, such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6612215/">cancer</a> or <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828871/">Alzheimer’s</a>. Our study has shown how dietary restriction is controlled even down to the cell’s genes. Knowing this can allow us to examine how specific drugs or diets can tweak the function of these factors for our benefit – which could perhaps even increase our healthspan.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138393/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charalampos (Babis) Rallis receives funding from The Royal Society.</span></em></p>This discovery could be important in helping increase human healthspan and longevity.Charalampos (Babis) Rallis, Lecturer in Cellular Ageing, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1380922020-05-14T21:06:01Z2020-05-14T21:06:01ZMegacity slums are incubators of disease – but coronavirus response isn’t helping the billion people who live in them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334830/original/file-20200513-156651-1nldcyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C0%2C6720%2C4466&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A market area in Dhaka, the Bangladeshi capital, crowded with people despite the coronavirus pandemic, May 12, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/makeshift-stalls-at-a-market-along-a-pedestrian-area-of-an-news-photo/1212895418?adppopup=true">hmed Salahuddin/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Having <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274">ravaged</a> some of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/new-york-coronavirus-antibody-tests-2645820969.html">world’s wealthiest cities</a>, the coronavirus pandemic is now spreading into the megacities of developing countries. Sprawling urban areas in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/rio-favelas-coronavirus-brazil">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://thecorrespondent.com/378/why-social-distancing-wont-work-for-us/50039243100-5409cfb5">Nigeria</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-closes-in-on-rohingya-refugees-in-bangladeshs-cramped-unprepared-camps-135147">Bangladesh</a> are all seeing COVID-19 infections rise rapidly. </p>
<p>We study the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956247814533627">fragility</a> and <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2012/11/making-our-cities-more-resilient-cant-wait/3758/">resilience</a> of such cities and their urban peripheries, with the aim of encouraging data-driven policy decisions. Given its deadly trajectory in marginalized communities of hard-hit <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/05/08/black-and-latino-new-yorkers-get-vast-majority-of-social-distancing-summonses-1283223">New York</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c26434a2-5337-45e9-a94b-2c33fd55306a">London</a>, coronavirus may well devastate much poorer cities. </p>
<p>Particularly concerning are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-an-existential-threat-to-africa-and-her-crowded-slums-135829">slum areas</a> that are home to roughly a billion people – <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2019/goal-11/">one in seven people on Earth</a>. Characterized by insecure property rights, low-quality housing, limited basic services and poor sanitation, these <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/interview/2020/04/01/coronavirus-cities-urban-poor">informal settlements</a> aggregate risk factors that accelerate the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/covid-action-platform/articles/cities-crowding-coronavirus-hotspots">spread of infection</a>. </p>
<p>Yet, our research finds, many residents of slums and squatter settlements are not getting the help they need to survive the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<h2>Density and poverty</h2>
<p>Overcrowding is one reason slums are known <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4481042/">incubators of disease</a>. Informal settlements are typically <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/33/3/496/3926163?redirectedFrom=PDF">10 times denser</a> than neighboring areas of the same city. </p>
<p>The Dharavi slum in central Mumbai, for example, has some <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/concerns-mumbai-dharavi-slum-reports-covid-19-cases-200403053646046.html">97,000 residents per square mile</a>, compared to <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/where-world-most-dense-populated-cities-mumbai/61774">11,500 people per square mile</a> elsewhere in the city. It is far harder to practice physical distancing, at home or on the street, in such close quarters. </p>
<p>Most of the world’s poorest urban neighborhoods <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2016.1229130">additionally lack</a> clean potable water and a private bathroom, making lifesaving practices like hand-washing <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/18-06-2019-1-in-3-people-globally-do-not-have-access-to-safe-drinking-water-unicef-who">a challenge</a>. </p>
<p>To get to work – a necessity for those with very low incomes and no savings – many people in slums travel jammed together in vans and buses over long distances that are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118651/">perfect vectors</a> for disease.</p>
<p>For several reasons – among them little access to health care – people living in informal settlements also suffer disproportionately from <a href="https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/23734/">underlying health conditions</a> such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension, according to a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/series/slum-health">2016 special edition of the Lancet on slums</a>. All of these problems can exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Rio de Janeiro</h2>
<p>In Brazil, which is fast becoming a global <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/brazil-coronavirus-hot-spot-bolsonaro/611401/">COVID-19 epicenter</a>, at least 1.5 million of Rio de Janeiro’s <a href="https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room/2185-news-agency/releases-en/25283-ibge-divulga-as-estimativas-da-populacao-dos-municipios-para-2020">6.7 million residents</a> live in the city’s 1,000 “favelas,” or slum settlements. </p>
<p>Many favela residents <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshualaw/2020/04/29/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-favelas-in-rio-de-janeiro/#208f463f3ee3">lack piped water or the resources even to buy soap</a>. But Brazil’s national government, which denies the severity of its outbreak, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-like-trump-brazils-bolsonaro-puts-the-economy-ahead-of-his-people-during-coronavirus-136351">offering very little pandemic aid</a>. That’s left community organizations to deliver <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshualaw/2020/04/29/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-favelas-in-rio-de-janeiro/#208f463f3ee3">food and hygiene products</a> to Rio’s poorest.</p>
<p>Hundreds of favela residents have already tested positive for COVID-19. But with <a href="https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2020/05/10/hospitais-particulares-do-rj-estao-com-90percent-dos-leitos-de-uti-ocupados-associacao-preve-colapso-em-menos-de-15-dias.ghtml">90% of intensive care beds occupied</a>, those experiencing severe illness have little chance of getting proper emergency care. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=163%2C163%2C5380%2C3526&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334827/original/file-20200513-156675-1mdfkbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A volunteer disinfects Rio’s Santa Marta favela, Brazil, April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/volunteers-disinfect-a-road-at-the-santa-marta-favela-in-news-photo/1210468814?adppopup=true">Mauro Pimintel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The economic fallout of COVID-19 is also devastating for poorer people. In Rio’s favelas, where residents typically make <a href="https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2020/01/24/favelas-tem-poder-de-compra-de-r-1198-bi.ghtml">less than US$5 a day</a>, over <a href="https://exame.abril.com.br/economia/renda-cai-para-7-em-cada-10-familias-nas-favelas/">70% of households</a> report an income decline since the coronavirus outbreak, according to a survey supported by the Locomotiva Institute and the Unified Center for Favelas.</p>
<h2>Lagos and Dhaka</h2>
<p>Fighting coronavirus is <a href="https://theconversation.com/lagos-size-and-slums-will-make-stopping-the-spread-of-covid-19-a-tough-task-134723">proving difficult in Lagos</a>, the largest city in Nigeria and its COVID-19 epicenter. The city, Africa’s biggest, is home to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/lagos-building-luxury-homes-in-face-of-affordable-housing-crisis">an estimated 26 million people</a>. Nearly three-quarters of them live in one of Lagos’s 100 slums. </p>
<p>A large proportion of those in slums subsist hand-to-mouth, <a href="https://ng.boell.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2017/02/budgit_final_report_30.1.17.pdf">working in the informal sector</a> as street vendors, waste recyclers, artisans and the like. Such jobs offer no health insurance or pensions – no basic social safety net. </p>
<p>As in Rio, many informal workers in Lagos have been deprived of even this meager income during the capital’s <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2020/05/10/lagos-state-threatens-to-revert-to-full-lock-down/">intermittent coronavirus lockdowns</a>. Staying home to survive a pandemic <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/crp/2020/03/31/covid-19-in-africa-know-your-epidemic-act-on-its-politics/">is only an option if you can afford it</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334831/original/file-20200513-156665-vy7cwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The scene in Ojodu-Berger, outside Lagos, May 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-wears-face-masks-in-compliance-with-state-directive-news-photo/1211735038?adppopup=true">PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Similar crises are playing out in many poor megacities worldwide. In Bangladesh, for example, COVID-19 is <a href="https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2020/05/02/coronavirus-bangladesh-records-5-more-deaths-another-552-new-cases-in-24-hours">spreading quickly through the capital of Dhaka</a>, home to almost 9 million people, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/21/people-pouring-dhaka-bursting-sewers-overpopulation-bangladesh">40% of whom live in slums</a>. </p>
<p>The Bangladeshi capital has about 80 public intensive care units, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6549198/">far fewer</a> than required. Nationwide, just over 190 ICUs serve Bangladesh’s population of 161 million – 47 times less per capita than New York City after it surged its ICU capacity. </p>
<h2>Lockdowns and curfews</h2>
<p>Some developing countries acted early to prevent outbreaks and appear to have dodged the first wave of COVID-19. With memory of past pandemics fresh, governments, businesses and civil societies in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html">Sierra Leone, Uganda and Vietnam</a> conducted extensive testing and contact tracing and to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-020-00438-6">bolster their primary health care systems</a>, combined them with targeted education campaigns.</p>
<p>Yet, our research finds many governments are responding to coronavirus outbreaks in slums in one of two ways: with a heavy fist or with neglect. </p>
<p>In city after city, we see <a href="https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/militaries-enforce-coronavirus-quarantine-experts-warn-escalating-violence">strict lockdowns imposed</a> on poor populations without regard to the factors that could impede compliance. Where food handouts are provided, supplies are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/15/kenya-africa-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-sevenzo-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn">generally insufficient</a>. </p>
<p>People who violate quarantine – by trying to work, say – <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-versus-democracy-5-countries-where-emergency-powers-risk-abuse-135278">risk police violence</a>. Conflicts have <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/interview/2020/04/01/coronavirus-cities-urban-poor">erupted over curfew enforcement</a> in cities across <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/locked-in-cages-beaten-and-shamed-virus-laws-lead-to-abuses">Kenya, India and South Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Such tactics risk undermining residents’ already low faith in government, just when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730.2013.840696">public trust</a> is most needed to ensure compliance with health guidance. </p>
<p>State neglect also allows the criminal groups to consolidate their influence in slum areas. From Brazil to Mexico, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/27/mexican-cartels-are-providing-covid-19-assistance-why-thats-not-surprising/">cartels</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/brazil-rio-gangs-coronavirus">gangs</a> and <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-mafia-poised-to-exploit-vulnerable-people-during-covid-19-pandemic-1198083%204">organized crime</a> are handing out food and medical supplies, deepening their grip on power.</p>
<h2>A better way</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11524-020-00438-6">new Journal of Urban Health study</a> recommends that developing countries facing infectious disease outbreaks prioritize getting water, food and sanitation materials to their poorest residents. </p>
<p><a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/what-can-low-income-countries-do-provide-relief-poor-and-vulnerable-during-covid">Development economists</a> also advise making <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/cash-transfers-lead-the-social-assistance-response-to-covid-19-96949">cash payments</a> to the <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-low-income-help-cash-transfers-esther-duflo/">poorest households</a> and halting evictions, both measures taken to ease the coronavirus crisis in advanced countries. </p>
<p>To work in areas where trust in government is low, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-05-left-covid-settlements.html">all these measures</a> must be underpinned by a strong communications program involving credible neighborhood leaders, <a href="https://theconversation.com/clear-consistent-health-messaging-critical-to-stemming-epidemics-and-limiting-coronavirus-deaths-134529">radio, social media, TV ads and phone messages</a>. Groups like <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/opinion-slums-are-the-next-front-line-in-the-fight-against-the-coronavirus-97088">UN-Habitat</a> and <a href="https://www.iied.org/covid-19-front-line-where-crisis-meets-normal">Slum Dwellers International</a> are working with local organizations in slum communities to reach people in places where assistance is most needed.</p>
<p>Global pandemics require <a href="https://thecityfix.com/blog/cities-battered-covid-19-remain-key-recovery-ensure-investments-well-spent-schuyler-null-talia-rubnitz-hillary-smith/">global responses</a>. But places like Rio, Lagos and Dhaka face different challenges in the coronavirus fight than, say, New York City. </p>
<p>The public health response must look different, too.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklysmart">You can get our highlights each weekend</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Muggah has received research funding from the Canadian, Norwegian and UK governments as well as International Development Research Council, Luminate, Open Society Foundation, Social Science Research Council, and Tinker Foundation. He is the co-founder of Brazil's Igarape Institute, a principal of the SecDev Group and author of "Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years."</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Florida is a distinguished fellow at New York University's Schack Institute of Real Estate and co-founder of the news site CityLab. He is author of "The New Urban Crisis." </span></em></p>COVID-19 is spreading fast through not only the world’s richest cities but also its poorest, ravaging slum areas where risk factors like overcrowding and poverty accelerate disease transmission.Robert Muggah, Lecturer, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)Richard Florida, Professor, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280582020-05-14T19:57:47Z2020-05-14T19:57:47ZFight for freedom: new research to map violence in the forgotten conflict in West Papua<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334214/original/file-20200512-66719-woxodd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">BAGUS INDAHONO/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Indonesia has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-27/indonesia-to-revive-truth-and-reconciliation-commission/11829594">recently</a> indicated it is considering investigating the killings of hundreds of thousands of people in the 1965 “anti-communist” purge under authoritarian leader Suharto. </p>
<p>If the inquiry goes ahead, it would mark a shift in the government’s long-standing failure to address past atrocities. It is unclear if they will include other acts of brutality alleged to have been committed by the Indonesian regime in the troubled region of West Papua. </p>
<p>Observers of the conflict estimate that between <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=dgjUDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT20&lpg=PT20&dq=between+100,000+and+500,000+deaths+in+west+papua&source=bl&ots=lH03wnVNyS&sig=ACfU3U31j7U44k6ELRLYSvT-n93hkJew6g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiZv-Co8_XpAhWiyjgGHRXTCPsQ6AEwCXoECAcQAQ#v=onepage&q=between%20100%2C000%20and%20500%2C000%20deaths%20in%20west%20papua&f=false">100,000 and 500,000</a> West Papuans have been killed since the Indonesian takeover of West Papua in the 1960s.</p>
<p>While the number of killings peaked in the 1970s, they are rising again due to renewed activism for independence in the territory. In September 2019, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/28/i-feel-like-im-dying-west-papua-witnesses-unrest-indonesia-police">as many as 41 people were killed</a> in clashes with security forces and <a href="https://www.newmandala.org/increasing-inroads-in-west-papua/">Jihadi-inspired militia</a>.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MfgVCJntLBA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>Clashes between security forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army have escalated since January, which human rights groups <a href="https://www.humanrightspapua.org/images/docs/Human%20Rights%20Update%20West%20Papua%20April%202020.pdf">say</a> have resulted in at least five deaths. At least <a href="https://eng.jubi.co.id/a-shooting-victim-killed-in-mimika-was-a-student-of-umn-tangerang-selatan/">two other civilians were killed</a> in another incident.</p>
<p>The latest violence was sparked by <a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-talk-more-about-racism-in-indonesia-123019">racial attacks on Papuan university students</a> in Java last year, which prompted thousands of Papuans to protest against the government. The protests brought <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/this-is-the-next-east-timor/">renewed media attention</a> to human rights violations in the region and Papuans’ decades-long fight for autonomy.</p>
<p>However, because the international media have been prohibited from entering West Papua, the broader conflict has received relatively little attention from the outside world. (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-12/west-papua-secret-war-with-indonesia-for-independence/12227966">This week’s feature by ABC’s Foreign Correspondent program</a> in Australia was a rare exception.) </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/riots-in-west-papua-why-indonesia-needs-to-answer-for-its-broken-promises-122127">Riots in West Papua: why Indonesia needs to answer for its broken promises</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>New project to map past atrocities</h2>
<p>Late last year, we embarked on a project to map the violence that has occurred in West Papua under Indonesian occupation. </p>
<p>This was in part inspired by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/04/massacre-map-australia-the-killing-times-frontier-wars">massacre mapping project</a> of Indigenous people in Australia by the Guardian and University of Newcastle, and the Public Interest Advocacy Centre’s mapping of <a href="https://www.piac.asn.au/2019/05/14/tides-of-violence-mapping-the-conflict-from-1983-to-2009/">violence in Sri Lanka</a>. </p>
<p>Our aim was to bring renewed attention to the protracted crisis in West Papua. We hope that by showing the extent of state-sanctioned violence going back decades, we might encourage the kind of international scrutiny that eventually led to intervention in East Timor.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-australia-take-a-stand-on-west-papua-18953">Will Australia take a stand on West Papua?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>The map only documents some of the massacres that have taken place in West Papua since the 1970s, as conditions in the territory make it difficult to accurately record and verify deaths. The challenges include a lack of resources for record-keeping, internal displacement and frequently destroyed properties, and a fear of reporting deaths. Others have disappeared, and their bodies have never been found. </p>
<p>We also encountered a relative dearth of data from the 1990s to 2010s, in part due to few journalists reporting on incidents during this period.</p>
<p>For the purposes of our project, we relied largely on reportage from the <a href="http://www.humanrights.asia/">Asian Human Rights Commission</a> and the <a href="https://www.humanrightspapua.org/">International Coalition for Papua</a> (both of which have strong connections within West Papua), as well as research by the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Indonesias-Secret-War-Guerilla-Struggle/dp/0868615196">historian Robin Osborne</a>, <a href="http://www.biak-tribunal.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Names-Without-Graves_Elsham-Papua-English.pdf">Papuan rights organisation ELSHAM</a>, Indonesian human rights watchdog <a href="https://www.tapol.org/publications/west-papua-obliteration-people">TAPOL</a> and a <a href="https://www.freewestpapua.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/West_Papua_final_report.pdf">comprehensive report</a> by academics at Yale Law School published in 2004.</p>
<p>Among the <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5030&context=sspapers">most recent attacks</a> is the torture and murders of scores of protesters on Biak Island in 1998, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/13/west-papuans-tortured-killed-and-dumped-at-sea-tribunal-hears">according to a citizens’ tribunal</a> held in Sydney. Some <a href="https://www.freewestpapua.org/2013/07/07/protest-and-memorial-for-the-biak-massacre/">estimates</a> say the death toll may have been as high as 200.</p>
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<p><iframe id="A1wkw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A1wkw/11/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Though far from complete, our mapping project reveals several broad trends.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The majority of massacres have taken place in the West Papuan highlands, the region with the <a href="https://apjjf.org/2017/02/Elmslie.html">highest ratio of Indigenous to non-Indigenous West Papuans</a></p></li>
<li><p>many killings were committed while Papuans were peacefully protesting for independence from Indonesia</p></li>
<li><p>given the numbers of troops posted to West Papua and the types of weapons at their disposal, the government <a href="https://www.tapol.org/sites/default/files/sites/default/files/pdfs/NeglectedGenocideAHRC.pdf">should have had full knowledge</a> of the extent of devastation caused by attacks by security forces and militia groups. (Indonesian security forces are generally known for being out of the government’s control)</p></li>
<li><p>in the vast majority of killings, the perpetrators have never been held to account by the government.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/foreign/the-war-next-door/12239998">claims</a> the National Human Rights Commission (Komnas HAM) is conducting inquiries into some of the more recent incidents, although <a href="https://www.indoleft.org/news/2020-03-20/concern-bloody-paniai-case-will-stall-after-ago-returns-investigation-dossier.html">there are concerns</a> the body doesn’t have sufficient powers and the government has previously been reluctant to <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/17/palace-denies-2014-papua-killings-constitute-gross-human-rights-violation.html">accept findings</a> of abuses. </p>
<h2>Why has the world stayed silent?</h2>
<p>Both Australia and New Zealand have been hesitant about intervening in human rights crises in the region, particularly when Indonesia is involved. </p>
<p>In 2006, Australia signed the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/indonesia/Pages/agreement-between-the-republic-of-indonesia-and-australia-on-the-framework-for-security-cooperation">Lombok Treaty</a>, which assured Jakarta it would respect the sovereignty of the Indonesian state and not support “separatist movements”.</p>
<p>However, Australia – and the rest of the world – did finally act when it came to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/30/east-timor-indonesias-invasion-and-the-long-road-to-independence">independence referendum in East Timor</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334980/original/file-20200514-77239-5h2l02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australian troops serving on the East Timor/West Timor border with the UN peacekeeping force in 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780730499640/lazarus-rising/">memoir</a>, former Prime Minister John Howard mentioned East Timor independence as one of his key achievements. However, in office, he showed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/howard-government-resisted-taking-1500-east-timorese-at-gravest-risk-20191219-p53lh2.html">very little appetite for supporting East Timor independence</a> and ruffling Indonesia’s feathers. </p>
<p>It was largely the diplomatic intervention at the international level by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWEzSJYvHOE">US President Bill Clinton</a>, alongside the deployment of Australian Federal Police (AFP) working as unarmed civilian police for the UN mission in East Timor, that eventually secured the referendum. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=896&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/334890/original/file-20200514-167781-gdxrb5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1126&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Co-author Jaime Swift serving in East Timor in 2006.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Media coverage played a critical role in persuading the world to take action. In West Papua, the media have not had the same effect. </p>
<p>This is in part due to what the Indonesian security forces learned from East Timor on how to control the media. The Indonesian government has frequently cut internet services in West Papua, enacted a complete ban on foreign journalists and denied requests from the UN Human Rights Commission to investigate human rights violations.</p>
<p>Despite this, mobile phone <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/02/west-papua-students-reportedly-shot-by-militias-as-video-of-soldiers-firing-on-crowds-emerges">videos of abuse</a> continue to leak out.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1093800046821167105"}"></div></p>
<p>In the absence of extensive media coverage, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/australia-refuses-to-rule-out-handing-over-sydney-lawyer-who-advocates-for-west-papuans-to-indonesia">Papuan pro-democracy advocates and their supporters</a> have been calling for a UN-sanctioned human rights investigation. There is also significant support from human rights defenders in Indonesia for such an inquiry. </p>
<p>As it now has a <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/with-un-human-rights-council-seat-indonesia-has-choice">seat</a> on the UN Human Rights Council, Indonesia should fully support such a move. However, the <a href="http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/indonesian-elections-role-of-military/">military retains considerable influence</a> in the country, and holding commanders suspected of human rights abuses to account remains politically difficult. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/joko-widodo-looks-set-to-win-the-indonesia-election-now-the-real-power-struggle-begins-115626">Joko Widodo looks set to win the Indonesia election. Now, the real power struggle begins</a>
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<p>In fact, President Joko Widodo last year appointed as his new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/23/indonesia-joko-widodo-appoints-arch-rival-as-defence-minister-prabowo-subianto">defence minister</a> Prabowo Subianto, who himself has been accused of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/23/indonesia-joko-widodo-appoints-arch-rival-as-defence-minister-prabowo-subianto">human rights abuses</a>.</p>
<p>Given these challenges, what will it take for the world to show enough moral courage to force change in West Papua?</p>
<p>The right way forward is clear. As a member of the UN Human Rights Council, Indonesia needs to put an end to the media ban in West Papuan, support an independent UN investigation and hold accountable those responsible within the government for violent acts. </p>
<p>If Indonesia does not take this course of action, then diplomatic pressure from the world will be required.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camellia Webb-Gannon receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the West Papua Project at the University of Wollongong. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaime Swift is a member of the Cranfield Recovery and Identification of Conflict Casualties Team</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Westaway receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathan Wright is affiliated with the University of Cambridge. </span></em></p>To bring attention to the renewed conflict in West Papua, Australian researchers are going back decades to document incidents of violence in a new mapping project.Camellia Webb-Gannon, Lecturer, University of WollongongJaime Swift, DPhil (PhD) candidate, University of OxfordMichael Westaway, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Archaeology, School of Social Science, The University of QueenslandNathan Wright, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1369692020-04-28T09:32:02Z2020-04-28T09:32:02ZPlay fighting helps equip animals for later life – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330962/original/file-20200428-110752-28bp0y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/piglets-sus-scrofa-1305394129">MH Stock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we endure the current COVID-19 crisis with its important measures of social isolation and distancing, those of us in the northern hemisphere can perhaps take some solace in seeing the arrival of spring. </p>
<p>As a biologist, I find one of the highlights of the year is seeing and hearing the natural world come alive again, with animals getting up close and personal for both breeding and aggressively defending territories. No social distancing for them.</p>
<p>Particularly captivating is the behaviour of newborn animals, a key aspect being their play behaviour. However, much remains unknown about the role of play in animals, and the reason it evolved has long been debated by people who study animal behaviour. </p>
<p>For example, it has been suggested that play fighting in early life prepares animals for <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1596">later life aggression</a>. This seems inherently intuitive but, while juvenile play fighting is often structurally compared to adult aggression, this link remains to be fully tested by scientists. </p>
<p>Recent research by my colleagues and me shows that play fighting when young can prepare animals for contests when they are older, suggesting play should be considered an important part of animal welfare. But we also found that wasn’t always the case.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330963/original/file-20200428-110765-864sws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The joy of spring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wild-boar-piglets-playing-fight-forest-1166263054">MM.Wildlifephotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>As someone who studies aggression and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003347209001067">contest behaviour</a>, I was keen to study this issue. Luckily for me, as part of a wider animal welfare <a href="https://bbsrc.ukri.org/research/grants/grants/AwardDetails.aspx?FundingReference=BB/L000393/1">project in pigs</a>, we had the opportunity to explore it in detail, as newborn piglets engage in lots of play behaviour.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003347219303112">Our research</a> provides evidence of an association between the amount that piglets play fight and their success in contests in later life, depending on the animal’s sex. We found females tended to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-40980-1">play fight less</a> as piglets overall, but the female winners of adult contests had engaged in more play fighting in early life than losers. But in males it was the other way around, which contrasted with our initial predictions. </p>
<p>We think this may be related to sex differences in the pigs’ social behaviour as adults. Under free-ranging conditions, female wild boar live in groups with a hierarchy enforced using aggression that is structurally similar to early life play fighting.</p>
<p>In contrast, male wild boar are more solitary and will engage in escalated contests with other males for access to breeding females. These contests can be very damaging, involving the use of their sharp tusks. So there is a difference between male play fighting and the aggressive behaviours performed in later life. </p>
<h2>Alternative benefits</h2>
<p>However, given that social play hasn’t disappeared in male pigs as they have evolved, and the fact that overall it occurs at higher levels than in females, this indicates that males gain important alternative benefits from the performance of this behaviour. These include muscle development, coordination and cognition, as well as gaining experience in responding to <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/393866">unexpected situations</a>.</p>
<p>Play fighting experience also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-58063-x">influenced the ability</a> of our pigs to gather and use information, known as “assessment strategy”, in later life contests. Pigs that had gained high levels of early life play fighting had better knowledge of their own fighting ability, termed “self-assessment”, in later life contests. In this way, the play experienced in early life had shaped their cognitive ability in later life.</p>
<p>Put together, these results highlight the potential impact of juvenile play on adult social behaviour and suggest more focus should be given to early life predictors of aggression, a concept which is also important in <a href="https://jeb.biologists.org/content/218/1/123">human research</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330964/original/file-20200428-110757-hi2zlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Damaging contests.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-big-wild-boar-males-fighting-485964367">PhotocechCZ/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Research in other animal species has been contradictory, with a study in meerkats finding that play fighting experience did not affect <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003347204004609">subsequent fighting success</a>. But our pig findings still have wider application across the animal kingdom, given the importance of social play in diverse species. And our results support the prediction that social play has evolved for the development of social competence in later life, although much remains to be explored on this aspect.</p>
<p>These findings also have important implications for animal welfare. For example, current welfare policy highlights the importance of not just avoiding situations that have a negative effect on animals but also of providing them with <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/10/783/htm">positive experiences</a> and a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fawc-report-on-farm-animal-welfare-in-great-britain-past-present-and-future">life worth living</a>. </p>
<p>Play is likely to at least partly fulfil these criteria as it tends to be seen when animals’ other needs are met, and is likely to be experienced as <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/10/783/htm">a positive</a> emotion. So developing animal management environments and practices that promote play for farm and other captive species is important for their welfare.</p>
<p>With the advent of a pandemic virus thought <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9">to have originated</a> from a wild animal kept for live trade, we are seeing more than ever why animal welfare matters. Indeed, animal scientists have coined the term “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08927936.2019.1673070">one welfare</a>” to refer to the idea that human, animal and environmental welfare are all integrated. And during the current lockdown, I think we can all appreciate the importance of play.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gareth Arnott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Female piglets with more play fighting experience did better in adult contests – but for males the opposite was true.Gareth Arnott, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1373772020-04-28T06:48:49Z2020-04-28T06:48:49ZChina-Australia relations hit new low in spat over handling of coronavirus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330945/original/file-20200428-110765-uap1cn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s relationship with China is fractured. Arguably, this is the worst moment in Sino-Australian relations since Gough Whitlam normalised ties on his election in December 1972.</p>
<p>The Chinese saying “kill the chicken to frighten the monkey” would seem applicable in Beijing’s reaction to Australia’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-china-slams-australia-over-independent-inquiry/12185988">push for an investigation</a> into the operations of the World Health Organisation (WHO) – and, by implication, China’s responsibility for the coronavirus pandemic outbreak.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/murky-origins-why-china-will-never-welcome-a-global-inquiry-into-the-source-of-covid-19-136713">Murky origins: why China will never welcome a global inquiry into the source of COVID-19</a>
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<p>Other countries have made similar calls without drawing Beijing’s ire to the same extent.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-consumer-backlash-looms-over-morrison-s-coronavirus-probe-20200423-p54mpl">interview with The Australian Financial Review</a>, China’s ambassador, Cheng Jingye, lambasted Australian political leaders and warned of economic reprisals. This marks a new and jagged low in relations between the two countries.</p>
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<p>By any standards, this was an extraordinary step by a Chinese official. Cheng would not have taken it without Beijing’s go-ahead.</p>
<p>He accused Australia of “teaming up” with anti-Chinese elements in Washington to “launch a kind of political campaign against China”.</p>
<p>In China’s criticism, Australia is the “chicken” and the US the “monkey” as a recipient of Chinese displeasure. </p>
<p>China’s singling out of Australia for harsh criticism and threats of economic reprisals is designed to convey a message to a potentially vulnerable US ally that costs will accrue to countries that, in Beijing’s view, disrespect Chinese sovereignty.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/22/australian-pm-pushes-for-who-overhaul-including-power-to-send-in-investigators">lobbying for an inquiry into the WHO</a> in phone calls with foreign leaders, including US President Donald Trump, will have struck the Chinese as more forward-leaning for the leader of a middle power than is necessary.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-shines-a-light-on-fractured-global-politics-at-a-time-when-cohesion-and-leadership-are-vital-134666">Coronavirus shines a light on fractured global politics at a time when cohesion and leadership are vital</a>
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<p>A less costly move, diplomatically, may have been for Morrison simply to have joined France’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52319462">Emmanuel Macron</a> and Germany’s <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1271756/Coronavirus-latest-angela-merkel-china-virus-source-wuhan-blame">Angela Merkel</a> in entirely legitimate calls for an inquiry.</p>
<p>The WHO is far from blameless. Its initial responses were clumsy. But little purpose would be served by diminishing the credibility of the organisation in the middle of a pandemic.</p>
<p>Once the global health emergency is brought under control – whenever that might be – stakeholders will have ample time to review their investments in the WHO.</p>
<p>In his attempts to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/trump-s-gop-blames-china-for-coronavirus-with-eye-on-2020-races">shift blame</a> for America’s disastrous initial responses to the pandemic, Trump has sought refuge in criticisms of China and the WHO. Washington’s decision to suspend payments to the organisation is both short-sighted and antagonistic towards global attempts to contain a pandemic whose ravages have far from run their course.</p>
<p>This is another example, if example was required, of America failing to exercise global leadership in a time of crisis.</p>
<p>In the nearly half century since the Whitlam government ended the diplomatic fudge that the Nationalists on Taiwan represented the whole of China, relations between Canberra and Beijing have proceeded relatively smoothly.</p>
<p>On occasions there have been bumps, such as when then <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/01/cabinet-papers-1988-89-bob-hawke-acted-alone-in-offering-asylum-to-chinese-students">Prime Minister Bob Hawke denounced Beijing’s 1989 massacre</a> of student protesters in Tiananmen Square.</p>
<p>Or when, in 1996, then <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0001/01RP15">Foreign Minister Alexander Downer gave Australia’s support</a> to the deployment of two aircraft carriers adjacent to Taiwan after China fired missiles in its direction.</p>
<p>Beijing asserted America’s actions represented a containment threat. However, pushback then against Australia’s support for the US was relatively mild.</p>
<p>In 1996, it would’ve been unthinkable for the Chinese ambassador in Canberra to summon a journalist to receive the sort of pointed criticism – and threats – that have arisen over the WHO issue and China’s culpability for the pandemic.</p>
<p>Underlying China’s unhappiness with Australia and completely separate from the coronavirus argument is the Huawei issue.</p>
<p>Australia’s clumsy <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/huawei-20190603-p51tur.html">lobbying effort</a> to persuade other members of the so-called “Five Eyes” security and intelligence collective to exclude the Chinese telecommunications giant from a build-out of their 5G networks remains a running sore.</p>
<p>The other “Five Eyes” members are Canada, the UK, US and New Zealand.</p>
<p>It is hard to exaggerate Beijing’s displeasure over an Australian anti-Huawei lobbying campaign. Indeed, the Huawei issue underlies much of China’s angst against Australia in this latest period.</p>
<p>Incidentally, no Australian prime minister has visited Beijing in an official capacity since Malcolm Turnbull’s visit in September 2016.</p>
<p>Morrison’s conspicuous bid to hold China to account over its role in the coronavirus outbreak will be viewed in Beijing as of a piece with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-global-battle-over-huawei-could-prove-more-disruptive-than-trumps-trade-war-with-china-131828">the Huawei issue</a>.</p>
<p>None of this is to suggest other than that China’s behaviour was unconscionable, first in concealing the coronavirus outbreak from the world and then persecuting those among its citizens who sought to publicise its deadliness.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-confidence-in-us-leadership-adds-to-coronavirus-panic-133760">Lack of confidence in US leadership adds to coronavirus panic</a>
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<hr>
<p>Beijing’s early mismanagement of the coronavirus will not be forgotten, nor should it.</p>
<p>However, the question for a middle power like Australia – located in an Indo-Pacific in which China will become more dominant – is how best to manage the dragon in the room.</p>
<p>China’s bullying behaviour, its threatened resort to a form of economic blackmail and its attempts to drive a wedge between Canberra and Washington mark a vexed new frontier for Australian diplomacy.</p>
<p>Morrison and his advisers might reflect on how the world might look, as the prime minister puts, “on the other side” of the pandemic. We don’t know, but what we do know is that things will not be the same.</p>
<p>Whether China continues its rise, or slips, is an open question. However, whatever calculations might be made about the future, it has proved a mistake to bet against the Chinese since their opening to the outside world in 1978 following Mao’s death.</p>
<p>Morrison’s marketing of his phone call with Trump in which he, or his spokespeople, sought to portray a prime minister answering a call to arms against China was a mistake insofar as it enabled Beijing to pounce.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1252785723830226944"}"></div></p>
<p>China needs little encouragement to drive a wedge between Canberra and Washington. These are opportunities a more sophisticated – and less eager – approach in Canberra would forestall. It is hard to escape the conclusion that Australia’s China policy is in the hands of amateurs, or ideologues, or both.</p>
<p>This brings us to the vulnerability issue alluded to crudely by Ambassador Cheng in his AFR interview. Chinese, he warned, might have second thoughts about consuming Australian products like wine and beef, or sending their kids to Australian universities, if relations remain strained. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Chinese public is frustrated, dismayed and disappointed with what Australia is doing now.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He did not provide evidence to support such a proposition.</p>
<p>But it is the case that <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/chin-cef.pdf">Australia’s economic dependence on China</a> is such that it affords the Chinese what Australian policymakers should recognise as an unacceptable level of leverage, even a stranglehold, in times of stress.</p>
<p>No other comparable country is as dependent on China. In 2019, China accounted for more than one-third of Australian merchandise exports and one-fifth of services trade.</p>
<p>Returning to the chicken and monkey metaphor, it would be wise for future Australian governments to work hard on giving the chicken a few more options – including steering clear of the Washington coop – to avoid ending up on a Chinese chopping block.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137377/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s bullying behaviour, its threatened resort to a form of economic blackmail and its attempts to drive a wedge between Canberra and Washington mark a vexed new frontier for Australian diplomacy.Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1360302020-04-27T18:19:59Z2020-04-27T18:19:59ZWe are all niqabis now: Coronavirus masks reveal hypocrisy of face covering bans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330826/original/file-20200427-145566-7wbzzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=454%2C218%2C4880%2C3486&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is a face mask used to help block coronavirus really that different from a niqab? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ashkan Forouzani/Unsplash)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Grey’s Anatomy</em>, the longest running prime-time medical drama on U.S. television, contains <a href="https://tvguide1.cbsistatic.com/i/2016/11/10/3a58449f-2432-4a11-ab08-92b106385af7/161110-news-greys.jpg">many scenes of doctors and nurses in full gear (hospital scrubs, surgical caps, face masks) around the operating table</a>. As they talk, laugh and argue, close-ups of the actors’ eyes convey concentration and emotion. </p>
<p>These scenes contradict one of the <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/reasonable-accommodation">common arguments against face coverings</a> — or more accurately, niqabs worn by some Muslim women — that they are a barrier to communication.</p>
<p>Now that face masks are being used to help fight against the spread of COVID-19, it has caused <a href="https://theconversation.com/muslim-women-who-cover-their-faces-find-greater-acceptance-among-coronavirus-masks-nobody-is-giving-me-dirty-looks-136021">some to look anew at general discrimination against Muslim women</a> wearing niqabs. And it has got me wondering about Québec’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/world/canada/quebec-ban-face-coverings.html">face-covering ban</a>, which came into law in October 2017 as well as <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13038095">France’s ban which came into law in 2011</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1249373264524312581"}"></div></p>
<p>If Canadians, Americans and Europeans can get used to the new ubiquitous face masks, will they also get used to niqabs? Will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0269758012446983">discrimination against the few women in the West who wear it</a> stop?</p>
<h2>History of face politics</h2>
<p>The European disapproval of the face veil has a long history, as I learned while researching for my book on <a href="https://iiit.org/en/book/rethinking-muslim-women-and-the-veil-challenging-historical-%E2%80%8Bmodern-stereotypes/">Canadian Muslim women and the veil</a>.</p>
<p>Niqab has been seen as both a symbol of cultural threat and also of the silencing of Muslim women. In her book, <a href="https://utpress.utexas.edu/books/kahwes"><em>Western Representations of the Muslim Woman</em></a>, Moja Kahf traces one of the first discussions of the veil in western fiction to the novel <em>Don Quixote</em>. One of the novel’s characters, Dorotea, asks about a veiled woman who walks into an inn: “Is this lady a Christian or a Moor?” The answer came: “Her dress and her silence make us think she is what we hope she is not.” As this scene from <em>Don Quixote</em> indicates, European women sometimes also covered their faces or hair but when they did so, it was not associated with something negative. </p>
<p>Eventually, the rise of western liberalism, with its prioritization of the individual, capitalism and consumerism led to a new “face politics.” Jenny Edkins, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, studied the rise of a politics centred around this new meaning of the “face,” including the idea that the face “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Face-Politics/Edkins/p/book/9780415672184">if it can be ‘read’ correctly, may be seen to display the essential nature of the person within</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330798/original/file-20200427-145560-11i366x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A scene from the operating room in ‘Grey’s Anatomy.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(ABC)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The flip side of this new face politics became true as well: concealing the face became something suspicious, as if the person had something they wanted to hide, and prevent others from knowing the real them.</p>
<p>At the same time, we grow up learning our face is something to be manipulated, in the same way actors manipulate their faces to entertain viewers. We learn about “putting on one’s face” with makeup; “facing the world” through our education and personal grit; cultivating “poker face” to deceive people in cards or lying to parents and teachers. We learn how to compose our face so as not to show emotion in the wrong places, like crying at work. </p>
<p>The face is often a mask of our real selves.</p>
<h2>Anti-niqab attitudes and hate crimes</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C224%2C5631%2C3763&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C224%2C5631%2C3763&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327503/original/file-20200413-146889-b7cud6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Race may be a factor when it comes to the safety of wearing face masks. Here, a couple in Brooklyn, N.Y., during the coronavirus physical distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Julian Wan/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Generally, hate crimes are <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181129/dq181129a-eng.htm">on the rise in Canada</a> with the highest increases in Ontario and Québec. In Ontario, the increase was tied to hate crimes against Muslims, Black and Jewish populations. In Québec, the increase was the result of crimes against Muslims. According to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1332/239868019X15492770695379">recent peer-reviewed study by Sidrah Ahmad, a PhD student at the University of Toronto</a>, a tally of hate crimes in Canada released by Statistics Canada in 2015 noted that Muslim populations had the highest percentage of hate crime victims who were female.</p>
<p>The rise in hate crimes mirrors the opinion of many public leaders who have loudly proclaimed their anti-niqab attitudes. Jason Kenney, the former Canadian Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism, tried — and failed — to ban niqab in citizenship ceremonies. In 2015 he called the niqab “a tribal cultural practice where <a href="https://ccmw.com/women-in-niqab-speak-a-study-of-the-niqab-in-canada/">women are treated like property and not like human beings</a>.” In the same year, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper called it a dress “<a href="https://www.mawenzihouse.com/product/the-relevance-of-islamic-identity-in-canada/">rooted in a culture that is anti-women … [and] offensive that someone would hide their identity</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327502/original/file-20200413-125133-1td0bnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Polls on attitudes about the niqab have found people have grown increasingly opposed to its presence in Canadian society.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Charles Deluvio/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A 2018 Angus Reid poll found that the majority of Canadians <a href="http://angusreid.org/religious-symbols-workplace-quebec/">support a ban of niqabs on public employees</a>. These contemporary attempts to unveil Muslim women echo British and French attempts to the same in both colonial and current times.</p>
<h2>Medical face veils</h2>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/04/21/covid-19-exposes-the-hypocrisy-of-face-covering-in-quebec.html">op-ed for the <em>Toronto Star</em>,</a> University of Windsor law student Tasha Stansbury pointed out that in Montréal hospitals, people are being asked to wear surgical masks. They walk in and interact with medical staff without being asked to remove their mask for identity or security purposes. </p>
<p>But a woman wearing a niqab walking into the same hospital would be forced by law to remove it.</p>
<p>A decade ago, U.S. philosophy professor <a href="https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/author/martha-nussbaum/">Martha Nussbaum</a> brilliantly exposed the hypocrisy of face veil bans, in an opinion piece for the <em>New York Times</em>. If it is security, she asked, why can we walk into a public building bundled up against the cold with our faces covered in scarves? Why are woolly scarves not seen to hamper reciprocity and good communication between citizens in liberal democracies? She wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Moreover, many beloved, trusted professionals cover their faces all year round: surgeons, dentists, (American) football players, skiers and skaters … what inspires fear and mistrust in Europe … is not covering per se, but Muslim covering.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330214/original/file-20200423-47784-yyn65v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=699&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A New York City police officer wears a patriotic face mask.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Julian Aan/Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Is a face mask used to help block coronavirus really that different from a niqab? </p>
<p>Both are garments worn for a specific purpose, in a specific place and for a specific time only. It is not worn 24/7. Once the purpose is over, the mask and niqab come off.</p>
<p>The calling of the sacred motivates some to wear the niqab. A highly infectious disease propels many to wear face masks. </p>
<p>If we all start wearing masks does it mean we have succumbed to a form of oppression? Are we submissive? Does it mean we cannot communicate with each other? If we are in Québec, will we be denied employment at a daycare? Refused a government service? Not allowed on the bus?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Bullock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now that face masks are being used to help fight the spread of COVID-19, it has caused some to look anew at discrimination against Muslim women who wear niqabs.Katherine Bullock, Lecturer in Islamic Politics, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1370412020-04-27T15:17:43Z2020-04-27T15:17:43ZHow indigenous people in the Amazon
are coping with the coronavirus pandemic<p>A 15-year-old boy from a remote region of the Brazilian Amazon, near the border with Venezuela, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/world/yanomami-amazon-coronavirus-brazil-trnd/index.html">died of COVID-19</a> on April 9. A member of the 35,000-strong Yanomami people, the boy was the first known death among Brazil’s indigenous communities in the current pandemic. There are now growing fears that COVID-19 will wreak havoc across the Amazon.</p>
<p>This fear is unsurprising, given an estimated 90% of the original inhabitants of the Americas died as a result of European colonisation, especially through the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/03/1491/302445/">infectious diseases Europeans brought with them</a>. <a href="https://read.dukeupress.edu/hahr/article/72/4/603/146397/The-Life-and-Times-of-Grandfather-Alonso-Culture">Fragmented collective memories</a> of deadly pandemics from the time of distant ancestors still circulate in stories of <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/In-Darkness-and-Secrecy/">magical deaths caused by foreigners</a>.</p>
<p>We have worked with indigenous communities and federations <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323153927_Plants_that_speak_and_institutions_that_don't_listen_notes_on_the_protection_of_traditional_knowledge">in the region since 2005</a>, witnessing their continuing struggle against deforestation, and the wider fallout from relentless urbanisation – <a href="https://monthlyreview.org/2020/04/01/covid-19-and-circuits-of-capital/">the very conditions</a> that make zoonotic spillover and new infectious diseases <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/is-factory-farming-to-blame-for-coronavirus">more likely</a>. </p>
<h2>Varied lives</h2>
<p>Well ahead of <a href="http://www.aidesep.org.pe/noticias/pueblos-indigenas-amazonicos-denuncian-al-estado-frente-la-onu">government action</a>, indigenous federations across the Amazon launched <a href="https://confeniae.net/2020/directrices-para-prevenir-y-manejar-el-covid19-en-comunidades-indigenas">extensive campaigns</a> to mitigate the pandemic and its socio-economic consequences. </p>
<p>This is not a straightforward task. Amazonian people live varied lives ranging from communities many days’ canoeing beyond the nearest roads to <a href="https://theconversation.com/deep-in-the-amazon-jungle-brazils-hidden-cities-are-in-crisis-66712">urban existences</a> entirely dependent on constant cash flow for survival; from landowners to landless; and from those who possess traditional knowledge of forest nourishment and medicines, to those who reject the old ways in favour of mobile phones and computer games. The impact of COVID-19 on indigenous peoples will be as varied as their circumstances.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330465/original/file-20200424-163136-jfygqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indigenous people in Acre, Brazil.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gleilson Miranda / Governo do Acre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the few who still enjoy functional autonomy in remote communities there is little change: the outside world is an <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045005/meta">ever encroaching threat</a> and the longer isolation can be maintained, the longer cultural survival can be ensured.</p>
<p>Many Amazonian people are particularly vulnerable to infectious diseases. They are exposed to the effects of mining and oil extraction and institutionalised racism, which makes it harder for them to access good <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/10800">education, healthcare, and jobs</a>. </p>
<h2>One threat among many</h2>
<p>Both legal and illegal resource extraction continues despite the lockdown. Illegal operations are in fact expanding in the absence of an active resistance, disregarding travel restrictions and potentially increasing the spread of infection. Some suspect <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/first-yanomami-covid-19-death-brazl-indigenous">illegal miners</a> may have brought COVID-19 to the Yanomami.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330466/original/file-20200424-163062-1rajycm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil pollution in the Lago Agrio oil field in Ecuador.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julien Gomba</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We asked <a href="https://subsistencematters.net/viewpoints/pandemic-in-the-amazon/">our network</a> of connections in the Ecuadorian Upper Napo and the Peruvian Ucayali regions about local perceptions of needs and wants. While many are out of reach at the moment, having retreated to villages and communities without internet, the message from road-accessible Kichwa communities is unanimous: while concerned about the new disease, a much greater worry is posed by the lockdown. One traditional healer told us: “We have the plants to cure ourselves, but now that we are not allowed to go anywhere, we cannot earn any money.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330467/original/file-20200424-163122-1euuiwv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Medicinal plants (Napo, Ecuador)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gladys Grefa</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many indigenous families need to bring produce to market, in order to supplement their subsistence, fuel generators and canoes, service debts, and access phones or internet. The lockdown <a href="https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/coronavirus-cuarentena-ecuador-teletrabajo-salvoconductos.html">prevents all this</a>. In the absence of any social welfare or other economic support, this is as devastating in the Amazon as it is anywhere.</p>
<p>Among indigenous communities on the urban fringes in the Napo, there is a surge of interest in planting medicinal trees and plants in response to the pandemic. However, for the increasing number of indigenous families who do not have access to land – their territories invaded, degraded, and split into ever smaller parcels – the situation is catastrophic. Unsurprisingly, women and children suffer most, as alcohol consumption and domestic violence grow alongside boredom and desperation.</p>
<p>As we write, indigenous communities are taking matters into their own hands across Amazonia. They are closing down access routes and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/indigenous-race-ecuador-amazon-escape-coronavirus-200325132155853.html">retreating deeper into the forest</a>. Whenever possible they escape into ancestral territories, sometimes to places of cultural or spiritual significance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nina Moeller has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the European Union's Horizon 2020, and the Independent Social Research Foundation at various points in the past for her work in the Amazon. She has previously worked in a voluntary capacity for the indigenous federation FOIN, as well as the Association of Indigenous Midwives AMUPAKIN of the Napo region in Ecuador. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>JM Pedersen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The lockdown may be a greater worry than the disease itself.Nina Moeller, Associate Professor, Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry UniversityJM Pedersen, Honorary Research Fellow, Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368572020-04-27T14:19:55Z2020-04-27T14:19:55ZCoronavirus: governments knew a pandemic was a threat – here’s why they weren’t better prepared<p>Most people think or at least hope their government is doing a good job in the face of COVID-19, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c7f5a8bc-eb0e-45e5-a080-bbfd6d317def">according to the polls</a>. But there can be no doubt that governments around the world were ill-prepared for this pandemic. </p>
<p>Country after country has been locking their citizens in their homes to slow the spread of the virus for fear that their health systems get overwhelmed, as has happened in Italy. The lack of ventilators and protective equipment are a particular problem, despite the fact that scientists have called for years for governments to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5443432/">stockpile these life-saving machines</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196655309006579">protective equipment</a>.</p>
<p>How is it possible that we were not ready? Not only had <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI">Bill Gates been banging on about this for a long time</a>, but pandemics also featured strongly on <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/london_risk_register_2019.pdf">regional</a> and <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61934/national_risk_register.pdf">national</a> risk registers produced by governments and bureaucrats, as well as <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf">international</a> registers from non-governmental organisations. These administrative tools, highlight the most likely and impactful events that could befall societies, from earthquakes to terrorism, and including influenza and novel pandemics.</p>
<p>Despite all the effort that has gone into developing these tools, governments around the world have been bad at acting on their warnings about a pandemic. We see at least six possible reasons for this.</p>
<p>First, some policymakers, at least in the west, did not believe the magnitude of the problem. This was because comparable events were beyond memory, like the 1918 “Spanish” flu; or were not that severe, like Sars, bird flu and swine flu. Even Ebola was contained and subdued with relative ease, other than in west Africa where it originated. There was a sense that modern medicine, at least in advanced countries, could cope with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/coronavirus-drugs-chloroquine.html">anything the microbiotic world threw at it</a>.</p>
<p>Second, some <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/19/elected-officials-who-are-still-downplaying-coronavirus/">sceptical politicians</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panics">commentators they listen to</a> thought that risk analysts and scientists cried wolf over past viral threats like swine flu and bird flu, and thought some of the risks seemed overstated or even incredible. It does not help that pandemics often <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/644968/UK_National_Risk_Register_2017.pdf">appear on the same graphs</a> as issues like space weather, which, while a real and pressing issue, is not widely understood and sounds like something out of a Star Trek episode.</p>
<p>Third, because electoral cycles are short, politicians tend to focus more on the short term. This is <a href="https://sk.sagepub.com/reference/socialpsychology/n266.xml">a common human trait</a>, but the ramifications are more severe for politicians. Areas of public policy that require long-term investment, especially intangibles such as disaster planning, tend to be lower priority. Politicians either think that the public does not know about the risks or that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/uk-strategy-to-address-pandemic-threat-not-properly-implemented">they do not care</a>.</p>
<p>Fourth, as a species we are good at rewarding people who fix problems, but terrible at acknowledging a problem averted. For example, former US Transport Secretary Norm Mineta <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2001-sep-19-mn-47338-story.html">received much praise</a> for insisting that cockpit doors should be bulletproof after 9/11. How much praise would he have received if he had done it before 9/11? Consequently, government interest tends to focus on events that have already occurred such as floods or earthquakes.</p>
<p>Fifth, risk registers are confusing. They can feature an <a href="https://www.ap-networks.com/blog/spring-cleaning-the-risk-register/">overwhelming</a> amount of information, including long lists of many hazards and risks, and large scatter graphs like the one below linking the likelihood of an event with its impact. The illusions of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1057/jit.2011.9">comprehensiveness, precision and control</a> can lull readers into a false sense of security. But given that the registers are calculated using many assumptions, they can also be seen as inherently speculative, hypothetical and even discountable to politicians.</p>
<p><strong>Global risks in 2020</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330667/original/file-20200427-145518-m72n57.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=753&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scatter plot showing likelihood and impact of potential risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2020</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sixth, risk registers, if taken as providing guidance and accountability, can become politically risky if an event happens and governments have not been prepared. This is why some countries, for example New Zealand, have not published their risk registers despite the obvious value of developing a common understanding about risks and helping various societal sectors to prepare for them. Those that don’t publish their registers come under less pressure to act on them.</p>
<h2>What to do next time</h2>
<p>Given all these problems, what could be done differently to make sure we are better prepared for such crises in future?</p>
<p>To start with, risk registers need to be produced largely outside the political process through a partnership between experts and policymakers. But they should also involve input from a diverse range of groups, for example indigenous people or key workers, so their interests are included in both identifying risks and planning responses.</p>
<p>Each country needs to understand and learn from how others are analysing, planning and have dealt with similar emergencies in the past. It is worth noting that parts of the world most affected by Sars appear to have handled the current pandemic with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/experience-of-sars-key-factor-in-response-to-coronavirus">more urgency and success</a>.</p>
<p>Risk registers should also be published to build trust and consensus in government preparations. This would also allow sections of society, including local government, businesses, charities and individuals, to take their own appropriate actions.</p>
<p>However, registers should not be seen as an end in themselves but rather as live documents against which governments and agencies constantly test themselves to make sure that they are doing enough. Practice trials, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00919-3">as happen in the UK</a>, are essential but need to be followed up with action to improve future responses. Simply acknowledging that we are not prepared for a pandemic is not enough.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Tyler receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council.
Sir Peter Gluckman is funded by the University of Auckland and by unrestricted donations to the University of Auckland Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sir Peter Gluckman is funded by unrestricted donations to the University of Auckland Foundation to support Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures and by a Wellcome Trust grant to support the secretariat of the International Network for Government Science Advice.
</span></em></p>Despite all the effort that goes into predicting disasters, governments have been bad at acting on what they were told.Chris Tyler, Associate Professor in Science Policy and Knowledge Infrastructure, UCLPeter Gluckman, Director of Koi Tū, the Centre for Informed Futures; former Chief Science Advisor to the Prime Minister of New Zealand, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1366442020-04-27T13:52:58Z2020-04-27T13:52:58ZCoronavirus pandemic: why a flu jab is a good idea in countries heading into winter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330320/original/file-20200424-163088-rnpuhz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the southern hemisphere moves closer to winter, virologists are concerned about the upcoming influenza season. This may result in more people needing medical care for flu – including hospitalisation – while the health system is still battling the coronavirus. This may swing the pendulum in favour of SARS-CoV-2 by making it harder to control the pandemic, especially in Africa, which has <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200422-sitrep-93-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=35cf80d7_4">recorded the lowest</a> number of cases thus far. </p>
<p>There are many other respiratory viruses that circulate throughout the year. But the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year">influenza</a> virus can be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/">deadly</a>. Influenza epidemics occur in late autumn and winter – between May and August – in the southern hemisphere and during the rainy season, which may be year round in the tropics. </p>
<p>Most people who get influenza only have a mild illness: a fever, cough (usually dry), headache, muscle and joint pain, severe malaise (feeling unwell), sore throat and a runny nose. But influenza can also cause more severe illness. This includes lower respiratory tract diseases that cause difficulty breathing, such as bronchitis or pneumonia. These conditions may require hospitalisation or even be fatal. </p>
<p>These signs are very similar to those caused by COVID-19. It may create additional anxiety for patients and stress on the healthcare system this year. This is why it’s advisable that everybody get the influenza vaccine. It will not protect people from COVID-19, but it will reduce influenza-related illness and in effect ease stress on health services during this pandemic.</p>
<h2>COVID-19 and influenza</h2>
<p>People older than 65 are most at risk and could die of either flu or COVID-19. Influenza also causes severe disease in young children. This is different to COVID-19, which has so far caused very <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1198">few fatalities</a> in children under nine. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5818357/">Pregnant women and people with HIV </a> or other immune suppressive conditions are at high risk for severe disease and even death due to influenza. People with underlying health conditions may also experience COVID-19 more severely. </p>
<p>It would appear that COVID-19 has a higher fatality rate <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr">(1%-5%)</a> than influenza <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)33293-2/fulltext">(less than 0.5%)</a>. But during winter influenza can infect up to a third of the population. Every year seasonal influenza kills between <a href="https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/INFLUENZA-GUIDELINES-2020.pdf#page=5">100,000 and 600,000</a> people worldwide. There are around <a href="https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/INFLUENZA-GUIDELINES-2020.pdf#page=5">11,500</a> deaths in South Africa alone.</p>
<p>So why should the annual influenza season concern us at a time when COVID-19 appears to be much worse than flu? </p>
<p>Well, firstly we want to avoid visits to doctors if possible during the pandemic. This will reduce the stress on the healthcare system and help patients to avoid exposure to COVID-19 infected patients, so as to avoid the risk of having influenza and COVID-19 co-infections. Little information is available on the severity of COVID-19 and other viral co-infections. But a <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0299_article">recent report</a> suggests that influenza and COVID-19 co-infections may result in more severe disease in high-risk patients and complicate the diagnoses.</p>
<p>This further emphasises the importance of getting the influenza vaccine. The pneumococcus vaccine can also reduce the number of bacterial secondary infections that can compound disease, especially in children and the elderly.</p>
<h2>So who should get the vaccine?</h2>
<p>The World Health Organisation (WHO) <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5818357/">recommends</a> annual vaccination for high risk population groups. These include pregnant women, children aged between 6 months and 5 years, people older than 65 years, those with chronic medical conditions such as HIV, heart or lung problems, and healthcare workers.</p>
<p>Most countries provide vaccines for free to these high risk groups. But people of all ages will benefit from getting the flu vaccine. High-risk people should however be prioritised if the vaccine stocks run low.</p>
<p>There are, however, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/misconceptions.htm">myths and questions about the flu vaccine</a> that influence people’s decisions about whether to get the vaccine. These must be addressed. </p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>How do I know the influenza vaccine matches the strains circulating during our season?</strong> There are three influenza subtypes that circulate globally at the same time that are included in the flu vaccine. Every year the WHO’s global network of National Influenza Centres collaborate to identify the most common strains that are circulating in the northern and southern hemispheres. These strains are then used to produce specific vaccines for each hemisphere that are ready in time for the following year’s influenza season. Influenza strains may mutate or drift genetically from year to year. But most of the time the strains in the vaccine are a very close match to the current circulating strains and provide protection against most if not all the strains in the vaccine.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Can the influenza vaccine make you sick?</strong> No, the influenza vaccine only contains dead flu virus so it cannot give you flu. The flu vaccine is produced in eggs and killed to make the vaccine. Some people who are allergic to eggs may have a reaction to the egg proteins and shouldn’t get the vaccine, but this is rare.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Is it true that there is mercury in the vaccine that could be toxic?</strong> In the past, a preservative called Thimerosal was used in vaccines that contained trace amounts of ethyl-mercury. Etyl-mercury is not the same as methyl-mercury, which is found in certain fish and can be toxic if consumed at high levels. Nevertheless, due to public concerns Thimerosal was removed from all vaccines in 1999.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>I still got sick in the past after getting the flu vaccine.</strong> Other viruses such as rhinovirus or respiratory syncytial virus circulating at the same time as flu can also cause an infection with the same symptoms. The vaccine is about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm">50%-70%</a> effective in preventing the flu. But if you do still get sick or if you get a co-infection with another virus, the flu vaccine will still reduce the severity of disease. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The flu vaccine will not protect you from getting COVID-19. But by being protected from influenza, people could avoid unnecessary doctors’ visits and protect vulnerable groups from potentially more severe disease.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marietjie Venter receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa;The European Union (LEAP-Agri) program; The
BMBF (the German Federal ministry for education and Research); and National Health Laboratory Services research foundation for unrelated research.
She is currently employed by the University of Pretoria. She has acted as temporary advisor for the WHO.
The views expressed here is that of the author and do not reflect those of the funders or employer.</span></em></p>The flu vaccine will not protect you from getting COVID-19. But it will help avoid unnecessary doctors’ visits and protect vulnerable groups from potentially more severe disease.Marietjie Venter, Head: Zoonotic, Arbo and Respiratory Virus Programme, Professor, Department Medical Virology, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368602020-04-27T01:59:31Z2020-04-27T01:59:31ZHow Shinzo Abe has fumbled Japan’s coronavirus response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330584/original/file-20200427-163122-5ksnw5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">KIMIMASA MAYAMA/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As countries around the world debate when and how to ease pandemic restrictions, <a href="https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html">coronavirus infections continue their steady rise</a> in Japan. </p>
<p>On April 16, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was forced to <a href="https://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0006492744">declare a national state of emergency</a> until at least May 6, covering all 47 prefectures. This extended an initial state of emergency declaration on April 7 for seven prefectures, including the cities of Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka.</p>
<p>Two medical groups <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/coronavirus-infection-surge-threatens-to-collapse-japan-hospitals-20200418-p54l1a.html">have also warned</a> that a “collapse in emergency medicine” has already happened as hospitals are being forced to turn away patients, presaging a possible collapse of the overall health care system.</p>
<p>How did Japan get to this point? The country had initially been held up as having one of the more effective responses to the coronavirus in the early days of the pandemic. Yet, its curve <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1048/">has not even started to flatten</a> like those of its neighbours, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. </p>
<p>The relatively low rate of infections from January to March was <a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200418/p2g/00m/0fe/059000c">credited by some</a> to Japanese societal norms: bowing instead of handshakes and hugs, the use of masks in flu season and generally high standards of personal hygiene. </p>
<p>Japan has long had a reputation for conformity and adherence to rules, so a high level of compliance with public safety directions was expected.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japans-capricious-response-to-coronavirus-could-dent-its-international-reputation-136737">Japan's capricious response to coronavirus could dent its international reputation</a>
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<p>However, overconfidence in these practices, and the ongoing lack of firm direction from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, may have lulled many Japanese into a false sense of security. This has been starkly demonstrated in recent weeks as <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2020/03/24/820109359/tokyo-cherry-blossom-festival-draws-crowds-despite-coronavirus-warnings">crowds have flocked</a> to parks to view the cherry blossoms, ignoring requests from local authorities to stay home.</p>
<p>Opinion polls now <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1029/">show</a> at least half of Japanese disapprove of the government’s handling of the crisis and believe Abe’s national emergency declaration came too late.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330588/original/file-20200427-163077-1bvp05o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many Japanese believe Abe’s declaration of a state of emergency came to late.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Naoki Ogura/Reuters</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Erratic decision-making from the start</h2>
<p>From the start of the pandemic, Abe’s government has been criticised for being too offhand in its response and erratic in its decision-making.</p>
<p>Japan’s first major misstep occurred in early February, when the Diamond Princess cruise ship was quarantined in Yokohama. At least 23 passengers were <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-infections-keep-mounting-after-cruise-ship-fiasco-japan#">allowed to disembark</a> and go home without being tested, and around 90 government employees returned directly to their Tokyo offices after visiting the stricken vessel. </p>
<p>More than 700 cases were eventually linked to the cruise ship, in total.</p>
<p>Weeks later, Abe then ordered schools to remain closed until the end of the spring break in April, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51663182">sudden decision</a> that caught both teachers and parents by surprise, leaving them little time to plan and prepare. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-in-japan-why-is-the-infection-rate-relatively-low-133648">Coronavirus in Japan: why is the infection rate relatively low?</a>
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<p>Then came the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-havent-the-olympics-been-cancelled-from-coronavirus-thats-the-a-20bn-question-133445">lack of decisiveness</a> on the Tokyo Olympics. Abe reluctantly announced in late March that the games would be postponed in 2020, but only after countries began to pull out and the government was accused of dragging its feet. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-havent-the-olympics-been-cancelled-from-coronavirus-thats-the-a-20bn-question-133445">Why haven't the Olympics been cancelled from coronavirus? That's the A$20bn question</a>
</strong>
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</p>
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<p>Abe’s government has also faced criticism over relatively low levels of testing. Over 112,000 tests <a href="https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html">have been conducted</a>, at a rate of around 7,800 per day in April. But the government’s decision to <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1038/">restrict most tests</a> to highly symptomatic patients means actual cases are likely being under-counted. </p>
<p>At a press conference in mid-April, Abe pledged to rectify shortages of personal protective equipment for medical workers and ramp up testing. As an interim measure, two cloth masks are being mailed to every household, an unpopular gesture <a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200416/p2a/00m/0na/010000c">widely lampooned</a> on social media as “Abenomasks”.</p>
<p>Even when Abe has tried to send the right message, the tone has been off. This was perhaps best symbolised by the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3079761/abe-arisnitocrat-japan-pms-stay-home-twitter-appeal-amid">mocking reaction</a> to his well-intentioned “stay home” Twitter post, which portrayed him drinking tea and patting his dog. </p>
<p>Critics said it showed just how out of touch he was with the lives of ordinary Japanese.</p>
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<h2>Tokyo’s governor outshines Abe</h2>
<p>As cases began to spike in late March, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200330_34/">held an emergency press conference</a> to urge residents refrain from nonessential outings, such as visits to parks to view cherry blossoms. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330589/original/file-20200427-163072-1umf74d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Yuriko Koike has emerged as a trusted voice during the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Issei Kato/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But despite rising concerns from medical authorities, as late as March 31, Abe’s government still <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13259581">denied</a> there was a need for a national state of emergency.</p>
<p>When the state of emergency was finally declared in mid-April, many feared it still wasn’t enough. Under the law, governors can requisition property and medical supplies to use to treat COVID-19 patients, but crucially, police have no enforcement powers to close businesses or restrict the movements of individuals. People and companies <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/news/fnn2020040529068/emergency-but-no-lockdown-the-impact-of-the-new-pandemic-measures.html">can only be asked</a> to voluntarily comply. </p>
<p>The Japanese government could interpret two articles in the constitution to impose a stricter lockdown, as long as appropriate legislation is passed in the Diet, Japan’s parliament. </p>
<p>However, Abe has thus far avoided doing so. He seems to be bowing to pressure from the Keidanren, a major corporate lobby group and donor to his party, out of fear the economy could descend into an even deeper recession than the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/JPN">-5.2% reduction in economic growth</a> projected by the IMF.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330590/original/file-20200427-163122-umk3fs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Crowds have flocked to view the cherry blossoms, despite messages to stay home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kimimasa Mayama/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Demands have been increasing from health authorities, prefectural governments and opposition parties for Abe to take more forceful action. Revealing his diminishing political authority, he is <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13302380">even being pressed</a> by both senior figures and rank-and-file members within his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). </p>
<p>The LDP’s junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, also threatened to break from the ruling coalition. The move forced Abe to <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/19/national/politics-diplomacy/komeito-cash-handout-shinzo-abe-power-coronavirus/#.Xp7aWcgzbIU">extend a planned income support scheme</a> for low-income households into a universal payment of 100,000 yen (nearly A$1,500) to all citizens, as part of the government’s record 117 trillion yen (A$1.7 billion) <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/politics/Japan-to-boost-stimulus-to-%C2%A5117-tril-due-to-cash-payouts-to-ease-virus-pain">emergency stimulus spending</a>.</p>
<p>And while Abe has floundered, Koike, his <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-koike/tokyo-governor-koike-a-pm-abe-rival-takes-tough-stance-on-coronavirus-idUSKCN21V0EI">longtime rival</a>, has <a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13294064">emerged as a strong leader</a> during the crisis, praised for her <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/4476dc6b7ab1-tokyo-governors-call-for-social-distancing-sparks-viral-hit-game.html">clear public communication</a> and decisive action.</p>
<p>Abe’s third consecutive term as LDP president expires in September 2021, around the time national elections are due. Even if Japan recovers by then, his <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3038417/abe-japans-longest-serving-pm-extent-his-legacy">legacy</a> as Japan’s longest-serving prime minister is now surely being tarnished.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Japan’s coronavirus infections continue to rise as its neighbors’ curves flatten. Why aren’t people listening to the government and staying home?Craig Mark, Professor, Faculty of International Studies, Kyoritsu Women's UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1371882020-04-26T06:48:40Z2020-04-26T06:48:40ZCoronavirus casts dark shadow over South Africa’s freedom celebrations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330380/original/file-20200424-163110-rfwaun.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco Longari/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africans “celebrate” <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/freedom-day-27-april">Freedom Day</a> through gritted teeth, with a wry smile and an acute sense of irony, this year. Many, if not most, will be lamenting the loss of freedom due to the COVID-19 lockdown.</p>
<p>For most professionals, there will be no public holiday, since days slide seamlessly into one another, punctuated only by an endless succession of Zoom appointments and regular bouts of existential crisis and unease about lack of productivity.</p>
<p>For working class South Africans, the angst will cut even deeper, as food will have run out, accompanied in many cases by an even deeper fear about the future. They may be asking themselves, “will I ever work again?”. Both bemoan the ban on alcohol sales. </p>
<p>Twenty-six years ago black South Africans <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/south-african-general-elections-1994">voted for the first time</a>. Twenty-five years ago, a freshly minted democratic parliament was immersed in the process of <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/drafting-and-acceptance-constitution">writing a final constitution</a> – one that contains a <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/SAConstitution-web-eng-02.pdf">bill of rights</a> that is widely admired by legal scholars and human rights activists across the globe.</p>
<p>It contains 26 rights, many of which have seen active service in the years since the constitution came into effect in early 1997. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/act108of1996s.pdf">constitution</a>, including the charter of rights enshrined in chapter 2, is inevitably and appropriately the subject of frequent, deep and sometimes bitter contestation. Rights have frequently been claimed by individuals and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-countrys-constitutional-court-can-consolidate-and-deepen-democracy-54184">communities </a> to defend themselves from irrational, unreasonable or otherwise unlawful conduct by both state and private sector entities.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-south-africas-constitutional-court-protecting-democracy-107443">Is South Africa's Constitutional Court protecting democracy?</a>
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<p>But these human rights victories may be far from front of mind this particular Freedom Day, in the shadow of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/covid-19">COVID-19 pandemic</a>. Democratic governments throughout the world have been compelled to claim rarely used powers and authority and limit freedoms in response to the threat posed by a deadly virus. </p>
<p>President Cyril Ramaphosa chose to invoke the provisions of the <a href="http://www.cogta.gov.za/cgta_2016/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/DISASTER-MANAGEMENT-ACT.pdf">Disaster Management Act</a> at a relatively early stage, on 15 March. This extended the authority of his government so that it can impose restrictions on, for example, the number of people who may gather in any one place.</p>
<p>Consequently, citizens have had to accept stringent restrictions on their normal civil liberties. South Africa’s lockdown is one of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52125713">“hardest”</a> in the world. Everyone except for “essential workers” is confined to home, permitted out only when buying food or medicine.</p>
<h2>Freedom curtailed</h2>
<p>For South Africans, especially black South Africans old enough to remember the pre-1994 era of <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid rule</a>, this must be especially hard to bear. The sight and sound of the police and the army patrolling the streets to enforce the <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-extension-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-end-april-9-apr-2020-0000">lockdown regulations</a> must surely stir a painful sense of déjà vu.</p>
<p>The need to have a permit to move from town to town or province to province, or simply to transport produce, is perhaps even more evocative – redolent of JM Coetzee’s novel <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6193.Life_and_Times_of_Michael_K"><em>The Life and Times of Michael K</em></a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, the right to freedom of movement enshrined in section 21 of the bill of rights is now severely curtailed.</p>
<p>Several other rights are now, in effect, also suspended or limited. Most obviously, the right to freedom of assembly: congregations present a real risk of increasing transmission of the disease, as President Ramaphosa pointed out in his most recent <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-south-africa%27s-response-coronavirus-pandemic%2C-union-buildings%2C-tshwane">address to the nation</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330394/original/file-20200424-163126-1w9pboi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has imposed one of the most stringent COVID-19 lockdowns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Jerome De Lay</span></span>
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<p>Equally self-evidently, the right to freedom to trade is curtailed. Most businesses and places of work are required to be closed, unless they are providing an essential service. And students are currently denied the right to education, since schools and university campuses are closed.</p>
<p>Other, more subtle, limitations will apply; for example, to the right to privacy. A crisis of this scale and danger may justify greater intrusion into people’s online and cellular telephonic personae. Substantially reduced levels of data protection, ordinarily a matter of very great concern, may well be justified. </p>
<h2>Infringement and protection</h2>
<p>This provides an interesting example of how rights’ infringement may cut both ways. As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/test-trace-contain-how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve">The Guardian</a> has reported, digital surveillance has been a crucial part of South Korea’s apparently successful response to the threat of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Clearly, there is an upside; and a legal justification for the infringement of rights. </p>
<p>On one level, there is nothing extraordinary about this. Rights are not absolute. In a constitutional democracy such as South Africa’s they can be lawfully limited, provided the limitation passes the test in section 36 of the constitution. This includes the <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1727-37812014000600002">principle of proportionality</a>. In essence, this means that the government may only use the least restrictive measure for achieving its aim, the one that causes least damage to protected rights and interests.</p>
<p>Similarly, the regulations issued in a national disaster must comply with the provisions of the bill of rights. A court can declare specific regulations unconstitutional if they impose limitations on rights in a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-03-23-covid-19-citizen-rights-in-a-time-of-disaster-and-under-a-state-of-emergency/">way not justified by the limitation clause</a>.</p>
<p>The execution of Ramaphosa’s <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/statement-president-cyril-ramaphosa-south-africa%27s-response-coronavirus-pandemic%2C-union-buildings%2C-tshwane">five-level “risk-adjusted” exit strategy</a> could well give rise to constitutional litigation if the regulations that give effect to it are either unclear or unfair. </p>
<p>At this point, both the right to equality (and equal treatment) and the right to trade could come into play. </p>
<p>If there is a big surge in COVID-19 infections and illness, then the right to access to health care would be relevant in ensuring that everyone gets the treatment that they need to recover from the virus. </p>
<h2>Right to life</h2>
<p>Above all, perhaps, the bill of rights protects the right to life. As the lockdown <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-04-24-lockdown-eases-but-not-for-alcohol/">begins slowly to ease</a>, it will be worth remembering that the constraints on freedom were and remain justifiable on this ground alone.</p>
<p>COVID-19 represents a deadly threat to life and to livelihoods. In this sense, it threatens freedom in the most fundamental fashion. And the government is obliged to protect its citizens, limiting civil liberties in defence of freedom.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-shattered-economy-poses-a-serious-challenge-to-fighting-covid-19-135066">Zimbabwe's shattered economy poses a serious challenge to fighting COVID-19</a>
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<p>The socio-economic impact of COVID-19 will be deep and could denude many people of their right to human dignity and substantive equality. That impact, in itself, undermines the notion of <a href="https://constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/dcj-moseneke-reflections-on-south-african-constitutional-democracy-transition-and-transformation/">transformative constitutionalism</a> that underpins South Africa’s constitutional settlement and the concept of freedom hinged with equality and human dignity that the Constitution articulates.</p>
<p>South Africans will not be feeling particular free and probably not especially inclined to contemplate more nuanced, philosophical interpretations of freedom as they celebrate Freedom Day, even though the post-COVID world will likely present competing conceptions of liberty. </p>
<p>They are not alone. Throughout the world, billions of people are having to adjust to a “new normal”. For how long, and to what extent, civil liberties should be limited or suspended will depend in large measure on the future trajectory of the coronavirus.</p>
<p>Active vigilance will be required to ensure continued restrictions are fully justified and the pandemic is not used as an excuse to impose authoritarian rule in service of devious and despotic political purposes.</p>
<p>Many times in the country’s modern, democratic era the bill of rights has proved to be more than just a piece of paper. For South Africans, hard-won rights will be vigorously defended, just as the limitations on freedom will be scrutinised every step of the way.</p>
<p>Only the secret and not-so-secret autocrats, extreme-right nationalists and populist authoritarian demagogues will want the bill of rights to fall victim to this pernicious pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137188/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Calland is an associate professor in public law at the University of Cape Town, a partner in political risk consultancy The Paternoster Group, a Fellow of the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership and a member of the Advisory Council of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution (CASAC). </span></em></p>For the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, citizens have had to accept stringent restrictions on their normal civil liberties.Richard Calland, Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1342132020-04-24T12:23:13Z2020-04-24T12:23:13ZTomanowos, the meteorite that survived mega-floods and human folly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330127/original/file-20200423-47804-kl045j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C1024%2C620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Surface detail of the Tomanowos meteorite, showing cavities produced by dissolution of iron. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Willamette_meteorite_surface_detail.jpg">Eden, Janine and Jim/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The rock with arguably the most fascinating story on Earth has an ancient name: Tomanowos. It means “the visitor from heaven” in the extinct language of <a href="http://www.native-languages.org/clackamas.htm">Oregon’s Clackamas Indian tribe</a>.</p>
<p>The Clackamas revered the Tomanowos – also known as the <a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent/the-universe/planets/planetary-impacts/the-willamette-meteorite">Willamette meteorite</a> – believing it came to unite heaven, earth and water for their people.</p>
<p>Rare extraterrestrial rocks like Tomanowos have a kind of fatal attraction for us humans. When European Americans found the pockmarked, 15-ton rock near the Willamette River more than a century ago, Tomanowos went through a violent uprooting, a series of lawsuits and a period under armed guard. It’s one of the strangest rock stories I’ve come across in my <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/daniggcc/outreach-divulgacion?authuser=0">years as a geoscientist</a>. But let me start the tale from its real beginning, billions of years ago. </p>
<h2>History of a rock</h2>
<p>Tomanowos is a 15-ton meteorite made, as most metal meteorites are, of iron with about 8% nickel mixed in. These iron and nickel atoms were formed at the core of large stars that ended their lives in <a href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/supernova/en/">supernovae explosions</a>.</p>
<p>Those massive explosions spattered outer space with the products of nuclear fusion – raw elements that then ended up in a <a href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/nebula/en/">nebula</a>, or cloud of dust and gas. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321731/original/file-20200319-22594-18tm0l6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supernovae disperse the iron produced in heavy stars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NASA-SNR0519690-ChandraXRayObservatory-20150122.jpg">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Eventually the elements were forced together by gravity, forming the earliest planet-like orbs, or <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-disc-of-dust-and-gas-found-around-a-newborn-planet-could-be-the-birthplace-of-moons-118260">protoplanets</a> of our solar system. </p>
<p>Some 4.5 billion years ago, Tomanowos was part of the core of one of these protoplanets, where heavier metals like iron and nickel accumulate. </p>
<p>Some time after that, this protoplanet must have collided with another planetary body, sending this meteorite and an unknowable number of other chunks back out into space. </p>
<h2>Riding the flood</h2>
<p>Subsequent impacts over billions of years eventually pushed Tomanowos’ orbit across that of the Earth. As a result of this cosmic billiards game, the Tomanowos meteorite <a href="https://soll.libguides.com/meteorite/story">entered Earth’s atmosphere around 17,000 years ago</a> and landed on an ice cap in Canada. </p>
<p>Over the following decades, flowing ice slowly transported Tomanowos southwards, towards a glacier in the Fork River of Montana in what is now the United States. This glacier had created a 2,000-foot-high ice dam across the river, impounding the enormous <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/inside-glacial-lake-missoula/">Lake Missoula</a> upstream. </p>
<p>The ice dam crumbled when Tomanowos was nearing it, releasing one of the largest floods ever documented: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/627452">the Missoula Floods</a>, which shaped the Scablands of Washington State with the power of several thousand Niagara Falls. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/q8iRdG0tWk4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Geological evidence of the Missoula Flood includes prairie ripple marks and layered silt deposits.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trapped in ice and rafted down river by the flood, Tomanowos crossed modern-day Idaho, Washington and Oregon along the swollen Columbia River at speeds sometimes faster than 40 miles per hour, according to <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2010/02/geologists_find_a_way_to_simul.html">simulations by modern geologists</a>. While floating near what’s now the city of Portland, the meteorite’s ice case broke apart, and Tomanowos sank to the river bottom. </p>
<p>It is one of hundreds of other “erratic” rocks – rocks made of elements that do not match the local geology – that have been found along the Columbia River. All are souvenirs from the cataclysmic Missoula floods, but none is as rare as Tomanowos.</p>
<h2>A rock worth suing for</h2>
<p>As flood waters ebbed, Tomanowos was exposed to the elements. Over thousands of years, rain mixed with iron sulfide in the meteorite. This produced sulfuric acid that gradually dissolved the exposed side of the rock, creating the cratered surface it bears today.</p>
<p>Several thousand years after the Missoula floods, the Clackamas arrived to Oregon and discovered the meteorite. Did they know it came from the heavens, despite the lack of a crater? The name Tomanowos, or Visitor from the Sky, suggests that they may have suspected the rock’s extraterrestrial origins.</p>
<p>Millennia of peaceful rest in the Willamette valley ended in 1902 when an Oregon man named Ellis Hughes secretly moved the iron rock to his own land and claimed it as his property. </p>
<p>Hauling a 15-ton rock on a wooden cart for nearly a mile without being noticed wasn’t easy, even in the Wild West. Hughes and his son <a href="http://www.usgennet.org/usa/or/county/clackamas/MeteorTreasures.html">labored for three back-breaking months</a>. Once the meteorite was on his land, he began charging admission to view the “Willamette Meteorite.” </p>
<p>In fact, however, the legitimate owner of the iron rock turned out to be the Oregon Iron and Steel Company, which owned the land where Hughes had found the meteorite and <a href="https://cite.case.law/or/47/313/">sued for its return</a>. While the suit worked its way through the courts, the company hired a guard who sat atop Tomanowos 24 hours a day with a loaded gun. They won the case in 1905, and sold Tomanowos to the American Museum of Natural History in New York a year later. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330150/original/file-20200423-47794-fbig96.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children sitting in pits of the Willamette Meteorite at the American Museum of Natural History, 1939.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/group-of-children-sitting-in-pits-of-the-willamette-news-photo/516533790?adppopup=true">Bettman Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Floods</h2>
<p>Today Tomanowos can be seen in the museum’s <a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent/the-universe/planets/planetary-impacts/the-willamette-meteorite">Hall of the Universe</a> exhibition, which still refers to it as the <a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent/the-universe/planets/planetary-impacts/the-willamette-meteorite">Willamette Meteorite</a>. In 2000 the museum signed an agreement with descendants of the Clackamas tribe, recognizing the meteorite’s <a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent/the-universe/willamette-meteorite-agreement">spiritual significance</a> to the Native people of Oregon. </p>
<p>The Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde hold an <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/tomanowos-sacred-meteorite-is-returned-oregon-confederated-tribes-grand-ronde/">annual ceremonial visit</a> with the ancient rock that, as their ancestors so aptly observed, brought the sky and the water together here on Earth. In 2019 several fragments of the meteorite that had been held separately were <a href="https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2019/03/07/sacred-willamette-meteorite-tomanowos-pieces-returned-grand-ronde-tribes/3056468002/">returned to the tribe</a>.</p>
<p>But the museum’s written display tells only some of the rock’s long story. It omits the Missoula Floods, despite the significance of this event for modern earth science.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321727/original/file-20200319-22622-szfwvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Present display of the Tomanowos meteorite, American Museum of Natural History.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Garcia-Castellanos</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Decades after geologists J. Harlen Bretz and Joseph T. Pardee separately <a href="http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0912/features/legacy.shtml">posited the theory of the Missoula floods</a> in the early 20th century, their research was used to explain how Tomanowos reached Oregon, where it was found. Their work also triggered one of the most significant paradigm shifts in recent geoscience: the recognition that catastrophic flooding events significantly contribute to the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/iceagefloods/d.htm">erosion and evolution of landscape</a> </p>
<p>Previously, scientists had followed Lyell’s <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/02/4/l_024_01.html">principle of uniformitarianism</a>, which held that Earth’s landscape was sculpted by regular, natural processes distributed evenly over long times. Normal floods fit into this theory, but the notion of swift, catastrophic events like the Missoula Floods were somewhat heretic. </p>
<p>The idea of huge Ice Age floods helped geologists a century ago prevail over pre-scientific, religious explanations for unusual finds – such as how marine fossils could be found at high elevation, and how a giant metal rock from outer space came to rest in Oregon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Garcia-Castellanos receives funding from CSIC (Spanish Public Research Council) and the European Commission. </span></em></p>Tomanowos, aka the Willamette Meteorite, may be the world’s most interesting rock. Its story includes catastrophic ice age floods, theft of Native American cultural heritage and plenty of human folly.Daniel Garcia-Castellanos, Earth scientist, Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume Almera (ICTJA - CSIC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1370152020-04-24T12:21:36Z2020-04-24T12:21:36ZDeaths and desperation mount in Ecuador, epicenter of coronavirus pandemic in Latin America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330169/original/file-20200423-47820-ct3iol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=184%2C92%2C4559%2C2966&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coffins await burial at the Jardines de Esperanza cemetery in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 10, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/coffins-with-bodies-await-to-be-buried-jardines-de-news-photo/1209598949?adppopup=true">Eduardo Maquilon/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dead bodies are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-guayaquil-ecuador-bodies-corpses-streets/2020/04/03/79c786c8-7522-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html">lying at home and in the streets of Guayaquil, Ecuador</a>, a city so hard-hit by coronavirus that overfilled hospitals are turning away even very ill patients and funeral homes are <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/ecuador-bodies-of-coronavirus-victims-are-on-streets/1791407">unavailable for burial</a>.</p>
<p>Data on deaths and infections is incomplete in Ecuador, as it is across the region. As of April 22, Ecuador – a country of 17 million people – had reported <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ecuador/">almost 11,000 cases</a>, which on a per capita basis would put it behind only Panama in Latin America. But the true number is likely much higher. </p>
<p>The government of Guayas Province, where Guayaquil is located, says <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218?emci=10ae4262-b480-ea11-a94c-00155d03b1e8&emdi=71eb1005-b580-ea11-a94c-00155d03b1e8&ceid=4606001">6,700 residents died</a> in the first half of April, as compared to 1,000 in a normal year. A New York Times analysis estimates Ecuador’s real coronavirus death toll may be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">15 times the 503 deaths officially tallied</a> by April 15.</p>
<p>In a pandemic that has largely hit wealthy countries first, Ecuador is one of the first <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=EC-XT">developing countries</a> to face such a dire outbreak. </p>
<p>Wealth is no guarantee of safety in an epidemic. Italy and the United States have both run <a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-07/researchers-look-for-ways-to-divert-patients-from-ventilators-as-shortage-looms">short of necessary medical equipment like ventilators</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/kidney-dialysis-coronavirus.html">dialysis machines</a>. But experts agree poorer countries are likely to see <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-will-infect-half-the-global-population-eiu-predicts.html">death rates escalate quickly</a>. </p>
<p>Our own academic research on <a href="https://www.puce.edu.ec/">Ecuadorean politics</a>
and <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/about/management/organisation/senior/vc-fellow-altman">human security in past pandemics</a> suggests that coronavirus may create greater political and economic turmoil in a country that already struggles with instability.</p>
<h2>Ecuador’s swift response</h2>
<p>The coronavirus outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city and economic engine, began in February, apparently with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-ecuador-city-blocks-runway-to-spanish-repatriation-flight-video">infected people returning from Spain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A doctor checking for COVID-19 symptoms in a family in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 14, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/doctor-talks-to-a-family-while-checking-for-covid-19-news-photo/1209901713?adppopup=true">José Sanchez/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Its rapid escalation prompted panicked officials to impose social isolation quickly as a containment strategy. Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/ecuador-struggles-contain-coronavirus-economic-anxiety-also-spreads/">restrictions on movement are strict and getting stricter</a>. </p>
<p>Ecuadorians may not leave their homes at all between the hours of 2 p.m. and 5 a.m. Outside of curfew, they may only go out to get food, for essential work or for health-related reasons, wearing masks and gloves. Public transport is canceled. </p>
<p>In Quito, Ecuador’s capital, people may only drive one day a week <a href="http://www.quitoinforma.gob.ec/2020/04/03/nueva-modalidad-de-restriccion-vehicular/">as determined by their license plate</a>. </p>
<p>This is the second time in a year Quito residents have found themselves under lockdown. In October 2019, a nighttime curfew was established quell <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-fuel-protests-show-the-risks-of-removing-fossil-fuel-subsidies-too-fast-125690">massive protests</a> against austerity measures that were imposed in exchange for a large loan from the International Monetary Fund. </p>
<p>The protests, led by indigenous groups, dissipated after President Lenín Moreno backed away from austerity – but not before at least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/16/ecuador-indigenous-protesters-bittersweet-triumph">eight people were killed</a>.</p>
<h2>Latin America’s looming epidemic</h2>
<p>Ecuador has been more proactive in responding to the epidemic than many neighboring countries. </p>
<p>In Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro has largely <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-like-trump-brazils-bolsonaro-puts-the-economy-ahead-of-his-people-during-coronavirus-136351">downplayed the severity of the coronavirus</a>, despite thousands of new <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/">COVID-19 infections reported every day</a>. In Venezuela the power struggle between the government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition government of Juan Guaidó impedes <a href="https://theconversation.com/catholic-church-urges-venezuela-to-unite-against-coronavirus-135591">any coordinated pandemic response</a>. </p>
<p>Most Latin American leaders who have taken decisive action against coronavirus see stay-at-home orders as the only way to avoid collapse of their <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/pandemic-times-squeezed-budgets-how-coronavirus-will-test-latin-america">fragile, underfunded health systems</a>. </p>
<p>Panama is <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/panama-sets-gender-based-movement-restrictions-to-control-coronavirus-spread">limiting outings</a> based on gender, allowing men and women to leave their homes three days each. Everyone <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/world/panama-coronavirus-sex-intl/index.html">stays home on Sundays</a>. </p>
<p>El Salvador’s president sent soldiers to enforce a <a href="https://elfaro.net/es/202004/ef_foto/24307/Cerco-militar-a-La-Libertad.htm">48-hour full lockdown of the city of La Libertad</a> that prohibited residents from leaving home for any reason – including to get food or medicine.</p>
<p>It’s unclear how such restrictions can persist in a region with <a href="https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/poverty-latin-america-remained-steady-2017-extreme-poverty-increased-highest-level">considerable poverty</a> and social inequality. Large numbers of Latin Americans live day-to-day on money they make from <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/it-s-time-to-tackle-informal-economy-problem-latin-america/">street trading and other informal work</a>, which is now largely banned. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2020/04/17/espanol/opinion/coronavirus-colombia.html">Hunger threatens</a> across the region.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colombians under mandatory quarantine hang red fabric out their windows to request food aid, Soacha, April 15, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-officer-stands-guard-as-members-of-the-local-news-photo/1219067324?adppopup=true">Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Limits of Ecuador’s response</h2>
<p>In Ecuador, where the average <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EC">annual income is US$11,000</a>, the Moreno government is giving emergency grants of $60 to families whose monthly income is less than $400. It has opened shelters to get homeless people off the streets and commandeered hotels to <a href="https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/sociedad/emergencia-coronavirus-albergue-guayaquil/">isolate the infected</a>. </p>
<p>An active network of community organizations is also working to provide basic food and shelter to the needy, which includes most of the <a href="https://43bluedoors.com/2017/12/17/life-on-the-street/">quarter million Venezuelan refugees</a> who entered Ecuador in recent years. </p>
<p>Despite its active coronavirus response, Ecuador is unlikely to cope well if the epidemic spreads quickly from Guayaquil into the rest of the country. </p>
<p>Ecuador has <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/04/11/latin-americas-health-systems-brace-for-a-battering">a quarter as many ventilators per person as the United States</a>. Testing for COVID-19 is scarce and has largely been <a href="https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/after-expelling-cuban-doctors-brazil-requests-their-help-fight-covid-19">outsourced to private corporations</a>, making it prohibitively expensive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Street vendors in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 17, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/street-vendors-sell-fruits-and-vegetables-on-april-17-2020-news-photo/1210270539?adppopup=true">Eduardo Maquilón/Agencia Press South/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>President Moreno’s expulsion of 400 Cuban doctors from Ecuador last year – part of his emphatic <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-120-days-into-his-term-ecuadors-new-president-is-already-undoing-his-own-partys-legacy-85651">shift rightward for Ecuador</a> – has left big holes in its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-cuba-doctors-trump-ecuador-brazil-bolivia/2020/04/10/d062c06e-79c4-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html">already understaffed hospitals</a>.</p>
<p>Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ecuador/overview">economy</a> is in crisis after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-is-just-the-latest-blow-to-oil-producers-133498">collapse in oil prices</a> <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106008/coronavirus-economic-impact-tourism-scenario-ecuador/">and tourism</a>. And while <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/06/ecuador-lessons-2019-protests">last year’s deadly protests</a> are over, politics – and political unrest – continue to polarize the nation. </p>
<p>On April 7 Ecuador’s highest court sentenced the popular but divisive leftist former President Rafael Correa to eight years in prison <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/world/americas/ecuador-correa-corruption-verdict.html">on corruption charges</a>. Correa, who now lives in Belgium, says the charges are fabricated to ensure he cannot <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52208588">run for office again</a>. His conviction increases political divisions during a crisis that calls for unity.</p>
<p>Ecuador’s death rate is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/coronavirus-news.html">starting to slow</a> after more than a month of lockdown. But the specter of COVID-19 victims lying unburied at home, in hospital hallways, and on the streets, hangs as a specter across Latin America. </p>
<p>Guayaquil is a grim forecast of how this pandemic kills in the less wealthy world.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dead bodies left at home and in streets. Quarantined people facing hunger. Political turmoil. Ecuador’s coronavirus outbreak is a grim forecast of what may await poorer countries when COVID-19 hits.Dennis Altman, Professorial Fellow in Human Security, La Trobe UniversityJuan Carlos Valarezo, Professor of International Relations, Pontificia Universidad Católica de EcuadorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365312020-04-22T14:48:05Z2020-04-22T14:48:05ZAfrica must make sure it’s part of the search for a coronavirus vaccine<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329057/original/file-20200420-152571-49ma4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Modern day research and clinical trials are highly regulated.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The search for a COVID-19 vaccine has sparked international media controversy and negative sentiment around the potential harm of people taking part in clinical trials once the research enters its human testing phase.</p>
<p>A wave of anger was ignited when two top French doctors said on live TV that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.co.za/coronavirus-vaccines-france-doctors-say-test-poor-africans-outrage-2020-4">coronavirus vaccines should be tested on poor Africans</a>. The doctors later <a href="https://jjcornish.com/2020/04/french-doctor-apologizes-for-suggesting-covid-19-vaccines-be-tested-on-poor-africans/">apologised</a> for suggesting that COVID-19 vaccine trials should be carried out on a continent where the people were largely impoverished, with limited resources, and unable to protect themselves.</p>
<p>The statements made by Camille Locht and Jean-Paul Mira fed into a world already fissured by deep-rooted racial and economic discrimination.</p>
<p>Stigmatisation and discrimination in previously colonised African countries swung into focus, resulting in research becoming the target of populist rhetoric. Didier Drogba, a retired footballer, raised the issue that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52151722">African people should not be used as guinea pigs</a> in a testing lab. Samuel Eto’o, another retired footballer, called the doctors “murderers”. </p>
<p>The comments also resulted in the launch of a social media initiative in the form of a <a href="https://www.change.org/p/world-government-stop-covid-19-vaccine-testing-in-africa">Change.org</a> petition to stop coronavirus trials in Africa. The reasoning was that “Africa and developing countries have been testing grounds of large pharmaceutical companies” using the poor as the “guinea pigs of the wealthy”.</p>
<p>Not unlike fake news, the resultant outcome of the doctor’s racist comments was worldwide misinformation. Modern day research and clinical trials are highly regulated. In a COVID-19 world, scientific activity to develop a vaccine for global use is under careful scrutiny. Short of finding a cure, a vaccine is the only viable means to manage the devastating future outcome of the disease. A vaccine will need to be tested, and the world is watching. The doctors’ racism, however, unequivocally reminded the African continent of past medical discrimination at the hands of European countries. The result was a gratuitous attack on scientific research. </p>
<p>Finding a vaccine for COVID-19 is a worldwide medical emergency, necessary to prevent the death of millions of people. Should Africa participate in a global clinical trial? Absolutely. To refuse inclusion would <a href="https://dl.uswr.ac.ir/bitstream/Hannan/79600/1/2019%20Lancet%20Volume%20393%20Issue%2010167%20January%20%282%29.pdf">prevent</a> Africa’s researchers from being significant players in the universal fight against the virus. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/few-clinical-trials-are-done-in-africa-covid-19-shows-why-this-urgently-needs-to-change-135117">Few clinical trials are done in Africa: COVID-19 shows why this urgently needs to change</a>
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<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The extreme reaction from Africa was not entirely without merit. There are countries on the continent where vaccines and medical research are viewed with suspicion, and where both have been linked to activities, in the name of medicine, which were carried out in a grossly unethical manner. </p>
<p>During a meningitis outbreak in Nigeria, pharmaceutical company <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/pfizer-lawsuit-re-nigeria">Pfizer</a> tested Trovan, an experimental antibiotic drug, on 200 children without proper consent. In Malawi, during an <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27667377?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">AZT trial</a>, in spite of there being alternative treatment available, a placebo was given to pregnant women enrolled on the trial. There is an ethical standard in research where a placebo, a substance which is of no therapeutic benefit, may not be given when investigating the efficacy of a new drug or drug regimen in cases where there is appropriate treatment available. </p>
<p>The legacy of this is that some <a href="https://ojs.library.queensu.ca/index.php/CRI/article/view/11765">people are afraid</a> of <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29629189">being infected with diseases</a> by vaccination. </p>
<p>That medical research and medicine were involved in historical abuse cannot be argued, but clinical trials in the 21st century look very different. </p>
<h2>A changed environment</h2>
<p>Globalisation in the past decade has shifted the trend in research activity from being done in developed countries to include trials in low- and middle-income countries. </p>
<p>Fears that countries may not have the <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/1472-6939-14-31.pdf">institutional capacity</a> to carry out research to the same ethical standards as their western counterparts have disappeared. Instead global health research partnerships have sprung up across continents. This has led to increased collaboration between European and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-africa-has-developed-its-scientific-research-capabilities-135345">African research organisations</a>. </p>
<p>Research which takes place in Africa is predominantly funded by northern sponsors, with national academics and clinicians <a href="https://bmcmedethics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12910-018-0280-7">partnering in the research</a> process. This has had a balancing effect – sponsored projects assist African research institutions to acquire funding for their own projects, to facilitate publishing of results, and to upscale research knowledge. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-never-been-a-more-compelling-time-for-african-scientists-to-work-together-135849">Coronavirus: never been a more compelling time for African scientists to work together</a>
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<p>The ethical frameworks of these trials are stringent. International research organisations provide oversight to ensure that participants are protected. </p>
<p>Research carries risk, which is why there are international codes which protect participants. Each country has national legislation and standards to ensure that research is carried out ethically. This means that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>No person can be enrolled in a clinical trial without first giving their informed consent. To give informed consent, the potential participant must have the entire process of the project explained to them. This includes all of the possible risks and harms, as well as the expected outcomes. This must be done in a language and at a level that the participant is able to understand. </p></li>
<li><p>Participants may not be enrolled without being given the opportunity to leave the project at any time. </p></li>
<li><p>A participant’s personal information must be confidential, and the researcher may not use the participant’s information if the person has withdrawn. </p></li>
<li><p>There are agencies where the participant can lay a formal complaint.</p></li>
<li><p>All participants must be followed up after involvement in a research project, and there must be a plan in place to assist any participant who requires additional care arising from the trial. </p></li>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-must-share-research-findings-with-participants-heres-why-133454">Scientists must share research findings with participants. Here's why</a>
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<h2>COVID-19 trials</h2>
<p>COVID-19 medication trials are taking place around the world. In Asia 1000 participants have already been recruited in to test Remdesivir, a drug developed by an American pharmaceutical company, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/gilead-to-donate-experimental-coronavirus-drug-for-140-000-cases">Gilead</a>. In the US the <a href="https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/the-new-coronavirus-the-urgent-but-long-race-for-a-vaccine-20200320">first trials</a> of a vaccine are being run on 45 healthy participants. </p>
<p>Legitimate medical research activities are important to ensure that pandemics like the COVID-19 tragedy can be managed. Should Africa not be involved in the fight, it will be an indictment against medical research’s basic foundation – to allow people to choose to be part of the solution or to refuse on informed and valid grounds. The alternative is to sit idly by, as part of the global furniture waiting to be saved. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/africa-joins-the-race-to-trace-covid-19-with-genomics-136427">Africa joins the race to trace COVID-19 with genomics</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136531/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gale Ure does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To refuse inclusion would prevent Africa’s researchers from being significant players in the universal fight against the virus.Gale Ure, Research Specialist: Life Healthcare Group, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1367842020-04-22T14:21:16Z2020-04-22T14:21:16ZTurkey is facing its own coronavirus crisis – so why is it sending medical supplies to the UK?<p>Amid a <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2020/04/19/why-countries-cant-meet-the-demand-for-gear-against-covid-19?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-04-20&utm_content=article-link-1">global rush</a> to find medical equipment for healthcare workers on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK has <a href="https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1251420198286090240?s=03">ordered</a> 84 tonnes of personal protective equipment (PPE) from Turkey. </p>
<p>But, for <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-only-formally-asked-turkey-for-ppe-shipment-after-it-said-it-was-already-on-its-way-11976238">no apparent reason</a>, the shipment was delayed, amid mounting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/19/hospital-leaders-hit-out-government-ppe-shortage-row-escalates-nhs">controversy</a> over the UK’s dependence on international suppliers for protective equipment. At least part of the shipment did eventually <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/delayed-plane-carrying-ppe-from-turkey-lands-in-uk-coronavirus">arrive on a plane</a> from Turkey on April 22. </p>
<p>Turkey has also sent out medical supplies prepared by its Ministry of Defence in the <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/turkey-sends-aid-to-nearly-30-countries-in-fight-against-covid-19-35290">form of aid</a> to nearly 30 countries across the globe, including the UK, Italy and Spain.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Turkey is struggling with its own coronavirus health crisis and possible shortage of PPE. As of April 22, the country <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">had reported 95,591 cases</a> of COVID-19 and 2,259 deaths, according to data collated by John Hopkins University. </p>
<p>The Turkish Medical Association <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/world/middleeast/coronavirus-turkey-deaths.html">has warned</a> of problems surrounding the availability of PPE and conveyed fears among healthcare workers that they may run out of equipment. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was criticised by the head of the <a href="https://yetkinreport.com/en/2020/04/03/aksener-slams-erdogan-for-turkeys-anti-corona-policy/">opposition Good Party</a>, which questioned aid to Italy and Spain at a time when the Turkish government was asking for donations from citizens to help combat the disease at home. </p>
<p>Despite these questions, Turkey has continued to ship PPE to other countries. Ankara may be trying to <a href="https://theconversation.com/turkey-tries-to-keep-wheels-of-economy-turning-despite-worsening-coronavirus-crisis-135370">boost its manufacturing sector</a> and its economy during the pandemic. But there are also a deeper historical and political reasons behind this recent generosity.</p>
<h2>Status through compassion</h2>
<p>Before the pandemic began, Turkey was stuck in a complex crisis with political, economic and international dimensions. The main foreign and domestic policy agenda was the imbroglio in Syria and ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51667717">battle over Idlib</a>. At home, Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party had lost <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47764393?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c6xkk152803t/turkish-lira-crisis&link_location=live-reporting-story">municipal elections</a> in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 and the economy had been under stress at least since <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45142256">the 2018 exchange rate</a> fluctuation.</p>
<p>But with the pandemic these crises have been all but forgotten. The new global agenda gave a rare opportunity to Erdoğan’s government to promote its strength at home and reconcile its image abroad.</p>
<p>The logo of the Turkish presidency was attached to the boxes, indicating the significance of this move for Erdoğan’s image. Some of the aid packages also contained a quote from the 13th-century Sufi mystic Mevlana Rumi – who is known for his peaceful Islamic teachings – linking the recent gesture to a long tradition of compassion in Islam. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1248572731190325248"}"></div></p>
<p>The idea of mercy is important in Turkey’s collective identity – and the way the country thinks about itself. Epitomised in the words “peace at home, peace in the world” by the <a href="http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkish-foreign-policy-during-ataturks-era.en.mfa">founder of the Turkish Republic</a>, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, benevolence sporadically surfaces in Turkey’s relations with other countries as a benign way to restore self-worth. </p>
<p>Drawing on <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354066108100053">Islamic thought</a>, compassion can also be practised in international relations to redeem dignity and gain respect. In Islam, God is compassionate and kind – acts in his name should follow the same practice. Being a good Muslim is connected to sharing wealth, helping those who are in need and giving alms. Evoking these beliefs, Rumi’s quote on hope would strike a chord with many Turks who feel pride in helping others.</p>
<p>In the past two decades, under Erdoğan’s rule, Turkey has relied on similar sentiments to become a regional power in international relations, extending its influence in the Middle East and Africa. Craving higher status, Turkey has used global aid to increase its <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2019-01-10/turkeys-bid-religious-leadership">soft power</a> in the Muslim world and beyond. This aid has been distributed in particular to Muslim nations in need, through the <a href="https://www.tika.gov.tr/en">Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency</a> and Islamic NGOs, backed by the <a href="https://diyanet.gov.tr/en-US/">Directorate of Religious Affairs</a>.</p>
<p>The new COVID-19 assistance to European countries and others combines this policy with a new kind of power politics. It is, in part, a peaceful attempt to restore Turkey’s status and image at a time when they were particularly tarnished by the situation in Syria.</p>
<h2>A friend and an ally</h2>
<p>Assistance to and cooperation with the UK also has special meaning. The UK has been a critical ally of Turkey in the past few years. When Erdoğan faced <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-did-turks-react-so-strongly-against-anti-erdogan-coup-62643">a military coup</a> in July 2016, the British government was among the <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkish-pm-receives-new-uk-foreign-office-minister/613145">first to condemn it</a>. The events surrounding the coup left an emotional imprint on Turkish politics and there is longstanding gratitude to those – <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmfaff/615/615.pdf">like the UK</a> – who stood by Erdoğan at a traumatic moment. </p>
<p>Seen from this angle, it’s unsurprising that Ankara would want to reciprocate in this time of distress. Tellingly, the cargo plane that carried aid to the UK on April 10 also delivered a personal letter from Erdoğan expressing solidarity with the UK and wishing the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, <a href="https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/haberler/detay/president-erdogan-sends-a-letter-to-british-prime-minister-johnson">a speedy recovery</a>. </p>
<p>The aid packages, and readiness to supply PPE, gives Turkey an opportunity to reconcile its battered global image while strengthening old alliances. This example of “reverse aid” from East to West also signifies economic and political opportunities for states seeking higher status and power.</p>
<p>Countries like Turkey may find they now have a chance to reinvent themselves in cooperation with the West. Using peaceful means to gain respect on the global stage would not only be beneficial for them but would also give hope for a brighter future in global politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136784/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yaprak Gürsoy receives funding from the British Institute at Ankara (BIAA).</span></em></p>The show of compassion is part of an attempt by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to revamp Turkey’s international status.Yaprak Gürsoy, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Aston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1365152020-04-22T06:25:35Z2020-04-22T06:25:35ZHow the Spanish flu affected Kenya – and its similarities to coronavirus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329373/original/file-20200421-82645-10elwvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya's government have issued a directive that people must wear masks while in public places.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Boniface Muthoni/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 1918 influenza pandemic – called the “Spanish flu” – remains <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html">the most</a> significant public health event ever recorded in human history. It’s estimated that half a billion people were infected, and that between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/bhm.2002.0022">20 million and 100 million people died</a>. Most deaths occurred in Asia (36 million). In Africa 2.5 million died, Europe 2.3 million and North America 1.6 million. </p>
<p>The exact origin of the flu is still unclear. Some <a href="https://archive.org/details/influenzaepidemi00vauguoft/page/n1/mode/2up">reports indicate</a> that it first occurred and spread within the US in 1918. A more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0968344513504525">recent study</a> suggests the pandemic originated in China in 1917, and was introduced into Canada and the US by Chinese labourers. Soldiers, returning home after the end of World War I, then brought it to Europe and the rest of the world. </p>
<p>The Spanish flu is believed to have <a href="https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=7411876">come to Kenya with returning</a> veterans who docked in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44447656">Mombasa port</a>. The country was still a British colony at the time. In nine months the epidemic killed about 150,000 people, between <a href="https://www.academia.edu/31804192/Spanish_Influenza_in_Kenya.pdf">4% and 6% of the population</a> at the time. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/4/2/91">recent study</a>, my colleagues and I examined the impact of the Spanish flu in coastal Kenya. We chose the coastal province because it was the colony’s most critical administrative area, due to its port in Mombasa. It also had better administrative and health records.</p>
<p>Vital data from this period is incomplete and biased, so we examined narratives of how the pandemic affected people’s lives. We saw that there were various forms of social and economic disruption, ranging from social distancing to the suspension of nonessential services, paralysed administrative operations, widespread food shortages, commercial losses, and an overwhelmed healthcare sector. </p>
<p>Kenya is battling a new pandemic: COVID-19. Even though it’s 100 years later, the new coronavirus has echoes of those experiences a century ago.</p>
<h2>The flu spread rapidly</h2>
<p>For our study we used colonial records and correspondence from Kenya’s National Archives Library in Nairobi. The interactions between district and provincial level administrations on the pandemic were key sources. They included the minutes of local chiefs’ weekly meetings, health facility case and death summaries, case report forms, district officers’ letters and routine district briefs. </p>
<p>In the same period (1912-1925), the entire Coast Province (seven districts) had a population that ranged between 170,000 and 243,841 people. We focused on five of the seven districts with data on pandemic cases: Kilifi (previously Nyika), Kwale (previously Vanga), Mombasa, Taita Taveta and Malindi.</p>
<p>Before the Spanish flu came, patient visits to healthcare facilities varied between 9 and 33 for every 1,000 people per year. By 1918 this had increased five-fold, to 146.8 visits. </p>
<p>Similarly, trends of mortality increased sharply from 1918, from less than five deaths per 1,000 people per year to 25 deaths. This high mortality rate continued through to 1925. </p>
<p>We found that the Spanish flu spread rapidly, and had a high mortality rate. In just nine months – from September 1918 to June 1919 – there were approximately 31,908 cases and 4,593 deaths associated with the Spanish flu in Kenya’s coastal province. In the same period, 150,000 deaths were <a href="https://www.academia.edu/31804192/Spanish_Influenza_in_Kenya.pdf">reported</a> across the country. </p>
<p>A letter from the Kwale assistant district commissioner in 1919 explained who was most susceptible: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Death occurred mostly among the old men and women, and judging from the number of elders of council reported to have died must have run into hundreds…and…Very few of the young and middle aged…</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In 1919, the Kilifi district commissioner also described the conditions that led to more cases:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I consider the deaths have been augmented when either of the following two conditions have been present. (a) Overcrowding, as in Malindi, Mambrui and Roka. (b) Normally difficult conditions of life. I mean when food has been hard to come by or water far removed from villages…</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Health interventions</h2>
<p>To tackle the pandemic, colonial authorities developed guidelines for healthcare workers, including social distancing, personal hygiene practices and medical treatment. The ultimate goal was to reduce community transmission. </p>
<p>Healthy people were told to avoid contact with sick individuals and to take prophylactic remedies, such as gargling with potassium permanganate, and oral quinine. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-bungled-the-spanish-flu-in-1918-history-mustnt-repeat-itself-for-covid-19-133281">South Africa bungled the Spanish flu in 1918. History mustn't repeat itself for COVID-19</a>
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</em>
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<p>Those already sick were advised to seek bed rest, home nursing and proper nourishment, in addition to oral quinine three times a day. These rudimentary prescriptions did very little.</p>
<p>For most local Kenyans, who couldn’t access or afford medication, the recommendations included home nursing, a teaspoon of paraffin oil three times a day and eating meals that were high in starch and enriched with milk. </p>
<p>Prolonged bed rest and a slow return to work was advised, and for patients with depression, a tonic treatment was prescribed.</p>
<h2>Social and economic disruption</h2>
<p>In four of the five district administrative offices, absenteeism due to sickness led to several disruptions of public service provision.</p>
<p>Among the local Kenyans, the illness caused job losses, increased food insecurity and affected households’ ability to pay colonial taxes. Consequently, many suffered reduced “vitality” and low incomes. </p>
<p>For those depending on subsistence farming, the total or partial crop failure occasioned by poor weather in 1918 and lack of seed supplies worsened the poor health of the population. </p>
<p>Economic disruption was also reported in large commercial farms. These suffered massive losses due to unprecedented labour shortages. </p>
<p>In the healthcare sector, the situation was grave. Understaffed facilities were overwhelmed with the influx of patients, low reserves of medical supplies and little colonial administration support. The scale of the problem caused such panic that the authorities allowed the use of placebo therapeutics to pacify residents’ anger.</p>
<p>A century ago, the Spanish flu caused untold suffering and social disruption to hundreds of thousands of locals. We can argue that the mitigation efforts and medical advances of the time did little. In addition, what brought it into the country – global war and colonial rule – were beyond the control of locals. </p>
<p>But what stands out is that the actions of locals, individually and collectively, contributed to the sickness and death. We found that most locals disregarded quarantine measures and, in the peak of the outbreak, went to their rural villages. This amplified community transmission. </p>
<p>In the COVID-19 pandemic, we can draw parallels and learn from our past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fred Andayi received funding from French science and technology research institute (Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), France.
Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of his past or present affiliate institutions.
</span></em></p>In Kenya, the Spanish flu caused various forms of social and economic disruption, ranging from social distancing to the suspension of nonessential services and widespread food shortages.Fred Andayi, Research Associate, Kenya Medical Research InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1366462020-04-21T10:08:41Z2020-04-21T10:08:41ZVietnam has reported no coronavirus deaths – how?<p>Vietnam – a developing country that has a large land border with China and a population of 97 million people – has not reported a single death from coronavirus. As of April 21, the country had <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">reported 268 cases</a> of COVID-19, the disease associated with the new coronavirus, with more than 140 people <a href="https://vietnam.vnanet.vn/english/number-of-covid-19-cases-remains-at-268-as-of-april-17-morning/443427.html">making a full recovery</a>.</p>
<p>The reason why Vietnam has managed to keep patients from death’s door is down to a three-pronged government strategy. While these policy choices may not all be consistent with upholding civil liberties, they are proving essential to keeping the pandemic at bay. </p>
<h2>Temperature screening and testing</h2>
<p>Starting in February, anyone arriving at an airport in a major Vietnamese city had to go through compulsory body temperature screening and fill in a <a href="https://tokhaiyte.vn/">health self-declaration</a>, stating their contact details and travel and health history. These measures are now mandatory for everyone entering major cities and some provinces by land too, and for everyone entering a government building or hospital. </p>
<p>Anyone with a body temperature of over 38C is taken to the nearest medical facility for more thorough testing. Those who are proven to have lied in their self-declaration, or who resist declaring altogether, <a href="https://thanhnien.vn/thoi-su/khong-khai-bao-tron-cach-ly-nhieu-chuyen-gia-y-te-phap-luat-ung-ho-xu-ly-nghiem-1200883.html">can be criminally charged</a>. </p>
<p>Businesses including <a href="https://www.agribank.com.vn/vn/ve-agribank/tin-tuc-su-kien/cac-tin-khac/don-vi-thanh-vien/agribank-tay-ho-1203">banks</a>, restaurants and <a href="https://thanhnien.vn/doi-song/do-than-nhiet-khi-vao-chung-cu-carina-o-tphcm-tranh-cai-gay-gat-1197840.html">apartment complexes</a> have also implemented their own screening procedures. </p>
<p>There has also been intensive testing across the country. <a href="https://tuoitre.vn/viet-nam-bat-dau-mo-rong-xet-nghiem-nhanh-phat-hien-som-covid-19-20200401084613529.htm">Testing stations</a> have been set up across cities, which all citizens can attend. Communities who live near confirmed cases – <a href="https://tuoitre.vn/can-canh-cach-ly-thon-ha-loi-hon-10-000-nhan-khau-vi-lien-quan-benh-nhan-243-2020040812412599.htm">sometimes an entire street or village</a> – are swiftly tested and placed in lockdown. </p>
<p>Our own <a href="https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/09/04/2020/testing-capacity-state-capacity-and-covid-19-testing">research</a> on the development of affordable test kits found that by March 5, Vietnam had validated three different test kits, each costing less than US$25 (£20) and producing results within 90 minutes. These are all being manufactured in Vietnam. The cost of testing matters everywhere, but is particularly important in emerging economies like Vietnam and these affordable test kits have helped the government’s intensive testing strategy.</p>
<h2>Targeted lockdowns</h2>
<p>The second prong of Vietnam’s approach is quarantine and lockdowns. Since mid-February, <a href="https://thanhnien.vn/gioi-tre/nhung-ngay-song-cham-cua-du-hoc-sinh-anh-trong-khu-cach-ly-1201984.html">Vietnamese people returning home</a> from abroad have been quarantined for 14 days on arrival and tested for COVID-19. The same quarantine policy has been <a href="https://southeastasiaglobe.com/coronavirus-life-inside-a-vietnamese-government-quarantine/">applied to foreigners</a> coming to Vietnam. Anyone who has come into direct contact with an infected person, the details of whom are publicised, is encouraged to come forward for quarantine. If it’s discovered somebody has come into contact with someone who has tested positive, they will be put into mandatory quarantine.</p>
<p>In March, Vietnam started to lock down whole cities and specific areas in a city. Travelling between cities is now highly restricted. <a href="https://tuoitre.vn/tra-phi-cach-ly-o-da-nang-120-000-dong-ngay-hai-phong-chi-75-000-20200406080706245.htm">In Danang</a> in central Vietnam, anyone who is not a registered resident of the city but wishes to enter has to submit to a 14-day quarantine at a government-approved facility which they must finance themselves.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6YpYSWHTCc">Villages of 10,000 people</a> have been fenced off on account of single cases. Bach Mai, a famous hospital of 3,200 people in Hanoi <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/09/world/asia/09reuters-health-coronavirus-vietnam.html">which is also a leading COVID-19 treatment centre</a>, was even locked down in late March after one externally contracted staff member tested positive. Businesses, both state and private, are closed down, and the tourism and airline industries are essentially frozen.</p>
<h2>Constant communications</h2>
<p>From early January, the Vietnamese government has communicated widely to citizens about the seriousness of the coronavirus. Communications have been clear: COVID-19 is not just a bad flu, but something to be taken extremely seriously, so people are advised not to put themselves or others at risk. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329138/original/file-20200420-152607-1j0r453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A text sent via Zalo from the Ministry of Health looking for people who had visited Lucky Star Gym as one confirmed COVID-19 case went there. Below are some tips for staying well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government has been creative in its communications methods. Each day, different parts of the Vietnamese government – from the prime minister, to the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Information and Communications and provincial governments – text citizens with information. Details on symptoms and protection measures are communicated via text to mobile phones all over the country. The government has also partnered with messaging platforms, such as Zalo, to distribute updates. This is coupled with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/09/in-a-war-we-draw-vietnams-artists-join-fight-against-covid-19">propaganda art across the country</a> and newly designed stamps that further disseminate public health messages about the virus. Vietnam’s cities are adorned with posters that remind citizens of their role in stopping the spread of the virus. </p>
<p>At the same time, the government is revealing details of those who have COVID-19 or, in rare cases, have <a href="https://thanhnien.vn/thoi-su/lao-cai-phat-lenh-truy-tim-benh-nhan-tron-cach-ly-tu-khoa-truyen-nhiem-1203826.html">escaped quarantine</a> – though the person’s name is not made public. For example, two new reports detailed the travel details of patients <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7xDd_g4xSI">237</a> and <a href="https://tuoitre.vn/bo-y-te-thong-bao-khan-tim-nguoi-tiep-xuc-voi-benh-nhan-covid-19-so-243-20200407174248452.htm">243</a>. </p>
<p>Even if some cases have not yet been detected by officials, there’s no doubt that the Vietnamese approach has been effective in reducing the spread of the virus. Combined, these measures mean Vietnam has not yet experienced any large scale community outbreak, which would devastate a city like Ho Chi Minh City with a population of 11 million and overwhelm the country’s public healthcare system. </p>
<p>The three prongs of Vietnam’s strategy may not be wholly consistent with liberal ideals, but they are working. The healthcare system has the time to treat each patient, and in so doing, keep the number of COVID-19 deaths at zero. Vietnam offers important lessons as COVID-19 is set to spread further across developing countries. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301912/original/file-20191115-66957-gxdqkd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Get the latest news and analysis, direct from the experts in your inbox, every day. Join hundreds of thousands who trust experts by <strong><a href="http://theconversation.com/newsletter?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCNewsletter&utm_content=newsletterA">subscribing to our newsletter</a></strong>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Klingler-Vidra receives funding from the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ba-Linh Tran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Intensive screening, testing, quarantine and public communication have helped keep numbers of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam very low.Robyn Klingler-Vidra, Senior Lecturer in Political Economy, King's College LondonBa-Linh Tran, PhD Candidate, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1363512020-04-20T18:43:28Z2020-04-20T18:43:28ZJust like Trump, Brazil’s Bolsonaro puts the economy ahead of his people during coronavirus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328809/original/file-20200417-152585-g2xnc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C3537%2C2328&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro puts on a mask during a March news conference about the coronavirus pandemic.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andre Borges)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 coronavirus has infected more than two million people and killed more than 150,000 in almost 200 countries — <a href="https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6">figures that will be outdated by the time you read this article</a>. Different countries have responded to the crisis by imposing national strategies that include the shutdown of non-essential places, home confinement and physical distancing.</p>
<p>We now know that many countries were late in imposing social distancing measures, often because <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html">the leaders of those countries failed to acknowledge</a> the seriousness of the problem. China and the United States have been criticized for their lax response. Brazil should also be lumped into the same category.</p>
<p>Official figures from the Brazilian health ministry have shown a relatively small number of deaths from COVID-19 — about 2,000 people killed by the disease in a country with a population of more than 200 million. But researchers have shown Brazil is under-reporting COVID-19 infections and deaths, and that <a href="https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/brazil-likely-has-12-times-more-coronavirus-cases-than-official-count-study-finds">the country likely has 12 times more coronavirus cases than the official numbers</a>.</p>
<p>Like the leaders of China and the United States did in the early stages of the outbreak, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the risks of the coronavirus. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/bolsonaro-urges-brazilians-back-to-work-dismisses-coronavirus-hysteria-idUSKBN21B2H2">In late March, he argued</a>: “Life must go on, employments should be kept, people’s income should be preserved, so all Brazilians should go back to normal.” The elderly were the most susceptible to infection, he said, so “<a href="https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2020/03/bolsonaro-criticizes-the-closure-of-schools-attacks-governors-and-blames-the-media-in-televised-statement.shtml">why should schools be closed</a>?”</p>
<h2>Health minister was fired</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro has opposed his own Ministry of Health’s policies regarding social isolation — so much so that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-luiz-henrique-mandetta-health-minister/2020/04/16/c143a8b0-7fe0-11ea-84c2-0792d8591911_story.html">he fired Minister of Health Luiz Henrique Mandetta on April 16</a>. The final straw came after Mandetta criticized Bolsonaro when the president visited a hospital near Brasilia, but then went outside, walked among a crowd without his mask, shook hands and signed autographs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328853/original/file-20200418-152585-36y9ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A graffiti of Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro wearing a protective mask in Rio de Janeiro.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bolsonaro, 65, said if he were infected, he would not feel anything, or he would feel symptoms similar to “<a href="https://youtu.be/Vl_DYb-XaAE">a little flu.</a>” He has played up the fact that people under the age 40 are less likely to die from COVID-19, telling Brailizians that 90 per cent of “us” would not have any symptoms even if “we” were infected. </p>
<p>Brazilians should be careful not to spread the virus to “our” parents and grandparents, he conceded. If some people die, such as his mother, who is more than 90 years old, then he would say: “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/brazils-bolsonaro-questions-coronavirus-deaths-says-sorry-some-will-die-idUSKBN21E3IZ">I’m sorry … that’s life</a>.”</p>
<p>The main reason why Bolsonaro thinks the elderly and people with high-risk conditions can be sacrificed for the sake of the economy is that Brazil cannot afford an increase in <a href="https://g1.globo.com/fantastico/noticia/2020/03/29/bolsonaro-passeia-por-brasilia-um-dia-apos-ministro-da-saude-defender-isolamento-social.ghtml">unemployment, poverty and hunger</a>.</p>
<p>Being suddenly concerned about Brazilians’ poor and unemployed is something new for the neoliberal populist president. He has been more concerned about the conservatives who support his government — including conservative Catholics and evangelicals. Bolsonaro has promised to increase Brazil’s GDP, but has also backed policies favoured by his conservatives base, such as opposing gender recognition and the legalization of abortion. </p>
<h2>Why are some considered disposable?</h2>
<p>If we follow Bolsonaro’s rationale, some groups should be considered disposable, particularly the very old and unhealthy people with high-risk conditions. But this eugenic view is absurd: emerging data from affected countries show that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/">healthy young and middle-aged people are not spared by COVID-19</a>, and many <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/young-people-are-not-immune-coronavirus/608794/">end up in intensive care</a>. While Bolsonaro strongly opposes abortion, old people’s deaths from COVID-19 seem to be quite acceptable. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328854/original/file-20200418-152602-lvxukm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bolsonaro dines with U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in March 2020. It was later learned that Trump was exposed to COVID-19 during this meeting because an official in Bolsonaro’s entourage had the disease.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bolsonaro, a former army captain, was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/28/americas/brazil-election/index.html">elected in 2018 with a strong majority</a> after campaigning as a “defender of freedom.” He has often been described as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/us/politics/bolsonaro-trump.html">the South American version of Donald Trump</a>, but his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/21/bolsonaro-brazil-military-dictatorship-violence#maincontent">anti-democracy views</a> have made him a political outcast. In the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, he appeared at a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/brazil-bolsonaro-joins-protest-coronavirus-curbs-200420042616860.html">public rally where right-wing protesters were calling for an end to stay-at-home orders and a return to military rule</a> for the country that was a military dictatorship from 1964-85.</p>
<h2>Anti-China theories</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro has been guided by Trump’s anti-China theories about the coronavirus, presented in Washington, D.C., and Mar-a-Lago, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/12/trump-florida-meeting-brazil-official-now-has-coronavirus/5031802002/">where the two presidents met in March</a>. Relations between China and Brazil have been strained — especially after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/china-outraged-after-brazil-minister-suggests-covid-19-is-part-of-plan-for-world-domination">one of Bolsonaro’s cabinet ministers said in a tweet</a> the coronavirus pandemic was part of Beijing’s “plan for world domination.”</p>
<p>Bolsonaro’s contrarian views about the pandemic have been questioned by Brazil’s governors and municipal leaders, as well as physicians and other experts. The vast majority of Brazilians have been following the World Health Organization’s recommendations of physical distancing — <a href="https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/11930-organized-crime-enforcing-quarantine-in-brazilian-favelas">even criminal organizations in favelas</a>.</p>
<p>A coalition against Bolsonaro has been coming together, made up of ministers, governors, judges, senior civil servants, experts, journalists and citizens. This show of solidarity indicates most Brazilians are willing to pay a heavy socio-economic price for the protection of people’s lives. </p>
<p>But when this moment ends, what will Brazilians do? More than 55 per cent of voters backed him in 2018, but his <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/bolsonaro-faces-his-biggest-crisis-and-struggling">popularity was dropping</a> even before the coronavirus outbreak. Will they approve of Bolsonaro’s example of trying to conduct “business as usual” during the pandemic for the sake of the economy, or will a new movement emerge that tries to address the country’s abject inequality? The crisis facing Brazil may be the perfect time to rethink and rebuild the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruno Dupeyron received funding from SSHRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catarina Segatto received funding from CAPES and JSGSPP. She is affiliated with Centro de Estudos em Administração Pública e Governo.</span></em></p>Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been called the South American version of Donald Trump. His behaviour during the coronavirus pandemic shows why.Bruno Dupeyron, Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of ReginaCatarina Segatto, Visiting Professor, Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1351472020-04-20T18:05:13Z2020-04-20T18:05:13ZCoronavirus closes in on Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh’s cramped, unprepared camps<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328758/original/file-20200417-152576-ayk5eh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C34%2C5760%2C3794&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nary a mask in sight at a market area in Bangladesh's Kutupalong refugee camp for Rohingya, Ukhia, March 24, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rohingya-refugees-without-wearing-any-mask-or-any-other-news-photo/1208086753?adppopup=true">Suzauddin Rubel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coronavirus is spreading <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html">quickly</a> in <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/fears-grow-bangladeshs-covid-19-response-200323111803294.html">densely populated Bangladesh</a>, despite a <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/covid-19-bangladesh-extends-shutdown-until-april-11/1786610">nationwide shutdown put in place a month ago</a>. </p>
<p>This preventive measure <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-dense-bangladesh-social-distancing-tough-task-200320103733470.html">has proven challenging to implement</a> due to lack of awareness of the coronavirus and the absence of a social safety net. Extreme poverty also forces many Bangladeshis to keep working and looking for food despite the risks. Bangladesh had <a href="https://www.banglanews24.com/">2,948 confirmed COVID-19 cases</a> as of April 20.</p>
<p>The disease has not yet spread into the refugee camps that house the Rohingya Muslims who fled ethnic violence in Myanmar in 2017, according to a recent update from <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_5_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">the humanitarian organizations that work in the camps</a>. But an outbreak <a href="https://time.com/5814952/rohingya-refugees-coronavirus-bangladesh/">in the overcrowded camps is almost certain to come</a> eventually – and when it does, <a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2020/04/no-space-social-distancing-rohingya-refugee-camps/">experts say</a>, the damage could be severe.</p>
<h2>Crisis response in the camps</h2>
<p>Even in normal times people in refugee camps often struggle to survive, living as they do with <a href="http://reporting.unhcr.org/sites/default/files/UNHCR%20Brochure%20on%20Underfunded%20Situations%20-%20September%202018.pdf#_ga=2.84854302.640090143.1586929225-1501254923.1585302690">minimal resources, food and housing</a>. I saw this <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/09/rohingya-refugees-bangladeshs-infamous-monsoon-story-survival/">grim reality</a> with my own eyes when I visited the <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh">Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh</a> – my home country – in 2017 and 2018. </p>
<p>Many of the Rohingya I met in the Kutupalong and Balukhali camps had seen family members murdered and tortured. Most had experienced or borne witness to rape and had their houses burned down. </p>
<p>The Myanmar military’s violent 2017 assault on this Muslim minority was later declared a “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2017/09/564622-un-human-rights-chief-points-textbook-example-ethnic-cleansing-myanmar#.WfJRrltSy70">textbook example of ethnic cleansing</a>” by the United Nations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327063/original/file-20200410-46372-16f5noh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Kutupalong refugee camp during monsoon season, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Saleh Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The nearly 1 million traumatized Rohingya who migrated to neighboring Bangladesh now live in <a href="http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/MYANMAR-ROHINGYA/010051VB46G/index.html">cramped, makeshift housing</a> in <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/09/rohingya-refugees-bangladeshs-infamous-monsoon-story-survival/">the country’s southeast</a>, near the border with Myanmar. In the camp areas, the basic hygiene that is essential for preventing the spread of the disease is simply impossible. </p>
<p>On average, four to five Rohingyas live together in a one-room hut, which is often constructed of tarpaulin sheets and bamboo sticks. Their floors, where they sleep on plastic cloth or paper, are usually muddy. Water supply, sanitation and sewage facilities are terribly <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6220352/">inadequate</a>.</p>
<p>The camps, which have an <a href="https://apnews.com/5bf8d0ce6f3ff0e2746317ba372d0999">average density of 103,600 people per square mile</a> – far denser than <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/boroughs/manhattan-population">Manhattan</a> – are a breeding ground for disease. Since 2017 <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/04/11/711743116/chickenpox-the-latest-burden-for-the-rohingya-refugees">cholera, chicken pox</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/26/1/tay122/5166712">diphtheria</a> have broken out in the camp areas.</p>
<h2>Preventive measures</h2>
<p>The Bangladesh government, national aid groups and international agencies, including the United Nations, are trying to <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_4_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">equip the refugee camps for the coming COVID-19 pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Nearly <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/stories/2020/3/5e7b57e90/unhcr-seeks-us255-million-respond-covid-19-outbreak.html">6,000 hand-washing stations have been installed</a> since March, and some 9,000 shared bathing facilities and toilets disinfected. Half a million bars of soap have gone out at the distribution centers where residents get their food and household supplies, according to <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_4_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">humanitarian groups that work in the camps</a>. </p>
<p>Aid organizations are also starting to get face masks to residents. Some <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_4_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">10,000 cloth face coverings have been sewn so far</a>. </p>
<p>Despite these efforts, soaps, face masks and hand sanitizer remain <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/rohingya-refugees-brace-for-potential-coronavirus-outbreak/">out of reach</a> for many Rohingya. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328771/original/file-20200417-152558-8bwqs2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rohingya refugee children in a makeshift house at Kutupalong refugee camp, Ukhia, Sept. 12, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rohingya-refugee-children-look-out-from-their-makeshift-news-photo/1167514707?adppopup=true">Munir Uz Zaman/AFP via Getty Images)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To ensure that the refugees understand the threat of COVID-19 and know how to protect against it, the World Health Organization recently conducted a <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_4_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">training on infection control</a> for staff in all clinics and facilities serving in Rohingya camp areas. Personal hygiene conversations are already happening along with soap distribution.</p>
<p>Soon more than 1,400 trained health work volunteers will be doing education and outreach with refugees in the camps regarding the need for hand-washing, social distancing and other preventive measures. </p>
<h2>Faith and health</h2>
<p>But reports from the camp suggest that some Rohingya are ignoring this advice, relying instead on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/18.1.76">traditional medicines and spiritual guidance</a> of folk healers. Back in Myanmar, the Rohingya were politically and geographically <a href="https://theconversation.com/between-the-devil-and-the-deep-blue-sea-the-rohingyas-dilemma-42359">marginalized</a>. Most would have had little to no experience with public health prior to arrival at the camp.</p>
<p>Effectively <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/risk-communication-and-community-engagement">engaging a marginalized community like the Rohingya in a coronavirus response</a> will require camp authorities to deliver information in a locally relevant, <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-04-16/rohingya-women-are-traditionally-kept-out-leadership-roles-will-coronavirus">culturally sensitive</a> fashion. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328767/original/file-20200417-152614-1jkef9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rohingya refugees pray in a mosque at Kutupalong refugee camp, Ukhia, Bangladesh, March 24, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-picture-taken-on-march-24-muslim-rohingya-refugees-news-photo/1208243791?adppopup=true">Suzauddin Rubel/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>History suggests that means working more closely with refugees themselves, as well as with local religious leaders and folk healers. During the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/local-faith-leaders-halt-spread-ebola-drc-191117111929385.html">faith leaders played a critical part</a> in reaching one of the most hard-to-reach Pygmy communities. </p>
<p>Even if widely embraced, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/rohingya-refugees-brace-for-potential-coronavirus-outbreak/">social distancing will prove difficult in the refugee camps</a>. To get food, people must go to central distribution areas. Bathrooms are often shared. Poverty effectively prevents commerce from closing down entirely. </p>
<p>For now, fear about the coming COVID-19 outbreak is spreading among the Rohingya. One night in late March, when people in the camps were sleepless with anxiety, <a href="https://time.com/5814952/rohingya-refugees-coronavirus-bangladesh/">Time magazine reports</a>, prayers were chanted at midnight as imams and the faithful sought God’s protection. </p>
<h2>Working urgently</h2>
<p>With very limited resources, the humanitarian agencies and local government are <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_5_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">working together closely to address urgent shortages in the camps</a>.</p>
<p>Bangaldesh’s refugee relief and repatriation commissioner, Mahbub Alam Talukder, says there are <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/coronavirus-fear-grips-rohingya-camps-in-bangladesh/1764588">“sufficient” coronavirus testing kits for Rohingya camps</a>. Efforts are underway to <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/final_coxs_bazar_update_5_-_covid19_preparedness_and_response.pdf">ready up to 1,900 hospital beds across Cox’s Bazar</a>, the Bangladeshi port city that is home to about 2 million locals and 1 million Rohingya refugees.</p>
<p>As of April 6, however, Save the Children – one of the aid organizations serving the camps – reported that the city had <a href="https://www.savethechildren.org/us/about-us/media-and-news/2020-press-releases/bangladesh-has-less-than-2000-ventilators-for-entire-population">not a single ventilator</a>. In all of Bangladesh, there are just 1,169 intensive care beds with ventilators, <a href="https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2020/04/01/preparing-ventilation-facilities-did-the-crisis-get-proper-government-attention">according to the Dhaka Tribune newspaper</a> – roughly one for every 93,000 people. </p>
<p>“It is difficult for Bangladesh to meet the expected surge in demand for ventilators,” said Dr. Shamim Jahan, Bangladesh deputy director for Save the Children, in a press release. </p>
<p>Jahan is calling for international assistance to “avert a humanitarian disaster” in the refugee camps, “[N]o single country can confront COVID-19 alone.”</p>
<p><em>Pradipto Vaskar Rakshit, an education specialist working at the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps in Bangladesh, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saleh Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COVID-19 is spreading quickly in Bangladesh. An outbreak in the refugee camps that house some 1 million Rohingya Muslims in cramped, unsanitary quarters would be calamitous.Saleh Ahmed, Assistant Professor, School of Public Service, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.