tag:theconversation.com,2011:/ca-fr/topics/one-nation-31937/articlesOne Nation – La Conversation2023-04-01T10:00:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2027162023-04-01T10:00:40Z2023-04-01T10:00:40ZLabor wins Aston byelection; NSW election and Trump polling updates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518840/original/file-20230401-26-4p60v9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Morgan Hancock/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 44% of enrolled voters counted in today’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/aston-by-election-2023">Aston federal byelection</a>, the ABC has Labor expected to win by 53.4-46.6 over the Liberals, a 6.3% swing to Labor from the 2022 general election. This includes ordinary election day votes only, no pre-polls or postals.</p>
<p>Labor is very likely to win Aston, but I will update this article tomorrow morning when the pre-polls and most postals have been counted. At the NSW election last week, Labor greatly underpeformed their election day votes on pre-polls.</p>
<p><strong>Update:</strong> The pre-poll booths are in on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/aston-by-election-2023/swing-table">primary votes</a>, and there are swings against the Liberals in all three. This confirms that Labor will gain Aston from the Liberals.</p>
<p>Labor gaining Aston is only the second time a government has gained an opposition-held seat at a federal byelection – the first time was in 1920. Labor had performed badly in previous byelections during the early years of the Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd governments.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-likely-to-win-aston-byelection-voice-support-increases-in-essential-poll-199395">Liberals likely to win Aston byelection; Voice support increases in Essential poll</a>
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<p>Labor is currently polling honeymoon levels of support, and this explains the strong Aston result. The next federal election is still about two years away, and by then Labor may not be polling so well. This byelection is not predictive of the next election result.</p>
<p>However, the byelection is a terrible result for the Liberals and their leader, Peter Dutton. It will put him under pressure to keep his job.</p>
<h2>Labor won’t win a NSW election majority</h2>
<p>The New South Wales state election was held on March 31. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/results?filter=all&sort=latest">ABC is now calling</a> 45 of the 93 lower house seats for Labor, 35 for the Coalition, three Greens and nine independents.</p>
<p>The large count of postals today confirmed that the Coalition would retain the three seats they looked likely to win as of Wednesday’s article: Terrigal, Goulburn and Holsworthy. Only one seat remains in doubt: <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/ryde">Ryde</a>, where the Liberals took a small lead on today’s postals, but Labor could regain the lead.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-labor-unlikely-to-win-majority-after-flopping-on-pre-poll-votes-202715">NSW Labor unlikely to win majority after flopping on pre-poll votes</a>
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<p>Even if Labor wins Ryde, they would finish with 46 of the 93 seats, one short of the 47 needed for a majority. As I wrote Wednesday, Labor will still form the next NSW government. </p>
<p>As the combined vote share for the major parties declines and the number of seats won by non-major party candidates increases, hung parliaments where one major party has at least a few more seats than the other, but is short of a majority, will become more common.</p>
<p>Postal votes from today’s counting have not yet been added to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/lc-results">upper house count</a>. These votes will assist the Coalition in their attempt to win seven upper house seats, but late counting of absents and new enrolment votes may bring Animal Justice back into contention for the final upper house seat.</p>
<p>NSW One Nation leader Mark Latham made a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/mark-latham-under-fire-alex-greenwich-offensive-tweet/102166530">homophobic and sexually crass tweet</a> on Thursday. At this election, One Nation were expected to at least match the two upper house seats <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election">they won in 2019</a>, but have only won one seat after their vote dropped 1.2% from 2019.</p>
<p>Owing to half of the upper house being elected every four years for eight-year terms, One Nation will have three total upper house seats, but would have expected four.</p>
<h2>Trump indicted, but Republican primary polls are swinging in his favour</h2>
<p>Former US president Donald Trump <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/us-grand-jury-votes-to-indict-trump/102169494">was indicted</a> on Thursday (Friday AEDT) over hush money payments made to a porn star before the 2016 election.</p>
<p>Republican primaries to select their nominee to contest the November 2024 general election start in early 2024. There is disagreement over the size of Trump’s lead, with recent polls rated B+ or better by <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/">FiveThirtyEight</a> giving Trump between a five-point and a 30-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when other candidates are included.</p>
<p>It’s very likely that either Trump or DeSantis will be the Republican nominee, as no other potential Republican candidate polls higher than mid single digits.</p>
<p>While the polls disagree on the current size of Trump’s lead, they agree there’s been a recent swing to Trump. A Fox News poll had Trump by 15 points in February, and it now gives Trump a 30-point lead. A Quinnipiac poll gave Trump an eight-point lead in February; now Trump leads by 14.</p>
<p>On the Democratic side, there has so far been no credible challenge to incumbent President Joe Biden.</p>
<p>If Trump is the Republican nominee, he has a good chance of defeating Biden. Biden’s disapproval rating has been higher than 50% in the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight aggregate</a> since October 2021. He will be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden">almost 82</a> by the November 2024 election, while Trump will be 78.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202716/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor is set to win the once-safe Liberal seat of Aston in Melbourne’s outer east, a disastrous result for the Liberals and Peter Dutton.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837222022-05-25T05:49:23Z2022-05-25T05:49:23ZClive Palmer and One Nation flopped at the election. What happened?<p>Many commentators tipped Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to perform well this election by scooping up the “freedom” and anti-vax vote from voters angry about how the pandemic was handled.</p>
<p>But this wasn’t the case. </p>
<p>The parties did see a modest rise in their vote, but not enough to translate into significant electoral success. Neither party won any seats in the lower house. </p>
<p>UAP candidate Ralph Babet is likely to <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/24/meet-ralph-babet-clive-palmer-acolyte-and-maybe-victorias-newest-senator/">pick up Victoria’s sixth Senate seat</a> – in part thanks to preferences from the Coalition, who put UAP second on their how to vote cards in the state. But this may be all Palmer gets for his obscene campaign spending.</p>
<p>UAP leader and former Liberal MP Craig Kelly lost his seat of Hughes, and Palmer failed in his bid for a Queensland Senate spot.</p>
<p>One Nation also failed to pick up any extra Senate seats. Pauline Hanson is projected to hold onto her Senate seat, only just, while Malcolm Roberts continues as a Senator having earned a six year term in the 2019 federal election.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-and-the-federal-election-what-can-we-expect-from-hanson-palmer-lambie-and-katter-179567">populism researcher</a>, I’ve taken a keen interest in these minor parties. Here’s why I think they did so badly.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">What actually is populism? And why does it have a bad reputation?</a>
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<h2>United Australia Party</h2>
<p>UAP garnered about an extra 0.7% of the national primary lower house vote compared to 2019 (for a total of 4.1%), after spending an estimated A<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">$70</a>-<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/clive-palmers-massive-advertising-spend-fails-to-translate-into-electoral-success">$100 million</a>. In Queensland the party has thus far secured just 4.3% <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/palmer-and-hanson-fight-it-out-for-last-qld-senate-seat-20220522-p5angz">of the Senate vote</a> – and this is where Palmer himself was the lead Senate candidate.</p>
<p>While in 2019, the party didn’t have much of a platform outside of being anti-Bill Shorten, this wasn’t the case in 2022. They had visible policies on cost-of-living, such as housing affordability and investing Australian superannuation funds in Australian companies.</p>
<p>The party also tried to position itself as the voice of the “freedom” movement, opposing COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates.</p>
<p>The fact that none of this seemed to resonate – particularly their interest rate policies – surprises me.</p>
<p>I expected the party’s populist, anti-major party, “freedom” agenda to resonate in some parts of the country. For example, many predicted UAP would <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/palmer-s-people-why-the-united-australia-party-will-do-particularly-well-in-victoria-20220427-p5aghd.html">poll well in the outer suburbs of Melbourne</a> where there’s high levels of anti-lockdown and anti-Dan Andrews sentiment.</p>
<p>While it did poll better than it has before in some of these areas, it didn’t translate into electoral success, nor make much of a dint in preferences as it did last election.</p>
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<h2>One Nation</h2>
<p>One Nation struggled despite fielding candidates in <a href="https://theconversation.com/race-for-the-senate-could-labor-and-the-greens-gain-control-181350">149</a> of 151 House of Representatives seats.</p>
<p>The party’s national primary lower house vote increased a bit – up about 1.8% to 4.9% – but this was mostly because it ran in many more seats than last election.</p>
<p>Early in the Senate vote count it looked like Hanson might lose her Senate seat, but now she’s <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/hanson-tipped-to-triumph-over-cannabis-candidate/news-story/1a17b8e14bb942c19b07c671b75b7d68">projected to just hold on</a>.</p>
<p>She faced fierce competition from Palmer, former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman, and a relatively unknown minor party called <a href="https://theconversation.com/legalise-cannabis-australia-did-well-at-the-ballot-box-but-reform-is-most-likely-to-come-from-a-cautious-approach-183612">Legalise Cannabis Australia</a>. Hanson is very well known – particularly in Queensland – so it was also surprising to see her fighting for her political life against a little known party.</p>
<h2>6 reasons why UAP and One Nation flopped</h2>
<p>So why did both parties fail to perform as well as some thought they might? Here are some of the key reasons:</p>
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<li><p>They were competing for the same small segment of the electorate. Both are populist right parties, they tried to brand themselves as the parties of the “freedom” movement, and likely took votes off each other in the process.</p></li>
<li><p>They were also competing for votes against the right wing of the Coalition, some of whose candidates share very similar views in terms of sentiments regarding immigration and vaccination mandates. </p></li>
<li><p>The wind has been taken out of the sails of the “freedom” movement. Since lockdowns finished and almost all COVID restrictions have been phased out, the cause is not as urgent. This freedom banner brought together disparate groups – spanning from the far-right to “wellness” and alternative health groups – but the links between the groups were always tenuous. Now the shared enemy of lockdowns has disappeared, there doesn’t seem to be social, class or political linkages holding them together. If this election was held last year – or even a few months ago – both parties might’ve had more success.</p></li>
<li><p>Populists often campaign against the “corruption” of the ruling classes. However, it was hard for UAP or One Nation to get much traction on this as almost every non-Coalition party or candidate – from Labor, to the Greens to the teal independents – was also campaigning on the same issue.</p></li>
<li><p>One Nation’s anti-immigration stance is one of its key policies. The fact that Australia had barely any immigration since the beginning of the pandemic made campaigning on the party’s bread-and-butter issue very difficult.</p></li>
<li><p>There’s been a lot of talk about parties using “<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-election-ad-spending-for-4-000-facebook-pages-heres-what-theyre-posting-about-and-why-cybersecurity-is-the-bigger-concern-182286">microtargeting</a>” in this election, but UAP’s strategy was the opposite. Their mass advertising and huge billboards were the modern equivalent to throwing a bunch of leaflets out of a moving plane. This election suggests this doesn’t work – you can’t just bombard people.</p></li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">Is this the end of the two-party system in Australia? The Greens, teals and others shock the major parties</a>
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<p>None of this means we should write UAP or One Nation off for good. Hanson has proven herself a mainstay of Australian politics, and returned from the political wilderness before. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Palmer has now contested three separate federal elections – each time, seemingly with a completely different platform. With his deep pockets, who knows whether or what he will run on in 2025.</p>
<p>This federal election, however, was not a “populist moment” for these parties. The real story in 2022 is not on the right, but on the other side of politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>An expert on populism gives 6 reasons why these minor parties failed to gain electoral success.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1828562022-05-22T06:40:41Z2022-05-22T06:40:41ZNationals vote holds steady. Will the Coalition become a party of the regions and outer suburbs?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464650/original/file-20220522-29403-1akrty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The most amazing thing about the election was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">very low primary vote</a> for the ALP and the Liberal Party. </p>
<p>The Liberal Party has lost seats to both Labor and the “teal” independents. </p>
<p>But the National Party has lost no seats (although Flynn is still very close) and its vote has declined only marginally. The problem with calculating swings for or against the Nationals is that candidates in Queensland stand for the Liberal National Party and then choose membership of either the Liberal or Nationals party room. </p>
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<p>So the result for the Nationals has been very much steady state with essentially no real change since the previous election. This isn’t necessarily surprising as the ALP struggles to achieve 20% of the vote in many rural electorates.</p>
<p>If there’s to be a significant challenge to a National incumbent then it needs to come from either a minor party, as has happened in two seats in the New South Wales parliament with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF), or from a high profile independent. </p>
<p>At the 2022 election there were a number of independents in National seats, but none had sufficient votes to make a significant challenge. This is not surprising as most National electorates are geographically very large and independents invariably have a power base in only part of the electorate.</p>
<h2>Minor parties flop</h2>
<p>As for the various minor parties – SFF, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) and the United Australia Party (UAP) – none have performed very well at this election.</p>
<p>The PHON vote went up overall as the party ran candidates in more electorates than 2019. However, in those electorates where PHON had run previously its vote tended to decline, especially in Queensland. </p>
<p>Despite its massive campaigning the UAP vote stayed under 5%. It made no real impact. </p>
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<h2>Coalition holds onto regional and rural seats</h2>
<p>One thing worth noting is the Nationals performed well in Victoria, with a slight increase in its primary vote. There was a swing to the Nationals in both Gippsland and Mallee. </p>
<p>When one looks at the rest of Australia, the Liberals successfully held onto their rural seats in both South Australia (Barker and Grey) and Western Australia (O’Connor, Forrest and Durack). If one then looks at Tasmania, which is largely regional in nature, there has been a swing of around 2% to the Liberals.</p>
<p>There are some interesting implications in these election results. The first is that the balance between the Nationals and the Liberals in the Coalition has changed, so that in any future arrangement, the Nationals will have a more prominent voice. This assumes, of course, that the coalition continues now that both parties are in opposition. </p>
<p>The second is the Liberals have been far more successful in rural and regional Australia than in the cities. This will also shift the balance for the Liberals between city and country, in favour of the country.</p>
<p>At the same time, the largest contingent of Coalition members in the parliament will come from Queensland and the Liberal Party may well be led by a Queenslander. </p>
<p>The Liberals now largely represent outer suburban and regional Australia. This is where its strength lies. It will need to decide on its future strategy. Does it seek to rebuild the Howard “broad church” by attempting to win back the seats lost to the teal independents, or does it attempt to remake itself more explicitly as a regional/outer suburban party? </p>
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<h2>City and bush divide</h2>
<p>This election seems to indicate a major division opening up between the city and the bush. This coincides with a siloing of the population, such that the affluent increasingly do not rub shoulders with the less well off.</p>
<p>Labor will not make any inroads into the bush in the foreseeable future, beyond the regional seats it already holds such as Bendigo and Ballarat.</p>
<p>The Liberals may have to look at waving goodbye to what it once considered to be its “blue ribbon” seats. This election may indicate Australians are not moving closer together but further part.</p>
<p>Perhaps Australia is approaching a crossroads.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council.. </span></em></p>This election seems to indicate a major division opening up between the city and the bush.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795672022-04-11T19:57:26Z2022-04-11T19:57:26ZPopulism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?<p>Populist politicians have been household names in Australian politics over the past decade, from Pauline Hanson to Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>They tend to only get a small amount of the popular vote – between them, at the last election, they attracted 7% of first preferences in the House of Representatives and 8.32% of the Senate vote. Yet they can play a big role on the Senate crossbench and can get significant concessions regarding their pet issues.</p>
<p>They can also change the tenor of politics in Australia, and the way their preferences fall - or how they spend their advertising dollars - can make or break close electoral races.</p>
<p>But where do these populist parties – who all <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">claim to speak for “the people” against “the elite”</a> – sit as we begin the 2022 federal election? </p>
<h2>Who are the main players to watch out for?</h2>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Jacqui Lambie Network are all fielding candidates in the upper and lower house elections. </p>
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<img alt="Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie in the senate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie say on senate crossbench together during the last parliament.</span>
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<p>In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, two of these parties have sought to capitalise on anti-vaccination and anti-COVID vaccine mandate sentiments. </p>
<p>The United Australia Party has made this its core - maybe even single - issue. As you have surely seen on those yellow billboards, the party is promising “freedom” from the COVID restrictions and mandates of the past years. Meanwhile, party leader (and former Liberal MP) <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-craig-kellys-defection-leaves-government-with-razor-thin-majority-155897">Craig Kelly</a> spruiks <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013587.pub2/full">hydroxychloroquine</a>) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-a-nobel-prize-winning-wonder-drug-but-not-for-covid-19-168449">ivermectin</a> as COVID treatments, despite evidence showing they’re not effective.</p>
<p>He is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">tipped to spend</a> A$70 million on the campaign. In 2019, Palmer spent a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">record $84 million</a> without winning a seat, but claimed his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160">anti-Shorten ads</a> “shifted” voters away from Labor. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-spot-if-someone-is-trying-to-mislead-you-when-it-comes-to-science-138814">5 ways to spot if someone is trying to mislead you when it comes to science</a>
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<p>One Nation has also tried to capitalise on the anti-vaccination movement’s prominence. While it is pushing its usual anti-immigration talking points, it has supplemented these with anti-mandate messaging, with Hanson and senator Malcolm Roberts appearing at anti-vaccine rallies in Canberra.</p>
<p>The other two populist parties are relying on their regional appeal.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network is hoping to extend the former independent’s appeal more widely across Tasmania. The party’s message is all about making life better for the “underdog” – combining an anti-corruption message with campaigns for better healthcare, education and opportunities for young people and workers in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party, meanwhile, portrays on a division between “the people” of rural Australia (particularly Far North Queensland) and the distant “elite” of Canberra and the big cities. As usual, it will be focusing on regional development, agricultural subsidies and ensuring FNQ gets fair treatment.</p>
<h2>What has changed since 2019?</h2>
<p>Coronavirus has markedly shifted the political, social and economic landscape since the last federal election.</p>
<p>Australia’s closed borders for much of 2020 and 2021 has made the anti-immigration position of One Nation less salient and effective, so it is no wonder they have pivoted to an anti-COVID mandate position to try and extend their appeal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-curtains-for-clive-what-covid-means-for-populism-in-australia-153101">Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia </a>
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<p>Meanwhile, the United Australia Party has completely rebuilt itself around the issue, moving from its almost singularly “Stop Bill Shorten” message in 2019.</p>
<p>Beyond this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-role-of-the-public-service-130796">repeated rorts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-government-faces-battle-over-integrity-commission-it-doesnt-really-want-169473">integrity scandals</a> during the Morrison government have given fuel to populists (as well as numerous independent candidates) to push for more transparency in politics.</p>
<h2>What are the key races to watch?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer is vying to re-enter federal parliament as a Queensland senator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Other than Katter, who has held the seat of Kennedy since 1993, it is highly unlikely populist parties are going to have any success in the House of Representatives (despite the United Australia Party’s <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/fastest-growing-political-party-in-australian-history/">claim</a> Kelly will be the next prime minister). </p>
<p>The Senate is where things will be interesting. The Queensland senate race is the big one for populists, with the two most prominent populist politicians in the country - Hanson and Palmer - running for what will likely be the sixth seat in the state. They also face competition from former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (running for the Liberal Democrats this time around).</p>
<p>The final seat in some other states will also be worth watching. In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/from-lambies-loud-girl-to-ericmentum-tasmanias-fierce-senate-race-is-a-taste-of-whats-to-come">throwing its resources</a> behind the campaign of Tammy Tyrell, their lead Senate candidate. Tyrell is a long-time office manager and advisor to Lambie (who is not up for re-election this time). </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Senate contest could see either see Liberal Eric Abetz, Tyrell, the United Australia Party or newcomers the Local Party take the seat. There’s also a very slim (but possible) chance One Nation or United Australia Party could win the sixth seat in New South Wales and Western Australia.</p>
<h2>What are the key unknowns?</h2>
<p>There are two big questions about populism in 2022. </p>
<p>First, has the political potency of the anti-vaccination/anti-lockdown message passed? As we enter the so-called era of “COVID-normal”, where restrictions are wound back and lockdowns are supposedly a thing of the past, it is unclear whether the United Australia Party and One Nation have backed the right horse at the right time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bob Katter (pictured here with Pauline Hanson) has stepped down as leader of his party, but is re-contesting the seat he has held for almost 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Second, are voters sick of the mainstream parties, or sick of the Morrison government? Populists prosper when there is a widespread sense of political malaise, but time will tell if they want to punish the political class in general, thus leading to a populist upswing, or the Morrison government specifically – in which we can expect much of that frustration to filter to a vote for Labor and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-polling-shows-voters-prefer-albanese-for-pm-and-put-climate-issue-first-in-teal-battle-179839">“teal” independents</a>.</p>
<p>Whether this is going to be a good election for populist parties in Australia remains to be seen: stay tuned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer is back trying to win a Senate seat, while Jacqui Lambie is aiming to get a second senator elected.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790282022-03-13T19:16:43Z2022-03-13T19:16:43ZResearch shows voters favour financial relief after disasters, but we need climate action too<p>Within two months, Australians will vote in a federal election. It comes after a political term marked by major societal challenges, including catastrophic drought, bushfires and floods.</p>
<p>Such natural hazards are expected to become worse under climate change. So how does a person’s experience of disasters affect the way they vote?</p>
<p>This is the question I set out to answer in my <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1ejrV3Qu6uX-0X">new research</a> into the last federal election. I found when people experienced drought, they tended to place more importance on economic security, not environmental policies, in deciding how to vote.</p>
<p>Crucially, on election day this translated to more votes for micro-parties and fewer votes for the incumbent Coalition. The findings may provide insight into how the current floods in southeastern Australia will influence the next election. </p>
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<img alt="two men talk in dry field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451506/original/file-20220311-13-1eqg4ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison talking to a drought-affected farmer. Such voters often prioritise economic security.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan PeledAAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Cast your mind back</h2>
<p>Heading into the May 2019 election, much of Australia was gripped by heatwaves and drought. </p>
<p>The four months to April had been the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/archive/20190503.archive.shtml">hottest period</a> on record.
Dams were low and <a href="https://www.awe.gov.au/abares/products/insights/2018-drought-analysis">farmers</a> were barely getting by.</p>
<p>The parched Murray–Darling Basin had experienced mass <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">fish kills</a> and nationally, rainfall in Australia that year would be 40% below average, the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs70.pdf">lowest</a> on record.</p>
<p>In light of these conditions, political parties and candidates took drastically different drought strategies to the election.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens promised significant cuts to Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, to varying degrees. Labor also <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/about/national-platform">pledged</a> to promote renewable energy and offered farmers climate adaption programs, and the Greens <a href="https://greens.org.au/policies/agriculture">promised</a> to help farmers implement sustainable agricultural systems.</p>
<p>In contrast, the Liberal-National government largely <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/our-plan-supporting-far%20mers-drought">offered</a> economic relief for rural communities, rather than pledging to mitigate climate change and future drought.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/just-because-both-sides-support-drought-relief-doesnt-mean-its-right-121744">Just because both sides support drought relief, doesn’t mean it's right</a>
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<p>Various micro-parties largely favoured the Coalition’s compensation approach. But importantly, they also tended to advocate strongly for local measures. </p>
<p>For example, Katter’s Australian Party <a href="https://www.kap.org.au/project/financial-assistance-grants">agitated</a> for more money to local councils. One Nation <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/farming-and-water">said</a> Australia should withdraw from international climate agreements and advocated for greater local ownership of water resources.</p>
<p>Research shows a local experience of abnormal weather tends to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab466a">increase</a> public belief in climate change, as does <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02900-5">low rainfall</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.25">In some cases</a>, extreme weather events lead to support for “green” policies and politicians. And incumbent governments that fail to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0735-2166.2006.00258.x">prepare for or remedy</a> harm from disasters can do worse in elections.</p>
<p>But belief in climate change does not always translate into political support for climate action. For example, previous research has shown how after a natural disaster, voters in the United States <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990104">favour politicians</a> who offer disaster relief spending over those who invest in disaster preparedness.</p>
<p>I wanted to discover whether the same dynamic played out in Australia. Specifically, how did voters affected by drought in 2019 change their voting patterns compared with the drought-free 2016 election?</p>
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<img alt="man in hat stands behind counter with two women" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451523/original/file-20220311-17-9comfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In 2019, micro-party candidates such as Bob Katter promised voters economic relief and strong local advocacy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What I found</h2>
<p>My research drew on the Australian Election Study’s first ever <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.26193/C2QIYA">panel survey</a> of Australian voters. The study surveyed the same 968 participants after both the 2016 and 2019 elections. </p>
<p>By matching the participants’ postcodes with rainfall maps from the Bureau of Meteorology, I separated voters into those who were impacted by drought in 2019, and those who were not.</p>
<p>I found that if voters experienced drought, they placed more importance on the management of the economy and government debt when deciding how to vote. In addition, counter to my expectations, they placed less importance on the environment.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-tone-deaf-leadership-is-the-last-thing-traumatised-flood-victims-need-here-are-two-ways-he-can-do-better-178984">Scott Morrison's tone-deaf leadership is the last thing traumatised flood victims need. Here are two ways he can do better</a>
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<p>The Coalition is traditionally seen as better at economic management than other parties. And as the incumbents, the Coalition could credibly promise drought compensation and relief to Australians. </p>
<p>But this apparent advantage did not translate into voting patterns in 2019.</p>
<p>Compared with the 2016 election, the Coalition lost votes in drought-affected areas. I calculated that drought decreased first-preference vote share by 3% in the House of Representatives and 1.6% in the Senate, across 7,443 national polling places. </p>
<p>Support for local micro-parties in drought-exposed areas increased by almost 5%. Drought did not significantly impact the vote share of Labor or the Greens. </p>
<p>I looked for reasons, other than the drought, which might explain the trend.
These included a region’s employment profile and population density, climate scepticism, and rates of political disaffection such as the number of blank ballots cast. </p>
<p>But the voting patterns remained consistent across these variables.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="middle aged man and women walk holding hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451525/original/file-20220311-21-19k29gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A lot changed for the Liberal-Nationals between 2016 and 2019, including a fall in the party’s vote share in drought-affected areas. Pictured: Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce with then-wife Natalie in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balancing short and long horizons</h2>
<p>So while drought-hit voters at the 2019 election were worried about economic security, they did not reward the Coalition for its promises of economic relief. Instead, they favoured smaller parties that emphasised both economic security and strong local leadership. </p>
<p>Minor party support may indeed bring local economic benefits. For example, analysis <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/grants-with-ministerial-discretion/">has found</a> since 2013, electorates represented by independents or minor parties received the most per-capita funding from national grant programs with ministerial discretion.</p>
<p>My research suggests in the aftermath of a natural disaster, voters place higher importance on economic security than climate solutions.</p>
<p>Yet, prioritising relief and recovery, without disaster prevention and preparation, is highly detrimental in the long run.</p>
<p>Climate change threatens to supercharge both droughts and heavy rain which leads to floods. And as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-ipcc-report-shows-australia-is-at-real-risk-from-climate-change-with-impacts-worsening-future-risks-high-and-wide-ranging-adaptation-needed-176691">latest report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows, Australia is on the frontline of these worsening disasters.</p>
<p>So what does all this mean for politicians and parties wanting to tackle climate change?</p>
<p>My research suggests they should pursue policies that not only reduce emissions and protect Australians from the effects of an unstable climate, but bring immediate and tangible economic benefits.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-forecasts-wont-save-us-we-must-pre-empt-monster-floods-years-before-they-hit-178767">Weather forecasts won't save us – we must pre-empt monster floods years before they hit</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Melville-Rea is affiliated with independent think tank the Australia Institute. </span></em></p>The findings indicates natural disasters such as the current floods in southeastern Australia can influence election results.Hannah Melville-Rea, Research Fellow, Environmental Arts & Humanities, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1553262021-02-15T12:08:36Z2021-02-15T12:08:36ZPauline Hanson puts her foot down over government’s changes to the BOOT<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384242/original/file-20210215-21-bml0h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C23%2C3116%2C2047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/">Mick Tsikas/AAP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pauline Hanson has told the government it should drop its proposed watering down of the Better Off Overall Test (BOOT) if it wants One Nation to continue negotiations on the industrial relation legislation.</p>
<p>The government needs three of the five crossbench Senate votes to pass its legislation, which contains a raft of reforms. One Nation holds two votes.</p>
<p>In a letter to Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter delivered late Monday, Hanson said that while she and her party’s industrial relations spokesman Malcolm Roberts were available “for an open discussion” on reform, “it makes the task difficult if the Government maintains its plan to suspend the Better Off Overall Test for a further two years”.</p>
<p>“Therefore we strongly encourage you” to remove the relevant parts of the legislation “to continue the good faith negotiations and consideration of the Bill by One Nation Senators”.</p>
<p>Hanson wrote that One Nation had long supported improved and simplified IR legislation for small businesses and their more and 2.2 million workers.</p>
<p>But the bill in its current form was “inequitable and severely undermines the Better Off Overall Test (BOOT) that protects workers from the small number of deceitful employers,” she said.</p>
<p>Under the current BOOT, workers must be better off overall under a proposed enterprise agreement compared with the relevant modern award.</p>
<p>The legislation, now before parliament, proposes the BOOT would not have to be met if the Fair Work Commission decided this was appropriate given the impact of COVID on the enterprise.</p>
<p>The commission would also need to take into account the views of the workers, expressed in a vote. </p>
<p>The provision for suspending the BOOT would only apply to agreements made in the next two years, although the agreements themselves could run much longer.</p>
<p>The government has made it clear it will ditch its plan for the BOOT change if that is necessary to get its legislation through and has given every indication it expects to have to do so.</p>
<p>The Hanson demand may bring the argument about the BOOT to an early head, because there is also disquiet about the change among the other crossbenchers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155326/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pauline Hanson has told the government it will need to drop its proposed watering down of the BOOT if it wants One Nation support.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531012021-01-14T19:11:09Z2021-01-14T19:11:09ZIs it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378695/original/file-20210113-13-jrpbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What can we make of Clive Palmer? </p>
<p>This week, he announced his United Australia Party (UAP) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-10/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-not-contesting-wa-election/13046336">would not</a> contest the upcoming West Australian state election on March 13. </p>
<p>After a <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election-149076">dismal showing</a> in the October 2019 Queensland poll, where does this leave his political prospects?</p>
<h2>Palmer is no mini-Trump</h2>
<p>Given Palmer’s love of <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-for-the-55-million-question-what-does-clive-palmer-actually-want-116350">publicity stunts and populist policies</a>, one might be tempted to see him as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-has-a-trump-style-slogan-but-is-no-sure-bet-to-return-to-parliament-98544">miniature, Antipodean Donald Trump</a> — but that would be misleading. </p>
<p>Trump was able to garner <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/dec/08/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency">massive support</a> in segments of the American population, whereas Palmer’s UAP only managed 3.43% of <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm">first preference votes</a> in the lower house at the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>American-style populism does not resonate with large numbers of Australians. Australian political traditions are quite different to those of America especially in terms of welfare and health provision. Those who seek to take the populist route find it a hard road. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump supporters at Washington DC rally." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump won more than 70 million votes at the recent US presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Minchillo/AP/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 2019 election One Nation and United Australia combined only managed to win <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm">7.76% of the Senate vote</a>.</p>
<p>Given the small base on which the likes of Palmer and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson have to work, one wonders what they now hope to achieve. </p>
<h2>Australia’s populism culture</h2>
<p>The current situation with COVID-19 might provide a clue as to why they have failed to spark a populist surge in Australia. </p>
<p>Palmer’s major contribution to the COVID world was his <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">unsuccessful High Court challenge</a> to force Western Australia to open its borders.</p>
<p>The last 12 months has demonstrated the significance of “quarantine culture” in Australia, a term first coined by cultural historian <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/722661">John Williams</a> in the 1990s. </p>
<p>The natural instinct of Australians is to close borders against outside threats, be they national or state. The only partial exception to this rule at the moment is <a href="https://theconversation.com/vic-qld-and-nsw-are-managing-covid-outbreaks-in-their-own-ways-but-all-are-world-standard-152974">New South Wales</a> — the one part of Australia that had a vigorous free trade (or internationalist) political culture in the 19th century.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border challenge: why states, not courts, need to make the hard calls during health emergencies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In late 19th century and early 20th century Australia, writers such as WG Spence and magazines like The Bulletin talked about a desire to “protect” Australia against a harsh outside world and, if possible, limit the operation of international finance. The ideal was an Australia not dependent on the rest of the world.</p>
<p>In this regard, it is also worth recalling that one of the arguments often given for restricting Chinese immigration at the time was they were seen as <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/49261/39/09chapter7.pdf">carrying diseases</a> into Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-clive-palmer-must-now-ask-himself-would-chinas-bastards-buy-a-mine-from-him-152966">What Clive Palmer must now ask himself: would China's 'bastards' buy a mine from him?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This was a form of populism — but one quite different to the American version. It sought to protect Australia and Australians from the outside world, not to assert their right to liberty.</p>
<p>The COVID pandemic seems to have reignited this desire to protect Australians from an outside threat. The most remarkable aspect of this development has been the way in which this desire for protection has devolved to the state level.</p>
<p>Moves to close borders and institute quite draconian measures to halt the spread of the virus have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">generally popular</a>. Australians, it would seem, are more interested in being protected than they are in asserting their rights to do as they please.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for Palmer?</h2>
<p>This makes life quite difficult for someone such as Palmer, who has pushed for freedoms and border openings. </p>
<p>No wonder he has decided not to contest the WA state election. He is not in tune with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-21/wa-election-campaign-alp-focus-on-mark-mcgowan-popularity/12903860">popular mood</a>, which has strongly backed Labor Premier Mark McGowan’s hard border approach. It is not the time for libertarian populism.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer speaks to a near-empty press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palmer has said Premier Mark McGowan can ‘breathe easy’ as UAP will not contest the March election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>It is difficult to know how long this protectionist attitude will last. One suspects the <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-enters-2021-a-stronger-more-influential-power-and-australia-may-feel-the-squeeze-even-more-150943">current situation with China</a> has also fed into it. The mood is one of a threatening world.</p>
<h2>… and for Morrison?</h2>
<p>From here, two comments are worth making.</p>
<p>The first is political. Prime Minister Scott Morrison will need to cultivate this threatening mood if he is to succeed at the next federal election, which could be held as early as August. He will need to convince Australians he is the leader who will protect them most effectively. This means going slowly, slowly on things such as opening the international border.</p>
<p>The second is economic. Even in the 1890s, the Australian economy depended on international trade through the sale of wool. The idea Australia could operate independently of other countries was a fantasy. </p>
<p>The same is true today. The borders will need to re-open and <a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">students</a> and tourists let in.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison could call a federal election as early as August.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Morrison will have to perform a juggling act. He must appear to be providing protection even as he appreciates protection can only go so far.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the prospects look grim for populists such as Palmer and Hanson. </p>
<p>The prime minister and his coalition have the opportunity to steal many of their supporters. The pandemic shows that to be successful in Australian politics, leaders needs to pose as the protector of the people, not promise more freedom and more openness. </p>
<p>I suspect Morrison understands this very well.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">2021 is the year Australia's international student crisis really bites</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the academic advisory board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>Australia has its own populist tradition. Unlike the US, it is about protecting Australians from the outside world, not asserting their liberties.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490762020-11-01T06:06:26Z2020-11-01T06:06:26Z‘Three-peat Palaszczuk’: why Queenslanders swung behind Labor in historic election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366842/original/file-20201101-23-opsb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=243%2C0%2C4600%2C3103&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland’s state election was always going to deliver an outcome for the record books.</p>
<p>This was Australia’s first poll at state or federal level contested by <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-making-election-history-with-two-women-leaders-so-why-is-the-campaign-focused-on-men-148261">two female leaders</a>. It was also the first state general election conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Labor wins Queensland election, as Greens could win up to four seats</a>
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<p>Counting continues after <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/a-record-first-day-of-voting-sees-more-than-15-000-ballots-cast-per-hour-20201019-p566ky.html">record numbers of pre-poll</a> and postal votes, and a handful of seats remain in doubt. Regardless, the Labor government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">been returned</a> with what looks like an increased majority in a <a href="https://inqld.com.au/decision-2020/2020/10/31/palaszczuk-looks-headed-for-third-term-as-early-count-favours-government/">history-making third term</a> for Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.</p>
<p>This shores up her political stocks in the continued battle with federal and state governments over border closures. </p>
<h2>A tick of approval for Palaszczuk</h2>
<p>The election campaign was <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-queensland-campaign-passes-the-halfway-mark-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose-148267">run of the mill</a> in many ways. It wasn’t so much dominated by the pandemic as framed by aspects of it, such as <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-queensland-border-reopening-with-nsw-decision-expected-friday-ahead-of-state-election/20fb3b1a-463e-4442-999e-26aa82db5da1">borders</a> and plans for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-09/qld-gov-$1-billion-boost-education-state-election-campaign-2020/12732656">economic recovery</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk waving, claiming victory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is back for a third term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>But Queenslanders, by and large, appear to have given Palaszczuk’s government a tick of approval for its health and economic responses to coronavirus. Swings <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=all&sort=az">to the government</a> were recorded in most parts of the state, with some surprising shifts towards Labor in areas like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Sunshine Coast</a>.</p>
<p>The result <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">reinforces the theory</a> pandemic conditions favour incumbents and, similarly, the major parties. Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, who like Palaszczuk was a target of Coalition criticism over closed borders, will take heart ahead of a state election early next year.</p>
<p>However, this was not a straightforward repeat of recent election outcomes in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/nt-election-how-the-seats-fell-and-what-happens-now/12590840">Northern Territory</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-scores-its-sixth-act-election-victory-in-a-row-but-the-big-winners-are-the-greens-148259">ACT</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">New Zealand</a>. Rather, this election panned out in ways particular to Queensland’s regional diversity, but still with ramifications for outside the state.</p>
<h2>One Nation, Palmer barely register</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/qld-election-2020-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-flies-into-key-battleground-in-states-north/news-story/ffb92db7a47f1ba9eac93e18d4695675">expected battleground</a> over government-held marginal seats around Townsville and Cairns didn’t eventuate, with these seats holding firm against a concerted effort to get rid of Labor incumbents.</p>
<p>The LNP opposition’s pitch for a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-21/qld-election-2020-lnp-townsville-youth-curfew-crime-plan/12789276">crime crackdown</a>” in the state’s north and plans for a youth curfew didn’t resonate, as at the last state election in 2017. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-lnp-wants-a-curfew-for-kids-but-evidence-suggests-this-wont-reduce-crime-148529">Queensland's LNP wants a curfew for kids, but evidence suggests this won't reduce crime</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>The headline story of the election was a dramatic collapse in the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/queesland-election-2020-one-nation-and-clive-palmer-united-party-primary-votes-collapse/a17782e7-0303-4713-bf2e-a30fc47d46f6">One Nation vote</a>. The party nominated an unprecedented <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/who-will-make-up-queenslands-potentially-powerful-crossbench/12804898">90 candidates</a>, yet leader Pauline Hanson was <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/qld-election-please-explain-where-pauline-hanson-is/news-story/b499312b0043496c1de365b76b31977d">barely sighted</a> during the campaign. What messages did emerge from Hanson’s camp — largely criticisms of COVID-19 measures — didn’t wash with an electorate seeking leadership and protection through the crisis.</p>
<p>Notably, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party hardly registered, with <a href="https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020">about 0.6%</a> of the popular vote. This follows another big spend on often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/28/clive-palmer-pumps-46m-into-his-spoiler-political-party-ahead-of-queensland-election">misleading advertising</a>. The electorate may have woken up to Palmer’s “spoiler” agenda, with his investment perhaps only resulting in a push for stricter truth in political advertising rules. </p>
<p>There are now realistic doubts over the ability of either Palmer or Hanson to recover electorally from these setbacks. For its efforts, One Nation did hold on to its sole seat in north Queensland. Katter’s Australian Party, likewise, retained its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">three northern seats</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer walks away from a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party failed to pick up a single seat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The single biggest upset result — although widely expected —– came in South Brisbane, where Labor’s former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/qld-state-election-2020-jackie-trad-defeated-south-brisbane-seat/12832690">lost the seat</a> she’s held since 2012. A rise in Greens support in inner-Brisbane suburbs, as seen in other capital cities, was long viewed as a threat to Trad’s grip on the former Labor stronghold.</p>
<p>This result shows there are subtexts to this election result, and it is not all about the pandemic. For 30 years, Labor has often won state elections on its ability to hold onto “<a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-fails-to-crack-fortress-brisbane-20090322-geaxgn.html">fortress Brisbane</a>”. However, the party can’t take that position for granted now.</p>
<p>Even with the LNP’s continuing inability to bridge the Brisbane bulkhead, Labor can’t rest on its laurels after this win. Inner-Brisbane electorates like <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/coop">Cooper</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/mcco">McConnel</a> will be next targets for the Greens, whose support at this election was concentrated in the capital where they now hold two seats.</p>
<h2>On track to beat Beattie</h2>
<p>Palaszczuk is now the most successful female leader in Australian history, as the first to win three elections. If she serves the full four-year term, she’ll be Labor’s second-longest serving premier in this state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/qld-state-election-labor-wins-annastacia-palaszczuk-elected/12834982">surpassing Peter Beattie</a>. Labor by then will have governed Queensland for 30 of the past 35 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">Why this Queensland election is different — states are back at the forefront of political attention</a>
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<p>This win cements the premier’s authority in her party, which is particularly important when it <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/not-something-to-boast-of-scott-morrison-criticises-annastacia-palaszczuk-over-queensland-border-closures">comes to relations</a> between her administration and the federal government. Discussions over states border closures and other pandemic responses at the National Cabinet will be watched with renewed interest.</p>
<p>At the same time, the election result raises pressing questions for defeated Opposition Leader <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6206034337001">Deb Frecklington</a> and the LNP. After recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/deb-frecklington-facing-qld-lnp-leadership-fight-amid-civil-war/12353990">inner-party turmoil</a> agitating against Frecklington’s leadership, it’s expected there will be jostling for new party leadership.</p>
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<img alt="Queensland LNP leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington has signalled she wants to stay on as LNP leader, but may not get that chance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<p>As now seems <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-need-its-own-voice-canavan/news-story/4ea7e1b7ef4192e6f07b141eb58b842a">ritual after state elections</a>, calls are expected for the unsuccessful LNP to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12636">de-merge</a>. The often uneasy marriage of Queensland’s Liberals and Nationals — apparently at risk of a lurch to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/christian-soldiers-and-climate-deniers-inside-the-fight-for-control-of-the-queensland-lnp">arch-conservative right</a> — appears incapable of broadening its support in both the state’s capital and the far north simultaneously.</p>
<p>As the final results come in, they will continue to provide important lessons for both the federal Coalition, as well as federal Labor, in how best to appeal to Queensland’s varied constituency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Queensland’s result reinforces the theory that pandemic conditions favour incumbents. It also deals a blow for One Nation and Clive Palmer.Chris Salisbury, Research Assistant, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469262020-10-08T19:08:19Z2020-10-08T19:08:19ZRemember Quexit? 5 reasons you should not take your eyes off the Queensland election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362104/original/file-20201007-22-1uk52ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=395%2C0%2C3425%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland is stereotyped for its sunshine, beaches, lack of daylight saving, Bundy rum, <a href="https://theconversation.com/meter-maids-promotional-models-and-our-disturbingly-hypersexual-cities-56438">meter maids</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-29/meet-pauline-hansons-queensland-supporters/8220198">One Nation supporters</a>.</p>
<p>Many Australians have an ambivalent relationship with the state and don’t take <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48306122">its politics</a> that seriously. </p>
<p>But after Queensland “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes">lost</a>” the federal election for Labor last year, there are good reasons to care about the state election on October 31. </p>
<p>With the campaign <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/queensland-election-campaign-palaszczuk-quoting-newman/12735628">now officially underway</a>, this isn’t just another state poll, either. We outline five reasons why voters — and those beyond Queensland — should be paying close attention.</p>
<h2>1. Quexit was misguided</h2>
<p>Despite widespread predictions the Labor Party would win the May 2019 federal election, the Coalition had a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-result-2019-antony-green-calls-shock-victory/11126536">miracle</a>” victory, thanks – in part – to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>“How good’s Queensland?” Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/quexit-some-australians-want-to-ditch-queensland-after-election-result">exclaimed on election night</a>, with Liberal supporters chanting, “Queensland, Queensland” in reply. </p>
<p>But on social media, those disappointed with the election result wanted to <a href="https://junkee.com/blaming-queensland-election-australia/206236">cut Queensland loose</a> from the rest of the country. A “Quexit” hashtag started to trend. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129932497528037377"}"></div></p>
<p>The whole episode proved we need <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">a better understanding</a> of the needs and interests of all Australians. </p>
<p>Without checking Queensland’s temperature, we miss vital information that has a bearing on the whole country. For those watching along at home: you need to win Queensland to win federally. </p>
<h2>2. There is more than one Queensland</h2>
<p>To understand Queensland, we need to understand its diversity. This is the only state to have the majority of residents in rural or regional areas. So, it is not just about what happens in Brisbane. </p>
<p>As one example, Queensland’s largest electorate, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/greg/">Gregory</a>, covers about 460,000 square kilometres. So even within regional areas, the interests and issues are different. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Griffith University experts on the seats to watch in the 2020 Queensland election.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Queensland is also a state that experiences frequent <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">natural disasters</a>. This, coupled with economic reliance on beef, gold, sugar, coal and gas industries, can place disparate Queensland communities <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/wide-bay-unemployment-rises-as-coronavirus-takes-effect/12180646">on the edge</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2020 election, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAuHseoiclI&feature=youtu.be">top seats to watch</a> are around <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-04/qld-state-election-2020-townsville-seats-to-play-key-role/12721600">Townsville</a>, <a href="https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/regional/rockhampton-candidates-lock-horns-in-online-debate-tonight/news-story/a4985fac951b9f97a7e24901bd1bd341">Rockhampton</a> and the coast, with an eye on some inner-city Brisbane electorates and wild card seats, given the recent resignation of <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/three-ministers-quit-on-the-eve-of-the-state-election-what-does-it-mean-20200910-p55udk.html">three Labor ministers</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Pandemic politics</h2>
<p>While the Northern Territory went to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">polls in late August</a> and the ACT will vote on October 17, Queensland’s will be the most significant election in Australia since the start of COVID-19. </p>
<p>This will give us several clues about the impact coronavirus will have on campaigns and voting, which could affect future elections in Australia. </p>
<p>We are expecting postal votes will be significant in the October 31 decision, with an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/queensland-state-election-ecq-postal-vote-surge-explainer/12707198">estimated 600,000</a> Queenslanders predicted to vote this way. Many people are also expected to pre-poll to avoid the crowds. </p>
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<img alt="Hand holding a sausage, sauce and bread." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">COVID-19 has led to concerns about election day sausage sizzles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<p>This has significant ramifications on the campaign itself. When will political parties release their major policies, if huge chunks of the population have already voted well before polling day? With so many postal votes, will we have a result on election night? </p>
<p>We are also set to see a drop in door-knock campaigning, less reliance on paper how-to-vote cards and question marks over the election day <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/whether-queensland-democracy-sausages-sizzle-or-fizzle-depends-on-top-doc-20200715-p55ccy.html">democracy sausage</a>. What will this do to people’s engagement with the voting process? </p>
<p>The COVID crisis also means attention is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-15/coronavirus-queensland-annastacia-palaszczuk-election/12661670">essentially focused</a> on Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her challenger, LNP leader Deb Frecklington. This will increase the “presidential” nature of the contest, exacerbating an <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-presidential-politics">increasing trend</a> in Australian elections. </p>
<p>It is also worth noting, this is the first contest between two female leaders at a state or federal election in Australian history.</p>
<h2>4. What are the minor parties up to?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://medium.com/the-machinery-of-government/interesting-inconsistent-and-unpredictable-ca8dddfd91f0">preferences</a> of three minor parties — Katter’s Australian Party, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and <a href="https://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/6369299/politicians-jostling-for-nq-first/">North Queensland First</a> — are set to play an important role in battleground North Queensland seats.</p>
<p>With predictions of a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSCQ/videos/is-queensland-heading-for-a-hung-parliament/543503812985764/">hung parliament</a> and the importance of <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/preference-flows-out-the-window-as-minor-party-posturing-begins-20200924-p55yu6.html">preference flows</a>, we should be keeping a close eye on their campaigns. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-unpredictable-election-begins-expect-a-close-campaign-focused-on-3-questions-146927">Queensland's unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions</a>
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<p>The role of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party looks less certain. </p>
<p>Palmer’s Mineralogy company <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">donated almost $84 million</a> to the United Australia Party campaign in the last federal election. This was the biggest individual spending spree in Australian political history, resulting in a very visible campaign, without winning any seats. </p>
<p>However, Palmer still had an impact, with his <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/02/08/inside-palmers-campaign-thwart-labor/15810804009361">anti-Labor campaigning</a> perhaps partly responsible for swinging votes away from the ALP. </p>
<p>In this year’s state election, Palmer will be restricted by new <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">electoral spending caps</a>. But it’s the pattern of spending that is really interesting. </p>
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<img alt="United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s election spending will be capped this time around.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/ AAP</span></span>
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<p>Throughout the Queensland middle — the dry belts of land west of the Great Dividing range out to the fringes of the Channel Country — populist campaign messages dominate via bright <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/today/qld-olympics-why-pauline-hanson-has-branded-bid-irresponsible/0f749cff-516c-45a1-9ad8-e863b7248ba0">billboards</a>. </p>
<p>Their message may be simple — like the “Simon says” equivalent “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-election-clive-palmer-effects-a-1m-boost-to-war-chest/news-story/65e10bc831cf9f19c20a62533bcb03a4">Clive says… give Labor THE BOOT</a>” — but they are also targeted. In many cases, they are the only messaging (and real political attention) these regions receive. </p>
<h2>5. Tough questions that go beyond Queensland</h2>
<p>Queensland is dealing with its fair share of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-08/queensland-analysis-lnp-pledges-youth-crime-crackdown/12429720">local issues</a>. But it is also grappling with policy questions that resonate around the country. </p>
<p>These include how to recover from the <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-debt-expected-to-soar-as-state-spends-its-way-out-of-recession-20200904-p55sfu.html">COVID recession</a> and how to capture young voters who have been <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-young-australians-hit-hard-during-covid-19">hit hard</a> by the economic downturn. </p>
<p>Queensland also needs to transform its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/qld-coronavirus-tourism-boom-holiday-destinations-long-weekend/12558046">tourism industry</a> in the face of both public health and environmental challenges. </p>
<p>And it needs to tackle climate change and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/qld-could-generate-more-renewable-energy-than-coal-and-gas/12570598">transform</a> “fossil” industries into new opportunities for employees and businesses.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/matt-canavan-says-australia-doesnt-subsidise-the-fossil-fuel-industry-an-expert-says-it-does-131200">Matt Canavan says Australia doesn't subsidise the fossil fuel industry, an expert says it does</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, Southeast Queensland has its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/australia-olympics-boss-says-gold-coast-key-to-queensland-bid/12169718">2032 Olympic bid</a> bubbling away in the background. </p>
<p>Queensland issues are Australian issues — and a harbinger of what’s to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with IWDA as a National Board member and is a Research Associate at Chatham House UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elise Stephenson is affiliated with the Queensland State Government LGBTI Roundtable.</span></em></p>There’s a lot more to Queensland than jokes about Meter Maids and faded curtains. The October 31 election will have a bearing on the whole country.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityElise Stephenson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469272020-10-04T18:55:31Z2020-10-04T18:55:31ZQueensland’s unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions<p>The Queensland election campaign officially begins this week, with the government entering <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/procurement/pan-22-caretaker-conventions.pdf?v=1599437891">caretaker mode</a> on Tuesday, and the election set for <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/2020-state-general-election">October 31</a>. </p>
<p>But the crystal ball for this election, which will see a number of significant firsts, is frustratingly cloudy. </p>
<h2>Palaszczuk vs Frecklington</h2>
<p>This is the state’s first election for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-05/four-year-fixed-parliamentary-term-referendum-declared-yes-ecq/7299386">four-year fixed term</a> of parliament since 1893. It’s also the first occasion at which the leaders of the two major parties — Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Liberal-National Party’s (LNP) Deb Frecklington — are women.</p>
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<img alt="People voting at polling booths in school hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queenslanders will be voting in a government for four years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, apart from August’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">Northern Territory election</a>, Queensland’s poll will be the first major electoral test of any Australian jurisdiction since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>All of this makes the election extremely difficult to forecast, especially given the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-queensland-labor-governments-vote-shrivels/news-story/04e693d3de28af07ec51dad6d4b58728">marked difference</a> in how voters rate the parties, as opposed to their leaders. </p>
<p>That’s before you throw in the pull of four significant minor parties and their unpredictable preference flows.</p>
<h2>A change of government is possible</h2>
<p>Even so, we might say Labor is Queensland’s “natural” party of government, given it has held office for 26 of the past 31 years, and for 70 of the past 105 years (since the birth of the modern party system).</p>
<p>This stands in sharp contrast to Queenslanders’ predilection to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">back conservative parties </a> at federal elections. In 2019, for example, the state <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">swung toward</a> the Morrison-led Coalition at a rate about four times the Australian average.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Heading into the election, Labor holds a razor-thin buffer, with just 48 seats in the 93-seat parliament. A tiny after-preference <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Labor">swing of 0.7%</a> would see Labor lose two seats and its majority. </p>
<p>The LNP, currently on 38 seats, must win nine additional seats, via a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Liberal%20National">3.4% swing</a> to form majority government. </p>
<p>Ironically, that’s virtually identical to the <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-analysis-of-results/">3.5% swing</a> against the NT Labor government last month.</p>
<p>In June, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">YouGov</a> poll had the LNP in front of Labor, 52% to 48%, two-party preferred. In July, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a> had the LNP ahead, 51% to 49%. </p>
<p>The implications are clear: victory for the LNP is eminently possible. </p>
<h2>A hung parliament is also on the cards</h2>
<p>With polls putting Labor’s primary vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">as low as 32%</a>, preferences will be crucial and minor parties will once again play a significant role. </p>
<p>Because of recently introduced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">election spending caps</a>, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is expected to walk away empty-handed. This comes after Palmer donated <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">almost $84 million</a> to his own campaign during the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>But with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to maintain its lone seat, Katter’s Australian Party its three, and the Greens almost certain to double their representation to two, a hung parliament – a repeat of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">2015-17 term</a> – is also a real possibility.</p>
<h2>Referendum on three questions</h2>
<p>For these reasons and more, the political eyes of Australia will be on Queensland on October 31. And it will invariably be a referendum on three questions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk has been premier since 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first is whom Queenslanders trust more as their premier for the next four years. </p>
<p>In late July, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-maintains-newspoll-lead-federally-and-in-queensland-bidens-lead-over-trump-narrows-144193">Newspoll found</a> 81% of those surveyed approved of Palaszczuk’s handling of the pandemic, with 57% preferring her as premier. Just 26% preferred Frecklington. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland opposition leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington took over as opposition leader in December 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a late September, Newspoll saw a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/twothirds-of-queenslanders-back-annastacia-palaszczuk-as-state-election-looms/news-story/46b9fb24eb42bf41a50719db7f132094">marked dip</a> in Palaszczuk’s ratings, with 69% of respondents saying the premier was performing well over coronavirus. </p>
<h2>Health vs economy</h2>
<p>A second question is which public policy frame — public health or economic buoyancy — do Queenslanders rate more highly? This comes down to simple arithmetic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If those angry at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/05/queensland-to-enforce-hard-border-closure-with-nsw-and-act-from-saturday">hard border closures</a> and damaged hospitality, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/tourism-industry-warns-second-queensland-lockdown-would-break-our-spirit-20200727-p55fsu.html">tourism</a> and other small businesses outweigh those grateful for a government that has overseen just <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics">1,160 coronavirus cases</a> and six deaths, then Palaszczuk has a problem. </p>
<p>But with border and pub relaxations <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qld-announces-immediate-easing-of-restrictions-as-road-map-to-normal-is-released/news-story/34a2f6de1243a54cfc3b7d1abaf7db98">introduced last week</a>, even that anger might be quelled by election day. </p>
<h2>COVID recovery</h2>
<p>If not, these concerns would be compounded by a third question: which party do Queenslanders trust more to navigate the state out of the COVID-19 economic quagmire? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand sanitisers on a table at a polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland will be voting in the middle of a pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor has reason to feel secure here, despite state debt <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/queensland-treasurer-delivers-fiscal-budget-outlook-coronavirus/12628358">nearing $100 billion</a> and an <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP%2FLFR_SAFOUR%2FLFR_UnemploymentRate">unemployment rate</a> above the national average. In June, a YouGov poll found Labor enjoyed an <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/06/yougov-galaxy-52-48-lnp-queensland/">11 point lead</a> on the question of preferred economic managers. That figure alone has panicked LNP strategists. </p>
<p>But since then, the LNP has come out with economic guns blazing. It has re-embraced the <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/new-bradfield-scheme-will-supercharge-the-north/">1930s Bradfield Scheme</a> — a largely debunked populist dream to divert northern rivers westward. More pragmatically, the LNP also launched a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-27/lnp-promises-33-billion-spend-on-15-year-bruce-highway-plan/12708342">$33 billion plan</a> to upgrade the entire Bruce Highway from Gympie to Cairns. </p>
<p>Given more than half the state’s seats are outside Greater Brisbane, this policy pays the sort of regional homage that wins elections in Queensland. </p>
<h2>The Prime Minister will be watching</h2>
<p>Beyond Queensland, who will be watching the Queensland poll most closely? </p>
<p>Morrison found his <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2020/07/07/how-qld-delivered-scott-morrisons-miracle-election/">way back to government</a> last year via regional Queensland, which is now torn between border closures and economic survival. He will certainly be keeping a close eye on the contest, even if it is <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-government-finally-sets-date-for-opening-of-nsw-border--but-theres-a-catch-c-1359240">impossible</a> to visit in person.</p>
<p>There are just four weeks to go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>As Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the LNP’s Deb Frecklington vie for Queenslanders’ votes, leadership, COVID and economic recovery are set to dominate debate.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459212020-09-11T01:58:29Z2020-09-11T01:58:29ZWhy would Australia Post go out of its way to deliver Pauline Hanson’s stubby holders?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357563/original/file-20200910-20-esetx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Back in July, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson appeared in her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/today-show-dumps-pauline-hanson-for-divisive-remarks-about-melbourne-public-housing-residents">then-regular</a> spot on Channel Nine’s Today program. </p>
<p>During a discussion about the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/coronavirus-victoria-melbourne-public-housing-estates-lockdown/12423042">hard lockdown</a> of Melbourne’s public housing towers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/pauline/12450972">Hanson said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>A lot of these people are from non-English speaking backgrounds, probably English as their second language, who haven’t adhered to the rules of social distancing</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hanson added “a lot of them are drug addicts,” and “alcoholics” before noting if people were from “war torn countries” they “know what it’s like to be in tough conditions”.</p>
<p>The comments - and the way Channel Nine presented them - caused a storm of controversy. And Hanson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/today-show-dumps-pauline-hanson-for-divisive-remarks-about-melbourne-public-housing-residents">lost her regular spot</a> on the program. </p>
<p>But the episode didn’t stop there. Hanson then sent a gift to each of the residents of one of the towers in North Melbourne. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-today-show-gave-pauline-hanson-a-megaphone-it-diminished-australias-social-capital-142156">When The Today Show gave Pauline Hanson a megaphone, it diminished Australia's social capital</a>
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<p>What is even more perplexing, the head of Australia Post reportedly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-post-pauline-hanson-and-the-locked-down-public-housing-tower-20200909-p55u01.html">intervened</a> to make sure Hanson’s mail was delivered to their intended recipients.</p>
<h2>Hanson’s ‘gift’</h2>
<p>For $A7 you can buy your very own branded stubby holder from the One Nation website. </p>
<p>Featuring Hanson’s image against a sunset orange background it is emblazoned with the words: “I’ve got the guts to say what you’re thinking”.</p>
<p>These were the stubby holders sent to the tower’s residents, which came with a note saying “<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6919413/post-saga-storm-in-a-stubby-holder-hanson/?cs=14231">no hard feelings</a>”. </p>
<p>It’s difficult to imagine what kind of reasoning was behind this “gift”.</p>
<p>To their credit, the people managing deliveries to the tower discovered what was in the parcels, each addressed only “to the householder”. Fearing, quite reasonably, the deliveries would inflame an “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-post-pauline-hanson-and-the-locked-down-public-housing-tower-20200909-p55u01.html">emotional tinder box</a>”, the deliveries were withheld.</p>
<h2>Australia Post gets involved</h2>
<p>If one’s political suspicion was roused by the stubby holder stunt, things became even more unbelievable when Australia Post chief executive Christina Holgate, was implicated in trying to make sure the parcels were delivered.</p>
<p>On hearing the people managing the locked down tower had intercepted the deliveries, Holgate’s legal counsel reportedly sent a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-post-pauline-hanson-and-the-locked-down-public-housing-tower-20200909-p55u01.html">threatening email</a> to Melbourne City Council. </p>
<p>The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, who saw the email, reported it gave Melbourne City Council five hours to deliver the parcels, or said police might be notified. </p>
<h2>Australia Post under pressure</h2>
<p>Holgate has come under <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/australia-post-on-track-to-break-delivery-records/12615476">additional scrutiny</a> of late. Australia Post has been breaking delivery records during the pandemic. But has also faced concerns about delays and service cuts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-hands-australia-post-opportunity-to-end-daily-delivery-140848">COVID hands Australia Post opportunity to end daily delivery</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Holgate is the highest paid public servant in the country, earning more than <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-s-best-paid-bureaucrat-rakes-in-2-5m-20191017-p531hy#:%7E:text=Australia%20Post%20boss%20Christine%20Holgate,from%20%241.646%20million%20last%20year">$2.5 million</a> in pay and bonuses in the 2018-2019 financial year. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate at a Senate inquiry" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357564/original/file-20200910-18-k46lcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia Post head Christine Holgate is the highest paid public servant in Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>OK, CEOs earn a lot. But at a time when Australia Post is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/auspost-invites-volunteer-parcel-deliveries-while-executives-eye-bonuses-20200901-p55rf7.html">asking staff</a> to work extra hours and use their own cars to deliver a backlog of parcels, its executives have still been eyeing up huge bonuses. </p>
<p>Following a heated debate, they will <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/auspost-board-poised-to-back-down-on-executive-bonuses-amid-backlash-20200902-p55ron.html">not have bonuses for 2020</a>. But there is still a pool of <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/leadership/australia-posts-board-blocks-christine-holgates-1m-bonus/news-story/c310d58ac64f68d8cee3e4bfa3221868">more than $825,000</a> in payments coming from 2019.</p>
<h2>Corporate politics</h2>
<p>It is difficult to understand why Australia Post got involved in the stubby holder saga. Why would it want to stand up for a political stunt aimed at people in a hard lockdown?</p>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2020/09/10/australia-post-delivers-hanson">media outlets</a> have been quick to point out that at the time, One Nation senators were considering whether to support <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-post-pauline-hanson-and-the-locked-down-public-housing-tower-20200909-p55u01.html">overturning a temporary relaxation</a> of postal delivery rules.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Postie on a motorbike" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357565/original/file-20200911-20-1hn0ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parcel deliveries have skyrocketed during COVID.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australia Post</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in April, Australia Post’s regulatory requirements <a href="https://www.financeminister.gov.au/media-release/2020/04/21/supporting-australia-post-throughout-covid-19">were adjusted</a> due to COVID-19, allowing them to focus on parcel rather than letter delivery. The changes, <a href="https://auspost.com.au/general/government-supports-australia-posts-plan-to-reform-its-letters-service">backed by Australia Post</a>, are due to end in June 2021.</p>
<p>This was a political hot potato, with the <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-to-oppose-cheap-shot-australia-post-cuts-20200609-p550wy">two major parties taking opposite sides</a> and Labor <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6789387/minister-hits-back-at-labor-australia-post-push/">pushing to “disallow”</a> the changes in the Senate, amid union concerns about job losses. </p>
<h2>More than a storm in a stubby holder</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6919413/post-saga-storm-in-a-stubby-holder-hanson/?cs=14231">statement</a>, Australia Post said Holgate did not personally intervene in the stubby holder deliveries. </p>
<p>“Australia Post confirms that Ms Holgate did not speak to Senator Hanson or One Nation on this matter, nor did she threaten Melbourne City Council.”</p>
<p>Australia Post’s response has been to justify their actions purely on their <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6919413/post-saga-storm-in-a-stubby-holder-hanson/?cs=14231">legal obligation</a> to prevent interference with the mail. No politics at play here, they claim, they were just doing their job. </p>
<p>As for Hanson, she was unconcerned, describing the whole thing as a “<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6919413/post-saga-storm-in-a-stubby-holder-hanson/?cs=14231">storm in a stubby cooler</a>”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-tower-lockdowns-unfairly-target-already-vulnerable-public-housing-residents-142041">Melbourne tower lockdowns unfairly target already vulnerable public housing residents</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But nobody said anything about the well-being of residents of the towers, who were the target of this terrible exercise in populist publicity. </p>
<p>Those residents, many of them vulnerable, were treated as collateral damage in this episode.</p>
<p>It doesn’t take a lot of guts to say Australia should expect much more from its politicians, its business leaders and major service providers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145921/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl Rhodes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the One Nation leader sent ‘gifts’ to public housing residents, Australia Post stepped in to make sure they arrived.Carl Rhodes, Professor of Organization Studies, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1346612020-06-22T01:15:03Z2020-06-22T01:15:03ZPauline Hanson built a political career on white victimhood and brought far-right rhetoric to the mainstream<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340484/original/file-20200609-165389-d0sojm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Conversation is running a series of explainers on key figures in Australian political history, looking at the way they changed the nature of debate, its impact then, and its relevance to politics today. You can also read the rest of our pieces <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/key-figures-in-australian-political-history-86822">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Pauline Hanson and her party have only achieved modest electoral successes. Yet, she is undoubtedly Australia’s most successful populist politician and has had a profound impact on the way the country talks about issues like multiculturalism and immigration.</p>
<p>Hanson’s entire political career can be seen as a denial and rejection of the realities of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1341787.pdf">whiteness</a> in Australia – that is, the unearned <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/the-white-possessive">benefits and privileges</a> afforded to white people in settler-colonial countries. </p>
<p>Hanson has benefited from – and helped to shape – the normalisation of racism and xenophobia in Australia. She has pushed the boundaries of what can be “acceptably said” in public discourse and has had a disproportionate influence on the national debate. </p>
<p>In doing so, she has also created the political space for other far-right figures like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5pxE4RXpjc">Fraser Anning</a> to emerge and become more a part of the political mainstream. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340486/original/file-20200609-165389-ivl4b3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hanson’s political fortunes have come and gone, but she’s remained a fixture in the public consciousness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The birth of One Nation</h2>
<p>Hanson first emerged on the political landscape in 1996 when <a href="https://australianpolitics.com/1998/03/01/background-information-on-pauline-hanson.html">she was disendorsed</a> as the Liberal Party candidate for Oxley following racist comments she made about Indigenous people in a letter to the Queensland Times.</p>
<p>She contested the election anyway, running as an independent on a self-described nationalist, populist and protectionist platform, and won the seat with a large swing against the Labor incumbent. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pauline-hansons-1996-maiden-speech-to-parliament-full-transcript-20160915-grgjv3.html">maiden speech</a> to the House of Representatives, Hanson claimed to speak on behalf of “mainstream Australians” and promised a “common sense” approach to politics.</p>
<p>Most controversially, Hanson warned Australia was “in danger of being swamped by Asians”, called for the abolition of multiculturalism and railed against Indigenous rights, so-called “political correctness” and “reverse-racism”.</p>
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<p>The times suited Hanson. After 13 years of Labor government, John Howard and the Liberal Party looked to exploit a sense of resentment and grievance on the issues of multiculturalism and immigration, which arguably opened up the space for Hanson and helped to legitimise her views. </p>
<p>Indeed, in a 1996 speech delivered to the Queensland Liberal Party, Howard <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-10114">celebrated</a> the idea people felt able to speak a little more freely and could do so </p>
<blockquote>
<p>without living in fear of being branded as a bigot or racist. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Hanson’s One Nation party <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-10/timeline-rise-of-pauline-hanson-one-nation/7583230?nw=0">was formed the following year</a> and performed well at the 1998 Queensland state election, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/cib9899/99CIB02">winning 11 seats</a>.</p>
<h2>Hanson’s downfall and political resurrection</h2>
<p>One Nation’s initial success, however, was short-lived. Hanson <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-rise-and-fall-of-pauline-hanson-20030821-gdw80v.html">failed to win</a> the newly redistributed seat of Blair at the 1998 federal election. Her party then began to suffer from <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/please-explain-the-rise-fall-and-rise-again-of-pauline-hanson-9780143784678">internal divisions, poor leadership and Hanson’s personal and financial scandals</a>. </p>
<p>She was subsequently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/20/australia.thefarright">convicted</a> of electoral fraud in 2003. (It was later overturned on appeal.)</p>
<p>After a number of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/hansons-senate-bid-im-the-redhead-voters-can-trust-20130603-2nl21.html">failed federal and state campaigns</a> (including under the rebranded <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20071014012637/http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22450691-1248,00.html">Pauline’s United Australia Party</a>), Hanson finally succeeded in being elected to the Senate in 2016, along with three other One Nation candidates. </p>
<p>This represented a high point for the party at the federal level and gave it considerable influence over government policy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/henry-parkes-had-a-vision-of-a-new-australian-nation-in-1901-it-became-a-reality-131453">Henry Parkes had a vision of a new Australian nation. In 1901, it became a reality</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Hanson’s populist, nativist beliefs</h2>
<p>Hanson can best be described as a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/populist-radical-right-parties-in-europe/244D86C50E6D1DC44C86C4D1D313F16D">populist radical right politician</a>, alongside such figures as Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán.</p>
<p>For populist figures, politics are seen as a struggle between everyday, ordinary people and a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/government-and-opposition/article/populist-zeitgeist/2CD34F8B25C4FFF4F322316833DB94B7">corrupt, illegitimate and out-of-touch elite</a>.</p>
<p>But more importantly, the populist radical right also uses the language of “us-versus-them” and portrays immigrants and refugees as existential threats to the safety, security and “culture” of a particular society.</p>
<p>In Hanson’s view, non-natives must either assimilate and embrace “Australian culture and values” or <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/pauline-hanson-maiden-speech-2016/7847136">“go back to where they came from”</a>.</p>
<p>Hanson has consistently drawn on a sense of grievance and victimhood – in particular, white victimhood. She has espoused a belief in the existence of so-called “reverse-racism” or “anti-white” racism since the outset of her political career.</p>
<p>Hanson has even gone so far as to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/artless-and-angry-pauline-hanson-demonstrates-lack-of-fitness-for-crucial-role-20190920-p52tes.html">claim</a> the </p>
<blockquote>
<p>most downtrodden person in this country is the white Anglo-Saxon male.</p>
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<h2>The mainstreaming of the far-right</h2>
<p>Hanson’s resurgence in 2016 occurred in a very different political climate than her first stint in parliament in the late 1990s. </p>
<p>Political scientist Cas Mudde refers to the 21st century as the “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2019/nov/12/nativism-is-driving-the-far-right-surge-in-europe-and-it-is-here-to-stay">fourth wave of the far-right</a>”. It is a time when far-right ideas are becoming increasingly tolerated, debated and normalised in the mainstream and the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0957926519889109">boundaries of what can be said are shifting</a>.</p>
<p>Emboldened by years of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01419870.2017.1312008">normalised Islamophobia</a> in Australia and the electoral successes of far-right parties globally, Hanson’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/pauline-hanson-maiden-speech-2016/7847136">maiden Senate speech</a> warned Australia was now</p>
<blockquote>
<p>in danger of being swamped by Muslims, who bear a culture and ideology that is incompatible with our own. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>She called for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/17/pauline-hanson-wears-burqa-in-australian-senate-while-calling-for-ban">“Trump style” immigration ban</a>, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/pauline-hanson-plans-to-ban-the-burqa-and-call-royal-commission-into-islam">a Royal Commission into Islam</a> and the “<a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/pauline-hanson-moves-to-ban-burqa-voted-down-by-out-of-touch-politicians/">banning of the burqa</a>”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"898333651418492929"}"></div></p>
<p>Hanson’s resurgence has clearly cemented Muslims as the new “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22041451.2020.1729970">dangerous other</a>”, though her racist attitudes towards First Nations people and Asian immigrants have also remained a constant.</p>
<p>Her claims of “anti-white racism” have also gained traction in the mainstream. For example, when Hanson put forth a Senate motion declaring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/15/ok-to-be-white-australian-government-senators-condemn-anti-white-racism">“it’s OK to be white”</a> in 2018, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/16/government-blames-administrative-error-for-its-support-for-its-ok-to-be-white-vote">surprising number of Coalition members voted for it</a> and later defended it on Twitter. </p>
<p>It was only later, after a vocal outcry, that the Coalition backed down and claimed the votes were made in error.</p>
<p>The media have played a key role in the mainstreaming of Hanson and One Nation by consistently giving them a platform to voice far-right ideas. </p>
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<h2>Hanson’s legacy and impact on society</h2>
<p>There are a couple of ways to think about Hanson’s legacy and impact on society. </p>
<p>The first is to gauge her direct influence on government policy through her role as a parliamentarian. There’s no doubt she has wielded considerable influence as one of a number of senators to hold the balance of power in recent years. </p>
<p>Yet, despite some success in influencing legislation and her recent appointment as deputy chair of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-18/rosie-batty-family-law-inquiry-pauline-hanson-bias/11523914">family law inquiry</a>, Hanson has been largely unsuccessful in seeing her <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/">signature policies</a> realised.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-julia-gillard-forever-changed-australian-politics-especially-for-women-138528">How Julia Gillard forever changed Australian politics - especially for women</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And while acknowledging Hanson’s role in mainstreaming far-right ideas, it’s important to note these ideas have existed before her maiden speeches and will exist well beyond her time in politics.</p>
<p>Exclusively focusing on Hanson’s individual acts ignores the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-systemic-racism-and-institutional-racism-131152">systemic nature</a> of racism and the role of the mainstream political class in reproducing and upholding these racist structures.</p>
<p>When assessing Hanson’s legacy, it may be comforting to view her as an aberration and reflection of a bygone era, but she remains very much a product of the Australian settler-colonial story.</p>
<p>It’s perhaps more accurate to think of Hanson as a symptom of racism and xenophobia in Australia, rather than its cause.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kurt Sengul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hanson has been largely unsuccessful in seeing her signature policies realised. But she has helped normalise xenophobia and racism and thus had a disproportionate influence on the national debate.Kurt Sengul, Doctoral Researcher, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1267412019-11-18T19:20:47Z2019-11-18T19:20:47ZLoneliness is a social cancer, every bit as alarming as cancer itself<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301686/original/file-20191114-77291-n1zlj5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C4%2C995%2C661&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Young adults and people living in the inner city are among those most likely to be lonely, according to the ABC's Australia Talks project.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ptsd-mental-health-concept-young-depressed-1157218930?src=4a53bdd8-daa3-4645-a20d-c6a8a4873940-1-8&studio=1">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ABC’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-06/australia-talks-explained/11570332">Australia Talks</a> project aims to stimulate a conversation on a broad sweep of topics — from job security and sexual habits to national pride and personal finances.</p>
<p>The project is based on the results of a representative survey of more than 50,000 Australians.</p>
<p>One question the ABC’s promotional material focused on was “Are you lonely?” And when ABC chair Ita Buttrose <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-08/annabel-crabb-australia-talks-what-australians-worry-about/11579644">was asked</a> what she thought was the most surprising and disturbing feature of the whole exercise, she singled out the data on loneliness.</p>
<p>So, does loneliness deserve this billing? Is it really as important an issue as climate change, the economy, or education? We believe it is, and importantly, results from the Australia Talks survey help explain why.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-in-3-young-adults-is-lonely-and-it-affects-their-mental-health-124267">1 in 3 young adults is lonely – and it affects their mental health</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Loneliness kills</h2>
<p>First, loneliness is a killer. <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1000316">An influential meta-analysis</a>, which collated and analysed the results of nearly 150 studies, underlines the impact on health of loneliness, or more specifically, lack of social integration and social support.</p>
<p>It found loneliness increases the risk of death more than such things as poor diet, obesity, alcohol consumption, and lack of exercise, and that it is as harmful as heavy smoking.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dogs-really-can-chase-away-loneliness-125495">Dogs really can chase away loneliness</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>People don’t know loneliness kills</h2>
<p>Second, most people generally don’t know loneliness kills. Indeed, some of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953617307505?via%3Dihub">our own research</a> found when people in the United Kingdom and United States were asked to rank how important they thought various factors were for health, social integration and social support were at the bottom of their lists. </p>
<p>Yet, in a forthcoming paper, we found the quality of social connections is around four times more important as a predictor of retirees’ physical and mental health than the state of their finances.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301688/original/file-20191114-77291-1fuupxh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When people retire, the quality of their social connections is a much more important predictor of their physical and mental health than how rich they are.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/group-active-senior-women-doing-aqua-487107589">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>But when was the last time you saw an advert on TV telling you to get your social life in order (rather than your pension plan) before you stop working? When was the last time a health campaign or your family doctor warned you of the dangers of loneliness?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-really-have-thought-this-cant-go-on-loneliness-looms-for-rising-numbers-of-older-private-renters-118046">'I really have thought this can’t go on': loneliness looms for rising numbers of older private renters</a>
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<p>Our ignorance about the health consequences of loneliness is a reflection of the fact that loneliness is not part of our everyday conversations around health. </p>
<p>Hopefully, the Australia Talks project will change that. In the process, its findings also give us plenty of things to talk about.</p>
<h2>Who’s feeling lonely?</h2>
<p>The most striking finding from the Australia Talks national survey is simply how pervasive loneliness is in Australia today. Indeed, only half (54%) of participants reported “rarely” or “never” feeling lonely.</p>
<p>The survey also finds loneliness is a particular challenge for certain sections of the community. Of these, four stand out.</p>
<p><strong>1. Young people</strong></p>
<p>Among people aged 18-24, only a third (32%) “rarely” or “never” feel lonely. More than a quarter (30%) said they felt lonely “frequently” or “always”.</p>
<p>This compares sharply with the situation for older people, over two-thirds of whom (71%) “rarely” or “never” feel lonely. The fact that our <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/22876368.pdf">image of a lonely person</a> is typically someone of advanced years suggests we need to update our data (and our thinking).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-is-it-really-to-blame-for-young-people-being-lonelier-than-any-other-age-group-104292">Social media: is it really to blame for young people being lonelier than any other age group?</a>
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<p><strong>2. Inner-city dwellers</strong></p>
<p>The second group for whom loneliness emerges as a particular problem are people living in inner cities. </p>
<p>Compared to people who live in rural areas, those in inner metropolitan areas are less likely to say that they “never” feel lonely (15% vs 20%), but much more likely to say that they “occasionally”, “frequently”, or “always” do (50% vs 42%).</p>
<p>Again, this runs counter to much of the discourse around loneliness, which often focuses on the plight of those who are physical remote from others. </p>
<p>But this speaks to the psychological reality of loneliness. As we note in our recent book <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-New-Psychology-of-Health-Unlocking-the-Social-Cure/Haslam-Jetten-Cruwys-Dingle-Haslam/p/book/9781138123885">The New Psychology of Health</a>, people’s health and well-being is very much linked to the strength of their connection to, and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1088868314523839">identification with, groups and communities</a> of various forms.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/many-people-feel-lonely-in-the-city-but-perhaps-third-places-can-help-with-that-92847">Many people feel lonely in the city, but perhaps 'third places' can help with that</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>3. One Nation voters</strong></p>
<p>Interestingly, a third group that reports disproportionately high levels of loneliness is One Nation voters. Nearly one in ten (9%) of Pauline Hanson’s followers report being lonely “always” compared to around 2% for followers of each of the other parties. </p>
<p>We believe feeling disconnected from the world and its institutions often drives people to find solace in marginal political movements. This indeed, is the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1348/014466605X48998">developmental trajectory of multiple forms of extremism</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-far-rights-creeping-influence-on-australian-politics-93723">The far-right's creeping influence on Australian politics</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p><strong>4. People on low incomes</strong></p>
<p>Perhaps the most stark finding concerns the fourth predictor of loneliness: poverty. While 21% of people who earn less than A$600 a week feel lonely “frequently” or “always”, the comparable figure for people who earn more than A$3,000 a week is less than half that (10%). </p>
<p>This speaks to the more general (but often neglected) fact that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2920957/">around the world</a> poverty is one of the biggest predictors of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)00150-6/fulltext">poor health</a>, especially depression and other mental illnesses. </p>
<p>It also speaks to our observation that if you are fortunate enough to have a lot of money <a href="https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sipr.12049">when you retire</a>, then one of the key things this allows you to do is to maintain and build social connections.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-could-make-the-retirement-system-more-sustainable-78185">How we could make the retirement system more sustainable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do about loneliness?</h2>
<p>So, there is a lot here for us to talk about when it comes to loneliness. This discussion also needs to ask what we are going to do to address a social cancer every bit as alarming as cancer itself. </p>
<p>For us, a large part of the answer lies in <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2019-47128-002.html">efforts to rebuild group-based social connections</a> that are eroded by the tyrannies of modern life.</p>
<p>This is a world where all types of community — families, neighbourhoods, churches, political parties, trade unions and even stable work groups — are constantly under threat. So let’s get talking.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-cities-to-counter-loneliness-lets-explore-the-possibilities-104853">Designing cities to counter loneliness? Let's explore the possibilities</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Haslam receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He was a member of the Scientific Advisory Board for the ABC's Australia Talks project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Haslam receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Veterans Affairs</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tegan Cruwys receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Loneliness is a bigger cause of death than a poor diet, obesity, alcohol consumption, and lack of exercise, and it’s on a par with heavy smoking. So let’s get talking about it.Alex Haslam, Professor of Psychology and ARC Laureate Fellow, The University of QueenslandCatherine Haslam, Professor, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Behavioural Sciences, The University of QueenslandTegan Cruwys, Senior research fellow and clinical psychologist, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1243602019-10-01T11:39:20Z2019-10-01T11:39:20ZBoris Johnson’s flirtation with populism will have lasting consequences for the Conservative Party<p>UK politics is getting more dramatic, divisive and <a href="https://theconversation.com/traitors-betrayal-surrender-british-politics-now-dripping-with-terms-that-fuel-division-124318">nastier</a>. Nowhere is this more evident than in the populist turn taken by the Conservative Party. Problematically for them, however, populism is incompatible with some of the central principles of British conservatism. So while playing to the gallery might win votes in the immediate term, the Conservative Party could be managing the fallout for decades to come. </p>
<p>Among the core features that distinguish conservatism and populism are their different approaches to the rule of law and their conception of “the people”. The law is not something pivotal to populists, and part of their shtick is to at least appear to flaunt it, whereas conservatives bestow reverence upon it.</p>
<p>The collision course between conservatism and right-wing populism, set in motion by Boris Johnson, is nowhere more apparent than in the Supreme Court’s ruling that the government’s prorogation of parliament <a href="https://theconversation.com/q-a-supreme-court-rules-boris-johnsons-prorogation-of-uk-parliament-was-unlawful-so-what-happens-now-124119">was “unlawful”</a>. One of conservatism’s key principles is respect for tradition. Wrapped up in this is the tradition of the rule of law. For more than 300 years, the Conservatives have claimed to represent law and order. This ruling shot that to bits.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court’s decision is not a usual judgment on an executive. To the contrary, it is so unusual that the epithet “historic” has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49805024">been applied</a> to it. As yet, constitutional historians and parliamentary experts have failed to provide a parallel case to which it can be compared. It appears entirely unprecedented.</p>
<p>The government might achieve a <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-boris-johnson-defeated-by-uk-supreme-court-but-he-could-still-emerge-as-a-winner-123819">short-term bounce</a> by claiming elitist judges are trying to block Brexit, but the longer-term consequences are stark. No longer will the Conservatives be able to claim that they are the natural party of the law. They will face an immediate and emphatic riposte: you broke the law. </p>
<p>Opposition parties will repeat this accusation over decades. Think of how the Conservatives respond to any question about fiscal matters or public spending. “We’re clearing up Labour’s mess,” they say. “Labour crashed the economy, and we’re putting the house in order.” These, and similar phrases, have been uttered again and again for over a decade. Conservatives will now be subject to the accusation that their privilege and entitlement knows no bounds. These are people who will break the law to get what they want.</p>
<p>Many Conservative politicians (I hesitate to use the phrase MPs, because so many have either quit or had the whip withdrawn) saw that the high-risk strategies associated with Johnson’s top adviser Dominic Cummings would stretch conservatism’s steady-as-she-goes credentials to breaking point. Quite apart from their differences with the executive over Brexit, former Conservative MPs Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Amber Rudd and others, were well aware that the party’s deep and carefully honed presentation as the party of respectability, normality and legality was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/27/brexit-major-fears-johnson-could-use-privy-council-to-bypass-law-preventing-no-deal-live-news">in peril</a> as the impatience – the push to “just get on with it” – took over. Their instincts have been confirmed by the Supreme Court.</p>
<h2>A passing phase?</h2>
<p>Attention now turns to what happens next. We’ve been given an inkling of this already by leader of the house Jacob Rees-Mogg’s reported characterisation of the ruling as <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/home-affairs/justice-system/news/106818/attorney-general-slaps-down-jacob-rees-mogg-over">“a constitutional coup”</a>, and Johnson’s return performance in the Commons suggests more of the same.</p>
<p>Cummings reportedly believes the Supreme Court ruling is beneficial as it will enable the government to reinforce and deepen the <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-in-the-supreme-court-when-populists-attack-the-rule-of-law-everyone-loses-124302">populist approach</a> of pitting the people against the establishment.</p>
<p>For conservatism, protecting “what is” (in other words, the institutions that have been handed down to us) is a joint project between conservative politicians and the people, their constituents. Together they have been engaged in this project for centuries. This means there is a seamless bond between the people and the elite (or establishment, or government, or parliament, or judiciary), which enables them to rule and the people to view the Conservatives as the natural party of government and their proper representatives.</p>
<p>Populism, in stark contrast, operates by breaking that bond. It decrees that the elite has abandoned the people, and acts against their interests.</p>
<p>Of course, this particular government must adopt the slightly more subtle approach of identifying parliament and the judiciary as the culprits frustrating the people’s will rather than deploying the classic populist antagonism of the “people versus the elite”. It is, after all, an administration led by a man deeply associated with the elite.</p>
<p>As with its current approach to the rule of law, Johnson’s government is jeopardising that long-running and carefully nurtured association. Through breaking that bond and initiating an antagonism between the people and the establishment, “the people” might start to identify a different one. The PM declares that parliament and the judiciary constitutes the establishment but, now this particular can of worms is open, the finger might just as well be redirected towards him and his party. </p>
<p>Rory Stewart, a recent party leadership candidate, has opined that the Conservatives are going through a “passing phase”. The worry for him and the “moderate”, One Nation Tories that have resisted and rejected (or been rejected by) Johnson’s populist turn is that the enduring associations that the Tories have carefully crafted are being permanently ripped apart before our very eyes. </p>
<p>The prime minister’s next big test will be whether to abide by the law and ask for a Brexit extension or ignore it to meet his commitment to taking the UK out of the EU on October 31 with or without a deal. What would happen to him then is anyone’s guess, but further digressions from the law will only reinforce the impression that this government has gone rogue. </p>
<p>Conservatism and right-wing populism are uncomfortable bedfellows. The longer they remain together and the more entrenched the connection becomes, the more obvious this will be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Knott is a dormant member of the Green Party, although this hasn't affected the analysis in this article</span></em></p>The Conservative Party has long positioned itself as the voice of law and order – now that’s been shot to bits.Andy Knott, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, University of BrightonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175032019-06-16T20:04:17Z2019-06-16T20:04:17ZWe asked people to do climate change maths. Their answers depended on their politics<p>In an ideal world, people would look at issues with a clear focus only on the facts. But in the real world, we know that doesn’t happen often. </p>
<p>People often look at issues through the prism of their own particular political identity - and have probably always done so. </p>
<p>However, in an environment of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lies-obfuscation-and-fake-news-make-for-a-dispiriting-and-dangerous-election-campaign-115845">fake news</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2016/11/16/13653026/filter-bubble-facebook-election-eli-pariser-interview">filter bubbles</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/04/21/barack-obama-and-the-psychology-of-the-birther-myth/the-echo-chamber-effect">echo chambers</a>, it seems harder than ever to get people to agree about simple facts.</p>
<p>In research published today in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2019.1618364">Environmental Communication</a>, my colleague Matthew Nurse and I report that even some of the smartest among us will simply refuse to acknowledge facts about climate change when we don’t like them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-old-school-climate-denial-has-had-its-day-117752">Why old-school climate denial has had its day</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Skin cream versus climate change</h2>
<p>The research took place just before Australia’s 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>We asked 252 people who were planning to vote for the Greens and 252 people who were planning to vote for One Nation to consider some data we’d put together. To understand that data, they would need to do some mental maths, just like you would when looking at a typical scientific report.</p>
<p>While there was no significant difference in the mathematical ability between the two groups of voters overall, it seemed that political affiliations can have an impact on how people answered a mathematical question, depending on the subject. </p>
<p>For example, in one experiment we told participants that data in the scientific report was about whether a new skin cream would cure a rash, as shown below. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279355/original/file-20190613-32373-15kdrhr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>We asked them to indicate whether the experiment shows that using the new cream is more likely to make the skin condition better or worse. Participants in our study got the correct mathematical answer 48% of the time. </p>
<p>However, when we showed them exactly the same data but said it was about whether closing coal-fired power stations would significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the local area (by 30% or more), we got a very different set of answers. </p>
<p>For example, when the report showed CO₂ emissions would go down significantly, only 27% of One Nation supporters got the right answer.</p>
<p>When the report showed CO₂ emissions would not significantly go down, only 37% of Greens voters got it right. </p>
<p>So it seems our participants were less likely to answer a question correctly when it went against their political ideology.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-sceptic-or-climate-denier-its-not-that-simple-and-heres-why-117913">Climate sceptic or climate denier? It's not that simple and here's why</a>
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<h2>Spilt people according to maths ability</h2>
<p>But what follows is really the interesting bit. </p>
<p>We decided to find out whether numeracy – maths ability – played a role in people getting the wrong answers. First, we looked at those with below-average numeracy. </p>
<p>We found many of these people just gave their preferred, ideologically aligned answers when it came to the climate change question. This is a well-known effect called <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/record/1991-06436-001">motivated reasoning</a>.</p>
<p>But surely the more numerate groups of people, those better at maths, would fare better? Well, not really.</p>
<p>The groups of people with above-average numeracy sometimes did worse than the less numerate groups. Some did no better than chance at 50%, and some did far, far worse than that, as the graph below shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/279346/original/file-20190613-32342-1jlp10w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More numerate people are more polarised about climate change data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2019.1618364">Matt Nurse</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we showed people reports about CO₂ emissions, the more numerate people were much more politically polarised than any other group. For example, the participants considered a report showing that CO₂ would go down significantly, a One Nation supporter with a numeracy score of seven (out of nine) was only 5% as likely to provide the correct answer as a Greens supporter in the same numeracy category.</p>
<h2>Motivations change brain function</h2>
<p>This is counterintuitive, but this isn’t the first study to reveal this effect.</p>
<p>These findings build on research previously done by a Yale professor, <a href="https://law.yale.edu/dan-m-kahan">Dan Kahan</a>. The phenomenon is a type of motivated reasoning called <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioural-public-policy/article/motivated-numeracy-and-enlightened-selfgovernment/EC9F2410D5562EF10B7A5E2539063806">motivated numeracy</a>. </p>
<p>While Kahan’s previous research focused on the politically polarising issue of gun control in the United States, some people suggested the same thing might happen with other topics, <a href="https://www.salon.com/2013/09/17/the_most_depressing_discovery_about_the_brain_ever_partner/">particularly climate change</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-politics-and-policy-what-can-we-learn-from-al-jazeeras-undercover-nra-sting-114291">Guns, politics and policy: what can we learn from Al Jazeera's undercover NRA sting?</a>
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<p>Our research is the first to confirm this.</p>
<p>These findings build on the theory that your desire to give an answer in line with your pre-existing beliefs on climate change can be stronger than your ability or desire to give the right answer. </p>
<p>In fact, more numerate people may be better at doing this because they are have more skills to rationalise their own beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence.</p>
<h2>So what?</h2>
<p>You might ask whether it really matters if people sometimes get the wrong answer on questions like this. </p>
<p>We’d argue yes, it does matter. Successful democracies rely on a majority of voters being able to identify and understand risks, and make the appropriate voting choices.</p>
<p>If people remain entrenched in their ideological corners when threats come along, and are unwilling to face facts, societal problems can fester, potentially becoming much more difficult to resolve later.</p>
<p>Just imagine scientists had discovered human activity was damaging our atmosphere. They said this problem would cause Earth’s climate to get hotter and threaten our livelihoods. Politicians and the people they represented saw this as a legitimate issue worth acting on, regardless of their political views. Imagine the world united to fix this problem, even though it would cost a lot of money.</p>
<p>In fact, we don’t need to imagine too much, as this isn’t just a hypothetical situation. It actually happened when scientists found evidence the use of industrial chemicals was depleting the ozone layer. </p>
<p>In 1987, for the first and only time, all 197 members of the United Nations agreed to sign the <a href="http://web.unep.org/ozonaction/who-we-are/about-montreal-protocol">Montreal Protocol</a> regulating the man-made chemicals that destroy the ozone layer. More than 30 years later we can measure the <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/269">benefits of this agreement</a> in our planet’s atmosphere.</p>
<h2>A matter of science, not politics</h2>
<p>Unlike the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-old-school-climate-denial-has-had-its-day-117752">climate change debate</a>, people largely saw this risk as a matter of science, not politics. </p>
<p>But it seems people are increasingly encouraged to see risks like this through a <a href="https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-focus-on-the-framing-not-just-the-facts-73028">political frame</a>. When this happens, facts can become irrelevant because no matter how smart people are, many will simply deny the evidence to protect their side of the political debate.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/communicating-climate-change-focus-on-the-framing-not-just-the-facts-73028">Communicating climate change: Focus on the framing, not just the facts</a>
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<p>Societies need to make good choices for their survival and those choices need to be based on facts, regardless of whether everyone likes them or not. </p>
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<p><em>This research was conducted by Matthew Nurse as part of a master’s thesis at the Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will J Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked 252 Australian Greens party supporters and 252 One Nation party supporters to do some simple maths. Their answers changed when we told them it was climate change data.Will J Grant, Senior Lecturer, Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175022019-05-22T05:12:27Z2019-05-22T05:12:27ZQueensland to all those #Quexiteers: don’t judge, try to understand us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275822/original/file-20190522-187165-d23ze5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=742%2C5%2C2550%2C1886&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Progressive voices have lit up social media with memes blaming Queensland for Labor's loss in the federal election. But characterising the state as regressive and redneck is misplaced.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“What the hell is wrong with Queensland?” </p>
<p>Such comments are at the polite end of social media responses from progressive voters in other parts of Australia who were disappointed by the Coalition’s “miracle” win on Saturday. </p>
<p>Putting to one side the fact that the swings against Labor were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">not much bigger</a> in Queensland than some other parts of the country, and that it had the most marginal seats in the election, the instinct to <a href="https://junkee.com/blaming-queensland-election-australia/206236">blame and deride Queensland</a> highlights exactly what went wrong for the ALP. </p>
<p>Contrary to the claims of #Quexiteers, Queenslanders are not all deeply conservative, rusted-on LNP voters, even in central and northern regions. If they were, they wouldn’t have elected Labor governments for 25 of the past 30 years. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129932497528037377"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/anna-bligh-carried-weight-of-the-sisterhood-as-queenslands-first-female-premier/news-story/92e6d140b3754e10311e6a92712eada1">Anna Bligh</a> was the first woman in Australia to be elected premier and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/annastacia-palaszczuk-queenslands-accidental-premier-20150402-1mdq2e.html">Annastacia Palaszczuk</a> was the first woman to be elected premier from opposition. Her ministry was the first in Australia to have a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/16/the-palaszczuk-ministry-includes-a-majority-of-women-but-dont-expect-a-revolution">female majority</a>. Voters who elected LNP members in Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson and Capricornia on Saturday voted in ALP members in the 2017 state election in seats like Cook, Cairns, Gladstone, Mackay and Keppel. </p>
<p>The problem for Labor, then, isn’t that Queenslanders don’t like voting Labor. Instead, the federal Labor Party, like the many <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/05/21/did-pollsters-misread-australias-election-or-did-pundits">pundits who predicted an ALP win</a>, seem to have underestimated or misunderstood the variances and nuances of the Queensland electorate. </p>
<p>As the only state where a majority of the population lives outside the capital city, regionalism matters in Queensland in a way it does not elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Why Queensland is different</h2>
<p>Settlement patterns in Queensland did not mirror other states. Regional towns and cities developed as service centres and ports for the hinterland industries, among them beef, gold, sugar, coal and gas. The first railways in the 1860s ran from the ports in coastal towns to these inland production centres, creating an interdependence not replicated in other parts of the country. </p>
<p>Queensland’s regions, therefore, developed as separate economic entities, with limited connection to the rest of Queensland (including the capital Brisbane), or indeed Australia. </p>
<p>This geography also informs the way people have historically voted. Any threat to the economic viability of hinterland industries had a spillover effect on the regional towns that serviced them. </p>
<p>As regions reliant on export industries, they have been highly susceptible to cycles of boom and bust. Many are still suffering high unemployment and depressed housing prices following a slowdown in mining and the end of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/boom-over-the-industry-that-was-spending-10-000-a-minute-has-reached-its-peak-20180803-p4zved.html">LNG construction boom in and around Gladstone</a>. Frequent natural disasters have compounded their difficulties. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-the-queensland-voter-australias-trust-deficit-and-the-path-to-indigenous-recognition-115569">The myth of 'the Queensland voter', Australia's trust deficit, and the path to Indigenous recognition</a>
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<p>As a result, Queensland governments have had to be highly responsive to the interests and fears of diverse communities. </p>
<p>The national focus of federal politics, however, is less conducive to understanding the differences between, say, Cairns and Clermont, Caboolture and Charleville. This hurt both Labor and the Coalition in the recent federal election, as evidenced by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">the rise in first preferences to minor parties</a> like One Nation and the United Australia Party.</p>
<p>Labor suffered more, though, due to its <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing">policy-rich campaign platform</a> focused mainly on metropolitan, first-time home buyers and environmentalists. This did not signal to regional Australians, particularly those in Queensland, that their concerns had been heard. </p>
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<h2>Who is representing the workers?</h2>
<p>Queensland has a proud place in Labor history. The Labor movement was born under the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/heritage/places/national/tree">Tree of Knowledge</a> in Barcaldine in 1891. The state also elected the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/first-labor-premier-anderson-dawsons-short-inglorious-reign/news-story/9aafb31eff9f36f932b4997dbd84837c">world’s first Labor government in 1899</a>. To characterise Queensland as regressive and redneck is to deny its historic and contemporary relationship with the Labor Party and workers.</p>
<p>It may be that working Queenslanders no longer see their lives or aspirations reflected in the federal Labor Party and its leadership. The pathway that <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/fisher-andrew-378">Andrew Fisher</a> and <a href="http://primeministers.naa.gov.au/primeministers/chifley/">Ben Chifley</a> took, for example, from engine driver to prime minister has gone the way of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-05-19/barcaldine-tree-of-knowledge-poisoned/1757536">poisoned Tree of Knowledge</a>. Labor is now dominated by professional political operatives drawn from the knowledge and professional classes – the group Bill Shorten personified. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-queensland-and-tasmania-win-it-for-the-coalition-117398">State of the states: Queensland and Tasmania win it for the Coalition</a>
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<p>When workers couldn’t see their concerns and fears reflected in Labor policies, they parked their vote with the permanent voices of disaffection – Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer. And in the federal election those parties’ preferences <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-helps-return-coalition-to-government-amid-labor-bloodbath-20190518-p51ost.html">flowed strongly to the LNP</a>. </p>
<p>In the marginal seats of Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson, Forde and Petrie, the LNP’s primary vote scarcely moved. After preferences, however, swings to the LNP ranged from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/flyn">5.7% in Flynn</a> to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/capr">11.1% in Capricornia</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/daws">11.4% in Dawson</a>, with votes still to be counted as of Wednesday. </p>
<h2>Concerns of the ‘neglected classes’</h2>
<p>Labor paid the electoral price for misjudging Queensland, but it was far from alone in doing so. Analysts and commentators, predominantly those south of the Tweed, indulged in the smug chauvinism of tired stereotypes. Social media lit up, exposing the cultural and political divide between urban, regional and rural Australia that journalist Gabrielle Chan documented in her recent book, <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/rusted-off-gabrielle-chan/prod9780143789284.html?zsrc=dsa-feed&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIqZ3H24Cu4gIVGDUrCh2i1AJVEAAYASAAEgI1x_D_BwE">Rusted Off: Why Country Australia is Fed Up</a>. </p>
<p>Chan describes the “neglected classes” – Australians locked out of opportunity by economic and social shifts, as well as a lack of technology, in the nation’s left-behind places. An <a href="http://www.fullemployment.net/pdi/pdi_2016_electorates.php?State=QLD&order=1">index of prosperity and distress</a> in Australian localities developed by the Centre of Full Employment and Equity identifies the seats of Hinkler, Wide Bay, Kennedy, Maranoa, Flynn and Capricornia in Queensland among the most economically distressed in the nation. Dawson, Blair, Longman, Herbert and Rankin are classified as “high risk”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-aside-north-queensland-voters-care-about-crime-and-cost-of-living-86847">Adani aside, North Queensland voters care about crime and cost of living</a>
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<p>Another <a href="https://www120.secure.griffith.edu.au/research/file/e12cb44e-6909-4d44-abde-d4f00265946e/1/Developing%20an%20Energy%20Poverty%20Index%20for%20Queensland.pdf">index</a> developed by Griffith University researchers identifies Gladstone, Logan (encompassing the marginal seat of Forde retained by the LNP) and Far North Queensland as “hotspots” of <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/energy-poverty">energy poverty</a>, meaning they lack access to affordable energy services. </p>
<p>The prevailing discourse in Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne that this was the “climate change” election obscured the role that economic insecurity and disadvantage might have played in shifting votes to One Nation and United Australia, which flowed as preferences to the Coalition. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275826/original/file-20190522-187157-hzxh49.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Voters in other parts of Australia made the Adani mine a campaign issue, but in Queensland, other concerns were paramount.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>What, then, can we learn from the 2019 federal election? For one, we need a better way of understanding the needs and interests of all Australians in election campaigns and developing a nuanced sense of local contexts and concerns. </p>
<p><a href="https://regionalinnovationdatalab.shinyapps.io/Dashboard/">Griffith University’s data dashboard</a> and <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/federal-election">our coverage of Queensland seats</a> sought to ensure more informed reporting of the campaign than we have come to expect from the national media and commentators, whose lack of knowledge of different parts of Queensland seldom tempers their opinions. </p>
<p>Another important take-home is that federalism matters – perhaps more than ever. Australia’s federal framework was premised on the principle of <a href="https://www.caf.gov.au/subsidiarity.aspx">subsidiarity</a> – that decision-making should be devolved to the most local level possible.</p>
<p>National governments, by their nature, are homogenising. Political elites often strive to force states and regions to conform to a one-size-fits-all national policy approach, usually driven from the top down. </p>
<p>Labor’s experience in Queensland, however, suggests that local governments are better placed to accommodate regional differences and try to balance competing influences and perspectives. </p>
<p>Federalism was not mentioned once in the 2019 federal election campaign, but the result in Queensland suggests the need to rethink and reconceptualise the role the national government plays in a contemporary federation. This could help foster a political culture that is more responsive to, and respectful of, all parts of Australia – including and perhaps especially Queensland.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117502/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has previously received research funding via competitive grants from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Deem and Jennifer Menzies do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland has a proud place in Labor history. But the 2019 election shows the federal Labor Party no longer understands the issues that matter to Queensland voters.Anne Tiernan, Professor of Politics. Dean (Engagement) Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityJacob Deem, Postdoctoral research fellow, Griffith UniversityJennifer Menzies, Principle Research Fellow, Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1171922019-05-19T11:25:40Z2019-05-19T11:25:40ZMinor parties perform well in federal election and reconfirm the power of preference deals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275285/original/file-20190519-69192-1yeuz7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer spent about $60million on advertising – despite not winning a seat, the UAP vote had a significant impact on some seat outcomes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Kelly Barnes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This was an election brimming with surprises and shocks. An unexpected Coalition victory, and the inaccuracy of <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/worse-than-the-trump-polling-fail-how-did-the-federal-election-polls-get-it-so-wrong">opinion poll predictions</a>, have many scratching their heads in the post-election wash-up.</p>
<p>What didn’t defy predictions, though, was another high non-major party vote of close to 25%. At this election, primary vote support for both Labor and the Coalition is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals">slightly diminished</a>, continuing a trend of waning faith in the parties of the political “establishment”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-has-led-the-coalition-to-a-miracle-win-but-how-do-they-govern-from-here-117184">Morrison has led the Coalition to a 'miracle' win, but how do they govern from here?</a>
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<p>It is also unsurprising to see the popularity in certain regions of minor parties like Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP). In this, at least, it seems opinion polls were more accurate.</p>
<h2>Minor parties in the lower house</h2>
<p>As anticipated, though, neither of these minor parties looks to have won lower house seats. But at this point in the count, their voters’ preferences generally appear to have flowed strongly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-helps-return-coalition-to-government-amid-labor-bloodbath-20190518-p51ost.html">in favour</a> of the Coalition. This has helped support large two-party-preferred swings for government MPs in formerly at-risk marginal seats.</p>
<p>Irrespective of recent controversies, PHON again managed to attract significant numbers of disgruntled voters, particularly in its home state of Queensland. The party’s national vote of 3% is more than double its effort at the 2016 election. In Queensland, PHON’s vote increased by over 3% to 8.7%. In most of the 59 electorates it contested, PHON <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/one-nation-s-support-surged-across-the-country-was-it-all-thanks-to-labor">outperformed</a> its main minor party rival, the UAP.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-election-but-abbott-loses-warringah-plus-how-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-116804">Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong</a>
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<p>Palmer stood candidates in all 151 lower house seats and spent an estimated $60m on election advertising. <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-end-of-clive-how-palmer-s-60-million-campaign-failed-to-net-a-single-seat">Despite this</a>, the UAP secured just 3.4% of the national vote, and gained roughly an equivalent figure in Queensland. But that remarkable spend may have paid off in different ways.</p>
<p>Major party strategists have claimed that Palmer’s outlay had an impact in <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/clive-palmer-claims-credit-for-coalitions-victory/news-story/8379d4f63ffcfed6a2cb0905b9140bde">shaping the election result</a>. This applies mainly in Queensland, where his omnipresent, bright yellow advertising frequently targeted opposition leader, Bill Shorten, with negative messaging.</p>
<p>In addition to this, though, UAP and PHON – plus Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and other regionally-focused minor parties – campaigned hard on issues of great local concern to regional Queenslanders.</p>
<p>Prominent among these issues is the Adani coal mine project and, by association, the promise of employment opportunities in regional communities. The extent of desire for such opportunities in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/how-labor-lost-queensland-and-gifted-the-coalition-a-third-term/11122998">regional Queensland</a>, and the likelihood that votes would follow such promises, was a factor in the election lead-up perhaps not fully appreciated outside those regions.</p>
<p>The Greens have again secured approximately 10% of the vote nationwide, consolidating their place as the minor party enjoying highest voter support. Despite running prominent and popular campaigns in government-held seats like Kooyong and Higgins in Victoria, the party <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/mixed-greens-result-disappoints-but-could-deliver-senate-balance-of-power-20190519-p51oyd.html">has not added</a> to its sole elected MP, Adam Bandt in Melbourne.</p>
<p>In addition, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie and KAP’s Bob Katter, as expected, retained Mayo in South Australia and Kennedy in far north Queensland respectively. Both could play key roles in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/federal-election-coalition-win-what-happens-next/11128280">potential formation</a> with Prime Minister Scott Morrison of a minority government.</p>
<h2>Independents in the lower house</h2>
<p>A feature of this election was the number of high-profile independent candidates challenging prominent government MPs in city and regional electorates. But the anticipated independent “wave” – mainly of hoped-for women representatives – crashing through at this election didn’t quite materialise.</p>
<p>The ‘blue ribbon’ contest in Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth is still to be formally decided. But Liberal candidate Dave Sharma looks to have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-results-wentworth-too-close-to-call/11126558?section=politics">won the seat back</a> from independent MP, Kerryn Phelps, successful there at last October’s high-profile by-election.</p>
<p>In another highly anticipated contest, independent candidate Zali Steggall has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-2019-tony-abbott-loses-warringah-zali-steggall/11126492?section=politics">succeeded sensationally</a> in capturing the safe Liberal seat of Warringah from Tony Abbott. The former prime minister had held the seat since 1994, yet suffered a two-candidate swing of almost 19% against him.</p>
<p>In Victoria’s Indi, Helen Haines defied doubts about the ability of a new independent to “inherit” a seat from a departing one. Haines <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/federal-election-helen-haines-wins-indi-replaces-cathy-mcgowan/11126690">secured the seat</a> with the committed support behind her of the “Voices for Indi” movement, which had previously propelled Cathy McGowan into parliament.</p>
<p>As anticipated, independent Andrew Wilkie easily retained his hold on Clark in Tasmania. This, though, was in the face of an improved Coalition standing in the island state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-2019-bass-braddon-liberals-tasmania/11126696">potentially picking up two seats</a> from Labor.</p>
<p>By contrast, Rob Oakeshott failed to win the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/coalition-australian-election-challenge-independents-bush">regional seat of Cowper</a> in New South Wales, despite his recognisable status giving him a good chance of success. At Oakeshott’s second attempt at winning the seat, this time from the retiring Luke Hartsuyker, he was defeated fairly comfortably by the Nationals’ Pat Conaghan.</p>
<p>In all, the lower house crossbench currently stands at six MPs, an increase of only one member from the 2016 election.</p>
<h2>The Senate crossbench</h2>
<p>The Senate vote count is still underway and only roughly half-completed at this stage. Early totals indicate that the record crossbench of 20 senators elected in 2016 will be reduced in number.</p>
<p>Neither major party, though, will control a majority in the Senate. The Coalition will have to contend with a combination of right-wing and centrist minor party senators (including a returning <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/senate-results-hanson-young-returns-but-hinch-anning-and-burston-are-gone">Jacqui Lambie</a>) in addition to a likely 9 Greens.</p>
<p>In Queensland, where Clive Palmer was given the party’s best chance at winning a Senate seat, the UAP is currently well short of reaching a quota. PHON’s Queensland senate candidate, Malcolm Roberts, will likely <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/one-nation-s-roberts-tantalisingly-close-to-return-to-the-senate-20190518-p51oq1.html">capture the final spot</a> in that state and return to the upper house after his disqualification in 2017. Fraser Anning’s attempted re-election under his own party banner has been thwarted.</p>
<h2>Significance of preference deals</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen exactly how influential the Coalition’s preference dealing with the UAP and (for the Nationals) PHON proved to be. Yet Shorten contended in his election night concession speech that Coalition preference deals with these parties had “hurt” Labor’s support, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes">particularly in Queensland</a> and New South Wales.</p>
<p>The closeness of the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm">two-party-preferred</a> vote – currently 51.1% for the Coalition to 48.9% for Labor – indicates how little margin for error there is in losing voter support.</p>
<p>Significant backing for minor parties and independents at recent federal elections may not have converted to many lower house seats. But it at least ensures that preference dealing – and minor parties themselves – will continue to play a prominent role in our politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Especially in Queensland, right-wing populist parties like One Nation and United Australia Party had a significant impact on how seats played out, and especially taking votes from Labor.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158022019-04-24T23:34:31Z2019-04-24T23:34:31ZPoll wrap: Palmer’s party has good support in Newspoll seat polls, but is it realistic?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270853/original/file-20190424-121262-hzdtbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Support for Clive Palmer's UAP in recent polls is likely overstated.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 23 days to go until the May 18 election, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/437133d8fdd583300760e756b3441018?width=650">Newspoll</a> had seat polls of Herbert, Lindsay, Deakin and Pearce. All four polls were conducted April 20 from samples of 500-620. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) had the support of 5% in Deakin, 7% in Lindsay, 8% in Pearce and 14% in Herbert.</p>
<p>Seat polls are notoriously unreliable. In addition, the UAP has clearly been added to the party readout in these seats. Pollsters regularly ask for Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and One Nation. All other voters are grouped as “Others”, although a follow-up question can be asked – if Other, which other?</p>
<p>The strongest indication that UAP support is overstated in these seat polls is that the all Others vote is unrealistically low in three of the four seats polled. In Herbert, Pearce and Deakin, all Others are at just 2%, while they are 8% in Lindsay. It is likely that many of those who will vote for Others at the election said they would vote for the UAP as that party was in the readout.</p>
<p>Herbert was tied at 59-50, unchanged from the 2016 election. In Lindsay, Labor was ahead by 51-49, also unchanged. The Liberals led by 51-49 in Deakin, but this was a solid swing to Labor from 56.4-43.6 to the Liberals at the 2016 election. In Pearce, there was a 50-50 tie (53.6-46.4 to Liberals at the 2016 election).</p>
<p>Primary votes in Herbert were 31% LNP, 29% Labor, 14% UAP, 10% Katter’s Australian Party, 9% One Nation and 5% Greens. In Deakin, primary votes were 46% Liberals, 39% Labor, 8% Greens and 5% UAP. In Pearce, primary votes were 40% Liberals, 36% Labor, 8% Greens, 8% UAP and 6% One Nation. In Lindsay, primary votes were 41% Liberals, 40% Labor, 7% UAP and 4% Greens.</p>
<p>Relative to the national swing, Labor is expected to struggle in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert due to the Adani coal mine issue. In Lindsay, the retirement of Labor MP Emma Husar in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/07/mp-emma-husar-loses-nsw-labor-endorsement-for-seat-of-lindsay">controversial circumstances</a> may have made it vulnerable.</p>
<h2>Bad ReachTEL seat polls for Labor in Bass and Corangamite</h2>
<p>There were <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/21/election-minus-four-weeks/">two ReachTEL seat polls</a> conducted last week from samples of 780-850. In the Labor-held Tasmanian seat of Bass, the Liberals had a 54-46 lead. In the Victorian seat of Corangamite, which is on no margin following a redistribution, the Liberals led by 52-48. The Bass poll was conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association, and the Corangamite poll for The Geelong Advertiser.</p>
<p>Bass and Tasmania have an <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED601?opendocument">older demographic</a> than Australia overall. I wrote last week that, according to Newspoll data, those aged 50 or over are best for the Coalition. <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/CED209?opendocument">Corangamite</a> also has an older demographic than the country overall.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-maintains-its-lead-in-newspoll-while-one-nation-drops-nsw-upper-house-finalised-115426">Poll wrap: Labor maintains its lead in Newspoll, while One Nation drops; NSW upper house finalised</a>
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<p>Labor won Bass by 56.1-43.9 at the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-192.htm">2016 election</a>, a 10.1% swing to Labor. But at the 2013 election, Bass was the best of the five Tasmanian seats for the Liberals, and this also occurred at the March <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/bass/">2018 state election</a>. Labor’s big 2016 swing may have been caused by the unpopularity of hard-right Liberal MP <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-results-abbottbacker-andrew-nikolic-blames-getup-for-swing-that-cost-him-seat-of-bass-20160704-gpy38y.html">Andrew Nikolic</a>. In the July 2018 federal byelections, Labor had an underwhelming victory in Bass’s neigbouring seat, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/braddon-by-election-2018/">Braddon</a>.</p>
<p>While seat polls are unreliable, the Corangamite and Bass polls are evidence that, as reported by <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/24/election-minus-three-half-weeks/">The Poll Bludger</a> originally from The Australian Financial Review, Scott Morrison appears to have a greater appeal to blue-collar and outer suburban voters than Malcolm Turnbull, and this has helped the Coalition in seats like Bass and Corangamite.</p>
<h2>One Nation to contest 59 of the 151 House seats</h2>
<p>Nominations for the election were declared this week. Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the UAP will contest all 151 House seats. <a href="https://twitter.com/ncasmirri/status/1120968029691502592">One Nation</a> will contest 59 seats, with Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party running in 48 seats, Animal Justice in 46 and the Christian Democrats in 42.</p>
<p>Until now, national pollsters have assumed One Nation was running in all seats for their polls. With One Nation only running in 39% of seats, most pollsters will reduce their national vote. This reduction may assist the Coalition on primary votes.</p>
<p>In the Senate, a quota for election is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. Labor, the Greens and the Coalition are likely to be in the mix for the final seats in every state. It is possible that the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm">small right-wing parties</a>, such as Anning’s party, the UAP, the Australian Conservatives and Christian Democrats, could cause seats that should go to the right to go to the left instead if they do not tightly preference each other, One Nation and the Coalition.</p>
<p>Voters are told to number six boxes above the line for a formal vote, though only one number is actually required. At the NSW state election, left-wing micro-party voters preferenced more than right-wing micro-party voters, resulting in Animal Justice easily winning the final upper house seat.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-maintains-its-lead-in-newspoll-while-one-nation-drops-nsw-upper-house-finalised-115426">Poll wrap: Labor maintains its lead in Newspoll, while One Nation drops; NSW upper house finalised</a>
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<p>At the federal election, it will be clear that left-wing micro-party supporters need to preference Labor and the Greens in their top six. It will be clear for right-wing micro supporters to preference the Coalition in the top six, but it is not likely to be clear which other right-wing party to preference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Seat polls are notoriously unreliable, and the support shown for the United Australia Party in recent polls is likely to be overstated.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1154262019-04-15T04:48:39Z2019-04-15T04:48:39ZPoll wrap: Labor maintains its lead in Newspoll, while One Nation drops; NSW upper house finalised<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269231/original/file-20190415-147518-debsxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the election season now under way, Labor has retained its lead over the Coalition in the latest Newspoll, though Bill Shorten's approval rating has not improved. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With five weeks until the May 18 election, this week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, conducted April 11-14 from a sample of 1,700 people, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 39% Labor (up two), 9% Greens (steady) and 4% One Nation (down two) - One Nation’s lowest primary vote since November 2016.</p>
<p>While the two-party figure was unchanged, this poll is better for Labor than last week’s Newspoll, with Labor gaining two points in primary votes from One Nation’s drop. If we assess this poll as total right-wing vs total left-wing vote, the left (Labor and Greens) gained two points to stand at 48%, while the right (Coalition and One Nation) lost one point to fall to 43%. Analyst Kevin Bonham said this Newspoll was probably rounded towards the Coalition.</p>
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<p>One Nation’s drop is likely the result of increased polarisation between the major parties. If One Nation had been affected by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-politics-and-policy-what-can-we-learn-from-al-jazeeras-undercover-nra-sting-114291">NRA donations scandal</a>, it would have shown up in last week’s polls.</p>
<p>Nominations for the federal election will be <a href="https://aec.gov.au/election/">declared on April 24</a>. It is unlikely that One Nation will contest the vast majority of lower house seats. Polling conducted after April 24 is likely to greatly reduce One Nation’s vote as they will no longer be an option for most Australians in the lower house. This reduction of One Nation’s vote may assist the Coalition on primary votes.</p>
<p>In the Newspoll, 45% of respondents were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (steady), and 44% were dissatisfied (up one), for a net approval of +1. Labor leader Bill Shorten’s net approval was steady at -14. Morrison led Shorten by an unchanged 46-35 as better PM.</p>
<p>Since Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as prime minister in August 2018, the Coalition has recovered from a 56-44 deficit in Newspoll to 52-48 this week, due partly to the time that’s passed since the spill and partly to the relative popularity of Morrison.</p>
<p>Now that the election campaign is formally under way, some attention will shift to the opposition’s policies and proposals. The danger for Labor is the Coalition can scare voters about its economic policies, but the potential reward is that Labor can appeal to voters who are frustrated by the Coalition’s perceived inaction on climate change and low wage growth.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/post-budget-poll-wrap-coalition-gets-a-bounce-in-newspoll-but-not-in-ipsos-or-essential-114010">Post-budget poll wrap: Coalition gets a bounce in Newspoll, but not in Ipsos or Essential</a>
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<h2>Large difference in voting intentions by age group</h2>
<p>Every three months, Newspoll aggregates all the polls it conducted from that time period to get voting intention breakdowns by state, age, gender and region (the five capital cities vs the rest of Australia). For January to March, the overall result was 53-47 to Labor, a point better for Labor than the last two Newspolls.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/newspoll-1.pdf">three-month Newspoll</a> showed a large difference in voting intentions by age group. Among those aged 18-34, Labor had 46% of the primary vote, the Coalition 28%, the Greens 14% and One Nation 4%. Among those aged 35-49, it was Labor 39%, Coalition 35%, Greens 9% and One Nation 7%. And among those aged 50 or over, the Coalition had 44%, Labor 35%, One Nation 6% and Greens 5%.</p>
<p>It is still important to poll well with this oldest demographic. According to the <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/036?opendocument">2016 census</a>, those aged 18-34 represent 30.3% of the eligible voting age population and those aged 35-49 represent 26.0%. The share of the voting-age population aged 50 or over, however, is 43.7%. </p>
<p>Results by gender were similar. Men gave Labor 40% of the primary vote, the Coalition 37%, the Greens 7% and One Nation 6%. With women, Labor had 39%, the Coalition 37%, the Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. After preferences, Labor would be doing about one point better with women than men.</p>
<p>The best source for state voting intentions is The Poll Bludger’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/">BludgerTrack</a>. Perhaps reflecting <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-nsw-result-gives-federal-liberals-a-boost-in-the-mind-games-114153">the Coalition’s victory in the recent NSW election</a>, federal Labor’s lead over the Coalition in that state has been reduced to just 50.1-49.9 from about 54-46 in the last few weeks. This is about a 0.6% swing in Labor’s favour from 2016.</p>
<p>Labor has maintained a larger lead in most other states, however. In Victoria, Labor leads by 55.1-44.9, a 3.2% swing to Labor since 2016. In Queensland, Labor leads by 52.0-48.0, a 6.1% swing to Labor. In SA, Labor leads by 55.7-44.3, a 3.4% swing to Labor. </p>
<p>In WA, the Coalition still leads by 51.0-49.0, but this is a 3.6% swing in Labor’s favour from 2016. </p>
<p>Nationally, BludgerTrack gives Labor a 52.5-47.5 lead, a 2.8% swing to Labor.</p>
<h2>One Nation wins two seats in the NSW upper house</h2>
<p>In the March 23 NSW election, 21 members of the upper house were elected by statewide proportional representation, with a quota of 1/22 of the vote, or 4.55%.</p>
<p>The Coalition <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/results#party-totals">won 7.66 quotas</a>, Labor 6.53, the Greens 2.14, One Nation 1.52, the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1.22, the Christian Democrats 0.50, the Liberal Democrats 0.48, Animal Justice 0.43 and Keep Sydney Open 0.40.</p>
<p>The Coalition was certain to win an eighth seat, and Labor and One Nation were best placed for two other seats. On preferences, Animal Justice overtook the Liberal Democrats, Christian Democrats and One Nation to win the second-to-last seat, with One Nation’s second candidate, Rod Roberts, defeating the Christian Democrats for the final seat.</p>
<p>It is the first time since 1981 that the Christian Democrats have failed to win a seat in the NSW upper house. David Leyonhjelm, who resigned from the Senate to run as the lead Liberal Democrat candidate in NSW, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/nsw-election-results-david-leyonhjelm-misses-out-on-seat/11002814">did not win</a>.</p>
<p>The Coalition <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election">now holds</a> 17 of the 42 total upper house seats (down three), Labor 14 (up two), the Greens four (down one), the Shooters two (steady), One Nation two (up two), Animal Justice two (up one) and the Christian Democrats one (down one). <a href="https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1117614577770872832">One Green member, Justin Field, resigned from</a> the party, and is now an independent.</p>
<p>Overall, the right now holds 22 of the 42 seats. On legislation opposed by the left-wing parties, the Coalition will require support from One Nation, the Shooters and Christian Democrats.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">Coalition wins a third term in NSW with few seats changing hands</a>
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<h2>Brexit likely delayed until at least October 31</h2>
<p>The European Union leaders <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/12/no-brexit-near-future-israeli-election-results/">have decided</a> to delay Brexit until at least October 31. Without a majority for any plausible Brexit option, the House of Commons could only vote to delay Brexit to prevent a no-deal departure from the EU, but this delay will likely not appeal to the general public or “leave” voters.</p>
<p>Two new polls have the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">Conservatives slumping</a> to just 28-29% of the UK vote, 4-7 points behind Labour.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neither party got a bump from the official start of the federal election campaign, with Labor retaining its 52-48 advantage in the latest Newspoll.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1145062019-03-29T01:26:22Z2019-03-29T01:26:22ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on One Nation’s NRA affair and the Morrison’s coal offering<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini speaks to Michelle Grattan about the week in politics. They discuss One Nation seeking donations from the American gun lobby, Scott Morrison’s preference decision on One Nation, the government placating the Nationals by announcing an upgrade for a small coal-fired power station in NSW, and what to look for in next week’s budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deep Saini speaks to Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1142802019-03-29T01:05:16Z2019-03-29T01:05:16ZOne Nation, guns and the Queensland question: what does it all mean for the 2019 federal election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266301/original/file-20190328-139371-1uycvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pauline Hanson claims the Al Jazeera undercover "sting", which has grabbed international headlines, was a media "stitch-up".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Of all the controversies to conceivably bring Pauline Hanson undone, private discussions about gun law amendments wasn’t an obvious candidate.</p>
<p>Yet her <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-28/pauline-hanson-appears-to-question-port-arthur-massacre/10947112">recorded comments</a> about the 1996 Port Arthur massacre and subsequent gun law reforms are potentially destructive for her One Nation party. Only potentially, though; Hanson’s supporters have long shown a propensity to forgive or shrug off her party’s outlandish or shocking assertions.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-scott-morrison-struggles-to-straddle-the-south-north-divide-114461">Grattan on Friday: Scott Morrison struggles to straddle the south-north divide</a>
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<p>Already, Hanson and party colleagues have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/28/pauline-hanson-says-one-nation-victim-of-political-attack-by-al-jazeera-and-abc">shifted blame</a> for the Al Jazeera “sting” to a media “stitch-up” and, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/pauline-hanson-responds-to-controversy-over-al-jazeera-documentary/news-story/238caad1f0ad1b911bb7c2cb8175ca94">they claimed</a>, foreign political interference by an “Islamist media organisation”. </p>
<p>Presumably some Hanson adherents will find that plausible – the party has made anti-Muslim rhetoric part of its <a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/one-nation/pauline-hanson-clashes-with-david-koch-over-anti-muslim-rhetoric-ng-b881138713z">regular platform</a>. Other One Nation supporters might now question the principles the party claims to <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/one-nations-staggering-hypocrisy-exposed-by-al-jazeera-documentary/news-story/2c7d089df6300b409f684fbeeb161d16">stand for</a>.</p>
<h2>Why guns policy?</h2>
<p>Why would One Nation seemingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-james-ashby-rocks-a-few-boats-including-his-own-114324">risk</a> whatever political capital it possesses by flirting with changes to gun controls and seeking assistance (if not funding) from gun lobby groups?</p>
<p>The party’s nativist policy positions on refugees, immigration and foreign investment are well known and readily detailed on its website. Until now, gun law amendment has sat well behind these. One Nation’s <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/responsible-firearms-ownership-and-use/">listed policies</a> on firearms regulations include increasing penalties for gun-related crime and “streamlining” weapon licensing requirements. Not exactly controversial stuff.</p>
<p>But it is important to remember that the party first emerged in the wake of the Port Arthur shootings and rural resistance to the Howard government’s gun ownership reforms. Hanson and her candidates campaigned in the party’s early years on relaxing John Howard’s <a href="https://archive.homeaffairs.gov.au/crime/Documents/2017-national-firearms-agreement.pdf">laws</a>. They also <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/pauline-hansons-one-nation-a-triggerhappy-party/news-story/bc99749f392fa2134dd70ae8c2022b1f">benefited politically</a> from a mainly regional backlash against these – and against Howard’s National Party partners.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fraser-anning-was-elected-to-the-senate-and-what-the-major-parties-can-do-to-keep-extremists-out-114011">How Fraser Anning was elected to the Senate – and what the major parties can do to keep extremists out</a>
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<p>Recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/07/australian-gun-lobby-donations-rightwing-minor-parties-weaken-reforms-control">highlighted connections</a> between Australian gun lobby groups and minor parties, including One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party, bring the backdrop to this policy agenda into sharper relief.</p>
<p>One Nation’s original and more recent platform caters to disaffected, largely non-metropolitan constituents who feel the party’s anti-immigration, anti-foreign business and anti-government intervention policies “<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/2120200/firebrand-australian-senator-hanson-takes-far-right-campaign">speak for them</a>”.</p>
<p>In its recent incarnation, One Nation has tried – and found ready accomplices in sections of the media – to “<a href="https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/peter-costello-says-one-nation-has-now-mainstreamed-itself-ng-0c211ed4f0f1f0ef25d87487c339b92c">mainstream</a>” its appeal and some of its positions. It’s been observed that the party’s Senate members have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pauline-hansons-one-nation-emerges-as-governments-most-reliable-senate-voting-partner-20170304-guqo6i.html">regularly</a> supported the Coalition government’s legislative agenda during this term, on matters ranging from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/restoring-the-construction-watchdog-abcc-experts-respond-69643">reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC)</a> to reduced welfare spending.</p>
<p>The party’s suite of <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/">published policies</a> covers matters of concern to many Australians, such as power prices, transport infrastructure, water supply and jobs creation.</p>
<p>In this respect, it was perhaps not so surprising that Liberal MPs should describe the party as “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-more-economically-responsible-than-labor-steve-ciobo-20170213-guc3rz.html">more responsible</a>” than its earlier manifestation. Even former prime minister Tony Abbott, Hanson’s one-time political nemesis, endorsed One Nation owing to its “constructive” relationship <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/27/tony-abbott-says-politicians-better-second-time-around-at-pauline-hanson-book-launch">with the government</a> in parliament.</p>
<p>But this normalisation fails to mask the party’s extreme stances or inconsistent policy positions – even between <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-policies-the-definitive-guide-to-the-views-of-pauline-hanson-and-her-senators-20161017-gs3z1s.html">its own members</a>. One Nation adheres to curious policies decrying United Nations <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/united-nations-and-trade-agreements/">infringement</a> on our sovereignty, as well as questionable claims about <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/climate-change/">evidence-based</a> climate policy.</p>
<p>Then there is the attention-seeking behaviour: Hanson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2017/aug/17/george-brandis-attacks-pauline-hansons-appalling-burqa-stunt-video">wearing a burqa</a> in the Senate chamber; or Queensland Senate candidate Steve Dickson suggesting the Safe Schools program involved teachers instructing students in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-11/annastacia-palaszczuk-rubbishes-one-nations-safe-schools-claim/9141520">masturbation techniques</a>; or New South Wales upper house candidate Mark Latham proposing Indigenous welfare recipients undergo <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/everybody-hates-a-welfare-rorter-latham-spruiks-dna-testing-plan-for-aboriginal-people-20190311-p513au.html">DNA testing</a>. Stunts like these place One Nation firmly on the political fringe – though not without fellow dwellers. Notoriously, Coalition senators scrambled to backtrack on supporting Hanson’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-16/morrison-regrets-senators-backing-anti-white-racism-support/10381038">Senate motion</a> decreeing that “it’s OK to be white”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/266463/original/file-20190328-139356-178qo5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Stunts such as Pauline Hanson wearing a burqa in the Senate place One Nation on the political fringe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span>
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<p>This latest party engagement in seeking out overseas gun lobby assistance highlights another inconsistency, given Hanson’s vote in the Senate supporting new restrictions on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/pauline-hanson-one-nation-slammed-gun-laws-and-foreign-donations/10939140">foreign donations</a>.</p>
<h2>The Queensland question</h2>
<p>Considering this, why do One Nation’s policies seemingly still appeal to significant numbers of voters, particularly in Queensland? Traces of an entrenched conservative <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-john-harms-queensland-what-it-understand-place-you-must-first-understand-bundaberg-be">political culture</a> thumbing its nose at “the establishment” partly explain the party’s appeal in Queensland (and perhaps some of Peter Dutton’s ill-judged, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/22/peter-duttons-lebanese-muslim-remarks-attacked-as-race-baiting">racially charged comments</a> as immigration minister).</p>
<p>It’s a culture underpinned by a history of less diverse migrant influence than other parts of the country and arguably a more wary, paternalistic past regarding Indigenous and minority communities.</p>
<p>Another reason is the accentuated city-country divide in Australia’s most decentralised mainland state. Here, some agrarian-themed party policies – such as for <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/one-nation-promises-gigantic-water-infrastructure-plans/">dam building</a> or <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/vegetation-management/">vegetation management</a> – directly pander to regional voters. As a minor party not in government, though, One Nation has limited opportunity to carry these through, beyond aiming to wield balance-of-power <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/one-nation-staffer-filmed-seeking-millions-from-nra-in-bid-to-soften-gun-laws">influence</a> in the Senate.</p>
<p>More telling is One Nation’s claimed inheritance of an old National Party constituency. It is one that feels “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters">left behind</a>” – a sentiment the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party successfully tapped into in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">NSW election</a>. </p>
<p>As in the past, the Nationals will seek to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-says-nationals-must-shift-to-the-right-to-counter-shooters-threat-20190325-p517go.html">differentiate themselves</a> from their Coalition partners and marginalise One Nation and other far-right parties ahead of the 2019 federal election.</p>
<p>But that’s no easy feat in Queensland. Since the Liberal and National parties merged in the state to form the LNP in 2008, there has been no distinct outward National Party. Some rural and regional voters in Queensland have felt unrepresented to a certain extent, and their grievances have placed many in a resurgent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-29/meet-pauline-hansons-queensland-supporters/8220198">One Nation camp</a>.</p>
<p>The party’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/meet-voters-shunned-major-parties-in-favour-of-pauline-hanson/7762820">identification</a> with aggrieved outer-urban and regional conservative interests keeps its voters’ preferences an issue. Again, this is especially so in Queensland, where several LNP MPs hold seats in such areas on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/08/lnp-believes-queensland-marginal-seats-back-in-play-under-morrison">tight margins</a>.</p>
<p>But following this week’s revelations, and particularly in the wake of the Christchurch shootings, the preference issue will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/20/morrison-on-the-spot-as-hanson-claims-mps-reject-one-nation-preference-snub">bedevil the Coalition</a> in this state and elsewhere. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-politics-and-policy-what-can-we-learn-from-al-jazeeras-undercover-nra-sting-114291">Guns, politics and policy: what can we learn from Al Jazeera's undercover NRA sting?</a>
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<p>The prime minister’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-28/one-nation-will-be-preferenced-lower-than-labor-pm-announces/10947720">latest announcement</a> directing the Liberal Party’s state branches to preference Labor ahead of One Nation sends a needed message, but not unequivocally. It apparently leaves Liberals free to place One Nation ahead of the Greens or others, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fraser-anning-was-elected-to-the-senate-and-what-the-major-parties-can-do-to-keep-extremists-out-114011">is ambiguous</a> on how this will apply to all LNP MPs in Queensland, or possibly influence Nationals MPs elsewhere.</p>
<p>But the clamouring of Queensland’s Nationals-aligned MPs for new coal-fired <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/11/liberals-attack-queensland-nationals-push-for-coal-fired-power-stations">power stations</a> – mirroring One Nation <a href="https://www.onenation.org.au/policies/affordable-energy-and-cost-of-living/">policy</a> – indicates their likely preference leanings in favour of the minor party (and presumably leaves the Greens <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/19/greens-worse-than-pauline-hanson/">last of all</a>).</p>
<p>The recorded actions and comments of Hanson and her party colleagues could bring a political reckoning for One Nation at the coming federal election. Voters will soon judge if the party warrants their electoral support and decide if this new controversy is a bridge too far.</p>
<p>For its part, the Coalition is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/28/scott-morrison-sat-on-the-fence-with-the-one-nation-scandal-finally-he-has-acted">treading a line</a> between getting its hands burned over preference “deals”, as happened at Western Australia’s <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/colin-barnett-warns-against-liberal-preference-deal-with-hanson-ng-b881140566z">last election</a>, or doing as John Howard (ultimately) did and <a href="https://medium.com/the-machinery-of-government/donning-the-mantle-of-john-howard-4583e0a4611">jettisoning</a> One Nation preferences altogether.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114280/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>One Nation, particularly in Queensland, has attracted voters who feel “left out” of mainstream politics. But the Coalition’s intermittent courting of the party may end with this week’s revelations.Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1144612019-03-28T12:49:21Z2019-03-28T12:49:21ZGrattan on Friday: Scott Morrison struggles to straddle the south-north divide<p>Scott Morrison’s ruling that the Liberals should put One Nation below Labor on their how-to-vote cards is less a stand on principle than a political gesture and a compromise.</p>
<p>A gesture that came because the prime minister recognised he must stiffen his spine publicly against One Nation, especially to stem further leaching of the Liberals’ crumbling support in Victoria.</p>
<p>A compromise, because the Liberals are not going all the way to placing One Nation last.</p>
<p>Notably, they are allowing for the Greens to be put under One Nation on Liberal tickets. For those on the right of the party - such as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-says-coalition-should-still-give-preferences-to-constructive-pauline-hanson-20190328-p518cg.html">Tony Abbott</a> - the Greens are far more unpalatable than One Nation.</p>
<p>Morrison was pushed by circumstances to make his Thursday announcement.</p>
<p>The New Zealand mosques massacre brought the issue of preferences into focus. Morrison parried, saying it was a matter for later, when candidates were known, and for the party organisation.</p>
<p>But with this week’s revelations about the extraordinary visit to the US gun lobby by James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff, and Steve Dickson, One Nation’s Queensland Senate candidate, Morrison’s shilly-shallying became untenable.</p>
<p>Morrison attributed his change of position to those revelations, saying he’d been waiting to see the reaction of One Nation’s leadership, and it had been “unsatisfactory”.</p>
<p>When Hanson appeared a few hours later, it was to claim victim status for One Nation - a pitch that might play quite well with some of her supporters, who see themselves as victims of one kind or another.</p>
<p>“If it wasn’t for Rodger Muller and the Islamist Al Jazeera network, One Nation would never, never have had any association with the NRA [National Rifle Association],” she said. She stood by Ashby and Dickson, though Dickson got a mild rebuke for some of his (truly appalling) comments. Steve had been “stitched up”; he was “a victim of entrapment”. </p>
<p>In short, Hanson gave no ground.</p>
<p>She dismissed Morrison as “a fool” who had handed the Lodge keys to Bill Shorten by his preference decision.</p>
<p>In explaining his stand, Morrison harked back to John Howard. “I haven’t rushed into this decision, in the same way that John Howard, who I have been consulting with closely on this matter … did not rush into this decision when he took it 20 years ago. I have followed a similar considered process,” he said.</p>
<p>Did he miss the irony? Indeed, it was the same process (though Morrison didn’t take as long and hasn’t gone as far as Howard did). Far from leading from the front, both Howard and Morrison were pushed from behind. And now, as with Howard in the 1990s, Victorian Liberals, who are fearing a bloodbath in May, have been doing much of the shoving.</p>
<p>But Victoria is only part of the election story, and the Liberals are only one partner in the Coalition, albeit the major one.</p>
<p>Nationals leader Michael McCormack quickly declared his party’s decisions would be made “at a state and local level”.</p>
<p>McCormack said he personally always put the Greens last - “they represent a greater danger to regional areas than do any other party”. As for whether One Nation should be above or below Labor, he didn’t care - “voters have the choice”.</p>
<p>McCormack’s position is in sharp contrast to that of one of his predecessors. Tim Fischer, asked this week if One Nation should be put at the bottom, said: “My preference? I’d put them last”.</p>
<p>In Queensland the Liberals and Nationals are organisationally merged into the Liberal National Party (LNP). But they sit in different party rooms in Canberra and on preferences they’ll separate into their respective tribes.</p>
<p>The Queensland Nationals, facing a substantial One Nation vote in key seats, will do what they judge will maximise their chances, meaning a number can be expected to play ball with Hanson.</p>
<p>In lower house electorates Coalition preferences don’t matter to One Nation, which is not in the running for a seat. But how One Nation preferences flow is important to some Coalition MPs. One Nation voters are ill-disciplined with their preferences, but in a tight contest a few votes can make the difference.</p>
<p>Leaving aside the fact they’d share certain One Nation policy views, vulnerable Queensland Nationals would be anxious to avoid anything that invites preference retaliation. </p>
<p>Whether Hanson spurns these needy Nationals remains to be seen. After Morrison’s statement Mark Latham, just elected for One Nation to the NSW parliament, was quick to threaten retaliation in Liberal and Nationals seats in that state. </p>
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<p>It wasn’t just on preferences that Morrison grappled with the north-south divide this week.</p>
<p>When the government produced its announcement on underwriting “firm power” projects, it was against the background of a concerted pro-coal campaign from Queensland Nationals, supported by Barnaby Joyce (a former Queensland senator, who now holds a NSW seat).</p>
<p>But the commercial arguments can’t be ignored and there was just one coal project among the dozen ventures chosen – and that was an upgrade for an existing operation in NSW.</p>
<p>Beyond the short list, however, the government announced a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power station in Queensland. To be precise, the study would evaluate projects in north and central Queensland that “include but are not limited to a new HELE coal project in Collinsville, upgrades of existing generators as well as gas and hydro projects”.</p>
<p>This was both gesture and compromise.</p>
<p>The chances of such a study leading to a coal-fired power station would be very small, given the investment realities. But politically, it is the fact of the study that counts.</p>
<p>Faced with the Coalition’s coal lobby, for Morrison a feasibility study was an ideal fix. It appears to be doing something. It is relatively cheap. It can be trumpeted by the supporters of coal (as Joyce did). It doesn’t stir up the anti-coal voters in the south too much. And it delays for a long time a real decision.</p>
<p>The announcement of the study seems to have muted the noise from the Nationals on the coal question.</p>
<p>Its another story with the argument over preferences, not least because it splits Liberal ranks. </p>
<p>Morrison would hope he’s done enough to satisfy supporters in those key Victorian seats.</p>
<p>But Malcolm Turnbull quickly set the bar higher, when he <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/pauline-hanson-vows-revenge-after-pm-s-preference-snub-20190328-p518cy">told</a> the Australian Financial Review, “The call to show the most emphatic disapproval of One Nation is absolutely justified. And they should be put last. Scott Morrison has obviously gone some way towards that today, but hopefully he will go further.” </p>
<p>And Victorian voters do have an ear for what the former prime minister says.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114461/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With this week’s revelations about the extraordinary visit to the US gun lobby by One Nation’s James Ashby, and Steve Dickson, Morrison’s shilly-shallying became untenable.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1140112019-03-28T00:33:55Z2019-03-28T00:33:55ZHow Fraser Anning was elected to the Senate – and what the major parties can do to keep extremists out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266226/original/file-20190327-139349-wnv7pl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Senate voting system is complicated, as demonstrated by Fraser Anning being elected on just 19 votes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of the far-right terrorist atrocity in Christchurch on March 15, there has been much condemnation of independent senator Fraser Anning’s <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/outrage-as-fraser-anning-blames-nz-attacks-on-muslim-immigration">anti-Muslim comments</a>. Anning won just 19 personal votes below the line, so how was he fairly elected?</p>
<p>In the Senate, voters can either vote “above the line” or “below the line”. Above the line votes will go to the party’s candidates in the order they are placed on the ballot paper. Below the line votes are personal votes for a candidate.</p>
<p>At normal federal elections, six senators per state are elected, and a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. As the 2016 election was a “double dissolution”, where all senators were up for election, 12 senators per state were elected, and the quota was reduced to one-thirteenth of the vote, or 7.7%.</p>
<p>Electoral <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/SenateVotingReform">reforms were implemented</a> at the 2016 election. Voters were asked to number at least six boxes above the line, though a “1” only vote would still be accepted. The effect was that voters would direct their own preferences once their most preferred party was excluded from the count. Previously, parties controlled their voters’ preferences, and still do in Victoria and WA, leading to bizarre results.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorian-upper-house-greatly-distorted-by-group-voting-tickets-federal-labor-still-dominant-in-newspoll-108488">Victorian upper house greatly distorted by group voting tickets; federal Labor still dominant in Newspoll</a>
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<p>Voting below the line was also made easier. Voters were asked to number at least 12 boxes, though only six numbers were required for a formal vote. Previously, every box below the line needed to be numbered.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/counting/senate_count.htm">Senate system</a>, any candidate who has a quota is immediately elected, and their surplus is distributed. Major parties elect multiple senators by this method, as almost all of the top candidate’s surplus goes to the second candidate, and so on.</p>
<p>When there are no more surpluses to distribute, candidates are excluded from the count starting with the candidate with the smallest number of votes, and their preferences distributed. During this process, candidates that reach quota are elected, and their surpluses distributed. </p>
<p>With the current Senate system’s semi-optional preferential voting, there will often be two or more candidates short of a quota with all preferences finished. In this case, the candidates further ahead are elected.</p>
<h2>How this applies to Anning</h2>
<p>The whole <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-QLD.htm">One Nation ticket</a> had over 250,000 votes (9.2% or 1.19 quotas) in the Queensland Senate. Over 229,000 of these votes were above the line ticket votes, and virtually all the rest were personal votes for lead candidate Pauline Hanson.</p>
<p>Hanson was immediately elected, and her surplus was passed on to One Nation’s second candidate, Malcolm Roberts, who had just 77 below the line votes. In the race for the last seat, the Liberal Democrats started the preference phase of the count with 0.37 quotas, and Roberts (0.19 quotas) was also behind Nick Xenophon Team (0.27 quotas), Family First (0.25 quotas), Katter’s Australian Party (0.23 quotas) and Glenn Lazarus Team (0.22 quotas).</p>
<p>With nine candidates left, two of whom were certain to be elected (Labor’s Chris Ketter and the LNP’s Barry O'Sullivan), Roberts already had 0.45 quotas, thanks to voter-directed preferences from Australian Liberty Alliance (0.14 quotas) and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (0.14 quotas). At this point, Roberts was tied for the lead with Family First from the seven contenders for the last seat, and ahead of everyone else.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"761042071180279808"}"></div></p>
<p>With assistance from Glenn Lazarus Team and Katter’s Australian Party preferences, Roberts defeated Family First for the last seat by 0.78 quotas to 0.69.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-30-coalition-26-labor-9-greens-4-one-nation-3-nxt-4-others-63449">Final Senate results: 30 Coalition, 26 Labor, 9 Greens, 4 One Nation, 3 NXT, 4 Others</a>
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<p>When Roberts was <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-knocks-barnaby-joyce-out-in-dual-citizenship-case-as-byelection-looms-in-new-england-86470">disqualified by the High Court</a> in October 2017 over Section 44 issues, he was effectively replaced in the count by Fraser Anning, One Nation’s third candidate. That is how Anning won his seat despite earning just 19 personal below the line votes.</p>
<p>Although the new Senate system makes it easier to vote below the line, above the line votes <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2016/08/senate-reform-performance-review-part-2.html">were still over 90%</a> of all formal Senate votes in all jurisdictions except Tasmania and the ACT at the 2016 election, according to analyst Kevin Bonham. Only one candidate was elected against the party ordering of candidates on personal below the line votes: Labor’s Lisa Singh in Tasmania.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanian-senate-result-5-labor-4-liberals-2-greens-1-lambie-63117">Tasmanian Senate result: 5 Labor, 4 Liberals, 2 Greens, 1 Lambie</a>
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<p>Anning’s 19 personal votes and Roberts’ 77 are far fewer than those received by any other winning candidate in Queensland. The other 11 winners (five LNP, four Labor, one Green and Pauline Hanson) all received at least 1,000 personal votes. Prior to the election, there was no interest in any One Nation candidate other than Hanson.</p>
<h2>Can the major parties prevent the election of extreme candidates?</h2>
<p>In Queensland 2016, the major parties were not responsible for Roberts’ election. Both Labor’s fourth candidate, Ketter, and the LNP’s fifth candidate, O'Sullivan, started the preference phase of the count well short of a quota. O'Sullivan eventually made quota, but Ketter was elected with 0.97 quotas. O'Sullivan’s tiny surplus assisted Family First rather than Roberts.</p>
<p>In general, the total vote for the major parties has been declining in the past two decades, and as a result, their influence on who wins has been reduced. The combined share for the two major parties in the Queensland 2016 Senate was just 61.7%. By contrast, the last time One Nation was strong, gaining <a href="http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2001/2001senateqld.txt">10.0% of the Queensland Senate vote</a> in 2001, the total major party vote was 75.1%.</p>
<p>In the lower house, Labor will put One Nation behind the Coalition on its how to vote cards, but there has been <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/tony-abbott-once-argued-for-one-nation-to-be-preferenced-ahead-of-labor-and-the-greens/news-story/a305ed69e0b08ca3e763caf01b5427a1">some infighting</a> within the Coalition over whether to return this favour.</p>
<p>On March 28, Scott <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-28/one-nation-will-be-preferenced-lower-than-labor-pm-announces/10947720">Morrison announced</a> that the Liberals would preference Labor ahead of One Nation in all seats; this applies only to the Liberals, not the Nationals, and it is not clear what the Queensland LNP will do. There had been pressure on the Liberals following revelations that <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-james-ashby-rocks-a-few-boats-including-his-own-114324">One Nation solicited donations</a> from the US National Rifle Association.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-james-ashby-rocks-a-few-boats-including-his-own-114324">View from The Hill: James Ashby rocks a few boats, including his own</a>
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<p>One Nation won <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/mira/">one seat at the 2017 Queensland</a> election because the LNP preferenced it above Labor, so putting One Nation below Labor will assist Labor in any seats where One Nation is ahead of the Liberals.</p>
<p>In the Senate, neither major party is likely to put the other major party in its top six preferences for above the line voters. It is likely that, as far as vote recommendations go, both major parties will treat the other major party the same as One Nation in the Senate.</p>
<p>Even if the major parties placed the other major party in the top six preferences on their how to vote material, the follow the card rate was low in 2016. According to Bonham, about 30% of Coalition voters in the mainland states followed the card, 14% of Labor voters and 10% of Greens voters. No other party had a follow the card rate above 10%.</p>
<h2>Coalition wins majority at NSW election</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/results">ABC has called</a> all 93 lower house seats for the March 23 New South Wales election. The Coalition won 48 of the 93 seats (down six since the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_New_South_Wales_state_election">2015 election</a>), Labor won 36 seats (up two), the Greens three (steady), the Shooters three (up three) and independents three (up one). The Coalition will have a three-seat majority.</p>
<p>Seat changes are compared with the 2015 election results, and do not include Coalition losses in the Wagga Wagga and Orange byelections. If measured against the pre-election parliament, the Coalition lost four seats.</p>
<h2>Brexit delayed until at least April 12</h2>
<p>On March 21, a European leaders’ summit was held. Leaders of the 27 EU nations, not including the UK, agreed to delay the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47660019">date of Brexit</a> until April 12 (originally March 29). If UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal passes the House of Commons, Brexit would be delayed until May 22 to allow necessary legislation to pass.</p>
<p>European parliament elections will be held from May 23-26. If the UK were to participate in these elections, a longer extension could be given, but the UK must inform the European Commission of its intent to participate by April 12, hence the new deadline.</p>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/22/brexit-minus-eight-days-possibly/">The Poll Bludger</a> about Brexit on March 22. House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has ruled that May’s deal cannot be brought back to the House, but there is a workaround – if May had the votes. May’s deal was defeated by 149 votes on March 12, after a record 230-vote loss on January 15.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scott Morrison has announced the Liberals will preference One Nation below Labor at the federal election. But that is unlikely to make a substantial difference to the make-up of the parliament.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1142912019-03-27T03:28:22Z2019-03-27T03:28:22ZGuns, politics and policy: what can we learn from Al Jazeera’s undercover NRA sting?<p>Al Jazeera’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/sell-massacre-nra-playbook-revealed-190325111828105.html">undercover investigation</a> into the US National Rifle Association (NRA) has gained international headlines, partly because of One Nation political wannabes <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-james-ashby-rocks-a-few-boats-including-his-own-114324">drunkenly bragging</a> about how important they could be if only they had the money. </p>
<p>None of this should come as a surprise. You would have to be living under a rock to not know that the NRA has money, lobbies with it, and uses a standard set of PR tactics. Likewise, nobody has ever accused One Nation of being sophisticated or lacking grandiose delusions. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-james-ashby-rocks-a-few-boats-including-his-own-114324">View from The Hill: James Ashby rocks a few boats, including his own</a>
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<p>However, in a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-27/australian-gun-lobby-as-well-organised-as-nra-report-finds/10940384">carefully timed release to the ABC</a>, a report commissioned by Gun Control Australia and Getup! claims gun control in Australia is being eroded because of the gun lobby. </p>
<p>In reality, <a href="https://archive.homeaffairs.gov.au/crime/Documents/2017-national-firearms-agreement.pdf">Australia’s gun laws</a> remain virtually the same as when each state and territory introduced them more than 20 years ago. The last major change was in 2017, when all jurisdictions agreed to ban lever-action shotguns with a magazine capacity of more than five rounds of ammunition. Hardly “watering down”.</p>
<h2>What is really going on?</h2>
<p>Simple: when all we hear is guns, guns, guns, it means an election is on the horizon. It is not about guns, but politics.</p>
<p>Over the past few years, regular as clockwork, we have seen both major parties wheel out <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/18/john-howard-says-gun-control-at-risk-over-nsw-labor-deal-with-shooters-party">campaigns</a> around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/25/bill-shorten-asks-turnbull-to-intervene-and-prevent-changes-to-tasmanian-gun-laws">gun laws</a>, <a href="https://mehreen-faruqi.greensmps.org.au/articles/corrupting-influence-gun-lobby-out-water-down-gun-control-laws">aided and abetted</a> by the Greens. This occurred most recently in New South Wales, with the Liberal-Nationals running <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/john-howard-warns-nsw-shooters-election-deal-could-erode-gun-laws">attack ads</a> against the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. </p>
<p>The campaigns involve one or more of: releasing data obtained under Freedom of Information about <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-09/gun-ownership-in-nsw-growing-fast/10886380">how many guns are legally owned</a>; claiming gun laws are being (or have been, or will be) dangerously watered down if an opposing major party or rising minor party gains power; and making scary statements about a <a href="https://mehreen-faruqi.greensmps.org.au/articles/corrupting-influence-gun-lobby-out-water-down-gun-control-laws">well-funded gun lobby</a> (which is somehow all-powerful despite having changed little in over two decades). </p>
<p>The goal is to create fear, in the expectation this will translate to voting patterns. Politicians also like to have an “enemy” to rally against, to display their own virtues. At times, <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/4991175/shooters-concede-in-murray-by-election/">this tactic has worked</a>. It is a fair bet that politicians’ reactions to One Nation’s buffoonery reflect the hope that it will work again. </p>
<p>Based on past voting patterns, it is likely both major parties anticipate One Nation robbing them of votes in the upcoming federal election and are looking for ways to blunt that. The <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/one-nation-nra-gun-scandal-election-preference-deals/16a35ede-75eb-41ac-9de2-c18e2f231d1b">mudslinging over preferences</a> makes this clear.</p>
<p>If the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-coalition-scrapes-back-in-as-minor-parties-surge-but-delivering-on-promises-will-not-be-easy-113485">New South Wales state election</a> is anything to go by, though, voters seem to be ignoring gun campaigns and making their own decisions based on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/nsw-election-voting-closes-after-polls-suggest-tight-race/10911728">much bigger issues</a>. </p>
<p>However, there <em>is</em> a genuine danger arising from the Al Jazeera report. Unfortunately, we can now expect that anybody who suggests that effective firearm policy takes time and careful thought – and that it might not be as simple as it looks – will be denounced as an NRA shill. This is a silencing tactic that does absolutely nothing to improve the impoverished and tribalised nature of public debate in this country.</p>
<p>As New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern recently observed, firearm policy and legislation is a complex area. In addition to the technical aspects, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299380904_A_systematic_review_of_quantitative_evidence_about_the_impacts_of_Australian_legislative_reform_on_firearm_homicide">evidence</a> about <a href="https://academic.oup.com/epirev/article/38/1/140/2754868">what does</a> and does not work to reduce gun violence is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12103-011-9147-x">nowhere near as clear-cut</a> as it is sometimes made out to be. Well-intentioned measures can have <a href="https://www.acic.gov.au/about-crime/crime-types/illicit-firearms">unintended consequences</a>, which we should learn from and attempt to avoid.</p>
<p>It is not far-right madness to say that if a policy gains appeal primarily because of the emotions surrounding it, rather than on its merits, then it might not be an effective policy. It is not dangerous extremism to suggest that sound legislation comes from careful reflection and robust debate. It is not irrational to raise concerns about the negative outcomes that can arise when reacting is turned into a virtue and thinking into a vice. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-al-jazeeras-undercover-investigation-into-one-nation-overstep-the-mark-114288">Did Al Jazeera's undercover investigation into One Nation overstep the mark?</a>
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<p>In fact, a rational and careful approach, based on rigorous evaluation and calm, measured discussion, is the very foundation of evidence-based policy – a <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/102083-whatever-happened-to-evidence-based-policymaking/">much-touted model</a> of <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/85836/cs20090204.pdf">how to approach decision-making</a>. </p>
<p>Political failure to adopt evidence-based policy – despite politicians paying it lip service – is the subject of much scholarly teeth-gnashing, and for good reason. Some of the most ill-fated, costly and objectionable policies we have seen in Australia in recent years – in areas including immigration, Indigenous affairs, and youth violence, to give just three examples – have come as a result of ignoring evidence-based policy. We are quick to call these out, and rightly so. Why behave differently about guns? </p>
<p>If we are serious about wanting thoughtful and well-considered decisions, we cannot pick and choose the issues to which we apply reflection and analysis. And if we do want to pick and choose, then we cannot complain when politicians do the same with the issues we really want them to do better on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114291/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Samara McPhedran does not does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that might benefit from this article. She has received funding from various Australian and international government grant programs, including the Australian Research Council and Criminology Research Council, for a number of projects relating to homicide and suicide. She has been appointed to a number of advisory panels and committees, most recently as a member of the Queensland Ministerial Advisory Panel on Firearms, and as a previous member of the Commonwealth Firearms Advisory Council. She does not receive any financial remuneration or other reward for these activities. She has held past memberships with/volunteered for a range of not-for-profit firearm-related organisations, and women's advocacy groups, including a previous term as Chair of the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting (WiSH). She is currently affiliated with the Queensland Homicide Victims’ Support Group, serving on the Board of Directors. This is an unpaid position. She is not, and has never been, a member of any political party. The views expressed are those of the author alone.</span></em></p>Firearms policy is more complex than people often allow, and evidence about what works to reduce gun violence is also not clear-cut.Samara McPhedran, Director, Homicide Research Unit/Deputy Director, Violence Research and Prevention Program, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1143242019-03-26T17:58:46Z2019-03-26T17:58:46ZView from The Hill: James Ashby rocks a few boats, including his own<p>It’s appalling, sinister and faintly ludicrous that Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man James Ashby and former Queensland MP Steve Dickson played footsie with the American gun lobby, talking up One Nation’s book, trailing their coats for gun (or any other) gold.</p>
<p>That they fell victim to an <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/sell-massacre-nra-playbook-revealed-190325111828105.html">Al Jazeera</a> “sting”, trusting a man in an Akubra whom they now call a “spy”, is stunning, but sort of fitting. It was Ashby who was involved in a different kind of sting that brought down former speaker Peter Slipper.</p>
<p>Indeed, Ashby’s political career is a dark, rolling soap opera. Currently he’s banned from entering parliament house over a physical altercation with a former One Nation senator.</p>
<p>These two political cowboys are crying foul after being duped and publicly trashed by an extraordinarily elaborate Al Jazeera plot.</p>
<p>They’ve called in the police and ASIO and denounced political interference from a “Middle Eastern country”. Al Jazeera is based in the Middle Eastern nation of Qatar. They say they didn’t set out to seek money, let alone to weaken gun laws. They just wanted to tap into America’s National Rifle Association about campaigning techniques.</p>
<p>As for those damning recorded references to A$10 million, A$20 million, they’d “got on the sauce” - it’s what happens when there are “three men talking together and having scotches for about three or four hours”.</p>
<p>They might as well not bother with the spin and excuses. Claims about “context” are lame; they damned themselves most times they opened their mouths, and that was often.</p>
<p>The whole sordid episode, in long version, is there in pictures and audio. Ashby and Dickson grabbed the entree to the US gun advocates, and if the millions of dollars they fantasised about had materialised from somewhere they’d have grabbed them too. </p>
<p>Subject, no doubt, to what Hanson said - a couple of months later she voted to ban foreign donations.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-al-jazeeras-undercover-investigation-into-one-nation-overstep-the-mark-114288">Did Al Jazeera's undercover investigation into One Nation overstep the mark?</a>
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<p>Not that the dollars were a prospect. Just as, all those years ago in the 1970s, the money the Labor party sought from Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Baath party was never seen. It’s like that when you deal with dubious characters - or ones who are much too clever for you.</p>
<p>Ashby knew he was playing a dangerous game; as we hear him saying in the Al Jazeera documentary, “If it gets out, it’ll fucking rock the boat”. And Hanson, though invited, sensed this was a trip not to be on.</p>
<p>Well, boats have been rocked. Hanson’s for one. Scott Morrison’s for another. To say nothing of Ashby’s.</p>
<p>The extraordinary expose is a blow for the One Nation leader, days after her star recruit Mark Latham was elected to the NSW upper house. Hanson - who did not appear in public on Tuesday, reportedly feeling very unwell - and Ashby are joined at the hip. He is the political figure to whom she is closest, and she’s stood by him in previous embarrassments. She should, of course, immediately send him packing.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-wins-a-third-term-in-nsw-with-few-seats-changing-hands-113035">Coalition wins a third term in NSW with few seats changing hands</a>
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<p>How much the affair will hit the One Nation vote is a matter of conjecture. Logically, you’d expect it to hit One Nation substantially, especially coming after the New Zealand massacre. There has been much praise for the strength and value of Australia’s gun laws.</p>
<p>But I’m not sure logic is the best prism to use here. Hanson has a certain Teflon quality in the eyes of her supporters, who routinely have overlooked the chaos (and worse) around her shambolic party. </p>
<p>Many of those in One Nation heartland are protesting against perceived grievances; they may see this as a sideshow. Anyway, some potential One Nation voters would be quite in sync with the gun lobby. On Saturday in NSW, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers picked up two more seats.</p>
<p>The Ashby-Dickson debacle complicates Scott Morrison’s struggle in handling what were already awkward questions about his attitude to preferencing One Nation.</p>
<p>Since the Christchurch killings Morrison has been on the barbed wire fence when repeatedly pressed on whether the Coalition should or would put One Nation last on how-to-vote cards.</p>
<p>In the Coalition this is another North-South issue, like coal and climate change. Southern Liberals insist One Nation should be at the bottom of voting tickets. Cabinet Minister Kelly O'Dwyer (retiring from the Melbourne seat of Higgins) said on Tuesday, “I can’t see any reason why One Nation wouldn’t be preferenced last”. </p>
<p>In Queensland it’s another story. Nationals Ken O'Dowd on Monday said One Nation should be above Greens and ALP.</p>
<p>In general, the preference debate is encouraging the Coalition to demonise the Greens even more than usual, with some in the government painting them as being as bad as, or worse than, One Nation.</p>
<p>Morrison initially used his favourite look-over-there tactic, trying to fend off the questions by saying there would be no preference deal with One Nation. That didn’t wash. No one ever thought there would be a “deal” (quite apart from remembering the Liberals’ bad experience in the Western Australian election, when they did a deal). </p>
<p>The issue is where the Liberals and Nationals decide to put One Nation on their tickets, regardless of what One Nation does with its preferences.</p>
<p>As the preference debate has raged, some are urging Morrison to take John Howard’s “principled” position. Howard says One Nation should be placed last. Talk of Howard’s “principle” overlooks that he was dragged to this position. He was considering to accept a seat-by-seat approach, until it became untenable. </p>
<p>In the wake of the Al Jazeera revelations, Morrison on Tuesday hopped into One Nation while making a direct appeal to those inclined to vote for it.</p>
<p>It was “abhorrent” that its officials “basically sought to sell Australia’s gun laws to the highest bidders, to a foreign buyer,” Morrison said.</p>
<p>He went on: “I’m not interested in getting One Nation’s preferences, I am interested in getting their primary vote”. The answer to the grievances of these votes “is not One Nation, the answer is not to go to those extremes. The answer is the Liberal and National Parties”.</p>
<p>But that is not the answer to the preference question. And on that Morrison won’t be drawn. It’s a matter for closer to the election, he says, when all the candidates can be seen. (One convenient diversionary line is: what about if there are Fraser Anning candidates?) </p>
<p>The signs are that come the election, the Coalition preference picture will likely be a patchwork, with One Nation being treated benignly at least in parts of Queensland. Possibly Morrison couldn’t stop that if he wanted to; probably he doesn’t want to.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The extraordinary expose is a blow for the One Nation leader and complicates Scott Morrison’s struggle in handling what were already awkward questions about his attitude to preferencing One Nation.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.